Author Topic: The Really Big One  (Read 17495 times)

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Offline daftandbarmy

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The Really Big One
« on: July 13, 2015, 16:42:48 »
So, how are we doing with respect to earthquake preparedness CF-wise?



The Really Big One

An earthquake will destroy a sizable portion of the coastal Northwest. The question is when.

When the 2011 earthquake and tsunami struck Tohoku, Japan, Chris Goldfinger was two hundred miles away, in the city of Kashiwa, at an international meeting on seismology. As the shaking started, everyone in the room began to laugh. Earthquakes are common in Japan—that one was the third of the week—and the participants were, after all, at a seismology conference. Then everyone in the room checked the time.
Seismologists know that how long an earthquake lasts is a decent proxy for its magnitude. The 1989 earthquake in Loma Prieta, California, which killed sixty-three people and caused six billion dollars’ worth of damage, lasted about fifteen seconds and had a magnitude of 6.9. A thirty-second earthquake generally has a magnitude in the mid-sevens. A minute-long quake is in the high sevens, a two-minute quake has entered the eights, and a three-minute quake is in the high eights. By four minutes, an earthquake has hit magnitude 9.0.
When Goldfinger looked at his watch, it was quarter to three. The conference was wrapping up for the day. He was thinking about sushi. The speaker at the lectern was wondering if he should carry on with his talk. The earthquake was not particularly strong. Then it ticked past the sixty-second mark, making it longer than the others that week. The shaking intensified. The seats in the conference room were small plastic desks with wheels. Goldfinger, who is tall and solidly built, thought, No way am I crouching under one of those for cover. At a minute and a half, everyone in the room got up and went outside.
It was March. There was a chill in the air, and snow flurries, but no snow on the ground. Nor, from the feel of it, was there ground on the ground. The earth snapped and popped and rippled. It was, Goldfinger thought, like driving through rocky terrain in a vehicle with no shocks, if both the vehicle and the terrain were also on a raft in high seas. The quake passed the two-minute mark. The trees, still hung with the previous autumn’s dead leaves, were making a strange rattling sound. The flagpole atop the building he and his colleagues had just vacated was whipping through an arc of forty degrees. The building itself was base-isolated, a seismic-safety technology in which the body of a structure rests on movable bearings rather than directly on its foundation. Goldfinger lurched over to take a look. The base was lurching, too, back and forth a foot at a time, digging a trench in the yard. He thought better of it, and lurched away. His watch swept past the three-minute mark and kept going.
Oh, crap, Goldfinger thought, although not in dread, at first: in amazement. For decades, seismologists had believed that Japan could not experience an earthquake stronger than magnitude 8.4. In 2005, however, at a conference in Hokudan, a Japanese geologist named Yasutaka Ikeda had argued that the nation should expect a magnitude 9.0 in the near future—with catastrophic consequences, because Japan’s famous earthquake-and-tsunami preparedness, including the height of its sea walls, was based on incorrect science. The presentation was met with polite applause and thereafter largely ignored. Now, Goldfinger realized as the shaking hit the four-minute mark, the planet was proving the Japanese Cassandra right.
For a moment, that was pretty cool: a real-time revolution in earthquake science. Almost immediately, though, it became extremely uncool, because Goldfinger and every other seismologist standing outside in Kashiwa knew what was coming. One of them pulled out a cell phone and started streaming videos from the Japanese broadcasting station NHK, shot by helicopters that had flown out to sea soon after the shaking started. Thirty minutes after Goldfinger first stepped outside, he watched the tsunami roll in, in real time, on a two-inch screen.
In the end, the magnitude-9.0 Tohoku earthquake and subsequent tsunami killed more than eighteen thousand people, devastated northeast Japan, triggered the meltdown at the Fukushima power plant, and cost an estimated two hundred and twenty billion dollars. The shaking earlier in the week turned out to be the foreshocks of the largest earthquake in the nation’s recorded history. But for Chris Goldfinger, a paleoseismologist at Oregon State University and one of the world’s leading experts on a little-known fault line, the main quake was itself a kind of foreshock: a preview of another earthquake still to come.
Most people in the United States know just one fault line by name: the San Andreas, which runs nearly the length of California and is perpetually rumored to be on the verge of unleashing “the big one.” That rumor is misleading, no matter what the San Andreas ever does. Every fault line has an upper limit to its potency, determined by its length and width, and by how far it can slip. For the San Andreas, one of the most extensively studied and best understood fault lines in the world, that upper limit is roughly an 8.2—a powerful earthquake, but, because the Richter scale is logarithmic, only six per cent as strong as the 2011 event in Japan.
Just north of the San Andreas, however, lies another fault line. Known as the Cascadia subduction zone, it runs for seven hundred miles off the coast of the Pacific Northwest, beginning near Cape Mendocino, California, continuing along Oregon and Washington, and terminating around Vancouver Island, Canada. The “Cascadia” part of its name comes from the Cascade Range, a chain of volcanic mountains that follow the same course a hundred or so miles inland. The “subduction zone” part refers to a region of the planet where one tectonic plate is sliding underneath (subducting) another. Tectonic plates are those slabs of mantle and crust that, in their epochs-long drift, rearrange the earth’s continents and oceans. Most of the time, their movement is slow, harmless, and all but undetectable. Occasionally, at the borders where they meet, it is not.

http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/07/20/the-really-big-one?mbid=social_facebook
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Offline Old Sweat

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Re: The Really Big One
« Reply #1 on: July 13, 2015, 16:55:13 »
A couple of years before I retired, I was in the Land Plans shop in J3 Plans. Every few weeks I would trundle off to a earthquake preparedness meeting at Emergency Preparedness Canada. This organization, which had grandiose dreams of becoming a wing of the PCO, was populated with the greatest collection of incompetents and bumblers I had ever seen. They also were outright contemptuous of DND and the CF. One of their mantras was that the Canadian people would never accept troops in uniform in formed bodies doing disaster relief. (This was before the Red River flood, the ice storm and various forest fires.) Their solution was to use the forces in civvies as a manpower pool under their direction. One of their major areas of concern was to ensure air photos were taken of the prisons in the lower mainland after the earthquake to see if the prisoners had escaped, thereby confirming their dubious grip on reality.

They finally managed to annoy enough people in power to loose their independent status and were put under Bob Fowler at DND. I don't know if things have improved, but if I were you, I would prepare for a survivalist life style.

Offline mariomike

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Re: The Really Big One
« Reply #2 on: July 13, 2015, 17:12:51 »
"An earthquake will destroy a sizable portion of the coastal Northwest."

So, how are we doing with respect to earthquake preparedness CF-wise?

I don't know about CF-wise, but ( since this is the Emergency Services forum ), if it's out west, I imagine they would send HU-SAR Task Force One, based out of Vancouver:
http://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/rsrcs/pblctns/rbn-srch-rsc/index-eng.aspx
« Last Edit: July 13, 2015, 17:17:46 by mariomike »

Offline Chris Pook

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Re: The Really Big One
« Reply #3 on: July 13, 2015, 17:23:36 »
"An earthquake will destroy a sizable portion of the coastal Northwest."

I don't know about CF-wise, but ( since this is the Emergency Services forum ), if it's out west, I imagine they would send HU-SAR Task Force One, based out of Vancouver:
http://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/rsrcs/pblctns/rbn-srch-rsc/index-eng.aspx

Seems reasonable.  Why wouldn't you put your earthquake response team right  on top of the subduction/liquefaction/tsunami zone? 

See, me, not being a professional and all, might have convinced to put it in a safe area. Like Edmonton.
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Offline mariomike

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Re: The Really Big One
« Reply #4 on: July 13, 2015, 17:26:40 »
See, me, not being a professional and all, might have convinced to put it in a safe area. Like Edmonton.

If TF-1 gets wiped out, they can respond TF-2 based out of Calgary:
http://www.cantf2.com/#about

Offline Chris Pook

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Re: The Really Big One
« Reply #5 on: July 13, 2015, 17:30:07 »
See the trouble sarcasm can get you into? 

Thanks MM.

On the other hand I learned stuff.
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Offline mariomike

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Re: The Really Big One
« Reply #6 on: July 13, 2015, 17:31:08 »
 :)

Offline Underway

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Re: The Really Big One
« Reply #7 on: July 13, 2015, 17:36:21 »
So, how are we doing with respect to earthquake preparedness CF-wise?

When I was a PAT in 2001 I got to be a casualty for the Base Ops response team training for an earthquake in Esquimalt.  Beside every parking lot and parade square there were large sea cans with a big E on the side of them.  They were the muster point for earthquakes and the sea cans contained a large amount of equipment ranging from portable toilets, generators, water, hard hats, and body bags.  There were teams from different buildings who were trained in light urban rescue.  Haven't been to the west coast in a while but last time I was there the E boxes still existed.

Interestingly enough the Rattle in Seattle happened during my time there.  And the base responded...meh  ok.  Even us in Base Ops thought it was a loud truck backing up for a couple seconds and then it was over.  That caused a review of the earthquake response with all the major players in BC.  Victoria was going to be aided by rescue teams from the mainland who would launch from the main ferry terminal.  They neglected to realize that was only if Vancouver wasn't hit and that the ferry terminal would be above water (which it won't as its built on fill which would liquidize fairly quickly).  But the military guys pointed that out to them....truth to power and all that.... 

As for the rest of the country responding if the big one comes...well, Vancouver is under water.  Geological evidence suggests that Vancouver was hit by a huge tsunami.  The first nations who lived there when Europeans showed up did not live in certain areas of the river basin because of the taboo (and legends that the water would come back).  A disaster of that magnitude would stretch the resources of the entire country. 

However our equipment is far better for disaster relief of Vancouver now than it was back then.  We have new Chinooks, SuperHercs, C-17's all for lift.  That's critical to get supplies and equipment in to clear up ports and airfields to start the relief effort.  Heavy Urban Rescue is a provincial responsibility now IIRC so the best the military can do is DART, medical support, emergency infrastructure and able bodies who want to help.

But if the big one comes, no one is ready, we'll have to make due as best we can.  How the hell can you really be ready for that kind of disaster?
« Last Edit: July 13, 2015, 18:13:26 by Underway »

Offline mariomike

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Re: The Really Big One
« Reply #8 on: July 13, 2015, 17:53:30 »
Heavy Urban Rescue is a provincial responsibility now IIRC < snip >

Two of Canada's four HUSAR teams are municipal ( Vancouver and Toronto. ) CAN-TF2 ( Alberta ) and CAN-TF4 ( Manitoba ) are operated by provinces.
CAN-TF5 ( Atlantic ) no longer exists. ( Not sure if it ever really did? ) They have reverted to a purely regional role under the mandate of Halifax Emergency Services.
Only four ( Vancouver, Alberta, Manitoba and Toronto ) of  the planned eight HUSAR teams were successfully established.

"CAN-TF3 is a joint unit of Toronto Fire Services, Toronto Police Service and Toronto Paramedic Services created to deal with search and rescue operations in the City of Toronto. The unit can respond to situations outside of the city, and offer provincial, national, as well as international assistance."
http://torontoparamedicservices.ca/special-units-teams/heavy-urban-search-and-rescue/

HUSAR in detail:
http://web.archive.org/web/20131021071314/http://www.toronto.ca/wes/techservices/oem/husar/pdf/husar-history-tema-structure-and-training-profile.pdf


« Last Edit: July 13, 2015, 20:01:07 by mariomike »

Offline cupper

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Re: The Really Big One
« Reply #9 on: July 13, 2015, 19:33:03 »
Smart money would be to start buying up ocean front property in the mountains. Even if the big one doesn't come, global warming with get there soon enough. >:D
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Offline quadrapiper

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Re: The Really Big One
« Reply #10 on: July 13, 2015, 21:42:29 »
...who would launch from the main ferry terminal.  They neglected to realize that was only if Vancouver wasn't hit and that the ferry terminal would be above water (which it won't as its built on fill which would liquidize fairly quickly).
Civil defense role for the beach-capable Ro-Ro commercial hulls that you see out here?

Or suggestive of a need for developing/buying/trialling some sort of insta-ramp capability, sufficient at least to bridge out to some of the smaller ferries? Ignore that last if that's already in the Engineering toolkit.

Offline daftandbarmy

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Re: The Really Big One
« Reply #11 on: July 14, 2015, 02:22:57 »
We'll likely need earthquake proofed hospitals, at least, to help deal with the thousands of casualties.

oops... we don't have any  ::)
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Offline medicineman

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Re: The Really Big One
« Reply #12 on: July 14, 2015, 08:22:30 »
We'll likely need earthquake proofed hospitals, at least, to help deal with the thousands of casualties.

oops... we don't have any  ::)

More like ones built on pontoons, since the Vic General and the Jube will be under water if a tsunami hit...as well as a lot of the lower mainland ones around Vancouver.

MM
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Offline Staff Weenie

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Re: The Really Big One
« Reply #13 on: July 14, 2015, 08:37:20 »
About a decade ago, I was part of a month long planning team that used a CONPLAN as the basis to wargame one of Canada's Force Planning Scenarios.  We used a worst case scenario, and the most accurate data we could get from Geophysicists. The prediction was catastrophic (I did say worst case scenario) - most of Richmond under ~3' or more of water.  The airport gone, ferry terminal gone, and rail and road links to the east severed by rock slides.  The Kitsilano dam ruptures, the fuel tank farm in the harbour will fail, and burn, and there will also be fires, toxic releases, etc.  Most hospitals will sustain moderate to major damage, depending on the degree of upgrading they've done.  The bridges had a chance of holding up due to their upgrading. Casualty estimates in the 1,000's for the dead, and 60,000 or more wounded.  Now....get everything we can spare together, and get it into an isolated city.....

Offline George Wallace

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Re: The Really Big One
« Reply #14 on: July 14, 2015, 08:41:53 »
About a decade ago, I was part of a month long planning team that used a CONPLAN as the basis to wargame one of Canada's Force Planning Scenarios.  We used a worst case scenario, and the most accurate data we could get from Geophysicists. The prediction was catastrophic (I did say worst case scenario) - most of Richmond under ~3' or more of water.  The airport gone, ferry terminal gone, and rail and road links to the east severed by rock slides.  The Kitsilano dam ruptures, the fuel tank farm in the harbour will fail, and burn, and there will also be fires, toxic releases, etc.  Most hospitals will sustain moderate to major damage, depending on the degree of upgrading they've done.  The bridges had a chance of holding up due to their upgrading. Casualty estimates in the 1,000's for the dead, and 60,000 or more wounded.  Now....get everything we can spare together, and get it into an isolated city.....

No airport, No C-17s.  How long would it take today's complete fleet of Chinooks to fly cross country to assist?  You picked a doozie of a scenario, even for today.
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Offline Staff Weenie

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Re: The Really Big One
« Reply #15 on: July 14, 2015, 08:48:27 »
The projections showed that Esquimalt had a reasonable chance of remaining functional, as did the Victoria airport.  Our option was to fly everything in to Victoria, commandeer anything that could float, and head for Vancouver.

I had a great laugh over the DS direction that the Fd Hosp (and in fact all HSS) was there to support the CAF capability only.  I told them to visualize setting up a Fd Hosp in a large flat area, putting a big Red Cross on the top, and then turning away injured Canadian citizens in need.....how long would it be before the riots began?

Offline Chris Pook

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Re: The Really Big One
« Reply #16 on: July 14, 2015, 10:24:42 »
More like ones built on pontoons, since the Vic General and the Jube will be under water if a tsunami hit...as well as a lot of the lower mainland ones around Vancouver.

MM

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Offline Ostrozac

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Re: The Really Big One
« Reply #17 on: July 14, 2015, 11:36:23 »
Well, in the event that Canada's third largest city is basically destroyed, it seems like a pretty good time to start calling allies. Is Lewis-McChord in Washington likely to be outside of the earthquake affected area? I Corps has Blackhawks and Chinooks, and they are closer to Vancouver than Edmonton or Petawawa. Or is the "Big One" in the lower mainland likely to also be the "Big One" along the entire US pacific coast, therefore tying up any potential US assistance? My knowledge of plate tectonics is limited.

Offline daftandbarmy

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Re: The Really Big One
« Reply #18 on: July 14, 2015, 12:00:23 »
Well, in the event that Canada's third largest city is basically destroyed, it seems like a pretty good time to start calling allies. Is Lewis-McChord in Washington likely to be outside of the earthquake affected area? I Corps has Blackhawks and Chinooks, and they are closer to Vancouver than Edmonton or Petawawa. Or is the "Big One" in the lower mainland likely to also be the "Big One" along the entire US pacific coast, therefore tying up any potential US assistance? My knowledge of plate tectonics is limited.

It depends, of course, but everyone in this area is likely to be dead, injured or a refugee of some kind if the 'really big one' hits. The best solution is to develop strong inter-community sustainment networks and, of course, these are either hopelessly inadequate or non-existent in la la Land.

That reminds me, I'd better stock up on razor wire and hazmat tape  ;D
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Offline Oldgateboatdriver

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Re: The Really Big One
« Reply #19 on: July 14, 2015, 12:04:38 »
If Vancouver gets its "big one", it won't necessarily be the "big one" all the way down the US coast to Mexico. However, the plate involved does include all of Washington state coastal area and all the way down to Portland Oregon. So Portland - some damage - Seattle, Tacoma and most smaller places in Washington state - serious damage - but none as bas a Vancouver because, unlike Vancouver, these towns are not built over silt deposit from the Fraser river delta. The Americans will take care of their own first.


Offline FSTO

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Re: The Really Big One
« Reply #20 on: July 14, 2015, 13:29:15 »
More like ones built on pontoons, since the Vic General and the Jube will be under water if a tsunami hit...as well as a lot of the lower mainland ones around Vancouver.

MM

Studies say that the threat of a Tsunami for Victoria/Vancouver are quite low.
http://www.sfu.ca/cnhr/papers/Clague%20et%20al.%20Natural%20Hazards%202003.pdf


Offline Underway

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Re: The Really Big One
« Reply #21 on: July 14, 2015, 13:34:29 »
No airport, No C-17s.  How long would it take today's complete fleet of Chinooks to fly cross country to assist?  You picked a doozie of a scenario, even for today.

Don't need an airstrip.  Just need a clear highway.  There will be plenty of places in BC that can act as a staging area around Vancouver that probably wouldn't be hit as hard.  It's not like the C-17 needs a perfect place to land.

Offline dapaterson

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Re: The Really Big One
« Reply #22 on: July 14, 2015, 13:53:43 »
Except the carbon footprint of such an aircraft is huge, and the left coast won't let a little thing like a massive humanitarian disaster dissuade them from their left coast mentality.   :P
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Offline Bearpaw

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Re: The Really Big One
« Reply #23 on: July 14, 2015, 14:37:36 »

The only historical earthquake that might be used as a model for the
"Big One" is the 1960 magnitude 9.5 quake in Chile.  Our "Big One" is
likely to be in the 9.0 to 9.8 range.  An American scientist has done excellent
work in studies of past quakes on the Washington-BC coasts in particular the
effects of the resulting tsunami---there was a recent documentary about this on TV.

The real unknown in this is where the rock rupture takes place---this has huge consequences for
the p-wave, s-wave structure of the quake----the worst building damage takes place from the
s-wave shaking----the p-wave damage could be severe if the break-zone is almost directly under Vancouver.
s-wave shaking is from side to side and forward and backward (shear wave)
p-wave shaking is up and down(pressure wave).

Vancouver Airport will be totally destroyed and probably flooded as well.  Richmond, Delta,
UBC, .... will be severely or totally destroyed by ground fluidization.

All bridges on the Fraser River to Mission will likely be not useable or destroyed---hopefully the
Mission bridge will survive----the Bridal Falls bridge is likely to survive.

All highways leading in to Hope will have several rock-slides blocking them---count on 2 weeks to clear.
The railways in Fraser Canyon likely have several blockages by rock-slides as well---these may be quicker
to clear.

Abbotsford International Airport should have some runway damage---this is the only C-17 capable runway
in the lower mainland that is likely to be in near-operable state after the quake.

What I would recommend for positioned equipment and materials at Abbotsford airport would be

0) equipment to repair runways,...
1) 3 or 4 fully equipped field hospitals
2) 10 mobile ROWPU and associated equipment filters,...
3) lots of pharmaceuticals, body-bags
4) at least 5,000,000 L of fuel for helicopters, diesels,... in
   tanks at most 250,000L
5) at least 100 10-ton trucks with trailers
6) bridging equipment sufficient for 2 crossings of Fraser
7) loaders, bulldozers
8) tents, food,... for at least a brigade or responders

I would also have several LCM stationed somewhere on the coast.

For planning purposes, one should be thinking of 5 to 10 times the damage in Haiti---the needs
will be similar except for scale.

The US is likely to be tied up with their own severe problems---Seattle, Tacoma, Bellingham,...
Portland---their situation could well be worse than Vancouver and Victoria.

Bearpaw (from Surrey BC)

Offline daftandbarmy

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Re: The Really Big One
« Reply #24 on: July 14, 2015, 14:40:31 »
Bearpaw (from Surrey BC)

Good point: we should build a wall around Surrey now to contain all the looters after the quake ;D
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Offline Blackadder1916

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Re: The Really Big One
« Reply #25 on: July 14, 2015, 14:46:42 »
. . . Casualty estimates in the 1,000's for the dead, and 60,000 or more wounded.  .....

That few.  I would have guesstimated that the death toll would be much higher and the injured much lower, more in-line with the Japanese earthquake/tsunami of 2011.  Dead/missing (the vast majority due to the tsunami i.e. drowning) were about three times higher than those reported injured - ~19,000 vice ~6000.  I'm assuming that the injured included only those whose injuries required medical attention and hospitalization (however brief).  But then the area most directly affected was (relatively in Japanese terms) not highly populated.  However, the 1995 Kobe earthquake had a more traditional death/injured ratio at 6.4k dead to 27k injured, but that was dry.
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Offline Bearpaw

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Re: The Really Big One
« Reply #26 on: July 14, 2015, 15:24:38 »
The looting could be quite a problem here----one can hear gunshots at least once a week here!

Most people here are completely unprepared for even the smallest emergency.

Bearpaw

Offline Staff Weenie

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Re: The Really Big One
« Reply #27 on: July 14, 2015, 15:30:45 »
Blackadder - As you know, there's so many variable that impact the number of fatalities and injuries - time of day, day of the week, season, etc.  I think they took a midrange. Who knows - in the past decade, they may have revised this upwards, based upon major quakes around the world.

You would have liked the Pandemic Influenza planning numbers - using known variables from the 1918 pandemic for epidemiological modelling, it was estimated that it would kill approx 300,000 across Canada in the first 45 days......

Offline Blackadder1916

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Re: The Really Big One
« Reply #28 on: July 14, 2015, 15:49:53 »
You would have liked the Pandemic Influenza planning numbers - using known variables from the 1918 pandemic for epidemiological modelling, it was estimated that it would kill approx 300,000 across Canada in the first 45 days......

Much like the estimated casualty rate we saw for Desert Storm that factored in use of chemical and biological weapons by the Iraqis.
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Re: The Really Big One
« Reply #29 on: July 14, 2015, 16:59:48 »
If Seattle is not hit bad, I expect US troops on the ground in 48hrs, if it is, I don’t expect a significant number to be in action for 5-6 days.

I don’t count on the CF much, any major hit is going to damage the highways into the lower mainland, first they will have to get through that. Then they will have to get across the Fraser, even if the bridges are standing, likely they will be closed to vehicle traffic till they can be inspected. So any bridge and rafting equipment is sucked up there. The Chinooks will be a big boost, the local airports will be shut, with likely Abbotsford coming back online first and being the main focal point of inbound air relief.

Self rescue, help and self-support food & water wise for 1-2 weeks will be the order of the day for most people. I have recommended in training exercises that a regional crisis centre either in Comox or Victoria hire every small tug and barge contractor to sail to Vancouver with some heavy equipment, they can quickly construct loading bulkheads along the shore and create a transportation network across the waterways in 24 hrs upon arrival. They will need support back up consisting of floating accommodations and fuel barges. Once this is in place, people can return home and deal with their family issues (personally I am stealing a dinghy and rowing to the Northshore). The USN/Marines will arrive and help with the waterside and moving rescue and support equipment in. I suspect another week after setup for almost everyone to have some access to basic shelter, food and  water.

 

The big issue is that in many countries you can give people, flour, oil, beans and some spices and in a few hours they will have bread. Here most people would have no idea what to do with them and will need packaged meal stuff to survive on.

I recommend getting to know your neighbours and having a good idea of everyone needs. You will need to band together, to do rescue, basic first aid, shelter and food gathering. You will also need to be together to provide security, as the dirtbags that live around you who have not prepared will want what you have. As they say civilization is only about 3 meals deep. I have decent relationships with most of the people around us and no doubt we will work together. I try to have about 30 days worth of food, generally b having about 3 of everything we need, plus a long term store of food int eh garage, with stoves, tents and fuel there. Also bought a water purifier when the 15 gallons I have stored gets used.

Every training exercise I have been part of has been an exercise in wishful thinking. Everyone thinks of organizing HQ and few think about what resources they will use, where to get them and how to use them.

Offline MilEME09

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Relevant due to highlighting the issues in the PRes.

Quote
Six-month military operation would follow major B.C. earthquake

The odds are against a serious earthquake on the Pacific Coast, but not as much as we would like – a military plan for dealing with the aftermath assesses the chance of a significant quake in the next 10 years as 4.5 per cent for Victoria, and 2.5 per cent for Vancouver.

“Operation Panorama,” the military response to a Pacific Coast earthquake, would be a six-month operation and could involve a mandatory callout of reservists, similar to what would happen in a major war, the plan says.

The 219-page plan for Operation Panorama was released to Global News under access-to-information laws.

    After a major Pacific Coast quake, “the casualty level is expected to be very high,” the plan says.

    “It is highly likely that such a catastrophic earthquake would quickly overload the resources of provincial and municipal authorities … it will take days to weeks to restore critical infrastructure.”

The quake could damage bridges and cause landslides that would cut Vancouver off from other parts of the country, the report says.

“An earthquake presents a ‘come as you are’ scenario,” the plan says. Planners anticipate a range of needs the military could meet, including providing mobile kitchens, water purification, generators, helicopters, tents to house refugees, ships and recovery of bodies.

Troops will start the operation without weapons, but that could change if police ask for armed support, the plan says. Training for, or conducting, “crowd confrontation operations” will not happen without the chief of defence staff’s approval.

A section of the plan written by legal officers cautions commanders to be cautious about civilian police requests for armed assistance, especially for help from military police.

“Although requests for military police assistance may come from civilian police, such requests should, wherever practical, be denied,” the plan says.

However, despite the apocalyptic scenario a major quake would present, the plan largely assumes that full- and part-time military forces already in B.C. can handle the situation, and refers only in passing to the possibility that they may be affected by the same disaster that’s affected everybody else.

Whether that’s realistic depends on how serious the quake is, says Paul Crober, a retired colonel who went on to have several senior roles in emergency planning in B.C..

After a big earthquake “the reserve brigade in Vancouver will be less capable to do things, through no fault of their own,” he said. “If they’re not affected, they’ll move on to it. If they are affected, they’ll do what they can.”

There hasn’t been a large-scale regular army presence in B.C. since the controversial closure of CFB Chilliwack in the 1990s. That may have a silver lining in this case, since the regular troops who were moved to Edmonton at that time won’t become disaster victims themselves, Crober says.

“That’s why the army would say ‘Well, it’s bad that we have to move out of B.C., but from a purely earthquake perspective and nothing else, it’s not a bad thing, in that their capabilities remain unaffected, and they can get back in, if road, rail and ports are available to accept them.’”

On the other hand, it means that part-time reservists are the only force on the B.C. mainland that can immediately respond to a major emergency.

The plan also flags a long-standing issue for the reserves — part-time soldiers, often in senior roles, who are first responders in their civilian jobs. In a civil emergency, it’s not clear whether they would be available to the military. (The plan assumes they won’t be.)

    “Those folks tend to make good soldiers, and they do rise up,” says John Selkirk, a retired lieutenant-colonel who heads Reserves 2000, a lobby group for the army reserves.

    “But it is a problem. On the other hand, I don’t think it’s that many. I would hazard a guess that the percentage of first responders is probably no more than five or 10 per cent.”

“It can be an issue,” Crober said. Defence Minister Harjit Sajjan, he points out, was a detective with the Vancouver police at the same time that he ran an army reserve unit.

“In an emergency, his first job would have been to show up at the police force, when he was commanding officer of the British Columbia Regiment.”

Some police forces, like the RCMP and the Ontario Provincial Police, have in the past barred officers from being reservists for this reason, Crober says.

The plan also doesn’t mention any role for supplementary reservists, people on a list of trained ex-soldiers who, when they left the military, said they’d be available in an emergency.

This capability has been neglected, Selkirk says.

“This is a criminally negligent thing that’s happened,” he charges. “They let that thing absolutely slide. They just won’t put any effort into keeping it up.”

Three staging areas have been chosen for Operation Panorama, one on Vancouver Island, one on the Lower Mainland and another in the southern interior. Their locations were censored in the documents Global News received under a provision of access-to-information law that bars the release of information that “could reasonably be expected to be injurious to … the defence of Canada.”

On the whole, the document is very lightly censored. Defence officials blocked the release of some phone numbers and radio frequencies, and descriptions of three routes across British Columbia. Also, following a quake a senior army reserve commander in Vancouver is supposed to assess something, but what he is supposed to assess has been censored.

In the meantime, Selkirk says, reserve units don’t have the vehicles and equipment they would need to respond after an earthquake.

“They’ll do what they can,” he said. “The problem is that the army has failed to keep the reserve units with a sufficient stock of things that they would need in those emergencies. They don’t have enough trucks. Right now they don’t even have radios. Units are using their own cellphones when they have to go out and do a tactical exercise somewhere, but in an earthquake half of the cell towers would fall down.”

The federal auditor general raised the same concern last year, saying that reservists called out for domestic missions, like flood control, “did not always have access to key equipment … we found many instances of key equipment lacking, such as reconnaissance vehicles, command posts, and communications equipment.”

“You could be totally cut off from the rest of Canada, even by air, if the runways are damaged,” Selkirk said. “It could take a few days to get stuff there. If reserve units held stocks of what they might need, it would be a lot better.”

The defence department did not respond to questions we filed with them on Monday morning. We asked about:

    How many reservists in B.C. work as civilian emergency responders
    The lack of a role for supplementary reservists in Operation Panorama
    Whether it is feasible for forces now in B.C. to have a leadership role in the aftermath of an earthquake if they’re also affected by the earthquake


http://globalnews.ca/news/3241545/six-month-military-operation-would-follow-major-b-c-earthquake/

Operation Panorama link from the article: https://shawglobalnews.files.wordpress.com/2017/02/a-2016-00922.pdf

Quote
“The problem is that the army has failed to keep the reserve units with a sufficient stock of things that they would need in those emergencies. They don’t have enough trucks. Right now they don’t even have radios. Units are using their own cellphones when they have to go out and do a tactical exercise somewhere, but in an earthquake half of the cell towers would fall down.”

I've said it before on here that this is the new reality of the PRes, the fact that all it would take is an earthquake and the scattered PRes of BC would be cut off from higher HQ, or even attempting to notify troops should worry people.
"We are called a Battalion, Authorized to be company strength, parade as a platoon, Operating as a section"

Offline Rifleman62

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Cut from HQ? Less reports and returns :crybaby:

I have always wondered how you would get the vehs/eqpt across the Rockies.
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Offline MilEME09

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Cut from HQ? Less reports and returns :crybaby:

I have always wondered how you would get the vehs/eqpt across the Rockies.

I imagine with the amount of damage to bridges and such, you'd be bringing vehicles in via chinook till engineers can get an airport up to get hurc and C-17's in.
"We are called a Battalion, Authorized to be company strength, parade as a platoon, Operating as a section"

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Lead me, follow me or get the hell out of my way

Offline Chris Pook

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I imagine with the amount of damage to bridges and such, you'd be bringing vehicles in via chinook till engineers can get an airport up to get hurc and C-17's in.

Might want some more Chinooks stationed at Edmonton then.  With a larger Air Reserve component?
"Wyrd bið ful aræd"

Offline MilEME09

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Might want some more Chinooks stationed at Edmonton then.  With a larger Air Reserve component?

I had to actually look up about the AirRes because i've never met an airforce reservist. I think if we created a larger edmonton based airforce component, we would want to stand back up 18 Wing Edmonton, with a larger res heavy squadron.
"We are called a Battalion, Authorized to be company strength, parade as a platoon, Operating as a section"

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Would someone explain to me how a part-time force is a panacea to address immediate requirements?  One would think that a full-time force in being is necessary for emergencies (be they domestic or international, disaster relief or warfighting); as they provide the immediate response, you mobilize the part-time force.

Our current thinking, that the highly paid full-timers will sit back, relax, and wait for the part-timers to respond, is illogical in the extreme.
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Offline mariomike

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The plan also flags a long-standing issue for the reserves — part-time soldiers, often in senior roles, who are first responders in their civilian jobs. In a civil emergency, it’s not clear whether they would be available to the military. (The plan assumes they won’t be.)

Re: "major B.C. earthquake".

CAN-TF1 ( Vancouver ) would play a role,
https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/mrgnc-mngmnt/rspndng-mrgnc-vnts/hvyrbn-srch-rsc-en.aspx
•Vancouver Fire and Rescue Services
•Vancouver Police Department
•BC Ambulance Service
« Last Edit: February 15, 2017, 15:19:57 by mariomike »

Offline MilEME09

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Would someone explain to me how a part-time force is a panacea to address immediate requirements?  One would think that a full-time force in being is necessary for emergencies (be they domestic or international, disaster relief or warfighting); as they provide the immediate response, you mobilize the part-time force.

Our current thinking, that the highly paid full-timers will sit back, relax, and wait for the part-timers to respond, is illogical in the extreme.

I would agree, your Reg force is your response unit, the Res forces are the follow up second wave IMO, or perhaps limited first 12-24hour call up of those that are available to be your eyes on the ground/recce so when the reg force arrives they have a better picture, and have people that know the area now with them.
"We are called a Battalion, Authorized to be company strength, parade as a platoon, Operating as a section"

Offline Chris Pook

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Would someone explain to me how a part-time force is a panacea to address immediate requirements?  One would think that a full-time force in being is necessary for emergencies (be they domestic or international, disaster relief or warfighting); as they provide the immediate response, you mobilize the part-time force.

Our current thinking, that the highly paid full-timers will sit back, relax, and wait for the part-timers to respond, is illogical in the extreme.

I'm reminded of Boris and Natasha - something about "Darling, I'm too important..."
"Wyrd bið ful aræd"

Offline Chris Pook

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I don't see how you can reasonably build an effective plan to rescue 4,000,000 bodies, stuck in the mud, in a period of 72 hours with a part time force of 1500 bodies scattered hither and yon, equally stuck in the mud and lacking in personal communications.

And why would you think about sending in another 20,000 mouths to feed if all they can do is stand around in the mud with the locals?
"Wyrd bið ful aræd"

Offline Humphrey Bogart

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US Army Corps of Engineers would be all over it, we don't need to worry.

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US Army Corps of Engineers would be all over it, we don't need to worry.

Might they not be busy south of the border?   I'm sure Seattle would be calling for their caffeine fix.
"Wyrd bið ful aræd"

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A major earthquake in the Lower Mainland and Vancouver Island would require a major, coordinated and long-term national response. The CF would only be part of that response, albeit a critical part. I'm not sure anyone outside a small group of professional emergency planners in BC really appreciates the scale and scope of damage a major earthquake would cause. And forget relying on the US military. What hits Vancouver will likely have hit Seattle and the rest of the Pacific Northwest. Canada is woefully unprepared for this event.

Offline mariomike

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For anyone interested, more discussion here,

The Really Big One 
http://army.ca/forums/index.php?topic=119880.0
OP: "So, how are we doing with respect to earthquake preparedness CF-wise?"
2 pages.
« Last Edit: February 16, 2017, 09:25:27 by mariomike »

Offline Colin P

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Relevant due to highlighting the issues in the PRes.

http://globalnews.ca/news/3241545/six-month-military-operation-would-follow-major-b-c-earthquake/

Operation Panorama link from the article: https://shawglobalnews.files.wordpress.com/2017/02/a-2016-00922.pdf

I've said it before on here that this is the new reality of the PRes, the fact that all it would take is an earthquake and the scattered PRes of BC would be cut off from higher HQ, or even attempting to notify troops should worry people.

Let's not kid ourselves it will be the US military that responds initially in force to help us, the Canadian military will take up some of the slack later.

Offline Humphrey Bogart

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Let's not kid ourselves it will be the US military that responds initially in force to help us, the Canadian military will take up some of the slack later.

This was my point earlier in the thread.  US Military has infinite more times capability than we do.  Our plan probably isn't worth the paper it's printed on.  The entire CAF would need to be mobilized and deployed to BC if this earthquake was Japan Tsunami scale.

Offline daftandbarmy

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This was my point earlier in the thread.  US Military has infinite more times capability than we do.  Our plan probably isn't worth the paper it's printed on.  The entire CAF would need to be mobilized and deployed to BC if this earthquake was Japan Tsunami scale.

Cool... then I'm going to build a giant earthquake proof Tim Horton's, Copenhagen and porn store in Victoria and make a fortune... :)
"The most important qualification of a soldier is fortitude under fatigue and privation. Courage is only second; hardship, poverty and want are the best school for a soldier." Napoleon

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Cool... then I'm going to build a giant earthquake proof Tim Horton's, Copenhagen and porn store in Victoria and make a fortune... :)

Advice to an outsider D&B:  When I feel the ground shaking should I run up hill to get away from the tsunami or down hill to get away from the mudslide?  [:D
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Offline daftandbarmy

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Advice to an outsider D&B:  When I feel the ground shaking should I run up hill to get away from the tsunami or down hill to get away from the mudslide?  [:D

As you're in Alberta I'd recommend staying put, donning your NBC suit and mask, then wait in the bunker for the mushroom cloud (from some kind of gigantic fossil fueled explosion) to dissipate before pushing the nearest dead red neck from behind the wheel of his giant truck and heading for Kamloops :)
"The most important qualification of a soldier is fortitude under fatigue and privation. Courage is only second; hardship, poverty and want are the best school for a soldier." Napoleon

Offline mariomike

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B.C. Earthquake Immediate Response Plan
http://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/public-safety-and-emergency-services/emergency-preparedness-response-recovery/provincial-emergency-planning/irp.pdf

The Government Operations Centre, upon notification of a catastrophic earthquake affecting Greater Vancouver or Greater Victoria, will immediately coordinate the request and movement of HUSAR teams, both domestic and international, for deployment to B.C. The Province will also employ mutual aid agreements, such as the Pacific Northwest Emergency Management Arrangement (PNEMA), with neighbouring states for HUSAR support. The Province will control, coordinate and prioritize the deployment of all civilian HUSAR assets within B.C. based on local authority and First Nations needs assessment.

Contingency Plan PANORAMA: Canadian Armed Forces Joint Task force Pacific’s response plan for a catastrophic earthquake in Southwest British Columbia or Southern Vancouver Island area.

Department of National Defence – Contingency Plan PANORAMA
Following a catastrophic earthquake event affecting southern Vancouver Island and/or the Greater Vancouver area, Joint Task Force Pacific (JTFP) will assess the situation and, if required, activate the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) regional Contingency Plan (CONPLAN) PANORAMA – which is the CAF regional response to a catastrophic earthquake effecting B.C. Engagement with civil authorities will occur early and at multiple levels to determine how and where military forces will be best engaged in immediate response activities in support of the Province.
CONPLAN PANORAMA is linked to and integrated with other CAF regional and higher level plans. Combined, these plans detail actions of the CAF units, bases and formations in B.C., and the reinforcement of JTFP with other high readiness CAF elements throughout Canada. Reinforcement will occur through a combination of pre-planned deployments and through the Request for Assistance (RFA) process.

Canadian Armed Forces JOINT TASK FORCE PACIFIC (JTFP)
• Establish contact and liaison with the PECC/PERRC
• Establish contact and liaison with all PREOCs
• Local units/bases/formations to establish contact and liaison with local authority EOCs
• Report status of Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) in B.C. and response actions
• Within capability, reinforce first responders to provide initial actions to save lives
• Conduct reconnaissance and contribute to JOA situational assessment
• Provide personnel and equipment to augment provincial response
• Provide personnel to augment the PECC/PERRC operations on request
• Commence preparations for receiving CAF reinforcements from outside the JOA
• Commence preparations for receiving US Military reinforcements under the Civil Assistance Plan (CAP)



« Last Edit: February 17, 2017, 12:30:07 by mariomike »

Offline Colin P

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Re: The Really Big One
« Reply #51 on: February 17, 2017, 13:03:26 »
I would mobilize all the tugs and barges that survived to be the transportation network across the inlets and rivers until the remaining bridges are certified safe to use. Transport Canada will need to suspend certain requirements to make that work, in fact having someone who can tell regulating busybodies to piss off and others to get off their *** will be a key component in resolving any such crisis.

I would also make it a requirement for a city permit for food trucks and carts for them to report as soon as possible after a major disaster to a primary or secondary location to help feed survivors. That location to be posted on the truck/cart so they know where to go.

Offline Remius

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Re: The Really Big One
« Reply #52 on: February 17, 2017, 13:20:55 »
I would also make it a requirement for a city permit for food trucks and carts for them to report as soon as possible after a major disaster to a primary or secondary location to help feed survivors. That location to be posted on the truck/cart so they know where to go.

I'm pretty sure that food carts and trucks don't carry a lot of inventory on hand beyond a day or two.  Plus I suspect they'll be busy looking after themselves. 
Optio

Offline mariomike

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Re: The Really Big One
« Reply #53 on: February 17, 2017, 13:48:26 »
Hopefully, federal funding of Vancouver HUSAR CAN-TF1 will continue.

From 2012,

Feds cut funds to Vancouver urban search and rescue team
http://bc.ctvnews.ca/feds-cut-funds-to-vancouver-urban-search-and-rescue-team-1.799127
Vancouver's fire chief was caught off guard this week when he learned that the federal government had cut funding to the city's urban search and rescue team, a crucial resource in case "the big one" hits.

Offline Colin P

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Re: The Really Big One
« Reply #54 on: February 17, 2017, 13:52:14 »
It's more the cooking facility, basically the bigger trucks are flying kitchens. Many won't make it, but the city already has emergency hubs set up, having them setup there and cook food as provided for the survivors will ease the burden on the civil authorities and get clean safe food into people. The problem with people in the West is that if you gave them cooking oil, baking powder, sugar and flour, the vast majority would not know what to do with it. Most 3rd world types would actually do better in the initial stages of a disaster, than first world types in my opinion. 

Offline Remius

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Re: The Really Big One
« Reply #55 on: February 17, 2017, 14:12:57 »
It's more the cooking facility, basically the bigger trucks are flying kitchens. Many won't make it, but the city already has emergency hubs set up, having them setup there and cook food as provided for the survivors will ease the burden on the civil authorities and get clean safe food into people. The problem with people in the West is that if you gave them cooking oil, baking powder, sugar and flour, the vast majority would not know what to do with it. Most 3rd world types would actually do better in the initial stages of a disaster, than first world types in my opinion.

Of course.  Most of those places are self sufficient in that sense.  You live in a shyte hole before it's just a bigger shyte hole than before.

Our creature comforts make us less self sufficient.  The ice storm showed us that here.  People burning their houses down or poisoning themselves with fumes as they barbecued in their kitchens. if the effect on the city had been longer and worse I shudder to think what would have happened.  The rural areas at least had some people fending for themselves having generators, pumps, tools and the know how to keep themselves going (for a few weeks in some cases).

I think though what we do have over those 3rd world locales is the ability to get things running again, more efficiently and quicker.     
Optio

Offline Colin P

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Re: The Really Big One
« Reply #56 on: February 17, 2017, 15:42:22 »
True the initial bit will be harder, but things will sort themselves out sooner and attention to important details like Public health and Hygienic will be there preventing a lot of disease related issues.