Author Topic: Kurdistan Referendum/Other Developments (split fm Op IMPACT)  (Read 7722 times)

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« Last Edit: September 21, 2017, 06:26:56 by milnews.ca »
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Re: Kurdistan Developments (split fm Op IMPACT)
« Reply #1 on: September 14, 2017, 10:01:32 »
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Offline Lumber

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Re: Kurdistan Developments (split fm Op IMPACT)
« Reply #2 on: September 14, 2017, 10:06:08 »
More Kurdish referendum friction ...

Alright then, here comes Iraqi Civil War/Insurgency round 17.
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Re: Kurdistan Developments (split fm Op IMPACT)
« Reply #3 on: September 14, 2017, 15:27:58 »
The Kurds accepted Iraq sovereignty on bequest of the US, once already, look what happened, the Iraq state folded when attacked by a few thousand terrorists and left the Kurds to their own devices. Kurdish independence is going happen either now or later. Both will have a cost, but for now the State of Iraq and Syria are weak and the timing is good. Turkey is also in throes as well. 

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Offline MilEME09

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Re: Kurdistan Developments (split fm Op IMPACT)
« Reply #6 on: September 15, 2017, 19:36:45 »
Well we didn't make the situation better by having CANSOFCOM train them, and then the west sending them weapons. Granted they have been the best force against the Islamic state, however if this leads to a Kurdistan vs Iraq civil war, the Kurds from a training point of view have the upper hand. Likely to inflict multiple military defeats in the opening weeks and months of any war.
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Re: Kurdistan Developments (split fm Op IMPACT)
« Reply #8 on: September 17, 2017, 15:48:41 »
Well we didn't make the situation better by having CANSOFCOM train them, and then the west sending them weapons. Granted they have been the best force against the Islamic state, however if this leads to a Kurdistan vs Iraq civil war, the Kurds from a training point of view have the upper hand. Likely to inflict multiple military defeats in the opening weeks and months of any war.

You're not considering the other countries involved who have been training the ISFs?  US, Australia etc?
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Re: Kurdistan Developments (split fm Op IMPACT)
« Reply #9 on: September 17, 2017, 16:38:10 »
You're not considering the other countries involved who have been training the ISFs?  US, Australia etc?

And don't forget about Iran, who have also been actively training, mentoring and equipping Iraqi forces -- forces that are proving quite effective on the battlefield. Quite how we got to the point where Iranian mentored forces are operating in close cooperation with US mentored forces is itself a strange story -- enemy of my enemy and all that. But just like the WWII alliance between the US/UK and the USSR, it's dependent on the existence of that common enemy. So once ISIS is defeated, so is any reason for Iran and the US to carry on tolerating each other inside Iraq, and if Kurdistan tries to gain their independence, I would expect those Iranian forces to act in support of the Baghdad government in trying to prevent that independence. Iran does not particularly want a pro-US independent Kurdistan on their borders. It would be viewed as a US proxy, and a threat.

But hey, I've been wrong before. I wouldn't put money on that prediction. The situation in the Middle East is always complicated, but this is the worst that I can remember.

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Re: Kurdistan Developments (split fm Op IMPACT)
« Reply #11 on: September 18, 2017, 16:55:58 »
The Kurds enemies are all busy and strained by the war, there will not be a better time to declare independence, Iraq failed them when ISIS overran their armies. On the plus side the Kurds need trade and can make deals if the West bankrolls them for the first years. Build good roads and pipeline facilities and get international partners to work out water rights and land title issues. The US can pressure Turkey to allow trade and flyover routes, while at the same time pressure Kurdistan not to support any cross border attacks. That I see is the main card the Kurds can play, trade and cessation of attacks in Turkey.   

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Re: Kurdistan Developments (split fm Op IMPACT)
« Reply #12 on: September 18, 2017, 17:31:24 »
The US can pressure Turkey to allow trade and flyover routes, while at the same time pressure Kurdistan not to support any cross border attacks. That I see is the main card the Kurds can play, trade and cessation of attacks in Turkey.

This may be a dangerous proposition though and push Turkey out of NATO. The Kurdish problem is a strategic one for the Turks and likely one that they are willing to stand up over. How much pressure the US can put on Turkey (who wouldn't allow US troops into Turkey for the invasion in 2003) is debatable, particularly if pushing means moving Turkey closer to Russia and further away from NATO and Israel.

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Re: Kurdistan Developments (split fm Op IMPACT)
« Reply #13 on: September 18, 2017, 20:19:48 »
... the Kurds need trade and can make deals if the West bankrolls them for the first years ...
They are working the oil fields as a potential revenue source, although, 1) assuming they can hang on to them post-independence, and 2) with a few "gotta wonder" players to keep an eye on (like Russia).

Meanwhile, IRQ's pres thinks the Kurdish referendum is critical enough to cancel a visit to the U.S.
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Re: Kurdistan Developments (split fm Op IMPACT)
« Reply #15 on: September 19, 2017, 10:12:50 »
This may be a dangerous proposition though and push Turkey out of NATO. The Kurdish problem is a strategic one for the Turks and likely one that they are willing to stand up over. How much pressure the US can put on Turkey (who wouldn't allow US troops into Turkey for the invasion in 2003) is debatable, particularly if pushing means moving Turkey closer to Russia and further away from NATO and Israel.

Turkey is basically out of NATO already and the given up on the EU so not a big step, the big stick would be trade and potential sanctions. I suspect the cream of the Turkish officer corp has been purged and the army will never again be allowed to be so efficient. Russia might see Kurdistan as a excellent counterpoint to Turkey as well.

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Re: Kurdistan Developments (split fm Op IMPACT)
« Reply #16 on: September 19, 2017, 15:37:36 »
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« Last Edit: September 20, 2017, 22:19:43 by milnews.ca »
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Re: Kurdistan Developments (split fm Op IMPACT)
« Reply #20 on: September 20, 2017, 22:27:30 »
I'm thinking that the Kurdish independence referendum is something bigger and distinct from Canada's Op IMPACT - especially considering recent press releases indicating that the part of the mission that was working with the Kurds may already have shifted to working with other elements of Iraqi security forces.  I think maybe this thread has become confused with the broader Middle East thread here: https://army.ca/forums/index.php/topic,113578.0.html

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Re: Kurdistan Developments (split fm Op IMPACT)
« Reply #21 on: September 21, 2017, 06:21:39 »
I'm thinking that the Kurdish independence referendum is something bigger and distinct from Canada's Op IMPACT - especially considering recent press releases indicating that the part of the mission that was working with the Kurds may already have shifted to working with other elements of Iraqi security forces.  I think maybe this thread has become confused with the broader Middle East thread here: https://army.ca/forums/index.php/topic,113578.0.html
Makes sense.  I think since CAF troops are dealing with Kurds specifically, as opposed with just the broader mid-east, I'll pull the Kurdish content and create a new thread.

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« Last Edit: September 21, 2017, 10:48:00 by milnews.ca »
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Re: Kurdistan Referendum/Other Developments (split fm Op IMPACT)
« Reply #22 on: September 21, 2017, 10:46:42 »
While the Syria/Iraqi/Hezbollah made great gains against ISIS, they did it with a lot of help from Russia and the US, particularly in intelligence and CAS. With a conflict between those states and Kurdistan, it's likely they will not have that support. Kurdistan is not a threat to Russia, in fact it may be a useful tool or assets for them at some point. The Syrian Kurds are willing to work with Assad's Regime and at the very least not be a threat to it. That will be all that Russia wants from them and Kurdistan. Russia may worry about Iran having to many conflicting aims with them and Kurdistan would keep them occupied and busy nearer home. Russia may turn on and off support for Kurdistan as required to manipulate Turkey to achieve Russian goals.

The US while not keen on independence at this time will eventually accept it and will likely defend it in the long run. Kurdistan biggest weakness is being landlocked and airlocked. Forcing Iraq and Turkey to allow overflights might be the biggest asset that the US can bring to the table outside of direct military aid. Maintaining aid and support after independence also allows the US to pressure the Kurds into limiting adventures outside their borders and not publicly supporting other Kurdish independence for awhile.

Israel will like up covert aid to Kurdistan, mostly training and intelligence. The UN is going to be opposed as such an independence movement is to much of a threat to many countries that are oppressing their own minorities or have long simmering independence movements.   

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Re: Kurdistan Referendum/Other Developments (split fm Op IMPACT)
« Reply #23 on: September 21, 2017, 13:09:47 »
Although strongly in favour of eventual Kurdish independence, I think the current timing is VERY dangerous for them and I'm hopeful the current move is a negotiating tactic to get maximum concessions from the government in Baghdad, as well as US & EU donor countries.

I think in a few years, once the Kurdish region is home to more US/EU bases, they have more heavier weapons of their own, and have investments from some major energy companies (and after Erdogan/Turkey are officially out of NATO), that's when they make they should make their move.
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