Author Topic: Iran Super Thread- Merged  (Read 670475 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

jollyjacktar

  • Guest
Re: Iran Super Thread- Merged
« Reply #2575 on: December 31, 2017, 09:46:45 »
Two demonstrators have, so far, been shot and killed.  The State is blaming "foreign agents" as the persons responsible for the killings.  With any luck these protests will be successful this time.

Offline tomahawk6

  • Army.ca Fixture
  • *****
  • 101,410
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 9,372
Re: Iran Super Thread- Merged
« Reply #2576 on: January 01, 2018, 22:57:33 »
The protests have not been put down as yet.If they spread further security forces will be spread pretty thin. Meanwhile in Kermanshah:

Telegraph UK reports:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/01/01/defiant-iran-protesters-steal-revolutionary-guards-trousers/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_tw

The Basij militiaman, a paramilitary storm trooper of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, was reportedly swinging an electric shock baton when the crowd of angry protesters closed in around him.

“They got a Basij, hold him!” one man shouted as the demonstrators pulled away the militiaman’s baton and knocked him to the ground in the largely Kurdish city of Kermanshah.

But rather than beat the man to death, the crowd struck a different kind of blow against Iran’s authoritarian regime: they stripped him of his trousers and sent him stumbling and humiliated into the cold night.

“The protesters wanted to show that they are peaceful but that they are not weak and they are not afraid,” tweeted Iranian reporter Raman Ghavami.

Reports are emerging that the whole city of Kermanshah is now protesting the regime, chanting “down with the dictator” and “death to Khamenei!”


jollyjacktar

  • Guest
Re: Iran Super Thread- Merged
« Reply #2577 on: January 02, 2018, 07:56:08 »
I wish the protesters every success in bringing change to the powers that be in that country.  Looks as if they're tired of the beards crap.

Offline Cdn Blackshirt

  • Army.ca Veteran
  • *****
  • 13,225
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 1,407
Re: Iran Super Thread- Merged
« Reply #2578 on: January 02, 2018, 10:23:34 »
I know the Iranians have been involved with all sorts of nasty stuff, but for whatever reason the guy who scares me most in the Middle East is Erdogan.

The way he's moving the chess pieces around is a dangerously familiar pattern....
IMPORTANT - 'Blackshirt' is a reference to Nebraska Cornhuskers Football and not naziism.   National Champions '70, '71, '94, '95 and '97.    Go Huskers!!!!

jollyjacktar

  • Guest
Re: Iran Super Thread- Merged
« Reply #2579 on: January 02, 2018, 10:58:38 »
I know the Iranians have been involved with all sorts of nasty stuff, but for whatever reason the guy who scares me most in the Middle East is Erdogan.

The way he's moving the chess pieces around is a dangerously familiar pattern....

Agreed.  He's sketchy as frig.  I was hoping the coup attempt in 2016 was going to remove him from office.

Offline Thucydides

  • Army.ca Legend
  • *****
  • 194,295
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 13,670
  • Freespeecher
Re: Iran Super Thread- Merged
« Reply #2580 on: January 03, 2018, 14:53:01 »
More on the protests. It is interesting to see the analysis of who is taking to the streets and how this is different from the 2009 Green Revolution:

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/jan/2/iran-protests-differ-2009-green-revolution/?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiWVdZeU9HVmxOek13TTJZMCIsInQiOiJTR0ZpaVlQZEt3UE5ERkdiQW43bGxseW9qNVk4WjRyb1dkQ1R5cnh6NktQNEw5N2k2Rm9RakloaDh5NDVHS0V6Q0JiVzQ0M3dIck5iM1hRN3VnRTZjMFdhdVpSRFowSEZ0SmJBUzJjOWZ4b0JFVExMZ1pEOTFNWkFkUjZFUTljaCJ9

Quote
Why the ‘working poor’ uprising in Iran may have the power to topple hardline regime

While the abortive Green Revolution eight years ago was driven mainly by the children of wealthy political elites in Tehran in the wake of a questionable election, the spontaneous protests this time around are unfolding across the country and driven ... more >
By Guy Taylor - The Washington Times - Tuesday, January 2, 2018

The wave of violent protests churning across Iran differs dramatically from the last major uprising that rocked the country in 2009 and could spiral out of control if the regime moves too quickly toward military-style tactics to crush the unrest.

While the abortive Green Revolution eight years ago was driven mainly by the children of wealthy political elites in Tehran in the wake of a questionable election, the spontaneous protests this time around are unfolding across the country and driven by what analysts describe as “the working poor” — a segment of the population that has little to lose in the face of a crackdown by the regime.

Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has tread lightly since the protests began last week, weighed in for the first time Tuesday by claiming the protests were being spurred on by “enemies of Iran.” His remarks came in the wake of harsh comments from President Trump on Twitter on the government’s handling of the popular protests amid reports of hundreds of arrests and 21 deaths caused by the unrest.

The White House said Tuesday that Mr. Trump was weighing new sanctions on Iran in light of the unrest. Mr. Trump on Twitter said the Iranian nuclear deal President Obama helped negotiate in 2015 was in part to blame for giving Tehran billions of dollars to fund the military and repress dissent at home.

Nikki Haley, U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, called on the Security Council and the U.N. Human Rights Council to hold emergency meetings on the crisis.

“Nowhere is the urgency of peace, security and freedom being tested more than in Iran,” Mrs. Haley told reporters in New York.

All sides are now watching to see whether the protests will grow in the coming days — and how far the government of President Hassan Rouhani will go to suppress popular protest. Sources with contacts inside Iran say the toll could climb significantly.

“The segment of the population that’s out protesting right now is much the same segment that carried out the revolution against the U.S.-backed Shah nearly 40 years ago,” said one of the sources, who spoke Tuesday on the condition of anonymity. “We’re talking about people who weathered the bullets of the Shah. We don’t know how these people are going to react if there’s a violent crackdown.”

Rahim Guravand, a 34-year-old Tehran construction worker, said the government’s misplaced priorities were at the heart of the crisis.
“The government should stop spending money on unnecessary things in Syria, Iraq and other places and allocate it for creating jobs here,” he told The Associated Press.

Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior Iran analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said the protests are smaller than the 2009 demonstrations, which featured massive crowds in the Iranian capital. “But the number of cities they’ve popped up in is astounding — especially because these are cities where the regime would have expected to have had support,” he said.

“This is spreading through the urban poor in cities other than Tehran, people that should be the staunchest supporters of the regime,” Mr. Taleblu said. “The fact that the regime can’t count on that support now is really embarrassing for hard-liners running the government,” he said.

It took Ayatollah Khamenei nearly a week to issue a public statement on the situation because he’s afraid of sending the wrong message, Mr. Taleblu added.

Region watches

President Hassan Rouhani has said demonstrators have a right to protest peacefully, but the 78-year-old supreme leader, who has final say over all state matters, warned Tuesday of an enemy “waiting for an opportunity, for a crack through which it can infiltrate.”

“Look at the recent days’ incidents,” the supreme leader said. “All those who are at odds with the Islamic republic have utilized various means, including money, weapons, politics and [the] intelligence apparatus, to create problems for the Islamic system, the Islamic republic and the Islamic Revolution.”

Gulf Arab nations, including Iran’s archrival Saudi Arabia, are watching the protests carefully, and some analysts warned Tuesday that the situation could take a far more serious turn in short order.

“The fact that these protests shifted so quickly from being an outcry against economic conditions to now a political protest against the regime shows you how desperate things are and how hungry the Iranian people are for change,” said Mr. Taleblu.

The demonstrations began unexpectedly on Dec. 28 in the conservative city of Mashhad — some 550 miles east of Tehran. Crowds initially were chanting about the weakness of the Iranian economy, plagued by high unemployment, inflation and a widespread feeling that the lifting of economic sanctions following the nuclear deal had not trickled down to ordinary Iranians. A national poll taken in the summer put economic issues far ahead of security and foreign policy as a top priority for voters.

But the most recent unrest spread rapidly over the weekend to other cities, where some are now calling for Ayatollah Khamenei’s ouster and an overthrow of the ruling regime.

Where demonstrators called for more personal freedoms and civil rights in 2009, many now are expressing anger at their government’s economic record. Some protesters have chanted against the government’s military interventions in Syria, Yemen, Iraq and Lebanon, where Tehran is helping underwrite for proxy militias.

With rallies raging Tuesday in at least a dozen cities, including Tehran, there were reports that some 450 had been arrested.

Trita Parsi, who heads the National Iranian American Council, said the protests are likely to surge if there is a major government crackdown, led by conservative groups that see themselves as guardians of the 1979 revolution that created the Islamic republic.

“If this goes on a couple more days, at some point the [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps] will get involved,” he told The Washington Times. “That could create a surge with the protests getting bigger at first, but I believe, ultimately this will be put down by the government.”

Syria repeat?

However, one Iranian source who spoke anonymously with The Times said concerns are high inside Iran that an aggressive crackdown could devolve into a Syria-style situation in which outside powers attempt to militarize the protesters.

“People are worried that if the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps comes in and starts brutalizing people like it did in 2009, there will be others in the region that say, ‘Well, we’re willing to provide arms to the protesters,’” said the source. “To some extent, that’s how Syria started — it was peaceful protests, then [Syrian President Bashar] Assad went in with tanks and six months later there’s nothing left of Syria.”

President Trump said on Twitter Tuesday that “the people of Iran are finally acting against the brutal and corrupt Iranian regime.”
“The people have little food, big inflation and no human rights,” the president wrote. “The U.S. is watching!”

Iran’s economy has improved marginally since the nuclear deal in which Tehran agreed to limit its nuclear program in exchange for the end of some international sanctions. The nation now sells its oil on the global market and has signed deals to purchase tens of billions of dollars worth of Western aircraft.

But the economic opportunities have yet to reach the masses. Unemployment remains high, and official inflation has crept up to 10 percent again. It was a recent increase in egg and poultry prices by as much as 40 percent — which the government has blamed on a cull over avian flu fears — that apparently spurred protesters to take to the streets last week.

Some analysts believe the protests starting in Mashhad as an attempt by hard-line conservatives in the regime seeking to undercut Mr. Rouhani, a relatively moderate cleric who strongly backed the nuclear deal and just won a second four-year term in elections in May. But the apparently leaderless demonstrations, spread in both size and scope of message with help from social media, in particularly a messaging app called Telegram.

The government has since shut down access to Telegram and the photo-sharing app Instagram, which now join Facebook and Twitter in being banned, the AP reported.

Mr. Rouhani has claimed the exiled opposition group known as the Mujahedeen-e-Khalq was inciting the violence. According to his website, Mr. Rouhani spoke by telephone with his French counterpart, Emmanuel Macron, and urged France to stop hosting the group, known as the MEK, which fled after Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution.

The MEK has close ties to the National Council of Resistance (NCRI) of Iran, which holds an annual rally in France to call for the downfall of Iran’s theocratic government. Tens of thousands attend the rally, which has featured speeches from U.S. political figures, including former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean and former FBI Director Louis J. Freeh.

Ali Safavi, an NCRI spokesman in Washington, said Tuesday that the group stands with the protesters taking to the streets in Iran.
“The slogans that are being chanted are slogans we’ve been advocating for the last 39 years,” he said. “Some might want to say this whole thing is spontaneous, but it clearly isn’t.”
Dagny, this is not a battle over material goods. It's a moral crisis, the greatest the world has ever faced and the last. Our age is the climax of centuries of evil. We must put an end to it, once and for all, or perish - we, the men of the mind. It was our own guilt. We produced the wealth of the world - but we let our enemies write its moral code.

Offline Thucydides

  • Army.ca Legend
  • *****
  • 194,295
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 13,670
  • Freespeecher
Re: Iran Super Thread- Merged
« Reply #2581 on: January 05, 2018, 01:57:43 »
Strategy Page on the demonstrations:

https://www.strategypage.com/on_point/20180103223613.aspx

Quote
The Ayatollahs' Brittle Regime Confronts A New Iranian Revolt
by Austin Bay
January 3, 2018

The anti-regime protests now jolting Iran send the world two core messages -- one dismal and sobering, the other an explosive cocktail of the deadly and the hopeful. Both core messages provide guidance for open-minded American and free world policy makers.

It takes a narrow-minded Obama Administration apologist to miss the dismal and sobering message. Here it is, offered with prayers for the abused Iranian citizens who suffer the consequences: Not quite nine years after Tehran's theocrat fascist dictators and their brutal Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps thugs crushed the 2009 Green Movement, Iran remains a domestic political disaster and economic disaster.

Yes -- domestic political disaster and domestic economic disaster. The political requires emphasis since many initial mainstream media reports addressing the protests downplayed the political oppression component.

True, the Movement coalesced around a disputed election and no electoral dispute sparked December 2017's first protests. However, public outrage at the mullah regime's endemic corruption, its relentless political injustice and perpetual economic stagnation also energized the June 2009 anti-regime protests.

Those three factors -- corruption, injustice and economic stagnation-- drive the current protests.

Sanctions relief provided by the Obama Administration and its so-called nuclear weapons deal didn't jump start the Iranian economy as Iranian president Hassan Rouhani promised they would. Where did the dollars and euros and "trade credits" go? Critics -- and this category includes a substantial swath of the Iranian public -- contend the money went into nuclear and ballistic missile weapons programs and the bank accounts of insider ayatollahs, IRGC officers, secret police officials and assorted Lebanese Hezbollah terrorist proxies waging war in Syria and Yemen.

Considering the context, 2018's Iranian public outrage rates as double dismal. In the last nine years the Iranian regime has not moderated, as the Obama Administration contended it would. Rather, the mullah regime has fossilized, dishing out the same violent, repressive, rip-off poison it dished nine years ago.

But here's a difference that's dangerous for the ayatollahs. In 2018 the robed dictators know they are a brittle fossil, ripe for collapse. Why? Well, Donald Trump is the U.S. president, not a Barack Obama-type supplicant who fervently believes a nuclear weapons deal with Iranian militants is the ultimate in peacenik presidential legacies.

The result of the dismal domestic political and economic morass and the presence of the Trump Administration: Iran's dictators enter 2018 thoroughly shaken.

Now here's the dangerous and hopeful message: a substantial percentage of the population (likely the majority) despises the mullahs and their thugs and once again has the courage to take to the streets and show it.

This action is very dangerous because the regime may respond with the Tehran equivalent of a Tiananmen Square (China 1989) bloodbath -- with tens of thousands of Iranian civilians killed by the thugs, and military.

However, hatred for the regime is hopeful for several reasons. The street protests and citizen demands demonstrate the desire for freedom continues to empower Iranians across the socio-economic spectrum. Confronting the secret police and regime thugs show that Iranians know the corrupt dictatorship is responsible for the political mess and economic disaster.

Though many media outlets are reluctant to admit it, freedom protestors throughout the world rely on a positive, supporting reaction by the U.S. president, his administration and other free world leaders.

I've seen several Obama Administration apologists claim President Obama supported the Green Revolution. In truth Obama dithered and his dither is to his eternal discredit. Belatedly, he gave verbal support to Green Revolution demands, after regime thugs and police beat and arrested Iran's vulnerable protestors.

In contrast, the Trump Administration has quickly backed the protests, and backed them with diplomatic and rhetorical spine.

Trump's January 1, 2018 tweet captures the revolutionary moment: "Iran is failing at every level despite the terrible deal made with them by the Obama Administration. The great Iranian people have been repressed for many years. They are hungry for food & for freedom. Along with human rights, the wealth of Iran is being looted. TIME FOR CHANGE!"
Dagny, this is not a battle over material goods. It's a moral crisis, the greatest the world has ever faced and the last. Our age is the climax of centuries of evil. We must put an end to it, once and for all, or perish - we, the men of the mind. It was our own guilt. We produced the wealth of the world - but we let our enemies write its moral code.

Offline Thucydides

  • Army.ca Legend
  • *****
  • 194,295
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 13,670
  • Freespeecher
Re: Iran Super Thread- Merged
« Reply #2582 on: February 13, 2018, 16:21:12 »
More on the slow disintegration of Iran. While we may hope that change will come faster, the regime is entrenched and has ample resources. Unless the Saudis and Israeli's have something up their sleeves, the Iranian revolutionaries are lacking the external support and safe areas needed to successfully prosecute a revolution:

https://pjmedia.com/michaelledeen/islamic-republic-iran-doomed/

Quote
Why the Islamic Republic of Iran is Doomed
BY MICHAEL LEDEEN FEBRUARY 13, 2018

I think the Islamic Republic of Iran is doomed, and I think this is pretty much demonstrated by the events of the past few weeks, culminating in the fiasco on Sunday. Successful revolutions require several things, including manifest failure of the regime, widespread contempt from the overwhelming majority of the people, and a palpable inability of the leaders to impose themselves on the country.

Sunday provided a clear test of the strength of the regime and its supreme leader, Ali Khamenei. The occasion was the anniversary of the 1979 Revolution that overthrew the shah and imposed a theological dictatorship. Khamenei, President Rouhani and their henchmen were eager to demonstrate that the Iranian people actually supported the regime, and that the widespread anti-regime demonstrations of the past month were the marginal consequences of foreign meddling, not genuine passion. Hence the mullahs called for monster rallies to celebrate the 39 years of Islamic Revolution.

It didn’t work.

Turnout was shockingly low, and in fact there were scores of anti-regime demonstrations. Speeches by regime supporters were interrupted, and women brandished hijabs in acts of defiance. A fiasco for the regime.

rest of article is at the link
Dagny, this is not a battle over material goods. It's a moral crisis, the greatest the world has ever faced and the last. Our age is the climax of centuries of evil. We must put an end to it, once and for all, or perish - we, the men of the mind. It was our own guilt. We produced the wealth of the world - but we let our enemies write its moral code.

Offline Lumber

  • Donor
  • Army.ca Veteran
  • *
  • 55,654
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 1,978
Re: Iran Super Thread- Merged
« Reply #2583 on: March 25, 2018, 22:41:54 »
https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/25/middleeast/saudi-arabia-intercepts-missile/index.html

So many questions!

1. What are the Saudis intercepting these incoming missiles with?

2. Where are Yemeni rebels getting these?

3. If these are rebels attacks, why is the Yemeni defence ministry claiming that the "operation was successful"? Sounds like complicitness.
"Aboard his ship, there is nothing outside a captain's control." - Captain Sir Edward Pellew

“Extremes to the right and to the left of any political dispute are always wrong.”
― Dwight D. Eisenhower

Death before dishonour! Nothing before coffee!

Offline winnipegoo7

  • Member
  • ****
  • 9,760
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 227
Re: Iran Super Thread- Merged
« Reply #2584 on: March 25, 2018, 23:08:38 »
https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/25/middleeast/saudi-arabia-intercepts-missile/index.html

So many questions!

1. What are the Saudis intercepting these incoming missiles with?

2. Where are Yemeni rebels getting these?

3. If these are rebels attacks, why is the Yemeni defence ministry claiming that the "operation was successful"? Sounds like complicitness.

Some answers:

1. Patriots (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/MIM-104_Patriot)
2. Likely Iran (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burkan-2)
3. According to your link the ministry of defence is controlled by the rebels:
Quote
according to Yemen's Houthi-controlled Defense Ministry.

Offline tomahawk6

  • Army.ca Fixture
  • *****
  • 101,410
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 9,372
Re: Iran Super Thread- Merged
« Reply #2585 on: March 28, 2018, 12:11:54 »
The Saudis use the Patriot missile.In recent news the Russians helped the regime out with nuclear program.