Author Topic: Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread  (Read 1149767 times)

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Offline Dimsum

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Re: Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread
« Reply #3375 on: March 06, 2018, 01:21:39 »
NYT article about the lack of info about Xi Jinping, who now has no term limit.

Quote
Behind Public Persona, the Real Xi Jinping Is a Guarded Secret

BEIJING — One Sunday last month, China’s leader, Xi Jinping, traveled to a village in the mountains of Sichuan Province. He wore an olive overcoat with a fur collar, which he kept zipped up even when he entered an adobe house to meet with villagers. Around an indoor fire pit, he sat among a circle of people wearing traditional clothes of the Yi minority group.

“How did the Communist Party come into being?” he asked at one point as he extolled the virtues of socialism. Without hesitating, he answered. “It was established to lead people to a happy life,” he said, and then he added:

“That’s what we should do forever.”

Mr. Xi’s remark — specifically its open-ended pledge — suddenly resonates more deeply than before. Barring the unexpected, delegates gathering this week for the annual National People’s Congress in Beijing will rubber-stamp constitutional changes that will enable Mr. Xi to remain the country’s leader indefinitely by eliminating presidential term limits.

Mr. Xi, who will turn 65 in June, has done more than any of his predecessors to create a public persona as an avuncular man of the people, even as he has maneuvered behind the scenes with a ruthless ambition to dominate China’s enigmatic elite politics.

The government’s propaganda apparatus regularly depicts him as a firm yet adoring patriarch and leader who fights poverty and corruption at home while building China’s prestige abroad as an emerging superpower.

What is striking is how little is known about Mr. Xi’s biography as a leader, even though he has held the country’s highest posts since 2012 — president, general secretary and commander in chief, among others.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/05/world/asia/xi-jinping-china-leader.html
Philip II of Macedon to Spartans (346 BC):  "You are advised to submit without further delay, for if I bring my army into your land, I will destroy your farms, slay your people, and raze your city."

Reply:  "If."

Offline MarkOttawa

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Re: Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread
« Reply #3376 on: March 15, 2018, 16:58:02 »
When will Justin Trudeau, Liberals and our complicit compradors awake?

Quote
US Sounds Alarms Over Chinese Tech, IP Thefts & Espionage

The alarm bells are going off all over Washington and Silicon Valley that Chinese startup investors are coming — and are pumping their money into tech startups at a pace that is making Congress stand up and take notice.

Just this week, President Donald Trump cited national security concerns when he blocked Singapore-based Broadcom’s proposed acquisition of Qualcomm, a U.S.-based technology firm that has made huge investments in artificial intelligence and other dual-use technologies important to both the commercial sector and the Pentagon. While his decision is being framed as a telltale sign of his newly muscular nationalist “America First” policies, members of Congress, Pentagon brass and tech experts have been raising the flag all week over the precarious American advantages in artificial intelligence, and the massive strides China has made in closing the gap.

In particular, Beijing has set out on a path to diminish the Pentagon’s traditional technological advantages “by targeting and acquiring the very technologies that are critical to our military success,” the Pentagon’s head of manufacturing and industrial base policy Eric Chewning, told a House panel on Thursday. 

China has said it plans to be the world leader in artificial intelligence by 2030, a plan underlined by massive investments that cut across civilian and military applications. In 2017 alone, $12.5 billion in startup funding flowed into artificial intelligence companies, with Chinese startups receiving 48 percent of that money.

Adm Harry Harris, head of Pacific Command, told the Senate Armed Services Committee Thursday that China is “blurring lines” between military and civilian industry and efforts, warning that U.S. policymakers and businesses need to be be more sensitive the advantages that our open society provides competitors. In particular, when it comes to China, he’s worried about the “purchase of large tracts of land near our training and electronic ranges,” which are ripe for espionage.

A bill being currently being considered by Congress aims like an arrow straight at the heart of this issue, and if passed, would institute sweeping changes in the national security reviews performed by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS). The White House, Pentagon, and a bipartisan group of lawmakers are all behind The Foreign Investment Risk Review Modernization Act of 2017 (FIRRMA) that would grant the government more power to block technology transfers, the sharing of intellectual property with certain foreign individuals, and even scrutinize proposed land sales near sensitive military and intelligence installations in the United States...
https://breakingdefense.com/2018/03/us-sounds-alarms-over-chinese-tech-ip-thefts-espionage/

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Re: Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread
« Reply #3377 on: March 21, 2018, 21:47:53 »
Will Justin Trudeau and all our Canadian compradors (of whom Jean Chrétien is a prime Liberal example) ever wake up, diversity and inclusiveness be damned?

Quote
Bigger overseas liaison agency fuels fears about Chinese influence
United Front Work Department will take over responsibility for ethnic and religious affairs, adding to concerns that Beijing is tightening its grip

The consolidation of the United Front Work Department is part of a restructure of party agencies announced on Wednesday. It will take over the duties of state agencies overseeing ethnic and religious affairs, as well as the overseas Chinese portfolio.

Observers said the move added to concerns about Beijing’s tight grip on religious and ethnic affairs, and worries about its political infiltration overseas...

Back in 2015, President Xi Jinping said a rapidly changing internal and external situation meant the department’s work had to be more coordinated.

The department has meanwhile extended its reach over the years, with its bureaus responsible for liaising with people in Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan and foreign nations, for example, coordinating with Chinese student associations in other countries...

It will also be responsible for studying the conditions faced by overseas Chinese, cultural exchanges and for uniting the Chinese diaspora.

Strengthening the power of the United Front Work Department is part of a sweeping restructure that will see more fusion of the party and the state.

But it comes as the department is under growing scrutiny from Western governments, such as Australia and the United States, that are suspicious of China’s tactics to spread its influence abroad and meddle in local politics [Canada?]...
http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2138279/bigger-overseas-liaison-agency-fuels-fears-about

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Re: Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread
« Reply #3378 on: March 22, 2018, 16:37:40 »
Under Xi CCP's United Front Work Department getting lots more powerful:

Quote
Chinese Communist Party takes firmer grip on propaganda levers

The Communist Party has taken direct control over the Chinese media, and the party's organisation, "United Front" will take over all dealings with overseas Chinese, as president Xi Jinping continues to weaken the institutions of the state.

China's state run television and radio broadcasters will be merged into a new body called Voice of China, which is designed to improve China's influence overseas.

Voice of China will allow "correct guidance of public opinion" and will "strengthen international dissemination capacity building, and tell China stories well", according to a document released by the party's Central Committee.

The changes constitute a major shake up.

Xi is streamlining the government of China, and placing it more clearly under party supervision, to make it clear the Communist Party is in control.

The United Front, a shadowy party body that has been accused in Australia recently of attempting to covertly interfere in overseas Chinese communities, will absorb three state agencies that had dealt with religious groups, overseas Chinese and ethnic minorities in China.

Chinese politics expert at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, Willy Lam, said the restructure was "a new ball game" that gave United Front additional authority and power.

An official document said that United Front would "manage administrative affairs of overseas Chinese", make policy, "investigate and study" overseas Chinese affairs, coordinate social organisations, and contact relevant overseas societies and representatives [emphasis added].

United Front will guide and promote overseas Chinese propaganda, cultural exchange and Chinese language education.

This would "more extensively unite overseas compatriots and returned overseas Chinese and their relatives", according to Xinhua.

But Lam warned of a backlash.

Putting United Front in charge of overseas language education could add credence to the argument of US politicians who are pushing a draft bill for Confucius Institutes to be registered as agents of foreign influence, he said.

Confucius Institutes currently come under China's education department...
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/chinese-communist-party-takes-firmer-grip-on-propaganda-levers-20180322-p4z5p1.html

Then read this super-stinger from Terry Glavin:

Quote
China is a bigger threat than Russia—but you won’t hear Trudeau say it
Terry Glavin: Trudeau is quick with harsh words for Putin, but when it comes to clear cases of Chinese meddling in Canada why does he stay mum?
http://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/china-is-a-bigger-threat-than-russia-but-you-wont-hear-trudeau-say-it/

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Online tomahawk6

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Re: Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread
« Reply #3379 on: March 26, 2018, 04:50:55 »
China lost a submarine in 2003 with its entire crew dead including a flag officer.Sounds like what happened with some other AIP equiped subs lately.

http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/2003-chinese-submarine-was-lost-sea-how-the-crew-died-25072


The Type 035 Ming-class submarine was an outdated second-generation design evolved from the lineage of the Soviet Romeo-class, in turn a Soviet development of the German Type XXI “Electric U-Boat” from World War II. The first two Type 035s were built in 1975 but remained easy to detect compared to contemporary American or Russian designs. Though China operated numerous diesel submarines, due to concerns over seaworthiness, they rarely ventured far beyond coastal waters in that era. Nonetheless, Chinese shipyards continued to build updated Ming-class boats well into the 1990s. Submarine 361 was one of the later Type 035G Ming III models, which introduced the capability to engage opposing submerged submarines with guided torpedoes. Entering service in 1995, she and three sister ships numbered 359 through 362 formed the North Sea Fleet’s 12th Submarine Brigade based in Liaoning province.

On April 25, 2003 the crew of a Chinese fishing boat noticed a strange sight—a periscope drifting listlessly above the surface of the water. The fishermen notified the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) which promptly dispatched two vessels to investigate.



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Re: Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread
« Reply #3380 on: March 27, 2018, 11:46:31 »
Looks like China is coming out to play.

Quote
Satellite images show dozens of Chinese naval vessels putting on a huge show of force in the South China Sea
Up to 40 ships can be seen in a line formation with submarines flanking a carrier
Satellite images taken on Monday above off Hainan island in South China Sea
Beijing describes it as combat drills that were part of routine annual exercises
Analysts describe it as an unusually large display of China's growing naval might


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5548687/Satellite-images-reveal-force-Chinese-navy-South-China-Sea.html#ixzz5AxrhJHfL
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

Offline E.R. Campbell

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Re: Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread
« Reply #3381 on: March 28, 2018, 14:23:46 »
Huge, if it true and a real coup for Xi Jinping; he trumps Trump.

Edited to add: Now the SCMP reports that what Kim and Xi discussed was trhe "complete denuclearization" of the peninsula which means all US nukes must go, too.

At a guess: President Trump, the USA s a whole, cannot and will not accept that, even though both South Korea and Japan might be in favour. That will, likely leave Trump looking, diplomatically, like the guy who doesn't want peace while Xi will be painted, by his own media, as the guy almost got a nuclear free Korea ... but was stabbed in the back by Trump, the racist, Sinophobe, warmonger.
« Last Edit: March 28, 2018, 17:16:30 by E.R. Campbell »
It is ill that men should kill one another in seditions, tumults and wars; but it is worse to bring nations to such misery, weakness and baseness
as to have neither strength nor courage to contend for anything; to have nothing left worth defending and to give the name of peace to desolation.
Algernon Sidney in Discourses Concerning Government, (1698)
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Re: Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread
« Reply #3382 on: March 29, 2018, 07:29:56 »
So, it appears that what North Korean leader Kim Jong-un put on the table about "denuclearization" was nothing more than what has been there for decades: he is, probably, I'm guessing willing to decommission his nuclear weapons programme IF, but only if the USA removes ALL of its nuclear weapons from South Korea ... denuclearization, in other words, means for everyone on the entire Korean peninsula.

Two articles in Foreign Affairs pertain:

First, Toby Dalton and Ariel Levite say, in "When Trump Meets Kim Jong Un; A Realistic Option for Negotiating With North Korea" that there is a spectrum of possibilities: "On one end of the spectrum is the popular notion of denuclearizing North Korea, which usually means complete, verifiable, and irreversible dismantlement of North Korea’s nuclear capabilities, or CVID. Although professing nominal commitment to this goal, Kim appears to be conditioning it on such formidable requirements that it is extremely unlikely his regime will actually pursue this in any meaningful time frame, no matter how hard the United States sanctions, threatens, or incentivizes it. Kim believes it would be suicidal to give up his “existential” deterrent, so complete denuclearization is simply not on the table today ... [but] ... Even if it were negotiable in the near term, CVID is based on an outdated understanding of North Korea’s nuclear enterprise. When the U.S. government developed the CVID concept in the mid-2000s, North Korea had conducted just one nuclear explosion test and its long-range ballistic missile program was still in its infancy. North Korea’s technical progress over the intervening decade—five additional nuclear tests and dozens of missile flights—means that a more sophisticated and intrusive approach to rolling back its dangerous capabilities is needed." But, they say, "On the other end of the spectrum, and what North Korea might accept following a summit, is a simple temporary suspension of nuclear and missile flight testing, as Russia has suggested, for which Kim would still demand some sanctions relief or other incentive. But the Trump administration would immediately reject such a minimalist concession. After all, Pyongyang’s unchecked arsenal is already worrisome, and it can continue to grow and improve without full-scale tests;" and

Second, Oriana Skylar Mastro writes, in "Why China Won’t Rescue North Korea; What to Expect If Things Fall Apart" that "U.S. officials have long agreed with Mao Zedong’s famous formulation about relations between China and North Korea: the two countries are like “lips and teeth.” Pyongyang depends heavily on Beijing for energy, food, and most of its meager trade with the outside world, and so successive U.S. administrations have tried to enlist the Chinese in their attempts to denuclearize North Korea. U.S. President Donald Trump has bought into this logic, alternately pleading for Chinese help and threatening action if China does not do more. In the same vein, policymakers have assumed that if North Korea collapsed or became embroiled in a war with the United States, China would try to support its cherished client from afar, and potentially even deploy troops along the border to prevent a refugee crisis from spilling over into China ... [but] ... But this thinking is dangerously out of date. Over the last two decades, Chinese relations with North Korea have deteriorated drastically behind the scenes, as China has tired of North Korea’s insolent behavior and reassessed its own interests on the peninsula. Today, China is no longer wedded to North Korea’s survival. In the event of a conflict or the regime’s collapse, Chinese forces would intervene to a degree not previously expected—not to protect Beijing’s supposed ally but to secure its own interests."

I suspect that the latter consideration is what drove Kim Jong-un to visit Beijing. My guess is that he and his inner circle ~ much of which I think is on China's payroll, already ~ understand that they need Xi Jinping much, Much, MUCH more than he needs North Korea.
While I believe that a war on the Asian mainland that involves the USA would be both:

     1. A regional geo-strategic, political, economic and social disaster of the first order; and
     2. Unwinnable unless the word "win" has taken on a whole new meaning; 

I do not, for even a µsecond, discount the possibility that the new Trump Team in Washington is (relatively) unconcerned about potential consequences and is, instead, focused on immediate "returns."

If, and it's a big, Big IF,  my readings of the East Asian tea leaves are correct, then I think that:

     1. Kim requested this meeting because he knows that ~
        a. He's being backed, father and father, into a corner fro which there is only one exit: a nuclear war that will shatter the whole Korean peninsula
            and kill him, and
        b. He needs Chinese backing to face President Trump; and
     2. Xi Jinping agreed to the meeting because ~
        a. He needs ~ for his on geo-strategic purposes ~ to be "in" this process IF it results in anything other than a war ... and he believes that he
            can prevent Kim, at least, from launching such a thing ~ by having him, Kim Jong-un, killed if that's what it takes, and
        b. He needs to keep President Trump off balance.

What does President Trump need?

I think he needs a quick, domestic, public relations success in which he can be seen as having done something useful. Thus far his presidency has been a massive, doltish failure. he needs to show America ~ no one else really cares ... the world fears Donald Trump but it doesn't care about him ~ that he can make a deal. He is, of course, a lousy, failed businessman who can only make deals when he has a bankruptcy court behind him. He simply doesn't know how to make deals, he's a serial bankrupt who inherited the base of his fortune from his father, Fredrick Trump, who was, actually, a successful real estate developer. If he wants to be re-elected in 2020 he needs to show his base, and others, that he has managed, at least, to do something right ... that something may be what Toby Dalton and Ariel Levite describe as "comprehensive and verified capping of North Korea’s threatening strategic capabilities and activities." Such a "broad cap" they say  "could serve the medium-term interests of the United States and its two allies, Japan and South Korea, while also finding acceptance in China and North Korea." All President Trump rally needs is for the world to let its breath out ... to stop fearing that a nuclear war is just around the corner.

Xi Jinping, however, has other goals.

He is, I think, trying to position himself as the wise and trusted Paramount Leader of a great, peace loving nation. He wants China to displace America as the world's "indispensable nation" and he intends to be in power when that happens.  Xi can afford to "play" a longer "game" .. he doesn't have to face re-election or possible impeachment. He will be happy with almost any deal, short of war, because he will receive credit for pushing Kim to the bargaining table.

I think that Xi Jinping, not Kim Jong-un is responsible for the "offer" to denuclearize the Korean peninsula ... the offer will be immensely popular in both Japan and South Korea and, indeed, throughout and even beyond Asia. It cannot be accepted but the blame that will be shard, equally, between Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump. 

It is ill that men should kill one another in seditions, tumults and wars; but it is worse to bring nations to such misery, weakness and baseness
as to have neither strength nor courage to contend for anything; to have nothing left worth defending and to give the name of peace to desolation.
Algernon Sidney in Discourses Concerning Government, (1698)
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Offline SeaKingTacco

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Re: Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread
« Reply #3383 on: March 29, 2018, 10:33:56 »
Huge, if it true and a real coup for Xi Jinping; he trumps Trump.

Edited to add: Now the SCMP reports that what Kim and Xi discussed was trhe "complete denuclearization" of the peninsula which means all US nukes must go, too.

At a guess: President Trump, the USA s a whole, cannot and will not accept that, even though both South Korea and Japan might be in favour. That will, likely leave Trump looking, diplomatically, like the guy who doesn't want peace while Xi will be painted, by his own media, as the guy almost got a nuclear free Korea ... but was stabbed in the back by Trump, the racist, Sinophobe, warmonger.

I'm confused- the US apparently hasn't had nuclear weapons in South Korea since 1991. How can the US further "denuclearize" the Peninsula?

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Re: Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread
« Reply #3384 on: March 29, 2018, 11:01:52 »
SeaKingTacco: By abandoning its treaty obligation to defend the South?

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Re: Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread
« Reply #3385 on: March 29, 2018, 11:16:18 »
SeaKingTacco: By abandoning its treaty obligation to defend the South?

Mark
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I suppose. But that also means removing US troops from South Korea, right?

If the US does that, it does not mean that North Korea would invade the very next day (I am of the opinion that North Korea is conventional force paper tiger and is in capable of successfully invading South Korea. Even Kim must know that.). Would lead to the reunification of Korea, eventually? Who knows?

The US leaving South Korea would reorder the balance of power in Southeast Asia in favour of China. Which would cause the Japanese to question their relationship with the US and possibly lead them to do, what?

Lots of interesting possibilities.

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Re: Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread
« Reply #3386 on: March 29, 2018, 11:57:57 »
As I think I might, just barely, understand it ~ and see this in the South China Morning Post for more details, Kim wants "assurances" ~ which may well involve at least a pledge to withdraw US troops, eventually ~ but he's unlikely to offer much that is anywhere near "complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearization."

My guess is that Xi put the words in Kim's mouth; he, Xi Jinping, has nothing to lose and, potentially, if President Trump in his haste to show that he can do some sort of a "deal" makes a strategic mistake ~ highly likely in my opinion 'cause he's a dimwit, a lot to gain.
It is ill that men should kill one another in seditions, tumults and wars; but it is worse to bring nations to such misery, weakness and baseness
as to have neither strength nor courage to contend for anything; to have nothing left worth defending and to give the name of peace to desolation.
Algernon Sidney in Discourses Concerning Government, (1698)
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Re: Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread
« Reply #3387 on: April 10, 2018, 14:52:30 »
Life for USN carrier groups off China, and USAF/USMC bases, could get more complicated:

Quote
Revealed: China's Nuclear-Capable Air-Launched Ballistic Missile
China is developing a nuclear-capable air-launched ballistic missile, likely based off the DF-21.



China is developing and has been flight-testing a nuclear-capable air-launched ballistic missile (ALBM) along with a new long-range strategic bomber to deliver it, The Diplomat has learned.

According to U.S. government sources with knowledge of the latest intelligence assessments on the Chinese People’s Liberation Army, China has conducted five flight tests of the unnamed missile. The U.S. intelligence community is calling the new missile the CH-AS-X-13.

The missile was first tested in December 2016 and was most recently tested in the last week of January 2018, according to one source. In recent years, the directors of the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) have made reference to this nuclear-capable ALBM in their two most recent on-record worldwide threat assessments.

The two most recent tests of the system involved aerial launches off a modified H-6K strategic bomber capable of being refueled while in the air.

The new bomber, dubbed the H6X1/H-6N by the U.S. intelligence community, has been modified from standard variant H-6s for the ALBM delivery mission. The modifications have been made by Xi’an Aircraft Industrial Corporation, the manufacturer of all H-6 bomber variants since the late-1950s. The H6X1/H-6N may have been the subject of speculation in August 2017, when an image of an unidentified H-6 variant appeared on Chinese social media.

The CH-AS-X-13, meanwhile, is a two-stage, solid-fuel ballistic missile with a 3,000 kilometer range; it is likely a variant of the DF-21 medium-range ballistic missile. The missile may use lighter weight composite materials in its airframe to reduce the necessary carry weight for the bomber.

The H6X1/H-6N is assessed to have a combat radius of nearly 6,000 kilometers — a significant improvement from older H-6 variants. As a system for nuclear delivery, the CH-AS-X-13 on the H6X1/H-6N, assuming a launch from the edge of the bomber’s combat radius, will be capable of threatening targets in the contiguous United States, Hawaii, and Alaska.

According to a source who spoke with The Diplomat, the U.S. intelligence community assesses that the CH-AS-X-13 will be ready for deployment by 2025.

This is in line with a September 2016 announcement by People’s Liberation Army Air Force General Ma Xiaotan, referenced in the U.S. Department of Defense’s 2017 report on Chinese military power, that China would develop a new generation of long-range strategic bombers to be deployed around the mid-2020s.

Aside from the H6X1/H-6N, China has developed the H-6 into a range of support and attack roles. The H-6K, for instance, is capable of delivering standoff range CJ-20 land-attack cruise missiles with precision guidance. These bombers have conducted missions across the so-called First Island Chain, into the western Pacific.

Additionally, the People’s Liberation Army Navy operates the H-6G, which is designed for anti-ship and maritime support missions.

In recent years, senior U.S. intelligence officials have acknowledged the development of a nuclear-capable ALBM in China...
https://thediplomat.com/2018/04/revealed-chinas-nuclear-capable-air-launched-ballistic-missile/

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Re: Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread
« Reply #3388 on: April 18, 2018, 15:54:36 »
From lengthy CSIS piece (the US one most people outside Canada know)--has video, further links at original:

Quote
Does China’s J-20 rival other stealth fighters?
...

...

How might China utilize the J-20

The J-20 has the potential to considerably enhance China’s regional military strength. According to a 2014 U.S. Naval War College report, an operational stealth fighter would “immediately become the most advanced aircraft deployed by any East Asian Power,” surpassing the aircraft fielded in India, Japan, Australia, Indonesia, or Taiwan. The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission advances a similar assessment, noting that the arrival of the J-20 will enhance China’s military leverage against opposing forces in the region. With the J-20 expected become fully operational in the next couple of years, the PLAAF has a considerable head start over the Indian, Japanese, and Korean air forces, which are not slated to put their locally-made advanced fighter counterparts into service until the 2020s.

Opinions vary about the J-20’s comparative strengths as an air superiority (air-to-air) fighter or a strike (air-to-ground) aircraft. Some analysts believe that the J-20’s emphasis on frontal stealth makes it an effective long-range interceptor, meant for mid-air engagements. Others see the J-20 as a long-range strike aircraft, best suited for penetrating enemy air defenses and damaging critical infrastructure on the ground. Such high-value targets would include airfields, command bases, and other military installations. Some have also noted that if outfitted with long-range air-to-air missiles, the J-20 could be utilized to target foreign intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) and refueling aircraft. A 2015 RAND report noted the J-20’s “combination of forward stealth and long range could hold U.S. Navy surface assets at risk, and that a long-range maritime strike capability may be a cause for greater concern than a short-range air-superiority fighter like the F-22.” The J-20’s size and weapons configuration may, however, preclude it from functioning as an effective strike fighter in either context. Importantly, the mission types Chinese pilots are trained for may determine how the J-20 is eventually utilized...
https://chinapower.csis.org/china-chengdu-j-20/

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Re: Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread
« Reply #3389 on: April 21, 2018, 13:26:13 »
PLA Navy definitely sending message (all the more reason for JMSDF to turn big Izumo-class "helicopter destroyers" into F-35B carriers http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/japan-could-buy-f-35bs-put-them-their-sort-aircraft-carriers-24985 ):
Quote
In first, Chinese aircraft carrier performs drills in Pacific, Japanese Defense Ministry says

The Defense Ministry in Tokyo confirmed Saturday that for the first time China has conducted a drill in the Pacific with its sole operating aircraft carrier.

The ministry said it had detected several apparent fighter jets being launched from the Liaoning, which was sailing eastward with six other Chinese Navy vessels some 350 km (over 200 miles) south of Japan’s westernmost island of Yonaguni, in Okinawa Prefecture, on Friday morning.

On Saturday, the carrier and its escorts passed through the Miyako Strait between the islands of Miyako and Okinawa, venturing northwest toward the East China Sea.

The Chinese government had earlier notified vessels in the area of plans to conduct the drill, it said.

The operations by the Chinese Navy came after the Air Self-Defense Force scrambled fighters for three straight days in response to bombers and other aircraft flying in waters near Okinawa Prefecture.

On Friday, two Chinese H-6 heavy bombers flew through the Miyako Strait, while it sent a total of six aircraft, including fighter jets, through the strategic entryway into the Pacific on Thursday. The ASDF also scrambled fighters in response to a sighting of a Chinese Navy drone north of the Miyako Strait on Wednesday.

Japan’s Defense Ministry said earlier this month that Chinese military aircraft had flown through the Miyako Strait a record 36 times in fiscal 2017, as China seeks to extend its reach further into the Western Pacific with what it calls “regular” exercises.

The Chinese Air Force also conducted exercises over the Miyako Strait in late March, labeling the drills “rehearsals for future wars.”

Tokyo and Beijing are embroiled in a dispute over the Japanese-administered Senkaku Islands, known in China as the Diaoyu, in the East China Sea.

China is in the midst of a military modernization program heavily promoted by President Xi Jinping, who has overseen a shift in focus toward creating a more potent fighting force, including projects such as building a second aircraft carrier, integrating stealth fighters into its air force and fielding an array of advanced missiles that can strike air and sea targets from long distances.

Earlier this month, the Liaoning participated in a massive naval fleet review — the country’s largest since 1949 — in the South China Sea.

More than 10,000 service personnel, 48 vessels and 76 aircraft took part in the review, including high-tech submarines and warships as well as advanced fighter jets. More than half of the vessels were commissioned after the Communist Party’s National Congress in 2012, when Xi became the party’s general secretary.
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2018/04/21/national/first-chinese-aircraft-carrier-performs-drills-pacific-japanese-defense-ministry-says/

Photos from a tweet:
https://twitter.com/NavyVessels/status/987513630215188481

Quote

Mark
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Ça explique, mais ça n'excuse pas.

Offline daftandbarmy

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Re: Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread
« Reply #3390 on: April 22, 2018, 11:56:17 »
Lawrence Solomon: China has declared economic war against us — and we’re helping them win

The West has been China's financier and enabler, fecklessly comforting ourselves with the gains gotten from cheaper consumer goods, and putting out of mind the long-term pains that await us

China is systematically hollowing out the West’s industries, not just toys and T-shirts, as was the case decades ago, but increasingly strategic industries vital to national security. China isn’t succeeding simply because of its comparative advantage in cheap labour. It’s succeeding because of its comparative advantage elsewhere — in its ability to overwhelm target industries using the power of the state

http://vancouversun.com/opinion/lawrence-solomon-china-has-declared-economic-war-against-us-and-were-helping-them-win/wcm/f11d724d-c84e-489b-921f-f5be1eefc125

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Re: Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread
« Reply #3391 on: April 24, 2018, 16:05:25 »
Lawrence Solomon: China has declared economic war against us — and we’re helping them win

The West has been China's financier and enabler, fecklessly comforting ourselves with the gains gotten from cheaper consumer goods, and putting out of mind the long-term pains that await us

China is systematically hollowing out the West’s industries, not just toys and T-shirts, as was the case decades ago, but increasingly strategic industries vital to national security. China isn’t succeeding simply because of its comparative advantage in cheap labour. It’s succeeding because of its comparative advantage elsewhere — in its ability to overwhelm target industries using the power of the state

http://vancouversun.com/opinion/lawrence-solomon-china-has-declared-economic-war-against-us-and-were-helping-them-win/wcm/f11d724d-c84e-489b-921f-f5be1eefc125


Which is, roughly, what we said about Germany and Japan fiftyish years ago ... remember the brouaha when Sony bought the US movie studios?

It's also, of course, what the Brits said about the upstart Germans and Americans in the 1870s ...

Now, China is bigger ... bigger than Japan and Germany and the EU and USA combined, so the impact as it "rises," again, is going to be quite marked.

The Chinese and the Indians are, both, emulating late 19th century America: they are trying to "home grow" their economy so that they can make everything they need; that sort of protectionism works in the short term, in the mid to long term it seems to fail ~ at least it does by my reading of economic history over the past 1,000 years or so.
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Re: Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread
« Reply #3392 on: April 25, 2018, 03:06:43 »
A little PAO info from this mornings email.

RUSSIA AND CHINA MILITARIES REACH ‘NEW HEIGHTS’ TOGETHER,  AGREE TO CHALLENGE U.S. IN MIDDLE EAST
http://www.newsweek.com/china-russia-military-reach-new-heights-together-agree-challenge-us-middle-899689
(Newsweek, 24 April 18) Russia and China have pledged to strengthen their bilateral military and political ties as part of a strategic cooperation that challenges U.S. interests, especially to Washington's stance on Middle East allies Syria and Iran.

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Re: Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread
« Reply #3393 on: May 02, 2018, 14:36:47 »
I usually don't agree with NY Times-man Tom Friedman but he's spot on here--Justin Trudeau and his comprador friends should read this piece:

Quote
The U.S. and China Are Finally Having It Out

With the arrival in Beijing this week of America’s top trade negotiators, you might think that the U.S. and China are about to enter high-level talks to avoid a trade war and that this is a story for the business pages. Think again. This is one for the history books.

Five days of meetings in Beijing with Chinese, U.S. and European government officials and business leaders made it crystal clear to me that what’s going on right now is nothing less than a struggle to redefine the rules governing the economic and power relations of the world’s oldest and newest superpowers — America and China. This is not a trade tiff.

“This is a defining moment for U.S.-China relations,” said Ruan Zongze, executive vice president of the Chinese Foreign Ministry’s research institute. “This is about a lot more than trade and tariffs. This is about the future.”

In one corner stand President Trump and his team of China trade hard-liners, whose instinct is basically right: This is a fight worth having now, before it is too late, before China gets too big...

Here’s how we got here: In Act I, U.S.-China relations were all geopolitics, with the U.S. and China against the Soviet Union. That lasted until the late 1970s, when Act II began: China shifted toward capitalism, becoming a huge factory and new market — and 30 years later turned into the world’s second-largest economy.

In large part this was due to the work ethic of the Chinese people, the long-term thinking of China’s leaders and the government’s massive investments in infrastructure and education. But in part it was also due to China’s willingness and ability to bend or ignore rules of the World Trade Organization and, at times, outright cheat.

In some cases China used industrial espionage to just steal innovations from the West. Other moves were more subtle: When China joined the W.T.O. in 2001, it was allowed in as a “developing nation,” subject to very low tariffs on its exports to our country but permitted to impose high tariffs to protect its own rising industries from U.S. and European competition.

The assumption was that as China grew, and the W.T.O. moved to a new regime, China would quickly cut its tariffs — like its 25 percent tax on car imports, compared with the 2.5 percent tariff imposed by the U.S. But the W.T.O. still has not completed a new trade round and China has refused to voluntarily lower its tariffs.

Moreover, China developed an industrial policy that often bent W.T.O. rules...

ACT III opened in October 2015, when China announced its new long-term vision: “Made in China 2025,” a plan to dominate 10 next-generation industries, including robotics, self-driving cars, electric vehicles, artificial intelligence, biotech and aerospace.

When the U.S. and Europe saw this, they basically said: Wow. We were ready to turn the other cheek when your combination of hard work, cheating and industrial policy was focused on low-end industries. But if you use the same strategies to dominate these high-end industries, we’re toast. We need some new rules.

And I heard this as much from E.U. officials as U.S. ones. That is why many E.U. countries are now scrambling to pass new laws to prevent China from buying up their most advanced industries [emphasis added]. And that is why China is telling E.U. countries, as one E.U. official put it, “Whatever you do, don’t join the U.S. camp” on trade [just what China's ambassador is telling us: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-chinas-envoy-assails-canadas-concerns-over-state-owned-takeovers/?cmpid=rss ]. The last thing Beijing wants is a U.S.-E.U. united front demanding it play fair...

Economics is not like war — they can win and we can win. On one condition — we all play by the same rules: hard work and innovation, not hard work and stealing intellectual property, massive government interventions, ignoring W.T.O. rules, lack of reciprocity and forcing Western companies to pay to play inside China.

That is what this moment is about — that’s why it’s a fight worth having. Don’t let the fact that Trump is leading the charge distract from the vital importance of the U.S., Europe and China all agreeing on the same rules for 2025 — before it really is too late...
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/01/opinion/america-china-trump-trade.html

Mark
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Re: Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread
« Reply #3394 on: May 18, 2018, 20:10:00 »
A long article (read it at the link) about China's military growth and the "Decade of concern". The issue, according to one naval analyst is China's timetable, with the ability to invade Taiwan by 2020 and 2049 as the possible end date for China to achieve "global hegemony". This is not to say that war will automatically be triggered on these dates, but rather that China wishes to have the ability starting at these dates to achieve her aims, peacefully if possible, but by force if necessary, whenever they choose after that point.

Quote
If one has not read Xi Jingping's words and realized the supremacist nature of the "China Dream" and carefully watched the nature of China's "rise," then one might innocently ask the obvious question: "Why does it matter that the PRC seeks regional or even global hegemony?"
That is, why can't the world simply abide a "rising China," a seemingly benign term so often employed by Beijing's propaganda organs and PRC supporters worldwide. After all, fewer would be concerned if, say, a "rising Brazil" or a "rising India" sought regional hegemony and proclaimed a desire to "lead the world into the 21st century."

The answer goes to the heart of the nature of China's leadership, and what it does. Under the [Chinese Communist Party] the PRC is an expansionist, coercive, hyper-nationalistic, military and economically powerful, brutally repressive, totalitarian state.

The world has seen what happens when expansionist totalitarian regimes such as this are left unchallenged and unchecked.

I'll leave it to you to read the article and draw your own conclusions. I suspect that the projected timetable may be somewhat more ambitious than practical or possible, and issues like demographics or the "popping" of debt or investment bubbles could seriously throw off any calculations (unfortunately, the net effect might be to advance conflict as desperate leadership cadres look for an "out).

A Vital Warning About China and the Looming 'Decade of Concern'

https://pjmedia.com/claudiarosett/a-vital-warning-about-china-and-the-looming-decade-of-concern/
Dagny, this is not a battle over material goods. It's a moral crisis, the greatest the world has ever faced and the last. Our age is the climax of centuries of evil. We must put an end to it, once and for all, or perish - we, the men of the mind. It was our own guilt. We produced the wealth of the world - but we let our enemies write its moral code.

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Re: Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread
« Reply #3395 on: May 22, 2018, 16:16:53 »
US Navy lacking legs in face of Chinese A2AD:

Quote
Navy’s Top-Dollar Stealth Fighter May Not Go the Distance
New report raises questions about multibillion-dollar program

The Navy’s newest fighter jet, the stealthy F-35C, may not have the range it needs to strike enemy targets, the House Armed Services Committee said in a new report, raising troubling questions about whether the multibillion-dollar program is already outpaced by threats.

And critics say the Navy fighter — part of the Joint Strike Fighter initiative, the most expensive weapons program in history — may actually have been out of date years ago.

The committee’s conclusion, buried in the 606-page report on the fiscal 2019 defense authorization bill, is confirmation from lawmakers who support the jet program that the aircraft carrier-based version of the F-35 may not have enough effective range without refueling to function well in likely future wars.

“While the introduction of the F-35C will significantly expand stealth capabilities, the F-35C could require increased range to address necessary targets,” the report states.

The reason, experts say, is that the aircraft carriers from which the F-35Cs would operate may be required to sail too far away from enemies to avoid their increasingly long-range missiles...

If the Navy has to sail its carriers in the neighborhood of 1,000 nautical miles away from increasingly long-range missiles, then its stealthy F-35Cs will have to be refueled by tanker aircraft that are not stealthy.

The F-35Cs have an effective range — known as a combat radius (or the distance from the carrier they can operate) — that is now projected as 670 nautical miles.

The refueling operations would expose the fighter jets and tankers to adversaries, defeating the value of the F-35C’s radar-evading materials and sleek silhouette. Lt. Lauren Chatmas, a Navy spokeswoman, said the risk is “acceptable” because the refueling will occur far from enemy threats. But Clark maintains enemy fighters might still find U.S. aircraft even hundreds of miles out if any are not stealthy.

Alternatively, the Navy could operate its carriers — which have self-defense capabilities — closer to enemy territory or nearer to enemy warships and aircraft. But that would raise the risk to these floating cities, each of which typically carries more than 6,000 sailors and costs roughly $13 billion.

‘Carrier killer’ missile

The Navy has already bought 28 of the jets and requested nine more for fiscal 2019. It won’t deploy F-35Cs on a carrier until 2021.

But the likely inadequacy of the F-35C’s combat radius should not surprise the Navy, experts say.

Approximately a decade ago, China finished developing its “carrier killer,” the DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missile, with a reported range of 780 nautical miles, though the People’s Liberation Army is reportedly still perfecting the system for giving the missile targeting information.

The U.S. Tomahawk cruise missile has a range in excess of 1,000 nautical miles, and the Navy expects to field an anti-ship variant in four years. Given Chinese and Russian advances, and the fact that F-35s will fly for 60 years, the realistic prospect of adversaries’ having the ability to hold carriers at risk from 1,000 nautical miles or more during the F-35’s lifespan was foreseeable, critics say.

Already, China’s CSS-5 anti-ship cruise missile can strike ships about 930 miles away, the Defense Intelligence Agency has testified...

The committee’s report directs the Navy secretary to brief the Armed Services panels by January 2019 on options, including manned and unmanned aircraft that would “expand the strike range of a carrier air wing in a contested environment.” That could include “developing a stealth tanker capability, improved engine technology or to develop and procure a strike capability that is purposely built to strike at increased range.”..
https://www.rollcall.com/news/policy/f-35c-navy-stealth-range

Note that designs competing for USN's carrier-borne MQ-25A Stingray tanker UAV are not required to be stealthy:
https://news.usni.org/2018/04/09/navy-prioritizing-speed-field-price-mq-25a-stingray-program

Mark
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Re: Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread
« Reply #3396 on: May 23, 2018, 20:45:07 »
The latest from Bloomberg:

Quote
Trudeau Blocks Chinese Takeover of Aecon on Security Grounds
By Josh Wingrove

May 23, 2018, 5:24 PM EDT Updated on May 23, 2018, 7:38 PM EDT

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government announced its decision Wednesday after launching a security review of the C$1.2 billion ($930 million) deal earlier this year, according to a statement from Innovation Minister Navdeep Bains obtained by Bloomberg News. A representative from Toronto-based Aecon said the company is aware of the government’s decision and will be issuing a response.

U.S. President Donald Trump earlier this year blocked Broadcom Ltd.’s hostile takeover of Qualcomm Inc. because it could “impair the national security of the United States.” Trump has killed several foreign deals involving China since taking office and his administration continues to spar with China over trade. This is the first major foreign takeover blocked by the Trudeau government since he won power in 2015.

“We listened to the advice of our national security agencies throughout the multi-step national security review process under the Investment Canada Act,” Bains said in the statement. “Based on their findings, in order to protect national security, we ordered CCCI not to implement the proposed investment.”

Canada is “open to international investment that creates jobs and increases prosperity, but not at the expense of national security,” Bains added.

Stock Falls

Shares of Aecon, which helped build Toronto’s iconic CN Tower, declined in recent weeks to the lowest since the deal was announced in October on concern that it would be blocked. Aecon’s construction work includes several sectors that could impact national security, including building out the nation’s telecommunications networks.

Aecon closed at C$17.34 in Toronto trading Wednesday, 14 percent below the C$20.27 a share offer from CCCC International Holding Ltd. to acquire the construction firm. Before the recent declines, there was widespread speculation in Canada that the deal might be approved as Trudeau sought warmer ties with China.

Clear Evidence

A person familiar with the file, speaking on condition they not be identified, said the government did its due diligence and ultimately followed the advice of Canadian national security agencies that had reviewed the deal and had information that was not publicly available.

Aecon’s project portfolio includes work in sensitive fields such as telecommunications, nuclear power and military housing and training facilities, Anita Anand, a professor of law at the University of Toronto who holds J.R. Kimber Chair in Investor Protection and Corporate Governance, said in an interview before the decision was announced. She had called for it to be blocked.

“There is clear evidence that there are national security issues at play in this transaction,” she said in an earlier interview. If government sees “reasonable grounds to believe there’s a potential injury to national security, then it should intervene.”

Considering Trade Talks

Aecon operates companies across the mining, infrastructure, energy and services industries, building projects from factories, roads and sewers to theaters, book stores and hotels, according to its website. CCCI’s Beijing-based parent is one of the largest engineering and construction companies in the world. Its core businesses include infrastructure construction and design and dredging, with revenue of $62 billion.

The move comes at a critical point for the future of the country’s trade relationships. Canada is considering launching trade talks with China as it seeks to become less reliant on the U.S. market. It is also haggling with the U.S. and Mexico over how to update the North American Free Trade Agreement.

Chinese acquisitions in Canada’s economy have cooled since 2012, when the previous Conservative government imposed limits on investment by state-owned enterprises in the energy sector following CNOOC Ltd.’s takeover of Nexen Inc. in Alberta.

In 2009, national security considerations were formally added as a consideration under Canada’s foreign investment review process. The Canadian Security Intelligence Service warned in 2012 that some foreign state-owned enterprises may represent a threat to national security.

— With assistance by Scott Deveau

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Years ago, fairy tales all began with, "Once upon a time." Now we know they all began with, "If I'm elected."

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Offline MarkOttawa

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Re: Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread
« Reply #3398 on: May 28, 2018, 15:41:53 »
Wow! CSIS throws down the gauntlet to Justin Trudeau, Liberal Party and our comprador class--a few excerpts from a very major paper, how will China react?

Quote
RETHINKING SECURITY
CHINA AND THE AGE OF
STRATEGIC RIVALRY

Highlights from an Academic Outreach Workshop
...
Whether a Chinese partner company is a state-owned enterprise
or a private one, it will have close and increasingly explicit ties
to the CCP.

Unless trade agreements are carefully vetted for national
security implications, Beijing will use its commercial position
to gain access to businesses, technologies and infrastructure
that can be exploited for intelligence objectives, or to potentially
compromise a partner’s security.

China is prepared to use threats and enticements to bring
business and political elites to its side, and motivate them to
defend the Chinese perspective on disputes such as the status
of Taiwan and the South China Sea.
 
Beijing works actively to influence ethnic Chinese groups,
Chinese students and ethnic Chinese businesses in other
countries, often curtailing their freedom of expression to
promote a narrative favourable to its views. It has also often
purchased control of local Chinese-language news outlets.
 
Academics and reporters who question Chinese activities are
harassed by Chinese diplomats and Chinese-controlled media...

China’s  military  is  investing  significantly  in  technology, 
innovating to rival the US in the military application of artificial
intelligence, unmanned weapons systems, quantum computing,
and directed-energy weapons.

...China’s continued rise is not inevitable and may yet elicit
international action both to contain and accommodate its ambitions.
For now, its dominance strategy appears relentless and irresistible...
https://www.canada.ca/content/dam/csis-scrs/documents/publications/CSIS-Academic-Outreach-China-report-May-2018-en.pdf

Just about as blunt as one can get.  One also wonders how the current gov't will react.

Mark
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Re: Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread
« Reply #3399 on: June 01, 2018, 14:02:00 »
UK Guardian story on what above CSIS report from meeting of academics says on New Zealand:

Quote
Chinese interference in New Zealand at 'critical' stage, says Canada spy report
Jacinda Ardern says country is ‘vigilant’ and that Five Eyes membership is not being questioned

A report released by Canada’s spy agency has warned that New Zealand, one of its closest allies, has been influenced at every level of society by the Chinese government, and that the situation has reached a “critical” stage.

The report states that New Zealand is viewed as “the soft underbelly” of its western big brothers such as the UK and US.

“President Xi Jinping is driving a multi-dimensional strategy to lift China to global dominance,” it stated, and New Zealand was a key pawn in its strategy, with the government regarding its relations with the island nation as “an exemplar” of how it would like to steer future relations with other states.

The report was published by the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) but does not reflect the spy agency’s official views, and was based on reports to CSIS during an academic workshop [emphasis added--see p. 81 PDF here https://www.canada.ca/content/dam/csis-scrs/documents/publications/CSIS-Academic-Outreach-China-report-May-2018-en.pdf].

The report claimed New Zealand’s business, political and intellectual elite had all been targeted by the Chinese Communist party, and that business tie-ups with companies, universities and research centres had been used to “influence activities and to provide access to military technology, commercial secrets and other strategic information”.

“Massive efforts” had also been made to bring Chinese-language media and Chinese community groups under the party’s control, and political donations have been made, it said.

“New Zealand provides a vivid case study of China’s willingness to use economic ties to interfere with the political life of a partner country,” the report stated, warning that smaller states were “particularly vulnerable” to Chinese influence. New Zealand is home to just 4.7 million people.

“An aggressive strategy has sought to influence political decision-making, pursue unfair advantages in trade and business, suppress criticism of China, facilitate espionage opportunities, and influence overseas Chinese communities.”..

The country’s membership of the Five Eyes (an intelligence sharing network between Australia, the US, the United Kingdom, Canada and New Zealand) as well as Nato and other important military partnerships is also appealing.

“New Zealand’s economic, political and military relationship with the PRC [People’s Republic of China] is seen by Beijing as a model for relations with Australia, the small island nations in the south Pacific, and more broadly other western states” the report said.

“Some of these activities endanger New Zealand’s national security directly, while others have a more long-term corrosive effect.”

New Zealand’s prime minister, Jacinda Ardern, said New Zealand had a “very strong” relationship with Canada, particularly with its prime minister, Justin Trudeau. “I have had no indication that our Five Eyes membership is under question, from Canada or any other of our partners, nor have I heard that it has been raised with any of my colleagues,” she said...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jun/01/chinese-interference-in-new-zealand-at-critical-stage-says-canada-spy-report

Mark
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Ça explique, mais ça n'excuse pas.