Author Topic: Venezuela Superthread- Merged  (Read 98584 times)

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Offline Altair

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Re: Venezuela Superthread- Merged
« Reply #275 on: August 03, 2017, 12:49:43 »
We can set aside more resources to securing our borders against potential terrorist and criminal threats spilling out of unstable South American countries and Mexico.

Our border? As in the one with the USA?

I trust the USA would be able to filter out most of what you're talking about from reaching the canadian border, and I trust the CBSA to get whatever the Americans miss. Don't see much of a CAF role there.
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We can prepare for humanitarian relief missions in these areas if the situation collapses.
Reasonable, but it depends on how the situation goes down. If it turns into a civil war,  and Maduro still has control of the Army, there isn't much I can see Canada doing. Maybe set up in neighboring nations, if they would have us.
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We could potentially secure the area and set up things like the Strategic Advisory Team which we had in Afghanistan to essentially mentor and instruct any new government in how to conduct business to Western standards
Again, it depends on how the situation shapes out. If Maduro goes out peacefully, sure, I can see that, if he goes out fighting I don't see that happening, if Maduro manages to hold on no way, if it's complete and total anarchy like Somalia I would say no. How many eventualities do we need to plan for?
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We might even have to contemplate securing oil infrastructure in the case of Venezuela ITO prevent environmental disasters.
Also depends on how the situation on the ground shapes out.
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And that is just off the top of my head.
While I agree that there could be a role for Canada and the CAF to play, I think it depends on how things on the ground play out.

Venezuela could just turn into a full fledged dictatorship with little turmoil. It could turn into a civil war. It could peacefully embrace democracy. It could violently embrace democracy. It could violently embrace dictatorship. Any of these can happen now, or ten years from now.

I just don't see what Canada can do at this point given the instability going on in Venezuela.
Someday I'll care about milpoints.

Offline Colin P

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Re: Venezuela Superthread- Merged
« Reply #276 on: August 03, 2017, 17:24:24 »
Having traveled a bit there, I can tell you that outside of the main highway system (decent), roads deteriorate quickly and get worse during the rainy season. You have multiple different terrain and ecosystems, including a sabana that becomes a flooded region for part of the year, rolling grasslands in the Gran Sabana, almost Alpine like in the SW, Jungle, tropical Forests, arid regions and dry coastal hills. It will be quite defensible.   

Offline Thucydides

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Re: Venezuela Superthread- Merged
« Reply #277 on: October 11, 2017, 11:40:36 »
Continuing economic collapse in Venezuela:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-10/imf-sees-venezuelan-inflation-rate-rising-beyond-2-300-in-2018

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IMF Says Venezuela's Inflation Rate May Rise Beyond 2,300% in 2018
By Patricia Laya  and Catarina Saraiva
October 10, 2017 at 09:00:00 EDT
Next year’s price estimate increased from a previous 2,069%
GDP estimates for 2017, 2018 revised down to 12% and 6%

Venezuela’s triple-digit annual inflation rate is set to jump to more than 2,300 percent in 2018, the highest estimate for any country tracked by the International Monetary Fund.

An intensifying political crisis that’s spiraled since 2014 has weighed heavily on economic activity. Gross domestic product is expected to contract 6 percent next year, after shrinking an estimated 12 percent in 2017, the IMF said in its latest World Economic Outlook report published Tuesday.

While Venezuela’s central bank stopped publishing inflation data in December 2015, the IMF argues the country’s consumer prices are estimated to leap 2,349.3 percent in 2018, the highest in their estimates, followed by the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s 44 percent. As oil production declines and uncertainty increases, unemployment is forecast to increase to about 30 percent in 2018, also the highest and followed by South Africa’s 28 percent and Greece’s 21 percent.

The Bolivarian Republic isn’t current with most of its key economic statistics, leaving economists scant data to crunch. Before Venezuela’s new legislative super body took over the functions of the country’s only remaining opposition-run institution this year, the sidelined National Assembly had started publishing its own inflation index due to the lack of official data. Bloomberg’s Cafe Con Leche Index puts the annual rate at 650 percent.
Dagny, this is not a battle over material goods. It's a moral crisis, the greatest the world has ever faced and the last. Our age is the climax of centuries of evil. We must put an end to it, once and for all, or perish - we, the men of the mind. It was our own guilt. We produced the wealth of the world - but we let our enemies write its moral code.

Offline Thucydides

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Re: Venezuela Superthread- Merged
« Reply #278 on: October 23, 2017, 11:54:13 »
It now seems that the Venezuelans are resorting to creative accounting in order to pay the bills (i.e. it is suggested they are stiffing one set of creditors to keep the cash for a different set of creditors). An interesting side note which is not really explored or followed up is the involvement of the Russians in supporting the Venezuelan economy. Considering their challenges with depressed oil prices and sanctions crippling the Russian economy, they could be dragged down with Venezuela if/when there is an default or an economic collapse. I also believe the Chinese have invested heavily (several billion dollars) into propping up Venezuela, so they too could be in for an interesting time:

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/20/venezuela-is-blowing-debt-payments-ahead-of-a-huge-make-or-break-bill.html

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Venezuela is blowing debt payments ahead of a huge, make-or-break bill

Venezuela's state oil giant has two massive bond payments coming due in the next two weeks.
The oil-dependent nation missed several debt payments totaling nearly $350 million last week.
Analysts don't expect Venezuela to default in the coming weeks, but the missed payments have rattled the market.

Tom DiChristopher   | @tdichristopher
Published 2:00 PM ET Fri, 20 Oct 2017  Updated 2:28 PM ET Fri, 20 Oct 2017
CNBC.com

One week before Venezuela faces a critical debt payment, the distressed petrostate is already late on a series of smaller bills — and no one can say exactly why.

The nation's state-owned oil giant, Petroleos de Venezuela, SA, has two major bond payments totaling about $2 billion coming due in the next two weeks. While the market expects the company, better known as PDVSA, to avoid default, the missed payments have rattled investors and raised fresh questions about how long embattled President Nicolas Maduro's regime might last.

"You're cutting close to the edge of not enough money in the checking account to pay the bills," said Ray Zucaro, chief investment officer at RVX Asset Management, an asset manager specializing in emerging and frontier markets.

Last week, Venezuela missed five coupon payments totaling nearly $350 million tied to the debt of PDVSA, the government and the utility Electricidad de Caracas. That stoked a minor sell-off in a number of outstanding bonds.

As for the upcoming payments, the first is due next Friday. The price of that bond dipped from a one-year high of $86.80 last week to $83.48 on Monday. It has rallied from a 12-month low of $62.50 on Aug. 1.

PDVSA needs to pay $841 million in principal, plus interest, on that bond. It's a critical moment for Venezuela because a default is seen as hastening Maduro's demise. Making matters worse, the collateral against the bond is Citgo, PDVSA's Houston-based refining and retail subsidiary.

The following week, on Nov. 2, a nearly $1.2 billion PDVSA bond is maturing. Total outstanding obligations for 2017 are about $3.4 billion, and there's no grace period for the two biggest payments.

As Venezuela's economic and political crisis worsens, foreign reserves have dwindled to just $9.9 billion. But analysts and money managers say more than half of that could be in gold and illiquid assets.

The market currently puts the odds of a Venezuelan default at 15 percent, according to an analysis by RVX Asset Management, but Zucaro said he believes the chances are closer to 40 percent. The environment is deteriorating, he said, as Venezuela's latest election results are being questioned and as sanctions on the country expand to include measures that prevent it from raising new funds.

Given the severe cash crunch, it's possible that Venezuela skipped out on the five coupon payments, which have a 30-day grace period, in order to allocate those funds to the payment due on the Oct. 27 bond, Zucaro said.

Edward Glossop, an emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, said that's possible. Since Venezuela is essentially locked out of capital markets, the impact of missing the payments on its ability to borrow is negligible, he said.

But Glossop believes another explanation is more likely: that U.S. sanctions have created technical problems that have forced Venezuela to make alternative arrangements to pay its debt, delaying payments. Some U.S. institutions could be refusing to deal with the government for fear of sanctions, he said. However, he doesn't doubt Maduro's willingness or ability to pay, given that making debt payments has been a priority.

Capital Economics projects that Venezuela is unlikely to default until 2019, though Glossop says it faces another round of hefty payments in 2018.

"Next year is quite tough again. It will be sort of touch and go," he said. "If oil prices remain where they are, we think they could get through."

Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, believes Maduro will continue to rely on Russia to bail out the regime. Russia's biggest oil company, Rosneft, has given PDVSA financial support.

"While it makes sense that they will preserve as much cash to avoid default, they will not be able to do it without Russia. So the question will be how much acreage will this cost them?" she said in an email. "Rosneft is acquiring Venezuelan assets at fire sale prices."
Dagny, this is not a battle over material goods. It's a moral crisis, the greatest the world has ever faced and the last. Our age is the climax of centuries of evil. We must put an end to it, once and for all, or perish - we, the men of the mind. It was our own guilt. We produced the wealth of the world - but we let our enemies write its moral code.

Offline Thucydides

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Re: Venezuela Superthread- Merged
« Reply #279 on: November 15, 2017, 10:36:10 »
The nation goes into default. And in a zen like fit of unself awareness, CNN finishes with: "This story has been updated to characterize Venezuela's government as socialist".

http://money.cnn.com/2017/11/14/news/economy/venezuela-debt-default-sp/index.html

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Venezuela just defaulted, moving deeper into crisis
by Patrick Gillespie   @CNNMoney
November 14, 2017: 8:10 AM ET   

Venezuela's crisis taking a toll on its children

Venezuela, a nation spiraling into a humanitarian crisis, has missed a debt payment. It could soon face grim consequences.
The South American country defaulted on its debt, according to a statement issued Monday night by S&P Global Ratings. The agency said the 30-day grace period had expired for a payment that was due in October.

A debt default risks setting off a dangerous series of events that could exacerbate Venezuela's food and medical shortages.

If enough holders of a particular bond demand full and immediate repayment, it can prompt investors across all Venezuelan bonds to demand the same thing. Since Venezuela doesn't have the money to pay all its bondholders right now, investors would then be entitled to seize the country's assets -- primarily barrels of oil -- outside its borders.

Venezuela has no other meaningful income other than the oil it sells abroad. The government, meanwhile, has failed for years to ship in enough food and medicine for its citizens. As a result, Venezuelans are waiting hours in line to buy food and dying in hospitals that lack basic resources.

If investors seize the country's oil shipments, the food and medical shortages would worsen quickly.

"Then it's pandemonium," says Fernando Freijedo, an analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, a research firm. "The humanitarian crisis is already pretty dire ... it boggles the mind what could happen next."

It's not immediately clear what steps bondholders will take. Argentina went through a vaguely similar default, and its bondholders battled with the government for about 15 years until settling in 2016. Every case is different, though.
Related: Venezuela admits it can't pay all its debts anymore

Venezuela and its state-run oil company, PDVSA, owe more than $60 billion just to bondholders. In total, the country owes far more: $196 billion, according to a paper published by the Harvard Law Roundtable and authored by lawyers Mark Walker and Richard Cooper.
Beyond bond payments, Venezuela owes money to China, Russia, oil service providers, U.S. airlines and many other entities. The nation's central bank only has $9.6 billion in reserves because it has slowly drained its bank account over the years to make payments.

The S&P default announcement Monday came after Venezuelan government officials met with bondholders in Caracas. The meeting was reportedly brief and offered no clarity on how the government plans to restructure its debt.
venezuela reserves nov 2017

The Venezuelan government blames its debt woes -- and inability to pay -- on a longstanding "economic war" waged by the U.S. More recently, the Trump administration slapped financial sanctions on Venezuela and PDVSA, barring banks in the U.S. from trading or investing in any newly issued Venezuelan debt.

But experts say the socialist Venezuelan regime that has been in power since 1999 bears the brunt of the blame. It fixed -- or froze -- prices on everything from a cup of coffee to a tank of gas in an effort to make goods more affordable for the masses. For years, Venezuelan leaders also fixed the exchange rate for their currency, the bolivar.

Related: Venezuela is blaming Trump for missed debt payments

Those moves were among the driving forces behind the food shortages. Farmers couldn't sell at low prices without going out of business because their cost of production was much higher. Importers also couldn't afford to ship in food, knowing they would have to sell at much lower prices than what they paid for at the port.

When food shortages grew worse, an illegal black market emerged where venders sold basic foods at vastly higher prices than the government's artificially low prices. Inflation soared, making the bolivar almost worthless.

One U.S. dollar currently buys more than 55,200 bolivars. At the beginning of the year, a dollar was worth about 3,200 bolivars, according to dolartoday.com, a website that tracks the unofficial rate that millions in Venezuela use to determine payments.

The International Monetary Fund predicts that inflation in Venezuela will hit 650% this year and 2,300% in 2018.

--This story has been updated to characterize Venezuela's government as socialist.
Dagny, this is not a battle over material goods. It's a moral crisis, the greatest the world has ever faced and the last. Our age is the climax of centuries of evil. We must put an end to it, once and for all, or perish - we, the men of the mind. It was our own guilt. We produced the wealth of the world - but we let our enemies write its moral code.

Offline Thucydides

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Re: Venezuela Superthread- Merged
« Reply #280 on: December 15, 2017, 12:48:41 »
Floods of refugees flee the socialist paradise. Ether a crackdown of exiting or a "wall" may be the government's response, but who knows how long things can remain the way they are now?

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2017/12/14/flood-venezuelans-fleeing-their-depressed-country/941463001/

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Flood of Venezuelans are fleeing depressed country. Here's where they're seeking refuge
Simeon Tegel, Special to USA TODAY Published 2:31 p.m. ET Dec. 14, 2017 | Updated 8:01 a.m. ET Dec. 15, 2017

LIMA, Peru — It is 8 a.m. and the line of Venezuelan refugees outside the Interpol office already stretches to the end of the block.

Most have just arrived in Lima with not much more than the clothes on their back and are here applying for a certificate to show they have no criminal record, a requirement for a work permit in Peru.

“Leaving was tough, but staying would have been tougher,” said Andrea Sequiera, 29, as she waits at the back of the line with her husband Luis, 31, and 8-year-old son Fabian. ”We know lots of people who would like to get out of Venezuela but can’t afford the ticket.”

Although Venezuelans for years have been fleeing the “socialist revolution” first launched by the late Hugo Chávez in 1999, in recent months the trickle has turned into a flood as living conditions become ever more dire — from hyperinflation to acute shortages of food and medicine to one of the worst homicide rates in the world.

More: Trump administration unleashes more Venezuela sanctions following state election problems

More: Venezuela's latest deadly plight: AIDS

In response to protests over the once-wealthy country's seeming demise, President Nicolás Maduro’s increasingly authoritarian regime has cracked down on opponents, making prospects for improved times less and less likely.

While many exiles had fled to the United States, surging numbers, like the Sequieras, now head to other Latin American nations. The change probably stems from President Trump’s tough anti-immigration stance and the fact that fewer Venezuelans can afford the airfare.

From Mexico to Argentina, immigration agencies are reporting skyrocketing numbers of Venezuelan arrivals, doubling and even tripling the total for previous years.

The Sequieras have been in Lima just four days, after a grueling six-day bus trip from their native Valencia, Venezuela’s third-largest city. They rented a small room in a gritty eastern suburb and are now looking to start a new life in Peru.

The Sequieras became desperate as their wages became increasingly worthless — Andrea’s pay as a human resources coordinator and her husband's at Empresas Polar, Venezuela’s largest food and beverage company. “The worst thing is not being able to feed him,” she said nodding toward their son.

The final straw came when a tire on their car ruptured beyond repair and they couldn't find a replacement, making the vehicle useless — in the nation with the world’s largest proven oil reserves. Then the couple spent five days searching in vain for an antibiotic to treat a boil on young Fabian’s arm.

Peru introduced a special temporary visa in February to address the growing humanitarian crisis in Venezuela. Nearly 30,000 Venezuelans have applied so far for the visa, which includes a temporary work permit.

The exodus from Venezuela has caused tension in some Latin American countries. In Panama, the flood of citizens from the much larger neighbor now competing for jobs has stoked nationalistic sentiment, said Harold Trinkunas, an international security expert at Stanford University who grew up in Venezuela. Panama responded by tightening visa requirements.

Other countries have coped better, particularly Colombia, which has called on its extensive refugee system, originally created to help those displaced from its civil war that recently ended.

Another change is that most Venezuelan immigrants are now simply looking to survive, instead of wanting to send money back home to support family members, said Garrinzon González, who runs the Venezuelan Union in Peru, a self-help group for immigrants in Lima that has nearly 20,000 Facebook followers.

“There’s nothing to buy in the shops in Venezuela now anyway,” he said. “Here you can have a roof over your head and stable work very quickly after you arrive.”

The Venezuelan diaspora is estimated to be about 1.1 million — more than 4% of the population — although the country long ago stopped publishing official numbers. Many hope to return to Venezuela and help their homeland recover once there is a political transition. They don't know when that might happen, and the longer they stay abroad, the more they put down roots.

“I want to go back and help lift my country up again, but I am at an age where I want to be established and have a family,” said Patricia Acosta, 38, an MBA who arrived in Peru in April and now consults for the Spanish telecom giant Telefónica. “This really hurts. Venezuelans don’t have a culture of emigration. The expectation is that grandparents will see their grandkids growing up.”

That may hinder Venezuela’s recovery, because most emigrants are university-educated professionals who play a vital role in the economy. “Venezuela’s brain drain is a brain gain for its neighbors,” Trinkunas said.

The Sequieras are not even thinking that far ahead. Their priority is to sort out their papers, find work, rent an apartment and get Fabian back to school as quickly as possible.

 “We want to make friends and have a good life here,” Andrea Sequiera said. “We would like to go back, but right now we are focused on just rebuilding our lives.”
Dagny, this is not a battle over material goods. It's a moral crisis, the greatest the world has ever faced and the last. Our age is the climax of centuries of evil. We must put an end to it, once and for all, or perish - we, the men of the mind. It was our own guilt. We produced the wealth of the world - but we let our enemies write its moral code.

Offline Thucydides

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Re: Venezuela Superthread- Merged
« Reply #281 on: December 28, 2017, 14:59:38 »
Venezuelans stop accepting Bolivars for day to day economic activities. The real question is how long can this go on?:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-economy/venezuelans-scramble-to-survive-as-merchants-demand-dollars-idUSKBN1EK0XK

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Venezuelans scramble to survive as merchants demand dollars
Eyanir Chinea, Maria Ramirez

CARACAS/CIUDAD GUAYANA, Venezuela (Reuters) - There was no way Jose Ramon Garcia, a food transporter in Venezuela, could afford new tires for his van at $350 each.

Whether he opted to pay in U.S. currency or in the devalued local bolivar currency at the equivalent black market price, Garcia would have had to save up for years.

Though used to expensive repairs, this one was too much and put him out of business. “Repairs cost an arm and a leg in Venezuela,” said the now-unemployed 42-year-old Garcia, who has a wife and two children to support in the southern city of Guayana.

“There’s no point keeping bolivars.”

For a decade and a half, strict exchange controls have severely limited access to dollars. A black market in hard currency has spread in response, and as once-sky-high oil revenue runs dry, Venezuela’s economy is in free-fall.

The practice adopted by gourmet and design stores in Caracas over the last couple of years to charge in dollars to a select group of expatriates or Venezuelans with access to greenbacks is fast spreading.

Food sellers, dental and medical clinics, and others are starting to charge in dollars or their black market equivalent - putting many basic goods and services out of reach for a large number of Venezuelans.

According to the opposition-led National Assembly, November’s rise in prices topped academics’ traditional benchmark for hyperinflation of more than 50 percent a month - and could end the year at 2,000 percent. The government has not published inflation data for more than a year.

“I can’t think in bolivars anymore, because you have to give a different price every hour,” said Yoselin Aguirre, 27, who makes and sells jewelry in the Paraguana peninsula and has recently pegged prices to the dollar. “To survive, you have to dollarize.”

The socialist government of the late president Hugo Chavez in 2003 brought in the strict controls in order to curb capital flight, as the wealthy sought to move money out of Venezuela after a coup attempt and major oil strike the previous year.

Oil revenue was initially able to bolster artificial exchange rates, though the black market grew and now is becoming unmanageable for the government.

President Nicolas Maduro has maintained his predecessor’s policies on capital controls. Yet, the spread between the strongest official rate, of some 10 bolivars per dollar, and the black market rate, of around 110,000 per dollar, is now huge.

While sellers see a shift to hard currency as necessary, buyers sometimes blame them for speculating.

Rafael Vetencourt, 55, a steel worker in Ciudad Guayana, needed a prostate operation priced at $250.

“We don’t earn in dollars. It’s abusive to charge in dollars!” said Vetencourt, who had to decimate his savings to pay for the surgery.

In just one year, Venezuela’s currency has weakened 97.5 per cent against the greenback, meaning $1,000 of local currency purchased then would be worth just $25 now.

Maduro blames black market rate-publishing websites such as DolarToday for inflating the numbers, part of an “economic war” he says is designed by the opposition and Washington to topple him.

On Venezuela’s borders with Brazil and Colombia, the prices of imported oil, eggs and wheat flour vary daily in line with the black market price for bolivars.

In an upscale Caracas market, cheese-filled arepas, the traditional breakfast made with corn flour, increased 65 percent in price in just two weeks, according to tracking by Reuters reporters. In the same period, a kilogram of ham jumped a whopping 171 percent.

The runaway prices have dampened Christmas celebrations, which this season were characterized by shortages of pine trees and toys, as well as meat, chicken and cornmeal for the preparation of typical dishes.

In one grim festive joke, a Christmas tree in Maracaibo, the country’s oil capital and second city, was decorated with virtually worthless low-denomination bolivar bills.

Most Venezuelans, earning just $5 a month at the black market rate, are nowhere near being able to save hard currency.

“How do I do it? I earn in bolivars and have no way to buy foreign currency,” said Cristina Centeno, a 31-year-old teacher who, like many, was seeking remote work online before Christmas in order to bring in some hard currency.

Additional reporting by Andreina Aponte and Leon Wietfeld in Caracas, Mircely Guanipa in Maracay, Anggy Polanco in San Cristobal, Lenin Danieri in Maracaibo; Writing by Girish Gupta; Editing by Leslie Adler
Dagny, this is not a battle over material goods. It's a moral crisis, the greatest the world has ever faced and the last. Our age is the climax of centuries of evil. We must put an end to it, once and for all, or perish - we, the men of the mind. It was our own guilt. We produced the wealth of the world - but we let our enemies write its moral code.

Offline Thucydides

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Re: Venezuela Superthread- Merged
« Reply #282 on: January 02, 2018, 14:02:12 »
As the economy collapses, Venezuela tries to apply band-aids. As anyone who is following the "living wage" movement story in places as diverse as California and Ontario know, artificially raising minimum wages (disconnected to productivity) simply prices unskilled labour out of the job market. A 40% increase decreed by Venezuela's government will have similar effects in an economy which is already suffering dire distortions:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/venezuela-inflation-minimum-wage-increase-president-nicolas-maduro-economic-crisis-a8137056.html

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Venezuela raises minimum wage by 40% as economic crisis deepens
Economists warn move will accelerate inflation in country where price rises have plunged millions into poverty
Chris Baynes Monday 1 January 2018 19:30 GMT

Venezuela is to raise its minimum wage by 40 per cent, a move which could worsen high levels of inflation in the crisis-stricken nation.

President Nicolas Maduro said the new pay level would protect workers against what he called Washington’s “economic war” on socialism.

But most economists say his socialist government is in fact stoking a vicious cycle in a country already wrestling with the world’s fastest inflation.

The new minimum wage will come into force in January, President Maduro announced during a televised end-of-year speech, and follows six previous pay hikes in 2017.

The move is intended to counter quickening inflation coupled with a depreciating bolivar, a situation that has plunged millions of people into poverty in the once-thriving oil-rich nation.

Venezuelans will now earn at least 797,510 bolivars a month, factoring in food tickets – or just over $7 (£5.10) on the widely used black market index. Millions will still be unable to afford three meals a day or basic medicine, while the increase is likely to stoke inflation further.

Prices went up 1,369 per cent between January and November last year, according to figures released by the opposition-led Congress, which estimated the 2017 rate would top 2,000 per cent.

Economists generally say a country is in hyperinflation when the monthly rate tops 50 per cent for three months, or annual rates remain above three digits for three years.

Venezuela’s central bank reported inflation of 180 per cent and 240 per cent in 2015 and 2016, which had been the highest on record. It has since stopped publishing inflation data.

Opposition politicians say President Maduro’s refusal to overhaul Venezuela‘s state-led economic model and stop excessive printing of money will create more misery in 2018.

The President, however, spent much of his half-hour address blaming others for the country’s woes.

He said foreign and local media were spreading “negative propaganda”€ while Venezuela was facing “attacks” on its currency, and there were attempts to “sabotage” its oil industry.

Hundreds of Venezuelans took to the streets in parts of the capital Caracas last week to protest a shortage of pork for traditional Christmas meals.

President Maduro’s government had promised to provide subsidised meat to Venezuelans at the end of a fourth year of recession, but in many parts it did not materialise and frustrations boiled over.
Dagny, this is not a battle over material goods. It's a moral crisis, the greatest the world has ever faced and the last. Our age is the climax of centuries of evil. We must put an end to it, once and for all, or perish - we, the men of the mind. It was our own guilt. We produced the wealth of the world - but we let our enemies write its moral code.

Offline Thucydides

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Re: Venezuela Superthread- Merged
« Reply #283 on: January 18, 2018, 08:48:46 »
Slow motion collapse continues. A possible benefit for Canada is the removal of Venezuelan oil from the market will temporarily spike prices and provide some extra revenue for Canadian producers.

https://pjmedia.com/instapundit/286288/

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LATE-STAGE SOCIALISM: Venezuela’s Oil Production Is Collapsing. “Sharp drop in output increases the odds of a debt default, worsens economic crisis.”

Production fell 216,000 barrels a day to 1.6 million in a month to December, the 15th consecutive monthly decline, according to data reported by Venezuelan government to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries released Thursday. During 2017 as a whole, Venezuelan output fell 649,000 barrels a day, a decline of 29%.

This ranks among the deepest declines in the industry’s recent history. Russia’s output slid 23% during the fall of the Soviet Union, and Iraq’s output dropped by the same share after the 2003 U.S. invasion, according to data from OPEC and BP Statistical Review.

The decline has been caused by a deep economic crisis and widespread corruption and mismanagement, compounded by a purge of state-run Petroleos de Venezuela SA by President Nicolás Maduro that has paralyzed the oil giant. U.S. sanctions have scared off some of the last remaining investors.

“In Venezuela there is no war, nor strike, but what’s left of the oil industry is crumbling on its own,” said Evanán Romero, a former PdVSA director.

Since the country exports little else, Venezuela’s centrally planned economy relies on oil exports for 95% of its hard currency, according to the latest official data. That means the output decline will add more pressure to the government, which has drastically cut back on imports of everything from machinery to food and medicines to make ends meet. The economy has shrunk an estimated 40% in the past four years.

And yet I had been assured just last week that Venezuela’s oil production was in full recovery, and as recently as yesterday that Venezuela was suffering a mere recession due entirely to low oil prices.

Excerpt from WSJ, requires subscription to read full article.
Dagny, this is not a battle over material goods. It's a moral crisis, the greatest the world has ever faced and the last. Our age is the climax of centuries of evil. We must put an end to it, once and for all, or perish - we, the men of the mind. It was our own guilt. We produced the wealth of the world - but we let our enemies write its moral code.

Offline tomahawk6

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Trump vs Venezuela
« Reply #284 on: July 04, 2018, 09:37:56 »
If the story is true the President may have considered an invasion of Venezuela.No queation that it would be doable but at what cost ?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/trump-pressed-aides-on-venezuela-invasion-us-official-says/ar-AAzylz6?ocid=spartandhp

Offline Colin P

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Re: Venezuela Superthread- Merged
« Reply #285 on: July 04, 2018, 10:38:47 »
I think it's fair for Trump to ask his advisors if it is a good idea and clearly they said no, he also asked the other South American leaders as well who supported the no side. The "official" leaking this gained himself brownie points with the press, while at the same time doing the same damage he said Trump did. The whole anti-US thing will only be swallowed by a shrinking minority of regime supporters.

Offline Thucydides

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Re: Venezuela Superthread- Merged
« Reply #286 on: July 06, 2018, 10:49:18 »
China moving in to pick up some pieces. The collapse of the oil industry and re imposition of sanctions on Iran might spike the price of oil in the short run, but increasing China and Russia's influence in the region is clearly not a good thing. Certainly the President was considering options when thinking about the ability for America to secure Venezuela, but other options might work as well. The idea the Chinese and Russians might invest billions of dollars into a Venezuelan "sinkhole", never to be recovered, might actually work in "our" favour in the longer run. (As an aside, Canada's east coast imports Venezuelan oil as well. Not having access to Alberta oil might come back to haunt them).

https://www.yahoo.com/news/china-save-venezuela-collapsing-oil-210000270.html

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https://milnet.ca/forums/index.php/topic,128379.0.html
« Last Edit: July 06, 2018, 12:25:45 by mariomike »
Dagny, this is not a battle over material goods. It's a moral crisis, the greatest the world has ever faced and the last. Our age is the climax of centuries of evil. We must put an end to it, once and for all, or perish - we, the men of the mind. It was our own guilt. We produced the wealth of the world - but we let our enemies write its moral code.

Offline Colin P

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Re: Venezuela Superthread- Merged
« Reply #287 on: July 06, 2018, 12:13:16 »
In 1994, my brother and i visited the rusting remains of a Russian mining camp near Km 88 (small town). The Russians tried to operate there, but the whole country even back them was strangled by corruption. Any agreement the Chinese get with the current government might not be worth much. Now if they set up a port enclave, pay locals in hard currency and maintain their security force (both Chinese and local Mercs) then they will have influence. But is it worth it for what is not the best oil a long way from home? The geopolitical value might outweigh the pure economic value of the enclave. How long is that worth maintaining would be a good question. Not to mention the oil industry there is going to require expensive investment at every point along the way from extraction to shiploading. Plus you then have to protect that investment. A black money hole for now.

Offline Remius

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Re: Venezuela Superthread- Merged
« Reply #288 on: July 06, 2018, 13:41:56 »
In 1994, my brother and i visited the rusting remains of a Russian mining camp near Km 88 (small town). The Russians tried to operate there, but the whole country even back them was strangled by corruption. Any agreement the Chinese get with the current government might not be worth much. Now if they set up a port enclave, pay locals in hard currency and maintain their security force (both Chinese and local Mercs) then they will have influence. But is it worth it for what is not the best oil a long way from home? The geopolitical value might outweigh the pure economic value of the enclave. How long is that worth maintaining would be a good question. Not to mention the oil industry there is going to require expensive investment at every point along the way from extraction to shiploading. Plus you then have to protect that investment. A black money hole for now.

Depends on if Trump escalates this trade war to include oil.  The China will go to whatever source it can control.
Optio

Offline Colin P

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Re: Venezuela Superthread- Merged
« Reply #289 on: July 06, 2018, 17:31:16 »
Nigeria is closer, along with Iran. If the PLAN escorted a Chinese flagged tanker into and out of a Iranian oil port, do you think the USN will interfere, yes protests would be made through official channels, but that is about it. Iranian oil is better and closer. Venezuela is about as far from China as you can get.