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The Newsroom => Military Current Affairs & News => Topic started by: gryphonv on January 08, 2020, 00:10:58

Title: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: gryphonv on January 08, 2020, 00:10:58
Ukraine International Flight 752, a Boeing 737, crashed outside Tehran.

Still seems like there is more happening.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/plane-...hran-1.5418562

Also:

 USGS has confirmed a quake southwest of Shiraz.
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: Brihard on January 08, 2020, 06:15:41
Ukraine International Flight 752, a Boeing 737, crashed outside Tehran.

Still seems like there is more happening.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/plane-...hran-1.5418562

Also:

 USGS has confirmed a quake southwest of Shiraz.

63 Canadians dead in the crash per Ukraine. Iran and Ukraine both suspect mechanical. Note that this is NOT the new version of 737 (MAX) that went down twice in the past couple years; this was a 737-800 Next Gen.

May I recommend a thread split for the plane crash?
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: milnews.ca on January 08, 2020, 06:20:05
May I recommend a thread split for the plane crash?
Good call - done.

Milnet.ca Staff
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: milnews.ca on January 08, 2020, 06:28:58
This just out from UKR (https://president.gov.ua/en/news/volodimir-zelenskij-postaviv-zavdannya-vidkriti-kriminalne-p-59161) - highlights mine ...
Quote
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy commissioned to initiate criminal proceedings as regards the crash of a passenger plane of Ukraine International Airlines near Tehran International Airport (Iran). The Head of State also stressed the need to conduct an airworthiness test of the entire civilian fleet.

"Dreadful news from the Middle East. This morning, after taking off from Imam Khomeini International Airport (Tehran), the passenger aircraft of Ukraine International Airlines crashed near the airport. According to preliminary reports, all passengers and crew are dead. My sincere condolences to the families and friends of all passengers and crew members,” the President of Ukraine said.

According to him, the ambassador and consul of Ukraine in Iran are at the scene of the disaster.

“Pursuant to my instruction, the NSDC apparatus has established an operational headquarters. Special aircrafts for conveyance of the bodies have been prepared to depart to Tehran via the line of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Defense. We are waiting for the agreement of the Iranian side for departure,” Volodymyr Zelenskyy said.

The President also tasked the Prosecutor General of Ukraine to initiate criminal proceedings regarding the UIA plane crash in Tehran.

“An investigation commission should be set up of representatives of the security agencies and agencies responsible for civil aviation. We have to check all the possible versions. Regardless of the conclusions on the causes of the Iranian catastrophe, the airworthiness of the entire civilian fleet will be tested,” the Head of State said.

“I keep all measures under personal control. I urge everyone to refrain from speculation and putting forward unverified versions of the disaster before the official announcements,” he added.

According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 11 Ukrainian (2 passengers and 9 crew members), 63 Canadian, 82 Iranian, 3 German, 10 Swedish, 4 Afghan and 3 British citizens were on board. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs is currently updating the information on passengers ...
Also, a reminder attached about breaking news as ther story unfolds.
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: Brihard on January 08, 2020, 06:38:21
There’s video out now purporting to be a cell phone video (from a distance, at night) of the plane on fire before it hits the ground. Looks like it caught fire just after takeoff. The video continues right through to impact- big fireball.

The crash was about 8 hours ago, and took place around 3-4 hours after the missiles were fired. Nothing credible to suggest a link with military/deliberate action at this time.

However this happened it’s goddamned awful and my heart goes out to those affected. Dozens of Canadian families will be waking up in the next few hours to hear of this and fear the worst for their loved ones.

Hopefully, in the larger context of events in the region, this is ‘just’ a civil aviation disaster.
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: Dolphin_Hunter on January 08, 2020, 07:40:08
Nothing credible to suggest a link with military/deliberate action at this time.

No, there isn’t anything credible.  However, it is most likely this aircraft suffered a sudden event which precluded the flight deck from communicating with the ground.

If it was mechanical and it did indeed go down in a ball of flames then there are some issues that need to be addressed ASAP.  Aircraft rarely fall out of the sky in a fireball.

Terrible tragedy.  RIP
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: milnews.ca on January 08, 2020, 09:25:52
UKR's Ministry of Infrastructure has published a list on its Facebook page of the names of the dead w/years of birth included - here's hoping all the NOK have been notified.

Meanwhile, this also from the Ministry (Google Translate - original in Ukrainian (http://mtu.gov.ua/news/31473.html)):
Quote
... According to the decision of the State Aviation Service, flights in the airspace of Iran are forbidden to Ukrainian airlines from 00.00 9.01.2020 - until the causes of the catastrophe are clarified. The State Aviation Service will conduct an unscheduled inspection of the safety of UIA flights. Additional checks on the safety of flights of other airlines will also be carried out, ”said Minister of Infrastructure of Ukraine Vladislav Krykliy.

(...)

The Iranian National Commission for Disaster Investigation has begun its work. The Ukrainian ambassador and the consul are working closely with the Iranian aviation authorities to promptly identify the causes of the crash and the repatriation of the bodies of the dead Ukrainians. A search assistance team and experts will be sent to Iran to investigate the cause of the five-person crash of the National Bureau of Investigation into Civil Aviation and Incidents, two State Aviation Specialists and three UIA officials. The causes of the tragedy will be named only after an official investigation has been carried out, ”the Minister of Infrastructure of Ukraine emphasized.

UIA reports that the Boeing 737-800 NG was new, production 2016 and underwent the last scheduled maintenance on January 6 ...
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: Spencer100 on January 08, 2020, 09:47:25
Iran will not turn over the "black" boxes
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: SeaKingTacco on January 08, 2020, 10:17:12
Iran will not turn over the "black" boxes

Source?
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: Spencer100 on January 08, 2020, 10:28:36
Source?

https://www.jpost.com//Middle-East/Ukranian-plane-crashes-in-Iranian-after-technical-issue-613494


Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: mariomike on January 08, 2020, 10:31:51
Source?

Various,
https://www.google.com/search?q=%22black+box%22+iran&sxsrf=ACYBGNR-0iay7-R1OkwYQQMeAfyasP0CcQ:1578493938977&source=lnt&tbs=qdr:d&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwje5IyUnPTmAhVBKawKHSByCFQQpwV6BAgMEBs&biw=1280&bih=641#spf=1578493950594
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: dapaterson on January 08, 2020, 10:33:42
Source?

It's being reported by the Jerusalem Post: https://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Ukranian-plane-crashes-in-Iranian-after-technical-issue-613494

Iran's civil aviation organization has said that it will not hand over to Boeing the black box of the Ukrainian airlines flight that crashed shortly after taking off from Tehran's Imam Khomeni airport on Wednesday morning.
Both black boxes were found Wednesday, Iranian state television has reported. An Iranian official was quoted as saying both boxes were damaged but that it was believed their data could still be retrieved.
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: SeaKingTacco on January 08, 2020, 11:01:59
https://www.jpost.com//Middle-East/Ukranian-plane-crashes-in-Iranian-after-technical-issue-613494

Thanks!

I do not know what caused this aircraft to crash, but I will note that it is extremely rare for modern commercial airliners to just catch fire and crash all by themselves, giving the crew no time to react or talk to ATC about the problem.

Just sayin...

- slight mod edit to fix quote formatting -
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: Brad Sallows on January 08, 2020, 14:00:11
>Aircraft rarely fall out of the sky in a fireball.

The timing is great, isn't it?
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: milnews.ca on January 08, 2020, 14:41:09
It's being reported by the Jerusalem Post: https://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Ukranian-plane-crashes-in-Iranian-after-technical-issue-613494

Iran's civil aviation organization has said that it will not hand over to Boeing the black box of the Ukrainian airlines flight that crashed shortly after taking off from Tehran's Imam Khomeni airport on Wednesday morning.
Both black boxes were found Wednesday, Iranian state television has reported. An Iranian official was quoted as saying both boxes were damaged but that it was believed their data could still be retrieved.
A bit more (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/08/iran-says-it-will-not-give-black-box-from-crashed-airliner-to-boeing) from The Guardian ...
Quote
... Commenting after the discovery of the black box flight recorders at the crash site, (Iran’s Civil Aviation Organisation head, Ali) Abedzadeh said: “We will not give the black boxes to the manufacturer (Boeing) and the Americans. It’s not yet clear which country the black box will go to for the investigation,” he added.

“This accident will be investigated by Iran’s aviation organisation but the Ukrainians can also be present during the incident’s investigation,” he added ...
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: milnews.ca on January 08, 2020, 14:57:04
Interesting bit on stats:  UKR's President says this ...
Quote
... According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 11 Ukrainian (2 passengers and 9 crew members), 63 Canadian, 82 Iranian, 3 German, 10 Swedish, 4 Afghan and 3 British citizens were on board ...
... while IRN's info-machine (see attached) says this:
Quote
... Iranian emergency service officials said the passengers of the doomed plane included 147 Iranians and 32 foreign nationals.
#EarlyReportCaveats
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: tomahawk6 on January 08, 2020, 14:57:23
Aviation experts on Fox today said that the pilots may have been incapacitated or the plane had suffered electrical failure. Terrorism cannot be discounted maybe that's why the black boxes wont be released. There was speculation that either the NTSB or Canada's version might yet get the black boxes. Condolences to the families of those killed in this crash.

Since the CF personnel in Iraq were moved to Kuwait does their hazardous duty pay stop ?
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: gryphonv on January 08, 2020, 14:59:27
Interesting bit on stats:  UKR's President says this ...... while IRN's info-machine (see attached) says this:#EarlyReportCaveats

Maybe both are right, on the Iranian side dual citizens are only Iranian. I imagine a lot of the Canadians who sadly lost their lives were dual citizens.
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: CloudCover on January 08, 2020, 15:41:01
I know we do like to focus on the tactical, strategic and political aspects here, but the CBC has already produced an article detailing the very real human tragedy of this. With a reminder that the victims could have been any of our neighbours, co-workers, peers, even your bank teller, teacher of your children, or local business owner who you have traded a few laughs with.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/ukrainian-plane-crash-iran-winnipeggers-1.5418879
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: milnews.ca on January 08, 2020, 17:26:30
Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaand let the seeds of conspiracy theories start to be sown (sources:  here (https://twitter.com/AlHadath/status/1214758196511985664) & here (https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1214910920276762624)) ....
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: milnews.ca on January 08, 2020, 17:49:01
For the record, CAN PM's statement  (https://pm.gc.ca/en/news/statements/2020/01/08/statement-prime-minister-fatal-plane-crash-iran)...
Quote
“This morning, I join Canadians across the country who are shocked and saddened to see reports that a plane crash outside of Tehran, Iran, has claimed the lives of 176 people, including 63 Canadians.

“On behalf of the Government of Canada, Sophie and I offer our deepest condolences to those who have lost family, friends, and loved ones in this tragedy. Our government will continue to work closely with its international partners to ensure that this crash is thoroughly investigated, and that Canadians’ questions are answered. Today, I assure all Canadians that their safety and security is our top priority. We also join with the other countries who are mourning the loss of citizens.

“Minister Champagne has been in touch with the government of Ukraine, and is speaking to relevant authorities and to international partners. Minister Garneau is also working with officials from Transport Canada, and is reaching out to his international counterparts ...
... and CAN foreign affairs minister's statement (https://www.canada.ca/en/global-affairs/news/2020/01/statement-by-foreign-affairs-minister-on-ukraine-international-airlines-flight-ps752.html):
Quote
“I was deeply shocked and saddened to learn that, according to preliminary reports, at least 63 Canadians were among the 176 people who were killed when Ukraine International Airlines Flight PS752 crashed after takeoff yesterday near Tehran, Iran. As more information becomes available, including regarding dual citizens, this number could change. I would like to extend my deepest condolences to those who lost loved ones in this tragic event, including citizens of a number of other countries.

“The situation remains extremely fluid. I have been in touch with my Ukrainian counterpart, and will continue to speak to all relevant authorities. The Government of Canada is committed to working closely with international partners regarding any possible investigation.

“We will continue to keep Canadians informed as the situation evolves ...
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: milnews.ca on January 08, 2020, 21:24:01
Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaand let the seeds of conspiracy theories start to be sown (sources:  here (https://twitter.com/AlHadath/status/1214758196511985664) & here (https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1214910920276762624)) ....
MOAR conspiracy fuel (https://web.archive.org/web/20200109010440/https://blazingpress.com/breaking-this-image-which-is-now-being-circulated-in-iranian-social-media-is-claimed-to-be-showing-seeker-of-a-9m331-missiles-launched-by-an-irgcasfs-to-m1-sam-system-at-flight-ps752-of-ukrai/) ...
Quote
#BREAKING: This image which is now being circulated in #Iranian social media is claimed to be showing seeker of a 9M331 missiles launched by an #IRGC|ASF’s To-M1 SAM system at Flight #PS752 of #Ukraine Intl Airlines resulting explosion of Boeing 737-8KV (UR-PSR) today in #Iran ...
Photo's makin' the rounds of Twitter like crazy (https://twitter.com/search?q=9M331&src=typed_query&f=live) ...

Meanwhile, a quick two-liner from the Canadian correspondent for an int'l  wire service (https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSL1N29D1DU) ...
Quote
The initial assessment of Western intelligence agencies is that a Ukrainian airliner which crashed in Iran on Wednesday was not brought down by a missile, said a Canadian security source.  The source, who declined to be identified, said the agencies believed the Boeing 737 plane had suffered a technical malfunction. The Ukraine International Airline jet crashed shortly after takeoff from Tehran, killing all 176 people on board. (Reporting by David Ljunggren; Editing by Amran Abocar and Chizu Nomiyama)
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: PPCLI Guy on January 08, 2020, 21:41:26
Quote
Meanwhile, a quick two-liner from the Canadian correspondent for an int'l  wire service ...
Quote
The initial assessment of Western intelligence agencies is that a Ukrainian airliner which crashed in Iran on Wednesday was not brought down by a missile, said a Canadian security source.  The source, who declined to be identified, said the agencies believed the Boeing 737 plane had suffered a technical malfunction. The Ukraine International Airline jet crashed shortly after takeoff from Tehran, killing all 176 people on board. (Reporting by David Ljunggren; Editing by Amran Abocar and Chizu Nomiyama)

Sounds about right
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: milnews.ca on January 08, 2020, 21:42:51
Any folks in the aviation field know who this group (https://ops.group/blog/) is?  They seem to publish articles/blog posts & share information about aviation, airports, ATC and other related issues among a membership alleging to be ~5K.  The URL is registered via GoDaddy to a "Flight Service Bureau" with zero contact details (http://whois.domaintools.com/ops.group).  The FB page (https://www.facebook.com/pg/weareopsgroup/about/) says they're "a group of 5000 pilots, dispatchers, controllers, and ops people working together to share information."  The only "team member" listed on the FB profile is a guy who appears to be a musician in the UK who's posted ZERO posts or pix related to aviation (https://www.facebook.com/david.mumford.5)???

They're posting this (https://ops.group/blog/risk-assessing-iran-ops-the-uia-737-may-have-been-shot-down/):
Quote
The cause of the crash of Ukraine International Airlines (UIA) AUI/PS752 on departure from Tehran is not yet determined, and given political circumstances, may not be clarified beyond reasonable doubt anytime soon.

Purely from the perspective of making a risk assessment for operations to Tehran, and Iran in general, however, we would recommend the starting assumption to be that this was a shootdown event, similar to MH17 – until there is clear evidence to the contrary.

Images seen by OPSGROUP, shown below, show obvious projectile holes in the fuselage and a wing section. Whether that projectile was an engine part, or a missile fragment is still conjecture, but in making a decision as to whether to operate to Iran, erring on the side of caution would dictate that you do not, until there is clear information as to the cause.

Obviously, there is also the wider regional risk as indicated through the US FAA Notams issued late Tuesday night. US operators are covered by these clear and specific Notams – do not operate to Iran, or Iraq, or operate in the Persian/Oman Gulf area.

Other operators are free to make their own judgement, but should note that a majority of non-US international carriers have elected to avoid both countries for the time being.
Here's a link to the archived version of this piece (https://web.archive.org/web/20200109012901/https://ops.group/blog/risk-assessing-iran-ops-the-uia-737-may-have-been-shot-down/) in case it disappears.

I'm not certified in the physics of explosions, but I'm going to guess that a plane blowing up just after takeoff full of fuel will be quite likely to generate all kinds of flying metal that'll fly into other bigger pieces of metal before all the big & small pieces settle to the ground.
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: Hamish Seggie on January 08, 2020, 21:45:40
I can hardly wait for the tin foil hat crowd to weigh in.  :facepalm:
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: Colin P on January 08, 2020, 21:57:14
Friends of ours in the Persian community have friends that lost people, small world effect. I hope that a team of investigators from countries not implicated in any of the current politics get full access to the site and the information, that's the only way to clear the air of speculation. Hopefully the Iranian Regime is not blind to that.
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: Baden Guy on January 08, 2020, 22:59:23
Thanks!

I do not know what caused this aircraft to crash, but I will note that it is extremely rare for modern commercial airliners to just catch fire and crash all by themselves, giving the crew no time to react or talk to ATC about the problem.

Just sayin...

- slight mod edit to fix quote formatting -

I agree and apparently so does an ex FAA investigator:

"A veteran aviation accident investigator said the flight-tracking data and amateur video were unlike a typical engine failure or fire scenario. While the evidence is still sparse, it’s far more suggestive of a bomb or missile, said Jeffrey Guzzetti, former chief of the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration’s accident investigation division.

“Airplanes don’t just catch fire and have that fire spread like that in such a short period of time, unless there was an intentional act causing that fire and explosion,” Guzzetti said in an interview.

https://business.financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/iran-jet-crash-leaves-mystery-with-probe-curbed-by-tensions


Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: Brad Sallows on January 09, 2020, 00:10:32
Probability of a "technical malfunction" leading to a catastrophic fire event: a number close to zero.

Probability of the above at the same time Iran is engaged in active hostilities: a heckuva lot lower.

Maybe it will turn out to be true.  Meanwhile, the likely way to bet is otherwise, unless you're deeply invested in hoping for a particular outcome.

Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: tomahawk6 on January 09, 2020, 00:54:06
Newliweds and wedding party onboard the doomed plane.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/pictured-two-newlywed-couples-are-identified-among-the-63-canadian-victims-killed-when-their-ukrainian-airlines-jet-crashed-in-iran/ar-BBYLkI4?ocid=spartanntp
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: milnews.ca on January 09, 2020, 08:01:34
I agree and apparently so does an ex FAA investigator:

"A veteran aviation accident investigator said the flight-tracking data and amateur video were unlike a typical engine failure or fire scenario. While the evidence is still sparse, it’s far more suggestive of a bomb or missile, said Jeffrey Guzzetti, former chief of the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration’s accident investigation division.

“Airplanes don’t just catch fire and have that fire spread like that in such a short period of time, unless there was an intentional act causing that fire and explosion,” Guzzetti said in an interview.

https://business.financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/iran-jet-crash-leaves-mystery-with-probe-curbed-by-tensions
Thanks to you & the others for sharing info from less-than-fully-crackpot sources on this - appreciated.

Meanwhile, UKR President's latest (https://president.gov.ua/en/news/zvernennya-prezidenta-ukrayini-volodimira-zelenskogo-u-zvyaz-59185) - highlights mine ....
Quote
Address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy due to the crash of a Ukrainian airline passenger plane in Iran on January 8
9 January 2020 - 06:23

Fellow Ukrainians!

The morning of January 8, 2020 became a dark page in the history of both Ukraine and the world. My sincere condolences to the relatives and friends of eleven dead citizens of Ukraine: Volodymyr Haponenko, Oleksiy Naumkin, Serhiy Khomenko, Kateryna Statnik, Ihor Matkov, Mariya Mykytiuk, Denys Lykhno, Valeriya Ovcharuk, Yuliya Solohub, Olena Malakhova and Olha Kobiuk.

The state will provide their families with all the assistance they need.

January 9 is declared the day of national mourning.

I also extend my condolences to the families of the other victims. It is known that these are citizens of Iran, Canada, Sweden, Afghanistan and the United Kingdom.

Undoubtedly, the priority for Ukraine is to identify the causes of the plane crash. We will surely find out the truth. For this purpose, a thorough and independent investigation will be conducted in accordance with international law.

The commission created by the Civil Aviation Organization of Islamic Republic of Iran will investigate the crash.

At 3:30 am, 45 our specialists arrived in Iran as part of the search and rescue team, including officials of the State Aviation Service, the National Bureau of Air Accidents Investigation of Ukraine, and UIA representatives. In 2 hours, they will depart to the crash site.

We expect that they will all be involved in the work of the commission, including the decoding of the black box records.

If necessary, other experts who have also arrived in Tehran may be included in the commission. These are representatives of the NSDC, the Security Service of Ukraine, the State Emergency Service, the Ministry of Defense, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of the Interior, and other state institutions. These are the best specialists in our country with extensive expertise. They will also identify and repatriate the dead Ukrainians.

Today, I will hold a phone conversation with the President of Iran to step up cooperation with the Ukrainian side to establish the truth. I also call on the international community, in particular Canada, to join the investigation into the circumstances of the Ukrainian Boeing-737 crash.

Also, unscheduled and comprehensive safety inspections of UIA flights and other national airlines will be conducted in Ukraine.

Ukrainian citizens are advised to refrain from visiting this region. Ukrainian airlines are banned from flying in the airspace of Iran and Iraq until the causes of the crash are clarified.

Separately, I would like to emphasize that both before and after the departure of the Ukrainian aircraft, planes of international, including European airlines, landed and took off at the Tehran International Airport. Flights were suspended only by the United States of America.

No other country has banned its airlines from flying over Iran and canceled flights before the morning plane crash.

And finally. Our information space is currently filled with numerous theories and speculations about the tragedy. It is clear that we all want to know the truth as soon as possible. But in such cases, speed can interfere with the truth. We need to wait for at least the preliminary report of the investigation commission.

And I ask everyone - especially when Ukraine is in conditions of information warfare - to refrain from manipulation, speculation, conspiracy theories, hasty categorical evaluations and unverified versions.

This is not a topic for hype, likes on social networks, sensations and conspiracy theories. We need patience, endurance and wisdom.

And this dreadful story should teach all of us - every citizen of Ukraine and every world leader - to appreciate human lives.

And to do so before they end so quickly and painfully.
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: Ping Monkey on January 09, 2020, 10:14:09

I'm not certain I fully trust this news source, so take it worth a grain of salt...

Ukrainian passenger jet crashed after being hit by Iranian Tor-M1 missile


https://defence-blog.com/news/ukrainian-passenger-jet-crashed-after-being-hit-by-iranian-tor-m1-missile.html (https://defence-blog.com/news/ukrainian-passenger-jet-crashed-after-being-hit-by-iranian-tor-m1-missile.html)


Quote
Ukrainian passenger jet probably crashed after being hit by a Russian-made Tor-M1 missile over Parand and crashed in the town of Khalaj Abad.


Ukrainian International Airlines flight PS752, en route from Tehran to Kyiv, with 176 people on board has crashed in Iran just minutes after take-off from Imam Khomeini International Airport, and officials say there is no chance of finding survivors.


A Ukrainian Boeing 737-800 went down just minutes after taking off from Tehran’s airport at 06:12 local time (02:42 GMT). Three Britons and 63 Canadians were among the 168 passengers and nine crew on board the Ukrainian International Airlines flight to Kyiv.


The OSINT experts cataloged and mapped some of the debris of the Ukrainian passenger jet and claim that some debris from Boeing 737-800 shows signs of a missile strike.


Also, Iranian social media released footage of suspicious wreckage that was founded nearly of passenger jet crash place. Suspicious wreckage found at Ukraine plane crash impact site appears to be the nose cone section and control fins of 9M331 surface-to-air missile. It is employed by the Russian-made Tor-M1 mobile air defense system and features a semi-automatic command to line of sight (SACLOS) guidance system. This system currently in service of the Iranian military deployed at a military base near the crash site.


In addition, numerous amateur video appeared to capture the final moments of a Ukrainian passenger jet also testify in favor of the version of the missile attack. An amateur video, run by Iranian news agencies and purportedly of the crashing plane, showed a descending flash in a dark sky. It was accompanied by comments that the aircraft was “on fire” and then a brighter flash as it appears to hit the ground.

Iranian media blamed technical problems and quoted an aviation official who said no emergency had been declared.



In a sign of the potential difficulties facing crash investigators, the head of Iran’s civil aviation organisation was quoted as saying the Ukrainian plane’s “black boxes” – the cockpit voice recorder and the flight data recorder.


Iran’s aviation authority has said it will not hand over flight recorders from the Ukraine International Airlines Boeing 737-800, either to the aircraft’s manufacturer or U.S. aviation authorities.


The statement was issued on Wednesday as the leaders of Ukraine and Canada, from which dozens of citizens died, vowed to identify the cause of the crash amid contradictory statements and swirling speculation.


The Canadian prime minister, Justin Trudeau, said: “Our government will continue to work closely with its international partners to ensure that … [the crash] is thoroughly investigated, and that Canadians’ questions are answered.”
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: milnews.ca on January 09, 2020, 11:27:27
I'm not certain I fully trust this news source, so take it worth a grain of salt...

Ukrainian passenger jet crashed after being hit by Iranian Tor-M1 missile


https://defence-blog.com/news/ukrainian-passenger-jet-crashed-after-being-hit-by-iranian-tor-m1-missile.html (https://defence-blog.com/news/ukrainian-passenger-jet-crashed-after-being-hit-by-iranian-tor-m1-missile.html)
Normally, Defence Blog is reasonably good, but I notice the first Tweet referenced is no longer online (although if you follow the thread, you find a Twitter account linked to an official UKR military news portal asking where the now-missing photo came from).

This guy (https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1215227238595121152) (latest attached) I know works hard to verify stuff, and even though more such photos seem to be cropping up, they're cropped to tightly to geo-locate, so it's still fuzzy for the moment.

Another guy who's reasonably solid (https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1214911013184770049) shows more about the plane trying to turn back before hitting the ground (second attachment), possibly adding to the "hit by a missile" theory.
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: milnews.ca on January 09, 2020, 12:07:36
More of the latest from all angles (with thanks to everyone sharing stuff with me) ...

Edited to add the latest from a chat between UKR's and IRN's leadership (https://president.gov.ua/en/news/prezident-ukrayini-obgovoriv-z-prezidentom-iranu-rozsliduvan-59201) (via UKR President's info-machine):
Quote
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy had a phone conversation with President of the Islamic Republic of Iran Hassan Rouhani.

The Head of State expressed his condolences over the loss of Iranian citizens as a result of the crash of a Ukraine International Airlines plane in Tehran.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy noted that the Ukrainian side had already started its work joining the investigation into the causes of the catastrophe.

"I am hopeful for your assistance in conducting a transparent, comprehensive and objective investigation to clarify the circumstances of this tragic event as soon as possible," he said.

The Iranian party assured of full cooperation with a view to holding an objective investigation and finding out the causes of the tragedy. Hassan Rouhani stressed that Iran would provide the Ukrainian expert group with prompt access to all the necessary data.
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: milnews.ca on January 09, 2020, 13:40:38
Latest mix of opinion via Newsweek (https://www.newsweek.com/iranians-shot-down-ukraine-flight-mistake-sources-1481313) ...
Quote
The Ukrainian flight that crashed just outside the Iranian capital of Tehran was struck by an anti-aircraft missile system, a Pentagon official, a senior U.S. intelligence official and an Iraqi intelligence official told Newsweek.

Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752, a Boeing 737–800 en route from Tehran Imam Khomeini International Airpo(r)t to Kyiv's Boryspil International Airport, stopped transmitting data Tuesday just minutes after takeoff and not long after Iran launched missiles at military bases housing U.S. and allied forces in neighboring Iraq. The aircraft is believed to have been struck by a Russia-built Tor-M1 surface-to-air missile system, known to NATO as Gauntlet, the three officials, who were not authorized to speak publicly on the matter, told Newsweek.

One Pentagon and one U.S. senior intelligence official told Newsweek that the Pentagon's assessment is that the incident was accidental. Iran's anti-aircraft were likely active following the country's missile attack, which came in response to the U.S. killing last week of Revolutionary Guard Quds Force commander Major General Qassem Soleimani, sources said.

U.S. Central Command declined to comment on the matter when contacted by Newsweek. No reply was returned from the National Security Council or State Department ...
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: Brihard on January 09, 2020, 13:45:58
Tor-M1 is a Radar based system... I’m speculating, but I would guess that guidance radar and/or missile command signals would be pretty easily detectable by various airborne and satellite ELINT assets. I.e., if a missile were launched, American assets would be able to detect the resulting signals from the launcher’s radar, and the commands sent to guide the missiles to target. This would be of considerable evidentiary value.
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: PuckChaser on January 09, 2020, 13:59:22
Either it was a deliberate shoot down, or the Iranian Air Defense systems/operators are complete junk so the US doesn't need to worry about penetrating it whenever it wants to slow Iran's nuclear weapon ambition. Thought it was a little fishy that the Iranians immediately stated they wouldn't turn over the black boxes.
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: milnews.ca on January 09, 2020, 14:22:10
... Thought it was a little fishy that the Iranians immediately stated they wouldn't turn over the black boxes.
So far (and it may be changing hourly at this point), IRN's said they won't give the black boxes to Boeing or the U.S. government.

Well, if you want the experts on civilian airliners in Iran being shot down in Iranian airspace, you need to bring in the experts: the United States Navy.
<Rodney Dangerfield impression>Tough crowd, tough crowd ...</Rodney Dangerfield impression>

Meanwhile, IRN media say western media are spreading lies * ...
Quote
The Minister of Roads and Urban Development said that the rumors about the crash of the Ukrainian-Ukrainian plane near Imam Khomeini Airport were false, saying that the technical defect of the plane caused the fire and its crash ...
Quote
... Ali Abedzadeh, the head of (IRN's civil aviation authority), said: "At the same time, there were several domestic and foreign flights flying in Iran at the altitude of 8,000 feet and the subject of the missile attack could not be correct."  He added: "There is complete coordination between all military and civilian sectors in Iran, and at the same time, tens of Iranian and foreign planes were flying over Iran's safe space, and if there were no security, there could be a large number of flights over space." ...
... and UKR's Pres is set to call PMJT (https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/volodimir-zelenskij-zasluhav-zvit-operativnogo-shtabu-z-pita-59205):
Quote
...  the President of Ukraine holds consultations with international partners. On January 9, Volodymyr Zelenskyy had phone conversations with the Prime Ministers of the United Kingdom and Sweden, Presidents of Iran and Afghanistan. A phone conversation is also scheduled with the Prime Minister of Canada and the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. The Head of State emphasizes that Ukraine is interested in a transparent and objective investigation ...
* - links to IRN media sources available via PM request because the system won't let me save the post with the links in question.
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: dapaterson on January 09, 2020, 14:34:20
Well, if you want the experts on civilian airliners in Iran being shot down in Iranian airspace, you need to bring in the experts: the United States Navy.
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: gryphonv on January 09, 2020, 14:37:37
The connection I haven't seen made yet, but wasn't Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 shot down by a very similar system that is being suggested shot down the UKR plane?

Nothing has been confirmed about the plane being shot down, and there probably never will be a unified record of events.

The two incidents seem way too similar for me though.
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: CloudCover on January 09, 2020, 14:41:53
Either it was a deliberate shoot down, or the Iranian Air Defense systems/operators are complete junk so the US doesn't need to worry about penetrating it whenever it wants to slow Iran's nuclear weapon ambition. Thought it was a little fishy that the Iranians immediately stated they wouldn't turn over the black boxes.

They do have some good equipment by our own assessment: http://natoassociation.ca/irans-developing-military-capabilities-part-iv-air-defences-section-ii/

Although not addressed in the article, and one could get wrapped up in the command and control signalling data which uses strong encryption, that particular missile can also be optically guided at close range (within 23,000 VLOS metres in clear conditions). This is useful under thick ECM situations.  Greece is a user of this system and so we do have good information on its capabilities.

Also, the Dog Ear is the process of being updated in cooperation with Russia.
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: milnews.ca on January 09, 2020, 14:46:31
Helpful (https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1215335543464235008) ....
Quote
More and more reports from people with access to the crash site that the wreckage has been bulldozed into a pile, making a truly forensic investigation next to impossible. #PS752
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: Retired AF Guy on January 09, 2020, 14:48:15
Just listened to CBC Radio (1300 hrs) and according to them the Pentagon is saying the Iranians are responsible and that satellites detected two missiles being launched. CBC also said that the Canadian government has been provided with the intelligence.

More  here (https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-missile-iran-1.5420736)

Note that launching two missiles per target is in line with Russian doctrine and I imagine that's what the Iranians are also following.
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: Retired AF Guy on January 09, 2020, 14:55:38
Trudeau to address reports Iranian missile likely brought down Ukrainian flight, killing 63 Canadians at 1400 Eastern Time.
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: milnews.ca on January 09, 2020, 15:00:03
Trudeau to address reports Iranian missile likely brought down Ukrainian flight, killing 63 Canadians at 1400 Eastern Time.
And if you want to watch online ...
https://www.cpac.ca/en/direct/cpac2/384109/pm-trudeau-provides-update-on-iran-plane-crash/
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: Good2Golf on January 09, 2020, 15:12:51
The connection I haven't seen made yet, but wasn't Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 shot down by a very similar system that is being suggested shot down the UKR plane?

No, 9M37/38M1 ‘Buk’.  9N314M Warhead.

Regards
G2G
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: milnews.ca on January 09, 2020, 15:18:37
... The two incidents seem way too similar for me though.
Especially the multiple narrative tracks developing simultaneously.
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: Navy_Pete on January 09, 2020, 15:44:37
Normally, Defence Blog is reasonably good, but I notice the first Tweet referenced is no longer online (although if you follow the thread, you find a Twitter account linked to an official UKR military news portal asking where the now-missing photo came from).

This guy (https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1215227238595121152) (latest attached) I know works hard to verify stuff, and even though more such photos seem to be cropping up, they're cropped to tightly to geo-locate, so it's still fuzzy for the moment.

Another guy who's reasonably solid (https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1214911013184770049) shows more about the plane trying to turn back before hitting the ground (second attachment), possibly adding to the "hit by a missile" theory.

Kind of an aside, but if the seeker head is intact, do the explosives go outward  in a circle behind it?  Always kind of assumed the tip actually had the explosives and blew out in a cone, but I guess when it's going that fast if the charge blows out perpendicular to the missile it will still form a cone shaped cloud of shrapnel to ruin any plane's day.
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: milnews.ca on January 09, 2020, 15:59:45
So far, PMJT sticking on message:  need credible, complete, in-depth investigation, and those discussions are ongoing.  No, we won't tell you more details about the int we have.  No, I'm not going to talk about potential consequences if a probe shows the plane was shot down.  We continue to talk with IRN about getting more access and being involved in the probe.

New tidbit:  Canada's been talking to the Netherlands about their experience in investigating the MH17 shoot-down in Ukraine (https://www.government.nl/topics/mh17-incident/achieving-justice/the-criminal-investigation).

FWIW, IRN media (https://en.mehrnews.com/news/154380/Iran-Ukraine-joint-meeting-held-to-investigate-clues-for-plane) say Canadians have been invited to join the probe ...
Quote
Canadian and Swedish authorities have been invited to cooperate in the investigation into Wednesday's crash, the Iranian Civil Aviation Organization said in a statement.

The first joint meeting between Iranian and Ukrainian experts, sent to Tehran to investigate the incident, has already taken place, according to the organization ...
What the bit in yellow means, exactly, isn't clear.  PMJT doesn't say in his statement so far that we've received any such invite.
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: gryphonv on January 09, 2020, 16:23:38
I am far from a fan of Trudeau, but I feel he is handling this as good as anyone should expect.

Some of the questions posed to him are moronic and definitely didn't pass any sort of QC checks, about 90% of them anyone with half a brain would know he couldn't answer.

And most of them seem only to trap him in an awkard response.

I got so angry with the guy who asked if Trump shared some of the blame, how about concentrate on the fact we have 63 Canadians dead and many families/friends suffering right now.

Blame can come after, the grieving should be now.
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: SeaKingTacco on January 09, 2020, 16:36:32
I am far from a fan of Trudeau, but I feel he is handling this as good as anyone should expect.

Some of the questions posed to him are moronic and definitely didn't pass any sort of QC checks, about 90% of them anyone with half a brain would know he couldn't answer.

And most of them seem only to trap him in an awkard response.

I got so angry with the guy who asked if Trump shared some of the blame, how about concentrate on the fact we have 63 Canadians dead and many families/friends suffering right now.

Blame can come after, the grieving should be now.

Every sovereign nation is entirely, 100%, responsible for the conduct of their own Armed Forces.

You don't get to blame misplaced rounds on the other guy in the fight. If your ordnance goes astray- own it.
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: gryphonv on January 09, 2020, 16:39:14
You don't get to blame misplaced rounds on the other guy in the fight. If your ordnance goes astray- own it.

That works in an open society where the news will probably leak sooner than later. Doesn't work so well in a dictator state that want's to maintain the image of being infallible. Works even less when that nation is already suffering with uprisings at home.
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: gryphonv on January 09, 2020, 16:45:55
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/09/video/iran-plane-missile.html

Video Shows Ukrainian Plane Being Hit Over Iran
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: milnews.ca on January 09, 2020, 16:55:16
Like this guy says (https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1215369286673485825), if there’s one outlet you can trust about a story involving Ukraine and a passenger jet shot down accidentally, it’s Russia Today  ;D
" ‘Illogical rumors’: Iran responds to US media reports that Ukrainian Boeing was hit by missile over Tehran" (https://www.rt.com/news/477857-iran-responds-missile-ukraine-boeing/)
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: SeaKingTacco on January 09, 2020, 16:56:15
That works in an open society where the news will probably leak sooner than later. Doesn't work so well in a dictator state that want's to maintain the image of being infallible. Works even less when that nation is already suffering with uprisings at home.

This is exactly my point. During the news conference, much of the media was attempting to get the PM to blame the Americans. This smacks of an all too Canadian tendancy to define ourselves by anti-Americanism and moral relativism.

What ever you think of Trump personally, this event should leave no Canadian under the misapprehension that the US and Iran are moral equivalents. They are not. And now more that 60 of our citizens are dead, as a result of Iranian actions.

Do I "think" that the Iranian regime did this purposefully? I would say no. But what they do next will either mark them as a two-bit, morally bankrupt dictatorship, fit only for our contempt. Or they can admit an error, cooperate with an open investigation, apologize and make restitution. Their choice.
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: CloudCover on January 09, 2020, 16:57:13
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/09/video/iran-plane-missile.html

Video Shows Ukrainian Plane Being Hit Over Iran

https://twitter.com/bellingcat/status/1215352457972404226?s=20
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: gryphonv on January 09, 2020, 17:00:49
Do I "think" that the Iranian regime did this purposefully? I would say no. But what they do next will either mark them as a two-bit, morally bankrupt dictatorship, fit only for our contempt. Or they can admit an error, cooperate with an open investigation, apologize and make restitution. Their choice.

I hope for the sake of all nations involved, Iran included, that this wasn't intentional.

One thing that makes me wonder though, is why the Iranians didn't close their air space and stopped allowing civilian flights to operate, when they were obviously in a defensive posture.
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: milnews.ca on January 09, 2020, 17:11:30
... During the news conference, much of the media was attempting to get the PM to blame the Americans ...
When I watched, I heard one question to that effect, although I was called away a couple of times - how many other questions were there about #POTUS45?  And agreed -- dumb and short-sighted.
... what they do next will either mark them as a two-bit, morally bankrupt dictatorship, fit only for our contempt. Or they can admit an error, cooperate with an open investigation, apologize and make restitution. Their choice.
:nod:

The various takes from the news conference ...
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: gryphonv on January 09, 2020, 17:22:47
When I watched, I heard one question to that effect, although I was called away a couple of times - how many other questions were there about #POTUS45?  And agreed -- dumb and short-sighted. :nod:

Maybe I over blown it by saying 'Many' I seem to recall only the one now, and it irked me so I was seeing red after that, overall I was disappointed by the questions thrown at the PM, it was like they were having a contest in seeing how many ways they could ask the same question phrased differently, or they were truly unprepared and didn't have back up questions.

Over all I think the PM did a great job handling it. Keeping a cool head, no mater how many times he had to repeat the same answer over and over.
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: FJAG on January 09, 2020, 17:57:54
Every sovereign nation is entirely, 100%, responsible for the conduct of their own Armed Forces.

You don't get to blame misplaced rounds on the other guy in the fight. If your ordnance goes astray- own it.

I listen to that as well and like others here, while not a fan of JT, I think he handled himself well in light of some of the moronic questions.

I'm quite encouraged by the fact that the evidence was from multiple sources, including our own. The CBC question (actually someone else asked it earlier too) about how much blame is on the US/Trump shows how little knowledge these people have about the military in general and air defence weapon control systems in particular. You might as well ask what blame the three hundred Spartans at Thermopylae had in causing some local Persian AD site commander to pull the trigger on an airliner. I don't often give Trump any slack, but (unless someone can prove that there were some US stealth aircraft around the airport spoofing the radars) I think the answer is the US bears no blame at all.

 :cheers:
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: tomahawk6 on January 09, 2020, 17:59:08
The Iranians have the black boxes but they wont release them because it might show the aircraft was hit by a missile.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/iran-downed-ukrainian-jetliner-us-canadian-officials-say/ar-BBYLJo2?ocid=spartanntp
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: Baz on January 09, 2020, 18:00:29
Just listened to CBC Radio (1300 hrs) and according to them the Pentagon is saying the Iranians are responsible and that satellites detected two missiles being launched. CBC also said that the Canadian government has been provided with the intelligence.

If it was detected by Sateillite it would have been provided to the NORAD missile warning system, and Canada automatically would get access.

As it looks like it was in the middle of a missile event nearby, it would have taken some time to analyze exactly what was seen.

For context, I was in NORAD CMOC (Cheyenne Nountain Operations Center) Missile Warning from 2002 to 2004.
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: Hamish Seggie on January 09, 2020, 18:00:59
This is exactly my point. During the news conference, much of the media was attempting to get the PM to blame the Americans. This smacks of an all too Canadian tendancy to define ourselves by anti-Americanism and moral relativism.

What ever you think of Trump personally, this event should leave no Canadian under the misapprehension that the US and Iran are moral equivalents. They are not. And now more that 60 of our citizens are dead, as a result of Iranian actions.

Do I "think" that the Iranian regime did this purposefully? I would say no. But what they do next will either mark them as a two-bit, morally bankrupt dictatorship, fit only for our contempt. Or they can admit an error, cooperate with an open investigation, apologize and make restitution. Their choice.

Make no mistake. We are not friends with Iran. I believe they still view us as "lesser infidels" with our neighbour being the "Great Satan". Whatever they say or do I would not trust that regime ever.

I don't think it was a deliberate shoot down. More likely some low level AD guy got an itchy trigger finger.

Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: Chris Pook on January 09, 2020, 18:09:51
I don't think it was a deliberate shoot down. More likely some low level AD guy got an itchy trigger finger.

Or somebody called "Weapons Free" and took the man out of the loop?  Russian gizmos?
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: FJAG on January 09, 2020, 18:10:02
The Iranians have the black boxes but they wont release them because it might show the aircraft was hit by a missile.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/iran-downed-ukrainian-jetliner-us-canadian-officials-say/ar-BBYLJo2?ocid=spartanntp

From Trudeau's news conference, the indication is that Iran will allow Ukrainian investigator's access to them They just won't turn them over to Boeing or the US although there have been some very recent reports on CNN and that Iran is asking for assistance from Boeing re the boxes.

I'm just speculating here (like most folks), but I wouldn't be surprised at all if within the next 48 hours Iran admits that there was a missile mistakenly fired and blames it on the increased tensions with the US.

 :cheers:
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: FJAG on January 09, 2020, 18:13:54
Or somebody called "Weapons Free" and took the man out of the loop?  Russian gizmos?

Considering that they gave six hours warning of their missile launch and were expecting immediate US retaliation by aircraft, it is completely logical to assume that their AD resources were on a very heightened alert. Similarly, I do not doubt that they would have had AD resources covering a vital point such as Tehran Airport.

 :cheers:
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: SeaKingTacco on January 09, 2020, 18:30:40
Considering that they gave six hours warning of their missile launch and were expecting immediate US retaliation by aircraft, it is completely logical to assume that their AD resources were on a very heightened alert. Similarly, I do not doubt that they would have had AD resources covering a vital point such as Tehran Airport.

 :cheers:

In instances such as that, morally responsible governments close their airspace to civil aviation, in order to prevent any possibility of a "mistake".

Morally corrupt regimes, such as Iran's, care nothing of human life, so it does not enter their calculus.
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: Remius on January 09, 2020, 19:31:24
In instances such as that, morally responsible governments close their airspace to civil aviation, in order to prevent any possibility of a "mistake".

Morally corrupt regimes, such as Iran's, care nothing of human life, so it does not enter their calculus.

True.

The other fact is that 88 iranian citizens died along with everyone else.  Plus a majority likely had family ties in Iran.  There will be pressure from within to get to the truth. 
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: Hamish Seggie on January 09, 2020, 19:49:56
True.

The other fact is that 88 iranian citizens died along with everyone else.  Plus a majority likely had family ties in Iran.  There will be pressure from within to get to the truth.

If my memory serves me correctly, it is not above dictatorial regimes to sacrifice a few of the innocents to serve a higher purpose.
I recall the Balkans and rumours about one faction offing a few of their own and blame it on the other side.
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: Good2Golf on January 09, 2020, 19:59:53
If my memory serves me correctly, it is not above dictatorial any regimes to sacrifice a few of the innocents to serve a higher purpose.

Indeed.  Iran Air 655?

In the fog of war, sometimes s*** happens...


Regards
G2G
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: SeaKingTacco on January 09, 2020, 20:15:18
Indeed.  Iran Air 655?

In the fog of war, sometimes s*** happens...


Regards
G2G


Not a great anology. That happened in international airspace. If the USN had shot a helo off the deck of a neighbouring warship in a TG= better anology.

The Iranians had all the keys to prevent this. When they did their "kabuki theatre" missile strike into Iraq, they should have closed their airspace to civil aviation for about 24hrs. It is up to the Iranians to effectively use airspace control measures before lobbing around high speed SAMs. That they failed to do so shows either reckless disregard or unbelievable incompetence.
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: milnews.ca on January 09, 2020, 20:26:03
This (https://sputniknews.com/world/202001091077992020-canadian-pm-trudeau-says-has-intelligence-from-multiple-sources-that-iran-shot-down-ukraine-jet/) from Russian state media ...
Quote
... The Transportation Safety Board of Canada (TSB) said in a statement that it was accepting Tehran's invitation and making arrangements to travel to the site of the jet crash in Iran.

    "The TSB has been invited by the Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau of the Islamic Republic of Iran to attend the accident site. We have accepted this invitation and we are making arrangements to travel to the site. The TSB will be working with other groups and organizations already on site", the agency said in a statement on Thursday ...
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: Good2Golf on January 09, 2020, 20:37:13


Not a great anology. That happened in international airspace. If the USN had shot a helo off the deck of a neighbouring warship in a TG= better anology.


Not intended as a direct analogy, but speaking to things going through the air and the fog of war.   AD-accessible/covered airspace being ones own, or an adversary’s, innocents get injured/killed.

Adjust the elements as one may wish,

Victims - select from: innocents/own people/combatants/etc.
Region - select from: adversary, own territory, independent location, etc.
Agent - select from: state actor, non-state actor, other, etc.

The outrage (or lack thereof) is related to the lens one looks through, no?  IA655...oopsies, sorry, our bad.  PS752...meant to hurt Giant Satan indirectly via Little Satan? ???

Just trying to apply some critical thought to potential courses of what happened, and some
Level of incompetence could have been part of it...potentially.

:2c:

Regards
G2G
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: tomahawk6 on January 09, 2020, 23:02:31
Much of the engines and fuselage would show shrapnel damage unless the Iranians have it hidden. Iran would be wise to admit the error and offer a payment to the families. I would expect a number of civil carriers to withdraw flying in and out of Tehran.
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: CBH99 on January 10, 2020, 04:49:53
I agree with every single thing said above from all posters. 

-  Most likely unintentional. 

-  Absolutely irresponsible to not close the airspace to civil aviation, especially considering the Iranians gave the installations a 6 hour notice.

-  Everybody is responsible for their own ordnance. 


They should own it.  Admit it happened, admit the mistake.  Allow investigators in to do their job - it would help their image in the international community big time.




Unfortunately, T6, I think someone in Iran was way ahead of you in regards to keeping the evidence hidden. 

https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-bulldozers-ukrainian-jet-crash-site-complicate-investigation-2020-1


Shame - when they invited Transport Canada investigators to come over and seemed to be seeking help with the black boxes, I had my hopes up and gave them credit.  I was too soon.


**Trying to find photos but there doesn't seem to be many available yet.  If you look at the crash site between yesterday and today, there's basically nothing there.
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: milnews.ca on January 10, 2020, 08:12:07
Kind of an aside, but if the seeker head is intact, do the explosives go outward  in a circle behind it?  Always kind of assumed the tip actually had the explosives and blew out in a cone, but I guess when it's going that fast if the charge blows out perpendicular to the missile it will still form a cone shaped cloud of shrapnel to ruin any plane's day.
According to these guys (https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena/2020/01/09/video-apparently-showing-flight-ps572-missile-strike-geolocated-to-iranian-suburb/) ...
Quote
... The warhead is located midway on the missile, meaning that its nose may not be destroyed in an explosion ...
See attached.

Some of the latest ...
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: Jarnhamar on January 10, 2020, 08:44:29
Quote
Iran is using bulldozers at the Ukrainian plane crash site,

So what are we going to do about it?

Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: Brihard on January 10, 2020, 08:56:21
So what are we going to do about it?

Blow it up and built a FOB on it?
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: NavyShooter on January 10, 2020, 09:40:53
I found this on Facebook this morning.

A rather...detailed look at the situation that seems to make sense.

NS
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: NavyShooter on January 10, 2020, 09:47:14
OK...I have 6 more photos to go with this and the forum won't let me post them for some reason.

Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: mariomike on January 10, 2020, 10:03:02
On the Homefront,

Quote
Global News

Fight breaks out at Toronto vigil for Iran plane crash victims
https://globalnews.ca/news/6391384/iran-plane-crash-vigil-north-york-civic-centre/

Two vigils were occurring at the time of the altercation and it’s estimated hundreds were in attendance at both events.

One was hosted by independent Iranian-Canadian citizens in Mel Lastman Square and the other was hosted by the Iranian Canadian Congress inside the North York Civic Centre.

Warning: Violent content. Discretion advised
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: milnews.ca on January 10, 2020, 11:10:40
I found this on Facebook this morning.

A rather...detailed look at the situation that seems to make sense.

NS
Good share - thanks!

More of the same from elsewhere (https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1215399763602018308) attached.
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: milnews.ca on January 10, 2020, 11:25:11
OK...I have 6 more photos to go with this and the forum won't let me post them for some reason.
PM inbound
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: Jarnhamar on January 10, 2020, 11:28:36
Blow it up and built a FOB on it?

Who gets the contract, SNC or KBR?

 
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: milnews.ca on January 10, 2020, 11:37:09
I found this on Facebook this morning.

A rather...detailed look at the situation that seems to make sense.

NS
And here's the rest of the pix ....
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: Hamish Seggie on January 10, 2020, 11:40:00
 CBC Newsworld - I'm a bit slow this morning - is reporting the Iranian government is in full denial mode. Not really surprising.
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: milnews.ca on January 10, 2020, 11:48:25
CBC Newsworld - I'm a bit slow this morning - is reporting the Iranian government is in full denial mode. Not really surprising.
Yup (https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2020/01/10/615808/Iran-plane-crash-Ukraine-black-box) ...
Quote
Iran’s top aviation official says the results of a probe into the crash of a Ukrainian passenger plane in Tehran will show what has happened, but Iran is certain no missile hit the aircraft.  The remarks were made by Ali Abedzadeh, the head of Iran's Aviation Organization, during a press conference held in Tehran Friday after countries with a stake in crisis-hit Boeing claimed that the airliner had probably been brought down by a missile ....

A few more tidbits ...
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: LittleBlackDevil on January 10, 2020, 12:10:34
I just saw this today:

https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEG4OfnzaNJsS-5tL_ttkanIqFwgEKg8IACoHCAowjuuKAzCWrzwwqIQY?hl=en-CA&gl=CA&ceid=CA%3Aen

Seems pretty compelling. The article does a good job of matching stuff up to connect the dots that this does indeed appear to be a video of the flight in question being shot down.
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: milnews.ca on January 10, 2020, 12:22:07
And, pulling from the "MH17 Shootdown over UKR" playbook, the "show us your int that we know you'll never show, allowing us to ask 'whatcha hiding?' " (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/01/10/iran-denies-downing-plane-097135) play ...
Quote
Iran on Friday denied Western allegations that one of its own missiles downed a Ukrainian jetliner that crashed outside Tehran, and called on the U.S. and Canada to share any information they have on the crash, which killed all 176 people on board.

Western leaders said the plane appeared to have been unintentionally hit by a surface-to-air missile just hours after Iran launched around a dozen ballistic missiles at two U.S. bases in Iraq to avenge the killing of its top general in an American airstrike last week.

“What is obvious for us, and what we can say with certainty, is that no missile hit the plane,” Ali Abedzadeh, head of Iran’s national aviation department, told a press conference.

“If they are really sure, they should come and show their findings to the world” in accordance with international standards, he added ...
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: gryphonv on January 10, 2020, 13:18:31
And, pulling from the "MH17 Shootdown over UKR" playbook, the "show us your int that we know you'll never show, allowing us to ask 'whatcha hiding?' " (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/01/10/iran-denies-downing-plane-097135) play ...

It seems there is no way Iran will ever admit this now. All their actions up to now has been looking like a cover up. Delay and deny.

They dont even have plausible deniability at this point. This actually may be enough to stir enough resentment to the regime within the Iranian people. They are not stupid nor are they isolated from the news around the world.
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: CloudCover on January 10, 2020, 14:08:07
What are the chances that every single person at that SAM site has been summarily dealt with. With this regime would they not liquidate every loose thread they can find?
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: gryphonv on January 10, 2020, 15:00:45
What are the chances that every single person at that SAM site has been summarily dealt with. With this regime would they not liquidate every loose thread they can find?

I was thinking this as well, or at the very least to take the narrative it was some rogue operator and make a very public trial on punishing them.
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: milnews.ca on January 10, 2020, 16:02:38
UKR's Security Service considering two theories (original news release in Ukrainian (https://ssu.gov.ua/ua/news/1/category/21/view/6950#.3ZD6PV6W.dpbs) - translation via Google):
Quote
The SBU is considering two priority versions of the reasons that led to the plane crash of the PS752 flight in Iran: the first - a missile hit, the second - a terrorist attack. This was reported by the Head of the Security Service of Ukraine Ivan Bakanov during a meeting of the SBU special working group, which took place on January 10 under his chairmanship.

“Indeed, the version of the missile hit by the TOR anti-aircraft missile system is attracting the greatest public attention today. However, it is sufficient to open the SAM's instruction manual to raise a number of questions that require additional answers. In particular, we are talking about the range of the rocket, the nuances of managing the complex and more. All issues are being processed now, ”Ivan Bakanov said.

As for the version of the terrorist attack, the SBU also carefully examines and analyzes this information. “The topic is too important to draw any hasty conclusions. I can assure that we will necessarily inform the society of all objective, verified information, ”Ivan Bakanov emphasized.

The Head of Service also thanked the representatives of the Office of the President, the NSDC, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Foreign Intelligence Service, other authorities and international partners who, since the first minutes of the tragedy, have been involved in its investigation. Ivan Bakanov reminded that a separate SBU investigation team was formed, which is now effectively operating in Iran. Representatives of the Service attended meetings and meetings of the President with international partners.

Separately, the SBU Chairman called on citizens to be more cautious about the dissemination of unverified data on the tragedy.

“In today's new reality, when social networks generate new competitive meanings and ideas for all of humanity, they often and densely replace government institutions and law enforcement agencies, it is important not to learn to think and draw conclusions based on facts, not on fakes. We are all related to each other and together we will be responsible for the fake findings. We need to be patient and wait for the results of the investigation by the evidence-based competent authorities, ”Ivan Bakanov added.
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: Hamish Seggie on January 10, 2020, 16:58:18
What are the chances that every single person at that SAM site has been summarily dealt with. With this regime would they not liquidate every loose thread they can find?

Again I would not be surprised.
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: Jarnhamar on January 10, 2020, 17:03:37
I was thinking this as well, or at the very least to take the narrative it was some rogue operator and make a very public trial on punishing them.

About the same chances the black box gets put on the same shelf as the Dave Epstein security camera footage.
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: milnews.ca on January 10, 2020, 17:36:18
Stand by (https://www.dailystar.com.lb//News/Middle-East/2020/Jan-10/498990-iran-will-announce-reason-for-crash-of-ukrainian-airliner-on-saturday-fars-news.ashx) ...
Quote
Iran will announce Saturday the reason for the crash of the Ukrainian airliner that was flying to Kiev from Tehran earlier this week, the semi-official Fars news agency reported Friday, citing an informed source.

The announcement will take place after a meeting of a commission focused on air accidents but the report did not provide any information on what kind of information had been collected.
:pop:
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: Spencer100 on January 10, 2020, 18:45:43
Who gets the contract, SNC or KBR?

A JV for twice the cost! 
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: milnews.ca on January 10, 2020, 21:48:56
An interesting take (https://web.archive.org/web/20200111014515/http://canadianpatriot.org/canadian-pm-steps-into-the-mud-of-slander-blaming-iran-for-boeing-crash/) (archive.org link) shared by a site that self-identifies as "inspired by the philosophy and strategic outlook of Lyndon LaRouche (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Views_of_Lyndon_LaRouche_and_the_LaRouche_movement) and the International Schiller Institute" ...
Quote
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s recent claim that Ukraine’s flight PS752 was shot down by Iranian rockets according to “secret intelligence” has provoked the Iranian government to respond by calling out the bluff which has spread like wildfire in the recent 48 hours.

On Wednesday, Trudeau stated: “We have intelligence from multiple sources, including our allies and our own intelligence. The evidence indicates that the plane was shot down by an Iranian surface-to-air missile. This may well have been unintentional.” Canadians represented 63 of the 176 victims who died in the crash and so the words of the Canadian government obviously carries more emotional weight than other nations in this matter.

Trudeau’s claims, (along with those made minutes earlier by the UK’s Boris Johnson to the same effect) represent the first serious attempt to legitimize the gossip which first originated by anonymous sources within the US State Department hours after the crash occurred. After making these remarks, Trudeau stated that he had shared this secret intelligence with the government of Ukraine as well as the Dutch government that had conducted the investigation into the 2014 Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 which crashed over Eastern Ukraine and which recent information from Ukrainian whistle-blower Lt. Col. Vasily Prozorov proved was actually caused by the Azov-connected Poroshenko government working alongside British Intelligence.

While sufficient evidence has not yet come to light in the current case, the parallels between this week’s tragedy and MH17 cannot be ignored.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Ali Rabiei responded to US, British and Canadian assertions of “secret evidence” by inviting all countries who have lost citizens in the disaster to come to Tehran in order to investigate the black box (which they rightfully refused to hand over to US officials). Rabiei stated on Thursday: “All these reports are a psychological warfare against Iran. All those countries whose citizens were aboard the plane can send representatives and we urge Boeing to send its representative to join the process of investigating the black box.”

Iran stated that all evidence gathered should be “published and publicized to the world.”
Also being shared by pro-Russian, anti-Western fan-boy sites (https://www.fort-russ.com/2020/01/canadian-pm-steps-into-the-mud-of-slander-blaming-iran-for-boeing-crash/).
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: milnews.ca on January 10, 2020, 22:09:04
Compare & contrast leader statements ...

This from PMJT (https://pm.gc.ca/en/news/readouts/2020/01/10/prime-minister-justin-trudeau-speaks-president-ukraine-volodymyr-zelenskyy) ...
Quote
Today (10 Jan 2019), Prime Minister Justin Trudeau spoke with the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, to discuss recent developments on the tragic Ukraine International Airlines plane crash.

The Prime Minister and the President agreed on the need for a full, credible, and complete investigation of the crash and discussed Canada’s continued support for the investigation. Both leaders highlighted the need for cooperation to build a complete picture of the event, so that all those who suffered losses can get the answers they deserve.

The Prime Minister and the President recommitted to working together during these difficult times.
... versus this from Ukraine's President (https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/volodimir-zelenskij-i-dzhastin-tryudo-pogodilisya-shodo-neob-59229) presumably based on the same chat:
Quote
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Prime Minister of Canada Justin Trudeau have discussed the situation on the investigation into the causes of the crash of the Ukrainian plane in Iran for the second time. The parties agreed that there should be a thorough approach to the study of information, as well as close cooperation of the international partners in data exchange.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he was in contact with numerous countries. In particular, he had a conversation with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on January 10 and met with representatives of the US and UK embassies in Ukraine. Ukrainian experts analyze the data received. All versions of the causes of the crash are considered possible.

The President of Ukraine confirmed that the Iranian party facilitated the investigation and provided access to the site of the plane crash, to the aircraft fragments and black boxes.

The parties agreed that speculation on the tragedy should be ceased and that an objective and comprehensive investigation should be facilitated in every possible way.

A further initial update (https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/ukrayina-otrimala-dostup-do-chornih-skrinok-litaka-mau-yakij-59233) on what's happening on the ground, via the UKR President's info-machine ...
Quote
Ukrainian experts who had arrived in Iran to take part in the investigation of the tragedy with the PS752 Ukraine International Airlines flight have been given access to the “black boxes”, plane debris and recordings of airport dispatchers' conversations with Ukrainian pilots, as stated by Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Vadym Prystaiko.

“We have faced full cooperation from the Iranian side. We have got access to both the details of the aircraft and the crash site, the police provide security,” the Foreign Minister said at a briefing at the Office of the President of Ukraine.

He noted that from the outset, local residents had access to the crash site, which hindered the investigation.

“Now our team has got access to the 'black boxes' and we are planning to begin reconstruction of negotiations shortly. Similarly we’ve got access to the recordings of conversations between the dispatchers of the flight control center at the airport in Tehran and our pilots,” Vadym Prystaiko added.

The Minister recalled that an emergency operations center on the issue of the air crash had been set up and the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine was in constant contact with the team in Tehran and was now trying to reconstruct the aircraft with the help of technical means.

The Minister noted that the debris, as well as body parts, are scattered over a large area, including settlements. Currently, Ukrainian specialists work in the area with the largest amount of debris, where the plane crashed.

The Foreign Minister stressed that the Iranian authorities coordinated their actions with the Ukrainian side, and there was no reason to speak about lack of cooperation.

“Our team continues to work. The artificial lighting was installed, the area was fenced, a hangar was allocated, where the aircraft is being gradually assembled. At the moment we observe the interaction necessary and sufficient for our specialists to draw conclusions,” the minister said.

He also said that the remnants of those killed in the plane crash had been sent to various hospitals in Tehran, and DNA profiling was now needed to identify the deceased Ukrainian citizens.

"It is very difficult to say how long it may take," Vadym Prystaiko noted.

According to the Minister, the Ukrainian expert group includes experts from all important areas who have experience in investigating aircraft crashes.

"These are very experienced people and we can rely on their knowledge," he said.

Vadym Prystaiko also reported that the Prosecutor General's Office had already sent requests for international legal assistance in the context of open criminal proceedings.

According to him, many versions of the causes of the plane crash are considered, but it is too early to draw conclusions.

“We are the country that has lost a plane, lost a crew, people - we are directly responsible for every word we say. We do not reject any version, we are not looking for a simpler or more diplomatic way,” he said.

The Foreign Minister informed that Ukraine was also initiating the establishment of an international coalition to investigate the UIA plane crash.

"Our main task is to find out the causes of this tragedy in a fair and impartial manner. If someone is to blame - to find the perpetrator,” he said.

“The main thing we want to convey to the relatives is our condolences. And the main thing that is important for them now, in our opinion, is the right to know what really happened to the plane,” Vadym Prystaiko added, expressing condolences to everyone whose relatives died as a result of the crash.
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: Ping Monkey on January 10, 2020, 23:56:38
Surprise, surprise...
https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/iran-says-it-unintentionally-shot-down-ukrainian-jetliner-1.4762972 (https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/iran-says-it-unintentionally-shot-down-ukrainian-jetliner-1.4762972)
Quote
TEHRAN, IRAN -- Iran announced Saturday that its military `unintentionally' shot down a Ukrainian jetliner, killing all 176 aboard.
 The statement came Saturday morning and blamed "human error" for the shootdown.
 The jetliner, a Boeing 737 operated by Ukrainian International Airlines, went down on the outskirts of Tehran during takeoff just hours after Iran launched a barrage of missiles at U.S. forces.
 Iran had denied for several days that a missile downed the aircraft. But then the U.S. and Canada, citing intelligence, said they believe Iran shot down the aircraft.
 The plane, en route to the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv, was carrying 167 passengers and nine crew members from several countries, including 82 Iranians, at least 63 Canadians and 11 Ukrainians, according to officials.
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: FJAG on January 11, 2020, 00:13:14
...
I'm just speculating here (like most folks), but I wouldn't be surprised at all if within the next 48 hours Iran admits that there was a missile mistakenly fired and blames it on the increased tensions with the US.

29 hours. It just seemed logical based on what was already out there. Unlike Russians who will deny forever regardless of how strong the evidence is.

 :cheers:
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: milnews.ca on January 11, 2020, 08:40:40
Surprise, surprise...
https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/iran-says-it-unintentionally-shot-down-ukrainian-jetliner-1.4762972 (https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/iran-says-it-unintentionally-shot-down-ukrainian-jetliner-1.4762972)
Looks like I was wrong. I was sure Iran would never give up the evidence and admit fault.
Same here.

Meanwhile, some IRN media highlights ...

- OP edit to add archive.org links if you don't want to click on IRN links -
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: Remius on January 11, 2020, 10:23:21
Looks like I was wrong. I was sure Iran would never give up the evidence and admit fault.

Maybe they realized how much of an ******* it made them look on the world stage.

I remain convinced it was a combination of that, internal pressure and sanctions.  Almost all those on board were Iranian citizens or ex pats.  All had links to family in Iran. That is a lot of angry people within their own borders.

There is already unrest in Iran at various levels.  The evidence was starting to get overwhelming.

Best to just fess up and take the short term medicine.
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: daftandbarmy on January 11, 2020, 12:25:45
Speaking from planet Realpolitik, it will be interesting to see how the US and other western nations weaponize this massive F*ckup with respect to the Iranian nuclear program etc.

Meanwhile, I wouldn't want to be Gunner Farzad in the 33rd Iranian Revolutionary Guards' Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment ...
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: garb811 on January 11, 2020, 13:40:52
Discussion related to how to deal with Iran split off to the Iran Super Thread (https://army.ca/forums/index.php/topic,25516.0.html).  Also re-named the thread to reflect it was a shoot down and not a crash.

Milnet.ca Staff
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: Spencer100 on January 11, 2020, 13:41:04
Speaking from planet Realpolitik, it will be interesting to see how the US and other western nations weaponize this massive F*ckup with respect to the Iranian nuclear program etc.

Meanwhile, I wouldn't want to be Gunner Farzad in the 33rd Iranian Revolutionary Guards' Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment ...

In a way I feel sorry for him.  I bet he is very remorseful but he is going to the head chopper.  I think I would do it myself before.  Or beg that my family remains unhurt...about the best he can wish for.  Sad all around

On the bright side is this the spark that sets the fire on the mullahs?
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: FJAG on January 11, 2020, 14:58:56
In the meantime all the media and political pundits are now going to turn their attention to:
- how could a "sophisticated" air defence system like this be capable of making such a mistake, surely the plane couldn't be mistaken for a cruise missile;
- how could Iran allow commercial air traffic to continue at this time;
- why did Ukrainian International Airlines allow their plane to operate during such a tense situation;
- isn't this all Trump's fault in the first place;
- why are the Harry and Meg stories more important and covered in more depth in the Daily Mail than the Iran ones;
- etc ad nauseum.

Personally, I've heard enough. Like most major tragedies, several factors came into play which collectively caused it. Trying to parse the blame through endless and tedious analysis by "expert" commentators is, well,... tedious.

Just to add my own analysis, I expect that it wasn't just Gunner Farzad to blame. I expect that there was a second lieutenant in the loop.

 :cheers:
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: Hamish Seggie on January 11, 2020, 15:09:23
Speaking from planet Realpolitik, it will be interesting to see how the US and other western nations weaponize this massive F*ckup with respect to the Iranian nuclear program etc.

Meanwhile, I wouldn't want to be Gunner Farzad in the 33rd Iranian Revolutionary Guards' Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment ...

In a related news item, the entire crew of the anti aircraft SAM that accidentally shot down a Ukrainian airliner were killed in a horrific fiery traffic accident. (This is a joke) 😋
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: milnews.ca on January 11, 2020, 16:59:08
This from Ukraine's President today (https://president.gov.ua/en/news/zvernennya-prezidenta-ukrayini-shodo-situaciyi-zi-zbittyam-l-59253) speaking to Ukraine ...
Quote
Fellow Ukrainians!

I have just had a phone conversation with President of Iran Hassan Rouhani.

He officially apologized to all of Ukraine and the relatives of the deceased, and acknowledged the fact that Iran had shot down a Ukrainian Boeing-737.

Now I want and I am finally able to tell you in detail about all the actions of the Ukrainian authorities, starting from the tragic morning of January 8.

Immediately after the plane crash, the emergency operations center at the NSDC of Ukraine was created and started working.

The ambassador and consul of Ukraine in Iran arrived at the scene at Imam Khomeini Airport.

An extraordinary government meeting was held to decide on the creation and deployment of a search and rescue group to Iran.

It included 45 experts from the State Aviation Service, the National Bureau of Air Accidents Investigation of Ukraine, representatives from the NSDC, Security Service of Ukraine, State Emergency Service, Ministry of Defense, Ministry of Foreign Affairs and UIA.

We have sent to Tehran the best specialists of our country with extensive expertise.

The Office of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine appealed to Iran, Canada, Sweden and the United Kingdom to establish an international investigation group.

On January 9, at 3:30 our search and rescue team arrived in Tehran and started its work at the scene of the disaster 2 hours later.

I had a conversation with the President of Iran regarding a clear and full interaction with our experts. They gained access to the debris of the aircraft, black boxes, records from radars and dispatchers from the flight control center.

In the morning of January 9, the NSDC Secretary outlined 4 major versions, including the possibility of a Ukrainian plane being hit by a missile.

DNA of relatives of the victims was collected very quickly to identify the bodies of the deceased. In particular, of the cabin crew member whose relatives were in the temporarily occupied territory.

I have held working consultations with our international partners - the Prime Ministers of Canada, Sweden, the United Kingdom, the Presidents of Iran and Afghanistan, and have emphasized the need for joint action to investigate the circumstances of this tragedy.

In the evening, statements came from US, Canadian and UK leaders about the alleged downing of Ukraine's Boeing.

We urged all international partners to provide data that would confirm this version.

We worked systematically, without hysterics for the sake of one thing - achieving the result, namely finding out the truth about the circumstances of the plane crash.

On January 10, I had a conversation with United States Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and a meeting with US Chargé d'Affaires in Ukraine Christine Quinn who provided me with important and useful information for investigation.

Ambassador of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland Melinda Simmons also provided important information.

I want to commend the work of Ukrainian experts in Iran.

They worked and continue to work selflessly, diligently and around the clock. Their high professionalism and promptness, convincing preliminary findings and evidence found in Tehran did not allow to hide the truth.

Today, the leadership of the Islamic Republic of Iran has acknowledged the fact of shooting down the Ukrainian plane and admitted its fault in the plane crash.

This has also been undoubtedly aided by the support of international partners and the steadfast position of the world community. For this I express my sincere gratitude to the leaders of the US, Canada, Great Britain, other countries, international organizations - on behalf of the Ukrainian people.

At present, a group of Ukrainian experts is continuing its work.

A series of steps still need to be taken to complete the investigation.

They are currently trying to rebuild the plane.

Returning to the conversation with the President of Iran.

We agreed that right now he would order to finish the identification of the bodies of the deceased and prepare them for the return to Ukraine as soon as possible together with Ukrainian experts,.

This is to happen shortly.

We also agreed to start working together to decipher two onboard recorders - "black boxes".

We agreed on full legal and technical cooperation, including the issue of compensation.

We agreed that nobody would avoid punishment.

The Office of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine opened an investigation for the murder of Ukrainian citizens.

The Government will provide financial assistance to the families of the victims.

The state will also assist them in receiving compensation from the carrier, insurance companies and the Islamic Republic of Iran.

 

I call on all international partners of Ukraine, the entire world community to be one and persistent until the full and final investigation into all the circumstances of this disaster. All of us need it.

For the sake of a human who should feel safe in this turbulent world - on earth, in water or in the air.

For a human and human life must be of the highest value to any government, any state, any politician.

 

Fellow Ukrainians!

In these difficult days for each of us I want to say the following.

I will return all the dead to their loved ones, they will be able to bid a proper final farewell. We will honor their memory.

 All perpetrators will be punished.

We will return to Ukrainians not only a sense of security and justice, but also confidence that Ukraine will always protect you in any corner of the planet.
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: FJAG on January 11, 2020, 17:13:59
This from Ukraine's President today (https://president.gov.ua/en/news/zvernennya-prezidenta-ukrayini-shodo-situaciyi-zi-zbittyam-l-59253) speaking to Ukraine ...

While on the other hand, Trudeau who I thought handled things well until now, is sounding a wee bit strident. Iran has come a long way in this admitting culpability and apologizing. Words like "outrage" and "furious" are not helpful at this time.

Quote
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says he told Iranian President Hassan Rouhani on Saturday that Tehran must take full responsibility for downing Ukrainian International Airlines flight PS752 and killing all 176 passengers and crew on board, including 57 Canadians.

Trudeau said he is both "outraged" and "furious" over the incident and expects full co-operation from Iranian authorities in investigating the circumstances that led to the crash.

"We need full clarity on how such a horrific tragedy could have occurred," Trudeau said at a press conference on Saturday. "Families are seeking justice and accountability and they deserve closure." ...

 :2c:
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: Brihard on January 11, 2020, 17:18:20
While on the other hand, Trudeau who I thought handled things well until now, is sounding a wee bit strident. Iran has come a long way in this admitting culpability and apologizing. Words like "outrage" and "furious" are not helpful at this time.

 :2c:

That’s probably for domestic consumption. If he doesn’t make enough angry noises the drooling commentariat will crap all over him regardless of the actual content of his words.
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: Remius on January 11, 2020, 17:19:36
Looks like at least 1 revolutionary guard commander had asked that the airspace be closed until tensions were cooled down but was overruled at the time...

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/11/middleeast/iran-shot-down-ukrainian-plane/index.html
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: milnews.ca on January 11, 2020, 17:35:07
... If he doesn’t make enough angry noises the drooling commentariat will crap all over him regardless of the actual content of his words.
Social media's starting to line up with the "where's the outrage?" memes already ....
Looks like at least 1 revolutionary guard commander had asked that the airspace be closed until tensions were cooled down but was overruled at the time...

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/11/middleeast/iran-shot-down-ukrainian-plane/index.html
We are saddened at his suicide later this week ...

Meanwhile, my fave Putin parody Tweeter's at it again ...
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: PPCLI Guy on January 11, 2020, 19:43:13
Some clear-headed and factual reporting (as usual) from WAPO:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/zelensky-calls-for-admission-of-guilt-justice-after-iran-admits-to-mistakenly-shooting-down-ukrainian-plane/2020/01/11/2c85cb08-33d8-11ea-971b-43bec3ff9860_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/zelensky-calls-for-admission-of-guilt-justice-after-iran-admits-to-mistakenly-shooting-down-ukrainian-plane/2020/01/11/2c85cb08-33d8-11ea-971b-43bec3ff9860_story.html)

Quote
Iran admits to downing airliner amid calls for justice, transparency

By Erin Cunningham and
Isabelle Khurshudyan
Jan. 11, 2020 at 6:07 p.m. EST
In Iran's account, the missile operator had 10 seconds to decide whether the plane was a threat. The decision was made. And a surface-to-air missile streaked toward the passenger jet.

Iran’s admission Saturday that “human error” brought down Ukrainian International Airlines Flight 752 added fresh details to what Western officials had concluded — a missile was to blame for Wednesday’s disaster that left all 176 people aboard the Kyiv-bound flight dead.

What comes next is how Iran will respond to demands to allow a full and open investigation and for authorities in Tehran to bring the perpetrators to justice. Pressure was not just from Ukraine and other nations whose citizens were aboard the Boeing 737-800.

Protests flared on the streets of Tehran, where apparent student-led rallies decried the missile mistake and chanted rare denunciations against military chiefs: “Resign, resign, resign.”

Iranian officials said military personnel targeted the plane as it turned toward a “sensitive military site” shortly after departing Tehran’s international airport before dawn.

The statement was a stunning about-face for Iran after days of rejecting Western assertions that a surface-to-air missile brought down the plane.

Now, leaders in Tehran face new challenges.

Ukraine has led demands for compensation and accountability, which could force Iran to appease the international community with a rare public reckoning over a military action. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, urged the nation’s military to conduct a thorough inquiry.

At home, the tragedy quickly brought protests back onto the streets in another show of anger. In November, protests erupted around the country after an increase in gasoline prices, leading to deadly clashes with security forces.

Many Iranians on the plane were students in Iran or studying abroad in Canada. Campuses in Iran became a gathering place for grief and rage.

At a vigil Saturday at Sharif University of Technology in Tehran, crowds chanted “down, down, Khamenei.” At Amirkabir University of Technology, a crowd yelled slogans against Iran’s powerful Revolutionary Guard Corps — a dramatic contrast to the widespread mourning after a U.S. drone strike in Iraq killed the leader of the Revolutionary Guard’s Quds Force, Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani.

Iran struck back for Soleimani’s death with ballistic missiles against an Iraqi base with U.S. personnel four hours before the Ukrainian plane burst into a fireball.

President Trump, in a tweet also posted in Farsi, addressed the “brave, long-suffering people of Iran.”

“We are following your protests, and are inspired by your courage,” he wrote.

In Tehran, Britain’s ambassador to Iran, Robert Macaire, was detained by Iranian security forces after attending what was planned as a “vigil” for those who died in the crash. Macaire left when protests broke out, according to an official familiar with the incident who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive diplomatic matter. Iran’s Tasnim news agency reported that Macaire was held for more than an hour before being released.

Britain’s foreign secretary, Dominic Raab, denounced it as a “flagrant violation of international law.”

“The Iranian government is at a cross-roads moment,” Raab said. “It can continue its march towards pariah status with all the political and economic isolation that entails, or take steps to deescalate tensions and engage in a diplomatic path forwards.”

The General Staff of Iran’s Armed Forces apologized for what it said was “human error that caused the crash” of the Boeing 737-800.

Iran’s foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, offered “profound regrets, apologies and condolences.” But he also appeared to link the missile launch and the hyper-tense atmosphere in the region.

“Human error at time of crisis caused by U.S. adventurism led to disaster,” he tweeted, adding a red broken-heart emoji.

Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, head of the Revolutionary Guard’s aerospace division, said the unit accepted responsibility for the shoot-down, describing a communication breakdown and a missile operator who had 10 seconds to decide whether the passenger jet was a threat.

“I wish I was dead,” Hajizadeh said on state TV about his first reaction when told about the missile mistake.

“This morning was not good, but it brought the truth,” Zelensky wrote on Facebook.

Later, he said that Iranian President Hassan Rouhani agreed on “full legal and technical cooperation, including compensation.”

“We agreed,” Zelensky said in a videotaped message, “that no one would slip away” from the investigation into the missile firing.

In a separate statement, Rouhani called the missile launch an “unforgivable mistake,” and he said officials must “address the weaknesses of the nation’s defense systems to make sure such a disaster is never repeated.”

For Iran, the incident brought the flip side to a similar tragedy. In 1988, the U.S. guided-missile cruiser USS Vincennes fired a surface-to-air missile that mistakenly brought down an Iran Air passenger jet over the Persian Gulf, killing all 290 people aboard.

In a televised news conference, Hajizadeh said defense systems were “on their highest level of alert” that morning following Trump’s threats to strike 52 sites across Iran — and that additional defense batteries had been stationed around Tehran.

He said authorities interviewed the individual operator of the antiaircraft system that brought down the plane.

“His communication system was disrupted,” Hajizadeh said. “He had 10 seconds to decide whether to shoot or not.”

Hajizadeh said Saturday that the Civil Aviation Authority should not be blamed: “All of the responsibility is with us.”

After Iran air disaster, Ukraine’s president is again unwittingly entangled in an international rift

The flight was mostly Iranians, Canadians and Ukrainians, and 138 of the passengers were headed to Toronto. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said in a statement that the downing was “a national tragedy.”

Trudeau — after a call with Rouhani — said there still needs to be a “full and complete investigation” and possible compensation for the families of the victims needs “to be part of the mix.”

Iran’s admission, however, is an “important step,” Trudeau told reporters.

On Facebook on Saturday, the director of Ukraine International Airlines, Evgeny Dykhne, said, “We didn’t doubt for one second that our crew and our plane could not cause this terrible plane crash.”

Zelensky’s office put out photos Saturday of shrapnel damage on the plane, an indication the Ukrainians had evidence that might have pushed Iran into its public admission.

Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, said Ukrainian investigators quickly determined a missile strike brought down the plane.

“We came to this conclusion before the Americans and Canadians,” Danilov told The Washington Post. “Because we were working there — there are no Americans and Canadians there. There are our experts who confirmed our fears that it happened in this particular way.”

“Look,” he added, “we have people working in Iran. You want us to say this so that they kicked our people out, that we weren’t able to work there?”

Still, Ukrainian authorities could face questions over the decision to allow the airliner to take off despite the threat from Iranian missiles.

More than two hours before the flight took off, the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration issued a notice prohibiting American carriers and commercial operators from flying in the airspace over Baghdad, the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman.

Ukraine’s aviation authorities did not issue a similar notice for its carriers at the time — nor did Iran’s Civil Aviation Organization close the airspace over the country. At least three other aircraft were in flight near Tehran at the time of the downing, according to civil aviation monitors.

Ukrainian authorities came under criticism in 2014 for their failure to close the airspace over the conflict zones of Donetsk and Luhansk after the July 2014 downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17.

That passenger airliner was downed by a missile shot from a Russian-made Buk surface-to-air missile system from rebel territory in eastern Ukraine. The attack on the Boeing 777, which was passing over the conflict region while flying from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur, killed all 298 people aboard.

A joint investigative team from Australia, Belgium, Malaysia, the Netherlands and Ukraine identified a Russian military unit in charge of the antiaircraft missile system and has pursued prosecution of Russian and Ukrainian citizens allegedly involved. But Russia has continued to deny involvement in the incident.

Khurshudyan reported from Moscow. David L. Stern in Kyiv and Paul Sonne and Carol Morello in Washington contributed to this report.
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: milnews.ca on January 11, 2020, 21:41:15
Latest from Team Blue (https://www.conservative.ca/canadas-conservatives-demand-accountability-on-ukraine-international-airlines-flight-752/) ...
Quote
The Hon. Erin O’Toole, Conservative Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs, James Bezan, Shadow Minister for National Defence, Pierre Paul-Hus, Shadow Minister for Public Safety, and Todd Doherty, Shadow Minister for Transport, issued the following statement calling on the Trudeau Liberals to take immediate action regarding the developing situation in Iran:

“Last night, the Iranian regime took responsibility for shooting down Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752. As a result, 176 people including 57 Canadians lost their lives and their friends and families are hurting and reeling from the loss.

“Justin Trudeau and the Liberals must take immediate action to ensure those responsible are held accountable for this terrible atrocity.

“Canada’s Conservatives call on the Trudeau Liberals to take the following measures:

1. Immediately implement the Conservative motion passed by Parliament in 2018 to list Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization.*
2. Demand Iran compensate all victims of the crash, repatriate their remains, and hold the perpetrators of this atrocity accountable.
3. Be prepared to impose Magnitsky Sanctions on Iran if they don’t fully cooperate with the international investigation.

“The fact that 57 Canadians lost their lives due to an Iranian missile requires action by the Trudeau Liberals. The status quo is unacceptable. The actions listed above represent a measured response to ensure that the families of the victims receive justice.

“The Iranian regime must not get a free pass after killing 57 Canadians. Canada’s Conservatives will continue to advocate for the appropriate and measured response necessary to ensure that Iran is held accountable and the families of the victims receive the justice they deserve.”

-30-
* - So far, only a part of the IRGC is listed as a terrorist organization (https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/ntnl-scrt/cntr-trrrsm/lstd-ntts/crrnt-lstd-ntts-en.aspx#35) - more on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' Qods Force here (https://globalnews.ca/news/6398073/qassem-soleimani-arming-canadas-enemies/) ...
Quote
... “Qassem Soleimani was a brutal yet talented terrorist leader,” (former CSIS official) Andrew Ellis told Global News in an interview. “That’s the best way I can describe him.”

“He was supporting organizations that were sympathetic to the Iranian cause and specifically organizations whose mandate was violence,” Ellis said. “He never ceased in his desire to cause mayhem and violence throughout the region.”

During Canada’s military mission in Afghanistan, for example, Soleimani’s Quds Force secretly supplied the Taliban with materials to attack international coalition troops, said Ellis, a former assistant director of operations at the Canadian Security Intelligence Service.

Although careful to hide their involvement, Quds Force operatives backed the armed extremists to undermine the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force mission, he said.

He said it was difficult to know the extent of Soleimani’s role in Afghanistan, where Canada lost more than 150 troops, many killed by improvised explosives. Another 1,800 were wounded.

But he said if the Quds Force was supplying the Taliban, Soleimani was likely involved. “I would speculate that he had a role in supplying Canada’s enemies. And those enemies subsequently hurt Canadians.”

(...)

Ellis said the goal of the Quds Force was to spread instability in Afghanistan; Iran knew that Taliban attacks would lead to reprisals, resulting in losses for both the Taliban and the U.S.-led coalition.

“It just causes massive disruption.”

Canada’s list of proscribed terrorist groups accuses the Quds Force of providing “arms, funding and paramilitary training to extremist groups” including the Taliban.

The Quds Force is also linked to armed groups in Yemen, Bahrain and Iraq, as well as Hezbollah and Hamas. Soleimani “would do anything he could to disrupt and cause harm to not only Israelis but innocent Jewish people around the world,” Ellis said ...
More @ link
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: tomahawk6 on January 11, 2020, 22:53:57
Iran might need some sanctions relief so they can pay the families of those people onboard the aircraft. The US had to do that after the USN had shot down an Iranian airliner.
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: Old Sweat on January 11, 2020, 23:51:07
Who did it is established, because the Iranian government has taken responsibility. The how and why is attracting more than its share of speculation. We don't know, but I subscribe to the principle that something that could be attributed to malice, is more likely to be a result of incompetence and/or stupidity, you know, what the Canadian Army describes as a brain fart. 

Unless we want to start an office pool, let's see what else is disclosed.
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: Brihard on January 11, 2020, 23:57:24
Who did it is established, because the Iranian government has taken responsibility. The how and why is attracting more than its share of speculation. We don't know, but I subscribe to the principle that something that could be attributed to malice, is more likely to be a result of incompetence and/or stupidity, you know, what the Canadian Army describes as a brain fart. 

Unless we want to start an office pool, let's see what else is disclosed.

Or simply the fog of war, for that matter. There’s a huge gap between the general officer(s) who would have been making the strategic decisions, and whatever their equivalent is of an air defence battery commander who, in a vacuum of direction, gave the order to fire.
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: FJAG on January 12, 2020, 00:35:14
Who did it is established, because the Iranian government has taken responsibility. The how and why is attracting more than its share of speculation. We don't know, but I subscribe to the principle that something that could be attributed to malice, is more likely to be a result of incompetence and/or stupidity, you know, what the Canadian Army describes as a brain fart. 

Unless we want to start an office pool, let's see what else is disclosed.

That's why I think JT's call for:

Quote
A full and complete investigation "must" be conducted. "Full clarity" is needed. Families "deserve" closure. It is "absolutely necessary" that Canada participate in the investigation and Canadian officials "expect" the full co-operation of Iranian authorities. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani had responded with a "commitment to collaborate."

is ridiculous and borne out of a lack of understanding of both the Iranians and the complexity of the event.

A "full and complete investigation" would require everything from: an understanding of the quality of the Iranian troops and officer corps, their basic and advanced training; the command and control and communication systems in place; and a technical inspection of the equipment in use. Any rational being would understand that Iran would never consent to any such investigation involving foreign participants or even a release of whatever Board of Inquiry (if they even have such a thing) they produce internally.

It strikes me that their admission of responsibility, and commitment to compensation (part of their own Islamic legal system of Diya) is reasonable thing to expect in this kind of scenario. The actual compensation amounts will, of course, be an issue for the future to see if justice will actually be done to the victims' families. Let's call a spade a spade, the Iranians have already exceeded by their actions in a very laudable way, the weaselly, snivelling denials that continue to come out of Russia respecting the MH17 shoot down. To expect a public "full and complete investigation" as JT is signalling is expecting too much and, if anything, is inflaming the expectations of those who are grieving. Methinks this is JT trying to look forceful. He's not good at it. This is one of those situations where you can get more with honey than with vinegar. The Ukrainian president looks to me like he has a better approach with Iran.

 :cheers:
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: Journeyman on January 12, 2020, 10:41:41
“Canada’s Conservatives call on the Trudeau Liberals to take the following measures:
…..
3. Be prepared to impose Magnitsky Sanctions on Iran if they don’t fully cooperate with the international investigation.
I think the Conservatives may be confused.     ???

A.  The Magnitsky Act (2012) is an American law, not Canadian.

B.  It applies to human rights violations, not criminal acts (like obstructing an investigation)  [although Trump expanded its applicability via one of his Executive Orders in 2017 to include  "human rights abusers, kleptocrats, and corrupt actors."
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: Brihard on January 12, 2020, 11:33:05
I think the Conservatives may be confused.     ???

A.  The Magnitsky Act (2012) is an American law, not Canadian.

B.  It applies to human rights violations, not criminal acts (like obstructing an investigation)  [although Trump expanded its applicability via one of his Executive Orders in 2017 to include  "human rights abusers, kleptocrats, and corrupt actors."

Justice for Victims of Corrupt Foreign Officials Act (Sergei Magnitsky Law)

S.C. 2017, c. 21

https://laws.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/J-2.3/FullText.html

You’re right though that this is aimed at corrupt practices and corrupt foreign officials, not military screwups. Looking at the wording of the act, it would not appear to be applicable to ‘mere’ obstruction of an investigation into an event like this. CPC are banging the minority opposition drum, that’s all.
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: Underway on January 12, 2020, 14:53:27
I don't envy the PM on this one.  The options are extremely limited, both for a solution for closure for the families and the geopolitical realities.

The best I think we can hope for is the bodies are returned to their loved ones.  The government should push for that above all else. After they have returned them, we look at other options.
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: CloudCover on January 12, 2020, 15:48:10
Unless this can be framed as an act of terrorism, there is very little Canadian or International Courts can do. Iran is not a signatory to the Rome Statute. The Canadian State Immunity Act grants Iran immunity from any court or proceeding in Canada. Iran (and Syria) are the only entities listed in the regulations under the SIA that would not have immunity in the case of terrorism.

Options, if they even exist at all, are very limited.

This might be shocking to many people, but even if Iran had boarded the aircraft and tortured every single passenger to death, Canadian law does not touch them. On this point the Supreme Court of Canada has recently upheld State Immunity: Kazemi Estate v. Islamic Republic of Iran, 2014 SCC 62 (CanLII), [2014] 3 SCR 176, <http://canlii.ca/t/gdwht>

"State immunity is not solely a rule of international law, it also reflects domestic choices made for policy reasons, particularly in matters of international relations. Canada’s commitment to the universal prohibition of torture is strong. However, Parliament has made a choice to give priority to a foreign state’s immunity over civil redress for citizens who have been tortured abroad. That policy choice is not a comment about the evils of torture, but rather an indication of what principles Parliament has chosen to promote.

In Canada, state immunity from civil suits is codified in the SIA. That Act is a complete codification of Canadian law as it relates to state immunity from civil proceedings. It provides an exhaustive list of exceptions to state immunity and it does not contain an exception to immunity from civil suits alleging acts of torture committed abroad. For that reason, reliance need not, and indeed cannot, be placed on the common law, jus cogens norms or customary international law to carve out additional exceptions to the immunity granted to foreign states pursuant to the SIA. Although there is no doubt that the prohibition of torture has reached the level of a peremptory norm, the current state of customary international law regarding redress for victims of torture does not alter the SIA, nor does it render it ambiguous."

Canada has no extradition treaty with Iran to stand trial under Canadian Criminal law. The ICC has no jurisdiction over Iran because it is not a signatory or a failed state.  Unless there is some convention somewhere that Canada and Iran both have ratified and signed, there is almost no legal recourse at present.

Here's what will happen: nothing.  Iran is going to pay 8K to each victim of the shoot down. Likely Canada will pay more and then try somehow to recover the amount from Iran. (There's no legal basis for Canada to do that, but we all know it will happen.)

Edited: formatting.
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: Brihard on January 12, 2020, 16:14:35
Unless this can be framed as an act of terrorism, there is very little Canadian or International Courts can do. Iran is not a signatory to the Rome Statute. The Canadian State Immunity Act grants Iran immunity from any court or proceeding in Canada. Iran (and Syria) are the only entities listed in the regulations under the SIA that would not have immunity in the case of terrorism.

Options, if they even exist at all, are very limited.

This might be shocking to many people, but even if Iran had boarded the aircraft and tortured every single passenger to death, Canadian law does not touch them. On this point the Supreme Court of Canada has recently upheld State Immunity: Kazemi Estate v. Islamic Republic of Iran, 2014 SCC 62 (CanLII), [2014] 3 SCR 176, <http://canlii.ca/t/gdwht>

"State immunity is not solely a rule of international law, it also reflects domestic choices made for policy reasons, particularly in matters of international relations. Canada’s commitment to the universal prohibition of torture is strong. However, Parliament has made a choice to give priority to a foreign state’s immunity over civil redress for citizens who have been tortured abroad. That policy choice is not a comment about the evils of torture, but rather an indication of what principles Parliament has chosen to promote.

In Canada, state immunity from civil suits is codified in the SIA. That Act is a complete codification of Canadian law as it relates to state immunity from civil proceedings. It provides an exhaustive list of exceptions to state immunity and it does not contain an exception to immunity from civil suits alleging acts of torture committed abroad. For that reason, reliance need not, and indeed cannot, be placed on the common law, jus cogens norms or customary international law to carve out additional exceptions to the immunity granted to foreign states pursuant to the SIA. Although there is no doubt that the prohibition of torture has reached the level of a peremptory norm, the current state of customary international law regarding redress for victims of torture does not alter the SIA, nor does it render it ambiguous."

Canada has no extradition treaty with Iran to stand trial under Canadian Criminal law. The ICC has no jurisdiction over Iran because it is not a signatory or a failed state.  Unless there is some convention somewhere that Canada and Iran both have ratified and signed, there is almost no legal recourse at present.

Here's what will happen: nothing.  Iran is going to pay 8K to each victim of the shoot down. Likely Canada will pay more and then try somehow to recover the amount from Iran. (There's no legal basis for Canada to do that, but we all know it will happen.)

Edited: formatting.

Regarding the shoot down, offhand I don’t see any plausible way we could charge any individuals criminally anyway, absent being able to prove that a deliberate decision was made to knowingly shoot down a civilian airliner. Legally, assuming it was a genuine mistake, there’s little real difference between the shoot down, and one of our LAVs taking out a taxi in Kandahar under the mistaken belief that it might be a VBIED.

On some of the brutal repression of internal dissent, hypothetically Canada could apply the provisions of the Crimes Against Humanity and War Crimes Act, if there were a Canadian victim or the accused stepped foot onto Canadian soil. While the CAHWCA draws its definitions from the Rome Statute, it doesn’t require an accused to be an official of a state signatory to be subject to the jurisdiction of the Act. Such a hypothetical prosecution (say against a police or military or other government official who had a direct role in crimes against humanity with a Canadian victim) could result in an INTERPOL red notice being issued, and if the accused were to be flagged at a port of entry of a country with an extradition treaty with Canada, they could get picked up and extradited for prosecution. The RCMP has a small unit that, among other things, would carry out such investigations.

Needless to say, while the set of circumstances could happen, this would be a long shot. It also would be purely criminal in nature, and would not provide civil restitution or remedy.
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: CloudCover on January 12, 2020, 16:27:26
In the case I noted above, the Supreme Court ruled there is no difference between a state and officials of a state. There is no method for Canada to prosecute Iranian nationals for torture crimes (committed after 1985) specified under domestic Canadian law. The foreign state would have to agree, and then the accused would have Charter rights and good luck after that. So it’s a rather pointless thing anyway. However, the Supreme Court did kick the ball back to Parliament to change and create new laws about these things, but obviously that didn’t happen.

Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: Brihard on January 12, 2020, 17:18:51
In the case I noted above, the Supreme Court ruled there is no difference between a state and officials of a state. There is no method for Canada to prosecute Iranian nationals for torture crimes (committed after 1985) specified under domestic Canadian law. The foreign state would have to agree, and then the accused would have Charter rights and good luck after that. So it’s a rather pointless thing anyway. However, the Supreme Court did kick the ball back to Parliament to change and create new laws about these things, but obviously that didn’t happen.

...Yes there is. As I said, the Crimes Against Humanity and War Crimes Act. But there would have to be a Canadian nexus. It’s a rarely applied law, but it is on the books and it is in use. A foreign official can be prosecuted under our domestic law for a criminal offense under the act (essentially it codifies Jus Cogens into domestic law). But for the jurisdictional elements in S.8 of the act to be met there has to be a Canadian nexus under one of a few enumerated conditions. An Iranian national, if they tortured or killed a Canadian citizen in an act of political repression, could definitely be prosecuted, notwithstanding the many legal challenges that exist. Alternatively anyone who has committed any of the many acts constituting crimes against humanity or war crimes is subject to prosecution if they later touch Canadian soil, such as if they arrive as a prospective asylum claimant. Most frequently these individuals are identified before they touch our soil and are denied visas/immigration/refugee status while still abroad.

In any case, I’m not suggesting it’s at all likely to actually happen. I’m saying the law is in place that it very conceivably could. Say a Canadian citizen of Iranian descent returned to Iran, was tortured/murdered for political purposes, and witnesses were able to substantiate the offence and file a criminal complaint. That could lead to an investigation and prosecution.

https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/c-45.9/FullText.html
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: milnews.ca on January 12, 2020, 17:54:21
... Iran is going to pay 8K to each victim of the shoot down ...
I've seen UKR media saying the Ukrainian gov't will pay ~$8K per victim (https://www.unian.info/society/10826687-pm-honcharuk-ukraine-to-allocate-over-us-8-300-to-families-of-victims-of-iran-plane-crash.html), and will continue to chase/work with Iran in getting Iran to pay over & above that as well.  Have you seen anything on IRN confirming payment (as opposed to broad commitments to talk about compensation)?  Thx!
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: Retired AF Guy on January 12, 2020, 20:13:48
That didn't take long. Thousands of Iranians take to the street to protest the destruction of the Ukrainian airliner.

Quote
Thousands of Iranians Have Bravely Protested the Government’s Role in Ukrainian Plane Crash

The regime admitted late Friday its armed forces were responsible for the downed the airliner and the deaths of all 176 people on board.

Samantha Michaels

Thousands of people took to the streets across Iran this weekend to condemn their government for shooting down a Ukrainian passenger plane—killing all 176 people on board—and then lying for days to hide its role in what happened.

In Tehran, people flooded main squares on Saturday afternoon demanding repercussions for Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and that officials responsible for the plane crash be punished. Protests also rocked other cities, including Shiraz, Esfahan, Hamedan, and Orumiyeh. In videos posted on social media, the New York Times reports, protesters yelled, “Death to liars!” and “Death to the dictator!” In Tehran, anti-riot police unleashed tear gas and fired water cannons at demonstrators.

The bluntness of these protesters, captured in videos below, is particularly striking following a brutal crackdown by the regime late last year on demonstrations that were initially sparked by an increase in gas prices. According to CNN, the UN Human Rights Office had information to show that some 200 people were killed and thousands were arrested during the crackdown.

    #IranProtests
    The public's anger has a clear target: Khamenei.
    Crowds chant "Khaemnei is a murderer, his regime is obsolete."#IranPlaneCrash pic.twitter.com/WQpXeM65Zj

    — Farnaz Fassihi (@farnazfassihi) January 11, 2020

The Ukrainian plane was struck by surface-to-air missiles minutes after taking off from an airport near Tehran on Wednesday. It carried passengers from Iran, Canada, Ukraine, Sweden, Afghanistan, Germany, and United Kingdom, and was en route to Ukraine. Hours earlier Iran had launched an attack on US targets in Iraq, in response to the US killing of Iranian Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani earlier this month, and Iranian officials said they had been on alert for a potential counterattack.

Iranian officials admitted their role in the crash late Friday, after days of denials. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani described the incident as a “disastrous mistake,” and Khamenei called for an investigation. On Twitter, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif offered his “profound regrets, apologies and condolences,” but also criticized the United States for ratcheting up tensions by killing Soleimani. “Human error at time of crisis caused by US adventurism led to disaster,” he wrote.

On Saturday, some of the Iranian demonstrators ripped up photos of Suleimani, according to reports from Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency. In a commentary, the news agency condemned Iran’s leaders for trying to cover up their role in the downing of the plane. “It is pivotal that those who were hiding the truth from the public for the past 72 hours be held accountable, we cannot let this go,” it read, according to the Times.

 Link (https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2020/01/iran-protests-ukraine-plane-crash-photos/)
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: CloudCover on January 13, 2020, 01:49:38
Thought this was quite series of tweets and a good article. Summed nicely with "We are mourning and I am livid" ...
 
"https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/maple-leaf-foods-ceo-takes-aim-at-u-s-government-over-plane-crash-in-iran-1.4764217
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: Dolphin_Hunter on January 13, 2020, 06:48:46
Thought this was quite series of tweets and a good article. Summed nicely with "We are mourning and I am livid" ...
 
"https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/maple-leaf-foods-ceo-takes-aim-at-u-s-government-over-plane-crash-in-iran-1.4764217

Trump didn’t shoot down that plane.


Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: Hamish Seggie on January 13, 2020, 07:59:40
Trump didn’t shoot down that plane.

Too many “experts “ can now spread their ridiculous assertions thanks to social media. I’m not saying Trump is a saint but the CEO of that company can pound sand. STFU and that includes all those Hollywood limousine liberals.

Rant ends. Cheers 🍻
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: Jarnhamar on January 13, 2020, 08:09:59
Edit
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: Journeyman on January 13, 2020, 09:40:52
Trump didn’t shoot down that plane.
Obviously not. 

From Twitter (so it's even more authentic than the CBC comment section):
Quote
Was going to go to sleep but now reading conspiracy theories by MAGA accounts that the plane was shot down by the Canadian deep state because it had six nuclear scientists on board. Peak internet.
       :Tin-Foil-Hat:    :pop:    #TweetsFromTwits
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: milnews.ca on January 13, 2020, 10:56:23
I've seen UKR media saying the Ukrainian gov't will pay ~$8K per victim (https://www.unian.info/society/10826687-pm-honcharuk-ukraine-to-allocate-over-us-8-300-to-families-of-victims-of-iran-plane-crash.html), and will continue to chase/work with Iran in getting Iran to pay over & above that as well.  Have you seen anything on IRN confirming payment (as opposed to broad commitments to talk about compensation)?  Thx!
Update (https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/635172.html):  based on current currency rates, UKR will pay 200,000 UKR hrvynia (CAN $10,890) "of assistance to the families of those who were killed in the plane crash in Iran and will monitor the proper payoff of insurance payments in accordance with the Montreal Convention."
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: milnews.ca on January 13, 2020, 20:46:19
Let the doubts creep in (https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/01/was-the-shootdown-of-the-ukrainian-airplane-near-tehran-really-a-mistake.html) ...
Quote
... Radio communication can be unreliable. The people at the other side of the operators call may have been talking to someone else or could  not react immediately. Air defense personal is trained to always presume electronic interference by enemy forces. The U.S. has publicly bragged about its cyber-attacks on IRGC systems. U.S. air attacks typically come behind a wave of electronic countermeasures.

Under these circumstances - highest possible alarm level, current warnings of hostile cruise missiles, unknown target flying towards a presumably military objective, lack of communication, little decision time - the operator of the Tor system did what he was trained to do ...
#AlternativeNarratives
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: Brad Sallows on January 14, 2020, 01:05:44
>unknown target flying towards a presumably military objective

How do civilian aircraft flying regular routes and schedules become "unknown"?  Air defence specialists are not expected to know this information?  There is no way to "interrogate" civilian aircraft?
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: milnews.ca on January 14, 2020, 07:59:45
This, from IRN media ...
Quote
Official: Canada, US, France Refuse to Help Decoding Black Box

Canada, France and the US have declined Iran's request to help extracting data from the black box of the Ukrainian plane which suffered an unfortunate accident on Wednesday, Head of the Accident Investigation Board of the Civil Aviation Organization Hassan Rezayeefar announced on Monday.

Rezayeefar said Iran has asked Canada, France and the US to bring their software and hardware equipment to Tehran to extract data of the black box of the Ukrainian plane that was downed in an air defense incident on the Southwestern outskirt of Tehran on Wednesday, but they have denied Iran's request.

Then, Iran offered Ukraine, Sweden, Britain, Canada, and the US to send the black box to an impartial laboratory and France was the country all five countries agreed on, the official added.

Black box recordings of the Ukrainian airliner will be downloaded in France, head of the accident investigation board of Civil Aviation Organization of Iran announced on Saturday ...
More in full story attached.
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: SeaKingTacco on January 14, 2020, 10:25:44
>unknown target flying towards a presumably military objective

How do civilian aircraft flying regular routes and schedules become "unknown"?  Air defence specialists are not expected to know this information?  There is no way to "interrogate" civilian aircraft?

The evidence seems to indicate that the Iranian Air Defence is not well integrated into the overall airspace control structure, meaning they do not have access (or easy access) to the civil air picture, which is imperative to properly make a shoot/no shoot decisions.

I doubt Russian weapons engineers give much thought to including the ability to interogate civil air transponders in their AD systems, but I could be proven wrong on that point.

As an aside, there was a thread around here awhile ago suggesting that the "easy" solution to the Cdn Army's current lack of an AD capability was to just give AD weapons systems to infantry units. This incident illustrates why that is not a good idea. The easy part is part is firing the missile. The hard part is understanding the overal airspace control structure and situation. It takes years of expertise to effectively command and control an air defence unit.
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: Hamish Seggie on January 14, 2020, 10:30:30
I'd like to add that the leadership of Iran may not be all that well versed in technology and all the small details. Allah will provide and guide, right?
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: Good2Golf on January 14, 2020, 10:54:41
I'd like to add that the leadership of Iran may not be all that well versed in technology and all the small details. Allah will provide and guide, right?

...well they’ve managed to keep flying F-14 Tomcats, and they’re pretty cyber-savvy.
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: dapaterson on January 14, 2020, 11:15:02
...well they’ve managed to keep flying F-14 Tomcats...

So you're saying the RCAF should try recruiting their technicians?
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: Hamish Seggie on January 14, 2020, 11:17:59
So you're saying the RCAF should try recruiting their technicians?

SHHHHH don't give them any ideas.....
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: milnews.ca on January 14, 2020, 11:21:40
A few new tidbits ...
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: garb811 on January 14, 2020, 18:04:36
Split the ADA tangent off into the All Things Air Defence/AA (merged) (https://army.ca/forums/index.php/topic,17114.msg1594704.html#msg1594704) thread.

Milnet.ca Staff
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: milnews.ca on January 15, 2020, 10:36:38
Some more tidbits ....
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: Jarnhamar on January 18, 2020, 09:08:20
I keep reading about compensation and money. Ukraine is giving people $8000 (or whatever) Canada is giving vicitims $25'000, Iran better compensate too!

Seems like the spotlight shifted to money pretty quick.

I read somewhere families might get compensated up to $2million from Canada. Will this be a standard when a Canadian is accidentally killed or murdered abroad? At home?
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: milnews.ca on January 18, 2020, 17:17:44
I keep reading about compensation and money. Ukraine is giving people $8000 (or whatever) Canada is giving vicitims $25'000, Iran better compensate too!

Seems like the spotlight shifted to money pretty quick.
In some cases, it may not be cheap/easy to bring a dead loved one back from a country we don't have diplomatic relations with.  And so far, Canada and others have been clear that they expect IRN to cough up, too.  How long that'll take?  I'm not optimistic.

I read somewhere families might get compensated up to $2million from Canada. Will this be a standard when a Canadian is accidentally killed or murdered abroad? At home?
Remember where you've seen that?  I haven't seen the $2M figure myself, but it's not a wild-*** figure.  If Canada does pay that range of money per family/victim/whatever, I really hope Iran'll be paying that back.  Fingers crossed ...
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: mariomike on January 18, 2020, 17:44:53
I read somewhere families might get compensated up to $2million from Canada.


"The outlay will cost just over $2 million to the government."
https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/newsalert-canada-to-compensate-families-25000-for-canadian-victims-who-died-on-flight-ps752

Total combined.

Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: milnews.ca on January 19, 2020, 07:57:59

"The outlay will cost just over $2 million to the government."
https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/newsalert-canada-to-compensate-families-25000-for-canadian-victims-who-died-on-flight-ps752

Total combined.
Thanks for that!
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: Jarnhamar on January 19, 2020, 09:19:44
Thanks for that!

It was on another forum but looks like it was bad info. (Thanks for the link and correction MM).


Speaking of compensation I was reading  there were a few GoFundMe pages that got squashed because they referenced the Middle East and Iran. Also sanctions against Iran seem to play a part in raising money for Canadians.

Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: Hamish Seggie on January 21, 2020, 13:28:05
I’ve read Iran is asking for the equipment to download the black boxes. Good luck with that.
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: milnews.ca on January 23, 2020, 22:26:51
Speaking of compensation I was reading  there were a few GoFundMe pages that got squashed because they referenced the Middle East and Iran. Also sanctions against Iran seem to play a part in raising money for Canadians.
And there's also the classic manouver (https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/class-action-launched-regarding-ukrainian-airlines-flight-ps752-846667120.html) that gets used in these situations as well - although often an exceedingly sloooooooow one ...
Quote
Announced Today - the filing of a proposed class action against Iran, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Ukrainian Airline concerning the downing of Flight PS752.

On January 8, 2020, UIA Flight PS752 took off hours after the IRGC fired missiles and struck US bases in Iraq. Minutes after takeoff, IRGC missiles struck Flight PS752, causing it to crash to the ground. There were no survivors.

The class action is on behalf of the passengers and the passengers' families. The Aircraft was carrying 176 people on board, including 9 crew members, 15 children, 57 Canadian citizens; and 138 of the passengers were returning to Canada. New York-based litigation funding company, Galactic Litigation Partners LLC has agreed, subject to court approval, to finance the class action.

Iran ultimately admitted its missile defence system shot down the plane after initially blaming technical or mechanical error. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani stated it was an "unforgiveable mistake".

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said "shooting down a civilian aircraft is horrific", "Iran must take full responsibility" and "we expect Iran to compensate these families." Ukrainian officials said that Iran should compensate the victims' families.

At the time of the crash, the US Federal Aviation Administration banned civilian aircraft from flying over the region. After the downing of Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 in 2014, many airlines respect FAA notices when making safety decisions. Several airlines, including Austrian Airlines, Air France, Air India, and KLM, rerouted their flights. Other airlines such as Emirates, Lufthansa, Flydubai and Turkish Airlines cancelled flights to airports in Iran and Iraq.

Flight PS752 departed despite the known risks ...

Also, word from Kurdish media of one of the victims returned to Canada this week (https://www.kurdistan24.net/en/news/0dce3119-a6d1-440c-9232-cb1481f85e3b), and the latest from Canada's Transportation Safety Board (http://www.bst-tsb.gc.ca/eng/medias-media/decl-stat/2020/20200123.html) ...
Quote
The Transportation Safety Board of Canada (TSB) is committed to keeping Canadians, particularly the families and loved ones of those killed in the downing of  Ukrainian International Airlines flight PS752, informed of its activities in support of the Iranian-led safety investigation as soon as, and to the greatest extent, it can.

The TSB’s two investigators have completed their work in Tehran and Kyiv and will soon be heading home to Canada.
Investigation activities to date

As previously indicated, two TSB air accident investigators spent 6 days in Tehran, where they had several meetings with officials from the Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau of the Islamic Republic of Iran (AAIB), visited the accident site, and examined the wreckage, which is secured in a separate location. The AAIB was cooperative and helpful in its interactions with the TSB investigators.

This week, the TSB investigators spent two days in Kyiv for joint meetings with the AAIB of Iran and the National Bureau of Air Accidents Investigation of Ukraine NBAAI, during which they continued to share information regarding the investigation. In particular, an assessment is underway regarding the feasibility of downloading the aircraft flight data and cockpit voice recorders in Ukraine.
Next steps: Flight data and cockpit voice recorders

The TSB understands that the aircraft’s flight data and cockpit voice recorders—the “black boxes”—are still in Iran, and that Iran is assessing options for their download and analysis, including doing it in Iran. The TSB has been invited to participate in the download and analysis of the recorders and will deploy a second team of investigators who specialize in aircraft recorder download and analysis wherever and whenever that activity takes place.

This safety investigation doesn’t end with the downloading of these recorders. While this activity may provide additional critical data, there is much more analysis required of all the information gathered in order to determine the many factors that caused or contributed to this accident. 
Other information
Annex 13 safety investigations, and investigations by other organizations

The purpose of a safety investigation conducted under Annex 13 to the Convention on International Civil Aviation, governed by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), is to find all causal and contributing factors to an accident, without attributing blame or civil or criminal liability. This allows the focus to be placed on addressing safety deficiencies, and on preventing similar accidents from happening again. Experience has shown that a thorough safety-focused independent investigation offers the best chance of confirming what really happened and providing the answers that everyone is asking for, particularly for the families who lost so much.

The TSB is pleased that ICAO has accepted an invitation from the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran to provide expert advice in support of the safety investigation of the aircraft accident involving PS752.

Other organizations may also be conducting their own investigations into this accident, and for different purposes—including, for instance, judicial proceedings. To be clear, that kind of investigation is outside the TSB’s mandate, and Annex 13 expressly provides for the separation of these investigations.
Canada’s status under Annex 13 to the Convention on International Civil Aviation

In accordance with Annex 13, Iran is the State of Occurrence, and consequently the AAIB of Iran is leading the investigation into the accident. The role of other involved States is similarly prescribed by Annex 13.

Because so many Canadians died in this accident, Annex 13 entitles the TSB to appoint an Expert. In this role, we are entitled only to visit the accident site, have access to the relevant factual information approved for public release by the AAIB, monitor the progress of the investigation, and receive a copy of the final report (see the Backgrounder).

The AAIB has permitted the TSB to participate in the investigation to a greater extent than this by inviting TSB investigators not only to view the scene of the accident but also to examine the wreckage and participate in the download and analysis of the recorders, whenever and wherever that will occur.

The TSB continues to pursue increased involvement in the safety investigation by seeking status as an Accredited Representative (section 5.25 of Annex 13; see the Backgrounder). Accredited Representative status would entitle the TSB to participate in all aspects of the investigation, under the control of the AAIB’s investigator-in-charge. This would mean, among other things, that the TSB could suggest areas of enquiry and have full access to relevant data.

Adding Canada’s world-class expertise in independent air transportation safety investigation to this international effort would mean a lot to those affected by this tragedy, whether in Canada, in Iran, in Ukraine, and around the world. It could become a significant example of cooperation in the aviation industry on the world stage.
Limitations on information-sharing during the safety investigation

Regardless of TSB’s status in the investigation, we must emphasize that, under Annex 13 of the Convention on International Civil Aviation, the TSB is not allowed to release any information regarding the progress or results of the investigation without the permission of the AAIB of Iran.

The TSB must, and will, respect the limitations on its role in this foreign investigation.

We will therefore continue to make public only the information that we can validate and that we are allowed to release. Doing otherwise would undermine our relationships with our international partners.
Confidentiality

The TSB has not released the identities of its investigators in order to protect their and their families’ privacy, as well as to facilitate security arrangements while they were overseas. The TSB will continue to maintain the confidentiality of its investigation team until further notice.
Possible delays in other TSB investigations

Given the significant resources that the TSB is dedicating to this investigation, there have been questions about its effect on our other investigations. The TSB will carry out its mandate, responding to transportation occurrences as it always does, but we will have to adjust resources and timelines for some ongoing investigations.
Next update

At this time, there is no new factual information to report with respect to the TSB’s deployment to Tehran and Kyiv. We will provide further updates as and when we can. Specifically, we will notify the public of any change in our status under Annex 13, or when there is news regarding the deployment of our specialists to participate in the download and analysis of the recorders.  ...
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: milnews.ca on February 04, 2020, 21:17:10
Latest from the Global Affairs info-machine (https://www.canada.ca/en/global-affairs/news/2020/02/readout-call-of-international-coordination-and-response-group-for-the-victims-of-ps752.html) ....
Quote
The International Coordination and Response Group for the victims of Flight PS752 held its fifth meeting yesterday (3 Feb 2020) by teleconference.

The participants were representatives of:

    Canada
    Afghanistan
    Sweden
    Ukraine
    United Kingdom

All countries used the opportunity to update on their respective repatriation processes.

Importantly, they agreed on the need for continued pressure to secure closure, accountability, transparency and justice for the victims of flight PS752.

All countries are concerned with Iran’s failure to release the black boxes. Annex 13 to the Convention on Civil Aviation requires this take place without delay. Iran must release the black boxes immediately as a demonstration of continued willingness to have a full and transparent account of this event.

Minister Champagne shared with the group that he had made an official approach to the International Civil Aviation Organization on this matter with Transport Minister Marc Garneau last Friday.

Furthermore, all participants are committed to finding common ground on legal options for negotiations with Iran regarding its responsibility in this act in order to bring justice, including equal compensation to the families of the victims of flight PS752.
... as well as some MSM:
Title: Re: 8 Jan 2020: UKR Airliner shot down in Tehran
Post by: milnews.ca on February 16, 2020, 08:16:12
Latest from Global Affairs Canada (https://www.canada.ca/en/global-affairs/news/2020/02/international-coordination-and-response-group-for-the-victims-of-flight-ps752-advancing-on-the-framework-for-cooperation-with-iran.html) ....
Quote
Canada, Ukraine, Sweden, Afghanistan and the United Kingdom, the members of the International Coordination and Response Group for the victims of Flight PS752, held a second in-person meeting on the margins of the Munich Security Conference today to advance work on the framework of cooperation with Iran presented in London, United Kingdom, on January 16, 2020.

Today, the ministers of the coordination group will present a letter to Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, in which they reaffirm the need to provide closure, accountability, transparency and justice for the families and loved ones of the victims.

During a brief discussion with Minister Zarif, the ministers of the coordination group pressed Iran to continue to take necessary active steps toward the resolution of the many crucial questions of fact and of law raised by the downing of the flight. The group’s ministers urged a transparent and thorough safety investigation, in compliance with the standards and practices of the International Civil Aviation Organization. They also called for timely and equitable compensation consistent with international precedents. Lastly, the group’s ministers urged Iran to complete a thorough and transparent criminal investigation of the downing of PS752.

In addition, the Coordination Group also discussed the need to improve aviation security and air travel near or over conflict zones.