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The Mess => Canadian Politics => Topic started by: Larry Strong on November 04, 2010, 16:24:27

Title: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Larry Strong on November 04, 2010, 16:24:27
Posted with the usual caveats....


http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/TopStories/20101104/jim-prentice-leaving-office-101104/

According to the talking heads he is "unhappy"
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on September 27, 2012, 13:33:58
My own recent post (http://forums.army.ca/forums/index.php/topic,107637.msg1176171.html#msg1176171) in the Liberal Leadership thread got me to thinking about the next Conservative leader. The recent vote on a proposal to debate "when does life begin?" saw both Rona Ambrose and Jason Kenney voting to reopen the debate and, therefore, against the prime minister and the rest of cabinet. The speculation is that both are positioning themselves to capture the social conservatives when, inevitably, the leadership race opens (2017? 2018?).

Who else might be a leadership candidate?

My guesses:

(https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fupload.wikimedia.org%2Fwikipedia%2Fcommons%2Fthumb%2Ff%2Ff1%2FRonaAmbrose_EdmontonLRTOpening_25April2009.jpg%2F220px-RonaAmbrose_EdmontonLRTOpening_25April2009.jpg&hash=5065298f51d3f80a0adf96baa19812a6)   (https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fctya.org%2Fblog%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2FHon-Jason-Kenney.jpg&hash=e023b09ec3c379eac403203f7fef5a49)   (https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fprofile.ak.fbcdn.net%2Fhprofile-ak-prn1%2F50414_104817488512_7605915_n.jpg&hash=87148c3a78f40622deac82b4c317bafa)   (https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.economicclub.ca%2Fimages%2Fecot_speaker%2F76%2FJimPrenticeCrop.JPG&hash=1381bc887fe26222a574ff7b5218937f)
Rona Ambrose                                    Jason Kenney                                                                    Peter MacKay                                Jim Prentice
Alberta, DOB: 15 March 69                 Saskatchewan, DOB: 30 May 68                                        Nova Scotia, 27 Sep 65                Alberta, DOB: 20 Jul 56                                             
Career Politician                                 Career Politician                                                                 Lawyer before entering politics    Lawyer, Politician and Business Executive


I think Prentice, who, at 56 is the oldest of the four, has the best résumé but he is, I also think the least bilingual. Ambrose describes herself as a libertarian, Kenney really is an established social conservative just as MacKay is a social liberal.


Edit: spelling   :-[
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: dapaterson on September 27, 2012, 13:51:47
I wouldn't count out John Baird, either, another career politician.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: GAP on September 27, 2012, 14:06:34
Ambrose doesn't turn any cranks in leadership mode....the others are all viable, but low profile. McKay, I think, has been written off by most. Kenny and Baird are maybe's, but Prentiss has always had an aura of compentantcy the others don't have....He also walked away at the height of his time in, so he kinda retains that....
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: gcclarke on September 27, 2012, 15:00:14
I know Mr. Prentice, having volunteered with his campaigns both when he was gunning for the leadership of the old PC Party, and then again for his election campaign as an MP candidate in 2004. He's really a great guy, and I was saddened to see him decide to leave politics. I certainly would welcome a return.

Can't speak to his French proficiency though.

Edit: Other than him, I'd probably prefer Kenney (despite and not because of his social conservative ways), Baird, and Ambrose.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on September 27, 2012, 15:45:56
My own recent post (http://forums.army.ca/forums/index.php/topic,107637.msg1176171.html#msg1176171) in the Liberal Leadership thread got me to thinking about the next Conservative leader. The recent vote on a proposal to debate "when does life begin?" saw both Rona Ambrose and Jason Kenney voting to reopen the debate and, therefore, against the prime minister and the rest of cabinet. The speculation is that both are positioning themselves to capture the social conservatives when, inevitably, the leadership race opens (2017? 2018?).

Who else might be a leadership candidate?

My guesses:

(https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fupload.wikimedia.org%2Fwikipedia%2Fcommons%2Fthumb%2Ff%2Ff1%2FRonaAmbrose_EdmontonLRTOpening_25April2009.jpg%2F220px-RonaAmbrose_EdmontonLRTOpening_25April2009.jpg&hash=5065298f51d3f80a0adf96baa19812a6)   (https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fupload.wikimedia.org%2Fwikipedia%2Fcommons%2Fthumb%2F8%2F8b%2FJohn_Baird_-_Canadian_MP.jpg%2F220px-John_Baird_-_Canadian_MP.jpg&hash=30fa8e3ba55c5a25c367941eea2ec61f)   (https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fctya.org%2Fblog%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2FHon-Jason-Kenney.jpg&hash=e023b09ec3c379eac403203f7fef5a49)   (https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fprofile.ak.fbcdn.net%2Fhprofile-ak-prn1%2F50414_104817488512_7605915_n.jpg&hash=87148c3a78f40622deac82b4c317bafa)   (https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.economicclub.ca%2Fimages%2Fecot_speaker%2F76%2FJimPrenticeCrop.JPG&hash=1381bc887fe26222a574ff7b5218937f)
Rona Ambrose                                     John Baird                                            Jason Kenney                                                                       Peter MacKay                                   Jim Prentice
Alberta, DOB: 15 March 69                    Ontario, DOB: 26 May 69                        Saskatchewan, DOB: 30 May 68                                              Nova Scotia, 27 Sep 65                     Alberta, DOB: 20 Jul 56                                             
Career Politician                                   Career Politician                                    Career Politician                                                                    Lawyer before entering politics           Lawyer, Politician and Business Executive


I think Prentice, who, at 56 is the oldest of the four, has the best résumé but he is, I also think the least bilingual. Ambrose describes herself as a libertarian, Kenney really is an established social conservative just as MacKay is a social liberal.


Edited to add John Baird. Baird is a social liberal, like MacKay.

My, personal preferences:

First choice: Jim Prentice
Second:       John Baird
Third:           any of Rona Ambrose, Jason Kenney or Peter MacKay


If it is two Quebec native sons (Mulcair and either Garneau or Trudeau) then I suspect that Prentice's less than perfect French will not do him too much harm. He is ten years older than his colleagues, two years younger than Mulcair, but he has much more gravitas. I don't think he has much baggage on the social issues.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Larry Strong on September 27, 2012, 21:53:05
I wonder if there would be any resistance to another leader from "Alberta"......
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: PrairieThunder on September 27, 2012, 22:01:31
Jason Kenney is an outstanding politician in my opinion. I'd vote for him as CPC Leader.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on September 27, 2012, 23:32:33
I wonder if there would be any resistance to another leader from "Alberta"......


I've often discussed the Old Canada/New Canada theory - it's not mine but I can't remember where I first read it - which says that power is shifting from Old Canada, East of the Ottawa River, to New Canada which is  BC <=> ON. Thus it will be natural for the Conservatives to have a New Canada leader, with ON and AB being the places in which they elect the most people.


Edit: 2 X typos
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on October 03, 2012, 08:16:07
This, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the National Post, is an interesting analysis of (Conservative) political leadership. I'm not certain I believe it, not completely, anyway, and the parts that I do believe are applicable, I think, to all political movements throughout the Western world:

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/10/02/john-ivison-conservative-backbench-has-lost-its-fear-of-stephen-harper/
Quote
Conservative backbench has lost its fear of Stephen Harper

John Ivison

Oct 2, 2012

Is there a common thread running between Rob Anders’ wild-eyed musings about how Tom Mulcair hastened Jack Layton’s death and last week’s abortion vote, in which a majority of Conservative MPs voted for a motion their leader had urged them to oppose?

I’d argue yes – the trained seals on the backbench are biting back and we are likely to see more unsanctioned behaviour in future, as MPs relish their new-found freedom.

So what the Sam Hill is going on with the party that brought you Canada’s first Orwellian government?

Groupthink is still alive and doing what it’s told, not least earlier this month, when 11 MPs and a senator used exactly the same lines at the same time, albeit in different places, while highlighting the government’s War of 1812 initiative.

But the narrative of Stephen Harper as Big Brother, so beloved of certain commentators, is becoming increasingly anachronous.

Simply put, I think MPs on the government side of the House who have been around since 2004, 2006 or 2008 are thinking about their legacy and resolving that always voting at their party’s call, and never thinking for themselves at all, is not how they want to be remembered.

There are no whispers of regicide in the Conservative caucus. Mr. Harper will remain Prime Minister until he or the voters decide otherwise. He remains respected for leading the party into majority government but he is not loved and, crucially, he is no longer feared. From Mr. Anders’ unique analysis to the willingness of a majority of the Prime Minister’s caucus to defy his wishes, it seems Mr. Harper’s power to chill his backbench has waned.

There is a widespread feeling on the backbenches that they have been taken for granted. A number say they are fed up being told what to do by “kids in short pants,” young enough to receive their briefing notes in phonics.

There have been rumblings from a number of Conservative senators, upset at being treated as a rubber-stamp by the Prime Minister’s Office, that they will start to send poorly thought out legislation back to the House.

Now it sounds like a group of Conservative back-benchers are talking about flexing their own muscles by voting against government legislation, if they don’t approve of it. “We haven’t decided on any particular bill yet,” said one MP.

The abortion vote was not, perhaps, a real manifestation of the disquiet on the backbenches. In fact, it proved to be a safety valve that allowed MPs to blow off some steam. The real danger to the Prime Minister would have been to whip the vote, storing up trouble for the future.

We’re not even talking here of the regular grumbling endemic to back-benches everywhere. A number of Conservatives are upset about the new rules for MPs that will require parliamentarians to contribute 50% of their pension in the future. But this kind of blatant self-interest is not what appears to be motivating the outbreak of independent thinking on the back-bench.

Rather, there is a sense that the Prime Minister and the select band of courtiers around him have gone too far in concentrating power in the PMO.

A micro-management strategy, designed in the early days to control the role of the individual MP and Cabinet minister in the interests of presenting a co-ordinated message, is deemed to have had its day. Cabinet ministers, who have become used to receiving mandate letters that detail priorities, with no leeway for ministers to promote projects they may feel are deserving, are typical of the short leash on which all Conservative MPs have been kept.

A number of MPs I spoke to argue they should now be trusted to act more independently, even if they use that freedom to voice whatever offensive and unlikely conspiracy theory comes into their heads.

After seven years of the opposition and their cheerleaders frothing at Mr. Harper’s “totalitarian rule,” it’s possible that the democratic deficit may ultimately be addressed by a most unlikely source – the bobbleheads on the government’s own backbench.

National Post


Some points of departure:

1. Prime Minister Harper's "Orwellian" and centralized style of government is nothing new in Canada ~ Trudeau and his Clerk of the Privy Council, Michael Pitfield, were far, far more "Orwellian" and power was more, even, in my opinion, dangerously concentrated at the centre;

     (The Clerk should be non partisan and should act as a policy "check" on the PM's political instincts, Pitfield was inside the PMO, in fact the PCO and PMO were, nearly, indistinguishable.
     It was a dangerous time for our Westminster system, we got very close to a US style "spoils" system without the Constitutional framework to check and balance it.)


2. Backbenchers have, traditionally, been "nobodies" when they are off the Hill, and backbench revolts are regular features of all Westminster style governments, in Australia, Britain and here, in Canada; and

3. My, personal, sense is that Harper is less "feared" than he is simply "remote." I think that Stephen Harper is the least "liked" PM since Mackenzie King ~ even men that many despise were noted for being good at managing their own team; not so Stephen Harper: he appears indifferent to the personal wants and needs of his team.

But: it, caucus leadership, is an issue and will be after the 2015 election when the Conservative leadership/succession can be discussed openly.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Remius on October 03, 2012, 12:37:14
I think the discontent may stem more from PM Stephen Harper's control of who can say what, when and where with scripted talking points and party lines.  Only a select few are allowed to openly express themselves without being.  This may be a hold over when this was necessary as a minority government.

The problem is that the Conservative party has several people who have made scary and frankly dumb comments and have been more or less muzzled for their, and the party's, own good.  Anders, Gallant, Polievre etc are just a few examples of this. 

The conservatives are trying to appeal to Canadians by moving towards (staking a claim is a better description) the social center, which likely does not appeal to the old reform party originals that want to talk about things like abortion, gay rights etc, but not the way Stephen Harper wants to. In the end I think it might likely be a smaller handful making more noise than its actual size and making it sound like there is more discontent than there really is.

However after the next election, it will be interesting to see how vocal, if not divisive these backbenchers might become.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Haletown on October 03, 2012, 12:42:15
Who knew  Ivison could write comedy :)

Have to add James Moore to the list.

http://www.parl.gc.ca/MembersOfParliament/ProfileMP.aspx?Key=170424&Language=E

I don't think Ambrose has a chance.

Kenney has worked very hard, has strong base and knows how to do politics.

Baird has a lot of the same strengths as Kenney plus he has the gay cred.

It will be an interesting race . . .  when it happens.

Will Harper go one more round?    Will the party transition power without spilling blood or will they go the way of the LPC?


Much entertainment to be had for sure.






Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on October 03, 2012, 17:26:58
Major edit because my Alzheimer's clicked in and I forgot John Baird!  :-[

Let me redo the list:

(https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.parl.gc.ca%2FMembersOfParliament%2FImages%2FOfficialMPPhotos%2F41%2FAmbroseRona_CPC.jpg&hash=7012575a64b325b07fb6d484a4578a4e)     (https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.parl.gc.ca%2FMembersOfParliament%2FImages%2FOfficialMPPhotos%2F41%2FBairdJohn_CPC.jpg&hash=71f1721bf7fff565c06ffe4412382cdf)     (https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.parl.gc.ca%2FMembersOfParliament%2FImages%2FOfficialMPPhotos%2F41%2FKenneyJason_CPC.jpg&hash=839dd3c3ffd352e497fc1900655b0da6)     (https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.parl.gc.ca%2FMembersOfParliament%2FImages%2FOfficialMPPhotos%2F41%2FMooreJames_CPC.jpg&hash=e78b5574615f19562d46dafa4e3520e1)     (https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.parl.gc.ca%2FMembersOfParliament%2FImages%2FOfficialMPPhotos%2F41%2FMacKayPeterGordon_CPC.jpg&hash=39b6aa73055e7e4d48ec27e1d9c4a017)     (https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.pc.gc.ca%2Fimages%2FJimPrentice.jpg&hash=e987eea02a0c316bf4dd924ec96017b9)
Rona Ambrose                  John Baird                         Jason Kenney                  James Moore                     Peter MacKay                   Jim Prentice
Alberta, Age: 43               Ontario, Age: 43               Saskatchewan, Age: 44   BC, Age: 36                       Nova Scotia, Age: 47       Alberta, Age: 56
Libertarian                        Moderate                         Social Conservative          Libertarian                        Moderate                         Moderate

All lily white, no Francophones, one woman, all under 60, one under 40.

I remain convinced that Prentice is the best candidate ~ but I tend to overrate gravitas and underate the value of social conservatism. I agree with others that Ambrose is the least likely to lead the party. I also think that, on balance, MacKay loses to Prentice and Ambrose loses to Moore, so my choices are:

First:                    Jim Prentice
Tied for Second:  John Baird or Jason Kenney
Fourth:                James Moore
Tied for Fifth:       Rona Ambrose or Peter MacKay
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: milnews.ca on October 03, 2012, 17:46:29
Let me redo the list:

(https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.parl.gc.ca%2FMembersOfParliament%2FImages%2FOfficialMPPhotos%2F41%2FAmbroseRona_CPC.jpg&hash=7012575a64b325b07fb6d484a4578a4e)     (https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.parl.gc.ca%2FMembersOfParliament%2FImages%2FOfficialMPPhotos%2F41%2FKenneyJason_CPC.jpg&hash=839dd3c3ffd352e497fc1900655b0da6)     (https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.parl.gc.ca%2FMembersOfParliament%2FImages%2FOfficialMPPhotos%2F41%2FMooreJames_CPC.jpg&hash=e78b5574615f19562d46dafa4e3520e1)     (https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.parl.gc.ca%2FMembersOfParliament%2FImages%2FOfficialMPPhotos%2F41%2FMacKayPeterGordon_CPC.jpg&hash=39b6aa73055e7e4d48ec27e1d9c4a017)     (https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.pc.gc.ca%2Fimages%2FJimPrentice.jpg&hash=e987eea02a0c316bf4dd924ec96017b9)
Rona Ambrose                  Jason Kenney                  James Moore                     Peter MacKay                   Jim Prentice
Alberta, Age: 43               Saskatchewan, Age: 44   BC, Age: 36                       Nova Scotia, Age: 47       Alberta, Age: 56
Libertarian                       Social Conservative          Libertarian                        Moderate                         Moderate

All lily white, no Francophones, one woman, all under 60, one under 40.

I remain convinced that Prentice is the best candidate ~ but I tend to overrate gravitas and underate the value of social conservatism. I agree with others that Ambrose is the least likely to lead the party. I also think that, on balance, MacKay loses to Prentice and Ambrose loses to Moore, so my choices are:

First:                   Jim Prentice
Tied for Second:  Jason Kenney or James Moore
Tied for Fourth:   Rona Ambrose or Peter MacKay
Curious, why no more John Baird on this round?
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Brihard on October 03, 2012, 18:00:46
I could support Prentice.  He also will have been able to say that he's been absent from federal politics during a few very contentious years and so can't really be tarred with anything. He also has serious credibility in the 'real world' in part due to his most recent work with CIBC.

Besides that, a fairly moderate Conservative candidate would also stand the best chance of pulling in voters from the Centre who won't vote NDP and won't want to vote for Justin Trudeau to run the country.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: bridges on October 03, 2012, 18:01:19
Career politician, career politician, career politician, lawyer, lawyer.   ....Sigh....
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on October 03, 2012, 18:03:18
Curious, why no more John Baird on this round?


Because I'm old and stupid!  :-[   :'(    ???
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on October 03, 2012, 18:05:41
Career politician, career politician, career politician, lawyer, lawyer.   ....Sigh....


In this day and age there's not much else. Justin Trudeau took a little side trip into teaching, but not for long.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: milnews.ca on October 03, 2012, 18:11:37
Because I'm old and stupid!  :-[   :'(    ???
Not even close!  :nod:

Have to agree with the Prentice/gravitas assessment, but I don't know how good his chances have to be to drag him back into the fray from this gig with CIBC (https://www.cibc.com/ca/inside-cibc/executive-teams/prentice.html).
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on December 07, 2012, 13:46:32
From the F-35 thread, reagrding questions in the House for Peter MacKay:

kinda makes me wonder if PM Harper is allowing a potential rival to rotate on the spit a bit here to get some visible political scars he can point to if his leadership is challenged.

Mackay looks bad.

Ambrose looks solid and competent  . . .   future Party leader when Harper is ready to go for his walk in the snow?


MacKay has, I think, a pretty strong and loyal following in the CPC. He is admired for bringing the PCs into the new party with few problems.

Rona Ambrose is a strong candidate but she may face a stiff challenge from the big, seat rich Ontario caucus. Jim Prentice can claim Ontario roots and can also suggest that he has transplanted himself back there. But my list is still this (http://forums.army.ca/forums/index.php/topic,107652.msg1177746.html#msg1177746):

First:                    Jim Prentice
Tied for Second:  John Baird or Jason Kenney
Fourth:                James Moore
Tied for Fifth:       Rona Ambrose or Peter MacKay

Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Hatchet Man on December 07, 2012, 14:13:01
Career politician, career politician, career politician, lawyer, lawyer.   ....Sigh....

Well the the last liberal leader wasn't a career politician or lawyer, and look how well that turned out for him and his party.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Journeyman on December 07, 2012, 16:20:49
Peter McKay plays rugby; he's got my vote.   :)
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on April 09, 2013, 08:27:48
Lawrence Martin, a commentator with whom I routinely disagree, makes an insightful contribution in this article which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/commentary/stay-or-go-harpers-party-has-to-know/article10869396/
Quote
Stay or go? Harper’s party has to know

LAWRENCE MARTIN
Special to The Globe and Mail

Published Tuesday, Apr. 09 2013

If Stephen Harper is to serve his party well, he has a critical decision to make within a few months. He has to let it be known whether he will lead the Conservatives into another election.

If he delays that decision until next year, he will leave his successor – factoring in the many months it takes for a leadership race – up against the wall. The successor will have no time to establish a presence or record before going into the 2015 election campaign.

Mr. Harper has seen what happens when other leaders delay the decision. Brian Mulroney waited until the last year of his second mandate to turn the crown over to Kim Campbell. She had to call an election right away. She was unprepared and got trounced. Pierre Trudeau waited until his fourth mandate’s last year before calling a leadership convention in 1984, leaving John Turner little time – though he could have waited a bit longer – to call an election. He, too, was crushed.

The problem for Mr. Harper is that he needs more than a few months to make a well-informed judgment on whether he has a good chance of winning again. The assumption is that he wants another term. He loves power, he has had a good run and he wants to extend that run.

But the arrival of Justin Trudeau as Liberal leader has changed the political dynamic. If the opinion polls are to be believed – a big if – the Liberals are a big player again – meaning there are new risks in Mr. Harper’s trying to go for another win.

The Trudeau name is his worst nightmare. Mr. Harper’s animosity toward the Liberalism of Pierre Trudeau was what ignited and drove his political ambition. Nothing would plague him more than having a Trudeau succeed him and begin turning back his conservative advances.

Justin Trudeau is likely to enjoy a honeymoon, as most new leaders do, for several months after his coronation this weekend. Even by the end of the year, it might still be too early to know whether or not Sir Galahad’s bubble will burst.

By that time, potential successors to Mr. Harper will be becoming restless. There’s John Baird and Jason Kenney who would represent the party’s right flank. And there’s James Moore and former cabinet minister Jim Prentice who could represent the moderate side. But would any of them have a better chance of winning than Mr. Harper? Not likely.

The Prime Minister will bear that in mind. At the same time, he has the comfort of knowing that, should he step down, he will do so as one of the great Conservative success stories, having led the party from nowhere when he took over the Canadian Alliance in 2002, through the subsequent merger with the Progressive Conservatives and then three election victories.

If he decides to stay, he must not only face the Trudeau phenomenon but also the problem – as an Ipsos Reid poll shows – that people are getting tired of him and his secretive, closed style of governance. Some tried to defend him for his latest muzzling effort, one that targeted his own MPs. They failed to see beyond the abortion issue to the broader context, the gagging here being only one of dozens of examples of this kind of conduct.

Some leaders hesitate to reveal their departure dates, using the rationale that it leaves them as lame ducks. But American presidents are lame ducks for their entire second term, and still get much done. Jean Chrétien got more done after announcing in 2002 that he was stepping down than he did in the earlier years.

Conservative Party transitions have not been handled well. Besides the Mulroney-Campbell example, there was the wrenching internal party wars that followed John Diefenbaker’s election loss in 1965 and Joe Clark’s 1980 election defeat.

Mr. Harper can avoid the pitfalls of the past by making his decision to stay or go at a time his party would best benefit to know.


The progressives, a group within which Lawrence Martin is numbered, are putting a HUGE load of faith and hope on M. Trudeau's shoulders.

But, Mr. Martin is right: Prime Minister Harper must, eventually, step down and he needs to manage his departure better than most of his predecessors (in all parties).

My sense remains that the 2015 election is still Mr. Harper's to lose ~ and he can manage to do that. But 2019 is a different story. By then I am sure that Harper government will be stale and bereft of good ideas, sustaining a Conservative government will require new, fresh leader with new, fresh ideas. Although I would favour Mr. Prentice for 2015 I suspect that by 2019 he will be seen as "over the hill" and one of the younger contenders will be more likely to win the leadership and, potentially, the country.

Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: ARMY_101 on April 09, 2013, 09:26:31
My sense remains that the 2015 election is still Mr. Harper's to lose ~ and he can manage to do that. But 2019 is a different story. By then I am sure that Harper government will be stale and bereft of good ideas, sustaining a Conservative government will require new, fresh leader with new, fresh ideas. Although I would favour Mr. Prentice for 2015 I suspect that by 2019 he will be seen as "over the hill" and one of the younger contenders will be more likely to win the leadership and, potentially, the country.

Harper will stay the course for 2015 and beyond.  If he leaves at the peak after 10 years in office (i.e. 2016ish), balancing the budget, and with many positive achievements under his decade in office, he'll be leaving as one of Canada's greatest prime ministers.

Then again, Harper will (only) be 60 in 2019, and could very well remain leader if enough fresh ideas continue to be brought up and be implemented. (The party's policy declaration is far from fulfilled.)

As for my insights into the next leader, as someone involved in the party:

1. Jason Kenney (con: single male)

2. Peter MacKay (con: new son)

3. Tony Clement (con: he's Tony Clement)

4. Rona Ambrose (pro: she's female and is seen as the government spending savior when it comes to Public Works and the F35 project)

As someone who knows him and who has spoken to him, I don't see John Baird wanting or lusting for the PM job.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: S.M.A. on April 29, 2013, 11:51:31

1. Jason Kenney (con: single male)

2. Peter MacKay (con: new son)

  (https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.parl.gc.ca%2FMembersOfParliament%2FImages%2FOfficialMPPhotos%2F41%2FKenneyJason_CPC.jpg&hash=839dd3c3ffd352e497fc1900655b0da6)

There was a recent Maclean's article (http://www2.macleans.ca/2013/02/02/welcome-to-my-world/) about Kenney's role as the immigration minister, that hinted that Kenney may just be the next pick for PM, given his role in reaching out to immigrant communities and getting them to vote Conservative. The said article also stated that his outreach work was behind the Tories winning around seven majority immigrant ridings (some of which were traditional Liberal strongholds) in the past Federal election, if I can recall correctly.  I doubt being single or unmarried is a "con" that would prevent him from being a PM; there are other heads of government who are unmarried.


Maclean's excerpt:

Quote
Once charmed, the document added, ethnic communities could stay loyal for a very long time. Ten “very ethnic” ridings—where immigrants represent more than 20 per cent of the population—were targeted in pre-election Conservative advertising: four in Ontario, four in B.C., one in Quebec and one in Manitoba. On election day, May 2, the Conservative party won seven of them.



The aforementioned article even began with anecdote of how Jason Kenney abruptly left a rally for the Sikh since he didn't want to be seen as endorsing a group that favoured that the Sikhs carve out their own "Khalistan" homeland in India. This is one instance which shows he exercises good judgement, especially with regard to public perception.


Maclean's excerpt:
Quote

Jason Kenney scans the dense crowd of roughly 20,000 Sikh Canadians in traditional dress and multicoloured turbans here to mark Vaisakhi—the annual celebration commemorating the foundation of this community originally from India’s northeast. Sitting cross-legged on the thin grey carpeting covering the enormous stage, the minister is inwardly cringing.

He doesn’t like what he sees. In front of him, a dozen yellow and blue Khalistan flags are splitting the crowd near the podium, held by men fighting the hot early May sun in T-shirts. The man at the mic, speaking Punjabi, suddenly speeds up and radicalizes his tone. He speaks of genocide, of violent clashes and of the independence of Khalistan—a country that a faction of Sikh nationalists would like to carve from India. It’s too much. Kenney, who’s picked up some Punjabi since becoming minister of citizenship, immigration and multiculturalism in 2008, stands mid-sentence, crosses the room and exits as three baffled Conservative MPs look on, unsure whether or not they should follow.

At the bottom of the steps, Kenney puts his shoes back on and raises his hand as if to rip off the orange bandana that all visitors wear inside Rexdale’s Sikh Spiritual Centre. He takes a deep breath, and restrains himself. A Sikh organizer approaches, looking contrite. “You are trying to exploit my presence here,” Kenney shouts, his stare fixed on the man in a white turban. “This is not a civilized way to behave. I warned you, and you did it anyway. I am aware that you would like to entertain the Prime Minister next year. You can forget it. He won’t be coming.” The minister makes his way to the exit, the Sikh organizer fast on his heels, apologizing profusely.He finally pulls off his bandana and explains that Sikh nationalists are now waging their war in Canada. They hope to convince the roughly 450,000 Canadians of Sikh origin, the majority of whom live in the suburbs of Toronto and Vancouver, to put pressure on their families still in India, but also on the Canadian government, to support their demands. They want Ottawa to recognize a genocide in which Sikhs were victims, in 1984 in India.

(...)

“It was an extremist speech,” he says. “I had to leave the room, otherwise the community would think I endorse such a campaign. Certain groups have sometimes tried to wield my prominence to advance their cause. I have to be vigilant at all times. They shouldn’t be encouraged to reproduce, in Canada, the tensions of their homelands.” It’s a message he reiterates to new immigrants from China and Tibet, Greece and Turkey, Israel and Iran.


----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Moving on, here's another article which explores other rising Tories who may be headed for the cabinet...

National Post link (http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2013/04/28/young-tories-hoping-for-cabinet-post-mere-pawns-in-stephen-harpers-game/)

Quote

John Ivison: Ambitious young Tories hoping for Cabinet posts are mere pawns in Harper’s game

Watching Michelle Rempel in the House of Commons Thursday, it was obvious why so many people think she’s a lock for a job in Cabinet when Stephen Harper shuffles his deck this summer.

The 32-year-old from Calgary is pretty — can we still say that? — and shrewd. She was taking part in a debate on climate change and revealed that as a 10-year-old “science geek,” she read about Earth Day and started worrying about climate change.

She had been preceded by Michael Chong, the 41-year-old from Fergus, Ont., who is less pretty but telegenic in his own way and an excellent debater. He gave a vigorous defence of the government’s environment policy, such that a jury would be left with a reasonable doubt about the opposition charge of negligence on the file.

The received wisdom in Ottawa — and therefore the least likely outcome — is that Mr. Harper will refresh his Cabinet this summer by promoting the best and brightest of his parliamentary secretaries into key portfolios.


While Mr. Chong is clearly able, he resigned from Cabinet in 2006 because he did not support a government motion recognizing Québec as a nation within Canada. Mr. Harper rarely forgives or forgets, so the MP for Halton Hills may have to be patient before he is rehabilitated.

But the consensus is that Ms. Rempel, and her fellow parliamentary secretaries Chris Alexander, Candice Bergen, Shelley Glover and Pierre Poilievre are Cabinet bound.

Hmm. All five have done their time in the trenches and been good soldiers, often accepting politically dangerous assignments with enthusiasm.

But they are already the friendly public face of the government, appearing nightly on political talk-shows and acting as the front-line of defence when the Conservatives are taking fire.
When the accusations fly that the Tories are a bunch of old, white guys who are happy to befoul the environment in their quest for profit, they wheel out Ms. Rempel, not the 70-year-old minister, Peter Kent.

When Vic Toews, the Public Safety Minister, has said something perceived as particularly outrageous, they send out Ms. Bergen to explain what he really meant.


Is Mr. Harper really going to put either into some invisible portfolio such as Minister of State for Seniors? He could drop them into a senior portfolio but we have seen that movie before, when he over-promoted Rona Ambrose in 2006. It didn’t end well.

In any case, there is a natural progression in politics and parachuting someone into a top job would create a brigade of malcontents from those passed over.

It seems that to be young, telegenic and quick on your feet in the Harper government is as much a curse as a career-enhancer.

That’s not to say there will not be promotions from the ranks of parliamentary secretaries. But, this being Canada, merit is a tertiary consideration behind gender and geography. Good candidates for promotion like Mike Lake, James Rajotte and Rick Dykstra are likely to find themselves falling short on both counts.

Only one in four Cabinet ministers is female, so there is a drive to fill any vacancies with women.

Then there is the delicate provincial balance. For that reason, Winnipeg MP Ms. Glover is likely to ascend, since it seems certain that Mr. Toews will retire.

Gordon O’Connor, the chief whip, is 74-years-old this year and may also step down, which would open a Cabinet position from the national capital region. Mr. Poilievre’s luck would be in, were that the case.

Peter Penashue’s apparently doomed bid to get re-elected in Labrador means Mr. Harper is going to have to find another minister in Atlantic Canada. New Brunswick MPs Rob Moore and John Williamson would be ready and able to step up, even if the latter has annoyed his former boss by recently arguing for more independence for backbench MPs.

And then there is the linchpin of the whole shuffle — Jim Flaherty.

The Finance Minister says he knows what is going on — he is going on. But suggestions that he will call it quits this summer continue to abound.
If he does, candidates for his job would include Tony Clement, the Treasury Board president, Ted Menzies, currently Minister of State for Finance, and John Baird, the Foreign Minister (who is quite happy where he is, thank you very much).

Of the other heavy hitters in Cabinet, Jason Kenney is the strongest performer in Cabinet and has done a good job at Immigration. But that may work against him as Justin Trudeau seeks to usurp the Conservatives in the suburbs. In any case, having the Prime Minister and Finance Minister from the same city would likely cause palpitations east of the prairies.

James Moore, has turned Canadian Heritage, from a “shield” department, where the Tories were always playing defence, into a “sword.” He has also performed well in Question Period when asked to pinch-hit for the Prime Minister. For the record, he is 36 and his attractiveness is in the eye of the beholder.

Lisa Raitt is another who is widely judged to have performed well in her Labour portfolio. She is overdue a move — something she would undoubtedly welcome, since, as has one smartass noted, three years in labour is enough for any woman.

The job for the Prime Minister, therefore, is quite simple: placate the revolting backbenchers through promotions (or by bringing in a less confrontational House Leader and chief whip); usher in a younger Cabinet, without removing all the stars who stem the tide of opposition criticism on a daily basis; fill in the major departures with replacements of proven ability; and, last but not least, shake up departments that need a new vision — Fisheries, Defence and Industry spring to mind.

Fortunately for him, the Prime Minister understands that there are no true friends in politics and so doesn’t try to cultivate any. The results have been clinical but, generally, effective.

The young and the restless in the government caucus may have to seek solace in the fact that they are mere pawns in this particular game of thrones.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: ARMY_101 on April 29, 2013, 12:20:07
I doubt being single or unmarried is a "con" that would prevent him from being a PM; there are other heads of government who are unmarried.

Very few (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spouse_of_the_Prime_Minister_of_Canada) Prime Ministers of Canada and no President of the United States  (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_First_Ladies_of_the_United_States) has ever held office while not being married. Most PMs and Presidents have been married, or at least widowed, while they held office.

The reason, to me at least, is simple: getting married and having children is the purpose humans are on this Earth.  What Canadian would view a Prime Minister as 'normal' when he has no wife and no children?  Kenney is a tireless worker no doubt, but that strong work ethic may work against him should he intend to seek the leadership: what does it say about a man who prioritizes his work above getting married and starting a family?

Even sterile women are publicly called out and humiliated when seeking top office. (http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2012/03/31/pc-staffer-resigns-danielle-smith-wildrose-tweet_n_1393807.html) Why? Because they're not seen as normal.

(One purpose of) government is to allow families to grow and prosper - who wants a single guy making policies when he has no real experience in dealing with the demands of a family?
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Monsoon on April 29, 2013, 13:40:14
Very few (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spouse_of_the_Prime_Minister_of_Canada) Prime Ministers of Canada and no President of the United States  (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_First_Ladies_of_the_United_States) has ever held office while not being married. Most PMs and Presidents have been married, or at least widowed, while they held office.
Unmarried Prime Ministers governed Canada for almost third of the last century. I would suggest that in Canada, at least, the image problems you highlighted exist more in theory than in fact.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Bass ackwards on April 29, 2013, 13:41:37
Very few (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spouse_of_the_Prime_Minister_of_Canada) Prime Ministers of Canada and no President of the United States  (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_First_Ladies_of_the_United_States) has ever held office while not being married. Most PMs and Presidents have been married, or at least widowed, while they held office.

The reason, to me at least, is simple: getting married and having children is the purpose humans are on this Earth.  What Canadian would view a Prime Minister as 'normal' when he has no wife and no children?  Kenney is a tireless worker no doubt, but that strong work ethic may work against him should he intend to seek the leadership: what does it say about a man who prioritizes his work above getting married and starting a family?

Even sterile women are publicly called out and humiliated when seeking top office. (http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2012/03/31/pc-staffer-resigns-danielle-smith-wildrose-tweet_n_1393807.html) Why? Because they're not seen as normal.

(One purpose of) government is to allow families to grow and prosper - who wants a single guy making policies when he has no real experience in dealing with the demands of a family?

101, do you think that would apply as much today after a half century or so of social engineering has made the traditional family almost...passe'?
It seems to me that being a "first (insert your new and improved demographic of choice here)" is all the rage these days.
And the major voting bloc that ordinarily would lean towards the stable, traditional family man (or woman); the older generation - is now filling up with people who grew up in the sixties and seventies and who started all this crap.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: ARMY_101 on April 29, 2013, 13:50:22
Unmarried Prime Ministers governed Canada for almost third of the last century. I would suggest that in Canada, at least, the image problems you highlighted exist more in theory than in fact.

Besides Pierre Trudeau, the unmarried PMs were in the 1920s-1940s (King and Bennett). I would suggest during those times the Canadian public was more concerned with crisis and war than whether their PM had the right values.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: ARMY_101 on April 29, 2013, 13:55:32
101, do you think that would apply as much today after a half century or so of social engineering has made the traditional family almost...passe'?
It seems to me that being a "first (insert your new and improved demographic of choice here)" is all the rage these days.
And the major voting bloc that ordinarily would lean towards the stable, traditional family man (or woman); the older generation - is now filling up with people who grew up in the sixties and seventies and who started all this crap.

The major voting bloc IS the people who grew up in the 1960s and 70s. The highest turnout rates are seen in men between the ages of 55 and 74. This is also, not coincidentally, the bloc most likely to vote conservative: http://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=rec/part/estim/41ge&document=report41&lang=e.

Besides that, the Canadian public doesn't elect the Conservative leader,  the Conservative Party of Canada does.  Do you think the party standing for family values and marriage would elect a leader who has neither?
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: dapaterson on April 29, 2013, 14:10:17
Besides that, the Canadian public doesn't elect the Conservative leader,  the Conservative Party of Canada does.  Do you think the party standing for family values and marriage would elect a leader who has neither?

They would elect a single, bald, bearded, one-legged, one-eyed pervert in a thong if they thought he would get elected.  As would any party - ideological purity is for the Ed Broadbent NDP; political parties are all about power.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Bass ackwards on April 29, 2013, 14:30:20
The major voting bloc IS the people who grew up in the 1960s and 70s. The highest turnout rates are seen in men between the ages of 55 and 74. This is also, not coincidentally, the bloc most likely to vote conservative: http://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=rec/part/estim/41ge&document=report41&lang=e.

Besides that, the Canadian public doesn't elect the Conservative leader,  the Conservative Party of Canada does.  Do you think the party standing for family values and marriage would elect a leader who has neither?

That's what I was getting with regards to the largest voting bloc. It is my belief (and I hope I'm wrong) that we will see more and more of a trend towards the left in older voters as time progresses.

You have a good point about the CPC not electing a single or childless man or woman although I would argue that the absence of a family is by no means proof of the absence of conservative values.
I want my leader to have those values but I also want them to be capable and most of all -I want them to be someone that a majority of Canadians will be happy to see in office.
Ozzie Nelson's no good to me as the head of the CPC if his job consists solely of badgering Prime Minister Trudeau (or Mulcair or -shudder- May) from the opposition bench.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Bass ackwards on April 29, 2013, 14:32:28
They would elect a single, bald, bearded, one-legged, one-eyed pervert in a thong if they thought he would get elected. 

Great! When do I start?  ;)
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Monsoon on April 29, 2013, 21:22:28
Besides Pierre Trudeau, the unmarried PMs were in the 1920s-1940s (King and Bennett). I would suggest during those times the Canadian public was more concerned with crisis and war than whether their PM had the right values.
To believe that, I would have to accept that the voters of the 1920s (King's first election) were primarily concerned with "crisis and war" (which?), and that Pierre Trudeau was for some reason unique enough for the normal rules you assert to not matter. That's an awful lot of hand-waving.

And then there's Bowell (1894-1896)... I'm not saying that being single couldn't be used against a candidate for PM, I'm just saying that in Canada there's a pretty long history of that line of attack not succeeding.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: cupper on April 29, 2013, 23:52:27
Very few (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spouse_of_the_Prime_Minister_of_Canada) Prime Ministers of Canada and no President of the United States  (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_First_Ladies_of_the_United_States) has ever held office while not being married. Most PMs and Presidents have been married, or at least widowed, while they held office.

Go back and recheck your reference. James Buchanan was a bachelor during his presidency.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: S.M.A. on June 27, 2013, 23:44:15
Is this Andy Radia just pulling things out of his a** with his usual commentary or does he have a point this time? I disagree with Radia's assessment that Mackay should leave.

link (http://ca.news.yahoo.com/blogs/canada-politics/advice-defence-minister-peter-mackay-retire-politics-161030224.html)

Quote
No more jets or tanks: it’s time for Defence Minister Peter MacKay to retire from politics
By Andy Radia

It's time for Peter MacKay to call it quits.

On Wednesday, Postmedia News became the latest media outlet to speculate that maybe, potentially, perhaps the Defence Minister would be retiring from politics in the near future.

After all, they said, both MacKay's long-time chief of staff and communications director recently quit, he's had some problems with his portfolio and he's a new papa.

Will MacKay actually leave? That remains to be seen.

Should he? Absolutely yes!

MacKay was once seen as a rising star in Ottawa — some even predicted that he would, one day, replace Stephen Harper as the leader of the Conservative Party.

But, over the past couple of years, MacKay's stock has dropped substantially after a series of gaffes and blunders as defence minister.

He's been forced to defend himself over a 10 minute trip on a search-and-rescue helicopter in July 2010. The helicopter picked up MacKay from his personal fishing trip in central Newfoundland at a cost to taxpayers of $32,000.

In 2011 , reports surfaced that MacKay incurred pricey hotel tabs during conference stays in Europe, which saw one bill reach $1,452 per night.

He's also been ridiculed for the F-35 boondoggle and other military procurement nightmares.

Earlier this week, the Canadian Press reported that "civilian staff numbers at National Defence grew by almost 30 per cent over six years, despite budget cuts and warnings the military has too much 'tail and not enough teeth.'"

And, on Thursday, MacKay was involved in a photo-op to 'deliver' Canada's first new CH-147F Chinook transport helicopter. That is good news but the process was marred with controversy. The NDP put out a statement claiming the helicopters are five years late and millions over budget while CBC reminds us that, in 2010, Auditor General Sheila Fraser complained that National Defence "underestimated and understated" the complexity of the contracts for the Chinook.


Certainly defence is a difficult portfolio, but overall MacKay has proven that he's not up for the challenge.

Right-leaning political consultant Gerry Nicholls contends that MacKay doesn't have much of a future in the Conservative Party.

"If MacKay is interested in career advancement, he’d be wise to leave federal politics," he told Yahoo! Canada News.

"His infamous “Orchard deal”, his seeming incompetence in dealing with the F-35 jet controversy; his resolute opposition to allowing “one member one vote” for Conservative leadership contests, have soured him with large elements of the party’s base.

"In other words, as far as Conservative politics goes, MacKay has no place but down or out."

For his benefit, MacKay could probably make a lot more money in the private sector.

And if he still wants to be leader of the Conservatives one day — maybe stepping a way for a couple years would be the smartest thing for him to do.
Former Prime Minister Jean Chretien took a so-called 'strategic retreat' from politics in 1986 and only returned in 1990 to take the over the Liberal leadership.

If MacKay — a very likable and intelligent guy — left politics he could spend some time with the new wife and baby, get some real world experience, become a part-time commentator and maybe regain the respect of the Canadian public.

How does that old saying go: Absence makes the heart grow fonder?

Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on June 28, 2013, 06:42:14
Is this Andy Radia just pulling things out of his a** with his usual commentary or does he have a point this time? I disagree with Radia's assessment that Mackay should leave.

link (http://ca.news.yahoo.com/blogs/canada-politics/advice-defence-minister-peter-mackay-retire-politics-161030224.html)


See, also, this (http://forums.army.ca/forums/index.php/topic,108729.msg1239386.html#msg1239386).
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on July 02, 2013, 12:11:54
Just because it's a slow news day week season, Liberal insider Warren Kinsella pours a little gasoline on the CPC leadership fire with this column, which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Toronto Sun, about why Prime Minister Harper should resign before the 2015 general election:

http://www.torontosun.com/2013/06/28/why-harper-will-quit-while-hes-ahead
Quote
Why Harper will quit while he’s ahead

BY WARREN KINSELLA, QMI AGENCY

FIRST POSTED: MONDAY, JULY 01, 2013

It’s (finally) summertime, when the political speculation is easy.

Heretofore, the subject that no longer seems as crazy as it once did: Will Stephen Harper quit before the next federal election in October 2015?

There are plenty of reasons why he shouldn’t, or why he won’t.

But there are 10 very good reasons why he just might, too. Here they be:

     1. Ten years is a long time: By the time the next election takes place, Harper will have been in power for nearly a decade. Very few last that long, and those who overstay their welcome inevitably end up regretting
         their decision. After that much time has gone by, voters start to get sick of your face.

     2. He could lose. As pollsters have been saying for months, Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau is the real deal. By now, it is clear that his popularity is no passing fad. For the first time, Harper needs to consider the
         possibility that he could to lose to someone he clearly considers his inferior. He doesn’t want to do that.

     3. His party is getting restless. As Alberta Wildrose supporter Rod Love once observed: “When the water dries up, the animals begin to look at each other differently.” So too in politics. Harper’s backbench is no
         longer afraid of him, and rebelling. His PMO is heartily detested throughout the Conservative hinterland. To many Conservatives, Harper is being quietly regarded as a liability, and not an asset.

     4. Leadership shenanigans abound: Jason Kenney has been running a leadership campaign for months; Peter MacKay is warning he will quit the party if he doesn’t get his way on leadership selection rules. Harper,
         mindful of what Jean Chretien endured, may be persuaded to choose discretion over valour.

     5. He is not a wealthy man: Harper and his wife own their Calgary home, but not much else. And, as Calgary Conservative legend Harvie Andre once queried: “Why is it more profitable to know Harvie Andre than to
         be Harvie Andre?” Harper, knowing this, may decide he needs to build up a retirement nest egg while he still can.

     6. He’s a young man: Not even 60, Harper has many prime earning years ahead of him — as a corporate rainmaker, as a member of lucrative boards, as the giver of big-ticket speeches. Why wait until he can’t enjoy
         the fruits of his labours? Why not go while the getting’s good?

     7. Everything starts to look the same: After 10 years in the same job, new files aren’t as exciting or as challenging as they once were. Things develop a sameness to them; boredom and sloppiness start to set in.
         When that happens, it’s time to go.

     8. The Cons don’t stand for anything anymore: Even the party faithful are admitting the mission statement is long forgotten. They have become, in effect, what they came to Ottawa to destroy. Even Harper, a policy
         wonk and partisan, would be hard pressed to express his party’s raison d’etre. Canadians sure can’t.

     9. The job is done: Harper wanted to do three things. One, reduce the Liberal Party to a shadow of its former self. Two, unite conservatives as a single political force. Three, make conservativism a less radical
         political choice. He has indisputably done all three. His legacy is achieved.

     10. Him: Watch him. Listen to him. There is no joy in the job for him anymore. There is no challenge. He looks unhappy.

Will he go?

Who knows?

But no one should be surprised, now, if he does.


Most of them are not bad reasons. Numbers 5 and 6 are good, practical reasons to call it a day. Numbers 1, 4 and 9 are good political reasons to go, too. Numbers 7 and 10 are personal reasons but they could be compelling.

Numbers 2, 3 and 8 are nonsense, but, even so, there are seven good valid reasons to go.

Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on July 02, 2013, 12:50:10
Although I never factored him into the leadership sweepstakes, it is still a bit of a surprise, to me, to learn that Ted Menzies will not run again in 2015 (http://globalnews.ca/news/686338/conservative-cabinet-minister-ted-menzies-to-step-down-in-2015/).

Ted Menzies is Minister of State for Finance and might, in my mind, have been in line for the Finance job IF Jim Flaherty moves on. Maybe his resignation signals that Flaherty will not move.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Thucydides on July 02, 2013, 16:06:35
I think Kinsella may be right on the (7) reasons for Prime Minister Harper to retire, but he has the date wrong: Harper will leave office with the Young Dauphin's scalp on his belt.

The leadership race will begin after the 2015 election so the new leader is in place and has time to reshape the party for 2019.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: MAJONES on July 02, 2013, 16:29:53
Harper will leave office with the Young Dauphin's scalp on his belt.

As much as I hope you're right, I'm not so sure who's scalp is going to be on who's belt.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Hatchet Man on July 02, 2013, 17:35:48
As much as I hope you're right, I'm not so sure who's scalp is going to be on who's belt.

Considering the dauphin did run for leadership so much as he was acclaimed, and has presented much in the way of a platform (yet), I will put money down, he gets his butt handed to him. Harper and his government maybe long in the tooth, but they haven't had any HRDC boondogles, or Shawingate or Adscam.  Yeah they have had problems, but they pale in comparison to those shenanigans.  For all the sky is falling stuff flung at Harper, none of it has come to fruition.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Ostrozac on July 02, 2013, 18:11:28
Regardless of whether Steven Harper wins or loses the next election, after that election would be the logical time to step down, wouldn't it? If he gets defeated by young Trudeau, then he would certainly be expected to resign. And if he wins a fourth consecutive term, that would seem to be the perfect time for him to step aside and let the next leader run the shop for a while until another election in the 2019ish timeframe.

I can't see Steven Harper resigning soon, putting his party through a leadership race in 2014, only to then have an election in 2015. Too many things can go wrong in that scenario. I think if that was his plan, he would have announced his intention to resign by now.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: jpjohnsn on July 02, 2013, 18:14:58
Considering the dauphin did run for leadership so much as he was acclaimed, and has presented much in the way of a platform (yet), I will put money down, he gets his butt handed to him. Harper and his government maybe long in the tooth, but they haven't had any HRDC boondogles, or Shawingate or Adscam.  Yeah they have had problems, but they pale in comparison to those shenanigans.  For all the sky is falling stuff flung at Harper, none of it has come to fruition.
It would be far better to take JT and his Liberals on their current policies (or lack thereof) and record. Trying to evoke scandals of the past is just as likely to backfire badly as succeed.   Whatever Justin's faults (and they are legion), he has a charisma that Ignatieff, Dion or even Martin did not.  The backlash and mocking that came with the first "In over his head" spot should act as a warning.  The Barrie Advance PMO leak debacle should have rung some major alarm bells as to trying to pin things on him that aren't relevant (i.e. trying to concoct a scandal about something that happened before he was even an MP). Doubling down would be stupid.  Let him do their work for them.  Unfortunately, that would require some subtlety  in handling that hasn't been in evidence much lately.

For example, it has gone largely unnoticed that Justin rushed to Edmonton to do whatever it takes to lend a hand yet still made it to the Pride Parade in Toronto before the job was finished. 

If an adversary is running headlong towards a cliff, don't try and give him a push.  If you misjudge it, you could prevent him from going over or end up going over yourself. instead  Just step aside and watch.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Hatchet Man on July 02, 2013, 18:47:42
It would be far better to take JT and his Liberals on their current policies (or lack thereof) and record. Trying to evoke scandals of the past is just as likely to backfire badly as succeed.   Whatever Justin's faults (and they are legion), he has a charisma that Ignatieff, Dion or even Martin did not.  The backlash and mocking that came with the first "In over his head" spot should act as a warning.  The Barrie Advance PMO leak debacle should have rung some major alarm bells as to trying to pin things on him that aren't relevant (i.e. trying to concoct a scandal about something that happened before he was even an MP). Doubling down would be stupid.  Let him do their work for them.  Unfortunately, that would require some subtlety  in handling that hasn't been in evidence much lately.

For example, it has gone largely unnoticed that Justin rushed to Edmonton to do whatever it takes to lend a hand yet still made it to the Pride Parade in Toronto before the job was finished. 

If an adversary is running headlong towards a cliff, don't try and give him a push.  If you misjudge it, you could prevent him from going over or end up going over yourself. instead  Just step aside and watch.

You misinterpreted me.  I didn't say, Harper and the gang should talk about the scandals of Chretien/Martin, I was merely highlighting that the "scandals" in and around Harper are small potatoes compared to Chretien/Martin, and despite the constant soundtrack that Harper and his government will destroy Canada etc. none of the dire prophecies and edicts from various parties and partisans came true.  While I don't think they misfired per se launching right into Trudeau, (since the same tactic of branding your opponent before he can brand himself, worked to great effect before).  I think they are now going to let JT do the work for them (senate comments, these speaking fees).  When it comes to the election he is going to get eviscerated, since there are now only 3 major parties, and the other 2 leaders sure as hell won't be inclined to let the liberals make a come back. 

 
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: ModlrMike on July 02, 2013, 19:27:49
Those who think the Torries are going to savage Mr Trudeau come election time are ignoring just how nasty the NDP will become as it tries to hold onto opposition status. The real battle is not going to be Con vs Lib, rather Lib vs NDP. The Torries have to let them chew on each other while avoiding shooting themselves in the foot.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Hatchet Man on July 02, 2013, 19:47:57
Those who think the Torries are going to savage Mr Trudeau come election time are ignoring just how nasty the NDP will become as it tries to hold onto opposition status. The real battle is not going to be Con vs Lib, rather Lib vs NDP. The Torries have to let them chew on each other while avoiding shooting themselves in the foot.

I agree particularly in Quebec, where the Tories never have a realistic chance anyways.  Unless the BQ makes a miraculous reappearance, it will be Mulcair ripping into JT.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Brad Sallows on July 02, 2013, 22:02:24
>Liberal insider Warren Kinsella pours a little gasoline on the CPC leadership fire

More briar patch journalism.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Fishbone Jones on July 02, 2013, 22:19:32

For example, it has gone largely unnoticed that Justin rushed to Edmonton to do whatever it takes to lend a hand yet still made it to the Pride Parade in Toronto before the job was finished. 


Yup, just burned up carbon credits in jet fuel to get a photo op. "I was in Alberta during those devastating times, where was Mr. Harper?"
 
Did he even go to the areas hard hit, fill a sandbag or roll up his shirt sleeves?

Posturing ponce.

The term 'social butterfly' comes to mind.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on July 03, 2013, 06:33:29
Yup, just burned up carbon credits in jet fuel to get a photo op. "I was in Alberta during those devastating times, where was Mr. Harper?"
 
Did he even go to the areas hard hit, fill a sandbag or roll up his shirt sleeves?

Posturing ponce.

The term 'social butterfly' comes to mind.


I didn't see any pictures of that, but then again I didn't see many pictures of a dirty, sweat soaked Laureen Harper, either, but there were some:

(https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.windsorstar.com%2Fnews%2Falberta%2Fcms%2Fbinary%2F8583731.jpg%3Fsize%3D640x420&hash=eddf90463a2a0f2928ed51c2497be65d)
Mrs Harper, some PMO staff and some CPC MPs pitch in in Calgary's cleanup
Source: Windsor Star (http://www.windsorstar.com/news/alberta/Live+Gallery+Laureen+Harper+volunteers+cleanup+continues/8582486/story.html)

In fairness there were more compelling images than the PM's wife helping her neighbours and, of course, the Nenshi/Redford/Smith PR machines were out in full force.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on July 04, 2013, 11:13:05
Although I never factored him into the leadership sweepstakes, it is still a bit of a surprise, to me, to learn that Ted Menzies will not run again in 2015 (http://globalnews.ca/news/686338/conservative-cabinet-minister-ted-menzies-to-step-down-in-2015/).

Ted Menzies is Minister of State for Finance and might, in my mind, have been in line for the Finance job IF Jim Flaherty moves on. Maybe his resignation signals that Flaherty will not move.


And now CTV's Bob Fife is reporting that Diane Ablonczy (http://www.dianeablonczy.com/), Minister of State of Foreign Affairs (Americas and Consular Affairs) will also not run again in 2015. Once again, while I did not factor into to my leadership equation she has been far more asset than liability to the CPC and to Prime Minister Harper.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on July 17, 2013, 20:14:56
In the National Post, John Ivison speculates that, despite her poor French, he calls it a "work in progress," Lisa Raitt should be considered as a contender (http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2013/07/17/john-ivison-how-lisa-raitt-became-a-possible-contender-to-succeed-stephen-harper/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter).

(https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwpmedia.fullcomment.nationalpost.com%2F2013%2F07%2Flisa-raitt.jpg%3Fw%3D620&hash=7676673635b98d4370a9a3d6573126ae)
Federal transport minister Lisa Raitt, speaks to members of the media in Lac-Megantic, Quebec,
July 17, 2013.                                                                                   Tyler Anderson/National Post

John Ivison also says that, "the front-runners are already well-established in that race — James Moore and Jason Kenney are said to have nascent organizations that could be fired up at moment’s notice. Former minister Jim Prentice keeps a watchful eye on Ottawa from his perch on Bay Street, while Peter MacKay may yet re-ignite an interest in leadership that appears to have cooled as he embraces marriage and fatherhood."

Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: PPCLI Guy on July 17, 2013, 21:30:25
And who ever wins next will be replaced by Chris Alexander........
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on July 17, 2013, 22:05:51
And who ever wins next will be replaced by Chris Alexander........


Mr Alexander has to "earn his spurs" first by holding on to and, preferably, increasing the CPC's edge in the 905 belt. If he can manage that then his political stock will be HUGE.

Under redistribution BC will have 42 seats, AB will have 34 (combined they almost equal QC) but the 905 belt, alone, has 35+/- (depending on how you define the "belt") ~ it's like AB, all on its own.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on November 21, 2013, 07:51:36
...
Let me redo the list:

(https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.parl.gc.ca%2FMembersOfParliament%2FImages%2FOfficialMPPhotos%2F41%2FAmbroseRona_CPC.jpg&hash=7012575a64b325b07fb6d484a4578a4e)     (https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.parl.gc.ca%2FMembersOfParliament%2FImages%2FOfficialMPPhotos%2F41%2FBairdJohn_CPC.jpg&hash=71f1721bf7fff565c06ffe4412382cdf)     (https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.parl.gc.ca%2FMembersOfParliament%2FImages%2FOfficialMPPhotos%2F41%2FKenneyJason_CPC.jpg&hash=839dd3c3ffd352e497fc1900655b0da6)     (https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.parl.gc.ca%2FMembersOfParliament%2FImages%2FOfficialMPPhotos%2F41%2FMooreJames_CPC.jpg&hash=e78b5574615f19562d46dafa4e3520e1)     (https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.parl.gc.ca%2FMembersOfParliament%2FImages%2FOfficialMPPhotos%2F41%2FMacKayPeterGordon_CPC.jpg&hash=39b6aa73055e7e4d48ec27e1d9c4a017)     (https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.pc.gc.ca%2Fimages%2FJimPrentice.jpg&hash=e987eea02a0c316bf4dd924ec96017b9)
Rona Ambrose                    John Baird                          Jason Kenney                     James Moore                       Peter MacKay                     Jim Prentice
Alberta, Age: 43                  Ontario, Age: 43                 Saskatchewan, Age: 44        BC, Age: 36                        Nova Scotia, Age: 47           Alberta, Age: 56
Libertarian                          Moderate                           Social Conservative              Libertarian                          Moderate                           Moderate

All lily white, no Francophones, one woman, all under 60, one under 40.

I remain convinced that Prentice is the best candidate ~ but I tend to overrate gravitas and underrate the value of social conservatism. I agree with others that Ambrose is the least likely to lead the party. I also think that, on balance, MacKay loses to Prentice and Ambrose loses to Moore, so my choices are:

First:                    Jim Prentice
Tied for Second:  John Baird or Jason Kenney
Fourth:                James Moore
Tied for Fifth:       Rona Ambrose or Peter MacKay


I'm bumping this because I think that the Senate Scandal® has stained the Prime Minister's reputation for personal integrity.

It's easy enough for me to explain the fact (and it is a fact) that the centralizatin of too much power in the PMO began 45 years ago, under Pierre Trudeau, but the other fact is that Stephen Harper's PMO crossed an important ethical line. So, Justice Gomery concluded, did Jean Chrétien's ... but M. Chrétien and the Liberal Party paid a political price for that. I doubt Prime Minister Harper is immune to that.

I can, without straining my imagination too much, construct a scenario in which Prime Minister Harper decides, next year, 2014, that he cannot, under existing circumstances, lead the Conservatives to another victory, not even a minority, and decides that the "Hail Mary" play ~ a new, fresh, leader ~ is the CPC's best (only?) hope.

I might, however rejig, my prediction:

Tied for First after five ballots: Jason Kenney and Jim Prentice;
Third:                                       John Baird;
Also Rans:                                Rona Ambrose, Peter MacKay and James Moore.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: milnews.ca on November 21, 2013, 08:52:47
He's a pretty good man, but do you think Jim Prentice'll get back into the saddle to 1)  rewin a seat, and 2)  go for the leadership, especially from a gig like this (https://www.cibc.com/ca/inside-cibc/executive-teams/prentice.html)?  I have zero insider knowledge about such things, so I'd love to hear from those who may hear things in his old riding/stomping grounds.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: pbi on November 21, 2013, 08:59:44
Quote
It's easy enough for me to explain the fact (and it is a fact) that the centralizatin of too much power in the PMO began 45 years ago, under Pierre Trudeau, but the other fact is that Stephen Harper's PMO crossed an important ethical line. So, Justice Gomery concluded, did Jean Chrétien's ... but M. Chrétien and the Liberal Party paid a political price for that. I doubt Prime Minister Harper is immune to that.

Two points:

-as part of any reform of our political system to make it more accountable, transparent, and democratic, I believe that the PMO has got to be pushed back into its box. You are right to say that its insidious growth has not respected any particular party lines: people like power, etc, etc.; but IMHO it has become almost a mini-GoC on its own. I don't expect anything to happen right now, but maybe an election might bring changes; and

-although things are beginning to look worse every morning for the PM, I still cling to the idea that he is not a fundamentally dishonest nor corrupt individual. I don't love everything about him and his version of Toryism, but I have never seen him in the same light as say, TMWNSNBM*.

* The Mayor Whose Name Shall Not Be Mentioned
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on November 21, 2013, 09:07:44
He's a pretty good man, but do you think Jim Prentice'll get back into the saddle to 1)  rewin a seat, and 2)  go for the leadership, especially from a gig like this (https://www.cibc.com/ca/inside-cibc/executive-teams/prentice.html)?  I have zero insider knowledge about such things, so I'd love to hear from those who may hear things in his old riding/stomping grounds.


I wouldn't if I were him, but ... he retains immense levels of 'popularity' in some conservative circles. He's got more gravitas than all the rest combined. Being away from parliament over the past few years might be a HUGE political advantage and, I believe, he has an agenda, for Canada, which he can implement, best, from the PM's seat.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on November 21, 2013, 09:20:37
Two points:

-as part of any reform of our political system to make it more accountable, transparent, and democratic, I believe that the PMO has got to be pushed back into its box. You are right to say that its insidious growth has not respected any particular party lines: people like power, etc, etc.; but IMHO it has become almost a mini-GoC on its own. I don't expect anything to happen right now, but maybe an election might bring changes; and

-although things are beginning to look worse every morning for the PM, I still cling to the idea that he is not a fundamentally dishonest nor corrupt individual. I don't love everything about him and his version of Toryism, but I have never seen him in the same light as say, TMWNSNBM*.

* The Mayor Whose Name Shall Not Be Mentioned


But actually being honest will not help. The media is is full, rabid, pursuit, howling and screaming ... it's not about media bias, not at all, it is all about Gotcha! journalism (http://www.wisegeek.com/what-is-gotcha-journalism.htm), about which the late George Bain reminded us back in 1994 (http://www.wisegeek.com/what-is-gotcha-journalism.htm). Every reporter in Ottawa wants to be the one who brought down a prime minister ... for some this prime minister would be the best prize of all.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: milnews.ca on November 21, 2013, 09:58:57
.... He's got more gravitas than all the rest combined .... Being away from parliament over the past few years might be a HUGE political advantage ....
True, and good point/agreed, respectively.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: dapaterson on November 21, 2013, 10:10:12
In the immortal words of Doonesbury, confirmed bachelors are just so fascinating.


Also interesting is Jason Kenney's decision to start drawing a line where the mayor of Toronto is concerned; I'm curious as to whether that's a party ploy to test the waters, or an individual ploy to get out in front of the rest of the pack for the inevitable Next Leader competition.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on November 21, 2013, 10:21:27
In the immortal words of Doonesbury, confirmed bachelors are just so fascinating.


Also interesting is Jason Kenney's decision to start drawing a line where the mayor of Toronto is concerned; I'm curious as to whether that's a party ploy to test the waters, or an individual ploy to get out in front of the rest of the pack for the inevitable Next Leader competition.


My guess is: both. Even more guesswork: Kenney freelanced that in order to both (again) spare the prime minister any embarrassing need to do so (thereby earning even more brownie points) and to establish himself as an independent leader in the eyes of the grassroots. Jason Kenney is an impressive politician. Even though I do not share, I don't even approve of, his social views I would be happy to see him in 24 Sussex Drive ... especially when the alternative is Justin Trudeau. My first choice is still Jim Prentice, who, I think, is best for me and for Canada, but I have few problems with Kenney, none of them "show stoppers."
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Remius on November 21, 2013, 11:26:07
Also interesting is Jason Kenney's decision to start drawing a line where the mayor of Toronto is concerned; I'm curious as to whether that's a party ploy to test the waters, or an individual ploy to get out in front of the rest of the pack for the inevitable Next Leader competition.

I doubt that it was a party ploy to test the waters, the CPC usually relies on smaller fish to do that not senior cabinet members.  I think it's likely the latter.  And it is a smart move.  Not commenting is likely worse since it implies collusion, or at least tacit support (not that it is the case but the media and critic will try anything to link the PM or any conservative to the Mayor of Toronto) and Minister Kenney drew a clear line without any real damage.  The media asks, question answered, anything else?  No, story ends as far he's involved and likely the media are not going to ask him anymore questions about it.  He also has no links to this going into a potential leadership race.

Minister Flaherty went a different but also very effective route.  "Yes I am close to the family."  Making this a personal issue and not necessarily a political one.  His emotional response (I believe it was genuine) also helped show that.

And finally I think the Ford brothers did the CPC a favour by stating outright that no one but Flaherty (a family friend) has ever helped them or supported them.  Whether this is true or not is another thing but it signals to critics that they are on their own. 
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: PPCLI Guy on November 22, 2013, 17:59:22
In the immortal words of Doonesbury, confirmed bachelors are just so fascinating.

You leave John Baird alone!
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on November 23, 2013, 08:43:03
I'm posting this here because the two articles suggest that prime Minister Harper cannot survive until 2015 because the Senate Scandal® is so toxic that it overwhelms everything else.

Stephen Mahar, writing a widely syndicated column (http://o.canada.com/news/national/its-hard-to-imagine-harper-government-ever-recovering-from-this-mess/#.Uo_1DskxpUU.twitter), says that "the RCMP dumped an 81-page bag of burning refuse on the steps of the Prime Minister’s Office, journalists and opposition MPs have sensibly focused on a question that could undo the prime minister: What did he know about the secret $90,000 payment from his chief of staff to Sen. Mike Duffy?" and "The burning bag of refuse will not be disposed of easily." It shows, he suggests that Prime Minister Harper's PMO and, indeed, many of his legislators were, at the very least, unethical.

Thomas Walcom, writing in the Toronto Star (http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2013/11/22/why_stephen_harper_should_step_down_walkom.html) suggests, not surprisingly, given that he is a star Star columnist, that Prime Minister Harper should step down, soon, and make way for e.g. Jason Kenney.

I know I'm repeating myself, but Harold Wilson's old adage that a week is a long time in politics is valid, and on that basis we have nearly 100 "long times," i.e. something akin to an eternity, until an election in October 2015.

But if the Tories manage to lose Brandon-Souris on Monday it will be, likely, because of the Senate Scandal® and, especially because of the prime minister's heavy handed, indeed, in my opinion inept handing of the affair. We have discussed, before, that Prime Minister Harper seems unable to ever admit anything, much less apologize ... maybe because history suggests that Canadians don't react well, at the polls, to a bit of contrition. St Laurent apologized for invoking closure in the Pipeline Debate ... Diefenbaker won the election. Diefenbaker apologized for dithering on nukes ... Pearson won the election. Clark apologized for a 18¢/gallon gas tax ... Trudeau won the election. Martin apologized, profusely, for AdScan ... Harper won the election. In any event, if Brandon-Souris goes Liberals, which some polls suggest it might, then his leadership will be weakened and the ambitions of possible contenders will be strengthened.

Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Fishbone Jones on December 07, 2013, 19:38:52
Haven't seen this here. Was wondering if it's just wishful thinking on Ivison's part and he's trying to spark more controversy. No one else seems to have picked it up or is taking it seriously.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/...er-he-returns/  (http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/...er-he-returns/)

Quote
John Ivison: As PM prepares for Israel trip, speculation abounds: Will he resign after he returns?
John Ivison | 04/12/13 12:49 PM ET

 As Conservatives gathered to mark the start of the Christmas party season, it was curious how few were talking about the Senate.

 That’s yesterday’s news. All the chatter was about the Prime Minister: Will he or won’t he? Step down, that is.

 One person said that Stephen Harper’s first ever trip to Israel was originally scheduled for March and was brought forward. Big decisions are being put off, the Conservative said, and there is open speculation that Mr. Harper will return from the Middle East in triumph and announce he plans to resign as Prime Minister before Parliament returns for the spring session.

 Not so, says Jason MacDonald, Mr. Harper’s director of communications, who confirmed different dates were looked at for the trip but the final decision was based on other obligations and the House schedule. “The Prime Minister remains focused on ensuring our government delivers on the priorities of Canadians: jobs, the economy and keeping our communities safe,” he said.

 That is hardly likely to dampen speculation that the Prime Minister is weighing his options. If the decision to go has been made, Mr. Harper has likely kept it to himself and an extremely tight group around him.

 People who see him on a regular basis say there is nothing in his current demeanour to indicate he is in flight mode. The incentives to stay, apart from the perks of office, include moving to number six in the list of Canada’s longest-serving prime ministers, from number nine, within the next 12 months.

 But the recent by-election results have rattled Conservative MPs in marginal seats. Angst is deepening and talk has turned to how the Prime Minister can recover from trust numbers that are rock bottom. “No one has the answer precisely because no one believes it is possible,” said one MP. “Could it be that the man who did nothing wrong loses his leadership because no one believes him?”

If the backbench is reaching that conclusion, rest assured Mr. Harper has already calculated the odds.

 It seems apparent that he would like to lead the Conservative Party into the next election. Most of the MPs I have spoken to think this remains the party’s best shot at winning.

 They point out the campaign to present Justin Trudeau as a lightweight who can’t be trusted to run the economy is hardly out of the gate yet. They say the idea that the early Conservative attack ads have backfired is specious. Research from both parties suggest voters believe it is inevitable that Mr. Trudeau will be prime minister one day. But it also suggests they don’t think he is ready yet and the Tories will help reinforce that impression.

 This government has made the mistake of growing old — an aging process that has been hastened by it deserting many of its ideals.
 
 Tory optimists also say the economy is finally showing signs of recovery and the government will enter the 2015 election campaign with the budget balanced, taxes cut and unemployment at manageable levels.

 But a reviving economy presents its own problems. If things are humming along, it is harder to warn voters against taking a “risk” on Mr. Trudeau or the NDP’s Tom Mulcair.

 People who know Mr. Harper say he has no desire to return to minority government, or worse, lose to a Trudeau. Yet the odds look extremely long on being returned as leader of another majority.

 This government has made the mistake of growing old — an aging process that has been hastened by it deserting many of its ideals.

 Mr. Harper may conclude that people have simply grown fed up of seeing him around and it is in the interests of the party, and the broader Conservative movement, for him to retire.

 The chat on the party circuit this week quickly turned from “will he or won’t he?” to “who’s next?”

The recent by-election results have rattled Conservative MPs in marginal seats. Angst is deepening
 .
 The name that springs to everyone’s lips is Jason Kenney, the Employment Minister, who seems to be in high dudgeon these days at some of the dumber decisions coming out of the Prime Minister’s Office.

 Yet, for any number of reasons — including his overt pro-life position — Mr. Kenney is said to believe the crown can never be his. If true, he is the ideal position to be king (or queen) maker.

 It seems to me that the departure of Stephen Harper, quite inconceivable not so long ago, is now eminently conceivable. And the answer to the “who’s next” question is: “Whoever Jason Kenney wants it to be.”
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on December 07, 2013, 19:43:51
Well, there's this, from Gable in the Globe and Mail:

(https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.theglobeandmail.com%2Fincoming%2Farticle15804227.ece%2FBINARY%2Fw620%2Fweb-Satedcar07co1.jpg&hash=62f986f2911ef03baf80f7b9150ea0d7)
Source: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/december-editorial-cartoons/article15688440/#dashboard/follows/

I think some Conservatives agree; the first duty of the leader is to lead ... to lead the party into government. When that looks doubtful, and assuming the platform/policies are OK,  then a new leader might be the right answer.


-----


But, Mods, might this be merged with the Next Conservative leader (http://forums.army.ca/forums/index.php/topic,107652.0.html) thread?
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: milnews.ca on December 07, 2013, 20:24:20
But, Mods, might this be merged with the Next Conservative leader (http://forums.army.ca/forums/index.php/topic,107652.0.html) thread?
Sounds good - done.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Brad Sallows on December 12, 2013, 15:06:58
>was wondering if it's just wishful thinking on Ivison's part

I don't know Ivison's politics, but rest assured there is a large contingent of pot-stirrers out there whose interest in expense account abuse is much less than their interest in trying to generate a self-fulfilling expectation that Harper will vacate his office as soon as possible.

Until something more useful comes along, expect the usual gang of whiners to continue pumping air into this one.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Rocky Mountains on December 12, 2013, 20:16:27
Prentice?  He's simply Justin Trudeau without his mother's brain genes.  Why do we want a liberal to lead the Conservatives?  Conservative scandals haven't had traction.  What kind of a scandal is repaying $91,000 to the government.  All the statements by police to obtain warrants have to implicate people or they wouldn't get the warrant.  It doesn't mean it's true, just the cop's spin.

The election is a year or two away and the best weapon is Harper himself.  Once the tough campaign questions start Trudeau will fold.  He had a walk through to get the leadership.  Nobody at all challenged him on an intellectual basis and he's had a media holiday.  He isn't going to become prime minister on his girl hair alone.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Thucydides on December 12, 2013, 20:46:54
If you go the "Liberal Party of Canada Leadership" thread, you can see the Young Dauphin is apparently on holiday from his own caucus as well....http://forums.army.ca/forums/index.php/topic,107637.msg1275764.html#msg1275764
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on December 12, 2013, 21:24:41
Prentice?  He's simply Justin Trudeau without his mother's brain genes.  Why do we want a liberal to lead the Conservatives?  Conservative scandals haven't had traction.  What kind of a scandal is repaying $91,000 to the government.  All the statements by police to obtain warrants have to implicate people or they wouldn't get the warrant.  It doesn't mean it's true, just the cop's spin.

The election is a year or two away and the best weapon is Harper himself.  Once the tough campaign questions start Trudeau will fold.  He had a walk through to get the leadership.  Nobody at all challenged him on an intellectual basis and he's had a media holiday.  He isn't going to become prime minister on his girl hair alone.


Poli Sci 101: Never, ever underestimate the power of celebrity, never overestimate the intelligence or policy engagement of Canadian voters.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Rocky Mountains on December 13, 2013, 12:25:37

Poli Sci 101: Never, ever underestimate the power of celebrity, never overestimate the intelligence or policy engagement of Canadian voters.

You are confusing me with the truth.  Trudeau just scares the bejeezers out of me.  If he is elected I will have to start smoking the legalized weed to cope.  The weed might cure my road rage.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on January 02, 2014, 11:55:46
And The Star's Tonda MacCharles weighs in on this tyopic in this article which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Toronto Star:

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2014/01/01/jason_kenney_heir_apparent_or_kingmaker.html
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Jason Kenney: Heir apparent or kingmaker?
As 2013 drew to a close it was possible to glimpse what a future leadership race for the Conservative Party might one day look like. And to suspect there’s already a frontrunner: Jason Kenney, should he choose to run.

By: Tonda MacCharles Ottawa Bureau reporter

Published on Wed Jan 01 2014

OTTAWA—Peter MacKay is working on his French. James Moore is losing weight. And Jason Kenney is working the room at a pub full of journalists hosted by his staff.

Meatballs, devilled eggs and drinks on the house.

It has the feel of a hospitality suite. The kind you’d find at, say, a leadership convention. But of course there’s no race on. Not yet.
Prime Minister Stephen Harper insisted in year-end interviews he intends to lead his party in a 2015 election.

Still, as 2013 drew to a close it was possible to glimpse what a future leadership race for the Conservative Party might one day look like. And to suspect there’s already a frontrunner: Jason Kenney, should he choose to run.

Kenney will not talk about such matters. He sidesteps any effort to probe his interest. People who know him well are divided on whether he will throw his hat in the ring. Some believe it’s absolutely his intent. Others suspect he’d rather be kingmaker, sew up the job of finance minister and still retain the freedom and privacy that the top job doesn’t have.

Whatever his personal ambitions, the 45-year-old Kenney has emerged as a minister unafraid of publicly countering Prime Minister Stephen Harper or asserting views his cabinet colleagues don’t like.

Kenney broke ranks a few times in the past two months as the Senate scandal eroded public confidence in Harper’s carefully groomed image of a leader in firm control.

First, to defend Nigel Wright as a principled man who had an “uncharacteristic” lapse in judgment — right after Harper slammed Wright for deceiving him. Second, to come out flatly against Senate abolition — an option the government has put before the Supreme Court — or any need for a referendum on it. Third, to denounce the behaviour of Toronto Mayor Rob Ford, Harper’s GTA ally, as a disgrace to public office and call for him to step aside.

CBC Radio’s The House reported Finance Minister Jim Flaherty rebuked Kenney in the Commons over Ford, telling him to “shut the f--- up.” Kenney barked back at Flaherty.

The clash of two political powerhouses on the floor of the Commons may be a small eruption at the end of a tense time for Conservatives. But the fact that tensions are on display signals caucus divisions — and perhaps political ambitions — are simmering not far beneath the surface.

At the last cabinet shuffle, Flaherty openly lobbied to keep his job. Harper kept Flaherty on and made Kenney, a former finance critic, human resources minister with a new title: Employment and Social Development Minister.

He got responsibility for job training, unemployment insurance, old age security, and the Canada Pension Plan.

The inside joke: Kenney — a fiscal conservative and past head of the Canadian Taxpayers Federation — is now minister of the welfare state.

On the other hand, it unquestionably showed Harper’s continued confidence in the Calgary MP, who rose from the prime minister’s parliamentary secretary up through the ministerial ranks. Of cabinet ministers said to be the savviest, most prepared and best able to go toe-to-toe with the prime minister in cabinet, Kenney and James Moore top the list, said one source.

In fact, Harper has entrusted Kenney with nailing one of his toughest files: the 2013 budget showpiece, the Canada Jobs Grant. It’s up to Kenney to negotiate with provinces and business leaders to implement a policy that was sprung on them with no warning and will revamp how some $300 million in skills training money is spent.

A workhorse, Kenney also retained the chair of cabinet’s powerful operations committee, sits on two other committees — social affairs, and planning and priorities — and still holds the reins on the multiculturalism file.

He wanted that. It turns out all those years as the government’s lead on multiculturalism, immigration and citizenship files and the party’s lead on ethnic voter outreach left Kenney quite liking his role of “minister of curry in a hurry.”

Kenney, an unabashed extrovert, has greetings in dozens of different languages on his Blackberry. He counts good friends in ethnic communities and ethnic media across the country, especially in southern Ontario ridings.

He’s earned political support and cash from many of those same ridings — the better to host hospitality suites, to lend money to fellow candidates whose bank accounts are not as flush, and to be a power broker come any future leadership race.

The CBC’s Kady O’Malley documented that Kenney even out-fundraised Harper last year. In 2012, Harper’s Calgary Southwest riding association raised just over $100,000 from 404 contributors, with just two Toronto-based donations of more than $200.

Next door, Kenney’s Calgary Southeast riding association pulled in nearly double that amount from double the number of donors across Canada — $195,000 from 951 contributors, including more than $50,000 in donations over $200 from 78 supporters in the Toronto area.

Ontario’s been particularly good to Kenney. Since 2007, after he became a junior minister in charge of multiculturalism, donors from this province poured $145,000 into his riding association.

Long identified with the social conservative wing of his party, Kenney was first elected in 1997 at 29 as a Reform MP. He has won re-election five more times since, increasing his popular vote on each ballot except 2008.

Among likely contenders for the party leadership one day — a list that invariably includes Moore, MacKay, and former cabinet colleague Jim Prentice — it is Kenney who would be able to rally the votes of social conservatives, whether for his own benefit or that of his preferred candidate.

The larger question perhaps for Kenney would be even if he were able to win the party, could he win the country?

But that is surely a question for another day.

For now, he’s young enough that he can afford to wait if Harper does stick around and hangs on to his current finance minister, Flaherty, who also insists he’s not going anywhere.

Meanwhile, Kenney’s not the only Conservative minister who is a little more outspoken these days. MacKay, Moore, Quebec’s Maxime Bernier and others who are not believed to harbour leadership ambitions like John Baird, Lisa Raitt, Rona Ambrose and Michelle Rempel are also more vocal and publicly visible than ever.

Consultant Tim Powers, a Conservative strategist, does not see any of it as leadership jockeying, but a sign of generational maturity.

Powers suggests the strongest cabinet performers are more confident, politically comfortable and willing to assert themselves, perhaps knowing their future political profile will depend not so much on Harper, but on their own “reputational positioning.”

“All are extremely loyal to the prime minister,” says Powers, and “all recognize that . . . an open leadership race is not good for the party or for them.”

On the other hand, says Powers, their visibility is “arguably a benefit” to the prime minister and the party if his strong players are “more out there” and engaging Canadians.


While I still think that Jim Prentice is closest to the sort of Conservative I am, I could live with prime Minister Kenney.

I think 2013 was very, very hard on Prime Minister Harper. The Senate issue/scandal has made some (many?) Conservatives question his judgement and it has cost him political capital. "Who," some CPC members are no doubt asking "is better placed to fend off Justin Trudeau? Is it Stephen Harper or a younger man (or woman) who is more "attractive," more telegenic, more "likeable?" Jason Kenny scores fairly high on those traits, I think.

Does anyone else find it a bit odd that Tonda MacCharles appears to count out John Baird and Rona Ambrose when she says "others who are not believed to harbour leadership ambitions like John Baird, Lisa Raitt, Rona Ambrose and Michelle Rempel are also more vocal and publicly visible than ever."? My suspicion is that both Ambrose and Baird are in the race (despite some disadvantages with the Reform base) but, maybe, one, or both of them what to be the "kingmaker."
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on January 20, 2014, 18:07:57
Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from The Hill Times is a report on an interesting poll:

http://www.hilltimes.com/news/politics/2014/01/20/justice-minister-mackay-leads-among-federal-conservative-party-votes-says-new/37168
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Justice Minister MacKay leads among federal Conservative Party votes, says new poll
There is no outright sign at the moment that Prime Minister Stephen Harper is even contemplating the possibility of not leading his party into the next federal election. But Justice Minister Peter MacKay does best among Conservative leadership hopefuls, says a Forum Research poll.

By TIM NAUMETZ

Published: Monday, 01/20/2014

PARLIAMENT HILL—Justice Minister Peter MacKay leads the field in Conservative voter approval for top ministers in Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s Cabinet, a new poll has found.

More than half of federal Conservative Party supporters, 53 per cent, registered their approval for Mr. MacKay (Central Nova, N.S.) in a recent Forum Research survey.

Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird (Ottawa West-Nepean, Ont.) registered second with a 45-per-cent approval rating among respondents who support the Conservative party, followed by Employment and Social Development Minister Jason Kenney (Calgary Southeast, Alta.) with an approval rating of 37 per cent among leaning or decided Conservative voters.

Another high-profile member of Cabinet, Treasury Board President Tony Clement (Parry Sound-Muskoka, Ont.), had the fourth-highest approval rating among Conservative supporters, at 32 per cent.

Understandably perhaps, approval for each of the four ministers was at lower levels when the views of voters who expressed support for other parties were included, although Mr. MacKay again led the way, with approval from 26 per cent of all the Forum Research respondents.

Mr. Baird received approval from 20 per cent of all the respondents, including those leaning toward or supporting other parties.

Mr. MacKay, 48, is arguably best known to Canadians for his role as Defence minister beefing up the Canadian Armed Forces during Canada’s participation in the Afghanistan war. He played a key role in 2003 helping Mr. Harper (Calgary Southwest, Alta.) merge the former Progressive Conservative Party with Mr. Harper’s former Canadian Alliance party, but did not run against Mr. Harper in the new party’s first leadership election.

There is no outright sign at the moment that Mr. Harper is even contemplating the possibility of not leading his party into the next federal election.

But there were signs late last year of jostling, with speculation the Prime Minister might indeed step down.

Much of the gossip centered on the relentless assault the government and Mr. Harper were enduring over the role of his former chief of staff, Nigel Wright, in the Senate expense scandal and RCMP documents that contradicted Mr. Harper’s explanation of $90,000 Mr. Wright gave to Senator Mike Duffy in an attempt to end the expense controversy last February.

Mr. Harper told Postmedia News in December he would be leading his party into the next election.

“I’m enjoying running the government,” he said. “I think I’ve got the only strong team and the only group of people with a serious economic agenda for the country. So we need to keep moving forward,” Mr. Harper said.

Though the Senate expense front has been calm over Parliament’s winter recess, NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair (Outremont, Que.) is expected to don his Crown prosecutor robe again when Question Period returns with the resumption of the House of Commons next Monday, Jan. 27.

That scenario might well lead to more leadership speculation, or more theories about an early election call, which would depend as well on unexpectedly concerning news recently on the economy as well as a potential ruling on Senate reform possibilities from the Supreme Court of Canada this spring.

The Forum Research poll question did not mention a potential Conservative Party leadership race, and did not include the names of any female Conservative Cabinet ministers or politicians. Transport Minister Lisa Raitt’s (Halton, Ont.) is part of the federal Conservative leadership speculation, but the Forum Research survey did include her name.

Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall, who leads the conservative Saskatchewan Party, won approval from 26 per cent of Conservative-leaning voters, while a former member of Mr. Harper’s cabinet, bank executive Jim Prentice, received support from 23 per cent of Conservative voters.

Industry Minister James Moore (Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam, B.C.), 37, received approval from 16 per cent of respondents who were leaning or decided in favour of voting Conservative.

Minister of Staff for Small Business Maxime Bernier (Beauce, Que.) received approval from 16 per cent of leaning Conservative voters.

“Peter MacKay, as a founder of the party and with his long and faithful service, is a natural to take over the reins when Prime Minister Harper gets bored,” said Mr. Bozinoff. “It is interesting to note that, while Conservatives themselves give the highest marks to MacKay and Baird, two party loyalists, the general public sees the fewest negatives in Jim Prentice and Brad Wall, the latter of whom isn’t even a Conservative.”

But Conservative commentator Tim Powers argued the preferences for Mr. MacKay and the others in the top tier are likely related to the fact they are among the most prominent members of Mr. Harper’s team.

“I am not surprised by the number, as it is more about recognition and it makes sense,” Mr. Powers said.

“Peter, John and Jason are in the top three. They have the most visibility both now and historically. (It is) hard to correlate to leadership,” Mr. Powers said.

Mr. Clement, 52, was third in the overall results from all respondents with only 14 per cent approval once supporters of other parties were included.

Mr. Kenney, 45, received approval from 17 per cent of all respondents, including Conservative supporters and others.

Mr. Moore received support from only nine per cent of all respondents.

The Forum Research interactive voice response telephone survey of 1,779 randomly selected Canadians of voting age was conducted on Jan. 16 and Jan. 17 last week.

news@hilltimes.com

The Hill Times


Perhaps, given the masses of bad publicity, in the mainstream media, that attended Mr MacKay last year, the old adage that all press is good press is true.

It also indicates that the old Progressive Conservative wing is still alive and well in the CPC.
 
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on January 29, 2014, 10:28:36
And Éric Grenier, whose polls, at ThreeHundredEight.com (http://www.threehundredeight.com), I often cite, affirms the Hill Times' view in this article which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/globe-politics-insider/peter-mackay-the-favourite-to-replace-harper-polls-show/article16548975/#dashboard/follows/
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Peter MacKay the favourite to replace Harper, polls show

SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Éric Grenier
Special to The Globe and Mail

Published Wednesday, Jan. 29 2014

Recent polls suggest that Justice Minister Peter MacKay is the frontrunner to replace Prime Minister Stephen Harper as Conservative leader. If recent history is any indication, that is not a strong indication that he ever will.

Two polls conducted in mid-January by Abacus Data and Forum Research both indicated that Mr. MacKay was the preferred candidate among Canadians and Conservative supporters to take Mr. Harper’s spot should the Prime Minister ever resign. The Abacus poll pegged him as the choice of 24 per cent of Canadians who voted for the Conservatives in 2011, putting him ahead of Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall (13 per cent), Employment minister Jason Kenney (10 per cent), former cabinet minister Jim Prentice (7 per cent) and Industry Minister James Moore (2 per cent). Of note, however, is that 44 per cent of those polled selected “none of the above.”

(For more analysis and numbers, check out our political polls page (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/topic/Canadian-Political-Polls#dashboard/follows/).)

The survey by Forum Research only asked whether Canadians and Conservative voters approved or disapproved of some of the contenders. Again Mr. MacKay, the last leader of the Progressive Conservative Party, topped the list with 26 per cent approval nationwide and 53 per cent approval among Tories. At 36 per cent, he had the lowest “don’t know” level of any of the listed contenders.

Among Conservatives, Mr. MacKay’s approval rating was higher than Mr. Kenney’s (38 per cent), Mr. Wall’s (26 per cent), Mr. Prentice’s (23 per cent), and Mr. Moore’s (16 per cent), as well as the other listed contenders: Foreign Minister John Baird (45 per cent), Treasury Board President Tony Clement (32 per cent) and Minister of State Maxime Bernier (16 per cent). Only Mr. Bernier had a disapproval rating among Conservatives that was higher than his approval rating.

Abacus conducted its survey with an online panel from Jan. 14 to 18, interviewing 633 Conservative voters. Online panels don’t have a probabilistic margin of error. Forum conducted its poll via interactive voice response from Jan. 16 to 17, surveying 1,779 Canadians and 487 Conservative voters. Forum claims a margin of error of plus or minus 2 per cent for their entire sample.

Perennial favourite

In fact, this is not the first time that Mr. MacKay has been registered as the favourite to replace Stephen Harper. Mr. MacKay led a poll conducted by SES Research (now Nanos Research) in November 2005 listing potential replacements for the Conservative leader (he beat out former Ontario premier Mike Harris in the survey).

It would seem, then, that Peter MacKay would be the frontrunner if a Conservative leadership race is called, as he seemingly has the most support among Conservatives and would be best able to bring non-Conservatives into the Tory fold. But leading in a hypothetical leadership race has not always been a very good omen in the past, particularly in a crowded field.

...but do the polls matter?

Polls conducted concerning who might replace Paul Martin as Liberal leader are a particularly good example. The November 2005 survey by SES Research pegged former New Brunswick premier Frank McKenna as the favourite among Liberal supporters for the job at 28 per cent, putting him well ahead of former deputy prime minister John Manley (13 per cent). Author Michael Ignatieff placed well behind with just 4 per cent support. Mr. Martin’s actual replacement, former environment minister Stéphane Dion, was not even listed.

A poll conducted by Ipsos Reid in January 2006, just before the federal election occurred, asked who should replace Mr. Martin if he lost. Mr. McKenna was again the favourite, followed closely by Brian Tobin and with Mr. Ignatieff low on the list. Again, Mr. Dion was not listed.

A February 2006 poll conducted by SES Research had a more clear picture of who would be likely to run, and suggested that Ken Dryden was the favourite to replace Mr. Martin among all Canadians. Bob Rae and Mr. Ignatieff were not far behind. But again Mr. Dion was left off the list.

In 2008, there was little time between Mr. Dion’s resignation as Liberal leader and his replacement by Mr. Ignatieff, but in the brief interim Ipsos Reid found that new MP Justin Trudeau was Canadians’ favourite for the job, narrowly edging out Mr. Ignatieff and Mr. McKenna. Among Liberals, however, Mr. Trudeau placed third.

Fewer contenders, better polls

When there are fewer quality contenders in a hypothetical leadership race, the polls have been more prescient. Polls conducted by Ipsos Reid in 2001 and 2002 showed that Paul Martin had the highest ratings among those likely to run for Jean Chrétien’s job, beating out contenders like John Manley or Allan Rock. And a poll conducted in June 2012 by the firm showed Mr. Trudeau as having markedly better numbers than Mr. Rae among potential candidates to take over the party.

Polls gauging a future, hypothetical leadership race do contain useful information. But they are far from a crystal ball. Many of the names listed in these polls never ran for the leadership of their respective parties, which will undoubtedly be the case with the two surveys by Forum and Abacus. However, they do show that if Mr. MacKay ever did run in a future leadership race, he would be a serious contender. They do not show that he would win it. Indeed, considering the outcome of the 2006 Liberal leadership race, the next leader of the Conservative Party may not yet be on anyone’s radar. Fitting, perhaps, since the next leadership race could very well be held many years from now.

Éric Grenier writes about politics and polls at ThreeHundredEight.com. He is the author of the forthcoming e-book Tapping the Pulse[/i], about political polling in 2013.[/i]


Mr MacKay won a significant technical victory, over the Reform wing of the CPC, at the last Party Convention in Calgary. Many Reformers wanted a delegation vote to be 'weighted' by its population (something that would have favoured e.g. Alberta constituencies); most of the Progressive Conservatives wanted 'equal' weight, regardless of constituency size (something that favours Atlantic Canadian and Quebec constituencies); the PCs won.

That being said I'm not sure he can defeat a united right wing challenge and I still think Jim Prentice has enormous strength in all wings of the party ... but that may be wishful thinking, the triumph of hope over experience.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: George Wallace on January 29, 2014, 10:35:38
I admit that Peter MacKay is a favourite of mine, and a more charismatic personality than Stephen Harper, but he has not gone through the last decade or two without his own controversy's.  We are in for yet another case where we will be left with not the best, but the lesser of several evils, to choose from.

Such is our Canadian political atmosphere.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Remius on January 29, 2014, 10:50:00
He certainly has the charisma I think to take on Trudeau's and has more substance to him.  I'm not sure for who or what I will vote for yet but the Prime Minister's current team isn't doing it enough for me.  A refresh in leadership, maybe, would help.  It's a tough choice right now because I applaud some of the policies and positions but lament others.  The lament is currently tipping to one side however.

Plenty of time between now and then though.  Watch and shoot.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Journeyman on January 29, 2014, 14:02:55
I think that Four Horsemen will end up being John Baird, Jason Kenney, Peter MacKay, and Jim Prentice.

Baird may have the most political savvy (although he just caved and got rid of his English-only business cards.   ;) )

Kenney's domestic coverage within the portfolios of Employment/Social Development and Multiculturalism seem to be largely ignored.

McKay has had some rocky media exposure, but currently has name-brand recognition and popularity -- which can be fleeting in politics.
I personally have to give him extra points for playing rugby and having a hot wife.  :nod:

Prentice, right now, is a long-shot. I believe he's the most intelligent of this lot, but in sound-byte politics that may not count for much.  He also may have some baggage following on from his 2010 resignation.

I guess the question is, what characteristics are required to compete against Trudeau and Mulcair?  :dunno:


But hey, what do I know.  This is a world where Superbowl odds have been skewed by the winner-pick of a blind manatee (which has been correct for 6 of the past 6 Superbowls) :stars:
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on March 06, 2014, 07:00:50
There is an interesting development being reported in the business pages (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/enbridge-turns-to-jim-prentice-for-pipeline-help/article17337258/#dashboard/follows/): "Enbridge turns to Jim Prentice for pipeline help" is the headline in the Globe and Mail's Report of Business.

The Globe's story says:

     "[A First Nation leader] compared Mr. Prentice’s assignment, which is to renew talks with First Nations about possible partnership agreements with Enbridge, as being like someone “trying to give mouth to mouth” to a dying person.

     But Mr. Prentice, whose years of cabinet work on First Nation and environmental files give him high credibility in aboriginal communities, is optimistic he can make a breakthrough – he says Enbridge is ready to make “significant changes” to get there."

If, and it is a HUGE IF, Mr Prentice can pull this off ~ convince Enbridge to redesign the project in ways that will satisfy First Nations and convince First Nations that he (and through him, Enbridge) actually understands and supports their best interests ~ then his political capital will be vast, he will be a Conservative hero. If he fails, a very distinct possibility, he will be a "has been."
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Nemo888 on March 06, 2014, 08:45:06
Good luck with that. Jim “The-Dim-Apprentice” Prentice as he is known by First Nations is neither liked or respected. They think he is looking for a few Indians who want a large payout to give the project some press credibility. It is a PR campaign and changes nothing.

Baird will eventually be hamstrung because of his lifestyle. It would be cool if Canada was progressive enough that the right wing party could choose a gay leader, but I don't think we are there yet.

McKay is hands down the smartest, but he can't keep a promise to save his life. That is what will keep him out of the leaders chair. If he does get it he has the best chances of forming a government.

Kenny does not have the charisma to win a federal election. He may be the win the leadership, but only because everyone else is carrying too much baggage.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Brad Sallows on March 06, 2014, 23:50:47
>They think he is looking for a few Indians who want a large payout to give the project some press credibility.

It'll be more than "a few", but basically the payout is the only thing holding up approval.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on March 07, 2014, 09:10:18
>They think he is looking for a few Indians who want a large payout to give the project some press credibility.

It'll be more than "a few", but basically the payout is the only thing holding up approval.


I'm inclined to agree ...

I'm afraid that, in my view, anyway, First Nations' leadership is weak and venal ~ I know there are notable exceptions, many of them, but broadly and generally: weak and venal.

I'm guessing that Mr Prentice has to do two things:

     1. Find out the price of the weak, venal leaders; and

     2. Produce a package that addresses the legitimate concerns of the strong, honest leaders.

If he does that he is Captain Canada, given the potential for people avoiding Quebec like the plague for a few years.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on March 18, 2014, 17:28:31
Not directly related to the leadership, except in the sense that it will be interesting to soo who Prime Minister harper picks to head Finance and what the impact of that might be on someone's leadership aspirations, but, the media is reproting that Finance Minister Jim Flaherty is resigning from the federal cabinet (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/finance-minister-jim-flaherty-resigns-from-cabinet/article17549674/#dashboard/follows/). The effective date is not clear, but I am assuming it is immediate.

His full statement is:

Quote
Yesterday, I informed the Prime Minister that I am resigning from Cabinet. This was a decision I made with my family earlier this year, as I will be returning to the private sector.

I am grateful to Prime Minister Stephen Harper for providing me with the opportunity and responsibility to serve Canadians as their Minister of Finance since 2006, one of the longest serving Finance Ministers in Canadian history. As a government, we achieved great things for Canada and I could never have accomplished what I have as Finance Minister without the full support of Prime Minister Harper.

As I reflect on my almost two decades in politics, I am proud of the accomplishments of the governments I was part of, provincial and federal.

In my time as Finance Minister, I am proud of the work I have done to help manage the deepest economic challenge to face Canada since the depression of the 1930s and ensure Canada emerged stronger and as a recognized economic leader on the international stage.

Along with managing Canada’s performance during the global economic crisis, I am pleased our government brought forward positive measures to make Canada one of the world’s best places to do business.  I am proud to be part of a government that:
     
  • reduced Canada’s business taxes to the lowest level in the G-7;
  • reduced other taxes 160 times;
  • introduced the Tax-Free Savings Account (TFSA) and the Working Income Tax Benefit (WITB)
  • took action on four separate occasions to protect Canada’s housing market; and
  • took historical steps to strengthen Canada’s securities regulation regime.

I also made it a priority to help improve the well-being of people with disabilities. Our government has worked hard to ensure our country benefits from the talents and abilities of Canadians with disabilities. We improved accessibility through the Enabling Accessibility Fund, provided new investments for people with disabilities to join and contribute to the workforce, and helped improve access to financial independence through programs such as the Registered Disabilities Savings Plan (RDSP).

My goal was always to get Canada back on track to a balanced budget after the large deficit we agreed was necessary in Budget 2009 to combat the Great Recession and protect Canadian jobs. As outlined in Budget 2014, I followed through on that commitment. There is no doubt that Canada’s budget will be balanced in 2015.  Canada’s fiscal position is the envy of the developed world.  All Canadians can be proud of the country’s performance.

Now, I will focus on life beyond politics as I return to the private sector. I believe that I have served my country, province and constituents of Whitby-Oshawa to the best of my abilities and thank them for their continued trust and support for almost two decades. It has been an honour to serve Canadians with the Prime Minister, Cabinet and caucus colleagues and all Members of Parliament in the House of Commons.

As many of you know, I faced a health issue over this past year. I have received much support and good wishes from Canadians across the country and for that, I am thankful.   I am happy to report that I am on the road to a full recovery and the decision to leave politics was not related in any way to my health. This decision was made because it is the right one for me and my family at this time.

I would also like to thank all Canadians who expressed their support and encouragement over my years in public service. I have often said that public service is a noble calling and have encouraged young people, including my own children, to consider it as a worthy career choice.  I believe a career in the public service is the most satisfying and personally enriching career you will ever find.

I want to thank my wife Christine and our three sons for their unwavering support during my time in public office. I am lucky to have such a wonderful family.

As I begin another chapter in my life, I leave feeling fulfilled with what we have accomplished as a government and a country during one of the most challenging economic periods in our country’s history.

We live in the greatest country in the world, and I want Canadians to know that it has been my honour and my privilege to serve them.

Thank you.

Jim Flaherty
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on March 18, 2014, 18:05:49
The speculation begins: Jason Kenney; James Moore and Lisa Raitt are all being mentioned as potential Finance Ministers; ditto Joe Oliver, who has a lot a Bay Street experience, and Tony Clement, anothet veteran of the Mike Harris cabinet. Although some journalists have said John Baird, I doubt he's in play.

Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Nemo888 on March 18, 2014, 19:27:38
Only one is qualified to be a finance minister. Strange that Flaherty would abandon ship right now. Any speculation?

Jason Kenney- Philosophy degree
James Moore- Community college for business administration
Lisa Raitt- Masters in Chemistry
Joe Oliver- MBA Harvard Business School
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: ballz on March 18, 2014, 19:43:29
Only one is qualified to be a finance minister. Strange that Flaherty would abandon ship right now. Any speculation?

Jason Kenney- Philosophy degree
James Moore- Community college for business administration
Lisa Raitt- Masters in Chemistry
Joe Oliver- MBA Harvard Business School

Now that is credentialism if I've ever seen it...

Surely you do not need a Harvard MBA to realize that if you are spending more than you are making, you end up going into debt...
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Nemo888 on March 18, 2014, 20:38:41
Why on earth would we need someone with more than a community college certificate to run a G20 economy? Perhaps because we would want the most qualified individual.

Harper is an economist and has ballooned annual expenditures by 31.4% since 2006 while cutting taxes.(7% pop growth in that time) You argue tax and spend is bad, so what do you think of cutting revenues while increasing spending?
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: ballz on March 18, 2014, 20:51:25
Why on earth would we need someone with more than a community college certificate to run a G20 economy? Perhaps because we would want the most qualified individual.

Harper is an economist and has ballooned annual expenditures by 31.4% since 2006 while cutting taxes.(7% pop growth in that time) You argue tax and spend is bad, so what do you think of cutting revenues while increasing spending?

Actually, what I pointed out is that listing the candidates by their formal education (which you didn't even get right) and basically saying that "the best candidate is the one with the best piece of paper" is called credentialism.

By the argument you've presented, we don't even need to have political campaigns, press conferences, etc. Whoever holds a PhD from the most prestigious Ivy League School should just be handed the keys to 24 Sussex, let's skip all the other nonsense.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on March 18, 2014, 20:54:34
Jim Flaherty, arguably a good, solid Finance Minister is a lawyer; ditto Ralph Goodale, John Manley and Paul Martin. Michael Wilson, who was Finance Minister in the 1980s, was a Bay Street type. Good ministers are good, tough, brave leader/managers ... the qualifications are human rather than academic.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Fishbone Jones on March 18, 2014, 21:02:13
Actually, what I pointed out is that listing the candidates by their formal education (which you didn't even get right) and basically saying that "the best candidate is the one with the best piece of paper" is called credentialism.

By the argument you've presented, we don't even need to have political campaigns, press conferences, etc. Whoever holds a PhD from the most prestigious Ivy League School should just be handed the keys to 24 Sussex, let's skip all the other nonsense.

Careful ballz, careful, you'll find it hard to escape ;D
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Nemo888 on March 18, 2014, 21:07:50
This is not Minister of State for Multiculturalism or Minister of Canadian Heritage. It's Finance. I would prefer an MBA with at least a decade of experience as a CFO. If they have run their own company or firm for a few decades that would be alright as well.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: ballz on March 18, 2014, 21:18:02
That's nice.

Besides the fact that his MBA is 44 years old (how relevent is it to today's economy / business environment?) and that Finance is not exactly a hard science (is his MBA even focused on Finance?), I would like to know/hear more about/from these people and hear what they think and what their ideas are going forward before I decide that a Harvard MBA is some sort of God-card that trumps everything.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Fishbone Jones on March 18, 2014, 21:46:47
(https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi834.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fzz263%2FBMsmilies%2FOutdoors-Leisure-Sports%2FFishing%2Freeling-smiley.gif&hash=e3dbae61fd61d1931d0a5a251aafee63)

 :nod:
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Brad Sallows on March 18, 2014, 22:57:45
>Only one is qualified to be a finance minister.

The only "qualification" is appointment by the G-G.  Believe it or not, there are federal civil servants to provide the day-to-day expertise.  I suggest you get some fresh air.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Nemo888 on March 19, 2014, 00:23:34
Joe Oliver to replace Jim Flaherty as finance minister.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/joe-oliver-to-replace-jim-flaherty-as-finance-minister-1.2577648
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on March 19, 2014, 07:41:39
The rumoured appointment of Joe Oliver takes pressure off the likely leadership candidates.

Minister Oliver is a good choice: known and respected on Bay Street and in the caucus and cabinet; he holds Eglington-Lawrence, a urban Toronto riding, as close to downtown TO as the CPC can get; he has no leadership ambitions.

It's not clear that, at age 73 now, he intends to run again in 2015 but he strikes me as being physically and mentally fit.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: ModlrMike on March 19, 2014, 09:59:22
Does anyone but me think there's an even chance that Mr Flaherty's departure gives him ample time to clear the decks and marshal his forces in time for a leadership run after the 2015 election?
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on March 19, 2014, 10:11:11
Does anyone but me think there's an even chance that Mr Flaherty's departure gives him ample time to clear the decks and marshal his forces in time for a leadership run after the 2015 election?


No, I don't think so.

I think Jim Flaherty has two ambitions:

     1. Earn a few big, corporate pay cheques, because he needs to earn some big money to address some family health problems (one of his sons); and

     2. Help his wife, Christine Elliot, become Premier of Ontario, because many (most?) people think Tim Hudak cannot win.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Remius on March 19, 2014, 10:11:37
Does anyone but me think there's an even chance that Mr Flaherty's departure gives him ample time to clear the decks and marshal his forces in time for a leadership run after the 2015 election?

Doubtful.  He's 65.  If PM Harper runs (all indications is that he will), he'll stay for at least two years if not the full term.  That would put Flaherty at close to 70 and possibly 72 depending on the scenario.  While he states that health wasn't a factor, he likely won't be healthier then.

Not impossible but highly improbable.    Unless you think the CPC will lose in 2015 and Harper steps down.  But then why leave now if that were the case?
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: dapaterson on March 19, 2014, 10:38:51

No, I don't think so.

I think Jim Flaherty has two ambitions:

     1. Earn a few big, corporate pay cheques, because he needs to earn some big money to address some family health problems (one of his sons); and

     2. Help his wife, Christine Elliot, become Premier of Ontario, because many (most?) people think Tim Hudak cannot win.

Ding ding.  I wonder if even Tim Hudak thinks he can win; the last election was his to lose and he did so.  And I'm pretty confident in his ability to do it again.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: milnews.ca on April 09, 2014, 21:08:09
A development on the Jim Prentice front (http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/04/09/draft-jim-prentice-movement-urging-ex-harper-minister-to-leave-cibc-and-run-for-alberta-pc-leadership/) ....
Quote
Several current and past Conservative members of Parliament are hoping former federal cabinet minister — and potential Stephen Harper successor — Jim Prentice will jump into the race to be the next Alberta Progressive Conservative leader and premier.

Alison Redford’s recent resignation as premier and PC leader has some politicians and operatives scrambling for a saviour to rescue the party and carry on the 43-year Progressive Conservative dynasty.

Prentice is currently vice-chairman of CIBC and would take a huge pay cut if he ever left the private sector for provincial politics. As well, several Conservatives quietly believe Prentice — a former Calgary MP and senior minister in the Harper government — has his eyes on the leadership of the federal party whenever the prime minister makes his exit.

Nevertheless, the provincial “Draft Jim Prentice” movement is quickly gaining steam, as potential candidates gear up for an Alberta PC leadership vote in September ....
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: devil39 on April 09, 2014, 22:06:21
Ding ding.  I wonder if even Tim Hudak thinks he can win; the last election was his to lose and he did so.  And I'm pretty confident in his ability to do it again.

Agree completely.  He was awful and they kept him.  Glad I have left Ontario.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Remius on April 10, 2014, 10:05:49
I agree, his performance has been awful.

Heard him speak yesterday and for the first time I was at least mildly impressed.

1) He's not letting himself be pushed around by Wynn's libel threat and is calling her bluff.

2) He wants to scrap the green energy act.  That alone will likely get my vote.

3) His million jobs plan may be ambitious but at least he HAS a plan to offer.

Ontario is a mess right now and I don't think that Wynn or Horvath can fix it (mostly because I think they truly believe that nothing is wrong).  In fact I think they'll make it worse.   
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on November 15, 2014, 18:10:04
Stephen Maher speculates on the CPC leadership in this article which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Ottawa Citizen:

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/national/Maher+Jason+Kenney+could+prime+minister+before+next+election/10382419/story.html
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Jason Kenney could be prime minister before next election

STEPHEN MAHER, POSTMEDIA NEWS

11.13.2014

On Friday, Stephen Harper surpassed Brian Mulroney, becoming the sixth longest-serving prime minister in our history.

On Jan. 24 he will begin his 10th year at 24 Sussex Drive. There’s reason to wonder if he will have an 11th, or if he will step aside to let someone else lead his party into next October’s election.

A decade is a long time to be prime minister. Jean Chretien and Mulroney both packed it in around that mark, as did Britain’s Tony Blair and Australia’s John Howard.

Voters eventually get tired of leaders, and rivals get ambitious.

Harper is careful not to overexpose himself, and there are no signs that anyone in his party is scheming to unseat him, but the exasperation of those who don’t like him is starting to be a palpable force for change, and he is carrying heavy baggage that another leader could cast off.

If Harper stays at the helm, the next campaign will be like cycling uphill with Mike Duffy sitting on the handlebars. If somebody else is doing the pedalling, then whatever is in Duffy’s inbox will be much less troubling to the re-election prospects of Conservatives.

Harper is not telegraphing a career change, but he wouldn’t, would he? The minute a sitting prime minister starts to look like he’s thinking about taking a walk in the snow, his aides start polishing their CVs, and it’s harder to instill the kind of fear that makes premiers, bureaucrats, mayors and aboriginal leaders treat the office with due deference.

Close observers note that Harper has recently taken to wearing contact lenses, a sign that he’s getting into campaign mode.

On the other hand, he’s been travelling overseas more, which is something leaders often do before they hang up their guns.

Some say that Harper can’t abide the idea of losing to Justin Trudeau, and needs to avoid the next election. Others say he won’t back down from a fight.

Nobody can figure out what his next job might be, and he sure seems to like being prime minister, but Laureen might like him to see more of her and the kids, and after four elections and 13 years as a party leader, the family might deserve a quieter life.

I’ve been watching the guy as closely as I can since 2003 — not a particularly rewarding pursuit — and I have little idea of what motivates him, aside from a desire to reduce taxes, shrink the federal government and thwart his rivals.

Other Harper characteristics — his information-controlling ways, his sometimes-over-the-top attacks on opponents, critics, supreme court justices and other innocent bystanders — can be understood tactically, as a means to an end. None of it necessarily reveals his character, beyond a certain ruthlessness.

But I think he might leave fairly early in the new year, handing the reins to somebody who has a better chance of winning the next election: Jason Kenney.

Harper is enjoying a bump in the polls  — the first in a long while — which actually might make it easier for him to declare victory and announce a succession contest.

If he runs, Kenney would win that race and be prime minister by the time the snow melts,  govern for the summer and lead the party to the polls in October.

He is formidable — intelligent, deep and hard-working — an excellent communicator who can scrum endlessly, switching back and forth from French to English.

Unlike Harper, he seems like a happy warrior, ready to engage with critics in a friendly way.

Since Bob Rae left Parliament, only Harper and NDP Leader Tom Mulcair show similar communication skills coupled with policy depth.

And Kenney is the most important organizer in his caucus. He understands ethnic politics better than anyone in the country.

The party is his for the taking, and his former staffers are in key positions throughout the Harper government. They are often the smartest people in the room, small-c conservative intellectuals who aren’t afraid to grub for votes.

It’s likely safe to assume that a politician as ambitious as Kenney wants to run the country, and I think he does, but nobody ever suggests he is plotting against the boss.

Others might seek the job — Rona Ambrose, Maxime Bernier, Tony Clement, Peter MacKay, James Moore and Lisa Raitt — but nobody but (maybe) them thinks they could beat Kenney.

He’s such a good politician that he’d be a formidable campaigner, but many doubt that he can win the country. He is more socially conservative than Harper, and may not be willing to dodge a damaging fight over abortion, as Harper has done.

And there is a blank space where his private life should be, an X factor. He is an unmarried, devout Catholic, which might make it harder for some Canadians to identify with him.

Our longest serving prime minister — 21 years at 24 Sussex — was lifelong bachelor Mackenzie King, but to become prime minister these days, you have to be a ready-for-TV product, as Trudeau is.

You need to tell Canadians a story about yourself.

Kenney may have a story to tell, but he can’t get started until Harper takes a walk in the snow.


I share Mr Maher's lack of insight into Prime Minister Harper's intentions, but he has said, several times, that it is his intention top make Canada a more Conservative country and I wonder if he thinks there is a better chance of that if Mr Kenny, not he, is at the helm.

Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: dapaterson on November 15, 2014, 22:23:39
Re: Colin Kenny.  Confirmed bachelors are so interesting.  (Right, John Baird?)
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: SeaKingTacco on November 15, 2014, 23:58:08
Do you mean Jason Kenny?  ;)

Peter Mackay was a confirmed bachelor until two years ago. That worked out pretty well for him...
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: dapaterson on November 16, 2014, 00:37:32
Wrong Kenny on my part.  Colin is, as Frank magazine puts, an avid heterosexualist.

John (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:John_Baird_(Canadian_politician)#LGBT_category) & Jason (http://www.vice.com/en_ca/read/is-canada-run-by-a-gay-mafia), on the other hand...
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: GAP on November 16, 2014, 10:12:22
Depending on how well things turn out in Alberta, Prentiss is a viable contender, but only after a few years as premier.........

or as an alternative to Prentiss.....Brad Wall....
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on June 19, 2015, 08:18:52
I think that, sadly for Canada, Jim Prentice is, probably, totally "out," now ... and he's probably not unhappy to be "out."

But I'm less sure about John Baird: bailing out when he did seems, to me, now, to have been a good strategic move. Let's assume that the polls are trending towards a predictable finish ... in the two years after the 2011 election many people, me included, saw a solid majority in the CPC's future (2015); now the betting is that there will be a minority and it may just as easily be a NDP minority as a CPC one. In any event, given anything but a shocking, massive majority I guess that Prime Minister Harper will resign as party leader in 2015/16.

John Baird may be well positioned to make a comeback: he's taken another new job, according to this (month old) article which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail, but it seems to be another "part time," strategic advisor job, one from which he could take a leave of absence to contest the CPC leadership:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/streetwise/john-baird-joins-law-firm-bennett-jones/article24620006/
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John Baird joins law firm Bennett Jones

SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Jeff Gray
The Globe and Mail

Published Tuesday, May 26, 2015

Law firm Bennett Jones LLP says it has hired former foreign minister John Baird, who abruptly quit politics in February.

The firm says Mr. Baird – who had also served as an Ontario cabinet minister under former Tory premier Mike Harris, where he earned a reputation for feisty Question Period performances – will serve as a senior adviser.

Mr. Baird joins a large team of former political heavyweights at Bennett Jones that includes former Bank of Canada governor David Dodge, prime minister Jean Chrétien’s former political adviser Eddie Goldenberg, former Canadian ambassador to the United States Allan Gotlieb, former Supreme Court justice Jack Major and former deputy prime minister Anne McLellan.

The firm also recently announced the hiring of Leo de Bever, former head of the massive Alberta Investment Management Corp. pension fund, as a senior advisor.

In a statement, Mr. Baird said he would be offering “strategic counsel” to the firm and its foreign and domestic clients, but will not be “making representations to the Government of Canada.”

“In particular, I am excited to continue my interest in Canada-China relations, the Bennett Jones office in Beijing being a further draw for me to the firm,” Mr. Baird said in the statement.

It is not the first new job Mr. Baird has taken since leaving public office. In April, it emerged that he was taking a gig as an advisor to Hong Kong billionaire Richard Li, son of one of the wealthiest men in Asia, on international matters.

Barrick Gold Corp. has also hired him to sit on its international advisory board, and Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd. nominated him to serve as a director.

Mr. Li has Canadian citizenship, as does his father, 86-year-old business magnate Li Ka-shing, who controls Calgary-based Husky Energy and is well known in Vancouver for redeveloping waterfront land used for the 1986 World’s Fair.


As to Mr Baird's sexual orientation ... it seems to me that Premiers Wynne (ON) and MacLauchlan (PEI) have "broken trail" for a prime minister in, shall we say, an alternative domestic situation.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Remius on June 19, 2015, 09:23:33
I think for the most part, his sexual orientation is irrelevant.  Most people just want good leadership.  Even for those (ad there are some) that have a problem with that orientation, they are most likely to overlook it if they get strong leadership out of the deal.   
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Underway on June 19, 2015, 09:27:19
As to Mr Baird's sexual orientation ... it seems to me that Premiers Wynne (ON) and MacLauchlan (PEI) have "broken trail" for a prime minister in, shall we say, an alternative domestic situation.

Wait.. what?  Why are the conservatives not advertising this (subtly).  Are they that progressive that its a non-issue or are they afraid of how some of their base might react?  Seems to me that would really help them out against some of the attacks that they are under all the time.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Remius on June 19, 2015, 10:06:33
Wait.. what?  Why are the conservatives not advertising this (subtly).  Are they that progressive that its a non-issue or are they afraid of how some of their base might react?  Seems to me that would really help them out against some of the attacks that they are under all the time.

Or maybe like most people, they don't give a rat's a**.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Underway on June 19, 2015, 10:25:48
Or maybe like most people, they don't give a rat's a**.

I do belive I said that...
  Are they that progressive that its a non-issue ....  

But I don't think that's entirely the case.  Conservatives never ever fail to take an advantage and bludgeon their foes with it.  So either they may not think it's an advantage (as it exposes internal party divisions, like the abortion issue would) or most likely Mr. Baird was not comfortable with campaigning on his sexuality as that's not the classy Canadian way.  He's about policies and politics.  So con's definately outweigh the pros.

I will say this though, if he does run for CPC leadership or Ontario provincial leadership it will become an issue story.  Just because of the stereotype that exists of conservatives in the media and public perception.

Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: jollyjacktar on June 19, 2015, 11:46:54
I think that, sadly for Canada, Jim Prentice is, probably, totally "out," now ... and he's probably not unhappy to be "out."

Do you really want a leader that forces an election on the populace unnecessarily and when things go pear shaped he has a tantrum, takes his ball and runs home in a sulk.  I'm not so sure...  he is just as bad as Iggy was and acted the same too.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Pencil Tech on June 19, 2015, 14:15:42
Hmmm, just heard James Moore's not seeking re-election. Baird, MacKay, Moore...they think they're going to lose the election.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Thucydides on June 19, 2015, 18:45:37
Wait.. what?  Why are the conservatives not advertising this (subtly).  Are they that progressive that its a non-issue or are they afraid of how some of their base might react?  Seems to me that would really help them out against some of the attacks that they are under all the time.

Classical Liberals are not advertising this (subtly or not) because in the Classical Liberal universe it simply does not matter. So long a person keeps his/her personal issues to themselves then it is none of our business. the problem is the Progressive meme of making everything "political", so should Mr Baird choose to come back for a leadership bid, the unsavoury attention focused on his personal life will be from those busybodies who choose to make your and my personal business *their* business.

For what its worth, I thought Mr Baird had done an outstanding job during his time in parliament, and would look forward to see him coming back for another tour of public service.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: cupper on June 19, 2015, 19:58:27
You have to wonder why Harper didn't take a walk in the snow like so many of his predecessors?

Now grant you he was probably thrown off by how late winter lasted so he may have thought he had more time than he really did, but still...
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Retired AF Guy on June 19, 2015, 20:36:51
Hmmm, just heard James Moore's not seeking re-election. Baird, MacKay, Moore...they think they're going to lose the election.

I heard about this on CBC Radio just an hour or so and apparently Moore, who is from BC, has a son who is handicapped and there may have been some medical issues that have popped up. They didn't go into any details, but the person being interviewed thought that was the reason and nothing to do with Moore jumping ship.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: dapaterson on June 19, 2015, 20:42:14
I heard about this on CBC Radio just an hour or so and apparently Moore, who is from BC, has a son who is handicapped and there may have been some medical issues that have popped up. They didn't go into any details, but the person being interviewed thought that was the reason and nothing to do with Moore jumping ship.

#RideMeWilfred suggests otherwise.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: cupper on June 19, 2015, 21:45:34
#RideMeWilfred suggests otherwise.

Comme sa

https://twitter.com/dmatthewmillar/status/595250804120035328
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on August 22, 2015, 13:43:48
I was going to post this deadline (http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/Doug+Ford+would+consider+running+replace+Stephen+Harper/11307710/story.html): Doug Ford would consider running to replace Stephen Harper at the Conservative helm in the On the lighter side (https://army.ca/forums/index.php/topic,111236.0.html) [of politics] thread, except that I suspect that Doug Ford would have a fair amount of support ... so it's not funny, is it?

(https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.torontolife.com%2Fdaily%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2011%2F02%2FDoug-Ford.jpg&hash=64a2ac5087fc6920cde37c813deea221)
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: dapaterson on August 22, 2015, 13:48:43
I was going to post this deadline (http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/Doug+Ford+would+consider+running+replace+Stephen+Harper/11307710/story.html): Doug Ford would consider running to replace Stephen Harper at the Conservative helm in the On the lighter side (https://army.ca/forums/index.php/topic,111236.0.html) [of politics] thread, except that I suspect that Doug Ford would have a fair amount of support ... so it's not funny, is it?

(https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.torontolife.com%2Fdaily%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2011%2F02%2FDoug-Ford.jpg&hash=64a2ac5087fc6920cde37c813deea221)

Depends.  If you're a Liberal or a Dipper, it's a laugh a minute.  "Accused former drug dealer with crackhead brother wants to take over law and order political party".
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Brad Sallows on August 22, 2015, 17:35:35
Jason Kenney is working like a man who wants the job.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on August 22, 2015, 18:13:38
Jason Kenney is working like a man who wants the job.


Agreed, Rona Ambrose also, in my opinion,
remains a likely contender.

(https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.parl.gc.ca%2FParliamentarians%2FImages%2FOfficialMPPhotos%2F41%2FKenneyJason_CPC.jpg&hash=ab4944d5645a9b9d93f70cced443a98c) (https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.campaignlifecoalition.com%2Fshared%2Fmedia%2Fcandidates%2FAmbroseRona_CPC.jpg&hash=218d0f9c50ab6f1c779793288bffc3ba)

John Baird, Peter MacKay and James Moore have, it seems, taken themselves
off the ballot, for the moment ... but when/if Prime Minister Harper resigns
they could all come back ...

(https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fbackofthebook.ca%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2015%2F02%2Fjohn-baird.jpg&hash=f8d73cfe33ea036ab644189120cd0f4a) (https://openparliament.ca/media/polpics/_thumbs/177_1_jpg_142x230_autocrop_q85.jpg)(https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.parl.gc.ca%2FParliamentarians%2FImages%2FOfficialMPPhotos%2F41%2FMooreJames_CPC.jpg&hash=906aa9e4ab88afb041ba49dc4b00efa5)

Two outsiders who might have leadership ambitions are Kelli Leitch and
Erin O'Toole. Both appear to be popular in the party and are out campaigning
for others ~ always a sign of potential leadership ambitions.

(https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fpm.gc.ca%2Fsites%2Fpm%2Ffiles%2Fmedia%2Fministers%2Fthumbnails%2Fkellie_leitch.jpg&hash=98023a0d17910f2d044a6e03d4e90916) (https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Feveritas.rmcclub.ca%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2012%2F09%2F19894-ET.jpg&hash=9f1d6777e3d778604605168941437643)

Edit: typos
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: jollyjacktar on August 22, 2015, 18:36:24
John Baird, there was some talk a couple of weeks ago about revelations coming to light of why he took off in such a rush.  But since then, Nada...
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Jed on August 22, 2015, 18:53:40
How well can Rona Ambrose provide tough, Prime Ministerial, leadership especially considering an international aspect?
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Retired AF Guy on August 22, 2015, 20:00:57
I was going to post this deadline (http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/Doug+Ford+would+consider+running+replace+Stephen+Harper/11307710/story.html): Doug Ford would consider running to replace Stephen Harper at the Conservative helm in the On the lighter side (https://army.ca/forums/index.php/topic,111236.0.html) [of politics] thread, except that I suspect that Doug Ford would have a fair amount of support ... so it's not funny, is it?

(https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.torontolife.com%2Fdaily%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2011%2F02%2FDoug-Ford.jpg&hash=64a2ac5087fc6920cde37c813deea221)

He may have some support in Toronto ... outside of southern Ontario I doubt it.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: PuckChaser on August 23, 2015, 01:30:49
If he's got the Toronto support, you can build outside GTA support. Traditionally the GTA has been tough to crack, if the Tories make inroads there without giving up the rural/west vote, they're right back on top.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Blackadder1916 on August 23, 2015, 17:37:56
It's not the first time Doug Ford has considered running for leadership of a party. http://army.ca/forums/index.php/topic,113313.msg1336644.html#msg1336644

However, Mariomike's post back in November languished (in a larger omnibus thread "Politics in 2014) with no response or comment.

ERC noted that he considered putting it in the "lighter side" thread, I assume, because he thought most would consider it to be outlandish that Mr. Ford would have a serious shot at the CPC leadership.  I would have been (still am) among those who so thought.  But then, I'm not from Toronto, unfamiliar with its municipal politics nor do I have a favourable opinion of Mr. Ford.  I will admit that my opinion is based mainly on his connection to the antics of his much more famous brother, who, to be honest, was a more successful politician (at least, until he self-destructed).  Would any of us give serious consideration to a one term municipal councillor (who had the advantage of name recognition when he succeeded his brother in that ward) and failed mayoral candidate (who only sought election because of his brother's illness) if he hadn't been put in the national spotlight because of crass behaviour.

While being adept at retail politics, and the Fords were (Rob especially), I don't think that necessarily translates to the coalition building required of a national (or provincial) party leader.

It would be the same as electing someone leader of a party (regardless of qualifications) because they have the name recognition of their daddy who used to be the leader.  Alright, got me!  But you see where that leads to.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: MCG on August 23, 2015, 19:38:19
A Ford at the helm of the CPC would likely redivide the right.  We could be back in The '90s.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Ostrozac on August 23, 2015, 19:58:41
Yeah, Doug Ford as federal conservative party leader would be an odd choice. Assuming that the next conservative convention uses the same "one riding -- one point" system that the 2004 convention did, whichever leader is elected requires nationwide support, not just massive support from their base area. Does Doug Ford even speak French? Or have a profile out west (besides being the brother of Rob)? I doubt it.

Now, Doug Ford, Premier of Ontario? That is a much more likely scenario.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: milnews.ca on August 23, 2015, 20:23:25
If he's got the Toronto support, you can build outside GTA support. Traditionally the GTA has been tough to crack, if the Tories make inroads there without giving up the rural/west vote, they're right back on top.
But on the other hand, someone like him could also be seen by the rural base as "just another Toronto guy", too.  Interesting choice to throw out there, indeed.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: dapaterson on August 23, 2015, 21:44:11
But on the other hand, someone like him could also be seen by the rural base as "just another Toronto guy", too.  Interesting choice to throw out there, indeed.

Being "just another Toronto guy" hasn't seemed to hurt the incumbent Conservative party leader.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on September 12, 2015, 18:39:18
Hmmmm ... I see that John Baird is out helping CPC candidates on the campaign trail ...

                    (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/COtooW2XAAAX6AY.jpg)
                    John Baird helping MP Dr Kellie Leitch'

                         ... and schmoozing with Ontario's Liberal Finance Minister Charles Souza at the Toronto International Film Festival ...

                                 (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/COuwAw1WwAAJUm_.jpg)

Is he testing the waters?


Edit: punctuation
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: milnews.ca on September 12, 2015, 20:48:56
Is he testing the waters?
One wonders how much of the old-style Reformist base he could carry.  Or if enough of the rest were OK, would that matter?
Being "just another Toronto guy" hasn't seemed to hurt the incumbent Conservative party leader.
He may have been born in TO, but he didn't appear to spend much time there after starting university before heading west.  I think his haters hold more than just THIS against him  ;D
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on September 25, 2015, 09:49:44
While I think we should focus on the most likely contenders for the next Conservative leader (Jason Kenney, Rona Ambrose, John Baird, etc) we need to note that there are some attractive newcomers who are building their own support base by helping other candidates.

Dr Kellie Leitch is one of them ...

     (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CPspUHHUcAEeNUl.jpg)

          ... seen here helping fellow CPC candidate (but one with much less "star power") Ted Opitz ...

And Veterans' Affairs Minister (and RCAF veteran) Erin O'Toole ...

     (https://scontent-ord1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xaf1/v/t1.0-9/540444_907952262630149_6970638771186754905_n.jpg?oh=9ed5b8400007599bb971b2528b15bacc&oe=5696B6D8)

          ... who is another one of those CPC "energizer bunnies," in his case, whenever he sees a veteran.

Neither Dr Leitch nor Mr O'Toole are quite "ready," yet, to contest for the leadership (both need to improve their French and serve in mores senior portfolios) but both will be only be in their '50s in 2025 when the next leader, the one after Harper will need replacing.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Lumber on September 25, 2015, 10:01:54
Neither Dr Leitch nor Mr O'Toole are quite "ready," yet, to contest for the leadership (both need to improve their French and serve in mores senior portfolios) but both will be only be in their '50s in 2025 when the next leader, the one after Harper will need replacing.

But I thought Harper was stepping down on October, 20th?  :nana:
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on September 25, 2015, 10:29:35
But I thought Harper was stepping down on October, 20th?  :nana:


In my opinion, Prime Minister Harper is, already, past his best before date and I think (just hope?) he knows that. I hope that even if he wins, perhaps especially if he wins a majority, he will want to retire as one of the few (ever) prime ministers to have won four mandates (King had six, but ...) and become a Conservative elder statesman and make some serious money on Bay Street.

If he wins a minority and decides to retire quickly he will make life difficult for Messers Mulcair and Trudeau, both of whom have vowed to "take down" a Stephen Harper government. By convention, all parties have a gentlemen's agreement to not force an election while one of the major parties is having a leadership race. Such leadership races normally last for about six months ... let's say that Prime Minister Harper wins a minority on 19 Oct and, on 20 Oct, as you suggest, Lumber, he announces his retirement, maybe even going so far as to resign his own seat and appoint an interim leader. What do the LPC and NDP do? Keep their promise and throw the Tories out or be traditional gentlemen and let the CPC elect their new leader and then force an election? Choice two would, of necessity involve one or the other party supporting both a Throne Speech and a budget. Either choice will be criticized by someone.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Lumber on September 25, 2015, 10:51:44

If he wins a minority and decides to retire quickly he will make life difficult for Messers Mulcair and Trudeau, both of whom have vowed to "take down" a Stephen Harper government. By convention, all parties have a gentlemen's agreement to not force an election while one of the major parties is having a leadership race. Such leadership races normally last for about six months ... let's say that Prime Minister Harper wins a minority on 19 Oct and, on 20 Oct, as you suggest, Lumber, he announces his retirement, maybe even going so far as to resign his own seat and appoint an interim leader. What do the LPC and NDP do? Keep their promise and throw the Tories out or be traditional gentlemen and let the CPC elect their new leader and then force an election? Choice two would, of necessity involve one or the other party supporting both a Throne Speech and a budget. Either choice will be criticized by someone.

I was more implying that he would lose on 19 Oct, and as promised, he would step down. But, if he won a minority government, I can't see him stepping down. I haven't read his biography so I don't have a great feel for his character. But I think that the amount of heat Harper must be feeling would have a significant affec ton him. So many Canadians are not just being pro-LPC or pro-NDP, or even anti-CPC; so many Canadians are being anti-Harper. In my short life, I've not seen such resentment for an individual Prime Minister/Party Leader (did the Trudeau haters hate him this much?). So, given the anathema toward Harper, even a minotiry government win for Harper (and this is where I'm making an assumption) would feel like a real personal victory. This would give him, IMO, a surge of personal pride and determination, and keep him from stepping down.

Once more unto the breach.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: jollyjacktar on September 25, 2015, 11:06:49
The difference between Trudeau years and now is the access the public have to congregate via the internet.  We're all much more connected today and able to make groups of like minded individuals from far and wide at almost an instant.  That wasn't available 35 years ago.  Some of it is a vicious circle, people disagree with Mr. X or Ms. Y, this fans the flames, which draws in more people, more angst, more flames, repeat ad naseam.  Almost a perpetual motion cycle.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Chris Pook on September 25, 2015, 12:19:56
How well can Rona Ambrose provide tough, Prime Ministerial, leadership especially considering an international aspect?

Jed I just saw your post.  Three names came to mind.

Golda Meir.  Indira Gandhi.  Maggie Thatcher.  And I shouldn't forget Benazir Bhutto.

A woman PM, of any party, would do me just fine.  (So long as it wasn't Hedy Fry).
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Chris Pook on September 25, 2015, 12:30:39
With respect to Harper continuing ....

I believe/sense that part of the Harper's problems have been associated with legitimacy.  His opponents have never accepted him as a legitimate governor.  The amount of political capital he has to expend on an issue is exacerbated by that notion.  Consequently, I believe, that where folks like Trudeau-Pere and Obama feel/felt free to rule by diktat Harper has selected his battles.

The F35 is one.  Perhaps picking a fight with NDHQ over downsizing was another.  Spending money during a recession at the insistence of the opposition.  Pulling out of Afghanistan as a result of a parliamentary vote..... there are others.

It would not surprise me if Harper wins this election he will take it as a form of validation, a declaration of legitimacy.  After that he may well decide to step down in a year or two and hand off to someone else after a well-planned transition.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Brad Sallows on September 25, 2015, 12:34:03
>The difference between Trudeau years and now is the access the public have to congregate via the internet.

Exactly.  Social media and internet publishing have several fold increased the volume of opinion, the range it covers, the speed at which it spreads, and the capability to comment anonymously.  Facebook launched in early 2004; Twitter launched in mid 2006.

I hypothesize that the last feature - anonymous or pseudonymous commentary - has corroded civil standards of public discourse, and that widespread sharing of unattributed malicious vituperations has desensitized and emboldened people to increasingly do so openly.  That has in turn been a multiplier of the resentment of the elite factions displaced and inconvenienced by changes, and many of those people are surprisingly (to me) arrogant about their sense of entitlement to be in charge "for the greater good".
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Chris Pook on September 25, 2015, 15:04:31
 :nod:
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Thucydides on September 25, 2015, 19:40:02
>The difference between Trudeau years and now is the access the public have to congregate via the internet.

Exactly.  Social media and internet publishing have several fold increased the volume of opinion, the range it covers, the speed at which it spreads, and the capability to comment anonymously.  Facebook launched in early 2004; Twitter launched in mid 2006.

I hypothesize that the last feature - anonymous or pseudonymous commentary - has corroded civil standards of public discourse, and that widespread sharing of unattributed malicious vituperations has desensitized and emboldened people to increasingly do so openly.  That has in turn been a multiplier of the resentment of the elite factions displaced and inconvenienced by changes, and many of those people are surprisingly (to me) arrogant about their sense of entitlement to be in charge "for the greater good".

From studying history I am not surprised at all. The French nobility felt just fine until they were dragged from their beds by screaming mobs during the French Revolution, and other regime collapses right up to the fall of the USSR and its dissolution in the early 1990's happened rapidly and almost without warning for the elites, who are insulated in their bubbles from much of the economic hardship they dole out to us plebes and inside an echo chamber where outside opinions do not register. (Robert Kaplan mentions this in a different context in many of his books, the "ground truths" he observes as a traveler are simply outside of view of the diplomatic corps and government officials enclosed in their embassies).

So they are arrogent since they believe that they are the people entitled to make decisions for the rest of us, and disconnected becasue they rarely feel the effects of their decisions. When "The People" turn out against them (such as the American TEA Party movement, the growth of European Natavist parties or the shift of the Canadian electorate away from the traditional "Laurentian consensus"), they are literally blindsided and quite angry that anyone would dare to disagree with them.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: MCG on September 27, 2015, 01:51:35
If he wins a minority and decides to retire quickly he will make life difficult for Messers Mulcair and Trudeau, both of whom have vowed to "take down" a Stephen Harper government. By convention, all parties have a gentlemen's agreement to not force an election while one of the major parties is having a leadership race. Such leadership races normally last for about six months ... let's say that Prime Minister Harper wins a minority on 19 Oct and, on 20 Oct, as you suggest, Lumber, he announces his retirement, maybe even going so far as to resign his own seat and appoint an interim leader. What do the LPC and NDP do? Keep their promise and throw the Tories out or be traditional gentlemen and let the CPC elect their new leader and then force an election? Choice two would, of necessity involve one or the other party supporting both a Throne Speech and a budget. Either choice will be criticized by someone.
I suppose they could throw the Tories out but argue there should be no election on the notion that one of the two parties can command the confidence of the house .... and so convention, if upset, would be blamed on the GG for deciding to go back to election.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on October 02, 2015, 13:50:07
                         (https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fpics.livejournal.com%2Fblue_angel_123%2Fpic%2F00009rgb&hash=38baf91a54bb28e33703182cb0dbe804)

Now, Chris Alexaneder is, was anyway, often touted as CPC leadership materiel, and, today, he's made an announcement about "measures to stop child and forced marriage, and other barbaric cultural practices against girls and women." Nothing really odd about that, he is the Minister of Citizenship and Immigration so it falls, tangentially, into his domain ... other than that it's pretty thin gruel.

But look at the picture of the announcement:

(https://scontent-ord1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xal1/t31.0-8/12091211_1106500889360245_4348404543488788375_o.jpg)

It's taken in his electoral HQ in Ajax but Dr Kellie Leitch, who is the Minister of Labour and Status of Women (so the problem is also, maybe more, in her domain) is there with him. Since the perceived problem is, arguably, more hers than his, then I wonder why he announced it. Is he is trouble? Is his re-election in some doubt? Dr Leitch has been pretty well used in helping weaker candidates ... is that what Mr Alexander is, now, a weak candidate?
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: jollyjacktar on October 02, 2015, 13:52:12
The news was only showing the good Dr. speaking of this new snitch line.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Remius on October 02, 2015, 14:15:10
                         (https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fpics.livejournal.com%2Fblue_angel_123%2Fpic%2F00009rgb&hash=38baf91a54bb28e33703182cb0dbe804)

it. Is he is trouble? Is his re-election in some doubt? Dr Leitch has been pretty well used in helping weaker candidates ... is that what Mr Alexander is, now, a weak candidate?

His performance on P&P may have been the catalyst as well as the whole refugee debacle.  He became the face of that.  I'm not sure he has recovered or will recover from it.  Maybe they see something we don't.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on October 02, 2015, 14:42:56
His performance on P&P may have been the catalyst as well as the whole refugee debacle.  He became the face of that.  I'm not sure he has recovered or will recover from it.  Maybe they see something we don't.


Indeed ... I thought the general (public and media) reaction to the P&P thing was overblown, but I also thought that Mr Alexander was tired and on edge, and I thought then, and still think, now, that something more than the refugee crisis had to have been wrong to rattle a seasoned diplomat. He seemed and still seems "off his game," if that's the right expression.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: PPCLI Guy on October 02, 2015, 17:27:33

Indeed ... I thought the general (public and media) reaction to the P&P thing was overblown, but I also thought that Mr Alexander was tired and on edge, and I thought then, and still think, now, that something more than the refugee crisis had to have been wrong to rattle a seasoned diplomat. He seemed and still seems "off his game," if that's the right expression.

I suspect it is the whole grimy process called an election.....
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on October 02, 2015, 17:46:08
I suspect it is the whole grimy process called an election.....

Or is it, I wonder, how this election campaign is being managed by this campaign team? Mr Alexander is a demonstrated, proven smart guy, he knew politics was a rough and dirty business before he entered the lists; but Stephen Harper and his team are not like many others ... perhaps one needs a stiffer spine than even a "front line" ambassador in a war zone brings to the "game."
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: milnews.ca on October 02, 2015, 17:53:05
Or is it, I wonder, how this election campaign is being managed by this campaign team? Mr Alexander is a demonstrated, proven smart guy, he knew politics was a rough and dirty business before he entered the lists; but Stephen Harper and his team are not like many others ... perhaps one needs a stiffer spine than even a "front line" ambassador in a war zone brings to the "game."
If that's the case, it says more about the nature of the game (and the coach?) and how it's being played than the otherwise reasonably strong victim thereof.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on October 02, 2015, 18:01:00
If that's the case, it says more about the nature of the game (and the coach?) and how it's being played than the otherwise reasonably strong victim thereof.

Maybe, but other potential CPC leaders, like Jason Kenny and Rona Ambrose and newer potential contenders Kellie Leitch and Eric O'Toole (and, of course, "outsiders" like John Baird and Peter MacKay) are campaigning or have campaigned under Prime Minister Harper's (harsh?) highly restrictive regime and they seem to have fared and to be faring much better ... but, maybe I'm reading too much into it. I like Chris Alexander, I hope he does well and stays in politics, he's the sort of fellow we need, I think.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: milnews.ca on October 02, 2015, 19:38:58
Maybe, but other potential CPC leaders, like Jason Kenny and Rona Ambrose and newer potential contenders Kellie Leitch and Eric O'Toole (and, of course, "outsiders" like John Baird and Peter MacKay) are campaigning or have campaigned under Prime Minister Harper's (harsh?) highly restrictive regime and they seem to have fared and to be faring much better ...
We'll have to see they handle it if they get hit with any hardballs of the scale of the refugee issue.

.... maybe I'm reading too much into it. I like Chris Alexander, I hope he does well and stays in politics, he's the sort of fellow we need, I think.
Concur 100%.  Guys like him can contribute a lot even if they don't make it through "leader selection", so to speak.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on October 13, 2015, 12:50:08
I'm not touting Dr Leitch for the leadership, but I cannot help but notice her own (unselfish) energizer bunny support for other CPC candidates ...

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CRNThM7XAAM8N4-.jpg)
Helping Julian Fantino ~ who is in danger of being defeated

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CRNS1AeXAAEuGja.jpg)
Helping King-Vaughn candidate Konstantin Toubis

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CRJamsdXAAARRk1.jpg)
Campaigning with candidate Ninder Thind in Brampton West

These are the kinds of things that make you friends in the whole party apparatus. They are very good things for leadership hopefuls to be doing.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: suffolkowner on October 13, 2015, 13:10:33
I truly hope Kellie Leitch isn't even an option. I would need some serious policy agreement to vote Conservative with Leitch at the helm. Never been a fan of Chris Alexander either. Jason Kenney and Rona Ambrose, I think I can get behind much easier.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on October 13, 2015, 13:42:45
I truly hope Kellie Leitch isn't even an option. I would need some serious policy agreement to vote Conservative with Leitch at the helm. Never been a fan of Chris Alexander either. Jason Kenney and Rona Ambrose, I think I can get behind much easier.


Interesting ... my perception is that Leitch is a social liberal and a fiscal conservative, whereas Ambrose is a social and a fiscal moderate but she is also the closest the CPC has to a political libertarian and Kenney is a social and a fiscal conservative. How would you feel about Erin O'Toole, also a young newcomer, and John Baird?
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: suffolkowner on October 13, 2015, 14:12:17
Well for me with Kellie Leitch its more a personal-visceral thing. But perception as you say is what this game is played on. I can't say I've formed an opinion on Erin O'Toole but am definitely not a fan of Baird. I'd like to think that my decision is based on policy but can't deny the effect of persona as well. The labels liberal,conservative I have never been able to make fit with my own views consistently. A fault in my own use of logic perhaps? Or the labels themselves?
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Altair on October 13, 2015, 14:13:22
As long as it's not Pierre poilievre.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Jed on October 13, 2015, 14:30:01
I am leaning towards Ambrose or Kenny. Maybe Otoole but I could be easily moved with facts and logic.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Lumber on October 13, 2015, 14:37:26
As long as it's not Pierre poilievre.

Ditto.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Blackadder1916 on October 13, 2015, 16:31:57
. . . potential CPC leaders, like Jason Kenny and Rona Ambrose and newer potential contenders Kellie Leitch and Eric O'Toole (and, of course, "outsiders" like John Baird and Peter MacKay) are campaigning or have campaigned under Prime Minister Harper's (harsh?) highly restrictive regime and they seem to have fared and to be faring much better ... but, maybe I'm reading too much into it. I like Chris Alexander,  . . .

The names most mentioned on this thread are all currently (or recently) serving MPs.  While they may have greater name recognition with the general population they also carry an association with the current Conservative leadership (i.e., Harper) and, while the CPC will not have its *** handed to it as in 1993, there may be residual "Harper stink" should any of these MPs be the party leader in a following election, particularly if it comes soon (one to two years) after the upcoming contest.  One possibility that hasn't yet been discussed in this thread is a "Cadillac candidate" in the vein of Brian Mulroney (or Pierre Karl Péladeau, or for those who look south for political infotainment - Carson, Fiorina or Trump) whose only personal electoral experience prior to assuming the party leadership in 1983 was a failed attempt for that post in 1974.   Is there anyone on the horizon who fits that bill?  While most on these means will not have experience with the backroom politicking of the CPC (come on ERC, tell us the truth) there are likely high level business leaders and provincial political operators who may be wondering how they can contribute to the future of the party.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: GAP on October 13, 2015, 16:37:17
When it comes to a new CPC leader I think few are going to dismiss the proven skills of Brad Wall......
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: dapaterson on October 13, 2015, 16:46:35
There are only two possible choices:

(https://powerplantmen.files.wordpress.com/2012/07/tweedledee-tweedledum-2.jpg) aka (https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.urnews.ca%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2011%2F09%2FFordBrothers.jpg&hash=56c8b18714dd5751ffaa9e4eaa8ba44e)
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on October 13, 2015, 16:54:56
Canada has not been kind to provincial politicians who jumped into he federal arena, so, I suppose, not Brad Wall or Bernard Lord.

Celebrity/charisma works for some: witness the Trudeaus, Père et Fils.

We have no tradition of soldiers, not even really, really PR savvy ones like Rick Hillier, jumping into politics.

Big City mayors? John Tory (Toronto) or Brian Bowman (Winnipeg) ... possible, but unlikely, in my opinion.

How about people who left, earlier? I think Jim Prentice is both a) tarnished goods, now, and b) probably tired of politics. How about Monte Solberg?

My guess is still that it will be a serving or very recently retired MP. Someone who retired before this election, like John Baird, could be drafted back by the party's grassroots. I agree that, for a serving MP, being seen as being in Stephen Harper's "inner circle" might be a drawback in some party circles, but, remember, please that Stephen harper has, and has earned, the admiration of his party for ending the split and creating the CPC and winning three successive government. Being part of Team Harper is something that many CPC leadership candidates will announce with pride within the party.

I don't have a favourite ... yet. It was Prentice, but I think he's out of contention ...
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on October 13, 2015, 16:59:47
There are only two possible choices:

(https://powerplantmen.files.wordpress.com/2012/07/tweedledee-tweedledum-2.jpg) aka (https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.urnews.ca%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2011%2F09%2FFordBrothers.jpg&hash=56c8b18714dd5751ffaa9e4eaa8ba44e)


I figured some (never me!) would mention the Fords and the CPC in the same post ...  :boke:

In my opinion the only possible reaction is: (https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fstatic.tvtropes.org%2Fpmwiki%2Fpub%2Fimages%2Fscream.jpg&hash=18ff92d42dea7075c4b14711c9457615)
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Altair on October 13, 2015, 17:07:16
When it comes to a new CPC leader I think few are going to dismiss the proven skills of Brad Wall......
Wouldn't Brad walls comments on equalization payments alienate him in Quebec and Atlantic canada, and probably ontario as well?
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: PuckChaser on October 13, 2015, 17:14:48
Likely, but the Tories have proven they don't need Atlantic Canada to win elections, and Ontario is too proud to consider itself a have not province. Wall seems like a dark horse candidate for the next leader.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: PPCLI Guy on October 13, 2015, 17:17:04
How about Melissa Blake from Fort McMurray?
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Fishbone Jones on October 13, 2015, 17:23:26
Likely, but the Tories have proven they don't need Atlantic Canada, or Quebec, to win elections, and Ontario is too proud to consider itself a have not province. Wall seems like a dark horse candidate for the next leader.

TFTFY ;)

As far as Ontario being too proud to consider itself a have not province. Currently, the Wynne Liebrals will steal, cheat and lie to get the maximum dollars from the Feds and the taxpayer. They have no shame, let alone pride. They are constantly bitching out the Feds for not getting their 'fair' share. Whereas The Hairdo, IF he wins, will be more than happy to do as his mentor McWynnety wants.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on October 13, 2015, 17:43:23
How about Melissa Blake from Fort McMurray?


She is Métis and a Quebec native, but I wonder: is she bilingual? Some people may not like it but a national party leader must be bilingual.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Jed on October 13, 2015, 17:45:00
TFTFY ;)

As far as Ontario being too proud to consider itself a have not province. Currently, the Wynne Liebrals will steal, cheat and lie to get the maximum dollars from the Feds and the taxpayer. They have no shame, let alone pride. They are constantly bitching out the Feds for not getting their 'fair' share. Whereas The Hairdo, IF he wins, will be more than happy to do as his mentor McWynnety wants.

A new label to encompass these types of individuals " McWynnety Whiner" Let's give them a big WAAAAA....
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Ostrozac on October 13, 2015, 22:35:19
a national party leader must be bilingual.

There's one politician that comes to mind when I think of "bilingual" -- Jean Charest is currently between jobs, and isn't he a Mulroney Conservative at heart? I wonder if he'd throw his hat in the ring? He's 57, Paul Martin became PM at 65, Jean Chretien at 59.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: dapaterson on October 13, 2015, 22:42:31
There's one politician that comes to mind when I think of "bilingual" -- Jean Charest is currently between jobs, and isn't he a Mulroney Conservative at heart? I wonder if he'd throw his hat in the ring? He's 57, Paul Martin became PM at 65, Jean Chretien at 59.

He's already been party leader for a federal party - and grew his caucus by 1000%.  I doubt he'd come back.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on October 17, 2015, 20:48:48
Jeffrey Simpson, who really misses the old, quasi-Liberal, Red-Tory, Progressive Conservative Party, wonders, in this article which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail where Stephen Harper's party goes without Prime Minister Harper:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/jeffrey-simpson-where-does-the-harper-party-go-without-harper/article26845940/
Quote
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Jeffrey Simpson: Where does the Harper Party go without Harper?

JEFFREY SIMPSON
The Globe and Mail

Published Saturday, Oct. 17, 2015

The Stephen Harper years are over.

Either his Conservative Party will win a small plurality of parliamentary seats in Monday’s election, but then be defeated in the House of Commons, or his party will win fewer seats than the Liberals and hand over power. Either way, time will soon be up for the Prime Minister.

In defeat, Mr. Harper could theoretically stay on. But he has already been leader of the Opposition. After nine years as prime minister, who would want that job again?

Even if Mr. Harper wanted to stay, he has few friends in the party. Former prime minister Brian Mulroney had legions of supporters in the parliamentary caucus and party at large who would lie on broken glass for him. Mr. Harper has almost none.

Mr. Harper, far more than anyone else, created this Conservative Party. He shaped, organized, galvanized and directed it. It could rightly be, therefore, called the Harper Party. Where does the Harper Party go without Harper?

Maybe – and who can be certain? – the leader of the Harper Party had trouble imagining anyone else at the helm. He, therefore, spit into the political winds by trying to win again after nine bruising years in power. Hubris, after all, has walked many a leader to the political grave.

Once it became clear that Mr. Harper would fight on, possible successors went their separate ways: Jim Prentice to Alberta politics, Peter MacKay and John Baird to the private sector. No one of comparable stature took their place; no candidate of leadership potential was recruited in this election. The party’s already shrivelled talent bank was never weaker than in this campaign.

Which means that when the party thinks, as it perforce must, about the Harper Party post-Harper, it will be obvious that Defence Minister Jason Kenney has spent years preparing himself to win the leadership and is the obvious front-runner. But as time goes on, many Conservatives will ask: Do we want a social conservative from Calgary as leader?

More fundamentally, Conservatives will or should ask: Do we want something like the Harper Party to take us into the future, or do we want something broader, more akin to the old Progressive Conservatives, a party that at least gives greater space and comfort to more moderate conservatives?

For now, the answer to that fundamental question would be that the Harper Party without Harper would carry on much as before, but perhaps with a gentler style of leadership.

Moderate Conservatives for some years now have been like the lost tribes of Israel: inspired by an idea but wandering, lost in the wilderness, waiting for a messiah. They have been so marginalized that their influence is nil, their active membership in the party risible, their private gripes standing in inverse relationship to their share of power. They dream of recovering lost influence, but it is only a dream.

Conservatism, if we can call it an “ism,” has shifted rightward in Ontario, in Alberta, in the federal Conservative Party and most obviously in the United States. The shift has been proceeding apace for so long that it is difficult to see how it can be reversed.

Loss of power, however, can have a way of forcing serious debates on the losing party. Those debates will start, privately at first and then in public, as the Conservative Party considers its uncertain future, sans Stephen Harper.

He will be gone, having left a forceful legacy on his party and the country. A Canadian political party will continue in his wake, representing a coalition of people who think of themselves as conservatives because of how they view the role of the state, the obligations of citizens, the role of religion, the sense of the country’s past and the place of Canada in the world.

The Harper Party made many philosophical judgments that were aberrant to true conservative thinking. It forgot that the job of a conservative is to “conserve,” which means the physical heritage of the environment. It neglected to think of society as an organic whole and played wedge politics where politically useful.

It forgot a conservative credo that power should be exercised with caution and checked where necessary, and instead concentrated power in one man’s hands as never before, seeing enemies everywhere, butting heads with the courts and officers of Parliament, and focusing on the party “base” rather than on society as a whole.


I really, really think Jeffrey Simpson misses the point, the while bloody point, about the party that Prime Minister Harper created.

The old PCs are dead and gone. No one cares, not even one tiny iota what Babs McDougall and Lowell Murray (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/notebook-concerned-pcers-and-the-dan-gagnier-dilemma/article26840101/), estimable folks though they may be, think any more. The old PCs, the Red Tories and even the Blue Tories like Michael Wilson are gone ... replaced by Conservatives who are not Liberals waiting their turn, as they were, essentially, under George Drew, John Diefenbaker, Robert Stanfield and Brian Mulroney.

The new Conservatives have leadership potential ~ better in my opinion than all but one, maybe two Liberals, and those Liberals are not leading the party now ~ and they will be looking to move Canada to the centre-right and their right of centre party to the same place. But make no mistake, it will be centre-right, not just the LPC in disguise like the Red Tories were.

On this issue Jeffrey Simpson is right out to lunch. (if you have a birdcage then you have good use for today's Opinion page of the Good Grey Globe.)
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Brad Sallows on October 17, 2015, 21:34:27
That mirrors my thinking.  The Liberal establishment wants the Conservative party to be like them, only a little slower and less connected to Big Law and Big Business.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on October 20, 2015, 12:49:01
...
Nice to see a future Prime Minister win his first election - Chris Alexander.


He has an uphill struggle now: he lost his seat, last night, to Mark Holland of the Liberals.

Jason Kenney and Rona Ambrose held on to their seats, as did (relative) newcomers Kellie Leitch and Erin O'Toole, and "dark horse" but potential contenders Denis Lebel, Michelle Rempel, Pierre Poilievre, Candice Bergan and Maxime Bernier.

I see Rob Nicholson as interim leader ...
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on October 20, 2015, 12:54:08
This statement (http://www.conservative.ca/statement-from-john-walsh-president-of-the-conservative-party-of-canada/) is from John Walsh, President of the Conservative Party of Canada:

     Statement from John Walsh, President of the Conservative Party of Canada

     OCTOBER 20, 2015

     I have spoken with Prime Minister Stephen Harper, he communicated to me a request to initiate a number of actions pursuant to my responsibilities as laid out in the constitution of the Conservative Party of Canada.

     I thanked the Prime Minister for his leadership on behalf of our party. Stephen Harper has changed Canada for the better, having built a durable, national Conservative movement focused on building a fair, more prosperous and globally significant Canada.

     The Prime Minister indicated that he will continue to sit as a Member of Parliament and asks that a process to both select an interim leader and initiate the leadership selection process in our party begin immediately.

     First, I am communicating to the newly elected House of Commons caucus their responsibility to elect an interim leader as soon as is possible.

     Second, I will be convening a meeting of the National Council to create a Leadership Election Organizing Committee (LEOC) to set out the rules, dispute resolution mechanism and logistics related to the selection of a new leader.

     Third, I am tasking Dustin van Vugt, the Executive Director of the Conservative Party of Canada, to initiate a transparent process to review the 2015 campaign.

     While the election result was not what Conservatives across Canada hoped and worked so hard for, we respect the outcome of our democratic process. I want to take this moment to thank the hundreds of thousands of Conservative activists in every
     part of Canada who volunteered their time, money and ideas, allowing our party to serve our country as government since 2006.

Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: ModlrMike on October 20, 2015, 15:34:17
I wonder if the party will be pressured to having the leader come from Ontario or Quebec.

I think that the main reason the press and the Laurentian Elites dislike Mr Harper is that he identifies as being from the west. How dare an Albertan seek to be PM? Doesn't he (she) know that right exists solely for those from central Canada? etc etc
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on October 20, 2015, 16:56:54
Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail is an article about the forthcoming CPC leadership contest:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/tories-face-question-of-harpers-replacement/article26881918/
Quote
(https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fbeta.images.theglobeandmail.com%2Fmedia%2Fwww%2Fimages%2Fflag%2Fgam-masthead.png&hash=19ff3553db0adc5a5af34a8cb80569c3)
After Tory election debacle, who will replace Stephen Harper as leader?

STEVEN CHASE
CALGARY — The Globe and Mail

Last updated Tuesday, Oct. 20, 2015

The leaderless Conservative Party will have an interim chief before the Trudeau government lays out its agenda in a Throne speech.

Defeated Conservative leader Stephen Harper resigned from the helm of the party Monday although he remains Prime Minister until the handover to Justin Trudeau takes place.

          (https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fstatic.theglobeandmail.ca%2Fec3%2Fnews%2Fpolitics%2Farticle26881917.ece%2FALTERNATES%2Fw620%2Fpo-elxn-tories19nw1.JPG&hash=fd42b463d71497d344b2d4217eb9804d)
           Conservative Leader Stephen Harper leaves a polling station after casting his ballot in the federal election in Calgary, Alta., on Monday,
          October 19, 2015.                                                                                                           (DARRYL DYCK/THE CANADIAN PRESS)

Conser‎vative Party president John Walsh has issued a statement urging the shrunken 99-seat Tory caucus to select an interim leader “as soon as is possible.” Mr. Walsh said he will convene a meeting of the party's National Council to set out the rules for choosing a leader.

Mr. Harper will continue to sit as an MP and has asked that “a process to both select an interim leader and initiate the leadership selection process in our party begin immediately,” Mr. Walsh said.

After nearly a decade in power, the Conservatives now find themselves back in the political wilds.

The party will shortly be leaderless, with a reduced bench in the Commons lacking many of the seasoned veterans who left politics in recent years including Peter MacKay, John Baird, James Moore and the late Jim Flaherty.

They’ve got a lot of rebuilding ahead of them.

With major TV networks projecting a majority Liberal government late Monday evening, Mr. Harper has conceded defeat and is making plans for life after politics after nine years and eight months in the Prime Minister’s Office.

The Conservative Party announced Monday evening that Mr. Harper is quitting as leader, with party president John Walsh releasing a statement saying he’s been instructed to ask the newly elected Tory caucus to appoint an interim leader and arrange for a leadership race.

The biggest question facing the Tories, of course, is who takes over from Mr. Harper?

There’s no simple answer for the Conservative Party, which might as well be called the Harper Party because it is a creation of the Calgary MP who has put his indelible stamp on the political organization he co-founded in 2003. Plus, there’s no heir apparent chomping at the bit to take over like, for instance, Paul Martin in 2003 when Liberal Jean Chrétien quit power.

Yes, there is Jason Kenney, the 47-year-old Calgary lieutenant of Mr. Harper’s. He’s built a strong support base among immigrant groups across this country as the Conservative ethnic outreach czar. He’s more socially conservative than Mr. Harper but has proven himself to be media savvy and adept at winning allies over the years.

People close to Mr. Kenney say he’s ambivalent about whether he should try to succeed Mr. Harper. Still, he’s distinguished himself as one of the Conservative Party’s most competent cabinet ministers and people familiar with his thinking say he would consider the job only if he feels no sufficiently competent replacement could be found.

Asked Monday night whether he would run for the Conservative leadership, Mr. Kenney replied: “All those questions are for another day.”

He did however offer frank criticism of the Conservative campaign, saying the Tories got the tone wrong in how they talked to Canadians. “I think our obvious weakness has been in tone, in the way we’ve often communicated our messages. I think we need a Conservatism that is sunnier and more optimistic than we have sometimes conveyed.”

Mr. Kenney refused to lay blame at Mr. Harper’s feet alone.

“We have to take collective responsibility for that.”

On the Red Tory side of the party, Mr. MacKay – the other co-founder of the Conservative Party, is still a potential candidate despite his much publicized retirement from politics this year.

An Atlantic Canadian Conservative candidate told The Globe and Mail that he and other Tory candidates received a request from Mr. MacKay for their phone numbers – a query they took as a sign that the former Nova Scotia politician has not ruled out a comeback.

One challenge for Mr. Kenney and Mr. MacKay, should they consider running, is whether they can disassociate themselves from the Harper era, having served in his cabinet for so long.

Another name bandied around is Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall, who has repeatedly begged off when asked about whether he might seek the job.

The departure of Mr. Harper threatens to reopen the rift in the 12-year-old party between the rock-ribbed Reform Conservatives and the centrist Red Tories who merged in 2003 before going on to win office in 2006. This could play a big role in the coming leadership race as factions struggle for control.

One former Conservative cabinet minister, speaking on background, said the next leader has to be someone who can unite the two sides of the Conservative Party and that, in his mind, means either Mr. Kenney or Mr. Wall.

Could the Tories reach into the past for a new leader? There’s talk of former Quebec premier Jean Charest as a candidate. Before he governed Quebec, Mr. Charest helped rebuild the Progressive Conservative Party that eventually joined forces with the Canadian Alliance to form the Harper Conservatives.

And Conservative Party sources say Ontario’s Tony Clement and Kellie Leitch, who both served in the Harper cabinet, have been considering leadership runs.

A Liberal majority government, as projected by TV networks Monday night, means the Tories don’t need to rush in choosing a new leader because another election is four years away.


One of the advantages of a Liberal majority government is that the CPC does have time to stop, think and rebuild under a new leader. One would hope that there might be a policy convention before ~ some months before ~ the leadership contest. (Consider, for example, that Bob Rae spent nearly two full years (May 2011 to April 2013) as interim leader of thew Liberals while the party reconsidered positions and goals and then chose their new leader.)
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Altair on October 20, 2015, 18:29:54
Ben Mulrooney

Fight fire with fire CPC
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: daftandbarmy on October 20, 2015, 20:35:16
Ben Mulrooney

Fight fire with fire CPC

How about finding someone with a pulse next time, CPC? :)
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: whiskey601 on October 20, 2015, 20:58:21
Dr. Kelly Leitch would be a good choice as an interim leader,  if she could be persuaded to put down the scalpel. Very, very bright person, great sense of humour, works well under pressure and encourages subject matter experts to shine. Definitely not a control freak, and would not surround herself with people like that.

It is time for CPC v1.0 to be deactivated and removed as a supported product. It had a successful run, it was simply outclassed by better marketing by competitors. There is lots of time to rebuild and recover the electorate next go around, and they better have a Katniss (think Jennifer Lawrence of Hunger Games stock) leading the team. Someone inspirational, talented, and quite correctly, someone who projects energy with a fit and healthy lifestyle, positive and determined disposition, and emotion. No more robots.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Brad Sallows on October 20, 2015, 21:12:54
I sympathize with the desire for inspirational leadership, but I'm getting quite effing tired of the widespread narrow-minded bigoted disapproval and open prejudice against people who are by nature reserved, withdrawn, shy, low-affect, competent, confident, disinclined to talk everything over ad nauseum, etc.  It is bordering on being a public epidemic of harassment and it is pissing me off.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on October 20, 2015, 21:37:29
The obvious candidates:

(https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.pm.gc.ca%2Fsites%2Fpm%2Ffiles%2Fmedia%2Fministers%2Fthumbnails%2Fkenney_0.jpg&hash=01b1f5a9df6dace7e598191faa73f2a9) (https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.pm.gc.ca%2Fsites%2Fpm%2Ffiles%2Fmedia%2Fministers%2Fthumbnails%2Fambrose_0.jpg&hash=788c6a08eb515985220a1c92bba563bb)
                 Jason Kenney                     and               Rona Ambrose
                                               Both senior ministers
                                              Both re-elected in 2015


To recently "retired" senior Conservatives:

(https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fstatic1.squarespace.com%2Fstatic%2F51dabbe5e4b0a4195e575ebe%2Ft%2F551be28ae4b0f74d74c5c407%2F1427890827511%2F&hash=f42b974bec2cd48d39c7f0dd6d36cb87) (https://openparliament.ca/media/polpics/_thumbs/177_1_jpg_142x230_autocrop_q85.jpg)
                 John Baird                  and     Peter MacKay
                        Neither seems really unavailable

And two newcomers who have performed well in cabinet:

(https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fpm.gc.ca%2Fsites%2Fpm%2Ffiles%2Fmedia%2Fministers%2Fthumbnails%2Fkellie_leitch.jpg&hash=98023a0d17910f2d044a6e03d4e90916) (https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fpm.gc.ca%2Fsites%2Fpm%2Ffiles%2Fmedia%2Fministers%2Fotoole.jpg&hash=9dc700b97168f215e186934919df5045)
                   Kellie Leitch                     and                   Erin O'Toole

And my choices for interim leader:

(https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.campaignlifecoalition.com%2Fshared%2Fmedia%2Fcandidates%2FNicholsonRob_CPC.jpg&hash=24b4cd913a132185db1566c138aeb40a) (https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fpm.gc.ca%2Fsites%2Fpm%2Ffiles%2Fmedia%2Fministers%2Fthumbnails%2Fclement_0.jpg&hash=fc533f795cfc4cd2161477bbb4195e1a)
       Rob Nicholson      or             Tony Clement

The CPC is not short of talent.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: mariomike on October 20, 2015, 21:51:15
I was going to post this deadline (http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/Doug+Ford+would+consider+running+replace+Stephen+Harper/11307710/story.html): Doug Ford would consider running to replace Stephen Harper at the Conservative helm in the On the lighter side (https://army.ca/forums/index.php/topic,111236.0.html) [of politics] thread, except that I suspect that Doug Ford would have a fair amount of support ... so it's not funny, is it?

(https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.torontolife.com%2Fdaily%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2011%2F02%2FDoug-Ford.jpg&hash=64a2ac5087fc6920cde37c813deea221)

Doug Ford to run for Conservative Party leadership? 
http://www.torontosun.com/2015/10/20/doug-ford-to-run-for-conservative-party-leadership

"Ford is one of the names being bandied about to replace defeated Conservative Party leader Stephen Harper."

"A day after the Conservative loss, Ford said his phone was ringing non-stop about a possible leadership campaign."
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Altair on October 20, 2015, 23:01:09
Stolen from another site

Quote

What Happens Now?

The Lion in Winter

British conservative commentator Tim Montgomerie divides conservatives into three camps he identifies as ‘Classical Liberals’, ‘Nationalists’ and what he calls ‘the Freedom Party’ but, I’ll call them the ‘Reactionaries’. 

I think it’s a fairly accurate analysis of the forces inside conservative parties around the world. 

The Tory fate this election, much like James Goldman’s famous portrayal of Henry II leaves us with an aged King near the end of his reign and three sons – our aforementioned conservative tribes – looking to succeed him.

Classical Liberals encompasses most of what we used to call the old PC Party. Montgomerie describes them as fiscally conservative but more inclined to use higher revenues and surpluses on public services. They want to reform the social safety net, not deconstruct it. They’re culturally pluralist, socially liberal and have a strong multilateralist streak internationally. (e.g. Bill Davis, Brian Mulroney, Brad Wall, John Tory)

Nationalists - as described by Montgomerie - are fiscally conservative, more culturally integrationist on issues like immigration, more likely to use revenues and/or surpluses to cut taxes and more inclined to business friendly economic policies and are suspicious of international institutions. (e.g. Mike Harris, Stephen Harper 2006-11, Peter MacKay, Ralph Klein, David Cameron)

Reactionaries - as described by Montgomerie - want to deconstruct the safety net, radically cut taxes, are climate skeptics, strong international unilateralists, socially and culturally conservative and are skeptical of any use of state power in the economy. (e.g. Rob Ford, the Tea Party, Stockwell Day, Stephen Harper 2011-2015, UK Independence Party)

Obviously, within these different groups there are varying degrees of right and left as well. Davis would be on the left of the Classical Liberal, Wall would be closer to the right. Latter stage Harper is a pretty mild Reactionary, the Tea Party is fairly radical version of the same. The main force of the argument being that they have more in common with each other than with the other tribes.

The Wars of the Roses

Handicapping any leadership race requires an examination of the following facts. While Classical Liberals likely have the greatest appeal with the Canadian electorate, they’re also the smallest contingent inside the party. Over the course of the Harper years, fewer and fewer of them have been inclined to stay involved in the Party and, while their might be a large number of non-Party members who could buy memberships and vote as party members in favour of a candidate, they’re also the least likely to do so.

I will say this. In my experience inside the Party, while Classical Liberals tend to be the smallest group of operatives, they also tend to be the most talented.

Everyone who isn’t a conservative, thinks that reactionaries make up the largest constituency in the Party. They don’t. They are, by far, the loudest. There’s a temptation in every leadership to appeal to these voters because they’re the easiest to motivate and the most responsive to wedge issue politics. In the era of the political convention, they were the easiest to ignore constituency because they didn’t go to Delegate Selection Meetings and didn’t go to conventions. 

Somebody, I will flat out guarantee, is going to pander to this group hard. Look for somebody to press a reactionary G-spot on pro-life issues like abortion or physician-assisted suicide. Another big bugaboo for this group at the federal level is the CBC. That might be a cheap pander for one of the non-reactionary candidates looking to peel off votes on subsequent ballots.

Nationalists are the largest group in the Party but they’re also the least cohesive. You can’t win without them, but they also won’t back a single candidate. The winning candidate is the one most likely to break off the biggest chunk of these voters. 

Wars are Moral Contests

My political science professor once said that the central question that every voter, politician, political theorist and political journalist is trying to answer: Cui Bono? – Who benefits?

The way this campaign ended, the clear loser is the far right of the Conservative Party. If ever there was a campaign targeted at motivating them and winning on their values, it was this one. It has been rebuked by the electorate, and those things associated with it are toxic to the other parts of the Tory electorate. That’s particularly true because of who they lost to. Certainly no one can argue that Stephen Harper lost this election because he sold out to the middle.

However, the Party finds it harder to stay angry at the right than it does at the middle and the worst thing that you can be called in any Tory leadership is a “Liberal”. Believe it or not, there are actually parts of the conservative base that find it easier to be called ‘racist’ and ‘homophobic’ than ‘Liberal’.

Yeah, I know, that part pisses me off too. 

That means that, if you’re on the Classical Liberal wing of the Party, you have to find issues where the Party’s mainstream and the electorate’s mainstream overlap and just try not to talk about anything else. 

Shorter leadership benefits the change agents who show the greatest difference from the old regime. Longer leadership benefits the people with ideological similarities to the old regime who can successfully motivate the Party’s hard right wing into fearing change more than losing to the Liberals.

The Princes in the Tower

All this leads to the question: who succeeds Stephen Harper? 

Well, most Tories will agree that three candidates are guaranteed locks to run. They would be Jason Kenney, Kellie Leitch and Maxime Bernier. Kenney’s been prepping this run for a couple years. Leitch has been setting the ground with her persistent touring during the election campaign. 

Bernier isn’t running because he necessarily believes he can win but he wants to get back on to the front bench and he’ll want to ensure more issues get debated that sheer electoral competitiveness.

It’s also, by the way, a good idea for the Tories to have a francophone in the race. 

The early attention is going to be on who’s considering running but hasn’t made up their mind. Some focus is going to be on a couple women in Lisa Raitt and Rona Ambrose. If even one of them gets in, it’s a statement about how fluid the race is perceived to be. 

The two big wild cards are Peter MacKay and Brad Wall. MacKay left the federal scene back in May. His wife recently gave birth to their second child. There was an assumption that he stepped down to spend time with his family and take his first real break from politics in 18 years. 

But whenever I talk to MacKay people the line I get back is “The Party still has a leader”. It’ll be interesting to see what happens when that’s no longer the case. MacKay has some baggage from his time as Defence Minister, particularly the use of a SAR helicopter to pick him up and get him to an event. However, recent evidence has emerged that the use of the helicopter may have been ordered by the PMO.

For whatever reason, MacKay still has an emotional pull for a lot of Tories. That’s not something the others enjoy. Tories just seem to like him.

Wall has more issues than MacKay. His name recognition is lower and he has no organization immediately available outside of Saskatchewan. But he’s probably got more things going for him than the other candidates including no connection to the Harper regime and experience running a government. Wall’s concern though is similar to a Jon Huntsman in the 2012 Republican primary or Vic Fedeli in the 2015 Ontario PC Leadership – in a fair universe, he’s probably the candidate that should win. But politics is the ultimate unfair universe. Also, he continues to claim he’s not interested. I’ve talked to those who think he’s serious. I’ve talked to those who think he’s trying to get drafted. Not sure who I believe.

Both have the greatest potential to be the “not Kenney” candidate. If the other candidates get priced out of the market – which could easily happen – it could come down to one, or both, of these gentlemen against Jason Kenney. 

Court Jester Factor

I don’t think Doug Ford is serious about running. I think he likes being asked. There were no guarantees that he could have won the Ontario PC leadership if he’d run. There are certainly no guarantees that he’d even be competitive in a federal leadership because of the lack of organization outside the GTA.

One thing is for certain, the media loves the Ford circus. The attention that it pays to Fords actually gives them more influence than they’re capable of wielding. Notice that every time they’ve tried to exert their influence in a non-municipal election, they’ve failed miserably. 

The Party can deal a further blow to a potential Ford candidacy if it puts measures in place that severely limit the abilities of candidates to self-fund. 

Black and White Knights

I did some calling around today and a Jean Charest candidacy is a real thing. I’m trying to figure out how. 

With the scandals that swirled around the end of Charest’s tenure as Premier of Quebec, I’m shocked that anyone thinks the Liberals wouldn’t eviscerate him as a candidate. But, that having been said, he has many of the same brand benefits Wall has. He has little or no connection to the Harper regime, he’s run a government and he’s from the Party’s more moderate wing. Working against Charest is his age, particularly against Trudeau.

His fundraising and organization network could still surprise.

The name I was most shocked to come across this morning – and I’m not sure that I actually believe – is Mark Mulroney. True, the middle Mulroney brother, has been making some of the right political moves lately. He raised some cash for John Tory, he’s on the board of Toronto’s Luminato Festival and chaired the Gala Committee for the National Ballet.

He’s also the head of Equity Markets and a Managing Director at the National Bank of Canada – as his day job. 

If he wanted it, and we really have no indication whether he does, he’d have no trouble raising the money necessary. The problems would come from the fact that he’s never held political office before, or even run. That means he doesn’t have an organization to speak of in a political sense. Also, Tory voters are a little different, they’re less likely to look favourably on someone going right into the big chair. 

But, hey, it’s not like the Liberals would have a leg to stand on if they said he only got where he is because of his name…

Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Chris Pook on October 20, 2015, 23:04:12
The obvious candidates:

(https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.pm.gc.ca%2Fsites%2Fpm%2Ffiles%2Fmedia%2Fministers%2Fthumbnails%2Fkenney_0.jpg&hash=01b1f5a9df6dace7e598191faa73f2a9) (https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.pm.gc.ca%2Fsites%2Fpm%2Ffiles%2Fmedia%2Fministers%2Fthumbnails%2Fambrose_0.jpg&hash=788c6a08eb515985220a1c92bba563bb)
                 Jason Kenney                     and               Rona Ambrose
                                               Both senior ministers
                                              Both re-elected in 2015


To recently "retired" senior Conservatives:

(https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fstatic1.squarespace.com%2Fstatic%2F51dabbe5e4b0a4195e575ebe%2Ft%2F551be28ae4b0f74d74c5c407%2F1427890827511%2F&hash=f42b974bec2cd48d39c7f0dd6d36cb87) (https://openparliament.ca/media/polpics/_thumbs/177_1_jpg_142x230_autocrop_q85.jpg)
                 John Baird                  and     Peter MacKay
                        Neither seems really unavailable

And two newcomers who have performed well in cabinet:

(https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fpm.gc.ca%2Fsites%2Fpm%2Ffiles%2Fmedia%2Fministers%2Fthumbnails%2Fkellie_leitch.jpg&hash=98023a0d17910f2d044a6e03d4e90916) (https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fpm.gc.ca%2Fsites%2Fpm%2Ffiles%2Fmedia%2Fministers%2Fotoole.jpg&hash=9dc700b97168f215e186934919df5045)
                   Kellie Leitch                     and                   Erin O'Toole

And my choices for interim leader:

(https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.campaignlifecoalition.com%2Fshared%2Fmedia%2Fcandidates%2FNicholsonRob_CPC.jpg&hash=24b4cd913a132185db1566c138aeb40a) (https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fpm.gc.ca%2Fsites%2Fpm%2Ffiles%2Fmedia%2Fministers%2Fthumbnails%2Fclement_0.jpg&hash=fc533f795cfc4cd2161477bbb4195e1a)
       Rob Nicholson      or             Tony Clement

The CPC is not short of talent.

Got any personable young women with tolerable social conservative inclinations, strong fiscal inclinations, speaks unaccented english and hails from Quebec?
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Altair on October 21, 2015, 07:11:29
Interesting rumbling from the Conservative camp that I was not expecting.

For all of the talk of the CPC and their large war chest, and how they would be ready for another election right away, rumor has it that the party is in debt.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on October 21, 2015, 08:26:37
Got any personable young women with tolerable social conservative inclinations, strong fiscal inclinations, speaks unaccented english and hails from Quebec?


Well, Chris, there are:

(https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fblogues.cyberpresse.ca%2Flaporte%2Ffiles%2F2010%2F09%2F9074.jpg&hash=d3217f73e441222b590f51041b040e73) (https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cihofm.com%2Fpublic_upload%2Fimages%2Fdave%2Foctnov14%2Fthumbnails%2Fsylveiboucher-450x300-000000.jpg&hash=236a8be274a0533001f0c3128e6db215)
                                       Sen Josée Verner                                                      and                                          Sylvie Boucher
                                   Who would, presumably                                                                                                Just re-elected
                                   have to resign from the                                                                                             in a Quebec City riding
                            Senate and win a HoC seat if she
                                   won the Party leadership   

Both are real longshots ... I think the CPC needs to recognize that it's firm base is Alberta, broadly, and in the big city suburbs and "small town Canada," especially in Ontario.

Look at: Richmond, BC (http://www.richmond.ca/home.htm), Red Deer (http://www.reddeer.ca/), Saskatoon (https://www.saskatoon.ca/), Simcoe (http://www.simcoe.ca/about) and Orangeville (http://www.orangeville.ca/); these and La Bauce (http://www.destinationbeauce.com/en/home/) and the area around Quebec City and places like Hampton, NB (http://www.townofhampton.ca/) are where the Conservative spirit lives and where Conservative values must be redefined. But the real base of the CPC is in 'New Canada,' West of the Ottawa River and the next leader must be "at home" there.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on October 21, 2015, 09:07:32
Stolen from another site


Others potential contenders mentioned in the article Altair copied (without attribution  :tsktsk: ):*

(https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.campaignlifecoalition.com%2Fshared%2Fmedia%2Fcandidates%2FBernierMaxime_CPC.jpg&hash=b357aa83f7ff6e2d786d300c2c875af4)   (https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fsheaf1.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2011%2F06%2FBrad-Wall.jpg&hash=1d7660c82f5a083911fa2439354474f0)   (https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fmichaelmurray.ca%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2015%2F02%2FFord-tough-guy.jpg&hash=b9fad747e5cb81ad26cf9e1c40497214)
     Maxime Bernier      and           Brad Wall            and,                                    even Doug Ford
who, I agree will almost       who I, personally,                         who some conservatives will want but who, fortunately,
certainly be a candidate    would favour, but who,                     has zero (degrees Kelvin) chance of leading the CPC
                                                 I think, will sit it out


____
* I know, posting from a phone makes things harder
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: mariomike on October 21, 2015, 09:39:19
Doug got 330,610 votes in a municipal election running against two popular contenders.

I understand DoFo Jr. "has zero (degrees Kelvin) chance of leading the CPC". But, I wonder how many votes he would get in a federal election, if he did run.


Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: PuckChaser on October 21, 2015, 09:51:18
Doug got 330,610 votes in a municipal election running against two popular contenders.

I understand DoFo Jr. "has zero (degrees Kelvin) chance of leading the CPC". But, I wonder how many votes he would get in a federal election, if he did run.

Enough to be a MP, for sure.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: jollyjacktar on October 21, 2015, 10:14:21
 
      Doug Ford who some conservatives will want but who, fortunately, has zero (degrees Kelvin) chance of leading the CPC

Even they need a Donald Trump type distraction ...
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on October 21, 2015, 10:19:25
Even they need a Donald Trump type distraction ...


Doug Ford can be that, for sure, and his candidacy might deprive some others (Jason Kenney? or self-described libertarian Rona Ambrose?) of the hard right support which might be needed ... a spoiler, in other words.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: ModlrMike on October 21, 2015, 10:53:24
I still think the "old Canada" factor will continue to be the issue. Brad Wall might not suffer as much as others from it, but any new Conservative leader from Alberta will face the same fear and loathing from the Laurentian Elites and the complicit press that Mr Harper did.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on October 21, 2015, 11:19:25
I still think the "old Canada" factor will continue to be the issue. Brad Wall might not suffer as much as others from it, but any new Conservative leader from Alberta will face the same fear and loathing from the Laurentian Elites and the complicit press that Mr Harper did.


That's one of the reasons I have both Leitch (http://barrie.ctvnews.ca/conservative-kellie-leitch-re-elected-in-simcoe-grey-1.2617853) and O'Toole (http://www.thestar.com/news/federal-election/federal-ridings-toronto-gta/2015/10/20/conservative-erin-otoole-wins-in-durham.html) on my list.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Oldgateboatdriver on October 21, 2015, 11:29:30

Doug Ford can be that, for sure, and his candidacy might deprive some others (Jason Kenney? or self-described libertarian Rona Ambrose?) of the hard right support which might be needed ... a spoiler, in other words.

A spoiler ... or maybe a king maker if the Conservatives go by way of a convention.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on October 21, 2015, 11:35:57
A spoiler ... or maybe a king maker if the Conservatives go by way of a convention.


Very possible, too ... he is very, very popular with one (important) slice of the CPC. One challenge for the Party President, Mr Walsh, and the interim leader (whomever (s)he will be) is to keep the party united. Both the old true blue Refromers and the old Red Tories will be looking to pull the party away from the centre.

I, as a party member and donor, will be pushing for a centrist leader.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Colin P on October 21, 2015, 11:38:36
Having had Baird as my Minister, i would say that although he was decent to the staff of the department, he was micro-manager and his selection of office staff was dismal. It was a breath of fresh air when Strahal took over.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Altair on October 21, 2015, 13:23:07

Others potential contenders mentioned in the article Altair copied (without attribution  :tsktsk: ):*

(https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.campaignlifecoalition.com%2Fshared%2Fmedia%2Fcandidates%2FBernierMaxime_CPC.jpg&hash=b357aa83f7ff6e2d786d300c2c875af4)   (https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fsheaf1.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2011%2F06%2FBrad-Wall.jpg&hash=1d7660c82f5a083911fa2439354474f0)   (https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fmichaelmurray.ca%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2015%2F02%2FFord-tough-guy.jpg&hash=b9fad747e5cb81ad26cf9e1c40497214)
     Maxime Bernier      and           Brad Wall            and,                                    even Doug Ford
who, I agree will almost       who I, personally,                         who some conservatives will want but who, fortunately,
certainly be a candidate    would favour, but who,                     has zero (degrees Kelvin) chance of leading the CPC
                                                 I think, will sit it out


____
* I know, posting from a phone makes things harder
CPC backroom guy who posted this on another forum but who might not want too much attention drawn to him.

Must protect my sources.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Brad Sallows on October 21, 2015, 22:30:43
A Ford brother would be the kind of sideshow the media would like to encourage to draw attention away from substantial debate or allow them to avoid covering it at all (2 minutes of Ford - oh, sorry, no time left).  He would also serve as a pretext for slagging the CPC in general.  In lieu of an actual candidacy, they will speculate on one, perhaps hoping that the horse will start to sing.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on October 22, 2015, 09:03:19
Jean Charest has quashed rumours (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/jean-charest-wont-be-a-candidate-to-succeed-stephen-harper-1.3283358) that he would be a candidate: ""I will not be a candidate to succeed Mr. Harper. I am very happy with my new life and with my work at the McCarthy Tétrault law firm," Charest wrote in an email to Radio-Canada." I never thought he would be a contender.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Altair on October 22, 2015, 13:55:40
Jean Charest has quashed rumours (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/jean-charest-wont-be-a-candidate-to-succeed-stephen-harper-1.3283358) that he would be a candidate: ""I will not be a candidate to succeed Mr. Harper. I am very happy with my new life and with my work at the McCarthy Tétrault law firm," Charest wrote in an email to Radio-Canada." I never thought he would be a contender.
I will never go back to a goverment salary
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on October 22, 2015, 14:11:46
CBC News is reporting (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/michelle-rempel-cpc-leadership-twitter-1.3283863) that Michelle Rempel is pondering a bid ...

(https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.cbc.ca%2F1.3283894.1445528880%21%2FfileImage%2FhttpImage%2Fimage.jpg_gen%2Fderivatives%2F16x9_620%2Fpolitics-20121019.jpg&hash=6f8bc1cce929f6211cb498557cafe34d)
Conservative MP Michelle Rempel took to Twitter in the middle of the night to air her
thoughts about running for Conservative leadership.                              (Adrian Wyld/Canadian Press)


Edit: spelling  :-[
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: milnews.ca on October 22, 2015, 16:14:24
A name up for interim leader (http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2015/10/22/diane-finley-wants-interim-tory-leader-job.html) - Diane Finley (http://www.parl.gc.ca/Parliamentarians/en/members/Diane-Finley%2825501%29)
(https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.thestar.com%2Fcontent%2Fdam%2Fthestar%2Fnews%2Fcanada%2F2015%2F10%2F22%2Fdiane-finley-wants-interim-tory-leader-job%2Ffinley22.jpg.size.xxlarge.letterbox.jpg&hash=538fed41a2603b5a190b58850bfdf282)
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Humphrey Bogart on October 22, 2015, 16:19:36
I will never go back to a goverment salary

You read my mind man!
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Occam on October 22, 2015, 16:42:58
(https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi893.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fac134%2FOccam_photos%2FFB_IMG_1445542344613_zps7ynjornh.jpg&hash=ec0429134bbf5305b23491ff20f633b4)
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Humphrey Bogart on October 22, 2015, 16:48:13
(https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2Fd2QCbvS.jpg&hash=bdd98d5f3bb86db06a20e615810f4469)
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on October 23, 2015, 07:43:26
According to this article, which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail, Conservatives are starting to openly criticize the recent campaign and Prime Minister Harper's leadership style. They are discussing the next leader's style, too:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/conservatives-openly-criticize-partys-election-performance/article26945334/
My emphahsis added
Quote
(https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fbeta.images.theglobeandmail.com%2Fmedia%2Fwww%2Fimages%2Fflag%2Fgam-masthead.png&hash=19ff3553db0adc5a5af34a8cb80569c3)
Conservatives openly criticize party’s election performance

STEVEN CHASE
OTTAWA — The Globe and Mail

Published Thursday, Oct. 22, 2015

Members of the now-leaderless Conservative Party are speaking more publicly and frankly about what went wrong and how to dig themselves out of defeat, with some MPs decrying centrepiece legislation or criticizing the campaign’s senior strategists.

The Conservatives are no longer in the thrall of Stephen Harper, the only leader the 12-year-old party has ever had. Mr. Harper resigned this week, and the Tories are casting about for an interim chief to guide them while they select a permanent replacement. Diane Finley, one of the few senior cabinet ministers returning in the next Parliament, put her name forward on Wednesday as a candidate for interim leader.

Mr. Harper enforced a strict message discipline, and now members find themselves able to talk more freely – at least for now.

It began on election night, shortly after the Tories lost to Justin Trudeau’s Liberals, when Harper lieutenant Jason Kenney served up a fundamental criticism of the campaign, telling the national press the Conservatives had been too negative. “I think our obvious weakness has been in tone, in the way we’ve often communicated our messages. I think we need a conservatism that is sunnier and more optimistic than we have sometimes conveyed.”

As the week wore on, more Conservatives opened up, with those in Calgary – Mr. Harper’s hometown – in a particularly candid mood.

Calgary Forest Lawn MP Deepak Obhrai, who most recently served as the Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Foreign Affairs, talked to media of how he had never liked Bill C-24, a key part of the Harper Conservatives’ legislative agenda that was controversial in the election campaign. Bill C-24, now law, allows Ottawa to revoke the Canadian citizenship of dual citizens convicted of serious crimes such as terrorism.

“I was not comfortable with the whole idea,” Mr. Obhrai said in an interview. He said he does not think the government should have the power to take away citizenship, adding that, in his job, he had “travelled around the world and seen this abuse take place.” He said he never hid his feelings on the bill. “The Prime Minister was aware of the fact I was not very happy about this.”

The legislation unnerved members of the immigrant community, and the Tories encountered concern while door-knocking. Mr. Obhrai said he thinks it hurt his party.

He called Mr. Harper a “visionary leader,” but added that, with a new chief, the Tories need to present “a different, softer image.”

“Somewhere in the middle of the campaign, we became out of touch with Canadians.”

The knives are also out for Jenni Byrne, who managed Mr. Harper’s campaign.

Newly elected Calgary Signal Hill MP Ron Liepert talked of how shocked he was at the consistent anti-Harper sentiment he met at the door while campaigning.

“That really surprised me, because I’d thought in Calgary he was almost godlike,” Mr. Liepert said to The Calgary Herald this week.

He proceeded to air his displeasure with Ms. Byrne’s management style, recounting a “15-minute shouting match” he had with her several months ago, when she visited Calgary to voice her unhappiness at how things were going for the Tories there.

“It was the most classless conversation I’ve ever had in my life.”

On CBC Radio’s Ontario Today program on Tuesday, Toronto-area MP Lisa Raitt questioned whether the Conservatives were able to reach women aged 18 to 49.

“I don’t know whether or not our party and our government did a good job of communicating with women like me,” Ms. Raitt said.

Some Conservative brass feel the public criticism of the campaign is not helping.

On Twitter on Wednesday, Guy Giorno, a former chief of staff to Mr. Harper, and 2015 national campaign chair, admonished those who would take their concerns to media.

“Any views on why we fell short, I owe it to my party to share with [the] party and national council instead of the media and public,” Mr. Giorno wrote.

This new Conservative glasnost extends to MPs contemplating running for the leadership.

Calgary Nose Hill MP Michelle Rempel posted some arresting comments on Twitter late this week about how much resistance a young female Conservative MP would face in a run for the leadership.

“But, but, but, but she’s so YOUNG and ONLY FOUR YEARS and SO BOSSY,” Ms. Rempel tweeted. “These are the things we face. I am competent, proven, and ready. Here’s the question – are you ready for someone like me?”

Turning around her party’s own criticism of Justin Trudeau – that he was too young and “just not ready” – the MP wrote, “Just not ready is no longer an argument. Times have changed.”


First: Conservatives need to be careful: they (we, I need to emphasize, too) are not Liberals.

Second: The "old Canada:new Canada" model, which some of you don't like, works; it explains what we see and it is, therefore a good theory. Yes, Ontario and British Columbia are not as Conservative as, say the Prairies, but they are, even more, not as Liberal as Quebec and Atlantic Canada. The fact is that the Conservatives and Liberals are both, once again, national parties who can be competitive across the country, but the Liberals' base is East of the Rivière des Outaouais and the CPC's base is to the West of the Ottawa River.

Third: A winning party cannot be dominated by angry, old, white men. Lisa Raitt and Michelle Rempel are right: the CPC cannot be what it wants to be and where it wants to be until it can appeal ~ almost as well as the LPC and NDP ~ to younger women, too.

Fourth: (The is a variation of the sort of joke I taught my nephew and niece ~ "Rule #1: Mom is ALWAYS right; if Mom is doing something wrong, remember Rule #1") See my First point: We are not Liberals.

Stephen Harper, was indeed, a "visionary" leader: his vision was to lead Canada, by barely perceptible, incremental steps, towards a more Conservative national position. he has, in some large measure, succeeded. He has, correctly, abandoned the "hard right" and the 'religious right." At the moment they have no other place to go, and if they find one it will be no great loss ... if the "hard right" and the "religious right" abandon the CPC it will be possible to poach from the stream in which the Blue Liberals swim.

The vision Stephen Harper has is of small town Canada, from Port Alberni (represented by an NDP MP since Monday) to Mount Pearl (represented by a Liberal) but exemplified by someplace like Shelburne or Orangeville in Ontario. That is the "firm base" of Canadian Conservatism. That is where the next leader must have his or her roots ... it's fine, even good to live in Calgary or Ottawa, but (s)he has to "fit" in Shelburne, ON or Swift Current, SK and (s)he has to share the values and vision of the people there. Those values and visions are different from those of the Big City, Big Business Big Labour Liberals and NDP voters in Vancouver, Winnipeg, Toronto and Montreal ~ they are not "better," but nor are they in any way at all "worse." They are the Conservative values of social moderation and fiscal prudence and they can win elections.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Oldgateboatdriver on October 23, 2015, 09:54:25
Stephen Harper, was indeed, a "visionary" leader: his vision was to lead Canada, by barely perceptible, incremental steps, towards a more Conservative national position. he has, in some large measure, succeeded. He has, correctly, abandoned the "hard right" and the 'religious right." At the moment they have no other place to go, and if they find one it will be no great loss ... if the "hard right" and the "religious right" abandon the CPC it will be possible to poach from the stream in which the Blue Liberals swim.

I think the part in yellow is the basis of the Conservative campaign failure.

Personal story here: I found out at age 16 that I was myopic. I was siting at the back of the class and considered a bit of a class clown in those days. One day, a teacher asks me to read the quote he put on the blackboard and I answered that there was nothing on the board. After the laughter died down and he insisted on my reading it, my friend, next to me said "here Pierre, try with these on" and handed me his glasses. It must have had the right prescription and I suddenly discovered a world I was missing.

How could I have missed it? Well, I probably started to lose my sight somewhere around age 10, by very small increments. So small indeed that every time I lost  bit more, I probably could not notice as I could not remember that only a few months back I could see just a little better. At every step, the world looked just the same to me, and I had no reference frame to figure that I could see a lot better many years before.

Since PM Harper was changing things ever so slowly, I suspect that most Canadian's failed to notice the ongoing ever so slight changes constantly taking place (it did not help that most of them were buried deep into extensive omnibus bills, so no one ever talked about it in public forums). To then, nine years later, run on your record was a terrible mistake: People's view of your record was that in nine years, you didn't do anything.

Couple that with a campaign that seeks to compare "your" record with the other party's platforms as your sole "positive" ads and promising more of the same (the other ones were just attack ads on the other parties, period) made it look like you had nothing to offer and just wanted to hold on to power for the sole sake of being in power. (As a certain French cartoons would tell us "I want to be calif instead of the calif".

Basically (unless I missed it), the Conservative campaign offered Canadians nothing, over a period of 78 days. Failure was the only possible consequence.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Brad Sallows on October 23, 2015, 11:44:10
It's difficult to evade that pattern.  Another trite observation: conservatives prefer to manage change, progressives are eager to create change.  Conservativism should be the natural inclination of people who depend on stability and for whom one major disruption can be a life-ruining event.  For the people with good educations, interesting and important jobs, comfortable incomes, all sorts of prospects and options, etc, etc to ponder - do you really think the "ordinary" people caught up in the turmoil at the margins of your next pet cause really enjoy being playthings so that you can feel better about your position in Maslow's hierarchy?

If the next Conservative leader comes from QC, so be it, but there have been a lot of recent PMs and party leaders from QC.  Whether or not the next Conservative leader comes from AB should not get anyone's panties in a knot.  (The NDP seems to do the best job of finding leaders from different regions.)

Since Harper helpfully stood with the Fords in the closing days of the campaign, he has essentially freed everyone who chooses to stand apart  from having anything to do with the Ford ilk.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on October 23, 2015, 12:04:25
It's difficult to evade that pattern.  Another trite observation: conservatives prefer to manage change, progressives are eager to create change.  Conservativism should be the natural inclination of people who depend on stability and for whom one major disruption can be a life-ruining event.  For the people with good educations, interesting and important jobs, comfortable incomes, all sorts of prospects and options, etc, etc to ponder - do you really think the "ordinary" people caught up in the turmoil at the margins of your next pet cause really enjoy being playthings so that you can feel better about your position in Maslow's hierarchy?

If the next Conservative leader comes from QC, so be it, but there have been a lot of recent PMs and party leaders from QC.  Whether or not the next Conservative leader comes from AB should not get anyone's panties in a knot.  (The NDP seems to do the best job of finding leaders from different regions.)

Since Harper helpfully stood with the Fords in the closing days of the campaign, he has essentially freed everyone who chooses to stand apart  from having anything to do with the Ford ilk.


That's a very important point:

     First: The Fords do represent a small but significant slice of the Conservative base; and

     Second: Stephen Harper, himself, represents a somewhat larger one.

Prime Minister Harper, de facto, brought those two groups into the same orbit ... but my guess is that the next CPC leader is going to be "not-Harper." John Baird, Tony Clement and Jason Kenney are, perhaps, the possible contenders most closely aligned to Prime Minister Harper so the "not-Harper" thing is most likely to work against them. Rona Ambrose, Maxime Bernier Kellie Leitch, Peter MacKay, Erin O'Toole and Michelle Rempel were all part of "team Harper" but less, I think, identified with him.

I like the fact the Ms Rempel has come out swinging at the CPC establishment. I also like the fact that Dr Leitch made a lot of friends as she campaigned tirelessly for others ~ almost as much an energizer bunny as Jason Kenney. I, personally, have no problems with a female, or a gay man, leading any Canadian political party, including my own.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on October 23, 2015, 13:45:14
The Huffington Post says: (http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/10/22/michelle-rempel-kellie-leitch-lisa-raitt-harper_n_8358092.html)

    "In the wake of the Conservative Party's defeat, three high-profile female cabinet ministers are being discussed as possible successors to Stephen Harper.

      The first, Dr. Kellie Leitch — a pediatric surgeon, outgoing minister of labour and minister for the status of women — is reportedly set to launch a campaign to lead the Conservative Party of Canada.

      The second, Michelle Rempel — a fast-rising Tory star and outgoing minister of state for Western economic diversification – is opening up about the challenges of mounting a run.

      The third, Lisa Raitt — a much-respected outgoing minister of transport — is keeping her cards close to the vest."


I haven't mentioned Lia Raitt much nor have i heard any rumblings ... but she's a good, solid contender who was rumoured to have been considering a jump to enter the Ontario PC leadership race, but didn't.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Baden Guy on October 23, 2015, 15:11:25
Some issues affecting any decision Lisa Raitt makes are being one year away from a serious health event and leaving two young boys in Milton ON while she is in Ottawa leading a recovering political party.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on October 23, 2015, 17:04:56
From Michelle Rempel (with my emphasis added):

    "I don't want our leadership race, or the direction the party takes going forward, to be defined by what the media or what the chattering class of our party says it has to be or not be. To recapture the hope and
     optimism of Canadians who didn't vote for us on Monday but who would have, we need a leadership race that is vibrant, full of many candidates, that focuses first on ideas and who we are as a party. We don't need people
     self-deselecting because "they're from Calgary" or "they have two young kids" or "they're maybe a bit too young" or "their French/English isn't impeccable" because the media and the inner circles of our party say those are
     things that disqualify them from the race.

     No.

     First we need to take stock of our loss and the emotional toll a nearly 80 day campaign has taken on many of us. Then we need to refocus on who we are as a party - one that champions freedom of economic opportunity,
     rights of the individual, less government, and more prosperity
- and how we inspire Canadians with that message. Only then should we be selecting a leader - because we need to know who we are and where we're going
     before we can choose someone who best embodies the capacity to get us there."


I share her priorities, and I consider that "rights of the individual" and "less government" means that the government doesn't concern itself with many social issues: abortion, for example, is a matter of privacy ~ a fundamental right for each woman. You or I may dislike abortion, disapprove of it, wish it wasn't the "easy way out" for too many, but the government and the churches must leave women alone to make their own choices and reconcile with their own gods. It's none of the state's bloody business. Ditto marriage ~ "normal" or gay or whatever, as long as it doesn't involve children or defenceless animals. (If you want to try to make with a tiger ... fill your boots, but don't expect Medicare to stitch you back up again!) And it really doesn't matter if you want to wear a head scarf or face mask to swear allegiance to the Queen ~ but you must uncover your face to get a driving licence, testify in court or vote.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on October 23, 2015, 17:16:48
Paul Wells, writing in Maclean's, reports (http://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/conservative-caucus-unrest-mounts/) on rumours about the CPC leadership. He says that:

    "Senior Conservative sources said there is already growing concern that either Harper, or people who were close to him while he was prime minister, are seeking to organize his succession. Some members of the party’s national
     council are calling for a leadership election as early as May of 2016, which would give an advantage to members who are already well-organized, The member who most closely fits that description is Jason Kenney.

     Kenney will have competition. Simcoe-Grey MP Kellie Leitch, not one of the most prominent members of the former government, is said to have an organization already in place, including Andy Pringle, who was chief of staff to
     former Ontario Progressive Conservative leader John Tory, and pollsters Nick Kouvalis and Richard Ciano."
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Chris Pook on October 23, 2015, 18:11:50
From Michelle Rempel (with my emphasis added):

    "I don't want our leadership race, or the direction the party takes going forward, to be defined by what the media or what the chattering class of our party says it has to be or not be. To recapture the hope and
     optimism of Canadians who didn't vote for us on Monday but who would have, we need a leadership race that is vibrant, full of many candidates, that focuses first on ideas and who we are as a party. We don't need people
     self-deselecting because "they're from Calgary" or "they have two young kids" or "they're maybe a bit too young" or "their French/English isn't impeccable" because the media and the inner circles of our party say those are
     things that disqualify them from the race.

     No.

     First we need to take stock of our loss and the emotional toll a nearly 80 day campaign has taken on many of us. Then we need to refocus on who we are as a party - one that champions freedom of economic opportunity,
     rights of the individual, less government, and more prosperity
- and how we inspire Canadians with that message. Only then should we be selecting a leader - because we need to know who we are and where we're going
     before we can choose someone who best embodies the capacity to get us there."


I share her priorities, and I consider that "rights of the individual" and "less government" means that the government doesn't concern itself with many social issues: abortion, for example, is a matter of privacy ~ a fundamental right for each woman. You or I may dislike abortion, disapprove of it, wish it wasn't the "easy way out" for too many, but the government and the churches must leave women alone to make their own choices and reconcile with their own gods. It's none of the state's bloody business. Ditto marriage ~ "normal" or gay or whatever, as long as it doesn't involve children or defenceless animals. (If you want to try to make with a tiger ... fill your boots, but don't expect Medicare to stitch you back up again!) And it really doesn't matter if you want to wear a head scarf or face mask to swear allegiance to the Queen ~ but you must uncover your face to get a driving licence, testify in court or vote.



My only quibble with what you have said is here.  I have no problem with the face being masked in public.  But the act of swearing allegiance needs to be witnessed, just as procuring a driver's licence, testifying and voting must be.  The prospective citizen needs to bare their face when swearing allegiance.

However.

They do not have to swear allegiance in public.  2 out 3 of my official attestations were done in the presence of only two people other than myself.  Only once was I on public display.

If the person attests in private and still wants to participate in the public theatricals with their face covered I am quite alright with that.

PS.  I still want to shake hands with a bare-face when concluding personal contracts.  That is my choice.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Chris Pook on October 23, 2015, 18:14:03
Paul Wells, writing in Maclean's, reports (http://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/conservative-caucus-unrest-mounts/) on rumours about the CPC leadership. He says that:

    "Senior Conservative sources said there is already growing concern that either Harper, or people who were close to him while he was prime minister, are seeking to organize his succession. Some members of the party’s national
     council are calling for a leadership election as early as May of 2016, which would give an advantage to members who are already well-organized, The member who most closely fits that description is Jason Kenney.

     Kenney will have competition. Simcoe-Grey MP Kellie Leitch, not one of the most prominent members of the former government, is said to have an organization already in place, including Andy Pringle, who was chief of staff to
     former Ontario Progressive Conservative leader John Tory, and pollsters Nick Kouvalis and Richard Ciano."


Of course people will seek to control events and take whatever advantages come their way. 

But I do like the idea of an open discussion.  There is time to get that out of the way in the next 18 month and then finesse the warts over the next two and a half years.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Rick Goebel on October 23, 2015, 18:28:17
I could use some enlightenment on "You or I may dislike abortion, disapprove of it, wish it wasn't the "easy way out" for too many, but the government and the churches must leave women alone to make their own choices and reconcile with their own gods. It's none of the state's bloody business. "  I am pretty considerably confused about abortion but broadly agree with the quoted statement.  The state, though, generally pays for abortions.  Doesn't that make it the states' business?
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on October 23, 2015, 18:41:57
Our system says, used to say, anyway, that our state provided medical insurance covers all medically necessary procedures ... now I keep on reading that some people, not many to be sure but some, must travel outside of Canada for what are, pretty clearly, medically necessary procedures because they are not available here, but Ontario, for example, doesn't always pay. So the "rule" seems, to me, to be a bit flexible.

Are all abortions "medically necessary?" Some are, to be sure ... no doubt. But some are for convenience, I think and maybe the state ought not to pay ... but who decides? A doctor? A civil servant? And on what basis?

I believe that a woman's right to have an abortion rests on an absolutely fundamental right to privacy as defined by Brandeis and Warren in the USA late in the 19th century. Full stop, end of that discussion. But the question of paying is a lot more complex and murky, especially if you believe, as I do, that the Canadian single payer healthcare system is economic/fiscal madness which cannot be sustained.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Fishbone Jones on October 23, 2015, 19:16:58
I could use some enlightenment on "You or I may dislike abortion, disapprove of it, wish it wasn't the "easy way out" for too many, but the government and the churches must leave women alone to make their own choices and reconcile with their own gods. It's none of the state's bloody business. "  I am pretty considerably confused about abortion but broadly agree with the quoted statement.  The state, though, generally pays for abortions.  Doesn't that make it the states' business?

Doctor\ Patient confidentiality should preclude that.

Doctor: I performed an abortion. OHIP, here's my bill.

OHIP: What was the nature of the abortion?

Doctor: None of your business.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Rick Goebel on October 24, 2015, 18:11:59
Doctor\ Patient confidentiality should preclude that.

Doctor: I performed an abortion. OHIP, here's my bill.

OHIP: What was the nature of the abortion?

Doctor: None of your business.

How about: I performed in-vitro fertilization.  Quebec health care, here's my bill.

Quebec health care: How old was the patient?

Doctor: None of your business.

Quebec health care: Well, yes it is.  We don't pay for in-vitro fertilization of women over 42.

Is there a reason why paying for only some in-vitro fertilization is ok but paying for only some abortions isn't?
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: PuckChaser on October 24, 2015, 18:33:51
In vitro for women over 42 has a very low chance of working and high risk for complications for both mother and child. I don't have a dog in the abortion fight, but that's their rationale behind the age limit.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Oldgateboatdriver on October 24, 2015, 18:37:37
Actually, there is a reason: In-vitro fertilization of women over 42 has been medically proven to have an insignificant (that means very very very very low) rate of success.

Abortion works on any woman who is pregnant.  ;)

All kidding aside, there are all sorts of medical questions that are covered by Provincial Health Care plans  (and even private plans) that require doctors to reveal some patient-doctor confidential information. And it is perfectly OK because it is to determine if the procedure is covered, and therefore paid by the plan. But this information has to be treated as confidential by those plans and cannot be for the purpose of determining moral values that the sate may wish to impose. At that point, the courts step in to stop the state.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on October 25, 2015, 10:11:02
David Akin speculates on how the leadership contest should develop in this column which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Toronto Sun:

http://www.torontosun.com/2015/10/24/three-things-for-conservatives-to-consider-as-they-move-forward
Quote
(https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Ftrans-americas.com%2Fimage%2Fwork%2FTorontoSun_logo.gif&hash=94685389cf0bbefd16ce340f4d113154)
Tone, patience and unity
Three things for Conservatives to consider as they move forward

BY DAVID AKIN, PARLIAMENTARY BUREAU CHIEF

FIRST POSTED: SATURDAY, OCTOBER 24, 2015

OTTAWA — Freed from the communications lockdown they were in when Stephen Harper ran the joint, Conservatives everywhere are now freely offering up their opinions, criticisms, and correctives in the wake of Monday’s election loss.

It’s been very entertaining to listen to Conservative MPs, who would normally never venture beyond the talking points handed to them, now sailing forth with abandon, often in the presence of a reporter’s microphone.

But once they get that out of their system and the serious work of retuning the party begins, it would be wise to agree on a few winning principles: Avoid regional factionalism; have some patience; encourage an adult communications approach that acknowledges alternative views and avoids demonizing those who hold them.

Several Conservatives I’ve spoken to who will be influential in shaping the leadership race and, therefore, prefer not to be quoted by name just yet, said that, whatever happens, the next leader cannot be drawn into any debate that would pit one region against another.

Some Tory insiders told me they do not expect that to happen but it’s useful to remember that, after nearly a decade of Stephen Harper's government, Quebec nationalism is at at generational low tide at the same time there appears to be an absence of the kind of Western Canadian alienation that prompted Harper and friends to write their famous 2001 “firewall” letter.

That was the one in which Harper and others urged then Alberta premier Ralph Klein to essentially disconnect as much as possible from the then Liberal government in Ottawa.

One of the authors of that letter was Ken Boessenkool, who went on to play senior and central roles in every national Conservative campaign that Harper led, including the one just concluded.

“No one did more for national unity than the Harper government,” Boessenkool told me when I talked to him last week. “We’ve got peace in Canada.”

Boessenkool has been freely dispensing his advice about the party’s future since Monday’s loss.

Among the most interesting observations he’s offered is that the party should seriously consider the advantage a female candidate would have over Justin Trudeau in 2019.

“It’s quite remarkable. Women don’t lose,” Boessenkool said.

He singles out Christy Clark, Alison Redford, Rachel Notley, Kathleen Wynne, and Pauline Marois as examples of female politicians who, in their first try, won.

(We’ll overlook Ontario NDP Leader Andrea Horwath as the exception that proves the rule, perhaps.)

It’s an interesting proposition to consider, particularly since three current female members of the Conservative caucus are being encouraged to consider seeking their party’s leadership: Michelle Rempel of Alberta, Kellie Leitch and Lisa Raitt, both of Ontario.

“The person who’s been making the most intelligent points since the election is Lisa,” a well-connected Conservative from Ontario told me Friday.

But there’s no rush to choose. The first thing a Conservative war room veteran told me on Tuesday was the silver lining in the cloud that was the Trudeau majority government, was that it gave the party four years to get ready for the next election.

I’ve heard the same sentiment from others, the implication being that the leadership race should take a year to 18 months to unfold, followed by at least a year or so of policy renewal. That still leaves the new leader and party plenty of time to find new candidates and get on an election footing for 2019.

I also think it’s wise for Conservative partisans to assume their new leader may not win his or her first election.

Look for some electoral success in 2019, but an outright first-time win, conceivable if the party makes all the right choices in the next 24 months, is not essential for the next leader.

One of the things to get right is the tone the party and its leader use regarding political opponents and the media. Ever since Trudeau became Liberal leader, my inbox would regularly include a complaint from someone describing themselves as a “grassroots” Conservative who was embarrassed by the often juvenile way political opponents were treated in party advertising and by some MPs themselves.

If that’s how dyed-in-the-wool partisans felt, you can imagine how much it turned off potential or “soft” Conservative supporters.

Diane Finley, a Harper cabinet minister re-elected in southern Ontario, said, in announcing her intention to seek her party's interim leadership that, “Canadians expect from us a dignified, respectful but critical eye on the newly elected government.”

Indeed, they do. But Conservatives also expect a dignified, respectful government. Conservatives would be wise to remember that as they re-make their party.


So, in no particular order:

     1. Consider women as, at least equal ~ maybe a bit more that equal ~ in probability of a "first round kill;"

     2. No regionalism ~ no special status for a Quebec candidate nor for a Western one;

     3. Take your time, but: new leader first, policy convention second; and

     4. Get the whole tone of the party right, starting with the interim leader and how members perform in the house and in constituencies.


Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: GAP on October 25, 2015, 11:33:58
A GOOD female candidate from Ontario makes electoral sense as long as they are NOT:

       Stridently conservative, histrionics are out.......

       Able to avoid regionalism/divisiveness , especially when coming to decrying the Western influence

Being from Ontario will forestall a lot of the "out there" attitude. It is closer to home and safer....

 :2c:       

footnote: Harper always had the footnote somewhere that he was from Calgary, therefore implying he did not really understand the East....
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on October 25, 2015, 12:28:52
A GOOD female candidate from Ontario makes electoral sense as long as they are NOT:

       Stridently conservative, histrionics are out.......

       Able to avoid regionalism/divisiveness , especially when coming to decrying the Western influence

Being from Ontario will forestall a lot of the "out there" attitude. It is closer to home and safer....

 :2c:       

footnote: Harper always had the footnote somewhere that he was from Calgary, therefore implying he did not really understand the East....

Defining "good," in conservative terms, for Conservatives, is the tricky part. There is no, single, one-size-fits-all Conservative; the spectrum runs from the hard edge of the religious right to the left wing of the Red  Tories, who are Liberals in everything but name. The leader ought ~ in my opinion ~ to eschew both those wings and aim, squarely, for the socially moderate and fiscally prudent middle of the spectrum.

I self identify as being in about the middle of that conservative spectrum and I want a leader who, even though (s)he holds a principled pro-life position, recognizes and affirms that abortion is a settled issue, some Conservatives may wish to debate it, that;'s their right, even to raise it in parliament, but the party's position is that choice is a woman's right and the issue will not be revisited by a Conservative government; I want a leader who will be brave enough to roll back some social programmes and repeal the Canada Health Act, leaving provinces free to experiment with whatever models make fiscal and political sense; I want a leader who will stop the cronyism, pork barrelling and corporate welfare (http://www.amazon.ca/Louder-Voices-Corporate-Welfare-Bums/dp/0888620314) that masquerade as "regional economic diversification" programmes; I want a leader who will make practical policies that aim to stop the human rot that infests too many (arguably most) First Nations ~ First Nations people need to be able to stand, proudly, on their own merits, and through their own efforts as happy, prosperous Canadians; I want a leader who will explain to Canadians why we need to pay for a modest but efficient and effective military, even though it may be a "waste" in pure economic terms; finally I want a leader who will enunciate a practical (affordable), principled and even visionary foreign policy that sets goals for Canada in the world.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: GAP on October 25, 2015, 12:59:57
I think he died about 2000 years ago.....but yeah..... ;D
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Brad Sallows on October 25, 2015, 13:16:45
So you basically want Harper, but more to the right? :)

An interesting thing about Harper's "control" is that without it the CPC might never have gotten into a position to complain about losing government due to it.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: ModlrMike on October 25, 2015, 13:34:11
There is still a deeply rooted anti western bias in the political intelligentsia. In Mr Trudea's own words:

“Certainly when we look at the great prime ministers of the 20th century, those that really stood the test of time, they were MPs from Quebec ... This country — Canada — it belongs to us.”

I think this comment sums up the mountain the next (any) Conservative leader has to scale.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on October 25, 2015, 13:55:12
So you basically want Harper, but more to the right? :)

An interesting thing about Harper's "control" is that without it the CPC might never have gotten into a position to complain about losing government due to it.


You're not far off at all, Brad.

I thought Prime Minister Harper was far too cautious on the small government, First Nations and corporate welfare fronts.

I opposed many (not all) of his "boutique tax cuts," but I thought (still think) his cuts to the HST/GST was good public policy as well as being good politics, because it makes it harder for any government to spend wildly.

I supported him, broadly, on foreign policy, especially on freer trade with all and sundry, and I have expressed the view, elsewhere, that it was the MND, DM and CDS of the day, back in 2012, who failed a test administered by the prime minister (in the form of direction to cut the fat in HQs), not the prime minister being "wrong" on defence.

My sense of the CPC's base is shown in the attached diagram. I believe that the next leader must aim to please the 90±% of Conservatives who are somewhere on the Social and fiscal moderates through to Social moderates but fiscal hawks segments on the spectrum. I think we can, even should, be prepared to jettison the Red Tories and the Social conservatives, if necessary to preserve party unity, and the two extreme fringes if they cannot stomach the "mushy middle."
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Thucydides on October 25, 2015, 13:56:58
Defining "good," in conservative terms, for Conservatives, is the tricky part. There is no, single, one-size-fits-all Conservative; the spectrum runs from the hard edge of the religious right to the left wing of the Red  Tories, who are Liberals in everything but name. The leader ought ~ in my opinion ~ to eschew both those wings and aim, squarely, for the socially moderate and fiscally prudent middle of the spectrum.

I self identify as being in about the middle of that conservative spectrum and I want a leader who, even though (s)he holds a principled pro-life position, recognizes and affirms that abortion is a settled issue, some Conservatives may wish to debate it, that;'s their right, even to raise it in parliament, but the party's position is that choice is a woman's right and the issue will not be revisited by a Conservative government; I want a leader who will be brave enough to roll back some social programmes and repeal the Canada Health Act, leaving provinces free to experiment with whatever models make fiscal and political sense; I want a leader who will stop the cronyism, pork barrelling and corporate welfare (http://www.amazon.ca/Louder-Voices-Corporate-Welfare-Bums/dp/0888620314) that masquerade as "regional economic diversification" programmes; I want a leader who will make practical policies that aim to stop the human rot that infests too many (arguably most) First Nations ~ First Nations people need to be able to stand, proudly, on their own merits, and through their own efforts as happy, prosperous Canadians; I want a leader who will explain to Canadians why we need to pay for a modest but efficient and effective military, even though it may be a "waste" in pure economic terms; finally I want a leader who will enunciate a practical (affordable), principled and even visionary foreign policy that sets goals for Canada in the world.

https://www.libertarian.ca/

These guys have the platform you want, but are organizationally impaired WRT actually getting things done on the scale needed (sorry to the guys who ran this election, and kudos for doing so, but when you get right down to it...). If anything, they need someone even more ruthless and focused than Stephen Harper as a leader to get their game up.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on October 26, 2015, 09:14:10
The Globe and Mail is reporting (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ex-foreign-affairs-minister-john-baird-considering-bid-for-tory-leadership/article26969258/) that former Foreign Minister and Ottawa MP John Baird, 46, is, indeed, considering offering himself for the CPC leadership.

"A Baird candidacy," the Globe and Mail opines, "would significantly alter the ‎competitive landscape for the helm of a party now in search of a compelling challenger to stand up to prime-minister-designate Justin Trudeau. As things stand, the presumed heir apparent is Jason Kenney, 47, a veteran of the Harper cabinet who is still deciding whether to run."

Further, the Globe suggests that "Mr. Baird’s political philosophy is not readily distinguishable from Mr. Kenney’s; were both men to run, the choice for voters would come down to personality and perceived winnability rather than a change in direction [and] like Mr. Kenney, Mr. Baird could be described as a small-government conservative who is hawkish on security and defence."

I am a bit of a John Baird fan, and, as I have said several times, on Army.ca (https://army.ca/forums/), I am unconcerned about the private lives and proclivities of politicians as long as they are within the bounds of the law and (reasonably) good manners, but I also agree with those who think that we need to change the public "face" (image) of the CPC, to a less stern, unyielding and secretive one, and I wonder if a female leader might not be a better choice to face off against Justin Trudeau in 2019.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on October 26, 2015, 09:26:39
David Parkins, in the Globe and Mail, takes stock of the CPC leadership hopefuls as they sift through the electoral wreckage:

(https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.theglobeandmail.com%2Fincoming%2Farticle26961164.ece%2FBINARY%2Fw620%2Fwebmonedcar26col1.jpg&hash=d4f5c0363b09bb03fec2b688aca3f0c8)
L to R: Jason Kenney, Tony Clement, Peter MacKay (looking on from afar), Kellie Leitch, John Baird,
Lisa Rait, Maxime Bernier and Doug Ford
Source: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/editorial-cartoons-for-october-2015/article26577881/

I don't see Michelle Rempel there but I think she's a possible contender.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on October 26, 2015, 12:17:39
The Globe and Mail is reporting (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ex-foreign-affairs-minister-john-baird-considering-bid-for-tory-leadership/article26969258/) that former Foreign Minister and Ottawa MP John Baird, 46, is, indeed, considering offering himself for the CPC leadership.

...


But, CBC News quotes Mr Baird (http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/john-baird-ex-harper-cabinet-minister-won-t-run-for-conservative-leadership-1.3288683) as saying "While I have indeed received expressions of interest and am tremendously flattered by the support, I will not be running for leader of the Conservative party of Canada ... When I retired from politics, I spoke about starting a new chapter in my life. I am extremely happy with this new chapter and will remain dedicated to my work in the private sector."
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Colin P on October 26, 2015, 15:08:10
I have to think that Harper allowed an "echo chamber" to form around him, it seemed that slowly they cut off any dissent and people voicing other opinions, got wrapped up in the strategy games and sniping their opponent. They lost the ear to the ground that would have allowed them to pick up clues from the voters. 
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on October 26, 2015, 15:16:20
I have to think that Harper allowed an "echo chamber" to form around him, it seemed that slowly they cut off any dissent and people voicing other opinions, got wrapped up in the strategy games and sniping their opponent. They lost the ear to the ground that would have allowed them to pick up clues from the voters.


As others have said, that may have been essential to create enforce some sort of unity on the diverse elements of the fledgling Conservative Party of Canada. There was, as I recall, a lot of dissent from the old Red Tories on the left and some of the hard edged Reformers on the right. Party unity was not a foregone conclusion ... it is still not guaranteed, as David Aiken pointed out in an article I posted yesterday (https://army.ca/forums/index.php/topic,97393.msg1396838.html#msg1396838).
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Altair on October 26, 2015, 15:26:22
David Parkins, in the Globe and Mail, takes stock of the CPC leadership hopefuls as they sift through the electoral wreckage:

(https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.theglobeandmail.com%2Fincoming%2Farticle26961164.ece%2FBINARY%2Fw620%2Fwebmonedcar26col1.jpg&hash=d4f5c0363b09bb03fec2b688aca3f0c8)
L to R: Jason Kenney, Tony Clement, Peter MacKay (looking on from afar), Kellie Leitch, John Baird,
Lisa Rait, Maxime Bernier and Doug Ford
Source: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/editorial-cartoons-for-october-2015/article26577881/

I don't see Michelle Rempel there but I think she's a possible contender.
was that Peter MacKay off in the distance?
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: whiskey601 on October 26, 2015, 15:36:25
If hey have any brains at all, they need to outside the box and get someone who is youthful, dynamically adept, strong willed and extremely brilliant. It is that last one that the LPC lacks in their current leader, as time will show. 
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on October 26, 2015, 15:40:07
was that Peter MacKay off in the distance?

Yes ... lantern jaw and broken nose (rugby).
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Fishbone Jones on October 26, 2015, 18:23:42
I have to think that Harper allowed an "echo chamber" to form around him, it seemed that slowly they cut off any dissent and people voicing other opinions, got wrapped up in the strategy games and sniping their opponent. They lost the ear to the ground that would have allowed them to pick up clues from the voters.

Time spent on recce is seldom wasted ;)
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: PPCLI Guy on October 26, 2015, 18:36:24
Time spent on recce is seldom wasted ;)

And time wasted on recce is never regained......
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Fishbone Jones on October 26, 2015, 19:19:56
And time wasted on recce is never regained......

.........nor are the losses, because of it. 8)

Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Loachman on October 26, 2015, 19:28:44
...abortion ... choice ... is a woman's right

There are two parties with direct interest in abortion.

Nobody seems willing to speak for the other.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on October 26, 2015, 19:58:28
David Akin, Sun News, reports that (http://www.ottawasun.com/2015/10/26/otoole-could-be-fresh-face-for-temporary-tory-leader) Erin O'Toole and Rona Ambrose might be interested in being the interim leader. Mr Akin reports, and I think (but I'm not at all certain that) he's right, that the party rules will make the interim leader ineligible to run for party leader, something in which I suspect Ms Ambrose is interested in doing. Candice Bergen, Michelle Rempel and Andrew Scheer are also mentioned as interim leader candidates, as are Diane Finley and Rob Nicholson. I think Ms Rempel, like Ms Ambrose is really more interested in being party leader but may be just testing the (caucus/party) waters for support.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: dapaterson on October 26, 2015, 20:05:09
I suspect more than a few are sizing up the party's prospects for the next election, considering that the prior leader will be in caucus, and deciding that they have no desire to be Stanfield to Harper's Diefenbaker.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: GAP on October 26, 2015, 20:27:15
David Akin, Sun News, reports that (http://www.ottawasun.com/2015/10/26/otoole-could-be-fresh-face-for-temporary-tory-leader) Erin O'Toole and Rona Ambrose might be interested in being the interim leader. Mr Akin reports, and I think (but I'm not at all certain that) he's right, that the party rules will make the interim leader ineligible to run for party leader, something in which I suspect Ms Ambrose is interested in doing. Candice Bergen, Michelle Rempel and Andrew Scheer are also mentioned as interim leader candidates, as are Diane Finley and Rob Nicholson. I think Ms Rempel, like Ms Ambrose is really more interested in being party leader but may be just testing the (caucus/party) waters for support.

There might be valid candidates out there that are going to wait out this round of leader contention. They could come in after the next election defeat and the party would be more willing to reconstruct, rather than vie for power right away.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Brad Sallows on October 26, 2015, 23:03:18
Now is the time to start, not after the next election.  The social media echo chamber is going to be almost as hard for the Liberals to endure.  It's a mistake to assume any old ideas about time and attitudes still apply.  There are lots of hands out, and not much to hand out after the honeymoon ends.

The voter's rebuke was meant for Harper, so he won't command widespread loyalty.  Any new leader with a backbone worthy of the position should by definition not worry about Harper.   All the earnest "advice" and concern trolling and hand-wringing about Harper's presence, aside from being meant to throw up FUD in the Conservatives' face and frighten them into proceeding weakly and indecisively, could equally well be empty words.  Reporters kept remarking on Harper's equanimity in the closing campaign stages and in defeat as if they expected or hoped for an outburst.  He could just as easily be an elder statesman as a distraction.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on October 27, 2015, 09:06:58
Now is the time to start, not after the next election.  The social media echo chamber is going to be almost as hard for the Liberals to endure.  It's a mistake to assume any old ideas about time and attitudes still apply.  There are lots of hands out, and not much to hand out after the honeymoon ends.

The voter's rebuke was meant for Harper, so he won't command widespread loyalty.  Any new leader with a backbone worthy of the position should by definition not worry about Harper.   All the earnest "advice" and concern trolling and hand-wringing about Harper's presence, aside from being meant to throw up FUD in the Conservatives' face and frighten them into proceeding weakly and indecisively, could equally well be empty words.  Reporters kept remarking on Harper's equanimity in the closing campaign stages and in defeat as if they expected or hoped for an outburst.  He could just as easily be an elder statesman as a distraction.


As I said a couple of days ago (http://army.ca/forums/index.php/topic,97393.msg1396549.html#msg1396549), the First Rule to remember is that we, the CPC, are not Liberals ... so the advice we/the CPC do not want to follow is that which flows from e.g. the Laurentian Elites and the big city chattering classes.

There are real, identifiable Canadian Conservative values and goals which can be enunciated and which can attract a good, solid, 35% to 45% of the national vote base. Conservatives don't need to wait for the Liberals to, as they inevitably have done since 1960, fall back into their old habits of cronyism and corruption. Nor do they need to disavow what Prime Minister Harper did for Canada. The voters decided that the Conservatives, but especially Prime Minister Harper, had been in power long enough (nine years); they want change. The Conservative Party can offer the change in style they are after without proposing to undo everything that was done in the past few years. Some policies and programmes (Bill C-51, for example) will change, and the CPC should not fight too hard for some of their old policies. (Getting rid of some 'monumental' projects (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/editorials/whose-mother-would-this-monstrous-monument-be/article26957709/) would be a good idea, too, and one Conservatives ought not to oppose too strongly.) What Conservatives need to do is to offer most Canadians, especially those families in small cities and towns and in big-city suburbs, fresh, new, attractive policies.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: dapaterson on October 27, 2015, 09:08:21
But can they do that with Diefenbaker Harper still in the room?
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on October 27, 2015, 09:22:43
But can they do that with Diefenbaker Harper still in the room?


That will be as hard as he makes it, for as long as he feels the need to stay "in the room."

My guess is that Prime Minister Harper wants to do two things:

     1. Set a good example by continuing to serve, for a while, to avoid the costs/fuss of another by-election; and

     2. Enjoy the privileges and immunities (http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/canadian-politics/long-election-could-scuttle-harpers-ability-to-claim-privilege-in-duffy-trial-testimony) that being an elected MP confer ... for another year or so.


Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on October 27, 2015, 10:55:33
The Huffington Post reports that (http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/10/27/conservative-leadership-candice-bergen_n_8398034.html) Candice Bergen will seek to be the interim leader, as will, the HP says, Diane Finley, Erin O'Toole and Rob Nicholson.

Interim leader is tricky job ... I think Bob Rae did it well for the LPC: he provided some much needed gravitas and stability while the leadership race ~ it was, really, more like a coronation procession ~ was underway. I believe the the CPC leadership race will be longer and more intense than the Liberal one in 2012/13; it will, certainly, have a much, much more talented field. The interim leader will have to maintain 'good order and discipline" in the caucus while the leadership contestants are battling each other for support; it's a job that needs diplomatic and political skills.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Colin P on October 27, 2015, 11:08:19
I think George Bush set a good example, never commenting on the new leader, focusing on things close to his heart.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Remius on October 27, 2015, 11:52:26
The interim leader will have to maintain 'good order and discipline" in the caucus while the leadership contestants are battling each other for support; it's a job that needs diplomatic and political skills.

This is key.  Hopefully the CPC's frequent use of attack ads and tricks won't be used to destroy each other.  I see this with the Republican Party in the U.S.  by the time the leadership is settled they've pretty imploded.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on October 28, 2015, 12:52:30
The sort of "advice" which Conservatives need to ignore, in total, is the sort offered, in this column, which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail, by Jeffrey Simpson, unofficial spokesman for the Laurentian Elites:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/globe-politics-insider/jeffrey-simpson-for-tories-a-long-list-of-difficult-questions/article27008823/
Quote
(https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fbeta.images.theglobeandmail.com%2Fmedia%2Fwww%2Fimages%2Fflag%2Fgam-masthead.png&hash=19ff3553db0adc5a5af34a8cb80569c3)
For Tories, a long list of difficult questions

SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Jeffrey Simpson
The Globe and Mail

Published Wednesday, Oct. 28, 2015

Think about Shakespeare’s plays. The main actors are at the front of the stage delivering their lines. The audience pays attention to them, for they are the key players in the drama.

Behind them, sometimes, are arrayed various players garbed in togas, or breastplates, or peasants’ attire, or nobles’ robes. They don’t utter many lines, except for the occasional collective grunt or cheer. The audience pays them little, if any, heed.

So it will be in Canadian politics for a long time after the Oct. 19 election. Justin Trudeau’s government will be front and centre for many, many months, with Liberal dramatis personae delivering all the important lines. Conservatives and New Democrats will cluster at the rear of the political stage, grunting and muttering, with almost no one paying attention.

For the Conservatives, the former government, recognizing this forthcoming period of prolonged marginality could be a way of returning eventually to centre stage, but only if they think hard enough about why the vast majority of Canadians wanted to see their backs.

Having recently been centre stage, the Conservatives might be tempted to figure out quickly how best to return there. Nothing could be more counterproductive.

They should use their prolonged period of being marginal players to figure out what they should say when centre stage truly beckons again, because for now, and for the foreseeable future, the vast majority of Canadians don’t want to hear from or about Conservatives, so bitter is their memory of the Harper years.

Already, however, a list of former Harper cabinet ministers is being mooted, containing potential contenders. Media reports had suggested that former foreign minister John Baird was contemplating a return to politics, having declared not long ago that he was through with the game. Mercifully, he squelched that speculation.

All of the names being floated are holdovers from the Harper years. They were ministers in Harper governments. They helped frame the government’s policies – at least they did at the margin, given that so many decisions were framed by Stephen Harper. But they defended those policies. They did so in the verbally pugilistic, take-no-prisoners style so typical of the Harper party. They were, are and will be Harperites, although some will try to put some light between themselves and their past.

Leadership puts the proverbial cart before the horse. What the Conservatives need – this is the cart – is to ask themselves at length and in depth: Where did we go wrong? Was it just that we overstayed our welcome and “time for a change” defeated us?

Or was there something deeper about who we were, what we stood for, how we made decisions, how we communicated them to Canadians, how we related to other Canadian institutions such as provinces, the business community, aboriginals, the news media, officers of Parliament, the civil service, non-governmental groups?

Why were we at daggers drawn with scientists, civil servants, “experts,” journalists, the cultural community, even part of the business community (telecommunications, railroads)? Is that where we want to be as Conservatives?

How did we manage to fritter away about a fifth of the support we had secured in the 2011 election by voting day 2015? Why are we by far the least-favoured second-choice party, with the fewest number of people who would consider voting for us? Is it the correct strategy to try for a maximum of 40 per cent of the electors?

The list of questions runs much longer, and thinking through the list must take a long time. Only then will the Conservatives be ready to figure out which horse should pull the cart.

The debate must not be directed and led exclusively by Harper holdovers, because other voices might emerge. There might be sitting or former premiers. There might be someone who catches the party’s attention from among new MPs, a few of whom from Quebec had reputations beyond politics. There could be someone from outside politics, such as a lawyer and businessman named Brian Mulroney who contested the Progressive Conservative leadership in 1976. No one knows if he would have done better than the winner of that convention, Joe Clark.

The time will come when Canadians might be interested in what centre-stage Conservatives will say, but that time is far off. In the meantime, figure out the lines, rather than choosing the main actor.


Please, please, PLEASE Conservatives, ignore every single word after "Think about Shakespeare’s plays." We should, all of us, think about Shakespeare's plays more often than we do, that's good advice for one and all, but everything that follows is intended to help the Liberals, not the Conservatives.

Do not worry about why the CPC government was "at daggers drawn with scientists, civil servants, “experts,” journalists, the cultural community," those "communities" were "at daggers drawn with YOU before you turned on them.

"How did we manage to fritter away about a fifth of the support we had secured in the 2011 election by voting day 2015?" "Why are we by far the least-favoured second-choice party, with the fewest number of people who would consider voting for us?" and "Is it the correct strategy to try for a maximum of 40 per cent of the electors?" are interesting academic questions and party followers, not its leaders should worry over them.

Especially ignore Mr Simpsons concerns that the most likely leaders "are holdovers from the Harper years. They were ministers in Harper governments. They helped frame the government’s policies – at least they did at the margin, given that so many decisions were framed by Stephen Harper. But they defended those policies. They did so in the verbally pugilistic, take-no-prisoners style so typical of the Harper party. They were, are and will be Harperites," he's just annoyed because your, Conservative, opposition "front bench" is qualitatively superior to all but a tiny handful of Prime Minister designate Trudeau's.

Read Mr Simpson's column, "know your enemy," as we used to say ... then do the reverse.

(https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.losangelescriminaldefenseattorneyblog.com%2Ffiles%2F2014%2F08%2Fquote-sun-tzu-los-angeles-dui-defense.jpg&hash=c7f5f12840b7b7931298ededada24e06)

What the CPC needs to do is to:

     1. Reconnect with its legitimate values and ambitions, which are grounded in the families who live in the suburbs around Vancouver, Calgary, Winnipeg, Toronto and Ottawa and in the small cities and towns that stretch from Vancouver Island to the Avalon Peninsula;

     2. Enunciate those values, clearly to all Canadians;

     3. Select a leader who personifies those values ~ and there are many useful candidates, including several "Harperites."

Jeffrey Simpson says "Harperites" with a sneer of contempt; Conservatives need to say it with pride. Jeffrey Simpson represents a fast fading past of elites and croyism; Stephen Harper is the face that showed us the way to a better, more egalitarian society.


Edit: format
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Fishbone Jones on October 28, 2015, 13:04:00
The halcyon days of the MSM sneering, deriding and condemning everything Harper are coming to an end. They no longer have the lightning rod for their biased trash, in order to fill their columns. Watch for people like Simpson to become more desperate and outlandish while they attempt to wring one last article out of the CPC and Harper.

I'm looking forward to the day that they become so hungry that they finally, and inevitably, turn on their liberal masters and start devouring them instead.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: milnews.ca on October 28, 2015, 13:51:33
I'm looking forward to the day that they become so hungry that they finally, and inevitably, turn on their liberal masters and start devouring them instead.
It won't be "if", but "when" - even if it's only to say, "he's not Liberal ENOUGH!"
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Chris Pook on October 28, 2015, 19:07:09
The sort of "advice" which Conservatives need to ignore, in total, is the sort offered, in this column, which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail, by Jeffrey Simpson, unofficial spokesman for the Laurentian Elites:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/globe-politics-insider/jeffrey-simpson-for-tories-a-long-list-of-difficult-questions/article27008823/

Please, please, PLEASE Conservatives, ignore every single word after "Think about Shakespeare’s plays." We should, all of us, think about Shakespeare's plays more often than we do, that's good advice for one and all, but everything that follows is intended to help the Liberals, not the Conservatives.

Do not worry about why the CPC government was "at daggers drawn with scientists, civil servants, “experts,” journalists, the cultural community," those "communities" were "at daggers drawn with YOU before you turned on them.

"How did we manage to fritter away about a fifth of the support we had secured in the 2011 election by voting day 2015?" "Why are we by far the least-favoured second-choice party, with the fewest number of people who would consider voting for us?" and "Is it the correct strategy to try for a maximum of 40 per cent of the electors?" are interesting academic questions and party followers, not its leaders should worry over them.

Especially ignore Mr Simpsons concerns that the most likely leaders "are holdovers from the Harper years. They were ministers in Harper governments. They helped frame the government’s policies – at least they did at the margin, given that so many decisions were framed by Stephen Harper. But they defended those policies. They did so in the verbally pugilistic, take-no-prisoners style so typical of the Harper party. They were, are and will be Harperites," he's just annoyed because your, Conservative, opposition "front bench" is qualitatively superior to all but a tiny handful of Prime Minister designate Trudeau's.

Read Mr Simpson's column, "know your enemy," as we used to say ... then do the reverse.

(https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.losangelescriminaldefenseattorneyblog.com%2Ffiles%2F2014%2F08%2Fquote-sun-tzu-los-angeles-dui-defense.jpg&hash=c7f5f12840b7b7931298ededada24e06)

What the CPC needs to do is to:

     1. Reconnect with its legitimate values and ambitions, which are grounded in the families who live in the suburbs around Vancouver, Calgary, Winnipeg, Toronto and Ottawa and in the small cities and towns that stretch from Vancouver Island to the Avalon Peninsula;

     2. Enunciate those values, clearly to all Canadians;

     3. Select a leader who personifies those values ~ and there are many useful candidates, including several "Harperites."

Jeffrey Simpson says "Harperites" with a sneer of contempt; Conservatives need to say it with pride. Jeffrey Simpson represents a fast fading past of elites and croyism; Stephen Harper is the face that showed us the way to a better, more egalitarian society.


Edit: format

Simpson paraphrasing Rex Harrison

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Doz5w2W-jAY

Why can't a Conservative be more like a Liberal?

He is the last troll from whom I would be taking advice.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Brad Sallows on October 28, 2015, 22:57:58
Get used to it.  As the wave of bubbly Barbie journalism about the Trudeau family recedes, there will much more of this "advice": "Go away and be quiet in a retreat for a long time - preferably at least one full election term.  When you come back, be sure to have purged all the experienced members (so that we can then criticize you for lacking depth of experience).  Whoever remains in contention for leadership should be politically to the left of Bob Rae.  Continue navel-gazing intensively and commenting publicly about it.  Above all, do not be misled by those who would attribute the loss to simple voter fatigue, popularity contest politics, and a decade-long campaign waged by the establishment whose noses were put out of joint when Paul Martin was removed."

Conservatives would do better to read Charles Cooke's "The Conservatarian Manifesto" and use it to develop some ideas and policies for a Canadian context.  Those should be developed quickly; every stumble by the federal government - and to a lesser extent, the ON and AB governments - should be met with a discussion of alternatives, not a vaccuum which allows the issue to die quietly.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Jed on October 28, 2015, 23:07:19
Get used to it.  As the wave of bubbly Barbie journalism about the Trudeau family recedes, there will much more of this "advice": "Go away and be quiet in a retreat for a long time - preferably at least one full election term.  When you come back, be sure to have purged all the experienced members (so that we can then criticize you for lacking depth of experience).  Whoever remains in contention for leadership should be politically to the left of Bob Rae.  Continue navel-gazing intensively and commenting publicly about it.  Above all, do not be misled by those who would attribute the loss to simple voter fatigue, popularity contest politics, and a decade-long campaign waged by the establishment whose noses were put out of joint when Paul Martin was removed."

Conservatives would do better to read Charles Cooke's "The Conservatarian Manifesto" and use it to develop some ideas and policies for a Canadian context.  Those should be developed quickly; every stumble by the federal government - and to a lesser extent, the ON and AB governments - should be met with a discussion of alternatives, not a vaccuum which allows the issue to die quietly.

Now that is sage advice.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on October 29, 2015, 08:07:49
Get used to it.  As the wave of bubbly Barbie journalism about the Trudeau family recedes, there will much more of this "advice": "Go away and be quiet in a retreat for a long time - preferably at least one full election term.  When you come back, be sure to have purged all the experienced members (so that we can then criticize you for lacking depth of experience).  Whoever remains in contention for leadership should be politically to the left of Bob Rae.  Continue navel-gazing intensively and commenting publicly about it.  Above all, do not be misled by those who would attribute the loss to simple voter fatigue, popularity contest politics, and a decade-long campaign waged by the establishment whose noses were put out of joint when Paul Martin was removed."

Conservatives would do better to read Charles Cooke's "The Conservatarian Manifesto" and use it to develop some ideas and policies for a Canadian context.  Those should be developed quickly; every stumble by the federal government - and to a lesser extent, the ON and AB governments - should be met with a discussion of alternatives, not a vaccuum which allows the issue to die quietly.


That's why a well managed, fairly lengthy, leadership race is important ... it will give a range of candidates, experienced ones (Harperites, in Jeffrey Simpson's sneering words) and newcomers, too (I hope a handful of rank outsiders will challenge, if only to help propagate a wide range of ideas) opportunities to enunciate and test ideas and visions.

I hope the leadership campaign, per se will start on/about 1 Jan 16 and last until, about, mid 2017, with enough events to keep the Conservative friendly media ~ there's a lot of it in the print media ~ engaged, and attract some interest from the (less friendly) TV networks.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Chris Pook on October 29, 2015, 08:58:21
Meanwhile, walking and chewing gum will be required.

In addition to the internal discussion the Conservatives must keep the Liberals on their toes. That must be the focus of the Interim Leader. To keep the Conservatives as a viable alternative - and to keep pointing out when the Liberals adopt Conservative policies and keep reiterating - I told you so.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on November 05, 2015, 13:45:02
My guess on the interim leader vs party leader strategy is that some contenders for the interim leader job are, in fact, just testing the (support) waters and might even be disappointed if they win because, according to the CPC's own rules the interim leader cannot run to be party leader. Some others are, seriously, interested in  both jobs but they believe, as of now, anyway, that M Trudeau is a two term (eight year) PM and they can enhance their own reputations by being very good interim leaders and then, in 2019, when the CPC, yet again, is the opposition party, they can challenge for the party leadership and be the one who leads the CPC back to power in 2023.

If you are under 50, today, you will still be under 60 when 2023 rolls around. Consider:

Rona Ambrose:   46
Maxime Bernier: 52
Jason Kenney:      47
Kellie Leitch:        45
Erin O'Toole:       42
Michel Rempel:   35
-----------------------
John Baird:          46
James Moore:     39
Peter MacKay:    50
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on November 05, 2015, 18:13:37
So, the interim leader is ...

(https://scontent-ord1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xfp1/v/t1.0-9/12191657_10153746665704204_1411893629390341079_n.png?oh=5a7649d5d7bd698707fbdd4ab7253e4f&oe=56C59A04)
The Honourable Rona Ambrose
Source: http://www.conservative.ca/cpc/welcome-interim-leader-rona-ambrose/
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Technoviking on November 05, 2015, 18:22:50
So, the interim leader is ...

(https://scontent-ord1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xfp1/v/t1.0-9/12191657_10153746665704204_1411893629390341079_n.png?oh=5a7649d5d7bd698707fbdd4ab7253e4f&oe=56C59A04)
The Honourable Rona Ambrose
Source: http://www.conservative.ca/cpc/welcome-interim-leader-rona-ambrose/

"Half of your cabinet are women?  That's cute"  ;)

Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Technoviking on November 05, 2015, 18:26:06
So, the interim leader is ...

(https://scontent-ord1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xfp1/v/t1.0-9/12191657_10153746665704204_1411893629390341079_n.png?oh=5a7649d5d7bd698707fbdd4ab7253e4f&oe=56C59A04)
The Honourable Rona Ambrose
Source: http://www.conservative.ca/cpc/welcome-interim-leader-rona-ambrose/

PS: Is she single?  ;D
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Brihard on November 05, 2015, 18:29:58
Another far-right social conservative. Ugh. They didn't friggin' pay attention to a thing. They aren't going to swing the Canadian political centre - those of us they lost to the iberals in this election - by pandering to the far right base. We aren't looking for an ardent pro-life libertarian to make the Conservatives palatable again.

At least this rules her out for being the 'real' leader of the party. But I am concerned about how this will shape the rebuild.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: GR66 on November 05, 2015, 18:38:20
Another far-right social conservative. Ugh. They didn't friggin' pay attention to a thing. They aren't going to swing the Canadian political centre - those of us they lost to the iberals in this election - by pandering to the far right base. We aren't looking for an ardent pro-life libertarian to make the Conservatives palatable again.

At least this rules her out for being the 'real' leader of the party. But I am concerned about how this will shape the rebuild.

The interim leader isn't about policy.  It's about providing a steady hand and guiding the party through the process of picking a new leader.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Technoviking on November 05, 2015, 18:39:26
We aren't looking for an ardent pro-life libertarian to make the Conservatives palatable again.
What's wrong with defending life at its most vunerable stage?

Oh, right, "women's rights" and all that other double-talk nonsense to justify homicide.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on November 05, 2015, 19:01:27
What's wrong with defending life at its most vunerable stage?

Oh, right, "women's rights" and all that other double-talk nonsense to justify homicide.


It doesn't matter what the leader, interim or new, believes in her or his heart and soul ... all Conservatives who want to govern this country again must understand, and tell all the other Conservatives, that a woman's right to have an abortion, for her own private reasons, is a settled issue. It is fine to express opposition to it, that (free expression) is also a right, but a Conservative leader and a Conservative front bench must always, without fail, vote to sustain "choice" or whatever one wants to call it.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Brihard on November 05, 2015, 19:08:26

It doesn't matter what the leader, interim or new, believes in her or his heart and soul ... all Conservatives who want to govern this country again must understand, and tell all the other Conservatives, that a woman's right to have an abortion, for her own private reasons, is a settled issue. It is fine to express opposition to it, that (free expression) is also a right, but a Conservative leader and a Conservative front bench must always, without fail, vote to sustain "choice" or whatever one wants to call it.

Precisely this.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Jed on November 05, 2015, 19:29:15

It doesn't matter what the leader, interim or new, believes in her or his heart and soul ... all Conservatives who want to govern this country again must understand, and tell all the other Conservatives, that a woman's right to have an abortion, for her own private reasons, is a settled issue. It is fine to express opposition to it, that (free expression) is also a right, but a Conservative leader and a Conservative front bench must always, without fail, vote to sustain "choice" or whatever one wants to call it.

Very true. But for Brihard's edification, If you are prochoice, as the majority of Canadians appear to be, you are condoning the killing of unborn babies for primarily matters of convenience. A hard truth generally not accepted by individuals. 

But we of a certain age have been accused of being baby killers before and I imagine it will be ever thus by those of a lefty persuasion.

 
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Lumber on November 05, 2015, 20:26:22
If you are prochoice, as the majority of Canadians appear to be, you are condoning the killing of unborn babies for primarily matters of convenience.

I just have a lot of shares in planned parenthood...
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: jollyjacktar on November 05, 2015, 20:35:24
I was moonlighting on the east side of Centre Block today and saw some interesting sights.  I did see a very somber looking Jason Kenny come across the way and into the east entrance and I think perhaps Chris Alexander as well. 

What I did see that really made me laugh inside was the sight of three reporters (one was Robert Fife) and camera crews running like the hounds of hell were after them as they belted from behind the Library and out towards the front of the building.  I guess they had tried to or did ambush Mr. Harper as he left out the back door and wanted to get out front to catch the PM leaving.  I don't think I've ever seen the press move like that before.  The reporters were trying to look as dignified as they could while on the run. ;D  Note to self.  Don't become a cameraman, they really looked like they were suffering.

On a side note, there was a ceremony involving a good chunk of the big brass (CDS excluded) and a goodly sized host of military veterans, a children's choir, RCAF musicians etc in the Senate Chambers (?) which went on for some time.  I noted that all of the guest left looking very happy and content with their visit.  Nice to see.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: ballz on November 05, 2015, 20:50:16
Another far-right social conservative. Ugh. They didn't friggin' pay attention to a thing. They aren't going to swing the Canadian political centre - those of us they lost to the iberals in this election - by pandering to the far right base. We aren't looking for an ardent pro-life libertarian to make the Conservatives palatable again.

At least this rules her out for being the 'real' leader of the party. But I am concerned about how this will shape the rebuild.

I haven't seen anything about her that appears libertarian to me, other than her claiming to be one.

While pro-life libertarians exist (not uncommon but not the majority from my experience) and the position can logically be justified using libertarian principles, most of the other stuff is pretty clear cut. You can be a libertarian with social conservative views/values, but you can't really call yourself a libertarian if you advocate social conservative policies.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Brad Sallows on November 05, 2015, 21:20:13
>We aren't looking for an ardent pro-life libertarian to make the Conservatives palatable again.

However did they create the illusion of governing as centrists - regardless of their personal beliefs - so successfully that the Liberals decided to move left of the NDP as a campaign strategy?

It was a short vacation from the politics of fear-mongering, hidden agendas, extremism, etc.  Back to your regular anti-Con programming.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Brihard on November 05, 2015, 23:32:32
>We aren't looking for an ardent pro-life libertarian to make the Conservatives palatable again.

However did they create the illusion of governing as centrists - regardless of their personal beliefs - so successfully that the Liberals decided to move left of the NDP as a campaign strategy?

It was a short vacation from the politics of fear-mongering, hidden agendas, extremism, etc.  Back to your regular anti-Con programming.

I have voted Conservative before, and likely will again, so you can wind your neck in. I just have no time for the religious-right, Reform element within the party. I am not afraid of the Conservatives, because the courts will wind in most of their silliest nonsense. I do have concerns about some of their policies, and I find some of their policies *** backwards.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: SeaKingTacco on November 06, 2015, 00:07:01
I think Ms Ambrose is a good choice for interim leader.

She is experienced, telegenic and she will be hard for the Liberals to counter-attack, especially after making a big deal about women in politics.

The real fun will be when the actual leadership race begins...
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on November 09, 2015, 20:22:05
The Globe and Mail reports the obvious: (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/kellie-leitch-mulling-run-for-conservative-leadership/article27170879/) Dr Kellie Leitch, 45, is mulling an early entry into the CPC leadership race.

(https://media.licdn.com/mpr/mpr/shrinknp_400_400/p/2/000/0a8/2cf/27f75a8.jpg)

I described Dr Leitch, as I did Jason Kenney, as an "energizer bunny" because she was in so many ridings in the lead-up to and during the recent election campaign: doing favours for other Conservatives and collecting loyalty in return.


Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Privateer on November 09, 2015, 20:36:37
And an update on someone who is not in the race, at least for now... James Moore:

Former Minister of Industry James Moore to join Dentons


link: http://www.dentons.com/en/whats-different-about-dentons/connecting-you-to-talented-lawyers-around-the-globe/news/2015/november/former-minister-of-industry-james-moore-to-join-dentons (http://www.dentons.com/en/whats-different-about-dentons/connecting-you-to-talented-lawyers-around-the-globe/news/2015/november/former-minister-of-industry-james-moore-to-join-dentons)

Quote
Dentons is pleased to announce that James Moore is joining our Firm as Senior Business Advisor. Based in our Vancouver office, James will be providing strategic advice to clients in British Columbia, across Canada and around the world.

(Dentons LLP is a "global" law firm, that recently swallowed merged with Fraser Milner Casgrain LLP in Vancouver.)
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Privateer on November 18, 2015, 15:09:32
Denis Lebel named deputy leader of Conservative caucus, and former Speaker of the House, Andrew Scheer, named Leader in the House

link: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/denis-lebel-named-deputy-leader-of-conservative-caucus/article27319016/ (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/denis-lebel-named-deputy-leader-of-conservative-caucus/article27319016/)

Quote

Opposition Leader Rona Ambrose has chosen a veteran Quebec MP to serve as deputy leader of the Conservative caucus.

Denis Lebel had been among the candidates vying for the post of interim leader last month, but lost out to Ambrose for the top spot.

He’s largely considered responsible for the party’s better-than-expected showing in that province in the October election; there are now 12 Conservative MPs from Quebec.

Lebel says he’s excited to represent the values of Canadians in the House and being a strong opposition voice.

Ambrose also announced that former Speaker Andrew Scheer will serve as the party’s House leader.

Scheer, who represents a Saskatchewan riding, says he’s experienced life on the opposition benches and is used to some of the work that entails and will also bring his experience as Speaker to his new job.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on November 28, 2015, 10:50:26

     Quote from: Altair on Today at 00:29:01
     
Quote
Well, until the right gets their house in order in Canada
     FTFY



This, which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Globe and Mail[/], is germane:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/globe-politics-insider/outside-the-bubble-trudeaus-honeymoon-has-a-lot-of-life-left-in-it/article27518614/
Quote
(https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fbeta.images.theglobeandmail.com%2Fmedia%2Fwww%2Fimages%2Fflag%2Fgam-masthead.png&hash=19ff3553db0adc5a5af34a8cb80569c3)
Outside the bubble, Trudeau’s honeymoon has a lot of life left in it

SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Adam Radwanski
The Globe and Mail

Published Friday, Nov. 27, 2015

Roughly a month after Justin Trudeau’s Liberals won power, pundits were already tripping over each other to pronounce that harsh realities – the fallout from the Paris terrorist attacks, the state of our country’s finances – meant the political honeymoon was already over.

If it wasn’t over then, maybe it should be now that the new government has conceded it will break its campaign promise to bring 25,000 Syrian refugees to Canada by year’s end.

But by all appearances, outside the Ottawa bubble, the honeymoon is still going strong. And to look at what the Liberals are currently able to achieve through imagery and attitude alone is to get the sense it could very well last longer than most – to the extent that if there is any risk posed to Mr. Trudeau by early perceptions, it is a false sense of security.

Every opinion poll since the Oct. 19 election has shown the Liberals with more support than they got that day. Chalk that up to having a fairly easy time of striking an appealing contrast to Conservative predecessors who had overstayed their welcome.

Mr. Trudeau went abroad to a pair of international summits, in his second week on the job, and endured media criticism for underreacting to what had happened in Paris. But if anything penetrated, for those who disliked Stephen Harper’s presence on the international stage, it was probably the clips of the comparatively dashing and self-assured new PM being fawned over in the Philippines.

He held a first ministers’ meeting, and critics pointed out the confab didn’t really seem to achieve much of substance. But what (if anything) stood out to most people was the Prime Minister bothering to hold a conference with provincial premiers at all – something Mr. Harper hadn’t deigned to do since last decade.

It remains to be seen if Mr. Trudeau and other world leaders will settle on anything of consequence at this coming week’s United Nations climate-change conference in Paris. But he may be able to impress many Canadians just through lofty rhetoric and the embrace of ambitious goals, as he ostensibly commits the country to a cause in which Mr. Harper did little to hide his disinterest.

As for refugees, even some usually cynical commentators have responded to Mr. Trudeau abandoning his self-imposed deadline and scaling back his commitment to government (as opposed to private) sponsorship by praising him for being less stubborn than Mr. Harper.

To the extent the Liberals are facing criticism for their handling of that file, the imagery could again be more politically important. There will soon be daily footage of refugees gratefully arriving on our soil and Canadians pitching in to help them get settled. Maybe that would have happened under the Tories eventually, but many won’t believe that – and the Liberals, Mr. Trudeau in particular, are better at inserting themselves into such stories without coming off as crass.

It is possible to see the pattern continuing even through next spring’s budget. The Liberals may invite criticism by projecting a deficit bigger than the $10-billion one in their platform. They’ll also easily make good on campaign promises such as increasing taxes for the rich and lowering them for the “middle class,” which people who only follow these things casually are more likely to notice.

The gap in how the new government is perceived inside and outside the bubble, in other words, might only grow in the months ahead. Understandably, it’s the latter with which the Liberals will be more concerned. But that doesn’t mean they can afford to get too comfortable.

Theirs is a party for which arrogance has often proven pervasive and toxic. The current crowd of Liberals may have learned its lesson earlier this year, when some pre-election overconfidence contributed to a temporary dive in the polls. But there are occasional hints – the declarations that “Canada is back,” or Mr. Trudeau’s comment this week that he left people who doubted him “in the dust” – that it is still not entirely immune.

With the way the Liberals’ first term has been set up, including a promise to get back to balanced budgets by the end of it, the second half could be considerably tougher than the first: At least a couple of their many rookie ministers will inevitably cause them grief. High expectations may clash with the federal government’s limited capacity to directly impact lives. The Conservatives might be energized by a new leader. The more distance from Mr. Harper’s time in office, the less a stylistic contrast with him will matter.

The longer the Liberals’ honeymoon lasts, the more the accumulated goodwill might help them deal with whatever hits them later. They should be prepared, though, for when that perception gap starts to shrink.


I think Mr Radwanski is, broadly, correct: the Liberals are going to enjoy rather a long honeymoon with Canadians, but they have some inherent, inbuilt flaws ~

     1. They remain a divided party. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is wildly popular, in the party, in the country, in the whole world, actually, but he has not, yet, offered any sort of visions that will, possibly, heal the deep wounds that his
         own father inflicted on the party in the late 1960s. There is still a HUGE gulf between the St Laurent/Pearson/Turner/Manley/Martin Liberals and the Trudeau/Axeworthy/Chrétien/Dion/Trudeau Liberals and, eventually, it must be bridged;

     2. It is, still, the same old arrogant, corrupt political machine it always was.

What does this mean for Conservatives?

First: it is important for Conservatives to honour Prime Minister Stephen Harper ~ he led the country in, broadly and generally, the right direction, through difficult and dangerous circumstances. His "legacy" must not be discarded just because he was, personally, unpopular.

But, second: popularity matters. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is holding office today because, in the main, Canadians "like" him. They like him and that makes them inclined to trust him, to give him the benefit of the doubt.

Third: the media matters, too. One of the reasons Canadians "like" Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and dislike prime Minister Harper is that the media painted them in different 'shades:' bright and sunny and friendly for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and dark and mean and secretive for Prime Minister Harper. It doesn't matter if Stephen Harper is, actually, very nice but just introverted and shy, the media gets to describe him to 99% of us because we can no longer meet and talk to our leaders. The days of Lester Pearson and John Diefenbaker making "whistle stop" tours across the country are long gone ...

          (https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.usask.ca%2Fdiefenbaker%2Fgalleries%2Fvirtual_exhibit%2Ffederal_elections_1957-1958%2Fimages%2Ffull_images%2Fpic-1-4.jpg&hash=c1b4a90ad34f3c4bcf79cae3186a61d2)

               ... now we "meet" our leaders on TV and on the Internet, and what they say to us is filtered by the likes of Peter Mansbridge or some ferociously bright young social media wizard from Chicago.

Finally: the Liberals will, almost certainly, fall back into their old, familiar comfortable patterns. Conservatives must not emulate the; Conservatives must be scrupulously honest and humble ... think about John and Olive Diefenbaker keeping preserves under the bed and demanding to pay a fair rent for 24 Sussex Drive; and, Conservatives must eschew favouritism and even pork barrelling, despite it's loooooong tradition as staple of Canadian politics; and so on and so forth.

In my opinion the CPC made the smart move in selecting Rona Ambrose as interim leader. I suspect that the political calculus for the next real leader includes: will Prime Minister Justin Trudeau be a one or two term prime minister? (I continue to maintain that, absent a great crisis, we have seen the end of three and four term prime ministers ... six to ten years and out is the new rule) I understand that Erin O'Toole, for example, will not contest the leadership in this session - citing the ages of his children as a determining factor - but might be available after 2019, if the Liberals are still in office. Others may make similar calculations.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: George Wallace on November 28, 2015, 11:35:05
.........

But, second: popularity matters. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is holding office today because, in the main, Canadians "like" him. They like him and that makes them inclined to trust him, to give him the benefit of the doubt.

...........

I would submit that it is less that Trudeau won a popularity vote and that people like him; but more that Harper LOST the "Popularity Vote" and as you said, people did not look at the good that his Party was doing, but voted on Harper's personality.  Trudeau's win was, in my opinion, not "his win", but more Harper's loss.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: PuckChaser on November 28, 2015, 11:48:43
Considering Harper was right up there with Trudeau on preferred PM polling right until the end, I also disagree that Canadians as a majority like him.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on November 29, 2015, 20:15:39
Jennifer Ditchburn, filing for the Canadian Press, is quoted in the Hiffington Post (http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/11/29/tory-leadership-race_n_8677468.html) as saying that "A consensus has begun to emerge inside the caucus that the party should take time to regroup and put off a leadership vote until early 2017. Recent signals that Ontario MP Kellie Leitch was on the verge of announcing her candidacy went over poorly among weary colleagues and party members, insiders say ... "People are just tired and nobody wants it to start now,'' said one longtime Conservative activist who has ties to a potential contestant but was not authorized to speak publicly."

My personal opinion is that the CPC caucus chose well in selecting Ms Ambrose to be the interim leader, and a year or 18 months, until say late spring 2017, is quite acceptable; it allows time to set rule and for potential leadership candidates to "test the waters" and build (more) support.

On thing I would like to see (hope to see) is greater influence for the caucus and less for the riding association, the "grass roots." I know that what I'm advocating is less "democratic," but in my opinion, in matters like this ~ managing a political party ~ parties are too easily highjacked by "activists" and too much "grass roots democracy" leads us to where the Americans are today ... not, in my view, someplace any Canadian political party wants to go. I don't, necessarily, want to see us go completely the way of the Aussies and Brits, but I would like to see the 100ish sitting MPs have more votes than 330+ riding associations because I think the sitting MPs are better judges of what it takes to win the next election than are the local party "activists."
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Infanteer on November 29, 2015, 20:34:51
I concur Edward.  The line between "grassroots" and "demagoguery" or "mob rule" is thin, in my view.  Look at the impact the Tea Party has had in the states in derailing the effectiveness of Congress.

One of my favorite political pieces by Edmund Burke, found here (http://press-pubs.uchicago.edu/founders/documents/v1ch13s7.html), is worthing posting at full length.

Quote
I am sorry I cannot conclude without saying a word on a topic touched upon by my worthy colleague. I wish that topic had been passed by at a time when I have so little leisure to discuss it. But since he has thought proper to throw it out, I owe you a clear explanation of my poor sentiments on that subject.

He tells you that "the topic of instructions has occasioned much altercation and uneasiness in this city;" and he expresses himself (if I understand him rightly) in favour of the coercive authority of such instructions.

Certainly, gentlemen, it ought to be the happiness and glory of a representative to live in the strictest union, the closest correspondence, and the most unreserved communication with his constituents. Their wishes ought to have great weight with him; their opinion, high respect; their business, unremitted attention. It is his duty to sacrifice his repose, his pleasures, his satisfactions, to theirs; and above all, ever, and in all cases, to prefer their interest to his own. But his unbiassed opinion, his mature judgment, his enlightened conscience, he ought not to sacrifice to you, to any man, or to any set of men living. These he does not derive from your pleasure; no, nor from the law and the constitution. They are a trust from Providence, for the abuse of which he is deeply answerable. Your representative owes you, not his industry only, but his judgment; and he betrays, instead of serving you, if he sacrifices it to your opinion.

My worthy colleague says, his will ought to be subservient to yours. If that be all, the thing is innocent. If government were a matter of will upon any side, yours, without question, ought to be superior. But government and legislation are matters of reason and judgment, and not of inclination; and what sort of reason is that, in which the determination precedes the discussion; in which one set of men deliberate, and another decide; and where those who form the conclusion are perhaps three hundred miles distant from those who hear the arguments?

To deliver an opinion, is the right of all men; that of constituents is a weighty and respectable opinion, which a representative ought always to rejoice to hear; and which he ought always most seriously to consider. But authoritative instructions; mandates issued, which the member is bound blindly and implicitly to obey, to vote, and to argue for, though contrary to the clearest conviction of his judgment and conscience,--these are things utterly unknown to the laws of this land, and which arise from a fundamental mistake of the whole order and tenor of our constitution.

Parliament is not a congress of ambassadors from different and hostile interests; which interests each must maintain, as an agent and advocate, against other agents and advocates; but parliament is a deliberative assembly of one nation, with one interest, that of the whole; where, not local purposes, not local prejudices, ought to guide, but the general good, resulting from the general reason of the whole. You choose a member indeed; but when you have chosen him, he is not member of Bristol, but he is a member of parliament. If the local constituent should have an interest, or should form an hasty opinion, evidently opposite to the real good of the rest of the community, the member for that place ought to be as far, as any other, from any endeavour to give it effect. I beg pardon for saying so much on this subject. I have been unwillingly drawn into it; but I shall ever use a respectful frankness of communication with you. Your faithful friend, your devoted servant, I shall be to the end of my life: a flatterer you do not wish for.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Good2Golf on November 29, 2015, 20:46:59
Good words! :nod:
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Chris Pook on November 29, 2015, 21:35:26
Jennifer Ditchburn, filing for the Canadian Press, is quoted in the Hiffington Post (http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/11/29/tory-leadership-race_n_8677468.html) as saying that "A consensus has begun to emerge inside the caucus that the party should take time to regroup and put off a leadership vote until early 2017. Recent signals that Ontario MP Kellie Leitch was on the verge of announcing her candidacy went over poorly among weary colleagues and party members, insiders say ... "People are just tired and nobody wants it to start now,'' said one longtime Conservative activist who has ties to a potential contestant but was not authorized to speak publicly."

My personal opinion is that the CPC caucus chose well in selecting Ms Ambrose to be the interim leader, and a year or 18 months, until say late spring 2017, is quite acceptable; it allows time to set rule and for potential leadership candidates to "test the waters" and build (more) support.

On thing I would like to see (hope to see) is greater influence for the caucus and less for the riding association, the "grass roots." I know that what I'm advocating is less "democratic," but in my opinion, in matters like this ~ managing a political party ~ parties are too easily highjacked by "activists" and too much "grass roots democracy" leads us to where the Americans are today ... not, in my view, someplace any Canadian political party wants to go. I don't, necessarily, want to see us go completely the way of the Aussies and Brits, but I would like to see the 100ish sitting MPs have more votes than 330+ riding associations because I think the sitting MPs are better judges of what it takes to win the next election than are the local party "activists."

ERC -

If you want to see what the world looks like when the Parliamentary Party (Caucus) and the Membership (Grassroots) get out of step take a look at Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour Party.

He has entirely lost the Caucus, and much of the membership, but is held in place by Bob-a-Job members and the Union blocks.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/12021977/Labour-MPs-have-only-one-option-a-mutiny.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/12023823/Jeremy-Corbyn-on-verge-of-whipping-MPs-to-block-Syrian-air-strikes.html

The Labour Party adopted the democratic solution of offering its leadership votes for sale. 

I am with you on the need for reasonable deliberation.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Thucydides on November 30, 2015, 17:09:59
You can also look at Allison Redford's ascention to Alberta PC leadership as being fuelled by activists (she ran Alberta as a Liberal, even though she was officially a "PC"), or the Ontario Liberal Party under McGuinty and Wynn.

One should not think of the TEA PArty activists in the US, or Reform and Wildrose in Canada as being "obstructinist"; rather as a response against the current political establishment which seems to be working hard to insulate itself from the effects of their own policies. Unless the political establishment starts getting back into line with the population, I predict more of this happening.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: cupper on November 30, 2015, 22:01:10
Fortunately we don't have the primary system that the US has which allows the extreme ends of the spectrum to influence the choice of party leader. As we've seen in the last and current presidential primaries the GOP candidates duke it out to see who can run farthest to the right, only to pivot back and lose credibility when they get to the general election and try moving back towards the center. You see the same to a certain degree on the Dems side this year as well.

Also, we don't have the gerrymandered electoral map that the US has which essentially guarantees stagnation in the split in Congress, and the close results of the presidential race.

Our problem in Canada seems to be finding a consensus candidate for leadership that truly represents the views of all regions of the country. The western provinces, especially Alberta are far more small "c" conservative than the eastern part of the country, which as we know lead to the rise of the Reform Party and the eventual takeover of the former Progressive Conservative Party. With the exception of a few popular eastern conservative MPs like Peter MacKay, they ultimately brought about the ascendency of the conservative right.

The question is can the CPC eventually find the consensus leader that will be acceptable to all regions of the country?
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Chris Pook on November 30, 2015, 22:29:37
Don't need to.

Just need the majority of seats in the House.

See you in four years time.  :)
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on December 01, 2015, 07:23:39
Jennifer Ditchburn, filing for the Canadian Press, is quoted in the Hiffington Post (http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/11/29/tory-leadership-race_n_8677468.html) as saying that "A consensus has begun to emerge inside the caucus that the party should take time to regroup and put off a leadership vote until early 2017. Recent signals that Ontario MP Kellie Leitch was on the verge of announcing her candidacy went over poorly among weary colleagues and party members, insiders say ... "People are just tired and nobody wants it to start now,'' said one longtime Conservative activist who has ties to a potential contestant but was not authorized to speak publicly."

...


Further to this, Adam Radwanski, writing in the Globe and Mail (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/tories-appear-in-no-hurry-to-choose-harpers-replacement/article27522216/), agrees with Ms Ditchburn and says:

    "Rona Ambrose should probably settle into Stornoway a bit.

     As the federal Conservatives’ national council prepares to meet next weekend for the first time since this fall’s election, the party seems in no hurry to select Stephen Harper’s long-term replacement as leader.

     While it’s unlikely the date for the leadership vote will be announced until the new year, the Tories appear to be headed to holding it only in 2017, or fall of 2016 at the very earliest.

     Despite an early push from some Conservatives to hold the vote next spring, there now appears to be a near-consensus among caucus members and others that it’s best to go slow. “There’s nobody saying ‘let’s do this
     thing in May,’ ” said one Conservative official involved in the process.

     That change of heart among some Conservatives owes, in some measure, to a desire to complete postmortems on their defeat, and for a period of open debate about their future after the rigid discipline of the Harper era."
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Remius on December 07, 2015, 14:51:45
Not surprisngly...

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-cpc-leadership-poll-1.3353882

It seems that Peter McKay leads in polling about the next CPC leader.  Way too early yes but interesting.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: ballz on December 19, 2015, 20:49:35
The title is a bit misleading, it should say Maxime Bernier is strongly considering preparing a bid for leadership....

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/12/18/maxime-bernier-conservative-leadership-race_n_8840846.html?ncid=fcbklnkcahpmg00000008

Quote
A self-described libertarian, he said he'll focus his platform on a more decentralized federalism, a smaller government less involved in Canadians' day-to-day lives, as well as more personal freedoms.

He might champion a flat tax — he wrote a book on the subject, he noted. He'll certainly call for balanced-budgets legislation — just like the one the Liberals plan to repeal. Since the election, he has already called for an end to corporate subsidies — fully aware of the paradox, since he dished them out as industry minister.

He'd have my vote!
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: daftandbarmy on December 19, 2015, 21:12:20

Further to this, Adam Radwanski, writing in the Globe and Mail (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/tories-appear-in-no-hurry-to-choose-harpers-replacement/article27522216/), agrees with Ms Ditchburn and says:

    "Rona Ambrose should probably settle into Stornoway a bit.

     As the federal Conservatives’ national council prepares to meet next weekend for the first time since this fall’s election, the party seems in no hurry to select Stephen Harper’s long-term replacement as leader.

     While it’s unlikely the date for the leadership vote will be announced until the new year, the Tories appear to be headed to holding it only in 2017, or fall of 2016 at the very earliest.

     Despite an early push from some Conservatives to hold the vote next spring, there now appears to be a near-consensus among caucus members and others that it’s best to go slow. “There’s nobody saying ‘let’s do this
     thing in May,’ ” said one Conservative official involved in the process.

     That change of heart among some Conservatives owes, in some measure, to a desire to complete postmortems on their defeat, and for a period of open debate about their future after the rigid discipline of the Harper era."


Good idea.

The Liberals, after their defeat to Harper's conservatives, went through a few too many losers in an effort to push a leader into position too soon.

That is, unless you favour an academic who likes to proclaim that his is the 'Natural ruling party for Canada'.  ::)
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Altair on December 19, 2015, 21:33:50
Good idea.

The Liberals, after their defeat to Harper's conservatives, went through a few too many losers in an effort to push a leader into position too soon.

That is, unless you favour an academic who likes to proclaim that his is the 'Natural ruling party for Canada'.  ::)
Liberals didn't have much of a choice.

Conservatives were in a minority goverment l, next election could have been at any time. Who would feel confident going into an election without a permanent leader?

That said, the CPC have time, might as well use it.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: milnews.ca on January 14, 2016, 07:53:06
Hints of another businessman considering politics, only here in Canada (http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/conservative-leadership-kevin-o-leary-1.3401967) ...
Quote
The Conservative leadership race has yet to start, but potential candidates are gearing up, including celebrity businessman and ex-Dragon Kevin O'Leary and some high-profile former cabinet ministers.

The actual convention isn't expected for another 18 months.

But the extra time is allowing outsiders to consider putting their name forward, including the outspoken Toronto business mogul O'Leary.

"I thought at some point, someone is going to say to me, if you can be such a critic, why don't you do better? Why don't you try it?" O'Leary told CBC News. "I thought to myself, hmmm, maybe I should."

The former panellist on CBC's Dragon's Den describes himself as politically agnostic, but noted, "I'm never going to run for the NDP. They don't even like me."

Not surprisingly, O'Leary said his main motivation for considering a leadership run is the economy.

"Every word that comes out of a politician's mouth, including mine, should I elect to go for this, is how does it create the next incremental job," he said. "That's what I care about."

O'Leary raised eyebrows this week with his offer to invest a million dollars in Alberta's oilpatch if NDP Premier Rachel Notley stepped aside ...
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: dapaterson on January 14, 2016, 08:10:48
Trump without the hair.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Altair on January 14, 2016, 19:25:26
Kevin O'leary considering a run at the leadership of the federal conservatives? Dear god, make it so.

http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/politics/conservative-leadership-kevin-o-leary-1.3401967
Quote
The Conservative leadership race has yet to start, but potential candidates are gearing up, including celebrity businessman and ex-Dragon Kevin O'Leary and some high-profile former cabinet ministers.

The actual convention isn't expected for another 18 months.

But the extra time is allowing outsiders to consider putting their name forward, including the outspoken Toronto business mogul O'Leary.

"I thought at some point, someone is going to say to me, if you can be such a critic, why don't you do better? Why don't you try it?" O'Leary told CBC News. "I thought to myself, hmmm, maybe I should."

The former panellist on CBC'sDragons' Den describes himself as politically agnostic, but noted, "I'm never going to run for the NDP. They don't even like me."

Not surprisingly, O'Leary said his main motivation for considering a leadership run is the economy.

"Every word that comes out of a politician's mouth, including mine, should I elect to go for this, is how does it create the next incremental job," he said. "That's what I care about."

O'Leary raised eyebrows this week with his offer to invest a million dollars in Alberta's oilpatch if NDP Premier Rachel Notley stepped aside. 

The businessman admits he's a polarizing figure, but argues he's just telling the truth. If that sounds like someone running for the top job south of the border, it should. O'Leary freely acknowledges he is inspired by the campaign success of Donald Trump.

"I know Trump. I know his family. I've watched him work. I think he's smart as a fox," he said, adding that Trump's approach to politics taps into a growing fatigue with politicians in general coupled with a desire for better management.

Field wide open

O'Leary admits he would be an outsider in a race that will likely contain many former cabinet ministers. Other potential candidates will be deciding this month whether to make the long commitment to return the Conservatives to power. Tony Clement is one of them.

"I have been receiving lots of emails, texts and social media requests, but I have not made any decisions," said Clement. "The party has to move forward, and there are a bunch of us looking forward."

Kellie Leitch is the most organized according to Conservative sources, and is the only one who is definitely in the race for now. She may, however, be tainted by her involvement in the proposed barbaric cultural practices tip line that she helped to announce during the election.

Jason Kenney, often seen as the heir apparent to Harper, is considering his options. Sources say, however, he is aware that he would be seeking to become the fourth leader of the party from Calgary. There are also organizers in Alberta urging him to unite the right in that province to defeat the NDP in the next provincial election.

Maxime Bernier is perhaps the second most organized prospect. He has made several trips across the country, including several to British Columbia to determine his level of support. He is fluently bilingual, charismatic and popular for his libertarian beliefs.

Then there are the contenders who are still deciding, such as Lisa Raitt. She is seen to have broad support in the party, and is a woman whose personal story will appeal to voters. When asked about whether she would throw her name in, she said it was too soon to say definitively.

"I am thinking about leadership. I also know that I need to know what our party is looking at in terms of rules and what our party is looking at in terms of what kind of leadership discussion is going to be happening in the coming months," she said.

Then there are the other names mentioned behind the scenes — Peter Mackay, Jean Charest and Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall.

'Being bilingual is a must'

Former cabinet minister James Moore left politics last year and said the reasons for that decision have not changed, so he is not considering a run for leader.

But he does know the qualities he'd like to see in whoever wins the job. Moore said they must have leadership experience, be of a similar generation as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and they must be bilingual.

"I think we've long passed the point in this country where the ability to speak both of Canada's official languages is a debate. I think anybody who is aspiring to be the prime minister of Canada has to be not just capable but fluent in both of Canada's official languages. Almost one in five Canadians speaks French first. It's not just important for the prime minister to communicate to all Canadians, but to be able to listen to all Canadians," Moore told CBC from his new office with the law firm Denton's in Vancouver.

On the possibility of O'Leary running, Moore pointed to other high-profile business people who have run for the leadership before, from Peter Pocklington to Brian Mulroney to Belinda Stronach.

Moore noted that most Conservatives he has spoken with are saying the more candidates in the race for the Conservative leadership the better. 

"Mr. O'Leary brings a different style to the race," Moore said. "I don't know if he's maybe inspired by the successes in the short term that Donald Trump has had in the United States. But he's a person with some strong opinions who if he wants to offer them in public life, I think he'll find it a very different environment. But I think people will be interested to hear what he has to say."

Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on January 15, 2016, 08:23:33
See two articles in the Ottawa Citizen:

     Why fire-breathing Kevin O’Leary is a good fit for Conservative leader (http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/michael+tandt+fire+breathing+kevin+leary+good/11652172/story.html); and

     ‘I am not Donald Trump’: Kevin O’Leary denies parallels with bombastic American (http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/national/donald+trump+kevin+99leary+denies+parallels+with+bombastic/11652460/story.html).

The anti-Conservative (Harper Hater®) faction will do themselves no favours if they underestimate Kevin O'Leary and what he brings to the CPC leadership contest.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Remius on January 15, 2016, 12:10:16
See two articles in the Ottawa Citizen:

     Why fire-breathing Kevin O’Leary is a good fit for Conservative leader (http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/michael+tandt+fire+breathing+kevin+leary+good/11652172/story.html); and

     ‘I am not Donald Trump’: Kevin O’Leary denies parallels with bombastic American (http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/national/donald+trump+kevin+99leary+denies+parallels+with+bombastic/11652460/story.html).

The anti-Conservative (Harper Hater®) faction will do themselves no favours if they underestimate Kevin O'Leary and what he brings to the CPC leadership contest.

Agreed.  And i think that the comparison between him and Donald Trump is superficial at best.  But...

i think the real problem will be how the CPC reacts to him putting his name forward and running.   The LPC can just sit back and watch the CPC implode with this one.  I believe his biggest critic will be conservatives of teh political stripe.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Altair on January 15, 2016, 13:36:25
See two articles in the Ottawa Citizen:

     Why fire-breathing Kevin O’Leary is a good fit for Conservative leader (http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/michael+tandt+fire+breathing+kevin+leary+good/11652172/story.html); and

     ‘I am not Donald Trump’: Kevin O’Leary denies parallels with bombastic American (http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/national/donald+trump+kevin+99leary+denies+parallels+with+bombastic/11652460/story.html).

The anti-Conservative (Harper Hater®) faction will do themselves no favours if they underestimate Kevin O'Leary and what he brings to the CPC leadership contest.
I'm not so sure, I think Kevin O'Leary is gifted with the ability to piss people right off.

I was happy when he left dragons den.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Humphrey Bogart on January 15, 2016, 13:42:49
I'm not so sure, I think Kevin O'Leary is gifted with the ability to piss people right off.

I was happy when he left dragons den.

Yep,

He's like Stephen Harper, only with cocaine laced coffee running througn his veins. 

The Conservatives need someone actually likeable. 
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: GR66 on January 15, 2016, 14:29:25
Yep,

He's like Stephen Harper, only with cocaine laced coffee running througn his veins. 

The Conservatives need someone actually likeable.

Doesn't mean he would not be good for the campaign.  He may voice the hard opinions that the more "political" candidates wouldn't put forward and allow all of them more clearly differentiate themselves from both the Liberals and Mr. O'Leary. 
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Rocky Mountains on January 15, 2016, 14:44:37
My criticism of Rona Ambrose is lack if likability.  Harper wore the lie that he was heartless and uncaring.  How would O'Leary be perceived.  He's a tough sell.  My two options are Peter McKay or possibly Maxime Bernier, but it's really time for an Ontario leader.  In the last 47 years we have had 4 Quebecers - 34 years / 2 Albertans - 10 years / 2 Ontarians - 3 years / 1 British Columbian - <1 year.  I credited Turner and Martin to Ontario although Turner also lived in BC and Quebec and Martin seems to have also lived in Quebec.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on January 15, 2016, 14:52:43
Doesn't mean he would not be good for the campaign.  He may voice the hard opinions that the more "political" candidates wouldn't put forward and allow all of them more clearly differentiate themselves from both the Liberals and Mr. O'Leary.


'sacly! He will be, may be if he actually does take a shot at it, the sort of lightning rod that can take the heat off others. Not a hope in hell of winning, I guess ... at this time, but useful, to the process, in the leadership campaign year.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Rocky Mountains on January 15, 2016, 14:53:11
My criticism of Rona Ambrose is lack of likability.  Harper wore the lie that he was heartless and uncaring.  How would O'Leary be perceived.  He's a tough sell.  My two options are Peter McKay or possibly Maxime Bernier, but it's really time for an Ontario leader.  In the last 47 years we have had 4 Quebecers - 34 years / 2 Albertans - 10 years / 2 Ontarians - 3 years / 1 British Columbian - <1 year.  I credited Turner and Martin to Ontario although Turner also lived in BC and Quebec and Martin seems to have also lived in Quebec.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on January 15, 2016, 14:58:12
My criticism of Rona Ambrose is lack if likability.  Harper wore the lie that he was heartless and uncaring.  How would O'Leary be perceived.  He's a tough sell.  My two options are Peter McKay or possibly Maxime Bernier, but it's really time for an Ontario leader.  In the last 47 years we have had 4 Quebecers - 34 years / 2 Albertans - 10 years / 2 Ontarians - 3 years / 1 British Columbian - <1 year.  I credited Turner and Martin to Ontario although Turner also lived in BC and Quebec and Martin seems to have also lived in Quebec.


How about ...

(https://coloneltedcampbell.files.wordpress.com/2015/10/kellie_leitch.jpg?w=172&h=229) (https://coloneltedcampbell.files.wordpress.com/2016/01/clementtony_cpc.jpg?w=840) or (https://coloneltedcampbell.files.wordpress.com/2015/10/raittlisa_cpc.jpg?w=840)

These two say they're "out," but ...

(https://coloneltedcampbell.files.wordpress.com/2015/10/bairdjohn_cpc.jpg?w=840) (https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fmedia.zuza.com%2F2%2Fc%2F2c3fb1a2-72ff-41a8-9f67-79192fc77ad5%2Fotoole3___Content.jpg&hash=e3703bdeb62a3352d3ed13402e16c61a)
... if they got enough "fan mail" either or both might reconsider.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Thucydides on January 15, 2016, 17:50:00
Given that European nativists, Donald Trump and even the Ford Brothers are all reactions by voters to politicians who refuse to address the issues the citizens want to see addressed, I have a feeling that likability will become secondary to being perceived as a straight talker and problem solver.

Considering that international politics is full of people like Vladimir Putin, who thinks wrestling bears makes him much more attractive to Russian citizens than being "likeable", maybe a change of pace is in order there as well.

I'll be happy to see someone who has a consistent set of principles and is willing to stand by them again.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: daftandbarmy on January 15, 2016, 19:10:10

The anti-Conservative (Harper Hater®) faction will do themselves no favours if they underestimate Kevin O'Leary and what he brings to the CPC leadership contest.

Like billions of dollars?
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Thucydides on January 15, 2016, 19:47:55
Quote from: E.R. Campbell on Today at 08:23:33
Quote
The anti-Conservative (Harper Hater®) faction will do themselves no favours if they underestimate Kevin O'Leary and what he brings to the CPC leadership contest.


Money, energy, high media profile and the ability to speak about issues which most of the political class find toxic or at least far to scary to approach.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Altair on January 18, 2016, 12:47:20
There comes a point where something funny becomes serious and not so funny anymore

Like trump right now.

Kevin O'leary is statistically tied with peter Mackay at around 24 percent support for the leadership of the federal conservatives.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: PuckChaser on January 18, 2016, 13:46:10
Pretty easy for him to poll higher when he's the only one speaking. I don't think MacKay has even come out saying he'd run yet, so if he's got 24% on name alone, that's a pretty strong lead.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: ModlrMike on January 19, 2016, 02:05:10
I wouldn't put it past Mr O'leary to have volunteered to be the sacrificial lamb. He can open discussion on topics that are potentially toxic to more moderate candidates, and thereby allow them to appear more acceptable.


Men judge generally more by the eye than by the hand, for everyone can see and few can feel. Every one sees what you appear to be, few really know what you are. - Machiavelli
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Altair on January 19, 2016, 04:14:43
I wouldn't put it past Mr O'leary to have volunteered to be the sacrificial lamb. He can open discussion on topics that are potentially toxic to more moderate candidates, and thereby allow them to appear more acceptable.


Men judge generally more by the eye than by the hand, for everyone can see and few can feel. Every one sees what you appear to be, few really know what you are. - Machiavelli
I don't think the mans ego is built that way.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on January 19, 2016, 07:27:05
I don't think the mans ego is built that way.


Kevin O'Leary is an adequately educated (BA from Waterloo, MBA from the Ivey School and Western), successful entrepreneur who succeeded on his own merits ~ no silver spoon or trust fund for him. He was a successful entrepreneur and author and turned himself into a bombastic media personality for profit because that niche, the bombastic one, was unfilled here in Canada. Don't make the mistake of confusing his public persona for the man inside.

I'm not sure if he's really interested or not ... my guess remains that he mainly just wants to shake up the political process. The CPC is most likely to field a group of potential leaders who all murmur sweet reason in public and Mr O'Leary, I think, thinks we need someone to shout a few "home truths" about the way we have managed our country for the past, say, 50ish years.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Bird_Gunner45 on January 19, 2016, 07:40:06
There comes a point where something funny becomes serious and not so funny anymore

Like trump right now.

Kevin O'leary is statistically tied with peter Mackay at around 24 percent support for the leadership of the federal conservatives.

One could argue that the same could have been said for Justin Trudeau a few years ago.....
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: George Wallace on January 19, 2016, 13:43:18
Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act.

Quote
Conservatives set date to choose next leader (http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/01/19/conservatives-set-date-to-choose-next-leader.html)
The Toronto Star
By: The Canadian Press, Published on Tue Jan 19 2016

OTTAWA — The Conservative party will choose its next leader on May 27, 2017.

The party says the date allows for a time frame that will provide an exciting and competitive race and a fair and open contest for all potential candidates.

The decision was made over the weekend by the leadership election organizing committee, a small group of party stalwarts in charge of setting the terms for the race.

The specific rules around how the next full-time leader will be chosen will be discussed by the committee in the coming weeks, but the vote will only be open to party members.

Rona Ambrose, an Alberta MP and former Conservative cabinet minister, is currently serving as the party’s interim leader, a position she was elected to after Stephen Harper stepped down on election night.

Several current MPs are believed to be considering a run, along with former Conservative parliamentarians and at least one high-profile outsider, businessman and TV personality Kevin O’Leary.

Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Altair on January 19, 2016, 14:43:58

Kevin O'Leary is an adequately educated (BA from Waterloo, MBA from the Ivey School and Western), successful entrepreneur who succeeded on his own merits ~ no silver spoon or trust fund for him. He was a successful entrepreneur and author and turned himself into a bombastic media personality for profit because that niche, the bombastic one, was unfilled here in Canada. Don't make the mistake of confusing his public persona for the man inside.

I'm not sure if he's really interested or not ... my guess remains that he mainly just wants to shake up the political process. The CPC is most likely to field a group of potential leaders who all murmur sweet reason in public and Mr O'Leary, I think, thinks we need someone to shout a few "home truths" about the way we have managed our country for the past, say, 50ish years.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=AuqemytQ5QA
This is an act to you?
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Fishbone Jones on January 19, 2016, 17:53:16
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=AuqemytQ5QA
This is an act to you?

Not worth answering that. No matter what the answer. If it isn't in total lockstep with your unoriginal thinking, we'd have to endure countless more posts, by you, on the subject. Something, I believe, most here are tired of.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Kilo_302 on January 19, 2016, 18:13:30
Not worth answering that. No matter what the answer. If it isn't in total lockstep with your unoriginal thinking, we'd have to endure countless more posts, by you, on the subject. Something, I believe, most here are tired of.


Not to worry Altair, I'll chime in here  ;D

O'Leary is a blow hard. He's also a moderately successful businessman whose main talent is self-promotion. This latest stunt is an exercise in just that. He has little substance, and the Conservatives would be loathe to even consider him. Then again, their current leader and pretty much the entire cabinet under Harper was pretty underwhelming in terms of intellectual heft, so anything is possible. 
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Altair on January 19, 2016, 18:21:12
Not worth answering that. No matter what the answer. If it isn't in total lockstep with your unoriginal thinking, we'd have to endure countless more posts, by you, on the subject. Something, I believe, most here are tired of.
Yes, god forbid that someone posts things that isn't right leaning, CPC supporting on a military politics board.

Would you like it better if this board was in complete agreement with everyone else?
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: MARS on January 19, 2016, 18:26:41
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=AuqemytQ5QA
This is an act to you?

The entire show was a poorly contrived act - you must have realized that, no? A very pale attempt to replicate CNN's original Crossfire format, pitting extreme left and right views against each other - part of CBC's content shakeup in 2009 in an attempt to reach a broader, and generally less intelligent audience.  Case in point, Don Newman retired that same year and his highly respected - but not very entertaining - Politics program was replaced with....wait for it....Evan Soloman and P&P.  Both shows - the Lang and O'Leary Exchange and P and P rely on bombastic, on air "gotcha"-type exchanges designed to replicate what was happening on the US networks at the time, as a ratings grab.  To me, that marked a signifcant step away from news and towards infotainment.  I've followed Ms. Lang's reporting for years and I KNOW she isn't as dense, obstuse or extreme in her personal and professional views as her producers evidently insisted she (and Mr. O'Leary) act on the Exchange. 

So yeah dude, totally an act.

Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Altair on January 19, 2016, 19:34:41
The entire show was a poorly contrived act - you must have realized that, no? A very pale attempt to replicate CNN's original Crossfire format, pitting extreme left and right views against each other - part of CBC's content shakeup in 2009 in an attempt to reach a broader, and generally less intelligent audience.  Case in point, Don Newman retired that same year and his highly respected - but not very entertaining - Politics program was replaced with....wait for it....Evan Soloman and P&P.  Both shows - the Lang and O'Leary Exchange and P and P rely on bombastic, on air "gotcha"-type exchanges designed to replicate what was happening on the US networks at the time, as a ratings grab.  To me, that marked a signifcant step away from news and towards infotainment.  I've followed Ms. Lang's reporting for years and I KNOW she isn't as dense, obstuse or extreme in her personal and professional views as her producers evidently insisted she (and Mr. O'Leary) act on the Exchange. 

So yeah dude, totally an act.
So it begs the question,  when O'Leary is polling 25 percent support for the leadership, are people supporting the man or the act? I've only seen the act in public. Even last week when he offered to invest a million dollars in the energy industry if Notley quit.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: PuckChaser on January 19, 2016, 19:41:44
So it begs the question,  when O'Leary is polling 25 percent support for the leadership, are people supporting the man or the act? I've only seen the act in public. Even last week when he offered to invest a million dollars in the energy industry if Notley quit.

Once he actually has to debate other issues besides the economy (although that's a major one), we'll see where the poll lands. He's the only guy with a mic right now. No one else has said they'll run, its all speculation.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: MARS on January 19, 2016, 19:57:48
So it begs the question,  when O'Leary is polling 25 percent support for the leadership, are people supporting the man or the act? I've only seen the act in public. Even last week when he offered to invest a million dollars in the energy industry if Notley quit.

I would say people "think" they are supporting the man, but in reality they are supporting the act, because I also think most of the voting public, of all political stripes, is incapable of distinguishing between the two. 

I think it is all and act, everytime any and every politican speaks.  Used car salesmen, every one of them, as I stated somewhere on this board during the election in a drunken rant.  But I stand by that assessment. There are certainly kernels of truth in whatever they are saying, but even outside of an election, words are important, as we are seeing with the statements coming out of the Cabinet retreat.  And that is acting.  The MND acting like the coaltion meeting is no big deal.  Rona Ambrose acting like she has a ******* clue on how to help the PM solve the econominc crisis.  The Global Affairs minister acting like we are actually gonna do something about what happened Burkina Faso.  The Immigration Minister acting like the Syrian refugee immmigration is rolling along smoothly.

Only ******* Sheeple take any of these acts/tv sound bytes at face value.

I mean, does anyone actually believe that Mrs. Gregoire-Trudeau's "spontaneous" burst into song on MLK day was "not planned"?  Garbage.  Someone somewhere was concerned about potential negative blow back, which would have emberassed her husband.  Someone somewhere would have at least asked "can you actually sing, in key, somewhat?...Ok, cool.  Thumbs up!" before letting that little gem happen.  Not saying there was a full blown War Cabinet to weigh in on it, but for sure she didn't just do that on her own. 
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Good2Golf on January 19, 2016, 20:55:08
O'Leary the man is notably different (and rather astute, dare I say prescient) than O'Leary the actor.  Then again, that was based on a single meeting, so I remain to be corrected.  YMMV.

G2G   
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Remius on January 19, 2016, 21:15:40
The problem, I think, is that Mr. O'Leary is being defined by the media and the avergae joe by what's happening south of the border.  While he is outspoken and bombastic, any comparison to Trump is juvenile and frankly assanine.  Their politics are nowhere near the same and to be honest  Kevin O'Leary actually sounds smarter because although he can be a straight shooter, he does make a lot of sense. 

Now, I suppose his tv persona is partly to blame for the labelling, but it will be up to him to manage that.  Some [people can't always differentiate between public and private personas but unfortunately, he will be judged by how he is in public. 
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Brad Sallows on January 19, 2016, 22:26:56
At least one candidate should be capable of getting well up the noses of the left and extreme left while retaining an apparent base of support.  It would work best if the anti-conservative media think he is an irremediable buffoon; they would find ways to support his candidacy in order to sabotage the CPC.  If he then turned out to actually be an irremediable buffoon it would be a setback for the CPC, but if not...thanks for the lift.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on January 20, 2016, 08:22:38
At least one candidate should be capable of getting well up the noses of the left and extreme left while retaining an apparent base of support.  It would work best if the anti-conservative media think he is an irremediable buffoon; they would find ways to support his candidacy in order to sabotage the CPC.  If he then turned out to actually be an irremediable buffoon it would be a setback for the CPC, but if not...thanks for the lift.

 :nod:   :goodpost:   :salute:

Exactly ... and MARS is spot on, too. I'm appalled that anyone takes the words seriously ... but tone, on the other hand, can matter ~ for good or ill.

In the case of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau I would say that, generally, he has the tone just about right ... except for the Da'esh/ISIL/Muslim thingy where, I think, he is singing off (the majority's) key, but, perhaps, I hope, because he is trying to change us ... to make us see our "better angels" and so on. I also think Ms Ambrose is "on key" as opposition leader ~ she has the right tone, even if some of the words are wrong ... or silly, which is worse. Kevin O'Leary may be a big surprise ... even a shock. He is, in person, a reasonable, intelligent, liberal sort of fellow, he really does have a social conscience, maybe bigger than Justin Trudeau's because he has actually seen the faces of hardship, but he does not have any patience for waste or inefficiency ... which makes him a poor choice for political leader because retail politics is all about wasting money on the undeserving poor (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aAQb_iGQmFo), at home and abroad.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Technoviking on January 20, 2016, 08:41:25
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=AuqemytQ5QA
This is an act to you?
He was not interviewed; he was interrogated.  And what did he say was wrong?  "If you work hard, you may be rich one day."

And the interrogator?  "I'm going to tell you later what you should say to this..."   

There was nothing wrong with what he said.

Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Altair on January 20, 2016, 10:33:51
He was not interviewed; he was interrogated.  And what did he say was wrong?  "If you work hard, you may be rich one day."

And the interrogator?  "I'm going to tell you later what you should say to this..."   

There was nothing wrong with what he said.
I have a long winded response to this but recceguy wouldn't appreciate it if I wrote it.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: ModlrMike on January 20, 2016, 11:55:47
Of course they were both right for different reasons, but that doesn't matter in politics. We're in an era where someone has to be wrong and the other right regardless of the truth of the middle ground.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: jollyjacktar on January 20, 2016, 13:08:38
I would love to see Mr. O'Leary have a debate with the PM.  That would be a sit back and enjoy the popcorn kind of entertainment.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Fishbone Jones on January 20, 2016, 14:27:26
I have a long winded response to this but recceguy wouldn't appreciate it if I wrote it.

Fill yer boots. I have little appreciation for what you say anyway. Besides, you're on Ignore and I only see your tripe if I want to. So don't let me stop you. Everyone is entitled to their opinion, whether anyone else agrees or not.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Kilo_302 on January 20, 2016, 16:25:23
The entire show was a poorly contrived act - you must have realized that, no? A very pale attempt to replicate CNN's original Crossfire format, pitting extreme left and right views against each other - part of CBC's content shakeup in 2009 in an attempt to reach a broader, and generally less intelligent audience.  Case in point, Don Newman retired that same year and his highly respected - but not very entertaining - Politics program was replaced with....wait for it....Evan Soloman and P&P.  Both shows - the Lang and O'Leary Exchange and P and P rely on bombastic, on air "gotcha"-type exchanges designed to replicate what was happening on the US networks at the time, as a ratings grab.  To me, that marked a signifcant step away from news and towards infotainment.  I've followed Ms. Lang's reporting for years and I KNOW she isn't as dense, obstuse or extreme in her personal and professional views as her producers evidently insisted she (and Mr. O'Leary) act on the Exchange. 

So yeah dude, totally an act.

The show doesn't actually reflect "the far left" and the "far right." Amanda Lang is NOT far left by any reasonable standard, I would suggest she's centrist. She believes in markets (with some regulation) and she aligns mainly with the Liberal Party, which is a centrist party. She reflects what most Canadians believe I think, which is that markets CAN work, but they require regulation to maintain equilibrium.

O'Leary however, IS far right. He's a hyper capitalist who at least says he wants to do away with all regulation. The counterpoint to this would be a socialist point of view, the view that capitalism is inherently part of the problem. We aren't going to get that any time soon on mainstream television.

So in the end, the show serves the purpose of reinforcing a very narrow spectrum of debate. Capitalism with a small amount of regulation, or capitalism without regulation.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Good2Golf on January 20, 2016, 22:11:08
Quote
From: Kilo_302
So in the end, the show serves the purpose of reinforcing a very narrow spectrum of debate.

Yup.  Having the National Socialists involved would vastly open up meaningful discourse to the existing "very narrow" debate.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Kilo_302 on January 22, 2016, 10:15:31
Yup.  Having the National Socialists involved would vastly open up meaningful discourse to the existing "very narrow" debate.

What "National Socialists" are you referring to?
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Good2Golf on January 22, 2016, 12:02:46
O'Leary however, IS far right. He's a hyper capitalist who at least says he wants to do away with all regulation. The counterpoint to this would be a socialist point of view, the view that capitalism is inherently part of the problem.

Yours.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Kilo_302 on January 22, 2016, 12:10:04
Yours.

Oh so you're suggesting that socialists in Canada are "National Socialists" ie Nazis?
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Good2Golf on January 22, 2016, 12:20:06
Oh so you're suggesting that socialists in Canada are "National Socialists" ie Nazis?

Perhaps "Federal Socialists" works for you?
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Kilo_302 on January 22, 2016, 12:36:33
Perhaps "Federal Socialists" works for you?

Not sure what you mean by "Federal Socialists" either. A socialist perspective would be the natural counter-balance to Kevin O'Leary, as he represents a fairly extreme point of view, and a departure from how we currently organize things. If we assume that a somewhat regulated free-market system (what we currently have, although it is moving to the Right all the time) is the political center, and Mr. O'Leary's vision of a flat tax, massively de-regulated political economy represents the right, how does Amanda Lang actually represent the real Left on the show? She represents the status quo.

You also stated (sarcastically) that adding a "National Socialist" point of view would "really open up the debate." Beyond this being an obvious reference to the Nazis (and you're clearly backing down because you know that's utter nonsense), it's simply inaccurate. Including a socialist perspective would by definition open up the debate, and we would have a voice to counter O'Leary's point of view.



Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Good2Golf on January 22, 2016, 13:57:07
Not sure what you mean by "Federal Socialists" either. A socialist perspective would be the natural counter-balance to Kevin O'Leary, as he represents a fairly extreme point of view, and a departure from how we currently organize things. If we assume that a somewhat regulated free-market system (what we currently have, although it is moving to the Right all the time) is the political center, and Mr. O'Leary's vision of a flat tax, massively de-regulated political economy represents the right, how does Amanda Lang actually represent the real Left on the show? She represents the status quo.

You also stated (sarcastically) that adding a "National Socialist" point of view would "really open up the debate." Beyond this being an obvious reference to the Nazis (and you're clearly backing down because you know that's utter nonsense), it's simply inaccurate. Including a socialist perspective would by definition open up the debate, and we would have a voice to counter O'Leary's point of view.

Canada has, for many decades now, had a socialist overtone, particularly when compared with other Western nations.  We and the Scandinavian countries are far more socialistic than mainstream Europe and especially our neighbour to the South.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Oldgateboatdriver on January 22, 2016, 14:08:35
Without getting into the debate with K_302 over a counterpoint to Mr. Wonderful, I am not sure I get what you mean about "mainstream" Europe, G2G.

The overtone of the political discourse in England is pretty comparable to the one in Canada, and that would be the most centrist/right discourse out there. In France, Germany, the Netherlands, Italy, Greece, and in part Spain recently, the political discourse is much more socialist in tone than in Canada. There is Switzerland, I grant you, but they are almost fascist in outlook  ;D.

What I say must be so because the SuperPAC campaigning against Senator Ted Cruz in the US calls them socialists - like Canada (because we all have a Value Added Tax system) :nod: 
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: jollyjacktar on January 22, 2016, 15:03:59
I discovered this morning that I've been banned from the CBC comments section.  I guess the looney left, latte sipping, Shiny Pony hugging mods can't handle the truth anymore...  :bowing:
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: George Wallace on January 22, 2016, 15:13:12
I discovered this morning that I've been banned from the CBC comments section.  I guess the looney left, latte sipping, Shiny Pony hugging mods can't handle the truth anymore...  :bowing:

Congratulations!   [lol:
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Kilo_302 on January 22, 2016, 15:16:10
I discovered this morning that I've been banned from the CBC comments section.  I guess the looney left, latte sipping, Shiny Pony hugging mods can't handle the truth anymore...  :bowing:

I rip the CBC apart in the comments section all the time. They're not adverse to criticism, you just can't come off as a looney right, Bud swilling, Shiny Gun hugging troll.  ;)

Obviously our issues with the CBC will be different, but I will positively savage articles they post, the organization at large, and the fact that they resemble an even more vapid version of CNN at times. Never had any problems.

Curious though, what's your handle on CBC? I wouldn't mind seeing what posts got you banned.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: jollyjacktar on January 22, 2016, 15:18:45
Congratulations!   [lol:

My boss said I should wear it as a badge of honour.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: milnews.ca on January 22, 2016, 15:44:37
I discovered this morning that I've been banned from the CBC comments section.  I guess the looney left, latte sipping, Shiny Pony hugging mods can't handle the truth anymore...  :bowing:
Nobody can say you're one of "them" :salute:
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: George Wallace on January 22, 2016, 16:54:08
I rip the CBC apart in the comments section all the time. They're not adverse to criticism, you just can't come off as a looney right, Bud swilling, Shiny Gun hugging troll.  ;)


Yet, over the years I have noticed that they definitely are not adverse to criticism if one is from the Looney LEFT, dope smoking, tree hugging trolls.  Many of them I would have thought ought to have been banned, perhaps even jailed, but seem to be sitting at the "CBC STAMMTISCH".
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Kilo_302 on January 22, 2016, 17:20:38
Yet, over the years I have noticed that they definitely are not adverse to criticism if one is from the Looney LEFT, dope smoking, tree hugging trolls.  Many of them I would have thought ought to have been banned, perhaps even jailed, but seem to be sitting at the "CBC STAMMTISCH".

haha "perhaps even jailed." Oh George, you kill me. cheers.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Brad Sallows on January 22, 2016, 23:51:52
AB has a flat tax, and isn't extreme - it's just AB.

Extreme is much further right than you think it is, K.  You suffer from a relativity problem - the apparent distance between you and O'Leary is large.  That alone doesn't make him the extreme one.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Thucydides on January 23, 2016, 01:10:52
Perhaps "Federal Socialists" works for you?

Actually Canada does have a real National Socialist movement, represented by the PQ/BQ. The others are (or claim to be) International Socialists, although I suppose very few of them would say no to a Fascist Corporate State if they thought they could be in charge...
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: milnews.ca on January 26, 2016, 07:57:33
From "MacKay joins Toronto law firm but won't rule out future political bid" (http://www.metronews.ca/news/canada/2016/01/25/mackay-joins-toronto-law-firm-but-won-t-rule-out-future-political-bid.html):
Quote
... "I've tried throughout my life and professional career to not rule things out — or close doors," MacKay said in an interview with The Canadian Press on Monday.

"So, it's not where I've been focused of late. My focus has been to return to the private sector and the practice of law, to make that career transition and all of that has been predicated on putting my family first."

But MacKay also noted that he has dedicated a good portion of his life to public service and he doesn't want to be "unnecessarily limiting myself to say, 'No, I'll never go back to public life'."

But he said politics is not his intent now ...
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: George Wallace on January 28, 2016, 12:31:50
Although he hasn't thrown his hat into the ring officially, Kevin O’Leary has made more publicity by stating what he sees as the direction of the country taking.  Some do not accept his views.  Sorry, but sometimes the truth hurts.

Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act.

Quote
Sinking economy may lead to Trudeau ouster: O'Leary (http://www.torontosun.com/2016/01/27/sinking-economy-may-lead-to-trudeau-ouster-oleary?token=99c3aa5d45927df416247b97ce6ef23e&utm_source=addThis&utm_medium=addthis_button_facebook&utm_campaign=Sinking+economy+may+lead+to+Trudeau+ouster%3A+O%27Leary+%7C+Warmington+%7C+Canada+%7C+News#.Vqlx1WTWwbE.facebook)
BY JOE WARMINGTON, TORONTO SUN
FIRST POSTED: WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 27, 2016 08:02 PM EST | UPDATED: WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 27, 2016 08:51 PM EST


TORONTO - Our economy is now measured in “dollerettes” and “massive debt” and Canadian businessman Kevin O’Leary predicts if it keeps up, the Liberals may start thinking about replacing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

“I think there could be a competition for leadership in the Liberal party because tax and spend is a really dumb idea in a country of no growth,” the Shark Tank star told my Newstalk 1010 show, the Late Shift. “I don’t think Justin Trudeau will have a long tenure.”

Canada’s economy is bleeding to death, he said, and the government is sticking in more knives.

“I can’t believe what is happening to my country,” the investor and entrepreneur said from an investment conference in Florida. “It’s going to zero fast. This is malfeasance.”

Just a couple of weeks removed from trial-ballooning the idea of running for the Conservative leadership, he warns Canada is becoming the laughingstock of the business world. Nobody will invest here while governments talk of multibillion-dollar deficit budgets and continue to slap business-killing regulations on growth potential, O’Leary said.

“The world has figured out in the past nine months that (Alberta NDP Premier) Rachel Notley has no idea what she is doing,” he said. “Her government is killing that province. She is totally clueless and she is killing this country. I think Canadians should get on their knees and beg her to take a holiday.”

Ontario’s pension plan “is a bad idea,” he said, as are the cap-and-trade discussions.

“It’s scary,” O’Leary said of all the job losses and business closures. “It is becoming a Third World banana republic.”

And there’s no voice of reason in Ottawa to counter the provincial trends.

“We now have a new a federal problem,” he said. “Finance Minister (Bill) Morneau is a good guy by most metrics, but a $30-billion deficit budget is a big problem. Everybody down here is freaked out.”

As are Canadian investors, who CIBC reported this week have placed $75 billion in cash on the sidelines instead of investing in Canadian business.

The reason?

“The deficit was supposed to be $10 billion but now they are talking $30 billion. As a Canadian taxpayer, I don’t want my government to spend $30 billion by themselves. They don’t have the talent to do that. They need to draw in the private sector.”

With that kind of debt on the books, O’Leary warns, outsiders will look to other countries to risk their money.

“You want to know why the Canadian dollar is collapsing? It’s because nobody will invest,” he said.

And young people he teaches are telling him they have little confidence about the future.

“They want to leave Canada, don’t want to be paid in dollerettes and pay 58.5% tax,” he said. “They don’t think they have a future here.”

He says foreign investors feel the same way.

“I am pitching Canada and they are not buying,” he said. “I can’t get a foreign investor to invest in Canada and I am the best salesman you’ve got.”

O’Leary said talk of him running for office with a slate of people who could help fix the country is still a long way off.

“I am just glad we are having this conversation now before it’s lost,” he said. “As a Canadian citizen, I am depressed. We need some leadership right away.”

If we don’t get some, he asks: “When do they bring the torches up to the castle and set it on fire?”

joe.warmington@sunmedia.ca


More on LINK (http://www.torontosun.com/2016/01/27/sinking-economy-may-lead-to-trudeau-ouster-oleary?token=99c3aa5d45927df416247b97ce6ef23e&utm_source=addThis&utm_medium=addthis_button_facebook&utm_campaign=Sinking+economy+may+lead+to+Trudeau+ouster%3A+O%27Leary+%7C+Warmington+%7C+Canada+%7C+News#.Vqlx1WTWwbE.facebook).
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Kilo_302 on January 28, 2016, 15:32:34
Although he hasn't thrown his hat into the ring officially, Kevin O’Leary has made more publicity by stating what he sees as the direction of the country taking.  Some do not accept his views.  Sorry, but sometimes the truth hurts.

The truth is subjective in this case. First, the current economic woes are definitely of the macro variety. The Liberals can't control oil prices any more than they can control the weather. What we CAN control is our economy being reliant on the energy sector and spin off industries. And guess who doubled down on oil in the last decade?

Second, O'Leary is an an entertainer, not an economist. In fact he's barely even a successful businessman. If he's suggesting his business acumen is what qualifies his ridiculous ideas, I think Canada can safely pass on them. I'll take Keynes over "O'Leary" any day.

http://www.nationalobserver.com/2016/01/26/news/real-and-shocking-story-kevin-olearys-business-career (http://www.nationalobserver.com/2016/01/26/news/real-and-shocking-story-kevin-olearys-business-career)

Quote
s Kevin O’Leary a good or bad businessman?


Buried in the back pages of the financial press last October was a story about the sale of his mutual fund company, O’Leary Funds, to Canoe Financial, an investment firm run by former Dragons’ Den cast member and entrepreneur Brett Wilson.

O’Leary had launched his funds with great fanfare back in 2008, introducing them to viewers on his Business News Network (BNN) show, SqueezePlay. Before the cameras, wearing a natty navy-blue suit and matching azure tie, O’Leary resembled a proud father with a new infant as he explained to co-host Amanda Lang how his fund was designed to produce yield on a monthly basis.

“You got to pay Daddy,” he declared, “because my wife costs a fortune, my kids cost a fortune. I need dough and I need dough every month. You got to pay Daddy number one.”

In those days, O’Leary’s star was ascending. He was one of the so-called “Dragons” on Dragons’ Den, which was becoming a bonafide Canadian hit. The following year he and Lang moved their daily business show over to the CBC, renamed The Lang & O’Leary Exchange.


O’Leary’s popularity and persona as a business guru soon drove investors to his mutual funds, with O’Leary Funds roaring to as much as $1.5-billion in assets (and probably more). O’Leary boasted of being an investing whiz, with access to the movers and shakers in the business and political worlds — those ties giving him unique insider knowledge.

The reality was quite different. O’Leary was not even licensed to manage or invest other people’s money. Instead, he hired Connor O’Brien, a former Wall Street investment banker, to run O’Leary Funds. Moreover, by 2012, the funds were in trouble, falling to $1-billion in assets by the end of that year.

This past fall, when he finally sold his company to Canoe, the funds were down to $800-million in assets. This was due to redemptions — investors pulling their money out because of the funds’ performance. “The majority of the funds performed poorly for an extended period of time and the majority of (Bay Street) brokers refused to sell any new funds,” says Mark McQueen, CEO of Wellington Financial LP, a $900-million Bay Street finance firm and one of O'Leary's long-time critics. “It’s not personal. The industry lives and dies on performance.”

Yet the demise of the O’Leary Funds is, in fact, just the latest in a series of failures in Kevin O’Leary’s business career.

While O’Leary recently grabbed headlines with his promise to invest $1-million in Alberta if premier Rachel Notley stepped down, and is toying with running for leadership of the federal Tory party, these stunts overshadow a history of ineptness as a businessman.

Disaster at Mattel

O’Leary is unquestionably a media star: He has written best-selling books, been a fixture on at least four televisions shows, including the current ABC hit program Shark Tank, revels in making outrageous statements, and crafted an image as the “mean” Dragon, able to reduce inventors to tears with putdowns like “this is the worst idea I have ever heard in my life it’s so bad!”

But what exactly is O’Leary’s business experience? Born in Montreal in 1954, O’Leary had ambitions of being a photographer. Instead, he did an MBA at the University of Western Ontario. After business school, he set up a television production company that produced shows for people like Don Cherry. From watching Cherry, O’Leary learned that it was important never to be boring or small on TV.

By 1983, O’Leary saw the potential in the emerging software and personal computer industries. He formed SoftKey Software Products Inc. in the basement of his Toronto home, convincing computer companies to bundle his software into their products.

SoftKey moved to Boston and focused on the booming field of educational software. By 1993, it was trading on Nasdaq and had revenues of $110-million—and a loss of $57-million. The company grew by making a string of acquisitions.

SoftKey’s most prominent takeover was of San Francisco-based The Learning Company (TLC). Prior to the sale, TLC hired the Center for Financial Research and Analysis (CFRA), a forensic accounting firm, to examine its suitor’s financials.

CFRA alleged that SoftKey may have overstated its earnings by bundling various general and administrative costs into write-offs. CFRA was also unhappy with SoftKey’s decision to fire its auditor, Arthur Andersen, after the accounting firm found deficiencies in the company’s internal controls. CFRA noted that SoftKey’s audit committee “holds several questionable members, including the CEO… as well as an outside member associated with two public companies charged with financial improprieties and another member who is a paid consultant to the company.”

Yet SoftKey’s acquisition of TLC went through, and SoftKey adopted the TLC name. By 1996, TLC had 3,000 employees and was the biggest educational software company in the world. It continued to grow via acquisitions, driving revenues up over $800-million.

But SEC filing shows that TLC suffered net losses of $376-million in 1996, $495-million in 1997 and $105-million in 1998. Moreover, TLC’s accumulated deficit topped $1.1-billion by the end of 1998.

That same year, toy giant Mattel Inc. made a takeover bid for TLC, without doing proper due diligence. Desperate to reverse a steep slide in the company’s stock price, Mattel CEO Jill Barad seized on educational software as a driver of future growth. The takeover shocked many, largely because TLC was seen, according to software-industry analyst Sean McGowan, as a well-known “house of cards” that was burdened with tired brands—not helped by the fact that O’Leary had slashed R&D from 24 down to 11 percent of expenditures. “There was a lot of [TLC] inventory out there that was not moving very well,” McGowan says. “They pumped up the sales by repackaging and distributing to convenience stores and drugstores.”

Indeed, TLC was later accused in a shareholders’ lawsuit and by a Mattel executive of “stuffing the channels”—shipping product at the end of a quarter and recording it as revenue, even though much of the merchandise would be returned. “Stuffing the channels was part of the business back then,” says a former TLC sales rep based in California.

In the end, Mattel purchased TLC for about $4-billion in the spring of 1999. O’Leary took over as president of Mattel’s new TLC digital division. Weeks after the sale, CFRA produced a critical report on Mattel, claiming TLC was already experiencing collapsing revenue, a surge in receivables and a deterioration of operating cash flow.

In the third quarter of 1999, Mattel expected profits of $50-million from the TLC division. Instead, it was a loss of $105-million (the next quarter losses rose to $206 -million), which wiped out more than $2-billion in shareholder value in one day, as the company’s share price slid from nearly $17 to $11.69.

In short, O’Leary had sold Mattel a turkey.

One investor’s lawsuit says O’Leary cashed in his Mattel shares just before the losses were announced when the stock was at its peak, pocketing almost $6-million.

In November of 1999, O’Leary was fired, six months into a three-year contract. Four months later, Mattel’s CEO, Jill Barad, was forced out too. “There is nothing I can say to gloss over how devastating The Learning Company’s results have been to Mattel’s overall performance,” Barad said as she went out the door.

Mattel hired Bernard Stolar, a video-game executive, to see if he could salvage TLC. “It was an absolute disaster,” he says. In 2000, Mattel handed over its multi-billion-dollar acquisition to another firm for a mere $27-million and a share of its future profits.

Mattel’s purchase of TLC was later labeled by Businessweek magazine as one of “the Worst Deals of All Time.” Shareholders launched a class-action lawsuit, naming O’Leary as a defendant, accusing him of insider trading and of being part of a scheme to obscure TLC’s financial state. While O’Leary denied the allegations, in 2003, Mattel settled the lawsuit for $122-million—considered a “mega-settlement” at the time. O'Leary has blamed Mattel's management for the problems with the TLC division, not his own involvement.

While O’Leary’s actions cost Mattel’s investors hundreds of millions, he netted $11.2-million between his severance package and sale of his Mattel stock.

Sued for wrongful dismissal

After getting canned by Mattel, O’Leary’s business career sputtered and meandered.

In 2003, O’Leary invested in a self-storage company called StorageNow Holdings Inc., which he learned about from Reza Satchu, a Toronto entrepreneur. Satchu’s high-school acquaintance, Jonathan Wheler, had a background in real estate and saw that a lot of money could be made by building self-storage warehouses in accessible locales. Wheler had even found a perfect piece of land in Toronto to erect such a facility. According to court documents, O’Leary put in about $500,000 and ended up with almost 13 percent of the company.


In the summer of 2003, the Toronto land was purchased and, for a cost of $5.2-million, StorageNow’s first self-storage facility was built and opened in the spring of 2004.

But the relationship among the three men deteriorated. Wheler oversaw building the Toronto facility and finding other plots of land to construct similar warehouses. Eventually, he negotiated a deal with the Satchus and O’Leary to divide up the company’s eventual profits. In a $10-million wrongful dismissal lawsuit, Wheler contends that Satchu and O’Leary arbitrarily altered the agreed-upon compensation deal, reducing his cut of the profits substantially.

A further deal related to profits derived from the Toronto facility was finalized in 2004. But in April of 2005, Wheler claims he met with O’Leary who told him that this agreement was “too rich” to Wheler and what had been agreed upon was “simply no longer available”, according to Wheler’s lawsuit. O’Leary told Wheler his pay and compensation arrangements would be cut back. The following month, Wheler was terminated. Wheler believes that once O’Leary and Satchu realized how profitable StorageNow was going to be, they pushed him out of the business.

In a defense statement, Satchu and O’Leary claim Wheler was let go because he was inexperienced and lacked business acumen and fell behind schedule. Despite such characterizations, Wheler went on to develop a series of other self-storage units across Canada with another company using his original concept and became a millionaire on paper.

O’Leary and his partners soon were out-maneuvered by their competitors. A competing company, InStorage Self Storage Inc., blew by them, growing so rapidly they gobbled up StorageNow in 2007.

There were other miscues for O’Leary, too. In 2004, he was appointed to the board of Environmental Management Solutions Inc. (later called EnGlobe Inc.), an Ontario waste management firm. Soon afterwards, the board fired the company’s CEO. But the company’s leadership was unable to arrest a decline in its fortunes brought on by an overambitious acquisition program; the stock price slid from close to $4 to 3.5 cents during O’Leary’s term of almost five years as a director.

“I have had some great successes and great failures,” O’Leary said in a 2012 interview. “I think every entrepreneur has. I try to learn from all of them.”

O'Leary becomes a TV stereotype

In 2003, O’Leary talked his way into a job onto TV at BNN, partnering up with Amanda Lang on SqueezePlay, a daily business show.

O’Leary was made for television, having soaked up the lessons learned from Don Cherry years earlier. He was the sort of person who would bring a box of dog biscuits to the set and howl if he thought a certain stock was a “dog”.

But O’Leary also revealed his ignorance of the markets too. In the early aughts, Bay Street began peddling income trusts to investors. But Al Rosen, Mark Rosen and Diane Urquhart, experts on investment products, concluded income trusts shared characteristics of Ponzi schemes, with many destined to fail. In 2005, they produced a report saying 50 of the top income trusts were overvalued by almost 30 per cent.

Yet Al Rosen recalls O’Leary championing income trusts on his TV show. Rosen says he went on BNN and argued with O’Leary about the subject. “He’s an ignorant man,” says Rosen, one of Canada’s leading forensic accountants. “He was trying to kill us every time. We would see each other and almost spit on each other.”

In 2006, O’Leary was cast on Dragons’ Den for its first season, taking on the role as the resident *******. He was the sort of person when an inventor burst into tears after being criticized by the Dragons, would say, “Money doesn’t care. Your tears don’t add any value.”

Henry Mintzberg, the Cleghorn professor of management studies at McGill University, believes O’Leary’s depiction of a business leader is pejorative. “Pitbull (executives) don’t add anything at all,” he said in an interview with this reporter back in 2012. Mintzberg said in the US there’s been the emergence of the “cult of heroic leadership” within corporations. “The tendency there… is to attribute any success of the company to one person,” he remarked. But Mintzberg said companies function best when CEO’s recognize that companies are collaborative efforts and they show flexibility and emotional health. O’Leary, on the other hand, “is obviously an arch narcissist,” noted Mintzberg. “I don’t know how he manages his companies, but his stereotype is dysfunctional.”

Dragons’ Den became a huge hit. Yet one of the myths of the show is that the deals struck by the Dragons on TV turn into real investment. In reality, only a minority of deals actually materialize. Moreover, Tracie Tighe, the show’s executive producer, once said O’Leary is “tight with his wallet” and closed only one or two deals a year.

Indeed, O’Leary had a history of rarely investing with entrepreneurs and of denigrating sound projects. When Rachel Mielke, a jewelry-maker based in Regina, appeared on the show in 2008 seeking $200,000 for a 20 percent stake in her jewelry company, Hillberg & Berk, she told the Dragons that her company was valued at $1-million, a sum O’Leary openly derided. “Kevin, right from the get-go, said ‘This is a bad idea',” Mielke recalled in an interview in 2012. “He didn’t really understand the industry.”


Rachel Mielke photo from Hillberg and Berk website
In the end, Dragon Brett Wilson agreed to back her company, which shot to sales of $5-million by 2014. “Within a couple of years it was quite clear that we had surpassed the valuation that I went to Dragons’ Den with,” said Mielke.

Even one of O’Leary’s success stories is not all what it cracks up to be. Wendy Johannson and Claudia Harvey invented a utility glove for women and needed $50,000 when they went on the show in 2009 for their company, DigIt Apparel Inc. On-air O’Leary agreed to give them the money in return for three percent of royalties. After the show, they eventually gave him 10 percent of the company.

But the $50,000 never materialized. “When he said he’d like to have ten percent for $50,000 I thought that would be a cash injection, I thought that was money in the bank for us,” said Harvey in an interview in 2012, “When it came down to it… that wasn’t the case.”

Instead, O’Leary offered them a line of credit at an interest rate higher than what the banks offer, which DigIt didn’t touch. “He’s never actually given us any money,” said Harvey at that time, although the two women were happy with his contribution to the company by opening doors to retailers.

O’Leary told the Globe and Mail in 2012 that Johannson and Harvey wanted to use the money for inventory, which he didn't think was a good use of his money. He said he was proud of what the pair had achieved.

The rise and fall of O'Leary Funds

By 2008, having painted himself as a business guru, O’Leary felt it was time to cash in on his new-found fame and start another business.

That summer, he announced the creation of his own mutual fund company, O’Leary Funds, despite not having a background in investing other people’s money or a broker’s license, and having denigrated mutual funds on TV.

In the end, O’Leary would be the hood ornament to woo investors; he hired former Wall Street investment banker Connor O’Brien to be the portfolio manager. One of the first things O’Leary said was he wouldn't “grind the capital” of investors, meaning he would not pay back to investors their very own principal to meet dividend demands (as opposed to generating dividends as a result of astute investing).

The funds took off. By 2010, O’Leary was hoping his funds would hit $5-billion in assets within three years.

Yet it was not long afterwards that some sharp-eyed experts on Bay Street found evidence that, in fact, O’Leary Funds was paying out dividends to investors with their very own cash – in other words, grinding their capital. “The issue is not do other people grind their own capital, it’s that he said he doesn’t do it,” says Mark McQueen, CEO of Wellington Financial. “And I found half a dozen of his funds where he had.”

By 2012, investment advisers were pulling their money out of the O’Leary Funds simply because they were not performing as well as O’Leary had touted. And the funds continued to leak over the next three years before O’Leary finally folded his tent last fall, selling the entire business to Brett Wilson's Canoe Financial.

Meanwhile, O’Leary’s television career also began to flag. In 2014, he left CBC and Dragons’ Den and The Lang & O’Leary Exchange to become a gadfly at CTV. His profile in Canada has dimmed considerably since.

In the end, O’Leary succeeded in becoming a millionaire. But more so because he learned how to turn himself into a celebrity and not because of his business acumen.

Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Colin P on January 28, 2016, 17:42:46
I won’t actually blame either party for the economy as you rightly mentioned it’s out of their hands. As far as the manufacturing sector, anything that the CPC could have done there would have been opposed, I not really sure what if anything they could do from a Federal side to push manufactured goods. For resources, you need to make hay when the sun shines and it was shining, now it is not. However the sun is coming up for the Tourist and Movie industry. Weakness in the US economy and other countries is preventing the forest industry from taking full advantage of the low dollar. Canada’s defense industry might do well out of the low dollar.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on January 28, 2016, 18:18:49
It is hard, very hard, to "support" (subsidize) manufacturing under existing trade law ... unless there is a national defence security aspect to it (like the LAV).

The kind of high volume, relatively "easy" manufacturing that many people would like to do is also low skill/low wage and, therefore, well suited to Indonesia or the Philippines, not to high cost Canada.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Lumber on January 28, 2016, 20:18:17
It is hard, very hard, to "support" (subsidize) manufacturing under existing trade law ... unless there is a national defence security aspect to it (like the LAV).

The kind of high volume, relatively "easy" manufacturing that many people would like to do is also low skill/low wage and, therefore, well suited to Indonesia or the Philippines, not to high cost Canada.

Do tax and regulatory incentives count as "subsidizing"? If we offered tax incentives to foreign investores to establish manufacturing/harvesting operations in Canada, would that be considered subsidizing?
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: PuckChaser on January 28, 2016, 20:20:34
Do tax and regulatory incentives count as "subsidizing"? If we offered tax incentives to foreign investores to establish manufacturing/harvesting operations in Canada, would that be considered subsidizing?

No, that's why the Tories pushed for lower corporate tax rates, to encourage companies to set their headquarters up here. Unfortunately, the hydro costs and provincial taxes in Ontario and Quebec stop manufacturing companies from wanting to set up here. Overhead is way too high.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: YZT580 on January 28, 2016, 20:25:24
No, that's why the Tories pushed for lower corporate tax rates, to encourage companies to set their headquarters up here. Unfortunately, the hydro costs and provincial taxes in Ontario and Quebec stop manufacturing companies from wanting to set up here. Overhead is way too high.
It also got them planning to move out.  I noticed that GM made no commitment re: Oshawa in Davos.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Lumber on January 28, 2016, 20:49:45
No, that's why the Tories pushed for lower corporate tax rates, to encourage companies to set their headquarters up here. Unfortunately, the hydro costs and provincial taxes in Ontario and Quebec stop manufacturing companies from wanting to set up here. Overhead is way too high.

Couldn't this be another form of incentive? "Set up your plant here and get a %50 rebate on your energy bill for the next 20 years".

"No property taxes for 20 years!"

"You don't pay the interest on loans until 2033!"

Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Fishbone Jones on January 28, 2016, 21:13:30
Couldn't this be another form of incentive? "Set up your plant here and get a %50 rebate on your energy bill for the next 20 years".

"No property taxes for 20 years!"

"You don't pay the interest on loans until 2033!"

That's done all the time. Problem is, other jurisdictions offer a better deal.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Chris Pook on January 28, 2016, 21:25:36
Also that takes manpower to negotiate each and every one of those deals - and time.

Versus an across the board low cost regime from low energy costs and low taxes.

The latter is more cost effective and lest wasteful of bureaucratic resources.

Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Brad Sallows on January 28, 2016, 22:01:50
>What we CAN control is our economy being reliant on the energy sector and spin off industries. And guess who doubled down on oil in the last decade?

Please sh!tcan that "all oil, all the time" nonsense.

Gross domestic product at basic prices, by industry (monthly) (http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/gdps04a-eng.htm) (a snapshot comparing 2014 and 2015 at statcan.gc.ca).

The collapse in oil and other commodity prices is a problem, but it isn't THE problem.  What it has done is reveal how weak everything else is and how little anyone else has managed to do.

I continue to believe we are not going to see higher levels of GDP (spending growth) because previous higher levels of growth were attained on the backs of consumer borrowing, and consumers have less room to borrow.  Federal governments may be able to indefinitely spend 110% of their annual incomes each year, but people can not.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Thucydides on January 29, 2016, 13:19:49
>What we CAN control is our economy being reliant on the energy sector and spin off industries. And guess who doubled down on oil in the last decade?

Please sh!tcan that "all oil, all the time" nonsense.

Gross domestic product at basic prices, by industry (monthly) (http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/gdps04a-eng.htm) (a snapshot comparing 2014 and 2015 at statcan.gc.ca).

The collapse in oil and other commodity prices is a problem, but it isn't THE problem.  What it has done is reveal how weak everything else is and how little anyone else has managed to do.

I continue to believe we are not going to see higher levels of GDP (spending growth) because previous higher levels of growth were attained on the backs of consumer borrowing, and consumers have less room to borrow.  Federal governments may be able to indefinitely spend 110% of their annual incomes each year, but people can not.

Indeed. While the Young Dauphin was spinning the "collapsing oil pillar" nonsense, the reality was that sector was only 8% of the economy at the time, while leasing and real estate was 13%, and more ominously, government expenditures were also aprox 13% of the economy. Using their own political logic, real estate developers are to blame for the state of the economy....
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Remius on January 29, 2016, 13:24:32
is not though, that oil is more heavily linked to our dollar and has a bigger effect on our dollar thus having a bigger effect on our economy even if it is only 8% of it?

Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Kilo_302 on January 29, 2016, 15:07:40
Indeed. While the Young Dauphin was spinning the "collapsing oil pillar" nonsense, the reality was that sector was only 8% of the economy at the time, while leasing and real estate was 13%, and more ominously, government expenditures were also aprox 13% of the economy. Using their own political logic, real estate developers are to blame for the state of the economy....

As someone working with clients out West, I can tell you that the oil sector affects other sectors. This is pretty straightforward. For example Saskatchewan's provincial budget was cut significantly in 2015 because of oil prices. This affected all government services, and as a consequence many industries that sell to government. We had several school divisions and government offices put off fleet refresh RFPs indefinitely. So while the "oil sector" might only be 8% of the Canadian economy (this link seems to suggest that oil gas and mining are actually 27% of our GDP, so not sure how you're defining "economy  http://www.cepa.com/about-pipelines/economic-benefits-of-pipelines/the-energy-sectors-contribution (http://www.cepa.com/about-pipelines/economic-benefits-of-pipelines/the-energy-sectors-contribution)), the affect is far greater.

The fact that Canadian economists are painting a dismal picture for our economy in 2016 and have specifically mentioned oil prices as the main factor says to me that oil is indeed the problem, and we're over-exposed.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Good2Golf on January 29, 2016, 18:25:20
The fact that Canadian economists are painting a dismal picture for our economy in 2016 and have specifically mentioned oil prices as the main factor says to me that oil is indeed the problem, and we're over-exposed.

So what is our "resourcefulness" going to replace the reduced oil production with, in order to keep GDP at nominal levels?
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Chris Pook on January 29, 2016, 20:26:01
Well, we used to generate more money from selling oil than selling cars.  Apparently the world is back in balance again because we are now making more money from cars than oil.  Unfortunately this is not because we are selling more cars.

(https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fempowernetwork-reviewed.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2013%2F06%2Fcrab-mentality.jpg&hash=857685eea2206bc8a1c3a8714a75284f)
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: jollyjacktar on January 29, 2016, 21:00:10
Well, we used to generate more money from selling oil than selling cars.  Apparently the world is back in balance again because we are now making more money from cars than oil.  Unfortunately this is not because we are selling more cars.

(https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fempowernetwork-reviewed.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2013%2F06%2Fcrab-mentality.jpg&hash=857685eea2206bc8a1c3a8714a75284f)

Chris..... those are not cars..... just say'n.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Chris Pook on January 29, 2016, 21:11:40
Quote
This concept references an interesting phenomenon that occurs in buckets of crabs. If one crab attempts to escape from a bucket of live crabs, the others will pull it back down rather than allowing it to get free. Sometimes, the crabs seem almost malicious, waiting until the crab has almost escaped before yanking it back into the pot. All of the crabs are undoubtedly aware of the fact that their fate is probably not going to be very pleasurable, so people are led to wonder why they pull each other back into the bucket instead of helping the clever escape artist.

Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: jollyjacktar on January 29, 2016, 21:52:43
I remember reading that somewhere before, now that you mention it.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Fishbone Jones on January 29, 2016, 22:31:25

This concept references an interesting phenomenon that occurs in buckets of crabs. If one crab attempts to escape from a bucket of live crabs, the others will pull it back down rather than allowing it to get free. Sometimes, the crabs seem almost malicious, waiting until the crab has almost escaped before yanking it back into the pot. All of the crabs are undoubtedly aware of the fact that their fate is probably not going to be very pleasurable, so people are led to wonder why they pull each other back into the bucket instead of helping the clever escape artist.


Sounds like a couple of Units I served with. ::)
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Good2Golf on January 30, 2016, 15:16:39
This concept references an interesting phenomenon that occurs in buckets of crabs. If one crab attempts to escape from a bucket of live crabs, the others will pull it back down rather than allowing it to get free. Sometimes, the crabs seem almost malicious, waiting until the crab has almost escaped before yanking it back into the pot. All of the crabs are undoubtedly aware of the fact that their fate is probably not going to be very pleasurable, so people are led to wonder why they pull each other back into the bucket instead of helping the clever escape artist.


Ah, the 'Blue Falcon' crab!
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: ballz on January 30, 2016, 15:56:39
So what is our "resourcefulness" going to replace the reduced oil production with, in order to keep GDP at nominal levels?

Oh that's an easy trick, just de-value the currency by going into debt via stimulus spending. Never fails to make the GDP grow. The Federal Reserve taught the world that trick and every government has been using it since.

But why does GDP growth really matter? If we doubled our money supply, our GDP would double as well. So would that mean our economy has strengthened?

Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: itsmylocker on January 30, 2016, 19:03:14
To be fair, that's why most measures of GDP are done in real dollars...
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: ballz on January 30, 2016, 19:39:33
To be fair, that's why most measures of GDP are done in real dollars...

That still doesn't solve the problem here of people thinking that the GDP is the ultimate measure of an economy.

In real dollars, if the Federal government spends 1% of the GDP, the *real* GDP will grow by at minimum 1% (this is just simple math since the equation for GDP sums the total of spending, including government spending). It will most likely grow by more since whoever receives it will also spend some of it, and so forth and so on.

However, how does that increase in the GDP, be it 1%, 1.5% or 2.0%, indicate that the economy has improved? It measures consumption by taking the sum of all spending. Just because we are consuming more does not mean our economy is a) producing more (gross production) or b) producing more efficiently (producing with less inputs such as capital or labour). The United States GDP increased for decades prior to the 2008 recession, without actually increasing production.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Thucydides on January 30, 2016, 20:03:09
The Economist used to have a marvellous method of making economic cross comparisons: How much of a person's time in country "x" would be spent earning enough to buy a Big Mac meal at McDonalds?

This actually covered a lot in a very simple to understand idea. The local franchise owners must be plugged into a wide range of markets to purchase the various ingredients of a Big Mac meal, and using the nation's median wage, you could see just what sort of purchasing power was available to the locals. Obviously, if the median income in Nation A allowed you to buy a Big Mac meal after an hour's work, while Nation B required 3 hours work to do the equivalent, you could peg "B" as being less productive per hour worked (hence the lower wages) or that "B" had an inefficient market system (hence the cost of ingredients to make a Big Mac meal was high) or both.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: ballz on January 30, 2016, 23:48:15
Very smart indeed, especially comparing it to an hour of one's time. Our time is a scarce resource that holds its value over time, and we all understand its value. Takes all that fiat currency stuff out of the picture that confuses people.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: dapaterson on January 31, 2016, 00:16:49
They're still tracking it:  http://www.economist.com/content/big-mac-index

Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: chanman on February 07, 2016, 18:29:10
If we doubled our money supply, our GDP would double as well. So would that mean our economy has strengthened?

When comparing GDP across time, the figures are adjusted for inflation to compare like to like. Check the fine print on graphs and you'll usually see something like *2013 CAD or *2012 USD

It'll almost always be using the currency value from a couple years ago after that year's tax numbers have been digested and distributed.


As for manufacturing - it's heavily correlated to resource demand. Falling prices (and oversupply) in structural steel and concrete are closely tied to slowdowns in construction (and construction worker/trades unemployment and wages) or energy to heavy manufacturing in general.

Simplifying greatly, there's an upper limit to how much of a particular good a market can absorb, especially if the goods are (or become more) durable. If modern cars last twice as long as those from 30 years ago, then they only need to be replaced half as often. Even if it takes the same number of man-hours to make car, if people aren't buying at least twice as many cars, there's going to be a permanent reduction in how many car factory workers are needed.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: dapaterson on February 08, 2016, 14:54:23
From the "Hey! Not my fault" department: Jenni Byrne on How the Conservative Party can avoid the political wilderness (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/how-the-conservative-party-can-avoid-the-political-wilderness/article28616994/)

Quote
Ten years ago, the Conservative Party formed government on a wave of change, aided by a weakened and disorganized Liberal Party. Today’s Conservative Party is nothing like the Liberal Party of 2006. If it remains united, keeps the organization strong, continues to train and motivate volunteers, raises money, and offers a sound alternative to this Liberal government, the fundamentals to a Conservative victory in the next election are there.

Of course, the alternative could also be true. If the Conservative Party doesn’t focus on the issues that matter and affect Canadians, maintain local organizations and build on strong campaign fundamentals, it could be years in the wilderness.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Loachman on February 08, 2016, 16:42:52
Mind-numbing garbage, so I only skimmed it earlier.

I did not see anything about such faults as not actually governing like a conservative party, not doing the right things, or pissing off one's traditional supporters.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Loachman on February 08, 2016, 17:09:22
Only the part regarding the Conservative Party's failures has been posted below. The rest can be read at the link.

http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2016/02/a_lesson_to_republicans_in_canadas_conservative_party_defeat.html

February 7, 2016

A Lesson to Republicans in Canada's Conservative Party Defeat

By David Solway and Janice Fiamengo

The failure of Canada's majority Conservative government to win re-election on October 17, 2015 should serve as an object lesson to the Republican establishment in the United States.  Among a number of reasons for the debacle, the abandonment or weakening of first principles in the name of pragmatic and ideological compromise was a major factor leading to the Conservative defeat.

The Tories attempted to cater to non-conservative voters, to appeal to a broad constituency, to be liked, to be moderate, by softening the party's message and gutting many of its programs.  Perhaps most obviously, they drew back from significantly defunding and at least partially privatizing our deep-left state-supported national broadcaster, the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation.  The CBC is a cultural Marxist production that never met a Conservative policy it liked.  It sees its mandate as constantly attacking every Conservative idea or piece of legislation while propagandizing on behalf of multiculturalism; Islam as a religion of peace; anti-Zionism; and radical movements such as Occupy Wall Street, Idle No More, and #BlackLivesMatter.  It sided with Canada's two socialist parties, the Liberals and the New Democratic Party (NDP).  But aside from legislating a small reduction in the CBC's operating budget, the Conservatives allowed the "MotherCorp" to continue shilling for the opposition.  Afraid of giving its foes something to be offended by, the Conservative government funded its own demise.

No less catastrophic, the Conservatives failed to pass legislation to radically protect free speech across the country – legislation that would outrank our provincial kangaroo courts, known as Human Rights Commissions, whose mandate has been to prosecute individual citizens and groups on the flimsy grounds of "hate speech."  Aside from the fact that leaving these provincial tribunals in place did not garner a single bit of support or sympathy from the social justice totalitarians, this signal failure guarantees that open discussions essential to Canada's future as a robust democracy – especially conversations about mass immigration, Islamic terrorism, and the relation between the two – will continue to be curtailed by the left-leaning proponents of censorship in the name of social "harmony."  Such conversations are also, not incidentally, essential to the survival of a genuine Conservative party.

The Conservatives also implemented half-measures on the subject of gun control, failing to fully disband the despised Gun Registry that makes it almost impossible for people to defend themselves against criminals.  Canadian gun control legislation prohibits individuals with gun permits from carrying guns on their persons except in narrowly defined circumstances, and elaborate storage protocols mean that a home-owner who experiences a home invasion by a burglar or worse would be unable to use his or her gun in self-defense.

Perhaps most damagingly, the Conservatives attempted to fight the election chiefly on the basis of fact and logical argument rather than engaging the passions and patriotic sentiments of the electorate.  They were unable to rebut progressivist attacks portraying them as hateful, bigoted, backward, divisive, and exclusionary.  They had no vision of Canada to offer that was not simply a less enthusiastic version of the feminist, multicultural, and "diverse" image championed by the other parties.  In trying to play it safe, the Conservatives not only failed to dislodge Liberal and NDP voters from their political homes, but also alienated their conservative supporters.

The Conservatives might have used their parliamentary majority to enact truly decisive, game-changing pieces of legislation that could have consolidated a center-right political orientation not easily undone – even in the case of electoral loss.  They didn't, and we are suffering for it now.

So much, then, for Canada's Conservatives.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Old Sweat on February 10, 2016, 12:22:53
This report of an interview of Kevin O'Leary by Evan Solomon on CFRA in Ottawa, the CPC leadership candidate is opposed to Canada taking part in any combat mission. The story is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provision of the Copyright Act.

O'Leary: No combat mission against ISIS; stick to Peacekeeping

Posted on 2/9/2016 10:39:00 PM by CFRA News Staff
 
Kevin O'Leary says Canada shouldn't be involved in any international military engagements other than peacekeeping - and that includes the allied mission against the Islamic State (ISIS).

The business TV star and possible Conservative Party leadership candidate made the comments on News Talk Radio 580 CFRA Tuesday.

"I don't want to bomb or get involved in any campaigns as a Canadian other than keeping the peace. We are the only country along with the Fins (Finland) that can do that, and we are wasting our equity," O'Leary told Ottawa Now host Evan Solomon. "I actually believe the last person or the last nationality ISIS wants to put a bullet through is a Canadian. I really believe that. The only country that has the moral authority in the history of the Middle East to actually act as a peacekeeper is a Canadian soldier."

O'Leary cited his early years spent in Cyprus in the 1960's as reason for his stance on peacekeeping for Canada.

"We have an opportunity, we shouldn't squander it, I think what Trudeau is doing is a huge mistake," O'Leary said, citing that Prime Minister Trudeau is increasing Canadian special forces in the region while withdrawing the RCAF. "We shouldn't be proud of killing people, we should be proud of keeping the peace between them."

O'Leary is scheduled to speak at the Manning Centre Conference in Ottawa later this month.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: jollyjacktar on February 10, 2016, 12:45:43
Well, that's lost any chance he might have down the road of my support.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Chris Pook on February 10, 2016, 12:55:16
Quote
"I actually believe the last person or the last nationality ISIS wants to put a bullet through is a Canadian. I really believe that.

Failure to understand the enemy and the nature of the conflict.

The more Canada touts itself as the rational, enlightened country - the avatar of western thought and moral authority - the more likely that ISIL will not like us.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Loachman on February 10, 2016, 13:11:39
Well, that's lost any chance he might have down the road of my support.

Pretty much...
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Oldgateboatdriver on February 10, 2016, 13:26:34
You guys just don't understand Mr. Wonderfull:

He is opposed to combat mission because nobody showed him "the money" in it: "How do I make mmmoooonnnneeeeyyy!!!

Show hime the money, He'll back the mission until the cows come home.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: George Wallace on February 10, 2016, 13:27:36
Those comments just left me with the impression that he has little or no knowledge of what the CAF is and does. 

Listening to the discussions on the radio, I am of mixed feelings on this topic.  The Problem in Iraq and Syria is so complex, I see it as a no win/no win situation all around.  His comments on Cyprus, although praising the Canadian soldiers, does not reflect on the fact that Cyprus is still a divided island and there is only the most rudimentary form of "Peace" to be found there.   In fact, the numbers of cases where we actually did bring "Peace" to a country/Region is very small.   

With more exposure to what DND and the CAF do, I am sure he will become more informed than he appears now.

Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: ballz on March 09, 2016, 17:33:48
When comparing GDP across time, the figures are adjusted for inflation to compare like to like. Check the fine print on graphs and you'll usually see something like *2013 CAD or *2012 USD

It'll almost always be using the currency value from a couple years ago after that year's tax numbers have been digested and distributed.

I guess you didn't read this, here it is again for you:

That still doesn't solve the problem here of people thinking that the GDP is the ultimate measure of an economy.

In real dollars, if the Federal government spends 1% of the GDP, the *real* GDP will grow by at minimum 1% (this is just simple math since the equation for GDP sums the total of spending, including government spending). It will most likely grow by more since whoever receives it will also spend some of it, and so forth and so on.

However, how does that increase in the GDP, be it 1%, 1.5% or 2.0%, indicate that the economy has improved? It measures consumption by taking the sum of all spending. Just because we are consuming more does not mean our economy is a) producing more (gross production) or b) producing more efficiently (producing with less inputs such as capital or labour). The United States GDP increased for decades prior to the 2008 recession, without actually increasing production.

As for this,

As for manufacturing - it's heavily correlated to resource demand. Falling prices (and oversupply) in structural steel and concrete are closely tied to slowdowns in construction (and construction worker/trades unemployment and wages) or energy to heavy manufacturing in general.

Simplifying greatly, there's an upper limit to how much of a particular good a market can absorb, especially if the goods are (or become more) durable. If modern cars last twice as long as those from 30 years ago, then they only need to be replaced half as often. Even if it takes the same number of man-hours to make car, if people aren't buying at least twice as many cars, there's going to be a permanent reduction in how many car factory workers are needed.

What is the point to this ramblings, that technological advancements are bad for the economy? Or are you aimlessly stating common sense that I don't think any one is disagreeing with, with no real point?

If cars become twice as durable for the same price, that is a technological advancement, and that means people and businesses now get to spend half as much money in cars and have more money for other things. A permanent reduction in car factory workers required does not mean the economy has weakened. In this case it would be the exact opposite as production has increased. What you would find is that all of those lost car factory jobs, and then some, appear in other industries which are now more affordable since business / consumers have more money to spend on other things / invest / etc.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: milnews.ca on April 05, 2016, 06:53:49
Whazzup with one of the (alleged?) contenders (http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/conservative-leadership-race-1.3519593) ...
Quote
A former Tory cabinet minister will be feted at a cocktail fundraiser today, informally kicking off what is expected to be a long and costly Conservative Party leadership race.

CBC News has obtained an email copy of an invitation to an event to drum up funds and support for Kellie Leitch, a pediatric surgeon and the former minister of labour and status of women who is expected to mount a leadership bid.

According to the email, the event at Edmonton's Royal Glenora Club offers a chance to hear from the Ontario MP about why "she is the best candidate to lead the Conservative Party of Canada into the next election." It also delivers a reminder that donors can give up to $1,525 each calendar year for the cause.

The organizer declined to comment on the "private" event, and a call to Leitch was not returned ...
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: dapaterson on April 05, 2016, 07:52:31
Hmm... is political leaders schmoozing for money a "barbaric cultural practice"?
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Chris Pook on April 05, 2016, 11:36:50
Hmm... is political leaders schmoozing for money a "barbaric cultural practice"?

No.  It's wynnesome.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Old Sweat on April 05, 2016, 11:57:20
No.  It's wynnesome.

Groan!!  :cheers:
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: ballz on April 10, 2016, 11:27:05
Well I'm a little bit saddened this hasn't already been posted so I will do so...

https://ipolitics.ca/2016/04/07/quebec-mp-maxime-bernier-makes-conservative-party-leadership-bid-official/

Quote
Quebec MP Maxime Bernier makes Conservative party leadership bid official

Why wait?

Quebec MP Maxime Bernier became the second official contender for the permanent leadership of the Conservative party Thursday, saying while there may be more than a year to go until the winner is chosen, he’s ready now.

“It’s time for our conservative movement to have a leader who speaks openly, with passion and conviction, what it is to be a conservative and that’s what I want to do,” Bernier said as he arrived at Conservative headquarters in Ottawa to file his nomination forms.

Bernier, 53, may end up with the distinction of being the lone contender from Quebec, the only province where the Tories actually increased their seat count in the last election.

He was drawn into federal politics in 2006 in an effort by the Tories to reverse their failure to win any seats at all Quebec in 2004. He captured his riding of Beauce with 67 per cent of the vote that year and has easily won re-election every time since.

He said he expects he’ll have a strong campaign in Quebec but that he’s running to represent all Canadians.

Ontario MP Kellie Leitch filed her papers on Wednesday. Others contemplating a run include Ontario MPs Tony Clement, Lisa Raitt and Michael Chong; Saskatchewan MP Andrew Scheer; Alberta MP Jason Kenney; and former Nova Scotia MP Peter MacKay.

Bernier has long been a champion of supply management in his province, an economic philosophy seemingly out of step with his other more libertarian views about removing government involvement from the private sector.

He said Canadians should stay tuned for more discussion of those and other policies.

He’s also aware he has baggage. Bernier was turfed from his post as foreign affairs minister in former prime minister Stephen Harper’s cabinet after leaving confidential papers at the home of his then-girlfriend.

“I dealt with that seven years ago and I showed to Canadians that I learned from that and I showed to Canadians that I’m a principled politician and Canadians will discover me in the near future in more detail,” he said.

“They will know the man behind the politics.”

While Bernier says he’s running now because he’s ready, there are other factors at play for him, as well as anyone else deciding when to officially enter the race.

Annual limits on donations to leadership campaigns mean anyone who signs up in 2016 can get people to donate the maximum twice — this year and next. Conservatives will vote for a new leader on May 27, 2017.

Selling memberships is another key goal. Members who want to vote in the race must have been signed up prior to March 28, 2017, but there’s an incentive in place to get it done faster.

The party is reimbursing candidates $5 for every member they sign up between now and the end of October and a $5 fee if they’re signed up after Feb. 28, 2017 — the cut-off date for registering to run in the race.

There are currently more than 100,000 members of the Conservative party. A single year’s membership costs $25.

During the last election, a lot of people expressed to me that they wished the Libertarian Party of Canada had a candidate in their riding so they could vote for them. IMO, Maxime Bernier winning the Conservative leadership race would be a libertarian's wet dream. I will most definitely be joining the party and doing anything I can do help his campaign. For those that expressed a desire to vote libertarian, hopefully you will be able to vote libertarian by voting for a Maxime Bernier-led CPC in 2019. It's a gamble because if some social conservative wins the race I will lament for my membership fees which are gone to support something I despise, but c'est la vie.

My fear right now, however, is that the mainstream media will deliberately ignore Maxime Bernier, much like the mainstream media in the US seemed to deliberately ignore Ron Paul. I have already seen signs of this, such as a CBC article a month ago showing all the potential leaders of the party, and not even mentioning Maxime Bernier.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: jollyjacktar on April 10, 2016, 11:35:45
So, I'm confused.  Are you wanting him to get the nod because he's really a Libertarian in disguise or that he will create Libertarians because he's Ted Cruze lite? Or something equally appalling.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: ballz on April 10, 2016, 11:57:42
So, I'm confused.  Are you wanting him to get the nod because he's really a Libertarian in disguise or that he will create Libertarians because he's Ted Cruze lite? Or something equally appalling.

I want him to get the nod because he is a legit libertarian, and he's not in disguise at all, he's been pretty outspoken about it. He just happens to be trying to create change through being a member of the CPC instead of the LPoC (much like Ron Paul was a libertarian in the Republican Party).

The only policy he supports that is not libertarian (that I know of) is supply chain management. Haven't heard his arguments for it, but you know what, I can live with it for now given all his other libertarian principles, no one is perfect after all.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: jollyjacktar on April 10, 2016, 12:03:08
OK gotcha.  My only real objection to him is his lack of smarts with respect to his biker girlfriend and crown documents.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Chris Pook on April 10, 2016, 13:24:21
I want him to get the nod because he is a legit libertarian, and he's not in disguise at all, he's been pretty outspoken about it. He just happens to be trying to create change through being a member of the CPC instead of the LPoC (much like Ron Paul was a libertarian in the Republican Party).

The only policy he supports that is not libertarian (that I know of) is supply chain management. Haven't heard his arguments for it, but you know what, I can live with it for now given all his other libertarian principles, no one is perfect after all.

Actually, I find myself in agreement with many of his positions.  For him government is the fallback position - not the main effort.  That I like.  And, like him, I find myself generally disinterested in personal morality issues. 
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Journeyman on April 10, 2016, 15:11:52
..... his lack of smarts with respect to his biker girlfriend ......
I have no heartache with biker girlfriends.    :nod:
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: dapaterson on April 10, 2016, 15:30:43
I have no heartache with biker girlfriends.    :nod:
...as long as they keep your secrets  ;)
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Fishbone Jones on April 10, 2016, 15:33:15
...as long as they keep your secrets  ;)

Not possible.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Chris Pook on April 10, 2016, 15:58:15
Not possible.

And that knowledge alone may be enough to keep a man honest.  :nod:
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Oldgateboatdriver on April 10, 2016, 16:18:40
...as long as they keep your secrets  ;)

And keep wearing those low-cut dresses  [:D.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: milnews.ca on May 25, 2016, 16:01:52
The latest list o' names (http://blogs.canoe.com/davidakin/politicsconservatives/doctor-who-served-in-afghanistan-planning-tory-leadership-bid/) via Sun Media's David Akin ...
Quote
Colleague Anthony Furey has the latest news from the Conservative leadership race (http://www.torontosun.com/2016/05/25/doctor-who-served-in-afghanistan-planning-tory-bid):

An accomplished physician who served on five tours of duty in Afghanistan is testing the waters for a possible run to lead the federal Conservatives.

Most Canadians won’t have heard of Edmonton physician Dan Lindsay – who’s served as president of the College of Physician and Surgeons of Manitoba during his 35-year career.

But getting Lindsay’s name out there will be the goal of an exploratory committee that’s been launched, and that includes Alberta Sen. Betty Unger. Lindsay served as a civilian medical specialist at the Canadian trauma hospital in Kandahar.

In a statement, he describes conservative values as “the opportunity to succeed and be rewarded for hard work; to care for ourselves, our families and for those that are less fortunate; and to promote a government that respects and manages tax dollars prudently.”

So far only Michael Chong and Kellie Leitch from Ontario and Maxime Bernier from Quebec have formally announced their candidacies. Peter MacKay and Kevin O’Leary, who lead in the polls, have kept mum on their intentions.

The Tory convention begins Thursday in Vancouver, where those vying for the leadership will work to woo party members.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Colin P on May 26, 2016, 17:41:55
Less concerned about the leader then I am in ensuring that the future CPC MP's are not kept as trained seals only to bark and act upon command.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: George Wallace on June 03, 2016, 08:40:45
Even though he is not in the ring (yet) to become the new Conservative Leader, but still a possibility, Kevin O'Leary sits down for an interview at the Conservative Convention in Vancouver with Ezra Levant.  He lays out some of his views and proposals.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d7VGE_cmnp8
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Oldgateboatdriver on June 03, 2016, 09:48:32
Nice find George.

He is definitely not another Trump if this interview is any indication. Very savvy use of the media (even though, Ezra is on side and did not ask the toughest of questions). He kept the tone level throughout, deflected the questions he wanted to avoid and got back on his message all the time. Moreover, the said message comes across as something on which he has reflected - not as a "spur of the moment, come out with an instant position that will rouse these people" type of deal à la Trump.

Two small notes:

1) To avoid answering about his lack of French, he talks about being a Montrealer and understanding Quebec. He is probably right: Montreal does claim him as its own even now. And he is correct also that - at least in Montreal - we prefer people that have a poor level of French to simply admit it, apologize and then we will speak with them in English. However, I happen to know that he speaks some french: he simply abhors using it because it is not at the level he believes sufficient for the task, which make him look weak or unintelligent, and he doesn't like that in any language.

2) I also like the fact that he recognizes that "peace making" (and he referred to Cyprus) is war, and requires soldiers at the top of their profession and game. I won't comment on whether that's the way to go or not - but at least he appears to have an understanding of what it entails that is superior to the "sunny ways" of the Liberals who seem to think that just because people in canadian military uniforms show up somewhere, peace breaks out and it's a love in.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: GAP on June 03, 2016, 10:11:47
I just want someone competent, preferably with some good solid life experience, other than being a drama school teacher or a career politician who has only learned wordsmithing as a trade.....
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Oldgateboatdriver on June 03, 2016, 10:27:36
I just want someone competent, preferably with some good solid life experience, other than being a drama school teacher or a career politician who has only learned wordsmithing as a trade.....

Then he couldn't have been a good student  ;D

One of my sons gets very annoyed whenever he hears JT speak in front of cameras, because every third word or so is a "eeeeeeeeeeh". It goes like "we will eeeeeee in a short eeeeeeeee time eee do the eeee right thing. eeeeeeee."

I hadn't noticed until my son pointed it out - and now I can't help but here it all the time and it is annoying.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: George Wallace on June 03, 2016, 10:31:30
Then he couldn't have been a good student  ;D

One of my sons gets very annoyed whenever he hears JT speak in front of cameras, because every third word or so is a "eeeeeeeeeeh". It goes like "we will eeeeeee in a short eeeeeeeee time eee do the eeee right thing. eeeeeeee."

I hadn't noticed until my son pointed it out - and now I can't help but here it all the time and it is annoying.

It has become so bad that it has become a "Drinking Game".  For every "uh!" one is to take a drink.  One may be totally passed out before he finishes.   >:D
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Oldgateboatdriver on June 03, 2016, 11:04:16
You better have a whole bunch of drinks ready because you have to down them real fast and there is no time between "uh's!" to refill.  :blotto:
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: GAP on June 03, 2016, 11:47:49
He needs to go to a Toastmasters meeting. His speech ability is horrible.

It may be endearable to the teenyboppers, but Good God ! get a grip and learn how speak publicly.....
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Fishbone Jones on June 03, 2016, 12:21:10
You better have a whole bunch of drinks ready because you have to down them real fast and there is no time between "uh's!" to refill.  :blotto:

When he appears on the screen, you may as well chug the whole bottle and get it over with. 8)
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: whiskey601 on June 03, 2016, 13:29:02
I think at times Ezra pushed his buttons and could have irritated O'Leary immensely if KO had a thinner skin.
Some key words:
"..Morneau's telephone book budget..."
"...takers not makers..."
"... no government has ever spent that much money successfully..."
"...Trudeau is a giant meat grinder of taxpayer money..."
".... we need better stewards in place..."
"...I want Canadian people to enjoy their time while they live on earth..."



Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: milnews.ca on June 22, 2016, 08:07:33
More evidence one of the contenders may be out of the federal race (http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/jason-kenney-political-future-1.3646180) ...
Quote
Conservative MP Jason Kenney is poised to announce this summer that he will leave federal politics, fuelling expectations that he intends to run a campaign to unite the right in his home province of Alberta.

Sources tell CBC News that Kenney made his decision following a series of weekend meetings with key friends and advisers in Ottawa and Calgary.

The group includes former MP Monte Solberg, former Conservative campaign guru Tom Flanagan as well as a number of key figures in the former Harper government: Howard Anglin, Mark Cameron and Ian Brodie.

Kenney's decision will be huge, not only in Alberta where the fractured right-of-centre vote contributed to the NDP's stunning majority win last year, but in federal politics.

He's considered a leading contender to replace Stephen Harper, and there's been intense pressure on him to run to replace the former prime minister.

"I feel that if I decide to run I would have very broad and very deep support in the party," he said in a May 28 interview with CBC Radio's The House. "But this still doesn't make it an automatic decision for me. There's a lot to reflect on and that's what I'm taking time to do." ...
:pop:
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Good2Golf on June 23, 2016, 08:28:44
Looks like Kenney and MacKay are developing "the Plan"....

:pop: indeed...
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: milnews.ca on July 04, 2016, 07:27:03
At least one of the leadership contenders participates in Toronto's pride parade (http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/conservative-contenders-gay-pride-1.3659699) ...
(https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.cbc.ca%2F1.3415901.1453492188%21%2FcpImage%2FhttpImage%2Fimage.jpg_gen%2Fderivatives%2F16x9_620%2Fconservatives-at-toronto-pride-parade.jpg&hash=4626a1c959f306c4737062bd9753ebd8)
... while one wonders where the sign slogans might have come from? (https://www.facebook.com/ronaambrose/photos/pcb.10153809582833525/10153809582583525/?type=3&theater)  ;D
(https://scontent-lga3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/t31.0-8/13603370_10153809582183525_8814380075255694159_o.jpg)
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: milnews.ca on July 05, 2016, 07:29:51
Looks like Kenney and MacKay are developing "the Plan"....

:pop: indeed...
Latest on Kenney's plan (http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/jason-kenney-alberta-pc-wildrose-leadership-1.3664666) ...
Quote
Conservative MP Jason Kenney will announce he is making a bid to run for the leadership of the Alberta Progressive Conservative Party in Calgary this Wednesday, CBC News has confirmed.

Sources also say he is looking to merge the right in his home province by calling on Progressive Conservatives and members of the Wildrose to come together to better fight the progressive forces of the current NDP government ...
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: milnews.ca on July 12, 2016, 11:52:09
Next up (http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/07/11/tony-clement-conservative-leadership-race-2017_n_10927434.html) ...
Quote
Former cabinet minister Tony Clement will announce (today) he is entering the Conservative leadership race.

The four-time Tory MP for Parry Sound—Muskoka invited friends on Facebook last week to a "special announcement" at the Royal Canadian Legion's Streetsville branch in Mississauga Tuesday evening.

Clement told The Huffington Post Canada on Sunday that he is "very" excited ...
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Thucydides on July 14, 2016, 19:03:21
Less concerned about the leader then I am in ensuring that the future CPC MP's are not kept as trained seals only to bark and act upon command.

Don't worry. Once the LPC rams PR through, ALL MP's will exist to be trained seals....
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: milnews.ca on July 14, 2016, 19:51:42
Don't worry. Once the LPC rams PR through, ALL MP's will exist to be trained seals....
Betcha once they get it through their heads that they'll NEVER have a majority (or anyone else, for that matter) under PR, they'll eeeeeeeeeeeeease out of that promise pretty quick.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Thucydides on July 17, 2016, 12:04:33
Betcha once they get it through their heads that they'll NEVER have a majority (or anyone else, for that matter) under PR, they'll eeeeeeeeeeeeease out of that promise pretty quick.

Depends on what Gerald Butts' actual objective is. If it is denying Conservatives and conservative voters any chance at power, or to at least maintain a working LPC grip on power through manipulating minority governments (advancing or denying votes to coalition partners in return for promoting LPC policies and rewarding LPC crony's), then I think he'll be just fine with that.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: milnews.ca on July 17, 2016, 15:17:14
Depends on what Gerald Butts' actual objective is. If it is denying Conservatives and conservative voters any chance at power, or to at least maintain a working LPC grip on power through manipulating minority governments (advancing or denying votes to coalition partners in return for promoting LPC policies and rewarding LPC crony's), then I think he'll be just fine with that.
But they'd also have to risk the rise of smaller right-side-of-the-spectrum parties that could, like in a lot of places with PR governments, could wield power in a coalition.  Be careful that you wish for ...
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Old Sweat on August 08, 2016, 17:55:27
According to this Canadian Press story reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act, Erin O'Toole is considering running for leader of the CPC.

Former veterans affairs minister O’Toole considering run for Tory leadership

By The Canadian Press — Aug 8 2016

OTTAWA — Former veterans affairs minister Erin O'Toole is considering a run for leadership of the federal Conservative party.

The Ontario MP was first elected in 2012 in a by-election to replace former Tory cabinet minister Bev Oda, who resigned after a furor over her international travel expenses.

O'Toole sought the interim leadership of the party after last fall's federal election, saying he wanted to show the party was serious about rebuilding.

Conservative party sources say while his name has long been bandied about, efforts to draft him have picked up steam in recent weeks as the party begins planning for the fall leadership debates.

O'Toole declined to comment but did not deny he is now thinking about a bid.

Conservatives will choose a new leader next May.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: MCG on August 08, 2016, 19:18:44
Don't worry. Once the LPC rams PR through, ALL MP's will exist to be trained seals....
Except, the Liberal Party never promised PR.  The party promised a change from FPTP, and the party leader has indicated his leanings in favour of  preferential ballots. 

Thucydides, given the volumes that you dump into political threads, I would expect you must understand the difference between proportional and preferential systems.  So, why the intellectual dishonesty with this strawman based appeal to fear?
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Bird_Gunner45 on August 08, 2016, 20:18:51
Except, the Liberal Party never promised PR.  The party promised a change from FPTP, and the party leader has indicated his leanings in favour of  preferential ballots. 

Thucydides, given the volumes that you dump into political threads, I would expect you must understand the difference between proportional and preferential systems.  So, why the intellectual dishonesty with this strawman based appeal to fear?

I agree that the Liberals seemed more in tune with the preferential ballots than PR specifically.

Based on this graph from the 308.com, I can see why- it basically gives them complete power (AV=Preferential ballot) based on today's polls.

The assumption made is that NDP would put Liberals second and conservatives would put liberals second.


Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: milnews.ca on August 08, 2016, 20:31:05
Based on this graph from the 308.com, I can see why- it basically gives them complete power (AV=Preferential ballot) based on today's polls.

The assumption made is that NDP would put Liberals second and conservatives would put liberals second.
Now THAT's a plan the Liberals can get behind!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  #selfishdemocracy
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: milnews.ca on August 31, 2016, 07:24:05
The latest on O'Toole (http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/national/erin+99toole+quickly+emerging+preferred+leadership+hopeful+many/12160432/story.html) ...
Quote
Conservative parliamentarians and long-time Tory operatives sitting on the sidelines of the leadership contest are anxiously hoping MP Erin O’Toole will jump into the race, believing he’s the best candidate to broaden party support and defeat the Liberals.

Momentum for O’Toole is building as some recent signs suggest longtime cabinet minister Peter MacKay, considered a possible frontrunner, might decide to stay out.

O’Toole, a former cabinet minister in the late stages of the Harper government, is expected to decide in a matter of days, according to a source familiar with his plans.

Party leadership races are far from an exact science, but a growing number of Conservative members of Parliament and organizers says the affable MP for Durham checks most of the boxes the party needs in its next leader.

O’Toole is young (43), from Ontario, married with two young kids. He represents a riding in the Greater Toronto Area, but lives in a small community and has rural sensibilities.

He also served in the military, has strong ties to Atlantic Canada, and business experience in downtown Toronto. He is seen as levelheaded and a good communicator.

Then there’s his good foundation in French (although he would need to brush up on it to be fully bilingual) and the fact he can trumpet his cabinet experience without carrying the baggage of the Harper government.

Above all, perhaps, he would represent a change for the Conservatives ...
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Lightguns on August 31, 2016, 08:17:58
He works for me, I have spoken with him during my pension crisis and he is very able. 
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Brihard on August 31, 2016, 09:56:34
My experiences with O'Toole in the interactions I've had with VAC in a minor advisory role were very positive. The man knows how to reach out, communicate, and listen. I believe he was badly constrained by Harpers fiscal restrictions, but he definitely gave a damn. He'd be my pick.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Good2Golf on August 31, 2016, 12:34:20
...and he survived years of flying in the Sea King! :nod:  ;)

Erin is a genuinely good person and is closer to the Red Tory/Blue Liberal nexus than many other(if not all) candidates.  That nexus is where the battle in 2019 will most certainly be focussed.

Mein :2c:

G2G
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Altair on August 31, 2016, 12:40:38
I would vote for O'toole.

Makes me hope they go for o'leary.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Jed on August 31, 2016, 12:57:11
I would vote for O'toole.

Makes me hope they go for o'leary.

Your colors are showing.  [:D   One should hope for the best candidate for all political parties for the betterment of all.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Remius on August 31, 2016, 13:18:38
Your colors are showing.  [:D   One should hope for the best candidate for all political parties for the betterment of all.

Whoever they pick will likely lose to Trudeau.  not because they aren't good or anything it's just that the electorate will likely stay with him barring something immense happening.

So O'toole loses, leadership race again and what not.  I suspect the smarter ones are waiting for the election after the next one where Trudeau's shine will likely be completely gone.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Jed on August 31, 2016, 13:23:33
Whoever they pick will likely lose to Trudeau.  not because they aren't good or anything it's just that the electorate will likely stay with him barring something immense happening.

So O'toole loses, leadership race again and what not.  I suspect the smarter ones are waiting for the election after the next one where Trudeau's shine will likely be completely gone.

Your colors are showing too.  [:D Unless you are just having a pessimistic outlook.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Remius on August 31, 2016, 13:39:04
Your colors are showing too.  [:D Unless you are just having a pessimistic outlook.

No I'm being realistic.  The opposition is currently disoriented.  The NDP is completely messed up that I doubt they will attract any significant liberal votes.  None of their leadership hopefuls are anything special or inspiring for that matter and the party itself doesn't know if it wants to go far left or stay in the center.

The CPC is in better shape.  Good talent.  But whoever runs in the next federal election will be wearing all the baggage of the last CPC government and people won't be tired of Trudeau yet.  and this is all dependant as well on how a Tory convention will shape up.  I am sure that their our elements of the party that will be dissatisfied with certain directions the party is going.  the party is working hard to show a united front but a leadership race could wreck that.  The leaders that should run should wait.  Losing the next time will mean political suicide. 
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: ModlrMike on August 31, 2016, 15:04:32
No I'm being realistic.  The opposition is currently disoriented.  The NDP is completely messed up that I doubt they will attract any significant liberal votes.  None of their leadership hopefuls are anything special or inspiring for that matter and the party itself doesn't know if it wants to go far left or stay in the center.

The CPC is in better shape.  Good talent.  But whoever runs in the next federal election will be wearing all the baggage of the last CPC government and people won't be tired of Trudeau yet.  and this is all dependant as well on how a Tory convention will shape up.  I am sure that their our elements of the party that will be dissatisfied with certain directions the party is going.  the party is working hard to show a united front but a leadership race could wreck that.  The leaders that should run should wait.  Losing the next time will mean political suicide.

I think you're overlooking the obvious elephant in the room: the Conservatives can form the government without taking Quebec, the Liberals can not. If Quebec turns away from the Liberals towards the Bloc or NDP again, then there's unlikely to be enough seats left in the rest of Canada to assure them of carrying the day.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Altair on August 31, 2016, 15:16:52
I think you're overlooking the obvious elephant in the room: the Conservatives can form the government without taking Quebec, the Liberals can not. If Quebec turns away from the Liberals towards the Bloc or NDP again, then there's unlikely to be enough seats left in the rest of Canada to assure them of carrying the day.
The bloc and NDP look like spent forces in Quebec right now.

Probably going to get worst once their new leaders are found.

That said it is the most politically unpredictable province so you never can know.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Remius on August 31, 2016, 15:34:56
I think you're overlooking the obvious elephant in the room: the Conservatives can form the government without taking Quebec, the Liberals can not. If Quebec turns away from the Liberals towards the Bloc or NDP again, then there's unlikely to be enough seats left in the rest of Canada to assure them of carrying the day.

You are also overlooking the fact that right now the Bloc is a non factor.  it could change but I think it isn't going to get any better.  The NDP is looking less and less like an option.  Even with a Quebec leader they weren't able to take that province.  Jack Layton is dead and I suspect the NDP's chance of another Orange wave died with him.

But I think your math is off.  In the last election, even if the Liberals had no seats (ie all 40 seats they have now were gone) in Quebec.  And the unlikely scenario of all 40 going to the CPC, the Liberals still win, albeit a minority situation.  So yes they can win without Quebec.  In fact the last election, Quebec didn't win it for them it just gave them their majority.

That being said a CPC leader could survive if they reduced the LPC to a minority situation.  A far more likely scenario that defeating the LPC under Trudeau.

For the record, this isn't a question of me supporting the LPC.  I'm just looking at the facts and the current situation and unfortunately I don't see a viable leader that can take them on right now in any party nor do I think that one will come along in time to dethrone him. 
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: QV on August 31, 2016, 21:01:17
There is plenty of time for a CPC leader to dethrone Trudeau.  McKay has a shot in my opinion, he will surely put a dent in the liberal tide out on the East coast.  And the liberals will probably have enough blunders between now and 2019 to sour their popularity where many of the ABC/ABH crowd will come back.  Time will tell I suppose.  I think the libs will be beat on the economy ultimately.   
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Altair on September 01, 2016, 19:04:18
So the same woman who helped propose the barbaric cultural practices hotline sends out a survey asking her supporters  if Canada should screen immigrants for animals Canadian values.

Hmmmm...

That can only end well.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: MCG on September 02, 2016, 00:53:07
... asking her supporters if Canada should screen immigrants for animals Canadian values.
Auto correct did something weird to your "anti-Canadian" ... or did you find a different article where she wants immigrants who are more tuned to nature?

 http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/kellie-leitch-survey-question-1.3744948
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Altair on September 02, 2016, 01:19:18
Auto correct did something weird to your "anti-Canadian" ... or did you find a different article where she wants immigrants who are more tuned to nature?

 http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/kellie-leitch-survey-question-1.3744948
auto correct. Terrible invention.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Journeyman on September 02, 2016, 01:21:36
auto correct. Terrible invention.
Proofreading. Free.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Altair on September 02, 2016, 02:49:46
Proofreading. Free.
every now and again something is going g to slip by.

Not even durex is 100 percent effective.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Fishbone Jones on September 02, 2016, 03:03:34
every now and again something is going g to slip by.

Not even durex is 100 percent effective.

Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Lightguns on September 02, 2016, 07:53:52
Whoever they pick will likely lose to Trudeau.  not because they aren't good or anything it's just that the electorate will likely stay with him barring something immense happening.

So O'toole loses, leadership race again and what not.  I suspect the smarter ones are waiting for the election after the next one where Trudeau's shine will likely be completely gone.

I smell a Peter Peter Reform Appeaser
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Lumber on September 02, 2016, 09:37:10
Whoever they pick will likely lose to Trudeau.  not because they aren't good or anything it's just that the electorate will likely stay with him barring something immense happening.

So O'toole loses, leadership race again and what not.  I suspect the smarter ones are waiting for the election after the next one where Trudeau's shine will likely be completely gone.

And people say politicians don't think about the long haul...
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Bird_Gunner45 on September 02, 2016, 10:58:38
Proofreading; Free.

FTFY. Semi-colon is better for attaching these independent clauses  [:)
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Remius on September 02, 2016, 14:03:14
And people say politicians don't think about the long haul...

My prediction?  Rona Ambrose returns as leader after the next election loss.  I really thought she was going to make a move to Alberta Politics but she may be setting herself up to pick up the pieces after the next election and cruise to victory in the one after. 
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: jollyjacktar on September 02, 2016, 15:55:09
Do think Canadians will be tired of the Liberals crap after two terms?
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Remius on September 02, 2016, 18:25:43
Do think Canadians will be tired of the Liberals crap after two terms?

That's my thought on it yes.  But more along the lines of that it will take at least two terms. 
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Old Sweat on September 02, 2016, 18:34:33
The CPC strategy could be to aim to reducing/eliminating the Liberal majority in 2019 and replacing them in government in 2023. Governments tend to defeating themselves by getting complacent, lazy and especially if Liberal by developing a sense of entitlement. Therefore however the CPC select as leader would not be someone to be dropped if he/she does not win in 2019. Therefore whoever the leader is should have the smarts, energy and long view to aim for a term in opposition and one or two terms in power.

Easier said then done.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Altair on September 02, 2016, 19:42:39
The CPC strategy could be to aim to reducing/eliminating the Liberal majority in 2019 and replacing them in government in 2023. Governments tend to defeating themselves by getting complacent, lazy and especially if Liberal by developing a sense of entitlement. Therefore however the CPC select as leader would not be someone to be dropped if he/she does not win in 2019. Therefore whoever the leader is should have the smarts, energy and long view to aim for a term in opposition and one or two terms in power.

Easier said then done.
Wonder if the grammar police are going to give you a ticket.

But yes, depending on how well the new leader does they shouldn't be dropped after one election loss. I just wonder how patient the CPC members are. Tom Mulcair wanted to stay on to fight another day, e was pushed out instead.

Granted, should the CPC lose ground to the LPC next election that leader is probably toast.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: PuckChaser on September 02, 2016, 19:44:24
CPC could reduce the Liberal majority to a minority with the right leader and a well run campaign. There's already fuel for the election fire: limos, child benefit actually is less benefit than CPC benefit it replaced, and atrocious job numbers. If we continue to shed jobs after 4 years of giant deficits, it's proof the Gerald Butts vision of Canada doesn't work. Then again, it will likely depend on whether the MSM rides Trudeau's honeymoon for 4 years longer than it should be.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Altair on September 02, 2016, 20:25:16
CPC could reduce the Liberal majority to a minority with the right leader and a well run campaign. There's already fuel for the election fire: limos, child benefit actually is less benefit than CPC benefit it replaced, and atrocious job numbers. If we continue to shed jobs after 4 years of giant deficits, it's proof the Gerald Butts vision of Canada doesn't work. Then again, it will likely depend on whether the MSM rides Trudeau's honeymoon for 4 years longer than it should be.
With weed being legal and taxed next year I'm figuring those deficits won't be quite as large as promised.

As for job numbers, I agree; to a point.

If it continues to be isolated in Alberta and the resource sector fallout will be minimal. It's not like he rode the red wave into alberta and Saskatchewan. If there is widespread stagnation and weakness throughout multiple sectors nationwide he's probably done.

I don't know about you but I'm loving the new CCB. I get more money and it's tax free. Starting 2020 it will be indexed to inflation(something the PBO declined to mention)and MSM went with the sexier story of how the new CCB will be worth less as years go by.

As for the limos, they were repaid within the week so if you think that story will have the same legs as the 16 dollar cup of orange juice and 1000 dollar limorides that wasn't repaid for months you are free to think that.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: PuckChaser on September 10, 2016, 19:30:54
Interesting spin on the media hammering Kellie Leitch's "anti-Canadian values screening" proposal: Survey shows 2/3s of Canadians support it:

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/09/10/canadians-favour-screening-immigrant-values-poll-shows.html (https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/09/10/canadians-favour-screening-immigrant-values-poll-shows.html)

Quote
Canadians favour screening would-be immigrants for ‘anti-Canadian’ values, poll shows

Two-thirds of Canadians want prospective immigrants to be screened for “anti-Canadian” values, a new poll reveals, lending to idea stirring controversy in political circles.
A new Forum Research poll showed that 38 per cent of Canadians think the country admits too many immigrants while 13 per cent say too few are admitted. But 41 per cent think the number of admission is about right.
By Bruce Campion-Smith Ottawa Bureau
Sat., Sept. 10, 2016

OTTAWA—Two-thirds of Canadians want prospective immigrants to be screened for “anti-Canadian” values, a new poll reveals, lending support to an idea that is stirring controversy in political circles.

Conservative MP Kellie Leitch, a candidate in her party’s leadership contest, has floated the idea of screening newcomers for their attitudes on intolerance toward other religions, cultures and sexual orientations and reluctance to embrace Canadian freedoms.

A new Forum Research Inc. poll for the Star shows that Leitch may be tapping into an idea that Canadians favour with 67 per cent saying immigrants should indeed be screened for “anti-Canadian values.”

More importantly for Leitch, the poll shows that the idea is especially popular among Conservative supporters with 87 per cent backing the idea and just 8 per cent opposed compared to 57 per cent support among Liberals and 59 per cent for New Democrat voters.

That’s certain to be the reason that Leitch (Simcoe-Grey) proposed the idea — and has stuck by it in the face of criticism, said Lorne Bozinoff, president of Forum Research.

“If you’re going after the base, this is like red meat for them. They’re going to love this,” he said Friday. “This is hitting the nail right on the head.”

When asked to choose the values respondents believe are important, equality came out on top (27 per cent), followed by patriotism (15 per cent), fairness (12 per cent) and tolerance (11 per cent).

Conservative backers put patriotism at the top their list of important values. Liberals and New Democrats ranked equality as their first choice.

Just one-quarter of respondents disagreed with the idea of screening for values and nine per cent had no opinion.

The idea finds most support among those ages 45 to 64 (73 per cent); more men (70 per cent) than women (64 per cent); living in Quebec (71 per cent) and Ontario (70 per cent) than those in the Atlantic provinces (56 per cent).

Leitch raised the idea of screening would-be immigrants in a survey sent out by her campaign seeking input on issues.

But it has drawn flak, even from among Conservatives, who have sought to distance themselves from Leitch’s stance. Conservative interim leader Rona Ambrose said she doesn’t support the idea. Fellow Ontario MP Michael Chong, also contesting the leadership, said the suggestion that some immigrants are anti-Canadian “does not represent our Conservative party or our Canada.”

Very interesting that the support for the proposal is high among self-identified Liberal and NDP voters.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Thucydides on September 10, 2016, 21:27:09
That article simply demonstrates that John Ibbotson was essentially correct in "The Big Shift" (https://www.amazon.ca/Big-Shift-Canadian-Politics-Business/dp/1443416452), and that the same sort of unravelling of trust in the "elites" that propels Trump in the US, the Brexit in the UK and Nativist parties in Europe is not only just possible in Canada, but may almost be inevitable.

The extreme disconnect between the "Laurentian Elites" who champion mass immigration and other nonsense at *our* expense is going to create a larger and larger portion of the population who see that Canadian politics is not working for them or the supposed benefits of trade, multi billion dollar deficits or immigration are *not* accruing to them and eventually they will go looking for a Trump or Le Pen to lead them against these predatory "elites".

I had an interesting conversation with a correspondent who had the opportunity to sit in and discuss some of these issues with a cross section of these "elites" in a Toronto boardroom, and his impression is they simply have no idea of how their actions affect *us*, and unstated, since they have $500,000 to $1,000,000/year incomes and live in gated communities isolated from the rest of us, really don't care, since the effect of their policies and ideas on them will be minimal.

In any case, Canadians may well see their own Trump emerge soon. I rather hope there is a Canadian Trump, because the alternative is "the man on the white horse".
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Jarnhamar on September 10, 2016, 21:41:08
Quote from: Thucydides
because the alternative is "the man on the white horse".

and behold, a white horse, and he who sat on it had a bow; and a crown was given to him, and he went out conquering and to conquer?
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: milnews.ca on September 10, 2016, 22:01:07
With weed being legal and taxed next year I'm figuring those deficits won't be quite as large as promised.
That's a preeeeeeeeeeeeeeety optimistic timeline ...
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Thucydides on September 10, 2016, 22:25:03
and behold, a white horse, and he who sat on it had a bow; and a crown was given to him, and he went out conquering and to conquer?

No, not that man on the white horse.

For those who did not get the historical allusion, Napoleon is the "man on the white horse", who promised to provide peace and security to the French after the chaos of the Revolution and there of the Revolutionary committees. The French were happy to trade freedom for security, until they saw hat happened next.....
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: jollyjacktar on September 10, 2016, 23:04:31
They were happy enough while they were winning.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: SeaKingTacco on September 11, 2016, 01:00:04
Most people are....
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Altair on September 11, 2016, 01:06:49
That's a preeeeeeeeeeeeeeety optimistic timeline ...
http://globalnews.ca/news/2650706/canada-to-introduce-pot-legalization-legislation-in-2017/

Hmm?
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: PuckChaser on September 11, 2016, 01:37:57
http://globalnews.ca/news/2650706/canada-to-introduce-pot-legalization-legislation-in-2017/

Hmm?

Yep, and how about those 25,000 refugees by December? Only moved left by 3 months (27 Feb 16), and that's a relatively straight forward screening and transport process. Or maybe the defense policy review that was promised to be completed by this fall, and now is shifting to the nebulous target of "early 2017".
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Altair on September 11, 2016, 01:44:37
Yep, and how about those 25,000 refugees by December? Only moved left by 3 months (27 Feb 16), and that's a relatively straight forward screening and transport process. Or maybe the defense policy review that was promised to be completed by this fall, and now is shifting to the nebulous target of "early 2017".
Or the middle class tax cut that was done right away, the new CCB which was done in the first budget.

Sure, you can focus on things that didn't meet their time frame but quite a few of those promises were fulfilled in a timely manner.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: jollyjacktar on September 11, 2016, 01:58:14
Keep sipp'n that Kool-aid
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: PuckChaser on September 11, 2016, 02:09:46
Or the middle class tax cut that was done right away, the new CCB which was done in the first budget.

Sure, you can focus on things that didn't meet their time frame but quite a few of those promises were fulfilled in a timely manner.
Those are completely different things. Of course they made that timeline, it was literally made for them as budgets are always delivered in Feb. You also fail to remember that Trudeau said he'd start legalizing pot on "day one", causing massive headache for LEOs by people thinking pot was legal after he won the election. He didn't even start the process until 6 months later, and it will be at least 18 months after "day one" until anything resembling a bill will be ready. Then it'll take a few months of debate in the Commons, before having debate shut down because it will have to get done before summer recess 2017. Then it'll get kicked around in the Senate, adding another month or two. We very likely end up 2 full years late, with legislation on the books fall 2017.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: MCG on September 11, 2016, 02:10:54
Or the middle class tax cut that ...
... was actually a tax cut to above median income earners and benefit individuals up into the 90 something percentile.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Altair on September 11, 2016, 02:39:08
Those are completely different things. Of course they made that timeline, it was literally made for them as budgets are always delivered in Feb. You also fail to remember that Trudeau said he'd start legalizing pot on "day one", causing massive headache for LEOs by people thinking pot was legal after he won the election. He didn't even start the process until 6 months later, and it will be at least 18 months after "day one" until anything resembling a bill will be ready. Then it'll take a few months of debate in the Commons, before having debate shut down because it will have to get done before summer recess 2017. Then it'll get kicked around in the Senate, adding another month or two. We very likely end up 2 full years late, with legislation on the books fall 2017.
I really don't understand you.

So if the Liberals just went about starting day one, legalized pot with little study on the consequences, the legality,  etc they would have been seen as reckless.

When they take their time and consult, study and come up with a timeline of 2017 give or take a few months they are tardy? 

So they just can't win I guess.

Whatever.

My point was that pot will be legal in 2017 and tax revenue from that will start coming in. I stand by that. The forecasted deficits will be smaller when that new revenue stream comes online.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Altair on September 11, 2016, 02:42:12
Keep sipp'n that Kool-aid
As long as you keep blindly hating everything team red does up to and including drawing breath.

 :cheers:
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Altair on September 11, 2016, 02:46:13
... was actually a tax cut to above median income earners and benefit individuals up into the 90 something percentile.
And a tax hike on those making more than 200 thousand. Not exact a tax break for the rich.

Seriously, complaining about a tax break effecting too many people? Really? Must be doing something right.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: jollyjacktar on September 11, 2016, 03:04:41
As long as you keep blindly hating everything team red does up to and including drawing breath.

 :cheers:

Just as long as we understand each other...
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: MCG on September 11, 2016, 08:20:54
Seriously, complaining about a tax break effecting too many people?
Nope.  Disagree with false advertising though.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: milnews.ca on September 11, 2016, 08:55:41
http://globalnews.ca/news/2650706/canada-to-introduce-pot-legalization-legislation-in-2017/

Hmm?
That was their best guess five months ago - seen any more recent estimates with that short a timeline?  The most recent I've seen (Friday past) says the government may not even see a report recommending next steps until November (http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/pot-marijuana-legalization-consultations-1.3750985).  I'd bet a loonie all the steps needed for this to happen won't be done by 31 Dec 2017.

I'm for at least decriminalization of marijuana, but even I can see a whooooooooooooooole mess of stuff to be done to make that happen across Canada (given provincial fingers in the pie, too).  Just sayin' don't count those massive tax revenues before they're hatched.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Good2Golf on September 11, 2016, 10:01:10
http://globalnews.ca/news/2650706/canada-to-introduce-pot-legalization-legislation-in-2017/

Hmm?

....and they'll hold an open competition for the future fighter in 2016, etc....  :blah:

More of the same.

tic tock
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Hamish Seggie on September 11, 2016, 11:15:33
So what about Kelly Leitch's proposal that immigrants be screened for "anti Canadian values"?

Just what would be considered an "anti Canadian value"?

Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: PuckChaser on September 11, 2016, 11:24:05
Anything contrary to the Charter of Rights? I think that's a good start. It was also just a survey question with no plan behind it yet, once she provides details it'll clear a lot up.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Hamish Seggie on September 11, 2016, 11:29:52
Anything contrary to the Charter of Rights? I think that's a good start. It was also just a survey question with no plan behind it yet, once she provides details it'll clear a lot up.

The DCO and I had a discussion on this. He's not for it at all. Mind you he does like JT.

Thus far just about every potential Conservative leader has pretty much said its a non starter.


To my way of thinking, I didn't serve 35+ years to "tolerate" honour killings, mutilation, Sharia law etc.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: PuckChaser on September 11, 2016, 11:47:57
100% agree with you. I think there's a way to do it properly, within the context of the citizenship process in an interview. If we're going to screen refugees, it'd have to be very basic questions directly relating to rule of law (murder and abuse never justified, etc).
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Altair on September 11, 2016, 11:58:44
A feel good exercise at its best. People will learn what questions they need to lie about right quick.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Chris Pook on September 11, 2016, 11:59:20
How about having all interviews conducted by well-dressed young ladies, extending their hand for a handshake and saying "Welcome to Canada"?

Monitor reaction.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: PuckChaser on September 11, 2016, 12:02:49
How about having all interviews conducted by well-dressed young ladies, extending their hand for a handshake and saying "Welcome to Canada"?

Monitor reaction.

Probably the best way to do it.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Altair on September 11, 2016, 12:03:57
How about having all interviews conducted by well-dressed young ladies, extending their hand for a handshake and saying "Welcome to Canada"?

Monitor reaction.
What reaction would be appropriate?

Must maintain eye contact?
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Bird_Gunner45 on September 11, 2016, 12:15:38
Anything contrary to the Charter of Rights? I think that's a good start. It was also just a survey question with no plan behind it yet, once she provides details it'll clear a lot up.

The problem is determining what we define as "Canadian values". Using the charter of rights is fine, but it's interpretation is troublesome. Look at the debates about gay marriage or the wearing of burkha's/burkini's/religious articles of clothing.

That's why I think her proposal is illogical... we can't define or come to a consensus as a society on what our values are so how can we apply them to people coming in?

Finally, applying values tests are a slippery slope. If we expect immigrants to live by our values than what's to say we can't apply a similar test to individual Canadian citizens? Because I can list a whole hockey sock of people in each part of the country I've lived in whose beliefs are against the charter. People complain about the "thought police" and then jump on band wagons to enhance thought police...
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: dapaterson on September 11, 2016, 12:19:57
Canadian values: Poutine,  hockey, Timmys and beer.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Jed on September 11, 2016, 12:54:01
The problem is determining what we define as "Canadian values". Using the charter of rights is fine, but it's interpretation is troublesome. Look at the debates about gay marriage or the wearing of burkha's/burkini's/religious articles of clothing.

That's why I think her proposal is illogical... we can't define or come to a consensus as a society on what our values are so how can we apply them to people coming in?

Finally, applying values tests are a slippery slope. If we expect immigrants to live by our values than what's to say we can't apply a similar test to individual Canadian citizens? Because I can list a whole hockey sock of people in each part of the country I've lived in whose beliefs are against the charter. People complain about the "thought police" and then jump on band wagons to enhance thought police...


So therefore, we should just look the other way without making any attempt at vetting immigrants for appropriate Canadian lawful intent?  Sounds like you support the appeasement laisser faire approach that has worked so well in Europe.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Bird_Gunner45 on September 11, 2016, 14:25:02

So therefore, we should just look the other way without making any attempt at vetting immigrants for appropriate Canadian lawful intent?  Sounds like you support the appeasement laisser faire approach that has worked so well in Europe.

First... it's "laissez-faire" not "laisser faire"

Second.... not at all. There needs to be entrance standards and there has been entry standards that have provided a reasonable level of "vetting". Adding an arbitrary "values-based" checklist is different than basic vetting for criminal record, etc etc. The values based vetting is just there to make people feel better and will have no real impact on who comes in.

Just because I think Leitsch's proposal is illogical and has no real value doesn't mean I dont support vetting. Just vet based on actual, tangible things not someone's perceived "values".
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: dapaterson on September 11, 2016, 14:33:55
Perhaps the better question: what can you say about current vetting, and what is wrong with that process?  Or am I asking for facts to get in the way of a good rant?
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Altair on September 11, 2016, 14:40:13
Perhaps the better question: what can you say about current vetting, and what is wrong with that process?  Or am I asking for facts to get in the way of a good rant?
feels>facts.

Just look down south.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: PuckChaser on September 11, 2016, 15:16:10
Or look at Europe, and what unscreened migration is doing to countries there. 99% of immigrants or refugees won't be the issue, keeping the 1% out who want a passport of convenience/hold extremist views is what we should aim for.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: MCG on September 11, 2016, 15:35:00
Or look at Europe, and what unscreened migration is doing to countries there.
So, this is not Europe and there is screening here.  The discussion is not an examination of values screening verses no screening, it should be an examination of what values screening adds to current screening (or more appropriately, what is current screening lacking that values screening would correct).  Honour kills and mutilation are already things that we don't tolerate, so in this conversation they are red herrings at best.

There is also the question of practical implementation.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: jollyjacktar on September 11, 2016, 16:45:49
An overwhelming majority of Canadians like the idea of screening, even amongst the left.  (sorry, can't find the story easily on phone)  Survey approval ratings % were in the mid 80s, IIRC.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Jed on September 11, 2016, 17:08:29
First... it's "laissez-faire" not "laisser faire"

Second.... not at all. There needs to be entrance standards and there has been entry standards that have provided a reasonable level of "vetting". Adding an arbitrary "values-based" checklist is different than basic vetting for criminal record, etc etc. The values based vetting is just there to make people feel better and will have no real impact on who comes in.

Just because I think Leitsch's proposal is illogical and has no real value doesn't mean I dont support vetting. Just vet based on actual, tangible things not someone's perceived "values".


Sounds like we agree on this point.  Nothing wrong with some wordsmithing a Commander's Intent, though.  At least in my opinion, anyway.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Jarnhamar on September 11, 2016, 17:20:26
Not sure how effective screening would be.

Example.
"‘You are now in Canada’: Anger management ordered for Iranian-born man who attacked wife’s boss"

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/you-are-now-in-canada-anger-management-ordered-for-iranian-born-man-who-attacked-wifes-boss
Quote
An Iran-born Edmonton man has been ordered to take anger management courses following a “nasty” attack on his wife’s boss stemming from a male co-worker saying hello to her in a mall.

Aadel Moradi, 39, was given a suspended sentence and placed on probation for 18 months on Tuesday in provincial court after pleading guilty to assault charges over what was an apparent clash of cultures.
Quote
You are now in Canada. We do not place restrictions on the way that women live here, unlike in some other countries,” said MacDonald, adding it is “very sad” that Moradi doesn’t see it.
Quote
“No men are allowed to speak to his wife and she can’t speak to any men.”
Quote
Shaigec told court that Moradi, based on his culture and upbringing, had been offended by his wife’s co-worker approaching her in public and speaking to her without first introducing himself to Moradi.


This sounds like a prime example of a new comer to Canada who's culture clashes with ours except he's been in Canada 15 years.

The Oh it's my culture trash isn't an excuse.  If someone believes a certain barbaric way of acting is right, but
in order to get all the benefits that Canada offers them they need to say it's wrong, I'm pretty sure they'll just lie about it to get in. You can't change someone overnight, or in 15 years in some cases.





 
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Jed on September 11, 2016, 17:25:46
Not sure how effective screening would be.

Example.
"‘You are now in Canada’: Anger management ordered for Iranian-born man who attacked wife’s boss"

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/you-are-now-in-canada-anger-management-ordered-for-iranian-born-man-who-attacked-wifes-boss

This sounds like a prime example of a new comer to Canada who's culture clashes with ours except he's been in Canada 15 years.

The Oh it's my culture trash isn't an excuse.  If someone believes a certain barbaric way of acting is right, but
in order to get all the benefits that Canada offers them they need to say it's wrong, I'm pretty sure they'll just lie about it to get in. You can't change someone overnight, or in 15 years in some cases.

 

Agreed. But at least if incoming immigrants have this credo / gauntlet ? up front coming in country they can't say they weren't advised.
 
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Fishbone Jones on September 11, 2016, 18:43:27
Agreed. But at least if incoming immigrants have this credo / gauntlet ? up front coming in country they can't say they weren't advised.


.......and when they do try some of their horseshit, like the guy above, they can be warned and a second offence gets them sent packing.

Human Right Commissions and Tribunals need stringent guidelines when dealing with complaints of this nature, so they don't operate in the same wishy washy kumbaya mode that they have been. Personally, I think HRC's should be gotten rid of.

I believe there is no place in this country for muslim enclaves that exist to retain their ME culture of law and religion. If they can't fit into the bubble of the Charter of Rights & Freedoms, Canadian law and Canadian norms, they shouldn't be here.

They need a ROE when they come here for screening.
ie - In Canada women can wear what they want. Women can speak to who they want. Women do not require male escorts to go shopping. Leave the acid and flammables at home, we don't use them against women here and you can't drown all your daughters because they dress like Canadians and have Canadian friends.

Lastly, and most important, we have to stop letting the UNHCR decide who settles here. That job belongs to Canadians.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: ballz on September 11, 2016, 19:17:15
We have no principle belief to be the foundation of our "values," hence our values are relatively meaningless. The government infringes upon the Charter of Rights and Freedoms whenever it is convenient / in order to appease the majority (the reason we have a constitutional democracy is to stop the majority from committing tyranny against the minority). It's hard to screen for values when you have none, and its hard to tell people to do no harm to others when you constantly do so for your own benefit.

We choose willy nilly feelings instead of solid principles, and hence contradict our own "values" all the time.

Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: jollyjacktar on September 11, 2016, 21:45:16
As long as you keep blindly hating everything team red does up to and including drawing breath.

 :cheers:

I'm not totally blind in my distaste for team rouge. I have a good opinion of Sajin.   And "blind" insinuates without thought or consideration.  The distaste I have has been thought of.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Bird_Gunner45 on September 11, 2016, 21:57:38

.......and when they do try some of their horseshit, like the guy above, they can be warned and a second offence gets them sent packing.

Human Right Commissions and Tribunals need stringent guidelines when dealing with complaints of this nature, so they don't operate in the same wishy washy kumbaya mode that they have been. Personally, I think HRC's should be gotten rid of.

I believe there is no place in this country for muslim enclaves that exist to retain their ME culture of law and religion. If they can't fit into the bubble of the Charter of Rights & Freedoms, Canadian law and Canadian norms, they shouldn't be here.

They need a ROE when they come here for screening.
ie - In Canada women can wear what they want. Women can speak to who they want. Women do not require male escorts to go shopping. Leave the acid and flammables at home, we don't use them against women here and you can't drown all your daughters because they dress like Canadians and have Canadian friends.

Lastly, and most important, we have to stop letting the UNHCR decide who settles here. That job belongs to Canadians.

So, what do we do for born and raised Canadians who violate these values? The guy in Brantford was born here as an example. Do we strip them of citizenship? As for the other examples, females in Canada can go to any number of resources if they feel they are being abused or harassed and someone who murders their family are still liable to the penalties of law for murder (regardless of the why... what is the inherent difference between the mom who drowns her children because she gets angry at them or the dad who kills his daughter because he offends her? They're both murders and subject to the same punishment). The "strike" system is a slippery slope as it opens things up to false accusations and tiers of citizens, both of which are unacceptable in Canada.

The muslim enclave argument is off base as well. Almost all immigrant groups form enclaves upon arrival. There are still Ukrainian, German, Dutch, italian, chinese, indian, etc enclaves throughout Canada (each with their own unique "me" cultures). That's why there's no easy Canadian culture to define or Canadian values- these often differ by region. If we had done this for Germans (actually, we did... and Ukrainians, Japanese, etc) than we wouldn't have Oktoberfest nor would Germans have ever really integrated.

Next, the UNHCR doesn't decide who comes here, the government does. The government may accept recommendations, but the final say is with OUR government, so this is definitely a strawman.

Created dual systems in Canada wont help anyone integrate into our society. It just creates separate sets of rules for citizens and creates bitterness. The divide between classes and the anger in France is a big part of why they've had so many internal attacks... why would we want to emulate that?

Finally... there are no universal "Canadian values" so what would we ever base this on? It's foolish
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: MARS on September 11, 2016, 22:22:45

My point was that pot will be legal in 2016 and tax revenue from that will start coming in. I stand by that. The forecasted deficits will be smaller when that new revenue stream comes online.

It doesn't matter to me how long they take - I have no dog in this fight - but I am close to a public servant working on that file.  Summer 2017 for the staff to submit their way ahead plan up the chain, so add several months to that, at least, for vetting at higher levels
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: ModlrMike on September 11, 2016, 22:27:37
It doesn't matter to me how long they take - I have no dog in this fight - but I am close to a public servant working on that file.  Summer 2017 for the staff to submit their way ahead plan up the chain, so add several months to that, at least, for vetting at higher levels

Of course the US refusing entry to pot smokers won't have any effect on implementation.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Jed on September 12, 2016, 00:01:19
1.  So, what do we do for born and raised Canadians who violate these values? The guy in Brantford was born here as an example. Do we strip them of citizenship? As for the other examples, females in Canada can go to any number of resources if they feel they are being abused or harassed and someone who murders their family are still liable to the penalties of law for murder (regardless of the why... what is the inherent difference between the mom who drowns her children because she gets angry at them or the dad who kills his daughter because he offends her? They're both murders and subject to the same punishment). The "strike" system is a slippery slope as it opens things up to false accusations and tiers of citizens, both of which are unacceptable in Canada.

The muslim enclave argument is off base as well.  2. Almost all immigrant groups form enclaves upon arrival. There are still Ukrainian, German, Dutch, italian, chinese, indian, etc enclaves throughout Canada (each with their own unique "me" cultures). That's why there's no easy Canadian culture to define or Canadian values- these often differ by region. If we had done this for Germans (actually, we did... and Ukrainians, Japanese, etc) than we wouldn't have Oktoberfest nor would Germans have ever really integrated.

Next, the UNHCR doesn't decide who comes here, the government does. The government may accept recommendations, but the final say is with OUR government, so this is definitely a strawman.

3.  Created dual systems in Canada wont help anyone integrate into our society. It just creates separate sets of rules for citizens and creates bitterness. The divide between classes and the anger in France is a big part of why they've had so many internal attacks... why would we want to emulate that?

Finally... there are no universal "Canadian values" so what would we ever base this on? It's foolish


1. They are Canadian citizens. They get treated exactly the same as everybody else.  The laws of the land.

2. There is a big difference from the Euro type enclave and the way immigrants were invited into areas to be settled in Canada as they opened up sparsely populated areas 100 - 150 years ago.  Incoming people should have respect for the culture they are coming in to just as Canadians should have respect for whatever countries culture that they wish to go into.

3.  Of course. Everybody should follow the same rules.  Religious police  or Communist Political officers and what not are not welcome and should not be allowed  anymore than Biker gangs are allowed. It is all fine until laws are broken.   

Society has a way of naturally ostracizing those who refuse to fit in. Respect and Acceptance for the most part, need to be earned, not mandated and regulated.

Agitators of all sorts are now tolerated until the law gets sufficiently trampled on and the population rises up and says enough of this BS.

I could be wrong but I think you missed Recce's point that newbies should at least be given ROE's before they enjoy the fruits of our country.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Bird_Gunner45 on September 12, 2016, 00:29:15

1. They are Canadian citizens. They get treated exactly the same as everybody else.  The laws of the land.

2. There is a big difference from the Euro type enclave and the way immigrants were invited into areas to be settled in Canada as they opened up sparsely populated areas 100 - 150 years ago.  Incoming people should have respect for the culture they are coming in to just as Canadians should have respect for whatever countries culture that they wish to go into.

3.  Of course. Everybody should follow the same rules.  Religious police  or Communist Political officers and what not are not welcome and should not be allowed  anymore than Biker gangs are allowed. It is all fine until laws are broken.   

Society has a way of naturally ostracizing those who refuse to fit in. Respect and Acceptance for the most part, need to be earned, not mandated and regulated.

Agitators of all sorts are now tolerated until the law gets sufficiently trampled on and the population rises up and says enough of this BS.

I could be wrong but I think you missed Recce's point that newbies should at least be given ROE's before they enjoy the fruits of our country.

I understood his point, I just think he's dead wrong.

1. Naturalized Canadians and born Canadians, once given citizenship, must be judged against the same rules despite religious differences. Once they are approved for citizenship the vetting process has to end, full stop, as they are then expected to live under the same rules.We can't have classes of citizens. If we do, then where does our concept of "Canadian values" end? A Canadian is a Canadian is a Canadian. 

2. I think that if you studied European colonization you would appreciate that little has changed since Europeans arrived here. Catholic citizens of New France said the same thing about Huegenot (Protestant) immigrants coming to New France, English said the same of Irish and Scots, they all said the same of Ukrainians, Germans, and Italians, etc etc etc. Than those immigrants hate Chinese and black immigrants. I attached 4 x political cartoons from the 1800's (3 American, 1 Canadian) for context. These arguments are nothing new, and those who wish to continue them will just be on the wrong side of history again once a new Boogey man arises. I also attach this link. Yes, the Atlantic is left leaning, but the cartoons are period and historically accurate.

http://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2011/11/racist-anti-immigrant-cartoons-from-the-turn-of-the-20th-century/383248/

Also, find a link to a good book on racist immigration policies. It's from the Canadian Scholar's Press, so the validity is a touch higher than a blog.

http://www.cspi.org/books/the-history-of-immigration-and-racism-in-canada

3. Yes. All Canadian immigrants are vetted based on a large number of factors and do a citizenship test. Once the laws are broken the criminals are punished. Mrs Leitch's proposal doesn't assist any of this. Her prpposal would just lead to arbitrary "values" being used to test values... we have laws that are effective.

to reiterate- I know Syrian refugee's who share more of the "Canadians values" than many Canadians I've known, including some in the military. There is no way to 100% guarantee safety, but these measures just add to terrorist propaganda and serve to weaken the values that we are supposed to represent.

Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Jed on September 12, 2016, 00:58:08
BG45

I believe you are reading too much between the lines when you equate your last post wrt to past bigotry and racism to Ms Lietch's proposal to attempt 'enlightening' of incoming peoples to this great Country of ours as one and the same.

Is it too much to ask anyone to be cognizant of the Laws of the land and cultural norms before they become a citizen or even to reside in Canada for lengthy periods of time? I don't think so.  Most other countries in the world do not think so either.

Countries that have been foolish enough to just twiddle their thumbs and hope the problem goes away are now in great turmoil. ie France, Germany, Sweden, Britain, Australia.

Are the US and Canada now going to be cursed with the same problem?  Maybe we should be getting hard headed like Israel or Saudi Arabia and look after our current citizens first and foremost?

I personally believe in immigration.  I also believe it at least setting out the expectations prior to people enjoying the fruits of our great Country.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Bird_Gunner45 on September 12, 2016, 01:16:08
BG45

I believe you are reading too much between the lines when you equate your last post wrt to past bigotry and racism to Ms Lietch's proposal to attempt 'enlightening' of incoming peoples to this great Country of ours as one and the same.

Is it too much to ask anyone to be cognizant of the Laws of the land and cultural norms before they become a citizen or even to reside in Canada for lengthy periods of time? I don't think so.  Most other countries in the world do not think so either.

Countries that have been foolish enough to just twiddle their thumbs and hope the problem goes away are now in great turmoil. ie France, Germany, Sweden, Britain, Australia.

Are the US and Canada now going to be cursed with the same problem?  Maybe we should be getting hard headed like Israel or Saudi Arabia and look after our current citizens first and foremost?

I personally believe in immigration.  I also believe it at least setting out the expectations prior to people enjoying the fruits of our great Country.

We already do set out standards and have an expectation for incoming citizens:

http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/citizenship/become-eligibility.asp

We expect income tax filings, that persons not be convicted or on trial for a crime against Canadian law (for a time, but in extreme cases this would be a no go criteria), and that persons pass a citizenship test that includes history, VALUES, institutions, and symbols.

So what is missing that this plan would help?

That's why I disagree that I'm reading between the lines too much. It's just a new reiteration of the same examples I provided and that Trump is mouth breathing to our south. Like the literacy tests designed to keep the irish our of the US this test would be designed to keep our new undesirables out. The results will be the same.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Fishbone Jones on September 12, 2016, 01:54:15
Why wouldn't we want to keep undesirables out? :dunno:

So, if these others want to come here, to cut to the chase,  perhaps they need to understand and prove that they are familiar with our norms and sensibilities and that their barbaric tribal ideas and practices don't fly here. Should they violate them, they go to jail. Deny a service dog in your cab, go to jail. Berate someone for how they are dressed, yup, go to jail. Bring your daughter into emergency because their illegal circumcision::? Lose them to child services and go to jail. Rinse & repeat. The problem is with those that come here intent on converting and killing us.

Lastly, the enclaves in Europe have existed for a long time. Canada just needs to catch  up. The free city of Toronto has already allowed muslim only housing, refusing to let anyone else rent there, even though it's illegal to discriminate against them.

I refuse to sit by and accept that Trudeau's plan is good for everyone and the country. In my opinion, it's a scam for more votes, and for the sake of our citizens I hope people wake up.
 :2c:
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: milnews.ca on September 12, 2016, 07:44:46
Everyone loves it when the government of the day asks cultural questions they agree with. 

If you let one government of any stripe set up this kind of test, though, then any future government can change the questions -- even to ones folks may not like or agree with.  What then?

#thinedgeofthewedge

Lots of laws & rules out there to deal with illegal cultural practices - let's use those more aggressively  & consistently, shall we?

Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Bird_Gunner45 on September 12, 2016, 10:25:02
Why wouldn't we want to keep undesirables out? :dunno:

So, if these others want to come here, to cut to the chase,  perhaps they need to understand and prove that they are familiar with our norms and sensibilities and that their barbaric tribal ideas and practices don't fly here. Should they violate them, they go to jail. Deny a service dog in your cab, go to jail. Berate someone for how they are dressed, yup, go to jail. Bring your daughter into emergency because their illegal circumcision::? Lose them to child services and go to jail. Rinse & repeat. The problem is with those that come here intent on converting and killing us.

Lastly, the enclaves in Europe have existed for a long time. Canada just needs to catch  up. The free city of Toronto has already allowed muslim only housing, refusing to let anyone else rent there, even though it's illegal to discriminate against them.

I refuse to sit by and accept that Trudeau's plan is good for everyone and the country. In my opinion, it's a scam for more votes, and for the sake of our citizens I hope people wake up.
 :2c:

I meant "undesirables" in a sarcastic sense, in that this proposal is mostly an anti-muslim screening process in a similar vein to many historical ones. It was not a literal. I have noted several times with sources stating that we ALREADY screen and do values/history/institutional testing and have a standard.

How many people in Canada have suffered from illegal circumcisions? Some women who entered have, but I can't find a single case where it's happened here. So this is a simply bogeyman. Same for the other examples... aside from onesies and twosies these are not widespread occurrences.

As for enclaves, they exist in Canada. Just yesterday I went and bought corn from a hutterite colony in Manitoba. I grew up in Ontario around old order amish and Mennonites who lived in clusters, spoke different languages, and refused to integrate into Canadian society. When I lived in Vaughn, Ontario there was an Italian enclave. Brampton is a Hindu enclave. Perhaps we should kick out the Hutterites and amish too then? They often practice incest (debate as you want, but I GUARANTEE this one), force women to be subjugated, etc. Aside from you strawman argument that muslim people will be terrorists where's the outrage?

You can refuse to sit by all you want, but you're on the wrong side of history. Leitsch's values checklist is just a thinly veiled attempt to reach out to people's base fears. Look at any study which shows how many deaths are attributed to terrorism vs other ways of dying

Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Altair on September 12, 2016, 10:36:21
I meant "undesirables" in a sarcastic sense, in that this proposal is mostly an anti-muslim screening process in a similar vein to many historical ones. It was not a literal. I have noted several times with sources stating that we ALREADY screen and do values/history/institutional testing and have a standard.

How many people in Canada have suffered from illegal circumcisions? Some women who entered have, but I can't find a single case where it's happened here. So this is a simply bogeyman. Same for the other examples... aside from onesies and twosies these are not widespread occurrences.

As for enclaves, they exist in Canada. Just yesterday I went and bought corn from a hutterite colony in Manitoba. I grew up in Ontario around old order amish and Mennonites who lived in clusters, spoke different languages, and refused to integrate into Canadian society. When I lived in Vaughn, Ontario there was an Italian enclave. Brampton is a Hindu enclave. Perhaps we should kick out the Hutterites and amish too then? They often practice incest (debate as you want, but I GUARANTEE this one), force women to be subjugated, etc. Aside from you strawman argument that muslim people will be terrorists where's the outrage?

You can refuse to sit by all you want, but you're on the wrong side of history. Leitsch's values checklist is just a thinly veiled attempt to reach out to people's base fears. Look at any study which shows how many deaths are attributed to terrorism vs other ways of dying
Well, this line of politics has been refreshed and recycled throughout the years.

The Irish, the Italians,  the Chinese, Jamaicans,  Haitians, now people from the middle east. If it worked before why not now?
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Jed on September 12, 2016, 10:54:09
I meant "undesirables" in a sarcastic sense, in that this proposal is mostly an anti-muslim screening process in a similar vein to many historical ones. It was not a literal. I have noted several times with sources stating that we ALREADY screen and do values/history/institutional testing and have a standard.

How many people in Canada have suffered from illegal circumcisions? Some women who entered have, but I can't find a single case where it's happened here. So this is a simply bogeyman. Same for the other examples... aside from onesies and twosies these are not widespread occurrences.

As for enclaves, they exist in Canada. Just yesterday I went and bought corn from a hutterite colony in Manitoba. I grew up in Ontario around old order amish and Mennonites who lived in clusters, spoke different languages, and refused to integrate into Canadian society. When I lived in Vaughn, Ontario there was an Italian enclave. Brampton is a Hindu enclave. Perhaps we should kick out the Hutterites and amish too then? They often practice incest (debate as you want, but I GUARANTEE this one), force women to be subjugated, etc. Aside from you strawman argument that muslim people will be terrorists where's the outrage?

You can refuse to sit by all you want, but you're on the wrong side of history. Leitsch's values checklist is just a thinly veiled attempt to reach out to people's base fears. Look at any study which shows how many deaths are attributed to terrorism vs other ways of dying

This is just ridiculous.  It is an extreme stretch to associate / compare Hutterite colonies with Muslim enclaves around the world.  For the most part these colonies that are numerous throughout Canada function well within our Canadian laws and norms.

You could talk about Dukabors possibly, but eventually they have assimilated with the rest of the Canadian Society.

Could it be that the reason that Muslim peoples seem to be coming to the forefront in Societies concerns is because their religion eventually demands they force their practises on their neighbours and is totally intolerant of any other peoples way of life?

There have not been very many other peoples that strap on bombs to their feeble minded, and women and children on a regular basis and send them in to slaughter innocents.

You sound like an Extremist Muslim appeaser.  Is it too much to ask people to at least acknowledge a countries Laws and cultural norms?
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: jollyjacktar on September 12, 2016, 10:58:07
 :goodpost:  on the whole
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: PuckChaser on September 12, 2016, 13:23:11
Remember, if someone can't argue directly on the topic, they can just accuse you of racism to try to win the argument.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Jarnhamar on September 12, 2016, 13:34:13
Quote from: Altair
Well, this line of politics has been refreshed and recycled throughout the years.

The Irish, the Italians,  the Chinese, Jamaicans,  Haitians, now people from the middle east. If it worked before why not now?

I know. I don't even know why people are getting upset. Remember the crusades? Exactly. Plus people die every day from car accidents and stuff like that, people are just being racist.  There's no difference between what happened with the Irish and Italians with what's happening today world wide with Islam.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Fishbone Jones on September 12, 2016, 13:40:05
Remember, if someone can't argue directly on the topic, they can just accuse you of racism to try to win the argument.
Yup, but that must be a strawman
Look at any study which shows how many deaths are attributed to terrorism vs other ways of dying

32,658 people killed by terrorists around the world in 2014

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3322308/Number-people-killed-terrorists-worldwide-soars-80-just-year.html#ixzz4K3mBA8Uq

Almost 33,000 in one year. That's the reported ones and only one years statistics. If you think that's insignificant, I'll have to agree with Puckchaser this time.  There's not a lot we can do about medical diseases, industrial accidents, etc. However, stopping the slaughter of, mostly innocents, is something we can do something about. The perpetrators need killing. And that goes for wherever they are found.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: PuckChaser on September 12, 2016, 13:45:14
You can craft screening so it doesn't disadvantage or unfairly target specific groups of people, or verifiable refugees. Economic immigrants, especially unskilled workers should be subject to enhanced screening to see if their values system is compatible with Canadian laws and societal norms. No one accuses Australia is racism for having tight controls on immigration.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: George Wallace on September 12, 2016, 13:52:13
What about 'polygamy'?

How many potential, perhaps actual, cases of Welfare Fraud are being carried out by polygamists now living in ghettos?

Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Bird_Gunner45 on September 12, 2016, 13:54:49
This is just ridiculous.  It is an extreme stretch to associate / compare Hutterite colonies with Muslim enclaves around the world.  For the most part these colonies that are numerous throughout Canada function well within our Canadian laws and norms.

You could talk about Dukabors possibly, but eventually they have assimilated with the rest of the Canadian Society.

Could it be that the reason that Muslim peoples seem to be coming to the forefront in Societies concerns is because their religion eventually demands they force their practises on their neighbours and is totally intolerant of any other peoples way of life?

There have not been very many other peoples that strap on bombs to their feeble minded, and women and children on a regular basis and send them in to slaughter innocents.

You sound like an Extremist Muslim appeaser.  Is it too much to ask people to at least acknowledge a countries Laws and cultural norms?

Accusations and name calling are the lynch pin of politics in 2016, so you should probably keep that going. Grow up Peter Pan. Not all opinions have to fit neatly into A or B/Con or Lib categories. I'm not an appeaser of radical islam, I'm more anti racial profiling for immigration because I believe that western values and culture is better than it and have demonstrated how it is historically the precedent for Canada and the US. Whereas your arguments are based more on your feelings

You've heard of the crusades right? You know the biggest Canadian terrorist attack was by Sikhs right? The current practice for citizenship has a values based, history, and institutions based test that all have to pass. Like any other group of immigrants they'll settle in enclaves because of linguistic and cultural reasons, unless you've never noticed that Germans settled around Kitchener, Portuguese around Cambridge, Amish around St. Jacobs, Dutch around Ingersoll, etc etc. That doesn't mean that they're not assimilating. It means that they are initially more comfortable being around those that understand their socio-economic needs. Like when westerners move to other countries and settle in enclaves.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Jarnhamar on September 12, 2016, 13:56:10
Quote from: Jed

Could it be that the reason that Muslim peoples seem to be coming to the forefront in Societies concerns is because their religion eventually demands they force their practises on their neighbours and is totally intolerant of any other peoples way of life?

There have not been very many other peoples that strap on bombs to their feeble minded, and women and children on a regular basis and send them in to slaughter innocents.

You sound like an Extremist Muslim appeaser.  Is it too much to ask people to at least acknowledge a countries Laws and cultural norms?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bzEm4xuBhqg
Quote
What do you do when someone is Muslim and they want out of Islam? You kill them. You have to kill them, do you understand?  The judgement for adultery? Stone him until he dies.  Transgender or gay? Kill them. Throw them from the highest place

This was posted a few weeks ago. Not from Raqqa but apparently from a school in the UK. We would be naive to think this isn't happening in Canada as we speak.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: mariomike on September 12, 2016, 14:04:20
What about 'polygamy'?

How many potential, perhaps actual, cases of Welfare Fraud are being carried out by polygamists now living in ghettos?

I remember a funny thing on Bill Maher's show about that, "Would you rather be the second or third wife of Mel Gibson or the only wife of Willard Scott?”.

A lady replied, "If it comes to Mel Gibson, I wouldn’t care if I was one, two, or three.”

This was 20 years ago, so today I suppose we could substitute Matt Damon for Gibson. The principle remains the same.  :)

Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Fishbone Jones on September 12, 2016, 14:06:47
I know. I don't even know why people are getting upset. Remember the crusades? Exactly. Plus people die every day from car accidents and stuff like that, people are just being racist.  There's no difference between what happened with the Irish and Italians with what's happening today world wide with Islam.

Strange, I don't remember the Irish or Italians flying planes into buildings, or slaughtering whole villages after subjugating all the females, or using poison gas against civilians or inhumane ways of killing people by fire, beheading and stoning.

Is it racist to want to stop these animals? Is it unfortunate that the vast majority of these terrorists are muslim, but were we racist when we took on the Kaiser in WWI or the Axis in WWII? No, they were a threat to world peace and the government of the times decided to kick their *** and kill them into submission. During that time, immigration of the people considered the enemy was halted. It seems to have worked fine. What's changed?

The Crusades were centuries ago and most of humanity has moved on and evolved. People keep bringing it up, but it's pointless.

To reiterate what Puckchaser alluded to, the words racist, xenophobe, islamophobe, and all the other buzzword phobes are designed to limit, or end, discussion when you have exhausted your standpoint without being right or not having the facts to rebutt intellectually.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Jed on September 12, 2016, 14:16:30
Accusations and name calling are the lynch pin of politics in 2016, so you should probably keep that going. Grow up Peter Pan. Not all opinions have to fit neatly into A or B/Con or Lib categories. I'm not an appeaser of radical islam, I'm more anti racial profiling for immigration because I believe that western values and culture is better than it and have demonstrated how it is historically the precedent for Canada and the US. Whereas your arguments are based more on your feelings

You've heard of the crusades right? You know the biggest Canadian terrorist attack was by Sikhs right? The current practice for citizenship has a values based, history, and institutions based test that all have to pass. Like any other group of immigrants they'll settle in enclaves because of linguistic and cultural reasons, unless you've never noticed that Germans settled around Kitchener, Portuguese around Cambridge, Amish around St. Jacobs, Dutch around Ingersoll, etc etc. That doesn't mean that they're not assimilating. It means that they are initially more comfortable being around those that understand their socio-economic needs. Like when westerners move to other countries and settle in enclaves.

Looks like you are doing the name calling, but It doesn't bother me as long as you smile when you say it.  [:D

The whole world is racist. It has been forever.  The extent of racism is the issue.  Not one single person is without some bias.  It is how it is dealt with both individually and as a group that makes the difference.

I've been around a bit too and observed human nature at its best and worst.  Am I a tad emotional about this issue? You bet I am.  It upsets me considerably to see our Country being dragged down in to a cesspool due to people not speaking their mind or using any common sense.  It upsets me to see politicians of all stripes act dishonourably and suck in all sorts of useful idiots.

I have first hand experience with several of your 'enclaves' around the world and in Canada. I will take Canadian 'enclaves' any day before what we see now around the world.

You are a soldier. Stand up and help defend your country from obvious harmful individuals and / or cultural practises.


Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: George Wallace on September 12, 2016, 14:17:52
I remember a funny thing on Bill Maher's show about that, "Would you rather be the second or third wife of Mel Gibson or the only wife of Willard Scott?”.

A lady replied, "If it comes to Mel Gibson, I wouldn’t care if I was one, two, or three.”

This was 20 years ago, so today I suppose we could substitute Matt Damon for Gibson. The principle remains the same.  :)

However, we have Laws against "Human Trafficing"...... >:D
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: mariomike on September 12, 2016, 14:19:26
The free city of Toronto has already allowed muslim only housing, refusing to let anyone else rent there, even though it's illegal to discriminate against them.

More on that,

Toronto city councillor says Muslim-only subsidized housing is acceptable
http://globalnews.ca/news/2187517/toronto-city-councillor-says-muslim-only-subsidized-housing-is-acceptable/
TORONTO — A Toronto city councillor says a provision that allows only Ahmadiyya Muslims access to a city-subsidized apartment building is not unfair.

“We want people to live in a culturally-appropriate setting,” said Councillor Joe Cressy, of Ward 20 Trinity-Spadina.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: George Wallace on September 12, 2016, 14:22:44

The whole world is racist. It has been forever.  The extent of racism is the issue. 

Actually, I would say that it more human nature to be "BIASED" as opposed to "RACIST".  It is human nature to be suspicious of something new/unusual and be biased against it.  Once it has become a "known" the bias is usually gone.  "Racists" do not change their views.  Therefore, in your argument, I would suggest you substitute "biased" for "racist"......Which changes the whole message you are sending.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Jed on September 12, 2016, 14:31:26
Actually, I would say that it more human nature to be "BIASED" as opposed to "RACIST".  It is human nature to be suspicious of something new/unusual and be biased against it.  Once it has become a "known" the bias is usually gone.  "Racists" do not change their views.  Therefore, in your argument, I would suggest you substitute "biased" for "racist"......Which changes the whole message you are sending.

OK George, but when does BIAS morph into RACISM ? 
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: George Wallace on September 12, 2016, 14:33:48
OK George, but when does BIAS morph into RACISM ?

As I stated, 
Quote
"Racists" do not change their views.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: mariomike on September 12, 2016, 14:36:49
However, we have Laws against "Human Trafficing"...... >:D

True. But, perhaps most women benefit from polygamy, and most men benefit from monogamy?

George Bernard Shaw said, “The maternal instinct leads a woman to prefer a tenth share in a first rate man to the exclusive possession of a third rate one.”
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Jed on September 12, 2016, 14:39:03
I got that George but there is a time element to the change.  Many people assume RACIST when basically it is just BIAS not yet evolved.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: George Wallace on September 12, 2016, 14:46:46
True. But, perhaps most women benefit from polygamy, and most men benefit from monogamy?

George Bernard Shaw said, “The maternal instinct leads a woman to prefer a tenth share in a first rate man to the exclusive possession of a third rate one.”

However, when we bring monetary gain into the picture, it could be construed as "Prostitution", could it not?
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: mariomike on September 12, 2016, 15:23:37
However, when we bring monetary gain into the picture, it could be construed as "Prostitution", could it not?

Other than buying breakfast, Alpha males get it for free.  :)

For the others, "Chant your a$$ off kid, but, any _ _ _ _ _  you get in this world, you gonna have to pay for, one way or another."
The Last Detail.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: milnews.ca on September 12, 2016, 17:06:36
You can craft screening so it doesn't disadvantage or unfairly target specific groups of people ...
Like Roman Catholics opposing same-sex marriage or Orthodox Jews insisting on their women being covered wanting to move to Canada? (https://www.pressprogress.ca/video_kellie_leitch_wont_rule_out_a_ban_on_catholics_immigrating_to_canada)
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Altair on September 12, 2016, 17:09:52
Like Roman Catholics opposing same-sex marriage or Orthodox Jews insisting on their women being covered wanting to move to Canada? (https://www.pressprogress.ca/video_kellie_leitch_wont_rule_out_a_ban_on_catholics_immigrating_to_canada)
For some weird, unidentifiable reason, I doubt those groups are the target of this anti Canadian values talk.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: milnews.ca on September 12, 2016, 17:28:09
For some weird, unidentifiable reason, I doubt those groups are the target of this anti Canadian values talk.
Maybe, but if they answer the questions (of the day, anyway) incorrectly (no, I don't support same-sex marriage -- yes, my woman should be covered) = here's your hat, what's your hurry? #CollateralDamage
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Jarnhamar on September 12, 2016, 17:32:28
For some weird, unidentifiable reason, I doubt those groups are the target of this anti Canadian values talk.

Racism. That's why.  Nothing to do with the gratuitous amounts of violence being pumped out in the name of Islam everybday,  just  white Conservatives being racist that's all.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Altair on September 12, 2016, 17:37:24
Racism. That's why.  Nothing to do with the gratuitous amounts of violence being pumped out in the name of Islam everybday,  just  white Conservatives being racist that's all.
I don't think that's it, but if you believe that I feel bad for you.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Altair on September 12, 2016, 17:42:15
Maybe, but if they answer the questions (of the day, anyway) incorrectly (no, I don't support same-sex marriage -- yes, my woman should be covered) = here's your hat, what's your hurry?
Hahaha,  if that's the case I say go for it.

If other intolerant religious groups get sacked up in this dragnet all the better

I change my mind, I'm all for this. Go kellie.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Bird_Gunner45 on September 12, 2016, 18:01:22
Yup, but that must be a strawman
32,658 people killed by terrorists around the world in 2014

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3322308/Number-people-killed-terrorists-worldwide-soars-80-just-year.html#ixzz4K3mBA8Uq

Almost 33,000 in one year. That's the reported ones and only one years statistics. If you think that's insignificant, I'll have to agree with Puckchaser this time.  There's not a lot we can do about medical diseases, industrial accidents, etc. However, stopping the slaughter of, mostly innocents, is something we can do something about. The perpetrators need killing. And that goes for wherever they are found.

 ::) Stating you're being called a racist as an excuse to not have to justify your argument is foolish and is a strawman. I never said you were racist, I said I disagreed with you. I stated that the request to add more anti-values screening was thinly veiled xenophobia, as I believe it is since it serves no actual purpose but plays to people's base fears.

Since 2001, there have been 3380 US citizens killed by terrorists, including the 2990 killed on 9/11. The vast majority of the deaths, even stated in your article, are from Afghanistan, Iraq, and Nigeria, which makes sense since these nations are in open conflict against terrorist groups. Your numbers make no sense in a Canadian context, unless you are trying to demonstrate that there are many victims of terrorism who may want to come to Canada. In which case, we should continue to vet those people (since we do already) and allow entry to those who meet our standards (which we already do). Fun fact, if you read the two links there have been way more deaths attributed to good only fashion shooting deaths and toddlers. Throwing "terrorist" out is just a way of playing to peoples fears for your own gain (a la Donald Trump).

In the attached link, you'll see that terrorist attacks in Europe and the US are less frequent than in 1979. The majority of those attacks are from non-muslim groups, including the "Earth Liberation Front" which accounts for most of the attacks in Florida.

That is all to say that your number, while accurate, is disingenuous for Canada to say the least.

http://qz.com/558597/charted-terror-attacks-in-western-europe-from-the-1970s-to-now/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/04/16/eight-facts-about-terrorism-in-the-united-states

http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2015/oct/05/viral-image/fact-checking-comparison-gun-deaths-and-terrorism-/

http://www.snopes.com/toddlers-killed-americans-terrorists/

North America is by far the most secure area of the nation.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Bird_Gunner45 on September 12, 2016, 18:12:46
Looks like you are doing the name calling, but It doesn't bother me as long as you smile when you say it.  [:D

The whole world is racist. It has been forever.  The extent of racism is the issue.  Not one single person is without some bias.  It is how it is dealt with both individually and as a group that makes the difference.

I've been around a bit too and observed human nature at its best and worst.  Am I a tad emotional about this issue? You bet I am.  It upsets me considerably to see our Country being dragged down in to a cesspool due to people not speaking their mind or using any common sense.  It upsets me to see politicians of all stripes act dishonourably and suck in all sorts of useful idiots.

I have first hand experience with several of your 'enclaves' around the world and in Canada. I will take Canadian 'enclaves' any day before what we see now around the world.

You are a soldier. Stand up and help defend your country from obvious harmful individuals and / or cultural practises.

Name calling... sure. You said I was a radical islam apologist, but I'm the name caller. Back to grown up matters...

As for, "It upsets me considerably to see our Country being dragged down in to a cesspool due to people not speaking their mind or using any common sense.  It upsets me to see politicians of all stripes act dishonourably and suck in all sorts of useful idiots." This is why I am beginning to reconsider my lifelong record of voting conservative. Adding a "Canadian values list" is counter productive, gives ammo for actual terrorists to use, and doesn't even provide a useful defence against anyone coming into the country. If they want in they're just going to answer the questions how the system wants them to be answered. We have immigration and legal precedents and procedures in place to deal with all of these agendas.

Finally, your last bit. I'm actually deploying to Op IMPACT (not Kuwait) in the very very near future so lets get off of soap boxes. And I believe I am defending my country from harmful individuals and practices... I don't believe that spreading fear and placing additional restrictions on certain religions or people (lets be honest- this is aimed at muslims, clear and simple) is in line with Canadian values, and I believe that people like Leitsch put Canada at more risk since they fuel hate for Canada in the muslim world. The fact that it was brought up also seems to indicate that Mrs Leitsch doesn't actually understand how the immigration system works, since we already screen.

Some muslims are extremists and need to be screened out. The vast majority aren't. We have systems already in place for that, which, based on the fact that we've had no terrorist attacks from people born outside of Canada and rare instances of "barbaric cultural practices", would seem to be effective. Adding another pointless beaurocratic layer is stupid, full stop.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: PuckChaser on September 12, 2016, 18:49:11
Like Roman Catholics opposing same-sex marriage or Orthodox Jews insisting on their women being covered wanting to move to Canada? (https://www.pressprogress.ca/video_kellie_leitch_wont_rule_out_a_ban_on_catholics_immigrating_to_canada)
I don't mind the hijab, as long as the face is uncovered. By that logic, we should boot out the Amish. RCs oppose, but don't advocate stoning LGBT people. If they did, they shouldn't be welcome in Canada either.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: milnews.ca on September 12, 2016, 19:43:07
I don't mind the hijab, as long as the face is uncovered. By that logic, we should boot out the Amish. RCs oppose, but don't advocate stoning LGBT people. If they did, they shouldn't be welcome in Canada either.
But we'd be asking about values (beliefs), not potential behaviour - see how messy it gets?

Just saying that asking these kinds of questions about what people think could pull in all kinds of collateral damage we don't see right away.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: S.M.A. on September 12, 2016, 19:44:09
Ouch. I hope this isn't final.

Canadian Press (http://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/politics/peter-mackay-not-running-for-conservative-party-leader/ar-AAiNUXM?li=AAggFp5&ocid=ACERDHP15)

Quote
Peter MacKay not running for Conservative Party leader
Canadian Press

1 hour ago

OTTAWA - Former cabinet minister Peter MacKay says he will not run for the leadership of the Conservative party.

``After much soul-searching, advice from trusted friends and weighing of the impact on my young family, I have decided not to seek the leadership of the party,'' the former cabinet minister from Nova Scotia said in a statement Monday.

``My family is my No. 1 priority,'' said MacKay, who has two small children, Kian, 3 and Valentia, 11 months, with his wife, human rights activist Nazanin Afshin-Jam.

``While the opportunity is exciting and the reward compelling, I feel it would be asking too much of them to jump back into politics right now and the heat of a leadership campaign with all that it entails,'' said MacKay, 50, who did not seek re-election in 2015 and is now a partner at a Toronto law firm.

(...SNIPPED)
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: PuckChaser on September 12, 2016, 19:59:26
But we'd be asking about values (beliefs), not potential behaviour - see how messy it gets?

Just saying that asking these kinds of questions about what people think could pull in all kinds of collateral damage we don't see right away.
We've got about 10 pages on a simple survey question, with people assuming all sorts of things. I think we should wait and let Leitch explain how she wants to do go about this, instead of trotting out the racism card (definitely not directed at you). There's a million ways to skin this, some are wrong, others could make this a better country to live in for our kids.

We have psychologists weeding out unstable people from LEO/CAF jobs using personality profiles. Is that racist, or making sure the right people are compatible with the environment they want to go to?
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: milnews.ca on September 12, 2016, 20:12:33
We've got about 10 pages on a simple survey question, with people assuming all sorts of things. I think we should wait and let Leitch explain how she wants to do go about this, instead of trotting out the racism card (definitely not directed at you). There's a million ways to skin this, some are wrong, others could make this a better country to live in for our kids.
Even though all we have so far is what's been written down, fair enough.  I do look forward to hearing more from Leitch on this, even if I'm still leery about the principle of governments screening folks based on what they think/believe.

We have psychologists weeding out unstable people from LEO/CAF jobs using personality profiles. Is that racist, or making sure the right people are compatible with the environment they want to go to?
Maybe THAT's more of something closer to what might be considered, given that (with some caveats) psych/personality testing may spot instability, which may be more worrisome than beliefs.  Then again, we'd also have to be careful with that, given psychiatry's history with some governments (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_abuse_of_psychiatry_in_the_Soviet_Union).
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: PuckChaser on September 12, 2016, 20:22:26
Maybe THAT's more of something closer to what might be considered, given that (with some caveats) psych/personality testing may spot instability, which may be more worrisome than beliefs.  Then again, we'd also have to be careful with that, given psychiatry's history with some governments (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_abuse_of_psychiatry_in_the_Soviet_Union).

Could use this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minnesota_Multiphasic_Personality_Inventory (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minnesota_Multiphasic_Personality_Inventory)

While painful to complete, various agencies use it to weed out unstable people. Non-popular beliefs aren't a bad thing if that individual doesn't hold violent or oppressive personality traits. No test is perfect, but if it keeps one terrorist/child abuser/spousal abuser out of the country (or from doing harm here), then do we not owe it to our population to do all we can to protect them?
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: jollyjacktar on September 12, 2016, 20:23:03
One of the retired Chiefs at work has a nephew at St Jean.  Lots of headaches with the quality of recruits coming through.  One of them even has Tourette's, that must be interesting to say the least.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: milnews.ca on September 12, 2016, 20:30:05
... Non-popular beliefs aren't a bad thing if that individual doesn't hold violent or oppressive personality traits ...
If you disagree with x, but not f**k people over or break the law because they're x, maybe, indeed.
... if it keeps one terrorist/child abuser/spousal abuser out of the country (or from doing harm here), then do we not owe it to our population to do all we can to protect them?
Careful - some folks might not like that approach for the same reason they don't like it for gun control  ;D
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: George Wallace on September 12, 2016, 20:31:18
One of the retired Chiefs at work has a nephew at St Jean.  Lots of headaches with the quality of recruits coming through.  One of them even has Tourette's, that must be interesting to say the least.

Well.....It will not be the first time that we have had pers who have had "speech impediments"......and some of them holding high ranking positions....... [:D
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: PuckChaser on September 12, 2016, 20:32:53
If you disagree with x, but not f**k people over or break the law because they're x, maybe, indeed.Careful - some folks might not like that approach for the same reason they don't like it for gun control  ;D

Could apply the same thing to alcohol, cars, skydiving...
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Jed on September 12, 2016, 20:40:17
Name calling... sure. You said I was a radical islam apologist, but I'm the name caller. Back to grown up matters...

As for, "It upsets me considerably to see our Country being dragged down in to a cesspool due to people not speaking their mind or using any common sense.  It upsets me to see politicians of all stripes act dishonourably and suck in all sorts of useful idiots." This is why I am beginning to reconsider my lifelong record of voting conservative. Adding a "Canadian values list" is counter productive, gives ammo for actual terrorists to use, and doesn't even provide a useful defence against anyone coming into the country. If they want in they're just going to answer the questions how the system wants them to be answered. We have immigration and legal precedents and procedures in place to deal with all of these agendas.

Finally, your last bit. I'm actually deploying to Op IMPACT (not Kuwait) in the very very near future so lets get off of soap boxes. And I believe I am defending my country from harmful individuals and practices... I don't believe that spreading fear and placing additional restrictions on certain religions or people (lets be honest- this is aimed at muslims, clear and simple) is in line with Canadian values, and I believe that people like Leitsch put Canada at more risk since they fuel hate for Canada in the muslim world. The fact that it was brought up also seems to indicate that Mrs Leitsch doesn't actually understand how the immigration system works, since we already screen.

Some muslims are extremists and need to be screened out. The vast majority aren't. We have systems already in place for that, which, based on the fact that we've had no terrorist attacks from people born outside of Canada and rare instances of "barbaric cultural practices", would seem to be effective. Adding another pointless beaurocratic layer is stupid, full stop.

Point 1. I did not say you were a radical Islam apologist.  I said " You were sounding like an extremist Muslim apologist"  There is a difference.  I meant no offence by my words, so sorry about that.  I am tired of this axis of approach that seems to come from every Main Stream Media outlet and left leaning journalist.

Point 2.  I disagree with this approach. I view it as appeasement; which I vehemently disagree with.

Point 3. I have no axe to grind with other peoples cultures and religions until it starts to impact people I care about. I have many  Muslim friends, and Jewish friends, and Atheist friends.  I feel that I try to be open and honest with all but I don't generally  pick verbal fights. It is easier when you have mutual trust and respect built up over the years.

Point 4.  Not much additional bureaucracy is required to state your Country's case to incoming peoples and at least it gives incoming folks fair warning.   Sure they most likely will just say what they want you to hear but at least someone would be able to remind them  of what is right and wrong if and when things go pear shaped.


Good for you going on a deployment, I'm sure it will be good for you and those you work with.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Good2Golf on September 13, 2016, 09:42:32
As much as I'd like to see MacKay in 2019, he's smart to consider the next round.  I'd be paying attention to my young family too.  Good on him for putting them first at such a critical point in their life.

G2G
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Lightguns on September 13, 2016, 09:55:54
As much as I'd like to see MacKay in 2019, he's smart to consider the next round.  I'd be paying attention to my young family too.  Good on him for putting them first at such a critical point in their life.

G2G

My thinking is that he feels the cons cannot win in 2019 and he is waiting for the sure win. 
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Halifax Tar on September 13, 2016, 10:15:09
My thinking is that he feels the cons cannot win in 2019 and he is waiting for the sure win.

Agreed I would say he runs in the election after 2015.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Good2Golf on September 13, 2016, 10:17:58
My thinking is that he feels the cons cannot win in 2019 and he is waiting for the sure win.

That is probably also true, and pragmatically (and as a rugby player thinking that maybe the LPC for now is like the All Blacks), it makes sense, but I do believe that, that notwithstanding, he very much wants to have his privacy with his family for the next 4-6 years.  :nod:
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Jarnhamar on September 13, 2016, 12:40:00
Quote from: Jed

Point 3. I have no axe to grind with other peoples cultures and religions until it starts to impact people I care about. I have many  Muslim friends, and Jewish friends, and Atheist friends.  I feel that I try to be open and honest with all but I don't generally  pick verbal fights. It is easier when you have mutual trust and respect built up over the years.

It's fun for people to bring up the Crusades and a dozen other historical examples of cases where non-islamic radicals were assholes but unless it's something happening in the last 10 or 20 years it's not really relevant to the state of the worlds security TODAY.

Romans were assholes, who cares, I'm worried about my family today and it's not the Romans who are going to blow up markets or attack me for saying hello to someone.   


Quote
Point 4.  Not much additional bureaucracy is required to state your Country's case to incoming peoples and at least it gives incoming folks fair warning.   Sure they most likely will just say what they want you to hear but at least someone would be able to remind them  of what is right and wrong if and when things go pear shaped.


The new Canada.
Trudeau salutes the “sisters upstairs” at gender segregated mosque
 http://www.speakingnews.net/trudeau-salutes-the-sisters-upstairs-at-gender-segregated-mosque-the-rebel
Quote
Justin Trudeau skipped any 9/11 memorials marking the 15th anniversary of the horrific terrorist attacks that killed thousands of people including twenty-six Canadians but on September 12th he was at the Ottawa Mosque to celebrate the end of the Hajj, the annual pilgrimage to Mecca.

While there, he spoke about Canadian values, including equality, even as men and women were completely segregated inside the mosque with men on the main floor, women upstairs, something Trudeau even alluded to.

He smiled as he saluted the “sisters upstairs” — isn’t this a man who celebrated having an equal number of men and women in his cabinet?
- See more at: http://www.speakingnews.net/trudeau-salutes-the-sisters-upstairs-at-gender-segregated-mosque-the-rebel#sthash.SxKbGyRX.dpuf

Maybe we should be careful what we wish for when we start talking about "Canadian values" if they're anything like our leaders.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: milnews.ca on September 13, 2016, 13:01:15
Maybe we should be careful what we wish for when we start talking about "Canadian values" if they're anything like our leaders.
You see how everyone likes values being tested when it's values they agree with, but not so much if it's values they don't like?  ;)
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Jed on September 13, 2016, 13:47:48
Well, I am not really a 'dyed in the wool' any specific party type of person. My voting allegiance can, and has been changed throughout my 40 plus years  of casting a vote. 

Today, however; there is no way that I could envisage casting a vote for the Federal Liberal Party under the tutelage of JT Jr. and the backroom elites pulling his strings.

I predict this leadership team is going to pull our great Country apart just as disastrously as the Democrats under the Obama team have pulled apart our staunchest Allie, the USA. (Too be fair it is not solely the Democrat team's fault but they seem to specialize in divisive Red Herring  tactics with respect to Occupy  ___ movements,  BLM,  lack of support for the Laws of the Land, Police officers and the Military).

If JT Jr. and the backroom elites continue in this vein, imitating Democrat Party processes, it won't be long before the specter of Western Separation or Quebec Separation issues are back on the table. The Country I'm sure can weather 4 years of this inane administration but I'm not sure if it could take 8 years, ala the Obama administration to the south of us.

With that said, I believe it is imperative that the Conservative Party find an honourable, principled and effective Leader to lead the fight against this current disastrous leadership that our Country currently has sooner than later.  A second Liberal majority will deeply fracture our Country.

Needless to say, this is my personal opinion, for what it is worth.

Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Lightguns on September 13, 2016, 14:06:37
That is probably also true, and pragmatically (and as a rugby player thinking that maybe the LPC for now is like the All Blacks), it makes sense, but I do believe that, that notwithstanding, he very much wants to have his privacy with his family for the next 4-6 years.  :nod:

He is a progressive, this is how progressives see the world.  Example; the latest progressive entertainment is a movie about Nat Turner's Slave Revolt, it fails to even mention one of the 31 white children hacked to death by Nat and boys but shows the a "Glory" of the freedom fighters and the greed on white soldiers hunting the poor freedom fighters down.  Ameristan is balkanizing and becoming the very banana republics that it once despised but so are we.  Progressives are a cancer on the nation. 
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: mariomike on September 13, 2016, 14:50:06
Sep 13, 2016

"The announcement on Tuesday followed speculation on social media that the former Toronto city councillor would declare his intention to join the race for the federal Conservative party leadership."
http://www.680news.com/2016/09/13/no-one-going-untouched-doug-ford-tell-book/

Doug had this to say about that, today,
https://www.instagram.com/p/BKTK-fmA7Nq/

Canada's "Trump Lite"?

Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Thucydides on September 13, 2016, 16:38:32
Sep 13, 2016

"The announcement on Tuesday followed speculation on social media that the former Toronto city councillor would declare his intention to join the race for the federal Conservative party leadership."
http://www.680news.com/2016/09/13/no-one-going-untouched-doug-ford-tell-book/

Doug had this to say about that, today,
https://www.instagram.com/p/BKTK-fmA7Nq/

Canada's "Trump Lite"?

The conditions for a Trump or Marnie Le Pen are out there in Canada. It is much like those forests which were aggressively managed for 50 years to prevent forest fires; they are full of dead branches and other tinder which fuels much greater fires than would have happened otherwise. Because our particular conditions are different from France or the United States, the particulars of a "Canadian Trump" will also be different (I personally would expect someone with more business/media connections like Kevin O'Leary), but don't doubt it will come.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: mariomike on September 15, 2016, 19:26:12
For any Ford Nation "folks" who could not make Ford Fest 2016, a few highlights,

Doug "Future Premier Canada", Randy ( black cowboy hat ) Renata, Doug Ford the Third ( That's weird...better not go there. ), Mike Stirpe  Ford ( always sounds like he's on Helium ), no sign of Kathy - no surprise, Kenny Neville, Penny M., Councillor Mammoliti, Mr. Cho said a few kind words, etc... What a crowd!
https://vimeo.com/182252449

Penny M., "John Tory was like ISIS coming to Toronto."
https://vimeo.com/110287800

Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: milnews.ca on September 23, 2016, 09:11:56
Another name into the growing leadership stew pot (http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/chris-alexander-conservative-leadership-1.3775439)?
Quote
Former immigration minister Chris Alexander is expected to join the race for the federal Conservative leadership.

A source with close knowledge of the race confirms Alexander is gathering the necessary signatures and financial support and building a team for a run.

The source says his campaign is expected to focus on foreign policy and the economy ...
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: milnews.ca on October 13, 2016, 07:29:25
The latest:  Tony Clement drops out (http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/tony-clement-dropping-out-1.3801305) ...
Quote
Conservative leadership contender Tony Clement is dropping out of the race to replace Stephen Harper.

The Ontario MP said his campaign didn't raise enough money to meet the "financial realities of this race."

"I set for myself a series of benchmarks that I believed were necessary to achieve, by the fall, to ensure I had a viable chance of success," he said in a note to campaign supporters. "Unfortunately, we did not achieve those milestones to my satisfaction." ...
... while Chris Alexander (pretty much) confirms he's in (http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/chris-alexander-announces-tory-leadership-bid-wants-canada-to-boost-immigration-to-400000-a-year):
Quote
Former immigration minister Chris Alexander has confirmed he plans to run for the Conservative leadership and that a key plank of his campaign will be a proposal to sharply increase the intake of immigrants to 400,000 every year, including 40,000 refugees, because “this is a core value for me and for Canada.”

Although not yet officially a candidate, the McGill and Oxford graduate said the paperwork would be completed within the next week or two. After that he intends to undertake a cross-country journey by car to the West Coast, “stopping in every place we can where we have an invitation, to speak with groups, large and small, of Conservatives and potential Conservatives.”

Alexander expressed concern about leadership hopeful Kelly Leitch’s controversial proposal to vet prospective immigrants and reject them if they did not share “Canadian values.” ...
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: ballz on October 15, 2016, 09:31:10
Well that changes things, but the day before that news, this poll had Maxime Bernier out front with Tony Clement slightly behind. Maxime Bernier was the 1st or 2nd choice for 22% of people.

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/10/12/federal-conservative-leadership-race-wide-open-poll-suggests.html

Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: milnews.ca on October 17, 2016, 07:50:36
It's official official now (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/leitch-campaign-launch-1.3807187) ...
Quote
Ontario MP Kellie Leitch officially launched her campaign to become the next federal Conservative Party leader on Saturday, continuing to talk about the importance of what she terms Canadian values. 

Leitch made the announcement in Collingwood, Ont., which is in her Simcoe-Grey riding ...
... while the Tories juggle critic positions (http://media.conservative.ca/en/news-releases/ambrose-announces-changes-to-the-shadow-cabinet) as hats get thrown into the ring:
Quote
Rona Ambrose, Leader of the Official Opposition and Interim Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, (Sunday) announced changes to the Shadow Cabinet.

“The race for the leadership of the Conservative Party is growing, both in the number of candidates, and in excitement about their ideas for the future of our party and our country. Recently, a number of Shadow Cabinet members have stepped away from their critic roles to join this historic contest. I want to wish Steven Blaney, Erin O’Toole and Lisa Raitt the best of luck as they pursue this next step, and I thank them for their service to our Caucus and Shadow Cabinet since November of last year. I also want to welcome back Tony Clement to the Shadow Cabinet, and thank him for his willingness to serve.”

“As well, I want to thank Members of Parliament John Brassard, Alupa Clarke, Gerard Deltell, Phil McColeman, Pierre Poilievre and Alain Rayes for agreeing to serve in new roles in the Shadow Cabinet. I look forward to working with them and the entire Caucus to hold this Liberal government to account over the coming days and weeks.”
New "who's critic of what?" list attached.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: milnews.ca on October 24, 2016, 17:57:31
Bracketing fire around the base (https://ca.news.yahoo.com/steven-blaney-kicks-off-conservative-154550626.html)?
Quote
Quebec MP Steven Blaney is running for leadership of the Conservative Party, and his first major policy position is a ban on the niqab and a promise to invoke the notwithstanding clause if courts strike down his new measures.

The former minister in the cabinet of Stephen Harper said he will introduce legislation that would forbid the Islamic face-covering while voting and taking the oath of citizenship. He also said that the prohibition would extend to people working in the federal public service.

"We are a country that is built on immigration, but we have to be sure that those new Canadians we welcome are understanding of how we live. We don't want our country to become like the country they left," Blaney told reporters Monday. "We fully welcome you, but we want you to respect who we are."

The measures are necessary, Blaney said, to "ensure the sustainability of our integration model" and to protect women's rights.

The proposal revives a controversial debate from the last campaign, when Harper himself suggested the niqab should be banned from the public service.

His party enacted policies to prevent women from wearing a niqab while taking the citizenship oath, and promised to create a "barbaric cultural practices" tip line. Those two proposals led some to accuse the party of engaging in identity politics and fuelling anti-Muslim sentiment.

Zunera Ishaq, a Muslim woman, went to court to challenge the government's ban, and, in the middle of the campaign, the Federal Court of Appeal cleared the way for her to wear the headcovering.

Blaney said he'd use Section 33 of the Charter of Rights and Freedoms, which gives Parliament little-used override powers, to block the likes of Ishaq from the ceremony despite the court's ruling ...
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: milnews.ca on November 04, 2016, 07:57:10
A couple of updates:
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: milnews.ca on November 14, 2016, 13:57:15
Well, so much for "the motive hasn't been determined yet" (http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/kellie-leitch-break-in) ...
Quote
The Kellie Leitch campaign is taking steps to be certain of the safety of the Conservative Party leadership candidate after a weekend incident at her home prompted calls to police.

The Ontario Provincial Police visited Leitch’s home near Creemore, Ont., on Friday and twice early Saturday morning after what Leitch believed was an after-midnight break-in to her garage, an event that came hours after what she described as threatening online activity.

Leitch said in a statement issued Sunday night that an individual offered her home address “online to anyone who was interested in doing me harm.”

She said she reported this to the OPP and met with police officers at her home late Friday evening.

Then, Leitch said, just before 2 a.m. on Saturday, her home alarm sounded.

(...)

“Appropriate measures are being taken,” Leitch campaign manager Nick Kouvalis said in a telephone interview Sunday.

“Kellie’s not going to back down and she’s not going to wilt at threats. This is how the left operates and we know that.” ...
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: milnews.ca on December 05, 2016, 10:56:30
"Feed the base, feed the base!" (http://www.macleans.ca/politics/chris-alexander-gives-speech-as-ralliers-chant-lock-her-up-referring-to-rachel-notley/) - highlights mine ...
Quote
Federal Conservative leadership hopeful Chris Alexander says he didn’t stop a crowd calling for Alberta Premier Rachel Notley to be locked up because politicians need to listen to constituents.

The former immigration minister was speaking at a rally against the provincial NDPs’ planned carbon tax Saturday when protesters began the “Lock her up” chant popularized during president-elect Donald Trump’s campaign.

“I totally disapprove of that particular chant. I don’t think it’s fair. I don’t think it’s the right thing to say at a rally or elsewhere, and that’s why I didn’t join it,” Alexander said Sunday.

The Edmonton rally was organized by Rebel Media, an online news and right-wing opinion outlet, and video of the incident was posted on Twitter by the website’s Alberta bureau chief Sheila Gunn Reid.

The video shows the ralliers start by chanting “Vote her out,” but as they grow louder, the message changes.

As they chant “Lock her up,” Alexander smiles and appears to gesture in time with the chant, nodding along.

Someone can be heard shouting, “That’s enough! That’s enough!” in the background, and as Alexander smiles and nods, the camera turns to face the crowd.

At no point in the video does Alexander stop the protesters or say anything about their chant.

“You don’t pick it up in the video, but I started to say the words in time with them, ‘Vote her out,’ and then the next point I made was about the ballot box,” he said. “I expressed my disapproval by talking about something completely different: voting. I think that was pretty clear.”

He said he thinks the chants came from a place of pain ...
Gotta remember that if I hear something I disagree with - my changing the subject will show my disagreement ...
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Chris Pook on December 05, 2016, 11:45:02
"Feed the base, feed the base!" (http://www.macleans.ca/politics/chris-alexander-gives-speech-as-ralliers-chant-lock-her-up-referring-to-rachel-notley/) - highlights mine ...Gotta remember that if I hear something I disagree with - my changing the subject will show my disagreement ...

Yep.  In fact many people do that.  It is an avoidance mechanism.  I have sat in many rooms and heard many idiots spout off and not said a word.   And changed the subject.... 

Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: milnews.ca on December 05, 2016, 17:37:40
Meanwhile, the Council of European Canadians has picked its horse - for now, anyway (http://www.eurocanadian.ca/2016/12/kellie-leitch-alt-right-candidate-of-canada.html) -- shared under the Fair Dealing provisions (http://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/c-42/page-9.html#h-26) of the Copyright Act (R.S.C., 1985, c. C-42) (http://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/c-42/index.html) ...
Quote
Immigration reformers, social conservatives and ethnic nationalists have been emboldened by Donald Trump's win in the United States, but we're still very much a target for politicians, the media, big business and academia here in Canada. Having an historic change next door doesn't insulate us from being carpet bombed by Social Justice Warriors, Cultural Marxists, Islamophiles, Immigration advocates or Big Business.

Indeed, if a political candidate with even some of our views dares to stick his or her head above ground, he or she is immediately attacked as a racist, fascist or worse.

Now think what I just said. Our opponents go completely bat-**** crazy when some politician says some otherwise common sense thing opponents take to be the thin edge of the racial awakening of ordinary Canadians. It's as if they have their antenna out for even a whiff of ethnic nationalism in order to stamp it out.

I know why they're so anxious; why they're so afraid. They know in their guts ethnic awakening will sweep the nation once a spark can keep burning despite the hailstorm of abuse. They're right to be afraid because the entire Canadian multiculturalism edifice is built on a false premise; that family, ethnicity and race doesn't matter. In the end, biology will come back to bite Progressives as it has done everywhere in the world where Progressives and Communists (but I repeat myself) have tried to ignore it.

That's down the road; the eventual collapse of multiculturalism is the light at the end of the tunnel.

For the moment we can use these attacks for our own purposes. We can turn Social Justice Warriors into scent hounds to sniff out the people and policies we should support. They, misguided and short-sighted as they are, can show us exactly where our efforts should be concentrated. They can identify which politician we should support and vote for.

Right now all the hounds are pointing at Kellie Leitch, the M.P. for Simcoe-Grey, and candidate for the leadership of the Conservative Party of Canada. They hate her because she has called for screening all visitors, refugees and immigrants for Canadian Values.

Why is that a bad thing you ask? Because it would effectively eliminate true believers in Islam who, according to the Koran, do not believe in Canadian civic, legal or moral values. It would also screen out Islamist terrorists who pray to Allah when committing their crimes. In other words, it would put a pause on Muslim immigration very similar to the new policy in the United States. And yes, Progressives hate her for it.

Kellie Leitch is eminently qualified to be the Conservative Leader, having previously been Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Human Resources and Skills Development, and Minister of Labour and Minister for the Status of Women. She is Catholic, pro-life and a pediatric surgeon (being the latter is why she is the former). That's another reason Progressives don't like her; they don't mind Syrian women with five children but native Canadians, no way.

As I write this, Dr. Leitch has come out in favour of letting Canadians carry pepper spray for personal defence. There'll be outrage over that too. Progressives believe the Police should protect you, and if they aren't there when you're attacked, too bad.

Does this mean Kellie Leitch is the perfect candidate, no. And it doesn't mean she won't be pushed off message, or off policies in the future. Indeed, nothing in politics is guaranteed. However, as long as the Left is attacking her, as long as she's being vilified by Progressives, we know she's on the right track.

For this, for now, she deserves our support.
A bit about the Council (http://www.eurocanadian.ca/p/mission-statement.html) ...
Quote
European Canadians make up three-quarters of the Canadian population but there has been no group advocating our interests in the national dialogue.

The rise of special interest groups from other cultures and regions, and growing attacks on European concepts of law, liberty, economics and identity, now require a response.

The Council of European Canadians is a group of public-minded individuals who believe the European heritage and character of Canada should be maintained and enhanced.

Public participation is welcomed.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Blackadder1916 on December 05, 2016, 20:05:53
Meanwhile, the Council of European Canadians has picked its horse - for now, anyway (http://www.eurocanadian.ca/2016/12/kellie-leitch-alt-right-candidate-of-canada.html)  . . .

A bit about the Council (http://www.eurocanadian.ca/p/mission-statement.html)

Quote
European Canadians make up three-quarters of the Canadian population . . .

Okay, so this council portrays itself as a voice for Canadians of "European" descent.  Maybe perceptions have changed in the more than half century since I've been aware of my heritage, but back then those of us whose ancestors emigrated from the British Isles and Ireland did not consider ourselves of European descent, we were Irish, English, Scottish, Welsh or (if stuck-up) British.  Europeans were a lesser form, allies some or the former enemy, friendly in most cases and generally nothing wrong with them but lesser all the same.  I'm not sure that I would consider being lumped in with them that appealing.

Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Chris Pook on December 05, 2016, 20:12:14


Okay, so this council portrays itself as a voice for Canadians of "European" descent.  Maybe perceptions have changed in the more than half century since I've been aware of my heritage, but back then those of us whose ancestors emigrated from the British Isles and Ireland did not consider ourselves of European descent, we were Irish, English, Scottish, Welsh or (if stuck-up) British.  Europeans were a lesser form, allies some or the former enemy, friendly in most cases and generally nothing wrong with them but lesser all the same.  I'm not sure that I would consider being lumped in with them that appealing.

 :cheers:

No discrimination beyond the Channel.   [:D
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: milnews.ca on December 05, 2016, 20:28:29
"Wogs start at Calais" is such a harsh phrase, right?  >:D
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: ballz on December 05, 2016, 20:33:13
Meanwhile, while Kellie Leitch tries her best to rob the spotlight, my hope is that Maxime actually continues to have the most support...

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-conservative-leadership-donors-1.3876575
Quote
Maxime Bernier's donor base is bigger and broader than Kellie Leitch's
Quebec MP's distribution of donors gives him edge over Conservative leadership rivals

The most recent set of fundraising data for the Conservative leadership race put Kellie Leitch narrowly ahead of Maxime Bernier in total dollars raised. But an analysis of where these contributions came from suggests Bernier has a bigger and broader base of national support within the party — and that puts him in a much better position to win than Leitch.

Between April 1 and Sept. 30, the latest data available from Elections Canada, Leitch raised $450,421.56, a little more than Bernier's $427,508.72. Ontario MP Michael Chong raised $208,913.72, while Alberta MP Deepak Obhrai raised $1,100.

The other 10 contestants either launched their campaigns after Sept. 30 or had no contributions to report prior to that date.

Taking into account individuals who made multiple contributions and counting them only once, Bernier raised his money from 1,788 individual contributors, compared to 1,049 for Leitch, 370 for Chong and two for Obhrai. In other words, Bernier received money from 56 per cent of all donors to the race in this period, compared to 33 per cent for Leitch and 11.5 per cent for Chong.

Broad base for Bernier

But over and above Bernier's advantage in the number of donors, he has a superior regional distribution of that support than does either Leitch or Chong.

And that's a decisive factor in the Conservative leadership race.

​The rules of the Conservative voting system award equal weight to all 338 of Canada's ridings, meaning a riding in Quebec with 100 members is worth as much as a riding in Alberta with 1,000 members. This makes support in every part of the country essential for any leadership hopeful.

According to a CBC analysis of the postal codes of each individual donor, Bernier's support in the second and third quarters of 2016 was broad, with 38 per cent of his donors coming from Ontario, 21 per cent from Alberta, 16 per cent from B.C. and 15 per cent from Quebec.

Leitch, the Ontario candidate?

The data shows Leitch's donor base was largely limited to Ontario — and only a few parts of Ontario at that.

Fully two-thirds of Leitch's donors call Ontario home. In fact, a quarter of them came from central Ontario, where the MP's seat is located. Another 20 per cent of her donor base was in Toronto. In terms of dollars raised, three-quarters came from Ontario, and three-fifths from central Ontario and Toronto alone.

Another 13 per cent of her donors were in Alberta and 10 per cent in B.C. Just two per cent of Leitch's donors were in Quebec, which will be worth 23 per cent of all points awarded in the party's voting system.

Chong received the bulk of his donations from Ontario. Just over four-fifths of his donors were Ontarians, and 87 per cent of dollars raised came from Chong's home province.

Like Leitch, just two per cent of his donors were Quebecers.

Bernier beats Leitch, Chong in most regions

While Bernier's donor base was broader than that of Leitch or Chong, it was also bigger in almost every region of the country.

Bernier received donations from 59 per cent of donors in Atlantic Canada, beating out Leitch's 35 per cent and Chong's six per cent.

In Quebec, Bernier dominated with a 90 per cent share of donors. Leitch, with seven per cent, lagged well behind. Bernier had 95 per cent of donors in eastern Quebec, 93 per cent in western and northern Quebec, and 83 per cent in and around Montreal. That was the strongest region in the province for Leitch and Chong, who claimed nine and eight per cent of donors there, respectively.

Leitch narrowly beat out Bernier in Ontario, with 42 per cent of contributors to his 40 per cent. Chong was in third there, with 18 per cent.

Bernier performed better than Leitch in eastern and northern Ontario, where he had 64 per cent of donors, but trailed in the rest of the province. Toronto was Leitch's strongest region, with 47 per cent of donors to 33 per cent for Bernier and 20 per cent for Chong.

Bernier, the contestant some labelled the "Quebec candidate," also took the greatest share of donations in Western Canada. He got the nod from 65 per cent of donors in the Prairies and 71 per cent of donors in Alberta, including 74 per cent in Calgary. And in B.C., Bernier had the support of 68 per cent of donors, compared to 24 per cent for Leitch.

Impact of Bernier's better distribution

These regional leads have a big impact. Bernier's national edge over Leitch in share of donors — 23 points — increases to 33 points when weighted by province to take into account the party's leadership voting rules.

But while Leitch trailed in total donors, she raised more money than Bernier. She raised 41 per cent of all money donated to leadership contestants, compared to 39 per cent for Bernier and 19 per cent for Chong. But if these dollars are weighted by province, Bernier's share increases to 52 per cent, compared to 34 per cent for Leitch and just 14 per cent for Chong.

If donors and dollars are reflective of a contestant's support, those are big numbers for Bernier.

Still, we won't know how Bernier's support base compares to the entire field of contestants until after the next quarter's financial reports are published early next year.

But after the first six months of the race, the MP from Beauce has positioned himself as a serious contender from coast to coast.

So...

90% of all Quebec donors, 71% of all the donors from Alberta, 68% of all the donors from BC, 82% of donors in the North, 65% of donors in the prairies, and 59% of donors in Atlantic Canada donated to Maxime. In Ontario, the home province for Kellie Leitch and Michael Chong, 40% of donors gave to Maxime.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Chris Pook on December 06, 2016, 03:44:22
"Wogs start at Calais" is such a harsh phrase, right?  >:D

We do try to adjust with the times.   [:D
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: milnews.ca on December 18, 2016, 10:58:45
Really (http://www.torontosun.com/2016/12/17/kevin-olearys-comments-get-negative-reaction-from-tory-leadership-contenders)?  Oh, my ...
Quote
Reality TV star and businessman Kevin O’Leary landed in hot water Saturday over remarks he made about warriors and peacekeepers on an Ottawa radio show.

In a Friday segment on Ottawa radio station CFRA about Canadian options for helping Syria, O’Leary stressed that Canada is known for its peacekeeping.

“Canadians are known as peacekeepers above all – there’s nothing proud about being a warrior,” he told the show. “War is a desperate outcome as a human being. Peacekeeping is extremely noble.”

He suggested once Syria has stabilized, Canada should send peacekeepers.

“I think it’s going to be sometime in the next six months, we should offer our services as Canadian peacekeepers,” he said ...
A bit more (https://ipolitics.ca/2016/12/17/olearys-military-comments-disturbing-otoole-says/) ...
Quote
Conservative leadership hopeful and veteran Erin O’Toole has condemned comments made by “reality TV star and American resident” Kevin O’Leary about Canada’s military, calling them “disturbing” and insulting to all Canadian veterans.

Speaking during an interview on CFRA on Friday, O’Leary, a potential Conservative leadership candidate, said “there’s nothing proud about being a warrior.”

Canada should deploy peacekeepers to Syria within the next six months O’Leary said. And in the future, Canada’s military should only deploy peacekeepers, he said.

“Canadians are known as peacekeepers above all and not warriors. There’s nothing proud about being a warrior, war is a desperate outcome for a human being, peacekeeping is extremely noble.”

Those comments riled O’Toole, who said they were disrespectful to veterans.

“I am proud of all of those that risked and gave their lives for our rights and freedoms,” O’Toole said in a statement.

“I am proud to have served in the Canadian Armed Forces myself, and I am proud to live in a country with a strong record of military success against foes who wished to harm us.”

O’Toole said he finds O’Leary’s comments “disturbing” as a veteran, and “concerning” as a Conservative ...
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Journeyman on December 18, 2016, 11:08:07
O’Toole said he finds O’Leary’s comments “disturbing” as a veteran, and “concerning” as a Conservative ...
....and  delusional, if he actually believes Syria will be stable any time within the next six months.  :stars:
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: daftandbarmy on December 18, 2016, 11:16:52
I'm pretty sure that the next Canadian Conservative Leader will be Trump:

Conrad Black: Donald Trump understands America in ways smug Canadians can’t

A pandemic of denial over the incoming president of the United States grips his Democratic opponents, and, like most American fads and traits, is as strong in Canada as anywhere. It is now five weeks since the election, and we have watched an unprecedentedly asinine sequence of delusional activities to cushion the conventional wisdom from the impact of the result. There was the recount, where the Green candidate, who garnered one per cent of the vote in the presidential election, rounded up over five million dollars from the Democrats to challenge the returns, where in Wisconsin approximately one vote was reduced from Trump’s margin of victory for every million dollars squandered in the recount. Even Jeb Bush, who spent over $200 million to garner seven per cent of the vote in Florida, where he had been a popular and  successful governor, achieved more with his backers’ money (while Donald Trump paid for his own nomination campaign and made almost as much from the sale of trinkets and t-shirts and silly hats to pay for his big sweep).
There were, we were darkly assured, going to be deep fissures and mortal wounds in the Republican Party. Party chairman Reince Priebus, at daggers’ drawn with the candidate, we were assured, will be his chief of staff. The previous presidential nominee, Mitt Romney, an irreconcilable opponent, recanted everything during his lengthy but unsuccessful audition for secretary of state. The president-elect named the wife of the Senate majority Leader, Mr. McConnell of Kentucky, who nine months ago had written Congressional colleagues that they would “drop (Trump) like a hot rock,” to his cabinet, to administer the renovation of decayed American infrastructure. Speaker Paul Ryan, who had scampered into the tall grass like a garter snake when the 11-year old Billy Bush tape was thrown into the hopper by the Clinton campaign, is beavering away with the Trump entourage to design and strategize the cyclonic legislative program that Trump has promised.
As there had never been any possible argument for the re-election of the Obama-Clinton Democrats, unlike the Eisenhower-Nixon Republicans in 1960, the Kennedy-Johnson Democrats in 1968, the Nixon-Ford Republicans in 1976, and the Clinton-Gore Democrats in 2000, all of whom lost their bid for a third term by a hair’s breadth (and it will never be known who really won the 1960 and 2000 elections), the entire Clinton campaign was a stentorian smear job on Trump, as, pre-eminently, a racist and a sexist. This has evaporated with his selection of high office-holders and his own general conduct. The whole Clinton campaign, in a phrase of Thornton Wilder, was “written on running water, written on air,” and it is a mnemonic and disagreeable feat to remember any of it.
Contrary to the wails of apprehension from the universal alarmist consensus, the transition process has been handled very smoothly and has produced widely admired candidates to fill the great offices of the United States government. The utter chaos that was predicted and expected to produce Don “Only in America” King as secretary of state and a particularly submissive and bosomy Miss Universe as White House chief of staff, has in fact put forward a universally respected four-star combat Marine general for the Pentagon, the first general to lead the Defense Department since the chairman of the Combined Allied Military Chiefs of World War II and author of the Marshall Plan, George C. Marshall, an uplifting precedent. Health-care reform, meaning without monopolistic insurance fiefdoms in each state, skyrocketing premiums, and seeking universal coverage with assured retention of existing doctor relationships, will be in the hands of the Congress’s principal authority in the field (Tom Price). Education will be in the hands of Betsy DeVos, a champion of chartered schools, who will lead the final charge against the Luddite, know-nothing corruption of the teachers’ unions, who have destroyed the state education systems and to whom the Democratic Party is tied hand-and-foot. The Labor secretary (Andy Puzder), is perfectly qualified to complete the liberation of the American working class from the despotism of organized labour, now reduced to less than seven per cent of the work force. And the designated head of the Environmental Protection Agency (Scott Pruitt), will fight pollution and support conservation tooth and nail, but will not imagine that a possible one centigrade degree rise in the world’s temperature in 80 years for unknown reasons justifies fuelling automobiles with pablum, making every roof a crystal palace of solar panels, foresting windmills in every under-built area, except where it might discommode the scenic panorama of the altruistic rich such as the detritus of the Kennedys at Cape Cod.
There are the usual fussings about confirmation processes — it is all atonal whistling past the graveyard which is about to receive for interment the much discussed legacy of the Obushtons — Obamas, Bushes, Clintons. Donald Trump is right to call his narrow and numerically minority victory a “landslide.” He ran against all the Republicans and all the Democrats, the hackneyed Bush-McCain-Romney also-rans, the Cruz loopy-right, the Clinton-Obama incumbency, and the Sanders left, almost all the Washington media and almost all the polls, and the entire pay-to-play casino of lobbyists in the great Washington sleaze factory. He stormed Babylon and put them all to fire and sword. There were stylistic lapses in the campaign to be sure, but they were almost all designed to pull out the Archie Bunker votes and win Trump the Republican nomination with the votes of millions of people who had not been in the habit of voting. Since the nomination, there were relatively few gaucheries, and since the election almost none.
Taxes, spending, education, environment, campaign finance reform, health care, trade, and immigration are all about to receive as swingeing a stroke as Franklin D. Roosevelt gave the economy in 1933, and Trump has the mandate and the congressional majorities to do it. And the Democrats are still grumbling about Russian influence in the election and the electoral college system, mindless of their fate as Trump drives a mighty bulldozer toward them at 60 miles per hour. And in Canada, in the same spirit as the CBC radio panel that two weeks ago felt Canada was necessary to advise him that not all of the world’s 1.4 billion Muslims were at war with America, this week we had Lawrence Martin advise Brian Mulroney to “rein in” Trump, “protectionist, jingoistic, boorish, heapingly erratic” as he is. There is no dispute about Brian Mulroney’s diplomatic skills in dealing with the American presidents he’s known, and other world leaders, but he performed those feats as prime minister of a country that pulled its weight in the Western Alliance and contributed importantly to the satisfactory end of the Cold War.
Donald Trump does not need to be reined in. He has calculated every step of his campaign from the ridiculed dark horse of 18 months ago to the man who will be sworn as General George Washington’s 43rd direct successor in five weeks. To the extent any of Martin’s adjectives are applicable, it is just because Trump’s evaluation of tactical requirements makes them so. But Lawrence Martin actually warned the readers of The Globe and Mail on Tuesday that Michael Moore, the helter-skelter far left film-maker, torqued up by “Trumpian xenophobi(a),” had sounded the alarm that Trump has loaded his cabinet with “corporate-military statism … a fascist brew.” (Martin said pretty much the same thing about Ronald Reagan when he was Washington correspondent for the Globe 36 years ago.)
What mad national egotism, propelled by “arm-flapping moralism” (in the words of half-Canadian U.S. secretary of State Dean Acheson 60 years ago) propels Lawrence Martin to imagine that Canada has any standing to do anything but answer the phone if the White House calls. The Harper government, as it talked tough, allowed our armed forces to wither almost to the proportions of Slovenia or Costa Rica. Fortunately, Trump is not at all xenophobic, fascistic, racist or sexist. He is also not an advocate of “corporate-military-statism” any more than Harry Truman sought a government of haberdashers or Jimmy Carter one of peanut farmers. Trump saw that the U.S. system had become an anthill of corruption and hypocrisy and called it that. He promised to drain the swamp, and will do it; it will be a changed America in six months, and doubtless Lawrence Martin will ascribe it to Donald and Melania listening to the CBC each night in the White House. In this analysis, it is not the president-elect who has been sleepwalking through Fantasyland; he saw the American crisis plainly and launched one of history’s great democratic political movements to deal with it. The pure snowmen of the North plod cheerily on in Santa Lawrence Martin’s workshop, like happy elves incanting “High ho, high ho, there’s nothing about the U.S. we don’t know.” But there is.

http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/conrad-black-donald-trump-understands-america-in-ways-smug-canadians-cant
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Good2Golf on December 18, 2016, 11:19:05
....and  delusional, if he actually believes Syria will be stable any time within the next six months.  :stars:

That was more like what I was thinking...unless of course the Donald and the shirtless Chevalier come to an agreement and divvy up SYR?
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Old Sweat on December 18, 2016, 11:38:52
Or worse, if he believes peacekeepers can be imposed against the wishes of the combatants, and their presence will cause both sides to lay down their arms.  :facepalm:
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Oldgateboatdriver on December 18, 2016, 11:46:36
Foreign countries divvying up the area is how this whole mess started almost a hundred years ago now. I very much doubt that  foreign countries re-divvying it up now will help.

As for delusions, there are two more in Mr. O'Leary's speech that shows he is ignorant of Canada's position and actions in the world: (1) Other nations do not look upon Canada as a peacekeeping nation, at least not our allies and our enemies (and we have a few); and, (2) Canada deploying only peacekeepers in the future would be against our international obligations to many allies.

I was going to add that he also doesn't seem to understand that the past successes of our soldiers in peacekeeping has always been linked to the fact that our soldiers were a highly trained and effective fighting military force, but that is something that everyone in Canada outside DND seems to be ignorant of any way.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Good2Golf on December 18, 2016, 12:04:39
Or worse, if he believes peacekeepers can be imposed against the wishes of the combatants, and their presence will cause both sides to lay down their arms.  :facepalm:

Indeed, OS...because that's worked "well" in places like Croatia (Medak and Zadar), South Lebanon (PB Khiam), Rwanda and Somalia.

It briefs well in PowerPoint, though...
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: ballz on December 18, 2016, 12:16:23
O'Leary's best contribution to the Conservative Party leadership race would be to bring as much attention to it as he can. His best contribution to the Canadian political scene in general would be to continue using his spotlight to shine light on government policies destroying business opportunities and wasteful government spending.

If he enters the race, he'll do more harm than good.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Chris Pook on December 18, 2016, 12:27:40
Foreign countries divvying up the area is how this whole mess started almost a hundred years a few millenia ago now. I very much doubt that  foreign countries re-divvying it up now will help.

...

FTFY   :subbies:
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on December 18, 2016, 21:06:21
FTFY   :subbies:


I think OGBD was referring specifically to Messer Sykes and Picot and their little effort. Actually, after the Romans, except for a very salutary visit by Genghis Khan's fellows about 1,000 years ago and the rather stumbling crusaders a few hundred years later, there wasn't much outside interference ... it was, mostly, one more or less local caliph after another, most inept and corrupt.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Oldgateboatdriver on December 18, 2016, 21:58:28
Bazinga!
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: milnews.ca on December 21, 2016, 11:25:53
Sounds good now, but we'll have to see (http://ipolitics.ca/2016/12/20/otoole-unveils-vets-platform-breaks-from-harper-policy-on-pension-lawsuit/) ...
Quote
Conservative leadership candidate Erin O’Toole announced his veterans policy Tuesday — and among his promises is a pledge to “immediately drop” the legal effort commenced by the Harper government and revived by the Trudeau government to block a class-action lawsuit by veterans seeking a return to lifetime disability pensions.

A former veterans minister in the Stephen Harper government, O’Toole negotiated a ceasefire with veterans suing the then-Conservative government over Ottawa’s decision to replace lifetime pensions with lump-sum payments. That truce expired in May 2016 and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made it clear he would continue the challenge to the lawsuit despite promising to restore lifelong pensions as an option for injured veterans.

The case, known as the Equitas lawsuit, was filed in the B.C. Supreme Court in October 2012 by six veterans who argued modern soldiers were not getting the same level of support as those who fought in past wars ...
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: PuckChaser on December 21, 2016, 13:09:54
Even if Erin doesn't win, he's forcing the hand of the other leadership candidates who will have to take a stand on this issue. Good for him for bringing it back out into the open.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: milnews.ca on January 04, 2017, 15:36:11
More from the fight (http://m.torontosun.com/2017/01/04/raitt-drops-gloves-in-conservative-leadership) ...
Quote
The gloves are finally off in the federal Conservative race, with Lisa Raitt tossing blows Wednesday that she hopes will knock out both Kevin O’Leary and Kellie Leitch.

To Raitt, the blustery hyperbole-addicted O’Leary and the arguably race-baiting Leitch represent the type of politics that are so “irresponsible, divisive and negative” that they do not belong in a leadership campaign.

Raitt has even launched a website, www.StopKevinOLeary.com, to “reach out to Conservatives and Canadians across the country who don’t want either of these candidates in our politics.”

These are head shots and body blows that Raitt is now throwing at O’Leary and Leitch, and finally adding some political drama in a leadership race involving 14 candidates that has yet to rouse much public interest.

It’s a ballsy move on Raitt’s part, but Raitt is a calculating politician, and I say that as someone who worked with her as her senior communications adviser when she was transport minister in the Stephen Harper government.

She’s a tough, born-and-raised Cape Bretoner with CEO credentials who is not afraid to speak her mind.

And she obviously has had enough of both O’Leary and Leitch to the point of calling them out by name and publicly slamming them.

“O’Leary is a TV entertainer with no filter,” Raitt told a morning media briefing here at the national press theatre.

“He is the man who told our soldiers and veterans that there is ‘nothing proud’ about being a warrior. The man who thinks 3.5 billion people in poverty is ‘fantastic news.’

“The man who said if he were prime minister for 15 minutes, he would make unions illegal, his words being that ‘anyone who remains a union member would be thrown in jail.’

“Canadians will not elect someone who says nonsense like this,” Raitt said.

“Meanwhile, Kellie Leitch is embracing the other half of Donald Trump, the half that wins votes by putting our problems on immigrants,” she said.

“Leitch called Trump’s message ‘exciting’ and she wants to bring it to Canada. She wants to test immigrants for her undefined ‘Canadian values.’

“This brand of negative and divisive politics would drive our party right into the ground,” Raitt said.

“Their bluster would allow Justin Trudeau to govern for a generation.

“Instead of talking of broken Liberal promises and foolish Liberal failures, we would be wasting time and energy on baiting and sensational antics by either O’Leary or Leitch.

“And Canadian families,” she said, “would be left without relief. Without relief on their tax bill, on their electricity bill, and without new job opportunities.

“I refuse to let that happen.” ...
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Jarnhamar on January 04, 2017, 17:15:39
I don't know who Lisa Raitt is.

Kellie Leitch strikes me as fake and an opportunist. I think her whole "pepper spray for Women" was bullshit and I know of people who approached her in the past to ask about womens self-defense (pre pepper spray story) and Kellie popped smoke.

Erin has went on the record to say he's going to look into revamping our stupid and unfair firearm laws which is pretty cool.

Kevin seems like a reality TV star who has said some massively stupid things. His not warriors comment probably gave Trudeau a boner.


With Rick Hillier and Mike Bobbitt not in the running I'd vote for Erin.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: mariomike on January 04, 2017, 17:32:21
What about Ford Nation? #df4pm

"Two brothers - one vision".
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: the 48th regulator on January 04, 2017, 17:41:24
I'm with Jarnhammer!!

Mike Bobbit for PM!!!

 ;D
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: ballz on January 04, 2017, 17:46:13
O'Leary is just hogging attention and I believe will eventually endorse Maxime Bernier. He practically already did.

I'm pretty surprised only one person dropped out at the 50k deadline... with one jumping in last minute I believe its still at 14.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Fishbone Jones on January 04, 2017, 18:27:39
I like Kellie Leitch. She's the only one so far that has taken a stand on things. She's been fleshing out her policies. She's resonating with blue collar Canadian taxpayers. I also like being told the truth, which I haven't been feeling from anyone else. All I hear from her opponents is the same tired platitudes that every politician trots out when they have nothing to talk about.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: George Wallace on January 04, 2017, 18:41:11
Maxime Bernier lost it in my books years ago, even before he put his name in the hat.  Taking Classified documents home, and living with a woman/biker chick with known Biker Club connections, then having all that widely publicized told me that he has no concept of national security.  But, we have seen worse; some very much worse.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: cavalryman on January 04, 2017, 19:38:15
But, we have seen worse; some very much worse.
Yep.  One almost became POTUS.  [:'(
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: George Wallace on January 04, 2017, 20:15:52
Well....Just saw my first ATTACK AD......Lisa Raitt is attacking two candidates for the Leadership.....Kelly Leitch and the yet to declare Kevin O'Leary.......Insinuating that they are of the same ilk as Donald Trump.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Technoviking on January 04, 2017, 21:35:58
Well....Just saw my first ATTACK AD......Lisa Raitt is attacking two candidates for the Leadership.....Kelly Leitch and the yet to declare Kevin O'Leary.......Insinuating that they are of the same ilk as Donald Trump.
You mean the guy who won the US Election by appealing to the people, smashing the status quo and riding a bow wave of pent up anger against years of extremist left wing social ideology?

Sign me up to Kelly Leitch then!  (Since Mr O'Leary has yet to declare)
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Jarnhamar on January 04, 2017, 21:41:39
You mean the guy who won the US Election by appealing to the people, smashing the status quo and riding a bow wave of pent up anger against years of extremist left wing social ideology?

Sign me up to Kelly Leitch then!  (Since Mr O'Leary has yet to declare)

But according to polls Trump only had a 1% chance of winning lol
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Kat Stevens on January 04, 2017, 22:13:48
I'm disappointed that Michelle Rempel doesn't seem to be interested in taking a run at it.  She seems to get us common folks, and isn't afraid to fart in church if it's necessary.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: ballz on January 04, 2017, 22:17:37
Maxime Bernier lost it in my books years ago, even before he put his name in the hat.  Taking Classified documents home, and living with a woman/biker chick with known Biker Club connections, then having all that widely publicized told me that he has no concept of national security.  But, we have seen worse; some very much worse.

Actually, she hadn't had any known connections to biker gangs for 10 years prior to meeting Maxime. It is entirely possible that he didn't know. And I doubt he's the only politician to bring paperwork home, he was just unfortunate enough to be dating a vengeful woman, happens to the best of us. But he admitted his mistake, resigned, and to this day admits he made a mistake. One mistake in a 10 year political career, and he owns up to it like a man and carries on. But, 9 years later, people still want to use that incident of all things.

I find it funny the weird nuances people seem to want to nail people against the wall for. With Gary Johnson it was the whole Aleppo ordeal, even though 98% of voters didn't know what Aleppo was and it was nothing in comparison to some of the dirt and dumb things that came out of the other two candidates.

I like Kellie Leitch. She's the only one so far that has taken a stand on things. She's been fleshing out her policies. She's resonating with blue collar Canadian taxpayers. I also like being told the truth, which I haven't been feeling from anyone else. All I hear from her opponents is the same tired platitudes that every politician trots out when they have nothing to talk about.

 ???

Maxime Bernier has been policy heavy from the start...

Repeal the Canada Health Act
End corporate welfare (specifically pointing out GM and Bombardier bailouts, despite Bombardier bailouts being money for Quebec)
End supply management (despite Quebec having almost 50% of all dairy farms in Canada) **something every other politician is afraid to fight against**
Reduce government spending (you'll notice a lot of his policies involve cutting government revenues)
Scrap boutique tax credits and instead, increase the basic personal exemption
Abolish the maple syrup cartel
De-fund the CBC
Dismantle the CRTC
Eliminate the carbon tax
Replace the firearms act with legislation that protects property rights
Change our relationship with First Nations by respecting their property rights
Reduce Corporate Tax rate to 10%
End interprovincial trade barriers (which I can't even believe exist)
Abolish capital gains tax

7 years ago, he was saying the same things, he's been nothing but principled and consistent in his message... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p3XSAXqoado

Kellie Leitch...

Screen immigrants for Canadian values (I am not going to call her racist over this... I am just going to say its a pointless endeavour and is more of a sound bite than it is a policy)
Take pepper spray off the list of prohibited weapons
Cap government spending
No national carbon tax
Against legalizing marijuana
Dismantle CBC
Let the People Speak Act (I actually like this, its from Switzerland's model and we need it)
And 5 things to support national resource development, mostly all authoritarian in nature.
Anything else?

As for "truth," her own campaign manager is gloating about straight up lying.... http://ipolitics.ca/2017/01/03/leitch-campaign-manager-gloats-about-spreading-false-info/
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: ballz on January 04, 2017, 22:20:22
I'm disappointed that Michelle Rempel doesn't seem to be interested in taking a run at.  She seems to get us common folks, and isn't afraid to fart in church if it's necessary.

I think she's got a bright future ahead of her. She's only been an MP for 6 years and she's still young. She'll be a force for the CPC for a long time.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Technoviking on January 05, 2017, 00:31:41
But according to polls Trump only had a 1% chance of winning lol
s
He didn't win; the Russians hacked it. LOL
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Fishbone Jones on January 05, 2017, 01:06:30
I still like Leitch and I don't want any more Prime Ministers from Quebec for quite a while.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Jarnhamar on January 05, 2017, 01:17:05
s
He didn't win; the Russians hacked it. LOL

Yes the Russian hackers. CNN ran a story on it which included a picture of supposed Russian hackers.

(https://Army.ca/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcdn.bgr.com%2F2017%2F01%2Ffallout.jpg%3Fquality%3D98%26amp%3Bstrip%3Dall%26amp%3Bw%3D952&hash=8b28dd692acf504d99ae1cf7c7424f2c)

Incidentally the hackers hacking looks an awefull lot like the XBOX video game I'm playing at the moment.
http://bgr.com/2017/01/02/cnn-hacking-fallout-screenshot/
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: mariomike on January 05, 2017, 08:15:34
One almost became POTUS.  [:'(

123 pages in Radio Chatter about that.  :)

Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Remius on January 05, 2017, 13:19:06
Frankly the whole bunch of them (how many now?  13? 14?) are entirely uninspiring.  Bernier and maybe Raitt would get my vote if I was a voting member.  It doesn't really matter as whoever is the next leader won't be after the next election.  I honestly do not think any of them can take on Trudeau.

This CBC article, which is biased I must say but isn't necessarily wrong with the assessment. 

http://www.cbc.ca/news/opinion/winner-conservative-race-1.3921456

I hope that after 2019 or 2020 someone of true quality with lead the CPC.  Maybe by 2023-24 we'll see another conservative government.   
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: the 48th regulator on January 07, 2017, 18:04:37


http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/anti-canadian-values-test-leitch-1.3925420


Kellie Leitch would charge immigrants for Canadian values test

Fee wouldn't apply to refugees — but they would still be required to take the test

By Catharine Tunney, CBC News Posted: Jan 07, 2017 5:00 AM ET Last Updated: Jan 07, 2017 5:00 AM ET


Conservative leadership hopeful Kellie Leitch says she would charge immigrants a fee to cover the cost of her proposed Canadian values screening test at the border.

"For myself, screening everyone for Canadian values, screening everyone at the border is important ... My intention is to transfer that cost to the individual who is immigrating here," the Simcoe-Grey MP told the CBC's Catherine Cullen on The House.

"Prior to our Conservative government, the Liberals had brought in a fee for individuals that were immigrating to Canada and my intention would be to bring back that fee."

Introduced by then-finance minister Paul Martin in 1995, the $975 right-of-landing fee was reduced to $490 and renamed the right of permanent residence fee under the Stephen Harper government during the 2006 budget.

Leitch said it would be a jumping off point, but any fee would have to be adjusted for inflation and the number of immigrants coming to Canada.

The fee would only apply to immigrants, not refugees, she added. Refugees would, however, still have to take the test.

One of the key components to Leitch's campaign is a push to conduct interviews with every potential new Canadian.

Leitch's controversial platform, which has been targeted by opponents, includes conducting face-to-face interviews with immigrants for values including equal opportunity, hard work, helping others, generosity, freedom and tolerance.

How immigration officials would go about testing for generosity is still being hammered out.

"The opportunity for creating appropriate ways of questioning  are absolutely there and I look forward to working with Canadian public servants and Canadians in general to make sure we have the right questions to ask," she said

©2017 CBC/Radio-Canada. All rights reserved
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Remius on January 09, 2017, 20:23:35

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/anti-canadian-values-test-leitch-1.3925420


Kellie Leitch would charge immigrants for Canadian values test

Fee wouldn't apply to refugees — but they would still be required to take the test

By Catharine Tunney, CBC News Posted: Jan 07, 2017 5:00 AM ET Last Updated: Jan 07, 2017 5:00 AM ET


Conservative leadership hopeful Kellie Leitch says she would charge immigrants a fee to cover the cost of her proposed Canadian values screening test at the border.

"For myself, screening everyone for Canadian values, screening everyone at the border is important ... My intention is to transfer that cost to the individual who is immigrating here," the Simcoe-Grey MP told the CBC's Catherine Cullen on The House.

"Prior to our Conservative government, the Liberals had brought in a fee for individuals that were immigrating to Canada and my intention would be to bring back that fee."

Introduced by then-finance minister Paul Martin in 1995, the $975 right-of-landing fee was reduced to $490 and renamed the right of permanent residence fee under the Stephen Harper government during the 2006 budget.

Leitch said it would be a jumping off point, but any fee would have to be adjusted for inflation and the number of immigrants coming to Canada.

The fee would only apply to immigrants, not refugees, she added. Refugees would, however, still have to take the test.

One of the key components to Leitch's campaign is a push to conduct interviews with every potential new Canadian.

Leitch's controversial platform, which has been targeted by opponents, includes conducting face-to-face interviews with immigrants for values including equal opportunity, hard work, helping others, generosity, freedom and tolerance.

How immigration officials would go about testing for generosity is still being hammered out.

"The opportunity for creating appropriate ways of questioning  are absolutely there and I look forward to working with Canadian public servants and Canadians in general to make sure we have the right questions to ask," she said

©2017 CBC/Radio-Canada. All rights reserved

Her and Trudeau are two sides of the same coin.  Some of her base will believe her stuff the same way Trudeau's base believe his.  Both are without real susbstance.  Her drain the canal analogy today sealed the deal for me about taking her seriously...
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Altair on January 10, 2017, 09:29:03
Is it wrong that I'm torn between O'Leary and Trudeau?
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: SeaKingTacco on January 10, 2017, 09:55:52
Is it wrong that I'm torn between O'Leary and Trudeau?

Not really. It is a free country. Whatever floats your boat.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Lightguns on January 10, 2017, 10:03:38
Frankly the whole bunch of them (how many now?  13? 14?) are entirely uninspiring.  Bernier and maybe Raitt would get my vote if I was a voting member.  It doesn't really matter as whoever is the next leader won't be after the next election.  I honestly do not think any of them can take on Trudeau.

This CBC article, which is biased I must say but isn't necessarily wrong with the assessment. 

http://www.cbc.ca/news/opinion/winner-conservative-race-1.3921456

I hope that after 2019 or 2020 someone of true quality with lead the CPC.  Maybe by 2023-24 we'll see another conservative government.

2019?  You mean 30 more PM Trudeau vacations from now?
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: George Wallace on January 10, 2017, 10:16:40
Reflecting on the US election, and the failures in our recent elections, I can see O'Leary actually doing well.  People seem to dismiss the current crop of "leadership" candidates who have "no vision" or "dream", who just seem to follow the tired old Party Lines and seem to be only in it for profit.  Trump came out with a "dream"; a dream "to make America Great again."  Perhaps he was playing on Martin Luther King Jr's "I have a dream" or actually had a desire to make America Great again.  I can see the Conservative Parties of Canada and Ontario, both having the same problem: people are tired of the "politician without a dream" and the end result is that only a "loser" will face off against the Liberals.  The candidate who comes forward with a "dream" may well take the leadership by storm.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Baden Guy on January 10, 2017, 11:50:48
Mentioning MLK Jr and Trump in the same breath.  :(
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: milnews.ca on January 10, 2017, 12:08:38
I can see the Conservative Parties of Canada and Ontario, both having the same problem: people are tired of the "politician without a dream" and the end result is that only a "loser" will face off against the Liberals.  The candidate who comes forward with a "dream" may well take the leadership by storm.
Have to be careful about such dreams, though - one man's "Make x Great Again" is another man's "X's back!"  Sound nice, but not much substance in the slogan alone.

Then again, who reads platform documents anymore anyway, right?  :(
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: mariomike on January 10, 2017, 12:12:38
Mentioning MLK Jr and Trump in the same breath.  :(

I remember going into homes here in Toronto and seeing three portraits on the walls: Jesus Christ, President Kennedy and Rev. Martin Luther King Jr.


Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Remius on January 10, 2017, 12:31:02
Reflecting on the US election, and the failures in our recent elections, I can see O'Leary actually doing well.  People seem to dismiss the current crop of "leadership" candidates who have "no vision" or "dream", who just seem to follow the tired old Party Lines and seem to be only in it for profit.  Trump came out with a "dream"; a dream "to make America Great again."  Perhaps he was playing on Martin Luther King Jr's "I have a dream" or actually had a desire to make America Great again.  I can see the Conservative Parties of Canada and Ontario, both having the same problem: people are tired of the "politician without a dream" and the end result is that only a "loser" will face off against the Liberals.  The candidate who comes forward with a "dream" may well take the leadership by storm.

It's not a question of dreaming as much as it is them being uninspiring.  And that is personal opinion I admit.

But there are fundamental differences between our system and theirs and even the conservative vs liberal mindset here.  Remember that Stephen harper's conservatives had more in common with the Democrats than anything else and that our Liberals are far more to the left than the democrats are.

The concern is that the CPC is an alliance of conservatives.  Fiscal, progressives and traditional social conservatives.  Ms. Leitch will likely split her party perhaps irreversibly along those lines.  O'Leary is more of a red tory and conservatives don't think he espouses traditional conservative views or values.  Other than the economy he has very little in common with them.  That will also lead to a split, I fear.  I can't see, so far, any leader that can keep the party united like Brian Mulroney or Stephen harper was able to do.

I have no doubt that either can win the leadership.  It will be interesting to see what sort of party comes after though.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Good2Golf on January 10, 2017, 12:43:00
The discussion of CPC vs. "Alliance (re-branded Reform) + PC" and whether a split is inevitable has been a long time coming.  :nod:

Regards
G2G
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Altair on January 10, 2017, 13:56:01
It's not a question of dreaming as much as it is them being uninspiring.  And that is personal opinion I admit.

But there are fundamental differences between our system and theirs and even the conservative vs liberal mindset here.  Remember that Stephen harper's conservatives had more in common with the Democrats than anything else and that our Liberals are far more to the left than the democrats are.

The concern is that the CPC is an alliance of conservatives.  Fiscal, progressives and traditional social conservatives.  Ms. Leitch will likely split her party perhaps irreversibly along those lines.  O'Leary is more of a red tory and conservatives don't think he espouses traditional conservative views or values.  Other than the economy he has very little in common with them.  That will also lead to a split, I fear.  I can't see, so far, any leader that can keep the party united like Brian Mulroney or Stephen harper was able to do.

I have no doubt that either can win the leadership.  It will be interesting to see what sort of party comes after though.
Is O'Leary even a Conservative? I could just as easily see him running under a liberal banner if they happened to have a job opening for a leader right now.

He, like Trump in a sense, is simply using the party as a vehicle to advance. I think in that sense he can appeal to a broad number of Canadians and not get stuck in the ideological battles of lifelong conservative members. And like trump and the republicans, enough CPC members would never vote for anyone else ever, allowing him to pick up more voters from groups that traditionally don't vote conservative.

Someone like Leitch is perfect to win the leadership, appealing to enough conservative core members to get them to support her, but come election time I doubt her ability to expand the party past what they got in the last election.

I personally would only vote for Erin Or O'Leary out of the conservative camp. Anyone else and I'm either voting BQ or LPC.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: ballz on January 10, 2017, 17:57:31
If O'Leary could speak french I could possibly vote for him over Bernier. Not that I think he's got better policies than Bernier, but in our modern day obsession with celebrity over substance, O'Leary has more brand value with the average Canadian. However, unable to take on Trudeau in Quebec and Trudeau runs away with Quebec in the election and is almost guaranteed victory. Maxime Bernier is the only candidate that can take on Trudeau in Quebec. Anyone else (so far) will have to win without Quebec as PM Harper struggled to do.

Conservatives seem to be falling into the same stupid game than the Liberals fell into that decimated their party and made them irrelevant for a short period of time..... just looking for a "star" candidate. Look where that got the country... deficits until 2050... and if we play the same game, PM Trudeau will actually be PM long enough to run deficits until 2050.

O'Leary is more of a red tory and conservatives don't think he espouses traditional conservative views or values.  Other than the economy he has very little in common with them.

Is O'Leary even a Conservative? I could just as easily see him running under a liberal banner if they happened to have a job opening for a leader right now.

He's practically libertarian. A "moderate" libertarian if you will (wait, is that an oxymoron haha), fiscally conservative and socially liberal. He's already said he would have a hard time running against Bernier because he agrees with everything Bernier says.

I get what you are saying but I don't think O'Leary could win leadership with the Liberals, they are far too happy to *spend* money in the way they think we all ought to live. I think O'Leary, Bernier, and other fiscally conservative, socially liberal people can really only fit in the Conservative party since taxes / government spending dominates much of the discussion. Their laissez-faire approach to social issues will always handicap them within the CPC though.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Fishbone Jones on January 10, 2017, 18:26:52
How can you be a libertarian, moderate or not, and still believe in gun control?
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Jarnhamar on January 10, 2017, 18:31:06
Is O'Leary even a Conservative? I could just as easily see him running under a liberal banner if they happened to have a job opening for a leader right now.



I think you're 100% right.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Altair on January 10, 2017, 18:33:37
How can you be a libertarian, moderate or not, and still believe in gun control?
How can one be conservative and support gay marriage?

He's not a cookie cutter libertarian, he's Kevin O'Leary. I don't think one can label him very effectively.

I think you're 100% right.
This is a rare occurance.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: ballz on January 10, 2017, 18:53:28
How can you be a libertarian, moderate or not, and still believe in gun control?

You're asking about O'Leary, right? What was his stance on gun control?

I don't know O'Leary's stance on gun control, so I can't comment specifically towards him. But even I, as a libertarian who hates the Firearms Act and would burn it in a heartbeat, and would drastically reduce the firearms (and other weapons) laws we have, believe in a level of gun control that some libertarians would claim makes me a communist.

In any case, many libertarians would savagely attack any other "libertarian" who doesn't conform to what they believe is the "true" form of libertarianism. Anarchists would throw minarchists and classical liberals under the bus in a heartbeat. I've taken a ton of flak for believing Canada should have a standing professional military (a larger, more expensive one at that), which apparently makes me the worse libertarian to ever live. Libertarians are their own worse enemies.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Jarnhamar on January 10, 2017, 19:05:28
You're asking about O'Leary, right? What was his stance on gun control?

I don't know O'Leary's stance on gun control

Here are quotes from Kevin O'Leary on AR15 rifles in Canada.

Quote
"there is no need anybody to have that"

Quote
" you would never hunt with it, you would only use it to kill people.."

Quote
"that is a weapon that is just used to kill everybody in the room! Who should have that? Nobody! "

Quote
"unless you are an accredited law enforcement officer, what the hell are you doing with that rifle?"

Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Thucydides on January 10, 2017, 19:23:22
The problem in a sense is that people are trying to emulate Donald Trump, but Donald Trump is a unique individual, and anyone trying to emulate him will not be able to do so.

The other issue is that Donald Trump, while notionally "Republican", is really the leader of the New American Party, and trying to pin traditional Republican (or even Democrat) labels on his program is a mugs game. The populism that President Trump tapped into is specific for the here and now of the United States, and anyone who wants to play the "Trump card" in Canada would have to find the specific flash points for Canadian population, and the means to connect directly with the population (bypassing the media gatekeepers).

Of course not only will there be some people who will try to emulate President Trump without understanding who he is and what he stands for, but the Canadian media will also be happy to try to pin the table on people they don't like (also without understanding who President Trump is or what he stands for).
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: mariomike on January 10, 2017, 19:28:06
Here are quotes from Kevin O'Leary on AR15 rifles in Canada.

"that is a weapon that is just used to kill everybody in the room!"

I thought that was the AK?! 

"AK-47, the very best there is. When you absolutely, positively, got to kill every mother%$#er in the room; accept no substitutes."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gDyXbcu2RXg

"NOTHING, gets between me and my AK!"  :)
 
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: ballz on January 10, 2017, 19:30:09
Here are quotes from Kevin O'Leary on AR15 rifles in Canada.

Well that's disappointing... Another city-kid that is automatically scared by their own ignorance. I suspect, away from the TV and over a beer, he'd probably see the light.... but pobody's nerfect.

EDIT: Regardless, I would still see him as fiscally conservative, socially laissez-faire on *most* issues... which is a moderate libertarian. Everyone has exceptions to an ideology that they are associated with (whether or not they choose to be), if not they're probably crazy.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Technoviking on January 10, 2017, 19:33:48
I fail to understand why people are afraid of social conservatives. The stuff that the social Liberals are ramming down our Collective throats is appalling.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: ballz on January 10, 2017, 19:36:04
I fail to understand why people are afraid of social conservatives. The stuff that the social Liberals are ramming down our Collective throats is appalling.

I'm afraid of anyone that thinks it's okay to use the state to tell me how to live my life. Social conservatives and social progressives are equally terrifying.

When I say socially liberal, I mean liberal in the classical liberal sense, not today's version of the word.

EDIT: In fact, I see social conservatives and social progressives as equals. "It's not about left vs right, it's about authoritarianism vs liberty."
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: milnews.ca on January 10, 2017, 20:25:28
... Another expat city-kid that is automatically scared by their own ignorance ...
FTFY
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: George Wallace on January 10, 2017, 21:15:46
Well....we won't need Russian hackers with Bernier at the helm.  He'll just leave those Secret documents laying around his condo for anyone to view.   >:D
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: cavalryman on January 10, 2017, 21:31:38
Well....we won't need Russian hackers with Bernier at the helm.  He'll just leave those Secret documents laying around his condo for anyone to view.   >:D
Just think about the opportunities for disinformation  [:D
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: GAP on January 10, 2017, 22:00:11
Well....we won't need Russian hackers with Bernier at the helm.  He'll just leave those Secret documents laying around his condo for anyone to view.   >:D

Well.........after seeing the reason he was distracted, I understood.....she was rather distracting......... ;D
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Altair on January 18, 2017, 11:06:09
O'Leary was smart to avoid embarrassing himself in the French debate.

 When only half of the people running can actually talk French I am beginning to think that Trudeau won have any serious competition in 2019.

 Maxime Bernier, Chris Alexander, Steven Blaney, Rick Peterson, Andrew Sheer, Micheal Chong, Pierre Lemieux. That's it.

 Lisa Raitt is terrible

 Kellie Leitch is has major issues with French.

 Deepak Obhrai can't even read French off his own notes, never mind speak it.

 Brat Tost is lost in French, gets easily annoyed and switches to English.

 Erin O'Toole was decent enough...I guess? Speaks it like a 5th grader, but at least he can speak it. Would get massacred by Trudeau however.

 Andrew Saxton is in the same category as O'Toole, can speak it but not at a high level.

 So 7 People who can actually go toe to toe with a fully bilingual Prime Minister out of 15.

 Of those, Peterson wont win, Chong is a longshot, Lemieux isn't winning it, Blaney doesn't have any name recognition outside of Quebec. That leaves the conservatives with Sheer, Alexander, and Bernier as the only ones who have a shot of winning who can be considered fully bilingual.

 I don't know if the Conservatives strategy involves completely ignoring Quebec, but looking at this leadership contest, I can't help but think it might be.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: gryphonv on January 18, 2017, 12:20:24

 I don't know if the Conservatives strategy involves completely ignoring Quebec, but looking at this leadership contest, I can't help but think it might be.

It's worked before, and Trudeau is making it a little easier for someone to swoop in and steal the English vote in Quebec. While it is a small demographic, it still can swing the tides in a few electorates.

Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Altair on January 18, 2017, 12:52:35
It's worked before, and Trudeau is making it a little easier for someone to swoop in and steal the English vote in Quebec. While it is a small demographic, it still can swing the tides in a few electorates.
The English vote in Quebec is centered around Montreal. Montreal, a big urban multicultural center is not exactly fertile ground for the conservative party. Even during the big liberal collapse of 2011 they didn't lose the anglo vote in Quebec around Montreal.

And yes, the Harper conservative years were great at splintering the Quebec vote up until 2015. 2006 it went mostly bloc, and away from the Liberals. 2008, same story. 2011, it went NDP, who had the best chance of forming government outside of the CPC that year, but NDP weakness in the rest of Canada wasted that vote. 2015 it went Liberal once again and coupled with strength in the rest of Canada the Liberals were able to win.

So it's possible to win without Quebec, but that means the Quebec vote needs to be split, or wasted on parties that cannot win, (bloc, NDP). With the bloc a spent force, and the NDP not likely having a leader with as much Quebec Bona Fides as Mulcair and Layton, unless the CPC can compete with the Liberals in Quebec, there is only one way for that vote to go.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: jollyjacktar on January 18, 2017, 13:05:45
I believe that anyone wanting to be the next PM and is unable to converse in both official languages has about as much chance as the Leafs winning back to back Stanley Cups.  If you can't play in both playgrounds with the kids, you're done.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Chris Pook on January 18, 2017, 13:08:08
The interesting candidate for me, with respect to Quebec, is Maxime Bernier.

He comes from a part of the country that has found common cause with Anglos in the past on small c-conservatism (economic and cultural).  The problem for the western Conservatives has been the difference on Co-operatives.  Co-operatives, introduced in Canada in the west were slow to be adopted in Quebec.  But while they have faded elsewhere they remain very strong in Quebec.   Especially the dairy co-ops.

Bernier is challenging those co-ops on their home turf.

It will be interesting to see how he makes out.  If he can carry his seat in the face of the dairy lobby in his home riding, I think, it will put him in a very interesting position - a socially liberal, economically conservative (ie economically classical liberal) from Quebec.

Will Quebecers, and more particularly, Beaucerons, vote blood or ideology?

By they way, for the record, I'm supporting Bernier.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Remius on January 18, 2017, 13:12:34
The interesting candidate for me, with respect to Quebec, is Maxime Bernier.

He comes from a part of the country that has found common cause with Anglos in the past on small c-conservatism (economic and cultural).  The problem for the western Conservatives has been the difference on Co-operatives.  Co-operatives, introduced in Canada in the west were slow to be adopted in Quebec.  But while they have faded elsewhere they remain very strong in Quebec.   Especially the dairy co-ops.

Bernier is challenging those co-ops on their home turf.

It will be interesting to see how he makes out.  If he can carry his seat in the face of the dairy lobby in his home riding, I think, it will put him in a very interesting position - a socially liberal, economically conservative (ie economically classical liberal) from Quebec.

Will Quebecers, and more particularly, Beaucerons, vote blood or ideology?

By they way, for the record, I'm supporting Bernier.

Right now he's the front runner for me.  If I had to vote it would be for him  Not sure he can take on Trudeau unfortunately but he stands a better chance than the rest. 
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Altair on January 18, 2017, 13:24:10
The interesting candidate for me, with respect to Quebec, is Maxime Bernier.

He comes from a part of the country that has found common cause with Anglos in the past on small c-conservatism (economic and cultural).  The problem for the western Conservatives has been the difference on Co-operatives.  Co-operatives, introduced in Canada in the west were slow to be adopted in Quebec.  But while they have faded elsewhere they remain very strong in Quebec.   Especially the dairy co-ops.

Bernier is challenging those co-ops on their home turf.

It will be interesting to see how he makes out.  If he can carry his seat in the face of the dairy lobby in his home riding, I think, it will put him in a very interesting position - a socially liberal, economically conservative (ie economically classical liberal) from Quebec.

Will Quebecers, and more particularly, Beaucerons, vote blood or ideology?

By they way, for the record, I'm supporting Bernier.
Bernier is one of the only candidates that can produce a vote split in Quebec. Some will vote blood, some will vote ideology.

His true advantage is his distancing from the legacy of Harper. Harper, while respected in Quebec, was never loved, and by the end was actively disliked by Quebecers. A lot of those running now will continue to pay for that attachment to the former Prime Ministers dislike in Quebec. Bernier was removed from all that after being punted from cabinet in a way that Blaney, Sheer, Alexander Leitch, Raitt are not. He can claim to be a outsider with fresh ideas while everyone else was a lieutenant of Harper in one way or another.

It will be interesting to see how he does in the leadership contest, because I think he is the perceived frontrunner now and will draw most of the fire of the rest, especially Leitch and O'Leary.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Remius on January 18, 2017, 13:27:27
I wonder though if the western caucus and their supporters would be able to stomach a leader from Quebec or if we may see a split along regional lines again.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: PuckChaser on January 18, 2017, 13:30:24
I wonder though if the western caucus and their supporters would be able to stomach a leader from Quebec or if we may see a split along regional lines again.

They changed the way the voting works for the leader, you need broad party support across all regional lines to win. No longer will the big ridings in Alberta hold who the balance of power. If Bernier has Quebec, he'll need Alberta and Nova Scotia support as well to win.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: dapaterson on January 18, 2017, 13:33:10
The English vote in Quebec is centered around Montreal. Montreal, a big urban multicultural center is not exactly fertile ground for the conservative party. Even during the big liberal collapse of 2011 they didn't lose the anglo vote in Quebec around Montreal.

You may wish to look at the 2011 electoral map.  While Westmount remained reliably Liberal, Notre Dame de Grace, a yellow-dog Liberal riding switched to the NDP.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Altair on January 18, 2017, 13:48:24
You may wish to look at the 2011 electoral map.  While Westmount remained reliably Liberal, Notre Dame de Grace, a yellow-dog Liberal riding switched to the NDP.
was that a result of losing the English vote or the NDP running up the French vote do you think?
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: dapaterson on January 18, 2017, 14:42:56
Despite the French name, NDG remains a largely English enclave.  I haven't seen poll by poll numbers, but I would have thought that its loss would have triggered a little more introspection on the part of the Natural Governing Party.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: cavalryman on January 18, 2017, 15:01:46
introspection on the part of the Natural Governing Party.
:rofl:

Oh - wait - you were serious... never mind.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Chris Pook on January 18, 2017, 15:28:19
I wonder though if the western caucus and their supporters would be able to stomach a leader from Quebec or if we may see a split along regional lines again.

Pretty sure he is doing all right here in Alberta. And BC.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: ballz on January 18, 2017, 18:45:28
So it's possible to win without Quebec, but that means the Quebec vote needs to be split, or wasted on parties that cannot win, (bloc, NDP). With the bloc a spent force, and the NDP not likely having a leader with as much Quebec Bona Fides as Mulcair and Layton, unless the CPC can compete with the Liberals in Quebec, there is only one way for that vote to go.

This is exactly it. Harper won without Quebec because of the Orange Wave. The Orange Wave died with Jack Layton, and the BQ is in shambles. A uni-lingual CPC leader guarantees the Liberals take all of Quebec and the election.

They changed the way the voting works for the leader, you need broad party support across all regional lines to win. No longer will the big ridings in Alberta hold who the balance of power. If Bernier has Quebec, he'll need Alberta and Nova Scotia support as well to win.

The last time the numbers were published, Max had the most donors in every province except for Ontario where it was a virtual tie (42% Leitch / 40% Bernier). He had 71% of donors in Alberta and 68% of donors in BC.

Max was the front runner, for sure, until O'Leary joined. But, all the previous polls are kind of irrelevant now. O'Leary will cause a giant shake-up because its impossible to tell how many Bernier / Leitch / Riatt voters will change their voting contention now. So, who is the front runner now is anybody's guess.

I am surprised he joined, I thought he was doing a publicity stunt and would eventually endorse Max. I still think, in the end, he ends up endorsing Max.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Altair on January 23, 2017, 08:31:49
This is exactly it. Harper won without Quebec because of the Orange Wave. The Orange Wave died with Jack Layton, and the BQ is in shambles. A uni-lingual CPC leader guarantees the Liberals take all of Quebec and the election.

The last time the numbers were published, Max had the most donors in every province except for Ontario where it was a virtual tie (42% Leitch / 40% Bernier). He had 71% of donors in Alberta and 68% of donors in BC.

Max was the front runner, for sure, until O'Leary joined. But, all the previous polls are kind of irrelevant now. O'Leary will cause a giant shake-up because its impossible to tell how many Bernier / Leitch / Riatt voters will change their voting contention now. So, who is the front runner now is anybody's guess.

I am surprised he joined, I thought he was doing a publicity stunt and would eventually endorse Max. I still think, in the end, he ends up endorsing Max.
I think Trump started as a publicity stunt as well until he realized one day that he could win.

Might be the same with O'Leary.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: milnews.ca on January 26, 2017, 07:37:12
Just for some shits & giggles, the World Socialist Web Site's take on the Guy Still In Boston (https://goo.gl/Y3cnlu):
Quote
Oligarch investor seeks leadership of Canada’s Conservatives

Just days after proposing that the federal government become more of a “profit-center” by selling Senate seats, multi-millionaire investor, reality television star, and inveterate blow-hard Kevin O’Leary announced he is a candidate to lead Canada’s Conservative Party.

O’Leary joins thirteen other candidates vying to lead Canada’s Official Opposition. But much of the media has already anointed him the “front runner” in the Conservative leadership race, which will climax at a party convention in May.

The post of Conservative leader has been vacant since Stephen Harper resigned within hours of his decade-old Conservative government losing the October 2015 federal election to the Justin Trudeau-led Liberals.

O’Leary, who has no political experience, is claiming strong support for his candidacy, based largely on name recognition from his numerous television appearances as a business commentator and his leading role in two “reality” based shows that extol the virtues of entrepreneurship—the Canadian version of “Dragon’s Den” and its American spin-off, “Shark Tank.” His candidacy is supported by long-time right-wing party stalwarts, such as former Ontario Premier Mike Harris, Senator Marjorie LeBreton, and former Harper confidante Mike Coates.

O’Leary has long been associated with the unbridled cultivation of wealth and the celebration of social inequality as keystones of a well-functioning capitalist economy. In 2014, in his capacity as business expert on a Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC) financial news program, he infamously hailed a then-recent Oxfam report that showed the richest 85 people in the world owned as much as the poorest 3.5 billion ...
Etc., etc., etc. ...
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: milnews.ca on January 28, 2017, 09:12:37
Some National Post commentary (http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/chris-selley-enough-with-the-trump-oleary-comparisons) on O'Leary's appeal to Conservatives ...
Quote
...     Partly this is just human nature: we fixate on what is nearby and recent. Partly, I think, it’s a convenient way for Canadians to feel superior and comfortable — “at least [INSERT PROBLEM] isn’t as bad as in the States.” And I’m convinced the same phenomenon is at play in much of the coverage of Kevin O’Leary’s candidacy for the Conservative leadership. He is constantly compared with Donald Trump and found much more dissimilar than similar … and yet the comparisons keep coming. He’s been on TV, he’s never been a politician, he’s notably braggadocious; someone like that just became president, ergo it’s more plausible O’Leary can succeed.

    Succeed he might. But there are many reasons to think he won’t. The votes are ranked ballots and every riding is weighted equally, which does not benefit a divisive candidate. His pitch that “surfer dude” Justin Trudeau is literally ruining the country will play well among a segment of the party base. But that same segment will be turned off by his stances on CBC (“a premier news gathering organization”), the military (“there’s nothing proud about being a warrior”), peacekeeping (“I don’t want to bomb or get involved in any campaigns … other than keeping the peace”), ISIS (“the last nationality ISIS wants to put a bullet through is a Canadian”), the Senate (why not sell seats for profit?), legalizing marijuana (“a remarkable opportunity”) … well, I’ll stop. Not only is he not particularly conservative, he’s well designed to drive Conservatives batty.

    Trump promised jobs to people who had lost them under both Democratic and Republican administrations; to the extent he violated Republican orthodoxy it was that of the elites, not of the blue-collar voters. O’Leary is promising little of substance while violating various orthodoxies of the Conservative elites and base alike. Loving the military, rolling eyes at peacekeeping, loathing ISIS and CBC — these are the things that kept Conservatives warm at night when Harper was governing not very conservatively. Why would they vote against them? ...
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Chris Pook on February 01, 2017, 02:31:47
Can't say as how O'Leary appeals to this Conservative. 
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: ModlrMike on February 01, 2017, 12:05:43
Perhaps a fringe candidate to make the remainder appear more centrist.


Wait, haven't we seen that somewhere before?
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Remius on February 01, 2017, 14:41:34
I'll be curious to see how Kelly Leitch and Stephen Blais will frame their current strategy in the wake of the Quebec mosque tragedy and events in the US.  Will they be more muted and steer away from their current platforms or will they double down.

Either way Mad Max seems to be winning the fundraising race (although we haven't confirmed Kevin O'Leary's total to date since he joined the race)
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: ballz on February 02, 2017, 19:23:29
I'll be curious to see how Kelly Leitch and Stephen Blais will frame their current strategy in the wake of the Quebec mosque tragedy and events in the US.  Will they be more muted and steer away from their current platforms or will they double down.

Either way Mad Max seems to be winning the fundraising race (although we haven't confirmed Kevin O'Leary's total to date since he joined the race)

The numbers tell us much more than just dollars...

Max has more donors than Leitch, Scheer, and O'Toole combined (they are #2, #3, and #4 in number of donors). The average donation of each donor is more than half that of Scheer, O'Toole, Chong, and Raitt. The width and depth of his support surpasses everyone of a known quantity... of course, O'Leary remains the unknown for the next little while until some data can be collected.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: ModlrMike on February 02, 2017, 21:34:27
Mr Bernier's latest policy: Equalization is Unfair (http://www.630ched.com/2017/02/02/maxime-bernier-calls-for-changes-to-equalization-formula/). Although the tone is very "let's make Quebec better", I can't see how this plays well in QC.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Remius on February 03, 2017, 13:41:20
Well some trouble for Dr. Leitch.

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/kellie-leitch-s-campaign-manager-nick-kouvalis-resigns-1.3268975
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: milnews.ca on February 06, 2017, 08:01:59
Different points on the conservative continuum/spectrum (http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/conservative-immigration-policy-leitch-mckay-1.3968085) ...
Quote
Peter Mackay, one of the people who helped create the modern Conservative Party, says positions on immigration from one leadership candidate may damage the party's brand.

MacKay was asked what he thought about Kellie Leitch's policy to screen immigrants for what she terms "Canadian values."

The question of what are Canadian values is far from clear, MacKay said.

"When you drill down into that type of discussion the first question that comes to mind is, who makes that decision? And what is that bar going to be? And how possibly could somebody coming from a country that has no understanding of what it means to be a Canadian meet that criteria?," MacKay told CBC ...
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Humphrey Bogart on February 06, 2017, 08:15:59
Any Conservative leader, if they're smart, should stay the heck away from any policy to do with immigration, religion, etc and focus their 100% attention running a campaign based on a strong economic platform. 
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Underway on February 06, 2017, 12:12:14
Any Conservative leader, if they're smart, should stay the heck away from any policy to do with immigration, religion, etc and focus their 100% attention running a campaign based on a strong economic platform.

So libertarian then?  The guns, god and gays vote is a massive problem that really inhibits the CPC and yet it sustains them.  So much of the active conservative members are keyed into that paradigm and are the easy ones to whip up for party funding and volunteers.  The left libertarians, libertarian and activism voters and pretty much everyone on the bottom of the political compass (https://www.politicalcompass.org/canada2015) have no home in Canada, and I think Max might be giving them something to vote for.  If I were a party member he would have my vote for sure.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Chris Pook on February 06, 2017, 15:04:40
Two thumbs up to Humphrey and Underway.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Scott on February 06, 2017, 15:46:05
Any Conservative leader, if they're smart, should stay the heck away from any policy to do with immigration, religion, etc and focus their 100% attention running a campaign based on a strong economic platform.

This. That cultural practices hotline bullshit was what really solidified my vote, a lifelong Conservative one, by the way, for the Liberals.

Peter MacKay as leader could get me thinking blue again. Leitch or O'Leary would almost ensure my vote staying with the fair haired one.

Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Remius on February 06, 2017, 16:06:17
This. That cultural practices hotline bullshit was what really solidified my vote, a lifelong Conservative one, by the way, for the Liberals.

Peter MacKay as leader could get me thinking blue again. Leitch or O'Leary would almost ensure my vote staying with the fair haired one.

Trump?  Lisa Raitt?  Trudeau is more of a dark haired type... [Xp

But yes, agreed.  I'm on the same page as you.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: jollyjacktar on February 06, 2017, 18:05:56
This. That cultural practices hotline bullshit was what really solidified my vote, a lifelong Conservative one, by the way, for the Liberals.

Peter MacKay as leader could get me thinking blue again. Leitch or O'Leary would almost ensure my vote staying with the fair haired one.

Nothing short of a serious, life altering blow to the head could ever compel me to vote for the current PM and crew.  While I wasn't a fan of the cultural practices nonsense either I felt then as I do now that Justin was not (nor ever shall be) ready.  None of the big three got my vote as MacKay wasn't on the table to consider anymore.  I like the economic sense of O'Leary far more than Trudeau.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Scott on February 06, 2017, 18:13:18
Nothing short of a serious, life altering blow to the head could ever compel me to vote for the current PM and crew.  While I wasn't a fan of the cultural practices nonsense either I felt then as I do now that Justin was not (nor ever shall be) ready.  None of the big three got my vote as MacKay wasn't on the table to consider anymore.  I like the economic sense of O'Leary far more than Trudeau.

He may never be ready, but I feel differently than you do about not voting big three, and so I had a choice to make between them. The math was simple: I felt I needed a change from Harper; I wouldnot/couldnot vote for the beard; and the Libs ran a rookie with pretty decent chops locally in peter's seat. Made it pretty easy.

Much as it pisses some of the angrier Conservatives off, the next Conservative leader will not be trying to woo them. It's voters like you and I they want. And Angry Earl types ain't gonna get me away from Shiny Pony and his dreamy hair.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: jollyjacktar on February 06, 2017, 19:05:20
He may never be ready, but I feel differently than you do about not voting big three, and so I had a choice to make between them. The math was simple: I felt I needed a change from Harper; I wouldnot/couldnot vote for the beard; and the Libs ran a rookie with pretty decent chops locally in peter's seat. Made it pretty easy.

Much as it pisses some of the angrier Conservatives off, the next Conservative leader will not be trying to woo them. It's voters like you and I they want. And Angry Earl types ain't gonna get me away from Shiny Pony and his dreamy hair.

I agree about the beard, totally.  Quite frankly, I had had enough of all the big three's crap and they were getting SFA from me.  I am in Nottawa right now so could not be back home to see the new models in person.  Mind you, I am at the end of Central Nova's territory before it turns into the Eastern Shore/Sackville (thanks, Paul Martin, for that) and as such the candidates don't come down or give a crap for us (almost) city folks there.  I get it, it's not Pictou or Stellarton etc.  Anyhow, I saw there was an independent running and they got my vote, that way I still was able to vote and frig off the big three at the same time.  And hopefully the independent got enough votes from guys like me to get their deposit back as I knew there was no way they were getting the seat.  Seeing as how the Liberals have conveniently forgotten already who gave them the Atlantic Provinces, guys like you, Scott, and are treating them with the same indifference as Harper did at the end, I suppose there is no change at all.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Scott on February 07, 2017, 06:31:32
Status quo. I am not hurt by anyone ignoring me ;D

I've since moved to Dominic LeBlanc's riding and adopting a wait and see approach. If the Conservatives run someone of substance there, and they have a leader I can take seriously, I would consider throwing my vote back to them.

Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Brad Sallows on February 10, 2017, 13:55:16
Repeating what's been written here many times, but the CPC really needs to get the message: figure out how to satisfy the socon base with respect to religious freedom while making it clear that imposition of religions and religious imperatives (any) across religious boundaries (any) is not going anywhere, and concentrate on engaging the socon base and the moderate right and centre voters with economic development issues.

Also: water under the bridge (prior resolved issues and programs) that have the support of most of the Orange and Red factions probably have 60+% support of the general population, including support inside the Blue faction.  In each case that's at least a weak concensus that shouldn't be disturbed unnecessarily or without preparing the social/civil ground (via incrementalism, not shock).

I often wonder that so many of them (prominent CPC members) can be so ham-fisted and thick-tongued in the public sphere; I can only conclude that they are so deeply inside small bubbles that they really do not understand that some of what they express is deeply offensive even to people who want to support the CPC.

I suspect that most people want to focus on family, friends, communities, and - perhaps - province.  The people who want a federal government with broad and deep powers and responsibilities are not even a large minority; they are merely loud and persistent.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Scott on February 10, 2017, 14:23:56
I often wonder that so many of them (prominent CPC members) can be so ham-fisted and thick-tongued in the public sphere; I can only conclude that they are so deeply inside small bubbles that they really do not understand that some of what they express is deeply offensive even to people who want to support the CPC.

Oh boy, this is what I have been trying to get out there (here) for some time.

I've said it before, but it bears repeating: I do not find the majority of the CPC supporters, or Liberal detractors, here to be even mildly offensive. But the few that are always yelling or just being plain nasty have the effect of completely ruining it for me.

Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Lumber on February 10, 2017, 14:46:59
I suspect that most people want to focus on family, friends, communities, and - perhaps - province.  The people who want a federal government with broad and deep powers and responsibilities are not even a large minority; they are merely loud and persistent.

I'm neither loud nor persistent, but I like the idea of a strong, deep and centralized government.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Brad Sallows on February 10, 2017, 23:14:42
I dislike centralization for what I think is a sufficient condition: it's inefficient.  Different provinces, regions, municipalities, are all going to have different problems, and different priorities for resolving them.  Compelling everyone into one-size-for-all solutions benefits those for whom the problems were a priority, and is an opportunity cost against those for whom the problems were not a priority.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: cavalryman on February 10, 2017, 23:26:08
I'm neither loud nor persistent, but I like the idea of a strong, deep and centralized government.
So did Trudeau Sr.  I'm not sure it's worked out all that well for Canada ever since.  Besides, strong, deep and centralized governments aren't historically known to govern with a light touch.  Au contraire.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Jed on February 11, 2017, 00:25:08
I'm neither loud nor persistent, but I like the idea of a strong, deep and centralized government.

You must be in the minority of a minority I guess.  [:D
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on February 11, 2017, 02:16:38
...
I often wonder that so many of them (prominent CPC members) can be so ham-fisted and thick-tongued in the public sphere; I can only conclude that they are so deeply inside small bubbles that they really do not understand that some of what they express is deeply offensive even to people who want to support the CPC.

         Bingo!

I suspect that most people want to focus on family, friends, communities, and - perhaps - province.  The people who want a federal government with broad and deep powers and responsibilities are not even a large minority; they are merely loud and persistent.

Actually what I want, and perhaps I'm not a "typical" or "mainstream" Conservative, and I am certainly no kind of social-conservative, at all, in fact I self describe as a social-libertarian ~ which means that I find even a Liberal government too intrusive ~ but what I want is "a federal government with narrow but deep powers and responsibilities."
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: milnews.ca on February 11, 2017, 08:23:26
... the few that are always yelling or just being plain nasty have the effect of completely ruining it for me.
:nod:
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Lumber on February 11, 2017, 11:01:52
So did Trudeau Sr.  I'm not sure it's worked out all that well for Canada ever since.  Besides, strong, deep and centralized governments aren't historically known to govern with a light touch.  Au contraire.

I would add the word compartmentalized; I really believe in our constitutional separation of powers. However, I believe there is some room for improvement and expansion to better determine what should be a provincial prerogative and what should be federal. It should be more clear-cut, and each level of government should have absolute control over their area. The courts can settle the overlaps as they do, but I like the idea of a Federal government who just get's crap done.



Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Chris Pook on February 11, 2017, 12:24:29
I would add the word compartmentalized; I really believe in our constitutional separation of powers. However, I believe there is some room for improvement and expansion to better determine what should be a provincial prerogative and what should be federal. It should be more clear-cut, and each level of government should have absolute control over their area. The courts can settle the overlaps as they do, but I like the idea of a Federal government who just get's crap done.

Lumber - how much difference between jurisdictions will you allow?

Is it permissible for Peterborough to ban grape jelly?  Or Lethbridge to allow open carry of firearms? What Peterborough does doesn't affect Lethbridge, and vice versa.  And I go to Peterborough I should just follow the local laws.

Just to be clear - my own opinion is for the highest degree of what the EU and the Catholic Church describe as "subsidiarity" - something more honoured in the breach.  I believe that power must be granted from the bottom up.  Authority is only the authority that I accept, even when it is imposed.

Once upon a time Jean Chretien was fulminating about equalization payments because Ralph Klein was perturbed about paying while Chretien was cutting.  Chretien said - paraphrasing - he wouldn't accept having Ralph decide on writing Jean a check.  He expected to be able to either command Ralph to write the check, or from another perspective, he would allow Ralph to keep whatever money he thought Ralph required.

My sense of things is that Jean should have been getting the money that Ralph sent to him on my behalf.  If he can't make the case for the money he doesn't get it.  That, in fact is the role, at the federal level, of parliament.  If the government can't make the case for the money to the representatives of the people, it doesn't get it.

The government has no rights except those that are granted it by the electorate and, because Canada is a confederation, its component provinces.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Underway on February 11, 2017, 22:21:04
Actually what I want, and perhaps I'm not a "typical" or "mainstream" Conservative, and I am certainly no kind of social-conservative, at all, in fact I self describe as a social-libertarian ~ which means that I find even a Liberal government too intrusive ~ but what I want is "a federal government with narrow but deep powers and responsibilities."

Are you are saying is that the GoC should retrench and only worry about the things it's really responsible for in the Constitution? 
Like the postal service, the census, the military, criminal law, navigation and shipping, fishing, currency, banking, weights and measures, bankruptcy, copyrights, patents, First Nations, naturalization, foreign affairs and international trade (actually I think that's the whole list). 

Or are you thinking more specifically?
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: E.R. Campbell on February 12, 2017, 07:17:44
It's important to understand that many, many, indeed almost all of the federal encroachments into areas of constitutionally mandated provincial responsibility were made with either the full agreement of the provinces or, in some cases, at the request of the provinces.

I, too, would like to see clearly defined areas of responsibility with taxing powers and rates adjusted accordingly.

(And I appreciate that I am not answering the question ...  :nod: )
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: suffolkowner on February 12, 2017, 21:41:17
Are you are saying is that the GoC should retrench and only worry about the things it's really responsible for in the Constitution? 
Like the postal service, the census, the military, criminal law, navigation and shipping, fishing, currency, banking, weights and measures, bankruptcy, copyrights, patents, First Nations, naturalization, foreign affairs and international trade (actually I think that's the whole list). 

Or are you thinking more specifically?

So I can expect the province to stop pulling me off the highways and lakes for whatever transgression [:D
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Thucydides on February 12, 2017, 21:55:47
It's important to understand that many, many, indeed almost all of the federal encroachments into areas of constitutionally mandated provincial responsibility were made with either the full agreement of the provinces or, in some cases, at the request of the provinces.

I, too, would like to see clearly defined areas of responsibility with taxing powers and rates adjusted accordingly.

(And I appreciate that I am not answering the question ...  :nod: )

Indeed. I suspect that this sort of overreach has more negative consequences than most people imagine. Cities like London now routinely defer maintenance of roads and sewers while waiting for federal or provincial funds to magically arrive into the city coffers, generally ignoring their own mandates, or going the other way (again London) making grandiose plans like a decade long construction project to bring mass transit to London which are otherwise totally unaffordable (and in this particular case, also lacking in any real rational outside of the usual mantras of Progressives like densification and greenhouse gases).

Blurring of jurisdictional lines also results in blurring of accountability, which is probably one of the outcomes that politicians and bureaucrats welcome, being able to finger point when there are no or negative results from their actions or inactions.

And of course, regulatory and spending bloat cripples the economy as a whole (in addition to multiple overlapping programs between jurisdictional boundaries, there are plenty of overlapping programs within the various levels of government (for example, I often receive emails telling me I could be eligible for Federal small business funding from 800 different programs...).

Strip away the overlap and close down the redundant programs and departments not mandated and the savings would be in the billions to tens of billions of dollar range. Translate that into tax cuts and the average Canadian family of four, which now spends from 40-45% of their income on taxes and government fees might see that figure drop to 30-35% of their annual income. While still a lot, a reduction of that magnitude would act as a 10% raise in people's disposable incomes, which would be energizing to the economy as a whole.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: milnews.ca on February 13, 2017, 10:35:52
... Cities like London now routinely defer maintenance of roads and sewers while waiting for federal or provincial funds to magically arrive into the city coffers, generally ignoring their own mandates, or going the other way (again London) making grandiose plans ... which are otherwise totally unaffordable ...
London is not alone in this.  Another reason maintenance has been offset in the past in some places has been to keep the municipal tax rate down.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Loachman on February 13, 2017, 15:55:51
The government has no rights except those that are granted it by the electorate

Governments have no rights whatsoever, only powers.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Cdn Blackshirt on February 13, 2017, 20:05:00
Has anyone found any blogs or sites that summarize the policies of each of the candidates?

 :salute:
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: 1984 on February 13, 2017, 23:19:03
Has anyone found any blogs or sites that summarize the policies of each of the candidates?

 :salute:

Nope, but here's a page that links to each of their websites https://www.conservative.ca/leadership/en/candidates#MaximeBernier (https://www.conservative.ca/leadership/en/candidates#MaximeBernier)
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: jollyjacktar on February 26, 2017, 00:22:05
I was watching a YouTube video earlier today which has O'Leary in the lead as best suited to take out the hair, amongst potential voters (not party members) polled by Nanos and another outlet.  The talking heads were surprised by the results.  I'm in the O'Leary camp for sure.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Cdn Blackshirt on February 26, 2017, 00:29:10
I was watching a YouTube video earlier today which has O'Leary in the lead as best suited to take out the hair, amongst potential voters (not party members) polled by Nanos and another outlet.  The talking heads were surprised by the results.  I'm in the O'Leary camp for sure.


His is the only name most citizens would be able to recognize from the candidate list,  but he's genuinely unlikable and would get buried in a general election.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: jollyjacktar on February 26, 2017, 00:33:48
Maybe so, but I would like to see what happened if he got the leadership.  I want the PM to be competent not the Prom King.  We already have a pretty boy at the helm, and his steering skills suck. 
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Chris Pook on February 26, 2017, 03:05:49
I'll still go with the guy who won the Manning Centre straw poll

@MaximeBernier 32.4%
@andrewscheer 19.6%

@kevinolearytv & @MichaelChongMP tied 10.1%

@ErinOTooleMP 7.8%
@lraitt 6.1%

@KellieLeitch 5.6%

Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Cdn Blackshirt on February 26, 2017, 12:26:22
Maybe so, but I would like to see what happened if he got the leadership.  I want the PM to be competent not the Prom King.  We already have a pretty boy at the helm, and his steering skills suck.

That's not really the choice though

In reality the choice is if you want:
1.  To nominate someone who you deem to be competent who has no hope of winning and guarantees Trudeau a 2nd term so you have a great Leader of the Opposition?
2.  A potentially less competent candidate that is likable enough to become PM, and then you hope they have bench strength behind them to steer the ship?


 :salute:
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: jollyjacktar on February 26, 2017, 13:29:12
That's not really the choice though

In reality the choice is if you want:
1.  To nominate someone who you deem to be competent who has no hope of winning and guarantees Trudeau a 2nd term so you have a great Leader of the Opposition?
2.  A potentially less competent candidate that is likable enough to become PM, and then you hope they have bench strength behind them to steer the ship?



 :salute:

I am mired in quicksand with regards to this.  I don't like the hair and want to see him gone.  The usual suspects of leadership candidates don't inspire me enough to want to see them in the driver's seat either ( I am tired of the same old same old).  The outsider has turned plenty of folks off by his on screen persona as a reality star as requested by said shows that featured him.  Therefore he is deemed unpalatable, but I see him as the most competent to take care of the economy now and in the future for Canadians.  I'm afraid I am in purgatory, politically speaking.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Journeyman on February 26, 2017, 13:34:03
1.  ... be competent who has no hope of winning ...
2.  ....less competent candidate that is likable enough.....
Maybe I'm just not seeing this as sufficiently black & white (or further right & centrist), but which names would you put beside those two options?   :dunno:
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Chris Pook on February 26, 2017, 13:37:51
I am afraid that I can't see O'Leary as competent.

He strikes me as the Shopping Channel version of Trump.

Of the current field I continue to put my money on Bernier.  My second choice would be Alexander but I fear that he is forever going to be associated with a kid on a beach. O'Toole and Raitt are my third choices.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: jollyjacktar on February 26, 2017, 13:42:29
I can't get past Bernier's past issues with girlfriends who run with bikers and leaving sensitive documents laying around.  He leaves me with trust issues and concerns he lets the little head do the thinking for the big head. 
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Chris Pook on February 26, 2017, 13:53:43
Can't argue that.  It just depends on how much weight you ascribe to those types of issues.  For me, by and large, it is a relatively minor historical matter.  His current, and his past character, and positions generally have seemed consistent and genuine.  And I suspect him to be mildly disruptive - in a manner fitting for Canada.  We don't do revolutions.

The big issue for me is that believe him to be liberal, in its original sense of being tolerant and espousing freedom, not in its modern sense of espousing the cant of "liberal values".  My position is that if you can define a liberal position on anything then you are not a liberal because to be liberal is to be accepting of different opinions.

And with that - I guess I demonstrate my illiberalism....
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Journeyman on February 26, 2017, 13:54:24
.... girlfriends who run with bikers ......
You say that like it's a bad thing.   ;)
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Chris Pook on February 26, 2017, 13:57:04
You say that like it's a bad thing.   ;)

Actually I kind of liked his taste

(https://www.thestar.com/content/dam/thestar/news/canada/2008/05/08/questions_surround_berniers_former_girlfriend/maxime_bernier_and_juliecouillard.jpeg.size.custom.crop.390x650.jpg)

Any excuse....  [:D
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: jollyjacktar on February 26, 2017, 14:29:35
You say that like it's a bad thing.   ;)

When it comes to a Minister of the Crown, especially the PM, for me, yes a very bad thing.  I don't want someone who's demonstrated he lets the little head think for the big head, not at that level of responsibility.  However attractive the target.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Chief Engineer on February 26, 2017, 14:40:58
We need a female as leader if we have any chance of winning the next election from Trudeau and the only female that has a chance is not running unfortunately.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: ballz on February 26, 2017, 15:03:22
When it comes to a Minister of the Crown, especially the PM, for me, yes a very bad thing.  I don't want someone who's demonstrated he lets the little head think for the big head, not at that level of responsibility.  However attractive the target.

Couillard's relationships with people in biker gangs ended around 1999... Bernier started dating Couillard in 2007. I really cannot fathom how anyone thinks this part about biker gangs of the "Couillard Affair" matters at all. That piece of her life was almost a decade old by the time the incident occurred and its likely that neither Max nor the party (who was going to get her to run as an MP) knew anything about it.... and why would they? It was quite irrelevant 8-9 years later.

The act itself, leaving the documents at her apartment, is an actual matter of substance. He was doing work in her apartment (not out of the ordinary for someone in a long-term relationship) and f**ked up by leaving them there. He f**ked up again by asking her to destroy the documents instead of just going back and getting them himself because he obviously trusted her to do it. He trusted a woman who he was in a legitimate long-term relationship with and she burned him for it. This has happened to almost every person ever at some point. How this brings his "judgement" into question I don't really know.

What I do know is, he accepted responsibility for it and doesn't make excuses for it. To me, that tells me more good things about his character than the Couillard Affair speaks to him having bad judgement.


O'Leary has surprised me with some of the things he's said since joining the race. I thought he was rather laissez-faire but now realize he just thinks he can do big government better than everyone else. I'm not really sure why Conservatives would want a leader who wants to buy Bombardier. He should have ran for the NDP leadership based on some of the things he's said.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Good2Golf on February 26, 2017, 15:12:42
We need a female as leader if we have any chance of winning the next election from Trudeau and the only female that has a chance is not running unfortunately.

Sadly, I believe you're quite right.  Her, or Peter MacKay...

Regards
G2G
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Chief Engineer on February 26, 2017, 15:20:38
Sadly, I believe you're quite right.  Her, or Peter MacKay...

Regards
G2G

I agree Peter Mackay would have been a excellent choice.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: dapaterson on February 26, 2017, 15:31:57
Sadly, I believe you're quite right.  Her, or Peter MacKay...

She has been quite cunning - getting good experience, but then handing off to someone who will likely lose the next election, so she will be well positioned for the next leadership race.

As for Peter, my only question is which party he'd merge with this time...
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Chris Pook on February 26, 2017, 15:40:33
DAP, your red tails are trailing..  ;D

I concur with ballz entirely on Bernier. 

With respect to Rona, while I am not convinced the CPC needs a woman to beat the PM, I think he is doing an admirable job himself (Natives, Environmentalists, Civil Servants, NDP voters and Millenials are all looking pretty weak as support just now) I agree that if she were running I'd be looking at her.  But keep in mind that currently she has three advantages - nobody is running against her, everybody in the party wants her to cover over their cracks, the party is paying for her to be out and about carrying the message.  An additional advantage is the press - much derided by me and others but, none the less - the press wants somebody to beat the government with and so they are inclined to give her a bit of a pass.  After all she isn't going to actually be PM.....

On Peter MacKay - he would be a good candidate, if he was in the game.  But he isn't.

Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Good2Golf on February 26, 2017, 15:45:08
I agree Peter Mackay would have been a excellent choice.

I'd like to see him come in as a last-minute "re-join."  Smart, good-looking diverse background couple, and he plays a real sport, not just doing some photo-op fisticuffs. ;)

Regards
G2G
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: jollyjacktar on February 26, 2017, 18:18:47
I would too, but I think he's still to closely connected to the last government at the moment.  Give it some time for the association to wear off.  Had he run this past election, I fear he would have gone down to defeat regardless of his past performance.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Larry Strong on February 26, 2017, 18:36:24
Can't argue that.  It just depends on how much weight you ascribe to those types of issues.  For me, by and large, it is a relatively minor historical matter.  His current, and his past character, and positions generally have seemed consistent and genuine.  And I suspect him to be mildly disruptive - in a manner fitting for Canada.  We don't do revolutions.

The big issue for me is that believe him to be liberal, in its original sense of being tolerant and espousing freedom, not in its modern sense of espousing the cant of "liberal values".  My position is that if you can define a liberal position on anything then you are not a liberal because to be liberal is to be accepting of different opinions.

And with that - I guess I demonstrate my illiberalism....


Actually we have on more than one occasion and I see no reason why we would not again........if pushed far enough........

".......Both rebellions were motivated by frustrations with political reform. A key shared goal was responsible government, which was eventually achieved in the incidents' aftermath......"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rebellions_of_1837

https://janetajzenstat.wordpress.com/2011/02/15/canadas-revolution/


Sadly Canadian history is a vanishing subject........




Cheers
Larry
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Remius on February 26, 2017, 19:56:02

Actually we have on more than one occasion and I see no reason why we would not again........if pushed far enough........

".......Both rebellions were motivated by frustrations with political reform. A key shared goal was responsible government, which was eventually achieved in the incidents' aftermath......"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rebellions_of_1837

https://janetajzenstat.wordpress.com/2011/02/15/canadas-revolution/


Sadly Canadian history is a vanishing subject........




Cheers
Larry

The rebellions of 1837-38 are covered quite a bit in French schools.  For obvious reasons. 
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Chris Pook on February 26, 2017, 20:41:56

Actually we have on more than one occasion and I see no reason why we would not again........if pushed far enough........

".......Both rebellions were motivated by frustrations with political reform. A key shared goal was responsible government, which was eventually achieved in the incidents' aftermath......"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rebellions_of_1837

https://janetajzenstat.wordpress.com/2011/02/15/canadas-revolution/


Sadly Canadian history is a vanishing subject........




Cheers
Larry

Fair comment....  Arguably those rebellions married the Catholics and the Presbyterians (and other dissenting non-conformists) against the Anglican establishment exemplified by the Scots Episcopalian Bishop Strachan.  George Brown - of the Globe - was an evangelical Presbyterian and William Lyon MacKenzie also came from a strict Presbyterian background.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Remius on February 28, 2017, 10:59:03
Sooooo....


Anybody else see Kellie Leitch's video...

 ???
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Lightguns on February 28, 2017, 11:18:44

Actually we have on more than one occasion and I see no reason why we would not again........if pushed far enough........

".......Both rebellions were motivated by frustrations with political reform. A key shared goal was responsible government, which was eventually achieved in the incidents' aftermath......"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rebellions_of_1837

https://janetajzenstat.wordpress.com/2011/02/15/canadas-revolution/


Sadly Canadian history is a vanishing subject........




Cheers
Larry

As an aside, Fort Cumberland where Stephen Harper's ancestor helped save New Brunswick for Canada by defeating the New Brunswick and Nova Scotia patriots (or traitors, depending on your view).  Not sure that was a good thing but........
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Lightguns on February 28, 2017, 11:22:44
She has been quite cunning - getting good experience, but then handing off to someone who will likely lose the next election, so she will be well positioned for the next leadership race.

As for Peter, my only question is which party he'd merge with this time...

Pete is a political dynasty, he will not chance a loss, he will be back when winning is a sure thing.   
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Lumber on February 28, 2017, 12:13:57
Sadly, I believe you're quite right.  Her, or Peter MacKay...

Regards
G2G

Ok, I'm lost. Who is this "her" that everyone keeps referring to?
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: dapaterson on February 28, 2017, 12:31:05
Rona Ambrose, interim leader.
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Lumber on February 28, 2017, 12:52:33
Rona Ambrose, interim leader.

Ah. Thanks. Sometimes you guys can be so vague..  :P
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: jollyjacktar on February 28, 2017, 13:23:49
Ok, Ok, Ok.  I am less than impressed with Mr. O'Leary ducking in and out of the proceedings like a dog at the fair as it suits him.  You're either in and serious or you're not.  Back to being in limbo for me then. :gloomy:
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Scott on February 28, 2017, 14:09:11
Sooooo....


Anybody else see Kellie Leitch's video...

 ???

Some folks refuse to believe their horse is dead until it thunders in to the dirt. They just keep on flogging it and doubling down.

Ok, Ok, Ok.  I am less than impressed with Mr. O'Leary ducking in and out of the proceedings like a dog at the fair as it suits him.  You're either in and serious or you're not.  Back to being in limbo for me then. :gloomy:

Now I can flat out refuse to take him seriously.  :prancing:

Pete is a political dynasty, he will not chance a loss, he will be back when winning is a sure thing.   

 :nod:
Title: Re: The Next Conservative Leader
Post by: Oldgateboatdriver on February 28, 2017, 15:13:28