In reply...
"I was under the impression that the senior ADF brass really, really don't want the Japanese subs."
They don't.
"So a new minister might not be the biggest wrench thrown into the Japanese bid...?"
Yes/no/maybe/dunno. With what is many respects a new govt all this is muddier than ever.
"Was previously Minister for Human Services, which is a bigger spending portfolio than defence."
Not the sort of job that gets a lot of attention. There was a great of "Um....who?" uttered the length and breadth of the country when she got the job.