Author Topic: Brexit Vote: 51.9% leave, 48.1% stay  (Read 118049 times)

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Offline Chris Pook

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Re: Brexit Vote: 51.9% leave, 48.1% stay
« Reply #375 on: December 14, 2019, 12:22:14 »
A related good read on Boris's Red Tory "One Nation" offer

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/12/13/great-victory-red-toryism-boris-cant-take-new-voters-granted/

Quote
Well, it finally happened. The Tory Party – the party of the rich, the party of the south and the party of capital – has become the party of the North, the party of the poor and the party of labour.

The Conservatives have broken through Labour's Red Wall with working-class voters in the North, Wales and the Midlands
delivering them a huge majority.

There are two reasons for this: Jeremy Corbyn and Brexit. Together they combined to form a universal solvent that dissolved Labour support.

Brexit because it came to stand for what people who voted to leave wanted – an end to Labour insecurity, an end to cultural marginalisation and an end to being vilified and policed by woke cosmopolitans. Corbyn because he appeared to despise his own country, consort with its enemies (both foreign and domestic) and could find nothing in our history or past that was anything other than evil or sinful.

For the working-class this struck at their deep sense of honour. Their fathers and grandfathers fought and died to free the world from tyranny and for them to entertain as Prime Minister a man who so manifestly lacked any patriotism was simply unconscionable.

Then, of course, there was the Labour leader and his cadre’s virulent hostility to Jewish people. All this was accompanied by an unpleasant graduate 'woke' culture that threatened to draw the state into imposing middle-class minority ideas of sexuality, language and behaviour onto the manners and mores of ordinary people.


But it was Brexit that led the realignment of British politics. The 2016 referendum signalled the country's wish to be governed by legitimate authority, the desire to protect the population against both unrestricted migration and globalisation and addressing thereby the fears of both cultural and economic insecurity.

The Conservatives under Boris Johnson completely and wholly pivoted towards these post-liberal demands. By removing the whip from those MPs who effectively were voting Remain they demonstrated their fidelity to the leave cause – suppressed the Brexit Party vote and unified all of the leave voters behind them.

The Red Tory approach that I have long advocated – turning left on economic issues and right on cultural ones –  represented the Tory offer at this election and the targeting of working-class Labour voters beyond the party's usual well-off heartlands repeated and vindicated this blue collar path that Theresa May’s chief of staff Nick Timothy rightly first followed.

Note that turning right on social matters is not incompatible with reacting viscerally against anti-semitism.  Nor is it incompatible with 70 year old shopkeepers supporting a gay 44 year old from down the road running for a party of toffs.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/12/14/optimism-voters-want-hope-darlington-town-relishes-new-breed/

NB on the "legitimate authority" - read that as "local" - somebody you can reach by email or phone and who lives in your neck of the woods - and who understands what mean means as you mean it.  Supranational international globalism doesn't do that.

« Last Edit: December 14, 2019, 12:26:36 by Chris Pook »
"Wyrd bið ful aræd"

"If change isn’t allowed to be a process, it becomes an event." - Penny Mordaunt 10/10/2019

Offline Navy_Pete

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Re: Brexit Vote: 51.9% leave, 48.1% stay
« Reply #376 on: December 14, 2019, 13:52:40 »
That seems like a pretty biased take on it; assuming it's an editorial?  Can't read the whole thing behind the paywall.

Lots of hyperbole there, but it is true that Corbyn was massively unpopular. It was also an incredibly poorly run campaign that had ADHD messaging that was all over the place and didn't have any real theme. They had that crazy manifesto which was ambitious, but you can't campaign with a giant tome. The tories kept their message simple and stayed on point, while Labour dithered and missed all kinds of opportunities to go for a kill shot.

Seemed to parallel the recent Conservative loss here in a lot of ways, but was weird watching a group that was unelectable assume they were the most obvious choice, and just generally fall down everywhere.

Offline Eaglelord17

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Re: Brexit Vote: 51.9% leave, 48.1% stay
« Reply #377 on: December 14, 2019, 16:39:01 »
That seems like a pretty biased take on it; assuming it's an editorial?  Can't read the whole thing behind the paywall.

Lots of hyperbole there, but it is true that Corbyn was massively unpopular. It was also an incredibly poorly run campaign that had ADHD messaging that was all over the place and didn't have any real theme. They had that crazy manifesto which was ambitious, but you can't campaign with a giant tome. The tories kept their message simple and stayed on point, while Labour dithered and missed all kinds of opportunities to go for a kill shot.

Seemed to parallel the recent Conservative loss here in a lot of ways, but was weird watching a group that was unelectable assume they were the most obvious choice, and just generally fall down everywhere.

I was reading a article the other day which said that 21,500 votes was the difference between a Conservative government and the Liberal government (500 votes here to push this riding conservative, another 50 there, etc.). Our election was a lot closer than people think it was.

Offline tomahawk6

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Re: Brexit Vote: 51.9% leave, 48.1% stay
« Reply #378 on: December 14, 2019, 23:44:47 »
I was reading a article the other day which said that 21,500 votes was the difference between a Conservative government and the Liberal government (500 votes here to push this riding conservative, another 50 there, etc.). Our election was a lot closer than people think it was.

But Canada much needs a Conservative government to better work with the UK.

Offline Furniture

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Re: Brexit Vote: 51.9% leave, 48.1% stay
« Reply #379 on: December 15, 2019, 00:20:04 »
But Canada much needs a Conservative government to better work with the UK.

Canada needs a Conservative government to prevent the mass confiscation of private property for the hope of buying a few more votes in Toronto and Montreal.

Trade with the UK will happen under any smart government. We are more UK than we are anything else...

Offline Altair

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Re: Brexit Vote: 51.9% leave, 48.1% stay
« Reply #380 on: December 15, 2019, 01:24:41 »
Canada needs a Conservative government to prevent the mass confiscation of private property for the hope of buying a few more votes in Toronto and Montreal.

Trade with the UK will happen under any smart government. We are more UK than we are anything else...
Trade with the Brits is going to be tricky. Their financial services sector is going to want more canadian access. Do we want our big banks facing more competition from the Brits?  Probably not.

Meanwhile,  Canada is going to want to export more agricultural products.  Will the Brits, facing more competition and less market access to the EU want to open up their farmers to more competition?  Especially in those rural areas that mostly votes for Boris Johnson?  Unlikely.
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Offline Brad Sallows

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Re: Brexit Vote: 51.9% leave, 48.1% stay
« Reply #381 on: December 15, 2019, 03:00:00 »
It's amazing how everything has "concerns" associated with it.  I'm surprised anything gets done.
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Re: Brexit Vote: 51.9% leave, 48.1% stay
« Reply #382 on: December 15, 2019, 07:19:13 »
It's amazing how everything has "concerns" associated with it.  I'm surprised anything gets done.
That's going to happen whenever any solution appeals to less than 95% of the population, no matter what party's in power.  It's easy to do things when everyone likes them and it's good for everyone.
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Offline Chris Pook

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Re: Brexit Vote: 51.9% leave, 48.1% stay
« Reply #383 on: December 15, 2019, 12:36:20 »
The biggest fear that politicians have is of the governed discovering that the politicians don't control much of anything. 

We were communicating, trading, migrating and farming long before there were politicians (or priests) - regardless of the weather.
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Offline tomahawk6

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Re: Brexit Vote: 51.9% leave, 48.1% stay
« Reply #384 on: December 15, 2019, 16:10:26 »
With his big majority the PM should achieve his Jan. goal of BREXIT.

Offline Brihard

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Re: Brexit Vote: 51.9% leave, 48.1% stay
« Reply #385 on: December 15, 2019, 19:33:29 »
The biggest fear that politicians have is of the governed discovering that the politicians don't control much of anything. 

We were communicating, trading, migrating and farming long before there were politicians (or priests) - regardless of the weather.

The origin of political control (and bureaucracy, and organized religion with a priestly class) can be directly linked to the beginning of agriculture. While yes, there was minor and early barter trade pre-politics 'trade' in any sense that would be meaningful today isn't really something that can exist absent our various institutions.

The reality relevant today is that anything crossing borders is going to be very influenced by political actors. The statutory and regulatory system is very firmly entrenched. Disruptive political shifts aren't something that can just be ignored because it wasn't a problem in early tribal society.
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Re: Brexit Vote: 51.9% leave, 48.1% stay
« Reply #386 on: December 16, 2019, 01:06:06 »
With his big majority the PM should achieve his Jan. goal of BREXIT.

Just watch how blurry those Brexit 'lines in the sand' (or Irish Sea) get, though. As Churchill said:

'The English never draw a line without blurring it.' :)

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Offline Chris Pook

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Re: Brexit Vote: 51.9% leave, 48.1% stay
« Reply #387 on: December 17, 2019, 11:09:56 »
The origin of political control (and bureaucracy, and organized religion with a priestly class) can be directly linked to the beginning of agriculture. While yes, there was minor and early barter trade pre-politics 'trade' in any sense that would be meaningful today isn't really something that can exist absent our various institutions.

The reality relevant today is that anything crossing borders is going to be very influenced by political actors. The statutory and regulatory system is very firmly entrenched. Disruptive political shifts aren't something that can just be ignored because it wasn't a problem in early tribal society.

Your primary assumption is the concept of the "border".  The related assumption is that of the integrity of the border.   

Modern maps show the world neatly divided into nice tidy Westphalian packages with a singular capital city.  My first atlas, purchased in 1963, still showed many countries with dotted lines where borders might be and some of those dotted lines terminate in deserts and mountains distant from the sea.  There were still places on the Arabian peninsula and the Sahara where there was no recognized national structure.  Border wars.  Autonomous border regions.  National movements.  Subnational regions.  Debates over the placement of capitals.  Capital authority. Role of the city.  Urban-rural splits. Federal-Provincial-Municipal turf wars.  Supranational-International-Global-National-Regional-Tribal-Religions (traditional, political, environmental) -Local-Individual.

I would suggest that there is no consensus on any of the issues.  That there is continuing tension on all of those issues.  And that those tensions continue to put the concept as well as the placement and integrity of borders at risk.  History is not finished with us yet. Nor for that matter is Geography.  Borders are maintained by force majeure and the artificial entity known as the State.  The State proclaims a monopoly on force majeure.  That monopoly is debatable and debated.

And just for the record.  It appears from the archaeological evidence around Sanliurfa and Gobeklitepe that priests and temples arose from nomadic hunter-gatherers before agriculture.  Temples may have been originally meeting places for annual trade and partying opportunities.  7000 years before the Egyptians and the Mesopotamians and 9000 before the Romans, Greeks and Phoenicians.
« Last Edit: December 17, 2019, 11:13:29 by Chris Pook »
"Wyrd bið ful aræd"

"If change isn’t allowed to be a process, it becomes an event." - Penny Mordaunt 10/10/2019

Offline Chris Pook

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Re: Brexit Vote: 51.9% leave, 48.1% stay
« Reply #388 on: December 17, 2019, 11:19:54 »
Just watch how blurry those Brexit 'lines in the sand' (or Irish Sea) get, though. As Churchill said:

'The English never draw a line without blurring it.' :)

That is called pragmatism.  And it is why Napoleon dismissed us as a nation of shop-keepers, unfettered by principle. Groucho Marx was closer.  "I have principles.  If you don't like those I have others".

The key element is that as of a date certain none of Brussels, Geneva, the Hague or New York will be imposing terms.  London will be agreeing to terms as its parliamentarians see fit.
"Wyrd bið ful aræd"

"If change isn’t allowed to be a process, it becomes an event." - Penny Mordaunt 10/10/2019

Offline QV

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Re: Brexit Vote: 51.9% leave, 48.1% stay
« Reply #389 on: December 17, 2019, 13:22:55 »
That is called pragmatism.  And it is why Napoleon dismissed us as a nation of shop-keepers, unfettered by principle. Groucho Marx was closer.  "I have principles.  If you don't like those I have others".

The key element is that as of a date certain none of Brussels, Geneva, the Hague or New York will be imposing terms.  London will be agreeing to terms as its parliamentarians see fit.

And isn't that great!

Offline FJAG

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Re: Brexit Vote: 51.9% leave, 48.1% stay
« Reply #390 on: December 17, 2019, 16:16:00 »
...
And just for the record.  It appears from the archaeological evidence around Sanliurfa and Gobeklitepe that priests and temples arose from nomadic hunter-gatherers before agriculture.  Temples may have been originally meeting places for annual trade and partying opportunities.  7000 years before the Egyptians and the Mesopotamians and 9000 before the Romans, Greeks and Phoenicians.

I'm with you on this. Even in early family-based hunter-gatherer societies, thousands of years before agriculture, there was always a "priestly" caste be it shamans, story-tellers, medicine men, healers or elders whose role it was to keep and often enforce the entities' traditions and social norms. Their roles increased as family groups consolidated into larger social groups and tribes. Consistent with the wide variety of such hunter-gatherer societies are creation stories, and spirits or entities (whether natural or supernatural) that explained mysteries and gave examples of acceptable and non acceptable behaviour as well as setting the annual rhythm of the group, (such as moving to different hunting areas or winter quarters etc)

As societies became more complex (much of which dealt with the development of agriculture which fixed tribes etc to fixed locations rather than ranges), the structures of priest classes, soldier classes and other administrative entities and control over territories and maintenance of the tribe's underlying mythology (including religion) became much more defined and pronounced. That progress continued and grew through the consolidation of tribes into  nations and subsequently nation states.

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