Author Topic: Hurricane Harvey  (Read 10848 times)

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Offline tomahawk6

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Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #25 on: August 31, 2017, 23:19:21 »
Houston is more or less dry according to the mayor.There may or may not be fuel shortages for awhile with the refineries shut down.

https://www.yahoo.com/gma/houston-begins-assess-hurricane-harveys-trail-devastation-195004541--abc-news-topstories.html

Offline Blackadder1916

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Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #26 on: August 31, 2017, 23:27:21 »
According to the story, we haven't yet been asked to assist with personnel.  This is an observation mission only.  This actually seems like exactly the kind of thing we have the DART and 5 HUSARS for.  I'm sure we've offered that help at this point.

I can't speak to the capabilities of the HUSARs because I have no experience with that aspect of the techniques of disaster response.  DART, on the other hand, is not what we use to respond to "exactly this kind of thing".  I won't get into the "political optics reasoning" for sending a bare minimum unit in response to a foreign disaster situation, but if the government does provide some form of aid, there will likely be some legitimate humanitarian feeling behind it.

In assessing what DART (as that stand alone organisation by itself) could provide to the Harvey affected area, first let's look at what DART is designed to do.
DART
http://www.forces.gc.ca/en/operations-abroad-recurring/dart.page#details-panel-1412460546024-1

Quote
DART responsibilities

The primary responsibilities of the DART are:
•to stabilize the primary effects of the disaster in co-operation with national and regional governments and non-governmental agencies;
•to prevent the onset of secondary effects of the disaster; and
•to gain time for national and international humanitarian aid organizations to deploy to the affected area and prepare to deliver long-term recovery programs.

The DART is not designed to provide first response services, such as search and rescue or emergency trauma care. Instead, it can be useful where the capabilities of local governments and humanitarian agencies to provide primary health care and potable water are overstretched.

Typical DART tasks include:
•water purification;
•primary medical care; and
•engineering help.

While Harvey has definitely been a kick in the goolies to Texas specifically and the USA generally, by no stretch of the imagination has it rendered local, state or federal governments (or the massive private health system in Houston) incapable of providing minimum services.  It's not a third world country that was having trouble providing these services before the disaster event.

As some background, this is a description of the Canadian Military response to Katrina.  There are a few capabilities that we provided there that may be useful in this situation but none of them are included in the DART.
http://www.journal.forces.gc.ca/vol12/no3/doc/PDFeng/Scanlon-Steele-Hunsberger%20Page5462.pdf
« Last Edit: August 31, 2017, 23:30:44 by Blackadder1916 »
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Offline Thucydides

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Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #27 on: August 31, 2017, 23:30:10 »
Given that flooding is a pretty common disaster and that we not only see the results with Harvey, but have been dealing with it in places like Quebec and Calgary right here at home, isn't it about time there was a serious push to get amphibious vehicles like the Bronco or whatever else you might find in the catalogue so we have the tools to operate in these conditions?

How many more examples do we really need?
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Offline jmt18325

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Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #28 on: August 31, 2017, 23:41:40 »
I can't speak to the capabilities of the HUSARs because I have no experience with that aspect of the techniques of disaster response.  DART, on the other hand, is not what we use to respond to "exactly this kind of thing".  I won't get into the "political optics reasoning" for sending a bare minimum unit in response to a foreign disaster situation, but if the government does provide some form of aid, there will likely be some legitimate humanitarian feeling behind it.

In assessing what DART (as that stand alone organisation by itself) could provide to the Harvey affected area, first let's look at what DART is designed to do.
DART
http://www.forces.gc.ca/en/operations-abroad-recurring/dart.page#details-panel-1412460546024-1

While Harvey has definitely been a kick in the goolies to Texas specifically and the USA generally, by no stretch of the imagination has it rendered local, state or federal governments (or the massive private health system in Houston) incapable of providing minimum services.  It's not a third world country that was having trouble providing these services before the disaster event.

As some background, this is a description of the Canadian Military response to Katrina.  There are a few capabilities that we provided there that may be useful in this situation but none of them are included in the DART.
http://www.journal.forces.gc.ca/vol12/no3/doc/PDFeng/Scanlon-Steele-Hunsberger%20Page5462.pdf

Thank's for the info - I was thinking about stuff like basic medical care and safe drinking water.  I guess I didn't think it through.

HUSARs time has pretty much passed at this point.

Offline Blackadder1916

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Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #29 on: September 01, 2017, 01:05:02 »
Given that flooding is a pretty common disaster and that we not only see the results with Harvey, but have been dealing with it in places like Quebec and Calgary right here at home, isn't it about time there was a serious push to get amphibious vehicles like the Bronco or whatever else you might find in the catalogue so we have the tools to operate in these conditions?

How many more examples do we really need?

And what would we be doing with the "amphibious vehicles like the Bronco" while waiting for the wet and wild to occur?  There seems to be a tendency to try to always include a "having X capability in case of a disaster or humanitarian response" comment whenever proposing a piece of kit or to have these pieces of equipment sitting around, just in case.  It's very easy to get in that mindset, especially since it may convince the holders of the purse stings to loosen them a little because its not about kit designed to kill people.  However, we should be thinking the other way; request the equipment that is necessary to accomplish a military, war fighting mission.  If it is able to be adapted to a less violent situation, e.g. disaster response, all the better, but if not, so what.

I still remember the suggestion one of the evaluators made to me during the first Op Eval that I was involved in following commissioning.  The exercise scenario was a MAJAID in the far North (back then Edmonton also had a MAJAID responsibility) and the particular problem I was facing (as the HAO, my job was in Base Ops as the medical rep) was having enough bodies to do whatever lifting and toting of casualties/patients/bodies at the forward base (a community up North).  While there was a well developed ops plan that listed where such bodies came from (including CABC and 1CMBG units) the difficulty lay in the available airlift to get them there.  The number of seats assigned to the medical element just didn't provide room for what I thought was necessary (or what was listed as available in the ops plan).  The evaluator (a LCol MO), quietly said in my ear, "Don't worry about it, once you get on the ground, especially if it was a no duff situation, there will be volunteers galore from the locals who will want to help.  They will be even more willing to help if you're able to offer them a little payment, which you can.  As for vehicles to get around, how do you think the locals get around.  There's nothing wrong with beg, borrow or stealing, but we usually rent."
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Offline Fishbone Jones

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Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #30 on: September 01, 2017, 01:49:40 »
Sounds like things are coming together on that front.

Let's move onto a different aspect of the consequences. Are we prepared to deal with two, three, five or ten years of energy crisis? Can we survive the massive industrial slowdown or stops?

I know nothing about the state of our petroleum industry in Canada.

How fast can we ramp up production again. Have we got the logistics to transfer it?  If yes, can we transfer to a refinery that could handle our product?

Gas here, was $1.23/ litre @ 17:00 today. It was $2.63 USD/ US gal in Michigan. The state is dusting off their rationing and driving ban policies.

It's not going away soon. Have we got the capacity, us and the US, to keep our reserves up and keep North America solvent in petroleum at the levels we have presently? Would declaring it a national emergency get us self sufficient. How about a moderate price, whatever that would be, with say .75 per litre going directly to increasing petroleum infrastructure by the industry, only with non interfering oversight funded and staffed by existing government resources?

Do we risk, at our peril, not using our own cheaper product rather become totally subservient to OPEC, because, you know, they're so nice they won't try recoup all they've lost politically and  financially from us?

Should we not ramp up our coal plants etc to try take some load off petroleum? Yes we're not receiving any coal generated power, according to politicians, but I think the boilers are still staying at heated standby for emergency are they not?

I'll reserve my input until someone that knows the industry, from working within the industry can teach us (me) what we have to work with. I'm also not going to engage in any back and forth, until we at least, determine if we have the capacity for something of this magnitude. While we're dealing with hypotheticals, I'd rather not go down crazy hypotheticals that would lead us nowhere. So no Sheldon Cooper alternate universe string theory please.

Discuss?
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Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #31 on: September 01, 2017, 07:54:11 »
Fuel here in Wpg has risen 0.20/L (88.9-->107.0) in the last four days. I thought that the first 0.10/L rise was due to Harvey, but I can't help but feel that the second is nothing short of profiteering.
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Offline jmt18325

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Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #32 on: September 01, 2017, 10:16:24 »
Fuel here in Wpg has risen 0.20/L (88.9-->107.0) in the last four days. I thought that the first 0.10/L rise was due to Harvey, but I can't help but feel that the second is nothing short of profiteering.

It's certainly not profiting at the gas station level.  At 88.9, margins were non existent (1-2C a litre).  At the current price, fuel is costing about 1.00 for the stations.

Offline Brad Sallows

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Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #33 on: September 01, 2017, 13:25:58 »
>I was told the initial deluge dumped 9 trillion tons of water onto the affected area.  I can't even get my head around that volume of water inasmuch as how it would appear if in blocks.

A cube 20km each edge, if I got the arithmetic right.
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Offline Thucydides

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Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #34 on: September 01, 2017, 14:54:53 »
And what would we be doing with the "amphibious vehicles like the Bronco" while waiting for the wet and wild to occur?  There seems to be a tendency to try to always include a "having X capability in case of a disaster or humanitarian response" comment whenever proposing a piece of kit or to have these pieces of equipment sitting around, just in case.  It's very easy to get in that mindset, especially since it may convince the holders of the purse stings to loosen them a little because its not about kit designed to kill people.  However, we should be thinking the other way; request the equipment that is necessary to accomplish a military, war fighting mission.  If it is able to be adapted to a less violent situation, e.g. disaster response, all the better, but if not, so what.

Broncos can fulfill a multitude of military roles, both as fighting vehicles and logistics vehicles (and the other half of the argument is they can move over the 80% of Canadian territory which is not covered in improved roads, as well as in marginal terrain in any area of the world). So equipping the third companies of every light battalion with Broncos (like they were originally designed around being a BV-206 equipped company) minimally fulfills both the war fighting and "operations other than war" requirements.
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Offline Blackadder1916

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Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #35 on: September 01, 2017, 15:52:11 »
[
>I was told the initial deluge dumped 9 trillion tons of water onto the affected area.  I can't even get my head around that volume of water inasmuch as how it would appear if in blocks.

A cube 20km each edge, if I got the arithmetic right.

I think that the original figure may be off a little, from some of the reports I've seen, it was in the neighbourhood of 24.5 trillion "gallons" not tons.  That would put the calculation off by a factor of approximately 239 88 650 divide by, carry the 2. . . uhh, a whole shitload (239.65 US gallons in a short ton of water).  However, still a large block of water.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/08/30/harvey-has-unloaded-24-5-trillion-gallons-of-water-on-texas-and-louisiana/?utm_term=.a33c6b7f19ac
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Offline Bearpaw

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Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #36 on: September 01, 2017, 19:28:03 »
CNN(yesterday)----> 27 trillion USGal
1 cubic mile = 1.1 trillion USGal
thus 24.5 cubic miles of rain

1 cubic mile = (1.621km)^3 = 4.26 km^3

Thus 104.35 km^3 for rain water = cube of water 4.7km on each side

or

104.35 billion metric tons water

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Offline dapaterson

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Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #37 on: September 01, 2017, 19:35:37 »
Or, to use a more commonly understood term, very wet.
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Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #38 on: September 01, 2017, 20:01:21 »
From IFLScience: http://www.iflscience.com/environment/how-much-water-hurricane-harvey-dumping-houston/

Harvey has stalled over Houston so the rainfall that normally tracks over a large area is drenching a single city. By the time its over, there will be 3.8x the amount of rainfall than that of Katrina.... Absolutely insane.

Offline tomahawk6

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Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #39 on: September 02, 2017, 19:25:24 »
Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth expressed a very kind message to the folks in Texas and Louisiana. :salute:

Quote
“I was deeply saddened to learn of the loss of life and the devastation following the recent terrible floods caused by Hurricane Harvey. Prince Philip and I send our sincere condolences to the victims of this disaster, to those who have lost loved ones, and to those who have seen their homes and property destroyed. My thoughts and prayers are with those affected.”
« Last Edit: September 02, 2017, 20:07:56 by tomahawk6 »

Offline Fishbone Jones

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Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #40 on: September 03, 2017, 04:06:14 »
No bs, real question .

Has she done this previously for US hurricanes?
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Offline tomahawk6

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Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #41 on: September 03, 2017, 04:44:23 »

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Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #42 on: September 03, 2017, 13:17:34 »
Fuel here in Wpg has risen 0.20/L (88.9-->107.0) in the last four days. I thought that the first 0.10/L rise was due to Harvey, but I can't help but feel that the second is nothing short of profiteering.

Amazing how a slowdown in refining can effect the price of already refined petroleum sitting in underground storage tanks for a week before the storm hit.
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Offline BeyondTheNow

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Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #43 on: September 03, 2017, 14:08:02 »
An interesting article summing up the process of Harvey and the why's. 27 trillion gallons of rain...

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/harvey+finally+fizzles+look+what+made+nasty/14520149/story.html
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Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #44 on: September 03, 2017, 14:12:21 »
Amazing how a slowdown in refining can effect the price of already refined petroleum sitting in underground storage tanks for a week before the storm hit.
 


Even worse, the Co-op Refinery Complex in Regina supplies fuel to the Western Canada Co-op's for their gas bars. Their prices jump just like everyone else.....anyone hear of massive flooding in Regina?


Cheers
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Offline tomahawk6

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Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #45 on: September 03, 2017, 14:26:48 »
As President Obama used to say "dont let a crisis go to waste"  [lol:

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Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #46 on: September 03, 2017, 15:04:28 »
 


Even worse, the Co-op Refinery Complex in Regina supplies fuel to the Western Canada Co-op's for their gas bars. Their prices jump just like everyone else.....anyone hear of massive flooding in Regina?


Cheers
larry

The simple answer is that there is no law saying that the only place that Co-op can sell that fuel is Western Canada. If someone from the US picks up the phone and calls them saying that they want to buy a trainload of diesel and gasoline at a price point above what Co-op can get in Canada, guess where the fuel is going?

When that happens: instant shortage and price rise in Canada, too.

Either Freakonomics or SuperFreakonomics (I forget which book) did a piece on this a few years ago. Basically, nothing solves a shortage of something like high prices. It motivates new supply into the market, quickly. And it promotes the instant conservation of the scarce resource.

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Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #47 on: September 03, 2017, 15:12:17 »
As President Obama used to say "dont let a crisis go to waste"  [lol:

https://www.goodreads.com/.../717228-you-never-want-a-serious-crisis-to-go-to-wast...
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Offline jmt18325

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Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #48 on: September 03, 2017, 15:16:14 »
Amazing how a slowdown in refining can effect the price of already refined petroleum sitting in underground storage tanks for a week before the storm hit.

It's not really all that strange, actually.  The stuff in the tank is far more important when you don't know how much new stuff is coming.

Offline tomahawk6

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Re: Hurricane Harvey
« Reply #49 on: September 03, 2017, 15:17:35 »
Its hard to separate the two.