Author Topic: Canada-US Trade Relations  (Read 50727 times)

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Offline Journeyman

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Re: Canada-US Trade Relations
« Reply #50 on: June 03, 2018, 08:35:25 »
Anyone who argues that we have to choose sides has an agenda. For Trump (and his coterie of unofficial advisers) the position is that Canada must enter into a trade agreement that favors the US. The Republican party generally does not support the actions that he is taking now. American policy makers, economists, and business leaders (again in general) are of the view that Trump's actions, vis a vis Canada and Europe, are not for a legitimate purpose and are in fact counter-productive to US interests. It's not that Trump isn't a big meanie; he's playing a political game to arouse his base which is generally uninformed and unwilling to understand that the 1950's "Father Knows Best" economic structure of the US/world no longer exists and can't be brought back by nativism and protectionism.
I just wanted to emphasize this for the benefit of those who get spooked by more than one paragraph.

Offline tomahawk6

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Re: Canada-US Trade Relations
« Reply #51 on: June 03, 2018, 09:02:14 »
Its about NAFTA.There you go one sentence.

Offline Journeyman

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Re: Canada-US Trade Relations
« Reply #52 on: June 03, 2018, 09:35:18 »
Its about NAFTA. There you go, one sentence.
Ohhhh.....I thought it was a national security issue.  I have so much to learn.


Offline tomahawk6

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Re: Canada-US Trade Relations
« Reply #53 on: June 03, 2018, 10:13:56 »
Trade has always had a national security element.There have been enough wars fought over the issue.

Offline Good2Golf

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Re: Canada-US Trade Relations
« Reply #54 on: June 03, 2018, 10:56:48 »
Trade has always had a national security element.There have been enough wars fought over the issue.

Perhaps in this case, were, let's say GDLS Canada to use imported Chinese steel to make LAVs.

However, where is the product-related risk to America's national security when a Canadian subsidiary of a huge American company, as an example, uses Canadian steel to make ITAR-controlled goods that are sold only to the countries that America approves?

???

Not seeing this as anything other than a thinly, if not at all veiled use of "The Art of The Deal" to keep "the competitors" (i.e. other nations around the world) off-balance, and leverage that protectionism to reinforce/shore-up the base for the 2018 mid-terms.

:2c:

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G2G

Offline Altair

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Re: Canada-US Trade Relations
« Reply #55 on: June 03, 2018, 11:01:52 »
Perhaps in this case, were, let's say GDLS Canada to use imported Chinese steel to make LAVs.

However, where is the product-related risk to America's national security when a Canadian subsidiary of a huge American company, as an example, uses Canadian steel to make ITAR-controlled goods that are sold only to the countries that America approves?

???

Not seeing this as anything other than a thinly, if not at all veiled use of "The Art of The Deal" to keep "the competitors" (i.e. other nations around the world) off-balance, and leverage that protectionism to reinforce/shore-up the base for the 2018 mid-terms.

:2c:

Regards
G2G
Its just a funny world we live in where the president of the united states is playing nice with north Korea and hardball with canada,  Mexico and the EU.

Also amusing that they site national security as the reason for this,  while going out of their way to harm relations with their allies.
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Offline SeaKingTacco

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Re: Canada-US Trade Relations
« Reply #56 on: June 03, 2018, 11:21:55 »
It makes one wonder if, at the political level, the case for more European defence equipment purchases just got stronger?

Offline Cloud Cover

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Re: Canada-US Trade Relations
« Reply #57 on: June 03, 2018, 11:45:15 »
Let's invite China to a late summer round of Maple Flag. We can play the aggressor force. Then next year in Maple Resolve they can come back and practice bomb runs in Suffield and Wainwright. That's an example of a real national security problem.
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Offline Good2Golf

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Re: Canada-US Trade Relations
« Reply #58 on: June 03, 2018, 11:56:38 »
It makes one wonder if, at the political level, the case for more European defence equipment purchases just got stronger?

 :nod:

Especially if a company like, say Dassault, moves a production line into Canada...along with full Intellectual Property.

I honestly don't think the Administration's trade gurus fully appreciate the secondary/tertiary effects...or maybe they do, and honestly don't give a hoot?

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Offline Brad Sallows

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Re: Canada-US Trade Relations
« Reply #59 on: June 03, 2018, 13:44:01 »
Too many people are looking too deeply for a meaningful explanation.  I doubt there is one.  Trump is using foreign affairs to play domestic politics.  The tariffs sound well to some of his supporters, and the narrow benefits accrue to some of his supporters*.  I doubt he has bothered to quantify whether he has, purely among his potential supporters, made more people happy than angry.

There is one way in which I can conceive extending the explanation/excuse: Trump demonstrates that he is the person whose "offer" in negotiations amounts to not setting fire to the room everyone is standing in.  Doing this on one chosen issue might be enough to scare various parties into offering more concessions on all sorts of current and forthcoming trade negotiations.  Essentially, it is a ransom demand.

(*To recapitulate what I suppose nearly everyone who reads here knows/believes: with trade liberalization issues, net gains almost always heavily outweigh net losses and gains are widespread while losses are focused.  The losers are affected very profoundly - a complete loss of employment and any prospect for employment in a one-industry region is not meaningfully offset by a few dollars' reduction in the monthly cost of a generic basket-of-goods.  Trump at the least pretends to have those people's interests at heart; Trump's opponents basically insult them and tell them their way of life is dead and they should move on.)
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Offline tomahawk6

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Re: Canada-US Trade Relations
« Reply #60 on: June 03, 2018, 13:57:15 »
Maybe the net effect might be an increase in Canadian defense spending in exchange for the tariff to go away.The US oil production is up to 10m a day and I hope will spur more,to lessen dependence on the middle east which is a national security issue.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/31/us-oil-production-tops-10-million-barrels-a-day-for-first-time-since-1970.html
« Last Edit: June 03, 2018, 14:00:29 by tomahawk6 »

Offline Altair

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Re: Canada-US Trade Relations
« Reply #61 on: June 03, 2018, 14:03:58 »
Maybe the net effect might be an increase in Canadian defense spending in exchange for the tariff to go away.The US oil production is up to 10m a day and I hope will spur more,to lessen dependence on the middle east which is a national security issue.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/31/us-oil-production-tops-10-million-barrels-a-day-for-first-time-since-1970.html
France is reaching the 2 percent of GDP on defense spending,  Macron has a good relationship with Trump,  France got hit with the same tariffs. So I doubt it.
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Offline FJAG

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Re: Canada-US Trade Relations
« Reply #62 on: June 03, 2018, 14:23:49 »
Too many people are looking too deeply for a meaningful explanation.  I doubt there is one.  Trump is using foreign affairs to play domestic politics.  The tariffs sound well to some of his supporters, and the narrow benefits accrue to some of his supporters*.  I doubt he has bothered to quantify whether he has, purely among his potential supporters, made more people happy than angry.

There is one way in which I can conceive extending the explanation/excuse: Trump demonstrates that he is the person whose "offer" in negotiations amounts to not setting fire to the room everyone is standing in.  Doing this on one chosen issue might be enough to scare various parties into offering more concessions on all sorts of current and forthcoming trade negotiations.  Essentially, it is a ransom demand.

(*To recapitulate what I suppose nearly everyone who reads here knows/believes: with trade liberalization issues, net gains almost always heavily outweigh net losses and gains are widespread while losses are focused.  The losers are affected very profoundly - a complete loss of employment and any prospect for employment in a one-industry region is not meaningfully offset by a few dollars' reduction in the monthly cost of a generic basket-of-goods.  Trump at the least pretends to have those people's interests at heart; Trump's opponents basically insult them and tell them their way of life is dead and they should move on.)

Bingo!

 :cheers:
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Offline Colin P

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Re: Canada-US Trade Relations
« Reply #63 on: June 03, 2018, 15:01:51 »
Well the world has tolerated the same political behaviour from Russia, China and North Korea to name a few, now they are upset that the US is playing from the same deck?

Offline Good2Golf

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Re: Canada-US Trade Relations
« Reply #64 on: June 03, 2018, 15:11:58 »
Well the world has tolerated the same political behaviour from Russia, China and North Korea to name a few, now they are upset that the US is playing from the same deck?

Not saying it isn't effective, but if "just like Putin, Un and Jinping" is how you are going to do things, don't be surprised when you slide towards fractured, globally underappreciated hegemony.

The descent from the previous (arguable) high(er) ground of Statesmanship is easy, getting back up to it will be much harder.

:2c:

Regards
G2G

Offline Altair

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Re: Canada-US Trade Relations
« Reply #65 on: June 03, 2018, 15:14:16 »
Well the world has tolerated the same political behaviour from Russia, China and North Korea to name a few, now they are upset that the US is playing from the same deck?
if America wants be doing the same nonsense as Russia, north Korea and China,  I wouldn't be surprised if  American influence in the world,  the west especially,  quickly starts to wain.

Trade is one of the things that bind nations together,  expand and keep influence,  and if America wants to start to abandon the field to China and Europe,  they will suffer the consequences that comes with those moves.
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Offline Rifleman62

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Re: Canada-US Trade Relations
« Reply #66 on: June 03, 2018, 16:46:22 »
Using Veterans as a tool:

1 Feb 18: "Why are we still fighting certain veterans groups in court? Because they're asking for more than we are able to give right now," Trudeau said, answering a question from a veteran, who said he lost his leg to an improvised explosive device in Afghanistan, during a town hall meeting on Thursday evening in Edmonton.

3 Jun 18: "Canadians have served alongside Americans in two world wars and in Korea. From the beaches of Normandy to the mountains of Afghanistan, we have fought and died together."
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Offline Retired AF Guy

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Re: Canada-US Trade Relations
« Reply #67 on: June 03, 2018, 17:16:32 »
Trade is one of the things that bind nations together,  expand and keep influence,  and if America wants to start to abandon the field to China and Europe,  they will suffer the consequences that comes with those moves.

The US tried to ignore events in 1914-1917 and in the early '40s. We know how that turned out.
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Offline daftandbarmy

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Re: Canada-US Trade Relations
« Reply #68 on: June 04, 2018, 00:25:24 »
He's just doing what he said in his book:

The Art of the Deal

The book also contains an 11-step formula for business success, inspired by Norman Vincent Peale's The Power of Positive Thinking. Trump's steps are:
1.Think big
2.Protect the downside and the upside will take care of itself
3.Maximize your options
4.Know your market
5.Use your leverage
6.Enhance your location
7.Get the word out
8.Fight back
9.Deliver the goods
10.Contain the costs
11.Have fun

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump:_The_Art_of_the_Deal
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Offline MCG

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Re: Canada-US Trade Relations
« Reply #69 on: June 04, 2018, 00:32:43 »
Its about NAFTA.There you go one sentence.
No it is not.  He hit Europe in the same action. Europe has nothing to do with NAFTA; and this action has nothing to do with NAFTA.  Though, it will have consequences for NAFTA as Canada and Mexico see that Trump is not really interested in making it work.

Offline George Wallace

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Re: Canada-US Trade Relations
« Reply #70 on: June 04, 2018, 01:15:38 »
No it is not.  He hit Europe in the same action. Europe has nothing to do with NAFTA; and this action has nothing to do with NAFTA.  Though, it will have consequences for NAFTA as Canada and Mexico see that Trump is not really interested in making it work.


Or is it the other way around? 

In all seriousness, what do pay equality, gender rights, Indigenous rights, cultural exceptions, etc. have to do with Trade negotiations?  Canada has thrown those all on the table.  It would appear to me that it is Canada that is not taking this as serious as they should; and should not be trying to social engineer other nations, let alone our own. 

The failure of NAFTA does have consequences beyond North America and Mexico.
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Offline George Wallace

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Re: Canada-US Trade Relations
« Reply #71 on: June 04, 2018, 01:42:20 »
He's just doing what he said in his book:

Been saying this all along.  He makes an outrageous statement/demand.  Everyone is flabbergasted.  He comes in with an outrageously high bid/demand, and others are thrown off their feet with their expectations.  They haggle.  In the end, he lands up lowering his demand, but still lands up getting more than he expected, and everyone walks away happy with their deal.....even if in reality they were duped. 

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Offline Altair

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Re: Canada-US Trade Relations
« Reply #72 on: June 04, 2018, 08:35:14 »

Or is it the other way around? 

In all seriousness, what do pay equality, gender rights, Indigenous rights, cultural exceptions, etc. have to do with Trade negotiations?  Canada has thrown those all on the table.  It would appear to me that it is Canada that is not taking this as serious as they should; and should not be trying to social engineer other nations, let alone our own. 

The failure of NAFTA does have consequences beyond North America and Mexico.
The current sticking point is a 5 year sunset clause being in the deal, nothing about pay equality, gender rights, Indigenous rights, cultural exceptions has been mentioned as holding up any deal.

So I don't believe that's it.
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Offline Rifleman62

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Re: Canada-US Trade Relations
« Reply #73 on: June 04, 2018, 09:46:29 »
Altair:
Quote
The current sticking point is a 5 year sunset clause being in the deal, nothing about pay equality, gender rights, Indigenous rights, cultural exceptions has been mentioned as holding up any deal.

So I don't believe that's it.

According to MSM/Liberal talking points.
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Re: Canada-US Trade Relations
« Reply #74 on: June 04, 2018, 10:16:07 »
Not that I am defending Trump, but in some circles I am reading/hearing that China uses Canada to flow steel (and aluminum, i guess), by selling to Canadian companies who do minimal work with it and then re-export to the US.

What I am finding difficult is discovering if this is actually true, or just opinion.

Notwithstanding PPCLI Guys stats.

I'm sitting in the middle of the hub for tool & die and moldmaking in North America.
I had a couple of hundred shops, almost all inspected, in my area of operations working for the Ministry.
I have lots of friends that own these shops. I know many of their operations. I even know of a government project that had to replace two million bucks worth of chinese stainless, because it started rusting.

I know, for a fact, that hundreds of tons of chinese steel goes through here to the states. Raw, partially finished and finished.

I have a friend who owns a mould-try factory in China. Most molds coming from China go through his factory before export. They transship through Canada to the States. Almost every company here has sister operations in the States where molds and material are shipped back and forth over our border here. Which is one reason even GOP shop owners are screaming at Trump. They know chinese steel is flowing in cheaply and they don't want to lose that edge.
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