Author Topic: Is the CPC about to split  (Read 11301 times)

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Offline Colin P

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Re: Is the CPC about to split
« Reply #50 on: October 04, 2018, 23:22:43 »
If he could find a way to drain some the Labour votes from the NDP, that would be very interesting...

Offline Brihard

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Re: Is the CPC about to split
« Reply #51 on: December 08, 2018, 13:17:23 »
Digging this back up, Bernier's party seems to be having some birthing pains... He was scheduled to attend a rally at Parliament Hill today against the UN Global Compact For Migration, something he's been quite vocal about in the past little while. It looks like he wisely decided to no-show. At an event where he was to be one of the most anticipated speakers, the crowd that showed up rather inevitably consisted in large part of groups like La Meute and Storm Alliance. He's going to have to contend with the fact that at least one local university chapter of his party's support bases did attend alongside those groups.

He has some very serious headwinds coming into this next year... He has chosen to be prominent on some subjects that place him squarely alongside some groups that will utterly doom him politically if he is seen or perceived to be associated with them, even if only through lack of denunciation. He's going to need to come out with something strong if he's to try to maintain some credibility as a reasonably electable contender. He's also going to have to wrestle with the reality that this ammunition is equally potent both to the left wing who merely don't want to see him get any votes, and to CPC loyalists who don't want him splitting the right and who will use this to continue to further marginalize him and his party.

This is not looking good for Bernier. However pure his intentions, he runs the real risk of whatever he does being co-opted by some pretty radical fringe types who are more than happy to align with someone they see as potentially lending them some legitimacy.
« Last Edit: December 08, 2018, 13:30:31 by Brihard »
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Offline Journeyman

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Re: Is the CPC about to split
« Reply #52 on: December 09, 2018, 08:47:55 »
….doom him politically if he is seen or perceived to be associated with them, even if only through lack of denunciation.
You mean a clear denunciation, like "very fine people, on both sides."   :whistle:
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Offline Brihard

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Re: Is the CPC about to split
« Reply #53 on: December 09, 2018, 11:17:58 »
You mean a clear denunciation, like "very fine people, on both sides."   :whistle:

Indeed. Some things go over better when you’re already elected...
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Offline Journeyman

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Re: Is the CPC about to split
« Reply #54 on: December 09, 2018, 11:32:35 »
Indeed. Some things go over better when you’re already elected...
Well, there was  some initial outcry, but it receded quickly as sufficiently lowered expectations of Presidential decorum had been established.
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Offline ballz

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Re: Is the CPC about to split
« Reply #55 on: December 09, 2018, 13:48:12 »
He's been walking a tightrope on this since it started but I was impressed by how the party organizers were able to organize while simultaneously keeping this stuff at bay. I don't think this event has any traction to be used against him as ammo, I can't even find anything on it in the news.

My fear is that of the 292 riding associations that are already set up (that's massive success in my opinion), there will be a few scoundrels who are yet to be uncovered. If those are picked up by the mainstream media and he's constantly on the defensive about how x,y,z character managed to get into his party and take on an official role, then the party will quickly be characterized in the minds of the average person.

EDIT: Corrected riding associations to an accurate number.
« Last Edit: December 09, 2018, 17:15:14 by ballz »
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Offline Brihard

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Re: Is the CPC about to split
« Reply #56 on: December 09, 2018, 14:20:26 »
He's been walking a tightrope on this since it started but I was impressed by how the party organizers were able to organize while simultaneously keeping this stuff at bay. I don't think this event has any traction to be used against him as ammo, I can't even find anything on it in the news.

My fear is that of the 280 so riding associations that are already set up (that's massive success in my opinion), there will be a few scoundrels who are yet to be uncovered. If those are picked up by the mainstream media and he's constantly on the defensive about how x,y,z character managed to get into his party and take on an official role, then the party will quickly be characterized in the minds of the average person.

Dammit. I know when you say “scoundrel” you’re thinking like Richard Spencer, but I just can’t help but associate that word with Han Solo.
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Offline dapaterson

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Re: Is the CPC about to split
« Reply #57 on: December 09, 2018, 16:41:15 »
I can't help but think of Dirty Rotten Scoundrels and Ruprecht the monkey boy...
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Offline JaredRis

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Re: Is the CPC about to split
« Reply #58 on: December 11, 2018, 06:59:15 »
Dammit. I know when you say “scoundrel” you’re thinking like Richard Spencer, but I just can’t help but associate that word with Han Solo.

You're not alone there. Han Solo was one of the greatest scoundrels of all time. The Harrison Ford's Han Solo, not the new one. haha

Offline Remius

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Re: Is the CPC about to split
« Reply #59 on: February 25, 2019, 15:41:12 »
Anyone watching the goings on with the by election today?

I'm curious to see how the PPC will do.

Apparently the CPC and PPC candidates in Burnaby South have been going at it like cats and dogs the last few weeks.

Maybe a sign of things to come.  I'll be curious to see what the PPC takes as voter percentage.

Also, James Seale, former CAF member is running in Outremont for the PPC in what is likely an uphill battle. But again, I will be interested to see if he can garner any conservative support.
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Offline Brihard

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Re: Is the CPC about to split
« Reply #60 on: February 25, 2019, 16:08:09 »
Anyone watching the goings on with the by election today?

I'm curious to see how the PPC will do.

Apparently the CPC and PPC candidates in Burnaby South have been going at it like cats and dogs the last few weeks.

Maybe a sign of things to come.  I'll be curious to see what the PPC takes as voter percentage.

Also, James Seale, former CAF member is running in Outremont for the PPC in what is likely an uphill battle. But again, I will be interested to see if he can garner any conservative support.

The PPC are a joke. I think this is going to reinforce that they're never really going to get themselves meaningfully off the starting blocks.
Pacificsm is doctrine fostered by a delusional minority and by the media, which holds forth the proposition it is entirely possible to pick up a turd by the clean end.

Offline Colin P

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Re: Is the CPC about to split
« Reply #61 on: February 25, 2019, 16:10:33 »
They might drain off some dissatisfied NDPers and Libs along with some CPC types. There is a whole lot of people out there unhappy with the current parties.

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Re: Is the CPC about to split
« Reply #62 on: February 25, 2019, 16:12:54 »
The PPC are a joke. I think this is going to reinforce that they're never really going to get themselves meaningfully off the starting blocks.

Completely concur. They're just about as relevant as the Green Party. A fringe party with a platform that only about 5% of Canadians can support, but even less vote for because they know its a throwaway vote. Canadians do not and will not ever support Libertarianism in large enough numbers to make any party like that electorally relevant.

Offline Chris Pook

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Re: Is the CPC about to split
« Reply #63 on: February 25, 2019, 18:44:44 »
I'm disinclined to say Never.

Something of a thread: Aberhart, Manning, Caouette, vander Zalm, Manning, Harper.  Bernier?













Edit: Sorry for the outsize vander Zalm mugshot. 

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Re: Is the CPC about to split
« Reply #64 on: February 25, 2019, 19:16:56 »
I'm disinclined to say Never.

Something of a thread: Aberhart, Manning, Caouette, vander Zalm, Manning, Harper.  Bernier?



Edit: Sorry for the outsize vander Zalm mugshot.

Well, you needed to fit his whole head in.
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Offline Remius

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Re: Is the CPC about to split
« Reply #65 on: February 25, 2019, 20:16:28 »
I'm disinclined to say Never.

Something of a thread: Aberhart, Manning, Caouette, vander Zalm, Manning, Harper.  Bernier?













Edit: Sorry for the outsize vander Zalm mugshot.

I doubt they can get many or any seats.  It’s acting as spoiler and vote splitting on the right for the CPC that is the more likely scenario. 
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Re: Is the CPC about to split
« Reply #66 on: February 26, 2019, 01:08:29 »
Agreed on the vote splitting and seats.....

But...

That just demonstrates that there is an appetite for those types of policies.  It might be a minority appetite but an appetite none the less.

The better plan would be to continue to try and keep those votes onside (and Scheer may have let that moment pass).
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Offline Loachman

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Re: Is the CPC about to split
« Reply #67 on: February 26, 2019, 01:18:24 »
I doubt they can get many or any seats.

Neither did Reform, at first.

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Offline Remius

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Re: Is the CPC about to split
« Reply #69 on: February 26, 2019, 07:49:04 »

Very low turn out, surprise surprise.

Not much to glean from this one about the electoral mood in the country.

All three went as predicted.

Max Bernier won't have much to use in this. 

Outremont was a failure and garnered fringe support only.
Burnaby did get 10% and seemed to erode the CPC vote but he also had a candidate with some name recognition so maybe not a good indicator. 10% would be a spoiler in the next election but I doubt that this will be consistent.

No way to tell if the SNC scandal had an effect or not
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Offline Monsoon

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Re: Is the CPC about to split
« Reply #70 on: February 26, 2019, 11:40:01 »
No way to tell if the SNC scandal had an effect or not
Both the Liberals and Bernier have a lot of to be concerned about in the by-election results, although the front-runners cut as expected in all three cases. For the Liberals, the early days of the SNC scandal has certainly taken it's toll: an increase of support since the last election on the island of Montreal in the Outremont race (as expected - that's SNC country), but a very much diminished second place polling in Burnaby South and York-Simcoe.

Likewise, Bernier wasn't able to break the low single digits in Montreal (no surprise), but more importantly in a very Conservative riding in suburban Ontario.

Of course by-elections don't mean very much by themselves, except in relation to what the various parties were trying to do: in Burnaby South, the Liberals and Conservatives were keeping their powder dry to prevent Singh from losing and being replaced by someone more effective as NDP leader. That left the field open for Bernier to try to make a demonstration of momentum and the best he could manage was 10%. Likewise, the Conservatives weren't trying at all in Outremont but still handily out-polled Bernier. And the Liberals very much wanted to be able to show support in a Conservative Ontario riding and came up short.

My read is that Bernier is a spent force expect as a spoiler in Quebec, the NDP has nowhere to go but up, the Conservatives are looking healthy, and the Liberals are stronger in Quebec but hurting everywhere else.

Offline Remius

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Re: Is the CPC about to split
« Reply #71 on: February 26, 2019, 11:55:56 »
Both the Liberals and Bernier have a lot of to be concerned about in the by-election results, although the front-runners cut as expected in all three cases. For the Liberals, the early days of the SNC scandal has certainly taken it's toll: an increase of support since the last election on the island of Montreal in the Outremont race (as expected - that's SNC country), but a very much diminished second place polling in Burnaby South and York-Simcoe.

Likewise, Bernier wasn't able to break the low single digits in Montreal (no surprise), but more importantly in a very Conservative riding in suburban Ontario.

Of course by-elections don't mean very much by themselves, except in relation to what the various parties were trying to do: in Burnaby South, the Liberals and Conservatives were keeping their powder dry to prevent Singh from losing and being replaced by someone more effective as NDP leader. That left the field open for Bernier to try to make a demonstration of momentum and the best he could manage was 10%. Likewise, the Conservatives weren't trying at all in Outremont but still handily out-polled Bernier. And the Liberals very much wanted to be able to show support in a Conservative Ontario riding and came up short.

My read is that Bernier is a spent force expect as a spoiler in Quebec, the NDP has nowhere to go but up, the Conservatives are looking healthy, and the Liberals are stronger in Quebec but hurting everywhere else.

You and I must be looking at different info.

1) the conservatives are trying very hard to make inroads in Quebec.  they performed worse than the green party in Outremont and 7% of the vote over the PPC's 3.5% is hardly what I would call handily out polling them.

2) 10% vote share taken from the CPC in Burnaby is what left them in third place.  If Bernier manages 5-10% in all ridings next election the Liberals will come up the middle in key contested ridings where they hope to make gains.

3) Simcoe-York was a given.  CPC was going to win.

Mixed results offering no clear view.  the Liberals gained a seat, NDP lost one and CPC remained status quo. 
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Offline ballz

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Re: Is the CPC about to split
« Reply #72 on: February 26, 2019, 22:22:06 »
The PPC are a joke. I think this is going to reinforce that they're never really going to get themselves meaningfully off the starting blocks.

I don't know how much more "meaningfully off the starting blocks" they could already be? Is there any examples in Canadian history where a party started off this strong?

The Reform Party is obviously the measuring stick for the PPC. They were in a different era which lacked the kind of connectivity we have today, so comparisons are crap shoots at best. But, one year after they started they went into the 1988 election with only 72 candidates and only won 2% of the popular vote nationally. You could extrapolate that and say if they ran 295 candidates (a full slate at the time) they'd have taken 8%, but that'd be wrong as they had zero support in Quebec and many other places. In 1993, largely due to disappointment with the Mulroney PCs, they suddenly had a breakout winning 52 seats with only 18.7% of the popular vote.

Picture this...
2019. PPC pulls in 8-10% of the popular vote, only winning 1 or 2 seats. Andrew Scheer squeeks out a minority due to everyone being so sick of Justin Trudeau.

2020 - 2022 /2023. Liberals elect whoever as leader. Scheer continues trying to pander to different groups and has a hard time taking a principled conservative stance out of political pressure to stay in government. Conservatives across the country grow tired. They wanted in government to get Conservative policies and instead all they get is the same LibCon tripe, handouts to big corporations and deficit spending, etc. PPC, meanwhile, continues its principled message for 2-3 years. There's no more boogeyman left (Trudeau Jr) to rally against, as the CPC is in power and yet CPC voters are still disappointed.

2023. The CPC is defeated in the House. An election is called. Those tired of the CPC no longer feel like their only other option is Liberals, and there's no boogeyman for the CPC to use as a scapegoat, hell, they've become the boogeyman. Many of the disenfranchised voters leaving the CPC tent throw their vote behind Maxime Bernier and the PPC (who they've heard the same consistent message from now for 5-6 years) and the PPC takes 18-20% of the popular vote.

It's hardly an unbelievable plot given that it's already happened before.



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Re: Is the CPC about to split
« Reply #73 on: February 26, 2019, 23:25:18 »
That's a hyper-specific crystal ball you got there. Swiss made? Tisot or Rolex maybe?
Apparently, a "USUAL SUSPECT"

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 Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and start slitting throats

Offline daftandbarmy

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Re: Is the CPC about to split
« Reply #74 on: February 26, 2019, 23:31:27 »
Very low turn out, surprise surprise.

Not much to glean from this one about the electoral mood in the country.

All three went as predicted.

Max Bernier won't have much to use in this. 

Outremont was a failure and garnered fringe support only.
Burnaby did get 10% and seemed to erode the CPC vote but he also had a candidate with some name recognition so maybe not a good indicator. 10% would be a spoiler in the next election but I doubt that this will be consistent.

No way to tell if the SNC scandal had an effect or not

The people in BC are generally voted/ referendumed out based on the-more-crazy-than-normal political situation here. It will likely be different East of the Rockies, where 90% of Canadian voters live....
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