Author Topic: Run Up to Election 2019  (Read 8658 times)

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Offline milnews.ca

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Re: Run Up to Election 2019
« Reply #50 on: March 13, 2019, 10:43:17 »
From another thread ...
March 19: Federal budget with some nifty new things.

March 26: "To execute this agenda to support and build the middle class, we are returning to the people for a fresh mandate"

May 14: The Running of the Reptiles.


This prediction, plus $2, will get you a large double-double at Timmies.
This, from an English-language Montreal weekly, shared with the usual Copyright Act "fair dealings" caveat (highlights mine)...
Quote
Is Justin Trudeau really relaxing in Florida this week to recharge his batteries and forget about the SNC Lavalin  scandal? Or is he getting ready to hit the road for a re-election campaign?

Several good sources tell me that Trudeau will soon pull the trigger on an early May election. It makes a lot of sense. He cannot have this story  follow him for the next six months. So after his party tables a good news budget, he will tell Canadians that he did the right thing by asking Jody Wilson-Raybould, the Minister of Justice and Attorney General at the time, to intervene in an ongoing criminal prosecution case against SNC Lavalin. He wanted to save jobs and if the opposition has a problem with that he will let the people decide.

Several suppliers who are called upon by candidates in   federal elections have told me they were contacted already to  be prepared to  start printing material soon for a May vote. This  would catch the  opposition  off guard. The Tories  do not have all of their candidates (plus they have Maxim Bernier set to split votes in different ridings), the NDP are a mess and the Bloc Québecois are just getting to know their new leader.

Trudeau will clearly dump the disloyal Wilson-Raybould and Jane Philpott. The Tories  would be wise to recruit them.

It is a calculated gamble, but one that could give Trudeau another four years in office.
Caveat lector and all that, but if true & represented accurately, the second highlight seems far more indicative/predictive than the first ... :pop:
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Offline Remius

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Re: Run Up to Election 2019
« Reply #51 on: March 13, 2019, 11:29:08 »
And the Admiral Norman trial won't be happening in may as opposed to the fall where all of this will get drudged up again. 


Also, equally important to note is that an early snap election would dissolve parliament and end all House business including committees.  Like say, oh, the justice committee...


http://www.ourcommons.ca/MarleauMontpetit/DocumentViewer.aspx?Sec=Ch08&Seq=7
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Re: Run Up to Election 2019
« Reply #52 on: March 13, 2019, 11:40:13 »
And the Admiral Norman trial won't be happening in may as opposed to the fall where all of this will get drudged up again. 
Don't know about that*, but ...
Also, equally important to note is that an early snap election would dissolve parliament and end all House business including committees.  Like say, oh, the justice committee...

http://www.ourcommons.ca/MarleauMontpetit/DocumentViewer.aspx?Sec=Ch08&Seq=7
... that is an intriguing reminder  ;D

* -- ... although this is an interesting take on the whole fracas & possible impact on the trial:
Quote
The looming trial of Vice-Admiral Mark Norman and his defence team’s allegations of political interference in the case could push swing voters away from Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party, says one pollster, by shoring up a perception created by the SNC-Lavalin scandal that Mr. Trudeau’s team likes to meddle where it shouldn’t to help out big business.

Some current and former Liberal insiders and government officials are speculating that the government may wish for the prosecution of Vice-Admiral Norman on breach of trust charges to be dropped. However, one Ottawa lawyer with experience representing clients in the government and military says the government wouldn’t dare to direct the public prosecutor to drop the charges.

“At the moment, when the entire legal system is under not only a magnifying glass, a microscope, there’s no bloody way anybody who is anybody within the political regime would dare even to get anywhere close to it,” said Michel Drapeau, a lawyer and former colonel in the Canadian Armed Forces, who is not involved in the Norman case but regularly represents Canadian civil servants and military members ...
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Re: Run Up to Election 2019
« Reply #53 on: March 13, 2019, 12:32:22 »
Nor will there be an Ethics Commissioner sticking his unwelcome snout into the affairs of Cabinet, the PMO and the PCO now that Conflict of Interest is on the table.

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Re: Run Up to Election 2019
« Reply #54 on: March 13, 2019, 12:46:08 »
Nor will there be an Ethics Commissioner sticking his unwelcome snout into the affairs of Cabinet, the PMO and the PCO now that Conflict of Interest is on the table.
His staff can still investigate/probe, though, according to this ...
Quote
...  all normal operations of the commissioner’s office will continue in Dion’s absence, including gathering information for any “ongoing investigations.” ...
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Re: Run Up to Election 2019
« Reply #55 on: March 13, 2019, 12:54:21 »
Yes I read that too, but I doubt they will do very much without direction.

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Re: Run Up to Election 2019
« Reply #56 on: March 13, 2019, 13:07:48 »
Yes I read that too, but I doubt they will do very much without direction.
Maybe, but if an investigation is under way, one would think they'd have their orders, at least in general terms, like if an ombudsman is out of commission.
« Last Edit: March 13, 2019, 13:13:04 by milnews.ca »
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Re: Run Up to Election 2019
« Reply #57 on: March 13, 2019, 13:36:04 »
I saw one report the Ethics Commissioner is out for surgery and expects to be back shortly. You would think there was an Acting Ethics Commissioner who has all the authority/sign off ability.

Six Months to investigate.

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Re: Run Up to Election 2019
« Reply #58 on: March 13, 2019, 13:38:48 »
Thanks for the update R62!
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Re: Run Up to Election 2019
« Reply #59 on: March 13, 2019, 15:49:04 »
Something else that gets buried if he calls for a May election?
Corruption in politics doesn't scare me.
What scares me is how comfortable people are doing nothing about it.

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Re: Run Up to Election 2019
« Reply #60 on: March 13, 2019, 16:55:51 »
Something else that gets buried if he calls for a May election?
If you mean the Ethics Comm'n'r probe, I stand to be corrected, but I doubt if it'll be NOT mentioned during any campaign, and I doubt the digging will stop.
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Offline Loachman

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Re: Run Up to Election 2019
« Reply #61 on: March 13, 2019, 20:42:49 »
https://www.thepostmillennial.com/the-biggest-threat-of-election-interference-comes-from-michael-wernick-not-russia/

The biggest threat of election interference comes from Michael Wernick, not Russia

by Mika Ryu Mar 12

<snip>

That being said, Wernick will serve as the head of a panel of government employees who will monitor this year's election campaign, on the lookout for fake news and foreign interference. This is even after his disastrous Justice Committee testimony, and calls from the NDP for him to be fired.

That includes what Wernick himself called the "vomitorium" of social media, which has become an important aspect of staying informed of current events in Canada.

Earlier this month, the Ministry of Democratic Institutions defended their choice not to remove Wernick from the panel, saying that they have "great confidence in the integrity of Canada's public service."

As if those facts are not troubling enough, recent events have done nothing to improve the apparent trustworthiness of the "Critical Election Incident Public Protocol Panel".

It is already hard enough to trust the government to monitor social media during an election, but it might become even harder, considering who else will be on the panel.

<snip>

Is this a man who has the calm and nerve to make thoughtful and unbiased decisions concerning the boundaries of political public discourse during an election campaign?

Do the Liberals' still have such hubris that they would expect Canadians to let this one go?

https://www.thepostmillennial.com/truth-and-reconciliation-commissioner-calls-out-trudeau-for-reconciliation-facade/

Truth and Reconciliation commissioner calls out Trudeau for reconciliation "façade"

by Travis Gladue-Beauregard Mar 12

<snip>

https://ottawacitizen.com/opinion/columnists/cohen-wilson-raybould-and-philpott-are-finished-as-liberals


Cohen: Wilson-Raybould and Philpott are finished as Liberals

Andrew Cohen
   
Updated: March 12, 2019

What do Jody Wilson-Raybould and Jane Philpott want? Where does this all go, now that they’re gone from cabinet?

Will they bring down the government of Justin Trudeau, in a very Canadian coup? Or, more likely, is this effectively the end of their short, unhappy lives as Liberals?

Justin Trudeau is responding, fitfully, and retrenching, slowly. He is not leaving. He and Gerald Butts, his former principal secretary, now offer a counter-narrative: This is a managerial problem, not a moral one. This is vanity, not virtue.

Trudeau needs a return to the status quo ante. Fast. With Parliament off this week, as it was last week, he has bought time and relief from the anger of the opposition.

<snip>

Both will run in the next election. Both will lose if their party does (learning, as every MP does, that it isn’t about them). Or, they will win and return to the back benches. Neither will be ministers again under this prime minister.

Amid the ruins, they may tell themselves that it was all worth it, that it is better to be right than in cabinet. As Liberals, though, they’re done.

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/chris-selley-for-the-ndp-in-quebec-the-dream-is-over

Chris Selley: For the NDP in Quebec, the dream is over

The nationalism to which Layton successfully appealed doesn't exist any more. What's left is simply incompatible with a Canada-wide progressive movement

Chris Selley March 12, 2019 8:28 PM EDT

<snip>

Today the governing Coalition Avenir Québec, successor to the ADQ, vows to bring in legislation that would, among other things, make it illegal for the turban-wearing Singh to work as a public school teacher.

<snip>

The problem with that is a significant chunk of the nationalist voters Singh is after in Quebec see the entire controversy - literally - as an anglophone hate-plot perpetrated by the Rest of Canada on francophone Quebecers.

<snip>

Offline Cloud Cover

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Re: Run Up to Election 2019
« Reply #62 on: March 14, 2019, 19:46:41 »
"Wheel of Misfortune"  Lol. As seen on Instagram.

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Re: Run Up to Election 2019
« Reply #63 on: March 14, 2019, 22:14:56 »
I would have expected the Liberals to wait until October to hold the election as scheduled, in the hopes that this would all blow over, so recent rumours of a May election somewhat surprised me.

The only reason to try it early, that I can see, is that they expect things to get worse. That matches their continuing efforts to suppress a second round of testimony from Jody Wilson-Raybould, and makes me curious. What is it that they truly fear? What horror lurks in the dark recesses of Liberal minds?

Snap elections can also be risky, and don't always work out in favour of the snappers.

It could already be too late for them, anyway:

https://www.campaignresearch.ca/single-post/2019/03/13/Prime-Ministers-approval-rating-plunges-in-wake-of-SNC-Lavalin-Affair

Prime Minister's approval rating plunges in wake of SNC-Lavalin Affair

March 14, 2019

Eli Yufest

In the aftermath of Jody Wilson-Raybould's testimony to the House of Commons Justice Committee, Campaign Research conducted a national public opinion poll of 1,893 Canadians to investigate their views on the upcoming federal election. A plurality (43%) believe that the government has done a bad job and should not be re-elected. Couple that with the 10% of Canadians that say the government has done a good job but it's time to give someone else a chance, and a majority of Canadians now want to see a change of government.

The country is seemingly divided along geographic lines, with Atlantic Canada and Quebec leaning Liberal (37%, 29%, respectively) and Ontario and everything West of it supporting the Conservatives. For example, the Conservatives continue to lead in seat-rich Ontario over the Liberals (40% vs. 34%) among decided voters. The Conservatives also now hold a lead in BC (30% vs. 27%). In short, the Conservatives maintain a strong lead over the Liberals with a national result of 36% vs. 30%

Justin Trudeau's personal brand and approval has taken a significant hit since the start of 2019, with a -10% decline.  Conversely, Andrew Scheer's approval rating has surpassed Trudeau's for the first time in March, since we began tracking. For the second straight month, Trudeau's disapproval score has been over 50%. Of particular concern for Trudeau is the 60% of baby boomers that disapprove of him. Turning perceptions around of this key, more-likely-to-vote demographic is of paramount importance if Trudeau will win the election later this year.

Given the SNC-Lavalin controversy, we also asked about approval ratings for Jody Wilson-Raybould. In short, she received higher approval scores than any of the three main party leaders. Overall, 45% of Canadians approve of the job she is doing as a member of parliament and former attorney general. This relatively strong score likely speaks to the believability or favourability Canadians feel towards to her.

When asked who would make the best prime minister, Canadians selected Andrew Scheer over Justin Trudeau for the first time in our tracking. This number is likely the most worrisome for Trudeau because if Scheer is now being seen as a viable substitute as prime minster, this could prove disastrous for the Liberals during the election.

<snip>

Christie Blatchford: Liberal sheep may be ready to move on from LavScan, but I'm not

I am reminded of the Gomery inquiry. Quid pro quos, greasy influence over civil servants, too much power in the PMO: It all seems awfully familiar, doesn't it?

Christie Blatchford   

March 13, 2019 8:19 PM EDT

<snip>

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Re: Run Up to Election 2019
« Reply #64 on: March 18, 2019, 14:34:09 »
CBC is reporting that the Clerk of the Privy Counsel has resigned. He stated that there is no way that he can appear impartial to the opposition parties going into a federal election.

Guess that opening monologue to the Justice Committee was not such a great idea, after all.

The body count from SNC-Lavalin keeps piling up....

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Re: Run Up to Election 2019
« Reply #65 on: March 18, 2019, 15:04:35 »
He announced that he is "retiring"...lol
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Re: Run Up to Election 2019
« Reply #66 on: March 18, 2019, 15:45:41 »
Interestingly, if Trudeau calls a snap election after the budget (expected to do so); with this letter Wernick appears to be attempting to establish clean hands and no knowledge about that. He has referenced the election several times in a resignation letter?

"Recent events have led me to conclude that I cannot serve as Clerk of
the Privy Council and Secretary to Cabinet during the upcoming election
campaign.
Therefore, I will be taking steps to retire from the public service well
before the writ of election is issued.


One of the key roles of the Privy Council Office is to be ready to assist
whichever government Canadians elect in October.
It has been my privilege to
work with the transition teams of three prime ministers. It is now apparent that
there is no path for me to have a relationship of mutual trust and respect with
the leaders of the Opposition parties. Furthermore, it is essential that during
the writ period the Clerk be seen by all political parties as an impartial arbiter of
whether serious foreign interference has occurred.


Therefore, I wish to relinquish these roles before the election. It is
essential that Canadians continue to see their world leading public service as
non-partisan and there to provide excellent services to Canadians and the
governments they elect.

The timing of my retirement is something we should discuss, as your
Government will have a busy Cabinet agenda until the end of the Parliamentary
session, and you will want to seek advice on how best to address succession.
"

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Re: Run Up to Election 2019
« Reply #67 on: March 18, 2019, 20:12:05 »
Interestingly, if Trudeau calls a snap election after the budget (expected to do so);

Source?  Other than Maxime Bernier?  Because I couldn't find one.
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Re: Run Up to Election 2019
« Reply #68 on: March 18, 2019, 20:19:08 »
Source?  Other than Maxime Bernier?  Because I couldn't find one.
One place I've seen:  this suburban Montreal weekly - while I can take or leave the unnamed political guesses, this bit of detail, if true & reported correctly, clicks for me ...
Quote
... Several suppliers who are called upon by candidates in   federal elections have told me they were contacted already to  be prepared to  start printing material soon for a May vote. This  would catch the  opposition  off guard ...
Caveat:  depending on the "material" in question, this could be Elections Canada being safe as well as possibly political folks.

I don't know if I'd be as definite as saying "expected", though.  Although someone smarter than me around these parts made a similar prediction  ;D
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Re: Run Up to Election 2019
« Reply #69 on: March 18, 2019, 20:22:27 »
The snap election claim made a run through a few online-only media outlets, but articles were pulled a few hours later. Sources likely not credible.

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Re: Run Up to Election 2019
« Reply #70 on: March 19, 2019, 07:45:41 »
In case you're interested, here's the Budget 2019 page for when it's tabled this afternoon & the Finance Canada Twitter feed for the info-machine highlights./
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Re: Run Up to Election 2019
« Reply #71 on: March 19, 2019, 20:37:55 »
New defence mentions in Budget 2019?  See attached - more also in attached excerpt.
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Re: Run Up to Election 2019
« Reply #72 on: March 20, 2019, 00:26:35 »
Wow!  Good thing we’re spending $3M on cyber security to protect critical national infrastructure - that’ll keep hackers at bay... :not-again:

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Re: Run Up to Election 2019
« Reply #73 on: March 20, 2019, 17:59:51 »
I know this is going to make me unpopular, but I unequivocally support Andrew Scheer.  Mainly for his stance on Bill C-71

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Re: Run Up to Election 2019
« Reply #74 on: March 20, 2019, 18:07:43 »
Scheer isn't pro firearms, he's pro firearm-owner votes. Big difference.
He's a lame duck that says enough to keep him out of hot water with conservative voters but nothing more.
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