Author Topic: October 2019: Turkey into Syria to Deal With Kurds  (Read 12575 times)

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Online Remius

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Re: October 2019: Turkey into Syria to Deal With Kurds
« Reply #50 on: October 11, 2019, 20:33:06 »

Not sure how I feel about this.  On one hand that guy might be dead.  On the other he may have escaped.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/jack-letts-syria-turkey-artillery-1.5319047
Optio

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Re: October 2019: Turkey into Syria to Deal With Kurds
« Reply #51 on: October 11, 2019, 20:41:46 »
A few of the latest tidbits - highlights mine ...
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“The risk of insult is the price of clarity.” -- Roy H. Williams

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Online CBH99

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Re: October 2019: Turkey into Syria to Deal With Kurds
« Reply #53 on: October 13, 2019, 01:43:33 »
Turkey...

While the situation in Syria is no doubt complicated in that various players & their proxies are all vying for influence, and the general security situation sucks...

You are deploying state-commanded armed forces into the sovereign territory of another legally recognized state without their consent.  That is literally a textbook definition of invasion. 



The invasion may be limited in scope. 

It may have the intention of simply creating a buffer zone close to your own border to better protect your border from what you perceive to be a threat.

It may not be that your intention is the conquest and pillaging of the country your invading.

It may be that the deployment is intended to be short lived, with certain objectives to be accomplished.



BUT...you are deploying military forces across the border into another legally recognized country without their permission.  It's an invasion.  (Whether you like the term or not.)


noun
noun: invasion; plural noun: invasions

    an instancen of invading a country or region with an armed force.
    "in 1546 England had to be defended from invasion"




BTW... did Turkey seriously just threaten the EU indirectly with terrorism?  If the EU calls it an invasion, then Turkey will start allowing thousands of unchecked refugees into Europe, including possible ISIS fighters currently being held in camps?  The same camps the Kurds can't control anymore, because they are busy defending themselves against this "non-invasion" of theirs? 

The same Turkey that purchased oil from ISIS, supplied them with weapons, and didn't bother to engage them militarily despite the fact that ISIS was quickly approaching their borders?  They decided, instead, to engage the Kurds - who WERE defending that territory against ISIS.


Sorry for the rant.  Just wow...

Fortune Favours the Bold...and the Smart.

Wouldn't it be nice to have some Boondock Saints kicking around?

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Offline Jarnhamar

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Re: October 2019: Turkey into Syria to Deal With Kurds
« Reply #55 on: October 13, 2019, 08:36:12 »
Sounds like ethnic cleansing.

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Re: October 2019: Turkey into Syria to Deal With Kurds
« Reply #56 on: October 13, 2019, 08:41:09 »
Sounds like ethnic cleansing.
No, no, no, no -- the Turks say they're not even fighting Kurds, so how can it be ethnic cleansing? #TurkishNewsSpeak
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Re: October 2019: Turkey into Syria to Deal With Kurds
« Reply #57 on: October 13, 2019, 15:25:26 »
Another reference map attached (from the Congressional Research Service's "Turkish Incursion into Syria: U.S. Policy Implications" dated 11 Oct 2019 - more here).

This opinion piece from the Institute for the Study of War, shared under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act ...
Quote
The United States made a deliberate choice to depart from Syria.  America will pay a heavy price for this unforced error.

The United States has lost its defeat mechanism against the Islamic State. The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) were not the original counter-terrorism partner of choice. It took years for the U.S. to realize that the SDF were the only capable partners. They will not partner with us again. This betrayal has burned that bridge to ashes. It also serves as a warning for any future counterterrorism partner to contemplate – the U.S. will not have your back in the end.

The United States will face a pan-Kurdish uprising that will further fragment an already unstable region. The Kurdish component of the SDF is part of a regional network that stretches from Syria into Turkey, Iraq, and Iran. We must expect this network to mobilize. Kurds across the region have started to protest against the atrocities taking place. Few Kurdish groups will stand by and watch genocide occur. Once the Kurds mobilize as a people, the region will never be the same. The Kurds may not have a nation, but they can stand up an armed force to be reckoned with.

The United States’ decision to withdraw from Syria has emboldened jihadists worldwide. The return of the Islamic State is now a given. The sole remaining superpower has demonstrated its lack of will to ensure their continued defeat. There is no obstacle remaining in the jihadists’ path. There will be a spike in jihadist activity, from lone wolf attacks to previously unknown groups emerging from the darkness. The global war of terror has just begun.

The United States has ceded the moral high ground. Turkish planes are bombing hospitals, refugee camps, and villages using airspace the U.S. controlled just days ago. Turkish-backed forces are executing politicians and civil activists that the U.S. encouraged. Civilians are not just caught up in the Turkish offensive, they are the targets. The U.S. is not confronting the challenges posed by those who seek to destabilize the world; the U.S. has chosen to sit on the sidelines.

The U.S. decision to leave Syria has allowed a neo-Ottoman armed force to march on the Arab world. Turkish President Erdogan is cleansing Kurdish areas to resettle millions of Syrian Arab refugees. They will oppose him for bringing neo-Ottoman invaders into Arab-ruled lands. Many Arabs blame Ottoman rule for the backwardness of their countries. Few will welcome its return.

The United States has decided not to be an indispensable world leader. The U.S. had maintained a security buffer between our NATO ally and our counterterrorism partner, and we walked away from it. These actions facilitate the re-emergence of ISIS, as we claim to lead the counter-ISIS coalition. The U.S. has pursued a maximum pressure campaign against Iran, but this decision just opened the door for them in Eastern Syria. Despite what our National Security Strategy claims, with this decision, America is no longer leading on the world stage.
« Last Edit: October 13, 2019, 15:42:45 by milnews.ca »
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Offline tomahawk6

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Re: October 2019: Turkey into Syria to Deal With Kurds
« Reply #58 on: October 13, 2019, 20:53:23 »
The President is taking alot of political heat from the Senate that he doesnt need. This decision IMO is a disaster and there may not be the means to put the genie back into the bottle. The Rurks have the S400 in place and we might have ro face Turkish patrot batteries. I am not sure about sanctions how quickly they could be in place. Maybe Trump may change policy. The Kurds now have sided with Assads government. What a mess.

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Re: October 2019: Turkey into Syria to Deal With Kurds
« Reply #59 on: October 13, 2019, 21:04:00 »
The President is taking alot of political heat from the Senate that he doesnt need. This decision IMO is a disaster and there may not be the means to put the genie back into the bottle. The Rurks have the S400 in place and we might have ro face Turkish patrot batteries. I am not sure about sanctions how quickly they could be in place. Maybe Trump may change policy. The Kurds now have sided with Assads government. What a mess.

Right. Sanctions against a NATO member. One which holds the Bosphorous strait and the key to the Black Sea. One which is a pretty key piece of real estate for supporting NATO operations in southeastern Europe and the Middle East.

Can this be cleaned up? Maybe. It would have been far less messy to simply not stomp on the bag of dog crap in the first place.
Pacificsm is doctrine fostered by a delusional minority and by the media, which holds forth the proposition it is entirely possible to pick up a turd by the clean end.

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Re: October 2019: Turkey into Syria to Deal With Kurds
« Reply #60 on: October 13, 2019, 22:08:35 »
Assad invited back into Kurd territory which will probably mean entry to Russian and Iranian forces.

https://www.stripes.com/u-s-allied-kurds-strike-deal-to-bring-assad-s-syrian-troops-back-into-kurdish-areas-1.602928

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Re: October 2019: Turkey into Syria to Deal With Kurds
« Reply #61 on: October 13, 2019, 22:13:36 »
And there's the rub...

'I have established the republic. But today it is not clear whether the form of government is a republic, a dictatorship, or personal rule.'

Mustafa Kemal Ataturk
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Re: October 2019: Turkey into Syria to Deal With Kurds
« Reply #62 on: October 14, 2019, 09:25:14 »
Some of the latest ....
“The risk of insult is the price of clarity.” -- Roy H. Williams

The words I share here are my own, not those of anyone else or anybody I may be affiliated with.

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Re: October 2019: Turkey into Syria to Deal With Kurds
« Reply #63 on: October 14, 2019, 09:29:59 »
Point:
He said, "They didn't help us in the Second World War. They didn't help us with Normandy, as an example."
Counterpoint, from Kurdish media:
"Kurdish WWII veterans: Trump wasn’t born when we fought the Nazis"
“The risk of insult is the price of clarity.” -- Roy H. Williams

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Re: October 2019: Turkey into Syria to Deal With Kurds
« Reply #64 on: October 14, 2019, 19:30:15 »
Some of the latest ...
“The risk of insult is the price of clarity.” -- Roy H. Williams

The words I share here are my own, not those of anyone else or anybody I may be affiliated with.

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Re: October 2019: Turkey into Syria to Deal With Kurds
« Reply #65 on: October 15, 2019, 09:27:54 »
Some of the latest ...
“The risk of insult is the price of clarity.” -- Roy H. Williams

The words I share here are my own, not those of anyone else or anybody I may be affiliated with.

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Re: October 2019: Turkey into Syria to Deal With Kurds
« Reply #66 on: October 15, 2019, 11:37:24 »
and how much has Canada sold to Turkey lately?

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Re: October 2019: Turkey into Syria to Deal With Kurds
« Reply #67 on: October 15, 2019, 11:54:26 »
and how much has Canada sold to Turkey lately?
Just under $116M in 2018 according to the latest figures shared this past June, most of it imaging, fire control and other electronic equipment according to the second detailed breakdown (codes here).
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Re: October 2019: Turkey into Syria to Deal With Kurds
« Reply #68 on: October 15, 2019, 12:01:04 »
Just under $116M in 2018 according to the latest figures shared this past June, most of it imaging, fire control and other electronic equipment according to the second detailed breakdown (codes here).

(Arms dealer hat on) Looks like they could use some new tanks. The M-60 is soooo 'Cold War' era :) (Arms dealer hat off).
"The most important qualification of a soldier is fortitude under fatigue and privation. Courage is only second; hardship, poverty and want are the best school for a soldier." Napoleon

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Re: October 2019: Turkey into Syria to Deal With Kurds
« Reply #69 on: October 15, 2019, 12:28:21 »
Trump wants to pull Americans out of the middle east so is withdrawing 1000 soldiers from Syria only to turn around and send 2800 soldiers to Saudi Arabia.

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Re: October 2019: Turkey into Syria to Deal With Kurds
« Reply #70 on: October 15, 2019, 13:41:21 »
There is also the potentially very scary matter of US B61 nukes at Incirlik AFB in Turkey--excerpts from major piece (further links at original0:

Quote
U.S. Reviewing Options For Pulling Nuclear Bombs Out Of Turkey, Here's How They Might Do It
The rapidly evolving crisis in Syria may prompt the U.S. to finally remove its nuclear stockpile from Turkey, a move that some say is long overdue.

The U.S. government is reportedly examining multiple plans for how it might remove approximately 50 B61 nuclear gravity bombs it keeps in ready storage at the American-operated portion of Turkey's Incirlik Air Base...

The New York Times was the first to report that officials from the U.S. State Department and the U.S. Department of Energy, the latter of which oversees the U.S. nuclear weapons stockpile, were reviewing what to do about the B61s at Incirlik. These bombs have been a particularly serious security concern, as the War Zone has highlighted in the past, after U.S.-Turkish relations began to chill following an attempted coup against Turkey's Recep Tayyip Erdogan in 2016. There continue to be completely unfounded conspiracy theories that the U.S. military was directly involved in the abortive putsch, which did involve Turkish Air Force units at Incirlik. There have been calls in Turkey since then for investigations into American military personnel and raids onto the American portions of the base to collect evidence, which you can read about more in this past War Zone piece...

The risks of a larger conflict erupting in Syria, including from inadvertent clashes between the myriad parties present in the region, is extremely high. This, combined with the artillery incident in Kobane and the general worsening of U.S.-Turkish relations, may finally be changing the security calculous with regards to keeping the B61s in Turkey.

The United States has had those weapons forward-deployed at Incirlik since the Cold War as part of a broader nuclear response plan throughout NATO. There are between 150 and 200 total B61s deployed between Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Turkey. Turkey is the only host country that is not part of the alliance's nuclear sharing agreement, which gives the other countries involved access to these weapons, in close coordination with the United States, during a crisis [emphasis added]. So, there are no aircraft actually based in Turkey that could deliver the weapons in a crisis...

It's important to note that there are a number of security measures in place that mitigates the most immediate risks to the B61s, such as someone attempting to steal one and set it off...

While we don't know what courses of action might be under consideration, any option would be a major logistical undertaking, even under the best of circumstances. The most likely plan would be to fly the bombs out as part of what is known as a Prime Nuclear Airlift Force (PNAF) operation using specifically designated U.S. Air Force C-17 Globemaster IIIs and crews trained in the movement of nuclear weapons and who are vetted under the Nuclear Weapons Personnel Reliability Assurance Program, though properly configured and crewed C-130 Hercules and C-5 Galaxy airlifters are also options, if necessary...

For safety and surety reasons, it is also highly unlikely that one aircraft would move all 50 of the bombs, adding to the complexity of the overall operation. It is possible that the U.S. military could fly the weapons to an intermediate location, such as to Aviano Air Base in Italy, which also hosts B61s, before moving them on to a final destination, as well. Unfortunately, many NATO members, even those who host nuclear weapons, are generally reluctant to be involved with them in any way publicly due to domestic political considerations, which could add to the existing complications...

"To fly them out of Incirlik would be to mark the de facto end of the Turkish-American alliance," the [NY Times] story explained. "To keep them there, though, is to perpetuate a nuclear vulnerability that should have been eliminated years ago [emphasis added]."..

It might also prompt new calls within Turkey, which is presently a member of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), to consider developing its own nuclear arsenal...

Members of the US Air Force's 62nd Airlift Wing tie down inert B83 nuclear bombs inside a C-17 during a Prime Nuclear Airlift Force inspection in 2009.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/30417/u-s-reviewing-options-for-pulling-nuclear-bombs-out-of-turkey-heres-how-they-might-do-it

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Re: October 2019: Turkey into Syria to Deal With Kurds
« Reply #71 on: October 15, 2019, 16:38:07 »
Bring those nuke's back to the US.

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Re: October 2019: Turkey into Syria to Deal With Kurds
« Reply #72 on: October 15, 2019, 16:47:17 »
Right. Sanctions against a NATO member. One which holds the Bosphorous strait and the key to the Black Sea. One which is a pretty key piece of real estate for supporting NATO operations in southeastern Europe and the Middle East.


The preamble to the NATO agreement
Quote
The Parties to this Treaty reaffirm their faith in the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations and their desire to live in peace with all peoples and all governments.
They are determined to safeguard the freedom, common heritage and civilisation of their peoples, founded on the principles of democracy, individual liberty and the rule of law. They seek to promote stability and well-being in the North Atlantic area.
They are resolved to unite their efforts for collective defence and for the preservation of peace and security. They therefore agree to this North Atlantic Treaty :
The portions in yellow are my arguments.

Essentially my argument for years was that Turkey should not be part of NATO.  They are not democratic and are not required for the security of the North Atlantic area.  Russia is a backwater with a GDP less than Canada's, a massive VD health crisis and a collapsing population. They can easily be contained by the EU even without Turkey's help. 

The Bosphorus and Black Sea are not the strategic panacea that they once were.  Kick Turkey out of NATO. They should have been evicted years ago.


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Re: October 2019: Turkey into Syria to Deal With Kurds
« Reply #73 on: October 15, 2019, 18:27:00 »

The preamble to the NATO agreementThe portions in yellow are my arguments.

Essentially my argument for years was that Turkey should not be part of NATO.  They are not democratic and are not required for the security of the North Atlantic area.  Russia is a backwater with a GDP less than Canada's, a massive VD health crisis and a collapsing population. They can easily be contained by the EU even without Turkey's help. 

The Bosphorus and Black Sea are not the strategic panacea that they once were.  Kick Turkey out of NATO. They should have been evicted years ago.

And not because, for example, they invaded another NATO country in 1974 and still occupy part of it?
"The most important qualification of a soldier is fortitude under fatigue and privation. Courage is only second; hardship, poverty and want are the best school for a soldier." Napoleon

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Re: October 2019: Turkey into Syria to Deal With Kurds
« Reply #74 on: October 15, 2019, 18:30:05 »
From someone's who's been there ...
Quote
A Newfoundland navy veteran who fought ISIS in Syria fears for Kurdish forces in the region following the withdrawal of U.S. troops.

"ISIS can see what's happening. They can see that there's been a significant shift in the situation with the Americans pulling out," former leading seaman Michael Kennedy told CBC News.

Now Turkey has free rein, he said.

"Turkey and the U.S. have had a very strained relationship over the past year with regards to this, with the Americans being in there helping the Kurds."

After Kennedy retired from the Royal Canadian Navy in 2016, the St. Lawrence native left Canada to join Kurdish forces fighting the terrorist organization in Syria.

"I went over there just to volunteer after seeing what was happening on the ground, and in our own country," he said, mentioning Canadian soldiers Nathan Cirillo and Patrice Vincent, who were killed in, respectively, Ottawa and Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu, Que., both in 2014.

"These things affected my reasoning for going there," said Kennedy.

(...)

Kennedy says the U.S. and its allies have betrayed troops that helped them defeat ISIS in the first place.

"To me it was a large stab in the back for the Kurds because they've been the main ally and ground forces fighting against ISIS since 2014," he said.

"And with the way Turkey handles its business politically, over the course of history dealing with the Kurds, there's full villages been wiped out by the Turkish army. It's upsetting."

( ... )

Kennedy said while he supports his former comrades in spirit, he can't see himself returning to Syria.

"I'm at a different point in my life where I just want some peace," he said. His family has been through a lot, he said, noting the loss of his brother and his own time in the Iraqi prison.

"I don't think right now, at this point, I would ever go back."
“The risk of insult is the price of clarity.” -- Roy H. Williams

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