Author Topic: Iraq Unravels  (Read 22717 times)

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Offline Brihard

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Re: Iraq Unravels
« Reply #250 on: January 07, 2020, 19:12:26 »
Rocket attack on al Assad airbase...

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/07/politics/rockets-us-airbase-iraq/index.html

Video on Twitter of outbound missiles from Iran. Looks like the attack is legit. Some talk of other possible missile strikes up near Erbil.

Here we go...
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Offline tomahawk6

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Re: Iraq Unravels
« Reply #251 on: January 07, 2020, 19:18:16 »
Hope everyone is safe. The President if possible should not retaliate this time.

Offline Eye In The Sky

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Re: Iraq Unravels
« Reply #252 on: January 07, 2020, 19:25:13 »
Rocket attack on al Assad airbase...

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/07/politics/rockets-us-airbase-iraq/index.html

2 for 1.  Attack on the US *officially*, with the *unofficial* aspect of maybe taking some Sunni's out.
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Offline Remius

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Re: Iraq Unravels
« Reply #253 on: January 07, 2020, 19:27:28 »
Hope everyone is safe. The President if possible should not retaliate this time.

How does he not respond?  I don’t think he has a choice now after dropping the gauntlet.

Looks like these were missiles not rockets....

Optio

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Re: Iraq Unravels
« Reply #254 on: January 07, 2020, 19:31:48 »
I bet those missiles were launched from mobile launchers setup in civilian populated areas, in the hopes that Iranian civilians get targeted. US response should be slow and deliberate to avoid civilians as much as possible.

Offline Remius

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Re: Iraq Unravels
« Reply #255 on: January 07, 2020, 19:34:11 »
I bet those missiles were launched from mobile launchers setup in civilian populated areas, in the hopes that Iranian civilians get targeted. US response should be slow and deliberate to avoid civilians as much as possible.

Or cultural sites.  Anything to shape the narrative.
Optio

Offline gryphonv

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Re: Iraq Unravels
« Reply #256 on: January 07, 2020, 19:40:01 »
I bet those missiles were launched from mobile launchers setup in civilian populated areas, in the hopes that Iranian civilians get targeted. US response should be slow and deliberate to avoid civilians as much as possible.

Good thing they have a lot of target-able sites outside of civilian areas.

US don't have to kill the exact sites that shot the missles, a bloody nose is still a bloody nose.

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Re: Iraq Unravels
« Reply #257 on: January 07, 2020, 19:48:51 »
How does he not respond?  I don’t think he has a choice now after dropping the gauntlet.
To be fair, POTUS45 doesn't have to respond within the hour - or in ways we'll hear about publicly right away.

Meanwhile ...
Quote
The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) is sharing the following information with the cybersecurity community as a primer for assisting in the protection of our Nation’s critical infrastructure in light of the current tensions between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States and Iran’s historic use of cyber offensive activities to retaliate against perceived harm

(...)

Iran has a history of leveraging asymmetric tactics to pursue national interests beyond its conventional capabilities. More recently, its use of offensive cyber operations is an extension of that doctrine. Iran has exercised its increasingly sophisticated capabilities to suppress both social and political perspectives deemed dangerous to Iran and to harm regional and international opponents.

Iranian cyber threat actors have continuously improved their offensive cyber capabilities. They continue to engage in more “conventional” activities ranging from website defacement, distributed denial of service (DDoS) attacks, and theft of personally identifiable information (PII), but they have also demonstrated a willingness to push the boundaries of their activities, which include destructive wiper malware and, potentially, cyber-enabled kinetic attacks.

The U.S. intelligence community and various private sector threat intelligence organizations have identified the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a driving force behind Iranian state-sponsored cyberattacks–either through contractors in the Iranian private sector or by the IRGC itself ...
More @ link
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Offline Jarnhamar

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Re: Iraq Unravels
« Reply #258 on: January 07, 2020, 19:57:09 »
US could always pull out of Iraq and invade Iran. Two birds with one stone.
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Offline PPCLI Guy

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Re: Iraq Unravels
« Reply #259 on: January 07, 2020, 20:04:32 »
2 for 1.  Attack on the US *officially*, with the *unofficial* aspect of maybe taking some Sunni's out.

I completely disagree with this assessment.  Iran is not trying to kill Sunnis in this particular case, and to suggest so is to misinterpret the context, and revert to mean.
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Offline Dolphin_Hunter

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Re: Iraq Unravels
« Reply #260 on: January 07, 2020, 20:06:15 »
Those members are going to be packed into crappy transient quarters in Kuwait which are not intended to handle such a large influx or amount of people. Even going to meals will probably be a logistical problem. It's going to be super horrible for whoever's stuck there IMO.

I doubt it.  That base can support a huge influx.  Better than sitting in Iraq...

Offline gryphonv

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Re: Iraq Unravels
« Reply #261 on: January 07, 2020, 20:06:57 »
I completely disagree with this assessment.  Iran is not trying to kill Sunnis in this particular case, and to suggest so is to misinterpret the context, and revert to mean.

I agree with you here, a power vacuum caused by a US withdrawal in Iraq will only serve to help Iran. 

Offline Brihard

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Re: Iraq Unravels
« Reply #262 on: January 07, 2020, 20:09:44 »
NBC’s Tehran bureau is reporting that there has been a second wave of missiles launched. I don’t know the sourcing on that; I’m only bothering to repeat it because it’s coming from non-State foreign media who are on the ground.

Sunrise is in three hours. By morning our time there will be a good damage assessment done, and they’ll probably be preparing the night’s sorties...

Frig frig frig... I hope the US can exercise restraint on this. If any Americans were harmed, I’m afraid of how much this could escalate.
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Offline Altair

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Re: Iraq Unravels
« Reply #263 on: January 07, 2020, 20:16:17 »
The irony here being that killing of the Iranian general was to prevent an imminent attack.
Someday I'll care about milpoints.

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Re: Iraq Unravels
« Reply #264 on: January 07, 2020, 20:26:43 »
NBC’s Tehran bureau is reporting that there has been a second wave of missiles launched. I don’t know the sourcing on that; I’m only bothering to repeat it because it’s coming from non-State foreign media who are on the ground.
This from IRN media* (translated via Google Translate) ...
Quote
The Tasnim , a few minutes before the start of the second wave of missile attacks. These attacks Iran, the headquarters of the American base about an hour and a half after the first attacks started.

In the first attacks, more than a dozen missiles were fired at the US base at Einless.

Public Relations of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced an official statement hours ago about the first attacks:

Bismillah al-Qasem al-Jabbarin

The Islamic Ummah is a bitter, great nation and martyr of Islamic Iran

The time has come to fulfill the promise of the sincere and with the permission of God Almighty this morning in response to the criminal and terrorist operations of the American invaders and the vengeance of the cowardly assassination and martyrdom of the heroic and sacrificial commander of the Quds Force, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Sardar Parafakhm In a successful operation called Operation Martyr Soleimani, the brave warriors of the Army Corps of Space, with the codex or Zahra, fired dozens of ground-to-ground missiles at the US-based terrorist and occupation base of the US-based al-Assad Terrorist Army, whose details subsequently Acknowledgment M. The free people of Iran and the Islamic world will come.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps congratulates this great triumph on the Islamic Ummah and the great and devoted people of Islamic Iran.

1. We warn the Great Satan, the vicious and arrogant American regime that any further misconduct or mobility and rape will face more painful and cruel responses.

2. United States governments that have surrendered their bases to the terrorist army will be warned that any territories will be subject to any form of hostile and aggressive acts against the Islamic Republic of Iran.

3. By no means do we consider the Zionist regime in these crimes separate from the American criminal regime.

4. We urge the American people to call on American troops from the region to prevent further casualties and not allow the lives of its military to be further endangered by the ever-increasing hatred of the anti-US regime.
* - Links to an archive.org version of the article, in Arabic, for those who don't want to link to IRN sites these days.  Screen capture of original in Arabic also attached as PDF
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Offline QV

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Re: Iraq Unravels
« Reply #265 on: January 07, 2020, 20:31:55 »
Hilarious how so many urge restraint from the US (here, media, elsewhere). No urging of restraint from a murderous regime? 

I hope / predict the US delivers a severe thumping, but stops short of an invasion. 

Offline Jarnhamar

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Re: Iraq Unravels
« Reply #266 on: January 07, 2020, 20:45:09 »
I doubt it.  That base can support a huge influx.  Better than sitting in Iraq...

Fair enough. The base can you're right. I could be wrong but I'm guessing Canadians from Iraq would be billeted in the Canadian camp in Kuwait and not sent to hang out in American lines on the other side of the base. From what I understand the Canadian camps not being designed to handle more than a couple dozen transients at a time but maybe we'll see some common sense prevail.

I personally think the biggest threat to coalition forces are insider attacks. I'd rather stay in Iraq in an area that's relatively known to me, carrying my gun and armor, than whatever they're probably doing in Kuwait but that's me.

As for the rocket threat I feel like it shouldn't be a surprise to anyone Iran has rockets and missles and we should have some kind of defense against it. Was Trumps big plan Iran would be too afraid of the US to retaliate?


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Offline Jarnhamar

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Re: Iraq Unravels
« Reply #267 on: January 07, 2020, 20:48:34 »
I agree with you here, a power vacuum caused by a US withdrawal in Iraq will only serve to help Iran.

Not if we withdraw from Iraq into Iran  ;)
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Offline CBH99

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Re: Iraq Unravels
« Reply #268 on: January 07, 2020, 20:49:32 »
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51028954


This went from bad to worse pretty damn quick...



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Offline Spencer100

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Re: Iraq Unravels
« Reply #269 on: January 07, 2020, 21:02:57 »
Yup, I get it.  I've been to both the likely locations they're headed to.  I also know what the SF there is like, and it was pretty easy to sleep soundly once you were inside the ring.

Maybe they'll get lucky and it will be Mongolian grill night; always worth the wait, if not there's some choices outside of the DFAC if that's their biggest worry.  I'd take that over a potential shitshow in country.   :2c:

Plus looks like they could be in the middle of a much bigger war zone.  I hope can they move out ASAP.

Trump to address the nation tonight

Offline MilEME09

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Re: Iraq Unravels
« Reply #270 on: January 07, 2020, 21:23:12 »
Plus looks like they could be in the middle of a much bigger war zone.  I hope can they move out ASAP.

Trump to address the nation tonight

The Address has been cancelled, national security was spotted leaving the white house
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Offline FJAG

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Re: Iraq Unravels
« Reply #271 on: January 07, 2020, 21:41:28 »
Hilarious how so many urge restraint from the US (here, media, elsewhere). No urging of restraint from a murderous regime? 

I hope / predict the US delivers a severe thumping, but stops short of an invasion.

With respect to you, and those who have given me negative milpoints for expressing my views against the White House strategy (or lack thereof) in this matter, what you are suggesting is trying to beat a religious ideology and regional power struggle into the ground through an antiseptic stand-off campaign of thumping through air and missile power.

That simply has never worked in the past and currently isn't working for the Saudis in Yemen. And therein lies the folly of the initial strike on Soleimani. Yes, he and Iran are the problem but, no matter how you wargame that scenario, it leads to escalation by Iran and counter escalation by the US ad infinitum which will probably draw in various other regional players. Now that the missiles are flying how long do you think Israel will be kept out of this?

For those members who have told me that my negative views of the Trump administration are "unhelpful-This is the time for the West to show some unified leadership". I ask, why should we in the way that you allude to? The Middle East certainly isn't unified. The West has been unified in their approach against Iran in the past (more than less) but couldn't resolve the problem, but merely contain it to the region. That was success in a way.

Canada didn't "unify" on Iraq War 2 and with 20/20 hindsight we were right not to jump on board. Again, with respect, the White House (and I suggest, not the US as a whole) has rejected any Western unified approach on Iran and has decided to go it alone (and without Congressional approval). What's needed is international diplomacy to get the region to resolve it's own problems which, again, are based in deeply ingrained religious schisms which are mostly stirred up by the Iranians. Any attempts to use military power, however, is doomed to failure or at the very least, will result in another long-term needless expenditure of blood and treasure.

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Online Colin P

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Re: Iraq Unravels
« Reply #272 on: January 07, 2020, 21:45:15 »
The US might be better to adopt a more Israeli like approach, hit back proportionally, without notice and without comment. If it continues, focus on pure military targets. How many military assets can Iran afford to lose? 

Offline tomahawk6

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Re: Iraq Unravels
« Reply #273 on: January 07, 2020, 21:46:47 »
Initial reports would seem to have no US casualties but some Iraq casualties. !0 missiles were shot at al assad and just a few at Irbil and one other base. Maybe they just wanted to launch but not cross the red line,so they could claim revenge taken. Also the lack of an address by POTUS might be he will wait.

I would look for ADA assets to moved into the AO. Iran is said to have 2000 short to medium range missiles so anything we send might be overwhelmed.
« Last Edit: January 07, 2020, 21:49:39 by tomahawk6 »

Offline Brad Sallows

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Re: Iraq Unravels
« Reply #274 on: January 07, 2020, 22:00:15 »
>ad infinitum

Doubtful.  Eventually, a country can be made to run out of missiles, aircraft, ships, and suffer a depletion of generals.

The fact that Iran insists on dragging Israel into everything might be a clue as to where the most bad faith lies.
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