Author Topic: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)  (Read 192432 times)

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Offline mariomike

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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #25 on: January 26, 2020, 20:53:08 »
NYC using "secret shoppers" who masquerade as infected patients to constantly test the ability of hospitals and paramedics to identify a coronavirus patient within 5 to 10 minutes of presentation.
http://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/manhattan/ny-officials-detail-ways-city-is-preparing-for-coronavirus-20200125-ithoxxpdyfddvbhib4ce4jmpvy-story.html
« Last Edit: January 26, 2020, 20:56:17 by mariomike »

Offline macarena

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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #26 on: January 27, 2020, 09:07:13 »
A grandchild asked me why a virus that allegedly originated in China be named after a Mexican beer?

Seems this chinese corona virus is a variation of former corona viruses, and the first having come from spanish spoken place. If im not wrong, corona means 'crown' in spanish. The name must have been given from the visual appearance of the virus.

And, as to provide sequence to the humour... well.. is not too soon to that grandchild to show a vastness knowledge about beer brands?  :nod:

Online Blackadder1916

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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #27 on: January 27, 2020, 11:56:19 »
. . . first having come from spanish spoken place. If im not wrong, corona means 'crown' in spanish.  . . .

It's not Spanish, it's Latin.

Not to be pedantic, (hell, of course I'm pedantic) but, the scientific naming of things is usually based on Latin so that the terms are common across all language.  Corōna is the Latin word for crown.

Don't they teach Latin and Greek in primary school anymore?  :tsktsk:
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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #28 on: January 27, 2020, 12:14:41 »

Don't they teach Latin and Greek in primary school anymore?  :tsktsk:

They don't teach any language  :not-again:
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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #29 on: January 27, 2020, 12:37:14 »
…. is not too soon to that grandchild to show a vastness knowledge about beer brands?  :nod:

I blame television.
« Last Edit: January 27, 2020, 13:51:35 by Haggis »
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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #30 on: January 27, 2020, 12:48:02 »
The death toll in China is at 80. The virus spreads during incubation so that's concerning.

https://www.foxnews.com/health/dr-oz-coronavirus-outbreak-chinese-leaders-alarming

Offline Civvymedic

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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #31 on: January 27, 2020, 13:33:38 »
I worked in the GTA as a front line Paramedic during SARS, and I still do. This one is being watched closely for many reasons obviously but particularly the way it spreads is concerning. SARS did weird things too and I remember some people were suspected of being "super spreaders" and it was living in different places for varying times. We did a good job of dealing with it through PPE, isolation, avoiding certain types of airway procedures and other work but it was tough and we lost people. Looks like we have 2 confirmed cases in the GTA, 19 suspect awaiting testing and I suspect at least another Canadian city will see cases as well. I think this time we are further ahead, especially with screening and PPE but it will get interesting.

Offline mariomike

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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #32 on: January 27, 2020, 14:13:05 »
I worked in the GTA as a front line Paramedic during SARS, and I still do.

In Toronto, during SARS, of our 850 paramedics, we had 1,166 potential SARS exposures.

Not sure if you were quarantined ( many of us were ), but if you don't mind me asking, did / does your municipality have this for their paramedics?
https://army.ca/forums/index.php/topic,131801.msg1595644.html#msg1595644

I retired a long time ago, but it is still in effect in TO.

Good luck with coronavirus, and stay safe!


 
« Last Edit: January 27, 2020, 14:21:15 by mariomike »

Offline Civvymedic

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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #33 on: January 27, 2020, 15:06:35 »
We do indeed. A lot of good things to go forward came out of the SARS experience including better CBA language but also screening, PPE use etc. Hope this time goes better....

Offline mariomike

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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #34 on: January 28, 2020, 10:06:25 »
Hope this time goes better....

Hope so too...

During SARS, our mayor, Mel Lastman ( of "Bad Boy" furniture and appliances fame and fortune ), did an interview on CNN. When asked what the World Health Organization was doing about the crisis, Mel replied, "They don't know what they're talking about. I don't know who this group is. I've never heard of them before."  :)
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/lastman-lashes-out-at-who/article1161040/

Maybe when we put this one behind us, the city will have the 2020 version of the 2003 SARS-Stock: "Estimated to have between 450,000 and 500,000 people attending the concert, it is the largest outdoor ticketed event in Canadian history, and one of the largest in North American history."
https://web.archive.org/web/20090727191619/http://www.cbc.ca/news/background/sarsbenefit/

They can call it, "Coronafest."  :)



I know this man. He was big and strong and energetic. The highlighted part is important.

I'm not sure if any of our SARS survivors ever recovered enough to return to 9-1-1 operations.

Quote
CBC
Jan 28, 2020

SARS survivor, retired paramedic warns front-line workers need protection against coronavirus

Severe chills. Aches and pains. Full-body weakness.
 
Bruce England says those intense symptoms began one night in 2003 after he'd wrapped up a shift as a Toronto paramedic.
 
"I couldn't get out of bed, I couldn't lift my head. I couldn't go to the washroom," he recalled. "I just didn't have the strength. It was like being hit by a two-by-four and not being able to move."

England called his team to report his sudden illness. Soon after, he says two fellow paramedics arrived at his home in full protective suits to take him to a hospital — where he was whisked right into an isolation room.

England spent two weeks recovering in hospital and another month at home, but still felt unwell after he returned to work, and eventually shifted out of his front-line duties to work in Toronto's office of emergency management.
 
Close to two decades later, England said he still has trouble breathing and experiences numbness in his hands and feet — lingering reminders of his brush with a deadly illness.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/sars-survivor-retired-paramedic-warns-front-line-workers-need-protection-against-coronavirus-1.5441953

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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #35 on: January 28, 2020, 12:31:18 »
From the SITREP 7 update from the WHO:

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200127-sitrep-7-2019--ncov.pdf?sfvrsn=98ef79f5_2

Quote
Among the 37 cases identified outside of China, three were detected without the onset of symptoms, while among the remaining 34 patients, there is information on date of symptom for 28 individuals. The epidemic curve for these individuals is shown in Figure 2.

The median age of cases detected outside of China is 45 years ranging from2 to 74 years, 71% of cases were male (information was missing on age for 6 cases, and on sex for 4 cases). Of the 27 cases for whom we have detailed information on date of symptom onset and travel date from China, 8 cases had symptom onset in China, 5 had onset on the same day as travel, and 14 developed symptoms after leaving China.

36 cases had travel history to China, of whom 34 had travel history in Wuhan city, or had an epidemiological link to a confirmed case with travel history to Wuhan. For the remaining two, investigations into their travel histories are ongoing. One additional case was the result of human-to-human transmission among close family contacts in Viet Nam.

Emphasis mine...a very interesting point.  Of 37 international cases, 34 were in Wuhan...

Leaves me to ponder if this infection is more difficult to spread, or if the latency period is lining us up for a second wave in a few days as it incubates?

Insert disclaimer statement here....

:panzer:

Offline mariomike

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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #36 on: January 28, 2020, 12:45:21 »
if the latency period is lining us up for a second wave in a few days as it incubates?

From the post above,
Quote
caught his illness from a patient in a hospital about two weeks before his symptoms showed up.




Offline Retired AF Guy

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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #37 on: January 28, 2020, 15:38:08 »
Found this article yesterday from Wired.com that states a Canadian company using AI was able to predict the coronovirus outbreak before the CDC or WHO were able to.

Quote
An AI Epidemiologist Sent the First Warnings of the Wuhan Virus

Eric Niiler
Science
01.25.2020 07:00 AM

The BlueDot algorithm scours news reports and airline ticketing data to predict the spread of diseases like those linked to the flu outbreak in China.

On January 9, the World Health Organization notified the public of a flu-like outbreak in China: a cluster of pneumonia cases had been reported in Wuhan, possibly from vendors’ exposure to live animals at the Huanan Seafood Market. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had gotten the word out a few days earlier, on January 6. But a Canadian health monitoring platform had beaten them both to the punch, sending word of the outbreak to its customers on December 31.

BlueDot uses an AI-driven algorithm that scours foreign-language news reports, animal and plant disease networks, and official proclamations to give its clients advance warning to avoid danger zones like Wuhan.

Speed matters during an outbreak, and tight-lipped Chinese officials do not have a good track record of sharing information about diseases, air pollution, or natural disasters. But public health officials at WHO and the CDC have to rely on these very same health officials for their own disease monitoring. So maybe an AI can get there faster. “We know that governments may not be relied upon to provide information in a timely fashion,” says Kamran Khan, BlueDot’s founder and CEO. “We can pick up news of possible outbreaks, little murmurs or forums or blogs of indications of some kind of unusual events going on.”

Khan says the algorithm doesn’t use social media postings because that data is too messy. But he does have one trick up his sleeve: access to global airline ticketing data that can help predict where and when infected residents are headed next. It correctly predicted that the virus would jump from Wuhan to Bangkok, Seoul, Taipei, and Tokyo in the days following its initial appearance.

Khan, who was working as a hospital infectious disease specialist in Toronto during the SARS epidemic of 2003, dreamt of finding a better way to track diseases. That virus started in provincial China and spread to Hong Kong and then to Toronto, where it killed 44 people. “There’s a bit of deja vu right now,” Khan says about the coronavirus outbreak today. “In 2003, I watched the virus overwhelm the city and cripple the hospital. There was an enormous amount of mental and physical fatigue, and I thought, ‘Let’s not do this again.’”

After testing out several predictive programs, Khan launched BlueDot in 2014 and raised $9.4 million in venture capital funding. The company now has 40 employees—physicians and programmers who devise the disease surveillance analytic program, which uses natural-language processing and machine learning techniques to sift through news reports in 65 languages, along with airline data and reports of animal disease outbreaks. “What we have done is use natural language processing and machine learning to train this engine to recognize whether this is an outbreak of anthrax in Mongolia versus a reunion of the heavy metal band Anthrax,” Kahn says.

Once the automated data-sifting is complete, human analysis takes over, Khan says. Epidemiologists check that the conclusions make sense from a scientific standpoint, and then a report is sent to government, business, and public health clients.

BlueDot’s reports are then sent to public health officials in a dozen countries (including the US and Canada), airlines, and frontline hospitals where infected patients might end up. BlueDot doesn’t sell their data to the general public, but they are working on it, Khan says.

The firm isn’t the first to look for an end-run around public health officials, but they are hoping to do better than Google Flu Trends, which was euthanized after underestimating the severity of the 2013 flu season by 140 percent. BlueDot successfully predicted the location of the Zika outbreak in South Florida in a publication in the British medical journal The Lancet.

Whether BlueDot proves as successful this time remains to be seen. But in the meantime, some public health experts say that despite covering up the SARS outbreak for months in 2002, Chinese officials have reacted faster this time.

“The outbreak is probably a lot bigger than one the public health officials have confirmation of,” says James Lawler, an infectious disease specialist at the University of Nebraska Medical Center, who treated quarantined Ebola patients in 2017 and 2018. “Just using a back-of-the-envelope calculation on how many travelers there are from China in a given week, and percentage than might have been affected, it’s a lot.”

An area containing eight cities and 35 million people have now been quarantined in China, The New York Times reported Friday, while The Wall Street Journal reports that hospitals in the epicenter of Wuhan are turning away patients and medical supplies such as masks and sanitizers have run out.

Lawler and others say that the coronavirus outbreak will continue to spread as travelers from China to other nations exhibit symptoms of infection. He says we still don’t know how many people will get sick, and how many of those will die before the outbreak recedes.

To stop the spread of disease, public health officials will need to tell the truth and tell it quickly. But in the meantime, it might be worth deputizing an AI-driven epidemiologist.

Link
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Offline Colin P

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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #38 on: January 28, 2020, 17:42:12 »
First suspected case in Vancouver

Offline mariomike

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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #39 on: January 28, 2020, 18:43:07 »
Lock down Toronto like they did Wuhan.

First suspected case in Vancouver

GVA is the third-largest metropolitan area in Canada. Lock it down too?

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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #40 on: January 28, 2020, 18:57:17 »
Vancouver getting hit is inevitable. Tons of regular back and forth from China.
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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #42 on: January 28, 2020, 20:35:57 »
Point ...
Just dropping this here
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/did-china-steal-coronavirus-canada-and-weaponize-it
... counterpoint (1), ...
Quote
... A Zero Hedge story claims that Chinese agents stole coronavirus samples from Canada to create a biological weapon, which has now caused an outbreak of the disease around the world.

A Chinese scientist who worked in a Canadian lab studying coronaviruses is under investigation for trips she took to Wuhan. But there’s no evidence she gave China coronavirus samples to develop a biological weapon. Plus, the lab worked on MERS, not the Wuhan coronavirus. The Wuhan lab mentioned in the story does deal with dangerous pathogens like coronaviruses, but there is no evidence that it is the source of the latest outbreak.

The story lacks evidence for its headline, so we rate it False.
... and counterpoint (2):
Quote
The Public Health Agency of Canada is denying any connection between the National Microbiology Lab in Winnipeg, two scientists who were escorted out of the building last summer, and the coronavirus outbreak in China ...
Let's see who else connects those dots & how.
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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #43 on: January 29, 2020, 03:34:39 »
Canada will be prohibiting flights between China and Canada , if the government fails to act then the virus might become an epidemic. I wonder why the US hasn't already taken that step ?

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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #44 on: January 29, 2020, 05:40:46 »
I thought about that the other day too T6, before the Government of Canada made that decision.

I don't think that will really help anything though.  It's just as easy for mainland Chinese to fly to Europe, and from Europe to North America - as it is direct.  Not to mention indirect flights via Canada or the US, with the final destination being Canada or the US.

It might help delay the spread of the virus, but wouldn't ultimately prevent it from coming here.
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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #46 on: January 29, 2020, 09:02:44 »
In the news,

Quote
New coronavirus cases in China top SARS as evacuations begin
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/new-coronavirus-cases-in-china-top-sars-as-evacuations-begin-1.4787915#_gus&_gucid=&_gup=twitter&_gsc=KZGpuTO
a new virus that has now infected more people in China than were sickened in the country by SARS.

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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #47 on: January 29, 2020, 10:37:49 »
Let's see who else connects those dots & how.
National Post's take ....
Quote
In a table-top pandemic exercise at Johns Hopkins University last year, a pathogen based on the emerging Nipah virus was released by fictional extremists, killing 150 million people.

A less apocalyptic scenario mapped out by a blue-ribbon U.S. panel envisioned Nipah being dispersed by terrorists and claiming over 6,000 American lives.

Scientists from Canada’s National Microbiology Laboratory (NML) have also said the highly lethal bug is a potential bio-weapon.

But this March that same lab shipped samples of the henipavirus family and of Ebola to China, which has long been suspected of running a secretive biological warfare (BW) program.

China strongly denies it makes germ weapons, and Canadian officials say the shipment was part of its efforts to support public-health research worldwide. Sharing of such samples internationally is relatively standard practice.

But some experts are raising questions about the March transfer, which appears to be at the centre of a shadowy RCMP investigation and dismissal of a top scientist at the Winnipeg-based NML.

“I would say this Canadian ‘contribution’ might likely be counterproductive,” said Dany Shoham, a biological and chemical warfare expert at Israel’s Bar-Ilan University. “I think the Chinese activities … are highly suspicious, in terms of exploring (at least) those viruses as BW agents. “

James Giordano, a neurology professor at Georgetown University and senior fellow in biowarfare at the U.S. Special Operations Command, said it’s worrisome on a few fronts.

China’s growing investment in bio-science, looser ethics around gene-editing and other cutting-edge technology and integration between government and academia raise the spectre of such pathogens being weaponized, he said.

That could mean an offensive agent, or a modified germ let loose by proxies, for which only China has the treatment or vaccine, said Giordano, co-head of Georgetown’s Brain Science and Global Law and Policy Program ...
Hmmm ...
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Re: All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
« Reply #48 on: January 29, 2020, 13:33:12 »
More on problems @ the Chinese end ...
Quote
Yang Zhongyi was still waiting on Monday for a coronavirus test in the Chinese city of Wuhan two weeks after she started to show signs of a fever, even though doctors privately told her family that she almost certainly has been infected, her son Zhang Changchun told Reuters.

Yang, 53, is just one of many Wuhan inhabitants finding it difficult to get tested or receive treatment for the new form of coronavirus, which authorities say has infected 2,800 people and killed at least 80 in China, a situation that may be contributing to the spread of the disease.

Yang has been unable to gain full-time admission to a hospital, her son said. She has been put on drips in unquarantined areas at four separate hospitals in the city to treat her deteriorating lungs, he said, while he is doing what he can to get her tested or admitted full-time.

“My brother and I have been queuing at the hospital every day. We go at 6 and 7 in the morning, and queue for the whole day, but we don’t get any new answers,” Zhang told Reuters. “Every time the responses are the same: ‘There’s no bed, wait for the government to give a notice, and follow the news to see what’s going on.’ The doctors are all very frustrated too.” ...
More from Reuters here.
Quote
s far as I know, trying to contain a city of 11 million people is new to science.” This was how Dr. Gauden Galea, the World Health Organization’s country representative in China, described the situation facing the city of Wuhan when asked late last week for his update on the coronavirus outbreak.

It was clear from Galea’s remarks that the total containment of Wuhan, the city where I have lived for the past few decades, was not a course of action the WHO had recommended. Nor did the organization have any clear view on whether such an action would prove effective in limiting the spread of the disease. “It has not been tried before as a public health measure,” he said, “so we cannot at this stage say it will or will not work.”

I am now one of 11 million people in Wuhan who are living through this grand experiment, a measure that, Galea also said, shows “a very strong public health commitment and a willingness to take dramatic action.” From inside the curtain that now encloses my city, I wish to offer my thoughts on this “dramatic action,” and to judge what we have actually seen and experienced in terms of commitment to public health.

( ... )

Everyone must understand, first of all, that this epidemic was allowed to spread for a period of more than forty days before any of the abovementioned cities were closed off, or any decisive action taken. In fact, if we look at the main efforts undertaken by the leadership, and by provincial and city governments in particular, these were focused mostly not on the containment of the epidemic itself, but on the containment and suppression of information about the disease.

The early suppression of news about the epidemic is now fairly common knowledge among Chinese, and many people view this failure to grapple openly with the outbreak as the chief reason why it was later seen as necessary to take the “dramatic action” of closing down my city and many others ...
More from a media watchdog site here.

Meanwhile ...
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