Author Topic: What will Trump's stance on China be if re-elected.  (Read 927 times)

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Offline Donald H

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What will Trump's stance on China be if re-elected.
« on: September 13, 2020, 14:27:11 »
For a possible hint we may look at his reasons for friendly relations with Russia. Is peaceful relations with Russia Trump's nature or are there more important reasons in Trump's mindset with Russia/Putin.

And so if the former is the case and not any other possibilities of the latter, then would this be consistent with China too? Trump is compelled to take a tough stand on China at the moment because that is expected of him by the military and the population, but will it continue so after the election if he is re-elected.

An analysis of Trump's opinion on China is difficult at the moment. I found the following piece from Al Jazeera could be a hint.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/09/beijing-impose-restrictions-diplomats-china-200911161356839.html

The US talking points are begrudging China for it's handling of the Corona virus as well as US accusations of theft of information on the virus vaccine. Are either of those accusations even rational accusations? And does Trump actually parrot that cause with any real convictions.

My opinion is fwiw, Trump's treatment of Xi/China will be consistent with his treatment of Russia/Putin. For those who agree, if any, is that a reason to support Trump. I believe a good sized chunk of Trump's support will be on board with that. The number of Americans demanding that the troops be brought home is too many to be ignored in the coming election.
It was believed afterward that the man was a lunatic, because there was no sense in what he said.
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Offline shawn5o

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Re: What will Trump's stance on China be if re-elected.
« Reply #1 on: September 13, 2020, 19:51:02 »
For a possible hint we may look at his reasons for friendly relations with Russia. Is peaceful relations with Russia Trump's nature or are there more important reasons in Trump's mindset with Russia/Putin.

And so if the former is the case and not any other possibilities of the latter, then would this be consistent with China too? Trump is compelled to take a tough stand on China at the moment because that is expected of him by the military and the population, but will it continue so after the election if he is re-elected.

An analysis of Trump's opinion on China is difficult at the moment. I found the following piece from Al Jazeera could be a hint.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/09/beijing-impose-restrictions-diplomats-china-200911161356839.html

The US talking points are begrudging China for it's handling of the Corona virus as well as US accusations of theft of information on the virus vaccine. Are either of those accusations even rational accusations? And does Trump actually parrot that cause with any real convictions.

My opinion is fwiw, Trump's treatment of Xi/China will be consistent with his treatment of Russia/Putin. For those who agree, if any, is that a reason to support Trump. I believe a good sized chunk of Trump's support will be on board with that. The number of Americans demanding that the troops be brought home is too many to be ignored in the coming election.

Hi Don

What I do know about Trump and Russia is that he attempted to build one of his resorts there (i think that was a failure).

As for theft of vacine info, i think that our cdn media reported that it happened here, so maybe it's true.

As a side note, I'm sure that CCP is heavily involved in tech espionage. For instance, Global News released a report about Notel's tech secrets were stolen by CCP operatives.

Quote
Inside the Chinese military attack on Nortel

By Sam Cooper Global News

Posted August 25, 2020 4:00 am
Updated September 8, 2020 5:46 pm

It was a mind-blowing clue.

In 2004 Nortel cyber-security advisor Brian Shields investigated a serious breach in the telecom giant’s network. At the time Nortel’s fibre optics equipment was the world’s envy, with 70 per cent of all internet traffic running on Canadian technology.

And someone wanted Nortel’s secrets.

Shields found that a computer in Shanghai had hacked into the email account of an Ottawa-based Nortel executive. Using passwords stolen from the executive the intruder downloaded more than 450 documents from “Live Link” — a Nortel server used to warehouse sensitive intellectual property.

Shields soon found the hacker controlled the accounts of at least seven Nortel executives. This was no random cybercriminal. But who was it?

Read more at LINK

And remember, Trump is bringing home the troops (slowly though)
“We can't all be heroes because somebody has to sit on the curb and clap as they go by.” ― Will Rogers

Offline Donald H

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Re: What will Trump's stance on China be if re-elected.
« Reply #2 on: September 14, 2020, 13:28:35 »
Hi Don

What I do know about Trump and Russia is that he attempted to build one of his resorts there (i think that was a failure).

Craig Unger wrote a book titled: House of Trump, House of Putin. In which Trump's dealings with Russia/Putin were considered in great detail.

Quote
As for theft of vacine info, i think that our cdn media reported that it happened here, so maybe it's true.

I'm not saying that is isn't true, I'm suggesting that I find it hard to believe that information on a vaccine can actually be stolen! Isn't the search for a vaccine an international exercise in cooperation?

Serious question for everybody! I could be wrong but it's my distinct recollection that is the way it was before the political spin took over.

Quote
As a side note, I'm sure that CCP is heavily involved in tech espionage. For instance, Global News released a report about Notel's tech secrets were stolen by CCP operatives.

I would agree and add that IMO China is completely and heavily involved in procuring information on anything they can get their hands on. As would be all countries that deal in intelligence operations, both military and civilian.

Quote
And remember, Trump is bringing home the troops (slowly though)

After the election we'll see if that continues. It could be nothing more than moving the troops around, for example, pulling a few thousand out of Iraq and putting them in Afghanistan, for example only.

I tend to think that Trump's agenda on appeasing the antiwar faction is genuine.

My opinion is that Trump is quite unconcerned with America's strategic military requirements, as opposed to his own priorities. He's demonstrated his feeling for the military and I think that is now established beyond the level of political spin doctoring.
I know you disagree. And again, thanks for your consideration!

 :cheers:

edit: For anyone interested in China's preference for US president.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/25/asia/biden-trump-china-preferred-candidate-hnk-intl/index.html
« Last Edit: September 14, 2020, 15:03:55 by Donald H »
It was believed afterward that the man was a lunatic, because there was no sense in what he said.
~Mark Twain.

Offline CBH99

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Re: What will Trump's stance on China be if re-elected.
« Reply #3 on: September 14, 2020, 16:34:21 »
One thing that you've mentioned is his continued stance on 'bringing the troops home'.  It isn't that simple, and the American public - much like ordinary people everywhere - have the memory of a fish, and as a collective are ADHD as hell.

Trump may succeed in bringing troops home from Iraq and Afghanistan as the situations allow, and I don't think he wants to keep troops in either conflict zone any longer than necessary.  Both conflicts have been drawn out beyond anything reasonable, and American casualties in either conflict are a frustration for the American public.


However, that doesn't preclude him deploying the military to other conflict areas as conflicts erupt.  As soon as the mainstream media starts showing video of Taipei in ruins with tens of thousands of dead civilians, shopping malls caved from bombs and missile strikes (with families buried under the rubble), schools blown up with students inside, and the chaos that will come from China literally RAINING missiles onto a city...the American public will be shocked & disgusted, and the patriotic fervor that fuels America will be re-ignited once again.


Bringing the troops home from old and tired conflicts?  Yes. 

But I wouldn't connect that with deploying military forces in the face of blatant Chinese military aggression.
Fortune Favours the Bold...and the Smart.

Wouldn't it be nice to have some Boondock Saints kicking around?

Offline Donald H

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Re: What will Trump's stance on China be if re-elected.
« Reply #4 on: September 14, 2020, 16:54:57 »



Bringing the troops home from old and tired conflicts?  Yes.

Are you saying that Trump considers Iraq and Afghanistan and perhaps Syria as old and tired conflicts? If so then I am also suggesting that could be Trump's agenda for the US military.

Quote
But I wouldn't connect that with deploying military forces in the face of blatant Chinese military aggression.

It's hard for me to say because China's military aggression remains speculative. And when/if it turns to military aggression, the American people's opinions on it may be surprisingly dovelike, depending on the particular aggression.

Against any Nato country, it appears there would be no doubt!

But wait! Hasn't Trump already hinted that he may not take America to war on any pretense raised by an aggrieved Nato nation?
And that leaves Trump's response to China's aggression against Taiwan highly speculative too. As I could suggest would be the case with the American people's opinions on risking a nuclear war in aid of some other country.

This all speaks to Trump's positioning on China if he's re-elected.

I don't think any of these questions would apply to Biden.
It was believed afterward that the man was a lunatic, because there was no sense in what he said.
~Mark Twain.

Offline CBH99

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Re: What will Trump's stance on China be if re-elected.
« Reply #5 on: September 14, 2020, 17:32:52 »
I think Trump's options will be far more limited than some may think.

Part of it has to do with credibility to America's allies throughout SE Asia, countries that have made a real effort to solidify ties with the US. 

Taiwan itself has spent a fair chunk of money buying American military goods, and has given itself a real ability to take a bite out of Chinese military action.  Being a small country, it can only do so much - but it's given itself what I would consider several small, sharp knives to use against China rather than perhaps the broadsword that other countries could yield.

Any action China takes against Taiwan would have ramifications throughout the region, and America needs to be seen as a reliable ally to Japan, Australia, South Korea, Philippines, Singapore, etc.


Some of these come in the form of formal security alliances, similar to that of NATO.  So while these countries may not be located in North America or Europe, some of the security guarantees that America has offered to these countries are a matter of formal treaty, and legally the US would be required to take some form of action to assist. 

What form that action may take is a matter of debate.



Getting away from the military action side of things, the American & Chinese economies rely on each other and are woven around each other at their foundations.  So any action China takes will have direct and serious implications for the American economy, and vice versa.  (Publicly traded companies, stock markets, pricing of goods, etc etc.)

So while Trump may be the Commander In Chief, the US Congress & US courts hold more power than the President does outside of direct military matters.  This has been demonstrated countless times since Trump was elected.



So he may not have as many options in dealing with China as some may think, whether that is economically or militarily.  In terms of technological or corporate espionage, there are serious military and economic considerations in regards to both.  Again, due to law, Congress, or the requirement to act - his options may be limited.   :2c:
« Last Edit: September 14, 2020, 17:44:46 by CBH99 »
Fortune Favours the Bold...and the Smart.

Wouldn't it be nice to have some Boondock Saints kicking around?

Offline shawn5o

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Re: What will Trump's stance on China be if re-elected.
« Reply #6 on: September 14, 2020, 19:58:39 »
One thing that you've mentioned is his continued stance on 'bringing the troops home'.  It isn't that simple, and the American public - much like ordinary people everywhere - have the memory of a fish, and as a collective are ADHD as hell.

Trump may succeed in bringing troops home from Iraq and Afghanistan as the situations allow, and I don't think he wants to keep troops in either conflict zone any longer than necessary.  Both conflicts have been drawn out beyond anything reasonable, and American casualties in either conflict are a frustration for the American public.


However, that doesn't preclude him deploying the military to other conflict areas as conflicts erupt.  As soon as the mainstream media starts showing video of Taipei in ruins with tens of thousands of dead civilians, shopping malls caved from bombs and missile strikes (with families buried under the rubble), schools blown up with students inside, and the chaos that will come from China literally RAINING missiles onto a city...the American public will be shocked & disgusted, and the patriotic fervor that fuels America will be re-ignited once again.


Bringing the troops home from old and tired conflicts?  Yes. 

But I wouldn't connect that with deploying military forces in the face of blatant Chinese military aggression.

Hi CBH99

Thanks for the above. Excellent points.
“We can't all be heroes because somebody has to sit on the curb and clap as they go by.” ― Will Rogers

Offline Donald H

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Re: What will Trump's stance on China be if re-elected.
« Reply #7 on: September 14, 2020, 20:18:50 »
I think Trump's options will be far more limited than some may think.

Part of it has to do with credibility to America's allies throughout SE Asia, countries that have made a real effort to solidify ties with the US. 

Taiwan itself has spent a fair chunk of money buying American military goods, and has given itself a real ability to take a bite out of Chinese military action.  Being a small country, it can only do so much - but it's given itself what I would consider several small, sharp knives to use against China rather than perhaps the broadsword that other countries could yield.

Any action China takes against Taiwan would have ramifications throughout the region, and America needs to be seen as a reliable ally to Japan, Australia, South Korea, Philippines, Singapore, etc.


Some of these come in the form of formal security alliances, similar to that of NATO.  So while these countries may not be located in North America or Europe, some of the security guarantees that America has offered to these countries are a matter of formal treaty, and legally the US would be required to take some form of action to assist. 

What form that action may take is a matter of debate.



Getting away from the military action side of things, the American & Chinese economies rely on each other and are woven around each other at their foundations.  So any action China takes will have direct and serious implications for the American economy, and vice versa.  (Publicly traded companies, stock markets, pricing of goods, etc etc.)

So while Trump may be the Commander In Chief, the US Congress & US courts hold more power than the President does outside of direct military matters.  This has been demonstrated countless times since Trump was elected.



So he may not have as many options in dealing with China as some may think, whether that is economically or militarily.  In terms of technological or corporate espionage, there are serious military and economic considerations in regards to both.  Again, due to law, Congress, or the requirement to act - his options may be limited.   :2c:

I'll second what Shawn has said. And well stated argument. I think I've already stated my opinion on most of that so I won't belabour it again.
It was believed afterward that the man was a lunatic, because there was no sense in what he said.
~Mark Twain.

Offline Donald H

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Re: What will Trump's stance on China be if re-elected.
« Reply #8 on: September 17, 2020, 13:39:46 »
If Trump wins the election he'll have to learn how to pretend to shun China in the face of big odds that the GOP will maintain it's traditional practice of doing more very profitable business with China.
This is consistent with the reason why our Conservative party has favoured the GOP and most likely even Trump. The Democratic party has never been good for free trade.
The nature of the political left is that which is supportive of working people (working Americans) who must somehow learn to compete with Chinese productivity at very low wages.

https://www.reaganfoundation.org/reagan-institute/centers/articles/is-the-gop-still-the-party-of-free-trade/
Then Trump came along!  Trump voters want no part of having to compete with China's inexpensive merchandise and China's low wages. Trump's base wants him to eliminate all of that kind of competition.

But that clashes with the priorities of big business and tradional Republican priorities. There is little doubt that Trump will have to bend to the wishes of big business while somehow making it appear that he's on the side of the common worker.

Therein lies the reason why the honeymoon of Trump and the middle class can't last and why trade relations between China/US will flourish under another 4 years of Trump.

America hasn't changed in the way Bob Woodward suggests. It's still the same in which big business pulls all the strings.

It was believed afterward that the man was a lunatic, because there was no sense in what he said.
~Mark Twain.