Author Topic: Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread  (Read 999300 times)

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Online tomahawk6

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Re: The Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread
« Reply #25 on: February 20, 2005, 12:15:52 »
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A37089-2005Feb19.html?

The Chinese to my mind have one primary goal, unification of Taiwan. The Twainese are unlikely to voluntarily become part of the PRC.
The Chinese are working hard on training troops in amphibious operations and are building amphibious warfare ships. They are acquiring top shelf combat aircraft and air to air weapons. They have obtained the Sunburn a very potent anti-ship weapon. PLAN subs have been trying to get close to USN battlegroups. If their goal is to take Taiwan they must be ready to deal with the 7th Fleet.

Online Cdn Blackshirt

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Re: The Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread
« Reply #26 on: February 20, 2005, 12:44:21 »
A buddy emailed me a link to a Fox News report that tomorrow Japan may for the first time announce that they will join US efforts to protect Taiwan against a possible Chinese Invasion.

Link for Fox News:   http://www.foxnews.com/index.html

Then look for a link on the right hand side called "Wall of Security".

Very interesting indeed....

Kudos to Japan.   I wish Canada would politically make the same statement, rather than selling out at every opportunity to obtain more Nortel and Bombardier orders.




Matthew.     ::)
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Offline Thucydides

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Re: The Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread
« Reply #27 on: February 20, 2005, 20:33:05 »
Fighting China will taks more than straight "head to head" combat in the seas off Tiawan. Look for revolutionary American and alliance strategies, including counter-invading the Chinese mainland, opening a second front with India, unleashing a devastating cyberattack which affects LINUX (China being a holdout against using Microsoft products)  or something equally "out of the box".

As for Canada, if we are so craven in dealing with the "Republia Serbska" or the Sudan; it is hard to imagine the Liberal establishment standing up to a real predetory power like China. I only want to see the look on Paul Martins face when he finds out that Canada's "Magic Pixie Dust" doesn't work at the UN anymore (and indeed realizes IT NEVER DID).
Dagny, this is not a battle over material goods. It's a moral crisis, the greatest the world has ever faced and the last. Our age is the climax of centuries of evil. We must put an end to it, once and for all, or perish - we, the men of the mind. It was our own guilt. We produced the wealth of the world - but we let our enemies write its moral code.

Offline NewCenturion

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Re: The Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread
« Reply #28 on: February 25, 2005, 14:08:58 »
Your right Majoor our foreign policy (if you want to call it that) is all smoke and mirrors, Canada is going to have to put up or shut up.
"There never was a time when, in my opinion, some way could not be found to
prevent the drawing of the sword."
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Online E.R. Campbell

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Re: The Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread
« Reply #29 on: February 26, 2005, 09:41:55 »
I think the resources China needs â “ and the need is massive and pressing â “ lie at its doorstep, in Siberia.

The Yenisey River is the natural boundary between Sino-Asia and Eurasia.*

The areas around and especially East of the Yenisey are one of the worlds last great untapped resource treasure-houses.   Many Chinese, including influential officials in the CPC, believe that Central and Eastern Siberia are Chinese and that Western Siberia (along with Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, etc) can be and should be a Chinese fiefdom.

It may be that the next really big war will be between China and Russia â “ with Siberia as the prize.   Our (the American led West) strategy will be challenging; we will, almost certainly, split â “ Europe (save, perhaps the far North-West (Britain, Iceland and Norway, especially)) will likely support Russia.   Australia, India and Japan will also, likely, favour Russia; they will all, I think, be wrong â “ on the wrong side of history, in any event.

Taiwan is a real problem but, when all is said and done, Taiwan is part of China.   The trick, for us, is to convince the Chinese that they can have Taiwan whenever they want it, without a fight ... all they have to do is reform their own political system.   Taiwan will ... wants to, I think ... rejoin a democratic, law abiding China.
----------

* This puts the area between the Urals (the generally accepted Eastern limits of Europe) and the Yenisey in an interesting category; I think they may become a huge, modern version of the march (Welsh border) of a thousand years ago.   If so then China will play the role of the Normans, from the South East, dominating the region through some local variations of 11th century marcher lords, until it slips, seamlessly into Greater China.
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Offline mainerjohnthomas

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Re: The Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread
« Reply #30 on: February 26, 2005, 11:32:47 »
     Even in the bad old days when we were all practicing REFORGER for possible WWIII in Germany, the Soviets never lowered their defences in the east.  They have too many memories of eastern invasion, and will never, under any political system or regieme permit an inch of mainland Siberia to fall to the Chinese.  Both the Russians and Chinese are aware that the Russians are not rational on this issue (and good on them) and that should the Chinese move east, China will be nuked from the face of the planet, and if that means the end of civilization on earth and 80% of the Russian population, so be it.  This attitude is entirely responsible for the Chinese focus elsewhere.  No pressure the west could exert will force Russian leadership to cede Siberia, or access to its resources to China.  Why do you think the Chinese are buying up mining concerns in North and South America, when the same untapped resources could be developed in a cost effective manner in Siberia with Sino/Russian cooperation?  Because the Russians know better than to let the Dragon get its claws into Siberia, and get an appetite for its riches.  If the Taiwanese were a nuclear power, the world would be a vastly more interesting place.
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Online E.R. Campbell

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Re: The Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread
« Reply #31 on: February 26, 2005, 12:51:56 »
21st century Russia is a paper tiger, and the Chinese know it.
It is ill that men should kill one another in seditions, tumults and wars; but it is worse to bring nations to such misery, weakness and baseness
as to have neither strength nor courage to contend for anything; to have nothing left worth defending and to give the name of peace to desolation.
Algernon Sidney in Discourses Concerning Government, (1698)
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Offline mainerjohnthomas

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Re: The Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread
« Reply #32 on: February 26, 2005, 13:55:11 »
21st century Russia is a paper tiger, and the Chinese know it.

20th century Russia was a steel fist, using their nuclear aresenel to force NATO to keep conflicts on the conventional scale where they figured their numbers could bury our technology.  21st Century Russia has lost the steel fist, and is reduced to a clumsy iron finger or two, their nuclear arsenel is now moved from the bottom, to a place alarmingly far up their strategy tree.  They were safer playing to win; now they are in a position where there options may only include losing alone, or everybody losing together, and their national character is not one that embraces losing gracefully.  A paper tiger, with one plutonium derived Dragonkilling grenade, and the will to use it.
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Online E.R. Campbell

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Re: The Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread
« Reply #33 on: February 26, 2005, 14:17:32 »
I think - no authoritative references - the Chinese think:

"¢   The Russian nuclear arsenal is poorly maintained, maybe less than 10% of the 1985 capacity and that in another ten years it will be, essentially, worthless;

"¢   The Chinese medium range nuclear arsenal is big enough to deter, at least intimidate the Russians;

"¢   The Russian military is in precipitous decline - unable to deploy into the East in any useful strength;

"¢   The Chinese only have to take Siberia to win - they don't have to go to Moscow;

"¢   The Russians have to make it all the way to Shanghai or they lose; and

"¢   Even if the Chinese nuclear calculus is wrong, China can absorb everything Russia can throw and then rise up, quickly and murderously from the ashes, and ravage the Russians - tossing them back into barbarism.

Talking about quantity vs. quality, US Senator Sam Nunn used to say: â ?Quantity has a quality all its ownâ ? - a remark which was made for China.   Like Fitzgerald's rich, the Chinese, too, are different and we err if we apply Western values to their strategic calculus.
It is ill that men should kill one another in seditions, tumults and wars; but it is worse to bring nations to such misery, weakness and baseness
as to have neither strength nor courage to contend for anything; to have nothing left worth defending and to give the name of peace to desolation.
Algernon Sidney in Discourses Concerning Government, (1698)
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Offline Cloud Cover

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Re: The Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread
« Reply #34 on: February 26, 2005, 14:23:35 »
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A37089-2005Feb19.html?

. The Twainese are unlikely to voluntarily become part of the PRC.


LOL, I agree. I don't think Shania Twain's island empire off of New Zealand wants to be part of the PRC. [this must be the territory which the Twainese inhabit!].
 

Offline mainerjohnthomas

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Re: The Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread
« Reply #35 on: February 26, 2005, 15:01:04 »
I think - no authoritative references - the Chinese think:

"¢   The Russian nuclear arsenal is poorly maintained, maybe less than 10% of the 1985 capacity and that in another ten years it will be, essentially, worthless;
"¢   The Chinese only have to take Siberia to win - they don't have to go to Moscow;
"¢   Even if the Chinese nuclear calculus is wrong, China can absorb everything Russia can throw and then rise up, quickly and murderously from the ashes, and ravage the Russians - tossing them back into barbarism.
     The Chinese system is overstrained as it is, they have billions they can feed as long as nothing goes wrong.  Their economy is as strained as Imperial Japan in the 1930-40's for resources They cannot absorb a nuclear attack without the wheels comming off.  Russia has no chance to win a confrontation with China at the moment, or for the forseeable future.  They can make sure China does not survive.  Would China go down swinging?  Lets just say that I'd hate to share a land border with someone that combination of desperate and strong.  If China and Russia ever negotiated in good faith, the West would be in a world of hurt.  As it is, there is a better chance of Osama bin Ladin getting the Republican nomination for Texas Governor than the Russians and Chinese agreeing opening the Manchurian border to serious trade and economic joint development.
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Re: The Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread
« Reply #36 on: February 26, 2005, 15:56:17 »
The Chinese system is overstrained as it is, they have billions they can feed as long as nothing goes wrong.

Yes, I agree, partially.   The system is strained but they can feed their billions even when some things go wrong â “ sometimes even when many things go wrong.

Quote
Their economy is as strained as Imperial Japan in the 1930-40's for resources

Agreed, and they are determined â “ absolutely determined â “ to have learned the right lessons from Japan in the '30s.

Quote
They cannot absorb a nuclear attack without the wheels comming off.

I don't think they agree ... quite the contrary, as far as I can tell from my reading, they are confident that they can and will be the last man standing in any war with anyone except, maybe, a West which includes India.

Quote
Russia has no chance to win a confrontation with China at the moment, or for the foreseeable future.

The Chinese seem to share this view.

Quote
They can make sure China does not survive.

Once again, the Chinese do not agree; we may not like their calculus, but it is theirs.

Quote
Would China go down swinging?   Lets just say that I'd hate to share a land border with someone that combination of desperate and strong.

Me too ... the Chinese plan, I think, to win without swinging, at all, much less going down.   Some Chinese are talking, right now, about simply populating Siberia so that, in 20+/- years the facts on the ground mean it is theirs.   The key point, for the Chinese, I think, again, is that they are not afraid of Russia; they are not afraid of a war with Russia; they are not afraid of total war with Russia â “ worried, to be sure, but not afraid.

Quote
If China and Russia ever negotiated in good faith, the West would be in a world of hurt.   As it is, there is a better chance of Osama bin Ladin getting the Republican nomination for Texas Governor than the Russians and Chinese agreeing opening the Manchurian border to serious trade and economic joint development.

Agreed ... but this is, fortunately for us, an emnity which has endured for a thousand years - deeper than anything in Europe.
It is ill that men should kill one another in seditions, tumults and wars; but it is worse to bring nations to such misery, weakness and baseness
as to have neither strength nor courage to contend for anything; to have nothing left worth defending and to give the name of peace to desolation.
Algernon Sidney in Discourses Concerning Government, (1698)
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Offline Thucydides

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Re: The Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread
« Reply #37 on: February 26, 2005, 23:19:31 »
China may face a variation of the question which drove Imperial Japan during the 1930s. One faction of the Imperial staff (the Army, I believe), wanted to invade Siberia and take the rich resources available there. The other faction (led by the Navy) , thought the amount of investment and time needed to bring these resources on line would be far to great, better to look south and take the already developed resources from French Indochina, the Dutch East Indies, the British Empire, where there was available labour, infrastructure and open mines, oil wells, working farms....

Fast forward to the 21rst century, and the same conditions apply. An interesting conundrum for the Central Committee.
Dagny, this is not a battle over material goods. It's a moral crisis, the greatest the world has ever faced and the last. Our age is the climax of centuries of evil. We must put an end to it, once and for all, or perish - we, the men of the mind. It was our own guilt. We produced the wealth of the world - but we let our enemies write its moral code.

Offline Zipper

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Re: The Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread
« Reply #38 on: February 27, 2005, 16:51:57 »
Me too ... the Chinese plan, I think, to win without swinging, at all, much less going down.   Some Chinese are talking, right now, about simply populating Siberia so that, in 20+/- years the facts on the ground mean it is theirs.   The key point, for the Chinese, I think, again, is that they are not afraid of Russia; they are not afraid of a war with Russia; they are not afraid of total war with Russia â “ worried, to be sure, but not afraid.

I think that is their attitude everywhere. Spread there population across the world and you hold a majority.

If it ever came to blows between the two, it would be a lose/lose situation. Regardless of whether China has a couple of divisions left standing, other country's would jump on the remaining carcasses of both and claim their share.

And unfortunately the thought of claiming what was yours 1000 years ago doesn't wash in today's world. Even though the Jews and Muslims would argue that to the death. Taiwan is NOT apart of China anymore, nor are they likely to be without something bad happening.

If that were the case, then damn it Brittany and Normandy should be apart of Britain.
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Offline mainerjohnthomas

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Re: The Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread
« Reply #39 on: February 27, 2005, 16:58:32 »
[

And unfortunately the thought of claiming what was yours 1000 years ago doesn't wash in today's world. Even though the Jews and Muslims would argue that to the death. Taiwan is NOT apart of China anymore, nor are they likely to be without something bad happening.

If that were the case, then darn it Brittany and Normandy should be apart of Britain.
Quote
     By that standard, I have claim to most of modern Libya, although I'd need the loan of a few divisions to make it stick......
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Offline Thucydides

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Re: The Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread
« Reply #40 on: March 03, 2005, 23:09:26 »
America and Tiawan's coalition partner can bring a very potent force to the table ( from strategypage.com)

Quote
The Mighty Japanese Navy
by Harold C. Hutchison
February 25, 2005

The JMSDF (Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force) is arguably the second-best navy in the Pacific, trailing only the United States Navy. The JMSDF has a large number of modern surface warships and the third-largest submarine force in the Pacific, and it could be a potential player in any fight in the Formosa Strait, due to the fact that Japan's ties with Taiwan have become much closer.

The primary surface vessels in the JMSDF are the destroyers. Japan's had a long tradition of building a superb destroyer force â “ in World War II, their destroyers were arguably the best in the world. The best destroyers in the JMSDF are the Kongo-class DDGs. These 7,250-ton ships carry 90 vertical-launch cells for SM-2MR missiles (with a range of 111 kilometers), and are equipped with the Aegis system. They are, in essence, copies of the Arleigh Burke-class destroyers in U.S. Navy service, with a few small exceptions (no Tomahawk capability, an Italian 5-inch gun, and some Japanese electronics). It is probably the best surface combatant outside the United States Navy. Japan also has a smaller force of older guided-missile destroyers, the Hatakaze and Tachikaze classes. These two destroyer classes are roughly equivalent to the Charles F. Adams-class destroyers. Japan also has four helicopter-carrying destroyers, primarily used for anti-submarine warfare.

Two other modern destroyer classes are entering service: The Murasame (4,550 tons) and Takanami-class (4,600 tons) destroyers both have vertical-launch cells, but both primarily focus on anti-submarine warfare. They usually carry a mix of vertically-launched ASROC and Sea Sparrow missiles. The two ship classes will comprise fourteen ships total. The major difference between the two ship classes are their main guns. The Murasame has a 76mm gun, the Takanami, a 5-inch gun. Two other classes of destroyer, the Asagiri and Hatsuyuki are also present in strength (20 ships between the two of them).

Japan's other major asset is its large force of advanced diesel-electric submarines (eighteen subs). The Yuushio, Harushio, and Oyashiro classes displace anywhere from 2,450 tons to 3,000 tons. Each carry six 21-inch torpedo tubes, with a total of 20 weapons (either Harpoon anti-ship missiles or Type 89 torpedoes). These subs would be a potent force against the Chinese Navy.

The JMSDF has some problems. Training is difficult, since Japan's waters have many commercial fishing and merchant vessels. Japan is usually able to squeeze in only about ten days of training for mine warfare, when fishing is not so good. The JMSDF also is short on underway replenishment vessels â “ a total of four such ships are available to refuel forty-seven destroyers. The new submarines have also been expensive ($500 million apiece), a problem when the Japanese Constitution limits defense spending to one percent of Japan's Gross National Product. Similarly, the Kongos were built to mercantile standards to save money â “ which means they cannot take as much damage as a Burke-class destroyer. Furthermore, Japan's efforts to build an aircraft carrier have run into opposition. The official design for the replacement for the Haruna and Shirane-class DDHs have shown a full superstructure and forward and aft helicopter pads. However, alternative designs have looked like a small aircraft carrier. At 13,500 tons, these are not much smaller than an Independence-class light carrier from World War II.

The JMSDF also has problems with political support. Often, Japan's security needs (such as the ability to protect oceangoing trade) have been subordinated to concerns about whether a posture is too aggressive. This has gone back to 1981, when proposals to ensure defense of sea lanes was controversial â “ despite Japan's experience under submarine blockade in World War II. Also, Japan's had problems getting sufficient personnel â “ it has been under authorized strength in the past (a shortfall of 3.5 percent existed in 1992). Ultimately, Japan's ability to overcome the political issues and to get an adequate number of trained personnel will determine how well it can carry out its mission of defending Japan.
 

A mix of the good (potent destroyer force), the bad (limitations on training, and political support, limited replenishment ability) and the ugly (Warships built to mercentile standards!). Perhaps some lessons for our Navy here as well.
Dagny, this is not a battle over material goods. It's a moral crisis, the greatest the world has ever faced and the last. Our age is the climax of centuries of evil. We must put an end to it, once and for all, or perish - we, the men of the mind. It was our own guilt. We produced the wealth of the world - but we let our enemies write its moral code.

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Re: The Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread
« Reply #41 on: March 08, 2005, 10:29:34 »

China Steps Up Pressure on Taiwan

By ELAINE KURTENBACH
BEIJING (AP) - China unveiled a law Tuesday authorizing an attack if Taiwan moves toward formal independence, increasing pressure on the self-ruled island while warning other countries not to interfere. Taiwan denounced the legislation as a ``blank check to invade'' and announced war games aimed at repelling an attack.

The proposed anti-secession law, read out for the first time before the ceremonial National People's Congress, doesn't say what specific actions might invite a Chinese attack.

``If possibilities for a peaceful reunification should be completely exhausted, the state shall employ nonpeaceful means and other necessary measures to protect China's sovereignty and territorial integrity,'' Wang Zhaoguo, deputy chairman of the NPC's Standing Committee, told the nearly 3,000 legislators gathered in the Great Hall of the People.

Beijing claims Taiwan, split from China since 1949, as part of its territory. The communist mainland repeatedly has threatened to invade if Taiwan tries to make its independence permanent, and new law doesn't impose any new conditions or make new threats. But it lays out for the first time legal requirements for military action.
Taiwan's leaders warned that the move could backfire by angering the island's voting public.
Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council, which handles the island's China policy, said the law gives China's military ``a blank check to invade Taiwan'' and ``exposed the Chinese communists' attempt to use force to annex Taiwan and to be a regional power.''

``Our government lodges strong protest against the vicious attempt and brutal means ... to block Taiwanese from making their free choice,'' the council said in a statement.
Taiwanese Defense Ministry spokesman Liu Chih-chien said large-scale military exercises would be held from mid-April to August to build confidence in the island's military preparedness. Troops will practice knocking down Chinese missiles and fighting communist commandos.
Mainland lawmakers immediately expressed support for the measure, which is sure to be approved when they vote March 14. The NPC routinely approves all legislation already decided by Communist Party leaders.

``We must join hands and absolutely not allow Taiwan to separate from China,'' said Chang Houchun, a businessman and NPC member from southern China's Guangdong province.
Chinese officials say the law was prompted in part by Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian's plans for a referendum on a new constitution for the island that Beijing worries might include a declaration of independence.
Chen says the vote would be aimed at building a better political system, not at formalizing Taiwan's de facto independence.

The proposed law says Beijing regards Taiwan's future as an internal Chinese matter, rejecting ``any interference by outside forces.''
``Every sovereign state has the right to use necessary means to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity,'' said Wang.
The law says China's Cabinet and the government's Central Military Commission ``are authorized to decide on and execute nonpeaceful means and nonpeaceful measures.''
The United States has appealed to both sides to settle Taiwan's status peacefully, with no unilateral changes by either side. Washington is Taiwan's main arms supplier and could be drawn into any conflict.

In Taipei, Chen Chin-jun, a legislative leader of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, said the island wants peace and trade with China.
However, he said, ``We will not accept any resolution to allow the Chinese Communists to unilaterally decide Taiwan's future, and it will only antagonize the Taiwanese.''
China and Taiwan have no official ties and most direct travel and shipping between the two sides is banned. But Taiwanese companies have invested more than $100 billion in the mainland and the two sides carry on thriving indirect trade.

Until recently, China's military was thought to be incapable of carrying out an invasion across the 100-mile-wide Taiwan Strait. But Beijing has spent billions of dollars buying Russian-made submarines, destroyers and other high-tech weapons to extend the reach of the 2.5 million-member People's Liberation Army.
Chinese leaders have appealed in recent months for Taiwan to return to talks on unification. But they insist that Taiwanese leaders first declare that the two sides are ``one China'' - a condition that Chen has rejected.
In an apparent attempt to calm Taiwanese public anxiety, Wang said the law promises that Chinese military forces would try to avoid harming Taiwenese civilians. He said the rights of Taiwanese on China's mainland also would be protected.
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Offline CheersShag

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Re: The Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread
« Reply #42 on: March 08, 2005, 12:42:51 »
Crap, better work on my mandarin.

Offline Thucydides

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Re: The Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread
« Reply #43 on: March 08, 2005, 12:49:06 »
Concentrate on your principles of marksmanship first!
Dagny, this is not a battle over material goods. It's a moral crisis, the greatest the world has ever faced and the last. Our age is the climax of centuries of evil. We must put an end to it, once and for all, or perish - we, the men of the mind. It was our own guilt. We produced the wealth of the world - but we let our enemies write its moral code.

Offline CheersShag

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Re: The Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread
« Reply #44 on: March 08, 2005, 12:56:27 »
I meant for when they send us to Taiwan to repel the Chinese.
Wasn't saying I was giving up already!

Or were you just reminding me to practice my principles, which makes sense either way I suppose..

Would Taiwan be able to repel a PLA invasion?
Bit simple a question I suppose which would invoke a very long response, but I can't think of how to be more specific.


Offline Thucydides

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Re: The Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread
« Reply #45 on: March 08, 2005, 14:08:41 »
Short answer: it depends.

China could launch a gigantic attack under a wave of up to 700 medium range missiles, which would overwhelm the immediate defenses, but also shoot China's bolt. China would have to be very confident of a political or military environment which would preclude outside intervention.

The coalition of the willing would most likely be the United States and Japan, with other interested nations ranging from India to Australia, depending on how they see the Chinese threat. If China shoots its bolt, the coalition forces will basically counterattack and push the Chinese out. If China tries to maintain a reserve, the Tiawanese will have the ability to keep fighting as well. Either way it would be very messy.

Would Mr Dithers support Tiawan against China? Canada's record against naked agression hasn't been to sterling lately....China also sees Canada as a resource base; buying up oil and mineral rights and seeing us as "hewers of wood and drawers of water" for the 21rst century.
Dagny, this is not a battle over material goods. It's a moral crisis, the greatest the world has ever faced and the last. Our age is the climax of centuries of evil. We must put an end to it, once and for all, or perish - we, the men of the mind. It was our own guilt. We produced the wealth of the world - but we let our enemies write its moral code.

Offline Aden_Gatling

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Re: The Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread
« Reply #46 on: March 08, 2005, 14:38:31 »
the law promises that Chinese military forces would try to avoid harming Taiwenese civilians. He said the rights of Taiwanese on China's mainland also would be protected.

Yeah, right.



I suspect this has something to do with the recent declaration on the part of the US and Japan that the Taiwan Strait is a "common strategic objective": which is to say that it is more of a reaction to US posturing (more on this here: http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/edit/archives/2005/03/04/2003225416 ).

Interestingly, I was reading just the other day (in the context of this announcement) that Japan now arguably has the second 'best' Navy in the Pacific!  http://www.strategypage.com/dls/articles/200522521.asp
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Offline CBH99

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Re: The Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread
« Reply #47 on: March 08, 2005, 15:50:41 »
If China is serious about reclaiming Taiwan, which it appears it is - its going to be a LONG road ahead before the western powers, or the coalition, will be able to push the Chinese back.

China is a regional power.  They have the largest army on earth, and the largest air force on earth.  Now, in respect, their air force is still in the process of being modernized, and a majority of their aircraft are still 1960's and 1970's vintage aircraft.  But thats changing rather quickly, as they aquire more and more Russian electronics for their aircraft.

They also have a large brown water navy, that is armed to the teeth.  Sure, the Chinese don't have much in the name of blue water capability, but they don't need it.  They have a powerful brown water navy, that is more than capable of handling anything in the Taiwan Straight.  Their submarines, fast attack craft, and capital vessels are more than plenty enough to secure their objectives - and their missile arsenals could devastate Taiwan's defenses before Taiwan even has a chance to mobilize them.

Bottom line, China could secure Taiwan militarily rather quickly.  Once that is accomplished, its going to take an aweful lot of thick military muscle to push them back.  The United States is already spread thin with their occupation of Iraq, which means they won't be able to do much unless its primarily naval activity.  It'll be messy, any way you look at it.
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Offline OCdt.Banks

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Re: The Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread
« Reply #48 on: March 08, 2005, 16:50:37 »
Maybe the Us wont be able to put all its muscle into it but NATO and the U.N will condem the attack on Taiwan in less than a heart beat and most if not all(including Canada) allies will start putting together a force to tackle this threat. At least for our sakes Can you picture it PLA troops in Vancouver then in Edmonton then Calgary etc...Taiwan has also put alot of money into getting an anti-missile capability and out of those 700 missiles i bet less that half will find their mark!hopefully...
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Offline oldboy

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Re: The Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread
« Reply #49 on: March 08, 2005, 17:08:26 »
IMHO, first China definitely wouldn't "shoot its bolt" with 700 missiles, nor would it be a simple matter of any coalition "counterattacking" and pushing China out of one of its provinces.  This is a message to Taiwan, the US and Japan in no uncertain terms, thus "putting the ball in their court" so to speak.  Think of it from the Chinese perspective versus ours for a minute, this is a province of theirs that has special status like Hong Kong, Shanghai, etc.  I believe the Chinese are saying to Taiwan, accept it, (of course there is the big or else included in that!).

Don't forget China is a regional power, but considers itself "middle earth" when it comes to any Asian, NE Asian politics.  Thus it will always react to what it considers its national and strategic interests.  The question is what should we do about it, if anything?