Author Topic: North Korea (Superthread)  (Read 538295 times)

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Offline Thucydides

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Re: North Korea (Superthread)
« Reply #1725 on: March 14, 2018, 00:54:27 »
A longer article on President Trump's efforts to bring the DPRK to the table, by Austin Bay. The full article will be posted in the long article thread, but it is interesting to note that President Trump outlined a great deal of his strategy as far back as 1999. Obviously this has been thought through and refined in the nearly two decades between conception and execution, so while positive results cannot be guaranteed, it is still a great achievement to execute this much of the plan between January 2017 and now:

http://observer.com/2018/03/how-donald-trump-got-north-korea-open-to-giving-up-its-nuclear-weapons/

Quote
How Trump’s ‘Maximum Pressure’ Strategy Got North Korea to the Table
By Austin Bay • 03/13/18 6:00am

Donald Trump’s October 24, 1999 Meet the Press interview with Tim Russert is a historically illuminating flash forward to the most surprising, promising and history-altering opportunity since the Soviet Union collapsed: “denuclearizing” North Korea without the could-be belligerents waging a hideously destructive war that scars East Asia and seeds a global economic depression.

Yes, those are the stakes: millions of dead and trillions of debt.

In the interview, Russert says Trump once indicated if he were president he would attack North Korea preemptively in order to end its nuclear threat.

Despite Russert’s vapors and wailing, Trump’s grammatically-challenged beer and barbecue answer is a superb twofer. One: Trump answers Russert’s core question. Two: Trump accurately summarizes the American government’s spaghetti-spined responses to North Korea’s slow but insidious quest for nuclear weapons.

Trump says, “First I’d negotiate and be sure I could get the best deal possible… These people in three or four years are going to have nuclear weapons… The biggest problem this world has is nuclear proliferation. And we have a country out there in North Korea which is sort of whacko, which is not a bunch of dummies and they are developing nuclear weapons… If that negotiation doesn’t work then better solve the problem now than solve it later.”

Trump continues, “…Jimmy Carter, who I really like, he went over there. It was so soft these people are just laughing at us…. You know that this country went out and gave them nuclear reactors, free fuel for 10 years, we virtually tried to bribe them into stopping and they’re continuing to do what they are doing. And they are laughing at us… You want to do it in five years when they have warheads all over the place, every one of them pointed to New York City, to Washington… Is that when you want to do it? You’d better do it now. And if they think you’re serious… They’ll negotiate and it’ll never come to that.”

Trump is a man who intuitively seeks and finds leverage in business negotiations, and his reply to Russert reflects that. Since his election in November 2016, that skill is now applied to two entwined problems from Hell that for six decades have boggled U.S. foreign policy officials and the vain goblins at the Council on Foreign Relations: ending The Korean War and halting nuclear proliferation.
Dagny, this is not a battle over material goods. It's a moral crisis, the greatest the world has ever faced and the last. Our age is the climax of centuries of evil. We must put an end to it, once and for all, or perish - we, the men of the mind. It was our own guilt. We produced the wealth of the world - but we let our enemies write its moral code.

Offline pbi

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Re: North Korea (Superthread)
« Reply #1726 on: March 14, 2018, 07:24:33 »
On most grounds I have little time for Trump, but in this case I wish wholeheartedly for his success. A successful reduction of tensions in that part of the world could have interesting second and third order effects.

The big question in my mind is the role of China. How will they view a course of action which might ultimately lead to a unified Korea on their border? And possibly a Western-leaning Korea (If the re-unification of Germany is a useful model here? Would they see it as restricting their strategic freedom of action? Or as an unwelcome US diplomatic coup on their doorstep?
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Offline Journeyman

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Re: North Korea (Superthread)
« Reply #1727 on: March 14, 2018, 09:05:10 »
...... possibly a Western-leaning Korea (If the re-unification of Germany is a useful model here...
I think any reference to Germany may be tenuous at best.

Trump is no Konrad Adenauer;  previewing border wall prototypes (kind of like Ikea Berlin Wall shopping) after replacing the Secretary of State with an unquestioning yes-man -- a very  Politburo-esque move -- Trump is on the opposite side of that history.

As for the dictatorships' leadership, Egon Krenz (GDR's General Secretary at the time of reunification), wanted Germany together under Western-style democratic governance.  One of his big, previous stumbling blocks, besides the Soviet Union of course, was his predecessor, Erich Honecker, who loved the power he had (and I suspect, feared what the East Germans would do to him if given the freedom).  Despite Kim Jong Un's recent calls for Korean unification, he is much  more of a Honecker than a Krenz.
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Re: North Korea (Superthread)
« Reply #1728 on: March 14, 2018, 10:08:31 »
My, personal, belief is that China wants the Koreas reunified under Seoul's hand ... North Korea is a drag on China ~ it is, from time to time, a handy tool to use against Japan and America but, on balance, it has far, Far, FAR, less "value" than does South Korea which is a major investor in China and a major source of technology.

I wonder: does Team Trump have any idea about what it wants to do in, for, about, with and to East Asia?

What is useful is that President Trump and Kim Jong-un are "talking," or, at least, exchanging rude Tweets. Churchill was, of course, right about "jaw jaw" being better than "war war."

I also wonder about the role and position and loyalties of Kim Yo Jong, the younger sister of the North Korean loony dictator who made such a splash during the Winter Olympics and who may have extended the invitation for preliminary talks. I say "loyalties" because I suspect that many North Koreans have deeply divided loyalties including to Korea, period.
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Offline Thucydides

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Re: North Korea (Superthread)
« Reply #1729 on: March 21, 2018, 12:34:07 »
The ROK deploys an anti-artillery brigade with heavy, long range precision missiles to strike the DPRK's artillery parks. They have also recently announced the purchase of more "Taurus" long range bunker busting cruise missiles, capable of being launched by ROK F-15's. The ability to push back against the DPRK's forward deployment of artillery in hardened bunkers and shelters is increasing:

https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2018/03/19/south-korea-to-deploy-artillery-killer-to-destroy-north-korean-bunkers/

Quote
South Korea to deploy ‘artillery killer’ to destroy North Korean bunkers
By: Jeff Jeong     1 day ago
 
SEOUL, South Korea — The South Korean Army plans to deploy surface-to-surface missiles in a newly created counter-artillery brigade by October, with the aim of destroying North Korea’s hardened long-range artillery sites near the Demilitarized Zone, should conflict erupt on the Korean Peninsula.

The plan is part of South Korea‘s defense reform for developing an offensive operations scheme, a defense source said. The tactical missiles are developed locally.

“The Ministry of National Defense has approved a plan to create an artillery brigade under a ground forces operations command to be inaugurated in October. The plan is to be reported to President Moon Jae-in next month as part of the ‘Defense Reform 2.0’ policy,” the source said. “The brigade’s mission is fairly focused on destroying North Korea’s long-range guns more rapidly and effectively, should conflict arise”

The three-year development of the GPS-guided Korea Tactical Surface-to-Surface Missile was completed last year. Hanwha Corporation, a precision-guided missile maker, led the development in partnership with the state-funded Agency for Defense Development, or ADD.

The missile, dubbed “artillery killer,” has a range of more than 120 kilometers and can hit targets with a 2-meter accuracy, according to ADD and Hanwha officials.

Four missiles can be launched almost simultaneously from a fixed launch pad. The missiles can penetrate bunkers and hardened, dug-in targets several meters underground.

“North Korea’s long-range artillery systems deployed along the border pose significant threats to the security of the capital area of South Korea,” said retired Lt. Gen. Shin Won-sik, a former operational director of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. “The counter-artillery brigade is expected to play a key role in neutralizing the North’s long-range artillery fire power, as the new surface-to-surface missile is capable of destroy the hideout of artillery forces.”

The artillery brigade is also to operate the Chunmoo Multiple Launch Rocket System, which can fire three types of ammunition: 130mm nonguided rockets; 227mm nonguided rockets; and 239mm guided rockets. The hitting range of the rockets are 36 kilometers, 80 kilometers and 160 kilometers, respectively.

According to the 2016 Defense White Paper, North Korea has some 8,600 towed and self-propelled artillery, as well as 5,500 multiple-launch rockets. Seventy percent of them were deployed near the border.

North Korea has forward-deployed 340 long-range guns that can fire 15,000 rounds per hour at Seoul and the surrounding metropolitan area.
Dagny, this is not a battle over material goods. It's a moral crisis, the greatest the world has ever faced and the last. Our age is the climax of centuries of evil. We must put an end to it, once and for all, or perish - we, the men of the mind. It was our own guilt. We produced the wealth of the world - but we let our enemies write its moral code.

Offline tomahawk6

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Re: North Korea (Superthread)
« Reply #1730 on: March 21, 2018, 14:19:28 »
Kim isnt going to give away anything of value.he wont give up his nukes.That is a program with Iran also as a beneficiary.If Iran shows off it has a nuke then Saudi will buy one from Pakistan.Kim wants sanctions gone how he accomplishes that is gonna be very intriguing.He may offer to end his current program leaving his current weapons alone.Alot of ways to game the system.

Offline Loachman

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Re: North Korea (Superthread)
« Reply #1731 on: April 10, 2018, 17:13:53 »
https://www.nationalreview.com/2018/04/north-korean-artillery-koksan-gun-could-be-inaccurate-unreliable/

The 170 mm Koksan, North Korea’s Not-So-Frightening Tool of Terror

By Mike Fredenburg

April 5, 2018 6:30 AM

The DPRK's long gun could become wildly inaccurate and unreliable if it is used to attack Seoul.

Even if you typically don’t read defense-related publications, there’s a good chance you have read about North Korea’s fearsome self-propelled Koksan guns, which are perched along its border with South Korea. These 170 mm guns are, it is said, poised to rain thousands of deadly rounds upon the heads of the helpless citizens of Seoul if the DPRK is provoked.

Driving home the threat, the North Korean regime has for years threatened to use its artillery to turn Seoul to into a “sea of fire.” The threat is taken seriously by Western journalists. In 2003, Tony Karon wrote in Time that North Korea has the capacity to “flatten Seoul in the first half-hour of any confrontation.” In 2009, David C. Kang and Victor D. Cha speculated in Foreign Policy that a war on the Korean peninsula would cost about a trillion dollars in property damage and 1 million casualties, including 52,000 U.S. military casualties. In 2017, an article by Franz-Stefan Gady ran in the Diplomat with the description: “The first 24 hours of war on the Korean peninsula could cost hundreds of thousands of lives.”

But these articles and their ilk are long on emotion and short on knowledgeable analysis. They are playing right into the hands of Kim’s propaganda campaign, a campaign designed to convince an uneducated Western public and appeasement-minded politicians that even a North Korea with deliverable nuclear weapons and a history of attacking and killing South Koreans is preferable to the devastation the dictatorial regime can unleash with its conventional weapons.

Offline E.R. Campbell

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Re: North Korea (Superthread)
« Reply #1732 on: April 25, 2018, 10:18:23 »
Is this (from the South China Morning Post) why Kim Jong-un offered to suspend nuclear tests? Does he have no choice? Did his test site (mountain) collapse?
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Re: North Korea (Superthread)
« Reply #1733 on: April 25, 2018, 10:50:46 »
Did his test site (mountain) collapse?
I wonder what the prevailing winds are, for anyone downrange.  Chernobyl? Fukushima? Semipalatinsk test site?  :pop:
There’s nothing more maddening than debating someone who doesn’t know history, doesn’t read books, and frames their myopia as virtue. The level of unapologetic conjecture I’ve encountered lately isn’t just frustrating, it’s retrogressive, unprecedented, and absolutely terrifying.
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Re: North Korea (Superthread)
« Reply #1734 on: April 25, 2018, 12:25:43 »
I wonder what the prevailing winds are, for anyone downrange.  Chernobyl? Fukushima? Semipalatinsk test site?  :pop:


That appears to be the main Chinese concern.

The mountain is in the far North, very near the Chinese border and within "range" of a couple of smallish, i.e. one or two million people, Chinese cities.
It is ill that men should kill one another in seditions, tumults and wars; but it is worse to bring nations to such misery, weakness and baseness
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Offline tomahawk6

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Re: North Korea (Superthread)
« Reply #1735 on: April 25, 2018, 12:34:11 »
If he follows through and shuts down his missile program,the US will likely agree with pulling the US Army out of the ROK,but leave the USAF in place to hedge our bets.

Offline kkwd

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Re: North Korea (Superthread)
« Reply #1736 on: April 26, 2018, 21:52:17 »
A meeting the likes of that hasn't been seen in a long time. But everybody knows you hope for the best and expect the worst when dealing with North Korea.

https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/north-korea-south-korea-summit-intl/
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Re: North Korea (Superthread)
« Reply #1737 on: April 27, 2018, 10:54:56 »
Is this (from the South China Morning Post) why Kim Jong-un offered to suspend nuclear tests? Does he have no choice? Did his test site (mountain) collapse?

I think it played part of it, the site was problematic and was starting to piss off his main ally. NK as a regional thorn was useful, a nuke armed NK might get uppity towards China as well and was creating to much of a threat to Chinese plans. It was also clear that instead of the US backing down, they were going to ramp up the defenses of SK and emplace weapons and systems that would reach into China as well. NK can't compete at that level and it's once vaunted conventional artillery threat was quickly being targeted for destruction in event of a war. The USSR could not afford an arms race with the west, NK never stood a chance. I don't trust him one bit and expect him to stab everyone in the back the first chance he gets.

Offline George Wallace

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Re: North Korea (Superthread)
« Reply #1738 on: April 27, 2018, 22:35:10 »
A friend of mine wrote this, and many Trump haters are not going to like it:

Quote
Trump probably deserves the Nobel Peace Prize for bring DPRK to the table. Here's why

First, he appeared unpredictable, radically different from the last 30 years of American leadership, and that alone was enough to scare North Korea. If you doubt this I challenge you to ask this question: Did you ever utter a phrase similar to “Trump as President is terrifying” or “Trump will lead us to World War III”?

Even if you didn't, plenty of others did.

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/matthew-d-taylor/donald-trumps-recipe-for-_1_b_9527534.html

If leftist Americans were scared, we should know damn well that the hermit kingdom - that cannot match America’s power in any sense - would be terrified.

Second, Trump directly used harsh language, direct threats of FIRE & FURY, and directly lashed out at North Korea and KJU. Similar to the first point, this was so different and intimidating that it provoked North Korea into trying to display its strength on a regular basis. And eventually those shows-of-force failed. Failed to the point of the DPRK’s test site collapsing.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/10/31/collapse-north-korea-nuclear-test-site-leaves-200-dead/


Third, Trump closed sanction loopholes which made past sanctions hurt more.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-us-envoy/u-s-wants-to-see-north-korea-sanctions-bite-no-options-ruled-out-idUSKCN1BQ1NP


Fourth, Trump pressured China. China has long treated the DPRK like a ******* little brother, defending them reluctantly but ultimately only out of their own interests. China doesn’t rely on North Korea, in fact China’s trade with South Korea has been far more profitable, but China relies on there being a buffer zone between their borders and the United States (in addition to the previously stated fact China doesn’t want 25,000,000 refugees).

But who is China’s largest trading partner? The United States, of course.

https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/chn/

So Trump threatened China: put pressure on North Korea or we will put pressure on you. China started by rejecting a coal shipment from North Korea.

http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/04/11/china-rejects-north-korean-coal-shipments-after-missile-test-and-u-s-pressure/

When China wasn’t helping enough, Trump called them out.

https://edition.cnn.com/.../president-donald.../index.html



Fifth, Trump created new sanctions and got China to join in. That first time was in September 2017.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/21/trump-north-korea-executive-order-china

He issued another round in February 2018.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/23/us/politics/trump-north-korea-sanctions.html


Sixth, Trump demonstrated that having a superpower "big brother" as a patron would not deter him from military action against a rogue regime.

https://www.nbcnews.com/video/russia-threatens-retaliation-for-any-u-s-strike-on-syria-1208188995617

Trump set this example with his action against the Syrian regime, despite Russian patronage of Assad.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-43769332



Seventh, Trump committed to a dramatic show of force with the deployment of carriers within striking range of DPRK.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/4889670/north-korea-us-navy-aircraft-carrier-battle-latest-group-war-games-korean-peninsula/



Eighth, Trump's willingness to buck decades of US foreign policy consensus presented KJU the best opportunity for normalizing relations he'll ever have. The US Deep State (i.e. all the bureaucrats, academics, think tanks and corporate interests) who couldn't visualize NK coming to the table, constrained previous administrations through close-minded advice... Trump was arrogant enough to disregard this advice, knowing it was born from repetition and resignation.


President Trump did not single-handedly bring Kim Jong Un to the negotiating table, but he sure as hell was the primary motivator. President Xi and President Moon deserve credit too. Hell, even Kim Jong-Un, for the criminal he is, deserves credit for bringing his country to the table. We may not even get peace or denuclearization, as much as that sucks to acknowledge, but the fact we are even having this discussion outside of a thought experiment is something President Trump deserves credit for.

What's amazing is that leftist malcontents are furious that Trump may actually earn a Nobel Peace Prize when Obama got his just for showing up with the right skin colour.

So?  Is he crazy like a fox?
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Offline SeaKingTacco

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Re: North Korea (Superthread)
« Reply #1739 on: April 27, 2018, 23:39:40 »
I have no idea how this is all going to end up, but it sure is better right now in the Koreas than it has been for years.

Offline Colin P

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Re: North Korea (Superthread)
« Reply #1740 on: April 30, 2018, 13:10:18 »
Happy that steps are being taken in the right direction, but I don't trust the fat little puke or his regime. They will start to weasel if Trump is unelected.

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Re: North Korea (Superthread)
« Reply #1741 on: April 30, 2018, 14:28:58 »
Why is it that Donald Trump wants an agreement with North Korea but wants to tear up the one with Iran?

Kim would be mad to give up his weapons. He might concede his long range ballistic missile program but nothing more. He's not going to end up on the end of a rope like Saddam or with a bayonet up his rear end like Ghadaffi.

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Re: North Korea (Superthread)
« Reply #1742 on: April 30, 2018, 18:15:23 »
Happy that steps are being taken in the right direction, but I don't trust the fat little puke or his regime. They will start to weasel if Trump is unelected.

We will have to keep Trump In power In order to maintain peace and avoid nuclear war.
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Re: North Korea (Superthread)
« Reply #1743 on: April 30, 2018, 19:45:42 »
https://www.nationalreview.com/news/south-korean-president-trump-deserves-nobel-peace-prize/

South Korean President: Trump Deserves Nobel Peace Prize

By Jack Crowe April 30, 2018 12:28 PM   

South Korean president Moon Jae-in said Monday that President Trump deserves a Nobel Peace Prize for his role in spurring negotiations between North and South Korea after a decades-long stand off.

“President Trump should win the Nobel Peace Prize. What we need is only peace,” Moon told a meeting of senior secretaries in response to the suggestion that he deserved the award, according to a South Korean official who briefed the media.

Moon has praised Trump’s efforts to open dialogue between the North and the South, saying in January that the American president “deserves big credit for bringing about the inter-Korean talks. It could be a resulting work of the U.S.-led sanctions and pressure.”

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Re: North Korea (Superthread)
« Reply #1744 on: April 30, 2018, 19:47:29 »
The butterfly effect if that came to pass would be epic.

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Re: North Korea (Superthread)
« Reply #1745 on: April 30, 2018, 21:17:48 »
Why is it that Donald Trump wants an agreement with North Korea but wants to tear up the one with Iran?

Kim would be mad to give up his weapons. He might concede his long range ballistic missile program but nothing more. He's not going to end up on the end of a rope like Saddam or with a bayonet up his rear end like Ghadaffi.

Well... It appears as though North Korea may want peace and to join the free world... meanwhile Iran has been secretly advancing its nuclear weapons program (according to recent news).  Radical islamists with a nuke would be exponentially worse then anything the world has faces thus far, in my opinion. 

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Re: North Korea (Superthread)
« Reply #1746 on: May 01, 2018, 04:11:25 »
I agree, Kim has absolutely zero motivation go completely dismantle his nuclear weapons programs under the current climate.  None.

Every single world leader that gives up it's WMD programs ends up on the receiving end of Uncle Sam's propaganda & subsequent overkill military action in due time, and Kim knows this.

Where I THINK the difference is, is that China isn't going to let US forces be stationed any further north than they already are.  China doesn't want the US military on it's border, nor does it want 15 million refugees flooding across either.

So because Kim is next door to China, and China isn't going to let the US military lurch right up to it's borders, I think Kim has an advantage that other world leaders didn't have.  China is in a position to put it's foot down far faster & with more resolve than Russia could 10 - 15 years ago.
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Re: North Korea (Superthread)
« Reply #1747 on: May 01, 2018, 07:24:49 »
... meanwhile Iran has been secretly advancing its nuclear weapons program (according to recent news). 
Do you have a credible source? 

I've seen two key stories:

1) Netanyahu accusing Iran of trying to obscure nuclear weapons files in 2015 and moving them to a secret location in Tehran last year. The most telling line (beyond "Tonight, I'm here to tell you one thing: Iran lied -- big time," which could have been written by the US President) is "Iran planned at the highest level to continue work related to nuclear weapons under different guises and using the same personnel."  LINK

"Iran planned..." Maintaining a potential ability to re-start a program is not the same as currently conducting operations. Most of Netanyahu's speech was a rehash of what Iran did between 1999-2003, providing absolutely no evidence that Iran was in violation of the agreement or hiding nuclear weapons production.


2) The White House published a statement saying that "Iran has a robust, clandestine nuclear weapons program that it has tried and failed to hide from the world and from its own people." They've already back-pedaled, saying 'oopsie, it was a typo; we meant Iran had  a robust nuclear weapons program.'  LINK

Notwithstanding the US Intelligence community assessment that Iran has indeed suspended its nuclear program, Trump is saying that Netanyahu's announcement shows he was "100% right" in criticizing the 2015 pact (naturally).

Do I trust Iran?  No. 

Have I seen any credible evidence that they are contravening the 2015 Nuclear Agreement?  Also no.

There’s nothing more maddening than debating someone who doesn’t know history, doesn’t read books, and frames their myopia as virtue. The level of unapologetic conjecture I’ve encountered lately isn’t just frustrating, it’s retrogressive, unprecedented, and absolutely terrifying.
~Chris Evans

Offline Colin P

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Re: North Korea (Superthread)
« Reply #1748 on: May 01, 2018, 11:40:08 »
Why is it that Donald Trump wants an agreement with North Korea but wants to tear up the one with Iran?

Kim would be mad to give up his weapons. He might concede his long range ballistic missile program but nothing more. He's not going to end up on the end of a rope like Saddam or with a bayonet up his rear end like Ghadaffi.

Because the Iranian deal sucks and is worthless?

Offline Fishbone Jones

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Re: North Korea (Superthread)
« Reply #1749 on: May 01, 2018, 13:10:46 »
I'm glad they're talking. I'm glad KJU made the overtures. I'm glad Trump was given the credit he deserves, by South Korea. I'm glad China invited KJU to lunch, although I don't think KJU got to say much. I'm going to wait now and see how the talks start and see what happens. There appear to be a ton of 'what ifs' and a huge amount of people not even willing to see where this goes before they start their doom and gloom scenarios. The fact that both North and South have agreed to end the war is a fantastic and huge step in the right direction. I'm going to try and be an optimist about the whole thing, until, and if, it starts unravelling.

Now for Iran. Never trusted them, likely never will. According to the Israelis, who claim irrefutable proof in thousands of pages of intel, that Iran is disregarding and violating the Obama brokered agreement. Merkle and Macron have both come to try convince Trump to stay on board with the deal. They get a look at the Israeli intelligence this week when the EU gets briefed by Israel. Once the evidence, or lack of, is there, we'll see what happens. I would hope everyone agrees with Israel and puts their foot down on Iran. With a stated goal to wipe Israel off the map, I think it's time for Iran to get dragged out of the middle ages. Kicking and screaming if need be, but a world consensus on appropriate action should make them stand up and take notice. We've learned, that with terrorist muslim states, they can't be bought (they'll just steal the money and won't change anything), the can't be trusted because they still, religiously believe the can lie to infidels, even in state meetings. There is not one redeeming value to that country.
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