Topic: The Next Conservative Leader

[E.R. Campbell]

Although I never factored him into the leadership sweepstakes, it is still a bit of a surprise, to me, to learn that Ted Menzies will not run again in 2015.

Ted Menzies is Minister of State for Finance and might, in my mind, have been in line for the Finance job IF Jim Flaherty moves on. Maybe his resignation signals that Flaherty will not move.

And now CTV's Bob Fife is reporting that Diane Ablonczy, Minister of State of Foreign Affairs (Americas and Consular Affairs) will also not run again in 2015. Once again, while I did not factor into to my leadership equation she has been far more asset than liability to the CPC and to Prime Minister Harper.

[E.R. Campbell]

In the National Post, John Ivison speculates that, despite her poor French, he calls it a "work in progress," Lisa Raitt should be considered as a contender.


Federal transport minister Lisa Raitt, speaks to members of the media in Lac-Megantic, Quebec,
July 17, 2013.                                                                                   Tyler Anderson/National Post

John Ivison also says that, "the front-runners are already well-established in that race — James Moore and Jason Kenney are said to have nascent organizations that could be fired up at moment’s notice. Former minister Jim Prentice keeps a watchful eye on Ottawa from his perch on Bay Street, while Peter MacKay may yet re-ignite an interest in leadership that appears to have cooled as he embraces marriage and fatherhood."

[PPCLI Guy]

And who ever wins next will be replaced by Chris Alexander........

[E.R. Campbell]

And who ever wins next will be replaced by Chris Alexander........

Mr Alexander has to "earn his spurs" first by holding on to and, preferably, increasing the CPC's edge in the 905 belt. If he can manage that then his political stock will be HUGE.

Under redistribution BC will have 42 seats, AB will have 34 (combined they almost equal QC) but the 905 belt, alone, has 35+/- (depending on how you define the "belt") ~ it's like AB, all on its own.

[E.R. Campbell]

...
Let me redo the list:

                         
Rona Ambrose                    John Baird                          Jason Kenney                     James Moore                       Peter MacKay                     Jim Prentice
Alberta, Age: 43                  Ontario, Age: 43                 Saskatchewan, Age: 44        BC, Age: 36                        Nova Scotia, Age: 47           Alberta, Age: 56
Libertarian                          Moderate                           Social Conservative              Libertarian                          Moderate                           Moderate

All lily white, no Francophones, one woman, all under 60, one under 40.

I remain convinced that Prentice is the best candidate ~ but I tend to overrate gravitas and underrate the value of social conservatism. I agree with others that Ambrose is the least likely to lead the party. I also think that, on balance, MacKay loses to Prentice and Ambrose loses to Moore, so my choices are:

First:                    Jim Prentice
Tied for Second:  John Baird or Jason Kenney
Fourth:                James Moore
Tied for Fifth:       Rona Ambrose or Peter MacKay

I'm bumping this because I think that the Senate Scandal^® has stained the Prime Minister's reputation for personal integrity.

It's easy enough for me to explain the fact (and it is a fact) that the centralizatin of too much power in the PMO began 45 years ago, under Pierre Trudeau, but the other fact is that Stephen Harper's PMO crossed an important ethical line. So, Justice Gomery concluded, did Jean Chrétien's ... but M. Chrétien and the Liberal Party paid a political price for that. I doubt Prime Minister Harper is immune to that.

I can, without straining my imagination too much, construct a scenario in which Prime Minister Harper decides, next year, 2014, that he cannot, under existing circumstances, lead the Conservatives to another victory, not even a minority, and decides that the "Hail Mary" play ~ a new, fresh, leader ~ is the CPC's best (only?) hope.

I might, however rejig, my prediction:

Tied for First after five ballots: Jason Kenney and Jim Prentice;
Third:                                       John Baird;
Also Rans:                                Rona Ambrose, Peter MacKay and James Moore.

[milnews.ca]

He's a pretty good man, but do you think Jim Prentice'll get back into the saddle to 1)  rewin a seat, and 2)  go for the leadership, especially from a gig like this?  I have zero insider knowledge about such things, so I'd love to hear from those who may hear things in his old riding/stomping grounds.

[pbi]

It's easy enough for me to explain the fact (and it is a fact) that the centralizatin of too much power in the PMO began 45 years ago, under Pierre Trudeau, but the other fact is that Stephen Harper's PMO crossed an important ethical line. So, Justice Gomery concluded, did Jean Chrétien's ... but M. Chrétien and the Liberal Party paid a political price for that. I doubt Prime Minister Harper is immune to that.

Two points:

-as part of any reform of our political system to make it more accountable, transparent, and democratic, I believe that the PMO has got to be pushed back into its box. You are right to say that its insidious growth has not respected any particular party lines: people like power, etc, etc.; but IMHO it has become almost a mini-GoC on its own. I don't expect anything to happen right now, but maybe an election might bring changes; and

-although things are beginning to look worse every morning for the PM, I still cling to the idea that he is not a fundamentally dishonest nor corrupt individual. I don't love everything about him and his version of Toryism, but I have never seen him in the same light as say, TMWNSNBM*.

* The Mayor Whose Name Shall Not Be Mentioned

[E.R. Campbell]

He's a pretty good man, but do you think Jim Prentice'll get back into the saddle to 1)  rewin a seat, and 2)  go for the leadership, especially from a gig like this?  I have zero insider knowledge about such things, so I'd love to hear from those who may hear things in his old riding/stomping grounds.

I wouldn't if I were him, but ... he retains immense levels of 'popularity' in some conservative circles. He's got more gravitas than all the rest combined. Being away from parliament over the past few years might be a HUGE political advantage and, I believe, he has an agenda, for Canada, which he can implement, best, from the PM's seat.

[E.R. Campbell]

Two points:

-as part of any reform of our political system to make it more accountable, transparent, and democratic, I believe that the PMO has got to be pushed back into its box. You are right to say that its insidious growth has not respected any particular party lines: people like power, etc, etc.; but IMHO it has become almost a mini-GoC on its own. I don't expect anything to happen right now, but maybe an election might bring changes; and

-although things are beginning to look worse every morning for the PM, I still cling to the idea that he is not a fundamentally dishonest nor corrupt individual. I don't love everything about him and his version of Toryism, but I have never seen him in the same light as say, TMWNSNBM*.

* The Mayor Whose Name Shall Not Be Mentioned

But actually being honest will not help. The media is is full, rabid, pursuit, howling and screaming ... it's not about media bias, not at all, it is all about Gotcha! journalism, about which the late George Bain reminded us back in 1994. Every reporter in Ottawa wants to be the one who brought down a prime minister ... for some this prime minister would be the best prize of all.

[milnews.ca]

.... He's got more gravitas than all the rest combined .... Being away from parliament over the past few years might be a HUGE political advantage ....

True, and good point/agreed, respectively.

[dapaterson]

In the immortal words of Doonesbury, confirmed bachelors are just so fascinating.


Also interesting is Jason Kenney's decision to start drawing a line where the mayor of Toronto is concerned; I'm curious as to whether that's a party ploy to test the waters, or an individual ploy to get out in front of the rest of the pack for the inevitable Next Leader competition.

[E.R. Campbell]

In the immortal words of Doonesbury, confirmed bachelors are just so fascinating.


Also interesting is Jason Kenney's decision to start drawing a line where the mayor of Toronto is concerned; I'm curious as to whether that's a party ploy to test the waters, or an individual ploy to get out in front of the rest of the pack for the inevitable Next Leader competition.

My guess is: both. Even more guesswork: Kenney freelanced that in order to both (again) spare the prime minister any embarrassing need to do so (thereby earning even more brownie points) and to establish himself as an independent leader in the eyes of the grassroots. Jason Kenney is an impressive politician. Even though I do not share, I don't even approve of, his social views I would be happy to see him in 24 Sussex Drive ... especially when the alternative is Justin Trudeau. My first choice is still Jim Prentice, who, I think, is best for me and for Canada, but I have few problems with Kenney, none of them "show stoppers."

[Remius]

Also interesting is Jason Kenney's decision to start drawing a line where the mayor of Toronto is concerned; I'm curious as to whether that's a party ploy to test the waters, or an individual ploy to get out in front of the rest of the pack for the inevitable Next Leader competition.

I doubt that it was a party ploy to test the waters, the CPC usually relies on smaller fish to do that not senior cabinet members.  I think it's likely the latter.  And it is a smart move.  Not commenting is likely worse since it implies collusion, or at least tacit support (not that it is the case but the media and critic will try anything to link the PM or any conservative to the Mayor of Toronto) and Minister Kenney drew a clear line without any real damage.  The media asks, question answered, anything else?  No, story ends as far he's involved and likely the media are not going to ask him anymore questions about it.  He also has no links to this going into a potential leadership race.

Minister Flaherty went a different but also very effective route.  "Yes I am close to the family."  Making this a personal issue and not necessarily a political one.  His emotional response (I believe it was genuine) also helped show that.

And finally I think the Ford brothers did the CPC a favour by stating outright that no one but Flaherty (a family friend) has ever helped them or supported them.  Whether this is true or not is another thing but it signals to critics that they are on their own. 

[PPCLI Guy]

In the immortal words of Doonesbury, confirmed bachelors are just so fascinating.

You leave John Baird alone!

[E.R. Campbell]

I'm posting this here because the two articles suggest that prime Minister Harper cannot survive until 2015 because the Senate Scandal^® is so toxic that it overwhelms everything else.

Stephen Mahar, writing a widely syndicated column, says that "the RCMP dumped an 81-page bag of burning refuse on the steps of the Prime Minister’s Office, journalists and opposition MPs have sensibly focused on a question that could undo the prime minister: What did he know about the secret $90,000 payment from his chief of staff to Sen. Mike Duffy?" and "The burning bag of refuse will not be disposed of easily." It shows, he suggests that Prime Minister Harper's PMO and, indeed, many of his legislators were, at the very least, unethical.

Thomas Walcom, writing in the Toronto Star suggests, not surprisingly, given that he is a star Star columnist, that Prime Minister Harper should step down, soon, and make way for e.g. Jason Kenney.

I know I'm repeating myself, but Harold Wilson's old adage that a week is a long time in politics is valid, and on that basis we have nearly 100 "long times," i.e. something akin to an eternity, until an election in October 2015.

But if the Tories manage to lose Brandon-Souris on Monday it will be, likely, because of the Senate Scandal^® and, especially because of the prime minister's heavy handed, indeed, in my opinion inept handing of the affair. We have discussed, before, that Prime Minister Harper seems unable to ever admit anything, much less apologize ... maybe because history suggests that Canadians don't react well, at the polls, to a bit of contrition. St Laurent apologized for invoking closure in the Pipeline Debate ... Diefenbaker won the election. Diefenbaker apologized for dithering on nukes ... Pearson won the election. Clark apologized for a 18¢/gallon gas tax ... Trudeau won the election. Martin apologized, profusely, for AdScan ... Harper won the election. In any event, if Brandon-Souris goes Liberals, which some polls suggest it might, then his leadership will be weakened and the ambitions of possible contenders will be strengthened.

[Fishbone Jones]

Haven't seen this here. Was wondering if it's just wishful thinking on Ivison's part and he's trying to spark more controversy. No one else seems to have picked it up or is taking it seriously.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/...er-he-returns/

John Ivison: As PM prepares for Israel trip, speculation abounds: Will he resign after he returns?
John Ivison | 04/12/13 12:49 PM ET

 As Conservatives gathered to mark the start of the Christmas party season, it was curious how few were talking about the Senate.

 That’s yesterday’s news. All the chatter was about the Prime Minister: Will he or won’t he? Step down, that is.

 One person said that Stephen Harper’s first ever trip to Israel was originally scheduled for March and was brought forward. Big decisions are being put off, the Conservative said, and there is open speculation that Mr. Harper will return from the Middle East in triumph and announce he plans to resign as Prime Minister before Parliament returns for the spring session.

 Not so, says Jason MacDonald, Mr. Harper’s director of communications, who confirmed different dates were looked at for the trip but the final decision was based on other obligations and the House schedule. “The Prime Minister remains focused on ensuring our government delivers on the priorities of Canadians: jobs, the economy and keeping our communities safe,” he said.

 That is hardly likely to dampen speculation that the Prime Minister is weighing his options. If the decision to go has been made, Mr. Harper has likely kept it to himself and an extremely tight group around him.

 People who see him on a regular basis say there is nothing in his current demeanour to indicate he is in flight mode. The incentives to stay, apart from the perks of office, include moving to number six in the list of Canada’s longest-serving prime ministers, from number nine, within the next 12 months.

 But the recent by-election results have rattled Conservative MPs in marginal seats. Angst is deepening and talk has turned to how the Prime Minister can recover from trust numbers that are rock bottom. “No one has the answer precisely because no one believes it is possible,” said one MP. “Could it be that the man who did nothing wrong loses his leadership because no one believes him?”

If the backbench is reaching that conclusion, rest assured Mr. Harper has already calculated the odds.

 It seems apparent that he would like to lead the Conservative Party into the next election. Most of the MPs I have spoken to think this remains the party’s best shot at winning.

 They point out the campaign to present Justin Trudeau as a lightweight who can’t be trusted to run the economy is hardly out of the gate yet. They say the idea that the early Conservative attack ads have backfired is specious. Research from both parties suggest voters believe it is inevitable that Mr. Trudeau will be prime minister one day. But it also suggests they don’t think he is ready yet and the Tories will help reinforce that impression.

 This government has made the mistake of growing old — an aging process that has been hastened by it deserting many of its ideals.
 
 Tory optimists also say the economy is finally showing signs of recovery and the government will enter the 2015 election campaign with the budget balanced, taxes cut and unemployment at manageable levels.

 But a reviving economy presents its own problems. If things are humming along, it is harder to warn voters against taking a “risk” on Mr. Trudeau or the NDP’s Tom Mulcair.

 People who know Mr. Harper say he has no desire to return to minority government, or worse, lose to a Trudeau. Yet the odds look extremely long on being returned as leader of another majority.

 This government has made the mistake of growing old — an aging process that has been hastened by it deserting many of its ideals.

 Mr. Harper may conclude that people have simply grown fed up of seeing him around and it is in the interests of the party, and the broader Conservative movement, for him to retire.

 The chat on the party circuit this week quickly turned from “will he or won’t he?” to “who’s next?”

The recent by-election results have rattled Conservative MPs in marginal seats. Angst is deepening
 .
 The name that springs to everyone’s lips is Jason Kenney, the Employment Minister, who seems to be in high dudgeon these days at some of the dumber decisions coming out of the Prime Minister’s Office.

 Yet, for any number of reasons — including his overt pro-life position — Mr. Kenney is said to believe the crown can never be his. If true, he is the ideal position to be king (or queen) maker.

 It seems to me that the departure of Stephen Harper, quite inconceivable not so long ago, is now eminently conceivable. And the answer to the “who’s next” question is: “Whoever Jason Kenney wants it to be.”

[E.R. Campbell]

Well, there's this, from Gable in the Globe and Mail:


Source: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/december-editorial-cartoons/article15688440/#dashboard/follows/

I think some Conservatives agree; the first duty of the leader is to lead ... to lead the party into government. When that looks doubtful, and assuming the platform/policies are OK,  then a new leader might be the right answer.


-----


But, Mods, might this be merged with the Next Conservative leader thread?

[milnews.ca]

But, Mods, might this be merged with the Next Conservative leader thread?

Sounds good - done.

[Brad Sallows]

>was wondering if it's just wishful thinking on Ivison's part

I don't know Ivison's politics, but rest assured there is a large contingent of pot-stirrers out there whose interest in expense account abuse is much less than their interest in trying to generate a self-fulfilling expectation that Harper will vacate his office as soon as possible.

Until something more useful comes along, expect the usual gang of whiners to continue pumping air into this one.

[Rocky Mountains]

Prentice?  He's simply Justin Trudeau without his mother's brain genes.  Why do we want a liberal to lead the Conservatives?  Conservative scandals haven't had traction.  What kind of a scandal is repaying $91,000 to the government.  All the statements by police to obtain warrants have to implicate people or they wouldn't get the warrant.  It doesn't mean it's true, just the cop's spin.

The election is a year or two away and the best weapon is Harper himself.  Once the tough campaign questions start Trudeau will fold.  He had a walk through to get the leadership.  Nobody at all challenged him on an intellectual basis and he's had a media holiday.  He isn't going to become prime minister on his girl hair alone.

[Thucydides]

If you go the "Liberal Party of Canada Leadership" thread, you can see the Young Dauphin is apparently on holiday from his own caucus as well....http://forums.army.ca/forums/index.php/topic,107637.msg1275764.html#msg1275764

[E.R. Campbell]

Prentice?  He's simply Justin Trudeau without his mother's brain genes.  Why do we want a liberal to lead the Conservatives?  Conservative scandals haven't had traction.  What kind of a scandal is repaying $91,000 to the government.  All the statements by police to obtain warrants have to implicate people or they wouldn't get the warrant.  It doesn't mean it's true, just the cop's spin.

The election is a year or two away and the best weapon is Harper himself.  Once the tough campaign questions start Trudeau will fold.  He had a walk through to get the leadership.  Nobody at all challenged him on an intellectual basis and he's had a media holiday.  He isn't going to become prime minister on his girl hair alone.

Poli Sci 101: Never, ever underestimate the power of celebrity, never overestimate the intelligence or policy engagement of Canadian voters.

[Rocky Mountains]

Poli Sci 101: Never, ever underestimate the power of celebrity, never overestimate the intelligence or policy engagement of Canadian voters.

You are confusing me with the truth.  Trudeau just scares the bejeezers out of me.  If he is elected I will have to start smoking the legalized weed to cope.  The weed might cure my road rage.

[E.R. Campbell]

And The Star's Tonda MacCharles weighs in on this tyopic in this article which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the Toronto Star:

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2014/01/01/jason_kenney_heir_apparent_or_kingmaker.html

Jason Kenney: Heir apparent or kingmaker?
As 2013 drew to a close it was possible to glimpse what a future leadership race for the Conservative Party might one day look like. And to suspect there’s already a frontrunner: Jason Kenney, should he choose to run.

By: Tonda MacCharles Ottawa Bureau reporter

Published on Wed Jan 01 2014

OTTAWA—Peter MacKay is working on his French. James Moore is losing weight. And Jason Kenney is working the room at a pub full of journalists hosted by his staff.

Meatballs, devilled eggs and drinks on the house.

It has the feel of a hospitality suite. The kind you’d find at, say, a leadership convention. But of course there’s no race on. Not yet.
Prime Minister Stephen Harper insisted in year-end interviews he intends to lead his party in a 2015 election.

Still, as 2013 drew to a close it was possible to glimpse what a future leadership race for the Conservative Party might one day look like. And to suspect there’s already a frontrunner: Jason Kenney, should he choose to run.

Kenney will not talk about such matters. He sidesteps any effort to probe his interest. People who know him well are divided on whether he will throw his hat in the ring. Some believe it’s absolutely his intent. Others suspect he’d rather be kingmaker, sew up the job of finance minister and still retain the freedom and privacy that the top job doesn’t have.

Whatever his personal ambitions, the 45-year-old Kenney has emerged as a minister unafraid of publicly countering Prime Minister Stephen Harper or asserting views his cabinet colleagues don’t like.

Kenney broke ranks a few times in the past two months as the Senate scandal eroded public confidence in Harper’s carefully groomed image of a leader in firm control.

First, to defend Nigel Wright as a principled man who had an “uncharacteristic” lapse in judgment — right after Harper slammed Wright for deceiving him. Second, to come out flatly against Senate abolition — an option the government has put before the Supreme Court — or any need for a referendum on it. Third, to denounce the behaviour of Toronto Mayor Rob Ford, Harper’s GTA ally, as a disgrace to public office and call for him to step aside.

CBC Radio’s The House reported Finance Minister Jim Flaherty rebuked Kenney in the Commons over Ford, telling him to “shut the f--- up.” Kenney barked back at Flaherty.

The clash of two political powerhouses on the floor of the Commons may be a small eruption at the end of a tense time for Conservatives. But the fact that tensions are on display signals caucus divisions — and perhaps political ambitions — are simmering not far beneath the surface.

At the last cabinet shuffle, Flaherty openly lobbied to keep his job. Harper kept Flaherty on and made Kenney, a former finance critic, human resources minister with a new title: Employment and Social Development Minister.

He got responsibility for job training, unemployment insurance, old age security, and the Canada Pension Plan.

The inside joke: Kenney — a fiscal conservative and past head of the Canadian Taxpayers Federation — is now minister of the welfare state.

On the other hand, it unquestionably showed Harper’s continued confidence in the Calgary MP, who rose from the prime minister’s parliamentary secretary up through the ministerial ranks. Of cabinet ministers said to be the savviest, most prepared and best able to go toe-to-toe with the prime minister in cabinet, Kenney and James Moore top the list, said one source.

In fact, Harper has entrusted Kenney with nailing one of his toughest files: the 2013 budget showpiece, the Canada Jobs Grant. It’s up to Kenney to negotiate with provinces and business leaders to implement a policy that was sprung on them with no warning and will revamp how some $300 million in skills training money is spent.

A workhorse, Kenney also retained the chair of cabinet’s powerful operations committee, sits on two other committees — social affairs, and planning and priorities — and still holds the reins on the multiculturalism file.

He wanted that. It turns out all those years as the government’s lead on multiculturalism, immigration and citizenship files and the party’s lead on ethnic voter outreach left Kenney quite liking his role of “minister of curry in a hurry.”

Kenney, an unabashed extrovert, has greetings in dozens of different languages on his Blackberry. He counts good friends in ethnic communities and ethnic media across the country, especially in southern Ontario ridings.

He’s earned political support and cash from many of those same ridings — the better to host hospitality suites, to lend money to fellow candidates whose bank accounts are not as flush, and to be a power broker come any future leadership race.

The CBC’s Kady O’Malley documented that Kenney even out-fundraised Harper last year. In 2012, Harper’s Calgary Southwest riding association raised just over $100,000 from 404 contributors, with just two Toronto-based donations of more than $200.

Next door, Kenney’s Calgary Southeast riding association pulled in nearly double that amount from double the number of donors across Canada — $195,000 from 951 contributors, including more than $50,000 in donations over $200 from 78 supporters in the Toronto area.

Ontario’s been particularly good to Kenney. Since 2007, after he became a junior minister in charge of multiculturalism, donors from this province poured $145,000 into his riding association.

Long identified with the social conservative wing of his party, Kenney was first elected in 1997 at 29 as a Reform MP. He has won re-election five more times since, increasing his popular vote on each ballot except 2008.

Among likely contenders for the party leadership one day — a list that invariably includes Moore, MacKay, and former cabinet colleague Jim Prentice — it is Kenney who would be able to rally the votes of social conservatives, whether for his own benefit or that of his preferred candidate.

The larger question perhaps for Kenney would be even if he were able to win the party, could he win the country?

But that is surely a question for another day.

For now, he’s young enough that he can afford to wait if Harper does stick around and hangs on to his current finance minister, Flaherty, who also insists he’s not going anywhere.

Meanwhile, Kenney’s not the only Conservative minister who is a little more outspoken these days. MacKay, Moore, Quebec’s Maxime Bernier and others who are not believed to harbour leadership ambitions like John Baird, Lisa Raitt, Rona Ambrose and Michelle Rempel are also more vocal and publicly visible than ever.

Consultant Tim Powers, a Conservative strategist, does not see any of it as leadership jockeying, but a sign of generational maturity.

Powers suggests the strongest cabinet performers are more confident, politically comfortable and willing to assert themselves, perhaps knowing their future political profile will depend not so much on Harper, but on their own “reputational positioning.”

“All are extremely loyal to the prime minister,” says Powers, and “all recognize that . . . an open leadership race is not good for the party or for them.”

On the other hand, says Powers, their visibility is “arguably a benefit” to the prime minister and the party if his strong players are “more out there” and engaging Canadians.

While I still think that Jim Prentice is closest to the sort of Conservative I am, I could live with prime Minister Kenney.

I think 2013 was very, very hard on Prime Minister Harper. The Senate issue/scandal has made some (many?) Conservatives question his judgement and it has cost him political capital. "Who," some CPC members are no doubt asking "is better placed to fend off Justin Trudeau? Is it Stephen Harper or a younger man (or woman) who is more "attractive," more telegenic, more "likeable?" Jason Kenny scores fairly high on those traits, I think.

Does anyone else find it a bit odd that Tonda MacCharles appears to count out John Baird and Rona Ambrose when she says "others who are not believed to harbour leadership ambitions like John Baird, Lisa Raitt, Rona Ambrose and Michelle Rempel are also more vocal and publicly visible than ever."? My suspicion is that both Ambrose and Baird are in the race (despite some disadvantages with the Reform base) but, maybe, one, or both of them what to be the "kingmaker."

[E.R. Campbell]

Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from The Hill Times is a report on an interesting poll:

http://www.hilltimes.com/news/politics/2014/01/20/justice-minister-mackay-leads-among-federal-conservative-party-votes-says-new/37168

Justice Minister MacKay leads among federal Conservative Party votes, says new poll
There is no outright sign at the moment that Prime Minister Stephen Harper is even contemplating the possibility of not leading his party into the next federal election. But Justice Minister Peter MacKay does best among Conservative leadership hopefuls, says a Forum Research poll.

By TIM NAUMETZ

Published: Monday, 01/20/2014

PARLIAMENT HILL—Justice Minister Peter MacKay leads the field in Conservative voter approval for top ministers in Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s Cabinet, a new poll has found.

More than half of federal Conservative Party supporters, 53 per cent, registered their approval for Mr. MacKay (Central Nova, N.S.) in a recent Forum Research survey.

Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird (Ottawa West-Nepean, Ont.) registered second with a 45-per-cent approval rating among respondents who support the Conservative party, followed by Employment and Social Development Minister Jason Kenney (Calgary Southeast, Alta.) with an approval rating of 37 per cent among leaning or decided Conservative voters.

Another high-profile member of Cabinet, Treasury Board President Tony Clement (Parry Sound-Muskoka, Ont.), had the fourth-highest approval rating among Conservative supporters, at 32 per cent.

Understandably perhaps, approval for each of the four ministers was at lower levels when the views of voters who expressed support for other parties were included, although Mr. MacKay again led the way, with approval from 26 per cent of all the Forum Research respondents.

Mr. Baird received approval from 20 per cent of all the respondents, including those leaning toward or supporting other parties.

Mr. MacKay, 48, is arguably best known to Canadians for his role as Defence minister beefing up the Canadian Armed Forces during Canada’s participation in the Afghanistan war. He played a key role in 2003 helping Mr. Harper (Calgary Southwest, Alta.) merge the former Progressive Conservative Party with Mr. Harper’s former Canadian Alliance party, but did not run against Mr. Harper in the new party’s first leadership election.

There is no outright sign at the moment that Mr. Harper is even contemplating the possibility of not leading his party into the next federal election.

But there were signs late last year of jostling, with speculation the Prime Minister might indeed step down.

Much of the gossip centered on the relentless assault the government and Mr. Harper were enduring over the role of his former chief of staff, Nigel Wright, in the Senate expense scandal and RCMP documents that contradicted Mr. Harper’s explanation of $90,000 Mr. Wright gave to Senator Mike Duffy in an attempt to end the expense controversy last February.

Mr. Harper told Postmedia News in December he would be leading his party into the next election.

“I’m enjoying running the government,” he said. “I think I’ve got the only strong team and the only group of people with a serious economic agenda for the country. So we need to keep moving forward,” Mr. Harper said.

Though the Senate expense front has been calm over Parliament’s winter recess, NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair (Outremont, Que.) is expected to don his Crown prosecutor robe again when Question Period returns with the resumption of the House of Commons next Monday, Jan. 27.

That scenario might well lead to more leadership speculation, or more theories about an early election call, which would depend as well on unexpectedly concerning news recently on the economy as well as a potential ruling on Senate reform possibilities from the Supreme Court of Canada this spring.

The Forum Research poll question did not mention a potential Conservative Party leadership race, and did not include the names of any female Conservative Cabinet ministers or politicians. Transport Minister Lisa Raitt’s (Halton, Ont.) is part of the federal Conservative leadership speculation, but the Forum Research survey did include her name.

Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall, who leads the conservative Saskatchewan Party, won approval from 26 per cent of Conservative-leaning voters, while a former member of Mr. Harper’s cabinet, bank executive Jim Prentice, received support from 23 per cent of Conservative voters.

Industry Minister James Moore (Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam, B.C.), 37, received approval from 16 per cent of respondents who were leaning or decided in favour of voting Conservative.

Minister of Staff for Small Business Maxime Bernier (Beauce, Que.) received approval from 16 per cent of leaning Conservative voters.

“Peter MacKay, as a founder of the party and with his long and faithful service, is a natural to take over the reins when Prime Minister Harper gets bored,” said Mr. Bozinoff. “It is interesting to note that, while Conservatives themselves give the highest marks to MacKay and Baird, two party loyalists, the general public sees the fewest negatives in Jim Prentice and Brad Wall, the latter of whom isn’t even a Conservative.”

But Conservative commentator Tim Powers argued the preferences for Mr. MacKay and the others in the top tier are likely related to the fact they are among the most prominent members of Mr. Harper’s team.

“I am not surprised by the number, as it is more about recognition and it makes sense,” Mr. Powers said.

“Peter, John and Jason are in the top three. They have the most visibility both now and historically. (It is) hard to correlate to leadership,” Mr. Powers said.

Mr. Clement, 52, was third in the overall results from all respondents with only 14 per cent approval once supporters of other parties were included.

Mr. Kenney, 45, received approval from 17 per cent of all respondents, including Conservative supporters and others.

Mr. Moore received support from only nine per cent of all respondents.

The Forum Research interactive voice response telephone survey of 1,779 randomly selected Canadians of voting age was conducted on Jan. 16 and Jan. 17 last week.

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The Hill Times

Perhaps, given the masses of bad publicity, in the mainstream media, that attended Mr MacKay last year, the old adage that all press is good press is true.

It also indicates that the old Progressive Conservative wing is still alive and well in the CPC.