Author Topic: Turmoil in Libya (2011) and post-Gaddafi blowback  (Read 282780 times)

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Offline willellis

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Re: Turmoil in Libya- 2011
« Reply #50 on: February 22, 2011, 23:43:09 »
US imports of Libyan oil totaled 80 000 barels per day in 2009, representing only 5% of Libya's exports. Not exactly something to lose sleep over.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/cabs/Libya/Oil.html

True, but I don't think it is the amount of oil that is the factor, but rather they are business partners.

Offline George Wallace

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Re: Turmoil in Libya- 2011
« Reply #51 on: February 22, 2011, 23:46:19 »
willellis

I see you haven't read much history.  They have invaded Mexico, Cuba, Canada, Panama, various Caribbean Island nations, and a long list of other once friendly nations over the past 200 years or so.  Why would this be an exception?
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Offline willellis

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Re: Turmoil in Libya- 2011
« Reply #52 on: February 22, 2011, 23:53:39 »
willellis

I see you haven't read much history.  They have invaded Mexico, Cuba, Canada, Panama, various Caribbean Island nations, and a long list of other once friendly nations over the past 200 years or so.  Why would this be an exception?

I believe that times have changed since then. I know that Panama was only 30 years ago, but even still, I feel that this is not something that will benefit the US if they were to go through with it.

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Re: Turmoil in Libya- 2011
« Reply #53 on: February 22, 2011, 23:58:26 »
True, but I don't think it is the amount of oil that is the factor, but rather they are business partners.

The Waha Oil Company, which is owned by a Libyan company called "National Oil Corporation" in a joint venture with ConocoPhillips, Marathon Oil and Amerada Hess.

I just started looking but i have yet to find any other US buisness with Libyan oil companies.

I feel that this is not something that will benefit the US if they were to go through with it.

For the record, i dont think anyone has anything to gain ( and much to lose) by intervening here.

Offline willellis

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Re: Turmoil in Libya- 2011
« Reply #54 on: February 23, 2011, 00:04:04 »
The Waha Oil Company, which is owned by a Libyan company called "National Oil Corporation" in a joint venture with ConocoPhillips, Marathon Oil and Amerada Hess.

I just started looking but i have yet to find any other US buisness with Libyan oil companies.

For the record, i dont think anyone has anything to gain ( and much to lose) by intervening here.

I am nearly certain that BP had signed deals in 2004 with Libya. As for intervention, I agree. I was just discussing with family that I have such admiration for people that are willing to step up in the face of tyranny, and say enough is enough. The country will be better for it if they can overthrow this so called "government".


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Re: Turmoil in Libya- 2011
« Reply #55 on: February 23, 2011, 00:06:37 »
I am nearly certain that BP had signed deals in 2004 with Libya.

BP = British Petroleum

Offline Kat Stevens

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Re: Turmoil in Libya- 2011
« Reply #56 on: February 23, 2011, 01:17:17 »
BP = British Petroleum

...And I believe it's Dutch owned.
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Re: Turmoil in Libya- 2011
« Reply #57 on: February 23, 2011, 07:24:53 »
+1, but the US won't bomb one of their sources of oil.
Zat right?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/april/15/newsid_3975000/3975455.stm

I see you haven't read much history.  They have invaded Mexico, Cuba, Canada, Panama, various Caribbean Island nations, and a long list of other once friendly nations over the past 200 years or so.  Why would this be an exception?
Correct - read the attached, willellis, and learn.

- edited to clarify -
« Last Edit: February 23, 2011, 10:07:06 by milnews.ca »
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Re: Turmoil in Libya- 2011
« Reply #58 on: February 23, 2011, 11:49:47 »
Fidel takes a bit of a poke:
Quote
Cuba's former leader Fidel Castro said Tuesday that unrest in Libya may be a pretext for a NATO invasion. Nicaragua's Daniel Ortega has jumped to the support of the embattled leader of the North African nation, saying he telephoned to express solidarity .... "You can agree or not with Gadhafi," Castro said. "The world has been invaded by all sorts of news ... We have to wait the necessary time to know with rigor how much is fact or lie."  But he did urge protests of something he says is planned: A U.S.-led invasion of the North African nation aimed at controlling its oil.  "The government of the United States is not concerned at all about peace in Libya and it will not hesitate to give NATO the order to invade that rich country, perhaps in a question of hours or very short days," Castro wrote ....

Reports out there that AQ's set up an "Islamic Emirate" in eastern Libya:
Quote
Al-Qaeda has set up an Islamic emirate in Derna, in eastern Libya, headed by a former U.S. prisoner at Guantanamo Bay, the country's deputy foreign minister told EU ambassadors in Tripoli.

However, residents in the city have told reporters there is no substance to these rumors, which they claim the Libyan government is sowing to "scare Europe."

"Al-Qaeda has established an emirate in Derna led by Abdelkarim al-Hasadi, a former Guantanamo detainee," Khaled Khaim said.

"They have an FM radio station and have begun to impose the burqa" (head-to-toe covering for women) and have "executed people who refuse to cooperate with them."

Khaim said Hasadi has a lieutenant, "also a member of al-Qaeda and named Kheirallah Baraassi" in al-Baida.

Derna is the capital of a province by the same name in the region of Cyrenaica, some 1,250 kilometers east of Libya's capital Tripoli. Al-Baida lies about 100 kilometers west of Derna.

Earlier, Italian Foreign Minister Francesco Franco Frattini said embattled Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi had lost control of Cyrenaica and shared reports that an Islamic emirate had been declared there.

Speaking at a meeting in Rome organized by the Community of Sant'Egidio, a Christian organization, Frattini said here had been recent proclamations in Cyrenaica that it was now an Islamic emirate and calls to break with the West ....
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Offline 57Chevy

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Re: Turmoil in Libya- 2011
« Reply #59 on: February 23, 2011, 21:55:28 »
Mass evacuations underway in Libya as EU considers sanctions
Thousands of foreign nationals are being evacuated from Libya as the situation becomes increasingly chaotic and the government loses the east of the country. Calls for sanctions are getting louder.

European and other countries were frantically trying to get their nationals out of Libya on Wednesday as events on the ground continued to escalate.
A spokesman for the European Union said member countries were in the process of evacuating some 10,000 EU citizens by air and sea.
Thousands of Tunisian and Turkish nationals were attempting to leave by Libya's western land border; many of them spoke of harrowing scenes and of being attacked by Libyan security forces.

Asian countries said Wednesday they were preparing a "mammoth" evacuation operation for more than 100,000 migrant workers.
In a newspaper interview Italy's Foreign Minister Franco Frattini warned that as many as 300,000 refugees might try to reach Europe to escape the violence in Libya. He added that estimates that as many as 1,000 people had been killed so far "are credible."
According to the International Federation for Human Rights (IFHR) at least 640 people have been killed in Libya in protests against the regime since they started last week.

The figure is more than double the official Libyan government toll of 300 dead, and includes 275 dead in Tripoli and 230 dead in the protest epicentre in the eastern city of Benghazi, the IFHR's Souhayr Belhassen told AFP.

The Benghazi toll includes "130 soldiers who were executed by their officers in Benghazi for refusing to fire on crowds" of protesters, she said.
Belhassen, who heads the Paris-based IFHR, said their figures were based on military sources for Tripoli and on Libyan rights groups' assessments in Benghazi and elsewhere.

Gadhafi remains defiant

Meanwhile, Libyan sources said Gadhafi was barricaded in the Bab al-Azizya compound in Tripoli, and was being protected by four military brigades. But despite his defiant stance, there were signs that his grip on power was slipping.

article continues at link...

Also:
Gaddafi regime handing weapons to supporters
"They start giving guns to everybody who's saying 'I'm supporting him'," Mr Basset said.

"I've seen the guns with people who [are] very young.

"There is lots of people now - they're holding guns, they have no idea how to use even the guns.

"They've just got a Kalashnikov and they're just shooting everywhere."

more at link....
 :o
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Offline daftandbarmy

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Re: Turmoil in Libya- 2011
« Reply #60 on: February 23, 2011, 22:14:56 »
I believe that times have changed since then. I know that Panama was only 30 years ago, but even still, I feel that this is not something that will benefit the US if they were to go through with it.

My bet is on a UN sanctioned 'Arab nation led' intervention, supported by the EU and US. At least, I hope it happens that way or I'll lose a case of beer.  ;D

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Offline willellis

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Re: Turmoil in Libya- 2011
« Reply #61 on: February 23, 2011, 22:15:27 »
Thanks for the link Milnews. I can certainly understand where you are coming from too, but I am trying to look at how things will play out in today's world. Times have changed, and the world is smaller now. If there is a US force moved to Libya, would it not make more sense to send ground forces? If they refer back to the bombing method, this would become Iraq part III.

Offline willellis

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Re: Turmoil in Libya- 2011
« Reply #62 on: February 23, 2011, 22:17:00 »
My bet is on a UN sanctioned 'Arab nation led' intervention, supported by the EU and US. At least, I hope it happens that way or I'll lose a case of beer.  ;D

Makes sense to me.

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Re: Turmoil in Libya- 2011
« Reply #63 on: February 23, 2011, 23:19:00 »
A lot depends on Egypt. Despite its own internal political problems it remains the dominant regional power. It is, relative to its neighbours: large, powerful, rich and sophisticated. Egypt traditionally aspires to a leadership role in North Africa and the Middle East - this may be a good time for it to exercise some leadership. Mubarak as cautious, he craved stability above all else, it seems to me. The new leaders may be more of the Nasser/Sadat type, we, in the West, probably hope more Sadat than Nasser, but we'll likely have to settle for whatever we get.

I'm not sure that any US engagement is either desirable or, given the current state of the US military (deployments, contingencies, etc), even likely.

This is an Arab/North African mess - they will, most likely, want to try to sort it out amongst themselves and we would be wise to let them try, with a UNSC mandate.

Don't forget: it is not just Libya: Bahrain, Egypt, Tunisia and Yemen are all in various stages and degrees of crises. Then there's Iran ...

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Offline GR66

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Re: Turmoil in Libya- 2011
« Reply #64 on: February 24, 2011, 08:08:36 »
My guess would be that Egypt may be the best equipped and positioned to intervene despite the current crisis there (with possible behind the scenes US logistics, intel and economic support) as well as being the most politically acceptable choice. 

Becoming the Arab "white knights" in Libya may also be a pretty smart political move for an Egyptian military that is likely pretty desperate to maintain their dominant political and economic position in their own country.  It's much harder to complain about the group that is seen as the saviours of your oppressed Arab brothers.

Offline 57Chevy

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Re: Turmoil in Libya- 2011
« Reply #65 on: February 24, 2011, 09:13:53 »
Looks to me that the world concern right now is on getting as many
of their citizens out of there in a quickened manner.
Some will encounter an array of delays
Evacuation of Canadians from Libya on hold: report
                                                  _________________________

Fidel takes a bit of a poke:
First lets not forget that Castro is not so much a foolish man and although he made a hardline statement regarding the
possible US/NATO invasion he is cautious:
Castro offered lukewarm support for Gadhafi, saying more time was needed to assess what was going on in Libya.
Cuban Diplomat points finger at US
IMO Castro is not the type to support the murder of ones own citizens.
However,
It is interesting to note some of the other exterior support for the Qadhafi regime
like muscle heads such as Chavez and Ortega
Both well known instigators to US departements and good friends for no real good reasons.

The president of Nicaragua, Daniel Ortega, has received almost $1 billion in aid from President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela -- sometimes in "suitcases full of cash" sent from Caracas -- a relationship that prompted a U.S. diplomat to dub Ortega a "Chavez Mini-Me," leaked U.S. diplomatic cables show.
Ortega, the cables say, also funds his party's political campaigns with money from drug traffickers and once bribed a prominent Nicaraguan boxer to stump for him in public in exchange for not facing sexual assault charges -- which Ortega himself has faced, as alleged by his stepdaughter.
Nicaragua's Daniel Ortega 'dubbed Chavez Mini-me' in US leaked cables

Nicaragua's leftist President Daniel Ortega says he has telephoned Libyan leader Moammar Qaddafi on Monday to express his solidarity.
---
Leftist leaders in the Americas have long embraced Qaddafi  and he has responded over the years by awarding the Muammar Qaddafi International Human Rights Prize to Castro and Ortega, as well as to Presidents Hugo Chávez of Venezuela and Evo Morales of Bolivia.
Nicaragua's Daniel Ortega and Cuba's Fidel Castro Stand-By Qaddafi

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has condemned the killing of Protesters in Libya and called on the Libyan government to respect the people's will.
Demands for change shaking the Middle East would end the oppression of "arrogant" powers and would reach other continents like Europe or America, unless Discrimination and Military occupation ended, he predicted. "Instead of killing people, listen to them,"
Ahmadinejad condemns civilian killings in Libya
Do you mean like Central and South America ?
so then,
Noting the Iranian viewpoint on the Libyan massacre perhaps these two characters will reconsider their statements:
Chávez pledged that Venezuela would "stay by Iran at any time and under any condition." Ahmedinejad called Chávez a kindred spirit. "I feel I have met a brother and trench mate after meeting Chávez." Chávez said he "admired the Iranian president for 'his wisdom and strength'," saying, "We are with you and with Iran forever. As long as we remain united we will be able to defeat (U.S.) imperialism, but if we are divided they will push us aside".
Wikipedia
 
Ortega met with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The two heads of state toured shanty towns in Managua. Ortega told the press that the "revolutions of Iran and Nicaragua are almost twin revolutions...since both revolutions are about justice, liberty, self-determination, and the struggle against imperialism.
Wikipedia
 
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« Last Edit: February 24, 2011, 09:17:32 by 57Chevy »

Offline Brihard

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Re: Turmoil in Libya- 2011
« Reply #66 on: February 24, 2011, 14:26:14 »
CBC's now reporting that we've sent a C17 for evac. Although apparently 'no military personnel are onboard'. I assume they mean other than flight crew.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2011/02/24/libya-canadians.html
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Re: Turmoil in Libya- 2011
« Reply #67 on: February 24, 2011, 17:45:14 »
 
Don't forget: it is not just Libya: Bahrain, Egypt, Tunisia and Yemen are all in various stages and degrees of crises. Then there's Iran ...
I've been watching Bahrain for a couple of days now, and I think that crisis is different from Libya, Tunisia, and Yemen; it may be much closer to Egypt.

First off, I believe it's of more importance. As mentioned, it's the home of the US Navy's Fifth Fleet (roughly 25,000 military personnel serving afloat and 3,000 support personnel ashore in Bahrain. These naval forces typically represent some 60-80 percent of all American military forces in the Gulf area). This Fleet is seen as a much necessary regional counterbalance against Shi'ite Iran.

Secondly, the crisis is also of concern for two neighbours -- Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.

The Saudis fear that the concessions Bahrain is making with their Shia majority will embolden the Saudi Shia, who mostly inhabit the oil-rich eastern province near the Bahrain border. Adding to their concern is the impending succession of several of Saudi Arabia's top leaders; this is not a good time for instability.

Any Bahrainian concessions are also likely to have a knock-on effect in Kuwait, where 30 percent of their population are Shia...with many of the same grievances. Needless to say, Kuwait's stability is critical for US operations in Iraq, especially logistics.

Finally, I feel Bahrain is also different because of the nature of the protests. Sure, like the other protests, al Jazeera is showing the majority of signs and banners as being in English (obvious target audience). But in Bahrain the religious tone is very much understated. The protest's leadership seems to be more highly-educated, economically-driven youth; there appears to be a clear disconnect from the country's more traditionally conservative Shi'ite opposition groups.

So......Libya -- I'm not too concerned. The population has always been divided east/west, with the overwhelming majority living within 20 feet of the coast (hell, they didn't even have a road linking the entire country until the late-1980s); if there was no oil, no one would care.

Bahrain however, like Egypt, is important for regional stability.



Edit: typo
« Last Edit: February 24, 2011, 20:10:07 by Journeyman »

Offline daftandbarmy

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Re: Turmoil in Libya- 2011
« Reply #68 on: February 24, 2011, 17:49:12 »
CBC's now reporting that we've sent a C17 for evac. Although apparently 'no military personnel are onboard'. I assume they mean other than flight crew.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2011/02/24/libya-canadians.html

So they were pretty much 100% correct there, right?  ;D

Too bad we couldn't visit them with those C17s filled with troops. If you want a 'just cause', finding and hanging Goofy Ghadaffi Duck is a good one.
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Re: Turmoil in Libya- 2011
« Reply #69 on: February 24, 2011, 19:27:49 »
- edited to add extra info at bottom -

CBC's now reporting that we've sent a C17 for evac. Although apparently 'no military personnel are onboard'. I assume they mean other than flight crew.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2011/02/24/libya-canadians.html

This from the CBC story caught my eye:
Quote
.... "We have arranged for the evacuation of Canadians on a number of flights and boats chartered by allies such as the United Kingdom, Spain, and the United States," Lawrence Cannon said in a statement issued from Rome on Thursday ....

as well as this from Reuters:
Quote
Canada will send a military cargo plane to evacuate its citizens from Libya, where conditions are becoming more dangerous, Foreign Minister Lawrence Cannon told reporters on Thursday.

The announcement came hours after plans to send a chartered civilian airliner on Thursday to the Libyan capital Tripoli fell through over insurance concerns. Cannon said nearly 200 Canadians had been, or were about to be, evacuated from Libya on planes and ships arranged by other nations.

Cannon, speaking to reporters in the Canadian embassy in Rome, said a C-17 military transport plane with 156 seats was on its way to Italy from Germany and would fly to Tripoli as soon as Libyan authorities have permission ....
The Minister's in Rome?  Does he need to be there?  Some 14K were evacuated from Lebanon in 2006, and (although I stand to be corrected) I don't remember a Minister being "forward deployed" like this.  As much as I appreciate a Minister of the Crown wanting to keep a grip on the situation (although it makes one wonder about his faith in the folks working for him), I really hope he doesn't take up a seat on the planes out of Libya.

Late add - To be fair, I've also spotted this as a rationale:
Quote
.... Cannon is in Italy to discuss the situation in Libya and the region with his Italian counterpart ....
« Last Edit: February 24, 2011, 19:50:30 by milnews.ca »
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Offline 57Chevy

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Re: Turmoil in Libya- 2011
« Reply #70 on: February 24, 2011, 19:40:52 »
Well put JM. The mentality of the people in Bahrain is completely different from those in Libya. The people are accustomed to the western influence because of the presence of the operational US 5th fleet. The latest protests show that there are deep rooted tensions based on the Sunni discrimination (Government) of the majority Shia population, that's one big reason the people want a new government.
Opposition resumes protest in Bahrain
 
For those interested, 
a further read on the difference between Sunni and Shia muslims can be found here  (What's the difference between Shia and Sunni Muslims ?)
                                              _________________________
 
Some new and interesting developments and possible heavy responses from world powers on the Libyan ordeal.
The White House said Barack Obama planned to call David Cameron and Nicolas Sarkozy, to discuss possible actions,
including a no-fly zone or sanctions.
---
Switzerland said it had frozen Gaddafi's assets
---
British special forces are in Malta, with some reports that they are in Tripoli.
 Libya: International response gathers pace after Gaddafi counterattacks
                                             ________________________
Some additional dialogue from the UN
"At this critical juncture, it is imperative that the international community maintain unity and act together to ensure a prompt and peaceful transition,"
---
"I want to underscore what my special advisers said yesterday on the prevention of genocide and responsibility to protect," Ban said. "The reported nature and scale of effects of the attacks on civilians are egregious violations of international humanitarian and human rights law."

"I condemn them loudly ... and those who are responsible must be held accountable in courts of law," he added.
UN chief calls for 'prompt, peaceful' transition in Libya
                                           __________________________
And this rare and paramount support:
 
China and Russia, traditionally reluctant to interfere in the internal affairs of other countries, supported the strong press statement the council issued Tuesday which condemned and deplored "the repression against peaceful demonstrators," demanded an "immediate end to the violence," and called for steps "to address the legitimate demands of the population."
Whether China and Russia will go along with sanctions - which both countries also generally oppose - remains to be seen.
UN to meet on further options against Libya
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Re: Turmoil in Libya- 2011
« Reply #71 on: February 24, 2011, 19:51:00 »
China and Russia supported the strong press statement the council issued Tuesday which condemned and deplored "the repression against peaceful demonstrators," demanded an "immediate end to the violence," and called for steps "to address the legitimate demands of the population."

Pot, this is kettle, you're black over.

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Re: Turmoil in Libya- 2011
« Reply #72 on: February 24, 2011, 19:51:56 »
The kettle is in a perfect position to remind the pot of it's colour.
Apparently, a "USUAL SUSPECT"

“In peace there's nothing so becomes a man as modest stillness and humility; but when the blast of war blows in our ears, then imitate the action of the tiger; stiffen the sinews, summon up the blood, disguise fair nature with hard-favor'd rage.”

 Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and start slitting throats

Offline 57Chevy

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Re: Turmoil in Libya- 2011
« Reply #73 on: February 25, 2011, 08:20:00 »
(Modified)
---
---
British Foreign Secretary William Hague said that he did not rule out the possibility of sending Special Forces to Libya.

Hague convened a meeting of the cabinet emergency group COBRA, along with Defence Secretary Liam Fox. Prime Minister David Cameron is on a trade mission in the Middle East, centring on the sale of arms to Persian Gulf despots.

Culture Secretary Jeremy Hunt told LBS radio, “The most significant news is the SAS [Special Air Service] troops that are now ready to spring into action.”

When asked directly if he could envisage a British military intervention in Libya, he replied: “Absolutely … we wouldn’t have SAS troops on stand-by if we weren’t envisaging the possibility of having to use them.”

A statement from the Ministry of Defence (MoD) said it was “assisting FCO [Foreign and Commonwealth] officials in Tripoli and has pre-positioned a number of other assets and personnel in the area to assist as and when appropriate as part of the overall Foreign Office led response.” It added, “A number of further UK assets are also being readied to assist the FCO if required.”

Unnamed sources within the military have let it be known that the Special Boat Service (SBS) has deployed a forward team to a Mediterranean location. British Forces News said that the Special Forces are on alert and will be backed up by paratroopers from the Special Forces Support Group.

Frank Gardner, the BBC’s security editor, suggested that SAS personnel might already be on the ground in plain clothes.
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Full article here
Calls mount for military intervention in Libya

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Re: Turmoil in Libya- 2011
« Reply #74 on: February 25, 2011, 09:16:12 »
Liberal and Conservative Senators lay out how Canada could help:
Quote
…. Support from the international community, and Canada especially, should be offered for building Libyan civil society and the national institutions neglected and denied during Gadhafi's four-decade, one-man rule.  Although the Security Council has expressed "grave concern" and called on Libya "to meet its responsibility to protect its population," its issuance of a press statement is insufficient to communicate the gravity of the situation that Libyans face -namely, the threat of mass atrocities. Time is literally of the essence …. But strong words must be paired with strong action.

Canada and the international community must stand by the people of Libya who, like so many others throughout the Arab world, seek the basic human rights that should be enjoyed by all who desire them. Whereas the protests elsewhere have led to relatively peaceful transitions or to dialogues for reform, Libya's rulers have chosen repression and slaughter.  Our response may very well determine whether the next authoritarian government threatened follows Gadhafi's lead. This is not about picking winners; it's about being on the right side of history by saving human lives. 

We have seen the cost of inaction, delay and obfuscation on innocent populations elsewhere. The Responsibility to Protect is about the world engaging when a civilian population is under attack -either from its own government or because its government lacks the means or will to protect it. Libya is one of the clearest examples yet of just such a circumstance.

Canada has an opportunity to help build a coalition at the UN for rapid engagement. This needs to be a matter of hours and days, not weeks and months.
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