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All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

mariomike

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tomahawk6 said:
The CDC report I saw today is that its no different than the flu, remember to wash your hands frequently and avoid the snake burgers.

That's comforting.

But, just in case the situation worsens, I kept my N95 stockpile from SARS. Gloves and gowns too.

Might be time for a mid-winter Muskoka vacation. But, our neighbourhood already has the natural boundaries of a lake, a river and a pond.

Incidentally, if interested,

#coronavirustoronto
 

Haggis

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A grandchild asked me why a virus that allegedly originated in China be named after a Mexican beer?
 

brihard

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Haggis said:
A grandchild asked me why a virus that allegedly originated in China be named after a Mexican beer?

That's what happens when you get stuck naming a new virus on a rough Monday morning.
 

The Bread Guy

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Spencer100 said:
Just dropping this here
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/did-china-steal-coronavirus-canada-and-weaponize-it
To use a stats analogy, correlation =/= causality.  There's a pretty big military chem lab near where these folks were poisoned, so how much does that increase the odds that something leaked out of that facility to poison them? 

Never say never, and it's interesting dots being connected, but I'll wait until someone other than this source connects the dots to trust the conclusion more. I've been wrong before, and happy to be again.
 
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https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/jan/26/coronavirus-link-china-biowarfare-program-possible/

Something relating to bio-weapon. How did it escape is what I'm wondering.
 

mariomike

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NYC using "secret shoppers" who masquerade as infected patients to constantly test the ability of hospitals and paramedics to identify a coronavirus patient within 5 to 10 minutes of presentation.
http://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/manhattan/ny-officials-detail-ways-city-is-preparing-for-coronavirus-20200125-ithoxxpdyfddvbhib4ce4jmpvy-story.html
 

macarena

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Haggis said:
A grandchild asked me why a virus that allegedly originated in China be named after a Mexican beer?

Seems this chinese corona virus is a variation of former corona viruses, and the first having come from spanish spoken place. If im not wrong, corona means 'crown' in spanish. The name must have been given from the visual appearance of the virus.

And, as to provide sequence to the humour... well.. is not too soon to that grandchild to show a vastness knowledge about beer brands?  :nod:
 

Blackadder1916

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macarena said:
. . . first having come from spanish spoken place. If im not wrong, corona means 'crown' in spanish.  . . .

It's not Spanish, it's Latin.

Not to be pedantic, (hell, of course I'm pedantic) but, the scientific naming of things is usually based on Latin so that the terms are common across all language.  Corōna is the Latin word for crown.

Don't they teach Latin and Greek in primary school anymore?  :tsktsk:
 

Haggis

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macarena said:
…. is not too soon to that grandchild to show a vastness knowledge about beer brands?  :nod:

I blame television.
 

tomahawk6

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The death toll in China is at 80. The virus spreads during incubation so that's concerning.

https://www.foxnews.com/health/dr-oz-coronavirus-outbreak-chinese-leaders-alarming
 

Civvymedic

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I worked in the GTA as a front line Paramedic during SARS, and I still do. This one is being watched closely for many reasons obviously but particularly the way it spreads is concerning. SARS did weird things too and I remember some people were suspected of being "super spreaders" and it was living in different places for varying times. We did a good job of dealing with it through PPE, isolation, avoiding certain types of airway procedures and other work but it was tough and we lost people. Looks like we have 2 confirmed cases in the GTA, 19 suspect awaiting testing and I suspect at least another Canadian city will see cases as well. I think this time we are further ahead, especially with screening and PPE but it will get interesting.
 

mariomike

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Civvymedic said:
I worked in the GTA as a front line Paramedic during SARS, and I still do.

In Toronto, during SARS, of our 850 paramedics, we had 1,166 potential SARS exposures.

Not sure if you were quarantined ( many of us were ), but if you don't mind me asking, did / does your municipality have this for their paramedics?
https://army.ca/forums/threads/131801/post-1595644.html#msg1595644

I retired a long time ago, but it is still in effect in TO.

Good luck with coronavirus, and stay safe!


 

Civvymedic

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We do indeed. A lot of good things to go forward came out of the SARS experience including better CBA language but also screening, PPE use etc. Hope this time goes better....
 

mariomike

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Civvymedic said:
Hope this time goes better....

Hope so too...

During SARS, our mayor, Mel Lastman ( of "Bad Boy" furniture and appliances fame and fortune ), did an interview on CNN. When asked what the World Health Organization was doing about the crisis, Mel replied, "They don't know what they're talking about. I don't know who this group is. I've never heard of them before."  :)
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/lastman-lashes-out-at-who/article1161040/

Maybe when we put this one behind us, the city will have the 2020 version of the 2003 SARS-Stock: "Estimated to have between 450,000 and 500,000 people attending the concert, it is the largest outdoor ticketed event in Canadian history, and one of the largest in North American history."
https://web.archive.org/web/20090727191619/http://www.cbc.ca/news/background/sarsbenefit/

They can call it, "Coronafest."  :)



I know this man. He was big and strong and energetic. The highlighted part is important.

I'm not sure if any of our SARS survivors ever recovered enough to return to 9-1-1 operations.

CBC
Jan 28, 2020

SARS survivor, retired paramedic warns front-line workers need protection against coronavirus

Severe chills. Aches and pains. Full-body weakness.

Bruce England says those intense symptoms began one night in 2003 after he'd wrapped up a shift as a Toronto paramedic.

"I couldn't get out of bed, I couldn't lift my head. I couldn't go to the washroom," he recalled. "I just didn't have the strength. It was like being hit by a two-by-four and not being able to move."

England called his team to report his sudden illness. Soon after, he says two fellow paramedics arrived at his home in full protective suits to take him to a hospital — where he was whisked right into an isolation room.

England spent two weeks recovering in hospital and another month at home, but still felt unwell after he returned to work, and eventually shifted out of his front-line duties to work in Toronto's office of emergency management.

Close to two decades later, England said he still has trouble breathing and experiences numbness in his hands and feet — lingering reminders of his brush with a deadly illness.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/sars-survivor-retired-paramedic-warns-front-line-workers-need-protection-against-coronavirus-1.5441953
 

NavyShooter

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From the SITREP 7 update from the WHO:

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200127-sitrep-7-2019--ncov.pdf?sfvrsn=98ef79f5_2

Among the 37 cases identified outside of China, three were detected without the onset of symptoms, while among the remaining 34 patients, there is information on date of symptom for 28 individuals. The epidemic curve for these individuals is shown in Figure 2.

The median age of cases detected outside of China is 45 years ranging from2 to 74 years, 71% of cases were male (information was missing on age for 6 cases, and on sex for 4 cases). Of the 27 cases for whom we have detailed information on date of symptom onset and travel date from China, 8 cases had symptom onset in China, 5 had onset on the same day as travel, and 14 developed symptoms after leaving China.

36 cases had travel history to China, of whom 34 had travel history in Wuhan city, or had an epidemiological link to a confirmed case with travel history to Wuhan. For the remaining two, investigations into their travel histories are ongoing. One additional case was the result of human-to-human transmission among close family contacts in Viet Nam.

Emphasis mine...a very interesting point.  Of 37 international cases, 34 were in Wuhan...

Leaves me to ponder if this infection is more difficult to spread, or if the latency period is lining us up for a second wave in a few days as it incubates?

 

mariomike

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NavyShooter said:
if the latency period is lining us up for a second wave in a few days as it incubates?

From the post above,
caught his illness from a patient in a hospital about two weeks before his symptoms showed up.



 

Retired AF Guy

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Found this article yesterday from Wired.com that states a Canadian company using AI was able to predict the coronovirus outbreak before the CDC or WHO were able to.

An AI Epidemiologist Sent the First Warnings of the Wuhan Virus

Eric Niiler
Science
01.25.2020 07:00 AM

The BlueDot algorithm scours news reports and airline ticketing data to predict the spread of diseases like those linked to the flu outbreak in China.

On January 9, the World Health Organization notified the public of a flu-like outbreak in China: a cluster of pneumonia cases had been reported in Wuhan, possibly from vendors’ exposure to live animals at the Huanan Seafood Market. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had gotten the word out a few days earlier, on January 6. But a Canadian health monitoring platform had beaten them both to the punch, sending word of the outbreak to its customers on December 31.

BlueDot uses an AI-driven algorithm that scours foreign-language news reports, animal and plant disease networks, and official proclamations to give its clients advance warning to avoid danger zones like Wuhan.

Speed matters during an outbreak, and tight-lipped Chinese officials do not have a good track record of sharing information about diseases, air pollution, or natural disasters. But public health officials at WHO and the CDC have to rely on these very same health officials for their own disease monitoring. So maybe an AI can get there faster. “We know that governments may not be relied upon to provide information in a timely fashion,” says Kamran Khan, BlueDot’s founder and CEO. “We can pick up news of possible outbreaks, little murmurs or forums or blogs of indications of some kind of unusual events going on.”

Khan says the algorithm doesn’t use social media postings because that data is too messy. But he does have one trick up his sleeve: access to global airline ticketing data that can help predict where and when infected residents are headed next. It correctly predicted that the virus would jump from Wuhan to Bangkok, Seoul, Taipei, and Tokyo in the days following its initial appearance.

Khan, who was working as a hospital infectious disease specialist in Toronto during the SARS epidemic of 2003, dreamt of finding a better way to track diseases. That virus started in provincial China and spread to Hong Kong and then to Toronto, where it killed 44 people. “There’s a bit of deja vu right now,” Khan says about the coronavirus outbreak today. “In 2003, I watched the virus overwhelm the city and cripple the hospital. There was an enormous amount of mental and physical fatigue, and I thought, ‘Let’s not do this again.’”

After testing out several predictive programs, Khan launched BlueDot in 2014 and raised $9.4 million in venture capital funding. The company now has 40 employees—physicians and programmers who devise the disease surveillance analytic program, which uses natural-language processing and machine learning techniques to sift through news reports in 65 languages, along with airline data and reports of animal disease outbreaks. “What we have done is use natural language processing and machine learning to train this engine to recognize whether this is an outbreak of anthrax in Mongolia versus a reunion of the heavy metal band Anthrax,” Kahn says.

Once the automated data-sifting is complete, human analysis takes over, Khan says. Epidemiologists check that the conclusions make sense from a scientific standpoint, and then a report is sent to government, business, and public health clients.

BlueDot’s reports are then sent to public health officials in a dozen countries (including the US and Canada), airlines, and frontline hospitals where infected patients might end up. BlueDot doesn’t sell their data to the general public, but they are working on it, Khan says.

The firm isn’t the first to look for an end-run around public health officials, but they are hoping to do better than Google Flu Trends, which was euthanized after underestimating the severity of the 2013 flu season by 140 percent. BlueDot successfully predicted the location of the Zika outbreak in South Florida in a publication in the British medical journal The Lancet.

Whether BlueDot proves as successful this time remains to be seen. But in the meantime, some public health experts say that despite covering up the SARS outbreak for months in 2002, Chinese officials have reacted faster this time.

“The outbreak is probably a lot bigger than one the public health officials have confirmation of,” says James Lawler, an infectious disease specialist at the University of Nebraska Medical Center, who treated quarantined Ebola patients in 2017 and 2018. “Just using a back-of-the-envelope calculation on how many travelers there are from China in a given week, and percentage than might have been affected, it’s a lot.”

An area containing eight cities and 35 million people have now been quarantined in China, The New York Times reported Friday, while The Wall Street Journal reports that hospitals in the epicenter of Wuhan are turning away patients and medical supplies such as masks and sanitizers have run out.

Lawler and others say that the coronavirus outbreak will continue to spread as travelers from China to other nations exhibit symptoms of infection. He says we still don’t know how many people will get sick, and how many of those will die before the outbreak recedes.

To stop the spread of disease, public health officials will need to tell the truth and tell it quickly. But in the meantime, it might be worth deputizing an AI-driven epidemiologist.

Link
 

mariomike

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Jarnhamar said:
Lock down Toronto like they did Wuhan.

Colin P said:
First suspected case in Vancouver

GVA is the third-largest metropolitan area in Canada. Lock it down too?
 
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