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Canadian Federal Election 44 - Sep 2021

Infanteer

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Lol...it was usually the Trump team that was dinged with Twitter violations. Way to go LPC!
 

Remius

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Absolute train wreck of a first week.

If I had to guess, I think Trudeau is missing Gerald Butts.
It hasn’t been a good start to the LPC campaign. I think O’toole had the best start. We’ll see if he maintains. I wonder though if the liberals had bad campaigns under Butts but guys like Scheer ran worse ones.
 

QV

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Oldgateboatdriver

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I also found the age demographic interesting.

Team Blue ahead in the 18 - 49 age group.

Team Red ahead in the 50 - 65+ age group.

But if you look carefully, you'll see that it is because in that age group (18-49), they are a lot more "progressive" and have a marked tendency towards the NDP. Those are votes taken away from the Libs, splitting the left vote about 50/50, which explains the then leading appearance of the CPC.

What I do find interesting, however, is that the CPC vote percentage appears to be the same in all age categories. That would tend to dispel the notion that people get more conservatives as they age, unless you look at the LIB/NDP dynamics, which seems to be that as people age, they become less and less "progressive" (i.e. support the NDP) and more and more "centrist" (i.e. they support the Libs).

This also explains the Lib style: Campaign on the left, govern from the centre. The older crowd knows the Libs will govern from the centre, while any NDP vote the lib attracts from the younger crowd - who will be deceived at a later time - is a gain in "un-splitting" the "left". This also does not bode well for the CPC, which doesn't have a similar secondary well of voters to bring in. The only exception could be times (such as now) when the governing Libs go too far left in their decisions for their older voters and are punished by a certain percentage of them who decide to vote in the CPC in order to "refresh" the Lib leadership.
 

Good2Golf

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OBGD, you touch on it, but I think there are more “Blue Liberal/Martinites/Right-edge-of-Laurentians” than just a few. 1.5 terms of Trudeau/Butts/Telford et Cie. may be enough to dislodge a few. That and the NDP aren’t bleeding out would tend to indicate where the Liberals are losing votes.

338canada.com shows a slow but steady close between the LPC and CPC.

As of 22 Aug, they’re inside of 3 points apart.
B533DD28-285D-4E38-AC25-2FE23DFE6679.jpeg
 

Remius

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Probably because the Liberal campaign is built on hubris and arrogance.
Agreed but I think there is more to it.

this is only speculation on my part: I think the LPC decided to find a wedge issue and it isn’t working. Maybe it’s a first week attempt, see how it goes. It isn’t going well so maybe they will change tactics early on. Again, only speculation.

the CPC is doing it right in my mind. They’ve moved to center ( on most platforms they are almost identical or similar to the Lkberal). I think they are risk managing the SoCons. This platform should also worry fiscal conservatives as it is promising to spend as much or close enough to what the LPC platform promises. The CPC is banking on those folks to still vote Blue regardless of their policies and promises. More Important though is they seem to have moved away from the childish attack adds about Trudeau’s hair or whatever idiotic type ads they were doing. They are campaigning on their platform. And as such, not turning middle of the road voters like me off.
 

MilEME09

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OBGD, you touch on it, but I think there are more “Blue Liberal/Martinites/Right-edge-of-Laurentians” than just a few. 1.5 terms of Trudeau/Butts/Telford et Cie. may be enough to dislodge a few. That and the NDP aren’t bleeding out would tend to indicate where the Liberals are losing votes.

338canada.com shows a slow but steady close between the LPC and CPC.

As of 22 Aug, they’re inside of 3 points apart.
View attachment 66164
That margin for error Essentially puts them in a dead tie after 1 week, and if the liberal train keeps going down hill, I do see the hope of a CPC minority developing.
 

Good2Golf

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As long as O’Toole can show that they are not anti-climate change and leave social issues alone and show that they can be alternate choice to the LPC then yes.

And this prescient bit from the team at The Line:
The best shot the CPC has in this election is to spend the next four weeks smiling and showing everyone how non-threatening and cheerful they are while letting the left-wing parties viciously savage each other. The greatest hatred in Canadian partisan politics isn’t between the Libs and the Tories. It’s on the left, between Liberals and the NDP. That vote split might just work for the Tories if they shut up and stay out of the way.
Wasn’t it Napolean who said, “Never interfere with an enemy in the process of destroying themselves!”
 

mariomike

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More Important though is they seem to have moved away from the childish attack adds about Trudeau’s hair or whatever idiotic type ads they were doing.
They might not admit it, but maybe Team Blue took his advice?

And as such, not turning middle of the road voters like me off.
(y)
 

The Bread Guy

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... The greatest hatred in Canadian partisan politics isn’t between the Libs and the Tories. It’s on the left, between Liberals and the NDP ...
I've heard the same thing from federal officials who've had dealings with political staff, too - Team Blue & Team Red'ites, at least in the past, have been way more likely to chat each other up in the middle than Team Red & Team Orange'ites.
 

Altair

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Not sure whether it is to be believe or not, but PPC is surging to 7 percent in the polls, and vote PPC is trending on twitter.
 

Quirky

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This would be fantastic if they get more votes than the otherwise useless greens.
 

OldSolduer

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Team Trudeau is literally the mirror image of Trump. An underqualified, lightweight celebrity, drunk on his own inflated sense of self.
I've seen O'Toole on the TV spots and he has acquitted himself quite well thus far.
 
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