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Canadian Federal Election 44 - Sep 2021

Brad Sallows

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The two major parties typically hit majority territory around 38% of popular vote. The "5%" is the difference between majority and either minority or second place. O'Toole doesn't need to pull out policies that play well to the NDP's base; he's not getting those people regardless what he does.
 

mariomike

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But if you look carefully, you'll see that it is because in that age group (18-49), they are a lot more "progressive" and have a marked tendency towards the NDP. Those are votes taken away from the Libs, splitting the left vote about 50/50, which explains the then leading appearance of the CPC.

What I do find interesting, however, is that the CPC vote percentage appears to be the same in all age categories. That would tend to dispel the notion that people get more conservatives as they age, unless you look at the LIB/NDP dynamics, which seems to be that as people age, they become less and less "progressive" (i.e. support the NDP) and more and more "centrist" (i.e. they support the Libs).

This also explains the Lib style: Campaign on the left, govern from the centre. The older crowd knows the Libs will govern from the centre, while any NDP vote the lib attracts from the younger crowd - who will be deceived at a later time - is a gain in "un-splitting" the "left". This also does not bode well for the CPC, which doesn't have a similar secondary well of voters to bring in. The only exception could be times (such as now) when the governing Libs go too far left in their decisions for their older voters and are punished by a certain percentage of them who decide to vote in the CPC in order to "refresh" the Lib leadership.
That makes sense, OGBD.

Saw this on 338 today regarding the 55+ demographic,

 

Altair

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All of the "money for supply" has to pass through government filters at two levels (fed, prov), and three if municipalities are involved (and they will be). That means beak-wetting, so the cost per house goes up due to that friction.
but increased supply drives prices down, more than any beak wetting tack on would rise it.
 

RangerRay

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That seems to be an issue - no focus on national issues, much focus on things that the Provinces are supposed to handle.

This 👆

Something that has been grinding my gears for a long time are all the federal parties putting forth policy proposals that are properly left to the lower levels of government. The reason why we have nation-states is for “defence of the realm”. The pandemic has proved we don’t do “defence of the realm” very well. While the feds kicked money out the door very well, they ignored things like pandemic surveillance (in favour of promoting healthy lifestyles), borders and national PPE stocks (to be clear, I am criticizing both parties who have held power in the last 10 years). The provinces joined together into Confederation not for social welfare or resource development, but for mutual defence and international trade and diplomacy. It would be nice if the federal parties remembered their lanes according to the Constitution.
 

kev994

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This 👆

Something that has been grinding my gears for a long time are all the federal parties putting forth policy proposals that are properly left to the lower levels of government. The reason why we have nation-states is for “defence of the realm”. The pandemic has proved we don’t do “defence of the realm” very well. While the feds kicked money out the door very well, they ignored things like pandemic surveillance (in favour of promoting healthy lifestyles), borders and national PPE stocks (to be clear, I am criticizing both parties who have held power in the last 10 years). The provinces joined together into Confederation not for social welfare or resource development, but for mutual defence and international trade and diplomacy. It would be nice if the federal parties remembered their lanes according to the Constitution.
I suspect they know what their lanes are, they’re just scrambling to buy some votes knowing they’ll have to back out after. It’s not like parties routinely follow through on election promises anyway.
 

Altair

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This 👆

Something that has been grinding my gears for a long time are all the federal parties putting forth policy proposals that are properly left to the lower levels of government. The reason why we have nation-states is for “defence of the realm”. The pandemic has proved we don’t do “defence of the realm” very well. While the feds kicked money out the door very well, they ignored things like pandemic surveillance (in favour of promoting healthy lifestyles), borders and national PPE stocks (to be clear, I am criticizing both parties who have held power in the last 10 years). The provinces joined together into Confederation not for social welfare or resource development, but for mutual defence and international trade and diplomacy. It would be nice if the federal parties remembered their lanes according to the Constitution.
When Canadians are mad about things like housing prices pricing them out of the market, they don't tend to blame the municipal government or the provincial government, they blame the feds. Well, if the feds are going to take the heat, they are going to come in and try to be the solution.

When emotions are riding high, nobody wants to hear about jurisdiction.

So the blame lies with the voters as well, who do not clearly know about the separations of powers between the different levels of government.
 

Altair

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Municipalities hold the the keys to things like zoning that would truly increase housing stocks. They are also the most fearful of NIMBYism.
Yes, municipalities are the key to this. But nobody really cares about what city council or mayors are doing. Low turnout for municipal elections is evidence of that.

So when these issues pop up, and reach regional levels, the blame shifts to the provinces, like when housing prices were rising in BC and Ontario. Now that its gone Canada wide, and all can see it, they are associating the crisis with the feds, and they are getting burned by it. No federal party is going to dare utter jurisdiction right now.

Its the municipal level making the mess, but now the federal government (whomever is elected) will feel the need to swoop in and clean it up.
 

FSTO

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When Canadians are mad about things like housing prices pricing them out of the market, they don't tend to blame the municipal government or the provincial government, they blame the feds. Well, if the feds are going to take the heat, they are going to come in and try to be the solution.

When emotions are riding high, nobody wants to hear about jurisdiction.

So the blame lies with the voters as well, who do not clearly know about the separations of powers between the different levels of government.
I've been listening to a focus group that David Herle has assembled for this election. The lack of knowledge by some of the participants of our governmental system and divisions of power is breathtaking. Foreign Affairs is even worse.
 

daftandbarmy

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oopsie (did I spell that right?) :)
 

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Altair

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I've been listening to a focus group that David Herle has assembled for this election. The lack of knowledge by some of the participants of our governmental system and divisions of power is breathtaking. Foreign Affairs is even worse.
Canadians have finite time.

Work.

Kids.

Family.

Friends.

Entertainment.

Sports.

Shopping.

Finances.

They do not have the time, energy, or frankly, interest in keeping tabs on all 3 levels of government. They barely pay attention to the feds between elections, provincial less so, and municipal are an afterthought.

So when issues arise, its easiest to blame the feds.
 

Brad Sallows

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but increased supply drives prices down

If you wish to believe that "Government" is going to wave a magic wand and create more houses without taking away the tradesmen and materials from the houses they would have built (more cheaply) anyways, go ahead.
 

RangerRay

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Yes, municipalities are the key to this. But nobody really cares about what city council or mayors are doing. Low turnout for municipal elections is evidence of that.

So when these issues pop up, and reach regional levels, the blame shifts to the provinces, like when housing prices were rising in BC and Ontario. Now that its gone Canada wide, and all can see it, they are associating the crisis with the feds, and they are getting burned by it. No federal party is going to dare utter jurisdiction right now.

Its the municipal level making the mess, but now the federal government (whomever is elected) will feel the need to swoop in and clean it up.
Then the feds should say “Not my problem. Talk to your MLA/councillor“ instead of indulging everyone whingeing about local issues in a federal election. Then maybe people will take an interest in local politics, which has the most effect on your day-to-day life.
 

RangerRay

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Where the feds can do something on the housing front is change the laws and give resources to the RCMP to go after the international money launderers who are driving real estate prices through the roof in places like Vancouver and Toronto. Our current laws and policing on money laundering is a complete joke.
 

Good2Golf

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brihard

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Yes, municipalities are the key to this. But nobody really cares about what city council or mayors are doing. Low turnout for municipal elections is evidence of that.

So when these issues pop up, and reach regional levels, the blame shifts to the provinces, like when housing prices were rising in BC and Ontario. Now that its gone Canada wide, and all can see it, they are associating the crisis with the feds, and they are getting burned by it. No federal party is going to dare utter jurisdiction right now.

Its the municipal level making the mess, but now the federal government (whomever is elected) will feel the need to swoop in and clean it up.
The feds kick out a lot of money to assist with infrastructure projects. If they wanted to play hardball they could probably link federal infrastructure assistance (mass transit and transportation infrastructure are big ones) to municipal cooperation with efforts to improve housing supply.

On the municipal side, one thing that’s happening on a patchwork basis is bylaws targeting short term rentals such as Airbnb that lock down a lot of what would be entry level condo housing/rental apartments.

Interesting anecdote- my wife and I have been considering an investment property, likely a condo. The way purchase prices have spiked in the past year make the return on investment much more marginal, and rent would no longer service the mortgage, condo fees, and property tax. We were still on the fence, but the noise from both sides in this election makes it seem really likely that the return on investment versus carrying costs will no longer be worth the hassle.
 

Altair

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Then the feds should say “Not my problem. Talk to your MLA/councillor“ instead of indulging everyone whingeing about local issues in a federal election. Then maybe people will take an interest in local politics, which has the most effect on your day-to-day life.
I think there is one federal party that would say this.

So are you joining me in voting PPC?
 

mariomike

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Then maybe people will take an interest in local politics, which has the most effect on your day-to-day life.
Most of my neighbours take an interest in education, emergency services and law enforcement, health, parks and recreation, transportation, waste management, water and wastewater etc.

Federal politics is a team sport. Each with their loyal fan base cheering them on to a majority, or at least a minority.

Party politics may be more exciting than local, but there's no Team Red or Team Blue way to fix a pothole. :)
 

The Bread Guy

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Municipalities hold the the keys to things like zoning that would truly increase housing stocks. They are also the most fearful of NIMBYism.
That's true, but since municipalities tend to be "creatures of the province", provincial governments can do a lot to paint municipal governments into a corner re: what's wanted. At the province's peril, of course, but the tools are there.
 

The Bread Guy

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... The lack of knowledge by some of the participants of our governmental system and divisions of power is breathtaking ...
In one of my previous lives 30 years ago, covering city hall as a reporter, that was also true then, so it's sad (but not entirely surprising) to see things haven't changed much for the very reasons Altair gave. Another reason, I think, is that while it sounds like there's some education in the schools about how the national level of government works, not so much about how municipal governments work.
 
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