CDS on Future War & Modernization
- Thread starter Underway
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And now this, from Murray Brewster of CBC News, who is usually pretty well informed: "Military leaders from the U.S. and Canada have come to an agreement on the nuts and bolts retooling of Norad, CBC News has learned ... [and] ... It is a milestone that could end up pitting the next government in Ottawa against both the Trump administration and perhaps even northern Indigenous communities at home ..." and lots more.
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Underway said:
I'm always very skeptical of people who say "the nature of warfare has changed"
Has it really?
Or the whole "the people we used to recruit aren't the people we need anymore" really tired of hearing that narrative.
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Humphrey Bogart said:
If anything, all of the symmetries have intensified and the new ones add flavour to the punch. There is always going to be a need for large numbers of bayonets, just not in every operation. The ability to rapidly, almost instantly, scale up, down and sideways is the real issue, not just the so-called evolving nature of war-conflict-...even peace.
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Cloud Cover said:
This! I don't know how anyone can say that hard power is becoming less important. If anything, recent events have confirmed to me the opposite.
We talk about "hybrid warfare" as if it is some new concept. Personally, I just think it briefs well and makes for a good sound bite.
What the United States was doing in Ukraine prior to Russian Intervention was a form of "hybrid warfare". You can't deny it, I listened to the Victoria Nuland tapes and If anything, Russia showed that hard power matters and matters a lot. Likewise, Ukraine has managed to preserve itself as a state with hard power. Its massed artillery is the only thing keeping the "rebels" at bay.
The Russian response in Ukraine with "the little green men in Crimea" was a classic hard power play and a big message to the West: "we aren't playing your stupid back room games"
Likewise, Russia and Iran showed in Syria that hard power is everything.
Not only is Assad still in power, he has regained almost the entire country under his grasp.
The only reason Nicolás Maduro is still in power in Venezuela is because of hard power.
So called cyber warriors found out in May that cyber attacks against Israel are a one way ticket to having a JDAM dropped on you, and unlike Call of Duty, there are no respawns.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/zakdoffman/2019/05/06/israeli-military-strikes-and-destroys-hamas-cyber-hq-in-world-first/amp/
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You got it. All the fluff about grey zone is missing the point. While adversaries may operate "below the spectrum" (a flawed methodology) they are also employing violence when required. Russia didn't achieve its objectives in Syria through cyber attacks and internet trolls, it did it by combining those effects with artillery and air strikes.
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I would argue the contemporary adversary usually incorporates violence as part of the initial package, and not just “as required” per your finisher on combined effects. Violence delivers a message as no other medium can. That’s what makes them the bad guys, and they are good at it.
daftandbarmy
Army.ca Dinosaur
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Cloud Cover said:
"My mother said violence never solves anything." "So?" Mr. Dubois looked at her bleakly. "I'm sure the city fathers of Carthage would be glad to know that... I was not making fun of you personally; I was heaping scorn on an inexcusably silly idea — a practice I shall always follow. Anyone who clings to the historically untrue and thoroughly immoral doctrine that violence never settles anything I would advise to conjure up the ghosts of Napoleon Bonaparte and the Duke of Wellington and let them debate it. The ghost of Hitler could referee and the jury might well be the Dodo, the Great Auk, and the Passenger Pigeon. Violence, naked force, has settled more issues in history than has any other factor, and the contrary opinion is wishful thinking at its worst. Breeds that forget this basic truth have always paid for it with their lives and their freedoms." Lt. Col. Jean V. Dubois (Ret.)
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What is now "new," as in cyber and so on, is just the latest iteration of Sun Tzu's dictum:
故曰：知彼知己，百戰不殆；不知彼而知己，一勝一負；不知彼，不知己，每戰必殆。
Hence the saying: If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy,
for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.
What he was really saying is that you, as a commander, need a sound knowledge of your own forces ~ your weapons, your doctrine, your morale and, above all of your own logistics, and good intelligence about the enemy. In other words, good command and staff work will win battles. Cyber is just 20th century EW with a flashy new jacket ... and Turing and Knox and all the men and women at Bletchley, and Robert Watson-Watt and the Chain Home system were doing was little more than what Drake's picket ships and beacons along the South coast had done in 1588. It was, in other words, ever thus.
Technology and techno-babble often put a fancy gloss on something that is quite simple. I don't expect everyone to understand how and why radio works, but I do expect that all officers and NCOs can understand and do understand how a tactical communications system is supposed to work and everyone knows how to use it. (21st-century people like I used to be get paid to figure out what to do when the system isn't working.)
Modern computer-communication systems just allow you to do all the old fashioned things a bit quicker.
Think of NORAD and continental ballistic missile defence as Drake and Hawkins vs the Spanish Armada. The enemy can amass a devastating attacking force but good preparation (which included the raid on Cadiz in 1587 which weakened King Philipp's logistics by, amongst other things, burning all his seasoned barrel staves), a good early warning system and good weapons ~ small ships with long guns ~ and tactics can defeat it at (relatively) low cost.
故曰：知彼知己，百戰不殆；不知彼而知己，一勝一負；不知彼，不知己，每戰必殆。
Hence the saying: If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy,
for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.
What he was really saying is that you, as a commander, need a sound knowledge of your own forces ~ your weapons, your doctrine, your morale and, above all of your own logistics, and good intelligence about the enemy. In other words, good command and staff work will win battles. Cyber is just 20th century EW with a flashy new jacket ... and Turing and Knox and all the men and women at Bletchley, and Robert Watson-Watt and the Chain Home system were doing was little more than what Drake's picket ships and beacons along the South coast had done in 1588. It was, in other words, ever thus.
Technology and techno-babble often put a fancy gloss on something that is quite simple. I don't expect everyone to understand how and why radio works, but I do expect that all officers and NCOs can understand and do understand how a tactical communications system is supposed to work and everyone knows how to use it. (21st-century people like I used to be get paid to figure out what to do when the system isn't working.)
Modern computer-communication systems just allow you to do all the old fashioned things a bit quicker.
Think of NORAD and continental ballistic missile defence as Drake and Hawkins vs the Spanish Armada. The enemy can amass a devastating attacking force but good preparation (which included the raid on Cadiz in 1587 which weakened King Philipp's logistics by, amongst other things, burning all his seasoned barrel staves), a good early warning system and good weapons ~ small ships with long guns ~ and tactics can defeat it at (relatively) low cost.
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