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Saving Afghanistan: An Appeal and Plan for Urgent Action

devil39

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Apologies if previously posted, my research skills could not find this paper.

The Atlantic Council of The United States has published a paper on Afghanistan.  This is all about counterinsurgency at the Operational and Strategic levels, and hence "Nation Building".  Nice to see the military component placed in the proper perspective.  Counterinsurgency should not be primarily a military endeavour. 

http://www.acus.org/docs/012808-AfghanistanbriefwoSAG.pdf

This paper should be read in conjunction with Gen James L. Jones, Thomas Pickering, Barnett Rubin, James Dobbins et al Revitalizing our Efforts Rethinking Our Strategies

http://www.thepresidency.org/pubs/Afghan_Study_Group_final.pdf


Copied and posted in accordance with rules governing the theft of other peoples work and providing appropriate recognition ...... etc, etc....

Make no mistake, nato is not winning in Afghanistan

Unless this reality is understood and action is taken promptly, the future of Afghanistan is bleak, with regional and global impact. The purpose of this paper is to sound the alarm and to propose specific actions that must be taken now if Afghanistan is to succeed in becoming a secure, safe and functioning state.

On the security side, a stalemate of sorts has taken hold. nato and Afghan forces cannot be beaten by the insurgency or by the Taliban. Neither can our forces eliminate the Taliban by military means as long as they have sanctuary in Pakistan. Hence, the future of Afghanistan will be determined by progress or failure in the civil sector.

However, civil sector reform is in serious trouble. Little coordination exists among the many disparate international organizations and agencies active in Afghanistan. Legal and judicial reform (including reducing corruption), and control of narcotics are interdependent efforts and must receive the highest priority. To add insult to injury, of every dollar of aid spent on Afghanistan, less than ten percent goes directly to Afghans, further compounding reform and reconstruction problems.

Urgent changes are required now to prevent Afghanistan from becoming a failing or failed state. Not just the future of the Afghan people is at stake. If Afghanistan fails, the possible strategic consequences will worsen regional instability, do great harm to the fight against Jihadist and religious extremism, and put in grave jeopardy nato’s future as a credible, cohesive and relevant military alliance.

Building a functioning Afghanistan is inherently fraught with difficulty. Much of the nation’s infrastructure was destroyed by the Soviet occupation and the years of Taliban rule. But despite the resources and nearly seven years of effort put into Afghanistan by the Afghan government and the international community, the situation on the civil side is deteriorating. Taliban control of the sparsely populated parts of Afghanistan is increasing. Civil reforms, reconstruction, and development work have not gained traction across the whole country, especially in the South.

Surprisingly, many nato nations engaged in Afghanistan lack a sense of urgency in comprehending the gravity of the situation and the need for effective action now. Fortunately, nato and the George W. Bush administration have announced separately that studies are now underway to assess conditions on both the security and civil sectors in Afghanistan as a first step that will result in corrective action. But hope is not a strategy or a plan of action. And unfortunately, recent dissension within nato over the ability of the different militaries to conduct counter-insurgency operations has not helped.

The dangers and difficulties in Afghanistan have been intensified following the assassination of former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto in December. The turmoil and violence Pakistan faces with Bhutto’s death and the February elections could too easily overwhelm any interest Islamabad might have to work with Afghan President Hamid Karzai to secure the Pakistan-Afghan border. That means a porous border that will continue to provide a safe haven for Taliban and insurgents to stage attacks into Afghanistan.

Strategic Recommendations in summary

Swift Completion of the Security and Reconstruction Assessment: Without properly assessing the current situation, it will be impossible to design a coherent way forward for nato and the international community in Afghanistan.

A Comprehensive Campaign Plan and Strategy: One essential step to achieving success in Afghanistan is to create a comprehensive campaign plan that brings together all of the disparate security, reconstruction and governance efforts and coordinates and integrates their work.

Appointment by the UN of a High Commissioner: He must use his stature, gravitas, and authority to cajole, convince or even coerce better coordination and integration of the international effort with the Karzai government.

Create a Regional Approach and Regional Solutions: Bringing in interested parties and neighbors could be done through a meeting or conference that could include the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (of which Russia and China are key members); India; Iran; and of course Pakistan.


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