Trudeau Popularity - or not (various polling, etc.)

[daftandbarmy]

Lotsa details in the attachment....

‘Although Trudeau remains the top choice as preferred PM, he has hit a low not seen since the summer of 2019. Coronavirus remains top issue.’

- Nik Nanos


https://nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Political-Package-2022-01-28-FR-G51vSVvv5.pdf

Mod edit of thread title to clarify not JUST Nanos polling being discussed. Milnet.ca Staff

 

[CBH99]

Question for any & all… has ANYBODY on this site ever been called or contacted, or asked questions, that are for these polls the media publishes? Does anybody know anybody who has been?

I’m just wondering who the heck these so-called polling companies actually contact. And is there a way to verify whether the poll was actually conducted and somewhat accurate, or are they making it up?


(I’ve never been contacted, and I don’t know a single person who has.)

 

[OldSolduer]

Question for any & all… has ANYBODY on this site ever been called or contacted, or asked questions, that are for these polls the media publishes? Does anybody know anybody who has been?

I’m just wondering who the heck these so-called polling companies actually contact. And is there a way to verify whether the poll was actually conducted and somewhat accurate, or are they making it up?


(I’ve never been contacted, and I don’t know a single person who has.)

They contact those that live in ridings favorable to the PM.

 

[mariomike]

And is there a way to verify whether the poll was actually conducted and somewhat accurate, or are they making it up?

How accuarate are Canadian polls?

How accurate are Canadian polls? - Macleans.ca

Philippe J. Fournier: A 338Canada analysis shows the hits and misses of the country's top polling firms—and the importance of polling aggregates

www.macleans.ca

 

[CBH99]

They contact those that live in ridings favorable to the PM.

Well that explains a lot actually

How accurate are Canadian polls? - Macleans.ca

Philippe J. Fournier: A 338Canada analysis shows the hits and misses of the country's top polling firms—and the importance of polling aggregates

www.macleans.ca

Thanks for posting this - genuinely going to dig into this a bit.

 

[Spencer100]

You could a put sock as leader of the Liberals and it would poll at 25%

 

[Remius]

Well that explains a lot actually



Thanks for posting this - genuinely going to dig into this a bit.

Methodology is what really needs looking at. How they conduct the poll, what margins of error and tools the use to mitigate variances etc.

Polls are terrible predictors. But they are good at giving you a snapshot in time at a particular time.

Most people have no idea how polling actually works so easily dismiss them or accept them based on their own biases.

 

[Blackadder1916]

Question for any & all… has ANYBODY on this site ever been called or contacted, or asked questions, that are for these polls the media publishes? . . .

Yes. I have, many times over the past decade or two. Probably not for this particular poll, haven't responded to any for several months.

 

[JLB50]

Mind you, none of the other leaders are all that great either. Having said that, I think he should resign even though both my wife and I are long-time liberal supporters. He has reached his level of incompetence even if he does wear fancy socks.

 

[dapaterson]

Polls are based on small samples. Reputable polling companies disclose the size of their samples, the methodology, and the confidence intervals.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Polls are based on small samples. Reputable polling companies disclose the size of their samples, the methodology, and the confidence intervals.

'It's complicated' is likely the best answer, and the best polling firms ruthlessly protect their methodologies, like any other professional services organization.

These guys share a bit about their approach, which is somewhat enlightening. If you happen to be a higher level degree in statitics you might have a chance at a job at one of these places

U.S. Survey Methodology​

A typical Pew Research Center national survey – regardless of mode – is designed and implemented with a total survey error approach in mind, aimed at minimizing coverage error (deviations of frame population from target population), sampling error (deviation of sample from sampling frame), nonresponse error (respondents’ deviation from sample), measurement error (deviations of responses from underlying measurements/attributes), and processing and adjustment error (error introduced post data collection but prior to data analysis).

U.S. Survey Methodology

A typical Pew Research Center national survey - regardless of mode - is designed and implemented with a total survey error approach in mind, aimed at

www.pewresearch.org

 

[YZT580]

You could a put sock as leader of the Liberals and it would poll at 25%

they have. Nice argyle ones too

 

[Halifax Tar]

You could a put sock as leader of the Liberals and it would poll at 25%

To be fair it's the same for the CPC

 

[Spencer100]

You could a put sock as leader of the Liberals and it would poll at 25%

Damn...it was right there! No one bit....

 

[Brad Sallows]

Single poll instances are not worth much. Averages are not much better. Trends of averages over time are worth looking at.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Single poll instances are not worth much. Averages are not much better. Trends of averages over time are worth looking at.

'A week is a long time in politics.'

- Harold Wilson

 

[FSTO]

I just saw this on Twitter. Have they been amazing?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1496923496005386242

 

[CBH99]

I just saw this on Twitter. Have they been amazing?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1496923496005386242

April Fools isn’t for another month or so… c’mon now…

I almost took this seriously for a moment, then realized someone must be punking me

 

[CBH99]

To be fair it's the same for the CPC

True.

And that really sucks… this election was literally for the taking.

Anybody who could string together a sentence without studdering or talking about being ‘woke’, who could present reasonable solutions to challenges, and actually have some ambition and vision for the future - could have been voted in, regardless of party.

Probably one of the most fair opportunities for candidates to shine, and yet none of them did.

I follow politics somewhat closely, and even I didn’t know what Erin O’Toole looked like - and thats not good if you’re the face of the opposition. I had to Google him.


(To summarize…yes. A sock would have been a viable candidate in all actuality. Would it have signed off on important documents? Honestly, maybe. Would it have invoked the Emergencies Act as an act of self preservation after literally pissing off the entire country? I’d hope not…I expect better from my socks.)

 

[Old Sweat]

Question for any & all… has ANYBODY on this site ever been called or contacted, or asked questions, that are for these polls the media publishes? Does anybody know anybody who has been?

I’m just wondering who the heck these so-called polling companies actually contact. And is there a way to verify whether the poll was actually conducted and somewhat accurate, or are they making it up?


(I’ve never been contacted, and I don’t know a single person who has.)

I have been used by EKOS research as an on line polling resource for several years, perhaps for more than a decade. They have me categorized by age group, work status, income, etc and it is not unusual to be dropped if they have already filled their quota for my demographic.