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Ukraine - Superthread

The Bread Guy

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MCG said:
How do you lead a peacekeeping mission when you have been one of the outspoken sabre-rattlers for one of the belligerent faction?
I guess it makes as much sense as putting the peacekeepers between the rebels and Ukraine instead of between Ukraine and Russia.
 

Kat Stevens

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MCG said:
How do you lead a peacekeeping mission when you have been one of the outspoken sabre-rattlers for one of the belligerent faction?

We were two months into OP HARMONY Roto 0, when His Most Regal Stupidness PM Mulroney declared loudly and proudly that the Serbs were the bad guys of record. We were in Serbian held Vukovar at the time, and the vibe there became very hostile, very quickly.
 

Czech_pivo

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Russia seizes 3 Ukrainian Warships, tensions highly charged


This could go bad very quick.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/25/europe/russia-ukraine-kerch-strait-intl/index.html
 

Journeyman

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There is a bit more info, including video footage, at NavalToday.com:  "Russia fires on, seizes three Ukrainian Navy ships in Sea of Azov dispute escalation."
 

CBH99

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Been reading a lot about how Ukraine has called emergency sessions and is on the verge of declaring martial law.

Question - how on earth does declaring martial law free your sailors & ships from Russian custody? 
 

MilEME09

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https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/world-news/744945/Ukraine-crisis-russia-kerch-strait-crimea-black-sea-ships-seized

Martial law has already been declared, some are saying its a move to cancel presidential elections. In the mean time it looks like the west is trying to confirm the claim of a military build up.
 

The Bread Guy

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Bumped with some of the latest signs from The Institute for the Study of War - their summary:
Key Takeaway: Russia will likely escalate militarily against Ukraine imminently. Russia is setting military conditions to prepare its forces for open conflict with Ukraine. Russia is already creating the pretext to escalate by circulating the false narrative that Ukraine and the West are preparing imminent attacks, including a chemical weapons attack, in Eastern Ukraine. Russia may fabricate evidence of a chemical weapons attack – or may itself conduct a chemical weapons attack -- near Russia-backed areas of Ukraine to create chaos, justify the overt involvement of the Russian Armed Forces, and set conditions for future military operations. NATO’s inaction following Russia’s escalation in the Sea of Azov is likely emboldening Putin to continue challenging the West in Ukraine. NATO must reassess the threat that Russia poses to European security and the rules-based international order and respond decisively to deter an increasingly likely Russian military escalation in Ukraine itself.
:pop:

Latest on Op UNIFIER here.

Mod note:  moved latest Kerch Strait incident info here to keep all UKR stuff together.
 

MilEME09

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http://amn.one/rpUCR0k

"“Russia may be preparing to fabricate or launch a chemical weapons attack in Ukraine in order to create a false pretext to escalate against Ukraine,” the ISW suggested. “Russia likely perceives the lack of a unified NATO response to Moscow’s aggression in the Sea of Azov as an opportunity to escalate against Ukraine and elsewhere in the future.”"

Well if this comes to pass and the west does nothing i give up on understanding where the red line is.
 

Journeyman

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MilEME09 said:
Well if this comes to pass and the west does nothing i give up on understanding where the red line is.
For whatever it's worth, Ukraine ceased seeking NATO membership in 2010;  Yanukovych chose to seek non-aligned status.  There is no legal obligation to come to their aid (given the circumstances, any number of responses are possible, but nothing is obligatory). 

Our troops there have even less trip-wire value than those in Latvia ... or Mali (which is a different cluster- )
 

The Bread Guy

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On a less pessimistic note, some reasons to believe RUS isn't going to invade UKR (again/more) right now
  • (Generally) bad idea to start a war in the winter (although RUS's been more successful than most in that respect, playing defence, anyway)
  • Potential for mo', worse sanctions (as well as maybe more unity to keep/press harder by Europe)
  • Potential for increase in U.S. weapons aid to UKR & possible mil response from "allies" of UKR
  • Potential big cost in blood/treasure - both the fighting as well as reconstructing afterwards
  • Could RUS stick out a guerilla war in UKR?
 

Colin Parkinson

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Create border incidents, Russia responds with force, turns off gas in the winter to Europe, Russian troops move into pre-defined areas and hunker down in defense, all while the West struggles to deal with the political side and UN declarations.
 

The Bread Guy

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Glass is 1/2 empty - maybe ...
Russia continues to build up and prepare its military forces for possible offensive operations against Ukraine from the Crimean Peninsula and the east. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has been warning that Russia could conduct such operations at short notice since December 11, 2018. It remains impossible to assess whether Russian President Vladimir Putin has decided to launch an offensive or will do so, or whether the visible military preparations are intended to pressure Ukraine and its partners without escalating to additional open conflict. The data suggests that Putin is preparing to attack, although alternative interpretations are possible ...
 

The Bread Guy

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The Bread Guy

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In the words of a Putin parody account on Twitter, "Propaganda 101: Accuse your enemy of that which you are guilty" ...

3 Dec 2018:  "(Pro-RUS rebel) DPR intelligence: Ukrainian offensive will begin with chemical attack and provocations" (in Russian) *

Fast forward to ...

13 Dec 2018:  "DPR says Ukraine amassed chemicals at central Mariupol factory"*
13 Dec 2018:  "DPR urges UN, OSCE, ICRC to prevent chemical attack in Mariupol"*
19 Dec 2018:  "Is the U.S Planning a Chemical Weapons False Flag in the Donbass?"*

19 Dec 2018:  "Russian mass media spread fake about allegedly prepared chemical attack in Donbas" (UKR media)

Fast forward to ...

29 Dec 2018:  "Ukraine has seen evidence of Russia preparing chemical weapons in Donbas" (Defence Blog)

29 Dec 2018:  "Russia is Preparing to Employ Chemical Weapons in the Occupied Territory of Donbas" (UKR MoD Defence Intelligence site, in English)

* - Original links to pro-Russian sites, so this link is to an archive.org version of the article to avoid any nasties coming down the wire to your computer.
 

211RadOp

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Ukrainian court finds ex-president guilty of treason

The Associated Press
Published Thursday, January 24, 2019 7:23AM EST 

MINSK, Belarus -- A court in the Ukrainian capital Kyiv on Thursday found former President Viktor Yanukovych guilty of treason and helping Russia annex the Crimean peninsula.

The Kyiv court began reading out the verdict in Yanukovych's case, a process that is expected to take at least the whole day. The judge already declared Yanukovych guilty of treason and premeditated actions to alter the country's borders, and will rule later on the other charges.

...

Earlier in the trial, Yanukovych testified via video link from Moscow. His lawyer has said that the former president would not be able to follow the verdict because he is in hospital after sustaining injuries on a Moscow tennis court in November.

Prosecutors have asked the court to sentence Yanukovych to 15 years in prison.



https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/ukrainian-court-finds-ex-president-guilty-of-treason-1.4266978
 
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