Ukraine - Superthread

[Colin Parkinson]

A Cuban teenager was offered a job doing 'construction work' in Russia. Instead he was sent to fight on the front lines in Ukraine.

A 19-year-old Cuban accepted a job offer he received on WhatsApp to do construction work but ended up in the trenches in Ukraine, Time reported.

news.yahoo.com

This is pretty disturbing also. Foreign workers being offered non combat type work, and then being forced into combat.


If this type of stuff is even remotely true, I wonder how long can Russia keep it up without outright mutiny in their ranks.

Also gets rid of unemployed young people, who are always the ones who get involved in overthrowing the current regime.....

 

[Lumber]

Apparently RuAF AD is AWOL

https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1704205600664494328?s=46&t=fCYJdxwzyypPWGOhHnLHLw

How useful are these strikes anyway? I feel like they must have next to zero combat effectives and are much more useful as a public relations tool (they look cool on videos), and to a lesser extent (much lesser) they damage morale/resolve of the enemy (even though they aren't likely to hit you, the sound of the coming down and the resultant explosions must really shake the mobiks.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Also gets rid of unemployed young people, who are always the ones who get involved in overthrowing the current regime.....

Waiting reports of Ukkies capturing a bunch of North Koreans from the front lines, give it another week or 10 days I expect.

 

[KevinB]

How useful are these strikes anyway? I feel like they must have next to zero combat effectives and are much more useful as a public relations tool (they look cool on videos), and to a lesser extent (much lesser) they damage morale/resolve of the enemy (even though they aren't likely to hit you, the sound of the coming down and the resultant explosions must really shake the mobiks.

The rockets are unguided ‘area effect’. So shock and awe, but I suspect that Ukraine wouldn’t be pushing AH’s on the front solely for PR. So there must be some sort of tangible gain from those attacks.
Potentially it’s just a positive morale boost for the AFU ground troops, and a negative for the RuAF, but I suspect there is something more.

 

[rnkelly]

The rockets are unguided ‘area effect’. So shock and awe, but I suspect that Ukraine wouldn’t be pushing AH’s on the front solely for PR. So there must be some sort of tangible gain from those attacks.
Potentially it’s just a positive morale boost for the AFU ground troops, and a negative for the RuAF, but I suspect there is something more.

It looked like a PR video to me. Drone camera positioning (through the rockets) and generous use of preemptive flares (of the most pyrotechnic variety). Agree with the rest of the assessment and I don’t doubt they do something similar for real but probably slightly less “theatrical”.

 

[Retired AF Guy]

And now something different from the usual death and destruction:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1704577178468315556

 

[brihard]

The rockets are unguided ‘area effect’. So shock and awe, but I suspect that Ukraine wouldn’t be pushing AH’s on the front solely for PR. So there must be some sort of tangible gain from those attacks.
Potentially it’s just a positive morale boost for the AFU ground troops, and a negative for the RuAF, but I suspect there is something more.

Oh come on Kev. There’s no way, absolutely no way, that you can look at that video and try to tell us in good faith that you actually believe anything even conceptually resembling a successful effect on target can result from a couple helicopters pitching up and blasting their rockets off into the sky, on what are quite visibly vastly disparate trajectories. A few rockets from any given salvo may coincidentally land in the same grid square, but they aren’t actually achieving anything this way. No way this can even be dignified with the term ‘fires’. We keep seeing these videos and they’re always dumb and a waste.

 

[KevinB]

We keep seeing these videos and they’re always dumb and a waste.

Not sure I’d go that far.
Yes I agree that the likelihood of any of those rockets doing anything but making noise is slim.
But as I said above, I suspect that since the supply of Hinds is limited they have some sort of reason beyond ‘they can’, or morale effects.

 

[FJAG]

Oh come on Kev. There’s no way, absolutely no way, that you can look at that video and try to tell us in good faith that you actually believe anything even conceptually resembling a successful effect on target can result from a couple helicopters pitching up and blasting their rockets off into the sky, on what are quite visibly vastly disparate trajectories. A few rockets from any given salvo may coincidentally land in the same grid square, but they aren’t actually achieving anything this way. No way this can even be dignified with the term ‘fires’. We keep seeing these videos and they’re always dumb and a waste.

One of the problems with all these precision strike videos is that we've lost sight of the fact that until only a few years ago area neutralization was a major function of artillery including attack helicopters and rocket launchers like the BM-30 series - especially in the Soviet/Russian model.

Neutralizing an area target is not the same as destroying a point target. Area neutralization is generally designed to get the troops within the strike area to keep their heads down and be ineffective while other forces manoeuvre onto them. Actually destroying anything is purely a benefit.

I'm assuming that those impacts at the end are from the camera slewing around and recording the rocket impacts. If so, they are fairly typical of what I'd expect from an air launched spread. They would admittedly be of little value if there wasn't some manoeuvre going on that this is in support of.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Oh come on Kev. There’s no way, absolutely no way, that you can look at that video and try to tell us in good faith that you actually believe anything even conceptually resembling a successful effect on target can result from a couple helicopters pitching up and blasting their rockets off into the sky, on what are quite visibly vastly disparate trajectories. A few rockets from any given salvo may coincidentally land in the same grid square, but they aren’t actually achieving anything this way. No way this can even be dignified with the term ‘fires’. We keep seeing these videos and they’re always dumb and a waste.

If you look at most of the drone footage that comes out of the battlefields, the contested areas are utterly pockmarked by shells landing far from what appears to be the objective. If the Ukrainian air force does not make an appearance, then the thought is "bloody cowards not supporting us". But by doing these lobbing attacks, they can contribute, have a morale effect and save the helicopter for another day. both sides do this, so it's ingrained into their doctrine.

 

[Furniture]

Not sure I’d go that far.
Yes I agree that the likelihood of any of those rockets doing anything but making noise is slim.
But as I said above, I suspect that since the supply of Hinds is limited they have some sort of reason beyond ‘they can’, or morale effects.

I think it's easy to forget how demoralizing that sort of attack can be.

For a closer to home example, look at the number of people who were/are still shaken the Taliban rocket attacks on KAF. They were sporadic and extremely ineffective militarily, but they hurt morale.

Now multiply that by 100, and make it conscripts rather than volunteers that know they have world class medical support a short drive/helo ride away.

 

[CBH99]

Cool video, that’s a lot of flares though.

Apparently they have not been briefed on forest fire prevention...

 

[CBH99]

I think it's easy to forget how demoralizing that sort of attack can be.

For a closer to home example, look at the number of people who were/are still shaken the Taliban rocket attacks on KAF. They were sporadic and extremely ineffective militarily, but they hurt morale.

Now multiply that by 100, and make it conscripts rather than volunteers that know they have world class medical support a short drive/helo ride away.

Ah yes, those 107mm rocket attacks on KAF in the middle of the night (or day)

I remember in 2006, everyone started running for the local bunkers. My first time running for a bunker, I was surprised how many people were giggling, and how many snacks ppl managed to grab before they made their run

As a younger guy who was experiencing his first rocker attack, I think the casual attitude of most ppl in the bunker actually had a positive effect on my morale

Fast forward to 2010, and the siren went off while I was sitting on the can in one of the ATCO trailer bathrooms, reading a book. Only one other guy in there, 2 doors down, casually asks..."You goin?" (to the bunker) to which I replied "Nope..." and continued to read my book


Once you realized it was more of a morale damaging attack than one that posed any real danger, and the danger was equal whether you stayed put or ran to a bunker, we mostly ignored them.

Some ppl were quite shaken up by them though, and still are.

 

[Blackadder1916]

Would this be considered impressment? If so, add another one to the very long tally of war crimes committed by Russia

I think we agree that the Russians (government and people*) are a despicable lot; collectively and individually* responsible for a long list of war crimes. But as despicable as it is to lie to an individual about the terms of their employment with a military organization, it wouldn't be the first time that a recruiter lied and depending upon the law in the lying POS country may not be illegal, though it may have been a "regular crime" in the home country of the poor sucker who ended up in a trench in Ukraine. "Impressment", while a crude form of "conscription", is not necessarily illegal nor is it necessarily illegal to conscript foreign nationals into one's military. It only becomes a "war crime" when it is done by "Compelling the nationals of the hostile party to take part in the operations of war directed against their own country, even if they were in the belligerent's service before the commencement of the war" or by "Conscripting or enlisting children under the age of fifteen years into the national armed forces or using them to participate actively in hostilities".

It sucks to be that Cuban teenager but forewarned is forearmed. Would you have trusted any business arrangement with a Russian organization, even before this war?


* I'll accept that there is a difference between government and people, however, I'll apply an overarching prejudice against the lot until the individual demonstrates opposition to the policy of his government or that they are not complicit in war crimes. It seems to be similar to a view about Croats expressed in another recent thread.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Likely a lot of those Cubans felt trapped and this appeared to be the "Least worse option". With Russia's star fading. Now might be a good time to dangle some carrots in front of the Cuban government.

 

[FormerHorseGuard]

If you look at most of the drone footage that comes out of the battlefields, the contested areas are utterly pockmarked by shells landing far from what appears to be the objective. If the Ukrainian air force does not make an appearance, then the thought is "bloody cowards not supporting us". But by doing these lobbing attacks, they can contribute, have a morale effect and save the helicopter for another day. both sides do this, so it's ingrained into their doctrine.

If you are a MASH fan you might remember the 5 o'clock Charlie episode 1973, "Every day for the past six weeks, at 5:00 o'clock p.m. on the nose, a North Korean "washout from Kamikaze school" has let loose a bomb in the general direction of the hospital's sub-ammo dump. Very affectionately known as "Five O'Clock Charlie," the only thing he hits on the nose is the time. Every day, Radar opens book on the day's exploits and takes bets on how close (in yards) Charlie will come to the sub-ammo dump. It is an occasion for cocktails and frivolity at 4077, not unlike the Kentucky Derby... until Frank demands Henry get him a "nug" from Brigadier Gen. Clayton. Capt. Phil Cardozo, the singing dentist, gives the drunken duo a new slant on things. If there is anything that will beat Frank and his nug, it is 4 dozen sheets, 18 gallons of mercurochrome and a little thing called psychology."


If you are a guy in a trench facing the enemy every day and at random time of day with no warning, a plane or helicopter pops up and fires towards your position, it does not have to hit you or even come close to hitting you. The stand to alert comes up, you lose sleep, you lose meal times ( if they feed you) lose time for the 3 S of the day, your morale starts to suffer. On MASH it became a big joke and a betting pool, but in life this would have the same effect as a sniper firing at you once or twice a day. The sniper does not have to hit anything but has the fired upon troops wondering if the snipers' aim is going to be improved upon and if the stray bullet has their name on it.

Random rockets, artillery strikes and snipers can mess with a soldier's mind and be every effect in wasting his or her time waiting the enemy to come over the hill. Also serves as a reminder we are here and you are over there, and you could be next.

 

[CBH99]

If you are a MASH fan you might remember the 5 o'clock Charlie episode 1973, "Every day for the past six weeks, at 5:00 o'clock p.m. on the nose, a North Korean "washout from Kamikaze school" has let loose a bomb in the general direction of the hospital's sub-ammo dump. Very affectionately known as "Five O'Clock Charlie," the only thing he hits on the nose is the time. Every day, Radar opens book on the day's exploits and takes bets on how close (in yards) Charlie will come to the sub-ammo dump. It is an occasion for cocktails and frivolity at 4077, not unlike the Kentucky Derby... until Frank demands Henry get him a "nug" from Brigadier Gen. Clayton. Capt. Phil Cardozo, the singing dentist, gives the drunken duo a new slant on things. If there is anything that will beat Frank and his nug, it is 4 dozen sheets, 18 gallons of mercurochrome and a little thing called psychology."


If you are a guy in a trench facing the enemy every day and at random time of day with no warning, a plane or helicopter pops up and fires towards your position, it does not have to hit you or even come close to hitting you. The stand to alert comes up, you lose sleep, you lose meal times ( if they feed you) lose time for the 3 S of the day, your morale starts to suffer. On MASH it became a big joke and a betting pool, but in life this would have the same effect as a sniper firing at you once or twice a day. The sniper does not have to hit anything but has the fired upon troops wondering if the snipers' aim is going to be improved upon and if the stray bullet has their name on it.

Random rockets, artillery strikes and snipers can mess with a soldier's mind and be every effect in wasting his or her time waiting the enemy to come over the hill. Also serves as a reminder we are here and you are over there, and you could be next.

This is true. Even suspecting an enemy sniper being 'out there' somewhere can bring operations to an immediate halt, and limit what people actually do/accomplish (spending most of their time working and travelling behind cover, until the sniper threat has been relieved from their psyche)

These rocket attacks have a similar affect, as mentioned before. If 60 rockets literally rain down from the skies without warning & start exploding all over the grid your in, it's going to be terrifying and thought provoking...

"Lucky none from that volley hit us, but who knows about next time..." Or "Damnit a few trucks/guys/supplies got hit in that random volley! How can we defend against something we don't know is coming and can't see until they explode!?"

Either way it damages morale, and hopefully a few enemy targets also (although I do agree, it looks like the helo world's version of spray & pray, because it is...)



(Are we not in the process of trying to disarm & disassemble like 80,000 CRV-7 rockets?? Maybe we should donate what's left to Ukraine? Doesn't cost us anything & they could put them to incredibly good use, no??)

 

[KevinB]

ATACMS finally announced.
Small initial batch (~50 ish as I understand).

Also Avengers are now released (No not Iron Man and Thor, but the AD system).

 

[TacticalTea]

ATACMS finally announced.
Small initial batch (~50 ish as I understand).

Also Avengers are now released (No not Iron Man and Thor, but the AD system).

Love avengers. That's awesome.

 

[KevinB]

There was pretty much open admission two weeks ago that ATACMS were going, but POTUS wanted to be face to face with President Zelensky when it was made public.


Sounds like agreement to send cluster munition rockets for the MLRS and HIMARS was made as well.

It appears that both the Hummer version as well as the fixed ‘pedestal’ version of the Avenger system will be going.
I haven’t been tracking what’s going on with Avenger recently - but I’m guessing these are ones that aren’t yet upgraded to STC. Which will make the M3 (fast fire) .50 less effective for C-UAS.
But I could be wrong as the entire fleet may have been upgraded already to Digital Slew to Cue tracking.

It’s a VSHORAD, but a very good system for point defense - and it’s also Infantry Proof