Ukraine - Superthread

[OldSolduer]

Georgia, Crimea, Donbas, how many more times will we let it play out?

I was referring to Austria pre WW2

 

[The Bread Guy]

Have to wonder in the Ukkie’s have a few tricks up their sleeves as well ...

As good as the Russian military may be, I wouldn't underestimate the thugs who helped out early against the eastern separatists, then got disbanded and/or absorbed into the UKR military because ... who wants political or oligarch-linked militias, right?

 

[Czech_pivo]

Here’s some background reading on what occurred in the Ukraine from the fall of 44 until the early 1950’s. Most notably a lot of this occurred in western Ukraine, an area today that is still hotly anti-Russian and would undoubtedly give them the most trouble.

“
According to the information which was suppressed for many years in the soviet archives, in the period from February 1944 to May 1946 about 111,000 UIA fighters were killed, 250,000 were arrested and imprisoned, and 203,000 were deported from Ukraine and placed in concentration camps. Within the same period of time, about 14,000 Soviet troops and members of punitive detachments engaged in operations against the OUN-UIA, died in battle. By one account, over 35,000 members of the Soviet secret police system were killed by the OUN-UPA after World War II.

The Soviet regime imprisoned or deported to Siberia more than 900,000 residents of Ukraine. The peak of the deportations was a special operation called Zakhid (West) which was carried out on 21 October 1947. During the course of that one day 76,192 people were forcibly deported from Western Ukraine. The goal of the mass deportations was to destroy the base of the insurgent movement.

In 1945–46, the Ukrainian insurgents gradually changed course from an active offensive to defensive methods; similarly, the scale of their operations was also gradually reduced. By 1946, the UPA operated only in the Carpathian Mountains and the Zakerzonnia region. But by late 1949, pursuant to a resolution of the Ukrainian Supreme Liberation Council and on orders from the Supreme Command of the UPA, they too were disbanded or demobilized.

Between 1945 and 1950, Ukrainian insurgents carried out a number of operations on the territory of the Belorussian SSR, Poland, Czechoslovakia, and Romania. In 1950, UPA soldiers made an unsuccessful bid to carry out a raid into Lithuania in order to join their efforts with the Lithuanian insurgents, who were known as “forest brothers.”

The UPA operated with large-scale forces until the summer of 1945, when it was forced to reorganize because of heavy losses. Individual units were turned into smaller ones, and ailing, battle-fatigued, and elderly insurgents, as well as those with large families, were demobilized or assigned to the OUN regional network. After the late 1940s, the larger UPA units were disbanded.

The Ukrainian freedom fighters continued to operate in the conditions of the enemy’s all-out offensive and blockade, which lasted from late 1945 until July 1946. In the period from December 1945 to February 1946, 15,562 military-secret service operations took place during the so-called “Great Blockade.” As a result of these tactics, over 4,200 Ukrainian insurgents were killed, and more than 9,400 people were taken prisoner or arrested. A total of 130 armed formations of the Ukrainian underground were eliminated.”

https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/war/ukraine-40s.html

The fellow who was the best man at my wedding had an uncle, he’s fathers oldest brother, who worked in Munich in the mid 1950s through 1970’s for VOA’s Ukrainian section and he used to tell some hell good stories of what they got up to back then to stir the pot for the Soviets.

 

[Spencer100]

I saw this on Quora. I know its photo shopped. Would be funny if true. I guess it means "dick" lol.

 

[The Bread Guy]

A few recent tidbits ....

• "Law on foundations of national resistance enters into force in Ukraine -- On Saturday, January 1, the law "On the foundations of national resistance" adopted by the Verkhovna Rada in July 2021 enters into force in Ukraine. According to the law, national resistance is an integral part of the comprehensive defense of the state, which includes a set of measures for the widest possible involvement of citizens of Ukraine in ensuring military security, sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country, deterring and repelling aggression ..." (UKR media)
• "Ukraine Requires Women To Register for Military Conscription as Russia Threat Looms" (Coffee or Die blog)
• "Ukrainian government expands military conscription among women" (World Socialists)
• "Defense Ministry plans to revise list of professions liable for military service for women 'towards reduction' " (UKR media)
• "Estonia plans to supply Ukraine with anti-tank weapons, howitzers" (UKR media)
• "State planning artillery, missile system supply to Ukrainian armed forces -- The state is planning to provide significant numbers of artillery and missile systems to Ukraine amid concerns over a build-up of Russian military forces on its borders. Under international rules, permission will be needed from the United States and also Finland and Germany, the countries of origin of the equipment, before the aid can go ahead ..." (EST govt-funded media)

 

[The Bread Guy]

... I wouldn't underestimate the thugs who helped out early against the eastern separatists, then got disbanded and/or absorbed into the UKR military because ... who wants political or oligarch-linked militias, right?

Hints that some of those paramilitary types are being found useful -- the former head of a hard-right-wing paramilitary group has been appointed as a special advisor to UKR's CinC. More on Right Sector here (and an American-fighting-in-Ukraine connection here).

 

[MilEME09]

Hints that some of those paramilitary types are being found useful -- the former head of a hard-right-wing paramilitary group has been appointed as a special advisor to UKR's CinC. More on Right Sector here (and an American-fighting-in-Ukraine connection here).

Part of the reason Russia is trying so hard to discredit these groups, they are so due hard nationalists, they aren't being bought off by Russian agents. Corruption is still riff in the Ukrainian armed forces and government. If they can't stop officers from selling troop movements and battle plans, they will always fail.

 

[The Bread Guy]

So, how'd the call go?

From Biden's info-machine take

... The tone of the conversation between the two presidents was serious and substantive. They each framed their positions as they’ve done in previous calls and also as they have done publicly.

President Biden laid out two paths, two aspects of the U.S. approach that will really depend on Russia’s actions in the period ahead. One is a path of diplomacy leading toward a de-escalation of the situation, and the other is a path that’s more focused on deterrence, including serious costs and consequences should Russia choose to proceed with a further invasion of Ukraine. And those costs include economic costs, include adjustments and augmentations of NATO force posture in Allied countries, and include additional assistance to Ukraine to enable it to further defend itself and its territory, as we’ve laid out previously ....

From Putin's info-machine take (links to archived version of official English statement)

... Vladimir Putin detailed the fundamental approaches underlying the Russian drafts of the Treaty between the Russian Federation and the United States of America and the Agreement between the Russian Federation and the member states of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation. He stressed that the negotiations needed to produce solid legally binding guarantees ruling out NATO’s eastward expansion and the deployment of weapons that threaten Russia in the immediate vicinity of its borders.

(...)

Vladimir Putin gave an exhaustive response to the mention once again by Joseph Biden of the possibility of imposing “large-scale” sanctions in the event of an escalation of the situation around Ukraine. He suggested that this would be a grave error, de facto fraught with the danger of a complete breakdown in Russia-US relations ...

 

[The Bread Guy]

Part of the reason Russia is trying so hard to discredit these groups, they are so due hard nationalists, they aren't being bought off by Russian agents.

Then again, some of these guys (or at least a certain percentage of them) can serve as their own worst enemies, only needing a bit of poking as needed.

There's also a bit of ... synergy between at least some Ukraininan nationalists and Russian nationalists, so it can be a murky situation.

Not to mention a few of their ilk "slipping through" to get trained by NATO forces (more on that from September 2021 here), too.

Corruption is still riff in the Ukrainian armed forces and government. If they can't stop officers from selling troop movements and battle plans, they will always fail.

No denying that ....

 

[MilEME09]

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In related news, the leader of Finlands opposition and atleast one senior person in the ruling coalition say it is time for Finland to apply for NATO membership.

If Finland joins NATO, our northern flank will become much larger, but Finland also has a credible military, and would give us the ability to lock down the Baltic fleet in St.petersburg.

 

[The Bread Guy]

... If Finland joins NATO, our northern flank will become much larger, but Finland also has a credible military, and would give us the ability to lock down the Baltic fleet in St.petersburg.

And comes with a history of making the Soviets pay dearly for poking them, even if the Finns ended up losing ground.

 

[Good2Golf]

…and would give us the ability to lock down the Baltic fleet in St.petersburg.

…an added bonus to bringing in a 2.15% GDP defense spender investor into NATO.

 

[daftandbarmy]

And comes with a history of making the Soviets pay dearly for poking them, even if the Finns ended up losing ground.

They also come with a significant reliance on Russian energy imports:

"Finland is heavily dependent on energy imports (65% of primary energy is imported). Russia represented 63 % of the total value (in EURs) of energy imports in 2016 with particularly high shares of fossil fuel imports from Russia. The next largest import sources to Finland are Nordic countries (Sweden 18% and Norway 4%)."

https://tietokayttoon.fi/documents/1927382/2116852/5_2018_Finland's+security+of+supply+and+Russia%E2%80%99s+ability+to+influence+through+energy+under+energy+transition/84657180-68de-49c8-9fd9-d964d82ff7c3/5_2018_Finland's+security+of+supply+and+Russia%E2%80%99s+ability+to+influence+through+energy+under+energy+transition.pdf

 

[FJAG]

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News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication

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In related news, the leader of Finlands opposition and atleast one senior person in the ruling coalition say it is time for Finland to apply for NATO membership.

If Finland joins NATO, our northern flank will become much larger, but Finland also has a credible military, and would give us the ability to lock down the Baltic fleet in St.petersburg.

Just what NATO needs. Another reason for Russia to become even more paranoid.

 

[MilEME09]

Just what NATO needs. Another reason for Russia to become even more paranoid.

Gives the northern military district something to do

 

[Weinie]

Just what NATO needs. Another reason for Russia to become even more paranoid.

Or perhaps Russia could decide that their current demands are untenable, and even non-NATO countries are saying so.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Or perhaps Russia could decide that their current demands are untenable, and even non-NATO countries are saying so.

Never say never, but if there's face to be lost, I don't see Russia backing down soon.

Meanwhile, how'd the latest chat between bosses go? Whitehouse info-machine ....

President Joseph R. Biden, Jr. spoke today (2 Jan) with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine. President Biden made clear that the United States and its allies and partners will respond decisively if Russia further invades Ukraine. The leaders expressed support for diplomatic efforts, starting next week with the bilateral Strategic Stability Dialogue, at NATO through the NATO-Russia Council, and at the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. President Biden underscored the commitment of the United States and its allies and partners to the principle of “nothing about you without you.” He reaffirmed the United States’ commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. He also expressed support for confidence-building measures to de-escalate tensions in Donbas and active diplomacy to advance the implementation of the Minsk Agreements, in support of the Normandy Format.

... vs UKR President's info-machine (my pers fave verb of the day: de-oligarchization)

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy had the third in the recent period telephone conversation with U.S. President Joseph Biden, which lasted more than an hour and a half.

The key topic of the talks is the situation in the east and near the borders of our state. Zelenskyy praised the active role of the United States in its settlement, noting the importance of international legal steps planned for January 2022.

"I appreciate the support of the United States for our proposal to hold a meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Commission in the coming days," the Ukrainian head of state said.

He expressed gratitude for the U.S. President's support for the principle of "nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine," as well as for the readiness of the United States to take decisive action if Russia's aggression against our state escalates.

The parties discussed the steps Ukraine is taking within the Minsk and Normandy formats, and stressed the importance of further diplomatic efforts.

"Today, it is about the future not only of Ukraine, but it is also about European security and world order based on rules and democratic values," Zelenskyy said.

The two leaders also discussed economic and energy security challenges. The President of Ukraine informed Biden about the progress of economic reforms in our country and the steps taken to strengthen stability and de-oligarchization.

During the talks the United States' continued support for Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity and its European integration aspirations was reiterated.

Meanwhile, another reason for Belarus to be pissed at Ukraine (links to archived version of BLR state media article - full text also attached if link doesn't work) ...

The Belarusian Embassy has expressed a strong protest in connection with the growing radicalization of the anti-Belarusian position of Ukraine, reads a statement posted on the website of the Belarusian diplomatic mission, BelTA has learned.

"The Belarusian Embassy in Ukraine sent a note to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine condemning mass participation of activists of the self-exiled Belarusian extremist opposition under the flags of Belarusian collaborators and Third Reich puppets in a nationalist march held in Kiev on 1 January with the tacit acceptance of the Ukrainian authorities, and with wide coverage in the Ukrainian media, including national TV," the diplomatic mission said ...

 

[MilEME09]

The funny thing is, the more Russia pushes, the more Finland, sweaden , and others may want to join NATO.

 

[Weinie]

Never say never, but if there's face to be lost, I don't see Russia backing down soon.

Meanwhile, how'd the latest chat between bosses go? Whitehouse info-machine ....

... vs UKR President's info-machine (my pers fave verb of the day: de-oligarchization)

Meanwhile, another reason for Belarus to be pissed at Ukraine (links to archived version of BLR state media article - full text also attached if link doesn't work) ...

Yeah, get that. But if we don’t want another “there will be peace in our time” moment, the world has to step up.

 

[Altair]

Yeah, get that. But if we don’t want another “there will be peace in our time” moment, the world has to step up.