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Ukraine - Superthread

The Bread Guy

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Interesting tidbit from a fact-checking service working in the same offices as US-government funded Voice of America ....
During a visit to Kyiv, where Ukrainian leaders worry about a possible full-scale Russian invasion, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock echoed German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s position on Ukraine’s requests to buy arms.

“Our restrictive position to weapons supply is well-known and is rooted in history,” she said.

(...)

But that’s misleading.

Baerbock may represent the new ruling coalition that opposes arms sales to countries outside the EU and NATO, but as it stands Germany is ranked the fourth-largest global arms exporter, and the recipients of these arms are not limited to NATO allies or democratic governments ...
Would it be ... indelicate to remind Germany about how ... non-restrictive weapons supply policy re: Ukraine was during WW2? 😉

A bit more nuance from Germany's public broadcaster ...
... Both the United States and the United Kingdom have announced arms deliveries, mostly handguns, ammunition and anti-tank weapons. A group of US senators visiting Ukraine earlier this week promised more weapons would be on the way.

German government officials have expressed concern that such deliveries could push tensions higher and make negotiations more difficult.

In their coalition agreement, the center-left SPD, the Greens and the neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP) agreed on a restrictive arms export policy that does not allow any weapons deliveries to crisis regions.

Baerbock said her government's decision on weapons had a historical dimension — a reference to Germany's invasion of the Soviet Union during the Second World War.

"The idea that Germany delivers weapons that could then be used to kill Russians is very difficult to stomach for many Germans," Marcel Dirsus, a nonresident fellow at the Institute for Security Policy at Kiel University (ISPK), told DW ....
Interesting take on the WW2 history angle from Ukraine from this piece ...
... Ukraine is also a buyer. In 2020 and through the first half of 2021, Germany approved 97 exports totaling 5.2 million euros ($5.8 million), according to government reporting. These were mostly sidearms, diving equipment, and communications devices.

Ukrainian officials want to go bigger, most recently asking for warships and air defense systems. While Germany often cites its own belligerent history as grounds for sidestepping the military question, Ukraine is leaning into it.

"This responsibility should apply to the Ukrainian people, who lost at least 8 million lives during the Nazi occupation of Ukraine," Ukraine's ambassador to Germany, Andrij Melnyk, told the DPA news agency ...
 

brihard

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If the US orders all US banks and extends that to include all world-wide banks that deal with US banks, to stop processing payments in USD to any Russian entity, then Russia is effectively shut out of the world wide banking system.

This is what they've done to Iran. There are ways around it, but its extremely difficult and time consuming.

A number of years back the US implemented something called FATCA and basically forced all governments (banks) that deal with US banks to enforce this US led tax imitative. We here in Canada were forced to do so, but only after an 'agreement' came into place that all US banks had to identify and report to the CRA all known Canadians who had bank/investments accounts in the US, just like all CDN banks were forced to report all known Americans living in Canada (outside Canada but had bank accounts or investment accounts here) to the IRA. Each year all CDN banks/investment firms (and yes, it include Mutual Fund companies and things like RESP and TFSA) send their lists of 'US Persons' to the CRA who in turn turn it all over to the IRS. This includes any/all dual Citizenships or anyone who was born in the US here in Canada - in essence about 1 million CDN's a year.

Back to SWIFT, if the US goes down this path it can/will cripple the Russian economy. All that nat gas that goes to Europe, guess what, the Russians won't get paid for it, the Euro's freeze and the gas gets turned off.
Before you get excited you need to reread the last three paras of my post, carefully. The US only retains this power as long as it’s in everyone else’s interest to go along with it. A trade bloc denominating commodities trading in a currency other than $USDis probably inevitable, but it’s not in America’s interest to speed that up.
 

YZT580

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Before you get excited you need to reread the last three paras of my post, carefully. The US only retains this power as long as it’s in everyone else’s interest to go along with it. A trade bloc denominating commodities trading in a currency other than $USDis probably inevitable, but it’s not in America’s interest to speed that up.
many thanks for the explanation
 

Kirkhill

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RAF heading home after dropping off another load. These guys are sending alot over the last week.


That flight path is interesting for a cargo flight. They seemed to spend a lot of time "dragging their petticoats" just off Russian held territory on the Black Sea.

The same kind of path the Type 45s followed when the QE was in the Med.

HIt me if your dare?
 

Kirkhill

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Except they are likely stripping their own cupboard bare to do it.

NLAW / MBT LAW is manufactured in Britain by Thales UK.

It was taken into service in 2009. It is a wooden round with a 20 year shelf life. The first rounds manufactured would be 12 years old now. They are ripe for divestment in any event.

And now would be a good time to refresh the inventory with Foreign Aid money.
 

MilEME09

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NLAW / MBT LAW is manufactured in Britain by Thales UK.

It was taken into service in 2009. It is a wooden round with a 20 year shelf life. The first rounds manufactured would be 12 years old now. They are ripe for divestment in any event.

And now would be a good time to refresh the inventory with Foreign Aid money.
Exactly, drop the old inventory to Ukraine, refresh your own. Wouldn't be surprised if we did the same with M72s.
 

Colin Parkinson

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I also would not be surprised if Putin plays this game several times, gauging reactions and waiting for the time that there is only limited reaction to act.
 

Kirkhill

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Exactly, drop the old inventory to Ukraine, refresh your own. Wouldn't be surprised if we did the same with M72s.

For the record - the UK also manufactures the following missiles.

Brimstone
SPEAR
Sea SPEAR

Starstreak
Martlet


Some of them have variants that need a workout on a two-way range. Good for the engineering and the marketing departments.
 

Kirkhill

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Czech_pivo

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Before you get excited you need to reread the last three paras of my post, carefully. The US only retains this power as long as it’s in everyone else’s interest to go along with it. A trade bloc denominating commodities trading in a currency other than $USDis probably inevitable, but it’s not in America’s interest to speed that up.
Good luck to the Chinese (or Russians) in convincing the rest of the world to start a new trading currency for commodities. They routinely manipulate their currency, resulting in their currency being vastly undervalued against the USD. This is done to ensure that their products/manufacturing are continuously priced low. China has no floating exchange rate.
The IMF and World Bank are still dominated by the Euros and the Americans, until the link is broken and broken consistently, China (and Russia) will have little luck in moving forward with any of their goals.
If you think that the developed countries of the world would be willing to 'leave' the USD and move over to trading in currency of a Communist country, good luck.
No one knows what the future may bring in 10, 25, 50 years. But a world dominated by a repressive Communist country called China has little chance of occurring. There are too many in the US (and the west?) that would rather 'end it all' than have the 'barbarians sack DC'.
 

blacktriangle

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That flight path is interesting for a cargo flight. They seemed to spend a lot of time "dragging their petticoats" just off Russian held territory on the Black Sea.

The same kind of path the Type 45s followed when the QE was in the Med.

HIt me if your dare?
Not a cargo flight.
 

daftandbarmy

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Not a cargo flight.


Keep Going Jimmy Fallon GIF by The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon
 

AmmoTech90

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I've had to work with the flight planners to route planes around countries that don't allow DG over flight, not too uncommon.

As far as the AT weapons go, they could be shipping off NLAW as that is their current disposable AT weapon- pretty pricey though and 8 years of shelf life is an eternity especially as they can usually be extended, see ADATS (don't mind Eryx off in the corner cracking open launch motors). They might also have a bunch of M72 Anti-structure munitions from Afghanistan left over that for ease of explaining to media they called AT weapons, they look like a HEAT M72 from outside, except for the black tube...which according to NATO colour coding is armour defeating, but not in this case.
 

Kirkhill

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I've had to work with the flight planners to route planes around countries that don't allow DG over flight, not too uncommon.

As far as the AT weapons go, they could be shipping off NLAW as that is their current disposable AT weapon- pretty pricey though and 8 years of shelf life is an eternity especially as they can usually be extended, see ADATS (don't mind Eryx off in the corner cracking open launch motors). They might also have a bunch of M72 Anti-structure munitions from Afghanistan left over that for ease of explaining to media they called AT weapons, they look like a HEAT M72 from outside, except for the black tube...which according to NATO colour coding is armour defeating, but not in this case.

I can't create an image of the flight path but it doesn't look like it was making any attempt to avoid "enemy" airspace. It looked more as if it was keeping just outside the 12 mile limit of the Crimea and the Russian coast. With a couple of interesting circuits thrown in for good measure.

I think Black Triangle is on to something.
 

Altair

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Good luck to the Chinese (or Russians) in convincing the rest of the world to start a new trading currency for commodities. They routinely manipulate their currency, resulting in their currency being vastly undervalued against the USD. This is done to ensure that their products/manufacturing are continuously priced low. China has no floating exchange rate.
The IMF and World Bank are still dominated by the Euros and the Americans, until the link is broken and broken consistently, China (and Russia) will have little luck in moving forward with any of their goals.
If you think that the developed countries of the world would be willing to 'leave' the USD and move over to trading in currency of a Communist country, good luck.
No one knows what the future may bring in 10, 25, 50 years. But a world dominated by a repressive Communist country called China has little chance of occurring. There are too many in the US (and the west?) that would rather 'end it all' than have the 'barbarians sack DC'.
What is to stop the Europeans and Russians from switching to Euros?
 

Czech_pivo

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What is to stop the Europeans and Russians from switching to Euros?
Switching what?
The EU won't be moving away from the relationship that they already have with all trading models. Please don't try to suggest that the EU will be breaking with the US and jumping into bed with the Russians on trading or any other issues.
If the US ever decided to move out of Europe (of course they wouldn't leave the UK) and went back home, Putin would be moving into Europe within the month, don't ever forget that.
 

Altair

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Switching what?
The currency that commodities is traded in.
The EU won't be moving away from the relationship that they already have with all trading models. Please don't try to suggest that the EU will be breaking with the US and jumping into bed with the Russians on trading or any other issues.
The Europeans appear to be balking at the thought of banning the Russians from SWIFT, probably because they would freeze to death without Russian oil and gas.

In order to, you know, survive, instead of using USD for commodities trade Europe and Russia switch to Euros and the USA can't do a thing about it?

If the US ever decided to move out of Europe (of course they wouldn't leave the UK) and went back home, Putin would be moving into Europe within the month, don't ever forget that.
SWIFT isn't tied to NATO.
 

Czech_pivo

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The currency that commodities is traded in.

The Europeans appear to be balking at the thought of banning the Russians from SWIFT, probably because they would freeze to death without Russian oil and gas.

In order to, you know, survive, instead of using USD for commodities trade Europe and Russia switch to Euros and the USA can't do a thing about it?


SWIFT isn't tied to NATO.
Good luck.
 
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