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Ukraine - Superthread

daftandbarmy

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Yet still no movement of the eurocorp high readiness brigade, at this point I am suspecting because the germans are resisting any multilateral efforts involving their troops. Less the face Putin turning off the taps. We shall see how this plays our in Germany next election cycle, a soft hand during this crisis could handled Germany over to more nationalist parties on the right.

Probably less about turning off the taps than being seen to incite a conflict that jacks up the price. The price of oil is at historic highs and could crush a few fragile economies.

If Russia kicks it off on their own, without the Euro-trash mobilizing to incite it, at least they can mollify their electorates by blaming Putin as the bad guy.

#realeoilpolitik



Russia-Ukraine crisis could spark a surge in Europe’s gas prices, topping last year’s highs​


  • If the Russia-Ukraine crisis escalates, gas prices in Europe – which soared to highs last year – could surge further, research firm Capital Economics said in a note over the weekend.
  • “It’s a very tight gas market ... and there’s no question that this sense of imminent crisis building with Russia and Ukraine is also hanging over the market, particularly since Russia does provide about 35% of Europe’s gas,” energy expert Dan Yergin told CNBC on Monday.
  • A massive gas crunch in Europe last year led to European power prices spiraling to multi-year highs.
  • As it is, gas supplies from Russia were already lower than usual, Jefferies pointed out in a note on Sunday.

 

MilEME09

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It's curious the west is only sending AT weapons, no AA, wonder if intel suggests the Russian airforce won't play a big part
 

Czech_pivo

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It's curious the west is only sending AT weapons, no AA, wonder if intel suggests the Russian airforce won't play a big part
Maybe its a question of what we know vs what we don't know.
We know that they have had a couple of thousand AT weapons given to them over the short term recently. What we don't know is if they've been given a few hundred stingers or equivalents as well.
 

Czech_pivo

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this is a nice article on some of the financial repercussions
I was sometimes was confused if this article was about Canada or Russia.
Some examples:

"economy is.....concentrated in a few regions and conglomerates, heavily dependent on technology imports....'
"Low growth and high inflation have severely affected Russian Canadian living standards...."
"notorious inefficiency of state-owned enterprises..."
"calculated that Russian Canadian energy companies relied on imports for over half of all basic drilling equipment and more than 90% of hydraulic fracturing and offshore drilling technology."
"China American reneged on financing allowing new oil and gas pipelines..."


Here's a nod to Altair and how successful alternative to SWIFT that Russia/China -

Despite repeated agreements to use national currencies in mutual trade, dollars and euros continue to dominate. While one Chinese bank has joined Russia’s alternative to the SWIFT payments system, no others have followed. Just 23 foreign banks have signed up, but only 12 use the system. China’s alternative has about four times the number of members. Yet in 2021, Chinese bank usage of SWIFT reached its highest level since 2015.
 

The Bread Guy

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It's an interesting position for the 4th largest and somewhat selective arms exporter in the world.
Yeah ...
Germany is blocking North Atlantic Treaty Organization ally Estonia from giving military support to Ukraine by refusing to issue permits for German-origin weapons to be exported to Kyiv as it braces for a potential Russian invasion.

Unlike the U.S., Britain, Poland and other allies, the German government has declined to export lethal weapons directly to Ukraine.

In the case of Estonia, a small country on Russia’s northern border, Berlin is also refusing to allow a third country to send artillery to Ukraine because the weaponry originated in Germany, according to Estonian and German officials ...
More here
 

The Bread Guy

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What the bad guys say Ukraine is up to (links to archived version of article in Russian - translation below via Google Translate)
Statement by the NM DPR on the preparation of Ukraine for an offensive in the Donbass

The command of the People's Militia of the DPR records the preparation of units of the armed formations of Ukraine to unleash active hostilities in the Donbass.

The folding situation is formed on the basis of the following intelligence information:

- at the railway station of the settlement of Krasnoarmeysk (Ukr. Pokrovsk), six Smerch multiple rocket launchers and two Uragan MLRS with cluster munitions were unloaded;

- the last two weeks, the arrival in the zone of the so-called "operation of the joint forces" (in the areas of the settlements of Shumy, Marinka, Taramchuk and Chermalyk) of the nationalist units of the Right Sector DUK, as well as snipers from the 74th reconnaissance battalion and the special forces of the SBU " Alpha". Along the entire line of contact, an increase in enemy reconnaissance activities using unmanned aerial vehicles is recorded;

- active replenishment of ammunition is being carried out at field artillery depots in the JFO zone, an active supply of various ammunition to a depot near the Dobropolye settlement was noted;

- at the Anadol training ground, on the basis of the 25th brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, enhanced training of the RCBZ units is being carried out, in connection with which there is still a possibility of provocations by the enemy using chemicals that were delivered to the settlements of Avdiivka and Krasny Liman at the end of 2021.

Also recently, NATO countries have been actively transferring various weapons and military equipment to the territory of Ukraine. In the past few days alone, 9 C-17 aircraft have arrived from the UK, delivering more than 460 tons of various lethal weapons, including about 2,000 NLAW anti-tank grenade launchers.

NATO countries have repeatedly stated that all the weapons supplied to Ukraine are not intended for use in the so-called "Joint Forces Operation" zone. At the same time, intelligence of the People's Militia of the DPR received reliable information about the arrival in the JFO zone of a large batch of NLAW anti-tank grenade launchers intended to equip military units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine located on the line of contact.

According to the information we have, these anti-tank weapons will be used by assault groups of the 25th and 95th airborne brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the so-called national battalions in the course of hostilities to seize the settlements of the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics.

Previously, British military instructors had already prepared calculations for the use of these anti-tank grenade launchers. Their training took place at the 199th training center of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Zhytomyr region.

The transfer of NLAW anti-tank grenade launchers and other lethal weapons by the Ukrainian military command, the arrival of nationalist battalions to the line of contact once again confirms the fact that the Ukrainian army is preparing for active hostilities in the Donbass.

We call on Western countries to stop supplying Ukraine with lethal weapons and force the Kiev authorities to comply with the Minsk package.

Deputy Head of the People's Militia Department of the DPR, Colonel Eduard Basurin
Statement in Russian also attached
 

Attachments

  • dan-news.info-Заявление НМ ДНР о подготовке Украины к наступлению в Донбассе - Официальная инф...pdf
    60.6 KB · Views: 1

suffolkowner

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a couple articles from the drive


are all these ships going to be able to enter the Black Sea? How does Turkey and the Montreux Convention impact this?



So it looks like some of the helicopters are already in Ukraine for maintenance, every little bit helps

What Ukraine really needs is greater air defence and fighters. I wonder if there is an appetite from some NATO members to provide air support or failing that to transfer some common fighters to Ukraine as they transition to F-16's?

Mig-29Mig 21Su-22Su-24Su-25
Poland2318
Slovakia10
Bulgaria118
Romania24

I'm not sure if Ukraine would have use for Mig-21's or Su-22's but they already have Su-25's and Mig-29's. The 44 Mig-29's could easily be made up by NATO rotations
 

Czech_pivo

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a couple articles from the drive


are all these ships going to be able to enter the Black Sea? How does Turkey and the Montreux Convention impact this?



So it looks like some of the helicopters are already in Ukraine for maintenance, every little bit helps

What Ukraine really needs is greater air defence and fighters. I wonder if there is an appetite from some NATO members to provide air support or failing that to transfer some common fighters to Ukraine as they transition to F-16's?

Mig-29Mig 21Su-22Su-24Su-25
Poland2318
Slovakia10
Bulgaria118
Romania24

I'm not sure if Ukraine would have use for Mig-21's or Su-22's but they already have Su-25's and Mig-29's. The 44 Mig-29's could easily be made up by NATO rotations
Add in a French frigate, a Spanish frigate and a patrol ship and HMCS Montreal to that list in the Black Sea. Plus, Romanian and Bulgarian naval vessels. Turkish as well but I doubt they will move to Odessa area in support.
 

Jarnhamar

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Yes, but that was Nazi Germany.
It's possible Germany doesn't trust Bidens USA to have their back so they're trying to buy off Russia. Seems weird that Germany would be so out of step with the US and UK. They're even blocking other countries from helping.

Command and Conquer didn't see this coming.
 
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