And in the What's New department the Grits must be swooning over their prospects with
a the new leader. This story from the National Post site is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provision of the Copyright Act.
With Justin Trudeau as their leader, Liberals could easily win federal election: exclusive poll
Kathryn Blaze Carlson | Sep 27, 2012 1:36 PM ET
Justin Trudeau has not even formally announced his bid for the Liberal leadership, and already a poll suggests he would lead his party to power if an election were held today with him at the helm.
News broke on Wednesday that Mr. Trudeau will announce a run next Tuesday for the party’s top job when they pick a leader next April to replace interim head Bob Rae. Just hours later, Forum Research had sussed out whether his leadership could be a game-changer for the third-place party.
In an exclusive poll conducted for the National Post, Forum found if Mr. Trudeau were leader of the Liberal Party and an election were held today, the Grits would win, handily, with 39% of the popular vote.
Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s Conservatives would come in second, with 32% of the vote, and the NDP — today the Official Opposition and led by Thomas Mulcair — would return to third-party status, with just 20% of the vote.
“The real news here is that Justin Trudeau as Liberal leader has the effect of taking all the wind out of the NDP’s sails,” said Lorne Bozinoff, Forum Research’s president, of the 14% bump Mr. Trudeau would lend the Liberals.
Mr. Trudeau refused to answer questions from reporters on Parliament Hill on Wednesday, saying “I have nothing to announce today,” but the Quebec MP will reportedly announce his leadership intentions in his home riding of Papineau on Oct. 2 — the birthday of his youngest brother, Michel, who died 14 years ago in a B.C. avalanche.
As the son of Pierre Elliott Trudeau, one of Canada’s most contentious prime ministers, some onlookers are already questioning whether the young Trudeau, at age 40, can overcome his father’s legacy in the west and among some francophones in Quebec. Still, with the unofficial news of his bid, he is far-and-away considered the frontrunner with a massive lead.
Mr. Trudeau, who famously fought and beat Conservative Senator Patrick Brazeau in a charity boxing match earlier this year, is already a huge draw for Liberal events and fundraisers. Plus, he has a massive following on social media sites like Twitter, where he boasts 150, 993 followers — second only in number of followers among Canadian politicians to Mr. Harper, according to Politwitter.ca.
Even without the Trudeau factor, the poll found that while Mr. Mulcair has the highest net favourability rating of the three leaders, the NDP is losing some momentum, with some of its support shifting to the Liberals: If an election were held today, the NDP would win the Official Opposition spot with 30% of the vote, down from 34% when Canadians were asked about party preference on Aug. 22; the Liberals under Mr. Rae, meantime, would win 25% of the vote, up three points from last month’s poll.
“It appears the NDP surge we were tracking has subsided somewhat, and voters are more comfortable with the Prime Minister than they have been in the past,” Mr. Bozinoff said.
The poll, a telephone survey of 1,707 randomly selected Canadian adults taken on Sept. 26, is accurate +/-2%, 19 times out of 20.