# Is the CPC about to split



## Remius (23 Aug 2018)

I figured we could start a topic with what has been going on with Maxime Bernier. 

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/conservative-bernier-caucus-scheer-1.4795623

It seems he will be making a statement at 13:00 today. 

More and more I think we are going to see a split of the CPC.  I would not be surprised if Mr. Bernier splits from the party to form his own. 

If that should happen the conservatives would likely go through what they did in the 90's and the liberals will be in power for a long time again. 

Still early but I think Bernier doesn't care and will go his own way.  I'd be curious to see who might follow him.

The Washington post also commented on the current "melt down". 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/global-opinions/wp/2018/08/18/canadas-conservatives-are-having-a-mini-meltdown/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.f6aa3c11e9e4


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## Colin Parkinson (23 Aug 2018)

A split may not hurt to much if they are careful not to compete to much against each other.


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## Halifax Tar (23 Aug 2018)

Could this be a still festering infected wound from the PC and Reform Party merger years ago ? 

One was more centre right than the other...


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## McG (23 Aug 2018)

A split would be good for them.  They currently represent too broad a swath of the political spectrum, and voters are leery about what they are getting in any given candidate.  But ...



			
				Colin P said:
			
		

> A split may not hurt to much if they are careful not to compete to much against each other.


A split and a detent could hurt both parties is voters see it as a façade for one still big party pretending to be two.  Healthy democracy should not require that we limit voter choice in any given riding to prevent a minority opinion from winning.  A better option for voters and for a split CPC would have been ranked ballots.


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## QV (23 Aug 2018)

Colin P said:
			
		

> A split may not hurt to much if they are careful not to compete to much against each other.



I disagree.  A divided conservative party will ensure a liberal government.  Look at what happened in Alberta.


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## Remius (23 Aug 2018)

QV said:
			
		

> I disagree.  A divided conservative party will ensure a liberal government.  Look at what happened in Alberta.



I'm of that thought as well. 

Stephen Harper had the ability and strength to keep it together.  I'm not sure that Scheer does.  In fact I'm pretty sure he doesn't.


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## brihard (23 Aug 2018)

I don’t think we would see a party split. That would collapse the CPC, and would lock things in for the liberals for a considerable time.

Bernier is their most high profile Quebec member, and it looks like he’s out of the family, so they have problems. *However*, the Liberals have a serious uphill battle in Quebec, and a lot of their struggles align with Bernier’s sentiments. The Conservatives are going to need a new Quebec face or two who can bring feet to fire on some of the _concerns_ underlying Bernier’s grandstanding, but do so in a way that stays issues-based and doesn’t put the CPC in too bad a light with centrist voters in terms of perceptions of xenophobia and bigotry. It will be a difficult balancing game. With the huge struggles the Liberals are facing in Quebec, room does exist to pull it off.


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## Remius (23 Aug 2018)

Talk radio this morning has an informal poll asking people what they think will happen.

1. Bernier leaves and forms his party.
2. Bernier leaves and runs provincially with the CAQ
3. Bernier makes a formal challenge to Scheer within the party
4. Nothing happens.

If 1 happens.  Does he also drag some current MPs with him?
If 2 happens then the CAQ will have a star candidate
If 3 happens it could be civil war within the party
If 4 happens, I'll have a coke.


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## brihard (23 Aug 2018)

What, precisely, is a ‘formal challenge to Scheer within his own party’? Bernier already did that through the mechanism of the leadership convention, and he lost. I think in about ten minutes we’re going to see Bernier trot out a cricket bat in anticipation of the grenade rolling his way from the party leadership. It shall be interesting.


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## Remius (23 Aug 2018)

No clue.  just what I heard on the radio.

CTV is stoking the own party thing with an interesting ally...(Marcel Masse)

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/maxime-bernier-announcement-sparks-rumour-he-ll-start-own-party-1.4064855


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## Remius (23 Aug 2018)

Well, looks like he's forming his own party.

Bob Fife, althea Raj etc all reporting on their twitter feeds...


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## Remius (23 Aug 2018)

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-maxime-bernier-to-make-announcement-ahead-of-conservative-convention/

In particular is this:  

“I have come to realize over the past year that this party is too intellectually and morally corrupt to be reformed,” Mr. Bernier told reporters in Ottawa on Thursday.

"The Conservative Party has abandoned conservatives. It does not represent them anymore. And it has nothing of substance to offer Canadians looking for a political alternative."

Now comes the speculation of what happens next.  Will some people flock to him?  He did get 49% of the party vote.  many conservatives agree with his stance on supply management and he might appeal to French Quebecers.


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## brihard (23 Aug 2018)

If he splits off and starts a new right wing party, then he hands the next election to Trudeau. Quite the tantrum.


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## Remius (23 Aug 2018)

Brihard said:
			
		

> If he splits off and starts a new right wing party, then he hands the next election to Trudeau. Quite the tantrum.



Yep.  We might as well call it now. 

Congrats to Trudeau and the LPC.  Scheer is finished.  If not now then soon.  :not-again:


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## Remius (23 Aug 2018)

More war gaming here. 

Back in February, Bernier courted the 7 bloc members who resigned from that party to join the CPC.  If he manages to get them on board with his new party, he would only be 4 members short of official party status.  And he might already have a few people.  

Just musing here...


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## Lumber (23 Aug 2018)

Remius said:
			
		

> More war gaming here.
> 
> Back in February, Bernier courted the 7 bloc members who resigned from that party to join the CPC.  If he manages to get them on board with his new party, he would only be 4 members short of official party status.  And he might already have a few people.
> 
> Just musing here...



Legitimately curious here (as I don't delve too deeply into the specifics of the CPC), but what would a "Bernier" party look compared to the present CPC?

Would it be more right wing, more center, or neither, but just having different priorities?


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## Underway (23 Aug 2018)

Remius said:
			
		

> https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-maxime-bernier-to-make-announcement-ahead-of-conservative-convention/
> 
> In particular is this:
> 
> ...



Depending on how things work out this may very well guarantee a liberal victory in the next election.  I remember well the Reform days where Chretien won handily because of the split in the right vote.  Combined with the current collapse of the NDP federally it's going to be a cakewalk for JT.   Of course all this changes with an election and "events".



			
				Lumber said:
			
		

> Legitimately curious here (as I don't delve too deeply into the specifics of the CPC), but what would a "Bernier" party look compared to the present CPC?
> 
> Would it be more right wing, more center, or neither, but just having different priorities?



Less authoritarian and more libertarian.  He's by far the most libertarian of Conservatives that speak publicly.

Edit:  After some more thought this might be good for the Conservative party as well.  The Liberals often win by stealing the "best" ideas from the NDP.  It's a constant NDP complaint.  Having a smaller party (if they even can get up and running) to trail run more controversial policies without worrying about it yourself ...


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## Colin Parkinson (23 Aug 2018)

Depends, if they don't bother running candidates in the same riding's, then the effect is minimal. Hopefully they put their ego's aside and look as to where a Max candidate will do well or a Scheer one. A conservative version of Hashtag#AnyonebutJT


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## a_majoor (23 Aug 2018)

A "Bernier" party, at least so long as it follows the leaders own political convictions would be a small "l" Libertarian party.

The issue of splitting parties and votes for the benefit of the LPC is a real one, but on the other hand the CPC is currently in the same situation the PCPO was between 2002 and the election of Doug Ford. They don't seem to have the intellectual horsepower to deliver different or out of the box solutions to the problems of the day, lack effective messaging and their leadership can't even challenge in terms of personality or charisma.

The primary reason I supported Doug Ford wasn't because I think he's an exemplary guy, but rather the PCPO needed a massive shakeup (and this would have been true even if they lost). I believe the same is needed inside the CPC, and until they get out of their "liberal lite" mode, voters will not see any real reason to switch unless PMJT trips rather dramatically over his colourful socks and it can no longer be ignored/handwaved by the media.

 A "Bernier" party _may_ be able to bring a lot fo followers of the Reform Party back into the fold, but as a practical matter, they will not have the organizational horsepower or resources to really do more than act as challengers or spoilers. Given that in 2019 the Liberals are going to run against Donald Trump, and indications are most Canadian political parties will follow suit, there is some room to advance different political views and ideas for  a "Bernier" party. How well that will work is another story.


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## Fishbone Jones (23 Aug 2018)

Lumber said:
			
		

> Legitimately curious here (as I don't delve too deeply into the specifics of the CPC), but what would a "Bernier" party look compared to the present CPC?
> 
> Would it be more right wing, more center, or neither, but just having different priorities?



Big unknown. You can speculate based on their personality but I think it's best to wait for their platform. Which should be forthcoming shortly.

This could be the trigger for a snap election. Do it while the opposition is in disarray.


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## Remius (23 Aug 2018)

Lumber said:
			
		

> Legitimately curious here (as I don't delve too deeply into the specifics of the CPC), but what would a "Bernier" party look compared to the present CPC?
> 
> Would it be more right wing, more center, or neither, but just having different priorities?



What Underway said.

More Libertarian.

So feel free to read this interview he gave a Muslim group while he was running for leader.  It's a actually pretty good and a good outline of his policies.

https://www.canadianmuslimvote.ca/cpc_interview_series_maxime_bernier

There is a lot that Conservatives can get behind if his new party adopts some of these policies.


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## Remius (23 Aug 2018)

recceguy said:
			
		

> Big unknown. You can speculate based on their personality but I think it's best to wait for their platform. Which should be forthcoming shortly.
> 
> This could be the trigger for a snap election. Do it while the opposition is in disarray.




Possibly but I think a snap election is not in the Liberal's best interest now.  Best to let Bernier settle and establish his party to create as much vote splitting as possible.

But I bet we see a platform soonish, it practically already exists.


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## Fishbone Jones (23 Aug 2018)

Remius said:
			
		

> Possibly but I think a snap election is not in the Liberal's best interest now.  Best to let Bernier settle and establish his party to create as much vote splitting as possible.
> 
> But I bet we see a platform soonish, it practically already exists.



Meh, at this point, it's a wait and see for me. I'm sure I'll only be waiting a couple of days at most. Or possibly Monday because of the way the media reports weekends. I can wait.

I set no timeline for a snap election.


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## QV (23 Aug 2018)

Remius said:
			
		

> More war gaming here.
> 
> Back in February, Bernier courted the 7 bloc members who resigned from that party to join the CPC.  If he manages to get them on board with his new party, he would only be 4 members short of official party status.  And he might already have a few people.
> 
> Just musing here...



I would think he already lined up significant support.  Almost like a coup 

I revise my previous assertion this will lead to a liberal government.  The more I think about it the more I think this is potentially a good move - if a large amount walk with him.


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## QV (23 Aug 2018)

If you want to see where your political beliefs are, this chart is neat.   

http://nolan.jimeyer.org/nolan_example.php


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## Brad Sallows (23 Aug 2018)

Here is another (probably the first), and here are some notes by the author (Jerry Pournelle).  And a critical commentary on both.


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## Fishbone Jones (23 Aug 2018)

Brihard said:
			
		

> If he splits off and starts a new right wing party, then he hands the next election to Trudeau. Quite the tantrum.



People said the same about Doug Ford. The only poll or opinion that matters is on election day. I'm not ready to call anyone a shoe in until I see what's going on. It's just to early to speculate.


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## brihard (23 Aug 2018)

recceguy said:
			
		

> People said the same about Doug Ford. The only poll or opinion that matters is on election day. I'm not ready to call anyone a shoe in until I see what's going on. It's just to early to speculate.



Ford did not create a new party and thus split the vote; he was succesfully able to market himself to the provincial Conservative party at large, and do while while approaching an election that was already basically theirs to win. Bernier, conversely, is looking to hive off some as yet undetermined portion of the CPC into his own party in the early stages of the run up to a federal election that has considerable potential to be a tight one. If he splits the right vote to any significant degree, Trudeau takes it.


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## daftandbarmy (23 Aug 2018)

Bernier's good as long as his hairdresser hangs in there...


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## Cloud Cover (24 Aug 2018)

That dude is an ultra marathoner. I wonder if *Just do it* will be his campaign slogan.


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## ballz (24 Aug 2018)

It's fun to speculate but I don't think anyone can guess the impact that this will or will not have. We'll need good hindsight goggles to understand all this after the election results are in. I can imagine it going so many ways and have no way to weigh the likelihood of any occurrence.

We don't even know how many candidates Max will be able to run. They acknowledged in the media today that Max's following is a very energized / active following. He may run 338 candidates as his Atlantic campaign manager posted on FB today. If he can do that, he may take a serious dent out the CPC's share of votes, maybe win 10-30 seats or something and take second in a lot of ridings. We would look at that and say "His successful first attempt has split the right and now JT has walked into another majority, but now he has a lot of momentum and the party has a future."

I could also see this being a complete flop. Having him out could help the CPC remain focussed/united. The Liberals remain a crap train until the election. The results come in and the Liberals are reduced to a minority, or even a CPC minority occurs, and Max fails to run a fully or nearly full slate, gets 2% of the popular vote, and is never taken seriously again.

Or a myriad of other things in between. Edit to Add: I should say that I don't think there will be any MPs leaving the CPC to join Bernier until after the next election.


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## Fishbone Jones (24 Aug 2018)

Another perchance/ perhaps. Maybe even if Trudeau slides up the middle, in will likely be a slim majority. Scheer and Bernier form a majority coalition, bring down the grits, take over and work out their differences that way. 

There a couple more, but I don't want to derail things too bad.


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## ballz (24 Aug 2018)

Chantal Hebert last night talked about how history repeats itself and stated: "People forget that Preston Manning didn't prevent Brian Mulroney from winning a majority government in 1988." What she was referring to was in 1988 when the Reform Party didn't win a single seat and Mulroney won a majority. In the next election (1993) they had a major breakthrough taking 52 seats and the PCs were decimated. She's a wise analyst and has me questioning my own perspective stated earlier that if Max doesn't have a great showing in 2019 he's finished.

If you go on Twitter there are tons of CPC members losing their s**t and saying they are quitting the party and joining Max after the CPC has deliberately shutdown debate / voting on supply management at the convention with some unpalatable antics.


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## daftandbarmy (24 Aug 2018)

ballz said:
			
		

> Chantal Hebert last night talked about how history repeats itself and stated: "People forget that Preston Manning didn't prevent Brian Mulroney from winning a majority government in 1988." What she was referring to was in 1988 when the Reform Party didn't win a single seat and Mulroney won a majority. In the next election (1993) they had a major breakthrough taking 52 seats and the PCs were decimated. She's a wise analyst and has me questioning my own perspective stated earlier that if Max doesn't have a great showing in 2019 he's finished.
> 
> If you go on Twitter there are tons of CPC members losing their s**t and saying they are quitting the party and joining Max after the CPC has deliberately shutdown debate / voting on supply management at the convention with some unpalatable antics.



Side track... I've seen Chantal in action during conferences etc and I'd vote for her as PM before any of those other ridiculous, mentally deficient show ponies  :nod:


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## Journeyman (25 Aug 2018)

ballz said:
			
		

> If you go on Twitter there are tons of CPC members losing their s**t and saying they are quitting the party and joining Max after the CPC has deliberately shutdown debate / voting on supply management at the convention with some unpalatable antics.


Reading through the overnight traffic, I also had to "  :not-again: " at the 'priority' issues that were deemed worthy of voting into policy.  Why are the Conservatives so insistent on catering to the extremes, essentially trying to out-Baptist the more knuckle-dragging American right.

There simply aren't enough Canadian voters holding views that far out there;  with Bernier splitting the right vote, with both apparently abandoning compromise and the more moderate, they're pretty much guaranteeing centrist voters will either go Liberal or simply throw up their hands and walk away, not voting at all.


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## Brad Sallows (25 Aug 2018)

This is a good test of Scheer's political mettle.  If he can hold the party together and prevent any significant amount of defections, he may have what it takes to win the next election.  If he can't, he should resign and the party should quickly find a leader who can knit things back together.


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## FJAG (25 Aug 2018)

Journeyman said:
			
		

> Reading through the overnight traffic, I also had to "  :not-again: " at the 'priority' issues that were deemed worthy of voting into policy.  Why are the Conservatives so insistent on catering to the extremes, essentially trying to out-Baptist the more knuckle-dragging American right.
> 
> There simply aren't enough Canadian voters holding views that far out there;  with Bernier splitting the right vote, with both apparently abandoning compromise and the more moderate, they're pretty much guaranteeing centrist voters will either go Liberal or simply throw up their hands and walk away, not voting at all.



I have the same fears based on what I've heard from the convention.

Approximately 77% of the public want abortion to be legal which IMHO means don't change the laws. Yet the CPC is allowing a motion for debate which would give the party the ability to enact abortion legislation. This is the thin edge of the wedge. Once you have that as a party platform then there will be a death by a thousand cuts as more and more -a la US style- legislative/regulatory restrictions will be brought forward and put into play.

https://globalnews.ca/news/3290006/support-for-abortion-rights-strong-in-canada-but-poll-shows-we-are-middle-of-the-pack-globally/

Scheer , luckily, seems to be steady on this issue and supports the current party position.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/scheer-abortion-conservative-convention-halifax-1.4799052

On the other hand the party wouldn't put the issue of supply management on the agenda when the majority of the public is in favor of putting the issue on the table during the NAFTA talks (in fairness a Dairy Industry's commissioned Ipso poll said otherwise)

http://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/june-2018/public-ahead-of-politicians-on-dismantling-supply-management/
https://www.farms.com/ag-industry-news/canadians-support-supply-management-771.aspx

It strikes me we have far too many delegates who, while bleating about public-opinions/democracy matter, only advocate on issues which are important to a minority group of one-issue advocates.

Don't abandon ship for a new group. Therein lies the road to constant defeat. Time for centrists to take back the party back from the fringe elements!

 :cheers:


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## Colin Parkinson (25 Aug 2018)

I don't think as many Canadians are absolutists on the abortion issue either way. Show them a video of a late term abortion and their minds would change quickly. I suspect a sliding scale is what a reasoned debate would end up with. Some fetal rights in the last trimester, with some health caveats to protect mom as well. The hardcore on either side would walk away disappointed. I suspect this would apply to most things. Canadians for the most part wander near the centreline of politics, wandering a bit left and bit right at times. Step to far from that path and your support plummets.


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## ballz (25 Aug 2018)

Journeyman said:
			
		

> Reading through the overnight traffic, I also had to "  :not-again: " at the 'priority' issues that were deemed worthy of voting into policy.



No kidding. Things they prioritized and therefore did have time to vote on... abortion, banning/limiting access to pornography, and birthright citizenship (should being born in Canada automatically grant you Canadian citizenship)... the last of which passed and Scheer's own COS has already said it would be a source of attack for opponents...no kidding.


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## PuckChaser (25 Aug 2018)

ballz said:
			
		

> No kidding. Things they prioritized and therefore did have time to vote on... abortion, banning/limiting access to pornography, and birthright citizenship (should being born in Canada automatically grant you Canadian citizenship)... the last of which passed and Scheer's own COS has already said it would be a source of attack for opponents...no kidding.



What isn't being mentioned is that Scheer is not obligated to use anything in the policy documents as part of his campaign platform. They could have voted to secede Alberta from the rest of Canada and he gets a veto.


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## FJAG (25 Aug 2018)

From the general look of things the outcomes were the right ones albeit by a slim majority sometimes. We need to cut down on fringe delegates. I think I'm going to get re-involved in my local riding.

 :cheers:


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## Cloud Cover (26 Aug 2018)

It was notable to me at least, that the under 30 group seem to overwhelmingly favour ditching supply management, and really were exasperated with abortion, pornography and citizenship efforts.  And, they seem to have a low-neutral taste for Scheer but at the same time are intrigued by Bernier.


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## ballz (26 Aug 2018)

I know it's just a poll, but if he's got 13% of the popular vote among decided voters already, he's off to a pretty damn good start... 
The write-up also says that another 3% are "likely" to vote for Bernier with 33% answering "would consider"... that's pretty massive for a guy who hasn't even registered a party yet.

https://mailchi.mp/abacusdata/abacus-data-poll-vote-intention-update-508045|

We may have finally reached the 10% tipping point in Canada with a face/leader to rally around.

Also of note... he takes 6% from CPC and 5% Libs/NDP.... so much for "splitting the right" or being an "extremist."


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## ModlrMike (26 Aug 2018)

As long as he clings to dismantling supply management, he'll never be popular in Quebec. His opposition will successfully sell it as an attack on Quebec in general, rather than what it really is - the breaking up of a cartel that adversely affects all Canadians. Combine this with some of his more libertarian positions that will be a tough sell in the west, and he's got quite an uphill battle.


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## Kirkhill (26 Aug 2018)

I think that one of the lessons that Max has taken on board is that, in contrast to earlier generations, it is easier to influence debate from the outside than the inside.

In the past the key to influence was to get inside the institutions of society, rise to the top and then start using the levers available.

The lessons of Nigel Farage, Donald Trump, Brexit and the form of democracy derided as populism are that institutions are susceptible to external pressure in a way that they never were in the past.

Although,

There are no lack of historical examples of external influence

I could suggest the election of Justin Trudeau as an example.  Along with the influence of Preston Manning and Stephen Harper on the debate over balanced books and national debt.  Or TC Douglas on Health Insurance.  Or the universal franchise....

Chartists, Luddites and Levellers.  Covenanters and Huguenots.  Presbyterians, Baptists, Congregationalists and Methodists.  Dissenters and Non-Conformists. 

In the past it took longer to organize an external movement.  Even when the printing press and universal literacy spawned the early generation of dissenters.

Now  a budget of a few thousand dollars makes it possible to pressure the institutions from the outside.

Britain is only one of 28 inside the EU.   But it is one of 2 outside the EU.

Max is only one of 97 inside the CPC.  But outside the CPC?


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## SeaKingTacco (26 Aug 2018)

It is hard to predict how this is going turn out. Max could canabalize the CPC from the inside out and collect disaffected Liberals, especially if JT has another bad few months.

Or he could fizzle. I think it all depends on how hungry for change the electorate is in a year.

Previous examples don't really work anymore, as Chris pointed out.


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## Remius (14 Sep 2018)

So less than a month and it seems that Mad Max has a name for his party.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/bernier-peoples-party-canada-1.4823647

I also find it interesting the amount of money he's raised in such a short period of time...


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## Bird_Gunner45 (14 Sep 2018)

Remius said:
			
		

> So less than a month and it seems that Mad Max has a name for his party.
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/bernier-peoples-party-canada-1.4823647
> 
> I also find it interesting the amount of money he's raised in such a short period of time...



Better headline might have read, "poor loser takes ball and goes home".


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## Remius (4 Oct 2018)

Bird_Gunner45 said:
			
		

> Better headline might have read, "poor loser takes ball and goes home".



Yes, and he seems to be bringing his friends and their toys with him.


This article in Le Devoir gives an update on Maxime Bernier.

https://www.ledevoir.com/politique/canada/538193/parti-progressiste-conservateur-bernier-debauche-six-presidents-d-association-au-quebec

It's in French so to summarise for some:

- Over 20,000 people have signed onto the party (Compared to the Conservatives 100,000)
- He's raised over 300, 000$ since his launch and predicts to be at 3.5 million over the course of the year.
- Organisers from 7 riding associations have jumped ship from Scheer's Conservatives
- Former MP Luc Harvey has indicated interest in running as a candidate.

So far he seems to have some momentum.  And while I'm sure that the CPC is dismissing him publicly, they have to be worried about how this might affect the next election especially with their intention of making inroads into Quebec.


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## ballz (4 Oct 2018)

Over $300k and that's without the benefit of those donations being eligible for the political tax credit. That, to me, stands out the most.

He's set the goal to stand up 338 EDAs by 31 Dec 18... that's ambitious as hell. If he can pull that off, it'll be one hell of a statement.


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## Colin Parkinson (5 Oct 2018)

If he could find a way to drain some the Labour votes from the NDP, that would be very interesting...


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## brihard (8 Dec 2018)

Digging this back up, Bernier's party seems to be having some birthing pains... He was scheduled to attend a rally at Parliament Hill today against the UN Global Compact For Migration, something he's been quite vocal about in the past little while. It looks like he wisely decided to no-show. At an event where he was to be one of the most anticipated speakers, the crowd that showed up rather inevitably consisted in large part of groups like La Meute and Storm Alliance. He's going to have to contend with the fact that at least one local university chapter of his party's support bases did attend alongside those groups.

He has some very serious headwinds coming into this next year... He has chosen to be prominent on some subjects that place him squarely alongside some groups that will utterly doom him politically if he is seen or perceived to be associated with them, even if only through lack of denunciation. He's going to need to come out with something strong if he's to try to maintain some credibility as a reasonably electable contender. He's also going to have to wrestle with the reality that this ammunition is equally potent both to the left wing who merely don't want to see him get any votes, and to CPC loyalists who don't want him splitting the right and who will use this to continue to further marginalize him and his party.

This is not looking good for Bernier. However pure his intentions, he runs the real risk of whatever he does being co-opted by some pretty radical fringe types who are more than happy to align with someone they see as potentially lending them some legitimacy.


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## Journeyman (9 Dec 2018)

Brihard said:
			
		

> ….doom him politically if he is seen or perceived to be associated with them, even if only through lack of denunciation.


You mean a clear denunciation, like "very fine people, on both sides."


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## brihard (9 Dec 2018)

Journeyman said:
			
		

> You mean a clear denunciation, like "very fine people, on both sides."



Indeed. Some things go over better when you’re already elected...


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## Journeyman (9 Dec 2018)

Brihard said:
			
		

> Indeed. Some things go over better when you’re already elected...


Well, there _was_  some initial outcry, but it receded quickly as sufficiently lowered expectations of Presidential decorum had been established.


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## ballz (9 Dec 2018)

He's been walking a tightrope on this since it started but I was impressed by how the party organizers were able to organize while simultaneously keeping this stuff at bay. I don't think this event has any traction to be used against him as ammo, I can't even find anything on it in the news.

My fear is that of the 292 riding associations that are already set up (that's massive success in my opinion), there will be a few scoundrels who are yet to be uncovered. If those are picked up by the mainstream media and he's constantly on the defensive about how x,y,z character managed to get into his party and take on an official role, then the party will quickly be characterized in the minds of the average person.

EDIT: Corrected riding associations to an accurate number.


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## brihard (9 Dec 2018)

ballz said:
			
		

> He's been walking a tightrope on this since it started but I was impressed by how the party organizers were able to organize while simultaneously keeping this stuff at bay. I don't think this event has any traction to be used against him as ammo, I can't even find anything on it in the news.
> 
> My fear is that of the 280 so riding associations that are already set up (that's massive success in my opinion), there will be a few scoundrels who are yet to be uncovered. If those are picked up by the mainstream media and he's constantly on the defensive about how x,y,z character managed to get into his party and take on an official role, then the party will quickly be characterized in the minds of the average person.



Dammit. I know when you say “scoundrel” you’re thinking like Richard Spencer, but I just can’t help but associate that word with Han Solo.


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## dapaterson (9 Dec 2018)

I can't help but think of Dirty Rotten Scoundrels and Ruprecht the monkey boy...


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## JaredRis (11 Dec 2018)

Brihard said:
			
		

> Dammit. I know when you say “scoundrel” you’re thinking like Richard Spencer, but I just can’t help but associate that word with Han Solo.



You're not alone there. Han Solo was one of the greatest scoundrels of all time. The Harrison Ford's Han Solo, not the new one. haha


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## Remius (25 Feb 2019)

Anyone watching the goings on with the by election today?

I'm curious to see how the PPC will do. 

Apparently the CPC and PPC candidates in Burnaby South have been going at it like cats and dogs the last few weeks. 

Maybe a sign of things to come.  I'll be curious to see what the PPC takes as voter percentage.

Also, James Seale, former CAF member is running in Outremont for the PPC in what is likely an uphill battle. But again, I will be interested to see if he can garner any conservative support.


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## brihard (25 Feb 2019)

Remius said:
			
		

> Anyone watching the goings on with the by election today?
> 
> I'm curious to see how the PPC will do.
> 
> ...



The PPC are a joke. I think this is going to reinforce that they're never really going to get themselves meaningfully off the starting blocks.


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## Colin Parkinson (25 Feb 2019)

They might drain off some dissatisfied NDPers and Libs along with some CPC types. There is a whole lot of people out there unhappy with the current parties.


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## PuckChaser (25 Feb 2019)

Brihard said:
			
		

> The PPC are a joke. I think this is going to reinforce that they're never really going to get themselves meaningfully off the starting blocks.



Completely concur. They're just about as relevant as the Green Party. A fringe party with a platform that only about 5% of Canadians can support, but even less vote for because they know its a throwaway vote. Canadians do not and will not ever support Libertarianism in large enough numbers to make any party like that electorally relevant.


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## Kirkhill (25 Feb 2019)

I'm disinclined to say Never.

Something of a thread: Aberhart, Manning, Caouette, vander Zalm, Manning, Harper.  Bernier? 
































Edit: Sorry for the outsize vander Zalm mugshot.


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## Kat Stevens (25 Feb 2019)

Chris Pook said:
			
		

> I'm disinclined to say Never.
> 
> Something of a thread: Aberhart, Manning, Caouette, vander Zalm, Manning, Harper.  Bernier?
> 
> ...



Well, you needed to fit his whole head in.


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## Remius (25 Feb 2019)

Chris Pook said:
			
		

> I'm disinclined to say Never.
> 
> Something of a thread: Aberhart, Manning, Caouette, vander Zalm, Manning, Harper.  Bernier?
> 
> ...



I doubt they can get many or any seats.  It’s acting as spoiler and vote splitting on the right for the CPC that is the more likely scenario.


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## Kirkhill (26 Feb 2019)

Agreed on the vote splitting and seats.....

But...

That just demonstrates that there is an appetite for those types of policies.  It might be a minority appetite but an appetite none the less.

The better plan would be to continue to try and keep those votes onside (and Scheer may have let that moment pass).


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## Loachman (26 Feb 2019)

Remius said:
			
		

> I doubt they can get many or any seats.



Neither did Reform, at first.


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## The Bread Guy (26 Feb 2019)

FYI, last night's by-election (initial) numbers via Elections Canada ...


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## Remius (26 Feb 2019)

Very low turn out, surprise surprise. 

Not much to glean from this one about the electoral mood in the country. 

All three went as predicted. 

Max Bernier won't have much to use in this.  

Outremont was a failure and garnered fringe support only. 
Burnaby did get 10% and seemed to erode the CPC vote but he also had a candidate with some name recognition so maybe not a good indicator. 10% would be a spoiler in the next election but I doubt that this will be consistent. 

No way to tell if the SNC scandal had an effect or not


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## Monsoon (26 Feb 2019)

Remius said:
			
		

> No way to tell if the SNC scandal had an effect or not


Both the Liberals and Bernier have a lot of to be concerned about in the by-election results, although the front-runners cut as expected in all three cases. For the Liberals, the early days of the SNC scandal has certainly taken it's toll: an increase of support since the last election on the island of Montreal in the Outremont race (as expected - that's SNC country), but a very much diminished second place polling in Burnaby South and York-Simcoe.

Likewise, Bernier wasn't able to break the low single digits in Montreal (no surprise), but more importantly in a very Conservative riding in suburban Ontario.

Of course by-elections don't mean very much by themselves, except in relation to what the various parties were trying to do: in Burnaby South, the Liberals and Conservatives were keeping their powder dry to prevent Singh from losing and being replaced by someone more effective as NDP leader. That left the field open for Bernier to try to make a demonstration of momentum and the best he could manage was 10%. Likewise, the Conservatives weren't trying at all in Outremont but still handily out-polled Bernier. And the Liberals very much wanted to be able to show support in a Conservative Ontario riding and came up short.

My read is that Bernier is a spent force expect as a spoiler in Quebec, the NDP has nowhere to go but up, the Conservatives are looking healthy, and the Liberals are stronger in Quebec but hurting everywhere else.


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## Remius (26 Feb 2019)

Monsoon said:
			
		

> Both the Liberals and Bernier have a lot of to be concerned about in the by-election results, although the front-runners cut as expected in all three cases. For the Liberals, the early days of the SNC scandal has certainly taken it's toll: an increase of support since the last election on the island of Montreal in the Outremont race (as expected - that's SNC country), but a very much diminished second place polling in Burnaby South and York-Simcoe.
> 
> Likewise, Bernier wasn't able to break the low single digits in Montreal (no surprise), but more importantly in a very Conservative riding in suburban Ontario.
> 
> ...



You and I must be looking at different info. 

1) the conservatives are trying very hard to make inroads in Quebec.  they performed worse than the green party in Outremont and 7% of the vote over the PPC's 3.5% is hardly what I would call handily out polling them. 

2) 10% vote share taken from the CPC in Burnaby is what left them in third place.  If Bernier manages 5-10% in all ridings next election the Liberals will come up the middle in key contested ridings where they hope to make gains. 

3) Simcoe-York was a given.  CPC was going to win. 

Mixed results offering no clear view.  the Liberals gained a seat, NDP lost one and CPC remained status quo.


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## ballz (26 Feb 2019)

Brihard said:
			
		

> The PPC are a joke. I think this is going to reinforce that they're never really going to get themselves meaningfully off the starting blocks.



I don't know how much more "meaningfully off the starting blocks" they could already be? Is there any examples in Canadian history where a party started off this strong?

The Reform Party is obviously the measuring stick for the PPC. They were in a different era which lacked the kind of connectivity we have today, so comparisons are crap shoots at best. But, one year after they started they went into the 1988 election with only 72 candidates and only won 2% of the popular vote nationally. You could extrapolate that and say if they ran 295 candidates (a full slate at the time) they'd have taken 8%, but that'd be wrong as they had zero support in Quebec and many other places. In 1993, largely due to disappointment with the Mulroney PCs, they suddenly had a breakout winning 52 seats with only 18.7% of the popular vote.

Picture this... 
2019. PPC pulls in 8-10% of the popular vote, only winning 1 or 2 seats. Andrew Scheer squeeks out a minority due to everyone being so sick of Justin Trudeau.

2020 - 2022 /2023. Liberals elect whoever as leader. Scheer continues trying to pander to different groups and has a hard time taking a principled conservative stance out of political pressure to stay in government. Conservatives across the country grow tired. They wanted in government to get Conservative policies and instead all they get is the same LibCon tripe, handouts to big corporations and deficit spending, etc. PPC, meanwhile, continues its principled message for 2-3 years. There's no more boogeyman left (Trudeau Jr) to rally against, as the CPC is in power and yet CPC voters are still disappointed.

2023. The CPC is defeated in the House. An election is called. Those tired of the CPC no longer feel like their only other option is Liberals, and there's no boogeyman for the CPC to use as a scapegoat, hell, they've become the boogeyman. Many of the disenfranchised voters leaving the CPC tent throw their vote behind Maxime Bernier and the PPC (who they've heard the same consistent message from now for 5-6 years) and the PPC takes 18-20% of the popular vote.

It's hardly an unbelievable plot given that it's already happened before.


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## Kat Stevens (27 Feb 2019)

That's a hyper-specific crystal ball you got there. Swiss made? Tisot or Rolex maybe?


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## daftandbarmy (27 Feb 2019)

Remius said:
			
		

> Very low turn out, surprise surprise.
> 
> Not much to glean from this one about the electoral mood in the country.
> 
> ...



The people in BC are generally voted/ referendumed out based on the-more-crazy-than-normal political situation here. It will likely be different East of the Rockies, where 90% of Canadian voters live....


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## ballz (27 Feb 2019)

Sir_Spams_a_lot said:
			
		

> That's a hyper-specific crystal ball you got there.



No, that would imply it was a prediction. It certainly wasn't. It's almost play-by-play of what happened with the reform party, except with different characters. 

Just pointing out what I believe is absurdity to act like the PPC is a write-off that can't even get started because it has "only" managed to get 10% in a by-election, it has "only" managed to sign up 30,000 members, it has "only" managed to put together 338 riding associations, and it has "only" raised over a million dollars, all in less than 5 months since it was first announced it would actually exist... and less than 2 months after actually getting officially recognized by Elections Canada so that it can offer tax receipts.


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## brihard (27 Feb 2019)

ballz said:
			
		

> No, that would imply it was a prediction. It certainly wasn't. It's almost play-by-play of what happened with the reform party, except with different characters.
> 
> Just pointing out what I believe is absurdity to act like the PPC is a write-off that can't even get started because it has "only" managed to get 10% in a by-election, it has "only" managed to sign up 30,000 members, it has "only" managed to put together 338 riding associations, and it has "only" raised over a million dollars, all in less than 5 months since it was first announced it would actually exist... and less than 2 months after actually getting officially recognized by Elections Canada so that it can offer tax receipts.



No, the PPC are a write off because they’re a bug lamp for xenophobes and wing nuts. I’m by no means saying that anyone following that party is that kind of person, just that they have established a natural home in the Canadian political landscape for the crazy racist uncle who makes family dinners awkward. Their arms are u comfortably open to some very ugly fringe politics. I believe that many of us who will comfortably alternate between CPC and LPC will never think about voting for them.

Regarding the Reform Party, don’t forget that they plateaued around 20% of the seats and couldn’t crack that until “unite the right” brought in the PC wing of the Canadian conservative movement. If you want to predict a similar trajectory for PPC, fine, but really all you’re predicting is the LPC being the beneficiary of a few ‘gimme’ elections until Canadian conservatism gets its act together.

Best case for Canada is a Conservative win in this election, and PPC gets the rug yanked out from under them. A party enticing to populist right wing demagogues is not something Canada stands to benefit from.


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## Kat Stevens (27 Feb 2019)

ballz said:
			
		

> No, that would imply it was a prediction. It certainly wasn't. It's almost play-by-play of what happened with the reform party, except with different characters.
> 
> Just pointing out what I believe is absurdity to act like the PPC is a write-off that can't even get started because it has "only" managed to get 10% in a by-election, it has "only" managed to sign up 30,000 members, it has "only" managed to put together 338 riding associations, and it has "only" raised over a million dollars, all in less than 5 months since it was first announced it would actually exist... and less than 2 months after actually getting officially recognized by Elections Canada so that it can offer tax receipts.




Ah, the Galactica Political model; "All this has happened before, and it will happen again".


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## ballz (27 Feb 2019)

Brihard said:
			
		

> No, the PPC are a write off because they’re a bug lamp for xenophobes and wing nuts. I’m by no means saying that anyone following that party is that kind of person, just that they have established a natural home in the Canadian political landscape for the crazy racist uncle who makes family dinners awkward. Their arms are u comfortably open to some very ugly fringe politics. I believe that many of us who will comfortably alternate between CPC and LPC will never think about voting for them.



You may, in the end, be correct on this, but it's simply far too early to write them off because of that. Indeed, they had a large collection of the fringes try to hijack the party, and of course the media and other parties tried to bolster that reputation, but they have done a pretty good job so far keeping the party on track including kicking out a bunch of people very swiftly upon uncovering any bad history they have. It's a test of time they have to pass.



			
				Brihard said:
			
		

> If you want to predict a similar trajectory for PPC, fine, but really all you’re predicting is the LPC being the beneficiary of a few ‘gimme’ elections until Canadian conservatism gets its act together.



Oh give it up. I'm not predicting anything, I'm just not being stupid enough to declare very possible things as impossible. 

Anyway, find me an argument for voting for Scheer that is rooted in principled conservatism and not that he is the lesser of two evils, and I'll care. The difference between the Libs & the CPC at this point is in rhetoric only.



			
				Brihard said:
			
		

> Best case for Canada is a Conservative win in this election, and PPC gets the rug yanked out from under them. A party enticing to populist right wing demagogues is not something Canada stands to benefit from.



The irony here is too much. The Libs and CPC are sucking at the teet of every given identifiable group in existence, and it's the PPC who have categorically stated they will do otherwise, and yet its the PPC accused of being demagogues. Canada stands to benefit a lot from moving away from identity politics, not further into it.


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## dapaterson (27 Feb 2019)

My perspective on the upcoming election...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6mJw50OdZ4


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