# APS 2012 - Housing market in military driven communities



## McG (25 Jun 2012)

An collection of anecdotal observations seem to be suggesting that APS is suffering some troubles this year in comparison to past years.  It appears a series of incidents of are stagnating traditionally fast moving military housing markets (places like Petawawa, Oromocto, Shilo, etc).  I suspect the fallout will be significantly higher rates of IR and unaccompanied than past years.  I'm curious if others are seeing this, or if it is just perception.

The first big kicker was the one month delay in posting messages to coincide them with budget time announcements.  This delayed the start of "house selling season" in both big cities and military communities, which in turn delayed when people started selling and going on HHTs.  Then, all three brigades held brigade level exercises and I am told that within one of those brigades there was direction (either from fmn level or unit level) that nobody would be doing an HHT until everyone was out of the field - this period of busy activity further delayed personnel going on HHTs into military driven housing markets.  This retardation of buyers into military driven markets has significantly slowed sales, and other factors are exacerbating.

Many of these "military driven markets" (hence force "MDMs") are sustaining unsustainable house construction industries.  The size of the bases is either stagnant or increasing only marginally, yet year after year new arrivals are coming in a choosing to build houses instead of buy existing houses - eventually (if we're not there already), supply exceeded demand and every new house built by a military postee equates to a military family being unable to sell themselves out of their home.

... and to further drive down these MDMs, the approach of July seems to be inspiring some (seemingly unaware that they can go unaccompanied and (hopefully) move the family later in the summer) to throw-in the towel and request IR.  Much like the sustained unsustainable house building, this also equates to one more military family unable to sell themselves out of their home.

As I said at the top, maybe this is just perception.  I know that a lot of big city housing markets are depressed at the moment, but they still seem to be moving.  Is anyone else seeing that the "MDMs" seem to be relatively dead this year?


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## Sprinting Thistle (25 Jun 2012)

This describes the situation in Petawawa this year accurately.  Agents are indicating that this year, sales are 10% lower than last, and last year was lower than the previous year.  Having just sold in Pet, after languishing on the market for some time, I can attest to the facts of your post.  Further, I have a number of friends who have yet to sell and are still waiting for an offer.  

Construction in Petawawa continues apace with plans for another hundred+ units next year.  

I would be interested to hear other experiences.


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## SeaKingTacco (26 Jun 2012)

The only thing that I would add as an observation is, that, in places like Gagetown and Petawawa, there is a significant retiring military population that every year more or less permanently removes housing from the market.

You need to quantify: does that effect outweigh new construction that happens each year?


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## PuckChaser (26 Jun 2012)

So much for the military not wanting to compete or inflate the local economies...


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## Strike (26 Jun 2012)

PuckChaser said:
			
		

> So much for the military not wanting to compete or inflate the local economies...



Is it the military inflating the local market? Or is it military members doing it by being determined to sell their house for more than they bought it for because 'that's what's supposed to happen when you buy a house.'

A friend of mine, upon learning he was moving back to the area, noticed the house he had previously lived in was up for sale.  The current owner had done nothing to the house and had jacked the price up twenty grand even though the market in that neighbourhood had remained the same.


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## PuckChaser (26 Jun 2012)

Could be people are just dumb and will pay whatever someone asks for a house which drives up the local market.


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## dapaterson (26 Jun 2012)

PuckChaser said:
			
		

> Could be people are just dumb and will pay whatever someone asks for a house which drives up the local market.



It's less that people are dumb than that they are under time pressure - one week for the HHT.  Realtors know that, and leverage it to their advantage.


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## captloadie (26 Jun 2012)

I believer that the situation has several aspects. Why are more families taking the risk of building new? Why are members buying houses in places like Shilo and Pet for 300K+? Because the banks offered them really cheap money and the realtors said that houses only ever go up in value. So when markets don't increase, mentally, many members are not prepared to take a loss. We also say things like, well, if you can't sell in three/four years, you can always go on IR. 

My personal opinion is that taking a loss on your home isn't reason enough to grant IR (as opposed to going 6 months unaccompanied). At some point we all must take personal responsibility for our finances and not blame the military. 

I think we will see in the very near future that in some military communities the real estate market is nothing more than a big ponzi scheme that is ready to crumble.


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## PuckChaser (26 Jun 2012)

dapaterson said:
			
		

> It's less that people are dumb than that they are under time pressure - one week for the HHT.  Realtors know that, and leverage it to their advantage.



Unfortunately all that pressure is caused by the inadequate, expensive and lack of PMQ housing on most bases. If people had another option other than buy, we wouldn't have the military housing boom.


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## captloadie (26 Jun 2012)

dapaterson said:
			
		

> It's less that people are dumb than that they are under time pressure - one week for the HHT.  Realtors know that, and leverage it to their advantage.



That being said, with the MLS and modern day comms, a week isn't as short as it used to be. I had 12-14 houses all ready to look at on the day I arrived for my HHT, and then addded in another 5-6 after reevaluating what was available. Although, I left my wife back in Europe, which does greatly speed up the process 0:


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## Popurhedoff (26 Jun 2012)

Having retired last last year in Pet, there were 600 other members retiring that month as well,  not sure how many were staying in the local area but to most of the people I talked too they were staying in Pet, which adds to less houses on the market.

To add to this, the speculation of a new unit being formed or moved also drives up housing prices.  I was witness to that when a new unit moved to Shearwater in the early nineties and when that unit moved to Greenwood two years later.  In both cases the real estate prices started climbing almost two years before the move. A decade later the unit was disbanded and the housing market crashed.

One of the previous owners of my house were discussing this topic last year, and know what he paid for the house, what I paid for the house and what it is assessed at now is more than double of what the original owner paid.

My Wife and I were planning to sell our house in Pet and buy in Gagetown so that she could be closer to her family but have since decided against it.  It would cost us double for the same style of house, we decided to pay this one off first, maybe the market will be better in the future.

To also add to this is that the average price for a house (cross country) is now 330K. A lot of communities use this figure to artificially inflate the values in their communities and we are stupid enough to pay. The housing market is artificial, the economy is weak, but prices continue to climb, interest rates are low, and there is a chance that when the economy strengthens and interst rates climb, that we would have end up not being able to afford our houses, thus creating another housing market crash, north of the border this time.

Cheers
Pop


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## Good2Golf (26 Jun 2012)

MCG, in some locations, there is also the effect of local builders building "on spec" to a spec of their own, based on their own perceptions of what the market will bear in terms of supply and demand.   Petawawa is a good example; on news of CSOR's creation, many builders started churning out houses for the "hundreds and hundreds" of soldiers and their families, only to realize that the unit had not stood up over night with its end-state manning levels.  The results was a glut of spec homes without a matching number of buyers.  Confucius once said that those who do not learn their history are fated to repeat it -- let's  replace CSOR with 450 Squadron and watch the exact same thing happen in Pet.  Builders: "But the Department said there was going to be a Squadron with hundreds and hundreds (~400) personnel..."  Realistic evaluation: "Yes, arriving over the next half decade..."  Petawawa is a specific situation, with its own challenges, but much of what the builders (or more accurately the small group of families who appear to represent the majority of economic influence in the region) decide to build is not based on a detailed/profound assessment of the actual housing needs of the community, but rather their perception (not always often right) as to what the market is willing to bear.  Those with a house that is close in specification to the "spec home" style that builders are flooding the local housing market with will continue to face a challenge when it comes time to sell.  A good plan for home ownership in the Pet area would be to buy something that meets your families needs while being "unique enough" (in a desirable way) to not have many competing sellers.

 :2c:

Regards  
G2G

p.s.  The inclusion of availability of rental properties and PMQs into the local area housing issue is plays a significant role in what shapes a member's chosen housing course of action, and when proportionately low, influences that members towards the oft-glutted single home market.


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## McG (26 Jun 2012)

The CF could answer the question of which housing markets have unsustainable, military-driven growth.  In managing all the files for postings and Intended Place of Residence on release, we should know what we are moving into & out of a community in a given year, and we should also be able to calculate which percentage of military housing sales are dependant on military buyers (ie. the CF should be able to identify those occurances where it moved a military family out of one house, and then moved another military family into that same house).  

In theory, CF could be monitoring military driven markets in order to raise an alarm when military driven development is unsustainable within the community.


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## Sprinting Thistle (26 Jun 2012)

I conducted my first HHT in Petawawa in 1997.  At that time the most expensive houses were located in The Forests at a whopping $124,000.  The townhouses on Victoria Street were being built at that time at a new sale price of $74,900.  Today, those same houses in The Forests are selling in the mid 300s with newer builds going for 400K and the townhouses are reselling for 250-ish.   2005 - 2006 saw a huge upswing in sales and building.  In fact many houses were sold in bidding wars between prospective buyers.  I believe that in Petawawa we are now seeing a down turn that will only continue next year.  As I stated above, I have a number of friends still waiting to sell.  The builders have saturated the market and there does not appear to be an easing of new construction.


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## dapaterson (26 Jun 2012)

captloadie said:
			
		

> That being said, with the MLS and modern day comms, a week isn't as short as it used to be. I had 12-14 houses all ready to look at on the day I arrived for my HHT, and then addded in another 5-6 after reevaluating what was available. Although, I left my wife back in Europe, which does greatly speed up the process 0:



Unfortunately, that level of preparation is the exception, rather than the rule.


And PMQs are not a solution.  The CF should not be in the residential real estate business if it can at all avoid it; too much grief and expense, to say nothing of the social isolation that it can breed.


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## bridges (26 Jun 2012)

While I'm retired from the CF & not subject to postings, the anecdotal comments here pretty much agree with my own (aghast) reading of rising house prices, both in MDMs and elsewhere.  House prices in our rural agricultural community in eastern Ont., within commuting distance of Ottawa, have approximately doubled in the last 5-7 years. 

We're planning to keep renting until we find a burst bubble in a place where we want to own - waiting decades, if necessary.  Meanwhile, life goes on and we're happy to trade off the lack of equity for fewer headaches and more recreational time.   Not to mention easy portability in the event of layoffs, & needing to move for a job elsewhere.

It's a personal choice, dependent on individual circumstances.  For us, the risk of being house-poor or stuck with something priced over the market is just not worth it right now.    I feel for people stuck in the middle of it though.  The days when you could get lucky & make $200K pulling out of Chilliwack seem a long, long way in the past.


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## GAP (26 Jun 2012)

Do what a lot of property managers/owners/landlords do......attend bankrupcy auctions.....it's amazing what deals are available on properties on these auctions......


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## bridges (26 Jun 2012)

GAP said:
			
		

> Do what a lot of property managers/owners/landlords do......attend bankrupcy auctions.....it's amazing what deals are available on properties on these auctions......



Hmm, interesting.  Where do you see those auctions advertised - in the local paper?  I'd be curious what kind of shape those houses are in.   Sounds worth checking out.  

Alternatively I was thinking of buying a place with an attached rental suite, to help with the mortgage payments - and maybe serve as an apt for my parents at some point - but I'm leery of the apparent headaches of renting.  Not every tenant is as nice as me.      Nor their cats as well-behaved.  

Heard a call-in show about home ownership over the lunch hour today, and am now more convinced than ever that there's no urgency to get back into the ownership stream anytime soon, in some of these inflated markets.   In many cases you'd be "buying high", with no guesses as to what the market will do next.  This is a bit removed from the OP's point about military-dominated markets, but still interesting context.


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## GAP (26 Jun 2012)

I just did a quick google on auction houses in Manitoba and this little tidbit came up

AUCTIONS BY LOCATION
http://www.manitobaauctionguide.com/auctions-by-location-b-1.html


This is probably a good read also

How to Buy a House at Auction
http://www.ehow.com/video_4985267_buy-house-auction.html


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## armyvern (26 Jun 2012)

captloadie said:
			
		

> ...
> 
> I think we will see in the very near future that in some military communities the real estate market is nothing more than a big ponzi scheme that is ready to crumble.



The taxfree tour money in certain MHM certainly played into the current situation as well. Tax-free tours and a roto coming baack here with all that extra cash?? Prices in some of those markets went up hugely as sellers took advantage of the tour cash in their own greed. It was predicted on this site, that when the tax free tours dried up, Ptes and Cpls simply wouldn't have 30 000 grand in their pocket for a down payment anymore for a damn mobile home and that those mainly military market areas would experience a crash. Those money earning tours are, for the most part at those rank levels ... non-existant right now. The pers who did have tax-free tour money to pay the inflated prices then, now don't want to "lose" when they sell either so inflated housing prices still exist in those locations ... and people aren't biting now. 

My old home was 300K more expensive a mere 15 years later at one of those "99% Military" market locations. I checked it out on MLS a couple years ago - Squat was done to it, but someone bought it. Wow. That lad will either A) lose his shirt when he tries to sell it, or B) will have no choice but to retire into it. 

Because, for 392K now ... I can build modern, efficient and brand new. Guess where my money would go.


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## Wookilar (27 Jun 2012)

Another factor in some of the smaller mainly military communities were the fairly large number of people coming out of Edmonton ('07-09 especially) that had buckets of cash from their houses going through the roof since the late 90's.

I bought in St Albert in '97 for $113K, sold in '05 for $202K (and that was the end of a bidding war), and the guy that bought my place sold it 13 months later for $425K. It was a nice place, but nothing spectacular. 

People coming to Gagetown bought some pretty nice places (and boats, and quads, and campers). Now that those people are getting posted again, they are wanting to recoup their inflated prices and far fewer people are biting  (hence the large number of houses in Oromocto west that still have not sold).


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## Strike (27 Jun 2012)

Wookilar said:
			
		

> People coming to Gagetown bought some pretty nice places (and boats, and quads, and campers). Now that those people are getting posted again,* they are wanting to recoup their inflated prices * and far fewer people are biting  (hence the large number of houses in Oromocto west that still have not sold).



I think it's more that they want to make more money on their home by listing it at a higher price.  If they wanted to recoup their prices the houses would be listed for pretty much what they were when these people bought them in the first place (Plus whatever they may have put in to it wrt actual improvements, which painting is not), thus leading to a STABLE and FAIR market, as opposed to one that is artificially inflated by greed.


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## armyvern (27 Jun 2012)

Strike said:
			
		

> I think it's more that they want to make more money on their home by listing it at a higher price.  If they wanted to recoup their prices the houses would be listed for pretty much what they were when these people bought them in the first place (Plus whatever they may have put in to it wrt actual improvements, which painting is not), thus leading to a STABLE and FAIR market, as opposed to one that is artificially inflated by greed.



In a utopian world maybe. One of my Cpls who was posted in to Gagetown was one of the types detailed below. Paid out cash for his Gagetown home coming out of Edmonton, bought the nice boat, trailer and a Harley too with the cash he had left over from Edmonton. Is used to spending his paycheque now on entertainment/gas ... not loans. Now needs to upgrade/replace those toys as they're getting on in years (6) --- his house is listed at 43K more than he paid for it (& it's in PMQ West [Oromocto West] with nothing having been done to it either). Just sayin'.


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## CombatDoc (27 Jun 2012)

Any idea which way the market in the Ottawa area is moving?  With the proposed move west to the Nortel site, I imagine that the east end e.g. Orleans will be less attractive while the west end e.g. Stittsville, Kanata will be more attractive.  Couple that, however, with layoffs in the federal PS and who knows what the market will do.  I'm figuring that prices will drop.


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## armyvern (27 Jun 2012)

CombatDoc said:
			
		

> Any idea which way the market in the Ottawa area is moving?  With the proposed move west to the Nortel site, I imagine that the east end e.g. Orleans will be less attractive while the west end e.g. Stittsville, Kanata will be more attractive.  Couple that, however, with layoffs in the federal PS and who knows what the market will do.  I'm figuring that prices will drop.



I'll go with "they'll maintain staus quo" then.    Someone else can bet on the "they'll rise".  8)


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## dapaterson (27 Jun 2012)

CombatDoc said:
			
		

> Any idea which way the market in the Ottawa area is moving?  With the proposed move west to the Nortel site, I imagine that the east end e.g. Orleans will be less attractive while the west end e.g. Stittsville, Kanata will be more attractive.  Couple that, however, with layoffs in the federal PS and who knows what the market will do.  I'm figuring that prices will drop.



I'm thinking along the same lines, but it's hard to say right now.  I did luck out last time the Feds did their downsizing; I bought in the trough after the last round of cuts.  In 2000 I bought a two bedroom condo in downtown Ottawa, with underground parking, for under $90K; sold in 2007 for about $180K (and put the money into a house).

I expect that the full effect of the Federal cuts plus the DND move to Nortel won't be felt for another 4-5 years; then the cycle will repeat itself.


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## bridges (28 Jun 2012)

dapaterson said:
			
		

> In 2000 I bought a two bedroom condo in downtown Ottawa, with underground parking, for under $90K



 :rofl:     That seems the stuff of fantasy now.  How the market has changed; nicely played.



> I expect that the full effect of the Federal cuts plus the DND move to Nortel won't be felt for another 4-5 years; then the cycle will repeat itself.



Yep.  A co-worker recently bought a house near Nortel, even though our unit won't be there for a few more years (if ever...), and many listings in the area are now mentioning proximity to the new DND location.  Orleans, on the other hand... even if there is a dedicated express bus, the journey will still take longer than most might want to spend standing & holding onto a strap on a moving vehicle.

Ditto on the cyclical nature of these things.   As a rule, Ottawa tends to be relatively insulated from the vagaries of the market.  There are ups & downs, but not with the same amplitude as some other cities.  Your best bet, if unsure, may to get a place in the south where you can get to everywhere.  But this is covered in other threads.     :nod:


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## McG (28 Jun 2012)

Strike said:
			
		

> ... thus leading to a STABLE and FAIR market, as opposed to one that is artificially inflated by greed.


I wouldn't be so haughty as to make that blanket statement.  It fails to consider that we often post members from low-value MDMs to hyper-inflated civilian driven markets (such as Edmonton in past years, or Vancouver, Toronto & Cold Lake) – these members need every dollar they can get from their home in an MDM in order to break-into the hyper-inflated market; it is requirement, not greed, leading them to get what they can.  I have no doubt greed is a factor, but it is not *the* factor as suggested by your statement.  Your greedy label is also unfair to members whose house prices are driven up by competing bids.  

You're saying that families in MDMs should be turning down market offered value on their homes.  Sure it may lead to a stable market in military communities, but it is certainly not fair as you are now calling on families leaving MDMs to eat the cost of inflation as they move to more expensive civilian markets while their peers moving in the opposite direction gain a windfall of moving into communities that are perpetually below large urban posting locations (Ottawa, Toronto, Edmonton, etc).  Inflation (or deflation) in MDMs needs to be a reflection of what is happening across the country yet moderated by the local economy – it is not stable, but it is fair.

Selling families ask for a certain price based on what the market is offering … and I highly suspect that you would not turn down tens of thousands of dollars for the sake of stability if that is what the local market ever offers for a house you are selling.  When you do, let us know and we can colour the rest of us greedy.


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## Sprinting Thistle (28 Jun 2012)

I have to agree with MCGs post above.  There are a number of factors, other than simple greed, at play.  In Petawawa, as an example, agents play a part of the price factor.  This year, in my neighbourhood, one agent had a majority of the listings.  This agent suggested selling prices to clients that were, in my opinion, above what the market would support in the neighbourhood.  Once the bulk of the HHTers arrived all of these houses ended up dropping their prices more than once in order to compete. 

Another issue is the members original purchase price.  In some cases, members buying are stuck with what is left on the market and are forced to pay prices they would rather not.  This happened to me with a late, end of summer, posting.  When it comes time to sell they would like to get their money back but, as happened this year in Petawawa, the market flattens, or even drops, and the member can be out of pocket.  

So, there are a number of reasons that factor into price-setting of houses in MDMs.


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## McG (2 Jul 2012)

Here are a few thoughts on what the CF could do to keep military driven markets from stagnating during APS:
[list type=decimal][*]Extend temporary dual residency benefits from 6 months to 12 for military driven markets only (because if one does not sell during APS, they are unlikely to sell until next APS) - with the risk of paying for two homes alleviated, more people will be ready to go look for a home.
[*]Base commanders should not approve IR requests that arise from an inability to sell primary residence at origin before September (when children are back in school and posted members are already in gaining unit location unaccompanied), and that approval should be dependant on showing the residence was actually put on the market over the summer.  This will encourage people not to give-up early
[*]If all posting messages are ever again delayed by a full month, then COS dates should shift later by two weeks in order to make-up some of the time lost in the selling/buying season.
[*]It used to be that the full IL&M benefits were supposed to have been conditional on showing members attempted to arrange a door-to-door move (when closing date was the critical path to negotiating a sale) - a handful of individuals deliberately negotiated dates that gave a maximum of paid days in a hotel so everyone suffered.  We need to go back to the old system, but hold accountable those people who abuse it.  This will make negotiating sales easier, and in each case it would save money in comparison to a year unaccompanied and IR.
[*]If there is not a military requirement otherwise, COs need to ensure that all members are allowed their HHT as timely as possible.  If a guy is in the field and cannot be replaced, then he will have to wait; if a guy is rear party in garrison his HHT should not be delayed just because other guys are still in the field.[/list]

I think something also needs to be done to ensure that new home construction is not funded to unsustainable levels in MDMs.  At the same time, the new home market must continue to exist at some level (because there will always be somebody with a housing requirement that cannot be met by the re-sale market, and because it provides a pressure release against over-inflation).  I don't know what the right answer to this is.


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## McG (27 Jul 2012)

The CDS came to Gagetown early in the month & apparently talked on this concern ... rather, he talked more broadly including the lack of sales happening in military driven markets and he talked on the very significant financial losses occurring in some diving civilian markets.  In responce to a question about the program where DND would buy all unsold houses after a certain period of time, he indicated that is something that may have to come back.  He came out and told the crowed that he didn't know the answer, but it is a problem that is getting attention.

Service members do not get to decide when they will be posted or not based on when the housing market is favourable.  As it is the government's decision, it is fair that the government fully assume the risk.  But, if the government is fully assuming the risk, then it would not be appropriate for the military homeowner to reap the windfall should a posting message come a time of local hyperinflation.  I suspect many people will insist they are entitled to both the profit and the risk protection ... but the solution cannot be free lottery tickets.

Maybe the CF could offer two systems - at the time of home purchase CF members could choose to accept their own risk & gamble on winning in the housing market, or they could choose to give to the government both the risk & entitlement to profit (beyond average national housing inflation for the period of ownership) - if a member chooses the risk protection, then the government will also buy the house should it not sell on posting (but if a service member chooses to gamble on the profit, then they also gamble on to occurrence of a sale itself).



			
				dapaterson said:
			
		

> And PMQs are not a solution.  The CF should not be in the residential real estate business if it can at all avoid it ...


I understand the CDS also commented on the CF having significantly reduced its PMQ footprint in years when housing markets were moving better, and that maybe (at least for some areas) this could have to be revisited.  What would you think if PMQs & CFHA were replaced with a military housing estate and a homeowners association that required all sales be to other military families or back to the crown?


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## GAP (27 Jul 2012)

Would that not be pretty capital intensive initially?


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## Sprinting Thistle (27 Jul 2012)

Having just left one of these military driven markets for a higher civilian driven market I would be interested to know what the US military experiences for comparison.


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## Cdnleaf (6 Oct 2012)

Found this using the search function - this is/was a great post and I concur with your initial observations. My own perception of the Petawawa market at this time, is that it's close to flatlining. The number of houses currently MLS listed and not moving seems really high this year, in addition to new builds entering the market every month. The real estate industry and by that I'm thinking the pure number of agents in this area, has to play a role in sustaining the prices artificially high; less their own mortages don't get paid. Watched as some of you have done, the values double, triple and so on during a 10 year period; makes me ask when is there going to be a (-) market correction. I'm releasing next year with the entitlement to move, and have been tracking the market. We are staying in the area and discussing staying with our current house (purchased 2005) or moving. 

Anyone have a link, or are the numbers currently available showing yearly sales/prices. Have a great Turkey Weekend.  Dan.


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## sidemount (12 Jun 2015)

Intersting thread that Ill bring back up. 

A few years later are we on the same downward trend?
Here in Petawawa there seems to be a ton of properties up for sale and NOTHING seems to be moving. Are HHTs just really late or are we losing a ton without gaining or are there too many places being built.


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## ProPatria05 (12 Jun 2015)

I think it's 'all of the above'. Clearly, though, there has been WAY too much construction here in the past 4-5 years. Builders got greedy after years of troops coming home with $20,000 or so in their pockets, doing tours every couple of years to Afg and looking to buy homes. Real estate agents are now investing in subdivision developments, so clearly have a bias to push the new homes. Builders are happy because the new homes tend to sell when up against slightly older ones. The ones getting screwed are the re-sellers.

Oh, and the Town of Petawawa mayor and council also have blood on their hands, as they've been more than happy to collect the building permit fees and be able to claim they've got such a 'fast-growing' community.

Even the homes that are selling (including mine, thankfully) are selling at break-even, or a loss. I sold mine at a small loss after 4 years, despite trying to be true to the market. Not complaining, though, as many haven't sold yet. And people are panicking and dropping their prices like crazy. It was bound to happen, after years of vulture agents churning up the market and artificially jacking up home prices. I mean, really? $300,000+ for a home in PETAWAWA???

It's the perfect storm, and we're finally seeing what is the inevitable result of the unchecked greed that's been going on for the past number of years. Good luck to everyone who is still selling - hope you land on your feet.


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## Bradboy (12 Jun 2015)

We owned and lived in a small but modern townhouse in Petawawa and tried to sell in the summer of 2013 in order to upgrade to a larger home. After the house sitting on the market and open house after open house with no one showing up to them, we decided to rent the house out. Luckily we had the down payment for the house we ended up buying and live in now or I imagine we'd still be living there. 

It's funny how things happen though. Our small townhouse not selling has been great for us. We've been renting it out since October 2013 and it's become an excellent source of extra income for our family. We've had no problems finding tenants and good quality ones at that. We considered putting it back up for sale again this summer as our current tenant is leaving. After watching another townhome on the same street sit on the market for almost 2 years we decided against it and are continuing to rent.

It's unbelievable how many new builds are going up in the area. It seems there's more houses than there are families! You'd think the town council would understand the impact this will have on the real estate market in the area. But as mentioned in an earlier post, town council is probably rolling in money with all the building permits being purchased and the extra property taxes being paid!


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## sidemount (13 Jun 2015)

The number of new builds is crazy, along with the new builds going up on the other side of Doran, its just not good business, they are going to be empty.

The town is right out of er!


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## ProPatria05 (13 Jun 2015)

Not to mention the vast wasteland they've taken 3 years to create across from Moncion's, where the promised 'mall' is supposed to be built. There has literally been NOTHING done on that land since last year. My bet is that the local families that have the town of Petawawa by the balls (Moncions, Mohns, Clouthiers, etc, etc) are holding this up so it doesn't disrupt their incestuous monopoly on business.


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## sidemount (13 Jun 2015)

The good ol sandpit up there.

That place is brutal, I don't expect to ever see anything build in there, maybe bring some tonka trucks up there for all the kids to play. haha


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## Bradboy (13 Jun 2015)

I hear they're waiting for enough businesses to purchase retail space before they begin building. So far Metro grocery stores has bought into it but I haven't heard of anything else. Great... another over priced grocery store in town.


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## sidemount (15 Jun 2015)

If it ever comes.....the town doesnt like competition so Id be surprised to see stores jump through their hoops to come here.

I think it will be a sand pit for another year or 2 at least.


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## ixium (16 Jun 2015)

I'm actually getting posted this year to Pet. A few others I know are as well. The issue for such a late HHT is that houses in other military towns aren't selling either. I got my message late April and put the house up a week or so later and it is still on the market. I know a couple guys selling and have only just sold in the last week or so.

The vast majority of houses sold are all military where bases are(Maybe not Edmonton or Ottawa...) but when no one buys their house, they can't get to their new posting to buy another members house.

Brookfield should have a place setup that gives advantage of members buying from other members.


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## George Wallace (16 Jun 2015)

ixium said:
			
		

> I'm actually getting posted this year to Pet. A few others I know are as well. The issue for such a late HHT is that houses in other military towns aren't selling either. I got my message late April and put the house up a week or so later and it is still on the market. I know a couple guys selling and have only just sold in the last week or so.
> 
> The vast majority of houses sold are all military where bases are(Maybe not Edmonton or Ottawa...) but when no one buys their house, they can't get to their new posting to buy another members house.
> 
> Brookfield should have a place setup that gives advantage of members buying from other members.



???

Selling your current home has no affect on a HHT.  You do NOT have to sell your house in order to go on a HHT.  Nor do you HAVE TO BUY from another member.  

You have your house on the market, and anyone could buy it, not just another military member.

You can go on your HHT and buy a home anywhere within the unit boundaries that you find meets your needs and desired access to your place of employment.  You do not have to buy from another military member.  There are many new homes constructed in the Petawawa and Pembroke areas.  There are homes West of Petawawa along Hwy 17 in Chalk River and Deep River area.  There are homes for sale in areas South of Petawawa in places like Eganville.  To the East, you will find homes for sale in Cobden, Renfrew, Arnprior, Westmeath, and dozens of other locations.  Perhaps you want to live in the Pontiac, across the river in Quebec.


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## McG (16 Jun 2015)

George Wallace said:
			
		

> Selling your current home has no affect on a HHT.  You do NOT have to sell your house in order to go on a HHT.


Brookfield will tell members the exact opposite.

It is true that you can go on an HHT before selling, but if the property you attempt to buy falls through while waiting for your current home to sell then you don't get the costs of a second HHT.


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## sidemount (16 Jun 2015)

We've heard here that there are still quite a few hhts to come but the market is still very flooded. I guess if you are coming to pet you will have a good selection haha.


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## Bird_Gunner45 (16 Jun 2015)

ixium said:
			
		

> I'm actually getting posted this year to Pet. A few others I know are as well. The issue for such a late HHT is that houses in other military towns aren't selling either. I got my message late April and put the house up a week or so later and it is still on the market. I know a couple guys selling and have only just sold in the last week or so.
> 
> The vast majority of houses sold are all military where bases are(Maybe not Edmonton or Ottawa...) but when no one buys their house, they can't get to their new posting to buy another members house.
> 
> Brookfield should have a place setup that gives advantage of members buying from other members.



If you're a service couple or have no intent on going IR from your current home you could do the HHT and apply for a PMQ in Petawawa. If you do a conditional offer and sell your house before you move than great, if not, than you move into the PMQ (dependant on availability of PMQs there of course) and try to rent your current home out. I know of 2 couples in Shilo that have done that (both from Gagetown). The markets in most military communities seem to be bad (Gagetown, for sure, is horribly flooded as Oromocto, population 8000ish, has over 200 houses on the market alone).

As for the timings of HHT, this has been a topic of discussion here also. As Maple Resolve is running in the April/May timeframe than it should be expected that a large number of postings will always be later than they were in the past. Pers in the High readiness units _shouldnt_ be posted directly after MR (though this happens) so it _should_ largely effect the supporting cast of the ex.... Unfortunately this doesn't seem like it's going to change, as the idea is that the high readiness units receive their newly posted in pers in the summer, do Lvl 1-4/5 training in the autumn, than confirm with Ex MR.


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## ixium (16 Jun 2015)

Well I know that you can go on an HHT (which Brookfield frowns on). You either have to have enough cash to put a deposit on a new house or put a condition on your purchase agreement that says pending sale of previous house. Some people don't like dealing with that, some people don't mind, but I'm sure all of them would rather not have to.

I'm also not even looking in Pet, except maybe one place. Prices are kinda crazy for me. I'd rather be away from towns and in the country. Seriously looking at getting a place in Quebec if the hoops I have to jump through aren't too much.


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## PuckChaser (16 Jun 2015)

Keep in mind you're going to have to sell. Living far out of the largest employer in the area severely reduces your market reach.


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## captloadie (16 Jun 2015)

Bird_Gunner45 said:
			
		

> If you're a service couple or have no intent on going IR from your current home you could do the HHT and apply for a PMQ in Petawawa. If you do a conditional offer and sell your house before you move than great, if not, than you move into the PMQ (dependant on availability of PMQs there of course) and try to rent your current home out. I know of 2 couples in Shilo that have done that (both from Gagetown). The markets in most military communities seem to be bad (Gagetown, for sure, is horribly flooded as Oromocto, population 8000ish, has over 200 houses on the market alone).


You need to be very careful about going the rental route. It is not something to do without researching it thoroughly beforehand. First, if you rent out your house, you lose your entitlements from Brookfield for the sale (RE commission, lawyers fees, TDRA, etc.). You need to make sure you've opted for the RE incentive for not selling (up to 12K depending on appraisal of the home). Sure, you can roll the dice and not tell Brookfield you are renting it out, but you are then technically committing fraud.


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## sidemount (16 Jun 2015)

ixium said:
			
		

> Well I know that you can go on an HHT (which Brookfield frowns on). You either have to have enough cash to put a deposit on a new house or put a condition on your purchase agreement that says pending sale of previous house. Some people don't like dealing with that, some people don't mind, but I'm sure all of them would rather not have to.
> 
> I'm also not even looking in Pet, except maybe one place. Prices are kinda crazy for me. I'd rather be away from towns and in the country. Seriously looking at getting a place in Quebec if the hoops I have to jump through aren't too much.



Only thing I would worry about are taxes. Other than that there I know some guys that are living on the Quebec side of the river. Other places to have a look are Deep River, Chaulk River, Eganville, Cobden, and anywhere in between. All really nice places that aren't a terrible commute.


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## ProPatria05 (17 Jun 2015)

Would be very interested to get some data on the number of people posted across the country, with the typical mid-July COS date, who have not taken their HHT yet. If it is significant, there are a couple of reasons that have already been mentioned:

1. Ex MAPLE RESOLVE - now that it's pretty much a full-court Army press with one brigade as PTA, another as OPFOR, and the third providing all the OCTs and mentors, it already pushes a lot of HHTs to the right
2. The Brookfield scare tactic, and sometimes outright lie, that you should not (or cannot) take your HHT until you sell your house. Since most buyers and sellers in military towns are other military, if nobody goes on an HHT until they sell their house then of course houses won't sell. It's a perfect catch-22.

The other potential reason is the stricter enforcement of the door-to-door move that kicked in a few years ago. People are hesistant (and I know some) to commit to a closing date on a new home until they know the closing date on their current home, as they might have to pay for interim meals, accommodation and storage if the dates don't line up. It would come out of their posting allowance, not their pocket, but to some the posting allowance is sacred.


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## McG (17 Jun 2015)

Part of the problem is the aggregate effect of individual member decisions coming back to hurt ourselves at the collective level.  Every member screws another member when building a home in a small military comunity where housing supply already exceedes demand.


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## PuckChaser (17 Jun 2015)

Homes are personal decisions, and I don't think it's anyone's responsibility to buy a home sold by a military member. I'm buying a new build home, as my realtor advised they're easier to sell in 5-7 years when I'm posted out. Why should I use my hard earned money to buy a house I don't want to deliberately keep a market down?


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## Bruce Monkhouse (17 Jun 2015)

MCG said:
			
		

> Every member screws another member when building a home in a small military comunity where housing supply already exceedes demand.



That's quite a shot at those who wish the joy of owning a brand new house,,,,,,


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## McG (17 Jun 2015)

PuckChaser said:
			
		

> Homes are personal decisions, and I don't think it's anyone's responsibility to buy a home sold by a military member. I'm buying a new build home, as my realtor advised they're easier to sell in 5-7 years when I'm posted out. Why should I use my hard earned money to buy a house I don't want to deliberately keep a market down?


And this is why the situation will never improve in Petawawa or Oromocto without DND causing something to change.  Everyone will make the decision that benefits themself (seeking the most gain or the least risk).   

If you are building into a small military community, then you are contributing to the problem of ever-growing supply for an unchanging level of demand.  I do hope karma does not come bite you in 5 to 7 years, and I do realize your decision alone is not enough to influence that market dynamic.

Building more houses in saturated communities is what will drive the market down.  Constraining the supply by limiting construction is what will allow the market to grow.



			
				Bruce Monkhouse said:
			
		

> That's quite a shot at those who wish the joy of owning a brand new house,,,,,,


Maybe, but it is not untrue and it is not something that should be expected to change without external influence.  It is Nash's equilibrium.  Choose the path to potential greatest gain for all and you are simultaneously at risk of the most dangerous fall.  Choose the path of greatest potential personal gain and you simultaneously undercut everybody else while minimizing the potential worst case for yourself.

Every military member (in a small, military community) depends on the next military member to buy his house.  But the next military member says "fuck you, I am looking out for me!"  In this environment, it is actually self-damaging to be the individual who settles for what he needs as opposed to all he wants … but going for all the wants still screws the others in the community.


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## PuckChaser (17 Jun 2015)

MCG said:
			
		

> And this is why the situation will never improve in Petawawa or Oromocto without DND causing something to change.  Everyone will make the decision that benefits themself (seeking the most gain or the least risk).
> 
> If you are building into a small military community, then you are contributing to the problem of ever-growing supply for an unchanging level of demand.  I do hope karma does not come bite you in 5 to 7 years, and I do realize your decision alone is not enough to influence that market dynamic.
> 
> Building more houses in saturated communities is what will drive the market down.  Constraining the supply by limiting construction is what will allow the market to grow.



I think blaming the military member for wanting to purchase the best home for their family, which has a higher chance of resale is misguided. Why should I be forced to live in a small town in an old-fixer upper home if I don't want to? We need to be looking at the town governments who are supposed to control building in the area, for wanting taxes and permit money that may be artificially inflated by the CAF's presence. Another real issue we've created is the extreme lack of suitable PMQs, and their relative high-cost compared to purchasing, which drives people to the housing market. This, coupled with making large bases in small communities, rams a huge influx of homebuyers into an area that typically would never see that kind of turnover.


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## George Wallace (17 Jun 2015)

Petawawa has long been ruled by the Car Dealers and Realtors.   When the Government cut back on Postings in the late '80's the Realtors all cried foul, and continued to do so through to today.  It was a 'sellers market' in Petawawa around 2006, when DND announced the stand up of CSOR, and soon after the purchase of Chinooks and all it involved in increasing the size of the Heliport in Pet.  Local businessmen took advantage of those announcements to go into a 'building frenzy', building over 700 new homes in the next couple of years.  Now it should be a buyer's market. 

It is unfair for MCG to blame a service member for not buying from another service member.  Although a nice sentiment, it is totally illogical.  Not everyone wants to buy a 'fixer upper' or in a community of a certain demographic.  Some want to buy new.   Some want to buy in the country away from work and neighbours.  Some want to buy within walking distance of work.  Insinuating that a service member should throw their desires of what they want to purchase in a home out the window to appease some other service member who is trying to sell their home, is nonsense.    

The other thing; is the asking price for their homes could be their main problem.  The example I remember vividly, on posting to Petawawa, was being shown a home a few blocks from the village Post Office.  The Realtor said they would show the home, but did not recommend it.  It was owned by a female MWO who was posted out, and her house was on the market for over a year.  The home was damp and smelled of mold.  The above ground pool she had in the backyard was full of water blacker than strong coffee, with half the pool cover submerged in the sludge.  She would not drop her price in any negotiations and the property was slowly going to ruin.  If you are trying to make a windfall on you home sale in a buyer's market, you are fantasying.  Sometimes you have to bite the bullet and take the best offer.


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## ProPatria05 (17 Jun 2015)

There might be a few hold-outs that are refusing to lower their price, but by and large people are dropping their prices and often selling at a loss. First house I sold in Petawawa in 2009, I sold for $26,500 more than what I paid - after 2 years. Granted, I got a steal when I bought it (panicked sellers). The house I just sold, I lost $3,500 after 4 years (but probably paid about $4K too much in the first place).

When posting messages first came out, people were listing their houses for $10,000 less than what they probably should have been, because they wanted to sell quickly and avoid what happened to so many last year (i.e. not selling). So right off the bat, everyone else has to lower theirs to compete, and so the downward spiral began. Realtors are not happy, because they're trying to keep the prices up in the ridiculously over-inflated, over-supplied housing market they helped create. Mine tried to get me to hold out for more during negotiations, but I told her there was no point risking losing the sale since Brookfield would cover that amount of a loss. She was not happy. Several friends have told me the same story.

So it's not that people are holding out - in fact it's mostly the opposite. There are just more houses than there are buyers, and yet the rampant construction continues. It's mind-boggling.


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## George Wallace (17 Jun 2015)

ProPatria05 said:
			
		

> ....... Realtors are not happy, because they're trying to keep the prices up in the ridiculously over-inflated, over-supplied housing market they helped create.



Tell me about it.  Was posted back to Pet from Kingston, after being in Gagetown for six years, and was amazed at the "Toronto prices" that were demanded for homes.  Ridiculous.  There are some good Realtors in the Pet area, and some very unscrupulous ones as well.


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