# Russia in Decline



## Kirkhill (5 Oct 2008)

I could have sworn we have a Russian Superthread on this board but I'm blowed if I can find it.

Consequently we have another thread.

Taken from the Washington Post




> By Murray Feshbach
> Sunday, October 5, 2008; Page B03
> 
> ....Putin's military is still in tatters, armed with rusting weaponry and staffed with indifferent recruits. Meanwhile, a declining population is robbing the military of a new generation of soldiers. Russia's economy is almost totally dependent on the price of oil. And, worst of all, it's facing a public health crisis that verges on the catastrophic.
> ...



I was going to excise just the salient facts and leave out the commentary - but there isn't actually that much commentary there.


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## Spanky (5 Oct 2008)

Wow.  If what is reported in the article is accurate, Putin has a lot more to worry about than Georgia, or missle defense shields.


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## Edward Campbell (5 Oct 2008)

That’s a good catch, Kirkhill (specially given that it has no unrecognizable (to the civilized ear) Scots words). The issue isn’t what Russia s doing, right now, in South Ossetia/Georgia, nor is it what mischief Russia *might* make in Crimea/Ukraine. The question is: whiter Russia: Up or Down?

The answer, for me, is DOWN and down and down. And that’s what makes Russia so dangerous. We have an essentially *primitive* political culture that *had* great power and it wants the trappings of power back.

When I was a young man Russia was a superpower – one of only two – and the issue of “who wins” was an open question. Later we routinely considered Russia as part of the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) with the US and Europe as the main only significant economic powers. But now we pretty much recognize that China is also a significant economic power and a emerging military one, too. India has achieved a _special relationship_ with the USA – one that I guess will survive a change n the White House.

So is Russia now in a collegial relationship or an equivalency with Brazil? Not in Putin’s mind dreams.

But, realistically, where does Russia ‘fit?’ It was, in 2007, accoding to a useful set of tables collected from reputable sources in _Wikipedia_:

•	11th (behind Brazil, Canada and Spain) in the IMF’s list;

•	11th (behind the same countries) in the World Bank’s list; and

•	11th (same top 10) in the CIA’s World Fact Book – which uses slightly different data.

Will it, *can* it grow to 10th or fall to 12th? According to Kirkhill’s article it is on a slow, graceful decline towards 20th – in a tie with Indonesia. That will infuriate _ordinary_ Russians who voted for Putin because he promised to restore Stalin’s glory. Then Russia becomes very dangerous.

Russia is not our friend. It may be a future enemy – but on a par with Indonesia.


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## Kirkhill (5 Oct 2008)

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> ..... That will infuriate _ordinary_ Russians who voted for Putin because he promised to restore Stalin’s glory. Then Russia becomes very dangerous.
> 
> Russia is not our friend. It may be a future enemy – but on a par with Indonesia.



Aye, but an Indonesia with nuclear weapons peopled by dying middle-aged men with no future generations to be concerned about.  We can hope that their nuclear weapons don't work as advertized. Unfortunately at least some will.


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## a_majoor (5 Oct 2008)

The nightmare scenario for the Russians is the growing Islamic populations in the 'Stans and the "Near Abroad", probably followed by the growth of China as a peer competitor and eventually surpassing Russia in wealth and power. Since Russia, "Islam" and China are all continental powers, with limited force projection capabilities (compared to the United States with it's global power projection, and the Western allies who have regional and limited global reach), then we can see central Asia as the cockpit of conflict in the early 21rst century.

As Russia tries harder to maintain its imperial pretensions with fewer and fewer human and economic resources, then, yes, they will become very dangerous and unstable indeed. The question is, where will they vent their rage?


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## GAP (5 Oct 2008)

Well for a good number of decades Europe and the especially the US were the villain......there's no reason they can't be again....


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## Greymatters (5 Oct 2008)

A lot of these problems have been known for years - what no one knew before was the numbers involved, as the Russian/former USSR government never released them or allowed anyone to learn of them.


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## [RICE] (13 Oct 2008)

I find many things scary with this article, assuming all information is accurate.  I think that Russia is not in any shape to be restored back to its "Stalinistic Glory", there are too many elements against it. The bit about the Russian military being way too outdated is rather worrying considering the Ultra-nationalists might decide they can do a better job than the government in the coming years (accuse me of playing too much call of duty 4 if you must haha). If Russia wasn't armed with an array of nuclear missiles, I might feel a little more at ease...


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## George Wallace (13 Oct 2008)

[RICE] said:
			
		

> I.................If Russia wasn't armed with an array of nuclear missiles, I might feel a little more at ease...




I wouldn't.  Think of all the other "Predators" and "aspiring despots" on their borders.  That would really make for a nasty world security situation.


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## oligarch (13 Oct 2008)

http://www.amazon.ca/Out-Red-Investment-Capitalism-Russia/dp/0470269782


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## [RICE] (13 Oct 2008)

George Wallace said:
			
		

> I wouldn't.  Think of all the other "Predators" and "aspiring despots" on their borders.  That would really make for a nasty world security situation.



I only said a little   

That is a very good point however... I think we can all agree that what ever happens, it probably won't be good.


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## Marmite (14 Oct 2008)

Sometimes, if you take the lid off the pot, all the scum will rise to the surface.


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## mjc_1812 (14 Oct 2008)

I would be a little hesitant to call Russia a power in decline. 



> Russia holds the world's largest natural gas reserves, the second largest coal reserves, and the eighth largest oil reserves. Russia is also the world's largest exporter of natural gas, the second largest oil exporter and the third largest energy consumer.
> from http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/Russia/Background.html



People can be born, weapons can be bought but oil and natural gas is a finite commodity which will continue to be in demand ESPECIALLY with growing economies like China and India.

Furthermore, Russia continues to grow economically with a growth rate of 8.1% (CIA factbook), which puts it well ahead of the United States (2%) and any of the big European countries (they are behind both China and India).

Summary? Russia: Oil, nukes and an annual GDP growth...


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## chanman (14 Oct 2008)

mjc_1812 said:
			
		

> I would be a little hesitant to call Russia a power in decline.
> 
> People can be born, weapons can be bought but oil and natural gas is a finite commodity which will continue to be in demand ESPECIALLY with growing economies like China and India.
> 
> ...



You forgot to add crumbling infrastructure, low birth rate, high death rate, and a nice slew of environmental problems left over from the good old days. 

http://www.economist.com/world/europe/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8896844


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## oligarch (15 Oct 2008)

chanman said:
			
		

> You forgot to add crumbling infrastructure, low birth rate, high death rate, and a nice slew of environmental problems left over from the good old days.
> 
> http://www.economist.com/world/europe/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8896844



low birth rate = common for most european and developed countries, there is even a nice economic explanation for this. In countries that fare well you need less kids to take care of you when you get old.

high death rate = I'll give you that one, for males.... hence the National Project for healthcare, as an investor, a good place to put your money

crumbling infrastructure => invest in concrete and steele.. they are industries that will grow and hire lots of people, leading again to GDP growth and diversification away from oil

really, as much as the economist likes to say bad things about Russia's future, actual economists project GDP growth 6.5-8.5% for the foreseeable future, depending on who you believe. Which brings me to the point, Russia is growing, the USA is in decline, given its defecits (today: new record), its national debt (the NY national debt sign had to remove the dollar sign recently to place a "1" there instead, because the sign is running out of room). Yet somehow "Russia" is the one in decline. Sounds like wishful thinking by some.

Cheers!


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