# UK and Scotland



## Kirkhill (8 May 2015)

The Scotland Issue is going to bother David Cameron for a bit so I thought I would start a thread to discuss it all on my ownsome rather than following my usual practice of forcing a tangent.

No thanks necessary.

So, anyway, after looking at the Scottish numbers last night I think Nicola and Wee Eck are still fighting an uphill battle.

The SNP took 56 of 59 seats
The Tories, Labour and the Whigs (Liberal Democrats) each held one seat.
Well done the SNP...if you like that kind of thing.

But

In an electorate of 4,094,784 and with a high turnout of 71.1%, the SNP managed to secure a total of 1,454,436 votes.  This means that while they secured 50% of the votes on the night. Their share of the total population is about 36%.

On the night the Unionist Parties (Tory, Whig, Labour, UKIP and Green) secured 1,447,202 votes, or the other 50% of those bothered to vote. 1,183,393 registered voters couldn't be bothered to get off their duffs.

In last year's referendum the SNP secured the support of 1,617,989 voters of a registration of 4,278,859.  The higher registration (4,278,859 vs 4,094,784) can be put down to the signing up of 16 year old voters that were ineligible to vote in the General Election.

If you remove that youth cadre (184,076 voters from both the general registration and the SNP votes) then you get last night's numbers.

Meanwhile, on the Unionist side, many folks felt safe to vote their tribal loyalties, or even sit idle and wait and see what happens.  

I doubt they will sit idle, or split the vote, during another referendum.

I don't see that Nicola and Eck have yet secured their "Winning Conditions".

Consequently, I think David Cameron (of the Scottish "Crooked Nose" Clan) can afford to proceed cautiously on the Scots front.  Boris Johnson is proposing a Federal Britain, and something of that may be useful.  Especially if diluted by bringing into the Westminster Federation Wales and Ulster and possibly the Independent Territories of Man, Jersey, Guernsey, Sark and the other Channel Islands.  

Could they go whole hog and bring their Overseas Territories into Westminster as well?  The Falklands and the Turks and Caicos represented in London? That would follow the French model.

Even more radically they could decide to regionalize England back to the ancient Heptarchy of Seven Kingdoms (Geordies, Scousers, Brummies, West Country, East Anglia, the Home Counties and London).

I don't think things will ever come to that - but it leaves a lot of food for thought.

I believe that most Scots will continue to stick with the Union, while constantly seeking more advantage.

On the same basis of tradition, affection and self interest I also believe most Scots will support giving David Cameron leverage to get a better deal from Europe.   

Referendum Data 

Election Data

Edit: Edit on the Heptarchy.  London was never part of the Heptarchy - Occasional Battleground/Neutral Ground and always a trading post but never a Kingdom on its own.  The Seventh Kingdom, that I missed, was Yorkshire - the Heart of Danelaw.


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## tomahawk6 (10 May 2015)

Ms Sturgeon is calling for new tax and welfare powers.Cameron is so far cool to the idea.

http://www.bbc.com/news/election-2015-scotland-32680698


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## Kirkhill (10 May 2015)

> "As First Minister, as leader of the SNP, I've got a responsibility to try to unite Scotland and I'm determined that I do that."



And Scotland isn't united behind the SNP

Take a look at the Second Place Map.

http://kieranhealy.org/blog/archives/2015/05/09/who-came-second-in-the-uk-election/

Many Scots voted their party rather than the Union.  And the Labourites, Conservatives and Lib-Dem supporters are all Unionists.

Tangent Alert:  If you take a look at the English second place map the strength of UKIP really becomes apparent - and it crosses all the old party region lines.  That will certainly play into both the EU referendum strategy and into the seat redistribution that the Lib-Dems previously blocked but will no be implemented shortly after the throne speech. 

This is what the political map of England and Wales would look like after the redistribution.  Link to Map and Agenda

And here is the Independent's view of Cameron's agenda

Link

Edited to provide links to maps as maps are protected.


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## Kirkhill (10 May 2015)

> Two maps comparing the location of coalfields in the UK (left) against the seats the Labour party won in the 2015 General Election.



Link to the Independent

When you take a look at the Scottish coalfields you will also the Maggie, Maggie, Maggie, Out, Out, Out tendency.


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## a_majoor (19 Jan 2016)

Cann't seem to find a UK election thread, so mads can move this if required. However, the idea that pollsters are deliberately manipulating polls may have had something to do with the Scottish referendum, and has a certain resonance in other jurisdictions as well:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/12108096/The-election-polls-werent-wrong-because-of-mistakes-pollsters-deliberately-cheated.html



> *The election polls weren't wrong because of mistakes – pollsters deliberately cheated*
> If pollsters want to restore their reputation they need to come clean about deliberately misleading the public
> Dan Hodges By Dan Hodges1:10PM GMT 19 Jan 2016
> 
> ...


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