# Dion loses Outremont to NDP  in Quebec bi-election



## retiredgrunt45 (18 Sep 2007)

I think the final nail has been hammered into Dion's coffin.

http://news.sympatico.msn.ctv.ca/TopStories/ContentPosting.aspx?feedname=CTV-TOPSTORIES_V2&showbyline=True&newsitemid=CTVNews%2f20070916%2fque_byelection_070917



> *Liberal Leader Stephane Dion lost his first electoral test Monday night as the NDP won the Montreal riding of Outremont, while the Conservatives took a seat from the Bloc Quebecois. *
> In the hotly-contested Outremont riding, NDP candidate Thomas Mulcair managed to maintain his lead over Liberal hopeful Jocelyn Coulon, who had been hand-picked by Dion.
> 
> Despite the loss, Dion remained defiant as he addressed Coulon's supporters.
> ...


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## RangerRay (18 Sep 2007)

I can't see Dion lasting to the next election.  It's too bad, because he is Harper's best weapon!  ;D


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## Simon (18 Sep 2007)

Tories steal seat from Bloc as Liberals lose Outremont 
Even before polls close, Liberals begin pointing fingers for failure of Dion's hand-picked candidate 
CAMPBELL CLARK AND LAWRENCE MARTIN 

From Tuesday's Globe and Mail

September 18, 2007 at 12:00 AM EDT

MONTREAL AND OTTAWA — Stéphane Dion suffered a by-election blow Monday that is expected to cast a shadow over his leadership as the Liberals lost their Outremont stronghold to the NDP and reports of new infighting emerged inside his party. :rofl: :nana: :cheers:

NDP star candidate Thomas Mulcair thrashed Mr. Dion's handpicked standard-bearer, Jocelyn Coulon, and the Conservatives' gain of a Bloc Québécois riding only rubbed salt in the Liberal wounds.

At the same time, a senior official in Mr. Dion's office said they will review allegations from some party activists that backers of deputy leader Michael Ignatieff discouraged some Liberals from working on the Coulon campaign.

The three by-election results – in which the Bloc hung onto the riding of Saint-Hyacinthe–Bagot – suggest Quebec's federal political map is being redrawn.

 It suggests the Conservatives are the main competition for the separatist Bloc in the largely francophone areas outside Montreal and Western Quebec, with the Liberals unable to reclaim the francophone vote even in Montreal. :cheers:

The NDP, meanwhile, established an important beachhead just as Quebec voters are rethinking their allegiances – it's their first Quebec seat since a one-time by-election in 1990 that will likely see Mr. Mulcair, a former provincial Liberal environment minister, head to Ottawa as lieutenant to NDP Leader Jack Layton.

The Conservatives picked up a long-time Bloc Québécois stronghold in Roberval—Lac-St. Jean. Roberval mayor Denis Lebel won with a stunning 59.4 per cent of the vote, leaving the Bloc's Celine Houde with only 27 per cent.

The Bloc's Ève-Mary Thaï Thi Lac won in St-Hyacinthe—Bagot with 42 per cent, beating Tory Bernard Barré, with 98 per cent of the votes counted.

The Liberals garnered less than 10 per cent of the vote in both those ridings, and was fourth behind the NDP in St-Hyacinthe—Bagot.

But Outremont was the most noteworthy — because it proved to be a debacle for Mr. Dion.

Mr. Mulcair took 48 per cent of the vote, to only 28 per cent for Mr. Coulon, with 98 per cent of the polls counted.

Mr. Dion took the stage last night, :crybaby: with Mr. Ignatieff  > nearby, and told the   crowd at Mr. Coulon's headquarters that they will remember the by-election when they win a general election. :blotto:

“At that moment … we will remember this night of Sept. 17 and we will say that we Liberals had the fortitude to pass through a difficult moment to rebound for all Canadians,” he said.  :boring:

Mr. Layton,   meanwhile, told an ebullient crowd at a St. Laurent Boulevard bar: “You have changed the political face of Quebec – and Canada.”

Some Liberals were insisting even before Mr. Coulon and Mr. Dion conceded defeat that the by-election was a one-off affected by low turnout and a star NDP candidate, and that it did not reflect what would happen in a general election.

But senior Liberals had suggested the riding would be an acid test for his leadership – and there were whispered rumblings that he could face a mounting challenge if he lost, although many doubt he can be forced out.

But there were also reports of allegations of sabotage by rivals and counter-allegations of false scapegoating.

Monday, a senior Liberal said he expects a review of allegations from some party workers that they were discouraged from working on the campaign by organizers they suspect were behind Mr. Ignatieff.

“We're going to have a hard look at this on the political and the internal side,” the official said. “... We can't just brush this away.”

Party workers also revealed Monday that they have been filing complaints to Mr. Dion's office for months about other activities by former members of the Ignatieff team. They include complaints that the Toronto MP's supporters are aggressively campaigning in an attempt to stack the party's national executive with Ignatieff backers when some national executive positions are up for re-election this fall.

They also said that former Ignatieff organizers, who perceive the Liberal leader as weak, have been sending campaigners in an attempt to get Ignatieff supporters nominated to run in the next general election.

In response to the allegations, an Ignatieff spokesperson said: “We're not going to comment on rumours and speculation and anything like that.”

Many Liberals were buzzing Monday with rumours that the Dion and Ignatieff camps are pointing fingers at each other   :argument: – although at least some of Mr. Dion's camp insist they do not believe charges of disloyalty against Mr. Ignatieff's camp.

Members of Mr. Dion's team feel it is to be expected that after a long leadership fight, there will be some trying times on the unity front. They said they were aware Ignatieff backers have been holding meetings in Toronto, but that they have been told they were to raise funds to cover Mr. Ignatieff's campaign debts.

The Outremont seat came open when Paul Martin's Quebec lieutenant, Jean Lapierre, resigned in January. Both Bloc seats were held by high-profile veterans: Yvan Loubier resigned in Saint-Hyacinthe–Bagot to run unsuccessfully in the March provincial election, and Michel Gauthier, the party's onetime leader, gave up his Roberval–Lac-Saint-Jean seat to retire from politics.

The Conservatives' win in Roberval–Lac-Saint-Jean is partly ascribed to a popular local candidate, Mr. Lebel. But it also indicates a hardening realignment that sees the federal Conservatives and the provincial Action Démocratique emerging as the chief competition to the separatists outside Montreal.

Outside of Montreal, “there's no doubt that the sovereigntists' adversary is no longer the Liberals,” said Jean-Herman Guay, a University of Sherbrooke political scientist.

Recent provincewide opinion polls show the Tories roughly tied for second with Liberals across the province, considerably behind the Bloc, although many believe that hides different regional battles.

The race in Outremont, a riding in the heart of Montreal that is usually a Liberal bastion, has caused some Quebec Liberals to predict that a loss would place Mr. Dion's leadership in jeopardy – or at least cause some in the party to “make some noise” that would unsettle him, in the words of one MP.

The Liberals have almost always won the riding, home to Montreal's francophone elite. The NDP, meanwhile, launched an all-out blitz to Mr. Mulcair that saw Mr. Layton repeatedly campaign in the riding, hoping that the party could establish a beachhead in the province. 

More than 100 Liberals, including Mr. Dion's wife, Janine Krieger, and about a dozen MPs manned the phones in an office behind Mr. Coulon's storefront campaign headquarters. Desks were divided by ethnic community, and multilingual MPs such as Mario Silva and Omar Alghabra called those who speak their language.

“You want it to turn as best you can, so you do whatever you can,” said Toronto MP Ken Dryden, whose status as a Montreal Canadiens hockey legend has not been forgotten in the city. He said the by-elections themselves are perhaps not crucial, but they are being made into major symbols: “They're as big as they are made out to be.”

Across town, Mr. Layton and his communications director, Brad Lavigne, stood in shirtsleeves poring over a riding map when a reporter walked in, plotting out a tour of “zone houses” – neighbourhood mini-headquarters for the organization – to pump up the troops.

At the polls, some voters said they felt problems around Mr. Dion's Liberals. Romeo Vézina, a senior citizen who said he has almost always voted Liberal, said the riding had become harder for the Liberals to win as it was extended east – an area where there are more sovereigntists. But he added that the party and Mr. Dion are having problems now: “He does not have the team he needs to support him,” he said before voting at a Fairmount Street school.

Another voter leaving the polls, Phil Koropotkin, said he's not impressed with Mr. Dion, and switched from past elections: “I've always voted Liberal, but it's time for a change. There's nobody there that stimulates me,” he said. “I think the leadership is in for a rude awakening.”

Before the results came in, the race in Outremont and the weak campaigns in the two other races had some senior Liberals from Quebec arguing it was time for the party to wake up and start aiming a major organizational effort at the province.

This G&M story is particularily cruel, excellent >


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## Simon (18 Sep 2007)

OUTREMONT

Thomas Mulcair, NDP: 11,156 (48.4)

Jocelyn Coulon, Liberal: 6,554 (28.4)

Jean-Paul Gilson, Bloc Quebecois: 2,490 (10.8)

Gilles Duguay, Conservative: 1,907 (8.3)

Francois Pilon, Green: 504 (2.2)

Francois Yo Gourd, neorhino.ca: 141 (0.6)

Mahmood Raza Baig, Independent: 77 (0.3)

Jocelyne Leduc, Independent: 66 (0.3)

Alexandre Amirizian, Canadian Action Party: 43 (0.2)

Romain Angeles, Independent: 42 (0.2)

Regent Millette, Independent: 32 (0.1)

John C. Turmel, Independent: 30 (0.1)

(166 of 168 polls)

– – – 

ROBERVAL-LAC-ST-JEAN

Denis Lebel, Conservative: 17,458 (59.4)

Celine Houde, Bloc Quebecois: 7,930 (27.0)

Louise Boulanger, Liberal: 2,806 (9.6)

Eric Dubois, NDP: 675 (2.3)

Jean-Luc Boily, Green: 499 (1.7)

(194 of 194 polls)

– – – 

ST-HYACINTHE-BAGOT

Eve-Mary Thai Thi Lac, Bloc Quebecois: 13,443 (42.1)

Bernard Barre, Conservative: 11,965 (37.5)

Brigitte Sansoucy, NDP: 2,538 (7.9)

Jean Caumartin, Liberal: 2,379 (7.4)

Jacques Tetreault, Green: 1,169 (3.7)

Christian Willie Vanasse, neorhino.ca: 384 (1.2)

Michel St-Onge, Canadian Action Party: 71 (0.2)

(224 of 224 polls)


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## armyvern (18 Sep 2007)

Well,

ain't that telling ...


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## Jaydub (18 Sep 2007)

As mincy as Stephane Dion is, I'd rather see him in power than Jack Layton.  Isn't that sad?  

Although, as much as I despise Jack Layton's politics, he's a much stronger leader than Dion.


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## geo (18 Sep 2007)

From a personal perspective, Mr Mulclair got elected because of his popularity as an MLA.  His personal bunfight with Mr Charest & subsequent resignation from the Provincial Liberal party on an environmental issue earned him ooldes of brownie points.  People voted against the Consdervatives, against the Block and against the Liberals.  It just happens that the NDP has a star candidate with a highly marketable profile.

I wonder what the participation (voting) rate was for Outremont?


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## Yrys (18 Sep 2007)

Here : http://enr.elections.ca/enr_v2/ElectoralDistricts_e.aspx


Outremont : Voter turnout: 23,938 of 63,728 registered electors (37.6%)

Saint-Hyacinthe--Bagot : Voter turnout: 31,949 of 75,827 registered electors (42.1%)

Roberval--Lac-Saint-Jean  :Voter turnout: 29,368 of 62,894 registered electors (46.7%)


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## GAP (18 Sep 2007)

So, the larger the turnout, the more support for the Tories....


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## geo (18 Sep 2007)

As I thought,  The Outremont isn't so much a vote against the Liberals ... much more a vote for Mr Mulclair.


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## IN HOC SIGNO (18 Sep 2007)

geo said:
			
		

> As I thought,  The Outremont isn't so much a vote against the Liberals ... much more a vote for Mr Mulclair.



Still a kick in the pants for M. Dion whichever way you slice it.


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## geo (18 Sep 2007)

Yup.... should make him pucker up some more.
Suck on this lemon for size


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## je suis prest (18 Sep 2007)

There is more of a message for Mr. Duceppe in this than for Mr. Dion.  The Liberals have not been a factor in francophone Quebec for many years now,  but the results in St. Hyacinthe and Roberval indicate how far they have fallen.  The Liberal vote, however, did not fall as much as the Bloc's vote did - and that is what harmed the Liberals in Outremont, and almost cost the Bloc two seats, instead of one.  The Bloc vote generally went down by 18%.  In Outremont it went NDP,  in the other ridings it went Tory.

This would seem to indicate that the sovereigntist coalition of left/right that built the BQ is falling apart as it no longer has separatism as it's raison d'etre.  The old Bleu ridings of francophone Quebec are returning to the Tories.  The urban votes remain a challenge for them.  But Mr. Duceppe has as much, if not more, to worry about from last night's results as Mr. Dion has.

One thing that seems to be clear is that the Afghan mission did not drive votes in Francophone Quebec away from the Tories.


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## geo (18 Sep 2007)

Low voter turnout.


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## IN HOC SIGNO (18 Sep 2007)

je suis prest said:
			
		

> There is more of a message for Mr. Duceppe in this than for Mr. Dion.  The Liberals have not been a factor in francophone Quebec for many years now,  but the results in St. Hyacinthe and Roberval indicate how far they have fallen.  The Liberal vote, however, did not fall as much as the Bloc's vote did - and that is what harmed the Liberals in Outremont, and almost cost the Bloc two seats, instead of one.  The Bloc vote generally went down by 18%.  In Outremont it went NDP,  in the other ridings it went Tory.
> 
> This would seem to indicate that the sovereigntist coalition of left/right that built the BQ is falling apart as it no longer has separatism as it's raison d'etre.  The old Bleu ridings of francophone Quebec are returning to the Tories.  The urban votes remain a challenge for them.  But Mr. Duceppe has as much, if not more, to worry about from last night's results as Mr. Dion has.
> 
> One thing that seems to be clear is that the Afghan mission did not drive votes in Francophone Quebec away from the Tories.



I agree that M. Duceppe has plenty to be worried about also. Mr Layton and Mr Harper are the big winners today.


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## geo (18 Sep 2007)

nope, not Layton
The vote was for Mulclair.


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## Fishbone Jones (18 Sep 2007)

geo said:
			
		

> Low voter turnout.



Low confidence in politics, policy and most of all, the actual politicians. Abuse of, and apathy by, the constituents is coming home to roost. Elections won't be won on platforms, but by the party that can convince voters to take 1/2 hour out of their lives to make a difference. Most of today's society is only willing to do that if they can see some sort of personal reward for themselves.


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## geo (18 Sep 2007)

recceguy,
Sitting around here (LFQA) I truly did not hear anything about major policy issues - incl Afghanistan & environment.
Considering we are dealing with a minority gov't and the real risk that the gov't might fall with a vote of non confidence after the throne speach Mr Harper has lined up for us, many people just said... why bother?

Also, this whole donnybrook about veils & masks just threw things right over the top.  The electorate will need to see something big before they are willing to come out IMHO


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## IN HOC SIGNO (18 Sep 2007)

geo said:
			
		

> recceguy,
> Sitting around here (LFQA) I truly did not hear anything about major policy issues - incl Afghanistan & environment.
> Considering we are dealing with a minority gov't and the real risk that the gov't might fall with a vote of non confidence after the throne speach Mr Harper has lined up for us, many people just said... why bother?
> 
> Also, this whole donnybrook about veils & masks just threw things right over the top.  The electorate will need to see something big before they are willing to come out IMHO



Agreed...a by election is one thing...the real test will be if Mulcair can hold the riding when there is a general election. It will be the same in the other ridings as well. I don't know what the coverage was like locally but it took a lot of digging on the internet to find any coverage of the by elections at all.


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## RangerRay (18 Sep 2007)

Actually, I would venture that the Greens were a big loser as well.

Usually in by-elections, they do quite well.  And supposedly, with "global warming" an issue, and their supposed growing popularity amongst the electorate, this should have been an opportunity for them.

Yet the closing polls showed that they remain on the fringe.

Oh, that's why!  Elizabeth May threw her support behind Dion!  I see that worked out great for him!  :rofl:


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## Yrys (19 Sep 2007)

I've heard Dion saying on TVA : " all of the Liberal Party chiefs became Prime Minister, except on in the 19th century,
 that left his place to somebody else. I Intend to become Prime minister to help citizens be more richs, more green ... ".

Even considering the cut that television make of speechs, I now consider him an ... alien .

And I don't mean someone coming from another country ...


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## a_majoor (19 Sep 2007)

While the results are interesting, these are by elections, and things can and will change a lot between now and a presumptive non confidence vote in October. The opposition might decide they do not have the financial or other resources to run an election and decline to vote against the government, for example. Expect the unexpected.

Watch and shoot!


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## Flip (19 Sep 2007)

> And I don't mean someone coming from another country ...



Didn't he have french citizenship? ...


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## Yrys (19 Sep 2007)

That' why I make that comment.


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## observor 69 (19 Sep 2007)

IN HOC SIGNO said:
			
		

> Agreed...a by election is one thing...the real test will be if Mulcair can hold the riding when there is a general election. It will be the same in the other ridings as well. I don't know what the coverage was like locally but it took a lot of digging on the internet to find any coverage of the by elections at all.



 The National had good coverage on their evening news and Radio Canada Telejournal was all over the results.
My take is with Geo. Outremont - popular candidate, Bagot barely hung on as Bloc and Roberval was all about cuts in the forest industry.
As has been said Duceppe was a big loser and Layton shouldn't be looking for any Quebec ground swell of support.
Ref Dion, it is too late for the Liberals to change leaders for the next election so they better unite behind him


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## IN HOC SIGNO (19 Sep 2007)

Baden  Guy said:
			
		

> The National had good coverage on their evening news and Radio Canada Telejournal was all over the results.
> My take is with Geo. Outremont - popular candidate, Bagot barely hung on as Bloc and Roberval was all about cuts in the forest industry.
> As has been said Duceppe was a big loser and Layton shouldn't be looking for any Quebec ground swell of support.
> Ref Dion, it is too late for the Liberals to change leaders for the next election so they better unite behind him



cool...I'm really looking forward to watching the train wreck that Dion will make of his national campaign.  ;D


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## RangerRay (19 Sep 2007)

IN HOC SIGNO said:
			
		

> cool...I'm really looking forward to watching the train wreck that Dion will make of his national campaign.  ;D



You don't have to wait long!

<a href="http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20070919/Omar_Khadr_070919/20070919?hub=TopStories">Dion meets with Khadr lawyers, calls for action</a>


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## a_majoor (20 Sep 2007)

Longer term implications for Liberals. They really have to start looking outward if they want to remain a viable force in Canadian politics, otherwise, I will stand on my prediction that the left wing Liberal supporters will migrate farther left to the NDP and Greens, and the Liberal party will disintegrate. (sub prediction; there may be a residual or rump "Liberal Party" attempting to appeal to centrist voters, but that part of the political spectrum will be occupied by the CPC for a long time to come....)

http://bctory.blogspot.com/2007/09/couldnt-have-said-it-better-myself



> Tuesday, September 18, 2007
> *The Liberal Road To Redemption*
> So: Quebec byelections. The Tories pummel the Bloc in Roberval, taking 59% of the vote and jump 12% to come in a close second in St-Hyacinthe. And Outremont? Well, let’s let Cherniak tell the story:
> 
> ...


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## Blindspot (20 Sep 2007)

Now if only Ontario would get the message.


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## vonGarvin (20 Sep 2007)

So, was this a "bi-election" or a byelection?   >
What I note:

The conservative candidate in that winning riding was the only candidate of the three winners to get over 50% 
The conservative candidate in the riding that the Bloc won was a very close second
The liberal election plan is coming together like a train wreck


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## GAP (20 Sep 2007)

Mortarman Rockpainter said:
			
		

> So, was this a "bi-election" or a byelection?   >
> What I note:
> 
> The conservative candidate in that winning riding was the only candidate of the three winners to get over 50%
> ...



It's been mentioned, but remember that about 40 of the Bloc riding's in the last election, lost out to Conservatives with a close second. 

It will be interesting to see how that translates the next time around.


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## IN HOC SIGNO (20 Sep 2007)

Very good blog that's quoted there. I'm in a school setting right now where a lot of the instructers are "liberal," civil servants. They tend to talk about Harper as a caricature..."oh he's mini-Bush." "He's anti-woman." "He's anti-Atlantic Canada." All stock phrases and mumbo jumbo which the left has managed to sell to those who are left leaners. I asked my teacher one day why she thought he was "mini-Bush" she replied that he is just aping Bush by buidling up the military and being in Afghanistan. I asked her if she realised that the Afghanistan mission was a UN sanctioned NATO mision which the Liberals signed us on for...she was dumb struck and hasn't said a word about the PM or the war since.
Odd isn't it that a woman teaching in a CF language school didn't know the origins of the mission?


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## vonGarvin (20 Sep 2007)

IN HOC SIGNO said:
			
		

> Odd isn't it that a woman teaching in a CF language school didn't know the origins of the mission?


Not that I expect every government employee to support the government in every one of its decisions, but one would expect government employees to be those other than sandal wearing granola munching neo-commies.

That's right, Neo-commie.   >


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## Flip (20 Sep 2007)

InHocSigno,

That's the one that bugs me most......."mini Bush"

That describes a refusal to think about Harper but it also describes
a refusal to consider GW on his merits.  -  talk about a prejudice.
Aren't liberals supposed to be the "open minded" set?
It tells me, "don't bother me with facts, I've made up my mind".

For the record, if someone has a comment about a policy or action, fine,
articulate that.  But I keep hearing nonsense about GWB and Harper.

My peev - I'm over it , I guess......


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## observor 69 (23 Sep 2007)

Rick Mercer's rant on Dion   ;D

http://www.cbc.ca/mercerreport/video_player.html?rant_mar13


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## GAP (23 Sep 2007)

Good link!!


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## Fishbone Jones (23 Sep 2007)

Flip said:
			
		

> InHocSigno,
> 
> That's the one that bugs me most......."mini Bush"
> 
> ...



Hence the bottom of my sig line.


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