# Taliban as strong as Karzai is weak



## GAP (12 Jun 2006)

President failing to contain threat, says Afghan politician

Matthew Fisher, National Post
Published: Monday, June 12, 2006 

http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/story.html?id=712cfcab-dd6e-4f29-9838-0f1b88c21bc9&p=1

"It's not that the Taliban is strong. It is that our government is weak," is how General Noorolhaq Olomi, who represents Kandahar in the Afghan Parliament, analyzed the recent surge in violence in the province where Canadian troops are stationed.
"The enemy is in groups of 10, 20, 100 and 500," said Olomi, who was the top Afghan official in Kandahar during the Soviet era. "There are not more than 1,000 of them in the south.
"The Taliban carry out suicide bombings and other terror on the roads, and fire some rockets. But these attacks really show weakness, not strength. They cannot confront regular forces."
Nevertheless, Olomi, who cuts a curious figure here because he speaks English and Russian, wears Western business garb and is a clean-shaven secularist, acknowledged that Islamic extremists have run amok in some parts of the immense district he represents.
"After 41/2 years, our people are going in one direction and the government in another," the long-time communist said.
"People want security, and they say that the government has given them none. There is no safety in the villages. If you support the government, the Taliban kill you. They even kill mullahs who support the government. So why should the people trust the government?"
Nevertheless, the security situation when he commanded an Afghan army corps when Moscow tried to run the country was "100, 1,000 times more dangerous than today. That was a real war."
Like most Afghans, Olomi blames Pakistan for the Afghan insurgency. "We know with certainty that the centres of al-Qaeda and the Taliban are in Pakistan, not Afghanistan. They get help, training and weapons there."
With 10,000 newly trained men in the Afghan security forces, plus the U.S.-led coalition, which includes Canada, in the southeast, and a NATO force in the north and west, Olomi wondered why "we have done nothing to keep an eye on the border or to seal it? The Taliban come and go freely across our borders."
As a self-described expert on the 1,600-kilometre frontier with Pakistan, Olomi asked rhetorically, "Why does Pakistan allow this?"
His explanation was that Pakistan was controlled by four groups -- the Musharraf military government, Pakistan's intelligence service, Islamic fundamentalists who have great influence in some regions, and the border tribes -- who all agree on one issue: "They do not want Afghanistan to have a strong government. They would really like us to be a province of Pakistan."
Afghan President Hamid Karzai has often made similar points about Pakistan, but Olomi blamed him for the government's precarious writ.
"Karzai has unfortunately counted more on the warlords than the Afghan people," Olomi said. "We have not developed strong parties and this created a chance for the warlords. Our President has warlords and jihadis for advisors. Everyone knows they are killing, drugging, bribing and selling narcotics. They control the Supreme Court.
"The insurgency can be stopped if Mr. Karzai changes and brings in qualified and honest people. But he has no idea how the people really feel. Let him teach at a university, not run a country."

Surprisingly, for someone who had close ties to Moscow and the Red Army for many years, Olomi has been a staunch backer of the U.S.-led coalition in Afghanistan.
"Everybody knows the best country in this struggle is the U.S.," he said. "There is no way they are going to leave us."
Still, he said the U.S. has made mistakes. The most grievous was allowing "warlords and jihadis to skip out" to Pakistan after defeating the Taliban regime in 2001.
As for the Canadians, who are in charge of coalition forces in Kandahar, Olomi said, "Whenever there is heavy fighting, people say it is the Americans, not Canadians. It's like when we speak of Pakistan, we don't differentiate between their various groups, we just say it's Pakistan.
"Let the Canadians, Dutch, British and Australian be here, but let us have a strong central government. If our people support the government, they will support you."
As for the Taliban, "they try to take power again, but this is not their time."


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## paracowboy (12 Jun 2006)

good dude. Got time for him.
And he's right.


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## Enzo (12 Jun 2006)

So, who else is heeding his views? What does Karzai intend to do to rectify this border situation? Is he in a position to do anything?


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## paracowboy (12 Jun 2006)

Enzo said:
			
		

> So, who else is heeding his views? What does Karzai intend to do to rectify this border situation? Is he in a position to do anything?


Karzai is in a very tight spot. He needed the support of the various warlords, because their individual armies were larger than the National one. With the DDR, and other programs disarming the illegal militias and thugs, his position gets more secure, but now the bad guys are in the government, and they still have a great deal of autonomy outside of Kabul.

Karzai cannot depend too greatly (or be seen to be, anyway) on the US alone, as his position becomes untenable. He doesn't have the "Muj creds" that many others (Dostum, for example) do, since he wasn't a player in the Soviet debacle, and didn't take part in the Civil War, either. He wasn't much of anything during the ouster of the Taliban.

He needs to take his message to the people, and try to make things better for them, and that's where we come in. As security gets beter, more Aid can get through. As there are more trained ANA and ANP on the streets and in the weeds, the thugs and bandits are reined in.

But, right now, he's got very little actual power. He's maneuvering, but it's gonna take time, and the various warlords are doing the same.

As for closing the border, he doesn't have the manpower. 

What I see, anyway. Anyone with more info can jump in and shoot me down.


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## GAP (25 Jun 2006)

http://www.strategypage.com/qnd/afghan/articles/20060625.aspx


Taliban Terror Tactics Backfire 
June 25, 2006: Battles with the Taliban have left 80 of the rebels dead in the last few days, and over 150 dead in the last two weeks. Afghan and Coalition dead have been much lower (a few dozen). While the Taliban claim to have over 10,000 armed men in action across southern Afghanistan, it is believed that there are only about 2,000 of them. Actually, there may now be less than that, since morale among the Taliban is getting shaky. Traditionally, Afghan warriors will simply go home if they feel their side has poor chances of success. This is how many Taliban gunmen are beginning to feel, as it becomes obvious that the Taliban tactics for the big 2006 offensive are not working. The groups of Taliban cannot stand up to Coalition firepower, and Afghan soldiers and police fight the Taliban on at least equal terms. Worse, many of the tribes in southern Afghanistan are actively opposing the Taliban, and Taliban terror tactics are not working to change minds. Most Taliban gunmen are in it for the money, but the Taliban isn't paying enough to justify the increased risks.

June 24, 2006: British troops have recruited and trained about a third of a 3,000 man tribal militia force in Helmand province, where the Taliban believe they have their best chance to establish a power base. Most of the tribal leaders of Helmand do not want this competition and are supporting government efforts to drive the Taliban out. 

June 23, 2006: The Taliban beheaded four men suspected of  reporting terrorist activity to the government. The Taliban must terrorize the population into keeping quiet, otherwise troops and police will eventually catch up with them. 

June 22, 2006: A bomb, attached to a fuel tanker truck, went off as the truck crossed the border from Pakistan, killing six people and destroying ten vehicles. Meanwhile, the Coalition search for groups of armed Taliban is succeeding, with several dozen Taliban being killed or captured each day. 

June 21, 2006: In the south, police caught a senior Taliban leader, Mullah Osman, and several associates. Osman had been behind several recent terror attacks.

June 20, 2006:  Unable to survive any battles with Afghan or Coalition troops, the Taliban have devoted most of their efforts to terrorizing their opponents among the Pushtun tribes of southern Afghanistan. This has resulted in the deaths of tribal elders, and tribesmen suspected of reporting on Taliban activities to the government. The Taliban is also playing up the traditional Afghan dislike for foreigners. This has caused president Karzai to openly call for U.S. and NATO troops to be more careful when it came to how they operated. In other words, try to avoid Afghan casualties, which the Taliban use to stoke the ancient Afghan enthusiasm for driving out foreigners, no matter what the foreigners are doing.


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