# October 2019:  Turkey into Syria to Deal With Kurds



## The Bread Guy (7 Oct 2019)

One NATO member steps aside while another NATO member vows to take on forces (including some Canadians) fighting ISIS ...


> The White House said Sunday that U.S. forces in northeast Syria will move aside and clear the way for an expected Turkish assault, essentially abandoning Kurdish fighters who fought alongside American forces in the yearslong battle to defeat Islamic State militants.
> 
> Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has threatened for months to launch the military operation across the border. He views the Kurdish forces as a threat to his country. Republicans and Democrats have warned that allowing the Turkish attack could lead to a massacre of the Kurds and send a troubling message to American allies across the globe.
> 
> ...


... with this from Turkish media:


> The U.S.-backed terrorist YPG/PKK forces in northern Syria deployed its members in Tal Abyad and Ras-al Ayn ahead of a potential military operation by Turkey and Free Syrian Army (FSA).
> 
> The YPG -- Syrian offshoot of the PKK terror group -- deployed Saturday night a group of Arab-origin members who were forcibly recruited in the regions of Tal Abyad, the northern city of Raqqah, and Ras-al Ayn, the northeastern city of Al-Hasakah, close to the Turkey-Syria border east of the Euphrates River in northern Syria.
> 
> ...


op:


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## Jarnhamar (7 Oct 2019)

> The White House said Sunday that U.S. forces in northeast Syria will move aside and clear the way for an expected Turkish assault, *essentially abandoning Kurdish fighters who fought alongside American forces* in the yearslong battle to defeat Islamic State militants.



Not the first time. Won't be the last time.  Not really unexpected when the boss is a business man through and through.


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## The Bread Guy (7 Oct 2019)

Jarnhamar said:
			
		

> Not the first time. Won't be the last time.


 :nod:


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## tomahawk6 (7 Oct 2019)

The latest challenge is to keep the Turks out of Kurdish areas of Syria as they seem to be straining at their leash.


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## The Bread Guy (7 Oct 2019)

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> The latest challenge is to keep the Turks out of Kurdish areas of Syria as they seem to be straining at their leash.


Problem is that Turkey considers some folks fighting ISIS (including forces where some Canadians are working) terrorists.

And it sounds like our NATO ally's  more than "straining @ the leash" at this point 

op:


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## The Bread Guy (7 Oct 2019)

Fabulous "Coles Notes" guide to the conflict via BBC.com ...


> *The Story in 100 Words*​
> Why is Turkey planning an assault?  One main reason: Turkey considers the biggest militia in the Kurdish-led alliance a terrorist group. It says it is an extension of a Kurdish rebel group fighting in Turkey.  Turkish leaders want a 32km (20-mile) deep "safe zone" along the Syrian side of the border clear of Kurdish fighters. They also hope to resettle up to 2 million Syrian refugees currently living in Turkey there.  The Kurdish-led alliance says it will defend its territory and that the US is "leaving the area to turn into a war zone" and risking the re-emergence of IS.
> 
> *The Story in 300 Words*​
> ...


The 800-word version is @ the link.


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## The Bread Guy (8 Oct 2019)

Jarnhamar said:
			
		

> Not the first time. Won't be the last time.


Picking up on your theme:  _*"For Kurds, US pull-back feels like being abandoned once more"*_


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## The Bread Guy (9 Oct 2019)

Just pulling Turkish invasion bits from other threads to avoid duplication of posts.

Here's more on Canadian fighters with the YPG speficially, and here's more on whazzup with those being held by the Kurds in Syria.

Army.ca Staff


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## The Bread Guy (9 Oct 2019)

Moving now ...

_*"Erdogan: Turkey launches offensive in northern Syria"*_ (Deutsche Welle)
_*"Turkey Begins Offensive to Take Out Kurds in Northern Syria"*_ (Voice of America)
_*"SDF says 'huge panic' sown as Turkey launches long-threatened push into Kurdish-controlled northeastern Syria ..."*_ (Al Jazeera - ongoing coverage/updates here)
_*"Turkey launches military operation in northern Syria"*_ (Reuters)
_*"Turkey launches anti-terror operation in northern Syria, Erdoğan announces"*_ (Turkish media)
_*"Turkey briefed NATO, UN, countries about Operation Peace Spring in N Syria, says Turkish National Defense Ministry"*_ (Turkish media)
_*"Justin Ling: Like the Americans, Canada is throwing the Kurds under the bus"*_ (commentary, _National Post_)


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## MilEME09 (9 Oct 2019)

And so the kurds, our biggest ally in fighting ISIS are left hung out to dry, my only hope is that we trained them well enough that they kick Turkey's ass, and send them packing home. It's dishonorable in my opinion, and lack morality, and the spin to stand up to Turkey to let the Kurds fight and die needlessly.


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## The Bread Guy (9 Oct 2019)

From the "can't do everything" file ...


> U.S.-backed Kurdish fighters have halted operations for now against Islamic State in Syria as Turkey launches a military offensive in Syria’s northeast, two U.S. officials and a Kurdish military source said on Wednesday.
> 
> “The SDF stopped the anti-ISIS operations because it’s impossible to carry out any operation while you are being threatened by a large army right on the northern border,” the Kurdish military source said.
> 
> ...


More @ link


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## The Bread Guy (9 Oct 2019)

And learning from other people's playbook, here's TUR's Pres announcing the campaign kick-off via Twitter ...


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## daftandbarmy (9 Oct 2019)

Shall be known as OP MISS MUFFET because, according to the Turks, there are too many Kurds in the way....


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## The Bread Guy (9 Oct 2019)

daftandbarmy said:
			
		

> Shall be known as OP MISS MUFFET because, according to the Turks, there are too many Kurds in the way....


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## The Bread Guy (9 Oct 2019)

And if you're more graphically inclined, this Twitter feed (linked to a site that is registered via a domain farm, but shares an exclusively pro-Turkish take on events) has this handy guide to the latest op - graphics attached.


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## CBH99 (9 Oct 2019)

Great...

So a fanatic group of truly evil sadists now gets a reprieve from NATO & US SOF operations because Turkey, our 'great ally' has decided their hatred for the Kurds outweighs their hatred for ISIS.

This is a group that has massacred entire families, engaged in genocide, taken thousands of young girls as sex slaves (how does that fit into a strict interpretation of religion again?) and even burned a pilot alive who was handcuffed in a cage & broadcast it live... they now get a reprieve from operations because a NATO country has decided their petty little feud with a local ethnic group needs to take precedence over the destruction of a group that doesn't even pretend not to be truly evil.


If NATO membership can't be reviewed from time to time, it really loses a lot of it's meaning.  F**k Turkey.


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## brihard (9 Oct 2019)

daftandbarmy said:
			
		

> Shall be known as OP MISS MUFFET because, according to the Turks, there are too many Kurds in the way....



How obscenely pleased with yourself are you for thinking that groaner up?


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## daftandbarmy (9 Oct 2019)

Brihard said:
			
		

> How obscenely pleased with yourself are you for thinking that groaner up?



With all due respect to the human tragedy no doubt unfolding as we speak....

I can't take 100% credit for it as I'm pretty sure that I heard it somewhere before. But, in my own insignificant little orbit I believe that I have achieved something like the apogee of Dad-joke-dom and, in a small way, when my time comes, I can now die a little happier.


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## CBH99 (9 Oct 2019)

This really is an age thing...

Growing up, my dad always had the WORST groaner jokes.  I'd just look at him, busting a gut over his own joke, and wonder about his mental health  ???

Now, as I get older, I'm starting to appreciate the simplicity & self reward of making other people cringe.  Nicely done D&B    :facepalm:


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## The Bread Guy (9 Oct 2019)

CBH99 said:
			
		

> So a fanatic group of truly evil sadists now gets a reprieve from NATO & US SOF operations because Turkey, our 'great ally' has decided their hatred for the Kurds outweighs their hatred for ISIS.


Here's a bit of ... rationale from #POTUS45 over pulling out of helping the Kurds:  _"They didn't help us in the Second World War; they didn't help us with Normandy."_


Also, a few reference maps via BBC and the Kurdish Rojava Information Centre Twitter feed ...


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## tomahawk6 (10 Oct 2019)

I do not support this policy. It sends a bad message to our poyential allies and what happens to the 10000prisoners being held by the Kurds ? Either the prisoners get executed or they are released to fight again.


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## The Bread Guy (10 Oct 2019)

A bit of the latest ...

_*"Where is Trump getting his ideas about Syria?"*_ (Commentary, Kurdish media)
_*"US defeated Daesh 'with many allies': Pompeo* -- Ankara has terrorist threat to their south, says top US diplomat amid Turkish operation against PKK terrorism on its border ..."_ (Turkish media)
_*"Here are four myths about the YPG/PKK that have become increasingly widespread as Turkey carries out #OperationPeaceSpring in northern Syria"*_ (video, Turkish media Twitter feed)1
_*"Turkish police investigate Kurdish leaders, fire water cannon at protesters"*_ (Reuters)2
_*"ISIS has a plan to bust out 70,000 supporters from Kurdish jails now that the US has abandoned the area to the Turkish military"*_ (Business Insider)
_*"Turkey's Erdogan warns of flooding Europe with Syrian refugees if EU calls assault an 'invasion' "*_ (FOX News)
_*"Turkey Syria offensive: Will Islamic State re-emerge?"*_ (BBC)

1 - "Myths" that are "clarified" by TUR media include "Turkey is fighting Kurds," "YPG defeated Daesh," "Turkey wants to occupy Syria," and "YPG is committed to human rights".
2 - At least some of these could be the same Turkish Kurds the video above says are "integrated citizens of the republic."


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## The Bread Guy (10 Oct 2019)

And (satirical?) Duffleblog is rarely far behind  ;D

*"U.S. tells Kurds it’s just going out for a pack of cigarettes"*


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## Jarnhamar (10 Oct 2019)

[quote author=tomahawk6] It sends a bad message to our poyential allies[/quote]
That's an understatement.




> and what happens to the 10000prisoners being held by the Kurds ?



Release them and point them in Turkeys direction.


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## daftandbarmy (10 Oct 2019)

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> I do not support this policy. It sends a bad message to our poyential allies and what happens to the 10000prisoners being held by the Kurds ? Either the prisoners get executed or they are released to fight again.



If I was a Kurd I'd give them all one way tickets to New York, and book them into Trump Towers


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## Jarnhamar (10 Oct 2019)

daftandbarmy said:
			
		

> If I was a Kurd I'd give them all one way tickets to New York, and book them into Trump Towers



You're a brilliant man. :nod:


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## daftandbarmy (10 Oct 2019)

Jarnhamar said:
			
		

> You're a brilliant man. :nod:



Please tell my kids that....


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## brihard (10 Oct 2019)

Duffelblog is predictably killing it on this one. (NSFW)

Syrian Kurds: If you’re going to **** us, could you at least buy us dinner?

And

U.S. tells Kurds it’s just going out for a pack of cigarettes


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## mariomike (10 Oct 2019)

He said, "They didn't help us in the Second World War. They didn't help us with Normandy, as an example."

I don't know how they could have, other than as individuals, because the Kurds were - and are - stateless.  

In any case, the United States today is friendly with Germany, Japan and Italy.

Saw this in the New York Times today,


> Others questioned whether any member of the Trump family had fought for the United States during World War II and noted that during the Vietnam War, the president received five draft deferments.
> https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/10/world/middleeast/trump-kurds-normandy.html



The NYT also posted this in the same article,


> Who would Donald Trump have supported in World War Two or would this draft-dodger have sat the war out as a non participant!
> https://twitter.com/BarrySheerman/status/1182192987083825152


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## Jarnhamar (10 Oct 2019)

mariomike said:
			
		

> He said, "They didn't help us in the Second World War. They didn't help us with Normandy, as an example."



That comment made me want to Spartan kick him. What an absolutely obnoxious shit head thing to say. 

You're right again, he didn't serve in WW2, Korea, Vietnam, either gulf wars. Who on earth is he to make a comment like that? Just brutal.

That comment put me square in the GTFO camp.


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## The Bread Guy (10 Oct 2019)

Jarnhamar said:
			
		

> That comment made me want to Spartan kick him. What an absolutely obnoxious shit head thing to say.


Whenever he talks about NATO not pulling it's weight, he seems to forget all the NATO folks who died in Afghanistan & Iraq, too, so sadly, it's not the first time he appears to take allies for granted. 

Meanwhile, a few recent tidbits ...

_*"Divided UN fails to agree on Turkey’s offensive in Syria"*_ (Associated Press)
_*"Syria pullout may trigger 'complete reversal' of U.S. gains: Former intel officer who interrogated ISIS leader"*_ (Fox News)
_*"Norway suspends arms sales to Turkey over Syria invasion"*_ (The Hill)
_*"Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatened to send the refugees to Europe instead if it characterised the Turkish offensive as an occupation."*_ (BBC via YouTube)
_*" Turkish soldier martyred* in northern Syria operation"*_ (Turkish media)
* - Emphasis mine.


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## The Bread Guy (10 Oct 2019)

And one more, from the "child kills both parents & asks judge for mercy because he's an orphan" file ...


> Turkey's assault on Syrian Kurdish forces has not breached a red line declared by President Donald Trump, a US official said Thursday, as he added that Washington wanted to broker a ceasefire.
> 
> (...)
> 
> ...



* - edited to add:  In fairness, here's the full quote from a Whitehouse scrum ...


> ... we have no soldiers in Syria. We've won. We've beat ISIS. And we've beat them badly and decisively. We have no soldiers.
> 
> The last thing I want to do is bring thousands and thousands of soldiers in and defeat everybody again. We've already done that.
> 
> So what we have is really two choices: You have the choice of bringing in the military and defeating everybody again, or you have the choice of financially doing some very strong things to Turkey so that they take it a little bit easy on, really, competition that is -- I don't think it's being fairly treated in many ways, okay? We have a very good relationship with the Kurds. Or we can mediate. I hope we can mediate, John. I hope we can mediate ...


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## tomahawk6 (11 Oct 2019)

Maybe we could buy Turkey off with arms and cash rather than sanctions ?


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## Colin Parkinson (11 Oct 2019)

Jarnhamar said:
			
		

> That comment made me want to Spartan kick him. What an absolutely obnoxious crap head thing to say.
> 
> You're right again, he didn't serve in WW2, Korea, Vietnam, either gulf wars. Who on earth is he to make a comment like that? Just brutal.
> 
> That comment put me square in the GTFO camp.



This is the article he is poorly quoting, although i don't agree completely with it either. https://townhall.com/columnists/kurtschlichter/2019/10/08/critics-aghast-as-trump-keeps-word-about-no-more-wars-n2554328


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## tomahawk6 (11 Oct 2019)

I am deeply troubled by this decision and I see Jarod Kushner and like minded people in the White House behind this. I suspect that is why Matis left. Kushner lacks experience in the military-political sphere. Well Obama lacked experience and his foreign policy was a failure. You can trust the Israelis but you cant trust Erdogen I know I dont. But then I am just an arm chair strategist now. ;D


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## The Bread Guy (11 Oct 2019)

Colin P said:
			
		

> This is the article he is poorly quoting, although i don't agree completely with it either. https://townhall.com/columnists/kurtschlichter/2019/10/08/critics-aghast-as-trump-keeps-word-about-no-more-wars-n2554328


Thanks for this.  I note the author also takes the tack used by Turkish media about "we're not _really_ fighting the KURD Kurds ..." too ...


> ... all Kurds are not equal. The PKK – the Kurdistan Workers' Party – are a bunch of commie terrorists who have been fighting the Turks for a long time. Those reds are no friends of ours, and it’s their antics that seem to be inspiring the Turkish campaign ...


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## The Bread Guy (11 Oct 2019)

P.S. -- A reminder (with thanks to Ted Campbell for pointing this out in one of his latest pieces) ...


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## daftandbarmy (11 Oct 2019)

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> *You can trust the Israelis *but you cant trust Erdogen I know I dont. But then I am just an an chair strategist now. ;D



Having met a few guys in the 6th Airborne Division who fought against the Irgun & Stern gangs post-WW2, as well as a couple of UN Canadians who were blown up by them in the Sinai, I'd prefer to continue to view them as just another bunch of folks in the middle east who should be viewed with polite suspicion from a safe distance.


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## Journeyman (11 Oct 2019)

daftandbarmy said:
			
		

> I'd prefer to continue to view them as just another bunch of folks in the middle east who should be viewed with polite suspicion from a safe distance.








Well, Trump has already been bought off by Netanyahu's Potemkin village, so no anti-Israeli suspicion allowed.  Nothing to see here; move along.


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## Czech_pivo (11 Oct 2019)

daftandbarmy said:
			
		

> Having met a few guys in the 6th Airborne Division who fought against the Irgun & Stern gangs post-WW2, as well as a couple of UN Canadians who were blown up by them in the Sinai, I'd prefer to continue to view them as just another bunch of folks in the middle east who should be viewed with polite suspicion from a safe distance.



Let's not forget how many times our passports have been abused around the world.


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## Blackadder1916 (11 Oct 2019)

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> . . .  You can trust the Israelis . . .



There are probably a couple hundred former US sailors who may disagree with you.

http://www.gtr5.com/


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## tomahawk6 (11 Oct 2019)

Why the hate ?


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## CBH99 (11 Oct 2019)

Not hate.  But not unconditional support either.

It was Israel who sank a US warship, deliberately.  And much more recently, it was Israel who shelled UN observation posts, killing a Canadian among others.




But between Israel and Turkey, Israel absolutely is the better choice between the two - I think most people would agree with you on that.


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## Cloud Cover (11 Oct 2019)

Turkey Bombs US Special Forces: https://nationalpost.com/news/world/report-turkey-has-just-bombed-u-s-special-forces-in-syria


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## Remius (11 Oct 2019)

Cloud Cover said:
			
		

> Turkey Bombs US Special Forces: https://nationalpost.com/news/world/report-turkey-has-just-bombed-u-s-special-forces-in-syria




If they were SEALS or Green Berets then it’s ok.  Neither unit were at the Normandy invasion to help out.


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## Retired AF Guy (11 Oct 2019)

CBH99 said:
			
		

> Not hate.  But not unconditional support either.
> 
> It was Israel who sank a US warship, deliberately.



If you are talking about the USS Liberty she wasn't sunk, but shot to pieces and 34 people killed. And you are right, it was deliberate.


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## Jarnhamar (11 Oct 2019)

Retired AF Guy said:
			
		

> If you are talking about the USS Liberty she wasn't sunk, but shot to pieces and 34 people killed. And you are right, it was deliberate.



Thats messed up. Seems Israel does whatever it wants.


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## BDTyre (11 Oct 2019)

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> P.S. -- A reminder (with thanks to Ted Campbell for pointing this out in one of his latest pieces) ...



Yeah, but they didn't help out at NORMANDY....  :tsktsk:


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## mariomike (11 Oct 2019)

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> (with thanks to Ted Campbell for pointing this out in one of his latest pieces) ...



He had this to say,



> Donald Trump is a disgrace.
> 
> He is an intellectually weak bully who, almost instinctively, sides with autocrats against freedom fighters.


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## Colin Parkinson (11 Oct 2019)

CanadianTire said:
			
		

> Yeah, but they didn't help out at NORMANDY....  :tsktsk:



Neither did KSA, hmmm wonder if they are worried?


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## Remius (11 Oct 2019)

Not sure how I feel about this.  On one hand that guy might be dead.  On the other he may have escaped.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/jack-letts-syria-turkey-artillery-1.5319047


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## The Bread Guy (11 Oct 2019)

A few of the latest tidbits - highlights mine ...

_*"Isis militants break out of prison in Syria after bombing by Turkey"*_ (_The Independent_ - UK)
*"Fighting off a “genocidal attack” by Turkey, a spokesperson for the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) said they can no longer be responsible for the ticking time bomb that is the thousands of Islamic State (ISIS) militants and their supporters held in Kurdish jails.*_  “We are currently subject to a genocidal attack. There is a project to make a demographic change and eradicate Kurds. Therefore, our first duty is the protection of our people, border and soil,” head of the SDF press office Mustafa Bali told Rudaw in Hasaka, northern Syria.  “All our forces are focusing on this now. Our prisons, which have about 12,000 ISIS gangs, and camps, which have more than 90,000 families of ISIS fighters and migrants, are like detonated bombs. We do not know when they will explode. However, this is no longer our responsibility,” he said ..."__ (Kurdish media)
[*]*"An explosion that may have been caused by Turkish artillery struck near a U.S. military outpost in northern Syria on Friday, but no U.S. personnel were reported hurt, U.S. officials said, an incident that highlights the risks to U.S. troops as Turkey wages an offensive in the region ..."* (Reuters)
[*]*"Turkey’s National Defense Ministry on Friday rejected claims that the Turkish army targeted a U.S. observation post east of the Euphrates in northern Syria amid its counter-terror operation.*  “It is out of the question that any fire targeted the U.S.’s observation post,” the ministry said in a written statement.  Stating that every kind of measure was being taken in order not to harm the U.S. base, it said “fire was halted as a precautionary measure when the U.S. conveyed its concerns.”  "It is out of the question to target any U.S. and coalition forces,” it stressed ..." (Turkish media)
[*]*"Need to de-escalate situation in northeast Syria before it's 'irreparable': Pentagon"* (Reuters)
[*]*"Turkey Syria offensive: 100,000 flee homes as assault continues"* (BBC)
[*]*"Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Friday announced that President Trump will sign an executive order expanding the administration's ability to impose sanctions on Turkish officials as the president faces growing criticism over his decision to pull U.S. forces out of northern Syria.*  Mnuchin said that the executive order does not itself contain new sanctions, but gives Trump the authority to enact them ..." (thehill.com)
[*]*"US: “We will not abandon the Kurds;” calls on Turkey to stop attack in Syria; but is rebuffed by Erdogan"* (Kurdish media)
[*]*"A video viewed 17,000 times claims to show Kurdish fighters shooting and destroying Turkish tanks in the northern Syrian city of Afrin. However, the images actually show a spectacular gun show that takes place biannually in the US state of Kentucky ..."* (Agence France-Presse fact checking site)_


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## The Bread Guy (12 Oct 2019)

A few update tidbits ...

_*"Kurds Could Switch Priority from Guarding IS Prisoners1 to Defending People"*_ (Kurdish media)
_*"Kurdistan Region officials call on Russia to protect Kurds in northern Syria"*_ (Kurdish media)
_*" Syria must be freed from foreign military presence: Putin"*_ (Reuters)
_*" Turkey's Syria offensive an 'invasion' - Arab League secretary general"*_ (Reuters)
_*" Turkey condemns Arab League chief’s remarks"*_ (Turkish media)
_*" Information regarding the attacks by the invading Turkish army on Northern Syria on October 11th."*_ (Syrian Democratic Forces info-machine)
_*" YPG/PKK committed war crimes in Syria: Turkish official"*_ (Turkish media)
_*"Germany to curb arms sales to Turkey over Syria operation"*_ (politico.eu)
1 - Appears to be a _bit_ of a softening of the "they're not ours anymore" from the SDF spokesperson quoted yesterday.


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## CBH99 (13 Oct 2019)

Turkey...

While the situation in Syria is no doubt complicated in that various players & their proxies are all vying for influence, and the general security situation sucks...

You are deploying state-commanded armed forces into the sovereign territory of another legally recognized state without their consent.  That is literally a textbook definition of invasion.  



The invasion may be limited in scope.  

It may have the intention of simply creating a buffer zone close to your own border to better protect your border from what you perceive to be a threat.

It may not be that your intention is the conquest and pillaging of the country your invading.

It may be that the deployment is intended to be short lived, with certain objectives to be accomplished.



BUT...you are deploying military forces across the border into another legally recognized country without their permission.  It's an invasion.  (Whether you like the term or not.)
*

noun
noun: invasion; plural noun: invasions

    an instancen of invading a country or region with an armed force.
    "in 1546 England had to be defended from invasion"
*


BTW... did Turkey seriously just threaten the EU indirectly with terrorism?  If the EU calls it an invasion, then Turkey will start allowing thousands of unchecked refugees into Europe, including possible ISIS fighters currently being held in camps?  The same camps the Kurds can't control anymore, because they are busy defending themselves against this "non-invasion" of theirs?  

The same Turkey that purchased oil from ISIS, supplied them with weapons, and didn't bother to engage them militarily despite the fact that ISIS was quickly approaching their borders?  They decided, instead, to engage the Kurds - who WERE defending that territory against ISIS.


Sorry for the rant.  Just wow...


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## The Bread Guy (13 Oct 2019)

Some of the latest ...

_*"Kurdish-led authority: 785 ISIS-affiliated foreigners escaped Syria camp"*_ (Kurdish media)
_*"Families of IS fighters in Syria hope Turkish offensive offers way out"*_ (Euronews)
_*"James Mattis says Trump's troop pullout has led to 'disarray' in Syria"*_ (The Guardian)
_*"Trump sends $50 million in emergency financial assistance to Syria"*_ (CBS News)
_*"SDF demands no-fly zone for 'fair war with Turkey' "*_ (Kurdish media)
_*"Turkey's Proxy Forces Block Exit Road for Civilians in Northern Syrian Town"*_ (Kurdish media)
_*"Syrian gov't rules out communication with Kurdish forces amid Turkish assault"*_ (CHN state media)
_*"Kurdish politician among nine civilians shot dead by pro-Turkey forces in Syria"*_ (The Guardian)
_*"Turkish allies 'execute' politician and 8 civilians in northeast Syria"*_ (UAE media)
_*"Pakistan supports Turkey’s offensive against Syrian Kurds"*_ (Kurdish media)
_*"France says suspends weapons sales to Turkey"*_ (Kurdish media)
_*"480 terrorists 'neutralized' by Turkey's anti-terror op"*_ (Turkish media)
_*"Terror supporters continue anti-Turkey campaign"*_ (Turkish media)


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## Jarnhamar (13 Oct 2019)

Sounds like ethnic cleansing.


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## The Bread Guy (13 Oct 2019)

Jarnhamar said:
			
		

> Sounds like ethnic cleansing.


No, no, no, no -- the Turks say they're not even fighting Kurds, so how can it be _ethnic_ cleansing? #TurkishNewsSpeak


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## The Bread Guy (13 Oct 2019)

Another reference map attached (from the Congressional Research Service's _"Turkish Incursion into Syria: U.S. Policy Implications"_ dated 11 Oct 2019 - more here).

This opinion piece from the Institute for the Study of War, shared under the Fair Dealings provisions of the _Copyright Act_ ...


> The United States made a deliberate choice to depart from Syria.  America will pay a heavy price for this unforced error.
> 
> The United States has lost its defeat mechanism against the Islamic State. The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) were not the original counter-terrorism partner of choice. It took years for the U.S. to realize that the SDF were the only capable partners. They will not partner with us again. This betrayal has burned that bridge to ashes. It also serves as a warning for any future counterterrorism partner to contemplate – the U.S. will not have your back in the end.
> 
> ...


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## tomahawk6 (13 Oct 2019)

The President is taking alot of political heat from the Senate that he doesnt need. This decision IMO is a disaster and there may not be the means to put the genie back into the bottle. The Rurks have the S400 in place and we might have ro face Turkish patrot batteries. I am not sure about sanctions how quickly they could be in place. Maybe Trump may change policy. The Kurds now have sided with Assads government. What a mess.


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## brihard (13 Oct 2019)

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> The President is taking alot of political heat from the Senate that he doesnt need. This decision IMO is a disaster and there may not be the means to put the genie back into the bottle. The Rurks have the S400 in place and we might have ro face Turkish patrot batteries. I am not sure about sanctions how quickly they could be in place. Maybe Trump may change policy. The Kurds now have sided with Assads government. What a mess.



Right. Sanctions against a NATO member. One which holds the Bosphorous strait and the key to the Black Sea. One which is a pretty key piece of real estate for supporting NATO operations in southeastern Europe and the Middle East.

Can this be cleaned up? Maybe. It would have been far less messy to simply not stomp on the bag of dog crap in the first place.


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## tomahawk6 (13 Oct 2019)

Assad invited back into Kurd territory which will probably mean entry to Russian and Iranian forces.

https://www.stripes.com/u-s-allied-kurds-strike-deal-to-bring-assad-s-syrian-troops-back-into-kurdish-areas-1.602928


----------



## daftandbarmy (13 Oct 2019)

And there's the rub...

'I have established the republic. But today it is not clear whether the form of government is a republic, a dictatorship, or personal rule.'

Mustafa Kemal Ataturk


----------



## The Bread Guy (14 Oct 2019)

Some of the latest ....

_*"Kurdish official: deal with Damascus covers deployment, political talks later"*_ (Kurdish media)
_*"SDF-Damascus Deal Covers Military Affairs Only: Kurdish Official"*_ (Kurdish media)
_*"Kurds Strike Deal with Putin and Assad in Syria: 'We Had to Choose Between Compromises and the Genocide of our People' "*_ (Newsweek)
_*"Assad troops enter north-east Syria after Russia-backed deal with Kurds "*_ (The Telegraph - UK)
_*"Turkish regime continues aggression, launches offensive on towns in Hasaka countryside"*_ (SYR state media)
_*"Turkey-backed forces seize control of Syrian border town as offensive continues"*_ (Kurdish media)
_*"Russian Defense Ministry denies reports of Russian military targeting Syrian hospitals"*_ (RUS state media)
_*"Syrian army begins to move troops to 'confront' Turkey in northern Syria: state media"*_ (Reuters)
_*"Assad Sends Syrian Troops North as Turkish Offensive Escalates"*_ (Bloomberg)
_*"... Europe had a chance to get their ISIS prisoners, but didn’t want the cost. “Let the USA pay,” they said... ....Kurds may be releasing some to get us involved. Easily recaptured by Turkey or European Nations from where many came, but they should move quickly ..."*_ (@RealDonaldTrump Twitter feed)
_*"Trump Says ‘Ready to Go’ on Turkey Sanctions as Troops Leave"*_ (Bloomberg)
_*"US rules out confrontation with 'NATO member Turkey'* -- Trump disregards calls to side with PKK/YPG terror group against NATO member Turkey ..." _ (Turkish media)
_*"Turkey's Syria advance leaves Europe with foreign fighter dilemma"*_ (Reuters)
_*"Turkey's relationship with NATO tested over Syria operation"*_ (Al Jazeera)


----------



## The Bread Guy (14 Oct 2019)

Point:


			
				mariomike said:
			
		

> He said, "They didn't help us in the Second World War. They didn't help us with Normandy, as an example."


Counterpoint, from Kurdish media:
_*"Kurdish WWII veterans: Trump wasn’t born when we fought the Nazis"*_


----------



## The Bread Guy (14 Oct 2019)

Some of the latest ...

_*"Analysis: IS attacks in Iraq drop as group focuses on Syria"*_ (BBC Monitoring)
_*"Trump authorizes sanctions on Turkey as Syria conflict intensifies – live"*_ (The Guardian - note:  story getting refreshed constantly, so headline may change by the time you check it out)
_*"Treasury Designates Turkish Ministries and Senior Officials in Response to Military Action in Syria"*_ (USA Treasury info-machine)
_*" I will soon be issuing an Executive Order authorizing the imposition of sanctions against current and former officials of the Government of Turkey and any persons contributing to Turkey’s destabilizing actions in northeast Syria. Likewise, the steel tariffs will be increased back up to 50 percent, the level prior to reduction in May. The United States will also immediately stop negotiations, being led by the Department of Commerce, with respect to a $100 billion trade deal with Turkey ..."*_ (Whitehouse info-machine)
_*"Despite the opposition and repeated warnings from the United States and the international community, Turkish President Erdogan ordered a unilateral invasion of northern Syria that has resulted in widespread casualties, refugees, destruction, insecurity, and a growing threat to U.S. military forces. *  This unacceptable incursion has also undermined the successful multinational "Defeat ISIS" mission in Syria, and resulted in the release of many dangerous ISIS detainees.  Due to Turkey's irresponsible actions, the risk to U.S. forces in northeast Syria has reached an unacceptable level.  We are also at risk of being engulfed in a broader conflict.  Therefore, at the President's direction, the Department of Defense is executing a deliberate withdrawal of U.S. military personnel from northeast Syria.  Turkey's unilateral action was unnecessary and impulsive.  President Erdogan bears full responsibility for its consequences, to include a potential ISIS resurgence, possible war crimes, and a growing humanitarian crisis.  The bilateral relationship between our two countries has also been damaged ..." _ ("Statement by Secretary of Defense Dr. Mark T. Esper Regarding Turkey, Syria Border Actions")
_*"Deal for Syrian Army entry not for conflict areas, only for ‘border line’: senior Kurdish leader"*_ (Kurdish media)
_*" Turkey on Monday again rejected the “false equation” of Syrian Kurds with the terrorist group PKK and its Syrian offshoot, the YPG/PYD, currently the target of a Turkish anti-terror operation in northern Syria ..."*_ (Turkish government info-machine)
_*"Smear campaign of ABC News against Turkey exposed* -- Main stream media in US deliberately misleads its audience by using unrelated false videos to attack Turkey's image ..." _ (Turkish media)
_*"France says securing military in Syria as U.S. begins withdrawal"*_ (Reuters)
_*"Russian president says all illegal forces must leave Syria amidst Kurdish-Damascus deal"*_ (Kurdish media)
_*"Putin’s Indifference to the Turkish Offensive in Syria"*_ (Jamestown Foundation think tank)
_*"Calling for Immediate De-escalation in North-East Syria, Secretary-General Urges Parties to Show Restraint, Protect Civilians"*_ (United Nations info-machine)
_*"US forces reportedly leave dozens of 'high value' ISIS prisoners behind as they begin to pull out of northern Syria"*_ (businessinsider.com)


----------



## The Bread Guy (15 Oct 2019)

Some of the latest ...

_*"Islamic State steps up attacks as Turkish army lays waste to northern Syria"*_ (Kurdish media)
_*"Send Peshmerga (from Iraq) to northeast Syria to back up SDF: Kurdish MPs"*_ (Kurdish media)
_*"Turkey to continue Syria offensive 'until terrorists eliminated' "*_ (Al Jazeera English)
_*"Canada is the latest nation to halt arms sales to Turkey amid an ongoing military operation against Kurdish forces in northern Syria. *  A spokesperson for Global Affairs Canada said in a statement that Turkey’s unilateral military action “risks undermining the stability of an already-fragile region.”  It added that the military operation would worsen the humanitarian situation and “[roll] back progress achieved by the Global Coalition Against Da’esh, of which Turkey is a member,” using the Arabic term for the so-called Islamic State …" _ (Kurdish media)	
_*"UK Suspends Arms Sales to Turkey over Syria Offensive"*_ (Kurdish media)
_*"UK reviewing defense exports to Turkey"*_ (Turkish media)
_*"Norway against suspending Turkey from NATO"*_ (Turkish media)
_*"Turkic Council supports Turkey’s anti-terror operation"*_ (Turkish government info-machine)
_*"Turkey:Opposition party backs continuation of Syria op."*_ (Turkish media)
_*"Countries 'should either join Turkey or accept refugees' – Peace Spring"*_ (Turkish media)
_*".... the President spoke (yesterday) to both General Mazloum and President Erdoğan. He is fully engaged in the developments in Northeast Syria. And we all firmly believe that the United States is the only party with the gravitas to arbitrate with both sides ... He signed an executive order authorizing the imposition of sanctions against current and former officials of the government of Turkey and any person contributing to Turkey’s destabilizing actions in Northeast Syria ..."*_ (White House briefing transcript)
_*"After defeating 100% of the ISIS Caliphate, I largely moved our troops out of Syria. Let Syria and Assad protect the Kurds and fight Turkey for their own land ..."*_ (@RealDonaldTrump Twitter post)
_*"Let ‘Napoleon Bonaparte’ rescue Syrian Kurds, Trump says"*_ (Kurdish media)
_*"Trump speaks with Gen. Mazloum; calls for Syrian ceasefire; imposes sanctions on Turkey"*_ (Kurdish media)


----------



## Colin Parkinson (15 Oct 2019)

and how much has Canada sold to Turkey lately?


----------



## The Bread Guy (15 Oct 2019)

Colin P said:
			
		

> and how much has Canada sold to Turkey lately?


Just under $116M in 2018 according to the latest figures shared this past June, most of it imaging, fire control and other electronic equipment according to the second detailed breakdown (codes here).


----------



## daftandbarmy (15 Oct 2019)

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Just under $116M in 2018 according to the latest figures shared this past June, most of it imaging, fire control and other electronic equipment according to the second detailed breakdown (codes here).



(Arms dealer hat on) Looks like they could use some new tanks. The M-60 is soooo 'Cold War' era  (Arms dealer hat off).


----------



## Jarnhamar (15 Oct 2019)

Trump wants to pull Americans out of the middle east so is withdrawing 1000 soldiers from Syria only to turn around and send 2800 soldiers to Saudi Arabia.

 :not-again:


----------



## MarkOttawa (15 Oct 2019)

There is also the potentially very scary matter of US B61 nukes at Incirlik AFB in Turkey--excerpts from major piece (further links at original0:



> U.S. Reviewing Options For Pulling Nuclear Bombs Out Of Turkey, Here's How They Might Do It
> _The rapidly evolving crisis in Syria may prompt the U.S. to finally remove its nuclear stockpile from Turkey, a move that some say is long overdue._
> 
> The U.S. government is reportedly examining multiple plans for how it might remove approximately 50 B61 nuclear gravity bombs it keeps in ready storage at the American-operated portion of Turkey's Incirlik Air Base...
> ...



Mark
Ottawa


----------



## tomahawk6 (15 Oct 2019)

Bring those nuke's back to the US.


----------



## Underway (15 Oct 2019)

Brihard said:
			
		

> Right. Sanctions against a NATO member. One which holds the Bosphorous strait and the key to the Black Sea. One which is a pretty key piece of real estate for supporting NATO operations in southeastern Europe and the Middle East.




The preamble to the NATO agreement


> The Parties to this Treaty reaffirm their faith in the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations and their desire to live in peace with all peoples and all governments.
> They are determined to safeguard the freedom, common heritage and civilisation of their peoples, _founded on the principles of democracy, individual liberty and the rule of law_. They seek to _promote stability and well-being in the North Atlantic area_.
> They are resolved to unite their efforts for collective defence and for the preservation of peace and security. They therefore agree to this North Atlantic Treaty :


The portions in yellow are my arguments.

Essentially my argument for years was that Turkey should not be part of NATO.  They are not democratic and are not required for the security of the North Atlantic area.  Russia is a backwater with a GDP less than Canada's, a massive VD health crisis and a collapsing population. They can easily be contained by the EU even without Turkey's help.  

The Bosphorus and Black Sea are not the strategic panacea that they once were.  Kick Turkey out of NATO. They should have been evicted years ago.


----------



## daftandbarmy (15 Oct 2019)

Underway said:
			
		

> The preamble to the NATO agreementThe portions in yellow are my arguments.
> 
> Essentially my argument for years was that Turkey should not be part of NATO.  They are not democratic and are not required for the security of the North Atlantic area.  Russia is a backwater with a GDP less than Canada's, a massive VD health crisis and a collapsing population. They can easily be contained by the EU even without Turkey's help.
> 
> The Bosphorus and Black Sea are not the strategic panacea that they once were.  Kick Turkey out of NATO. They should have been evicted years ago.



And not because, for example, they invaded another NATO country in 1974 and still occupy part of it?


----------



## The Bread Guy (15 Oct 2019)

From someone's who's been there ...


> A Newfoundland navy veteran who fought ISIS in Syria fears for Kurdish forces in the region following the withdrawal of U.S. troops.
> 
> "ISIS can see what's happening. They can see that there's been a significant shift in the situation with the Americans pulling out," former leading seaman Michael Kennedy told CBC News.
> 
> ...


----------



## MilEME09 (15 Oct 2019)

daftandbarmy said:
			
		

> And not because, for example, they invaded another NATO country in 1974 and still occupy part of it?



Kick them out, invoke article 7? Seriously someone explain to me why NATO has not given them the boot, especially after initial signs are showing they deliberately targeted a US position with arty in Syria.


----------



## The Bread Guy (15 Oct 2019)

Some of the latest ...

_*"As Syria plunges deeper into chaos, all sides are spinning like crazy to win the propaganda war"*_ (Task & Purpose blog)
_*"US Delegation Heading to Turkey to Push for Syria Cease-fire"*_ (Voice of America)
_*" Russia Moves to Fill Void Left by US in Northern Syria"*_ (Associated Press)
_*"Russia Troops Patrol Between Turkish and Syrian Forces, Filling an American Void"*_ (_NY Times_) 
_*"Kurds had back channel open to Syria, Russia over fears of U.S. pullout: officials"*_ (Associated Press)
_*"Kremlin envoy calls Turkish military operation in Syria 'unacceptable' "*_ (Reuters)
_*"Kremlin confident that Turkey will conclude Syria operation soon"*_ (UKR media)
_*"Lawmakers Push Back Against Trump's Moves To Withdraw U.S. Troops From Syria"*_ (National Public Radio)
_*"391 PKK, Daesh terror suspects detained in Turkey"*_ (Turkish media)
_*" Operations deal blow to PKK drug trade"*_ (Turkish media)
_*"Money and Hatred for the Kurds Drives Turkey's Syrian Fighters"*_ (Time)
_*" Russians held captive in Kurdish camp for ISIS supporters ask Russia for help"*_ (UKR media, quoting RUS media)
_*"IOM: First Families Cross into Iraq After Crisis in North Eastern Syria"*_ (International Organization for Migration, UN NGO)


----------



## PPCLI Guy (15 Oct 2019)

MilEME09 said:
			
		

> Seriously *someone explain to me *why NATO has not given them the boot, especially after initial signs are showing they deliberately targeted a US position with arty in Syria.



I did some exhaustive and exhausting research for you...in 15 seconds:

https://www.google.com/search?safe=active&rlz=1C1CHBF_enCA850CA850&sxsrf=ACYBGNTEfidKwOjg1yRJnCbTAjw68Q4SuA%3A1571185848140&ei=uGSmXZyRCInc5gLcv4y4Ag&q=why+should+turkey+be+allowed+to+stay+in+NATO&oq=why+should+turkey+be+allowed+to+stay+in+NATO&gs_l=psy-ab.12...38721.38721..42507...0.2..0.174.174.0j1......0....1..gws-wiz.......0i71._d-av0W1tIo&ved=0ahUKEwiczeqyw5_lAhUJrlkKHdwfAycQ4dUDCAs


Have at 'er and draw your own conclusions.


----------



## The Bread Guy (16 Oct 2019)

More of the latest …

*" US Special Forces secrets could fall into hands of Russians as Kurds side with Syria"* (intelnews.org)


*"Syria troops fight Turkish forces alongside Kurds: monitor"* (Agence France-Presse)


*"Erdogan orders Kurdish fighters in Syria to drop weapons, withdraw from border"* (_Washington Post_)
*" Erdoğan says Turkey will end Syria offensive 'if Kurds withdraw' "* (euronews.com)
*"Erdogan rules out talks with Syrian Kurdish forces"* (Irish media from wire services)
*"Erdogan says Turkey will 'never declare a ceasefire' "* (CNN)
*"Turkey-Syria offensive: Erdogan vows to press on with 'safe zone' plan"* (BBC)
*"Turkish leader pushes back against Trump admin efforts in Syria"* (msnbc.com)


_*"Turkish President Erdoğan slams those who accuse Turkey of committing civilian massacres in Syria, lays down red line* -- Never in our history has Turkey carried out any civilian massacres, as it is against our nature, said Turkey’s president on Wednesday, rebuffing attempts to smear its anti-terror operation in northern Syria.  "Turkey has never committed any civilian massacre in its history and it never will. Our religion and culture would never allow to do it," Recep Tayyip Erdoğan told his ruling Justice and Development (AK) Party's parliamentary group …"_ (TUR government info-machine)


*"Pence, Pompeo to visit Ankara as Russian forces move into northeast Syria, with US departure"* (Kurdish media)
*"President Trump says Turkey's invasion of Syria is 'not our problem' "* (Fox News)


*"Trump says Operation Peace Spring 'not our problem' "* (Turkish media)
*"Trump Says 'It's Fine' If Syria Gets Help From Russia, Claims Kurds 'are No Angels'"* (RUS state media)


*"Western coalition was pushing Syrian Kurds towards separatism, Lavrov says"* (RUS state media)
*"Russia seeks to cement its role as power broker in Syria"* (Associated Press)
*"The Russian Masterpiece in Syria: Everyone Wins"* (pro-RUS think tank)


----------



## The Bread Guy (17 Oct 2019)

This is reportedly #POTUS45's letter from last week to Turkey's president (source:  NY Times White House corresponent)


----------



## The Bread Guy (17 Oct 2019)

Aaaaaaaaaaaand fingers crossed ....


> Turkey has agreed to a five-day ceasefire in northeast Syria to allow for withdrawal of Kurdish forces, U.S. Vice President Mike Pence said on Thursday after talks with Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan.
> 
> “Today the United States and Turkey have agreed to a ceasefire in Syria,” Pence told a news conference after more than four hours of talks at the presidential palace in Ankara.


More ...


> US Vice President Mike Pence and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan agreed to a ceasefire in the military incursion into northeastern Syria. Pence was accompanied in Ankara by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and White House national security adviser Robert O'Brien.
> 
> "Today the United States and Turkey have agreed to a ceasefire in Syria," Pence said.
> 
> ...


----------



## Colin Parkinson (17 Oct 2019)

Might be that the "invasion" is not so popular at home and this way he gets to maximise propaganda value for minimal causalities?


----------



## Bruce Monkhouse (17 Oct 2019)

Or was the deal "we just need to wipe out a certain cell first"?


----------



## PPCLI Guy (17 Oct 2019)

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> This is reportedly #POTUS45's letter from last week to Turkey's president (source:  NY Times White House corresponent)



I challenge any of the apologists reading this post to provide a cogent and compelling argument as to why this letter is not a complete embarrassment to what used to be a great country.


----------



## The Bread Guy (17 Oct 2019)

PPCLI Guy said:
			
		

> I challenge any of the apologists reading this post to provide a cogent and compelling argument as to why this letter is not a complete embarrassment to what used to be a great country.


... and I think you're being kind in your assessment.

Meanwhile, a bit more on the 13-point USA-TUR plan, via the USA Embassy in Turkey, attached (source)

Edited to add:  Also attached is the latest situation map from these guys.


----------



## Jarnhamar (17 Oct 2019)

PPCLI Guy said:
			
		

> I challenge any of the apologists reading this post to provide a cogent and compelling argument as to why this letter is not a complete embarrassment to what used to be a great country.



It's fake news and not actually Trump. 

If it really was Trump it would have been only 240 characters or less and sent over Twitter.


----------



## brihard (17 Oct 2019)

PPCLI Guy said:
			
		

> I challenge any of the apologists reading this post to provide a cogent and compelling argument as to why this letter is not a complete embarrassment to what used to be a great country.



At least he’s not trying to fake it anymore.


----------



## daftandbarmy (17 Oct 2019)

PPCLI Guy said:
			
		

> I challenge any of the apologists reading this post to provide a cogent and compelling argument as to why this letter is not a complete embarrassment to what used to be a great country.



I disagree. His letter has been pegged at the Grade 3 level. This shows that he's improving 


“Is This Real?”: Trump Sends Third-Grade Reading-Level Letter to Erdoğan

Donald Trump has said or done something certifiably insane nearly every day of his presidency. And not like, “This guy’s a little kooky”-level insane, but full-on “Mr. President, put down the stapler and unhand the president of Finland”-level insane. But last week, apparently seeking to prove to the world that we ain’t seen nothing yet re: the depths of his mental instability, he wrote and reportedly proudly distributed the following letter to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, for all the world to see:

https://twitter.com/trish_regan/status/1184559361638748161

Each line of the letter contains an obvious Trumpism—talk of “deals,” reference to “tough guys”—but packaged together, in all its batshit glory, in an official letter to another world leader, it seemed unbelievable even for a guy who most people agree should’ve been placed under conservatorship some time ago. The immediate reaction from the media was “HOW IS THIS THING REAL,” and yet, according to the White House, it totally is! That means that the president of the United States sat down and either penned—or more likely dictated—a letter in which he told the president of Turkey, “Don’t be a tough guy,” “Don’t be a fool,” history “will look upon you forever as the devil if good things don’t happen,” and then, in what might be the absolute craziest way to end a piece of correspondence that references “slaughtering thousands of people,” signed off with: “I will call you later.”

It‘s the kind of thing that even Donald Trump Jr. will have to admit is a sign someone needs to place an emergency phone call to Dr. Bornstein, and that we assume has caused Ivanka to tell aides that “Daddy is resting and isn’t to be disturbed.”

Incredibly, the Erdoğan letter wasn’t the only example of Trump’s mental decline on Wednesday afternoon, which also saw the president lash out at Democrats like a machete-wielding madman on the subway and claim that he personally defeated ISIS:

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2019/10/donald-trump-erdogan-letter


----------



## garb811 (17 Oct 2019)

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> ... and I think you're being kind in your assessment.
> 
> Meanwhile, a bit more on the 13-point USA-TUR plan, via the USA Embassy in Turkey, attached (source)
> 
> Edited to add:  Also attached is the latest situation map from these guys.


It's nice the US and Turkey have struck a deal that seems to give Turkey most of what it wants at no cost the US but they seem to be forgetting that the Kurds invited a couple other players to the table when Trump unilaterally walked away. They are going to have a say in all of this as well and I doubt it is going to fit into what the US and Turkey have agreed to.


----------



## The Bread Guy (18 Oct 2019)

garb811 said:
			
		

> ... the Kurds invited a couple other players to the table when Trump unilaterally walked away. *They are going to have a say in all of this* as well and I doubt it is going to fit into what the US and Turkey have agreed to.


As they used to say on the parade square, wait for iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiit ....


----------



## The Bread Guy (18 Oct 2019)

A bit of the latest ...

_*"Fighting in Kurdish-held Syrian town despite cease-fire"*_ (Associated Press)
_*" Death toll rises as Syrian ceasefire fails"*_ (Kurdish media)
_*"Kurds accuse Turkish military of attacking civilians in Ras al-Ayn"*_ (RUS state media)
_*" Turkey accused of defying Syrian border ceasefire"*_ (Deutsche Welle)
_*"Turkish forces deny rescue, medical services entry to Ras al-Ayn — Kurdish agency"*_ (RUS state media)
_*"Turkish attacks against Serekaniye continue"*_ (Kurdish media)
_*"Turkish airstrikes continue on Syria’s Serekaniye despite ceasefire"*_ (Kurdish media)
_*" Despite a U.S.-brokered cease-fire agreement, fighting continued Friday in northeast Syria. *  Loud bangs and gunfire could be heard, and smoke could be seen rising over the town of Ceylanpinar, a day after Turkey and the U.S. agreed to a five-day cease-fire in Turkey's offensive against Kurdish fighters …" _ (Voice of America)
_*" Less than a day after reaching a deal for a pause in Turkey’s anti-terror push in northern Syria, reports of a clash between Turkish forces and YPG/PKK terrorists in the safe zone is nothing but disinformation, Turkey’s president said on Friday …"*_ (Turkish media)


_*"Turkey to continue Syria op if US not keep promises"*_ (Turkish media)
_*"Erdogan sees ‘no problem for Turkey’ if Syrian forces enter areas cleared of Kurdish militia"*_ (RUS state media)


_*" Hundreds of people fleeing the newly unstable situation in Syria crossed the border and are now in a detention camp in Iraq …"*_ (USA National Public Radio)
_*" Iraqi Kurds plea for emergency funding amidst Syrian refugee influx"*_ (Kurdish media)


_*" The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) will not handover thousands of detained Islamic State (ISIS) militants and their families to any force, including the Syrian regime, commander of the force Mazloum Kobani Abdi said late Wednesday.  “The fate of Daesh [ISIS] detainees and families is in our hands. We arrested them, they are held by us and we will determine their fate,” …"*_ (Kurdish media)


_*"Syria: Damning evidence of war crimes and other violations by Turkish forces and their allies"*_ (Amnesty International)


----------



## The Bread Guy (19 Oct 2019)

This commentary from the Federation of American Scientists ...


> Should the U.S. Air Force withdraw the roughly 50 B61 nuclear bombs it stores at the Incirlik Air Base in Turkey? The question has come to a head after Turkey’s invasion of Syria, Erdogan’s increasingly authoritarian leadership and deepening discord with NATO, Trump’s inability to manage U.S. security interests in Europe and the Middle East, and war-torn Syria only a few hundred miles from the largest U.S. nuclear weapons storage site in Europe.
> 
> According to The New York Times, State and Energy Department (?) officials last weekend quietly reviewed plans for evacuating the weapons from Incirlik. “Those weapons, one senior official said, were now essentially Erdogan’s hostages. To fly them out of Incirlik would be to mark the de facto end of the Turkish-American alliance. To keep them there, though, is to perpetuate a nuclear vulnerability that should have been eliminated years ago.”
> 
> ...


More detail & history of nukes in Turkey @ link.


----------



## daftandbarmy (19 Oct 2019)

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> This commentary from the Federation of American Scientists ...More detail & history of nukes in Turkey @ link.



This is an awesome cocktail party conversation killer, by the way, along the lines of:

Pretty Little (male or female) Things: 'Oh, isn't it horrible what Turkey is doing. We should kick them out of NATO and do other nasty things to them.'

Me, the Joy Killer: 'Well, there remains the inconvenient truth that they remain an important part of NATO's nuclear/other deterrent against Russia, and we have loads of our nukes based there.'

PL Things: 'Oh, er, uh, is that the time?'


----------



## CBH99 (19 Oct 2019)

As you phase out the old B61 bombs and replace them with their newer, more modern versions - replace the actual bombs with duds.  Pretty much eliminate your security risk while maintaining your fake friendship, win/win.  Or something alone those lines - pretty sure the CIA has had a few brainstorming sessions about the above.

More than enough US nuclear weapons spread throughout Europe to use against Russia if the adults decide the world needs to end.  Not including UK nuclear forces, French, etc. Turkey isn't the ONLY place to launch from.  And if anybody would clamp down on US military movements inside a base used by US military forces, it would be Turkey.  


https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/22738/turkish-lawyers-demand-raid-on-incirlik-air-base-and-arrest-of-u-s-military-personnel


----------



## Good2Golf (19 Oct 2019)

Maybe they’re already not real devices?


----------



## CBH99 (19 Oct 2019)

Honestly wouldn't surprise me.  

Or if there are still real bombs there, drastically fewer than reported, mixed in with some duds/fakes.


----------



## tomahawk6 (19 Oct 2019)

Russia is telling the Turks to withdraw from Syria. Also the US nukes are said to be safe but I would expect them to be moved elsewhere.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-says-unacceptable-turkish-incursion-113140175.html

Bombs

https://www.yahoo.com/news/us-turkey-dispute-raises-questions-183705345.html


----------



## garb811 (19 Oct 2019)

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> Russia is telling the Turks to withdraw from Syria. Aloso the US nukes are said to be safe but I would expect them to be moved elsewhere.
> 
> https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-says-unacceptable-turkish-incursion-113140175.html
> 
> ...


I guess Russia didn't get the memo about the Turkish Armed Forces being primarily responsible to enforce the safe zone the US and Turkey agreed to create, eh?  :not-again:


----------



## CBH99 (19 Oct 2019)

The US & Turkey made an agreement that put the responsibility of the safe area in Turkey's hands...while completely ignoring the fact that the proposed safe area is INSIDE Syria's border.  An internationally recognized border of a recognized state.

Russia really is the power broker here.  On the one hand, they are Syria's ally.  They helped keep Assad in power, provided firepower & special forces to quell the civil war, and assisted his forces in a variety of ways to regain the upper hand in contested areas.  I'm not pro Assad by any means, but Russia has an active interest in keeping areas near it's territory stable, and under it's influence.

Russia is also Turkey's ally, having just recently sold Turkey the S-400 missile system and very likely providing Turkey with fighter jets in the near future.  The S-400 isn't operational yet, as there are still radars, training, and support systems to come online as of yet -- so far, it's just the launchers & accessories.  The S-400 isn't slated to be operational until next year.



So Russia has a pretty hefty influence in Syria, and they now have a pretty stable persuasive hand in Turkey also.  I don't think Russia cares all that much what Turkey & the US agreed to in terms of a safe area inside Syria, without Syria's consent.  

Also, it isn't just regular Turkish Armed Forces conducting professional military operations.  That would be one thing - a professional military conducting operations as per widely accepted ROE, guidelines, a NATO member, etc.  Instead, Ergoden has opted to use TSFA militias to do a big chunk of the fighting for him - which means it's yet another militia taking over the area from the one we were supporting, and not just a professional armed force.  That isn't necessarily in Russia's interest either.




I think, at the end of the day, this has really helped to expand Russia's influence both in Syria and Turkey, and both will now fall under Russia's influence and direction to an extent.  The final result, of this chapter anyway, will end up with an eventual quiet brokered & owed to Russia.  Conquered both without firing a shot.


----------



## brihard (19 Oct 2019)

CBH99 said:
			
		

> The US & Turkey made an agreement that put the responsibility of the safe area in Turkey's hands...while completely ignoring the fact that the proposed safe area is INSIDE Syria's border.  An internationally recognized border of a recognized state.
> 
> Russia really is the power broker here.  On the one hand, they are Syria's ally.  They helped keep Assad in power, provided firepower & special forces to quell the civil war, and assisted his forces in a variety of ways to regain the upper hand in contested areas.  I'm not pro Assad by any means, but Russia has an active interest in keeping areas near it's territory stable, and under it's influence.
> 
> ...



That’s the problem with a major power electing a leader who can’t explain or spell ‘hegemony’.


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## Kat Stevens (19 Oct 2019)

Brihard said:
			
		

> That’s the problem with a major power electing a leader who can’t explain or spell ‘hegemony’.



Sure he can. That's the money you pay the gardener to trim the hedges.


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## tomahawk6 (20 Oct 2019)

US troops leaving Syria will operate out of Iraq. 

https://www.stripes.com/news/us/defense-chief-us-troops-leaving-syria-to-go-to-western-iraq-1.603827


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## The Bread Guy (20 Oct 2019)

_*"British children urgently need to be rescued from Syria"*  (Save the Children) _
_*"British officials have taken the first steps to repatriate children stranded in Syria by liaising directly with agencies on the ground to identify unaccompanied minors for “safe passage” back to the UK ..." *  (The Guardian) _
_*"Foreign ISIS wives in Syrian camp: 'Our men are waiting for us in Turkey' "*  (Kurdish media) _
_*"This Islamic State (ISIS) prisoner in northeast Syria now wants to go to a freer country in Europe. *  Mohammed Qasim is from Turkey, but fought in Syria in ISIS’ bid to establish and maintain its caliphate. Now in the detention of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), he says he wants out. “I want to live in a place where I can live freely,” ..." (Kurdish media) _


_*"More than 1,600 Syrian refugees come to (IRQ) Kurdistan Region since war with Turkey: UN"* (Kurdish media) _
_*"New refugees arrive to Iraq in a week of violence in northeast Syria"* (UNHCR)_


_*"Turkish-Kurdish cease-fire on edge as one soldier is killed"* (Deutsche Welle)_
_*"Injured YPJ fighter: There is no ceasefire, attacks continue"*  (Kurdish media) _
_*"PKK/YPG terrorists violate safe zone deal 20 times"*  (Turkey media)_
_*"Fighting continues along Turkish-Syrian border despite US-brokered pause in hostilities"* (Rojava Information Center, pro-Kurdish media)_


_*"US Responsible for Turkey’s “Ethnic Cleansing Op.” against Kurds: SDF Commander"* (Kurdish media)_
_*"YPG burns hospital, steals equipment in recently liberated Syrian town"*  (Turkish media)_
_*"14 attacks by YPG recorded in first 36hrs of ceasefire"*  (Turkish media)_
_*"YPG/PKK terrorists use Daesh footage for disinformation"*  (Turkish media)_


_*"PKK chief tells Syria Kurds: Don’t trust US, Russia – keep fighting"* (Kurdish media)_


_*"Turkey condemns Amnesty International's claims on anti-terror op in Syria"* (Turkish media) _
_*" We totally reject the unfounded allegations in Amnesty International’s report on Operation Peace Spring. * We consider these baseless allegations as part of an ongoing smear campaign against our efforts in countering the terror threat stemming from Syria and aiming at Turkey’s national security ..." (TUR Foreign Ministry)_


_*"How long will Turkey remain in northeast Syria?" * (Al Jazeera)_


_*"US defense secretary says withdrawal of troops from Syria will take 'weeks not days' "*  (CNN) _
_*"Kurdish General Slams U.S.-Syria Policy; Gen. Petraeus Calls Withdrawal 'A Betrayal' "* (National Public Radio) _


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## mariomike (20 Oct 2019)

PPCLI Guy said:
			
		

> I challenge any of the apologists reading this post to provide a cogent and compelling argument as to why this letter is not a complete embarrassment to what used to be a great country.



Sounds like the former United States Secretary of State has zero f---s left to give,  

"Found in the archives",
https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/status/1186008390926917632


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## CBH99 (20 Oct 2019)

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> US troops leaving Syria will operate out of Iraq.
> 
> https://www.stripes.com/news/us/defense-chief-us-troops-leaving-syria-to-go-to-western-iraq-1.603827




So Trump pulls troops out of Syria, and leaves the Kurds to now deal with the Turkish military offensive in addition to ISIS.

Reasons stated?  Pulling troops out of the Middle East.  It's not our problem.  They didn't help us in Normandy (Still  :facepalm


But now, those same troops are hopping on a plane & popping over to Iraq, to continue the same fight against the same enemy?  Seems like none of the initial reasons he stated are valid anymore...?


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## CBH99 (20 Oct 2019)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ZOUntMtlfo


Perhaps a stroke of accidental genius behind Trump's plan to withdraw from that part of Syria??


In ALL fairness, as much as nobody likes or can even understand Trump - the media does tend to focus 100% on attacking everything he says/does, without looking too broadly at what the underlying big picture may have been.

Whether what Mr. Graham is saying was an intentional "big picture" move from Trump, or perhaps a lucky aftermath, I doubt we will ever know.  Does seem like a prudent strategic move in regards to preventing Iranian influence from growing & directing oil revenues to the Kurds rather than Assad...


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## Remius (20 Oct 2019)

CBH99 said:
			
		

> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ZOUntMtlfo
> 
> 
> Perhaps a stroke of accidental genius behind Trump's plan to withdraw from that part of Syria??



I agree with the Stroke part.


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## The Bread Guy (2 Dec 2019)

Blackmail _IS_ such a harsh term ...


> Turkey is not blackmailing NATO with its rejection of a defence plan for the Baltics and Poland, and has full veto rights within the alliance, a Turkish security source said on Monday ahead of a NATO alliance summit in London.
> 
> Reuters reported last week that Turkey was refusing to back a NATO defence plan for the Baltics and Poland until it received more support for its battle with the Syrian Kurdish YPG militia, which it views as a terrorist organisation.
> 
> ...


More @ link


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## CBH99 (2 Dec 2019)

What do they need NATO's assistance for, in regards to their efforts in Syria?


They are the second largest military in NATO.  They have a modern army, and an air force equipped with a large fleet of upgraded & modern F-16's...  surely the ragtag militia's they are supplying to fight the Kurds (now that they can't as easily support ISIS) outta be enough backup, no?

Other than artillery firing from inside of Turkey into Kurdish areas, and possibly air strikes, I haven't seen a ton of professional Turkish military forces in the news clips.  Unprofessional militias being supplied by the Turks, on the other hand, seem to be everywhere.  



Not only that, but the Kurds are by far our preferred ally in the region.  What exactly does Turkey want us to do to support them again?  Bomb and kill the folks who sacrificed tens of thousands of their own to fight ISIS?  Since the Kurds waged that fight mostly between Turkey on one side & ISIS on the other, wouldn't Turkey prefer the Kurds next door over ISIS?  On the "surface" one would think so...


They might not be blackmailing NATO, as I'm not sure that is the correct term here.  But other than a refugee buffer, Turkey really isn't worth the annoyance it causes...   :2c:


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## daftandbarmy (3 Dec 2019)

CBH99 said:
			
		

> What do they need NATO's assistance for, in regards to their efforts in Syria?
> 
> 
> They are the second largest military in NATO.  They have a modern army, and an air force equipped with a large fleet of upgraded & modern F-16's...  surely the ragtag militia's they are supplying to fight the Kurds (now that they can't as easily support ISIS) outta be enough backup, no?
> ...



Sadly, we need each other

Despite loveless marriage, NATO to keep Turkey close

'Host to U.S. nuclear warheads at its Incirlik air base and with the second-largest military in the alliance, Turkey gives the alliance a strategic presence, notably on the Black and Mediterranean seas. NATO is also seeking an image of unity when it holds a summit in London on Dec. 4 to celebrate 70 years since its founding in Washington, hoping to shore up confidence shaken by Trump’s portrayal of the alliance in crisis, diplomats said.' 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nato-turkey/despite-loveless-marriage-nato-to-keep-turkey-close-idUSKBN1X41N9


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## CBH99 (3 Dec 2019)

With respect daftandbarmy,

Do we really need each other?  What does Turkey offer NATO (in the real world, not on paper) that we absolutely need?


1.  The US doesn't "need" nuclear weapons there, especially if their primary target is Russia.  

There are plenty of nuclear weapons positioned throughout Europe, not to mention the UK and French have nuclear forces of their own.  This doesn't include submarine launched nuclear weapons, either.

Also, how would that work?  If Turkey and Russia are allies, supporting each other's foreign policies and purchasing/supplying military hardware to each other...only to have a nuclear attack launched from Turkish territory?  The relationship between Turkey and the US has changed enough, the above might need be to considered.  (Most likely already has been.)


2.  Turkey, despite being a large NATO country with a professional military, doesn't seem to offer those forces to NATO operations in any real meaningful way minus naval contributions to task forces.

Even now, militias are being supplied/employed to do a majority of their ground fighting for them.


3.  Other than being a refugee buffer and absorbing a lot of refugees that would otherwise have made it to mainland Europe, what "good-willed" benefit does Turkey offer?

Let's not forget, Turkey - only a month or so ago - threatened to open the gates and allow thousands of refugees into Europe, if the EU didn't "properly word" their position in regards to the Turkish genocide of the Armenians.  

Not to mention the heavy-handed cleansing of Turkish societal institutions after the false-flag coup attempt.


There was a lot of press coverage about soldiers, police officers, news reporters, teachers, judges, etc etc being arrested and detaind after that.  I've tried to google information about those same people being released, and haven't been able to find anything.  Does anybody know?



With all due respect DandB, I don't know if we 'really' need each other all that much.  If they had a similar value system as the west, and could be replied upon to provide professional fighting forces to NATO operations, sure.  But I don't see either of those things happening.


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## brihard (3 Dec 2019)

CBH99 said:
			
		

> With respect daftandbarmy,
> 
> Do we really need each other?  What does Turkey offer NATO (in the real world, not on paper) that we absolutely need?
> 
> ...



Might it be that Turkey firmly in Russia’s orbit would convey substantially greater disadvantage to the alliance? At present Russia is reasonably well separated from the Med. Losing Turkey from NATO would cede a couple useful squares on the chess board. Turkey could be much more useful to Russia than they seem inclined to be to us. Denying Russia that ally could be seen as sufficiently advantageous to keep them around.


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## Blackadder1916 (3 Dec 2019)

Brihard said:
			
		

> Might it be that Turkey firmly in Russia’s orbit would convey substantially greater disadvantage to the alliance? At present Russia is reasonably well separated from the Med. Losing Turkey from NATO would cede a couple useful squares on the chess board. Turkey could be much more useful to Russia than they seem inclined to be to us. Denying Russia that ally could be seen as sufficiently advantageous to keep them around.



Or as previously said (in 1951);

http://archives.nato.int/uploads/r/null/1/2/120391/SGM-1136-51_ENG_PDP.pdf


> The aims and the organization of the Atlantic Pact are purely
> defensive, for it is designed to safeguard member states against
> the danger of external aggression. . . .
> 
> ...


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## The Bread Guy (16 Dec 2019)

Some of the latest ...

_*"Turkey could shut down its Incirlik air base, which hosts U.S. nuclear warheads, in response to threats of U.S. sanctions and a separate U.S. Senate resolution that recognized mass killings of Armenians a century ago as genocide, President Tayyip Erdogan said on Sunday ..."*_ (Reuters)
_*"Turkey could shut down its Incirlik airbase that hosts US nuclear warheads in response to threats of US sanctions, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned.* "If it is necessary for us to take such a step, of course, we have the authority... We will close down Incirlik if necessary," Erdogan said on A Haber TV on Sunday.  US senators backed legislation last week to impose sanctions on Turkey over the purchase of the Russian S-400 missile defence system earlier this year and its recent military operation in northern Syria ..."_ (Al Jazeera)
_*"Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan yesterday threatened to close two strategic military bases which are being used by the US should Washington impose sanctions for buying Russian missile systems.*  “If necessary, we’ll close Incirlik and also Kurecik,” Erdogan said in a televised interview, referring to the bases located in the southwest of the country, close to the Syrian border. “If the threat of sanctions is implemented against us, we’ll respond to them in the framework of reciprocity.” ..."_ (Middle East Monitor)
_*"President Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatened to close two critical NATO installations if the U.S. imposes sanctions over Turkey’s purchase of a Russian missile system, escalating a row that’s roiling the military alliance.*  The lira dropped the most in almost two months, the biggest decline among emerging-market currencies, as Erdogan’s high-stakes warning of possible retaliation sparked market concern.  “If it is necessary to shut it down, we would shut down Incirlik,” he told AHaber television on Sunday. “If it is necessary to shut it down, we would shut down Kurecik, too.”  Erdogan’s threat is the clearest sign yet that Turkey’s standoff with the U.S. risks spreading. An early-warning radar at Kurecik is a critical part of NATO’s ballistic-missile defense capabilities. Incirlik Air Base, close to Syria, is used by the Pentagon to store tactical nuclear weapons and conduct strikes against Islamic State ..."_ (Bloomberg)
_*"Main opposition CHP voices support for closing İncirlik, Kürecik air bases"*_ (TUR media)


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## MarkOttawa (23 Dec 2019)

Retired CIA operator on the contradictions inherent in working with YPG Kurds (and in other places too):


> The Inevitable Day of Reckoning in Syria
> 
> There has been a great deal of international outrage over what quite rightly has been called an abandonment of the Syrian Kurds by the United States. President Donald Trump’s rash actions in late October to remove U.S. special operations forces from Syria, condemned by both our foreign allies and nearly the entire U.S. foreign policy establishment, will go down as a dark point in U.S. unconventional warfare history.
> 
> ...



Mark
Ottawa


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## CBH99 (23 Dec 2019)

Thanks for finding & posting that Mark.

I appreciate being exposed to various angles of the long term situation I hadn't thought of, or hadn't recognized the importance of in government policy circles.  Good post!


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## Good2Golf (24 Dec 2019)

Not the first, and not the last.  Some will (rightly, I believe) point out that:  Mujahadeen + unresolved conservitization = Taliban.  Passage of time and fate often will make unsavory bedfellows.  Add pragmatism and the fickle nature of the lens of history to regional events of the day as they influence and provoke a response based on a a nation’s interest, and You can see where the cycle will continue on in one form or another. 

Regards
G2G


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## Colin Parkinson (4 Jan 2020)

Meanwhile things are not looking great for the Turkish Air Force

https://ahvalnews.com/defence/turkeys-air-force-can-barely-fly-its-f-16s-analyst?fbclid=IwAR0NO1DNcJW2nSCqoabzNGt6b_461Fuc-hbiay4Y-eMWxR-gsuLEUVsHivU


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## Cloud Cover (6 Jan 2020)

Interesting sub title for a byline article contained in that link Colin: 
"Turkey: How One Country Destroyed Their Own Air Force
Can you guess which?"

Why yes, yes I can guess which ...


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