# Future Threats



## 48Highlander (2 Jan 2005)

Yep.  I read an article by one of the advisors for the US administration that basically showed a threat model of the world which clearly shows that the most danger in the future will come not from wars between large nations but rather smaller factions operating from isolated countries.  There's a pretty good analysis that shows that countries which have accepted the idea of globalization, which constantly trade and work with one another, are much less likely to encourage or allow any hostility towards other such nations.  So the goal for future operations will be mainly dealing with countries which have rejected globalization and have isolated themselves from the global community.  Russia doesn't fit into that category, and judging from current relations they're very unlikely to create any problems for NATO.  They've got their own terrorists to fight.

MODIFIED:
Ah, found the link.  Take a look, it's a good read.  I'm pretty sure the ideas aren't new for many of the members here, but the fact that the pentagon is getting these sorts of briefings meand US policy will probably undergo some massive changes.

http://www.thomaspmbarnett.com/published/pentagonsnewmap.htm


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## Q.Y. Ranger (3 Jan 2005)

Thats pretty interesting.


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## Ukraineboy (9 Jan 2005)

Very interesting concept.

This is seems to be taking bloom in such hotspots as Chechnya, Georgia (Abkhazia and South Ossetia civil war) and the Post-USSR countries of Tajikistan, Kirgizhia (or Kyryzygstan or whatever they are calling them selves now) and Uzbekistan.

Lots of tensions in those areas and the CIS will have a lot on their hands.


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## tomahawk6 (9 Jan 2005)

Future threats are threats to the world's key resources, particularly oil. One day hydrogen will be a cheap alternative, but until that day comes we need to make sure that the US and our friends have access to the resources that are needed to keep modern societies functioning.


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