# What if....A Super disaster? Impact on Canada or the world? Napkin speculation



## ArmyRick (28 Jun 2022)

So some of my favorite hobby past times is learning about super or mega natural disasters. Its very humbling. And incredible what mother nature can do when she lays a smack down on man kind. 

I am talking things like volcanoes, hurricanes, earthquakes, tsunami, etc. They impact society. Or many societies. And would most certainly affect military and emergency services. 

So for fun, tell us a fictional story. What MEGA (not your everyday) disaster kicks the living hell out of Canada and/or the world. What sets up our man kind threatened disaster? and what happens next? 

I'll  go first. Apparently, Yellowstone (the park, not the awesome ranch) is on top of a very active but passive volcano that someday will erupt in a super volcano. So lets say its 2023 and that puppy finally lights up. Bad. Destroying pretty much the entire states of Wyoming and Montana. In Canada, southern Alberta, Saskatchewan and British Columbia are blanketed in thick ash clouds within days. 

Crops are destroyed, planes are grounded, people are ordered to stay home. Emergency services are overwhelmed and the CAF is deployed but barely puts a dent in the disaster's effects. Livestock are dying, oil fields are eventually shutdown and even land transportation is almost completely stopped. 

Several weeks later, the globe is covered in an ash sulfur cloud. The earth physically cools. Winter for us in Canada comes in 2-3 months early. Starvation skyrockets, hospitals are forced to brutally triage (turn away terminally ill and near death patients). Police and soldiers are stretched to their limits controlling exploitative actions such as looting. 

From what I have read the eruptions of Tambora and Krakatoa in the 1800s affected the global weather patterns for 2 plus years. So in this case, I will assume its a full decade before the weather returns to somewhat normal and end result sees the world population reduced by 75%. How would politicians react? Who knows. Maybe Trudeau will be still be thankful for his carbon taxes.  

How does your fictional story play out?


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## Underway (28 Jun 2022)

Honestly that's way too much of a disaster to really calculate.  75% of the global population is insane.  Imagine all the worlds nuclear reactors just fail because there is no one to look after them. All the chemical plants rot and leak their toxins.  You're talking a mass extinction event here.


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## Oldgateboatdriver (28 Jun 2022)

Nice Armyrick, but your scenario has already been played: Go watch this movie: 2012 (film) - Wikipedia


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## ArmyRick (28 Jun 2022)

Oldgateboatdriver said:


> Nice Armyrick, but your scenario has already been played: Go watch this movie: 2012 (film) - Wikipedia


I actually have not seen that one


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## ArmyRick (28 Jun 2022)

Underway said:


> Honestly that's way too much of a disaster to really calculate.  75% of the global population is insane.  Imagine all the worlds nuclear reactors just fail because there is no one to look after them. All the chemical plants rot and leak their toxins.  You're talking a mass extinction event here.


There is a strong theory among paleontologist that approximately 74,000 years ago a super volcano erupted causing devastating global effects. The then human population was reduced to an estimated 3-5,000. I can't remember what the human population was estimated at the time but they says there was a definite population bottleneck.


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## ArmyRick (28 Jun 2022)

Here it is Toba catastrophe theory - Wikipedia Just theory mind you.


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## Halifax Tar (28 Jun 2022)

Underway said:


> Honestly that's way too much of a disaster to really calculate.  75% of the global population is insane.  Imagine all the worlds nuclear reactors just fail because there is no one to look after them. All the chemical plants rot and leak their toxins.  You're talking a mass extinction event here.



Small scale but our current NBCD training looks at scenarios like this more than Nukes now.  Big concern in some of our less, ummm "regulated" ports. 









						Horrifying moment crane drops cylinder of chlorine gas killing 13 in Jordan port
					

Force of the blast sent a truck rolling down the harbourside, while port workers were seen running for their lives




					www.telegraph.co.uk


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## ArmyRick (28 Jun 2022)

Keep in mind, the world population was 2 billion in 1939. After 6 years of war an estimated 40-50 million people were killed. 

Something like a super volcano is on the level of a massive asteroid impact. So yes, 75% humans gone is very possible.


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## Remius (28 Jun 2022)

ArmyRick said:


> Keep in mind, the world population was 2 billion in 1939. After 6 years of war an estimated 40-50 million people were killed.
> 
> Something like a super volcano is on the level of a massive asteroid impact. So yes, 75% humans gone is very possible.


Here is a map showing the ash dispersal.  As well as time of year.


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## FSTO (28 Jun 2022)

Remius said:


> Here is a map showing the ash dispersal.  As well as time of year.
> 
> View attachment 71667
> 
> ...


So the entire food production area of North America is gone for a couple of years. I remember when Mt St Helen's blew. Our farm NW of Killarney MB was covered in a fairly substantial covering of ash a day or so after the eruption. Yellowstone, those that die on the day of will be the lucky ones.


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## Remius (28 Jun 2022)

With that modelling one can probably predict who would make it out in a timely manner.

So if we look at Canada we would have population movements to safe area in all directions via shortest route.  Air evac is a non starter as nothing will be able to fly.  CAF would have issues given the location of western forces so we can assume that maybe a third of our available resources would be hindered if not ineffective.  We’d be recalling every asset we have whenever they are deployed in the world. 

We’d likely have plenty of American refugees headed our way initially as some shorter routes to safety would be towards us.  Everything up to the pink zone would likely be a write off and people would be on their on to try and get out.  Orange zone would bear the hardest brunt of evacuated people, looting, etc.

Yellow zones would cope better but would eventually become destinations for displaced people.

I would see our military deployed initially to our orange zones but again, without air capability The ability to get to most of it (ie Calgary or Winnipeg). would be a challenge.  Road move would be a chaotic with people heading away from those areas.  Rail, maybe could be an option but I’m not sure what the status of rail would be.


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## Brad Sallows (28 Jun 2022)

End of current interglacial, although there's probably quite a bit of life left in this one.


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## mariomike (28 Jun 2022)

That is HUSAR's department. 

Disasters are what they live for.


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## KevinB (28 Jun 2022)

So 


Remius said:


> Here is a map showing the ash dispersal.  As well as time of year.
> 
> View attachment 71667
> 
> ...


I’ll be hoping for a April to July eruption, as October is a bad month for me.


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## Kirkhill (28 Jun 2022)

It's all there in the tree-rings.



> Upon examining the tree-ring record, Baillie noticed indications of severe environmental downturns around 2354 BC, 1628 BC, 1159 BC, 208 BC, and AD 540. The evidence suggests that these environmental downturns were wide-ranging catastrophic events; the AD 540 event in particular is attested in tree-ring chronologies from Siberia through Europe and North and South America. This event coincides with the second largest ammonium signal in the Greenland ice in the last two millennia, the largest being in AD 1014,








						Mike Baillie - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				









						Volcanic winter of 536 - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				






> The *volcanic winter of 536* was the most severe and protracted episode of climatic cooling in the Northern Hemisphere in the last 2,000 years.[1] The volcanic winter was caused by an eruption, with several possible locations proposed in various continents. Most contemporary accounts of the volcanic winter are from authors in Constantinople, the capital of the Eastern Roman Empire, although the impact of the cooler temperatures extended beyond Europe. Modern scholarship has determined that in early 536 CE (or possibly late 535) the eruption ejected massive amounts of sulfate aerosols into the atmosphere, which reduced the solar radiation reaching the Earth's surface and cooled the atmosphere for several years. In March 536, Constantinople began experiencing darkened skies and cooler temperatures.
> 
> Summer temperatures in 536 fell by as much as 2.5 degrees Celsius (4.5 degrees Fahrenheit) below normal in Europe. The lingering impact of the volcanic winter of 536 was augmented in 539–540 when another volcanic eruption caused summer temperatures to decline as much as 2.7 degrees Celsius (4.9 degrees Fahrenheit) below normal in Europe.[2] There is evidence of still another volcanic eruption in 547 which would have extended the cooler period. The volcanic eruptions, accompanied by the Plague of Justinian, which began in 541, caused crop failures, famine, and millions of deaths and initiated the Late Antique Little Ice Age, which lasted from 536 to 660.[3]
> 
> Medieval scholar Michael McCormick has written that 536 was the worst year in history to be alive. "It was the beginning of one of the worst periods to be alive, if not the worst year."



A smaller scale version was 1816









						Year Without a Summer - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				






> The year 1816 is known as the *Year Without a Summer* because of severe climate abnormalities that caused average global temperatures to decrease by 0.4–0.7 °C (0.7–1 °F).[1] Summer temperatures in Europe were the coldest on record between the years of 1766–2000.[2] This resulted in major food shortages across the Northern Hemisphere.[3]
> 
> Evidence suggests that the anomaly was predominantly a volcanic winter event caused by the massive 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora in April in the Dutch East Indies (known today as Indonesia). This eruption was the largest in at least 1,300 years (after the hypothesized eruption causing the volcanic winter of 536), and was perhaps exacerbated by the 1814 eruption of Mayon in the Philippines.



Fiction has a long way to go before it beats the real thing.


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## Kirkhill (28 Jun 2022)

mariomike said:


> That is HUSAR's department.
> 
> Disasters are what they live for.



To paraphrase -


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## daftandbarmy (28 Jun 2022)

Someone on here will know far more about this than I, but I recall talking with some emergency management folks on the Ministry of Health side about the earthquake risk on the West Coast.

A 7.0 quake striking close to downtown Vancouver, the most densely populated piece of Canada West of Toronto, would immediately result in over 6000 dead and times 10 wounded.

All the hospitals would collapse, of course, because they aren't earthquake proofed. All the bridges and other infrastructure would disintegrate. All the structures around the downtown area, nearest the water, would cave in as alot of them are built on shaky foundations and breeze blocks chucked in the west coast cedar swamp so they could build up neighbourhoods like Gastown and False Creek, which were originally temporary sawmill towns less than 100 years ago.

The Lower Mainland is the only major municipal region in Canada without co-located CAF resources. You know, the ones who do the heavy lifting in emergencies like this: the Army. Most reservists will be victims, as opposed to rescuers, of course. Vancouver airport, the only way to get aid/ CAF in, and casualties out, quickly will liquefy and burble into the salt chuck.

Frail/ vulnerable people would just die like flies in winter. If it struck in winter, healthier people would die like flies too. Dealing with tens of thousands of bodies will be unmanageable, therefore Cholera would likely kick in pretty quick and kill many more.

Because of the entitlement culture on the West Coast, no one has prepared themselves to survive for the mandatory minimum of two weeks without food, shelter, medicine, clothing etc.

Glass half full: the subsequent, gigantic, Tsunami would do a good job flushing the dead, wounded and debris out into Georgia Strait

There's a map in this article that shows the main areas that might be effected. I'm glad that I live on a rocky Island, far from there! 





			https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/vancouver-earthquake-damage-map-1.5324104


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## Blackadder1916 (28 Jun 2022)

Oldgateboatdriver said:


> Nice Armyrick, but your scenario has already been played: Go watch this movie: 2012 (film) - Wikipedia



But would be better with this slight twist.


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## ArmyRick (28 Jun 2022)

Sci Fi aside, a valid point brought up by DAB, many of the seismic events have knock on effects (Volcano or earthquake leads to tsunami, etc.)


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## Good2Golf (28 Jun 2022)

ArmyRick said:


> …Yellowstone exploding, Global Cooling scenario…
> 
> 
> How does your fictional story play out?


Dancing in the streets because we don’t have Trudeau and Gerald Butts being all preachy about 2050 NetZero?


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## ArmyRick (28 Jun 2022)

What do you think it would take the worst hurricane event ever? I only recently learned recently the more the Sahara turns to desert (creates more ground heat and repels more air moisture see Dr Walter Jenhe for more info) has direct influence on Atlantic hurricanes.


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## ArmyRick (28 Jun 2022)

Good2Golf said:


> Dancing in the streets because we don’t have Trudeau and Gerald Butts being all preachy about 2050 NetZero?


I can hear Trudeau now "Um, er, so this volcano blow up thingy is something we can all learn from and take a message away from this. Volcanoes kill people and that is hate, therefore we shall launch a new bill to ban assault volcanoes immediately"


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## GR66 (28 Jun 2022)

Earthquake scenarios don't have to be limited to the Pacific coast either.  A pair of massive intraplate earthquakes hit the New Madrid area of Missouri in 1811 and 1812 and had the region not been sparsely populated frontier at the time the damage would have been widespread and severe.

Intraplate faults in the Lower Great Lakes, Ottawa River Valley and St Lawrence River Valley might be particularly vulnerable putting Toronto, Hamilton, Ottawa and Montreal at significant risk.


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## KevinB (28 Jun 2022)

daftandbarmy said:


> Someone on here will know far more about this than I, but I recall talking with some emergency management folks on the Ministry of Health side about the earthquake risk on the West Coast.
> 
> A 7.0 quake striking close to downtown Vancouver, the most densely populated piece of Canada West of Toronto, would immediately result in over 6000 dead and times 10 wounded.
> 
> ...


Please take California too…


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## daftandbarmy (28 Jun 2022)

KevinB said:


> Please take California too…



Unfortunately, because of vast under-investment in preparedness, the costs of recovery and reconstruction post-quake might bankrupt the country so the West would continue to plague the rest of you through eternity in one way or another 

These are the good old days. You're welcome!


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## Weinie (28 Jun 2022)

Live by the sword, die by the sword.


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## KevinB (28 Jun 2022)

Weinie said:


> Live by the sword, die by the sword.


So for the Left Coast folks that would be live by the Coast, die by the coast…


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## daftandbarmy (28 Jun 2022)

KevinB said:


> So for the Left Coast folks that would be live by the Coast, die by the coast…


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## OldSolduer (28 Jun 2022)

mariomike said:


> That is HUSAR's department.
> 
> Disasters are what they live for.


I thought that was the Trudeau government's responsibility...

Anyways I saw a TV program that tried to forecast what it would look like if the Pacific Rim went up.

The volcanos. Not the big monsters....


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## Fishbone Jones (28 Jun 2022)

ArmyRick said:


> I can hear Trudeau now "Um, er, so this volcano blow up thingy is something we can all learn from and take a message away from this. Volcanoes kill people and that is hate, therefore we shall launch a new bill to ban assault volcanoes immediately"


That is too prophetic. Stop it. I actually read that in his condescending, speaking quietly to children in exasperation, voice.


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## Fishbone Jones (28 Jun 2022)

Many surmise that the Yellowstone eruption would be pretty close to an extinction event


daftandbarmy said:


> Someone on here will know far more about this than I, but I recall talking with some emergency management folks on the Ministry of Health side about the earthquake risk on the West Coast.
> 
> A 7.0 quake striking close to downtown Vancouver, the most densely populated piece of Canada West of Toronto, would immediately result in over 6000 dead and times 10 wounded.
> 
> ...


so those 6000 dead. Would that be where all the expensive ChiCom real estate is at? Would we miss it?


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## daftandbarmy (28 Jun 2022)

Fishbone Jones said:


> so those 6000 dead. Would that be where all the expensive ChiCom real estate is at? Would we miss it?



Dude, your racism is showing...

Regardless, there are about a million Canadians in that 'ground zero' area and, as we saw with the hugely destructive floods in the Fraser Valley last November, there is a big gap between what we _should _have in place to help survive a major disaster (especially on the infrastructure side) and what we _actually _have in place, IIRC...


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## Weinie (28 Jun 2022)

KevinB said:


> So for the Left Coast folks that would be live by the Coast, die by the coast…


Sword, coast, who cares? Edit: I would miss SKT.


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## Weinie (28 Jun 2022)

Weinie said:


> Sword, coast, who cares? Edit: I would miss SKT.


And D&B. That is all.


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## Spencer100 (28 Jun 2022)

Blackadder1916 said:


> But would be better with this slight twist.











						The Road Warrior (1981) - IMDb
					

The Road Warrior: Directed by George Miller. With Mel Gibson, Bruce Spence, Michael Preston, Max Phipps. In the post-apocalyptic Australian wasteland, a cynical drifter agrees to help a small, gasoline-rich community escape a horde of bandits.




					www.imdb.com
				




Go Mad instead!


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## daftandbarmy (28 Jun 2022)

Weinie said:


> And D&B. That is all.



Oh, don't worry about me


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## Weinie (28 Jun 2022)

Weinie said:


> And D&B. That is all.


Sorry, forgot Chandler's restaurant if they still have "All you can eat King Crab night" and the "Six Mile Pub" in Victoria. I will miss them also.


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## Spencer100 (28 Jun 2022)

Or Thunderdome if you need a better soundtrack and legs 









						Mad Max Beyond Thunderdome (1985) - IMDb
					

Mad Max Beyond Thunderdome: Directed by George Miller, George Ogilvie. With Mel Gibson, Bruce Spence, Adam Cockburn, Tina Turner. After being exiled from the most advanced town in post apocalyptic Australia, a drifter travels with a group of abandoned children to rebel against the town's queen.




					www.imdb.com


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## Weinie (28 Jun 2022)

daftandbarmy said:


> Oh, don't worry about me


You get to drive the cool convertible.


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## mariomike (28 Jun 2022)

OldSolduer said:


> I thought that was the Trudeau government's responsibility...



I was only familiar with CAN-TF3. Their pay cheques come from City Hall. I doubt they GAF about party politics...


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## Fishbone Jones (28 Jun 2022)

daftandbarmy said:


> Dude, your racism is showing...
> 
> Regardless, there are about a million Canadians in that 'ground zero' area and, as we saw with the hugely destructive floods in the Fraser Valley last November, there is a big gap between what we _should _have in place to help survive a major disaster (especially on the infrastructure side) and what we _actually _have in place, IIRC...


We really need our sarcasm emoji back. I was talking about the real estate.


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## daftandbarmy (28 Jun 2022)

Fishbone Jones said:


> We really need our sarcasm emoji back. I was talking about the real estate.



I know... I should have used the smiley emoji.

How will we close the emoji gap??!


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## lenaitch (28 Jun 2022)

Remius said:


> With that modelling one can probably predict who would make it out in a timely manner.
> 
> So if we look at Canada we would have population movements to safe area in all directions via shortest route.  Air evac is a non starter as nothing will be able to fly.  CAF would have issues given the location of western forces so we can assume that maybe a third of our available resources would be hindered if not ineffective.  We’d be recalling every asset we have whenever they are deployed in the world.
> 
> ...


I don't think ground transportation would be all that effective either.  Volcanic ash is essentially pulverized rock and glass particles, so internal combustion engines would struggle, at least until the fuel ran out because power for the pumps is down.


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## Remius (28 Jun 2022)

lenaitch said:


> I don't think ground transportation would be all that effective either.  Volcanic ash is essentially pulverized rock and glass particles, so internal combustion engines would struggle, at least until the fuel ran out because power for the pumps is down.


That’s why I think they don’t get any further than the orange zone and maybe only able to go so far into it.  Which is why maybe rail would be better.


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## lenaitch (29 Jun 2022)

Remius said:


> That’s why I think they don’t get any further than the orange zone and maybe only able to go so far into it.  Which is why maybe rail would be better.


Anything with an air-breathing engine will either suck in abrasive ash or have their filters clogged very quickly.


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## NavyShooter (29 Jun 2022)

So.....the catastrophic volcano event in Yellowstone would turn the breadbasket of America (and Canada) into a pile of ash.

What would it do to the rest of the world?  Would they come to our aid, or would they laugh at us, and turn on each other and start a bunch of 'little' wars for their own gain and attempted survival based on scarce resources?

Another deep thought - the focal point of that destruction is actually in the midst of 'flyover country' in the US - where the folks are often the most prepared, most equipped, and least interested in government interference.  They also produce most of the food for the folks outside of that area.  What happens when the folks in downtown 'Big City #2/3/4/5' in the US have no food delivered anymore...few of them prepare, and to be honest, the reality is that we're less than 3 days from food riots and chaos in most big cities.  

That sort of scenario would literally see the deaths of millions in the US.

How do you prepare for that sort of thing?  

Makes the 3 days of gas I have for my home generator seem pretty...inadequate.  Also makes me want to go back to Costco and re-stock my backup supplies - during COVID, I ramped up to having 3 months of 'staples' on hand.  I've cycled a bunch of that into our regular cupboard in the past few months to ensure it doesn't 'age out' in storage...but I haven't done a good job of refilling my backup food supply.

How do you handle a multi-year food shortage, and the high likelihood of power blackouts?  It's kind of tough to stock up 3 years worth of food without a lot of planning...and the 'easy' solution for backup power is solar, which would not be a good solution in a post-volcanic situation.  I'm thinking I'd have to branch out to hydro power generation...there is a stream near the house that I could probably tap into.  

That's a dilly of a pickle....


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## Remius (29 Jun 2022)

NavyShooter said:


> So.....the catastrophic volcano event in Yellowstone would turn the breadbasket of America (and Canada) into a pile of ash.
> 
> What would it do to the rest of the world?  Would they come to our aid, or would they laugh at us, and turn on each other and start a bunch of 'little' wars for their own gain and attempted survival based on scarce resources?
> 
> ...


You just answered your question.  Pickle.

Start growing vegetables and start learning to jar.  And dry meat.


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## Halifax Tar (29 Jun 2022)

Remius said:


> You just answered your question.  Pickle.
> 
> Start growing vegetables and start learning to jar.  And dry meat.



I would add in hunting and fishing as well.  Bartering with neighbors and local farmers is also a maybe.  

We have a bug out plan in our family.  My wife knows what do, where to go and what bring and to hold out for my arrival if I we are not together.


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## daftandbarmy (29 Jun 2022)

And then there's the Cascade Volcano arc, many of which I have climbed and can confirm are 'active'. For example, you can see 'bubbling goo' at the Devil's Kitchen near the summit of Mt Hood, and wisps of steam emerging from many of the others. And Mt St Helen's blew up in 1980.

The lahar threat to Seattle from Mt Rainier is particulalry serious, apparently, and there is a similar threat to the Sea to Sky/ Vancouver area from Mt Garibaldi. There is geologic evidence that some of these volcanoes have erupted over a series of years in the past. 

From the summit of Mt Douglas in Victoria you have direct line of sight to Mt Baker and Mt Rainier, amongst others. The blast from a big eruption, like Mt St Helens, would hit us pretty full on.

Cascade Volcanoes​
The *Cascade Volcanoes* (also known as the *Cascade Volcanic Arc* or the *Cascade Arc*) are a number of volcanoes in a volcanic arc in western North America, extending from southwestern British Columbia through Washington and Oregon to Northern California, a distance of well over 700 miles (1,100 km). The arc formed due to subduction along the Cascadia subduction zone. Although taking its name from the Cascade Range, this term is a geologic grouping rather than a geographic one, and the Cascade Volcanoes extend north into the Coast Mountains, past the Fraser River which is the northward limit of the Cascade Range proper.

Some of the major cities along the length of the arc include Portland, Seattle, and Vancouver, and the population in the region exceeds 10 million. All could be potentially affected by volcanic activity and great subduction-zone earthquakes along the arc. Because the population of the Pacific Northwest is rapidly increasing, the Cascade volcanoes are some of the most dangerous, due to their eruptive history and potential for future eruptions, and because they are underlain by weak, hydrothermally altered volcanic rocks that are susceptible to failure. Consequently, Mount Rainier is one of the Decade Volcanoes identified by the International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth's Interior (IAVCEI) as being worthy of particular study, due to the danger it poses to Seattle and Tacoma. Many large, long-runout landslides originating on Cascade volcanoes have engulfed valleys tens of kilometers from their sources, and some of the areas affected now support large populations.









						Cascade Volcanoes - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


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## Remius (29 Jun 2022)

Halifax Tar said:


> I would add in hunting and fishing as well.  Bartering with neighbors and local farmers is also a maybe.
> 
> We have a bug out plan in our family.  My wife knows what do, where to go and what bring and to hold out for my arrival if I we are not together.


We have a similar plan.  Our cottage is near water, on an island with enough farmland to sustain the island’s population. Plenty of space to hunt.  Heating is not an issue.  

On a less end of world scenario, the last massive storm we had here in Ottawa (we were hit by a Dericho) I finally managed to convince my wife to invest in a decent generator,  a tri fuel thing that can power most of the house from my NG line. I already had varying power packs including some solar and a multi powered radio (solar, electric and crank all in one). 

For those that experienced it here we lost power and cell, and gas stations were either out of power themselves or quickly ran out of fuel.  

Weird weather events are only going to continue here.


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## QV (29 Jun 2022)

A Yellowstone eruption would likely turn into a mass extinction event. Atmospheric ash would block out the sun for quite some time probably killing vegetation and the spiral down from there would accelerate.  See the movie "The Road" for likely outcome.


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## SeaKingTacco (29 Jun 2022)

Geology Hub on Youtube is a great source of info on volcanoes. I will ruin this thread: he does not think much of the Yellowstone supervolcano theory.

He does a lot of good work on the Cascadia volcanoes, which he definitely thinks will go again at some pont in the future…


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## mariomike (29 Jun 2022)

> How do you prepare for that sort of thing?



Lots of good advice here,









						Survival and Prepping
					

Costco sells an 'End of the world' food kit for $6,000 USD which can sustain 4 people for a year.  Best line: 'Packaged discreetly for privacy in shipping.' https://www.costco.com/Nutristore-1-YEAR-Premium-Food-Kit-36%2c000-Servings.product.100302316.html




					army.ca


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## Remius (29 Jun 2022)

SeaKingTacco said:


> Geology Hub on Youtube is a great source of info on volcanoes. I will ruin this thread: he does not think much of the Yellowstone supervolcano theory.
> 
> He does a lot of good work on the Cascadia volcanoes, which he definitely thinks will go again at some pont in the future…


To be honest from what I read a Yellowstone mega volcano is unlikely.  Several small eruptions and shorter intervals is more realistic.


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## KevinB (29 Jun 2022)

QV said:


> A Yellowstone eruption would likely turn into a mass extinction event. Atmospheric ash would block out the sun for quite some time probably killing vegetation and the spiral down from there would accelerate.  See the movie "The Road" for likely outcome.


When society takes the big flush, you need to be prepared to hang on to the rim…


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## Brad Sallows (29 Jun 2022)

A volcanic eruption large enough to severely cripple NA is large enough to affect worldwide agriculture.  Nations would be too busy struggling to feed themselves and fighting with immediate neighbours to undertake conquering/colonizing expeditions to NA.


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## daftandbarmy (29 Jun 2022)

KevinB said:


> When society takes the big flush, you need to be prepared to hang on to the rim…



Meanwhile, me during COVID


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## AmmoTech90 (29 Jun 2022)

South-Eastern Alberta volcano!  Actually a coal seam that has been burning for a few decades near Redciff/Med Hat and  breaks through occasionally.

Our contribution to world ending disasters.


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## FJAG (29 Jun 2022)

NavyShooter said:


> So.....the catastrophic volcano event in Yellowstone would turn the breadbasket of America (and Canada) into a pile of ash.


Volcanic ash is very fertile and would probably improve the crop yields so long as it isn't too deep to till initially and machinery can be protected from it.






😁


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## QV (29 Jun 2022)

KevinB said:


> When society takes the big flush, you need to be prepared to hang on to the rim…


It turns out "The Great Reset" is actually a natural phenomena and not a conspiracy theory after all.


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## KevinB (29 Jun 2022)

QV said:


> It turns out "The Great Reset" is actually a natural phenomena and not a conspiracy theory after all.


Malthusian Checks…


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## daftandbarmy (29 Jun 2022)

FJAG said:


> Volcanic ash is very fertile and would probably improve the crop yields so long as it isn't too deep to till initially and machinery can be protected from it.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Indeed:

“It is a curious feature of our existance that we come from a planet that is very good at promoting life but even better at extinguishing it.”

― Bill Bryson, A Short History of Nearly Everything


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## daftandbarmy (24 Oct 2022)

Just in time for Halloween... imagining the 'Full Monty' disaster 

A massive earthquake hits B.C. — but what happens next?​ 
Nearly a year after devastating floods hit B.C., emergency planners are imagining how a catastrophic earthquake could be made worse by a changing climate.









						A massive earthquake hits B.C. — but what happens next?
					

Nearly a year after devastating floods hit B.C., emergency planners are imagining how a catastrophic earthquake could be made worse by a changing climate.




					www.timescolonist.com


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## mariomike (24 Oct 2022)

Maybe not even a "super disaster".









						What happens if the Honolulu Rail derails?
					

No one wants a derailment, but training for the exercise has been years in the making.




					www.khon2.com


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## Booter (24 Oct 2022)

mariomike said:


> I was only familiar with CAN-TF3. Their pay cheques come from City Hall. I doubt they GAF about party politics...


What’s the size of that team? My experience with that stuff is they aren’t nearly large enough to handle a “super disaster”. I would suggest that Canada has no capability for that. 

For example, a certain provinces HAZMAT on call is two guys on call- for the province without permission to be more than two hours from the provincial capital.


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## Colin Parkinson (24 Oct 2022)

For an emergency exercise in Vancouver, I suggested that all the critical people meant to meet at the emergency HQ should have to walk there from their home/place of work and then start the exercise and no cellphones. That idea was not meet with much enthusiasm for some reason....


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## Halifax Tar (24 Oct 2022)

Don't forget if BC goes down the tube the USA is also probably busy with their share of the disaster.

I imagine we (Canada) would be on our own for sometime.


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## mariomike (24 Oct 2022)

Booter said:


> What’s the size of that team?









						Toronto (CAN-TF3) Heavy Urban Search and Rescue - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				






> CAN-TF3 is operated by Toronto Fire Services, in collaboration with Toronto Police Service and Toronto EMS created to deal with search and rescue operations in the City of Toronto.[1] This specialized unit was created following the September 11 attacks in New York City, United States and allows the city to deal with large-scale disasters. The unit can respond to situations outside of the city, and offer provincial, national, as well as international assistance.





> The capabilities of Toronto HUSAR include, but are not limited to the following:




Physical search and rescue operations in damaged/collapsed structures
Paramedic care to the injured
Paramedic care to the disaster response personnel
Reconnaissance to assess the damages and needs and provide feedback to local, provincial, and federal officials
Assessment of utilities to houses and buildings
Hazardous material surveys/evaluations
Structural/hazard evaluations of government/municipal buildings needed for immediate occupancy to support disaster relief operations
Stabilization of damaged structures, including shoring, cribbing operations on damaged buildings
Water/ice rescue operations


CBRNE (Chemical, Biological, Radioactive, Nuclear & Explosive) - Specially-trained paramedics operate together with elements of the Toronto Police Service and Toronto Fire Services to provide a joint-service Terrorism/Hazardous Materials Response team.
I was on the bus and truck division. Only had a passing familiarity with departmental HUSAR, CBRNE, ETF, PSU, ERU, Marine etc. operations.


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## Booter (24 Oct 2022)

It’s not a capability question, I can have a member trained in a very specific task- so I can have the capability to do something- but the realistic scope and sustainability of the capability is a different question, 

130 members is larger than I expected however. I suppose they probably exist under the expectation of being a force multiplier. Being to coach and create new members out of local assets,


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## foresterab (24 Oct 2022)

I haven't worked with CANTF-3 but did work with CANTF-2 (City of Calgary based) a couple of years ago.   They sent 25? folks out to a wildfire, despite having no experience with fires, and did an excellent job because they were there to enable the additional specialist knowledge they knew they did not have and to provide support in a resource shortage.   I would like to assume CANTF-3 would be of equal standards but not sure how much experience they've received.  

Unfortunately at a 130 member team I'm guessing that's at best only good for 1 or best case 2 deployments before they man out.     There is both the incident command post to be manned plus there will be a local Emergency Operations Center and possibly a provincial Operations Center....all of which will need augmentation and generally of highly skilled specialists.   Think of taking CFB Gagetown staff, including all units, and then saying I need 10-15 field grade officers for the emergency center (by skill set not rank) plus the same for the incident command post plus a few more at provincial headquarters.   You can still go but it's now a huge chunk of your leadership positions occupied by the deployment while the remainder of the team fill sub-functions or don't deploy due to unneeded skill sets and most likely you're looking at the next Roto to be a fresh team.   

A type 1 IMT team is often 25-50 people as just the core structure deploying.   In the major incident example you might have a IMT at the EOC + an IMT supervising multiple regional IMT's.   Don'[t really want to think how that deployment would be....


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## mariomike (24 Oct 2022)

Booter said:


> - but the realistic scope and sustainability of the capability is a different question,



Real world capability?  I remember the strain we were under just to respond to "little" things. Like traffic accidents.

I do not recall anything I would descibe as a major disaster. But, privately, I don't think many of us had much confidence we had the human resources available to handle one.


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## mariomike (24 Oct 2022)

foresterab said:


> I haven't worked with CANTF-3 but did work with CANTF-2 (City of Calgary based) a couple of years ago.



CAN TF-3 deployed to Elliot Lake, ON.









						City of Toronto’s HUSAR team deployed to Elliot Lake
					

"The mayor of Elliot Lake declared a state of emergency, triggering action from the City of Toronto’s HUSAR team. It deployed for the seven-hour trek Saturday night, bringing tractor trailers, vans and rescue equipment to the northern Ontario town of 11,000, which sits about halfway between...




					army.ca


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## daftandbarmy (24 Oct 2022)

mariomike said:


> Real world capability?  I remember the strain we were under just to respond to "little" things. Like traffic accidents.
> 
> I do not recall anything I would descibe as a major disaster. But, privately, I don't think many of us had much confidence we had the human resources available to handle one.



I saw the Vancouver HUSAR team once during an exercise. They're about platoon strength I think. Lots of cool gear, but a tiny organization.

During a major disaster they'd be pretty much useless IMHO. You'd need about a Brigade's worth of resources to make even a small dent in the disaster response requirements for a major urban centre.


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## foresterab (24 Oct 2022)

daftandbarmy said:


> I saw the Vancouver HUSAR team once during an exercise. They're about platoon strength I think. Lots of cool gear, but a tiny organization.
> 
> During a major disaster they'd be pretty much useless IMHO. You'd need about a Brigade's worth of resources to make even a small dent in the disaster response requirements for a major urban centre.


I was thinking of Horse River in 2016 - Fort Mac Murray.    

Provincial Operating Center in Edmonton - 1-2 folks per agency + specialist inputs to brief Premier/Cabinet/MLA's. 

Emergency Operating Center - Formed on the basis of local agency (in this case MD of Wood Buffalo) and has the function of coordinating multiple responses and "big picture" stuff.   These are the folks who were dealing with re-entry plans, water treatment plant checks, Immigration services at the airport...the strategic framework for smaller unit to work towards achieving goals.

Incident Management Team on site.   

Note due to complexity you're now talking not just an Incident commander but also deputies (of similar skill set) and possibly 24 hour operations (so relief shifts).  Type 1 IC's are a rare bird...and if you need 4 for a single roto it's going to be extra tough. 
Very few agencies have enough staff to deploy a complete team.  Composite teams are common and in some cases almost better so you have transition on extended operations.   
Span of control can be a limiting factor.  ICS uses a max of 7 subordinates and qualifications usually increase quickly as you move up.   
Section by MCpl/Sgt supervised by Lt/Sgt at Platoon level to Captain/Company level to Battalion command.  That's the same to me as firecrew leader  being supervised by strike team leader reporting to a Division supervisor.   And I still have Branch Supervisor before the Operations Chief and IC.  
What degree of equivalent experience are you willing to accept?   Wildfire has a long history of exchanging resources and frankly there's enough ties with Armed Forces to understand the command chain.   But what about your local municipality?

Design of the IMT can drastically vary.  Are you doing it by function/Branch (fire, security, medical, recovery?) or area/Division (North Vancouver vs. Surrey).   Qualification and resource needs will not be the same in all functions.
What are the logistical constraints of what you can host?   You're not going to be dealing with 10's of people incoming but 100's or 1000's.   
Or is it a case of one IMT whose job is coordinate sub IMT's (of lower complexity) to chew things into more managed chunks?   For example CANTF3 comes in and establishes overall IMT support while then breaking the incident into smaller units.   RCN goes to Surrey while the RCAF mans North Vancouver, BC Wildfire gets East Vancouver, and 3rd Division gets Whiterock?
The point of this is the Vancouver HUSAR team might fill the EOC or help fill the IMT on site or a sub team.   I've heard good things about them but it's a different focus of training that while similar is different enough we don't overlap much.    The bigger question to me is if the incident is in Vancouver how many will even be available to deploy if they've been evacuated?   It's a common issue with municipalities where staff and families are evacuated aware from the danger area and then critical gaps are exposed because the limited number of trained staff are not around.


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## foresterab (24 Oct 2022)

mariomike said:


> CAN TF-3 deployed to Elliot Lake, ON.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Thanks Mariomike.    Just don't hear as much about Ontario resources being out west and I hadn't heard the Ontario counterparts discuss them much.


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## Colin Parkinson (24 Oct 2022)

Halifax Tar said:


> Don't forget if BC goes down the tube the USA is also probably busy with their share of the disaster.
> 
> I imagine we (Canada) would be on our own for sometime.


I suggested that a massive earthquake in the Greater Vancouver Region, would create enough chaos below the border to suck up the resources in Ft Lewis and Washington State. Likely the US would mobilize resources to our aid from the States outside the affected area with heavy equipment crossing the border within 3-4 days. I would expect them to have a great deal of helicopters into the area and operating SAR and supply within 24hrs and likley the focus would be to get Abbotsford airport up and operational again. My guess is that YVR and Boundary bay would both be a real mess and possibly flooded.
Within a week I would expect the US to have 1-2 amphibious ships in the harbour assisting in rescue and movement of people and supplies. About this time I would expect a smattering of CAF resources finally working their way through the mountains and slowly working their way west, depending on the level of damage there. They would have minimal equipment to bring to the effort sadly and a lot may get consumed just getting to the Lower Mainland.
I would expect a RCN warship and possibly a MCDV into the harbour within 24 hours, depending on how much damage is done to Victoria and Esquimalt. However that just brings a few RHIB's to the game and maybe a hundred sailors to assist. The MCDV might be useful to survey the narrows to determine the viability of getting rescue ships into the harbour. all depending on whether a major bridge collapses or is in danger of such. Once Abbotsford is open, I see the RCAF playing a big role in moving supplies in. 

We will all be thankfully that we live beside the US, because they will pull out all the stops to help us, with no delay.


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## daftandbarmy (24 Oct 2022)

Colin Parkinson said:


> I suggested that a massive earthquake in the Greater Vancouver Region, would create enough chaos below the border to suck up the resources in Ft Lewis and Washington State. Likely the US would mobilize resources to our aid from the States outside the affected area with heavy equipment crossing the border within 3-4 days. I would expect them to have a great deal of helicopters into the area and operating SAR and supply within 24hrs and likley the focus would be to get Abbotsford airport up and operational again. My guess is that YVR and Boundary bay would both be a real mess and possibly flooded.
> Within a week I would expect the US to have 1-2 amphibious ships in the harbour assisting in rescue and movement of people and supplies. About this time I would expect a smattering of CAF resources finally working their way through the mountains and slowly working their way west, depending on the level of damage there. They would have minimal equipment to bring to the effort sadly and a lot may get consumed just getting to the Lower Mainland.
> I would expect a RCN warship and possibly a MCDV into the harbour within 24 hours, depending on how much damage is done to Victoria and Esquimalt. However that just brings a few RHIB's to the game and maybe a hundred sailors to assist. The MCDV might be useful to survey the narrows to determine the viability of getting rescue ships into the harbour. all depending on whether a major bridge collapses or is in danger of such. Once Abbotsford is open, I see the RCAF playing a big role in moving supplies in.
> 
> We will all be thankfully that we live beside the US, because they will pull out all the stops to help us, with no delay.



My personal emergency kit will include air marker panels and a case of whisky - with the universally acknowledged air indicator to attract passing helicopter pilots


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## Halifax Tar (24 Oct 2022)

Colin Parkinson said:


> I suggested that a massive earthquake in the Greater Vancouver Region, would create enough chaos below the border to suck up the resources in Ft Lewis and Washington State. Likely the US would mobilize resources to our aid from the States outside the affected area with heavy equipment crossing the border within 3-4 days. I would expect them to have a great deal of helicopters into the area and operating SAR and supply within 24hrs and likley the focus would be to get Abbotsford airport up and operational again. My guess is that YVR and Boundary bay would both be a real mess and possibly flooded.
> Within a week I would expect the US to have 1-2 amphibious ships in the harbour assisting in rescue and movement of people and supplies. About this time I would expect a smattering of CAF resources finally working their way through the mountains and slowly working their way west, depending on the level of damage there. They would have minimal equipment to bring to the effort sadly and a lot may get consumed just getting to the Lower Mainland.
> I would expect a RCN warship and possibly a MCDV into the harbour within 24 hours, depending on how much damage is done to Victoria and Esquimalt. However that just brings a few RHIB's to the game and maybe a hundred sailors to assist. The MCDV might be useful to survey the narrows to determine the viability of getting rescue ships into the harbour. all depending on whether a major bridge collapses or is in danger of such. Once Abbotsford is open, I see the RCAF playing a big role in moving supplies in.
> 
> We will all be thankfully that we live beside the US, because they will pull out all the stops to help us, with no delay.



I hope you are right. But I suspect _"the big one"_ may be catastrophic all along the pacific coast.  Unless the west coast Navy puts to sea and moves far away they will probably be in much similar state to Victoria.  Unfortunately we don't get the kind of warnings for earthquakes that we do for hurricanes and the like.

J. L. Granatstein covers this very scenario in the opening chapter of one of his books.


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## lenaitch (24 Oct 2022)

mariomike said:


> CAN TF-3 deployed to Elliot Lake, ON.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


If I recall, there were command and control issues during that deployment; both between responder agencies and levels of government.  I know incident management was addressed in the Public Inquiry but I don't know what changes, if any, have been made in the intervening years.  Layer that on travel times in this fair land (6-ish hours Toronto to Elliot Lake) and the effectiveness of complex emergency response diminishes away from major urban centres.  I do believe HUSAR funding and training has been spread out to additional fire services in the province.

The OPP also has a CBRN unit but it is not large.

As mentioned, 'a big one' would have a major impact on high-level incident command, as well as mobility and communication for responders.  Hardening of things like comm towers and the like are often a tough sell in government budgets.


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## daftandbarmy (4 Dec 2022)

Forget the 'Big One'. It seems that we can't even be ready for the first big snowfall of the year:


Councillors in Metro Vancouver call for 'snow summit' to better prepare for snowstorms​ 
Transportation ministry says it is open to meeting with municipal officials, transit authorities​


Two Metro Vancouver councillors are trying to organize a "snow summit" that would bring together municipal leaders, provincial officials, transit authorities and maintenance contractors to discuss how to co-ordinate and improve the region's response to major snowfalls.

Surrey Coun. Linda Annis and New Westminster Counc. Daniel Fontaine co-signed a letter on Thursday, calling for an analysis of the breakdowns that choked Metro Vancouver roads and highways during the snowstorm earlier in the week.

They are asking George Harvey, chair of the Metro Vancouver Regional District, and B.C. Minister of Transportation Rob Fleming to bring municipal officials, leaders and transportation agencies like ICBC together for a meeting.

On Tuesday, 20 centimetres of snow blanketed municipalities across B.C.'s South Coast, causing major traffic congestion and vehicle pileups, effectively paralyzing road transportation in the Lower Mainland.

"Winters are getting colder and colder," she told CBC News when asked what she wanted discussed at the summit.

"Do we have enough budget allocated? Do we have enough equipment and manpower to be able to handle these snowstorms?




			https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/metro-vancouver-councillors-snow-summit-1.6673680


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## dimsum (4 Dec 2022)

daftandbarmy said:


> Forget the 'Big One'. It seems that we can't even be ready for the first big snowfall of the year:
> 
> 
> Councillors in Metro Vancouver call for 'snow summit' to better prepare for snowstorms​
> ...


Some of those people will finally need to buy snow shovels and winter tires.


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## daftandbarmy (4 Dec 2022)

dimsum said:


> Some of those people will finally need to buy snow shovels and winter tires.
> 
> View attachment 75298



But it's so much fun to watch!



			https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/2130360899924


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## mariomike (4 Dec 2022)

dimsum said:


> Some of those people will finally need to buy snow shovels and winter tires.
> 
> View attachment 75298



"Backboard and collar for all" nightmares.


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## daftandbarmy (10 Dec 2022)




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