# Deindustrialization of Canada



## Humphrey Bogart (17 Nov 2019)

So this happened in my hometown last week:



> *Glencore to close Brunswick Lead Smelter in Belledune, N.B., cut 420 jobs*
> 
> Glencore Canada Corp. has announced the permanent closure of the Brunswick Lead Smelter in Belledune, N.B., resulting in the loss of 420 jobs.
> 
> The town’s mayor, Joe Noel, got the news of the closure Wednesday morning in a meeting with officials from Glencore. “It’s a blow to the whole northern New Brunswick area,” he said in an interview. “It’s devastating, but we are resilient people. We will find a way around this, and we’ll do what we have to do.”



More at the link:
https://globalnews.ca/news/6162514/glencore-to-close-brunswick-lead-smelter-in-belledune-n-b-by-year-end/

Yet another large factory with good paying jobs goes the way of the dinosaur in that part of Canada.  A combination of carbon taxes, environmental lobbying and union job action put one the few facilities of it's kind left in NA out of business.

Glencore of course says the Union strike, which has been on going since April, had nothing to do with it but everyone knows that's a lie.  Especially considering they cancelled the recent $60 million in upgrades to the facility and warned the workers the strike was putting the facility in jeopardy.

The Union thought they could take Glencore on because they would never risk losing the license to operate this facility in NA as they would never get another one in the current political climate.  Boy were they wrong.  

This follows the closure of all the paper mills in Northern NB as well as the massive Brunswick Mining Camp.  There is still one mine open that is run by Trevali (which is 25% owned by Glencore btw) but it shipped all its lead concentrate to this particular smelter.  I'm betting it closes in a year or two as it's considerably more expensive to operate than their other holdings in Africa and South America.

End of an era for my family and the region, many of whom worked in the mining industry, including my brother. 
Canada is most definitely closed for business.


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## Navy_Pete (17 Nov 2019)

Watched this happen as a kid growing up in Hamilton in the 80s; at one point something like 100,000+ people were employed at the 2 big steel mills and a few smaller ones (both directly and via subcontractor support). Plus there was all the various shops casting/machining parts for cars and heavy industry.

Most of those are now gone, and the ones remaining have contracted significantly, and Hamilton has become part of the Toronto commuter zone for the kind of white collar jobs that will disappear in the next stock market crash.

Asked the question years ago at an NSS townhall; if we are going to have strategic industrial capabilities (like automaking, shipbuilding etc), why don't we also have strategic considerations for processing the raw materials?  For example, no one in Canada can produce the steel required for our ships, so all had to be ordered internationally.

Get that people don't like the smell and pollution that goes hand in hand with industrial activities, but it seems stupid to have a wealth of natural resources, but have to rely on other countries (including China) to have it turned into a useful product.


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## Humphrey Bogart (17 Nov 2019)

Navy_Pete said:
			
		

> Watched this happen as a kid growing up in Hamilton in the 80s; at one point something like 100,000+ people were employed at the 2 big steel mills and a few smaller ones (both directly and via subcontractor support). Plus there was all the various shops casting/machining parts for cars and heavy industry.
> 
> Most of those are now gone, and the ones remaining have contracted significantly, and Hamilton has become part of the Toronto commuter zone for the kind of white collar jobs that will disappear in the next stock market crash.
> 
> ...



The real crazy thing about this is that these are highly skilled tradesmen jobs that are being lost.

Most of my friends and family that worked in the Mining Industry in and around Bathurst all still work in the Mining Industry, they have just become Mining Mercenaries selling their skills to the highest bidder elsewhere, Burkina Faso, Niger, South Africa, Australia, Peru, Ecuador, etc.  

I have no idea how a country with such abundant Natural Resources can neglect it's resource industries so much?


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## YZT580 (18 Nov 2019)

Why?  Does the expression 'fly-over' sound familiar?  Working stiffs are not cool people.  They don't drink latte's and they don't buy the Toronto Star.  Not only that but if you try to shake their hands you will find that they are rough and there is often dirt under their nails.  Although they pay the bills they don't call the tune so often as not, they are ignored and the loss of their jobs and skills doesn't even register.  To the in crowd they are simply unavoidable casualties in the war against global warming.  Most of our industrial jobs are vanishing because of two factors: high energy costs, government restrictions all coupled with high labour costs.  For labour costs think of Caterpillar in Brampton or, the steel mills in Hamilton.  Government has killed the oil industry in the Prairies and high energy costs helped drive GM out of Ontario. 

These are the people that, in the states, voted Trump and may become a potent force in Canada if the right leader comes forward. For the people making the choices right now do not represent the majority.


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## daftandbarmy (18 Nov 2019)

Meanwhile, in 'Amazing Alabama'...


Canadian-based Canfor establishing U.S. headquarters in Mobile

https://amazingalabama.com/2017/01/25/canadian-based-canfor-establishing-u-s-headquarters-in-mobile/

And many other Canada forest companies are jumping ship for the southern states because, guess what, America _is _great again (and Canada ain't so hot, unless you're a triggered environmentalist).


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## The Bread Guy (18 Nov 2019)

daftandbarmy said:
			
		

> Meanwhile, in 'Amazing Alabama'...
> 
> 
> Canadian-based Canfor establishing U.S. headquarters in Mobile
> ...


To be fair to the rabid environmentalists out there, there's a bigger, more silent elephant in the room with this industry.  

This is far from the first forestry company shutting up shop and/or moving ever since the U.S. started softwood lumber tariffs around the time of the Falklands War.  

Most recently from the U.S. (April 2017), for example ...


> The Trump administration is hitting Canada with stiff tariffs of up to 24% on lumber shipped into the United States ...  The tariffs -- also called duties -- ranged from 3% to 24% on five specific Canadian lumber companies. For all other Canadian lumber companies, there's a nearly 20% tariff on exports to the US.  The five firms were: West Fraser Mills, Tolko Marketing and Sales, J.D. Irving, *Canfor Corporation*, and Resolute FP Canada. West Fraser Mills will pay the highest duty of 24%.  The duties were imposed to create a level playing field for American lumber companies ...



Both Team Blue & Team Red governments since then haven't been able to fully wrestle free for long in spite of trade panels saying, "no, Canadian lumber imports are _not_ hurting U.S. markets". 

My read of this is that it's not so much tree-huggers as "Big Wood U.S." being able to twist arms harder and longer than "Big Wood Canada" here.


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## mariomike (18 Nov 2019)

daftandbarmy said:
			
		

> , America _is _great again



Amazing. Considering only 46.1% voted to "make America great again".

If 2018 was a referendum on "keeping it great", we saw how that went.



			
				daftandbarmy said:
			
		

> (and Canada ain't so hot, unless you're a triggered environmentalist).



It's cold. But, like many other Canadians, I'm happy to call it home. 



			
				milnews.ca said:
			
		

> This is far from the first forestry company shutting up shop and/or moving ever since the U.S. started softwood lumber tariffs around the time of the Falklands War.



Good point.


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## NavyShooter (18 Nov 2019)

I deliberately switched my investment portfolio to focus on OUTCAN - my opinion of our market stability is low.  Some major concerns in our resource industry have echos throughout our economy....here are a couple I've seen in the news recently and have my eye on:

-1600 jobs in the rail sector set to be lost (CP rail I think it was?  This is a HUGE indicator on our economic outlook...rail is a key indicator of our domestic product.)
-Northern Pulp in NS unlikely to meet environmental criteria next month and will likely have to close (the company has threatened this) which will result in hundreds of lost jobs in an area that can ill afford to lose them

I'm not optimistic about our economic future under a 'grow it from the heart' and 'the budget will balance itself' leadership...

NS


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## Humphrey Bogart (18 Nov 2019)

NavyShooter said:
			
		

> I deliberately switched my investment portfolio to focus on OUTCAN - my opinion of our market stability is low.  Some major concerns in our resource industry have echos throughout our economy....here are a couple I've seen in the news recently and have my eye on:
> 
> -1600 jobs in the rail sector set to be lost (CP rail I think it was?  This is a HUGE indicator on our economic outlook...rail is a key indicator of our domestic product.)
> -Northern Pulp in NS unlikely to meet environmental criteria next month and will likely have to close (the company has threatened this) which will result in hundreds of lost jobs in an area that can ill afford to lose them
> ...



I don't invest in any Canadian companies, except Utilities and some Real Estate.  Most of my money is parked in the S&P 500 and International Markets.

Any time a railroad is laying off workers, you know things are not good as they are expecting a downturn in products to move.


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## Bruce Monkhouse (18 Nov 2019)

mariomike said:
			
		

> Amazing. Considering only 46.1% voted to "make America great again".



Doesn't hearing the same song in your head over and over and over again start to drive you insane???


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## mariomike (18 Nov 2019)

Bruce Monkhouse said:
			
		

> Doesn't hearing the same song in your head over and over and over again start to drive you insane???



I was replying to this,



			
				daftandbarmy said:
			
		

> , America _is _great again



MAGA belongs in Global Politics.

If you prefer to exchange one-line personal insults, I'll leave you to it.


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## QV (18 Nov 2019)

MM, considering the US economy is on fire while Canada's is in a death spiral, I 'd say Bruce Monkhouse has a point.  

The US is reaping the rewards of a Trump presidency whether all of the citizens like it or not, and Canadians are losing jobs by the train load across the country.  Both results are directly related to the policies enacted by each respective government.


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## mariomike (18 Nov 2019)

QV said:
			
		

> The US is reaping the rewards of a Trump presidency whether all of the citizens like it or not, and Canadians are losing jobs by the train load across the country.



I guess voters reap what they sow.


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## Underway (18 Nov 2019)

Lot of negativity here.  Canada's economy is not in a death spiral.  Not even close.  However there is a recession coming, including the US as the sugar high of Trump tax cuts run their course and the diet of trade wars begin.

As for NB.  East Coast unionism meets social welfare state and UK pre-Thatcher happens. The province is screwed geographically and has little to no resources that can't be made, bought or dug up elsewhere at much lower cost.  All the youth of NB know this and move to Halifax or head out west.  I highly doubt carbon taxes had much to do with this situation as it was happening well before the current trend to environmentalism.

As for Hamilton.  Stelco (or whatever its called now) is making more steel on their one modern line than they ever did on their four older lines.  Steel manufacturing  is much safer, and faster when its automated.  The city itself has plenty to offer besides a Toronto commute town. That would be doing the place a disservice. I know plenty who are moving back from TO because of jobs, property and the lifestyle is more their speed.  Lots going on in medical research, materials, steel, services, the port is booming again with agriculture shipping etc...


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## daftandbarmy (18 Nov 2019)

Underway said:
			
		

> Lot of negativity here.  Canada's economy is not in a death spiral.  Not even close.  However there is a recession coming, including the US as the sugar high of Trump tax cuts run their course and the diet of trade wars begin.
> 
> As for NB.  East Coast unionism meets social welfare state and UK pre-Thatcher happens. The province is screwed geographically and has little to no resources that can't be made, bought or dug up elsewhere at much lower cost.  All the youth of NB know this and move to Halifax or head out west.  I highly doubt carbon taxes had much to do with this situation as it was happening well before the current trend to environmentalism.
> 
> As for Hamilton.  Stelco (or whatever its called now) is making more steel on their one modern line than they ever did on their four older lines.  Steel manufacturing  is much safer, and faster when its automated.  The city itself has plenty to offer besides a Toronto commute town. That would be doing the place a disservice. I know plenty who are moving back from TO because of jobs, property and the lifestyle is more their speed.  Lots going on in medical research, materials, steel, services, the port is booming again with agriculture shipping etc...



Meanwhile, big capital is heading south (or elsewhere) along with Encana, other big businesses, and the snowbirds: 

Jack Mintz: Here’s why investment into Canada isn’t the happy story Ottawa’s telling

Actually inflows have been down since 2013 as foreign capital interest in Canada has fallen off sharply

https://business.financialpost.com/opinion/jack-mintz-heres-why-investment-into-canada-isnt-the-happy-story-ottawas-telling


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## Altair (18 Nov 2019)

QV said:
			
		

> MM, considering the US economy is on fire while Canada's is in a death spiral, I 'd say Bruce Monkhouse has a point.
> 
> The US is reaping the rewards of a Trump presidency whether all of the citizens like it or not, and Canadians are losing jobs by the train load across the country.  Both results are directly related to the policies enacted by each respective government.


Interesting point there.

The current US budget deficit is 804 billion dollars. Going off of the conventional wisdom of the USA being ten times bigger than Canada, the Canadian equivalent to that would 80 billion dollars, dollar for dollar. If we were to factor in the exchange rate, it would be around 100 billion Canadian dollars in order to have that American economy that is on fire.


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## Humphrey Bogart (18 Nov 2019)

Underway said:
			
		

> Lot of negativity here.  Canada's economy is not in a death spiral.  Not even close.  However there is a recession coming, including the US as the sugar high of Trump tax cuts run their course and the diet of trade wars begin.
> 
> As for NB.  East Coast unionism meets social welfare state and UK pre-Thatcher happens. The province is screwed geographically and has little to no resources that can't be made, bought or dug up elsewhere at much lower cost.  All the youth of NB know this and move to Halifax or head out west.  I highly doubt carbon taxes had much to do with this situation as it was happening well before the current trend to environmentalism.
> 
> As for Hamilton.  Stelco (or whatever its called now) is making more steel on their one modern line than they ever did on their four older lines.  Steel manufacturing  is much safer, and faster when its automated.  The city itself has plenty to offer besides a Toronto commute town. That would be doing the place a disservice. I know plenty who are moving back from TO because of jobs, property and the lifestyle is more their speed.  Lots going on in medical research, materials, steel, services, the port is booming again with agriculture shipping etc...



Firstly, I did not say that carbon taxation was the only thing that caused the decline in industry but it is definitely a factor.

I can tell you that the carbon tax has an effect on industry in NB as it will drastically increase the price of electricity as over 50% of electrical generation in NB is fossil fuel.  

The Glencore Smelter is right next to one of Canada's newest and most modern Coal Power Plants (built in the 90s) it is now probably closing within the next 5-10 years unless the province comes up with a plan to convert the plant to something else (I used to work there btw).  

Between the Orimulsion fiasco, the requirement to completely rebuild the Mactaquac Dam in the near future, the cost overruns of the Point Lepreau rebuild, NB Power is in a long term world of hurt in the next few years. They should have sold the Corporation to Hydro Quebec ten years ago but NBers are stupid so they didn't.  

I used to work for NB Power, all of these issues we are running in to were foreseen 10-15 years ago but politicians do as they always do, kick the can down the curb until we reach critical failure.

I agree with you on Unions though.  The proof is in the pudding, the only factories and mills operating in NB are all Irving Owned or Non-Unionized.  

The Paper Mill in Bathurst that closed in 2005 closed under the exact same situation the Smelter now finds itself, Union leadership threatening strike action under the premise the Smurfit-Stone would never dare close the most modern containerboard plant in NA considering they had just spent $40 million in upgrades, wrong again!

Glencore Smelter is only partially Unionized, the non-unionized employees have all been offered work elsewhere by Glencore with cost-moves, etc to other plants.  The company looks after those who are loyal to it.



			
				daftandbarmy said:
			
		

> Meanwhile, big capital is heading south (or elsewhere) along with Encana, other big businesses, and the snowbirds:
> 
> Jack Mintz: Here’s why investment into Canada isn’t the happy story Ottawa’s telling
> 
> ...



The only jobs that will be left in Canada are service industry jobs.  All the Liberal Artists can work at Starbucks making $15 bucks an hour with their $40k student debt.

A key indicator for me as to the fragility of the current economy is the TSX Venture exchange which is populated mostly by Junior Resource Companies and Tech Startups.  These are the people that pioneer and develop new resources, ways of doing things and are responsible for the Netflix and Amazons in America.

The TSXV for the past five years is the worst performing stock exchange in the World.  Worse than Greece, worse than anywhere.  You cannot raise capital if you are a startup in Canada.

We are going to slowly become much like France, a shitty little country known for Wine & Cheese but not much else.


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## Kirkhill (18 Nov 2019)

The Glencore Smelter is right next to one of Canada's newest and most modern Coal Power Plants (built in the 90s) it is now probably closing within the next 5-10 years unless the province comes up with a plan to convert the plant to something else (I used to work there btw). 

Maybe they can do like the Brits and convert it to burning Georgia pines.



> Last year, 6m tonnes of “wood pellets” harvested from forests in Louisiana, Georgia, Florida, Alabama and Virginia were shipped across the Atlantic, to be burnt in renewable “biomass” power plants. This was almost double the 2013 figure – the US “wood pellet” industry is booming.
> 
> Demand is largely driven by European countries wanting to meet targets set out in the EU’s Renewable Energy Directive. Half of the pellets exported from the US were used to generate electricity in Britain’s massive Drax power station, which is slowly converting from coal to biomass in order to reduce carbon emissions and claim valuable “Renewable Obligation certificates” for green electricity. So can it really be sustainable to transport wood halfway round the world to burn in a power station?



http://theconversation.com/british-power-stations-are-burning-wood-from-us-forests-to-meet-renewables-targets-54969



> Full firing with biomass
> 
> In September 2012 *Drax Group announced the conversion to full firing with biomass of three of its six units*. The first unit was scheduled to be online by June 2013, the second unit in 2014, and the third by 2017; initially a biomass supply had been secured for the first unit. The cost was estimated at £700 million ($1.13 billion), including modifications to fuel mills and boilers and the construction of storage structures and conveyors for the wood pellet fuel. *Each unit will consume about 2.3 million tonnes of biomass yearly*, requiring *an estimated annual total of 7.5 million tonnes in 2017*. This is equivalent to *two-thirds of Europe's entire energy biomass consumption* in 2010, and *requires 1,200,000 ha (4,600 sq mi; 12,000 km2) of forest to supply on a continuous basis*.[70][71] North America was expected to be the source of the vast majority of the biomass, although some would be domestically sourced willow and elephant grass.[72]



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drax_Power_Station

The harvestable area required is about twice the area of PEI or 16 % of New Brunswick.

There is a reason why the Prince Bishops of Durham got into the coal business 800 years ago.  The could grow trees fast enough to burn them.


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## Brad Sallows (18 Nov 2019)

It's an interesting experiment.  What happens when you yank out the reasons communities came to be in the first place - is the local service economy self-sustaining?  This plays out differently depending on community size; at one extreme are the large cities which barely notice the loss of a major employer, and at the other are the company towns.  Either a contraction can be absorbed, or it can't.


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## Cloud Cover (18 Nov 2019)

We have lost some major strategic industrial and national infrastructure capabilities, and along with that the skills to recover and re-establish the same:

- railway locomotives
- significant reduction in steel production
- forestry is rapidly receding
- do we produce heavy construction equipment, heavy haul transport trucks anymore? 
- specialist welding and metal fabrication facilities are shuttering daily. Cannabis grow ops are not anywhere near a suitable replacement for a car factory, a plywood mill or the family farm. 

It’s a situation that makes us far too dependent on foreign suppliers, which harms our national self sufficiency and our security. 
Not everybody can be a real estate agent, personal support worker, blogger, civil rights lawyer, social worker or software gaming developer. We need industries and people who can build things, and we need these people to come from our own institutions, not from foreign populations.  Our blue collar roots have been outsourced at a time when these things are needed more than ever. Just my 0.02.


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## Altair (18 Nov 2019)

Brad Sallows said:
			
		

> It's an interesting experiment.  What happens when you yank out the reasons communities came to be in the first place - is the local service economy self-sustaining?  This plays out differently depending on community size; at one extreme are the large cities which barely notice the loss of a major employer, and at the other are the company towns.  Either a contraction can be absorbed, or it can't.


Service industries cover transportation, education, health care, construction, banking, communications, retail services, tourism and government.

5 out of 9 of those are wealth creators. 75 percent of Canadians have jobs in the service industry today.

So if a town loses a mill but has a tourism industry, then I would say the local service industry is self sustaining. 

Not all service jobs are low paying starbucks jobs.


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## daftandbarmy (18 Nov 2019)

Altair said:
			
		

> Service industries cover transportation, education, health care, construction, banking, communications, retail services, tourism and government.
> 
> 5 out of 9 of those are wealth creators. 75 percent of Canadians have jobs in the service industry today.
> 
> ...



But most of them are non-unionized which means short term, lower than a sawmill job paid by about half at least, low benefits, low support, low prestige....


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## Altair (18 Nov 2019)

Cloud Cover said:
			
		

> We have lost some major strategic industrial and national infrastructure capabilities, and along with that the skills to recover and re-establish the same:
> 
> - railway locomotives
> - significant reduction in steel production
> ...


Welcome to globalization I guess. It's happening all across the west. Fact of the matter is manufacturing like this can be done in the 3rd world at much cheaper costs which drive costs down and drive local companies out of business or to automate in order to compete. But by that same token, the savings are passed on to consumers. 

We have seen down south a large effort by the current president of the USA to turn back the clock, fight the forces of globalization, and the results have been less than encouraging.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/trump-tariffs-steelmakers-1.5348012



> U.S. President Donald Trump's move last year to tax imported steel triggered jeers but also cheers. Its goal — to raise steel prices — threatened to hurt the legions of U.S. manufacturers that depend on steel.
> 
> But at least it would benefit steel companies and the Americans who work for them. That was the idea, anyway.
> 
> ...



So it begs the question, is it better to fight the tide and try to isolate local markets from global competition or just accept that there is a bountiful amount of low cost manufactured goods available on the global market?


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## Altair (18 Nov 2019)

daftandbarmy said:
			
		

> But most of them are non-unionized which means short term, lower than a sawmill job paid by about half at least, low benefits, low support, low prestige....


Construction, Banking, communications, health care, education, and government jobs do not fit the definition of what you just said.


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## Blackadder1916 (18 Nov 2019)

daftandbarmy said:
			
		

> But most of them are non-unionized which means short term, lower than a sawmill job paid by about half at least, low benefits, low support, low prestige....





			
				Altair said:
			
		

> Construction, Banking, communications, health care, education, and government jobs do not fit the definition of what you just said.



The change from a "blue collar" to a "white collar" economy.  Those well paying entry level opportunities for high school graduates (or more likely dropouts) are not the same as when I started in the workforce (though of course for us Newfoundlanders that usually meant going away to a T.O. factory job or joining the army - see film "Going Down The Road").


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## The Bread Guy (18 Nov 2019)

Chris Pook said:
			
		

> ... Maybe they can do like the Brits and convert it to burning Georgia pines ...


Pro-tip:  don't do it this way ...


> High cost, lack of use shutters Thunder Bay Generating Station ... Following the Liberal government’s vow in 2013 to phase out all of the province’s coal-fired plants, the Thunder Bay Generating Station was shut down and, by 2015, had been converted to a biomass-fired facility, with the capacity to produce up to 306 megawatts of power, at a cost of $5 million.  Before the boiler failure, the plant was burning torrefied wood pellets *imported from the Norwegian company Arbaflame* ...


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## Humphrey Bogart (18 Nov 2019)

Altair said:
			
		

> Welcome to globalization I guess. It's happening all across the west. Fact of the matter is manufacturing like this can be done in the 3rd world at much cheaper costs which drive costs down and drive local companies out of business or to automate in order to compete. But by that same token, the savings are passed on to consumers.
> 
> We have seen down south a large effort by the current president of the USA to turn back the clock, fight the forces of globalization, and the results have been less than encouraging.
> 
> ...



Deloitte disagrees with you.  Since 2010,  competitiveness of countries like the US, Germany, Japan and South Korea has risen.  In fact, in 2016 Deloitte predicted that the US would overtake China in manufacturing competitiveness through innovation and leveraging of technology.

Read the report(s) here:

https://www2.deloitte.com/global/en/pages/manufacturing/articles/global-manufacturing-competitiveness-index.html#

Canada's competitiveness is declining though.  Mostly due to the fact our labour & associated costs are as high as the US but our productivity per worker is about $30k lower.

Here are some key findings from that report:



> Report highlights:
> 
> *China and the United States jockey for top honors while Germany holds firm
> *
> ...



So countries like Germany, Japan, South Korea and the US can be even more competitive than any developing country but it takes the right set of Government policies and initiatives to fuel that competitiveness.  We are seeing none of that in Canada.  

The CBCs suggestion that there is capital flight from the United States doesn't hold up to the movement of the market the past couple of years.  The American Stock Market is booming right now.  

I'll be interested to see Deloitte's report next year.


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## Altair (18 Nov 2019)

Humphrey Bogart said:
			
		

> Deloitte disagrees with you.  Since 2010,  competitiveness of countries like the US, Germany, Japan and South Korea has risen.  In fact, in 2016 Deloitte predicted that the US would overtake China in manufacturing competitiveness through innovation and leveraging of technology.
> 
> Read the report(s) here:
> 
> ...


The CBC article I quoted was focused on the US steel industry.

Check the US Steel stocks by the way, they are way lower as well, even though the US stock market is doing well. US steel is a easy target because the US President was laser focused on that industry, and the results have been less than encouraging.

You are correct that Canadian competitiveness is declining, and it hasn't been strong for quite some time, but I again question the importance of this. Is there a great need to be a manufacturing giant? Is there a need to have a domestic industry battling global giants like the USA and China when we can simply buy cheaper from a global marketplace?


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## daftandbarmy (18 Nov 2019)

Altair said:
			
		

> You are correct that Canadian competitiveness is declining, and it hasn't been strong for quite some time, but I again question the importance of this. Is there a great need to be a manufacturing giant? Is there a need to have a domestic industry battling global giants like the USA and China when we can simply buy cheaper from a global marketplace?



Because if you're not a post-industrial economy, you are a pre-industrial economy a.k.a. poor and third world like:


Six Reasons Manufacturing is Central to the Economy

4. Global trade is based on goods, not services

A country can’t trade services for most of its goods. According to the WTO, 80% of world trade among regions is merchandise trade — that is, only 20% of world trade is in services. This closely matches the trade percentages that even the US, allegedly becoming “post-industrial,” achieves. If in the extreme case an economy was composed only of services, then it would be very poor, because it couldn’t trade for goods; its currency would be worth very little. The dollar is also vulnerable in the long-term. A “post-industrial” economy is really a pre-industrial economy — that is, poor.

https://rooseveltinstitute.org/six-reasons-manufacturing-central-economy/

By the way, I don't have a thing for the Roosevelt institute, I just Googled 'why manufacturing is important to the economy' and this was the first item that popped up....


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## Altair (18 Nov 2019)

daftandbarmy said:
			
		

> Because if you're not a post-industrial economy, you are a pre-industrial economy a.k.a. poor and third world like:
> 
> 
> Six Reasons Manufacturing is Central to the Economy
> ...


This is a very simplistic take on this.

China, Vietnam, Malaysia, India, sure they are manufacturing a lot, but are they high tech, high value items? Is there value in textile manufacturing, or cheap plastic? Are these manufacturing nations creating the companies that are doing this manufacturing or are they simply providing the labour, which these companies take back to their home nation, with the profits and investment with them?

Simply manufacture more isn't an answer. Would Canada even want these jobs that so called giants like India and China have?


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## QV (18 Nov 2019)

Humphrey Bogart said:
			
		

> So countries like Germany, Japan, South Korea and the US can be even more competitive than any developing country but it takes the right set of _Government policies and initiatives to fuel that competitiveness.  We are seeing none of that in Canada_.



That is it right there.  

The microcosm of Bay Street can't exist without base industries to fuel a country.


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## mariomike (18 Nov 2019)

Blackadder1916 said:
			
		

> The change from a "blue collar" to a "white collar" economy.  Those well paying entry level opportunities for high school graduates (or more likely dropouts) are not the same as when I started in the workforce (though of course for us Newfoundlanders that usually meant going away to a T.O. factory job or joining the army - see film "Going Down The Road").



And when that didn't work out they pawned their rented colour TV set for money in order to make it out to Western Canada.


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## Humphrey Bogart (18 Nov 2019)

Altair said:
			
		

> This is a very simplistic take on this.
> 
> China, Vietnam, Malaysia, India, sure they are manufacturing a lot, but are they high tech, high value items? Is there value in textile manufacturing, or cheap plastic? Are these manufacturing nations creating the companies that are doing this manufacturing or are they simply providing the labour, which these companies take back to their home nation, with the profits and investment with them?
> 
> Simply manufacture more isn't an answer. Would Canada even want these jobs that so called giants like India and China have?



We at one time had world class companies in many industries.  These were global leaders in Mining, Metallurgy, Paper & Forestry, Telecommunications, Robotics, etc.
































All gone now, all allowed to be raided by marauders.  Imagine the Germans letting someone come in and smash Volkswagen to pieces?  Or the Japanese losing control of Toyota or the South Koreans Hyundai?  Can you?  I can't.

Well that's what we allowed to happen to our industrial base in this country.


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## QV (18 Nov 2019)

mariomike said:
			
		

> And when that didn't work out they pawned their rented colour TV set for money in order* to make it out to Western Canada*.



... for the O&G industry, oh wait!!


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## Altair (18 Nov 2019)

Humphrey Bogart said:
			
		

> We at one time had world class companies in many industries.  These were global leaders in Mining, Metallurgy, Paper & Forestry, Telecommunications, Robotics, etc.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


And yet we are still one of the richest nations on the planet,  still have had comparable GDP growth to the G8 nations,  and our standard of living hasn't dropped.  Curious,  no?


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## Humphrey Bogart (18 Nov 2019)

Altair said:
			
		

> And yet we are still one of the richest nations on the planet,  still have had comparable GDP growth to the G8 nations,  and our standard of living hasn't dropped.  Curious,  no?



Our standard of living is dropping when you account for the increased size of our workforce and its growth due to families being dual income as opposed to single income now, don't believe me?  Look here:

https://blogs.ubc.ca/newdealforfamilies/declining-standard-of-living/

30%  larger workforce due to women now working as opposed to staying at home, but household income has basically flatlined.  Couple this with increased housing costs and you can see the problem I hope?

Then there is this little issue:






Source:  https://inflationcalculator.ca/why-canada-needs-to-pay-attention-to-inflation-and-interest-rates-south-of-the-border/

I could keep pace with Joneses to if I went out today and maxed out my line or credit and credit cards.  Canadians are living off borrowed money.


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## daftandbarmy (18 Nov 2019)

Humphrey Bogart said:
			
		

> I could keep pace with Joneses to if I went out today and maxed out my line or credit and credit cards.  Canadians_, like Canada, _are living off borrowed money.



There... FTFY


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## Infanteer (18 Nov 2019)

Wonder what effect this has?


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## Humphrey Bogart (18 Nov 2019)

Infanteer said:
			
		

> Wonder what effect this has?



I don't really know what those numbers are measuring and I don't think they are right.

Walmart is by far the largest company in the United States followed by Exxon Mobil although Apple is catching up.

This metric is telling:

Global 100 list of the 100 biggest companies in the world:

https://fortune.com/global500/2019/search/

Canada does not have one company listed, while every other G7 Country does.  Even some non-G7 countries like Taiwan, South Korea and the Netherlands make the list.


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## mariomike (18 Nov 2019)

Blackadder1916 said:
			
		

> Those well paying entry level opportunities for high school graduates (or more likely dropouts) are not the same as when I started in the workforce



Some employers want more now. I was a high school graduate. My only work experience was the PRes. 

Now they expect this,
https://utsc.calendar.utoronto.ca/specialist-joint-program-paramedicine-science


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## Infanteer (18 Nov 2019)

Humphrey Bogart said:
			
		

> I don't really know what those numbers are measuring and I don't think they are right.



The numbers are valuation - Apple is more valuable than Walmart.  100 years ago, a steel company was the most valuable company in the world's largest economy.  50 years ago, a computer company was the most valuable company in the world's largest economy.  Now, a information software/app company is the most valuable company in the world's largest economy.  What should this tell us about our economy?

The "so what," to me at least, is that the information age economy does not value making stuff - Ricardo doesn't buy his port from England.  I don't dismiss the concerns with the economy, and there are trends that have me concerned, but I need to be convinced that the loss in quantity of resource extraction plants is a sign of bad times.  Having hundreds of Canadians sitting in an assembly or processing line is an industrial age mode of employment.  There are a few sources out there, but it seems to me that Canada earns it money with banking (5 of the top 10 most valuable companies in the country are banks), insurance, and telecoms.  We make port, not wool!

I come from small pulp and paper town in B.C. and it is down to one mill.  I am told (anecdotally, I wish I could find figures) that the one mill now spits out as many board feet as four or five of the older mills combined.  If that's the case, then all the better, as industry is evolving.


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## Altair (18 Nov 2019)

Humphrey Bogart said:
			
		

> Our standard of living is dropping when you account for the increased size of our workforce and its growth due to families being dual income as opposed to single income now, don't believe me?  Look here:
> 
> https://blogs.ubc.ca/newdealforfamilies/declining-standard-of-living/
> 
> ...


This kind of makes me upset to be honest. 

It states in the article that you posted that quantitative easing in the U.S. allowed the private sector to reduce its debt and worked to lower long-run interest rates. 

Meanwhile in Canada its been household debt doing largely the same thing. 

So in the USA,  trillions spent under Obama had the effect of lowering household debt,  and with Trumps tax cuts and massive 804 billion dollar deficits doing largely the same thing to propel the economy as opposed to households makes Canada look bad in comparison. 

But if Canada took the same route,  again,  going with the common USA is ten times the size of Canada,  Canada would need to be running deficits around 80 billion dollars a year! 

80 billion!  People are gripping (look at the post by daftandbarmy)   about deficits in the 20-30 billion dollar range,  complaining that the deficits the Canadian federal government is spending canada into the poor house,  but then point towards the economy that is pushing the equivalent of 80 billion dollars Canadian a year. 

It honestly makes me upset.


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## Brad Sallows (18 Nov 2019)

>So if a town loses a mill but has a tourism industry, then I would say the local service industry is self sustaining.

A town can have 3 or 4 major employers and suffer a local recession when one goes down; I know this empirically from experience.  And the value of each job is of secondary importance to whether or not people continue to have jobs.  Also relevant is the amount of taxes contributed to the municipal tax base.  A city which receives substantial revenues from a handful of major employers is vulnerable.

What I wonder - it's an open question - is at what point the "service economy" becomes a case of everyone doing each other's laundry when enough of the "old economy" jobs at the bottom of the inverted pyramid* disappear.  If substitution has already happened (eg. opening of a major post-secondary institution, re-location of some core public enterprise), there is a measure of protection.

*Bottom layer : resource, agriculture; second layer : processing and finishing; top layer : service.  100 years ago, a regular pyramid (broad base, narrower middle, narrower yet at the top).  Today, inverted.


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## Infanteer (18 Nov 2019)

Altair said:
			
		

> It honestly makes me upset.



Don't get upset at the internet, it is bad for your health.



			
				Brad Sallows said:
			
		

> What I wonder - it's an open question - is at what point the "service economy" becomes a case of everyone doing each other's laundry when enough of the "old economy" jobs at the bottom of the inverted pyramid* disappear.  If substitution has already happened (eg. opening of a major post-secondary institution, re-location of some core public enterprise), there is a measure of protection.



This is what I wonder too, and maybe I need to dig around C.D. Howe's website or something.  We can't all be baristas and bankers.  There has to be some percentage of the economy that actually makes things - whether that be boards or microchips is another question.  In an information age economy, what is a healthy level of relying on others to do your making, and to what level is a highly productive domestic industrial base needed to ensure a solid foundation?  The bank has to have someones money to invest, and the barista has to serve coffee to someone aside from the banker.


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## Brad Sallows (18 Nov 2019)

The problem with deficits is not so much the sustainability, provided there is no end-of-time at which all accounts come due (ie. everything keeps rolling over); the problem is the amount of public revenue not spent on public programs because it is spent servicing debt.

An aside: I continually encounter articles in which authors claim Canada has a spending problem; we don't.  What is true is that at one time (the FYs ending 1976-87) we had a spending problem.  With the exceptions of that period and the FYs ending 2010-11,  Canada's federal governments posted operating surpluses over more than 50 years (haven't looked at older data).  The existing accumulated deficit and almost the entirety of all the money paid out to service the debt originates with about $65B (nominal, not adjusted) worth of operating deficits during the 76-87 period.   That $65B has actually cost well over $1T (again, nominal).  It might have been money well spent, but I doubt whatever it bought was worth the total cost to date (and continuing).


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## Altair (19 Nov 2019)

Infanteer said:
			
		

> Don't get upset at the internet, it is bad for your health.


 I try to be here less often, I took a long break from this place and when I find myself needing to stop myself from writing something I might regret I take a break again.I do find it helps to put into writing how I feel as opposed to getting snarky or extremely sarcastic which may upset people.  





> This is what I wonder too, and maybe I need to dig around C.D. Howe's website or something.  We can't all be baristas and bankers.  There has to be some percentage of the economy that actually makes things - whether that be boards or microchips is another question.  In an information age economy, what is a healthy level of relying on others to do your making, and to what level is a highly productive domestic industrial base needed to ensure a solid foundation?  The bank has to have someones money to invest, and the barista has to serve coffee to someone aside from the banker.


Canada isn't just a nation of manufacturing though. 

We export a lot of agricultural products, we export a lot of energy,  wood,  minerals,  computing devices, electronics,  aerospace parts, cars. I feel like that's being overlooked. And due to automation,  we don't need as many people on the assembly line,  the farms,  the mines, to extract the same amount or more production. Which leaves more people in the service industry as a result. 

Just because flesh and blood humans are doing the labour doesnt mean the labour isn't being done,  wealth created and passed through the economy.


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## Humphrey Bogart (19 Nov 2019)

Altair said:
			
		

> This kind of makes me upset to be honest.
> 
> It states in the article that you posted that quantitative easing in the U.S. allowed the private sector to reduce its debt and worked to lower long-run interest rates.
> 
> ...



I was actually going to make a post about that.  Thanks for reminding me.

The problem with debt isn't the debt itself, it is the ability to repay that debt that matters. The US Debt is inconsequential at this time because even though it is high (it's not even the highest it has ever been relative to GDP btw) there is no risk of default to lenders.  

The US could eliminate the Federal Deficit if they wished. Relative to us, there practical tax rate is significantly less while their GDP per person is significantly more.

Canada Practical Tax = 28%
Canada Avg Salary = $48,688.00
Canada After Tax Take Home Pay = $35,299.00

US Practical Tax = 18%
US Avg Salary = $64,154.00
US After Tax Take Home Pay = $52,344.00

Source:  https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.businessinsider.com/tax-rates-take-home-salaries-40-countries-2018-5

So Americans pay 10% less in practical taxes while having larger salaries then Canadians.  Combined with their far lower household debt and you can see how the US Government debt isn't as precarious as it appears.  

If they paid our taxes, they would still have more money and would probably be well on their way to reversing the deficit.


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## Altair (19 Nov 2019)

Humphrey Bogart said:
			
		

> I was actually going to make a post about that.  Thanks for reminding me.
> 
> The problem with debt isn't the debt itself, it is the ability to repay that debt that matters. The US Debt is inconsequential at this time because even though it is high (it's not even the highest it has ever been relative to GDP btw) there is no risk of default to lenders.
> 
> ...


Many countries could eliminate their deficits and tackle their debt but its a painful process(Canada in the 90s,  Greece in the 2010s). The Americans are fortunate that their currency is the global benchmark and can be printed at will,  but it doesn't change the fact that comparing the Canadian economy to that of the Americans is a flawed exercise at best. Canadian household debt is continuing to grow,   but the Canadian federal government is keeping the debt to GDP somewhat stable. 

Meanwhile in the states they are pushing through what amounts to aggressive stimulas in order to continue to feed the economy and stock market,  and not tossing the burden on household debt. 

As a result,  I naturally don't expect Canada to be performing on the same level as the USA but that's due large part  to the fact that both countries are on wildly different fiscal strategies right now. 

Back to the topic at hand,  Canada,  you are correct that a lot of Canadas continued growth has been off the backs of consumers adding to their debt burden,  i wouldn't pick the USA as the best example as to how to sidestep that issue.  Not unless it is desireable for the government of Canada to pick up the tab instead.


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## ballz (19 Nov 2019)

Infanteer said:
			
		

> Don't get upset at the internet, it is bad for your health.
> 
> This is what I wonder too, and maybe I need to dig around C.D. Howe's website or something.  We can't all be baristas and bankers.  There has to be some percentage of the economy that actually makes things - whether that be boards or microchips is another question.



Well, today yes, but increasingly less. If you had a bunch of companies like Facebook, Google, Amazon, or other technology-based companies, whose services are being purchased by foreign countries, but that money is being paid into the domestic economy, then you really could get by without "making" anything. In this age you can sell lots of services to a foreign business, increasing the wealth in Canada.

It's really all about attracting wealth from outside the country, either through exports or having them somehow spend the money here. For example tourism, which is a horrible example of something to plan our economy around, but the point is tourists bring wealth from outside and leave it here, its the same net result as exporting goods.

With today's technological advances, you increasingly don't need to be offering a physical good (be it raw resources or value-added manufactured products) to bring wealth into the country.



			
				Altair said:
			
		

> Interesting point there.
> 
> The current US budget deficit is 804 billion dollars. Going off of the conventional wisdom of the USA being ten times bigger than Canada, the Canadian equivalent to that would 80 billion dollars, dollar for dollar. If we were to factor in the exchange rate, it would be around 100 billion Canadian dollars in order to have that American economy that is on fire.



Why would you tie population to the debt? I don't see how that is logical at all. Not many banks care more about how many employees you have than they do about your financial statements/performance.


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## Eaglelord17 (19 Nov 2019)

The biggest reason that industries are leaving/closing down is basically they are heavily subsidized in foreign countries by two main factors.

1) They employ basically slave labour to do the job (paying someone a wage that isn't acceptable in Canada or Europe). Plus they don't have to follow anywhere near the same health and safety standards.

2) They don't have to deal with environmental concerns or regulations. This one is huge as every time a factory closes down in Canada one that is polluting more into the environment is opening up in some lower standard country. It also costs much less to just dump the byproducts into the river instead of dealing with them.


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## Altair (19 Nov 2019)

ballz said:
			
		

> Well, today yes, but increasingly less. If you had a bunch of companies like Facebook, Google, Amazon, or other technology-based companies, whose services are being purchased by foreign countries, but that money is being paid into the domestic economy, then you really could get by without "making" anything. In this age you can sell lots of services to a foreign business, increasing the wealth in Canada.
> 
> It's really all about attracting wealth from outside the country, either through exports or having them somehow spend the money here. For example tourism, which is a horrible example of something to plan our economy around, but the point is tourists bring wealth from outside and leave it here, its the same net result as exporting goods.
> 
> ...


I didn't tie it to population,  I ties it to GDP. 

American GDP is around 19 trillion,  Canadian 1.6 trillion. Canadian GDP is approximately 8.5 percent of that of the USA.  Most just round up to 10.

8.5 percent of 804 billion,  68.3 billion. 

So shave off 12 billion off my rough projection if you want,  the point still is a ridiculous amount of money spent giving the econony a sugar high during the boom times.


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## The Bread Guy (19 Nov 2019)

Altair said:
			
		

> ... So if a town loses a mill but has a tourism industry, then I would say the local service industry is self sustaining.
> 
> Not all service jobs are low paying starbucks jobs.


But most tourism jobs pay a fair bit less than most mill jobs that are downsized, so "self-sustaining" may only be true re: number of workers, not necessarily bucks pulled in.


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## Colin Parkinson (19 Nov 2019)

Tourism is a fickle mistress, I used to travel all through BC and the Yukon and saw a lot of shuttered and abandoned Tourist related businesses. It depends a lot on currency exchange, fuel costs, political and social interference and what the current tourist fad is.


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## The Bread Guy (19 Nov 2019)

Colin P said:
			
		

> Tourism is a fickle mistress ...


True dat - more so than even predicting natural resources.


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## daftandbarmy (20 Nov 2019)

Colin P said:
			
		

> Tourism is a fickle mistress, I used to travel all through BC and the Yukon and saw a lot of shuttered and abandoned Tourist related businesses. It depends a lot on currency exchange, fuel costs, political and social interference and what the current tourist fad is.



Downtown Victoria is exactly the same, coincidentally.


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## QV (20 Nov 2019)

Tourists need a surplus of disposable income to tour around.  If there are significant job losses, a lack of confidence in the economy, and so on, there will be less tourists touring, or tourists touring less.  Granted many tourists are foreigners who are not affected, but not all.  I think when something bad happens to a large and important industry, for instance a country's resource sector, the follow on effects impact negatively almost everywhere else.


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## Brad Sallows (20 Nov 2019)

The recent carping about equalization highlighted the fact that AB's economy is still generally pretty healthy and AB's federal taxpayers are still weighty contributors.  A few months back there was a round of smug finger-pointing in BC that called out AB for not have a diverse enough economy.  Tourism was once #5 on the list taught to schoolchildren (forestry, mining, fishing, farming, tourism, if memory serves) in BC; now I suppose it is #1 or maybe #2.  BC might be more at risk than AB.


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## quadrapiper (24 Nov 2019)

Brad Sallows said:
			
		

> BC might be more at risk than AB.


Something else that comes to mind is a major loss of industrial-friendly land: Victoria Harbour, for example, has seen a major shift from industrial waterfront to residential/tourist/etc. development. Would it make sense to establish an "industrial land reserve" for chunks of land with good transport links (water, rail, highway, etc.), as much of the best industrial land is also prime high-end residential territory?


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## ModlrMike (24 Nov 2019)

quadrapiper said:
			
		

> Something else that comes to mind is a major loss of industrial-friendly land: Victoria Harbour, for example, has seen a major shift from industrial waterfront to residential/tourist/etc. development. Would it make sense to establish an "industrial land reserve" for chunks of land with good transport links (water, rail, highway, etc.), as much of the best industrial land is also prime high-end residential territory?



I imagine it's more a question of tax revenue. The rates for multi-family dwellings is probably higher than for low-rise industrial buildings.


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## daftandbarmy (24 Nov 2019)

ModlrMike said:
			
		

> I imagine it's more a question of tax revenue. The rates for multi-family dwellings is probably higher than for low-rise industrial buildings.



Not really. Victoria harbour's industrial decline mirrors others, and the tax base declines apace....


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## Colin Parkinson (25 Nov 2019)

Many of the municipal council members get their campaign funds from developers, who see industrial lands as resource for making themselves rich. I got a taste of the pressure that local governments get from developers when you have to curtail their ideas, they needed a federal permit to construct and assumed they could bulldoze their way through, very unhappy when they could not intimidate us. (benefits of having a Minister from another Province than BC)


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## Brad Sallows (25 Nov 2019)

>Would it make sense to establish an "industrial land reserve" for chunks of land with good transport links (water, rail, highway, etc.), as much of the best industrial land is also prime high-end residential territory?

In most cases, probably not.  Let market forces "decide".  The problem isn't setting land aside in perpetuity; the problem is allowing industry to relocate when gentrification pushes it out.  Given permission to build, commercial and industrial enterprises will move "further out" to cheaper land and build the rail lines and roads they need.  A displacement gives opponents of the enterprise a chance to kill it for good: they litigate to prevent it from landing anywhere else.


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## Blackadder1916 (25 Nov 2019)

quadrapiper said:
			
		

> Something else that comes to mind is a major loss of industrial-friendly land: Victoria Harbour, for example, has seen a major shift from industrial waterfront to residential/tourist/etc. development. Would it make sense to establish an "industrial land reserve" for chunks of land with good transport links (water, rail, highway, etc.), as much of the best industrial land is also prime high-end residential territory?



It's not as if this kind of thing happens without some forethought, not always good forethought but forethought nonetheless.

https://www.victoria.ca/assets/Departments/Planning~Development/Development~Services/Documents/neighbourhoods-victoria-harbour-plan.pdf
VICTORIA HARBOUR PLAN

CITY OF VICTORIA
Adopted by Victoria City Council November 1, 2001
Revised August 30, 2012


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## Kirkhill (25 Nov 2019)

Problem not unique.

It is endemic around the US and also observed in Vancouver, Toronto and Halifax.  Not to mention any and all fishing villages.

People love the "colour" of a quaint fishing harbour.  But then they discover that fishermen come and go at all hours, make noises, shine bright lights, bump into things, make smells and leave stuff in the water.  Same thing for farmers.  And pulp mills.  And steel mills. etc.

It is not as if we are short of space for industrial areas.  We are short of common sense.


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## Colin Parkinson (25 Nov 2019)

We had some rich people build fancy homes next to the North Arm of the Fraser river, seems they didn't like a bunch of tugs moving 18 sections of logs up the river at 3am at about 2-3kts with their Jimmes screaming away. They called us at the Coast Guard base demanding we "close the river" at night. We just laughed at them.


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## KJK (25 Nov 2019)

Colin P said:
			
		

> We had some rich people build fancy homes next to the North Arm of the Fraser river, seems they didn't like a bunch of tugs moving 18 sections of logs up the river at 3am at about 2-3kts with their Jimmes screaming away. They called us at the Coast Guard base demanding we "close the river" at night. We just laughed at them.



This sounds similar to the people that build fancy houses next to a pig or dairy farm and them want the farmers to move their operation because of the smell or next to a shooting range and complain about the noise.


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## quadrapiper (27 Nov 2019)

Blackadder1916 said:
			
		

> It's not as if this kind of thing happens without some forethought, not always good forethought but forethought nonetheless.
> 
> https://www.victoria.ca/assets/Departments/Planning~Development/Development~Services/Documents/neighbourhoods-victoria-harbour-plan.pdf
> VICTORIA HARBOUR PLAN
> ...


"Forethought" generally applied by the level of government most easily swayed by two-bit residential developers.

Was thinking of something a) provincially imposed, and b) sufficiently hard to get land out of as to render it worthless except for industrial purposes. We need shipyards more than we need waterfront condos. On a related note, would be very happy to see the BC ALR made effectively impossible to remove land from, and expanded to include anything zoned or used for ag purposes. In both cases, residential and commercial/retail should be understood as something that can happen on land unsuited for growing, building, or transporting things. Again in both cases, it seems better that a chunk of land lie fallow than be filled with the sort of low-density, high-priced housing surrounding Point Hope yard in Victoria.


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## QV (9 Dec 2019)

QV said:
			
		

> MM, *considering the US economy is on fire while Canada's is in a death spiral*, I 'd say Bruce Monkhouse has a point.
> 
> The US is reaping the rewards of a Trump presidency whether all of the citizens like it or not, and Canadians are losing jobs by the train load across the country.  Both results are directly related to the policies enacted by each respective government.



The November jobs loss for Canada (worst loss since 2009) and the big jobs gained for the US are an indication of where each economy is.  
I stand by my original post. 

https://globalnews.ca/news/6262739/canada-biggest-job-loss-financial-crisis/
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/06/us-nonfarm-payrolls-november-2019.html


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## mariomike (11 Dec 2019)

QV said:
			
		

> The November jobs loss for Canada (worst loss since 2009) and the big jobs gained for the US are an indication of where each economy is.



Opinions vary,



			
				Underway said:
			
		

> Canada's economy is not in a death spiral.  Not even close.  However there is a recession coming, including the US as the sugar high of Trump tax cuts run their course and the diet of trade wars begin.





> Trillion-dollar deficits as far as the eye can see, and hardly a voice of caution to be heard
> https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/472480-trillion-dollar-deficits-as-far-as-the-eye-can-see-and-not-a-voice-of


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## Kirkhill (5 Jan 2020)

The new government in Britain is promoting infrastructure.  It has a couple of multi-billion pound projects on the books. It appears to be letting one go ahead if it can find private funding.  The other, with public funding, appears as if it will be reallocated across a number of smaller, locally approved projects.

From The Telegraph



> There is always some vested interest or life that will be wrecked by big infrastructure spending, and with byzantine planning laws, it doesn’t take much to delay, stall and eventually kill them off. Whether bold, ambitious and disruptive infrastructure projects are any longer ever really possible in an unruly advanced democracy such as our own is increasingly open to question.



https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/01/05/time-bite-bullet-cancel-hs2-wholly-back-northern-crossrail/

We aren't China.  We, like Britain, and the US, and Australia, are "an unruly, advanced democracy".  Guess we'll just have to get used to it.


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