# Post election talk here....



## McG (28 Jun 2004)

The Atlantic Canada results:

Lib 22
Con: 7
NDP: 3   

and 1 Bloc seat is in from Quebec.

As the results start to come in, what are your thoughts?

Current Results:     http://globeandmail.com/elections/fed2004/


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## Limpy (28 Jun 2004)

I have an ominous feeling we'll all be kissing Liberal a$$ again for another decade.


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## spenco (28 Jun 2004)

Liberals have always done well in the maritimes, this is nothing new. Wait till the results come from quebec and ontario, that is where (as usual) the election will change either way.  But now it isnt looking very good.


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## McG (28 Jun 2004)

Ontario results are showing.

The Liberals have a very strong early showing right now, and the MND looks like he will keep his seat.

Here is another up to the second results site: http://www.cbc.ca/canadavotes/candidatesridings/index.html


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## Scoobie Newbie (28 Jun 2004)

I would have put $$$ on the PC's making it close.  General public are a bunch of lemmings.


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## Limpy (28 Jun 2004)

I'm feeling a little better now at the current numbers. As for "lemmings", no truer words were ever spoken.


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## Goober (29 Jun 2004)

Looks like its a Liberal minority govt. Liberals showed strong results in Atlantic Canada and Ontario.


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## Limpy (29 Jun 2004)

For the forth straight time, prepare to pucker up people. :rage:


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## Scoobie Newbie (29 Jun 2004)

Which means that it will that much harder to get anything passed in gov't, regardless of the party in charge.


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## McG (29 Jun 2004)

As a minority, the liberal government will be very different from the ones we have known.

I don't know that I like the NDP holding the balance of power though.


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## Scoobie Newbie (29 Jun 2004)

How do you mean, "they will be different"?


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## muskrat89 (29 Jun 2004)

I can't believe the Liberals are in again. As usual, I guess Canadians get what they deserve   :skull:          My friends and family all live in NB, and they were all voting Conservative (or CPC or whatever it is now)  The Canadian voters are an odd lot. Just goes to show that the circles I run in (most of you guys) aren't typical of Canadians....

I think the Board's "after-election" opinions will be more interesting than the pre-election ones....


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## McG (29 Jun 2004)

CFL said:
			
		

> How do you mean, "they will be different"?


A minority will not have the freedom to do what it wants to.  The other parties will have the numbers to block anything that the Liberals cannot get outside support for.


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## Scoobie Newbie (29 Jun 2004)

That doesn't necessarily mean a good thing.  The other parties could block legislation out of spite.  And yes I believe they would.


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## Limpy (29 Jun 2004)

As usual, the majority of Canadians have supported they,re  beloved gun registry, sponsership money to nowhere, military helicopters falling from the sky, fancy jets for politicians..... etc. etc. etc. etc.


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## McG (29 Jun 2004)

A coalition government could prevent that.  My concern is that a coalition with the NDP or Bloc would actually shift the liberals more to the left.  I think this is the opposite direction to what most Canadians would prefer.


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## McG (29 Jun 2004)

Limpy said:
			
		

> As usual, the majority of Canadians have supported they,re  beloved gun registry, sponsership money to nowhere, military helicopters falling from the sky, fancy jets for politicians..... etc. etc. etc. etc.


I don't think Canadians supported anything.  I think more people voted against something else.


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## Goober (29 Jun 2004)

"The devil you know is better than the devil you don't know"

I think alot of Canadians thought that way.


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## NavyGrunt (29 Jun 2004)

Looks like no money for the military. The NDP will be using their sway to take the money right from our very needy military. Sigh :threat:


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## Limpy (29 Jun 2004)

Goober said:
			
		

> "The devil you know is better than the devil you don't know"
> 
> I think alot of Canadians thought that way.




Actually, I think your probably right about that.


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## Slim (29 Jun 2004)

LIBERALS AGAIN... :skull:

The slow disintegration of Canada...  

Terrorists don't need to come here. The Government wqill eentually do their work for them.

I am really depressed about this!

Slim


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## McG (29 Jun 2004)

Petawawa went Conservative

Kingston went Liberal

Fredricton went Liberal (and brough Oromocto with it).


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## Pieman (29 Jun 2004)

So, how long before the no confidence vote comes in and we have a re-election?

I am placing my bet/hope on 8 months before things fall apart.  Then we vote in the Conservatives.


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## Scoobie Newbie (29 Jun 2004)

Still a few seats up for graps and if the Libs or NDP get them it is doubtful of a no confidence vote.  But is a close as 1 or 2 seats.


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## rdschultz (29 Jun 2004)

Nobody has mentioned that David Pratt was defeated yet.  I'm curious to see who the new minister of national defence will be.  It'll be a while before we find out, but I wonder.


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## R031button (29 Jun 2004)

It's actually two bad about Pratt, he introduced the revolutionary concept of spending money without nineteen commitees to DND, it was for the MGS, but still, it was a concept that had hope.


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## Infanteer (29 Jun 2004)

Well, I must say that I am a little surprised that some of the turns this election has produced.   Some are clear and some are quite subtle.   Here are my thoughts on the election:

*The Strategic MP; Chuck Cadman:*   This is the one that has got me thinking the most, and I haven't seen much about it so far in the media; maybe they'll wise up to it.   A few squeakers in British Columbia finished up in the Conservatives favour, giving them 99 seats in the Commons.   Chuck Cadman, ousted from the Conservative spot in a Surrey riding by another candidate signing up some "instant Conservatives" from his ethnic community, managed to show that alot of residents in his riding still believe in the importance of the term *representative* in our representative democracy.   Good on them for voting for a candidate that will represent them in Parliament instead of voting for what has become in recent times a party front man.   Cadman has stated that he will poll his constituents to see what party, if any, they are interested in forming; with the way the seats turned out, Cadman can probably have the option of staying neutral and being a factor in the House.   Either way, hopefully he has the stones to keep his word and stay free of a party or go with his constituants wishes, because I guarantee you all three parties would be willing to "buy" him.

Anyways, two big implications from this:

1:   The NDP is not in the strategic position to offer an alliance to form a majority government.   The Liberal 135 and the NDP 19 puts them at 154, one short of the majority government.

2:   If the Conservatives and the Bloq decide to band together on a devolution of power agenda, they would sit at Conservative 99 and Bloq 54: 153, two short of the Majority vote.

3:   Cadman, the swing guy can join his old Conservative Party to bring a Bloq/Conservative alliance up to 154, deadlocking Parliament at a 154:154 tie (assuming the NDP and the Libs get cozy).   What happens with deadlock in Parliament votes anyways?   Alternatively, he could be "bought" with a Cabinet position to bring an NDP/Liberal majority coalition up to the 155 seat critical mass.   This theory may play out, or it may not; the fluidity of a minority government could send this entire theory to the scrap heap.

*The Politics of a Minority Government:*   Or none of this could play out, with a very fluid politicking taking place in Ottawa.   Either way, I think the results of this election have raised more questions then it has answered.   For the most part, I am pleased with the results of the election, for I think the minority is the next best thing for Canada, as it should keep the government generally honest; we won't see the government voting to buy itself new jets for the Air Force to ferry Cabinet around in.   If another big scandal breaks out, I can guarantee you a non-confidence vote will pop up.   The only thing that worries me is, as McG pointed out, the presence of two leftist parties can drag the Liberals a little more to the left then we might want.   Hopefully Martin's fiscal conservatism will bring him to work with the Conservatives  to some degree to keep things in order.

*The Conservatives:*   Well, I think the Conservative Party results were the biggest political "premature ejaculation" I've seen in a while.   Ambiguous polls and media reports start to point to some sort of a Conservative victory, next thing you know MacLeans has "Prime Minister Steven Harper?" on the front cover.   I think the one guy on CBC was right when he said the Conservatives got a little too excited from preliminary data and started to set their expectations too high, setting themselves up for dissapointment.   Nonetheless, they've done a good job patching together a strong opposition party in 6 months, and maybe this minority government will give Steven Harper some time to sort things out and flex his party for a bit before heading into the next election, which will almost certainly be before 2009.   He does need to make an effort into getting into Atlantic Canada in Quebec and fixing the situations in BC and Ontario a bit before he can expect a majority.

*The NDP:*   Well, I'm glad to say that they have been denied the kingmaker powers by only having 19 seats, one short of giving a Lib/NDP coalition 155 seats.   We have a true minority government in play.   Layton was losing in his riding for a while, raising doubts.   His wife didn't make it.   Typical blustering Jack made some speech about being important with his 24 projected seats, I wonder if he is smiling now with his not so strategic 19.

*Bloq Quebecois:*   I must say, this is the other thing that bothered me about the election.   A rise to pre-referendum levels in the national government.   This is basically a throw-away vote, where Quebecois say "we do not want to participate in the Federal government, so we are going to send Parti Quebecois lackeys to sit there".   Unfortunately, they have kingmaker powers.   Does this justify the need for a Triple-E senate?   Yep.

*Belinda:* Won her seat, I'm still waiting for the Maxim photo spread.   Is this Harper's heiress in the waiting, or can it lead to a nasty internal bit like Cretin/Martin.

*Pratt:* Gone, looks like we are getting a new boss (again)

*Anne Mclellan:*   Again, she eeked her way into the Edmonton seat, beating out a fighter pilot who was winning until the final few ballots.   It's too bad; I don't like her for some reason.

*British Columbia:*   Talk about a bushwhacking on the Conservative Party, they clearly suffered a flank attack here.   What used to be pretty much a lock up for western conservative parties for the last few elections turned into a free-for-all similar to Ontario.   Maybe next time all the politicians will realize that there are 35 seats that are almost all up for grabs in lotusland.

*The role of Backbenchers: Who are these people?:*   I think with the way the the seat distribution turned out, this may have a good effect on Canadian politics.   First of all, every vote in Parliament is going to be needed, so no more arrogance of politicians skipping sessions because enough show up to pass the bills.   Every vote counts, so it may give the party caucuses more strength because they know the value of their vote and can't be bullied by the party leader.   This brings me to my second point.   With the numbers sooo tight, we'll see where the real loyalties lie.   What if the Conservatives and the Bloc decide they want to form a government and coax two or three Liberals across the floor with the tantalizing offer a Cabinet position.   Everybody is going to have to keep an eye on the Machiavellian power plays that may begin to take shape in Ottawa.

*Funniest Election Moment:*   It is a toss up between real early poll figures that showed up for a while showing some young BQ guy with a Mike Commadoreish red mop top and goatee beating Paul Martin in his riding or the fact that for a while, early poll results that gave the Marxist Leninist Party its spotlight by being in the lead in a riding.   That party couldn't buy national coverage like that.

*Those trusty polls:*As a said in an earlier post today, the polls were off the mark and results were up in the air until the fat lady sang.   Hey, what do you know, I was right.   Makes one wonder about politicians shirking from supporting our allies in Iraq based from their expert poll advice.   Voice of the nation my ass.

Anyways, this government may not last through the month, and we could be voting again, completely changing the political scenery (again).   All in all, I am happy with our election results, as we have sent a message that we will not stand for the "friendly dictatorship" of another Liberal Majority.


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## casing (29 Jun 2004)

I have to say, when the results were projecting 25 NDP seats and Layton got up on stage to make his "we are the power" speech, I was not a happy camper.   I was not pleased to be seeing a potential majority government with the Libs and NDPers getting friendly.   Far too leftist, especially with Layton getting in there and making a point about it during his little speech (about getting Martin to "see things his way").   

Now though, I'm grinning like a fool because 'ol Jackie boy ended up making himself looking like an ass, what with his 19-seats-does-not-equal-20 results.   I'm generally feeling not too bad about the results.   A minority government is just what the doctor ordered for this country.   I'm disapointed that the Conservatives didn't win more seats, and that people in eastern Canada really seem to be complete asses for the most part (may as well stay in the comfort zone by knowing who your thief is... uh huh), but I'm really not surprised overall.

And Infanteer has some excellent insight into Cadman winning his riding.   I shall follow that with great interest.


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## Goober (29 Jun 2004)

Casing said:
			
		

> ...I'm disapointed that the Conservatives didn't win more seats, and that people in eastern Canada really seem to be complete asses for the most part (may as well stay in the comfort zone by knowing who your thief is... uh huh), but I'm really not surprised overall.
> 
> ...



Wow, don't even know how to reply to that one. An ironic statement at the very least.


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## Lance Wiebe (29 Jun 2004)

I am so bummed.

Bummed that the liberal attack ads worked.

Bummed that Harper, obviously, is not yet trusted.

Bummed that Martin called an election even before the CPC could formulate policy.

Bummed that the Forces will once again get shafted.

But, I am not bummed by your report, *Infanteer*!  Good work!


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## Ex-Dragoon (29 Jun 2004)

Excellent insight Infanteer. You summed it up nicely. I believe Stephen Harper was too antagonistic for his own good and as much as I would have liked the CPC get in I was not expecting them to. SH needs to be more diplomatic and when the Libs fold in a years time I hope Harper learns what not to do the next time around. In retrospect, I wonder if the CPC would have done better with Peter MacKay in charge?


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## clasper (29 Jun 2004)

One question that's been circulating around in my head since I first read the results: with the House possibly splitting 154-154 between Lib/NDP and Con/BQ/Cadman, I am wondering who is going to be named Speaker of the House, and how that will affect the way this Pariliament functions?  (Am I right in remembering that the Speaker only votes in the event of a tie?)


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## Lance Wiebe (29 Jun 2004)

Yes, the speaker only votes in the event of a tie.

An liberal/NDP coalition would total 154 seats, minus one for the speaker, so 153 seats.

A Bloc/conservative coalition would give 154 seats, ergo, no tie.

But, there are a bunch of seat re-counts, so the numbers may change.

Looks to me like the worst possible scenario anyway, a liberal/bloc coalition.  Worst possible for Canada, anyway.......


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## clasper (29 Jun 2004)

I realize there probably won't be many tied votes in the upcoming parliament.  Does the Speaker have to be a Liberal?  Couldn't they nominate a Conservative MP, thus making the NDP king makers?


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## winchable (29 Jun 2004)

Canadian voters and our damn-ed battered wife syndrome.
We always take the jerk back when he promises to change, even if we're standing in the emergency room with a black eye.
In the end I think alot of people who might normally vote conservative, voted liberal because the Liberals did such an excellent job of vilifying Harper.

Well no one could call it a boring election..


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## CDNsig (29 Jun 2004)

:rage: All I can say is I'm glad I'm posted in Germany for four years; hopefully the Canadian public will get a good injection of common sense before I return, and finally throw these clowns out... If not, I sure hope I can get a civvie job with NATO over here, because Canada will be a bankrupt cesspool by the time I come home...


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## Limpy (29 Jun 2004)

I heard some Emails from people in Canada after the results had come in that really pissed me off. These people wanted to see a Conservative minority governnment. So you know what they do? They vote Liberal to balance the boat, thinking the Conservatives would win a majority government then Email the news channel to express they 're displeasment over the election results. Dumb, Dumb,Dumb.


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## RCA (29 Jun 2004)

This the way democracy works. A majority of voters went with the Liberals and they now have the right to form the govt. The election of the speaker adds another dimension to the equation. The speaker is no longer appointed. Which party is willing to let one of its members stand.

I think Stehen Harper lost because some of his lose lipped colleagues open their yaps and reinforced the notion there was a hidden conservative agenda. I think it scared some Ontario voters back to the Liberals, maybe even enough to cost a few seats.The same could have happen to the BQ when Landry shot his mouth off about sovernty.

Honestly, minority govt work the best because consensus building is the name of the game. We don't want an election in  6 months to a year. Once this govt falls, voters will polarize, and either the Conservatives or Liberals will form a majority, with the BQ and NDP falling to the wayside. I all depends what happens in the next yr or two. Don't count on Martin pulling a Joe Clark.

Question is did Paul Martin win the election or Stepen Harper lose it.


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## spenco (29 Jun 2004)

Just to add on to what people were saying about the liberals demonizing Stephen Harper, the most profound attacks on Harper and his party came from within, all the loud mouths from within the party played right into the liberals hands, especially with the comments Randy White made that were aired only a few days before the election, this may have been a big factor in Ontarios desicion to stay liberal.   Who knows, if the Conservatives didnt shoot themselves in the foot many times we may have seen a conservative gov't.   But all those political analysts on tv are saying that this election didnt really matter, its the next election that is really going to be the big one, are the people going to want another liberal majority or will the conservatives shape up and get a gov't of their own.   Go Tories!


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## McG (29 Jun 2004)

[quote author=ALLISON DUNFIELD]
Martin says he has stable minority government
Globe and Mail Update    

Prime Minister Paul Martin said Tuesday he believes he has the confidence to lead a "stable" minority government, as the Liberal Leader looks to rebuild his cabinet while keeping his inner circle intact.
"This is not a majority government. This is what I believe to be a very stable but a minority government," Mr. Martin said in a post-election news conference in Ottawa. He said he would not pursue any formal coalition with the NDP, although there would be issues where the two parties could work together.
...
Mr. Martin said he still does have fundamental disagreements with Mr. Layton over some issues including raising taxes, but said he believes he did receive a mandate from Canadians over issues that the Liberals campaigned on and planned to govern based on the Liberal platform.
Mr. Martin said he believed he would be in a good position to govern because his party ran on a campaign with health care as its No. 1 concern, and the other political parties also set health as one of their concerns or priorities.
...
Mr. Martin also said that Bloc Québécois Leader Gilles Duceppe has confirmed that the Quebec sovereignty issue is back on the table after sweeping Quebec mostly from the Liberals.
[/quote]

Final numbers:

Liberal135Conservative99​NDP19​Bloc54​Independant1​


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## logau (29 Jun 2004)

My view - based on reading Hughie Segal's Book Reflections of a Happy Warrior in the Conservative Crusade is - sooner or later the Libs will want to try for a majority - hence another election is a given - but when? Papers today said not for a while so parties can rebuild their funds. I would expect lots of barbecue action over the summer.

But economy could hit bumps - USA spending in the gulf is may be driving up price of credit and thus interest rates which may prevent Paul Martin from delivering the payola to his stooges on the left. So the less cash the less cooperation and the more chance of a snap vote.

Who ever is not in the government now would seem to have a vested interest in trying to put together the clearest picture of what happened at SponsorGATE and try and link it to thieves in the ruling party. Make them look bad and just keep pointing at the thieves. Show the proof - tell the voter to judge. Voter not stupid but voter did not have the proof to convict this time around.

Internal - knee cappers. If anyone mouths off - its heads will roll time. They must be absolutely brutal.

External - JOB JOB JOBS - they have to have a plan for expansion of the economy in the face of the decline of manufacturing. Sooner or later the Auto industry of which half is USA driven (and we are not USA lovers are we Paul Martin?)
will implode and take   the Ontario economy and the Ontari-ari-OWE good times parade down the tubes with it. Its already happened in the rust belt from Buffalo to Rochester. 

When that happens you will have Medical coverage - a GP doing MIR rooms in every tin pot town. Need a consultation - on the plane to TO - paid by the government and your taxes from your snow plow job, and your kids job and your wife's job at Tim Horton's. And when they patch you up you can come back to Tin Pot township. And the jobs will be down south of the Rio Grande if you get my drift.

And DND you ask? Well what of it? Its going on sleep mode for a year or two to save deployment $ and build up the eqpt inventory. Just my guess of the elevator talk at NDHQ. I could be wrong but I don't see the uniformed branched of PWGSC planning any expansion. 

Did you enjoy your tax free tours boys and girls?

Some tongue and cheek here but on the whole - what else can we do? If the deployment force = the regulars and we can't expand the reserves or call them out then its a limited sum game. So take a break and enjoy your TOUR in Pet.

Me? I ain't been on a "tour" as it`s known these days - except for my 6 months patrolling the Czech border with 4 Bde in 73 - I am the guy who caused  10 million Godless Commie Russians to blink - freaked out the KGB, and made the cracks appear in the Warsaw Pact - which caused the Berlin Wall to fall in 89. 

You dig?   -   :rocket:


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## rdschultz (29 Jun 2004)

Its great to know the winner of the election believes he won on a subject that most Canadians have absolutely no clue about (and Paul Martin knows they don't know, thats how he used it so effectively).


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## Scratch_043 (30 Jun 2004)

Preliminary Results

Party                             Seats           %       Popular vote        %   


Bloc Québécois                54          17.5       1,672,184          12.4  
Canadian Action                0            0.0           8,930               0.1  
Christian Heritage Party    0            0.0           40,283             0.3  
Communist                        0            0.0           4,568               0.0  
Conservative                    99          32.1         3,994,682         29.6  
Green Party                       0             0.0          580,816           4.3  
Independent                      0             0.0           47,596             0.4  
Liberal                             135         43.8     4,951,107           36.7  
Libertarian                        0             0.0         1,964                 0.0  
Marijuana Party                0             0.0         33,590              0.3  
Marxist-Leninist               0             0.0         9,065                0.1  
N.D.P.                             19            6.2      2,116,536            15.7  
No Affiliation                   1             0.3        17,465               0.1  
PC Party                           0             0.0        10,773                0.1  
Total number of valid votes:       13,489,559


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## Infanteer (1 Jul 2004)

For the sake of the argument, I did a little math to see how our government would look like under Proportional Representation Systems:

Under a strict PR system, where 308 seats are divided up proportionally, this is how it would of looked:

Liberals: 113 Seats
Conservatives: 91 Seats
NDP: 49 Seats
Bloq: 38 Seats
Greens: 13 Seats

This totals 304 seats.   It is beyond me on how to divide up the other 4 seats which have their percentage made up by the other 9 groups, none with a significant amount of votes to get a seat.   Obviously, with the current system, the big loser in this election is the NDP, who is missing out on 30 seats in the first-past-the-post system and the Greens, who would be entitled to official party status.   The Conservatives and the Bloq lose a bit, while the Libs lose big time under strict PR.

Now, lets imagine a mixed-proportional system, where the 308 representative ridings are "topped up" with 100 extra seats selected proportionally to offset the discrepancies of FPTP.

Liberals: 172 Seats
Conservatives: 129 Seats
Bloq: 66 Seats
NDP: 35 Seats
Greens: 4 Seats
Independent (Cadman): 1

This naturally changes the number of seats in Commons to 408, with 204 being required for a majority government.   This system, while not benefiting the NDP as much as strict PR, gives them the ability to form a majority coalition with the Liberals.   As well, it offsets the Bloq's influence slightly.   Again, there is 1 seat in this system unaccounted for, as the 9 other voting groups took the proportion for the seat, but none had significant votes to earn it for themselves.

Anyways, a little case study for you electoral policy enthusiasts.   As stated many times on other threads, I am hesitant to support either system as neither does well in effectively breaking down party power and encouraging more democratic debate; it merely adds more party hacks to the system.


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## McG (6 Jul 2004)

The next "big" event that will give us a picture of what to expect is coming.



> PM's cabinet to meet Tuesday ahead of shuffle
> 
> CTV.ca News Staff
> 
> ...


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## Alex (6 Jul 2004)

I'm thinking that if there is another election anytime soon, a Conservative party led by a central Canadian (or god forbid, a French Canadian) would be Paul Martin's worst nightmare.


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## Infanteer (6 Jul 2004)

> (or god forbid, a French Canadian)



Please clarify that remark.


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## Alex (7 Jul 2004)

Infanteer said:
			
		

> > (or god forbid, a French Canadian)
> 
> 
> 
> Please clarify that remark.



Sorry- I was not intending any disrespect. During these elections, I think Martin capitalized on Harper being leader by calling his party the "conservative alliance" party and trying to scare central and eastern Canadians into voting Liberal. Also, the conservatives never really had a chance in Quebec, and if they wanted a majority, they would need Quebec. So what I was trying to say, slightly sarcastically, is that a French Canadian as leader would do wonders for the Conservative party- they can't be thought of as "Reform mark3" anymore, and their problems in Quebec might be solved.. Obviously I did not go into enough detail. Sorry.


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## McG (7 Jul 2004)

Not all French Canadians have lived in Quebec.


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## Marauder (8 Jul 2004)

Just my take here, put away the crosses and nails....

While I like Harper and think he would make a decent PM, I think the CPC dropped the ball when they voted him in as leader of the party. I think Belinda would have been a better choice to have helming the party for this election (which they surely must have anticipated would have happened short fuse with the Liebrals trying to stiff them in prep time). Why you ask? Well, mainly because having her as leader would have defused alot of the crap Martin and co flung at the CPC only to gleefully watch it stick like guntape. She's pro-choice IIRC and Martin's desperation attack ads as the campaign wound down and White's jackassery came to light would have been blunted if Martin tried to suggest that she (remember that the loony left thinks of women as having protected minority status) would cank the sacred Charter. Plus she's from Ontario, which again would have blunted weasel boy's insinuations that the Big Bad West was out to kill Medicare and all the other Lib/Social Credit handouts that mean so much to the Atlantic and the welfare state nursury in Ontario. Now obviously other factors were in play (little prep time to cobble two parties into one new united front, the lack of response to the attack ads in the dying days, the inability of the loony right to keep their stupid goddamn traps clamped for the duration of the election, and Martin succedding in his fearmongering), but in the end, weasel boy succeded in painting Harper as the scary dude from out west who wanted to ban abortion and burn gays on the stake on the Parliment lawn while moving every doctor and nurse out west and letting everything east of Winnipeg die in the streets. Harper showed he's got ice water in his veins when it comes to dealing with the weasel and the ferret (Tell us another one, Jack!), and I admire that to no end. But I still think having Belinda at the helm while Harper and Reynolds did the war gaming in the back rooms would have landed the CPC (and Canada) in a far better position than it is in now.


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## Kirkhill (8 Jul 2004)

I won't take issue with Alec and Marauder on the saleability of Belinda or a French-Canadian conservative candidate "to be named at some time in the future".   I think that they are probably right that either of those candidates could possibly have sold better in the east than Harper.

However, in so doing the Conservatives would have risked losing the support of the largest, most committed chunk of its supporters (the activists if you like - gawd how I hate that word) that are crucial to any party.  They supplied the baseline numbers of MPs that put the party on the road to a significant stake in the house, undisputedly they are now the official opposition (remember when Reform and the Bloc sawed off over one MP and the Bloc were the official "dis-loyal" opposition?).  The activists also supplied most of the personnel necessary to run the campaign, personnel that Harper could trust.  Trust doesn't necessarily mean like or agree with it means "able to predict their actions".  

It probably was predictable that somebody was going to get the party into trouble and if not Randy White and Cheryl Gallant then possibly Myron Stimson or Rob Andrews. That was probably expected in the calculus - just very hard to counter and no effective counter found.

On the other hand Harper probably could not have found it easy on the short term to come to "trust" - read predict - party members that in the weeks and months previously had been slamming him as they supported Joe Clark/David Orchard/Belinda Stronach/Tony Clements.

He now has a period of relative calm in which he can get the feel for the other sides of the party, find out where they are flexible and then try to lead the two sides together while maintaining most of the core support.  Because "sure as shooting" he is never going to please everybody and every decision he makes willl be predicated on the calculation "does this gain me more votes than it loses".

I take heart that there are a number of areas of common ground that not just Conservatives hold but many other Canadians hold.  And I trust that those more radically minded "activists" will have come to see the value of moderation and that moderation and compromise while adherence to principle is the art of politics.


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## Yard Ape (20 Jul 2004)

More election fall-out

Big-name Liberal rookies catapulted into cabinet  

Canadian Press 

Ottawa â â€ The federal cabinet is set for an injection of big-name recognition as a hall of fame goaltender, a former provincial premier and a top business executive will all be sworn in Tuesday.

Government sources say hockey legend Ken Dryden, ex-B.C. premier Ujjal Dosanjh and B.C. forestry executive David Emerson will lead a crop of rookies that includes onetime Conservative leadership candidate Scott Brison.

As for key changes, Pierre Pettigrew was rumoured to be switching from Health to Foreign Affairs while *Bill Graham was expected to leave that department and become defence min*ister.

None of them spoke publicly after receiving the phone call Monday from Prime Minister Paul Martin. They were warned by Martin aides they could be fired for talking to the media.

Two main pillars of the Liberal government â â€ Finance Minister Ralph Goodale and Public Safety Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Anne McLellan â â€ were expected to remain in place.

â Å“The cabinet will combine proven veterans with some of the very talented newcomers that were elected in June,â ? said Martin spokesman Scott Reid.

â Å“There will be old faces and new. Above all it will be focused on merit.â ?

But Mr. Martin will apparently dump some of the most experienced members of cabinet â â€ including Denis Coderre and David Anderson â â€ to make room for the newcomers.

Mr. Dosanjh was expected to become health minister and replace Mr. Anderson in one of the cabinet spots from B.C., while Mr. Coderre was apparently on the way out to make room for a controversial new minister in Montreal.

Twenty years since his last ministerial posting, Jean Lapierre was rumoured to be returning to cabinet as transport minister and Quebec lieutenant.

Mr. Lapierre bolted from the Liberal party when Jean Chrétien became leader in 1990. He helped create the sovereigntist Bloc Quebecois and then left politics for more than a decade to become a household name in Quebec as a talk-show host.

Many Liberals have grumbled privately about his quick ascension to cabinet after fleeing the party 14 years ago.

Some of those same Liberals who have waited years for a chance to sit in cabinet were already complaining privately about the appointment of an ex-Tory to head a major department.

Mr. Brison was slated to take over the much-maligned Public Works Department â â€ home of the sponsorship scandal â â€ with Stephen Owen vacating the post but gaining another portfolio.

Mr. Brison only became a Liberal in December.

Mr. Dosanjh was rumoured to be taking over Health, while Mr. Emerson was set to be handed the prestigious industry file.

At least one big name from the Chrétien era was set to return to the cabinet table.

Stephane Dion, who was the key Liberal foot soldier in the fight against Quebec separatism, will apparently be returning as minister of Indian Affairs.

Liberal sources said cabinet rumours about Mr. Dryden had him taking over the social development file, while Liza Frulla moved over to Canadian Heritage.

With the Liberals needing to negotiate with other parties in pushing legislation through the new minority Parliament, the all-important House leader's job has apparently been handed to outgoing Transport Minister Tony Valeri.

Andy Mitchell was expected to move over from Indian Affairs to Agriculture, while Lucienne Robillard was expected to leave the Industry slot to become Intergovernmental Affairs minister.

Reg Alcock was slated to remain Treasury Board president, sources said.


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