# Turkey - Kurdistan (Superthread)



## Bigmac (23 Jan 2007)

> Turkish officials have recently voiced their concerns over the fate of the oil-rich Iraqi province of Kirkuk. Turkey fears that if Iraqi Kurds annex Kirkuk into their autonomous region, they will eventually want to carve out an independent Kurdish state in northern Iraq and thus stoke separatist desires in Turkey's own sizable Kurdish population.



       This could be another reason for buildup of US forces in Iraq. If Turkey gets involved it will certainly add a new dynamic to the instabilty of the area and more headaches for the US government. For full story read link below.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/IA24Ak02.html


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## GAP (23 Jan 2007)

This is something Turkey is really afraid of and will not hesitate to use force to stop any kind of Kurdish State. 

Iran, Iraq (largely toothless), Turkey and Syria all have a huge stake in this if a Kurdish state starts forming, as each of these countries have a large segment of Kurds.


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## Kirkhill (23 Jan 2007)

Iran also has to keep an eye on its back door if the Kurds ever get their act together.  There is another clump of them in the eastern mountains bordering Turkmenistan and Afghanistan.

Iran wouldn't be best pleased if the Kurds "reclaimed" the northern mountains, the Baluchis the eastern desert and coast and the Arabs the Shatt-al-Arab.  It wouldn't leave much room for the Persians.

The Kurds are in Red on the map below.

And here's the link:
http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/commonwealth/commonwealth_islamic_groups.jpg


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## Bigmac (23 Jan 2007)

> The BBC has obtained evidence that Israelis have been giving military training to Kurds in northern Iraq.



      Maybe Turkey should be nervous? The Israeli involvement in training Kurd militia is widely disputed but makes perfect sense. Israel is concerned about the mounting threat of Iran's nuclear arms development. What better way to keep an eye on things than assist in the Kurds getting their own state. Train the Kurd militia and at the same time covertly operate in Iran. Brilliant plan or conspiracy theory?
      The protestors and supporters of a Kurdish state all have high stakes and it will be interesting how this plays out this year.
      
Remainder of article from Sep 06 BBC report is on link below.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/5364982.stm


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## Kirkhill (23 Jan 2007)

> The BBC has obtained evidence that Israelis have been giving military training to Kurds in northern Iraq.
> 
> A report on the BBC TV programme Newsnight showed Israeli experts in northern Iraq, drilling Kurdish militias in shooting techniques. ....
> 
> ...




O Goody.  What a shitstorm we can "likely" create.  With any luck the Iraqis will never have any peace.  

BBC making news - not creating reporting it.  How many Arab reporters on the Neutral BBC payroll?  God help us all.

It doesn't have to be true to get a reaction - just look at the Danish Cartoon fiasco.


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## Bigmac (23 Jan 2007)

> Iraqi Oil File Opened
> 
> 
> Several indicators have surfaced recently that point to bringing the oil factor in Iraq back from the back burner to the forefront of the public eye. The first has been Ankara’s escalating drive to block the control of the northern Iraqi oil city of Kirkuk by the Iraqi Kurds, lest Kirkuk's lucrative oil would be used to fund a bid for secession from Iraq that could encourage separatist Kurdish guerrillas in Turkey herself.
> ...



       If you think BBC are shite disturbing check out Middle East Online article that came out today.  Everyone seems to agree that the Kurds are paramount in a major powerplay. The rest of the article quoted is on link below but take it with a grain of salt.

http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=19265


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## Colin Parkinson (23 Jan 2007)

Would be a good reason to move a portion of the US military to Kurdish areas when they draw down, close enough to instantly react and will keep Turkey from doing anything foolish. As I said before, it's a shame the Turks and Kurds couldn't get their act together, that would make everyone in the region else nervous.


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## Kirkhill (23 Jan 2007)

I wonder what the map looks like with at US sponsored Turkey-Iraq-Kuwait-Jordan free trade zone.


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## Bigmac (30 Jan 2007)

> Message On Kirkuk From Northern Iraq
> Published: 1/29/2007
> 
> By Ferai Tinc
> ...



      They also mention in the article the possibility of Kirkuk becoming another Jerusalem in the area. Oh great, another holy land for all to fight over! Link below.

http://www.turkishpress.com/news.asp?id=160829


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## Bigmac (31 Jan 2007)

> Iraq bans Turkish oil and meat
> 
> 1/31/2007   UPI
> BAGHDAD -- Iraq and Turkey are in a trade dispute over oil products and meat imports as tension between the neighboring countries continues.
> ...



      It looks as though things are beginning to boil over between Turkey and Iraq over Kurdistan. As I've said before this is one of the reasons I believe more US troops are being sent to Iraq. The rest of article on link below.

http://www.kurdmedia.com/news.asp?id=13978


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## Bigmac (26 May 2007)

Well the situation is now at boiling point. The recent attack, supposedly by PKK, has prompted the strong potential of military action by Turkey against the Kurds in Northern Iraq. The US is caught in the middle as they need both the Kurds and Turks as allies. If the Turks invade Northern Iraq it will spark responses by both Syria and Iran who both have strong support for the Kurds. 



> *Turkey's battle plan could threaten northern Iraq*
> 
> POSTED: 0759 GMT (1559 HKT), May 25, 2007
> 
> ...


more on link: http://edition.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/europe/05/24/turkey.terror/


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## Bigmac (30 May 2007)

Turkey has now let the US and Iraqi governments know that they are not letting the northern Iraq issue go. The US is in a tough position. I don't know if diplomacy is going to work in this situation. The Turkish people are pressuring their government to take action now.



> *Erdogan: Turkey, US and Iraq could carry out an operation against terrorist organization
> Published: 5/30/2007*
> 
> ANKARA - "Turkey, the United States and Iraq could carry out an operation against the separatist terrorist organization in northern Iraq," Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Tuesday.
> ...


http://www.turkishpress.com/news.asp?id=178773&s=&i=&t=Erdogan:_Turkey,_US_and_Iraq_could_carry_out_an_operation_against_terrorist_organization


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## Greymatters (30 May 2007)

The Turks and Kurds have a long and violent history that isnt going to go away by having a few summit talks.


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## nihilpavor (30 May 2007)

Maybe the Joker is in the hand of the European Union. Turkey wants to join real bad and they are taking every steps required of them (from building new occidental style prison, changing the judicial system, implement solid human rights politics, etc. ) and that excludes many more aggressive behaviors. Should Sarkozy and other European leaders negate the membership of Turkey, particularly in a way perceived unfriendly or mean, this country could very well redirect its focus Eastward trying to augment its influence in a region that has enough players has it is. Without the EU restrictions, some bad habits could come back and maybe some extremists could seize the momentum caused by the hard felt rejection. 

Of course, I'm not a Turkey specialist, grain of salt needed.


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## Kirkhill (30 May 2007)

On the other hand nihilpavor it might not be a bad thing if the secular sons of Ataturk were "encouraged" to "reestablish" "fraternal" ties with their old colonies.  That ultimately is what "really" p****s off the Wahabis.  The fact that their ancestors handed the keys to the Caliphate to a bunch of mercenary pagans, christians and mongols because they were too indolent to defend themselves.  The Turks were just the latest bunch of Johnny-come-latelies to claim the Caliphate and move the capital from places like Cairo, Damascus and Baghdad to Istanbul.

Then to top it all off the Turk Kemal, throws over the whole system and kills the Caliphate entirely.  If the Arabs and OBL have a real Bete-Noire it isn't anyone in the west. It has to be Kemal Ataturk.

Despite that I have to believe that, as in all empires, there remain sympathisers that fondly recall the good old days.  Perhaps the secular Turks can still find friends within the geographical territory claimed by the Muftis and Mullahs of Islam.


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## nihilpavor (30 May 2007)

What scares me isn't outside of Turkey, it's what's inside... The minute they'll feel rejected by Occident, the political spectrum in the country is likely to turn for the worst.

http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/article.aspx?id=809


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## Kirkhill (30 May 2007)

If Turkey "fails to hold" then they are going to have at least a 3-way fight in Anatolia amongst secular and islamic Turks as well as the Kurds.  In the east it will become a multi-party squabble that will include the Kurds and all those interesting tribes of the Caucasus that were squabbling amongst themselves when the USSR broke.  At that point all bets are off with tribal warfare being the norm from the Punjab to Istanbul and from Yemen to Chechenya - with continued spill over into the Balkans, the Horn of Africa and parts beyond.


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## Bigmac (1 Jun 2007)

Updates on the situation. It looks like the Turkish military is itching for a fight with PKK in Northern Iraq.



> *Turkish Troops Kill 2 Kurdish Rebels*
> 
> AP) -- Soldiers killed two Kurdish militants in Turkey's rebellious southeast, where troops massed along the border threatened an incursion into Iraq.
> 
> ...


http://www.aina.org/news/2007060193837.htm



> *Does Turkey Have Plans to Invade Iraq?
> Turkish Prime Minister Won't Talk Strategy, but Troops Have Been Deployed to Border*
> 
> By TERRY McCARTHY
> ...


http://www.abcnews.go.com/International/story?id=3232007&page=1



> *Buyukanit: Ready for PKK Strike*
> 
> Published: 5/31/2007
> 
> ...


http://www.turkishpress.com/news.asp?id=179057&s=&i=&t=Buyukanit:_Ready_for_PKK_Strike


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## MarkOttawa (1 Jun 2007)

More very worrying stuff:

General: Turkey's Troops Ready for Iraq
AP, May 31
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/05/31/AR2007053100549.html



> ANKARA, Turkey -- Turkey's top general said Thursday his army _ which has been massing troops on the border with Iraq _ was prepared to attack separatist Kurdish guerrillas in a cross-border offensive.
> 
> Gen. Yasar Buyukanit said the military was ready and awaiting government orders for an incursion, putting pressure on the government to support an offensive that risks straining ties with the United States and Europe and raising tensions with Iraqi Kurds.
> 
> ...



Mark
Ottawa


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## Kirkhill (1 Jun 2007)

> But the U.S. State Department said Wednesday it had seen no evidence of a significant movement of Turkish military forces in the border



So, on which sylLABLe do we wish to put the emPHAsis?

There are significant military forces on the border but they haven't moved?
There are no significant moves of new forces to the border?
No third party has supplied open source evidence of significant movements by the Turks?

As noted elsewhere - maybe it is just a peculiarity of the Turkish constitution - I find it fascinating that the civilian authority apparently doesn't initiate military action.  The initiative lies with the military to decide when and if military action is necessary.  The civilians only get to acquiesce or oppose.


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## GAP (1 Jun 2007)

The US is backing away from the region ASAP.....

Kurdistan Regional Security Passes to Iraqi Control
By Tim Kilbride Special to American Forces Press Service
Article Link

WASHINGTON, June 1, 2007 – Day-to-day security concerns in the three provinces making up Iraq’s Kurdistan region are now the direct responsibility of Iraqi representatives, a Multinational Force Iraq official said yesterday. 
The provinces of Sulaymaniyah, Erbil and Dahuk transferred as a bloc to regional Iraqi control during a May 30 ceremony, said Air Force Maj. Gen. Kurt Cichowski, deputy chief of staff for strategy, plans and assessment, during a call with “bloggers” and online journalists. 

The transfer means the Kurdistan regional government, as an element of the government of Iraq, will oversee the Iraqi army and police, as well as ancillary security forces working in the area, Cichowski said. Such supplementary forces include the officially sanctioned “peshmerga,” now known as the Kurdish Regional Guards, he explained. 

The region has been administered by the Kurdistan regional government since 2003, the general said, and provinces transferred all at once instead of individually at that government’s request. 

The transfers were conditioned on the achievement of four key standards, graded by U.S. and Iraqi officials, Cichowski said. These were: security in the region; the capabilities of the Iraqi security forces in the area, with a focus on the police; local governance capability; and the status of the relationship between coalition forces and the local government. 

Basically, Cichowski said, the key questions on readiness are, “What is happening in the provinces and can a local government take care of it, primarily with the domestic police?” 
More on link


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## Greymatters (1 Jun 2007)

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> As noted elsewhere - maybe it is just a peculiarity of the Turkish constitution - I find it fascinating that the civilian authority apparently doesn't initiate military action.  The initiative lies with the military to decide when and if military action is necessary.  The civilians only get to acquiesce or oppose.



The military and the elected officials tend to act as two independent systems, with netiher allowing itself to be commanded by the either (although they certainly do influence each other).  Yes, its dysfunctional, but hey, thats Turkey...


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## Bigmac (1 Jun 2007)

Complaining to both the UN and NATO......interesting!??



> *Turkey taking PKK complaints to UN, NATO  *
> 
> Ankara's efforts on the diplomatic front to cement a firm stance among the international community -- which already condemns armed attacks by the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) but has not yet taken firm action against it -- have recently gained a new momentum with a Foreign Ministry initiative to carry the issue to the agenda of international bodies such as the UN and NATO.


http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/detaylar.do?load=detay&link=112940&bolum=102


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## Bigmac (2 Jun 2007)

A voice of reason amongst the Turkish population? 



> *At The Brink of a Chaos: Kurds, EU, Army and Poor Intellectuals of this Country *
> 
> Friday, June 1, 2007
> 
> ...


Remainder of opinion article: http://www.turkishdailynews.com.tr/article.php?enewsid=74667

My favorite quote from the article: 





> *There is a saying, sir, if the only tool you have is a hammer, everything appears to you as a nail! *


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## KevinB (2 Jun 2007)

Well the Pesh are always crossing the border though so the Turks pound Dahuk with arty a fair amount...

For those who have not been to Kurdistan - it is for all intensive purposes a seperate country from iraq -- to the point if you fly in to Arbil/Erbil - you get greated with a Kurdish flag, and Welcome to Erbil International Airport, Republic of Kurdistan.

  I spent a week in Kirkuk as well - it is a pretty stable area -- but 15km outside going West it gets bad.

The amount of reconstruction is amazing and as one of my buddies who is positioned in Erbil say "London has way more gun crime that Kurdistan".  

Everyone working the circut in Iraq wants to retire on the job in Erbil/Kirkuk.


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## Kirkhill (2 Jun 2007)

PKK = KWP =  Kurdish Workers Party  - communist roots (apparently abandoned with the collapse of the USSR)
Current Problem Children in Turkey - Strength believed to be about 5000 (3000 in Iraq, 2000 in Turkey)
Long time rivals of both the PPK (KDP) and the PUK - a lot of violence between factions in both Turkey and Iraq prior to the fall of Saddam.

PPK = KDP = Kurdish Democratic Party - led by Massoud Barsani, President of Autonomous Region of Kurdistan in Iraq, one time member of Iraqi Governing Council 
                                                        - allied with PUK

PUK = Patriotic Union of Kurdistan - led by Jalal Talabani, President of Iraq



> "There are 30 million Kurds in Turkey and we don't interfere there. If they (the Turks) interfere in Kirkuk over just thousands of Turkmen then we will take action for the 30 million Kurds in Turkey."
> 
> "I hope we don't reach this point, but if the Turks insist on intervening in Kirkuk matter I am ready to take responsible for our response," Barzani said.
> 
> AP/IHT April 7,2007



Kurdistan and Iraq, Talabani and Barsani all have a lot to lose in a border skirmish with the Turks.  The Turks have a lot at risk as well.  

I believe that Talabani and Barsani believe they have enough "legitimate" leverage based on their position within Iraq.  They would not be willing to jeopardize the stabiliity that Infidel alludes to.

On the other hand the PKK, claiming suicide bombings and with old USSR connections seems a highly suspect organization.  As noted elsewhere there are external players interested in creating instability in the area - both Islamic and old line Russian, amongst others (There are negotiations for a trans-Turkey pipeline to take Iraqi hydrocarbons to the European Market.  That would give Europe an alternative fuel supply and relieve the chokehold that Russia currently has on them - it might also change some of the G8/Kyoto dynamics - in promoting conservation Europe makes a costly virtue of necessity and at the same time tries to hinder its competitors by inflicting the same energy costs on them - digression)

The PKK is an old, and deadly foe of the PPK and the PUK.  I don't think the Peshmerga with PPK and PUK affiliations will have any problem dealing with the PKK members.  The only problem will come if the Peshmergas split on party lines.

Afghanistan became a pariah state when it no longered controlled the people within its own borders and they became problems to the neighbours (everybody in that case).  The leadership of the Autonomous Region of Kurdistan is being given an opportunity to demonstrate that it can control its own people.  If they can do that, if they can prove to the Turks that they are interested in maintaining the status quo on borders, then the Turks will have no need or excuse to intervene.   Failing the Kurds being able to control their people then Turkey, like NATO in Afghanistan, will have little reason not to intervene.  No state can tolerate instability within its territory or on its borders.

The true test of leadership is whether or not you can punish your "followers" as easily as you do your enemies and reward your "enemies" as easily as you do your friends.

If the Kurds can control their fellow Kurds, and also treat the Turkmen of Kirkuk (not to mention the Arabs) the same way they treat Kurds then tensions in the area might be reduced: to the mutual advantage of Turkey, Iraq, Kurds and Europe.  And to the discomfiture of Moscow, Putin and Gazprom.


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## exspy (2 Jun 2007)

Let me see if I have this straight, just so it's clear to me.

The Canadian Army is in Afghanistan under NATO auspices in partnership with other NATO forces in the role of nation building.  This involves getting the local leaders, including the Afghan Kurd leaders in the Western provinces, to agree to take part in a federal state government centred in Kabul.  If the Kurdish leaders agree, then they will be asked to assist NATO in fighting the Pushtu forces in the Southern and Eastern provinces.  So then, Kurdish cooperation with NATO in Afghanistan would seem to be a political objective.

On the other hand (and further west) if the Iraqi Kurds conduct any sort of raid or invasion into Turkey for whatever reason than Canada and the other NATO partners would have to, under the agreement that an attack on one NATO ally is to be considered an attack upon all, have to assist Turkey in fighting the Kurdish invasion.

Have I got this right or have the subtleties of Mid-East / SW Asian politics confused me.  Are we, or rather the west, really going to be caught in a 'some Kurds are good, some are bad' quagmire?

Who would have thought there would have come a time when the simplicity of the Cold War would be missed.


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## Kirkhill (2 Jun 2007)

exspy said:
			
		

> 'some Kurds are good, some are bad'



I think that is a given regardless of "Nation" and of Woodrow Wilson's strange notions.

I think that, like E.R. and Arthur Majoor, and the Liberal Party of Canada that it ultimately does come down to "a question of values".  Even George Bush, with his succinctly stated "with us or agin us", sees it in the same light.

It isn't a matter of who you are and where you live.  It isn't really a matter of belief, except insofar as beliefs influence actions.  It is all a matter of "let the deed shaw".

As far as the Kurds (self-defined) are concerned, they exist in isolated pockets all through the mountains of Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Turkey, Syria and Lebanon, and possibly beyond.  This is characteristic of an ancient occupancy that has seen many tides of invaders over the millenia.  Unfortunately those ancient, and modern, tides have also left their pockets of separate cultures.    Unfortunately/fortunately, because of their geographic isolation in individual valleys even the Kurds, as unitary as they may seem are each ultimately separate cultures.  

The situation through the Kush-Elburz-Zagros-Caucasus-Balkans connectors reminds me of a bunch of rocks at low tide.  Each hollow contains related species but in different concentrations and with different balances.  Depending on how often the tides rise and connect the pools then each pool trades species and changes balances.  Sometimes the tides keep the pools separated for years - if not milllenia.  Sometimes the pools die out and die.  Sometimes they become permanently separated. 

At the top of Johnson Canyon, between Calgary and Banff, there is a phenomenon known as the paint pots.  They are a sequence of shallow pools of water.  Each one is different in colour because of mineral and algal content - and some include discrete sub-species of higher life forms like snails.  Those ponds sprang from a common origin, survive in the same external environment but have different internal environments.  They are all the same but different.

I think that there is some merit to Osama's desire for a re-establishment of the Caliphate because the Caliphate recognised that that range of mountains were essentially one interconnected culture with many individual idiosyncracies (at least the later Ottoman-Turkic Calphacy did).  What Europeans and Arabs interpreted as a "sick" empire because of a lack of central control might in fact have been the only way that that area can be governed.

Of course in the modern era we don't support "Great Men" any more - but perhaps the solution to stability lies in something akin to a European Union - perhaps the Sunni and Marsh tribes and the Kurds of Iraq might be finding a their way to a more generalized model.  A similar "tribal" stability seems to be the key to Afghanistan as well.


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## MarkOttawa (2 Jun 2007)

exspy: You write  of 



> ...the Afghan Kurd leaders in the Western provinces...



I am afraid they are few and far between.  As far as I can determine the largest estimate for Kurds in Afstan is this:
http://www.institutkurde.org/en/language/



> This language is also spoken by 200,000 Kurdophones settled around Kabul, in Afghanistan.



This ethnolinguistic map of the country does not show Kurds:
http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/middle_east_and_asia/afghanistan_ethnoling_97.jpg

I suspect the 200,000 figure is an exaggeration by the Kurds--this specialized site does not even mention Kurdish amongst the many languages of Afstan:
http://www.ethnologue.com/show_country.asp?name=AF

No mention of Kurds or Kurdish in these either:
http://www.britannica.com/eb/article-21424/Afghanistan
http://www.britannica.com/eb/article-226122/Afghanistan
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/af.html

Mark
Ottawa


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## Kirkhill (2 Jun 2007)

http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/middle_east_and_asia/kurdish_86.jpg

This link shows a good distribution of Kurds - From Anatolia to Afghan border and from the Caucasus to Baluchistan.

The Kurds apparently believe they have relatives in Afghanistan.

This group also apparently agrees with them.
http://www.global12project.com/2004/profiles/p_code4/1016.html

In the matter of nationality it matters less what others believe than what the believers believe.


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## MarkOttawa (3 Jun 2007)

Kirkhill: With respect the map shows no Kurds in Afstan.  I earlier looked at the Christian site on Afghan Kurds that you found and honestly cannot assess what credibility to give it.  In any event even the pro-Kurdish site I posted
http://www.institutkurde.org/en/language/

claims only 200,000 Kurds (less than 1% of the population), mainly in the Kabul area.  So it remains the case that exspy was incorrect in giving any importance to "...the Afghan Kurd leaders in the Western provinces..."

Meanwhile back at the main front:

Gates warns Turkey not to invade Iraq
AP, June 3
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070603/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/gates



> SINGAPORE - Defense Secretary Robert Gates on Sunday cautioned Turkey against sending troops into northern Iraq, as it has threatened, to hunt down Kurdish rebels it accuses of carrying out terrorist raids inside Turkey.
> 
> "We hope there would not be a unilateral military action across the border into Iraq," Gates told a news conference after meetings here with Asian government officials. Turkey and Iraq were not represented.
> 
> ...



Mark
Ottawa


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## exspy (3 Jun 2007)

MarkOttawa,

Thanks for the clarification.  For some reason after finishing the article I had the impression that there was a substantial number of Kurds in western Afghanistan.  Which is why I asked for someone to clear it up for me.  Glad it was you.

Back to the Turkish - Kurdish border, would a Kurdish incursion necessarily trigger a NATO response?  My opinion, and it is only my opinion mind you, is that while technically the precept of a common defence could very well be invoked, I cannot see any European nation not already involved in the Mid-East quagmire wanting to be.  Those that already are I do not see wanting to become involved on a second front or, in the case of the UK, a third front.  The US, with their base at Incirlik, would have to do something to assist Turkey but I don't see a whole of help coming their way from anywhere else.

Views?


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## MarkOttawa (3 Jun 2007)

exspy: Somehow I can't see an attack into Iraq being interpreted as an attack on a NATO member.  I also can't see the US assisting Turkey as that would be the end of friendly relations with Iraqi Kurdistan and would end any chance of the Kurds being helpful politically in Iraq.  In fact any serious Turkish attack would put everyone in a terrible spot.  I suspect the Americans are hoping that the most the Turks do is some sort of hit and run incursion.  They could condemn it while letting it run its course, while praying the Kurds grin and bear it.

Mark
Ottawa


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## KevinB (3 Jun 2007)

Mark -- he is talking about a Kurdish incursion into Turkey -- which would be a treaty requirement for NATO nations...


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## MarkOttawa (3 Jun 2007)

Ooops.   :-[  Since there have been lots of cases of small incursions into Turkey I still can't see NATO getting involved, and to my mind the chance of any major Kurdish incursion by the other factions in support of the PKK is just about non-existent.

Mark
Ottawa


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## KevinB (3 Jun 2007)

Depends on your idea of an incursion -- I dont consider 2-3 guys with AK's and Satchel charges an incursion.  

Secondly its non state actors that are conduction these at this point.  However the Kurds need to deal with this -- they VERY ruthlessly deal with any suspicious Arabs in town (read drive out the desert and bang.) but have been unable/unwilling to get their homegrowns to simmer down at the border.


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## Colin Parkinson (4 Jun 2007)

As the Kurds are still (nominally) part of Iraq, any incursion by them in any size into Turkey would not be condoned by the Iraqi government and therefore would not be considered an “attack by another state”

Pure insanity, the Kurds could be the best thing that happens for the Turks, lots of economic trade deals in the waiting and a source of cheap oil. The Kurds need to reign in the PPK elements causing the problems in turkey, and the Turks need to ease up on their Kurdish population. Even a semi-independent Kurdish Province in Iraq is far better than a Iranian controlled state on Turkey’s border. The problem of course is that both the Kurds and the Turks have so much history between them and neither are good at forgetting it.


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## MarkOttawa (4 Jun 2007)

Tensions Rise as Turkey Shells Iraq
_Spiegel Online_, June 4
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,486535,00.html



> Turkish patience is running out over the cross-border raids by Kurdish militants based in northern Iraq. US Defense Secretary Robert Gates has urged caution, but Ankara is openly debating an incursion to root out the rebels. And it plans to take its case for action to the UN this week.
> 
> The signs have become increasingly ominous. For weeks, Turkey has been building up its military presence on its south-eastern border with Iraq in response to cross-border raids by Kurdish rebels. Potentially more concerning, Ankara has been openly considering an incursion into Kurdish-dominated northern Iraq in an attempt to root out members of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) based there.
> 
> ...



Mark
Ottawa


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## Greymatters (4 Jun 2007)

I think Turkey is very fond of following 'hot pursuit' guidelines...


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## Bigmac (5 Jun 2007)

This is going to fuel the Turkish fire. I think it is now only a matter of when, not if, Turkish forces enter Northern Iraq.



> *Kurdish guerrillas kill 7 in attack on Turkish military outpost*
> 
> SELCAN HACAOGLU
> 
> ...


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## MarkOttawa (5 Jun 2007)

Turkey seeks UN OK for cross-border action
Move follows attack by Kurdish rebels in Iraq
Steven Edwards, _The Ottawa Citizen_, June 5
http://www.canada.com/ottawacitizen/news/story.html?id=d84cd731-3d23-469f-98fe-1c34a524aa05



> UNITED NATIONS - The prospect that Turkish troops will invade northern Iraq to attack Kurdish rebels rose yesterday as Turkey reportedly asked to meet UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon to reaffirm its right to self-defence.
> 
> The move comes as the latest Kurdish rebel attack inside Turkey killed at least seven Turkish soldiers and injured seven more at a military outpost near the Iraqi border.
> 
> ...



Mark
Ottawa


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## Kirkhill (5 Jun 2007)

I said in another thread that perhaps the Americans might prefer to see Kurds killing Kurds than Turks killing Kurds.

Perhaps though, the Kurds might prefer that the Turks do the killing.   This might reduce the risk of the Peshmergas and Kurdish society splitting.

Maybe it is time for a touch of Nelson’s blind eye.  Much protestation from the Kurds, the Iraqis and the Americans about the Turkish “intervention”, and much wailing and gnashing of teeth about how they are powerless to intervene given their current circumstances, all the while encouraging/allowing the Turks to solve a mutual problem.  As long the Turks only intervene/raid and don’t invade then they might be doing a service to all parties except the PKK and their sponsors.

Such a scenario could also strengthen links amongst Turks, Kurds and Iraqis.  There is nothing better than a shared secret to boost mutual confidence.



> “...Turkish troops massed at border of Iraq’s Kurdish area
> Charles J. Hanley, Associated Press
> Published: Saturday, June 02, 2007
> “….In an interview taped for broadcast Sunday on ABC-TV’s “This Week,” Iraq’s Kurdish president, Jalal Talabani, said Iraqi leaders had convinced the Iraq-based militants to cease their attacks, “and they did it.”
> Al-Maliki, the Shiite prime minister, ending a visit to the Kurdish north on Saturday, also sought to ease the growing tensions….”



Coupled with a past history of cooperation between the PUK and the Turks against the PKK 
http://www.turkses.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=2521&Itemid=38      
http://www.turkishdailynews.com.tr/archives.php?id=37612 
http://www.casi.org.uk/discuss/2000/msg01029.html

And the Turks already have a recognised presence of 1000 personnel in Suleimaniyan in Iraq and the Kurds and Iraqis have not been squawking overly loudly about minor incursions that have already occured.

And as much as it is possible to keep track of who is doing what to whom in that part of the world the PKK seem to have strong ties to Syria and occasional ties of convenience to Iran. http://www.jamestown.org/terrorism/news/article.php?articleid=2370250

I am still of the opinion that the only people that this confrontation serves are third parties – specifically Syria, Iran and Gazprom.  In the case of Gazprom instability precludes a competitor to their chokehold on European energy supplies. They have a motive for supporting instability in the area. And they have means in the form of money and potential allies.   Gazprom has already demonstrated its chokehold (Jan 2006 Ukraine, Jan 2007 Belarus, May 2007 Estonia)                                   
http://www.cacianalyst.org/newsite/?q=node/4288   
http://www.guardian.co.uk/russia/article/0,2763,1676959,00.html  
http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=5622007 
http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSL0271267920070502

Both Syria and Iran also profit from instability in that it helps their governments survive a while longer.  The raid tactics adopted by the PKK are reminiscent of the tactics employed by Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, not to mention the “insurgents” in Iraq shelling the “Green Zone” so that the reporters in the hotels can get their “film at 11”.  
(By the way – Iran is apparently upping the ante by shipping 240 mm missiles with a 30 km range into Iraq.  Is that for increased effect or because they can’t get as close to their targets as they used to because of tightening local security?  On the other hand aren’t they bigger targets, with more requirements for a logistical tail and trained personnel? Anyway…..).  



> “Iranian Flow Of Weapons Increasing, Officials Say
> Arms Shipments Tracked To Iraqi, Afghan Groups
> 
> By Robin Wright
> ...


http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/06/02/AR2007060201020.html

It is also of a piece with Hezbollah’s distraction last summer.  And could be of a piece with the current actions in Lebanon by Fatah al-Islam in Nahr el-Bared (nr Tripoli) and Jund al-Sham at Ain al-Hilweh (nr Sidon).   

Apparently their fellow Palestinians aren’t all appreciative of the efforts on their behalf. 


> "It's time the army comes into the camps and cleans these people out," said Abu Rani, 36, a driver. He was among hundreds of Palestinian men, women and children streaming into a mosque on Ein al-Hilweh's edge for shelter as night fell. "It would be a relief to everyone, the Palestinians and the Lebanese."


http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/06/03/AR2007060301289.html

It is in line with threats by Assad of Syria to spread instability if the UN commission went ahead with the Hariri investigation.

I wonder though if it couldn't work against Syria.  What if Turkey determined that the PKK had run away from Iraq and were now operating out of Syria?  Would the Turkish Commandos pursue the same policy of Hot Pursuit?  

And I believe that ultimately it has to do with the success that the US and the Iraqis are having with the Salvation Councils of Anbar, Salahudin and Diyala in targeting the Al Qaeda movement – often by letting locals play by house rules.  (If the US and the Brits conduct “keenie meenie operations” then there would be an awful lot more diplomatic fuss than if the locals indulge in a little headsmanship.)  
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18881803/site/newsweek/page/0/

By the way – The US must be doing something right – Agence France Presse no longer describes the Sunni home defence forces as “militias” or “private armies”.  They are now, in French eyes, legitimate.  They are now “tribal levies” – a well known entity to both French and British readers.  They were the “official” locals that assisted in the maintenance of order in Colonial days – Spahis and Trucial Oman Scouts etc.  http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20070602/wl_mideast_afp/iraq_070602184109



> “BAGHDAD (AFP) - Unidentified gunmen shot dead a local Al-Qaeda leader in the western Iraqi city of Fallujah on Saturday, police said, as fighting between rival Sunni factions undermined the insurgency.
> 
> The apparent assassination of the militant kingpin came as the US military announced that marines and Iraqi security forces had killed seven Al-Qaeda fighters during an assault on a truck bomb factory.
> 
> ...



Perhaps we will know that Iraq is secure when we read about it in and Agence France Presse report.

By the way Mark, further to the issue of Kurds in Afghanistan, I stand by my statement that the Kurds exist throughout the mountains from the Kush to Anatolia and the Caucasus to the Zagros although they are not in influential numbers in Afghanistan.  I also stand by the statement "there are good Kurds and bad Kurds".  As to the quality of the Evangelical site's information - the numbers are in line with your numbers if somewhat more modest and I tend to trust market research more than political research.  Remember these folks are trying to figure out how to "sell" bibles.   ;D  Cheers.


----------



## MarkOttawa (5 Jun 2007)

Kirkhill: Nice--I sure hope you're right about the blind eye.  All a question of scale, I would think.

Mark
Ottawa


----------



## Kirkhill (5 Jun 2007)

MarkOttawa said:
			
		

> Kirkhill: Nice--I sure hope you're right about the blind eye.  All a question of scale, I would think.
> 
> Mark
> Ottawa



Mark - me too.  I just get fed up hearing people string facts together solely to point all the things that could go wrong.  I like to think that somewhere out there there might be people on our side who HAVE a clue.


----------



## Bigmac (6 Jun 2007)

This is not good!



> *June 6, 2007, 11:09AM*
> 
> *Turkish officials: troops enter Iraq*
> 
> ...



http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/world/4866763.html


----------



## Kirkhill (6 Jun 2007)

Nothing to see here boys, move along.

The Americans didn't see it.
The Iraqis didn't see it.
The Turkish government didn't see it.

Nothing happened.

Except for 600 Turkish commandos taking one of their periodic trips into Iraq while a blocking force stays alert on the Turkish side of the border - wherever that may be.

Given the past history of the PUK and the PKK it would not surprise at all if the PUK were calling "fall of shot" for the Turks.

Interesting that even the PKK is split internally.

I think, that properly controlled, this can be seen as part of the overall effort to get the "non-state actors" and outlaws off the stage as is happening in the rest of Iraq.  This way Turkey gets to "help" without helping.


----------



## Colin Parkinson (6 Jun 2007)

My read seems to show that the military is carrying out this action under their standing orders and therefore means that the "government" did not authorize the incursion, leaving them free to claim that no invasion has taken place.


----------



## Bigmac (8 Jun 2007)

Well, I guess once again it is time for everyone to turn their backs and don't take notice of several hundred Turkish commandos entering Iraq for "routine" training.  



> *Bomb kills 3 Turkish soldiers in newly declared 'security zone' near Iraq *
> 
> CHRISTOPHER TORCHIA
> 
> ...



http://www.recorder.ca/cp/World/070607/w0607105A.html


----------



## Bigmac (8 Jun 2007)

> *PM: Barzani is a tribe leader, supports PKK *
> 
> Friday, June 8, 2007
> 
> ...



http://www.turkishdailynews.com.tr/article.php?enewsid=75281




> *Military buffering the Iraqi border *
> 
> Friday, June 8, 2007
> 
> ...



http://www.turkishdailynews.com.tr/article.php?enewsid=75332


----------



## Bigmac (8 Jun 2007)

The Iranians are now apparently involved?  ???



> *Iraqi Kurds report Turkish, Iranian shelling*
> 
> ISTANBUL, Turkey (AP) — Turkish and Iranian forces shelled Kurdish rebel positions across the border in northern Iraq, Iraqi Kurd officials reported Friday, amid fears that the conflict could open a new front in Iraq.
> 
> ...



http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/iraq/2007-06-08-turkey-iran-kurds_N.htm


----------



## Mike Baker (8 Jun 2007)

Now this I didn't see coming. Iran working with the Turks, it boggles the mind. But, I am sure someone will some along to clear things up for me  ;D


----------



## MarkOttawa (8 Jun 2007)

WAITING TO STRIKE
Turkish Military Leaders Pushing For Invasion of Northern Iraq
_Spiegel Online_, June 8
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,487452,00.html



> The threat of an invasion didn't materialize, and yet the Turkish army's activities in northern Iraq Wednesday revealed that it is only waiting for the right opportunity to launch strikes against the Kurdish separatist organization PKK in northern Iraq. Emotions are running dangerously high.
> 
> For several minutes every television channel in Turkey carried the same images: weeping mothers desperately throwing themselves onto flag-draped coffins, huge crowds waving flags and chanting slogans against the Kurdish separatist organization, the PKK, and officers offering their condolences to the grieving mothers.
> 
> ...



Mark
Ottawa


----------



## Colin Parkinson (8 Jun 2007)

Good points Mark

Mike
Remember that Iran has a significant population of Kurds in the North and has the same concerns about a possible Kurdistan.


----------



## Kirkhill (8 Jun 2007)

Mind likewise boggled - I have difficulty seeing the secular Turkish military doing anything with Iran.  If anybody were going to work with Iran I might have expected Erdogan.

On the other hand I can see Iran, and others, just trying to complicate things in general by lobbing a few shells into the pot.

The PKK that the Turks are so exercised about HAS played with Iran and Syria in the past. But there again the PUK has also played with Iran and Barzani's KDP that currently supports Talabani's PUK in Iraq has fought with the PKK against the PUK in the past.

My money is still on Erdogan, the Turkish Army, Talabani and Maliki coming to an accomodation that includes Barzani but excludes the PKK and the Iranians.

Although I stand ready to lose that bet.


----------



## Mike Baker (8 Jun 2007)

Colin P said:
			
		

> Good points Mark
> 
> Mike
> Remember that Iran has a significant population of Kurds in the North and has the same concerns about a possible Kurdistan.


Okay got 'ya. Still causes a lot of questions though.


----------



## Kirkhill (8 Jun 2007)

http://www.turkishweekly.net/news.php?id=45739

This is from Turkish Weekly - if you follow the link you can spend many interesting hours looking at all of this from the "official" Turkish perspective.

Keep in mind that Turkey wants stability.  The Government and Army are sparring with each other.  The prospect of Turkey being a pipeline from both the Caspian Basin and Iraq to Europe in competition with Russia has got them salivating.  Turkey wants to gain membership in the EU.  France wants to keep them out but others want to let them in.

And in the middle of all of this there are reports of Syria massing troops on the Golan.

Interesting to me that most of the April activity by the PKK and the Turkish responses (not reported) were on the Syrian end of the Iraqi border.  Yesterday's reports of shelling are on the Iranian end.
Last year the Iranians and the Turkish Government had an agreement to mutually fight the Kurds but the Turkish Army is not the Turkish Government.  

All very messy yet.

Regardless there is this, from the Turkish Weekly....



> Despite PKK attacks, Turkey has many reasons not to send troops into northern Iraq  Print
> 
> Thursday , 07 June 2007
> 
> ...


----------



## Kirkhill (9 Jun 2007)

Edited to take a leaf out of Edward's Book.

This article about Turkey as an energy hub  is extremely interesting.
It highlights the economic backdrop surrounding recent events in Russia, Azerbaijan, Turkey and Northern Iraq.  
It incorporates the EU's energy needs and the US's position as well as the corporate interests of the Energy Companies including Gazprom.

In short - Europe has four primary suppliers: Norway, Algeria, Russia and the Middle East.  As of now the only secure supplier is Norway and it's running out.

The Middle East has to come through Iraq and Turkey to get to Europe overland.  A secure delivery from there would be in direct competition with Russia and Gazprom.  Russia's biggest ace in the hole just now is gas to Europe.  With a Turkish hub it loses that ace.

Russia offers to supply Europe's energy needs but seems to be attracted by its ability to hold Europe hostage by being its sole supplier.  That power is threatened by having alternativel suppliers.
Europe needs energy for growth.  And "I think" as their populations prove it is necessary to grow or die.  "I also think" their Kyoto experiments have likely proved to themselves that  they can't get where they need to be with conservation and alternative supplies are not cost competitive.  Europe needs and wants Russia's energy but it can't be held hostage to Russia's political whims.

Further, "it appears to me" that Russia fears that a competitive supply might ultimately see them locked out of the market (which suggests to me that at a gut level Russian's still don't understand market economics).

One way to solve the problem is to replicate the North American energy market and create a grid with multiple suppliers along multiple routes and invite all players to be partners in it.  Thus Gazprom and Moscow benefit from Middle East shipments through Turkey although they can't turn off the taps to Europe.  With a Turkish hub and a secure Iraqi pipeline from Iraq (and parts beyond like Kuwait and Saudi), as well as the Caspian route from the Stans then Russia would also benefit from these revenue streams.

Against this back drop Russia is proposing revisiting a Trans-Caucasus connector originally proposed by the US, which has to go through Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia (as well as Nagorno-Karabakh).  And Azerbaijan is where Putin is suggesting that Russia, NATO, the EU and the US can co-operate on missile defence.

It will be interesting to see if all the "instability" in that part of the world dies down once these infrastructure deals are in place.

Perhaps those saying that it was all about Oil were right all along - but it was about bargaining rights on a massive infrastructure project - a Eurasian energy grid.  (Tin foil hat is on the shelf but being eyed closely   )


http://www.turkishweekly.net/news.php?id=45736



> Building an energy hub (By Maria Beat)  Print
> 
> Thursday , 07 June 2007
> 
> ...


----------



## tomahawk6 (10 Jun 2007)

It seems that the Kurds may have a fallback position should the worst happen in Iraq.They have quietly taken steps to protect Kurdistan.Of the 3 Iraqi Army divisions in the north 2 are locally recruited and a seperate special unit composed of pesh merga. Plus there is a regional Kurdish Guard. There are rumors that the Kurds are turning back Arabs that try to travel into the north. The Turkish Army has formal contacts in Kurdistan.


----------



## KevinB (10 Jun 2007)

T6 -- aint no rumour...
  The desert is housing a "few" dead Arabs that did not follow the advice to turn around.  They are for all intensive purposes a seperate country -- 
There was an interesting show on Al Jazeera's "Inside Iraq" last nigth (last nigth here) about the Turkish issue.
  
I hope for all our sakes that the Turkish Army does not enter Kurdistan, and if they do - that they conduct a very surgical mission.   However the Turkish military was stating that over 4 thousand militants of the outlawed PKK where in Kurdistan -- hardly sounds like a limited operation...
  While Canada may have been able to ignore a few CF soldiers killed by Turks during the '74 Cypriot invasion -- I think the first US soldiers killed by Turkish Army will have some disasterous effects, and if the Turks intend to drive that far into Kurdistan to kill 4k "insurgents" they are going to run into the US mil -- likely SODA's, and AOB doing FID with the Kurdistan "IA" Divisions


----------



## Bigmac (11 Jun 2007)

I believe Turkey has had it with the PKK and the inability of the Iraqi governments' inability to control them. They are also frustrated with the US who labeled the PKK as a terrorist group but are not doing anything in fear of losing the support of Kurdish people. Only a matter of time now before full scale military action.



> *Turkey cries for her losses in Sirnak  *
> 
> Monday , 11 June 2007
> 
> ...



http://www.turkishweekly.net/news.php?id=45856


----------



## Cdn Blackshirt (11 Jun 2007)

I consider myself firmly in the Kurd's camp re: long-term independence, but their unwillingness to purge the PKK from its ranks is no different than Pakistan's sheltering of the Taliban.  They need to take internal action or the Turks have every right to go in and clean house.

RE:  An Iranian-Syrian-Turkish union (likely supported by Russia and China) - It makes one shudder....


Matthew.   ???


----------



## Bigmac (11 Jun 2007)

More news...



> Associated Press
> 
> *Mourners Protest Government in Turkey*
> 
> ...



http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2007/06/11/ap3808051.html


----------



## midget-boyd91 (11 Jun 2007)

http://www.nato.int/docu/pr/2007/p07-065e.html



> Statement by the Secretary General
> on terrorism in Turkey
> 
> I note with concern the series of terrorist attacks that have taken place in Turkey in the last few weeks and again last night in the east of the country. On behalf of all Allies I express my sincere condolences to the Turkish people, in particular to the families of those who have lost their lives.  We strongly condemn terrorism regardless of its motivations and manifestations.  The fight against terrorism remains high on NATO’s agenda.


----------



## Bigmac (12 Jun 2007)

Are the PKK playing games or does the presence of thousands of Turkish troops on their doorstep make them suddenly diplomatic? Things that make you go hmmmm....? ???



> June 12, 2007, 10:02AM
> 
> *Rebel Kurds declare cease-fire in Turkey*
> 
> ...



http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/world/4882371.html


----------



## Bigmac (15 Jun 2007)

Cease-fire now over!



> *Turkish bomb blast hurts six in latest rebel attack*
> 
> A BOMB exploded today in Turkey injuring six people including a soldier.
> 
> ...


----------



## Kirkhill (15 Jun 2007)

I think it is a bit early to declare the "cease fire" over.  

In fact it may be a bit early to declare that a PKK cease fire was necessary in the first place.

The Kurds in Turkey have an election to win and bombs are unlikely to improve the chances of their candidates.

Bombs are marvellously anonymous things.  They can be employed by anyone and credit for their use given, taken or denied by anyone.  Just take a look at the campaign being waged in Lebanon to reduce the anti-Syrian majority in the Government.
  
http://gatewaypundit.blogspot.com/2007/06/another-anti-syrian-politician.html 
( by the way that apparently isn't an unhappy event to all concerned judging from the reaction at the TV Station owned by the Pro-Syrian Speaker Nabi Berri http://gatewaypundit.blogspot.com/2007/06/pro-syrian-lebanese-news-anchor.html )

PS - for a great look at the Chaos in the area Gateway Pundit is a good place to start.  They have an agenda but doesn't everyone these days.

I am still inclined to believe that the efforts to de-stabilize the Turkish-Iraqi border, the bombing of the Samarra Mosque, the upsurge by Hamas and Fatah-al-Islam, AND the bombing or legislators in Lebanon are all of a piece - all related.  

And I think they have to do with the pressure being successfully exerted in Iraq by the US and the Iraqis against Al-Qaeda, Syria and Ahmadinejad and his Republican Guard.  As are the bridge bombings in two regions of Iraq - in Diyalla which is currently the focus of a major operation and the area round Iskandariyah. 

http://www.weeklystandard.com/weblogs/TWSFP/2007/06/iraq_report_the_day_after_sama.asp

If you keep saying violence in Iraq or Turkey or wherever then the sense is that nothing ever changes.   If you focus on the incidents the you see a pattern of diminishing geographical dispersion, concentration of effort in fewer places, diminishing numbers of incidents with diminishing effects.  

Unfortunately it only takes 1 "Spectacular" to grab the headlines and allow the "all is lost" crowd to present their case.


----------



## Bigmac (15 Jun 2007)

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> I think it is a bit early to declare the "cease fire" over.
> 
> In fact it may be a bit early to declare that a PKK cease fire was necessary in the first place.
> 
> ...



       So if it wasn't the PKK bombing lately then who was it? Are you saying that some other factions may be planting bombs in Turkey and trying to pin it on the PKK to screw up the elections and keep tensions high? 
     
       I do hope the Turkish elections go well and I also hope that Turkey sorts itself out and get's back on political track. However there is such a wide diversity of political and traditional ideals in that country. I do not want to be part of the "all is lost" crowd so hopefully democracy will prevail and all will accept the election results.


----------



## Kirkhill (15 Jun 2007)

That is pretty much what I am suggesting.

As I say there are other people than the PKK with an interest in destabilizing things over there. The Syrians and Iranians for starters.

As well, to my eye, the PKK looks to be a prime candidate for factionalism.  Remember there are Communist Kurds born in Syria, Turkey, Iraq, Iran and Lebanon.  It must be pretty hard to decide where everybodies loyalties lie: party, leader, tribal leader, country, tribe or the organization.  It isn't impossible to me that some members of the PKK might find it appropriate to do things in the better interests of Syria or Iran, or others.


----------



## Bigmac (17 Jun 2007)

Apparently the PKK are denying responsibility for the Fri bombing. Who knows if we will find out what the truth of the matter is?



> *PKK denies Turkey blast claim *
> 
> Kurdish rebels yesterday denied responsibility for a bomb blast that wounded seven people in Turkey’s main Kurdish city the previous day, a news agency close to the militants reported.
> 
> ...



http://english.alarabonline.org/display.asp?fname=2007%5C06%5C06-17%5Czalsoz%5C922.htm&dismode=x&ts=17/06/2007%2011:32:23%20%C3%95


----------



## MarkOttawa (17 Jun 2007)

I don't think the contents of the story quite justify the pretty firm judgment in the headline:

Major Turkish Incursion in N. Iraq Seen as Unlikely
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/06/16/AR2007061601345.html



> IRBIL, Iraq -- Iraqi border police believe neighboring Turkey has amassed 20,000 to 30,000 soldiers along its southern border with Iraq. Turkish helicopters have flown into Iraqi airspace to conduct missions against Kurdish rebels in the mountainous region, and Turkish mortar shells regularly crash down on Iraqi soil, according to U.S. and Iraqi officials.
> 
> About two weeks ago, a team of Turkish special forces soldiers was discovered in the city of Sulaymaniyah, about 115 miles into Iraqi territory...
> 
> ...



Mark
Ottawa


----------



## Bigmac (17 Jun 2007)

I believe the Turkish military is itching to sort the PKK out in Northern Iraq. They are being somewhat restrained by their government but for how long?? If Turkey doesn't become politically stable soon the military may not listen anymore.



> *Turkish military pounds transit roads used by PKK terrorists along border*
> 
> Turkish military forces along the North Iraq border, continuing their operation in the mountainous region outside of Sirnak against PKK forces, have been firing from tanks and rockets from the peaks of Cudi Mountain onto roads used by terrorists to slip back and forth across the border.
> 
> Meanwhile, 2 US military helicopters flew routes over the Turkish-Iraqi border yesterday, near the ongoing Turkish military operations.



http://www.hurriyet.com.tr/english/6716841.asp


----------



## Bigmac (14 Jul 2007)

> *Turkey raises troop levels along Iraq border*
> 
> Reuters
> 
> ...



http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20070714.WORLDREPORT14-4/TPStory/TPInternational/Africa/

    I think the military wants to scratch the itch now. Hopefully they will wait for the election results before doing any possible incursions?


----------



## Bigmac (14 Jul 2007)

> *Iran to export gas to Europe via Turkey*
> ISNA - Tehran
> Service: Energy
> 
> ...



http://www.isna.ir/Main/NewsView.aspx?ID=News-959945&Lang=E

      Now this would make sense as to why Turkey wants stability in it's southern borders. Running an Iranian gas pipeline through Turkey to the EU is a great idea and a profitable one for Turkey and Iran. Unfortunately the US will not like it as they have the same pipeline idea except originating from northern Iraq. I believe Turkey would prefer to deal with Iran instead of the predominately Kurdish government of Northern Iraq. The EU is onboard any idea that will divert some of their energy needs away from Russia.
     It says the agreements are likely to be signed within the next 4 to 6 months.


----------



## George Wallace (14 Jul 2007)

Bigmac said:
			
		

> ......... Unfortunately the US will not like it as they have the same pipeline idea except originating from northern Iraq. I believe Turkey would prefer to deal with Iran instead of the predominately Kurdish government of Northern Iraq. The EU is onboard any idea that will divert some of their energy needs away from Russia.
> It says the agreements are likely to be signed within the next 4 to 6 months.



 ???

This puzzles me.  Why would you think this.  It would make things cheaper.  Two pipelines built into Turkey, and one main pipeline to feed them into the EU.  Turkey wins on both counts.  The EU is a friend of the US and they benefit from the new access to oil.  Win-Win in my books.  In the end both Iran and Iraq will benefit and perhaps become more moderate to the West.


----------



## Kirkhill (14 Jul 2007)

Actually as I understand it, 3 pipelines through Turkey (actually more likely one big one with three feeders - the Caspian from Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, from Iran and from Iraq.)   Commercially the more that can be fitted into one pipeline the better - as in the case of our MacKenzie pipeline and sharing with Alaska.  Strategically one pipeline or three doesn't matter, as long as Russian line isn't the only European feed.

A multinode grid with lines through both Turkey AND Russia, and with Russia being a full PARTNER in the project with all the other countries and companies, makes for a much more secure, and profitable supply.

I think Turkey is on the border for three reasons:


The Secularists, which is the Army faction, is telling the electorate: you live in a troubled region and we've kept you reasonably safe until now.  Stick with us and not the Islamic faction.

The Turks DO have a problem with Kurdish terrorists and they are right to put pressure on and safeguard their borders, especially in the face of instability

It supplies the Turkish army and Government with many options if things go pear-shaped across the region this summer.


As to the Kurds and the Americans:  As long as the Turks are keeping the PKK occupied in an isolated part of the country then the PUK and the KDP won't be complaining too loudly.


----------



## MarkOttawa (14 Jul 2007)

So there goes any serious chance of Turkmen gas being sent via Afstan.  Another conspiracy theory that should be put to rest.

But what about this?

Russia clinches gas pipeline deal
Map showing region of Caspian gas pipeline
Russia, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan have agreed to build a new natural gas pipeline north from the Caspian Sea.
BBC, May 12, 2007
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/6649169.stm

Looks like the Turkmens will have two routes to Europe.  Maybe three if the Trans-Caspian pipeline gets built.

More here (good map):

Turkmenistan: Multiple Gas Pipelines Still Possible
http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/may2007/2007-05-24-02.asp

Mark
Ottawa


----------



## Kirkhill (14 Jul 2007)

Right now I would say we are all that the stage of haggling over the price.  The Turkmen have offered the Russians a small tranche of their production for the European market and the Russians are taking 50% off the top.  That will be a significantly higher chunk of the profits.

The Turkmen are probably looking at the pipeline that is under construction across Turkey and figuring that nobody is going to waste that investment.  Until they have that pipeline complete then there is no market.  The Euros aren't going away though and will be there when the pipeline is done.

Meantime the Turkmen don't have any Champions to defend them if the Russians decide to play by Lenin's rules.  Until the Middle East settles down they are vulnerable.

Again.  Who does instability serve?  Who has a background in generating instability?


----------



## Bigmac (16 Jul 2007)

> *Twin car bombings in northern Iraqi city of Kirkuk kill at least 71 people *
> 
> YAHYA BARZANJI
> 
> ...



http://www.recorder.ca/cp/World/070716/w071637A.html

     Well I guess the PKK will now have to watch their backs as well. Radical Arab groups in Iraq also want the Kurds gone. This is horrible news for the US who have been able to keep Northern Iraq calm for some time.  Does this mean the Kurds will be added to the mix? Hopefully the US can do something quick as Iraq is on the verge of a full blown civil war.
    Turkey has the right idea strengthening security at it's southern border.


----------



## Bigmac (17 Jul 2007)

> *US Against Iran Gas Deal * (17/07/2007)
> 
> 
> The United States opposes new Turkish plans to transport Turkmen gas via Iran and Turkey to Europe and for a Turkish state-owned firm to develop Iran’s South Pars field, a State Department official said yesterday.
> ...



    I don't think threatening the EU is good foreign policy for the US. I believe the US is upset about Iran entering the competition to supply energy resources to the EU through Turkey as it will cause price wars with them and Russia. This kind of competition would mean much better energy prices for EU so there is no way that they will protest another source of energy supplies to choose from. 

    The US government will never leave Iraq until they establish their own pipeline from Northern Iraq, unfortunately this cannot be done without boots on the ground.


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## Bigmac (17 Jul 2007)

Link for last article posted:

http://www.energia.gr/indexengr.php?newsid=15019&page=1&lang=en


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## Bigmac (18 Jul 2007)

> *Kurds rule out referendum delay for disputed Kirkuk*
> 
> Wed Jul 18, 2007 2:12PM EDT
> 
> ...



http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersEdge/idUSL1885928120070718


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## MarkOttawa (18 Jul 2007)

Unless outsiders are willing to use overwhelming military force (Brits in "Iraq" in the early twenties)
http://www.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,3604,939608,00.html

or have some truly compelling "diplomatic" leverage, in the end the end locals will do what they will.  Especially if they do not have investment--terrible word but appropriate here--in an internationally recognized state.  Cf. Kosovo.
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/07/18/news/UN-GEN-UN-Kosovo.php

Mark
Ottawa


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## Colin Parkinson (19 Jul 2007)

I suspect the Kurds will have very direct and final ways of dealing with the resident Arab population in areas of their control if the suicide bombing become to much. They already limit Arab travel into the regions of their control.


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## Bigmac (11 Oct 2007)

> *Turkish warplanes attack suspected rebel positions on Iraq border *
> 
> Selcan Hacaoglu, THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
> 
> ...



http://www.recorder.ca/cp/World/071010/w101084A.html


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## old medic (27 Oct 2007)

PKK to 'consider' releasing Turkish soldiers

Updated Sat. Oct. 27 2007 7:57 AM ET
The Associated Press
Copy located at:  
http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20071027/turkey_kurds_071027/20071027?hub=TopStories



> ANKARA, Turkey -- Kurdish rebels said Saturday they are considering a lawmaker's request for the release of eight Turkish soldiers captured just under a week ago -- an incident that increased already heightened tensions in the area bordering Iraq.
> 
> Meanwhile, about 1,000 Turkish nationalists marched on the U.S. Embassy in the capital, Ankara, accusing the United States of supporting the rebels by not cracking down on them in northern Iraq.
> 
> ...


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## Bigmac (18 Dec 2007)

> *Turkish army sends soldiers across border into Iraq: Kurdish official *
> 
> THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
> 
> ...



http://www.recorder.ca/cp/World/071218/w121811A.html

Hmmmm, more than likely Turkish special forces letting PKK rebels know that they can still give them some love even if they run back across the border. I am starting to like the Turks, they are getting tired of the rebels and the lack of action from Iraq and the US in dealing with them. They are smart though and so far limit their incursions into Iraq. Hopefully they can maintain their composure, maybe?


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## Colin Parkinson (18 Dec 2007)

I suspect certain Kurdish groups other than the PPK are shedding few tears for them. I think most of the Kurds realize that "Kurdistan" will need a semi-friendly Turkey to exist. They have a better chance coming to terms with Turkey, than their Arab brethern I suspect.


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## Mike Baker (23 Feb 2008)

LINK


(CNN) -- At least 35 Kurdish rebels have been killed in fighting in northern Iraq on Saturday, Turkey's military said Saturday as its offensive against the rebels came under criticism from Baghdad.

The Associated Press quoted the military saying that the total number of rebels killed in its three day incursion was now 79, while two of its own soldiers died Saturday, bringing Turkey's death toll to seven.

The incursion against the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in Iraq began late Thursday, marking a major escalation in Ankara's fight against the rebels.

Iraqi government spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh said Iraq's president and prime minister had urged Turkish officials to rethink the offensive, AP reported.

"We know the threats that Turkey is facing but military operations will not solve the PKK problem," al-Dabbagh said. 

In a statement Friday, the Turkish military said it would act with "utmost sensitivity in order to avoid negative impact on local elements" -- a reference to keeping civilians out of the conflict.

"The Turkish Armed Forces, which values Iraq's territorial integrity and its stability, will return as soon as planned goals are achieved," the military said.

"The executed operation will prevent the region from being a permanent and safe base for the terrorists and will contribute to Iraq's stability and internal peace." 




More on link


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## Yrys (23 Feb 2008)

Mike Baker said:
			
		

> (CNN) -- At least 35 Kurdish rebels have been killed in fighting in *northern Iraq* on Saturday, *Turkey's military *said Saturday as its offensive against the rebels came under criticism from Baghdad.
> 
> The Associated Press quoted the military saying that the total number of rebels killed in its three day *incursion* ...
> 
> ...




I don't have enough knowledge of the region, but it seems a subdue answer from the Iraqis not to protest with stronger words to an 'invasion'
into their territory  even if it occur after warning fron the Turkey government about it...


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## Mike Baker (24 Feb 2008)

Turkish helicopter down in Iraq 

CUKURCA, Turkey - A Turkish helicopter crashed in Iraq and eight soldiers were killed during a cross-border ground operation against Kurdish rebels, who planted booby traps on the bodies of their slain comrades, Turkey's military said Sunday. 

The guerrillas said they shot down a Turkish military helicopter near the Turkish-Iraqi border.

Turkey's military said technicians were inspecting the wreck to determine why the helicopter crashed near the border. It was not clear if any of the reported troop casualties were on board. Their deaths bring the Turkish toll since the start of the incursion Thursday to 15, the military said on its Web site.

Thirty-three rebels were killed in Sunday's fighting, bringing the rebel death toll since Thursday to 112, according to the armed forces.

The incursion is the first confirmed Turkish military ground operation in Iraq since the U.S.-led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein in 2003.

The rebels of the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, are fighting for autonomy in predominantly Kurdish southeastern Turkey and have carried out attacks on Turkish targets from bases in the semiautonomous Kurdish region of northern Iraq. The conflict started in 1984 and has claimed as many as 40,000 lives.

Turkey has assured that the operation would be limited to attacks on rebels. The United States and European Union consider the PKK a terrorist group.

"It is only an operation geared to cleansing the terrorist camps," Turkey's prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, said Sunday in an address to the youth branch of his ruling party. "Our Iraqi brothers, friends and civilians should know that they will never be targeted by the armed forces."

U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Sunday while visiting Australia that it would take a broader approach to erode PKK support in northern Iraq.

"After a certain point people become inured to military attacks," he said, "and if you don't blend them with these kinds of nonmilitary initiatives, then at a certain point the military efforts become less and less effective."

Massoud Barzani, head of the regional Kurdish administration in northern Iraq, warned Turkey would face large-scale resistance if it targeted civilians in its incursion.

The Iraqi government said Saturday fewer than 1,000 Turkish troops had crossed the frontier. Turkish media reports put the number in the thousands.

The office of Iraqi Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr said Turkish forces should leave Iraq.

"We demand that the Turkish government withdraw its forces immediately from the Iraqi territory and rely on negotiations to solve this conflict," al-Sadr's political committee said in a statement.

Iran, which is fighting an Iraq-based group of Kurdish militants with PKK links, said it would maintain security measures on its border with northern Iraq.

The Turkish military said clashes with the rebels were taking place in four areas of northern Iraq, but did not specify any location.

"Terrorist hideouts have been effectively destroyed by warplanes, helicopter gunships and artillery," the military said.

It said advancing troops were destroying rebel shelters, logistic centers and ammunition. Retreating rebels were trying to gain time by setting up booby traps under the corpses of dead comrades or planting mines on escape routes, the military said. 

The bodies of five of the 33 rebels killed Sunday had booby traps under them, the statement said. 

Late Sunday, several military helicopters took off from a base in the hilltop town of Cukurca, flying with their lights off. Earlier, Turkish F-16 jets flew into northern Iraq. Armored personnel carriers transported troops, and four long-range guns were positioned at the Cukurca base, one of the main support centers for the Turkish operation.


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## Yrys (25 Feb 2008)

Turkey border tensions fuel confusion



> The Turkish military incursion into northern Iraq has apparently turned out to be on a considerably lesser scale than initial reports had suggested.
> Iraqi Kurdish officials and US-led coalition sources said only a few hundred Turkish troops at most took part in the cross-border operation.
> 
> The Iraqi Kurds - always on the look-out for any Turkish move that might be construed as an attempt against their own autonomous region - said the incursion
> ...


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## old medic (2 Dec 2008)

Turkish warplanes bombing Kurdish separatists
Positions of the Kurdistan Workers Party, or PKK, in northern Iraq are reported to be under attack.
Reuters
December 2, 2008



> Reporting from Sulaymaniya, Iraq -- Turkish warplanes bombed Kurdish separatist positions Monday in northern Iraq, the head of Iraq's border guards in Dahuk said.
> 
> Fighters from the Kurdistan Workers Party, or PKK, use remote parts of northern Iraq's largely autonomous Kurdistan region as a base to launch attacks in southeastern Turkey. Turkey often retaliates with airstrikes and artillery fire.
> 
> ...


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