# Arab Peninsula Instability



## George Wallace (9 Jan 2010)

Another region that should be watched.

Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act.

 Military approach in Yemen may backfire: experts
09/01/2010 8:03:08 AM
Article Link

Ian Munroe  
*It's a pattern that governments fighting Islamic extremism don't want to see repeated -- success cracking down on militants in one country boosts terrorism elsewhere.* 


In Afghanistan, for example, the U.S. invasion prompted al Qaeda's leadership to seek shelter in the tribal areas of Pakistan, beyond the reach of the central government in Islamabad. 

Similarly, experts say al Qaeda in the Arab Peninsula, the group that claimed responsibility for the attempted bombing of a Detroit-bound flight on Dec. 25, was formed in Yemen partly because of Saudi Arabia's success at abolishing militant groups next door. 

Saudi authorities have been waging a campaign to rehabilitate, imprison or kill suspected extremists since a wave of terrorist attacks wracked the country in 2003 and 2004. But some militants fled south to Yemen, where AQAP was created last January. 

"There was a balloon effect," said Letta Tayler, a terrorism and counterterrorism researcher with Human Rights Watch. "It's a much more hospitable environment for al Qaeda than Saudi Arabia was following the crackdown." 

The American military had been helping Yemen combat al Qaeda before Umar Farouq Abdulmutallab, a 23-year-old Nigerian who had taken Arabic classes in Yemen, allegedly tried to detonate a bomb on board Flight 253. 

Earlier in December, the U.S. military assisted with two air strikes on Yemeni territory. They were reportedly aimed at suspected al Qaeda leaders and killed several dozen civilians. The second strike took place a day before Abdulmutallab boarded a flight to Detroit. 

The U.S. also provided nearly US$70 million in military aid to Yemen in 2009. Gen. David H. Petraeus, the head of U.S. Central Command, has said the Department of Defense will double that amount this year. 

Meanwhile, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown announced that his government, along with the U.S., will help Yemen fund a new counterterorrism force. 

Later this month, the British capital will also host two simultaneous international conferences, one on Afghanistan and the other on Yemen. 

Tayler said that countries seeking to combat radicalization in Yemen would do well to learn from U.S. General Stanley McChrystal, NATO's top commander in Afghanistan. 

To defeat the Taliban and keep al Qaeda from returning to Kabul, McChrystal has recommended that U.S. troops use "courageous restraint." 

"At the end of the day, the success of this operation will be determined in the minds of the Afghan people," McChrystal said last month. "It's not the number of people you kill. It's the number of people you convince. It's the number of people that don't get killed. It's the number of houses that aren't destroyed." 

As with Afghanistan, experts say there's no easy solution to countering al Qaeda in Yemen. 

Joost Hiltermann, deputy program director with International Crisis Group's Middle East and North Africa arm, warned that military intervention could weaken the central government, allowing al Qaeda more free rein there. 

"In a situation as fragile as in Yemen, to put a major external military force could be fatal," Hiltermann told CTV.ca. "The country may not be able to sustain it." 

*Complex problems* 

Yemen is a semi-mountainous country on the southern tip of the Arabian peninsula with a fast-growing population of some 22 million people. 

One of the least developed countries outside sub-Saharan Africa, the UN Human Development Index estimates that 35 per cent of Yemenis live in poverty. Malnourishment is a common affliction for children and nearly half the population is illiterate. 

Oil, which brings in three-quarters of the national income, is running out. Tourism was touted as a possible alternative revenue generator (Yemen houses four UNESCO heritage sites). But visitor numbers have dropped due to attacks on foreigners, and political instability. 

About 150,000 people have been displaced by a civil war that has been raging intermittently near Saada, in the north of the country, since 2004. The Yemeni government has been accused of indiscriminate bombing in the conflict, which Hiltermann says "is clearly escalating." 

In the south, a secessionist movement flared up last spring, bringing hundreds of thousands of protesters into the streets. 

"The bottom line is, the country's in chaos," Tayler said. "There are no prospects for youth and most citizens are concerned about how to get the next meal." 

As Yemen's troubles mount, President Ali Abdullah Saleh's government is losing more control. His reach, which doesn't extend to many parts of the country, is weakening further. 

Marisa L. Porges, an international affairs fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations who advises on counterterrorism for the U.S. Department of Defense, travelled to Yemen in the fall. 

"There are so many domestic problems that al Qaeda isn't a top priority," Porges said by phone from Washington. 

"In private conversations, many officials say 'we're already there -- the state has failed.'" she added. "This is the pervading sense now." 

*Confronting al Qaeda * 

AQAP launched several attacks last year, including an attempt to assassinate Saudi Arabia's counterterrorism chief, Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, and two attacks against South Korean tourists and dignitaries -- all using suicide bombers.

But the attempted Dec. 25 airliner attack seems to represent the group's first plot against a target outside the region.

While that incident focused the international community's attention on AQAP, experts say it will be hard if not impossible to keep such groups off Yemeni territory without addressing the country's other problems. 

Jane Novak, an American analyst and expert on Yemen, warned that President Saleh may simply use military aid from the U.S. to oppress his opponents, while the country goes down. 

"It's such a complex situation," she said. "It's very difficult in Yemen to find anyone there to work with." 

Convincing Saleh, who has ruled the country for three decades, to implement political reforms could help make the country less hospitable for terrorist groups by boosting loyalty to the government, Novak said. 

"Basically in Yemen they consider (the Saleh regime) a tyranny, and an incompetent one as well," she said. "To reduce the instability, the ungoverned regions, they need to somehow force power-sharing and the respect for civil rights." 

Tayler echoed that view, saying policies that reduce oppression and boost faith in the government are needed to fight al Qaeda there effectively. 

"You need a holistic approach," Tayler said. "Otherwise, the counterterrorism policy will simply backfire -- whether it's Pakistan, whether it's Yemen, whether it's Afghanistan."


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## CougarKing (9 Jan 2010)

related older threads:

Saudi Navy blockades North Yemen coast

Cruise missile strike ordered by Obama, hits terrorist hideouts

Saudi AF bombs Yemen's Houthi rebels across the border

 Al Qaeda suspected in deaths of 3 foreign women in Yemen

Jordanian SF to Saudi Arabia

US, UK embassies closed due to terror threat (Jan.2010)

Blasts rock US embassy in Yemen (September 2008, etc.)

Saudi Arabia has problems too

Perhaps this thread should serve as a sort of thread index (and pinned like other pinned topics for further easy access) instead of merging? Just a suggestion.

Threads that deal with the Israel-Palestine conflict belong elsewhere.


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## The Bread Guy (12 Jan 2010)

Google News ("Yemen", last hour)

NewsBrief Yemen (European Commission news aggregator)

Yahoo News Search "Yemen"

NewsNow:  Yemen

Yemen News Agency (English)

Almotamar.com (English-language online paper)


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## meni0n (12 Jan 2010)

Here`s an article that is less alarmist with a different view on things, from Foreign Policy

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/01/08/this_week_at_war_yemens_al_qaeda_scam

"This Week at War: Yemen's al Qaeda Scam"

The article is a bit lenghty but it talks about how Yemen considers Al Qaeda's presence a benefit.


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## CougarKing (15 Jan 2010)

The campaign against Al Qaeda in Yemen continues:



> Yemeni AF strike kills 6 Al Qaeda operatives
> 
> SAN'A, Yemen – An airstrike by Yemeni warplanes killed six al-Qaida operatives Friday in a desert village bordering Saudi Arabia, including a key figure who plotted to assassinate the U.S. ambassador, security officials said.
> 
> ...


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## The Bread Guy (18 Jan 2010)

This from CBC.ca:


> Yemen's foreign minister was in Ottawa on Monday seeking support from the government of Canada as the Middle Eastern country struggles with al-Qaeda elements within its borders.
> 
> The Yemeni minister, Abubakar al-Qirbi, is making the rounds ahead of a major conference on Yemen in London next week, when Yemen is expected to ask for development aid.
> 
> ...



Soooooo, police, military or both kinds of "help"?


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## CougarKing (8 Feb 2010)

The campaign continues with the Yemeni forces suffering their own casualties.



> AFP link
> Ten soldiers killed in north Yemen clashes
> 
> AFP
> ...


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## CougarKing (23 Mar 2010)

Obviously a different seaborne threat from the usual pirate threats in the area:

Associated Press link






> CAIRO – *The U.S. is warning of possible al-Qaida attacks against ships off the coast of Yemen, where an offshoot of the terrorist network has established a significant base of operations over the past year.*
> 
> Yemen became a focus of deep international concern in December when al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula claimed responsibility for the failed attempt to blow up a Detroit-bound airliner, showing the group based in an impoverished and unstable corner of the Middle East had global reach.
> 
> ...


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## GAP (23 Mar 2010)

Seen....MARS had posted in the pirates thread early this AM.


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## CougarKing (26 Apr 2010)

Associated Press link



> SAN'A, Yemen –* The British ambassador in Yemen narrowly escaped a suicide attack Monday morning, when a young man in a school uniform detonated his explosives belt near his armored car at a poor neighborhood of San'a, officials said.*
> 
> A British Embassy spokeswoman said the ambassador, Timothy Torlot, was unhurt, but the attack underlined the precarious security in Yemen. An impoverished Arab nation in the southern corner of the Arabian Peninsula, Yemen has in recent years become a haven for al-Qaida militants taking advantage of the government's limited authority outside major cities and the control of rural areas by heavily armed tribes.
> (...)


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## CougarKing (17 May 2010)

Reuters link



> SANAA (Reuters) - *Yemeni security forces have launched an operation to free two Chinese oil workers kidnapped by separatist militants, a Defense Ministry website said on Monday.*
> 
> Separately, al Qaeda's Yemen-based regional wing blamed the United States for a March raid that killed some of its militants, saying the attack provided it with "a thousand reasons" to strike back within the United States.
> 
> ...


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