# Here comes trouble



## 54/102 CEF (2 May 2006)

Check out the failed states index from Foreign Affairs Magazine - especially the map 

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=3420

All should at least skim it.

There`s trouble I tell you - trouble in River City!


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## foerestedwarrior (3 May 2006)

Interesting....

Especially this.


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## Kirkhill (3 May 2006)

And in the middle of that big red area that is the size of Canada, we find Darfur. Not many good basing options in neighbouring states.


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## GAP (3 May 2006)

Think of it as job security


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## Wookilar (3 May 2006)

And what, I count ....12 of the "TOP 20" that we've already been to or still are at. Some of the names have changed recently, so it's getting hard to tell.


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## joaquim (3 May 2006)

In my mind, the most worrisome is Pakistan, because it is the only nuclear state. This study says it is getting worse, not better. 

Trouble indeed.

Joaquim, a concerned civilian


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## GAP (3 May 2006)

Wasn't there a W5 documentary on nuclear weapons and the guy who developed them for Pakistan on TV recently? The point I am trying to make is at the time they were successful, the weapon was labeled as "Islamic Bomb". 

Couple that little scenario with the accusations of Pakistan funding and supporting the Taliban has chilling potential.


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## garb811 (3 May 2006)

...and with North Korea at #14 probably being very close to being a nuclear power or already there, depending on who you believe, and throwing Russia in at #43...


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## TangoTwoBravo (3 May 2006)

Huh.  We got totally snubbed.  Didn't even make the top 60.   :crybaby:


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## foerestedwarrior (3 May 2006)

2Bravo said:
			
		

> Huh.  We got totally snubbed.  Didn't even make the top 60.   :crybaby:



even worse....china made it in at 57 :crybaby: :crybaby: ;D


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## GAP (3 May 2006)

There's still hope!!! 

We have Atomic Energy of Canada and Chalk River....a couple of years ago they irradiated some golf balls to see if they flew farther. 

See there...now we not only have nuclear devices, but a delivery system !! ;D


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## foerestedwarrior (4 May 2006)

GAP said:
			
		

> There's still hope!!!
> 
> We have Atomic Energy of Canada and Chalk River....a couple of years ago they irradiated some golf balls to see if they flew farther.
> 
> See there...now we not only have nuclear devices, but a delivery system !! ;D




LOL, so now we will sign out a 9 iron and a box of balls to go to war with....sweet!!!! but do we have to wear the silly pants?


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## rz350 (6 May 2006)

That list doesnt seem right. I dont think China and Russia have a place on failed states index. Maybe they are not free democracys. But they are both regional powers that are hardly in contast chaos with a weak goverment.


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## 54/102 CEF (6 May 2006)

rz350 said:
			
		

> That list doesnt seem right. I dont think China and Russia have a place on failed states index. Maybe they are not free democracys. But they are both regional powers that are hardly in contast chaos with a weak goverment.



Russia has declining population, poor healthcare, not open to immigration, quirky authoritarian rule, among other things, they have big challenges but a reformed banking and transportation sector. All is not lost for Russia - but they have lots of work to do.

Now here's a quiz!

Where should the Army go for deployments next?

Pick a place that`s sunny and has lots of flies - then get a TAN number

Hint - check the low income group of countries - these are the trouble spots for now into the future

http://www.unctad.org/Templates/WebFlyer.asp?intItemID=2169&lang=1

The stuff I am reading for my course says conflict declines when they go above $3000 per capita GDP US$


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## GAP (6 May 2006)

> but do we have to wear the silly pants?



Yep...some has to look silly!!! ;D


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## a_majoor (7 May 2006)

rz350 said:
			
		

> That list doesnt seem right. I dont think China and Russia have a place on failed states index. Maybe they are not free democracys. But they are both regional powers that are hardly in contast chaos with a weak goverment.



Russia is sliding into chaos for many of the reasons cited above, and China is a brittle authoratarian state overlaid on an unstable population base. Their demographics are skewed for decades to come with the one child per family law, and there is a huge disparity between the "rich" southern China (which has coastal cities that allow access to the world market) and the more rural northern China, which is extremely poor. 

We can also add potential unrest in Western China with its large and mostly unassimilated Islamic population, which is more related to the peoples of Central Asia than to the Han Chinese. (We should also not forget conquered peoples like the Tibetans and China's view of democratic Tiawan as a dangerous competitor for legitimacy).

Now lets throw a growing dependency on overseas resources like Iranian and Sudanese oil into the mix, and severe environmental stress caused by poorly planned and executed policies on resource management, agriculture, pollution etc. (say thanks to Karl Marx and central planning, or read Friedrich Hayek to find out why this goes wrong....always).

I suspect the report is taking into account various stresses that the Chinese Communist party is ill equipped to handle, and the consequences of an imposion are not pretty.


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## Daidalous (7 May 2006)

Anyone notice the trend, that most of these states are ex-colonies of former imperial powers. (France, England, German, USA etc)


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## 54/102 CEF (7 May 2006)

a_majoor said:
			
		

> Russia is sliding into chaos for many of the reasons cited above, and China is a brittle authoratarian state overlaid on an unstable population base. Their demographics are skewed for decades to come with the one child per family law, and there is a huge disparity between the "rich" southern China (which has coastal cities that allow access to the world market) and the more rural northern China, which is extremely poor.
> 
> ........
> 
> I suspect the report is taking into account various stresses that the Chinese Communist party is ill equipped to handle, and the consequences of an imposion are not pretty.



More China stuff

They need oil and cars. Their population is in decline due to the 1 baby per family program. In 20 years they`ll have a huge retirement problem.

They basically can`t afford a war http://www.worldthreats.com/Asia/Chinese_model.htm 

More stuff you don`t see in North American media here http://www.worldthreats.com/

An article on China by a guy who the CDS thinks is cool http://www.keepmedia.com/pubs/Esquire/2005/11/01/1037812?refId=19

Check the "Walking Points" link at bottom left or article above - some amazing figures ref SOF FORCES

More from the CDS`s bud http://thomaspmbarnett.com/articles/index.htm


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## Kirkhill (7 May 2006)

> Anyone notice the trend, that most of these states are ex-colonies of former imperial powers. (France, England, German, USA etc)



Useful observation Daidalous.  The territory occupied by these states was unstable in the past and a source of scourges like the Barbary pirates that raided Northern Europe, Britain included, to take slaves.  In other parts of the world the local tribes were interrupting sea-lanes and caravan trails - just as they still are in Southern Iraq.   Arguably the desire to bring order to a chaotic environment so as to make trade profitable was the real reason for the establishment of colonial jurisdictions which ultimately became separate states.

The imperial project failed as much due to hasty departures as due the imposition of borders in the first place.  Prior to the imperials there was no central authority with a firm grip on the territory.

By the way, it was a British Empire, not an English Empire.  ;D

Cheers.


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## paracowboy (7 May 2006)

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> The territory occupied by these states was unstable in the past and a source of scourges like the Barbary pirates that raided Northern Europe, Britain included, to take slaves.  In other parts of the world the local tribes were interrupting sea-lanes and caravan trails - just as they still are in Southern Iraq.


nonsense! The entier world, aside from those parts unfortunately inhabited by Europeans -oddly, Europe being one of them - were all utopias of peace and prosperity, with noble savages living as one with Nature and each other. It was only when the Evil Fat White Guys (TM) began to conquer and enslave in their inherent greed and lust for destruction, that the Serpent was released into the Garden.

Don't you know nuthin'?


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## Kirkhill (7 May 2006)

I humbly beg paracowboy's forgiveness.  

The shame I feel will prevent me posting until the next time. ;D


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## Wookilar (9 May 2006)

pc, did you borrow kg's hat? (The one made of tinfoil) Besides, we all know the EFWG (TM) is owned by a subsiderary of the U.S. State Dept.

The decline of China is going to be intersting to watch. Want a really good show? Watch India. The projections on them in the next twenty years are downright frightening. The amount of oil that they will need is mind boggling.

Unless some "emerging" technologies get out there, a resource war may be the only way for some of these up and comers to get the resources that their populations will be demanding.


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## 54/102 CEF (9 May 2006)

India

Kut relief force 1916

Its their oil!


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## a_majoor (10 May 2006)

China will be interesting to watch. A recent article in "The Australian" points out their financial system is saddled with a _trillion dollars_ in nonperforming loans http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,19067992-36375,00.html. When Japan had a few billion dollars in nonperforming loans, their banking system virtually collapsed and Japan went into a deflationary spiral all through the 1990s, so we could expect something similar in China.

India will be a huge global player, and I think they, and not the Chinese, will be the leading power of the 21rst century. India has a market economy and a democratic system of government, and a reasonably flexible social structure. The middle class population of India is about the same as the entire population of the United States so they have the human resources to take advantage of opportunities and the social organisations to move quickly. The key advantage of India is they are part of the Anglosphere, and have powerful partners and allies across the globe, with the United States being their pre eminent partner. China on the other hand is rather insular and particularistic, and while they may be busy buying friends to gain access to resources, they may find their choices of partners like Iran and Sudan more trouble than they were worth.

Energy and resources will be important factors in the 21rst century world, but lets not get too fixated on what resources are important today. For example Turkey could become a giant in South West Asia due to its supply of fresh water, controlling the economies of its  neighbours. With changes in technologies, the supply of oil in South West Asia could become irrelevant, regulating so much of yesterday's realpolitik to the dustbin of history.


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## a_majoor (11 May 2006)

More on Russia, via Instapundit 11 May 06:



> IS DEMOGRAPHY DESTINY? PUTIN THINKS SO:http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/05/10/AR2006051001316.html
> 
> Russian President Vladimir Putin offered women cash to have more babies on Wednesday as he tackled a decline in population that is leaving swathes of the country deserted and threatening to strangle economic growth. In his annual address to the nation, Putin said each year Russia's population fell by about 700,000 -- or about the same as the population of San Francisco. He proposed new financial incentives to nudge up the birth rate.
> 
> As Philip Longman has noted, there's a global baby bust http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20040501faessay83307/phillip-longman/the-global-baby-bust.html, but it's worse in some places -- *chiefly places of a statist bent* -- than others. Also addressed in the story are efforts to address Russia's demographic problems by getting people to live longer, healthier lives, something where there's plenty of room for improvement in contemporary Russia. I've got more on that subject in a somewhat diffferent vein, here.http://www.tcsdaily.com/article.aspx?id=063004D


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## jerrythunder (12 May 2006)

i wonder what other country's threat maps look like, take for instance Iran


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## paracowboy (13 May 2006)

jerrythunder said:
			
		

> i wonder what other country's threat maps look like, take for instance Iran


I imagine it looks like a blue coloured shape roughly the same dimensions as the nation of Iran, surrounded by nothing but red. They mistrust their neighbours more than anyone (which is why they're working so hard to keep Iraq and A-stan destabilized), they don't trust non-Muslim states, they don't trust Muslim states they can't influence directly, and they don't really trust their own people.

Must suck to be them.


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## George Wallace (13 May 2006)

paracowboy said:
			
		

> I imagine it looks like a blue coloured shape roughly the same dimensions as the nation of Iran, surrounded by nothing but red. They mistrust their neighbours more than anyone (which is why they're working so hard to keep Iraq and A-stan destabilized), they don't trust non-Muslim states, they don't trust Muslim states they can't influence directly, and they don't really trust their own people.


I imagine it looks like a red coloured shape roughly the same dimensions as the nation of Iran, surrounded by nothing but blue.  ;D

Depends on where their last 'prominent' military instruction came from; the Communists (Russia or China) or the US.


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## paracowboy (13 May 2006)

yeah, we definitely need a "shaking fist" smiley icon.


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## pbi (13 May 2006)

> Russian President Vladimir Putin offered women cash to have more babies on Wednesday as he tackled a decline in population



Isn't that basically what the Quebec government does? 

But, seriously, those Russians are organized! Imagine arranging all those women to have their babies on Wednesday! Woo! Scary...

Cheers


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## Hot Lips (13 May 2006)

:rofl:

HL


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## Haggis (13 May 2006)

pbi said:
			
		

> Isn't that basically what the Quebec government does?
> 
> But, seriously, those Russians are organized! Imagine arranging all those women to have their babies on Wednesday! Woo! Scary...



And in true Soviet tradition, the Russians will press gang several battalions into assisting with the sowing of seeds and the harvest.... ;D


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## a_majoor (22 May 2006)

From Strategypage

http://www.strategypage.com/qnd/russia/articles/20060522.aspx



> If present trends continue, the population of Russia will decline from 143 million to 100 million by 2050. Not only that, but by 2050, most of the population may be Moslem. Currently, about 15 percent of Russians are Moslem, and the average Moslem family has three or more children, while the average non-Moslem family has one or two. While Christian (largely Slavic) Russians have seen their numbers tumble, the Moslem population of Russia has grown over 40 percent since 1989 (from births, migration and conversions). There has also been a religious revival, with the number of mosques growing from under a thousand when the Soviet Union collapsed, to over 8,000 today. That means Moslem men drink a lot less, and live healthier, and longer, lives. . . .
> 
> The 70 years of communist rule was very damaging and demoralizing to most Russians, as it was to other nations that endured less of it in Eastern Europe. Prosperity and democracy have arrived in a fitful and threadbare state. Things are getting better, but that usually means that women have fewer children. It's been that way for thousands of years. The aristocrats were notorious for having small families, and the main reason was that the wealthy wives had better, and less arduous, things to do than pregnancy and child rearing. Because of that, Russia will probably have a larger Moslem minority by 2050, but not a majority, because even Moslem women have fewer children as they become educated and more affluent.


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