# 2016:  Canada considers new Libya military mission?



## Old Sweat (13 Feb 2016)

And now another operation looms as the MND raises the possibility of Canada committing unspecified military resources to operations against ISIS in Libya in this CBC story reproduced under the Fair Dealing provision of the Copyright Act.

*Harjit Sajjan hints at a Canadian military mission in Libya*

Defence Minister Harjit Sajjan says Canada could soon join a military coalition to take on ISIS in Libya, a country beset by a civil war and mounting Islamic terrorism.

"I had a good meeting with my counterpart, the minister of defence from Italy, [on military intervention in Libya]," Sajjan said following a NATO defence ministers' meeting in Brussels..
"Italy is willing to take the lead on this; once we have a good understanding of the political situation, that will allow us to figure out what we need to do," said in an interview with Chris Hall on CBC Radio's The House.


More than four years after Moammar Gadhafi was deposed — in large part due to Western military intervention — Islamic State militants have taken advantage of the resulting political vacuum to establish themselves in Libya's coastal cities.

An estimated 3,000 ISIS fighters are in the country, which has been attracting more foreign recruits in recent months as the journey to Iraq and Syria has become more difficult with Turkey tightening its border with Syria.

Italy has said it wants a leadership role in stabilizing Libya — one of its former colonial possessions — because it is located less than 300 km from the Italian island of Lampedusa.

ISIS-backed elements have carried out several attacks on oil installations, and at least 60 were killed by an suicide bombing against a Libyan police training center earlier this month.

"Before we can actually say 'Yes we're interested,' 'Yes we can do this,' we're doing what all responsible coalition partners should do [asses the political and security situation] and then decide if we have the right capabilities to assist in this mission.

"We will be part of that conversation," Sajjan said.

The defence minister said that any military action in Libya would be based on lessons learned from Canada's experience in Afghanistan.

"It's all about fighting smarter ... there needs to be a political structure in place that you can reinforce so that when you have the military gains you then have a political structure," to safeguard peace and quell ethnic tensions, he said.

At the recent anti-ISIS meeting in Paris — Canada was not invited — Roberta Pinotti, Italy's defence minister, said action must be taken to beat back advances made by the Islamic State.

"We cannot imagine waiting until spring while the situation in Libya is still frozen," she said. "Efforts to resolve the Libyan crisis must be coordinated internationally," Pinotti added, warning that "it is impossible for the international intervention to wait until the upcoming spring."

Pinotti said that there was "total agreement" among the coalition partners at the Paris meeting that Libya's government should ask the West for help to fight ISIS, to avoid fuelling "jihadist propaganda" of yet another "Western invasion."

She went on to say that the so-called Islamic State was strengthening in the current political vacuum, prompting Italy and its allies to prepare for an "emergency," adding that the United States recently has expressed "a greater concern" over ISIS militants in Libya.

With files from Reuters


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## PuckChaser (13 Feb 2016)

I don't think the Liberals understand that we can't support 3 separate theatres at the same time, with the money they're going to give us. REASSURANCE, IMPACT, and now this one? I know we were all begging for missions post-Afghanistan, but Chretien-style mass deployments while reaping the peace-dividend for defense spending is a good way to lose your best troops, and at worst get someone killed.


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## MJP (13 Feb 2016)

PuckChaser said:
			
		

> I don't think the Liberals understand that we can't support 3 separate theatres at the same time, with the money they're going to give us. REASSURANCE, IMPACT, and now this one? I know we were all begging for missions post-Afghanistan, but Chretien-style mass deployments while reaping the peace-dividend for defense spending is a good way to lose your best troops, and at worst get someone killed.



Money for operations largely don't come from the normal budget.


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## PuckChaser (13 Feb 2016)

I'm more thinking we don't have the equipment resources, not necessarily money. Operational money doesn't buy us extra vehicles/equipment, we're taking that from Canada, depleting the stock, or taking right from units who are training with it.


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## McG (13 Feb 2016)

PuckChaser said:
			
		

> I don't think the Liberals understand that we can't support 3 separate theatres at the same time, with the money they're going to give us. REASSURANCE, IMPACT, and now this one? I know we were all begging for missions post-Afghanistan, but Chretien-style mass deployments while reaping the peace-dividend for defense spending is a good way to lose your best troops, and at worst get someone killed.


Three theaters are supportable.  We typically have many international missions on the go.  The key is that not every mission is a reinforced battle group with an air task force.  I would wait for some details before speculating this will break the CAF.



			
				MJP said:
			
		

> Money for operations largely don't come from the normal budget.


That varies with time and governments.  Hopefully it is the way hat we continue to go forward.


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## George Wallace (13 Feb 2016)

PuckChaser said:
			
		

> I don't think the Liberals understand that we can't support 3 separate theatres at the same time, with the money they're going to give us. REASSURANCE, IMPACT, and now this one? I know we were all begging for missions post-Afghanistan, but Chretien-style mass deployments while reaping the peace-dividend for defense spending is a good way to lose your best troops, and at worst get someone killed.



Perhaps they plan on purchasing three Mistrals from France and permanently station two BGs offshore to act as expeditionary forces. :dunno:


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## MJP (13 Feb 2016)

MCG said:
			
		

> That varies with time and governments.  Hopefully it is the way hat we continue to go forward.



True I should have qualified it with a in recent Operations caveat.


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## Kat Stevens (13 Feb 2016)

Are we going to whip out our F-18s?  I really hope so, the hypocrisy would be hilarious.


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## GRACE OMALLEY (13 Feb 2016)

http://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/what-a-former-special-ops-commander-thinks-of-justin-trudeaus-isis-plan/


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## MarkOttawa (13 Feb 2016)

One suspects CBC spin in the story; Trudeau II is not going to get us involved militarily in Libya whilst desperately trying to find a UN "peacekeeping" mission in which to take part:



> Trudeau and UN chief Ban Ki-moon to talk climate, refugees, peacekeeping
> http://leadercall.com/2016/02/trudeau-and-un-chief-ban-ki-moon-to-talk-climate-refugees/



Earlier:



> Canada’s New Government and UN Peacekeeping in Africa
> https://cgai3ds.wordpress.com/2016/01/06/mark-collins-canadas-new-government-and-un-peacekeeping-in-africa/
> 
> Former Liberal Defence Minister Wants Canada to Help Fight Jihadis in Africa
> https://cgai3ds.wordpress.com/2016/01/19/mark-collins-former-liberal-defence-minister-wants-canada-to-help-fight-jihadis-in-africa/



Mark
Ottawa


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## Fishbone Jones (13 Feb 2016)

So, we're going to try make inroads to Africa again. Peacekeeping in Africa is not a job for western whites. Nobody, good or bad, on that continent wants us there, no matter what, or how, we plan on doing things for them. That includes peacekeeping, which is actually peacemaking as there is no peace to keep. They might be wearing UN blue, but they'll end up doing the same thing we did in Afghanistan. Which was neither peacekeeping or peacemaking. Africa has not forgotten it's time under colonial rule and doesn't want to see us (white military) there again.

Joe Civie doesn't care though. So long as the Trudeau Liberals spin it to their base as a return to being the world's boy scouts and not Harper's warmongering, even though in this case, they might be the same thing.

When our soldiers start getting killed, blown up and into full on fire fights, it'll be interesting to see how this government will square that with the Canadian population.


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## PuckChaser (13 Feb 2016)

Its apparently not a job for African Union troops either, they're doing a terrible job at it right now.


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## daftandbarmy (13 Feb 2016)

PuckChaser said:
			
		

> Its apparently not a job for African Union troops either, they're doing a terrible job at it right now.



There is no peace to keep in Libya, so this should be interesting.


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## MilEME09 (14 Feb 2016)

recceguy said:
			
		

> When our soldiers start getting killed, blown up and into full on fire fights, it'll be interesting to see how this government will square that with the Canadian population.



Sweep it under the rug like the Medak pocket? oh wait social media and todays media would probably stop that from happening.


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## Eye In The Sky (14 Feb 2016)

A slightly older article, but related to this thread.

U.S. and Allies Weigh Military Action Against ISIS in Libya

WASHINGTON — Worried about a growing threat from the Islamic State in Libya, the United States and its allies are increasing reconnaissance flights and intelligence collecting there and preparing for possible airstrikes and commando raids, senior American policy makers, commanders and intelligence officials said this week.

While no decision has been finalized about when the United States and its allies will formally expand action in Libya against the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, administration officials indicated that it might be very soon. A decision will probably come in “weeks” but “not hours,” Gen. Joseph F. Dunford Jr., the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Friday.

“It’s fair to say that we’re looking to take decisive military action against ISIL in conjunction with the political process” in Libya, General Dunford said. “The president has made clear that we have the authority to use military force.”

United States and British Special Operations teams have for months been conducting clandestine reconnaissance missions in Libya to identify militant leaders and map out their networks. Separate teams of American Special Operations forces have over the past year been trying to court allies from among a patchwork of Libyan militias that remain unreliable, unaccountable, poorly organized and divided by region and tribe.

In recent weeks, military commanders have intensified their warnings about the threat from the Islamic State in Libya, where Western officials believe the group now has about 3,000 fighters. Recruits are pouring into Libya weekly, as the journey to Iraq and Syria has become more difficult with Turkey tightening its border with Syria, intelligence officials said.

General Dunford said the United States, France, Italy and Britain are looking with urgency at how to stem the growth in the power of the Islamic State in Libya before it spreads throughout North Africa and the sub-Saharan countries. In particular, he said it was important to “put a firewall” between the Islamic State in Libya and other militant Islamic extremist groups on the African continent, while working to strengthen the ability of African militaries and governments to fight those groups themselves.

Meeting in Europe this week with counterparts from Britain, Italy and France, General Dunford discussed a broad array of military options to turn up the pressure on the Islamic State in Libya.

Officials said there was agreement that the United States and its allies needed to find ways of shoring up Libya’s new government of national accord — established just this week with help from the United Nations but stuck, as of now, in a hotel in Tunis.

France, General Dunford said, will work closely with the United States Africa Command on a plan.

But that may be particularly challenging given that the new government has yet to gain support from the opposing parliaments in Tripoli and Tobruk, separated by the length of the country.

“Although I want to move quickly,” General Dunford told reporters traveling with him in Paris on Friday, “we’ve got to make sure we do this right.” He said that “unchecked, I am concerned about the spread of ISIL in Libya,” adding that he believed that “military leaders owe the president a way ahead.”

All this week, other top American defense leaders were sounding similar notes. “Libya will continue to be a challenge in the year to come, illustrating the new reality where small organizations wield undeserved power,” Defense Secretary Ashton B. Carter said in a speech in Paris.

“There is a concern about Libya,” Gen. Joseph L. Votel, the head of the military’s Special Operations Command, said at a conference in Washington this week. “It can’t all be about Iraq and Syria.”

Libya could present the West with challenges equal to those an American-led coalition faces in fighting the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq. In those two countries, the Islamic State is hemmed in by a host of armed groups with international backing and is being pummeled by American, British and other allied airstrikes.

In Libya, where a NATO bombing campaign helped overthrow Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi four years ago, there is no functional government. Warring factions are far more focused on fighting one another than on battling the Islamic State, and Libya’s neighbors are all too weak or unstable to lead or even host a military intervention.

On Tuesday, Libya’s Presidential Council announced a new government to bring together the groups. But the cabinet nominees still need to be approved by Libya’s internationally recognized Parliament, which sits in Tobruk, in the east.

The Islamic State already has established exclusive control of more than 150 miles of Mediterranean coastline near Surt, Mr. Qaddafi’s hometown.

One of the Islamic State’s most senior leaders, a former Iraqi Army officer under Saddam Hussein now known as Abu Ali al-Anbari, arrived late last year in Libya by boat from across the Mediterranean, residents and Western officials say. Another senior Islamic State operative from Syria, known as Abu Omar, also arrived in Libya recently to help cement the group’s gains, American intelligence officials said this week.

Another senior Iraqi leader of the Islamic State — Wissam Najm Abd Zayd al Zubaydi, also known as Abu Nabil — may have served as the group’s top commander in Libya until he was killed in November in an American airstrike near the eastern Libyan city of Darnah.

Counterterrorism officials regard the Libyan branch as the Islamic State’s most dangerous affiliate, one that is expanding its territory and continuing to mount deadly attacks, including several this month.

“The ISIL branch in Libya is one that is taking advantage of the deteriorating security conditions in Libya, putting itself in the position to coordinate ISIL efforts across North Africa,” Nicholas J. Rasmussen, the director of the National Counterterrorism Center, said in an interview on C-Span last month.

President Obama’s top national security and foreign policy advisers have participated in several high-level meetings, called principals and deputies meetings, in recent weeks to discuss a range of diplomatic and military options for Libya.

“On ISIS in Libya, we have to be more assertive,” said Ben Fishman, a former top National Security Council official on North Africa affairs and editor of a new book, “North Africa in Transition.” “We have to increase bombing of ISIS while we are working to support the new unity government.”


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## Eye In The Sky (14 Feb 2016)

Article Link

ISIS shoots down fighter jet in Libya’s Benghazi

AFP, Benghazi, LibyaSaturday, 13 February 2016

A MiG-23 fighter of Libya’s internationally recognized government was shot down Friday as it carried out air strikes on opposition positions in the coastal city of Benghazi, the military said.

Nasser el-Hassi, spokesman for the government’s forces, told AFP the plane was “shot down in Qaryunes, northwest Benghazi, as it bombed positions of the (Mujahedeen) Shura Council”, a coalition of Islamist militias close to Al-Qaeda.

The ISIS militant group claimed its fighters downed the plane, according to SITE Intelligence Group, a U.S. monitor of militant activity on the Internet.

A military source said the pilot survived having parachuted to safety, but his whereabouts were not immediately clear.

It was the second military air crash this week.

On Monday, another MiG-23 operated by forces loyal to Libya’s recognized government crashed near the eastern city of Derna after attacking ISIS positions.

LANA news agency, which is close to the recognized government, blamed “technical problems” for the downing.

Before crashing, the fighter had carried out raids on ISIS positions around 15 kilometers (nine miles) from Derna.

Two administrations are vying for power in war-ravaged Libya, one based in the capital Tripoli backed by a coalition of militias, and the recognized government, exiled in the east.

In early January, another MiG 23 came down in Benghazi, the main city in the east.

Chaos engulfing Libya since the fall of Dictator Moamer Qaddafi’s regime in 2011 has fostered the rise of ISIS which has based itself in the former dictator’s hometown of Sirte in eastern Libya.
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* that is not a Flogger in the picture in the article.


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## George Wallace (14 Feb 2016)

daftandbarmy said:
			
		

> There is no peace to keep in Libya, so this should be interesting.



As a launching point for many "Migrants" travelling to Italy and southern Europe, perhaps the plan is to patrol the coasts and stop the migration.


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## Retired AF Guy (14 Feb 2016)

Eye In The Sky said:
			
		

> Article Link
> 
> ISIS shoots down fighter jet in Libya’s Benghazi
> 
> ...



According to Wikipedia the only twin-engine fighter the Libyans have is the Mig-25 Foxbat.


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## SupersonicMax (14 Feb 2016)

Pretty sure it's a recycled picture of the F-15E that crashed near Benghazi in 2011 during OUP...


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## Eye In The Sky (14 Feb 2016)

SupersonicMax said:
			
		

> Pretty sure it's a recycled picture of the F-15E that crashed near Benghazi in 2011 during OUP...



Yup!  http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1368633/Libya-war-US-chopper-shoots-6-villagers-welcomed-Air-Force-F-15-crash-pilots.html


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## Fishbone Jones (14 Feb 2016)

The MND has said we are going to be part of the mission. At least, once they figure out what kind of contribution we can give. However, once again, Canada does not seem to have a seat at the table with the United States, France, Italy and Britain, or we are not being acknowledged, at any rate. Deja vu all over again?


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## daftandbarmy (15 Feb 2016)

I smell another, no doubt well intentioned/ do gooder focused but destined to be messed up, 'Merican Crusade'. Unless they can round up a coalition of two or three Corps in size, of course:


US Considering 'Military Action' in Libya to 'Save' Africa From Daesh



Having messed up in Iraq and Syria, the United States is now eyeing Libya as the next potential place where Washington’s “decisive military action” is needed.


Citing a growing threat of Daesh's (Islamic State) expansion in Libya, the US government is considering the idea of sending its military to wipe out the terrorists in the North African nation.


Read more: http://sputniknews.com/africa/20160123/1033610383/us-military-intervention-libya.html#ixzz40CuC3CJn


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## The Bread Guy (15 Feb 2016)

Here's some more tidbits of some recent open source info (highlights mine) ...


> Italy has declared itself "ready" for military intervention in Libya, following the formation of a new government of national unity in the country on Tuesday. Italy is expected to lead an international mission, backed by Germany, diplomatic sources say.
> 
> Paolo Gentiloni, Italian minister of foreign affairs, called the advancement "a crucial step forwards in a still fragile situation," declaring that there is now "a real opportunity for stability in the country, which must be seized by all" and that "Italy is ready to play its part."
> 
> ...


... as well as some kernels from a usually-over-the-top source (no more or less so than Sputnik Russian-state media, I guess, but let's throw it in to triangulate):


> ... The latest crack in the façade (for those paying attention), is the deployment of a joint British-Italian force consisting of 6,000 soldiers to Libya under the guise of defeating ISIS.
> 
> (...)
> 
> ...


Here's a bit more from late last year in Brit media:


> Britain could launch military action in Libya next, Government sources have said amid fears that Islamic State militants will use their new stronghold along a stretch of the Mediterranean coast to target Europe.
> 
> Ministers at the Foreign Office and Ministry of Defence say they are “extremely concerned" by the rapid rise of Isil and other extremist groups in Libya and are considering plans for intervening to tackle the threat.
> 
> ...


As for Libya's government asking, it appears we _MAY_ be a step closer to having a government to do tha asking ...


> Libya's Presidential Council named a revised lineup late on Sunday for a unity government under a United Nations-backed plan aimed at ending the conflict in the North African state.
> 
> One of the council's members, Fathi al-Majbari, said in a televised statement that the list of 13 ministers and five ministers of state had been sent to Libya's eastern parliament for approval.
> 
> ...


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## The Bread Guy (17 Feb 2016)

A few tidbits:

*Fmr NATO boss:  Canada (and others) should jump into Libya now to avoid another Syria*
*“Time not yet ripe for airstrikes in Libya, UN mediator in Libya warns”*
*“The barbaric and elusive Chechen commander who recruited British executioner “Jihadi John” has moved to Sirte, Libya to assume control of ISIS operations in the terrorist organization’s metastasizing Mediterranean caliphate …”*
*“Libya MPs postpone vote on new unity government”*


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## The Bread Guy (17 Feb 2016)

And what do the neighbours think?

Tunisia:


> Tunisia’s Foreign Minister, Khmais Al-Jihinawi, has renewed his country’s rejection of any kind of foreign intervention in Libya, saying that Tunisia is against any military action in Libya.
> 
> FM Al-Jihinawi added, in a joint press conference with his Iraqi counterpart, Ibrahim Al-Jaafari, that his country is trying its best to prevent an expected military action in Libya because they know that it won’t solve any conflict in there. He also emphasized on Tunisia’s support for the peaceful solution in Libya and the importance of the Arabic national security whether in the Arab Maghreb or in the Gulf.
> 
> “Libya has special case in the region, thus Tunisia and all of the neighbors plus the Arab League countries aim to push Libyans to reach a political solution among themselves, then form a government that takes place in Tripoli and assume responsibility ...


Algeria:


> Algeria has been reinforcing military presence on the borderline with violence-ridden Libya amid potential foreign military operation against IS-linked groups, local media reported Wednesday.
> 
> Quoting a security source, Echorouk newspaper reported that army troops deployed on border with Libya have been put in alert and ordered to open fire on any armed individual attempting to enter the Algerian territory.
> 
> ...


op:


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## The Bread Guy (17 Feb 2016)

A bit more detail on this point ...


			
				milnews.ca said:
			
		

> ... *“Time not yet ripe for airstrikes in Libya, UN mediator in Libya warns”* ...





> ... Kobler, a German diplomat appointed in November to head the UN‘s assistance mission in Libya, told dpa it was "important not to put the cart before the horse" with airstrikes at a delicate time.
> 
> In the long run, combating Islamic State jihadists will require not just bombs from the air but boots on the ground to recapture the towns and villages already under the group‘s control around Sirte along part of Libya‘s Mediterranean coast, he said.
> 
> ...


Now, his latest take speaking to the Associated Press:


> The U.N. envoy to Libya is urging its parliament to endorse a unity government that can help combat a mushrooming Islamic State affiliate, he told The Associated Press on Wednesday, the fifth anniversary of the uprising that toppled Moammar Gadhafi and plunged the country into chaos.
> 
> "Every day lost in political dialogue is a day of gain of Daesh," Martin Kobler said in the interview, referring to the extremist group by its Arabic acronym. "There is chaos. There is anarchy in which Daesh expands."
> 
> ...


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## The Bread Guy (19 Feb 2016)

More than just hints, now ...

_"Military role for Canada in Libya a possibility: General"_ (_Globe & Mail_)
_"Canada expected to intervene in Libya but experts disagree on how"_ (CTV)
_"Libya could be Canada’s next engagement in ISIS fight, top general says"_ (_Toronto Star_)
_"Canada to Be ‘Somehow’ Involved in Resolving Crisis in Libya"_ (RIA Novosti, Russian state media)


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## jollyjacktar (19 Feb 2016)

Well, the fighters aren't busy in Syria anymore


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## Journeyman (20 Feb 2016)

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> More than just hints, now ...
> (_(Globe & Mail)
> (CTV)
> (Toronto Star) _ Pravda 1
> _(RIA Novosti, Russian state media)_ Pravda 2



But not CBC; can't be true.


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## The Bread Guy (20 Feb 2016)

Good news, bad news with the latest bombing effort ...

_"U.S. Air Raid in Libya Leaves over 40 Dead, Including ISIS Leader"_
_"2 Serbian embassy staff kidnapped by ISIS killed in US bombing in Libya "_


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## Quirky (20 Feb 2016)

It won't be a combat mission, but we will send in "advisors" to assist and train on the ground. Our non-combat fighters jets with non-combat bombs will destroy ground targets. It won't be a combat mission though and no one will be in any danger.  :


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## MarkOttawa (20 Feb 2016)

Map of ISIS in Libya



> https://twitter.com/criticalthreats/status/701134628007124992



Canadian intelligence role (CSE, CSIS, military) as for Iraq/Syria?



> Fighting ISIS: Boosting Canadian Intelligence in-Theatre
> https://cgai3ds.wordpress.com/2016/02/19/mark-collins-fighting-isis-boosting-canadian-intelligence-in-theatre



Mark
Ottawa


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## The Bread Guy (20 Feb 2016)

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Good news, bad news with the latest bombing effort ...
> 
> _"U.S. Air Raid in Libya Leaves over 40 Dead, Including ISIS Leader"_
> _"2 Serbian embassy staff kidnapped by ISIS killed in US bombing in Libya "_


Not exactly an auspicious response from the government ...
_"Libya slams US airstrike on Sabratha as flagrant violation of sovereignty"_


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## Colin Parkinson (24 Feb 2016)

Ok so if we go into Libya, it would make sense to start in the Benghazi area, secure the port, the good thing about this mission is we won’t be stabbed in the back by the likes of Pakistan, Logistical costs will be significantly less than Afghanistan. The diplomatic front needs to be secured first, is the government going to work with such a mission and are able to stomach that government? If the answer is yes to those, start moving outwards from the “safe” areas, doing what we did in Afghanistan, SF starts to degrade the ISIS types, while we try to get the local police and army up to snuff and let them do most of the work and have our foreign affairs types attempt to keep the government from screwing over various groups. Egypt will likely support such a move, Tunisia not so much but could be easily bribed not to interfere. Likely the same for Algeria. Focus most of our efforts within 200km of the coast. The southern interior will not be easy and once the coast is secured the Libyans can start sorting out their own crap.  Repeat and rinse for the next 10 years…


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## Jed (24 Feb 2016)

Colin P said:
			
		

> Ok so if we go into Libya, it would make sense to start in the Benghazi area, secure the port, the good thing about this mission is we won’t be stabbed in the back by the likes of Pakistan, Logistical costs will be significantly less than Afghanistan. The diplomatic front needs to be secured first, is the government going to work with such a mission and are able to stomach that government? If the answer is yes to those, start moving outwards from the “safe” areas, doing what we did in Afghanistan, SF starts to degrade the ISIS types, while we try to get the local police and army up to snuff and let them do most of the work and have our foreign affairs types attempt to keep the government from screwing over various groups. Egypt will likely support such a move, Tunisia not so much but could be easily bribed not to interfere. Likely the same for Algeria. Focus most of our efforts within 200km of the coast. The southern interior will not be easy and once the coast is secured the Libyans can start sorting out their own crap.  Repeat and rinse for the next 10 years…



Good summation, especially the part about repeat and rinse for the next 10 years. (or more)


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## The Bread Guy (27 Feb 2016)

In Libya, we now have open source reports saying Brit, American and French SF are in the neighbourhood, helping out.

Here's a map of who's "controlling" what in Libya (source)


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## The Bread Guy (1 Mar 2016)

Who else may be in the show ...

_"UK to send troops to help guard Libya-Tunisia border"_
_"Tunisia backs plan to host German troops to train Libyan army"_
_"Italy has offered lead role in Libya"_
_"The Pentagon is prepared to expand military operations against the Islamic State faction in Libya, but only after the war-torn county agrees on a national unity government ..."_


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## daftandbarmy (2 Mar 2016)

Without a common political and economic end game we will likely see our efforts wasted, yet again, in a cockeyed/ optimistic attempt to bring peace to Libya using a miltaty led approach.


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## Edward Campbell (2 Mar 2016)

daftandbarmy said:
			
		

> Without a common _political and economic end game_ we will likely see our efforts wasted, yet again, in a cockeyed/ optimistic attempt to bring peace to Libya using a miltaty led approach.




Oh, you're talking about one of those pesky "grand strategy" thingies ... I don't think that almost anyone has one: the Chinese probably do, but the rest of the world wouldn't like it, even if they did tell us what it was all about; the French usually do ~ and it usually brings the rest of us to a bad end; The Americans had one (several, actually) in the early 1940s, in the later '40s and through to, about, 1960 and, again, around 2000 when the Project for the New American Century scared the bejeezus out of almost everyone; the Brits had one, too, up until about 1900, but they forgot it, because everyone was preoccupied with the trivial, indeed nonsensical Irish Home Rule question, and the result was the First World War ~ from the scourge of which (and that of its 20 year old "son") the UN was founded to save us all.  :

The thing about a grand strategy is that no one, except you, has to like yours but everyone really ought to have one ... to remind yourself, at least, about what it is that you need to do _*about*_, in concert with _*with*_, occasionally _*for*_ and, now and again even _*to*_ all the other countries in the world as you promote and protect your own, national _*vital interests*_.

There was, for one brief, shining moment, a notion that the UN might provide a global grand strategy for keeping the peace ... and Dr Ralph Bunche, an American, and Sir Brian Urquhart, a Brit, actually developed one in the late 1940s, when they (not Mike Pearson ... sorry boys and girls, but your school teachers and professors are, _*mostly*_ (Army.ca members excepted), dimwits, and most of you, being somewhat dimmer, believed them  :tsktsk: ) invented peacekeeping. But that didn't last long because Russia had a grand strategy, too ...

Anyways, the UNSC cannot thing strategically if it can think at all; Russia has a strategy, but it's not very grand, being exemplified by low, peasant cunning rather than rational self interest; America is adrift; the EU is anything but united and that leaves ... China and _Da'esh_/ISIL/ISIS, I guess.


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## daftandbarmy (3 Mar 2016)

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> Oh, you're talking about one of those pesky "grand strategy" thingies ... I don't think that almost anyone has one: the Chinese probably do, but the rest of the world wouldn't like it, even if they did tell us what it was all about; the French usually do ~ and it usually brings the rest of us to a bad end; The Americans had one (several, actually) in the early 1940s, in the later '40s and through to, about, 1960 and, again, around 2000 when the Project for the New American Century scared the bejeezus out of almost everyone; the Brits had one, too, up until about 1900, but they forgot it, because everyone was preoccupied with the trivial, indeed nonsensical Irish Home Rule question, and the result was the First World War ~ from the scourge of which (and that of its 20 year old "son") the UN was founded to save us all.  :
> 
> The thing about a grand strategy is that no one, except you, has to like yours but everyone really ought to have one ... to remind yourself, at least, about what it is that you need to do _*about*_, in concert with _*with*_, occasionally _*for*_ and, now and again even _*to*_ all the other countries in the world as you promote and protect your own, national _*vital interests*_.
> 
> ...



In the absence of a coherent higher level plan (e.g., 'Germany First')  think we have, sadly, been sucked into the Grand Strategy of 'scalp taking' and 'body counts', which, of course, is doomed to failure.


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## The Bread Guy (7 Mar 2016)

In case you're interested, an intriguing guide (17 page PDF, from 2013) to the good & bad guys in Libya from globalsecurity.org - enjoy!

Edited to add another ref (31 pg PDF, from 2014) with a rundown of all sides, recommended by the author of the link shown above.


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## daftandbarmy (7 Mar 2016)

Tripoli, a Tense and Listless City With Gunmen and a Well-Stocked Hugo Boss Outlet

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/07/world/middleeast/tripoli-a-tense-and-listless-city-with-gunmen-and-a-well-stocked-boss-outlet.html mc=edit_th_20160307&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=18033910&_r=0


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## The Bread Guy (17 Mar 2016)

The latest:  _"Canada wants long-term plan before saying 'yes' to new Libyan anti-ISIL mission"_:


> Canada would need to hear a number of things from its allies — notably a long-term strategy — before deciding to commit troops to an Italian-led training mission in Libya to counter the advance of Islamic extremists, says Defence Minister Harjit Sajjan.
> 
> Signs that western allies are preparing for some kind of intervention in the North African country have been growing stronger in the last few weeks and Sajjan has already indicated that the Trudeau government is willing to consider some kind of involvement.
> 
> ...


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## The Bread Guy (31 Mar 2016)

I think this headline sort of sums up the current situation ...
*"Libya now has three governments, none of which can actually govern"*


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## Kirkhill (4 Apr 2016)

Libya as it has always been:

Hellenic Cyrenaica.  Carthaginian (Phoenician) Africa. Berbers in the desert.


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## The Bread Guy (25 May 2016)

The latest, shared under the Fair Dealing provisions of the _Copyright Act (R.S.C., 1985, c. C-42)_ ...


> Canada's top general says military intervention in Libya is not inevitable.
> 
> Gen. Jonathan Vance, the chief of the defence staff, says he's not advocating one way or another for Canada to join a possible western military coalition in Libya.
> 
> ...


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## The Bread Guy (31 May 2016)

Uh, yeah, that would be good ...

*"UN envoy: Libyan forces should fight IS, not each other"*


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## daftandbarmy (3 Jun 2016)

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Uh, yeah, that would be good ...
> 
> *"UN envoy: Libyan forces should fight IS, not each other"*



Looks like not much has changed since 1916:

The revolt began in 1916 with an estimated 30,000 Bedouins and other tribesmen. To assemble this army, Hussein made deals with various families, clans, and tribes such as the Howeitat and Ruwalla. Many of these irregulars would only fight close to home; all had to be paid. Some tribes would not fight alongside others because of feuds. Most were capricious warriors, battling furiously when the looting was good and the enemy weak, drifting back to their villages when they became bored.

http://www.historynet.com/creating-chaos-lawrence-of-arabia-and-the-1916-arab-revolt.htm


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## jollyjacktar (3 Jun 2016)

daftandbarmy said:
			
		

> Looks like not much has changed since 1916 BC:
> 
> The revolt began in 1916 with an estimated 30,000 Bedouins and other tribesmen. To assemble this army, Hussein made deals with various families, clans, and tribes such as the Howeitat and Ruwalla. Many of these irregulars would only fight close to home; all had to be paid. Some tribes would not fight alongside others because of feuds. Most were capricious warriors, battling furiously when the looting was good and the enemy weak, drifting back to their villages when they became bored.
> 
> http://www.historynet.com/creating-chaos-lawrence-of-arabia-and-the-1916-arab-revolt.htm



FTFY


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## The Bread Guy (3 Jun 2016)

And nothing says, "fueled instability" like questionable currency in the land ...

_"After a plane-load of Russian-printed banknotes landed in eastern Libya this week, residents rushed to collect long-delayed salaries. In Tripoli, where notes dispatched from Britain are yet to be distributed, people queued in vain to withdraw cash ..."_
_"Diplomats fear economic chaos as new Russian-made banknotes are distributed in Libya"_
And just think - "they" say this is ISIS/ISIL/Daesh's next 'hood once Syria's been ... disinfected.


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## The Bread Guy (16 Sep 2016)

_Globe & Mail_, 15 Sept 2016:  _"Canada took part in secret operation to destroy Libyan chemical weapons"_

How "secret" could it have been?

9 Sept 2016:  _"Canada welcomes completion of chemical weapons removal from Libya"_ (GoC Info-machine Canada News Centre)


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## Cloud Cover (16 Sep 2016)

Well,of course they never miss a chance to "unzip" the purse and "whip out" the cheque books.


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## The Bread Guy (16 Sep 2016)

Cloud Cover said:
			
		

> Well,of course they never miss a chance to "unzip" the purse and "whip out" the cheque books.


And if ISIS got a hold of Libya's chemical weapons, it would have been "Sunny Ways didn't stop _that_, did it?" right?


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## Cloud Cover (16 Sep 2016)

I didn't say that, Im just pointing out they would rather write checks than do something that involves, well, doing something.  I suppose we could blame Harper for not having his bombers target that particular arsenal, but that would be pretending something else.


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## The Bread Guy (16 Sep 2016)

Cloud Cover said:
			
		

> I didn't say that, Im just pointing out they would rather write checks than do something that involves, well, *doing something*.


Well, Canada did pay for the special tanks used to help get rid of some nasty stuff.  Even if we didn't blow the crap out of anything (which has had, in hindsight, mixed reviews from previous engagements, where Canada punched above its weight), Canada did _something_.  

And the U.S. is blowing stuff up in Libya, and chose not to blow _this_ stuff up, so it needed taking care of.


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## daftandbarmy (16 Sep 2016)

Cloud Cover said:
			
		

> I didn't say that, Im just pointing out they would rather write checks than do something that involves, well, doing something.  I suppose we could blame Harper for not having his bombers target that particular arsenal, but that would be pretending something else.



Of course, the correct approach is to spark an internecine feud that sees the bad guys blowing up each others' arsenal while we sit back and watch, but who's counting....


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## Eye In The Sky (20 Sep 2016)

Sometimes blowing up chemical arsenals has negative side effects.   :nod:


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