# Post OP ATTENTION Afghanistan: will Taliban take over again?



## BrendenDias (29 Nov 2012)

Once Operation Attention is over, what's stopping the Taliban from controlling Afghanistan again? The Afghan army, I don't believe, will be... whats the word.... maybe trained (could be better ones) enough to control the Taliban on their own.


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## MikeL (29 Nov 2012)

B.Dias said:
			
		

> Once Operation Attention is over, what's stopping the Taliban from controlling Afghanistan again? The Afghan army, I don't believe, will be... whats the word.... maybe trained (could be better ones) enough to control the Taliban on their own.



Op Attention is the Canadian mission,  once we leave there will still be other nations there(for how long,  I do not know).  There have been articles stating that there are considerations to leave some SOF(American) elements in country, etc.

Why do you feel the ANSF(I assume you mean the ANSF as a whole,  not just the ANA) is not trained enough?  What do you believe they are lacking?  There are Kandaks that are conducting operations independently(without ISAF mentors).  IMO it's hard to say what exactly will happen post 2014;  I'm sure it won't be an easy transition and there will be some difficulties.


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## Popurhedoff (29 Nov 2012)

I dont beleive that there will be a complete withdrawl of troops after 2014.  So that there is not a repeat after the Russians left Afghanistan, there will in all likelyhood SF and other troops garrisioned in Kabul.  Protection of the capital city will be paramount. 

Warlords are preparing to defend areas where government has little or no presence. Village elders are also preparing and building up their local defense forces.  This combined with the ANA and ANP will stem the Taliban for awhile, maybe just long enough for the sitting government to request forgien assistance again.

Its going to be sporty to say the least here in Afghanistan in 2014 and afterwards, and no one really knows what will happen other than we know that the Taliban will be coming.  Is the government ready?  I have my doubts.

Cheers
Pop


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## Infanteer (30 Nov 2012)

This well-travelled U.S. Officer seems to think otherwise:

http://armedforcesjournal.com/2012/02/8904030



> Truth, lies and Afghanistan
> How military leaders have let us down
> By LT. COL. DANIEL L. DAVIS
> I spent last year in Afghanistan, visiting and talking with U.S. troops and their Afghan partners. My duties with the Army’s Rapid Equipping Force took me into every significant area where our soldiers engage the enemy. Over the course of 12 months, I covered more than 9,000 miles and talked, traveled and patrolled with troops in Kandahar, Kunar, Ghazni, Khost, Paktika, Kunduz, Balkh, Nangarhar and other provinces.
> ...


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## a_majoor (30 Nov 2012)

The Chinese are very interested in expanding their presence in Afghanistan, and looking at the geography, they may be content to make the Northern part their "sphere of influence" encompassing the Panjshir Valley and the Tajiks.

The Iranians and Pakistanis have various (and not entirely overlapping) interests in the southern portion of Afghanistan.

Of course India has a great interest in Afghanistan as well

I think even if the West abandons Afghanistan, there will be plenty of people with interests in the region who have no interest in the Taliban returning and who will be prepared to take effective action to ensure the Taliban are neutered.


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## daftandbarmy (1 Dec 2012)

It will be like taking your fist out of a bucket of water.... (or a goat)  :nod:


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## Fishbone Jones (1 Dec 2012)

Thucydides said:
			
		

> I think even if the West abandons Afghanistan, there will be plenty of people with interests in the region who have no interest in the Taliban returning and who will be prepared to take effective action to ensure the Taliban are neutered.



Sorry, I don't share your optimism.

If they were concerned they'd be doing something about it now. 

They are not.

Even while the Taliban and Al-Qaeda are operating in their own countries, especially Pakistan.


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## ArmyRick (1 Dec 2012)

I wonder in a snap shot, how much the taliban has changed from 2001 to 2014. They have a ruthless reputation, it will be interesting to see what happens in 2014.

What is, if any, the major driver of the afghan economy?


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## CombatDoc (1 Dec 2012)

ArmyRick said:
			
		

> What is, if any, the major driver of the afghan economy?


Poppy production and foreign aid/military aid money.   Not sure which of these is #1, but I suspect the former.


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## a_majoor (1 Dec 2012)

recceguy said:
			
		

> Sorry, I don't share your optimism.
> 
> If they were concerned they'd be doing something about it now.
> 
> ...



Not exactly optimism. 

The Taliban would receive very rough treatment at the hands of the Chinese, should they disrupt the economic development(s) that China desires, or threaten to spill over radicalism into Chinese territory (Xinjiang especially). The Taliban may gain material assistance from the ISI in order to act as the tool for Pakistan to extend its influence or interests in the region, but Pakistan certainly could not compete one on one with China or India, or even Iran (or Russia, which still has a distant interest as well), much less the combined power of the nations working to secure their own interests (which overlap to some extent; primarily in the stabilization of the region to prevent instability from spilling over into their borders. Even economic competition between these nations is better served with a "quiet" Afghanistan). 

Pakistan may choose to cut their losses in that case, keeping the Taliban on a short leash to play as a threat card, in order to benefit from the economic activities of the larger players. Chinese investments in Pakistan (such as the port at Gwadar) will also serve as a pretty powerful incentive to keep the Taliban quiet.


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