# Op UNIFIER - CAF and the Ukraine Crisis



## The Bread Guy (3 Feb 2015)

Mo' help from Canada - in this case, helping train Ukrainian military police ....


> The Honourable Rob Nicholson, P.C., Q.C, M.P. for Niagara Falls and Minister of National Defence, announced today that Canada will join the US – Ukraine Joint Commission on Defence Reform and Bilateral Cooperation in order to better coordinate Canada’s ongoing provision of assistance to the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
> 
> The US-Ukraine Joint Commission is the most effective and efficient venue for Canada to ensure the donations and training opportunities provided to Ukraine are appropriate, coordinated and synchronized with Canada’s ally the United States. Canada and Ukraine are committed to continue working together to strengthen the capacity of the Ukrainian Government and its security forces to defend Ukraine’s territorial integrity and its people. At the invitation of the Joint Commission, Canada will lead the Military Police Sub-committee and will coordinate the Joint Commission’s training assistance efforts to Ukraine’s military police.
> 
> ...


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## McG (2 Apr 2015)

It looks like we will be sending an observer/trainer mission to Ukraine beginning in May.

http://www.ipolitics.ca/2015/04/01/canada-to-send-military-advisors-to-ukraine/


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## PPCLI Guy (2 Apr 2015)

I am pretty sure that it a training mission.  Not sure where they got the observer part from.


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## McG (2 Apr 2015)

Any word on mission name?


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## SupersonicMax (2 Apr 2015)

Reassurance?


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## PPCLI Guy (2 Apr 2015)

That is the NATO mission.  This one will no doubt start with a "U".


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## McG (10 Apr 2015)

More reports of a training mission to the Ukraine, but still little details.
I bet there is actually a lot they could teach us right now on the requirement for artillery and armour in numbers.


> Canada to send troops to Ukraine in non-combat role
> CTV News
> 10 Apr 2015
> 
> ...


http://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/canada-to-send-troops-to-ukraine-in-non-combat-role-1.2321894


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## TCBF (10 Apr 2015)

- This will not end well.


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## Pat in Halifax (11 Apr 2015)

And the aggressor there is not an uneducated, undomesticated extremist.


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## MilEME09 (11 Apr 2015)

Well here comes another election issue


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## McG (14 Apr 2015)

PM's announcement is apparently coming tomorrow (Tuesday).


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## The Bread Guy (14 Apr 2015)

MCG said:
			
		

> PM's announcement is apparently coming tomorrow (Tuesday).


About an hour from this post ....


> 9:30 a.m. – Prime Minister Stephen Harper will make an announcement. He will be joined by Jason Kenney, Minister of National Defence and Minister for Multiculturalism, and General Thomas Lawson, Chief of the Defence Staff.
> 
> National Defence Headquarters
> 101 Colonel By Drive
> Ottawa, Ontario ....


.... followed by another DefMin/CDS chat with media shortly thereafter?


> Minister of National Defence, Jason Kenney and Chief of the Defence Staff, General Tom Lawson will hold a media opportunity on 14 April 2015, in Conference Room D, National Defence Headquarters.
> 
> Participants list (subject to change):
> 
> ...


And here's what The Canadian Press has heard ....


> Canada appears set to join a U.S.-led training mission to shore up the capabilities of the battered and bloodied Ukrainian military.
> 
> A defence source says the Harper government is expected to announce the deployment of training troops _ possibly over 100. Most of them are expected to be housed at an existing NATO training centre located in Yavoriv, in the western portion of the embattled European country, near the Polish border.
> 
> ...


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## The Bread Guy (14 Apr 2015)

First word via PMO - highlights mine:


> Prime Minister Stephen Harper today announced that the Government of Canada will provide significant additional military resources to help train and build the capacity of Ukrainian forces personnel. The announcement was made following a briefing on the current security situation in Ukraine with Jason Kenney, Minister of National Defence and Minister for Multiculturalism, and General Tom Lawson, Chief of the Defence Staff.
> 
> *Canada will be deploying approximately 200 Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) personnel to Ukraine until March 31, 2017, to develop and deliver military training and capacity-building programs for Ukrainian forces personnel.* CAF members will be deployed on both a sustained and periodic basis depending on the type of training being conducted. *Their activities will include explosive ordnance disposal and improvised explosive device disposal training, military police training, medical training, flight safety training, and logistics system modernization training*. Canada will also be *providing individual and unit tactics training to Ukrainian National Guard personnel along with the United States*.
> 
> ...


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## Chispa (14 Apr 2015)

From the NP National Post:
According to a news release issued Tuesday, Canada will deploy about 200 military personnel to Ukraine until March 31, 2017, “to develop and deliver military training and capacity-building programs for Ukrainian forces personnel.”

Their activities will include: explosive ordnance disposal and improvised explosive device disposal training, military police training, medical training, flight safety training, and logistics system modernization training.

As well, Canadian troops will work alongside United States personnel to provide “individual and unit tactics training” to the Ukrainian National Guard.
Canada will also be sending 22 Harris high-frequency radios, 238 pairs of PVS-7 night vision goggles, 1,134 tactical medical kits, a mobile field hospital structure and some explosive ordnance disposal equipment to Ukraine.


PVS 14 would be recommended however overall sure the Russian will be very upset with Canada’s contribution.


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## McG (14 Apr 2015)

Looks like avoiding deeply embedded Russian intelligence operators will be one of the principle challenges when we get into this training mission.  I am a little skeptical of the claim our Afghan combat experience is particularly beneficial to this mission.  There are a lot of still relevant lessons that we have from Afghanistan.  However, this is the oft referred peer or near-peer fight; a lot of the related knowledge and skill sets had been allowed to atrophy over the past years as we focused training efforts on the current war.


> Russian infiltration of Ukrainian military complicates Canadian training mission
> Matthew Fisher
> National Post
> 14 April 2015
> ...


http://news.nationalpost.com/news/world/russian-infiltration-of-ukrainian-military-complicates-canadian-training-mission


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## blacktriangle (14 Apr 2015)

MCG said:
			
		

> However, this is the oft referred peer or near-peer fight; a lot of the related knowledge and skill sets had been allowed to atrophy over the past years as we focused training efforts on the current war.



We certainly won't be providing much ATGM or SAM trg.  ;D


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## MilEME09 (14 Apr 2015)

Sounds like to me the biggest threat to the Ukraine is the enemy within, you can't execute an operation if the enemy knows the plan before the field commander does.


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## McG (21 Apr 2015)

Polls say that a plurality of Canadians support the Ukraine mission.  Almost 50% support while less than 40% oppose.
If only greater support for military deployments would translate into greater support for military funding and investment.



> *Almost half of Canadians support Ukraine military mission: new poll*
> *Anglophones, males and Canadians living in Alberta and the prairies all polled more than 50 per cent in support of the mission, while half of those surveyed from Quebec and in lower income groups disapproved.*
> Craig Lord
> The Hill Times
> ...


http://www.hilltimes.com/news/news/2015/04/20/almost-half-of-canadians-support-ukraine-military-mission-new-poll/41864


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## Colin Parkinson (21 Apr 2015)

I suspect most of the training will be in basic section tactics, hasty defenses and a larger focus on basic officer skill sets. I suppose also they dredge up basic radio discipline stuff from the Cold War, although I suspect much of what we learned in Afghanistan will not be applicable.


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## toughenough (21 Apr 2015)

NationalPost said:
			
		

> The Ukrainians, like the Afghans, have put few resources into training or equipping their forces with new gear since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. They are badly in need of help in almost every area.


http://news.nationalpost.com/news/world/russian-infiltration-of-ukrainian-military-complicates-canadian-training-mission

91? Sounds like a lot of their kit will be newer than ours  >


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## vonGarvin (21 Apr 2015)

I'm  not sure which armies you belong to, but our doctrine and training is entirely applicable to the situation in Ukraine.  It's the hybrid war your dad told you about. There are conventional ops in Donbass, and the IED threat is ubiquitous. 
The level of training is mentioned in the release: EOD  and IED disposal. I highly doubt that they will be going there to teach basic section tactics.


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## Colin Parkinson (21 Apr 2015)

My dad was a medic in the  Air Force, on the west coast so his war was not like this.  I did not see in the video or the news article about focus only on IED and EOD, I will take your word for it. From my read, basic tactics, basic officer training, radio discipline is lacking at the lower end. The higher end lacks organizational, logistical planning and basic moral responsibility for the troops under their command.


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## The Bread Guy (21 Apr 2015)

A quick reminder from the PMO's info-machine:


> .... CAF members will be deployed on both a sustained and periodic basis depending on the type of training being conducted. *Their activities will include explosive ordnance disposal and improvised explosive device disposal training, military police training, medical training, flight safety training, and logistics system modernization training. Canada will also be providing individual and unit tactics training to Ukrainian National Guard personnel along with the United States* ....


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## The Bread Guy (24 Jun 2015)

The latest on Canada's training mission:


> It will be the middle of summer at the earliest before the Canadian military fields its military training mission to Ukraine, which is likely to play out against a backdrop of escalating violence in breakaway eastern regions.
> 
> Canadian soldiers will also hit the ground just as the Harper government prepares to do electoral battle on the campaign trail at home in advance of an Oct. 19 vote.
> 
> ...


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## kelsauce (24 Jun 2015)

I'd like this Jack Harris fella to know that most of us actually want to be doing something. You don't need to be concerned for us, we WANT to be deployed.


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## The Bread Guy (25 Jun 2015)

(Sorta) Reforger 2015?


> Canada will send 1,650 soldiers to Europe this fall to take part in NATO's largest military exercise since the end of the Cold War, Defence Minister Jason Kenney said Wednesday at a ministers' meeting at the alliance headquarters in Belgium.
> 
> (....)
> 
> Operation Trident Juncture, which is to be held between late September and early November in Spain, Portugal and Italy, will involve more than 25,000 troops. Canada's contribution of 1,650 troops will include air, sea and land elements as well as special forces, Kenney said ....


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## The Bread Guy (25 Jun 2015)

This, from Ukrainian media in Russian - Google English translation below:


> *Canada is ready to supply Ukraine lethal weapons, but it will not act alone - Defense Minister*
> 
> *Canada will create five specialized training missions for the Ukrainian military.*
> 
> ...


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## The Bread Guy (26 Jun 2015)

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> This, from Ukrainian media in Russian - Google English translation below:
> 
> 
> > *Canada is ready to supply Ukraine lethal weapons, but it will not act alone - Defense Minister*
> > (....)


Meanwhile, a different message to Canadian media ....


> Hinting at how close Canada has come to providing lethal aid to Ukraine in its war against Russian-backed separatists, Defence Minister Jason Kenney said Thursday that he recently ordered a military inventory to determine what weapons Canada could send to the Ukrainian army, if it chose to do so.
> 
> The answer that came back was: not much.
> 
> ...


Soooooo, which is it, then?


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## The Bread Guy (27 Jun 2015)

More of the latest out of UKR from Canada's defence minister:


> Defence Minister Jason Kenney visited Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) personnel in Ukraine today. The CAF personnel are observing Ukrainian forces receiving training in order to further refine the training package that Canadians will provide to the Ukrainian military starting later this summer.
> 
> Minister Kenney delivered remarks during a joint press conference with Ukrainian Defence Minister Colonel-General  Poltorak at the International Peacekeeping and Security Centre.  Minister Kenney  discussed Canada’s  support for Ukraine by sending Canadian Forces personnel to strengthen Ukraine’s capacity to defend its sovereignty.
> 
> ...



More from media:

_“Final legal and diplomatic hurdles being cleared for Ukraine mission, Jason Kenney says”_
_“Canada to start military exercises in Ukraine in autumn”_
_“Ukrainian defense minister says Canadian instructors to start training Ukrainian military servicemen in fall 2015″_
_“President of Ukraine, Defense Minister of Canada discuss defense cooperation”_
_“Ukrainian defence minister warns of Russian threat at meeting with Canadian counterpart”_ (w/video in English)


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## The Bread Guy (14 Sep 2015)

Off to work, then - this, via the UKR MoD Info-machine ....


> Monday, September 14. KHMELNYTSKYI OBLAST, UKRAINE — The Canadian instructors started training the Ukrainian EOD specialists. The event is organized in the framework of the Technical Agreement between the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine and Department of National Defence of the Canadian Armed Forces on military training in Ukraine.
> 
> “The Canadian instructors will share their experience and skills with their Ukrainian peers under the NATO standards,” Col. Volodymyr Rodikov, Chief of Mine Clearing Centre, stressed and added “Canada has been supporting Ukraine since the first days of the Russian aggression. We’re grateful for Canadian assistance. It is worth mentioning this training course is very practical for Canadian specialists as well. Our sergeants and officers will share their experience gained during the combat operations in the east of Ukraine.”
> 
> ...


More photos in linked article.

_- edited to add link - DOHHHHH!!!! - _


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## The Bread Guy (15 Sep 2015)

A bit more of an update via the UKR MoD Info-machine:


> The International Peacekeeping and Security Centre of Hetman Petro Sahaydachnyi Land Forces Academy hosted the official opening ceremony of the Joint Canadian-Ukrainian Training Course for Ukrainian servicemen.
> 
> “For the first time in the history of the Ukrainian Armed Forces we have this long-term training program for land forces. The Ukrainian future instructors will learn the combat experience of their Canadian peers,” Col. Ihor Slisarchuk, Chief of the Centre, stated.
> 
> Foreign instructors are representatives of different specializations.


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## PuckChaser (15 Sep 2015)

Did someone forget to tell the RCAF guy it was dress down Friday in Ukraine? He's the only one in DEU...


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## dimsum (15 Sep 2015)

PuckChaser said:
			
		

> Did someone forget to tell the RCAF guy it was dress down Friday in Ukraine? He's the only one in DEU...



Ha!  The first (and probably only) time the RCAF out-does the Army in random dress bits and bobs.


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## Sub_Guy (15 Sep 2015)

This picture is a good example of how good our Camo pattern is.   He blends in nicely with the landscaping.


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## dimsum (15 Sep 2015)

Dolphin_Hunter said:
			
		

> This picture is a good example of how good our Camo pattern is.   He blends in nicely with the landscaping.



Why is he giving a British-Army style open hand salute?  

Why is this the first thing that pops into my head as I see that photo?


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## George Wallace (15 Sep 2015)

Dimsum said:
			
		

> Why is he giving a British-Army style open hand salute?



He is an officer.  They are notorious for sloppy salutes.   >


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## The Bread Guy (15 Sep 2015)

Dimsum said:
			
		

> Why is he giving a British-Army style open hand salute?
> 
> Why is this the first thing that pops into my head as I see that photo?


You're not alone - that's one reason why I posted it  >



			
				Dolphin_Hunter said:
			
		

> This picture is a good example of how good our Camo pattern is.   He blends in nicely with the landscaping.


That's the other ....  ;D


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## MilEME09 (15 Sep 2015)

anyone notice that in that photo of everyone formed up, not one has a name tape on


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## The Bread Guy (15 Sep 2015)

MilEME09 said:
			
		

> anyone notice that in that photo of everyone formed up, not one has a name tape on


Except for what appears to be the boss.


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## McG (15 Sep 2015)

The guy with the bad salute and US Army style EOD patch also has a name.


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## The Bread Guy (8 Oct 2015)

A few photos from the Canadians training the Ukrainians in Lviv, courtesy of the UKR Info-machine (source, in Ukrainian)


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## The Bread Guy (9 Oct 2015)

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> A few photos from the Canadians training the Ukrainians in Lviv, courtesy of the UKR Info-machine (source, in Ukrainian)


And here's the Info-machine's official English version:


> The International Peacekeeping and Security Centre of the National Hetman Petro Sahaydachnyi Land Forces Academy hosts the joint Canadian-Ukrainian exercise.
> 
> The Ukrainian soldiers undergo training according to the Canadian standards. The qualified Canadian experts along with the instructors of the International Peacekeeping and Security Centre share their experience and knowledge with Ukrainian soldiers. Soldiers learn how to act on the battlefield, render first aid, identify and neutralize IED, enhance their skills, etc.
> 
> This training of ATO experience servicemen will last two months.


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## The Bread Guy (2 Nov 2015)

What some Canadian MP's are up to (via the UKR Info-machine) ....


> The Canadian instructors of military police give courses for representatives of the Ukrainian Law Enforcement Service.
> 
> “In Canada, we have military, federal and municipal policies co-existing together. Each police has a right to conduct a pre-trial investigation. The military police is the best in it,” Lt. Col. Martin Laflamme, Commander of Land Forces Military Police, Canadian Armed Forces of Ukraine, stressed.
> 
> ...


Attached photos also from the UKR Ministry of Defence.


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## The Bread Guy (2 Nov 2015)

MOAR Canadian help/instruction!  This, in Ukrainian, from the UKR MoD Info-machine - Google English translation below:


> *The representative of Canada launched the course "Management of defense resources" at the National Defence University of Ukraine*
> 4 hours ago | ID: 14935 | Views: 239
> 
> In the framework of international cooperation between Ukraine and Canada for students, researchers and teaching staff National University of Defense of Ukraine began a five-day course "Management of defense resources."
> ...


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## The Bread Guy (12 Nov 2015)

How the troops spent Remembrance Day in Ukraine (with UKR's Deputy Minister of Defence - a politician, not a bureaucrat like DM's are here - dropping by) - Google English translation of this UKR MoD piece in Ukrainian:


> *The International Peacekeeping and Security Centre Canadian military conducted a Memorial Day ceremony for the fallen heroes*
> Yesterday at 16:23 | ID: 15228 | Views: 408
> 
> Today, 11 November, during his working visit to Lviv, Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine on European Integration Igor Dolgov took part in the celebration of the Day in memory of the fallen heroes of the Canadian International Peacekeeping and Security National Army Academy named after hetman Sagaydachnogo.
> ...


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## Humphrey Bogart (13 Nov 2015)

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> MOAR Canadian help/instruction!  This, in Ukrainian, from the UKR MoD Info-machine - Google English translation below:



Defence Management!  We should be able to provide the Ukrainians with plenty of examples of WHAT NOT TO DO!


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## The Bread Guy (13 Nov 2015)

Humphrey Bogart said:
			
		

> Defence Management!  We should be able to provide the Ukrainians with plenty of examples of WHAT NOT TO DO!


We could serve as a good "Before"?


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## The Bread Guy (29 Nov 2015)

Some engineering help from Canada - this from the UKR Info-machine (photos attached) ....


> Saturday, November 28. KAMIANETS-PODILSKYI – The Demining Centre of the Armed Forces of Ukraine hosted an awarding ceremony of Ukrainian EOD specialists who graduated from special course conducted by the Canadian experts. During this ceremony Mr. Roman Vashchuk, Ambassador of Canada to Ukraine, passed the demining equipment to the Ukrainian servicemen. “Today, we do not give a weapon, we give the equipment for ‘disarmament’,” Mr. Roman Vashchuk stressed. “These are safety facilities for civil population and servicemen. It is a material manifestation of our friendship, our solidarity with the Ukrainian people. Col. Serhiy Zubarevskyi, Acting Chief of the Centre, on behalf of the Minister of Defence of Ukraine and the Chief of General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, thanked the Ambassador of Canada for support and equipment provided, “the Canadian people show us their support in our struggle for existence, demonstrate their strong stance for democracy”. The ceremony participants observed a minute of silence for the Holodomor victims. Canada passed three TALON systems, fifteen EOD9 suits, and three telescopic manipulators. The ATO troops will receive this equipment soon.


More from Global Affairs Canada's Info-machine:


> The Honourable Stéphane Dion, Minister of Foreign Affairs, (on 28 Nov) announced that explosive ordnance disposal equipment has been transferred to the Ukrainian Armed Forces in western Ukraine. This non-lethal equipment ‎will enable the Ukrainian Armed Forces to safely dispose of unexploded ammunition, such as artillery shells, thereby contributing to the safety and security of Ukrainians living in the affected regions.
> 
> This explosive ordnance disposal equipment has been provided by Global Affairs Canada and will be used during training offered by Canadian Armed Forces experts as part of Operation UNIFIER. A joint initiative by Canada’s Department of National Defence and Global Affairs Canada, Operation UNIFIER supports Ukraine’s efforts to maintain its security, stability and territorial integrity.
> 
> ...


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## The Bread Guy (4 Jan 2016)

More on Canadians' work in Ukraine, from the UKR MoD Info-machine:


> Canadian military instructors handed NATO certificates to Ukrainian sappers upon completion of the Canadian training course for disposal and countering to improvised explosive devices.
> 
> On the solemn presentation held at the Armed Forces of Ukraine Mine Clearing Center, head of the Center Colonel Vladimir Rodikov congratulated Ukrainian and Canadian soldiers.
> 
> ...


Photos courtesy of the UKR MoD.


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## The Bread Guy (13 Jan 2016)

... according to the UKR MoD Info-machine:


> Officers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Mine Clearance Center have held a first meeting with a new rotation of Canadian military instructors, which arrived to Ukraine in order to teach Ukrainian specialists engineer business.
> 
> During the meeting, the Centre Chief Colonel Vladimir Rodikov thanked the Canadian colleagues who had fulfilled their mission for cooperation, good organization of training process and deep mutual understanding.
> 
> ...


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## The Bread Guy (17 Jan 2016)

This from the CAF Info-machine:


> Today, Lieutenant-Colonel Tim Arsenault assumed command of Joint Task Force-Ukraine (JTF-U) from Lieutenant-Colonel Jason Guiney during a ceremony which took place at the International Peacekeeping and Security Centre in Starychi, Ukraine, as part of Operation UNIFIER, Canada’s military training mission in Ukraine.
> 
> As commander of JTF-U, Lieutenant-Colonel Tim Arsenault commands approximately 200 Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) personnel. JTF-U includes soldiers conducting training with the Ukrainian Armed Forces in areas such as Small Team training, Counter Improvised Explosive Device training, military police training and medical training ...


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## The Bread Guy (15 Mar 2016)

More UKR troops trained in counter-IED by Canadians - original in Ukrainian from the UKR Info-machine, Google English translation:


> *In c. Kamenets six months Canadian military instructors prepared according to NATO standards 70 Ukrainian engineers*
> 
> Today, March 14, at the Centre de-mining of the Main Directorate of Operational Support of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Kamenetz-Podolsk, hosted another edition of Canadian instructors Ukrainian servicemen who have completed a course of detection, elimination (neutralization) improvised explosive devices.
> 
> ...


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## The Bread Guy (16 Mar 2016)

1)  Lotsa UKR MoD Info-machine coverage of defence minister Sajjan's visit - some Info-machine pix attached ...

_“Defense Ministers of Ukraine and Canada meet in Lviv region”_
_“Minister of National Defence of Canada satisfied with cooperation with Armed Forces of Ukraine”_
_“ “Your reform is a move forward, they go good and fast, and this is noticeable,” Minister of National Defence of Canada”_
_“Stepan Poltorak: “I’m confident in further fruitful cooperation between Ukraine and Canada in defense and industrial areas” ”_

2)  Foreign minister Dion's statement on the anniversary of the "little green men" taking over Crimea:


> “This month marks the second anniversary of Russia’s invasion and illegal annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula.
> 
> “Russian occupation and aggression has led to human rights violations, including unlawful seizure of property, harassment and restrictions on freedom of speech and assembly. Self-proclaimed ‘authorities’ use force and intimidation to foster a climate of intolerance where residents who express views contrary to those of Russia face discrimination and persecution.
> 
> ...


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## slayer/raptor (19 Apr 2016)

Hello, does anyone know what the troops on OP UNIFIER in Ukraine will receive for a medal? I would assume the SSM NATO similar to the guys on OP REASSURANCE?


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## The Bread Guy (24 Apr 2016)

From the UKR Info-machine (in Ukrainian, and in Google English):


> *With the support of Canadian partners to train military engineers in Khmelnitsky region opened a modern form of combating improvised explosive devices*
> 
> April 22 at the territory of the Training Center complex operational demining of the Main Directorate of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Kamenetz-Podolsk in Khmelnitsky region, with the participation of Ukrainian and Canadian military training class was opened for training of detection, elimination (neutralization) improvised explosive devices.
> 
> ...


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## MMSS (4 May 2016)

released 25 April:


UNCLAS CANFORGEN 073/16 CMP 037/16
SIC WAC
SUBJECT: RECOGNITION - OPS REASSURANCE AND UNIFIER BILINGUAL MESSAGE/MESSAGE BILINGUE
REFS.: A. CANFORGEN 118/15 CMP 054/15 301812Z JUN 15, PARA 1.F.
B. FRAG O 001 TO CDS DIRECTIVE - OP REASSURANCE, 26 FEB 16 1. AT REF B, THE CDS DIRECTED THE EXPLORATION OF AN ALTERNATIVE OPTION TO RECOGNIZE THOSE WHO SERVE ON THE TWO OPERATIONS IN RELATION TO EASTERN EUROPE, NAMELY OPERATION REASSURANCE AND OPERATION UNIFIER 2. THE ALTERNATIVE FORM OF RECOGNITION WOULD REPLACE THE NATO BAR TO THE SPECIAL SERVICE MEDAL (SSM-NATO) ANNOUNCED AT REFERENCE A WHICH WAS LIMITED TO THE NATO-LED ELEMENTS OF OPERATION REASSURANCE 3. THE MATTER WILL BE CONSIDERED AT THE CF HONOURS POLICY COMMITTEE AND THE OUTCOME PRESENTED AT AFC IN THE NEAR FUTURE 4. ALL APPLICATIONS MADE FOR THE SSM-NATO BASED ON OP REASSURANCE SVC HAVE BEEN PUT ON HOLD PENDING THE OUTCOME OF THE REVIEW. NO NEW APPLICATION BASED ON THIS SVC WILL BE ACCEPTED UNTIL THE OUTCOME OF THE REVIEW IS ANNOUNCED 5. FOLLOWING THE RESULT OF THE REVIEW, UNITS MAY HAVE TO MAKE NEW APPLICATION FOR THEIR ELIGIBLE MBRS. IT IS THEREFORE IMPORTANT TO KEEP ACCURATE AND COMPLETE RECORDS OF ALL PERS WHO DEPLOY TO PARTICIPATE IN OR PROVIDE DIRECT SUPPORT TO THE SUBJ OPS TO FACILITATE APPLICATIONS AND ELIGIBILITY DETERMINATION


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## The Bread Guy (14 May 2016)

UKR media interview w/Op UNIFIER's boss (text also attached in case link doesn't work), shared under the Fair Dealing provisions of the _Copyright Act (R.S.C., 1985, c. C-42)_ ...


> *Lieutenant-Colonel Tim Arsenault
> The Joint Task Force-Ukraine Commander of Operation UNIFIER, Canada’s training mission in Ukraine*
> 07.05.2016 14:06
> 
> ...


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## The Bread Guy (16 Jun 2016)

Canada's Army boss drops by - this, from the UKR MoD Info-machine (also here if previous link doesn't work):


> The Canadian military delegation led by Lt. Gen. M. Hainse, Commander of Canadian Army, visited the International Peacekeeping and Security Centre of the National Land Forces Academy.
> 
> During a joint briefing, Lt. Gen. Pavlo Tkachuk, Chief of National Land Forces Academy, told about the prospects of the Centre development. He expressed his gratitude to Lt. Gen. M. Hainse and the Canadian contingent for their contribution to professional training of the Ukrainian servicemen and comprehensive support to Ukraine.
> 
> ...


Info-machine photos also attached.


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## Journeyman (16 Jun 2016)

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Canada's Army boss .....Info-machine photos also attached.









Ooohh.....TWO sleeves worth of badges on his CADPAT.  

Staff effort and defence spending at its finest.     :not-again:


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## Bird_Gunner45 (17 Jun 2016)

Journeyman said:
			
		

> Ooohh.....TWO sleeves worth of badges on his CADPAT.
> 
> Staff effort and defence spending at its finest.     :not-again:



It does answer everyone's questions of what is allowed to be attached to the sleeves...

I'm more surprised that they were able to find that many 5 CMBG guys without beards.....


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## dimsum (17 Jun 2016)

Bird_Gunner45 said:
			
		

> It does answer everyone's questions of what is allowed to be attached to the sleeves...
> 
> I'm more surprised that they were able to find that many 5 CMBG guys without beards.....



Re:  patches, what I don't get is the Army one on his lower right.  Does one really need a patch to show that they're in the Army, which isn't already covered by the shirt colour, crossed swords on the nametag, or the Div patch above it?


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## Bzzliteyr (17 Jun 2016)

Dimsum said:
			
		

> Re:  patches, what I don't get is the Army one on his lower right.  Does one really need a patch to show that they're in the Army, which isn't already covered by the shirt colour, crossed swords on the nametag, or the Div patch above it?



YOU'RE NOT THE BOSS OF HIM!!


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## MilEME09 (17 Jun 2016)

I am going to save this picture and wear as many patches as I can now, I mean if a Lt. General can do it, why can't I? (insert raging RSM here)


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## The Bread Guy (17 Jun 2016)

MilEME09 said:
			
		

> I am going to save this picture and wear as many patches as I can now, I mean if a Lt. General can do it, why can't I? (insert raging RSM here)


My work here is done ...


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## PuckChaser (17 Jun 2016)

Dimsum said:
			
		

> Re:  patches, what I don't get is the Army one on his lower right.  Does one really need a patch to show that they're in the Army, which isn't already covered by the shirt colour, crossed swords on the nametag, or the Div patch above it?


That's supposed to be a Brigade patch, but since he's CCA, he wore a Canadian Army patch. Heaven forbid he leave that space empty


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## Rheostatic (17 Jun 2016)

PuckChaser said:
			
		

> That's supposed to be a Brigade patch, but since he's CCA, he wore a Canadian Army patch. Heaven forbid he leave that space empty


Look closely, there's a big Army patch below that.


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## dimsum (17 Jun 2016)

PuckChaser said:
			
		

> That's supposed to be a Brigade patch, but since he's CCA, he wore a Canadian Army patch. Heaven forbid he leave that space empty


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## Colin Parkinson (17 Jun 2016)

God all those patches just looks goofy


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## jollyjacktar (17 Jun 2016)

I'm just waiting to see the Army come out with a sash like the Boy Scouts wear to fit all these patches on.   :nod:


----------



## Journeyman (17 Jun 2016)

jollyjacktar said:
			
		

> I'm just waiting to see the Army come out with a sash like the Boy Scouts wear to fit all these patches on.   :nod:


   :facepalm:   Now you've done it.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart (17 Jun 2016)

I wouldn't really care about the badges If they weren't so hideous looking.  The Brits wear jump wings and commando badges on their uniforms but the badges look a lot better.


----------



## dimsum (17 Jun 2016)

jollyjacktar said:
			
		

> I'm just waiting to see the Army come out with a sash like the Boy Scouts wear to fit all these patches on.   :nod:



I'd vote for this one   >


----------



## Journeyman (17 Jun 2016)

Dimsum said:
			
		

> I'd vote for this one   >


No doubt.


----------



## The Bread Guy (8 Jul 2016)

From the UKR MoD Info-machine:


> The Canadian trainers issued NATO certificates to 14 Ukrainian servicemen graduated from the basic counter-IED training course. Now these servicemen are certified trainers.
> 
> According to the Canadian party, this course was organized to increase the professional level of the Ukrainian demining specialists.
> 
> Totally, the Canadian trainers have already trained 103 Ukrainian specialists under the NATO standards since September 2015.


----------



## The Bread Guy (11 Jul 2016)

Sooooooooooo, which is it going to be, then?

_"Poroshenko stands for extension of Canadian military instructors' stay in Ukraine"_ -- _"Trudeau won't commit to extend Ukraine training mission beyond 2017"_
_"NATO summit ends with pledge of more Canadian trainers for Iraq"_
op:


----------



## The Bread Guy (22 Jul 2016)

From the UKR MoD Info-machine:  UKR troops getting training from Cdn medics ...


> Thursday, July 21. KYIV — The Canadian medical instructors are delivering a training course for about 20 Ukrainian military candidates, who will become medical instructors after their graduation.
> 
> “This is the second course. We used to deliver it for soldiers and trained them to render medical care under fire. Then we decided to train instructors,” Mr Gualtier, Chief Course Instructor, told.
> 
> ...


... and MP's:


> A group of the Ukrainian servicemen has been undergoing two-week training course delivered by the Canadian Military Police instructors. This course is conducted in the framework of agreements between Main Directorate of the Ukraine’s Military Law Enforcement Service and Defence Attaché Office at the Embassy of Canada to Ukraine.
> 
> “This is a Course for servicemen of Military Law Enforcement Service on pre-trial investigation. We teach our students to keep a diary, then to plan actions at the scene. At the end, we train them how to conduct interviews with witnesses and suspects,” Maj. Paul Mellema, Course Manager, told.
> 
> Currently, 20 students are undergoing this training delivered by the qualified and experienced Canadian instructors. The graduates will pass exams and receive certificates.


Some pix attached - note the UKR info-machine seems to be leaving imagery of Cdn tps out of the latest batch of pix.


----------



## dimsum (22 Jul 2016)

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> From the UKR MoD Info-machine:  UKR troops getting training from Cdn medics ...... and MP's:Some pix attached - note the UKR info-machine seems to be leaving imagery of Cdn tps out of the latest batch of pix.



Well aren't they a happy bunch.


----------



## The Bread Guy (2 Aug 2016)

From the UKR Info-machine (original in Ukraininan - Google English below):


> *Instructors Military Police Army Forces soldiers teach Canadian Forces GSP Ukraine*
> 
> In Kiev, the opening ceremony of the next course "use of force". Courses that are conducted by instructors from the Military Police of the Land Forces of the Armed Forces of Canada held for military personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
> 
> ...



Edited to add:  some new faces inbound ...


> Soldiers from Edmonton’s 3rd Canadian Division are readying for deployment to Ukraine.
> 
> About 30 military personnel — including some from CFB Shilo, Man. — will fly out of Edmonton International Airport on Thursday as part of Operation UNIFIER, a joint support mission between United States, Canada and the United Kingdom.
> 
> This week’s deployment is part of an ongoing federal government commitment announced in 2015 for around 200 Canadian Armed Forces members in Ukraine until March 31, 2017 ...


----------



## The Bread Guy (3 Aug 2016)

Demining training, done - more from the UKR MoD Info-machine (in Ukrainian - in Google English):


> *Canadian military engineers of the second rotation completed their seven-month mission at the Center for Demining*
> 
> In Kamenetz-Podolsk military Demining Center of the Main Directorate of Operational Support Forces of Ukraine said goodbye to the staff of the Joint Task Force of the Armed Forces of Canada, which under the second rotation from January to August this year taught Ukrainian counterparts to counter improvised explosive devices by the standards NATO.
> 
> ...


Some UKR Info-machine pix attached.


----------



## The Bread Guy (9 Aug 2016)

An American media piece about what they're going through training Ukrainians - a few highlights shared ...


> ... conventional weapons are only part of the enemy's arsenal.
> 
> Danilo is particularly concerned with enemy propaganda, which has made liberating towns during his previous deployments that much more difficult. His countrymen, who have only been exposed to pro-Russian TV for months, now require convincing that defeating the separatists represents a victory.
> 
> The pro-Russian forces, believed to be backed by Moscow directly, have perfected other 21st century warfighting techniques that make their infantry movements that much more effective. Troops here say they are harassed with "reverse text messages," prompting them to lay down their arms and quit. Their enemy has also integrated drones into its fighting formations, using them to identify targets like Danilo and his men, and firing artillery much more accurately ...





> ... Ukraine's soldiers now mirror their Western counterparts who teach, for example, that all soldiers require first-aid training, not just the medics, to improve their chances of surviving a firefight. The trainers here also try to instill authority in these front-line troops, empowering experienced sergeants and young officers to take command and adapt to problems, not simply accept the orders of faraway generals as Soviet tradition dictated.
> 
> The change is tough, and not always accepted. Four out of 5 soldiers here have some sort of combat experience, and some, such as the Ukrainian army airborne troops in the last class of trainees, believe their elite status doesn't require further instruction from Western teachers. Others see the need for reforming their fighting doctrine, particularly younger troops who did not grow up during the height of Soviet control of Ukraine.
> 
> U.S. Army instructors on this day focus on new techniques to teach new maneuvers that won't make Ukrainian formations as vulnerable to the kinds of Russian-style attacks they've faced since fighting began in 2014. They're learning not to bunch up behind the armored fighting vehicle their officers command when taking enemy fire, but instead to spread out and employ coordinated maneuvers to cover one another as they move closer to the enemy targets and destroy them ...





> ... The 25-year army veteran was also quick to point out how much he and his comrades were able to teach the Americans, who haven't focused on tank warfare following 15 years of counterinsurgency fights in the Middle East. Balkovnic also boasts his army is the only one that has fought the Russians on the ground in decades, and he's offered insights to his American counterparts on the kind of fighting he's experienced – namely drone and electronic warfare ...


----------



## The Bread Guy (9 Aug 2016)

Welcome to the new boss!


> The new commander of Joint Task Force-Ukraine (JTF-U), Lieutenant-Colonel Wayne Niven, assumed command from Lieutenant-Colonel Tim Arsenault today during a ceremony at the International Peacekeeping and Security Centre in Starychi, Ukraine, as part of Operation UNIFIER, Canada’s military training mission in Ukraine.
> 
> As commander of JTF-U, Lieutenant-Colonel Niven commands approximately 200 Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) personnel with the mission to conduct training with the Ukrainian Armed Forces in areas such as Small Team training, which consists of individual weapons training; marksmanship; communication; survival; and ethics training ...


----------



## Cloud Cover (9 Aug 2016)

Nope! there is a Canadian medic standing on the far right, using the Ukraine medic ( :nod as cover.


----------



## Colin Parkinson (10 Aug 2016)

I have to wonder from the political spectrum if the Canadian-Ukrainian connection is far less important to the Liberals than it was to to the CPC. As I recall most of the significant population of Ukrainian descendants is out west. If so I wonder how that will factor into support for this mission?


----------



## The Bread Guy (10 Aug 2016)

Colin P said:
			
		

> I have to wonder from the political spectrum if the Canadian-Ukrainian connection is far less important to the Liberals than it was to to the CPC. As I recall most of the significant population of Ukrainian descendants is out west. If so I wonder how that will factor into support for this mission?


Good question.  The Conservative link may have also been, in part, an anti-Communist affinity.  My spidey sense says the Ukrainian vote/lobby out west is still not insignificant - and still mostly anti-Soviet (now, anti-Russian).  Prince Valiant also has at least one person with a strong UKR history in Cabinet.


----------



## The Bread Guy (12 Sep 2016)

This from the UKR MoD Info-machine:


> In Lviv Canadian Royal Air Force experts held talks with the Ukrainian party concerning training of Ukraine’s Air Force personnel in flight safety. They will give two courses.
> 
> The expectations of the Ukrainian military from this course are to learn new ICAO principles and methods for flight safety.
> 
> In its turn, the Canadian party expressed hope to develop fruitful cooperation with Ukraine.


Interesting the civvies on (what I'm guessing are) the Canadians.


----------



## Sub_Guy (12 Sep 2016)

Is that Putin's brother?


----------



## The Bread Guy (13 Sep 2016)

More on the CF medics @ work in UKR, via the CAF Info-machine ...


> Barely unpacked, Joint Task Force-Ukraine medical staff began mentoring Ukrainian instructors in mid-August as they conducted their first Combat First Aid (CFA) course. The course was entirely taught by the Ukrainian Armed Forces instructors, who were  well-trained by the outgoing Operation UNIFIER medical personnel.
> 
> After a busy handover with the out-going medical team, the newly arrived medical staff from 1 Field Ambulance at Canadian Forces Base Edmonton moved forward with an open mind.
> 
> ...


Photo credit for attached pix:  Joint Task Force Ukraine


----------



## The Bread Guy (19 Sep 2016)

It appears the anti-UKR info-machine is shooting out a bit more Canadian content ...

9 Sept 2016:  _"*11 Canadian Mercenaries Go Home in Bodybags After “Master Class” in Donbass* -- A master-class of “maple leaves” in the fight against militias ended in disaster. A group of at least 20 people (three reconnaissance groups) from the Canadian forces CANSOFCOM tried to attack the militia positions in the area of the Ukrainian punisher operation.  It ended in disaster for them. The operation was under development without the involvement of the Ukrainian fighters for the demonstration of a “master-class of fighting against terrorists”.  Those responsible were from the Canadian Security Intelligence Service. The military attache of Canada in Ukraine Colonel Ron Ubbens was in charge of the matter. All this, of course, is unofficial ..."_ - original article in Russian here
19 Sept 2016:  _"*Canadian Instructors Train UAF Fighters for Urban Combat in Donbass* -- LPR reconnaissance has found that instructors from Canada are deployed with Ukrainian servicemen near the contact line in Donbass. This was said by the official representative of the LPR militia Andrey Marochko. According to him, the Canadian military work with the Kiev Armed Forces in combat tactics in an urban environment.  “According to our intelligence, in the area of the settlement Schastia, the 2nd division of the 28th battalion Guard Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces are being trained for combat in an urban environment under the leadership of Canadian instructors,” said Marochko ..."_ - original article in Russian here


----------



## cavalryman (19 Sep 2016)

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> It appears the anti-UKR info-machine is shooting out a bit more Canadian content ...
> 
> 9 Sept 2016:  _"*11 Canadian Mercenaries Go Home in Bodybags After “Master Class” in Donbass* -- A master-class of “maple leaves” in the fight against militias ended in disaster. A group of at least 20 people (three reconnaissance groups) from the Canadian forces CANSOFCOM tried to attack the militia positions in the area of the Ukrainian punisher operation.  It ended in disaster for them. The operation was under development without the involvement of the Ukrainian fighters for the demonstration of a “master-class of fighting against terrorists”.  Those responsible were from the Canadian Security Intelligence Service. The military attache of Canada in Ukraine Colonel Ron Ubbens was in charge of the matter. All this, of course, is unofficial ..."_ - original article in Russian here
> 19 Sept 2016:  _"*Canadian Instructors Train UAF Fighters for Urban Combat in Donbass* -- LPR reconnaissance has found that instructors from Canada are deployed with Ukrainian servicemen near the contact line in Donbass. This was said by the official representative of the LPR militia Andrey Marochko. According to him, the Canadian military work with the Kiev Armed Forces in combat tactics in an urban environment.  “According to our intelligence, in the area of the settlement Schastia, the 2nd division of the 28th battalion Guard Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces are being trained for combat in an urban environment under the leadership of Canadian instructors,” said Marochko ..."_ - original article in Russian here



Hey, I'm glad to see Baghdad Bob got himself a new gig.  Always liked the guy's over the top shtick.


----------



## The Bread Guy (20 Sep 2016)

cavalryman said:
			
		

> Hey, I'm glad to see Baghdad Bob got himself a new gig.  Always liked the guy's over the top shtick.


</Boris Badinov accent>I am being here all week -- try the perogies ...</Boris Badinov accent>


----------



## The Bread Guy (8 Oct 2016)

Some of the latest from the UKR military info-machine ...


> *Canadian instructors conduct First Educational Methodological Course ‘Training of Junior Leaders’ at Demining Centre*
> 
> The Canadian instructors conducted the First Educational Methodological Course ‘Training of Junior Leaders’ for non-commissioned officers at the Demining Centre, Kamianets-Podilskyi.
> 
> ...


More pix viewable as part of the linked article.


----------



## The Bread Guy (13 Oct 2016)

More from the UKR Info-machine, this time on Canadians continuing to help train MP's and Canadians helping teach EOD folk.


----------



## The Bread Guy (31 Oct 2016)

Not _strictly_ part of op UNIFIER, but word of a few Canadians & allies getting about UKR -- from the UKR General Staff's FB page (Google translated from Ukrainian)...


> The inspection team from Canada, the Kingdom of Denmark and the Netherlands under the chairmanship of Lieutenant Colonel Francois Kasso*** met with the command of the 93-th separate Guards Mechanized Brigade Kharkiv ...


A few photos ...













*** - Likely the result of a transliteration/misspelling of LCOL Casault's last name (Arty guy, less-than-ideal beret, middle photo), from Canada's SJS Arms Control Verification folks - more on some of their previous work here and here.


----------



## MilEME09 (31 Oct 2016)

Looks like someone needs to work on forming his beret


----------



## The Bread Guy (31 Oct 2016)

MilEME09 said:
			
		

> Looks like someone needs to work on forming his beret


I was being polite when I called it less-than-ideal  ;D


----------



## The Bread Guy (1 Nov 2016)

An update from the CAF Info-machine:


> A Canadian Army officer says efforts to bring the Armed Forces of Ukraine up to speed on NATO military policing practices as part of Operation UNIFIER (Op UNIFIER) have been a great success.
> 
> Op UNIFIER is the name of Canada’s contribution to an ongoing multinational training mission that is building capacity in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Canadian troops have been on the ground there since the summer of 2015 as Joint Task Force-Ukraine, sharing their expertise in a wide range of soldiering skills.
> 
> ...


----------



## The Bread Guy (7 Nov 2016)

From the UKR MoD Info-machine ...


> *Maple Arch 2016 kicks off in Ukraine*
> 
> The International Peacekeeping and Security Centre hosted an opening ceremony of Maple Arch 2016 exercise. Ukraine, Poland, Lithuania, and Canada delegated more than 200 soldiers for participation in it.
> 
> ...


----------



## The Bread Guy (8 Nov 2016)

And now, the CAF Info-machine's version of the Maple Arch 2016 announcement ...


> The opening ceremony for Exercise MAPLE ARCH 16 (MA16) was held today at the International Peacekeeping and Security Center (IPSC) in YAVORIV, located near LVIV, Ukraine.  Approximately 200 military personnel from Canada, Ukraine, Poland, and Lithuania gathered on the parade square to mark the beginning of the exercise as their national flags were raised to the sound of their countries’ national anthems.
> 
> The NATO’s Partnership for Peace (PfP) exercise MAPLE ARCH (MA) is a series of annual joint exercises that have been traditionally hosted on a rotational basis between Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine under NATO’s PfP program.
> 
> ...


A few more pix the UKR Info-machine missed attached as well (source).


----------



## The Bread Guy (10 Nov 2016)

Mo' on Maple Arch via the UKR Info-machine ...


> *Maple Arch 2016: Exercise participants begin planning and decision-making process*
> 
> In the framework of the Maple Arch 2016 Ukrainian, Polish, and Lithuanian servicemen led by Canadian instructors begin planning and decision-making process.
> 
> ...


----------



## The Bread Guy (15 Nov 2016)

Remembrance Day in Ukraine, via the Pentagon Info-machine (photo credit: Spc. John Onuoha, U.S. 2nd Brigade Combat Team, 3rd Infantry Division Public Affairs) ...

Bottom photo (3 saluting) caption:  


> _"YAVORIV, Ukraine - Leaders of the allied nations with the Joint Multinational Training Group-Ukraine, salute fallen Soldiers during Canadian Remembrance Day ceremony here, November 11, 2016. From left to right are Col. Nick Ducich, commander of JMTG-U, Polish Lt. Col. Dariusz Czekaj, Lithuanian Lt. Col. Eligijus Senulis. Remembrance Day is a memorial day observed by the Commonwealth of Nations member states since the end of the First World War to remember the members of their armed forces who have died in the line of duty. JMTG-U focuses on building a sustainable and enduring training capacity and capability within the Ukrainian land forces."_


----------



## The Bread Guy (18 Nov 2016)

From the UKR Info-machine (Google Translate version quoted, original in Ukrainian here) - highlights mine:


> *In Lviv completed international military exercises "Maple Arch 2016"*
> 
> Today, on November 18 in Lviv, at the International Peacekeeping and Security Centre completed a multinational command post exercise "Maple Arch 2016". Maneuvers, which lasted about two weeks, took place under the mentoring of Canadian instructors with the participation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Lithuania and Poland.
> 
> ...


Photos from the Info-machine attached.


----------



## George Wallace (19 Nov 2016)

http://news.gc.ca/web/article-en.do?mthd=index&crtr.page=1&nid=1156899









> News Release - Successful Conclusion of NATO Partnership for Peace Exercise MAPLE ARCH 16
> 
> November 18, 2016 – Ottawa – National Defence / Canadian Armed Forces
> 
> ...


----------



## The Bread Guy (22 Dec 2016)

CDS drops by (via UKR MoD info-machine)...


> Chief of Defence Staff of Canada Colonel General Jonathan Vance arrived to Ukraine with official visit to inspect the training mission (JMTG-U) conducted at the International Peacekeeping and Security Centre in Lviv oblast.
> 
> He discussed with the Ukrainian officials the prospects of the Canadian-Ukrainian defence cooperation.
> 
> ...


----------



## Eye In The Sky (22 Dec 2016)

Nice boots.


----------



## Oldgateboatdriver (22 Dec 2016)

Actually EITS, the first thing that popped in my mind was "At least, the UKR generals know how to dress properly for international GO's meetings." 

Sorry! It's my Navy bias showing, I know, but ... it's a classroom/base setting and you are meeting with your foreign equivalent. Put a friggin suit on, man. \RANT OFF


----------



## The Bread Guy (31 Dec 2016)

According to this story (Ukrainian media, in Russian), MP James Bezan is quoted saying, _"We need to extend the operation Unifier, to 200 instructors and more trained Ukrainian military and logistical support provided to them."_

Some English-language coverage of his comments (looking like they were made to a Ukrainian media correspondent) ...

_*"The current Government of Canada may terminate some programs of support for Ukraine in order not to irritate Russia ..."*_
_*"Canada should provide financial support to Kyiv in order to help Ukraine in its confrontation with Russia ..."*_


----------



## Kirkhill (14 Jan 2017)

1 CER standing with the Lithuanians to repel Putin's Hordes.  If only they had been in the Ardennes 78 years ago.

Any of you know a Sgt Tyler Doyle? (Don't answer that.)



http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/753554/NATO-Putin-Russia-tanks-armoured-troops-eastern-Europe-war-west



> "NATO releases guide of how to stop a TANK as US military gears up for war against Putin
> 
> NATO has released a DIY video of how to stop a tank as Eastern Europe welcomes troops and an armoured brigade in a bid to quell Russian aggression.
> 
> ...


----------



## The Bread Guy (15 Jan 2017)

Good question ...


> Ukraine's envoy says his government is growing concerned about whether Canada will continue its military support to help the country deter Russian aggression.
> 
> The mission is set to expire at the end of March.
> 
> ...


From a few weeks back (6 Dec 2016) ...


> The Liberal government signalled to its allies that it is prepared to extend Canada's military training mission in Ukraine, CBC News has learned.
> 
> A series of senior Ukrainian government officials visited Ottawa over the last few weeks, warning of the dangers of warming frosty relations with Russia.
> 
> ...


op:


----------



## beachdown (16 Jan 2017)

Ahahaha...you cheeky sod  ;D


			
				Eye In The Sky said:
			
		

> Nice boots.


----------



## Halifax Tar (17 Jan 2017)

Just saw this:

UNCLAS 
CANFORGEN CMP 004/17
SECTION 1 OF 2
SUBJ: RECOGNITION FOR OPERATION REASSURANCE AND OPERATION UNIFIER
REFS: A. CANFORGEN 073/16 CMP 076/16 251912Z APR 16
B. CANFORGEN 003/09 CMP 002/09 081950Z JAN 09
C. CANFORGEN 096/09 CMP 042/09 201315Z MAY 09
1. FURTHER TO REF A, AFC HAS DETERMINED THAT THE USE OF THE EXISTING 
NATO AND EXPEDTION BARS TO THE SPECIAL SERVICE MEDAL IS THE MOST 
APPROPRIATE AND TIMELY METHOD TO RECOGNIZE SERVICE WITH OPS 
REASSURANCE AND UNIFIER RESPECTIVELY. HOWEVER, THE CDS HAS DIRECTED 
THE CF HONOURS POLICY COMMITTEE TO CONDUCT A HOLISTIC REVIEW OF THE 
SERVICE RECOGNITION FRAMEWORK AND INTENDS TO RECOMMEND TO THE 
GOVERNMENT AUTHORITIES THAT THE TIME CRITERIA FOR CERTAIN MEDALS BE 
AMENDED IN DUE COURSE
2. CONSEQUENTLY, AFC HAS APPROVED THE ADDITION OF THE FOL SERVICE TO 
THE ELIGIBILITY LISTS FOR CERTAIN CAMPAIGN AND SERVICE MEDALS, AS 



PAGE 2 RCCLHBF2018 UNCLAS CANFORGEN
FOLLOWS:
A. SPECIAL SERVICE MEDAL-NATO (SSM-NATO):

(1) SERVICE OF CAF MEMBERS WHO DEPLOYED TO CAMPIA TURZII, ROMANIA, 
LITHUANIA AND SPANGDAHLEM AIRBASE IN GERMANY AS PART OF THE AIR TASK 
FORCE (ATF), INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO THE NATO BALTIC AIR PATROL 
(BAP), SINCE 29 APRIL 2014 (OP REASSURANCE). NO MULTIPLYING FACTOR

(2) SERVICE OF CAF MEMBERS WHO DEPLOYED TO EASTERN AND CENTRAL 
EUROPE AS PART OF THE LAND TASK FORCE (LTF), SINCE 29 APRIL 2014 (OP 
REASSURANCE). NO MULTIPLYING FACTOR

(3) SERVICE OF CAF MEMBERS WHO SERVED ONBOARD HMC SHIPS IN THE 
MEDITERRANEAN AND BLACK SEAS UNDER NATO SNMG2, SINCE 29 APRIL 2014 
(OP REASSURANCE), PROVIDED THE SERVICE IS NOT COUNTED TOWARDS A NATO 
MEDAL. NO MULTIPLYING FACTOR. ONLY TIME SPENT UNDER NATO COMMAND IS 
ELIGIBLE - TRANSIT TIME DOES NOT COUNT. SERVICE UNDER NATO OPS 
ACTIVE ENDEAVOUR AND SEA GUARDIAN COUNTS TOWARDS THE APPROPRIATE 
NATO MEDALS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED NUMERALS AND NOT FOR THE SSM-NATO

(4) SERVICE OF CAF MEMBERS DEPLOYED TO FORWARD LOGISTICS SITES (FLS) 
IN DIRECT SUPPORT OF HMC SHIPS IN THE MEDITERRANEAN AND BLACK SEAS 
UNDER NATO SNMG2 (WHEN THE SHIPS ARE NOT UNDER OPS ACTIVE ENDEAVOUR 
OR SEA GUARDIAN), SINCE 29 APRIL 2014 (OP REASSURANCE). NO
MULTIPLYING FACTOR

(5) SERVICE OF CAF MEMBERS IN LATVIA AS PART OR IN DIRECT SUPPORT OF 
THE ENHANCED FORWARD PRESENCE (EFP) BATTLEGROUP LATVIA, SINCE 22 APR 
2017 (OP REASSURANCE). NO MULTIPLYING FACTOR

B.SPECIAL SERVICE MEDAL-EXPEDITION (SSM-EXP):

(1) SERVICE OF CAF MEMBERS WHO DEPLOYED TO UKRAINE TO PROVIDE 
MILITARY ASSISTANCE TO THE UKRAINIAN ARMED FORCES, SINCE 13 JUNE 
2015 (OP UNIFIER)

3. FULL CRITERIA AS WELL AS COMPLETE ELIGIBILITY LISTS MAY BE FOUND 
ON THE DH R WEB SITE AT http://HTTP://FORCES.GC.CA/EN/HONOURS-HISTORY-
MEDALS-CHART/MEDALS-CHART-INDEX.PAGE

4. GIVEN THE TIME THAT HAS ELAPSED SINCE REF A AND TO ENSURE THE 
MEDALS WILL BE SENT TO THE RECIPIENT S CURRENT UNIT IN A TIMELY 
MANNER, ALL APPLICATIONS FOR THE SSM-NATO BASED ON OP REASSURANCE 
SERVICE SUBMITTED BEFORE THE PROMULGATION OF REF A HAVE BEEN 
CANCELLED AND UNITS SHALL MAKE NEW APPLICATIONS FOR THEIR ELIGIBLE 
PERS IAW REFS B AND C
END OF ENGLISH TEXT /


----------



## The Bread Guy (2 Feb 2017)

Meanwhile ...


> Defence Minister Harjit Sajjan says the federal government is concerned about a new outbreak of fighting in Ukraine and is looking at ways to "improve" Canada's military support to the country.
> 
> "I'm looking at the options right now in terms of how we can improve our support, what changes that we need to make," Sajjan said Wednesday.
> 
> ...


----------



## The Bread Guy (14 Feb 2017)

_OP edit to fix link, correct next unit ..._

Some of the latest from The Canadian Press:


> Some 200 soldiers from Edmonton are preparing to deploy to Ukraine — though with everyone waiting to see whether the mission there will be extended, exactly how long they will be staying is anyone's guess.
> 
> Canada, Britain and the United States have had military trainers in Ukraine since the summer of 2015, after Russia annexed Crimea and began supporting separatist forces in Ukraine's Donbass region.
> 
> ...


----------



## The Bread Guy (15 Feb 2017)

From the CAF Info-machine:


> *Op UNIFIER recycles while supporting a good cause*
> 
> Article / February 10, 2017
> By Capt Stephen Neil, JTF-U Chaplain
> ...


----------



## The Bread Guy (20 Feb 2017)

How _"editorial triage"_ can sometimes work ...
Ukrainian defence magazine (in Ukrainian):  _"... Canada is working in some areas, but sometimes it happens so that Canadian businesses, unfortunately, can not work comfortably in Ukraine, because we have both corruption component. we have unresolved issues in law and foreign partners simply do not see how to further develop the defense industry in Ukraine, how to organize military-technical cooperation" ..."_
Russian military TV channel (in Russian):  _*"The US and Canada rejected the military cooperation with Ukraine* -- US and Canadian companies, previously supplied to Ukraine components for the production of weapons, refused to cooperate. This was stated by the director of information and consulting company Sergey Zgurets Defense Express ..."_


----------



## The Bread Guy (21 Feb 2017)

Some of the latest ...


> Canada is set to renew a military mission training Ukrainian troops to confront Russia-backed separatists in the east of Ukraine, despite concerns in Kiev over delays in announcing the extension of the program.
> 
> The Trudeau cabinet has not yet announced the extension of the two-year-old non-combat mission, dubbed Operation Unifier, which expires on March 31. The silence has sparked worries in Kiev, where the Ukrainian government is anxious for Western reassurance following the election of U.S. President Donald Trump, who has expressed interest in striking some kind of bargain with Russian President Vladimir Putin that could include lowering U.S. sanctions imposed over Moscow’s role in Ukraine.
> 
> ...


----------



## The Bread Guy (22 Feb 2017)

Hamilton Coalition to Stop the War petition:  Don't stay in Ukraine, Canada!


> Canada's military mission to Ukraine expires in March. For several reasons, it shouldn't be renewed.
> 
> First, the present Ukrainian government, installed in a coup orchestrated by Washington, isn't  worthy of our support. According to the BBC, former US Assistant Secretary of State, Victoria Nuland, admitted that the U.S.A. spent $5 billion over a number of years to instigate regime change in Ukraine.
> 
> ...


----------



## The Bread Guy (22 Feb 2017)

Canada helps train UKR NCO's - this from the UKR info-machine (in Ukrainian - Google Translation below):


> *In 197th Training Center NCO experts Armed Forces of Canada completed a course of training curricula according to NATO standards*
> Yesterday at 17:37 | ID: 27615 | Views: 215
> 
> In 197th NCOs Training Center completed a course of study rules curricula and teaching materials for training military to NATO standards, conducted by specialists of the Armed Forces of Canada.
> ...


Pix courtesy of the the UKR MoD Info-machine ...


----------



## The Bread Guy (24 Feb 2017)

Team Blue pushes for lethal aid (highlights mine) - shared under the Fair Dealing provisions of the _Copyright Act (R.S.C., 1985, c. C-42)_ ...


> The government must explain how it plans to continue support for Ukraine in light of recent Russian aggression and make a strong show of increasing both humanitarian and lethal aid to Ukrainian soldiers, Conservative MPs said Thursday.
> 
> In a press conference Thursday, the Conservative defence and foreign affairs critics called on the government to implement several steps they said would show strong support for Ukraine.
> 
> ...


Here's a 2 Feb 2017 statement Kent & Bezan appear to have issued well before this week's news conference:


> Peter Kent, the Official Opposition Critic for Foreign Affairs, and James Bezan, the Official Opposition Critic for National Defence, today issued the following statement urging Canada’s new Foreign Minister, the Hon. Chrystia Freeland, and her colleagues to take concrete action and support Ukraine in the face of ongoing Russian aggression:
> 
> “Russian forces continue to illegally occupy Ukraine’s sovereign territory and indiscriminate rebel artillery barrages are driving thousands of civilians from their communities.  As conditions deteriorate, Canada should not hesitate in offering additional support to our Ukrainian allies. While the previous Conservative government was proud to be a world leader in its support for Ukraine, many of our initiatives are set to expire.  We are calling on the Trudeau government to immediately renew and expand Canada’s support for humanitarian and military assistance and reverse the Liberal policy of appeasing the Kremlin and immediately restore the sharing of RADARSAT satellite images with the Government of Ukraine.
> 
> ...


For reference, attached find a timeline of CAN mil aid to UKR under Team Blue, who is now suggesting lethal aid.


----------



## The Bread Guy (5 Mar 2017)

Some of the latest on Canada's help via CBC.ca ...


> As the war in Eastern Ukraine grinds on, away from the international headlines, the country's Soviet-era military is struggling to suppress separatist forces backed by a modern, well-resourced Russian machine.
> 
> And it is looking to Canada for help.
> 
> ...


----------



## The Bread Guy (6 Mar 2017)

This just out from the info-machine:


> *The Honourable Harjit S. Sajjan, Minister of National Defence, and the Honourable Chrystia Freeland, Minister of Foreign Affairs today announced that the Government of Canada is extending Operation UNIFIER, the Canadian Armed Forces military training mission in Ukraine, until the end of March 2019. *
> 
> Through Operation UNIFIER, the Canadian Armed Forces provides military training and capacity-building assistance to Ukrainian Forces personnel in support of Ukraine’s efforts to maintain sovereignty, security, and stability.
> 
> ...


----------



## The Bread Guy (7 Mar 2017)

Some initial reactions ...

_*"Russia outraged by extension of Canada's military mission in Ukraine"*_ (UKR media)
_*"The Ukrainian Canadian Congress (UCC) welcomes today’s announcement that Canada’s military training mission to Ukraine – Operation UNIFIER – is being renewed until the end of March, 2019 ..."*_
_*"The Canadian government’s decision to extend its military mission in Ukraine is counterproductive and does not aid the political process, the Russian Embassy in Canada said in a press release ..."*_ (RUS media)
_*“The Americans want to diffuse responsibility and to show that not only the US military mission is present in Ukraine. The military expert Aleksandr Zhilin commented on the extension for two years of the Canadian military support for Kiev …”*_ (pro-RUS media monitoring)


----------



## The Bread Guy (8 Mar 2017)

Via the CF Info-machine:


> The new commander of Joint Task Force-Ukraine (JTF-U), Lieutenant-Colonel Mark Lubiniecki, assumed command from Lieutenant-Colonel Wayne Niven today during a ceremony at the International Peacekeeping and Security Centre in Starychi, Ukraine. The ceremony marks the transition between Rotations 2 and 3 of Operation UNIFIER, Canada’s capacity building and military training mission in Ukraine.
> 
> As commander of JTF-U, Lieutenant-Colonel Lubiniecki commands approximately 200 Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) personnel with the mission to conduct training with the Ukrainian Armed Forces in areas such as tactical army skills, leadership development, explosive ordnance disposal, battlefield medical aid, military police skills, and logistics modernization ...


----------



## Journeyman (8 Mar 2017)

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Via the CF Info-machine:


Mike Blackburn looking very stern; must be channelling his inner Foreign Legionnaire. 

Much like Lubiniecki is following the Canadian Army Sergeant Major's headdress lead: "the beret _shall_  cover the eyelids."   ;D


But seriously folks, be safe over there.


----------



## The Bread Guy (10 Mar 2017)

Some Russian response to Canada's mission extension ...


> Moscow is concerned over Canada's decision to extend the stay of its military mission in Ukraine and over Canada's supplies of ammunition to Ukraine's Armed Forces, because the ammunition could later end up in the conflict zone in Donbass, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said Friday.
> 
> On March 6, the government of Canada announced it will extend its military training mission in Ukraine until the end of March 2019.
> 
> "We took seriously the decision of Canada to extend by two years the military mission in Ukraine… Instead of exerting pressure on Kiev to compel it to fully implement its obligations under the Minsk agreements, Ottawa frankly plays into the hands of supporters of a military solution of the situation in Donbass, and also condones the continuation of the bloodshed," Zakharova said ...


As usual, I stand to be corrected, but I haven't read anyplace else about Canada selling/giving UKR ammo - it's certainly not mentioned in the info-machine material.


----------



## Ostrozac (10 Mar 2017)

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> ...As usual, I stand to be corrected, but I haven't read anyplace else about Canada selling/giving UKR ammo - it's certainly not mentioned in the info-machine material.



Ukraine is listed as a customer nation on the General Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Systems - Canada Industry Canada profile, and GDOTS-C is an ammunition/ordnance manufacturer.

http://www.ic.gc.ca/app/ccc/srch/nvgt.do?lang=eng&prtl=1&estblmntNo=260000001797&profile=cmpltPrfl&profileId=201&app=sold

But I'm not sure if I've seen any data on what specifically Ukraine is buying -- GDOTS-C makes simunition rounds, 5.56/7.62, grenades, 155mm propellant bags, etc...


----------



## The Bread Guy (10 Mar 2017)

Thanks for that - much appreciated.

I wasn't precise enough in my language ...


			
				milnews.ca said:
			
		

> ... I stand to be corrected, but I haven't read anyplace else about Canada*'s government* selling/giving UKR ammo - it's certainly not mentioned in the info-machine material.


... although if a Canadian company is selling, one might streeeeeeeeeetch "Canada giving/selling" to include that. #MaybeFakeNews


----------



## The Bread Guy (10 Mar 2017)

Re:  Canada sending ammo to UKR, it _must_ be true if the RUS Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson said it (link in Russian - Google Translate version below) ...


> ... On the decision of Canada to extend its military instructor mission in Ukraine
> 
> With serious concern, they took Canada's decision to extend for a period of two years its military mission in Ukraine. Within its framework, Canadian instructors are engaged in the so-called Ukrainian polygons. "Training" Ukrainian soldiers for subsequent shipment to the Donbass.
> 
> ...


... and it was reported in Russian state media ...


> ... according to the information that we have, Canada has begun to supply the Ukrainian military with ammunition that is sure to be delivered to the conflict zone," the Russian diplomat pointed out. "Canadians should realize that the consequences of such steps will be on their conscience."


... not to mention repeated in separatist UKR media ...


> Canada has begun to supply the Ukrainian military with ammunition that is sure to be delivered to the conflict zone, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova states.
> 
> By extending its military mission in Ukraine, Canada encourages the Ukrainian supporters using military force to resolve the Donbass conflict, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Friday ...


... and denied by Ukraine:


> The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has denied reports that Canada is providing ammunition to Ukraine.
> 
> "It's not true. This statement is nothing but a cynical lie," Bohdan Sennyk, the head of the Ukrainian General Staff press service, told reporters on Friday.
> 
> Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova earlier said Canada had started supplying ammunition to the Ukrainian authorities.


----------



## The Bread Guy (12 Mar 2017)

More from the separatist info-machine ...


> Many is asking why Canada is supplying ammunition and providing training for the Ukrainian Nazi battalions fighting in Donbass? Canadian newspaper Ottawa Citizen reports, that Canadian Foreign Minister, Chrystia Freeland, has West-Ukrainian roots and her grandfather was directly connected to the German Nazi forces.
> 
> There have been a number of articles circulating about Freeland’s Ukrainian grandfather, Michael Chomiak, and his ties to the Nazis, but these reports have been stamped blatantly as "Russian propaganda".
> 
> ...


----------



## The Bread Guy (12 Mar 2017)

On the RUS Foreign Ministry's allegations that Canada's supplying ammo to the Ukrainians, this from a DND spokesperson by email:


> ... Regarding allegations of a Canadian donation of ammunition to Ukraine, it is false. Here what the Ukrainian military had to say: https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/ukrainian-military-denies-receiving-ammo-canada.html ...


----------



## MilEME09 (13 Mar 2017)

We barely have ammo for us, let alone to donate

Sent from my LG-D852 using Tapatalk


----------



## PuckChaser (13 Mar 2017)

MilEME09 said:
			
		

> We barely have ammo for us, let alone to donate



Pretty sure we don't use a whole lot of 7.62x39mm, 7.62x54mmR or 12.7x108mm ammunition in regular training in Canada, so your allotment of 25 rounds for the year wouldn't be touched by donating lethal aid to the Ukrainians.


----------



## MilEME09 (13 Mar 2017)

Ukrainian forces have started using licence built M16s so 5.56 is needed

Sent from my LG-D852 using Tapatalk


----------



## PuckChaser (13 Mar 2017)

That ammo isn't going to come out of DND stocks, it'd be a Global Affairs Canada purchase with their cash out of whatever lowest bidder 5.56mm company can deliver to Ukraine. The CAF can advise on what lethal aid would be useful, but its GAC that makes the call and finds the rounds.


----------



## MilEME09 (13 Mar 2017)

PuckChaser said:
			
		

> That ammo isn't going to come out of DND stocks, it'd be a Global Affairs Canada purchase with their cash out of whatever lowest bidder 5.56mm company can deliver to Ukraine. The CAF can advise on what lethal aid would be useful, but its GAC that makes the call and finds the rounds.



oh i am well aware this story is full of baloney, only way we are providing ammo to Ukraine is by us going to a company to buy and ship to ukraine, like you said


----------



## The Bread Guy (13 Mar 2017)

PuckChaser said:
			
		

> That ammo isn't going to come out of DND stocks, it'd be a *Global Affairs Canada* purchase with their cash out of whatever lowest bidder 5.56mm company can deliver to Ukraine ...


And they haven't replied to my email yet  ;D


----------



## dangerboy (13 Mar 2017)

MilEME09 said:
			
		

> Ukrainian forces have started using licence built M16s so 5.56 is needed
> 
> Sent from my LG-D852 using Tapatalk



Looking at the pictures released by the CAF about Op UNIFIER, the soldiers are all using Warsaw Pact weapons (AK-74, PKM)


----------



## The Bread Guy (13 Mar 2017)

Meanwhile, MP's drop by and discover there's a war on ...


> Canada extended its military training mission in Ukraine this week, but the country needs more help to help ease the escalating humanitarian crisis, say an MP and a human rights advocate who just returned from the country.
> 
> Ontario Conservative MP Tony Clement travelled to Kyiv last week to meet with government officials and others and was surprised to learn of the huge scale of the crisis caused by the four-year conflict.
> 
> "This is a hot war, not a cold war, in Eastern Ukraine," Clement told CBC News. "There are casualties every day, soldiers and civilians. A lot of the world's attention is focused on Mosul, Syria and Iraq, but this war is a war, as well, and there are many people affected." ...


----------



## dimsum (13 Mar 2017)

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Meanwhile, MP's drop by and discover there's a war on ...



So, a reverse-racism assumption?  As in "oh...those are white (Orthodox) Christian folks shooting at each other, it can't be *that* bad"?


----------



## The Bread Guy (13 Mar 2017)

Dimsum said:
			
		

> So, a reverse-racism assumption?  As in "oh...those are white (Orthodox) Christian folks shooting at each other, it can't be *that* bad"?


I'll take "Former Yugoslavia for $400, Alex ..."


----------



## The Bread Guy (27 Mar 2017)

A new-ish (up as of 21 March 2017) e-petition is up @ the Parliament of Canada page ...


> Petition to the House of Commons
> 
> Whereas:
> 
> ...


Re:  the bits in yellow, it's interesting that the parliamentary sponsor for this petition was once the Parliamentary Secretary for National Defence for the governing party that failed to sign, cut the supply, ignored Ukraine's calls and failed to add.  

*#OppositionForTheSakeOfOpposition*?

You have until 19 July to sign the petition if you're interested.


----------



## jmt18325 (27 Mar 2017)

On Twitter there were a great many Conservative politicians wondering why Canada under the Liberals did not expand the mission - why could they not do better for the Ukraine?  In my mind, those type of questions are just as you say - opposition for the sake of.  This is a mission started by the Conservaties.  That the Liberals continued their path in a situation that has remained largely the same should be a rare opportunity for them to show solidarity and applaud the government.


----------



## The Bread Guy (28 Mar 2017)

And back to some news -- this from UKR media, shared under the Fair Dealing provisions of the _Copyright Act (R.S.C., 1985, c. C-42)_ ...


> *Canada to provide Ukraine with another batch of military equipment*
> 
> Canada will soon deliver to Ukraine the next batch of non-lethal military equipment.
> 
> ...


----------



## The Bread Guy (29 Mar 2017)

More from the former Parliamentary Secretary for National Defence on how Ukraine needs lethal military aid, shared under the Fair Dealing provisions of the _Copyright Act (R.S.C., 1985, c. C-42)_ ...


> *Ukraine needs lethal weapons – James Bezan*
> 28.03.2017 17:50 318
> 
> It has become obvious since the end of last year that the West has not been taking sufficient measures to make Russia implement the Minsk agreements.
> ...


----------



## The Bread Guy (1 Apr 2017)

More word of coming Canadian help ...


> *Canada getting ready to sign defense agreement with Ukraine – Harjit Sajjan*
> 31.03.2017 10:10 914
> 
> An agreement on cooperation between the defense ministries of Canada and Ukraine will be signed in the near future.
> ...


... while the two DefMin's prepare to meet in Ottawa:


> ... Defence Minister Harjit S. Sajjan and his Ukrainian counterpart, Defence Minister Stepan Poltorak, will be meeting to discuss the Canada-Ukraine defence relationship and hold a photo opportunity.
> 
> Date: Monday, April 3, 2017
> 
> ...


----------



## The Bread Guy (3 Apr 2017)

Let's see how the Russian info-machine distorts this offer to help out ...


> Canada and Ukraine have a long history of friendship, common values, and shared ambitions for the future of our peoples.
> 
> Defence Minister Harjit Sajjan met today with Ukrainian Defence Minister Stepan Poltorak to sign the Canada-Ukraine Defence Cooperation Arrangement.
> 
> ...


According to the Ukrainian Embassy in Ottawa*** (in Ukrainian) ...


> ... According to the Ambassador of Ukraine Andriy Shevchenko agreement identifies five priority areas of cooperation: 1) defense research, development and production; 2) Financial support; 3) logistics; 4) defense policy; 5) military education ...


*** - OP edit to get the envoy & embassy right.


----------



## Flavus101 (3 Apr 2017)

> 1) defense research, development and production; 2) Financial support; 3) logistics; 4) defense policy



There is there fatal flaw, relying on Canada to assist them in this. I give the Ukrainians 3 years before they are eventually parcelled off into mother Russia.


----------



## The Bread Guy (4 Apr 2017)

Meanwhile, in one of the many meetings UKR's DefMin held in Canada, he had a chance to chat up CCC folks - this from the UKR MoD (original in Ukrainian - Google Translation below) ...


> In Ottawa ended meeting of defense ministers of Ukraine and representatives of the defense industry in Canada.
> 
> Vice President of the Canadian Commercial Corporation (CCC) Cameron Mc Kenzie welcomed a delegation from Ukraine and stressed that interested in developing cooperation with Ukraine.
> 
> ...


----------



## The Bread Guy (22 Apr 2017)

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> More from the former Parliamentary Secretary for National Defence on how Ukraine needs lethal military aid, shared under the Fair Dealing provisions of the _Copyright Act (R.S.C., 1985, c. C-42)_ ...
> 
> 
> > Ukraine needs lethal weapons – James Bezan ...


More of the same ...


> Canada should finally allow Ukraine buying defensive weapons.
> 
> James Bezan, the Official Opposition Critic for National Defence and member of Conservative Shadow Cabinet, said this in an interview with Ukrinform.
> 
> ...


It's a real shame that bit in yellow couldn't have been done before ...


----------



## daftandbarmy (24 Apr 2017)

Here's a topic you can 'sink your teeth into'  

The volunteer Dentists on the front lines of Ukraine's War...

https://www.wired.com/2017/04/pete-kiehart-ukrop-dental-ukraine/


----------



## The Bread Guy (26 Apr 2017)

This from the UKR MoD Info-machine ...


> *Canadian military policemen to train Ukrainian military law enforcement staff in Lviv*
> 
> Canadian military policemen to train Ukrainian military law enforcement staff in Lviv Canadian military policemen to train Ukrainian military law enforcement staff in Lviv Canadian military policemen to train Ukrainian military law enforcement staff in Lviv Canadian military policemen to train Ukrainian military law enforcement staff in Lviv Canadian military policemen to train Ukrainian military law enforcement staff in Lviv Canadian military policemen to train Ukrainian military law enforcement staff in Lviv Canadian military policemen to train Ukrainian military law enforcement staff in Lviv Canadian military policemen to train Ukrainian military law enforcement staff in Lviv Canadian military policemen to train Ukrainian military law enforcement staff in Lviv
> 
> ...


A few pix attached (photo credit:  UKR MoD)


----------



## The Bread Guy (25 May 2017)

A bit of the bigger, political picture, via the Ukrainian President's information machine (statement also attached in case link doesn't work)...


> *President of Ukraine coordinated positions with the Prime Minister of Canada on the eve of the G7 and NATO meeting
> *
> 25 May 2017 - 14:28
> 
> ...


----------



## The Bread Guy (27 May 2017)

This via the UKR MoD info-machine (original in Ukrainian here, Google English translation below) ...


> *Military engineers have received qualified instructors NATO standards*
> 
> Military engineers have received qualified instructors NATO-standard military engineers have gained qualifications of instructors NATO-standard military engineers qualified instructors gained by NATO standards
> 
> ...


Attached photos via Ukrainian MoD


----------



## The Bread Guy (15 Jun 2017)

This from The Canadian Press, shared under the Fair Dealing provisions of the _Copyright Act (R.S.C., 1985, c. C-42)_ ...


> The military has quietly expanded its footprint in Ukraine, giving commanders free rein to send their troops anywhere — except where they might run into Russian forces or separatist rebels.
> 
> Canada first deployed about 200 troops to Ukraine in the summer of 2015 to help train government forces in their fight against Russian-backed separatists in the eastern part of the country.
> 
> ...


Stand by, I suppose, for more stories in the separatist/Russian media like these?


			
				milnews.ca said:
			
		

> It appears the anti-UKR info-machine is shooting out a bit more Canadian content ...
> 
> 9 Sept 2016:  _"*11 Canadian Mercenaries Go Home in Bodybags After “Master Class” in Donbass* -- A master-class of “maple leaves” in the fight against militias ended in disaster. A group of at least 20 people (three reconnaissance groups) from the Canadian forces CANSOFCOM tried to attack the militia positions in the area of the Ukrainian punisher operation.  It ended in disaster for them. The operation was under development without the involvement of the Ukrainian fighters for the demonstration of a “master-class of fighting against terrorists”.  Those responsible were from the Canadian Security Intelligence Service. The military attache of Canada in Ukraine Colonel Ron Ubbens was in charge of the matter. All this, of course, is unofficial ..."_ - original article in Russian here
> 19 Sept 2016:  _"*Canadian Instructors Train UAF Fighters for Urban Combat in Donbass* -- LPR reconnaissance has found that instructors from Canada are deployed with Ukrainian servicemen near the contact line in Donbass. This was said by the official representative of the LPR militia Andrey Marochko. According to him, the Canadian military work with the Kiev Armed Forces in combat tactics in an urban environment.  “According to our intelligence, in the area of the settlement Schastia, the 2nd division of the 28th battalion Guard Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces are being trained for combat in an urban environment under the leadership of Canadian instructors,” said Marochko ..."_ - original article in Russian here


----------



## The Bread Guy (15 Jun 2017)

And this from Russian-state media RIA Novosti, apparently based on an interview during some media availability with the TF boss this week, shared under the Fair Dealing provisions of the _Copyright Act (R.S.C., 1985, c. C-42)_ ...


> *Ukraine Battalion Tactical Groups to Start Training at Starychi in 2018*
> 01:46 15.06.2017 (updated 03:20 15.06.2017)
> 
> _*Canadian training mission to Ukraine commander Lt. Col. Mark Lubiniecki said that the Starychi combat training center in Ukraine is looking to start rotations of battalion tactical groups in 2018.*_
> ...


----------



## The Bread Guy (16 Jun 2017)

And in case you don't think Canada's important enough to be targetted by RUS disinfo, this from UKR separatist media (NOTE:  in case it's not obvious, there have been no government or MSM reports of 12+ Canadians being killed in Ukraine) - text of article also attached if you don't want to hit the link ...


> *Over A Dozen Canadian Soldiers Killed In Donbass, Trudeau Wants More To Come Home In Flag Draped Caskets, Mission Now Extends In Ukraine !*
> 
> After having lost a dozen soldiers killed fighting in Donbass this spring, Ottawa is now trying to explain it away by giving “permission” for Canadian troops to train Ukrainians killing their own citizens in Donbass. It is now only a matter of time until more Canadians go home in flag covered boxes, having died for what American officials call, “the most corrupt nation on earth.”
> 
> ...


This appears to be a rehash of this story from the fall, with a bit of current political commentary added ...


			
				milnews.ca said:
			
		

> ... 9 Sept 2016:  _"*11 Canadian Mercenaries Go Home in Bodybags After “Master Class” in Donbass* -- A master-class of “maple leaves” in the fight against militias ended in disaster. A group of at least 20 people (three reconnaissance groups) from the Canadian forces CANSOFCOM tried to attack the militia positions in the area of the Ukrainian punisher operation.  It ended in disaster for them. The operation was under development without the involvement of the Ukrainian fighters for the demonstration of a “master-class of fighting against terrorists”.  Those responsible were from the Canadian Security Intelligence Service. The military attache of Canada in Ukraine Colonel Ron Ubbens was in charge of the matter. All this, of course, is unofficial ..."_ - original article in Russian here ...


----------



## dimsum (16 Jun 2017)

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> And in case you don't think Canada's important enough to be targetted by RUS disinfo, this from UKR separatist media (NOTE:  in case it's not obvious, there have been no government or MSM reports of 12+ Canadians being killed in Ukraine) - text of article also attached if you don't want to hit the link ...This appears to be a rehash of this story from the fall, with a bit of current political commentary added ...





Ukrainian Nazi-SS Men in Canada?  Would You Like To Know More??   :


----------



## MilEME09 (16 Jun 2017)

I laugh that they name both CANSOFCOM and CSIS, two completely seperate organizations. Someone didnt do their homework.

Sent from my LG-D852 using Tapatalk


----------



## The Bread Guy (16 Jun 2017)

MilEME09 said:
			
		

> I laugh that they name both CANSOFCOM and CSIS, two completely seperate organizations. Someone didnt do their homework.


And the original source "story" in September claimed the Canadian military attache to Ukraine led the ill-fated Canadian commando mission.


----------



## The Bread Guy (20 Jun 2017)

This from the UKR MoD info-machine in English ...


> *Canadian armed forces delegation visits future military law enforcement training centre in Lviv*
> 
> Canadian armed forces delegation visits future military law enforcement training centre in Lviv Canadian armed forces delegation visits future military law enforcement training centre in Lviv Canadian armed forces delegation visits future military law enforcement training centre in Lviv Canadian armed forces delegation visits future military law enforcement training centre in Lviv
> 
> ...


... and in Ukrainian (Google English translation in quote box):


> *The delegation of the Canadian Armed Forces familiarized itself with the capabilities of the Training Center of the Military Service of Law Enforcement, which is being set up in Lviv*
> 
> In Lviv, the Western Territorial Department of the Military Service was visited by a delegation of the Canadian Armed Forces led by Strategic Advisor to the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine Mrs. Jill Sinkler***.
> 
> ...


Photo credit for attached pix:  UKR MoD

*** - Likely a transliteration error approximation of Jill Sinclair, appointed in January as Canada's rep to the Ukrainian Defence Reform Advisory Board.


----------



## The Bread Guy (30 Jun 2017)

CAN, UKR DefMin's meet at NATO meeting in Belgium - this from the UKR MoD info-machine ...


> *In Brussels Stepan Poltorak holds talks with Harjit Sajjan*
> 
> In Brussels Stepan Poltorak holds talks with Harjit Sajjan In Brussels Stepan Poltorak holds talks with Harjit Sajjan In Brussels Stepan Poltorak holds talks with Harjit Sajjan In Brussels Stepan Poltorak holds talks with Harjit Sajjan In Brussels Stepan Poltorak holds talks with Harjit Sajjan In Brussels Stepan Poltorak holds talks with Harjit Sajjan
> 
> ...


Statement in Ukrainian (with short chatting video) here - attached photos from UKR MoD.


----------



## The Bread Guy (28 Jul 2017)

More allegations of "Canadian instructors/mercenaries" being in Eastern UKR via rebel sitrep briefings ...


> *Canadian military instructors detected in AFU ranks in Avdeyevka*
> Thursday, July 27, 2017 - 15:54
> 
> The DPR reconnaissance have detected instructors from Canada at the Ukrainian Armed Forces' positions near Avdeyevka, reported the Vice-Commander of the DPR Operational Command, Eduard Bazurin.
> ...


Source - Alternate SAFER source****


> *Canadian Instructors/Mercenaries Spotted Outside Avdeevka , And Attempted Rape Of A Young Girl By Nazi Ukraine Scum Soldiers In Druzhkovka ! (VIDEO)*
> on: July 28, 2017
> 
> MILITARY SITUATION REPORT/VIDEO FROM THE HIGH COMMAND OF THE DPR PEOPLE’S ARMY COL. BASURIN !  (VIDEO)***
> ...


Source - Alternate SAFER source****


*** - links to 3 1/2 minute briefing in Russian (no subtitles) on Youtube
****[/sup] - Alternate link is via archive.org in case you worry about sharing your information with, or the potential of malware or other nasties coming from UKR separatist web pages


----------



## dimsum (28 Jul 2017)

With headlines like Nazi Ukraine Scum, I wonder how unbiased their reporting would be  >

Those look like headlines from The_Donald subreddit.


----------



## The Bread Guy (29 Jul 2017)

Dimsum said:
			
		

> With headlines like Nazi Ukraine Scum, I wonder how unbiased their reporting would be  >


That, and all the exclamation marks in the headlines, gives it away as more of an un-fact-checking fan boy repeater site.

Meanwhile, this, for the record, from the CAF on this one:


> While CAF personnel are involved in training activities in different locations in Ukraine, they are always a significant distance from conflict areas in eastern Ukraine, including Donetsk and Avdiivka.


So, if Canadians ARE doing any military training there, it doesn't seem to be Canadian military doing the training.

Keep enjoying the separatist lies creativity!


----------



## The Bread Guy (11 Aug 2017)

Shared under the Fair Dealing provisions of the _Copyright Act (R.S.C., 1985, c. C-42)_ ...


> *Ukrainian Armed Forces adopts many NATO-like safety standards – Canadian military instructor*
> ukrinform.net, 11.08.2017 10:57
> 
> The Ukrainian military command requested Canada to help introduce the NATO-like safety standards in the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
> ...


----------



## The Bread Guy (24 Aug 2017)

Some screen captures of Canadian troops parading during today's UKR Independence Day parade (source) - first foreign formation after UKR's troops.


----------



## The Bread Guy (24 Aug 2017)

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Some screen captures of Canadian troops parading during today's UKR Independence Day parade (source) - first foreign formation after UKR's troops.


And one more from the Ukrainian MoD info-machine (source, in Ukrainian).


----------



## MilEME09 (25 Aug 2017)

Curious that none of their name tapes have names on them, must be a concern of the otherside IDing soldiers and using their names for evil


----------



## The Bread Guy (25 Aug 2017)

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> And one more from the Ukrainian MoD info-machine (source, in Ukrainian).


And yet another photo from Ukrainian media (source) ...


----------



## The Bread Guy (2 Sep 2017)

UKR separatist media***:  Canadian cop trainer hit up for bribe by UKR colleagues?


> *Ukrainian policemen rob Canadian instructor who came to teach them*
> Saturday, September 2, 2017 - 15:13
> 
> In Kiev, the police robbed their colleague from Canada, who came to Ukraine to train law enforcement officers, reported by "Strana.ua".
> ...


Test of original Strana.ua source article (in Russian and Google English) attached - no other open source media confirmation at this point.

*** - This links to an archived version of the story in question, saving you from clicking on a site that, 1) gets your info and 2) "shares" who knows what.


----------



## The Bread Guy (14 Sep 2017)

1)  Canadian Senior Advisor meets with UKR's Def Min -- this from UKR MoD's info-machine ...


> *Stepan Poltorak: All activities supported by Canada are very successful in Ukraine*
> 
> Defence Minister Stepan Poltorak held talks with Senior Adviser Jill Sinclair (Canada) in Kyiv.
> 
> ...


... and this:


> *Senior Adviser Jill Sinclair: Canada supports Ukraine and welcomes Ukraine’s efforts to approach NATO*
> 
> Minister of Defence of Ukraine General of the Army of Ukraine Stepan Poltorak held talks with Senior Adviser Jill Sinclair (Canada). The parties discussed the reforms of the Ukrainian Defence Ministry and further cooperation between Ukraine and Canada. The Defence Minister stressed that all initiated reforms were implemented as scheduled. “Currently, we are developing the infrastructure of the Armed Forces of Ukraine,” Gen. Poltorak said, “Financial reform will also allow us to raise the interest of people to military service.” Stepan Poltorak thanked Ambassador of Canada to Ukraine Mr Roman Waschuk assistance provided by Canada for construction of the Law Enforcement Training Centre in Lviv. Jill Sinclair underscored that Canada supported Ukraine and welcomes Ukraine’s efforts to approach NATO.



2)  Translation services contract awarded to UK firm ...


> *Leeds language communications firm wins Canadian Armed Forces contract*
> Nick Hill, bdaily.co.uk, 13 Sept 2017
> 
> thebigword, the Leeds-based language services provider, has secured a new contract to deliver interpreting services to the Canadian Armed Forces in Ukraine.
> ...


Company's 11 Sept 2017 news release also attached.


----------



## The Bread Guy (18 Sep 2017)

New commander takes over ...


> Today (16 Sept 2017), Joint Task Force-Ukraine (JTF-U) held a ceremony to welcome Lieutenant-Colonel Kristopher Reeves, who assumed command from Lieutenant-Colonel Mark Lubiniecki at the International Peacekeeping and Security Centre in Starychi, Ukraine.
> 
> As commander of JTF-U, Lieutenant-Colonel Reeves commands approximately 200 Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) personnel with the mission to conduct training with the Ukrainian Armed Forces in areas such as tactical army skills, leadership development, explosive ordnance disposal, battlefield medical aid, military police skills, and logistics modernization. Since the start of the mission in September 2015, more than 5580 Ukrainian Armed Forces members have participated in training provided by the CAF via some 140 course serials.
> 
> ...


Pix (second photo - incoming commander speaking by podium -- Photo credit:  Joint Task Force - Ukraine) attached.


----------



## The Bread Guy (23 Sep 2017)

Some photos from the 15 Sept 2017 opening of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Military Law and Order Service Academy in Lviv attached (photo credit:  CAF Joint Task Force - Ukraine).
Info-machine captions:
1 -- _"Canadian Armed Forces Major N. Flight, Deputy Commanding Officer of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Military Law and Order Service Academy is shown during the academy’s opening ceremony on September 15, 2017 in Lviv, Ukraine."_
2 -- _"Canadian Armed Forces members take part in the opening ceremony of the new Academy of Military Law and Order Service in Lviv, Ukraine, on Friday, 15 September 2017. "_
3 -- _"Commander Joint Task Force-Ukraine, LCol K. Reeves (R) and  Major N. Flight (L), Deputy Commanding Officer of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Military Law and Order Service Academy during briefings following the academy’s opening ceremony on September 15, 2017 in Lviv, Ukraine."_
4 -- _" Ukrainian Military Police Use of Force Training demonstration following the opening ceremony of the new Academy of Military Law and Order Service in Lviv, Ukraine, on Friday, 15 September 2017. "_


----------



## The Bread Guy (26 Sep 2017)

Since SAT INT was mentioned earlier in this thread, I'm sharing this here ...

A touch of backstory:  Team Blue started sharing satellite with UKR (in spite of some worries it could end up in RUS hands) in early 2015.  Team Red stopped the flow of sat imagery as of May 2016 reportedly due to, depending on who you believe, _"carefully considering the utility of this contribution — compared to Canada’s many other forms of assistance to Ukraine"_ (Global Affairs info-machine) or "budgetary constaints" (UKR envoy to CAN quoted in UKR media).

Now, here's the latest ...

_*“Ukraine asks Canada for access to satellite images to monitor Russian, rebel troop movements”*_ (cbc.ca, based on int'view with UKR President)
_*“Poroshenko asks Canada to start providing intelligence to Ukraine again from satellite”*_ (TASS, in Russian)
_*“Poroshenko asked Canada to resume provision of satellite intelligence”*_ (Izvetsia, in Russian)

In other developments, CAN's reportedly helping develop a policing school in UKR (links to UKR MoD info-machine article in Ukrainian), CAN's DefMin's dropping by UKR this week, and members of the Commons Standing Committee on National Defence met with #UKR's DefMin & visited some facilities - more on the latter here, here (UKR MoD info-machine photos attached), here and here.


----------



## The Bread Guy (29 Sep 2017)

From the joint info-machines ...


> *The Honourable Harjit S. Sajjan, Minister of National Defence - Joint Statement to Ukrainian Media with Ukraine’s Minister of Defence*
> Speech
> From National Defence
> Please check against delivery
> ...


----------



## Mr. St-Cyr (23 Oct 2017)

The rotations that followed mine have a much bigger sand box to play in.


----------



## garb811 (19 May 2018)

Russians trying to stir things up a bit...



> *Feds deny Russian rumours that 3 Canadian soldiers were killed in Ukraine*
> CTVNews.ca Staff
> Published Friday, May 18, 2018 7:01PM EDT
> 
> ...


----------



## Lumber (8 Aug 2018)

I was just reading about the war in Donbass and couldn't help but be flabbergasted by the how soundly it seemed like the Ukrainian military got it's ass handed to it by a the rebels (acknowledging that the rebels were heavily supported by Russia).

That being said, I was wondering if anyone who's deployed to Op UNIFIER had any anecdotes about the Ukrainian Armed Forces? Any stories about things they did really well or really BAD, or just interesting things about how they do business?


----------



## MilEME09 (8 Aug 2018)

Lumber said:
			
		

> I was just reading about the war in Donbass and couldn't help but be flabbergasted by the how soundly it seemed like the Ukrainian military got it's *** handed to it by a the rebels (acknowledging that the rebels were heavily supported by Russia).
> 
> That being said, I was wondering if anyone who's deployed to Op UNIFIER had any anecdotes about the Ukrainian Armed Forces? Any stories about things they did really well or really BAD, or just interesting things about how they do business?



This is second hand, but I heard a story that we trained a ukrainian company on what do to when coming under artillery attack, most of them apparently fucked us off and said we didn't know what we were talking about. That company went went to Donbas, got hit by arty, and only a handful came back uninjured or not killed. They came back to reinforce that the Canadians should be listened to.


----------



## daftandbarmy (8 Aug 2018)

MilEME09 said:
			
		

> This is second hand, but I heard a story that we trained a ukrainian company on what do to when coming under artillery attack, most of them apparently ****ed us off and said we didn't know what we were talking about. That company went went to Donbas, got hit by arty, and only a handful came back uninjured or not killed. They came back to reinforce that the Canadians should be listened to.



You can lead a horse to water....  :facepalm:


----------



## The Bread Guy (20 Jan 2019)

From the UKR Defence Intelligence info-machine -- in Ukrainian, and in Google English ...


> *The intelligence training program will be updated*
> January 16, 2019
> 
> In the latest methods of training soldiers taken into account the combat experience of the leading armies of the world
> ...


UKR-supplied photo attached


----------



## The Bread Guy (20 Feb 2019)

Via the UKR MoD info-machine, coverage of 2 Can Div's boss visit (article in Ukrainian, translation below via Google Translate) ...


> *Commander of the 2nd Division of the Armed Forces of Canada, General Jenny Karignan visited the contingent of Operation UNIFIER and the WSP Training Center*
> Yesterday at 16:50 | ID: 47503 | Views: 598
> 
> In Lviv, during the study visit, Commander of the 2nd Division of the Armed Forces of Canada, General Jenny Karigan, acquainted with the infrastructure, capabilities of the International Center for Peacemaking and Safety of the National Academy of Land Forces named after Hetman Petra Sagaidachnyk, and inspected the objects of the educational and material base.
> ...


Attached pix via UKR MoD.


----------



## McG (21 Feb 2019)

Lumber said:
			
		

> I was just reading about the war in Donbass and couldn't help but be flabbergasted by the how soundly it seemed like the Ukrainian military got it's ass handed to it by a the rebels (acknowledging that the rebels were heavily supported by Russia).


The Ukrainian Army was dominating until it got touched by batteries of BM-21.  Ukraine was beat by the Russian war machine, not by rebels or not-Russian soldiers (as many of the rebels were).


----------



## The Bread Guy (21 Feb 2019)

Another Canadian visitor ...


> *The Canadian Joint Operations Command Commander visited the International Peacemaking and Security Center*
> 
> Yesterday at 13:10 | ID: 47558 | Views: 11
> 
> ...


Photo credit for attached pix:  UKR MoD


----------



## The Bread Guy (25 Feb 2019)

This from The Canadian Press ...


> *Ukraine asks Canada to send message to Russia by extending military mission*
> The Canadian Press
> February 25, 2019
> 
> ...


More @ link


----------



## blacktriangle (25 Feb 2019)

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Another Canadian visitor ...Photo credit for attached pix:  UKR MoD



Comd CJOC - if you are are reading this, your fans love the beard! 

 :nod:


----------



## The Bread Guy (19 Mar 2019)

Three more years -- this from the DND info-machine ...


> *Canada extends its military training mission in Ukraine*
> From: National Defence
> News release
> March 18, 2019 – Ottawa – National Defence / Canadian Armed Forces
> ...


Bit more @ link


----------



## The Bread Guy (19 Mar 2019)

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Three more years -- this from the DND info-machine ...Bit more @ link


... and the UKR MoD version:


> *Ministers of Defense of Ukraine and Canada discussed further cooperation during the telephone conversation*
> 2019-03-18 19:15:00 | ID: 48298
> 
> A telephone conversation between the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Stepan Poltorak and the Minister of National Defense of Canada Harjit Singh Sajjan took place.
> ...


----------



## The Bread Guy (27 Mar 2019)

Canada sends Ukraine some military police cars - DND-info-machine version ...


> On Sunday March 17th, 2019, the parade square of the 25th Military Law and Order Service (MLOS) Training Centre saw a new formation – 56 police vehicles formed around the perimeter, each with lights flashing and newly emblazoned crests of the MLOS. This unique event was the culmination of a project that began in 2017 between Canadian and Ukrainian Military Police, as they worked to rebuild the 25th MLOS Training Centre, and indeed the military police capability within the country.
> 
> The vehicles are one part of a $1.2M donation project. This includes computers and training equipment that was initiated under the umbrella of Operation UNIFIER. Operation UNIFIER is the recently renewed Canadian Armed Forces mission to support the Security Forces of Ukraine. Most precisely, this donation will enhance the training capability at the training centre in Lviv and at the MLOS’ regional training detachments across Ukraine.
> 
> “This equipment will improve the effectiveness of training and increase operational capabilities by keeping pace with the needs of a growing organization, while contributing to the ongoing efforts to strengthen and reform the MLOS,”.said Captain Bernard Caron, Officer Commanding the Military Police Training Group. As the Deputy Commander of the 25th MLOS Training Centre, Captain Caron will be able to see the impact of this donation first-hand ...


... and a UKR media version a week or so earlier, right after the event.


> Canada gave 56 units of vehicles for the needs of the units of the military police of the Armed forces of Ukraine.
> 
> More than 50 units of vehicles, the representatives of the training of the mission operations UNIFIER from the canadian Armed forces transferred for needs of units of the military police of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. This was reported by press service of the defense Ministry.
> 
> ...


More @ links

Photo credit for attached pix: Captain Bernie Caron


----------



## The Bread Guy (28 Mar 2019)

Not _strictly_ Op UNIFIER, but still in the area -- HMCS Toronto dropping by Odessa (via UKR media)...


> NATO ships will stay in the Black Sea during the elections of the President of Ukraine and the vote counting.
> 
> "During the elections of the President of Ukraine and the vote counting, the ships of the Standing NATO Maritime Group Two (SNMG2) and some others will stay in the Black Sea. Now we have information about the Royal Canadian Navy frigate HMCS Toronto (FFH 333) and the Spanish Navy frigate Santa Maria (F-81)," Chair of the Supervisory Board of the Maidan of Foreign Affairs Andrii Klymenko wrote on Facebook with reference to the information of the monitoring group of the Institute for Black Sea Strategic Studies, the Maidan of Foreign Affairs and the BlackSeaNews.net editorial staff ...


More @ link

More details, in Ukrainian, at the Canadian Embassy's FB event page here.


----------



## Eye In The Sky (28 Mar 2019)

From the CAF Operations FB Page:

*For three weeks, we’re joining our NATO allies in the Black Sea. Starting today, HMCS Toronto will be conducting exercises and patrols with Standing NATO Maritime Group Two. *

* She's sailing with a CH-148 AIRDET.


----------



## The Bread Guy (29 Mar 2019)

Via UKR's MoD info-machine (original in Ukrainian - translation below via Google Translate):


> *Canadian military instructors, seamstresses of the 7th rotation completed their mission at the Demining Center*
> 1 hour ago | ID: 48618
> 
> Today, March 29, in Kamyanets-Podilsky, the military personnel of the Mine Center of the Main Directorate of Operational Support of the Armed Forces of Ukraine farewell to the personnel of the Joint Task Force of the Armed Forces of Canada for this rotation.
> ...


Photos courtesy of UKR MoD


----------



## The Bread Guy (29 Mar 2019)

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Not _strictly_ Op UNIFIER, but still in the area -- HMCS Toronto dropping by Odessa (via UKR media)...More @ link
> 
> More details, in Ukrainian, at the Canadian Embassy's FB event page here.





			
				Eye In The Sky said:
			
		

> From the CAF Operations FB Page:
> 
> *For three weeks, we’re joining our NATO allies in the Black Sea. Starting today, HMCS Toronto will be conducting exercises and patrols with Standing NATO Maritime Group Two. *
> 
> * She's sailing with a CH-148 AIRDET.


And, a bit of company ...

_*"Russian Navy escorts NATO ships in Black Sea on way to Ukraine"*_ (UKR media)
_*"Russian Navy Escorts NATO Ships in Black Sea on Way to Ukraine"*_ (RUS independent media)
_*"NATO exercises in Black Sea unrelated to Ukrainian election, (Standing NATO Maritime Group Two) official says"*_ (RUS state media)


----------



## garb811 (29 Mar 2019)

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Canada sends Ukraine some military police cars - DND-info-machine version ...... and a UKR media version a week or so earlier, right after the event.More @ links
> 
> Photo credit for attached pix: Captain Bernie Caron


Pretty cool that we've managed to give the Ukrainian MP a newer white fleet than what Canadian MP are blessed with...


----------



## Journeyman (30 Mar 2019)

garb811 said:
			
		

> Pretty cool that we've managed to give the Ukrainian MP a newer white fleet than what Canadian MP are blessed with...


How many Canadian-Ukrainian votes are up for grabs versus Canadian MP votes?

/cynicism    Nahh, that wasn't actually cynical.


----------



## Oldgateboatdriver (30 Mar 2019)

Am I the only one who noticed that the DND release talks about the cars donated to the training centre, and pictures the small Ford fusion vehicles with trainees in their green vests beside them, while the UKR release talks about the four-wheel drive and transit vans vehicles for special police functions and shows the trained UKR MP's?

 ;D


----------



## Rifleman62 (30 Mar 2019)

They are probably "Green" electric vehicles with no place to plug them in.


----------



## The Bread Guy (30 Mar 2019)

Oldgateboatdriver said:
			
		

> Am I the only one who noticed that the DND release talks about the cars donated to the training centre, and pictures the small Ford fusion vehicles with trainees in their green vests beside them, while the UKR release talks about the four-wheel drive and transit vans vehicles for special police functions and shows the trained UKR MP's?
> 
> ;D


Since I don't see 50+ vehicles in the pix they've shared, it's possible some of the other vehicles _may_ fit the UKR description.

Also, what you're reading here from UKR's info-machine is a Google translation from the Ukrainian (I haven't seen an official UKR MoD English translation yet).  It's better than nothing, but based on my experience with translating other languages, the granular details _may_ not match the Ukrainian nuances.


----------



## The Bread Guy (1 Apr 2019)

"Everyone with blue eyes who speaks Ukrainian, raise your hands ...."  ;D


> A long deployment away from home is nothing unusual for Canadian sailors. There are certain constants they can look forward to, like the daily routines of life at sea, camaraderie with shipmates, and hot soup every morning.
> 
> For a group of Royal Canadian Navy members currently deployed on Operation UNIFIER in Ukraine, however, the experience has been a little different.
> 
> ...


More from the CAN Army info-machine here.


----------



## The Bread Guy (3 Apr 2019)

Eye In The Sky said:
			
		

> From the CAF Operations FB Page:
> 
> *For three weeks, we’re joining our NATO allies in the Black Sea. Starting today, HMCS Toronto will be conducting exercises and patrols with Standing NATO Maritime Group Two. *
> 
> * She's sailing with a CH-148 AIRDET.


Here's some photos of HMCS Toronto in Odessa, via the UKR MoD's info-machine (source).


----------



## Cloud Cover (3 Apr 2019)

TOR was laid down 30 yrs ago this month. It’s good to see her still getting about.


----------



## The Bread Guy (13 Apr 2019)

This, via UKR media, from the Conservative defence critic James Bezan, at a security conference in Ukraine ...


> ... "We should also increase our presence in the Black Sea. We even talk about the submarines, which are now in the Mediterranean Sea but may also ‘unexpectedly’ appear in the Black Sea. If we have agreements and conventions on our participation in certain efforts in the Black Sea basin, we will do it," ... If it is not done, then, in the opinion of the politician, "Putin will try to advance further in the territory of a foreign country."  "We need to move forward, strengthen Ukraine, giving it more training in terms of military capabilities, training of personnel. Ukraine is indeed the ‘shield’ that protects the Western world from what is coming from the East" ...


... and this summary from RUS state media:


> ... Canadian lawmaker James Bezan has suggested redeploying NATO submarines from the Mediterranean to the Black Sea during his speech at the Kiev Security Forum. In his opinion such measures would help stop the supposed potential "advance" of Russian forces. The politician didn't specify which "advance" he was talking about.  Bezan also called for increasing the amount of military technologies and weapons sent to Ukraine, as well as providing its troops with more training. He pointed out that NATO states possess weaponry that can be of use for Kiev in its battle in the country's east ...


----------



## The Bread Guy (3 Jun 2019)

CAN tps helping train UKR NCO's - this, via Google Translate, from the UKR MoD info-machine ...


> *NATO experts visited the NCOs*
> 5 hours ago | ID: 50147
> 
> A visit to Ukraine of NATO experts on development of a professional sergeant corps and personnel training took place in Ukraine.
> ...


Link to original article (in Ukrainian) here.

Attached photo credit:  UKR MoD


----------



## The Bread Guy (12 Jul 2019)

RUS gov't picking on Canada ...

_*"Russian diplomat blasts US, Canada for support of Kiev forces’ sniper activity in Donbass* -- The two states have been supplying arms to Ukraine, according to Russia's diplomat ..."_
_*"About 600 NATO experts train Ukrainian military officers, says Russia’s envoy to OSCE* -- The diplomat said the delivery of munitions from Lithuania to Kiev or Canada’s inclusion of Ukraine in the list of states permitting arms sale*** won't contribute to the improvement of the situation ..."_
... and the Mounties grow their help:


> The Royal Canadian Mounted Police is pleased to coordinate the extension and expansion of Canadian police deployments to Ukraine. Following a renewed commitment by the Government of Canada to support Ukraine's reform agenda, up to 45 Canadian police will deploy to the country, more than doubling the previous maximum of 20. The additional deployments will extend an additional two years, to 2021.  Canadian police deployed to Ukraine serve in one of two missions: a bilateral mission with the National Police of Ukraine or the European Union Advisory Mission for Civilian Security Sector Reform (EUAM Ukraine) ...



*** - More on that here (UKR media).


----------



## The Bread Guy (28 Aug 2019)

Hmmmm, how the disinfo wheel turns ...

Here's one American officer's *ALLEGED* view of UKR troops @ a training complex where the Canadians are also working (text also attached in case the post disappears) ...


> My soldiers' efforts are focused on boosting Yavoriv Combat Training Center and training instructors to see the defense capabilities of the Ukrainian Ground Forces getting stronger each day. However from what I’ve seen here, I have to say, our training mission could be extended beyond 2020. It’s not about the training infrastructure and equipment. It’s mainly about Ukrainian soldiers.
> 
> Firstly, they don’t speak English. The truth is, they don't truly care about actually learning it. Given the amount they seem to care about English, my instructors need an extra platoon of interpreters during training. But it doesn't work in all cases. Thing is, they don't have a complete understanding of each other! They are kind of a mishmash of different folks being trained here. Some of them speak only Ukrainian or only Russian, whereas others can only speak Romanian or Hungarian.
> 
> ...


According to this account, a Lt. Col. Robert Tracy is the commander of 1st Battalion, 502nd Infantry Regiment and senior commander for Task Force Carentan, training UKR troops via the Joint Multinational Training Group - Ukraine.

Today, via FB, the Joint Multinational Training Group-Ukraine issued the attached statement, saying someone posing as the commander "attempted to discredit the mission and the armed forces of Ukraine".

Hmmm ....


----------



## PuckChaser (29 Aug 2019)

Clearly that guy didn't train Afghans, or any other indigenous force ever. I wonder if he thought that his blog wouldn't be used as propaganda in a theatre that's probably the most active for Information Operations save for an actual shooting war between the west and Russia? Probably the fastest way to build trust with your partner force is to publicly slag them.  :facepalm:


----------



## The Bread Guy (29 Aug 2019)

PuckChaser said:
			
		

> … Probably the fastest way to build trust with your partner force is to publicly slag them.  :facepalm:


True dat.  Part of me thinks it's a bit of long-game disinfo (although if the person attributed to the posts knew he wasn't posting them, I suspect he'd have spoken up sooner - as of this post, the naughty blog post is still up), part of me thinks it might be a one-time one-post hijack of the page, and part of me actually thinks it might be one opinionated MF'er.  That's the beauty of good disinfo, I guess #OnlyHaveToRaiseDoubt


----------



## Jarnhamar (29 Aug 2019)

[quote author=PuckChaser]Probably the fastest way to build trust with your partner force is to publicly slag them.  :facepalm:
[/quote]
Trust is fickle. They want money and kit.


----------



## Eye In The Sky (29 Aug 2019)

Jarnhamar said:
			
		

> Trust is fickle. They want money and kit.



So...just like us then.   ;D


----------



## The Bread Guy (29 Aug 2019)

Another intriguing bit of info -- although the personal blog posts go back to January 2019, the personal profile shows someone by the right name has only been on Blogger since August of this year.

Hmmm ...


----------



## Humphrey Bogart (29 Aug 2019)

It is fake, read some of the commentary from the Ukrainians.  A bunch of them laughed and called it fake.


----------



## Blackadder1916 (2 Sep 2019)

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> . . .  That's the beauty of good disinfo, I guess #OnlyHaveToRaiseDoubt



Other characteristics of good disinformation/mal-information is amplification and repetition.  While a disinfo campaign may initiate the "fake news" and disseminate it, the ideal outcome is for the nugget to be picked up and repeated by the media (of the professional press or the social variety).  Not only does it add layers of separation from the originator, even if the repetition is accompanied by an analysis (hopefully that refutes the item) there will always be a percentage of viewers who accept the original story at face value (because of their own biases) or, more commonly, will read a portion of the repeated item and then, because of a poor attention span, not continue to dissect the item with a critical analysis.

I think that we here may have fallen into the trap (or I may nearly have, at least).  Army.ca (and its lesser service variations on a name  ;D ) is a somewhat respected site known for sometimes providing a reasonable analysis of military and political issues.  Yes, there are disagreements amongst us usual suspects, more commonly in the political threads, but most of the participants recognize the world for what it is, warts and all.  There is a danger that by quoting a "possible disinfo item" in its entirety, we assist our adversaries, especially if the bulk of the analysis refuting the item is primarily links.  I'll admit that I read through the quoted blog and thought "holy frig", and reverting to my Cold Warrior bias about former enemies was nearly ready to move on without thought about the quality of our new allies.  Thankfully, I didn't.

But not everyone who visits this site participates to the same level.  A lot quickly scan posts for a few seconds to see if anything interests then, with the possibility that their takeaway will be "I saw that on Army.ca, so it must be true".


----------



## The Bread Guy (2 Sep 2019)

Blackadder1916 said:
			
		

> ... there will always be a percentage of viewers who accept the original story at face value (because of their own biases) or, more commonly, will read a portion of the repeated item and then, because of a poor attention span, not continue to dissect the item with a critical analysis ... not everyone who visits this site participates to the same level.  A lot quickly scan posts for a few seconds to see if anything interests then, with the possibility that their takeaway will be "I saw that on Army.ca, so it must be true".


You're right - and this can also be said about all social media out there.  Biggest difference here, though, is I tend to trust the participant back-and-forth here to get "the rest of the story" _*WAY*_ more than I do on other social media, hence the sharing.  

To use another example, in spite of regular posts highlighting false Taliban claims of Canadian casualties during the Afghan war here, I don't think tooooooo many folks thought, "I saw it on Army.ca, so it MUST be true"  ;D


----------



## oceanographer (10 Oct 2019)

It seems there are some quite interesting characters with US military background that were involved in the fighting over there:

https://www.rferl.org/a/u-s-soldier-wanted-for-florida-killings-released-from-ukrainian-jail/30189764.html

As far as I know RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty is considered a reliable source (RFE/RL is registered with the IRS as a private, nonprofit Sec. 501(c)3 corporation, and is funded by a grant from the U.S. Congress through the United States Agency for Global Media (USAGM) as a private grantee).



> *Former U.S. Soldier Wanted For Florida Killings Released From Ukrainian Jail*
> 
> KYIV -- A former U.S. Army soldier who is wanted for a double murder in Florida has been released from a Ukrainian jail, his lawyer said amid uncertainty over whether the United States will seek his extradition.
> 
> ...


----------



## The Bread Guy (14 Oct 2019)

New boss takes over - this via UKR's MoD ...


> On October 11, transfer of command of the UNIFIER mission was held at the International Peacekeeping and Security Center. This mission aimed at the training of the Ukrainian Armed Forces units within the Joint Multinational Training Group — Ukraine (JMTGU).
> 
> The ceremony was attended by Deputy Chief of Staff for Planning of the Joint Operational Command of Canada Brigadier General Simon Bernard, Honorary Consul of Canada in Lviv Oxana Vinnytska-Yusypovych, Defense Attaché at the Canadian Embassy in Ukraine Colonel Robert Foster, servicemen and women of the training mission.
> 
> ...


Attached pix also from UKR's MoD.


----------



## daftandbarmy (14 Oct 2019)

Blackadder1916 said:
			
		

> Other characteristics of good disinformation/mal-information is amplification and repetition.  While a disinfo campaign may initiate the "fake news" and disseminate it, the ideal outcome is for the nugget to be picked up and repeated by the media (of the professional press or the social variety).



'A lie told once remains a lie, but a lie told a thousand times becomes the truth.' Josef Goebbels


----------



## The Bread Guy (14 Oct 2019)

daftandbarmy said:
			
		

> 'A lie told once remains a lie, but a lie told a thousand times becomes the truth.' Josef Goebbels


_"Falsehood will fly, as it were, on the wings of the wind, and carry its tales to every corner of the earth; whilst truth lags behind; her steps, though sure, are slow and solemn, and she has neither vigour nor activity enough to pursue and overtake her enemy."_  Thomas Francklin, 1787


----------



## The Bread Guy (1 Nov 2019)

One suggestion ...


> Asking Canada to lead a peacekeeping mission in war-torn, separatist-minded eastern districts of Ukraine would be "Plan B" for the recently elected government of President Volodymyr Zelensky, the country's deputy foreign minister said Thursday.
> 
> Vasyl Bodnar is in Ottawa for meetings to shore up support among allies and to keep their focus on the bloody, five-year-old conflict which has claimed over 13,000 lives.
> 
> ...


The latest from the OSCE about why peacekeepers won't work right now ...


> Special Representative of the OSCE Chairperson-in-Office in Ukraine and in the Trilateral Contact Group, Ambassador Martin Sajdik says that deploying a United Nations peacekeeping mission in Donbas, eastern Ukraine, is not realistic at the moment.
> 
> "I would not say it is realistic at the moment. Deploying peacekeepers is possible if the parties agree. UN peacekeepers cannot be in Donbas without the common consent," he told the Ukrainian internet TV Ukrlife. "We need a decision by the UN Security Council. And we all know who is a member of the Security Council [Russia is a permanent member of the UN Security Council]. Therefore, the common consent is a prerequisite." ...



*** - This, from this past summer:  _"... a Conservative government under Andrew Scheer will advocate for, and lead, a peacekeeping mission along the Ukraine-Russia border ..."_, and this from the platform:  _"... Andrew Scheer will also push for Canadian leadership in a United Nations peacekeeping mission to secure the borders of Ukraine, which has faced armed aggression and the seizure of its territory by Russia since 2014. This mission would allow Ukraine to restore control over their eastern border ..."_


----------



## Retired AF Guy (5 Nov 2019)

Not military related, but the Kyiv Post has an writeup on Canada's new Ambassador to Ukraine.



> Larisa Galadza is new ambassador of Canada to Ukraine
> 
> By Olena Goncharova. Published Nov. 5. Updated Nov. 5 at 7:47 am
> 
> ...



 Article Link


----------



## The Bread Guy (5 Nov 2019)

Retired AF Guy said:
			
		

> Not military related, but the Kyiv Post has an writeup on Canada's new Ambassador to Ukraine.
> 
> Article Link


Good catch - here's the new Ambassador's bio via the Global Affairs info-machine ...


> *Larisa Galadza* (BA Hons [Political Science and Ethics], Trinity College at the University of Toronto, 1994; MA [International Affairs], Carleton University, 1996) joined the Department of National Defence in 1996. She worked in policy-related positions at the Privy Council Office in 2001 and at the Treasury Board Secretariat from 2003 to 2006, before moving to Public Safety Canada, where she was director of Strategic Policy and Research and then senior director for National Security Policy. From 2012 to 2014, she served at the Privy Council Office as director of operations for the Social Affairs Committee of Cabinet, and then, from 2014 to 2016, she was director general of Admissibility at Citizenship and Immigration Canada. In 2016, she became director general of the Peace and Stabilization Operations Program at Global Affairs Canada.


----------



## The Bread Guy (5 Nov 2019)

And on a more military note ...


> Ukrainian Deputy Foreign Minister Vasyl Bodnar said in an interview with Ukrinform news outlet that Ottawa and Kyiv are finalizing documents for the shipment of the Canadian sniper rifles to Ukraine.
> 
> "The processing of documents for the supply of sniper rifles is in the final stage. The delay was not from the Canadian side, but from the partners supplying the components. We hope, in the next few days or weeks, these weapons will be in Ukraine. It will also help open the doors for further cooperation between the two countries," said Bodnar.
> 
> ...


The Ukrainian media piece cited in this article (in Ukrainian) also mentions Op UNIFIER - this, via Google Translate - edited to add *highlights*:


> ... Q)  For four years now, the Canadian military training mission UNIFIER has been operating in Ukraine. What changes do you think Ukraine should make?
> 
> A) The program has justified itself, it has allowed to qualitatively train about 14 thousand Ukrainian servicemen. The feedback from both the Armed Forces and the NSU is very positive, so our main request is to continue the mission, but it has already been completed (Canada last year continued its mission until 2022 - ed.). *This week, one of Canada's deputy foreign ministers will visit mission members in Ukraine and talk about possible changes. For our part, I can say that the request to change the format of the operation did not come from the Armed Forces or from the NSU* ...


If your Ukrainian's better than mine (and it can ONLY be better), here's the original text - any nuance sharing appreciated ...


> ... - В Україні вже чотири роки діє канадська військова тренувальна місія UNIFIER. Які зміни, на думку України, у неї варто внести?
> 
> - Програма себе виправдала, вона дала змогу якісно навчити близько 14 тисяч українських військовослужбовців. Відгуки як від ЗСУ, так і від НГУ надходять дуже позитивні, тож наразі основне наше прохання – продовжити місію, але воно вже виконане (Канада минулого року продовжила місію до 2022 року – ред.). *Цього тижня один із заступників міністра закордонних справ Канади відвідуватиме учасників місії в Україні та предметно говоритиме про можливі зміни. З нашого боку можу сказати, що запиту на зміну формату операції не надходило ні від ЗСУ, ні від НГУ* ...


Wonder what changes _may_ be coming, then? op:


----------



## The Bread Guy (28 Nov 2019)

RCN, UK RN working with UKR forces - from the UKR MoD info-machine ...


> On November 26, a meeting was held in Odessa between representatives of the Ukrainian Navy Command, UK operation ORBITAL and Canadian operation UNIFIER. The Ukrainian side was represented by a delegation led by the Lieutenant Commander Kostiantyn Plakhotniuk.
> 
> The purpose of the visit was to discuss criteria for the training of the Ukrainian Navy personnel, as well as the directions of further assistance by the instructors from UK and Canada.
> 
> ...


More here


> Scientific and methodological training according to the program of international military cooperation within operation “ORBITAL” took place in the Ukrainian Navy Command. Classes were held in two groups. The first was to study logistics, and the second was to conduct practical navigation lessons directly on the navigation bridge of the frigate Hetman Sahaidachnyi. During the practical training, the senior assistant commander of the frigate briefed on how the navigation service on the ship is organized and how to model combat situations during the training of the personnel.
> 
> Our foreign colleagues spoke about peculiarities of the management and logistics structure of the Navies of the United Kingdom and Canada.
> 
> — Three areas of cooperation with our international partners have already been agreed. These are the training of the Navy Command for planning C2 and logistics process, and for naval personnel — the organization of navigation courses. The training is based on standards that are effectively used in NATO member states. The experience of our partners is especially important and relevant today, as the main task of the Ukrainian Navy is to prevent the military aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine in the waters of the Black and Azov Seas, — noted a representative of the Naval Command of the Ukrainian Navy.


More here

Attached photos also via the UKR info-machine


----------



## The Bread Guy (15 Dec 2019)

More talk of peacekeepers still being considered as an option if peace talks head south ...

_*“Ukrainian Foreign Minister: Kyiv will demand that peacekeepers be deployed in Donbas if Minsk Agreements fail”*_  (UKR media)
_*“Ukraine may revisit idea of peacekeepers in Donbas, foreign minister says …”*_ (UKR media)
_*“Kiev has not put forward new initiatives on UN mission in Donbass – Kremlin”*_ (RUS state media)
_*“Kiev once more eyes possibility of UN mission deployment in Donbass”*_ (RUS state media)
And how are the Russian-backed rebels feeling about handing control of the border with Russia back to Ukraine?_*“Kiev shall not regain border control ignoring Minsk Agreements – Pushilin”*_ (pro-RUS rebel info-machine - but links to archive.org copy of article so you don't have to link to the rebel site itself)


----------



## The Bread Guy (17 Dec 2019)

Via the UKR MoD info-machine - original in Ukrainian, quoted text via Google Translate...


> *The Armed Forces of Ukraine and Canada are not just partners but allies*
> 4 hours ago | ID: 54720
> 
> This was emphasized by Deputy Chief of General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Lieutenant General Sergey Nayev during a working meeting with the Canadian delegation led by Deputy Minister of National Defense of Canada Peter Hammerschmidt, held at the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine today, December 17.
> ...


----------



## The Bread Guy (17 Dec 2019)

And a bit more from the UKR MoD info-machine - original in Ukrainian, translation below via Google Translate ...


> *Defense Departments of Ukraine and Canada specify main directions of bilateral cooperation development*
> 6 hours ago | ID: 54719
> 
> Today, on December 17, Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine Alina Frolova and Alexander Polishchuk met with Deputy Minister of National Defense of Canada (for Political Affairs) Peter Hammerschmidt.
> ...


----------



## The Bread Guy (19 Dec 2019)

More from UKR's MoD on a Canadian delegation visit, this time closer to the front lines - original in Ukrainian, translation below via Google Translate ...


> *A delegation from the Ministry of National Defense of Canada visited the area of ​​the (Joint Forces Operation)*
> _Yesterday at 9:11 am | ID: 54750_
> 
> The Delegation of the Ministry of National Defense of Canada, headed by the Deputy Minister*** of National Defense of Canada (for Political Affairs), Mr Peter Hammerschmidt, visited the Joint Forces Operation Area.
> ...


*** - While translated as DM, he's actually the Assistant Deputy Minister (Policy) @ DND


----------



## The Bread Guy (6 Feb 2020)

Canada's ambassador drops by (via the UKR MoD info-machine):


> *JFO Commander held a meeting with the Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Canada to Ukraine*
> 2020-02-05 13:30:00 | ID: 55557
> 
> February 4, Commander of the Joint Forces operation Lt. Gen. Volodymyr Kravchenko held a meeting with the Canadian delegation led by the Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Canada to Ukraine Larisa Galadza.
> ...


Photos:  UKR MoD


----------



## The Bread Guy (13 Feb 2020)

The DefMin's meet (via UKR MoD info-machine):


> February 13, as part of a working visit to NATO Headquarters in Brussels, Ukrainian Defense Minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk held a bilateral meeting with Canadian Minister of National Defense Harjit Singh Sajjan.
> 
> The parties stressed the continuation of long-standing friendships and partnerships between the countries. Andriy Zagorodnyuk thanked his Canadian counterpart for comprehensive support for Ukraine in different areas, including for facilitation in multilateral QUINT format meetings with the heads of defense agencies of Great Britain, Canada, Poland, Lithuania and the United States, which took place yesterday.
> 
> ...


----------



## The Bread Guy (27 Mar 2020)

COVID effects on deployment ...


> The Canadian Armed Forces plans to withdraw the 200 troops it currently has in Ukraine and replace them with a skeleton force next month, to hold the fort until the COVID-19 pandemic has passed.
> 
> That means the soldiers will be returning to Canada as scheduled, though there was no immediate word on what quarantine restrictions they will be under, including whether they will be allowed to stay in their homes or barracks.
> 
> ...


----------



## The Bread Guy (22 Nov 2021)

UKR asking CAN for more help ....


> A senior Ukrainian government official is urging Canada to bolster its support for the eastern European country as it faces a renewed threat from Russian forces along its border.
> 
> Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defence Council, said on Sunday the country requires additional assistance to defend itself as Russia masses troops and military equipment near Ukraine.
> 
> ...


Also interestingly mentioned in this Canadian Press report ...


> ... Potentially complicating Canada’s ongoing operations in Ukraine is a recent report that found far-right radicals in the Ukrainian army boasted on social media that they received training from the Canadian Armed Forces.
> 
> The study by George Washington University in Washington, D.C., found that members of Centuria have accessed training from Canada, among other NATO countries, and taken part in joint military exercises.
> 
> Centuria is a group that holds ties to far-right movements, venerates Nazi figures and aims to protect what it calls Europe’s “ethnic identity,” according to the report from the Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies ...


More on this from last month ....


> The Defence Department is vowing to review how the military screens for extremist views in the foreign troops it trains.
> 
> The move comes after a report found that far-right extremists in the Ukrainian military bragged on social media that they received training from the Canadian Armed Forces and took part in joint exercises.
> 
> ...


Full study (93 pg PDF) downloadable here.

Given the history of various militias (including right-wing ones) helping save Ukraine's bacon in 2014, not surprising to find sympathizers in the Ukrainian military, or trained and then out.


----------



## The Bread Guy (25 Nov 2021)

F-18's headed to E.Europe?  This from the Globe (archived here):


> Canada is considering bolstering its military mission to Ukraine, amid a debate over whether additional NATO forces would deter Russian President Vladimir Putin from further aggression against his country’s neighbour.
> 
> Two sources with knowledge of the deliberations said Defence Minister Anita Anand is considering deploying hundreds of additional troops to support the Canadian soldiers already in Ukraine on a training mission. Other options being looked at include moving a warship into the Black Sea, or redeploying some of the CF-18 fighter jets based in Romania ...


----------



## CBH99 (25 Nov 2021)

The Bread Guy said:


> UKR asking CAN for more help ....
> 
> Also interestingly mentioned in this Canadian Press report ...
> 
> ...


DND can do absolutely nothing about this issue, and it isn’t on us anyway.  

DND/CAF are in Ukraine as part of a training mission, to assist in the training of Ukrainian troops.  Who the Ukraine recruits and how stringent the application process is for people to get in is entirely on them.  


0.02


----------



## CBH99 (25 Nov 2021)

The Bread Guy said:


> F-18's headed to E.Europe?  This from the Globe (archived here):


Does this count as ‘pulling our weight’ more?  🤷🏼‍♂️

Parking a warship in the Black Sea isn’t deterring against unprovoked aggression.  It’s Russia’s backyard.  It is a good way to escalate things on the military side though…


The CF-18’s in Romania are already performing the NATO Air Policing mission, assisting the Romanian Air Force to assert control over their airspace.  

They are ‘pulling their weight’ as if they don’t do it, someone else in NATO has to.  (Hence why the mission rotates among countries.)

Although flying around in Ukrainian air space to show support for the mission & reinforce the Ukrainian Air Force may be a more useful mission for them, from a political perspective.  

Either way, they are asserting control of the airspace over a friendly country to deter aggression.  I don’t think Romania is in Mr. Putin’s bad books though…


----------



## daftandbarmy (25 Nov 2021)

CBH99 said:


> DND can do absolutely nothing about this issue, and it isn’t on us anyway.
> 
> DND/CAF are in Ukraine as part of a training mission, to assist in the training of Ukrainian troops.  Who the Ukraine recruits and how stringent the application process is for people to get in is entirely on them.
> 
> ...



And we're really good at rapidly and efficiently extracting large number of nationals, and other friendlies, from failed states collapsing due to an invasion, right?


----------



## The Bread Guy (25 Nov 2021)

daftandbarmy said:


> And we're really good at rapidly and efficiently extracting large number of nationals, and other friendlies, from failed states collapsing due to an invasion, right?


If Russian push came to Russian shove in that part of the world, I'm going to guess there would be a significant number of Ukrainian-Canadians in Ukraine wanting to get back to someplace less ... Russian-y pretty quick.


----------



## MilEME09 (4 Dec 2021)

The Bread Guy said:


> If Russian push came to Russian shove in that part of the world, I'm going to guess there would be a significant number of Ukrainian-Canadians in Ukraine wanting to get back to someplace less ... Russian-y pretty quick.


Don't discount the opposite possibility, Ukrainian-Canadians going back to help their homeland. We have the largest Ukrainian population outside of Ukraine, I my self are a descendant of Ukrainian immigrants. That alone can carry a lot of weight to try and push our government to do more.


----------



## The Bread Guy (4 Dec 2021)

MilEME09 said:


> Don't discount the opposite possibility, Ukrainian-Canadians going back to help their homeland. We have the largest Ukrainian population outside of Ukraine, I my self are a descendant of Ukrainian immigrants. That alone can carry a lot of weight to try and push our government to do more.


Big groups of like-minded people _could_, indeed, twist Canadian arms on responding, but as others have said elsewhere, would Canada be able to do anything alone?  

During Yugo, I saw not toooooooo many nationals from all sides heading back to the Old Country to help (mostly Croats from where I live) - you think many of UKR heritage would go back to fight the fight?  I know we have a lot of Ukrainians here, but I only know of one who went back since 2014 (he was more interested in the political fight there than the military fight).


----------



## Ostrozac (4 Dec 2021)

MilEME09 said:


> We have the largest Ukrainian population outside of Ukraine,


Second largest. The largest Ukrainian population outside of Ukraine is of course located within their neighbour and largest trading partner, Russia.






						Ukrainians in Russia - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## MilEME09 (4 Dec 2021)

Russia Ukraine: Biden warns Russia against Ukraine 'red lines'
					

Intelligence officials fear Russia could invade Ukraine as soon as early 2022, US media reports.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				




A multi-front offensive against Ukraine from 3 directions is a possibility. Ukraine isn't a NATO member and Russia will do everything to prevent that from happening. So unless NATO pulls some shady deal to absorb Ukraine quickly and we just wake up and they are NATO, Putting would move in to prevent membership.


----------



## Altair (4 Dec 2021)

MilEME09 said:


> Russia Ukraine: Biden warns Russia against Ukraine 'red lines'
> 
> 
> Intelligence officials fear Russia could invade Ukraine as soon as early 2022, US media reports.
> ...


Unpopular opinion, but here it is. 

If Ukraine was in NATO on Monday and invaded by Thursday, NATO isn't doing squat, member or not.


----------



## suffolkowner (4 Dec 2021)

Altair said:


> Unpopular opinion, but here it is.
> 
> If Ukraine was in NATO on Monday and invaded by Thursday, NATO isn't doing squat, member or not.



That would be a horrible message to send to Putin


----------



## Altair (4 Dec 2021)

suffolkowner said:


> That would be a horrible message to send to Putin


I agree, but who has the stomach for the potential of 10s of thousands of dead over Ukraine? 

NATO would dither, talk about sanctions, write strongly worded letters, grandstand in the UN, and meanwhile Russian tanks are on the road to Kiev. 

Not a one would lift a finger. Crimea, Hong Kong, Georgia, the west has shown its true colours. We survive with the threat that we would do something, but I'm afraid if anyone calls our bluff we would fold.


----------



## suffolkowner (4 Dec 2021)

Altair said:


> I agree, but who has the stomach for the potential of 10s of thousands of dead over Ukraine?
> 
> NATO would dither, talk about sanctions, write strongly worded letters, grandstand in the UN, and meanwhile Russian tanks are on the road to Kiev.
> 
> Not a one would lift a finger. Crimea, Hong Kong, Georgia, the west has shown its true colours. We survive with the threat that we would do something, but I'm afraid if anyone calls our bluff we would fold.


before or after NATO membership is the key. Ukraine is not a NATO member, neither is Georgia. Hong Kong is part of the PRC unlike Taiwan. If Ukraine was a NATO member and there was no real response what would stand in the way of Putin's takeover of the Baltics. The alliance would be useless.


----------



## Altair (4 Dec 2021)

suffolkowner said:


> before or after NATO membership is the key. Ukraine is not a NATO member, neither is Georgia. Hong Kong is part of the PRC unlike Taiwan.


Ukraine had security assurances for giving up their nukes, those have been ignored as Russia invaded the Crimea, and had Russian backed separatists take over the Donbass. 

Hong Kong had British backing of democracy for 50 years that ended 20 years early, the west didn't do a thing. 

The word of the West means nothing, not worth the paper its written on, and NATO, for all its bluster, is just a commitment of collective defense. 

If the West and NATO were not willing to stand up to Russia and China over a commitment to Ukraine and Hong Kong, the calculus is what is the chance they stand up to Russia over article 5?


suffolkowner said:


> If Ukraine was a NATO member and there was no real response what would stand in the way of Putin's takeover of the Baltics. The alliance would be useless.


It would be. 

This is why Ukraine will never be allowed into NATO, it would lay that bear for all to see.


----------



## MilEME09 (4 Dec 2021)

Same thing with Georgia, the moment Russia knows we won't respond, the Baltics are done, with others to follow. The west doesn't have a back bone, and our armies are no longer set up for a protracted near peer conflict.


----------



## suffolkowner (4 Dec 2021)

Altair said:


> Ukraine had security assurances for giving up their nukes, those have been ignored as Russia invaded the Crimea, and had Russian backed separatists take over the Donbass.
> 
> Hong Kong had British backing of democracy for 50 years that ended 20 years early, the west didn't do a thing.
> 
> ...


so what differentiates Ukraine from any of the former east bloc countries?

I don't see Hong Kong and what has gone on in Ukraine up to now as equivalent to a NATO article 5

Has NATO been too soft on Russia? Yes, but better late than never, plus the US likes to arrive late to wars in Europe. The US has 50,000 personel in Europe at present. I can't see Russia being able to swallow Ukraine, just western material support should be enough to bleed Russia. Stronger support and signals to Russia are what are needed to avoid this going hot


----------



## MilEME09 (4 Dec 2021)

suffolkowner said:


> so what differentiates Ukraine from any of the former east bloc countries?
> 
> I don't see Hong Kong and what has gone on in Ukraine up to now as equivalent to a NATO article 5
> 
> Has NATO been too soft on Russia? Yes, but better late than never, plus the US likes to arrive late to wars in Europe. The US has 50,000 personel in Europe at present. I can't see Russia being able to swallow Ukraine, just western material support should be enough to bleed Russia. Stronger support and signals to Russia are what are needed to avoid this going hot


One of the biggest areas of weakness in Donna's for the Ukrainians is EW, especially assets to counter the heavy AA Russia has placed in the region. If they had good SEAD assets to reclaim the skies, they could put the separatists on the back foot


----------



## rnkelly (4 Dec 2021)

Honest question. How does Chrystia play into this as far as Canada is concerned?


----------



## MilEME09 (5 Dec 2021)

How real is the threat of a Russian invasion of Ukraine?
					

Experts are divided on whether Moscow is planning an imminent incursion, or merely posturing to win geopolitical sway.




					www.aljazeera.com
				




another angle on it all


----------



## The Bread Guy (5 Dec 2021)

Altair said:


> *Ukraine had security assurances for giving up their nukes*, those have been ignored as Russia invaded the Crimea, and had Russian backed separatists take over the Donbass ...


27 years ago today, in fact ....



suffolkowner said:


> so what differentiates Ukraine from any of the former east bloc countries?


THAT's the question Baltic countries & Poland may be asking themselves at times like this when Russia gets antsy.


----------



## Good2Golf (5 Dec 2021)

rnkelly said:


> Honest question. How does Chrystia play into this as far as Canada is concerned?


I think she’s leaving it to PMJT’s close friend…


----------



## Edward Campbell (5 Dec 2021)

There's a good article in *Foreign Affairs* (Jan/Feb 2020) which says, "*that Ukraine is at the center of this storm should not be surprising at all. Over the past quarter century, nearly all major efforts at establishing a durable post–Cold War order on the Eurasian continent have foundered on the shoals of Ukraine. For it is in Ukraine that the disconnect between triumphalist end-of-history delusions and the ongoing realities of great-power competition can be seen in its starkest form* ... [because] ... *To most American policymakers, Ukraine has represented a brave young country—one that, despite the burden of history, successfully launched itself on a path of democratic development as part of a new world order after the fall of the Berlin Wall. To the Kremlin, meanwhile, it has remained an indispensable part of a long-standing sphere of influence, one that operates largely according to old rules of power. The difference between these two views goes a long way toward explaining why post–Cold War hopes have given way to the strife and uncertainty of the world today.*"

Further, the authors say, "*U.S. and other Western policymakers have long skirted hard questions about both Ukraine’s place in the Eurasian order and its role in the fraught relationship between Washington and Moscow. Although the end of the Cold War may have marked the end of one geopolitical competition, it did not mark the end of geopolitics. Nor did the dissolution of the Soviet Union mean the disappearance of Russian anxieties, ambitions, and abilities. The Soviet Union may have ceased to exist on paper in December 1991, but its influence did not. Empires do not simply vanish. They die long and messy deaths, denying their decline when they can, conceding their dominions when they must, and launching irredentist actions wherever they sense an opening. And nowhere are the consequences of the still ongoing Soviet collapse clearer than in Ukraine—a country that has wrecked attempt after attempt at establishing a durable order on the Eurasian continent.*"

"*Meanwhile,*" the authors concluded, almost two years ago: "*the question of Ukrainian security remains open. The past decades have made clear that as long as Ukraine’s status is unsettled and insecure, the consequences will continue to reverberate beyond its borders. Washington believed that it could ensure Ukraine’s control over its own destiny without major effort and at low cost. The reality is that it could not. What is worse, the best means for promoting Ukrainian security are in the rearview mirror. Expanding NATO to include Ukraine now would most likely result in more, not less, conflict with Russia. Washington’s best option at this point is to strengthen its bilateral political and security ties with Ukraine while working closely with its European allies to ensure Ukraine’s ability to protect its sovereignty.*"


----------



## Czech_pivo (5 Dec 2021)

Altair said:


> Unpopular opinion, but here it is.
> 
> If Ukraine was in NATO on Monday and invaded by Thursday, NATO isn't doing squat, member or not.


I disagree.
The current, nationalist, government in Poland would not sit by and allow the Russians to take over Lwow and Tarnopol. They would go into eastern Galicia.


----------



## Czech_pivo (5 Dec 2021)

Czech_pivo said:


> I disagree.
> The current, nationalist, government in Poland would not sit by and allow the Russians to take over Lwow and Tarnopol. They would go into eastern





Czech_pivo said:


> I disagree.
> The current, nationalist, government in Poland would not sit by and allow the Russians to take over Lwow and Tarnopol. They would go into eastern Galicia.


Spend some time and look at who the current Polish leader is, and more importantly, who is twin brother was and how he and 95 others died.









						Jarosław Kaczyński - Wikipedia
					






					en.m.wikipedia.org
				











						Lech Kaczyński - Wikipedia
					






					en.m.wikipedia.org
				




Poles hate Russians, almost as much as they hate Germans. The Poles are still willingly to go toe to toe against the Russians. Numbers don’t mean a lot to them, it’s about honour, history and religion and the belief that they are on the right side.


----------



## Altair (5 Dec 2021)

Czech_pivo said:


> I disagree.
> The current, nationalist, government in Poland would not sit by and allow the Russians to take over Lwow and Tarnopol. They would go into eastern Galicia.


Poland had war games recently that needed to be ended early due to how badly they were doing.









						In Poland, the simulation of the Russian invasion turns into a fiasco - Archyde
					

The defeat would have been even more bitter than the lightning invasion of 1939 by Germany, if the military deployment had not been a simple exercise, intended to test the capacity of the Polish army to resist external aggression of the Russia. The operation, simulated along the eastern border...




					www.archyde.com
				




In Poland, the simulation of the Russian invasion turns into a fiasco​


> The defeat would have been even more bitter than the lightning invasion of 1939 by Germany, if the military deployment had not been a simple exercise, intended to test the capacity of the Polish army to resist external aggression of the Russia. The operation, simulated along the eastern border of Poland, consisted of holding the lines of defense for a period of at least 22 days.But these great maneuvers, entitled_ «Winter 20»_ (Winter 2020), obviously ended in a fiasco. At the end of this virtual war, the Russians had reached the banks of the Vistula, and besieged Warsaw in just four days, reveal several news sites, such as Interia, while this kind of training is in principle ultra-confidential.



They are not going to expose themselves in Ukraine.


----------



## daftandbarmy (5 Dec 2021)

Czech_pivo said:


> Spend some time and look at who the current Polish leader is, and more importantly, who is twin brother was and how he and 95 others died.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



It's also about geography, which is not in their favour as they are, essentially, 'Europe's Bowling Alley'.


Poland's Elusive Security​Poland has two strategic problems. The first problem is its geography. The Carpathian Mountains and the Tatra Mountains provide some security to Poland's south. But the lands to the east, west and southwest are flat plains with only rivers that provide limited protection. This plain was the natural line of attack of great powers, including Napoleonic France and Nazi Germany.









						Poland's Strategy
					

For Poland, geopolitics is an existential issue.




					worldview.stratfor.com


----------



## Czech_pivo (5 Dec 2021)

daftandbarmy said:


> It's also about geography, which is not in their favour as they are, essentially, 'Europe's Bowling Alley'.
> 
> 
> Poland's Elusive Security​Poland has two strategic problems. The first problem is its geography. The Carpathian Mountains and the Tatra Mountains provide some security to Poland's south. But the lands to the east, west and southwest are flat plains with only rivers that provide limited protection. This plain was the natural line of attack of great powers, including Napoleonic France and Nazi Germany.
> ...


Guys, they simply don’t care.
If the Ukraine is going to go under, the Poles will go for broke and look to take back eastern Galicia. 
It’s a small enough piece that they could take and hold within a matter of hours. They, the Slovaks, the Hungarians and the Romanians don’t want a common border with a larger Russia. The others won’t won’t do much about this, but the Poles, with his current government, will do so.


----------



## Altair (5 Dec 2021)

Czech_pivo said:


> Guys, they simply don’t care.
> If the Ukraine is going to go under, the Poles will go for broke and look to take back eastern Galicia.
> It’s a small enough piece that they could take and hold within a matter of hours. They, the Slovaks, the Hungarians and the Romanians don’t want a common border with a larger Russia. The others won’t won’t do much about this, but the Poles, with his current government, will do so.


If their military exercises show that the Russians will be at Warsaw in 4 days, I  don't want to know how fast the Russians take Galicia from them.

And with Poland going outside their borders, I think NATO uses that as the reason to leave Poland out to dry in the attempt.


----------



## FJAG (5 Dec 2021)

Edward Campbell said:


> ... irredentist actions ...


Can't believe that I've never heard   of this word before considering how relevant it is to so many scenarios we've been facing for so long.


----------



## Czech_pivo (5 Dec 2021)

Altair said:


> If their military exercises show that the Russians will be at Warsaw in 4 days, I  don't want to know how fast the Russians take Galicia from them.
> 
> And with Poland going outside their borders, I think NATO uses that as the reason to leave Poland out to dry in the attempt.


There are many ways that the Poles can spin this.
First off, they can say that they were simply pushing a force into eastern Galicia to support the existing CDN/US troops already based there on their current training mission with the Ukrainians. Pushing into Lwow could be construed as taking/holding the airport there as a means to extract said CDN/US troops. 
The Ukraine is a vast West-East country and Russia coming in from the eat with only 100k troops would find it close to impossible to take and hold all of the country. 
The further west they go, the more stretched their supply lines become.
If a single troops crosses the Belarus frontier this would expand the boundaries and lessen the Russians angle of it being only a Russia/Ukraine issue.


----------



## Edward Campbell (5 Dec 2021)

FJAG said:


> Can't believe that I've never heard   of this word before considering how relevant it is to so many scenarios we've been facing for so long.


You could, quite fairly, _I think_, argue that French irredentism after 1870 was the proximate cause of the First World War (20 million dead) and, therefore, of the second (75 million dead), also, and albeit rather indirectly of the Russian Revolution (10 million dead) and Stalin's 'Great Terror' (1937) (20 million dead) and, therefore, stretching things just a wee bit, of the Chinese famine of 1959-61, which killed somewhere between 15 (very conservative estimate) and (at the high end) 55 million people, too.


----------



## childs56 (5 Dec 2021)

The whole Eastern front was and still considered the delay line for the main force to ramp up🤫. If they can tie the Russians up for 4 days that allows NATO to mobilize and push back.
in reality I think with a conventional war Russia would stomp over Europe in a matter of days as long as they can keep their supply lines open for their hungry artillery. 
The west has diddled away actual war fighting assets such as area denial weapons in favor of precision guided less collateral damaging gear. 
We need a solid deterrence to Russian rocket systems which have been proven extremely effective in destroying, neutralizing and rendering infective ground forces.  How do we counter that, we get our own large stockpile of similar weapons systems. 

We might have a superior tank, but they have superior artillery and way more tanks,  tank loses to area denial anti tank rockets which they have many of.  
If we want to form a actual deterrence to the Russians we have to equip to actually deter them from moving forward. They have superior artillery/ rocket systems. Their EW is extremely effective, maybe more so than ours. But we rely on our gizmos and gadgets so much now we have lost the art of the basics. Even a basic EW in the area would spell disaster for our forces.  
How many know how to run wire for a phone system, how many know how to and are proficient with a map and compass. How many of our vehicles and their systems run if hit with a EMP and or interference. You can shut down a modern engine with a few electrical pulses.  We in the west rely so heavily on technology to balance the odds that in a perfect war we have stacked the decks against ourselves.


----------



## The Bread Guy (5 Dec 2021)

Czech_pivo said:


> ... If the Ukraine is going to go under, the Poles will go for broke and look to *take back eastern Galicia* ...


To give back to Ukraine, or to keep for themselves as a "been there before, wanna be there again" sort of thing?  😉 



Czech_pivo said:


> ... they can say that they were simply pushing a force into eastern Galicia to support the existing CDN/US troops already based there on their current training mission with the Ukrainians ...


... and to protect Poles in the area (as a potentially nationalist internal narrative I suspect) - sweet irony, given Russia's use of that one.  This narrative could also be handy internally if they wanted to stay in Galicia longer than Ukraine would be comfortable with.

Or maybe I'm too cynical about a part of the world with this much history packed into a relatively small space?

Don't get me wrong - in this scenario, Russia still remains the baddest guy needing to have his nutz kicked hard, no question.  Just thinking about older history potentially rearing its ugly head during a ... hectic time like that would be.


----------



## The Bread Guy (5 Dec 2021)

childs56 said:


> ... in reality I think with a conventional war Russia would stomp over Europe in a matter of days *as long as they can keep their supply lines open* for their hungry artillery ...


Some say that would only be possible if the Russians went in a bit at a time, which would be a different scenario than a steamroller all the way, say, to the Kaliningrad-Poland border (to pick one area of potential Russian interest).


----------



## Weinie (5 Dec 2021)

Czech_pivo said:


> Spend some time and look at who the current Polish leader is, and more importantly, who is twin brother was and how he and 95 others died.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


And if you have spent any time in the Baltic’s,the Estonians hate Russia even more than the Poles do.Estonia would get rolled over pretty quickly, but I think the counter-insurgency that followed would make Grozny look like a picnic.


----------



## Good2Golf (5 Dec 2021)

Weinie said:


> And if you have spent any time in the Baltic’s,the Estonians hate Russia even more than the Poles do.Estonia would get rolled over pretty quickly, but I think the counter-insurgency that followed would make Grozny look like a picnic.


Except Article 5 applies to Estonia…and Latvia.  He and his Belarusian pawn could try to also disrupt through Lithuania.

Vlad’s trying to set up another round of ‘looking after ethnic Russians’, like he did with Round 1 in Crimea (and the Donbas), while everyone was distracted with the Sochi Winter Olympics. 

Bulgaria and Romania mean that he can’t restrict access to the Black Sea, but I think he’s aiming to landlock the remains of the Ukraine by ‘helping ethnic Russians’ as they extend from Donbas to Moldova.


----------



## Colin Parkinson (5 Dec 2021)

Estonia would be a good case for a Maginot Line,  coupled with the natural water obstacles, it would make a quick move very difficult for the Russians.


----------



## Altair (5 Dec 2021)

Good2Golf said:


> Except Article 5 applies to Estonia…and Latvia.  He and his Belarusian pawn could try to also disrupt through Lithuania.
> 
> Vlad’s trying to set up another round of ‘looking after ethnic Russians’, like he did with Round 1 in Crimea (and the Donbas), while everyone was distracted with the Sochi Winter Olympics.
> 
> Bulgaria and Romania mean that he can’t restrict access to the Black Sea, but I think he’s aiming to landlock the remains of the Ukraine by ‘helping ethnic Russians’ as they extend from Donbas to Moldova.


I don't think Putin wants to go that far. Probably just wants a land connection to the Crimea. 

But once bombs bullets and bodies enter the fray, anything can happen. Ukraine could be a harder nut to crack with all the training they have received and equipment. Or Ukraine could collapse and Russia can make additional gains.

The only thing that is clear to me is that whatever happens, Ukraine is on its own.


----------



## suffolkowner (5 Dec 2021)

Weinie said:


> And if you have spent any time in the Baltic’s,the Estonians hate Russia even more than the Poles do.Estonia would get rolled over pretty quickly, but I think the counter-insurgency that followed would make Grozny look like a picnic.



The counter is the key. The Russians may and I stress may be able to gain a lot of ground quickly in Poland and Ukraine, but can they hold it? There will be a huge cost to incure at the same time as the Russian population is already decreasing by close to a million people a year with official numbers saying a thousand a day to Covid alone


----------



## Altair (5 Dec 2021)

suffolkowner said:


> The counter is the key. The Russians may and I stress may be able to gain a lot of ground quickly in Poland and Ukraine, but can they hold it? There will be a huge cost to incure at the same time as the Russian population is already decreasing by close to a million people a year with official numbers saying a thousand a day to Covid alone


With 1 million active duty personnel, 2.5 million in reserve, with a population around 144 million, I cannot imagine them having broader manpower issues for any limited engagement.

If things move past a limited engagement, manpower does become an issue, but more in the nukes flying and nuclear winter kind of way more than any attrition.


----------



## suffolkowner (5 Dec 2021)

Altair said:


> With 1 million active duty personnel, 2.5 million in reserve, with a population around 144 million, I cannot imagine them having broader manpower issues for any limited engagement.
> 
> If things move past a limited engagement, manpower does become an issue, but more in the nukes flying and nuclear winter kind of way more than any attrition.


I wouldn't call an invasion of Ukraine a limited engagement. Ukraine especially needs a little more time to bolster its defence capabilities but is in a much better situation than they were 7 years ago.

For comparison

Poland 160,000 active, 1.7 million reserve, population of 38 million
Ukraine 255,000 active, 900,000 reserve, population of 41 million

Invading Ukraine would be the worst thing Putin could possibly do in every respect. I think he's just playing games (although I wouldn't bet on it and would plan for the worst. It's how he thinks, he values strength and the image of strength and is probably not understanding why these projections and shows of force are not getting him the respect he covets


----------



## Altair (5 Dec 2021)

suffolkowner said:


> I wouldn't call an invasion of Ukraine a limited engagement. Ukraine especially needs a little more time to bolster its defence capabilities but is in a much better situation than they were 7 years ago.
> 
> For comparison
> 
> ...


How many troops can Ukraine shove in between Mariupol and Novooleksiivka without  creating weak points elsewhere? What are the chances little green men distract Ukraine from Moldova and Belarus?

Invading the southern strip of Ukraine could be the worst thing Putin can do if he loses. If he wins, he's likely the best Russian leader since Catherine the great.


----------



## Good2Golf (5 Dec 2021)

Crimea went well, in his eyes. His agents also got away with killing 298 people over the Ukraine skies on Malaysian Airways flight 17, so I think he honestly believes the world will cede to his power.  Who knows.


----------



## suffolkowner (5 Dec 2021)

Altair said:


> How many troops can Ukraine shove in between Mariupol and Novooleksiivka without  creating weak points elsewhere? What are the chances little green men distract Ukraine from Moldova and Belarus?
> 
> Invading the southern strip of Ukraine could be the worst thing Putin can do if he loses. If he wins, he's likely the best Russian leader since Catherine the great.


Between Mariupol Novooleksiivka there's well over 30,000 there right now. With another 30,000 on the north-north-west of the Donbas. It's not like Ukraine really needs to guard its western edge or that Russia can mobilize anywhere close to its million active troops to engage Ukraine

I don't see the win there, Russia will be bled dry trying to maintain or establish some sort of vestige of a *Novorossiya. *This whole endeavour has cost Russia tons.

And yes GtoG, Crimea went very well for Putin and thats the problem the West has to try and take back that inch they gave up before it becomes a mile


----------



## The Bread Guy (5 Dec 2021)

suffolkowner said:


> ... This whole endeavour has cost Russia tons ...


... and, to see the glass 1/2 full, I don't think Russia is keen on taking on more subjects and having to maintain them at the relatively modest level Russian subjects are maintained right now.  

They're already reportedly pumping a lot of $ into the occupied zone, imagine how much more it would be to do that for more area? With more of a mix of subjects who aren't quite as happy with being more Russian to keep a grip on?


----------



## Colin Parkinson (5 Dec 2021)

Regardless of what you think of Putin, Crimea is a masterstroke of softpower and threat. It should be a case study for future up and coming military leaders and diplomats. I personally believe Donbass was an opportunistic gamble to exploit the weak kneed response by Obama, who was a dithering idiot on international relations. Putin is ex-KGB, he studies his opponents and attempts to exploit their weakness. He has succeeded in Georgia, Crimea and Syria, his methods are certainly worthy of study.


----------



## Weinie (5 Dec 2021)

Good2Golf said:


> *Except Article 5 applies to Estonia…and Latvia. * He and his Belarusian pawn could try to also disrupt through Lithuania.
> 
> Vlad’s trying to set up another round of ‘looking after ethnic Russians’, like he did with Round 1 in Crimea (and the Donbas), while everyone was distracted with the Sochi Winter Olympics.
> 
> Bulgaria and Romania mean that he can’t restrict access to the Black Sea, but I think he’s aiming to landlock the remains of the Ukraine by ‘helping ethnic Russians’ as they extend from Donbas to Moldova.


Except would NATO apply Article 5 in Estonia? We talk tough, but I'm not sure. Especially if Russia invaded and then quickly launched a tac nuke weapon somewhere in a field to show their resolve. I put nothing past Putin at this point. He has nothing to lose, except the modicum of influence that he has now. And more U.S. and European sanctions will likely result in the threat of a majority of Europe losing their natural gas. I see him holding the cards on the strat side, how he finesses them will be interesting to see. And Europe is to blame for allowing this to happen.


----------



## YZT580 (5 Dec 2021)

Weinie said:


> Except would NATO apply Article 5 in Estonia? We talk tough, but I'm not sure. Especially if Russia invaded and then quickly launched a tac nuke weapon somewhere in a field to show their resolve. I put nothing past Putin at this point. He has nothing to lose, except the modicum of influence that he has now. And more U.S. and European sanctions will likely result in the threat of a majority of Europe losing their natural gas. I see him holding the cards on the strat side, how he finesses them will be interesting to see. And Europe is to blame for allowing this to happen.


Either they would have to or disband, no other choices


----------



## Good2Golf (5 Dec 2021)

Not sure he wouldn’t use a tac nuke, but that would make him a pariah and screw the Russian people in the mid/long-term.


----------



## Altair (5 Dec 2021)

YZT580 said:


> Either they would have to or disband, no other choices


Not really. NATO would shrink to its natural red line, the Polish Belarus border. 

NATO would fight a war over Poland, as it has been willing to since the last 90 years, but the Baltics? Give NATO the slightest bit of deniability, green men coup or green men popular protests and NATO wont lift a finger.


----------



## Altair (5 Dec 2021)

Good2Golf said:


> Not sure he wouldn’t use a tac nuke, but that would make him a pariah and screw the Russian people in the mid/long-term.


Once the Nuke Genie is out of the lamp, everything is up in the air and nobody can predict what happens. So I agree, it wouldn't happen.


----------



## daftandbarmy (5 Dec 2021)

Altair said:


> Not really. NATO would shrink to its natural red line, the Polish Belarus border.
> 
> NATO would fight a war over Poland, as it has been willing to since the last 90 years, but the Baltics? Give NATO the slightest bit of deniability, green men coup or green men popular protests and NATO wont lift a finger.



Poland is a NATO country. An attack against one is an attack against all.


Statement by the North Atlantic Council on the situation at the Poland-Belarus border​








						Statement by the North Atlantic Council on the situation at the Poland-Belarus border
					






					www.nato.int


----------



## Altair (5 Dec 2021)

daftandbarmy said:


> Poland is a NATO country. An attack against one is an attack against all.
> 
> 
> Statement by the North Atlantic Council on the situation at the Poland-Belarus border​
> ...


I know what it says on paper. 

I have my doubts if that piece of paper is going to have a good chunk of Europe and a good chunk of North America fighting tooth and nail over Estonia.


----------



## suffolkowner (5 Dec 2021)

Altair said:


> Not really. NATO would shrink to its natural red line, the Polish Belarus border.
> 
> NATO would fight a war over Poland, as it has been willing to since the last 90 years, but the Baltics? Give NATO the slightest bit of deniability, green men coup or green men popular protests and NATO wont lift a finger.


90 yrs? Poland joined NATO in 1999

The natural boundries of NATO are limited by its membership. If that were to include Sweden or Finland or Ukraine then so be it. I would think that the former Teutonic states have a pretty good claim to membership.


----------



## suffolkowner (5 Dec 2021)

Altair said:


> I know what it says on paper.
> 
> I have my doubts if that piece of paper is going to have a good chunk of Europe and a good chunk of North America fighting tooth and nail over Estonia.


If Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, and Poland membership isn't worth the paper its written on then god help Bulgaria, Romania etc


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## MilEME09 (5 Dec 2021)

We also need to consider Ukraine has expressed before that it could require nuclear arms given the failure of the US and Russia to honor the treaty that gave them up. If Ukraine required nuclear arms, that would change the calculations. Belarus is also a wild card, if Russia openly invades, troops will strike from the North too. Moldova is friendly, you could see a 4 front war, and while Ukraine has advanced they by no means have all the assets to deal with Russia.

The only way it could get more pear shaped is if while distracted Georgia made a move on its great away regions or something.


----------



## Altair (5 Dec 2021)

suffolkowner said:


> 90 yrs? Poland joined NATO in 1999
> 
> The natural boundries of NATO are limited by its membership. If that were to include Sweden or Finland or Ukraine then so be it. I would think that the former Teutonic states have a pretty good claim to membership.


The last really big fight in that region happened because Germany, Soviet Russia, France and the UK were all willing to fight over Poland, and that hasn't really changed.


----------



## Altair (5 Dec 2021)

suffolkowner said:


> If Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, and Poland membership isn't worth the paper its written on then god help Bulgaria, Romania etc


I think the west defends Poland, Bulgaria and Romania, and to be honest, I think the last two are outside of Russia's natural interests. 

Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia...I have my doubts.


----------



## Altair (5 Dec 2021)

MilEME09 said:


> We also need to consider Ukraine has expressed before that it could require nuclear arms given the failure of the US and Russia to honor the treaty that gave them up. If Ukraine required nuclear arms, that would change the calculations. Belarus is also a wild card, if Russia openly invades, troops will strike from the North too. Moldova is friendly, you could see a 4 front war, and while Ukraine has advanced they by no means have all the assets to deal with Russia.
> 
> The only way it could get more pear shaped is if while distracted Georgia made a move on its great away regions or something.


It could, same way Taiwan could, and it would get the same response. Its more powerful nuclear armed neighbour would use that as a casus belli for annihilating that country.


----------



## Weinie (5 Dec 2021)

Good2Golf said:


> Not sure he wouldn’t use a tac nuke, *but that would make him a pariah and screw the Russian people in the mid/long-term.*


But would Putin care? Never underestimate the ego/ambitions of a megalomaniac.


----------



## Czech_pivo (5 Dec 2021)

Altair said:


> With 1 million active duty personnel, 2.5 million in reserve, with a population around 144 million, I cannot imagine them having broader manpower issues for any limited engagement.
> 
> If things move past a limited engagement, manpower does become an issue, but more in the nukes flying and nuclear winter kind of way more than any attrition.


The Russians would be in scenario similar to Germany in 1914. The moment they start moving large number of man/material west and stripping the east, the Chinese would be tempted to go North and East. The chance for all that space, clean water and natural resources would be to good to pass up. As a result the Russians are hampered, move to much west and possible lose parts of the east, move to little and risk being boggled down east of Kiev and not able to push to the Polish border.


----------



## Czech_pivo (5 Dec 2021)

MilEME09 said:


> We also need to consider Ukraine has expressed before that it could require nuclear arms given the failure of the US and Russia to honor the treaty that gave them up. If Ukraine required nuclear arms, that would change the calculations. Belarus is also a wild card, if Russia openly invades, troops will strike from the North too. Moldova is friendly, you could see a 4 front war, and while Ukraine has advanced they by no means have all the assets to deal with Russia.
> 
> The only way it could get more pear shaped is if while distracted Georgia made a move on its great away regions or something.


It’s in Poland’s vested interests for a viable Ukraine. The Poles will move into western Ukraine the moment the situation looks dicey for the Ukrainians. 
As I’ve stated on here before, the Russians are looking for a land bridge to the Krim, right up to Kherson if possible. Crossing west of Kherson threatens Odessa and if Odessa falls, a viable Ukraine falls as well. In addition, if they can take Kharkov, they’ve more than achieved their wildest expectations. Taking the above, including the Donbas, effective turns the Ukraine into a predominately agri-state, with most manufacturing, heavy industry gone. 
It’s becomes much harder to pay for all that natural gas come winter time by selling just fruits and vegetables on the open market.


----------



## Altair (5 Dec 2021)

Czech_pivo said:


> The Russians would be in scenario similar to Germany in 1914. The moment they start moving large number of man/material west and stripping the east, the Chinese would be tempted to go North and East. The chance for all that space, clean water and natural resources would be to good to pass up. As a result the Russians are hampered, move to much west and possible lose parts of the east, move to little and risk being boggled down east of Kiev and not able to push to the Polish border.


I've always seen the whole Russo-Sino conflict as way too overblown. 

The two have military ties, they have the same enemies, and they both want something they view as theirs back, they have absolutely no reason to backstab each other.

Not to mention, nukes. They both have nukes. If anything, I expect the west, especially America to do a 180 and focus on Russia again if Ukraine goes hot, meanwhile China starts making moves on Taiwan.


----------



## Czech_pivo (6 Dec 2021)

Altair said:


> I don't think Putin wants to go that far. Probably just wants a land connection to the Crimea.
> 
> But once bombs bullets and bodies enter the fray, anything can happen. Ukraine could be a harder nut to crack with all the training they have received and equipment. Or Ukraine could collapse and Russia can make additional gains.
> 
> The only thing that is clear to me is that whatever happens, Ukraine is on its own.


Do you think Ukraine would be on its own if Freeland is PM?
We’ve got little offer in terms of military assets but I’m certain that she’d be pulling every single lever that we have available to us, including working with the Poles in western Ukraine to keep some sort of rump Ukraine alive and well.


----------



## Altair (6 Dec 2021)

Czech_pivo said:


> Do you think Ukraine would be on its own if Freeland is PM?
> We’ve got little offer in terms of military assets but I’m certain that she’d be pulling every single lever that we have available to us, including working with the Poles in western Ukraine to keep some sort of rump Ukraine alive and well.


What, do you think that soft power diplomacy by a middle power is going mean a hell of a lot in the face of Russian tanks, jets, artillery and soldiers curbstomping the Ukrainians?

Warsaw will heed to Washington as is the case for all of NATO outside of France and maybe the UK, especially if the Russians limit their gains to linking Russia to Crimea overland. With only 100k troops at the border, I cannot imagine the Russians being able to do more than that anyways.

So Ukraine likely isn't going to be annexed, the Poles aren't moving into Ukraine, nobody is doing anything without Washingtons go ahead, and Canada will add nothing to the conversation other than a press release saying our troops are not in harms way.

Thankfully, the most likely scenario here is that Ukraine bows to Russian pressure and turns the taps back on in Crimea.


----------



## Czech_pivo (6 Dec 2021)

I have to say that your appeasement approach is sounding a bit 'Chamberlin', not that I'm wanting/looking for a conflict with Russia, though I enjoy flicking some sand in their eyes whenever its possible. 

I found this article, not sure if its been posted before, I apologise if it has.

Focuses alot on Russian logistical support, overwhelmingly tied to their railheads (still sound alot like 1914) and then their road system.  This is their weak point, smash their railheads and ruthlessly hit their truck transports and it all goes tits up for them.

_"Russian forces might reach early objectives, but logistics would impose requirements for operational pauses. As a result, a large land grab is unrealistic as a fait accompli. The Russian army has the combat power to capture the objectives envisioned in a fait accompli scenario, but it does not have the logistic forces to do it in a single push without a logistical pause to reset its sustainment infrastructure."

"drawing the Russian army deep into NATO territory and stretching Russian supply lines to the maximum while targeting logistics and transportation infrastructure such as trucks, railroad bridges, and pipelines."

"Russian army logistics forces are not designed for a large-scale ground offensive far from their railroads. Inside maneuver units, Russian sustainment units are a size lower than their Western counterparts."

"Russia’s truck logistic support, which would be crucial in an invasion of Eastern Europe, is limited by the number of trucks and range of operations. It is possible to calculate how far trucks can operate using simple beer math. Assuming the existing road network can support 45 mph speeds, a single truck can make three trips a day at up to a 45-mile range: One hours to load, one hour to drive to the supported unit, one hours to unload, and another hour to return to base. Repeating this cycle three times equals 12 hours total. The rest of the day is dedicated to truck maintenance, meals, refueling, weapons cleaning, and sleeping. Increase the distance to 90 miles, and the truck can make two trips daily. At 180 miles, the same truck is down to one trip a day. These assumptions won’t work in rough terrain or where there is limited/damaged infrastructure. If an army has just enough trucks to sustain itself at a 45-mile distance, then at 90 miles, the throughput will be 33 percent lower. At 180 miles, it will be down by 66 percent. The further you push from supply dumps, the fewer supplies you can replace in a single day.

The Russian army does not have enough trucks to meet its logistic requirement more than 90 miles beyond supply dumps. To reach a 180-mile range, the Russian army would have to double truck allocation to 400 trucks for each of the material-technical support brigades."

"The Russian army makes heavy use of tube and rocket artillery fire, and rocket ammunition is very bulky. Although each army is different, there are usually 56 to 90 multiple launch rocket system launchers in an army. Replenishing each launcher takes up the entire bed of the truck. If the combined arms army fired a single volley, it would require 56 to 90 trucks just to replenish rocket ammunition. That is about a half of a dry cargo truck force in the material-technical support brigade just to replace one volley of rockets._









						Feeding the Bear: A Closer Look at Russian Army Logistics and the Fait Accompli - War on the Rocks
					

Editor's note: Don't miss our comprehensive guide to Russia's war against Ukraine.    Russia’s military buildup along the border with Ukraine has



					warontherocks.com


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## Altair (6 Dec 2021)

Czech_pivo said:


> I have to say that your appeasement approach is sounding a bit 'Chamberlin', not that I'm wanting/looking for a conflict with Russia, though I enjoy flicking some sand in their eyes whenever its possible.


Get out of here with that slander.

I would love to punch Russian in the face. China too. Accept Ukraine into NATO, ally with Taiwan.

But I realize that the west just doesn't have the will to fight anymore. That's the reality. No leader is willing to risk blood and treasure going up against Russia or China, at least not over a place like Ukraine or Taiwan.

Crimea and Hong Kong were the test runs, and the west did the bare minimum in response. We guaranteed the territorial integrity of Ukraine, but allowed Russia to annex the Crimea. We guaranteed democracy in Hong Kong for 50 years, and stood by and did nothing as China crushed it after 30. What makes you think we would do anything if Russian troops crossed over into Ukraine tomorrow?

Russia and China are willing to use force, we are not, that's the calculus at play. I don't like it, but it is what it is.

Using that calculus, the best case scenario is Ukraine gives Russia what it wants, probably the water supply to the Crimea reestablished. Baring that, we get the worst case scenario, Russia punching Ukraine in the face and reestablishing the water supply itself and having a land corridor to the Russian mainland.


Czech_pivo said:


> I found this article, not sure if its been posted before, I apologise if it has.
> 
> Focuses alot on Russian logistical support, overwhelmingly tied to their railheads (still sound alot like 1914) and then their road system.  This is their weak point, smash their railheads and ruthlessly hit their truck transports and it all goes tits up for them.
> 
> ...


This would mean a lot more if they were facing a NATO power backed by the USA.

They are facing Ukraine.


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## MilEME09 (6 Dec 2021)

I would say we need to draw a line in the sand for Russia, but last time we did that we just drew a new line. The west doesn't have the stomach for a serious confrontation with Russia, or anyone capable of fighting back.


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## Ostrozac (7 Dec 2021)

MilEME09 said:


> I would say we need to draw a line in the sand for Russia, but last time we did that we just drew a new line. The west doesn't have the stomach for a serious confrontation with Russia, or anyone capable of fighting back.


Arguably there is a line in the sand — the line of the border of NATO member states. Ukraine (and Georgia) are not behind that line, and might have to fend for themselves.


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## Czech_pivo (7 Dec 2021)

Ostrozac said:


> Arguably there is a line in the sand — the line of the border of NATO member states. Ukraine (and Georgia) are not behind that line, and might have to fend for themselves.


I don't see how the Poles will accept the loss of Ukraine. The ONLY way that they could even begin to stomach the loss of Ukraine, ethnic Poles back living under Russian yoke, is if NATO (the US/Canada/UK) agreed to permanently stationing large, substantial forces on Polish soil (and if this happens, the Slovaks, Hungarians and Romanians will demanding nothing less for themselves.  This in essence would be recreating the Iron Curtain, just a few hundred km's to the east. From the Baltic to the Black Sea, a new, much longer, much more difficult to defend Iron Curtain.


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## Czech_pivo (7 Dec 2021)

The more I look at the map, the more sense it makes for Putin, if he's serious about invading Ukraine, is a single large push into Kharkov and then head south-, south-west to Dnipro. South of Dnipro there are only 4 bridges crossing the Dnieper River all the way to the Black Sea at Kherson.  Bomb or hold those 4 bridges and the Ukrainians will not be able to reinforce their troops on the entire east side of the Dnieper River from Kharkov south.  It will be game over for those troops, they will not be able to get their heavy weapons west across the river nor will they be able to get their supplies across to the east side.


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## MilEME09 (7 Dec 2021)

If the Russians try ti take Kharkov, it will be a blood bath. Ukraine will not willing let Russia take its heavy industry, including arms, and armoured vehicle manufacturing without a fight.


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## medic5 (7 Dec 2021)

There seems to be a lot of satellite imagery of Russian units and Flankers just lined up on runways. If this was anything other than a show of force, would the Russians not conceal their movements and make use of their famed maskirovka?


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## KevinB (7 Dec 2021)

Weinie said:


> But would Putin care? Never underestimate the ego/ambitions of a megalomaniac.


Putin also knows he's viewed as a Military target - so assassination would be on the table.
  We've got a pretty finely honed machine for that sort of stuff.

Putin is a survivor - right now he's gauging how much of a leash the West is on, and what the long term implications will be.
   He wants to be "The GUY" who put Russia back on the map as a true super power and dominant force in Europe.

Secondly - remember neither the Chinese or Russians are allies - they'd just a soon stab the other in the back as us, if they felt it was in their best interests.   The Chinese are long game players to an extent the West doesn't understand at all.


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## Eye In The Sky (7 Dec 2021)

Maybe that is their maskirovka...or, the maskirovka is that they are wanting people to think that is their maskirovka...or...the maskirovka is that they are fooling people to _think_ that they are fooling people to think that this is their maskirovka..or...


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## Remius (7 Dec 2021)

Eye In The Sky said:


> Maybe that is their maskirovka...or, the maskirovka is that they are wanting people to think that is their maskirovka...or...the maskirovka is that they are fooling people to _think_ that they are fooling people to think that this is their maskirovka..or...


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## daftandbarmy (7 Dec 2021)

KevinB said:


> Putin also knows he's viewed as a Military target - so assassination would be on the table.
> We've got a pretty finely honed machine for that sort of stuff.
> 
> Putin is a survivor - right now he's gauging how much of a leash the West is on, and what the long term implications will be.
> ...



Russia has a rickety economy and a ridiculously small GDP compared to its potential. No surprise why Putin is trying to focus attention elsewhere:


How Russia Makes Its Money​
Russia is more than twice as large as the contiguous 48 U.S. states, with an educated population and far more natural wealth than you’d expect to find in an area even as vast as 6.6 million square miles. Shouldn’t such a nation be the envy of the world, its undisputed superpower? Yet Russia’s gross domestic product (GDP) only comes in at number 11 in the world, as of 2020.1

While the United States ranks as the world's largest economy with a GDP (current US$) of $20.9 trillion in 2020, Russia's nominal GDP comes in at $1.5 trillion.1 In terms of GDP, Russia trails much smaller countries, such as the United Kingdom, Italy, and France. This is far lower than the country's inputs—such as literacy levels and access to capital—would indicate. How then does Russia make its money, and why doesn’t it make more?

KEY TAKEAWAYS​
In terms of gross domestic product (GDP), Russia trails much smaller countries with a nominal GDP of $1.5 trillion in 2020.
Russia's economy is dependent on the export of oil and natural gas, both of which are under the control of the Russian government.
This lack of economic diversification puts Russia at a disadvantage when demand for its energy products plummet, which then causes the Russian economy to contract.










						Emerging Markets: The Parts of Russia’s GDP
					

Understanding the GDP composition of the world’s most expansive country, Russia, can help investors considering entering that market.




					www.investopedia.com


----------



## Czech_pivo (7 Dec 2021)

Now this is an interesting read.

I will throw out a word of caution as I know nothing about this website, who funds it, supports it or what is its track record on neutrality in its reporting.  It is called the 'Bulgarian Military' so it might be Russian leaning due to religious/cultural ties.









						German media: The Russian invasion of Ukraine in three phases
					

German Bild reported on Saturday that it had learned the detailed plans for the Russian invasion of Ukraine, learned BulgarianMilitary.com, citing Defence24




					bulgarianmilitary.com
				




1) In the first phase of the invasion, the southern part of Ukraine will be taken _“both to secure supplies to Crimea and to cut Ukraine off from the sea and thus cut off supplies,_
Russia plans to use landing ships transported from the Baltic Sea in the spring _“to transport tanks and troops from Crimea to the outskirts of Odesa,_​_in the region of Kherson will be carried out “air operations of Special Forces”, which will block the bridges over the Dnieper and thus cut off supplies to Ukrainians. _​
_2) The second stage predicts that “in parallel with the first phase of the war, Putin’s air force and ballistic missiles will weaken Ukraine’s military potential throughout the country.”_
_Russian tank units could cross the border into Luhansk and Kharkiv regions and move to the cities of Dnipro and Poltava,”_ Bild reports. _“First, they will surround the cities and cut off their electricity, gas, and food supplies. _​
_3) In the third phase, the Russian army will advance from the north to Kyiv. “Of course, it could happen at the beginning of the war, if circumstances require it,” the source told Bild_
_If Belarus were to be prepared as the starting point for Russian or even Belarusian attacks, the Russian plan would be to encircle Kyiv from the northeast and northwest. Russian forces would then “march roughly to the Korosten-Uman line to cut off supplies from western Ukraine, and then wait for the capitulation of Kyiv and thus Ukraine under Western pressure.”_​​_








						German media: The Russian invasion of Ukraine in three phases
					

German Bild reported on Saturday that it had learned the detailed plans for the Russian invasion of Ukraine, learned BulgarianMilitary.com, citing Defence24




					bulgarianmilitary.com
				



_​​


----------



## MilEME09 (7 Dec 2021)

If that us true; either A. Russia leaked it on purpose as a decoy, or B. They have the worst OPSEC ever


----------



## KevinB (7 Dec 2021)

MilEME09 said:


> If that us true; either A. Russia leaked it on purpose as a decoy, or B. They have the worst OPSEC ever


C: 5I's have a lot capability than one is given credit for, and have kicked it out to NATO allies knowing it would leak...


----------



## Czech_pivo (7 Dec 2021)

KevinB said:


> C: 5I's have a lot capability than one is given credit for, and have kicked it out to NATO allies knowing it would leak...


I'm leaning towards this.


----------



## Altair (7 Dec 2021)

Czech_pivo said:


> Now this is an interesting read.
> 
> I will throw out a word of caution as I know nothing about this website, who funds it, supports it or what is its track record on neutrality in its reporting.  It is called the 'Bulgarian Military' so it might be Russian leaning due to religious/cultural ties.
> 
> ...


I don't buy it.

Russia would need a hell of a lot more than 100k soldiers massed near the border to achieve those results. That's a lot of urban combat potentially slowing them down,  a lot more points of potential failure.


----------



## Czech_pivo (7 Dec 2021)

Altair said:


> I don't buy it.
> 
> Russia would need a hell of a lot more than 100k soldiers massed near the border to achieve those results. That's a lot of urban combat potentially slowing them down,  a lot more points of potential failure.


I don't see alot of urban combat, I see alot of encircling, cutting transport, gas, electricity and food supplies to large urban areas and then picking the fruit before it drops to the ground.


----------



## Altair (7 Dec 2021)

Czech_pivo said:


> I don't see alot of urban combat, I see alot of encircling, cutting transport, gas, electricity and food supplies to large urban areas and then picking the fruit before it drops to the ground.


I suppose another factor is these sieges will take time.

The longer this goes on, the more international pressure comes down on Russia and the more weapons get handed to Ukraine.

If we see a continuous troop buildup between now and the end of January I would be way more convinced as to the validity of this leak, otherwise it's overly ambitious for the current troop numbers Russia is showing.


----------



## Colin Parkinson (7 Dec 2021)

daftandbarmy said:


> Russia has a rickety economy and a ridiculously small GDP compared to its potential. No surprise why Putin is trying to focus attention elsewhere:
> 
> 
> How Russia Makes Its Money​
> ...


Prior to Covid, Russia became the world largest exporter of grains, surpassing Canada and the US, that's a far cry from the Soviet days of wondering if they can feed their people and having to import grain from their enemies.


----------



## Altair (7 Dec 2021)

Colin Parkinson said:


> Prior to Covid, Russia became the world largest exporter of grains, surpassing Canada and the US, that's a far cry from the Soviet days of wondering if they can feed their people and having to import grain from their enemies.


It's been that way for a couple of decades now, not the largest but definitely a large exporter.

If I remember correctly they had a once in a generation bad harvest in 2010 and banned the exports of grains for that year, which lead to food prices soaring in the middle east contributing to the Arab spring.

They are definitely more self sufficient.


----------



## Czech_pivo (7 Dec 2021)

Since we've not heard anything official from the White House Press Office 3hrs after the meeting concluded, I think that its safe to say that the phone lines between DC, Paris, London, Berlin and Rome are burning up.  

There must be alot of back and forth in trying to either strong arm the Germans on sanctions against Nord Stream 2, getting agreement between DC/London and Paris/Berlin/Rome on what military actions to consider or trying to come up with a plan on how to sugar coat the bad news to Kiev....
Any other guesses?


----------



## KevinB (7 Dec 2021)

Altair said:


> It's been that way for a couple of decades now, not the largest but definitely a large exporter.
> 
> If I remember correctly they had a once in a generation bad harvest in 2010 and banned the exports of grains for that year, which lead to food prices soaring in the middle east contributing to the Arab spring.
> 
> They are definitely more self sufficient.








						Russia Exports - November 2022 Data - 1994-2021 Historical - December Forecast
					

Exports from Russia surged 72 percent from a year earlier to USD 45.93 billion in January of 2022, before the invasion of its neighbor Ukraine and West sanctions. Sales advanced to both non-CIS (76.9 percent) and CIS countries (41.3 percent). In March, Russia imposed an export ban on more than...




					tradingeconomics.com
				




Interestingly enough they do appear to be the number #1 exporter in weight if not by dollar value of wheat in 2020-21.

Given the recent turnaround in exports from Russia - I would expect this to be sabre rattling, as Vlad knows that even if he succeeded in occupying the Ukraine, the economy would take another major hit as sanctioned and embargoes where levied.


----------



## Altair (7 Dec 2021)

Czech_pivo said:


> Since we've not heard anything official from the White House Press Office 3hrs after the meeting concluded, I think that its safe to say that the phone lines between DC, Paris, London, Berlin and Rome are burning up.
> 
> There must be alot of back and forth in trying to either strong arm the Germans on sanctions against Nord Stream 2, getting agreement between DC/London and Paris/Berlin/Rome on what military actions to consider or trying to come up with a plan on how to sugar coat the bad news to Kiev....
> Any other guesses?


Calls to Turkey about the Istanbul Canal as a sidestep to the Montreux Convention which will allow American military ships (other than missile cruisers) into the black sea.


----------



## Czech_pivo (7 Dec 2021)

Altair said:


> Calls to Turkey about the Istanbul Canal as a sidestep to the Montreaux Convention which will allow American military ships (other than missile cruisers) into the black sea.


The Turks have taken a page out of Pakistan's playbook lately, playing both sides against each and flying close to the sun.  Sooner or later their wings will melt. 
It would take alot for arm twisting to get them to allow the above to happen, but anything is possible.


----------



## Altair (7 Dec 2021)

Czech_pivo said:


> The Turks have taken a page out of Pakistan's playbook lately, playing both sides against each and flying close to the sun.  Sooner or later their wings will melt.
> It would take alot for arm twisting to get them to allow the above to happen, but anything is possible.


Ukraine might be the collateral damage from Turkey building the canal. 

When the Canal is built, and the Canal isn't subject to the Montreux convention and NATO can start bringing in Aircraft carriers and other large military ships into the black sea without any limits, Russia might be feeling like now is the time to secure as much of the black sea coastline as possible, up to Odessa. 

Russia may be angling to have the Montreux Convention apply to any and all entrances to the black sea, not just the Bosporus.


----------



## Edward Campbell (7 Dec 2021)

I am afraid we are about to reap what we sowed about 30 years ago. 

It really doesn't matter, at all, not even in the slightest, what the US leadership said circa 1990, nor does it matter what they now say was really meant, what the Russians heard, what most of the world heard, was that the Warsaw Pact would be dissolved, the former Soviet client states would be free, they could, likely would, join the European Union, BUT they would NOT join NATO, they would remain neutral and would be a buffer between the US led NATO alliance and the new Russian federation.

That didn't happen; they were invited into NATO. Ronald Reagan said, "trust but verify." The Russians now say that they have verified American actions and the US-led West  cannot be trusted.

That's problem 1: the Russians actually have an internally consistent "case" which makes very good sense in Russia, to Russians.

Problem 2 is that a large minority of Americans and, indeed, a lot of Europeans do not believe that Bulgaria, Croatia, Czechia, Hungary, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia actually belong in NATO and are "allies" in the same way that Canada, Iceland, the Baltic States or even Turkey "belong" in the alliance.

But, see, also, this, in *Foreign Affairs*: "*The Kremlin is keeping the world guessing about its intentions and pursuing a policy of strategic ambiguity. This makes it difficult for the United States and Europe to know how to respond, inhibiting Western action. The Biden administration could follow suit, preparing a range of options with its European allies—including ramping up trade and financial sanctions and enhancing military cooperation with Ukraine—but doing so out of the public eye, ensuring that the Kremlin is uncertain about what Washington’s response might be in the event of a military escalation. Previous U.S. administrations have telegraphed their Ukraine policy. Back in 2016, U.S. President Barack Obama explained to The Atlantic why the United States had not responded more assertively to the Russian annexation of Crimea two years earlier. He said that Ukraine was more important to Russia than it was to the United States, that Washington had no treaty obligation toward Kyiv, and that Ukraine was Russia’s neighbor but was far from the United States. These realities invariably limited the options available to Washington. The Kremlin assumes that this remains the U.S. view and that the use of Russian military force would not be met with concomitant Western force.*"

Maybe it is time for some US "*strategic ambiguity*:" warn the Russians that military aggressions *will* be met with massive, absolutely overwhelming counterforce but, at the same time, offer to renegotiate the entire shape of Europe ... including he dissolution of NATO, itself.


----------



## Altair (7 Dec 2021)

Edward Campbell said:


> I am afraid we are about to reap what we sowed about 30 years ago.
> 
> It really doesn't matter, at all, not even in the slightest, what the US leadership said circa 1990, nor does it matter what they now say was really meant, what the Russians heard, what most of the world heard, was that the Warsaw Pact would be dissolved, the former Soviet client states would be free, they could, likely would, join the European Union, BUT they would NOT join NATO, they would remain neutral and would be a buffer between the US led NATO alliance and the new Russian federation.
> 
> ...


That's a bluff with nothing to back it up.

The Russians know what will happen if they invade. Sanctions and harsh words, that's it, that's all.


----------



## Czech_pivo (7 Dec 2021)

Altair said:


> That's a bluff with nothing to back it up.
> 
> The Russians know what will happen if they invade. Sanctions and harsh words, that's it, that's all.


If what you say is correct, we sit on our hands and Poland is held back from moving into eastern Galicia, then what we should consider is giving the Ukrainians pretty much every single weapon they ask for - openly give it to them - for if the Ukrainians are willing to fight and die for their independence, they should make it so hard for the Russians to digest them that they choke on them and the Russian mother's protest to such a degree that it forces a regime change in Russia. 

As fallout from the above - the EU (and Canada) will be hit be a Ukrainian migrant influx that will make the earlier issues hitting Germany et al look like a rehearsal.  For us, with the largest number of Ukrainians outside of the Ukraine, it safe to say that we'll take in 100k easily.


----------



## Altair (7 Dec 2021)

Czech_pivo said:


> If what you say is correct, we sit on our hands and Poland is held back from moving into eastern Galicia, then what we should consider is giving the Ukrainians pretty much every single weapon they ask for - openly give it to them - for if the Ukrainians are willing to fight and die for their independence, they should make it so hard for the Russians to digest them that they choke on them and the Russian mother's protest to such a degree that it forces a regime change in Russia.


I agree, anti tank, anti air, give them everything. They wont win, but they can definitely make it hurt.


Czech_pivo said:


> As fallout from the above - the EU (and Canada) will be hit be a Ukrainian migrant influx that will make the earlier issues hitting Germany et al look like a rehearsal.  For us, with the largest number of Ukrainians outside of the Ukraine, it safe to say that we'll take in 100k easily.


The Deputy PM would probably angle for this. We are looking to bring in 400k immigrants this year, I think taking in 100k Ukrainians would fit into that plan.


----------



## Czech_pivo (7 Dec 2021)

Altair said:


> I agree, anti tank, anti air, give them everything. They wont win, but they can definitely make it hurt.
> 
> The Deputy PM would probably angle for this. We are looking to bring in 400k immigrants this year, I think taking in 100k Ukrainians would fit into that plan.


The more I think about it, the more I think that 100k would just be in the opening number, I'd expect it to be much, much higher in the end, 200-250k over 1-3yrs. 

And we'd be on the Russians persona non-grata list for certain because of this as we'd be seen as harbouring the next Stepan Bandera.....


----------



## Altair (7 Dec 2021)

Czech_pivo said:


> The more I think about it, the more I think that 100k would just be in the opening number, I'd expect it to be much, much higher in the end, 200-250k over 1-3yrs.
> 
> And we'd be on the Russians persona non-grata list for certain because of this as we'd be seen as harbouring the next Stepan Bandera.....



Russia and Canada have no natural trade options. They export oil and gas, we export oil and gas, they export grains, we export grains. Don't see how they can hurt us. 

Other than the LSVW diesel filter, which is oddly built in Russia.


----------



## brihard (7 Dec 2021)

Altair said:


> Russia and Canada have no natural trade options. They export oil and gas, we export oil and gas, they export grains, we export grains. Don't see how they can hurt us.
> 
> Other than the LSVW diesel filter, which is oddly built in Russia.


Is THAT why it screams like a dying rat?


----------



## Altair (7 Dec 2021)

brihard said:


> Is THAT why it screams like a dying rat?


I assumed it was to strike fear into the hearts of our enemies like the old German stuka.


----------



## daftandbarmy (7 Dec 2021)

Edward Campbell said:


> *policy of strategic ambiguity. This makes it difficult for the United States and Europe to know how to respond, inhibiting Western action. *



So what you're saying is that it will be a bit like dating in Grade 11, but on a global scale?

OMFG no....


----------



## MilEME09 (7 Dec 2021)

Of we were smart, we would get liquid LNG shipments going to Europe to offset Russian gas. Hard for Europe to sanction Russia when it has the gas. We love not developing our resources, especially at the strategic level, so that will never happen.


----------



## Good2Golf (7 Dec 2021)

MilEME09 said:


> Of we were smart, we would get liquid LNG shipments going to Europe to offset Russian gas. Hard for Europe to sanction Russia when it has the gas. We love not developing our resources, especially at the strategic level, so that will never happen.


That's way too strategic for 99.9999999999934% of Canadians to consider.  Now if Canadian LNG were described as being gender-free and inclusive of all heating clients, perhaps it might get somewhere.


----------



## suffolkowner (7 Dec 2021)

MilEME09 said:


> Of we were smart, we would get liquid LNG shipments going to Europe to offset Russian gas. Hard for Europe to sanction Russia when it has the gas. We love not developing our resources, especially at the strategic level, so that will never happen.


The failure of Canada to get LNG to market over the last 40 years or so can not be minimized, both for the economic and tax benefits to Canada and the security benefits as well. Shameful planning and leadership


----------



## daftandbarmy (7 Dec 2021)

suffolkowner said:


> The failure of Canada to get LNG to market over the last 40 years or so can not be minimized, both for the economic and tax benefits to Canada and the security benefits as well. Shameful planning and leadership



We're not alone:

_“We must not discount conventional energy sources which are going to stay with us for a while yet,” said Alexander Novak, Deputy Prime Minister and former Energy Minister of Russia, at an international economic forum in St. Petersburg, Russia, on June 4._

Most of the world's proposed LNG projects unlikely to be built as investors fall out of love with natural gas​

LNG projects with double the capacity of current production levels are being planned across the world, but most will fall by the wayside, according to the International Gas Union.

There are currently 892.4 million tonnes per annum of “aspirational” liquefaction capacity in the pre-final investment decision stage, the IGU estimates, compared to the current capacity of 452.9 MTPA.

“However, a large portion of the pre-FID projects are likely not to progress. Given the weak economic landscape in 2020, developers have pushed back on capital-intensive pre-FID liquefaction projects and reinstated their strategies,” the IGU said in its latest report on the global LNG industry. “This puts small-scale LNG in the spotlight as it remains a growing segment within the wider LNG sector with significant potential.”

The new report comes as the role of natural gas in energy transition hangs in the balance. In May, The European Commission said that the European Union’s landmark rules to classify green investments may need to accommodate natural gas, as Brussels weighs a politically fraught decision on how to treat the fossil fuel.

In April, the commission published its “sustainable finance taxonomy,” a list of economic activities that can be marketed as green investments that is central to the E.U. plan to steer private capital into activities that will help meet climate targets.

While rules for some sectors, including transport and industry, have been agreed, Brussels delayed a decision on whether power plants fuelled by natural gas will be labelled as green, after months of lobbying from industry and E.U. governments.

“Advocates for the inclusion of gas in the taxonomy are petitioning to increase this emission threshold and highlight the important role that gas can play in supporting renewables intermittency, its lower carbon footprint than coal, and its potential in building hydrogen demand,” wrote Kate O’Sullivan, an analyst with Citigroup Global Markets Inc. “Meanwhile critics argue that low carbon alternatives already exist and inclusion of gas could lead to greenwashing.”

Major gas producers such as Russia and Qatar are also pushing for natural gas to have a place in the energy transition to renewable energy.

*“We must not discount conventional energy sources which are going to stay with us for a while yet,” said Alexander Novak, Deputy Prime Minister and former Energy Minister of Russia, at an international economic forum in St. Petersburg, Russia, on June 4.
*
The uncertainty around LNG projects comes as trade volumes for the liquefied gas rose to a record last year led by Asia, though growth was marginal as demand was slammed by coronavirus-induced restrictions, according to the IGU.

Overall, LNG trade increased to 356.1 million tonnes last year, up by 1.4 million tonnes or about 0.4 per cent from 2019, mostly driven by increased exports from the United States and Australia.

This was smaller than the growth of 40.9 million tonnes, or 11.5%, in 2019, the IGU said. But, LNG was one of the few commodities that had an increase in trade in 2020, it said.

“LNG trade in 2020 was heavily impacted by COVID-19, as markets, cities and producers across the globe wrestled with lockdowns and a multitude of other disruptions,” said the IGU, which comprises more than 160 members and advocates the use of gas.









						Most of the world's proposed LNG projects unlikely to be built as investors fall out of love with natural gas
					

A quarter of them are located in Canada




					financialpost.com


----------



## suffolkowner (7 Dec 2021)

U.S. Military Steps Up Planning For Evacuation Operation In Ukraine As Crisis Deepens: Report (Updated)
					

News of more active contingency planning with regards to Ukraine came ahead of a meeting between Presidents Biden and Putin today.




					www.thedrive.com
				




So instead of doing something that might influence the situation positively like increase the quantity and speed of weapons systems delivery. Or even move some of the 55,000 personnel stationed in the UK, Italy, or Germany in to support Ukraine. Biden's big move is to pre plan the evacuation of US personnel in Ukraine. *Altair* may have the right of it as it looks like Biden at least has no idea how to play the game. How on earth do you think planning your evacuation is supposed to deter Russian aggression. Many people have claimed Putin to be some kind of strategic genius but I think its more that the US has been lead by 3 consecutive Presidents that are strategic idiots with a lack of moral authority on the side. Of course the Europeans haven't been any better


----------



## Czech_pivo (7 Dec 2021)

suffolkowner said:


> U.S. Military Steps Up Planning For Evacuation Operation In Ukraine As Crisis Deepens: Report (Updated)
> 
> 
> News of more active contingency planning with regards to Ukraine came ahead of a meeting between Presidents Biden and Putin today.
> ...


We are about to watch a new Munich Agreement go down it seems.

There are none of the ‘greatest generation’ left in politics to stand up and do what needs to be done. 

“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”​
We are in the ‘good times create weak men’ phase of Western hegemony it seems.


----------



## Altair (7 Dec 2021)

suffolkowner said:


> U.S. Military Steps Up Planning For Evacuation Operation In Ukraine As Crisis Deepens: Report (Updated)
> 
> 
> News of more active contingency planning with regards to Ukraine came ahead of a meeting between Presidents Biden and Putin today.
> ...


The American public is getting what they want.

They want out of conflicts. They want to get tough on China,  thus the pivot, but not to the point of conflict, which is why China is feeling emboldened.

It leaves any president in a bit of a tough position, for as much as they may want to do more they are aware of the political reality back home.

And as goes America , so goes NATO. NATO has never learned how to function without the USA. Hell,  Western powers were running out of ammunition bombing Libya. So if the Americans are out, so is everyone else.

Ukraine is well and truly on its own. Their best hope is back channel diplomacy bears fruit.


----------



## suffolkowner (7 Dec 2021)

Ukraine would not be in such a questionable spot if they had spent the last 7 years or so and created a viable airforce. The whole things crazy really. European NATO outnumbers Russia 4:1 in pretty much everything. There is no reason to be so timid, just put an end to this farce, otherwise there's no reason to spend any money on the respective militaries at all its just wasted. China has to be sitting back and looking at this and thinking if a punk Putin in a backwoods shithole like Russia can pull off a bluff like this then there is no one stopping us from anything we want


----------



## Altair (7 Dec 2021)

suffolkowner said:


> Ukraine would not be in such a questionable spot if they had spent the last 7 years or so and created a viable airforce. The whole things crazy really. European NATO outnumbers Russia 4:1 in pretty much everything. There is no reason to be so timid, just put an end to this farce, otherwise there's no reason to spend any money on the respective militaries at all its just wasted. China has to be sitting back and looking at this and thinking if a punk Putin in a backwoods shithole like Russia can pull off a bluff like this then there is no one stopping us from anything we want


Ever hear it's not the size of the dog in a fight, it's the size of the fight in the dog?

The USA could crush Russia, Europe could crush Russia, but if neither has the will to fight Russia, then Russia wins.

And you're right, China is taking notes.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart (8 Dec 2021)

Nominal GDP isn't a particularly useful comparison when looking at the relative economic strength of Russia in comparison to others.  

PPP is more useful because it takes in to account differences in cost of living and currency valuations.

By PPP, Russia is 6th in the World, on par with Germany and Japan, well ahead of the rest of Europe.

As for actually ability to fight a war, Russia is far better equipped for that.  It has plenty of actual heavy industry still and plenty of natural resources

The Europeans, with the exception of France, Poland and the UK, all have boutique paper Militaries. They would, like us, be woefully unprepared for a war in Russia and would need to hope that Uncle Sam would come to the rescue.


----------



## MilEME09 (8 Dec 2021)

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Nominal GDP isn't a particularly useful comparison when looking at the relative economic strength of Russia in comparison to others.
> 
> PPP is more useful because it takes in to account differences in cost of living and currency valuations.
> 
> ...


At this point, I think most of Europe has forgotten how to fight a near peer war


----------



## Good2Golf (8 Dec 2021)

MilEME09 said:


> At this point, I think most of Europe has forgotten how to fight a near peer war


Probably wishing they hadn’t been so negative on nuclear power. Now their Vlad’s energy slaves…


----------



## KevinB (8 Dec 2021)

Altair said:


> Ever hear it's not the size of the dog in a fight, it's the size of the fight in the dog?
> 
> The USA could crush Russia, Europe could crush Russia, but if neither has the will to fight Russia, then Russia wins.
> 
> And you're right, China is taking notes.


Bingo

Hard Times breed hard men (or a hard populace) - the West is soft now as we have become so enamored with comforts, and tired by GWOT - that it appears we no longer have the strength of will to stand up to challenges.


----------



## Remius (8 Dec 2021)

Biden says US troops in Ukraine are off the table but promises withering sanctions if Russia invades | CNN Politics
					

President Joe Biden on Wednesday ruled out sending US troops to Ukraine to defend the country from a Russian invasion a day after laying out the consequences for such an incursion during a stern phone call with President Vladimir Putin.




					www.cnn.com
				




Predictable.


----------



## daftandbarmy (8 Dec 2021)

Remius said:


> Biden says US troops in Ukraine are off the table but promises withering sanctions if Russia invades | CNN Politics
> 
> 
> President Joe Biden on Wednesday ruled out sending US troops to Ukraine to defend the country from a Russian invasion a day after laying out the consequences for such an incursion during a stern phone call with President Vladimir Putin.
> ...



This is an opportunity to match Russia's game and send in some proxy forces.

'BlakanWater Inc.' has a nice ring to it


----------



## Good2Golf (8 Dec 2021)

Remius said:


> Biden says US troops in Ukraine are off the table but promises withering sanctions if Russia invades | CNN Politics
> 
> 
> President Joe Biden on Wednesday ruled out sending US troops to Ukraine to defend the country from a Russian invasion a day after laying out the consequences for such an incursion during a stern phone call with President Vladimir Putin.
> ...


Doesn’t give Putin anything to demonize and weakens his position defending his actions against Ukraine defending against him…


----------



## Good2Golf (8 Dec 2021)

daftandbarmy said:


> This is an opportunity to match Russia's game and send in some proxy forces.
> 
> 'BlakanWater Inc.' has a nice ring to it


Maybe the “Waggoner Group?”


----------



## MilEME09 (8 Dec 2021)

daftandbarmy said:


> This is an opportunity to match Russia's game and send in some proxy forces.
> 
> 'BlakanWater Inc.' has a nice ring to it


Get the CIA to have the taliban or ISIS-K stir up trouble in Dagistan or Chechnya?


----------



## KevinB (8 Dec 2021)

MilEME09 said:


> Get the CIA to have the taliban or ISIS-K stir up trouble in Dagistan or Chechnya?


You really don't even need anyone to stir up issues in Chechnya - but Vlad will also burn it down - he has no qualms with very extreme measures to deal what he considered internal dissent.

As far as US forces - we already have troops in the Ukraine with TF Raven, not enough to do anything - but would be messy if they incurred casualties due to Russian actions.








						Biden Is Running Out of Time to Help Ukraine Fend Off Russia
					

Kyiv’s pleas for more U.S. guns to hold off Moscow have prompted a political knife fight in Washington.




					foreignpolicy.com


----------



## Czech_pivo (8 Dec 2021)

KevinB said:


> You really don't even need anyone to stir up issues in Chechnya - but Vlad will also burn it down - he has no qualms with very extreme measures to deal what he considered internal dissent.
> 
> As far as US forces - we already have troops in the Ukraine with TF Raven, not enough to do anything - but would be messy if they incurred casualties due to Russian actions.
> 
> ...


Those US troops are like a stone's throw away from the Canadian troops stationed there.  Both sets of troops are like under 20-25k to the Polish border.


----------



## KevinB (8 Dec 2021)

Czech_pivo said:


> Those US troops are like a stone's throw away from the Canadian troops stationed there.  Both sets of troops are like under 20-25k to the Polish border.


The Russians aren't known for their concern about others should they decided to act -- they will hit bases within 1m of the Polish border should they feel it has troops that would oppose them.


----------



## Czech_pivo (8 Dec 2021)

KevinB said:


> The Russians aren't known for their concern about others should they decided to act -- they will hit bases within 1m of the Polish border should they feel it has troops that would oppose them.


Any sense if the US/CDN troops based there even have personal weapons?


----------



## KevinB (8 Dec 2021)

Czech_pivo said:


> Any sense if the US/CDN troops based there even have personal weapons?


Yes - but I doubt they have any significant stores of ammunition, it is a training Force - at least the ones in public -- I would assume that we also have other forces that aren't as public doing other less than public things in the area too.


----------



## Czech_pivo (8 Dec 2021)

KevinB said:


> Yes - but I doubt they have any significant stores of ammunition, it is a training Force - at least the ones in public -- I would assume that we also have other forces that aren't as public doing other less than public things in the area too.


Either way, personal weapons won't really do them much good, unless they're paired up with some Ukie tank-hunting groups.....

I'm still of the thought if the Russian's attempt to ingest all of Ukraine that the Poles attempt to hold the Lvov, Tarnopol, Ivano-Frankvisk, Kolomayya, Chernivsti pocket. Holding that area covers off the entire Slovak, Hungarian and Romanian frontiers.  They might even get formal or informal help from those countries as it covers off their borders from the Russians.  This can provide a rump state for the Ukrainian government, setting up a possible UN peacekeeping mission that Canada for certain would participant in.


----------



## Altair (8 Dec 2021)

Czech_pivo said:


> Either way, personal weapons won't really do them much good, unless they're paired up with some Ukie tank-hunting groups.....
> 
> I'm still of the thought if the Russian's attempt to ingest all of Ukraine that the Poles attempt to hold the Lvov, Tarnopol, Ivano-Frankvisk, Kolomayya, Chernivsti pocket. Holding that area covers off the entire Slovak, Hungarian and Romanian frontiers.


If they did it, it would be without the go to from Washington, pretty much them going rogue. I'm sure Washington will let it be known they are on their own. 

This, the same polish military that got spanked just trying to hold their own territory will last all of 5 minutes versus the Russians in Ukraine. This isn't as big a huge deal, so long as Russia doesn't attack Poland proper, but for a nationalistic semi strongman government, getting smacked around by Russia has dire political repercussions at home.


Czech_pivo said:


> They might even get formal or informal help from those countries as it covers off their borders from the Russians.  This can provide a rump state for the Ukrainian government, setting up a possible UN peacekeeping mission that Canada for certain would participant in.


Please.


----------



## daftandbarmy (8 Dec 2021)

As a reminder, the last time the Poles trusted the Allied Western Powers to help them within the context of a mutual assistant treaty, this happened:














						Poland, First to Fight - The Warsaw Institute Review
					

Poland was the first country to firmly resist the brutal expansion of the totalitarian powers that were utterly indifferent to the rights of weaker countries. Poland’s armed resistance to German aggression on September 1, 1939, was a turning point in world politics towards the Third Reich...




					warsawinstitute.review


----------



## MilEME09 (8 Dec 2021)

Which is why Poland has essentially acted how it has to become the big kid in Eastern Europe. They may be in NATO, but they trust no one to help them.


----------



## CBH99 (8 Dec 2021)

I was going to say…

I wouldn’t be so quick to write off the Poles as getting whipped if they and the Russians have a clash.  

If the reference was to WW2 — anybody would have been whipped by Germany as it was in 1939…


----------



## Altair (8 Dec 2021)

CBH99 said:


> I was going to say…
> 
> I wouldn’t be so quick to write off the Poles as getting whipped if they and the Russians have a clash.
> 
> If the reference was to WW2 — anybody would have been whipped by Germany as it was in 1939…


The reference was to their own military exercise held in January 2021, where the goal was hold poland for 22 days until help arrived and they held on for...4 days.

If the get spanked by Russia in 4 days in Poland proper, how long do they last on their own versus Russia in Ukraine?


----------



## CBH99 (8 Dec 2021)

Altair said:


> The reference was to their own military exercise held in January 2021, where the goal was hold poland for 22 days until help arrived and they held on for...4 days.
> 
> If the get spanked by Russia in 4 days in Poland proper, how long do they last on their own versus Russia in Ukraine?


Ah, seen & agreed.


----------



## MilEME09 (8 Dec 2021)

Altair said:


> The reference was to their own military exercise held in January 2021, where the goal was hold poland for 22 days until help arrived and they held on for...4 days.
> 
> If the get spanked by Russia in 4 days in Poland proper, how long do they last on their own versus Russia in Ukraine?


Any extra 2 days till they reach the polish border. That said, if shit hit the fan, all bets are off as to who jumps in the poop storm.


----------



## Altair (8 Dec 2021)

MilEME09 said:


> Any extra 2 days till they reach the polish border. That said, if shit hit the fan, all bets are off as to who jumps in the poop storm.


If America wanted to fight Russia to protect Ukraine they would be positioning troops now.

They are not going to let Poland drag them into any conflict with Russia. If Warsaw gave Washington the finger (which I doubt, but lets say they do) and jumped into Ukraine, Washington would leave them out to dry, same for anyone who is foolish enough to join them.


----------



## Eye In The Sky (8 Dec 2021)

Czech_pivo said:


> Any sense if the US/CDN troops based there even have personal weapons?



Their presence there _is_ the weapon...


----------



## MilEME09 (8 Dec 2021)

Eye In The Sky said:


> Their presence there _is_ the weapon...


That doesn't help when a dozen Ukrainians with baseball bats show up to take your supplies. Yes it has happened, and we had to stand back and let them take it cause in 2016/17 they had no personal weapons.


----------



## Eye In The Sky (8 Dec 2021)

And if they would have, would they have used the wpns?  If not...there's no difference really in terms of 'outcome' in that situation.


----------



## FJAG (9 Dec 2021)

The Florida National Guard is in the Ukraine:Florida National Guard troops are somehow caught up in Russia’s showdown with UkraineRed Storm Rising.BY JEFF SCHOGOL | PUBLISHED DEC 7, 2021 4:22 PMNEWSARMY


> The Florida National Guard’s 53rd Infantry Brigade Combat Team unfurls its colors at a Nov. 30 ceremony in Ukraine. (From Joint Multinational Training Group-Ukraine's Facebook page.).
> 
> More than 100 Florida National Guard troops are currently deployed to Ukraine as U.S. intelligence officials continue to warn that Russia is poised to launch a crushing invasion of the country early next year.
> 
> ...





> Florida National Guard troops are somehow caught up in Russia's showdown with Ukraine
> 
> 
> Red Storm Rising.
> ...



🍻


----------



## daftandbarmy (9 Dec 2021)

FJAG said:


> The Florida National Guard is in the Ukraine:Florida National Guard troops are somehow caught up in Russia’s showdown with UkraineRed Storm Rising.BY JEFF SCHOGOL | PUBLISHED DEC 7, 2021 4:22 PMNEWSARMY
> 
> 
> 
> ...


----------



## Altair (9 Dec 2021)

Who want to bet that the invasion beings in and around February 4th, the opening of the Beijing Olympics, like the time he invaded Georgia?


----------



## CBH99 (9 Dec 2021)

Altair said:


> Who want to bet that the invasion beings in and around February 4th, the opening of the Beijing Olympics, like the time he invaded Georgia?


While the world is distracted with the Beijing Olympics?  Attack while the world is focused on something else…smart.  

And Mr. Putin _is_ smart.  

In Georgia, the Russians had a very limited objective.  The conflict was short and brutally one sided, and very much kept Georgia as a border country/state under Russian influence, rather than the West.  


100,000 - 175,000 troops for Ukraine seems a bit much if their only objective is to achieve total victory in the area they have been focused on.  

175,000 seems a lot more akin to invading the whole country, no?  Or at least drawing in the entire Ukrainian Armed Forces…


----------



## CBH99 (9 Dec 2021)

MilEME09 said:


> That doesn't help when a dozen Ukrainians with baseball bats show up to take your supplies. Yes it has happened, and we had to stand back and let them take it cause in 2016/17 they had no personal weapons.


What the actual f*_k?  *Seriously?_

I have so many questions on this… why not personal weapons?  How did the mob get on base?  What kinds of supplies did they take?  

Who decided to deploy them without the fundamental basic protection of a sidearm?  (Not that _that_ would have altered things if they could not be used…)



My only deployments were to Afghanistan, and we had to have our weapons on us at almost all times.  Like _all_ the bloody time. 

So my wee brain is having a hard time understanding that our troops there wouldn’t have had a sidearm on them for _precisely_ this kind of situation.


----------



## Altair (9 Dec 2021)

CBH99 said:


> While the world is distracted with the Beijing Olympics?  Attack while the world is focused on something else…smart.
> 
> And Mr. Putin _is_ smart.


Smart but a wee bit predictable at this point.

Just after the Sochi games in 2014 he started the little green men op in Crimea.

2008 Beijing Olympics he invaded Georgia.

But he hasn't failed yet.


CBH99 said:


> In Georgia, the Russians had a very limited objective.  The conflict was short and brutally one sided, and very much kept Georgia as a border country/state under Russian influence, rather than the West.


Mission accomplished for Russia.


CBH99 said:


> 100,000 - 175,000 troops for Ukraine seems a bit much if their only objective is to achieve total victory in the area they have been focused on.


I don't think that's enough to occupy the entire country. But it's certainly enough for seizing good portions of eastern Ukraine with follow up elements to hold on to gains.


----------



## Jarnhamar (9 Dec 2021)

Doesn't half of Ukraine side with Russia anyways?


----------



## KevinB (9 Dec 2021)

Jarnhamar said:


> Doesn't half of Ukraine side with Russia anyways?


That's what Vlad wants you to think.  Given they and China are pretty good with flooding areas with "local" agitators, they certainly try to portray that.
    While I am certain that some Ukrainians may have felt an attachment to Russia, I wouldn't accept even 5% as the number, and definitely not 50%.


----------



## MilEME09 (9 Dec 2021)

CBH99 said:


> What the actual f*_k?  *Seriously?_
> 
> I have so many questions on this… why not personal weapons?  How did the mob get on base?  What kinds of supplies did they take?
> 
> ...


Corruption and a lack of proper security appear to be a staple of Ukraine. Apparently things have changed now from what I heard.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart (9 Dec 2021)

MilEME09 said:


> That doesn't help when a dozen Ukrainians with baseball bats show up to take your supplies. Yes it has happened, and we had to stand back and let them take it cause in 2016/17 they had no personal weapons.


Ukrainian's play Baseball!?  

Shoulda just given er any style!


----------



## daftandbarmy (9 Dec 2021)

MilEME09 said:


> Corruption and a lack of proper security appear to be a staple of Ukraine. Apparently things have changed now from what I heard.



When it comes to corruption, they're awesome. We might be propping up another South Vietnam:

​Corruption is widespread in Ukrainian society.[1][2] In 2012 Ernst & Young put Ukraine among the three most-corrupt nations of the world - alongside Colombia and Brazil.[3] In 2015 _The Guardian_ called Ukraine "the most corrupt nation in Europe".[4] According to a poll conducted by Ernst & Young in 2017, experts considered Ukraine to be the ninth-most corrupt nation in the world.[5] According to the Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index, Ukraine ranked 117th out of 180 countries in 2020, ranking the second lowest in Europe, after Russia.[6]

United States diplomats described Ukraine under Presidents Kuchma (in office from 1994 to 2005) and Yushchenko (in office from 2005 to 2010) as a kleptocracy, according to WikiLeaks cables.[7]









						Corruption in Ukraine - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## Czech_pivo (9 Dec 2021)

daftandbarmy said:


> When it comes to corruption, they're awesome. We might be propping up another South Vietnam:
> 
> ​Corruption is widespread in Ukrainian society.[1][2] In 2012 Ernst & Young put Ukraine among the three most-corrupt nations of the world - alongside Colombia and Brazil.[3] In 2015 _The Guardian_ called Ukraine "the most corrupt nation in Europe".[4] According to a poll conducted by Ernst & Young in 2017, experts considered Ukraine to be the ninth-most corrupt nation in the world.[5] According to the Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index, Ukraine ranked 117th out of 180 countries in 2020, ranking the second lowest in Europe, after Russia.[6]
> 
> ...


That was under the former pro-russian government, that the pro-western Ukrainians threw out, starting this whole mess with Putin.

For certain there is still corruption there, and it will continue to exist for years to come, but the current government has aggressively moved to knock it back and to continue to knock it back.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart (9 Dec 2021)

Czech_pivo said:


> That was under the former pro-russian government, that the pro-western Ukrainians threw out, starting this whole mess with Putin.
> 
> For certain there is still corruption there, and it will continue to exist for years to come, but the current government has aggressively moved to knock it back and to continue to knock it back.


Yes, they magically became less corrupt because they changed the colour of their draperies 🤣

Corruption is a cultural and societal issue.  It's not because the Politicians change that these societies magically become less corrupt.


----------



## Czech_pivo (9 Dec 2021)

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Yes, they magically became less corrupt because they changed the colour of their draperies 🤣
> 
> Corruption is a cultural and societal issue.  It's not because the Politicians change that these societies magically become less corrupt.


Corruption is a poverty issue - and lack of a strong independent judicial system.  

Ukraine is either the poorest country in Europe or among the top 2 or 3.  Widespread apathy among the former pro-Kremlin government officials made the issue systematic and more ingrained in society.  

The current government has moved to address this issue, but it will take decades to resolve and it will only work if the standard of living of all Ukrainians increases, from the pensioner to the young people just joining the workforce, to those in the prime working/earning years. 

I definitely saw and heard this on a daily/weekly basis when I was living/working in Prague in the mid 90's.  Everyone was angling for their slice of the pie, everyone wanted to improve their own personal situation and bribes worked.  

I also remember a trip to St. Petersburg Russia in the early 90's when I was attending university in Belgium. I went to visit a Finnish friend in Helsinki who had wrapped up his studies in Belgium. He was able to get me to join with this class trip, at the U of Helsinki, for a long weekend to St. Petersburg. On the ferry ride over, he and his male friends were telling me to buy a carton of Marlboro cigarettes from the Duty Free store on board.  I asked why as I didn't smoke, they said 'you'll see.'  So I bought them.  We were being given accommodations by the hosting faculty at the U of St. Petersburg within their student dormitories. After the welcoming ceremonies by the hosting faculty, the Finns (and me as the only non-Finn) and Russians students started to eat, drink and mingle.  It was then when it become apparent as to why the carton of Marlboro's was purchased......young, beautiful Russian girl students were coming up and asking if we had cigarettes. When we said yes, they basically said that they 'would help keep us us warm at night during our stay' since the heating in the dormitories rarely worked.  A carton of Marlboro's was the price. Desperate times (poverty) leads to desperate actions.


----------



## Edward Campbell (9 Dec 2021)

This, by James Jay Carafano, a pretty staunch "conservative," as Americans, usually mistakenly, use that term, is a call to ... well, to something short of arms.


----------



## Czech_pivo (9 Dec 2021)

Edward Campbell said:


> This, by James Jay Carafano, a pretty staunch "conservative," as Americans, usually mistakenly, use that term, is a call to ... well, to something short of arms.


One other area that they continue to exert pressure and continue to use as their proxy is Serbia. 
Note the recent tensions between Montenegro and Serbia over the new Orthodox Bishop in Montenegro.  Montenegro is Georgia is this scenario and Serbia is Russia. Don’t forgot or discount this area of Europe as yet another area of potential conflict and destabilization.


----------



## daftandbarmy (9 Dec 2021)

Czech_pivo said:


> Corruption is a poverty issue - and lack of a strong independent judicial system.



It's an ethical leadership issue too:

In this article, we empirically assess the role of ethical leadership in reducing corruption. We also examine whether the effectiveness of ethical leadership in curbing corruption depends on the quality of the reward system in public organizations. We focus on two related components of the reward system: the use of performance-based rewards and procedural fairness. Using data collected through a survey of 741 employees in 154 government and non-profit organizations in Pakistan, we find a negative association between ethical managerial leadership and reports of corruption. We also find that the use of performance-based rewards is associated with fewer incidences of corruption, and that the negative relationship between ethical leadership and corruption is stronger when employees report low levels of procedural fairness. We discuss the implications of these findings for research on and strategies for combating corruption in public organizations.






						SAGE Journals: Your gateway to world-class research journals
					

Subscription and open access journals from SAGE Publishing, the world's leading independent academic publisher.




					journals.sagepub.com


----------



## McG (9 Dec 2021)

Eye In The Sky said:


> Their presence there _is_ the weapon...


UNIFIER is a capacity building mission, not a deterrence mission.


----------



## Altair (9 Dec 2021)

McG said:


> UNIFIER is a capacity building mission, not a deterrence mission.


Well, that's good, because if it was it's clearly not working.


----------



## KevinB (9 Dec 2021)

Altair said:


> Well, that's good, because if it was it's clearly not working.


AFAIK non of the NATO forces in Ukraine have been there for deterrence - simply FID.
   Having some NATO troops however is a tiny bit of deterrence - as any injuries to them would lead down to a road that I don't think anyone overly wants.


----------



## Altair (9 Dec 2021)

KevinB said:


> AFAIK non of the NATO forces in Ukraine have been there for deterrence - simply FID.
> Having some NATO troops however is a tiny bit of deterrence - as any injuries to them would lead down to a road that I don't think anyone overly wants.


Do the Russians really give a damn?

Are the not trying to run American soldiers off the road in Syria, leading to injuries and potentially death of US personnel?


----------



## Czech_pivo (9 Dec 2021)

daftandbarmy said:


> It's an ethical leadership issue too:
> 
> In this article, we empirically assess the role of ethical leadership in reducing corruption. We also examine whether the effectiveness of ethical leadership in curbing corruption depends on the quality of the reward system in public organizations. We focus on two related components of the reward system: the use of performance-based rewards and procedural fairness. Using data collected through a survey of 741 employees in 154 government and non-profit organizations in Pakistan, we find a negative association between ethical managerial leadership and reports of corruption. We also find that the use of performance-based rewards is associated with fewer incidences of corruption, and that the negative relationship between ethical leadership and corruption is stronger when employees report low levels of procedural fairness. We discuss the implications of these findings for research on and strategies for combating corruption in public organizations.
> 
> ...


Thank you for posting this article.  I will definitely read it over.

One thing to keep in mind is the fact that the Ukraine and Russia have never, ever had anything like the 'open society' (to use the term of the Karl Popper influenced organization, organized and funded by the George Soros Foundation) that we in Canada/US and most parts of Western Europe had.  They went from the Czar, with near total control of the society/government to Lenin inspired Communism and then various forms of this under it former leaders, to Boris Yeltsin to its current 'Czar' Putin.  'Ethical leadership' never occurred there, its never had a chance to grow and flourish.

I remember from my days working in the CR in the mid 90's the challenges that were faced on a daily basis of 'doing the right thing for the right reasons.' So many 'ex-Czech's' came back from Canada and the US to help get them on their feet in terms of day to day running of the media, government departments, businesses, education facilities, etc. These were the people who were raised in the independent Czechoslovakia of the 1920-30's and the handful of years between 1945-48 or they were the children of these people.  Russia never had this occur, the old leaders simply took off their party pins and picked up a Coca-Cola and started raping the country of all they could. There was virtually no purging of the old guard and in the case of Russia, there was no returning of ex-Pats on a large scale to help out.

When I was working in the CR there was a common phrase that was used by many to describe those between the ages of 35-60, they were openly called the 'Lost Generation' as it was believed that they would be 'lost' by the new open society that they were going to have to live in. They were considered 'lost' because they were used to the State doing virtually everything for them, decide where they'd work, decide where they'd live, in what sort of 'panelak' (Panelák - Wikipedia) they'd receive from the State or their employer, where they'd go for the holidays, what sort of food or clothes there would have access to, etc, etc.  Those under 35 felt that they were young enough to be up for the challenges that they would be facing and those over 60 still remembered the stories told to them by their parents/grandparents on what life was life before Communism took over.  Those people were the keepers of the 'old way of doing things'  and they did their best to instill this sense of 'right or wrong' in their grandchildren in the new society.  Want to quit your job and start up a new company, go and see your grandparents as they would tell you to do, you're young, take the risk, work hard everyday and mostly, they, the grandparents would be the ones helping out.  I saw this and experienced this all the time.  And it wasn't just in the CR, I saw it in Hungary and it Poland during my trips there.


----------



## daftandbarmy (9 Dec 2021)

Czech_pivo said:


> Thank you for posting this article.  I will definitely read it over.
> 
> One thing to keep in mind is the fact that the Ukraine and Russia have never, ever had anything like the 'open society' (to use the term of the Karl Popper influenced organization, organized and funded by the George Soros Foundation) that we in Canada/US and most parts of Western Europe had.  They went from the Czar, with near total control of the society/government to Lenin inspired Communism and then various forms of this under it former leaders, to Boris Yeltsin to its current 'Czar' Putin.  'Ethical leadership' never occurred there, its never had a chance to grow and flourish.
> 
> ...



According to this index (which I know nothing about of course) the Ukraine is the 9th most corrupt country in the world while Romania is ranked 69th.

Ukraine:








						Corruption in Ukraine - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				




Romania:








						Corruption in Romania - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				




I'm no particular fan of either country but, with it's terrifying totalitarian history, how can Romania be so much better?

I mean, they're building most of the ferries for Canada's West Coast etc. It sees like they've managed a miracle trunaround in comparison to the Ukraine. Viz: News Release | BC Ferries' Sixth Island Class Ferry Departs Romania Bound for B.C.


----------



## Czech_pivo (9 Dec 2021)

daftandbarmy said:


> According to this index (which I know nothing about of course) the Ukraine is the 9th most corrupt country in the world while Romania is ranked 69th.
> 
> Ukraine:
> 
> ...


Simple, two letters - EU.

One is in the EU and one is not.
One has to follow their rules, regulations and guidelines and one does not.
One has access to massive amounts of EU funding and bureaucrats for skills sets they lack and the other does not.
‘PHARE’ is the answer to many of these questions - 






						Phare - Wikipedia
					






					en.m.wikipedia.org
				



This is some of what I personally worked on during my times in the CR.


----------



## suffolkowner (9 Dec 2021)

I don't believe for one minute that Russia can take and hold Poland in 4 days. This has to be one of those BS simulation where Russia magically throws their whole army at Poland and leaves the rest of Russia undefended. The corruption in Ukraine is what makes Russians feel at home there, but lets not diminish the Russians influence there.


----------



## Altair (9 Dec 2021)

suffolkowner said:


> I don't believe for one minute that Russia can take and hold Poland in 4 days. This has to be one of those BS simulation where Russia magically throws their whole army at Poland and leaves the rest of Russia undefended. The corruption in Ukraine is what makes Russians feel at home there, but lets not diminish the Russians influence there.


Ask the Poles, it was their exercise.


----------



## suffolkowner (9 Dec 2021)

Altair said:


> Ask the Poles, it's was their exercise.


its a good way to beg for more money and it probably worked as it got them the M1A2v3 order. Just looking at tanks the Russians have about 1000 updated T-80's and T-90's and 2000 T-72's in various stages versus Polands 250 Leo2's and 600 T-72 which are to be replaced by 250 Abrams. But Russia can't bring all that force to bear on Poland or Ukraine without leaving huge expanses of its territory undefended so you can easily cut those numbers in half. If Russia wanted to take on Poland they better do it now before they have to face a force of 250 modernised Leo2 and 250 new Abrams and the 32 F-35's coming online to add to the 100 other fighter jets.


----------



## Czech_pivo (9 Dec 2021)

suffolkowner said:


> its a good way to beg for more money and it probably worked as it got them the M1A2v3 order. Just looking at tanks the Russians have about 1000 updated T-80's and T-90's and 2000 T-72's in various stages versus Polands 250 Leo2's and 600 T-72 which are to be replaced by 250 Abrams. But Russia can't bring all that force to bear on Poland or Ukraine without leaving huge expanses of its territory undefended so you can easily cut those numbers in half. If Russia wanted to take on Poland they better do it now before they have to face a force of 250 modernised Leo2 and 250 new Abrams and the 32 F-35's coming online to add to the 100 other fighter jets.


Good luck to the Russians trying to take and hold Poland.  Won't even happen as they are part of NATO. 

I'm sure a lot of you are aware of the Soviets taking parts of eastern Poland when they were buddy buddy with the Nazi back in September of 1939. But in case you don't know what occurred from November of 1939 until June of 1941, here are some snippets of information.  The Poles have never forgotten (nor will they forgive).


Soviet NKVD sent hundreds of thousands of people from eastern Poland to Siberia and other remote parts of the Soviet Union in four major waves of deportation between 1939 and 1941
The NKVD killed 22,000 Polish military personnel and civilians in the Katyn massacre

There's a great book called 'Without Vodka: Adventures in Wartime Russia' (Amazon.com) written by a Polish-Canadian who was 16yrs old and in the Polish Reserves when the Soviets invaded his part of Poland. Its a great read and talks about his capture and deportation to the SU after trying to smuggle himself across the Rumanian border to try and make it to France. He was to write a second book about this adventures leaving the SU via Iran to join the Free Polish Army in late 1942 but sadly he died before that book could be written.


----------



## Altair (9 Dec 2021)

suffolkowner said:


> its a good way to beg for more money and it probably worked as it got them the M1A2v3 order.



It's really next level 3D chess to have a military exercise,  and be defeated so badly you classify all the results due to surrendering after 5 days.


suffolkowner said:


> Just looking at tanks the Russians have about 1000 updated T-80's and T-90's and 2000 T-72's in various stages versus Polands 250 Leo2's and 600 T-72 which are to be replaced by 250 Abrams. But Russia can't bring all that force to bear on Poland or Ukraine without leaving huge expanses of its territory undefended so you can easily cut those numbers in half. If Russia wanted to take on Poland they better do it now before they have to face a force of 250 modernised Leo2 and 250 new Abrams and the 32 F-35's coming online to add to the 100 other fighter jets.


Unless Poland gets those assets before late January, early February,  I think that's exactly what will happen.

And don't get me wrong, I'm not ragging on Poland. They have some ambitious plans with their military.


----------



## KevinB (9 Dec 2021)

Russia going into Poland would be a Bridge to Far.
   While Europe and the USA may not be willing to go to full fledged war for the Ukraine - Vlad trying to swallow Poland too, would demand a massive response.


----------



## Czech_pivo (9 Dec 2021)

Altair said:


> Ask the Poles, it was their exercise.


This gives another view of the above.









						Simulated results of the Polish Winter 20 Exercise
					

I found this very interesting since the Polish army is one of NATO’s larger armies. The results are…depressing if anywhere near accurate (and I have no reason to believe that they are not. Poland simulated that their own army would cease to exist after 5 days and that Warzawa would be surrounded...




					theanfieldnoise.com
				




Assumes that the Russians achieve near-total surprise, take out all the Baltic states at the sametime and come at Poland through Belarus. 

There is also this - which talks extensively about the mis-information tactics of the Russians that are a constant wave against all countries along their border.









						Military Daily News
					

Daily updates of everything that you need know about what is going on in the military community and abroad including military gear and equipment, breaking news, international news and more.




					www.military.com
				





One thing to remember, what I've posted previously, the Russians rely overwhelmingly on railways for their movement/resupply.  That's fine within Belarus, but the Poles converted ALL railines, except 1 single line running from Krakow to Brest, off the Russian gauge to the 'standard' gauge.  Blow that line and the Russians have to rely on only trucks for all of the supply lines.


----------



## Altair (9 Dec 2021)

KevinB said:


> Russia going into Poland would be a Bridge to Far.
> While Europe and the USA may not be willing to go to full fledged war for the Ukraine - Vlad trying to swallow Poland too, would demand a massive response.


I don't think Russia enters Poland.

But I would bet Russia kicks Poland put of Ukraine.


----------



## Eye In The Sky (9 Dec 2021)

McG said:


> UNIFIER is a capacity building mission, not a deterrence mission.



Uhmm hmm, but are they still not a 'speed bump' of sorts, too?  Intentionally, or otherwise?


----------



## Altair (9 Dec 2021)

Czech_pivo said:


> This gives another view of the above.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I really don't think Poland can convert the lines in Ukraine to standard gauge before the Russians, assuming they are absorbing Ukraine wholesale and Poland gets involved, show up to Polish held Ukraine demanding they leave or else.


----------



## suffolkowner (9 Dec 2021)

Unfortunately the link didn't actually contain any information on the simulation. I'll do some light digging to find it. But how about we run it in reverse and see how long it would take Poland/Ukraine/NATO to reach Moscow? Poland alone has half the tanks and one quarter the fighter jets of Russia. If you take the Apple smart phones out of the Russian fighter pilots hands how are they going to even generate the one sortie a day they could barely manage in Syria? The aggressor always has the advantage especially if the attack is a "surprise", the surprise aspect is the part that is concerning about Russia's large ongoing mobilization exercises as they normalise the troop buildups and movements and acclimatize everyone and lull everyone into a false sense of security.


----------



## Altair (9 Dec 2021)

suffolkowner said:


> Unfortunately the link didn't actually contain any information on the simulation. I'll do some light digging to find it.


Poland buried a lot of the reports for the ex, so best of luck there.


suffolkowner said:


> But how about we run it in reverse and see how long it would take Poland/Ukraine/NATO to reach Moscow? Poland alone has half the tanks and one quarter the fighter jets of Russia.


Poland never makes it.

Ukraine never makes it.

NATO never tries it.

There, simulation over.


suffolkowner said:


> If you take the Apple smart phones out of the Russian fighter pilots hands how are they going to even generate the one sortie a day they could barely manage in Syria?


GLONASS, no?


suffolkowner said:


> The aggressor always has the advantage especially if the attack is a "surprise", the surprise aspect is the part that is concerning about Russia's large ongoing mobilization exercises as they normalise the troop buildups and movements and acclimatize everyone and lull everyone into a false sense of security.


I don't even know why we are considering this a surprise.

I bet dollars to donuts this is coming around the Olympics.

As for any Polish, Russian flare up in Ukraine assuming Ukraine falls, again, it likely won't be a surprise. Russia is going to show up in Polish occupied Ukraine with overwhelming force and a deadline for Poland to bug off. Washington and Moscow talk, Washington talks to Warsaw, Poland leaves.


----------



## Czech_pivo (9 Dec 2021)

Altair said:


> I really don't think Poland can convert the lines in Ukraine to standard gauge before the Russians, assuming they are absorbing Ukraine wholesale and Poland gets involved, show up to Polish held Ukraine demanding they leave or else.





Altair said:


> Poland buried a lot of the reports for the ex, so best of luck there.
> 
> Poland never makes it.
> 
> ...


Possible, but if the US/France/UK go the UN route and establish a UN peacekeeping mandate it stops RUSSIA cold and keeps a rump Ukraine that Poland marched into, alive and a constant irritation for Russia.
And don’t say it can’t happen, they ignored Russia in the ex-Yugo and marched into Sarajevo and pushed the Serbs back.  NATO also bombed Belgrade, Russia’s baby brother and there was little Russia could do about it.


----------



## Altair (9 Dec 2021)

Czech_pivo said:


> Possible, but if the US/France/UK go the UN route and establish a UN peacekeeping mandate it stops RUSSIA cold and keeps a rump Ukraine that Poland marched into, alive and a constant irritation for Russia.


I'm sure Russia wouldn't veto that. China too. I'm sure that the permanent security council members with veto power will allow the UN to stifle their ambitions.


Czech_pivo said:


> And don’t say it can’t happen, they ignored Russia in the ex-Yugo and marched into Sarajevo and pushed the Serbs back.  NATO also bombed Belgrade, Russia’s baby brother and there was little Russia could do about it.


The west of the 90s and the west of today are barely comparable and the Russia of the 90s and the Russia of today are barely comparable. 

The west of today wants nothing to do with fighting. They speak loudly and carry a small stick. They got bullied out of Afghanistan by the bloody Taliban, they are threatening Russia with...sanctions. Invade Ukraine and we will make banking harder for you! 

Dear god, its pathetic. But it's the reality.


----------



## Retired AF Guy (9 Dec 2021)

Czech_pivo said:


> Simple, two letters - EU.
> 
> One is in the EU and one is not.
> One has to follow their rules, regulations and guidelines and one does not.
> ...


Also, don't forget that Romania gained its independence in the mid-late 19th century while Ukraine did not gain its independence until the fall of th USSR in the early 90s.


----------



## suffolkowner (9 Dec 2021)

Altair said:


> Poland buried a lot of the reports for the ex, so best of luck there.
> *Yes but what I've gathered so far is that Poland had prepositioned 4 divisions east of the Vistula river to guard the Suwalki Gap.  If this is their actual plan than I have no words that could accurately describe how asinine that would be*
> Poland never makes it.
> *Why?*
> ...


----------



## Eye In The Sky (9 Dec 2021)

I'm far from an expert, but I think you overestimate Russia, and underestimate NATO.


Altair said:


> I'm sure Russia wouldn't veto that. China too. I'm sure that the permanent security council members with veto power will allow the UN to stifle their ambitions.
> 
> The west of the 90s and the west of today are barely comparable and the Russia of the 90s and the Russia of today are barely comparable.
> 
> ...



I don't consider the total of conventional and Special Forces of the US to be a 'small stick'.  Seriously. 

I doubt China OR Russia thinks "small stick", either...


----------



## suffolkowner (9 Dec 2021)

Eye In The Sky said:


> I'm far from an expert, but I think you overestimate Russia, and underestimate NATO.
> 
> 
> I don't consider the total of conventional and Special Forces of the US to be a 'small stick'.  Seriously.
> ...


Unfortunately I can understand Altairs position as the US and or NATO could put an end to this pretty easily with some strong words backed up by some force movements, but instead crickets


----------



## Altair (9 Dec 2021)

Eye In The Sky said:


> I'm far from an expert, but I think you overestimate Russia, and underestimate NATO.
> 
> 
> I don't consider the total of conventional and Special Forces of the US to be a 'small stick'.  Seriously.
> ...


Its a small stick if you are not willing to use it.



> Biden says US troops in Ukraine are off the table but promises withering sanctions if Russia invades | CNN Politics
> 
> 
> President Joe Biden on Wednesday ruled out sending US troops to Ukraine to defend the country from a Russian invasion a day after laying out the consequences for such an incursion during a stern phone call with President Vladimir Putin.
> ...


You know what a small stick is? Sanctions.


> "That is not on the table," he said. "We have a moral obligation and a legal obligation to our NATO allies if they were to attack under Article 5, that's a sacred obligation. That obligation does not extend to ... Ukraine."
> Instead, Biden said he told Putin in direct terms that the economic consequences of an incursion would be devastating.


----------



## Eye In The Sky (9 Dec 2021)

Altair said:


> Its a small stick if you are not willing to use it.
> 
> 
> You know what a small stick is? Sanctions.



A 2 x 4 sitting on the ground next to me is the same size when I pick it up and swing it at your head.  There's a difference between not having a 2 x 4, and not wanting to use it if you don't have to.  

Use the sanctions if possible to prevent WWIII.  I'm not itching to start flying around with warshots in the bombbay, personally...I don't have anything against being tough _and_ smart...


----------



## Altair (9 Dec 2021)

@suffolkowner 





> *Yes but what I've gathered so far is that Poland had prepositioned 4 divisions east of the Vistula river to guard the Suwalki Gap. If this is their actual plan than I have no words that could accurately describe how asinine that would be*


I don't get the logic behind that either to be honest.


> *Why?*


The Polish army is what, 150k? The Russians can likely bring double that to bear on any Polish attacking force, and this is assuming Poland isn't hampered by the logistics of attacking Russia.



> *Why?*


Ukraine can barely fight the separatists in the Donbass, they cannot attack Russia, get real.



> *No take a look at Russian air operations in Syria again*


I don't know what I'm looking for, if you want to share something please share it.




> *The surprise is when the expected exercise isn't an exercise anymore*


You think Biden and Putin are talking because of this "exercise"?




> *I hope not but it would be the biggest mistake Putin could make and the end of modern Russia*


You're betting on Ukraine coming out on top of a Russia Ukraine war? You should put some money down on betting sites, you would make a lot of money.




> *Good luck to Russia fighting Poland and Ukraine at the same time*


Russia Beats the hell out of Ukraine, when Ukraine is done, they turn to focus on whatever Polish forces are in Ukrainian territory.

Not that hard of a plan.


----------



## Altair (9 Dec 2021)

Eye In The Sky said:


> A 2 x 4 sitting on the ground next to me is the same size when I pick it up and swing it at your head.  There's a difference between not having a 2 x 4, and not wanting to use it if you don't have to.


Depends on your goals. If the goal is to prevent Ukraine from being invaded, its a small stick that wont do squat. Russia doesn't give a damn about sanctions.

If your goal is to punish Russia for conquering Ukraine, then sure, slightly bigger stick. Shame about Ukraine though.


Eye In The Sky said:


> Use the sanctions if possible to prevent WWIII.  I'm not itching to start flying around with warshots in the bombbay, personally...I don't have anything against being tough _and_ smart...


Smart.

If only France and the UK used sanctions against Germany in 1939, they could have prevented WW2


----------



## Eye In The Sky (9 Dec 2021)

Altair said:


> If only France and the UK used sanctions against Germany in 1939, they could have prevented WW2



Is that a realistic comparison?  If we're going to use WWII references, can I speak to the will of the nation in the US when push comes to shove?  Pearl Harbor maybe?

IF Russian can just 'do what they want unchecked'....what are they waiting for?  No one can stop them, they don't care about the West/NATO...so, why wait?


----------



## Czech_pivo (9 Dec 2021)

Altair said:


> Its a small stick if you are not willing to use it.
> 
> 
> You know what a small stick is? Sanctions.


How many of you are aware of this Brigade? This past summer they did joint maneuvers with US troops outside of Lwow.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithuanian–Polish–Ukrainian_Brigade

This will also show the lengths Poland and Lithuania is going to in regards to the Ukraine.









						Lublin Triangle - Wikipedia
					






					en.m.wikipedia.org


----------



## Altair (9 Dec 2021)

Eye In The Sky said:


> Is that a realistic comparison?  If we're going to use WWII references, can I speak to the will of the nation in the US when push comes to shove?  Pearl Harbor maybe?
> 
> IF Russian can just 'do what they want unchecked'....what are they waiting for?  No one can stop them, they don't care about the West/NATO...so, why wait?


Circle back to this come March, if Ukraine is a smoking ruin I think its fair to say that they didn't wait.


----------



## Eye In The Sky (9 Dec 2021)

I'm not asking about "this March";  I am asking you your opinion - NATO and the US are of no consequence to Russia, Russian forces will wipe out all opposition with ease....so.  Why is Russia waiting?  Why did they wait last week, yesterday, and today?


----------



## Altair (9 Dec 2021)

Eye In The Sky said:


> I'm not asking about "this March";  I am asking you your opinion - NATO and the US are of no consequence to Russia, Russian forces will wipe out all opposition with ease....so.  Why is Russia waiting?  Why did they wait last week, yesterday, and today?


Several reasons. 

Putin likes doing his ops during the olympics. Not sure if its a fetish or a strategy at this point, you need to ask him. 

Secondly, Putin seems the set the ground. He uses the forces in Donbass to harass the Ukrainian forces. He builds up and demobilizes all the time to make it so that Ukraine doesn't know what is going to happen. 

He might have wanted to see if Ukraine got the lesson after the Crimea and Donbass, and give them time to return to the fold.

Lastly, he needs to understand his opponents. Maybe he doesn't do this under trump. Maybe he doesn't do this under Merkel. But neither of them are around right now, so maybe that's why.


----------



## Altair (9 Dec 2021)

Czech_pivo said:


> How many of you are aware of this Brigade? This past summer they did joint maneuvers with US troops outside of Lwow.
> 
> https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithuanian–Polish–Ukrainian_Brigade
> 
> ...


If this was really a thing, wouldn't it make more sense to send them to Ukraine now to make any Russian invasion harder?


----------



## Czech_pivo (9 Dec 2021)

Altair said:


> Lastly, he needs to understand his opponents. Maybe he doesn't do this under trump. Maybe he doesn't do this under Merkel. But neither of them are around right now, so maybe that's why.


Maybe it’s because he’s a psychopath who’s 69yrs old and is realizing that he’s not going to live forever.
Maybe he’s realizing that Russia’s population is lower today than what is was back in 1989.
Maybe he’s realizing that Russia’s death rate is higher than it’s birth rate and the combined affects of this means that every year Russia is actually getting weaker and weaker.


----------



## Czech_pivo (9 Dec 2021)

Altair said:


> If this was really a thing, wouldn't it make more sense to send them to Ukraine now to make any Russian invasion harder?


Why send it now? No reason to send it at this point.


----------



## Altair (9 Dec 2021)

Czech_pivo said:


> Maybe it’s because he’s a psychopath who’s 69yrs old and is realizing that he’s not going to live forever.
> Maybe he’s realizing that Russia’s population is lower today than what is was back in 1989.
> Maybe he’s realizing that Russia’s death rate is higher than it’s birth rate and the combined affects of this means that every year Russia is actually getting weaker and weaker.


Something I learned about the matrix movies back in the day is the why  matters a lot less than the is.

Why Russia might invade Ukraine matter a hell of a lot less than Ukraine being invaded.



Czech_pivo said:


> Why send it now? No reason to send it at this point.


Deterrence.


----------



## suffolkowner (9 Dec 2021)

If I was Ukraine or Poland I'd blow all the oil and gas lines and yes Biden is screwing this up big time. What is the point of spending a trillion dollars on your defence establishment and having troops in the UK, Germany, and Italy nevermind S.Korea and Japan. Why all the tough talk about China when you can't even stand up to Russia?


Altair said:


> The Polish army is what, 150k? The Russians can likely bring double that to bear on any Polish attacking force, and this is assuming Poland isn't hampered by the logistics of attacking Russia.


Double thats it. The point is the attacking force has the advantage but theres a huge difference between taking ground and holding it


Altair said:


> Ukraine can barely fight the separatists in the Donbass, they cannot attack Russia, get real.


Ukraine has had no trouble with the separatists the only thing that swung the tide was the introduction of Russian forces. The numbers say different


Altair said:


> I don't know what I'm looking for, if you want to share something please share it.


You seem pretty confident in Russian superiority to not know that they were navigating by smartphone and could barely generate a sortie a day


Altair said:


> You think Biden and Putin are talking because of this "exercise"?


They're talking because of Putin's ongoing exercises right? Why do you think they're talking? There's a reason and impetus behind the talking what do you think the reason is? The point was how do you tell the difference between an exercise and the real thing?


Altair said:


> You're betting on Ukraine coming out on top of a Russia Ukraine war? You should put some money down on betting sites, you would make a lot of money.


No I'm betting on war having consequences. I mean maybe the Russian army is so awesome that they are going to conquer a country of 40 million in a matter of days and then hold it for all time with not one service member lost


Altair said:


> Russia Beats the hell out of Ukraine, when Ukraine is done, they turn to focus on whatever Polish forces are in Ukrainian territory.
> 
> Not that hard of a plan.


It's easy when you say it fast enough. Sort of like how easy every other war in history has been. I mean the US should only have needed a couple of divisions in Vietnam right?


----------



## Czech_pivo (9 Dec 2021)

Here’s a good article to have a read on Putin. It’s from October of 2014, but you get a sense of what Putin’s thinking was back then and what he was proposing to Poland back then. He knows the lay of the land in Poland, from a historical perspective, he’s smart. Because of what he suggested back in 2014, he’s aware that the Poles very well may move into Lwow if Ukraine is going under the Russian yoke.









						Putin does think about partitioning Ukraine
					

The rights and wrongs of Sikorski’s statement that Putin suggested partitioning Ukraine to Donald Tusk.




					www.politico.eu


----------



## Altair (9 Dec 2021)

suffolkowner said:


> If I was Ukraine or Poland I'd blow all the oil and gas lines and yes Biden is screwing this up big time. What is the point of spending a trillion dollars on your defence establishment and having troops in the UK, Germany, and Italy nevermind S.Korea and Japan. Why all the tough talk about China when you can't even stand up to Russia?


That's what is being laid bare.


suffolkowner said:


> Double thats it. The point is the attacking force has the advantage but theres a huge difference between taking ground and holding it


There is. But I don't think Poland can take or hold much ground in an offensive against Russia.


suffolkowner said:


> Ukraine has had no trouble with the separatists the only thing that swung the tide was the introduction of Russian forces. The numbers say different


Right, the introduction of Russian forces. So I doubt they would be able to attack those same Russian forces. 


suffolkowner said:


> You seem pretty confident in Russian superiority to not know that they were navigating by smartphone and could barely generate a sortie a day


Its less that I am confident in Russian superiority than I am doubtful of the abilities of Ukraine or Poland. 


suffolkowner said:


> They're talking because of Putin's ongoing exercises right? Why do you think they're talking? There's a reason and impetus behind the talking what do you think the reason is? The point was how do you tell the difference between an exercise and the real thing?


I think they are talking because this time looks a hell lot more like and invasion than an exercise. These russians are not in the field doing maneuvers right now, they are building up.


suffolkowner said:


> No I'm betting on war having consequences. I mean maybe the Russian army is so awesome that they are going to conquer a country of 40 million in a matter of days and then hold it for all time with not one service member lost


Wars have consequences and they go both ways. Russia may lose a lot of men in any attempt, but so long as they win I believe they will find the cost worth it. 

Thats the difference between them and us right now. 


suffolkowner said:


> It's easy when you say it fast enough. Sort of like how easy every other war in history has been. I mean the US should only have needed a couple of divisions in Vietnam right?


If vietnam shared a border with the USA and the USA viewed vietnam as a historic part of their country, yes, yes a couple of more divisions could have done the job.


----------



## Altair (9 Dec 2021)

Czech_pivo said:


> Here’s a good article to have a read on Putin. It’s from October of 2014, but you get a sense of what Putin’s thinking was back then and what he was proposing to Poland back then. He knows the lay of the land in Poland, from a historical perspective, he’s smart. Because of what he suggested back in 2014, he’s aware that the Poles very well may move into Lwow if Ukraine is going under the Russian yoke.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


If Putin thinks Lwow is a Polish city you may have a good point.


----------



## MilEME09 (9 Dec 2021)

Thing about Russia we got to keep in mind is that their armed forces are primarily conscripts. Georgia, Ukraine, etc.... have been primarily Spetznaz, the VDV, and other elite professional elements of the Russian Armed forces. While the Western military district has likely been rotating troops in and out of Ukraine for the past few years, the vast majority of the armed Forces of the Russian federation are Green conscripts with little experiance who would likely get routed by their more well trained, and better equipped western counter parts. Doesn't matter if they out number our tanks 10 to 1 if they lack the training and just drive them through open ground and get wiped out. Russia, while slowly reforming the armed forces to be more professional would likely have it's butt handed to it in a conventional fight once their elite units were tied down due to the lack of experience of their other troops.


----------



## Altair (9 Dec 2021)

MilEME09 said:


> Thing about Russia we got to keep in mind is that their armed forces are primarily conscripts. Georgia, Ukraine, etc.... have been primarily Spetznaz, the VDV, and other elite professional elements of the Russian Armed forces. While the Western military district has likely been rotating troops in and out of Ukraine for the past few years, the vast majority of the armed Forces of the Russian federation are Green conscripts with little experiance who would likely get routed by their more well trained, and better equipped western counter parts. Doesn't matter if they out number our tanks 10 to 1 if they lack the training and just drive them through open ground and get wiped out. Russia, while slowly reforming the armed forces to be more professional would likely have it's butt handed to it in a conventional fight once their elite units were tied down due to the lack of experience of their other troops.


Last I heard Russia had 300k conscripts and 600k contract soldiers.

If they are invading Ukraine, I doubt its the conscripts doing the heavy lifting.


----------



## Jarnhamar (9 Dec 2021)

I've seen a couple interesting videos a little while back of Russian soldiers dressing like trash conscripts then changing their dress and pulling out modern and seemingly high end equipment. Possible they play into the just a bunch of conscripts stereotypes. 

Putin vs Biden? The US won't be able to Murder-Drone some local farmer and feign competence (e.g retribution for the Afghanistan airfield attack) 

In any case this will be a fablous opportunity for Canada to send peace keepers. Canada's back or whatever that slogan was.


----------



## Altair (9 Dec 2021)

Jarnhamar said:


> I've seen a couple interesting videos a little while back of Russian soldiers dressing like trash conscripts then changing their dress and pulling out modern and seemingly high end equipment. Possible they play into the just a bunch of conscripts stereotypes.


Could be that. 

What I do know is Russia calls in about 150k conscripts a year for a 2 year term of service, meaning 300k conscript soldiers at any given time. 
600k contract soldiers is still the bulk of their forces and thats what we should be worrying about. Now one can talk about the quality of the average russian contract soldier, but I bet its on par or better than what Ukraine has, and Russia is going to be sending a lot of them.


Jarnhamar said:


> Putin vs Biden? The US won't be able to Murder-Drone some local farmer and feign competence (e.g retribution for the Afghanistan airfield attack)
> 
> In any case this will be a fablous opportunity for Canada to send peace keepers. Canada's back or whatever that slogan was.


Can you name the last time Peacekeepers were sent to stop one of the to 10 militaries on the planet?

I think the next time will be the first time.


----------



## Eye In The Sky (9 Dec 2021)

Altair said:


> Several reasons.
> 
> Putin likes doing his ops during the olympics. Not sure if its a fetish or a strategy at this point, you need to ask him.
> 
> ...



It is at all possible that the things you're discounting as deterrents are actually seen by Putin and his 'trusted circle' (if there is such as thing...) as deterrents, and they do not see themselves as overwhelmingly powerful as you do?

Even a teeny, tiny possibility?


----------



## Altair (10 Dec 2021)

Eye In The Sky said:


> It is at all possible that the things you're discounting as deterrents are actually seen by Putin and his 'trusted circle' (if there is such as thing...) as deterrents, and they do not see themselves as overwhelmingly powerful as you do?
> 
> Even a teeny, tiny possibility?


I guess we find out the answer in the new year.


----------



## suffolkowner (10 Dec 2021)

Altair said:


> That's what is being laid bare.
> 
> There is. But I don't think Poland can take or hold much ground in an offensive against Russia.
> 
> ...





Altair said:


> That's what is being laid bare.


Yes on this we agree


Altair said:


> There is. But I don't think Poland can take or hold much ground in an offensive against Russia.


I dont see why they couldn't do serious damage for the first few days of the push. They wouldn't be able to sustain it but neither can Russia


Altair said:


> Right, the introduction of Russian forces. So I doubt they would be able to attack those same Russian forces.


It took a massive Russian intervention against a completely different Ukrainian force that was actually dominated by volunteers. So if Russia had trouble with a volunteer militia 8 years ago yeah I think its going to be harder this time


Altair said:


> Its less that I am confident in Russian superiority than I am doubtful of the abilities of Ukraine or Poland.


I think the Russian military is a paper tiger. 


Altair said:


> I think they are talking because this time looks a hell lot more like and invasion than an exercise. These russians are not in the field doing maneuvers right now, they are building up.


Yes thats the exercise


Altair said:


> Wars have consequences and they go both ways. Russia may lose a lot of men in any attempt, but so long as they win I believe they will find the cost worth it.
> 
> Thats the difference between them and us right now.


They won't though its a bankrupt country that was barely hanging on before Covid dependent on Soviet era oil and gas discoveries that they have struggled to expand on


Altair said:


> If vietnam shared a border with the USA and the USA viewed vietnam as a historic part of their country, yes, yes a couple of more divisions could have done the job.


The US had 5 divisions in Vietnam


----------



## Altair (10 Dec 2021)

suffolkowner said:


> Yes on this we agree


I'm not sure if Trump would be a better option in this case, but I know without a doubt Biden is messing up.


suffolkowner said:


> I dont see why they couldn't do serious damage for the first few days of the push. They wouldn't be able to sustain it but neither can Russia


Any surprise attack will do some amount of damage. Its what happens after that. I still think sheer weight of decently trained numbers can do wonders.


suffolkowner said:


> It took a massive Russian intervention against a completely different Ukrainian force that was actually dominated by volunteers. So if Russia had trouble with a volunteer militia 8 years ago yeah I think its going to be harder this time


I suppose we shall see what happens if they do butt heads, but I don't think the Ukrainian regular army matches up well against the Russian regular army. 

Especially on the indirect fire front, the EW front, the air superiority front.


suffolkowner said:


> I think the Russian military is a paper tiger.


Maybe back in 2008, but Russia has been investing a ton into their forces since then and I don't think Putin would commit them unless he was sure he could win.


suffolkowner said:


> Yes thats the exercise
> 
> They won't though its a bankrupt country that was barely hanging on before Covid dependent on Soviet era oil and gas discoveries that they have struggled to expand on


Have you seen the price of oil recently? I know its a bit paradoxical, but just work under the assumption that if Alberta is feeling pretty good about its economy and finances, Russia is as well. 



			https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/calgary-opinion-alberta-fiscal-update-oil-prices-deficit-tombe-1.6269600
		




> Alberta's latest budget update opened with what is surely one of the greatest understatements in provincial fiscal history:
> 
> "The Alberta government fiscal situation," it read, "has changed materially from the forecast presented in _Budget 2021_."
> 
> ...



Yeah, Russia is feeling pretty good right now, far from broke.


suffolkowner said:


> The US had 5 divisions in Vietnam


Again, if Vietnam shared a border with the USA and the USA felt it historically belonged to them, America would not have lost.

Those same factors are playing into Russian hands.


----------



## suffolkowner (10 Dec 2021)

Altair said:


> Any surprise attack will do some amount of damage. Its what happens after that. I still think sheer weight of decently trained numbers can do wonders.


the Russian military as a whole is not a professional army. Its non conscript can be probably be cut in half


Altair said:


> I suppose we shall see what happens if they do butt heads, but I don't think the Ukrainian regular army matches up well against the Russian regular army.


I doubt they're much less professional, they'll know why they're fighting


Altair said:


> Especially on the indirect fire front, the EW front, the air superiority front.


indirect fires dont look bad to me, the Ukrainians aren't going to be surprised by EW, the air superiority is a huge problem if the Russians can get their planes in the air


Altair said:


> Maybe back in 2008, but Russia has been investing a ton into their forces since then and I don't think Putin would commit them unless he was sure he could win.


He will because hes an egomaniac. Do you think people tell Putin the truth or what he wants to hear? The investment isn't half what Ukraine has done with the Lviv and Kharkiv plants delivering over 5 tanks a month each. Russia meanwhile has struggled to get its vaunted T-14,T-15, Su-57 delivered


Altair said:


> Have you seen the price of oil recently? I know its a bit paradoxical, but just work under the assumption that if Alberta is feeling pretty good about its economy and finances, Russia is as well.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/calgary-opinion-alberta-fiscal-update-oil-prices-deficit-tombe-1.6269600


The problem is that oil money isn't going into or helping the Russian economy or people. Russia remains the peculiar backwater that its been for ???


Altair said:


> Again, if Vietnam shared a border with the USA and the USA felt it historically belonged to them, America would not have lost.
> 
> Those same factors are playing into Russian hands.


The sheer effort required is huge. I dont think Russia can sustain it. The US didn't lose due to lack of personnel in Vietnam and their 5 divisions were dwarfed by the contributions from other nations. The Russians have shown no potential for sustaining operations. They are not going to surge enough troops into a confrontation with Ukraine or sustain it the 7 active divisions of the Western Military District aren't going to cut it


----------



## Altair (10 Dec 2021)

suffolkowner said:


> the Russian military as a whole is not a professional army. Its non conscript can be probably be cut in half


again, most numbers I'm seeing is 1/3 is conscript. That still leaves a lot of contract soldiers.


suffolkowner said:


> I doubt they're much less professional, they'll know why they're fighting


This is true. 


suffolkowner said:


> indirect fires dont look bad to me, the Ukrainians aren't going to be surprised by EW, the air superiority is a huge problem if the Russians can get their planes in the air


I mean, I suppose we shall see what happens if this goes hot, it will be a very good evaluation tool as to the state of the Russian army and air force.

But I do remember Americans embedded with Ukrainian troops saying the EW component of the Russians were miles ahead of what the US was expecting.


suffolkowner said:


> He will because hes an egomaniac. Do you think people tell Putin the truth or what he wants to hear? The investment isn't half what Ukraine has done with the Lviv and Kharkiv plants delivering over 5 tanks a month each. Russia meanwhile has struggled to get its vaunted T-14,T-15, Su-57 delivered


I don't think Putin is Stalin, I don't think the Russian republic is the soviet union. I think that Putin is analytical and to be analytical you need accurate numbers. 

He's not going to risk everything on a bad hand, he has to be pretty confident that he can achieve results. And if NATO and the West wasn't that scared of the Russian forces they wouldn't be trying so hard to prevent this potential conflict from happening.


suffolkowner said:


> The problem is that oil money isn't going into or helping the Russian economy or people. Russia remains the peculiar backwater that its been for ???


I disagree completely. This goes right into their economy. People, not so much outside of some social programs, but economy? This is a huge boost. Again, Alberta is feeling pretty good these days and their economy isn't as dependent on oil and gas as Russia is.


suffolkowner said:


> The sheer effort required is huge. I dont think Russia can sustain it. The US didn't lose due to lack of personnel in Vietnam and their 5 divisions were dwarfed by the contributions from other nations. The Russians have shown no potential for sustaining operations. They are not going to surge enough troops into a confrontation with Ukraine or sustain it the 7 active divisions of the Western Military District aren't going to cut it


We haven't seen what the Russians can do in terms of sustaining operations in almost 14 years. 

A lot can change in 14 Years.


----------



## KevinB (10 Dec 2021)

Altair said:


> Can you name the last time Peacekeepers were sent to stop one of the to 10 militaries on the planet?
> 
> I think the next time will be the first time.


Korea (not peacekeepers but...)


----------



## Altair (10 Dec 2021)

KevinB said:


> Korea (not peacekeepers but...)


That was the last time a UN combat mission stopped a top 10 military in the world, but as you said, no blue helmets there.


----------



## daftandbarmy (10 Dec 2021)

Altair said:


> That was the last time a UN combat mission stopped a top 10 military in the world, but as you said, no blue helmets there.



The last time was probably the first time: Suez 1956 when they were deployed to protect a 3rd world middle eastern country from two European powers.


----------



## Altair (10 Dec 2021)

daftandbarmy said:


> The last time was probably the first time: Suez 1956 when they were deployed to protect a 3rd world middle eastern country from two European powers.


Did they really?

Or was it Washington that stopped them, and the peacekeepers filled the void. 

I don't remember learning about peacekeepers stopping Britain and France.


----------



## Czech_pivo (10 Dec 2021)

This is article beautifully lays out what I was talking about earlier about my times working in the Czech Republic in the mid 90s' and the talk about the 'lost generation' and how it was the young people who were the catalyst for change.  It talks about a small Ukrainian town, close to the frontlines with the Donbas separatists and the people's work towards a better place to live.









						Ukraine’s New York, a war-torn town where some shun Russia
					

In Eastern Ukraine, one small town is fighting for survival in the shadow of Europe’s bloodiest armed conflict.




					www.aljazeera.com


----------



## The Bread Guy (10 Dec 2021)

Jarnhamar said:


> ... this will be a fablous opportunity for Canada to send peace keepers ...


Don't think that *WASN'T* considered at one point ...

Fun fact:  if Team Blue won the 2019 election, the current leader said during the campaign they'd have started working on just that idea


----------



## KevinB (10 Dec 2021)

The Bread Guy said:


> Don't think that *WASN'T* considered at one point ...


Terrible idea then and now.
   Any Peacekeeping force in the Ukraine would need credible AA and AT weapons - as well as a rather robust ability to deal with agitators.
 Furthermore a NATO country sending troops wouldn't be viewed by Russia as Neutral - which while I think it GREAT probably wouldn't really add any stability - you'd be better off sending the same troops into Defensive positions on the Ukraine side of the "DMZ"


----------



## OldSolduer (10 Dec 2021)

KevinB said:


> Terrible idea then and now.
> Any Peacekeeping force in the Ukraine would need credible AA and AT weapons - as well as a rather robust ability to deal with agitators.
> Furthermore a NATO country sending troops wouldn't be viewed by Russia as Neutral - which while I think it GREAT probably wouldn't really add any stability - you'd be better off sending the same troops into Defensive positions on the Ukraine side of the "DMZ"


I concur - Russia would automatically assume Canadians are in the pocket of the USA.


----------



## Czech_pivo (10 Dec 2021)

OldSolduer said:


> I concur - Russia would automatically assume Canadians are in the pocket of the USA.


We're now too small to fit in their pocket, we'd be lost in there, never to be found.


----------



## McG (10 Dec 2021)

Eye In The Sky said:


> Uhmm hmm, but are they still not a 'speed bump' of sorts, too?  Intentionally, or otherwise?


It has been discussed elsewhere in this thread, UNIFIER is a small, mostly unarmed mission. They are not a speed bump of an sort.


----------



## RangerRay (10 Dec 2021)

KevinB said:


> Terrible idea then and now.
> Any Peacekeeping force in the Ukraine would need credible AA and AT weapons - as well as a rather robust ability to deal with agitators.
> Furthermore a NATO country sending troops wouldn't be viewed by Russia as Neutral - which while I think it GREAT probably wouldn't really add any stability - you'd be better off sending the same troops into Defensive positions on the Ukraine side of the "DMZ"


Never mind that Moscow already views us suspiciously with our huge and influential Ukrainian diaspora.


----------



## daftandbarmy (10 Dec 2021)

BLUF: It's complicated....


Why Russia deployed more troops at Ukraine's border

Is the situation on the Russian-Ukrainian border threatening to escalate? What the Russian leadership is thinking and how the West should react

Russia has deployed around 100,000 troops on the border with Ukraine. Why is the Kremlin doing that? Part of the answer is certainly that Russia wants to keeping us guessing – against the backdrop of a solid threat. Moscow itself, however, has by no means decided on its next steps. We are seeing a classic pattern of foreign policy by current Russian leadership: they prepare several options for action and then see what works. How things actually proceed depends crucially on the Western reaction and attitude – and on how clearly it is communicated.

Is the Kremlin playing Hazard? To a certain extent, of course. The stakes are high. But in the end, even in Moscow, realpolitik rules, regardless of whether it is different from ours. The leadership doesn’t want to risk two things: a far-reaching military conflict with hardly foreseeable consequences, and Russia’s own power at home.

The possibility that Russia is prepared to attack Ukraine in the hope of a limited confrontation cannot be ruled out. Of course, it will not simply attack. Perhaps it ‘will have no choice but to come to the aid of oppressed compatriots in the neighbouring country’. But to achieve that, one can first raise tensions in the neighbouring country and then draw new red lines.

Russia’s motives

There is probably a mix of motives behind the Russian decision to move so much military power to the border with Ukraine....
Why Russia deployed more troops at Ukraine's border?


----------



## Good2Golf (10 Dec 2021)

Czech_pivo said:


> We're now too small to fit in their pocket, we'd be lost in there, never to be found.


Pocket lint?


----------



## Czech_pivo (10 Dec 2021)

Good2Golf said:


> Pocket lint?


Nose hair?


----------



## childs56 (10 Dec 2021)

The only real deterrence in the area to keep Russia out would be the deployment of Nuclear Weapons along their borders with the order to use if they cross the border.  Or 500,000- 100,000,000 well equipped, motivated trained troops along the border with orders to repel any Russian incursion by any and all conventional means.  
Russia has far superior forces within spitting distance of their border then we do. 
They have better Electronic warfare capability then we do. They still run a majority old style manual equipment where we replaced our main forces with electronic ran equipment, all the shielding in the world does not help much under a steady EMP. Half the time it doesn't work on its own.  

We can lay mines, dig ditches etc, they have more Engineer assets that work then we do. They have been ramping that assets up over the past few years. 

They outgun us in All types of Artillery, they out tank us based on numbers, they out Air Defense us with ground radar and missiles,  Despite our guys taking tank after tank out during the Gulf War Russia has a bit more training, bit more ability and bit more pride then the Iraqi Military. 
They have cluster bombs in stock issued, they have MLRS both dumb and smart in use and effective and willing to use these. 
They are willing to use any and all equipment daily except Nuclear/Biological/Chemical at this point and may use any combination of the three if pushed. Are we? 

We simply do not have the equipment or manpower to engage with Russia on any level then small skirmishes. If we think we do we are kidding ourselves. 
Any significant build up of Forces along the Border on our part would certainly be a escalation of force and may trigger a more negative response. 

Hopefully our defence budget swells and we can buy the equipment we need and want, justify the spending for defence of Europe.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart (10 Dec 2021)

KevinB said:


> Terrible idea then and now.
> Any Peacekeeping force in the Ukraine would need credible AA and AT weapons - as well as a rather robust ability to deal with agitators.
> Furthermore a NATO country sending troops wouldn't be viewed by Russia as Neutral - which while I think it GREAT probably wouldn't really add any stability - you'd be better off sending the same troops into Defensive positions on the Ukraine side of the "DMZ"


I can picture it now, a multinational peacekeeping force of Canadians and Belorussians 😄


----------



## Czech_pivo (10 Dec 2021)

Humphrey Bogart said:


> I can picture it now, a multinational peacekeeping force of Canadians and Belorussians 😄


And I know which side would be pulling out the baseball bats to 'steal' supplies.....


----------



## The Bread Guy (10 Dec 2021)

McG said:


> It has been discussed elsewhere in this thread, UNIFIER is a small, mostly unarmed mission. They are not a speed bump of an sort.


They're only an "incidental" speed bump/trip wire at most - something a government could wield as an excuse if anything happened to them because of Russian actions (think what would happen if the same number of Russians got hurt in some organized action/violence in Ukraine or the Baltics).  But only a _sliver_ of speed-bump-edness at most ...


----------



## KevinB (10 Dec 2021)

The Bread Guy said:


> They're only an "incidental" speed bump/trip wire at most - something a government could wield as an excuse if anything happened to them because of Russian actions (think what would happen if the same number of Russians got hurt in some organized action/violence in Ukraine or the Baltics).  But only a _sliver_ of speed-bump-edness at most ...


If some Americans got killed by Russians in the Ukraine - the government couldn't do much but react heavily - the public is already ready to lynch Sleepy Joe - and the same goes on both side of the aisle since Afghanistan.


----------



## McG (10 Dec 2021)

The Bread Guy said:


> They're only an "incidental" speed bump/trip wire at most - something a government could wield as an excuse if anything happened to them because of Russian actions (think what would happen if the same number of Russians got hurt in some organized action/violence in Ukraine or the Baltics).  But only a _sliver_ of speed-bump-edness at most ...


The eFP in the baltics has a mandate to fight.  If Russia invades the Baltics, then the eFP will go into the fight and Canadian casalties will be inevitable. That is a trip wire.
If UNIFIER does not have a mandate to fight, then the population of Canadian tourists in Ukraine is more of a trip wire than the CAF mission.


----------



## Kat Stevens (10 Dec 2021)

Good2Golf said:


> Pocket lint?


Except for the RCN, they're naval lint...


----------



## daftandbarmy (10 Dec 2021)

Kat Stevens said:


> Except for the RCN, they're naval lint...


----------



## Rifleman62 (11 Dec 2021)

Just how well trained is the Russian army? (And are its logistics up to the task?)​Sep 29, 2021


----------



## The Bread Guy (13 Dec 2021)

If this is true:  "Nothing for ya right now, but once you fix bayonets, we should have something to help you out."


> The Biden administration prepared a $200 million package of additional military assistance for Ukraine in recent weeks but held off on delivering the aid despite appeals from Kyiv and some lawmakers, according to three people familiar with the issue.
> 
> A source familiar with the matter, however, said there are a number of other options on the table for further assistance to Ukraine, including a much larger package of aid that would be approved in the event of further incursion by Russia.
> 
> Earlier this week, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters President Joe Biden told Russian President Vladimir Putin that if Russia launched an attack the U.S. would impose tough sanctions on Moscow and would send more military aid to Ukraine ...


----------



## Altair (13 Dec 2021)

The Bread Guy said:


> If this is true:  "Nothing for ya right now, but once you fix bayonets, we should have something to help you out."


mind numbingly dumb.


----------



## The Bread Guy (13 Dec 2021)

Altair said:


> mind numbingly dumb.


If entirely true, yup.


----------



## suffolkowner (13 Dec 2021)

Should be providing as many anti-air and anti-tank missiles and systems as Ukraine wants. And probably 100 F16-V block 70's


----------



## KevinB (13 Dec 2021)

Two different takes on what should be done.








						How might allies respond if Russia invades Ukraine?
					

NATO needs to plan beyond efforts to deter another Russian invasion of Ukraine and recognize that its actual response may differ depending on the extent of Russian military operations.




					www.defensenews.com
				












						How to avoid disaster in Ukraine
					

Definitively stating that Ukraine will not be offered NATO membership not only enhances U.S. security by reducing the likelihood of a U.S.-Russia war — it also addresses the root cause of the war in Ukraine.




					www.defensenews.com


----------



## MilEME09 (13 Dec 2021)

Russia threatens to deploy nukes in Europe
					

Russia said on Monday that it may deploy nuclear missiles in Europe because it claims NATO is doing the same. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told




					americanmilitarynews.com
				




Well that just escalated


----------



## Good2Golf (13 Dec 2021)

MilEME09 said:


> Russia threatens to deploy nukes in Europe
> 
> 
> Russia said on Monday that it may deploy nuclear missiles in Europe because it claims NATO is doing the same. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told
> ...



You mean relative from Russia saying week ago it was putting the majority of its SSBN fleet to sea?



> The U.S. and NATO have increased naval activity and aerial patrols in the region, which Russia has claimed is a “provocation” and separately threatened “dangerous consequences” for continuing that action.



What if people just ignored the Russian propaganda…


----------



## Weinie (13 Dec 2021)

Good2Golf said:


> You mean relative from Russia saying week ago it was putting the majority of its SSBN fleet to sea?
> 
> 
> 
> What if people just ignored the Russian propaganda…


Maskirovka.


----------



## MilEME09 (14 Dec 2021)

Good2Golf said:


> What if people just ignored the Russian propaganda…


Too late for that, they already won that battle, how? Evidence points to the vast majority of anti covid vaccine mantra is being coming out of Russia and China. The intended goal has likely been to destabilize western society, and it has also created a large sector of the population that doesn't trust the government. So in us vs them do you think they people who already dint trust us will believe us on Russia?


----------



## Czech_pivo (14 Dec 2021)

MilEME09 said:


> Russia threatens to deploy nukes in Europe
> 
> 
> Russia said on Monday that it may deploy nuclear missiles in Europe because it claims NATO is doing the same. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told
> ...


A vaguely written article with no definition of what is constituted as being 'Europe'.  Any INF west of the Urals would be within the geographic region of Europe.


----------



## MilEME09 (14 Dec 2021)

Czech_pivo said:


> A vaguely written article with no definition of what is constituted as being 'Europe'.  Any INF west of the Urals would be within the geographic region of Europe.











						Russia says it may be forced to deploy INF in Europe
					

Official says intermediate-range nuclear missiles could be deployed if NATO refused to engage with Moscow.




					www.google.com
				




Al Jazeera ain't much better for detail, though I would guess given the range of INF,  we are talking a stones throw of Poland.


----------



## QV (14 Dec 2021)

MilEME09 said:


> Too late for that, they already won that battle, how? Evidence points to the vast majority of anti covid vaccine mantra is being coming out of Russia and China. The intended goal has likely been to destabilize western society, and it has also created a large sector of the population that doesn't trust the government. So in us vs them do you think they people who already dint trust us will believe us on Russia?


Curious, did that come from the same people who said Trump colluded with the Russians or Rittenhouse went on a racist shooting spree.. or, or, or...?

In the last 5 years our own governments, institutions, and media have done more damage to themselves through crap messaging, crap policies, and antics worthy of distrust.


----------



## Eye In The Sky (14 Dec 2021)

MilEME09 said:


> ...Russia and China. The intended goal has likely been to destabilize western society...



I thought that was the goal of the PPC and Greta Thunberg?  Hmmm...learn something every day.


----------



## The Bread Guy (21 Jan 2022)

Specifically on OP Unifier ...


> Ottawa is poised to extend a military training mission in Ukraine for another six months and is mulling whether to expand the number of soldier-trainers deployed and provide Kyiv with defensive weapons and gear, two government sources say.
> 
> Measures under consideration by the Liberal cabinet include small arms as well as night goggles, helmets, armoured vests and military radios for Ukraine’s armed forces. Also on the table is providing intelligence and cybersecurity advice, likely through Canada’s signal intelligence agency known as the Communications Security Establishment.
> 
> And Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Wednesday that Ottawa is also drawing up a list of economic sanctions that would be imposed on Moscow if Russia launches a military offensive against Ukraine ...


This version from UKR media ...


> he Canadian military training mission UNIFIER, operating in Ukraine, will be extended for another six months.
> 
> That’s according to the Globe and Mail, citing its own sources in the Canadian government, Ukrinform reports.
> 
> Besides prolonging the mandate of the military training mission, the government is now considering increasing the number of instructors and sending defense weapons and equipment to Kyiv, the report said ...


----------



## daftandbarmy (21 Jan 2022)

The Bread Guy said:


> Specifically on OP Unifier ...
> 
> This version from UKR media ...



Based on the relative sizes and readiness levels of our armies, I'd expect Canada to ask _them _for some help:



Due to ongoing hostilities with Russia, Ukraine increased the size of its armed forces to 204,000 soldiers (+46,000 civil servants) in 2014, not counting additional military forces such as the border guards (53,000), the newly formed National Guard of Ukraine (60,000) or the security service.[12] The size of Ukraine's armed forces, which maintains a 255,000 man force, is the third-largest in Europe after the Russian and French Armed Forces.[13] It was reported that Ukraine's military swelled to 280,000 personnel. This was largely achieved by the repeated waves of mobilization bringing in new recruits while older soldiers had not yet been demobilized, the state budget for 2015 ultimately called for a force of 230,000. Hryhoriy Pedchenko reported that 51% of Ukraine's enlisted personnel were contracted soldiers.[14][15]









						Armed Forces of Ukraine - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## Czech_pivo (21 Jan 2022)

The Bread Guy said:


> Specifically on OP Unifier ...
> 
> This version from UKR media ...


This is great!  We're sending them the Rangers' old Enfield's!  Or, maybe we can collect all the Nagant's that we've bought off them over the last decade + and send them all back.
If we send them all the old Brownings then we'll have to replace them all and they can do a single source contract.


----------



## McG (22 Jan 2022)

daftandbarmy said:


> National Guard of Ukraine


Contrary to the linked Wikipedia article, the NGU is not a reserve force nor even part of the armed forces. It is the national gendarmerie under the MoI … but it does have mechanized battlegroups and its own SOF.


----------



## daftandbarmy (22 Jan 2022)

McG said:


> Contrary to the linked Wikipedia article, the NGU is not a reserve force nor even part of the armed forces. It is the national gendarmerie under the MoI … but it does have mechanized battlegroups and its own SOF.



Just sayin'


----------



## dimsum (22 Jan 2022)

Czech_pivo said:


> This is great!  We're sending them the Rangers' old Enfield's!  Or, maybe we can collect all the Nagant's that we've bought off them over the last decade + and send them all back.
> If we send them all the old Brownings then we'll have to replace them all and they can do a single source contract.








I'd be more interested to hear (although we never will) about CSE's int and cybersecurity advice.  Anyone can send guns.


----------



## MilEME09 (22 Jan 2022)

Canadian-led battlegroup in Latvia at 'high readiness' amid NATO-Russia tensions
					

The Canadian commander of a multinational battlegroup in Latvia says he is working to ensure his troops have enough supplies and can talk to each other, as mounting tensions between the NATO military alliance and Russia feed fears of a new war in Europe.



					www.ctvnews.ca
				




Prep for battle as some would say.


----------



## Rifleman62 (22 Jan 2022)

> Measures under consideration by the Liberal cabinet include small arms as well as night goggles, helmets, armoured vests and military radios for Ukraine’s armed forces. Also on the table is providing intelligence and cybersecurity advice, likely through Canada’s signal intelligence agency known as the Communications Security Establishment.



Sounds like withdrawing all the equipment from the Regular Force. Now they will know what is like in the Molitia.


----------



## dimsum (22 Jan 2022)

Rifleman62 said:


> Sounds like withdrawing all the equipment from the Regular Force. Now they will know what is like in the Molitia.


Can't complain about old equipment if you don't have any equipment


----------



## Jarnhamar (22 Jan 2022)

MilEME09 said:


> Canadian-led battlegroup in Latvia at 'high readiness' amid NATO-Russia tensions
> 
> 
> The Canadian commander of a multinational battlegroup in Latvia says he is working to ensure his troops have enough supplies and can talk to each other, as mounting tensions between the NATO military alliance and Russia feed fears of a new war in Europe.
> ...





> Canadian-led *battlegroup in Latvia at 'high readiness' *amid NATO-Russia tensions





> The Canadian commander of a multinational battlegroup in Latvia says he is* working to ensure his troops have enough supplies and can talk to each other*



I wouldn't consider working secure supplies and communications weeks or days before a tentative H-Hour as being at "high readiness".


----------



## MilEME09 (22 Jan 2022)

Jarnhamar said:


> I wouldn't consider working secure supplies and communications weeks or days before a tentative H-Hour as being at "high readiness".


Depends, if you know an attack is coming, you will stock up as much as possible in anticipation that your supply lines may be cut.


----------



## Retired AF Guy (22 Jan 2022)

MilEME09 said:


> Russia threatens to deploy nukes in Europe
> 
> 
> Russia said on Monday that it may deploy nuclear missiles in Europe because it claims NATO is doing the same. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told
> ...


Not really. Since late 2014 the Russians have deployed the nuclear capable Iskander SRBM (SS-26 Stone) in Kalingrad and there have been reports of units being deployed in Crimea.


----------



## The Bread Guy (22 Jan 2022)

Good2Golf said:


> You mean relative from Russia's Communist Party media saying week ago it was putting the majority of its SSBN fleet to sea?


If you mean this, FTFY 😉 If you mean another ref, I stand corrected ...


Good2Golf said:


> What if people just ignored the Russian propaganda…


We'd have half the laughs and far less tea-leaf reading on these threads


----------



## Jarnhamar (22 Jan 2022)

MilEME09 said:


> Depends, if you know an attack is coming, you will stock up as much as possible in anticipation that your supply lines may be cut.


Maybe, I guess. 

Clever general could also be pulling a Schwarzkopf.


----------



## FJAG (22 Jan 2022)

dimsum said:


> Can't complain about old equipment if you don't have any equipment


Yup. How's that old Advancing with Purpose thing working out for us?


----------



## MilEME09 (22 Jan 2022)

FJAG said:


> Yup. How's that old Advancing with Purpose thing working out for us?


Did we ever state what the purpose was?


----------



## FJAG (22 Jan 2022)

MilEME09 said:


> Did we ever state what the purpose was?


Sure they did. AwP 4th Ed states:


> The purpose of The Canadian Army Modernization Strategy is to ensure the Army is positioned to address the numerous challenges in our turbulent security environment. It builds on the strategic guidance provided in Advancing with Purpose:  The Army Strategy 3rd Edition, placing a pronounced emphasis on the multi-horizon modernization effort that we must undertake. Moreover, it is fully nested under our defence policy, Strong, Secure, Engaged (SSE). Fundamentally, this strategy serves as a critical statement of philosophy and principle, serving to achieve alignment across all elements of the Canadian Army by defining a common vision and end-state, and in so doing it better enables the Canadian Army to fulfill its role as a central component of our joint force. Concurrently, it will help achieve similar alignment with our allies.


There you go.

😉


----------



## Good2Golf (22 Jan 2022)

> The purpose of The Canadian Army Modernization Strategy is to ensure the Army is positioned to address the numerous challenges in our turbulent security environment. It builds on the strategic guidance provided in Advancing with Purpose: The Army Strategy 3rd Edition, placing a pronounced emphasis on the multi-horizon modernization effort that we must undertake. Moreover, it is fully nested under our defence policy, Strong, Secure, Engaged (SSE). Fundamentally, this strategy serves as a critical statement of philosophy and principle, serving to achieve alignment across all elements of the Canadian Army by defining a common vision and end-state, and in so doing it better enables the Canadian Army to fulfill its role as a central component of our joint force. Concurrently, it will help achieve similar alignment with our allies.


Yikes!


----------



## GK .Dundas (23 Jan 2022)

FJAG said:


> Sure they did. AwP 4th Ed states:
> 
> There you go.


is it possible to get an English translation of that?


----------



## The Bread Guy (23 Jan 2022)

GK .Dundas said:


> is it possible to get an English translation of that?


Not from government writers, it appears ...


----------



## dimsum (23 Jan 2022)

GK .Dundas said:


> is it possible to get an English translation of that?


I mean, it's _technically_ English...


----------



## MilEME09 (23 Jan 2022)

dimsum said:


> I mean, it's _technically_ English...


So is the manufacturer manual for the c16, but it reads like it was Google translated from German to French, to English


----------



## The Bread Guy (23 Jan 2022)

> The purpose of The Canadian Army Modernization Strategy is to ensure the Army is positioned to address the numerous challenges in our turbulent security environment. It builds on the strategic guidance provided in Advancing with Purpose: The Army Strategy 3rd Edition, placing a pronounced emphasis on the multi-horizon modernization effort that we must undertake. Moreover, it is fully nested under our defence policy, Strong, Secure, Engaged (SSE). Fundamentally, this strategy serves as a critical statement of philosophy and principle, serving to achieve alignment across all elements of the Canadian Army by defining a common vision and end-state, and in so doing it better enables the Canadian Army to fulfill its role as a central component of our joint force. Concurrently, it will help achieve similar alignment with our allies.


Dick & Jane version, at no cost to the Info-machine (and worth every penny)  


> Canada's army modernization plan will make sure the army's good to go in shitty times like ours.  It does stuff we already started with other plans, and is part of bigger plans already in place.  The plan says why we want to do things, making sure everyone sings from the same song sheet on why we should do things in a way where Big Army takes centre stage.  This'll help us do stuff for the same reasons as other countries' armies.


----------



## lenaitch (23 Jan 2022)

I used to write stuff like that when I was working in the government.  It's a (low) art.  You need to satisfy the needs of the bureaucratic and political classes to say both something and nothing at the same time.  Inserting as many currently popular buzzwords gets you added points.


----------



## MilEME09 (23 Jan 2022)

lenaitch said:


> I used to write stuff like that when I was working in the government.  It's a (low) art.  You need to satisfy the needs of the bureaucratic and political classes to say both something and nothing at the same time.  Inserting as many currently popular buzzwords gets you added points.


And this you really don't make a statement at all


----------



## The Bread Guy (23 Jan 2022)

lenaitch said:


> I used to write stuff like that when I was working in the government.  It's a (low) art.  You need to satisfy the needs of the bureaucratic and political classes to say both something and nothing at the same time.  Inserting as many currently popular buzzwords gets you added points.


I still use this tag line on my emails & nobody's called me on it yet:  *“The risk of insult is the price of clarity.” *


----------



## Colin Parkinson (23 Jan 2022)

Meanwhile back in the Fatherland, German Naval Chief resigns for saying things he should not have.






						CityNews
					






					vancouver.citynews.ca


----------



## Eye In The Sky (25 Jan 2022)

GK .Dundas said:


> is it possible to get an English translation of that?


 
Sure.


----------



## The Bread Guy (30 Jan 2022)

From the Globe & Mail


> Defence Minister Anita Anand says all Canadian troops stationed in Ukraine have been moved west of the country’s Dnieper River as worries about a possible Russian invasion continue to grow.
> 
> (...)
> 
> ...


----------



## daftandbarmy (30 Jan 2022)

The Bread Guy said:


> From the Globe & Mail



No doubt this is one of the main reasons why:


U.S. Says Russia Sent Saboteurs Into Ukraine to Create Pretext for Invasion​The Biden administration said the operatives were trained in urban warfare and explosives and could try to stage an incident.

WASHINGTON — The White House accused Moscow on Friday of sending saboteurs into eastern Ukraine to stage an incident that could provide President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia with a pretext for ordering an invasion of the country.

The administration did not release details of the evidence it had collected, but Jen Psaki, the White House press secretary, said the operatives were trained in urban warfare and explosives.

“Russia is laying the groundwork to have the option of fabricating a pretext for invasion,” Ms. Psaki said, “including through sabotage activities and information operations, by accusing Ukraine of preparing an imminent attack against Russian forces in eastern Ukraine.”

She said the Russian military planned to begin these activities several weeks before a military invasion, which could begin between mid-January and mid-February. She said Moscow was using the same playbook as it did in 2014, when Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula, a part of Ukraine.









						U.S. Says Russia Sent Saboteurs Into Ukraine to Create Pretext for Invasion
					

The Biden administration said the operatives were trained in urban warfare and explosives and could try to stage an incident.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## The Bread Guy (31 Jan 2022)

daftandbarmy said:


> No doubt this is one of the main reasons why:
> 
> 
> U.S. Says Russia Sent Saboteurs Into Ukraine to Create Pretext for Invasion ...​


Funny that - the other side says the same thing about Ukraine/the West  😉


----------



## KevinB (31 Jan 2022)

The Bread Guy said:


> Funny that - the other side says the same thing about Ukraine/the West  😉


Our guys are making the invasion more awkward though


----------



## MilEME09 (4 Feb 2022)

Tommy Conway: When soldiers show a dangerous contempt for reality
					

Even if we wanted to be useful in Ukraine, we don't have the capacity.




					theline.substack.com
				












						Canada weighs bigger commitment for NATO’s eastern flank, including Baltics
					

Whether to bolster and extend Canada’s mission to Latvia is latest question to arise from Defence Minister Anand’s Eastern European tour




					www.theglobeandmail.com
				




Interesting couple of pieces


----------



## Maxman1 (4 Feb 2022)

Retired AF Guy said:


> Not really. Since late 2014 the Russians have deployed the nuclear capable Iskander SRBM (SS-26 Stone) in Kalingrad and there have been reports of units being deployed in Crimea.



Maybe it'll be damp when they try to use them.


----------



## MilEME09 (4 Feb 2022)

Here's the million dollar question, with 60 more personal for the training mission, how is the training mission going to change? Teach new capabilities? Or just expand how many we can teach


----------



## Blackadder1916 (4 Feb 2022)

MilEME09 said:


> Here's the million dollar question, with 60 more personal for the training mission, how is the training mission going to change? Teach new capabilities? Or just expand how many we can teach



Add another HQ level to report back to Ottawa?


----------



## Fabius (5 Feb 2022)

Likely just reinforce the courses we are all ready supporting and provide ability to provide oversight for more of the serials. 
Question is where are we finding 60 MCpl to Capt types? Outside of the PMs announcement is this happening or is it like the UN 200pers QRF ?


----------



## MilEME09 (5 Feb 2022)

Fabius said:


> Likely just reinforce the courses we are all ready supporting and provide ability to provide oversight for more of the serials.
> Question is where are we finding 60 MCpl to Capt types? Outside of the PMs announcement is this happening or is it like the UN 200pers QRF ?


If it's happening they are likely analyzing right now where those 60 bodies are coming from and where they are needed. 

Given the state of the CAF, I an making an educated guess 25% or more of those 60 new bodies will need to be reservists


----------



## CBH99 (6 Feb 2022)

MilEME09 said:


> If it's happening they are likely analyzing right now where those 60 bodies are coming from and where they are needed.
> 
> Given the state of the CAF, I an making an educated guess 25% or more of those 60 new bodies will need to be reservists


I know I’m not saying anything new, and this applies just as much to the Force 2025 thread… but if the Army is struggling to find a whopping 60 bodies to deploy & reinforce an instructor cadre… we have serious f**king problems.  

Out of approx 30,000 troops + the reserve force… 60 bodies is literally nothing.  (I’ve been out since 2011, and I know the numbers have plummeted since then, so I may be off.)


If we are so bloated that double digit numbers is too steep to deploy, why do we even have discussions about reinforcing our troops in Latvia?  

🤦🏼‍♂️ Rant off…


----------



## Fabius (6 Feb 2022)

Not hard to find but hard to decide which ones to send when you have 10 equal priorities and you insist on:

Not impacting collective training
Not increasing your length of tours and treating RIPs as sacrosanct
Not using reserves to completely C2 and staff missions or IRUs
Not deploying units but bespoke TFs
Using your HR forces to fill institutional taskings and having them not really be HR

Simple and effective option is too hold the deployed forces in place for 9 months vs 6 and accelerate the deployment of the forces that were scheduled to replace them by approx 3 months. 
Voila, double the forces deployed and you have bought some decision space.


----------



## MilEME09 (6 Feb 2022)

Fabius said:


> Not hard to find but hard to decide which ones to send when you have 10 equal priorities and you insist on:
> 
> Not impacting collective training
> Not increasing your length of tours and treating RIPs as sacrosanct
> ...


Don't forgot all the ceremonial tasks, and unit sports teams they don't want to effect either. You don't wanna cancel those bonspiels after all?


----------



## Good2Golf (7 Feb 2022)

MilEME09 said:


> Don't forgot all the ceremonial tasks, and unit sports teams they don't want to effect either. You don't wanna cancel those bonspiels after all?


…or the hockey league…


----------



## Fabius (13 Feb 2022)

Pentagon has announced the withdrawal of 160 JMTGU personnel. 

DND has also confirmed the withdrawal of Op UNIFIER to Poland. 

Op ORBITAL, the UK forces have also all withdrawn.


----------



## McG (13 Feb 2022)

Canada pulls some of its task force personnel from Ukraine
					

The Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) is temporarily relocating some of force personnel based in Ukraine to a separate location in Europe, according to Canada’s Department of National Defence.




					www.ctvnews.ca
				



Reiterating the fact that Op UNIFIER was never a deterrence mission.


----------



## The Bread Guy (13 Feb 2022)

McG said:


> Canada pulls some of its task force personnel from Ukraine
> 
> 
> The Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) is temporarily relocating some of force personnel based in Ukraine to a separate location in Europe, according to Canada’s Department of National Defence.
> ...


Info-machine's version ...


> As a result of the complex operational environment linked to Russia’s unwarranted aggression against Ukraine, the Canadian Armed Forces is in the process of temporarily relocating components of Joint Task Force – Ukraine (JTF-U) to elsewhere in Europe.
> 
> The temporary repositioning of JTF-U personnel does not signal the end of the mission, but rather allows us to refocus our efforts while ensuring the safety and security of CAF members.
> 
> ...


----------



## The Bread Guy (14 Feb 2022)

Really, now???? (archive link to separatist rebel media article)


> Canadian instructors will train future Ukrainian air defense units that are going to be equipped with Stinger man-portable air-defense system, LPR People’s Militia official spokesperson Ivan Filiponenko said.
> 
> "Ukrainian command is urgently forming air-defense units on the basis of the 1129th air defense regiment in Belaya Tserkov, the units will receive Stinger man-portable air-defense systems. Canadian instructors will carry out the training," he said.
> 
> Earlier Canada said that it's going to relocate its military instructors involved in the Unifier training mission from Ukraine to other European countries due to a "rapidly evolving and complex operational environment" ...


Article text also attached if link doesn't work.


----------



## KevinB (14 Feb 2022)

McG said:


> Canada pulls some of its task force personnel from Ukraine
> 
> 
> The Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) is temporarily relocating some of force personnel based in Ukraine to a separate location in Europe, according to Canada’s Department of National Defence.
> ...


I found it interesting that no public acknowledgment of any movement out of the Ukraine by  SOF personnel from any NATO country involved in training has been made.


----------



## The Bread Guy (14 Feb 2022)

KevinB said:


> I found it interesting that no public acknowledgment of any movement out of the Ukraine by  SOF personnel from any NATO country involved in training has been made.


Well, has anybody said ALL of their troops have been moved out?  And of those who have, how many people are keeping track of public word of smaller bits of soldiers going in to "co-ordinate in case of bad scoobies"?


----------



## MilEME09 (18 Feb 2022)

Canada condemns Ukraine kindergarten shelling, Russian embassy rejects comments
					

Canada's foreign minister has accused Russia of trying to escalate the crisis with the West by shelling a kindergarten in eastern Ukraine.



					www.ctvnews.ca
				




Reading between the lines, MND admits the CAF can not take on any additional deployments. Which all but admits the sad state we are in.


----------



## FJAG (18 Feb 2022)

MilEME09 said:


> Canada condemns Ukraine kindergarten shelling, Russian embassy rejects comments
> 
> 
> Canada's foreign minister has accused Russia of trying to escalate the crisis with the West by shelling a kindergarten in eastern Ukraine.
> ...


I think your analysis of what is being said between the lines is quite accurate. We are once again faced by the fact that over 100,000 military members and civilians are stressed deploying 2,000 people notwithstanding SSE calls for up to 4,000 on sustained operations and up to an additional 2,500 on time-limited ones. We have both a structural and leadership problem that desperately need addressing.

🍻


----------



## The Bread Guy (18 Feb 2022)

MilEME09 said:


> Canada condemns Ukraine kindergarten shelling, Russian embassy rejects comments
> 
> 
> Canada's foreign minister has accused Russia of trying to escalate the crisis with the West by shelling a kindergarten in eastern Ukraine.
> ...


True, even though yesterday there was still alleged talk of maybe/perhaps sending Canadian troops to eastern Europe - maybe they got the answer to their internal ask?


----------



## Czech_pivo (18 Feb 2022)

The Bread Guy said:


> True, even though yesterday there was still alleged talk of maybe/perhaps sending Canadian troops to eastern Europe - maybe they got the answer to their internal ask?


Maybe we can gather up say 500 CDN Rangers and send them over?  They've already got excellent cold weather gear and recently were issued new rifles...


----------



## KevinB (18 Feb 2022)

The Bread Guy said:


> True, even though yesterday there was still alleged talk of maybe/perhaps sending Canadian troops to eastern Europe - maybe they got the answer to their internal ask?


I suspect Canada will end up either sending another BattleGroup - or beefing up the Latvian presence - the US just picked 4 Div over to Europe, and the Brit's 2, so I don't think the cupboard is bare argument will fly well - considering the fact Canada has committed to being able to field a Heavy Div to Europe for NATO (NATO might actually ask some awkward questions if the CAF didn't do anything).

I don't think they will accept as excuse saying that the entire CAF is occupied with the EA...


----------



## The Bread Guy (18 Feb 2022)

KevinB said:


> I suspect Canada will end up either sending another BattleGroup - or beefing up the Latvian presence ...


One hopes the cupboard isn't so bare that some of this can happen - but I also keep my fingers sadly crossed.


----------



## daftandbarmy (18 Feb 2022)

KevinB said:


> I suspect Canada will end up either sending another BattleGroup - or beefing up the Latvian presence - the US just picked 4 Div over to Europe, and the Brit's 2, so I don't think the cupboard is bare argument will fly well - considering the fact Canada has committed to being able to field a Heavy Div to Europe for NATO (NATO might actually ask some awkward questions if the CAF didn't do anything).
> 
> *I don't think they will accept as excuse saying that the entire CAF is occupied with the EA...*



That's probably why Trudeau pulled the trigger on the EA: to avoid having to send troops to Europe.


----------



## KevinB (18 Feb 2022)

daftandbarmy said:


> That's probably why Trudeau pulled the trigger on the EA: to avoid having to send troops to Europe.


Honestly I have been mulling that over - while I don't credit JT himself with a lot of intelligence, I think his team is pretty cunning and ruthless.


----------



## daftandbarmy (18 Feb 2022)

KevinB said:


> Honestly I have been mulling that over - while I don't credit JT himself with a lot of intelligence, I think his team is pretty cunning and ruthless.



They're the same crew that said 'we'll keep your seat warm in Afghanistan' while they waved goodbye as the US went into Iraq.


----------



## McG (18 Feb 2022)

KevinB said:


> ... considering the fact Canada has committed to being able to field a Heavy Div to Europe for NATO ....


Why do you think that Canada has committed to sending a Division?  I haven't seen anything to suggest we've committed to even a brigade.


----------



## KevinB (18 Feb 2022)

McG said:


> Why do you think that Canada has committed to sending a Division?  I haven't seen anything to suggest we've committed to even a brigade.


I meant Bde, my bad -- still having my coffee.

NATO definitely believes the CA has committed to a Bde, I'll leave it at that.


----------



## rnkelly (18 Feb 2022)

FJAG said:


> I think your analysis of what is being said between the lines is quite accurate. We are once again faced by the fact that over 100,000 military members and civilians are stressed deploying 2,000 people notwithstanding SSE calls for up to 4,000 on sustained operations and up to an additional 2,500 on time-limited ones. We have both a structural and leadership problem that desperately need addressing.
> 
> 🍻


These numbers are incredible.

I don’t know if SSE’s numbers are realistic or not but it’s crazy to me how much difficulty the CAF has with fulfilling their mandate of deploying overseas. I often think we’re too risk averse, we don’t need everyone deploying to be all singing and all dancing. We don’t have enough depth to be picky, sure mistakes will happen but the alternative is worse. It‘s not the time to be reducing our engagement abroad.


----------



## MilEME09 (18 Feb 2022)

rnkelly said:


> These numbers are incredible.
> 
> I don’t know if SSE’s numbers are realistic or not but it’s crazy to me how much difficulty the CAF has with fulfilling their mandate of deploying overseas. I often think we’re too risk averse, we don’t need everyone deploying to be all singing and all dancing. We don’t have enough depth to be picky, sure mistakes will happen but the alternative is worse. It‘s not the time to be reducing our engagement abroad.


Increase deployment length to 9 months, all brigade and below level HQs must deploy. Increase reserve augmentation, allow members not fully qualified in trade to deploy in trade as OJT(but not solo), especially techs who can get valuable real world training deploying to Latvia.


----------



## Czech_pivo (18 Feb 2022)

MilEME09 said:


> Increase deployment length to 9 months, all brigade and below level HQs must deploy. Increase reserve augmentation, allow members not fully qualified in trade to deploy in trade as OJT(but not solo), especially techs who can get valuable real world training deploying to Latvia.


Question, who else besides us only deploys troops on 6 month rotations?  The US 1yr rotations, correct? What about the Brits, the Poles, Germans, etc?


----------



## KevinB (18 Feb 2022)

Czech_pivo said:


> Question, who else besides us only deploys troops on 6 month rotations?  The US 1yr rotations, correct? What about the Brits, the Poles, Germans, etc?


No set standard down here - generally 9-12 months, but in Iraq at the peak 18months + did occur.


----------



## dangerboy (18 Feb 2022)

When I was in Bosnia, the British soldiers I talked to said they were there for around 6 months. Don't know if that is a standard length for them and as that was about 20 years ago if it is still like that.


----------



## KevinB (18 Feb 2022)

dangerboy said:


> When I was in Bosnia, the British soldiers I talked to said they were there for around 6 months. Don't know if that is a standard length for them and as that was about 20 years ago if it is still like that.


The did 6 month rotos in Cyprus (which was 30 years ago) and Afghanistan as well


----------



## Humphrey Bogart (18 Feb 2022)

The French do 4 month deployments.  They have a different way of looking at readiness than we do and have a lot more Presence Forces already pre-positioned that are rotated frequently.

They also don't really do the sort of large scale exercises we do and almost all large scale exercising of HQs, etc are accomplished with CAX as opposed to something like MAPLE RESOLVE.


----------



## Fabius (18 Feb 2022)

I don’t think the cupboard is so bare that we can’t put together at least a BG but that would mean actually deciding upon priorities, activating reserve forces to take over IRU tasks, accepting tour extensions for deployed forces etc. 

Our military senior leadership is incapable of not only making those decisions I am increasingly sure they can’t even visualize those options.


----------



## daftandbarmy (18 Feb 2022)

Fabius said:


> I don’t think the cupboard is so bare that we can’t put together at least a BG but that would mean actually deciding upon priorities, activating reserve forces to take over IRU tasks, accepting tour extensions for deployed forces etc.
> 
> Our military senior leadership is incapable of not only making those decisions I am increasingly sure they can’t even visualize those options.



But we have 9 x Inf Bns and umpteen Recce Regts


----------



## OldSolduer (18 Feb 2022)

Fabius said:


> I don’t think the cupboard is so bare that we can’t put together at least a BG but that would mean actually deciding upon priorities, activating reserve forces to take over IRU tasks, accepting tour extensions for deployed forces etc.
> 
> Our military senior leadership is incapable of not only making those decisions I am increasingly sure they can’t even visualize those options.


I think a good many are capable but its the bean counters and the risk averse that seem to hold sway.


----------



## KevinB (18 Feb 2022)

Humphrey Bogart said:


> The French do 4 month deployments.  They have a different way of looking at readiness than we do and have a lot more Presence Forces already pre-positioned that are rotated frequently.


Most SOF rotations are 4 months - but the Op Tempo was pretty high - for many it was 1 on 1 off, not 1 on 2 off.


----------



## MilEME09 (18 Feb 2022)

Another radical suggestion, get the changes made to the NDA and other legislation to call up reserve units to active status for a fixed period.


----------



## FJAG (18 Feb 2022)

MilEME09 said:


> Another radical suggestion, get the changes made to the NDA and other legislation to call up reserve units to active status for a fixed period.


That does not need a change to the legislation. Just an order in council.



> *31* (1) The Governor in Council may place the Canadian Forces or any component, unit or other element thereof or any officer or non-commissioned member thereof on active service anywhere in or beyond Canada at any time when it appears advisable to do so
> (a) by reason of an emergency, for the defence of Canada;
> (b) in consequence of any action undertaken by Canada under the United Nations Charter; or
> (c) in consequence of any action undertaken by Canada under the North Atlantic Treaty, the North American Aerospace Defence Command Agreement or any other similar instrument to which Canada is a party.




🍻


----------



## Maxman1 (25 Feb 2022)

Another 3,400 Canadian troops placed on standby to deploy to Europe if necessary, Defence Minister says


----------



## brihard (25 Feb 2022)

Maxman1 said:


> Another 3,400 Canadian troops placed on standby to deploy to Europe if necessary, Defence Minister says


Is there anything public on which formations/units are on deck? If it ain’t public, I’m not asking.


----------



## daftandbarmy (25 Feb 2022)

MilEME09 said:


> Another radical suggestion, get the changes made to the NDA and other legislation to call up reserve units to active status for a fixed period.



Good idea... 

... if we start now, the DAG process and workup training should be finished by next Christmas


----------



## Fabius (25 Feb 2022)

brihard said:


> Is there anything public on which formations/units are on deck? If it ain’t public, I’m not asking.


I don't think even the L1s know what exactly she was talking about yet. There are a multitude of opinions on what she meant but that's it.


----------



## MilEME09 (25 Feb 2022)

Fabius said:


> I don't think even the L1s know what exactly she was talking about yet. There are a multitude of opinions on what she meant but that's it.


Depending on how OPSEC we keep it, we might not know, NATO isn't saying how many are going with yhe rapid response force. OSINT from when it was created suggest it could be as large as 40k. Past that I hope they dint publicly say more.


----------



## ballz (25 Feb 2022)

The MND just said on Power and Politics that the 3400 is part of what we already have pledged to NATO... they've been put on a reduced NTM... so in other words, nothing to see here.


----------



## Fabius (25 Feb 2022)

Exactly it’s word salad, that’s it. 

OSINT has details on the composition of the NATO VRTF for those who want to look.


----------



## GK .Dundas (25 Feb 2022)

So in short as,I understand this.....The Government is is planning to do as little as possible while struggling to do even less ?


----------



## Kat Stevens (25 Feb 2022)

GK .Dundas said:


> So in short as,I understand this.....The Government is is planning to do as little as possible while struggling to do even less ?


You've got a hell of a future in politics, mister.


----------



## Jarnhamar (25 Feb 2022)

ballz said:


> The MND just said on Power and Politics that the 3400 is part of what we already have pledged to NATO... they've been put on a reduced NTM... so in other words, nothing to see here.


So just enough for guys to tell the ladies they might be going to war.


----------



## Eye In The Sky (26 Feb 2022)

Jarnhamar said:


> So just enough for guys to tell the ladies they might be going away close to a war zone but not likely close enough to be issued bullets n stuff…


----------



## kev994 (26 Feb 2022)

ballz said:


> The MND just said on Power and Politics that the 3400 is part of what we already have pledged to NATO... they've been put on a reduced NTM... so in other words, nothing to see here.


There goes my hopes of actually getting an F35 contract signed.


----------



## Good2Golf (26 Feb 2022)

kev994 said:


> There goes my hopes of actually getting an F35 contract signed.


That’ll come soon enough.  Rumour it was one of Biden’s points in the “here’s how things are going to go down in the coming months” call during the Ambassador Bridge blockade.


----------



## The Bread Guy (26 Feb 2022)

Kat Stevens said:


> You've got a hell of a future in politics, mister.


No way, dude - speaks WAY to clearly ....


----------



## GK .Dundas (26 Feb 2022)

The Bread Guy said:


> No way, dude - speaks WAY to clearly ....


Perhaps I should offer some sort of translation service ?


----------



## GK .Dundas (26 Feb 2022)

I am somewhat surprised that no.one seems to be asking about how this.effects Canadian defence spending and policy. It just seems to be.a.question that the media would be asking?


----------



## Good2Golf (26 Feb 2022)

GK .Dundas said:


> I am somewhat surprised that no.one seems to be asking about how this.effects Canadian defence spending and policy. It just seems to be.a.question that the media would be asking?


Politicians/Government hoping Russia stops, and then they can go back to fighting the green fight for Net-Zero 2050, and not spend anything more on Defence.


----------



## The Bread Guy (26 Feb 2022)

GK .Dundas said:


> Perhaps I should offer some sort of translation service ?


Haven't seen the Google English=>Government Speak version yet


----------



## dapaterson (26 Feb 2022)

kev994 said:


> There goes my hopes of actually getting an F35 contract signed.



Canada is still a participant in the PFSD MOU for JSF.


----------



## kev994 (26 Feb 2022)

dapaterson said:


> Canada is still a participant in the PFSD MOU for JSF.


Yeah, I meant maybe they’d stop kicking the can down the decade.


----------



## Good2Golf (26 Feb 2022)

kev994 said:


> Yeah, I meant maybe they’d stop kicking the can down the decade.


Yeah, although the Govt’s manoeuver box is getting smaller and smaller.


----------



## Old Sweat (26 Feb 2022)

I suggest we see what is in the next budget for DND, including changes in terms of numbers and when the money flows, or not. Remember, after all the noise and punditry, how things did not really change after General Baril, the CDS at the time, took the fall for PM Chretien missing the King of Jordan's funeral.


----------



## dapaterson (26 Feb 2022)

For the past 20 or so years, the DND budget has always been increased about five years down the line.  Then things change, but don't worry, in five years, the money will start flowing.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart (26 Feb 2022)

There will be no significant changes to budgets, especially with the COVID-19 free money for all bill coming due soon.


----------



## Eye In The Sky (26 Feb 2022)

Humphrey Bogart said:


> There will be no significant positive changes to budgets, especially with the COVID-19 free money for all bill coming due soon.


----------



## Czech_pivo (26 Feb 2022)

Good2Golf said:


> That’ll come soon enough.  Rumour it was one of Biden’s points in the “here’s how things are going to go down in the coming months” call during the Ambassador Bridge blockade.


I bloody well hope so.


----------



## KevinB (27 Feb 2022)

Humphrey Bogart said:


> There will be no significant changes to budgets, especially with the COVID-19 free money for all bill coming due soon.


I suspect the CAF budget will get a very significant bump in the next few months.  

I mean it’s going to cost money to reform 4 CMBG in Latvia (cough Belarus/Ukraine)


----------



## Old Sweat (27 Feb 2022)

KevinB said:


> I suspect the CAF budget will get a very significant bump in the next few months.
> 
> I mean it’s going to cost money to reform 4 CMBG in Latvia (cough Belarus/Ukraine)


I suspect there may be an announcement of one, but then, as things cool off, it will be chipped away. I've seen this sort of thing before, and also well-meaning announcements like Allard'scirca 1969 claim that 4 CMBG was going to be converted to the finest air mobile force on earth, followed by a three-year freeze on the defence budget, and nothing but cuts.


----------



## kev994 (27 Feb 2022)

KevinB said:


> I suspect the CAF budget will get a very significant bump in the next few months.
> 
> I mean it’s going to cost money to reform 4 CMBG in Latvia (cough Belarus/Ukraine)


Being able to spend it will be the key.


----------



## suffolkowner (27 Feb 2022)

Just replacing our existing capabilities like the CF-18/CP-140/CC-150 that are pretty simple only one real choice sole source would be a huge win with this government


----------



## daftandbarmy (27 Feb 2022)

Old Sweat said:


> I suspect there may be an announcement of one, but then, as things cool off, it will be chipped away. I've seen this sort of thing before, and also well-meaning announcements like Allard'scirca 1969 claim that 4 CMBG was going to be converted to the finest air mobile force on earth, followed by a three-year freeze on the defence budget, and nothing but cuts.



But there's never been a direct attack on the West like this since WW2. Even Germany is stepping up for the first time ever 









						Germany to ramp up military spending in major policy shift
					

Chancellor Scholz says country to invest more than 2 percent of GDP in defence; also announces construction of gas terminals.




					www.aljazeera.com
				





The 'me too' factor, to keep up with our NATO allies, might be too strong for our National Man Baby to resist


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## FJAG (27 Feb 2022)

Old Sweat said:


> I suspect there may be an announcement of one, but then, as things cool off, it will be chipped away. I've seen this sort of thing before, and also well-meaning announcements like Allard'scirca 1969 claim that 4 CMBG was going to be converted to the finest air mobile force on earth, followed by a three-year freeze on the defence budget, and nothing but cuts.


Those were interesting and confusing times. The way it worked out had a lot to do with this:



> However, Trudeau made it clear that he did not want an intensified Cold War as a result of the invasion, and worked to avoid a rupture with Moscow.[89] In a speech in December 1968, Trudeau asked: "Can we assume Russia wants war because it invaded Czechoslovakia?".[90]
> 
> In 1968-1969, Trudeau wanted to pull Canada out of NATO, arguing that the MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) caused by a Soviet-American nuclear exchange made it highly unlikely that the Soviet Union would ever invade West Germany, thereby making NATO into an expensive irrelevance in his view.[91]


The political leadership was certainly aiming at taking the "mech" out of 4 CMBG (which until early 1968 had been known as 4 CIBG). The Army dragged its feet until the government's feeling went away.

In a lot of ways it was a strong example of how much a political leader's control of the funding taps and domestic social agenda can get in the way of defence and security issues. On the other hand we've been able to muddle through on the cheap for a half of a century since then. I guess timing is everything.

🍻


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## GK .Dundas (27 Feb 2022)

daftandbarmy said:


> But there's never been a direct attack on the West like this since WW2. Even Germany is stepping up for the first time ever
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Don't count on it, you also have a hundred and fifty years of history,that pretty much crosses all party lines.
Mind you if you could convince him he'd be going against the current taking an incredibly brave stand spitting in the eye of history etc. You might actually get him on side. 
The funny part of this or maybe the sad part is that it would be true. 
I regret to say it but most Canadians are a spectacularly insular people.
I get the distinct impression that for most people the action in Ukraine might as well be taking on another planet..


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## MilEME09 (6 Mar 2022)

The sad thing is, in our current state, if war dragged in NATO, we would need full mobilization of the Reserves just to plug the holes in our ORBAT.


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## GR66 (6 Mar 2022)

MilEME09 said:


> The sad thing is, in our current state, if war dragged in NATO, we would need full mobilization of the Reserves just to plug the holes in our ORBAT.


Plus we've already given away all of our limited AT inventory...


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## MilEME09 (6 Mar 2022)

GR66 said:


> Plus we've already given away all of our limited AT inventory...


I doubt the  cupboard I'd bare, not completely any way, but we like the Russians also have limited domestic production capacity. If we got in a shooting war IVI would have to dramatically expand production. Even then we would need to rely on the Americans for production of things like tank rounds, etc..


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## rmc_wannabe (6 Mar 2022)

I would hazard a guess that if came down to it, we would probably start out by being absorbed into a U.S. or U.K. formation, providing people for their equipment. I do not see us fielding autonomous formations in a peer to peer battle.


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## GK .Dundas (6 Mar 2022)

rmc_wannabe said:


> I would hazard a guess that if came down to it, we would probably start out by being absorbed into a U.S. or U.K. formation, providing people for their equipment. I do not see us fielding autonomous formations in a peer to peer battle.


Ah..Cannon Fodder, lovely.


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## suffolkowner (6 Mar 2022)

GK .Dundas said:


> Ah..Cannon Fodder, lovely.


I don't know about that exactly. We can't or wont provide a fully equipped figthing unit so whats wrong with filling out are Allies. Its bound to happen in a real shooting war anyways. Are the Americans cannon fodder as well?


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## rmc_wannabe (6 Mar 2022)

GK .Dundas said:


> Ah..Cannon Fodder, lovely.


Not in the slightest. We have demonstrated interoperability in Afghan and Latvia with our allies. We are competent soldiers/sailors/aircrew. 

Our main problem is a lack of equipment. I have no problem seeing a section of Can Infantry GIBing in a Bradley or a Canadian Crew in augmenting on a UK destroyer.


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## GK .Dundas (6 Mar 2022)

suffolkowner said:


> I don't know about that exactly. We can't or wont provide a fully equipped figthing unit so whats wrong with filling out are Allies. Its bound to happen in a real shooting war anyways. Are the Americans cannon fodder as well?


We've spent most of our military history trying to avoid this situation.at brigade level and lower we can ordered to our deaths at above they have to ask and the higher the level the more polite they have to be.


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## Haggis (6 Mar 2022)

suffolkowner said:


> Just replacing our existing capabilities like the CF-18/CP-140/CC-150 that are pretty simple only one real choice sole source would be a huge win with this government


Yeah, because that worked so well with the recent pistol purchase.


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## PPCLI Guy (6 Mar 2022)

rmc_wannabe said:


> Not in the slightest. We have demonstrated interoperability in Afghan and Latvia with our allies. We are competent soldiers/sailors/aircrew.
> 
> Our main problem is a lack of equipment. I have no problem seeing a section of Can Infantry GIBing in a Bradley or a Canadian Crew in augmenting on a UK destroyer.


Of course that means completely subjugating our right to imdependent foreign policy, ROE, national interests, objectives, legal justification for the use of force etc, to say nothing of national accountability


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## daftandbarmy (6 Mar 2022)

suffolkowner said:


> I don't know about that exactly. We can't or wont provide a fully equipped figthing unit so whats wrong with filling out are Allies. Its bound to happen in a real shooting war anyways. Are the Americans cannon fodder as well?



The British were always willing to fight to the last Canadian. This realization helped drive the formation of an autonomous Canadian Army in previous conflicts


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## rmc_wannabe (6 Mar 2022)

PPCLI Guy said:


> Of course that means completely subjugating our right to imdependent foreign policy, ROE, national interests, objectives, legal justification for the use of force etc, to say nothing of national accountability


Hmmm almost seems like a great motivating factor for us to make sure we can field something tangible when the time comes...


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## daftandbarmy (6 Mar 2022)

rmc_wannabe said:


> Hmmm almost seems like a great motivating factor for us to make sure we can field something tangible when the time comes...



Or just keep doing what we’re doing and wind up with another Brigade thrown away in some future version of Hong Kong 1941/2.


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## MilEME09 (6 Mar 2022)

daftandbarmy said:


> Or just keep doing what we’re doing and wind up with another Brigade thrown away in some future version of Hong Kong 1941/2.


It's going to take a lot of UOR procurement to get use ready, even then it would be awhile before we were actually prepared for a near peer engagement


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## Haggis (6 Mar 2022)

MilEME09 said:


> It's going to take a lot of UOR procurement to get use ready, even then it would be awhile before we were actually prepared for a near peer engagement


We could be ready tomorrow... depending on who we consider a peer.


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## rmc_wannabe (6 Mar 2022)

Haggis said:


> We could be ready tomorrow... depending on who we consider a peer.


We could be ready tomorrow if we started treating defense procurement as essential and not as a political/economical stimulus package.


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## Eye In The Sky (9 Mar 2022)

rmc_wannabe said:


> Not in the slightest. We have demonstrated interoperability in Afghan and Latvia with our allies. We are competent soldiers/sailors/aircrew.
> 
> Our main problem is a lack of equipment. I have no problem seeing a section of Can Infantry GIBing in a Bradley or a Canadian Crew in augmenting on a UK destroyer.



I don't think you'd see Cdn soldiers in a Bradley commanded by US Army NCOs/Officers.

I could, as a minimum, see Coy or equivalent sub-units attached to Allied forces.  Why Coy level?  That would put them under the "command" of a Major.  Something about "Senior Officer" sounds right to the public and elected officials.

I don't see lower than that for conventional ground forces.

Comparatively, that is basically what happens when "my kind" go off to do things;  we form an Air Task Force (even if it's only a 1-airframe Det) under a Maj (minimum) as the ATC Comd.  We are under Cdn command & ROE, always, regardless of where we plug into the overall formation.

I think the same rank delineation line exists in the RCN;  IIRC, MCDV skippers are LCdrs.


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## daftandbarmy (9 Mar 2022)

Eye In The Sky said:


> I don't think you'd see Cdn soldiers in a Bradley commanded by US Army NCOs/Officers.
> 
> I could, as a minimum, see Coy or equivalent sub-units attached to Allied forces.  Why Coy level?  That would put them under the "command" of a Major.  Something about "Senior Officer" sounds right to the public and elected officials.
> 
> ...



In the Infantry I'm sure there's something about a SITREP like "The Canadian Company was wiped out, Sir" that might make the US, or other armies, a little leery about having sub-units from other countries attached in that way, during higher intensity ops anyways...


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## Eye In The Sky (9 Mar 2022)

daftandbarmy said:


> In the Infantry I'm sure there's something about a SITREP like "The Canadian Company was wiped out is still doing some mandatory DLN courses, Sir" that might make the US, or other armies, a little leery about having sub-units from other countries attached in that way, during higher intensity ops anyways...



Yes?


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## McG (10 Mar 2022)

https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/2011381827562/


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## OceanBonfire (11 Mar 2022)

> I have no doubt that allied training missions like ours helped strengthen the Ukrainian Armed Forces. As Canadian soldiers, we often joked that any time a single module in a course changed in Canada, everyone goes all up in arms. Yes, we were there as trainers. But in reality, we had more to learn from the Ukrainians because Ukraine has been rapidly professionalizing their military while simultaneously fighting a war for the past eight years.





			https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/first-person-andriy-tovstiuk-1.6377709


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## McG (13 Mar 2022)

Yavoriv has been hit.  That is where most of Op UNIFIER had been located.








						Russian forces strike Ukraine military base near Polish border, local officials say
					

Ukraine's capital Kyiv meanwhile prepared for possible encirclement by Russian forces who invaded the country on 24 February.




					www.sbs.com.au


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## daftandbarmy (13 Mar 2022)

McG said:


> Yavoriv has been hit.  That is where most of Op UNIFIER had been located.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



It's almost like they're trying to tell NATO something.

I hope that we aren't listening


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## MilEME09 (13 Mar 2022)

daftandbarmy said:


> It's almost like they're trying to tell NATO something.
> 
> I hope that we aren't listening


Would be more entertaining if a patriot battery engaged some missiles and NATO saying their trajectory was heading into Poland so we took defensive measures


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## daftandbarmy (13 Mar 2022)

MilEME09 said:


> Would be more entertaining if a patriot battery engaged some missiles and NATO saying their trajectory was heading into Poland so we took defensive measures



If you recall, as I understand the way it played out, before a formal declaration of war the US entered the war in Europe in WW2 by providing 'convoy escorts for humanitarian aid' across the Atlantic.

I'm wondering if NATO has something similar in mind.


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## brihard (13 Mar 2022)

I’ve read that that base was being used as a transit and training point for foreign volunteers. Anyone know if that’s accurate? It certainly rings plausible.


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## MilEME09 (13 Mar 2022)

brihard said:


> I’ve read that that base was being used as a transit and training point for foreign volunteers. Anyone know if that’s accurate? It certainly rings plausible.


Its the closest base to Poland so that seems plausible


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## McG (13 Mar 2022)

brihard said:


> I’ve read that that base was being used as a transit and training point for foreign volunteers. Anyone know if that’s accurate? It certainly rings plausible.


Apparently there may have been a Canadian there when it was hit.

__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503078338344194050


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## Humphrey Bogart (13 Mar 2022)

brihard said:


> I’ve read that that base was being used as a transit and training point for foreign volunteers. Anyone know if that’s accurate? It certainly rings plausible.


If reports are to be believed, this was a flow through area for foreign fighters and 200 have been killed in the attack and many more injured.


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## MilEME09 (13 Mar 2022)

Humphrey Bogart said:


> If reports are to be believed, this was a flow through area for foreign fighters and 200 have been killed in the attack and many more injured.


First reports are rarely accurate


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## Humphrey Bogart (13 Mar 2022)

MilEME09 said:


> First reports are rarely accurate


You're right, the first report said 35.

I'm sad because there were more than likely a few Canadians killed in this attack.  I'm sure we will find out soon enough.


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## MilEME09 (13 Mar 2022)

Humphrey Bogart said:


> You're right, the first report said 35.
> 
> I'm sad because there were more than likely a few Canadians killed in this attack.  I'm sure we will find out soon enough.


Ukraine has a habit of waiting 48 hours before giving more detailed and accurate information in order to prevent Russia from getting battle damage information while they can strike again. They will move all casualties l, and equipment first, then accurate report after.


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## brihard (13 Mar 2022)

MilEME09 said:


> Ukraine has a habit of waiting 48 hours before giving more detailed and accurate information in order to prevent Russia from getting battle damage information while they can strike again. They will move all casualties l, and equipment first, then accurate report after.


That’s prudent


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