# And Meanwhile In Bolivia..........



## Kirkhill (16 Dec 2007)

*Chaos in Bolivia! 4 of 9 Provinces Break From Socialist Government  * 

Gateway Pundit says:

Four provinces chose autonomy today in Bolivia.
President Evo Morales has divided the country with his new constitution. 

Santa Cruz state governor Ruben Costas waves a flag during a rally to celebrate the approval of an autonomic statute for the state in Santa Cruz, eastern Bolivia, Saturday, Dec. 15, 2007, accompanied by supporters. Under this statute the state would hold on to nearly two-thirds of the tax revenues it currently turns over to central authorities, but it would still have to undergo a popular referendum to gain legitimacy. (AP Photo/Roberto Candia)

Earlier this year I was interviewing former Bolivian Congressman Jose Brechner on the situation in Bolivia. Jose explained that all of the conditions were ripe for civil war.
It looks like he may be correct.
The Country of Bolivia is split tonight. President Evo Morales has successfully divided the nation.

** Publius Pundit is following the crisis and reported this on Morales:


Undeterred by the failure of his big brother Hugo Chavez in Venezuela to consolidate dictatorship, Bolivian madman Evo Morales is pressing ahead with his own version of a plan to do the same, placing the nation on the brink of civil war.
The governor of Santa Cruz declared autonomy today at a massive rally against the Morales goverment.
CNN reported:


Tensions were rising in Bolivia on Saturday as members of the country's four highest natural gas-producing regions declared autonomy from the central government.

Thousands waved the Santa Cruz region's green-and-white flags in the streets as council members of the Santa Cruz, Tarija, Beni and Pando districts made the public announcement.

The officials displayed a green-bound document containing a set of statutes paving the way to a permanent separation from the Bolivian government.

Council representatives vowed to legitimize the so-called autonomy statutes through a referendum that would legally separate the natural-gas rich districts from President Evo Morales' government.

The move also aims to separate the states from Bolivia's new constitution, which calls for, among other things, a heavier taxation on the four regions to help finance more social programs.

"The statutes will be ratified," said Oscar Ortiz, Santa Cruz senator. "With a public referendum, the people of our region will legitimize their will." 
Evo Morales promised to send in the military if the provinces declared autonomy.
This could get very ugly.


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## tomahawk6 (16 Dec 2007)

All the components for a civil war. It will be interesting to see who the Army sides with.


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## geo (16 Dec 2007)

It will depend on how the military units are formed & staffed.  If they represent regional levies .... sepratist cause
It they are a composite national forces then the central gov 't....

Regardless, they have the makings of something ughly!


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## Mike Baker (16 Dec 2007)

This can turn out bad. I wonder if any other countries might get involved... I guess only time will tell.


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## geo (16 Dec 2007)

All in all, Bolivia is a very small piece of realestate.  The only thing it has going for it is it's natural gas deposits..... soo Peru, Clile and Brazil all have a vested interest


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## Kirkhill (16 Dec 2007)

And the 4 separatist states are the rich lowland states on the east side that are contiguous with Peru, Chile and Brazil. 

Morales' core support come from the Indians of the Hgh Plains which can only be reached via a railway that comes up from the Pacific through Chile just south of and parallel to the Peru-Chile border.

Bolivia and Chile fought a war over access to the Pacific in 1879-1884 that lost Bolivia access to the ocean.  They are still pissed off over that.

And then there's this from Znet 2003:



> A new cycle of conflict has developed in Bolivia as worker unions, coca farmers and ordinary citizens unite to prevent the sale of the nation's gas reserves to the United States through a Chilean port.  In a country whose economic identity has been strongly shaped by U.S. pressure in the war on drugs and IMF structural adjustments, The Gas War is the most recent case where the Bolivian public has vehemently protested against foreign interests taking priority over the country's economic well being.....



There was also this from McClatchy Washington



> Violence erupts as Bolivia faces crisis over constitutional reform
> By Jack Chang | McClatchy Newspapers
> Posted on Monday, December 3, 2007 email | print tool nameclose
> tool goes here
> ...



Sucre is the capital of the 5th contiguous eastern province and the wealthiest city in the country.  It has been proposed that the capital be moved there from La Paz which is up in the mountains.

The New York Times has more


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## Edward Campbell (16 Dec 2007)

Santa Baker said:
			
		

> This can turn out bad. I wonder if any other countries might get involved... I guess only time will tell.



As _Murphy_ noted, correctly, anything that "can turn out bad" probably will - at the worst possible moment, too.

Sometimes the _best_ answer is to do nothing at all, unless our _*vital* interests_ are *threatened*. Now the US _may_ see itself as having "vital" interests in Bolivia - ditto Brazil, Chile and Peru - but the operative questions ought to be:

1. Are our vital interests threatened? and

2. Is there much (anything) we can do to make things better *for us*?

If the answer to either question is "No" then doing nothing appears, to me, to be the right answer.

I suspect that if we ask those questions re: Sudan/Darfur the answers will be "*No!!!!*" in both cases and we will have a powerful case for creative inaction.


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## Kirkhill (16 Dec 2007)

From Businessweek in May 2006 



> ...BRAZIL BETRAYED?  Although Morales isn't seizing companies' assets, he is forcing them to accede to new terms, which in some cases raise the government's take to 82%. While Petrobras is likely to reach some sort of compromise agreement, players with less significant positions may well leave the country. Morales says that mining and forestry concessions will be the next to be reexamined.
> 
> When Morales was running for office, he vowed to become Washington's "worst nightmare." (In Latin America, that title is currently held by his friend Chávez.) The former leader of Bolivia's coca leaf growers union was expected to reject U.S. aid aimed at wiping out illegal plantations of coca, the raw ingredient for cocaine. But now, Morales is turning out to be more of a problem for countries that many presumed would be natural allies: Brazil and Spain. Both are led by left-leaning governments inclined to sympathize with Bolivia's first-ever indigenous president.
> 
> ...



And now, according to the Times article, the President of Brazil is coming to Bolivia in the middle of a crisis that materially affects his economy to discuss a road to connect Brazil to the Pacific via Bolivia....


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## Reccesoldier (16 Dec 2007)

http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/629E0B90-7FC0-434A-AC2C-C958E0314E96.htm



> In November, the country's assembly approved a draft constitution that would establish a multi-ethnic state with self-governing regions for indigenous groups.
> 
> But the largest opposition party boycotted the assembly and only 153 of the assembly's 255 delegates were present at the vote.



What was it that one of the posters here said about boycotting the political process?

This one I found funny... 


> Soldiers were ready to step in to protect public *and private property*,


 (emphasis mine)

Yeah, private property...


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## Kirkhill (16 Dec 2007)

We may not have "vital" interests in Bolivia but we do have "interests" in the Americas.  If I remember the recent Foreign Policy article by John Ivison(?) correctly then one of Harper's objectives MAY be to continue to broker relationships between Latin America and the US.  Part of that, it would seem to me, would be to try and sideline Chavez and Morales and more actively engage Brazil.

Going back to my "head count" appreciation of the Iran vote Peru and Chile, along with Argentina and Paraquay (Bolivia's other neighbours) all voted WITH ABCANZUS and the EU while Brazil abstained.  Ecuador also voted with the ABCANZUS-EU group.  Bolivia abstained and Chavez opposed.

It seems to me that ALL of Morales's neighbours have ample reasons to wish to see him hobbled or removed.


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## Mike Baker (9 Jan 2008)

Crisis talks to avert Bolivian split



> LA PAZ, Bolivia (CNN) -- Bolivian government representatives will meet with breakaway governors next week in a bid to avert a political split that threatens to tear the Andean country in half.
> 
> Bolivia's president, Evo Morales, who held talks with provincial governors this week, has antagonized opponents in the gas-rich east with plans for a new constitution that would give more power to the indigenous population, who form a sizeable majority elsewhere in the country.
> 
> ...


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