# North Korea (Superthread)



## Scoobie Newbie

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20060704/korea_missile_060704/20060704?hub=TopStories

CTV.ca News Staff

North Korea has test-launched two missiles within an hour of each other -- both which have landed in the Sea of Japan about 600 km from the Japanese mainland, according to reports.

Japanese public broadcaster NHK said the first missile was launched at 3:32 a.m. local time Wednesday and crashed into the sea several minutes later.

Japanese government officials are trying to determine whether the missile was a long-range ballistic that had been readied for launch recently, or whether it was a different missile. 

It had been believed that North Korea was preparing a test launch of its Taepodong 2 missile -- believed able to reach parts of the United States.

The report comes on the same day the U.S. military announced that an Air Force facility at Cheyenne Mountain, Colorado, has been put on heightened alert, amid reports that North Korea could be set to test-fire a long-range missile.

The U.S. has long warned North Korea against firing long-range missiles.


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## Scoobie Newbie

CNN reports that neither missile had long range potential.


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## Jack O.

CNN just reported that they launched the long-range Taopedong-2 missile, however it reportedly failed in mid-air.


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## Scoobie Newbie

That makes 3.


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## Trinity

Hewlett said:
			
		

> CNN just reported that they launched the long-range Taopedong-2 missile, however it reportedly failed in mid-air.



Nice.....


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## Inspir

Ahhh, CNN. The world's intelligence source


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## tomahawk6

The failure of the second stage is good news,they dont have an ICBM capability yet. On the negative side they have plenty of Scud type missiles which would cause problems for the ROK and US forces.


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## The Bread Guy

...and maybe Japan, too?


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## Grilla

I dunno, im just a sapper  , but this could ge pretty big pretty fast for Japan at least.


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## Armymatters

Latest reports are that at *least *5 missiles were fired, up to at most 10.
http://www.cbc.ca/story/world/national/2006/07/04/korea-missile.html

This is seriously provacative in the region. North Korea has always been the wild card in the deck of international security and now things are turning serious.

Edit: CBC is reporting that 6 missiles were launched.


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## Michael OLeary

North Korea preparing to launch more missiles: reports

http://www.cbc.ca/story/world/national/2006/07/05/north-korea.html



> Last Updated Wed, 05 Jul 2006 23:26:32 EDT
> CBC News
> 
> North Korea is reportedly preparing to launch three or four more missiles including another long-range Taepodong-2, despite international condemnation for test-firing a flurry of missiles into the Sea of Japan Tuesday and Wednesday.
> 
> The missiles are said to be either short-or medium-range, and are on launch pads and ready for firing, major South Korean newspapers reported Thursday.
> 
> NBC News reported that North Korea was also preparing to launch another long-range Taepodong-2 missile but the missile is not yet on the launch pad.
> 
> North Korea has test-fired at least seven missiles in 24 hours, sparking worldwide condemnation for breaking a moratorium in place since 1999.
> 
> The long-range Taepodong-2, believed to be able to reach continental North America, fell short of its target shortly after being launched Tuesday. The latest launch came several hours after a bout of sustained activity, during which five short-range models crashed into the Sea of Japan.



See link for remainder of story.


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## Scoobie Newbie

I wonder what would happen if N. Korea miscalculated and a missle landed on Japan proper.


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## techie

China and Russia, i dont think, would be able to make good arguments to take less action then what the majority of the current sec. council wants to do. While the majority of the sec council wants to impose sanctions(13/15) where only China and Russia want to make a presedential statement. Ill post a link to the new story i read that in when i find it in my history.


http://www.abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory?id=2158359


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## chaos75

Again, along the same lines as the current Iranian situation, I don't see how any nation, including the UN can go around telling sovereign nations what kinds of technology they can develop or test, considering this technology is widely used and available in numerous other countries.  The US tests how many missile systems a year, the Russians tested several missiles this year, the US is developing new nukes to replace old ones, etc etc.  No one here myself included is a fan of DPRK and Iran, but what gives us the right to tell them what they can and cant do.  Every nation is entitled to an armed forces and a threat deterrent force, whether that be nuclear or conventional.  If they haven't realized yet that starving the North Koreans doesn't effect their actions, maybe a regime change is in order there as well (not an Iraqi kill tens of thousands in the process style one either).  The NK situation has become so cyclical its ridiculous. Let em test all the missiles they want, what they are firing and if any missiles are armed is know well in advance with plenty of time to eliminate the threat before launch.  All this is is limited brinkmanship from the Koreans, and more muscle flexing from the US to divert attention from Iraq/Afghanistan.  Let the cycle continue...


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## GAP

chaos75 said:
			
		

> Again, along the same lines as the current Iranian situation, I don't see how any nation, including the UN can go around telling sovereign nations what kinds of technology they can develop or test, considering this technology is widely used and available in numerous other countries.  The US tests how many missile systems a year, the Russians tested several missiles this year, the US is developing new nukes to replace old ones, etc etc.  No one here myself included is a fan of DPRK and Iran, but what gives us the right to tell them what they can and cant do.  Every nation is entitled to an armed forces and a threat deterrent force, whether that be nuclear or conventional.  If they haven't realized yet that starving the North Koreans doesn't effect their actions, maybe a regime change is in order there as well (not an Iraqi kill tens of thousands in the process style one either).  The NK situation has become so cyclical its ridiculous. Let em test all the missiles they want, what they are firing and if any missiles are armed is know well in advance with plenty of time to eliminate the threat before launch.  All this is is limited brinkmanship from the Koreans, and more muscle flexing from the US to divert attention from Iraq/Afghanistan.  Let the cycle continue...



A lot of what you say rings true...that given, I think this is one of those situations that is coming full circle to bite us in the *ss. 

Years ago, it was easier to ignore the DPRK than to deal with them. This is the natural progression of stuff that lies around and festers. 

Most of it is DPRK attention getting stuff, and a LOT is the US and others DIRVERTING attention, but it will come to a head, either from within, or from outside.


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## chaos75

I agree...eventually it will be time to put up and shut up.  The NK regime will not last more than a decade due to starvation, population decline, little to no economy, and the eventual death of KJ.  One of three things will happen.

1.  KJ will be near death, his people will begin to riot over lack of necessities and poor living conditions and the government will have no choice but to launch some sort of last ditch attack against the South or Japan, to avoid total collapse and chaos.

2. KJ will die and his successor (presumably son number three according to latest news), will either attempt to carry on status quo and fail see point #1, or start some type of post-Mao China type integration into the global community (although that might require giving up nukes which may be near impossible for regime to do)

3. US/UN finally decides enough is enough, threat is too great and military action is taken to eliminate nuke facilities and government leadership.  This issue is extremely delicate due to NK close ties with China, who the US is definitely not ready to deal with.

The likely scenario would be number 2, with China being the key player in bringing NK into the international fold.  Process will be slow but I think in the end, possible 10 - 20 years we may see re-unification.


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## GAP

There is a definite possibility of a military coup.  Sons getting weaker, military, although purged periodically, has high status, which leads to wanting total control.


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## Armymatters

GAP said:
			
		

> There is a definite possibility of a military coup.  Sons getting weaker, military, although purged periodically, has high status, which leads to wanting total control.



In North Korea, the military and any members of it get priority in terms of food stuffs, medicine and goods to ensure their loyalty.

Right now, my analysis:

Major tactical blunder. Before the launches, the North Koreans did some major sabre rattling about being able to 'nuke the USA into smithereens'. Now it has been shown that this capability to hit the continental USA is very iffy, with the launch failure of the only missile capable of reaching the USA. Everyone now knows that at most the North Koreans were bluffing in this game of poker.


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## Scoobie Newbie

The problem with playing poker is that when one of the players is Looney Tunes you don't know what to expect.


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## CanadaPhil

Ummmm..... Is "Taepodong" North Korean slang for "Kind of Penis"???

Looks like they have a limp noodle at best.


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## Michael Dorosh

chaos75 said:
			
		

> I agree...eventually it will be time to put up and shut up.  The NK regime will not last more than a decade due to starvation, population decline, little to no economy, and the eventual death of KJ.  One of three things will happen.
> 
> 1.  KJ will be near death, his people will begin to riot over lack of necessities and poor living conditions and the government will have no choice but to launch some sort of last ditch attack against the South or Japan, to avoid total collapse and chaos.
> 
> 2. KJ will die and his successor (presumably son number three according to latest news), will either attempt to carry on status quo and fail see point #1, or start some type of post-Mao China type integration into the global community (although that might require giving up nukes which may be near impossible for regime to do)
> 
> 3. US/UN finally decides enough is enough, threat is too great and military action is taken to eliminate nuke facilities and government leadership.  This issue is extremely delicate due to NK close ties with China, who the US is definitely not ready to deal with.
> 
> The likely scenario would be number 2, with China being the key player in bringing NK into the international fold.  Process will be slow but I think in the end, possible 10 - 20 years we may see re-unification.



Scenario 4 - the Soviet Union scenario - all the old timers die of old age and slightly younger enlightened types look to the west for rapprochement on equitable terms.

Don't forget how I nailed Game 7 of the Cup finals.


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## munky99999

Think of it like this. Say Canada all of a sudden wanted to build nuclear weapons and test them. The UN and the USA will be concerned, like China is with NK, but not freaking out. The difference is, Canada will very unlikely use them to begin with; while NK is relatively more likely to use them. The USA/UN and etc. are hoping for continued peace. By urging NK not to press the issue, they are simply saying we don’t want to go to war with you. I am pretty confident to say that they will pretty much ignore and not strike back until the NK goes way too far. By the time the NK goes too far with the “brinkmanship” even China and the UN will be backing up the suppression of the nkoreans; which I know they know they can’t go too far.

As for GWBush trying to push the subject away from Iraq; I believe that recent news of declassified information basically proving the reason for going into Iraq is a pretty good evidence for it. One might argue that these 500 WMDs were worthless and not reason enough to go into Iraq and my response is that they “just recently declassified this not so important information” just perhaps they have a huge very potent amount of WMD information that is still classified. Sure this is basically less evidence then heresay and doesn’t prove anything. But, to the open mind it definitely keeps the option of Iraq still valid.


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## Blackhorse7

North Korea States Any Pressure From The US Will Be Seen as an Act of War

From CBC

"North Korea said Wednesday that any increase in pressure from the United States against the communist country would be viewed as an act of war.

North Korea's Foreign Ministry said in a statement that North Korea would respond with "physical measures" if the U.S. applies pressure on the regime for testing a nuclear weapon on Monday."

This does not sound good at all.  Any thoughts on this?  The first thing that popped into my mind was WWIII.  If China sides with North Korea, we in the west have a *MAJOR* problem.


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## vonGarvin

This whole thing is a bit scary.  From a viewpoint from some guy on cbc last night (Can't remember his name, but he's dealt with NK quite often), they don't bluff.  I KNOW that the US would not back down from sanctions (NK is already sanctioned heavily), but if China were to up the ante, well, that's a different kettle of fish....


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## ArmyGuy99

I think this is going to turn out be one of those situations like the Cuban Missile, where the decisions made can have drastic consequences.  Especially if someone pushes a button and a makes a city or two dissapear. Even if N.K. crosses the 40th paralell conventionally, the U.S. almost completely pulled out of South Korea, it could get a little dicey.

And that could be before S.K, and Japan start their own Nuc Programs.  The world has definatley gotten a wee bit more dangerous and complicated.

Armyguy99


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## cplcaldwell

von Grognard said:
			
		

> From a viewpoint from some guy on cbc last night (Can't remember his name, but he's dealt with NK quite often)...



Patrick Brown?

Clip online at cbc.ca (this link). 

Requires Real Player.

Runs 13:22.

Excellent reporting, as usual, by Patrick Brown.


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## geo

from what I have read so far, China is realy pi$$ed at N Korea.
While they do not support any kind of military action/sanction, they are applying / or intend to apply economic sanctions

Problem with economic sanctions is you're always gonna hurt the little guy


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## FredDaHead

"This is a huge s**t sandwich and we're all going to have to take a bite."

Although Lil' Kim is quite insane, I don't think he's insane enough to try and do anything to South Korea. But I do believe if he tries anything, North Korea will become the biggest parking lot/glassfield in the history of mankind. Russia, China and the US are getting quite mad at Lil' Kim, and it's not a very smart idea to piss off the three biggest nuclear powers in the world.

As for the comparison with the Cuban missile crisis, I think there are probably already a lot of submarines (from all 3 big players... probably some other countries, too) in the area, and I'm sure the US is considering bringing one of their battlegroups a little closer--the closest is the Kitty Hawk somewhere in Japan--along with a bunch of extra subs. The problem I see is that the US military is stretched in terms of land combat, and probably couldn't fight a war in South Korea on short notice. Even Canada, Australia and other middle powers would probably not get there in time to stop Lil' Kim from taking Seoul (or destroying it) and most of the peninsula would probably be red by the time the West could mount a counter-offensive.

To quote Big Foot, "these are interesting times we live in."


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## career_radio-checker

Frederik G said:
			
		

> Even Canada, Australia and other middle powers would probably not get there in time to stop Lil' Kim from taking Seoul (or destroying it) and most of the peninsula would probably be red by the time the West could mount a counter-offensive.
> 
> To quote Big Foot, "these are interesting times we live in."



That is exactly what happened in 1950 but the allies managed to push them up to the Chinese borders. But now we are talking about nuclear weapons.  Who knows what would happen? This is the one time I am listening to the little naive voice in my head and would like to leave it at that question.


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## warrickdll

Does the US currently have the capacity to follow through if it did threaten North Korea?

North Korea must know that the US is in a bad spot:
	- The US is majorly tied down in Iraq.
	- There is increased pressure for the US to reinforce Afghanistan.
	- After years of saying that there will be no Draft the Republicans aren't likely to do a call up now with pending elections.

The North Koreans, and Iranians, must be marveling at the extent of the repercussions so far. _"Bad North Korea! No dessert for you!"_. If this wasn't a real nuke test then this can hardly be a deterrent to one in the future.


A basket case economy like North Korea can't be easily influenced by embargos. Iran has seen how impractical embargos are against oil producing nations, so it can't be too upset with the prospect economic sanctions either.


The best result at the moment (besides someone on the inside hitting the nut over the head with a club) would be for China to roll over the border and then quickly hand the mess over to South Korea. Unlikely, but it would give China enormous prestige.

The US will look extremely weak if it can't influence the situation at all.


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## career_radio-checker

Alright sorry for the double post but a word of caution:

Members of the media are amongst us and I am personally going to refrain from speculating a course of action. This site has been used in the media before and it could be quoted as a "credible" source for militaristic opinions / what the military wants to do. I see this is an extremely tense period and don't want to be part of the scare.


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## Mike Baker

I honestly think that the N Koreans are on the verge of doing something very, very stupid. And the responce to that will put the N Korean people in worse shape then they are now.


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## Rockhound

As I understand it, the DPRK made the actual decision to go nuclear 25 odd years ago - why at that time did they feel it was necessary, and what has really changed WRT the factors this original decision?  I appreciate that few in the world could actually know the real answer but their retoheric would suggest the primarary motivation is the reunification of the pennisula.  The apologists suggest it is because of Bush's pre-emptive strategy (that did not exist 25years ago).  Others suggest it is being done in order to sell them to others with a hate-on for the USA.

Could there be a hope on the part of the North Koreans that by owning nucs it take nucs off the table for the USA response options - a detente if you will, limiting all action to strictly conventional response?  Would this allow them more freedom of action with conventional force - especially now, given the demands on the USA and UK?  If the answers are in the affirmative is it likely they will be as rash as some suggest and attack the South?

If the last question is Yes - what about Iran?  This one heck of a good distraction from their activites, especially if they are further along with Nuc development than they let on (due to such a lack of intel identified in the 9-11 commission who really knows where they are?).  Would they capitalize on this?

All a bit pessimisstic, I know, but they appear to be valid questions (but then again I am not expert on such matters)

Cheers

RPC


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## Old Guy

I think North Korea is a hollow shell.  Kim's saber rattling is intended, I believe, to keep everyone off balance and to extort more aid from China and the West.  Whether he's over-stepped himself -- only time will tell.

Armies are more than mere numbers.  NK is a humanitarian disaster, getting worse by the day.  The deteriorating situation in the countryside and cities has to have an effect on the military, no matter how draconian the regime.

NK generals may be eating well, but how about the rank-and-file?  If the combat troops are getting adequate rations, what about the mechanics and other technicians needed to keep any military force in motion?  Logistically, how much combat could the NK forces sustain before they ran out of supplies?

It is probably impossible for anyone outside North Korea to imagine the extent of the horror there.  The entire country is slowly becoming a vast, open-air tomb.

Napolean is supposed to have said: "Never forget the enemy marches through the same mud."  

The mud, figuratively speaking, is becoming neck-deep on the NK side.  

In some ways, I hope I'm wrong, but I fear that I am not.

Jim


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## zipperhead_cop

I wonder if this incident is anything along the same lines as the crap Iran has been pulling?  Everybody sees the USA as overstreached, and most of Europe have distinguished themselves as self serving isolationists in the military scheme of things (Brits excepted).  There is a lot of sabre rattling going on from people who might have otherwise kept to themselves before the US was jammed up in Iraq.  Does the United States still have the same capacity to project power that it did before Iraq?  Too far out of my lane to say.  
Plus, the whole "it can't be confirmed as an actual nuke" issue is interesting.  What's to say it wasn't a big cave full of conventional explosives that were used to simulate a nuclear explosion?  If there were rumblings from NK's chums (terrorists and radical states as such) that they were not so sure if they even *had* nuclear technology, maybe he would want to put on a show in order to try to make him a big man again.  Seems to me that the nuclear threat is the only thing that has kept him from getting his arse handed to him for some time now.  I can't see how honking off China is a really great idea, though.  

Maybe KJI finally got his DVD version of Team America-World Police and blew a gasket?


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## warrickdll

A massive redeployment of US forces (without actually saying they will invade) to the area has advantages:
	- This would give the US a credible excuse to do a draw down in the number of troops they have in Iraq.
	- More pressure could be added to NATO members to step up in Afghanistan so that the US can reposition forces (especially Air) to East Asia.
	- Reserve and National Guard weariness from the Iraq campaign could be mitigated with a shift in focus to containing North Korea.

With a redeployment to the area the US would also be able to bring its Navy and Air Force into the forefront and give some of the Army a short pause. And more importantly, this would put China in _Cr*p or get off the pot_ mode. Not that that worked so well in 1950, but things have changed. 

If China were to then back North Korea and call for the US not to invade (highly likely), then the US could simply not invade in the interest of world peace, leaving China fully aligned with International Crackpots man of the year, and also with an alarmingly more militarized Japan and South Korea (plus an increased US presence in say... Taiwan).

If the US redeployed to the area and China did nothing, then China would seem weak (and on its own doorstep).


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## Brad Sallows

>The problem I see is that the US military is stretched in terms of land combat, and probably couldn't fight a war in South Korea on short notice.

The US land forces don't have to be there.  I suppose South Korea is in better shape to deal with a North Korean invasion than South Vietnam was with respect to North Vietnam in the early '70s.  If all the US does is keep sea lanes into SK open so that armaments and munitions can flow in, it will be enough.  If the US is prepared to provide naval and air support it will be more than enough.  If China wants to support NK against SK, I can't imagine why the US wouldn't immediately cease trade with China and tell them to go shop their wares in Europe.


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## paracowboy

anybody know what the rictor(sp) scale said about it actually being a nuke? Nuke blasts make a big shake. A *REAL* big shake.


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## 3rd Herd

paracowboy said:
			
		

> anybody know what the rictor(sp) scale said about it actually being a nuke? Nuke blasts make a big shake. A *REAL* big shake.



"We're still evaluating the data, and as more data comes in, we hope to develop a clearer picture," said one official familiar with intelligence reports. 
"There was a seismic event that registered about 4 on the Richter scale, but it still isn't clear if it was a nuclear test. You can get that kind of seismic reading from high explosives." 

Source:U.S. doubts Korean test was nuclear, Bill Gertz, THE WASHINGTON TIMES, October 10, 2006 

Map from Discovery Channel:


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## warrickdll

Brad Sallows said:
			
		

> ...The US land forces don't have to be there.  I suppose South Korea is in better shape to deal with a North Korean invasion than South Vietnam was with respect to North Vietnam in the early '70s.  If all the US does is keep sea lanes into SK open so that armaments and munitions can flow in, it will be enough.  If the US is prepared to provide naval and air support it will be more than enough. ...




Yes. But so far South Korea has displayed a policy of _"I don't want to die"_, which has certain amount of logic and a generally universal appeal to it. Both China and North Korea probably realize that. 

The US needs to be able to project the capacity of complete Air and Naval superiority in the area *along* with a moderate Land capacity. South Korea might not commit until that is shown.

Still, having a preemptive Chinese occupation of North Korea, to prevent a US attack, adds stability to the situation. A post-emptive )) Chinese response would be a disaster.



As to the reality; even if not a real event, the global response has been real - and so far that response has been overwhelmingly limited.


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## GAP

How much of a drawdown did the US do in SK, Okinawa, and South Pacific?


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## FredDaHead

Re: the seismic activity

I can't find the sources just yet, but I remember reading in a few of them that given some time do analyze the data, seismologists could tell whether this was nuclear or conventional--nuclear explosions have a different seismic signature, apparently.


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## AJFitzpatrick

My understanding is that the only positive confirmation of a nuclear explosion is the detection of the gaseous decay products. The USAF is flying those missions as we speak.


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## warspite

Brad Sallows said:
			
		

> If China wants to support NK against SK, I can't imagine why the US wouldn't immediately cease trade with China and tell them to go shop their wares in Europe.


Not sure if that's really an option. There is a heck of a lot of trade going on. True it is mostly China benefiting from the trade but the U.S just can't find a new source of McDonald's toys overnight and shut down trade. They would never get away with it, kinda like we couldn't get away with shutting down trade with the U.S.( if only on a lesser scale)

And just a question here but if N. Korea declared war on the States couldn't the U.S. just place a fleet offshore and tomahawk the N. Korean infrastructure into oblivion as a lesson about who N. Korea is dealing with?


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## Brad Sallows

>Yes. But so far South Korea has displayed a policy of "I don't want to die", which has certain amount of logic and a generally universal appeal to it.

Ultimately that is a SK problem, not a US problem.

If the US pushes NK, then NK is going to have to find a way to push back against the US.  They don't share a land border, so what does that leave?


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## warspite

Brad Sallows said:
			
		

> If the US pushes NK, then NK is going to have to find a way to push back against the US.  They don't share a land border, so what does that leave?


*China?* ???


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## Brad Sallows

>They would never get away with it, kinda like we couldn't get away with shutting down trade with the U.S.( if only on a lesser scale)

Never get away with it?  Why not?  Cheap housewares and other garage sale fodder are not at the top of the list of national interests.


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## warrickdll

Agreed. Similar to Iraq's Scudding of Israel.

From a Canadian perspective - we should be ensuring that the West Coast is at least as equipped as the East Coast in terms of Navy, Air Force, SCTF, etc. 

Also time for a renewed appreciation for ASW and missile defence.


_Edit: Added Missile Defence_


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## geo

My problem with all of this is that if gives some other countries all sorts of wacky ideas.

Iran must be marveling at how everyone is standing up and paying attention to NK without taking military steps against them................  now try to discourage Iran from developing it's nuclear capacity.

Ain't going to happen.


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## warspite

Brad Sallows said:
			
		

> >They would never get away with it, kinda like we couldn't get away with shutting down trade with the U.S.( if only on a lesser scale)
> 
> Never get away with it?  Why not?  Cheap housewares and other garage sale fodder are not at the top of the list of national interests.


http://stat.wto.org/CountryProfile/WSDBCountryPFView.aspx?Language=E&Country=CN,US
The U.S as of 2004 gets 13.8% of it's imports from China. That's a lot of garage sale fodder. ;D
Why in fact it's $210,521,208,000 dollars worth of garage sale fodder.


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## warrickdll

Nuke/conventional/earthquake/toilet flushing... whatever it was doesn't really matter anymore because it has now revealed that North Korea (and by extension - Iran) has nothing to fear if it creates a nuclear arsenal.

Now the US designation of Axis of Evil is nothing more than an FYI, and leaves their Iraq policy open to complete repudiation. If Iran were to conduct a test tomorrow, the only consequence would be akin to an embargo on ipods.


The best move for the US is a mass deployment into the area. They don't even have to imply that they will attack North Korea - the US could simply move their forces to Taiwan and perhaps muse loudly about recognizing Taiwan as an independent nation. Then let China make the hard choices.


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## tomahawk6

The US is presently working with the ROK's to restructure the command organization.Essentially the US is going to turn over command of ROK ground force to the ROK's.They will remain under UN/CFC command. We will maintain 1 brigade combat team in country with support units. The 7th Fleet and the Air Force provide assets that the Koreans lack.

The North Koreans can be hurt in several ways. Japan can prevent North Koreans living in Japan from sending money back home. The US can mount an interdiction operation targeting shipping leaving North Korean ports.
Their real achilles heal is China. If China stops sending fuel and food into North Korea then they will either cave or do something crazy like attack the south. We cannot fail to act because of their threats, when we do that they win.


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## JBP

I am seeing what you folks are saying about making a deployment/buildup of troops in SK, but I really don't think that would be a good move at this point because what happens every time the USA puts some boots on the ground in any significant numbers anywhere on the map? - Battle. If the US was to deploy let's say, 50,000 troops to the region ontop of whats there, I think NK would immediately attack the South and try to obliterate whatever land forces would be there, because they would see that as a troop buildup precipitating an invasion/attack. Doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that might not be a good idea. We DO have to respond, but we shouldn't instigate a retaliatory move if we can avoid it.

Just my thoughts! Only worth about 1/2 a cent sometimes. =)


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## GMan87

Damned if you do, damned if you don't

For Military Action:
- stops threat of North Korea sending a nuke towards Japan/South Korea
- stops threat of NK selling nukes to "highest bidder"
- their technology is currently not advanced enough to utilize the nukes, get them now before its too late
- send the right message to Iran, etc.
- eliminate the need for other Asian countries (as peaceful as they may be) to go nuclear
- NK is already heavily sanctioned and the sanctions mostly hurt the poor, not the people at the top
- bring some democracy to the people of NK (would likely go far better than Iraq)

Against Military Action:
- refugees pour into China and SK
- northern SK will likely take damage from NK
- West's militaries stretched too thin already.  
- Land/Sea attack must be followed by land invasion to prevent NK from taking a chunk out of their neighbours
- China will not like the fall of communism in NK
- will cost many casualties, as NK does have a large army
- will have another country we have to "rebuild"

Really, neither option works. Either you take costly military actions and fuel tensions with China or say to the rest of the world "go ahead, devleop nukes, we'll just give you a slap on the wrist" and allow NK to get their program to a point where we have to say "too late to do anything without them nuking us". I think the best option is to get into tough negotiations backed by sanctions. However, if negotiations fail, it will become a question of "military attack now" vs. "live with a nuclear NK". Wait too long and a military attack will not be an option.


----------



## tomahawk6

The good news for us is that the test was a fizzle, which exposes Kim's claims that he has nuclear weapons. If he were confident he had a working device he would have done an above ground test.


----------



## Edward Campbell

warspite said:
			
		

> *China?* ???



I think we need to keep a couple of key factors in mind:

•	This is more than just a NK vs. USA problem, it is an *Asian* problem;

•	America does not have sufficient conventional force – even without Iraq – to play a decisive role in Asia, and India is not, yet, ready to bring its _potentially *considerable*_ power to bear, in any cause – much less to help the US in East Asia;

•	NK is China’s _client_.

Most important: China has just suffered a huge loss of face.  _*’Face’*_ is hugely important in Asia.  China must have redress for this.  I suspect that the prevailing emotion in the Central Committee is cold fury; I think the Chinese must have invented the maxim: *don’t get mad, get even.*

The question is: how?

Forget US warships intercepting vessels near to Chinese waters – China is _growing_ its power and influence and sharing it with the UASA would be contrary to China’s vital interests and China, like America, is promoting and protecting its own vital interests.

Forget about any food/fuel sanctions.  The Chinese central government believes that it has the _Mandate of the People_ (as opposed to other dynasties which believed they had the ‘Mandate of Heaven’ – and _heaven_, Chinese heaven, is a concept which occupies years of study) and the Chinese _people_ are not interested in causing millions more deaths by starvation and exposure amongst the Koreans.

Forget about any significant action by the _six_ or the UNSC.  China needs to solve this problem without outside interference – this is Asia and, according to many, many Chinese, Asia needs to be China’s _sphere of influence_.  The Chinese actively support President Bush’s resolve to avoid direct, bilateral NK/USA discussions – an ineffective group of six is far, far preferable.

Regime change is the most likely answer,

It is not simple.  China does have _leverage_, of course, but it tends towards the _massive_, sledgehammer type of leverage – not what the Chinese want to use.  They do not want to impose any additional hardship on the Koreans; they do not want millions of Korean refugees; they really, really do not want a regional war.  They want a subservient, peaceful, prosperous North Korean client state – even if it is (loosely) tied to South Korea.  The need is to dispose of Kim Jong Il without creating unmanageable turmoil.  Only the NK military can assume power and manage an *acceptable, to the Chinese*, transition from one dictatorship to another.  The elder Kim, in the ‘50s, structured the NK state and military along Russian/Chinese _revolutionary_ lines – there is no ‘top dog’, no 2I/C as it were; if there were Kim Jong Il would be dead and buried.  The top level’s authority is fragmented and pits any and every one ‘leader’ against all the others.  None of the leaders has his hands on enough ‘levers of power’ to take control of enough of the security apparatus to guarantee a successful _coup_.  It is a difficult conundrum, especially for the Chinese.

Difficult is not impossible and I suspect that senior Chinese generals are – as I think they have been for years – in close contact with all of the top tier leaders in NK, trying to identify _coalitions_ which can, with Chinese support, seize power, kill Kim, and forge new security ties with China – all without surrendering their nuclear weapons.

The Chinese have little or no interest, that I can see, in making East Asia safer or friendlier for America.  It does have a great interest in preserving the peace in East Asia, especially for South Korea which invests heavily in China.  It does have a huge interest in being seen to have resolved, single-handedly, a significant regional crisis – further marginalizing America, Japan and Russia in the process.  It has a massive interest in restoring its _face_ after NK’s insult.

I suspect that we will see the _coup_, within about a year – while vengeance is a dish best served cold it cannot be too cold.  Additionally, I suspect that China will stop Kim Jong Il from sharing his technology with some of America’s enemies – but this is a dangerous game because China sees itself as being surrounded, including by dangerous Muslim _imperialist_ radicals in Central Asia.  It will not wish to allow anything which aids the _Islamist_* cause in West/Central Asia.

----------

* There’s that word again.  It means a whole paragraph of characterizations of radical, Arab (Persian, too?) cultural and fundamentalist Muslim religious _movements_ but _Islamist_ will have to do, for now.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Old Guy said:
			
		

> I think North Korea is a hollow shell.  Kim's saber rattling is intended, I believe, to keep everyone off balance and to extort more aid from China and the West.  Whether he's over-stepped himself -- only time will tell.
> 
> Armies are more than mere numbers.  NK is a humanitarian disaster, getting worse by the day.  The deteriorating situation in the countryside and cities has to have an effect on the military, no matter how draconian the regime.
> 
> NK generals may be eating well, but how about the rank-and-file?  If the combat troops are getting adequate rations, what about the mechanics and other technicians needed to keep any military force in motion?  Logistically, how much combat could the NK forces sustain before they ran out of supplies?
> 
> It is probably impossible for anyone outside North Korea to imagine the extent of the horror there.  The entire country is slowly becoming a vast, open-air tomb.
> 
> Napolean is supposed to have said: "Never forget the enemy marches through the same mud."
> 
> The mud, figuratively speaking, is becoming neck-deep on the NK side.
> 
> In some ways, I hope I'm wrong, but I fear that I am not.
> 
> Jim



Jim I think you are bang on, NK is dependent on aid from other countries, the refusal to give aid or trade with them is likely to be the death sentence of the regime. We should turn our backs on them. Meanwhile China should maintain contact with NK's  military in order to convince them that if the Great Leader had an accident, it might be the best thing for the country.


----------



## Trinity

+1 Edward


----------



## FGH_Recce_DJ

Yes but remember, it was Saddam, not Kim Jong that had the weapons of mass destruction, way to drop the ball Bush, way to drop the ball, If anyone needs me i'll be building my fallout shelter........


----------



## GAP

South Korea does not pose a threat to China. In fact, as you noted, it invests heavily in Chinese infrastructure. By reuniting the two countries, China is seen as a benefactor that can make things happen when America couldn't. It lessens the American strength in the area and brings the Korea's under the Chinese umbrella if only for trade and regional influence.


----------



## Edward Campbell

GAP said:
			
		

> ... By reuniting the two countries, China is seen as a benefactor that can make things happen when America couldn't. It lessens the American strength in the area and brings the Korea's under the Chinese umbrella if only for trade and regional influence.



Yes, indeed.  But the Chinese are cautious and they observed how much trouble the _digestion_ of East Germany posed for the West German economy.  The social and economic gulfs between NK and SK are, I think, far greater than was the case between EG and WG.  The reconstruction of NK will consume much, maybe too much for China's taste, of SK and Japanese capital.

Money will cost more, something - someone? - will have to give.  The US dollar is a weak _reserve_ currency and it is not clear to me that the US Federal Reserve bank has full control over it so may not be able to 'back-stop' the reunification of Korea _circa_ 2010 as it did the reunification of Germany _circa_ 1990.  The Euro is not ready for prime time and Asia's economy, alone, is not up to the costs of full-scale, à la Germany, reunification of Korea, so: who pays?

The answer is: China.

If reunification is the chosen path then there can be little hope of telling the NK people to “wait a while longer, starve a little more,” etc.  As with Germany, once political integration is in place the people are *entitled* to share the wealth.

China holds a significant portion of US debt – in essence it props up the US dollar with its own growth.  China needs, desperately needs, continued, high US consumption to finance Chinese expansion.  It does that by, essentially, providing an _import subsidy_ to the US in the form of artificially low prices.  It will, soon, need to divert some of its _reserves_ (US debt) to Korea.  It will want SK and Japanese help – with their hard currencies.  China will need to find new investments to offset SK and Japanese money diverted, for a generation or two, to Korea, because China needs to sustain its own growth – see my conversation with Echo-9 about a week ago.

It gives me a headache, but I still suspect that China will try for some, quite limited, reunification so that it can try to restrain the rate at which NK will consume the available capital.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

SmartAssIrishMan said:
			
		

> Yes but remember, it was Saddam, not Kim Jong that had the weapons of mass destruction, way to drop the ball Bush, way to drop the ball, If anyone needs me i'll be building my fallout shelter........





Except for the minor points that Iraq had a active WMD program, that the nuke portion of it was only discovered after his brother –inlaw defected, that they had used WMD’s against their population and their historical enemy Iran. Iraq also got caught building a nuke capable long range rocket that broke the UN resolution on Iraq owning offensive weapons.
 The sanctions were collapsing and Saddam would have started rebuilding his WMD programs in short order, we would then be facing the scenario of a nuke armed Iran and Iraq, both quite likely to use tactical nukes. The last war cost the countries 1.2 million dead. 

The only reason that the US hasn’t bombed the crap out of the NK is the fact that NK can destroy most of Seoul in a few hours by conventional artillery and that the US is in no position to fight a 1 million man army holed up in very easily defended terrain on the doorstep of China. A Korean war will make Vietnam, Iraq & Afghanistan combined look like a cakewalk.


----------



## Old Guy

Edward, I think, has the best overall take on the Chinese situation and intentions.  However, China is not in complete control of her own future, much less the future of other Asian countries.  Her burgeoning economy is creating internal problems of political and practical nature.  She has several million surplus young men reaching adulthood in the next few years -- a consequence of one-child per family laws.  Islamist radicals are a worrisome threat, as is the growing power of India.  Then there is Taiwan and increasingly powerful competition from other countries on the Pacific Rim.

As for war with North Korea -- it is unlikely to come to that.  The NK can't 'destroy most of Seoul in a few hours', Colin.  Any artillery strike of that magnitude invites counter-battery fire and the guns are open to air attack, at least when they're in firing position.  I don't mean to say that NK couldn't damage Seoul heavily, but only that such action would be costly to them and take some time.

Like the entire situation, NK effectiveness in attacking SK is an unknown quantity, but bound to be effected by other factors.  

jim


----------



## Colin Parkinson

My information is that they have 13,000 guns within range, most are protected and all would have stockpiled ammo and target data. It would takes days to destroy that many guns. Even if they only had 24hrs to fire, and were able to put out an average of 1 rd every 3 minutes, that is still is 6,240,000 rds hitting the city      (crap even I had to check my figures, several times) Even if only half those guns shoot the 24 hrs at that rate it is still 3,000,000 rds!!!

Could they sustain it after the intial attack, highly unlikely, they would shoot till destroyed or out of ammo and I doubt they have the ability to move much resupply even without being attacked.

I also doubt that the combined resources of the US and SK could effectivly dent the intial bombardment in time to prevent huge numbers of causlities. I hope the SK has a functional civil defence plan still. 

an article 


North Korean guns, clear and present danger to South
By Jon Herskovitz  |  June 27, 2006

SEOUL (Reuters) - If the world is alarmed about a North Korean long-range missile, for most South Koreans it is just one more addition to their neighbor's arsenal which could already devastate around half the population in a few hours.

Seoul, Tokyo and Washington have all warned Pyongyang not to test-fire a long-range missile, which has apparently been prepared for launch, saying it would imperil regional security and bring a harsh response.

The first time North Korea tried out a long-range missile -- in 1998, firing it over Japan -- it sent panicked regional financial markets into a tailspin.

But for South Korea, a more immediate danger may be North Korea's artillery.

The capital Seoul, only 60 km (37 miles) south of the heavily fortified Demilitarized Zone that has divided the peninsula since the end of the Korean War in 1953, has long been within range of one of the world's most powerful artillery batteries.

South Korea's Defense Ministry said the North had amassed more than 13,000 pieces of artillery and multiple rocket launchers, much of it aimed at Seoul.

Jane's International Defense Review estimates that if North Korea launched an all-out barrage, it could achieve an initial fire rate of 300,000 to 500,000 shells per hour into the Seoul area -- home to about half the country's 48.5 million people.

The biggest are 170-mm self-propelled artillery guns and 240-mm multiple rocket launchers. It also has hundreds of Scud missiles that could hit any part of South Korea.

North Korea is also thought to have been working to attach chemical and biological weapons to its long-range artillery.

"The threat from the North's artillery is the indiscriminate firing against our capital region and urban centers with its multiple rocket launchers and field artillery," a South Korean defense officer said.

Military experts note that South Korean and U.S. forces have worked for decades to perfect a counter strike. They also say that impoverished North Korea probably has not kept all of its guns in working order and may be short of shells.

But as a relatively basic weapons system, a rain of artillery would be the North's most effective and reliable way to hit the South fast and hard, they add.

Ordinary South Koreans appear to have become largely used to the threat, paying decreasing attention over the years to regular civil defense drills that were once mandatory.

The two Koreas are technically still at war because the 1950-1953 Korean War ended in a truce and not a peace treaty.

Though the North keeps most of its 1.2-million-man army near the border, the two Koreas have reached agreements in recent years aimed at reducing military tensions.

Japan, South Korea and the United States, along with China and Russia, have been locked in three years of now-stalled negotiations talks to dismantle North Korea's nuclear program.

Officials and military analysts say Pyongyang wants to develop a long-range missile to be able to carry a nuclear warhead.

But according to a recent survey by a state-funded research group, South Koreans view China -- and not North Korea -- as the biggest threat to their security 10 years from now.

(With additional reporting by Jack Kim) 

http://www.boston.com/news/world/asia/articles/2006/06/27/north_korean_guns_clear_and_present_danger_to_south?mode=PF


----------



## Brad Sallows

Finally, a use for all those greenbacks the Chinese are holding: renovating NK.


----------



## Old Guy

Ha-ha!  Okay.  Whatever.  I think the article is cherry-picking information designed to make the NK army seem more than they are.  Let's try to be realistic.  

I don't doubt that NK has 10-13,000 artillery pieces.  I do doubt that even a majority of these are capable of hitting Seoul from 37+ miles.  In fact, the 170mm gun is the only one known to be able to reach that far.  The guns couldn't be packed in layers right at the DMZ.  They have to be spread out somewhat in bunkers and protected caves, etc.  The article seems to assume that every artillery piece in the NK army will be arranged on the DMZ with much of it concentrated on Seoul.  From a practical military standpoint, I find that to be ludicrous.  

According to Global Security, which presents its information with plenty of caveats, the NK have around 8,000 artillery pieces (about 4500 SP and 3500 towed), plus about 3500 artillery rockets.  South Korean sources estimate that the NK have 400-500 long-range artillery pieces within range of Seoul.  Given realistic firing rates, these could sustain a rate of around 5,000 rounds per minute until their ready ammunition was expended.  Since weapon attrition would begin immediately and no one can sustain those rates of fire for very long, added to the difficulties inherent in hitting a specific target at extreme range, the damage to Seoul within the first few hours would be tremendous, but the city would not be 'wiped out.'  After the first few rounds any fire direction signals would be jammed and all subsequent rounds would be area-targeted.

Cities are hard to kill.  If the NK struck without warning, civilian casualties would be heavy and initial targets highly likely to be put out of action.  After that, though, artillery effectiveness would degenerate to a crap shoot.  A lethal situation for anyone in the wrong place at the wrong time, but not militarily effective.

Hell.  I didn't intend to kick off a discussion.  Suffice it to say that the variation between the possible and the probable is very great in this situation, just as it is in most military scenarios.

jim


----------



## midget-boyd91

Well, if Kim whatcha-ma-call-him wants to see actions like naval blockades as an act of war.. what should the detonation of a nuclear device be taken as? If he is that eager to get in a scuffle Western countries and Japan should take THAT as an act of war. Saddam thought that his 4 000 tanks and million men would be a massive war.... 4 days and he was done... Kim has mostly MiG-17's and 21's and rag-tag equipment.
 Fifty bucks says NK loses.

More seriously though, North and South Korea have been scratching their trigger fingers for decades.. no doubt that it will eventually happen, so it would be quicker and safer to have it happen sooner rather than later when they actually know HOW to use the nukes. If they take is as a declaration of war to put up naval blockades, thats their problem, soon afterwards the people will have food and can be with relatives in SK.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

The reality is that anyone who does know what the real situation is, will not/can not release that information, we have to operate on best guesses. The NK army will have a short window to inflict as much damge as possible. I do agree that they lack the ability to fight sustanied operation and will be destroyed in place, but not before they carry out their main task.

Using your figures, 5,000 rds per minute hitting the city and immediate areas, that's 300,000 rds in one hour. If they were so bold to launch an attack in afternoon rush hour with no warning, the number of dead and wounded would overwhelm the civil defence units. I don't think we in the west have seen that amount of artillery fired since WWII and have little first hand comprehension of it's effect. All of the bombardments we have seen recently have been by our own allies and generally designed to minimize damage beyond the immediate target. The bombardment would be all over the place and continuous for quite some time, it would cause a great deal of destruction, secondary fires, panic and collapse of the functioning infrastructure, once the initial bombardment is over, the population will be in a hurry to get out of range and out of the way of a possible ground invasion, the city will grind to halt and be effectively destroyed for some time, certainly until the threat is clearly dealt with. Look at how long it is taking for New Orleans to rebound. If the attack is not follwed up with an invasion by either side, and the border remains the same, peoples confidence will be shaken and reluctant to return. this will have a effect on the economy of SK and it's Asian partners. Even if the artillery is mostly destroyed, it will take a great deal of time to restore the confidence and the damage done.

You can be sure that the possible effect is not lost on the SK government.


----------



## midget-boyd91

I agree with what Colin P said.. the only thing that I see that is wrong with that is the fact that the US keeps 30 000 troops on the border to deter any such attacks. The bulk of the SK military is also very near the DMZ.


----------



## geo

midget - if you read some of Tomahawk 6s posts, you'll note that the US' troop strength in SK is down from those heddy days....

That peace dividend strikes again


----------



## GAP

I'm under the impression that there was a major drawdown citing the peace dividend, and then another smaller one as Iraq ramped up. I have no clue what the US has there now that is effective immediately. I am sure the NK's know though. 

There was a piece a year or so ago, maybe longer, that even had pics of how extensively tunneled  the DMZ was. The tunnels were big enough to allow three tanks side by side to egress. Guess what that does for the guys between the exit points and the DMZ.


----------



## Old Guy

Colin, I think you and I are on the same page.  I think the NK would be lucky to keep up that rate of fire for more than thirty minutes, but even area targeting at a far reduced rate will cause a lot of damage.  I think SK civil defense abilities are a lot better than average, but they would certainly be overwhelmed by the casualties.

midget -- the US troop presence is much reduced, as geo points out.  However, their presence near the DMZ is actually a liability, due to the fact that their bases are all within easy artillery range of the North.  At present, the troops are being shifted south, out of harm's way.  Someone finally realized that major formations of US (and ROK) troops are a better deterrent if they're situated out of artillery range.

geo -- peace dividend.  Yeah.  Kind of leaves a bad taste, don't it?

jim


----------



## Colin Parkinson

I think they were placed up front during the cold war to act as a "tripwire", so the Soviets and Chinese knew that any invasion of SK would be a direct attack on US Forces and escalate the conflict immediately. The advantage of this deployment does not outweigh the disadvantages and the actually withdrawal was hampered by acquiring land to build the new bases.


----------



## Old Guy

The new main base, according to Army Times, houses both US Army and associated ROK command elements.  The move has cost a lot of money and, again according to AT, isn't completed yet.

jim


----------



## tomahawk6

Its true that the North Koreans have significant forces close to the DMZ, but so does the ROK Army. Global security has what is generally believed to be the OPLAN for combat operations in Korea.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/oplan-5027.htm

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/rok/army.htm

Here is the current strength of 8th Army in Korea. If you look at the US Forces Korea site you will see assigned units from other services. 

http://8tharmy.korea.army.mil/

The Units: 
2nd Infantry Division

1st Heavy Brigade Combat Team 
Task Force, 1-72 Armor Regiment
1st Battalion, 15th Field Artillery
2nd Battalion, 9th Infantry (M)
302nd Brigade Support Battalion
1st Brigade Special Troops Battalion

Combat Aviation Brigade 
1st Battalion, 2nd Attack Battalion
602nd Aviation Support Battalion 
2nd Battalion (Assault), 2nd Aviation Regiment
2-52nd Aviation Regiment (GSAB)
3rd Squadron, 6th U.S. Cavalry Regiment              
164th Air Traffic Services Group

2nd Fires Brigade 
1st Battalion, 38th Field Artillery
6th Battalion, 37th Field Artillery
702d Brigade Support Battalion

7th Air Force
8th Fighter Wing 
51st Fighter Wing


----------



## zipperhead_cop

As cool as this game of Risk is, does anyone have any idea as to WHY he did it?  What was he trying to prove?  How could pissing off China have ever been seen as a good thing?  This can't be as simple as a bored whack job conducting attention seeking behaviour?   ???


----------



## warspite

I have to agree with the devastation an large scale artillery bombardment would wreak on S. Korea, both physically and to the nations moral.
I cite as evidence *our* bombardment of vimy ridge before we took it from the germans.
-it was at the time the worlds largest artillery bombardment
-could be heard as far away as London
-We bombarded the ridge constantly* for a week straight*
-The germans had a name for that week, I'm sorry I can't remember it but I'm 98% sure it contained their word for *terror*

   Doesn't matter even if it hits you. Imagine if all a sudden a shell landed in your neighborhood... right now as your reading this... what would go through your head? Probably WTF. But what if while your trying to figure out what the heck was that there's another explosion... and another... and another.... and so the night goes on and on and on.
   Morning comes. Your neighbors house is now a crater. Smoke from fires drifts by your window. The sound of sirens is in the air.....
AND THE EXPLOSIONS JUST KEEP ON COMING.......
    Don't know about you but if you haven't had artillery exploding at your door I imagine it would be pretty terrifying. I know it would scare the heck out of me. And that means it would scare the heck out of a lot of people. 
   Sure it's easy to say... well North Korea isn't capable of flattening Seoul with artillery fire. If even there was 1 shell landing every minute or two I imagine theres going to be a lot of chaos and terror which really is just as good a result as flattening the city.


----------



## vonGarvin

warspite said:
			
		

> -The germans had a name for that week, I'm sorry I can't remember it but I'm 98% sure it contained their word for *terror*


*Woche des Leidens*
of "Week of suffering", which also has Christian overtones, as I believe that the German for the last week of Christ is also known as the "Woche des Leidens"


----------



## Brixxie

zipperhead_cop said:
			
		

> As cool as this game of Risk is, does anyone have any idea as to WHY he did it?  What was he trying to prove?  How could pissing off China have ever been seen as a good thing?  This can't be as simple as a bored whack job conducting attention seeking behaviour?   ???



I would sorta like to know what the point of the testing is , I am so uneducated with this part of warefare. But who has nuclear arms  ,  and who decides who can have them. And why would Kim be testing if not to show agresaggression


----------



## Edward Campbell

zipperhead_cop said:
			
		

> As cool as this game of Risk is, does anyone have any idea as to WHY he did it?  What was he trying to prove?  How could pissing off China have ever been seen as a good thing?  This can't be as simple as a bored whack job conducting attention seeking behaviour?   ???



I think Kim and his _handlers_, the NK generals – more than a dozen of them in the ‘top tier’ – are playing a huge game of _blind man’s bluff_ in reverse.  They hope, with some reason, that they have everyone else shambling about in blindfolds while NK baits them with insults and threats.

Why do this?

The country is an economic basket case; it is bankrupt and starving.  It will, of its own accord, collapse, within a very few years, into cruelly violent chaos; starvation does that to people.  There is no sensible way that the leadership can prevent this except by prostrating themselves at the feet of SK (supported by Japan and the USA) or China.  In either case the _leadership_, and their families and friends are purged: quickly, quietly and fatally if the Chinese take over.  There is little incentive to negotiate with either of the only two players with any real power on the peninsula.  Better, in the eyes of the _leadership_, to threaten and cajole and hope against hope that China and/or the SK (with JP and USA) will _blink_ and provide the massive aid which NK requires – for a generation – without tossing the _leadership_ on to history’s dung heap.  They, caring nothing at all for the NK people, are willing to play this game to its end because the alternative is so stark.  Almost anything must seem preferable to execution in some remote, cold, dusty Chinese small-town barracks square.

The Chinese are hoping, I think, that they can, *peacefully*, _finesse_ this issue so that SK, Japan and the USA pay the freight while China gets, at worst, a _compliant_ neighbour in the new NK, perhaps NK united (in a free trade area or even a very loose federation) with SK.

I think the Chinese *need* regional stability: no wars, no violent revolutions, no refugees, no economic panic.  I am pretty sure NK needs an uninterrupted supply food and fuel if it is to avoid sudden, violent collapse and chaos.  Therefore, I suspect China will keep sending food and fuel to NK.  I believe, therefore, that Japan’s sanctions (cutting off NK exports to Japan), announced today, (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aPb.FrO6h1XA&refer=home ) play into China’s hands.  Japan provided NK with much of its hard currency.  Cutting that money supply will, indeed, make it harder for NK to acquire technology but it will strengthen China’s grip on NK, too.

But in short, for the NK _leadership_, being firmly gripped by the Chinese is better than being executed by them, so the childrens' game of _blind man's bluff_ goes on.


----------



## geo

Brixxie said:
			
		

> I would sorta like to know what the point of the testing is , I am so uneducated with this part of warefare. But who has nuclear arms  ,  and who decides who can have them. And why would Kim be testing if not to show agresaggression


NK has had many issues in the past and the UN, the IMF and all sorts of other organisations have dictated terms to NK before they would bail him out... between famine and other Socioeconomic problems, NK didn't have a choice but to comply but, from what I have read, NK crops are plentyful this year and NK is flexing what mucsle it has - telling the world & showing it's population that it can't be pushed around......


----------



## Colin Parkinson

I have no problems with China strenghtening it's grip on NK, hopefully by killing off the top tier and placing someone competent at the top who will guide NK into the 20th century (yes I know it's the 21st century) with minamal disruption to SE Asia.


----------



## a_majoor

Trying to contain or control the DPRK will require far more time, effort and resources than anyone in the West is willing to commit at this time. Sealing the borders to the West and forcing China to pay the bill for their problem (and it is their problem, as they fear a collapse of the DPRK and the subsequent flood of refugees coming across the Yalu river) works to our advantage, since China now has to focus attention and resources against the DPRK, which are no longer available to use against us.

A Chinese dominated DPRK isn't that much of a threat to us, the Chinese will probably use it as an economic resource base with a Procouncil living in the Dear Leader's palace and dictating terms and conditions (disguised as contracts to placate the West) to the Korean people, but will then have to devote even more resources to contain the North Koreans. The Chinese (according to Kaplan) might prefer a hunk of the DPRK's territory an a seaport, and allow the South Koreans to bear the cost of reunification and rebuilding the rest. The DPRK will become a game of "hot potato" between the Chinese and Western powers, with the object of the game being to make the loser pay for rebuilding the shattered remains of the DPRK when the music stops. Place the Dear Leader on ignore for a while longer, his time is coming to an end.


----------



## tomahawk6

I wish you were right about Kim's longevity, but I am sceptical. The guy has managed to stay in power since Kim Il Sung's death, no small feat. Keep hoping to turn on the tv one day to a Romanian style people's revolt.
But until that day we have to deal with North Korea as it plays one of its two trump cards a nuclear weapon and refugees. The only real options we have with regard to North Koreas are economic. Stop the flow of money from the ex pat community in Japan and the regime will have no choice but to moderate.


----------



## a_majoor

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> But until that day we have to deal with North Korea as it plays one of its two trump cards a nuclear weapon and refugees. The only real options we have with regard to North Koreas are economic. Stop the flow of money from the ex pat community in Japan and the regime will have no choice but to moderate.



My point exactly. The stoppage of financial and material aid from the West puts the ball firmly in China's court, they either pick up the tab or deal with the after effect of the DPRK imploding. The regime itself will not moderate, as was pointed out in an earlier post they have no incentive. If we engage in talks, provide aid etc. they will continue with nuclear blackmail. If we do not engage they will have to take extreme steps to ensure the survival of the regime (which is what is happening now anyway).


----------



## Synthos

quote from times.hankooki.com/lpage/nation/200610/kt2006101217510111990.htm

"``If the Bush administration makes more provocations, both New York City and Tokyo will be blazed,’’ Kim said. He added the North is targeting the United States but does not want to wage a war against the South as long as Seoul takes a neutral position."

I don't know how reliable that article is, however. In the article it seems relatively clear that as long as SK "stays neutral", Soeul won't get the shit kicked out of it. 

A couple thoughts of mine on the situation:
     NK might be hoping that other countries will want to buy the technology from them to help support their troubled economy.
     
     Edward, is NK's situtation really bad enough that (in however many years) they will -submit- themselves to China? That seems very unlikely to me, but then again I really don't know how bad NK is atm.

     If the US/UN imposed sanctions on NK, what would the "war" be? NK does not have the military prowess to haul ass across the pacific and fight there. Would NK strike out at Japan to force battles in Asia?

     Say that there was no nuke detonation and Kim is just playing this to see how things turn out.... Is he really that big of a gambler?

On another note,
      I've heard that Israel would be most likely to attack Iran if it they developed the capacity to produce a nuclear weapon... Is there any truth to this?


----------



## a_majoor

Many of you may have seen this image or something similar; lookcarefully and you will see that there are very few avenues of approach in terms of economic sanctions for the DPRK. Cut off the food and oil, and it is over. http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/dprk/dprk-dark.htm

Oc course, the DPRK is not the only place this might be true, extrapolate the night view on this map based on concentrations of transport links etc: http://www.prairiecentre.com/pdf/cp_map.pdf


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## TCBF

No big deal.  The Air Raid Wardens just enforce the blackout.  That's all.


----------



## Edward Campbell

Synthos said:
			
		

> ...  Edward, is NK's situtation really bad enough that (in however many years) they will -submit- themselves to China? That seems very unlikely to me, but then again I really don't know how bad NK is atm.
> ...



I was trying to say that if the crops fail again and again - as I believe they will if the NK government does not get a grip on its own domestic policies and programmes (which labour along as poor relations to the military) - then NK will collapse and they will have no alternative except China or, more likely, China + SK supported by JP and US.  

I think the Chinese intend to _replace_ Kim Jong Il and most of the top-tier of military leaders with a fairly small, friendly coalition from within that top-tier but I acknowledge that this is a slow, difficult, risky programme.  I doubt that the Chinese certain about who will be in that _friendly coalition_ and I suspect  that many, many Chinese officials are uncertain about their own ability to _get it right the first time._

This is a dangerous place and I am certain  that not enough people are smart enough or well enough informed to do the right thing, right.


----------



## SchreudersCDR

> This does not sound good at all


 What I find most interesting is how small the testing measured (even more than _that_ it happened to be seismographically etched in several databases).  The idea that there could be mini-nukes makes one a little concerned.  In terms of power politics, the North Korean government exercised its right to say don't touch, because, they tested their capability in open.  In terms of balacing power, one would expect _someone_ to have missles pointed at north america.  Just in case.  Please let us not live in fear.  What matters now is what always has - peace, diplomacy, trade, education, etcetera.


----------



## tomahawk6

Some experts feel that the test could have been a trigger for a hydrogen type bomb, which if true would be very unsettling.


----------



## a_majoor

Whatever happened at the bottom of the mine shaft was very small. In order of probability I would have to say a "fizzle" yeild due to incomplete fission is probably top of the list, with a dummy detonation of five or so KT of TNT running second. 

Whatever skill and dedication the DPRK's scientific cadre might happen to have, I find the idea that they could make a thermonuclear trigger rather unlikely, particularly for the first "live" test.


----------



## TCBF

"Please let us not live in fear."

- Why stop now?   I was five years old during the Cuban Missle Crisis.  Is anyone my age or older actually losing sleep a handfull of possible warheads in the DPRK? I doubt it.


----------



## exsemjingo

What a difference a week makes.  First there are fears that N.Korea has actually become a Nuclear threat to the point where even Russia condemns the tests.  Now there have been suggestions that the test was a failure.  This in itself is incredible, because provided that one has fissionable plutonium 238 (correct me on the isotope if I am wrong), all one really has to do to make it explode is hit two pieces together.  Any idiot can make the bomb apparatus.  North Korea supposedly has a nuclear power plant so they should by all accounts be able to produce Plutonium 238. 
Maybe this does not work either.  That would explain all the darkness in night-time satelite photos of the country. ;D

At any rate, two important points suggest that the status quo really has not changed:
1) Even North Korea admits (even brags) that they have to develop their own Nuclear program.  They should be able to purchase technology from China, or at least have Chinese nukes based there covertly.  The Chinese do not trust N.Korea, so they are not free to threaten anybody.
2) Northe Korea still has one of the largest armies in the world with a deeply indoctrinated population.  Any attempt to invade would result in casualties far above the tolerance of even the most hawkish western generals.

I predict more of the same, which is the continued existence of North Korea as a convenient puppet-state for China.  The Chinese seem happy enough, for now.


----------



## chanman

fissionable material is either U-235 or plutonium.

I wonder if they went for a gun-type or an implosion mechanism - it looks like the gun-type would be simpler to pull off.


----------



## SeaKingTacco

> Any attempt to invade would result in casualties far above the tolerance of even the most hawkish western generals.



Nice generalization, jack.  Think back to the run up to Gulf war 2- was it the Generals or the Politicians who were counciling caution? In a western democracy, who sends who to war? For the most part, Western generals are very casualty adverse, because they know and understand the business of warfare and mostly, have a genuine like, if not love of the soldiers they command.  Politicians, on the other hand...


----------



## a_majoor

exsemjingo said:
			
		

> What a difference a week makes.  First there are fears that N.Korea has actually become a Nuclear threat to the point where even Russia condemns the tests.  Now there have been suggestions that the test was a failure.  This in itself is incredible, because provided that one has fissionable plutonium 238 (correct me on the isotope if I am wrong), all one really has to do to make it explode is hit two pieces together.  Any idiot can make the bomb apparatus.  North Korea supposedly has a nuclear power plant so they should by all accounts be able to produce Plutonium 238.



Without going into mind numbing technicalties, just "banging two pieces together" isn't enough. As the pieces approach each other (in a Uranium "gun" bomb) or the density of the Plutonium sphere approaches criticality as the explosive shock wave compresses it, neutrons are being released and starting fission reactions. The material is moving at "mechanical" speeds, while the reactions are taking place at "quantum" speeds, many thousands of times faster. If the implosion is asymmetrical, the fission reaction will blow the Plutonium sphere apart before it reaches full critical density and prevents the reaction from achieving its full yield.

Another factor related to criticality is the purity of the material. Plutonium comes in several isotopes which have different fissile potential. Unless the reprocessed material is very "clean" and not contaminated by the other isotopes, you may end up with a device the size of a railroad locomotive due to the need for shielding, cooling etc. to prevent a premature melt down. A Uranium bomb full of impurities will probably release a burst of heat and neutrons before melting.

If it wasn't for these (and probably other) factors, nuclear weapons could be produced in your basement. So, don't attempt to break the Laws of Physics. There is no appeal.


----------



## couchcommander

There are some issues with making, or allowing, NK to be China's problem. Though it would, in the short run, relieve some pressure from us (the grand "us"), and put the onus for resolving this deteriorating situation on a strategic competitor, not to mention forcing them to be responsible for their actions in supporting this regime - I see a number of long term difficulties that would arise.

Namely, lets assume we wake up tomorrow and the NK state has dissolved - if we have allowed China to incorporate NK into its agreed sphere of influence, they are likely to take it over and install a puppet regime. If at this point we decide all of a sudden to interfere, this will create a large amount of hostility with the Chinese possibly leading to conflict. The other option of course, the one I think to be more preferable, is to have SK open it doors to the citizens and quickly move to unify the peninsula with the backing of the major democratic pacific, and NATO nations. For this though, SK and the other democracies have to take an active interest in NK and prevent China from asserting itself as the dominant power over that nation. By active interest, understand I in no way mean interacting in a hospitable manner with them, but rather directly enforcing strict sanctions and working to subvert the leadership and economy of the state - while keeping them distanced from China and constantly asserting our own freedom of movement in this area. Understand though that the Chinese will be no more pleased with a peaceful, democratic nation on its border than we would be happy with a authoritarian oligarchical state on ours - so we will be working against them to assert our ownership. Trade relations with China, in this regard, should be used as a leverage tool, along with a host of other issues, to keep them from interacting and supporting the regime (there are a number of trade disputes with China before the WTO which could be "resolved amicably" if China agreed), not to mention the simple threat of recognizing Taiwan's independance if China touches NK with a ten foot pole. 

In the end though, the point is that I think it is in fact in our best interested to actually try and distance, as much as possible, North Korea and China. Further we should become as involved as we possibly can by actively trying to disrupt the normal functioning of the state in the hopes of creating a sufficient crises to bring about mass unrest, support destabilizing elements who can direct this unrest towards regime change, while further selling the "western image" to the North Korean people through our tried and true methods - Coca-Cola, Nike, and Hollywood.


----------



## Synthos

couchcommander said:
			
		

> while further selling the "western image" to the North Korea people through our tried and true methods - Coca-Cola, Nike, and Hollywood.



You forgot one! McDonalds!


----------



## chanman

From the Economist - The aid that NK is getting from its northern neighbour might not be as big as you would expect.  The WFP is the UN's World Food Programme, responsible for food aid.

http://www.economist.com/world/asia/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8058416



> There is meanwhile a hoary assumption that China will not let North Korea collapse by suspending the aid it is often supposed to have supplied: it is said to have sent 500,000 tonnes of grain in 2005. Yet household surveys by the WFP last year found no Chinese grain. Even before the proliferation crisis, the International Crisis Group, a think-tank, concluded from research in China that its food aid was minuscule. It is probably now smaller still.
> 
> By contrast, North Korea's trade with China (including in food) has grown fast. Last year the country imported over $1 billion-worth of Chinese goods. New UN sanctions against it may change that. This week branches of the Bank of China close to the border stopped doing North Korea-related business, either at their government's decree or because of concerns that their loans could soon go bad.
> 
> North Koreans are somewhat more protected today than they were before the great famine of the mid-1990s, in which perhaps 1m died. Many can smuggle, trade, bribe, and grow food on individual plots. Still, according to the UN, a third of North Korean women with children under 24 months are malnourished or anaemic, and more than a third of children under six are stunted. One outlet for the hungry in the 1990s was China, to which 50,000-100,000 North Koreans crossed. That route is now closing, at least for those without money. In the past month, authorities in China's north-east have cracked down with dawn raids on neighbourhoods in search of North Koreans. This week, a barbed-wire fence was going up along the border. China is taking no risks.


----------



## rregtc-etf

There is a saying in Japanese, "The nail that sticks up gets hammered down."  The Chinese have the biggest hammers in Asia and will use them if indeed NK is getting out of hand.  The fact that both are commie won't be an issue, it wasn't for the USSR kicking butts 1967 Czechoslovakia or for Chinese invasion of Vietnam and punch up in 1979.

The Chinese are the dominant force in Asia and will not lose face to NK defiance.


----------



## exsemjingo

couchcommander said:
			
		

> There are some issues with making, or allowing, NK to be China's problem.


We don't get to choose for this one.  North Korea has been well inside the Chinese sphere of influence since Chinese armies drove the UN forces from North Korea in 1951.


> Namely, lets assume we wake up tomorrow and the NK state has dissolved - if we have allowed China to incorporate NK into its agreed sphere of influence, they are likely to take it over and install a puppet regime.


Why would they do that?  The current situation is ideal for China.  They get a supplemental army in case of war with the west with no cost of upkeep during times of peace.  They get to have the best of both worlds.


> If at this point we decide all of a sudden to interfere, this will create a large amount of hostility with the Chinese possibly leading to conflict. The other option of course, the one I think to be more preferable, is to have SK open it doors to the citizens and quickly move to unify the peninsula with the backing of the major democratic pacific, and NATO nations.  By active interest, understand I in no way mean interacting in a hospitable manner with them, but rather directly enforcing strict sanctions and working to subvert the leadership and economy of the state - while keeping them distanced from China and constantly asserting our own freedom of movement in this area.


The only comparable situation to this was when Germany re-united in 1989.  They are still having problems integrating due to lingering Communist ideas.  In North Korea, they still live as if Mao were still in power.  As far as sanctions, they will only work with Chinese co-operation.  For now, an aggressive North Korea is not convenient for China, but this can change if they want it to.


> Trade relations with China, in this regard, should be used as a leverage tool, along with a host of other issues, to keep them from interacting and supporting the regime (there are a number of trade disputes with China before the WTO which could be "resolved amicably" if China agreed)


Trade relations definitely help keep the peace with China, though I think it works the other way around.  Friendly relations with China are the larger issue, and N.Korea is available as their leverage tool.


> , not to mention the simple threat of recognizingon ours - so  Taiwan's independance if China touches NK with a ten foot pole.


That would be neither new, nor threatening.  The Americans have been keeping Taiwan in their back-pocket as a base for a war in Asia for some time now.  The counter-threat against China is the United States' nuclear arsenal, and if it came to that we would already be close to war.  The reason we were so worried last week is that China is free to do what it wants with N.Korea.  Chinese relations are the ones that matter, not North Korean ones.


> In the end though, the point is that I think it is in fact in our best interested to actually try and distance, as much as possible, North Korea and China. Further we should become as involved as we possibly can by actively trying to disrupt the normal functioning of the state in the hopes of creating a sufficient crises to bring about mass unrest, support destabilizing elements who can direct this unrest towards regime change, while further selling the "western image" to the North Korean people through our tried and true methods - Coca-Cola, Nike, and Hollywood.


Can't do it because of geography.  Can't do it because of a closed border and a controlled media.  The best we can do is keep China happy, and they will keep this backwards, army-disguised-as-a-country, Orwellian cubicle in check.


----------



## couchcommander

I think the reasons China would install a puppet regime in North Korea are pretty clear exemjingo. They'd much rather have a more stable, not completely aid dependant ally than the current unpredictable basket case they've got now. 

Yes, there would be problems with integration with SK, but I don't think I need to point out that it would be for the better in the long run. Strenghting of a western ally, resolving a long standing point of tensions, maybe neutralizing a nuclear armed rogue state? The economic differences between the two halves would be immense at first and would take a lot of capital to reconcile - but that also means there are amazing business opportunities to be had.

And yes, I do believe we can choose. Our actions will very much determine where NK falls. There is a reason they have been demanding that the US come to six part talks, namely because the want their resources and aid. The western image has a very very large pull, even for those who think we're the devil. You are right in that we will never be able to completely separate NK and China - they are neighbours and currently ideologically aligned. We can, however, distance them, using trade and Taiwan as leverage tools.

I am interested as what your reasoning is in regards to "can't do it because of geography. Can't do it because of a closed border and a controlled media?" That seems awfully linear. Bribes to certain generals and other officials can easily cross borders and geography, as can radio and televsision broadcasts. But I suspect you're also not considering the Chinese border, which, unlike the DMZ, trade does flow over. With them making only $900 a year, I don't think it would take a whole lot to bribe some border guards (I should add, nor do I think it has).


----------



## exsemjingo

North Korea may be unpredictable in terms of inflammatory political posturing, but as far as being a real threat, all their wayward efforts are contained.  No one else in the world will deal with North Korea except for the Chinese at this point.  China is also the only nation to have a long land border with North Korea.  Right now, China is fencing it off, but if they wanted to, they could trade with North Korea without permission from anybody.
Invading North Korea to install a puppet regime would be very costly in terms of casualties.  China has soldiers to spare, but any drop in those numbers would mean less available on other fronts, such as against India, Vietnam, Taiwan, or Russia.  When North Korea does begin to fall (and with the way Kim Jong Il runs things, it is only a matter of time) it would be much more advantageous for China offer support in trade, and keep the status quo.
As far as winning the population over with Coca-Cola, McDonald's, and Hollywood, this can only happen with an open border.  You may let a few things in with bribed officials, even high ranking generals, but it would not be enough to cause the population to turn.
I would not doubt that the United States secret service (and a few other nations') have tried to bribe a few officials in North Korea.  I would also not be surprised if said officials were quickly disposed of as soon as it looked like they might have divided loyalties.  Do not doubt the tenacity of an entrenched totalitarian regime.
For now, China is happy to trade with the west.  They tolerate North Korea as an insurance policy, but that relationship is still one-sided.


----------



## chanman

Got this off the CBC just now... 



> China's president sent State Councillor Tang Jiaxuan to North Korea on Thursday with a personal message for Kim about his Oct. 9 nuclear test. He returned to China later in the day.
> 
> Kim also told the Chinese diplomat he "is sorry about the nuclear test," according to the Chosun Ilbo daily.



http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2006/10/20/china-korea.html


----------



## Lancaster

Recently I have Emailed to our government and opposition on my concerns on the North Korean missile crissi:
To Minister of Foreign Affairs Hon. Peter Mackay: mackap1@parl.gc.ca   Oct 16/2006
To Foreign Affairs Critic Keith Martin: MartiK@parl.gc.ca 
Bcc: Senator Colin Kenny: kennyco@sen.parl.gc.ca

I have concerns about the North Korea’s missile and nuclear crisis which is developing.
Last October 2005 I have emailed to then Defence critic O’Connor and then Defence minister Bill Graham and Senator Colin Kenny  a wish list on Canadian military equipment (see www.canadianmilitary.blog.com) and about Korea’s and Iran’s missiles reaching our shore by next decade, and received no response from  Mr. O’Connor, and a weak form letter response from minister Bill Graham , but Senator Colin Kenny has the vision of replacing  our Tribal destroyers with news ones from the U.S in his senate reports. In my blog site I am least close to the prediction to than anyone else on North Korea missile capabilities. In my blog site I wished that Canada would purchase the U.S. Aegis Destroyer (or upgrade our Tribal destroyers to U.S. Aegis system with Standard missile 3) which are capable of knocking out missiles from North Korea and any future nuclear nations. Also if Canada is involved in naval blockade near North Korea there could be a nuclear shooting range, so Canada must take precautions in able to be protected from and destroy short range nuclear missile from North Korea. Also we may have to rethink about the Defence shield with the U.S., I realize that a majority of Canadians are opposed to it and is a political charged issue but we must protect our citizens.
 Do not underestimate North Korea missile and nuclear capabilities. Over the last decade, North Korea has developed and acquired mid range missile and nuclear capabilities. Presently North Korea has no long range delivery missile system to reach North America but how long will it take them to develop and acquire intercontinental nuclear missile capabilities?  Since North Korea has exploded a low yield nuclear  in the kilotons and how long will it take have the dangerous higher yield 1 megaton weapon that the Western allies have?  In 1998 North Korea sent a missile over Japan, upsetting everyone and receiving world condemnation and if that is not reckless what is? North Korea’s missile over Japan could have started “a war”, but thank fully Japan did not retaliated but is developing its own self missile defence systems. What about North Korea’s recent missile testing in July 2006, the long missile test failed but when will restart again? Question that should be asked by everyone is:
1) Since North Korea’s s nuclear explosion, could be there be a new race to acquire nuclear weapons by North Koreas neighbors? 
2) Will North Korea be a seller of nuclear weapons without restrictions, and will the UN. sanctions work?
3) Of the six countries talks with North Korea, China is the key country, because it sells and controls the oil and food to North Korea. Has China allowed North Korea to have nuclear tests?  Should the world pressure China to punish North Korea, and have them revoke there nuclear program?
4) The fifty year cold war nuclear checkmate of the old Soviet Union and the Western Allies were based on MAD that is Mutual Assured Destruction, each side having and developing new nuclear weapons but cannot overwhelm the other side. The Post Cold War era the other Nuclear power such as Britain, China, France, India, Israel, Pakistan, Russia and U.S. have had more stable and accountable governments than North Korea which is a Stalin dictatorship and accountable to no one, so now we have to deal with the unstable Kim Jong-il's regime that can endanger its neighbors and eventually Canada. According to U.S. National Terror Alert Response Center (see fact sheet explosive devices and weapons> see nuclear devices>see 1 megaton>see radius blast 4.7miles), new generation of Nuclear weapons such as 1 megaton bomb is 80 times more destructive powerful than the bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945’s killing more than 140,000 people and radioactive illness tens of thousands more. The U.S. National Terror Alert Response Center for a 1 megaton bomb of 4.7 mile blast radius detonated over downtown Toronto God forbid, would flatten and kill millions to the perimeter, and to the outer greater Toronto area, further millions would have radiations burns and illness a very tragic catastrophe, basically all living kind would end the same way as the dinosaurs. Would it not be “reckless” to remove or contain Kim Jong-il's regime to prevent a nuclear catastrophe?
5) What are North Korea’s and its neighbor’s next moves?
Do you think a carrot and stick diplomacy is the way to deal with North Korea? Please respond and answer all my questions thank you.

Reference sites
a)1998 North Korea missile over Japan and other tests in July 2006
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/5149512.stm
b) 1 megaton 80 times powerful than Hiroshima, see U.S. National Terror Alert Response  Center
http://www.nationalterroralert.com/nuclear
c)Hiroshima total losses 140,000 people 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_bombings_of_Hiroshima_and_Nagasaki
d) Aegis Ballistic Missile (Standard Missile SM-3) Defense System, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aegis_Ballistic_Missile_Defense_System
e) Canada has presently  the Standard Missile SM-2 MR on the HMCS Athabaskan, 
http://www.navy.forces.gc.ca/athabaskan/about/ship_about_e.asp?category=18


----------



## geo

IN THE EARLY 1990s, Kim Jong Il became the world's leading purchaser of Hennessy Paradis, a cognac legendary for its complexity and finesse. Paradis usually retails for a few hundred dollars a bottle, though in Kim's case bulk discounts may have applied: The North Korean leader--who, according to a former personal chef, has "an exceptionally discriminating palate"--was said to be spending $700,000 to $800,000 a year on it.

Such a liquor tab fits the sort of pathological decadence described by defectors and national leaders who have spent time with Kim. The same former chef reports being sent on shopping trips to Denmark for pork, Czechoslovakia for beer, and Uzbekistan for caviar.

A former Russian presidential envoy has described a 2001 state visit in which Kim traveled across the country in a private train stocked with crates of Bordeaux, flat-screen televisions, and a retinue of female performers. Live lobsters were flown in to await the train's chefs at points along the route.

It was therefore with a certain satisfaction that John R. Bolton, President Bush's UN ambassador, highlighted the ban on luxury imports that is part of the sanctions approved last week by the UN Security Council to punish North Korea for testing a nuclear weapon. The measure, Bolton suggested, might be "a little diet for Kim Jong Il."

As with most diets, there is some question as to how effective the ban will be. But whatever the effect, the UN resolution has managed to highlight the role Western luxury goods play in North Korea, a purportedly communist country with an impoverished, malnourished populace.

North Korea experts say that such goods aren't simply for Kim's bacchanalian lifestyle--even the most committed North Korean propagandist would be hard-pressed to claim that the Dear Liver could process several daily bottles of cognac, no matter how smooth. Instead, experts argue, expensive jewelry, fine wine, and performance automobiles are less indulgences for Kim than a currency used in a system of rewards for loyalty among the country's governing elite.

According to Bruce Cumings, a historian of Korea at the University of Chicago, North Korea is as much a patronage state as it is a police state. As an example, Cumings points to a recent mass celebration of the 80th anniversary of Kim Il Sung's Down with Imperialism Union, the predecessor to the ruling Workers' Party of Korea. Despite the country's severely straitened circumstances, "everyone that participates in that ceremony will get a wristwatch, a pair of shoes, a new television to take home, something like that. The leadership has always used consumer goods that are rare in the country to reward that sort of pageantry."

For the country's ruling class, though, the rewards are greater. On visits to North Korea, Cumings has seen not only Rolexes on government officials and fur coats on their wives, but leaders being chauffeured around in Mercedes-Benz sedans correlating to their rank: 200-model sedans for lower-level party bosses on up to the top-of-the-line S600 for the nation's leaders.

Han Park, a professor of international affairs at the University of Georgia who has visited North Korea more than 40 times, believes the relative prevalence of German luxury automobiles may be more coincidental. In his view, it simply stems from the country's "historical resentment" of major car-exporting nations like the United States, Japan, and South Korea.

There is, though, a precedent for Stalinist dictators doling out luxury cars as bonuses: Stalin himself. According to Simon Sebag Montefiore, author of the biography "Stalin: The Court of the Red Tsar," the Soviet leader used to personally decide which of the upper nomenklatura would be awarded Rolls-Royces and which would get Buicks. Record players and General Electric refrigerators were also popular prizes. "They would call these rewards the 'gift of the people,' i.e., of Stalin," Montefiore says, "and it was understood that the next day everything could be taken away and you could be nothing."

Few North Korea-watchers think Kim Jong Il's patronage powers will be severely threatened by the UN ban. His regime is already expert in the use of the black market and shell companies abroad, and the commitment of China, by far the country's largest trading partner, to enforcing the sanctions remains to be seen. At most, according to Nicholas Eberstadt, a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute and author of the forthcoming book, "The North Korean Economy," the ban will simply raise the price of such imports. "It's basically a tax on luxury goods for Kim Jong Il," he says.

And even if the ban were to be effective, everyone familiar with North Korea believes that, given the choice between more late-model Mercedes and a nuclear weapons program, the regime's preference will be clear. After all, there's nothing like a nuclear warhead to impress the neighbors.


----------



## exsemjingo

We should translate geo's post into Korean and drop pamphlets by air all over North Korea.  That would not just create instability, but help turn the populace to our side.
Then again, once a population ssubjugates it's own logic and self interest to an ooppressivepolitical ideology, there is no telling how far it's misguided loyalties might go.


----------



## Mike Baker

From CTV


> SEOUL, South Korea -- South Korea's military is observing movements at a site in North Korea where the communist country is believed to have conducted its first nuclear test, indicating possible preparations for another test, Yonhap news agency reported Saturday.
> 
> 
> The report, citing multiple unnamed military officials, said South Korea is closely monitoring movements of trucks and North Korean soldiers at the site in Punggye-ri in the country's remote northeast.
> 
> 
> "It is clear there are movements at Punggye-ri after the nuclear test," one military official was quoted as saying. "We are closely monitoring to see if these are preparations for a second nuclear test."
> 
> 
> Another official also confirmed activities at the North Korean site but said another test "is not believed to be imminent," according to Yonhap.
> 
> 
> North Korea conducted an underground nuclear test on Oct. 9, prompting the UN Security Council to impose sanctions.
> 
> 
> It was not immediately clear how the military officials first spotted the activity at the site. However, the United States and South Korea generally share intelligence information obtained through satellite imagery.
> 
> 
> Meanwhile, more unidentified South Korean government sources said they are trying to confirm whether a new facility that has been built at the site could be part of preparations for a second nuclear test, the JoongAng Ilbo newspaper reported Saturday.
> 
> 
> Defense officials could not immediately be reached for comment.
> 
> 
> The news came a day after the South's Foreign Minister and incoming U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon met with Chinese leaders to discuss sanctions against the North over its Oct. 9 underground nuclear test.
> 
> 
> Ban met with Chinese President Hu Jintao, State Councilor Tang Jiaxuan and Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing on Friday. South Korea's Foreign Ministry said they would discuss sanctions, but details of their talks were not immediately released.
> 
> 
> Ban is visiting the five permanent U.N. Security Council members following his election as secretary-general this month. He pledged to make resolving the North Korea nuclear issue a key priority on his agenda as head of the international body.
> 
> 
> The United States has been trying muster greater support for a UN Security Council resolution that calls for sanctions in response to the North's nuclear test.
> 
> 
> Seoul and Beijing have been reluctant to enforce sanctions over the Oct. 9 test for fear they might aggravate their unpredictable neighbor and destabilize the region.
> 
> 
> As the North's main aid providers and trade partners, China and South Korea's participation are considered crucial for the success of the United Nations resolution, which bans the sale of major arms to the North and calls for inspection of cargo entering and leaving the country.


They clame that they were "sorry for the test an that no more would take place." I wonder what happened?


----------



## a_majoor

The problem with sanctions is most of what we want to stop (luxury goods) would fit a small number of sea cans, while nuclear weapons and materials would fil a similar number of sea cans going out. It would not be too difficult to smuggle these items individually over the course of a year.

Better than stopping the goods, how about the people. North Korean embassies should be closed and North Korean chefs stopped at the airport when attempting to enter a country to buy luxury food items. This will not stop the trade, but make it much more difficult, and that might create an instability in the system of rewards that the regime uses to maintian loyalty in the upper echelons.


----------



## Korus

GAP, that article was from 13 Oct, 4 days after the blast. The next day the US revised their statement and said that they had found some radioactivity, and eventually (On the 16th or so?) they confirmed that it was a nuclear test..
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/6056370.stm


----------



## Korus

It's interesting, though, to see how things change over time and a news article which is valid one day is not necessarily quite so the next....

I suppose the mods can delete my previous post as it's no longer relevant.


----------



## CougarKing

The DPRK test-launches more missiles.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/asiapcf/03/28/nkorea.missile/index.html



> *Report: North Korea test-fires missiles*
> *North Korea fired short-range missiles off its western coast, reports say*
> South Korea is trying to confirm reports of the missile launches
> 
> S. Korea's presidential office said launches just part of "ordinary military training"
> 
> SEOUL, South Korea (CNN) -- North Korea fired short-range missiles off its western coast Friday, a South Korean defense source said, according to South Korea's Yonhap news agency.
> 
> The South Korean Defense Ministry and Joint Chiefs of Staff told CNN they were trying to confirm reports of the missile launches.
> 
> South Korea's presidential office dismissed reports of the missile launches as part of "ordinary military training" by the communist state.
> 
> "The government regards North Korea's missile firing as merely a part of its ordinary military training," presidential spokesman Lee Dong-kwan told Yonhap.
> 
> "The South Korean government will just continue to watch the missile-related situation carefully," he said. "We're convinced that North Korea doesn't want inter-Korean relations to deteriorate."
> 
> Washington urged caution following the reports. "The United States believes that North Korea should refrain from testing missiles," U.S. National Security Council spokesman Gordon Johndroe said.
> 
> "This kind of activity is not constructive. North Korea should focus on the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula and deliver a complete and correct declaration of all its nuclear weapons programs and nuclear proliferation activities, and to complete the agreed disablement."
> 
> The reported firings came a day after the Seoul government pulled 11 of its diplomats from an industrial park the two countries operate in North Korea.
> 
> Their departure followed comments made last week by South Korean Unification Minister Kim Ha-joong.
> 
> He said it would be hard to expand the industrial complex without North Korean progress on denuclearization.
> 
> North Korea cited the minister's remarks as a reason for demanding that the South Korean diplomats leave, Yonhap reported.


----------



## CougarKing

Is this action a genuine symbolic gesture of what really has been accomplished with these multilateral talks, or is Kim just doing this for show and has more to hide? Does anyone else here think that Bush's move to lift sanctions against North Korea may be a little bit too premature?


http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080627/ap_on_re_as/koreas_nuclear




> YONGBYON, North Korea - North Korea destroyed the most visible symbol of its nuclear weapons program Friday, blasting apart the cooling tower at its main atomic reactor in a sign of its commitment to stop making plutonium for atomic bombs.
> 
> An explosion at the base of the cylindrical structure sent the tower collapsing into debris and dust that billowed into blue skies at 5:10 p.m. local time as journalists and diplomats looked on, according to footage filmed at the site by international video news agency Associated Press Television News.
> 
> The demolition of the 60-foot-tall cooling tower at the North's main reactor complex is a response to U.S. concessions after the North delivered a declaration Thursday of its nuclear programs to be dismantled.
> 
> "This is a very important step in the disablement process and I think it puts us in a good position to move into the next phase," said Sung Kim, the U.S. State Department's top expert on the Koreas who attended the demolition.
> 
> After the tower's tumble to the ground, Kim shook hands with Ri Yong Ho, director of safeguards at North Korea's Academy of Atomic Energy Research, who was the most senior Pyongyang official present.
> 
> "The demolition of the cooling tower is proof that the six-party talks have proceeded a step further," Ri said, referring to the nuclear negotiations.
> 
> The tower destruction was not mentioned by the North's media or shown on state TV broadcasts.
> 
> State Department spokesman Tom Casey said that North Korea had agreed to principles for verifying its declaration.
> 
> "The have agreed that every question that we have about their nuclear program — plutonium, uranium, proliferation — is something they have to answer," he said. "That would mean, if there is any place we want to visit, we should be allowed to visit, any person we want to talk to, we should be allowed to."
> 
> *In the North Korean government's first reaction to the developments this week, North Korea's Foreign Ministry welcomed Washington's decision to take the country off the U.S. trade and sanctions blacklists.*
> 
> "The U.S. measure should lead to a complete and all-out withdrawal of its hostile policy toward (the North) so that the denuclearization process can proceed smoothly," the ministry said in a statement carried by the official Korean Central News Agency.
> 
> The symbolic tower explosion came just 20 months after Pyongyang shocked the world by detonating a nuclear bomb in an underground test to confirm its status as an atomic power. The nuclear blast spurred an about-face in the U.S. hard-line policy against Pyongyang, leading to the North's first steps to scale back its nuclear weapons development since the reactor became operational in 1986.
> 
> Last year, the North switched off the reactor at Yongbyon, some 60 miles north of the capital of Pyongyang, and it already has begun disabling the facility under the watch of U.S. experts so that it cannot easily be restarted.
> 
> The destruction of the cooling tower, which carries off waste heat to the atmosphere, is another step forward but not the most technically significant, because it is a simple piece of equipment that would be easy to rebuild.
> 
> Still, the demolition offers the most photogenic moment yet in the disarmament negotiations that have dragged on for more than five years and suffered repeated deadlocks and delays.
> 
> Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said the tower's destruction would mark a step toward disablement, something that has been ongoing for many months to prevent the North from making more plutonium for bombs.
> 
> "It is important to get North Korea out of the plutonium business, but that will not be the end of the story," she said in Kyoto, Japan, on the sidelines of a meeting of the Group of Eight industrialized countries.
> 
> North Korea's nuclear declaration, which was delivered six months later than the country promised and has not yet been released publicly, is said to only give the overall figure for how much plutonium was produced at Yongbyon — but no details of bombs that may have been made.
> 
> Experts believe the North has produced up to 110 pounds of weapons-grade plutonium, enough for as many as 10 nuclear bombs.
> 
> The declaration was being distributed Friday by China, the chair of the arms talks, to the other countries involved, U.S. envoy Christopher Hill said.
> 
> "We'll have to study it very carefully and then we'll have to work on verification," Hill said in Kyoto.
> 
> The declaration does not address the North's alleged uranium enrichment program or suspicions of its nuclear proliferation to other countries, such as Syria.


----------



## imjustsomeguy

If they have enough plutonium for 10 weapons, why keep the facility? Sure blow up the tower to ease sanctions...they didn't need it anyhow. I'd demo the reactor too if it meant economic aid and the lifting of embargoes on my country.

IMHO, I think the Bush administration should wait until North Korea completely disables it's nuclear facilities beyond an easy repair before lifting every sanction. 

Just my $.02

*added*  Hasn't the US and North Korea had a history of "you give me money, I halt the nuclear program..then next year I start it up again?"


----------



## Long in the tooth

I believe the item destroyed has nothing to do with a reactor or fuel processing facility.  What was destroyed was simply a water cooler for a reactor (or even a coal or gas fired generating station).  In other words, this was one big PR exercise.


----------



## George Wallace

Otto Fest said:
			
		

> I believe the item destroyed has nothing to do with a reactor or fuel processing facility.  What was destroyed was simply a water cooler for a reactor (or even a coal or gas fired generating station).  In other words, this was one big PR exercise.



So?  A critical part of a reactor is blown up and you think it is only a PR exercise.

Sure it was, but a Cooling Tower is a necessary part of a reactor.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

From the pictures of the interior I got the impression it had not been in use for awhile, a hopefully sign, but still likley more PR than intent.


----------



## armyvern

I actually watched a Christian Amanpour piece on CNN a while back detailing the visit of the New York Philharmonic to Pyongyang.

While there, she was invited to tour the Yongbyon reactor facility with her camera crew. It was very obvious in that film footage that this place hasn't been active in quite some time - 1/2 thick dust on the walls etc and all equipment removed. Her story did note that inspectors were already on ground at that time (UN & US) to verify it's dismantling, but that the US was pushing for the towers destruction as a good faith measure. Seems that the North Koreans have now complied with that good faith bit. All I can find on CNN's site is a couple of her stories detailing the visit in print (am linking to the one with some still photos of the visit - including a shot taken inside the facility in question @ pic #11).

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/asiapcf/05/07/amanpour.north.korea/index.html#cnnSTCPhoto

Edited to add:

Here is the film footage which has been uploaded onto youtube:

Amanpour: Notes from North Korea [Pt 3 of 6]

(I watched the whole thing [on TV] -- I actually quite enjoyed this report).


----------



## CougarKing

KIM JONG IL really really must be anal now.



> (CNN) -- North Korea said Tuesday it has stopped disabling its nuclear plants and will consider restoring them because the United States has not removed it from a list of states that sponsor terrorism.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> N. Korea demolished the cooling tower at its main reactor complex in Yongbyon in June.
> 
> The communist nation said it halted the dismantling of the plutonium-producing plants on August 14, the state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported.
> 
> The North "will consider soon a step to restore the nuclear facilities in (Yongbyon) to their original state," the North Korean Foreign Ministry said in a statement that KCNA carried.
> North Korea agreed to a complete dismantling of its Yongbyon nuclear complex by October. In return, U.S. President George W. Bush said he would lift some U.S. sanctions against North Korea and remove it from a State Department list of state sponsors of terrorism.
> 
> 
> 
> http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/asiapcf/08/26/north.korea.nuclear/index.html
> 
> http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080826/ts_nm/korea_north_d...fJ33GATDVTKQoXqs0NUE


----------



## OldSolduer

Yes the Dear Leader must be very "Ronry" now!

That's "Lonely"  ;D


----------



## aesop081

If anyone is surprised by this, you need a reality check.

We ( the international community "we") have encouraged them to do this little song and dance.


----------



## Sub_Guy

I almost forgot about North Korea, Lil Kim just wants to be in the headlines for a while,  Russia and those Somali Pirates were hogging all the attention.


----------



## gun runner

Does any one have an opinion? And if he is dead, what does this potentially mean to the west?


----------



## 1feral1

I am sure "it's" alive.

Sometimes its better the devil we know, then the devil we don't.

OWDU


----------



## a_majoor

If he is dead, then the potential for regional instability is staggering. The South Koreans and Chinese would have to deal with millions of starving North Koreans trying to escape, while the North Korean military might end up being the only institution able to maintain any sort of control, which might make dealing with North Korea even more difficult (especially if their leadership starts fighting amongst themselves).

South Korea might get stuck with the task of rebuilding a totally imploded economy, while the Chinese will be doing all in their power to extend their influence over the entire Korean peninsula, creating more friction in the region (trying to absorb one of the "Tiger" economies into their political sphere is probably a big mistake in my opinion).

You can go on with second and third order effects


----------



## Run away gun

No doubt there is somebody in North Korea that is being/has been groomed for leadership when Kim Jong Il kicks the bucket.


----------



## Old Sweat

According to this story in today's National Post, no one was groomed to take over the reins - or if one of my awful puns can be forgiven in this case, the reigns.

http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=784936


----------



## geo

While no one was groomed to replace him, he does have 3 sons who have their own followings within the North Korean military.

That being said, still believe that, over the next decade, North & South Korea will get back together again.


----------



## TacticalW

Let's hope that will be the case, but Kim Jong is a very unpredictable man... 

From what I've heard he might have had a seizure, and if that's the case who knows, he could be dead, he could be slowly recovering but okay or he could be a vegetable... or he could be replaced by a "clone" o.o


----------



## gun runner

I have heard too that he has several body doubles...like Hussein had. But will this only delay the inevitable(possible war between the north and south) or could this be a ploy to confuse the western nations while they cook up something for the south?


----------



## Fishbone Jones

I have a hundred more important things to worry about. 

Like if my lawn needs to be cut today or later this week.

Just sayin'.


----------



## Mike Baker

North Korea preparing to restart nuclear facility 




> PANMUNJOM, Korea - North Korea said Friday it was preparing to restart its nuclear reactor, accusing the United States of failing to fulfill its obligations under an international disarmament-for-aid agreement.
> 
> It was the first time the North has confirmed it has begun reversing what it has done so far to roll back its nuclear program, though it has warned it would do so in anger over Washington's failure to remove it from the U.S. terrorism blacklist.
> 
> "We are making thorough preparations for restoration" of the Yongbyon nuclear complex, the deputy director-general of North Korea's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Hyun Hak Bong, told reporters. He did not say when Yongbyon might begin operating again.
> 
> Hyun spoke to reporters in the border village of Panmunjom before sitting down for talks Friday with South Korean officials on sending energy aid to the North as part of the six-nation disarmament deal.
> 
> Under the landmark 2007 pact — involving the two Koreas, the U.S., China, Russia and Japan — North Korea pledged to disable its nuclear program in a step toward its eventual dismantlement in exchange for diplomatic concessions and energy aid equivalent to 1 million tons of oil.
> 
> North Korea began disabling the Yongbyon complex last year, and the process was 90 percent complete, with eight of 11 key steps carried out "perfectly and flawlessly," Hyun said.
> 
> Major progress was made in the agreement in late June when North Korea submitted a long-delayed declaration of its nuclear activities and destroyed the cooling tower at Yongbyon in a show of its commitment to denuclearization.
> 
> But the accord ran aground in mid-August when Washington refused to take North Korea off its list of states that sponsor terrorism until the North accepts a plan to verify its nuclear declaration.
> 
> North Korea responded by halting the disabling process and is now "proceeding with work to restore (Yongbyon) to its original status," Hyun told reporters.



More on the link.
-Dead


----------



## The Bread Guy

A rittle mo'....






Map of North Korea's nuclear plant in Yongbyon ©AFP - Afp Graphics

Associated Press:  "US urges NKorea not to restart nuclear reactor"


> The United States on Friday urged North Korea not to continue preparations to restart its nuclear reactor, saying the country must decide whether it wants to have a better relationship with the world or "keep themselves isolated." ....



Agence France-Presse:  "NKorea moving closer to restarting nuclear plant: US"


> North Korea has not restarted its nuclear plant at Yongbyon but is moving "closer and closer" to doing so, the US State Department said Friday.  North Korea, accusing Washington of breaking a six-country nuclear disarmament deal, said Friday it is working to restart its atomic reactor and no longer wants US concessions promised under the pact.  North Korea is moving "closer and closer to that point of operationalizing Yongbyon again," State Department spokesman Sean McCormack told reporters.  "They haven't got that point yet and we would urge them not to get to that point," he added during the daily briefing.  "They have a choice. They can go down the pathway of having different and better relationship with the world... or they can keep themselves isolated, move the process backward. So we'll see," he said.  "I don't think we're to the point yet of there having fully reversed what they have done," he said.....



Reuters:  "North Korea not yet made Yongbyon operational"


> The United States said on Friday that North Korea had not yet made its Yongbyon plant operational despite threats and urged Pyongyang to agree to a mechanism to verify its nuclear claims.  "They have not got to that point yet. We would urge them not to get to that point," said State Department spokesman Sean McCormack when asked about North Korea's statement that it was working on starting its Soviet-era nuclear Yongbyon plant.  "They continue to move to the right, to get closer and closer to that point where they are operationalising Yongbyon again," he added....



And from Secretary of State Rice, in an op-ed in the 26 Jun 08 _Wall Street Journal_


> ....  Considering North Korea's track record, verification is essential, but still it must be asked: What if North Korea cheats? The answer is simple: *We will hold North Korea accountable. We will reimpose any applicable sanctions that we have waived – plus add new ones.* And because North Korea would be violating an agreement not only with us, but also with all of its neighbors, those countries would take appropriate measures as well ....


----------



## OldSolduer

How about the .50 cal solution.....sorry I'm in a rotten mood.


----------



## dangerboy

OldSolduer said:
			
		

> How about the .50 cal solution.....sorry I'm in a rotten mood.



OldSolduer  get with the times it is now the 25mm solution.


----------



## OldSolduer

Sounds good to me dangerboy.


----------



## a_majoor

The solutions range from messy and dangerous to FUBAR. What is the price we are willing to pay for the "just" messy and dangerous? Read Robert Kaplan's "http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200610/kaplan-koreaWhen North Korea Falls" to see where we are at.


----------



## rtangri

N U K E EM ! I know Im gonna get hell for this, but god damnit this is so repetetive


----------



## CougarKing

Meanwhile..back in the DPRK /North Korea:

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/asiapcf/09/24/nkorea.nuclear.plant/index.html




> *North Korean nuclear plant seals removed*
> Story Highlights
> IAEA: N. Korea nuclear plant seals have been removed
> 
> U.N. nuclear watchdog will no longer have access to the plant
> 
> N. Korea had agreed to abandon its atomic weapons program for energy aid
> (CNN) -- North Korea has made another move toward possibly restarting its suspended nuclear program, the U.N. nuclear agency reports.
> 
> *At the reclusive nation's request, the International Atomic Energy Agency has removed surveillance equipment and seals from the Yongbyon nuclear facility, agency spokeswoman Melissa Fleming said.*
> 
> *The move clears the way for North Korea to reintroduce nuclear material to the facility. The North has told the IAEA that it will do that in a week or so.
> 
> The U.N. nuclear watchdog will no longer have access at Yongbyon and will not be able to monitor any activities at the nuclear reprocessing facility.
> 
> Mohamed ElBaradei, director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said Monday that agency inspectors had observed that "some equipment previously removed by (North Korea) during the disablement process has been brought back."*
> 
> ElBaradei said then that he was hopeful that conditions could be developed for North Korea "to return to the Non-Proliferation Treaty at the earliest possible date and for the resumption by the agency of comprehensive safeguards."
> 
> Last week, a South Korean news agency reported that North Korea was restoring a reactor at Yongbyon nuclear complex and no longer wanted to be removed from a U.S. list of countries that sponsor terrorism.
> 
> *Hyun Hak-Bong, a chief North Korean negotiator at the six-nation talks aimed at halting the country's nuclear program, told reporters his country was "thoroughly preparing to restart" the reactor and that reporters would "know soon" when his country would do that, the Yonhap news agency said.*
> 
> But a senior U.S. diplomat has said the announcement could simply be a bargaining ploy in the long-running negotiations. The U.S. had seen no indications North Korea was actually rebuilding its reactor, the diplomat said.
> 
> The U.S. envoy to North Korea addressed the fresh standoff with reporters Monday, saying the U.S. was still trying to strike a deal with Pyongyang to come clean on its nuclear claims.
> 
> "The six-party process has had its difficult moments and we are certainly experiencing one now," Assistant Secretary of State Chris Hill told reporters.
> 
> Although North Korea has threatened to restart its nuclear reactor at Yongbyon, "We don't expect any dramatic developments in the next few days," he said.
> 
> Hill said U.S. officials had the impression North Korea wanted to reach agreement with Bush administration before it left office.
> 
> Earlier, a senior State Department official told CNN that in recent weeks the North Koreans had taken a "harder-line stance toward the six-party talks."
> 
> U.S. intelligence officials told CNN last week that North Korean leader Kim Jong Il has been suffering serious health problems, and may have had a stroke.
> 
> North Korea had agreed to disable the Yongbyon nuclear complex by October in exchange for a pledge from the U.S. to lift some sanctions and remove North Korea from a list of countries that sponsor terrorism.



And the blackmail cycle has begun again. :


----------



## OldSolduer

The "Dear Leader" should become the "Dear Departed Leader". 
Let's send Mr. Layton and Dawn Black to negotiate.


----------



## a_majoor

I see I messed up the link When North Korea Falls.

Much of what the KFR ("Kim Family Regime") does is not directed at the United States at all, but rather designed to provoke some sort of positive response from  Bejing, the local superpower. Attempting to get the United States to the table for a "one on one" is just one of the ways the KFR inflates their standing in the region and thus causes Beijing to recalculate.



> Kim Jong Il’s compulsion to demonstrate his missile prowess is a sign of his weakness. Contrary to popular perception in the United States, Kim doesn’t stay up at night worrying about what the Americans might do to him; it’s not North Korea’s weakness relative to the United States that preoccupies him. Rather, if he does stay up late worrying, it’s about China. *He knows the Chinese have always had a greater interest in North Korea’s geography—with its additional outlets to the sea close to Russia—than they have in the long-term survival of his regime.* (Like us, even as they want the regime to survive, the Chinese have plans for the northern half of the Korean peninsula that do not include the “Dear Leader.”) One of Kim’s main goals in so aggressively displaying North Korea’s missile capacity is to compel the United States to deal directly with him, thereby making his otherwise weakening state seem stronger. And the stronger Pyongyang appears to be, the better off it is in its crucial dealings with Beijing, which are what really matter to Kim.



This is not to say that South Korea, Japan, Taiwan or Russia should just shrug their shoulders and ignore the goings on in North Korea, but rather they (and we) need to avoid knee jerk reactions since that is probably what the KFR is aiming for. The real scary part is as the KFR becomes more brittle and unstable, they will be less and less able to deal with internal or external problems:



> In other divided countries of the twentieth century—Vietnam, Germany, Yemen—the forces of unity ultimately triumphed. But history suggests that unification does not happen through a calibrated political process in which the interests of all sides are respected.* Rather, it tends to happen through a cataclysm of events that, piles of white papers and war-gaming exercises notwithstanding, catches experts by surprise*.



Cutting the western lifeline to the KFR will make their nuclear program much more costly in economic terms (if the KFR has to divert food and energy resources away from their military there will be trouble), although Beijing is actually what keeps them afloat. Maybe _just_ cutting our losses will shift the economic burden far enough on China to make them reconsider what they are doing.


----------



## CougarKing

I guess this answers this question, unless, he has doubles like Saddam had. http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081004/ap_on_re_as/as_nkorea_kim_jong_il



> Report: NKorean leader watches soccer game
> By JEAN H. LEE, Associated Press Writer
> 1 hour, 38 minutes ago
> 
> SEOUL, South Korea - *North Korean leader Kim Jong Il watched a university soccer game, a state-run news agency said from Pyongyang on Saturday, reporting on the leader's first public appearance in nearly two months. *
> 
> Kim and other political leaders watched the game held to mark the 62nd anniversary of the founding of the university named after his late father, North Korea founder Kim Il Sung, the Korean Central News Agency report said.
> 
> The university's 62nd anniversary was Oct. 1 but the report did not say when or where the game was held. It also did not say whether Kim, who is believed to have suffered a stroke in August, attended the game in person. There was no mention of his health.
> 
> The 66-year-old leader had not been seen in public since mid-August, missing two key occasions — the 60th anniversary of the founding of North Korea and Korean Thanksgiving — amid mounting speculation about his health.
> 
> U.S. and South Korean officials said last month that Kim, believed to have diabetes and other chronic ailments, suffered a stroke, citing unidentified sources. North Korean officials, however, steadfastly denied he was ill.
> 
> Information about North Korea, one of the world's most reclusive nations, can be close to impossible to confirm.
> 
> In Seoul, Unification Ministry spokesman Kim Ho-nyeon said late Saturday that he was aware of the KCNA report but had no additional information.
> 
> South Korean officials had said Kim was believed to have improved in recent weeks.
> 
> Kim's extended absence from the public eye is not his first, but it is believed to be his longest since assuming leadership of communist North Korea after his father's death in 1994.
> 
> KCNA's last mention of Kim making a public appearance was on Aug. 14 — around the time Pyongyang stopped disabling its Yongbyon nuclear reprocessing plant and began reassembling the facility in violation of a multilateral disarmament-for-aid pact.
> 
> U.S. nuclear envoy Christopher Hill went to North Korea earlier in the week to try salvaging the agreement, worked out in February 2007 by the two Koreas, Japan, Russia, China and the U.S. in a bid to dismantle the nation's nuclear program.
> 
> Hill, who returned to Seoul on Friday, made no mention of Kim.
> 
> While the news agency has since reported that Kim sent birthday greetings to Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and congratulations to Beijing on a key Chinese anniversary, there had been no mention of him appearing in public until Saturday.
> 
> The report said Kim congratulated the two soccer teams from Kim Il Sung University and the Pyongyang University of Railways after the game.
> 
> Kim praised the student athletes, saying: "The revolutionary and militant students in our country are good at art and sporting activities while devoting all their wisdom and enthusiasm to the study of science for the country and the people," KCNA said.
> 
> ___
> 
> Associated Press Writer Jae-soon Chang contributed to this report.


----------



## tomahawk6

Probably a double.


----------



## CougarKing

The Yellow Sea- which the PRC considers its own territory as well in addition to the East and South China Seas- was the scene of today's latest saber-rattling event from the DPRK. The fact that it was aimed at the Yellow Sea must mean something- is it a major falling out between Pyongyang and Beijing? Or just another gesture to the West that they are still alive and kicking?



> *NKorea reportedly fires missile into Yellow Sea*
> 
> 59 minutes ago
> 
> http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5g5bCbd3G8qFoX7H4TvQbUWvBQ08QD93LRTGO0
> 
> TOKYO (AP) — *North Korea has fired a short-range missile into the Yellow Sea, media reports said Tuesday.
> 
> Japanese public broadcaster NHK quoted officials as saying Tokyo was trying to verify a report from a third country that the communist nation fired a missile. NHK said the firing did not involve a ballistic missile.*
> 
> South Korea's Yonhap news agency said two missiles were fired Monday. The Japanese daily Mainichi carried a similar report and said it was a routine military exercise.
> 
> Japanese officials said they could not confirm the media reports.
> 
> In Washington, the Pentagon declined to confirm or deny whether any missile firing had been detected.
> 
> "We cannot provide information regarding specific intelligence," said Marine Maj. Stewart Upton, a Defense Department spokesman. "However, our concerns about missile activities in North Korea are long-standing and well documented.
> 
> "North Korea's development, deployment and proliferation of missiles and missile-related materials, equipment and technology pose a threat to the region and the world," Upton said.
> 
> *North Korea often test-fires short-range missiles, including two in March. The country has been under a self-imposed moratorium on long-range missile tests.*
> 
> *North Korea, which conducted an underground nuclear test in 2006, stopped disabling its nuclear facilities in August, around the time reports say leader Kim Jong Il suffered a stroke. North Korea denies that Kim is ill.*


----------



## Celticgirl

CougarDaddy said:
			
		

> The Yellow Sea- which the PRC considers its own territory as well in addition to the East and South China Seas- was the scene of today's latest saber-rattling event from the DPRK. the fact that was it was aimed at the Yellow Sea must mjean something- is it a major falling out between Pyongyang and Beijing? Or just another gesture to the West that they are still alive and kicking?



I'd say it's more likely that the PRC gave consent to President Kim to test missiles in its waters. As for it being a message or "gesture" to the West...perhaps...or it could just be that Kim thinks such activity will go undetected by the West (U.S. in particular). All speculation, of course. No one knows what Kim is thinking or planning, and that is the truly scary thing about it.


----------



## Long Sword

NK is trying to pressure the West for more aid (again). It's been their standard operating procedure for years, and with reactivating the Yongbyon nuclear complex, this is just an extension of that: reactivate their nuclear facilities, and if the West doesn't immediately capitulate, remind us that they have the capabilities to deliver nuclear material. If talks don't give them the aid they want, they'll probably have another test. 

Then they eventually get something and we start the whole process all over again!


----------



## CougarKing

Yawn. So what's new?  :boring:



> *North Korea Threatens to Turn South Korea Into 'Debris'*
> 
> Tuesday, October 28, 2008
> 
> http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,444369,00.html
> 
> SEOUL, South Korea — * North Korea's military warned Tuesday it would attack South Korea and turn it into "debris," in Pyongyang's latest response to what it says are confrontational activities by Seoul against the communist country.
> 
> The threat comes a day after military officers from the two Koreas held brief talks at the heavily fortified border, their second official contact since the North broke off inter-Korean relations in February.
> 
> The North threatened to cut off all ties if the "confrontational racket" continues, citing a South Korean general's recent threats to launch a pre-emptive strike against its nuclear sites and the refusal of civic activists in the South to heed Pyongyang's demands to cease distribution of propaganda leaflets critical of its leadership.*
> 
> "The puppet authorities had better remember that the advanced pre-emptive strike of our own style will reduce everything opposed to the nation and reunification to debris, not just setting them on fire," the North's military said in a statement carried by the state-run Korean Central News Agency.
> 
> Relations between the two Koreas have been tense since South Korean President Lee Myung-bak's administration took office earlier this year pledging to get tough with Pyongyang.
> 
> Earlier this month, Gen. Kim Tae-young, chairman of South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff, told a parliamentary committee that his military was prepared to attack suspected nuclear sites in North Korea if the communist country attempts to use its atomic weapons on the South.
> 
> North Korea has demanded that South Korea stop activists from sending balloons carrying leaflets critical of the communist regime across the border, saying the flyers violate a 2004 inter-Korean accord banning propaganda warfare.
> 
> The South Korean government has stopped official propaganda but says it cannot prohibit activists from sending the leaflets, citing freedom of speech.
> 
> Defying Pyongyang's demands, South Korean activists on Monday sent helium balloons carrying 100,000 leaflets to the North. Some noted Kim's reported health troubles and called for the North Korean people to rise up against the authoritarian leader.
> 
> The North said it also was offended by recent comments by South Korean Defense Minister Lee Sang-hee about leader Kim Jong Il's health.
> 
> South Korean Defense Minister Lee Sang-hee told a news conference in Washington earlier this month that both the U.S. and South Korea believed Kim Jong Il remained in control, adding: "If we show him too much attention, then we might spoil him."
> 
> *U.S. and South Korean officials say Kim suffered a stroke and underwent brain surgery in recent months, but the North has denied there is anything wrong with the 66-year-old leader.*
> 
> The two countries remain technically at war because the 1950-53 Korean War ended with an armistice, not a peace treaty. The peninsula is divided by one of the world's most heavily fortified borders.


----------



## CougarKing

If that isn't a doctored photo I'm eating my shirt.







http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article5101905.ece



> It was intended to be the photograph that settled the matter once and for all — three months after vanishing from public view, and after reports that he had undergone brain surgery following a stroke, the North Korean leader, Kim Jong Il, was alive and well.
> 
> But a close look reveals something shady around the ankles of the world’s last Cold War dictator.
> 
> While the legs of his soldiers cast a shadow at a sharp angle, the shadow of the “Dear Leader” is dead straight. In addition, there is a black line running horizontally behind the soldiers’ legs, but it mysteriously disappears behind Mr Kim.
> 
> Rather than a genuine photograph, there were growing suspicions last night that the image released by the North Korean authorities may possibly be the result of digital trickery. Yesterday the state-controlled North Korean media announced that Mr Kim had attended a musical performance at which he “waved back to the cheering performers and congratulated them on their presentation”. The photographs were first presented the day before — and together they eroded the consensus among North Korea watchers that the leader of the world’s most unpredictable nuclear power had suffered a serious health problem over the past few months.
> 
> The pictures show Mr Kim posing for a group photograph with a military unit, wearing a light coloured winter coat, sunglasses and sporting his familiar pompadour. On Sunday, in similarly undated photographs, he was shown apparently attending a football match.
> 
> “He expressed expectation and conviction that all the artistes would conduct dynamic revolutionary art activities in the future too, to powerfully encourage the army and people in the drive for accomplishing the cause of building a great prosperous powerful nation,” said yesterday’s report on KCNA.
> 
> Mr Kim ceased making public appearances in mid-August but it was only on September 9 that his absence from view became a matter of pressing concern. That was the 60th anniversary of the North Korean state, a day of almost sacred significance, when parades and celebrations were held all over the country. Despite attending the 50th and 55th anniversaries, Mr Kim failed to appear.
> 
> There was speculation that he was ill or had even died — an alarming possibility in a country with a million-strong army, nuclear weapons technology, a hungry population and no formal system of succession. The head of the South Korea spy agency, Kim Sung Ho, publicly confirmed media reports from unnamed US intelligence sources that Mr Kim had suffered a stroke and been treated by foreign doctors.
> 
> “Although he is not in a state to walk around, he is conscious,” he told South Korean MPs. “We understand that he can control the situation and he is not in an unstable condition.”
> 
> If the recent photographs are genuine, then he has made a remarkable recovery — or reports of his indisposition have been greatly exaggerated. It is a big if — and there has been much poring over other images for signs of fraud or fakery. Pictures released last month, for example, were dismissed because the state of the foliage in the background suggested that they had been taken in summer — probably before the alleged stroke.
> 
> In the photographs at the football match Mr Kim is not making great use of his left arm, leading to speculation that he was suffering partial paralysis. In the latest pictures of the military, he is seen to be clapping and raising both hands.
> 
> North Korea analysts suggested that the release of the news was timed deliberately to coincide with the election of Barack Obama. “He’s sending a message to the US,” says Moon Chung In, a professor at Seoul’s Yonsei University, who has twice met Mr Kim in Pyongyang. “They’re saying our leader is alive and well, and we’re ready to talk.”sity, who has twice net Mr Kim in Pyongyang. “They’re saying our leader is alive and well, and we’re ready to talk.”


----------



## old medic

http://www.asahi.com/english/Herald-asahi/TKY200811250066.html

All eyes on Obama in dealing with North
THE ASAHI SHIMBUN



> LIMA--With six-party talks to denuclearize North Korea set to resume on Dec. 8 after a five-month hiatus, Japanese officials are keeping a close eye on U.S. President-elect Barack Obama's position on key issues.
> 
> It remains to be seen just how much consideration the incoming Obama administration will give to the thorny question of the North's abduction of Japanese nationals, officials said.
> 
> The talks also involve South Korea, Russia and China. Tokyo has refused to provide energy assistance to the reclusive North unless progress is made toward a resolution of the abduction issue.
> 
> On the agenda at the chief delegates' meeting, the first since July, is a written agreement on ways to verify the disabling of the North's nuclear program, based on verbal agreements between Washington and Pyongyang.
> 
> Pyongyang will likely accept the resumption, which outgoing U.S. President George W. Bush actively pushed during his meetings with leaders of other participants on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum here, sources said.
> 
> At a meeting with Prime Minister Taro Aso on Saturday, Bush was quoted as saying that he understood the importance of the abduction issue to Japan, and that he would urge his successor to work toward a resolution.
> 
> By arranging a resumption of the talks, Bush is hoping to score a diplomatic achievement before he leaves office in January.
> 
> Nevertheless, Bush did not conceal his distrust of the North in a recent interview with TV Asahi, warning Pyongyang against a breach of the agreement.
> 
> Japanese officials also are concerned that Obama may go a step further, and seek a more active dialogue with Pyongyang, which could overshadow Japan's stance.
> 
> A top Foreign Ministry official also expressed concern that a change of government would lead to a change of negotiators, which could leave verbal promises made by the North hanging.
> 
> South Korea, whose relations with the North have chilled since President Lee Myung Bak took office in February, is also cautiously watching how Obama will deal with the issue.
> 
> Meanwhile, the six-party talks due next month could be stalled again if Pyongyang adamantly resists having samples of nuclear materials taken out to check as part of the verification process.(IHT/Asahi: November 25,2008)


----------



## tomahawk6

A previously unknown 3d son of Kim Jong Il has become a player,he is 30 something and is a pretty senior officer.

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/2008/12/02/Unknown_Kim_Jong_Il_son_emerges/UPI-62371228238381/

TOKYO, Dec. 2 (UPI) -- A previously unknown third son of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il has emerged as a contender for power in Pyongyang, an analyst says. 

The son, whose name isn't known, occupies a powerful position in the North Korean army and could have the backing of the military if there is a power struggle in Pyongyang following the death of the 66-year-old Kim Jong Il, The Daily Telegraph reported Tuesday.

Toshimitsu Shigemura, a professor of international relations at Tokyo's Waseda University and an expert on North Korean affairs, told the newspaper that the third son, believed to be his 30s, joins Kim's eldest son, Kim Jong Nam, and the youngest, 28-year-old Kim Jong Chol, as possible successors to "the Dear Leader." 

Shigemura told the Telegraph his sources indicate Kim Jong Il has suffered one and possibly two debilitating strokes and has only months to live. North Korea has downplayed previous reports of Kim's supposed ill health.

Kim Jong Chol is believed to have his father's blessing to succeed him. But Pyongyang's unofficial spokesman, U.S.-North Korea Peace Executive Director Kim Myong Chol, told the newspaper there is no power struggle going on, adding that when the time comes, the most appropriate person will be chosen by the Communist Party.


----------



## old medic

http://www.asahi.com/english/Herald-asahi/TKY200812040057.html

Pyongyang must agree in writing
THE ASAHI SHIMBUN
2008/12/4



> Tokyo, Washington and Seoul agreed Wednesday in talks on North Korea's nuclear programs that Pyongyang must offer written assurances on inspection methods.
> 
> The representatives to six-party talks agreed that Pyongyang must state in writing that it will allow inspectors to take samples from its nuclear facilities.
> 
> The meeting at the Foreign Ministry in Tokyo confirmed the three countries will work together to deal with foot-dragging by Pyongyang.
> 
> Akitaka Saiki, chief of the Foreign Ministry's Asian and Oceanian Affairs Bureau, represented Japan. He was joined by his U.S. and South Korean counterparts, Christopher Hill and Kim Sook.
> 
> The three will make their stand clear at the six-party talks resuming Monday in Beijing.(IHT/Asahi: December 4,2008)


----------



## old medic

North Korea vows to exclude Japan from nuclear talks
6 Dec 2008
Copy at:
http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20081206/nuclear_talks_081206/20081206?hub=World

The Associated Press



> SEOUL, South Korea -- North Korea vowed Saturday to exclude Japan from talks aimed at ending the North's nuclear programs, in apparent retaliation for Tokyo's refusal to contribute to an economic aid package for the communist regime.
> 
> The comments carried by the country's official Korean Central News Agency came as negotiators prepared to meet Monday in Beijing. The six-nation talks have stalled over how to verify North Korea's accounting of its nuclear programs.
> 
> "We will neither treat Japan as a party to the talks nor deal with it even if it impudently appears in the conference room," the agency quoted an unidentified North Korean Foreign Ministry spokesperson as saying.
> 
> North Korea has issued similar warnings to Japan in the past, but Tokyo has continued to attend the negotiations.
> 
> Officials at Japan's Foreign Ministry could not be reached for comment Saturday. Top South Korean nuclear envoy Kim Sook told The Associated Press that the talks should include all six nations. He declined to elaborate.
> 
> North Korea agreed last year to disable its nuclear reactor in exchange for aid. But Japan has refused to join four other countries -- China, Russia, South Korea and the United States -- in providing the aid until North Korea addresses the kidnapping of more than a dozen Japanese in the 1970s and '80s.
> 
> U.S. nuclear envoy Christopher Hill has said he expects the upcoming talks to be difficult and indicated the meetings will focus on working out a detailed plan for verifying the North's nuclear programs.
> 
> "We need a situation where when we begin the verification there are no surprises," Hill told reporters after arriving in Seoul on Saturday for talks with his counterpart, Kim Sook.
> 
> Hill said he would speak with Kim later in the day about providing fuel aid to the North. He leaves Sunday for Beijing, where he plans to hold a series of meetings with envoys from South Korea, China, Japan and Russia.
> 
> Though it agreed to disarm, North Korea has denied that it ever said it would allow inspectors to take samples from its nuclear complex -- a key process to verify its accounting of past nuclear activities.
> 
> Hill held two days of talks with North Korean Vice Foreign Minister Kim Kye Gwan in Singapore earlier this week but appeared to have failed to make any significant progress on the verification issue.
> 
> In 2002, North Korea acknowledged having kidnapped 13 Japanese citizens and allowed five to return home, saying the remaining eight had died. Japan, however, has demanded proof of the deaths and a probe into additional suspected kidnapping cases -- an emotional issue that has slowed progress in the nuclear talks.
> 
> Japan and North Korea struck a breakthrough deal in June under which North Korea pledged to finally resolve the abductions of Japanese citizens. But no major progress has been made since then.
> 
> "We did have a discussion about the need for (North Korea) to do more to meet Japanese concerns, especially on the abduction matter," Hill said.
> 
> Japan "has neither justification nor qualification to participate in the talks. On the contrary, it only lays a hurdle in the way of achieving the common goal," KCNA quoted the North Korean Foreign Ministry spokesman as saying.
> 
> Other countries beside the six parties have expressed willingness to give economic aid to North Korea in place of Japan, the official said, without elaborating.


----------



## old medic

South Korea denies involvement in alleged Kim plot
By Hyung-Jin Kim, THE ASSOCIATED PRESS



> SEOUL, South Korea - South Korea denied North Korea's claim it hired an agent to track its leader Kim Jong Il in what the North suggested was an assassination plot.
> 
> The North's Ministry of State Security made the claims late Thursday, saying it recently arrested an agent it alleged was trained by the South to gather information about Kim's movements.
> 
> The sensational allegation came amid a serious worsening of relations between the divided Koreas, as well as intense speculation about Kim's health since he was reported to have had a stroke and brain surgery in August.
> 
> "The (South's) organization sent him speech and acoustic sensing and pursuit devices for tracking the movement of the top leader and even violent poison in the end," the North Korean ministry said in a statement, carried by the Korean Central News Agency.
> 
> It said the "terrorist mission" was ordered by a South Korean intelligence organization "to do harm to the top leader."
> 
> South Korea's National Intelligence Service flatly denied the North's accusations.
> 
> "This has nothing to do with us," said an agency official on condition of anonymity, citing department policy.
> 
> He said the comment represents South Korea's official position on the issue.
> 
> The North's statement did not mention Kim Jong Il by name but South Korean Unification Ministry spokesman Kim Ho-nyeon said the North's state media has used such wording before in reference to him.
> 
> Kim of the Unification Ministry, which handles relations with the North, said he was in no position to confirm the report.
> 
> Tensions on the Korean peninsula have run high since the pro-U.S., conservative government of President Lee Myung-bak took office in Seoul in February with a pledge to take a tough line on the North.
> 
> Ties worsened earlier this month after the North restricted traffic at the countries' border, expelled some South Koreans from a joint industrial zone and suspended a tour program to the ancient North Korean city Kaesong.
> 
> The North's statement also said authorities recently arrested unspecified agents who tried to gather soil, water, leaves and dust in the country's major munitions industrial area to gather information on its nuclear program.
> 
> Earlier this month, international talks on the North's nuclear development ended in a stalemate over its refusal to put into writing any commitments on inspecting its past atomic activities.
> 
> Though it was impossible to verify the North's espionage claims, the divided states - which fought the 1950-53 Korean War - are known to actively spy on each other and have carried out plots to assassinate each other's leaders in the past.
> 
> South Korean experts said it was rare for North Korea to issue a statement on an alleged assassination attempt and were divided over the claim's authenticity.
> 
> Yoo Ho-yeol, an expert on the North at Korea University, said it appeared to be aimed at justifying the North's recent rhetoric and actions against the South, adding it was highly unlikely Seoul would have carried out such a plot.
> 
> Koh Yu-hwan, a professor at Dongguk University, also thought the South was likely not behind a plot.
> 
> "I think such an attempt was made though I'm not sure whether that was committed by the South," he said.
> 
> South Korea trained a group of ex-convicts to kill Kim Il Sung - Kim Jong Il's father and North Korea's founder. But in 1971 the plot was aborted and the commando forces killed their trainers, fought their way into Seoul and blew themselves up.
> 
> South Korean security forces in 1968 repelled an attack by North Korean commando troops near the residence of then-South Korean president Park Chung-hee.
> 
> North Korea has denied the 66-year-old Kim was ever ill, recently churning out reports and photographs depicting him as healthy and active. KCNA reported Thursday that Kim inspected a machine plant - the latest dispatch on his public appearances. The report, however, did not say when he made the visit.


----------



## CougarKing

So he's alive and still constipated.  He didn't die from some STD from one of his Swedish prostitutes. : 

(btw, it's up to the mods if they want to merge this with the North Korea superthread)



> Agence France-Presse - 12/19/2008 2:46 AM GMT
> *Kim Jong-Il alive and in control: US Pacific commander*
> Reclusive North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il is alive and in control of his country despite reports that he is ailing, the commander of the US Pacific command said.
> 
> "He's alive and he remains in control of the North Korean government," Admiral Timothy Keating told a press conference, adding he had no specific details about the 66-year-old North Korean leader's medical condition.
> 
> "I think he's relatively in control of his faculties," Keating said.
> 
> Since reports began circulating in September that Kim had suffered a severe medical setback, possibly a stroke, Pyongyang media have reported numerous trips by the leader and released dozens of undated photographs of him.
> 
> Kim's health is the subject of intense interest since he has not publicly nominated any successor and has a history of diabetes and heart disease.
> 
> He was last seen in public in August, but it was not until September 9 when he failed to appear at military parade for the communist regime's 60th anniversary that a flurry of reports of his ill health began.
> 
> US and South Korean intelligence believe he suffered a serious health crisis in mid-August, and South Korean officials have said he underwent brain surgery but was recovering.
> 
> Japan's Prime Minister Taro Aso said in late October that Kim was probably in hospital but still capable of making decisions.
> 
> The Tokyo Broadcasting System, citing a US intelligence source, reported November 9 that Kim had a second stroke in late October, affecting his speech and causing him difficulty moving his left hand and leg.
> 
> The North Korean government, which vehemently denies the reports of Kim's illness, released photographs Wednesday of Kim touring a library in the city of Kanggye in the northern province of Kagang.
> 
> He is shown in a fur cap and heavy winter coat, watching people use computers at the library.
> 
> Earlier, undated photographs have shown him visiting military units and watching a football match, appearing in good health with a full head of hair. In one set of photographs he was shown clapping his hands.
> 
> But the authenticity of the photographs have been viewed with skepticism outside of North Korea, keeping doubts alive about Kim's condition and his degree of control over the country.
> 
> The State Department appeared perplexed when it noted that reports of Kim's ill health coincided with a toughening in the North Korean position towards six-country negotiations for its nuclear disarmament.
> 
> In a television interview on September 23, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice figuratively threw up her hands when asked whether his reported poor health was hurting the negotiations.
> 
> "Something is going on in North Korea. I don't think any of us know precisely what. We are reading all of the reports that you've talked about," Rice said.
> 
> Christopher Hill, her chief negotiator with North Korea, acknowledged a day earlier that the troubles in the negotiations may be linked to intelligence leaks that Kim had suffered a stroke.
> 
> "It's hard to tell," Hill said.


----------



## DBA

CougarDaddy said:
			
		

> If that isn't a doctored photo I'm eating my shirt.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article5101905.ece



The people to the immediate left and right have heels together and pants that widen at the thighs. He has legs apart and straight pants. The second person to his right with straight pants and heels together has a fairly straight shadow. The missing stripe can actually be seen in other photographs and is just a feature of the center part of the stage. The distance each is standing away from the stage also changes the shadow. Looks ok to me, or at least the V and ll shadows aren't indicators of a cut and paste job.


----------



## CougarKing

Greatttt...so in 40 years if the DPRK is still around, we're gonna have another spoiled brat at the helm of this pariah state.  :



> *Report: NKorea's Kim taps 3rd son as successor*
> 
> SEOUL, South Korea – North Korean leader Kim Jong Il has named his youngest son to succeed him as head of the Stalinist nation, a South Korean news agency report said Thursday.
> 
> But another report said his eldest son was poised to step in as a figurehead, reflecting uncertainty over who will succeed Kim, who turns 67 next month.
> 
> Rumors have swirled for years that Kim would nominate one of his three sons as a successor, following the tradition begun when he inherited the leadership from his father, North Korea's founder Kim Il Sung.
> 
> Reports that Kim Jong Il suffered a stroke in mid-August heightened speculation about a successor.
> 
> Kim will hand leadership over to Swiss-educated Kim Jong Un, who is in his mid-20s, South Korea's Yonhap news agency said, citing an unidentified intelligence source. The powerful Workers' Party was informed about a week ago, the report said.
> 
> Jong Un was born to Kim Jong Il's late wife Ko Yong Hi. Ko had another son, Kim Jong Chol, but the father reportedly doesn't favor the middle son as a possible leader.
> 
> The National Intelligence Service, Seoul's top spy agency, said it could not confirm the report.
> 
> Cheong Seong-chang, a North Korea specialist at the independent Sejong Institute, said the reported choice of Jong Un seemed to be a feasible scenario.
> 
> "Jong Un has leadership (qualities) and a desire to grab power," Cheong told The Associated Press, adding that he thought he was the most qualified of the three sons to lead North Korea at a difficult time.
> 
> Japan's Yomiuri newspaper, however, reported earlier in the day on its Web site that Kim's eldest son, Kim Jong Nam, is expected to serve as a nominal head of state, citing unnamed U.S. intelligence sources.
> 
> Kim Jong Nam, 38, had long been considered the favorite to succeed his father — until he was caught trying to enter Japan on a fake passport in 2001, reportedly telling Japanese officials he wanted to visit Tokyo Disneyland.
> 
> His mother is the late actress Sung Hae Rim.
> 
> Yomiuri said Jang Song Thaek, Kim Jong Il's brother-in-law, has been assigned to look after the eldest son and is playing a central role in building a collective leadership system to back him up.
> 
> Kim Jong Il took over as leader when his father died in 1994 in communism's first hereditary power succession and rules the country with absolute authority.
> 
> North Korea has denied that its leader was ever ill, and since early October has sent a steady stream of photos depicting an active and healthy Kim making visits to farms, factories and military units. The photos and reports typically are undated, and South Korean officials say they cannot confirm the visits.
> 
> AP


----------



## old medic

N. Korea says it has 'weaponized' its plutonium stocks
A U.S. scholar who met with officials in North Korea says the amount is sufficient to build four or five nuclear warheads. Meanwhile, its army issues a new threat against South Korea.
By Barbara Demick
January 18, 2009
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-korea-nuclear18-2009jan18,0,7624184.story



> Reporting from Beijing -- North Korean officials claim they have "weaponized" their stockpile of plutonium, a U.S. scholar said Saturday, in a development that could badly complicate talks to end the regime's nuclear weapons program.
> 
> Selig Harrison, speaking to reporters after he arrived in Beijing from Pyongyang, the North Korean capital, said that the North Koreans had considerably hardened their negotiating positions and that the prospects for President-elect Barack Obama to make a breakthrough in talks were "gloomy."
> 
> North Korea's belligerent mood was underscored by a fresh threat Saturday against South Korea.
> 
> A North Korean army spokesman warned in a statement delivered over the official media that South Korean President Lee Myung-bak and his "puppet military war hawks" had "driven our revolutionary armed forces to take a strong step to wipe them out."
> 
> The North's blustery propaganda machine issues so many threats that they are normally shrugged off, but this one was unusual in that it came directly from the army, which does not usually issue statements.
> 
> Harrison believes that hard-liners within the North Korean military have strengthened their hand recently because of the poor health of leader Kim Jong Il. The 67-year-old is reported to be recovering from a stroke suffered last summer.
> 
> "He is now making the key decisions, but he is not dealing on a day-to-day basis with details," Harrison said. "This helps to explain the shift to a much harder line on nuclear negotiations."
> 
> Harrison is a former journalist who has sometimes been used by Pyongyang to relay messages to Washington. He has traveled frequently to North Korea since 1972 and is one of the few who has interviewed Kim Il Sung, the country's late founder and father of the current leader.
> 
> Among the officials Harrison met with over four days in Pyongyang were Li Gun, a senior Foreign Ministry official, and Ri Chan-bok, a general and spokesman for the military.
> 
> The North Koreans told him that they had already "weaponized" their stockpile of 67.8 pounds of plutonium. The amount of plutonium is sufficient to build four or five nuclear warheads to be mounted on missiles.
> 
> In October, North Korea had disclosed the amount of plutonium in its stockpile, but it had been hoped that the plutonium had not yet been developed into weapons and therefore could be more easily given up in negotiations.
> 
> "The North Koreans are saying in effect that 'we are a nuclear weapons state' and you have to deal with us on that basis," Harrison said.
> 
> The North Koreans also told him that they wouldn't consider dismantling their nuclear program until after the United States normalized diplomatic relations; that they want construction to resume on a light-water nuclear reactor to provide electricity; and that they would demand inspections of U.S. military bases in South Korea if they allow inspections in their own country.
> 
> "They have raised the bar," Harrison said.


----------



## Sonnyjim

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20090118/korea_military_090118/20090118?hub=World

For anybody interested.

SEOUL, South Korea -- South Korea said its army remained on alert Sunday, a day after North Korea threatened military action in response to Seoul's hard-line stance against its communist regime. 

The latest harsh rhetoric from the isolated regime appeared aimed at heightening tensions on the divided peninsula and could be a test for Barack Obama days before he is sworn in as the new U.S. president. 

The North's Korean People's Army called South Korean President Lee Myung-bak a "traitor" and accused him of preparing a military provocation, according to a statement carried Saturday by the North's state-run Korean Central News Agency. 

Pyongyang said it was adopting "an all-out confrontational posture" and warned of a "strong military retaliatory step." South Korea immediately put its forces on alert.


----------



## a_majoor

The Army directly issuing propaganda and threats? This sounds like the start of the end game predicted by Robert Kaplan in the October 2006 issue of Atlantic Monthly: When North Korea Falls.

_Who_ is going to answer that phone at 0300hr? (And more importantly, _*what will they say*_?)


----------



## Sonnyjim

*North Korea hails 'invincible' army, possible war *  

North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il has hailed his troops as "invincible" yesterday as state media warned of a possible military conflict with South Korea amid heightened tensions between the neighbors.
Kim expressed confidence in his soldiers' ability to "shatter any surprise invasion of the enemy at a single blow" as he inspected an army unit, the North's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said.

"The KPA (Korean People's Army)... has grown to be the invincible revolutionary ranks, all members of which devotedly defend the Party and the leader," it quoted Kim as saying, without giving a date for the visit.

The KCNA dispatch came days after North Korea scrapped all political and military agreements with the South, further raising tensions between the two sides, which technically remain at war as the 1950-1953 Korean War ended without a peace treaty.

"In Korea in the state of armistice confrontation means escalated tension and it may lead to an uncontrollable and unavoidable military conflict and a war," Rodong Sinmun, the North's ruling communist party paper, said yesterday......

Full Link:
http://www.taiwannews.com.tw/etn/news_content.php?id=853522&lang=eng_news&cate_img=logo_world&cate_rss=WORLD_eng



I know that there have been threats thrown around for the past decades, and specifically since 2002, but with the ailing health of Kim Jong would he be willing to throw his entire Army at the South on his deathbed? After reading a few books on this guy, I wouldn't leave it out of the equation.


----------



## old medic

N. Korea gearing up to fire missile, says official
Tue. Feb. 3 2009
The Associated Press



> SEOUL, South Korea -- North Korea appears to be preparing to test-fire a ballistic missile that could be capable of striking the western United States, a South Korean official and reports said Tuesday.
> 
> The move comes amid heightened tensions on the Korean peninsula, with the North declaring last week that it was abandoning pacts designed to prevent hostilities with the South.
> 
> The two Koreas technically remain at war because their three-year conflict ended in 1953 with a truce, not a peace treaty. Relations have been tense since President Lee Myung-bak took office a year ago with a tough new policy on Pyongyang, and rhetoric from the North Korean capital has escalated in recent days.
> 
> Analysts say the communist regime is trying to attract President Barack Obama's attention as he formulates his North Korea policy. Obama told Lee that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton would visit Seoul in mid-February.
> 
> South Korean intelligence has spotted a train carrying a long, cylinder-shaped object -- believed to be a long-range missile -- heading to Dongchang-ni, a new missile launch site on North Korea's west coast, the Yonhap news agency reported.
> 
> Intelligence indicates the missile is likely a long-range Taepodong-2 model, Yonhap said. The North could complete preparations for a missile launch within one or two months, the report said, citing unidentified officials.
> 
> South Korea's Defense Ministry declined to comment on Yonhap's report. But an intelligence official confirmed there are indications Pyongyang may test-fire a missile.
> 
> "There are signs North Korea is preparing for a missile launch," the official told The Associated Press. He declined to give any further details and spoke on condition of anonymity, citing the sensitivity of the issue.
> 
> The Taepodong-2 -- considered the North's most advanced rocket -- has a range of more than 6,700 kilometres, putting Alaska in range.
> 
> However, the missile being readied for a launch may be an upgrade of the Taepodong-2 missile, said Koh Yu-hwan, a North Korea expert at Seoul's Dongguk University. The North reportedly has been trying to develop an advanced version of Taepodong-2 capable of striking the west coast of the mainland United States.
> 
> Japanese government officials also cited preparations for the launch of an upgraded Taepodong-2, the Sankei newspaper reported in Tokyo. Officials at Japan's Defense and Foreign ministries could not be reached for comment Tuesday.
> 
> Any missile launch would be aimed at drawing Washington's attention as well as pressuring Seoul into softening its policy on Pyongyang, said Park Jung-chul, a North Korea expert at the government-funded Korea Institute for National Unification.
> 
> "It's designed to draw U.S. interest at a time when the North's nuclear program is being sidelined by the global financial crisis and the conflict in the Gaza Strip," Park said.
> 
> Koh said he doubted Pyongyang would fire a missile anytime soon because such a test could derail its goal of establishing relations with the Obama administration.
> 
> "North Korea has nothing to gain" from a missile launch right now -- but could fire off a missile if negotiations with Washington do not go well, Koh said.
> 
> North Korea's clandestine missile program has been a key regional concern, along with its nuclear weapons program. In 2006, the North launched a Taepodong-2 missile from its east coast site in Musudan-ni. The test was considered a failure because the rocket plunged into the ocean shortly after liftoff.
> 
> Last year, North Korea tested the engine of a long-range missile, indicating progress in developing a new missile, U.S. and South Korean officials said.
> 
> North Korea is not believed to have acquired the technology to develop a nuclear warhead light enough to be mounted on a missile, another South Korean intelligence official said. He did not give his name, citing department policy.


----------



## CougarKing

So Pyongyang has been cheating on its so-called disarmament initiatives the whole time that it was making a big show of blowing up that tower last year? Hopefully US/Allied intelligence services were already aware of this.



> *N. Korea Running Secret Nuclear Plant: Paper*
> By AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE
> Published: 17 Feb 21:38 EST (02:38 GMT)
> 
> SEOUL, - North Korea is operating a secret underground plant to make nuclear bombs from highly enriched uranium (HEU) despite denying that such a program exists, a South Korean newspaper said Feb. 18.
> 
> Dong-A Ilbo, quoting an unnamed senior government source, said South Korea and the United States have shared intelligence on the plant in Yongbyon district.
> 
> Seoul's National Intelligence Service refused comment on the report.
> 
> "Despite North Korea's denial that uranium enrichment programs exist, South Korea and the United States have shared information that North Korea has built an uranium enrichment plant which is in operation," the source told Dong-A.
> 
> Dong-A said both countries believe the facility can produce HEU for nuclear bombs. It said the plant is located at Sowi-ri in Yongbyon, North Pyongan Province, where the North's plutonium-based nuclear complex is situated.
> 
> The source was quoted as declining to give further details such as the technological level and the output of highly enriched uranium.
> 
> The North in 1994 signed a deal with the United States to shut down its admitted plutonium-producing reactor complex at Yongbyon in return for various incentives.
> 
> Washington's claims in 2002 of a secret HEU program torpedoed the 1994 deal and sparked a new nuclear crisis. Pyongyang rejected the U.S. allegations and restarted its reactor in protest.
> 
> A fresh round of nuclear disarmament talks began in 2003, involving both Koreas, the U.S., China, Japan and Russia. The talks focused on more pressing concerns about the plutonium program, which fuelled a 2006 atomic bomb test.
> 
> Yongbyon has been shut down in return for energy aid as part of a 2007 pact. But talks on the next stage - full denuclearization in return for diplomatic ties with Washington and a formal peace pact - are stalled by disputes over verifying the North's acknowledged nuclear activities.
> 
> U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who visits Seoul on Feb. 19 and 20, told a Senate confirmation hearing last month Washington is still concerned about the HEU program.
> 
> "Our goal is to end the North Korean nuclear program - both the plutonium reprocessing program and the highly enriched uranium program, which there is reason to believe exists, although never quite verified," she said.


----------



## Rifleman62

And, only reported by FOX News  http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,495264,00.html  so far:

Report: *N. Korea Plans to Launch Long-Range Missile Within 2 Weeks*
Wednesday, February 18, 2009 

North Korea plans to test a missile capable of reaching the continental U.S. within the next two to three weeks, Seoul's defense chief reportedly said Wednesday, as South Korea and the U.S. warned Pyongyang of sanctions and other consequences.

Defense Minister Lee Sang-hee made the prediction during a closed-door report to ruling Grand National Party leaders, Yonhap news agency said, citing unnamed participants.

The ministry said it cannot confirm the report. GNP spokeswoman Cho Yoon-sun was not available for comment.

North Korea is believed to be gearing up to test-fire its longest-range missile, the Taepodong-2, moving the rocket and other equipment to a launch site on the country's northeast coast. South Korean media have said a firing could come this month.

"They appear to be serious. This is no bluff," a senior U.S. Defense official told FOX News. "It could look like an attack on the U.S., but it won't be."

The U.S. Navy has put its Aegis radar anti-missile defense system on alert but has stopped short of putting the interceptor missiles on high alert. U.S. intelligence has seen North Koreans move the components for a missile launch into place in recent days.

Earlier Wednesday, Foreign Minister Yu Myung-hwan warned the North that a missile launch will "inevitably" entail sanctions because it would be a violation of a 2006 U.N. Security Council resolution banning Pyongyang from pursuing missile or nuclear programs.

Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, while visiting Japan as part of her Asian trip, warned Tuesday that a missile launch "would be very unhelpful in moving our relationship forward."

Amid growing international pressure to drop the plan, Pyongyang said earlier this week that it has the right to "space development" — a term it has used in the past to disguise a missile test as a satellite launch.

When Pyongyang conducted a ballistic missile test in 1998, it claimed it put a satellite into orbit. The regime carried out its first-ever nuclear test blast in 2006, and claims it has atomic bombs.

"If the North launches a missile or a satellite, it would be a violation of the U.N. Security Council resolution," Yu told a forum organized by the Korea Foundation, a government agency that promotes exchange with foreign countries. "It can't help but inevitably bring sanctions."

Yu said the North's nuclear capabilities make its missile program all the more worrisome.

"If nuclear capabilities are combined with long-range missile capabilities, it would have a very serious effect on international peace and security and pose decisive threats to neighboring countries and South Korea as well," he said.

North Korea has not shown any direct reaction to the warnings from Seoul and Washington.

But Pyongyang's official Korean Central News Agency said Tuesday the country won't give in to "threat and blackmail from the U.S.," accusing Washington of planning to invade the North — an allegation that Washington and Seoul have long denied.

International talks to rid the North of nuclear programs are stalled over Pyongyang's refusal to verify its past atomic activities. The negotiations bring together China, Japan, the two Koreas, Russia and the United States.

On Wednesday, South Korea's Dong-a Ilbo newspaper reported that the North has been secretly running an underground uranium enrichment facility near the country's main nuclear complex in Yongbyon, north of Pyongyang. The paper cited an unnamed senior South Korean government official.

Yu said he "knows of nothing" regarding the report, and declined further comment, citing the sensitivity of intelligence matters.

The current nuclear standoff flared in late 2002 after Washington raised allegations that Pyongyang had a clandestine nuclear program based on enriched uranium in addition to a separate one based on plutonium.

North Korea has strongly denied the allegations.

Amid the tensions, South Korea and the United States plan to conduct an annual military exercise next month.

The drill, dubbed Key Resolve and Foal Eagle, is to run from March 9-20 and involve about 26,000 American and 20,000 South Korean soldiers and a U.S. aircraft carrier, officials from both sides said Wednesday.

North Korea calls such drills a rehearsal for invasion, despite repeated assurances from the U.S. and South Korea that the exercises are purely defensive.

_FOX News' Jennifer Griffin and Justin Fishel and the Associated Press contributed to this report._


If the "missile capable of reaching the continental U.S." drops short, will it land Dawn Blacks riding (even if she goes Provincial)? Plenty of people in Canada seem to often forget that we share the continent with the USA.


----------



## old medic

Clinton says North Korea's Kim Jong Il may step down soon

The secretary of State says the U.S. and allies are trying to figure out how to respond to a change of power. Experts fear a new regime could be even more belligerent.
By Paul Richter
6:40 PM PST, February 19, 2009
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-clinton-korea20-2009feb20,0,6959609.story



> Reporting from Seoul -- Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said Thursday that U.S. officials and allies were scrambling to prepare for the possible departure from power of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il, a development she said threatened increased turbulence in one of the world's most heavily armed regions.
> 
> Arriving in Seoul for security talks, Clinton said persistent signs within the secretive Pyongyang government suggested that a change of leadership might be at hand. She said the South Korean government had been especially concerned about possible developments inside its impoverished northern neighbor.
> 
> "Everybody's trying to read the tea leaves about what's happening and what's likely to occur," Clinton told reporters on her plane during a flight from Jakarta, Indonesia, to Seoul, broaching a topic that has rarely been discussed publicly by U.S. officials.
> 
> Clinton said that even a peaceful succession "creates more uncertainty, and it could create conditions that are even more provocative" as the ascendant leadership tries to consolidate power.
> 
> The comments from the top American diplomat are certain to provoke a sharp reaction from Pyongyang. Hours earlier, the North Korean regime stepped up its confrontational rhetoric, saying its forces were "fully ready" for war with South Korea.
> 
> Clinton was on the fifth day of a weeklong trip to East Asia focused in part on what to do about North Korea, which is believed to have a handful of nuclear weapons.
> 
> U.S. intelligence agencies reported in August that the 67-year-old "Dear Leader," who has led the country since 1994, may have suffered a stroke or another serious health setback. Some observers played down the report and some U.S. officials have said since then that they believed Kim was once again in charge, if not at full capacity.
> 
> But Clinton's comments suggested that there is now a widespread conviction that Kim is on the way out, and that the South Koreans, Chinese, Americans and others are formulating plans on how to deal with the successor regime.
> 
> Signs of disarray in the North have included the firing this year of the defense minister and the military chief of staff. The promotion of one of Kim's three sons was announced and then withdrawn, U.S. officials noticed.
> 
> Some observers see another clue in the sudden breakdown of multinational talks over dismantlement of Pyongyang's nuclear program, and believe the regime's belligerent new tone may reflect the influence of emerging leaders.
> 
> Analysts have offered various possibilities about what the new leadership might look like. Some say that Kim's brother-in-law, or one of his three sons, could be a part of a new ruling group, but perhaps only as a figurehead.
> 
> Many experts fear that the successor regime, which will control the world's fifth-largest army, could be even more intractable than Kim's has been.
> 
> Clinton said the United States and its allies were trying to determine how to form a "common front" to restart the stalled nuclear negotiations, but pointed out that North Korea "has shown very little willingness to get back on track."
> 
> The fact the north's leadership is now "somewhat unclear" has compounded other difficulties of working with the regime, making diplomacy "a difficult undertaking," Clinton said.
> 
> The dangers of dealing with North Korea have been highlighted in recent weeks by reports that the regime is preparing to test a Taepodong 2 missile that some believe is potentially capable of striking U.S. territory. North Korea isn't yet able to mount a nuclear weapon on the tip of its missiles, experts say.
> 
> The regime has made a series of threats against South Korea and the United States through its official news agency. Michael Green, a top Asia expert in the Bush administration who is now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said this month that the chances for violence between North and South Korea were increasing in the disputed waters west of the peninsula.
> 
> Obama administration officials have acknowledged that the outlook for dealing with North Korea is not encouraging. Advisors have said that the general gloom surrounding the issue has made it more difficult for the administration to find a special envoy to seek solutions. Clinton said the administration was also thinking about how to formulate a new international effort to deal with North Korea's ballistic missile program. The North continues to make progress on longer-range missiles, and secret sales of its missile technology to other governments is a major worry for world powers.
> 
> Clinton said the missile issue was one of "great concern." She said she wanted to work with other countries to decide whether it would best be handled through the existing six-country forum or through a new approach.
> 
> One of Clinton's goals in her one-day visit to Seoul is to convince the beleaguered government of President Lee Myung-bak that the United States intends to stand up to the North, despite its promises that it will seek greater diplomatic engagement with adversary regimes.
> 
> Lee, a conservative, has incurred the wrath of the North by cutting off cash aid on grounds that Pyongyang is not living up to its commitments to the North-South peace effort. Many analysts believe that the North's recent threatening behavior has been aimed at undermining Lee, who is also in trouble politically at home because of the damaging effects of the world economic crisis in South Korea.
> 
> Clinton will fly to Beijing on Friday for talks with the Chinese government. She is interested in broadening the U.S.-Chinese diplomacy to put new emphasis on noneconomic issues, including climate change. But her comments Thursday underscored that discussions about North Korea will also be central in China.
> 
> U.S. officials believe the Chinese have influence with their smaller neighbor, and want Beijing to try to force more cooperation.


----------



## Blackadder1916

*Kim Jong Il anoints next leader of North Korea - his youngest son*
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article5766802.ece
Richard Lloyd Parry in Tokyo From The Times February 20, 2009

It is one of the most powerful and dangerous jobs in the world and, for decades, foreign politicians, academics and spies have speculated over who will one day succeed to it. It brings with it absolute power over 24 million people, the command of a fanatical, nuclear-equipped army of a million men and a brutal state security apparatus. And yesterday the man who is likely to inherit it emerged from the shadows – a little-known 25-year-old with a European education and fondness for sushi, German cars and baseball. 

Reports from North and South Korea yesterday appeared to confirm what until now has been only rumour – that Kim Jong Un, the youngest son of the North Korean leader, Kim Jong Il, is being lined up to inherit his father’s title. It would be the second hereditary succession in the last remaining totalitarian communist dictatorship – and sets the scene for a period of extreme instability in one of the world’s most unpredictable countries. 

One of his closest and most hardline generals yesterday promised the army’s loyalty to the “bloodline” of the senior Mr Kim, a virtual guarantee that one of his children will succeed him.“We will firmly carry on the blood-line of Mangyongdae and Mount Paektu with our guns, faithfully upholding the leadership of our supreme commander,” Pak Jae Kyong, a senior general of the North Korean Defence Ministry, was quoted in the state media as having said at a recent rally for Kim Jong Il’s birthday. Mount Paektu is the sacred mountain where Kim Jong Il, according to the cult of personality which surrounds him, was born 67 years ago. Mangyongdae was the family home of his late father, the founder of North Korea, Kim Il Sung. 

The South Korean news agency Yonhap quoted sources in Beijing saying that Jong Un has registered as a candidate in elections on March 8 for North Korea’s Supreme People’s Assembly – the precursor to his public emergence as his father’s successor.


----------



## OldSolduer

So what will his nickname be?
If Daddy was the Dear Leader, will he be the Dear Leader Junior?
 >


----------



## CougarKing

OldSolduer said:
			
		

> So what will his nickname be?
> If Daddy was the Dear Leader, will he be the Dear Leader Junior?
> >



Nahh..he will just be the next RONREY leader.


----------



## OldSolduer

CougarDaddy said:
			
		

> Nahh..he will just be the next RONREY leader.



I'm so ronry, I'm so ronry!

I'm hoping Dear Leader Junior wears those hideous glasses too.


----------



## CougarKing

It appears that the US could shoot down that soon-to-be-launched-North Korean missile if so ordered by Obama, according to the links in the quoted post from another forum below:



> http://closingvelocity.typepad.com/closing_velocity/
> 
> 
> This ABC News report is certainly a milestone --- I believe that is the first time I've seen the high success rates of our missile defense system reported so matter-of-factly by the MSM. Why just yesterday it seems, the MSM was still in the knee-jerk missile defense skepticism mode it had adopted long ago during the dark Reagan years.
> 
> One day missile defense is a wasteful relic of the Cold War, and the next it's on alert ready to save the world. Funny, that:
> 
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lBGYWcw3X1s


----------



## tomahawk6

The Japanese are considering a shoot down. They dont like these tests and would like to send a message to Dear leader.


----------



## CougarKing

post deleted. wrong thread.


----------



## CougarKing

So Kim Jong Il finally allowed some freedoms or is this just another jury-rigged election to give the appearance of legtitimacy?   :

From: Agence France-Presse - 3/8/2009 12:10 PM GMT



> *NKoreans vote in election seen as clue to succession*
> North Koreans voted on Sunday in elections for a new parliament which analysts say could pave the way for an eventual transition of power in the impoverished communist nation.
> 
> The vote is also being closely monitored around the world for clues as to whether the state, which tested an atomic weapon in October 2006, will soften its stance in international negotiations and dismantle its nuclear arsenal.
> 
> *Voting to the rubber-stamp parliament did not take place in 2008 when its five-year term expired amid fevered speculation over the health of reclusive leader Kim Jong-Il .
> 
> The North's television showed soldiers in uniform using both hands to politely raise and drop a ballot into a box at a Pyongyang polling station where Kim was standing. It said they were "voting for" Kim.
> 
> Kim himself "voted for" an army officer at a different district in Pyongyang, said the official Korean Central News Agency which reported a 93.1 percent turnout of registered voters at 2:00pm (0500 GMT).
> 
> Polling stations stayed open from 9:00am to 6:00pm, with election results likely to be announced Monday, Seoul officials said.
> 
> "All the voters are going to the polls to consolidate the people's power as firm as a rock," the agency said, quoting the Central Election Commission.*
> 
> "I am filled with joy to think that I am able to contribute to the strengthening of the revolutionary sovereign power through my vote," Park Mi-Hyang, a 22-year-old worker in Pyongyang, told Kyodo news agency.
> 
> Seoul and Washington say Kim Jong-Il has recovered well from a stroke he suffered in August and is in control, but his health and age have inevitably led to talk abroad about who will succeed him.
> 
> He inherited power from his father, Kim Il-Sung, in the communist world's only dynastic succession. But it is unclear whether he wants one of his three sons to succeed him -- and if so, which one.
> 
> "Kim Jong-Il will turn 72 when the next election comes, and given his ageing, it is likely that an idea about a post-Kim era will be reflected in the elections this time," Kim Yong-Hyun, a North Korea expert and professor at Dongguk University in Seoul, told AFP.
> 
> *Seoul's Yonhap news agency has said the leader has named his youngest son, Jong-Un, as his successor and that the 25-year-old is running in the election.
> 
> The outcome is not in doubt -- candidates are picked by the government or ruling party, and only one stands in each district.
> 
> The incoming assembly will re-elect Kim, 67, who is standing in a military district, as chairman of the National Defence Commission.
> 
> The commission, which supervises the 1.2 million-strong military, is the North's most powerful organ, and its new line-up will be seen as an indicator of who is moving up the ladder of power and influence.*
> 
> A new parliament is often the prelude to a cabinet reshuffle.
> 
> Assembly members commonly hold key posts in the ruling communist party as well as in the military and government, Seoul officials say.
> 
> Dongguk University's Kim said the outcome of the election would not necessarily manifest a father-to-son succession but could see "a generation change" in the top ranks.
> 
> "The North will likely bring in the young to replace the elderly with a future possible power transition in mind," he said, adding Pyongyang's power elite was overhauled in the 1998 and 2003 polls.
> 
> Kim Jong-Il last month called the elections "significant" in terms of reviving the economy by 2012, the 100th anniversary of the birth of his father, the nation's founding president.
> 
> Seoul's state-backed Institute for National Security Strategy says it expects the North to use the polls to promote people with specialist knowledge in an attempt to save the economy.
> 
> (...)


----------



## The Bread Guy

Seems airlines (including Air Canada) are re-routing flights over N.Korea because Dear Leader "could not guarantee aircraft safety when in North Korean air space because of a joint military exercise by the US and South Korea due to begin this week."  This, from the Dear Leader's news service (5 Mar 09, highlights mine):


> .... Under the touch-and-go situation where *the north and the south are in full combat readiness* and level their rifles and artillery pieces at each other, no one can guess what will trigger off a war .... Under the situation prevailing in the Peninsula no one knows what military conflicts will be touched off by the reckless war exercises of the U.S. and the puppet clique for a war of aggression against the DPRK. *It is, therefore, compelled to declare that security cannot be guaranteed for south Korean civil airplanes flying through the territorial air of our side and its vicinity, its territorial air and its vicinity above the East Sea of Korea, in particular, while the military exercises are under way ....*


More here and here.


----------



## OldSolduer

You know it really puzzles me why we let people like Kim Jong Il, Sadaam Hussein (although he got what he deserved) and a few other tin pot dictators stay around.
We let Pol Pot murder 3 million Cambodes, Karadic et al murder Bosnians and Croatians, and various other ne'er do wells murder, pillage and rape at will, including Darfur and Zimbabwe.. Yet many people in the West have this idea that to intervene is wrong and when things go sour, they whine and belly ache we are doing nothing!
I'm shaking my head.... am I the only one who thinks that sometimes you have to take a stand and say "STOP...this is wrong!!"
I realize we do not have the means necessary to help everyone....but where are the sheepdogs? Have they retired and been replaced by lapdogs?


----------



## a_majoor

While I agree in principle, Old Soldier, just look at the reaction in the United States to actually taking a stand in Iraq (and the silence following their victory there) or how Canadians are being told about our efforts in Afghanistan; while each death is obsessively covered by the MSM, little or no mention is made about building Route Summit, micro loans, supporting education, health care, professionalizing the government bureaucracy with the SAT-A, etc. etc.

Frankly, it seems that most people want to _proclaim_ their moral superioraty (i.e. "Free Tibet" stickers, or protesting the genocide in Darfur) without having to actually _do_ something. Where is the new "Mac-Pap" battalion of volunteers going to wage war against the Janjaweed, for example?

No, far easier and safer to talk about it, but heven help those people who actually go and do something about it (Governments and their armed forces).


----------



## OldSolduer

Thucydides said:
			
		

> While I agree in principle, Old Soldier, just look at the reaction in the United States to actually taking a stand in Iraq (and the silence following their victory there) or how Canadians are being told about our efforts in Afghanistan; while each death is obsessively covered by the MSM, little or no mention is made about building Route Summit, micro loans, supporting education, health care, professionalizing the government bureaucracy with the SAT-A, etc. etc.
> 
> Frankly, it seems that most people want to _proclaim_ their moral superioraty (i.e. "Free Tibet" stickers, or protesting the genocide in Darfur) without having to actually _do_ something. Where is the new "Mac-Pap" battalion of volunteers going to wage war against the Janjaweed, for example?
> 
> No, far easier and safer to talk about it, but heven help those people who actually go and do something about it (Governments and their armed forces).



You are preaching to the choir here my learned colleague. ( I learned the word "learned" in court..ahhhh)
It seems that sheepdogs are not in favor in North America. You are right...it's far safer to moan and whine about the sad state of affairs than actually DO anything to help. And now I see Brad Pitt pressing the US government over Hurricane Katrina.
Question...and I know we are off the topic, so move this if you feel necessary:

Question: Have those "superstars" (Bono, PItt, Clooney) donated any of the exhorbitant sums of money they receive for ACTING to their causes?


----------



## The Bread Guy

OldSolduer said:
			
		

> Question: Have those "superstars" (Bono, PItt, Clooney) donated any of the exhorbitant sums of money they receive for ACTING to their causes?



Especially given their grasp of the situation
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6QjOI7bj5ks
right?


----------



## old medic

An Associated Press article - disclaimer _SIC: US troop numbers appear to be a typo-error _

copy at: http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20090308/korea_satellite_090309/20090309?hub=World

N. Korea threatens 'war' if satellite is shot down
Mar. 9 2009
The Associated Press


> SEOUL, South Korea -- North Korea put its armed forces on standby for war Monday and threatened retaliation against anyone seeking to stop the regime from launching a satellite into space in the latest barrage of threats from the communist regime.
> 
> Pyongyang also cut off a military hot line with the South, causing a complete shutdown of their border and stranding hundreds of South Koreans working in an industrial zone in the North Korean border city of Kaesong.
> 
> Monday's warning came as U.S. and South Korean troops kicked off annual war games across the South, exercises the North has condemned as preparation for an invasion. Pyongyang last week threatened South Korean passenger planes flying near its airspace during the drills.
> 
> Analysts say the regime is trying to grab President Barack Obama's attention as his administration formulates its North Korea policy.
> 
> The North also indicated it was pushing ahead with plans to fire a communications satellite into space, a provocative launch neighboring governments believe could be a cover for a missile test.
> 
> U.S. and Japanese officials have suggested they could shoot down a North Korean missile if necessary, further incensing Pyongyang.
> 
> "Shooting our satellite for peaceful purposes will precisely mean a war," the general staff of the North's military said in a statement carried Monday by the official Korean Central News Agency.
> 
> Any interception will draw "a just retaliatory strike operation not only against all the interceptor means involved but against the strongholds" of the U.S., Japan and South Korea, it said.
> 
> The North has ordered military personnel "fully combat ready" for war, KCNA said in a separate dispatch.
> 
> Obama's special envoy on North Korea again urged Pyongyang not to fire a missile, which he said would be an "extremely ill-advised" move.
> 
> "Whether they describe it as a satellite launch or something else makes no difference" since both would violate a UN Security Council resolution banning the North from ballistic activity, Stephen Bosworth told reporters after talks with his South Korean counterpart.
> 
> South Korea's Defense Ministry spokesman Won Tae-jae downplayed the North's threats as "rhetoric" but said the country's military was ready to deal with any contingencies.
> 
> Analysts say a satellite or missile launch could occur late this month or in early April when the North's new legislature, elected Sunday, is expected to convene its first session to confirm Kim Jong Il as leader.
> 
> Ties between the two Koreas have plunged since South Korean President Lee Myung-bak took office a year ago halting aid unless the North fulfills an international promise to dismantle its nuclear program.
> 
> An angered North Korea suspended the reconciliation process and key joint projects with Seoul, and has stepped up the stream of belligerence toward the South.
> 
> Severing the military hot line for the duration of the 12-day joint U.S.-South Korean military exercises leaves the two Koreas without any means of communication at a time when even an accidental skirmish could develop into a full-blown battle.
> 
> The two Koreas use the hot line to exchange information about goods and people crossing into Kaesong. Its suspension halted traffic and stranded about 570 South Koreans who were working in Kaesong.
> 
> About 80 had planned to return to the South on Monday but were stuck there overnight since they cannot travel after nightfall. Earlier, some 700 South Koreans who intended to go to Kaesong on Monday were unable to cross the border, the Unification Ministry said.
> 
> All South Koreans in Kaesong are safe, the ministry said as it called on Pyongyang to restore the hot line immediately.
> 
> The two Koreas technically remain in a state of war since their three-year conflict ended in a cease-fire, not a peace treaty, in 1953. Hundreds of thousands of troops are amassed on each side of the Demilitarized Zone separating the two Koreas, making the Korean border one of the world's most heavily armed.
> 
> The United States, which has 28,5000 troops in South Korea, routinely holds military exercises with the South. Pyongyang routinely condemns them as rehearsals for invasion despite assurances from Seoul and Washington that the drills are defensive.
> 
> The exercises, which will involve some 26,000 U.S. troops, an unspecified number of South Korean soldiers and a U.S. aircraft carrier, are "not tied in any way to any political or real world event," Gen. Walter Sharp, commander of the U.S. troops, said Monday.


----------



## OldSolduer

After reading some comments on another thread not associated with army.ca,k I can only conclude some people learned international relations from Sesame Street or Romper Room.  ;D


----------



## CougarKing

OldSolduer said:
			
		

> After reading some comments on another thread not associated with army.ca,k I can only conclude some people learned international relations from Sesame Street or Romper Room.  ;D



Say, OldSolduer you seen this link  about the "Dear Great Leader" yet?  ;D He's so RONRY(yes I know the real one is married).


----------



## OldSolduer

CougarDaddy said:
			
		

> Say, OldSolduer you seen this link  about the "Dear Great Leader" yet?  ;D He's so RONRY(yes I know the real one is married).



Good one.....he's a lunatic....the 600 pound gorilla in the room no one wants to talk about.
.50 cal...... :sniper:


----------



## old medic

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-korea-war-games10-2009mar10,0,6470939.story

U.S., South Korea open war games; North Korea in combat mode

By John M. Glionna and Ju-min Park
10:02 AM PDT, March 9, 2009





> Reporting from Seoul -- The U.S. and South Korea today began annual war games involving tens of thousands of troops, prompting North Korea to call its military into "full combat readiness," saying it views the joint land and sea exercises as a prelude to an invasion.
> 
> The hostilities raised tensions on the Korean peninsula to their highest point in weeks as the U.S. and its allies anxiously awaited North Korea's test launch of its most advanced long-range missile.
> 
> North Korean officials late last week declared that the isolationist nation could not guarantee the safety of South Korean passenger jets flying near its airspace during the 12-day exercises.
> 
> Several airlines immediately announced that they would avoid North Korean airspace as a precaution. North Korea also cut off a military hotline, leaving North and South without means of communication during the escalating brinkmanship.
> 
> South Korea today expressed regret over the suspension of what it called a crucial channel of contact. Officials said 726 South Koreans also were barred from crossing into North Korea to the jointly run Kaesong Industrial Complex.
> 
> "We, the government, feel sorry that North Korea continues to take regrettable measures, although we are reacting with patience," said South Korea's Ministry of Unification spokesman Kim Ho-nyeon.
> 
> Meanwhile, U.S. military officials here tried to diffuse tensions while stressing that the exercises, which will be larger in scale and duration than in previous years, would go on as scheduled.
> 
> "The primary goal is to ensure the command is ready to defend the [Republic of Korea] in the event it becomes necessary," said U.S. Army Gen. Walter L. Sharp, commander of U.S. forces in South Korea.
> 
> He insisted that the war games were "a routine training exercise that takes place every year at about the same time. It is not tied in any way to any political or real-world event."
> 
> Stephen Bosworth, the new U.S. envoy on North Korean issues, met today with South Korean officials. The former U.S. ambassador to Seoul arrived Saturday for four days of meetings at the end of an Asian tour that also took him to Beijing and Tokyo.
> 
> Bosworth said today he knew a tough job lay ahead.
> 
> "I have no illusions about what I have agreed to do. It is a very difficult mandate," he told South Korean Foreign Minister Yu Myung-hwan, according to South Korea's Yonhap news agency.
> 
> Usually testy in response to what it sees as provocations from the administration of hard-line South Korean President Lee Myung-bak, North Korea proclamations have become more belligerent.
> 
> Experts say North Korea is particularly incensed at suggestions made by the U.S. and Japan that they could if necessary shoot down any long-range test missile launched by North Korea.
> 
> North Korean officials have said they are planning to launch a communications satellite and today threatened that they would view any outside interference as an act of war.
> 
> The military will "deal merciless retaliatory blows at them," if outside forces intrude on North Korea by "even one inch," said a North Korean news agency. "The Lee Myung-bak group of traitors and the U.S. and Japanese aggressors would be well advised to behave with discretion."
> 
> North Korea has the world's fifth-largest military, with its armed forces estimated to number more than 1 million.
> 
> The U.S.-South Korea military exercises, called Key Resolve-Foal Eagle drills, will involve 26,000 U.S. servicemen, including 13,100 stationed outside South Korea, and will also involve several U.S. destroyers and the aircraft carrier John Stennis.
> 
> Experts here say verbal bombast is expected from North Korea when it feels under threat.
> 
> "The U.S. and South Korea do this military exercise annually and historically North Korea has been oversensitive," said political scientist Kim Seung-hwan, a senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
> 
> He said the impoverished nation normally resorts to words over weapons. "It costs a lot of money, such as in gas, fuel and observation," he said. "North Korea has used its hostile rhetoric over military drills."
> 
> North Korea's reported plans to test fire its Taepodong-2 missile also come at a crucial time. The last test launch in 2006 was a failure and the regime of hard-line ruler Kim Jong Il believes it needs a successful launch to boost public opinion, experts say.
> 
> On Sunday, North Korea held parliamentary elections, and new members are scheduled to reelect Kim as leader in early April.
> 
> Pyongyang watchers say the government might also at that time announce the appointment of Kim's third son, Jong-un, to succeed his father, who has reportedly suffered several debilitating strokes.


----------



## CougarKing

Here's a little update:

from: Agence France-Presse - 3/9/2009 4:44 PM GMT

So which Kim Jong Il double do you think the DPRK/North Korea will send? hehehehe.



> *NKorea's Kim to visit China: state media*
> North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il is to make an official trip to China, state media said Tuesday, as the two allies celebrate the 60th anniversary of diplomatic relations.
> 
> The Korean Central News Agency said in a short statement that Kim had accepted an invitation from Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao. The statement gave no further details and did not say when the visit would go ahead.
> 
> "Kim Yong Il, premier of the Cabinet of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, will soon pay an official goodwill visit to the People's Republic of China at the invitation of Wen Jiabao," the statement said.
> 
> North Korean state media reported late last month that China had invited Kim for a summit with President Hu Jintao.
> 
> It said the invitation was extended by senior official Jia Qinglin to a visiting delegation of the North's ruling Workers' Party, the Korean Central Broadcasting Station said.
> 
> "Mutual visits by the leaders of the two countries are the most essential and irreplaceable in developing bilateral relations," Jia was quoted as telling the North Korean officials.
> 
> "We will ardently welcome Comrade Kim Jong-Il and senior officials of the Korean party and government to visit China at a convenient time."
> 
> Jia is chairman of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and the fourth-ranking member of the Communist Party's Politburo standing committee.
> 
> Kim accepted a similar invitation from Hu in a letter delivered by a Chinese party official in January, according to Chinese state media.
> 
> The official, Wang Jiarui, was the first foreign guest to meet Kim since his reported stroke last August.
> 
> No schedule has been set for a summit. Kim last visited China in January 2006 in a trip focusing on its industrial facilities. Hu's last visit to Pyongyang was in October 2005.
> 
> Yonhap said the North Korean delegation was led by Ri Kwang-ho, a close confidant of Kim's and the country's top science expert. Ri also accompanied the North Korean leader on his latest China visit.
> 
> Jia proposed strengthening economic and trade links, according to the broadcaster, saying this would be beneficial to "strategic cooperation."
> 
> After the meeting between Kim and Wang on January 23, North Korea announced that China has decided to provide free aid but gave no details.
> 
> China is by far the North's biggest trade partner. It fought for the North in the 1950-53 Korean War against South Korea and US-led United Nations forces.


----------



## a_majoor

First Iran, now the DPRK will test a satellite launcher. The "Axis of Evil" never quits, but look at the reaction...

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/mar/13/north-korea-japan-nuclear-missile



> *Japan warns it may shoot down North Korean satellite launcher*
> 
> • Pyongyang says response would be act of war
> • Regional tensions rise over missile launch
> 
> * Justin McCurry in Tokyo
> * guardian.co.uk, Friday 13 March 2009 12.39 GMT
> 
> Japan today threatened to shoot down a satellite that North Korea plans to launch early next month if it shows any signs of striking its territory.
> 
> Tokyo's warning that it would deploy its multibillion-dollar missile defence system raised tensions in the region after North Korea said that it had identified a potential "danger area" near Japanese territory along the rocket's flight path.
> 
> The regime told the International Maritime Organisation that the missile would be launched during daylight between 4 and 8 April, and that its boosters would fall into the Sea of Japan – about 75 miles (120km) from Japan's north-west coast – and the Pacific Ocean.
> 
> Officials in Tokyo said they reserved the right to destroy any threatening object in mid-flight, despite North Korean warnings that it would consider such a move an act of war.
> 
> "Under our law, we can intercept any object if it is falling towards Japan, including any attacks on Japan, for our security," Takeo Kawamura, the chief cabinet secretary, told reporters.
> 
> Despite repeated assurances from Pyongyang that the rocket is a vital part of North Korea's space programme, other countries in the region suspect the hardware is a Taepodong-2 ballistic missile.
> 
> South Korean intelligence has reported a build-up of activity in recent days near the missile's launch pad at Musudan-ri base on its neighbour's north-east coast.
> 
> Any missile launch, even one intended to put a satellite into orbit, would represent a snub to the US administration, which has repeatedly invited the communist state to return to negotiations over its nuclear weapons programme.
> 
> Last month the US secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, urged the north to cancel the launch, which US officials say would be in violation of a 2006 UN security council resolution.
> 
> The South Korean foreign ministry said in a statement: "If North Korea goes ahead with the launch, we believe there will be discussions and a response by the security council on the violation of the resolution."
> 
> The UN secretary-general, Ban Ki-moon, said a missile or satellite launch would "threaten the peace and stability in the region."
> 
> After Japan's transport ministry ordered airlines and shipping companies operating in the area to take precautionary measures, Japan Airlines and All Nippon Airways said they would alter flight paths on several European and other routes.
> 
> Speculation has been mounting for weeks that North Korea was about to put its hitherto unreliable missile technology to the test. The regime suffered a setback in 2006 when a Taepodong-2 missile – theoretically capable of reaching Alaska – blew up moments into its flight.
> 
> Japan has intensified efforts to protect itself against conventional missile attacks since 1998, when the north test-launched a long-range rocket over its territory without warning.
> 
> In response, Japan and the US have jointly developed a ballistic missile defence system that includes interceptor missiles on board ships and Patriot missiles dotted around Tokyo.
> 
> But experts believe that a rocket capable of launching a satellite into orbit may be too high to intercept.


----------



## Yrys

N Korea sets rocket launch date, Thursday, 12 March 2009







North Korea has said it plans to carry out a controversial rocket launch between 4 and 8 April.

The International Maritime Organization said it had received a communication from Pyongyang
confirming the launch. South Korea and the US say Pyongyang may be preparing to test-fire a
long-range missile and have warned it not to go ahead with the launch.

But North Korea insists it is preparing to send up a communications satellite, not a missile.
It has said any attempt to shoot it down will result in war.

North Korea's neighbours believe it is planning to test-fire the Taepodong 2 missile - which is 
capable of reaching Alaska - from the Musudan-ri base in Hwadae on its north-east coast. It 
first tested the missile in July 2006, but it failed less than a minute after launch.

Earlier this month Japan suggested it could deploy a vessel equipped with missile interceptor 
technology to the Sea of Japan (East Sea) to shoot the rocket down. On Thursday, it called 
on North Korea to exercise restraint, saying it "would not tolerate" its moves to raise tensions
in the region.

*Nuclear talks*

The IMO said Pyongyang informed the agency of its intentions on Wednesday - confirming 
earlier reports by South Korean officials. "We have received a letter and it contains dates, 
times and coordinates," said IMO spokesman Lee Adamson, confirming the dates as 4-8 April.

The BBC's John Sudworth in Seoul says guidelines state that the world transport authorities 
should be informed in advance, so they can warn ships and planes.

A South Korean maritime ministry official, citing information from the IMO, said the North 
referred to areas in the Pacific Ocean and the Sea of Japan (East Sea). The ministry said 
the rocket's booster would fall into the sea between Japan and the Korean peninsula, and 
its main body would plunge into the Pacific.

Our correspondent says that despite a range of international sanctions, North Korea has 
built what it calls "an experimental communications satellite" and a rocket capable of 
delivering it into orbit.

If successful, the launch would have a major propaganda message - North Korea would 
have beaten its Southern rival into space, our correspondent says. South Korea's own 
home-grown satellite project is not scheduled for take-off until later in the year.

*Stoking tensions*

The reports come a day after US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton warned that Washington 
had "a range of options" it could take if North Korea went ahead with the launch - including, 
Reuters reported, action in the UN Security Council. She said the six-way talks on ending 
North Korea's nuclear programme would not be affected.

Mrs Clinton also expressed disappointment that a US special envoy who had just visited the 
region was not invited to Pyongyang.

North Korea's move is stoking already heightened tensions with South Korea. Pyongyang said 
it had put its military on full combat alert as an annual military exercise by US and South 
Korean forces began earlier this week. And in January, the North scrapped a series of peace 
agreements with the South over Seoul's decision to link bilateral aid to progress on 
denuclearisation. 



North Korea's missile programme


----------



## CougarKing

Now what could Pyongyang be up to now with this latest development?



> SEOUL, South Korea – *North Korean guards detained an American journalist near the country's western border with China, a newspaper report said Thursday. However, another report said two U.S. reporters were taken into custody in the far northeast while trying to shoot footage of the communist country.*
> 
> http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090319/ap_on_re_as/as_nkorea_us_journalist_held


----------



## zipperhead_cop

A good question would also be "what were the 'reporters' up to and photographing?"  Some photo ops are more interesting than others...


----------



## CougarKing

Time for the ROKAF or the JASDF to pull an Osiraq-like precision preemptive air strike on this target?  

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20090326/pl_afp/nkoreanuclearmissileskorea;_ylt=AhL5yzpt4SUCyIKYOlOKAlJ34T0D



> *NKorea places long-range missile on launch pad*
> AFP/KCNA via KNS/File – A Korean People's Army missile unit on display during a military parade in Pyongyang. Secretive North …
> Play Video North Korea Video:'A Provocative Act' FOX News  Play Video North Korea Video:Clinton: NKorea missile plan 'provocative' AP  Play Video North Korea Video:Interrogation underway of reporters in N. Korea AP by Jim Mannion Jim Mannion – 1 hr 12 mins ago
> WASHINGTON (AFP) – North Korea has placed a long-range missile on a launch pad, a US official has said, as Washington warned it would take the matter to the United Nations if Pyongyang goes ahead with the planned launch.
> 
> US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said a launch for any purpose would be a violation of a UN Security Council resolution.
> 
> "We intend to raise this violation of the UN Security Council resolution, if it goes forward, in the UN," Clinton said during a visit to Mexico City.
> 
> "This provocative action in violation of the United Nations mandate will not go unnoticed and there will be consequences," she said.
> 
> A US counter-proliferation official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told AFP that Japanese press reports that a long-range missile has been placed on a launch pad "are accurate."
> 
> The official said the missile was believed to be a Taepodong-2, a long-range missile that could, in theory, reach Alaska.
> 
> Two stages of the missile were visible but the top was covered with a shroud supported by a crane, NBC television reported, citing US officials.
> 
> North Korea has said it intends to launch a satellite over Japan and into orbit between April 4-8.
> 
> But the United States, South Korea and Japan suspect that the planned launch is a disguise for a long-range missile test.
> 
> South Korea Thursday described North Korea's planned rocket launch as a "serious challenge and provocation" to regional security.
> 
> Defence ministry spokesman Won Tae-Jae declined to confirm the US report, saying Seoul would not comment on intelligence matters.
> 
> But he said the communist state is moving forward with preparations for the launch, which would constitute "a serious challenge and provocation" to the security of the Korean peninsula and Northeast Asia.
> 
> "North Korea's long-range rocket launch clearly violates UN Security council Resolution 1718. We strongly urge it to stop this immediately," Won said.
> 
> On Tuesday, North Korea warned that stalled six-party nuclear disarmament talks would collapse if new UN sanctions are imposed to punish the launch. The forum groups the United States, Japan, Russia, the two Koreas and China.
> 
> Japan's security council, meanwhile, will meet this week to prepare for the shooting down of a North Korean rocket if it threatens to strike its territory, Prime Minister Taro Aso said Wednesday.
> 
> Japan's government will issue an advance order Friday for the Self-Defense Forces to use its Patriot missile defense system to destroy any missile or debris if it shows signs of falling toward Japan, Jiji Press reported.
> 
> North Korea says it would regard any attempt to shoot down its rocket as an act of war.
> 
> The last time North Korea launched a Taepodong-2, on July 4, 2006, the missile failed seconds after launch. Success this time would show that it is capable of reaching Alaska or Hawaii with a nuclear capable missile.
> 
> President Barack Obama's administration has issued no public warning that it would shoot down a North Korean rocket.
> 
> Admiral Timothy Keating, the US commander in the Pacific, said earlier this month there was a "high probability" that the United States could intercept a missile aimed at its territory.
> 
> Washington and Tokyo have worked jointly on a missile defense shield, using land and sea-based missiles, against a possible attack from North Korea, which fired a missile over Japan in 1998 and tested a nuclear bomb in 2006.
> 
> Pyongyang has said that the rocket's first booster will likely plunge into the Sea of Japan (East Sea) off Japan's northern Akita prefecture, while the second will drop into the Pacific between Japan and Hawaii.
> 
> In an unsourced online report, The Sankei Shimbun said "North Korea has entered into the final stage of preparing for a launch as it has moved a rocket from storage."
> 
> And the Mainichi Shimbun said in an online report, quoting an unnamed South Korean defense source, that the missile was in place and would in theory be ready for launch as early as Saturday.
> 
> Tensions have been rising between North and South Korea. The North in January scrapped all peace pacts with its neighbour.
> 
> China's military chief, General Chen Bingde, arrived Wednesday in Seoul for talks with senior South Korean officials days before the scheduled launch.
> 
> China, a traditional ally and major donor for impoverished North Korea as well as a permanent UN Security Council member, has not publicly urged Pyongyang to halt the launch.


----------



## CougarKing

I wonder if the USS _McCain_ is named after Senator McCain or his father or grandfather?

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/afp/090326/usa/nkorea_nuclear_missile_japan_us_military




> US says warships deployed before NKorea launch
> Module body
> 
> 2 hours, 42 minutes ago
> 
> 
> TOKYO (AFP) - The US Navy said Thursday it had deployed two warships in waters off Japan ahead of North Korea's planned rocket launch early next month.
> 
> 
> *Two destroyers fitted with Aegis technology to track and destroy missiles left port on Wednesday, US Navy public relations officer Charles Howard told AFP.*
> 
> 
> "I would say we are ready for any contingencies," he said.
> 
> 
> *Pyongyang says it will launch a communications satellite between April 4 and 8. The United States and its Asian allies suspect the launch is a test of a long-range ballistic missile that could reach North America.*
> 
> Tensions have risen after US officials said overnight that North Korea had moved a Taepodong-2 missile to the Musudan-ri launch site on the country's northeast coast.
> 
> 
> The US Navy spokesman said two Aegis-equipped destroyers -- *the USS McCain and USS Chafee * -- left Sasebo port in southwestern Japan where a third, the *USS Curtis Wilbur*, remained docked.
> 
> 
> *The USS Stethem*, another Aegis-equipped destroyer, was set to leave northern Aomori port Thursday after a port call of several days, a US Navy spokeswoman said, without specifying its destination.
> 
> 
> *The Japanese navy's two Aegis-equipped destroyers Kongo and Chokai are on stand-by at Sasebo, a defence ministry spokeswoman said.
> 
> 
> A South Korean Aegis-equipped warship is also likely to be deployed in waters near Japan, public broadcaster TBS reported, without citing sources.*
> 
> 
> The North's missiles have alarmed Japan since a Taepodong-1 overflew its territory in 1998. The first test of a longer-range Taepodong-2 in 2006 failed after 40 seconds.
> 
> 
> Japan's security council will meet this week to prepare for the shooting down of any rocket or debris which threatens to strike its territory.
> 
> 
> General Ryoichi Oriki, chief of staff of the Japanese Self Defence Forces, told a media briefing: "We will take all measures possible to ensure safety once the government order is issued."
> 
> 
> Asked when he would deploy surface-to-air Patriot missiles and the destroyers, he said: "We want to deploy swiftly after the order."


----------



## Rifleman62

USS John S  McCain (DDG 56) is the namestake of his grandfather and father, John Sidney, Sr., and John Sidney, Jr., both 4 star Admirals. http://www.McCain.navy.mil/Site%20Pages/namesake.aspx

Faith OF My Fathers is a good read.

P.S.  wonder if the North Korean army will fight, or will fight to the end? Are they totally indoctrinated, in fear, out of touch with reality?


----------



## tomahawk6

Both the USN and JDF are in position fpr a shoot down attempt should the political masters decide to gibe it a try.

As for the NK Army they are indoctrinated to do what they are told. If they invade the south the troops will know they will be able to eat as much as they like. Expect a no holds barred fight for the first 30 days anyway. Once the regime is seen to collapse then the military will collapse as well.


----------



## CougarKing

An update: and Japan okays the shoot-down of the North Korean satellite launcher! It seems those JMSDF AEGIS destroyers may see action after all.

http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?i=4010747&c=ASI&s=TOP



> *Japan OKs Shoot-Down of Inbound N. Korean Rocket*
> Agence France-Presse
> Published: 27 Mar 14:16 EDT (18:16 GMT)
> 
> TOKYO - Japan's leaders Friday authorized the shooting down of a North Korean rocket or its debris if it threatens to hit the country, said Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada.
> 
> "I issued the necessary order after the (government) security council this morning decided to issue a destruction order in advance," he said after a meeting with Prime Minister Taro Aso and other key cabinet ministers.
> 
> Related TopicsAsia & Pacific Rim
> "We will do our best to handle any flying object from North Korea in order to assure the Japanese people's safety and security."
> 
> *The defense ministry was expected to deploy two Aegis-equipped destroyers in the Sea of Japan (East Sea) and Patriot interceptors in northern Akita and Iwate prefectures, although Hamada announced no precise plans.*
> 
> The isolated Pyongyang regime has said it will launch a communications satellite over Japanese territory in early April, but the United States and its Asian allies suspect the launch is a ballistic missile test.
> 
> *Tokyo, which has developed a missile defense system with the United States in recent years, has previously warned it will attempt to shoot down any missile or debris that threatens to hit its territory.
> 
> North Korea, which has announced a launch window of April 4 to 8, says it would regard a rocket intercept as an act of war.
> 
> The order is Japan's first of its kind after it revised its Self-Defense Forces Law in 2005 and legalized possible interceptions of ballistic missiles.*
> 
> (...)
> 
> North Korea has warned that the rocket's first booster would likely plunge into the Sea of Japan off Japan's northern Akita prefecture, while the second stage would drop into the Pacific between Japan and Hawaii.
> 
> Japan has warned that any North Korean launch would be a breach of past U.N. resolutions and has repeatedly urged Pyongyang to refrain from the launch.


----------



## tomahawk6

Good news because I dont think Obama would give the order to the USN to launch.


----------



## CougarKing

Yikes! And now Gates says that the US won't be able to shoot it down.


http://www.foxnews.com/politics/first100days/2009/03/29/gates-prepared-respond-north-korea-missile-launch/




> *The United States can do nothing to stop North Korea from breaking international law in the next 10 days by firing a missile that is unlikely to be shot down by the U.S. or its allies, Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Sunday.*
> Appearing on "FOX News Sunday," Gates said North Korea "probably will" fire the missile, prompting host Chris Wallace to ask: "And there's nothing we can do about it?"
> 
> *"No," Gates answered, adding, "I would say we're not prepared to do anything about it."*
> 
> Last week, Admiral Timothy Keating, commander of U.S. forces in the Pacific, said the U.S. is "fully prepared" to shoot down the missile. But Gates said such a response is unlikely.
> 
> *"I think if we had an aberrant missile, one that was headed for Hawaii, that looked like it was headed for Hawaii or something like that, we might consider it," Gates said. "But I don't think we have any plans to do anything like that at this point."
> 
> North Korea has moved a missile onto a launch pad and says it will be fired by April 8.* Pyonyang insists the missile is designed for carrying a communications satellite, not a nuclear warhead that the secretive nation appears bent on developing.
> 
> *Gates said while he doesn't think North Korea has the capability yet to shoot off a long-range nuclear-tipped missile, "I don't know anyone at a senior level in the American government who does not believe this technology is intended as a mask for the development of an intercontinental ballistic missile."*
> Gates conceded that North Korea will likely get away with thumbing its nose at the international community by test-firing the missile. He also said that six-party talks aimed at curbing Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions have been largely fruitless.
> 
> "It's very troubling," Gates said. "The reality is that the six-party talks really have not made any headway anytime recently."
> 
> Gates also lamented that the missile launch planned by dictator Kim Jong-Il comes just two months after President Obama took office.
> 
> "If this is Kim Jong-Il's welcoming present to a new president, launching a missile like this and threatening to have a nuclear test, I think it says a lot about the imperviousness of this regime in North Korea to any kind of diplomatic overtures," he said.
> 
> *Gates also said Japan is unlikely to shoot down a North Korean missile unless it drops debris on the island nation.*
> The Obama administration has signaled it wants to scale back the deployment of a missile defense system that was initiated by former President George W. Bush. The White House is also talking about dropping plans for missile defense facilities in Poland and the Czech Republic.
> 
> Gates lamented the futility of diplomatic efforts toward North Korea and Iran, another nation with nuclear ambitions. Despite the Obama administration's talk of ramping up diplomatic overtures toward Tehran, Gates was pessimistic about that strategy.
> 
> "Frankly, from my perspective, the opportunity for success is probably more in economic sanctions in both places than it is in diplomacy," Gates said. "What gets them to the table is economic sanctions."


----------



## CougarKing

And as the day for the launch grows nearer,  Pyongyang shows no sign of backing down from what it is about to do.

http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/asiapcf/04/01/north.korea.rocket/index.html



> *North Korea is fueling rocket, U.S. military says*
> Story Highlights
> Nation could be in the final stages of launch, which could come this weekend
> 
> Sources say "bulbous" shroud atop rocket could indicate satellite aboard
> 
> Any such launch would violate U.N. Security Council resolution
> 
> Pentagon worries launch of any kind will help nation develop missile program
> 
> By Mike Mount
> CNN Senior Pentagon Producer
> WASHINGTON (CNN) -- North Korea has begun fueling its long-range rocket, according to a senior U.S. military official.
> 
> The fueling signals that the country could be in the final stages of what North Korea has said will be the launch of a satellite into space as early as this weekend, the senior U.S. military official said Wednesday.
> 
> Other U.S. military officials said the top portion of the rocket was put on very recently, but satellite imagery shows a shroud over the stage preventing a direct view of what it looks like.
> 
> The officials said the payload appears to have a "bulbous" cover, which could indicate that there is a satellite loaded on it. Such a cover protects a satellite from damage in flight.
> 
> Although the sources did not know for sure what the payload is, they said there is no reason to doubt that it is a satellite, as indicated by North Korea.
> 
> Pyongyang has said it will launch the rocket between April 4 and April 8. A launch would violate a 2006 United Nations Security Council resolution banning the reclusive state from launching ballistic missiles.
> 
> Pentagon officials worry less about the payload and more about the launch itself, saying that any kind of launch will give the North Koreans valuable information about improving their ballistic missile program.
> 
> The United States believes that the North Koreans have the technology to hit Alaska or Hawaii with a missile and that the country is working on advancing that technology so it could hit the west coast of the United States.


----------



## tomahawk6

Its clear that Iran and NK are working together to advance their shared goals. Iran needs a delivery system for its nuclear warheads. North Korea has not had success with nuclear testing which the Iranians can help with and profit by. If NK can get a working device this means Iran wont need to test,they can copy the NK design.


----------



## CougarKing

Another update: Obama delivers tough words against Pyongyang.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090402/ap_on_re_us/us_nkorea_missile



> *Obama issues warning as North Korea readies rocket*
> AFP By PAULINE JELINEK, Associated Press Writer Pauline Jelinek, Associated Press Writer – 11 mins ago
> WASHINGTON – As North Korea fueled a multistage rocket Thursday for its threatened satellite launch, President Barack Obama promised a "stern" response and Japan vowed to press for an emergency session of the U.N. Security Council. Senior U.S. defense officials said that trailers and vehicles carrying rocket propellant were in place at North Korea's coastal launch site and that fueling had begun.
> A U.S. counter-proliferation official said the fueling process could take "up to a few days." But a senior U.S. intelligence official told The Associated Press that Pyongyang was on track for a projected Saturday launch
> 
> The American officials spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence issues.
> 
> At the G-20 summit in London, Obama and South Korean President Lee Myung-bak issued a statement agreeing on "a stern, united response from the international community if North Korea launches a long-range rocket."
> 
> State Department spokesman Robert Wood would not address the U.S. intelligence reports. But he repeated earlier warnings for the North Koreans not to take any "provocative" actions.
> 
> Japan's ambassador to the U.N. said his nation will request an emergency session of the Security Council if North Korea proceeds with the launch. Yukio Takasu said he raised the possibility during closed-door council talks Thursday.
> 
> Takasu and other council diplomats say they anticipate a possible emergency session as early as this weekend.
> 
> North Korea heightened its militarist rhetoric toward the U.S., Japan and South Korea on Thursday, threatening retaliation for any attempt to shoot down the rocket. Quoting an unidentified North Korean general, the North Korean Central News Agency said Japan would be struck with a "thunderbolt of fire" if it attempts to intercept the multistage rocket.
> 
> The news service also issued a veiled threat against American warships moving in position to monitor the launch, saying: "The United States should immediately withdraw armed forces deployed if it does not want to receive damage."
> 
> Some U.S. lawmakers are urging Obama to shoot down the rocket if it endangers the United States or its allies. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said during a weekend TV interview that the U.S. had no plans to intercept the rocket — though it might consider the move if an "aberrant missile" were headed to Hawaii "or something like that."
> 
> U.S. officials have been keeping tabs on North Korea's launch preparations with satellite imagery and other surveillance. North Korea has complained that the U.S. is also using high-altitude U-2 spy planes and has warned the aircraft would be shot down.
> 
> North Korea's pre-launch movements are similar to the steps taken in advance of its 2006 firing of a Taepodong-2 missile, the U.S. intelligence official said.
> The fueling starts an informal pre-launch phase that precedes the formal countdown.
> 
> "You need to launch within a few days because rocket fuel is typically quite corrosive," said Jeffrey Lewis, an arms control expert at the New America Foundation in Washington, D.C.
> 
> U.S. intelligence analysts continue to believe that North Korea aims to launch a communications satellite rather than conducting a missile test, which would violate a U.N. resolution. However, the rocket launch would yield data directly applicable to its long-range ballistic missile program.
> 
> The issue was top of the agenda Thursday when Obama met with his South Korean counterpart, Lee Myung-bak, on the sidelines of the G-20 summit in London. Obama pledged to push for "peace and stability," while Lee's office issued a statement saying the two leaders agreed to keep working on a verifiable dismantling of North Korea's worrisome nuclear programs.
> 
> Russia appeared to be edging closer to Washington's position in an apparent show of goodwill. But a strong united response likely would prove difficult given that China — the North's closest ally — has veto power in the Security Council. Beijing continued to urge all sides to show restraint.
> 
> North Korea is warning against any effort to intercept the rocket, take the issue to the Security Council or even monitor the launch. It says its armed forces are at a high level of combat-readiness.
> 
> Debris from the rocket could fall off Japan's northern coast, North Korea has said. Tokyo has deployed warships and missile interceptors there as a precaution, but says it has no intention of trying to shoot the missile down on its own.
> ___
> 
> Associated Press writers Hyung-jin Kim and Jae-Soon Chang in Seoul, Mark S. Smith in London, Shino Yuasa in Tokyo, Mari Yamaguchi in Akita, Japan, John Heilprin and Robert Burns in New York and Pamela Hess and Matthew Lee in Washington contributed to this report.


----------



## CougarKing

And North Korea continues to make threats as the launch date grows nearer. Do any of you really think the DPRK/North Korea has the ability to hit Japan, whether with airpower or Scuds?  ???

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/afp/090402/world/nkorea_missile



> *NKorea vows to attack Japan if rocket intercepted*
> 
> Thu Apr 2, 3:56 PM
> 
> SEOUL (AFP) - *North Korea's military threatened Thursday to attack "major targets" in Japan if Tokyo tries to shoot down a satellite it intends to launch as soon as this weekend.
> 
> "If Japan recklessly 'intercepts' the DPRK's (North's) satellite for peaceful purposes, the KPA will mercilessly deal deadly blows not only at the already deployed intercepting means but at major targets," said a statement from the Korean People's Army (KPA).*
> 
> Japan, South Korea and the United States see the North's plan to launch a communications satellite some time between *April 4 and 8* as a disguised test of a Taepodong-2 ballistic missile which could in theory reach Alaska or Hawaii.
> 
> *US defence officials said Thursday they had detected "propellant activity" at a North Korea rocket, but said it was uncertain that Pyongyang had begun fuelling ahead of its planned launch.*
> 
> A US defence official speaking on condition of anonymity told AFP "it's ambiguous" if North Korea has begun fuelling the rocket.
> 
> (...)
> 
> Pyongyang has said that even a UN discussion of its launch -- let alone new sanctions -- would trigger the breakdown of international nuclear disarmament talks.
> 
> UN resolutions bar Pyongyang from missile-related activities.
> 
> However, the North has signed on to international space treaties and analysts believe China and Russia would block any new sanctions move on the grounds that the resolutions do not cover satellite launches.
> 
> Moscow urged North Korea's neighbours on Thursday to hold back from military action over the issue.
> 
> Meanwhile Taiwan called on North Korea to exercise restraint in launching the rocket, saying the plan had threatened peace in the region.
> 
> "As a member of Northeast Asia, we're very concerned about it," the country's foreign ministry said in a statement.


----------



## tomahawk6

Yes they have the means to strike all of the ROK and Japan with their missiles.


----------



## Sonnyjim

They easily have the ability to hit Japan with missiles and their limited airpower initially. Their airpower would be taken out quite simply as well as what little naval power they have as well. Unless this Taepo Dong-2 is recognized as a coverup with a nuke on it(which I doubt it is altohough there is a blanket over the missle right now so we can't see) or the missile looks as though it may fall on Japan, I think it will go untouched after the launch. The US and allies are not willing to risk an all out conventional war with North Korea knowing the initial devastating effects, with the current military situation in Iraq and Afghanistan, over a missile test which they have already done many of times. The United States' only safe bet with their current situation right now is to appease the DPRK as they have for the past few decades. I guess we'll see what will happen in 2-6 more days. I know I'll be checking the news as I have been for the last 8 years following this situation closely.


----------



## CougarKing

Another update- at least we now know a possible launch time.   



> _*Report: NKorea fueling rocket for impending launch (3:02 p.m.)*_
> 
> SEOUL, South Korea -- North Korea has begun fueling a long-range rocket for an impending launch, a news report said Thursday, as President Barack Obama warned the liftoff would be a "provocative act" that would generate a U.N. Security Council response.
> 
> North Korea says it will send a communications satellite into orbit on a multistage rocket sometime from Saturday to Wednesday. The U.S., South Korea and Japan think the reclusive country is using the launch to test long-range missile technology; they've warned the move would violate a Security Council resolution banning the North from ballistic activity.
> 
> *Regional powers have also begun to deploy ships to monitor the launch, and Japan is preparing to intercept any debris that might fall if the launch goes awry - moves that have prompted several threats of retaliation from Pyongyang, including one Thursday. *
> 
> Meanwhile, CNN television said on its Web site that Pyongyang has started to fuel the rocket. The report, citing an unidentified senior U.S. military official, said the move indicates final preparations for the launch. Experts say the missile can be fired about three to four days after fueling begins.
> 
> Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Takeo Kawamura said the U.S. and Japanese governments have not confirmed that fueling has begun. South Korea's Defense Ministry declined to comment on the report.
> 
> *Obama denounced the planned launch as "a provocative act" and a breach of the U.N. resolution while speaking with Chinese President Hu Jintao on the sidelines of the G-20 summit in London on Wednesday, according to the White House Web site.*
> 
> Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton urged the North to reconsider the launch, saying: "There will obviously be consequences if they do proceed with this."
> 
> The North countered with its own warnings against any efforts to intercept the rocket, take the issue to the Security Council or even monitor the launch. It says its armed forces are at a high level of combat-readiness.
> 
> *The North has said debris from the rocket could fall off Japan's northern coast, so Tokyo has deployed battleships with anti-missile systems to the area and set up Patriot missile interceptors. It says it has no intention of trying to shoot down the rocket itself.
> 
> "If Japan imprudently carries out an act of intercepting our peaceful satellite, our people's army will hand a thunderbolt of fire to not only interceptor means already deployed, but also key targets," said a report Thursday by the North's official Korean Central News Agency that quoted the general staff of its military.*
> 
> In what appeared to be a reference to American warships that have reportedly set sail to monitor the launch, the Korean-language version of the KCNA report said: "The United States should immediately withdraw armed forces deployed if it does not want to receive damage."
> 
> *An English version said the U.S. forces could be hit in a retaliatory strike against Japan.
> 
> On Wednesday, the North threatened to shoot down any spy planes that intrude into its airspace.
> 
> South Korea's Chosun Ilbo daily reported Thursday that North Korea has redeployed newer fighter jets along its east coast in a possible indication that the regime was serious about the threat. The report, which had no other details, cited an unnamed government source. South Korea's Defense Ministry said it could not confirm it.
> 
> The rocket issue is expected to be a key topic at Obama's talks with South Korean President Lee Myung-bak on Thursday. Lee has sought to drum up support from world leaders in London for punishing its neighbor if the launch goes forward.
> 
> In Washington, U.S. lawmakers are urging Obama to shoot down the rocket if it endangers the United States or its allies. But U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said in a TV interview aired Sunday that the U.S. had no plans to intercept the rocket but might consider it if an "aberrant missile" were headed to Hawaii "or something like that." * (AP)
> http://www.sunstar.com.ph/network/report-nkorea-fueling-rocket-impending-launch-302-pm


----------



## CougarKing

The launch has been delayed so far, though we should stay tuned for what happens next.
 http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/topstories/*http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090404/ap_on_re_as/as_nkorea_missile



> *Wind may have forced NKorea to delay rocket launch*
> Writer Hyung-jin Kim, Associated Press Writer – 2 hrs 56 mins ago
> SEOUL, South Korea – High winds may have forced North Korea to delay its rocket launch, despite the country's insistence Saturday that preparations were complete for the liftoff that many suspect is intended to test the country's long-range missile capabilities.
> 
> *Regional powers deployed warships and trained their satellites on the communist country to monitor what they suspect will be a test for a missile capable of reaching Alaska.
> 
> (...)
> 
> However, the day's stated 11 a.m. to 4 p.m. timeframe passed without any sign of a launch. North Korea had announced last month the launch would take place sometime between April 4 and 8 during those hours.
> 
> Winds reported as "relatively strong" around the northeastern North Korean launch pad in Musudan-ri may have kept the North from launching the rocket Saturday, analyst Paik Hak-soon of the private Sejong Institute think tank said.*
> 
> "North Korea cannot afford a technical failure," he said. "North Korea wouldn't fire the rocket if there's even a minor concern about the weather."
> 
> *Japan again urged North Korea to refrain from a launch that Washington, Seoul and Tokyo suspect is a guise for testing the regime's long-range missile technology — a worrying development because North Korea has acknowledged it has nuclear weapons and has repeatedly broken promises to shelve its nuclear program or halt rocket tests.*
> 
> (...)
> 
> *President Barack Obama said Friday that a launch would be "provocative" and prompt the U.S. to "take appropriate steps to let North Korea know that it can't threaten the safety and security of other countries with impunity."*
> 
> (...)
> 
> The South Korean government urged citizens working at joint economic zones and in Pyongyang to return home because of the "grave" tensions on the peninsula. More than 600 South Koreans left North Korea on Saturday, the Unification Ministry said in Seoul.
> 
> ___
> 
> Associated Press writers Kwang-tae Kim in Seoul, Shino Yuasa in Tokyo, Foster Klug in Washington and John Heilprin at the U.N. contributed to this report.


----------



## Sonnyjim

Seems as though the missile is currently in the air. 

SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korea appeared to launch a rocket on Sunday, the Japanese government said, defying calls from world leaders to scrap a plan that has caused international alarm.


It was not immediately clear if the launch had been successful, or if it was a long-range version of the rocket.


The rocket is supposed to fly over Japan, dropping boosters to its west and east on a path that runs southwest of Hawaii.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/090405/world/international_us_korea_north


----------



## CougarKing

Another update: It seems that the US or Japan have not shot it down from what has been reported so far.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/090405/world/international_us_korea_north



> * North Korean rocket passes over Japan *
> 
> 43 minutes ago
> 
> By Linda Sieg and Jack Kim
> 
> TOKYO/SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korea launched a long-range rocket on Sunday that passed over Japan, the government in Tokyo said, defying calls from world leaders to scrap a plan that has caused international alarm.
> 
> The U.S. State Department confirmed North Korea had launched the rocket but had no further details. South Korea's presidential Blue House would make a statement at 11:00 p.m. EDT, local TV said.
> 
> *Japan said the rocket's second booster stage had splashed down in the Pacific Ocean, indicating the launch had been successful.*
> 
> "The projectile launched from North Korea today appears to have passed over toward the Pacific," the Japan prime minister's office said in a statement.
> 
> *The United States, South Korea and Japan say the launch is actually the test of a Taepodong-2 missile, which is designed to carry a warhead as far as Alaska.*
> 
> (...)
> 
> JAPAN SAYS TOOK NO ACTION AGAINST ROCKET
> 
> 
> Japan's Kyodo news agency said no interceptors had been launched at the rocket and no damage on the ground had been reported.
> 
> 
> Japan had dispatched missile intercepting-ships and anti-missile batteries along the projected flight path.
> 
> 
> Tokyo said it would not intercept the missile but that it was ready to shoot down any debris, such as falling booster stages, that might threaten its territory.
> 
> 
> (...)


----------



## Sonnyjim

Seems like they are going to let this one fly without too many extra sanctions(no pun intended). It's far from, but it's beginning to remind me Churchill appeasing Hitler, letting him build and build until it was too late. Something is eventually going to have to be done, and with an 8 million man army(in total) it won't possible by the people of the DPRK themselves.


----------



## CougarKing

Sonnyjim said:
			
		

> Seems like they are going to let this one fly without too many extra sanctions(no pun intended). It's far from, but it's beginning to remind me *Churchill appeasing Hitler*, letting him build and build until it was too late. Something is eventually going to have to be done, and with an 8 million man army(in total) it won't possible by the people of the DPRK themselves.



Get your history straight. Prime Minister CHAMBERLAIN appeased Hitler, not Churchill. Churchill was his successor and a great man.  Chamberlain was the one who said "Peace in our time" only to see WW2 break out only a year after he let Hitler take the Sudetenland part of Czechoslovakia.


----------



## mariomike

Sonnyjim said:
			
		

> it's beginning to remind me Churchill appeasing Hitler, letting him build and build until it was too late.



Churshill never appeased Hitler.
Churchill, like many airmen, saw rockets/missles ( V1 ) as cowardly weapons launched by men who did not risk their lives in the killing of others. He seriously considered reprisal gas  attacks against Germany, and several Bomber Command squadrons were specially trained to carry them out. Gen Eisenhower was among those who dissuaded him. 
However, Bomber Command was compelled to divert aircraft to the ineffectual counter-offensive against them.


----------



## tomahawk6

From the ArmyTimes.

NORAD: N. Korean rocket launch a failure

The Associated Press
Posted : Sunday Apr 5, 2009 8:58:21 EDT
   
SEOUL, South Korea — Orbit or ocean?

North Korea claims the rocket it sent up Sunday put an experimental communications satellite into space and that it is transmitting data and patriotic songs. The U.S. military says whatever left the launch pad ended up at the bottom of the sea.

North Korea has a history of hyperbole. In creating a cult of personality for its leader, Kim Jong Il, its media rewrote the story of his birth along biblical lines and once said that when he took up golf, he was firing holes-in-one with regularity.

The North’s official Korean Central News Agency said the three-stage rocket “accurately” put a satellite into orbit nine minutes and two seconds after launch. It provided details on an elliptical orbit that it said was taking the satellite around the Earth every 104 minutes and 12 seconds.

“The satellite is transmitting the melodies of the immortal revolutionary paeans ‘Song of Gen. Kim Il Sung’ and ‘Song of Gen. Kim Jong Il’ as well as measurement data back to Earth,” KCNA said, referring to the country’s late founder and his son, the current leader.

“The carrier rocket and the satellite developed by the indigenous wisdom and technology are the shining results gained in the efforts to develop the nation’s space science and technology on a higher level,” it said.

But North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) and U.S. Northern Command officials issued a statement disputing any success.

“Stage one of the missile fell into the Sea of Japan,” the statement said. “The remaining stages along with the payload itself landed in the Pacific Ocean. No object entered orbit and no debris fell on Japan.”

U.S., South Korean and Japanese officials — who monitored the launch from nearby warships and high-resolution spy satellite cameras — have said they suspect the North was really testing long-range ballistic missile technology that could be used to carry a nuclear warhead to Alaska or beyond.


----------



## The Bread Guy

The short & sweet version from NORTHCOM:


> North American Aerospace Defense Command and U.S. Northern Command officials acknowledged today that North Korea launched a Taepo Dong 2 missile at 10:30 p.m. EDT Saturday which passed over the Sea of Japan/East Sea and the nation of Japan.
> 
> Stage one of the missile fell into the Sea of Japan/East Sea. The remaining stages along with the payload itself landed in the Pacific Ocean.
> 
> No object entered orbit and no debris fell on Japan.
> 
> NORAD and USNORTHCOM assessed the space launch vehicle as not a threat to North America or Hawaii and took no action in response to this launch.
> 
> This is all of the information that will be provided by NORAD and USNORTHCOM pertaining to the launch.


----------



## CougarKing

*Mapping the rocket launch 2:30*
CNN's Chris Lawrence uses the magic wall with help from Google Earth to map out the path taken by North Korea's rocket.


----------



## Sonnyjim

Sorry, I meant Chamberlain, wrote that in a rush this morning. However, my main point is this; How much longer is the world going to stand by and allow the DPRK to freely violate International Regulations on their own watch with little slaps on the wrist?

My comparisson to Hitler/Nazi Germany is that they were allowed to violate treaty after treaty and gain a foothold that was too late to break once they were powerful enough. I know that taking over countries(WW2) is different than a missile launch, but I personally do see a parallel. Maybe it's just me. I don't have a degree in Political Science or World Strategy (hence my mixup of Churchill and Chamberlain) so my thoughts are based on what I've seen over the past 8 years and from different books on North Korea and Kim Jong Il (Rogue Regime: Kim Jong Il and the Looming Threat of North Korea by Jasper Becker). If we're going to stand up for the free world we need to be tougher on the DPRK and stop with the wrist slaps.


----------



## karl28

I personally think the rest of the world will just keep letting North Korea do there thing .  Mostly because the rest of the world does not have a stomach for that kind of military campaign .


----------



## OldSolduer

karl28 said:
			
		

> I personally think the rest of the world will just keep letting North Korea do there thing .  Mostly because the rest of the world does not have a stomach for that kind of military campaign .



And I agree. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if a certain Asian with a huge population country had their fingers in this pie.
Plus the fact that the UN is basically hamstrung by the Security Council. North Korea with nukes is like letting your 3 year old play with your assault rifle. Who knows what Kim Jong Il will do, or even if he is alive?

Oh, but we shouldn't shove our beleifs down other poeple's throats, right?


----------



## karl28

OldSolduer
  
           Yeah I think we both know that a certain Asian country has been to involved with N. Korea ever sense the Korean war . How else could N Korea survive .   Sadly nothing will be done till N Korea drops an A bomb on either Soul  or Tokyo(Names of the cities may be spelt wrong I used Spell check but I still think there wrong )  but by than it may be to late to do anything .


----------



## tomahawk6

Launch exposed limits of NKorea military: report 

Tue, Apr 07, 2009
AFP 



SEOUL - North Korea's rocket launch has exposed the limitations of its military with radar unable to track the object far enough, one ship breaking down and a warplane crashing, a report here said Tuesday.

South Korea's JoongAng Ilbo newspaper, quoting intelligence sources, said the communist state had been unable to track the long-range rocket beyond a certain distance.


"North Korea managed to launch a rocket, but Pyongyang's authorities were somewhat disorganised," one source told JoongAng.




It said a ship which set sail for the Pacific to try to locate the rocket debris had to turn back due to mechanical problems.

The paper also said a MiG-21 jet which was scrambled to protect the launch site crashed due to poor maintenance.

Seoul had learned that North Korean officials involved were "busy passing the buck" over the mission's failure, it reported.

"North Korea claimed it successfully put a satellite into orbit but it did not know where the projectile landed. That's because they had no radar capable of tracking it thousands of kilometres away," the conservative paper said.

Seoul's defence ministry declined comment, a spokesman telling AFP that all he could confirm was that North Korean fighter jets had scrambled.

The National Intelligence Service was not immediately available to comment.

Defying international pressure, North Korea fired a rocket Sunday which it said put a communications satellite into orbit.

Critics led by the United States however say it was a disguised long-range missile test, and have referred it to the UN Security Council.

Despite Pyongyang's claims that the satellite is now orbiting Earth, South Korea, Japan, the US military and a senior Russian official say no such object has been detected in orbit.

Foreign analysts have described the launch as a failed test of a long-range missile, saying it appeared the second and third stages failed to separate and caused the rocket to crash into the Pacific short of the designated area.

South Korean experts said the Taepodong-2 missile still travelled for some 3,200 kilometres (2,000 miles) - double the range the North achieved in 1998 with a Taepodong-1 launch.

North Korea's 1.2 million-strong military is the world's fifth largest. But analysts say the impoverished state has problems equipping it and even in some cases feeding soldiers.

Yonhap news agency, quoting an unidentified Seoul official, said a North Korean commercial vessel departed for the Pacific to try to track the rocket and possibly retrieve debris but had to turn back.

"We don't clearly know the mechanical problem that appears to have prevented the ship from sailing on. It likely has to do with outdated parts," the official was quoted as saying. -- AFP

http://news.asiaone.com/News/Latest%...07-133862.html


----------



## OldSolduer

Tomahawk 6 - Dear Leader will be none to happy about that!
He'll be more "ronry" than before....


----------



## Colin Parkinson

A little humour courtesy of SDA

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f0hk9vaqWUg&eurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Esmalldeadanimals%2Ecom%2F&feature=player_embedded


----------



## Sonnyjim

Seems like Kim's son may not be a frontrunner anymore. Mind you I bet this will change a few times before and after Kim's death. 

SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korean leader Kim Jong-il put to rest this week any doubt about whom he sees as his second in command when he elevated his brother-in-law Jang Song-taek to a powerful military post, analysts said on Friday.


Kim, 67, was re-elected to his leadership post at parliament on Thursday but questions about his health, raised by a suspected stroke in August, remained. He cut a gaunt figure at the session and, his hair thinned and graying, walked with a limp onto stage.


http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/090410/world/international_us_korea_north_jang


----------



## CougarKing

And the DPRK military continues to deteriorate when it comes to quality. 



> *2 NKorean fighter jets crashed in recent months*
> AP
> By KWANGTAE KIM,Associated Press Writer AP - Tuesday, April 7
> 
> SEOUL, South Korea - Two North Korean fighter jets have crashed in recent months during training, South Korea's Defense Ministry said Tuesday.
> 
> A North Korean *MiG-21 fighter* went down in March because of a lack of maintenance, said a ministry official. He spoke on condition of anonymity as he was not authorized to speak to the media.
> 
> The official also said another North Korean fighter jet crashed during training in February.
> 
> He had no other details on either crash, including the exact dates and the fate of the crew.
> 
> Both crashes occurred during ongoing tensions on the Korean peninsula.
> 
> North Korea claimed a rocket it launched over Japan on Sunday put a satellite into orbit, though the United States said the payload fell into the Pacific Ocean.
> 
> http://ph.news.yahoo.com/ap/20090407/tap-a...sh-d3b07b8.html


----------



## Yrys

Key nations 'agree N Korea draft', 11 April 2009
_Key UN countries have agreed a draft statement 
condemning North Korea's rocket launch, diplomats 
say._


 N Korea to boycott nuclear talks, 14 April 2009

North Korea has said it will boycott talks over its nuclear programme in protest at UN criticism 
of its recent rocket launch, says state media. Pyongyang said the talks over ending its weapons 
programme were "useless". North Korea also said it would restart nuclear facilities it had begun 
to dismantle under an international deal.

The move comes hours after the UN Security Council unanimously condemned the launch, which 
critics say may have been a test for a long-range missile. North Korea says the rocket was 
launching a satellite.

The statement from the North Korean Foreign Ministry said it "resolutely condemns" the UN move, 
which it said infringed on sovereignty and "severely debases" North Koreans. "There is no need for 
the six-party talks any more. We will never again take part in such talks and will not be bound by 
any agreement reached at the talks," it said. The ministry said North Korea would "strengthen its 
nuclear deterrent for its defence by all means".

*Setbacks*

In a statement on Monday, the 15-member council unanimously condemned the long-range rocket 
launch on 5 April and said it would tighten sanctions against Pyongyang in its wake. The council 
also ordered the UN Sanctions Committee to begin enforcing both financial sanctions and an existing 
arms embargo against North Korea. There had been hope that the unified statement could pave the 
way for a return to the talks.

North Korea had previously threatened that any criticism of the rocket launch would cause it to walk 
away from the negotiating table.

The BBC's John Sudworth in Seoul says the Foreign Ministry's statement is very strong, but there have 
been various setbacks over the six years that the talks have been taking place. There will be many in 
the diplomatic community who believe there is still room for negotiation and that North Korea can be 
persuaded to return, says our correspondent.


----------



## Sonnyjim

Deja vu anybody?


----------



## OldSolduer

I guess "Hans Brix" will have to inspect some more! ;D


----------



## Antoine

Doesn't look good. Hopfully the North Korean will not take advantage of the Obama diplomatic strategy. Also, they might have a numbers of submarines (exact numbers and submarines qualities depend on the source of information I have found). I hope they are not planning to load them with nuclear weapon, but I have no information to state so, I just hope they will not!

Well again a reminder that we need to keep financing our CF decently despite the bad economical situation.


----------



## a_majoor

Antoine said:
			
		

> Doesn't look good. Hopfully the North Korean will not take advantage of the Obama diplomatic strategy.



Why not; everyone else is!


----------



## Yrys

[N Korea orders UN inspectors out

North Korea has ended co-operation with UN nuclear 
inspectors and ordered them to leave the country, 
the International Atomic Energy Agency says. 

Pyongyang told the IAEA to remove seals and equipment 
from the Yongbyon reactor and said that it would reactivate 
its nuclear facilities, the watchdog said. 

The move came after the communist nation said it was 
pulling out of talks on ending its nuclear programme. North 
Korea is angry about a UN statement condemning its rocket 
launch.  Pyongyang says the 5 April launch was aimed at 
putting a communications satellite in orbit. 

But other nations believe it was testing long-range missile 
technology, in violation of a UN resolution banning Pyongyang 
from ballistic missile development. 
...
The US called Pyongyang's decision to withdraw a "serious 
step" in the wrong direction.  "We call on North Korea to 
cease its provocative threats... and to honour its 
international commitments," a White House spokesman said. 

China and Russia, meanwhile, have urged North Korea to 
reconsider its decision, with Beijing calling for "calm and restraint". 

Analysts say the action from North Korea appears to be 
an attempt to test the Obama administration and to force 
it to make fresh concessions. 

North Korea carried out a nuclear test in October 2006.


----------



## Antoine

Yup, my  :2c: that many unfriendly countries are closely watching how Obama is handling the situation with North Korea. We are damn lucky that China seems to surf on a peacefull waves with us to develop their economical growth !


----------



## tomahawk6

Time proven Nork strategy. Create a crisis and milk it for all its worth. Meaning they will make concessions after they get an increase in aid.


----------



## Antoine

Lets hope that the elastic won't break (French expression, I am not sure it is translatable)


----------



## Michael OLeary

More info on the current situation:

*North Korea Expels Monitors, Aims to Restart Nuclear Work *
    * ASIA NEWS
    * APRIL 15, 2009
By EVAN RAMSTAD and DAVID CRAWFORD



> SEOUL -- North Korea said it has abandoned aid-for-disarmament talks and ordered international monitors out of the country, leaving the U.S. and others to figure out a new way to deal with Pyongyang's pursuit of dangerous weapons.
> 
> Coming on the heels of North Korea's latest weapons-related test -- the April 5 firing of a missile-like rocket -- the moves show that Pyongyang can resist international pressure despite its poverty.
> 
> North Korea ordered International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors out of the country, ending global monitoring of a research reactor at Yongbyon and in theory allowing reprocessing of fuel rods to make plutonium.
> 
> The five other nations in the disarmament talks -- China, Japan, Russia, South Korea and the U.S. -- must decide whether to try to restart the process or take a new approach to the North.
> 
> In Washington, White House spokesman Robert Gibbs called North Korea's threat to withdraw from the talks and restart its nuclear program "a serious step in the wrong direction."



More on link


----------



## a_majoor

Other options that should be considered:

http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/its-time-to-strangle-north-korea/



> *It’s Time to Strangle North Korea*
> 
> Posted By Gordon G. Chang On April 15, 2009 @ 12:00 am In Asia, China, Homeland Security, Koreas, US News, World News | 9 Comments
> 
> On Tuesday, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, the abhorrent state run by Chairman Kim Jong Il, [1] said it would restart its plutonium facilities and “never participate” in the six-party disarmament talks. Furthermore, it repudiated all agreements to disarm. The blast from Pyongyang was in reaction to Monday’s [2] statement of the president of the Security Council condemning the April 5 launch of a North Korean missile.
> 
> Pyongyang’s announcement will undoubtedly shake State Department officials and Obama staffers, but Americans made of sterner stuff will welcome the news. As an initial matter, North Korea’s only plutonium reactor, located in Yongbyon, was supplied by the Soviets in the middle of the 1960s. It is well past its useful life. Let the North Koreans restart it if they dare. There is, after all, nothing so delegitimizing as a self-inflicted mushroom cloud, as Chernobyl taught us more than two decades ago. We were generous — perhaps foolish — to have paid Mr. Kim to close Yongbyon down in the first place. And do you think the nearby Chinese are going to allow Kim to create radioactive clouds that will drift toward Beijing?
> 
> Of course, Pyongyang can build new reactors as it announced some time ago. Yet Kim has not made much progress, largely because he does not have the resources to continue their construction. North Korea, now in the fourth year of a downturn, has a gross domestic product so small — about $20 billion — that some buildings in Manhattan boast a larger economy. So let’s see if the Kimster can begin building sophisticated reactors.
> 
> And what about Pyongyang’s threat to permanently shun Beijing’s six-party talks? That promise sounds hollow. But let’s assume, for the moment, that the North Koreans mean what they say. I say the end of the negotiations is a good thing. The discussions, which began in August 2003, made relatively quick progress at first. In September 2005, the six nations — China, North Korea, Russia, Japan, South Korea, and the United States — agreed to a statement of principles. Pyongyang, for its part, committed itself to giving up “all nuclear weapons and existing nuclear programs” and pledged “at an early date” to rejoin the nuclear nonproliferation treaty and submit to international inspections.
> 
> The negotiations predictably broke down over verification of Pyongyang’s promises. To get things back on track, the Bush administration, in one of the most humiliating incidents in the annals of American diplomacy, violated American law in 2007 by transferring back to the North Koreans $25 million in dirty money that had been previously frozen in a Macau bank. By now, it is clear that Kim, in the absence of the threat of force or extreme pressure, will never agree to strict inspections of his nuclear facilities.
> 
> In the absence of verification, Pyongyang’s promises are worthless. Actually, they have been worse than worthless because they have inhibited Washington from thinking of more effective strategies for disarming the militant state. The United States has been directly talking with North Korea since June 1993. Negotiations since then have been bilateral and multilateral, formal and informal. They have been conducted in the capitals of the participants and in neutral settings. Every conceivable format has been tried at least once. Talks have been everything but successful.
> 
> Almost everyone says that diplomacy carries no cost. Yet that is not true. North Korea did not have the bomb in June 1993. Today it does, and its missile program is far more advanced. In short, negotiations have given dangerous despots — Kim Jong Il and his now-departed dad, Kim Il Sung — what they needed most in order to arm themselves: time.
> 
> North Korea, despite its statement yesterday, did not end its participation in the nuclear talks and turn its back on agreements because of the Security Council’s weak criticism. Kim Jong Il, unfortunately, inherited the most militarized nation on earth — and then further elevated the position of the army with his songun, or “military first,” policy. North Korea is unique among one-party states in that the ruling Korean Workers’ Party is subordinate to another institution in society. Kim relied on the generals to consolidate his position after the death of his dad in 1994. Now, he is once again dependent on the top brass as he is in ill-health — recovering from one or more strokes last August — and needs its support for his plans to pass power to one of his sons.
> 
> North Korea has been trying to weaponize the atom since at least the early 1980s and maybe even as early as the mid-1960s. The generals are not going to give up their most destructive weapon just because Foreign Ministry officials have signed pieces of paper with foreigners. We would like to think we live in a rational age where disputes can be settled by conversation in large rooms. Nonetheless, hostile regimes do not always share our vision of international relations.
> 
> Today, there have been the predictable calls for going back to the bargaining table. For example, Harvard’s Hui Zhang [3] contends that we must negotiate because, among other reasons, the North Koreans might sell fissile material or nukes to other countries. Yet while we were talking in Beijing in the six-party context, Pyongyang was transferring nuclear technology to Iran and Syria. The proliferation threat posed by Kim Jong Il is ongoing — and ignored in Washington by both the Obama administration and its predecessor.
> 
> So let’s take the North Koreans at their word, walk away from the talks, and strangle their horrible regime. It would be better to do this before Chairman Kim — or some renegade colonel — fires a nuclear-tipped missile in our direction. Or helps the Iranians to do the same.
> -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
> Article printed from Pajamas Media: http://pajamasmedia.com
> 
> URL to article: http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/its-time-to-strangle-north-korea/
> 
> URLs in this post:
> [1] said: http://www.kcna.co.jp/item/2009/200904/news14/20090414-24ee.html
> [2] statement: http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=30461&Cr=dprk&Cr1=
> [3] contends: http://www.nautilus.org/fora/security/09030Zhang.html


----------



## R. Jorgensen

/facepalm

North Korea.... why does it still exist? Seriously.


----------



## Michael OLeary

*North and South Korea talks last only 22 minutes*

Article link.



> (CNN) -- Details emerged Wednesday from the first government-to-government talks between the two Koreas in more than a year.
> 
> Tuesday's talks ended quickly -- after 22 minutes -- South Korea's Unification Ministry said.
> 
> The two sides were to discuss business deals tied to the Kaesung Industrial Complex in North Korea, which is run by both nations. The talks broke off after the North Korean delegation refused to discuss the release of a detained South Korean worker, saying he was not on the agenda, according to South Korean officials.
> 
> The South Korean delegation was not able to meet the worker, or learn whether he would be formally charged with a crime, the Unification Ministry said.
> 
> The employee of Hyundai Asan Corp. has been accused of criticizing North Korea's political system and trying to persuade a local worker to defect, according to the Yonhap news agency. Pyongyang has held him at the industrial complex since March 30, the news agency said.
> 
> The South Korea delegation said it would take "stern action that could lead to serious consequences," if the matter were not resolved.
> 
> The brief meeting between North and South follows the recent test launch of a long-range rocket by North Korea.
> advertisement
> 
> The launch was condemned by the U.N. Security Council as a violation of a resolution banning ballistic missile testing. North Korea later expelled U.S. nuclear experts and U.N. nuclear inspectors, ended six-party talks and said it would reactivate all its nuclear facilities.
> 
> The six-party talks -- involving China, Japan, North Korea, Russia, South Korea and the United States -- are aimed at disarming the North of nuclear weapons.


----------



## CougarKing

Michael O'Leary said:
			
		

> *North and South Korea talks last only 22 minutes*



Maybe the diplomats realized they were late for watching the concert of the South Korean girl group Wonder Girls, who had held a concert aboard the ROKN assault carrier DOKDO. ;D


----------



## Red Hackle

The top US commander in South Korea said on Wednesday that North Korea has the world's largest artillery force and could rain fire on Seoul should the communist state decide to provoke all-out conflict. 
General Walter Sharp's comments came amid rising tensions on the peninsula. 

Last Saturday the North's military reminded South Korea that its densely populated capital is "only 50 km away" from the border. 


Sharp, commander of some 28,500 US troops in South Korea, said the North has "an old but very large military that is positioned in a very dangerous place, very close" to South Korea. 

"They have a very large special operating force. It has the world's largest artillery force that is positioned as far south as possible and that can rain on Seoul today," he told local business leaders. 

The North maintains 80,000 special forces and is believed to have some 13,000 artillery pieces deployed along the border, Sharp said. 

Cross-border relations are at their worst in a decade after South Korean President Lee Myung-Bak abandoned his predecessors' policy of providing almost unconditional aid to the North. 

Pyongyang is also angry at Seoul's announced intention to join a US-led initiative against shipments of weapons of mass destruction. 

It says any move by its neighbour to join the Proliferation Security Initiative would be seen as a declaration of war. 

Sharp said US and South Korean troops are prepared to "fight and win" at any moment, stressing they "have operational plans prepared in order to be able to meet any contingencies


----------



## CougarKing

Another update:



> *Kim Jong Il's son elevated to defense post*
> Updated April 27, 2009 10:50 AM
> 
> 
> SEOUL (AP) – North Korean leader Kim Jong Il's youngest son has reportedly been named to the powerful National Defense Commission, an appointment analysts said indicates the 26-year-old is being groomed to take power.
> 
> Kim Jong Un speaks English, likes basketball — and is said to look and act just like his father.
> The reclusive, nuclear-armed communist nation's next leader has been the focus of intense media speculation since Kim, 67, reportedly suffered a stroke last summer.
> 
> Kim has ruled with absolute authority since his father, Kim Il Sung, died in 1994, leading to the communist world's first hereditary power succession.
> 
> Kim Jong Il has allowed no opposition, raising concerns about a power struggle if he dies suddenly without naming a successor.
> 
> The eccentric leader has three known sons by two women. The oldest, Kim Jong Nam, was long considered his favorite — until he tried to sneak into Japan using a fake Dominican passport and visit Tokyo's Disney resort in 2001.
> 
> The middle son, Kim Jong Chol, apparently has never been a favorite as a possible leader. Kim Jong Il's former sushi chef says in a 2003 memoir that the leader considers his second son "girlish."
> 
> But talk about the youngest son has been growing. On Sunday, South Korea's Yonhap news agency reported Kim Jong Un was assigned to a low-level post at the defense commission, the top government body, several days before his father was reappointed as the commission's chairman on April 9.
> 
> That reappointment marked the first major public appearance for the "Dear Leader" after his reported stroke. He was gaunter, grayer.
> 
> Yonhap, citing unidentified sources it says are privy to North Korea affairs, said Kim Jong Un's appointment means he has embarked on his training as successor and is expected to move step by step into the commission's higher-level posts.
> 
> South Korea's Unification Ministry and the National Intelligence Service said they cannot confirm the report.
> 
> Little is known about Kim Jong Un. The former sushi chef, Kenji Fujimoto, says in his memoir that the son looks and acts just like his father.
> 
> The teen studied at the International School of Bern in Switzerland, a short walk from the North Korean embassy, where classes are taught in English and many students come from diplomatic families.
> 
> A recent article in the French-speaking weekly L'Hebdo described Kim Jong Un as a shy student enrolled under the name of Chol Pak, who enjoyed team sports like basketball, went skiing with friends on Fridays and admired Michael Jordan and Jean-Claude Van Damme.
> 
> "He had a lot of friends among the children of American diplomats," the school's past director, David Gatley, told L'Hebdo.
> 
> Kim Jong Il believes his youngest son has "charismatic leadership" like him, said Cheong Seong-chang, a senior analyst at the security think tank Sejong Institute.
> Cheong said Kim Jong Il's health problems would speed up his naming an heir.
> 
> But Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies, disagreed, saying Kim Jong Il is believed to be focusing more on consolidating his support base rather than appointing his successor, which would quickly erode his power and "worsen his health condition."
> 
> US and its allies have pressured Kim's communist regime for years to give up its nuclear and missile development programs. The standoff intensified after the North's April 5 launch of a rocket it called a satellite. Regional powers argued it was a test of advanced missile technology.
> 
> The UN condemned the launch. In response, the North pledged to boycott six-nation nuclear talks, expelled international nuclear monitors and reactivated its facilities to harvest plutonium for atomic weapons.


----------



## CougarKing

Here we go again. The DPRK wants some attention.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/090507/world/international_us_korea_north_test



> North Korea seen readying for new nuclear test
> Module body
> 
> 2 hours, 46 minutes ago
> 
> SEOUL (Reuters) - There is increased activity at North Korea's known nuclear test site, a South Korean news report said on Thursday, suggesting Pyongyang is gearing up for a new test as it has threatened in response to tightened U.N. sanctions.
> 
> ADVERTISEMENT
> 
> Impoverished North Korea, whose only nuclear test in October 2006 led to U.N. financial and trade sanctions, could be ready to test another nuclear device in a matter of weeks, experts have said.
> 
> 
> "Underground nuclear tests are hard to predict and you can't tell when exactly a nuclear test would be possible, but we think the North is ready to conduct a test in a near future if it wants to," the Chosun Ilbo daily quoted a government source as saying.
> 
> 
> South Korean authorities are monitoring increased and steady activity at the Phunggye-ri site in the North Hamgyong province where the North conducted the 2006 test, the newspaper said.
> 
> 
> The North also appears to have stepped up construction at a new long-range missile launch site in the west that had been expected originally to be completed by the end of the year, the government source was quoted as saying.
> 
> 
> South Korea's Foreign Ministry and the spy agency declined to comment on the report.
> 
> 
> Last week, the North threatened a new nuclear test unless the U.N. Security Council apologized and withdrew the sanctions, tightened after it launched a long-range rocket in April.
> 
> 
> Analysts say North Korea wants to play out its test preparations, many of which can be seen by U.S. spy satellites, for as long as possible to increase leverage in negotiations aimed at ending its efforts to build a nuclear arsenal.
> 
> 
> Talks among six countries, which also include South Korea, Japan, China and Russia, have been deadlocked over disagreement on how to inspect the North's nuclear arms program and how to compensate Pyongyang for dismantling it.
> 
> 
> Experts said the North's first nuclear test in 2006 was only a partial success because the strength of the blast was relatively low, indicating problems with the weapons design or the fissile material at its core.
> 
> 
> (Reporting by Jack Kim; Editing by David Fox)


----------



## dapaterson

From the Wall Street Journal, a tale of people who in their free time have compiled a comprehensive list and map of North Korea and its installations

Full article: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124295017403345489.html



> SEOUL -- In the propaganda blitz that followed North Korea's missile launch last month, the country's state media released photos of leader Kim Jong Il visiting a hydroelectric dam and power station.
> 
> Images from the report showed two large pipes descending a hillside. That was enough to allow Curtis Melvin, a doctoral candidate at George Mason University in suburban Virginia, to pinpoint the installation on his online map of North Korea.
> 
> Mr. Melvin is at the center of a dozen or so citizen snoops who have spent the past two years filling in the blanks on the map of one of the world's most secretive countries. Seeking clues in photos, news reports and eyewitness accounts, they affix labels to North Korean structures and landscapes captured by Google Earth, an online service that stitches satellite pictures into a virtual globe. The result is an annotated North Korea of rocket-launch sites, prison camps and elite palaces on white-sand beaches.
> 
> "It's democratized intelligence," says Mr. Melvin.
> 
> More than 35,000 people have downloaded Mr. Melvin's file, North Korea Uncovered. It has grown to include thousands of tags in categories such as "nuclear issues" (alleged reactors, missile storage), dams (more than 1,200 countrywide) and restaurants (47). Its Wikipedia approach to spying shows how Soviet-style secrecy is facing a new challenge from the Internet's power to unite a disparate community of busybodies.



North Korea Uncovered: http://bbs.keyhole.com/ubb/ubbthreads.php?ubb=showthreaded&Number=861907&site_id=1#import


----------



## Michael OLeary

Shared IAW fair dealings, etc., etc.



> Reports:* NKorea may have conducted nuclear test*
> 
> 1 hour ago
> 
> SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — *South Korean media are reporting that North Korea may have conducted a nuclear test.*
> 
> YTN television is citing an unnamed government official and the Yonhap news agency cites a ruling party member as saying the nuclear test may have occured Monday morning.
> 
> South Korean President Lee Myung-bak has convened an emergency meeting.
> 
> Copyright © 2009 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.



Realyed articles at link.


----------



## Michael OLeary

> *North Korea Says It Conducts Successful Nuclear Test (Update1)*
> 
> Article link
> 
> By Bomi Lim
> 
> May 25 (Bloomberg) -- North Korea said it conducted a “successful” nuclear test today, carrying out a threat made last month after the United Nations condemned the communist country’s ballistic missile launch.
> 
> “The current nuclear test was safely conducted on a new higher level in terms of its explosive power and technology,” the official Korean Central News Agency said in a statement. It was the second time Kim Jong Il’s regime detonated a nuclear device. The first was in 2006.
> 
> A magnitude 4.7 earthquake was recorded in northeastern North Korea at 9:54 a.m. local time today, the U.S. Geological Survey said on its Web site. The quake struck 10 kilometers (6 miles) below the surface about 375 kilometers northeast of Pyongyang.
> 
> A USGS duty officer said agency seismologists couldn’t determine what caused the release of energy.
> 
> To contact the reporter on this story: Bomi Lim in Seoul at blim30@bloomberg.net
> Last Updated: May 24, 2009 23:25 EDT


----------



## Sonnyjim

Any thoughts on this latest news? Is it possible to put together a nuclear bomb in less than 4 months? They just put together their Yong Byong reactor recently, which seems 'to me' like they had been making a second one all along all the while being falsely cooperative. I'm no expert on this subject, just highly interested.


----------



## CougarKing

Sonnyjim said:
			
		

> Any thoughts on this latest news? Is it possible to put together a nuclear bomb in less than 4 months? They just put together their Yong Byong reactor recently, which seems 'to me' like they had been making a second one all along all the while being falsely cooperative. I'm no expert on this subject, just highly interested.



Here's one thought: It seems Kim Jong Il and his regime are really asking for it.  They seem to just really want to escalate this whole situation even further.  

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090526/ap_on_re_as/as_koreas_nuclear




> By HYUNG-JIN KIM, Associated Press Writer Hyung-jin Kim, Associated Press Writer – 12 mins ago
> SEOUL, South Korea – North Korea reportedly tested two more short-range missiles Tuesday, a day after detonating a nuclear bomb underground, pushing the regime further into a confrontation with world powers despite the threat of U.N. action.
> 
> Two missiles — one ground-to-air, the other ground-to-ship — with a range of about 80 miles (130 kilometers) were test-fired from an east coast launchpad, South Korea's Yonhap news agency reported, citing an unidentified government official.
> 
> Pyongyang also warned ships to stay away from waters off its western coast this week, a sign it may be gearing up for more missile tests, South Korea's coast guard said.
> 
> North Korea is "trying to test whether they can intimidate the international community" with its nuclear and missile activity, said Susan Rice, U.S. ambassador to the United Nations.
> 
> "But we are united, North Korea is isolated and pressure on North Korea will increase," Rice said. On Monday, President Barack Obama assailed Pyongyang, accusing it of engaging in "reckless" actions that have endangered the region, and the North accused Washington of hostility.
> 
> Wall Street was lower in early trading as North Korea's actions kept investors on edge.
> 
> North Korea appeared to be displaying its might following its underground atomic test that the U.N. Security Council condemned as a "clear violation" of a 2006 resolution banning the regime from developing its nuclear program.
> 
> France called for new sanctions, while the U.S. and Japan pushed for strong action against North Korea for testing a bomb that Russian officials said was comparable in power to those dropped on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in World War II.
> 
> China said it "resolutely opposed" North Korea's test and urged Pyongyang to return to talks on ending its atomic programs.
> 
> Russia, once a key backer of North Korea, condemned the test. Moscow's U.N. Ambassador Vitaly Churkin, the current Security Council president, said the 15-member council would begin work "quickly" on a new resolution.
> 
> But many questioned whether new punishment would have any effect on a nation already penalized by numerous sanctions and clearly dismissive of the Security Council's jurisdiction.
> 
> "I agree that the North Koreans are recalcitrant and very difficult to hold to any agreement that they sign up to," Britain's ambassador to the U.N., John Sawers, told the British Broadcasting Corp. "But there is a limited range of options here."
> 
> U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said he felt "frustrated by the lack of progress in the denuclearization process" and said North Korea's only viable option was to return to the six-party talks on disarmament, and continue exchanges and cooperation with South Korea.
> 
> Ban, on a visit to Finland, declined to comment on possible further sanctions.
> 
> "I leave it to the Security Council members what measures they should take," said Ban, a South Korean who once participated in international negotiations aimed at dismantling North Korea's nuclear program.
> 
> South Korea said it would join a maritime web of more than 90 nations that intercept ships suspected of spreading weapons of mass destruction — a move North Korea warned would constitute an act of war.
> 
> North Korea's nuclear test raises worries that it could act as a facilitator of the atomic ambitions of other nations and potentially even terrorists.
> 
> Its test of a long-range missile in July 2006 and its first nuclear test in October 2006 drew stiff sanctions from the Security Council and orders to refrain from engaging in ballistic missile-related activity and to stop developing its nuclear program.
> 
> South Korean spy chief Won Sei-hoon had told lawmakers earlier Tuesday that a missile test was likely, according to the office of Park Young-sun, a legislator who attended the closed briefing.
> 
> Yonhap reported that North Korea was preparing to launch a third missile from a west coast site, again citing an unidentified official. It also reported that three missile tests were conducted Monday.
> 
> North Korea had threatened in recent weeks to carry out a nuclear test and fire long-range missiles unless the Security Council apologized for condemning Pyongyang's April 5 launch of a rocket the U.S., Japan and other nations called a test of its long-range missile technology. The North has said it put a satellite into orbit as part of its peaceful space development program.
> 
> Monday's nuclear test appeared to catch the world by surprise, but Won told lawmakers that Beijing and Washington knew Pyongyang was planning a test some 20-25 minutes before it was carried out, said Choi Kyu-ha, an aide to lawmaker Park.
> 
> Won said Pyongyang warned it would test the bomb unless the head of the Security Council offered an immediate apology. Russia said the test went off at 9:54 a.m. local time (0054 GMT Monday, 8:54 p.m. EDT Sunday). Won confirmed that two short-range missile tests from an east coast launch pad followed.
> 
> North Korea's neighbors and their allies scrambled to galvanize support for strong, united response to Pyongyang's nuclear belligerence.
> 
> Obama and South Korean President Lee Myung-bak "agreed that the test was a reckless violation of international law that compels action in response," the White House said in a statement after the leaders spoke by telephone. They also vowed to "seek and support a strong United Nations Security Council resolution with concrete measures to curtail North Korea's nuclear and missile activities."
> 
> Obama also spoke with Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso, the White House said, with the leaders agreeing to step up coordination with South Korea, China and Russia. Obama reiterated the U.S. commitment to defend both South Korea and Japan, U.S. and South Korean officials said.
> 
> North Korea responded by accusing the U.S. of hostility, and said its army and people were ready to defeat any American invasion.
> 
> "The current U.S. administration is following in the footsteps of the previous Bush administration's reckless policy of militarily stifling North Korea," the North's main Rodong Sinmun newspaper said in commentary carried by the country's official Korean Central News Agency.
> 
> In Japan, the lower house of parliament quickly passed an unanimous resolution condemning the test and demanding that North Korea give up its nuclear program, a house spokeswoman said.
> 
> "This reckless act, along with the previous missile launch, threatened peace and stability in the region, including Japan," the resolution said.
> 
> "North Korea's repeated nuclear tests posed a grave challenge to international nuclear nonproliferation," it said. "Japan, the only nation to suffer atomic attacks, cannot tolerate this." Japan is considering tightening sanctions against North Korea, the statement said.
> 
> Russia called the test a "serious blow" to efforts to stop the spread of nuclear weapons and suspended a Russia-North Korean intergovernmental trade and economic commission, apparently in response to the test. The slap on the wrist was a telling indication that Moscow, once a key backer of North Korea, was unhappy with Pyongyang.
> 
> Seoul reacted to the nuclear test by signing on to the U.S.-led Proliferation Security Initiative, joining 94 nations seeking to intercept ships suspected of carrying nuclear, chemical and biological weapons, materials to make them, or missiles to deliver them.
> 
> North Korea for years has warned the South against joining the blockade. The Rodong Sinmun last week said South Korea's participation would be "nothing but a gambit to conceal their belligerence and justify a new northward invasion scheme."
> 
> Joining the PSI would end in Seoul's "self-destruction" it said.
> 
> In Beijing, the defense chiefs of South Korea and China held a security meeting Tuesday, and they were expected to discuss ways to respond to the nuclear test, Yonhap quoted a South Korean official as saying.
> 
> ___
> 
> Associated Press writers Kwang-tae Kim and Jean H. Lee in Seoul, Shino Yuasa in Tokyo, Matti Huuhtanen in Helsinki, Finland, and Mike Eckel in Moscow contributed to this report.
Click to expand...


----------



## muskrat89

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,522103,00.html



> North Korea Warns of Military Strike on South After Restarting Nuke Plant
> 
> Wednesday, May 27, 2009
> 
> 
> KCNA via AFP
> 
> 
> SEOUL, South Korea —  North Korea's military says it considers South Korea's participation in a U.S.-led program to intercept ships suspected of spreading weapons of mass destruction tantamount to a declaration of war against the North.
> 
> The communist North's military said in a statement Wednesday that it will respond with "immediate, strong military measures" if the South actually stops and searches any North Korean ships under the Proliferation Security Initiative.
> 
> The statement, carried by the North's Korean Central News Agency, said North Korea no longer considers itself bound by the armistice that ended the Korean War, as a protest over the South's participation.
> 
> South Korea announced its participation in the anti-proliferation program Tuesday, one day after the North conducted a nuclear test.
> 
> North Korea has restarted a weapons-grade nuclear plant and fired five short-range missiles in two days, news reports and South Korean officials said Wednesday, deepening the North's standoff with world powers following its latest nuclear test.
> 
> The missile launches came as the U.N. Security Council debated possible new sanctions against the isolated communist nation for its nuclear test on Monday. Retaliatory options were limited, however, and no one was talking publicly about military action.
> 
> South Korea's mass-circulation Chosun Ilbo newspaper reported that U.S. spy satellites have detected steam coming from a nuclear facility at North Korea's main Yongbyon plant, indicating the North is reprocessing spent nuclear fuel rods to harvest weapons-grade plutonium.
> 
> Its report quoted an unnamed official. South Korea's Defense Ministry and the National Intelligence Service — the country's main spy agency — said they cannot confirm the report.
> 
> The North had said it would begin reprocessing in protest over international criticism of its April 5 rocket launch.
> 
> North Korea is believed to have enough plutonium for at least half a dozen atomic bombs. The North also has about 8,000 spent fuel rods which, if reprocessed, could allow the country to harvest 13-18 pounds of plutonium — enough to make at least one nuclear bomb, experts said.
> Related Stories
> 
> 
> Yonhap news agency carried a similar report later Wednesday, saying the gate of a facility storing the spent fuel rods was spotted open several times since mid-April. The report, also citing an unnamed South Korean official, said chemical-carrying vehicles were spotted at Yongbyon.
> 
> North Korea's military also says it considers South Korea's participation in a U.S.-led program to intercept ships suspected of spreading weapons of mass destruction tantamount to a declaration of war against the North.
> 
> The communist North's military said in a statement Wednesday that it will respond with "immediate, strong military measures" if the South actually stops and searches any North Korean ships under the Proliferation Security Initiative.
> 
> The statement, carried by the North's Korean Central News Agency, said North Korea no longer considers itself bound by the armistice that ended the Korean War, as a protest over the South's participation.
> 
> South Korea announced its participation in the anti-proliferation program Tuesday, one day after the North conducted a nuclear test.
> 
> North Korea test-fired three additional short-range missiles Tuesday, including one late at night, from the east coast city of Hamhung, according to South Korean Defense Ministry spokesman Won Tae-jae. He said the North already test-launched two short-range missiles from another eastern coast launch pad on Monday, not the three reported by many South Korean media outlets.
> 
> More could be planned.
> 
> North Korea has warned ships to stay away from waters off its west coast through Wednesday, suggesting more test flights.
> 
> Details of Monday's nuclear test may take days to confirm. Russian defense officials said the blast was roughly as strong as the bombs dropped on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in World War II and was stronger than North Korea's first test in 2006.
> 
> In New York, U.N. diplomats said key nations were discussing a Security Council resolution that could include new sanctions against North Korea.
> 
> Ambassadors from the five permanent veto-wielding council members — the United States, Russia, China, Britain and France — as well as Japan and South Korea were expected to meet again soon, the diplomats said, speaking on condition of anonymity because the meeting is private.
> 
> The Security Council met in emergency session Monday and condemned the nuclear test. Council members said they would follow up with a new legally binding resolution.
> 
> How far China and Russia, both close allies of North Korea, would go remained the main question.
> 
> Russia, once a key backer of North Korea, condemned the test. Moscow's U.N. ambassador, Vitaly Churkin, also the Security Council president, said the 15-member body would begin work "quickly" on a new resolution.
> 
> Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Ma Zhaoxu also said Beijing "resolutely opposed" the nuclear test. It urged Pyongyang to return to negotiations under which it had agreed to dismantle its atomic program.
> 
> North Korea is "trying to test whether they can intimidate the international community" with its nuclear and missile activity, said Susan Rice, U.S. ambassador to the United Nations.
> 
> "But we are united, North Korea is isolated, and pressure on North Korea will increase," Rice said.
> 
> Diplomats acknowledged, however, that there were limits to the international response and that past sanctions have had only spotty results.
> 
> North Korea seemed unfazed by the condemnation.
> 
> Thousands of Pyongyang residents, including senior military and party officials, gathered Tuesday in a stadium to celebrate the successful nuclear test.
> 
> Choe Thae Bok, a high-ranking party official, was quoted by North Korea's official news agency as saying that the nuclear test "was a grand undertaking" to protect the country against "the U.S. imperialists' unabated threat to mount a pre-emptive nuclear attack and (put) sanctions and pressure upon it."
> 
> North Korea blamed the escalating tensions in the region on Washington, saying the U.S. was building up its forces, and defended its nuclear test as a matter of self-preservation.
> 
> At the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva, An Myong Han, a diplomat from the North Korean mission, said his country "could not but take additional self-defense measures, including nuclear tests and the test launch of long-range missiles, in order to safeguard our national interest."


----------



## tomahawk6

Our inability to get China to restrain Pyongyang has been a dismal failure. The North knows we wont go to war so where do we get some leverage ? I think we need to play the nuclear card with Japan. If and I know its a big IF, we get Japan to announce its intention to become a nuclear power that I think it would be a wake up call for both China and Pyongyang.


----------



## a_majoor

For the question of how long it takes to build a working fission bonb: not long at all. General knowledge exists that would allow me to make a uranium "gun" type bomb given access to materials and sufficient motivation, and I suppose many other people could do that too in theory (many encyclopedias and Wikipedia provide more than enough starting materials for research). 

A plutonium "implosion" type weapon is more difficult, but possible given 1940 vintage technology and enough resources (in the case fo the DPRK, slave labour could be enlisted to do much of the "dirty" work and reduce the amount of time and effort spent on securing "clean" conditions for manufacture and assembly of the physics package).

Most of the non nuclear components could exist stockpiled pre made as well, speeding up the actual assembly process.


----------



## CougarKing

More details on the escalating situation: Pyongyang just declared it is no longer bound by the 1953 Armistice. So does this mean war is imminent?  

Here we go!



> North Korea threatens to attack South if ships searched
> 
> By Jon Herskovitz
> 
> SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korea, facing international censure for this week's nuclear test, threatened on Wednesday to attack the South after it joined a U.S.-led plan to check vessels suspected of carrying equipment for weapons of mass destruction.
> 
> In Moscow, news agencies quoted an official as saying that Russia is taking precautionary security measures because it fears mounting tensions over the test could escalate to war.
> 
> 
> Adding to mounting tension in the region, South Korean media reported that Pyongyang had restarted a plant that makes plutonium that can be used in nuclear bombs.
> 
> 
> North Korea's latest threat came after Seoul announced, following the North's nuclear test on Monday, it was joining the U.S.-led Proliferation Security Initiative, launched under the George W. Bush administration as a part of its "war on terror."
> 
> 
> "Any hostile act against our peaceful vessels including search and seizure will be considered an unpardonable infringement on our sovereignty and we will immediately respond with a powerful military strike," a North Korean army spokesman was quoted as saying by the official KCNA news agency.
> 
> 
> He reiterated that the North was no longer bound by an armistice signed at the end of the 1950-53 Korean War because Washington had ignored its responsibility as a signatory by drawing Seoul into the anti-proliferation effort.
> 
> The U.N. Security Council is discussing ways to punish Pyongyang for Monday's test, widely denounced as a major threat to regional stability and which brings the reclusive North closer to having a reliable nuclear bomb.
> 
> 
> Interfax news agency quoted an unnamed security source as saying a stand-off triggered by Pyongyang's nuclear test on Monday could affect the security of Russia's far eastern regions, which border North Korea.
> 
> 
> "We are not talking about stepping up military efforts but rather about measures in case a military conflict, perhaps with the use of nuclear weapons, flares up on the Korean Peninsula," the source said.
> 
> 
> Russian President Dmitry Medvedev told South Korean President Lee Myung-bak, who called him on Wednesday, that Russia would work with Seoul on a new U.N. Security Council resolution and to revive international talks on the North Korean nuclear issue.
> 
> 
> INVESTOR RISK
> 
> 
> Seoul shares closed lower with traders saying the latest rumblings underscored the risks for investors stemming from troubles along the Cold War's last frontier. The main index has fallen 3 percent this week. The won currency was also down.
> 
> 
> The nuclear test has raised concern about Pyongyang spreading weapons to other countries or groups. Washington has accused it of trying try to sell nuclear know-how to Syria and others.
> 
> 
> The rival Koreas fought two deadly naval clashes in 1999 and 2002 near a disputed maritime border off their west coast and the North has threatened in the past year to strike South Korean vessels in those Yellow Sea waters.
> 
> 
> Analysts say Pyongyang's military grandstanding is partly aimed at tightening leader Kim Jong-il's grip on power to better engineer his succession and divert attention from a weak economy, which has fallen into near ruin since he took over in 1994.
> 
> 
> Many speculate Kim's suspected stroke in August raised concerns about succession and he wants his third son to be the next leader of Asia's only communist dynasty.
> 
> 
> North Korea has been punished for years by sanctions and is so poor it relies on aid to feed its 23 million people, but that has not deterred it from provocations.
> 
> A U.S. Treasury Department official said it was weighing possible action to isolate the North financially. A 2005 U.S. clampdown on a Macau bank suspected of laundering money for Pyongyang effectively cut the country off from the international banking system.
> 
> The secretive North appears to have made good on a threat issued in April of restarting a facility at its Yongbyon nuclear plant that extracts plutonium, South Korea's largest newspaper, Chosun Ilbo, reported.
> 
> "There are various indications that reprocessing facilities in Yongbyon resumed operation (and) have been detected by U.S. surveillance satellite, and these include steam coming out of the facility," it quoted an unnamed government source as saying.
> 
> The Soviet-era Yongbyon plant was being taken apart under a six-country disarmament-for-aid deal. The surveillance had yet to detect any signs that the North, which conducted its only prior nuclear test in October 2006, was again separating plutonium.
> 
> 'GRAND UNDERTAKING'
> 
> North Korea's meager supply of fissile material is likely down to enough for five to seven bombs after Monday's test, experts have said. It could probably extract enough plutonium from spent rods cooling at the plant for another bomb's worth of plutonium by the end of this year.
> 
> Japan's upper house of parliament denounced the test and said in a resolution the government should step up its sanctions.
> 
> North Koreans celebrated, with a rally in the capital of top cadres and military brass, KCNA said.
> 
> "The nuclear test was a grand undertaking to protect the supreme interests of the DPRK (North Korea) and defend the dignity and sovereignty of the country and nation," it quoted a communist party official as saying.
> 
> The North's next step may to be resume operations at all of Yongbyon, with experts saying it could take the North up to a year to reverse disablement steps. Once running, it can produce enough plutonium to make one bomb a year.
> 
> The hermit state has also threatened to launch a long-range ballistic missile if the Security Council does not apologize for tightening sanctions to punish it for an April launch widely seen as a missile test that violated U.N. measures.
> 
> (Additional reporting by Jack Kim, Rhee So-eui and Kim Junghyun in Seoul, Isabel Reynolds in Tokyo and Oleg Shchedrov in Moscow; Editing by Jonathan Thatcher and Bill Tarrant)


----------



## lpfan55

Start digging the bomb shelters?  ??? So does this mean that Norht Korea is now going to start "Flexing their muscles" even more to test reactions?


----------



## Old Sweat

No one knows for sure. However NK has mastered the art of the tantrum, which is not meant to trivialize the threats of a very dangerous regime, knowing that the outside world will then make overtures and offer to talk. The NK government is well aware of the state of the armed forces of its potential foes and that they are heavily engaged in other theatres. I suspect they figure they will be able to extract more at this time by wild threats and insults.

On the other hand, the 56-year long truce may be over. At which point, my vaguely remembered Canadian army drinking songs of the fifties and sixties like "We'll Fight for the 'Good Chap' Sighman Rhee" and "Provost" will be back in vogue.


----------



## Xiang

> More details on the escalating situation: Pyongyang just declared it is no longer bound by the 1953 Armistice. So does this mean war is imminent?



IIRC, that armistice was never officially signed by South Korea anyway, essentially meaning the two halves of the continent have technically still been at war, only without a shot fired in anger.


----------



## CougarKing

Gates is in the region calling for unity among US allies against North Korea.

Seems only reasonable to do if North Korea threatens war.

From AP via Yahoo News:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090528/ap_on_go_pr_wh/us_us_nkorea



> WASHINGTON – *The U.S. on Wednesday accused North Korea of "provocative and belligerent" behavior as Defense Secretary Robert Gates took on the delicate task of reassuring Asian allies of U.S. support without further provoking the communist government.*
> 
> *Gates flew to Singapore for meetings with foreign ministers aimed at a cohesive response* to the North Korean atomic test. Meanwhile, *Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton issued stern statements underscoring the firmness of U.S. treaty commitments to defend South Korea and Japan*, U.S. allies in easy range of the North's missiles.
> 
> Gates' trip to meet with leaders from South Korea, Japan and other Far East nations had already been planned, but U.S. officials said North Korea's bomb and missile tests and heated rhetoric would dominate the discussions.
> 
> *Gates is scheduled to visit the Philippine capital in Manila and will possibly discuss U.S. troop levels stationed there*. He also planned to stop by two U.S. bases in Alaska on his way back to Washington next week.
> 
> (...)
> 
> 
> North Korea is believed to have enough plutonium for at least a half-dozen weapons, but experts say it still has not mastered the miniaturization technology required to mount a nuclear warhead on a long-range
> 
> (...)
> 
> *South Korea had resisted joining the U.S.-led Proliferation Security Initiative, a network of nations seeking to stop ships from transporting materials used in nuclear bombs.* It joined the coalition after Monday's bomb test — a move that North Korea described Wednesday as akin to a declaration of war.
> 
> (...)


----------



## midget-boyd91

Old Sweat said:
			
		

> However NK has mastered the art of the tantrum



I'll admit that I don't have any degrees in international relations or anything like that, but to me, North Korea doesn't really seem to be throwing tantrums.  Personally, I see their little stunts as a way to either:
*A:* Get what they want, in terms of appearing like a superpower. 

*Or*

*B:* The madmen in charge actually want to go to war.

They have been threatening to declare war for years for the smallest things, like boarding/searching a ship bound for NK.  So, I see it as a matter of either calling their bluff, or they are doing everything they can to be able to declare war.

Oddball


----------



## aesop081

uncle-midget-Oddball said:
			
		

> *A:* Get what they want, in terms of appearing like a superpower.
> 
> *Or*
> 
> *B:* The madmen in charge actually want to go to war.



Either way, we should drop one on them before they drop one on us.


----------



## Gunnar

> I see their little stunts as a way to either:
> A: Get what they want, in terms of appearing like a superpower.



When a child throws a screaming hissy fit, he is telling his parents "I'll act like this every time  you try to discipline me, until you learn your place".  Prompt action by the parents usually nips that in the bud, and the child stops throwing tantrums.  If the parent caves, the kid throws a tantrum every time he wants something, because HE is calling the shots.

When North Korea throws a screaming hissy fit, Kim Jong Il (of World Police singing fame) is telling the world super powers "I'll act like this every time you try to discipline me, until you learn your place".  Mealy-mouthed comments by the UN, OR governments that ought to know better just lead him to think that he is in charge.

World politics is really a lot like disciplining a child.  "I want this".  "You can't have it".  "I'll hit you"  "I'll send you directly to bed young man, and don't you dare raise a hand to  your elders".

Option B is just the tantrum-thrower raising the stakes.

I sometimes wonder if the solution to poor politics is proper parenting....


----------



## midget-boyd91

Gunnar said:
			
		

> "I'll act like this every time  you try to discipline me, until you learn your place".
> 
> "I'll act like this every time you try to discipline me, until you learn your place".
> 
> World politics is really a lot like disciplining a child.  "I want this".  "You can't have it".  "I'll hit you"  "I'll send you directly to bed young man, and don't you dare raise a hand to  your elders".



These are where calling their bluff comes into play.  

Little kid/North Korea  "I'm going to declare war if you look in my closet."

Parent/Damn near every other nation: " You're full of bullsh!t. Smarten up, or I'm going to take 'x' away from you."

It's bound to happen eventually, and when it does, the result will either be North Korea folding up in a defensive way and pouting, or they're actually serious and war breaks out.



> Either way, we should drop one on them before they drop one on us.


We've had over fifty years of 'watching' to know where damn near every artillery battery aimed at Seoul is located.... question is, after they're gone, can a one million man army be stopped in less than 70 km? 

(I'm on the same page as you btw. If it's going to happen, we might as well have the upper hand from the get-go)


Oddball


----------



## CougarKing

For those wondering about China's reaction to this whole escalating situation...



> May 28 (Bloomberg) -- China has the ability to cripple North Korea by cutting off shipments of food, fuel, and luxury goods that Kim Jong Il doles out to loyalists. Kim’s nuclear detonation may put that leverage in play and test its impact on the leadership.
> 
> China is increasingly frustrated by North Korea’s defiance of United Nations resolutions designed to curb its atomic and missile programs and is worried that a nuclear-armed government in Pyongyang could spark a new arms race in Asia, analysts and a person familiar with the Obama administration’s policy said.
> Until now, China has rebuffed U.S. and Japanese calls for tougher economic penalties against North Korean leader Kim, agreeing only on narrow UN sanctions aimed at regime-run companies and arms imports.
> 
> “China may be reaching a point of understanding that Kim is going too far,” said Dennis Wilder, a former Asia director for the White House National Security Council.
> 
> Should the Chinese leadership shift against North Korea, it isn’t clear what levers would be used or whether economic clout would translate into political influence over a regime in a possible succession battle, according to the person familiar with administration policy and experts on China and North Korea.
> 
> By normal measures of economic influence, China has overwhelming and growing power over North Korea. China accounted for 73 percent of North Korea’s international trade last year, up from less than a third in 2003, according to the Seoul-based Korea Trade & Investment Promotion Agency.
> 
> Oil, Food
> 
> China supplies 90 percent of North Korea’s oil demand, 80 percent of consumer goods and 45 percent of its food, Dong Yong Seung, a researcher on North Korean issues at the Samsung Economic Research Institute in Seoul, said.
> 
> China didn’t want to use stronger measures in the past out of fear of alienating possible successors to Kim or even sparking the collapse of North Korea, its ally of 60 years, and fomenting a refugee crisis along their 800-mile border.
> 
> An April 5 rocket launch, the May 25 nuclear detonation and subsequent short-range missile tests may lead China to work more closely with the U.S., the person familiar with U.S. policy said.
> 
> China’s foreign ministry said the country “resolutely opposes” North Korea’s nuclear test. On May 25 China agreed with the U.S., Japan and Russia to work toward a UN resolution censuring North Korea for its nuclear test and missile launches.   (....)



http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aiq8iNe42T3g&refer=home


----------



## a_majoor

Counting on China to help out is the fools option; China will do what is best for China's self interest (and leaving the US dangling and inducing fear, uncertainty and doubt into Russia, South Korea, Japan and other Pacific Rim nations can't hurt China's ambitions). Given the speed and ease with which China *could* throttle the DPRK (having essentially all the economic arteries in the palm of their hand) and the fact they have not should tell us something.

In the mean time, the grown ups look for the least worst options:

http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2009/05/inside-americas-mock-attack-north-korea/



> *Inside America’s (Mock) Attack on North Korea*
> By Noah Shachtman  May 27, 2009  |  7:07 am  |  Categories: Army and Marines, Rogue States
> 
> Even the hawks say there’s not much America can do, in response to North Korea’s nuclear test. But that doesn’t mean the U.S. military isn’t prepping for a war with the Kim Jong-Il regime, just in case.
> 
> In March, American and South Korean forces teamed up for the “Key Resolve/Foal Eagle” war game. 13,100 troops from outside Korea — and tens of thousands more, already stationed in the country — participated in the massive exercise, which focused on “deploying troops and equipment to Korea in the event of an attack,” according to a military press release.
> 
> Some U.S. and South Korean commandos made airborne jumps together from a helium blimp; others, from helicopters hovering above the Korea Strait. A third group ran a mock “operation to secure a suspected chemical weapons lab.” Unconventional weapons experts drilled in responding to a simulated strike involving “hundreds of WMD.” Navy helicopter pilots swept for mines, while Marine fighter pilots flew with their South Korean counterparts to “wipe out” simulated enemy aircraft.
> 
> The Americans and their allies kicked all kinds of butt in the exercise, of course. Other war games, testing out the North Korean scenario, didn’t end quite as cleanly. One ran by The Atlantic in 2005 forecast 100,000 or more dead civilians in the first few days. And that was if the U.S. could assemble the half-million to million troops needed for such an assault; none of the participants thought such a staggering number of troops could be gathered together, given all of America’s military commitments around the world.
> 
> *Two years earlier, the Pentagon put together a very different kind of war plan for North Korea — one that didn’t involve ground troops at all. Instead, U.S. forces would lob bombs and missiles and electronic attacks in an instant “global strike.” Even nuclear weapons were considered, as part of the plan.*
> 
> A similar “bolt from the blue” was proposed in a 2005 article for the Washington Post, by former Defense Secretary William Perry and Ashton Carter, who today serves as the Pentagon’s weapons-buyer-in-chief. They proposed taking out a North Korean long-range missile on the launchpad, to prevent the nuclear Kim Jong-Il from test-firing an ICBM. The surgical strike was, of course, never ordered. And the missile itself was kind of a dud.
> 
> In 2003, retired Colonel John Collins ran through the possible moves and countermoves in a military standoff on the Korean peninsula — from blockades to full-out nuclear strikes.  His conclusion: “Any of the U.S. options described above could trigger uncontrollable escalation that would create appalling casualties on both sides of the DMZ and promise a Pyrrhic victory at best. Unilateral actions by the United States without unqualified ROK [Republic of Korea] agreement and willing participation every step of the way would be immoral as well as ill- advised. Inaction while Kim Jong Il develops a robust nuclear arsenal and perhaps supplies nuclear weapons to U.S. enemies, unfortunately, would worsen any future confrontation.”



From a military perspective, crippling the command and control infrastructure then hammering the logistics pipeline would be the "best" options to limit the ability of the DPRK to prosecute or exploit an invasion (I doubt there is the political will to preemptively strike the DPRK), most North Korean units would die on the vine out of contact with the leadership and denied food, fuel and munitions. The mopping up would consume most of the energy and resourses of the Alliance, while China could quietly slip into the DPRK to begin "humanitarian" and "stability" operations.

See also Robert Kaplan When North Korea Falls

Phase One: resource depletion; 

Phase Two: the failure to maintain infrastructure around the country because of resource depletion; 

Phase Three: the rise of independent fiefs informally controlled by local party apparatchiks or warlords, along with widespread corruption to circumvent a failing central government; 

Phase Four: the attempted suppression of these fiefs by the KFR once it feels that they have become powerful enough; 

Phase Five: active resistance against the central government; 

Phase Six: the fracture of the regime; and 

Phase Seven: the formation of new national leadership.


----------



## CANADIAN F0RCES

But do you not think Kim Dong Eel(haha), _would_ start a war seeing as he is more than likely going to die in the somewhat not-to-distant-future. ? just an opinion question. I know it seems he is setting his youngest son up to take over but would he rather trying to go out with a bang?


----------



## CougarKing

Thucydides said:
			
		

> Counting on China to help out is the fools option; China will do what is best for China's self interest (and leaving the US dangling and inducing fear, uncertainty and doubt into Russia, South Korea, Japan and other Pacific Rim nations can't hurt China's ambitions). Given the speed and ease with which China *could* throttle the DPRK (having essentially all the economic arteries in the palm of their hand) and the fact they have not should tell us something.



Very true. However, perhaps it is too early to dismiss a possible PLA intervention into North Korea to serve Bejing's own interests, in the same way that the PLA invaded Vietnam, a fellow Communist country, back in 1979. 

The Cold War context that led to that other invasion definitely does not exist anymore, but as this other article post indicates, Beijing is growing weary of Pyongyang's constant sabre-rattling which destabilizes the region and threatens the PRC's own continued economic prosperity.


----------



## Sonnyjim

A few more updates..... good thoughts cougar daddy on the PLA possibly stepping in, however they may want to play this one out to further strengthen their own ambitions. As for Kim's sucessor it's still up in the air and only speculated. There were the reports as to his son Kim Jong-chul being a successor and then conflicting reports of a possible brother-in law(correct me if I'm wrong) who is high in the government office but not corrupted by the military ranks. Anyways, as for some new updates, Chinese ships are leaving the area and yet another short range missile.

YEONPYEONG, South Korea – North Korea defiantly test-fired another short-range missile Friday and warned it would take "self-defense" action if provoked by the U.N. Security Council, which is considering tough sanctions against the communist regime for conducting a nuclear test.

The North fired the missile from its Musudan-ni launch site on the east coast, a South Korean government official said. He spoke on condition of anonymity, citing the sensitivity of the matter. It is the sixth short-range missile North Korea has test-fired since Monday's nuclear test.

The official did not give further details.

With tensions high on the Korean peninsula, Chinese fishing boats left the region, possibly to avoid any maritime skirmishes between the two Koreas. But U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said the situation was not a crisis and no additional U.S. troops would be sent to the region.

North Korea, meanwhile, warned it would retaliate if provoked...........

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090529/ap_on_re_as/as_koreas_nuclear


----------



## tomahawk6

A PLA intervention however welcome is not very likely. The Chinese would have to govern a bankrupt starving country until they could decide on who would govern the country. Of course the Chinese could then support unification under the ROK and hand the entire mess over to the ROK.


----------



## Edward Campbell

Strange as it may seem there are some principles in policy and, broadly – including the Viet Nam “intervention” – the Chinese have hewed pretty firmly to one of them: *non interference in the internal affairs of others*.

This is one of the founding principles of Red Chinese policy – for obvious reasons. And it remains a primary principle today.

It is one of the few policy principles about which the Chinese leadership talks to its domestic audience and, in my opinion, it enjoys broad public support. When, not too long ago, in China, I had the opportunity to discuss the rather sad situation in Sudan and mentioned that China probably had more influence there than did the USA or UK or, especially, Canada, my Chinese acquaintances told me that while they, too, were distressed by the violence and poverty they felt that it was an internal matter for the Sudanese to settle for themselves and they (the Chinese) ought not to interfere.

While there are good reasons for the Chinese to worry - North Korea threatens some of China’s most important investors - there are also good reasons for China to sit on its hands: North Korea discomfits the USA and its allies, but not even the North Koreans are stupid enough to threaten China.

I think we can, and should, understand why Iran and North Korea want nuclear weapons. Look at the “respect” with which India, Israel and Pakistan are treated. Who would not want to be in the “club?” The Chinese are not, I think averse to an even larger nuclear club.

I have little doubt that very, very senior Chinese officials have warned the North Koreans away from any attacks on anybody. But I can see no reason why China should want to violate a well known and poplar “principle” and interfere, directly, in the business of the sovereign nation of the Democratic People’s Republic Korea (DPRK). I also guess that even more senior Chinese officials have warned America and South Korea away from any precipitous action against the DPRK.

My _quesstimate_: China cares more for South Korea than for North Korea – and the North Koreans know it. China cares more for Japan than for North Korea and the North Koreans know that, too. China is neither threatened nor hurt by the very real problems the DPRK causes for Japan, South Korea and, above all, the USA. There is, therefore, no good policy reason for China to interfere, formally, in the ongoing mess.


----------



## CougarKing

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> Strange as it may seem there are some principles in policy and, broadly – including the Viet Nam “intervention” – the Chinese have hewed pretty firmly to one of them: *non interference in the internal affairs of others*.
> 
> This is one of the founding principles of Red Chinese policy – for obvious reasons. And it remains a primary principle today.
> 
> It is one of the few policy principles about which the Chinese leadership talks to its domestic audience and, in my opinion, it enjoys broad public support. When, not too long ago, in China, I had the opportunity to discuss the rather sad situation in Sudan and mentioned that China probably had more influence there than did the USA or UK or, especially, Canada, my Chinese acquaintances told me that while they, too, were distressed by the violence and poverty they felt that it was an internal matter for the Sudanese to settle for themselves and they (the Chinese) ought not to interfere.
> 
> While there are good reasons for the Chinese to worry - North Korea threatens some of China’s most important investors - there are also good reasons for China to sit on its hands: North Korea discomfits the USA and its allies, but not even the North Koreans are stupid enough to threaten China.
> 
> I think we can, and should, understand why Iran and North Korea want nuclear weapons. Look at the “respect” with which India, Israel and Pakistan are treated. Who would not want to be in the “club?” The Chinese are not, I think averse to an even larger nuclear club.
> 
> I have little doubt that very, very senior Chinese officials have warned the North Koreans away from any attacks on anybody. But I can see no reason why China should want to violate a well known and poplar “principle” and interfere, directly, in the business of the sovereign nation of the Democratic People’s Republic Korea (DPRK). I also guess that even more senior Chinese officials have warned America and South Korea away from any precipitous action against the DPRK.
> 
> My _quesstimate_: China cares more for South Korea than for North Korea – and the North Koreans know it. China cares more for Japan than for North Korea and the North Koreans know that, too. China is neither threatened nor hurt by the very real problems the DPRK causes for Japan, South Korea and, above all, the USA. There is, therefore, no good policy reason for China to interfere, formally, in the ongoing mess.



The principle of "non-interference policy" in the domestic or sovereign affairs of other nations serves only one purpose for China: to ward off other nations from interfering from its own domestic affairs- namely sovereignty issues like Taiwan. The PRC may continually protest when the West or the US intervenes in a situation like the "Operation Allied Force" NATO air strikes on Kosovo, which they argued was a Serbian/Yugoslav domestic problem back in 1999, but that is nothing more than lip service and just more material for Xinhua or CCTV to announce to the masses for public consumption. (And of course the rhetoric became far more heated when the Chinese embassy in Belgrade was hit by a US missile during those same air strikes.)

One can argue, that the concern for PRC's own greater interests and regional/PRC domestic stability will override this "non-interference" policy principle if the conditions are right and China's hand is forced. 

And as for the said intervention possibility, it does not necessarily have to be a ground invasion. Is the PLAAF not working on developing a precision strike capability?


----------



## lpfan55

CDN Aviator said:
			
		

> Either way, we should drop one on them before they drop one on us.



A little pre-emptive maneuvering?


----------



## midget-boyd91

I just caught the tail end of something on NewsNet. Didn't catch the whole story, but it looks like the alert level along the DMZ has been raised. 

Oddball


----------



## Edward Campbell

CougarDaddy said:
			
		

> The principle of "non-interference policy" in the domestic or sovereign affairs of other nations serves only one purpose for China: to ward off other nations from interfering from its own domestic affairs- namely sovereignty issues like Taiwan. The PRC may continually protest when the West or the US intervenes in a situation like the "Operation Allied Force" NATO air strikes on Kosovo, which they argued was a Serbian/Yugoslav domestic problem back in 1999, but that is nothing more than lip service and just more material for Xinhua or CCTV to announce to the masses for public consumption. (And of course the rhetoric became far more heated when the Chinese embassy in Belgrade was hit by a US missile during those same air strikes.)
> 
> One can argue, that the concern for PRC's own greater interests and regional/PRC domestic stability will override this "non-interference" policy principle if the conditions are right and China's hand is forced.
> 
> And as for the said intervention possibility, it does not necessarily have to be a ground invasion. Is the PLAAF not working on developing a precision strike capability?




No arguments from me re: self serving policy. *All* policy ought to be self serving, *all* the time. Policy that serves the interests of others is a waste of time, effort, money and political capital.

The best "answer," for China, is Korean reunification. China wants (South) Korean investment without the bother of starving, backwards, communistic (North) Koreans. War serves no one's interests, as far as I can see.


----------



## old medic

Gates issues warning to North Korea
How Hwee Young / EPA
Secretary of Defense Gates appeared earlier today in Singapore with China's deputy Chief of General Staff Ma Xiaotian. Defense ministers and policy-makers from 27 nations gathered in Singapore for the summit on Asian defense and security.
In a speech in Singapore, the Defense chief says the U.S. will hold Pyongyang 'fully accountable' if it sells or transfers nuclear material abroad.
By Julian E. Barnes
6:32 PM PDT, May 29, 2009
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-gates30-2009may30,0,4747449.story




> Reporting from Singapore -- Drawing the most explicit U.S. line yet on North Korea, Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates vowed that the Obama administration would hold North Korea "fully accountable" if it sold or transferred any nuclear material outside its borders.
> 
> Gates sketched the framework of a new administration policy by saying that though a nuclear-armed North Korea is unacceptable, any step it takes to spread the technology would invite the swiftest and most forceful U.S. response.
> 
> "The transfer of nuclear weapons or material by North Korea to states or non-state entities would be considered a grave threat to the United States and our allies," Gates told officials gathered at an Asian defense summit here. "And we would hold North Korea fully accountable for the consequences of such action."
> 
> Until Gates' speech, the Obama administration's policy to the North Korean nuclear threat was unclear. However, the warning by Gates formed the basis for President Obama's approach, classifying North Korea's ambitions as a security concern for the region but, more seriously, as a proliferation worry for the United States and the rest of the world.
> 
> In the five days since North Korea detonated a nuclear bomb and then launched a series of missile tests, including one Friday, U.S. officials and their allies have reacted by denouncing the regime in general terms.
> 
> But Gates, in his address in Singapore this morning, was more specific, spelling out what action U.S. officials would find most objectionable and subject to a U.S. response.
> 
> He did not specify the potential consequences, but his language hinted at a military reaction by echoing post-Sept. 11 Bush administration warnings that those who harbor terrorists would be "held accountable." Those warnings were followed by a U.S.-led invasion that toppled the Taliban government in Afghanistan.
> 
> Gates' speech also may serve as a message to countries and militant groups that are potential buyers of North Korean weaponry. Past customers are believed to include Iran, Syria, Libya, the militant Lebanese group Hezbollah and others.
> 
> However, Gates' appearance at the annual security conference also had powerful diplomatic overtones. Following his address, Gates was planning to meet with South Korean and Japanese counterparts to discuss security concerns, and he may meet with Chinese officials.
> 
> Those meetings are designed to reinforce U.S. security commitments to its allies and to encourage an expanded Chinese effort to rein in its belligerent neighbor. Gates is being joined in the meetings by Deputy Secretary of State Jacques Steinberg, a top aide to Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and a close White House ally.
> 
> Gates in his address said Obama was open to dialogue with North Korea and had pledged to work with "tyrannies that unclench their fists." But Gates said Pyongyang's response to U.S. overtures was disappointing.
> 
> "The United States and our allies are open to dialogue, but we will not bend to pressure or provocation," he said. "And on this count, North Korea's latest reply to our overtures isn't exactly something we would characterize as helpful or constructive." At the United Nations, officials continued to negotiate a draft resolution calling for the enforcement of widely ignored sanctions imposed following North Korea's 2006 nuclear test. The sanctions include further limits on shipments of arms and luxury goods.
> 
> Meanwhile, international nonproliferation officials said atmospheric tests may be completed next week to determine whether Monday's blast was a nuclear test, as suspected.
> 
> Proliferation of nuclear material by North Korea is hardly a new concern. In recent days, administration officials, including Gates, have voiced concerns about the possibility that Pyongyang could seek to sell its nuclear technology. They have noted that North Korea has a track record of spreading its missile and other weapons technology around the world.
> 
> Gates has played down any imminent threat posed by North Korea, saying Friday that the Obama administration did not consider the weapons tests of the last week a "crisis."
> 
> Gates has said he is in favor of increased U.N.-mandated inspections of North Korean weapons facilities. But the Pentagon is less enthusiastic about searches of North Korean ships against the will of Pyongyang.
> 
> The annual security conference in Singapore, organized by the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, has become a key platform for U.S. Defense secretaries to outline their approach to Asia.
> 
> Gates portrayed the United States as vigorously engaged throughout the region, but with an emphasis both on military security and diplomatic outreach.
> 
> "What we have seen in the U.S. approach to Asia in recent years -- and what I believe we will see in the future -- is a very real shift that reflects new thinking in the U.S. defense strategy overall: a shift toward a re-balanced mix of the so-called 'hard' and 'soft' elements of national power," Gates said.
> 
> In recent years, security conference addresses by U.S. Defense secretaries have been aimed squarely at China. In Gates' address, the call for greater Chinese military transparency and dialogue, often the focus of past speeches, received only a cursory mention.
> 
> The Bush administration often was criticized for eschewing multilateral approaches to security problems. Gates made clear the new administration has no such reservation.
> 
> Challenges such as terrorism, economic turmoil, pandemics and piracy require efforts by groups of nations, he said.
> 
> "What these challenges all have in common is that they simply cannot be overcome by one, or even two, countries," he said, "no matter how wealthy or powerful."


----------



## CougarKing

Double yikes!  

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090530/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/as_gates_asia_security_summit



> Gates: NKorea nuke progress sign of `dark future'
> Associated Press Writers Lara Jakes And Vijay Joshi, Associated Press Writers – 1 hr 25 mins ago
> SINGAPORE – North Korea's progress on nuclear weapons and long-range missiles is "a harbinger of a dark future" and has created an urgent need for more pressure on the reclusive communist government to change its ways, U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Saturday.
> 
> He said the North's nuclear program does not "at this point" represent a direct military threat to the United States and he does not plan to build up American troops in the region. But the North's efforts pose the potential for an arms race in Asia that could spread beyond the region, he added.
> 
> At an annual meeting of defense and security officials, the Pentagon chief said past efforts to cajole North Korea into scrapping its nuclear weapons program have only emboldened it.
> 
> North Korea's yearslong use of scare tactics as a bargaining chip to secure aid and other concessions — only to later renege on promises — has worn thin the patience of five nations negotiating with the North, Gates said.
> 
> "I think that everyone in the room is familiar with the tactics that the North Koreans use. They create a crisis and the rest of us pay a price to return to the status quo ante," he said in a question and answer session after his speech at the Shangri-La Dialogue.
> 
> "As the expression goes in the United States, `I am tired of buying the same horse twice.' I think this notion that we buy our way back to the status quo ante is an approach that I personally at least think we ought to think very hard about. There are perhaps other ways to try and get the North Koreans to change their approach," he said.
> 
> The sharp statements were echoed by the South Korean defense minister and even China, North Korea's strongest ally. They reflect fears throughout the region that last week's nuclear and missile tests by North Korea could spiral out of control and lead to fighting.
> 
> "President Obama has offered an open hand to tyrannies that unclench their fists. He is hopeful, but he is not naive," Gates said in his speech.
> 
> "Likewise, the United States and our allies are open to dialogue, but we will not bend to pressure or provocation. And on this count, North Korea's latest reply to our overtures is not exactly something we would characterize as helpful or constructive. We will not stand idly by as North Korea builds the capability to wreak destruction on any target in Asia — or on us. At the end of the day, the choice to continue as a destitute, international pariah is North Korea's alone to make. The world is waiting."
> 
> The North said it would no longer honor a 1953 armistice truce with South Korea after Seoul joined a 90-plus nation security alliance that seeks to curb nuclear trafficking on the seas.
> 
> Additionally, the U.N. Security Council is drafting financial and military penalties against North Korea as punishment for the weapons testing. Similar penalties approved after the North's 2006 atomic test have been only sporadically enforced, and largely ignored by China and Russia.
> 
> "I think that the combination of their progress in developing nuclear technology, and their progress in developing multistage long-range missiles, is a harbinger of a dark future," Gates said. "What is now central to multilateral efforts ... is to try to peacefully stop those programs before they do in fact become a `clear and present danger,' as the expression goes."
> 
> Gates also warned North Korea against secretly selling its weapons technology to other outlaw nations.
> 
> Later, at what officials called the first-ever meeting among defense chiefs from the U.S., Japan and South Korea, Gates asked his counterparts to begin considering other steps against the North should it continue to escalate is nuclear program. The military leaders did not discuss specific potential actions, but U.S. officials who attended the half-hour meeting said any steps would be taken in self-defense.
> 
> South Korean Defense Minister Lee Sang-hee said the talks "could not have come at a better time."
> 
> "North Korea perhaps to this point may have mistakenly believed that it could be perhaps rewarded for its wrong behaviors," Lee told reporters. "But that is no longer the case."
> 
> Earlier Saturday, Lt. Gen. Ma Xiaotian, the second-in-command of the General Staff of China's military, told the security forum that Beijing "has expressed a firm opposition and grave concern about the nuclear test."
> 
> The Obama administration said it planned to send a delegation on Sunday to Tokyo, Seoul, Beijing and possibly Moscow over the next week to discuss how to respond to North Korea.
> 
> "The reality is that given the objectives of the six-party talks that were established some years ago, it would be hard to point to them at this point as an example of success," Gates said in response to a question after his speech.
> 
> Those countries — the U.S., South Korea, China, Russia and Japan — "need to think freshly about where we go from here."
> 
> ___
> 
> On the Net:
> 
> Shangri-La Dialogue: http://www.iiss.org/conferences/the-shangri-la-dialogue/


----------



## old medic

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article6410160.ece#cid=OTC-RSS&attr=797093

June 2, 2009
Fears mount that North Korea is preparing to attack the South
By Richard Lloyd Parry



> It was obvious that something was up when the Chinese scarpered. One day there were scores of their fishing boats hoovering up the valuable crabs from the richest of the fishing grounds in the Yellow Sea.
> 
> Overnight all but a handful were gone.
> 
> Anywhere else the locals would have been glad to have the crabs to themselves but this is no ordinary fishing ground. A few yards from here is the maritime boundary between South and North Korea. “The Chinese fish here because the North Koreans allow them,” a coastguard official said. “If they’ve gone it’s because they’ve had some kind of warning.”
> 
> An imminent missile launch into the sea? An armed incursion of North Korean ships? A full-scale invasion of Yeonpyeong, the small South Korean island hard up against the maritime boundary? Too much blood has already been shed in these waters for anyone to risk taking any chances, and for the past week South Korea has been dispatching reinforcements.
> 
> No one will discuss numbers for security reasons but sailors and marines, as well as members of the Sea Special Attack Team, the coastguard’s commando force, have been arriving to join the several hundred troops already on Yeonpyeong.
> 
> These waters, around the Northern Limit Line, have become the most tense and dangerous patch of sea in Asia.
> 
> The rest of the world is pondering what to do about North Korea’s underground test of a nuclear bomb eight days ago. Yesterday fresh reports emerged that the nation was transporting its most advanced missile, capable of reaching Alaska, to a launch site. David Miliband, the Foreign Secretary, said that Britain and other members of the UN Security Council were drafting new sanctions against Pyongyang.
> 
> In South Korea the most pressing question is: what next? The nuclear test was just the most alarming in a series of growing North Korean provocations. In April the North launched a long-range rocket over the Pacific, and last week half-a-dozen short-range missiles were fired from launch sites across the country.
> 
> Pyongyang announced on Wednesday that it was pulling out of the armistice agreement that ended the Korean War — and at the weekend satellite pictures revealed that another long-range rocket was trundling towards the launch pad.
> 
> Precedent suggests that if there is still further mischief it may take place here in the Yellow Sea. Twice before, in the past decade, there have been naval battles between North and South off Yeonpyeong island — on both occasions in June during the peak fishing season for blue crab.
> 
> Shin Seung Won, 70, a fisherman from Yeonpyeong, was one of those who witnessed the last confrontation, when South Korea was hosting the football World Cup in 2002.
> 
> Thunderous explosions were heard out at sea. Soon a South Korean naval ship was unloading the bleeding bodies of dead and injured sailors whose patrol ship had come under fire from a North Korean vessel.
> 
> “There was blood everywhere, the sailors were in shock, and one of them had his leg blown off,” Mr Shin says. “It’s impossible to describe my hatred for those commie sons of bitches.”
> 
> Six South Korean sailors died, although they claim to have killed a larger number of Northerners — who had used the pretext of monitoring the Chinese crab-fishing vessels to cross the Northern Limit Line.
> 
> The South Korean Government of the day played down the action out of a desire to avoid derailing its “sunshine policy” of engagement with the North. The current conservative President, Lee Myung Bak, takes a sterner view.
> 
> There seems to be a sense among the security establishment in the South that the country has pussyfooted around the North for long enough and that, with Seoul’s undoubted superiority in equipment, supplies and training, it is time to assert itself. “If they fire two bullets at us we will fire three or four back,” a government official told The Times. “If they fire on us from a shore battery we will take it out.”
> 
> The danger of this is more escalation, and of a skirmish developing into a battle and then a full-scale war.


----------



## CougarKing

> *S. Korea sends ship near North border *
> 
> 
> 
> Agence France-Presse
> First Posted 10:09:00 06/02/2009
> 
> Filed Under: Politics, Foreign affairs & international relations, Nuclear Policies
> 
> 
> SEOUL—(UPDATE2) South Korea deployed a high-speed patrol boat armed with guided missiles close to the volatile maritime border with North Korea on Tuesday as tensions simmered in the wake of Pyongyang's nuclear test.
> 
> The move follows reports that the North has stepped up military drills in the area after threatening a military strike on the South and is preparing to test-fire a long-range missile.
> 
> The South Korean Navy said it was sending the Yoon Young-ha patrol vessel, equipped with ship-to-ship missiles, to the northwestern border area in the Yellow Sea, the scene of past deadly skirmishes between the two Koreas.
> 
> "Compared with North Korean boats, the Yoon Young-ha is armed with overwhelming fire power," a naval spokesman told reporters.
> 
> The South Korean navy will "punish immediately" any North Korean forces attempting provocative acts in the area, he said.
> 
> North Korea's military has reportedly been using high-speed boats for landing exercises near the western border -- twice the site of naval clashes since 1999.
> 
> In the most recent, in 2002, six South Korean sailors died and 18 others were wounded while more than 30 North Koreans were killed or injured. North Korea wants the border to be drawn further south.
> 
> Tensions have been running high since Kim Jong-Il's regime tested a nuclear bomb for the second time on May 25 and then launched a series of short-range missiles and renounced the truce that ended the Korean war in 1953.
> 
> South Korean and US forces on the peninsula are on heightened alert after the North threatened a possible attack in response to Seoul's decision to join a US-led initiative to stop the spread of weapons of mass destruction.
> 
> The North has warned of "self-defense measures" in response to any tougher international sanctions, and US and South Korean officials say that it appears to be preparing to test-fire an intercontinental ballistic missile.
> 
> Washington warned North Korea Monday not to fire a long-range missile, saying it would further worsen tensions.
> 
> State Department spokesman Robert Wood said that a launch would be a "clear violation" of a UN Security Council resolution approved after Pyongyang's first nuclear test, in 2006.
> 
> Two US defense officials told AFP in Washington that Pyongyang appeared to have moved a long-range missile to its new launch site at Dongchang-ri along its northwestern coast.
> 
> But any launch would likely be weeks away given North Korea's technical capacity, said one of the officials, who asked to remain anonymous.
> 
> "It'll take a while for North Korea to put anything together," he said.
> 
> In April the North fired a Taepodong-2 rocket over Japan from another site on the east coast. It said the launch was to put a satellite in orbit but other nations saw it as a disguised missile test.
> 
> South Korean and Southeast Asian leaders Tuesday condemned North Korea's nuclear test as they wrapped up a summit on the southern resort island of Jeju.
> 
> President Lee Myung-Bak and the 10 ASEAN leaders in a statement said the test and recent missile launches were "clear violations" of UN Security Council resolutions and a multi-nation nuclear disarmament pact.
> 
> Diplomats at the United Nations Security Council are discussing a new resolution which could impose fresh sanctions on the North.
> 
> US envoy Susan Rice said there had been progress in talks with her counterparts from Britain, China, France, Russia, Japan and South Korea when they met Monday.
> 
> "I think we are making progress and I am hopeful that in due course we will be producing a very worthy and strong resolution," she said.
> 
> A Western diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the seven were hoping that, after consultations with their respective capitals, they would be able to present a compromise text to the 15-member Security Council on Tuesday.



  The ROKN makes a notable move during all this tension.


----------



## Sonnyjim

As for preparing for a full scale invasion of the South, 'I think' there would need to be bigger signs then a few amphibious assault exercises and some Chinese fishing boats leaving the area. Troop movements along/close to the border will be in my mind a very obvious telltale sign, not some exercises in the NW side close to China. Here is a possible explanation(with these guys we can never know just speculate) as to the reasons for these new developments. 

        0

What's this 
SEOUL (AFP) - North Korea's ailing leader Kim Jong-Il has named his youngest son Jong-Un, a 26-year-old Swiss-educated basketball fan, as heir to his communist dynasty, reports said Tuesday.

ADVERTISEMENT
     
Kim's third son has been described as a "chip off the old block" and is seen by experts as a potentially skilled and ruthless leader, like his father, who has kept his regime in place despite years of famine and economic decline.


There has been intense speculation about who would succeed North Korea's "Dear Leader" since he was reported to have suffered a stroke last August. Kim, now 67, is thought to have since recovered and resumed most of his duties.


South Korea's intelligence services have now received word that he has nominated Jong-Un to succeed him, a South Korean lawmaker briefed by intelligence officials said Tuesday.


North Koreans were reported to already be making pledges of loyalty to Jong-Un and singing songs in praise of "General Kim."

Full Link: http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/afp/090602/world/nkorea_politics_kim_succession


----------



## OldSolduer

Will the son wear those kool glasses like the Dear Leader wears? Damn I gotta get me a set of those!!


----------



## a_majoor

Something a bit more effective than "Smart" diplomacy:

http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/the-us-should-overthrow-kim-jong-il/



> *The U.S. Should Overthrow Kim Jong Il
> *
> Posted By Nicholas Guariglia On June 2, 2009 @ 12:30 am In . Column2 05, . Positioning, Asia, Koreas, World News | 36 Comments
> 
> Things on the Korean peninsula are heating up by the hour. This [1] latest round of nuclear and missile tests should come as no surprise, given President Obama’s non-response to North Korea’s missile provocations several weeks ago. This time, however, Pyongyang detonated a 20-kiloton device — the ground shook 130 miles away — which is an estimated 20 times more powerful than the nuclear bomb North Korea tested in 2006.
> 
> Predictably, the international community bemoaned with platitudinous reprimands — Obama: “gravely concerned”; the United Nations: “deeply worried” — and even more predictably, North Korea responded by [2] threatening war against South Korea, [3] disavowing the 1953 armistice, and [4] swearing to continue production of nuclear weapons. Surprise, surprise.
> 
> What should the United States do? The Obama administration seems satisfied with a continued policy of diplomacy and lethargy. Retired Gen. James Jones, President Obama’s national security advisor[5] claims North Korea is not “an imminent threat.” White House spokesman Robert Gibbs [6] states these actions “won’t get North Korea the attention it craves.” While it is true that North Korea’s escalations often serve the purpose of garnering international attention, the gravity of Kim Jong Il’s behavior should not be downplayed. Each escalation brings with it greater technological advancement and thus a higher likelihood that Kim’s destructive technology will end up in the wrong hands.
> 
> Rather than continue the same bilateral and multilateral diplomacy that has failed since 1994, the United States should adopt a much tougher approach. Three ideas come to mind.
> 
> First, we should reestablish deterrence with a statement or doctrine of “nuclear culpability.” We should say to Kim: “You’ve been caught proliferating nuclear know-how in black market networks and to our enemies in Iran, Syria, Libya, and elsewhere. As long as you continue this behavior, be forewarned: should a nuclear bomb go off in an American city or that of our allies, we will hold you responsible — along with the culprits. We will assume you were involved somehow, either directly or indirectly.”
> 
> This would seriously mess up Kim’s feng shui. It would change all cost-benefit ratios he’s ever concocted inside that tiny, warped brain of his. The little guy is obsessed with maintaining power and by putting him in a position where events would be outside of his control — where he would wake up unsure if someone else’s hostility to the U.S. would lead to his own downfall — we could (and I emphasize could) go a long way in altering Kim’s immediate behavior. This is not a long-term strategy, however: “behavioral change” and “Kim Jong Il” do not belong in the same sentence for any sustained period of time.
> 
> Second, we should broadcast radio transmissions into North Korea. Kim Jong Il tells his “subjects” he was born under a rainbow and walked on the moon. According to widespread rumors, he once held a press conference to claim he invented the toaster oven. He wears high heels. He kidnaps Japanese girls, smuggles them to Korea, and chases them around his palaces. In other words, he’s as clinically insane as he is objectively evil. Imagine Charles Manson taking over a country and producing enough plutonium for a nice personal nuke arsenal. Not a pretty scenario.
> 
> Yet despite all this — despite the dungeons, the meat grinders, the two million dead from famine, and the widespread malnutrition — the North Korean people, having been subjected to decades of brainwashing and indoctrination, still praise and worship the “dear leader” for every waking moment of their lives.
> 
> How could such a nationwide cult-like psychosis be reversed? It would be hard, no doubt, but we should still start a serious reverse-propaganda program of beaming real information into North Korea, similar to Radio Free Europe at the end of the Cold War. We should weaken the tyrant’s rule from within; when done properly, it works almost every time. To paraphrase my friend Michael Ledeen: there are many ways to destroy a dictator when you have his oppressed people on your side.
> 
> Third, we should let Japan go nuclear. Charles Krauthammer [7] recommends this approach, which makes great geopolitical sense. We should encourage the Japanese to amend their pacifistic constitution and start popping out A-bombs like Toyotas. A nuclear Japan is no reason to fret: it is a mature democracy, a loyal ally, and a responsible and civilized society. This isn’t the ’40s anymore.
> 
> Japan’s nuclearization — which should be temporary and stated as such — would likely worry the Chinese enough to compel them to come down hard on their client state. Getting China to turn on North Korea is the real key and a nuclear Japan would certainly do the trick. Should Beijing remain unfazed by Tokyo going nuclear, maybe President Obama could send Don Rumsfeld on another one of those “special envoy” ambassadorships — this time, to the Far East to call China’s bluff on Taiwan.
> 
> Having spent way more time in “diplomacy school” than anyone’s mental health should allow, I can personally attest: active diplomats, retired diplomats-turned-professors, and aspiring would-be diplomats refuse to recognize that some things in this world fall outside of their professional purview. Could we imagine any other profession — say, anesthesiology or lumberjacking — making that same bold claim about itself?
> 
> Kim has made a mockery of our diplomacy with him for nearly two decades. He soaked President Clinton for all he was worth, [8] clicking champagne glasses with Madeleine Albright all the while perfecting the art of plutonium production. During the Bush administration, Kim reneged on every preliminary agreement before the preliminary agreement could get its trousers off. And now he’s manhandling Mr. Obama to the point of embarrassment.
> 
> Faith is the belief in things unseen and unproven, and Obama certainly has faith in his unproven ability to influence bad actors and bend them to his will. Peter Wehner of Commentary [9] writes of Obama’s faith in diplomacy like so:
> 
> During the campaign, whenever asked how he would address a thorny foreign policy issue, Mr. Obama invoked the need for diplomacy — first, last, and always. The failure to reach agreement was found in some misunderstanding, some misperception, some problem of communication that could be cleared up by “talking.” Even those of us who don’t rule out the benefits of negotiating were skeptical about Obama’s seemingly limitless faith in it, or the ease with which he seemed to think these problems could be solved.
> 
> Enough is enough. Kim Jong Il has proven he will stop at nothing to produce and proliferate nuclear weapons, and that is a no-no. Diplomacy has failed. Talking for the sake of talking is not working. Serious powers ought to be emphasizing results, not process. “Soft power” is a problem cured by Cialis — not a national security strategy for North Korea. It’s time we started working to bring that twisted, Lilliputian, Chia Pet miscreant down.
> 
> Article printed from Pajamas Media: http://pajamasmedia.com
> 
> URL to article: http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/the-us-should-overthrow-kim-jong-il/
> 
> URLs in this post:
> [1] latest round: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090527/ap_on_re_as/as_koreas_nuclear_52
> [2] threatening: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/28/world/asia/28korea.html
> [3] disavowing: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/05/26/AR2009052600555.html?wprss=rss_world
> [4] swearing: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090527/ap_on_re_as/as_koreas_nuclear_69
> [5] claims: http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/national-security-adviser-downplays-n.-korea-threat-2009-05-27.h
> tml
> 
> [6] states: http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20090527/pl_afp/nkoreanuclearweaponsuswhouse_20090527180103
> [7] recommends: http://www.therightscoop.com/problem-north-korea-answer-nuclear-japan/
> [8] clicking: http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=4443&page=6
> [9] writes: http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/wehner/67382


----------



## CougarKing

So Moscow turns its back on an old ally?



> MOSCOW/SEOUL (Reuters) - Russia has suggested that it may back economic sanctions against North Korea to persuade Pyongyang to scrap its nuclear arms program, while fears grew that the North is about to test another long-range missile.
> 
> Diplomats in New York have been in closed-door negotiations for more than a week on a U.N. Security Council resolution that would broaden sanctions imposed on North Korea after its first nuclear test in October 2006.
> 
> Traditionally, Russia and China have been reluctant to back sanctions. But Russian President Dmitry Medvedev indicated on Wednesday that was he was prepared to support U.S-led efforts to draft a sanctions resolution against Pyongyang that the 15-nation Security Council could approve by next week.
> 
> (....)



http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/03/AR2009060303362.html


----------



## CougarKing

Just another update on the predicament of those two US reporters being held by North Korea for alleged "acts of hostility and spying" against the DPRK government.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090604/ap_on_re_as/as_nkorea_journalists_held



> *American journalists head to trial in North Korea*
> Associated Press Writers Jean H. Lee And William Foreman, Associated Press Writers – 2 hrs 5 mins ago
> SEOUL, South Korea – Two American journalists headed to trial Thursday before North Korea's highest court on charges they crossed into the country illegally and engaged in "hostile acts" — allegations that could draw a 10-year sentence in a labor camp.
> 
> Laura Ling and Euna Lee, reporters for former Vice President Al Gore's California-based Current TV, were arrested March 17 near the North Korean border while on a reporting trip to China.
> 
> Their trial began at a time of mounting tensions on the Korean peninsula following the regime's provocative May 25 nuclear test.
> 
> As the United Nations and Washington discussed how to punish the regime for its defiance, there were fears the women could become political pawns in the standoff with Pyongyang.
> 
> Analyst Choi Eun-suk, a professor of North Korean law at Kyungnam University, said the court could convict the women, and then the government could use them as bargaining chips with the United States.
> 
> "The North is likely to release and deport them to the U.S. — if negotiations with the U.S. go well," Choi said.
> 
> The two nations do not have diplomatic relations, and experts called Pyongyang's belligerence a bid to grab President Barack Obama's attention.
> 
> North Korea's official news agency said the trial would begin by mid-afternoon, but hours later, there was no word on the status of the proceedings. A State Department spokesman said American officials had seen no independent confirmation that the case was under way.
> 
> North Korea has said no observers will be allowed to watch.
> 
> Few details are known about how Ling and Lee have been treated since they were arrested nearly three months ago. So far, family members have not reported mistreatment.
> 
> North Korea's government is notorious for its brutality, but the most recent accounts indicate the regime has softened its treatment of imprisoned foreigners. Still, the experience has left scars on almost all who endured it.
> 
> _In 1996, Evan C. Hunziker was detained for three months after being accused of spying. The 26-year-old American entered North Korea by swimming across the Yalu River on the Chinese border._
> 
> Hunziker, whose mother was Korean, said he went there out of curiosity and "to preach the Gospel." Other reports said he got drunk and decided to go for a swim. Hunziker was freed after New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, who was then a congressman, negotiated his release.
> 
> Hunziker's father said his son refused to talk about his detention, saying only that he was treated humanely and that the food was bad. In a letter to his mother, he said he was moved from a prison to a hotel.
> 
> The North Koreans initially demanded a payment of $100,000 as a fine but eventually agreed on $5,000 to settle Hunziker's hotel bill. The family agreed to pay.
> 
> Hunziker, who had a long history of drug, alcohol and legal problems, committed suicide a month after he was freed.
> 
> _Three years later, the North Koreans detained retired Japanese journalist Takashi Sugishima, who was accused of using a hand-held tape recorder and camera to collect intelligence for Japan and South Korea — an allegation he denied._
> 
> Sugishima said he was held for two years in a warm, comfortable cell in a mountain detention facility. He was given three hot meals a day and never tortured.
> 
> "The treatment I received was more humane than I expected," Sugishima said. Still, he added, the experience was "extremely trying," and he worried constantly that he might not survive.
> 
> _Some of the harshest conditions were endured by Ali Lameda, a poet and member of Venezuela's Communist Party. He said he was invited to North Korea in 1966 to work as a Spanish translator but quickly became disillusioned with the propaganda.
> 
> The next year, Lameda said, he was accused of spying, sabotage and infiltration. He was detained in a damp, filthy cell for a year without trial and survived on dirty scraps of bread and watery vegetable soup. He was often interrogated from noon to midnight. Once, the guards beat his swollen bare feet. _
> 
> "Whilst in my cell, I could hear the cries of other prisoners," Lameda wrote in an account provided to Amnesty International. "You can soon learn to distinguish whether a man is crying from fear or pain or from madness in such a place."
> 
> During the day, detainees were kept awake because the guards said prisoners could not ponder their guilt while asleep, he said.
> 
> Shortly after his release, Lameda was tried again. There were no formal charges or specific allegations against him in the one-day hearing, he said. Court officials kept demanding that he confess his guilt.
> 
> He was sentenced to 20 years in a freezing labor camp near the town of Sariwon, about 40 miles south of Pyongyang. The camp had 6,000 prisoners who worked 12 hours a day making vehicles and mattresses.
> 
> "The cell that I was taken to had no heating except for a pipe running through it which became warm for approximately five minutes each night," he said. "The windows were iced-up and my feet froze."
> 
> Lameda served six years before being released again in 1974 without explanation.
> 
> _He was luckier than his colleague, French translator Jacques Sedillot, who was arrested at the same time and suffered the same treatment. Sedillot was released with the Venezuelan poet but died before he could leave North Korea. _
> 
> State-run media have not defined the exact charges against the women from Current TV, but South Korean legal experts said conviction for "hostility" or espionage could mean five to 10 years in a labor camp.
> 
> Choi, the professor, said a ruling by the top court would be final.
> 
> The State Department has not divulged details about negotiations for the journalists' freedom.
> 
> Back home, the reporters' families pleaded for clemency.
> 
> Ling's sister, TV journalist Lisa Ling, said on CNN's "Larry King Live" that the women "are essentially in the midst of this nuclear standoff."
> 
> She urged the governments to "try to communicate, to try and bring our situation to a resolution on humanitarian grounds — to separate the issues."
> 
> _In several U.S. cities, supporters of the two women held vigils Wednesday for their release. In New York, dozens of people turned out in a drenching rain, holding yellow chrysanthemums. Gatherings also took place in San Francisco and Santa Monica, Calif. _
> 
> ___
> 
> Associated Press writers Kwang-tae Kim in Seoul, William C. Mann and Foster Klug in Washington, Ginny Byrne in New York, and John Mone in Santa Monica, Calif., contributed to this report.
> 
> ___
> 
> On the Net:
> 
> Facebook page for Lee and Ling: http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid60755553149
> 
> YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?vxaxXdKcA5tM


----------



## CougarKing

Another update:



> Agence France-Presse - 6/7/2009 3:35 PM GMT
> *US considers returning N.Korea to terror list
> US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Sunday that Washington is considering putting North Korea back on its list of countries that sponsor terrorism following Pyongyang's nuclear and missile tests.
> 
> In an interview with ABC television, Clinton also said Washington would do everything it can to stop shipments of North Korean nuclear materials and to shut off Pyongyang's flow of money.
> 
> She was asked for a response to a letter from several US senators asking President Barack Obama to put Pyongyang back on the terror list, from which it was removed in October 2008 under former president George W. Bush.
> 
> "Well, we're going to look at it," she said.
> 
> "There's a process for it. Obviously we would want to see recent evidence of their support for international terrorism," she added. "We're just beginning to look at it."
> 
> Obama said Saturday that "North Korea's actions over the last couple of months have been extraordinarily provocative."
> 
> The North conducted its second nuclear test last month and defied international criticism by firing a volley of short-range missiles and threatening to attack the capitalist South.*
> 
> At a press conference in Normandy, where Obama was visiting to mark the 65th D-Day anniversary, the president also said the UN Security Council is working toward a new resolution on North Korea.
> 
> *He insisted even China and Russia, the two major powers closest to the North, were taking a tougher approach. "They understand how destabilizing North Korea's actions are," Obama said.
> 
> Clinton said the United States was working hard to create a mechanism that would allow for interdiction of suspect North Korean shipments, acknowledging that some countries had "legitimate concerns" about the precedent that would set.
> 
> But she said, "We will do everything we can to both interdict it and prevent it and shut off their flow of money."
> 
> "If we do not take significant and effective action against the North Koreans now, we'll spark an arms race in northeast Asia." *
> 
> "And so part of what we're doing is, again, sharing with other countries our calculus of the risks and the dangers that would lie ahead if we don't take very strong action," Clinton said.
> 
> Sixteen Republican senators called Wednesday for placing the communist regime back on the terror list, saying the North's "provocative actions must have immediate consequences."
> 
> Ailing North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il's "regime has never stopped supporting terrorism or joined meaningful negotiations," said Senator Jim DeMint of South Carolina.
> 
> "In fact, North Korea has done just the opposite and moved closer to equipping terrorists with nuclear weapons."
> 
> DeMint and seven other lawmakers had sent a letter to Clinton a day earlier urging her to "immediately" place North Korea back on the blacklist.
> 
> Reinstating North Korea on the watchlist would reactivate sanctions lifted in October, when the United States said North Korea had agreed to steps to verify its nuclear disarmament and pledged to resume disabling its atomic plants.
> 
> Obama would be able to waive the designation if he certifies to the congress that North Korea has fully disclosed its nuclear activities, has not illegally spread nuclear or missile know-how, has not supported any terrorist groups, and has met other conditions.
> 
> North Korea was added to the blacklist on January 20, 1988, following the bombing by its agents of a KAL plane on November 29, 1987 which killed all 115 on board.
> 
> The State Department said late last year that the North was not known to have sponsored any terrorist acts since that bombing.


----------



## CougarKing

The only thing though to worry about is whether Pyongyang will really carry out its invasion/war threat once the US starts intercepting North Korean ships.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/08/world/asia/08korea.html?_r=1&hp



> *U.S. Weighs Intercepting North Korean Shipments*
> By DAVID E. SANGER
> Published: June 7, 2009
> WASHINGTON — *The Obama administration signaled Sunday that it was seeking a way to interdict, possibly with China’s help, North Korean sea and air shipments suspected of carrying weapons or nuclear technology.
> 
> The administration also said it was examining whether there was a legal basis to reverse former President George W. Bush’s decision last year to remove the North from a list of states that sponsor terrorism.
> 
> The reference to interdictions — preferably at ports or airfields in countries like China, but possibly involving riskier confrontations on the high seas — was made by Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton. She was the administration’s highest-ranking official to talk publicly about such a potentially provocative step as a response to North Korea’s second nuclear test, conducted two weeks ago.
> 
> While Mrs. Clinton did not specifically mention assistance from China, other administration officials have been pressing Beijing to take such action under Chinese law.
> 
> Speaking on ABC’s “This Week,” Mrs. Clinton said the United States feared that if the test and other recent actions by North Korea did not lead to “strong action,” there was a risk of “an arms race in Northeast Asia” — an oblique reference to the concern that Japan would reverse its long-held ban against developing nuclear weapons.
> 
> So far it is not clear how far the Chinese are willing to go to aid the United States in stopping North Korea’s profitable trade in arms, the isolated country’s most profitable export. But the American focus on interdiction demonstrates a new and potentially far tougher approach to North Korea than both President Clinton and Mr. Bush, in his second term, took as they tried unsuccessfully to reach deals that would ultimately lead North Korea to dismantle its nuclear arsenal.*
> 
> Mr. Obama, aides say, has decided that he will not offer North Korea new incentives to dismantle the nuclear complex at Yongbyon that the North previously promised to abandon.
> 
> “I’m tired of buying the same horse twice,” Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates said last week, while touring an antimissile site in Alaska that the Bush administration built to demonstrate its preparedness to destroy North Korean missiles headed toward the United States. (So far, the North Koreans have not yet successfully tested a missile of sufficient range to reach the United States, though there is evidence that they may be preparing for another test of their long-range Taepodong-2 missile.)
> 
> Mr. Obama referred to the same string of broken deals in France on Saturday, telling reporters, “I don’t think there should be an assumption that we will simply continue down a path in which North Korea is constantly destabilizing the region and we just react in the same ways.” He added, “We are not intending to continue a policy of rewarding provocation.”
> 
> While Mr. Obama was in the Middle East and Europe, several senior officials said the president’s national security team had all but set aside the central assumption that guided American policy toward North Korea over the past 16 years and two presidencies: that the country would be willing to ultimately abandon its small arsenal of nuclear weapons in return for some combination of oil, nuclear power plants, money, food and guarantees that the United States would not topple its government, the world’s last Stalinesque regime.
> 
> Now, after examining the still-inconclusive evidence about the results of North Korea’s second nuclear test, the administration has come to different conclusions: that Pyonyang’s top priority is to be recognized as a nuclear state, that it is unwilling to bargain away its weapons and that it sees tests as a way to help sell its nuclear technology.
> 
> “This entirely changes the dynamic of how you deal with them,” a senior national security aide said.
> 
> While Mr. Obama is willing to reopen the six-party talks that Mr. Bush began — the other participants are Japan, South Korea, Russia and China — he has no intention, aides say, of offering new incentives to get the North to fulfill agreements from 1994, 2005 and 2008; all were recently renounced.
> 
> “Clinton bought it once, Bush bought it again, and we’re not going to buy it a third time,” one of Mr. Obama’s chief strategists said last week, referring to the Yongbyon plant, where the North reprocesses spent nuclear fuel into bomb-grade plutonium.
> 
> While some officials privately acknowledged that they would still like to roll back what one called North Korea’s “rudimentary” nuclear capability, a more realistic goal is to stop the country from devising a small weapon deliverable on a short-, medium- or long-range missile.
> 
> In conducting any interdictions, the United States could risk open confrontation with North Korea. That prospect — and the likelihood of escalating conflict if the North resisted an inspection — is why China has balked at American proposals for a resolution by the United Nations Security Council that would explicitly allow interceptions at sea. A previous Security Council resolution, passed after the North’s first nuclear test in 2006, allowed interdictions “consistent with international law.” But that term was never defined, and few of the provisions were enforced.
> 
> North Korea has repeatedly said it would regard any interdiction as an act of war, and officials in Washington have been trying to find ways to stop the shipments without a conflict.  Late last week, James B. Steinberg, the deputy secretary of state, visited Beijing with a delegation of American officials, seeking ideas from China about sanctions, including financial pressure, that might force North Korea to change direction.
> 
> “The Chinese face a dilemma that they have always faced,” a senior administration official said. “They don’t want North Korea to become a full nuclear weapons state. But they don’t want to cause the state to collapse.” They have been walking a fine line, the official said, taking a tough position against the North of late, but unwilling to publicly embrace steps that would put China in America’s camp.
> 
> To counter the Chinese concern, Mr. Steinberg and his delegation argued to the Chinese that failing to crack down on North Korea would prompt reactions that Beijing would find deeply unsettling, including a greater American military presence in the region, and more calls in Japan for that country to develop its own weapons.
> 
> Mrs. Clinton seemed to reflect this concern in the interview on Sunday. “We will do everything we can to both interdict it and prevent it and shut off their flow of money,” she said. “If we do not take significant and effective action against the North Koreans now, we’ll spark an arms race in Northeast Asia. I don’t think anybody wants to see that.”
> 
> While Mrs. Clinton also said the State Department was examining whether North Korea should be placed back on the list of state sponsors of terrorism, she acknowledged that there was a legal process for it. “Obviously we would want to see recent evidence of their support for international terrorism,” she said.
> 
> That evidence may be hard to come by. While North Korea has engaged in missile sales, it has not been linked to terrorism activity for many years. And North Korea’s restoration to the list would be largely symbolic, because it already faces numerous economic sanctions.


----------



## CougarKing

That North Korean kangaroo court just sentenced those two US journalists to 12 years' hard labour.

latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-norkor-journalists8-2009jun08,0,3667915.story?page=2



> North Korea sentences 2 U.S. reporters to prison
> June 8 2009
> 
> 
> "If things are business as usual in North Korea, it would suggest the journalists would be released quickly. If not, they could be held for a long time," Snyder said.
> 
> North Korean labor camps are notorious for their high death rates because of malnutrition and overwork. But thus far, the women have been fairly well treated, housed in a Pyongyang guest house and allowed occasional telephone calls. The Swedish ambassador has also been permitted to visit them.
> 
> "The North Koreans are not in a hurry to release them. They see them as valuable pawns," said an aide official who works in Pyongyang, speaking on condition of anonymity a few days before the trial began.
> 
> Both women are married and Lee, who is Korean American, has a 4-year-old daughter. In recent days, their plight has drawn worldwide attention.
> 
> "We appeal to the North Korean judicial authorities to show the utmost clemency, and we hope the trial will result in the acquittal and release of the two American journalists," Reporters Without Borders said in statement last week. "We urge the judges trying the case to follow the example set by their Iranian counterparts, who released U.S. journalist Roxana Saberi last month."
> 
> 
> Over the weekend, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton had called for the women's release.
> 
> Clinton said she has spoken with foreign officials with influence in North Korea and explored the possibility of sending an envoy to the North, but suggested that no one would be sent during the trial.
> 
> Many say political uncertainty in North Korea cast a pall over the trial. After suffering a debilitating stroke last year, strongman Kim Jong Il is reportedly planning to name a successor, rumored to be his youngest son.
> 
> The possible power vacuum has created a subtle battle of ideologies as communist hard-liners seek to crush those in favor of social reforms and a more open policy toward the West.
> 
> In recent weeks, as the trial date got closer, state-run news in North Korea released condemnations of the women, alluding to their "confirmed crimes" and "illegally intruding into [North Korean] territory."
> 
> Experts believe the trial serves as a political litmus test. They say North Korea had an opportunity to distinguish the journalists' case from the political realm and temper an international image further damaged by the nuclear test.
> 
> But now those hopes have been cast into doubt with today's verdict.
> 
> Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean studies, said the world will wait to see how Pyongyang handles its prisoners.
> 
> "Now that the results came out from the trial, the next step will be a political pardon and a diplomatic resolution," he said. "It's highly likely that Al Gore will visit Pyongyang as early as late this week."



The one on the right is Laura Ling.






Euna Lee


----------



## CougarKing

And it seems that Pyongyang continues to want to escalate the situation:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090608/ap_on_re_as/as_nkorea_missile



> *North Korea bans ships from coastal waters*
> Associated Press Writer Jae-soon Chang, Associated Press Writer – 2 hrs 25 mins ago
> SEOUL, South Korea – *North Korea has warned fishermen and boat captains to stay away from the country's east coast, Japan's coast guard said Monday, in another sign the communist regime is planning to fire more missiles after its recent nuclear test.
> 
> Pyongyang also threatened Monday to retaliate with a "super hard-line" response if sanctions were imposed.
> 
> North Korea's Rodong Sinmun newspaper said Pyongyang "has made clear many times that we will consider any sanction a declaration of war and will take due corresponding self-defense measures." The commentary carried by the official Korean Central News Agency did not elaborate.*
> 
> The U.N. Security Council has been discussing imposing sanctions against the North in response to its May 25 nuclear test, while Washington considers introducing its own financial sanctions.
> 
> On Monday, Japan's coast guard said it picked up a North Korean radio signal banning ships from waters off Wonsan from June 10-30. South Korean media have reported since last week that the North is planning to fire several medium-range missiles from the eastern coastal city of Anbyon near Wonsan.
> 
> (...)


----------



## CougarKing

Yikes!!!  



> North Korea would use nuclear weapons in a 'merciless offensive'
> 
> Associated Press
> 
> Tuesday, 9 June 2009
> 
> North Korea today said it would use nuclear weapons in a "merciless offensive" if provoked — its latest bellicose rhetoric apparently aimed at deterring any international punishment for its recent atomic test blast.
> 
> The tensions emanating from Pyongyang are beginning to hit nascent business ties with the South: a Seoul-based fur manufacturer became the first South Korean company to announce Monday it was pulling out of an industrial complex in the North's border town of Kaesong.
> 
> The complex, which opened in 2004, is a key symbol of rapprochement between the two Koreas but the goodwill is evaporating quickly in the wake of North Korea's nuclear test on May 25 and subsequent missile tests.
> 
> http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/north-korea-would-use-nuclear-weapons-in-a-merciless-offensive-1700590.html
> 
> Pyongyang raised tensions a notch by reviving its rhetoric in a commentary in the state-run Minju Joson newspaper today.
> 
> "Our nuclear deterrent will be a strong defensive means...as well as a merciless offensive means to deal a just retaliatory strike to those who touch the country's dignity and sovereignty even a bit," said the commentary, carried by the official Korean Central News Agency.
> 
> It appeared to be the first time that North Korea referred to its nuclear arsenal as "offensive" in nature. Pyongyang has long claimed that its nuclear weapons program is a deterrent and only for self-defense against what it calls US attempts to invade it.
> The tough talk came as South Korea and the US lead an effort at the UN Security Council to have the North punished for its nuclear test with tough sanctions.
> 
> Seoul's Yonhap news agency reported today that South Korea had doubled the number of naval ships around the disputed sea border with the North amid concern the communist neighbor could provoke an armed clash there — the scene of skirmishes in 1999 and 2002.
> 
> The Joint Chiefs of Staff declined to confirm the report, but said the North has not shown any unusual military moves.
> 
> Relations between the two Koreas have significantly worsened since a pro-US, conservative government took office in Seoul last year, advocating a tougher policy on the North. Since then, reconciliation talks have been cut off and all key joint projects except the factory park in Kaesong have been suspended.
> 
> Some 40,000 North Koreans are employed at the zone, making everything from electronics and watches to shoes and utensils, providing a major source of revenue for the cash-strapped North. The park combines South Korean technology and management expertise with cheap North Korean labor.
> 
> A total of 106 South Korean companies operate in the park. That number will go down by the end of the month when Skinnet, the fur-maker, completes its pullout.
> 
> A Skinnet company official said the decision was primarily over "security concerns" for its employees, and also because of a decline in orders from clients concerned over possible disruptions to operations amid the soaring tensions.
> 
> The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak with reporters.
> 
> The industrial park's fate has been in doubt since last month when North Korea threatened to scrap all contracts on running the joint complex and said it would write new rules of its own and the South must accept them or pull out of the zone.
> 
> The companies have also been concerned by the detention of a South Korean man working at the complex by North Korean authorities since late March for allegedly denouncing the regime's political system.
> 
> The two sides are to hold talks on the fate of the park Thursday.
> 
> Intensifying its confrontation with the US, North Korea handed down 12-year prison terms to two detained American journalists on Monday.


----------



## CougarKing

One MSM take on how "another Korean War" (the 1st one technically isn't over) could start and be conducted:

(From TIME Magazine via Yahoo News)





> Could the U.S. Be Drawn into a New Korean War?
> 
> By MARK THOMPSON / WASHINGTON Mark Thompson / Washington – 20 mins ago
> To fear a new Korean War is historically inaccurate, because, in fact, the last one never ended: the world's most dangerous border, across which some 2 million North Korean, U.S. and South Korean troops face each other along the 38th parallel of the Korean Peninsula is, in fact, simply an armistice line. On July 27, 1953, the U.S. and North Korea signed a truce pausing, but not ending, a war that claimed more than 2 million lives, including those of 36,940 U.S. troops. And the North's recent nuclear and missile saber-rattling has many growing nervous about the potential for a resumption of hostilities.
> 
> 
> North Korea, in fact, announced on May 27 that it was withdrawing from the armistice. It declared it could no longer guarantee the safety of ships sailing through the Yellow Sea off its western coast, and would no longer respect the legal status of several islands off South Korea's coast. It also vowed to attack South Korea if North Korean vessels suspected of smuggling nuclear and missile components are stopped and searched by a U.S.-led U.N. naval armada - a proposal currently under discussion. (See pictures of North Koreans at the polls.)
> 
> 
> U.S. officials are concerned that political instability inside the Pyongyang regime may raise the danger of confrontation. "Dear Leader" Kim Jong Il has been weakened by a stroke suffered late last year, his 26-year old heir apparent is not yet ready to take the reins and the North Korean military is eager to maintain its preeminence in the coming political succession. "Any time you have a combination of this behavior of doing provocative things in order to excite a response - plus succession questions - you have a potentially dangerous mixture," said U.S. Director of National Intelligence Dennis Blair on Monday.
> 
> 
> Despite the rising tensions, however, a number of factors militate against a new chapter being opened in the Korean War. South Korea, backed by the U.S., doesn't want war, because the North has some 13,000 artillery tubes aimed at Seoul and the more than 10 million South Koreans living within 30 miles of the DMZ. North Korea, backed by China, doesn't want war because if it comes, it all but guarantees the collapse of Kim's regime, which is also the family business. (See pictures of the rise of Kim Jong Il.)
> 
> 
> Washington has made clear that it wants to solve this latest flare-up via diplomatic channels. "Our focus is now - and has been and likely will continue to be - on coming up with diplomatic and economic pressures that will persuade the North to abandon its pursuit of nuclear weapons and the platforms to deliver them," Pentagon spokesman Geoff Morrell said June 8. And if that fails? "We all need to be prudent about our planning for defensive measures." That suggests neither Washington nor Seoul is going to take preemptive military action.
> 
> 
> The immediate priority of the U.S. and its allies is to prevent North Korea from spreading its nuclear know-how around the world. And their own lever is China's influence over the hermit regime. "There's a view that if you want to get the Chinese to act on North Korea, you need to signal a willingness to take military action," Scott Snyder, a Korea expert with the Council on Foreign Relations, said last week. "But at the same time, how do you do that - especially in conjunction with allies - without the Chinese feeling that you're trying to manipulate them tactically?"
> 
> 
> China's role will be key, according to Larry Wortzel, who served two tours as a U.S. Army military attachÉ in Beijing. "China will not let North Korea collapse," he was told by several top People's Liberation Army officials during the Clinton Administration, according to his account in the latest issue of the U.S. Army journal Parameters. Beijing will help Pyongyang survive any sanctions. "There are limits to what the United States and its allies can do," he warns, "unless they want a complete break with, or to invite conflict with, China." China's motives are twofold: keep North Korean refugees from flooding across the border, as well as keep a U.S. ally from emerging on China's doorstep.
> 
> 
> If it came to war, however, a key goal of any large North Korean attack would be to launch as many shells and rockets toward Seoul from its artillery tubes and launchers, many self-propelled or on railcars. The goal of U.S. and South Korean forces would be to destroy that artillery capability before too many rounds could be launched. While North Korea would build any attack around its 1.2 million–strong army, the U.S. and South Korea would rely more on their air and naval forces.
> 
> 
> The Pentagon has largely refrained from saber-rattling, and is not planning to reinforce the 28,000 U.S. troops now in South Korea, or the 35,000 stationed in Japan. When pressed, U.S. military leaders concede that even their defensive plans will be tougher to implement given the fact that they currently have roughly 175,000 troops deployed in Afghanistan and Iraq. "There would have to be a level of ad hoc conglomeration of forces," General James Conway, the Marine commandant, told a Senate panel June 2. "But in the end, I am convinced we would prevail."
> 
> 
> See pictures of North Korea's secrets and lies at LIFE.com.


----------



## CougarKing

This should be a further indication of where China and Russia really stand this time around, unlike the "first" Korean War.



> June 10 (Bloomberg) -- China and Russia have agreed on a United Nations draft resolution backed by the U.S. and Japan that would seek to curb loans and money transfers to North Korea as punishment for its nuclear-bomb test and missile launches, according to diplomats representing Security Council members.
> 
> The countries also will support the interdiction at sea of cargo ships suspected of carrying nuclear-related material to or from North Korea, according to a copy of the draft resolution obtained by Bloomberg News.
> 
> The measure will be circulated to the 15-nation UN Security Council today and put to a vote this week, the diplomats said. Support from China and Russia, which have resisted tighter sanctions on North Korea, makes it likely the draft resolution will be adopted unanimously.
> 
> The text calls on UN members to inspect cargo at seaports, airports or in international waters if there’s any suspicion that it contains material that might contribute to North Korea’s development of nuclear weapons or ballistic missiles. The resolution also would prohibit the refueling or servicing of such vessels.
> 
> The U.S. would be authorized to stop and inspect North Korean vessels “if there are reasonable grounds” to believe the cargo includes prohibited goods. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said on ABC-TV’s “This Week” program on June 7 that the U.S. was working “very hard to create a mechanism where we can interdict North Korean shipments.”
> 
> (....)



http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=aLHFniH1sBD0


----------



## CougarKing

And here we go again:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090611/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/us_us_nkorea_nuclear





> *AP source: NKorea may be prepping new nuclear test*
> 
> 23 mins ago
> WASHINGTON – A U.S. government official says North Korea may be preparing for its third nuclear test as the United Nations considers new sanctions on the dictatorship for conducting an underground nuclear explosion in May. Word of a possible new test comes from an official who spoke on condition of anonymity because he is not authorized to discuss the information publicly.
> 
> North Korea conducted an underground explosion on May 25, its first since a 2006 atomic test.
> 
> A draft U.N. resolution proposed Wednesday would impose tough sanctions on North Korea's weapons exports and financial dealings and allow inspections of suspect cargo in ports and on the high seas. North Korea has threatened to retaliate if new sanctions are adopted.


----------



## ruckmarch

You've got to ask the question though, why do journalists or freelancers keep trying or ignoring the warnings not to enter NK? Am sure some that enter try to get juicey stories to sneak out and then when they get caught, they cry foul  :

It's simple, stay away from there if you don't want to labeled a "spy". It's hardly a hot vacation destination.


----------



## a_majoor

The DPRK is in dire economic straights and is reverting to form since nuclear blackmail was quite successful during the Clinton admininstration. They almost certainly perceive the Obama administration as being weak and uninterested in foreign policy and probably expect the usual shower of food, oil and cash in response to their actions.

The new wild cards are the Russians and Chinese seeing that an unstable nuclear DPRK is not in their national interests (although how Russia and China see the DPRK or a unified "Greater Korea" fitting into their national interests is an interesting question). The recent support of increased sanctions indicates these powers no longer see the benefits of tying the United States down with the DPRK's nuclear sabre rattling outweigh the risks, and are preparing to stabilize the situation to their own benefit. 

Of course the most frightening potential outcome is if the Russians and Chinese come to the conclusion that their national interests are best served by opposite outcomes in the DPRK......


----------



## Sonnyjim

And in response to your last post CougarDaddy....

SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korea on Saturday threatened military action if the United States tried to isolate it after the U.N. Security Council imposed widened sanctions against the reclusive communist state for a nuclear test in May.


The North also vowed to start a programme to enrich uranium and to weaponise plutonium at its nuclear weapons plant, the North's official news agency KCNA quoted its foreign ministry spokesman as saying.


The sanctions resolution approved on Friday banned all weapons exports from North Korea and most arms imports into the state. It authorized U.N. member states to inspect North Korean sea, air and land cargo, requiring them to seize and destroy any goods transported in violation of the sanctions.


A senior South Korean official said that North Korea may possibly respond to U.N. punishment with "another nuclear test and maybe more missiles."


"They will never, never give up their nuclear weapons," said the official who asked not to be named due to the sensitive subject matter.

Link: http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/090613/world/international_us_korea_north


----------



## MarkOttawa

A post at _Dust my Broom_:

Kim Bomb Il (cont.), a "Brilliant Comrade", and...
http://dustmybroom.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=11853:kim-bomb-il-cont-a-qbrilliant-comradeq-and&catid=43:drama-city



> ...useless UN Security Council sanctions...



Mark
Ottawa


----------



## CougarKing

MarkOttawa said:
			
		

> A post at _Dust my Broom_:
> 
> Kim Bomb Il (cont.), a "Brilliant Comrade", and...
> http://dustmybroom.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=11853:kim-bomb-il-cont-a-qbrilliant-comradeq-and&catid=43:drama-city
> 
> Mark
> Ottawa



Very fitting name- Kim Bomb Il.
 ;D


----------



## Yrys

China and Russia on board for North Korea sanctions
Robust message for North Korea






_There are fears of a possible incident 
between North and South Korean ships_

"Actions must have consequences." That was US President Barack Obama's cry in the wake 
of North Korea's second underground nuclear test at the end of last month. Accordingly, the
unanimous adoption of this resolution containing tougher sanctions against North Korea 
represents a significant rebuff for the Pyongyang government.

Russia and China backed the agreed text. North Korea can be in no doubt about the concerted 
international disapproval for its actions. Tough words have been accompanied by tougher 
actions - up to a point.

A battery of measures are set to reinforce the sanctions regime against Pyongyang. There is a 
total embargo on exports of weaponry from North Korea and significantly expanded controls 
on arms exports to it. A new framework is being established for international co-operation to 
inspect North Korean cargoes for anything associated with weapons of mass destruction. There 
are additional financial sanctions too, along with strengthened measures to monitor the whole 
sanctions regime.

However, much of this still depends upon the actions of individual governments and none more 
so than North Korea's giant neighbour - China.

'*Complex and sensitive'*

China's UN ambassador Zhang Yesui took a more nuanced approach to the resolution insisting that 
it was "an appropriate and balanced response" and that it sent a positive signal to Pyongyang that 
its nuclear problems had to be resolved by negotiation. It is clear that China remains deeply uneasy 
about the whole business of cargo inspections. This was, he said, a "complex and sensitive" matter. 
China is urging countries to approach this in a legal and reasonable way and that there should be no 
question of using force.

Russia too stressed that this resolution was not offering an opportunity for military action against 
Pyongyang and that the measures outlined on stopping and searching ships were circumscribed and 
narrow in scope. None of this suggests that the new sanctions regime is necessarily going to bite.

But the US and its allies like Japan and South Korea will want to bank the fact that Russia and China 
are on board. The diplomatic front at least against Pyongyang is reasonably solid with a clear message 
for North Korea to return to the negotiating table.

*Dangerous times*

What is not yet clear is what additional unilateral steps the Obama administration might take against 
Pyongyang. It could seek to toughen financial restrictions and it might even restore North Korea to the 
list of countries sponsoring terrorism. North Korea's actions are clear but its motivation is much less so.

Some analysts argue that North Korea is trying to attract the attention of the new US president to push 
the whole issue of its nuclear programme higher up Washington's agenda.

Others argue that North Korea's nuclear and missile tests relate more to internal developments, bolstering 
the public image of the regime and possibly preparing the way for a transfer of power from the ailing, 
elderly Kim Jong-il to one of his sons. But these are dangerous and uncertain times.

There are growing fears of a possible incident between North and South Korean ships along the Northern 
Limit Line - the disputed western maritime extension of the Demilitarized Zone that divides the two Koreas.
All eyes now will be on Pyongyang's reaction with many analysts fearing it may respond with more bangs 
- in the form of missile tests - and more bluster.


----------



## CougarKing

Another notable update: the South Korea/ROK President is in the US for a visit/summit, supposedly to get security guarantees from Obama.



> Agence France-Presse - 6/15/2009 8:35 PM GMT
> SKorean leader in US as NKorea tension soars
> South Korean President Lee Myung-Bak on Monday started a visit to the United States to plan action on North Korea, which staged a giant rally in a defiant show of support for its nuclear drive.
> 
> The US Congress approved a resolution supporting Lee against the North hours after he arrived. Lee was due to meet late Monday with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton before a summit Tuesday with President Barack Obama.
> 
> Lee was expected to ask Obama for explicit security guarantees after North Korea tested a nuclear bomb, stormed out of a six-nation disarmament accord and scrapped six decades of accords with the South.
> 
> The North's ruling party newspaper Rodong Sinmun said Monday that Lee's request was "intolerable" and said that such commitment would be "virtually formalizing a provocation for nuclear war."
> 
> Dennis Blair, the US intelligence chief, said Monday that a scientific analysis concluded that North Korea "probably" carried out its second-ever nuclear test in May with a yield of "a few kilotons."
> 
> The UN Security Council last week tightened sanctions against North Korea over the test, including calling for stricter inspections of cargo suspected of containing banned missile and nuclear-related items.
> 
> North Korean state media said that some 100,000 people rallied in Pyongyang against the UN Security Council resolution, blaming Washington for organizing it.
> 
> North Korea is ready to "deal telling blows at the vital parts of the US and wipe out all its imperialist aggressor troops no matter where they are in the world," military officer Pak Jae-Gyong was quoted as telling the rally.
> 
> Lee, a conservative businessman, took office last year. To the delight of many in Washington, he reversed a decade-long "sunshine policy" under which Seoul provided aid to the impoverished North with few conditions.
> 
> In Seoul, Unification Minister Hyun In-Taek said that North Korea never intended to give up its atomic weaponry and is thought to have been developing a secret program for seven to eight years despite taking part in talks.
> 
> In its response to the UN Security Council resolution, the communist state vowed Saturday to build more bombs and to start a new weapons program based on uranium enrichment.
> 
> Hyun told a parliamentary hearing he believes the enrichment program -- a second route to an atomic bomb after the North's admitted plutonium operation -- had in fact been in existence for years.
> 
> "As the US raised the accusation in 2002, I believe (the uranium enrichment program) had started before that. I believe it has been there for at least seven to eight years," Hyun said in answer to a question.
> 
> Several analysts and officials believe ailing leader Kim Jong-Il, 67, is intensifying military tensions to bolster his authority as he tries to put in place a succession plan involving his youngest son, Kim Jong-Un.
> 
> Amid US reports that North Korea could be preparing its third nuclear test, South Korea has sent extra troops and naval units to border islands seen as a likely flashpoint.
> The US House of Representatives approved a resolution demanding that North Korea end its "hostile rhetoric" against Seoul and abide by UN resolutions and the six-nation nuclear accord.
> 
> "I think it's important that the president and the secretary of state know that Congress will stand behind them if they have to take stronger action," said the resolution's main sponsor, Republican Congressman Peter King.
> 
> "I think everything should be on the table," he said.


----------



## Yrys

Reporters 'admit' N Korea entry





_The reporters were arrested while 
working on the China-N Korea border_

Two US journalists who were jailed last week in North Korea have admitted entering the country illegally, 
according to state news agency KCNA. Laura Ling and Euna Lee "admitted and accepted" their sentences, 
KCNA said.

The two women were given jail terms of 12 years' hard labour, after being found guilty of crossing into 
North Korea from the Chinese border in March. KCNA also said they had admitted getting footage for a 
"smear campaign" about North Korea's human rights.

The women's families have always claimed that Lee, 36, and Ling, 32, had no intention of crossing into 
North Korea. They fear the two reporters may become political pawns in negotiations between Washington 
and Pyongyang, amid growing tensions over North Korea's nuclear programme and recent missile tests.

*'Criminal acts'*

Euna Lee, a Korean-American, and Laura Ling, a Chinese-American, were arrested by North Korean guards 
on 17 March while filming a video about refugees for California-based internet broadcaster Current TV. They
were detained in Pyongyang, and on 8 June they were found guilty of "hostile acts" and illegal entry into 
North Korea.

"The accused admitted that what they did were criminal acts... prompted by the political motive to isolate 
and stifle the socialist system of the DPRK [North Korea]," KCNA said on Tuesday, giving its first details 
about the women's alleged crimes. The news agency added that the pair had crossed the border "for the 
purpose of making animation files to be used for an anti-DPRK smear campaign over its human rights issue".

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has described the charges against the two women as "baseless". She 
is thought to be considering sending an envoy to try to negotiate their release. But supporters of Ling and 
Lee are concerned that their plight will be exacerbated by worsening relations between North Korea and 
the US.

*Bargaining chips?*

Tensions have increased in the region since North Korea conducted a nuclear test in May and then test-
fired several missiles. Another long-range missile test is believed to be planned for later this month.
Pyongyang announced on Saturday that it would start enriching uranium and use all its plutonium to 
make nuclear weapons in response to tighter UN sanctions passed on Friday.

The new UN sanctions include the inspection of ships suspected of taking banned cargo to and from North 
Korea, a wider ban on arms sales and further measures to cut Pyongyang's access to international 
financial services.

There are fears Lee and Ling will be used by North Korea as bargaining chips to try to win concessions 
from Washington, such as humanitarian aid or direct talks. The US has so far said negotiations can only 
be held under the currently-stalled six-party talks on nuclear disarmament, which also include South 
Korea, China, Japan and Russia.

The KCNA report on the two journalists was released just hours before South Korean President Lee Myung-
bak was due to hold talks with US President Barack Obama in Washington.


----------



## Yrys

U.S. to Confront, Not Board, North Korean Ships

WASHINGTON — The Obama administration will order the Navy to hail and request permission to inspect 
North Korean ships at sea suspected of carrying arms or nuclear technology, but will not board them by 
force, senior administration officials said Monday.

The new effort to intercept North Korean ships, and track them to their next port, where Washington 
will press for the inspections they refused at sea, is part of what the officials described as “vigorous 
enforcement” of the United Nations Security Council resolution approved Friday.

The planned American action stops just short of the forced inspections that North Korea has said that
it would regard as an act of war. Still, the administration’s plans, if fully executed, would amount to 
the most confrontational approach taken by the United States in dealing with North Korea in years, 
and carries a risk of escalating tensions at a time when North Korea has been carrying out missile 
and nuclear tests.

In discussing President Obama’s strategy on Monday, administration officials said that the United 
States would report any ship that refused inspection to the Security Council. While the Navy and 
American intelligence agencies continued to track the ship, the administration would mount a 
vigorous diplomatic effort to insist that the inspections be carried out by any country that allowed 
the vessel into port.

The officials said that they believed that China, once a close cold war ally, would also enforce the 
new sanctions, which also require countries to refuse to refuel or resupply ships suspected of 
carrying out arms and nuclear technology. “China will implement the resolution earnestly,” said 
Qin Gang, a spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, said.

One official in Washington said the administration was told by their Chinese counterparts that China
“would not have signed on to this resolution unless they intended to enforce it.”

The strategy of ordering ships to stop but not provoking military action by boarding them was negotiated 
among Washington, Beijing and Moscow. It is unclear to what degree South Korea or Japan, at various 
times bitter adversaries of North Korea, would order their naval forces to join in the effort to intercept 
suspected shipments at sea, largely because of fears about what would happen if North Korean ships 
opened fire.

A senior administration official said Monday evening that the United States believed that it already had 
sufficient intelligence and naval assets in the Sea of Japan to track North Korean ships and flights. The 
country’s cargo fleet is relatively small, and the North is wary, officials say, of entrusting shipments 
banned by the United Nations to Panamanian-flagged freighters or those from other countries.

Until now, American interceptions of North Korean ships have been rare. Early in the Bush administration, 
a shipment of missiles to Yemen was discovered, but the United States permitted the shipment to go 
through after the Yemenis said they had paid for the missiles and expected delivery. Under the new 
United Nations resolution, American officials said they now had the authority to seize such shipments.

The senior administration officials outlined Mr. Obama’s approach a day before the president was to meet 
for the first time on Tuesday with South Korea’s president, Lee Myung-bak, a conservative who has been 
far more confrontational in his dealings with North Korea than most of his predecessors.

The resolution authorizes nations to seek to stop suspect North Korean shipments on the high seas, but 
they do not authorize forcible boarding or inspections. “The captains will be confronted,” one official said,
speaking on the condition of anonymity because he was discussing a security operation that America’s
key allies had only been partially briefed on. Even if they refused to allow inspections, the official said, 
“These guys aren’t going to get very far.”

While the captain of a ship may refuse inspection, as the North Koreans almost certainly would, the Obama 
administration officials noted that most North Korean vessels have limited range and would have to seek 
out ports in search of fuel and supplies. American officials believe that previous North Korean shipments 
of nuclear technology and missiles have gone undetected. The North Koreans were deeply involved in the 
construction of a reactor in Syria until September 2007, when the reactor was destroyed in an Israeli air 
raid. But no ships or aircraft carrying parts for that reactor were ever found.

Mr. Obama’s decisions about North Korea stem from a fundamentally different assessment of the North’s 
intentions than that of previous administrations. Nearly 16 years of on-and-off negotiations — punctuated 
by major crises in 1994 and 2003 — were based on an assumption that ultimately, the North was willing 
to give up its nuclear capability. A review, carried out by the Obama administration during its first month
in office, concluded that North Korea had no intention of trading away what it calls its “nuclear deterrent” 
in return for food, fuel and security guarantees.

Mr. Obama’s aides have said that while the new president is willing to re-engage in either the talks with 
North Korea and its neighbors, or in direct bilateral discussions, he will not agree to an incremental 
dismantlement of the North’s nuclear facilities. “There are ways to do this that are truly irreversible,” 
said one of Mr. Obama’s aides, declining to be specific.

North Korea is already working to reverse the dismantlement of some of its facilities negotiated in 
Mr. Bush’s last days in office. In the weeks ahead of and after its second nuclear test, conducted May 25, 
North Korea has disavowed its past commitments to give up those weapons, and said it would never bow 
to the demands of the United States, its allies, or the United Nations. On Saturday the North said that it 
would reprocess its remaining stockpile of spent nuclear fuel into plutonium, adding to an existing stockpile 
believed sufficient to make six or eight weapons.

Such announcements have heightened fears that North Korea’s next step could be to sell more of its nuclear 
or missile technology, one of the few profitable exports of a broken, starving country. The result is that 
Mr. Obama, in his first year in office, is putting into effect many of the harshest steps against North Korea 
that were advocated by conservatives in the Bush White House, including Vice President Dick Cheney.

The new approach, officials said, will also exploit elements of the Security Council resolution to try to close 
down the subsidiaries of North Korean missile makers in China, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East, where 
the North has its biggest customers.

_Xiyun Yang contributed reporting from Beijing. _


----------



## zipperhead_cop

Sorry, help the dumb guy out.  What is the point of that?  
"Hey, do you mind if we come aboard and prove that you are engaged in nuclear proliferation?"
"Yes I do.  Go pound salt."
"Okay, thanks, just asking.  Calm seas and fair winds!".

And what if they don't want to stop?  Can you open fire or disable a ship, then not board it and leave?  This doesn't make sense to me.  And KJI doesn't strike me as the kind to be impressed by sabre rattling.


----------



## a_majoor

Same rational as in almost any other "crisis" situation, make a grand gesture so you appear to be doing something......


----------



## CougarKing

And here we go again.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090618/ap_on_re_as/as_koreas_nuclear



> By HYUNG-JIN KIM, Associated Press Writer Hyung-jin Kim, Associated Press Writer – Thu Jun 18, 7:48 am ET
> SEOUL, South Korea – North Korea may fire a long-range ballistic missile toward Hawaii in early July, a Japanese news report said Thursday, as Russia and China urged the regime to return to international disarmament talks on its rogue nuclear program.
> 
> The missile, believed to be a Taepodong-2 with a range of up to 4,000 miles (6,500 kilometers), would be launched from North Korea's Dongchang-ni site on the northwestern coast, said the Yomiuri daily, Japan's top-selling newspaper. It cited an analysis by the Japanese Defense Ministry and intelligence gathered by U.S. reconnaissance satellites.
> 
> The missile launch could come between July 4 and 8, the paper said.
> 
> While the newspaper speculated the Taepodong-2 could fly over Japan and toward Hawaii, it said the missile would not be able to hit Hawaii's main islands, which are about 4,500 miles (7,200 kilometers) from the Korean peninsula.
> 
> A spokesman for the Japanese Defense Ministry declined to comment on the report. South Korea's Defense Ministry and the National Intelligence Service — the country's main spy agency — said they could not confirm it.
> 
> Tension on the divided Korean peninsula has spiked since the North conducted its second nuclear test on May 25 in defiance of repeated international warnings. The regime declared Saturday it would bolster its nuclear programs and threatened war in protest of U.N. sanctions taken for the nuclear test.
> 
> U.S. officials have said the North has been preparing to fire a long-range missile capable of striking the western U.S. In Washington on Tuesday, Gen. James Cartwright, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said it would take at least three to five years for North Korea to pose a real threat to the U.S. west coast.
> 
> President Barack Obama and South Korean President Lee Myung-bak met in Washington on Tuesday for a landmark summit in which they agreed to build a regional and global "strategic alliance" to persuade North Korea to dismantle all its nuclear weapons. Obama declared North Korea a "grave threat" to the world and pledged that the new U.N. sanctions on the communist regime will be aggressively enforced.
> 
> In Seoul, Vice Unification Minister Hong Yang-ho told a forum Thursday that the North's moves to strengthen its nuclear programs is "a very dangerous thing that can fundamentally change" the regional security environment. He said the South Korean government is bracing for "all possible scenarios" regarding the nuclear standoff.
> 
> The independent International Crisis Group think tank, meanwhile, said the North's massive stockpile of chemical weapons is no less serious a threat to the region than its nuclear arsenal.
> 
> It said the North is believed to have between 2,500 and 5,000 tons of chemical weapons, including mustard gas, phosgene, blood agents and sarin. These weapons can be delivered with ballistic missiles and long-range artillery and are "sufficient to inflict massive civilian casualties on South Korea."
> 
> "If progress is made on rolling back Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions, there could be opportunities to construct a cooperative diplomatic solution for chemical weapons and the suspected biological weapons program," the think tank said in a report released Thursday.
> 
> It also called on the U.S. to engage the North in dialogue to defuse the nuclear crisis, saying "diplomacy is the least bad option." The think tank said Washington should be prepared to send a high-level special envoy to Pyongyang to resolve the tension.
> 
> In a rare move, leaders of Russia and China used their meetings in Moscow on Wednesday to pressure the North to return to the nuclear talks and expressed "serious concerns" about tension on the Korean peninsula.
> 
> The joint appeal appeared to be a signal that Moscow and Beijing are growing impatient with Pyongyang's stubbornness. Northeastern China and Russia's Far East both border North Korea, and Pyongyang's unpredictable actions have raised concern in both countries.
> 
> After meetings at the Kremlin, Chinese President Hu Jintao joined Russian President Dmitry Medvedev in urging a peaceful resolution of the Korean standoff and the "swiftest renewal" of the now-frozen talks involving their countries as well as North and South Korea, Japan and the United States.
> 
> "Russia and China are ready to foster the lowering of tension in Northeast Asia and call for the continuation of efforts by all sides to resolve disagreements through peaceful means, through dialogue and consultations," their statement said.
> 
> The comments — contained in a lengthy statement that discussed other global issues — included no new initiatives, but it appeared to be carefully worded to avoid provoking Pyongyang. In remarks after their meetings, Medvedev made only a brief reference to North Korea, and Hu did not mention it.
> 
> South Korea's Lee said Wednesday in Washington that was essential for China and Russia to "actively cooperate" in getting the North to give up its nuclear program, suggesting the North's bombs program may trigger a regional arms race.
> 
> "If we acknowledge North Korea possessing nuclear programs, other non-nuclear countries in Northeast Asia would be tempted to possess nuclear weapons and this would not be helpful for stability in Northeast Asia," Lee said in a meeting with former U.S. officials and Korea experts, according to his office.
> 
> ___
> 
> Associated Press writers Shino Yuasa in Tokyo, Jae-soon Chang and Ji-youn Oh in Seoul and Mike Eckel in Moscow contributed to this report.


----------



## Yrys

Obama comments on N Korea 'test', 21 June 2009, BBC News
President Barack Obama says the US is "fully prepared" for a possible missile test 
by North Korea over the Pacific.

North Korea accuses Obama of war plot, June 22, 2009, The Daily Star
North Korea has accused US President Barack Obama of plotting a nuclear war on the 
communist nation by reaffirming a US assurance of security for South Korea, the North's 
state media said. In a first official response to last week's US-South Korean summit, the 
state-run weekly Tongil Sinbo said in its Saturday edition Obama and South Korean 
President Lee Myung-Bak "are trying to ignite a nuclear war".

"The US-touted provision of 'extended deterrence, including a nuclear umbrella' (for South 
Korea) is nothing but 'a nuclear war plan,'" Tongil Sinbo said. It said it wasn't a coincidence 
that the United States has brought "nuclear equipment into South Korea and its surroundings 
and staged massive war drills every day to look for a chance to invade North Korea."

Pyongyang has created weeks of tension by conducting a second nuclear test and test-firing
missiles.



U.S. Destroyer Shadows N. Korean Ship, June 21, 2009, NY Times

SEOUL — A North Korean cargo ship shadowed by a United States Navy destroyer 
was reportedly steaming toward Myanmar on Sunday, posing what could be the first 
test of *how far the United States and its allies will go under a new United Nations 
resolution to stop the North’s military shipments*.

The United States began tracking the 2,000-ton freighter Kang Nam after it left Nampo,
a port near Pyongyang, North Korea, on Wednesday. Pentagon officials have said they 
suspect the ship of carrying prohibited materials, but have declined to say where it may 
be headed. North Korea has said it would consider interception an “act of war” and act 
accordingly.

Over the weekend, the North’s state-run news media vowed to “respond to sanctions with 
retaliation.” It also threatened “unlimited retaliatory strikes” against South Korea if it 
cooperated with the United Nations Security Council sanctions.

A South Korean cable news channel, YTN, quoted an unidentified intelligence source on 
Sunday as saying that American authorities suspected the ship of carrying missiles or 
related parts. The network also said the Kang Nam was headed for Myanmar, a country 
long suspected of buying North Korean arms and providing transit services for North 
Korean vessels engaged in illicit trade.

The Kang Nam is the first North Korean vessel to be tracked under the resolution adopted 
by the United Nations Security Council on June 12 to punish North Korea for its May 25 
nuclear test. The resolution bans North Korean trafficking in a wide range of nuclear and 
conventional weaponry, and calls upon United Nations members to search North Korean 
ships, with their consent, if there are “reasonable grounds” to suspect that banned cargo 
is aboard. If the crew does not accept inspection on high seas, North Korea is required to 
direct the vessel to a port for inspection by local authorities there.

If the ship is heading to Myanmar, another nation defying international weapons sanctions, 
a port there would be unlikely to comply with the United Nations request.

Shortly after North Korea conducted its first nuclear test in 2006, the Kang Nam was 
detained in Hong Kong following a Security Council resolution banning trade in nuclear 
and ballistic missile technology. But then the ship was found to be carrying no cargo.
The potential high-seas confrontation over the Kang Nam came as United States defense 
officials planned to travel to South Korea, Japan and China this week to discuss how to 
enforce the sanctions. Last week, Washington urged banks to become more vigilant 
against financial transactions involving North Korea. It also said it has deployed a floating 
radar base near Hawaii to guard against a long-range North Korean missile.

The North’s hostility toward the outside world was also driving the country deeper into 
isolation. According to a report released Sunday by South Korea’s customs authorities, 
trade between the two Koreas plunged 38 percent from a year earlier to $106 million 
in May. It marked the ninth straight monthly decline in inter-Korean trade.


----------



## Yrys

NKorea threatens to harm US if attacked, The Daily Star

N Korea defends nuclear programme, BBC News

North Korea has boasted of being a "proud nuclear power" and warned the US 
that it will strike back if attacked. The statement came after US President Barack 
Obama said Washington was "fully prepared" for a possible North Korean missile 
test.

There have been recent warnings in South Korean and Japanese newspapers that 
the North is preparing another long-range missile launch. The UN toughened sanctions 
against the North after a nuclear test on 25 May.

The North has also recently test-fired a number of short-range missiles recently, and 
in April launched a long-range rocket - which it said was to put a satellite into orbit but 
which the US said was a missile test. Military analysts say North Korea's longest-range 
missile - the Taepodong-2 - has the potential range to reach Hawaii and parts of Alaska.


*'Grave mistake'*

"As long as our country has become a proud nuclear power, the US should take a correct 
look at whom it is dealing with," said the commentary in Rodong Sinmun, the newspaper 
of North Korea's ruling communist party. "It is a grave mistake for the US to think it will 
not be hurt if it ignores this and ignites the fuse of war on the Korean Peninsula."

The commentary was published after President Obama said the US military was ready to 
defend American territory. "This administration - and our military - is fully prepared for 
any contingencies," Mr Obama said in an interview to be aired by CBS television on 
Monday.

Asked if Washington was warning of a military response, Mr Obama said no. He added: 
"I don't want to speculate on hypotheticals. But I do want to give assurances to the 
American people that the T's are crossed and the I's are dotted."

Meanwhile, a US naval vessel is tracking a North Korean ship believed to be heading for 
Burma via Singapore. South Korea's YTN news reported, citing intelligence sources, that 
the ship was suspected of carrying illicit weapons in violation of sanctions agreed under 
a new UN resolution.

China and Russia - the country's traditional allies - approved the sanctions earlier this month,
 and called for North Korea to return to international talks on its nuclear programme. The UN 
resolution calls for inspections of ships to or from North Korea believed to be carrying goods 
connected to weapons of mass destruction. It also broadens the arms embargo and further 
cuts the North's access to the international financial system, but does not authorise the use 
of force.


----------



## Yrys

Hawaiians Shrug Off Missile Threat

HONOLULU — Hawaii has long lived with the threat of wipe out, whether by tsunami, 
volcano or foreign invader. Now the Obama administration says North Korea could 
launch a ballistic missile in the state’s direction — possibly around the Fourth of July, 
according to the Japanese news media — prompting the United States military to 
beef up defenses here.

Antimissile interceptors are in place, the Defense Department said, and Hawaiians 
watched the other day as a giant, towering radar commonly known as the golf ball 
set out to sea from the base where it is normally moored. But if lifelong residents 
like Gerald Aikau are on any state of alert, it would be the one telling him that his 
octopus, caught in the waters here with a spear and his bare hands, is overcooked.

“What are you going to do?” Mr. Aikau, 34, a commercial painter, said as he proudly 
grilled his catch at a beachfront park. “You are going to go sometime, whether it’s 
on a wave, or a missile, or your buddy knocking you down and you hit your head.”

Vulnerability, and a certain fatalism about it, are part of the fabric of life in this 
archipelago, 2,500 miles from the mainland and, as many residents seem to have 
memorized since the Obama administration raised the alarm last week, 4,500 miles 
from North Korea. People took comfort in the heavy, year-round military presence 
provided by several bases here but also wondered if it made the state more of a 
target.

In an interview Monday on CBS’s “Early Show,” President Obama, who was born and 
spent much of his youth here, said, “Our military is fully prepared for any contingencies” 
regarding North Korea.

Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates announced Thursday that the military had deployed 
ground-based interceptors and sea-based radar to help deflect any long-range missile 
from North Korea. Calls to Gov. Linda Lingle, a Republican, were referred to Maj. Gen. 
Robert G. F. Lee, the state’s defense department director, who suggested the threat was 
more saber-rattling from North Korea. He questioned whether its missiles had the 
technological capacity to go very far, but just the same, he said, the state was ready 
for hostile action.

“Our military assets should be able to protect us,” said General Lee, whose duties include 
civil defense. “We, like all states, are prepared for natural disasters down to terrorism.”
He said the state’s disaster sirens were working, and residents, as always, were advised 
to keep a three-day supply of food, water, medicine and other essentials in stock. “Out 
here by ourselves, we have to be a little more prepared, just in case help does not get 
here quickly from the mainland,” he said.

Of course, the specter of Pearl Harbor still figures prominently here, as well as the cat-
and-mouse of cold war maneuverings off the coast, including the mysterious loss of a 
Soviet ballistic-missile submarine 750 miles northwest of Oahu in 1968.

“We are first strike from Asia,” said State Representative Joseph M. Souki, 76, a Democrat, 
who still remembers the wave of anxiety that swept his neighborhood on Maui as Pearl 
Harbor was bombed. “It’s not like we are in Iowa.” Still, he said, “more than likely nothing 
is going to happen.” “Hawaii is like a pawn in a chess game,” he added.

The state can ill afford anything approximating a calamity. The recession has been blamed 
for a nearly 11 percent drop in the number of visitors here last year compared with the year 
before. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in May reached 7.4 percent, up from 
6.9 percent in April and the highest in three decades. The tourists that did come carried on 
as usual, taking surfing lessons, strolling Waikiki Beach and reflecting at the U.S.S. Arizona 
Memorial, whose park includes a display of old Polaris submarine-launched missiles.

“Send one of these babies up,” suggested Clifton Wannaker, 45, an accountant from South 
Dakota, when told of the North Korean threat. He knocked on the missile’s skin for good 
measure.

Standing at the shoreline in view of the Arizona Memorial, Steve Brecheen, 54, a pharmacist 
from Oklahoma City, seemed a bit more unnerved. “North Korea seems the most unstable 
government as far as a threat to the U.S. is concerned,” Mr. Brecheen said. He motioned to 
the memorial, which sits over the remains of the battleship sunk by the Japanese in the Pearl 
Harbor attack. “In 1941, some of these people didn’t think the Japanese were an extreme 
threat, and they got their minds changed pretty quickly,” he said.

But among Hawaiians, skepticism is mixed with annoyance and even anger that their state, 
hypothetically at least, could be a testing ground. “I think they would be stupid to do that test,” 
said Misioki Tauiliili, 39, a delivery truck driver, taking in the placid scene at a city beach near 
Waikiki. “The U.S. should go out there and shake them.” By that he meant the United States 
perhaps firing its own rockets in North Korea’s direction, “to test them.”

Mark N. Brown, 49, an artist painting nearby, was less bellicose. He said he took comfort in 
the steps the military had taken and remained concerned that an act of aggression by North 
Korea would lead to war. But, with a wry smile, he added that a neighboring island, far less 
populated but a bit closer to North Korea, would probably take the hit.

“It would hit Kauai,” he said. “We are on Oahu.”

Mele Connor, 55, a lifelong Hawaiian shopping with visitors from the mainland at a clothing store 
on Waikiki, laughed off the threat. “After North Korea, it will be somebody else,” she said. “They 
know Obama is from here, so they want something. Everybody wants something from our pretty 
little islands.”


----------



## CougarKing

An update: It appears that the North Korean ship being monitored by the USN has been carrying weapons destined for Myanmar, or Burma, another pariah state.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090622/ap_on_re_as/as_koreas_nuclear



> By HYUNG-JIN KIM, Associated Press Writer Hyung-jin Kim, Associated Press Writer – 1 hr 4 mins ago
> SEOUL, South Korea – A North Korean-flagged ship under close watch in Asian waters is believed to be heading toward Myanmar carrying small arms cargo banned under a new U.N. resolution, a South Korean intelligence official said Monday.
> 
> Still, analysts say a high seas interception — something North Korea has said it would consider an act of war — is unlikely.
> 
> The Kang Nam, accused of engaging in illicit trade in the past, is the first vessel monitored under the new sanctions designed to punish the North for its defiant nuclear test last month. The U.S. military began tracking the ship after it left a North Korean port on Wednesday on suspicion it was carrying illicit weapons.
> 
> A South Korean intelligence official said Monday that his agency believes the North Korean ship is carrying small weapons and is sailing toward the Myanmar city of Yangon.
> 
> The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity citing the sensitive nature of the information, said he could provide no further details.
> 
> Myanmar's military government, which faces an arms embargo from the U.S. and the European Union, reportedly has bought weapons from North Korea in the past.
> 
> The Irrawaddy, an online magazine operated by independent exiled journalists from Myanmar, reported Monday that the North Korean ship would dock at the Thilawa port, some 20 miles (30 kilometers) south of Yangon, in the next few days.
> 
> The magazine cited an unidentified port official as saying that North Korean ships have docked there in the past. The magazine's in-depth coverage of Myanmar has been generally reliable in the past.
> 
> South Korean television network YTN reported Sunday that the ship was streaming toward Myanmar but said the vessel appeared to be carrying missiles and related parts. The report cited an unidentified intelligence source in South Korea.
> 
> Kim Jin-moo, an analyst at Seoul's state-run Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, said the North is believed to have sold guns, artillery and other small weapons to Myanmar but not missiles, which it has been accused of exporting to Iran and Syria.
> 
> The U.N. sanctions, which toughen an earlier arms embargo against North Korea, ban the country from exporting all weapons and weapons-related material, meaning any weapons shipment to Myanmar would violate the resolution.
> 
> The Security Council resolution calls on all 192 U.N. member states to inspect North Korean vessels on the high seas "if they have information that provides reasonable grounds to believe that the cargo" contains banned weapons or material to make them. But that requires approval from the North.
> 
> If the North refuses to give approval, it must direct the vessel "to an appropriate and convenient port for the required inspection by the local authorities."
> 
> North Korea, however, is unlikely to allow any inspection of its cargo, making an interception unlikely, said Hong Hyun-ik, an analyst at the Sejong Institute think tank outside Seoul.
> 
> A senior U.S. military official told The Associated Press on Friday that a Navy ship, the USS John S. McCain, is relatively close to the North Korean vessel but had no orders to intercept it. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue.
> 
> Any chance for an armed skirmish between the two ships is low, analysts say, though the North Korean crew is possibly armed with rifles.
> 
> "It's still a cargo ship. A cargo ship can't confront a warship," said Baek Seung-joo of the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses.
> 
> Tension on the Korean peninsula has been running high since the North's May 25 nuclear test, with Pyongyang and Washington exchanging near-daily accusations against each other.
> 
> President Barack Obama assured Americans in an interview broadcast Monday that the U.S. is prepared for any move North Korea might make amid media reports that Pyongyang is planning a long-range missile test in early July.
> 
> "This administration — and our military — is fully prepared for any contingencies," Obama said during an interview with CBS News' "The Early Show."
> 
> Still, ever defiant, North Korea declared itself a "proud nuclear power" and warned Monday that it would strike if provoked.
> 
> "As long as our country has become a proud nuclear power, the U.S. should take a correct look at whom it is dealing with," the country's main Rodong Sinmun said in commentary. "It would be a grave mistake for the U.S. to think it can remain unhurt if it ignites the fuse of war on the Korean peninsula."


----------



## CougarKing

They are really asking for it(to be pulverized), aren't they?

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/090624/world/as_koreas_nuclear



> NKorea threatens US as Washington, allies watch for signs of another missile launch
> 1 hour, 3 minutes ago
> 
> 
> 
> By Hyung-Jin Kim, The Associated Press
> 
> 
> SEOUL, South Korea - North Korea threatened Wednesday to wipe the United States off the map as Washington and its allies watched for signs the regime will launch a series of missiles in the coming days.
> 
> 
> Off China's coast, a U.S. destroyer was tailing a North Korean ship suspected of transporting illicit weapons to Myanmar in what could be the first test of U.N. sanctions passed to punish the nation for an underground nuclear test last month.
> 
> 
> The Kang Nam left the North Korean port of Nampo a week ago with the USS John S. McCain close behind. The ship, accused of transporting banned goods in the past, is believed bound for Myanmar, according to South Korean and U.S. officials.
> 
> 
> The new U.N. Security Council resolution requires member states to seek permission to inspect suspicious cargo. North Korea has said it would consider interception a declaration of war and on Wednesday accused the U.S. of seeking to provoke another Korean War.
> 
> 
> "If the U.S. imperialists start another war, the army and people of Korea will ... wipe out the aggressors on the globe once and for all," the official Korean Central News Agency said.
> 
> 
> The warning came on the eve of the 59th anniversary of the start of the three-year Korean War, which ended in a truce in 1953, not a peace treaty, leaving the peninsula in state of war.
> 
> 
> The U.S. has 28,500 troops in South Korea to protect against an outbreak of hostilities.
> 
> 
> Tensions have been high since North Korea launched a long-range rocket in April and then conducted its second underground atomic test on May 25.
> 
> 
> Reacting to U.N. condemnation of that test, North Korea walked away from nuclear disarmament talks and warned it would fire a long-range missile.
> 
> 
> North Korea has banned ships from the waters off its east coast starting Thursday through July 10 for military exercises, Japan's Coast Guard said.
> 
> 
> South Korea's Yonhap news agency reported Wednesday that the North may fire a Scud missile with a range of up to 310 miles (500 kilometres) or a short-range ground-to-ship missile with a range of 100 miles (160 kilometres) during the no-sail period.
> 
> 
> A senior South Korean government official said the no-sail ban is believed connected to North Korean plans to fire short-or mid-range missiles. He spoke on condition of anonymity, citing department policy.
> 
> 
> U.S. defence and counterproliferation officials in Washington said they also expected the North to launch short-to medium-range missiles. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence.
> 
> 
> South Korea will expedite the introduction of high-tech unmanned aerial surveillance systems and "bunker-buster" bombs in response to North Korea's provocations, the Chosun Ilbo newspaper said, citing unidentified ruling party members.
> 
> 
> Meanwhile, a flurry of diplomatic efforts were under way to try getting North Korea to return to disarmament talks.
> 
> 
> Russia's top nuclear envoy, Alexei Borodavkin, said after meeting with his South Korean counterpart that Moscow is open to other formats for discussion since Pyongyang has pulled out of formal six-nation negotiations.
> 
> 
> In Beijing, top U.S. and Chinese defence officials also discussed North Korea. U.S. Defence Undersecretary Michele Flournoy was heading next to Tokyo and Seoul for talks.
> 
> South Korea has proposed high-level "consultations" to discuss North Korea with the U.S., Russia, China and Japan.
> 
> -
> 
> Associated Press writers Jae-soon Chang in Seoul; Pauline Jelinek, Pamela Hess and Lolita Baldor in Washington and Min Lee in Hong Kong contributed to this report.


----------



## OldSolduer

Here's my solution:

Hire Angelina Jolie as Lara Croft, Nuke Raider. Her mission? To seek out Kim Jong Il, Dear Leader, abduct him and subject him to a good spanking, by none other than Lara Croft.

But he'd probably enjoy that!!  ;D
Seriously, Kim Jong Il is asking for a good b!tch slapping.


----------



## Gunnar

Every now and again, you need to do something wholly raw, wholly indefensible, as a clear and stern warning that certain things are NOT to be considered.  Had the US simply nuked the North Korean capital when they starting rattling sabres about how kewl their nuclear program was, we wouldn't even be having these discussions.  Plus, any capability for command and control would have been wiped out.  We don't negotiate with terrorists, even if they do have their own flags.

I think it would be a horrible, horrible thing to do, or to have to do, but they have made clear that other military options simply won't be enough.  Fine.  You've set the game up at the big boys table...this is how hard the big boys hit.  Still wanna play?  

I have to wonder how many of the starved dead in the streets of that country would really care anyway....but what other clear, decisive action would make it crystal clear not only to Korea, but to others, that you don't hold the Western world, i.e., the civilized part of the planet, to ransom.  

Have I mentioned how horrible it would be?  But what other options are there to send a clear and urgent message, and to deter further attempts of that nature?


----------



## zipperhead_cop

Anybody have a concise, no BS assesment of the NK military, beyond the nukes?  I've heard the big numbers, but then Iraq had even bigger numbers and look at what they couldn't do.  Twice.  
Just curious how Korean War-Act II would trick out if it stuck to conventional means.


----------



## Jammer

Janes.com

PM me and i'll give you the DND password to access the subscriber files


----------



## zipperhead_cop

Much obliged!


----------



## CougarKing

A Burma WMD connection?



> *"'Burma's generals admire the North Koreans for standing up to the United States and wish they could do the same.' After an exchange of secret visits, North Korean armaments began to arrive in Burma... North Korean-made field artillery pieces... truck-mounted, multiple rocket launchers and possibly also surface-to-air missiles for its Chinese-supplied naval vessels... then came the tunneling experts. Most of Pyongyang's own defense industries, including its chemical and biological-weapons programs, and many other military as well as government installations are underground." /1,2*
> 
> "Myanmar's military government also has purchased on the open market technologies that are potentially usable in a nuclear program... In 2004, Myanmar's military junta was in negotiations to buy Scud missile parts from Pyongyang, but the Bush administration convinced Myanmar to back off." /3
> 
> 
> ---------------------
> /1 "Tunnels, Guns and Kimchi: North Korea’s Quest for Dollars – Part I". Bertil Lintner. Yale Global. Center for the Study of Globalization. Yale University. June 9 2009 <http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/display.article?id=12442>
> 
> /2 "N. Korea Digs Tunnels for Myanmar's Secretive Regime". Bertil Lintner. Asia Sentinel. The Korea Times. June 14 2009. <http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/opinon/2009/06/137_46782.html>
> 
> /3  "U.S. Keeps Close Eye On North Korean Ship". J. Solomon and Y. Dreazen. The Wall Street Journal. June 23 2009. <http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124571192210838865.html?mod=googlenews_wsj>


----------



## wannabe SF member

Is there a possibility of North-Korea developing enough nukes in the near future for MAD to apply in terms of their production capability?


----------



## CougarKing

Another sign of solidarity against North Korea.



> Agence France-Presse - 6/28/2009 2:05 PM GMT
> Japan, S.Korea in united stance against N.Korea
> South Korea and Japan "will never tolerate" a nuclear-armed North Korea, South Korean President Lee Myung-Bak said on Sunday after talks with Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso.
> 
> Lee and Aso agreed to press North Korea to abandon its nuclear programme amid Pyongyang's continued sabre-rattling, and called for China to play a greater role in persuading its ally to disarm, they said in a news conference.
> 
> "During the talks, we confirmed that we will never tolerate a nuclear-armed North Korea," Lee told reporters.
> 
> "Through implementing UN resolution 1874, we need to show North Korea that they will gain nothing by obtaining nuclear weapons," Lee said, referring to UN sanctions against Pyongyang for its recent nuclear and missile tests.
> 
> Aso said: "We agreed to strengthen cooperation between Japan, South Korea and the United States, and agreed on the need to deepen cooperation with China."
> 
> China, North Korea's main ally, has always favoured cautious diplomacy toward Pyongyang, wary of any moves that could push the isolated regime to collapse and potentially send millions of refugees streaming over its border.
> 
> The summit came as Pyongyang has stepped up its confrontational rhetoric amid global suspicions that Kim Jong-Il's administration is preparing to fire more missiles and stage a military exercise off the North's east coast.
> 
> Regional tension spiked after North Korea on May 25 carried out its second nuclear test, followed by missile launches.
> 
> North Korea has also abandoned six-party talks on its nuclear disarmament, which involved the two Koreas, the United States, China, Russia and Japan.
> 
> Lee and Aso discussed the idea of holding five-party talks excluding Pyongyang, "with an aim of making progress in the six-party talks," Aso said.
> 
> Tokyo and Seoul have led the push in East Asia against the North's increasingly antagonistic stance, in which Pyongyang has repeatedly warned of a military confrontation.
> 
> North Korea has vowed to build more nuclear bombs and to start a new weapons programme based on uranium enrichment in response to the UN sanctions.
> 
> The North Sunday renewed its verbal offensive, threatening to bolster its nuclear deterrence against the United States, a close ally of South Korea and Japan.
> 
> "We will strengthen our nuclear deterrence further for our self-defence to cope with outright US nuclear threats and nuclear war attempts," Pyongyang's ruling communist party newspaper Rodong Sinmun said.
> 
> Rodong said the North's nuclear drive could be justified by the "US introduction of nuclear weapons into South Korea," despite the denial by Seoul and Washington that there are US nuclear weapons on South Korean soil.
> 
> Lee's one-day trip to Tokyo was part of regular "shuttle summit diplomacy," a system that sees the leaders visit each other twice a year for talks on issues including diplomatic and economic matters.
> 
> Lee and Aso also agreed to hold a senior-official level meeting on July 1 to resume stalled negotiations on a bilateral free trade deal.
> 
> "The bilateral free trade agreement should be completed," Lee said, adding that "South Korea will fight protectionism" amid a global recession.
> 
> The South Korean president also said that he had asked Aso "to give Korean residents in Japan the right to vote in local assembly elections."
> 
> The majority of Korean residents in Japan are descendants of forced labourers brought to Japan during during its colonial rule of the Korean Peninsula in the first half of the 20th century.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

The incongruous said:
			
		

> Is there a possibility of North-Korea developing enough nukes in the near future for MAD to apply in terms of their production capability?



I was reading that NK is switching to Uranium from Plutonium. Experts believe that NK could refine around 4 tons of enriched Uranium. Bombs made from Uranium are easier to make and more likely to work than Plutonium. Perhaps the last test reinforced that point. Also their stock of Plutonium is quite small.


----------



## CougarKing

Good.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090630/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/us_us_nkorea_ship



> *Source: North Korean ship now going the other way*
> 
> 
> By PAULINE JELINEK, Associated Press Writer Pauline Jelinek, Associated Press Writer – 30 mins ago
> WASHINGTON – *A U.S. official says a North Korean ship has turned around and is headed back the way it came, after being tracked for days by American vessels on suspicion it was carrying illicit weapons.*
> 
> The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence, says it is unclear whether the Kang Nam is going back to its home port in North Korea or diverting elsewhere.
> 
> *The ship left a North Korean port on June 17 and is the first vessel monitored under U.N. sanctions that ban the regime from selling arms and nuclear-related material.
> 
> It was suspected the Kang Nam was going to Myanmar. But the U.S. official says that after a week-and-a half at sea, it turned around on Sunday or Monday. It was off the coast of Vietnam on Tuesday.*


----------



## Redeye

I read somewhere that DPRK officials claimed the Kang Nam was carrying a cargo of rice.  Pretty funny story for a country that has had a difficult time feeding itself to be exporting rice!  BBC did report today, however, that their economy seemed to show some growth and better than normal agricultural yields were partly responsible.


----------



## CougarKing

Yet another threat, this time aimed at Japan.



> NKorea threatens to shoot down Japanese spy planes
> 
> By KWANG-TAE KIM
> The Associated Press
> Saturday, June 27, 2009; 9:00 AM
> 
> SEOUL, South Korea -- North Korea threatened Saturday to shoot down any Japanese planes that enter its airspace, accusing Tokyo of spying near one of its missile launch sites.
> 
> The North has designated a no-sail zone off its eastern coast from June 25 to July 10 for military drills, raising concerns that it might test-fire short- or mid-range missiles in the coming days, in violation of a U.N. resolution.
> 
> North Korea's air force said Japan's E-767 surveillance aircraft conducted aerial espionage near the Musudan-ri missile site on its northeast coast Wednesday and Thursday.
> 
> The military "will not tolerate even a bit the aerial espionage by the warmongers of the Japanese aggression forces but mercilessly shoot down any plane intruding into the territorial air of the (North) even 0.001 mm," the air force said in a statement carried by the country's official Korean Central News Agency.
> ad_icon
> 
> An official from Japan's Defense Ministry said the country's planes regularly gather information on North Korea but declined to comment on the types of planes used or the locations monitored. He spoke on condition of anonymity, citing government policy.
> 
> The threat against alleged Japanese aerial espionage is rare, though the North has regularly complained of U.S. spy missions in its airspace.
> 
> Japan is very sensitive to North Korea's missile programs, as its islands lie within easy range. In 1998, a North Korean missile flew over Japan's main island. Tokyo has since spent billions of dollars on developing a missile shield with the United States and has launched a series of spy satellites primarily to watch developments in North Korea.
> 
> But in April, another rocket flew over Japan's main island, drawing a strong protest from Tokyo. Pyongyang claims it put a satellite into orbit, while the U.S. and its allies say it was really a test of the country's long-range missile technology.
> 
> The launch was one of a series of missile tests in recent months, and the communist regime further raised tensions by conducting a second underground nuclear test in May. Its actions have drawn harsh international condemnation and new U.N. sanctions.
> 
> Also Saturday, North Korea accused South Korea of planning to participate in U.S.-led cyber warfare exercises, calling it an "intolerable provocation."
> 
> North Korea "is fully ready for any form of high-tech war," said the Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of Korea, which handles relations with South Korea, according to KCNA.
> 
> The U.S. leads "Cyber Storm" exercises to test its defenses against computer hackers and invites officials from other countries to participate, but a South Korean Defense Ministry official said he had no information on the exercises. Calls to South Korea's spy agency seeking comment went unanswered on Saturday.
> 
> http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/27/AR2009062700480.html


----------



## bradlupa

North Korea test-fires two short-range missiles
Updated Thu. Jul. 2 2009 6:56 AM ET

The Associated Press

SEOUL, South Korea -- North Korea test-fired two short-range missiles Thursday, South Korea's Defence Ministry said, a move that aggravates the already high tensions following Pyongyang's recent nuclear test and UN sanctions imposed as punishment. 

The missiles were fired from the eastern coastal city of Wonsan on Thursday afternoon, a ministry official said on condition of anonymity citing department policy. He did not say what types of missiles were launched, but Yonhap news agency said they were ground-to-ship missiles. 

North Korea had earlier issued a no-sail zone in waters off its east coast through July 10 for military drills. That designation has been viewed as a prelude to such missile tests. 


Full story here


----------



## Soldier1stTradesman2nd

Curious to see how far this conflict is going to go. How long will the IC wait until NK reaches a certain threshold of nuclear (offensive) capability? Or will the IC continue to "condemn", "denounce" and otherwise amuse Dear Leader for the next 4-5 years until he has in fact armed his mil forces with nuke-tipped missiles, and becomes a credible threat (with intent AND capability)?

Or is the IC so confident that five years is too short of a time period for NK to reach this status, or that this is all a ruse to secure internal stability within NK during the "grooming" and transition period for the "Brilliant Comrade?"


----------



## CougarKing

Seems the number of missiles they fired is now 4, not just two as earlier said.




> Agence France-Presse - 7/2/2009 5:54 PM GMT
> NKorea fires four short-range missiles amid nuclear standoff
> 
> North Korea on Thursday test-fired four short-range missiles, South Korean military officials said, further fuelling tension sparked by its nuclear standoff with the international community.
> 
> The missiles -- apparently surface-to-ship ones -- were fired into the East Sea (Sea of Japan) between 5:20 pm (0820 GMT) and 9:20 pm, defence ministry officials were quoted as saying by Yonhap news agency.
> 
> All were launched from a base at Sinsang-ri, near the eastern coastal city of Wonsan, a spokesman was quoted as saying.
> 
> Other officials told the agency on condition of anonymity they landed about 100 kilometres (60 miles) off the coast, where the North has imposed a maritime ban until July 11 for what it calls a military drill.
> 
> Spokesmen from the defence ministry confirmed the first three firings to AFP but could not be reached for comment on the fourth.
> 
> It was the first military action the hardline communist state had taken since the United Nations on June 12 imposed tougher sanctions for its May 25 nuclear test.
> 
> South Korea's JoongAng Ilbo newspaper, quoting an intelligence source, said the North was likely to fire a series of short-range missiles in the coming days.
> 
> Apart from ground-to-ship weapons, it said these would likely include Scud-B missiles with a range of 340 kilometres (210 miles).
> 
> The North may also fire Rodongs, whose 1,300-kilometre range would likely be shortened to some 400 kilometre for the current round of testing, the paper predicted.
> 
> In the days after its atomic test -- the second since 2006 -- Pyongyang fired a total of six short-range missiles and renounced the truce brokered on the Korean peninsula after a civil war in 1950 to 1953.
> 
> In response to the UN resolution tightening curbs on its missile and atomic activities, it vowed to build more nuclear bombs.
> 
> US and South Korean officials believe ailing leader Kim Jong-Il, 67, is staging a show of strength to bolster his authority as he tries to put in place a succession plan involving his youngest son.
> 
> Japan's Prime Minister Taro Aso condemned Thursday's launches, telling reporters: "We have repeatedly warned that such a provocative act is not beneficial for North Korea's national interest."
> 
> The commander of US Northern Command, General Victor Renuart, told The Washington Times he did not think Pyongyang's missiles posed any real threat to the US.
> 
> "The nation has a very, very credible ballistic-missile defense capability," the paper quoted him as saying
> 
> "Our ground-based interceptors in Alaska and California ... give me a capability that if we really are threatened by a long-range ICBM (intercontinental ballistic missile) that I've got high confidence that I could interdict that flight before it caused huge damage to any US territory."
> 
> In Beijing, a US delegation Thursday met officials for talks on giving the UN sanctions more teeth.
> 
> The support of China, the North's sole major ally and largest trade partner, is seen as crucial in making the sanctions stick.
> 
> The delegation, led by Philip Goldberg -- the State Department's point man on coordinating implementation of the sanctions -- met officials from the foreign ministry.
> 
> His team includes members of the National Security Council and the departments of Treasury and Defence.
> 
> Goldberg declined comment on China's position.
> 
> "The US position is that we want all the various aspects of the resolutions to work," he told reporters. "It is our intention to fully implement the resolutions."
> 
> US warships have since mid-June been tracking a North Korean ship suspected of carrying weapons. The Kang Nam 1 was reportedly headed for Myanmar but US officials said Tuesday it has now turned back.
> 
> China said its top envoy on the North Korean nuclear issue, Wu Dawei, had begun a visit to Russia, the United States, Japan and South Korea.
> 
> They are members of a forum which has tried since 2003 to persuade the North to scrap its nuclear programmes in return for energy aid and diplomatic and security benefits.
> 
> The North announced it was quitting the talks after the UN censured its long-range rocket launch on April 5.
> 
> North and South Korea meanwhile held more talks about the fate of their last major joint business project, the Seoul-funded Kaesong industrial estate just north of the border.
> 
> But they failed to narrow differences or set the date for their next meeting, Seoul officials said.


----------



## bradlupa

Wonder when they are going to say that one was a scud missle.  I think that UN really needs to stand up at the table and really question why they are testing so much.  Really wondering why the first reports out were saying two and now it is 4.  Something fishy there


----------



## CougarKing

And the saber-rattling continues with more missiles fired.



> *NORTH Korea has test-fired seven missiles off its east coast, South Korean officials said, in what appeared to be a calculated message of defiance timed for the US Independence Day holiday.*
> 
> The launches fuelled regional tensions after the communist state's nuclear test in May, which coincided with the US Memorial Day holiday.
> 
> They came as Washington seeks support for tough enforcement of United Nations sanctions aimed at shutting down the North's nuclear and missile programmes.
> 
> Seoul's foreign ministry said the first four weapons launched into the Sea of Japan (East Sea) were ballistic missiles, which the North is banned from firing under various Security Council resolutions.
> 
> South Korea's military said the fifth, sixth and seventh missiles were of the same type. The seventh was fired at 5.40 pm (0840 GMT).
> 
> It was the first time in three years that the North had fired multiple ballistic missiles. It test-fired a long-range Taepodong-2 missile, along with six and mid-range missiles, on US Independence Day in 2006.
> 
> http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25732165-38196,00.html


----------



## zipperhead_cop

Would I be wrong in thinking that all this is doing is making it impossible for China to support them?  Is there any serious positive side that can emerge from this for NK?


----------



## CougarKing

It seems North Korea has launched a "cyber offensive". And Kim Jong Il makes another rare appearance:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090708/ap_on_re_as/as_skorea_cyber_attack



> Officials: N. Korea believed behind cyber attacks
> Hyung-jin Kim, Associated Press Writer – Wed Jul 8, 7:53 am ET
> SEOUL, South Korea – South Korean intelligence officials believe North Korea or pro-Pyongyang forces committed cyber attacks that paralyzed major South Korean and U.S. government Web sites, aides to two lawmakers said Wednesday.
> 
> The sites of 11 South Korean organizations, including the presidential Blue House and the Defense Ministry, went down or had access problems since late Tuesday, according to the state-run Korea Information Security Agency. Agency spokeswoman Ahn Jeong-eun said 11 U.S. sites suffered similar problems. She said the agency is investigating the case with police and prosecutors.
> 
> In the U.S., the Treasury Department, Secret Service, Federal Trade Commission and Transportation Department Web sites were all down at varying points over the July 4 holiday weekend and into this week, according to American officials inside and outside the government.
> 
> Others familiar with the U.S. outage, which is called a denial of service attack, said that the fact that the government Web sites were still being affected three days after it began signaled an unusually lengthy and sophisticated attack. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak on the matter.
> 
> The Korea Information Security Agency also attributed the attacks to denial of service.
> 
> Yang Moo-jin, a professor at Seoul's University of North Korean Studies, said he doubts whether the impoverished North has the capability to knock down the Web sites.
> 
> But Hong Hyun-ik, an analyst at the Sejong Institute think tank, said the attack could have been done by either North Korea or China, saying he "heard North Korea has been working hard to hack into" South Korean networks.
> 
> On Wednesday, the National Intelligence Service told a group of South Korean lawmakers it believes that North Korea or North Korean sympathizers "were behind" the attacks, according to an aide to one of lawmakers who was briefed on the information.
> 
> An aide to another lawmaker who was briefed also said the NIS suspects North Korea or its followers were responsible.
> 
> The aides spoke on condition of anonymity and refused to allow the names of the lawmakers they work for to be published, citing the classified nature of the information.
> 
> Both aides said the information was delivered in writing to lawmakers who serve on the National Assembly's intelligence committee.
> 
> The National Intelligence Service — South Korea's main spy agency — declined to confirm the information.
> 
> South Korea's Yonhap news agency said military intelligence officers were looking at the possibility that the attack may have been committed by North Korean hackers and pro-North Korea forces in South Korea. South Korea's Defense Ministry said it could not confirm the report.
> 
> Earlier Wednesday, the NIS said in a statement that 12,000 computers in South Korea and 8,000 computers overseas had been infected and used for the cyber attack.
> 
> The agency said it believed the attack was "thoroughly" prepared and committed by hackers "at the level of a certain organization or state." It said it was cooperating with the American investigators to examine the case.
> 
> South Korean media reported in May that North Korea was running a cyber warfare unit that tries to hack into U.S. and South Korean military networks to gather confidential information and disrupt service.
> 
> An initial investigation in South Korea found that many personal computers were infected with a virus program ordering them to visit major official Web sites in South Korea and the U.S. at the same time, Korean information agency official Shin Hwa-su said. There has been no immediate reports of similar cyber attack in other Asian countries.
> 
> Yonhap said that prosecutors have found some of the cyber attacks on the South Korean sites were accessed from overseas. Yonhap, citing an unnamed prosecution official, said the cyber attack used a method common to Chinese hackers.
> 
> Prosecutors were not immediately available for comment.
> 
> Shin, the Information Security Agency official, said the initial probe had not yet uncovered evidence about where the cyber outages originated. Police also said they had not discovered where the outages originated. Police officer Jeong Seok-hwa said that could take several days.
> 
> Some of the South Korean sites remained unstable or inaccessible Wednesday. The site of the presidential Blue House could be accessed, but those for the Defense Ministry, the ruling Grand National Party and the National Assembly could not.
> 
> Ahn said there were no immediate reports of financial damage or leaking of confidential national information. The alleged attacks appeared aimed only at paralyzing Web sites, she said.
> 
> South Korea's Defense Ministry and Blue House said that there has been no leak of any documents.
> 
> ___
> 
> Associated Press writers Jae-soon Chang and Wanjin Park in Seoul and Lolita C. Baldor in Washington contributed to this report.
> 
> (This version CORRECTS to remove references to sympathizers in South Korea.)





> NKorea's Kim pays homage to late father
> 
> SEOUL (AFP) - North Korea's leader Kim Jong-Il, appearing gaunt and thin, made a rare televised appearance Wednesday to pay homage to his late father Kim Il-Sung at a national memorial service.
> 
> 
> It was only the second time that contemporaneous footage of the 67-year-old has been aired on state television since his reported stroke last August.
> 
> 
> Kim limped slightly as he entered Pyongyang Indoor Stadium and took a seat on stage, a video clip seen in Seoul showed.
> 
> 
> The film showed the leader with thinning hair when he bowed his head for a brief silent tribute to mark the 15th anniversary of his father's death.
> 
> 
> Kim was last shown at an event when he attended the first meeting of the country's new parliament in April.
> 
> 
> This year's anniversary comes amid high international tensions over the communist state's missile launches and its May nuclear test.
> 
> 
> US and South Korean officials believe the apparently ailing leader is staging a show of strength to bolster his authority as he tries to put in place a succession plan involving his youngest son, Jong-Un.
> 
> 
> Earlier in the day Kim visited Pyongyang's Kumsusan Memorial Palace, where the embalmed body of his father lies inside a glass coffin.
> 
> 
> He was accompanied by top military officials including defence minister Kim Yong-Chun, the official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported.
> 
> 
> State media has carried a series of hagiographical reports on Kim Il-Sung's "immortal feats," and his son's achievements in preserving the legacy, in an apparent attempt to bolster support for Jong-Il.
> 
> 
> The two Kims are the subject of an all-embracing personality cult. Kim Il-Sung was declared president for eternity after he died of a heart attack on July 8, 1994 at the age of 82.
> 
> 
> Documentaries on the late leader are being broadcast on television and in cinemas, KCNA said.
> 
> 
> "The films show impressively the great life of the President who had converted the motherland into a country the master of which is the popular masses, always finding himself among the people," it said.
> 
> 
> "He willingly took boiled rice mixed with cereals, saying that when the people eat boiled millet, we should take the same food."
> 
> 
> At the memorial service, ceremonial head of state Kim Yong-Nam described "Great Leader" Kim Il-Sung as a "peerlessly great man who the Korean people greeted and held in high esteem for the first time in the history of spanning five thousand years."
> 
> 
> He described Kim Il-Sung was an "invincible and iron-willed commander who ushered in a new era of the anti-imperialist struggle."
> 
> 
> Soldiers, civilians and schoolchildren laid floral baskets before statues of the late Kim in various parts of the country, KCNA said.
> 
> 
> An "endless stream" of people was said to have visited a huge bronze statue at Pyongyang's Mansu Hill unveiled in 1972 to mark his 60th birthday.
> 
> A remembrance concert at a Pyongyang theatre began with a female solo and a chorus singing "Everlasting Smile of the President," the music pervading the building "with boundless reverence for the peerlessly great man," KCNA said.


----------



## CougarKing

Beijing's concerns, as stated in the article, may later translate into their pulling their support for Kim Jong Il's regime once and for all.

http://www.asiasentinel.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1960&Itemid=179



> *Top China Advisor Sees Possible New Korean War*
> Tag it:Written by Mark O'Neill
> Monday, 06 July 2009
> *This time Kim Jong-Il may not be bluffing
> 
> In an alarming analysis in an official Chinese publication, a senior advisor to the Chinese government expects North Korea to launch a war on the South in the belief that it has overwhelming military superiority.
> 
> Zhang Lianggui, a professor of International Strategy at the Central Communist Party School in Beijing, also writes that he regards Pyongyang's nuclear program as posing a significant and unprecedented danger to China. *
> 
> Zhang, who has been at the school since 1989, is a specialist on North Korea, where he studied at Kim Il-Sung University in Pyongyang from 1964-1968. His analysis, in the June 16 issue of World Affairs magazine, is one of the most critical of the North ever to appear in an official publication. It reflects Beijing's rising anger with its neighbor and frustration that it can do so little to change its nuclear policy – despite the fact that the country relies upon it for supplies of food and oil.
> 
> *The first generation of Communist leaders had strong sympathy for Kim Il-Sung, who studied at secondary school in northeast China, spoke Mandarin and fought with Chinese forces against the Japanese. The current leaders have no such feeling for his son, whom they regard as a bandit*.
> 
> In the magazine, Zhang wrote that the world underestimates the magnitude of the risk on the Korean Peninsula.
> 
> "If we look at the situation as it is, the likelihood of a military confrontation on the Korean Peninsula is very high," he wrote. "It will start on the sea and then could spread to the 38th parallel. If a war breaks out, it is very difficult to forecast how it would develop. North Korea believes it now has nuclear weapons and has become stronger. It believes that it has overwhelming military superiority over the south and would certainly win a war," he said.
> 
> Since the end of the Korean war in June 1953, the North has never recognized the Northern Limit Line (NLL) which the United States designated at the time as the sea boundary between the two sides and which the South accepts. On January 17, it repeated its refusal to recognize the boundary. A scene of bloody clashes between the two sides, the area contains 2,500 islands and is rich in fishing resources.
> 
> There has been a gradual escalation in tension since January, when the North announced a “state of total war” with the South. It has since then tested long-range missiles and a nuclear bomb.
> 
> *Zhang also said that the North's nuclear tests pose “a risk that it [China] had never faced for thousands of years.” Nuclear tests by the US, Russia, China, Britain and France were carried out in deserts or remote places far from population centers. But the North's tests are just 85 km from the Chinese border, Changbai county in Jilin province, and 180 km from Yanji, a city of 400,000 people.
> 
> "The tests are close to densely populated areas of East Asia. If there were an accident, it would not only make the Korean nation homeless but also turn to nothing plans to revive the northeast of China," he wrote, asking why the tests were far from Pyongyang but not far from China.
> 
> "The danger for China is extremely grave. We have not paid sufficient attention to this risk. If we cannot bring about a denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, mankind will pay a heavy price, especially the countries bordering Korea," he wrote.
> 
> Pyongyang, he said, has never liked the six-party talks that have been trying, with Beijing's help, to get the North to relinquish its nuclear program because it regards the matter as essentially a bilateral issue to be settled with the United States alone. He does not believe North Korea will return to the stalled talks.
> 
> "North Korea has turned from being a non-nuclear state into a nuclear one. In addition, it has at least 800,000 tonnes of heavy fuel [under terms of an earlier shut down of the country's main nuclear reactor]. The six-party talks have fulfilled their historical mission."
> 
> Zhang said that Kim Jong-Il is racing to fulfill the mission given to him by his father before he hands over power to his successor, expected to be his youngest son Kim Jong-woon, 25.
> 
> This includes making North Korea a nuclear state, a symbol of a powerful country: developing missiles capable of delivering these nuclear weapons, re-negotiating the NLL and obtaining possession of the five major islands in the western sea and their rich fishing grounds, using nuclear weapons to create a new international environment and achieve reunification.
> 
> Zhang's assessment of Pyongyang reflects Beijing's anger against North Korea and inability to influence policy there.*
> 
> "Negotiating with North Korea is like negotiating with the mafia which is blackmailing you," said Wang Wen, a veteran Chinese journalist. *"Beijing continues to supply the North with food, oil, consumer goods and other items it needs. The North does not pay. It [China] could cut off the supply, which would lead to a collapse of the regime. That would mean a unified Korea dominated by the United States. Pyongyang knows this and continues to blackmail China, like the mafia."
> 
> He said that, to prevent this scenario, Beijing has continued to keep the regime afloat. "For years, it has been pushing the North to follow its example of economic reform and not political reform. The Kaesong industrial park is a small step in this direction, but there is nothing else."*
> 
> The park, a joint venture between North and South Korea10 km north of the demilitarized zone, employed 40,000 North Korean workers in more than 75 South Korean factories as of July last year. In June, the North demanded new average salaries of US$300 a month, up from US$75, which the South has ruled as unacceptable. The wages go largely to the North Korean government.
> 
> "Beijing understands very well the mind-set of Kim Jong-Il," said Wang. "It is the same as that of Mao Zedong when he built China's nuclear bomb in the 1960s, when his people were starving. The Soviet Union did not help and the US wanted to bomb the site, but it built the bomb anyway. North Korea today is more isolated than China was then, so it needs the bomb even more."


----------



## a_majoor

From a rational point of view, a military assault on the ROK by the DPRK would be a no win operation. Any initial gains would be overturned by a US led counter attack, and even absent that, the North Korean army would probably vaporize once the soldiers were able to gain access to the riches of the South. The economy of the DPRK would not be able to deal with the logistical demands of any long term military operation either (and this assumes the Chinese would not close the logistics lifeline if such an operation was undertaken).

Of course, we are not dealing with a rational regime, and many of the organs that run the DPRK are compromised by the need to maintain the favour of the "Dear Leader". I have seen no evidence that a  Count Claus von Stauffenberg exists inside the DPRK and it seems to be the nature of these sorts of regimes that people will go with the regime until it is obviously collapsing around them. (You might note that there was a resistance movement against Hitler as far back as 1938, but they could never get enough support to take action so long as Hitler led a successful regime).

Thinking back to Robert Kaplan's article, a military operation, especially once it begins to go sour, may trigger a civil war within the DPRK as generals fight to claim resource bases and essentially become territorial warlords to preserve their own power and position. The Chinese may well be drawn into such a war simply to preserve their own backyard from the effects of a Korean war, especially floods of North Korean refugees seeking food and shelter, and nuclear armed warlords on their border. They would also be worried about the effects of the aftermath of a war, particularly the influence of the United States on a reunified Korea, and the attitude of the Koreans themselves (particularly if they believe that the Chinese somehow encouraged the DPRK or gave the DPRK the ability to start the war in the first place).

The DPRK was an interesting and amusing cats paw for the Chinese for many decades, allowing them to distract potential rivals like the United States, the ROK and Japan for very little investment on their part, but now the risks have escalated far beyond any possible rewards, and I believe the Chinese will take positive steps to restrain the DPRK for benefit of China. Throttling the flow of food and oil to the DPRK is the best, easiest and lowest risk option, and also involves little loss of "face" for the Chinese, I predict this is in fact the means they will go about it.


----------



## CougarKing

Bad news for this dictator.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/090712/world/international_us_korea_north_kim



> North Korea leader Kim Jong-il has pancreatic cancer: report
> 
> 45 minutes ago
> 
> SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korean leader Kim Jong-il has pancreatic cancer, South Korean broadcaster YTN said on Monday in an unsourced news flash.
> 
> Kim's health is one of the most closely guarded secrets in the reclusive communist state.
> 
> 
> (Reporting by Jack Kim, Editing by Dean Yates)


----------



## Sonnyjim

Anybody know the lifespan of somebody that contracts pancreatic cancer? I'm sure he'll be spending whatever it takes to make sure he has the best treatment available, but just curious.


----------



## dapaterson

An interesting report on the hermit kingdom.  Despicable, amoral and (well, I would say criminal, but that's far too tame a word).

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/asia-pacific/2009/07/20097165415127287.html



> ...
> But among the accounts they carried with them is one of the most shocking yet to emerge – namely the use of humans, specifically mentally or physically handicapped children, to test North Korea's biological and chemical weapons.
> 
> ...
> 
> The former military captain says it was in the early 1990s, that he watched his then commander wrestle with giving up his 12-year-old daughter who was mentally ill.
> 
> The commander, he says, initially resisted, but after mounting pressure from his military superiors, he gave in.
> 
> Im watched as the girl was taken away. She was never seen again.
> 
> One of Im's own men later gave him an eyewitness account of human-testing.
> 
> Asked to guard a secret facility on an island off North Korea's west coast, Im says the soldier saw a number of people forced into a glass chamber.
> 
> "Poisonous gas was injected in," Im says. "He watched doctors time how long it took for them to die."
> 
> Other North Korean defectors have long alleged that the secretive nation has been using political prisoners as experimental test subjects.
> 
> Some have detailed how inmates were shipped from various concentration camps to so-called chemical "factories".


----------



## CougarKing

A few more notable updates on the diplomatic front:



> Agence France-Presse - 7/23/2009 8:20 PM GMT
> *Clinton trades jibes with 'no friends' North Korea
> US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Thursday that North Korea had "no friends left" to defend it from nuclear sanctions, triggering vitriolic defiance from the Stalinist regime.
> 
> Pyongyang hurled invective at "schoolgirl" Clinton and declared disarmament talks dead, as she told Asia's largest security forum that international efforts to squeeze the North over its atomic programme were paying off.
> 
> "They have no friends left that will protect them from the international community's efforts to move toward denuclearisation," Clinton told the Association of Southeast Asian Nations Regional Forum (ARF) in Phuket.
> 
> "I was gratified by how many countries from throughout the region stood up and expressed directly to the North Korean delegation their concern over the provocative behaviour we have seen over the past few months."
> 
> In Phuket, Clinton has met counterparts from China and Russia, two other ARF heavyweights that have traditionally been lukewarm about forthright action against North Korea. *
> North Korean delegates appeared agitated as they tried to organise a rare news conference just before Clinton was supposed to speak in the press area of a seaside hotel in the Thai resort island of Phuket.
> 
> Regime officials described Clinton's renewed offer of a package of incentives in return for disarmament as "nonsense," and lambasted the top US diplomat as unintelligent, a "funny lady" and a "primary schoolgirl."
> 
> "Hearing about the comprehensive package, I should say this is basically nonsense," roving ambassador Ri Hung-Sik said, vowing no dialogue until Washington changed its "deep-rooted hostile policy."
> 
> "The six-party talks are already dead," Ri added, referring to negotiations with the United States, Russia, China, Japan and South Korea which Pyongyang quit after the UN Security Council censured it for a rocket launch in April.
> 
> *North Korea then conducted an underground nuclear test in May, triggering a Security Council resolution for beefed-up inspections of shipments going to and from the country and an expanded arms embargo.
> 
> Pyongyang's state media took an even more venomous line against Clinton, who earlier this week said the North Koreans were acting out like "unruly teenagers."
> 
> "Sometimes she looks like a primary schoolgirl and sometimes a pensioner going shopping," a foreign ministry spokesman was quoted as saying in attacking her "vulgar" remarks.
> 
> Meanwhile, the State Department hit back Thursday saying the unflattering characterizations of Clinton might better describe the regime in Pyongyang itself. *
> 
> "What is vulgar is that the North Korean government chooses to harvest missiles rather than enough food for its people," declared State Department Philip Crowley in defense of his boss.
> 
> "And what is unintelligent is the path that the North Korean government has chosen. It's a dead-end which dooms the North Korean people to a dismal future," he said.
> 
> Clinton outlined possible incentives for North Korea including "significant energy and economic assistance," but only if it agreed to "full and verifiable denuclearisation."
> 
> "In short, our approach isolates North Korea, imposes meaningful pressure to force changes in its behaviour and provides an alternative path that would serve everyone's interests."
> 
> Clinton ramped up concerns over Pyongyang's activities earlier this week when she spoke of concerns that it was transferring weapons and nuclear technology to fellow pariah state Myanmar.
> 
> But she said Thursday that even Myanmar had now shown "encouraging" support for enforcing the sanctions against North Korea, after her aides held a rare meeting late Wednesday with a delegation from Myanmar's junta.
> 
> Myanmar had helped turn away a North Korean ship headed for the country last month, she said, noting the "positive" direction shown by the ruling generals while warning that change would not come overnight.
> 
> Clinton, who flew out of Phuket late Thursday, had urged the ARF members to deny suspect North Korean ships access to ports and help to enforce financial sanctions on firms linked to nuclear procurement.
> 
> A statement issued by the ARF at the end of the forum said ministers "of several countries" condemned North Korea's missile and nuclear tests and urged a resumption of the six-party talks.
> 
> But it included a paragraph saying that the talks "had already come to an end" and that Pyongyang "did not recognise and totally rejected" the UN resolutions.
> 
> It said North Korea "briefed the meeting of the fact that the ongoing aggravated situation on the Korean peninsula is the product of the hostile policy of the United States against her."
> 
> The US and Myanmar delegations also discussed the treatment of democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi, who is on trial over an incident in which a US man swam to her house.


----------



## CougarKing

And now ex-Pres. Bill Clinton meets with Kim Jong Il to try to intercede for the two detained US journalists.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090804/ap_on_re_as/as_nkorea_journalists_held/



> *Bill Clinton meets with NKorean leader Kim Jong Il*
> By JEAN H. LEE, Associated Press Writer Jean H. Lee, Associated Press Writer
> 1 hr 55 mins ago
> 
> SEOUL, South Korea – Former President Bill Clinton met Tuesday with North Korean leader Kim Jong Il on the first day of a surprise mission to Pyongyang to negotiate the release of two Americans, holding "exhaustive" talks on a wide range of topics, state-run media said.
> 
> Clinton "courteously" conveyed a verbal message from President Barack Obama, the official Korean Central News Agency said in a report from Pyongyang. Kim expressed his thanks, and engaged Clinton in a "wide-ranging exchange of views on matters of common concern," the report said.
> 
> White House spokesman Robert Gibbs, however, denied Clinton went with a message from Obama. "That's not true," he told reporters.
> 
> Clinton was in communist North Korea on a mission to secure the freedom of Americans Euna Lee and Laura Ling, reporters for former Vice President Al Gore's Current TV media venture who were arrested along the Chinese-North Korean border in March and sentenced in June to 12 years of hard labor for illegal entry and engaging in "hostile acts."
> 
> His landmark visit, which was not announced in advance by North Korea or the U.S., comes at a time of heightened tensions between Washington and Pyongyang, foes during the Korean War of the 1950s, over the regime's nuclear program.
> 
> North Korea in recent months has conducted a nuclear test and test-fired an array of ballistic missiles in violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions, with Washington leading the push to punish Pyongyang for its defiance.
> 
> It's only the second visit to Pyongyang by a former U.S. leader. Jimmy Carter traveled to North Korea for talks with Kim's father, Kim Il Sung, in 1994 in a groundbreaking meeting during a time of similar tensions.
> 
> Clinton's meeting with Kim would be the notoriously reclusive North Korean leader's first with a prominent Western figure since Kim reportedly suffered a stroke a year ago, sparking questions about the future of the nation he controls with absolute authority.
> 
> Kim, said to have a taste for fine wines and fancy gourmet food, also is believed to suffer from chronic diabetes and heart disease. The man who once sported a noticeable pot belly has appeared gaunt and gray in recent months.
> 
> Though Clinton was in North Korea on a private basis, his visit was treated by North Korea as a high-profile visit, with senior officials — including Kim Kye Gwan, the vice foreign minister who serves as the country's chief nuclear negotiator — meeting him on the tarmac.
> 
> Footage from the APTN television news agency showed the arriving Clinton exchanging warm handshakes with the officials and accepting a bouquet of flowers from a schoolgirl.
> 
> Kim later hosted a banquet for Clinton at the state guesthouse, Radio Pyongyang and the Korean Central Broadcasting Station reported.
> 
> Photos in state-run media of the visit showed Kim, with a broad smile, standing next to a solemn-looking Clinton. The two also posed with Clinton's party in front of a mural, and another picture showed the men and others seated around a conference table.
> 
> Though Clinton does not hold office, his stature and good relations with Pyongyang could yield positive results, analysts said.
> 
> "This is a very potentially rewarding trip. Not only is it likely to resolve the case of the two American journalists detained in North Korea for many months, but it could be a very significant opening and breaking this downward cycle of tension and recrimination between the U.S. and North Korea," Mike Chinoy, author of "Meltdown: The Inside Story of the North Korean Nuclear Crisis," said in Beijing.
> 
> There was no word in state media on the status of Clinton's negotiations to secure the release of Ling, 32, and Lee, 36. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton last month urged North Korea to grant the women amnesty, saying they were remorseful and that their families were anguished.
> 
> Lee, a South Korean-born U.S. citizen, is married and has a 4-year-old daughter in Los Angeles; a native Californian, Ling is the married younger sister of TV journalist Lisa Ling.
> 
> Clinton's administration had rocky but relatively good relations with Pyongyang, and both he and Gore, his vice president, had been named as possible envoys to bring back Lee and Ling. Also mentioned was New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, who in the 1990s traveled twice to North Korea to secure the freedom of detained Americans.
> 
> However, the decision to send the former president was kept quiet. A senior U.S. official told reporters traveling Tuesday with Hillary Rodham Clinton that the White House would not comment on the trip to Pyongyang until the mission was complete.
> 
> "While this solely private mission to secure the release of two Americans is on the ground, we will have no comment," Gibbs, the White House spokesman, said later in a statement from Washington. "We do not want to jeopardize the success of former President Clinton's mission."
> 
> In New York, the Committee to Protect Journalists said it was encouraged by reports about Clinton's trip.
> 
> "This is welcome news and we are pleased to see movement in this case," said Bob Dietz, the group's Asia program coordinator. "The fate of these two women should not be linked to broader issues on the Korean peninsula, and to see both sides make a move toward the release of these reporters will bring some relief to them, their families and friends."
> 
> ___
> 
> Associated Press writers Jae-soon Chang in Seoul, Matthew Lee at Naval Station Rota, Spain, and AP researcher Jasmine Zhao in Beijing contributed to this report.
> 
> ___
> 
> On the Net:
> 
> http://www.lauraandeuna.com


----------



## dustinm

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hM96sRn69bkN1XDLqb2_pkmFxqdgD99S8VAO0

Reproduced under the Fair Dealing provision of the _Copyright Act_



> SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — North Korean leader Kim Jong Il has issued a "special pardon" to two American journalists convicted of sneaking into the country illegally, and he ordered them released during a visit by former U.S. President Bill Clinton, North Korean media reported Tuesday.
> 
> The release of Laura Ling and Euna Lee was a sign of North Korea's "humanitarian and peaceloving policy," the Korean Central News Agency reported.
> 
> Clinton, who arrived in North Korea earlier in the day on an unannounced visit, met with the reclusive and ailing Kim — his first meeting with a prominent Western figure since his reported stroke nearly a year ago.
> 
> North Korea accused Ling, 32, and Lee, 36, of sneaking into the country illegally in March and engaging in "hostile acts," and the nation's top court sentenced them in June to 12 years of hard labor.



I wonder what the DPRK propaganda machine will make of this?


----------



## Rifleman62

Just great, raise a little hell and you get a former POTUS with a somewhat "rock star" reputation come hair in place to your house to ask for a favor. You betta that the Obama White House gave tact approval to this, in spite of the"private" travel arrangements. NBC, repeated on Global calls it "a foreign policy coup for President Obama".

Give me a break. What's next?


----------



## dustinm

Rifleman62 said:
			
		

> Just great, raise a little hell and you get a former POTUS with a somewhat "rock star" reputation come hair in place to your house to ask for a favor. You betta that the Obama White House gave tact approval to this, in spite of the"private" travel arrangements. NBC, repeated on Global calls it "a foreign policy coup for President Obama".
> 
> Give me a break. What's next?



Jimmy Carter did something similar back in '94, though that was to prevent nuclear war (if I remember.) I remember it from a documentary, but this page seems to be a good overview: http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1316/is_n12_v29/ai_20089207/


----------



## CougarKing

In this photo released by Korean Central News Agency via Korea News Service in Tokyo, former U.S. President Bill Clinton, right, meets with North Korean Leader Kim Jong Il, left, front, in Pyonggyang, North Korea,Tuesday, Aug. 4, 2009. At Clinton's right is former White House chief of staff John Podesta, others are unidentified. Clinton met Tuesday with North Korean leader Kim Jong Il on the first day of a surprise visit to Pyongyang, holding 'exhaustive' talks that covered a wide range of topics, state-run media said. (AP Photo/Korean Central News Agency via Korea News Service) JAPAN OUT 






Former U.S. president Bill Clinton (seated L) and North Korea's leader Kim Jong-il (seated R) pose for a picture in Pyongyang in this photo released by North Korean official news agency KCNA August 4, 2009. REUTERS/KCNA






U.S. journalists Laura Ling (L) and Euna Lee (2nd R) head to a chartered plane at an airport in Pyongyang August 5, 2009. REUTERS/Kyodo






A photo released by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency shows former US President Bill Clinton greeting two US journalists Laura Ling (in green) and Euna Lee (red) after winning their release from the communist country as they leave Pyongyang airport to the US in a chartered plane. Meanwhile, the hardline communist state savoured its highest-level American visit in almost a decade. (AFP/KCNA via KNS)






American journalists Laura Ling (top) and Euna Lee disembark from the plane that brought them back from North Korea in Burbank, California August 5, 2009. Former President Bill Clinton met with North Korean leader Kim Jong-il to release the two women after months of detention. REUTERS/Danny Moloshok (UNITED STATES POLITICS IMAGES OF THE DAY)






Freed U.S. journalist Euna Lee © is embraced by her husband Michael Saldate (top) and daughter Hana Saldate after arriving with Laura Ling and former President Bill Clinton in Burbank, California August 5, 2009. Ling, 32, and Lee, 36, American journalists freed by North Korea from months of detention, returned to U.S. soil early on Wednesday accompanied by Clinton, who secured their release in a meeting with the hermit state's leader Kim Jong-il. REUTERS/Danny Moloshok (UNITED STATES POLITICS MEDIA IMAGES OF THE DAY)






 REUTERS/Danny Moloshok (UNITED STATES POLITICS MEDIA)






In this image made from AP Television News, former Vice President Al Gore , center, watches as journalists Laura Ling, left and Euna Lee speak after arriving at the Bob Hope Airport in Burbank, Calif. early Wednesday, Aug. 5, 2009. Former President Bill Clinton says he's 'very happy' that the pair of American journalists have been freed from imprisonment in North Korea. (AP Photo/AP Television News)


----------



## dustinm

What did those women expect when they snuck into NORTH KOREA?

My god, I'm surprised they weren't shot on sight.


----------



## OldSolduer

Neo Cortex said:
			
		

> What did those women expect when they snuck into NORTH KOREA?
> 
> My god, I'm surprised they weren't shot on sight.



Good point. Maybe people will listen when we tell them that the Dragon and Bear aren't cute and cuddly as our left wingers make them out to be.


----------



## dustinm

OldSoldier said:
			
		

> Good point. Maybe people will listen when we tell them that the Dragon and Bear aren't cute and cuddly as our left wingers make them out to be.



Actually, while you're right, I think I may have been a bit harsh with my comments. While sneaking into the DPRK is indeed a stupid idea, conflicting reports abound about where they were when captured. 

Their South Korean guide says they were on the Chinese side (and North Korean Border Guards had to cross over to Chinese territory to arrest them,) while the North Koreans claim they were on the North Korean side.


----------



## zipperhead_cop

Were this not a fairly straight forward thread, there would be an obvious Clinton joke to go with this picture.... ;D


----------



## dustinm

Huffington Post, via the Associated Press: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/08/07/laura-lings-sister-report_0_n_253750.html



> LOS ANGELES -- *Laura Ling's sister says the two American journalists briefly touched North Korean soil* before they were captured and detained for months in that communist country.
> 
> "*She said that it was maybe 30 seconds* and then everything got chaotic. It's a very powerful story, and she does want to share it," Lisa Ling told CNN Thursday.
> 
> <snip>
> 
> Laura Ling told her family she was treated humanely, but meals were meager and her phone calls were monitored, Lisa Ling said.
> 
> "She had two guards in her room at all times, morning and night. And even though they couldn't speak to her, somehow they developed a strange sort of kinship, Lisa Ling said. "She had some really lovely things to say about the people who were watching over her."
> 
> The reporter passed her time in captivity reading, walking circles around her cell for exercise and planning when she would wash her hair, because water service was intermittent, Lisa Ling said.
> 
> At Laura Ling's house on a quiet residential street in the San Fernando Valley, a man who identified himself as her brother-in-law came to the door and said politely that she wasn't ready to speak about her ordeal yet.
> 
> Lisa Ling said her sister plans to write an editorial explaining what happened and how she was captured.


----------



## CougarKing

North Korean defector warns of North Korean chemical threat-July 24, 2009 video report


----------



## CougarKing

A related update:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090829/ap_on_re_us/un_un_ship_seized



> *UAE reports ship seizure with NKorea arms for Iran*
> By JOHN HEILPRIN, Associated Press Writer John Heilprin, Associated Press Writer
> 1 hr 59 mins ago
> 
> UNITED NATIONS – *The United Arab Emirates has seized a cargo ship bound for Iran with a cache of banned rocket-propelled grenades and other arms from North Korea, the first such seizure since sanctions against North Korea were ramped up, diplomats and officials told The Associated Press on Friday.*
> 
> The seizure earlier this month was carried out in accordance with tough new U.N. Security Council sanctions meant to derail North Korea's nuclear weapons program, but which also ban the North's sale of any conventional arms.
> 
> *Diplomats identified the vessel as a Bahamas-flagged cargo vessel, the ANL Australia.* The diplomats and officials spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity.
> 
> "We can confirm that the UAE detained a North Korean vessel containing illicit cargo," a Western diplomat told the AP.
> 
> Turkey's deputy U.N. ambassador, Fazli Corman, who chairs the Security Council's sanctions panel, also confirmed the incident without providing details and said council members are examining the seriousness of it.
> 
> *The UAE, a hub for Iranian goods, seized the ship earlier in August. The ship is registered in the Bahamas, a common country of registry for vessels, but it wasn't immediately clear who owns it nor where the owner is based.
> 
> The Security Council's latest resolution came in the wake of North Korea's second nuclear test in May and firing of six short-range rockets.
> 
> The ship's seizure and reported violation of a U.N. arms embargo was reported by the UAE in a confidential letter two weeks ago to the council's sanctions committee for North Korea, which is comprised of diplomats from all 15 nations on the Security Council, according to diplomats and officials.*
> 
> The Financial Times first reported the weapons' seizure Friday.
> 
> The Security Council imposed tough new sanctions on North Korea on June 12, strengthening an arms embargo and authorizing ship searches on the high seas to try to rein in its nuclear program after Pyongyang's second nuclear test on May 25, violating a council resolution adopted after its first nuclear blast in 2006.
> 
> *The council also has ordered an asset freeze and travel ban on companies and individuals involved in the country's nuclear and weapons programs — and put five North Korean officials, four companies and a state agency on the sanctions list. Three other companies were put on the list after Pyongyang launched a rocket on April 5, a move that many saw as a cover for testing long-range missile technology.
> 
> The new sanctions resolution also calls on all nations to prevent financial institutions or individuals from providing financing for any activities related to North Korean programs to build nuclear, biological and chemical weapons and ballistic missiles.
> 
> Three sets of U.N. sanctions apply to Iran, seeking to halt its uranium enrichment. Iran denies accusations by the U.S. and Western allies that its nuclear program is for more than peaceful purposes.
> 
> The ship seizure comes at a delicate time, just as the North has been adopting a more conciliatory stance toward South Korea and the U.S., following months of defiant provocations.*
> 
> Earlier this month, the North freed two American journalists and a South Korean worker after more than four months of detention and pledged to restart some joint projects.
> 
> The North also sent a delegation to Seoul to mourn the death of former South Korean President Kim Dae-jung.


----------



## PMedMoe

*Article Link*

By Jack Kim, Reuters September 26, 2009

SEOUL — Ninety-seven South Koreans crossed a heavily armed border on Saturday to meet family members in the communist North in fleeting reunions arranged by the rivals split by war and ideology more than half a century ago.

The two Koreas began reunions in 2000 for the hundreds of thousands of divided families, but the events have been on hold for about two years due to political tension, denying many Koreans their dying wish to see relatives they left behind.

Most of the hundreds of thousands of South Koreans looking for lost family members in the North are 70 or older, meaning time is running out.

The reunion at the North Korean resort of Mount Kumgang was an outpouring of sorrow, joy and relief as family members lost for more than half a century were reunited.

"Don't you have anything to say to me?" said Chung Dae-chun, who at 95 is the oldest person to be taking part in the three-day event, as he was reunited with his son, who is hearing impaired and appeared older than his trim and alert father.

Destitute North Korea, stung by U.N. sanctions triggered by nuclear and missile tests, has in recent months reached out to the South, once a major aid donor, proposing renewed business ties and resuming the emotionally charged reunions.

The 97 South Koreans are meeting 240 North Korean sons and daughters, and brothers and sisters in Mount Kumgang just miles from the border on the peninsula's east coast.

Ninety-nine North Koreans who sought relatives in the South will follow in another three days of reunions meeting 449 who will travel from the South.

More on link


----------



## PMedMoe

Further to my post above:

*NKorean meets her 100-year-old mother*
*Article link*

SEOUL, South Korea - A North Korean woman wept as she embraced her 100-year-old South Korean mother for the first time since 1951 on Tuesday, during a fresh round of reunions of divided families - the latest sign of warming ties between the Koreas. 

Amid the tears of joy, however, there was sadness: A 75-year-old South Korean who had been trying for nearly a decade to reunite with his family in North Korea threw himself in front of a train near Seoul because he was not among the hundreds selected for the reunions. 

The six days of highly emotional reunions - the first in nearly two years - began Saturday at North Korea's Diamond Mountain. The first group of more than 120 South Koreans returned to Seoul on Monday after three days, and a second group of about 430 South Koreans went to the North on Tuesday. 

South Korea's YTN television showed footage of 75-year-old Ri Hae Kyong, a North Korean, hugging her centenarian South Korean mother, Kim Yu-jung. The daughter, just 16 when she disappeared during the 1950-53 Korean War, used a handkerchief to wipe away her mother's tears. 

"It's been 60 years, and I've been missing you even in my dreams," Ri told her mother and two sisters, the Yonhap news agency reported. "You are now 100 years old, and I thought I would never see you again." 

North Korea agreed last month to allow the meetings and other reconciliation ties with South Korea as part of efforts to reach out to its wartime rival following more than a year of tensions, largely over the North's nuclear program. About 900 Koreans will be reunited during the two sessions, according to the organizer, South Korea's Red Cross. 

More on link


----------



## Soldier1stTradesman2nd

Relations would really warm up if they held these reunions on the south side of the DMZ. I fathom the return train would be a few passengers short.


----------



## CougarKing

For now he's playing nice, possibly due to Beijing's prodding. But the cycle from talks to missile launches back to talks will start again eventually.  :



> Agence France-Presse - 10/5/2009 9:53 PM GMT
> *NKorea's Kim willing to return to nuclear talks: state media*
> North Korea is willing to return to six-party nuclear disarmament talks if separate talks planned with the United States make progress, the communist state's official media said.
> 
> It said leader Kim Jong-Il gave the commitment at a meeting late Monday in Pyongyang with visiting Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao.
> 
> "The hostile relations between the DPRK (North Korea) and the United States should be converted into peaceful ties through the bilateral talks without fail," the Korean Central News Agency quoted Kim as saying.
> 
> "We expressed our readiness to hold multilateral talks, depending on the outcome of the DPRK-US talks. The six-party talks are also included in the multilateral talks."
> 
> Kim said the North's efforts to denuclearise the Korean peninsula remain unchanged.
> 
> China's official Xinhua news agency carried a similar report, saying the two leaders reached "vital consensus" on the issue.
> 
> The North quit the six-nation forum in April after the United Nations condemned its long-range rocket launch. It vowed to restart its programme to make atomic bombs.
> 
> In May the North staged its second nuclear test, incurring tougher UN sanctions supported even by its close ally China. The United States has been leading a drive to enforce the measures.
> 
> The North has been pressing for bilateral talks with the United States, which says such talks are possible only if the goal is to restart the six-party forum.
> 
> Washington has been awaiting the outcome of Wen's visit before deciding whether to accept a reported invitation to send Stephen Bosworth, special representative for North Korea policy, to Pyongyang.
> 
> Wen's high-profile three-day visit ending later Tuesday was officially described as a goodwill trip to attend celebrations marking the 60th anniversary of Korea diplomatic relations.
> 
> But efforts to bring the North back to the six-nation talks were high on the agenda.
> 
> The forum which was formed in 2003 also groups South Korea, the United States, Russia and Japan. It reached a deal in 2007 under which the North shut down its plutonium-producing plant at Yongbyon.
> 
> In Wen's talks Sunday with Premier Kim Yong-Il and other senior officials, the North had expressed willingness to achieve denuclearisation through "bilateral and multilateral dialogues."
> 
> The North, however, blamed the United States for the nuclear standoff and linked denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula to the pace of global atomic disarmament efforts.
> 
> Pyongyang has lately been stressing its claim that it needs atomic weapons as a shield against US hostility. It also seeks formal recognition as a nuclear-armed state, something Washington and Seoul have adamantly rejected.
> 
> China is isolated North Korea's biggest trade partner and energy supplier.
> 
> In a sign of the importance which Pyongyang places on the relationship, Kim Jong-Il personally hosted an elaborate red-carpet airport welcome for Wen on Sunday and greeted him with a hug.
> 
> On Monday the two sides had hailed their friendship without mentioning nuclear disputes.
> 
> "History has proven that developing China-North Korea relations is in line with the fundamental interests and common aspirations of the two peoples and conducive to safeguarding regional peace and stability," said a Chinese foreign ministry statement, quoting Chinese President Hu Jintao and Wen.
> 
> "We are willing to work together with North Korea to... constantly push forward friendly and cooperative relations."
> 
> In the same statement Kim was quoted as calling the bilateral relationship "a common treasure."
> 
> Wen Monday toured a cemetery for Chinese soldiers who died fighting for the North in the 1950-1953 war. Among those buried there is Mao Anying, son of the late Chinese leader Mao Zedong.


----------



## Soldier1stTradesman2nd

Maybe NK is running out of food, The Dear Leader playing brinkmanship not only with the region but his own people. Push till he can't push no mo'


----------



## Edward Campbell

The Chinese will feed the North Koreans. Simple humanity will not allow the Chinese to stand idly by while famine strikes. But the Chinese will not extract any *public* quid pro quo; there is nothing *for* China in helping America to solve *its* North Korean problem.

But one characteristic of Chinese policy is that the biggest, most momentous events are deadly dull, barely commented upon and accomplished with minimum fanfare. The Chinese are not like Americans. One needs to look behind the _hoopla_ to see what is really happening.


----------



## CougarKing

Yikes!  

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/afp/091008/world/china_nkorea_military_accident



> TOKYO (AFP) - *China has detected deadly nerve gas at its border with North Korea and suspects an accidental release inside the secretive state, a Japanese news report said Friday.
> 
> The Chinese military is strengthening its surveillance activities after detecting the highly virulent sarin gas in November last year and in February in Liaoning province, the Asahi Shimbun newspaper reported, citing anonymous sources from the Chinese military.*
> 
> 
> Sarin gas, which was developed in Germany before World War I, was used in the deadly 1995 nerve gas attack on the Tokyo subway by a doomsday cult.
> 
> 
> The Chinese special operations forces found 0.015-0.03 microgrammes of the gas per cubic metre when they were conducting regular surveys while there were winds from the direction of North Korea, the report said.
> 
> 
> China suspects that there were some experiments or accidents in its neighbouring country, it said.


----------



## CougarKing

Again? This is getting old and tiresome.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/091012/world/international_us_korea_north_missile



> North Korea fires missiles and declares "no sail" zone
> 
> 
> 2 hours, 52 minutes ago
> 
> 
> SEOUL (Reuters) -* North Korea has fired five short-range missiles off its east coast and declared a "no sail" zone in the area from October 10-20, South Korea's Yonhap news agency quoted a government source as saying on Monday.*
> South Korean government officials were not immediately available for comment.
> 
> 
> The latest launches, the first in about three months, come as Pyongyang has said it is ready to return to international talks on its nuclear weapons programme, though it has insisted it holds talks first with the United States.
> 
> 
> It was not clear whether these were routine military exercises.
> 
> 
> But they coincided with local media reports that the United States is planning to send its aircraft carrier USS George Washington to the South Korean port of Busan on Tuesday.
> 
> 
> The reclusive North has hundreds of short-range range missiles, with the ability to strike the South Korean capital Seoul and its sprawling urban surroundings which are home to around 25 million people.
> 
> 
> A nuclear test in May and a spate of missile tests around the same time triggered a tightening of sanctions against the North, whose desperate economic straits some analysts have said are partly behind its recent attempts to get on better terms with the outside world.
> 
> 
> A U.N. resolution bans North Korea from launching ballistic missiles, but there are no international agreements that bar it from test-launching short-range missiles.
> 
> 
> (Reporting by Jack Kim and Yoo Choonsik, writing by Jonathan Thatcher; Editing by Jeremy Laurence)


----------



## vonGarvin

Maybe the 2009 Nobel Peace Prize Laureate can do something about this?

:rofl:

(I almost said that with a straight face) ;D


----------



## CougarKing

We'll see if anything worthwhile comes out of this summit.



> *South Korea: Summit should help resolve nuclear dispute*
> (philstar.com) Updated October 25, 2009 06:00 AM
> 
> 
> SEOUL (AP) – A summit between the two Koreas should help resolve the dispute over North Korea's nuclear programs, a South Korea official said yesterday, as a negotiator for the North arrived in the US in likely pursuit of bilateral talks with Washington.
> 
> North Korea's No. 2 nuclear negotiator, Ri Gun, met on yesterday in New York with the chief US nuclear negotiator Sung Kim, a State Department spokesman said.
> 
> "Ambassador Ri Gun has traveled to the US on the invitation of US private organizations," State Department spokesman Noel Clay said in a statement. "During his visit, Ambassador Sung Kim took the opportunity to meet with him in New York on October 24 to convey our position on denuclearization and the six-party talks."
> 
> The US says it is willing to have direct talks with the North if it leads to resumption of six-party talks aimed at halting North Korea's nuclear weapons programs that also include South Korea, China, Russia and Japan.
> 
> North Korea and the United States do not have diplomatic relations. Ri was given permission to visit the US for unofficial meetings that include the Northeast Asia Cooperation Dialogue, a forum sponsored by the University of California-San Diego.
> 
> Clay said that Kim and principal deputy assistant secretary of defense, Derek J. Mitchell, would participate in the San Diego forum which begins on Sunday. The sessions will also include government officials and scholars from China, Russia, Japan and South Korea.
> 
> Clay said the US level of participation in the forum "is the same as previous years."
> 
> The North's reported push for a summit with the South and talks with Washington is part of a series of conciliatory moves by the regime in recent months after escalating tensions with nuclear and missile tests.
> 
> Analysts have said the moves show North Korea feels the pain of UN sanctions following its May nuclear test.
> 
> South Korea's largest television network KBS reported Thursday night that a senior South Korean official met with the North's spy chief, Kim Yang Gon, in Singapore last week and talked about a possible meeting between North Korean leader Kim Jong Il and South Korean President Lee Myung-bak.
> 
> North Korea first asked for the meeting, but the talks ended without agreement as the South demanded that the reclusive Kim visit the South, and the North balked at the demand citing security concerns, the report said. It cited an unidentified South Korean official.
> 
> Officials, including the South's Unification Minister Hyun In-taek, declined to confirm the reports. But Hyun said Friday that progress in international efforts to rid North Korea of its nuclear weapons programs is key to a summit with the North.
> 
> "Our government's position remains unchanged that we would not hold a meeting for meeting's sake," Lee Dong-kwan, senior presidential secretary for public relations, said yesterday in comments posted on South Korea's presidential Web site.
> 
> He said a summit "should be helpful to progress in the resolution of North Korea's nuclear issue," noting there won't be any behind-the-scenes negotiations or contract with North Korea over a summit.
> 
> North Korea's Kim has held summits with the South twice: the first in 2000 with the South's then-President Kim Dae-jung and the other in 2007 with then-President Roh Moo-hyun.
> 
> Relations between the two Koreas frayed badly after the more conservative Lee took office early last year. But Lee has said he is willing to meet with Kim Jong Il at any time, but that any such summit should tackle the North Korean nuclear issue.
> 
> North Korea pulled out of the six-party disarmament talks in April, but Kim Jong Il said earlier this month that the North could rejoin them depending on progress in its possible one-on-one negotiations with the US


----------



## Edward Campbell

Apropos of nothing very much, except North Korea's incredible military power:






North Korean Women practice their goose step.


I don't know how we plan to beat that!


Maybe we'll have to count on the Chinese who can counter step with this:






You may recall these soldiers from the recent 60th Anniversary parade.


----------



## vonGarvin

As those two commie states focus on "pretty women marching", as an officer in The RCR, it almost pains me to say that marching will not win wars. 

I say that we adopt the method embodied in this photo: 




Pretty is nice, but we mix it with lethal effect 

;D


----------



## vonGarvin

Let us not forget the USMC:


----------



## Edward Campbell

Yes, but <drifting further off this serious topic> the female goose stepping is neat ...







... especially in 'scarlets' ...







... but, anyway, she looks tough enough:


----------



## a_majoor

(Drifts even farther away)

The ladies have some way to go to beat _this_:


----------



## Edward Campbell

<dragging this important topic to new lows>

That's fine, but given the interminably boring nature of UN duty, with whom would you rather spend endless nights in some remote OP: those two or these young Chinese _friends_?


----------



## zipperhead_cop

I guess China doesn't teach their soldiers "Finger off the trigger..."


----------



## CougarKing

Another naval clash.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/afp/091110/world/skorea_nkorea_military_clash



> SEOUL (AFP) - *North and South Korea were involved in a naval clash Tuesday off their west coast, a military official told AFP.
> 
> It was not known where the clash took place*, but the disputed sea border in the Yellow Sea was the scene of deadly naval clashes in 1999 and 2002.
> 
> 
> *News agency Yonhap has stated that the North Korean boat involved in the clash has been badly damaged.*
> 
> 
> The North's navy last month accused South Korea of sending warships across the border to stir tensions, and said the "reckless military provocations" could trigger armed clashes.


----------



## CougarKing

Economic chaos in North Korea as it sharply revalues its currency:

http//www.news.com.au/business/breaking-news/north-korea-sharply-revalues-currency/story-e6frfkur-1225805753994 



> North Korea sharply revalues currency
> From correspondents in Seoul From: AFP December 01, 2009 1:22PM
> NORTH Korea has sharply revalued its currency for the first time in 17 years in an apparent attempt to curb inflation and clamp down on black-market trading, reports said today.
> 
> The communist state's government implemented the change yesterday morning, causing panic and confusion in the markets, Yonhap news agency and other South Korean media reported.
> Yonhap, reporting from the north-eastern Chinese city of Shenyang, said the exchange rate for the new currency was 100 to 1, with old-denomination 1000 won notes being replaced by new 10 won notes.
> 
> "Many citizens in Pyongyang were taken aback and in confusion," it quoted a North Korean source engaged in trade with China as saying.
> 
> "Those who were worried about their hidden assets rushed to the black market to exchange them for (Chinese) yuan or US dollars. The yuan and the dollar jumped."
> 
> South Korea's Chosun Ilbo newspaper and the Daily NK, a Seoul-based internet newspaper, carried similar reports.
> 
> Yonhap said the revaluation was the first since 1992.
> 
> It said the main aim appeared to be curbing inflation because the value of the North Korean won had slumped since limited economic reforms were introduced in 2002.
> 
> The reforms, to make wages and prices more realistic and introduce limited market freedoms, were largely rolled back in 2005.
> 
> Yonhap said the North may also have wanted to draw out funds from the underground economy, including money from citizens working abroad.
> 
> The country is mounting a national campaign to rebuild its crumbling economy by 2012, the 100th anniversary of the birth of its founder Kim Il-Sung.
> 
> Daily NK, in a story datelined from Shenyang, said Monday's move caused alarm in markets.
> 
> "When the news spread in the jangmadang (markets), people panicked," it quoted a source in the north-eastern province of North Hamkyung as saying.
> 
> A source in the western city of Sinuiju, on the border with China, told the paper: "Traders gathered around currency dealers. Chaos ensued when currency dealers tried to avoid them."
> 
> Seoul's unification ministry could not immediately confirm the reports.
> 
> Chosun Ilbo said the revaluation was to curb severe inflation and tighten control on society before an eventual power transfer from leader Kim Jong-Il to his son Jong-Un.
> 
> "Prices have gone up too high since the economic reform measures taken on July 1, 2002," a source told Chosun.
> 
> "The North Korean currency has been devalued too much, apparently causing the currency change."
> 
> North Korea Economy Watch said the won was officially worth around 2.20 to a US dollar before the reforms of 2002. After that the official exchange rate jumped nearly 70 times to 153.50 to one US dollar.
> 
> However, the black market rate is around 3000 to one US dollar, the blog reported earlier this year.


----------



## a_majoor

The DPRK need _more_ socialism:

http://drezner.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2009/12/09/yeah_north_koreas_problem_is_that_its_not_socialist_enough



> *Yeah, North Korea's problem is that it's not socialist enough*
> Wed, 12/09/2009 - 9:56am
> 
> As my boss U.S. envoy Stephen Bosworth arrives in Pyongyang, I think it's worth noting that the North Korean government has not been endearing itself to its citizenry.  Hmmm... let me rephrase that -- the DPRK government has been acting with even more disregard fo its citizens than usual.
> 
> The nub of the problem has been a currency revaluation/reform in which North Korean citizens will be forced to trade in their old notes for new ones -- and each citizen is limited in the amount they can exchange.  This move was designed to do two things:  lopping off a few zeroes of the North Korean won, and flushing out private traders along the Chinese border who are sitting on currency notes that will soon be worthless.
> 
> It appears, according to AFP, that the DPRK regime has finally come up with a move that actually roils their population:
> 
> Amid reports that some frustrated residents have been torching old bills, South Korean aid group Good Friends said authorities have threatened severe punishment for such an action.
> 
> Many residents would burn worthless old bills rather than surrender them to authorities, in order to avoid arousing suspicions about how they made the money, Good Friends said.
> 
> The banknotes carry portraits of founding president Kim Il-Sung and his successor and son Kim Jong-Il. Defacing their images is treated as a felony.
> 
> With nascent private markets for food collapsing because of the currency reform, citizens are finding it difficult to obtain basic staples. The U.N.'s Food and Agriculture Organization is already projecting another grain shortage for the country.
> 
> Over at the U.S. Institute for Peace, John S. Park does a nice job of explaining the political economy effects of this currency move:
> 
> As North Korean people in key market-active regions benefited from growing commercial interactions, low- to high-level DPRK officials figured out ways to get a cut of the money made. These officials used most of these bribes (viewed by traders as a "cost of doing business") to line their own pockets, but also used a portion of these for their respective organization's operating budget. With less to skim from the markets due to this revaluation, these officials will have funding gaps to fill. Given that these officials also enjoyed a higher standard of living, the discontent of the North Korean people will be aligned with these "skimming" officials. New groups of losers from this revaluation may be more advanced and better organized than protesters during previous periods of government-initiated economic and currency reforms....
> 
> If the DPRK government had improved and restored the inconsistent Public Distribution System and other public services on a national basis (a massive undertaking), a revaluation may have triggered greater state control by minimizing the benefits from the non-formal market system and making the North Korean people dependent on the state again. It does not appear that the DPRK government has improved these national systems. In an apparent effort to restore discipline through this revaluation, the DPRK government may have initiated a period of economic, social, and political destabilization by undermining a widely used coping mechanism for the people, as well as a growing number of officials.
> 
> [So a buckling DPRK regime is a good thing, right?--ed.]  From a nonproliferation perspective, not so much, no.
> 
> Any domestic instability in North Korea is bad for Bosworth, the Six-Party Talks, and nonproliferation efforts in general.   The June uprisings in Iran have led the Iranian regime to adopt a more hardline position on the nuclear issue, both to bolster the conservative base and engage in "rally round the flag" efforts.  I see no reason why this logic would not apply to North Korea as well -- indeed, domestic instability is the likely explanation for Pyongyang's bellicose behavior earlier this year.
> 
> Developing.... in a very disturbing way.


----------



## a_majoor

The real open question is who the North Koreans believe will come to help them? Considering the Obama administration abandoned its Eastern European allies, voted "Present" for the Iranian democracy protestors and seems eager to accomodate authoratarian regimes, no helpwill be coming from there...

Wounded or dying regimes like the DPRK are especially irrational and dangerous as they destabilize; this might actually be the story to watch.

http://www.forbes.com/2009/12/09/north-korea-obama-climate-opinions-columnists-claudia-rosett_print.html



> *Give North Koreans A Chance*
> Claudia Rosett, 12.10.09, 12:10 AM ET
> 
> While climate delegates are quarreling in Copenhagen, and President Barack Obama is collecting his Nobel Peace Prize in Oslo, an important story is unfolding in relative obscurity, in North Korea. Furious over a confiscatory currency "reform," citizens of the world's most repressive state have begun publicly criticizing their government.
> 
> It is hard to overstate just how bold a move that is. North Korea's military "is on alert for a possible civil uprising," according to a major South Korean newspaper, the Chosun Ilbo. Reports have been filtering out of North Korea that the country's markets have become arenas of protest, with traders--many of them women in their 40s and 50s--publicly cursing the North Korean authorities.
> 
> Most of these reports attribute the information to anonymous sources. That's no surprise, given that North Koreans can be condemned to starve and freeze to death in labor camps for such acts as singing a South Korean song or failing to pay fawning homage to the ubiquitous portraits of their tyrant, Kim Jong Il.
> 
> That is exactly why these signs of unrest are so important. Dissent in North Korea carries individual risks even worse than the horrors that street protesters have been braving in Iran. But the stories are credible, and they suggest that North Korea's regime is approaching a fragile moment. This comes on top of Kim's questionable health, following what is believed to have been a stroke in 2008.
> 
> President Barack Obama, and other leaders of the democratic world, have a choice. They can dismiss the rising murmurs of North Korea's stricken people, and stick with the sorry tradition of bailing out and propping up the North Korean regime via yet another round of nuclear talks and payoffs. Or they can leave Kim to struggle with this nightmare of his own making, and maybe even notch up the financial pressure to nudge North Korea's totalitarian regime toward its rightful place in history's unmarked graveyard of discarded lies.
> 
> The immediate cause of the anger sweeping North Korea is a currency "reform" that amounts to the government stealing from its own deprived population. With its priorities on bankrolling the military and the production of missiles and nuclear weapons, while its people endure repression, cold and hunger, North Korea's government has produced runaway inflation. On Dec. 1, North Korean authorities imposed a surprise plan to revalue the country's currency, the won. The plan has entailed issuing new banknotes, lopping off two zeroes, so 1,000 won becomes 10. People were given just one week to swap old money for new, after which the old notes would become worthless. A limit was placed on the amount that could be officially exchanged, effectively confiscating all individual savings worth more than about $40 at informal exchange rates.
> 
> This caused so much outrage that the government then eased up slightly, raising the limits on how much old currency people could trade for new. But even with the adjustment, many North Koreans have been left with outright state theft of their money.
> 
> North Korea's government has done this before, most recently in the early 1990s, without major ructions. But that was back in the days when money was far less important, because there were no markets.
> 
> This time is different. Back in the early-1990s, when the Soviet collapse put an end to the Russian dole, North Korea's state-run distribution system largely collapsed. The result was a famine in which an estimated 1 million or more North Koreans died. Struggling to survive, North Koreans began defying the state by doing business with each other--setting up small markets. Since then, at least some market activity has been incorporated into the system. That is what many North Koreans depend on simply to eat. That is how some have been able to salt away a little cash, and a glimmer of hope for some control over their own lives.
> 
> That is what has just come under blitz attack by the North Korean regime. And though North Korea's state secrecy allows no way to know just how many people have been hit by this state thievery, the number is clearly large. "It is serious," says a North Korean defector, Kim Kwang-Jin, an expert in North Korean finance, currently a visiting fellow at the Washington-based U.S. Committee for Human Rights in North Korea.
> 
> History suggests that while tyrannized people may endure astounding hardships before rising up, state plunder of their money is a particularly explosive gambit. In late-1987, Burma's repressive junta wiped out high denomination banknotes for Burma's currency, the kyat. That wholesale state larceny lit the fuse for the massive Burmese street protests of 1988.
> 
> China's government tried a variation on this sort of sweeping confiscation in the late 1980s, paying workers with state bonds that the state did not plan to honor anytime soon. That helped fuel the huge protest movement, which burst into public view in mid-1989 as the Tiananmen Square uprising.
> 
> Indonesia beggared millions of its emerging middle class with a currency devaluation in 1997, aggravated by a bungled bank cleanup, all of which turned into a route of the rupiah. In early-1998, stripped of their purchasing power, Indonesians rioted. That led to the resignation within months of longtime dictator Suharto.
> 
> None of these stories are pleasant. In China and Burma, the authorities regained control by gunning down protestors in the streets. Only in Indonesia, where Suharto ran a relatively benign autocracy compared with such places as China, Burma and especially North Korea, did the dictator go.
> 
> But if there is any likelihood of North Koreans rising up against their government, they deserve the chance to at least make a run for it. They live under the worst government on the planet--a racketeering, weapons-vending, nuclear extortionist regime that is a menace to the world and a horror to its own captive population. Kim keeps control by running a Stalinist gulag that has swallowed hundreds of thousands of North Koreans. Citizens caught trying to flee the country have been punished with everything from time in often-lethal labor camps, to execution--in some cases carried out in public, to deter others.
> 
> Officially, as consolation for the shock of having their money suddenly snatched away by the state, North Korea's people can turn to the usual programming of breathless affirmations of Kim Jong Il's glory. That runs to such stuff as this week's report by the state-run Korean Central News Agency that the People's Security Ministry has been giving art performances showing "the firm faith and will of the people's security men to share intention and destiny with Supreme Commander Kim Jong Il." The starring acts include a male guitar quintet performing such pieces as "Let's Defend Socialism."
> 
> Meanwhile, Obama's envoy, Stephen Bosworth, has just paid a visit to Pyongyang, trying to wheedle Kim Jong Il's regime back to the nuclear bargaining table. Both presidents Bill Clinton and George Bush trod this same slippery path, providing Kim with nuclear payoffs over the years that have amounted to massive handouts of food, fuel, hard cash and diplomatic concessions. North Korea, with an unbroken record of lying and cheating on such deals, has carried on with its weapons programs, plus such stunts as counterfeiting U.S. currency, and sending sanctions-busting arms shipments to Iran. This spring, Kim welcomed Obama's arrival in the White House by conducting North Korea's second nuclear test.
> 
> Real progress in coping with North Korea would begin with the refusal to do anything more to prop up Kim Jong Il's regime. That would mean an end to the haggling, concessions and handouts. In sheer humanitarian terms, anything leading to the end of Kim's regime would be an achievement on a par with liberating the concentration camps of Nazi Germany--as the world may one day understand, when the prison camps of North Korea are finally opened to public view and shut down forever. In terms of global security, it would send a healthy message to Iran's mullahs and other tyrannical nuclear wannabes, if North Korea were to provide a graphic demonstration that building the bomb is not, after all, the fast track to lifelong rule and out-sized leverage in world politics.
> 
> For North Koreans to curse their government in public requires not only anger, but astounding courage. Give these people a chance.
> 
> Claudia Rosett, a journalist-in-residence with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, writes a weekly column on foreign affairs for Forbes.


----------



## sm1lodon

So, the main wealth-generating activity in North Korea is saber-rattling? Kim Po Ssible throws his nuclear tantrums so we hand him money and goods? Sounds remotely akin to paying a ransom. 

Here's to the day when North Koreans finally throw off their chains.

Hope it's soon, for their sakes.


----------



## a_majoor

More on Korean protests:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/12/26/AR2009122600761_pf.html



> *In N. Korea, a strong movement recoils at Kim Jong Il's attempt to limit wealth
> *
> By Blaine Harden
> Washington Post Foreign Service
> Sunday, December 27, 2009; A16
> 
> SEOUL -- North Korean leader Kim Jong Il moved early this month to wipe out much of the wealth earned in the past decade in his country's private markets. As part of a surprise currency revaluation, the government sharply restricted the amount of old bills that could be traded for new and made it illegal for citizens to have more than $40 worth of local currency.
> 
> It was an unexplained decision -- the kind of command that for more than six decades has been obeyed without question in North Korea. But this time, in a highly unusual challenge to Kim's near-absolute authority, the markets and the people who depend on them pushed back.
> 
> Grass-roots anger and a reported riot in an eastern coastal city pressured the government to amend its confiscatory policy. Exchange limits have been eased, allowing individuals to possess more cash.
> 
> The currency episode reveals new constraints on Kim's power and may signal a fundamental change in the operation of what is often called the world's most repressive state. The change is driven by private markets that now feed and employ half the country's 23.5 million people, and appear to have grown too big and too important to be crushed, even by a leader who loathes them.
> 
> The currency episode seems far from over, and there have been indications that Kim still has the stomach for using deadly force.
> 
> There have been public executions and reinforcements have been dispatched to the Chinese border to stop possible mass defections, according to reports in Seoul-based newspapers and aid groups with informants in the North.
> 
> Still, analysts say there has also been evidence of unexpected shifts in the limits of Kim's authority.
> 
> "The private markets have created a new power elite," said Koh Yu-whan, a professor of North Korean studies at Dongguk University in Seoul. "They pay bribes to bureaucrats in Kim's government, and they are a threat that is not going away."
> The third generation
> 
> The threat comes at a time of transition in North Korea. Kim Jong Il, 67, suffered a stroke last year. While he appears to have recovered, at least enough to maintain control, he has begun a murky process of handing power over to a third generation, in the person of his youngest son, Kim Jong Eun, 26.
> 
> The Kim family dynasty built and presides over a totalitarian state that has lasted more than six decades, far longer than its mentors, Stalin's Soviet Union and Mao's China. It is the only such state to have survived the death of the leader around whom a cult of personality had been built. Kim Jong Il assumed power in 1994, after the death of his father, Kim Il Sung, the state's founding dictator.
> 
> It was an exceedingly bumpy transition: Famine killed a million people, the state-run economy imploded and private markets began an inexorable spread across the country. Still, it was a transition that had been in the works for more than a decade and was elaborately rolled out to the North Korean people, unlike the current succession.
> 
> "It would seem to an outsider that much less care has been taken to ensure a smooth dynastic transition this time around," said Nicholas Eberstadt, author of several books on North Korea.
> 
> Analysts in South Korea and the United States say there is little evidence that Kim Jong Eun has been groomed for power -- or that he is equipped to deal with the regime-rotting challenge presented by the growth of private markets and the rise of a bribe-paying entrepreneurial class.
> 
> In the view of several outside experts, this month's currency revaluation was a preemptive strike against the markets by Kim Jong Il, an aging leader who is worried about succession and trying to buy time.
> 
> "This was one of the strongest measures he could take," said Cho Young-key, a professor of North Korea studies at Korea University in Seoul. "Kim is thinking that if he can't control the markets now, in the future it will get even harder, and then he will be handing power to the son."
> 
> Stripping wealth from merchants is consistent with Kim Jong Il's long-held abhorrence of capitalist reform. His government regards it as "honey-coated poison" that can lead to regime change and catastrophe, according to the Rodong Sinmun, the party newspaper in Pyongyang.
> 
> "It is important to decisively frustrate capitalist and non-socialist elements in their bud," said the newspaper.
> Closing the marketplace
> 
> Kim's government in the past two years has closed some large markets, shifted Chinese-made goods to state-run shops and ordered that only middle-aged and older women can sell goods in open-air markets, to try to limit the number of North Koreans who abandon government jobs for the private sector.
> 
> But capitalism seems to have already taken root. U.N. officials estimate that half the calories consumed in North Korea come from food bought in private markets, and that nearly 80 percent of household income derives from buying and selling in the markets, according to a study last year in the Seoul Journal of Economics.
> 
> Private markets are flooding the country with electronics from China and elsewhere.
> 
> Cheap radios, televisions, MP3 devices, DVD players, video cameras and cellphones are seeping into a semi-feudal society, where a trusted elite lives in the capital Pyongyang. Surrounding the elite is a suspect peasantry that is poor, stunted by hunger and spied upon by layers of state security.
> 
> In the past year, the elites in Pyongyang have been granted authorized access to mobile phones -- the number is soon expected to reach 120,000. In the border regions with China, unauthorized mobile phone use has also increased among the trading classes. And unlike most of the mobile phones in Pyongyang, the illegal phones are set up to make international calls.
> 
> Chinese telecom companies have built relay towers near the border, providing strong mobile signals in many nearby North Korean towns, according to the Chosun Ilbo, a Seoul-based daily.
> 
> Those phones have become a new source of real-time reporting to the outside world on events inside North Korea, as networks of informants call in news to Web sites such as the Seoul-based Daily NK and the Buddhist aid group Good Friends.
> 
> Good Friends reported last week that security forces in the northeastern town city of Chongjin executed a citizen after he burned a large pile of old currency. He was apparently worried that police enforcing currency laws would investigate him to find out how he had gotten rich, the group said.
> 
> Affordable electronics are also cracking open the government's decades-old seal on incoming information. Imported radios -- and televisions in border areas -- are enabling a substantial proportion of the North Korean populations to tune in to Chinese and South Korean stations, as well as to Radio Free Asia and Voice of America, according to an unpublished survey of newly arrived defectors in South Korea. It found that two-thirds of them listened regularly to foreign broadcasts.
> 
> Special correspondent June Lee contributed to this report.


----------



## CougarKing

> *NKorea calls for peace talks, end to sanctions*
> 
> BY HYUNG-JIN KIM, Associated Press Writer Hyung-jin Kim, Associated Press Writer – 2 hrs 41 mins ago
> 
> SEOUL, South Korea – North Korea proposed Monday that *a peace treaty to formally end the Korean War be signed this year*, saying a return to negotiations on its nuclear program depends on better relations with Washington and the lifting of sanctions.
> 
> The North has long demanded a peace treaty, but President Barack Obama's special envoy for human rights in North Korea said in Seoul on Monday that the communist regime must improve its "appalling" human rights record before any normalization of relations.
> 
> Washington and Pyongyang have never had diplomatic relations because the 1950-53 Korean War ended in a truce, not a peace treaty, thus leaving the peninsula technically at war. North Korea, the U.S.-led United Nations Command and China signed a cease-fire, but South Korea never did.
> 
> The United States has resisted signing a treaty with North while it possesses nuclear weapons. Washington has said, however, that the subject can be discussed within the framework of six-nation negotiations aimed at ridding Pyongyang of atomic weapons. Those talks have not been held for more than a year.
> 
> But the North indicated Monday it won't rejoin the nuclear forum until talks begin on a peace treaty. The communist country pulled out of the nuclear talks last year to protest international sanctions imposed for its launch of a long-range missile.
> 
> South Korea is also suspicious of the North's calls for a peace treaty, calls for which Seoul has said are *a tactic to delay its denuclearization.*
> 
> The North's Foreign Ministry said in a statement the absence of a peace treaty is a "root cause of the hostile relations" with the U.S. The ministry called for a peace treaty to be signed this year, which it emphasized marks the 60th anniversary of the outbreak of the Korean War.
> 
> "The conclusion of the peace treaty will help terminate the hostile relations between (North Korea) and the U.S. and positively promote the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula at a rapid tempo," the statement said.
> 
> The proposal comes after a landmark visit to North last month by Stephen Bosworth, Obama's special envoy for the country. Bosworth said after his trip that the North agreed on the necessity of returning to the talks, though the country has not said when it would rejoin them.
> 
> "This appears to be an overture by the North Koreans to try and, in their own way, break through the logjam that we have seen for more than a year now in the (six-party) talks," said Peter Beck, an expert on North Korea currently conducting research at Stanford University.
> 
> During the talks, North Korea had agreed to disarm in exchange for economic aid, security assurances and diplomatic recognition.
> 
> North Korea also suggested that the withdrawal of sanctions could lead to a speedy resumption of the talks.
> 
> "The removal of the barrier of such discrimination and distrust as sanctions may soon lead to the opening of the six-party talks," the North's statement said.
> 
> Robert King, Obama's special envoy for human rights in North Korea, harshly criticized the communist country Monday and said that the situation is preventing a normalization of relations.
> 
> "It's one of the worst places in terms of lack of human rights," King told reporters after meeting South Korea's foreign minister. "The situation is appalling."
> 
> He added, "Improved relations between the United States and North Korea will have to involve greater respect for human rights by North Korea."
> 
> North Korea holds some 154,000 political prisoners in six large camps across the country, according to South Korean government estimates. Pyongyang denies the existence of prison camps and often reacts strongly to foreign criticism regarding human rights.


From the Associated Press via Yahoo News-


----------



## CougarKing

So much for the peace treaty they were discussing last week.     :

Associated Press article



> SEOUL, South Korea – North Korean leader Kim Jong Il said his country must bolster its armed forces, state media reported Sunday, two days after his regime warned it was prepared to launch a war against South Korea if necessary.
> (...)
> 
> On Sunday, the North's official Korean Central News Agency said Kim had inspected a joint army, navy and air force drill that demonstrated the country's "merciless striking power" against anyone trying to infringe on its territory.
> 
> (...)
> The report did not say when or where the joint drill took place.
> 
> *Kim routinely visits military units and inspects their training to bolster his "songun," or "military-first," policy that rewards the 1.2 million-member armed forces — the backbone of his authoritarian rule of the country's 24 million people. He often calls for a stronger military during the visits.*
> 
> (...)


----------



## CougarKing

It's about time the South Koreans put their money (or in this case, their forces) where the defence minister's mouth was.

Associated Press article link



> SEOUL, South Korea – *South Korea's defense chief called Wednesday for a pre-emptive strike on North Korea if there is a clear indication the country is preparing a nuclear attack.*
> 
> The comments came as the two sides opened a second day of talks on further developing their joint industrial complex in the North, and were likely to draw an angry reaction from Pyongyang, which recently issued its own threat to break off dialogue with Seoul and attack.
> 
> South Korea should "immediately launch a strike" on the North if there is a clear intention of a pending nuclear attack, Defense Minister Kim Tae-young said at a seminar in Seoul.
> 
> Kim made similar remarks in 2008 when he was chairman of South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff, prompting North Korea to threaten South Korea with destruction.
> 
> The North, which conducted underground nuclear tests in 2006 and 2009, claims its nuclear weapons are not for use against South Korea, but rather are a security guarantee against what it claims is U.S. hostility.
> 
> *Despite the rhetoric from both sides, officials held follow-up discussions Wednesday on the industrial complex in the North's border city of Kaesong, according to Seoul's Unification Ministry. It did not provide further details.*
> The South Korean delegation was scheduled to return home later Wednesday, said Unification Ministry spokesman Chun Hae-sung.
> 
> On Tuesday, they met for nearly four hours to assess their joint tour of industrial parks in China and Vietnam undertaken in December.
> 
> Chun had described the talks as taking place "in a serious and practical atmosphere."
> 
> *Seoul stressed the need for a quick and easy system for border crossings and customs clearance for South Koreans who travel to and from the industrial park, Chun said, in an apparent call on the North to improve the system.
> 
> The North said their recent surveys in China and Vietnam offered an opportunity to revitalize the complex, Chun said.
> 
> Kaesong, which combines South Korean capital and technology with cheap North Korean labor, is the most prominent symbol of inter-Korean cooperation. About 110 South Korean factories employ some 42,000 North Korean workers.*
> The complex came under a cloud in late 2008, however, when North Korea tightened restrictions on border crossings amid growing tensions between the two countries.
> 
> This week's talks came just days after Pyongyang threatened to launch a "sacred nationwide retaliatory battle" and vowed to cease all communication with the South following reports of a South Korean contingency plan to handle any unrest in the isolated North.
> 
> Meanwhile, South Korea's top nuclear envoy Wi Sung-lac left for the U.S. on Wednesday for talks with Stephen Bosworth, the special U.S. envoy to North Korea, and other U.S. officials on the North's nuclear programs, according to the Foreign Ministry.
> 
> The trip comes as North Korea has recently made repeated demands that international sanctions be lifted before it will return to stalled negotiations aimed at ending its nuclear weapons programs.
> 
> (...)


----------



## CougarKing

Just another border "skirmish"?

Associated Press link



> SEOUL, South Korea – North and South Korea exchanged artillery fire along their disputed western sea border on Wednesday, two days after the North designated no-sail zones in the area, the military and news reports said.
> 
> *North Korea fired several rounds of land-based artillery off its coast, an officer at the Joint Chiefs of Staff in Seoul said. The officer, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of department policy, said no causalities or damage were immediately reported.
> 
> South Korea, in response, immediately fired warning shots from a marine base on an island near the sea border, according to Seoul's Yonhap news agency.*
> 
> Yonhap, citing an unidentified military official, said both Koreas fired into the air.
> 
> South Korea's YTN television network carried a similar report on the exchange of fire.
> (...)


----------



## old medic

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE60R1RS20100128

North Korea fires artillery again toward South



> SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korea fired several artillery rounds on Thursday in the direction of a South Korean island off the peninsula, a second day of shooting near a disputed sea border that has been the site of deadly clashes in the past.
> 
> Rounds landed on the North's side of the disputed maritime border off the west coast of the rival states, a Defense Ministry official said. The South did not return fire.
> 
> Some analysts said the North may be trying to provoke tension with U.S. military ally South Korea to drive home its demand for talks with Washington to reach a peace treaty to replace the armistice that halted the 1950-53 Korean War.
> 
> The two Koreas remain technically at war and share one of the world's most militarized borders.
> 
> North Korea has declared a no-sail zone in the Yellow Sea waters for two months ending in late March, a sign it might be preparing to fire artillery or test launch missiles.
> 
> "They were firing at their side of the border and unlike yesterday we did not have clear visual confirmation," the defense official said asking not to be named.
> 
> The mercurial North, which has made war threats against the South in recent weeks, has also agreed to Seoul's calls for dialogue on the operations of a joint industrial park that provides the socialist state with hard cash.
> 
> Separately on Thursday, the North said it had captured an American who was trespassing in its northern region that borders China. In the past Pyongyang has used foreign detainees as bargaining chips.
> 
> It already holds another American, activist Robert Park, who was caught at the border last month. He said beforehand he was crossing to raise awareness about the North's human rights abuses.
> 
> Clashes between the neighbors have been contained in recent years with impact on financial markets negligible or short-lived, but analysts said the North could further escalate tension by shooting across the sea border or firing short-range missiles.
> 
> North Korea fired about 100 artillery rounds on Wednesday and threatened to fire more as a part of a military drill. South Korea returned fire with warning shots and said the North's move was a cause for grave concern while urging Pyongyang to stop.
> 
> South Korea's won was down slightly after the initial reports of the firing. The main stock index was muted.
> 
> North Korea has more than 10,000 pieces of artillery aimed at the wealthy South and which could in a matter of hours destroy much of the capital Seoul, 25 miles from the border.
> 
> The firing came when President Lee Myung-bak was traveling to Davos in Switzerland for the World Economic Forum after a state visit to India.
> 
> The latest clash comes amid signals from Pyongyang it was ready to return after a year-long boycott to six-country talks on ending its atomic arms programme.
> 
> Earlier this week Pyongyang accused the South of declaring war by saying it would launch a pre-emptive strike if it had clear signs the North was preparing a nuclear attack.


----------



## a_majoor

Is this really how North Koreans think? If true, it is really worrying:

http://www.slate.com/id/2243112/



> *A Nation of Racist Dwarfs*
> Kim Jong-il's regime is even weirder and more despicable than you thought.
> By Christopher Hitchens
> Posted Monday, Feb. 1, 2010, at 10:01 AM ET
> 
> Visiting North Korea some years ago, I was lucky to have a fairly genial "minder" whom I'll call Mr. Chae. He guided me patiently around the ruined and starving country, explaining things away by means of a sort of denial mechanism and never seeming to lose interest in the gargantuan monuments to the world's most hysterical and operatic leader-cult.
> 
> One evening, as we tried to dine on some gristly bits of duck, he mentioned yet another reason why the day should not long be postponed when the whole peninsula was united under the beaming rule of the Dear Leader. The people of South Korea, he pointed out, were becoming mongrelized. They wedded foreigners—even black American soldiers, or so he'd heard to his evident disgust—and were losing their purity and distinction. Not for Mr. Chae the charm of the ethnic mosaic, but rather a rigid and unpolluted uniformity.
> 
> I was struck at the time by how matter-of-factly he said this, as if he took it for granted that I would find it uncontroversial. And I did briefly wonder whether this form of totalitarianism, too (because nothing is more "total" than racist nationalism), was part of the pitch made to its subjects by the North Korean state. But I was preoccupied, as are most of the country's few visitors, by the more imposing and exotic forms of totalitarianism on offer: by the giant mausoleums and parades that seemed to fuse classical Stalinism with a contorted form of the deferential, patriarchal Confucian ethos.
> 
> Karl Marx in his Eighteenth Brumaire wrote that those trying to master a new language always begin by translating it back into the tongue they already know. And I was limiting myself (and ill-serving my readers) in using the pre-existing imagery of Stalinism and Eastern deference. I have recently donned the bifocals provided by B.R. Myers in his electrifying new book The Cleanest Race: How North Koreans See Themselves and Why It Matters, and I understand now that I got the picture either upside down or inside out. The whole idea of communism is dead in North Korea, and its most recent "Constitution," "ratified" last April, has dropped all mention of the word. The analogies to Confucianism are glib, and such parallels with it as can be drawn are intended by the regime only for the consumption of outsiders. Myers makes a persuasive case that we should instead regard the Kim Jong-il system as a phenomenon of the very extreme and pathological right. It is based on totalitarian "military first" mobilization, is maintained by slave labor, and instills an ideology of the most unapologetic racism and xenophobia.
> 
> These conclusions of his, in a finely argued and brilliantly written book, carry the worrisome implication that the propaganda of the regime may actually mean exactly what it says, which in turn would mean that peace and disarmament negotiations with it are a waste of time—and perhaps a dangerous waste at that.
> 
> Consider: Even in the days of communism, there were reports from Eastern Bloc and Cuban diplomats about the paranoid character of the system (which had no concept of deterrence and told its own people that it had signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty in bad faith) and also about its intense hatred of foreigners. A black Cuban diplomat was almost lynched when he tried to show his family the sights of Pyongyang. North Korean women who return pregnant from China—the regime's main ally and protector—are forced to submit to abortions. Wall posters and banners depicting all Japanese as barbarians are only equaled by the ways in which Americans are caricatured as hook-nosed monsters. (The illustrations in this book are an education in themselves.) The United States and its partners make up in aid for the huge shortfall in North Korea's food production, but there is not a hint of acknowledgement of this by the authorities, who tell their captive subjects that the bags of grain stenciled with the Stars and Stripes are tribute paid by a frightened America to the Dear Leader.
> 
> Myers also points out that many of the slogans employed and displayed by the North Korean state are borrowed directly—this really does count as some kind of irony—from the kamikaze ideology of Japanese imperialism. Every child is told every day of the wonderful possibility of death by immolation in the service of the motherland and taught not to fear the idea of war, not even a nuclear one.
> 
> The regime cannot rule by terror alone, and now all it has left is its race-based military ideology. Small wonder that each "negotiation" with it is more humiliating than the previous one. As Myers points out, we cannot expect it to bargain away its very raison d'etre.
> 
> All of us who scrutinize North Korean affairs are preoccupied with one question. Do these slaves really love their chains? The conundrum has several obscene corollaries. The people of that tiny and nightmarish state are not, of course, allowed to make comparisons with the lives of others, and if they complain or offend, they are shunted off to camps that—to judge by the standard of care and nutrition in the "wider" society—must be a living hell excusable only by the brevity of its duration. But race arrogance and nationalist hysteria are powerful cements for the most odious systems, as Europeans and Americans have good reason to remember. Even in South Korea there are those who feel the Kim Jong-il regime, under which they themselves could not live for a single day, to be somehow more "authentically" Korean.
> 
> Here are the two most shattering facts about North Korea. First, when viewed by satellite photography at night, it is an area of unrelieved darkness. Barely a scintilla of light is visible even in the capital city. (See this famous photograph.) Second, a North Korean is on average six inches shorter than a South Korean. You may care to imagine how much surplus value has been wrung out of such a slave, and for how long, in order to feed and sustain the militarized crime family that completely owns both the country and its people.
> 
> But this is what proves Myers right. Unlike previous racist dictatorships, the North Korean one has actually succeeded in producing a sort of new species. Starving and stunted dwarves, living in the dark, kept in perpetual ignorance and fear, brainwashed into the hatred of others, regimented and coerced and inculcated with a death cult: This horror show is in our future, and is so ghastly that our own darling leaders dare not face it and can only peep through their fingers at what is coming.


----------



## CougarKing

China uses its economic power to prod N.Korea to get back to talks:

Canadian Press link



> SEOUL, South Korea - *China plans to invest billions of dollars in North Korea in an apparent effort to prod the impoverished country to rejoin international nuclear disarmament talks, a news report said Monday*.
> 
> 
> The news came one week after North Korean leader Kim Jong Il told a visiting high-level envoy from Beijing that he was committed to a nuclear-free Korea. Kim subsequently dispatched his top nuclear envoy to Beijing for talks on the resumption of six-nation negotiations on ending its nuclear program in return for aid.
> 
> 
> *Several state-run Chinese banks and other multinational companies neared an agreement to invest about $10 billion to build railroads, harbours and houses in North Korea following their negotiations with Pyongyang's official Korea Taepung International Investment Group, according to Seoul's Yonhap news agency.
> 
> 
> More than 60 per cent of the $10 billion investment would come from the Chinese banks*, Yonhap reported citing an unidentified source it described as knowledgeable about the situation at the North Korean investment agency.
> 
> 
> (...)


----------



## CANADIAN F0RCES

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,588342,00.html



SEOUL, South Korea —  North Korea's army said Monday it is ready to "blow up" South Korea and the U.S., hours after the allies kicked off annual military drills that Pyongyang has slammed as a rehearsal for attack.

South Korea and the U.S. — which normally dismiss such threats as rhetoric — began 11 days of drills across South Korea on Monday morning to rehearse how the U.S. would deploy in time of emergency on the Korean peninsula.

The U.S. and South Korea argue the drills — which include live firing by U.S. Marines, aerial attack drills and urban warfare training — are purely defensive. North Korea claims they amount to attack preparations and has demanded they be canceled.

The North's People's Army issued a statement Monday, warning the drills created a tense situation and that its troops are "fully ready" to "blow up" the allies once the order is issued.

The North also put all its soldiers and reservists on high alert to "mercilessly crush the aggressors" should they encroach upon the North's territory even slightly, said the statement carried by the official Korean Central News Agency.

The communist country has issued similar rhetoric in the days leading up the drills. On Sunday, it said it would bolster its nuclear capability and break off dialogue with the U.S. in response to the drills.

South Korea's military has been closely monitoring Pyongyang's maneuvers but hasn't seen any signs of suspicious activities by North Korean troops, Seoul's Joint Chiefs of Staff said earlier Monday.

"We see it as (North Korea's) stereotype denouncement," Defense Ministry spokesman Won Tae-jae told reporters.

About 20 anti-U.S. activists held a peaceful protest near a joint drill command center south of Seoul on Monday, chanting slogans such as "Stop war rehearsal."

About 18,000 American soldiers and an undisclosed number of South Korean troops are taking part in the drills, dubbed Key Resolve and Foal Eagle, according to U.S. and South Korean militaries.

The training comes as the U.S. and other regional powers are pushing for the North to rejoin international disarmament talks on ending its atomic weapons program in return for aid. The North quit the six-nation weapons talks and conducted its second nuclear test last year, drawing tighter U.N. sanctions.

The North has demanded a lifting of the sanctions and peace talks with the U.S. on formally ending the Korean War before it returns to the negotiations. The U.S. and South Korea have responded that the North must first return to the disarmament talks and make progress on denuclearization.

The U.S. stations about 28,500 troops in South Korea.






hmm, any input on this?


----------



## CougarKing

In addition to the possible latest skirmish between North and South Korean warships as described in this thread, this other update shows that the North Korean propaganda minister and his commissars are still smoking the same stuff:  :



> Associated Press link
> 
> SEOUL, South Korea –* North Korea's military warned South Korea and the United States on Friday of "unprecedented nuclear strikes" over a report the two countries plan to prepare for possible instability in the totalitarian country.
> 
> The North routinely issues such warnings and officials in Seoul and Washington react calmly. Diplomats in South Korea and the U.S. instead have repeatedly called on Pyongyang to return to international negotiations aimed at ending its nuclear programs.*
> "Those who seek to bring down the system in the (North), whether they play a main role or a passive role, will fall victim to the unprecedented nuclear strikes of the invincible army," North Korea's military said in comments carried by the official Korean Central News Agency.
> 
> The North, believed have enough weaponized plutonium for at least half a dozen atomic bombs, conducted its second atomic test last year, drawing tighter U.N. sanctions.
> 
> (...)


----------



## CougarKing

Another update in the wake of the sinking of that ROKN warship that rose tensions earlier this week:

Reuters link




> SEOUL (Reuters) - *North Korea warned on Monday of unpredictable disaster unless the South and the United States stop allowing tourists inside a heavily armed border buffer that is one of the most visited spots on the peninsula. *   The warming comes as tensions were raised on the peninsula after a South Korean navy ship sank on Friday. Early reports that the North may have been involved spooked markets but were later played down when Seoul said it was almost certain Pyongyang had no part in the incident.
> 
> 
> North Korea has made no mention of the ship-sinking incident in its official media.
> 
> 
> An unnamed army spokesman of the North's Korean People's Army said South Korea was engaged in "deliberate acts to turn the DMZ into theater of confrontation with the (North) and a site of psychological warfare" by allowing tours inside the border zone.
> 
> (...)


----------



## CougarKing

The South Korean President orders his military on full alert in the wake of the recent ROK warship sinking:

Associated Press link



> SEOUL, South Korea – *South Korea's president ordered the military on alert Tuesday for any moves by rival North Korea after the defense minister said last week's explosion and sinking of a South Korean ship may have been caused by a North Korean mine.*
> The blast ripped the 1,200-ton ship apart last Friday night during a routine patrol mission near Baengnyeong Island, along the tense maritime border west of the Korean peninsula. Fifty-eight crew members, including the captain, were plucked to safety; 46 remain missing with dim prospects for finding any further survivors.
> 
> *The Joint Chief of Staff said the exact cause was unclear, and U.S. and South Korean officials said there was no outward indication of North Korean involvement.
> 
> However, Defense Minister Kim Tae-young told lawmakers Monday that a floating mine dispatched from North Korea was one of several scenarios for the disaster. "Neither the government nor the defense ministry has ever said there was no possibility of North Korea's involvement," Kim said.*
> (...)


----------



## CougarKing

An update from the _Associated Press_:



> *Analysts say NKorea hinting at 3rd nuke test*
> Updated April 22, 2010 03:00 AM
> 
> SEOUL (AP) – North Korea may be preparing to carry out a third nuclear test, analysts and a high-ranking defector said yesterday, citing language in state media hinting of an impending crisis on the peninsula.
> 
> Speculation that communist North Korea might conduct another nuclear test, in defiance of UN Security Council resolutions, grew after the South Korean cable network YTN reported Tuesday that the North has been preparing since February to conduct a test in May or June. YTN cited an unidentified diplomatic source.
> 
> Tensions are high on the Korean peninsula in the wake of the deadly sinking of a South Korean navy ship near the maritime border with North Korea.
> 
> Foreign Minister Yu Myung-hwan said he had no information to suggest preparations for a nuclear test were underway.
> 
> However, analysts and a former North Korean official said recent statements hint of preparations for another nuclear test.
> 
> (...)


----------



## CougarKing

So much for the South seeking retribution for the sinking of their warship, _Cheonan_, last month:



> Wall Street Journal link
> 
> "*Though the public favors punishing the North, there is little appetite for warlike action that would disrupt the South Korean economy or destabilize the North enough to require the South to take it over.
> 
> President Lee Myung-bak said last week he has no intention of invading the North.* U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on Friday called for calm.
> 
> (...)


----------



## a_majoor

> there is little appetite for warlike action that would disrupt the South Korean economy or destabilize the North enough to require the South to take it over.



Robert Kaplan wrote about this in the Atlantic, and pointed out that the projected costs of reconstituting the civil society and infrastructure of the DPRK after the fall was so horrendous that the ROK and United States are very hesitant to even move in that direction. The Japanese would be shut out of any meaningful role in the reunification for historical reasons, and China and Russia would both work to find ways to benefit at the expense of a tied down American/ROK nation building effort.

Greater Korea would probably discover the port and transport infrastructure of the Tumen River region have been absorbed by China or (long shot) Russia during the turmoil of reunification, and no doubt many other nasty surprises would be waiting for would be nation builders. On the other hand, "Downfall" is pretty much inevitable in brittle, authoritarian regimes, so someone, somewhere should be making plans.


----------



## CougarKing

Thucydides said:
			
		

> Greater Korea would probably discover the port and transport infrastructure of the Tumen River region have been absorbed by China or (long shot) Russia during the turmoil of reunification,



Thucydides,
Speaking of a "Greater" or "United" Korea, did you read this other recent thread on the future possibility of a united Korea as a superpower?(link) 

Also, wouldn't China's claim on such a region be shaky, considering part of historical Korea actually extends into what is now northeast China?  (And in spite of the fact that Korea was recognized as just another "tributary state" by Qing Dynasty-era China later on) And there are still many Chinese citizens of Korean descent within the northeast Chinese border regions.

Look at this map below showing the old kingdoms of Korea:







  

This map shows the real extent of the ethnic Korean nation, regardless of present-day national borders. Millions of more peninsular Koreans moved into China during the Japanese annexation of 1910 and even before.


----------



## a_majoor

I'm not sure how the people of Korean ancestry will factor in China's plans if/when the DPRK collapses, just another variable in the complex calculus. What is a bit disconcerting is the fact that no one seems to have a coordinated response (or even a unilateral response) plan in mind. Perhaps there is one under reaps, we can only hope:

http://the-diplomat.com/2010/05/12/get-ready-for-dprk-collapse/



> *Get Ready for DPRK Collapse*
> May 12, 2010
> 
> The Six-Party Talks are looking hopeless, says Minxin Pei. It’s time for policymakers to start planning for the worst. Now.
> By Minxin Pei
> 
> The motives behind North Korean leader Kim Jong-il’s ‘unofficial’ visit to China last week may not be that hard to decipher. Most analysts suspect he went to see his most important patron to seek more aid and, in all likelihood, his Chinese patrons would have thrown a bone or two to him to bribe him back to the increasingly meaningless Six-Party Talks.  But if the stakeholders in East Asia’s peace and stability focus their attention on whether China’s prodding will lead to a more fruitful outcome in dismantling North Korea’s nuclear weapons programme this time, they’re simply wasting their time.
> 
> Pyongyang’s record on this issue speaks for itself: North Korea has no intention of honouring its commitments to the Six-Party Talks or abandoning its nuclear capabilities.
> 
> Judging by recent developments inside North Korea, however, clinging on to its nukes may not actually help prolong Kim Jong-il’s regime. The country’s unfolding economic catastrophe has clearly taken a toll on the regime’s legitimacy and durability—only the most desperate governments in history have resorted to outright confiscation of its people’s money. Seasoned analysts have also reported rising popular resentment against Pyongyang. Thanks to the sanctions imposed by the United Nations and other efforts to weaken Kim Jong-il’s regime, North Korea has failed to blackmail the international community into supplying more economic assistance.
> 
> More importantly, the Kim Jong-il regime, which has become a classic family dictatorship, is about to face its most difficult test of survival: succession. Stricken by a stroke not too long ago, Kim Jong-il is in frail health and his hold on power is certain to weaken. He appears desperate to install his 27-year old son, Kim Jong-un, as his successor. Unfortunately for the Kim dynasty, this process is likely to end in failure. A review of transfers of power in modern family dictatorships (excluding traditional monarchies) shows that the chances of a successful succession from the first-generation dictator to his son are roughly one in four, and no grandson of a first-generation dictator has ever succeeded in taking over a regime and consolidating his power.
> 
> Of course, the Kim dynasty may set a precedent. But given the worsening economy, the inexperience of the putative successor and the unknown reliability of the Korean military and security forces in the event of Kim Jong-il’s death, the rest of East Asia should be prepared for a scenario of rapid collapse in North Korea.
> 
> What is most worrying about a possible North Korean collapse is that the key players in the region are not talking to each other, even informally, about such an eventuality. It’s almost certain that these powers—China, the United States, Japan, South Korea and, possibly, Russia—have all drawn up their own contingency plans for Pyongyang’s quick collapse. However, they’ve done nothing to explore a collective response to what is without doubt a geopolitical game-changer.
> 
> As a result, many crucial questions remain unanswered. For instance, how should the United States and South Korea react if China sends combat troops into North Korea to conduct ‘humanitarian assistance’ missions? In all likelihood, Beijing will be tempted to do so if millions of refugees start fleeing into China. Which country will take the lead in securing nuclear materials? How will China respond to the crossing of the 38th parallel by South Korean and US forces? Who will take the lead in reaching out to Pyongyang’s post-Kim regime? What will be the collective security architecture after the Korean peninsula is reunified?
> 
> These critical issues are deemed too sensitive for US, Chinese, Japanese and South Korean government officials to discuss. As a result, few are thinking about these difficult issues, let alone exploring workable solutions that could help avoid a possible conflict between China and the United States over a collapsing North Korea and construct an enduring peace after the departure of the Kim dynasty.
> 
> Given the lack of strategic trust among the key players in this volatile region, it’s probably a bad idea to count on government officials to have a sudden change of heart. Instead, a track-two approach, which consists of well-structured informal discussions and scenario planning among former government officials, academics and policy specialists, may be a first step forward. If nothing else, such privately sponsored efforts should put the most important and potentially most de-stabilizing issues on the table.
> 
> For Kim Jong-il’s Chinese hosts, even such a modest proposal may be anathema. But they would be in denial. All they need to do is to take a look at the photo of the sickly Kim and ask themselves a simple question: should we have a Plan B?
> 
> Minxin Pei is Professor of Government at Claremont McKenna College and adjunct senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment.


----------



## Edward Campbell

At a *guess*:

1. China is ready and able, on almost no notice to occupy the DPRK and _manage_ it as a sort of (temporary) Autonomous Region, not quite like Tibet and Xinxiang which are integral parts of China but, rather, as something akin to a _trusteeship_.

2. China will aim to keep all the Koreans in Korea.

3. China can and will secure the DPRK nuclear programmes - civil and military. 

4. US and South Korean troops will not cross the 38th parallel. China will not permit such an incursion and neither the US nor South Korea will want to risk offending China on this matter.

5. China will, quickly, open long term reunification talks with South Korea. The US will not be invited to participate.

6. China's long term aim is a reunified Korea which is friendly to China and 'free' of US 'occupation.'

My guess, anyway, worth what you are paying for it.


----------



## GAP

That is the most sound analysis I have read on the subject....simple, but concise, and VERY likely..


----------



## GAP

South Korea Gets Ready For Anything
Article Link

May 13, 2010: South Korea, alarmed at what appears to be the North Korean use of a Yu-3 type torpedo to sink one of their warships, has undertaken to reform their armed forces to better deal with tactics like this. North Korea officially denies having anything to do with the loss of the 1200 ton corvette Cheonan, but most North Koreans accept the fact that North Korea did the deed, and northerners are proud of that. Examination of the salvaged wreckage made it clear that it was an external explosion, using military grade explosives, that sank the ship and killed 46 sailors on March 26th. North Korea was believed to have done this avenge earlier skirmishes that led to the sinking of North Korean warships.

The reforms are meant to prepare South Korean forces to better deal with these North Korean tactics. This includes coping with the large force of commandos and small submarines North Korea has created. For decades, North Korea has been sending commandos and agents south, landing them from these small subs. North Korea has also assassinated South Korean officials and civilians in other countries. South Korea tolerated this until now, but the sinking of the Cheonan crossed a line, and the South Korean government wants to develop ways to strike back.

For the last decade, the South Korean military has been preparing to deal with collapse in the north. Last year, the government made public what many have suspected for several years now. If North Korea attacks, South Korea is prepared to go north. This is no surprise to those who have been observing the South Korean armed forces development after the end of the Cold War in 1991. During the same time, the North Korean armed forces have declined because of a bankrupt economy and no money for replacing obsolete equipment, or for training. Meanwhile, the booming economy in the south led to the growth of domestic arms industry, and the re-equipping the South Korean military with modern, and locally made, weapons.

Over the last two decades, South Korea has developed, and produced in large numbers, their own equivalents of the U.S. M-1 tank (the South Korean K-1 and K-2), the U.S. M-2 Infantry Fighting Vehicle (the South Korean K-21) and the U.S. M-109 self-propelled 155mm howitzer (the South Korean K-9), and much more. The South Koreans used the American equipment as models, and then built on that.

South Korea also manufactures an Aegis destroyer (the KDX III class), a new class of frigate (FFK) and a light fighter/trainer jet (the T-50). South Korea offers most of this new gear for export, at a substantial discount to what their U.S. equivalents would cost, and backs them up with the South Korean reputation of producing sturdy and reliable industrial goods (everything from large ships to tiny micro chips). This provided South Korea with a decisive military edge over its aggressive northern neighbor, North Korea.
More on link


----------



## CougarKing

Speaking of "anything"...


link



> SEOUL, South Korea - *Two North Korean naval boats briefly crossed the tense western sea border with South Korea in the first such violation since a South Korean warship sank in the area following a mysterious explosion in March, the South's military said Sunday.*
> 
> *A North Korean patrol boat sailed about 1.6 miles (2.8 kilometres) into the South-controlled waters on Saturday night but quickly retreated after a South Korean broadcast warning*, according to Seoul's Joint Chiefs of Staff.
> 
> 
> *In less than an hour, another North Korean patrol boat intruded across the border but returned to its waters after another warning broadcast and two shots from the South Korean vessel, a Joint Chiefs of Staff officer said on condition of anonymity citing department policy. There were no injuries reported, he added.*
> 
> 
> The Korean maritime border is not clearly marked, and violations by North Korean military and fishing boats are not unusual. But Saturday's incursion marks the North's first border violation since the 1,200-ton South Korean warship went down near the area on March 26, killing 46 South Korean sailors.
> 
> 
> Seoul has not directly blamed North Korea for the sinking, and Pyongyang has denied involvement, but suspicion has focused on the North given its history of attacks. The two Koreas remain technically locked in a state of war because their three-year conflict ended in a truce, not a peace treaty, in 1953. Their navies fought three bloody sea battles near the disputed sea border since 1999.
> 
> 
> South Korea has said it will take stern action against anyone responsible for the sinking — one of its worst maritime disasters. The government was to announce the results of its investigation in the coming week.
> 
> 
> On Sunday, Yonhap news agency reported that South Korean investigators have obtained unspecified evidence showing North Korea's involvement in the sinking. Yonhap citing an unidentified government source as saying South Korea's military was considering issuing an anti-North Korea statement after the investigation outcome is announced.
> 
> 
> South Korea's Defence Ministry and Joint Chiefs of Staff said they could not confirm the report because the investigation was still under way.
> 
> (...)


----------



## tomahawk6

Here's a link to North Korea Econ Watch and other links. Good resource material.


http://www.nkeconwatch.com/

Military:
http://www.nkeconwatch.com/north-korea-military-resources/


----------



## CougarKing

Meanwhile, the US and South Korea both seek a "full accounting" of the sinking of the ROKNS _Cheonan_ last March.

Agence-France Presse link



> WASHINGTON (AFP) - *US President Barack Obama and South Korea's Lee Myung-bak have spoken by telephone and stressed the need for a "full accounting" of the sinking of a South Korean warship in March, the White House said.*
> "President Lee provided an update on the status of the investigation into the sinking of the ROK naval vessel Cheonan in which 46 Korean sailors lost their lives," the White House said in a statement.
> 
> 
> "The two leaders emphasized the importance of obtaining a full accounting of the event and committed to follow the facts of the investigation wherever they lead."



Plus: "decisive evidence" found?

Agence-France Presse link



> SEOUL (AFP) - *South Korea has found "decisive evidence" that a North Korean torpedo sank one of its warships after analysing chemical traces found on the wreckage, a media report said Tuesday.
> 
> A multinational team investigating the March 26 sinking of the Cheonan is due to report on Thursday.
> 
> South Korea has promised a "resolute response" if the North is proved to have been to blame.*
> 
> "The analysis of metal pieces and traces of explosive recovered from the Cheonan and the seabed led us to secure decisive evidence that there was a North Korean torpedo attack," Yonhap news agency quoted a military source as saying.
> 
> 
> The explosive traces have a similar chemical make-up to substances found in a stray North Korean torpedo secured by South Korea seven years ago, the source was quoted as saying.
> 
> 
> The defence ministry refused comment before the official announcement on Thursday.
> 
> 
> *An explosion broke the 1,200-tonne corvette in two near the disputed inter-Korean border with the loss of 46 lives.
> 
> 
> Yonhap and other media also said a fragment presumed to be part of the torpedo's propeller had been found*. Dong-A Ilbo newspaper said investigators have concluded the fragment was from a torpedo made in either China or Russia.


----------



## burnaby

http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2010/05/18/southkorea-warship-sunk-by-north.html

It is "obvious" North Korea sank one of the South Korea's warships in March, killing 46 sailors, South Korea's foreign minister said Wednesday.

Foreign Minister Yu Myung-hwan told reporters that investigators have enough evidence of North Korean involvement in the sinking of the Cheonan to take Pyongyang to the UN Security Council.

Yu's comments are the first by a South Korean official clearly pointing the finger at North Korea for one of the worst attacks on the South since the two Koreas signed a truce in 1953 to end three years of fighting.

Asked whether North Korea sank the ship, Yu said: "I think it's obvious." He declined to provide further details, saying the official results of the multinational investigation into the incident would be released Thursday.

North Korea has denied involvement in the sinking of the Cheonan.....

Read more: http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2010/05/18/southkorea-warship-sunk-by-north.html#ixzz0oM4FpgF8

Another similar incident:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8685053.stm

South Korea's navy has fired warning shots at a patrol boat from the North, the most serious skirmish since a Southern ship was sunk on 26 March.

Two vessels had violated a disputed border known as the Northern Limit Line, South Korea's military said.

"Two patrol boats crossed on two separate occasions and warning shots were fired," an official said.

Tensions have been high since a South Korean warship mysteriously sank on March 26, killing 46 sailors.

A North Korean patrol boat sailed 2.8km (1.6 miles) into South-controlled waters on Saturday, said Seoul's Joint Chiefs of Staff.

It retreated after a South Korean ship broadcast a warning, reports say. 

Read More: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8685053.stm

My question is what do North Korea have to gain? it already have enough political leverage to gain resources from the West. 

Oh can some move this to the North Korean super thread? Thanks


----------



## armyvern

It will be very interesting to watch this play out indeed. 

Reproduced under the fairdealings provisions of the copyright act ...

North Korea Denies Sinking Warship



> Washington (CNN) -- The president of South Korea has vowed "resolute" measures against North Korea for its alleged attack on a South Korean warship, South Korea's Yonhap News Agency reported Thursday.
> 
> A five-country committee announced Thursday morning in Seoul that they had concluded a North Korean submarine fired a torpedo that sunk the South Korea warship in March.
> 
> Investigators recovered a propeller from the torpedo that blew the Cheonan in half on March 26, Yoon Duk-yong, the committee's co-chair, told reporters.
> 
> The propeller was from the kind of "torpedoes that were exported from North Korea and the letters and the fonts on the torpedo are the are the same that are used by North Korea," Yoon said at a Thursday morning news conference. "This torpedo was manufactured in North Korea."
> 
> Yoon said that the investigation found that a small to mid-sized North Korea sub "fired the torpedo that sunk the Cheonan vessel and retreated back to their border."
> 
> As the 1,200-ton vessel went down, 46 sailors were lost near disputed waters in the Yellow Sea.
> 
> "(We) will take resolute countermeasures against North Korea and make it admit its wrongdoings through strong international cooperation and return to the international community as a responsible member," President Lee Myung-bak told Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd in phone talks, according to Lee's office, Yonhap reported.
> 
> North Korea denied torpedoing the warship just as the team of investigators in Seoul unveiled their report.
> 
> "We had already warned the South Korean group of traitors not to make reckless remarks concerning the sinking of warship Cheonan of the puppet navy," North Korea's National Defence Commission said in a statement, according to the Korean Central News Agency. "Nevertheless, the group of traitors had far-fetchedly tried to link the case with us without offering any material evidence."
> 
> "It finally announced the results of the joint investigation based on a sheer fabrication" the defense commission said, according to the state-run KCNA. The commission called the new report part of a "smear campaign."
> 
> The White House backed the report issued Thursday in Seoul, saying it "points overwhelmingly to the conclusion that North Korea was responsible for the attack."
> 
> "This act of aggression is one more instance of North Korea's unacceptable behavior and defiance of international law," said a statement by White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs. "This attack constitutes a challenge to international peace and security and is a violation of the Armistice Agreement."
> 
> President Obama spoke with South Korean President Lee bak on Monday and "made clear that the United States fully supports the Republic of Korea, both in the effort to secure justice for the 46 service members killed in this attack and in its defense against further acts of aggression," Gibbs said.
> 
> "North Korea must understand that belligerence towards its neighbors and defiance of the international community are signs of weakness, not strength," Gibbs' statement said. "Such unacceptable behavior only deepens North Korea's isolation. It reinforces the resolve of its neighbors to intensify their cooperation to safeguard peace and stability in the region against all provocations."
> 
> The United States has a mutual defense treaty with South Korea and Japan to defend "against any aggression," so if a military confrontation develops, the United States would be responsible for defending South Korea, a U.S. military official said.
> 
> "I don't think it will come to that," the official said. "They know they need to have a response, but there is too much at stake for South Korea to have a confrontation on the Korean peninsula. North Korea has nothing to lose, but South Korea is a serious country with a huge economy."
> 
> There are military options for South Korea beyond firing missiles, said John Delury, who studies North and South Korea at the Asia Society.
> 
> Anything combative would hurt South Korea economically, Delury said, but the country could increase its naval presence along the line that divides South and North Korea in the waters surrounding the countries. He notes that comes with a risk.
> 
> "Those actions could trigger a conflict," he noted.
> 
> U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who will visit Seoul next week, will talk with the South Korean government about the investigation, Assistant Secretary Campbell said.
> 
> Clinton will also visit Japan and China during her trip, and the North Korean issue is likely to be high on the agenda.
> 
> Clinton will have "the closest possible consultations with Japan, China and South Korea about the next phase," Campbell said.
> 
> On Monday, President Obama spoke on the phone about the investigation with President Lee.
> 
> The president reiterated "the strong and unwavering commitment of the United States to the defense and the well-being of its close friend and ally, the Republic of Korea," a White House statement said about the conversation.


----------



## Jammer

I suspect there will be a lot of public posturing and flag waving, but nothing tangible in the way of retaliation will come of it..


----------



## GAP

Jammer said:
			
		

> I suspect there will be a lot of public posturing and flag waving, but nothing tangible in the way of retaliation will come of it..



Oh, I suspect it will come, but we may not hear about it....North Korea will sure know who did it though...


----------



## CougarKing

More:




> military.com link
> 
> 
> *NKorea Warns War if Punished for Sinking*
> May 20, 2010
> Associated Press
> 
> SEOUL, South Korea -- Tensions deepened Thursday on the Korean peninsula as South Korea accused North Korea of firing a torpedo that sank a naval warship, killing 46 sailors in the country's worst military disaster since the Korean War.
> 
> *President Lee Myung-bak vowed "stern action" for the provocation following the release of long-awaited results from a multinational investigation into the March 26 sinking near the Koreas' tense maritime border. North Korea, reacting swiftly, called the results a fabrication, and warned that any retaliation would trigger war. It continued to deny involvement in the sinking of the warship Cheonan. *
> "If the [South Korean] enemies try to deal any retaliation or punishment, or if they try sanctions or a strike on us ... we will answer to this with all-out war," Col. Pak In Ho of North Korea's navy told broadcaster APTN in an exclusive interview in Pyongyang.
> 
> An international civilian-military investigation team said evidence overwhelmingly proves a North Korean submarine fired a homing torpedo that caused a massive underwater blast that tore the Cheonan apart. Fifty-eight sailors were rescued from the frigid Yellow Sea waters, but 46 perished.
> 
> Since the 1950-53 war on the Korean peninsula ended in a truce rather than a peace treaty, the two Koreas remain locked in a state of war and divided by the world's most heavily armed border.
> 
> The truce prevents Seoul from waging a unilateral military attack.
> 
> However, South Korea and the U.S., which has 28,500 troops on the peninsula, could hold joint military exercises in a show of force, said Daniel Pinkston, a Seoul-based analyst for the International Crisis Group think tank.
> 
> *South Korean and U.S. officials also said they are considering a variety of options in response to the warship's sinking, ranging from U.N. Security Council action to additional U.S. penalties.
> 
> The exchange of war rhetoric raised tensions, but the isolated communist regime -- already under international pressure to cease its nuclear weapons program -- often warns of dire consequences against South Korea or Washington for any punitive steps against it. Its large but decrepit military would be no match for U.S. and Korean forces*.
> 
> 
> 
> The impoverished country is already chafing from international sanctions tightened last year in the wake of widely condemned nuclear and missile tests. U.N. sanctions currently block funding to certain officials and companies, while North Korea is barred from exporting weapons and countries are authorized to inspect North Korean ships suspected of carrying illicit cargo.
> 
> South Korea "will take resolute countermeasures against North Korea and make it admit its wrongdoings through strong international cooperation," Lee said during a call with Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, the presidential office said. Lee convened an emergency meeting for Friday.
> 
> The White House called the sinking an unacceptable "act of aggression" that violates international law and the 1953 truce. Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama declared his support for South Korea, calling North Korea's actions "inexcusable."
> 
> *China, North Korea's traditional ally, called the sinking of the naval ship "unfortunate" but stopped short of backing Seoul. *
> Pyongyang continued its steadfast denials of involvement in the sinking.
> 
> "Our Korean People's Army was not founded for the purpose of attacking others. We have no intention to strike others first," Col. Pak, the naval spokesman, told APTN in the North Korean capital. "So why should we attack a ship like the Cheonan which has no relation with us, no need to strike it and we have no significance in doing so."
> 
> North Korea's powerful National Defense Commission warned the South against provocative acts near their border, and urged the U.S. and Japan to "act with discretion," the state-run Korean Central News Agency said in a dispatch monitored in Seoul.
> 
> North Korea has waged a slew of attacks on South Korea since the 1950-53 fighting ended, including the 1987 downing of a South Korean airliner that killed all 115 people on board.
> 
> Pyongyang has never owned up to the attacks.
> 
> North Korea also disputes the maritime border drawn unilaterally by U.N. forces at the close of the Korean War, and the waters have been the site of several deadly naval clashes since 1999.
> 
> Detailed scientific analysis of the wreckage, as well as fragments recovered from the waters where the Cheonan went down, point to North Korea, investigators said.
> 
> *The bending of the ship's keel backs the theory that an underwater torpedo triggered a shockwave and bubble effect that tore the ship apart, the report said.
> 
> The report also cites fractures on the main deck, statements from survivors and a sentry on a nearby island, and fractures and lacerations on the remains of deceased sailors.
> 
> Pieces of the torpedo "perfectly match" the schematics of a North Korean-made torpedo Pyongyang has tried to sell abroad, chief investigator Yoon Duk-yong said.
> 
> A serial number on one fragment is consistent with markings from a North Korean torpedo that Seoul obtained years earlier, Yoon said.
> 
> "The evidence points overwhelmingly to the conclusion that the torpedo was fired by a North Korean submarine," he said. "There is no other plausible explanation." *
> 
> At Seoul's main train station, scores of people watched raptly as the investigator laid out the evidence against North Korea.
> 
> "I'm afraid," said Naima Vela, 26-year-old student from Italy. "I still have a month or two to stay in Seoul and I don't know if I should."
> 
> Near the Demilitarized Zone, tourists peered across the border into North Korea.
> 
> "As a mother of a boy who is serving his military duty right now, I don't want a war to break out," Jeon Bok-soon said in Paju as she looked across the border into North Korea.
> 
> "However if [North Korea] keeps mentioning war, I think we should also show our strong military power," she said.


----------



## thunderchild

I have been reading about the situation in Korea, I printed off the copy of the report  that was issued today (Thurs 20 may 2010 the joint civilian-military investigation group available on the BBC.COM web site) It seem like a closed case.  I only have a question to put out there, It is regarding how these torpedo components were gathered.  "the torpedo parts were recovered at the site of the explosion by a dredging ship"  How do they know it is the same torpedo if no shrapnel was in the ship's hull or the bodies of the crew?  What should be south Korea's responce?


----------



## Edward Campbell

China has been quite clear: it wants peace on the Korean peninsula. China is the dominant regional power so its wishes matter.

North Korea will be prevented, by China, from doing anything really stupid. South Korea and the USA must be smart, too.


----------



## SocialyDistorted

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> China has been quite clear: it wants peace on the Korean peninsula. China is the dominant regional power so its wishes matter.
> 
> North Korea will be prevented, by China, from doing anything really stupid. South Korea and the USA must be smart, too.



Yes, but it almost seems like NK is using the "HAHA WE'LL DECLARE WAR IF YOU PUNISH US FOR [allegedly] SINKING ONE OF YOUR SHIPS!!!" card against SK and the US


----------



## midget-boyd91

SocialyDistorted said:
			
		

> Yes, but it almost seems like NK is using the "HAHA WE'LL DECLARE WAR IF YOU PUNISH US FOR [allegedly] SINKING ONE OF YOUR SHIPS!!!" card against SK and the US



That is exactly what they have been doing for years. Question is what happens if ROK calls their bluff? Or at what point does the DPRK aggression and attacks go too far? If the North can torpedo ships from the ROK Navy at will because they threaten all out war... how many ships need to be sunk at the cost of how many lives before war is a "resaonable" option for the South?

Oddball


----------



## The Bread Guy

This from koreatimes.co.kr:


> The United Nations Command (UNC) in South Korea said Friday that it will begin investigating whether North Korea's torpedoing of a South Korean frigate violated an armistice agreement or not.
> 
> The probe comes after the Ministry of National Defense requested the UNC investigate the case after North Korea denied its involvement in the sinking of the South Korean vessel near the West Sea border on March 26.
> 
> The disaster killed 46 South Korean sailors.
> 
> The UNC and the Neutral Nations Supervisory Commission (NNSC) will team up to "review the findings of the investigation and determine the scope of the armistice violation that occurred in the sinking of the Republic of Korea Ship Cheonan."
> 
> The multinational investigation team concluded Thursday that North Korea torpedoed the warship.
> 
> North Korea denied the findings, saying it was willing to send a team to the South to see if the evidence was true.
> 
> South Korea said the North officially made such an offer to the U.N. Command Military Armistice Commission as the two Koreas technically remain at war.
> 
> A government source said North Korea may be allowed to join the investigation if it promises not to take advantage of the probe and is willing to play its part sincerely.
> 
> Representatives from South Korea, Australia, *Canada*, Denmark, France, New Zealand, Turkey, Britain, the United States, Sweden and Switzerland and members of the NNSC will participate in the investigation ....



From the United Nations Command news release (attached)


> Now that the ROK-led multinational investigation has concluded, United Nations Command is convening a Special Investigations Team consisting of members from the UNC and the Neutral Nations Supervisory Commission to review the findings of the investigation and determine the scope of the armistice violation that occurred in the sinking of the Republic of Korea Ship Cheonan.
> 
> UNC contributing team members include representatives from Australia, *Canada*, Denmark, France, New Zealand, the Republic of Korea, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States. The NNSC includes members from Sweden and Switzerland.
> 
> The team will report their findings to the United Nations.


----------



## zipperhead_cop

Oh wow!  If the United Nations is on it, you're gonna see some results!  





(surely, nobody takes that seriously)


----------



## a_majoor

While we wait for the United Nations to hold meetings on the agendas of the upcoming meetings, more serious minds might consider:

http://strategypage.com/on_point/20100511232546.aspx



> *Winning the Korean Face War*
> 
> by Austin Bay
> May 11, 2010
> In late March, an explosion in disputed waters off the Korean Peninsula sank the South Korean corvette Cheonan, killing 46 sailors. This week, investigators concluded a weapon, possibly a German-made torpedo, destroyed the ship.
> 
> North Korea deploys mini-subs and commando submersibles that deliver torpedoes with extraordinary stealth, so Pyonyang's strange Stalinist regime has the capability to conduct surreptitious naval attacks and then plausibly deny responsibility.
> 
> North Korea has the weapons, and it has intent -- decades of demonstrated intent. For 60 years, North Korea has repeatedly attacked South Korea. The Korean War began 60 years ago this June, and it isn't over, not officially -- an armistice holds combat in tenuous abeyance, not a peace treaty. One wonders if the naval attack isn't an anniversary celebration of a disguised, macabre sort, appealing to the malign psyche of North Korea's dictator, Kim Jong-Il.
> 
> The Korean War started with an explosive communist attack that raised the specter of global nuclear war. Now it appears it may end with a communist implosion, one that risks igniting a brief but terrible nuclear conflict in East Asia, should North Korea hit Seoul or Tokyo with a nuke.
> 
> Seoul's suburbs lie within range of North Korean artillery. A North Korean fighter-bomber, heading south from communist airspace, will reach Seoul in minutes. South Korea's Samsung Corp. is one of the largest private employers in the Texas county in which I live. This means Pyongyang doesn't need nukes to attack Texas' economy, a fact of life among the 21st century's economically, politically and technologically linked.
> 
> Global linkage and Pyongyang's nuclear quest explain the caution stirring this strange twilight of an old war -- caution expressed in Washington, caution followed to the point of kowtow by a South Korean government that hoped the Cheonan suffered a tragic accident.
> 
> The South Korean people, however, are outraged, as their government -- if only for its own political survival -- says it is preparing a response.
> 
> South Korea must demand reparations for the Cheonan, but if the North fails to comply, what then? Talk does not faze mass-murdering dictators. When Adolf Hitler militarized the Rhineland, the Western allies flinched -- and the Nazis became more audacious. The Rhineland was a strategic probe of allied will. Sinking the Cheonan is a probe of the U.S.-South Korean relationship and ultimately a probe of U.S. President Barack Obama's commitment to mutual defense. His diplomatic track record, and his personality, incline toward appeasement.
> 
> South Korea is mulling tough economic and political sanctions. North Korean elites, however, shield themselves from the consequences of sanctions, and any truly effective sanctions regimen requires rigorous Chinese support. Securing firm support is unlikely as long as Beijing sees South Korean and U.S. leadership as too supine for military action.
> 
> Covert options include stoking factionalism within North Korea's armed forces and perhaps among Kim Jong-Il's sons. Kim favors his third son. Setting prince on prince is an ancient tool for toppling tyrant kings. South Korea must pursue these fratricidal solutions. They take time, however, and meanwhile, the nuclear clock ticks.
> 
> Destroying selected Northern naval facilities by air attack is an option, though this involves striking land targets, which Kim's propagandists would portray as escalation.
> 
> Explicit naval tit-for-tat, which exposes and exploits North Korean strategic weakness before a global audience, has more political impact. Seoul and Washington should consider seizing North Korean ships in open waters around the globe. Ships and cargoes could be held pending reparations. In Asia, Pyongyang might route its ships through Chinese and Vietnamese coastal water (paying bribes to local coast guards in the process), but eventually they will encounter the U.S. Navy. The maritime cowards will encounter cameras and appear on YouTube. The Google world will get it.
> 
> In the Rhineland fiasco, the Western allies lost face. This Korean confrontation is also about political face, and it's time Kim and his killers lost theirs.
> 
> South Korea and the U.S., its closest ally, cannot avoid forcefully responding to the Cheonan attack because it prefigures a more terrible future where a further emboldened, fully nuclear-capable North Korea acts even more brutally.



Also see: 

http://newledger.com/2010/05/overthrowing-kim-a-capitalist-manifesto-part-1/

http://newledger.com/2010/05/overthrowing-kim-a-capitalist-manifesto-part-2/


----------



## CougarKing

More tough rhetoric from the US and its allies against N.Korea. The question now is: what next?

Agence-France-Presse link



> *US, S.Korea say they will make N.Korea pay for sinking *
> 
> 
> Fri May 21, 3:21 PM
> 
> 
> SEOUL (AFP) - *The United States and South Korea vowed Friday to make North Korea pay the price for torpedoing a warship in March*, as international anger grew over the attack which claimed 46 lives.
> 
> 
> 
> In Tokyo, visiting US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said it was "important to send a clear message to North Korea that provocative actions have consequences".
> 
> 
> Seoul Defence Minister Kim Tae-Young, a day after investigators reported overwhelming evidence that a North Korean submarine sank the South Korean corvette, said: "North Korea surpassed the limits and for such an act we will make it pay."
> 
> 
> *At the start of an Asian tour that later Friday took her to Shanghai, ahead of planned stops in Beijing and Seoul, Clinton said she and Japan's Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada agreed the North must end its belligerence towards neighbours.
> 
> 
> "We cannot allow this attack to go unanswered by the international community," she said, adding she looks forward to "intensive consultations in China".*
> 
> The attack on the Cheonan near the disputed border with the North on March 26 sparked outrage and grief in South Korea, but Seoul has apparently ruled out any military counterstrike for fear of triggering full-scale war.
> 
> (...)


----------



## midget-boyd91

http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/asiapcf/05/23/skorea.ship/index.html?hpt=T2

From CNN. Highlights are my own.



> Seoul, South Korea (CNN) -- South Korean President Lee Myung-bak announced Monday his country is suspending trade with North Korea, closing its waters to the North's ships and adopting a newly aggressive military posture after the sinking of a South Korean warship.
> 
> *"We have always tolerated North Korea's brutality, time and again," Lee said. "We did so because we have always had a genuine longing for peace on the Korean Peninsula. But now things are different."*
> 
> "North Korea will pay a price corresponding to its provocative acts," he said, according to an English translation of the speech provided by Lee's office. "I will continue to take stern measures to hold the North accountable."
> 
> South Korean military officials on Thursday announced the results of an official investigation into the sinking of the ship, the Cheonan, which concluded that North Korea fired a torpedo that cut the vessel in half.
> 
> North Korea has denied that it sunk the warship, which went down on March 26, killing 46 sailors.
> 
> In the nationally televised speech Monday morning, *Lee said his country was adopting a posture of "proactive deterrence" toward the North, announcing that "combat capabilities will be reinforced drastically"* and that he will focus on improving national security readiness and military discipline.
> 
> "If our territorial waters, airspace or territory are violated, we will immediately exercise our right of self-defense," Lee said.



Sounds to me like the South is taking a more 'offensive defensive' stance with the DPRK.  
  
Oddball


----------



## CougarKing

South Korea's strongest response so far was to freeze trade with North Korea.

BBC link




> *South Korea has suspended trade with the North and demanded an apology, after a report blamed Pyongyang for sinking a Southern warship.
> 
> President Lee Myung-bak said those who carried out the attack, which killed 46 sailors, must be punished.*
> North Korea's main newspaper called the investigation an "intolerable, grave provocation".
> 
> The White House endorsed the South's move, and pledged its co-operation "to deter future aggression".
> 
> Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has urged China to co-operate with the US on North Korea.
> 
> Mrs Clinton told a US-China summit in Beijing that Pyongyang must be held to account for the attack on the Cheonan.
> 
> "We ask North Korea to stop its provocative behaviour... and comply with international law," she added.
> 
> China is North Korea's closest trading partner and has in the past been reluctant to take tough measures against the communist state.


----------



## jollyjacktar

CougarDaddy said:
			
		

> South Korea's strongest response so far was to freeze trade with North Korea.
> 
> BBC link



Phew!! Saying "Sorry" will make it up to the families of the 46 Sailors for sure.


----------



## SeaKingTacco

It was South Korea's ship that was sunk.  It is entirely up to them- not Canada or anyone else- to decide or to seek that which will make them happy in this whole sorry affair.

Now, who was it again that said that ASW was dead?


----------



## Ex-Dragoon

thunderchild said:
			
		

> I have been reading about the situation in Korea, I printed off the copy of the report  that was issued today (Thurs 20 may 2010 the joint civilian-military investigation group available on the BBC.COM web site) It seem like a closed case.  I only have a question to put out there, It is regarding how these torpedo components were gathered.  "the torpedo parts were recovered at the site of the explosion by a dredging ship"  How do they know it is the same torpedo if no shrapnel was in the ship's hull or the bodies of the crew?  What should be south Korea's responce?



Why would there have to be shrapnel in the hull or in the bodies. A torpedo only has to explode underneath and cause a pressure wave to break a ships keel and send it to the bottom. Much more effective then hitting the ship.


----------



## tomahawk6

Images of the torpedo that was recovered.


----------



## The Bread Guy

At least according to the North Korean news agency:


> The South Headquarters of the Pan-national Alliance for Korea's Reunification, the Solidarity for Implementing the South-North Joint Declaration, the People for Achieving Peace and Reunification, the Solidarity of Youth and Students and other civic and social organizations grouping people from all walks of life in south Korea Thursday held a joint press conference to accuse the puppet group of traitors of falsifying the truth about the sinking of its warship.
> 
> A press release, which was read out at the conference, referred to the fact that the Lee Myung Bak group made public the "results of investigation" on the same day in which it dismissed the sinking of the warship "Cheonan" as "the north's provocation by armed attack."
> 
> The authorities are presenting fragments, which they claim found out in the waters of the incident, as decisive "evidence" but they cannot be related to the sinking of the warship in the light of their possible drifting to the waters at issue from other sea area by the tide, the thick rust formed on the fragments and the fact that the said waters are used for the firing drill of the south Korean army, the release said, and went on:
> 
> The authorities made themselves busy proving the "outside attack" only, far from making public the record of the ship's track and messages exchanged before and after the case, the statements of survivors, etc., which are the core and basic data for proving the truth about the case. They went to the length of cracking down persons and organizations which raised questions as to the case.
> 
> The release said that they could never accept the "results of investigation" in view of all the aspects including its contents, process, orientation and the sponsor organization.
> 
> The release charged that the announcement of the "results of investigation" is prompted by a foolish attempt of the authorities to flee from their responsibilities by diverting elsewhere the resentment of people critical of them and, at the same time, create the situation in favor of the conservative forces at the forthcoming "elections to local self-governing bodies."
> 
> It demanded the authorities open to the public the core data understandable to the people and opt for the total reinvestigation into the case.


----------



## Marlowe

There really isn’t much South Korea and the USA (or the rest of the world) can do about any provocation from North Korea as long as China still plays neutral (which isn’t really neutral, given who is always playing dirty). The only thing that can deter North Korea is military action. 

Honestly, we’ve tried everything else.

And frankly military action is too big a gamble. Miscalculate North Korea’s response and good bye Seoul.

We also need to consider the possibility that this hasn’t been orchestrated by Kim Jong-Il. I mean, the regime actually apologized—let me repeat that, apologized—to the citizens of North Korea for the effects of the currency reform. I don’t recall too much apologizing while North Koreans were dying of starvation (which some still are . . . thanks KJI!). Does this mean the regime is aware their grip on power is slipping?

So why NKor would do this? Brinkmanship is one thing, but you’d need to be damn sure the South wouldn’t decide to retaliate to pull something this big. Back in the day, when NKor might have lasted for more than a few hours in a throw-down, they’d do crazy stuff like attacking the Blue House (home of the Korean president) or blow up airliners in the South. Things have been quiet since the 90s. And by quiet I mean mini-subs, commandos, and naval skirmishes. And now this?

Is this an attempt to get the hardliners to back Kim Jong-Un as heir apparent? Is this a hardliner plot to force NKor into a confrontation, give them a chance to remove KJI? Was it a mistake? Was it some kind of Dr. Strangelove individual statement? Is someone after their precious bodily fluids?

What is going on up there, and who is in charge?


----------



## midget-boyd91

The DPRK has announced that it has severed communications and diplomatic relations with the South and backed out of the non-aggression pact. The ROK has resumed psych-warfare using loudspeakers along the border, which the North have threatened to destroy with artillery.  
   The South has also d (re)designated the DPRK as their "main enemy."   
   
Fun times on the peninsula in the days and weeks ahead.


Oddball


----------



## tomahawk6

Nothing new here. As long as China prevents any real sanctions the North Koreans can do as they please - until they overreach.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Marlowe said:
			
		

> There really isn’t much South Korea and the USA (or the rest of the world) can do about any provocation from North Korea as long as China still plays neutral (which isn’t really neutral, given who is always playing dirty). The only thing that can deter North Korea is military action.
> 
> Honestly, we’ve tried everything else.
> 
> And frankly military action is too big a gamble. Miscalculate North Korea’s response and good bye Seoul.
> 
> We also need to consider the possibility that this hasn’t been orchestrated by Kim Jong-Il. I mean, the regime actually apologized—let me repeat that, apologized—to the citizens of North Korea for the effects of the currency reform. I don’t recall too much apologizing while North Koreans were dying of starvation (which some still are . . . thanks KJI!). Does this mean the regime is aware their grip on power is slipping?
> 
> So why NKor would do this? Brinkmanship is one thing, but you’d need to be damn sure the South wouldn’t decide to retaliate to pull something this big. Back in the day, when NKor might have lasted for more than a few hours in a throw-down, they’d do crazy stuff like attacking the Blue House (home of the Korean president) or blow up airliners in the South. Things have been quiet since the 90s. And by quiet I mean mini-subs, commandos, and naval skirmishes. And now this?
> 
> Is this an attempt to get the hardliners to back Kim Jong-Un as heir apparent? Is this a hardliner plot to force NKor into a confrontation, give them a chance to remove KJI? Was it a mistake? Was it some kind of Dr. Strangelove individual statement? Is someone after their precious bodily fluids?
> 
> What is going on up there, and who is in charge?



I suspect the investigation is about convincing China that their nutbar really did this, which to the Chinese mind would require a heavy handed response. I suspect the Chinese have or will shortly tell SOK and the US to what level of a response they are com foratable with. None of this will be public.

As for shelling Seoul I think most of the NK leadership knows that it would be the end of them. I suspect the NK without major support from China would not last more than a Month against combined SOK/US forces once they begin to move North. They could inflict a lot of damage in that time however. An attack on Seoul would not have China's consent, stirring the bee's nest that much would not serve them at all. If it happened i would expect China to close it's borders, prepare an army there and the US & China would be busy talking to each other to ensure there was no misunderstanding when the troops get close.
 I would expect a land thrust would take place up the West coast as far as Sinsang and then turn west to Pyongyang to keep the US/SOK and Chinese armies far apart. Plus it means the US can resupply by sea. Once the intial defenses are breached I doubt the NK army could stand against the US and if they did they would be bypassed and destroyed on the flanks. the US/SOK would have to guard against overextending themselves though as mass suicide attacks could be possible.


----------



## wannabe SF member

Colin P said:
			
		

> I suspect the investigation is about convincing China that their nutbar really did this, which to the Chinese mind would require a heavy handed response. I suspect the Chinese have or will shortly tell SOK and the US to what level of a response they are com foratable with. None of this will be public.
> 
> As for shelling Seoul I think most of the NK leadership knows that it would be the end of them. I suspect the NK without major support from China would not last more than a Month against combined SOK/US forces once they begin to move North. They could inflict a lot of damage in that time however. An attack on Seoul would not have China's consent, stirring the bee's nest that much would not serve them at all. If it happened i would expect China to close it's borders, prepare an army there and the US & China would be busy talking to each other to ensure there was no misunderstanding when the troops get close.
> I would expect a land thrust would take place up the West coast as far as Sinsang and then turn west to Pyongyang to keep the US/SOK and Chinese armies far apart. Plus it means the US can resupply by sea. Once the intial defenses are breached I doubt the NK army could stand against the US and if they did they would be bypassed and destroyed on the flanks. the US/SOK would have to guard against overextending themselves though as mass suicide attacks could be possible.



Just food for thought: Do you think that Canada would get to play any part in this "Korea war II" scenario?


----------



## Colin Parkinson

An excellent question, it would be interesting to see how the current opposition would support their reasons to say no, since we have death camps, starvation, nuke smuggling, etc,etc. Even if the will was there, I doubt Canada could meaningfully respond. Pretty much all of our land combat power is tied up in Afghanistan or supporting that. What I could see is Canada providing it’s newly rebuilt CF-18’s and a few ships from the West Coast. Unless they come up with a quick fix for the torpedo system, I afraid our subs won’t be able to do much. In a perfect world as NK start going nuts, Western and concerned Central/SE Asian Countries start moving troops and equipment into southern SK as a sign of solidarity and determination. I wonder if India and Turkey would be interested? I certainly don’t see another UN force like the last time. China would more than likely veto any such thing.

A question for the more strategic types out there. If you were going to attack and destroy NK how would you invade? I looked at Google and felt that a Eastern Seaboard attack would have the benefit of being as far from China as possible. Keeping near the coast means that the army could seize small ports and resupply that way. Go as far North as Sansing, turn west to move on the capital. The advantage of this is the eastern approaches are likely the least protected.
The Downside is the eastern portion is quite mountainous, coastline is somewhat shallow and likely heavily defended. The route is much longer than a Northern push up the west side. Resulting in a long logistical tail that has to be protected.
I suspect that most of the NK army would quickly become static as their logistical system could not cope with a rapidly changing situation. I doubt the average army unit has enough rations or fuel for any sustained moves, plus the inertia created by years of absolute authority would paralyze units once comms went down. I can’t independent commanders doing well in their current command structure.


----------



## Marlowe

Colin P said:
			
		

> I suspect the investigation is about convincing China that their nutbar really did this, which to the Chinese mind would require a heavy handed response. I suspect the Chinese have or will shortly tell SOK and the US to what level of a response they are com foratable with. None of this will be public.



I would argue that the investigation was for everyone. South Korea wants to dot all the 'i's and cross all the 't's so that if push does come to shove, it has its butt covered. It is looking to go to the UN with definitive proof, not vague accusations.



			
				Colin P said:
			
		

> As for shelling Seoul I think most of the NK leadership knows that it would be the end of them.


The shelling of Seoul is the first blast on the trumpet. If it happens, it is war, and the NK leadership knows very well where that road leads. If they didn't have big brother China to hide behind, they wouldn't have even pushed it this far. Shelling Seoul isn't going to be provocation, it's going to be Pearl Harbour.



			
				Colin P said:
			
		

> I suspect the NK without major support from China would not last more than a Month against combined SOK/US forces once they begin to move North.


A month? There might be fighting for a month, but that would be partisans and werewolves (in the sense of the Nazi squads, not Larry Talbot). In the late 90s, the estimate was that NKor had no more than a few days of fuel. After a few days, unless NK liberated a sizable amount of fuel, they'd be a horse and buggy army.

Now, where'd I leave those Brown Besses?


----------



## vonGarvin

Colin P said:
			
		

> A question for the more strategic types out there. If you were going to attack and destroy NK how would you invade?


You suppose that to attack and destroy NK you would have to invade.  To attack and destroy NK, me, personally, I would nuke it.  All airbursts, to minimise the effects of radiological fallout.  I would target logistical nodes as a primary set of targets.  This would minimise pers casualties, and then render the north incapable of surviving as a society for longer than say a week.  They would be unable to launch on the south, and the effect over in China would be minimal.

But this is probably why I am not leading the attack on NK.  Trust me, though, the political stink from China would be all but over in a few months.


----------



## Edward Campbell

If there is going to be an invasion of North Korea my guess is that it will come *from the North*, across the Yalu River and that the PLA will drive very quickly down the Western lowlands to Pyongyang and to the Inter-Korean Border. I would also guess that a small Chinese force will arrive, just as quickly, in Rason, in the far North East, in the China/Russia/North Korea border area, to remind the Russians that mischief making is not welcome.

China does not want a war on the Korean peninsula; it would prefer that Korea is reunified *without any US presence or interference*.


----------



## CougarKing

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> If there is going to be an invasion of North Korea my guess is that it will come *from the North*, across the Yalu River and that the PLA will drive very quickly down the Western lowlands to Pyongyang and to the Inter-Korean Border. I would also guess that a small Chinese force will arrive, just as quickly, in Rason, in the far North East, in the China/Russia/North Korea border area, to remind the Russians that mischief making is not welcome.
> 
> China does not want a war on the Korean peninsula; it would prefer that Korea is reunified *without any US presence or interference*.



It seems the North Korea are aware of the threat of invasion from their Cold War-era ally and neighbour: 

(reposted from another forum)




> *NK reportedly bulking NK/China border *
> rfa.org (in Korean section) reports NK has reinforced NK border guard units on NK/China border with heavy weapons units such as 82mm mortar/Recoilless rifles. NK also relocated truck-mounted 122 mm multiple rocket launcher (BM-21 Grad) units to NK/China border.
> 
> It's unusual this is happening as the NK border guard units on NK/China border is usually armed with rifles to stop NK people from fleeing NK.



 China and South Korea already have a huge amount of trade between each other, in spite of ideological differences (the same goes for trade between China and Taiwan); just look at all the South Korean companies doing business in China and all the S.Korean students learning Mandarin at language schools there. Therefore a unified Korea under the ROK would have tremendous economic benefits for them especially if Chinese firms get to partake in the reconstruction efforts; in spite of their past Cold-war shared interests, the China of today only maintains a nominal relationship with its former protege state and sees the DPRK as more of a liability than an ally. 

The "Shanghai clique" (which includes Pres. Hu Jintao, and Wu Bangguo as well as others the CCP's Shanghai branch that then-Pres. Jiang Zhemin brought to Beijing with him in the 1990s) which has been steering Politburo Standing Committee since the 1990s/Jiang years cares more about ensuring China's continued prosperity and thus are paranoid about any threat to economic stability in the region- whether external or internal. 

*Thus, China does not care about other communist countries; they invaded Vietnam in 1979, although that invasion force was later withdrawn. That was an example of how they act more in their own interests than for any so-called outdated "Cold-War-era commie solidarity" against democracy. * And this same thing might just happen to North Korea if they continue on this path of provocative brinksmanship with its neighbours.

Unlike the 1979 Chinese invasion of Vietnam however, which saw the PLA suffer as many as 20,000 casualties against the battle-hardened Vietnamese Army, invading North Korea may be an opportunity for the PLA to demonstrate just how far they've taken implementing the doctrine of "People's War under modern conditions" since it was first put forward during the Deng years. That is, if the reforms from that doctrine have really made the PLA capable of fighting a modern combined-arms conflict.

Another question that comes to mind is whether the North Korean Army, with its mostly aging equipment, could stand up to the refurbished PLA, even with static defences on both land borders (probably much more in depth at the DMZ than at the Yalu river) that they've had time to prepare?

------------------------------------------------------------

Plus, another update:



> Reuters link
> 
> SEOUL (Reuters) -* South Korea's navy staged anti-submarine drills on Thursday in tense waters bordering North Korea amid signs that China, under pressure from regional powers, is reviewing ties with the isolated communist state.*
> 
> 
> The naval exercise is aimed at better detecting intrusions by North Korean submarines after a team of investigators, including experts from the United States and Sweden, accused the North of firing a torpedo that sank a South Korean warship, killing 46.
> 
> 
> The drills, which also come after the South's military upgraded its alert level, are likely to further anger Pyongyang, which has already cuts most ties with Seoul after it sanctioned the hermit state for sinking the Cheonan corvette.
> 
> 
> The North has threatened to shut the last road link with the South if Seoul resumes loudspeaker propaganda broadcasts across their heavily armed border. It has warned of war if the South went ahead with sanctions announced this week.
> 
> (...)


----------



## sean m

If war does happen, hopefully it does not but if.. This could have a huge impact on the whole region of Asia even strect south- south west to mynamar (Burma). The North Koreans are the major ally of this nation, and both need each others support in numours sectors. If there is war and North Korea loses, this will hugely impact Mynamar since they will not have a major ally. I hope this would then lead to the nations of the world to force Burma to adopt a democratic system or face the consequences.


----------



## Neolithium

sean m said:
			
		

> If war does happen, hopefully it does not but if.. This could have a huge impact on the whole region of Asia even strect south- south west to mynamar (Burma). The North Koreans are the major ally of this nation, and both need each others support in numours sectors. If there is war and North Korea loses, this will hugely impact Mynamar since they will not have a major ally. I hope this would then lead to the nations of the world to force Burma to adopt a democratic system or face the consequences.



 It will not "hugely" impact the Burma - while Western Nations have banned investments, import bans and arms embargos there are many Asian nations which have plenty of wealth that continue to trade uninterrupted with them.  I can't find the article at the moment, but the biggest contributions to the Burmese economy come from China and India, North Korea has trade relations but the impact they have on their coffers could be likened to a mouse fart in a hurricane. The DPRK of course has done a lot more prick-waving than in past decades, but I'm not ready to underestimate Beijing being quick to slap their Fearless Leader upside the head so fast he wouldn't know East from West.


----------



## sean m

You're right , sorry I forgot about India. You are also right that India and China are more important allies as well. I think the west would have better luck trying to get india to stop having relations with the country. Plus losing North Korea as an ally would still have a big impact, more than you say



			
				Neolithium said:
			
		

> It will not "hugely" impact the Burma - while Western Nations have banned investments, import bans and arms embargos there are many Asian nations which have plenty of wealth that continue to trade uninterrupted with them.  I can't find the article at the moment, but the biggest contributions to the Burmese economy come from China and India, North Korea has trade relations but the impact they have on their coffers could be likened to a mouse fart in a hurricane. The DPRK of course has done a lot more prick-waving than in past decades, but I'm not ready to underestimate Beijing being quick to slap their Fearless Leader upside the head so fast he wouldn't know East from West.


----------



## 1feral1

sean m said:
			
		

> If war does happen, hopefully it does not but if.. This could have a huge impact on the whole region of Asia even strect south- south west to mynamar (Burma). The North Koreans are the major ally of this nation, and both need each others support in numours sectors. If there is war and North Korea loses, this will hugely impact Mynamar since they will not have a major ally. I hope this would then lead to the nations of the world to force Burma to adopt a democratic system or face the consequences.



Whatever you're smoking, you should patent it.

op:

OWDU


----------



## sean m

I dont smoke it, I snort it.

VERBAL WARNING

YOU LOSE SIR 

GOOD DAY

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aDEdKzAZgko&feature=related




			
				Overwatch Downunder said:
			
		

> Whatever you're smoking, you should patent it.
> 
> op:
> 
> OWDU


----------



## sean m

I am sorry I was trying to be funny, I don't think it worke. My apologese.



			
				sean m said:
			
		

> I dont smoke it, I snort it.
> 
> VERBAL WARNING
> 
> YOU LOSE SIR
> 
> GOOD DAY
> 
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aDEdKzAZgko&feature=related


----------



## 1feral1

Where does that youtube link come into play with DPRK/ROK issues? That made no sense whatsoever.

I don't think 'engrish' is your first language.

 :worms:

EDITs to add - Dude, are you giving me a verbal?? And yelling too match?

shakes head

OWDU


----------



## vonGarvin

sean m said:
			
		

> I am sorry I was trying to be funny, I don't think it worke. My apologese.


I note that you are from Montréal.  Are you francophone?  If so, your posting in your second language may be more of a hindrance that you think it may be.

(as Mentor)
Technoviking


----------



## Neolithium

Overwatch Downunder said:
			
		

> Where does that youtube link come into play with DPNK/ROK issues? That made no sense whatsoever.
> 
> I don't think 'engrish' is your first language.
> 
> :worms:



If you prefer a youtube link that relates to Kim Jong Il and the DPRK, this should make you smile! 
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V_YDXvAaWpQ


----------



## 1feral1

I thought I was gonig to get 'supermarionation' a la Team America  :nod:

Good link though.

Cheers,

OWDU


----------



## tomahawk6

The goal of the US and its allies should be to sell unification to the Chinese. A unified Korea could be good for the PRC as well as the region. Its going to happen eventually, either through war or internal meltdown neither of which would be good for the Chinese. Unification by the ROk would be extremely expensive and an internal security nightmare with the communist infrastructure.

Short of peaceful unification,the ROK and its UN allies need to be ready for war. The North has only one real wartime scenario - a massive invasion thrust that captures Seoul. Some experts think that if this scenario played out the North would then negotiate a cessation of hostilities. IMO if they embarked on this plan they would go all out to subjugate the south. If they could capture Seoul they would be hard to stop until you get to the Pusan region [the old Pusan Perimeter]. I think the ROK ground forces supported by the USAF/USN would be enough to stop an invasion - but would they have the stones to drive on Pyongyang ? Unless the North used WMD I dont see that happening.


----------



## Marlowe

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> The goal of the US and its allies should be to sell unification to the Chinese. A unified Korea could be good for the PRC as well as the region. Its going to happen eventually, either through war or internal meltdown neither of which would be good for the Chinese. Unification by the ROk would be extremely expensive and an internal security nightmare with the communist infrastructure.


In my opinion, the only way one could get China on board with reunification is for it to be under North Korea. China does not want a strong US ally right on its border. That's part of the reason why China allows NKor to get away with so much crazy stuff--NKor is a buffer state.

That and they fear--with good reason--the flood of refugees across their border a destabilized or destroyed NKor would initiate.



			
				tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> Short of peaceful unification,the ROK and its UN allies need to be ready for war. The North has only one real wartime scenario - a massive invasion thrust that captures Seoul. Some experts think that if this scenario played out the North would then negotiate a cessation of hostilities. IMO if they embarked on this plan they would go all out to subjugate the south. If they could capture Seoul they would be hard to stop until you get to the Pusan region [the old Pusan Perimeter]. I think the ROK ground forces supported by the USAF/USN would be enough to stop an invasion - but would they have the stones to drive on Pyongyang ? Unless the North used WMD I dont see that happening.


In 1950, it took a fully equipped and mobile NKor just over a month to make it to Pusan. That was with a SKor army in disarray (or actively defecting) and a US army ill-prepared. 

Now? You have a very highly trained and motivated SKor army, a massive number of reserves (every fit male is supposed to do national service and then gets a weekend of training every month), and a very prepared US army, as well as the JDF that would be MORE than willing to jump in the fight. NKor, on the other hand, now has the ill-motivated, poorly equipped force which may not even have enough fuel to drive to Pusan.

I honestly don't think JKI is totally loony. I don't think he nor any of his generals actually believe they can win a war against SKor without the full and unrestricted participation of China. And I'm pretty sure China has been clear that this ain't gonna happen.


----------



## sean m

Probably not possible but does anyone does anyone have any information on how the North Korean people view their government


----------



## Edward Campbell

As far as I can read it's public policy: China wants a unified Korea but it must, specifically, exclude the USA and Japan. I think they would happy with a 'free,' democratic and resolutely capitalist (e.g. Seoul led) Korea but they will not accept any measurable foreign (other than Chinese) presence there.


----------



## CougarKing

Marlowe said:
			
		

> In my opinion, the only way one could get China on board with reunification is for it to be under North Korea. China does not want a strong US ally right on its border. That's part of the reason why China allows NKor to get away with so much crazy stuff--NKor is a buffer state.



In spite of years of cooperation and alliance between S.Korea and the US, why must we automatically assume that a united Korea under an ROK government will automatically remain a US ally? Of course there will be the initial years of infrastructure and economic rebuilding after the reunification that will see the ROK rely on the assistance of the US and other neighbours, but why should we assume that later down the road, the ROK won't follow independent foreign policy interests not necessarily aligned with the US (or even China later on)? Does the word "Finlandization" ring a bell?

Why should a unified Korea necessarily want to keep US troops on its soil if the North Korean threat is gone and it has strong economic links with mainland China?

And is anyone not going to comment on this other post exploring the possibility of China invading North Korea?


----------



## GAP

If I remember some of my history right....Korea, the whole Korea, has always had a strong propensity for being aggressive, domineering to it's neighbours....put the whole Korea together again, it may very well go back to its' ways of old....


----------



## VIChris

Should we see a united Korea, I can't seem them becoming an aggressive force anytime soon. I can't help but think they'd be facing at least a decade of serious social work trying to integrate a brainwashed populace into South Korean ways. The North may not be as detached as that, but a lot of what I've seen and read suggests their grasp on how the rest of the world works is pretty weak.  Furthermore, as has been mentioned elsewhere in this thread, the infrastructure in NK appears to be royally hooped. Again, years of work to bring the country around before a united Korea would look at aggression. 

Just my  :2c:


----------



## dapaterson

And once he industrious Western ally successfully integrates their former communist brothers and sisters, they'll suddenly find themselves on the hook to bail out their lazy, corrupt neighbours, if recent history is any indication.


----------



## 2010newbie

sean m said:
			
		

> Probably not possible but does anyone does anyone have any information on how the North Korean people view their government



The quote below is from http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/735397/inside_north_korea_national_geographic.html

It is a review of a documentary called Inside North Korea http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p7RtFZCpyv0&feature=related (watch between 3:40 to 5:40 to see the first example of the praise). 



> In fact, every one of the over 1000 patients who had cataract surgery documented in Inside North Korea lifted their hands and gave shouting thanks and praise to a large wall print of their fearless leader after the completion of their operation.



The documentary was very good and it looks like it is posted on YouTube in multiple parts. Whether or not the people of North Korea or "Democratic People's Republic of Korea" as Kim Jong Il likes to call it, would actually praise him like this in private or it is just a show for the cameras, who knows. You do see one of the "minders" take great offense to one of the camera men when he laid down in front of a statue of Kim to take a picture. The :minder" told him he would be deported the next day for disrespecting their great General. His offense seemed genuine enough.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

My hope is that the Chinese have set up contacts with senior leadership there to know instantly what is about to happen and if things are about to go over the edge, advise their chosen few to decapitate the Kim leadership and his closest followers. Of course this will happen behind closed door and with certain troop movements to secure critical nodes. The Public would be advised that the “Dear Leader” has died of natural causes and a Month of Mourning is imposed. Meanwhile police and army units loyal to the new leadership dispose of the remnants of the old guard. The new leadership will receive public blessing from China, likely China will quietly ensure that the US,SOK and Japan are aware who the new leaders are working for. This allows the world to open it’s door to NK and start correcting the worst of the damages. At best NK moves up to a status near Burma’s in regards to living conditions and human right. It will take at least a generation to undo the worst of the Dear Leaders policies.
I also have no doubt that Kim has thought of this scenario and works hard to prevent to much Chinese influence in his senior leadership. Let us hope the senior commanders that receive orders to start a full blown war are sympathetic to the Chinese and will ignore those orders. A lightening fast Invasion by China assisted or least unopposed by NK Generals would be the best scenario for all concerned.


----------



## sean m

The most difficult situation is trying to change a peolpe's way of life when they do not want it to change. You cannot force change on people, it has to come with their support. There would need to be thorough intel on this, I doubt how easy it would be to get in there. It would be a good idea to communicate with organizations in North Korea, which support democratic and human rights principles in the country, maybe get their viewpoint on how they see things inside there. 





			
				2010newbie said:
			
		

> The quote below is from http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/735397/inside_north_korea_national_geographic.html
> 
> It is a review of a documentary called Inside North Korea http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p7RtFZCpyv0&feature=related (watch between 3:40 to 5:40 to see the first example of the praise).
> 
> The documentary was very good and it looks like it is posted on YouTube in multiple parts. Whether or not the people of North Korea or "Democratic People's Republic of Korea" as Kim Jong Il likes to call it, would actually praise him like this in private or it is just a show for the cameras, who knows. You do see one of the "minders" take great offense to one of the camera men when he laid down in front of a statue of Kim to take a picture. The :minder" told him he would be deported the next day for disrespecting their great General. His offense seemed genuine enough.


----------



## Marlowe

CougarDaddy said:
			
		

> In spite of years of cooperation and alliance between S.Korea and the US, why must we automatically assume that a united Korea under an ROK government will automatically remain a US ally?


Why would a unified Korea remain a US ally? In the long term (if we consider a time frame measured in decades rather than years) there’s no reason it would. In the short term, there are a few factors that I think would tend to support continued Korean alliance with the US.

If Korea is unified under the RoK, there will be the ingrained political legacy of the support of the USA. As much as radicals want to vilify it, the political establishment is well aware that the country survived and prospered in some part due to US support.

Second, under the RoK, the Unified Koreas (UK? how about UKor?) would be democratic. While China offers much in terms of economic growth, there will always be tension between democratic and absolutist/plutocratic regimes. There is a required disconnect between the political philosophy and ethics of a democracy vs. those of an absolutist regime like China.

Third, the other regional partner closest to RoK, Japan, will remain a strong ally of the USA into the foreseeable future. That is going to add an impetus to RoK adherence to the USA.

I’m not saying that Korea would forever be an ally of the USA, but I think diplomatic and political inertia would see to it that the alliance would remain in force for at least two or three presidential administrations.

There is also the possibility that UKor would want a USA presence—though likely greatly reduced—to attempt to avoid a repeat of the 19th century. The USA can be overbearing sometimes, but it tends towards isolationism when left to its own devices and is rarely expansionist except when threatened. Historically, this has not been the pattern Korea has seen from its neighbours.

I also believe that China can certainly be sold on the idea of an officially non-aligned UKor. China has proven to be pragmatic at times, at least as long as it sees profit in it and no threat to its national interests.


----------



## Marlowe

GAP said:
			
		

> If I remember some of my history right....Korea, the whole Korea, has always had a strong propensity for being aggressive, domineering to it's neighbours....put the whole Korea together again, it may very well go back to its' ways of old....


One would need to go back pretty darn far to find an aggressive Korea. Gochoson (Ancient Choson, as opposed to Choson/Yi Dynasty) and Goguryuh--both predating the first real unified Korean kingdom of Silla--dominated much of what is now northern China or Manchuria. Koryuh, which followed the Three Kingdoms period (of which Silla was part), was pretty strong, but was not aggressive against its neighbours. So you really need to go back to pre 500 AD for an aggressive and domineering Korea.


----------



## Marlowe

Colin P said:
			
		

> My hope is that the Chinese have set up contacts with senior leadership there to know instantly what is about to happen and if things are about to go over the edge, advise their chosen few to decapitate the Kim leadership and his closest followers.


In trying to make sense of the Cheonan sinking, one of the possibilities I posited was "regime destabilization"--an inside job by those who wanted to remove Kim Jong-il, so I'm going with your scenario as at least a possibility.



			
				Colin P said:
			
		

> I also have no doubt that Kim has thought of this scenario and works hard to prevent to much Chinese influence in his senior leadership. Let us hope the senior commanders that receive orders to start a full blown war are sympathetic to the Chinese and will ignore those orders. A lightening fast Invasion by China assisted or least unopposed by NK Generals would be the best scenario for all concerned.


I think that is a little radical for usually conservative China. Not saying it is outside the realm of possibility, but it sounds like more of an extreme example. However, supporting a coup d'etat and then being invited in by the new government to help stabilize, I can see that happening for sure. First, of course, China would secure their border with NKor, just in case of an invasion . . . of refugees!


----------



## CougarKing

China's Premier Wen Jiabao (one of China's higher ranking officials after Pres. Hu Jintao and who also sits on the Politburo's Standing Commitee) is in Seoul trying to help defuse the crisis:



> *South Korean, Chinese leaders meet amid North Korea tension*
> Updated May 28, 2010 03:39 PM
> 
> SEOUL (AP) – North Korea's neighbors ramped up efforts to take Pyongyang to the UN Security Council for sinking a South Korean warship, with South Korea's president seeking China's support during a summit Friday.
> 
> *China's backing would be key to any bid to condemn or sanction North Korea for the March 26 torpedo attack that killed 46 South Korean sailors. Beijing, a veto-wielding permanent Security Council member, so far has refrained from committing to Security Council action against Pyongyang, its neighbor and traditional ally.
> 
> South Korean President Lee Myung-bak will lay out the case against North Korea during bilateral talks with Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, a South Korean government official said, speaking on condition of anonymity in line with department policy.
> Wen and Lee were meeting at the presidential Blue House on Friday afternoon, a day before a three-way summit that will also include Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama.*
> 
> "South Korea is fully concentrating on diplomatic efforts to hold North Korea responsible," Lee's spokesman Park Sun-kyu said in a statement. He said the matter would be discussed Friday, at the weekend summit and at a security meeting in Singapore in early June.
> 
> A multinational investigation concluded last week that a North Korean submarine fired a torpedo that tore apart and sank the Cheonan in the worst attack on the South Korean military since the Korean War.
> 
> North Korea has denied responsibility for the attack, and has warned that retaliation or punishment would mean war.
> 
> Tensions have soared since Lee laid out a series of punitive measures and pledged to haul Pyongyang before the UN Security Council. The measures include slashing trade with Pyongyang, resuming anti-North Korean propaganda broadcasts across the border and launching large-scale naval exercises off the western coast. US-South Korean military drills are to follow in the coming months.
> 
> North Korea threatened Thursday to attack any South Korean ships entering its waters and scrapped an accord meant to prevent naval clashes.
> 
> (...)


----------



## 2010newbie

Here are some pics I took of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (aka North Korea) display at the 2010 World Expo. This was the first Expo that North Korea had ever participated in. Interestingly enough there were no military photos or KJI photos on display anywhere, just happy city landscapes with huge ferris wheels and fountains..... There was a gift shop that sold some KJI books with his photo, but that was it.


----------



## CougarKing

And China pledges not to defend the nation which sank the S.Korean warship.

link



> SEOGWIPO, South Korea - *The premier of China, North Korea's main ally, offered condolences Saturday to South Korea for the sinking of a warship blamed on Pyongyang after promising that Beijing — under pressure to punish the North — would not defend any country guilty of the attack.*
> 
> Premier Wen Jiabao later joined the leaders of South Korea and Japan in a three-way summit on the southern Korean island of Jeju, saying he hoped it would help achieve peace.
> 
> 
> "I hope this summit will conclude with solid results and that we will try together to ensure that it will contribute to world peace," Wen said, according to a Korean-language transcript released by the South Korean president's office.
> 
> 
> A multinational team of investigators said last week that evidence proved a North Korean torpedo struck the ship, and South Korean President Lee Myung-bak has pledged to take the North to the U.N. Security Council.
> 
> 
> North Korea has denied responsibility and warned that any retaliation or punishment would mean war.
> 
> 
> The two-day summit was expected to be overshadowed by the sinking in March of the 1,200-ton Cheonan, which killed 46 sailors in one of South Korea's worst military disasters since the 1950-53 Korean War. But the summit's first session Saturday focused on improving economic co-operation. The ship sinking was not discussed but is on Sunday's agenda, said Kazuo Kodama, a Japanese Foreign Ministry spokesman.
> 
> 
> Before the meeting, the three leaders observed a 10-second moment of silence for the Cheonan's dead crew members, a gesture proposed by Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama.
> 
> 
> *Laying out the investigation results, Lee urged the Chinese premier during bilateral talks Friday to play an "active role" in convincing North Korea to admit its wrongdoing, the presidential Blue House said. Wen told Lee that his country "will defend no one" responsible for the sinking, Lee's office said.*
> 
> (...)


----------



## CougarKing

Both Japan and South Korea pledged to stand together against North Korea:

*On a sidenote, I wonder how long it will take the JGSDF to get troops on to the Korean peninsula if full-blown hostilities resume?

Reuters link



> *South Korea, Japan united against North Korea*
> 
> Sat May 29, 11:27 AM
> 
> 
> By Jack Kim and Yoko Nishikawa
> 
> SEOGWIPO, South Korea (Reuters) - South Korea and Japan vowed on Saturday to stand united against North Korea in a showdown over a sunken ship, raising pressure on China which has been reluctant to join other countries in condemning Pyongyang.
> 
> 
> Leaders of the three big northeast Asian powers are meeting in Seogwipo, a honeymoon resort on the South Korean island of Jeju, for a summit that was meant to boost plans for greater regional cooperation and economic integration.
> 
> 
> Instead, the standoff between North and South Korea has overshadowed the summit. The two sides of the divided, heavily armed peninsula have been engaged in an escalating confrontation since Seoul concluded that North Korea was behind the sinking of a South Korean warship in late March that killed 46 sailors.
> 
> 
> *In talks over two days, South Korean President Lee Myung-bak, Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao are likely to focus on the dispute, which has opened a breach between China and its neighbors, both of whom back firm international action against Pyongyang*.
> 
> 
> At Hatoyama's suggestion, the three leaders observed a moment of silence for the dead sailors before starting their talks.
> 
> 
> "North Korea's provocative actions are unforgivable," Hatoyama was quoted by a senior Japanese government official as telling Lee ahead of the three-way summit. "Japan, along with the international community, is condemning such moves and strongly backs South Korea
> 
> (...)


----------



## CougarKing

Agence France Presse link



> WASHINGTON (AFP) - *The top US military officer said Sunday he was concerned about a possible North Korean "follow-on" to a torpedo attack that sank a South Korea warship, killing 46 sailors.
> 
> Admiral Michael Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the US goal was to "certainly not have a conflict break out."*
> 
> 
> In an interview on "Fox News Sunday," Mullen said he was concerned about North Korean leader Kim Jong-il's intentions because "he just doesn't seem to do single things."
> 
> 
> "So I'm concerned that, you know, there could be follow-on activities," he said.
> 
> 
> *Mullen said the torpedo attack on the 1,200-tonne Cheonan corvette on March 26 had made stability on the Korean peninsula "more fragile," noting that a lack of clarity about Kim's succession plans added to the uncertainty.*
> 
> International investigators reported on May 20 their conclusion that a North Korean submarine had fired a heavy torpedo to sink the warship. The North has denied involvement, and responded to the South's reprisals with threats of war.
> 
> (...)


----------



## a_majoor

Reading very murky tea leaves:

http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/north-vs-south-korea-how-bad-could-a-war-get/?print=1



> *North vs. South Korea: How Bad Could a War Get?*
> 
> Posted By Stephen Green On May 27, 2010 @ 11:25 am In Asia, China, Column 2, Koreas, Politics, US News, World News | 130 Comments
> 
> “As we enter the summer of 2010,” writes Austin Bay [1], “the risk of all-out war on the Korean peninsula is quite high, and possibly the highest it has been since the armistice was signed in 1953.”
> 
> The good news: It’s unlikely that North Korea has enough gasoline to fight for more than a few days.
> 
> The bad news: they could really mess up the South in less time than that.
> 
> The worse news: nobody knows what would happen after the inevitable North Korean collapse, but everybody knows that nobody could afford it.
> 
> The downright scary news: even a wildly unspectacular North Korean invasion would serve as a test of our CINC’s mettle — a test we can’t be certain he’d pass.
> 
> Let’s go through these points one at a time.
> 
> The Good News
> 
> An army, Napoleon said, travels on its stomach. But a modern army travels on POL: petroleum, oil, lubricants. It’s doubtful Pyongyang has enough POL to grease their tanks much further south than midtown Seoul. Also, an army needs lots of ammo and tons of spares. How many new tank tracks do you think the North has been able to beg, borrow, buy, or steal in the last 20 years? Answer: not many. And ammo needs to be replaced every couple of decades — even bullets have a shelf life. The situation for aircraft is even more critical, so it’s a good guess that the North’s air force is in even worse shape than the army. The DPRK navy can still pack some punch, as we learned last month, but sneak attacks don’t guarantee victory — just ask Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto.
> 
> Another bit of good news is that China is giving North Korea some small diplomatic cover over the sinking of the Cheonan. That might not seem like a good thing at first blush, but as long as China maintains influence over the DPRK, the odds of war are reduced.
> 
> The Bad News
> 
> North Korea has special forces up the Pyongyang. This tiny, starving, impoverished nation has tens of thousands of special forces — and they have a reputation for being tough, skilled, and deadly. They’re also expected to swarm the South’s airports and seaports and do a pretty savage job of knocking them out of service. They also might have a pretty easy time of blending into the civilian population (or even disguise themselves as ROK soldiers) and continuing to wreak havoc until found and killed, one by one.
> 
> Another bit you should know. Seoul is in range of thousands of DPRK artillery tubes and missiles — many of which are in hard-to-bomb mountain hideaways. It would take hundreds of aircraft sorties, and an untold amount of counter-battery fire, before Seoul would be safe again — and the damage could take years to repair. An unprovoked attack at pre-dawn could serve up death and destruction unseen in any major city since World War II.
> 
> And I’m not even factoring in the possibility of the North kicking off the festivities with a nuke, because I like to sleep at night.
> 
> The Worse News
> 
> Yes, there’s worse news. Now, I’ve written about a North Korean collapse pretty extensively [2], and going back seven years. If you don’t want to go through the archives, just know this: it would be the biggest humanitarian crisis since The Flood, only with loose nuclear materials.
> 
> The Downright Scary News
> 
> So, yes, North Korea could seriously mess up the South, after which the North would cease to exist as an independent nation. And I believe that China would move to intervene in the DPRK long before ROK or U.S. troops (technically, UN troops) could get through the DMZ. Then what’s so downright scary?
> 
> It’s almost certain that the South could handle the North without much in the way of American help — and a Chinese coup de grace would certainly bring hostilities to a quick end. (Let’s assume that China would find it much more beneficial this time around to stop a Korean War than to enlist in one.) But: if President Obama did anything less than to order a full and immediate reinforcement of South Korea — on land, sea, and air — our other enemies and rivals would read much into such inaction. They might read too much into it, but they would read it just the same.
> 
> More importantly — most especially — is the message our allies would receive: that America is no longer a reliable ally.
> 
> Turkey has already de facto left NATO, in favor of rising Persian power. Obama has personally handed Israel its hat and coat, and shoved it towards the door. Britain has been insulted, India snubbed, and the French ignored. It wouldn’t take much more to see what remains of our alliances blown apart. In fact, it wouldn’t take anything more than the slightest wobble in dealing with a Second Korean War.
> 
> And as this administration continues to do little or nothing as “the risk of all-out war” reaches historical highs, the signal being sent is most un-American.
> 
> “Tread on Me.”
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
> 
> Article printed from Pajamas Media: http://pajamasmedia.com
> 
> URL to article: http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/north-vs-south-korea-how-bad-could-a-war-get/
> 
> URLs in this post:
> 
> [1] writes Austin Bay: http://www.strategypage.com/on_point/20100525205853.aspx
> 
> [2] North Korean collapse pretty extensively: http://pajamasmedia.com/vodkapundit/2010/05/13/its-deja-vu-all-over-again-all-over-again/


----------



## Edward Campbell

The "Downright Scary News," above, is the most likely outcome: _"China would move to intervene in the DPRK long before ROK or U.S. troops (technically, UN troops) could get through the DMZ ...  a Chinese coup de grace would certainly bring hostilities to a quick end ... But: if President Obama did anything less than to order a full and immediate reinforcement of South Korea — on land, sea, and air — our other enemies and rivals would read much into such inaction. They might read too much into it, but they would read it just the same ...  the message our allies would receive: that America is no longer a reliable ally ... Turkey has already de facto left NATO, in favor of rising Persian power. Obama has personally handed Israel its hat and coat, and shoved it towards the door. Britain has been insulted, India snubbed, and the French ignored. It wouldn’t take much more to see what remains of our alliances blown apart. In fact, it wouldn’t take anything more than the slightest wobble in dealing with a Second Korean War."_

Obama doesn't have enough forces to order a _"a full and immediate reinforcement of South Korea"_ and it is not clear, to me anyway, that, faced with a Chinese _coup de main_, South Korea would even accept, much less seek American reinforcement.

If the Americans cannot *prevent* another Korean War then they will, most likely, find themselves expelled from the Asian Mainland.


----------



## tomahawk6

Technically a state of war still exits on the Korean peninsula. Only unification will end the war either with a communist takeover or an economic collapse in the north,of the type faced by Germany. Once the ROK unified with the North there wouldnt be a need for a UN or US military presence - something the PRC could live with. The US could still support the ROK from its bases in Japan if necessary. The PRC would be able to focus its military on its border with Russia.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Everyone claims that if the North collapses, havoc will ensure. You mean like mass starvation, shortages of essential goods, lack of jobs? Maybe I am missing something, but that sounds like present day NK already. I don’t see a lot of starving NK making much of a march considering their current caloric intake.
If the collapses is internal and civil war starts within NK, all sides involved would be trying convince China that they will be the best leaders for the country. Once China picks a horse in the race, the fighting will end as the losing side will not have the fuel, food and ability to fight the other forces being freshly supplied by China. I would then foresee a quick and nasty culling of old guard and people that jumped into the wrong bandwagons. Life for the average NK would still suck, but I suspect that China would then use it’s influence to force the new government to improve things so they won’t have a mass of refuges coming over the border. From there I would expect gradual improvements as many governments would give aid in hopes of getting the new government up and running to improve life for the people.


----------



## TCBF

- Fastest way for North Korea to cripple South Korea would be for North Korea to surrender: 

 " Good morning, comrades - we surrender.  It is 0800 hours.  We will be hungry at lunch.  Bring food for 24,000,000 people.  See ya !"

- North Korea does not have to nuke another country - it only needs to nuke itself.  One warhead detonated near the DMZ when the prevailing winter winds are from the north or north west: " Hi! We are going to have a test.  Surface or shallow sub-surface burst. We apologize for the inconvenience."

- Then what?  If nothing, a week later: "Hi! We are going to have another test..."


----------



## Marlowe

Colin P said:
			
		

> Everyone claims that if the North collapses, havoc will ensure. You mean like mass starvation, shortages of essential goods, lack of jobs? Maybe I am missing something, but that sounds like present day NK already. I don’t see a lot of starving NK making much of a march considering their current caloric intake.



SKor fears the collapse for financial reasons. As I recall, after studying German reunification, and considering East Germany was fairly affluent as Warsaw Pact countries went, SKor decided maybe reunification could wait. Like until NKor at least had a functioning economy.

As for China, you totally answered that yourself: 





			
				Colin P said:
			
		

> . . .but I suspect that China would then use it’s influence to force the new government to improve things so they won’t have a mass of refuges coming over the border.


----------



## Marlowe

Apparently, NKor’s Supreme People’s Assembly will be meeting for the second time in two months on 7 June. This is odd because the SPA usually only meets annually. There might be a number of reasons for this. I’ve seen strengthening the succession and resolutions to legitimize military actions as possible causes for the meet.

Given what China has said, might there be something else? Is it possible that China has let it be known that NKor has gone too far this time, and that China would rather spend the money to seal up the NKor border rather than have to clean up KJI’s mess yet again? KJI might be trying to rein in elements that he had previously allowed to run rampant. Maybe they are deciding who to throw under the bus for the Cheonan. 

I wonder if China is considering backing another horse. Little Kim ain't quite the man his father had been.


----------



## TCBF

Nightmare scenario 347B: Where is Tom Clancy when you need him?

1. China launches ground assault and air strikes on DPRK, announcing to the world it only wants to secure DPRK's WMD and bring about effective regime change.  
2. Chinese special forces kill KJI and much of the top tier, as well as secure many WMD sites, but follow-on heliborne and airborne waves suffer heavy casualties.
3. DPRK recovers, isolate Chinese teams at WMD sites and begins to trade space for time as they become more organized in their withdrawl south from the frontier.
4. Chinese cannot extract or usefully re-inforce their WMD site teams. DPRK does not wipe them out, instead uses them to bait more Chinese avn assets into the areas.
5. Chinese advance south begins to stall despite having flattened all major military targets. China begins to bomb low grade targets in densely populated urban areas. One third of DPRK now in Chinese hands.
6. ROK (and the world) aghast at DPRK civ casualties from Chinese airstrikes. 
7. ROK and surviving DPRK leadership announce re-unification, order China to cease operations and withdraw to China.
8. China does not recognize the United Korean Republic (UKR) and warns ROK to stay south of the DMZ.
9. ROK launches ground forces across, over and under the DMZ in order to seize and hold as much ground as possible before directly combatting China.  
10. China launches air attacks against ROK forces north of the DMZ. ROK airforce turns many of the attacks back. 
11. China launches air and missle strikes against ROK military targets in South Korea.  Some US facilities hit, causing US casualties.
12. Second wave of PRC airstrikes south of the DMZ encounter USAF fighters and Japanese AWACS aircraft...


Having fun, yet?

 8)


----------



## vonGarvin

TCBF said:
			
		

> Nightmare scenario 347B: *Where is Tom Clancy when you need him*?
> 
> 1. China launches ground assault and air strikes on DPRK, announcing to the world it only wants to secure DPRK's WMD and bring about effective regime change.
> 2. Chinese special forces kill KJI and much of the top tier, as well as secure many WMD sites, but follow-on heliborne and airborne waves suffer heavy casualties.
> 3. DPRK recovers, isolate Chinese teams at WMD sites and begins to trade space for time as they become more organized in their withdrawl south from the frontier.
> 4. Chinese cannot extract or usefully re-inforce their WMD site teams. DPRK does not wipe them out, instead uses them to bait more Chinese avn assets into the areas.
> 5. Chinese advance south begins to stall despite having flattened all major military targets. China begins to bomb low grade targets in densely populated urban areas. One third of DPRK now in Chinese hands.
> 6. ROK (and the world) aghast at DPRK civ casualties from Chinese airstrikes.
> 7. ROK and surviving DPRK leadership announce re-unification, order China to cease operations and withdraw to China.
> 8. China does not recognize the United Korean Republic (UKR) and warns ROK to stay south of the DMZ.
> 9. ROK launches ground forces across, over and under the DMZ in order to seize and hold as much ground as possible before directly combatting China.
> 10. China launches air attacks against ROK forces north of the DMZ. ROK airforce turns many of the attacks back.
> 11. China launches air and missle strikes against ROK military targets in South Korea.  Some US facilities hit, causing US casualties.
> 12. Second wave of PRC airstrikes south of the DMZ encounter USAF fighters and Japanese AWACS aircraft...
> Having fun, yet?
> 8)


Who needs Clancy?  He's a pompous....anyway...
1. China launches nuclear assault on DPRK, announcing to the world it only wants to eliminate the DPRK as a threat to Asian economic prosperity.
2. Several dozen low yield tactical nuclear bombs hit targets all across the peninsula.  Within minutes, the DPRK no longer has a functioning government or military.
3. Wave after wave of humanitarian aid flows in, etc.  
In other words, after the nukes, all rather boring.


----------



## Edward Campbell

Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from the _Globe and Mail_, is a pretty fair article about China and North Korea; I agree with almost everything except the penultimate paragraph:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/can-china-keep-its-balance-in-east-asia/article1587071/


> Can China keep its balance in East Asia?
> *If it remains neutral on the sinking of the Cheonan, Beijing risks alienating regional partners*
> 
> Frank Ching
> 
> From Tuesday's Globe and Mail
> 
> Ever since international investigators concluded that the South Korean naval ship Cheonan, which sank in March with the loss of 46 lives, was struck by a North Korean torpedo, China has been under growing pressure to condemn its close friend and ally in the United Nations Security Council.
> 
> The report was issued May 20, just days before top American officials arrived in Beijing for high-level strategic and economic talks. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton called on China to take part in joint action to deal with the latest North Korean challenge.
> 
> This past weekend, Premier Wen Jiabao was in South Korea to take part in a summit meeting involving China, Japan and South Korea. There, he came under pressure to endorse the findings of the international investigators.
> 
> The Premier said China had not yet made up its mind on the issue and would make a judgment on the evidence in an “objective and fair manner.” He promised that Beijing would not protect the guilty party.
> 
> The summit meeting, the third of its kind, is part of a process to accelerate the regional integration of northeast Asia. The new Japanese government of Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama, in particular, has emphasized the need for the creation of an East Asian Community.
> 
> The Cheonan incident will cause South Korea and Japan to reassess China’s reliability as a political and economic partner in view of Beijing’s closeness to Pyongyang.
> 
> It is putting the international spotlight on Beijing, emphasizing the closeness of its relationship with Pyongyang. North Korean leader Kim Jong-il paid a five-day visit to China in May and was fêted by President Hu Jintao.
> 
> The Cheonan incident is also underlining the importance of the U.S. military alliance to both South Korea and Japan, both of which have talked in recent years about the need for more equality in the alliance.
> 
> Increasingly, voices have been raised calling for greater “balance” in relations. Thus, even though the United States is an ally, some Japanese politicians argue that Tokyo-Washington-Beijing relations “should be equally balanced like an equilateral triangle.”
> 
> Even in Taiwan, which relies on the United States to guarantee its security, there are voices calling for the balancing of relations with China and the United States.
> 
> It is probably no accident that the Obama administration’s just-released document, the National Security Strategy of the United States, says of the alliances with Japan and South Korea: “We are modernizing our security relationships with both countries to face evolving 21st century global security challenges and to reflect the principle of equal partnership with the United States.”
> 
> Mr. Hatoyama took office in Japan after his party, the Democratic Party of Japan, promised to shift the government’s focus from America to Asia. The DPJ election platform called for re-examining Japan’s ties with the United States.
> 
> Since the Hatoyama administration came to power last year, it has held four summit meetings with China and five meetings of their respective foreign ministers. “Japan has conducted such extensive bilateral talks with China alone,” Kazuo Kodama, a foreign ministry spokesman, has pointed out. “No other countries have enjoyed such extensive meetings on the political level.”
> 
> It is not clear how China is going to reach a determination regarding whether North Korea was responsible for the torpedo attack on the Cheonan.
> 
> Russia has said that it would not support Security Council action unless it had “100-per-cent proof of North Korea’s role.” Russian experts have accepted an invitation to go to South Korea and are reportedly sifting through the evidence.
> 
> China, too, has been invited to send experts to assess the evidence gathered by South Korea, which includes a torpedo propeller allegedly with North Korean markings. So far, it is not clear whether China has accepted the invitation.
> 
> Clearly, China, too is trying to “balance” its relations with North and South Korea. On the face of it, the decision for Beijing should be simple. After all, China’s trade with South Korea is expected to be close to $200-billion this year, about 70 times greater than its trade with North Korea.
> 
> And yet, China evidently continues to value its ties with North Korea, which is also under Communist Party rule. Part of this is historical. After all, the two countries were allies against the United States and South Korea during the Korean War.
> 
> But China should realize that if it tries to remain neutral on the sinking of the Cheonan, South Korea and Japan will both be asking questions about China’s reliability as a partner.
> 
> _Frank Ching is author of_ China: The Truth About Its Human Rights Record.




I think China’s reaction is tailored by a number of considerations, I’m not sure which is more important:

•	China wishes, actually needs to maintain its policy of strict respect for sovereignty, including the sovereignty of North Korea, because it insists that the whole world respects its absolute sovereignty and that no one interfere, in any way, with China’s “internal affairs.” What's sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander, etc;

•	The _status quo_, a certain amount of tension between the two Koreas, is better than reunification under American leadership;

•	While trade relationships with South Korea are very important they are just part of a larger, longer, Chinese perspective on East Asia. A reunified Korea is part of that _visions_ – so long as it, the “new Korea” excludes America and is beholden to China;

•	A stable “peace,” even an artificial peace such as now exists in Korea, is always better than a crisis – even though crises, traditionally, produce opportunities;

•	In an almost Elizabethan way, the Chinese make indecision a key element of their policy making. The leadership is archly _conservative_, cautious to a fault. Decision making is, generally, by consensus and decisions can take a _looooong_ time to materialize.


----------



## Marlowe

So, China is totally playing the hypocrite condemning Israel regarding the Gaza Flotilla with little to no evidence of what actually transpired.

Still on the fence about the Cheonan though.

Seriously, first the Kim Jong-Il visit, now this--are they trying to look like total dicks? If so, mission accomplished.


----------



## Edward Campbell

Hypocrisy is not new to international politics and the Chinese certainly do not have a monopoly on it.

The Chinese may have fallen into a worse trap: smugness which can lead to hubris.

The Chinese are, I think, pleasantly surprised to find themselves in the catbird seat; everything seems to be going their way. The West is divided, the US' leadership is not unchallenged, the US, itself, appears to lurch from crisis to crisis and mistake to mistake, Europe is trembling on the brink of disaster. It is easy to be smug; it is simple to take advantage of yet another crisis to make China "look good" at America's expense. Obama, unlike Hu, is actually being statesmanlike: he's asking for some time to investigate and consider before he jumps on Israel; but jumping on Israel is too easy and too popular so the Chinese have done it. It is also cheap, given that China/Israel trade is only around $5 Billion/year and is unlikely to slow because of all this.

It is wrong, for the Chinese, to misjudge or underestimate America or to overestimate China's rise.

China *is rising*, without question, but it is dangerous to believe that China can duplicate the 125 "golden years" of US history (1865 to 1990) in 50 or even 75 years without some major hiccoughs. China does not have America's manifold geographic (space and resources) advantage and America never had China's socio-economic disadvantages. China is rising but pulling equal to and even overtaking America as the world's preeminent "power" is not a foregone conclusion.


----------



## dapaterson

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> I think *DND*’s reaction is tailored by a number of considerations, I’m not sure which is more important:
> •	A stable “peace,” even an artificial peace such as now exists in Korea, is always better than a crisis – even though crises, traditionally, produce opportunities;
> 
> •	In an almost Elizabethan way, _*DND*_ make indecision a key element of their policy making. The leadership is archly _conservative_, cautious to a fault. Decision making is, generally, by consensus and decisions can take a _looooong_ time to materialize.



Two minor changes can also describe the situation here at home...


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Technoviking said:
			
		

> Who needs Clancy?  He's a pompous....anyway...
> 1. China launches nuclear assault on DPRK, announcing to the world it only wants to eliminate the DPRK as a threat to Asian economic prosperity.
> 2. Several dozen low yield tactical nuclear bombs hit targets all across the peninsula.  Within minutes, the DPRK no longer has a functioning government or military.
> 3. Wave after wave of humanitarian aid flows in, etc.
> In other words, after the nukes, all rather boring.



The worlds reaction will be muted,  either through economic fear or invasion fear. Depending on location. However such an action would open up Panadora box in regards to the use of Tactical nukes. 

In TCBF scenario one option missed, ROK comes to the aid of the Chineses forces trapped. The NK army caught between 2 forces with total air superiority (assuming NK used up most of it's aircraft against the Chinese.) the NK folds and collapses. China secure and destroys (or takes) the WMD's out of the country. China and ROK agree on a NK based leadership to run the country. Chinese troops withdraw. China wins for being a proactive world power preventing the use of WMD's (Can we say Iraq), A NK state still exist with a leadership in thrall. ROK wins as it prevents the use of nukes on Korean soil destroys the current regime and gets the Chinese to leave Korean soil, plus ROK does not have to absorb the collapsed state.


----------



## CougarKing

Three Chinese smugglers killed at Northern border by North Korean border guards.

Reuters link



> *Beijing says North Korea killed three Chinese at border *
> 
> 2 hours, 36 minutes ago
> 
> 
> BEIJING (Reuters) - North Korean border guards shot and killed three Chinese suspected smugglers and wounded a fourth last week, prompting a complaint from Pyongyang's only major ally, China's Foreign Ministry said on Tuesday.
> 
> China formally complained to Pyongyang, and the incident was being investigated, ministry spokesman Qin Gang told a regular news briefing in the Chinese capital.
> 
> 
> "In the early morning on June 4, North Korea's border defense troops fired at some citizens of Dandong in Liaoning province, because they were suspected of illegally crossing the border to trade," Qin said.
> 
> 
> "Three people were killed, and one was wounded."
> 
> 
> Pyongyang has a heavily militarized southern border which sees occasional exchanges of fire, and a South Korean tourist was shot dead by a North Korean soldier in 2008 while at a resort in the North.
> 
> 
> *But attacks on Chinese citizens are rare. The Sino-Korean border, in China's northeast, is quiet and fairly porous, with a steady flow of refugees and traders coming over to escape food shortages or profit from them*.
> 
> 
> (...)


----------



## Marlowe

And Russia is weighing in on the Cheonan investigation, basically giving South Korea the middle finger. A real gem from the article:



> But while they admitted that there was no possibility that the external blast was caused by anything other than a torpedo, the Russians never said that a torpedo sunk the ship.



Wow. And I thought the Chinese were bad. The only way the Russians could make this conclusion even more insulting is if they said: "there was no possibility that the external blast was caused by anything other than a North Korean torpedo, but we are not saying the Cheonan was sunk by a North Korean torpedo."


----------



## Edward Campbell

Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from the _Globe and Mail_, is more on the China vs. North Korea topic:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/china-cools-toward-north-korea-as-trade-with-south-heats-up/article1597451/


> China cools toward North Korea as trade with South heats up
> *Pyongyang’s volatile behaviour making Beijing increasingly uncomfortable*
> 
> Mark MacKinnon
> 
> The dangerous crisis over the sinking of a South Korean warship poses an uncomfortable dilemma for China, which finds itself caught halfway between a historic alliance with North Korea and its increasingly important trading relationship with Seoul. And that was before North Korea’s always unpredictable military shot and killed three Chinese citizens.
> 
> The case, and Beijing’s rare expression of disapproval toward its long-time client, will heighten a growing debate in China over how to handle the country’s volatile neighbour. Some were already questioning how much longer to continue supporting the regime of Kim Jong-il, given China’s increasing economic ties with Seoul and Beijing’s desire to broadcast “soft power” throughout East Asia.
> 
> The reflexive position – to provide backing and cover for Pyongyang, no matter what its actions – had already been discarded as inappropriate before the latest incident, which saw a North Korean border guard open fire on a group of suspected smugglers.
> 
> The shooting occurred Friday, but only came to light Tuesday.
> 
> The Chinese citizens “were shot by a DPRK border guard on suspicion of crossing the border for trade activities, leaving three dead and one injured,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang said, using the acronym for North Korea’s formal name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. “China attaches great importance to that and has immediately raised a solemn representation with the DPRK. Now the case is under investigation.”
> 
> China has grown increasingly uncomfortable with its role as North Korea’s last major ally, particularly since Mr. Kim’s Stalinist regime defied it by carrying out nuclear tests in 2006 and 2009. China accounts for almost 80 per cent of Pyongyang’s foreign income (excluding shipments between the two Koreas, which are currently suspended), and it’s not clear how long the regime could survive without Beijing’s support.
> 
> Ties with the North have cooled as economic links with Seoul have strengthened. Bilateral trade between China and South Korea hit $156.2-billion (U.S.) last year, versus only $2.7-billion in commerce between China and the North. China, Japan and South Korea are also in the midst of a push to put historic animosities aside and sign a three-way free-trade agreement.
> 
> “China is about to make the choice: whether we should put the ideological interests ahead of the state’s interests, or vice versa. I think this is a major challenge facing Chinese decision makers,” said Zhang Liangui, a North Korea expert at the influential Central Party School of China’s ruling Communist Party.
> 
> Unlike 60 years ago, when China fought alongside the North against a U.S.-led United Nations force, Mr. Zhang said that China would now prefer to remain “relatively balanced” and to let the two Koreas resolve the matter themselves. “The situation has already totally changed and is different from the past. … Even if there are some military clashes, I don’t think China will get a foot into it.”
> 
> China’s leadership has long viewed North Korea as a strategic buffer against American influence in the region, and there are factions in Beijing that still worry about what the collapse of North Korea would mean. One nightmare scenario might see China flooded with refugees, and facing a newly united Korea on its border, perhaps with U.S. soldiers still based on its soil.
> 
> Others now argue that China’s broader goals in East Asia risk being undermined if Beijing continues to back the unpredictable Mr. Kim. After a meeting in Seoul with South Korean President Lee Myung-bak, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao promised that his country would “defend no one” who was responsible for sinking the corvette Cheonan on March 26, an attack that left 46 South Korean sailors dead.
> 
> However, China has yet to accept the results of an international investigation that examined the wreckage and found the warship had been sunk by a North Korean torpedo. Mr. Kim was received in Beijing with full honours just days before the results of the Cheonan investigation were made public.
> 
> “I think China is not willing to make a choice between its traditional friendship [with North Korea] and its trading relationship with its neighbours. The international community wants China to make a judgment, but China won’t do so unless she has no other options,” said Jin Linbo, director of the Asia-Pacific division of the China Institute for International Studies.
> 
> It is becoming increasingly difficult for Beijing to walk that tightrope. Seoul last week asked the UN Security Council to take action against North Korea in response to the Cheonan sinking. Any action would have to be approved, at least tacitly, by China, which has veto power as one of five permanent members of the Security Council.
> 
> South Korea’s vice-foreign minister Chun Yung-woo was dispatched to Beijing on Thursday in an effort to persuade China’s leaders not to use their veto. South Korea has portrayed the Cheonan sinking as part of a pattern of attacks, rather than a one-off incident, linking it with the 1987 bombing of a Korean Airlines jet, which killed 115 people, and a 1983 bomb attack on South Korean cabinet members visiting Burma that killed 17.
> 
> The crisis over the Cheonan has unfolded in parallel with an even murkier series of events inside North Korea that seem tied to the question of who will succeed Mr. Kim, who is 69 years old and in failing health.
> 
> On Monday, North Korea’s long-serving premier, Kim Yong-il, was shuffled out of his post and Kim Jong-il’s brother-in-law was promoted to a powerful military post. Both moves were seen as further clearing the way for Mr. Kim’s youngest son, Kim Jong-un, to eventually succeed him.



Here are the factors Mark MacKinnon presents, in his order, with my order of importance shown before them.:

5. Very recent shooting of three Chinese citizens by DPRK border guards;

3. DPRK nuclear tests;

2. Increasingly important China<>South Korea economic ties;

1. Kim Jong-il is increasingly erratic;

4. Sinking of the _Cheonan_

6. Possible _coup_ in the mill – replacing Kim Jong-il with Kim Jong-un.

More important than all of them is what I think is China’s long term goal: a *peacefully* reunified Korea, without any US military presence, which recognizes China as the regional (East Asian) hegemon.


----------



## 57Chevy

N. Korea tells UN it did not sink ship

Says investigation results part of U.S. conspiracy

By JACK KIM, Reuters June 10, 2010


Read more: http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Korea+tells+sink+ship/3134355/story.html#ixzz0qSj4xMeI

North Korea has sent a letter to the UN Security Council rejecting accusations from South Korea that it was behind the sinking of one of its neighbour's navy ships, saying it was the victim of a U.S.-led conspiracy.

The letter, addressed to the UN Security Council president from the North's permanent representative to the body, followed the filing of a complaint by the South last week demanding action by the international community to deter further aggression.

A team of international investigators led by South Korea's military said in May that a North Korean submarine torpedoed the corvette Cheonan on March 26, snapping the vessel in half and killing 46 sailors.

North Korea, through its official media, has already rejected the charge, saying it was a ploy by the South's President Lee Myung-bak aimed at political gains for his conservative government.

"With time it is becoming clearer through military and scientific analysis that the 'investigation findings' by the U.S. and the South, which had been from their announcement subject to doubts and criticism, is nothing more than a conspiracy aimed at achieving U.S. political and military goals," said the letter, signed by the North's permanent representative to the UN Sin Son-ho and carried by the official news agency.

"If the Security Council goes ahead with discussions on the 'investigation findings' ... no one will be able to guarantee there won't be grave consequences to peace and stability on the Korean peninsula."

North Korea has driven tensions to new heights in recent weeks by threatening war if Seoul imposes sanctions. The mounting antagonism between the two Koreas has unnerved investors worried about armed conflict breaking out in the region.

Many analysts say neither side is ready to go to war, but see the possibility of skirmishes in a disputed sea border off the west coast or along their heavily armed border.

Despite the tense confrontation, the South said yesterday it had approved the shipments of baby formula for North Korean infants as a rare exception to the ban on trade, travel and movement of goods across their border.

The United States, the South's biggest ally, said Seoul may not seek a full Security Council resolution because of rising tensions. Seoul said it would hold discussions with its allies to ensure action was taken.

© Copyright (c) The Montreal Gazette


----------



## dapaterson

Interesting article on the hermit kingdom in the NYT today, built on interviews of North Koreans in China -  some visiting, some defecting.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/10/world/asia/10koreans.html?ref=world&pagewanted=all


----------



## CougarKing

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> 6. Possible _coup_ in the mill – replacing Kim Jong-il with Kim Jong-un.
> 
> More important than all of them is what I think is China’s long term goal: a *peacefully* reunified Korea, without any US military presence, which recognizes China as the regional (East Asian) hegemon.



Kim Jong-un, the son? He probably might just become a figurehead (probably needed after all those years of indoctrinated, cult-like reverence for Kim Il Sung before his death and then his son Kim Jong Il) for any new regime that takes over. 

That is if the new regime does not get rid of Kim Jong Il's whole family in the process and another leader- probably one of the more senior generals- takes his place with the "blessing" of Beijing.

As for a unified Korea, what do you think of what was said earlier about a non-aligned, unified Korea?


----------



## karl28

In my own opinion I think it's horrible that the ship was sunk and all those sailors died .  Unfortunately the politic structure of most of South Korea  allies we will never see more than sanctions against North Korea as those allied government do not have the stomach for anything harsher .


----------



## 57Chevy

karl28 said:
			
		

> do not have the stomach for anything harsher .



A sure sign of weakness. Media coverage is the major cause of so many protests of just about
anything on the world scene. The slightest stir and half the world flips out. 
If you do this..........protest. If you do that..........protest.
A real... :worms:


----------



## karl28

57Chevy 


           I here you on that seems like every time you turn the news on there are protesters some where .


----------



## Edward Campbell

What would you suggest the West do, if they had the stomach for it?

How would the US and its allies fight and win a major land war in Asia? How long would it take? How much would it cost? How would we mobilize the millions and millions of soldiers required *IF* the Chinese decide to enter the fray?

Just asking ...


----------



## 57Chevy

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> What would you suggest the West do, if they had the stomach for it?
> 
> How would the US and its allies fight and win a major land war in Asia? How long would it take? How much would it cost? How would we mobilize the millions and millions of soldiers required *IF* the Chinese decide to enter the fray?
> 
> Just asking ...



I'm not talking about war with China.
I was stating the fact that no matter what happens on the world scene there are protests for and against any particular decision taken by governments. This is the way the world has become. 

The media input (which at times is biased) caters toward one side or the other. One must therfore
read a multitude of news articles of the given topic to get a true idea of what is really happening.
Most people don't go that far, and are somewhat manipulated into believing that what they read is the whole truth....and nothing but the truth. As they say, "BS baffles brains". End result....people
protesting things that they know very little about. Some are follower protesters, who protest for the 
simple reason of protesting. And then there are the "hate" protesters, who protest anything government. 
Personally speaking, I don't take part in protests of any kind. No matter what the issue.


----------



## CougarKing

An update about the DPRK submarine fleet:



> *Between 70 and 80 percent of North Korea's submarine fleet is stationed along the eastern coast, where four shark-class submarines disappeared recently from South Korean radars. Compared to the shallow waters of the West Sea, conditions in the East Sea are so favorable to submarines that it has been referred to as a "paradise" for them.*
> 
> North Korea has around 70 submarines -- 20 Romeo-class subs weighing 1,800 tons, 40 shark-class subs (325 tons) and 10 salmon-class subs (130 tons). A salmon-class sub is believed to be responsible for sinking the South Korean Navy corvette Cheonan.
> 
> There are four North Korean submarine bases along the east coast, including Chaho Base where the four shark-class subs that vanished are stationed, as well as Mayangdo, Toejo and Wonsan, all in South Hamgyong Province.
> 
> Chaho and Mayangdo are the main bases. Chaho is equipped with a cave to protect submarines from aerial attacks as well as a canal that can transport submarines faster to the ocean. A Google Earth image unveiled a few years ago shows eight Romeo-class and three shark-class submarines at Chaho.
> 
> The Mayangdo Base is near the site of an abortive light-water reactor project in Sinpo and is ideal for safe docking and hiding submarines. It apparently houses Romeo, shark and even whiskey-class training submarines. The base in Toejo is home to North Korea's eastern naval command and the shark-class submarine that was stranded off the coast of Gangneung in 1996 carrying 25 North Korean spies.
> 
> Using the East Sea, which makes it difficult to detect submarines, small North Korean submarines apparently infiltrated South Korean waters regularly during the 1990s. A log found aboard a yugo-class North Korean submarine captured off the coast of Sokcho in 1998 showed records of numerous infiltrations. South Korea's First Naval Command, which covers the East Sea, has dispatched destroyers, convoys and corvettes to search for the four submarines that have disappeared from radars.
> 
> link


----------



## 57Chevy

UN council 'gravely concerned' at Korea ship sinking:

       UNITED NATIONS - The UN Security Council expressed grave concern Monday over the deadly sinking of a South Korean naval ship in March that has heightened tension on the Korean peninsula.

Seoul, which has accused North Korea of torpedoing the corvette Cheonan on March 26, killing 46 sailors, brought the dispute to the Security Council this month, asking the 15-nation body to take action to deter "further provocation."

Mexican Ambassador Claude Heller, president of the council this month, read out an agreed statement to reporters after two separate informal briefings from South and North Korean delegations on the incident.

"The Security Council is gravely concerned with this incident that caused the death of 46 sailors and its impact on peace and stability on the Korean peninsula," Heller said. The careful wording did not say who was to blame for the incident.

"The Security Council makes a strong call to the parties to refrain from any act that could escalate tensions in the region and makes an appeal to preserve peace and stability in the Korean peninsula," he said. "The Security Council will continue its consultations on this incident."

(article continues)

Read more: http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/council+gravely+concerned+Korea+ship+sinking/3154021/story.html#ixzz0qvqkpUZt

              (Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act)


----------



## CougarKing

> Chosun link
> 
> 
> *North Korea asked China to provide it with the latest J-10 fighter jets and other hardware but was rejected, it emerged Wednesday.*
> 
> According to a high-ranking source in the North, North Korean leader Kim Jong-il made the request to Chinese President Hu Jintao when he visited China in early May. *But Hu apparently told Kim that China will protect and support him if attacked.*
> Observers guess this is the reason why Kim left a day earlier than scheduled.
> 
> One North Korean defector who used to be a high-ranking official said, "Kim is increasingly afraid of an attack by South Korean and U.S. forces" following the North's sinking of the South Korean Navy corvette in March. The North Korean leader therefore wanted to get his hands on the latest Chinese fighter jets to counter South Korea's F-15 and F-16 fighter planes.
> 
> "Kim wouldn't have visited China with such a large entourage if he merely wanted economic assistance," the defector said. Another North Korean defector and former soldier said Pyongyang may have bolstered its so-called asymmetric warfare capabilities by strengthening special forces "but still lags behind South Korea in terms of naval and air force capabilities and feels threatened."
> 
> There is speculation that North Korea is forced to lean on China because it does not have the money to buy expensive Sukhoi fighters from Russia.


----------



## CougarKing

> Defense News link
> 
> The leaked secrets include a military operation to be carried out in case of all-out war with North Korea, Yonhap said.
> 
> *The arrest of the general followed the June 3 detention of two people accused of handing over military secrets to North Korea, Yonhap said.
> 
> It said one of them was a former spy for South Korea who acquired military secrets through the general and handed them to a North Korean agent in China in return for an unspecified payment.*
> 
> The South periodically detains people accused of spying for its communist neighbor.
> 
> *A female North Korean spy arrested last month used sex to secure sensitive information on Seoul's subway system, prosecutors have said.
> 
> In another case, a female North Korean spy was arrested and jailed for five years in 2008.* She had admitted having sex with a South Korean army officer to secure secret information."



Also note this older thread below about another N.Korean female spy who used sex to get military secrets:

link


----------



## 57Chevy

North Korea issues no-sail warning; missile eyed: report

SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korea has issued a no-sail warning off the west coast of the Korean Peninsula in what may be preparations for a missile launch, a South Korean news report said on Friday.
Tensions between the two Koreas have grown since the South blamed the North of torpedoing one of its navy ships in March killing 46 sailors. The North denies involvement in the sinking, saying the accusation is a fabricated political ploy.

"North Korea has designated a north-west area of the (Yellow Sea) as a no-sail zone for June 19th to 27th," the JoongAng Ilbo newspaper quoted a government official as saying.

"This could be a measure aimed at launching a short range missile," the official said.

North Korea test launched a barrage of missiles last year including a long-range ballistic missile, defying calls by the South and the United Nations to halt them.

Analysts said the moves were aimed at boosting leader Kim Jong-il's political standing at home and were also military grandstanding intended to gain a better bargaining position as regional powers tried to coax Pyongyang back to nuclear negotiations

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE65O00F20100625?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FworldNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+International%29

    (Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act)


----------



## GAP

North Korea to pick new leader
By Jack Kim, REUTERS 
Article Link

 North Korea will hold a ruling Workers' Party convention in September to choose a new leadership, state media said on Saturday, as leader Kim Jong-il seeks to pave the way for his youngest son to succeed him.

Kim suffered a stroke in 2008 and his son Jong-un is widely believed to be his favoured choice as the dynastic state's next leader.

"The Political Bureau of the WPK Central Committee decides to convene early in September ... a conference of the WPK for electing its highest leading body reflecting the new requirements of the WPK," the North's official KCNA news agency reported.

The Workers' Party of Korea (WPK) is the ruling body of the reclusive state and Kim Jong-il serves as the general secretary, besides his official role as the chairman of the increasingly powerful National Defence Commission.

Analysts said the role of the Workers' Party has diminished over the past decades as the North put increasing focus on its military power, but the party's ideology dictates political legitimacy of its leadership.

Kim, 68, has also reshuffled the Defence Commission to put close aides sympathetic to dynastic succession on the panel.

At the same time, Pyongyang is under intense diplomatic pressure to concede responsibility in the sinking of a South Korean navy ship in March that killed 46 sailors and drove security tensions on the Korean peninsula to new heights.

GROOMING A NEW LEADER

Jong-un has been tipped as the most likely successor to his father, but he has little experience and is believed to be only in his 20s.

But South Korea's spy chief has been quoted as telling a closed-door session of a parliamentary committee this week that a campaign to boost his image has been ongoing behind the scenes due to concerns in Pyongyang about Kim's poor health.

Kim himself began his official role to succeed his father and state founder by taking on a Workers Party title at a convention in 1980 when he was 38.

Becoming a standing member of the Political Bureau that year was widely believed to be the first step in establishing himself as an heir to Kim Il-sung, who died suddenly in the summer of 1994. 
More on link


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## OldSolduer

Will this one be as ronry as his fajer?


----------



## spear

Just can't imagine how great would these 2 countries become if they ever reunited in peace with one armed forces.


----------



## midget-boyd91

spear said:
			
		

> Just can't imagine how great would these 2 countries become if they ever reunited in peace with one armed forces.



Seems like someone has already had that thought cross their mind...
http://article.wn.com/view/2010/06/11/Homefront_E3_2010_Trailer_Shows_Chilling_Future_War/

Oddball


----------



## karl28

Oddball 
                  Hey there interesting link is that for an upcoming movie that is coming out ?


----------



## midget-boyd91

karl28 said:
			
		

> Oddball
> Hey there interesting link is that for an upcoming movie that is coming out ?



I believe it is a videogame. Looks like a modern take of Red Dawn.


----------



## CougarKing

Well the backstory writers behind "Homefront" apparently didn't do enough research since their scenario is ludicrous.

Homefront video game trailer

No matter how charismatic the real Kim Jong Un may turn out to be when he finally assumes power, the people of South Korea will not be conned into uniting with the North and putting themselves under Pyongyang's rule in such a short time, as seen in the game trailer.

Then you have Japan summarily surrendering in 2018 and joining the "Greater Korean Republic" after 3-5 years of intimidation and threats from the Koreans? As well as the new unified/Greater Korea conquering East and Southeast Asia unchecked for a number of years before they launch their "Red Dawn" attack on North America? 

Riiiiiiiight.  :


----------



## midget-boyd91

CougarDaddy said:
			
		

> Well the backstory writers behind "Homefront" apparently didn't do enough research since their scenario is ludicrous.
> 
> Homefront video game trailer
> 
> No matter how charismatic the real Kim Jong Un may turn out to be when he finally assumes power, the people of South Korea will not be conned into uniting with the North and putting themselves under Pyongyang's rule in such a short time, as seen in the game trailer.
> 
> Then you have Japan summarily surrendering in 2018 and joining the "Greater Korean Republic" after 3-5 years of intimidation and threats from the Koreans? As well as the new unified/Greater Korea conquering East and South Asia unchecked for a number of years before they launch their "Red Dawn" attack on North America?
> 
> Riiiiiiiight.  :



There's been a couple nights where a couple friends and I sat for hours drinking a flat of Keith's while shooting Nazi Zombies in a bombed out Japanese airstrip .... realism and videogames aren't exactly synonymous.


----------



## hold_fast

Seems like the fun-loving country isn't too happy about some G8 comments, of course. They're back to talking about nuclear war and anti-US demonstrations:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704212804575333912405879680.html?mod=googlenews_wsj



> SEOUL – North Korea on Monday raised the specter of testing another nuclear explosive in a statement that leveled more criticism at the United States.
> 
> The statement used the term "nuclear deterrent," as it did before testing nuclear explosions in October 2006 and May 2009, and went a step farther by suggesting it had a new or different approach.
> 
> "The recent disturbing development on the Korean peninsula underscores the need for the DPRK to bolster its nuclear deterrent in a newly developed way to cope with the U.S. persistent hostile policy," the statement said.
> 
> It was issued by the country's foreign ministry and transmitted by its state news agency. DPRK is the acronym for North Korea's full name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
> 
> It's unclear what development North Korea was referring to and the country's authoritarian regime has long told its people that the U.S. and South Korea are poised to invade it.
> 
> But officials in Pyongyang have sharply increased the harsh statements aimed at the U.S. and South Korea since late May, when South Korea formally accused the North of the March sinking of a South Korean warship that killed 46 sailors.
> 
> South Korea, the U.S. and Japan are pushing for the United Nations Security Council to recognize North Korea's culpability in the ship sinking.
> 
> The topic came up at the summit meeting of world economic leaders in Canada over the weekend. U.S. President Barack Obama on Sunday said the security council should produce "a crystal clear acknowledgement that North Korea engaged in belligerent behavior that is unacceptable to the international community."
> 
> He said he used "blunt" language to try to persuade Chinese President Hu Jintao, who leads North Korea's closest political ally and economic benefactor, to also recognize that North Korea sank the South's ship. China has so far refused to blame North Korea and hasn't accepted South Korea's invitation to examine the results of its investigation into the cause of the sinking.
> 
> "I think there's a difference between restraint and willful blindness to consistent problems," Mr. Obama said. "My hope is that President Hu will recognize as well that this is an example of Pyongyang going over the line."
> 
> North Korea has repeatedly denied its involvement in the sinking and demanded that its military be allowed to examine the South's evidence, which includes the apparent remnants of a North Korean torpedo.
> 
> Last Friday, on the 60th anniversary of the North's invasion of the South that started the Korean War, a speaker at an anti-U.S. rally in Pyongyang said, "If the U.S. were to isolate and stifle our nation, we would bolster nuclear deterrent for self defense."



Reproduced with the fair dealings and copyright and all that stuff.


----------



## CougarKing

Surprise, surprise.  :  :

Reuters link



> SEOUL (Reuters) - *North Korean leader Kim Jong-il's son and handpicked heir has been elected to parliament but he will at best become a figurehead under a military-led collective leadership, news reports said on Tuesday quoting a source.
> 
> Kim Jong-un was elected to the Supreme People's Assembly at the elections in March last year from district 216, South Korean media quoted a Western source familiar with the North as saying.*
> 
> 
> The election may have been kept under wraps because the North has been wary of inciting discontent by publicly promoting Kim Jong-il's son as heir during economic difficulties, analysts said.
> 
> 
> "I have been able to confirm directly from a North Korean official that Kim Jong-un has been elected from the 216 electoral district," the unnamed Western source was quoted by the Chosun Ilbo newspaper as telling reporters.
> 
> 
> The number 216 signifies the birthday of the current leader and is reserved for persons of special entitlement, making it likely "Kim Jong" who appears on the list of elected delegates is in fact the youngest son of Kim Jong-il, the source said.
> 
> 
> *The Supreme People's Assembly is the country's rubberstamp body that formally approves decisions by the leadership but key officials of the military and the ruling party are typically its elected members.*
> (...)


----------



## 57Chevy

NKorea proposes joint investigation with South Korea of deadly sinking of SKorean warship:

UNITED NATIONS (AP) — North Korea, which has vehemently denied accusations that it sank a South Korean warship, is calling for a new joint investigation by both Koreas "to verify objectively the truth of the incident."

In a letter to the Security Council dated Tuesday and obtained Wednesday by The Associated Press, North Korea's U.N. Ambassador Sin Son Ho called for "high-level military talks" between the two Koreas. He also reiterated the North's call for its own inspection team to be sent to the site of the sinking near the tense Korean sea border.

Sin urged the council to "take measures" to help realize these talks before it deals with the results of the international investigation led by South Korea which concluded that North Korea torpedoed the 1,200-ton Cheonan in March, killing 46 South Korean sailors
South Korea sent a letter to the Security Council on June 4 asking the U.N.'s most powerful body to respond to the sinking "in a manner appropriate to the gravity of North Korea's military provocation."

Since then, the council has been holding consultations on a response.

North Korea has warned that its military forces will respond if the Security Council questions or condemns the country over the sinking

(article continues)
 http://www.foxnews.com/world/2010/06/30/nkorea-proposes-joint-investigation-south-korea-deadly-sinking-skorean-warship/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+foxnews%2Fworld+%28Text+-+World%29


          (Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act)


----------



## The Bread Guy

*North Korean soldiers defect to China fuelling fears of imminent military clash*
An upsurge in the number of North Korean soldiers defecting into China fuelled fears of food shortages and an imminent military clash.
Julian Ryall, _The Daily Telegraph_ (UK), 12 Jul 10
Article link


> Previously considered to be among the regime's most important assets, the North Korean People's Army has always been well provisioned in order to ensure the troops remain loyal.
> 
> But a poor harvest and the disastrous revaluation of the North Korean currency in November of last year has worsened the nation's already dire economic straits.
> 
> Defectors have claimed that they were required to survive on noodles made of ground corn and that meat or fish were a luxury, a journalist for Japan's Asahi Shimbun reported from the Chinese  city of Shenyang.
> 
> On one stretch of the border, Chinese troops apprehended five North Korean soldiers in May alone. Prior to the sinking of the South Korean corvette Cheonan in March, allegedly by a torpedo fired from a North Korean submarine, it was rare for troops to be taken into custody on the Chinese side of the Yalu River.
> 
> The defectors have claimed that senior members of the party and the armed forces were stockpiling provisions, another indication that the regime is steeling itself for a military confrontation.
> 
> "In the past there have been cases of North Korean troops crossing the border and plundering Chinese farms for their food, which they then took back to their posts in the North," Kim Sang-hun, a human rights activist in Seoul, told The Daily Telegraph.
> 
> However, these soldiers chose to return to the North with the supplies ....


_More on link_


----------



## Rifleman62

The leadership of NK is nuts enough to nuk a region of the country (that they consider unstable) and blame it on the US.


----------



## 57Chevy

U.S., S.Korea to hold navy drills against N.Korea
 Korea 
CAMP CASEY, South Korea -- The United States and South Korea announced on Tuesday they would hold military drills next weekend to send a clear message to the North to curb its aggressive behaviour.

China, North Korea's only powerful ally, has condemned the planned drills and launched its own naval exercises off its eastern coast.

"These defensive, combined exercises are designed to send a clear message to North Korea that its aggressive behaviour must stop, and that we are committed to together enhancing our combined defensive capabilities," visiting U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said in a joint statement with his South Korean counterpart.

Gates will be joined in Seoul on Wednesday by U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in a show of support for South Korea after it accused the North of sinking one of its warships last March, killing 46 sailors.

The two will visit the heavily defended Demilitarised Zone (DMZ) border that has divided the peninsula since the 1950-53 Korean War for which there is still no formal peace treaty.

North Korea denies responsibility for the sinking and a U.N. statement earlier this month criticising the sinking, apparently under pressure from China, avoided any mention of Pyonyang.

Pyongyang has recently signalled it wants a return to talks with regional powers on its nuclear weapons programme and which it has boycotted for 1-1/2 years.

Analysts say Washington and Seoul are reluctant to head back into the nuclear talks which in the past the ostracised North has used to leverage benefits from the international community while still pressing ahead with trying to develop a nuclear arsenal.

But they may have little choice with Washington nervous about North Korea's potential to export atomic weapons, while South Korea's leaders do not want to be seen as competely turning their back on their neighbour.

article continues:
          (Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act)


----------



## CougarKing

The perfect "gift" for Kim Jong Il on the 60th anniversary of the North Korean invasion of the South: tougher sanctions.

Washington Post link



> *U.S. to strengthen sanctions against N. Korea after sinking of S. Korean ship*
> 
> 
> By Craig Whitlock and Karen DeYoung
> Thursday, July 22, 2010
> 
> SEOUL -- Searching for new ways to punish North Korea after blaming it for sinking a South Korean warship in March, the Obama administration announced Wednesday that it will strengthen existing sanctions against the North and impose new restrictions on its weapons trade and trafficking in counterfeit currency and luxury goods.
> 
> Administration officials traveling here with Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates offered few details of what seemed a hastily put-together addition to previously announced warnings and measures reflecting displeasure.* On Tuesday, the United States and South Korea said they would hold "large-scale" military exercises in an attempt to deter further hostile acts by North Korea.
> 
> Seoul and Washington have also agreed that U.S. commanders will retain operational control of their joint military forces in South Korea, in the event of a new war, until at least December 2015. Previously, the U.S. military was scheduled to hand over operational command in 2012.
> 
> Officials from both countries said they had been considering the delay before the March 26 sinking of the Cheonan, but that recent concerns about North Korea clinched the decision.
> 
> On an unprecedented joint visit Wednesday to the Demilitarized Zone that divides the two Koreas, Clinton and Gates marked the 60th anniversary of the start of the Korean War*. Clinton said that as she gazed through binoculars across the most heavily guarded border in the world, delineated by razor wire and land mines, "it struck me that although it may be a thin line, these two places are worlds apart."
> 
> Gates was making his third trip to the DMZ; Clinton had never been there. The defense secretary said his last visit was 20 years ago, when he was director of the CIA.
> 
> "It is stunning how little has changed up there and yet how much South Korea continues to grow and prosper," Gates said, standing with Clinton in the rain outside a small U.N. building that straddles the border. "The North, by contrast, stagnates in isolation and deprivation. And, as we saw with the sinking of the Cheonan, it continues its history of unpredictable and, at times, provocative behavior."
> 
> Clinton and Gates later laid a wreath at the Korean War memorial and met with their South Korean counterparts. They were to meet Wednesday night with President Lee Myung-bak. Along with a visit to Seoul by Adm. Mike Mullen, the Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman, the meetings and events were intended to send a message of strong U.S.-South Korean relations at a time of heightened tensions in the region.
> 
> 
> (....)





Plus, the DPRK has a bad day in court:

Jerusalem Post link


> *US court fines N. Korea $300m *
> By HILARY LEILA KRIEGER
> 07/22/2010 00:31
> 
> 
> Penalty levied for role in '72 Ben-Gurion attack.
> 
> WASHINGTON – *A US judge has fined North Korea for its role in a 1972 terror attack in Israel, a landmark ruling that for the first time holds Pyongyang accountable for such activity, according to lawyers involved with the case.*On the heels of the decision, the US separately announced Wednesday that it was intensifying sanctions on Pyongyang as a response to the sinking of a South Korean warship apparently at the hands of North Korea in March.
> 
> 
> 
> The moves have the shared effect of intensifying pressure on the isolated regime of Kim Jong-Il, though few expect his government to pay the $300 million demanded by the court.
> *
> In a ruling delivered Friday, US District Court Judge Francisco Besosa in Puerto Rico found North Korea liable for its role in providing material support to the Japanese Red Army and Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, which killed 26 people and wounded more than 80 others in a shooting spree at Lod Airport, now Ben- Gurion Airport.*
> 
> Many of those killed were tourists from Puerto Rico, including Carmelo Calderon- Molina. His family, along with that of Pablo Tirado-Ayala, who was wounded in the attack, brought the suit in 2006.
> 
> “It’s very significant, since it’s the first judgment against North Korea,” said Israeli lawyer Nitsana Darshan-Leitner, who represented the families.
> 
> She said the case was motivated in part as a protest against the US’s removing North Korea from its statesponsors- of-terror list, adding that she hoped this would encourage the government to reconsider its decision, since the ruling demonstrated that North Korea “is involved with terrorism.”
> 
> Darshan-Leitner acknowledged that it was very unlikely the families would recoup the $78m. in compensatory damages and $300m. in punitive damages awarded by the court, short of a US-North Korea reconciliation in which restitution was part of the conditions for rapprochement. But she said she would seek North Korean assets in the US that could be seized and other means of obtaining some of the owed money in the meantime.
> 
> 
> (...)


----------



## 57Chevy

N. Korea says U.S. drills pose 'danger' to region
 KOREA 

HANOI — North Korea on Thursday denounced planned U.S.-South Korean military drills as a "grave" danger to the region and criticized new U.S. sanctions as "hostile".

The comments by a North Korean diplomat in Hanoi at Asia's largest security forum came a day after the United States announced expanded sanctions against the North and two days after Seoul and Washington unveiled plans for joint military exercises.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who arrived in Hanoi on Thursday, is expected to seek stronger regional support for South Korea, which with U.S. backing has sought repercussions for Pyongyang for the sinking a South Korean naval vessel.

Relations across the divided peninsula have deteriorated after Seoul accused Pyongyang of torpedoing one of its warships in March, killings 46 sailors.

The large-scale joint military exercises scheduled to begin on July 25 are the first overt military response to the attack on the South Korean warship.

"This move is not only a grave threat to peace and stability of the Korean peninsula but also to the region," North Korean official Ri Tong-il, a member of Pyongyang's delegation at the security forum, told reporters.

"It also violates the spirit of the UN Security Council president's statement," he added, referring to a UN statement which condemned the sinking of the ship Cheonan but did not cite North Korea by name.

China, North Korea's only powerful ally, has harshly criticized the military drills and launched its own naval exercises off its eastern coast.

article continues

          (Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act)


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## 57Chevy

North Korea threatens 'physical response' to U.S. military exercise:

Hanoi, Vietnam (CNN) -- North Korea vowed Friday that there would be a "physical response" in reaction to the planned joint military exercises between the United States and South Korea.

"There will be a physical response against the threat imposed by the United States militarily," North Korea spokesman Ri Tong Il told reporters outside the Association of Southeast Asian Nations meeting.

About 8,000 military personnel from the United States and South Korea are scheduled to participate in joint military exercises beginning this weekend.

article continues
 KOREA 
          (Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act)


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## zipperhead_cop

Could they be so stupid as to actually take action against an American vessel?  I bet that doesn't get ignored by the UN.


----------



## 57Chevy

U.S. calls on North Korea to avoid 'provocative words'
 KOREA 

WASHINGTON, July 24, 2010 (AFP) - The United States called on North Korea Saturday to avoid "provocative words" after Pyongyang threatened a nuclear response to new US sanctions and joint US naval exercises with South Korea.

"We are not interested in a war of words with North Korea," said State Department spokesman Philip Crowley.

"What we need from North Korea is fewer provocative words and more constructive action."

North Korea said earlier Saturday it was ready for a "retaliatory sacred war" in response to ramped-up US pressure against Pyongyang, including joint US-South Korean naval exercises.

"The army and people... will legitimately counter with their powerful nuclear deterrence the largest-ever nuclear war exercises to be staged by the US and the South Korean puppet forces," North Korea’s National Defense Commission said.

Seoul and Washington have said their four-day joint exercises, scheduled to begin Sunday, are a bid to deter North Korea’s "aggressive" behavior.

"This is irresponsible and precisely why we are committed to denuclearization of the Korean peninsula," Crowley told AFP.

The North routinely threatens military action in response to joint military exercises by the United States and South Korea, saying they are a rehearsal for war.

But tensions in the region have been particularly high for the past two months, after Washington and Seoul accused the North of torpedoing a South Korean warship, killing 46 people.

The North denies involvement and says the "smear campaign" is a pretext for aggression.

          (Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act)


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## tomahawk6

Right now the North is doing what they do best - threaten. Its all talk. Now if they want to launch some missiles or try another nuclear test then things get amped up a bit. Unless the Chinese let their attack dog slip its leash its all a distraction.


----------



## 57Chevy

U.S., South Korea stage naval exercise despite nuclear threats
 KOREA 

SEOUL, July 25, 2010 (AFP) - The U.S. and South Korea on Sunday launched a major naval exercise involving a nuclear-powered US aircraft carrier in the Sea of Japan despite North Korea’s threats of nuclear retaliation.

The drill is the first in a series intended "to send a clear message to North Korea that its aggressive behaviour must stop," US Defence Secretary Robert Gates and the South’s Defence Minister Kim Tae-Young said in a joint statement this week after talks.

South Korea and the United States, citing the findings of a multinational investigation, accuse the North of torpedoing a South Korean warship near the tense Yellow Sea border in March.

The communist North denies involvement in the sinking of the Cheonan, which claimed 46 lives.

The US-led United Nations Command said the four-day drill would involve about 20 ships, including the aircraft carrier USS George Washington, and some 200 fixed-wing aircraft.

Around 8,000 service personnel from the two allies were to take part in the show of force.

"The USS George Washington left the southern port of Busan around 7:00am Sunday (2200 GMT Saturday). It’s sailing towards the Sea of Japan (East Sea) for the exercise," a US military spokesman told AFP.

atricle continues...
                  (Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act)


----------



## thunderchild

I think that it is more likely that China "occupies" North Korea rather then let it start a war that will cause millions of deaths and has no hope of  winning.   Any Ideas?


----------



## Edward Campbell

China and the USA are both using the sinking of the ROK corvette and the ongoing US/ROK exercises in the Sea of Japan to press their own regional agendas.

Currently, the DPRK is playing into America's hands by creating "fears" when none should exist. In the longer term China _hopes_ that, as there usually is, there will be a counter-reaction to the US "security" posture. Their hope, perhaps even their plan, is that there will be no DPRK action at all, and, in a month or so, the incipient anti-Americanism that is growing in Japan and ROK and, indeed, all the ASEAN nations will assert itself.

Secretary Clinton's recent remarks re: South China Seas dispute settlement provoked the strongest language from a Chinese foreign minister that I have heard in many years and, as far as I can tell from watching/reading both Chinese (CCTV News) and Western/Asian channels (CNN Asia, BBC, etc) and newspapers, the "expert" (TV _talking head_/columnist) reaction is that the US poked China in the eye and China poked back, surprisingly quickly and shockingly harder.

My quesstimate: China is willing (but able?) to play "hardball" with the current US administration in this (East and South-East Asia) region. The DPRK is a Chinese tool which, to date, it has, mostly - the sinking of the corvette being an exception, used carefully and effectively.

I repeat: the Chinese aim, in the medium to long term, is a united Korea - under Seoul's _capitalist_ and _democratic_ leadership, *but without a US military presence on the Korean peninsula*.

The Chinese have, broadly, proved to be pretty good at setting achievable, long term goals and seeing them through to fruition.


----------



## CougarKing

*The U.S. nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS George Washington *  (bottom) and the *South Korean Navy's Landing Platform Helicopter ship Dokdo* leave for a U.S.-South Korea joint naval and air exercise at a South Korean naval port in Busan, about 420 km (262 miles) southeast of Seoul, July 25, 2010. The aircraft carrier is participating in the massive combined air and naval exercise held by South Korea and the U.S. in the East Sea from July 25 to 28 to demonstrate their deterrence plans against North Korea, according to the defence ministries of the two countries. REUTERS/Jo Jung-Ho/Yonhap


----------



## zipperhead_cop

Slight hijack observation...
Are there any _non-nuclear _ powered aircraft carriers anymore?  It always strikes me as 80's style hype when the news always tacks "NUCLEAR POWERED" on to a vessels designation.  Who cares? If it was bio-diesel or solar powered, that might be interesting.  Nuclear?  Not so much.  

[/hijack]


----------



## Oldgateboatdriver

The answer is no, for the USA anyway, Zipperhead. The last conventional US carrier, the John F. Kennedy was decommissioned in 2007.

However, there are conventional carriers in other countries: India, Italy, France, Brazil, the UK, and more if you look at "baby carriers".


----------



## CougarKing

More pics of the joint USN-ROKN exercise:






The Los Angeles-class attack submarine USS Tucson (SSN 770) is underway ahead of the U.S. nuclear-powered aircraft carrier *USS George Washington* (first row, 2nd L) and *South Korean Navy's Landing Platform Helicopter ship Dokdo*  (first row, 2nd R) during the U.S.-South Korea joint naval and air exercise in the open sea east of South Korea July 26, 2010. North Korea has declared a "sacred war" against the United States and South Korea in retaliation for the allies' military drills that began on Sunday, accusing them of driving the Korean peninsula to the brink of explosion. The drills are aimed at boosting deterrence against the North. REUTERS/Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Adam K. Thomas-US Navy/Handout 






REUTERS/Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Adam K. Thomas-US Navy/Handout 






REUTERS/South Korean Navy/Handout


----------



## zipperhead_cop

Oldgateboatdriver said:
			
		

> The answer is no, for the USA anyway, Zipperhead. The last conventional US carrier, the John F. Kennedy was decommissioned in 2007.
> 
> However, there are conventional carriers in other countries: India, Italy, France, Brazil, the UK, and more if you look at "baby carriers".



Thanks for the info, good to know  

I still don't get how the energy system of a vessal has anything to do with a given news item though.


----------



## Oldgateboatdriver

If I may suggest a possibility here: Perhaps these journalists use the same rule as these forums, that you do not use acronyms unless universally understood.

I look at the caption on the picture and see, for instance that they describe the Dodko but do not use naval identifier for it either.

The description before either ship corresponds to their naval identifier:

Dodko  is LPH 6111: LPH stands for Landing Platform Helicopter.

The Washington is CVN 73, meaning Aircraft-carrier (CV) Nuclear powered.

The use of N, for nuclear, is of importance for naval planning purposes and is used for all classes of ships to distinguish the nuclear ones from the non nuclear (for instance, SSK is a hunter-killer submarine, while a SSN is a Nuclear powered hunter-killer submarine.) In naval circles, knowing the type of propulsion (classic vs nuclear) permits planning taking into consideration issues of speed, need for resupply in fuel, range, maximum transit speeds etc. So it is important to know.


----------



## 57Chevy

The largest warships ever built. A small city that goes 30kt........amazing  
Other information:  Nuclear Powered Aircraft Carriers


----------



## zipperhead_cop

Oldgateboatdriver said:
			
		

> If I may suggest a possibility here: Perhaps these journalists use the same rule as these forums, that you do not use acronyms unless universally understood.
> 
> I look at the caption on the picture and see, for instance that they describe the Dodko but do not use naval identifier for it either.
> 
> The description before either ship corresponds to their naval identifier:
> 
> Dodko  is LPH 6111: LPH stands for Landing Platform Helicopter.
> 
> The Washington is CVN 73, meaning Aircraft-carrier (CV) Nuclear powered.
> 
> The use of N, for nuclear, is of importance for naval planning purposes and is used for all classes of ships to distinguish the nuclear ones from the non nuclear (for instance, SSK is a hunter-killer submarine, while a SSN is a Nuclear powered hunter-killer submarine.) In naval circles, knowing the type of propulsion (classic vs nuclear) permits planning taking into consideration issues of speed, need for resupply in fuel, range, maximum transit speeds etc. So it is important to know.



Awesome!  Thanks for the info, at least that makes sense.  
Now if we could just do something about that Hans Brix!!


----------



## CougarKing

Tragic:

Agence-France-Presse link



> *Drifting N.Korean mine kills S.Korean  *
> 
> 30 minutes ago
> 
> 
> SEOUL (AFP) - *A North Korean mine which drifted along a river into the neighbouring South killed a man and badly injured another when it exploded, military officials said Sunday.
> 
> Several wooden box mines have been retrieved by South Korean soldiers and police, but it was not immediately clear how the mines ended up drifting into the South*.
> 
> 
> The explosion was reported shortly before midnight Saturday in a restricted border area in Yeoncheon, 60 kilometres (35 miles) northeast of Seoul, the defence ministry said.
> 
> 
> A 48-year-old man died and a 25-year-old man was seriously injured.
> 
> 
> "Han was killed by one of the North Korean wooden box mines which had drifted south along the border river," a ministry spokesman told AFP.
> 
> 
> *South Korean soldiers and police have retrieved 29 boxes of North Korean mines in their joint search which began on Friday along all streams connected to the Imjin River, he said, of which 18 boxes were empty.*
> 
> 
> Heavy rain has hit the northern part of the peninsula in recent weeks, swelling water levels. The North has discharged water from dams north of the river flowing to South Korea.
> 
> 
> Last September six South Korean campers died when North Korea suddenly discharged dam water and created a flash flood.
> (...)


----------



## tomahawk6

The weapons that we dont know about are the real concern. Of course as soon as they start firing their positions will be revealed. :camo:




> North repositions artillery: sources
> 
> August 03, 2010
> North Korea is repositioning its arsenal near the South Korean border in an attempt to make it more difficult for long-range artillery fire to inflict significant damage on its resources, according to intelligence sources.
> 
> The sources told the JoongAng Ilbo on Sunday that the North Korean military is relocating its long-range artillery fire, which is set up in mountain caves, from near the southern gate of the caves to the northern gate. The North is also building a protective cover over the facility, the sources said.
> 
> “Over several years, South Korea and the United States have prepared against the threat from North Korean long-range artillery fire,” said a military official. “As far as I know, the North Korean military is taking measures to improve the chances that its long-range artillery fire will survive [an attack from the South] by repositioning them inside the [caves].”
> 
> Another source said if artillery were relocated to the back of the caves, the South Korea-U.S. alliance would have trouble counterattacking a North Korean attack and hitting the North Korean long-range artillery fire with K9 (155-millimeter) artillery and a multiple launch rocket system.
> 
> Only a Joint Direct Attack Munition (a kind of smart bomb) or missiles dropped from a combat plane could destroy the long-range artillery fire moved to the rear, the second source said, adding that it would significantly limit the ways Seoul and Washington could respond to an attack.
> 
> The protective cover the North is setting up is meant to counter cluster bombs, the second source said. Cluster bombs are air-dropped weapons that eject a cluster of smaller bombs. The sources said the South Korean military is considering developing new weapons that could destroy this cover.
> 
> North Korea’s long-range artillery fire, either a 240-millimeter caliber multiple-launch rocket system or a 170-millimeter self-propelled artillery, claim an effective range of 55 to 65 kilometers (34 to 40 miles). According to the South Korean Defense White Paper and other military data, about 600 such North Korean munitions have been set up near the border, posing a significant threat to Seoul.


----------



## CougarKing

Agence-France Presse link




> *S.Korea warns N.Korea on eve of naval drill  *
> 34 minutes ago
> 
> SEOUL (AFP) - South Korea warned North Korea Wednesday it would not tolerate provocations during an upcoming naval exercise in the Yellow Sea, after Pyongyang threatened "strong physical retaliation" for the drill.
> 
> "Our military will keep a close eye on our enemy, be ready under any circumstances during the training and will not tolerate any type of provocation," Rear Admiral Kim Kyung-Sik told a briefing.
> 
> 
> A spokesman for the Joint Chiefs of Staff told AFP separately that if the North fires at the South, "we will stage an immediate counter-attack".
> 
> 
> The* five-day anti-submarine drill* starting Thursday is a response to the North's alleged torpedo attack in March on a South Korean warship, the Cheonan, which killed 46 sailors.
> 
> 
> *Military officials said 29 ships including a submarine and a destroyer, 50 fixed-wing aircraft and 4,500 army, navy, air force, marine and coastguard personnel would take part.
> 
> 
> They said marines stationed on islands near the disputed Yellow Sea border with the North would stage live-fire exercises*, but naval ships would stay far south of the line.
> 
> 
> Kim said the exercise would be a legitimate defensive drill in the South's waters. Its aim was "to warn North Korea, and show our military capability to them, that future provocations will not be tolerated".
> 
> (...)


----------



## CougarKing

The DPRK at it again:

Associated Press link



> *NKorea seizes SKorean fishing boat amid tension*
> 
> 2 hours, 59 minutes ago
> 
> 
> By Kwang-Tae Kim, The Associated Press
> 
> SEOUL, South Korea - *North Korean authorities seized a South Korean fishing boat and its crew Sunday in waters off the divided peninsula's eastern coast, the South's coast guard said amid heightened tensions over the sinking of a southern navy ship.
> 
> 
> Four South Korean and three Chinese fishermen were questioned for an alleged violation of the North's exclusive economic zone, South Korea's coast guard said in a statement. It said the fishing boat was being taken toward the North Korea's eastern port of Songjin.*
> 
> A South Korean fisherman told South Korea via a satellite phone that his boat was being towed by a North Korean patrol, according to the coast guard.
> 
> 
> The coast guard said it was not clear where exactly the 41-ton fishing boat was operating when it was seized. The boat departed South Korea's southeastern port of Pohang on Aug. 1 and was scheduled to return home on September 10.
> 
> 
> *South Korea called on the North to quickly return the fishing boat and its crew. However, the prospect of their quick return is being complicated because of tension over the March sinking of a South Korean warship off the western coast blamed on North Korea.
> 
> 
> South Korea also conducted naval drills off the western coast, including areas near the two countries' disputed sea border. The exercises, which end Monday, were aimed at strengthening South Korea's ability to counter any North Korean provocations.*
> 
> 
> North Korea — which has denied involvement in the sinking — warned last week it would "counter the reckless naval firing projected by the group of traitors with strong physical retaliation" and advised civilian ships to stay away from the maritime border.
> 
> 
> Maritime incidents involving fishing boats and other commercial vessels occur from time to time between the two Koreas. While most are resolved amicably, the rival navies engaged in three deadly skirmishes near their disputed western sea border in 1999, 2002 and November last year.
> 
> 
> Last August, North Korea freed four South Korean fishermen after detaining them for a month for illegally entering North Korean waters.
> 
> 
> Kim Yong-hyun, an expert on North Korean affairs at Seoul's Dongguk University, said the North may release the fishermen within a month after its investigation, since their boat appeared to have accidentally strayed into the North's waters.
> 
> 
> "South Korea should use the issue as a lubricant to improve relations with North Korea by actively seeking their quick return," Kim said. He also noted that North Korea should quickly free the fishermen because a prolonged detention could worsen ties with South Korea at a time when the North may need food aid from the South.


----------



## tomahawk6

Odd that there would be 3 Chinese onboard a South Korean fishing craft.


----------



## Old Sweat

And that the ship with three Chinese on board would be the one seized by the North Koreans.


----------



## zipperhead_cop

If the idea is that it was a Chinese/SKor JFO to keep an eye on NKor, wouldn't that be REALLY ballsy?  Outting Chinese operatives would probably honk off thier bosses.  I was of the impression that NKor needs to keep China happy for a while, given their recent shenanigans.


----------



## midget-boyd91

zipperhead_cop said:
			
		

> I was of the impression that NKor needs to keep China happy for a while, given their recent shenanigans.


  
DPRK would like to keep China happy and China would like to keep DPRK in line.


----------



## CougarKing

Agence-France-Presse link



> *N.Korea fires artillery into sea as tensions rise*
> 2 hours, 36 minutes ago
> 
> 
> SEOUL (AFP) - *North Korea fired an artillery barrage Monday into waters near the disputed inter-Korean sea border as tensions rose over a South Korean naval exercise and the seizure of one of a Seoul's fishing boats.
> 
> Batteries fired about 110 shells which all fell on the North's side of the Yellow Sea borderline, a spokesman for Seoul's Joint Chiefs of Staff told AFP*.
> 
> 
> The salvos began after the South's navy ended a five-day naval exercise south of the border, for which the North had threatened retaliation.
> 
> 
> "Our navy was placed on high alert, closely watching the movement of North Korean troops," the spokesman said.
> 
> 
> *The North's seizure Sunday of a South Korean fishing boat in the Sea of Japan (East Sea), on the other, eastern side of the peninsula, has further inflamed tensions.*
> 
> 
> South Korea's largest anti-submarine exercise yet was a show of force after Seoul accused its neighbour of torpedoing a South Korean warship in March near the contested border.
> 
> 
> The North, which denies staging the attack that killed 46 sailors, had warned of "strong physical retaliation" against the navy drill which it described as a preparation for invasion.
> 
> 
> The border drawn by UN forces after the 1950-53 war was the scene of deadly naval battles in 1999 and 2002 and a firefight last November which left a North Korean boat in flames.
> 
> 
> Some analysts believe the alleged torpedo attack was in revenge for the November clash.
> 
> 
> Earlier Monday Seoul urged Pyongyang to free the 41-ton squid fishing boat and its crew as soon as possible.
> 
> 
> It was unclear whether the weekend seizure was a response to the naval drill, or just an attempt to curb alleged illegal fishing.
> 
> (...)


----------



## CougarKing

A "master plan" ( >) for reunification...with a "unification tax" ?

Chosun link



> *Lee Lays Out 3-Stage Master Plan for Reunification  *
> 
> President Lee Myung-bak in a speech on Sunday marking the 65th anniversary of Korea's liberation from Japanese rule proposed a three-staged method of reunification with North Korea and the introduction of a "unification tax" to prepare for the massive cost.
> 
> "Today, inter-Korean relations demand a new paradigm," Lee said. "The two of us need to overcome the current state of division and proceed with the goal of peaceful reunification." The comments mark a shift from policies aimed at maintaining stability to active steps toward reunification.
> 
> "We long for the common prosperity and peace of both the South and the North, which will lead to reunification, and this is the right way to achieve the genuine liberation of the nation," he said. He urged North Korea to face reality and make a choice for change.
> 
> President Lee Myung-bak and leading political figures celebrate the 65th anniversary of Korea's liberation from Japanese colonial rule in central Seoul on Sunday. *The three-stage plan would start with a "peace community" that assures security on the peninsula including a denuclearized North, followed by the creation of an "economic community" developing the North's economy through exchanges, and eventually the full integration. His proposal of the "unification tax" was seen as a way of taking active steps toward those goals. *
> 
> There have been two broad theories of reunification. One is the so-called Sunshine Policy of gradual reunification proposed by former President Kim Dae-jung and favored by progressives. Proponents of the Sunshine Policy believe sudden reunification stemming from regime collapse in North Korea or other unexpected causes would entail tremendous social and financial costs for South Korea. They therefore favor reunification further down the road after the two Koreas narrow their economic differences and acclimatize to each other's societies.
> 
> In contrast, conservatives say such an approach would only prolong North Korea's autocratic regime and warn that the South must prepare for a sudden regime collapse in the North. Some even say South Korea should pressure North Korea in order to trigger regime collapse.
> 
> Lee's speech leans to the conservative approach, as is evident from his mention of the "need to overcome the current state of division," the establishment of a "peace community" and the shouldering of reunification costs, apparently in preparation for sudden changes in North Korea.
> 
> Evidently concerned about conveying such a strong message, Cheong Wa Dae issued a customary supplementary gloss of the presidential statement explaining that the unification tax and other measures were not designed specifically with a potential North Korean regime collapse in mind.
> 
> Lee's speech is expected to lead to a major debate in South Korea over how to deal with the North. At a press conference in Washington D.C. in 2008, Lee said reunification in the name of democracy is the "ultimate goal." He added it is important for the North and South to coexist in peace. Since then the North has severed ties with the South and stepped up military provocations. One close aide to Lee said, "The fact that the president, who is fully aware of repercussions, has raised the issue again at the start of the second half of his term reflects his determination."


----------



## a_majoor

If this is really the goal of the South (and it may well be), then they will also have to be prepared to move much faster than the Americans or Chinese in the event of the collapse of the DPRK (either internal or one they engineer) in order to make "Greater Korea" their own state and not a beachhead for the Americans in Asia nor a lever for the Chinese to force the Americans out of Asia.

I still think Robert Kaplan has the best prediction of the endgame in the article When North Korea Falls.


----------



## CougarKing

> BBC link
> 
> *North Korean plane crashes in China*
> 18 August 10 05:25 ET
> 
> 
> A North Korean aircraft, which may be a fighter jet, has crashed in China near the country's shared border, say Chinese and South Korean reports.
> 
> *It is believed the pilot, who was killed, may have been trying to defect to Russia*, according to unnamed intelligence sources cited by Yonhap.
> 
> The crash happened on Tuesday afternoon in Fushun county, Liaoning province.
> 
> Defections are common but an attempt by plane is highly unusual and would be a source of embarrassment for Pyongyang.
> 
> *China has a repatriation agreement with North Korea, which could explain why the pilot may have been trying to reach Russia, the report added.
> 
> North Korea has a military airbase in Sinuiju, near the border with China.
> 
> China's state media confirmed an unidentified small plane had crashed and that it may belong to North Korea.*
> 
> An investigation into the cause of the crash was under way, Xinhua reported.
> 
> Soviet-era jet
> 
> Photographs of the wreckage reportedly taken by a local resident and posted on the internet showed North Korea's insignia on the plane's fuselage.
> 
> Military experts said the plane appeared to be a Soviet-era fighter jet, which were used during the 1950-53 Korean War.
> 
> A report in Hong Kong's Ming Pao newspaper said that a second pilot had bailed out but gave no information on his whereabouts. It conflicts with the South Korean report of only one pilot on board.
> 
> Technically, North and South Korea remain at war although a ceasefire agreement ended fighting in 1953.
> 
> Their border is the most heavily militarised zone in the world.


----------



## a_majoor

Applying enough pressure to brittle regimes will crush them like eggshells; the only problem is are we willing to clean up the mess made? I suspect that if (huge hypothetical here) the United States or an alliance were to take steps such as suggested here, not only would the DPRK fold up and blow away, but many other hostile regimes would become remarkably restrained and compliant overnight after a show of strength. Remember how quiet the Middle East became for a year after OIF? Few others stuck their heads up either, until they were satisfied that the United States was fully occupied in Iraq and unwilling to take on more challenges at the time.

http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/targeting-north-korea-let’s-think-like-a-kim/?print=1



> *Targeting North Korea: Let’s Think Like a Kim*
> Posted By Gordon G. Chang On August 17, 2010 @ 10:42 am In Asia, Koreas, World News | 12 Comments
> 
> On Monday, the United States and South Korea began the 11-day Ulchi Freedom Guardian exercise. The ongoing drill, “one of the largest joint staff-directed theatre exercises in the world,” is an annual event. This year it involves 86,000 troops. It is, not coincidentally, taking place at the same time 400,000 of the South’s officials and government employees are participating in an anti-terrorism exercise.
> 
> Moreover, it has only been a week since Seoul wrapped up its most extensive anti-submarine drill and 19 days after the end of joint naval maneuvers in the Sea of Japan by the American and South Korean navies. The two allies, obviously, are intensifying their preparations for war.
> 
> As they should. The North Koreans, in March, torpedoed the Cheonan and killed 46 South Korean sailors on the frigate. Since then, Pyongyang has snatched [1] a South Korean fishing boat with its crew of seven and been hurling invective toward the South.  For instance, on Sunday the North Korean military promised to inflict [2] the “severest punishment no one has ever met in the world” for the Ulchi Freedom Guardian drill.
> 
> Of course, we know the North Koreans have no intention of initiating hostilities at this moment. For one thing, they always issue bellicose statements whenever the Americans and South Koreans participate in military drills, even though they are defensive in nature. And, as a shrewd aggressor, Kim Jong Il, the North’s wily leader, would not think of committing an act of violence when his adversaries have deployed so many military assets on or near the Korean peninsula.
> 
> Yet we also know that, in the near future, Chairman Kim will order his forces to kill South Koreans — and possibly Americans as well. Why? First, he and his dad, Kim Il Sung, have established a pattern of wanton events. Among other things, they grabbed the Navy’s Pueblo in international waters and tortured the crew, shot down an unarmed Navy reconnaissance plane and killed 31 aviators — the largest loss of U.S. servicemen in a single incident in the Cold War — bombed the South Korean cabinet in Burma, shot down a South Korean civilian airliner, and regularly attacked targets in the South.
> 
> Moreover, creating incidents is good politics at home — it rallies members of the regime and demonstrates Kim’s power to ordinary citizens. And murder — let’s call Kim’s acts by their proper name — has convinced weak American and South Korean leaders to provide assistance to the regime. Washington and Seoul have, if the truth be told, paid Mr. Kim to refrain from slaughtering their citizens and soldiers.
> 
> This dynamic — horrible incidents, followed by acts of resolve, and then payment of rewards — continues. No one outside North Korea likes it, but no one wants to risk war with the Kim family regime. How do we finally break this iron cycle?
> 
> Here’s a suggestion: Let’s think like a Kim. Kim commits minor acts of aggression because he knows he can get away with them.  Case in point: He sinks the Cheonan, and two things happen. The president of the Security Council reads a statement, and then Seoul and Washington conduct military drills. Kim, who is not adversely affected by either of these moves, knows we will not start a war to avenge his acts of murder.
> 
> So let’s recognize that Kim won’t start hostilities if we retaliate with small steps that injure his regime. He knows that a general conflict on the Korean peninsula will destroy his state. So he won’t start one if he has any hope of continuing his family’s rule.  This situation gives us considerable room for maneuver.
> 
> To stop his acts of killing, we have to make him hurt. For example, after the sinking of the Cheonan, Seoul could have closed down the Kaesong industrial zone, which is just north of the Demilitarized Zone that separates the two Koreas. There, about 120 South Korean businesses employ around 44,000 North Korean workers. That, by itself, would deprive Kim of a substantial source of funding because Pyongyang skims a large portion of the wages.
> 
> Similarly, we can cut off North Korea’s access to the international financial system. The Bush administration did just that in September 2005 when it declared Banco Delta Asia, a bank Kim used in Macau, to be a “primary money laundering concern.” As such, no financial institution would do business with it. And as a result, North Korea, for two years, had to use its diplomats to ferry cash in bulging suitcases around the world. And, lo and behold, Kim Jong Il did not start a war even though the U.S. Treasury Department crippled his government.
> 
> Washington, in the wake of the Cheonan incident, has announced [3] a new set of financial sanctions, but they are too narrowly crafted. Why not expand them and really injure Kim? This would be a particularly good time to do that because he is in failing health and preoccupied by the internal opposition to his efforts to install his 27-year-old son, Kim Jong Un, on the throne.
> 
> Similarly, we can ring the waters around the North with frigates and begin inspecting all cargoes on the high seas. Similarly, we should search every plane leaving North Korea when they land in countries friendly to us. Kim has been exporting nuclear technologies to Iran and Syria, so we need to stop him in any event.
> 
> Kim will not start a war if we employ the same tactics against him that he uses against us. And if we do not change our approach toward his aggressive regime, we know one thing: the killing of Americans and South Koreans will continue.
> 
> Article printed from Pajamas Media: http://pajamasmedia.com
> 
> URL to article: http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/targeting-north-korea-let%e2%80%99s-think-like-a-kim/
> 
> URLs in this post:
> 
> [1] snatched: http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/asiapcf/08/08/south.korea.fishing.boat/index.html
> [2] inflict: http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/dprk/2010/dprk-100815-kcna01.htm
> [3] announced: http://www.foxnews.com/world/2010/07/21/clinton-impose-new-sanctions-defiant-north-korea-stop-nuclear-proliferation/


----------



## CougarKing

North Korea unveils a "new" MBT:

Chosun link









> *N.Korea Unveils New Battle Tank*
> 
> Intelligence authorities are analyzing footage of a new battle tank shown on North Korean state TV recently. So far the existence of the "Pokpung" (Storm) had only been a rumor.
> 
> *A South Korean military source on Monday said the Pokpung appears to be an improved version of the North Korean Army's previous model "Chonma" (Flying Horse) in terms of firepower and maneuverability.*
> 
> The Pokpung tank is also known as the M-2002, as it is presumed to have been rolled out in 2002.
> 
> *Armed with a 125 mm or 115 mm gun, the Pokpung appears to be a drastically improved version of the former Soviet Union's T-62 tank, the latest issue of Defense Science & Technology Information, a magazine published by the Defense Ministry says.*
> 
> 
> It seems to be more heavily armed with a 14.5 mm KPV anti-aircraft machine gun, which is more powerful than the 12.7 mm machine gun mounted on older tanks. Also equipped with a laser range finder and an infrared searchlight, the tank is presumed to have a higher accuracy as it has a more modern fire control system than earlier models.
> 
> The magazine said that the Pokpung has been built at the Ryu Kyong-su Tank Factory since it was developed in the 1990s. How many of the tanks have been deployed warfare-ready is not known, but they are said to have been deployed only at an elite tank unit.
> 
> *The North Korean Army has about 3,900 tanks, much more than the South Korean Army's 2,300, but they are believed to perform much more poorly.*


----------



## CougarKing

When I first read this, I initially thought that maybe these troops were being moved in to prevent a power struggle.

Agence-France-Presse link




> *S.Korea detects 'massive' N.Korea troop deployment *
> 
> 54 minutes ago
> 
> SEOUL (AFP) - *South Korea has detected a "massive" deployment of North Korean troops and arms near the capital Pyongyang, Seoul's defence ministry said Tuesday.
> 
> The large number of soldiers, armoured vehicles and artillery have been stationed near the communist state's capital since July 12, the ministry said in a report to parliament.*
> 
> The deployment appears to be related to political events such as a meeting of key communist party delegates next month and the party's 65th anniversary on October 10, a ministry spokesman told AFP.
> 
> 
> "The massive deployment of troops could be designed to show their military power at home and abroad, or for security," he said.
> 
> 
> North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il has not publicly appointed an eventual successor, but his youngest son, Kim Jong-Un, is widely believed to be being groomed to take over from his ailing 68-year-old father.
> 
> 
> Some analysts say Kim Jong-Il will probably designate the son as his political heir at the September meeting, the third such gathering since the communist state was founded in 1948.
> 
> 
> It is seen as the most important party event since 1980, when a convention of all-party members made public Kim Jong-Il's status as the eventual successor to his father, and founding president, Kim Il-Sung.
> 
> 
> Kim Jong-Il took over from his father in 1994.
> 
> 
> South Korea's spy chief said in June that the leader's poor health was driving him to speed up preparations for a handover and that Jong-Un was taking a greater role in policymaking and often accompanied his father on inspection tours.


----------



## CougarKing

Reuters link



> *North Korea's Kim not seen heading for retirement yet*
> 
> Sun Aug 29, 4:05 AM
> 
> 
> By Jack Kim
> 
> SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korea's ruling party holds its biggest meeting in 30 years early next month to pick a new leadership and likely anoint an heir to the dynasty as Kim Jong-il's health deteriorates.
> 
> 
> Kim, suspected of suffering a stroke in 2008, is believed to have accelerated succession plans, but analysts say the meeting of the Workers' Party won't send its supreme leader into retirement just yet.
> 
> 
> The decision by the powerful Political Bureau of the party Central Committee in June to call September's meeting indicated it will be a watershed, and that it will involve a major reshuffle of its officials for the first time in decades.
> 
> 
> *The big question is whether Kim's youngest son, Jong-un, will be given an official title and how it will rank in seniority. Additionally, North Korea watchers will be monitoring to see what positions his backers get.
> 
> "I think what will happen is Kim Jong-il and Kim Jong-un will begin a joint leadership system in 2012, and until then, the son will hold a key position but one that is not as public," said Yang Moo-jin of the University of North Korean Studies.
> 
> Experts say North Korea, hit by sanctions punishing it for its nuclear weapons programme, could adopt a collective leadership when Kim dies with his son identified as figurehead leader but real power held by a group of officials from the ruling Workers' Party and the military.*
> 
> 
> The meeting takes place at a time of great hardship for the impoverished North as it tries to work around the sanctions and accomplish something to show for its pledge to become a "powerful and prosperous" nation by 2012.
> 
> 
> By all accounts, the North's coffers are hopelessly low in cash and heavy rains this year have hit food production that even in a good year falls a million tonnes short of the amount needed to feed its 23 million people.
> 
> 
> The meeting in early September comes amid a flurry of diplomatic activity in the region, home to the world's second- and third-largest economies and a massive arms build-up straddling the Korean peninsula military border.
> 
> 
> *Kim this week was on his second visit to China in a few months, a trip observers say was probably designed to let Beijing know of the North's planned father-to-son power transition process.*
> 
> 
> At around the same time, North Korea expressed a willingness to return to nuclear disarmament talks, which have been in limbo since 2008 when North Korea walked out and said they were finished. China has hosted the on-again-off-again talks since they began in 2003.
> 
> 
> THIRD GENERATION
> 
> 
> Speculation over who will succeed as the third generation of leader to the world's first communist dynasty has grown with Kim's noticeable decline in health.
> 
> 
> South Korea, China, the United States and Japan will all be watching for clues as to how the transfer of power proceeds in the country with a military-first policy and enough fissile material for at least six to eight nuclear weapons.
> 
> 
> With North and South still technically at war, having only signed an armistice in 1953, regional powers are anxious to know what changes are afoot and who will command the country's nearly 1.2 million troops and another 7.7 million in the reserves.
> 
> 
> Founded on October 10, 1945, the Workers' Party of Korea has been the pinnacle of power in the North, the source of the go-it-alone Juche ideology, a mix of Marxism and ultra-nationalism preached by Kim's father and state founder, Kim Il-sung.
> 
> 
> Kim Jong-il rules as the party's general secretary on top of his role as chairman of the National Defense Commission. His grooming as a future leader began at the party level three decades ago when he was given a formal role at a convention.
> 
> There has been barely a handful of sessions of the solemn national convention since the party's founding. But each was a milestone in the evolution of the state from a revolutionary movement fighting Japan's colonial rule to a reclusive regime that has stoked regional tensions with armed provocations and pursuit of weapons of mass destruction.


----------



## Edward Campbell

See here for some comments on China and North Korea.


----------



## Edward Campbell

South Korea does a little _sabre rattling_ of it own.





_Photo: JO YONG-HAK/REUTERS_
South Korean Marine Corps' amphibious vehicles and the Navy's Landing Platform Helicopter (LPH) ship Dokdo (behind) take part in a mock landing operation in the sea off Incheon, west of Seoul. The operation marked the 60th anniversary of the U.S.-led United Nations troops' Incheon Landing Operations during the 1950-1953 Korean War.

Reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the _Globe and Mail_.


----------



## George Wallace

The first thing to come to mind when I looked at that photo was:  "Oh my God!  The North Koreans have created a Donut Bomb."


----------



## vonGarvin

George Wallace said:
			
		

> The first thing to come to mind when I looked at that photo was:  "Oh my God!  The North Koreans have created a Donut Bomb."


The first thing _I_ thought was "Oh my God, the Koreans have perfected the Mortar Bomb!"



(For those who don't know such things of lore and slander, Infantry Mortarmen were often derided and ridiculed for having insatiable appetites for doughnuts.  Total and utter lies, I say, but still pretty funny!)


----------



## b7197

Not the North Koreans, but the South Koreans.


----------



## Edward Campbell

b7197 said:
			
		

> Not the North Koreans, but the South Koreans.



Perceptive of you to notice that, especially since the posting was headed: *"South Korea does a little sabre rattling of it own."* That would have led several people astray.


----------



## OldSolduer

Technoviking said:
			
		

> The first thing _I_ thought was "Oh my God, the Koreans have perfected the Mortar Bomb!"
> 
> 
> 
> (For those who don't know such things of lore and slander, Infantry Mortarmen were often derided and ridiculed for having insatiable appetites for doughnuts.  Total and utter lies, I say, but still pretty funny!)



Its true, we did love our donuts in 2VP Mortar Pl!!   ;D


----------



## 57Chevy

SEOUL - Secretive North Korea on Thursday published a photograph of the youngest son and heir apparent to the communist state's ailing leader Kim Jong-Il, the first official image of him ever released. 
 Article continues.....Read more: N.Korea publishes first photo of heir apparent 
                     _________________________________________________________

This undated picture released from North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on September 30, 2010 shows North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il (front R) during a photo session with the newly elected members of the central leadership body of the Workers' Party of Korea at the plaza of the Kumsusan Memorial Palace in Pyongyang. The Worker's Party of Korea on September September 28 held its highest-level gathering for 30 years to elect a new leadership. The party senior postgiven to Kim's son Jong-Un appeared to confirm his status as his father's heir apparent.
 Attached photograph by:
 KNS/AFP/Getty Images, KNS/AFP/Getty Images

           (Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act)


----------



## 57Chevy

Koreas exchange gunfire at land border:

SEOUL - North and South Korea exchanged gunfire across their heavily armed land border on Friday, the South's military said, despite an apparent thaw in tensions on the divided peninsula in the past few months. 

The North Korean frontline guard post fired two shots towards a South Korean guardpost across the demilitarised zone and the South returned fire with three shots, a joint chiefs of staff official said. 

It was not immediately clear why North Korea fired first, he said. 

South Korea media said the shots were fired towards a frontline unit in Cheorwon in the eastern province of Gangwon. There were no reports of injuries. 

Relations between the two Koreas, still technically at war after signing only a truce to halt hostilities in the 1950-53 Korean War, sank to the lowest level in years in March with the torpedoing of the South's warship, killing 46 sailors. 
There was an exchange of artillery fire earlier this year at the disputed sea border. 

South Korea and the United States said the North was responsible for the sinking, but Pyongyang denied any role. 

In the past few months, tensions have eased on the peninsula with the South sending aid to its impoverished neighbour, and on the weekend the two sides will resume reunions of families separated by the 1950-53 Korean War. 

The thaw comes as regional powers look for ways to restart talks with the North on ending its nuclear arms program. 
However, Seoul has said said it won't return to bilateral negotiations until the reclusive North acknowledges being behind the attack on the warship, posing a major stumbling block to the resumption of aid-for-disarmament talks with Pyongyang. 
article link

                            (Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act)


----------



## AJFitzpatrick

S. Korean navy fires on N. Korean fishing boat:

South Korea's navy fired warning shots toward a North Korean fishing boat near their disputed sea border, the Defence Ministry said Wednesday, the latest sign of tension on the divided peninsula ahead of next week's Group of 20 summit in Seoul.

The ministry said the boat violated the countries' western maritime boundary for about two hours before returning to North Korean waters early Wednesday. The maritime border, the scene of three deadly skirmishes between the Koreas, is a key flashpoint because the North does not recognize the UN line drawn at the end of the 1950-53 Korean War.

South Korea is bracing for any possible North Korean moves to sabotage next week's G20 summit of leading industrialized and developing countries.

The North has a track record of provocations during times when world attention is focused on Seoul.

In 1987, a year before Seoul hosted the Summer Olympics, North Korean agents planted a bomb on a South Korean plane, killing all 115 people on board. In 2002, when the South jointly hosted soccer's World Cup along with Japan, a North Korean naval boat sank a South Korean patrol vessel near the sea border.

South Korean President Lee Myung-bak said in a televised news conference Wednesday that he did not believe the North would take any such action, but that Seoul was ready for anything.

"The South Korean government is making thorough preparations against [any possible attacks] by North Korea," Lee said.

....



 more 


   (Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act)


----------



## Oh No a Canadian

From CNN

North Korea Reportedly Fires on South Korea; Killing 1 and Injuring 15.



> North Korea fired artillery toward its tense western sea border with South Korea on Tuesday, killing at least one South Korean soldier, the Yonhap news agency reported.
> 
> Two civilians and 13 other South Korean military personnel were injured, with three of the soldiers seriously hurt, Yonhap said.
> 
> At least 200 rounds of artillery hit an inhabited South Korean island in the Yellow Sea after the North started firing about 2:30 p.m. local time, Yonhap said.
> 
> South Korea's military responded with 80 rounds of artillery and deployed fighter jets to counter the fire, the report said.
> 
> The South Korean army also raised its alert condition, the report said.
> 
> Images of plumes of smoke were quickly broadcast on Yonhap television from the island of Yeonpyeong, but it was not immediately clear what the artillery had hit.
> 
> The South Korean government immediately called an emergency meeting of its security ministers.
> 
> South Korean President Lee Myung-bak ordered his ministers to take measures against an escalation of the situation, presidential spokeswoman Kim Hee-jung said, according to Yonhap.


Full story: http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/asiapcf/11/23/nkorea.skorea.military.fire/index.html?hpt=T1&iref=BN1


----------



## bdave

http://edition.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/asiapcf/11/23/nkorea.skorea.military.fire/?hpt=T2 said:
			
		

> Seoul, South Korea (CNN) -- North Korea fired artillery toward its tense western sea border with South Korea on Tuesday, killing at least one South Korean soldier, the Yonhap news agency reported.
> Two civilians and 13 other South Korean military personnel were injured, with three of the soldiers seriously hurt, Yonhap said.
> A Ministry of Defense spokesman contradicted the Yonhap report, saying that no deaths had been confirmed and that the military was checking on possible civilian casualties.
> At least 200 rounds of artillery hit an inhabited South Korean island in the Yellow Sea after the North started firing about 2:30 p.m. local time, Yonhap said.
> South Korea's military responded with 80 rounds of artillery and deployed fighter jets to counter the fire, the report said.
> Sharp tensions on the Korean Peninsula Report: N. Korea fires on S. Korea
> 
> The South Korean army also raised its alert condition, the report said.
> Images of plumes of smoke were quickly broadcast on Yonhap television from the island of Yeonpyeong, but it was not immediately clear what the artillery had hit. The island has a large military garrison.
> The island has a total of about 1,300 residents, a fisherman who lives on the island told Yonhap.
> Some residents started fleeing for the South Korean mainland, which is about 145 kilometers [90 miles] away. Other residents were seeking shelter at schools.
> The South Korean government immediately called an emergency meeting of its security ministers.
> South Korean President Lee Myung-bak ordered his ministers to take measures against an escalation of the situation, presidential spokeswoman Kim Hee-jung said, according to Yonhap.
> The North Korean fire came as the South's military conducted routine drills in waters off the island, which is about 10 kilometers [6 miles] from the North.
> The Yellow Sea has been a longstanding flashpoint between the two Koreas, but Tuesday's attack was an escalation in violence.
> "Our navy was conducting a maritime exercise near the western sea border today.
> North Korea has sent a letter of protest over the drill. We're examining a possible link between the protest and the artillery attack," presidential spokeswoman Kim said, according to Yonhap.
> The island is part of a small archipelago about 80 kilometers (49 miles) west of the South Korean port of Inchon, which serves Seoul, and is close to the tense Northern Limit Line, the maritime border between the two Koreas in the Yellow Sea.
> A South Korean warship, the Cheonan was sunk in the area in March with the loss of 46 lives in a suspected North Korean torpedo attack.



(Moderator edit to add date to thread title.)


----------



## Nauticus

I see this spiraling out of control rather quickly.


----------



## Oh No a Canadian

I have heard reports of high activity at US air bases from other online communities.


----------



## bdave

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/9218848.stm


----------



## RogersD

Had read the above article a few hours ago. Scary stuff.


----------



## Civvymedic

I can't imagine the South can take much more without a response...


----------



## 57Chevy

I'm thinking that this may have something to do with the spiralling effect.
                        __________________________________________________

''China must use its influence to restore peace.''  

 Tension in the Korean peninsula, which was sparked by North Korea’s sinking of a South Korean ship in March, is spiralling. The South Korean government has expressed its anger with Pyongyang through a series of steps, including a ban on all trade, investment and visits with North Korea. It has banned North Korean ships from using its waterways or shortcuts. It is also referring the case to the United Nations Security Council. North Korea, which is denying having sunk the ship has reportedly placed its armed forces on alert. The sudden and sharp deterioration in relations between the two Koreas is unfortunate. Inter-Korea relations have undergone a significant improvement in recent years. That is now in serious jeopardy. There is understandable anger in South Korea. Forty-six of its sailors were killed when the ship sank. But calls for retribution must not be encouraged as an escalation of the crisis is not in nobody’s interest.

The response of the international community has not been helpful so far. Although the United States has desisted from describing the sinking of the ship as an act of war, its recent announcement that US forces would conduct joint naval exercises with South Korea in the near future “to ensure readiness and to deter future aggression” by North Korea is provocative. Instead of working to ease tensions in the peninsula, its actions are adding fuel to the fire in a region that is restive. As for China, it has adopted a cautious approach. China must use its leverage over Pyongyang to quietly but firmly convince it that hostile behaviour is untenable.

How the permanent members act in the UNSC will determine the events in the Korean peninsula. If the US seeks to bulldoze a resolution that provides for punishing sanctions, China will block it. A divided SC will leave the UN severely scarred. It will also encourage countries to engage in the kind of reckless behaviour that North Korea has indulged in. World powers must seek a consensus to deal with North Korea. Punishing Pyongyang with tough sanctions might seem an attractive solution but that might not be the best way to go in the long run as sanctions have rarely worked in forcing regimes to act responsibly. A carrot and stick solution must be sought.

Deccan Herald article link
                          (Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act)


----------



## The Bread Guy

Scary....

More from the Associated Press ....


> North Korea bombarded a South Korean island near their disputed western border Tuesday, setting buildings ablaze and killing at least two marines after warning the South to halt military drills in the area, South Korean officials said.
> 
> South Korea said it returned fire and scrambled fighter jets in response, and said the "inhumane" attack on civilian areas violated the 1953 armistice halting the Korean War. The two sides technically remain at war because a peace treaty was never negotiated.
> 
> Hours after the skirmish, North Korea's supreme military command threatened to continue strikes against its rival if it violated their disputed sea border "even 0.001 millimeter," according to the North's official Korean Central News Agency ....



.... from AFP ....


> North Korea fired dozens of artillery shells onto a South Korean island on Tuesday, killing two people, setting homes ablaze and triggering an exchange of fire as the South's military went on top alert.
> 
> In what appeared to be one of the most serious border incidents since the 1950-53 war, South Korean troops fired back with cannon, the government convened in an underground war room and "multiple" air force jets scrambled.
> 
> North Korea's official media, however, accused South Korea of firing first.
> 
> The firing came after North Korea's disclosure of an apparently operational uranium enrichment plant -- a second potential way of building a nuclear bomb -- which is causing serious alarm for the United States and its allies ....



.... and Reuters:


> North Korea on Tuesday fired dozens of artillery shells at a South Korean island, in one of the heaviest bombardments on the South since the Korean War ended in 1953. Skip related content
> 
> South Korean President Lee Myung-bak, who has pursued a hard line with the reclusive North since taking office nearly three years ago, said a response had to be firm following the attack on Yeonpyeong island, just 120 km (75 miles) west of the capital Seoul.
> 
> The two Koreas are still technically at war -- the Korean War ended only with a truce --and tension rose sharply early this year after Seoul accused the North of torpedoing one of its navy vessels, killing 46 sailors.
> 
> "Houses and mountains are on fire and people are evacuating. You can't see very well because of plumes of smoke," a witness on the island told YTN Television.
> 
> "People are frightened to death and shelling continues as we speak."
> 
> YTN said at least 200 North Korean shells hit Yeonpyeong, which lies off the west coast of the divided peninsula near a disputed maritime border. Most of the shells landed on a South Korean military base there.
> 
> South Korea's military said one soldier was killed and three seriously injured in the attack. South Korean military returned the fire and sent a jet fighter to the area ....



Maps attached.

Also, this (somewhat) related sidebar:


> A 13-year-old American boy campaigning to turn the demilitarized zone between North and South Korea into a peace park tried to get the Chinese president's attention Monday, staging a brief protest near Tiananmen Square before being led away by police.
> 
> Jonathan Lee unfurled a sign saying "peace treaty" and "nuclear free DMZ children's peace forest" as he stood outside Tiananmen Gate just north of the square in central Beijing.
> 
> The scene of numerous demonstrations over the years, the gate and square remain some of the most tightly controlled public spaces in China and all protests on it are quickly snuffed by security agents, sometimes violently. In 1989, tanks and troops rolled into the square to crush a student-led pro-democracy movement, killing at least hundreds of people.
> 
> Less than a minute after Lee began his demonstration, a man presumed to be a plainclothes police officer grabbed the boy's sign and waved away watching journalists, who had been contacted by Lee's family ahead of time. Three or four uniformed police officers then hurriedly escorted Lee and his mother away without commotion ....


Kumbaya, kid.....

Edited to add links to ongoing news updates:

South Korean Yonhap news agency
Official North Korean news service
Google News:  "North Korea"
EMM Explorer:  "North Korea"
EMM Explorer:  "South Korea"
NewsNow:  "Korea"


----------



## tomahawk6

The ROK could use this opportunity to strike key strategic assets in the North or to attack a key Naval base. Since the ROK did not respond to the North's previous attack on a ROK Naval vessel this was viewed as a sign of weakness. The North may also view the US as being weak or distracted this could easily get to a point of no return.


----------



## George Wallace

,,,,,,And who was it who predicted (in another thread) that we may be in Korea next year ?


----------



## Oh No a Canadian

CNN is now reporting two South Korean Marines dead.


----------



## Nemo888

Kick America when she is down. How much is this going to cost? Any more debt and the US will be a banana republic.


----------



## HavokFour

This is not going to end well at all. NK is just asking for a smack down now, and this is a clear act of war.

If the world does nothing about this, we are more or less telling them that they can get away with just about anything with no consequence whatsoever.


----------



## MPwannabe

^
Yep, the US is just one call away from having Hulk Hogan come in and tear into them.
HULKIMANIA RULES

I really doubt anything spectacular will come out of this situation. Do we even know why NK started throwing artillery around in the first place, or is this just more of the same normal NK bull$hit?


----------



## HavokFour

MPwannabe said:
			
		

> ^
> Yep, the US is just one call away from having Hulk Hogan come in and tear into them.
> HULKIMANIA RULES
> 
> I really doubt anything spectacular will come out of this situation. Do we even know why NK started throwing artillery around in the first place, or is this just more of the same normal NK bull$hit?



Do they even need a reason anymore? North Korea does what North Korea wants. This is what happens when we let them get away with their antics.


----------



## George Wallace

HavokFour said:
			
		

> This is not going to end well at all. NK is just asking for a smack down now, and this is a clear act of war.
> 
> If the world does nothing about this, we are more or less telling them that they can get away with just about anything with no consequence whatsoever.



What say every nation state represented in the UN send in one cruise missile to emphasis their point?


----------



## Nemo888

North Korea is feeling ignored. The mass starvation and poverty is destroying the country from the inside. Many South Korean DVD's are getting in now, creating huge political shock waves. The underground railroad is working both ways. NK obviously wants to be spanked for political gain at home. America looks weak. No money, 15 to 20% real unemployment, war on two fronts and a Democratic President. I think reacting would be playing into their hands obviously.

Good warriors do not let their enemies dictate the course of war. Let this slide. We will decide the time and place. Time for more information ops to rot out the regime like a bad tooth.


----------



## Edward Campbell

HavokFour said:
			
		

> Do they even need a reason anymore? North Korea does what North Korea wants. This is what happens when we let them get away with their antics.




They "get away with their antics" because they are China's client and China is, in my opinion, content with situations short of war because China's long term goal is a reunified Korea, under Seoul's democratic-capitalist leadership, but "free' from US "occupation."

Doing *too much* about North Korea's antics risks a land war in Asia - something no sane person in West wants to fight because the prospects of anyone except the Chinese winning it are remote.


----------



## Oh No a Canadian

MPwannabe said:
			
		

> Do we even know why NK started throwing artillery around in the first place, or is this just more of the same normal NK bull$hit?


Well the attack was on a disputed island (south korean but NK thinks/wants it to be theirs) where SK troops were conducting an exercise, I would assume that is as close to a reason we are going to get.


----------



## HavokFour

George Wallace said:
			
		

> What say every nation state represented in the UN send in one cruise missile to emphasis their point?



192 cruise missiles for the 200 or so artillery shells fired seems like a fair trade.


----------



## MPwannabe

Oh No a Canadian said:
			
		

> Well the attack was on a disputed island (south Korean but NK thinks/wants it to be theirs) where SK troops were conducting an exercise, I would assume that is as close to a reason we are going to get.



That's more than enough justification for an attack according to NK...


----------



## FoverF

Hey! Hey _CHINA!!_

Where do you think you're going? 

YOU invited this ***hole to the party!! And when he got slammed and started getting out of hand, you were all like "No no, he's cool, he's not normally like this". Well, he's gone completely off the f***ing handle, he's taking swings at people, and since YOU invited this ***hat to the party, YOU can damn well be the one to kick him out. 

And I don't give a **** if you get a bloody nose doing it. You've got it coming. You vouched for this ****-head, who has done nothing but cause problems for EVERYBODY. He's only here because of you, so you can damn well sort this mess out.


----------



## GrimRX

FoverF said:
			
		

> Hey! Hey _CHINA!!_
> 
> Where do you think you're going?
> 
> YOU invited this ***hole to the party!! And when he got slammed and started getting out of hand, you were all like "No no, he's cool, he's not normally like this". Well, he's gone completely off the f***ing handle, he's taking swings at people, and since YOU invited this ***hat to the party, YOU can damn well be the one to kick him out.
> 
> And I don't give a **** if you get a bloody nose doing it. You've got it coming. You vouched for this ****-head, who has done nothing but cause problems for EVERYBODY. He's only here because of you, so you can damn well sort this mess out.



Hmm, drunken fratboy-ism to International politics.  Amusing yet descriptive.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Canada's PM speaks:


> “This is the latest in a series of aggressive and provocative actions by North Korea, which continue to represent a grave threat to international security and stability in northeast Asia.  Canada will continue to condemn all acts of aggression by North Korea in violation of international law.
> 
> “On behalf of all Canadians, I extend my condolences to the families of those who were killed and injured as a result of this unprovoked attack.
> 
> "Canada reiterates its firm support to the Republic of Korea, and urges North Korea to refrain from further reckless and belligerent actions and to abide by the Korean Armistice Agreement.  Canada remains committed to peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula.
> 
> “Canada announced last month the adoption of a controlled engagement policy, terminating all official bilateral contacts between the government of Canada and the North Korean regime, with the exception of those necessary to address regional security concerns, human rights and the humanitarian situation in North Korea.
> 
> “Canada is a vigorous defender of freedom, democracy, human rights and the rule of law around the world.”


----------



## ltmaverick25

Nauticus said:
			
		

> I see this spiraling out of control rather quickly.



There will be lots of huff and puff about it but in the end little will change.  If anything would have sent things out of control it would have been the sinking of the Chenoan (not sure of spelling).

The reality is, it is still in South Korea's interest to continue with the status quo.  As maddening as these attacks must be to them, should they retaliate, the South Koreans would take heavy civilian casualties due to long range artillery bombardment.

And thats just one consequence...

It would also be economically disastrous to the South.  Furthermore, nobody wants to risk antagonizing China and its not because of China's growing military capability, its because of China's economic influence.  What would happen to South Korean and Western economies if an all out war broke out with North Korea that China was involved in?  It would be an absolute disaster at least in the short term, and that is the only kind of term that liberal democracies are capable of considering...

Militarily speaking, a pissed off and committed West would beat China/North Korea hands down (with great cost mind you) today.  10-15 years from now, that prospect becomes unlikely.  Additionally, it is conceivable that North Korea would be able to attach warheads to missiles by then.  Currently, they cannot.

So in short, I think its going to spiral out of control rather slowly and come to a boiling point in a decade or so... just in time for the West and South Korea to be out of options.


----------



## Nemo888

Kim Jong Un wants us to attack. Things must be getting bad internally. Lets not be his puppet and do what he wants. Lets kick him in the balls instead. Spread a rumour that we poisoned all the Johnny Walker.

Here is a problem from a North Korean grade 1 math book: _"If a grenade kills two Americans and another grenade kills three Americans, how many Americans were killed?"_ The government tells citizens to eat tree bark and grass to supplement their diet, even telling them which ones are edible. They teach that NKorea defeated the Japs in WWII without the USA.  

But the wall of propaganda is starting to fail. The snakeheads(human smugglers) from China and Japan are pushing a booming trade of refugees out and information and luxury goods in. According to recent refugees there is even talk in  NK reg force that stories about the North exporting food to South Korea due to an even larger famine there caused by US imperialists may not even be true. Ten years ago having a "sarcastic tone" when mentioning the fearless leader was a ticket to the Gulags. 

This country is already disintegrating. But reunification would bankrupt South Korea. They are earmarking money in upcoming budgets to fund this eventuality. No one wants to be responsible for this train wreck. The longer we wait the more likely the Nk army dissolves like Iraqi conscripts when the time comes. Hopefully the poison scotch will have done its job by then.


----------



## 57Chevy

George Wallace said:
			
		

> ,,,,,,And who was it who predicted (in another thread) that we may be in Korea next year ?


I am getting this feeling it was you G.W. :camo:


----------



## 57Chevy

Analysis: Why apocalypse won't be now:

Even though the fighting in Korea has all the elements needed to start the next world war - weapons of mass destruction, hostile superpowers, and a failing, nuclear-armed regime - it is improbable that apocalypse is around the corner in East Asia.

South Korea is one of the engines of Asian prosperity, on which the world's hopes of an early economic recovery rest on peace in the region. By attacking Yeonpyeong island, a target of no strategic value, North Korea's dysfunctional regime is telling the world how much pain it could inflict if it isn't bribed to behave itself. It hopes that its sabre rattling will force talks where the West will agree to an aid package in return for a guarantee that Pyongyang will not produce further nuclear weapons. Both sides want wealth, not world war three.

Like other weak but nuclear-armed states, North Korea believes it can use limited conventional-weapons aggression to secure its objectives, since its weapons guarantee it protection from large-scale retaliation that could threaten its existence. The first sign of North Korea's post-nuclear strategy emerged when it sank the South Korean naval corvette Cheonan in March.

The real fear now is that protracted North Korean aggression will push South Korea and Japan to reconsider their long-held taboo on possessing nuclear weapons.

Chang Kwan-Il, South Korea's defence minister, said on Monday that it had no immediate plans to request the U.S. to station tactical nuclear missiles on its soil, to bolster the 28,500 troops stationed there.

Tuesday's events will change that equation. The U.S., aware of hostile Chinese reaction, is unlikely to want to do so. If it refuses, though, its East Asian allies will begin to doubt its willingness to use its nuclear weapons if push comes to shove - and go it alone.

The advanced industrial capabilities of South Korea and Japan mean they are, for all practical purposes, a screwdriver's twist away from actually building one. In February, the U.S. Joint Forces Command admitted that both countries "could quickly build nuclear devices if they chose to do so". South Korea officially ended its nuclear weapons program in 1975, but the International Atomic Energy Agency recently discovered its scientists had continued to work on weapons production technologies.

Even though memories of Hiroshima and Nagasaki still inform public opinion in Japan, conservatives have long called for the country to develop nuclear capabilities. Last year, Shoichi Nakagawa, an influential politician, bluntly said that "it is nuclear that can counteract nuclear".

article link
                            (Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act)


----------



## Jarnhamar

Blizzard Entertainment should just disable Battle.net in North Korea.  Without Starcraft they will come crawling back to sanity.

hey Does North Korea and China have nukes?


----------



## Nauticus

HavokFour said:
			
		

> Do they even need a reason anymore? North Korea does what North Korea wants. This is what happens when we let them get away with their antics.



It's actually not about that at all. South Korea _speculates_ that the North Korean action was in response to a SK military exercise off that island that the NK government protest.


----------



## hold_fast

Grimaldus said:
			
		

> Blizzard Entertainment should just disable Battle.net in North Korea.  Without Starcraft they will come crawling back to sanity.



Last I heard, most of North Korea is without electricity, let alone the internet:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_in_North_Korea

South Korea is the Starcraft Nation.


----------



## bdave

Grimaldus said:
			
		

> Blizzard Entertainment should just disable Battle.net in North Korea.  Without Starcraft they will come crawling back to sanity.
> 
> hey Does North Korea and China have nukes?



KEKEKEKE ZERG RUSH ^______^


----------



## Nemo888

The island in meaningless. Pyonyang wants something. Like the "famine" the last time. The famine that could have been averted if they reduced their defence spending by 1%. AT the time Vietnam owed them a huge sum of money and offered to pay them in rice instead of arms. North Korea refused and blackmailed the USA and China to give food aid.

The troop situation back then was Taiwan, Vietnam, South Korea and Japan had a smaller force than China. If you added North Korea to that equation they had a larger force. They are the balance point in Asian power struggles. The Kim's know this. They are obviously feeling ignored. The only way to stop this is to hurt the elite. They starve their own citizens, even children, to death for small for political gains. Everyone is expendable. Bombing them back is playing into their hands. We need to kill a Kim. Maybe his sister who was just made a general.


----------



## Oh No a Canadian

Grimaldus said:
			
		

> Does North Korea and China have nukes?


yes and yes


----------



## Nemo888

North Korea also has an eight million Zergling(reservist) rush.


----------



## a_majoor

Once again going back to Kaplan provides the best analysis and possible answers to what happens next. 

The best answer in the short term would be to flood the DPRK with information, in the form of cheap disposable radios, DVD players etc. to encourage the regime to rot from the inside. The West should not attempt to offer any food or economic "aid" as a bribe (the probable real reason for the DPRK's behaviour), rather let China carry the burden there. Since China seems pleased to use the DPRK as its cats paw to destabilize the region, placing the DPRK on "ignore" and shifting the economic burden on the Chinese seems the best response. (If we really want to be clever, include the fact that the Chinese supply most of the food and fuel to the DPRK as part of the information package and suggest that Koreans might try going to China for a better life. Let the Chinese deal with several million refugees and they might not be so eager to stir the pot elsewhere).


----------



## Jarnhamar

hold_fast said:
			
		

> Last I heard, most of North Korea is without electricity, let alone the internet:
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_in_North_Korea



Deception plan, thats all.



			
				Oh No a Canadian said:
			
		

> yes and yes


Okay, forget scaring them with nukes.




			
				Nemo888 said:
			
		

> North Korea also has an eight million Zergling(reservist) rush.



No problem.
We'll just offer to feed them (and apparently let them play SC) and they will defect to the south.


----------



## trampbike

http://www.korea-dpr.com/forum/



> On 23nd of November at 1300 local time the South Korean fired shots inside the Northern Limit Line, towards DPRK.  At 1434 upon receiving the order from the Supreme Command of the Korean People’s Army, we returned fire against the South Korean attackers based in the military camp of Yongpyong.
> 
> The answer against the South Korean provocation shows that DPRK honour its promise as stated before and announced in KCNA that any aggression against the North will be met with material response.
> 
> The DPRK does not expect Lee Myung-Bak and his clique nor the US to continue escalating the conflict as it is demonstrated that DPRK has the superior power and will not bow down to the imperialist who try to stifle and isolate the DPRK.
> 
> The DPRK urges South Korea and USA to renounce its current hardline anti-DPRK sentiment and resume the peace talk on a respectful one to one dialogue.



It's quite the website...  :
http://www.korea-dpr.com/


----------



## The Bread Guy

trampbike said:
			
		

> It's quite the website...  :
> http://www.korea-dpr.com/


Hey, are you dissing the golf shirts available at the swag shop?
http://www.cafepress.ca/kfashop






Meanwhile, "uh leettle mo' "1 here from the PRK official news agency:


> .... The south Korean puppet group perpetrated such reckless military provocation as firing dozens of shells inside the territorial waters of the DPRK side around Yonphyong Islet in the West Sea of Korea from 13:00 on Nov. 23 despite the repeated warnings of the DPRK while staging the war maneuvers for a war of aggression on it codenamed Hoguk, escalating the tension on the Korean Peninsula.
> 
> The above-said military provocation is part of its sinister attempt to defend the brigandish "northern limit line," while frequently infiltrating its naval warships into the territorial waters of the DPRK side under the pretext of "intercepting fishing boats."
> 
> The revolutionary armed forces of the DPRK standing guard over the inviolable territorial waters of the country took such decisive military step as reacting to the military provocation of the puppet group with a prompt powerful physical strike.
> 
> It is a traditional mode of counter-action of the army of the DPRK to counter the firing of the provocateurs with merciless strikes.
> 
> Should the south Korean puppet group dare intrude into the territorial waters of the DPRK even 0.001 mm, the revolutionary armed forces of the DPRK will unhesitatingly continue taking merciless military counter-actions against it.
> 
> It should bear in mind the solemn warning of the revolutionary armed forces of the DPRK that they do not make an empty talk.
> 
> There is in the West Sea of Korea only the maritime military demarcation line set by the DPRK.



In other block-buster North Korean news, "Kim Jong Il Inspects Newly Built Soy Sauce Shop at Ryongsong" (I'm not making this up).

More of this kind of thing here in English:
http://www.kcna.co.jp/index-e.htm

1 - From this fine satirical classic.


----------



## trampbike

You've got to love such accurate information (found here: http://www.korea-dpr.com/reunification.htm):



> Korea is an independent and sovereign state, but the South is still controlled by the
> imperialist interests and the U.S. troops .If any South Korean citizen tries to visit North Korea crossing the big concrete wall, he'll be killed by the american soldiers. The 'Security Law' in South Korea forbides to any South Korean citizen to talk or read about the North or else he'll be punished with jail or even death penalty.


----------



## Trueblue

I think something has to be done, *now.*

Even in the event that the country just "dissolves" as many here put it (not saying it won't happen) without a serious presence in the country beforehand it would be way too easy for nuclear weapons to go missing and end up in god knows whose hands.


----------



## aesop081

Trueblue said:
			
		

> I think something has to be done, *now.*



Sure.

Do what ?

Whos going to do it ?

No one has the desire to invade the place and be responsible for sorting that mess out. China has no desire to share a border with a large US presence. The South has everything to lose if a war was to break out.

Status quo, with all the occasional sabre rattling, works for everyone. Nothing's happenning anytime soon.


----------



## Edward Campbell

It seems to me that China is waiting and seeing - and the deployment of a US aircraft carrier battle group will be precisely what China does not want to see.

The Chinese were very, very vocal about US carriers this summer – the local media (newspapers and TV) were full of it. The Chinese government, which controls the major news sources, will tell the people that the USA is threatening China with nuclear weapons in Chinese waters. The USA will protest that the accusation is false but the Chinese people will believe their own government, not Washington.

The insertion of the carrier, which is, probably about the minimum response available to Obama, is too much response for Beijing. China can, and when it suits it, will reign in the North Koreans – it will do so because it values South Korea far more than it values North Korea. But, for the moment, the North Koreans are causing problems for the USA, not for China. From the Chinese point of view nothing much is wrong.

What is “wrong,” for the Chinese, is a war in Asia. The Chinese cannot see how adding a huge, powerful, US carrier battle group to the South China Sea makes that war less likely. They, the Chinese, will, I guess sit on their hands and allow the situation to fester. Remember the Chinese *strategic aim*: all American military forces out of Korea, then Korean reunification, with the Seoul leadership in charge of a democratic, capitalist nation, and the newly unified Korea firmly in China's _sphere of influence_.


----------



## Nemo888

The Soviet Union has dissolved. Russia and China have embraced capitalism.  The cold war is over. 

Why do we still have spend so many resources protecting theses countries? I don't see how Korea, Taiwan and Japan making us pay for their defence is in our interest. Why don't we go home or start sending a monthly bill in the mail? China is America's biggest trading partner, not some evil enemy. This is seems like a silly hold over kept in place by now meaningless habit and propaganda. NKorea shelled SKorea. I really don't give a $^!^. I'm not Korean. I'm actually getting tired of being ripped off by these untaxed protectorates.


----------



## vorden

The cold war may be declared over, but China is a large threat to the states economically.


----------



## Nemo888

vorden said:
			
		

> The cold war may be declared over, but China is a large threat to the states economically.



You have it backwards. The trade imbalance is 5 to 1. China would collapse without 300 BILLION annual US imports. The USA could also devalue their currency again, decimating the Chinese economy. What can China do?

Korea does stir up  my old Cold War programming. I'd love to kill a commie for mommy. Bur reality has changed no? The Koreans need to stop making the USA spend billions on their defence.


----------



## aesop081

Nemo888 said:
			
		

> Why don't we go home



Isolationism really worked well in the past eh ?



> I'm not Korean.



So no matter what country or who it happens to , no matter what, if they are not Canadian, you don't give a crap ?



> I'm actually getting tired of being ripped off by these untaxed protectorates.



I'm getting tired of oxygen thieves who don't have the intellectual capacity to understand that events around the world affect us all. We can either have influence in things that have strategic interest to us or we can just sit back and suffer the consequences.


----------



## Edward Campbell

vorden said:
			
		

> The cold war may be declared over, but China is a large threat to the states economically.




China is one of the USA's main creditors; the two are in a symbiotic relationship. While China does, particularly, wish the USA well it wishes it no harm, either.

China seeks its own, special, place in the world - which it does not view quite the same way as we. The Chinese expect to be respected for their power - of all sorts,and  for both their culture and, especially, their _civilization_ which they regard as being, in every way, superior to that of all others. The classical Western _power_ relationships have never much impressed the Chinese; Alexander the Great and Julius Caesar are not seen to be "great" because whatever they conquered or built did  not last.

The British impressed the Chinese in the 19th century; it was interesting and instructive that a tiny island could rule a global empire built and maintained, primarily, on trade rather than conventional (barbaric) military power. But, as the Chinese learned, the military power existed and could be unleashed quickly and effectively (ruthlessly).

The Chinese were impressed by the Americans for, above all, their _creativity_ in all things. I say they _were_ impressed because my sense is that most educated Chinese regard the USA as a huge, blind, stumbling giant - powerful and dangerous but without _vision_, without an aim.


----------



## Nemo888

How do we afford this?  Why can't the Koreans pay for their own defence or at least pay us what it costs? What are we gaining in Asia now that the Cold War is over? Do you want troops in Somalia and Darfur as well? They actually need our help.
Aviator personal insults are your strong suit. Most likely indicating your arguments have no meaningful substance. The old reasons why we went there are gone. You say to have "influence". Is expensive military influence serving our best interest or theirs? I think it might be theirs. We are 54 billion dollars in the hole for this single year. About 1800$ per person. Defending rich countries that should defend themselves needs to be put on the table.


----------



## aesop081

Nemo888 said:
			
		

> What are we gaining in Asia now that the Cold War is over?



Pardon ? We have no economic interests in Asia ?




> Do you want troops in Somalia and Darfur as well?



No. I personaly do not. That does not mean that, as a nation, we do not have interest in doing so.



> We are 54 billion dollars in the hole for this single year. About 1800$ per person. Defending places that should defend themselves needs to be put on the table.



Have you bothered to ask yourself why we are in the hole all that money ? Have you bothered to ask yourself if this is related in any way to our involvement in Asian security matters ? Did you even bother to ask if we contribute anything major to Asian security ?

I want you to show me exactly how much of that 54 billion deficit is caused by Asian security participation ........


----------



## Nemo888

Afghanistan is technically Asia.

Why are economic interests synonymous with military ones? What are (NATO or the USA's) goals in Asia with a military presence? Is it worth the effort? Can economic and diplomatic means be more effective? Are countries like Japan and Korea screwing us into paying for their defence while giving very little in return?

I'll even give you some of those possible long term goals.
-Protecting Australia.
-Base of Operations in the region.
-Indonesia has the Muslim worlds strongest Army. Be nice to keep an eye on them. They may make moves on the Philippines again. They haven't stopped stirring up fundamentalism in the region.


----------



## aesop081

Nemo888 said:
			
		

> Afghanistan is technically Asia.



Sure. We can play that game if you wish.



> Why are economic interests synonymous with military ones?



Stability is great when one wants the economy to work well.



> Are countries like Japan and Korea screwing us into paying for their defence while giving very little in return?



Yes, Japan is screwing us. They spend a metric shyte ton more on defence than Canada does and they are screwing us.


----------



## Nemo888

CDN Aviator said:
			
		

> Sure. We can play that game if you wish.
> 
> Stability is great when one wants the economy to work well.
> 
> Yes, Japan is screwing us. They spend a metric shyte ton more on defence than Canada does and they are screwing us.


0.8% of GDP ? Really?
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ja.html

We are 126 in defence spending. Japan is 149. 

You don't seem knowledgeable or open minded enough to waste time on.


----------



## bdave

CDN Aviator said:
			
		

> Sure.
> 
> Do what ?
> 
> Whos going to do it ?
> 
> No one has the desire to invade the place and be responsible for sorting that mess out. China has no desire to share a border with a large US presence. The South has everything to lose if a war was to break out.
> 
> Status quo, with all the occasional sabre rattling, works for everyone. Nothing's happenning anytime soon.



Hit them fast and hard?
Would we be able to attack without causing thousands and thousands of civilian deaths?


----------



## FoverF

Nemo888 said:
			
		

> 0.8% of GDP ? Really?
> https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ja.html
> 
> We are 126 in defence spending. Japan is 149.
> 
> You don't seem knowledgeable or open minded enough to waste time on.



Ummmm...

Japan spends much more money on their military than we do. They are also in the process of building a PAC-3 -based missile defence system to protect largely against NK missiles.

We contribute essentially nothing to east asian security. 

Oh, and in case you forgot, Japan basically paid for pretty much all of Desert Storm/Shield. 

I don't get why you think 'we' are somehow getting ripped off? How much money do you think  Canada is contributing to the defence of est asia against North Korean aggression? How the heck do you think 'we' are getting screwed into paying for Japan and Korea's defence?


----------



## Jager

Nemo888 said:
			
		

> 0.8% of GDP ? Really?
> https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ja.html
> 
> We are 126 in defence spending. Japan is 149.
> 
> You don't seem knowledgeable or open minded enough to waste time on.



Just because your comment sparked my interest:

Japan
Defense Budget 0.8% of GDP (2006)
Annual GDP $4.15 trillion (2009 est.)
So, lets say the Defense budget is still 0.8% of the GDP approximately 3.32 Billion (give or take)
Now for the actual Budget: Revenues: 1.756 Trillion, expenditures: 2.145 Trillion (2009 est.) , so approximately 0.16% of what the government actually spends goes into Defense spending.

Canada
Defense Budget 1.1% of GDP (2005 est.)
Annual GDP $1.279 trillion (2009 est.)
So, lets say the Defense budget is still 1.1% of the GDP approximately 14.068 Billion(give or take)

Now for the actual Budget: Revenues: 521.6 Billion, :expenditures: $578.7 billion (2009 est.). So approximately 2.44% of what the government actually spends goes into Defense spending

I'm not 100% sure that my math is perfect but I think my rough calculations using the site listed in my quote these are the numbers. As that site doesn't take into consideration a lot of things, I'm not sure that its an accurate picture

As for the comment about CDN Aviator not being open minded enough, I believe that the personal attack was not warranted. 



			
				CDN Aviator said:
			
		

> <snip>
> Stability is great when one wants the economy to work well.
> <snip>



CDN Aviator is correct when he states that "Stability is great when one wants the economy to work well", a standing military in peace time is important, just as a military is important in war time, but for different reasons. Without a military, most country's (not all though) would be walked all over, loose the ability to control their own national interests, etc




			
				FoverF said:
			
		

> Ummmm...
> 
> Japan spends much more money on their military than we do. They are also in the process of building a PAC-3 -based missile defence system to protect largely against NK missiles.
> 
> We contribute essentially nothing to east asian security.
> 
> Oh, and in case you forgot, Japan basically paid for pretty much all of Desert Storm/Shield.
> 
> I don't get why you think 'we' are somehow getting ripped off? How much money do you think  Canada is contributing to the defence of est asia against North Korean aggression? How the heck do you think 'we' are getting screwed into paying for Japan and Korea's defence?



Good point, where do you (Nemo888) get the idea that Canada is contributing money towards the defense of Japan, or South Korea, etc? I am as of yet unable to find any numbers, or indication that we are dumping money into that area for defense

Anyways, thats my 2c for what its worth


----------



## tabernac

Nemo888 said:
			
		

> 0.8% of GDP ? Really?
> https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ja.html
> We are 126 in defence spending. Japan is 149.


Dude, you got it all wrong. Zimbabwe, at 3.8% GDP, is spending more than both Canada and Japan!  :

The percentages of GDP expenditure do not mean a damn thing. 

Let me give you a quick lesson. In international relations, hard power (as opposed to soft power a la McDonald's) is primarily derived from military strength (gunboat/battleship/carrier group diplomacy). Empirically, the only way to measure military strength is to follow the money.

In 2008, Japan spent 46.2 Billion USD on defence, fully 0.9% of their GDP. In the same year, Canada spent 19.2 Billion USD, accounting for 1.3% of our GDP.

The only fact that matters is real dollars spent.

These numbers were taken from Stockholm International Peace Research Institue.

Those crafty Rhodesians Zimbabweyans with their lofty 3.8% only actually spend a comparatively negligible amount of what Canada does. The data is unavailable on SIPRI due to the super-hyper inflation of Mugabe dollars, which are worth less than their weight in paper.



			
				Nemo888 said:
			
		

> You don't seem knowledgeable or open minded enough to waste time on.


HA! That's rich coming from you. I'm above ad hominem attacks.

Edit: Fo' clarity, bru.


----------



## aesop081

Nemo888 said:
			
		

> You don't seem knowledgeable or open minded enough to waste time on.



Yeah, obviously, my math was out to lunch. Me working with the JMSDF 3 times in the last 5 years (last time in Japan itself) has shown me that they dont need us (Canada) for their defence. I guess that having a working modern sub fleet, more P-3 at a single base than we have in the entire military, multiple types of fighter aircraft, attack hellicopters........was enough to fool me into thinking that they took their own defence a bit more seriously than we do.


----------



## Nemo888

Actually I thought of one great reason why NATO/America  should be there. Stopping nuclear proliferation. If we pulled out and gave all defence back to the host countries one of the first things they would have to do is make their own nuclear deterrents. Long term this would be a grave error.


----------



## Brasidas

bdave said:
			
		

> Hit them fast and hard?
> Would we be able to attack without causing thousands and thousands of civilian deaths?



No. Seoul's within range of thousands of artillery pieces. As soon as bombs start falling from the air, more guns are going to be dropping shells on 12 million people than planes are going to be able to take out in the first hours of the war.

Link on Seoul-artillery proximity.


----------



## 57Chevy

N.Korea warns of more strikes, blames US as carrier heads in:

SEOUL, (AFP) - North Korea on Thursday blamed the South and the US for provoking its artillery bombardment and warned it was ready to strike again, as a US carrier headed in for war games off the tense peninsula.

World powers agonised over how to deal with the volatile and nuclear-armed communist regime over its attack on a Yellow Sea island, in what one veteran North Korea watcher labelled a diplomatic "problem from hell".

Isolated North Korea charged in a statement that "the US can never evade responsibility for the recent exchange of fire", which saw four people killed when Pyongyang’s forces shelled the island in disputed waters on Tuesday.

"If the warmongering South Korean puppets fail to return to their senses and commit another reckless military provocation, our army will carry out second and third rounds of powerful physical retaliatory strikes without hesitation."

The warning came as the US and South Korean navies plan to hold a four-day naval exercise in the Yellow Sea from Sunday that will involve a strike group headed by aircraft carrier the USS George Washington.

Although the show of allied maritime firepower had been scheduled well before this week’s attacks, the US military said, it would also demonstrate the US "commitment to regional stability through deterrence".

South Korea also said Thursday it would "sharply increase military forces, including ground troops, on the five islands in the Yellow Sea and allocate more of its budget toward dealing with North Korea’s asymmetrical threats".

Enraged by the first shelling of its civilians since the 1950-53 Korean War, South Korea was still counting the cost of the attack on Yeonpyeong island, which lies near the tense post-war sea demarcation line.

The explosions that shattered the calm of the remote islet killed two marines and two civilians, wounded 18 others, left 22 buildings in charred ruins and sent hundreds of terrified residents fleeing to the mainland.

Newspapers have called for revenge against the "mad dog" regime, protesters have burnt North Korea’s flag, and some politicians have berated President Lee Myung-Bak for not responding forcefully enough when the South returned fire.

US President Barack Obama has pledged to stand "shoulder to shoulder" with ally South Korea, where 28,500 American troops are stationed, facing off across a Cold War era frontier against the regime run by "Dear Leader" Kim Jong-Il.

The world has often been baffled by the regime ruling impoverished North Korea, which has staged two nuclear tests, fired missiles over Japan and this month showed off to a US academic a modern new nuclear facility.

Many observers believe Tuesday’s attack was meant to highlight the military credentials of the leader-in-waiting — Kim’s little-known 27-year-old son Kim Jong-Un, who two months ago took a key military post.

The opaque nature of the regime, and its history of brinkmanship, has left world powers at a loss at how to deal with Pyongyang — a problem vastly compounded by divisions within the international community.

North Korea has also rejected a proposal by the US-led United Nations Command, which supervises the armistice, to hold military talks on the attack, Yonhap news agency reported citing a South Korean defence official.

While the US, European powers, South Korea and Japan have long pushed hard to sanction the regime, China and Russia have favoured a softer line with Pyongyang, a Cold War era ally and neighbour to both.

When an intergovernmental expert panel found that a North Korean submarine in March torpedoed and sank a South Korean corvette the Cheonan, killing all 46 sailor aboard, China refused to blame the Pyongyang regime.

Premier Wen Jiabao said in Moscow that "China is firmly committed to maintaining the peace and stability of the Korean peninsula and opposes any provocative military acts".

It was not clear whether Wen was referring to the North Korean shelling or to the planned US-South Korean military exercises. Beijing has bitterly opposed similar war games there in the past.

North Korea expert Peter Beck, with the US think tank the Council on Foreign Relations, said: "In the wake of the Cheonan sinking, Beijing showed us that they are more than willing to put up with Pyongyang’s worst behaviour."

"Given that this incident brings us closer to the brink of war than the Cheonan, Beijing might conclude that enough is enough and quietly put their foot down, but I am not holding my breath."

The Gazette article link
                          (Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act)


----------



## NSDreamer

57Chevy said:
			
		

> N.Korea warns of more strikes, blames US as carrier heads in:
> 
> "Given that this incident brings us closer to the brink of war than the Cheonan, Beijing might conclude that enough is enough and quietly put their foot down, but I am not holding my breath."



  Somehow I get the feeling that NK would just get more belligerent if China 'put their foot down' even considering how heavily they depend on them...


----------



## Edward Campbell

Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from the _Globe and Mail_, is veteran Canadian diplomat Derek Burney's take on the Korean dilemma:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/opinion/only-china-can-tame-north-korea/article1813981/ 


> Only China can tame North Korea
> DEREK BURNEY
> From Friday's Globe and Mail
> 
> North Korea’s penchant for irrational military strikes against South Korea is similar to the antics of a schoolyard bully. Intimidation and the use of force to compel obeisance or, better still, economic benefit has worked well for North Korea before. It should not be surprising to see this movie again, even though this is the first time since the Korean War that North Korea has attacked land-based targets. That is an alarming escalation of all too typical provocative behaviour by North Korea. The West responds with strong words while Pyongyang knowingly relies on the unflinching support of its neighbour, China.
> 
> The attack on the South Korean island of Yeonpyeong comes in the wake of reports from the former director of the Los Alamos National Laboratory, Siegfried Hecker, that North Korea’s march to nuclear weapons status is accelerating. Persistent efforts by the six-party negotiators to contain North Korea’s nuclear ambitions, and its equally nefarious habit of selling sensitive nuclear materials to the likes of Iran and Myanmar, are proving to be futile.
> 
> Just like the schoolyard bully, North Korea pockets the rewards from attempts to negotiate but adamantly and openly refuses to change its behaviour. Talk is no antidote to blatant aggression.
> 
> Whether the latest attack is yet another bait-and-switch or “provoke for reward” tactic or a means to prop up the newly designated and, except by heredity, completely unqualified successor to Pyongyang’s Dear Leader is not important. More critical is what North Korea’s neighbours, notably China, will do to contain and pressure better behaviour.
> 
> The United States and Japan have limited if not diminishing means of effective response. South Korea, because it is much more economically advanced, is far more vulnerable to sporadic attacks. North Korea, with an economy that is virtually dormant and a population that is mired in abject poverty, has less to lose. The North does have a mighty military, the backbone of its totalitarian regime. But it has little fear of military retaliation, given the limp reaction to previous attacks.
> 
> No one wants military hostilities to escalate, but nor should North Korea’s irrational action be rewarded, as it has been in the past. China’s priority has for too long been ostensibly to prevent the collapse of the North Korean regime and the potential flood of refugees into China.
> 
> The threat North Korea’s provocations pose to instability in Northeast Asia and to nuclear proliferation on a global scale should command greater concern. China alone provides or facilitates virtually all of the foreign goods needed to sustain a meagre life for most North Koreans, along with luxuries for those who rule. If China genuinely wants to demonstrate that it can play a role as a responsible global power, commensurate with its rising economic strength, it should do more than urge others to re-engage the six-party discussions with the two Koreas, Russia, China, Japan and the United States. A public wringing of hands will have little effect in yet another fruitless round of negotiation.
> 
> China should, instead, exercise its tangible influence to rectify the erratic antics of its neighbour. No more bribes, no more blandishments, no more circular diplomacy. It is time to tame the bully with leverage only China is able to exercise.
> 
> _Derek H. Burney, senior strategic adviser to Ogilvy Renault and senior research fellow at the Canadian Defence and Foreign Affairs Institute, was Canada’s ambassador to the Republic of Korea from 1978 to 1980._




While I agree with Burney that:

a. DPRK is acting like a typical schoolyard bully; and

b. The USA and Japan have 'limited' responses available.

I do not agree that _”flee or fight”_ are the only options for them. In this particular case they have another option: *isolate* North Korea – refuse even the most basic contacts: no food aid, despite the fact (and it is a fact) that North Koreans are starving; no nuclear negotiations, except a dire and firmly delivered warning that a nuclear attack by DPRK on anyone, anywhere will result in the absolute, total and complete obliteration of North Korea, despite the consequences for its neighbours who are, also, America's allies; no more UN truce talks; and so on.

China may or may not be inclined to reign in North Korea. China is playing a longer game but isolating the DPRK – in effect making the _Korean card_ valueless in the 'game' – may provoke the Chinese into doing something positive to preserve its important commercial ties with South Korea which is, after all, the _prize_ the Chinese are trying to 'win.'


----------



## George Wallace

North Korea is the most sanctioned nation on the planet.  So far all the embargos still hasn't stopped them.   Bringing China onside may be the only answer.


----------



## Edward Campbell

George Wallace said:
			
		

> North Korea is the most sanctioned nation on the planet.  So far all the embargos still hasn't stopped them.   Bringing China onside may be the only answer.




That's because we keep talking to and about them and, despite the sanctions, we (countries other than China) keep sending food and medicine.


----------



## Brasidas

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> That's because we keep talking to and about them and, despite the sanctions, we (countries other than China) keep sending food and medicine.



Is cutting off food really going to make their regime more reasonable? I'd think it'd have a good chance of resolving things in short order, but I wouldn't want to be a policy maker who pushed this solution if it gets resolved with a hell of a lot of blood.


----------



## Edward Campbell

Brasidas said:
			
		

> Is cutting off food really going to make their regime more reasonable? I'd think it'd have a good chance of resolving things in short order, but I wouldn't want to be a policy maker who pushed this solution if it gets resolved with a hell of a lot of blood.




That is a very good point, but doing what we've been doing hasn't produced any desirable results, so ...


----------



## Rifleman62

How about a world wide *consumer* boycott of Chinese goods for one week to show the Chinese that the world knows who has control over NK? Governments can state the action is their citizens voting with their wallets. 

Surely union workers and their families can do without Wally Mart for seven days!


----------



## MPwannabe

On Black Friday? That's blasphemy.


----------



## tomahawk6

The PRC wants Washington to turn the USS George Washington around.

http://www.businessinsider.com/china-us-korea-war-drill-2010-11?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+businessinsider+%28Business+Insider%29#ixzz16PAbXWRS

China has warned against military activity near its coastline ahead of U.S.-Korea naval exercises, according to Reuters.


China's Foreign Ministry said in an online posting that naval exercises risks starting a war: "We oppose any military act by any party conducted in China's exclusive economic zone without approval."

North Korea has also threatened to respond to military gestures with more attacks: "The situation on the Korean peninsula is inching closer to the brink of war due to the reckless plan of those trigger-happy elements to stage again war exercises targeted against the (North)."

If this sounds familiar, it's because the same thing happened after the Cheonan shipwreck. America sent some warships to join in naval exercises, China was outraged, and America yielded and moved the exercises primarily to a more distant location.

China wants peace. The only problem with Pax China is that it includes little protection for South Korea against the next surprise attack from Pyongyang.


----------



## Brasidas

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> The PRC wants Washington to turn the USS George Washington around.
> 
> http://www.businessinsider.com/china-us-korea-war-drill-2010-11?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+businessinsider+%28Business+Insider%29#ixzz16PAbXWRS
> 
> China's Foreign Ministry said in an online posting that naval exercises risks starting a war: "We oppose any military act by any party conducted in China's exclusive economic zone without approval."



Didn't know that South Korea and it's territorial waters were within "China's exclusive economic zone". Do the South Koreans know that?


----------



## aesop081

Brasidas said:
			
		

> Didn't know that South Korea and it's territorial waters were within "China's exclusive economic zone". Do the South Koreans know that?



I think you will find that what one country claims as its EEZ is often not what the other countries around it consider the EEZ to be. This perticular region has several long-standing disputes with regards to waterspace. Even teritorial waters are sometimes disputed depending on the methodology used to measure them. I'm not sure where exactly this exercise is being held but it may not even be inside Sout Korea's TTW.


----------



## Jarnhamar

Brasidas said:
			
		

> Is cutting off food really going to make their regime more reasonable?



yes.
Starving soldiers don't fight very well.
Starving civilians don't behave very well.

Both make invading another country difficult.


----------



## GAP

New Korean war could involve Canada, federal documents suggest
http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/canada/breakingnews/new-korean-war-could-involve-canada-federal-documents-suggest-110880524.html
By: Mike Blanchfield, The Canadian Press Posted: 26/11/2010 

OTTAWA - If war breaks out on the Korean peninsula, Canada could become embroiled due to a half-century-old United Nations military alliance, federal documents reveal.

Canada's military obligations in the volatile region are outlined in a briefing note prepared for Defence Minister Peter MacKay shortly after North Korea detonated a nuclear device last year.

The note by the Defence Department's policy branch, which was obtained by The Canadian Press, says the UN alliance could be used to generate an international fighting force if war erupts.

North Korea ratcheted up its war rhetoric Friday following its deadly artillery barrage of a South Korean island Tuesday.

Because Canada was one of the combatants in the Korean War, it became part of an organization known as the United Nations Command — or UNC — following the 1953 armistice that ended three years of war between North and South Korea.

"Recent tensions have caused ADM (Pol) to review Canada's military obligations on the Korean peninsula if armed hostilities were to erupt," the memo reads.

"The UNC structure would be used as a means of force-generating and receiving and tasking any contributions that UNC Sending States may choose to contribute in the event of a crisis."

Canada was one 16 countries that took part in fighting the Korean War and all signed the July 27, 1953, armistice that paused three years of hostilities. North and South Korea have remained technically at war since then, but the armistice has been supervised by a UN military commission along the 243-kilometre long Demilitarized Zone between the two countries.

As the briefing note outlines, the main "fighting formation" that would take the lead in any new conflict is the joint United States-South Korea Combined Forces Command. But that joint command "includes under its strategic organizational umbrella the legacy United Nations Command (UNC)."

Canada remains a member of the UNC because it was one of the 15 "Sending States" that supplied troops to the Korean conflict, the memo says.

Paul Evans, the director of the Institute of Asian Research at University of British Columbia, said he doesn't believe the current situation will become a full-blown military crisis. If it does, he said, "it would be difficult to use the UNC structure in the event of a conflict except as an initial advice."

That's because the UN's role would be minimized by fact that Russia and China wield vetoes as permanent members of the all-powerful Security Council, said Evans.

"I have a hunch that the UN role, whatever its formalities are now through the military commission and other things, are likely to be superseded almost immediately by a coalition of the willing that would be led by the United States and South Korea."
More on link


----------



## George Wallace

Looks like North Korea is looking for a fight, and will not stop trying to provoke one:



Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act.

*N. Korea threatens retaliation if war games go on*
27/11/2010 11:19:19 AM

CTV.ca News Staff 

LINK 

*North Korea warns of retaliation if the United States and South Korea go ahead with naval exercises in the Yellow Sea. *

The four-day military exercise is slated to begin on Sunday, but the two Koreas used strong language Saturday to suggest more violence is possible. 

Resentment between the two sides has grown since Tuesday, when North Korea launched a missile onto the small fishing island of Yeonpyeong that claimed the lives of South Korean two marines and two civilians. 

Protesters took their anger to the streets of the South Korean capital of Seoul on Saturday, not long after a national public funeral was held for the two slain marines. During the funeral, a military commander said "they will take the anger and hostility in their bones and strike back at North Korea," CTV's Janis Mackey Frayer told CTV News Channel Saturday during a telephone interview from Yeonpyeong. 

"There's been a ramping up in the sharp words from both sides over the last few days. The latest from Pyongyang is that North Korean leaders are vowing a sea of fire if their territory is breached and if the U.S and South Korea go ahead with these joint military exercises, they should be seeing unpardonable provocation," Mackey Frayer said. 

Mackey Frayer also noted that the South Korean President, Lee Myung-bak, said he was going to review the rules of engagement and agreed that in the past, South Korea had been too passive when it comes to acts of aggression by North Korea. He cited the sinking of a South Korean military warship in March, where a North Korean torpedo was responsible for killing 46 sailors, according to a South-Korean led investigation. 

Both the U.S. and South Korea have been urging China, North Korea's closest ally, to use its influence to help moderate the situation. Though China has assured it will do its best to ease tensions, the joint military exercise by the two countries is causing unease in Beijing. 

On Friday, North Korea used a burst of artillery fire to signal its fury with South Korea and the U.S. North Korea warned the conditions brewing in the Korea peninsula have pushed it to the "brink of war." 

The flash of artillery fire could be heard in Yeonpyeong. 

Only a few dozen South Koreans have stayed behind on the island, which lies just 11 kilometres from the shores of North Korea. They ran to shelters after seeing the faraway flash of artillery. 

The artillery fire did not hit any South Korean targets, though it was launched while U.S. Gen. Walter Sharp was touring the part of Yeonpyeong that came under attack. 

The commander of the 28,000 U.S. troops stationed in South Korea called out the North Korean regime for violating the armistice that ended the Korean War in 1953. 

"We at the United Nations Command will investigate this completely and call on North Korea to stop any future attacks," Sharp said Friday. 

But in North Korea, Pyongyang's government insisted that the U.S. was an aggressor, by stating an intention to take part in the joint military drills with South Korea in disputed waters. 

A North Korean military official bragged about the Tuesday attack in which the military "precisely aimed and hit the enemy artillery base." 

The official also made reference to a possible forthcoming "shower of dreadful fire." 

In South Korea, more troops and better weapons were being deployed to the island, while the president and his government tried to pin down their next move against the unpredictable and defiant North Korea regime. 

While the U.S. has sent a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier to the Yellow Sea to take part in the exercises with South Korea, there seem to be few options for cooling things down with North Korea. 

As a result, South Korea and the U.S. are leaning on China to help drop the temperature of the feverish resentment that is building up in North Korea. 

China is a rare source of influence on North Korea and Chinese state media announced Friday that Beijing's foreign minister had met with the North Korean ambassador. 

With files from The Associated Press


More on LINK.


----------



## Old Sweat

I think the North Korean regime is betting that the US and South Korea will cave again. The standard pattern is for them both to ask for negotiations and pony up some Danegeld for the North. The North has no intention of taking any negotiations seriously, but will talk for a while and then walk away. As long as "we" continue to appease them and the Chinese keep a fairly loose rein, we will see the process repeated indefinitely.

Having said all that, I am notoriously poor at predicting the future which is why I dabble in history. I have got pretty good at predicting the past.

Maybe it's time to start the refresher course in Korean war era Canadian army slang.

skosh - a little from (from skoshi, Japanese for a little)


----------



## a_majoor

We will see more of this:

http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/more-south-koreans-will-die-maybe-americans-too/?singlepage=true



> *More South Koreans Will Die. Maybe Americans Too*
> North Korea is predictable. It will continue to kill.
> November 26, 2010 - by Gordon G. Chang
> 
> 
> North Korea shelled Yeonpyeong, an island administered by Seoul, on Tuesday. Four died. Two of them were civilians.
> 
> What does every analyst say about the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea? That it is unpredictable. Yes, Pyongyang can surprise us, but it’s more precise to say that the North follows its own logic. And North Korean logic dictated that its leader would launch another deadly attack. The only things we did not know were where that assault would take place and when it would occur.
> 
> And how did we know another gruesome incident was almost certain? Kim Jong Il, North Korea’s leader, promotes his songun, or “military first,” politics. “Military first” means exactly what it says and maybe even a bit more. Kim’s regime not only begins with the army, it ends with the army.
> 
> His boast — “My power comes from the military” — accurately identifies the source of his current strength. In a country of about 23 million souls, there are around 1.2 million active-duty soldiers, sailors, and pilots and perhaps as many as 8.2 million reservists. North Korea has — by far — the highest percentage of its population in uniform.
> 
> As the Wall Street Journal’s Evan Ramstad notes, the central problem stemming from Kim’s military-first politics is that the government’s legitimacy is dependent on military success. And because no one is attacking the North at this moment — in fact, no country has ever launched an unprovoked attack on that miserable state — Chairman Kim feels the need to initiate deadly incidents. Therefore, he ordered the torpedo attack on the Cheonan, a South Korean frigate, this March — 46 deaths — and the shelling of Yeonpyeong this week. He will order more assaults unless he is stopped.
> 
> Unfortunately, neither the United States nor South Korea is bent on doing so. Both of them are afraid of provoking Kim and triggering wider conflict on the Korean peninsula. What was President Lee Myung-bak’s first command at an emergency meeting following the shelling on Tuesday? Ramstad reports that an aide said it was “make sure this doesn’t escalate.”
> 
> In fact, on Tuesday President Lee warned of “enormous retaliation” the next time North Korea strikes the South. But Seoul talked of “stern countermeasures” after the sinking of the Cheonan eight months ago and did nothing. On Tuesday, Lee declared North Korea’s “indiscriminate attack on civilians can never be tolerated.” But he is in fact tolerating the attack on civilians, taking no steps other than issuing strong words.
> 
> If President Lee releases hollow statements, it is because he is the leader of a country that is deeply afraid of the North and which is determined to avoid conflict.  Moreover, about half of the electorate — the so-called “progressives” — are sympathetic to the North due to the kinship of “blood,” so Lee is trying to appease South Korean voters as well as North Korean aggressors.
> 
> “The question for South Korea is how much more serious can these attacks get before the risk of doing nothing, and showing there’s no cost, is worse than the risk of prompting an overreaction by North Korea,” says risk consultant Andrew Gilholm to the Wall Street Journal. “My own view is we’re still not at that level.”
> 
> Gilholm’s assessment mirrors that of Washington policy insiders. So there has been a decision, made as much by drift as well as design, to tolerate South Korean casualties. That was the thinking behind the failure to send the George Washington, the nuclear-powered carrier, into the Yellow Sea for joint exercises with South Korea after the Cheonan incident.
> 
> Predictably, the soft approach did not work. On Wednesday, the Pentagon announced that the carrier and its strike group were on their way to the Yellow Sea for drills with South Korean vessels. If the Obama administration had ordered the George Washington to the area this summer, the shelling of Yeonpyeong might never have happened.
> 
> The beneficial effect of sending the carrier to waters close to North Korea was unfortunately diluted by other Obama administration responses. For instance, special envoy Stephen Bosworth said that the artillery duel on Tuesday — the South Koreans eventually got around to returning fire — “is very undesirable” and then called for “all sides” to exercise “restraint.”
> 
> General Walter Sharp, the American general in command of UN forces in South Korea, was hardly more inspiring in the face of North Korean aggression. His response to Pyongyang’s murder of South Korean civilians and soldiers? A call for general-officer talks with North Korea.
> 
> “I think a similar North Korean provocation could come at any time,” said President Lee immediately after the shelling.  At least the South Korean leader got this right.  Feeble responses from Washington and Seoul mean the North Koreans will definitely strike again. In fact, Pyongyang this week warned of additional attacks.
> 
> Additional attacks will mean more South Koreans will be killed. And with the drift to general conflict evident on the Korean peninsula, we can expect American forces there and in the region to be drawn into the fight.
> 
> Democracies are known for weak responses to the hostile acts of authoritarian states. This week, neither the White House nor the Blue House broke the pattern. They adopted policies that look like the ones we have witnessed before every major war in memory. We should not be surprised when conflict roils North Asia.
> 
> Gordon G. Chang is the author of Nuclear Showdown: North Korea Takes On the World and The Coming Collapse of China.


----------



## 57Chevy

China's support of North Korea grounded in centuries of conflict:
article link

Having just enjoyed Thanksgiving dinner, the American soldiers were told they would be home by Christmas as they launched their final offensive.

In fact, they were driving into the greatest ambush in modern history.

Twelve miles to their north, 380,000 brilliantly camouflaged enemy fighters lay in wait. In the days that followed, the U.S. Army would suffer its most harrowing ordeal of the past half-century.

Two American regiments were massacred at a pass called Kunu-ri; another was annihilated beside a frozen lake called Chosin.

The time was 60 years ago; the battlefield was North Korea; the enemy was China's People's Liberation Army.

Despite wide-ranging global changes -- the fall of European communism, the end of the Cold War, China-U.S. rapprochement, the rise of China as economic superpower -- there has been no indication that Beijing has altered its stance toward maintaining the isolated regime in the peninsula's north since it routed U.S.-led United Nations forces in Korea in the winter of 1950.

"China does not want to lose North Korea as a buffer zone vis-a-vis a pro-U.S. country -- South Korea," said Kim Won-ho, dean of the Graduate School of International Studies at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies.

article continues at link

Photo:
A truck crosses the Sino-Korean Friendship Bridge which links the N. Korean town of Siniuju to Dandong (L) in northeast China

                            (Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act.)


----------



## bdave

Dunno how trust worthy this is:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/expats-recalled-as-north-korea-prepares-for-war-2145018.html


----------



## midget-boyd91

Apparently the DPRK have readied Surface to Surface and Surface to Air Missiles, placed them on launch pads around the Yellow Sea.

*North Korea readies missiles as U.S., South Korea begin drill *

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/asia-pacific/north-korea-readies-missiles-as-us-south-korea-begin-drill/article1816291/

And artillery fire has been heard coming from the North

*Artillery heard as SKorea, U.S. begin military drills*

http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/TopStories/20101127/koreas-tension-101127/


----------



## bdave

Seems like shit really is gonna hit the fan.


----------



## MPwannabe

I'm not sure why they can't move the exercise a little away from NK, considering the situation. Is this to prove a point that the US and SK won't be intimidated?


----------



## JesseWZ

That's giving a greedy toddler what they want, every time they ask for it. It raises a greedy and gluttonous adult- which is what we are seeing now. It's a policy of appeasement that has been going on too long in my humble opinion.


----------



## a_majoor

A list of the highest end options (although in practice I doubt you will see this come to fruition). Part one of two:

http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/americas-grim-options-on-north-korea/



> *America’s Grim Options on North Korea*
> Posted By John Parker On November 28, 2010 @ 12:37 am In Asia, China, Homeland Security, Koreas, US News, World News | 62 Comments
> 
> For the past week, the stunning report of nuclear scientist Siegfried Hecker regarding North Korea’s uranium enrichment program has been sending shock waves throughout the world. This is indeed an extremely grave development, although the most serious aspect of it is not what most people think, i.e., the mere fact that North Korea has the bomb — that particular horse left the barn several years ago.
> 
> Instead, the most dangerous aspect of North Korean nuclear-state status is the fact that the DPRK has a very consistent record of selling every weapons technology it possesses to literally anyone who will buy. This record includes the regime’s well-known deal with Pakistan to obtain uranium and uranium enrichment technology in exchange for missiles. Other customers included Iran, Libya, Syria, and Yemen.
> 
> To many, the idea that North Korea might actually sell nuclear warheads to Islamic extremists might seem implausible, even for the North Koreans. It is obvious to outsiders that to even attempt this, in the current international climate, would be suicidally reckless. But North Korea is perhaps the ultimate rogue state. It has never paid any attention to the normal rules of international conduct: it sells narcotics; it forges currency; it blows up passenger airplanes; it murders the entire families of defectors; it kidnaps children from neighboring countries; it assassinates diplomats; it digs invasion tunnels; and, as we saw yet again with the Yeonpyeong island attacks, it lashes out militarily whenever it feels the need.
> 
> The result of the DPRK’s dramatically enhanced uranium enrichment capacity is a situation much worse than the one which nearly triggered a war in 1994, during the Clinton administration. Compared to then, North Korean nuclear capability is now a fact, not a possibility; and unless action is taken, the regime will begin adding warheads to its arsenal at the rate of perhaps one a month.
> 
> What to do now? Unfortunately, we are at the point where the easy options have all evaporated. Contrary to the bizarre conclusion of Dr. Hecker in his report, it is obvious that further direct diplomatic approaches to North Korea itself will be pointless. All the years of frantic diplomacy to date have only succeeded in buying the North time to bring its nuclear weapons program to successful fruition. It is now perfectly clear that, from the very beginning, North Korea was never sincerely willing to bargain away its nuclear activities. And even if that had been the case, how could one trust any agreement with the North, given its consistent willingness to violate agreements almost before the ink was dry?
> 
> There are, however, some meaningful countermoves available to the United States and its allies in East Asia, South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan. Two of these measures, in the author’s opinion, are mandatory as the minimum necessary response to the current crisis. In addition, if we are serious about dealing with the North Korean nuclear problem once and for all, there are several more serious steps we urgently need to consider.
> 
> Necessary Step 1: Nuclear Terrorism Means War With North Korea
> 
> The first immediately necessary step is required because the U.S. must prevent, at any cost, the sale of nuclear warheads by the North. Al-Qaeda is only the most frightening of many possible buyers. The U.S. must now make it clear to Kim Jong-Il, in no uncertain terms, that if a terrorist nuclear weapon ever detonates on U.S. soil, the U.S. will not wait for an investigation before retaliating directly and massively against the North Korean leadership itself. In other words, the North Korean government must be convinced to totally abstain from nuclear proliferation for the sake of its own physical survival; and if a direct threat to the lives of the Kim family is the only way to do that, then such a threat must duly be made.
> 
> I first suggested in 2005 [1] that this explicit linkage between any incident of nuclear terrorism and a state of war between the U.S. and North Korea had been made inevitable by the North’s acquisition of nuclear weapons; nothing I have seen since has led me to change my mind. Indeed, the increase in enriched uranium capability implied by the Hecker report has only made the need for this policy more dire.
> 
> It is crucial that the personal accountability of the Kim family be openly stated by the U.S. government. It is no longer appropriate or useful to maintain the fiction that the North Korean government exists as a separate entity from the Kim family dictatorship. All the important decisions in North Korea are made by the Kim family, regardless of the family members’ wisdom, qualifications, or competence. The Kim family is supremely indifferent to its neighbors’ desire for peace. Moreover, contrary to its propaganda claims, it does not care a whit for the welfare of the Korean nation; the lives of Korean people; or the reunification of Korea — after all, the North’s acquisition of nuclear weapons has made reunification far less likely, and obviously placed Korean lives in far greater danger, both north and south of the DMZ.
> 
> The regime has already proved conclusively, by its own actions, that it cares about one thing and one thing only: the perpetuation of its dictatorial power. That is why it is now necessary for the U.S. to make it clear to the Kims that they will personally be made to pay a price for any nuclear proliferation activity. This might strike many as a crude Mafia tactic unsuited to the U.S. government. Perhaps so, but that very fact is precisely why such a threat would be clearly understood by the Kim family — which is already an organized-crime organization in essence — and lead to an actual change in their behavior, which is now mandatory if we are serious about avoiding a truly apocalyptic war which could pull in China and Japan.
> 
> Necessary Step 2: Restore U.S. Nukes to South Korea
> 
> The second urgently necessary step is to restore nuclear weapons to South Korea. Until they were removed in 1991 as part of an arms control agreement between the U.S. and USSR, the U.S. maintained several dozen B-61 gravity bombs in the ROK, intended to be used against DPRK armor in the narrow Korean mountain passes if the North ever attacked the South. This step is necessary now simply to provide minimal security for South Korea, in light of the new strategic situation that the North has created with its nuclear program. In fact, it is so obviously necessary that South Koreans themselves have begun to suggest it, something unthinkable only a few years ago when huge crowds were demonstrating in Seoul’s streets against the U.S. presence in the peninsula. The mood in the ROK has changed dramatically since then.
> 
> Furthermore, the U.S. should seriously consider going beyond the status quo in 1991, not only in the sense of introducing more modern warheads than the antiquated (and probably decommissioned) B-61s, but as a deliberate strategic step to put economic pressure on Pyongyang. For example, the U.S. and South Korea could jointly announce that, in order to secure the ROK in light of the North’s many provocative acts, the new nuclear policy will be to, at all times, maintain a 5-to-1 numerical superiority in warheads on the peninsula.
> 
> This calibrated escalation would have several highly desirable effects. First, it would confront the DPRK regime with the choice of either 1) accepting a permanent state of strategic inferiority (one very obvious to elements of the DPRK military, which might be looking for an excuse to get rid of the Kims), or 2) bankrupting itself to keep up with the increasing warhead count of the U.S.-ROK alliance (we must not forget that the North’s weakest point is its laughable economy). Also, this step will ramp up the pressure on China, which is the only nation that has the power to effect peaceful change in Pyongyang; this is especially the case if Seoul is granted command authority over the nukes (more on this possibility on the next page).


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## a_majoor

Part two:

http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/americas-grim-options-on-north-korea/



> *More serious options*
> 
> Is it possible to actually reverse North Korea’s nuclear weapons status without going to war — a feat which no previous policy has come close to accomplishing? In my opinion, yes, but it will not be easy. It will require tremendous nerve — one might even say audacity — and a willingness to bring our full national power to bear, in the clear awareness that these steps could trigger the most serious escalation in international tension since the Cuban missile crisis. No previous administration has been willing to go that far, for good reason. But remember: the alternative we now face is to watch helplessly as Pyongyang sets up a global bazaar for nuclear warheads, with total impunity.
> 
> These options basically fall into three groups. The first two are similar: they involve putting serious pressure on mainland China to intervene with Pyongyang. There is absolutely no question that this could work: China holds the balance of power on the peninsula, and the PRC is North Korea’s only international patron. Of course, this would require Beijing to change its policy; to date, the CCP regime has determined that North Korea should be maintained as a useful buffer against a democratic, U.S.-allied South Korea on its border. I, and a significant number of Chinese foreign policy experts, believe this policy to be absurdly outdated and contrary to China’s true national interest. After all, China’s relations with Seoul are excellent; Pyongyang’s recalcitrance has caused endless grief for the PRC, including diplomatic humiliation and holding back the development of China’s northeast region; and most of all, China could use a North Korean collapse as a lever to pressure Seoul to remove American troops from the peninsula (i.e., say, “the price of our non-intervention is that the U.S. must leave”).
> 
> Nevertheless, speaking as someone who reads fawning pro-North Korean articles in the Chinese state media on an almost daily basis, it has become quite clear that Beijing will never cease to act as the North’s chief shield and enabler unless it is made to pay a high price for doing so. Of course, putting pressure on the PRC has always been a difficult task, and never more so than now when the PRC is a superpower. But doing so is not impossible. There are two main ways. Both are high-risk, provocative moves with many obvious counter-arguments against them; but as I said, time has run out on the easy options.
> 
> Finally, before discussing specific measures, one must dispense with Beijing’s occasional protestation that it is helpless to change North Korean behavior. This is totally false, and it is time to stop apologizing for the PRC’s Korean policy, which has been consistently disastrous in its real-world effects ever since Communist China was founded. China is not only the DPRK’s only military ally, but practically its only remaining commercial partner. Chinese trade and investment has been crucial in keeping the Kim system alive, especially since the conservative Lee Myung-Bak administration came into power in the ROK.
> 
> Most importantly, the PRC, unlike the U.S., has a diplomatic option with North Korea that is so powerful that it could virtually resolve the situation with a single phone call, as I suggested [1] several years ago. Namely, Beijing could threaten to publicly abrogate its alliance with North Korea, placing the DPRK totally at the mercy of the U.S., ROK, and Japan. Many would argue that China could never publicly abandon an ally in this way. On the contrary — the PRC, the most realpolitik regime in the modern world, has abandoned allies so many times that this is practically a standard practice for them: Mao snubbed the USSR to meet Nixon; Deng Xiaoping decided to do business with South Korea despite Kim Il-Sung’s frantic requests to desist; Jiang Xemin abandoned Albania to support the Serbs during the Kosovo war; and Hu Jintao has displayed a notable lack of grief for the departed Saddam Hussein regime, as Chinese energy companies poured into Iraq in recent years. Indeed, so strong are the PRC’s pragmatic tendencies that, although this possibility rarely occurs to Americans, one can plausibly argue that North Korea developed nuclear weapons primarily because it feared being abandoned by China, not because it feared a unilateral attack by the U.S.
> 
> Serious Option 1: Economic Sanctions on the PRC
> 
> The first basic option for putting serious, no-more-Mr. Nice Guy pressure on China is to threaten economic sanctions, such as: crippling tariffs on Chinese exports to the U.S.; an asset freeze; travel ban; etc. Now, anyone reading this can immediately think of at least ten reasons why such steps would be a terrible idea. So can I; believe me, as a business journalist covering China, I can see you those 10 reasons and raise you at least 20 more. But the fact remains, the PRC needs its $300 billion-plus in annual exports to the U.S. (around 6% of China’s economy) a heck of a lot more than the U.S. needs its around $70 billion in exports to China (about 0.5% of the U.S. economy). Years of hand-wringing articles about our trade deficit with China may have conditioned Americans to believe that our pathetic inadequacy as an exporter is an entirely bad thing, but in this context — using a trade cutoff as a threat — it’s actually beneficial, because it means that we have much less to lose from a breakdown in trade than China does.
> 
> Another destructive side effect of perspective-challenged journalism on China is that most Americans’ perception of the power discrepancy between the two countries is fundamentally opposite to what it actually is. Not only is the U.S. economy still three times larger than China’s, but the average American is far better cushioned against economic adversity than the average Chinese; 230 years of fairly steady economic growth have seen to that. Moreover, the U.S. economy is largely based on indigenous innovation, whereas China’s is based on the deployment of foreign technology — the supply of which would, at the very least, be drastically reduced by a serious economic dustup with the U.S.
> 
> Militarily, China is many years away from being in a position to take on the U.S., not least in nuclear arms. A nuclear arms race with America would cripple China financially. Beijing knows this, which is why its nuclear missiles function only as a deterrent force; if a nuclear exchange did take place at current warhead levels, the U.S. would be terribly bloodied, but China would cease to exist as a modern nation within hours of a nuclear attack on the U.S.
> 
> Another aspect of Chinese vulnerability is, as strange as this assertion may sound to American ears, political: Americans typically overestimate the CCP’s political strength. U.S. administrations renew their mandate every four years; over the long term — if not always in the short term — this is a tremendous source of strength and stability for the U.S. But mainland China has never had a legitimately elected government (though Taiwan has). This means that the PRC regime depends on a limited set of options to maintain its popularity, which is constantly drained away by the gross corruption that is an ineradicable structural feature of China’s current political system. The most important of these tools is continued economic growth. Beijing is already facing spiraling discontent in the form of public demonstrations; any serious breakdown in economic relations with the U.S. would almost certainly trigger a depression which could quite possibly lead to the end of the CCP’s monopoly on power.
> 
> Serious Option 2: Permit Our Allies to Go Nuclear
> 
> Second, the U.S. could to threaten to allow its major allies in the region to match Pyongyang’s procurement of nuclear weapons. This is something that, to date, the U.S. has always actively prevented; for example, in the mid-1970s, the U.S. pressured South Korea to abandon its own nuclear weapons program (Park Chung-Hee was feeling insecure after the U.S. pullout from Vietnam). North Korea, in its folly, has furnished the U.S. with the perfect political cover for this policy: it is absurd for the U.S. to accept a situation where China’s ally has nukes, but America’s allies don’t — we have every moral right to insist on parity.
> 
> Also, because the U.S. has three major allies in northeast Asia — South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan — this policy offers the advantage of having a built-in ratchet where the aggressiveness, risk, and likely effectiveness in influencing Beijing to change its policy increases with each step. The least confrontational version would involve threatening to place nuclear weapons under Seoul’s control, something that would be practically impossible for the PRC to oppose under the current circumstances. This version is relatively low-risk because following through on the threat would do little to increase the risk of war (the two nuclear-armed Koreas would deter each other); however, at the same time, it would be highly detrimental to China’s strategic position. For example, the prospect of entering any renewed conflict on Pyongyang’s side would become dramatically more risky for Beijing if Seoul, in addition to the U.S., possessed nuclear arms.
> 
> A further escalation would be to accede to Japanese nuclear weapons status; Japan would hardly require assistance in this regard — everyone in Asia knows that Japan could go nuclear on its own within a matter of one to two years at most. Also, it is probably unrealistic to equip Seoul with nukes and not Japan, for two reasons: first, Japan would greatly resent the diminished status that this disparity would imply; and second, given that North Korea’s war plan (according to the late defector Hwang Jeong-Yop) involves a threat to nuke Japan, the Japanese have every right to deter Pyongyang by themselves, irrespective of U.S. policy.
> 
> The last stage in this three-step ratchet would be the riskiest and most aggressive, but also absolutely guaranteed to get China’s attention, to put it mildly. This would be to raise the possibility of nuclear weapons in the hands of Taiwan. For the CCP regime, a nuclear Taiwan would be a bona fide foreign policy catastrophe, and Beijing will become apoplectic if this is even suggested.
> 
> Nevertheless, the truth is that being cornered in this manner is exactly what the CCP deserves. It has propped up the Kims and winked at North Korea’s nuclear activities for decades; now that matters have deteriorated to the point where the core national interests of the U.S., South Korea, and Japan are imperiled, the time has come for Beijing to start feeling the heat as well. Ultimately, China must choose: does it want to reduce itself to the status of Kim Jong-Il’s guard dog, even at the cost of wrecking its economy and losing Taiwan forever; or does it want to join the mainstream of world civilization — a civilization it will certainly earn tremendous gratitude from by acting constructively (for once) to deal with the threat posed by the Kim regime?
> 
> Serious Option 3: Military Action
> 
> The third major option, of course, is military strikes. Many levels of action are possible, ranging from air strikes to destroy the North’s nuclear facilities (the location of which is so well known that millions of Americans have seen them on Google Earth), up to and including an all-out war to finish off the Kim regime once and for all. Contrary to popular belief, there are also various intermediate military options. For example, the U.S. and its allies could introduce a naval blockade; conduct a limited “message-sending” land campaign that might occupy an offshore island; or, more aggressively, retake the city of Kaesong (which is just a few miles north of the DMZ, and is actually South Korean territory because it is south of the 38th parallel). The allies could also, in fairly short order, conquer a “security belt” north of Seoul, to alleviate the artillery threat.
> 
> Of course, war is horrific to contemplate: it has become almost traditional in the English-language press to use the word “unthinkable” to describe a breakout of full-scale hostilities on the peninsula. There are good reasons for this: northeast Asia is not some third-world backwater; it is one of the most developed and economically crucial parts of the world (save the North Korea-shaped void in its center), densely populated, and crammed with modern industrial infrastructure, including the Seoul, Pusan, Tokyo, Osaka, Tianjin, and Beijing metropolitan areas.
> 
> Most writers assume that any military action will quickly escalate into all-out war. It might; but then again, it might not. The Kims are totally amoral, but they are also totally corrupt, and not stupid. Kim Jong-Il knows full well that actually using his nuclear force will mean the end of his regime and quite possibly the death of himself and his entire family. Suppose the U.S. and ROK unexpectedly mount a snap land offensive to secure the artillery belt north of Seoul, along with air strikes against the nuclear infrastructure, while publicly announcing that the objectives are limited. The North will certainly resist conventionally — something the U.S. can easily deal with — but will it actually nuke Seoul? I find this doubtful. And even if such an attack was ordered, how would the weapon be delivered, with ballistic missile launch sites destroyed in the first few minutes of hostilities, and allied airpower roaming the skies at will?
> 
> In war, when you are winning, you can use that fact to extract concessions from the enemy. In fear of his own life, Kim Jong-Il might be made to see the wisdom of giving up his nuclear program, and accepting unrestricted weapons inspections, as a condition of a cease-fire. I do not relish the prospect of another extended period of UN inspections accompanied by lying and evasion; however, if this was accompanied by a militarily defanged DPRK with nuclear facilities in ruins, and a more secure South Korean capital, that outcome would be preferable to both the status quo, and a full-scale war that could end with the U.S. fighting China, as the previous Korean war did.
> 
> There is also the possibility that China may be actively planning to quickly occupy the North in the event of war — it has already increased troop levels near the Korean border in preparation for this contingency. I do not believe that Beijing took this step because it actually wants to fight the U.S. and South Korea. Fundamentally, a war with the U.S. in Korea is not in the PRC’s national interest; if China must fight the U.S., it wants the conflict to be over Taiwan, not Korea. Rather, I think Beijing’s intention is to halt a total collapse of the North in any conflict and demand a cease-fire line that stops short of a total reunification of Korea.
> 
> To avoid a war with the PRC, I think the U.S. would accept such a proposal (though South Koreans would be livid), and Beijing would use its de facto control of the remaining North Korean territory to remove the Kims and place a compliant government in power, one which would abstain from WMD programs. This outcome would meet the security needs of the major powers; a continued division of Korea would be immensely tragic for the Korean people, of course, but South Korea would have a significant expansion of territory and population to console itself with.
> 
> Conclusion
> 
> It would not be easy for any presidential administration to execute these strategies. It will require nerve, a willingness to throw the dice to achieve a goal that is an urgent national security priority, a willingness to proceed in spite of criticism, and most of all, a tough-minded realism about the nature of the North Korean regime. Oddly enough, when one thinks of an American politician who has the necessary traits, the first name that comes to my mind is John McCain. A pity the senator is not in a position to use those qualities just when America needs them.
> 
> Article printed from Pajamas Media: http://pajamasmedia.com
> 
> URL to article: http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/americas-grim-options-on-north-korea/
> 
> URLs in this post:
> 
> [1] 2005: http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Korea/GB23Dg02.html


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## 57Chevy

Patience with North has run out, warns South Korea

SEOUL — South Korea's president has said there is no point in being patient with North Korea any longer, as he warned that his communist neighbours would pay a "dear price" for any future provocations.

North Korea, which claims ownership of the sea immediately around the southern island of Yeonpyeong, meanwhile declared Monday that it was "not afraid of war", explicitly threatening a "rain of dreadful fire" if there is any violation of what it deems its territory.

In his first full address to the nation since Pyongyang shelled Yeonpyeong, killing four people, Lee Myung-bak, the South Korean president, said that "at long last" his country had come to realize that its previous policy of patience with North Korea "no longer makes sense".

"The South Korean people now unequivocally understand that prolonged endurance and tolerance will spawn nothing but more serious provocations," he said.

"We are aware of the historic lesson that a disgraceful peace achieved through intimidation only brings about greater harm in the end.

"If the North commits any additional provocations against the South, we will make sure that it pays a dear price without fail."

In his seven-minute televised address, President Lee, who is facing a wave of anger from South Koreans over his handling of the attack, apologized to his countrymen for what he called a "crime against humanity".

"I am standing here, keenly aware that I am responsible for not having been able to protect the lives and property of the people," the president said. "I understand very well that you were greatly disappointed with how we responded."

Mr Lee's promise of retaliation for any future North Korean attack leaves him with almost no room for manoeuvre in the event of further provocations by Pyongyang.

At the same time, however, the South drew back from staging new live-fire exercises around Yeonpyeong island. Similar exercises last week were blamed by Pyongyang for triggering its attack.

The exercises are separate from joint U.S.-South Korean drills which continue 50 miles to the south.

Pyongyang state media yesterday issued new threats against the South. "We don't want war, but never are afraid of one," the Rodong Sinmun, newspaper said.

"If internal and external war maniacs make a provocation again, we will counter it without hesitation, grub up the base of aggressors entirely and cleanse the root cause of war clearly."

North Korea meanwhile announced it had "cutting-edge" nuclear fusion technology, claiming a breakthrough in a field that has baffled the world's scientific community.

link
                      (Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act)


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## 57Chevy

Gallery: Demonstrations and War Exercises in the Korean Peninsula

Anti-North Korea demonstrations denouncing North Korea's November 23 attack on Yeonpyeong island. South Korea deployed rocket launchers and extra artillery on a frontline border island bombarded last week by North Korea, as Seoul's leader vowed on November 29 to make Pyongyang pay for any fresh provocations.

Photo:
South Korean war veterans protest during an anti-North Korea rally on November 30, 2010 in Seoul, South Korea. South Korean and American military forces began war games exercises Sunday as tensions between the two Koreas remain high following an artillery exchange on the disputed island of Yeonpyeong on November 24.
Photograph by: Chung Sung-Jun/Getty Images
23 other photos (link)
                            (Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act)


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## tomahawk6

The ROK decision makers response to the shelling of the island was a bit slow. Caution is one thing but the local commander should have the authority to respond. What if an amphibious assault came under cover of the artillery shelling ? Part of the North Korean game plan is to see how fast the ROK can effectively respond to a threat. If they determine that the ROK doesnt want to aggressively respond to a threat the North could well ratchet up the incidents.Sink a ship one day.Mount a limited ground assault another time. At some point the ROK has to take something off of the board that the communist leadership value. Personally I would target infrastructure. Kim Jong Il loves his trains blow some up. Blow the rail line at a point that would take weeks or longer to repair. Blow up oil/gas storage facilities.Tit for tat.



> A Credibility Problem In South Korea
> 
> November 29, 2010: The South Korean military has a credibility problem. That's because when Yeongpyeong Island was shelled by North Korean rockets on the 23rd, it took the South Korean self-propelled 155mm K-9 guns on the island 13 minutes to begin returning fire. The South Korean guns fired 80 rounds into North Korea before they were ordered to cease fire at about 3:30 PM, an hour after the North Koreans began firing. The North Koreans had fired 170 122mm rockets at Yeongpyeong, with about half the unguided rockets missing the island and landing in surrounding waters.
> The credibility problem arose from the fact that North Korea had fired towards Yeongpyeong Island last January, but the shells from their coastal artillery landed north of the island. It gave everyone a fright, but there was no damage or casualties. The problems arose when the South Korean generals were called before parliament and asked what would happen if the North Koreans actually fired on Yeongpyeong Island. The reply was that South Korea guns on the island would promptly fire three or four times as many shells right back. That was a reasonable statement, if the North Koreans used their 130mm coast artillery weapons. These have a low rate of fire, and there aren't that many of them in the vicinity of the island. But the North Koreans moved up several 122mm rocket launchers, and let the island have it, and then quickly moved before the return fire arrived 13 minutes later. The South Korean generals had told parliament that return fire would begin within minutes, and the K-9s were prepared to do that. But first they had orders to call headquarters and ask permission to commence firing. That took most of the 13 minutes, as alarmed officers and officials at defense headquarters debated what to do. Firing artillery into North Korea could start another war, and no one wanted to be responsible for that.
> 
> The South Koreans also sent some fighter-bombers to the scene, including the new F-15K, armed with smart bombs. But these were ordered to stay out of North Korean air space, as an air attack might have escalated the fighting. However, the military was criticized for that as well, because the voters are in an uproar over the state of South Korean defenses, and the performance on the 23rd did not inspire confidence. In the long run, the military will probably be proven right to be prudent, but in the meantime, they have to be careful what they promise the politicians in public.


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## 57Chevy

U.S., S.Korea wrap up war games amid N.Korea crisis

Gazette article link
SEOUL - The U.S. and South Korean navies Wednesday wrapped up war games meant as a muscular show of force to North Korea, as world powers remained sharply divided over how to deal with the nuclear-armed regime.

Their biggest-ever joint exercise, which saw jet fighters thunder through the sky above a U.S. carrier battle group, began days after Pyongyang stunned the world with a deadly artillery strike on a South Korean island.

The shelling of Yeonpyeong island, which killed two marines and two civilians, infuriated South Koreans and sharply raised public support for a far tougher military response if the volatile North should attack again.

The 10 warships and 7,300 crew taking part in the drill Wednesday carried out "manoeuvres of fleet protection and logistic sustainment under various scenarios of enemy threat", said South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff.

They also said both sides were planning more drills this month or in early 2011, although no details had been finalized yet.

The North has warned that the four-day Yellow Sea exercises brought the Koreas closer to "the brink of war". In the South, Defence Minister Kim Tae-Young said there was "ample possibility" of another North Korean strike.

The regime of Kim Jong-Il, which has staged two atomic bomb tests since 2006, ramped up tensions when it boasted Tuesday about a new nuclear facility that, experts warn, could be used to produce weapons-grade uranium.

With the Korean peninsula plunged into its worst crisis in years, diplomats at the United Nations and elsewhere struggled to find common ground on whether to punish Pyongyang or seek to engage it in new talks.

Diplomats said China, the long-time patron of the communist regime, has blocked attempts for a UN Security Council condemnation of North Korea over its attack and its new nuclear activities, which contravene UN resolutions.

"Council talks have come to a standstill. It is now very likely that the Security Council will do nothing about North Korea," one said.
Beijing has instead proposed that the six parties to long-stalled North Korean denuclearization talks — the two Koreas, the United States, China, Russia and Japan — hold an emergency meeting on the crisis.

Washington, Seoul and Tokyo have been cool to the proposal or rejected it.

White House spokesman Robert Gibbs told reporters: "I think the Chinese have a duty and an obligation to greatly press upon the North Koreans that their belligerent behaviour has to come to an end.

"And I think you'll see progress on multilateral discussions around this over the next few days."

Diplomats are seeking to arrange a meeting between U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and the South Korean and Japanese foreign ministers, though no date has been announced yet.

Envoys from North Korea and Japan are now visiting Beijing, and China's top foreign policy official Dai Bingguo was expected to head to North Korea this week, according to reports.

Russia's deputy nuclear envoy Grigory Logvinov was due in Seoul on Wednesday to meet South Korea's chief nuclear envoy Wi Sung-Lac. Moscow has had friendly ties with Pyongyang but has said its attack last week deserves to be condemned.

The frantic diplomacy is going on against the backdrop of a massive leak of U.S. embassy cables by whistle-blower site WikiLeaks, which adds a new perspective on China's views about North Korea.

China has long supplied the impoverished country with food, energy and diplomatic cover, in part because it fears a regime collapse that would bring a flood of refugees and erase a buffer state with the U.S.-allied South.

But the leaked U.S. cables — although they are second- and third-hand accounts of Chinese officials' views — nonetheless suggest Beijing is growing more exasperated with its neighbour.

The sensitive cables also reflected a view that China may be growing more open to the North eventually being absorbed by the South.
The spike in tensions comes as North Korea's Kim, 68, is thought to be in poor health and readying to hand over power to his youngest son Kim Jong-Un, who two months ago assumed a top military post at the age of 27.

                                 (Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act)


edited for coloring :


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## GR66

It's a very difficult situation.  I don't doubt that the US and the South (with thier allies) could inflict enough damage on North Korea to cause the collapse of the regime but the cost would be enormous (physical destruction, civilian and military casualties and the massive costs of rebuilding the North afterward).  Who in the South would be willing to initiate such an event knowing those costs?

Unfortunately it seems that short of the regime in the North collapsing in such a way as they don't lash out at the South in an effort to survive, the South may just be seeking to delay an inevitable confrontation.  If it's put off long enough that confrontation may end up involving nuclear weapons that are truly deployable, perhaps even miniaturized enough to be placed on missiles to strike targets outside the area of the front lines which would be even more costly in all ways to everyone involved. 

China doesn't want a pro-US South advancing directly to their border...but they obviously wouldn't want to see a nuclear war take place in their back yard either.  Everyone's hoping against hope that by maintaining the status quo we'll all get lucky and see the "least bad" outcome, but the more time that passes the potential "worst possible" outcome becomes more possible.

The balance of power between China and the US that left this war unresolved has allowed it to fester to the point that it may eventually become just as potentially dangerous as the original war it replaced.  The same could maybe be said of similar "unresolved" conflicts like the Arab-Israeli conflict and the US/Arab-Iranian conflict.  Resolving them now (or when the first happened) would be extremely costly but putting off that resolution could eventually result in an even higher cost being paid.


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## 57Chevy

S.Korea spy chief says more attacks likely:

SEOUL -- North Korea is highly likely to attack South Korea again, the South's spy chief said on Wednesday, as a flotilla of American warships led by an aircraft carrier left South Korean waters after a deadly attack. 

"There is a high possiblity that the North will make an additional attack," Won Sei-hoon, director of the National Intelligence Service, told a parliamentary committee meeting. 

The South's Defence Minister, Kim Tae-young, has also warned there was an "ample possibility" the North might stage another provocation once a U.S.-South Korea exercise ended on Wednesday. 

Won said wire-taps in August indicated Pyongyang was preparing for an attack off the west coast designed to smooth the way for Kim Jong-il's son to take over as leader, Yonhap news agency reported. 

"In August this year, we confirmed North Korea's plan to attack five islands in the West Sea through wiretapping," he said. "We didn't expect the (North's) shelling on civilians, as North Korea has often made threatening remarks." 

Article continues read more: here

Photo:
Retired South Korean marines burn a cutout photo of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il at an anti-North Korea rally in Cheongju, south of Seoul December 1, 2010.
Photograph by: YONHAP, Reuters
                              (Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act)


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## 57Chevy

N. Korea warns against further military drills in tense waters:

Yonhap News Agency article link
SEOUL, Dec. 5 (Yonhap) -- North Korea on Sunday warned against South Korea's plan to resume fire drills and hold more joint exercises with the United States in waters near their tense western border, saying nobody can predict the consequences of the drills.

  "The political situation on the Korean Peninsula is reaching an uncontrollable level due to provocative, frantic moves by the puppet group," the North's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said in a "commissioned" report. "Should a full-scale war break out between the North and the South, this will have grave influence on peace and security on the peninsula and elsewhere in the region."

   The KCNA did not mention who "commissioned" the report, but it is believed to be the all-powerful National Defense Commission or other military authorities.

   North Korea attacked the inhabited island of Yeonpyeong near the tense Yellow Sea border on Nov. 23 with artillery, killing four people. The North justified the assault by claiming that its military had reacted only after the South's troops on the island held live-fire drills and fired into its waters, the usual logic its regime has used as an excuse for past shellings into the waters across the maritime border.

   South Korea's military said the drills were harmless and regular, and that at the time of the North's attack were being conducted on its side of the so-called Northern Limit Line (NLL), the maritime border drawn by the United Nations that Pyongyang does not acknowledge.

   Citing Seoul's plan to resume live-fire drills and discussions with the U.S. to hold additional joint military drills within this year in waters off Yeonpyeong Island, the North threatened, "Nobody can predict how the situation will deteriorate in the future."

   "The U.S. and South Korean puppets should not act rashly, mindful of possible consequences of their military provocations," the report stressed.
                          ___________________________________________________________
                                (Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act)

Also from Bloomberg
North Korea Condemns U.S., Japan, South Korea Creating `Military' Alliance:

North Korea denounced the U.S., South Korea and Japan for “reckless moves” to create a military alliance that threatens peace in North Asia. 

“The situation on the Korean Peninsula is getting tenser as the days go by and the danger of a war is increasing hour by hour,” the state-run Korea Central News Agency reported, citing a commentary in the Rodong newspaper yesterday. ‘The U.S. is giving spurs to an arms buildup and preparations for a war.” 

Tensions on the Korean Peninsula have increased since North Korea’s Nov. 23 shelling of South Korea’s Yeonpyeong island that killed two soldiers and two civilians. South Korea’s new defense minister Kim Kwan Jin two days ago vowed retaliation that would include airstrikes if North Korea made another attack. 

article continues...,
                 ______________________________________________________________


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## 57Chevy

S.Korea starts exercise, Obama urges China to curb N.Korea
Article Link

SEOUL - South Korea's military began a major live-fire exercise Monday amid high tensions sparked by North Korea's deadly bombardment last month, as Washington pressed Beijing to curb its unruly ally Pyongyang.

The South, smarting over the unprecedented shelling of a civilian area, dismissed claims by the North that the five-day drill could spark war.

The land, sea and air firing exercise follows last week's major show of naval strength by Seoul and its close ally Washington, designed to deter Pyongyang from future attacks.

U.S. President Barack Obama in a telephone call late Sunday urged his Chinese counterpart Hu Jintao to send "a clear message" to the North that its shelling of South Korean territory and other provocations must end.

Obama urged China to work with the United States and other countries "to send a clear message to North Korea that its provocations are unacceptable", a White House statement said.

article continues, read more at link
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## midget-boyd91

The CBC.... gotta love how accurate they are when it comes to fact checking.  :

http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2010/12/06/war-crimes-korea.html



> The International Criminal Court announced Monday it will investigate North Korea for possible war crimes for its role in the shelling and for the sinking of a South Korean *submarine* in March.



Sure, it may have eventually become a submarine... but when it was hit, it wasn't.

This isn't even the first or second or even third time I've seen this same mistake made...


----------



## 57Chevy

U.S., S.Korea military chiefs discuss N.Korea threat
article link

SEOUL - U.S. and South Korean military chiefs started talks Wednesday on ways to deter further attacks by North Korea after its deadly bombardment of a South Korean island.

Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS), and his counterpart General Han Min-Koo were also expected to discuss the North's likely motives in shelling the border island, said a spokesman for Seoul's JCS.

They would talk about ways to improve defence co-operation and are likely to discuss more joint exercises off the Korean peninsula, the spokesman told AFP.

The two countries' navies last week staged their biggest-ever joint exercise as a warning to the North, after its November 23 attack killed two civilians and two marines, wrecked homes and threw the region into crisis.

This week the South's military is holding live-fire drills off its coast, ignoring the North's warnings that it could spark a war.

Mullen, in comments to reporters aboard his plane, said the two sides would review planned exercises and discuss appropriate responses to any future attacks by the North.


The U.S. military chief, quoted by The Wall Street Journal, said future exercises must improve preparedness while not fuelling tensions.

"We all need to be mindful of the overall situation as we look at what we would call normal kinds of exercises, or even routine, because normalcy and routine are not what they used to be," Mullen said.

The South's military was widely criticized for a perceived weak response to last month's attack and the defence minister stepped down.

His successor Kim Kwan-Jin, who will meet Mullen later, has vowed next time to use the South's air power to hit the North's artillery batteries.

The United States stations some 28,500 troops in the country, and assumes command of both countries' militaries in case of war. The South currently has an agreement to consult U.S. forces before using its own jet fighters in combat.

"The two sides are likely (Wednesday) to discuss the issue of approving an air raid when North Korea attacks our territory," a Seoul military source told Yonhap news agency Tuesday.

"Part of our discussion is to keep any actions limited to those that would not escalate, because no one wants this to break out into conflict right now," Mullen said on his plane.

"That said, the South Koreans have every right to defend their country and their people."

The United States is pressing China to use its economic and political influence to restrain its ally North Korea.

But the U.S. and its own allies have rejected a Chinese call for emergency talks about the crisis among envoys to six-party nuclear disarmament talks, including the North.

Mullen said he believed China was a "big part of the solution-set here." He said because Beijing's economy is dependent on stability, he hoped it would pressure Pyongyang to change its behaviour.

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## George Wallace

Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act.



*China delegation visits North Korea, expresses support for Kim Jong Il
*

*The US was hoping that China, the only country with diplomatic influence over North Korea, would rebuke the country for shelling South Korea last month. But China appears intent on maintaining support for Kim Jong Il.*


December 9, 2010 
By Tom A. Peter, Correspondent
The Christian Science Monitor 

LINK 

North Korean leader Kim Jong Il met with high-level Chinese officials on Thursday in North Korea's capital, Pyongyang, where China reaffirmed its relationship with its fellow communist state and maintained a neutral stance on North Korea's attack on South Korean forces last month. 

North Korea, which hasn't explained why it shelled the South Korean island of Yeonpyeong, heightened tensions on the Korean Peninsula further by saying that the island is surrounded by North Korea-controlled waters. The internationally determined border is several miles to the north of the island, reports The Wall Street Journal.

China's stance has irked many American leaders and their allies who hoped that China, North Korea’s only ally, would apply pressure on Mr. Kim to stop his hawkish policies, reports BeijingNews.net. 

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm. Michael Mullen was among the loudest critics, sharply condemning China for its apparent unconditional support of North Korea. He had hoped that Chinese officials would express public disapproval of the North's Nov. 23 artillery strike. The shelling was the most violent exchange since the Korean War ended in 1953.

“The Chinese have enormous influence over the North, influence that no other nation on Earth enjoys,” Mullen was quoted as saying in an article in the Los Angeles Times.  “And yet, despite a shared interest in reducing tensions, they appear unwilling to use it…. Even tacit approval of Pyongyang's brazenness leaves all their neighbors asking, ‘What will be next?’”

China has defended its support of the North, calling Mullen’s remarks an “accusation,” reports the BBC. Jiang Yu, a spokesperson for the Chinese foreign ministry also criticized Mullen asking what exactly he had done to create “peace and stability in the region.” 

Next week a team of US diplomats will travel to China to discuss the shelling incident and the subsequent tensions. Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg, who will lead the delegation, has tried to move the focus away from the friction between US and China, saying leaders in Beijing can play a “critical role” in defusing the situation. He added that the US and China have a common interest in finding a peaceful resolution to this situation, reports Al Jazeera.

President Obama spoke with Chinese President Hu Jintao over the phone on Monday. The two discussed North Korea’s nuclear ambitions and the worsened security situation on the peninsula following the shelling. The US has also pledged to increase joint training exercises with South Korean forces, reports The New York Times. 

In an editorial for The Korea Times, Zhu Feng, deputy director of the Center for International and Strategic Studies at Peking University, writes that the latest WikiLeaks cables reveal that China would be willing to accept the reunification of Korea in favor of the South but for the American military presence. He speculates that China’s continued support of North Korea is an attempt to keep the communist state as a buffer between it and US forces currently stationed on the peninsula.

“Thus China does what it must, shoring up the Kim family dynasty to prevent Korea from reunifying on South Korean terms. Indeed, the controversy in Chinese eyes is not really about Korean reunification ― few in Beijing speculate that the endgame will be otherwise ― but to what extent reunification can be achieved without damaging China’s security concerns,” writes Mr. Feng.

IN PICTURES - Cult of Personality: Inside North Korea

Related stories

What next for North Korea's nukes? 

US envoy arrives in Seoul amid 'stunning' report on new North Korea nuclear facility 

Kim Jong-il's oldest son reveals ruling family fissure


----------



## 57Chevy

Ex-U.S. intel chief foresees South Korea military action
article link

WASHINGTON , Dec 12, 2010 (AFP) - The former chief of U.S. intelligence warned Sunday that South Korea has lost its patience with provocations by North Korea and "will be taking military action."

Retired admiral Dennis Blair, who was director of national intelligence until May, said he did not think that hostilities would escalate into a larger war with artillery attacks on Seoul because North Korea knows it would lose.

"So I don’t think a war is going to start but I think there is going to be a military confrontation at lower levels rather than simply accepting these, this North Korean aggression, and going and negotiating," he said on CNN’s State of the Union.

Blair said the North had gone beyond its usual pattern of brinkmanship with an artillery barrage on a South Korean island that killed four people November 23, and the sinking in May of a South Korean warship, which killed 46 sailors.

"So South Korea is beginning to lose patience with the North, which there was a great deal of patience," said Blair, who just returned from South Korea.

Asked what that meant, the retired admiral said, "It means they will be taking military action against North Korea."

His comments came as South Korea was preparing to go ahead with live fire drills off its coasts, but not near the contested maritime border with the North in the Yellow Sea.

North Korea’s artillery attack on the island of Yeonpyeong was the first on a civilian area since the end of the Korean war in 1953.

Amid a flurry of diplomatic attempts to defuse regional tension, Beijing has called for an emergency meeting between chief delegates to long-stalled six-party talks on the North’s nuclear disarmament.

The North’s leader Kim Jong-Il told Dao Bingguo, a visiting senior Beijing official, that Pyongyang was willing to rejoin the talks if other neighbors also agree to come forward, Yonhap news agency reported, citing a senior diplomatic source in Seoul.

But Blair suggested that South Korean leaders would continue to take a tough line against Pyongyang, and that such an approach would have wide popular support.

"In fact, a South Korean government who does not react would not be able to survive there," he said.

He said China had less influence on North Korea than some believe because of its fear of instability on its border, which the North "can sort of turn on any time they want."

"That being said, China’s policy is not commensurate with the overall stature and growth of China," he said. "They still have a policy of the weak, which is, ’Don’t want anything to happen in North Korea, no instability there. Let’s just keep things divided, a divided peninsula.’"

Instead, China should talk with the United States and South Korea about the future of Korea, he said, saying a united peninsula free of nuclear weapons and that did not threaten China was possible.

Blair also suggested in the interview that the administration of President Barack Obama had been distracted by its focus on the Middle East.

"And I think these events in East Asia have made us realize that there are big United States interests out there and we are going to have to provide steady leadership in more than one region of the world," he said.

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## Nemo888

Started reading, Nothing to Envy, Ordinary Lives in North Korea. It's a good read so far and may be one to pick up if you are one of the Peak Oil doomers. In the 80's when the Soviet Union fell all the oil was shut off to North Korea and Cuba. DPRK has experienced the fallout from a peak oil experience for over 25 years. The stories of a kindergarten teacher watching her students starve and die off while filling their heads with propaganda are very moving. It is so like Orwell's 1984. Ironically since 1984 it actually got worse than Oceania ever was in the book.


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## 57Chevy

N.Korea says war with South would go nuclear
article link

SEOUL - North Korea warned that another war with South Korea would involve nuclear weapons, as diplomatic efforts continued Friday to ease high tensions over its atomic ambitions and deadly artillery attack.

Uriminzokkiri, the official website of the communist state, said in a commentary seen Friday that war on the Korean peninsula is only a matter of time.

"Because of the South Koreans' reckless war policies, it is not about war or peace on the Korean peninsula but when the war will break out," the website said.

"If war breaks out, it will lead to nuclear warfare and not be limited to the Korean peninsula," it said in a posting dated Thursday.

The North frequently claims nuclear war is imminent. But military tensions have risen sharply since it bombarded South Korea's Yeonpyeong border island on November 23, killing two marines and two civilians.

Pyongyang's disclosure last month of an apparently working uranium enrichment plant — a potential new source of bomb-making material — also heightened regional security fears.

In a separate commentary, the North's ruling communist party newspaper Rodong Sinmun Friday described the peninsula as the world's most dangerous place.

It reiterated calls for a formal peace treaty with Washington and the withdrawal of 28,500 U.S. troops from South Korea.

"The Korean peninsula remains a region fraught with the greatest danger of war in the world," the paper said. "This is entirely attributable to the U.S. pursuance of the policy of aggression against the DPRK (North Korea)."

Prominent U.S. politician Bill Richardson, a veteran troubleshooter with North Korea, is paying a private visit to Pyongyang to try to ease tensions.

And the U.S. envoy to stalled six-party talks on the North's nuclear disarmament, Sung Kim, held talks in Seoul Friday with his South Korean counterpart Wi Sung-Lac.

In Beijing a U.S. delegation led by Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg wrapped up three days of discussions on the Korean peninsula situation.

Washington's embassy said the two sides had "useful conversations concerning shared interests in peace and stability in northeast Asia" as well as "the importance of realizing the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula".

The United States, China, the two Koreas, Japan and Russia are members of the denuclearization forum which the North abandoned in April 2009, a month before its second atomic weapons test.

Host China along with Russia is trying to revive the forum to ease the crisis, and the North says it is willing to talk. But the United States, South Korea and Japan say the North must first mend ties with the South and show genuine seriousness about abandoning its nuclear drive.

The U.S. and South Korea have staged a major naval show of strength to deter the North, and the South is preparing to hold a one-day live-fire artillery drill on Yeonpyeong sometime between Saturday and Tuesday.

A similar firing drill into the Yellow Sea on November 23 was answered by the North's deadly bombardment of villages on the island.

The South's military said its guns would be aimed away from the North as usual but it would respond strongly if provoked.

Members of the U.S.-led United Nations Command will observe the exercise, and about 20 U.S. soldiers will play a supporting role.

But a top U.S. general Thursday voiced concern over a possible "chain reaction".

General James Cartwright, vice chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the drill was being held on a "well-established and well-used" range in a transparent way, but could draw a North Korean reaction.

"What we worry about obviously is . . . if North Korea were to react to that in a negative way and fire back at those firing positions on the islands, that would start potentially a chain reaction," Cartwright told reporters.

"What you don't want to have happen out of that is for . . . us to lose control of the escalation."

Amid the continuing tensions, Japan said it would strengthen missile defences against the threat from North Korea. Its major strategic review announced Friday describes the North as an "urgent, grave factor for instability".


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## 57Chevy

Emergency UN Security Council meeting on Korean tension expected
article link

UNITED NATIONS - The UN Security Council will probably convene an emergency session on Saturday on the escalating tension between North and South Korea, council diplomats said.

"We will very likely have a meeting this afternoon," a diplomat told Reuters on condition of anonymity. Diplomats said the meeting was tentatively scheduled for 3 p.m., although it could change.

The meeting was called at the request of Russia, an envoy said. It was unclear what the 15-member council planned to do. Diplomats said they hoped to issue some kind of statement to help ease the tension in the region.

Bad weather on Saturday appeared likely to delay a live-fire drill by South Korean marines that has drawn North Korean threats of another military attack.

Recent attempts by the Security Council to agree anything on North Korea have run into difficulties because of disputes between China on one side and the United States, Britain and France on the other.

Russia has also been supporting the Chinese position that the council should avoid harsh rebukes of Pyongyang. The five powers are the veto-wielding permanent members of the Security Council.

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## 57Chevy

UN council struggles to overcome split on N.Korea
article link

The U.N. Security Council met in emergency session Sunday to try to cool tensions on the Korean Peninsula, but the five big powers were split on whether to publicly blame North Korea for the crisis.

Pyongyang raised an alert for artillery units along its west coast in what appeared to be its latest move in a growing crisis between the two Koreas, Yonhap news agency said, quoting a South Korean government source. The report was issued ahead of a planned live-fire drill by South Korea.

South Korea’s Defense Ministry offered no immediate comment on the Yonhap report. Bad weather has so far delayed the planned firing drill at a disputed border that has enraged Pyongyang.

Both sides have said they will use military means to defend what they say is their territory off the west coast, raising international concern that the standoff could quickly spiral out of control.

The 15 Security Council members were meeting behind closed doors to try to agree on a statement that Russian U.N. Ambassador Vitaly Churkin said he hoped would send a ”restraining signal” to both the North and the South.

article continues....
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*color


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## a_majoor

Deconstructing the issues and possible solutions:

http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/turning-the-tables-on-north-korea/?singlepage=true



> *Turning the Tables on North Korea*
> A proper understanding of the regime’s behavior does offer a way to deter Kim Jong-Il.
> December 14, 2010 - by Ryan Mauro
> 
> The conflict with North Korea is a Catch-22. On the one hand, ignoring the regime’s provocations guarantees they will continue and will escalate. On the other, the West does not want to risk war and destabilization makes it more likely that corrupt officials will sell expertise, weapons, and even WMDs to high-paying customers. At the moment, there is no viable opposition group that can replace the regime. The West seems stuck, but a proper understanding of the regime’s behavior does offer a way to deter Kim Jong-Il and Kim Jong-Un, his youngest son and successor.
> 
> The artillery barrage was part of a methodical escalation. Prior to the attack, Kim Jong-Il and his son met with the military officials in charge of the area from which the artillery would be fired. Shortly before this, the regime showed off a new uranium enrichment site to an American nuclear expert and told him that 2,000 centrifuges had been installed. The North Koreans also shot at a South Korean border post on October 29 and began constructing a lightwater reactor.
> 
> These provocations coincide with a purge of the military and the governing political party. Defectors say that older officers are being replaced as it is unlikely that the older leaders will follow a 26-year old with no military experience and no qualifications to lead them beyond his last name. About 1,000 officials in the party have been arrested and 20 to 30 executed to stifle any dissent or potential internal challenges. The simultaneous provocations and purge indicate the two are aimed at a common objective: securing the rise of Kim Jong-Un.
> 
> Knowing this, it appears the U.S. has two broad options: Ignore North Korea, denying the regime the tension it seeks, or react and potentially give the regime what it wants. The problem with the first option is that if Kim Jong-Il and his son feel a crisis is necessary for their survival, they will keep upping the ante until they get it. Dismissing them just guarantees greater provocations. That leaves the second option of retaliating, but this must be done in such a way that it discourages future aggression. The key is to cause a backlash among the military he’s trying to secure his hand over. If the provocations are done for stability, then we must make them result in instability. If their goal is to unite the regime, then division is what must happen.
> 
> South Korea, Japan, and the U.S. must build a Clintonesque “war room” that can immediately tell the truth about any provocation to the North Korean people and military, especially the soldiers that take part in any clash. Half of the North Korean population is now consuming foreign news media and an underground network exists to receive and deliver information. The personality cult that has sustained the government has, for the first time in its history, begun falling apart. If they hear a different story about how a clash happened than the one told by regime outlets, their new-found cynicism will cause them to consider it.
> 
> This political counterattack must be coupled with limited but impressive retaliation that hurts the military and unmistakably demonstrates the West’s military superiority. If handled properly, this embarrassment for the regime will undermine the North Korean forces’ confidence, shake the population’s faith in the military’s strength, and, most importantly, cause both the people and the military to question the wisdom of Kim Jong-Il and his son. The military won’t take kindly to paying the cost for a regime that has led them to depravity, especially if the leader is in his mid-20s and living lavishly.
> 
> Critics of this dual political-military approach will either argue that it is too risky or too weak; that the North Korean leadership is so evil and deranged that nothing short of death will stop them from aggressively acting out. Recent history shows that the regime is fearful of internal dissent, so much so that it is willing to modify its behavior to avoid it. When the public unprecedentedly voiced their outrage at a currency replacement plan in December 2009, the regime backpedaled and, amazingly, apologized. Kim Jong-Il executed an official for the blunder afterwards.
> 
> The regime’s retreat in the face of public opposition bears a lesson for the future. The regime will modify its behavior in response to significant internal opposition. If military aggression results in similar dissent instead of a closing of the ranks, then a similar response may occur. These short-term reactions to North Korea’s provocations can serve as a model for a long-term strategy of amplifying the dissent that intimidates the regime into containing itself.
> 
> There are risks that come with striking back at North Korea in these ways, but the risks are lower and more manageable than doing nothing. If we want to influence the regime’s behavior, we need to alter its perception of what brings it stability.
> 
> Ryan Mauro is the founder of WorldThreats.com, national security advisor to the Christian Action Network, and an intelligence analyst with the Asymmetrical Warfare and Intelligence Center (AWIC). He can be contacted at TDCAnalyst@aol.com.


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## Ridgeline

57Chevy said:
			
		

> Both sides have said they will use military means to defend what they say is their territory off the west coast, raising international concern that the standoff could quickly spiral out of control.



Sounds like Christmas might actually be interesting this year


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## GAP

> Defectors say that older officers are being replaced as it is unlikely that the older leaders will follow a 26-year old with no military experience and no qualifications to lead them beyond his last name. About 1,000 officials in the party have been arrested and 20 to 30 executed to stifle any dissent or potential internal challenges. The simultaneous provocations and purge indicate the two are aimed at a common objective: securing the rise of Kim Jong-Un.



This does not bode well. There must be fierce dissension within the military hierarchy.


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## Ridgeline

GAP said:
			
		

> This does not bode well. There must be fierce dissension within the military hierarchy.



Sounds good for us! Lets hope it turns out to be as bad as the Soviet Purge.  Set them back a few years just at the start of a conflict


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## blacktriangle

Ridgeline said:
			
		

> Sounds good for us! Lets hope it turns out to be as bad as the Soviet Purge.  Set them back a few years just at the start of a conflict



Or fills their ranks with hot headed young officers itching for a fight...

I personally have no interest in visiting the Korean Peninsula. 

 ;D


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## Ridgeline

That wouldn't be so bad .... might as well get the war over with, instead of tip toeing around the issue.  There WILL be a continuance of open warfare in Korea, if it's tomorrow or years from now.


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## wannabe SF member

Ridgeline said:
			
		

> That wouldn't be so bad .... might as well get the war over with, instead of tip toeing around the issue.  There WILL be a continuance of open warfare in Korea, if it's tomorrow or years from now.



I'd much rather see North Korea go with a whimper than with a bang.


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## Ridgeline

Inky said:
			
		

> I'd much rather see North Korea go with a whimper than with a bang.



True, I think everyone would like that; however I do not think North Korea will go out like that.  The Problem in Korea cannot be settled without further military action.  50+ years of peace talks have not done anything, it has only made the North even more radical and isolated.  Though I think there will be continued warfare lets hope it's in 75 years from now when were not here to deal with it.


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## 57Chevy

IMO Koreas on verge of war as both sides are provocative bullies trying one the other.
            ____________________________________________________________________

Ignoring North Korean threats, South holds live-fire exercise
article link
BEIJING — South Korea's government remained on emergency alert Monday night for possible retaliation after staging more than an hour of live artillery exercises on the island that North Korea shelled last month.

The artillery fire took place on Yeonpyeong Island, some seven miles off North Korea's coastline, and lasted about 90 minutes, adding to tensions on the Korean Peninsula, which are widely seen as being at their worst in decades.

North Korea released an official statement Monday evening that said it wouldn't respond, but Pyongyang's history of erratic behavior made it impossible to evaluate how long that position would last. As recently as Saturday, North Korea had threatened "decisive and merciless punishment" should the South hold the drills.

article continues at link....

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## Ridgeline

North Korea did not retaliate as threatened Monday as well as the North agreed to allow U.N. monitors access to its uranium-enrichment facility ... geeze there like my wife, they can't make up there mind ... one day they wanna kill everyone and the next there best friends


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## Dissident

A part of me doesn't want any more wars, the other just wants to see NK burn.


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## Jarnhamar

Park a bunch of icbm subs off NKs coast. Bring in a bunch of ships with missles that can shoot down nukes.

Send the madman a picture from google earth of his little starving empire surrounded with the caption "We dare you, p***y"


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## Ridgeline

The only problem with that is they would still attack ...


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## OldSolduer

For all those that really want to see the Koreas go at it, bear this in mind:

North Korean MAY have a deployable nuclear weapon. 

Give your heads a shake. We DO NOT need this.


----------



## Ridgeline

Jim Seggie said:
			
		

> For all those that really want to see the Koreas go at it, bear this in mind:
> 
> North Korean MAY have a deployable nuclear weapon.
> 
> Give your heads a shake. We DO NOT need this.



Even if they do have nuclear weapons,  they do not have the capability to get thoes to either North America or Europe.  Therefore Asia is screwed, not us.


----------



## OldSolduer

Ridgeline said:
			
		

> Even if they do have nuclear weapons,  they do not have the capability to get thoes to either North America or Europe.  Therefore Asia is screwed, not us.



And do you not think that radiation and fallout spread? Its not a good situation for anyone, not us, or Europe or Asia or Africa or Australia.

I really don't give a rats ass if the North Koreans can't get nukes to us, Japan, our ally, isn't far away.,

Wake up.


----------



## Ridgeline

Really, your being quite aggressive (rats ***)  for someone who appears to not understand that there have been over 2000 nukes already detonated world wide from the 1940's  till today. Japan (our allies) were already nuked twice, I do not see a nuclear winter, and Hiroshima looked quite pretty when I visited last summer.  The North Koreans do not have nukes superior to the ones dropped on Japan in 45 (Mark Schella, A Modern Korean War, Pg 18, 2009).  Also their capacity is deemed to be less then 10 workable weapons (Steven Hinder, Nuclear Winter, 2008).  Therefore if the North Koreans do decide to use nuclear weapons, the fallout would be equal if not less then the ones dropped in 45 due to measures already in place by Japan, South Korea, China and Russia.  

Fallout will spread, of course, however fallout of a bomb twice Hiroshima size only has a fall out radius of around 250 miles.  There are plenty of books on the subject, as well as scientific material related to nuclear warfare.  I can suggest some reading material if you would like. 

I do not see how a few nukes thrown by Kim Jong-il's into South Korea will disrupt the world in any major economic or social aspects, other then the fact that North Korea will be invaded, very quickly fall, and the Koreans will be once again united.


----------



## wannabe SF member

I'm with Jim on this one, the fewer nukes in the air, the better I sleep. Heck, if one nuke was to hit a major population center, say... Seoul, we'd have a serious humanitarian crisis on our hands. If there's a way of ending this threat peacefully, I'd rather us go for it even if it takes longer lest we jeopardize the lives of so many innocents.


----------



## Ridgeline

I totally agree with both of you, I hope that it never happens.  I just have written so much on the subject of nuclear war for university that I get more into the science of it and forget about the people.

I am just saying that a nuclear war, will not destroy the world.

It is a very interesting topic and will make for an awesome history class one day ... unlike rural Canadian environmental history from 1819 - 1826 ...


----------



## midget-boyd91

Jim Seggie said:
			
		

> For all those that really want to see the Koreas go at it, bear this in mind:
> 
> North Korean MAY have a deployable nuclear weapon.
> 
> Give your heads a shake. We DO NOT need this.



Right now, they MAY.... ten or fifteen years from now, they WILL. 

I don't want to see the Korean peninsula turn into a warzone, but if it is going to happen, sooner could be the better option than later.  (In terms of the possible number of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles capable of deploying said weapons.)

Dissention among the higher ranks of the military, and the government who do not want to come under the command of a twenty-something year old with ZERO experience, combined with famine and the rising risk of revolt of the civilian population can go one of two ways;

The DPRK stage another attack on the ROK in an effort to raise solidarity of the population and take their minds off the poor state of the transitioning government... which will risk igniting a major skirmish, if not the resumption of open warfare.

OR

The dissention among the ranks of the military, combined with an increasingly pissed off and more outspoken population causes the DPRK to break into factions loyal to the Dear Leader, and those seeking a revolution of sorts. A coup, possibly civil war between loyalists and those seeking change is not too far fetched if things turn in that direction..


----------



## GAP

Hmmm.....nice to be so casual with other people's lives.....I wonder how you would feel if it was yours' or your children's lives sitting in the firing line....


----------



## Ridgeline

GAP said:
			
		

> Hmmm.....nice to be so casual with other people's lives.....I wonder how you would feel if it was yours' or your children's lives sitting in the firing line....



I have lost many friends and a brother to war ... it still does not change my view.  One for one thousand still sounds better to me, and every one of my friends and my brother would agree


----------



## AmmoTech90

I realize this may be construed as a personal attack, but anyone who isn't concerned about nukes flying and is quite happy to see one detonated in anger is a frickin moron.

Never mind the loss of life and environmental damage (yes there have been many detonations during testing, do we really need another one?).  The economic fallout of this would overshadow anything else.  Think the worldwide economy is in the crapper now, wait and see how it performs during and after a nuclear war in an area of the world that not only is economically fragile but also a major manufacturer of goods for the world.

No one thought that the USSR would give up without a fight, look what happened there.


----------



## Ridgeline

uncle-midget-Oddball said:
			
		

> The dissention among the ranks of the military, combined with an increasingly pissed off and more outspoken population causes the DPRK to break into factions loyal to the Dear Leader, and those seeking a revolution of sorts. A coup, possibly civil war between loyalists and those seeking change is not too far fetched if things turn in that direction..



A civil war in North Korea would solve a lot of our problems


----------



## Ridgeline

AmmoTech90 said:
			
		

> I realize this may be construed as a personal attack, but anyone who isn't concerned about nukes flying and is quite happy to see one detonated in anger is a frickin moron.



I actually did not see that as an attack, I saw it as a debate.  Your point however looses every ounce of credibility when you attack other people and their views.  There are many people who agree with my side.  I never called you a frickin moron because I am ... whats that word .... mature.

Either way, I am not going to argue with you over this


----------



## PuckChaser

Ridgeline said:
			
		

> A civil war in North Korea would solve a lot of our problems



Unless of course they did have nukes, and an extremist group got a hold of them. I remember thinking that we were all screwed when Bhutto was assassinated in Pakistan. They HAVE nukes, and were a couple hundred KMs from me with a whole lot of Islamic extremists inbetween. I wouldn't wish a civil war on a country with a nuclear arsenal no matter how full of BS they are, because there are some smart people out there that want to do bad things to the West and would love a nuclear device.


----------



## Ridgeline

PuckChaser said:
			
		

> I wouldn't wish a civil war on a country with a nuclear arsenal no matter how full of BS they are, because there are some smart people out there that want to do bad things to the West and would love a nuclear device.



True


----------



## 57Chevy

PuckChaser said:
			
		

> Unless of course they did have nukes, and an extremist group got a hold of them.



This is exactly why the major world powers want to reduce stocks of nuclear weapons including the testing of such.
Quote:
The 2010 NPT review conference defied expectations and produced a consensus final document. Of particular importance, it calls on the nuclear-weapons states to move rapidly toward reductions in all types of nuclear weapons, diminish the role and significance of nuclear weapons, enhance transparency, and take steps to reduce the risk of nuclear conflict or accidental use.  The document calls for a conference in 2012 on the establishment of a WMD Free Zone in the Middle East.  It also calls on states to comply fully with IAEA safeguards and ensure that the IAEA has the resources to meet its responsibilities.  It encourages remaining holdouts to ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) and seek its early entry-into-force, and reaffirms the importance of a Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty (FMCT).

Next Steps on U.S.-Russian Nuclear Negotiations and Nuclear Non-Proliferation

Personally speaking, I think nuclear weapons should be banned worldwide. The use of such weapons should be
considered a crime against humanity.


----------



## a_majoor

The Catholic church tried t ban the use of crossbows in the middle ages since they were devastatingly effective against armoured nobility, and we all know how that worked out.

The ROK is making plans and prepping for the worst. The Chinese might be able to pull this one off and get closer to their goal of neutralizing Korea:

http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2010/12/preparing-for-mass-evacuation-from-korea/68276/



> *In Korea, Planning for the Worst: Mass Evacuation*
> DEC 20 2010, 11:33 AM ET11
> 
> As the Korean peninsula enters what U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates calls "a difficult and potentially dangerous time," the long-dormant Korean conflict is rumbling back into the public consciousness. Government officials from the U.S., South Korea, Japan, the Philippines, and other states throughout the region are planning for the worst-case scenario: renewed war, perhaps nuclear, and a massive exodus from South Korea. If tensions continue to escalate, hundreds of thousands of foreign civilians living in South Korea will flee, sparking one the biggest mass-evacuations since the British and French pulled 338,000 troops out of Dunkirk in 1940.
> 
> Even under the best conditions, a mass evacuation is no easy task. In July 2006, as a battle brewed between Israel and Lebanon-based Hezbollah militants, the U.S. took nearly a month to evacuate 15,000 Americans. According to the Government Accountability Office, "nearly every aspect of State's preparations for evacuation was overwhelmed", by the challenge of running an evacuation under low-threat conditions in a balmy Mediterranean summer.
> 
> Evacuating a Korean war-zone would be far harder. And the U.S. would likely have no choice but to ask China for help.
> 
> If North Korea launches another artillery strike against South Korea--or simply hurls itself at the 38th parallel--the resulting confrontation could trigger one of the largest population movements in human history. According to one account, 140,000 U.S. government noncombatants and American citizens would look to the U.S. government for a way out. And that's just the Americans. Hundreds of thousands of South Korean citizens and other foreign nationals would be clamoring for any way off of the wintery, dangerous peninsula.
> 
> In the absolute worst case, tens of millions of South Koreans and hundreds of thousands of foreigners, some wounded, some suffering from chemical, biological or even radiological hazards, will flee in the only direction available to them: south. The country's transportation system would be in nationwide gridlock as panicked civilians avail themselves of any accessible means of travel. In this desperation and chaos, the U.S. military has the unenviable mission of supporting and evacuating U.S. citizens, all while waging a fierce battle along the DMZ.
> 
> The U.S. does have a plan. In the event of an evacuation, the State Department and U.S. military say that the U.S. will instigate a prepared noncombatant evacuation operation. The first stop for an evacuee would be a prearranged assembly area for registration, a search, and an identity check. Then, assuming transportation is available, evacuees would be sent by whatever means the military can arrange to relocation centers farther down the peninsula to wait for transportation out of South Korea. Finally, U.S. civilians would gather at evacuation points where they will leave by sea or air to foreign "safe havens," such as Japan, or to the United States. The plan openly admits that things won't go smoothly, even instructing civilians to surrender their personal vehicle to the U.S. military upon arrival to an assembly area because the U.S. military may, in desperation, turn to civilian transport.
> 
> On paper, everything looks good, but as Korean tensions increase, the U.S. will have to get serious about evacuation planning. A successful wartime evacuation of the Korean peninsula can be done, and has been before. Sixty years ago this month, as Chinese troops pushed United Nations forces back from the Chinese border, an international fleet of 193 ships rescued around 196,000 soldiers and Korean refugees from Hungnam over just two weeks. However, modern-day evacuees would be far slower and more cumbersome than the well-trained amphibious force that made the Hungnam operation possible. Instead, the evacuation will be more like Dunkirk, where, largely unbidden, a disorganized fleet raced into threatened, shattered harbors to pull whomever they could to safety.
> 
> Countries around the globe with civilians or officials in South Korea would look to the U.S. first for evacuation support. But with a war to fight; wounded, contaminated, or infectious casualties to deal with; and amphibious lift resources at a premium, there would not be enough space for all who wish to leave.
> 
> Ironically, China, for all it has done to enable the present Korean crisis, may pose the best, last hope for many evacuees. With Korean, Japanese and American transport ships likely to be fully committed to the military conflict, the only other untapped Asian source of heavy amphibious sealift is China. Though often dismissed by military analysts as little more than a garnish for a "million-man swim" to Taiwan, China's amphibious assault fleet could rescue many stranded non-combatants. China's massive civilian fleet offers another possible resource. Plenty of Chinese ships will be available, able to respond if allowed to enter South Korean waters.
> 
> Over the course of the past month, the Philippines, one of many countries that lack the resources to carry out a timely evacuation of their Korean-based ex-patriots, has been debating how it could meet the challenge of transporting some 60,000 Filipino temporary workers out of a Korean crisis. For cases like this, where evacuation support will fall far short of demand, China's armada of over fifty relatively modern medium-range amphibious vessels, capable of moving over 20,000 people in a single, albeit uncomfortable and slow voyage, would be an enormous boon.
> 
> A Chinese rescue fleet poses a political, operational and symbolic headache for South Korea, the U.S., and Japan. Chinese assistance with a Korean evacuation would be an enormous political coup for Beijing. Even modest Chinese support during a high-profile humanitarian emergency could do a lot to blunt wider Asian concerns over China's naval expansion and territorial ambitions. And in the case of the Philippines, a timely humanitarian gesture by the People's Liberation Army's Navy would strengthen Chinese influence there and maybe even reconcile a festering territorial dispute over their contested South China Sea islets - to China's favor. But the defenders of South Korea would not have any other choice than to ask for China's assistance. No other help is available.
> 
> Chinese participation in a Korean contingency is the kind of scenario that makes U.S. policy makers in the region wince. But such are the ugly compromises that must be made if the U.S. and other countries fail to plan now, while there is still time to prepare, for how to get potentially-threatened nationals out before the Korean peninsula lurches over the precipice.
> 
> Image: Local residents from Yeonpyeong island arrive at the port in Inchon, west of Seoul, on a police vessel on November 24, 2010 after being evacuated the day after a military strike on the island by North Korea. By Yoshikazu Tsnuo/AFP/Getty.


----------



## OldSolduer

Ridgeline said:
			
		

> I actually did not see that as an attack, I saw it as a debate.  Your point however looses every ounce of credibility when you attack other people and their views.  There are many people who agree with my side.  I never called you a frickin moron because I am ... whats that word .... mature.
> 
> Either way, I am not going to argue with you over this




I can't see many people agreeing with you that a nuclear war on the Korean Peninsula would be a good thing. You have no humanity. If you regard that as a personal attack, so be it.
I used to teach NBCD in CFRS Cornwallis. I'm aware that Japan was nuked twice in anger. 

If you think a nuclear war is good for business, then  you are a moron.


----------



## midget-boyd91

Jim Seggie said:
			
		

> If you think a nuclear war is good for business, then  you are a moron.



I don't think anyone here believes that a nuclear war is desireable.

However if the tensions on the peninsula reach the boiling point, it would seem that it's best to happen in this time frame when the DPRK have a very small number of "weak" bombs with unreliable delivery methods.

 Another option would to have this reach the boiling point in ten or fifteen years when the DPRK has had another decade to  produce a higher number of more powerful bombs with much more reliable delivery.

 Seoul already has thousands of artillery pieces aimed at it... less than ten years after Japan was bombed, the U.S had already developed a nuclear warhead that could be fired from an artillery gun.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XT5jo7aZzTw


----------



## Old Sweat

I would suggest that NK would not use its relatively limited number of "weak" bombs on the battlefield. Without getting too technical, in theatre terms a nuclear warhead is a point weapon, even if the point may be in the nature of several square kilometres. Having grown up in an army that trained and planned to fight a tactical nuclear war in Europe, and having been trainined in nuclear weapons employment analysis, let me add that a major principle is to avoid concentrating so as to make an attractive nuclear target. At the same time, your aim is to force the enemy to concentrate. Nuclear warheads small enough to be fired from tube artillery are limited in their yield - nuke speak for destructive power usually measure in thousands of tons of TNT or KT. Thus a 155mm nuclear round might have a yield of no more than .5 or at the most 1 KT. For comparisons sake, the device used at Hiroshima is supposed to have had a yield of 20 KT, although I have seen different figures. For a small warhead one needs accurate intelligence re the target and its location. The prospect of literally tens if not hundreds of tactical nuclear weapons being fired back and forth is conceivable in a Strangelovian sort of way, but is almost guaranteed to lead to escalation. In my opinion it is not really a feasible option for sane opponents. The question is the NK leadership sane by our standards?

This is moot, because NK as far as I know only has a limited arsenal. (I also believe the US has disposed of its tactical nucelar arsenal, or that is what has been reported.) In my opinion, given the weapons and delivery means it possesses, NK would be more likely to target major population centres, and would probably make sure this was known by its potential enemies. If it has several Hiroshima-yield type warheads, even with crude delivery systems it potentially still could devastate South Korea's population and economy. It is not too much to estimate fatal casualties in six or even seven figures and a world wide economic stagger, if not a collapse.


----------



## Edward Campbell

Old Sweat said:
			
		

> I would suggest that NK would not use its relatively limited number of "weak" bombs on the battlefield. Without getting too technical, in theatre terms a nuclear warhead is a point weapon, even if the point may be in the nature of several square kilometres. Having grown up in an army that trained and planned to fight a tactical nuclear war in Europe, and having been trainined in nuclear weapons employment analysis, let me add that a major principle is to avoid concentrating so as to make an attractive nuclear target. At the same time, your aim is to force the enemy to concentrate. Nuclear warheads small enough to be fired from tube artillery are limited in their yield - nuke speak for destructive power usually measure in thousands of tons of TNT or KT. Thus a 155mm nuclear round might have a yield of no more than .5 or at the most 1 KT. For comparisons sake, the device used at Hiroshima is supposed to have had a yield of 20 KT, although I have seen different figures. For a small warhead one needs accurate intelligence re the target and its location. The prospect of literally tens if not hundreds of tactical nuclear weapons being fired back and forth is conceivable in a Strangelovian sort of way, but is almost guaranteed to lead to escalation. In my opinion it is not really a feasible option for sane opponents. The question is the NK leadership sane by our standards?
> 
> This is moot, because NK as far as I know only has a limited arsenal. (I also believe the US has disposed of its tactical nucelar arsenal, or that is what has been reported.) In my opinion, given the weapons and delivery means it possesses, NK would be more likely to target major population centres, and would probably make sure this was known by its potential enemies. If it has several Hiroshima-yield type warheads, even with crude delivery systems it potentially still could devastate South Korea's population and economy. It is not too much to estimate fatal casualties in six or even seven figures and a world wide economic stagger, if not a collapse.




I agree with you re: using nuclear weapons; for those who find them _unthinkable_ I say: "Go visit Hiroshima and Nagasaki." Both were attacked with relatively low yield nukes and both 'survived.'

My WAG - wild arsed guess is that NK, *IF* it has the means - delivery systems, will aim for Seoul with the one, two or three warheads it has. This will be a miscalculation on their part but, as far as I can see, it is the only _sane_ way to use nukes - against the highest value target. But: This will stop the war because China will, then - but only then, intervene to "prevent further bloodshed." A fairly large Chinese force - larger than anything the US can deliver to the Asian mainland in anything less than several months - will, quickly (weeks), occupy NK and parts of SK as the de facto _protector_ of a united Korea.

I repeat my estimate of China's aims in Korea:

1. *USA out* - off the Asian mainland;

2. *Korea united* under a democratic SK led government; and

3. Korean reconstruction funded by SK.

A non-nuclear war that entangles the USA _may_ be in China's interests. I'm not sure that the USA can get enough people and equipment into Korea (even as it tries to evacuate 150,000 US citizens and hundreds of thousands of others) in time to help the SK forces withstand a short sharp, but HUGE onslaught from the North. The North wins the war if it captures Seoul and drives the allied forces a few kms out/South of Seoul and puts them on the defensive. China, then, need not intervene militarily; it can act as a political _peacemaker_, forcing unification, initially - but not for long - under NK and forcing the US out.


----------



## Jarnhamar

Hence my idea to station some kind of weapon off the 200 mile mark and shoot down anything NK launches.  Like UMO points out, isn't it better to deal with this today than in 15 years?  NK leadership has pretty much prove itself to be insane, we can't really take an educated guess at how they will fight or what they will target using logic or common sense.

I don't want nuclear war but I also don't like having someone pointing a revolver at my head and playing with the hammer back and forth.

Maybe we could let wikileaks "leak" information that NK is actually our Allie and we're hiding our infidel nuclear weapons there- let NK deal with some suicide bombers for a while.


----------



## OldSolduer

This problem could have been dealt with many years ago, BUT our lace panty folk didn't want to. Hence we have a tin pot dictator of dubious sanity, threatening his fellow Koreans.


----------



## Nemo888

Jim Seggie said:
			
		

> This problem could have been dealt with many years ago, BUT our lace panty folk didn't want to. Hence we have a tin pot dictator of dubious sanity, threatening his fellow Koreans.



The time to attack was '98. 10% plus of the population had died from famine in the previous 4 years, the border was the most porous it has ever been and the power vacuum that Kim Il-Sung left when he died was yet to be properly filled. Now things have gotten back to "normal". Best to wait for Kim Jong-il to pass away or the next major famine.

DPRK's main weapon is controlling the information that gets put into citizens heads. They spend 25% of GDP on defense and the Army are treated better than other citizens. Fighting them militarily makes little sense. Why lose the initiative by entering a scenario they have been preparing for the last 50 years? Seasoned warriors keep the initiative and do not let their enemies make them react. If your enemy is wearing a helmet kick him in the balls.  Punching him in the head like he wants will just break your hand. Info ops would cost less and have more effect. Remember also that the brainwashed masses of DPRK are not our enemies. They are just fodder protecting the few thousand elite which a coup could have strung up on street poles in a week.


----------



## Brasidas

Jim Seggie said:
			
		

> This problem could have been dealt with many years ago, BUT our lace panty folk didn't want to. Hence we have a tin pot dictator of dubious sanity, threatening his fellow Koreans.



Bull.

It's not just not wanting to fight, and the immediate, primary threat isn't North Korea's handful of weak nukes. It's the artillery.

The minute the shooting starts, Seoul's toast.  Doesn't matter if the North Koreans get surprised, that artillery's not going to get surpressed short of killing one hell of a lot of South Korean civilians.

Waiting out until the North starts looking like it can be a threat to something other than Seoul's about more than just being a flaky pacifist.


----------



## Nemo888

Good point Brasidas.

Seoul itself is 10 million people and the surrounding National Capital Area is 24.5 million. About half of South Korea's population. All within the reach of DPRK artillery. Without Seoul there is no economy to pay for the reintegration of the Koreas. There is more to winning wars than shooting folk.


----------



## 57Chevy

What is wrong with the attached photo ?
 ____________________________________________________________________________________________

South Korea army to hold huge drill, North silent
article link

SEOUL - South Korea announced land and sea military exercises on Wednesday including its largest-ever live-fire drill near North Korea just as tension on the peninsula was beginning to ease after Pyongyang's attack on a southern island. 

The land drill, involving three dozen mobile artillery guns, six fighter jets, multiple launch rocket systems and 800 troops, the largest number of personnel in a single peace-time exercise, will take place on Thursday and is likely irritate the North. 

The scale of the drill and the timing, coming right after the tensely staged a live-fire exercise on Monday, indicate South Korea's conservative President Lee Myung-bak sees more political mileage in taking a tough military stance rather than reverting to dialogue, despite overtures from Pyongyang. 

Lee's government was heavily criticized at home for a perceived weak response to North Korea's shelling of the southern island of Yeonpyeong last month. 

"We'll be sure to deal a punishing blow if the North tries to repeat the kind of situation like the artillery shelling of Yeonpyeong," Brigadier General Ju Eun-shik said in a statement. 

article continues at link.....read more

Photo:
South Korean marines patrol on Yeonpyeong island, South Korea held further live-fire drills on Yeonpyeong Island on Monday, raising fears of all-out war, but the North did not retaliate. Instead, it offered to accept nuclear inspectors it has kicked out of the country before.
Photograph by: Lee Sang-hak/Yonhap, Reuters
                      (Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act)


----------



## larry Strong

57Chevy said:
			
		

> What is wrong with the attached photo ?



They all appear to have their hands over the muzzle of their weapons.


----------



## 57Chevy

N.Korea says ready to fight 'holy war' using nuclear deterrent
article link

SEOUL - North Korea's minister of armed forces said on Thursday its military was prepared to wage a "holy war" against the South using its nuclear deterrent after what he called Seoul's attempt to initiate conflict. 

Minister Kim Yong-chun repeated Pyongyang's charge that the South had been preparing to start a war by conducting live-fire drills off the west coast, speaking at a rally to mark leader Kim Jong-il's rise to the country's top military post 19 years ago. 

He was quoted by North Korea's KCNA news agency which regularly threatens the South but which had up to now been relatively restrained in its criticism of the miltiary drills. 

                      (Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act)


----------



## Jarnhamar

Brasidas said:
			
		

> Bull.
> 
> It's not just not wanting to fight, and the immediate, primary threat isn't North Korea's handful of weak nukes. It's the artillery.
> 
> The minute the shooting starts, Seoul's toast.  Doesn't matter if the North Koreans get surprised, that artillery's not going to get surpressed short of killing one hell of a lot of South Korean civilians.
> 
> Waiting out until the North starts looking like it can be a threat to something other than Seoul's about more than just being a flaky pacifist.



What about targetting the artillery.


----------



## Old Sweat

Grimaldus said:
			
		

> What about targetting the artillery.


According to press reports I have seen, the NK artillery is protected inside bunkers and emplacements dug through mountains. The sheer number of guns also provides a degree of protection, like a school of bait fish.


----------



## Jarnhamar

Obviously a job for space marines


----------



## Nemo888

You can get more done with balloons than bombs at the present time. 

The thousands of dvd's, tiny radios, Chinese Won($), bits of food and pamphlets telling North Korean citizens everything they are told is lies are like acid to the regime. I would  sponsor sending such balloons myself if I knew how. This is how you screw with DPRK.










I read a good testimonial of a defector from the DPRK. (Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea. Why do the worst dictators always use Democratic in their countries name? Always wondered about that.) He was a soldier and his buddy got an American made nail clipper. They all marveled at how well it cut. So precise and clean. Like nothing they had seen before. After that he thought about how well made America weapons must be. He defected a few months later.  

Another story  was of a ship captain that heard a South Korean sitcom broadcast  in which two women were fighting over a parking spot. A country with so many cars that there was no place to put them. Driven by young women. Young women can afford cars WTF??? He defected. My idea here is that every North Korean you make have an epiphany about who their real enemy is becomes and agitaror against the regime.

The famine has also started again. The market reforms that were bringing in food have been rescinded by the State revealuing the currency 5 times. All old currency is made invalid and has to be exchanged for new DPRK dollars. But only about 30$ per  person would be exchanged. The rest being useless paper. Some people actually threw it into the street or burned it. Burning currency is a capital crime because Kim Il-Sung's portrait is printed on some bills. The black market for food and all the aspiring entrepreneurs were wiped out overnight. Chinese traders stopped all shipments and the famine restarted in days. Things are bad and no one believes the propaganda anymore. People only stay in line because they are afraid for their families. DPRK has a tainted blood policy whereby three generations of that blood line are tainted. Subject to labour camps or prison. Parents, uncles, children, grandchildren, cousins, all are subject to torture and death if you are disloyal.


----------



## 57Chevy

We'll go nuclear, North warns South Korea

North Korea is prepared to wage a "holy war" against the south, including using its nuclear weapons, the country's armed forces minister warned on Thursday.

He issued the threat as South Korea staged a large show of force aimed at deterring further aggression by its volatile neighbour.

The North's defence chief, Kim Yong Chun, told a patriotic rally to celebrate the military achievements of the country's ailing dictator Kim Jong-il, that Pyongyang was "fully prepared to launch a sacred war" if the South encroached on its territory.

South Korea staged its largest military exercise of the year on Thursday exactly a month after a North Korean artillery bombardment against a South Korean island killed four, dramatically raising tensions on the peninsula.

The drills, conducted 30 miles south of the heavily armed border dividing North and South Korea, included around 800 troops, tanks, armoured personnel carriers, F15 fighter jets, artillery, multiple long-range rockets and helicopter gunships.

article link

Photo:
Two F-15K fighter jets drop bombs on a mountain target during the largest joint air and ground military exercises on the Seungjin Fire Training Field in mountainous Pocheon, 30 kilometres south of the tense land border with North Korea on December 23, 2010.
Photograph by: Wally Santana, AFP/Getty Images

                      (Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act)


----------



## GAP

S Korea and China defence chiefs to meet amid tension
Article Link
 26 December 2010 

South Korean and Chinese defence ministers are to meet in Beijing in February amid rising tension on the Korean peninsula, Seoul has said.

It provided no details of the talks, but the two sides are expected to discuss what Seoul describes as North Korea's hostile acts in recent months.

These include the deadly shelling of a South Korean border island.

China, the North's only major ally, is facing mounting pressure to encourage Pyongyang to show more restraint.
TV boast

On Sunday, defence officials said that South Korea's Defence Minister Kim Kwan-jin and his Chinese counterpart Liang Guanglie were organising talks in the Chinese capital in February, but added that details of the meeting agenda would be discussed later.

However, South Korea's Yonhap news agency quoted a defence ministry official in Seoul as saying the two ministers would "discuss regional security issues like the North's attack on the Cheonan warship and bombing on Yeonpyeong island".

The official - who was not named - was referring to the sinking of the vessel and deaths of 46 sailors in March, which Seoul has said was a torpedo attack by Pyongyang, and also the shelling of the Yeonpyeong island last month that left four South Koreans dead.

Pyongyang denies the South's claim that it sank the warship. It also says its shelling of the island was retaliation for a South Korean firing drill that dropped shells into North Korean territory.

Earlier this week, Seoul and Pyongyang again traded strong rhetoric.

The North threatened a "sacred war" against the South, whose military had been holding live-fire drills near the border. In response, the South warned of a "powerful response" to any attack from the North.
More on link


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## Nemo888

During the coldest winter in 30 years, with a prolonged and worsening famine, it looks like the the new emperor in waiting has no support from the military. The maneuvering that made Kim Jong-Il's sister a general a few months ago foreshadowed trouble. She is well known for assassinating enemies of the family(and being a raging alcoholic). Elder Kim knew his son would not be accepted. She purged the top brass. But it looks like it was not enough to keep everyone in line. Someone derailed his train of birthday goodies in Sinuiju. I can't remember anything like this since the entire DPRK 6th Army was disappeared for planning a coup. They were stationed in the city of Sinuiju when they were disbanded. Revolt is in the air in the Northern provinces. This is going to get interesting. The Kim monarchy may need a war to avoid being strung up on Pyongyang's street lamps. We need to let the DPRK's military know we are ready for brutal war so they turn on the Kims, but somehow make friendly overtures at the same time. Perhaps amnesty for brass who take part in the coup?

http://www.torontosun.com/news/world/2010/12/27/16679661.html



> Train carrying gifts for N.Korea heir derailed
> 
> By Sylvia Westall and Jack Kim, Reuters
> 
> 
> SEOUL -- A train packed with birthday gifts for North Korea's leader-in-waiting Kim Jong-un derailed this month in a possible act of sabotage, a Seoul-based radio station which broadcasts across the border reported on Monday.
> 
> Open Radio for North Korea, a non-profit station which often cites sources in the reclusive, impoverished North, said the train laden with gifts including televisions and watches came off the rails on Dec. 11 near North Korea's border with China.
> 
> "The security service has been in an emergency situation because a train departing Sinuiju and headed for Pyongyang derailed on Dec. 11," the radio station quoted a source in the security service in North Phyongan province as saying.
> 
> The city of Sinuiju is a North Korean trading gateway.
> 
> "The tracks and rail beds are so old it is possible there was decay in the wood or nails that secured the tracks could have been dislodged but the extent of damage to the tracks and the timing of the incident points to a chance that someone intentionally damaged the tracks," the source said.
> 
> "It's highly likely that it was someone who is opposed to succession to Kim Jong-un," the source said, according to the radio station.
> 
> Very little is known about Kim Jong-un, the youngest son of ailing leader Kim Jong-il. In his mid-20s, he was appointed to key military and government positions this year, suggesting that he is the chosen successor. His birthday is believed to be Jan. 8.
> 
> His father appears to have lavish tastes. This month a Viennese court found an Austrian man guilty of selling luxury goods believed to be destined for Kim Jong-il in a yacht deal worth 3.3 million euros. The deal included several top-end Mercedes-Benz S-Class cars and musical instruments such as a Steinway grand piano, the court heard.
> 
> The sale of luxury goods to North Korea is banned under a U.N. resolution in response to the country's nuclear testing program but Kim is said to hold opulent receptions where he displays yachts and other expensive items procured abroad.


----------



## gun runner

And yet his people starve...sad.


----------



## Nemo888

Nothing says Commie like 630$ a bottle Hennessy Cognac while you citizens starve. He spends about 700,000$ a year on it.


----------



## IBM

Nemo888 said:
			
		

> Nothing says Commie like 630$ a bottle Hennessy Cognac while you citizens starve. He spends about 700,000$ a year on it.



Oh I don't know, maybe one day Li'Kim will feel generous enough to share a bottle with one of his starving slaves countrymen. ;D

Then again a bottle of cognac doesn't really do much when you are starving to death...


----------



## 57Chevy

South Korea rejects North Korea offer of dialogue
article link

SEOUL, Jan 10, 2011 (AFP) - South Korea on Monday rejected North Korea’s latest offer of dialogue, saying the communist country must be judged on its deeds rather than its words.

The North made what it called a formal proposal Saturday for an "unconditional and early opening" of talks within weeks.

The latest offer followed an apparent easing in tensions, which soared after the North shelled a South Korean border island on November 23 and killed four people including civilians.

But Seoul’s unification ministry, which handles cross-border relations, rejected the latest overture.

"It’s hard to consider it as a sincere offer of dialogue," said spokesman Chun Hae-Sung, adding the North should first show it is serious about denuclearisation.

"North Korea must also take responsible steps our people can accept" over the November shelling and the sinking of a South Korean warship in March last year, he said.

"The door for dialogue is open if North Korea shows a sincere attitude," Chun added.

The South says the North torpedoed the ship near the disputed Yellow Sea border with the loss of 46 lives, a charge Pyongyang denies.

Tensions have been acute since the shelling, the first attack on a civilian area in the South since the 1950-53 war. The South has staged a series of military exercises in a show of force.

Pyongyang’s Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of the Fatherland said Saturday there was "neither conditionality in the North’s proposal for dialogue nor need to cast any doubt about its real intention".

                                   (Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act)


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## 57Chevy

Skepticism abounds as rival Koreas meet for talks

SEOUL - Military officers from the rival Koreas met at their heavily armed border on Tuesday for their first talks since North Korea attacked a southern island in November, with analysts skeptical about the North's motives.

The talks clear one of the roadblocks to a possible resumption of six-way talks aimed at ending North Korea's nuclear-weapons program, last held more than two years ago when the North walked out, announcing the process dead.

North Korean Colonel Ri Son-kwon patted his counterpart from the South, Col. Moon Sang-gyun, on the shoulder and they shook hands before they started negotiations at the Panmunjom truce village, video footage showed. They have met several times over the years.

"When they (North Korea) need something, which usually means money, they first drive tensions high, then switch to the charm offensive and start talks in order to get something," said Andrei Lankov, a North Korea expert at Kookmin University in Seoul.

"If they do not get what they need, they turn the switch back to the confrontational mood."

The meeting is the first between the rivals since November, when the North bombarded the island of Yeonpyeong in disputed waters off the west coast killing four people.

South Korea also accused the North of torpedoing one of its navy ships, killing 46 sailors, in March. Pyongyang denied involvement and says the South provoked the shelling of Yeonpyeong by firing artillery rounds into its water during a military drill.
The defence ministry in Seoul gave no further details about Tuesday's meeting.

Under pressure from the United States and China, host of the six-party talks, the neighbours have toned down their combative rhetoric over the past month and agreed to talk.

The two Koreas are still technically at war, because an armistice not a treaty ended their 1950-53 civil conflict, and have been involved in dozens of deadly confrontations over the years, including cross-border commando raids, political assassinations, an airliner bombing and military clashes.

Beijing and Washington had set inter-Korean dialogue as a prerequisite to restart six-party talks. The North has said it wants to return to six-party negotiations, but Seoul and Washington have questioned its sincerity about denuclearising — pointing to its revelations last November about a uranium enrichment program as proof.

Pyongyang says the uranium program, which potentially opens a second route to make an atomic bomb after its plutonium program, is for peaceful energy-making purposes.

Seoul and Washington want the UN Security Council to punish the North for the program because it contravenes past resolutions, whereas Beijing favours dealing with the matter in the six-party talks which also involve Japan and Russia.

Washington and Seoul are expected to take the issue to the UN Security Council this month, but experts say Beijing, which is a permanent member of the Security Council, is unlikely to back any new resolution against the North.

The South's Wi Sung-lac is due to visit Beijing on Thursday to discuss the best approach to deal with the North.

Seoul also says its poor neighbour, squeezed by UN sanctions for nuclear and missile tests, only wants to restart six-party talks to get aid. The South says it will only resume economic help when the North totally dismantles its atomic program.

Tuesday's colonel-level talks are aimed at setting the time and agenda for higher-level dialogue, possibly between their defence ministers. Officials say it may take several rounds of working-level talks to prepare for the senior meeting.

                             (Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act)


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## 57Chevy

Korean talks end in deadlock with North
Talks between North and South Korea appeared to end in an impasse on Tuesday after the South ruled out further meetings until Pyongyang took responsibility for recent attacks on its neighbour.

The low-level military talks, which were billed as paving the way to higher-level peace talks, were the first since North Korean artillery bombarded South Korea's Yeonpyeong island last November, killing four people and bringing the peninsula to the brink of war. South Korea wants the regime of Kim Jong-il to apologize for the attack and the torpedoing of a warship in the Yellow Sea last March which cost 46 South Korean sailors their lives - an attack North Korea denies.

"Our stance has not changed. A higher-level military meeting will be possible only if North Korea takes responsible measures for the attacks on Yeonpyeong Island and the Cheonan warship and promises not to carry out any more provocations," a defence ministry spokesman said.

No further details of the carefully choreographed meeting in the Korean Demilitarized Zone were announced. Defence sources quoted by the Korea Times said that Pyongyang had not given ground over the two incidents.

Skeptical South Korean analysts suggested that North Korea was using the talks to win back economic aid that has been cut off since illegal nuclear weapons test in 2009. "When they [North Korea] need something, which usually means money, they first drive tensions high, then switch to the charm offensive and start talks in order to get something," said Andrei Lankov, a North Korea expert at Kookmin University.

                                   (Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act)


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## a_majoor

One response by the ROK:

http://nextbigfuture.com/2011/02/south-korea-has-robotic-super-gun-super.html#more



> *South Korea has a robotic "Super Gun" the Super Aegis 2*
> 
> 1. Billed by its manufacturers DoDaam of South Korea as a "Total Security Solution," the Super Aegis is an automated turret system that supports a variety of weapons, from a standard machine-gun to a surface-to-air missile.
> 
> It is designed to repel an attacker from up to 3 kilometers away, using sophisticated thermal imaging software and camera systems to lock onto a human-sized target even in the dead of night
> 
> The system requires no human presence. It's all operated robotically from a distant control room.
> Screenshot from a video showing a hail of shots from a supergun
> 
> DoDaam Systems Vice-President Park Sung-ho says the high-tech weapon could become an integral component in South Korea's ongoing military face-off with North Korea across the heavily armed Demilitarised Zone.
> 
> [Park Sung-ho, Vice President, Dodaam Systems]:
> "We have certain circumstance where North and South Korea are confronting each other and currently soldiers are operating a lot of military equipment. If the job can be replaced by non-human guarding and monitoring robots, it could reduce the number of labour forces and military forces. And it could also reduce human losses under real combat situations."
> 
> Super aEgis 2 detects objects with two cameras: a low-light camera and a thermal imaging camera which senses body temperature.
> 
> A laser range finder and gyroscopic stabiliser keep the weapon steady in high winds.


----------



## 57Chevy

57Chevy said:
			
		

> "When they need something, which usually means money, they first drive tensions high, then switch to the charm offensive and start talks in order to get something,"


That sounds to me like some little "kids strategy" ;D

Kim Jong Il's budget birthday bash <----link
With North Korea struggling to feed its people, the "dear leader" had to settle for a scaled-down celebration this year (and only one $16 million yacht)
North Korea's Kim Jong Il turned 69 on Wednesday, but his birthday wasn't as spectacularly happy as it's been in the past. With the communist nation struggling to feed its 23 million people amid food shortages, an unusually harsh winter, and stiff economic sanctions, Kim's party planners slashed the budget for the traditionally lavish bash. Here, a quick guide to the relatively frugal festivities:  

need to read more, go to link

Photo:
North Koreans celebrated Kim Jong-Il's 69th birthday in a less-than-festive mood, given that the state canceled their annual food bonuses. Photo: Corbis 
                                   (Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act)


----------



## a_majoor

More developments from the DPRK. It looks like they are still going for the blackmail option:

http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/how-about-adding-a-north-korea-crisis-to-the-mix/?print=1



> *How About Adding a North Korea Crisis to the Mix?*
> Posted By Dan Miller On February 26, 2011 @ 12:00 am In Uncategorized | 15 Comments
> 
> With much of the rest of the world — Egypt, Iran, Libya, and others — in escalating turmoil and with other potential hot spots getting hotter, events on the Korean peninsula [1] may well be getting less coordinated attention from the Obama administration even than they normally do, and even than they got when the still simmering Korean mess erupted late last year.
> 
> More recently, the Obama administration found itself wallowing in bad intelligence and conflicting administration statements as to Egypt [2]. That deficiency continues even as to Libya [3], the current hot spot de jour; the worldwide economic [4]consequences of the situation there may be very great. As noted here [3]:
> 
> No direct condemnation of the Qaddafi regime. No expression of support for the demonstrators. No hint of action on our part — no immediate economic embargo, no threats against any individuals involved in the atrocities, no call for a U.N. Security Council meeting, no sign of possible NATO enforcement of a no-fly zone, no demand that the border be opened for humanitarian aid. Instead, the State Department is trying to “convey a message” to the Libyan government.
> 
> This is your State Department at work. Surely there are some in the White House — I think there are some — who are cringing at such an absence of moral clarity on the part of the U.S. government and at such a failure of American leadership. Let’s hope they persuade the president to step forward very soon to overrule the State Department, and to put the United States, in both speech and deed, strongly and unequivocally on the side of decency and freedom.
> 
> The dithering must stop; whether it will is unknown and unknowable.
> 
> The situation in Pakistan is now heating up with probable consequences greater than potential embarrassment over recent unofficial confirmations [5] that Raymond Allen Davis — for whom Pakistan had refused to honor diplomatic immunity demanded by the United States — “had been working as a CIA security contractor for the U.S. consulate in Lahore.” Further protests in Pakistan have resulted and the already shaky United States-Pakistan alliance seems to be fraying perhaps beyond repair.
> 
> Venezuela [6] may become another hot spot before very long. When might the situation in Israel [7] explode into an open and declared war? That situation is continuously exacerbated perhaps beyond redemption by the mixed signals the Obama administration continues to give; that is the only consistency it has shown. Is the “administration simply too incompetent to understand the significance of its actions”?
> 
> Now is the time actually to pay attention and to anticipate further unrest in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK or North Korea). The rulers of the DPRK are malign; they are not stupid and seem more adept at seeing out than we are at seeing in. Their slaves don’t know much about the world beyond the borders, but the rulers do. As the situation in the DPRK continues to descend into anarchy, its temporary avoidance will likely require dramatically increased military excitement. While the Obama administration’s fleeting attention to Asia is further diminished [8] by developments elsewhere, it may become too late. Even the glorious mess in Wisconsin might have to get along without further help from the Obama administration.
> 
> While continuing to enhance [9] its already firm relationship with Iran, the DPRK continues to experience increasing difficulties, most self-inflicted. Widespread starvation was and remains bad but now there is also rampant hoof and mouth disease [10], which will lead to even more starvation. It began in Pyongyang, and “a guard post between Pyongyang and Pyongsong is preventing vehicles from entering the capital. … Pyongyang was the first location where the disease broke out”:
> 
> As pig farms in Pyongyang run by the party and the Army’s Guard Command were among those affected, the regime was reluctant to admit the outbreak, RFA said. It tried to contain the disease only with pesticides and lime, leading to rapid spread to neighboring provinces such as Hwanghae and Gangwon.
> 
> “Koksan in Hwanghae Province is home to many military pig farms,” a North Korean source said. “If the area has been affected the military must have suffered a great deal of damage.” The North in the report said vaccination efforts with a homegrown vaccine made little difference.
> 
> However, there are claims that the outbreak is giving North Koreans an opportunity to eat meat. RFA said as soon as a pig was spotted drooling or staggering in Gangwon Province, residents immediately culled it for sale in the market. That caused a drop in pork prices in the province, leading to an influx of buyers from as far afield as South Pyongan Province, it added.
> 
> Free North Korea Radio said that on leader Kim Jong-il’s birthday last Thursday, meat from infected cattle and pigs was distributed to residents in Daehongdan, Ryanggang Province. A North Korean defector who was a veterinarian said when livestock contract FMD in North Korea, they are not buried but eaten.
> 
> Animal hoof and mouth disease is different from human foot and mouth disease and the diseases are not transmissible [11] from animals to humans or vice versa. However, the responsible viruses may mutate and, in any event, humans can carry highly contagious [12] animal hoof and mouth disease to other animals. For that reason and others, it is necessary to dispose of the animal carcasses in ways likely to minimize spread of the contagion; distributing the meat and other body parts for sale, consumption, and other purposes throughout the country will only accelerate the spread of the disease.
> 
> Previously, it had been reported [13] that the boundaries of the area within the capital city of Pyongyang had been redrawn to reduce the area dramatically; that had been attributed to food shortages and to the strain of providing the extra benefits normally given to Pyongyang residents. “About 500,000 people were excluded as Pyongyang citizens who have been relatively well-fed despite chronic food shortages.” The sudden diminution of the miserable “well-being” of the already very poor can have great destabilizing consequences.
> 
> “Global warming” appears to be harassing North Korea’s west coast [14] and in consequence deliveries (presumably from China) have been infrequent for about forty-five days; the problem is expected to continue for another ten days or so:
> 
> The North’s state media reported last month that temperatures in December and January had been markedly colder than usual, causing hardship for “the people’s lives.”
> 
> South Korean humanitarian aid groups that maintain contact with the North said the harsh conditions had severely compounded existing malnutrition and shelter problems.
> 
> Pyongyang has reportedly stepped up its calls for aid from the international community in recent weeks amid what the aid groups consider a worsening humanitarian situation.
> 
> Despite or perhaps because of these conditions, North Korea has moved about half [15] of its three hundred Kong Bang hovercraft south to a port close to disputed islands near South Korea. Each carries a platoon of soldiers, about thirty, and “can travel about 250 kilometers, at a speed of about 80 kilometers an hour”:
> 
> Lack of fuel and spare parts limits training for these hovercraft, so any combat use would essentially be with poorly trained and inexperienced crews. Originally intended for delivering commandos quickly, the hovercraft are fast, but noisy and very vulnerable to any kind of gunfire or explosives.
> 
> A base [16] for “about 70 hovercraft is reaching completion at Koampo, South Hwanghae Province, 50 to 60 km from Baeknyeong Island in the West Sea.”
> 
> Meanwhile, and probably as a way to ransom “humanitarian aid,” the DPRK is completing a tunnel needed for another nuclear test [17]. It is in North Hamgyong Province, the site of two nuclear tests in 2006 and 2009, and has progressed “to a depth of 800 m. Another 200 m is all that is needed to conduct a third nuclear test. The DPRK has also completed a new missile launch pad in Tongchang-ri in North Pyongyan Province”:
> 
> Pyongyang is probably surprised by the steadfast stance of the South Korean and U.S. governments since the launch of the Lee Myung-bak administration, despite its provocations. As a result, it may well be cooking up a scheme that it hopes will shock Seoul and Washington. In other words, the next provocation could be the worst one so far. Experts speculate North Korea could attempt multiple attacks simultaneously including a nuclear test, a terror attack on a South Korean city and property, and assassination of a South Korean official.
> 
> Admiral Robert Willard, head of the U.S. Pacific Command, recently warned of more DPRK military provocations [18] within the next few months, and on February 18 South Korean Prime Minister Kim Hwang-sik issued a similar warning [19]. The DPRK’s defense minister last month demanded direct two-party talks with the United States and in doing so warned Secretary of Defense Gates of a nuclear catastrophe [20] should they not occur. The DPRK military seems increasingly [21] to be calling the shots in foreign relations. China [15] has continued to push for six-party talks and has also been blocking efforts [22] to have the United Nations Security Council publish a report on the DPRK’s nuclear program. China, as is customary, is far more concerned about her own problems than those of others and will do just about anything she can to avoid hordes of North Koreans crossing the border to attempt to resettle in China.
> 
> The situation in North Korea will almost certainly continue to worsen for the “little people” there as long as the Kim regime remains in power. Under a purely military regime it seems unlikely to be noticeably better, and in either event further military attacks on South Korea, further nuclear development, and further bomb and missile tests are quite likely. Provision of “humanitarian aid” and amelioration of economic sanctions, in place due to long continued and now expanding nuclear development and nuclear weapons testing, would help the “little people” only very temporarily and marginally if at all while rewarding the regime and extending its lease on life. That consequence has been demonstrated multiple times and now, when there are at least some small signs [23] that popular revolt may be brewing, is not the time to give it another shot while hoping for change for the better. Nor is it the time to do whatever China tells us — her debtor — to do [24].
> 
> Whatever happens in North Korea seems unlikely to wait until 2013 when we may have a new and far better president of the United States; it will come much sooner than that. New and wiser heads than are now leading advising an uninterested [2] President Obama, who cares far more about his domestic initiatives, must caution against continued dithering and stumbling aimlessly down the path of least resistance toward political expediency. Of equal importance, they must tell him how and try to push him in the right direction. Unless these cautions and advice have the desired effect those advisers must resign and their advice must be revealed candidly and ventilated without reservation in House and Senate hearings.
> 
> Being a community organizer [25] is pretty easy; despite President Obama’s best efforts to bring to the presidency such talents as he developed in that capacity, it’s really tough being the president. The keys to making it less tough and less dangerous for the United States and her allies are available to President Obama. It is up to him to use them; if he fails to do so, it is unfortunately up to others to try in the only lawful ways at their disposal to force his hand.
> 
> Article printed from Pajamas Media: http://pajamasmedia.com
> 
> URL to article: http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/how-about-adding-a-north-korea-crisis-to-the-mix/
> 
> URLs in this post:
> 
> [1] the Korean peninsula: http://pajamasmedia.com../../../../../blog/what-does-koreas-chaos-portend-for-the-united-states/?singlepage=true
> [2] Egypt: http://pajamasmedia.com../../../../../blog/dithering-wont-keep-the-peace/?singlepage=true
> [3] Libya: http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/pathetic_550579.html
> [4] worldwide economic : http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b62b7532-3e79-11e0-9e8f-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=crm/email/2011222/nbe/ExclusiveComment/product#axzz1EgltOl9R
> [5] unofficial confirmations: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110221/ap_on_re_us/us_pakistain_detained_american;_ylt=Ag7IjnlGIKare86AwJcgTnms0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTN1YnJrMGQ5BGFzc2V0A2FwLzIwMTEwMjIxL3VzX3Bha2lzdGFpbl9kZXRhaW5lZF9hbWVyaWNhbgRjY29kZQNtb3N0cG9wdWxhcgRjcG9zAzIEcG9zAzgEcHQDaG9tZV9jb2tlBHNlYwN5bl90b3Bfc3RvcnkEc2xrA2FycmVzdGVkdXNvZg--
> [6] Venezuela: http://daniel-venezuela.blogspot.com/2011/02/good-devil-moves-out-of-venezuela.html
> [7] Israel: http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Columnists/Article.aspx?id=209264
> [8] diminished: http://www.chinapost.com.tw/commentary/the-china-post/special-to-the-china-post/2011/02/15/291134/Egypt-may.htm
> [9] enhance: http://www.isna.ir/ISNA/NewsView.aspx?ID=News-1720688&Lang=E
> [10] hoof and mouth disease: http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2011/02/21/2011022101243.html
> [11] transmissible: http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/dvrd/revb/enterovirus/hfhf.htm
> [12] highly contagious: http://www.answers.com/topic/foot-and-mouth-disease
> [13] been reported: http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gqyyQCecyQjMKDYNHOi4DKceFgYA?docId=CNG.e4c0f8b05d70ed1feaeb1c2cf03f5035.171
> [14] west coast: http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2011/02/116_81828.html
> [15] moved about half: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2011/02/21/47/0301000000AEN20110221001900315F.HTML
> [16] base: http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2011/02/21/2011022100391.html
> [17] another nuclear test: http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2011/02/21/2011022101263.html
> [18] military provocations: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12503179
> [19] similar warning: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/south-korea-says-more-attacks-possible-report-2011-02-17
> [20] nuclear catastrophe: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2011/02/21/57/0301000000AEN20110221008900315F.HTML
> [21] seems increasingly: http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2011/02/22/2011022200347.html
> [22] blocking efforts: http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/global-filipino/world/02/18/11/china-blocking-un-report-nkorea-diplomat
> [23] small signs: http://pajamasmedia.com../../../../../blog/happy-birthday-dear-leader-kim-jong-il/?singlepage=true
> [24] tells us — her debtor — to do: http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CNG.ae2d2f54b4997246bb7b180d2736bac1.e1&show_article=1
> [25] community organizer: http://pajamasmedia.com../../../../../victordavishanson/but-thats-why-community-organizers-do/?singlepage=true


----------



## CougarKing

While the world's attention is focused on both Japan and Libya...



> *North Korea Builds A Bigger Little Shark*
> 
> March 28, 2011: North Korea has apparently been building an improved version of its *Song (Shark) class mini-sub*. The 250 ton Sang is actually a coastal sub modified for special operations. The original design is a 34 meter (105 feet) long boat with a snorkel and a top submerged speed of 17 kilometers an hour (or 13 kilometers an hour when at periscope depth using the snorkel to run the diesel engines). Top surface speed is 13 kilometers an hour. Max diving depth is 150 meters (465 feet) and the boat is designed to rest on the ocean bottom (useful when trying to avoid enemy search). There is a crew of 15, plus either six scuba swimmer commandos, or a dozen men who can go ashore in an inflatable boat. Some Songs have two or four torpedo tubes. Max endurance is about eight days. The new model is 39 meters (121 feet) long and is believed to have a max submerged speed of 27 kilometers an hour. *Over 40 Songs have been built so far, and one was captured by South Korea when it ran aground in 1996. At least half a dozen are of the new model.
> North Korea has a fleet of over 80 mini-subs, plus about 24 older Russian type conventional boats (based on late-World War II German designs, as adapted for Russian service as the Whiskey and Romeo class). China helped North Korea set up its own submarine building operation, which included building some of the large Romeo class subs.* North Korea got the idea for minisubs from Russia, which has had them for decades. North Korea has developed several mini-sub designs, most of them available to anyone with the cash to pay.
> 
> The most popular mini-sub is the* M100D*, a 76 ton, 19 meter (58 foot) long boat that has a crew of four and can carry eight divers and their equipment. The North Koreans got the idea for the M100D when they bought the plans for a 25 ton Yugoslav mini-sub in the 1980s. Only four were built, apparently as experiments to develop a larger North Korean design. There are to be over 30 M100Ds, and they can be fitted with two torpedoes that are carried externally, but fired from inside the sub.
> North Korea is believed to have fitted some of the Songs and M100Ds with acoustic tiles, to make them more difficult to detect by sonar. This technology was popular with the Russians, and that's where the North Koreans were believed to have got the technology.
> The most novel design is a submersible speedboat. This 13 meter (40 foot) boat looks like a speedboat, displaces ten tons and can carry up to eight people. It only submerges to a depth of about 3.2 meters (ten feet). Using a snorkel apparatus (a pipe type device to bring in air and expel diesel engine fumes), the boat can move underwater. In 1998, a South Korean destroyer sank one of these. A follow-on class displaced only five tons, and could carry six people (including one or two to run the boat). At least eight of these were believed built.
> The use of a North Korea midget sub to sink a South Korean corvette in March, 2010, forced the United States, and South Korea, to seriously confront the problems involved in finding these small subs in coastal waters. This is a difficult task, because the target is small, silent (moving using battery power) and in a complex underwater landscape, that makes sonar less effective.
> There are some potential solutions. After the Cold War ended in 1991, the U.S. recognized that these coastal operations would become more common. So, in the 1990s, the U.S. developed the Advanced Deployable System (ADS) for   detecting non-nuclear submarines in coastal waters. The ADS is portable, and can quickly be flown to where it is needed. ADS is believed to be in South Korea. ADS basically adapts the popular Cold War SOSUS system (many powerful listening devices surrounding the major oceans, and analyzing the noises to locate submarines) developed by the United States.
> ADS consists of battery powered passive (they just listen) sensors that are battery powered and deployed by ship along the sea bottom in coastal waters. A fiber optic cable goes from the sensors (which look like a thick cable) back to shore, where a trailer containing computers and other electronics, and the ADS operators, runs the system. ADS has done well in tests, but it has never faced the North Korean mini-subs.
> 
> link: link


----------



## CougarKing

link



> NEW YORK (Reuters) - *North Korea and Iran appear to have been regularly exchanging ballistic missile technology in violation of U.N. sanctions, according to a confidential U.N. report obtained by Reuters on Saturday.
> 
> The report said the illicit technology transfers had "trans-shipment through a neighboring third country." That country was China, several diplomats told Reuters on condition of anonymity.*
> 
> The report was submitted to the Security Council by a U.N. Panel of Experts, a group that monitors compliance with U.N. sanctions imposed on Pyongyang after it conducted two nuclear tests in 2006 and 2009.
> 
> The U.N. sanctions included a ban on trade in nuclear and missile technology with North Korea, as well as an arms embargo. They also banned trade with a number of North Korean firms and called for asset freezes and travel bans on some North Korean individuals.
> 
> "Prohibited ballistic missile-related items are suspected to have been transferred between the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea) and the Islamic Republic of Iran on regular scheduled flights of Air Koryo and Iran Air," the report said.
> 
> "For the shipment of cargo, like arms and related materiel, whose illicit nature would become apparent on any cursory physical inspection, (North) Korea seems to prefer chartered cargo flights," it said.
> 
> It added that the aircraft tended to fly "from or to air cargo hubs which lack the kind of monitoring and security to which passenger terminals and flights are now subject."
> 
> Several Security Council diplomats said China was unhappy about the report and might not agree to release it to the public. At the moment, only the 15 council members have official access to the document.
> 
> One of the independent experts on the panel is from China and diplomats said he never endorsed the report.
> 
> Beijing has prevented the publication of expert panel reports on North Korea and Sudan in the past. Earlier this week, Russia took similar steps to suppress an equally damning U.N. expert panel report on Iran.
> 
> The spokesman for China's U.N. mission was not available for comment.
> 
> SIMILAR WARHEADS
> 
> Further evidence of Iran's cooperation with North Korea on missile technology came during a military parade in October 2010, the report said, when North Korea displayed a new warhead for its Nodong missile.
> 
> The warhead had "a strong design similarity with the Iranian Shahab-3 triconic warhead."
> 
> The expert panel said there appeared to be no compelling evidence that Myanmar had been developing a secret nuclear program with the help of North Korea, an allegation that had been raised previously by the group.
> 
> But it did not dismiss the allegations and suggested "extreme caution" might be needed to prevent North Korean-Myanmar cooperation from becoming proliferation.
> 
> The allegations are due partly to attempts by the former Burma to acquire items that can be used in a nuclear program.
> 
> "While acknowledging the possibility that Myanmar was the end user of this dual-use equipment, several experts also raised the possibility that it was serving as a trans-shipment point for delivery to (North Korea)," the report said.
> 
> The report said the possibility of exports of weapons-grade nuclear material from North Korea or nuclear technology to other countries remained a concern and presented "new challenges to international non-proliferation efforts."
> 
> U.S., Israeli and European governments have said that North Korea was helping Syria build a nuclear reactor that Israel destroyed in 2007. Damascus denies the charge, which is being investigated by the U.N. nuclear watchdog.
> 
> In its report, the panel said North Korea's uranium enrichment problem, which Pyongyang says is for civilian purposes, was "primarily for military purposes."
> 
> It added that North Korea "should be compelled to abandon its uranium enrichment program and that all aspects of the program should be placed under international monitoring."
> 
> The report also said there were concerns about safety at North Korea's Yongbyon nuclear complex. It said "safety issues should be discussed an integral part of the denuclearization of (North Korea)."
> 
> It added that "reckless decommissioning or dismantlement at Yongbyon could cause an environmental disaster."
> 
> (Reporting by Louis Charbonneau; Editing by Laura MacInnis and Peter Cooney)


----------



## FactorXYZ

Uh oh  :-\


----------



## dinicthus

Reminds me of WWII and Hitler. If just, what, six people rose up and sacrificed themselves to kill the Kim So Mentally Ill clan, N. Korea would change.

Easy to have a reign of terror when everyone is well, scared.

Give me liberty.


----------



## 57Chevy

anyone said:
			
		

> Easy to have a reign of terror when everyone is well, scared.



I'm not too sure about that. 

Kim Jong Il's cult of personality is solely out of respect for Kim Il-sung or out of fear of punishment for failure to pay homage. Media and government sources from outside of North Korea generally support this view, while North Korean government sources say that it is genuine hero worship. The song "No Motherland Without You", sung by the KPA State Merited Choir, was created especially for Kim in 1992 and is one of the most popular tunes in the country.    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Jong-il

Well.....that's strange eh




			
				anyone said:
			
		

> Give me liberty.



You mean like this guy  ;D

Kim Il-Sung (Communist Dictator)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LXAkGjSuCPw


----------



## a_majoor

The DPRK has managed to create a virtual bubble in which all discourse must take place. This essay about a "preference cascade" suggests that efforts to break the bubble (through a multiplicity of means, everything from airdropping solar powered radios to distributing _Samisdat_, to use two simple examples) will have far more powerful results than attempts to destroy the Kim family. On the other hand, it is unclear just where the preference cascade will end, the normal result is chaos and the "Man on the White Horse" who promises to re establish order:

http://www.ideasinactiontv.com/tcs_daily/2002/03/patriotism-and-preferences.html



> *Patriotism and Preferences*
> Post a Comment
> 
> By Glenn Harlan Reynolds - March 13, 2002 12:00 AM
> 
> Everyone seems to be amazed that the flags are still up, six months after the World Trade Center and Pentagon attacks. Have Americans suddenly become more patriotic?
> 
> Probably not. More likely, they always have been - they just didn't realize that it was okay to show it.
> 
> The muting of open patriotism after the Vietnam era may have been a case of what social scientists call "preference falsification": One in which social pressures cause people to express sentiments that differ from those they really feel. As social scientist Timur Kuran noted in his 1995 book Private Truths, Public Lies, there are all sorts of reasons, good and bad, that lead people not to show how they truly feel. People tend to read social signals about what is approved and what is disapproved behavior and, in general, to modify their conduct accordingly. Others then rely on this behavior to draw wrong conclusions about what people think, and allow those conclusions to shape their own actions.
> 
> Oh, not always - and there are always rebels (though often social "rebels" are really just conforming to a different standard). But when patriotism began to be treated as uncool, people who wanted to be cool, or at least to seem cool, stopped demonstrating patriotism, even if they felt it.
> 
> When this happened, other people were influenced by the example. In what's known as a "preference cascade," the vanishing of flags and other signs of patriotism from the homes, cars and businesses of the style-setters caused a lot of other people to go along with the trend, perhaps without even fully realizing it, a trend that only strengthened with the politicization of flag displays in several 1980s political campaigns.
> 
> The result was a situation in which a lot of people's behavior didn't really match their beliefs, but merely their beliefs about what was considered acceptable. Such situations are unstable, since a variety of shocks can cause people to realize the difference and to suddenly feel comfortable about closing the gap.
> 
> That's what the September 11 attacks did. This time last year, you didn't see many American flags on cars in my faculty parking garage. The people who didn't have them on their cars weren't necessarily unpatriotic - but displaying a flag on one's car was associated with particular political and social categories that aren't especially popular on campuses. After 9/11,enough people started flying flags to make other people feel safe about doing it too. Now you can see a lot of flags on the cars in that garage. Have people become more patriotic? Maybe. But more likely they've just become more willing to show it.
> 
> *This illustrates, in a mild way, the reason why totalitarian regimes collapse so suddenly. (Click here for a more complex analysis of this and related issues). Such regimes have little legitimacy, but they spend a lot of effort making sure that citizens don't realize the extent to which their fellow-citizens dislike the regime. If the secret police and the censors are doing their job, 99% of the populace can hate the regime and be ready to revolt against it - but no revolt will occur because no one realizes that everyone else feels the same way.*
> 
> This works until something breaks the spell, and the discontented realize that their feelings are widely shared, at which point the collapse of the regime may seem very sudden to outside observers - or even to the citizens themselves. Claims after the fact that many people who seemed like loyal apparatchiks really loathed the regime are often self-serving, of course. But they're also often true: Even if one loathes the regime, few people have the force of will to stage one-man revolutions, and when preferences are sufficiently falsified, each dissident may feel that he or she is the only one, or at least part of a minority too small to make any difference.
> 
> One interesting question is whether a lot of the hardline Arab states are like this. Places like Iraq, Syria, or Saudi Arabia spend a lot of time telling their citizens that everyone feels a particular way, and punishing those who dare to differ, which has the effect of encouraging people to falsify their preferences. But who knows? Given the right trigger, those brittle authoritarian regimes might collapse overnight, with most of the population swearing - with all apparent sincerity - that it had never supported them, or their anti-Western policies, at all.
> 
> Perhaps we should think about how to make it so.


----------



## CougarKing

> Chosun link
> 
> *"N.Korea's New Hovercraft Base Near Completion North Korea has nearly completed a hovercraft base in Koampo, Hwanghae Province, only some 50 km from South Korea's northwesternmost islands. The North is expected to put it into full operation next month.  *
> 
> A South Korean government source said Sunday the large base in Koampo is "near completion." "We found out that the North built about 60 hangar-like berths where hovercraft and stealth air-cushion warships can be kept safely," he added.
> 
> *South Korean and U.S. intelligence agencies believe the North will begin deploying the ships at the base next month. The berths are reportedly sturdy reinforced concrete structures that look like fighter plane hangars so they can protect the boats from South Korean and U.S. bombardment.
> 
> The North has about 130 hovercraft, and the new base can accommodate about half. So far the North's main hovercraft base on the west coast is more than 300 km from South Korea's northwesternmost islands. *
> 
> *It would therefore take North Korean commandos four hours to launch an attack on the islands. But once the Koampo base is in operation, it will take a mere 30 to 40 minutes*. That means they could land on the islands before South Korean attack aircraft or helicopters that would be scrambled from their inland bases.
> 
> The North's hovercraft can travel on mudflats along the west coast at a speed of 74-96 km/h, carrying a platoon of 30 to 50 personnel. Sixty of them could therefore carry a force of up to 3,000 commandos for a surprise attack on the islands.
> 
> *In response, the South Korean military plans to deploy several 500MD attack helicopters armed with rockets and machine guns on the islands in the near future, first of all. *  And since the choppers have difficulty maneuvering at night or in bad weather, the Air Force's KA-1 light attack aircraft and the Army's AH-1 Cobra attack helicopters will also be deployed to deter the North Korean hovercraft. The military also plans to buy 36 AH-64 Apache attack helicopters."
> ---------


----------



## a_majoor

Just a reminder while our attention is currently fixated on the Arab "spring", Libya and Afghanistan there are still lots of flashpoints (part 1):

http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/after-61-years-korean-war-offers-modern-lessons/?print=1



> *After 61 Years, Korean War Offers Modern Lessons*
> Posted By Dan Miller On June 25, 2011 @ 5:26 pm In Koreas,Middle East,Uncategorized,US News | 29 Comments
> 
> Sixty-one years ago, on June 25, 1950, North Korea “unexpectedly” invaded South Korea. As we remember our many military personnel who gave their lives during the conflict, we might also think about the reasons it happened and perhaps as well about how to diminish the likelihood of another, in Korea and elsewhere.
> 
> The events leading up to the invasion are now ancient history and so are little considered in evaluating current events. That is unfortunate. Stalin, Mao, and Kim il-Sung are dead but their spirits survive and continue to haunt us; we also have others with whom to contend, principally in the Arab lands.
> 
> China and Russia are quite different now than they were in 1950, although the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) remains an enigma — headed for now by Kim Jong-il with an apparent but not certain successor in his son, Kim Jong-un. The course of the succession may not be smooth and that can lead to mischief. So can the DPRK’s miserable economic [1] situation coupled with her probable nuclear capability and general weirdness.
> 
> Many documents became available during the “global warming” of relations among the United States, the Soviet Union, and China. Many if not most have been translated and studied by scholars. They show that North Korea’s Kim il-Sung had wanted to reunify the Korean Peninsula through force since 1948 but that Stalin had resisted until he became convinced that it would work, very quickly. He then provided substantial military assistance. China’s Mao was not generally consulted during the period leading up to the invasion. He eventually was and agreed to it despite his greater interest in invading Taiwan, which Stalin had pragmatically discouraged. In the end China bore the brunt, not of the initial invasion but when the United States and Republic of Korea (ROK) forces retaliated by pushing into North Korea and soon reaching the Chinese border.
> 
> During the two years leading up to the North Korean invasion, Kim il-Sung spent much time in the Soviet Union attempting to persuade Stalin of the benefits of an invasion. It has been claimed [2] that in 1949 Stalin began to have substantial concerns about an attack on North Korea from the South:
> 
> [W]hile Stalin tried to prevent a war in Korea in 1949, the North Korean leadership increasingly put pressure on the Kremlin, demanding permission to liberate the South. On 7 March 1949, while talking to Stalin in Moscow, Kim il-Sung said: “We believe that the situation makes it necessary and possible to liberate the whole country through military means.” The Soviet leader disagreed, citing the military weakness of the North, the USSR-USA agreement on the 38th parallel and the possibility of American intervention.
> 
> Stalin added that only if the adversary attacked Pyongyang, North Korea could they try military unification by launching a counter attack. Then the Kremlin chief explained, “your move will be understood and supported by everyone.” (emphasis in original)
> 
> Circumstances changed and it was soon agreed that a falsely claimed invasion by the South would serve as a useful pretext for invasion by the North.
> 
> It seems that Stalin considered any improvement in U.S – China relations as very dangerous for Russia [3], potentially ruining his strategic calculations. A takeover of the South by the North would further establish a distance between the East and the West as well as perpetuate China’s dependence on the USSR. It would also be of use to the Soviet Union in the event of World War III. Nevertheless, Stalin remained to be persuaded that the North could win a quick victory and that there would be no U.S. involvement. When Kim il-Sung secretly visited Moscow between March 30 and April 25, he assured Stalin that his attack would succeed in three days: there would be an uprising by some two hundred thousand party members and he was convinced that the United States would not intervene. A speech by Secretary of State Dean Acheson on January 12, 1950, was persuasive evidence. There, Secretary Acheson had omitted South Korea from a list of nations which the United States would defend if attacked. Stalin gave the go-ahead.
> 
> Although Stalin caved in to Kim’s pleas for permission to attack, he insisted on thorough preparation. Contemporaneously, there were exchanges of cables between Moscow and Beijing. They did not mention that Stalin had given his approval to the invasion. Stalin viewed the largely urban Communist situation in the USSR as different from and superior to the more rural Communist situation in China and had no desire for China to butt in:
> 
> Stalin . . . wanted to work out the plans for the Korean war himself without Chinese interference and objections and then present Beijing with a fait accompli when Mao would have no choice but to agree with the invasion and assist it. While in Moscow Mao insisted on the liberation of Taiwan. Stalin was negative to the idea. It would be hard for Stalin to convince Mao in Moscow to help the Koreans before the Chinese had completed the reunification of their own country.
> 
> Although Kim visited Beijing about a month before the June 25 invasion, it was more to inform Mao of what was about to happen than to solicit assistance. Mao had Taiwan to worry about and war in Korea was already inevitable. Mao gave his blessing, for what it might be worth.
> 
> Stalin’s role, unlike Mao’s, [3] was quite significant at first:
> 
> Stalin’s decisive backing for Kim was shown in two ways. First, as soon as Kim returned from Moscow, Soviet weapons “in huge numbers” began arriving at the North Korean port of Chongyin, barely a day’s sailing from Vladivostok. Second, and at about the same time a new team of Soviet military advisors, including at least three major-generals with combat experience, arrived in Pyongyang to oversee the preparations for war. Pyongyang’s military manpower problems had already been solved for, early in 1950, Mao had arranged for the transfer to North Korea of some fifteen thousand ethnic, battle-hardened Koreans who had fought in the Chinese People’s Liberation Army. These troops followed two earlier divisions of Koreans sent from China in 1949.
> 
> ….
> 
> The draft operational plan was written by the Soviet advisors and termed a “counterattack plan” using the tension along the 38th Parallel as a pretext for war. The nomenclature of a counterattack plan, according to one former senior North Korean general, was “a fake, disinformation to cover ourselves.” The Soviet advisors evidently accepted Kim’s belief in a southern uprising, for formal military operations were only expected to last three or four days with the capture of Seoul. Total victory was then expected in less than a month. Kim personally set the timing for the invasion at 0400 hours on Sunday, June 25, 1950 but his Soviet advisors were closely involved in this aspect of the planning as well.
> 
> The decision to attack [4] had been made and it came on June 25. Seoul fell within three days as Kim il-Sung had anticipated; however, the popular uprisings did not occur. President Truman decided almost immediately to intervene, Secretary Acheson’s speech notwithstanding. The United States had little difficulty in persuading the UN Security Council to condemn the invasion and to urge that the U.S. be assisted by at least minimal numbers of international forces, which happened. Russia could easily have vetoed this but did not; it was too busy boycotting the Security Council on account of its refusal to seat mainland China in place of Taiwan (that did not happen until October of 1971). Might this have been a ploy to make sure that China would soon be kept busy with Korea and in line with Stalin’s world game plan? Stalin was a clever rascal; he could have given lessons to Machiavelli:
> 
> Mao, who had been marginalized in the final decision-making, quickly realized the implications of [the unanticipated] American intervention. As early as July 7, two days after the first clash between American and North Korean forces at Osan, Premier Zhou Enlai called a special meeting of the Chinese Central Military Commission to assess Chinese options in the conflict. So began the process through which China, not the Soviet Union, paid the major price for Kim and Stalin’s decision to launch the war.
> 
> On September 15, 1950, General MacArthur mounted his extraordinarily risky but also extraordinarily successful landing at KNPA occupied Inchon [5]. To get to Inchon by sea from the port at Pusan, still under South Korean control and located on the south eastern coast, was a hairy adventure. Invasion by sea was the only possibility because the NKPA controlled most of the country to the north of Pusan. Perhaps the most problematic aspect was navigation of warships through the shallow and in some places narrow Flying Fish Channel, passing islands perhaps occupied by North Korean People’s Army (NKPA) troops. The tides there varied by more than thirty feet and, except at the highest of high tides, passage of an invasion fleet would be impossible. Had the invasion not succeeded in passing through the channel on September 15, the date of the highest tides, it would have had to be delayed for about a month; by then it might well be expected. Surprise played a major part in the success of the September 15th invasion. Seoul was quickly retaken and the U.S. and ROK forces reclaimed all of South Korea with the NKPA forces fleeing back north. All looked rosy. General MacArthur announced that the U.S. forces would be home by Christmas; it did not happen that way.
> 
> President Truman authorized General MacArthur to go north of the 38th Parallel but cautioned alertness for indications of the entry of China or Russia into the war. Korea was seen as part of the fight against world Communism and as possibly the first skirmish in a Third World War. General MacArthur’s troops promptly moved north. The Eighth Army headed up the west coast to the Yalu River while the X Corps made amphibious landings at Wonson and Iwon on the east coast and proceeded to the border with China. The war seemed to be nearly over. It was not.
> 
> There had been signals from China [6] that she would send troops should any forces other than South Korean cross the 38th Parallel. However, China was being isolated politically and a warning she attempted to relay through Indian diplomatic channels was ignored. General MacArthur disregarded the risks and plunged ahead:
> 
> The best time for [Chinese] intervention was past, they said, and even if the Chinese decided to intervene, allied air power and firepower would cripple their ability to move or resupply their forces. The opinion of many military observers, some of whom had helped train the Chinese to fight against the Japanese in World War II, was that the huge infantry forces that could be put in the field would be poorly equipped, poorly led, and abysmally supplied. These “experts” failed to give full due to the revolutionary zeal and military experience of many of the Chinese soldiers that had been redeployed to the Korean border area. Many of the soldiers were confident veterans of the successful civil war against the Nationalist Chinese forces. Although these forces were indeed poorly supplied, they were highly motivated, battle hardened, and led by officers who were veterans, in some cases, of twenty years of nearly constant war.


----------



## a_majoor

Part 2

http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/after-61-years-korean-war-offers-modern-lessons/?print=1



> General MacArthur was indisputably a military genius, as most recently demonstrated by his very chancy but highly successful Inchon invasion which had generally been opposed by the military establishment in Washington. However, he had an unfortunate tendency to rely heavily on staff officers (the “Bataan Gang,” members of which had been with him in World War II’s Pacific theater) who told him what he wanted to hear and reinforced his sometimes faulty views. General Charles Andrew Willoughby, General MacArthur’s G2 (chief of intelligence), was among them. He tended to tell General MacArthur things and, when General MacArthur accepted them, to provide no contradictory information. While often comforting, “yes men” are less valuable than officers who provide fresh information inconsistent with what they had previously provided. The same is true with presidents. There was apparently also a focus on expecting the USSR, China, and North Korea to behave “rationally” and a tendency to neglect aspects of their ideology and culture. What seems reasonable to the leader of a free people is often very different from what seems reasonable to a dictator far more interested in preserving and enhancing his own position. These factors must be kept constantly in mind in an incipient Korean — or any other — conflict, including in the Arab lands. Neither the United States nor the USSR, China nor North Korea had crystal balls and all had ideologies to consider. The fog of war limited the vision of all, something quite common. The problems went beyond that.
> 
> The massive Chinese intervention [6] came very soon after the Inchon invasion, on November 1, 1950, and things did not go well; for a while, the U.S. and ROK forces were routed:
> 
> [T]hey came out of the hills near Unsan, North Korea, blowing bugles in the dying light of day on 1 November 1950, throwing grenades and firing their “burp” guns at the surprised American soldiers of the 8th Cavalry Regiment, 1st Cavalry Division. Those who survived the initial assaults reported how shaken the spectacle of massed Chinese infantry had left them. Thousands of Chinese had attacked from the north, northwest, and west against scattered U.S. and South Korean (Republic of Korea or ROK) units moving deep into North Korea. The Chinese seemed to come out of nowhere as they swarmed around the flanks and over the defensive positions of the surprised United Nations (UN) troops. Within hours the ROK 15th Regiment on the 8th Cavalry’s right flank collapsed, while the 1st and 2d Battalions of the 8th Cavalry fell back in disarray into the city of Unsan. By morning, with their positions being overrun and their guns falling silent, the men of the 8th Cavalry tried to withdraw, but a Chinese roadblock to their rear forced them to abandon their artillery, and the men took to the hills in small groups. Only a few scattered survivors made it back to tell their story. The remaining battalion of the 8th Cavalry, the 3d, was hit early in the morning of 2 November with the same “human wave” assaults of bugle-blowing Chinese. In the confusion, one company-size Chinese element was mistaken for South Koreans and allowed to pass a critical bridge near the battalion command post (CP). Once over the bridge, the enemy commander blew his bugle, and the Chinese, throwing satchel charges and grenades, overran the CP.
> 
> It became a bitter and bloody retreat through and between snow covered mountains in sub-freezing temperatures for which many troops had not been provided adequate cold weather gear. In April of 1951, General Ridgway replaced General MacArthur, who had different views on how to conduct military operations than did many in the Pentagon and, of greater importance, than did President Truman. At times, General MacArthur appeared to be confused over who was the commander in chief. Changes in command during time of war can be dangerous. They had already become so five months before, with the massive Chinese intervention.
> 
> In August of 1951 [7], a year and two months after the invasion and about one year after the Chinese push into North Korea from the Yalu had begun,
> 
> General Ridgway’s headquarters in Tokyo put out a statement designed to show a cleavage between Moscow and Peking. Russia, said the statement, had inveigled the Chinese into the Korean war in order “to slash the strength of China … because a strong China on Russia’s southern frontier is the Kremlin’s nightmare. … China fought and bled while Russia looked on. To Mao Tse-tung this could hardly look like bosom comradeship. … It may mean China eventually goes the way of Yugoslavia. … The Reds have been so busy looking for cracks in the structure of the democracies they have not noticed the perch they are sitting on is swaying and slowly crumbling. … They cannot survive.”
> 
> General Ridgway had replaced General MacArthur only a few months previously and this may have been little more than wishful thinking.
> 
> The retreat from the Yalu was difficult and bloody, with much loss of life. The conflict ended in a truce, still in existence although of dubious meaning, with the border between the ROK and North Korea drawn pretty much along the thirty-eighth parallel with some islands to the north of it desired by the DPRK.
> 
> North Korea is not our friend, and neither are China and Russia [8]. They tend to look out exclusively for their own peculiar interests as they perceive them [9] and will do whatever it takes to advance them. If the Obama administration fails to recognize these things, and to act on the basis of them, we, South Korea, and many others as well are in for very substantial problems. Indeed, they are upon us with the recent provocative attacks [10] by North Korea on the South.
> 
> In many respects, things are even more complicated and less fully understood now than during the lead up to the 1950 Korean Conflict. Then, we had few insights into what might be happening in the “Hermit Kingdom” of North Korea; that remains the case. Then, many seemed to recognize clearly that North Korea, China, and Russia were our enemies; fewer now seem to have that clear a perception as to Russia and China. Additionally, China has developed quite dramatically as a world economic power, transcending Russia; she is a, if not the, principal banker to the United States. She also supplies much of the “cheap stuff” desired by American consumers and many others. In consequence, the United States has become far more subservient to her than ever before.
> 
> As other things have changed, North Korea has become an increasing threat internationally with her trade in offensive military material with Iran and others. There are also problems, current and incipient, in much of the Arab world and we seem to have few insights into how to deal with them to our best advantage. We are at sea in Libya and Egypt can become a major problem with the ascendency of the Muslim Brotherhood. We now have a new secretary of defense and our president, principally for political purposes, is reducing our presence in Afghanistan.
> 
> As to Korea, much unfortunately depends on China and on our increasing subservience to her. If North Korea initiates a real war — perhaps by directing missile attacks against Seoul and her millions of residents — the likely response of China is unknown and perhaps even unpredictable, beyond that she will do whatever she sees as in her own best interests, defined as the interests of her rulers. Her response cannot be assumed to be what we would consider rational because China’s response will be a function of (a) how she perceives the precipitating events and of even greater importance (b) what the Chinese leaders consider their own best interests. I have very attenuated confidence that the folks at the State Department and elsewhere who are supposed to be watching the situation have many useful clues as to that sort of thing.
> 
> Article printed from Pajamas Media: http://pajamasmedia.com
> 
> URL to article: http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/after-61-years-korean-war-offers-modern-lessons/
> 
> URLs in this post:
> 
> [1] miserable economic: http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/happy-birthday-dear-leader-kim-jong-il/?singlepage=true
> [2] claimed: http://www.alternativeinsight.com/Korean_War.html
> [3] very dangerous for Russia: http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m2751/is_n42/ai_17839923/pg_2/?tag=content;col1
> [4] decision to attack: http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m2751/is_n42/ai_17839923/
> [5] Inchon: http://www.history.navy.mil/photos/events/kowar/50-unof/inchon.htm
> [6] signals from China: http://www.history.army.mil/brochures/kw-chinter/chinter.htm
> [7] August of 1951: http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,889173-1,00.html
> [8] Russia: http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/11/28/wikileaked_cable_from_bob_gates_russian_democracy_has_disappeared
> [9] they perceive them: http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/what-does-koreas-chaos-portend-for-the-united-states/?singlepage=true
> [10] recent provocative attacks: http://opinion-forum.com/index/2010/12/the-past-is-prologue/opinion-forum.com/index/2010/11/the-korean-situation-is-highly-complex-and-difficult/


----------



## 57Chevy

Shared with provisions of The Copyright Act

The Independent/ 29 Jun/ AP
North Korea threatens 'sacred war' against South
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/north-korea-threatens-sacred-war-against-south-2304197.html

North Korea threatened today to launch a "sacred war" against South Korea even as a delegation from Seoul travelled across the countries' heavily fortified border for a meeting on a stalled joint tourism project.

A North Korean government spokesman accused front-line South Korean army units of setting up "virulent" signs that slander North Korea and of inciting "extreme hostility" toward Pyongyang.

"This is little short of a clear declaration of war," the unidentified spokesman said in comments carried by the North's official Korean Central News Agency.

"We will react to the enemy's provocation with a stern punishment and counter its war with a merciless retaliatory sacred war."

The threat came one day after South Korea's Hankyoreh newspaper reported that some South Korean army units near the border had set up anti-North Korea slogans in the wake of two deadly attacks blamed on North Korea last year.

The newspaper carried a photo showing a banner reading "Let's ram guns and swords into the chests of North Korean puppet soldiers!" hanging over the entrance of one army unit in Cheolwon, a town near the central portion of the demilitarised zone separating North and South Korea.

The newspaper said the unit also wrote on its walls such signs as Let's hack the three Kims into pieces, a reference to late North Korea founder Kim Il Sung, his son and current leader Kim Jong Il, and grandson and heir-apparent Kim Jong Un.

South Korea's Defence Ministry confirmed the substance of the report, saying some army units have taken such measures to bolster their soldiers' mental toughness against North Korea.

The two Koreas are technically still at war because their 1950s conflict ended with a cease-fire, not a peace treaty.

North Korea's threat to attack South Korea is only the latest in a series of warnings and hostile statements from Pyongyang aimed at the conservative government of South Korean President Lee Myung-bak.

It comes as the two Koreas were to meet to discuss North Korea's seizure of South Korean assets at the North's scenic Diamond Mountain.

Joint tours to the mountain were suspended in 2008 following the shooting death of a South Korean tourist. North Korea later confiscated or shut down South Korean-owned buildings and other facilities there.

A group of South Korean officials and business leaders crossed the border and headed to the mountain for talks hours after the North's threat, according to Seoul's Unification Ministry.

Animosities between the Koreas have deepened since North Korea allegedly torpedoed a South Korean warship in March last year. The North also shelled a South Korean border island in November. A total of 50 South Koreans were killed.


----------



## The Bread Guy

57Chevy said:
			
		

> Shared with provisions of The Copyright Act
> 
> The Independent/ 29 Jun/ AP
> North Korea threatens 'sacred war' against South
> http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/north-korea-threatens-sacred-war-against-south-2304197.html
> 
> North Korea threatened today to launch a "sacred war" against South Korea even as a delegation from Seoul travelled across the countries' heavily fortified border for a meeting on a stalled joint tourism project.
> 
> A North Korean government spokesman accused front-line South Korean army units of setting up "virulent" signs that slander North Korea and of inciting "extreme hostility" toward Pyongyang.
> 
> "This is little short of a clear declaration of war," the unidentified spokesman said in comments carried by the North's official Korean Central News Agency ...."


Full statement via Korean Central News Agency of DPRK here - full screen capture also attached if link doesn't work.


----------



## Sythen

http://www.sunnewsnetwork.ca/sunnews/world/archives/2011/06/20110630-115855.html

OTTAWA -- Canada has called on North Korea to step aside after it gained the chairmanship of the UN Conference on Disarmament based in Geneva.

"North Korea is simply not a credible chair of a disarmament body," Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird said in a statement Thursday. "We call on North Korea to pass the chair on to a credible country that will advance the disarmament agenda within the UN."

Baird also confirmed Canada will review its participation in the conference.

North Korea is known as an international threat for its drive to develop nuclear weapons and its hostility to both South Korea and western democracies.



Everytime I read about UN appointments, I need to shake my head..


----------



## OldSolduer

I guess Kim Jong Il will be a "ronry" guy.


----------



## CougarKing

???



> By Agence France-Presse, Updated: 9/2/2011
> *North Korea seeks adventurous tourists for cruise
> 
> It has karaoke and fresh coffee, but the bathrooms on the lower decks are out of water and some guests sleep on the floor. Welcome aboard North Korea's first cruise ship.*
> 
> North Korea seeks adventurous tourists for cruise
> *Keen to boost tourism and earn much-needed cash, authorities in the impoverished nation have decided to launch a cruise tour from the rundown northeastern port city of Rajin to the scenic resort of Mount Kumgang.
> 
> In a highly unusual move, the reclusive regime invited more than 120 journalists and Chinese tour operators on board the newly-renovated, 39-year-old Man Gyong Bong ship for a trial run of the 21-hour journey.*
> The vessel left one of Rajin's ageing piers on Tuesday to the sound of rousing music, as hundreds of students and workers holding colourful flowers stood in line and clapped in unison.
> 
> "The boat was only renovated one week ago," said Hwang Chol Nam, vice mayor of the *Rason special economic zone*, as he sat on the top deck at a table filled with bottles of North Korean beer, a large plate of fruit, and egg and seafood dishes.
> 
> "But it has already made the trip to Mount Kumgang and back. I told people to test the ship to make sure it was safe," said the 48-year-old, dressed in a crisp suit adorned with a red pin sporting late leader Kim Il-Sung's portrait.
> 
> *The project is the brainchild of North Korea's Taepung International Investment Group and the government of Rason, a triangular coastal area in the northeast that encompasses Rajin and Sonbong cities, and borders China and Russia.
> 
> Set up as a special economic zone in 1991 to attract investment to North Korea, it never took off due to poor infrastructure, chronic power shortages and a lack of confidence in the reclusive regime*.
> 
> Now though, authorities are trying to revive the area as the North's economy falters under the weight of international sanctions imposed over the regime's pursuit of ballistic missiles and atomic weapons.
> 
> The country is desperately poor after decades of isolation and bungled economic policies, and is grappling with persistent food shortages.
> 
> In Rason, Hwang said authorities had decided to focus on three areas of growth -- cargo trade, seafood processing and tourism.
> 
> North Korea has only been open to Western tourists since 1987 and remains tightly controlled, but more destinations are gradually opening up to tour groups keen to see the country for themselves.
> 
> Mount Kumgang, though, is at the heart of a political dispute between North and South Korea after a tourist from the South was shot dead by a North Korean soldier in 2008.
> 
> And Rason, where the cruise begins, is a poor area. The tours are tightly monitored, and the only brief contact with locals is with guides, tourist shop owners and hotel employees.
> 
> Visitors can expect only brief glimpses of everyday life through the windows of tour buses, as locals -- many dressed in monochrome clothing -- cycle past or drive the occasional car in otherwise quiet streets.
> 
> Small apartment blocks, many of them run down, are interspersed with monuments to the glory of the country's leaders.
> 
> A portrait of current leader Kim Jong-Il and his late father Kim Il-Sung greets visitors as they walk through the vast lobby of the large, white hotel in Rajin.
> 
> "The book is a silent teacher and a companion to life," reads a quotation from the late Kim, hung over glass cases full of books about North Korea, with titles like "The Great Man Kim Jong-Il" and "Korea -- a trailblazer."
> 
> The rooms are spartan but clean. But there is no Internet connection anywhere in the area, and the phone lines are unreliable and expensive. Foreign mobile phones are confiscated by tour guides as travellers enter the country.
> 
> Hwang said the government in Rason was trying to address communication problems and had signed a 26-year exclusive agreement with a Thai firm to set up Internet in the area, which he hoped would be running in September.
> 
> He acknowledged, however, that non-business related websites would likely be blocked, with the media tightly controlled in North Korea.
> 
> Many of Rason's tourists come from neighbouring China. The area sees an average of 150 travellers from China every day during the summer peak season.
> 
> One Chinese national from the southeastern province of Fujian who gave only his surname, Li, said he had come to North Korea after a business meeting on the Chinese side of the border.
> 
> "We've come here mainly to see what changes there have been compared to our country... I like to go to places I've never been to before," he said, standing in front of a huge portrait of Kim Il-Sung.
> 
> Simon Cockerell, managing director of Koryo Group, a Beijing-based firm that specialises in tours to North Korea, conceded that Rason may not be everyone's idea of a holiday, but said its attraction lay in the unknown.
> 
> "A lot of people like going to obscure places. And this is the most obscure part of a very obscure country in tourism terms -- the least visited part of the least visited country," he said.
> 
> Back on the boat, Chinese tour operators sang karaoke in a dining hall decked out with North Korean flags as a waitress made fresh coffee, while guests drank beer and ate dried fish at plastic tables up on deck.
> 
> Inside, some cabins were decked out with bunk beds, while others just had mattresses laid out on the floor. The better rooms had tables, chairs and private washrooms.
> 
> Water in bathrooms on the vessel -- used as a ferry between North Korea and Japan until 1992 when it started shipping cargo -- was unreliable and when available, was brown.
> 
> But Park Chol Su, vice president of Taepung, said he had big plans for the tour if it attracted enough visitors.
> 
> He wants to invite more than 100 tourist agencies from Europe in October to sample the same trip, in a bid to attract travellers from further afield.
> 
> Authorities have promised no visas will be needed to go on the cruise and, if all goes to plan, the ship will be upgraded to a more comfortable one.
> 
> "Next year, we aim to get a bigger, nicer boat that can accommodate 1,000 people. We'd rent that from another country in Southeast Asia," he said.


----------



## a_majoor

A Russian view of the situation:

http://pjmedia.com/blog/will-north-korea-collapse/?print=1



> *Will North Korea Collapse?*
> 
> Posted By Dan Miller On November 16, 2011 @ 12:45 am In Asia,China,Food and Drink,Koreas | No Comments
> [1]
> 
> Kim enjoys the good life. Will his son?
> 
> South Korean newspapers Korea Times [2], Chosun Ilbo [3], Dong A-Ilbo [4] and Arirang News [5] reported late last week that the Russian Institute of World Economy and International Relations [6] opined in September that the Kim regime in North Korea will collapse and that “the North will no longer exist in its current form.” The peninsula will then come under the control of the South, a result the Institute considers good for Russia. A different view is presented here [7].
> 
> The Institute appears to include many of the Russian elite [6] and is run by the Russian government [3]. According to a South Korean Foreign Ministry official [2], the report is “an official declaration by the Russian government of welcoming unification on the Korean Peninsula led by the South”
> 
> The report apparently is not yet available at the Institute’s website [6], last updated on November 7.  According to the Arirang News article, the report says that
> 
> the two Koreas’ reunification will be accelerated by a power vacuum that will be created during the power transfer from current North Korean leader Kim Jong-il to his son Jong-un in the near future.
> 
> . . .  the power vacuum, which is expected to happen in [within?] ten years from now, would lead to power struggle between the North’s elite bureaucrats and military personnel. While the two groups battle for the state’s new leadership and identity, the report predicts that an interim North Korean government supported by the international community will be set up in [within?] two decades. (Emphasis added)
> 
> As noted at page 4 below, there are signs that such a power struggle is already starting.
> 
> The Arirang New article continues,
> 
> The report adds that the reunification of the two Koreas would serve Russia’s national interests, saying that the stabilization of the Korean peninsula would benefit both the Russian economy and Russia’s diplomatic relations.
> 
> According to the Dong Ah-Ilbo article, the Institute
> 
> also said in its recent report . . . “A provisional government capable of disarmament and modernization of the Stalinist country will likely be set up in the North in the 2030s to make full preparation for complete control by South Korea.” The report effectively forecast that the South will achieve reunification by absorbing the North in 10 years. (Emphasis added)
> 
> Dong Al-Ilbo comments,
> 
> Russia has shunned using the term “collapse” for the North, so it is unusual for the think tank, which helps devise Moscow’s foreign policy, to consider the collapse of the North as a fait accompli. This signals that either the North is showing abnormal signs that cannot be taken lightly or Russia is making a major change in its assessment of the North’s status. Moscow has apparently judged that the North is on a downward path toward collapse and that the path is rapidly narrowing.
> 
> China and Russia have different interests.
> 
> Relations between Russia and China — apparently amiable now [8] — could come under strain due to the Korean situation. China would not likely view a “positive impact on Russia’s standing [5]in the Asia-Pacific region” as in her best interests. Although China has occasionally seemed frustrated with North Korea, they retain a symbiotic relationship. [9] China’s acceptance of reunification, as summarized by President Hu [10], envisions neither collapse of the North nor reunification under Seoul.
> 
> Chinese President Hu Jintao has said that “independent and peaceful reunification” of the two Koreas is “in the fundamental interest” of both sides.
> 
> Asked whether China believes “that reunification of the Korean peninsula will bring more stability than maintaining the status quo?” Hu said, “As a close neighbor and friend of [both Koreas], China hopes that the North and the South will improve relations and achieve reconciliation and cooperation through dialogue and consultation and eventually realize independent and peaceful reunification, and we support their efforts in this regard. This is in the fundamental interests of both the North and the South and conducive to peace and stability on the peninsula.”
> 
> The Chinese leadership has expressed support for reunification independent of the military and political influence of the U.S. and led by the two Koreas themselves several times. But it has been widely believed to prefer the status quo for strategic reasons. (Emphasis added)
> 
> With unification on the terms desired by China, it could have more influence over the entire peninsula, including the South, than now.
> YouTube Preview Image [11]
> 
> Reunification and the South
> 
> Reunification is decreasingly popular [12] with young South Koreans.
> 
> The change is clear both from anecdotal evidence and public opinion polls. In a recent survey conducted by the Peace Research Institute, respondents were asked whether they see North Korea as the same state and North Koreans as their ethnic brethren.
> 
> In regard to the first question, 44.1% chose the following response: “In the past North Korea was the same state, but now I am beginning to feel it as a different state.” In regard to ethnic solidarity, a majority (52.9%) said that they still perceive North Koreans as their ethnic brethren, but the second most popular (30.2%) response was: “In the past they were our ethnic brethren, but now I am beginning to feel that they are foreigners.” And an additional 9% said: “North Koreans are as foreign as Chinese.”
> 
> Just 15 or 20 years ago, such replies would have been virtually unthinkable. Every good, patriotic Korean, regardless of his/her views on other subjects, was supposed to be an ardent believer in the glory of unification.
> 
> Absorbing the North could cost about $3 trillion [13] and be far more difficult than was the reunification of Germany.  Meanwhile, North Korean defectors continue to dribble into South Korea, twenty-one on October 30 [14]. Although the trip by sea is very dangerous [15], a total of 21,294 defectors are reported to have arrived by various means as of April of this year. They provide much of the South’s information about the North.
> 
> Under the Institute’s thesis, the collapse has begun.
> 
> Linking the collapse to the beginnings of the transfer of power from Kim Jong-il to his son, Kim Jong-un, indicates that the collapse has started. A link between the transfer of power and a collapse of the Kim regime has often been suggested [16]. Last August, for example,
> 
> The head of a leading news service covering North Korea [17] [predicted] . . . that the ruling communist regime is headed for the dustbin of history — and soon.
> 
> “North Korea [17] will collapse, of course, but the question is how long it might take,” Park In-ho, president of the Seoul-based Daily NK [18], told the Washington Times. “Within five years, 70 percent chance. But within 10 years? 100 percent.”
> 
> His confidence stems from the North Korean regime’s plunging popular support, its lack of funds and its loss of diplomatic support — including from former sponsor China [19], he said.
> 
> The actual power transfer could come soon. There have been signs beyond Kim Jong-il’s ill health that symbols of power are flowing to his son. Some appear to be significant even to westerners. For example [20], it was noted last September that
> 
> Kim Jong-un, thought to be in his late 20s, emerged from obscurity [21] a year ago this past week as a four-star general [22] and vice chairman of the Central Military Commission of the Workers’ Party. . . .
> 
> He has also been seen on state-run television with
> 
> “octogenarian party secretaries bowing to a man their grandchildren’s age before accepting the smiling man’s handshake or kowtowing to his instructions.”
> 
> A year after Kim Jong-un [23] made his public debut [24] as North Korea’s leader-in-waiting, scenes like that — the old party elite groveling — have become a staple of North Korea’s propagandist media, a crucial tool for the country’s leader, Kim Jong-il [25], to elevate his son as his successor.
> 
> Other important signs could appear meaningless in a different context than North Korea. For example, Kim Jong-il and his son began wearing the same Russian style hats [26] in January. This is seen as suggesting that “North Korean leader Kim Jong-il’s son and heir Jong-un is already being treated with the same level of protocol as his father.”
> 
> [27]
> 
> Mad hatter and son
> 
> A senior South Korean government official [recently] said Kim Jong-un seems to have moved up to the same rank as his father. “The most conspicuous sign is that Kim Jong-un has started wearing a top-quality furry hat that only Kim Jong-il has been wearing so far,” the official added.
> 
> A former senior North Korean official identified as Choi, who has defected to South Korea, said, “The hat was customized by a foreign master craftsman using top-quality otter fur. It’s an unwritten rule that nobody else can wear such a hat, so if Kim Jong-un is also wearing one, it means he has now reached almost the same status as his father.”
> 
> 
> 
> North Korean Military Intelligence vs. the National Secret Police
> 
> It was reported here [28] on November 5 that
> 
> Senior officials of the secret police (NSA, National Security Agency) have been arrested for taking bribes to enable people to escape to China. This is unprecedented, as the NSA is considered the ultimate guardian of the North Korean government. But for the last few years, a growing number of rumors described many NSA officials as “approachable” (could be bribed.) Four months ago, North Korea sent agents from two competing agencies (military intelligence and the NSA) to help fight corruption along the border. The agents were ordered to watch their rivals for signs of someone being bribed.
> 
> The NSA arrests are part of a crackdown on the areas of greatest corruption. One of these is North Pyongan Province (in the northwest, along the Chinese border). In this area, officials are publicly confirming rumors of executions, usually by firing squad, of corrupt officials and managers of commercial enterprises. To speed things along, local government and police officials were kept out of the investigation and prosecutions. Police and prosecutors were brought in from other provinces. Like many other parts of North Korea, once the local officials became corrupt, they all cooperated to protect each other from being prosecuted and punished. While the punishment of the corrupt officials is popular with most residents, the process wrecked the administration of the province and the newly appointed officials are expected to start stealing as soon as they have a chance. (Emphasis added)
> 
> Corruption in North Korea is endemic and is not new; it is necessary to survival. Executions have been reported frequently in the past and family members of those executed can wind up in prison camps [29] with about 200,000 other political prisoners:
> YouTube Preview Image [30]
> Pitting North Korean military intelligence against the secret police adds a new twist; it may suggest an incipient acceleration of the break between the North’s “elite bureaucrats and military personnel” referred to in the Russian Institute report.
> 
> North Korea is a black hole
> 
> Little light emerges and what does is refracted often beyond the comprehension of westerners. That Papa Kim is portrayed even in North Korean propaganda as what we would consider a queer duck further complicates our comprehension of the people’s understandings and loyalty to him. Do most believe the nonsense or privately snicker at it?
> YouTube Preview Image [31]
> Predictions about what will happen next week are difficult. Projections running out twenty years or longer are more difficult and less likely to be right. That’s why contingency plans must be updated, continuously, based on available facts and cautious speculations beyond those rooted in western culture.
> 
> The United States may or may not have human intelligence personnel on the ground in North Korea. That would be difficult for the United States; most any Asian can easily distinguish Koreans from Japanese, Chinese, etc. Koreans can easily detect non-Koreans, even those who speak Korean fluently. Although it appears that the internet [32] is becoming increasingly available to the elite in North Korea, reliable sources of human intelligence remain necessary and so do analysts long immersed in the Korean culture. South Korea very likely has such sources in the North and her intelligence analysts are best able to understand what is discovered.
> 
> Our strategic interests are for the most part aligned with South Korea’s. Like it or not, we need to give substantial credence to the perceptions of South Korean intelligence personnel of what’s happening in the North, while pursuing our own best interests and preparing for what may happen [33].  Kim Jong-il may chose to go out with a bang or a whimper; we do not know which. Subtle signs will be there.  While preoccupied with looking through dark and cloudy glasses at our economy, the Middle East, and other troublesome sights, we must detect and understand the signs from Korea, lest we find ourselves over our heads in kimchi.
> 
> Article printed from PJ Media: http://pjmedia.com
> 
> URL to article: http://pjmedia.com/blog/will-north-korea-collapse/
> 
> URLs in this post:
> 
> [1] Image: http://pjmedia.com/files/2011/11/Kim-Jong-il.jpg
> 
> [2] Korea Times: http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2011/11/113_98047.html
> 
> [3] Chosun Ilbo: http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2011/11/07/2011110701214.html
> 
> [4] Dong A-Ilbo: http://english.donga.com/srv/service.php3?biid=2011110539518
> 
> [5] Arirang News: http://www.arirang.co.kr/News/News_View.asp?nseq=122254&code=Ne8&category=1
> 
> [6] Institute of World Economy and International Relations: http://www.imemo.ru/en/history/
> 
> [7] here: http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Korea/MK09Dg01.html
> 
> [8] apparently amiable now: http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/indepth/2011-10/11/c_131184142.htm
> 
> [9] symbiotic relationship.: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/northkorea/2011/11/06/39/0401000000AEN20111106000300315F.HTML
> 
> [10] as summarized by President Hu: http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2011/01/18/2011011800891.html
> 
> [11] Image: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rv1R_vGdsLI
> 
> [12] decreasingly popular: http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Korea/MI09Dg02.html
> 
> [13] about $3 trillion: http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2010/09/113_73029.html
> 
> [14] twenty-one on October 30: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/06/world/asia/boat-with-21-north-koreans-found-off-south-korea-coast.html?_r=1
> 
> [15] very dangerous: http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2011/11/07/2011110700988.html
> 
> [16] suggested: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/aug/1/korean-journalist-predicts-collapse-of-north/
> 
> [17] North Korea: http://www.washingtontimes.com/topics/north-korea/
> 
> [18] Daily NK: http://www.washingtontimes.com/topics/daily-nk/
> 
> [19] China: http://www.washingtontimes.com/topics/china/
> 
> [20] For example: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/01/world/asia/a-year-on-north-koreas-dear-young-general-has-made-his-mark.html?n=Top/Reference/Times%20Topics/People/K/Kim%20Jong-un?ref=kimjongun
> 
> [21] emerged from obscurity: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/29/world/asia/29korea.html
> 
> [22] a four-star general: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/28/world/asia/28korea.html
> 
> [23] Kim Jong-un: http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/k/kim_jongun/index.html?inline=nyt-per
> 
> [24] made his public debut: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/01/world/asia/01korea.html
> 
> [25] Kim Jong-il: http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/k/_kim_jong_il/index.html?inline=nyt-per
> 
> [26] the same Russian style hats: http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2011/01/31/2011013100463.html
> 
> [27] Image: http://pjmedia.com/files/2011/11/Kim-and-Him-hats.jpg
> 
> [28] here: http://www.strategypage.com/qnd/korea/articles/20111105.aspx
> 
> [29] can wind up in prison camps: http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2011/01/24/2011012401103.html
> 
> [30] Image: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1y0yhV6IT7o
> 
> [31] Image: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bx4iC5Gtzk8
> 
> [32] the internet: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_u_KFGnJsHU&feature=player_embedded
> 
> [33] preparing for what may happen: http://pjmedia.com/blog/is-another-conflict-coming-to-korea/?singlepage=true



The Russian's rosy scenario is unlikey; China is not going to allow chaos on her border and will not be inclined to accept an independent or Western oriented "Greater Korea" either. The best general press outline of what might happen is Rober Kaplan's article in the Atlantic: http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2006/10/when-north-korea-falls/5228/


----------



## Edward Campbell

I think the Chinese want the Russian outcome.

China doesn't give a tinker's dam for _communism_, especially not of the DPRK sort. The (relative) "chaos" on China's border is caused by the DPRK and a unified, under Seoul, Korea will cause fewer, not more, problems.

There is no doubt that Seoul has some worries about the cost of unification - witness what happened in Germany, but those concerns may be alleviated by better relations with China.

There is one HUGE impediment to Korean unification: *the USA*. So long as the USA wants to maintain military forces in Korea the Chinese will not allow reunification. When (not if) the Americans leave Korea gets reunified, the nuclear threat goes away, etc, etc, etc.


----------



## GAP

CNN is reporting kim Jung Il has died on the 17 Dec.


----------



## tomahawk6

Will the Party/Army support Kim Jong Un or will there be rebellion ?


----------



## Nfld Sapper

North Korean leader Kim Jong Il, 69, has died

SEOUL, South Korea (AP) -- Kim Jong Il, North Korea's mercurial and enigmatic leader, has died. He was 69.

Kim's death was announced Monday by state television from the North Korean capital, Pyongyang.

Kim is believed to have suffered a stroke in 2008 but appeared relatively vigorous in photos and video from recent trips to China and Russia and in numerous trips around the country carefully documented by state media.

The leader, reputed to have had a taste for cigars, cognac and gourmet cuisine, was believed to have had diabetes and heart disease.

The news came as North Korea prepared for a hereditary succession. Kim Jong Il inherited power after his father, revered North Korean founder Kim Il Sung, died in 1994.

In September 2010, Kim Jong Il unveiled his third son, the twenty-something Kim Jong Un, as his successor, putting him in high-ranking posts.

© 2011 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed. Learn more about our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use.


----------



## GAP

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> Will the Party/Army support Kim Jong Un or will there be rebellion ?



Is the army likely to support reunification with the south? A whole lot of things come into play now.....


----------



## tomahawk6

Dear Leader died of "fatigue" while on a train trip.Natural causes or was he killed ? In any event the North needs to end the starvation of the populace which will ease the problems along the Chinese border.


----------



## Edward Campbell

Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the _Korean Central News Agency_, is the official "cause of death" report:

http://www.kcna.kp/goHome.do?lang=eng


> Medical Analysis of Kim Jong Il′s Demise
> 
> Pyongyang, December 19
> 
> (KCNA)
> --
> 
> Leader Kim Jong Il had received medical treatment for his cardiac and cerebrovascular diseases for a long period.
> 
> He suffered an advanced acute myocardial infarction, complicated with a serious heart shock, on train on December 17, Juche 100 (2011) for a great mental and physical strain caused by his uninterrupted field guidance tour for the building of a thriving nation.
> 
> Every possible first-aid measure was taken immediately but he passed away at 08:30 on December 17.
> 
> An autopsy on December 18 fully confirmed the diagnosis of his diseases.
> 
> -0-


----------



## a_majoor

Still the most comprehensive analysis that I have ever seen on the collapse of the North Korean regime:

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2006/10/when-north-korea-falls/5228/

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2009/05/north-korea-the-next-iraq/7542/


----------



## The Bread Guy

> *North Korea conducted at least one short-range missile test Monday, the same day it announced the death of leader Kim Jong Il, South Korea's Yonhap news agency reported.*
> 
> Two South Korean military officials said they couldn't immediately confirm the report, saying to do so would breach a policy of not commenting on intelligence matters.
> 
> Both said any firing would be part of a routine drill and have little relation to Kim Jong Il's death. They both spoke on condition of anonymity, citing policy.
> 
> Yonhap cited unidentified government and military officials as saying the test occurred off the east coast.
> 
> North Korea is urging its people to rally behind Kim Jong Il's young son and heir-apparent Kim Jong Un, as the world watches warily for signs of instability in a nation pursuing nuclear weapons.
> 
> *South Korea has put its military on high alert against the North's 1.2 million-strong armed forces. President Barack Obama agreed by phone with South Korean President Lee Myung-bak to closely monitor developments.*
> 
> North Korea is preparing for next year's 100th anniversary of the birth of its founder Kim Il Sung – Kim Jong Il's father. The preparations include massive construction projects throughout the capital as part of Kim Jong Il's unfulfilled promise to bring prosperity to his people.


Huffington Post, 19 Dec 11


----------



## The Bread Guy

From Canada's PM:


> “Kim Jong-il will be remembered as the leader of a totalitarian regime who violated the basic rights of the North Korean people for nearly two decades.
> 
> “We hope his passing brings positive change allowing the people of North Korea to emerge from six decades of isolation, oppression and misery. The regime's reckless decisions have resulted in North Korea being an impoverished nation and a country isolated from the international community because of its dangerous nuclear proliferation and ballistic missile programs.
> 
> “At this critical juncture, we urge North Korea to close this sad chapter in its history and to work once more towards promoting both the well-being of its people and stability on the Korean peninsula."


PM Harper statement, 19 Dec 11


----------



## jollyjacktar

All I can think of is Team America.  "You know how fucking busy I am?"


----------



## The Bread Guy

jollyjacktar said:
			
		

> All I can think of is Team America.  "You know how ******* busy I am?"


On the plus side, he's no longer "sooooooo roon-reee".


----------



## OldSolduer

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> On the plus side, he's no longer "sooooooo roon-reee".



I was thinking of that this morning when I read the news the little so and so had died.

I wanted to toast his passing, but didn't want to waste anything on this individual.


----------



## jollyjacktar

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> On the plus side, he's no longer "sooooooo roon-reee".



Nor is he feeling quite so "il" anymore either.  It did strike me that I am not accustomed to seeing despots dying of "natural" causes as of late either.


----------



## The Bread Guy

jollyjacktar said:
			
		

> Nor is he feeling quite so "il" anymore either.  It did strike me that I am not accustomed to seeing despots dying of "natural" causes as of late either.


Well, we know the N.Korean Info-Machine _said_ he died of natural causes....  :Tin-Foil-Hat:


----------



## OldSolduer

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Well, we know the N.Korean Info-Machine _said_ he died of natural causes....  :Tin-Foil-Hat:



you mean he may not have passed on his own but had some help?  ;D


It would serve him right.


----------



## GAP

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Well, we know the N.Korean Info-Machine _said_ he died of natural causes....  :Tin-Foil-Hat:



Hey! Hey! Lead is a naturally occurring product........just so you know.......


----------



## OldSolduer

GAP said:
			
		

> Hey! Hey! Lead is a naturally occurring product........just so you know.......


As a boss of mine once said:

"a vigourous course of lead based mineral therapy pyrotechnically injected"  >


----------



## Haletown

jollyjacktar said:
			
		

> All I can think of is Team America.  "You know how ******* busy I am?"



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jdug6yHJB40


----------



## Sadukar09

Thucydides said:
			
		

> Still the most comprehensive analysis that I have ever seen on the collapse of the North Korean regime:
> 
> http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2006/10/when-north-korea-falls/5228/
> 
> http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2009/05/north-korea-the-next-iraq/7542/



Excellent read there. Never even thought about the consequences of reunification in that way before.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Haletown said:
			
		

> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jdug6yHJB40


Yup - a memorial replay of "Team America" over the holidays is in order.


----------



## frank1515

Hey yo Kim Jong-Il, Imma let you finish but just wanted to say that Gaddaffi had the best death of all times!


----------



## Danjanou

As an homage to his passing I present this lovely blog saomeone created. 8)

http://kimjongillookingatthings.tumblr.com/


----------



## The Bread Guy

Danjanou said:
			
		

> As an homage to his passing I present this lovely blog saomeone created. 8)
> 
> http://kimjongillookingatthings.tumblr.com/


Good catch!  Something about this one....





.... temps one to start a caption contest.


----------



## GAP

milnews.ca said:
			
		

>



And....they make all this in America.....and they just gave it us?


----------



## vonGarvin

"If you think those are sausages, wait until I get you two home!"

<tee hee>  <tee hee>


----------



## Danjanou

"Why are we looking at cremation urns? You guys know something I don't?"






I ain't touching this one


----------



## PMedMoe

Danjanou said:
			
		

>



"This man has made me feel inadequate.  Off with his head!  And you bozos laughing?  Off with yours, too!!"


----------



## vonGarvin

Danjanou said:
			
		

> I ain't touching this one


You forgot to put the quotes around your caption ;D


----------



## FlyingDutchman

Yeah, its been easy for me to believe he is dead, he has been Il for quite some time.


----------



## Brad Sallows

*pop* fssssss...

Glug, glug, glug.


----------



## 57Chevy

Shared with provisions of the Copyright Act

Canada could be dragged into new Korean War if North and South collide: defence expert
Bradley Bouzane, Postmedia News, 19 Dec 
http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/12/19/canada-would-likely-end-up-getting-dragged-into-a-korean-conflict-defence-expert/

The death of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il and the changing of the guard in that unhappy country will be felt around the world, but one defence expert says the potential is there for Canada to launch a military presence there with allied forces, nearly 60 years after the end of the Korean War.

With so much uncertainty surrounding the future of North Korea under the rule of Kim’s youngest son — Kim Jong-un —Canada likely would play a key role in any international response should the regime collapse, said Christian Leuprecht of Queen’s University in Kingston, Ont.

“If there was a conflict on the Korean Peninsula, (Canada) would likely end up getting dragged into it because we consider ourselves a South Korean ally,” said Leuprecht, from the department of political studies at Queen’s. “We were there in the early 50s, so chances are we would support them again if there was a conflict. Whatever happens there has direct repercussions for us here in Canada.”

That prospect is sure to bring a chill to veterans of the brutal 1950-53 Korean War like 78-year-old Harry Marshall of Peterborough, Ont. He served 18 months in the region in 1952 and 1953; he said he hopes the situation there improves without the need for military action.


----------



## dimsum

From what I understand (bits of the History OPME coming back), since the Korean War was never officially "over", we would be obligated to participate on the side of the SK forces.


----------



## tomahawk6

The profile of the new guy is that he is sadistic and at least for the short term isnt going to be reformer.The Chinese have made a move to try to influence their Korean comrades now that Dear Leader is gone.My take is that a new generation of younger leaders need to be promoted which will require some type of retirement age.I think they did that in China.


----------



## Sadukar09

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Good catch!  Something about this one....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> .... temps one to start a caption contest.



Nodong-1 dongs-∞


----------



## GAP

FlyingDutchman said:
			
		

> Yeah, its been easy for me to believe he is dead, he has been Il for quite some time. And has now been replaced by a new Un


----------



## jollyjacktar

FlyingDutchman said:
			
		

> Yeah, its been easy for me to believe he is dead, he has been Il for quite some time.



I hope they informed his next of Kim.


----------



## FlyingDutchman

I heard they Jong out of their way to do so.


----------



## jollyjacktar

FlyingDutchman said:
			
		

> I heard they Jong out of their way to do so.



Well he was not Jong for this world.


----------



## GAP

Who knew a whole new lexicon could be created out of something so .......satisfying......


----------



## a_majoor

The amount of information is so limited that any predictions can only be speculation for now:

http://pjmedia.com/blog/will-north-korea-collapse-part-two/?singlepage=true



> *Will North Korea Collapse? (Part Two)*
> The situation in North Korea remains cloudy but some information has become available. (Also read Dan Miller's PJ Media article from November titled "Will North Korea Collapse?")
> 
> by
> Dan Miller
> 
> North Korea’s Dear Leader Kim Jong-il is dead at the age of sixty-nine. The spin by the North Korean media is that he died of a heart attack caused by overwork: “He worked day and night for socialist construction and happiness of people, for the union of country and modernisations. He left us so suddenly.”
> 
> Here is a video from the North Korean media of assembled denizens of Pyongyang, some in tight military-like formations, lamenting his death. Residence in that city, the capital, is carefully limited to those deemed faithful to the regime. Luxuries unavailable elsewhere are provided there.
> 
> An e-mail alert sent by STRATFOR on December 19 states that Kim died on
> 
> the morning of Dec. 17, according to an official North Korean News broadcast at noon Dec. 19. Initial reports say Kim died of a heart attack brought on by fatigue while on board a train. Kim is believed to have suffered a stroke in 2008, and his health has been in question since.
> 
> He may have died shortly before the 17; official reports from the North are not usually very candid.  In any event, the apparent two-day delay in the official death announcement — from the morning of December 17 until noon on December 19 — may be significant. If for nothing else, time was needed to ensure stability. Now, the country has essentially shut down:
> 
> Following the official announcement of Kim Jong Il’s death today, North Korea has imposed rigid social controls, including the complete closure of markets.
> 
> An inside source told Daily NK this lunchtime, “The jangmadang is closed and people are not allowed to go outside. Local Party secretaries are issuing special commands through local Union of Democratic Women unit chairwomen, and the chairwomen have been gathered at district offices for emergency meetings.”
> 
> According to the source, National Security Agency and People’s Safety Ministry agents have been deployed in streets and alleyways to control civilian movements. There have not been any signs of public unrest to date.
> 
> Kim Jong Il’s sudden death has apparently caught people off-guard, the source revealed, commenting, “Nobody had the slightest idea about the General’s death even right before they saw the broadcast. You can hear the sound of wailing outside.”
> 
> North Korea has also “urged an increase in its ‘military capability’ as the death of North Korea’s enigmatic leader Kim Jong Il spurred fresh security concerns in the tense region.” On the same days as Kim’s death was announced, North Korea test-fired two short-range missiles off its eastern coast. There has been little additional information from the provinces as to what else may be happening there in response to Kim’s death.
> 
> In South Korea,
> 
> President Lee Myung-bak canceled the rest of his Monday schedule and put all members of South Korea’s military on “emergency alert,” his office said. The two nations never signed a peace treaty following the Korean War of the early 1950s, leaving the two nations technically at war.
> 
> After an emergency Cabinet meeting Monday, Lee asked South Koreans “to go about their lives.”
> 
> “For the sake of the future of the Republic of Korea, peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula is more important than anything else. It should not be threatened by what has happened,” he said.
> 
> The death of Kim Jong-il will significantly disrupt the recent United States-North Korean negotiations over food aid and the termination of its nuclear activities. It was reported on December 17 that between December 15 and 17 (Kim’s death on the morning of December 17th was probably not then known by the negotiators to have occurred), the U.S. and North Korea had resumed talks about food aid and there appeared to be an agreement to send 240,000 tons of food supplies in twelve monthly shipments of 20,000 tons each. The sides, the sources said, “reached the agreement based on North Korea’s pledge to implement initial measures of denuclearization that include a suspension of its uranium enrichment program.”
> 
> On December 18 – the day after Kim’s death but the day before the official announcement — it was reported that “an agreement by North Korea to suspend its controversial uranium enrichment program will likely follow within days.” However, upon learning of Kim’s death,
> 
> the Obama administration says it remains committed to stability on the Korean peninsula and is closely monitoring developments there following the death of North Korean dictator Kim Jong Il and the apparent transfer of power to his son.
> 
> The administration had been expected to decide, possibly as early as Monday, whether to try to re-engage the reclusive country in nuclear negotiations and provide it with food aid, U.S. officials said Sunday. The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the situation, said Kim’s death would likely delay the effort.
> 
> The officials said the U.S. was concerned about any changes Kim’s death might spark in the military postures of North and South Korea, but were hopeful calm would prevail.
> 
> As a minimum, it will be necessary for the United States to gather and analyze information from credible sources on who is in charge in the North and to see what may happen there next.
> 
> Kim’s death had long been anticipated, with glee but also with trepidation. His quite young son, Kim Jong-un (variously reported as between twenty-eight and thirty), is his apparent successor and the path had been well laid for his succession; the “Brilliant Young General,” who has no military experience,  is now referred to in the North Korean media as the “Great Successor.” However, it cannot yet be divined whether he will be accepted by the military or shunted aside so that a regent can assume control. In view of substantial propaganda efforts made during the past year or so to elevate his stature and popularity in the North, his continued but perhaps temporary presence in an at least a ceremonial role seems likely.
> 
> The leadership of China, said to be the only country with good access, is likely to be better able than any other to find adequate clues for predicting and perhaps for affecting the future. China may, or may not, share some of its information with the United States and others. If it does, there is no clear reason to anticipate that it will be completely forthcoming; to do so probably would not be in China’s own best interests.
> 
> In November, I wrote an article at PJ Media titled “Will North Korea Collapse?“ It was based largely on a study done by an official Russian think tank that concluded that the collapse of the North would be triggered by the death of Kim Jong-il and that the entire peninsula would eventually come under the dominion of the South. The think tank viewed that as a positive development for Russia. The Dong A-Ilbo, a South Korean newspaper, saw substantial significance in the think tank’s analysis and commented back in November:
> 
> Russia has shunned using the term “collapse” for the North, so it is unusual for the think tank, which helps devise Moscow’s foreign policy, to consider the collapse of the North as a fait accompli. This signals that either the North is showing abnormal signs that cannot be taken lightly or Russia is making a major change in its assessment of the North’s status. Moscow has apparently judged that the North is on a downward path toward collapse and that the path is rapidly narrowing.
> 
> As also noted in my November article, Russia and North Korea’s principal ally, China, have different interests. China does not desire reunification of the peninsula under South Korean control. Rather, according to Chinese President Hu about a year ago,
> 
> “independent and peaceful reunification” of the two Koreas is “in the fundamental interest” of both sides.
> 
> Asked whether China believes “that reunification of the Korean peninsula will bring more stability than maintaining the status quo?” Hu said, “As a close neighbor and friend of [both Koreas], China hopes that the North and the South will improve relations and achieve reconciliation and cooperation through dialogue and consultation and eventually realize independent and peaceful reunification, and we support their efforts in this regard. This is in the fundamental interests of both the North and the South and conducive to peace and stability on the peninsula.”
> 
> The Chinese leadership has expressed support for reunification independent of the military and political influence of the U.S. and led by the two Koreas themselves several times. But it has been widely believed to prefer the status quo for strategic reasons. (Emphasis added)
> 
> The transition from Kim Jong-il, critical to the future of the two Koreas, had already begun by last November.
> 
> Kim Jong-un, thought to be in his late 20s, emerged from obscurity a year ago this past week as a four-star general and vice chairman of the Central Military Commission of the Workers’ Party. . . .
> 
> He has also been seen on state-run television with
> 
> “octogenarian party secretaries bowing to a man their grandchildren’s age before accepting the smiling man’s handshake or kowtowing to his instructions.”
> 
> A year after Kim Jong-un made his public debut as North Korea’s leader-in-waiting, scenes like that — the old party elite groveling — have become a staple of North Korea’s propagandist media, a crucial tool for the country’s leader, Kim Jong-il, to elevate his son as his successor.
> 
> Now that the transition, probably to Kim Jong-un but possibly temporarily and/or only as a figurehead, is substantially further underway than back in November, it may in the long term generate tensions between Russia and China. Further speculation about the short and long term consequences without additional information from the North seems pointless.  If the very recent news develops over the next few days updates will be provided.


----------



## a_majoor

More on what may happen:

http://pjmedia.com/richardfernandez/2011/12/20/what-happens-next-in-north-korea/?print=1



> What happens next in North Korea?
> 
> Posted By Richard Fernandez On December 20, 2011 @ 2:12 pm In Uncategorized | 80 Comments
> 
> Bruce Cumings, the University of Chicago academic who is the “left’s leading scholar of Korean history [1],” believes that “North Korea is a misunderstood land.” He thinks the terrible state of the northern half of the peninsula is at least partly America’s fault [2] and no one can escape the “significant responsibility that all Americans share for the garrison state that emerged on the ashes of our truly terrible destruction of the North half a century ago.”
> 
> The problem with that assertion is summarized in a graph of per capita GDP in the Washington Post [3] which shows that the divergence of the two Koreas actually occurred in the early 1970s. Prior to that time “the two countries were roughly comparable — in fact, AEI’s Nicholas Eberstadt argues that, at the time of Mao Zedong’s death, North Korea’s workers were more productive and better educated than China.”
> [4]
> 
> Self-inflicted
> 
> So you can forget the effects of the Korean War. The disaster in the North was entirely self inflicted; it was a catastrophe written and directed in Pyongyang by the Kim family.
> 
> Somehow they managed to take things from bad to worse. Ezra Klein at the Washington Post notes the second inflection point, in 1994, took place after Kim Jong Il succeeded from his brutal father. The Dear Leader managed to fix nothing and add more wreckage of his own. The North Korean economy, already in a flat dive, nosed over like a dive bomber without speed brakes and has been descending at full tilt ever since. The Spearhead [5] argues that North Korea’s dynastic mode of Communism may be partly to blame as the Kims found some way to combine the worst aspects of Communism with all the shortcomings of  hereditary decadence into a form of governance from hell. To bolster the point, it presents a series of portraits which appear to show a process of reverse evolution, like ape emerging from man.
> 
> The following pictures demonstrate a clear progression from manly alpha conqueror to effete omega descendant. One can see something of the family resemblance down the line, but Kim Jong-un, the latest scion of the Kim dynasty, is a sorry specimen compared to grandfather Kim Il-sung.
> 
> Given this unfortunate regression, the suggestion is that the North Koreans might see yet another inflection point with the accession of Kim Jung Un, the latest in the royal line.
> 
> MSNBC’s chart of the Kim dynasty [6] shows a Shakespearean palace intrigue: the banishment of the more enterprising and competent members of the Kim family into its outer reaches. They drown in the bath, die abroad, or make themselves scarce, when their fingers fail to clutch the iron ladder at the top of the heap. It’s not exactly the Partridge Family. A rundown of palace intrigue and politics is provided by the Daily Telegraph [7], which depicts an inner circle at daggers drawn:
> 
> Kim Kyong Hui: The late leader’s younger sister. She kept a low profile for decades until 2009, when she began appearing with her brother during “on-the-spot guidance” trips nationwide. Now considered a top political official who has shot up in the ranks in two years, she is expected to play a caretaker role with her nephew. Kim is said to have a fiery temperament but suffers from ill health.
> 
> Jang Song Thaek: Kim Kyong Hui’s husband and a Soviet-trained technocrat who was a rising star until he was demoted in early 2004, seen as a warning from his brother-in-law against cultivating too much influence. Jang was brought back into the fold in 2006, and he has been gaining influence since then. He heads the party’s administrative department, and oversees the intelligence agency.
> 
> Kim Yong Nam: President of the Presidium of North Korea’s parliament, often represents the country and is considered a nominal head of state. He is a member of the party’s Central Committee.
> 
> Ri Yong Ho: Vice marshal and chief of the General Staff of the Korean People’s Army, promoted to vice chairman of the party’s Central Military Commission last year and a member of the Presidium of the Political Bureau. Ri was close to Kim Jong Il and is said to have strong ties with Jang.
> 
> Choe Yong Rim: Promoted to premier last year. His family is said to have long-standing ties with the Kim family. His daughter, Choe Son Hui, is a department director at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
> 
> The relative prominence of the North Korean inner circle has been inferred from the now-famous “escalator photo” showing the late Kim Jong Il descending in splendid preeminence as the rest of the clan bring up the rear.
> 
> Given the situation, the basic scenario for North Korea is that if it goes on as before much longer the country must disintegrate. Sooner or later it will simply shake itself to pieces, leaving loose nuclear componentry everywhere.
> 
> Hence, many diplomats are pinning their hopes on being able to convince whomever is in charge that now is the time to come to Jesus, in a manner of speaking. Victor Cha, writing in the New York Times [8], emphasizes that Pyongyang is in the Last Chance Saloon.
> 
> North Korea as we know it is over. Whether it comes apart in the next few weeks or over several months, the regime will not be able to hold together after the untimely death of its leader, Kim Jong-il. How America responds — and, perhaps even more important, how America responds to how China responds — will determine whether the region moves toward greater stability or falls into conflict. …
> 
> While some observers hope that Kim Jong-il’s death will unleash democratic regime change, China will work strongly against that possibility, especially if such efforts receive support from South Korea or the United States. Given that Beijing has the only eyes inside the North, Washington and Seoul could do little in response.
> 
> Yet even China’s best-laid plans may come apart. The assistance may be too little, too late, especially given the problems the new leadership will face. A clear channel of dialogue involving the United States, China and South Korea is needed now more than ever.
> 
> People are now taking bets on whether North Korea manages to pull itself together or whether it will down that last drink and stumble off into the wilderness of destruction. Which it is going to be, argues Eli Lake [9], will soon be indicated by whether North Korea goes ahead with its scheduled nuclear test:
> 
> A key test of this proposition will be whether Kim, believed to be 27 or 28, will move forward with a third nuclear test that was widely expected for 2012. The regime of the recently departed Kim Jong-il promised that 2012 would be the year North Korea would become a “full nuclear weapons state,” language that most analysts interpreted to mean Kim intended to authorize the country’s third nuclear test….
> 
> Whether North Korea will move forward on this will depend on the younger Kim’s relationship with the country’s military, which the U.S. has tried to make inroads with in recent years despite worsening overall relations between the two countries. Experts expect significant jockeying for power inside the military even if it embraces the cult of the Kim family and its latest, youthful successor.
> 
> The leading indicator will be whether or not there will be a big boom — the nuclear kind — in North Korea and who sets it off. Not exactly a hopeful start for a new year, but for those who are interested, click here for a virtual tour [10] of North Korea. It’s not as bad as advertised. It is possibly worse.
> 
> What will the North Korean leadership do after the Dear Leader is buried?
> 
> Fight among themselves for power and complete the ruin (55%, 409 Votes)
> Stay the course and continue the Kim family business of extortion (45%, 337 Votes)
> Pull together and turn a new leaf (0%, 2 Votes)
> 
> Total Voters: 744
> 
> (Thumbnail on PJM homepage based on a modified Shutterstock.com [14] image.)
> 
> Article printed from Belmont Club: http://pjmedia.com/richardfernandez
> 
> URL to article: http://pjmedia.com/richardfernandez/2011/12/20/what-happens-next-in-north-korea/
> 
> URLs in this post:
> 
> [1] left’s leading scholar of Korean history: http://hnn.us/articles/2742.html
> 
> [2] America’s fault: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bruce_Cumings#cite_note-11
> 
> [3] Washington Post: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/the-economic-legacy-of-kim-jong-il/2011/12/19/gIQA4osP4O_blog.html
> 
> [4] Image: http://pjmedia.com/richardfernandez/files/2011/12/North-Korea-vs.-South-Korea-FIXED.jpg
> 
> [5] Spearhead: http://www.the-spearhead.com/2011/12/20/north-korea-and-dynastic-decline/
> 
> [6] MSNBC’s chart of the Kim dynasty: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/39382760/ns/world_news-asia_pacific/t/north-koreas-first-family/
> 
> [7] Daily Telegraph: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/northkorea/8964926/Kim-Jong-il-North-Korean-leader-dies-aged-69-live.html
> 
> [8] Victor Cha, writing in the New York Times: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/20/opinion/will-north-korea-become-chinas-newest-province.html?_r=1
> 
> [9] Eli Lake: http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2011/12/19/north-korea-s-youthful-new-leader-kim-jong-un-faces-nuclear-test.html
> 
> [10] virtual tour: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s6ixGYzbLz0&feature=related
> 
> [11] Storming the Castle at Amazon Kindle for $3.99: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/B005MH19XI/wwwfallbackbe-20
> 
> [12] No Way In at Amazon Kindle $3.99, print $9.99: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/1453892818/wwwfallbackbe-20
> 
> [13] Tip Jar or Subscribe for $5: http://wretchard.com/tipjar.html
> 
> [14] Shutterstock.com: http://www.shutterstock.com/


----------



## jollyjacktar

Shared with the usual caveats.  Full story and photos at link below.

Oh well, looks like I'm out of a job: South Korean 'Dear Leader' double facing grim future after demise of North Korean dictator  
By Lee Moran

He has been the spitting image of Kim Jong Il for more than decade - with his bouffant hairdo, large glasses and olive green suit.  And while he got plenty of abuse in the street from the misguided few who really thought he was the North Korean dictator, South Korean Kim Young Sik was never short of work as his double.  But now it looks like the good times are over and southern Kim will have to hang up his wide-waisted trousers for good following the death of northern Kim.  'People try to comfort me, saying some figures are more famous when they're dead, but I don't think it will be the case with Kim,' said the engraver.  But he added wistfully: 'I feel very empty, as if a part of me died.'

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2080206/Kim-Jong-Il-double-facing-grim-future-demise-North-Korean-dictator.html#ixzz1i7VsutAG


----------



## a_majoor

Some interesting facts and figures. Perhaps the best case scenario is the ruling elites flee if/when the DPRK collapses so we don't have to focus on show trials and truth and reconciliation committees, but rather focus on the integration of the two economies. Having large numbers of northerners coming south to work and sending part of their pay north as remittances might also be a good thing, and spark the rebuilding of the north (especially the rural infrastructure) at a much faster pace than otherwise possible:

http://news.yahoo.com/sudden-reunification-could-trouble-seoul-060911043.html



> *Sudden reunification could be trouble for Seoul*
> Associated PressBy FOSTER KLUG | AP – 4 hrs ago
> 
> In this Tuesday, Oct. 25, 2011 photo, a North Korean woman rides a bicycle at a collective farm near the town of Sariwon, North Korea. Kim Jong Il's death has raised hopes in South Korea that a single, reunified Korea could be coming soon. His son's quick rise to power, however, makes a sudden reunification unlikely, and that may be a good thing for Seoul. (AP Photo/David Guttenfelder)
> 
> In this Tuesday, Oct. 25, 2011 photo, a North Korean woman rides a bicycle at a collective …
> 
> In this Oct. 6, 2011 photo, a North Korean man walks near farm fields on the outskirts …
> 
> SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — A single, reunified Korea has long been a cherished dream of people on both sides of the world's most heavily fortified border. South Korea even has a Cabinet-level ministry preparing for the day.
> 
> And while Kim Jong Il's death last month has raised those hopes higher among some in Seoul, few are eager to talk about the cold reality: Sudden reunification could be traumatic for both countries.
> 
> Any North Korean collapse and hurried reunification, analysts say, could spell the end of Pyongyang's ruling class while flooding Seoul with refugees and causing huge financial burdens — perhaps trillions of dollars — for South Koreans who have only recently gotten used to their country's emergence as a rising Asian power.
> 
> Korea observers aren't predicting such a collapse or the kind of "big bang" reunification that happened in Germany, which saw the overnight fall of the communist side and its swift absorption into its Western neighbor. The new North Korean leader, Kim Jong Il's son Kim Jong Un, is fast consolidating power, winning key backing from the government and military.
> 
> Still, the extraordinary changes in North Korea following the Dec. 17 death of the man whose iron rule lasted 17 years have stirred up dreams of a single Korea among some in the South. And not just in those with memories of life before the country was divided into U.S.- and Soviet-occupied zones in 1945.
> 
> The Swiss-educated Kim Jong Un "is less allergic than his father was to introducing new ideas from the world. That will help ease isolation and open room for reunification," said Bae Sang-il, a 36-year-old office worker. "A generational change is meaningful in North Korea."
> 
> Many South Koreans support the idea of eventual reunification, but they seem more wary of the huge costs that will come with it.
> 
> A poll in South Korea late last year, before Kim's death, showed just over half of those interviewed believed they would eventually be better off after reunification, although more than two-thirds said the costs are bigger than the benefits.
> 
> Both countries talk about reunification, but they have very different notions of what it would be.
> 
> North Korea sees it as a two-state federation, with each state abiding by its own rules and regulations but as one Korea.
> 
> South Korea and its U.S. ally would likely balk at anything other than a Korea that's a liberal democracy, or at least moving in that direction.
> 
> From Seoul's point of view, slow and steady are crucial for any successful reunification. A sudden reunification would be a serious blow for South Korea's vibrant economy and well-ordered society.
> 
> South Korea, whose constitution enshrines the goal of reunification, will be much better off, analysts say, if it can gradually build up a North Korean economy that Seoul estimates is about one-fortieth its own size.
> 
> Officials in Seoul will be faced with a monumental set of problems, whatever happens. They will likely have to open up the North's economy to trade and investment, quickly raise the living standards of millions, control the flow of North Koreans into the South, and retrain North Korean bureaucrats so they can help run the country under new policies.
> 
> This will be very expensive.
> 
> A South Korean government-affiliated institute said recently that the cost could be up to $240 billion after a year and up to $2.4 trillion after a decade.
> 
> South Korea's president has urged his country to prepare for reunification by studying the possibility of adopting a tax aimed at raising money for the costs of integration. The idea has largely stalled for the time being.
> 
> The German model is often raised for Korea, but there are important differences.
> 
> Germans in the west largely footed the bill for reunification after the collapse of communism, bringing the overall infrastructure of the former East Germany up to a standard similar to that in the West.
> 
> North Korea's population, however, is about half the size of the South's, while East Germany's population was only a quarter of the West's, according to Erik Lueth, an economist at the Royal Bank of Scotland. East Germany, he points out, was one of the wealthiest of the Soviet affiliated states; North Korea is much poorer than the South, and there are estimates of widespread malnutrition.
> 
> Also, East Germany's ruling elite, chafing under the Soviet yoke, was not averse to the idea of uniting with West Germany and even accepting its capitalist system. North Korean leaders, analysts say, won't quickly accept a system that would take away their power and seek accountability for a rule that the United States and others say often trampled on rights.
> 
> "Reunification would be terrible for North Korea's elite and wonderful for the North Korean people, although there would be a traumatic period of adjustment," said Ralph Cossa, president of Pacific Forum CSIS, a Hawaii-based think tank. "For the top handful of North Korean leaders, reunification under Seoul would mean jail or worse."
> 
> For South Korea, reunification "will no doubt be messy and costly, even if it comes with a whimper, not a bang," Cossa said. Still, "living with a hostile, unpredictable, nuclear-armed North Korea is not much fun either."
> 
> Reunification could also provide eventual benefits for the South's economy.
> 
> Economist Marcus Noland at the Peterson Institute for International Economics describes a "peace dividend" that would come with a reduction in military tensions and the associated drop in military spending this would allow. The North also has abundant natural resources and a relatively well-educated and cheap labor force.
> 
> Predicting the future is, of course, a gamble, especially in a place as unpredictable as North Korea. That hasn't stopped people from trying: Paddy Power, an Irish betting agency, is offering odds of 12 to 1 that Korean reunification occurs before 2020.
> 
> History, however, provides some potential clues about North Korea's future. Despite famine, international isolation and outside skepticism, North Korea survived the 1994 death of Kim Il Sung, the North's founder and father of Kim Jong Il.
> 
> "Now, despite a food shortage and economic hardships, the regime will probably be able to avoid a worst-case scenario due to unity among its top officials and assistance from China," former South Korean Foreign Minister Han Sung-joo wrote recently in the Chosun Ilbo.
> 
> So reunification, at least for the time being, seems a distant dream. And that may be a good thing for Seoul.
> ___
> Associated Press writers Hyung-jin Kim and Sam Kim contributed to this story from Seoul. Follow AP's Korea coverage at twitter.com/APklug and twitter.com/samkim_ap


----------



## Edward Campbell

Notwithstanding the potential problems of reunification - and Germany had them, too (still has some after 20 years) - the advantages, for everyone, HUGELY outweigh the disadvantages of the status quo.


----------



## a_majoor

Same old, same old:

http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2012/01/05/china-cringes-as-north-korea-thumps-chest/



> *China Cringes As North Korea Thumps Chest*
> 
> With friends like North Korea, who needs enemies? That’s probably what China was thinking after yet another round of needless chest-thumping by its “ally” North Korea reminded all Asia why it might not be such a bad idea to keep the U.S. active and engaged in the region. The Wall Street Journal reports (subscription required) that
> 
> North Korea rebuked Japan for what it saw as a lack of respect over the death of Kim Jong Il and called Tokyo “the laughingstock of the world” because of its frequent changes of government—the latest indication Pyongyang’s new regime has no interest in improving relations with countries it considers foes.
> 
> Pyongyang’s state news agency used virtually identical language to its admonishment last week of South Korea. The comments show the regime now led by Kim Jong Il’s son Kim Jong Eun appears to be returning to its traditional pattern of lashing out at the countries it has long portrayed to its citizens as enemies: South Korea, Japan and the U.S.
> 
> As the head of state changes in “the world’s most stable” dictatorship, the regime wants everyone to be clear that nothing other than the first name of the ruling Kim will change. Meanwhile, the United States and its allies in the region are planning to step-up their security operations:
> 
> [T]he South Korean Ministry of National Defense said it would sign a new joint operational plan with the U.S., its chief ally, this month and increase the number of annual joint exercises.
> 
> China’s alliance with North Korea has always been a marriage of convenience, but the bride isn’t any better looking or sweeter tempered as the years go by. Unfortunately, China doesn’t have many options. If the Kim dynasty were to collapse, it would likely send millions of refuges across the Yalu River, creating widespread chaos in Manchuria. Nevertheless China now sees North Korea not so much as an asset but as a liability that must be tolerated.  China and North Korea may still be “closer than lips and teeth” in Chairman Mao’s old phrase, but the teeth are gritted and the jaw is clenched.


----------



## Kalatzi

"OFFICIAL STATEMENT FROM HIS EXCELLENCY ADMIRAL GENERAL ALADEEN 
 SUPREME LEADER
 ALL TRIUMPHANT GENERAL AND CHIEF OPTHAMOLOGIST OF PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF WADIYA

I am saddened to learn of the passing of my dear friend Kim Jong-Il. 
Our thoughts go out to his wife and 813 children. 
“K-Jo” was a great leader, good friend and average double’s badminton partner. 
He died as he lived, in 3-inch lifts. 
An extraordinary man, he did so much to spread compassion, wisdom and uranium throughout the world.

On behalf of myself, Ahmadinejad, Chavez and Newt Gingrinch, we would like to welcome his son, Kin Jong Un into the "Axis of Evil.”

Link Here http://splitsider.com/2011/12/sacha-baron-cohens-general-aladeen-has-released-a-statement-on-kim-jong-ils-death?ref=obsplitsider


----------



## BadgerTrapper

I felt the need to stir the pot here, 2 weeks and no activity. Not sure if you've seen this yet, but this analyses our southern neighbour one on one with North Korea.


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## SeaKingTacco

link?


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## BadgerTrapper

http://www.rense.com/general37/nkorr.htm

I apologize, kind of an "off" day.


----------



## DBA

BadgerTrapper said:
			
		

> http://www.rense.com/general37/nkorr.htm



No reasoning or analysis in it at all, just a endless barrage of factoids, anecdotes, comments and opinions followed by conclusions that take the opinions as fact.  Often they are barely related to each other. While some of the opinions and conclusions may be true there is nothing in the article to support them. It also seems to be 10+ years old with some updates made around 2003.


----------



## a_majoor

What happened with the North Koren nuclear program and the implications for other nuclearizing regimes:

http://pjmedia.com/blog/lessons-from-north-korea-for-israel-and-iran/?print=1



> *Lessons from North Korea for Israel and Iran*
> Posted By Rick Richman On February 8, 2012 @ 12:00 am In Asia,History,Homeland Security,Iran,Israel,Koreas,Middle East,US News,World News | 8 Comments
> 
> On January 20, President Obama told [1] a New York reception that “we’re not going to tolerate a nuclear weapon in the hands of this Iranian regime.” Four days later, in his State of the Union address [2], he issued this declaration:
> 
> Let there be no doubt: America is determined to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, and I will take no options off the table to achieve that goal.
> 
> The words were as direct as presidential language gets: we will not “tolerate” an Iranian nuclear weapon and will take “no options off the table” — complete with Obama’s trademark preface, “Let there be no doubt.” In his Super Bowl interview on Sunday, Obama reiterated [3] that “no option is off the table.”
> 
> But this is not the first time an American president declared he would not “tolerate” a nuclear weapon, insisted on dismantlement of a nuclear weapons program, applied crippling sanctions — and then declined to act after the regime violated an explicit presidential warning.
> 
> George W. Bush said it in 2003 with respect to North Korea; issued the warning in 2006; failed to act in 2007; and left office with an expanded North Korea nuclear weapons program in place, which expanded dramatically under Barack Obama.
> 
> The North Korea story is important not only in itself, but because of its obvious implications for the current face-off with Iran. As Iran evaluates President Obama’s seemingly clear words, it knows what happened — or didn’t happen — with respect to similar rhetoric in the case of North Korea. From the memoirs recently published by George Bush [4], Dick Cheney [5], and Condoleezza Rice [6], we can now piece together what occurred. The story places Obama’s recent words in a context that leads to an important conclusion.
> 
> In 2001, the Bush administration inherited a failed North Korea policy. The Clinton administration had negotiated an “Agreed Framework [7]” in 1994 after North Korea threatened to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. The Agreed Framework provided $4.5 billion in aid and assistance in exchange for North Korea’s promise to suspend work on its covert nuclear weapons program, but the promise was not kept. The incoming Bush administration was told that the most pressing national security question was North Korea, which was threatening again to expel all inspectors and restart its facilities.
> 
> Bush decided the Clinton approach had been backwards: U.S. concessions had been made for North Korean promises of future performance. Bush told his national security team that henceforth North Korean performance would precede any additional U.S. aid or diplomatic concessions. The new administration considered the North Korean nuclear program and its possible proliferation a global, not just a regional, issue — a concern magnified by the events of September 11 and the inclusion of North Korea in an “axis of evil” with Iraq and Iran.
> 
> There were raucous debates within the Bush administration about how to respond to North Korea. Everyone agreed North Korea was engaged in serious violations, but they differed on how to respond. Vice President Cheney and Defense Secretary Rumsfeld, together with John Bolton in the State Department, favored regime change, believing the existing regime would never make a deal (or at least not one worth making). Regime change had occurred in Iraq, and late in 2003 Libya gave up its nuclear weapons program out of concern for its own regime.
> 
> On May 23, 2003, at a joint press conference with the Japanese prime minister, Bush declared [8] the U.S. would not “tolerate” nuclear weapons in North Korea, and he defined what that meant:
> 
> We will not tolerate nuclear weapons in North Korea. … We will not settle for anything less than the complete, verifiable, and irreversible elimination of North Korea’s nuclear weapons program.
> 
> Rice favored a policy of “tailored containment” — combining pressure with sending a U.S. envoy and expanding the group of nations to negotiate. She personally prevailed on Bush to support that approach, recounting in her memoir that she had a “heart to heart” talk with him, telling him it “was surely a long shot, but maybe Kim Jong-il could be induced, step by step, to give up his nuclear ambitions in exchange for benefits, which would also be doled out step by step.” Her approach was to unite other countries on a strategy of insisting not on regime change but simply a change in regime policy, while developing defensive measures.
> 
> The “Six Party Talks” began in 2003 and from the beginning made almost no progress. But in September 2005, Rice’s envoy, Christopher Hill, reported he was close to getting agreement on a “Joint Statement” that would set a “framework” for denuclearization of the Korean peninsula. In her memoir, Rice calls the Joint Statement [9] a “breakthrough” document. But here is how she describes what happened after that:
> 
> Unfortunately, the North Korean issue would soon settle into a kind of predictable pattern; cooperation from Pyongyang and progress in negotiations followed by misdeeds and stalemate. In November, the talks stalled once again, and they would lie fallow for more than a year as North Korea probed for division among the parties and an opportunity to walk back past agreements.
> 
> The talks not only stalled but broke down. On July 4, 2006, North Korea test-fired seven missiles, including an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM), ignoring multiple warnings not to do so. The United States and Japan sponsored stronger sanctions at the UN.
> 
> A few months later, North Korea exploded an underground nuclear device. The next day, Bush went before cameras at the White House and declared [10] that North Korea was “one of the world’s leading proliferators of missile technology, including transfers to Iran and Syria.” Then he issued this warning:
> 
> The transfer of nuclear weapons or material by North Korea to states or non-state entities would be considered a grave threat to the United States, and we would hold North Korea fully accountable of the consequences of such action.
> 
> Rice thought the North Korean missile tests and underground explosion gave the U.S. the “upper hand” in public relations, and that it was therefore time to . . . engage. She argued for a strategy of offering North Korea a “grand bargain” (her words) — a peace treaty recognizing the regime if it would give up its nuclear weapons.
> 
> In early 2007 she pushed ahead, sending Hill back to North Korea in hopes of moving the process forward, and the U.S. agreed to ease sanctions and provide fuel oil in exchange for North Korea agreeing once again to a process for dismantling its nuclear weapons program.
> 
> In the Spring of 2007, however, the U.S. also learned that North Korea was secretly assisting Syria in building an undeclared nuclear reactor — one capable of producing weapons-grade plutonium. The head of Israeli intelligence met at the White House with Vice President Cheney and National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley, going over photos and other intelligence material. The pictures showed the reactor had a “striking resemblance” (the same phrase is used by Bush, Cheney, and Rice in each of their books) to the North Korean one.
> 
> Israel asked the U.S. to destroy the reactor — something Bush in his memoir says would have been “no sweat,” and which Cheney writes could have been accomplished “with ease.” Cheney supported the Israeli request — for reasons going far beyond the reactor itself:
> 
> I believed an American military strike on the reactor would send an important message not only to the Syrians and North Koreans, but also to the Iranians, with whom we were attempting to reach a diplomatic agreement to end their nuclear program. An American strike to destroy the Syrian reactor would demonstrate that we were serious when we warned as we had for years against the proliferation of nuclear technology to terrorist states. … [O]ur diplomacy would have a far greater chance of being effective if the North Koreans and Iranians understood that they faced the possibility of military action if the diplomacy failed.
> 
> Cheney held a private lunch with Bush and urged him to act, and Rice recounts that the national security team met on the issue “for the better part of two months.” Cheney made a formal presentation to the National Security Council, but both Rice and Defense Secretary Gates were opposed, and no one else supported Cheney. The CIA had a high degree of confidence that the Syrian site was a nuclear reactor, but only a low degree of confidence that it was part of a nuclear weapons program, and Bush felt this was insufficient to justify a military strike.
> 
> They recommended a diplomatic course to Israel — multilateral action to expose Syria, with the possibility of military action later if Syria did not dismantle its plant. Rice told Bush she thought Israel would accept this advice; Cheney predicted that Israel would act if the U.S. did not. A few months later Israel struck the Syrian reactor, without seeking or receiving a green light from Bush. Israel removed the threat to itself, but the U.S. failure to act sacrificed the broader impact an American strike would have had on North Korea and Iran.
> 
> Rice writes that by 2008, opponents of continued diplomacy with North Korea were asking how the U.S. could negotiate with a country that had lied about its nuclear facilities, was still pursuing nuclear weapons, and had engaged in proliferation with Syria. She acknowledges this was “a very good and penetrating question,” but she “felt strongly that we had to go the last mile.” She decided to try one more time to get a “breakthrough.” She persuaded Bush to remove North Korea from the list of state sponsors of terrorism in exchange for a “verbal commitment” from North Korea to address its uranium enrichment program. Bush removed it from the list; the commitment went unfulfilled; talks collapsed again; and the Bush administration ended.
> 
> Cheney catalogs in his memoir what happened during the first two years of the Obama administration: (a) in April 2009, North Korea tested an ICBM; (b) in May 2009, it tested a second nuclear weapon; (c) in September 2009, it announced it was in the final stages of enriching uranium and weaponizing plutonium; (d) in November 2010, it publicly unveiled 2,000 new centrifuges at its facility.
> 
> In February 2011, Director of National Intelligence James Clapper told [11] the Senate North Korea had continued to develop nuclear weapons; that “we do not know whether the North has produced nuclear weapons, but we assess it has the capability to do so”; that it had successfully tested ICBM technologies; and had quite possibly “has built other uranium enrichment facilities.”
> 
> This week — one year later — Clapper testified again before the same Senate committee. This time, he told [12] the Senate flatly that North Korea “has produced nuclear weapons.” He did not specify how many.
> 
> The same day President Obama was assuring his New York audience that he would not “tolerate” an Iranian nuclear weapon, Secretary of State Clinton was asked [13] about Iran’s recently expressed willingness to return to talks: did she believe Iran was willing to engage fully, and what steps did she want the Iranians to take? She responded as follows:
> 
> SECRETARY CLINTON: … [W]e all are seeking clarity about the meaning behind Iran’s public statements that they are willing to engage, but we have to see a seriousness and sincerity of purpose coming from them. They know we want to see them coming to the table to seriously engage about the future of a program that is prohibited under their obligations pursuant to the NPT and in light of Security Council resolutions. So we will await their response. …
> 
> QUESTION: … You didn’t say what those specific steps you wanted to see were from Iran. Can you tell us what those are?
> 
> SECRETARY CLINTON: Well, we won’t know until we know whether they’re serious about engaging with us.
> 
> QUESTION: You don’t have anything in mind already?
> 
> SECRETARY CLINTON: Oh, yeah. We do. They have to give up their nuclear weapons program. (Laughter.) They have to be – they have to be willing to come to the table with a plan to do that.
> 
> QUESTION: The confidence-building measures were specifically referenced in the [P5+1 October] letter [to Iran] –
> 
> SECRETARY CLINTON: … I think what’s important is that confidence will start with their conveying a seriousness of purpose to engage. … That would build confidence, and then the additional steps will await the actual resumption of negotiations.
> 
> After three years of outstretched hands, whirring centrifuges, and sanctions that “bite” but have not stopped the Iranian nuclear weapons program, the Obama administration wants to negotiate, but is a little uncertain about exactly what step it wants Iran to take first, other than build our confidence so negotiations can begin.
> 
> On the same day Obama and Clinton made their respective statements, the distinguished nuclear scientist Jeremy Bernstein published “Iran: The Scientists and the Bomb [14]” on the New York Review of Books blog. He expressed pessimism that sanctions or negotiations will work, and he concluded that:
> 
> Thus, if the Iranians … have a goodly stock of 20 percent enriched uranium—as they now claim they do—they should be able to reach weapons-grade pretty quickly. … So far the IAEA inspectors have been able to monitor these enrichment activities to a degree. But the Iranians have a penchant for building secret enrichment sites, and for all one knows they may have one or more of these operating. Of one thing I am quite certain. They have plans that can be used to make a nuclear weapon. …
> 
> We have announced that we will not permit the Iranians to make a nuclear weapon. But where is the red line? … What if we only know after Iran has tested a device?
> 
> In the comments section to his post, Bernstein added one more observation:
> 
> [The Iranians] also see the examples of Libya and North Korea. Libya gave up its nuclear program and look what happened. The North Koreans did not and look what happened.
> 
> What happened with North Korea was a U.S. president declared he would not tolerate a nuclear weapons program, but allowed a naive secretary of state to pursue “breakthroughs” for four years. No options were taken off the table, but none were used — not even when there was blatant North Korean proliferation in violation of an express presidential warning. Under the successor — and current — U.S. president, the North Korean program continued unabated.
> 
> As Iran’s nuclear program heads toward a possible point of no return, the U.S. inaction in 2007, and three years of continued North Korean nuclear activity under the Obama administration, with U.S. intelligence now conceding publicly that North Korea has an unspecified number of nuclear weapons, may complicate the effort to persuade either Iran or Israel of the credibility of Obama’s words.
> 
> A commitment not to “tolerate” an Iranian nuclear weapon will not likely suffice, absent significant public steps to demonstrate it is not simply rhetoric that has been heard before. Last week, the Bipartisan Policy Center issued an impressive report [15] on how to demonstrate a credible military option. It will take more than words, no matter how clearly expressed.
> 
> Article printed from PJ Media: http://pjmedia.com
> 
> URL to article: http://pjmedia.com/blog/lessons-from-north-korea-for-israel-and-iran/
> 
> URLs in this post:
> 
> [1] told: http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2012/01/19/remarks-president-campaign-event
> [2] address: http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2012/01/24/remarks-president-state-union-address
> [3] reiterated: http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-obama-in-super-bowl-interview-i-deserve-a-second-term-20120205,0,3127673.story
> [4] George Bush: http://www.amazon.com/Decision-Points-George-W-Bush/dp/0307590631/ref=tmm_pap_title_0?ie=UTF8&qid=1327884964&sr=8-1
> [5] Dick Cheney: http://www.amazon.com/My-Time-Personal-Political-Memoir/dp/1439176191/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1327885390&sr=1-1
> [6] Condoleezza Rice: http://www.amazon.com/No-Higher-Honor-Memoir-Washington/dp/030758786X/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1327643558&sr=8-1
> [7] Agreed Framework: http://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/agreedframework
> [8] declared: http://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2003/05/20030523-4.html
> [9] Joint Statement: http://www.state.gov/p/eap/regional/c15455.htm
> [10] declared: http://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2006/10/20061009.html
> [11] told: http://intelligence.senate.gov/110216/dni.pdf
> [12] told: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/world/documents/james-clapper-senate-testimony.html
> [13] asked: http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2012/01/182322.htm
> [14] Iran: The Scientists and the Bomb: http://www.nybooks.com/blogs/nyrblog/2012/jan/20/iran-scientists-bomb/
> [15] impressive report: http://www.bipartisanpolicy.org/library/report/meeting-challenge-stopping-clock


----------



## cupper

Seems like they want to stir the pot up a little more.

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/envoy/north-korea-issues-unusually-specific-threat-152720861.html

*North Korea issues unusually specific threat*

By Dylan Stableford

North Korea's military vowed a new and unusually specific threat to its neighbors, saying it would reduce South Korea "to ashes" in less than four minutes.

The statement, released Monday when programming was interrupted on North Korea's state TV by a special report, comes amid rising tensions on the Korean peninsula.

Earlier this month, North Korea was unsuccessful in a long-range missile launch, prompting worries that North Korea may conduct another nuclear test. South Korean officials say new satellite images show that North Korea has been digging a tunnel in what appears to be preparation for a third atomic test.

According to the Associated Press, the statement from North Korea was unusual in promising something soon and in describing a specific period of time.

The North Korean military threatened to "reduce all the rat-like groups and the bases for provocations to ashes in three or four minutes, (or) in much shorter time, by unprecedented peculiar means and methods of our own style."

For months the North has castigated South Korean President Lee Myung-bak and the conservative administration for insulting their leadership and criticizing a new cruise missile capable of striking anywhere in the south.

South Korean officials responded, urging North Korea to end the threats. "We urge North Korea to immediately stop this practice," Unification Ministry spokesman Kim Hyung-suk said, according to the Associated Press. "We express deep concern that the North's threats and accusations have worsened inter-Korean ties and heightened tensions."

Meanwhile, in a meeting Sunday with a North Korean delegation in Beijing, China's senior official on foreign policy praised the leadership shown by North Korea's new young leader, Kim Jong Un.

The meeting follows the April 13 launch of what the United States called a disguised ballistic missile test by North Korea. The rocket disintegrated minutes after launch.

-- With reporting by Ron Recinto


----------



## Gunnera

North Korea has launched three test flights of Taepodong-2 vehicles since 1998, with each flight resulting in failure.....North Korea launched a third test of the Taepodong-2 on April 13, 2012, which resulted in an early ...


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## Colin Parkinson

How to bite the hand that feeds you....or perhaps the leadership is begining to lose control of certain elements?

Armed N.Koreans 'kidnap Chinese sailors' 

This file illustration photo, taken from Chinese border town of Dandong, shows sun rising over the Yalu River bridge that leads into North Korea, in 2011. Twenty-nine Chinese fishermen have been kidnapped at sea by unidentified North Koreans who have demanded 1.2 million yuan ($190,000) in ransom, fellow sailors and media said Thursday. AFP - Twenty-nine Chinese fishermen have been kidnapped at sea by unidentified North Koreans who have demanded 1.2 million yuan ($190,000) in ransom, fellow sailors and media said Thursday.

The men were fishing in three separate vessels on May 8 when a group of gunmen boarded their boats and forcibly took them over, locking up those on board, said a boat owner surnamed Sun who has been in touch with them.

"On May 9, one of the kidnapped boat owners used a phone given to him by the North Koreans to call us. He said the kidnappers asked for a ransom of 400,000 yuan per boat," Sun -- who like the hostages is from the northeastern port city of Donggang -- told AFP.

Chinese state media reports said the men were fishing off the coast of northeastern China, in the waters that run between China and North Korea, when they were snatched.

The foreign ministry said it was "keeping close contact with North Korea to safeguard our citizens' rights and interests," according to reports. The ministry did not immediately respond to AFP's request for comment.

Sun, who refused to give his full name, said another boat owner he works with managed to speak to them again earlier this week.

"He could hear in the background that sailors were being beaten and there was the sound of crying, and the boat owner said they had not eaten for two days," he said.

"If the kidnappers don't get the money by today (Thursday), they will sell off the boats, which are worth 3 million yuan."

Another Donggang-based boat owner surnamed Zhang said no threats had yet been made against the sailors themselves.

Media reports say the three boats were taken to North Korean waters, but Sun said he was "100 percent sure" there were Chinese people among the hijackers.

"They left us a Chinese number, and once, the hijacked boat owner called, I picked up the phone and asked if there were any Chinese people besides them. He whispered 'yes'," he said.

Chinese fishermen regularly run into difficulties with the authorities of other countries as they fish in areas that are claimed by both China and its neighbours.

However, there was no immediate indication that the North Korean gunmen who seized the Chinese sailors were security forces from the isolated country -- a ally of China.

Calls to the Donggang government went unanswered, and an official at the government of Dandong city -- which oversees Donggang -- said they were not in charge of the case.

http://www.france24.com/en/20120517-armed-nkoreans-kidnap-chinese-sailors


----------



## MikeL

http://news.yahoo.com/us-commandos-parachuted-n-korea-report-212356834.html

I doubt this is true, 

Any other thoughts?
True/OPSEC Failure?
PsyOps campaign?
BS news story?



> US commandos parachuted into N. Korea: report
> AFP – 2 hrs 27 mins ago
> 
> US and South Korean special forces have been parachuting into North Korea to gather intelligence about underground military installations, a US officer has said in comments carried in US media.
> 
> Army Brigadier General Neil Tolley, commander of US special forces in South Korea, told a conference held in Florida last week that Pyongyang had built thousands of tunnels since the Korean war, The Diplomat reported.
> 
> "The entire tunnel infrastructure is hidden from our satellites," Tolley said, according to The Diplomat, a current affairs magazine. "So we send (South Korean) soldiers and US soldiers to the North to do special reconnaissance."
> 
> "After 50 years, we still don't know much about the capability and full extent" of the underground facilities," he said, in comments reported by the National Defense Industrial Association's magazine on its website.
> 
> Tolley said the commandos were sent in with minimal equipment to facilitate their movements and minimize the risk of detection by North Korean forces.
> 
> At least four of the tunnels built by Pyongyang go under the Demilitarized Zone separating North and South Korea, Tolley said.
> 
> "We don't know how many we don't know about," he admitted.
> 
> Among the facilities identified are 20 air fields that are partially underground, and thousands of artillery positions.
> 
> In February, South Korea's Yonhap news agency reported that had built at least two new tunnels at a nuclear testing site, likely in preparation for a new test.


----------



## Retired AF Guy

-Skeletor- said:
			
		

> http://news.yahoo.com/us-commandos-parachuted-n-korea-report-212356834.html
> 
> I doubt this is true,
> 
> Any other thoughts?
> True/OPSEC Failure?
> PsyOps campaign?
> BS news story?



My guessimate? Yes, they did send SF into N.K. to gather info and now the operation (for whatever reason) has now been halted and the Americans decided to send a not to subtle hint to the N. Koreans that the U.S. know has the locations of their underground facilities. On the other hand, the operation never happened and the Americans/S. Koreans are just jerking the Commies around.


----------



## Kirkhill

Option 1 - True
Option 2 - Psyops
Option 3 - Steve McGarrett



> Ki'ilua
> While Five-0 investigates the death of a muckraking reporter, Jenna returns to ask McGarrett for help finding her fiancé in North Korea--which is actually part of Wo Fat's revenge plot--and Joe White leads the mission to bring them home.


----------



## Nemo888

Ground penetrating radar made such incursions unnecessary at least a decade ago.(commercial) Did anyone not know about all the N Korean Tunnels? One of the worst kept secrets in the world. Only slightly more poorly kept than all the cool sh@t American satellites can do.


----------



## CougarKing

link



> *US and South Korean special forces have been parachuting into North Korea to gather intelligence about underground military installations, a US officer has said in comments carried in US media.*
> 
> Army Brigadier General Neil Tolley, commander of US special forces in South Korea, told a conference held in Florida last week that Pyongyang had built thousands of tunnels since the Korean war, The Diplomat reported.
> 
> "The entire tunnel infrastructure is hidden from our satellites," Tolley said, according to The Diplomat, a current affairs magazine. "So we send (South Korean) soldiers and US soldiers to the North to do special reconnaissance."
> 
> *"After 50 years, we still don't know much about the capability and full extent" of the underground facilities," he said, in comments reported by the National Defense Industrial Association's magazine on its website.
> 
> Tolley said the commandos were sent in with minimal equipment to facilitate their movements and minimize the risk of detection by North Korean forces.*
> 
> At least four of the tunnels built by Pyongyang go under the Demilitarized Zone separating North and South Korea, Tolley said.
> 
> "We don't know how many we don't know about," he admitted.
> 
> Among the facilities identified are 20 air fields that are partially underground, and thousands of artillery positions.
> 
> In February, South Korea's Yonhap news agency reported that had built at least two new tunnels at a nuclear testing site, likely in preparation for a new test.


----------



## tomahawk6

The official word is that BG Tolley was taken out of context. 
General officer's have to clear any prepared address. My feeling is that Tolley's comments were intended to send a message to the North. If I am correct they will be tightening up rear area security. ;D


----------



## Danjanou

Kirkhill said:
			
		

> Option 1 - True
> Option 2 - Psyops
> Option 3 - Steve McGarrett



I'm going with Number 3 Alex especially with Jimmy Buffet as the chopper driver. 8)

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2097513/fullcredits#cast


----------



## The Bread Guy

Official response....







> .... A spokesman for US forces in South Korea has dismissed the media report.
> 
> "Some reporting has taken great liberal licence with his comments and taken him completely out of context," Colonel Jonathan Withington, of the public affairs office of US Forces Korea, said in a statement.
> 
> "No US or ROK (Republic of Korea) forces have parachuted into North Korea," he said. "Though special reconnaissance is a core special operations force mission, at no time have SOF forces been sent to the north to conduct special reconnaissance.
> 
> "The use of tunnels in North Korea is well documented," he added. "Several of the known tunnels along the DMZ are visited by tourists every day."


_The Telegraph_, 29 May 12


----------



## Colin Parkinson

The US should form a Combat TBM company, buy some older tunnel boring machines, do some demo's for the ROK public and occasional let one of the soldiers get drunk with some ladies of illrepute who can tell them how hard it is working underground in tunnels 20km long.....


----------



## The Bread Guy

> The commander of U.S. Special Forces in South Korea has been replaced, reportedly for saying U.S. and South Korean troops were parachuting into North Korea to spy.
> 
> The statement reported by a Japanese magazine was denied Tuesday by U.S. and South Korean officials.
> 
> The Pentagon stated in a press release last week that Brig. Gen. Neil H. Tolley was being replaced by Brig. Gen. Eric P. Wendt, deputy commander of coalition forces in Afghanistan. A U.S. military spokesman in Seoul said Tuesday Tolley's departure was a routine job rotation and had "nothing to do with" the media report ....


United Press International, 5 Jun 12


----------



## Retired AF Guy

From the  In from the Cold  website more information on Tolley's replacement:



> Tuesday, June 05, 2012
> Loose Lips Sink (Some) Ships
> 
> _Coming soon to a basement office at Fort Belvoir?  Brigadier General Neil Tolley has been replaced as commander of U.S. special ops forces in South Korea, after claiming that allied SOF teams have conducted missions in North Korea in the past (U.S. Army photo via CBS News)_
> 
> Don't look for Army Brigadier General Neil Tolley on the two-star list anytime soon.
> 
> General Tolley, the former commander of U.S. Special Forces in South Korea, has been replaced in that post, just weeks after he publicly stated that American and ROK SOF forces have periodically entered North Korea on spy missions.
> 
> Tolley made the claim at a conference in Florida last month.  Later, both the general and military public affairs officers tried to walk back his remarks, stating that "no" special operations forces have been sent into the DPRK.
> 
> General Tolley had served as the Army's highest-ranking SF officer in South Korea since October 2010.  Army officials described his departure as a "routine" personnel change, but Tolley was supposed to serve a two-year tour.  His early departure--coupled with the claim about SOF missions in North Korea--was probably enough to end Tolley's Army career.  Readers will note that the Army announcement did not disclose Tolley's new assignment, a sure sign he's being dispatched to a "special assistant" backwater job, where he will bide his time until retirement.
> 
> And it's hard to disagree with the Army's decision.  Cross-border operations in Korea are an extraordinarily sensitive topic, since they represent a violation of the 1953 cease-fire that ended the Korean War.  Officially, the U.S. and South Korea don't send SOF teams north, although there have been rumors about such operations for years.  By denying that such missions take place, Washington and Seoul can score propaganda points when North Korean teams are captured in the south.
> 
> Additionally, the DPRK represents a very difficult target for any infiltration team.  Americans don't exactly blend in well with the local populace, and even ROK SOF teams are a difficult fit, because the typical South Korean is noticeably taller and better nourished than a DPRK soldier or civilian.  North Koreans are not allowed to travel freely in their country, but they are required to report any suspicious activity.  Members of the DPRK's large special ops command also practice counter-SOF missions on a regular basis, increasing the difficulty of getting a SOF team into (and out of) North Korea.
> 
> That's not to say it hasn't been done.  Indeed, General Tolley isn't a man given to idle boasts, and during his original remarks, he talked about North Korea's vast network of tunnels and other underground facilities (UGFs).  Some of his comments seemed to be based on ground observations that were carried out by allied special forces teams. With that information, it will be easier for Pyongyang to determine how allied SOF elements got into their country and egress routes used for escape.  Put another way: it just became much more difficult to mount such operations in the future.
> 
> But their is a touch of hypocrisy in the sacking of Neil Tolley.  For openly discussing covert missions and capabilities, General Tolley's career is (likely) at an end.  Meanwhile, senior members of the Obama Administration share all sorts of details about the SEAL raid that killed Osama bin Laden, and none have been dismissed from their posts.  Go figure.
> 
> In fact, it looks like the administration will discuss almost anything classified--as long as it can assist in Mr. Obama's re-election bid.  Producers preparing a film about the bin Laden raid were given "unprecedented access" to military and civilian officials, raising fears that sensitive operational details might be divulged, jeopardizing the success of future missions.  The administration's decision infuriated members of the Naval Special Warfare community, and rightfully so.  For obvious reasons, the SEALs prefer to operate in the shadows and they don't want politicians offering up information that might get them killed.
> 
> And just this week, Senate Democrats--you read that right--Democrats--expressed concern about national security leaks regarding a recent, reported cyber attack against Iran's nuclear facilities.  From The Hill: .
> 
> The Democratic chairwoman of the Senate Intelligence Committee on Tuesday expressed worry that leaks to the press about a cyberattack authorized by the Obama administration on Iran could lead to a counterattack on the United States.
> Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) joined other senior Senate Democrats in expressing serious concerns about the leak, which detailed a cyberattack intended to hamper Iran's nuclear program. Some Republicans argue the information was leaked to help President Obama's reelection campaign.
> 
> [snip]
> 
> Several Democrats noted the Iranian leak is just the latest in a series of media reports about classified U.S. anti-terrorism activity.
> “A number of those leaks, and others in the last months about drone activities and other activities are frankly all against national security interests,” said Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.), chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee. “I think they’re dangerous, damaging, and whoever is doing that is not acting in the interest of the United States of America.”
> 
> If Mr. Kerry wants to find the culprits, he should look towards the White House.  The same administration that has punished a number of lower-level "leakers" is quite happy to spill state secrets--if it advances the political cause.  Unfortunately, that's the way the game is played in Washington.  All administrations leak; only some are a bit more feckless than others.         .                  .
> 
> posted by Spook86 at  6:44 PM  | 0 Comments


----------



## GAP

North Korea military head Ri Yong-ho 'relieved of post'
16 July 2012 
Article Link

North Korean military chief Ri Yong-ho has been removed from all official posts, according to state media.

As well as being head of the army, he was vice-chairman of the powerful Central Military Commission and held top posts in the ruling Workers' Party.

In a short statement, the party said Mr Ri had been removed from his posts "because of illness".

The BBC's Seoul correspondent Lucy Williamson says there is widespread scepticism about that explanation.

The decision to relieve Mr Ri of his duties came at a meeting of the Workers' Party Central Committee politburo on Sunday, state-run news agency KCNA said.

The brief report made no mention of a successor.

In Seoul, a spokesman for the Unification Ministry told reporters that the move was "very unusual".

"It's quite a rare case that the North promptly and publicly announced early this morning the outcome of a meeting yesterday, on 15 July. We will keep monitoring closely," Kim Hyung-suk said.

Mr Ri was made army chief three years ago under Kim Jong-il, the current leader's father who died in December 2011 after ruling North Korea for almost two decades.

The army chief regularly appeared at state occasions beside Kim Jong-il.

He was also one of seven top officials to accompany the younger Kim as he followed the hearse containing his father's body at his state funeral.

Mr Ri was widely thought to be a figure in the inner circle of the new leader and instrumental in helping him cement his position.

His removal is now being scrutinised by analysts for signs of the direction in which Kim Jong-un, seen as young and inexperienced, will take the country.

The army and Workers' Party are the two primary institutions that bolstered the Kim family dynasty, Robert Kelly, a professor at the Pusan National University in South Korea told the BBC
More on link


----------



## The Bread Guy

> Six professors of leading North Korean universities are staying in Vancouver to study capitalism at a Canadian university on a six-month program, the program director said Friday, drawing fresh attention to the North's possible transition under its Swiss-educated young leader.
> 
> The economics professors from three North Korean universities arrived in Canada earlier this month to take courses at the University of British Columbia (UBC) in the fall semester, which begins in September, after a two-month language course, Professor Park Kyung-ae, director of the Center for Korean Research, said.
> 
> "They will mainly study international business, economics, finance and trade," Park told Yonhap News by phone, without giving further details of their identifications.
> 
> The elite universities include Kim Il-sung University, the top university named after the country's founding leader, the People's Economics University and the Pyongyang Foreign Language College, Park said. All the institutions are located in the North's capital, Pyongyang.
> 
> They are the second group of visiting professors to take the courses under the Canada-DPRK Knowledge Partnership Program, which Park helped launch at UBC last year. DPRK stands for North Korea's official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
> 
> A group of six professors, five from Kim Il-sung University, attended the program in the fall semester last year, which included meetings with CEOs of Canadian law firms, banks, insurance companies and energy firms.
> 
> "There was no such long-term program related to North Korea in the past," said Park, who visited the communist state last month. "The professors who completed last year's course did their best and had good relations with other professors and faculty members. As they successfully finished the course, we were able to continue the program this year as well."
> 
> The rare exchange program, which started under late leader Kim Jong-il, recently attracted new media attention in light of the military reshuffle by his successor Kim Jong-un, who inherited a crumbled economy after decades of Stalinist management, and a starving population dependent on foreign food aid ....


_The Korea Times_, 20 Jul 12


----------



## Oldgateboatdriver

Now that is weird.  Would it not make more sense for them to go study capitalism in Seoul or Pusan, so you don't need to learn the lingo?


----------



## SeaKingTacco

I would think that might prove to be politically unpalatable to the Regime in the North.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

GAP said:
			
		

> North Korea military head Ri Yong-ho 'relieved of post'
> 16 July 2012
> Article Link
> 
> North Korean military chief Ri Yong-ho has been removed from all official posts, according to state media.
> 
> As well as being head of the army, he was vice-chairman of the powerful Central Military Commission and held top posts in the ruling Workers' Party.
> 
> In a short statement, the party said Mr Ri had been removed from his posts "because of illness".
> 
> The BBC's Seoul correspondent Lucy Williamson says there is widespread scepticism about that explanation.
> 
> The decision to relieve Mr Ri of his duties came at a meeting of the Workers' Party Central Committee politburo on Sunday, state-run news agency KCNA said.
> 
> The brief report made no mention of a successor.
> 
> In Seoul, a spokesman for the Unification Ministry told reporters that the move was "very unusual".
> 
> "It's quite a rare case that the North promptly and publicly announced early this morning the outcome of a meeting yesterday, on 15 July. We will keep monitoring closely," Kim Hyung-suk said.
> 
> Mr Ri was made army chief three years ago under Kim Jong-il, the current leader's father who died in December 2011 after ruling North Korea for almost two decades.
> 
> The army chief regularly appeared at state occasions beside Kim Jong-il.
> 
> He was also one of seven top officials to accompany the younger Kim as he followed the hearse containing his father's body at his state funeral.
> 
> Mr Ri was widely thought to be a figure in the inner circle of the new leader and instrumental in helping him cement his position.
> 
> His removal is now being scrutinised by analysts for signs of the direction in which Kim Jong-un, seen as young and inexperienced, will take the country.
> 
> The army and Workers' Party are the two primary institutions that bolstered the Kim family dynasty, Robert Kelly, a professor at the Pusan National University in South Korea told the BBC
> More on link




Rumours are out about him dying in a shoot out between his bodyguards and the arresting parties.


----------



## GAP

So...........no pension?


----------



## a_majoor

There is an underground railroad moving small numbers of people out of the DPRK. A book has been written about this: Escape from North Korea: The Untold Story of Asia's Underground Railroad



> From the world’s most repressive state comes rare good news: the escape to freedom of a small number of its people. It is a crime to leave North Korea. Yet increasing numbers of North Koreans dare to flee. They go first to neighboring China, which rejects them as criminals, then on to Southeast Asia or Mongolia, and finally to South Korea, the United States, and other free countries. They travel along a secret route known as the new underground railroad.
> 
> With a journalist’s grasp of events and a novelist’s ear for narrative, Melanie Kirkpatrick tells the story of the North Koreans’ quest for liberty. Travelers on the new underground railroad include women bound to Chinese men who purchased them as brides, defectors carrying state secrets, and POWs from the Korean War held captive in the North for more than half a century. Their conductors are brokers who are in it for the money as well as Christians who are in it to serve God. The Christians see their mission as the liberation of North Korea one person at a time.


----------



## tomahawk6

A NORK soldier/border guard escaped into the ROK today. He claimed to have killed his platoon leader and company commander. He was part of a small group,3 of whom were killed in the attempt. Hope the soldier didnt have any living family members or else they are in the gulag. Other members of his unit are probably in for a tough time from state security. Starving people will take risks that they might otherwise not take.


----------



## Robert0288

From what I read the army usually gets priority on food.  If they're going south, might be indicative of a larger growing problem?


----------



## tomahawk6

North Korean Army units spend quite a bit of time planting and harvesting crops to get them through the winter. If there isnt enough rain they have big problems.


----------



## GAP

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> North Korean Army units spend quite a bit of time planting and harvesting crops to get them through the winter. If there isnt enough rain they have big problems.



As noted through the large number of US Aid burlap sacks in the back of the compound....


----------



## Jarnhamar

I'd send him back to North Korea to stand trial for murder.


----------



## tomahawk6

The red's would love that. No more defections. The PRC already send refugee/defectors back knowing that they and their families will be executed. These arent nice people.


----------



## Edward Campbell

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> The red's would love that. No more defections. The PRC already send refugee/defectors back knowing that they and their families will be executed. These arent nice people.




The PRC sends back _official_ defectors, usually military personnel/border guards* - I think that they assume that 99% are double agents of one sort or another. There is a fairly large NK _refugee_ population in the PRC; illegal and very, very poor but not, usually, expelled/returned.

Up on the Yalu River, near Dandong, the Chinese (used to) gather to watch the North Koreans; some Chinese would throw wrapped food and cigarettes into the river just to watch the NK soldiers/guards dive for the "treats." Sad.


----------
*They being the only North Koreans who can get close (2 km, I think) to the border.


Edit: grammar  :-[


----------



## Edward Campbell

This report, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the _Shanghaist_ web site, would be considered idle gossip except for the fact, and it is a fact, that the North Koreans have sent assassins to China before and have kidnapped people from China:

http://shanghaiist.com/2012/11/16/kim_jong-ils_son_reappears_in_singa.php?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter


> Kim Jong-il's son reappears in Singapore one year after fleeing Macau
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Kim Jong-nam
> Source: _Shanghaist_
> 
> Kim Jong-nam, the eldest son of late dictator Kim Jong-il, who reportedly fled Macau, where he had been living for a number of years, when his younger brother assumed control of North Korea, has reappeared in Singapore.
> 
> Jong-nam, who had been living in the Special Administrative Region for a number of years, ostensibly under the protection of the Chinese government, fled in January, allegedly due to a fear that his brother, Kim Jong-un, would try to have him assassinated in order to shore up his control of the tiny kleptocracy.
> 
> In October, South Korean authorities indicted a North Korean agent for violating the National Security Law. Prosecutors said Kim Yong-su had been ordered by the North Korean regime to travel to China in July 2010 to kidnap Kim Jong-nam.
> 
> Kim Yong-su has reportedly confessed to planning to bribe a Chinese taxi driver to drive into Kim Jong-nam and disguise it as an accident and claim diplomatic immunity to get him back to North Korea.
> The Chosun Ilbo reported that Kim Jong-nam moved to Singapore because his apartments in Macau were known to the media and North Korean agents. He opted to settle in Singapore as it is easy for him to travel to Europe, where his 17-year-old son is a student at an international college in Bosnia. His wife, Lee Hye-kyong and his daughter, 13, are believed to still be living in Macau.
> 
> Since falling out of favour with his father in 2003, Jong-nam has consistently tried to present himself as a reformer, claiming that it was his liberal ideals, rather than the embarrassment he caused the regime with the Disneyland incident, that caused him to lose his place in the succession. It is debatable however, how much Jong-nam's apparent appetite for reform is his merely parroting lines he knows his hosts, particularly China, want to hear.




Singapore is a very _secure_ place because Singaporeans are, broadly, very law abiding. I don't know how well equipped Singapore will be to confront the kind of thugs North Korea has, in the past, despatched to China. The Chinese have, I believe, routinely killed North Korean agents found in China and suspected to be on a mission to kill or kidnap North Koreans in China; I doubt the Singaporeans are mentally/morally/legally equipped to do that sort of thing.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Bond-style weapons carried by North Korean assassin unveiled 
An innocent-looking arsenal of lethal spy gadgets has been unveiled by officials in South Korea, although the dissident they were designed to kill continues his efforts to destroy the North Korean regime. 
Footage of three weapons that were found on a North Korean assassin when he was arrested on the platform of a subway in Seoul in September 2011 were shown on CNN on Monday. 

The weapons, which would not be out of place in a James Bond film, included what at first glance appears to be a black torch with a wrist strap and the word "police" along one side. Upon closer inspection, however, one end has three holes and each contains a bullet, with a trigger mechanism in the body of the torch. 

Two of the bullets remain in the weapon, which military authorities in the South said they have never seen before. Tests have shown that the flashlight-gun was accurate and the projectile was able to penetrate deep into a mattress from a distance of 16 feet, meaning it would have been lethal at short range. 

The two other weapons found on the assassin, identified only by his family name of An, were an ordinary-looking ballpoint pen that contained a poison-tipped needle, while another pen was capable of firing a small projectile coated in a poisonous chemical. As little as 10 milligrams of the poison is reportedly sufficient to cause breathing problems and potentially heart failure. 

The assassin had arranged to meet Park Sang-Hak in Seoul and prosecutors believe he had been ordered to kill the outspoken human rights activist. 

rest of article: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/northkorea/9704846/Bond-style-weapons-carried-by-North-Korean-assassin-unveiled.html


----------



## jollyjacktar

Chinese newspaper has a 55 page photo Kim Jong issue after getting burned by The Onion.   ;D

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2239298/The-Onion-fools-Chinese-newspaper-Kim-Jong-sexiest-man-alive-headline.html


----------



## busconductor

One of my Korean colleagues in the workplace were discussing politics in North Korea when I asked him if "North Korea's mass importation of foreign products and production of cell phones for sale to their citizens (or their market socialism) a complete surrender to capitalism. He said, "energy and transportation are owned by the state. How can  it be capitalist but socialist".. They will never surrender to a system where the law of supply and demand is irrefutably valid. My 1 cennt opinion and with due respect.


----------



## cupper

busconductor said:
			
		

> One of my Korean colleagues in the workplace were discussing politics in North Korea when I asked him if "North Korea's mass importation of foreign products and production of cell phones for sale to their citizens (or their market socialism) a complete surrender to capitalism. He said, "energy and transportation are owned by the state. How can  it be capitalist but socialist".. They will never surrender to a system where the law of supply and demand is irrefutably valid. My 1 cennt opinion and with due respect.



Huh?


----------



## a_majoor

The DPRK has finally demonstrated they can launch a long range rocket. Infographic on the National Post here: 

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/12/12/north-koreas-unha-3-long-range-rocket-graphic/

This does not mean they can launch rockets at will, and their rather spectactular failures to date indicate that this rocket must have been hand built with the personal attention of every qualified person in the DPRK, rather than being built on a factory basis like most American, Russian, Chinese and European rockets.


----------



## Edward Campbell

US officials have told _NBC News_ that the North Korean spacecraft (type still undetermined) is "spinning out of control."


----------



## wildman0101

Sinning out of control.. Oh Great. And where might it come down? When,,,Why,,Where. I seem to remember 
my history bout the German's,, Heavy Water,,, V-2 Rocket's,, Next ICBM,, Uranium ... Close to having an A-Bomb. If it wasn't for our operation's Special Force's both men and woman Plus the bombing,,, ect. Other
we as Canada know i would'nt be here today. N/K is one freaky nation.  Just my thought's. Scoty B


----------



## a_majoor

wildman0101 said:
			
		

> Sinning out of control..



OK, the Pope is on it now..


----------



## cupper

Thucydides said:
			
		

> OK, the Pope is on it now..



The man is technosavy, since he just started posting on Twitter.  :facepalm:

(Can you go to hell for face palming the Pope?)


----------



## Edward Campbell

The _Straits Times_ is reporting, via _AFP_ that the NK satellite appears dead ~ no radio signals.


----------



## 57Chevy

Article shared with provisions of The Copyright Act

North Korea to target U.S. with nuclear, rocket tests
 Reuters  
By Ju-min Park and Choonsik Yoo, 24 Jan

North Korea said on Thursday it would carry out further rocket launches and a nuclear test that would target the United States, dramatically stepping up its threats against a country it called its "sworn enemy".

The announcement by the country's top military body came a day after the U.N. Security Council agreed to a U.S.-backed resolution to censure and sanction North Korea for a rocket launch in December that breached U.N. rules.

"We are not disguising the fact that the various satellites and long-range rockets that we will fire and the high-level nuclear test we will carry out are targeted at the United States," North Korea's National Defence Commission said, according to state news agency KCNA.

North Korea is believed by South Korea and other observers to be "technically ready" for a third nuclear test, and the decision to go ahead rests with leader Kim Jong-un who pressed ahead with the December rocket launch in defiance of the U.N. sanctions.

China, the one major diplomatic ally of the isolated and impoverished North, agreed to the U.S.-backed resolution and it also supported resolutions in 2006 and 2009 after Pyongyang's two earlier nuclear tests.

Thursday's statement by North Korea represents a huge challenge to Beijing as it undergoes a leadership transition with Xi Jinping due to take office in March.

China's Foreign Ministry called for calm and restraint and a return to six-party talks, but effectively singled out North Korea, urging the "relevant party" not to take any steps that would raise tensions.

"We hope the relevant party can remain calm and act and speak in a cautious and prudent way and not take any steps which may further worsen the situation," ministry spokesman Hong Lei told reporters at a regular press briefing.

"We hope the relevant party can remain calm and act and speak in a cautious and prudent way and not take any steps which may further worsen the situation," ministry spokesman Hong Lei told reporters at a regular press briefing.

North Korea has rejected proposals to restart the talks aimed at reining in its nuclear capacity. The United States, China, Russia, Japan and the two Koreas are the six parties involved.

"After all these years and numerous rounds of six-party talks we can see that China's influence over North Korea is actually very limited. All China can do is try to persuade them not to carry out their threats," said Cai Jian, an expert on Korea at Fudan University in Shanghai.

Analysts said the North could test as early as February as South Korea prepares to install a new, untested president or that it could choose to stage a nuclear explosion to coincide with former ruler Kim Jong-il's Feb 16 birthday.

"North Korea will have felt betrayed by China for agreeing to the latest U.N. resolution and they might be targeting (China) as well (with this statement)," said Lee Seung-yeol, senior research fellow at Ewha Institute of Unification Studies in Seoul.

U.S. URGES NO TEST (continues at link)


----------



## a_majoor

While the DPRK is only marginally capable of creating rockets to threaten the United States, it would be folly to suggest that the US (or anyone else, for that matter) rely on China to control the DPRK. The Chinese have their own agenda, and having the DPRK to use as a cat's paw to distract and disrupt other powers operating in the region is probably much more attractive to the Chinese leadership than actually "controlling" the DPRK in any meaningful way.

The United States and her allies would be far better off continuing to isolate the DPRK (let China carry the whole cost of logistical support to the DPRK), while also perfecting technical means to neutralize or mitigate the effectiveness of North Korean rocketry. The ABM Squadron in Alaska is a good start, and more modern technical means from advanced sensors to ship born and airborne systems designed to intercept missiles can be developed and deployed in the region as well.


----------



## GK .Dundas

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> This report, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the _Shanghaist_ web site, would be considered idle gossip except for the fact, and it is a fact, that the North Koreans have sent assassins to China before and have kidnapped people from China:
> 
> http://shanghaiist.com/2012/11/16/kim_jong-ils_son_reappears_in_singa.php?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
> 
> Singapore is a very _secure_ place because Singaporeans are, broadly, very law abiding. I don't know how well equipped Singapore will be to confront the kind of thugs North Korea has, in the past, despatched to China. The Chinese have, I believe, routinely killed North Korean agents found in China and suspected to be on a mission to kill or kidnap North Koreans in China; I doubt the Singaporeans are mentally/morally/legally equipped to do that sort of thing.


 Wait a minute the ....Disney Land Incident????  Ahh yes North Korea  the gift that keeps on giving! :rofl:


----------



## 57Chevy

Thucydides said:
			
		

> The Chinese have their own agenda



So does North Korea, or so it seems.
They want to go ahead and do they want, when they want, and how they want to go about doing it, whatever THAT may be.


N. Korea threatens South if it supports U.N. sanctions
Calum MacLeod, 25 Jan
 USA Today 

BEIJING — North Korea warned Friday it will take "strong physical countermeasures" against South Korea if Seoul takes part in United Nations sanctions aimed at punishing Pyongyang for the rocket launch.

"Sanctions mean war and a declaration of war against us," the Committee for Peaceful Unification of the Fatherland said in a statement carried by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency.

The threat comes a day after North Korea vowed Thursday to target the USA, its "sworn enemy," with a nuclear test and further long-range missile tests, as Pyongyang continued to reject a U.N. Security Council resolution that expanded sanctions against the already highly isolated nation.

South Korea said Friday it will not tolerate North Korean provocations but will continue to push for dialogue with Pyongyang, a special envoy to President-elect Park Geun Hye said after the North's top governing body declared it would continue atomic tests and rocket launches.

"President-elect Park makes it clear that North Korea's nuclear ambitions and further provocations against the South will not be tolerated," envoy Rhee In Je said at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. 

Article shared with provision of The Copyright Act
and continues at link...


----------



## a_majoor

All too true. The Chinese do not have total control over the DPRK, but since they have the logistical lifeline that keeps the state going, they have more control than the ROK, the United States or us, for that matter.

I strongly suspect that having the DPRK disrupt the region or draw attention to itself and away from other things is, to the Chinese leadership, something that outweighs the disadvantages of having the DPRK around.


----------



## Edward Campbell

There are disturbing reports in the media about continued famine, starvationsand even cannibalism in North Korea. Perhaps it is reminiscent of the great Chinese famine of 1958-62 in which tens of millions died. It is, almost certainly, caused by the same _socialist_ errors: forced collectivization which everyone with an IQ above absolute zero knows is stupid, and the sort of bureaucratic fear that is endemic in totalitarian states.


----------



## dapaterson

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> There are disturbing reports in the media about continued famine, starvations and even cannibalism in North Korea. Perhaps it is reminiscent of the great Chinese famine of 1958-62 in which tens of millions died. It is, almost certainly, caused by the same _socialist_ errors:* forced collectivization* which everyone with an IQ above absolute zero knows is stupid, and the sort of *bureaucratic fear* that is endemic in totalitarian states.



Is this the North Korea thread or Idle No More thread?


----------



## GAP

dapaterson said:
			
		

> Is this the North Korea thread or Idle No More thread?



They got their stupids, we got our stupids.....only difference is their's is in power, our's is working towards that.....


----------



## 57Chevy

It has probably been said before but after reading ERs article on preceeding page,
China should just go ahead and invade North Korea,
seize their military assets etc, and burn piles of uniforms.


----------



## Edward Campbell

Although they are often an annoyance, the North Koreans are, broadly and generally, of value to China.

They keep the US (and Japan) off balance ~ something that serves China's _strategic_ interests and they tie down US military resources that might, otherwise, be available elsewhere; and they force the US to pay for those military forces, something it really cannot afford.

But the Koreans are not always compliant clients.

I remain fully convinced that China can and will reunify Korea, under a democratic South Korean led government, as soon as the US agrees to withdraw all its forces from the Korean Peninsula.


----------



## cupper

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> I remain fully convinced that China can and will reunify Korea, under a democratic South Korean led government, as soon as the US agrees to withdraw all its forces from the Korean Peninsula.



I suspect that Taiwan would be part of that proposal as well, which would make it a non-starter from the US point of view.


----------



## a_majoor

If the DPRK collapses the Chinese will try to manipulate the situation to their advantage, but there will be lots of other factors in play as well. This is probably the best single article that I have read on the subject:

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2006/10/when-north-korea-falls/305228/


----------



## Edward Campbell

cupper said:
			
		

> I suspect that Taiwan would be part of that proposal as well, which would make it a non-starter from the US point of view.




Taiwan and Korea are distinctly different in the Chinese strategic calculus: Korea is a pawn, it can be sacrificed for advantage; Taiwan is the king on the board ~ it cannot be lost.  There may be a dozen people in all of China who care what America thinks about Taiwan - the other 1.345 billion are convinced that Taiwan is a province of China and its fate is an exclusively internal Chinese matter, one in which America has no voice.

China will not fight over Korea but it will over Taiwan. No Chinese government, including this totalitarian one, could survive the surrender of Taiwan.


----------



## cupper

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> No Chinese government, including this totalitarian one, could survive the surrender of Taiwan.



Not sure but you may have misunderstood my comment. My bad for not making my point clearer.  :nod:

I was suggesting that China would allow the Korean Peninsula to come under one democratic government in return for Taiwan coming back under Mainland rule.

It's pretty clear that the Government in Beijing would never give up any claim on Taiwan.


----------



## cupper

*Google releases detailed map of North Korea, gulags and all*

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2013/01/28/google-releases-detailed-map-of-north-korea-gulags-and-all/?hpid=z3



> Until Tuesday, North Korea appeared on Google Maps as a near-total white space — no roads, no train lines, no parks and no restaurants. The only thing labeled was the capital city, Pyongyang.
> 
> This all changed when Google, on Tuesday, rolled out a detailed map of one of the world’s most secretive states. The new map labels everything from Pyongyang’s subway stops to the country’s several city-sized gulags, as well as its monuments, hotels, hospitals and department stores.
> 
> According to a Google blog post, the maps were created by a group of volunteer “citizen cartographers,” through an interface known as Google Map Maker. That program — much like Wikipedia — allows users to submit their own data, which is then fact-checked by other users, and sometimes altered many times over. Similar processes were used in other once-unmapped countries like Afghanistan and Burma.
> 
> In the case of North Korea, those volunteers worked from outside of the country, beginning from 2009. They used information that was already public, compiling details from existing analog maps, satellite images, or other Web-based materials. Much of the information was already available on the Internet, said Hwang Min-woo, 28, a volunteer mapmaker from Seoul who worked for two years on the project.
> 
> North Korea was the last country virtually unmapped by Google, but other — even more detailed — maps of the North existed before this. Most notable is a map created by Curtis Melvin, who runs the North Korea Economy Watch blog and spent years identifying thousands of landmarks in the North: tombs, textile factories, film studios, even rumored spy training locations. Melvin’s map is available as a downloadable Google Earth file.
> 
> Google’s map is important, though, because it is so readily accessible.  The map is unlikely to have an immediate influence in the North, where Internet use is restricted to all but a handful of elites. But it could prove beneficial for outsider analysts and scholars, providing an easy-to-access record about North Korea’s provinces, roads, landmarks, as well as hints about its many unseen horrors.
> 
> In the country’s northeast, for instance, Google has labeled what it calls the “Hwasong Gulag.” One street, called Gulag 16 Road, cuts through it. And at the end of Gulag 16 Road is a train station. Beyond that, little else around the gulag is marked.
> 
> The map’s publication comes just weeks after the visit to North Korea of Google Executive Chairman Eric Schmidt, who toured the country in a series of highly staged encounters that included a stop at a computer library, which Schmidt’s daughter later described in a blog post as the “e-Potemkin Village.” Schmidt’s visit was unrelated to the map roll-out, a Google spokesman said.
> 
> Google, in its blog post about the new North Korea map, acknowledged that the information is “not perfect.”
> 
> “We encourage people from around the world to continue helping us improve the quality of these maps for everyone” with the map-making program, Google said.
> 
> Melvin quickly spotted a mistake in Google’s version.
> 
> Google’s map shows a golf course on Yanggak Island, on a river that curves through Pyongyang.
> 
> But Melvin, citing recent photographs from tourists, said the golf course no longer exists.



Check here for side by side comparisons of Google Maps before and after the updates.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/world/Google-unveils-detailed-map-of-North-Korea/index.html?hpid=z3


----------



## daftandbarmy

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> There are disturbing reports in the media about continued famine, starvationsand even cannibalism in North Korea. Perhaps it is reminiscent of the great Chinese famine of 1958-62 in which tens of millions died. It is, almost certainly, caused by the same _socialist_ errors: forced collectivization which everyone with an IQ above absolute zero knows is stupid, and the sort of bureaucratic fear that is endemic in totalitarian states.



More here:

North Koreans eating their own kids


http://www.newser.com/story/161746/north-koreans-eating-their-own-kids-reports.html


----------



## OldSolduer

daftandbarmy said:
			
		

> More here:
> 
> North Koreans eating their own kids
> 
> 
> http://www.newser.com/story/161746/north-koreans-eating-their-own-kids-reports.html



If this is true it's truly horrific. I cannot put in to words the revulsion I feel after reading that. Lets hope it's not true but I have a feeling it may be.


----------



## Edward Campbell

Cannibalism, including killing and eating one's own children, is a well documented side effect of government induced famines.

See: _*Tombstone* The Great Chinese Famine 1958-1962_, Yang Jisheng, (translated by Stacey Mosher and Guo Jian), New York 2008; and _*The Great Famine in China, 1958-1962* A Documentary History_ Zhou Xun (Editor), New Haven, CT, 2012


----------



## Pandora114

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> Cannibalism, including killing and eating one's own children, is a well documented side effect of government induced famines.
> 
> See: _*Tombstone* The Great Chinese Famine 1958-1962_, Yang Jisheng, (translated by Stacey Mosher and Guo Jian), New York 2008; and _*The Great Famine in China, 1958-1962* A Documentary History_ Zhou Xun (Editor), New Haven, CT, 2012



and Here:  http://www.paulbogdanor.com/left/cannibalism.pdf

Happened in Stalin's Russia as well.


----------



## OldSolduer

Pandora114 said:
			
		

> and Here:  http://www.paulbogdanor.com/left/cannibalism.pdf
> 
> Happened in Stalin's Russia as well.



I did not know that. One more thing to look into.


----------



## Edward Campbell

Cannibalism is not _*the *_great sin or, even, _*a*_ great sin. The great sin is incompetence and the cowardly dishonesty that allows famines to continue when _collectivization_ is clearly, obviously and *always* the wrong answer to agricultural productivity.

But communists are nothing but socialists in a hurry and socialist are always economic idiots.


----------



## 57Chevy

Thucydides said:
			
		

> This is probably the best single article that I have read on the subject:
> http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2006/10/when-north-korea-falls/305228/



Agreed 100%. Change the dates and a few names, the article seems pretty well current
Not much has changed.
A must read.

This article from Human Right Watch and shared
with provisions of The Copyright Act outlines how 
Japan should take the initiative to call for the establishment of a Commission of Inquiry at this
upcoming 22nd session of the UN Human Rights Council.

The Central Role of Japan in Addressing Human Rights Abuses in North Korea 
January 21, 2013
 Letter to Japanese Prime Minster Shinzo Abe 

excerpt:
...on January 14, 2013, the UN High Commissioner on Human Rights, Navanethem Pillay, called for urgent attention to human rights abuses in North Korea which she characterized as having “no parallel anywhere else in the world.” She added that the time has come for “a full-fledged international inquiry.” 
...


----------



## Colin Parkinson

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> Cannibalism is not _*the *_great sin or, even, _*a*_ great sin. The great sin is incompetence and the cowardly dishonesty that allows famines to continue when _collectivization_ is clearly, obviously and *always* the wrong answer to agricultural productivity.
> 
> But communists are nothing but socialists in a hurry and socialist are always economic idiots.



When a communist says: “We regret the excesses committed by officials in the name of program XXXXXX” You know lots and lots of people have died and many other suffered to a point where it can no longer be hidden..


----------



## Edward Campbell

Reports are coming out now (2230 Hrs EST 12:30 PM in Korea) that North Korea conducted a nuclear test today.


----------



## Edward Campbell

And here is the official DPRK news announcement.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
Anyone else notice that all _official_ announcements, Korean, American, Chinese, Russian or Canadian, sound rather alike? Maybe there's one company, probably in Mumbai, that writes them all on an "outsourced" contract.


----------



## Shinobi

Surprised this isn't getting more attention.


----------



## Journeyman

Shinobi said:
			
		

> Surprised this isn't getting more attention.


What more attention were you hoping for?  The news services, from BBC to al Jazeera, are all carrying it.  The assorted "think tanks" I follow are all discussing it.  It's here at Milnet.ca...   

       ???


----------



## Edward Campbell

Journeyman said:
			
		

> What more attention were you hoping for?  The news services, from BBC to al Jazeera, are all carrying it.  The assorted "think tanks" I follow are all discussing it.  It's here at Milnet.ca...
> 
> ???




And, of course, the United Nations Security Council has condemned the DPRK tests and US President Obama (same link) has called for "swift and credible action," so everything must be all right ... no?

It reminds me of an old, old story about a farmer who, one Sunday during the harvest, could not go to church, but his wife went and when she got home the always attentive farmer said to her, "What did the minister preach on?" "Sin," she replied. "What did he say?" asked the farmer. "He's against it," she answered. If the UNSC and President Obama are against it what more needs to be said?


----------



## Journeyman

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> I remain fully convinced that China can and will reunify Korea, under a democratic South Korean led government, as soon as the US agrees to withdraw all its forces from the Korean Peninsula.


However, according to a former Thai Foreign Minister with experience in Pyongyang, upon asking how they would react to a complete withdrawal of US troops from South Korea, was told it would be an act of destabilisation -- a precursor to a US missile strike.

North Korea leads the world in its own form of freestyle, recreational psychoses.   :stars:


----------



## 57Chevy

Their dumba$$ mini nuke (so to speak) is likely to have caused a  5.1 earthquake  according to the USGS.

A 4.9 magnitude earthquake was felt in North Korea with the epicenter supposedly near known North Korean nuclear test sites. Which means, the earthquake—which is unnatural to the region—was probably caused by North Korea detonating a nuke. This would be the third time North Korea has performed a nuclear test—the other times being in 2006 and 2009. The 2006 test brought a 3.9 magnitude earthquake while the 2009 nuclear test bumped the region with a 4.5 magnitude earthquake.  Link  is shared with provisions of The Copyright Act

Just putting this out there,
I am wondering if it is their real intent.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Canada's Foreign Affairs Minister on nuke test:  BAAAAAAAAD North Korea!


> Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird today issued the following statement:
> 
> “The North Korean regime’s reckless disregard for the global will is again on display.
> 
> “This test—North Korea’s third—is provocative and marks a serious, misguided threat to regional peace and security.
> 
> “What makes such actions even more unconscionable is the fact that the North Korean people starve and are denied their basic human dignity while the Pyongyang regime squanders limited resources.
> 
> “While we had hoped the passing of dictator Kim Jong-il would have closed a sad chapter in North Korea, we are disappointed that his son has continued the irresponsible path of placing weapons before the well-being of people.
> 
> “Canada will work with our international partners to pursue all appropriate actions and sanctions against the rogue regime in North Korea.”


----------



## OldSolduer

Pesky little critters aren't they?

Where are they getting their fissionable material? China?


----------



## Edward Campbell

Jim Seggie said:
			
		

> Pesky little critters aren't they?
> 
> Where are they getting their fissionable material? China?




Nope, not a chance ... from Arabs or Iranians, most likely, to whom, in turn, it was, improperly supplied (that is to say without the government's permission) by Russian criminals, AKA poverty stricken generals and scientists.


----------



## Journeyman

I suspect that China is getting increasingly....miffed...with North Korea.

Less and less are they a useful, somewhat compliant buffer against the Americans, South Koreans, and Japanese.  They're increasingly a burden, politically and economically (although the trade tends to go one way), and I suspect that China is a little concerned with an influx of starving, armed North Korean refugees crossing the Yalu and Tumen Rivers.


----------



## 57Chevy

Jim Seggie said:
			
		

> Pesky little critters aren't they?
> 
> Where are they getting their fissionable material? China?



North Korea has 8 industrial-scale uranium mining and plants for milling, refining, and converting uranium;
it also has a fuel fabrication plant, a nuclear reactor, and a reprocessing plant—in short, everything needed to produce Pu-239.

How North Korea Makes Nuclear Bombs From Scratch  is shared with provisions of The Copyright Act

see also (PDF) at link


----------



## Edward Campbell

Journeyman said:
			
		

> I suspect that China is getting increasingly....miffed...with North Korea.
> 
> Less and less are they a useful, somewhat compliant buffer against the Americans, South Koreans, and Japanese.  They're increasingly a burden, politically and economically (although the trade tends to go one way), and I suspect that China is a little concerned with an influx of starving, armed North Korean refugees crossing the Yalu and Tumen Rivers.




Very true, security is tight on the China/DPRK border ~ DPRK is not a _compliant_ client state. There are persistent  rumours that China "owns" a small/modest/large/overwhelming share of the North Korean generals and senior officials but no one is saying that China could - or would - stage a coup (à la the US managed coup that overthrew Vietnamese President Ngô Đình Diệm in 1963) but that is, probably the only way out for China. 

But China's overarching aim is to get major US military forces off the Asian mainland and they will put up with a lot of sass from te North Korean's while they wait for that to happen. Despite the very occasional kidnapping by North Korean border guards of a Chinese citizen who gets too close to the border, the DPRK is more annoyance than a real threat to Chinese interests.


----------



## a_majoor

Building a nuclear device is actually not all that difficult. There are even relatively simple and well known ways to turn Uranium Hexaflouride into the pure metal. The only "difficult" steps (difficult meaning you need a pretty sophisticated industrial plant to do so) involve enrichment of the Uranium to "weapons grade".

If you are not too focused on worker safety, you could even potentially create the device in a fairly well equipped workshop, although the neighbours might start wondering why the cat's hair is falling out in clumps and all the plants are dying.

Rocket science is also relatively simple (the "rocket equations" were independently discovered in Tsarist Russia, Germany and the United States, and all three nations had powerful home built rockets on the go by the end of the 1920's. Even the technology can be pretty robust and idiot proof; German A-4 [V-2] rockets were built on an assembly line by slave labour and tended to be fairly reliable). Going for improved performance by decreasing margins with lighter designs, or adding stress to the design with more powerful engines is generally why rockets fail; they are too close to the margins.

So we should not be surprised when nations like the DPRK, Pakistan and potentially Iran become capable of building nuclear weapons and rockets to deliver them out of their own resources. The only "good" thing is this consumes lots of resources that could be used for other things, so perhaps we should be careful what we wish for.


----------



## cupper

My understanding is that the two most difficult issues are getting the explosives package to function properly so that you have a completely symmetrical blast wave, depending on the type of trigger you use.

And the other problem is miniaturizing the the full package to a reasonable sized payload for your missile system to carry, yet still achieve sufficient yield.


----------



## a_majoor

As always, the type of constraints you are willing to accept determine the outcome.

If I don't want to screw around with a symmetric explosion I can go for a uranium "gun" bomb. Depending on the yield I am willing to accept, I can make the physics package fairly compact and change the parameters of the yield by adjusting "other" things. (to make a bomb that is light and powerful requires some sophistication, but I can easily make a light and weak bomb, or a heavy and powerful one). If my weapons delivery system is a couple of guys in a van, I can make a pretty crude device that still will be highly effective. You can also see the evolution of the devices by looking at rockets and bombers; the B-36 was nicknamed "the aluminum cloud" because it needed to carry a singular nuclear weapon the size of a semitrailer. Rockets like the Atlas and Titan were needed to carry early generation weapons, but now much smaller ICBMs and SLBMs can carry multiple warheads in a single launch. (About the only exception to this trend was the SS-18 from the USSR. My understanding was these were needed to loft massive 20MT warheads in order to turn Cheyenne Mountain into Cheyenne lake...) 

So as long as relatively poor nations are willing to accept sub optimal outcomes in order to have a nuclear weapon, then it is entirely possible for them to do so.


----------



## cupper

Very true.

The question is what is Pyong Yang planning for?

Deter other nuclear armed powers?

Strike at the South? The US?

Supply it to an interested third party?

or more realistically use it as a bargaining chip for more credibility.

These would be partial drivers for the overall design options as you outlined in your discussion.


----------



## a_majoor

An interesting peak into the mindset of the DPRK. As the author notes, it will be a challenge to re integrate these people into the community of nations given their indoctrination:

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2013/02/06/matt-gurney-happiness-is-raining-missiles-on-your-american-enemies-from-space/



> *Matt Gurney: Happiness is raining missiles on your American enemies from space*
> 
> Matt Gurney | Feb 6, 2013 12:10 PM ET | Last Updated: Feb 6, 2013 12:29 PM ET
> More from Matt Gurney | @mattgurney
> 
> As dangerous as North Korea is, and it’s plenty dangerous, and as brutal as it is to its own people, and it’s plenty brutal, it also has to be the most amusingly bizarre nation on Earth. I challenge anyone to watch the recent propaganda video uploaded by a state-controlled website and not have at least a few moments of genuine laughter at its absurdity.
> 
> To call the video (above) bizarre doesn’t do it justice. It will sound absurd even in the description, but in short, it’s about a happy North Korea astronaut having a wonderful dream. In the dream, he blasts off into orbit on some kind of space plane. Once in the heavens, he swoops around, leaving colourful contrails (I am reasonably certain that does not actually happen in space). He orbits the Earth at great altitudes, and looks out at our beautiful blue marble. He sees, from high above, the joyous celebrations of all Koreans as the peninsula is reunited (under North Korean rule, of course).
> 
> Related
> 
> North Korea releases rocket-launch video that shows a New York-like city in flames
> North Korea warns of ‘dark cloud of war’ as South begins naval drills ahead of ‘imminent’ nuclear test
> 
> It’s all so wonderful and happy, set to the music from supergroup USA for Africa’s hit “We Are The World.”
> 
> Oh, I forgot one part of the wonderful, relaxing, blissful dream sequence — the part where our contented space traveller rains missiles and death down upon a major American metropolis.
> 
> Attempting anything like a serious analysis of this video is a challenge
> 
> You have to see it for yourself. The description above doesn’t do it justice. The video treats bombarding the city as another great moment in the amazing life of the world’s luckiest man. (And it’s been brought to my attention by a colleague that the scenes of the attack were actually ripped off from the computer game Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 — you can see the clip they stole here). The soundtrack doesn’t even switch over to something more martial or even tense. The weirdly low-tempo piano version of “We Are The World” never misses a beat.
> 
> Call me twisted, but watching the video, I couldn’t help but rewrite the lyrics to the song in my head. I came up with this:
> 
> We are the world
> We are the children
> Sometimes it’s really nice
> To flatten a city
> 
> Look, it works when you sing it, OK? (For your reference, I assumed it would have been Michael Jackson singing that part.)
> 
> Attempting anything like a serious analysis of this video is a challenge, but here goes: As odd as the video is, it is interesting as an insight into the North Korean mindset. The country has of late been attempting to launch satellites into space, including two launches last year. (In the first, the rocket failed; in the second, the rocket worked, but the satellite seems to have been a dud).
> 
> The darker meaning is the message that raining destruction down upon an American city wouldn’t be an act of barbarity
> 
> It is widely believed in the West that the satellite launches are mere cover for ballistic missile tests, as the technological differences between a rocket that can launch a satellite into space and a missile that can drop a nuclear warhead on a city are relatively minor. North Korea denies this and insists that it is pursuing a traditional space program, as befits a nation of its (self-assured) prestige and stature. A video of a North Korean astronaut, aboard an advanced spacecraft, suggests that, if nothing else, the North Koreans are selling the fantasy of North Korea space voyagers to their own people, not just a skeptical West.
> 
> And the darker meaning, related to that, is the message that raining destruction down upon an American city wouldn’t be an act of barbarity, or even an unfortunate duty to be carried out by saddened military men. Killing Americans, instead, is a pleasure, something to be celebrated and proud of.
> 
> Sooner or later, North Korea will fall, and the country’s population will be integrated into the broader global community. Videos like this show how incredibly difficult a process that will be, for the North Koreans themselves most of all.



And an inforgraphic as well:

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/02/13/graphic-dprk-intentions/


----------



## 57Chevy

And now as the saga continues, the so-called North Korean diplomat Jon Yong Ryong so undiplomatically
heralds the final destruction of South Korea, and compares his leader Kim Jong-il to a new born puppy. (Good one Jon)  :facepalm: 
Maybe they should worry more about how they so blatantly pissed off the dragon, their longtime provider. 


 North Korea threatens 'final destruction' of South at UN 
Article from The Associated Press dated 19 Feb is shared with provisions of The Copyright Act


----------



## Edward Campbell

The, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the _Financial Times_ is as close to anything _official_ that I have seen or that we are likely to see out of China, and it is bad news for the DPRK:

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/9e2f68b2-7c5c-11e2-99f0-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2M98C5gov


> China should abandon North Korea
> *Beijing would be wise to give up on wayward Pyongyang, writes Deng Yuwen*
> By Deng Yuwen
> 
> February 27, 2013
> 
> North Korea’s third nuclear test is a good moment for China to re-evaluate its longstanding alliance with the Kim dynasty. For several reasons, Beijing should give up on Pyongyang and press for the reunification of the Korean peninsula.
> 
> First, a relationship between states based on ideology is dangerous. If we were to choose our allies on ideology alone, China’s relationship with the west today would not exist. Although both countries are socialist, their differences are much larger than those between China and the west.
> 
> Second, basing China’s strategic security on North Korea’s value as a geopolitical ally is outdated. Even if North Korea was a useful friend during the cold war, its usefulness today is doubtful. Just imagine if the US, because of Pyongyang’s development of nuclear weapons, came to see North Korea as a grave threat to its national security and launched a pre-emptive attack on it. Would China not be obliged to help North Korea based on our “alliance”? Would that not be drawing fire upon ourselves? If so, what useful “buffer” would be left to speak of? China’s own strength and openness will be its most reliable safeguard.
> 
> Third, North Korea will not reform and open up to the world. The international community once hoped that Kim Jong-eun would push reforms after taking power in 2011, and North Korea seemed to show signs of such a move. But even if he personally had the will to push small-scale reform, the country’s ruling group would absolutely not allow him to do so. Once the door of reform opened, the regime could be overthrown. Why should China maintain relations with a regime and a country that will face failure sooner or later?
> 
> Fourth, North Korea is pulling away from Beijing. The Chinese like to view their relationship with Pyongyang through their shared sacrifice during the Korean war instead of reality. They describe it as a “friendship sealed in blood”. But North Korea does not feel like this at all towards its neighbour.
> 
> As early as the 1960s, North Korea rewrote the history of the war. To establish the absolute authority of Kim Il-sung, its founder, North Korea removed from historical record the contribution of the hundreds of thousands of sons and daughters of China who sacrificed themselves to beat the UN troops back to the 38th parallel that now divides the peninsula. Many cemeteries commemorating the volunteer soldier heroes have been levelled, and Kim Il-sung was given all the credit for the offensive. For the North Korean people, shaking off the “Chinese bond” was seen as an expression of independence and autonomy.
> 
> Last, once North Korea has nuclear weapons, it cannot be ruled out that the capricious Kim regime will engage in nuclear blackmail against China. According to Xue Litai of Stanford University, during former US president Bill Clinton’s 2009 visit to Pyongyang, the North Koreans blamed the poverty of their economy on China’s “selfish” strategy and American sanctions. Kim Jong-il, then leader, hinted that the motive for withdrawing from six-party talks on his country’s arms programme was to free Pyongyang from Beijing. It was not directed against the US. He suggested that if Washington held out a helping hand, North Korea could become its strongest fortress against China. And Pyongyang revealed it could use a nuclear arsenal to coerce China.
> 
> North Korea’s development of nuclear weapons is, in part, based on the illusion that it can achieve an equal negotiating position with the US, and thereby force Washington to compromise. But it is entirely possible that a nuclear-armed North Korea could try to twist China’s arm if Beijing were to fail to meet its demands or if the US were to signal goodwill towards it.
> 
> Considering these arguments, China should consider abandoning North Korea. The best way of giving up on Pyongyang is to take the initiative to facilitate North Korea’s unification with South Korea. Bringing about the peninsula’s unification would help undermine the strategic alliance between Washington, Tokyo and Seoul; ease the geopolitical pressure on China from northeast Asia; and be helpful to the resolution of the Taiwan question.
> 
> The next best thing would be to use China’s influence to cultivate a pro-Beijing government in North Korea, to give it security assurances, push it to give up nuclear weapons and start moving towards the development path of a normal country.
> 
> _The writer is deputy editor of Study Times, the journal of the Central Party School of the Communist Party of China_




Cultivating a pro-Beijing government in North Korea is, essentially, saying that Kim Jong-un should be deposed and that is almost the same as Deng Yuwen's preferred option: reunification under Seoul's political direction. I believe this - reunification - is a "standing offer" to Seoul and Washington but it has one firm conditon: American troops must leave Korea and, eventually, must leave the the Asian mainland (which means a small contingent in Thailand must go, too).


----------



## AJFitzpatrick

Well, even if China dumps North Korea there is always Dennis Rodman

http://www.cbc.ca/sports/basketball/nba/story/2013/03/01/sp-hbo-basketball-north-korea-kim-jong-un-dennis-rodman.html


----------



## tomahawk6

USA Today seems to think the recent nuclear test was done to test a nuclear weapon for Iran.Hope not,but if true its a huge problem for the world.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2013/02/27/iran-north-korea-nuclear-bomb/1952273/


----------



## 57Chevy

This could also go into the Iran superthread as it does apply.



			
				tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> USA Today seems to think the recent nuclear test was done to test a nuclear weapon for Iran.Hope not,but if true its a huge problem for the world.



*From the Iran superthread


			
				Old Sweat said:
			
		

> Iran’s ultimate trump card in its current showdown with the international community isn’t merely to close the Strait of Hormuz and choke off the world’s oil supply – it is to secretly test a nuclear device.
> ---
> ---
> ---
> Don’t be surprised to wake up some morning soon to hear Iran has gone ahead with a nuclear test and is suddenly ready to reopen diplomatic talks with its critics.



From News Daily and shared with provisions of The Copyright Act

 Iran nuclear talks show progress, Western diplomat says 
By Adrian Croft, dated 28 Feb

Nuclear talks between Iran and world powers this week were more constructive and positive than in the past, but Iran's willingness to negotiate seriously will not become clear until an April meeting, a senior Western diplomat said on Thursday.

The diplomat was more upbeat about the talks in Kazakhstan than other Western officials have been, suggesting there could be a chance of diplomatic progress in the long standoff over Iran's nuclear activities.

"This was more constructive and more positive than previous meetings because they were really focusing on the proposal on the table," said the diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Iran's Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi struck an upbeat note about the talks, saying they had reached "a turning point" this week and suggesting a breakthrough was within reach.

Article continues at link...

*added


----------



## Colin Parkinson

(Reuters) - North Korea threatened on Tuesday to scrap an armistice that ended the 1950-53 civil war and sever a military "hotline" with the United States if South Korea and Washington pressed on with two-month-long war games.

It was a notable sharpening in the North's often bellicose rhetoric and followed word from U.N. diplomats that the United States and China had struck a tentative deal on a draft U.N. Security Council sanctions resolution that would punish North Korea for its third nuclear test, which it conducted last month.

"We will completely nullify the Korean armistice," the North's KCNA news agency said, quoting the Korean People's Army (KPA) Supreme Command spokesman.

"The war exercise being done by the United States and the puppet south Korea is a systematic act of destruction aimed at the Korean armistice."

The two Koreas remain technically at war since the 1950-53 conflict ended in a truce rather than a peace treaty.

"We will be suspending the activities of the KPA representative office at Panmunjom (truce village) that had been tentatively operated by our army as the negotiating body to establish a peace regime on the Korean peninsula," KCNA quoted the spokesman as saying.

"Related to that, we will be making the decision in parallel to cut off the Panmunjom DPRK-U.S. military hotline."

North Korea, officially called the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), has made much of hotlines with the South and the United States over the years, but has not been known ever to have used them in times of increased tension.

About 200,000 Korean troops and 10,000 U.S. forces are expected to be mobilized for their defensive "Foal Eagle" exercise, under the Combined Forces Command, which began on March 1 and goes on until the end of April. Separate computer-simulated drills called "Key Resolve" start on March 11.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, the U.N. diplomats said they hoped to receive the draft resolution on North Korea at Tuesday's council session. They added that they would like to see the council vote on the resolution by the end of this week.

"I hope to see a draft tomorrow perhaps, but you know it's up to the Americans," a diplomat told Reuters on condition of anonymity. Details of the draft were not immediately available.

The U.N. press office announced separately that Russia, which holds the presidency of the 15-nation Security Council this month, would convene closed-door consultations on North Korea at 11 a.m. EST (1600 GMT) in New York on Tuesday.

CHINA ASKS FOR "PRUDENT" RESPONSE

China's Foreign Ministry declined to confirm that it had reached a deal with the United States.

"We have said many times that China supports an appropriate response from the U.N. Security Council and have also expressed our stance that we oppose North Korea conducting its nuclear test," spokeswoman Hua Chunying told reporters.

"At the same time, we are resolute in believing that the relevant response has to be prudent and moderate, has to prevent an escalation, be conducive to the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula, prevent nuclear proliferation and maintain the peace and stability of Northeast Asia."

Council diplomats have said that they would like to strengthen the provisions in previous sanctions resolutions adopted after North Korea's 2006 and 2009 nuclear tests - above all those related to the inspection and seizure of shipments of banned items and toughening financial restrictions.

The U.N. Security Council strongly condemned North Korea's third nuclear test, on February 12, and vowed to take action against Pyongyang for an act denounced by all major world powers, including ally China.

Pyongyang said at the time that the test was an act of self-defense against "U.S. hostility" and threatened stronger steps if necessary.

In January the Security Council passed a resolution expanding U.N. sanctions against North Korea due to its December rocket launch and warned Pyongyang against further launches or nuclear tests. North Korea responded by threatening a new atomic detonation, which it then carried out the following month.

North Korea's previous nuclear tests prompted the Security Council to impose sanctions that included a ban on the import of nuclear and missile technology, an arms embargo and a ban on luxury goods imports.

There are 17 North Korean entities, including banks and trading companies, on the U.N. blacklist, and nine individuals - all linked to North Korea's nuclear and missile programs. U.N. diplomats say many more entities and individuals could be subject to international asset freezes and travel bans.

Beijing has supported all previous sanctions resolutions against Pyongyang but only after working hard to dilute proposed measures in negotiations on the texts. It has been concerned that tougher sanctions could further weaken the North's economy and prompt refugees to flood into China.

(Additional reporting by Sui-Lee Wee in BEIJING and Jack Kim in SEOUL; Writing by Nick Macfie)


----------



## The Bread Guy

Some of the latest:

UN slaps on more sanctions following N.Korea's latest nuke blast.
North Korea (threatens to pull out of/pulls out of?) 1953 Armistice agreement - sabre-rattling statements via the official news agency attached.

FYI, the "Taeyonphyong Island" the first attached statement says the Dear Leader "feast(ed) his eyes on .... with keen attention" is the one that caught some N.Korean artillery shells in late 2010 (usual Wikipedia caveats apply).


----------



## Shinobi

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/video/2013/mar/09/north-korean-soldiers-american-video

Gotta love the officer's camouflage..


----------



## The Bread Guy

U.N.:  Uh, you can't just say you're walking away from the Armistice, N. Korea....


> The United Nations said Monday that an armistice which halted the 1950-53 Korean War remains valid despite claims by North Korea to have scrapped the accord.
> 
> "Let me just stress here that the armistice agreement is still valid and still in force" as it was approved by the UN General Assembly, UN spokesman Martin Nesirky told reporters. "The terms of the armistice agreement do not allow either side, unilaterally, to free themselves from it."
> 
> North Korean state media had said earlier that the armistice was "completely invalid." That statement came as Pyongyang steps up tensions over UN sanctions against a nuclear bomb test last month and joint South Korean-US military exercises launched Monday.
> 
> UN leader Ban Ki-moon believes that the 60-year-old armistice remains a "critical" document, said Nesirky ....


AFP, 11 Mar 13


----------



## jeffb

Maybe not according to international law but North Korea can always state that they no longer recognize the armistice. In effect, they are saying that the conditions that put the war into a cease fire are no longer in effect as far as they are concerned. To me, that sounds like they are de facto declaring that a state of war once again exists. It's important to note that this was not the government but a newspaper. It is possible that the governmental position on this is that the armistice is no longer valid due to actions of the international community/ ROK. That would be a very different stand then saying that the armistice no longer works for them and they are looking to resume conflict as if it's 1953. 

I suspect that this is just rhetoric and this will not lead anywhere. The DPRK for all its talk would not benefit from a conflict right now. A conspiracy theorist would say that this scare is the US military's attempt to shore up funding in the light of sequestration.  :Tin-Foil-Hat:


----------



## cupper

Apparently they aren't answering the hot line either. This morning's daily test call went unanswered. And it appears that Pyong Yang doesn't have voice mail.


----------



## Rifleman62

Photo from the visit.


----------



## TheHead




----------



## mattbewblind

http://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message2164874/pg1

hope its  not true


----------



## mattbewblind

http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2013/03/13/0200000000AEN20130313000100315.HTML

and this...


----------



## TheHead

mattbewblind said:
			
		

> http://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message2164874/pg1
> 
> hope its  not true



Matt,

   You need to check the source your posting from.  It's a very popular 9/11 troofer style website.   Very popular with Alex Jones fanbois.

*Edited because I butchered the quote.


----------



## The Bread Guy

mattbewblind said:
			
		

> http://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message2164874/pg1
> 
> hope its  not true


I wouldn't lose a ton of sleep over someone posting second-info from someone who may be 1/3 of the world away, posting in forums where this topic is one of the more popular ones.
 :Tin-Foil-Hat:


----------



## GAP

Conspiracy theorists gotta conspire.... :


----------



## mattbewblind

I myself am more worried about them moving there ballistic missiles

"http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2013/03/13/0200000000AEN20130313000100315.HTML"


----------



## CougarKing

New York Times

Excerpt from the article link above:



> A new sense of vulnerability is leading some South Koreans to call for the development of its own nuclear weapons program. Its neighbor Japan could easily build up a nuclear arsenal. Will North Korea’s threats and continued testing cause more proliferation in the region?



While another column on the same NY Times page states that this is a bad idea for South Korea because:



> There is little to be gained by South Korea going nuclear, but there is much to lose. Seoul chose the path of peaceful nuclear electricity over bombs several decades ago. Today, North Korea has a handful of bombs, but its economy is in shambles and it is isolated internationally. In contrast, South Korea is a global industrial powerhouse and strong U.S. trade partner.*Turning to nuclear weapons would isolate Seoul and damage its economy while doing little to make it more secure.*



The role of the US as "South Korea's nuclear deterrent" instead of the Seoul getting their own nukes is alluded to as well.


----------



## mattbewblind

S.M.A. said:
			
		

> New York Times
> 
> Excerpt from the article link above:
> 
> While another column on the same NY Times page states that this is a bad idea for South Korea because:
> 
> The role of the US as "South Korea's nuclear deterrent" instead of the Seoul getting their own nukes is alluded to as well.



Very interesting read holy crap lol


----------



## Fishbone Jones

Time to send in Slim Pickens a.k.a. Major T.J. "King" Kong


----------



## mattbewblind

ain't that the truth @recceguy lol


----------



## The Bread Guy

mattbewblind said:
			
		

> I myself am more worried about them moving there ballistic missiles
> 
> "http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2013/03/13/0200000000AEN20130313000100315.HTML"


On a related note ....


> There is an unconfirmed report that North Korea fired short-range missiles into the ocean Friday, in an apparent response to new sanctions imposed after a nuclear test last month.
> 
> According to the South Korean news agency Yonhap, two missiles were fired into the East Sea by a North Korean military unit.
> 
> They were believed to be short-range ballistic KN-02 missiles ....


More on the KN-2 here

Also, on the cyber-battlefield....


> North Korea has accused the US and its allies of attacks on its internet servers, amid tension on the peninsula.
> 
> KCNA news agency said the "intensive and persistent" attacks coincided with US-South Korea military drills.
> 
> Official sites such as KCNA, Air Koryo and Rodong Sinmun, the party newspaper, are reported to have been inaccessible on some occasions in recent days ....


----------



## cupper

Since the general population doesn't have internet access, I guess the only way they found out was when the higher members of the power structure were cut off from their facebook pages and couldn't get their daily dose of porn. ;D


----------



## daftandbarmy

Hyeonseo Lee: My escape from North Korea Filmed Feb 2013 

As a child growing up in North Korea, Hyeonseo Lee thought her country was “the best on the planet.” It wasn't until the famine of the 90s that she began to wonder. She escaped the country at 14, to begin a life in hiding, as a refugee in China. Hers is a harrowing, personal tale of survival and hope -- and a powerful reminder of those who face constant danger, even when the border is far behind. 

Born in North Korea, Hyeonseo Lee left for China in 1997. Now living in South Korea, she has become an activist for fellow refugees


http://www.ted.com/talks/hyeonseo_lee_my_escape_from_north_korea.html


----------



## 57Chevy

From Sky News and shared with provisions of The Copyright Act
 North Korea Rockets 'Ready To Hit US Bases' 

Kim Jong-Un reportedly tells generals to prepare for an attack on US bases after a show of force by American bombers.

North Korea's leader has told rocket units to be on standby for an attack on US bases, according to state media.

The country's KCNA news agency said Kim Jong-Un had signed off on the order to train sights on American bases in South Korea and the Pacific after a midnight meeting with top generals.

It comes after two American stealth bombers flew over South Korea in a show of force to Pyongyang, following an escalation of rhetoric from the North's young leader.

The two nuclear-capable B-2 planes flew a 13,000-mile round trip from an air base in Missouri, dropping a dummy bomb on a target range in the South.

The planes were taking part in a joint South Korea-US military exercise that has inflamed tensions with Pyongyang, which earlier this month threatened to unleash an "all-out war" backed by nuclear weapons.

"This .... demonstrates the United States' ability to conduct long range, precision strikes quickly and at will," the US military said in a statement.

"The B-2 bomber is an important element of America's enduring and robust extended deterrence capability in the Asia-Pacific region."

KCNA reported that Mr Kim had "judged the time has come to settle accounts with the US imperialists in view of the prevailing situation".

The agency said: "He finally signed the plan on technical preparations of strategic rockets of the KPA, ordering them to be standby for fire so that they may strike any time the US mainland, its military bases in the operational theatres in the Pacific, including Hawaii and Guam, and those in South Korea."

Photo: 
The US uses B-2 bombers as a 'deterrence' measure in the region


----------



## Jammer

It might be an intersting Easter weekend....


----------



## AJFitzpatrick

Pre game warm up ?

http://www.smh.com.au/world/movement-at-nkoreas-missile-sites-source-20130329-2gyqj.html


----------



## GnyHwy

More from CBC

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2013/03/29/north-korea-south-us-threats.html


----------



## CougarKing

Jammer said:
			
		

> It might be an intersting Easter weekend....



Speaking of which...

National Post link



> *North Korea orders rockets on standby after U.S. military drills*
> 
> Russia warned North Korea and the United States Friday to tone down their rhetoric, warning that a flare-up in tensions between could spin out of control.
> 
> *“Unilateral actions are being taken around North Korea which manifest themselves in an escalation of military activity. We can simply see the situation getting out of control, it would spiral down into a vicious circle,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told reporters.*
> 
> “We believe it is necessary for all not to build up military muscle and not to use the current situation as an excuse to solve certain geopolitical tasks in the region through military means,” he said, while calling for the resumption of diplomatic talks.
> 
> Lavrov’s comments came after North Korean leader Kim Jong Un warned Friday that his rocket forces were ready “to settle accounts with the U.S.,” unleashing a new round of bellicose rhetoric after U.S. nuclear-capable B-2 bombers dropped dummy munitions in joint military drills with South Korea.
> 
> Kim’s warning, and the litany of threats that have preceded it, don’t indicate an imminent war. In fact, they’re most likely meant to coerce South Korea into softening its policies, win direct talks and aid from Washington, and strengthen the young leader’s credentials and image at home.
> 
> But the threats from North Korea and rising animosity from the rivals that have followed UN sanctions over Pyongyang’s Feb. 12 nuclear test do raise worries of a misjudgment leading to a clash.
> 
> *Kim “convened an urgent operation meeting” of senior generals just after midnight, signed a rocket preparation plan and ordered his forces on standby to strike the U.S. mainland, South Korea, Guam and Hawaii, state media reported.
> 
> Kim said “the time has come to settle accounts with the U.S. imperialists in view of the prevailing situation,” according to a report by the North’s official Korean Central News Agency.*
> 
> Later Friday at the main square in Pyongyang, tens of thousands of North Koreans turned out for a 90-minute mass rally in support of Kim’s call to arms. Men and women, many of them in olive drab uniforms, stood in arrow-straight lines, fists raised as they chanted, “Death to the U.S. imperialists.” Placards in the plaza bore harsh words for South Korea as well, including, “Let’s rip the puppet traitors to death!”
> 
> Small North Korean warships, including patrol boats, conducted maritime drills off both coasts of North Korea near the border with South Korea on Thursday, South Korean Defence Ministry spokesman Kim Min-seok said in a briefing Friday. He didn’t provide more details.
> 
> The spokesman said that South Korea’s military was mindful of the possibility that North Korean drills could lead to an actual provocation. He also said that the South Korean and U.S. militaries are watching closely for any signs of missile launch preparations in North Korea. He didn’t elaborate.
> 
> North Korea, which says it considers the U.S.-South Korean military drills preparations for invasion, has pumped out a string of threats in state media. In the most dramatic case, Pyongyang made the highly improbable vow to nuke the United States.
> 
> *On Friday, state media released a photo of Kim and his senior generals huddled in front of a map showing routes for envisioned strikes against cities on both American coasts. The map bore the title “U.S. Mainland Strike Plan.”
> 
> Portions of the photo appeared to be manipulated, though an intriguing detail — a bandage on Kim’s left arm — appeared to be real.
> 
> Experts believe the country is years away from developing nuclear-tipped missiles that could strike the United States. Many say they’ve also seen no evidence that Pyongyang has long-range missiles that can hit the U.S. mainland.*
> 
> Still, there are fears of a localized conflict, such as a naval skirmish in disputed Yellow Sea waters. Such naval clashes have happened three times since 1999. There’s also the danger that such a clash could escalate. Seoul has vowed to hit back hard the next time it is attacked.
> 
> *North Korea’s threats are also worrisome because of its arsenal of short- and mid-range missiles that can hit targets in South Korea and Japan. Seoul is only a short drive from the heavily armed border separating the Koreas.
> 
> “The North can fire 500,000 rounds of artillery on Seoul in the first hour of a conflict,” analysts Victor Cha and David Kang wrote recently for Foreign Policy magazine. They also note that North Korea has a history of testing new South Korean leaders; President Park Geun-hye took office late last month. “Since 1992, the North has welcomed these five new leaders by disturbing the peace,” they wrote.*
> 
> U.S. Defence Secretary Chuck Hagel told reporters Thursday that the decision to send B-2 bombers to join the military drills was part of normal exercises and not intended to provoke North Korea. Hagel acknowledged, however, that North Korea’s belligerent tones and actions in recent weeks have ratcheted up the danger in the region, “and we have to understand that reality.”
> 
> U.S. Forces Korea said the B-2 stealth bombers flew from a U.S. air base in Missouri and dropped dummy munitions on an uninhabited South Korean island range on Thursday before returning home. The Pentagon said this was the first time a B-2 had dropped dummy munitions over South Korea, and later added that it was unclear whether there had ever been any B-2 flights there at all.
> 
> The statement follows an earlier U.S. announcement that nuclear-capable B-52 bombers participated in the joint military drills.
> 
> Pyongyang uses the U.S. nuclear arsenal as a justification for its own push for nuclear weapons. It claims that U.S. nuclear firepower is a threat to its existence and provocation.
> 
> *The two Missouri-based stealth bombers used in the South Korean drills probably weren’t nuclear-armed, but experts say they’re the aircraft that would likely be sent if Washington ever decides it does want to drop nuclear bombs on North Korea. The United States doesn’t forward-deploy nuclear weapons in South Korea, Okinawa, Guam or Hawaii.*
> 
> “The B-2 can reach targets from North Korea to Iran directly from Missouri, which is what the United States did in the early stages of operations against Yugoslavia, Afghanistan and Iraq,” analyst Jeffrey Lewis wrote in a post on ArmsControlWonk.com earlier this month.
> 
> With files from wires. AP writers Jon Chol Jin in Pyongyang, North Korea, Sam Kim in Seoul and Eric Talmadge in Tokyo contributed to this report.





> *Glimpse of North Korea's plan of attack on US?*
> 
> link


----------



## CougarKing

> *North Korea declares "state of war" with the South and pledges to first "dissolve America"*
> 
> UK's Mirror link
> 
> other sources:
> AFP link
> 
> Telegraph link
> 
> North Korea today claimed it was in a "state of war" with its neighbours to the South - and threatened to "dissolve" the United States.
> 
> Early this morning, the country's state news service said it "will not limit (itself) to limited warfare but to all-out war and nuclear war."
> 
> *The report included a direct threat to America, warning: "We will first target and dissolve mainland United States, Hawaii and Guam, and United States military based in South Korea.
> 
> "And the (South Korean presidential office) will be burned to the ground."*
> 
> The two Koreas have technically been at war since 1953, when their conflict ended with an armistice but not a peace treaty.
> 
> Earlier leader Kim Jong-un said he was ready “to settle accounts with the US” after the Pentagon sent Stealth nuclear bombers to drop dummy munitions on a South Korean island range.
> 
> *His outburst was made in a meeting with his generals, with pictures showed him signing the order with maps in the background marked “US mainland strike plan”.
> 
> Missile tracks on them appeared to lead to Hawaii, Washington DC, Los Angeles and Austin, Texas. *
> 
> US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said Washington would not be cowed and stood ready to respond to “any ­eventuality”.
> .
> 
> China – North Korea’s main ally – reiterated its calls for restraint.
> 
> Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov said he was increasingly concerned about a situation that could “get out of control”.
> 
> North Korean leaders are furious about international sanctions imposed after its third nuclear weapons trial in February.
> 
> The secretive Stalinist state sees the US as a direct threat and claims America’s once-a-year military exercises with the South are a preparation for war.
> 
> It is also using Washington’s nuclear arsenal to justify its push for nuclear-tipped missiles that can strike the US. Experts believe this is years away.
> 
> *Analysts say it is unlikely North Korean rockets could even hit America but they could target South Korea.*
> 
> The North has torn up the 1953 armistice that ended its conflict with the South.
> 
> 
> *But North Korea has a long history of making threats without taking action.
> 
> Some believe its underlying aim is to distract its people from appalling conditions at home.
> 
> A famine is feared to have killed up to 10,000 in Hwanghae, with cases reported of parents eating their own children.*
> 
> Kim, 30, is the third generation of his family to rule North Korea’s 24 million people.
> 
> *Some believe the chubby figurehead – who took over when his father died in 2011 – is a puppet of the hard-line military.*


----------



## a_majoor

Funny, they stamped their feet and threw a tantrum in the 1990's and got plenty of goodies from Uncle Sam. Why isn't it working now?

This must be frustrating the hell out of the leadership of the DPRK, hence the surreal ratcheting up of rhetoric.


----------



## The_Falcon

Some part of me thinks, that the dear leaders Generals are stringing him along for some kind of Operation Valkeryie ride or something.  Basically turn up the rhetoric to the point were the US is about to obliterate them, and then overthrow him for being too  reckless.   ;D


----------



## dimsum

Isn't it really "reaffirming" vice "declaring" the state of war, since the Korean War really never ended?  I mean, technically speaking, the two countries have been only on a "hiatus" since 1953.


----------



## muskrat89

> Missile tracks on them appeared to lead to Hawaii, Washington DC, Los Angeles and Austin, Texas.




What's the strategic value of Austin? They don't like country music and bluegrass?


----------



## Scott

muskrat89 said:
			
		

> What's the strategic value of Austin? They don't like country music and bluegrass?



Kim Jong whatever has Lance Armstrong bobbleheads and is pissed that he was doping.

Too obvious?


----------



## KaptKain

Kim Jung whatever is a fool. His people think of him as a descendent of god(his grand daddy).
I just hate that this kid (and future gens) of the Kims will continue to get away with this rheteric(sp?). I was shocked at the non-action taken in 2010 when the north shelled the south islands. As well as the sinking of the souths Naval ship by the north. If it wasnt for Africa and the Middle East I am sure the warmongers in US and NATO would be wanting to take care of the Kim's. We need to do it soon before theres a REAL arms race in the Asia sector....or another wingnut gets control of a country and tries the same BS again.


----------



## GnyHwy

.


----------



## cupper

I was going to say it was all bluster, and you only need to worry if they shut down the factories in the special economic zone.

Well, according to today's report, we may need to ratchet up the anxiety level a touch.

*North Korea warns South Korea of ‘state of war,’ threatens to close joint factory park*

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/north-korea-says-it-is-in-a-state-of-war-with-south-korea-in-latest-threat-against-rival/2013/03/29/84516940-98db-11e2-b5b4-b63027b499de_story.html?hpid=z1



> SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea warned Seoul on Saturday that the Korean Peninsula had entered “a state of war” and threatened to shut down a border factory complex that’s the last major symbol of inter-Korean cooperation.
> 
> ...
> 
> Hours after the statement, Pyongyang threatened to shut down the jointly run Kaesong industrial park, expressing anger over media reports suggesting the complex remained open because it was a source of hard currency for the impoverished North.
> 
> “If the puppet group seeks to tarnish the image of the DPRK even a bit, while speaking of the zone whose operation has been barely maintained, we will shut down the zone without mercy,” an identified spokesman for the North’s office controlling Kaesong said in comments carried by KCNA.
> 
> South Korea’s Unification Ministry responded by calling the North Korean threat “unhelpful” to the countries’ already frayed relations and vowed to ensure the safety of hundreds of South Korean managers who cross the border to their jobs in Kaesong. It did not elaborate.


----------



## Old Sweat

muskrat89 said:
			
		

> What's the strategic value of Austin? They don't like country music and bluegrass?



They may have hauled out an old map. Crawford, ranch of Bush 43 who lives in Dallas, is near the Texas capital.


----------



## Jarnhamar

North Korea should man up and shoot a missile at the US or STFU already.

The US should turn off NKs internet access and let the citizens do that they're bound to do with no starcraft or facebook.


----------



## Robert0288

South Korea has the facebooks and starcraft.  North Korea literally has just gotten it's first cell tower a couple of months ago.  I don't know what the point of these threats are.  In the past North Korea threatened, then relented in order to get things like food and oil.  Now there just doesn't seem to be any sense to what's going on.  Unless it's part of a larger internal power struggle within North Korea.


----------



## Nemo888

The threats all all about getting attention. The North has have roughly 10,000 artillery pieces pointed at Seoul. 80%+ of South Korea's industry will be destroyed within hours of a conflict starting. Not even the US can attack 10,000 targets at once. Little Kim has nothing to lose.  South Korea's economic destruction is guaranteed without nukes or ballistic missiles.





The map says,  'US Mainland Strike Plan'. That is so awesome.


----------



## Jarnhamar

You know an awful lot about North Korea, "Robert" from Ottawa..

Nemo, stop being a defeatist.


----------



## George Wallace

Nemo888 said:
			
		

> The map says,  'US Mainland Strike Plan'. That is so awesome.



So?  The North Koreans Wargame as well.  Is this something new?  Duh!


----------



## Robert0288

ObedientiaZelum said:
			
		

> You know an awful lot about North Korea, "Robert" from Ottawa..
> 
> Nemo, stop being a defeatist.



Denis Rodman was in North Korea at the beginning of march posting tweets during a basketball game from his phone over their 3G network in Pyongyang, by Korean news they where pleased it was one of their first.  

Also creating external problems is often used to unify a country or a group.  Some of the other options include Kim Jong Un is no longer a rational actor.  Or we really have no idea what the hell is going on in a nation that has millions of troops and tens of thousands of arty pieces ready to level all of South Korea.  I'm personally hoping for a warped reason rather than insanity.

And I just have way too much spare time on my hands.


----------



## a_majoor

Time to re-read this again: 

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2006/10/when-north-korea-falls/305228/


----------



## Jungle

Anybody else see the resemblance between this:



			
				Nemo888 said:
			
		

>



And that:






Now it seems like the NK Military has a uniformity problem; the generals are wearing 2 different styles of caps. Personally, I would prefer the goofy one standing behind Kim Shlong Swill to be the standard (for NK Generals).


----------



## The_Falcon

You will also notice that have have been "awarded"  the same ribbons multiple times.  The guy in the circle has one particular ribbon 10x.


----------



## CougarKing

Jungle said:
			
		

> Now it seems like the NK Military has a uniformity problem; the generals are wearing 2 different styles of caps. Personally, I would prefer the goofy one standing behind Kim Shlong Swill to be the standard (for NK Generals).



Jungle,

Sorry for the tangent, but don't a lot of militaries have more than 2 types of "cover" or headgear? For example, the US military has overseas caps and garrison caps (which I'll leave to Tomahawk6 to confirm). And doesn't our own RCAF have the forage caps for wearing with dress uniforms and the blue berets for wearing with CADPAT? Please correct me if I'm wrong about the RCAF question.

And we now return you to our regular scheduled "North Korea programming."   ;D

Kim Jong Un spoof


----------



## cupper

Hatchet Man said:
			
		

> You will also notice that have have been "awarded"  the same ribbons multiple times.  The guy in the circle has one particular ribbon 10x.



It's the most coveted "You survived the purge of the General Officer Corps" with the "Supreme Leader Butt Kissing" bar.


----------



## Jungle

S.M.A. said:
			
		

> Jungle,
> 
> Sorry for the tangent...



Huuh... I was trying to be funny, guess I failed again. I was trying to link this with all the pomp and pageantry threads we have on here... maybe a smilie would have helped... but nevermind.

I wonder if they have decent combat boots ??  >


----------



## Edward Campbell

My guess hope is that the phone lines are burning between Beijing and Pyongyang. I guess hope that many of the DPRK's most powerful generals and officials are in the pay of the Chinese government - I hope that enough of them are Chinese puppets to prevent Kim and his (few?) loyalists from doing anything really stupid.

I know I'm repeating myself, but:

1. While it is in China's interest to have the DPRK keep Japan and the USA off balance; and

2. While it is also in China's interests to have the DPRK distract attention away from China's other actions in the region; 

3. It is most certainly not in China's interests to have a war that involves South Korea. South Korea is one of China's major trading partners; it provides technology and management to China; it matters far, Far, FAR more than North Korea ever will; and

4. The Chinese want a, peaceful, prosperous and unified Korea, under a Seoul based democracy, that is friendly towards China and is devoid of US troops.


----------



## larry Strong

Hatchet Man said:
			
		

> You will also notice that have have been "awarded"  the same ribbons multiple times.  The guy in the circle has one particular ribbon 10x.



This might explain it......



Larry


----------



## Edward Campbell

And don't forget their weapons of mass distraction:


----------



## Edward Campbell

Against whom the Chinese can deploy these:







Hmmmm ... choices, choices.  :nod:


----------



## GAP

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> Against whom the Chinese can deploy these:
> 
> Hmmmm ... choices, choices.  :nod:



Like good wine & food......you'll just have to try both for comparison sake, if nothing else....... ;D


----------



## George Wallace

Larry Strong said:
			
		

> This might explain it......
> 
> 
> 
> Larry



WOW!....Run out of tunic space, so they have to mount medals/awards on their pant legs.  Interesting concept.  Can't see it being practical and catching on over here though.


----------



## Journeyman

George Wallace said:
			
		

> Can't see it being practical and catching on over here though.


Practical? No.  Catching on?  Hard to say; the Directorate of Gongs and Badges has been pretty busy over the past 5-6 years.  

_Hopefully_, we should be about an "1812/1914-17 warrior powerpoint badge" away from assuaging the penis-envy felt by the non-deploying Staff Officers in the face of their US counterparts, that's driving this bling-fest.


----------



## Scoobie Newbie

Journeyman said:
			
		

> _Hopefully_, we should be about an "1812/1914-17 warrior powerpoint badge" away from assuaging the penis-envy felt by the non-deploying Staff Officers in the face of their US counterparts, *that's driving this bling-fest.*



Source?


----------



## Fishbone Jones

Perhaps they think that by acting like the Duchy of Grand Fenwick, in the Mouse That Roared, http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0053084/ they can stop letting their people starve from grass soup.

The hillbillies of Asia :facepalm:


----------



## Fishbone Jones

Larry Strong said:
			
		

> This might explain it......
> 
> 
> 
> Larry



Their very own LoF!  ;D


----------



## Journeyman

Journeyman said:
			
		

> ..... that's driving this bling-fest.1
> 
> 
> 
> Source?
Click to expand...


How would you explain 1812 Pins? Bieber medal? The Peacekeeping Service Medal (awarded on the basis of already having a tour medal)?  I assure you that these good idea faeries are in NDHQ, _not_ the field force.  I can think of several other more worthy places to expend the defence budget.



1.  Opinion, Journeyman, 31 Mar 2013


----------



## Scoobie Newbie

I was just hoping you had info to expand on, that's all.  :bunny:


----------



## Old Sweat

recceguy said:
			
		

> Perhaps they think that by acting like the Duchy of Grand Fenwick, in the Mouse That Roared, http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0053084/ they can stop letting their people starve from grass soup.
> 
> The hillbillies of Asia :facepalm:



It also may be a face saving gesture. See, they're all scared of us.


----------



## CougarKing

National Post link



> *North Korea vows to double down on nuclear arsenal one day after declaring it’s in a ‘state of war’*
> 
> SEOUL, South Korea — *A top North Korean decision-making body issued a pointed warning Sunday, saying that nuclear weapons are “the nation’s life” and will not be traded even for “billions of dollars.”
> 
> The comments came in a statement released after North Korean leader Kim Jong-un presided over the plenary meeting of the central committee of the ruling Workers’ Party.* The meeting, which set a “new strategic line” calling for building both a stronger economy and nuclear arsenal, comes amid a series of near-daily threats from Pyongyang in recent weeks, including a vow to launch nuclear strikes on the United States and a warning Saturday that the Korean Peninsula was in a “state of war.”
> 
> Pyongyang is angry over annual U.S.-South Korean military drills and a new round of U.N. sanctions that followed its Feb. 12 nuclear test, the country’s third. Analysts see a full-scale North Korean attack as unlikely and say the threats are more likely efforts to provoke softer policies toward Pyongyang from a new government in Seoul, to win diplomatic talks with Washington that could get the North more aid, and to solidify the young North Korean leader’s image and military credentials at home.
> 
> North Korea made reference to those outside views in the statement it released through the official Korean Central News Agency following the plenary meeting.
> 
> *North Korea’s nuclear weapons are a “treasure” not to be traded for “billions of dollars,” the statement said. They “are neither a political bargaining chip nor a thing for economic dealings to be presented to the place of dialogue or be put on the table of negotiations aimed at forcing [Pyongyang] to disarm itself,” it said.
> 
> North Korea’s “nuclear armed forces represent the nation’s life, which can never be abandoned as long as the imperialists and nuclear threats exist on earth,” the statement said.*
> 
> North Korea has called the U.S. nuclear arsenal a threat to its existence since the 1950-53 Korean War, which ended in a truce, not a peace treaty, leaving the peninsula still technically at war. Pyongyang justifies its own nuclear pursuit in large part on that perceived U.S. threat.
> 
> While analysts call North Korea’s threats largely brinkmanship, there is some fear that a localized skirmish might escalate. Seoul has vowed to respond harshly should North Korea provoke its military. Naval skirmishes in disputed Yellow Sea waters off the Korean coast have led to bloody battles several times over the years. Attacks blamed on Pyongyang in 2010 killed 50 South Koreans.
> 
> *The plenary statement also called for strengthening the moribund economy, which Kim has put an emphasis on in his public statements since taking power after the death of his father, Kim Jong Il, in late 2011. The United Nations says two-thirds of the country’s 24 million people face regular food shortages.
> 
> The statement called for diversified foreign trade and investment, and a focus on agriculture, light industry and a “self-reliant nuclear power industry,” including a light water reactor. There was also a call for “the development of space science and technology,” including more satellite launches. North Korea put a satellite into orbit on a long-range rocket in December. The United Nations called the launch a cover for a banned test of ballistic missile technology and increased sanctions on the North.*
> 
> The central committee is a top decision-making body of the North’s ruling Workers’ Party. The committee is tasked with organizing and guiding the party’s major projects, and its plenary meeting is usually convened once a year, according to Seoul’s Unification Ministry. South Korean media said the last plenary session was held in 2010 and that this was the first time Kim Jong Un had presided over the meeting.
> 
> The White House says the United States is taking North Korea’s threats seriously, but has also noted Pyongyang’s history of “bellicose rhetoric.”
> 
> On Thursday, U.S. military officials revealed that two B-2 stealth bombers dropped dummy munitions on an uninhabited South Korean island as part of annual defense drills that Pyongyang sees as rehearsals for invasion. Hours later, Kim ordered his generals to put rockets on standby and threatened to strike American targets if provoked.


----------



## 57Chevy

Larry Strong said:
			
		

> This might explain it......Larry



Those are all hatbadges from the units they served in.    with a few medals thrown in there.

TOP COLLECTORS  ;D


----------



## Bird_Gunner45

There's some outstanding North Korean articles on the chive this morning for anyone interested.


----------



## GnyHwy

57Chevy said:
			
		

> Those are all hatbadges from the units they served in.    with a few medals thrown in there.
> 
> TOP COLLECTORS  ;D



No, I think that is their layaway plan for body amour.  Those guys have been around quite some time so they have had many installments.


----------



## Old Sweat

The North Koreans could look at the latest approach to medals and ribbons taken by the US Army, at least according to the Duffle Blog.

http://www.duffelblog.com/2013/04/us-army-to-cut-ribbons-medals-by-50-percent-in-cost-cutting-measure/?utm_source=The+Duffel+Blog+Email+Newsletter&utm_campaign=2f18dd5baa-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email

 :irony:


----------



## CougarKing

Raptors deploy to South Korea for EX FOAL EAGLE amid heightening tensions:

Reuters link



> *U.S. F-22 stealth jets join South Korea drills amid saber-rattling  *
> 
> By Reuters
> 
> Published: April 1, 2013
> 
> *The United States sent F-22 stealth fighter jets to South Korea on Sunday to join military drills aimed at underscoring the U.S. commitment to defend Seoul in the face of an intensifying campaign of threats from North Korea.
> 
> The advanced, radar-evading F-22 Raptors were deployed to Osan Air Base, the main U.S. Air Force base in South Korea, from Japan to support ongoing bilateral exercises, the U.S. military command in South Korea said in a statement that urged North Korea to restrain itself.*
> 
> "(North Korea) will achieve nothing by threats or provocations, which will only further isolate North Korea and undermine international efforts to ensure peace and stability in Northeast Asia," the statement said.
> 
> Saber-rattling on the Korean peninsula drew a plea for peace from Pope Francis, who in his first Easter Sunday address called for a diplomatic solution to the crisis on the Korean peninsula.
> 
> "Peace in Asia, above all on the Korean peninsula: may disagreements be overcome and a renewed spirit of reconciliation grow," he said, speaking in Italian.
> 
> Tensions have been high since the North's young new leader, Kim Jong-un, ordered a nuclear weapons test in February, breaching U.N. sanctions and ignoring warnings from North Korea's closest ally, China, not to do so.
> 
> That test, North Korea's third since 2006, drew further U.N. and bilateral sanctions designed to pressure the impoverished North to stop its nuclear weapons program. Pyongyang responded to the new steps by ratcheting up warnings and threats of war.
> 
> North Korea said on Saturday it was entering a "state of war" with South Korea, but Seoul and its ally the United States played down the statement from the official KCNA news agency as the latest in a stream of tough talk from Pyongyang.
> 
> In a rare U.S. show of force aimed at North Korea, the United States on Thursday flew two radar-evading B-2 Spirit bombers on practice runs over South Korea.
> 
> *On Friday, Kim signed an order putting the North's missile units on standby to attack U.S. military bases in South Korea and the Pacific, after the stealth bomber flights.
> 
> The F-22 jets will take part in the annual U.S.-South Korea Foal Eagle military drills, which are designed to sharpen the allies' readiness to defend the South from an attack by North Korea, the U.S. military said.
> 
> The U.S. military did not say how many of the planes were flown to South Korea from Kadena Air Base in Okinawa. The statement described Sunday's deployment as part of routine shifts of air power among bases in the Western Pacific that U.S. forces have been conducting since 2004.*
> 
> Japan's Kyodo news agency quoted the top Japanese government spokesman, Yoshihide Suga, as condemning Pyongyang for "aggressive provocation" after Kim's ruling party newspaper, the Rodong Sinmun, identified U.S. military bases in Japan as targets for attack.
> 
> The two Koreas have been technically in a state of war since a truce that ended their 1950-53 conflict. Despite its threats, few people see any indication Pyongyang will risk a near-certain defeat by re-starting full-scale war


----------



## Pandora114

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VJNBfBr-OGU&playnext=1&list=PLCF26FD21646C4B05&feature=results_video

Every Day They're Rattlin.

Sorry..I had to.


----------



## Eye In The Sky

S.M.A. said:
			
		

> And doesn't our own RCAF have the forage caps for wearing with dress uniforms and the blue berets for wearing with CADPAT? Please correct me if I'm wrong about the RCAF question.



Considered yourself corrected.


----------



## CougarKing

> *China mobilizing troops, jets near Korea*
> Washington Times link
> <snipped>
> 
> 
> Reports from the region reveal the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) recently increased its military posture in response to the heightened tensions, specifically North Korea’s declaration of a “state of war” and threats to conduct missile attacks against the United States and South Korea.
> 
> According to the officials, the PLA has stepped up military mobilization in the border region with North Korea since mid-March, including troop movements and warplane activity.


----------



## The_Falcon

Interesting....maybe China will layeth the smacketh down on N. Korea.


----------



## Pandora114

China needs to muzzle it's dog.


----------



## CougarKing

National Post link



> *U.S. sends in $900M anti-missile radar array as North Korea vows to fire up nuclear reactor*
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> As the rhetoric surrounding North Korea heats up, the United States has dispatched two key pieces of anti-missile hardware to the Korean peninsula.
> 
> *The U.S. is sending in the USS John S. McCain, a guided-missile destroyer, to operate off the southwest coast of the Korean peninsula, a defence official who requested anonymity said on Monday. Meanwhile, a sea-based radar platform known as SBX has also been mobilized for what the official described as routine operations.*
> 
> The moves aren’t related to the military exercises under way in the region, the official said by e-mail.
> 
> *The SBX and the John S. McCain’s Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense System are both specifically designed to locate and shoot down incoming ballistic missiles using methods similar to ones used by the Iron Dome system used in Israel.
> 
> It would be used to shoot down long-range Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles before they could boost into the upper atmosphere.
> 
> The SBX is a radar array mounted on a drilling rig and is a more advanced version of the same system, offering more accurate targeting data than the McCain, though it lacks the warships self defences.
> 
> The radar system cost almost $900-million and is ostensibly based out of Alaska, though the installation, with a crew of 75, has never actually gone to port there.*
> 
> These moves came just before North Korea vowed Tuesday to restart a nuclear reactor that can make one bomb’s worth of plutonium a year, escalating tensions already raised by near daily warlike threats against the United States and South Korea.
> 
> The North’s plutonium reactor was shut down in 2007 as part of international nuclear disarmament talks that have since stalled. The declaration of a resumption of plutonium production — the most common fuel in nuclear weapons — and other facilities at the main Nyongbyon nuclear complex will boost fears in Washington and among its allies about North Korea’s timetable for building a nuclear-tipped missile that can reach the United States, technology it is not currently believed to have.
> 
> A spokesman for the North’s General Department of Atomic Energy said that scientists will begin work at a uranium enrichment plant and a graphite-moderated 5 megawatt reactor, which generates spent fuel rods laced with plutonium and is the core of the Nyongbyon nuclear complex.
> 
> The unidentified spokesman said the measure is part of efforts to resolve the country’s acute electricity shortage but also for “bolstering up the nuclear armed force both in quality and quantity,” according to a statement carried by the official Korean Central News Agency.
> 
> Pyongyang conducted its third nuclear test in February, prompting a new round of UN sanctions that have infuriated its leaders and led to a torrent of threatening rhetoric.
> 
> The United States has sent nuclear-capable bombers and stealth jets to participate in annual South Korean-U.S. military drills that the allies call routine but that Pyongyang claims are invasion preparations.
> 
> North Korea has declared that the armistice ending the Korean War in 1953 is void, threatened to launch nuclear and rocket strikes on the United States and, most recently, declared at a high-level government assembly that making nuclear arms and a stronger economy are the nation’s top priorities.
> 
> The threats are seen as efforts to force policy changes in Seoul and Washington and increase domestic loyalty to young North Korean leader Kim Jong Un by portraying him as a powerful military force.
> 
> “North Korea is keeping tension and crisis alive to raise stakes ahead of possible future talks with the United States,” said Hwang Jihwan, a North Korea expert at the University of Seoul. “North Korea is asking the world, ‘What are you going to do about this?’”
> 
> North Korea added the 5-megawatt, graphite-moderated reactor to its nuclear complex at Nyongbyon in 1986 after seven years of construction. The country began building a 50-megawatt and a 200 megawatt reactor in 1984, but construction was suspended under a 1994 nuclear deal with Washington.
> 
> North Korea says the facility is aimed at generating electricity. It takes about 8,000 fuel rods to run the reactor. Reprocessing the spent fuel rods after a year of reactor operation could yield about 7 kilograms of plutonium – enough to make at least one nuclear bomb, experts say.
> 
> Nuclear bombs can be produced with highly enriched uranium or with plutonium. North Korea is believed to have exploded plutonium devices in its first two nuclear tests, in 2006 and 2009.
> 
> In 2010, the North unveiled a long-suspected uranium enrichment program, which would give it another potential route to make bomb fuel. Uranium worries outsiders because the technology needed to make highly enriched uranium bombs is much easier to hide than huge plutonium facilities.
> 
> But experts say plutonium is considered better for building small warheads, which North Korea needs if it is going to put them on missiles. Analysts say they don’t believe North Korea currently has mastered such miniaturization technology.
> 
> *Scientist and nuclear expert Siegfried Hecker has estimated that Pyongyang has 24 to 42 kilograms of plutonium – enough for perhaps four to eight rudimentary bombs similar to the plutonium weapon used on Nagasaki in World War II.*
> 
> It’s not known whether the North’s latest atomic test, in February, used highly enriched uranium or plutonium stockpiles. South Korea and other countries have so far failed to detect radioactive elements that may have leaked from the test and which could determine what kind of device was used.
> 
> “North Korea is dispelling any remaining uncertainties about its intention for developing nuclear arms. It is making it clear that its nuclear arms program is the essence of its national security and that it’s not negotiable,” said Sohn Yong-woo, a professor at the Graduate School of National Defense Strategy of Hannam University in South Korea.
> 
> “North Korea is more confident about itself than ever after the third nuclear test,” Sohn said. “That confidence is driving the leadership toward more aggressive nuclear development.”


----------



## tomahawk6

The PRC has bolstered its forces along the NORK frontier. I have watched North Korea do this act over the years.Increase the tension and then get food concessions from the US/ROK.The only thing that concerns me is the potential for one side overreaching.


----------



## GAP

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> The PRC has bolstered its forces along the NORK frontier. I have watched North Korea do this act over the years.Increase the tension and then get food concessions from the US/ROK.The only thing that concerns me is the potential for one side overreaching.



I don't see that scenario playing out this time......


----------



## GeorgeD

GAP said:
			
		

> I don't see that scenario playing out this time......



Isn't that the problem though? North Korea might keep pushing until they get their aid or they push too far seeing as that is all they know and that is all they have done over the last couple of decades.


----------



## BrendenDias

So far it's kind of been "all talk" with North Korean threats of attack and nuclear launches. However that does not mean nations shouldn't take it seriously. K.J. Un is obviously an idiot, or he has some sort of ultra-plan up his sleeve... I believe in the first one myself. I have heard so much about the range of NK's missiles and nukes, but I hear they can reach the US mainland, and also hear that they would just fizzle off into the Pacific Ocean. Even if they do launch missiles off, US/SKorea/Japan would likely be able to shoot them down.. however KJ Un seems to be all talk thus far. Let's see if he's ready to back up what he says that North Korea will do.
If they do launch them off, and they hit somewhere... miraculously, the US wouldn't attempt another nuclear strike such as the ones in WWII, obviously killing oppressed civilians is not the answer. They would need to strike at the NKorean nuclear sites, and move in to kill KJ Un.
(I had a discussion with someone in my biology class today... hah, more interesting than bio I guess... but he was saying the US would nuke NKorea and attempt a cover up, which I called BS on hah)...

Also, KJ Un might just have a "Tsar Nicholas of Russia" situation on his hands in the future. One where his own soldiers are starved and turn on him... but that's just speculation.
 :nod:
 :2c:


----------



## AliG

cupper said:
			
		

> I was going to say it was all bluster, and *you only need to worry if they shut down the factories in the special economic zone*.
> 
> Well, according to today's report, we may need to ratchet up the anxiety level a touch.
> 
> *North Korea warns South Korea of ‘state of war,’ threatens to close joint factory park*
> 
> http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/north-korea-says-it-is-in-a-state-of-war-with-south-korea-in-latest-threat-against-rival/2013/03/29/84516940-98db-11e2-b5b4-b63027b499de_story.html?hpid=z1



http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/03/us-korea-north-idUSBRE93002620130403

Somebody has to blink...


----------



## GeorgeD

The potential threat might be that North Korea backs itself in to a corner where they have to act on their threats. North Korea has been taught over the last couple of decades that a threat of violence will get them aid, if it does not work committing an act of aggression will usually do the trick until now that is...after the last couple of actions I can't see them making any more threats without some action, I mean there is only so many times you can say "I'll kill you" before you have to do it or your threats will lose all value. 



Maybe it is me being naive or hopeful but the threats and escalations happening in the region might give the US and South Korea just the excuse to gather enough forces to take out most if not all of North Korea's artillery pieces aimed at Seoul so that this problem can be solved once and for all.


----------



## BrendenDias

I agree with you, but do you think Kim J. Un really cares about aid? If the country received aid for its people, he probably would take all the supplies/food, etc. and perhaps feed his armies (and himself of course).  :facepalm:

It could relate to when say the UN or Red Cross sends supply drops to troubled African areas.. they let the food go, and get out of there while poor civilians attempt to scavenge what is there, then the military rolls in and claims it all for the state...


----------



## Robert0288

> North Korea pressures South by halting entry to industrial zone
> 
> PAJU, South Korea (Reuters) - North Korea on Wednesday closed access to a joint factory zone that earns $2 billion a year in trade for the impoverished state but will allow hundreds of South Koreans to return home, officials said, allaying fears they could have been held hostage.
> 
> Factories in the Kaesong Industrial Park were still believed to be operating, but North Korea's decision to block entry is a further sign of the growing tensions on the Korean peninsula. On Tuesday, Pyongyang said it would restart a mothballed nuclear reactor.
> 
> The industrial park has not formally stopped operations since it was inaugurated in August 2000 as part of efforts to improve ties between the two Koreas. It houses 123 companies and is staffed by 50,000 North Koreans and hundreds of South Korean business owners and managers.
> 
> More than 800 South Koreans had stayed overnight in the park, just north of the world's most heavily armed border. South Korea's Unification Ministry demanded the park be opened.
> 
> The ministry later said 46 workers would return by 5 p.m. with the remainder staying there, South Korea's Yonhap news agency reported.
> 
> North Korea has threatened a nuclear strike on the United States and missile attacks on its Pacific bases after fresh U.N. sanctions were imposed for the country's third nuclear weapons test in February. Pyongyang has also said it was in a state of war with South Korea.



Excerpt from: http://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/idCABRE93002620130403?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0


----------



## Edward Campbell

I think we need to look at _*vital* interests_ in and around Korea. My _quesstimate_ is:

North Korea: a paranoid, isolated, "hermit kingdom" which feels the need to make a bold stroke to try to survive - see a useful summary in this article from today's _Globe and Mail_;

Russia: formerly a major player, not mostly on the sidelines but still capable of making mischief - and more than willing to do so because it sees _gains_, of sorts, in discomfiting either or both of the USA and China;

South Korea: a worried victim - worried about the potential for insanity in North Korea and worried about the resolve of the USA and about the intentions of China;

Japan: a near mirror of South Korea;

China: an exasperated rich uncle to North Korea. It wants and is willing to help pay for 1) a reunified and prosperous Korea, under Seoul's leadership, that is friendly to China, and 2) a withdrawal of US military forces from the Korean peninsula. But, for the time being, it is content to see as high state of tension *provided there is no danger of war*. Despite media reports there is no official word that the Chinese are building up forces near North Korea and there are plenty of reasons to think that they would not do that - fear of triggering further DPRK madness being just one; and

USA: a reluctant _peacekeeper_. There is every reason to fear a sudden, massive North Korean assault that would inflict massive casualties on forward deployed US and ROK ground forces and do massive damage to Seoul and vicinity. There is, equally, every reason to believe that the USA and ROK could and would blunt and, eventually, push back the North Koreans - but not push them back so far as to make China nervous. In other words: _status quo ante_ except that thousands of Americans and many, many more Koreans are dead and the ROK is economically devastated.

Who gains anything from that?

No one. A war in Korea makes no _strategic_ sense - but that doesn't mean that oner cannot or will not start by miscalculation.


----------



## Journeyman

Their leadership has a track-record of spooling this up during the routine US-S.Korean war games, and once again, when ENDEX is called, Kim Jong Un can turn to his people and claim to have caused the exercise to end and the US presence to scale down.

Kim Jong Un is a relatively new leader who needs to reaffirm his "place."  Yes, the rhetoric is more bellicose this time, but I suspect that barring anyone crossing some misperceived line, we're seeing much ado about nothing.



Besides, it draws attention away from the hand-wringing "won't someone think of the Syrians?!" crowd.  [/cynicism]


----------



## Edward Campbell

Journeyman said:
			
		

> Their leadership has a track-record of spooling this up during the routine US-S.Korean war games, and once again, when ENDEX is called, Kim Jong Un can turn to his people and claim to have caused the exercise to end and the US presence to scale down.
> 
> Kim Jong Un is a relatively new leader who needs to reaffirm his "place."  Yes, the rhetoric is more bellicose this time, but I suspect that barring anyone crossing some misperceived line, we're seeing much ado about nothing.
> 
> 
> 
> [size=8pt]Besides, it draws attention away from the hand-wringing "won't someone think of the Syrians?!" crowd.  [/cynicism]




It also draws attention away from China's serious and continuing disputes with its neighbours re: maritime boundaries.


----------



## tomahawk6

Kim the younger is probably not in control.Rather he is the new face of communist North Korea.He is untested and has very little experience.The North Korean aim may be to bolster Kim's image internally as a tough leader. The other thing I have noticed is that Kim Mao suits and hair style may be intended to make him into a modern day Kim Il Sung.


----------



## CougarKing

What an air war on North Korea would look like, according to _Popular Mechanics_ magazine:

Popular Mechanics link



> *This Is What Air War Over North Korea Would Look Like*
> 
> Why the U.S. sends stealth aircraft to Korean war games, and why it freaks out North Korea
> 
> *It's easy to mock North Korea for its lack of infrastructure—shoddy communications, electricity, and transportation. But one thing the nation has is a decent air defense system. * Because military action of any size would require dominating the airspace over the rogue nation, the radar sites and antiaircraft missiles available to Kim Jong-un make the airspace over North Korea one of the world's most dangerous.
> 
> That's not to say it's impenetrable. The U.S. Air Force has faced much of this hardware before, and prevailed—it's just not easy. And last week, the U.S. began to fly B-2 practice missions over the Korean peninsula, just to remind North Korea what the American Air Force can do.
> 
> Here's what you should know about the attack and defense strategies on both sides of the DMZ.
> 
> North Korean Defense
> 
> *North Korea has air defenses that cover most of the country. The border is a wall of radar, with overlapping coverage. The coasts are also covered to prevent access from that direction.*  And because so much military infrastructure is located in the interior of North Korea, much of that airspace is well-defended too. *Much of this gear was made during the Soviet era but modernized with digital controls. North Korea also fields Chinese versions of radar equipment.*  Mobile radar units, mounted on vehicles, can provide a shoot-and-scoot capability that helps radar defenses survive an attack.
> 
> *High-flying attack aircraft may choose to duck under radar nets.  To defend against that strategy, the North Koreans have invested a lot of energy in antiaircraft guns.* These are low-tech but can be dangerous. In fact, their relative lack of sophistication could be an asset—the manually operated systems are immune to cyber attacks and other electronic warfare. *North Korea will use these guns to protect its radar sites, and it has another, more capable threat to low-fliers: thousands of shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles*.
> 
> *Yes, North Korea has Soviet-era fighters and bombers, but these are not much of a threat * given South Korea's air defenses and highly capable pilots in modern warplanes such as U.S. F-15s and F-16s.
> 
> *The last lines of defense are the tunnels—some air bases and command centers are burrowed underground. An attacking air force could cave these in or destroy them outright, but that would require extra-precision airstrikes and possibly special ordnance such as bunker busters. * This complicates an air campaign, especially one with many priority targets to hit early in the war (North Korean artillery batteries, ballistic missiles, weapons of mass destruction, and troop concentrations, for example), each competing for attention.
> 
> *Some observers equate the North Korean defenses with Iraq's in 1991, which the U.S.-led coalition dismantled with surprisingly few casualties. It's true that a lot of the equipment is the same, but the seeming ease of Desert Storm belies the dangers that could await on the Korean peninsula.* In one often-forgotten encounter, the Iraqis observed the aerial refueling of inbound F-117 stealth fighters on radar. They waited for a half-hour, then let loose a barrage of missiles and AA gunfire over Baghdad. It turned out that the U.S. warplanes were bound for Mosul, but if they had been heading to the capital, the tactic could have worked.
> 
> Allied Attack Strategy
> 
> Stealth airplanes such as the B-2 Spirit and F-22 Raptor are built to operate in areas with thick air defenses. Yes, their shapes and materials can evade radar, giving the U.S. an obvious advantage over North Korea. But each has specific capabilities that must make North Korea war planners uneasy.
> 
> The B-2 has an immense range. North Korea has hundreds of ballistic missiles that it could use to attack airbases in the region. The B-2, however, can fly from the safety of Missouri to strike targets deep inside North Korea. And when it comes to ordnance, the B-2 is rated to drop the Massive Ordnance Penetrator, a 30,000-pound bunker buster. This is a good antidote for underground priority targets.
> 
> *The B-2 has other tricks. In 1991, the U.S. fooled Iraqi defenders with a barrage of decoys that caused the radar crews to switch on their systems—which could then be targeted. This is an important tactic when facing radar systems mounted on vehicles.* Decoys have gotten smaller and more advanced; Raytheon's MALD is a good example. The B-2 can carry these decoys, launch them from 500 miles away, and confuse defenders into firing at the wrong targets.
> 
> *The F-22 has never faced combat. But Raptors have appeared in Pentagon exercises in Korea, signaling that this is a place they could make their debut. Of all stealth aircraft, the Raptor is the fastest, most maneuverable, and hardest to spot. It dominates the sky—the North Korean air force would be seriously outmatched—but can also conduct air-to-ground missions. * The F-22 could play a major role along the DMZ, if there were air bases nearby that had not been struck with conventional or chemical weapon warheads (the F-22 doesn't have the B-2's globe-spanning range).
> 
> *The appearance of stealth warplanes over the Korean peninsula spooked North Korea. The reason: They are meant to exploit and defeat the regime's defense plans. *


----------



## tomahawk6

Now I wonder where my post went ? Anyone seen it ? I found it. I just forgot to hit the post button.Getting old sucks.

I don't think the scenario advanced by Popular Mechanics is likely.


----------



## CougarKing

An article on Kim Jong Un's aunt and uncle, the real power couple believed to control the reins of the North, as well as two other key figures in the regime:

**Kim Kyong-Hui*- the aunt of Kim Jong Un

**Jang Sung-Taek*- the uncle of Kim Jong Un

*Vice-Chairman *Choe Ryong-Hae* of the Central Military Committee

*Defense Minister *Kim Kyok Sik*, hardline military commander

ABC news link



> *North Korea's Real Power, Kim Jong Un's Aunt and Uncle*
> By JOOHEE CHO (@jooheecho)
> 
> SEOUL, South Korea April 1, 2013
> 
> North Korea's young leader Kim Jong Un has been portrayed as a tough talking leader setting the world's nerves on edge with his belligerence, but many analysts believe the real powers behind-the-scenes are Kim's aunt and uncle.
> 
> *Among Kim's small inner circle the most influential, often referred to as the "first family," are Kim's aunt Kim Kyong-Hui and her husband Jang Sung-Taek, both 66. *  The power couple were reportedly anointed by late-Kim Jong Il to help his 30 year-old son consolidate his position as the new figurehead and control the 1.2 million member military.
> 
> The duo was spotted most recently sitting on each side of Kim at Sunday's plenary meeting of the central committee of the ruling Workers' Party when Kim issued his latest defiant remarks, vowing to keep nuclear weapons as "the nation's life treasure" and saying it will not be traded even for "billions of dollars."
> 
> Kim Jong Un's father, analysts say, had decades of training to lead the country and control the military, but the young Kim made his debut while still in his 20s with little time as his father's understudy. North Korean people had not even heard of his existence until just a couple years before Kim Jong Il's death.
> 
> *Creating an image as a military leader is partially behind the heated rhetoric of the past few months in which Kim has threatened the U.S., South Korea, shut down hot lines and ordered his missile batteries to be readied to be fired.
> 
> "They are in a hurry to establish Kim's image as a powerful military leader to gain respect and control. And the ones doing that are Kim Kyong Hui and her husband Jang," said Jeung Young Tai, senior research fellow at Korea Institute for National Unification. *
> 
> *Kim Kyong-Hui, a younger sister of late-Kim Jong Il, has been a central political figure in North Korean politics for the past 40 years. She *  is believed to have been purged from 2003 to 2009 when she suddenly disappeared from public view. But she has reemerged in a key role in transferring power from her brother to her nephew. She was made a four star general in 2010 and appointed as the director of Workers' Party of Korea's Organization and Guidance Department, which is considered as the most prestigious post inside the Party.
> 
> *Her husband, Jang Sung-Taek  was a close confidant to late-Kim Jong Il and led the national guards in charge of protecting the head of state.
> 
> Jang also spearheaded North Korea's ill-fated attempts to revive its economy, making numerous trips to Chinese cities in hopes to duplicate China's economic success. Intelligence sources in South Korea see Jang as the counter-balancer to North Korea's military hardliners. *  He reportedly had opposed the idea of launching the long-range missile last December, but was overruled by his wife.
> 
> *Close to Jang is North Korea's most powerful military general and the de facto No.2 figure as vice chairman of the party's Central Military Committee, Choe Ryong-Hae. Choe, 64, does not have a military background. * His career path was rather a party bureaucrat and involved in managing the armed forces. But together with Jang, Choe is the chief image maker of Kim Jong Un as a primary military figure.
> 
> "They're trying desperately to portray an image of General Kim perfectly conducting the military in times of national crisis by intentionally creating a crisis situation these days," said Yun Duk-Min, professor at Korea National Diplomatic Academy.
> 
> *One last power player is Kim Kyok Sik, North Korea's defense minister and a hardline military commander. He is believed to have commanded the attack on the South Korean submarine that killed 46 sailors and shelling of Yeonpyong Island in 2010*. Kim served as the military attaché to Syria in the 1970s where he is suspected to have provided training support to movements in Ethiopia and Turkey.
> 
> Cho Long Park, Joanne Kim, and Hunny Jeong contributed to this report


----------



## cupper

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> Now I wonder where my post went ? Anyone seen it ? I found it. I just forgot to hit the post button.Getting old sucks.



Old ain't got nothing to do with it. I did that 3 times in a row a couple of weeks ago. :facepalm:


----------



## Pandora114

There you go.


----------



## mba2011

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/apr/04/north-korea-moves-missile-coast

Its a lot of saber-rattling but it still isn't something that should be taken lightly.


----------



## The_Falcon

Pandora114 said:
			
		

> There you go.



Nice pic, except it completely misses the whole part of THOUSANDS of N. Korean Artillery Pieces pointed at the South, Seoul in particular.  I am not fully versed in all things international, but I suspect THAT is a might big issue.


----------



## Nemo888

IMO Lil' Kim doesn't take a crap without clearing it with Beijing. Remember when China was funding Al Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan to bleed America's economy. Especially around the time we "accidentally" bombed their embassy in Kabul. I may be cynical but I think this may be something similar. The question is not what does NK have to gain by this. The question is what does Beijing have to gain?


----------



## Old Sweat

Nemo888 said:
			
		

> IMO Lil' Kim doesn't take a crap without clearing it with Beijing. Remember when China was funding Al Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan to bleed America's economy. Especially around the time we "accidentally" bombed their embassy in Kabul. I may be cynical but I think this may be something similar. The question is not what does NK have to gain by this. The question is what does Beijing have to gain?



Leaving aside the issue of how much control the Chinese have over North Korea, I do not recall any bombing of the Chinese embassy in Kabul by the Americans. However the Chinese embassy in Belgrade was hit during the 1990s. Can you provide details of the Kabul incident?


----------



## mba2011

Hatchet Man said:
			
		

> Nice pic, except it completely misses the whole part of THOUSANDS of N. Korean Artillery Pieces pointed at the South, Seoul in particular.  I am not fully versed in all things international, but I suspect THAT is a might big issue.



The North does have a ridiculous number of troops and weapons along the border but the South and the US has them out mached. The North has 65% of their military assets within 100km of the DMZ (75% of their aggregate firepower) which is way more than the ROK has within the same area. But the South has far superior equipment and the US. The US has 40,000 troops in ROK, 53,000 in Japan, and 8,000 in Guam. Aside from the sheer numbers, the ROK's far superior equipment and the US's unparalleled equipment gives them the edge without question.

The cartoon ignores the artillery and other weapons the North has, but those really are nothing in comparison to the ROK's and US's. The cartoon isn't just about the missile pictured its the whole conflict aha. 



			
				Nemo888 said:
			
		

> IMO Lil' Kim doesn't take a crap without clearing it with Beijing. Remember when China was funding Al Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan to bleed America's economy. Especially around the time we "accidentally" bombed their embassy in Kabul. I may be cynical but I think this may be something similar. The question is not what does NK have to gain by this. The question is what does Beijing have to gain?



Over the past few weeks Beijing is withdrawing their support for the North. The UN resolution that was helped spark this latest round of hostilities was co-authored by China and they've cut their aid funding to DPRK by 40%. It's very reactionary for Beijing and shows how serious they view the DPRK's actions. 

IMO Even Beijing is leery of the North. They don't support the DPRK provoking the US and I find it hard to believe they would support them if this saber rattling and posturing  gets to the point of armed aggression. Beijing would push for a diplomatic solution but it would be hard to see them backing the DPRK against the US. Not that the Chinese support the US, but they won't ruin their diplomatic ties with other countries over this.


----------



## Edward Campbell

I think what Beijing does is opaque; what Beijing thinks is even more obscure.

Beijing, I believe, broadly supports any and all efforts to discomfit the USA and, to a lesser degree, Japan. The Chinese goal, in my opinion, is to expel the Americans from the Asian mainland and to shake Japan's and South Korea's faith in America's promises. I think that China is vehemently opposed to any significant military action against South Korea. South Korea, like Japan, is a major source of both investment and managerial know how for China, and, as always, China is conscious of the impact of its (or the DPRK'd) actions on Taiwan. Thus, while China tolerates, even cooperates in developing the DPRK's missile and nuclear technology, it will not, I suspect, tolerate any military action much beyond sinking a South Korean patrol boat or shooting down a ROK aircraft.


On the issue of refugees: the Chinese do not want more refugees from the DPRK than they have; but they do not send legitimate refugees back to North Korea, they are allowed to stay in China, so long as they don't cause any problems, and fend for themselves, as well as they can.


Finally: a Chinese invasion of the DPRK is not simple. Look at the map: there are few bridges across the Yalu River and those that exist are medium capacity, two lane bridges. (The DPRK just agreed, after years and years of negotiations to one four lane bridge but construction has not started.) Regions where the Yalu is not a major obstacle are far from Chinese rail and road links and far from important DPRK objectives. The Chinese army has changed a lot over the past few decades. It no longer consists of huge corps of infantry and artillery. It is, now, a much smaller, much more technically complex and sophisticated force - it far outclasses the DPRK army but it can no longer concentrate and outnumber or even outgun it in Shenyang Military Region.


----------



## CougarKing

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> *Despite media reports there is no official word that the Chinese are building up forces near North Korea* and there are plenty of reasons to think that they would not do that - fear of triggering further DPRK madness being just one...



And still our media continues to report it...



> *Risky business: China continues military buildup near North Korean border as tanks, armor deploy*
> 
> Washington Times link
> 
> China continued moving tanks and armored vehicles and flying flights near North Korea this week as part of a military buildup in the northeastern part of the country that U.S. officials say is related to the crisis with North Korea.
> 
> The Obama administration, meanwhile, sought to play down the Chinese military buildup along the border with Beijing’s fraternal communist ally despite the growing danger of conflict following unprecedented threats by Pyongyang to attack the United States and South Korea with nuclear weapons.
> 
> (...)



Couldn't this _Washington Times_ reporter have come up with a better phrase than one as redundant as "Flying Flights"? Ahhh...the quality of journalism these days...  :


----------



## Nemo888

DPRK is in no position to piss off China. This sabre rattling is not for internal consumption because the Kims control everything NK'ers see and hear. NK'ers don't even know what's going on. It doesn't make sense. What does make sense is someone pulling Kim's strings as a proxy. When a war breaks out South Korea is destroyed in hours and won't be able to recover for many decades. A month later the Kim's are all dead or in hiding. Lose - Lose.  

China did not support Al Qaeda or the Taliban publicly either. But we still had to bomb their embassy to send them a message. China has a massive military medical program that arrests dissidents and protesters and sells their organs for profit. They literally round up Uighurs to meet organ quotas. At one time all you had to do was enter your tissue type on Ebay.cn.  If that is what they do to their own citizens,...

So who has something to gain?


----------



## Jungle

Nemo888 said:
			
		

> China did not support Al Qaeda or the Taliban publicly either. But we still had to bomb their embassy to send them a message.



Dude, there was never a US bombing of the Chinese embassy in Kabul; as Old Sweat mentionned, there was the accidental bombing of their embassy in Belgrade on May 7th 1999, but I'm quite certain the events in Afghanistan and the Belgrade bombing are unrelated.


----------



## Nemo888

Crap you're right. They were sending Yugoslav military transmissions and collecting intel on the cruise missile attacks. 

Somehow I confused that with stories about the Chinese backdoor funding militants in Afghanistan. I thought we took action on them in Kabul. I think the rumours about funding were true, but with a brain fart like that who knows. I guess it shows that I wished we bombed them.


----------



## Jungle

Nemo888 said:
			
		

> Crap you're right. They were sending Yugoslav military transmissions and collecting intel on the cruise missile attacks.



 No, the Chinese embassy in Belgrade was bombed by mistake. The intention was to bomb a Yugoslav Federal Directorate for Supply and Procurement building, some 180m away.


----------



## Nemo888

Even the public knows that story is BS. 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/1999/oct/17/balkans

Nato bombed Chinese deliberately

Nato hit embassy on purpose
Kosovo: special report

Nato deliberately bombed the Chinese embassy in Belgrade during the war in Kosovo after discovering it was being used to transmit Yugoslav army communications.

According to senior military and intelligence sources in Europe and the US the Chinese embassy was removed from a prohibited targets list after Nato electronic intelligence (Elint) detected it sending army signals to Milosevic's forces.

The story is confirmed in detail by three other Nato officers - a flight controller operating in Naples, an intelligence officer monitoring Yugoslav radio traffic from Macedonia and a senior headquarters officer in Brussels. They all confirm that they knew in April that the Chinese embassy was acting as a 'rebro' [rebroadcast] station for the Yugoslav army (VJ) after alliance jets had successfully silenced Milosevic's own transmitters.

The Chinese were also suspected of monitoring the cruise missile attacks on Belgrade, with a view to developing effective counter-measures against US missiles.

The intelligence officer, who was based in Macedonia during the bombing, said: 'Nato had been hunting the radio transmitters in Belgrade. When the President's [Milosevic's] residence was bombed on 23 April, the signals disappeared for 24 hours. When they came on the air again, we discovered they came from the embassy compound.' The success of previous strikes had forced the VJ to use Milosevic's residence as a rebroadcast station. After that was knocked out, it was moved to the Chinese embassy. The air controller said: 'The Chinese embassy had an electronic profile, which Nato located and pinpointed.'

The Observer investigation, carried out jointly with Politiken newspaper in Denmark, will cause embarrassment for Nato and for the British government. On Tuesday, the Queen and the Prime Minister will host a state visit by the President of China, Jiang Zemin. He is to stay at Buckingham Palace.

Jiang Zemin is still said to be outraged at the 7 May attack, which came close to splitting the alliance.The official Nato line, as expressed by President Bill Clinton and CIA director George Tenet, was that the attack on the Chinese Embassy was a mistake. Defence Secretary William Cohen said: 'One of our planes attacked the wrong target because the bombing instructions were based on an outdated map.'

Later, a source in the US National Imagery and Mapping Agency said that the 'wrong map' story was 'a damned lie'.

Tenet apologised last July, saying: 'The President of the United States has expressed our sincere regret at the loss of life in this tragic incident and has offered our condolences to the Chinese people and especially to the families of those who lost their lives in this mistaken attack.

Nato's apology was predicated on the excuse that the three missiles which landed in one corner of the embassy block were meant to be targeted at the Yugoslav Federal Directorate for Supply and Procurement, the FDSP. But inquiries have revealed there never was a VJ directorate of supply and procurement at the site named by Tenet. The VJ office for supplies - which Tenet calls FDSP - is some 500 metres down the street from the address he gave. It was bombed later.

Moreover the CIA and other Nato intelligence agencies, such as Britain's MI6 and the code-breakers at GCHQ, would have listened in to communication traffic from the Chinese embassy as a matter of course since it moved to the site in 1996.

A Nato flight control officer in Naples also confirmed to us that a map of 'non-targets': churches, hospitals and embassies, including the Chinese, did exist. On this 'don't hit' map, the Chinese embassy was correctly located at its current site, and not where it had been until 1996 - as claimed by the US and NATO.

Why the Chinese were prepared to help Milosevic is a more murky question. One possible explanation is that the Chinese lack Stealth technology, and the Yugoslavs, having shot down a Stealth fighter in the early days of the air campaign, were in a good position to trade. The Chinese may have calculated that Nato would not dare strike its embassy, but the five-storey building was emptied every night of personnel. Only three people died in the attack, two of whom were, reportedly, not journalists - the official Chinese version - but intelligence officers.

The Chinese military attache, Ven Bo Koy, who was seriously wounded in the attack and is now in hospital in China, told Dusan Janjic, the respected president of Forum for Ethnic Relations in Belgrade, only hours before the attack, that the embassy was monitoring incoming cruise missiles in order to develop counter-measures.

Nato spokesman Lee McClenny yesterday stood by the official version. 'It was a terrible mistake,' he said, 'and we have apologised.' A spokesman for the Chinese embassy in London said yesterday: 'We do not believe that the embassy was bombed because of a mistake with an out-of-date map.'


----------



## Jungle

Nemo888 said:
			
		

> Even the public knows that story is BS.



Some in the public believe that the official version is BS.


----------



## Edward Campbell

I have no brief for or against the linked blog and, of course, no way of assessing the quality of what it says but I find this article about a so-called US "playbook" interesting.


----------



## mba2011

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> I have no brief for or against the linked blog and, of course, no way of assessing the quality of what it says but I find this article about a so-called US "playbook" interesting.



Its an interesting blog for sure. No doubt the US has a playbook for DPRK. The time around the meetings they have every year are generally a time of increased tensions so some posturing was to be expected. But the scale to which the DPRK has escalated things is unprecedented. Kim Jong-il only did a couple of troop inspections and had a massive parade in October to mark the anniversary of the Workers Party's founding.

The blog doesn't address the movement of SBX from Hawaii, the re-positioning of most of  the US's NMD weapons. Not only have they moved interceptors to Ft Greely, but other Aegis Guided Missile destroyers and THAAD systems  as well. The blog does address that there is usually more military posturing this time of year but it minimalizes the depth of the posturing. 

Saber rattling or not, all this is pretty significant.


----------



## Nemo888

It does not make sense. Part of the picture is missing. 

Perhaps someone is trying to measure  the logistical strength America still has after two decade long wars and a trillion or so of debt?

Is it just me or does this whole thing just smell off? There is no winning move for either side if a conflict starts.


----------



## cupper

It's a large combination of things coming together.

Annual military exercises in the ROK, a US military winding down two foreign wars while at the same time facing deep and significant yet unspecified cuts in spending, a disfunctional government, a poor global economy, and a young inexperienced dictator looking to prove himself to the old guard.

And what could go wrong?


----------



## BrendenDias

If N.Korea goes on the first offensive, China should step in to stop them, or since their "friendship" could be honored, they should at least stay out of it. However, if the US/S.Koreans attack first (unlikely) or push the North back, since it would be on North Korean soil, the Chinese could step in, in favor of the North Koreans.
But since the Chinese own a whole lot of American debt, why discomfort so much to get involved against them? Clearly China is a superpower of trade, and controlling markets, etc...  
Who really knows for sure what would happen.. and if conflict erupts, I have no idea what China and Russia would do.. They both could realize how stupid the North is being, and not intervene, or go against them, or attempt to discomfort the Americans by aiding the North.. 
What is for sure, is that the next couple months, or even weeks should be "interesting..."


----------



## CougarKing

B.Dias said:
			
		

> If N.Korea goes on the first offensive, China should step in to stop them, or since their "friendship" could be honored, they should at least stay out of it. However, if the US/S.Koreans attack first (unlikely) or push the North back, since it would be on North Korean soil, the Chinese could step in, in favor of the North Koreans.
> But since the Chinese own a whole lot of American debt, why discomfort so much to get involved against them? Clearly China is a superpower of trade, and controlling markets, etc...
> Who really knows for sure what would happen.. and if conflict erupts, I have no idea what China and Russia would do.. They both could realize how stupid the North is being, and not intervene, or go against them, or attempt to discomfort the Americans by aiding the North..
> What is for sure, is that the next couple months, or even weeks should be "interesting..."



B.Dias,

While Beijing's actual intentions are very opaque, many in Western  foreign policy circles such as former Australian PM Kevin Rudd, seem to agree that at least for the foreseeable decade, China has an interest in making sure that the region remains stable, in order to ensure continued China's own economic prosperity and internal political stability.

Much in our media points to a Chinese buildup on the border with North Korea, but one should also remember that this could also just be the Chinese living up to their end of their mutual defense treaty with North Korea:



> (...)
> 
> The buildup likely serves two goals, the officials said. One is to bolster border security in case a conflict sends large numbers of refugees from the impoverished state into China.
> 
> Additionally, *the troop buildup is a signal to Pyongyang that China will abide by its defense commitment to North Korea in the event of renewed conflict.
> 
> China’s military maintains a mutual defense treaty with North Korea. The last time Chinese troops defended North Korea was during the Korean War*.
> 
> (...)
> 
> Read more: Washington Times link



Still, since vested Chinese interests in an economically viable South Korea are MUCH greater than in the sabre-rattling "hermit kingdom" of North Korea, it is also possible that Beijing may abandon Pyongyang as discussed in another article link below at the Chinese superthread:

"China ready to abandon North Korea" 2010 article


----------



## Journeyman

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> .... I find this article about a so-called US "playbook" interesting.


It's been getting mentioned for a couple of months now (starting before the WSJ caught up).  I can't help but think that it seems more like an Exercise MEL* _writ large_, rather than some Masonic-like conspiracy plan that some writers posit.

:dunno:


* Master Events List, not Medical Employment Limitations


----------



## Old Sweat

And it is possible, considering that actions that look provocative and batty to the outside might just seem logical and coherent to the North Korean leadership, that the MEL is designed to culminate in a previously scheduled missile test firing designed to score a direct hit on the Pacific Ocean. This is followed by some boasting and the issue of medals all around. Or maybe the glorious leader just wants Obama to give him a call.


----------



## Edward Campbell

Old Sweat said:
			
		

> And it is possible, considering that actions that look provocative and batty to the outside might just seem logical and coherent to the North Korean leadership, that the MEL is designed to culminate in a previously scheduled missile test firing designed to score a direct hit on the Pacific Ocean. This is followed by some boasting and the issue of medals all around. Or maybe the glorious leader just wants Obama to give him a call.




I think the DPRK leadership* wants - maybe needs - two things:

     1. Some urgent financial help; and

     2. Legitimacy.

It would appear that item 2, legitimacy, is, for now, at the top of the list and that's what a phone call from Obama, or something like that, would provide. It may also be that the DPRK finds China's "support" a bit stifling: that's why they have had to turn to buying antiquated Russian missiles, designed for use in submarines, from Iran.

Regarding the MEL or "playbook:" there has been a certain level of predictability about events in the region over the past few years, ever since the DPRK decided to go down the nuclear path - a perfectly logical decision, on their part, I think.



_____
* Whoever that is: Kim Jong-un, his aunt and uncle, some generals, someone else entirely ...


----------



## cupper

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> It would appear that item 2, legitimacy, is, for now, at the top of the list and that's what a phone call from Obama, or something like that, would provide.



What? Are you telling me that a visit from Dennis Rodman doesn't give legitimacy to the regime? I'd say that Kim got a lot of street cred with his homies in the hood on that one. :


----------



## CougarKing

cupper said:
			
		

> What? Are you telling me that a visit from Dennis Rodman doesn't give legitimacy to the regime? I'd say that Kim got a lot of street cred with his homies in the hood on that one. :



Cupper,

Actually, here is the REAL REASON why Dennis Rodman came to North Korea to see Kim Jong Un, his "friend for life," so to speak...  ;D


----------



## CougarKing

Back to the topic at hand...

I have a question- in spite of the statement below that there is a lack of movement in rear areas, couldn't the movements of rear echelon or support troops mentioned below just be concealed?   ???

National Post link



> *North Korea tells embassies in Pyongyang to plan for evacuation*
> 
> North Korea has asked embassies in Pyongyang that might wish to get staff out if there is a war to submit plans to it by April 10, Britain said on Friday, as it upped the pressure as part of a war of words that has set the Korean peninsula on edge.
> 
> Initial reports by Russia’s Foreign Ministry and China’s Xinhua news agency suggested that North Korea had suggested that embassies should consider closing because of the risk of conflict.
> 
> The request came amid a military buildup by the United States in South Korea following the North’s warnings that war was inevitable due to U.N. sanctions imposed for a nuclear test and what it terms “hostile” U.S. troop drills with South Korea.
> 
> *“We believe they have taken this step as part of their continuing rhetoric that the U.S. poses a threat to them,” Britain’s Foreign Office said in a statement after the reports from Russia and China.
> 
> A British diplomatic official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said that European Union embassies in Pyongyang had been summoned to deliver their evacuation plans.*
> 
> 
> (...)
> 
> *Kim Kwan-jin said that if North Korea were preparing for a full-scale conflict, there would be signs including the mobilization of a number of units, including supply and rear troops, but South Korean military officials have found no such preparations.*
> 
> (...)


----------



## The Bread Guy

The latest from the U.S. Congressional Research Service on N.Korean nukes attached (thanks to the Federation of American Scientists for sharing) - this from the exec summary:


> .... In total, it is estimated that North Korea has between 30 and 50 kilograms of separated plutonium, enough for at least half a dozen nuclear weapons. North Korea’s plutonium production reactor at Yongbyon has been shuttered since its cooling tower was destroyed under international agreement in June 2008. However, on April 1, 2013, North Korea said it would resume operation of its plutonium production reactor. Experts estimate it will take approximately six months to restart. This would provide North Korea with approximately one bomb’s worth of plutonium per year.
> 
> (....)
> 
> Many experts believe that the prime objective of North Korea’s nuclear program is to develop a nuclear warhead that could be mounted on North Korea’s intermediate-range and long-range missiles. This was confirmed by North Korean official statements in late March 2013.  Miniaturization of a nuclear warhead would likely require additional nuclear and missile tests.
> 
> (....)
> 
> To date, no open source date on test emissions is available that might show whether the North Koreans tested a uranium or plutonium device. This information could help determine the type and sophistication of the North Korean nuclear warhead design, about which little is known.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Oh No!  ;D


----------



## CougarKing

The day after Dennis Rodman's visit to North Korea...  ;D


----------



## tomahawk6

I doubt that North Korea has a nuclear warhead. They just had a successful underground test but thats not the same as putting a warhead on a ballistic missile and launching it at a target.


----------



## Retired AF Guy

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> I doubt that North Korea has a nuclear warhead. They just had a successful underground test but thats not the same as putting a warhead on a ballistic missile and launching it at a target.



There are other ways of delivering a nuke warhead besides a ballistic missile.


----------



## CougarKing

Retired AF Guy said:
			
		

> There are other ways of delivering a nuke warhead besides a ballistic missile.



Don't the North Koreans have 22 aging _Romeo_ class submarines they acquired from China? Aren't these the same as the Soviet-era _Whiskey_ class submarines which are capable of launching nuclear-armed torpedoes (such as the SET-65) at an adversary's fleet or port?


----------



## mba2011

S.M.A. said:
			
		

> Don't the North Koreans have 22 aging _Romeo_ class submarines they acquired from China? Aren't these the same as the Soviet-era _Whiskey_ class submarines which are capable of launching nuclear-armed torpedoes (such as the SET-65) at an adversary's fleet or port?



They have replaced 8 of the Romeo class boats and are, at last report, still planning on retiring them. They are being replaced by the Sang-O class, that could fire a nuclear armed torpedo. The Whiskey Class boats have all been removed service and are in the process of being scrapped. 

There is no known development on a nuclear torpedo platform though, according to both ROK and US defense think tanks. I would have a hard time seeing them spend the money on a torpedo weapons platform, owing to the fact that the submarines have such a limited capability.


----------



## tomahawk6

The most efficient is by ballistic missile. I don't know if the North Koreans have the technology to do that. The goal would be to create an EMP,which would shut down everything electronic.


----------



## jeffb

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> The most efficient is by ballistic missile. I don't know if the North Koreans have the technology to do that. The goal would be to create an EMP,which would shut down everything electronic.



Be that as it may, there are all kinds of ways that North Korea could deliver a nuclear weapon that would still be very effective if not optimal. A container ship detonating as it pulled alongside in Los Angeles or San Fransisco prior to inspection for example. This is not a country that is planning on neutralizing the US nuclear threat with its nuclear arsenal. They can't even provide mutually assured destruction deterrence. All that their nuclear warheads have to do is present a specter of mushroom clouds in any American city or even in Japan, South Korea, etc. and they meet the intent of negating any thoughts of conventional force use on the parts of the US. 

An EMP, especially a High Altitude EMP, would be quite effective but the same technical problems apply. The missile technology required to get a nuclear warhead the 400 Km up and over North America required to have a large effect is largely the same as that required to place a warhead in Washington, DC.


----------



## CougarKing

jeffb said:
			
		

> A container ship detonating as it pulled alongside in Los Angeles or San Fransisco prior to inspection for example.



I would have thought a "dirty nuke" or "dirty bomb" would also be another credible threat delivered by the means above, considering Pyongyang's access to nuclear technology.


And here's a definition of the above threat:



> *WHAT IS A 'DIRTY BOMB'?*
> TIME Pentagon correspondent Mark Thompson explains:
> 
> "Dirty nukes are what you may choose to build if you're unable to create a real nuclear bomb, i.e. one whose explosion is based on a nuclear reaction. *A dirty bomb is a conventional explosive salted with radioactive isotopes in order to spew out that nuclear material and contaminate a wide area. * The military usefulness of such devices have always been in dispute. In fact, the TNT in such a bomb may still be more dangerous than the nuclear material. Its destructive power would really depend on the size of the conventional bomb, and the volume and nature of the nuclear material.
> 
> "The assumption has been that forces who would build a dirty nuke would do so because it's far, far easier than to build a nuclear bomb. It's unlikely to kill 10,000 people, but any bomb that killed people and set off Geiger counters would terrify a whole city. It's ultimately a pure terror weapon."
> 
> Read more: http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,182637,00.html#ixzz2PnlWRHw4


----------



## Smirnoff123

Heres another.


----------



## Old Sweat

As of today the North Koreans are in control of events. They do not even have to have a warhead or even a dirty bomb; all they have to do is keep the possibility alive. A couple of test firings of mobile missiles, even if partly or wholly unsuccessful, will keep theat alive in the minds of the rest of the world. The challenge is not to go too far, which does not mean they won't sink a South Korean ship or shell a border post or murder an official. In fact, they can even trade a few lives and still remain in control.

Look, they have bluffed the Americans into postponing a missile test of their own. Obama, Kerry, Hagel et al just blinked. Hopefully this will all die out by the end of the month. Given my record and the record of the punditry in predicting events, however, that may not happen. But at this time, all I see is excessive rhetoric from an unpredictable, heavily armed dynasty - sort of a street gang on meth - whom everybody else is inclined to humour in the hope they will go away.


----------



## mba2011

Old Sweat said:
			
		

> As of today the North Koreans are in control of events. They do not even have to have a warhead or even a dirty bomb; all they have to do is keep the possibility alive..



I disagree. IMO the Americans have control of this. If the North launched any missile at the Americans in Japan or ROK, or anything bigger than an artillery shell at ROK, the Americans will shoot it down and then go on the offensive. 

The US's MDA has Aegis components in the Sea of Japan with the USN and THAAD components in Guam, Fort Greely and Vandenberg AFB. In addition to that, the SBX craft is moving to the Sea of Japan. The American's will know the second anything is launched.

Yes the North is making threats and the US is responding to them, but just because the US isn't making threats back doesn't mean the North is in control.


----------



## jeffb

armourmike said:
			
		

> I disagree. IMO the Americans have control of this. If the North launched any missile at the Americans in Japan or ROK, or anything bigger than an artillery shell at ROK, the Americans will shoot it down and then go on the offensive.



Your scenario actually disproves your point. The DPRK has the initiative. The US can not do anything unless the DPRK commits a violent act. The US has to be seen to be working for peace in order to avoid charges of warmongering both from within and without. The US basically is forced to be reactive here. 

That being said, in the event of this conflict going "hot" the US, and its wide range of allies I suspect, will quickly regain the initiative as the DPRK finds itself quickly isolated and subjected to the exact kind of fight that Western militaries have been aching for since Gulf War 1. A "stand-up" fight against an organized military with all the trappings associated thereof.


----------



## Old Sweat

Indeed. They have all these resources deployed to counter the NK regime, which can not be somewhere else. And of course, the Americans could destroy the country, but they are not in any position to do so, without risking a clash with the Chinese. The question is what can the Chinese do to deescalate the tension. Unfortunately they can't do much in the short term, one way or the other. My point is that the possible existence of one or more nukes makes any escalation by the US, China, Japan or SK far too risky, unless there was a massive NK attack on the south, and that is unlikely.

NK is contained, and it is not. It can't do too much, but it is still capable of considerable mischief.


----------



## mba2011

Old Sweat said:
			
		

> My point is that the possible existence of one or more nukes makes any escalation by the US, China, Japan or SK far too risky, unless there was a massive NK attack on the south, and that is unlikely.



I think that its more the fact that if the US moves without substantial provocation they risk escalating tensions with the Chinese, then the possible possession  of a nuke by DPRK. If the US was to become the aggressor tomorrow, many countries would be angered and the Chinese would be especially angered. If DPRK throws the first punch and then the US attacks, very few countries would see it as an unjustified attack or react negatively. 

There's an interesting article about the Chinese and supporting the DPRK. Its been noted before the reduction of aid since February as well as a drastic reduction of arms shipments, but this is the first time Beijing has come close to outright condemnation of DPRK. 

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/08/world/asia/from-china-a-call-to-avoid-chaos-for-selfish-gain.html?ref=world


----------



## Old Sweat

armourmike said:
			
		

> I think that its more the fact that if the US moves without substantial provocation they risk escalating tensions with the Chinese, then the possible possession  of a nuke by DPRK. If the US was to become the aggressor tomorrow, many countries would be angered and the Chinese would be especially angered. If DPRK throws the first punch and then the US attacks, very few countries would see it as an unjustified attack or react negatively.
> 
> There's an interesting article about the Chinese and supporting the DPRK. Its been noted before the reduction of aid since February as well as a drastic reduction of arms shipments, but this is the first time Beijing has come close to outright condemnation of DPRK.
> 
> http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/08/world/asia/from-china-a-call-to-avoid-chaos-for-selfish-gain.html?ref=world



What makes you think the US would take the course of action you suggest?


----------



## Nemo888

The conflict is primarily between North and South Korea. If conflict starts 10,000 artillery pieces immediately start firing into Seoul. Over 80% of South Korean industry and their major financial sector are within range. South Korea is toast. All the plans involve retreating to the South and then taking back Seoul later. The DPRK soldiers survival plan involves a rush into what is left of Seoul to loot food and supplies. We win the war a few months later obviously.

The problem is the cost of winning. South Korea is a major part of global supply chains. No iPhones, flat panels or computer memory. It would probably start another global recession. To top it off WTF do we do with North Korea. It is nothing but a liability. Even if the North offered to rejoin many in the South do not want them back. Some analysts say China wants reconciliation to destroy South Korea's economy.


----------



## jeffb

I am not convinced that it would go as badly as you assume Nemo. Looking at the Korean War as an example, while it is true that the North has become much more militarized, the South is substantially more prepared then they were in 1950. The US Army in 1950 was almost non-existent in the region at the time and technological gap between the North Koreans, later backed by China, and the UN Forces was not substantial. Fast forward to today and you have a situation in which it is unlikely that North Korea would enjoy and intervention, direct or indirect, on the scale that it did 60 years ago. Also, the techological gap between the DPRK forces and South Korea/ US forces is vast. 

Your point about the initial bombardments is valid but Seoul is about 50 km from the border. This means that while it may be in range of some of their MLRS systems, it would be out of range of any of the artillery. This would require the DPRK to move up their massive numbers of guns before a sustained bombardment. I just don't buy that the DPRK has the prime movers to deploy that many guns, and associated artillery, up the few roads while advancing their tens (hundreds?) of thousands of troops up the same ground.


----------



## Nemo888

50k is around half way. Seoul is over 600Km2. The fools have built right to the Imjin river. If America had the balls to first strike it they might be able to save Seoul. It would take every B52 loaded with incendiary cluster munitions. Cut a swath 20km or wider across the border. A few thousand square kilometers like an oven on broil and no oxygen. Problem solved. Back in time for lunch. Screw "smart" weapons.

That fact is probably why the Kim's will just whine for attention and then back down at the last minute. They are the crazy, smelly homeless person yelling insults on the bus. There is nothing to gain by kicking their ass. Just read your paper and ignore them.


----------



## Fishbone Jones

My god. listen to yourselves. The world is going to end, the sky is falling!

This guy is a pissant, a blowhard and an egotistcal idiot.

If he decides to toss out a couple of nukes, there is little anyone can do about it.

When that happens, the WORLD will retaliate and N Korea will be no more. The people, land, everything that is there now, will still exist, but the government won't. There will be a forced takeover, unless China gets there first.

All this chicken little hand wringing amounts to nothing but angst.

Trying to analyze what this despotic imbicile is going to do is a waste of time, brain power and vocabulary.

He doesn't deserve the time it takes to wipe your ass with his latest threats.

Just like Kim wants.

Take a breath and try think beyond the most recent threat he makes. He's either going to do it or not.

Either way, there's SFA anyone can do about it if he decides to push the button.

If he doesn't follow through, he loses face and becomes an idiot an the world stage. If he does, he loses his country and his life. 

We'll kill him and everyone connected to him, just like we have with the rest of the world's terrorists.

All the blubbering in the world about how scary this twat is, is a useless waste of energy and a distraction from whatever sport you should be watching.


----------



## Retired AF Guy

Happened to catch this interview the other day on CBC Radio with B.R. Myers, who says that everything we know about the North Koreans is wrong.

http://www.cbc.ca/day6/popupaudio.html?clipIds=2371589921


----------



## GR66

While anything is possible with a madman at the helm, I think China will likely go to great lengths to prevent it getting out of hand.  They potentially have much to lose.  Significant damage to the South would hurt China's economy and could hurt them politically as well.  If they are seen as defending an aggressive madman it could provide an excuse for the West to place economic barriers to China's continuing economic growth which is vital to their internal political stability.

If Kim uses a nuke or lays waste to Seoul, it will be difficult for China to argue against American invasion without political side effects.  They would confirm the worst fears of their neighbours as to their motives while the Americans would be re-confirmed as the defenders of freedom and independence in the region.  I think they realize it would be a major setback from what they have been working toward with little or no payoff in return.

I think it would be much wiser for China to step in and stop Kim should he cross any line.  That way THEY could be seen as the heroes saving the day.  The need for the Americans to remain in place as the "defenders" would cease and China's influence in the region would be increased.


----------



## OldSolduer

I'm with recceguy on this one. 

No one knows what this clown will do, nor do we know what the response of the US, China, Russia or Madagascar will be.


----------



## GAP

The US will do what it has always done.....pat the rabid puppy on the head, feed him the aid he wants, pat themselves on the shoulder....


----------



## CougarKing

Meanwhile Pyongyang continues its current round of brinksmanship...

link




> *South Korean ministry: 'Indication' that North Korea preparing for fourth nuclear test*
> 
> SEOUL, South Korea - *South Korea's point man on North Korea said Monday there is an "indication" that Pyongyang is preparing for a fourth nuclear test, a day after another Seoul official said a Pyongyang missile test may be in the works.*
> 
> Unification Minister Ryoo Kihl-jae told a parliamentary committee Monday that "there is such an indication" of nuclear test preparations at Pyongyang's site in the country's northeast, according to two ministry officials who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly on the matter.
> 
> Either a nuclear test or a missile test would escalate tensions that have been rising for weeks on the Korean Peninsula, and could invite a new round of U.N. Security Council sanctions over North Korea's nuclear and rocket activity. The U.S. and South Korea have been raising their defence posture, and foreign diplomats were considering a warning from Pyongyang that their safety in North Korea could not be guaranteed beginning Wednesday.
> 
> *North Korea has unleashed a flurry of war threats and provocations over the U.N. sanctions and ongoing U.S.-South Korean military drills, which the allies say are routine but Pyongyang says is a preparation for a northward invasion.
> 
> Ryoo made his comment in answering a lawmaker's question about increased personnel and vehicle activities at the North's nuclear test site.
> 
> Ministry officials cite Ryoo as telling the lawmakers he wouldn't provide further details because they involve confidential intelligence affairs.*
> 
> South Korean defence officials previously said the North completed preparations for a nuclear test at two underground tunnels. The North used one tunnel for its Feb. 12 nuclear test. The second remains unused.


----------



## Kat Stevens

What amazes me is that the Chinese haven't loudly, and publicly, disciplined this yapping mutt.  Trans-Pacific missile ping pong would be bad for China's newly discovered greed machines.


----------



## CougarKing

Kat Stevens said:
			
		

> What amazes me is that the Chinese haven't loudly, and publicly, disciplined this yapping mutt.  Trans-Pacific missile ping pong would be bad for China's newly discovered greed machines.



Even certain key US Senators have acknowledged this publicly, showing how irked they were at China's inability to rein in Kim Jong Un:

link



> *U.S. lawmakers say China has failed to rein in North Korea*
> 
> WASHINGTON (Reuters) - China has failed to use its influence to stop North Korea's warlike rhetoric against the United States and U.S.-backed South Korea, despite an escalating crisis that could trigger armed conflict by accident, U.S. lawmakers said on Sunday.
> 
> *Republican Senator John McCain, a member of the Armed Services Committee, criticized China's "failure to rein in what could be a catastrophic situation," saying Beijing could step up pressure on Pyongyang by using its influence over North Korea's economy.
> 
> "China does hold the key to this problem. China could cut off their economy if they want to. Chinese behavior has been very disappointing," McCain said on CBS's "Face the Nation" program.*
> 
> "More than once, wars have started by accident and this is a very serious situation," he added.
> 
> "South Korea would win. We would win if there was an all-out conflict. But the fact is that North Korea could set Seoul on fire. And that obviously would be a catastrophe of enormous proportions," McCain said.
> 
> *Senator Chuck Schumer, a Democrat who has been a prominent critic of China's currency policy, said he agreed with McCain.
> 
> "The Chinese hold a lot of the cards here. They're by nature cautious. But they're carrying it to an extreme. It's about time they stepped up to the plate and put a little pressure on this North Korean regime," Schumer said on the same program.*
> 
> North Korea has threatened war against the United States and the South in what analysts and U.S. politicians see as an attempt to wring concessions from the international community and shore up internal support for Pyongyang's 30-year-old leader, Kim Jong-un.
> 
> The senators' comments came as China, North Korea's sole financial and diplomatic backer, showed growing irritation with Pyongyang's vitriolic rhetoric toward the West.
> 
> Beijing has warned against "trouble making" on its doorstep in an apparent rebuke to North Korea, while Chinese leaders have spoken against provocative words and actions in the region.
> 
> On Sunday, the Foreign Ministry expressed "grave concern" and said China had asked North Korea to "ensure the safety of Chinese diplomats in North Korea, in accordance with the Vienna Convention and international laws and norms."
> 
> 'BOILING POINT'
> 
> Meanwhile, the United States has postponed the long-scheduled test of its Minuteman III intercontinental missile to avoid what a defense official called "any misperception or miscalculation."
> 
> *Former U.S. Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman told CNN on Sunday that it was unprecedented for Chinese President Xi Jinping to warn in a recent speech that no country "should be allowed to throw a region and even the whole world into chaos for selfish gain."
> 
> "It suggests to me, as I've watched the ratcheting up of frustration among Chinese leaders over the last many years, that they've probably hit the 212-degree boiling point as it relates to North Korea," Huntsman said.*
> 
> The White House on Sunday had no immediate comment on recent Chinese statements.
> 
> But White House senior adviser Dan Pfeiffer told ABC's "This Week" program that North Korea is following a long-standing pattern of "provocative actions, bellicose rhetoric."
> 
> "The key here is for the North Koreans to stop their actions, start meeting their international obligations and put themselves in a position where they can achieve what is their stated goal, which is economic development," he said.
> 
> *China also came under fire from Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, a leading voice on foreign policy issues who also sits on the Armed Services Committee.
> 
> "I blame the Chinese more than anybody else. They're afraid of reunification. They don't want a democratic Korea next to China, so they are propping up this crazy regime. And they could determine the fate of North Korea better than anybody on the planet," he said on NBC's "Meet the Press."*
> (Reporting by David Morgan; Additional reporting by Aruna Viswanatha; Editing by Eric Beech)


----------



## Edward Campbell

China has "failed" to "reign in" the DPRK but, honestly, I cannot see WHY they would want to do that nor HOW they might manage it. Reports say that aid, other than food, has been slashed by as much as 40%. The Chinese are lot like us: no one wants to accused of starving North Korea into submission but it's hard to see what else might work. As to the "why,:" what is so bad, this time, compared to all the other times? The DPRK is still a step short of outrageous conduct ... "reigning them in" would, from a Chinese point of view, be akin to admitting that Chinese policy has been in error; that would be a dreadful loss of "face," and I cannot see the Chinese doing that until either:

1. North Korea does something really bad - worse than a missile test or sinking a ROK patrol boat; or

2. The USA and ROK offer comprehensive _reunification_ talks that involve: a total withdrawal of US troops and a major - a trillion dollar - US financial commitment to the costs of reunification.


----------



## CougarKing

Kat Stevens said:
			
		

> What amazes me is that the Chinese haven't loudly, and publicly, disciplined this yapping mutt.



Actually, Chinese President and CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping came the closest any Chinese leader has ever gone to condemning their next-door neighbour and nominal ally:

South China Morning Post link



> *President Xi Jinping issues call for regional stability
> President tells Boao forum that 'no country should be allowed to throw … the world into chaos' in apparent reference to North Korea*
> 
> 
> Monday, 08 April, 2013, 7:38am
> 
> President Xi Jinping said no country should be allowed to cause chaos in the region as he acknowledged Asia faced "new challenges" to its stability amid mounting concern over North Korea's nuclear threat.
> 
> "No one should be allowed to throw a region and even the whole world into chaos for selfish gains," Xi said in the opening speech yesterday at the Boao Forum for Asia in the southern province of Hainan. Xi did not name any particular country in his speech and his language appeared to be diplomatically ambiguous.
> 
> But Professor Wang Xinsheng, a historian at Peking University who specialises in Northeast Asia, said there was little doubt he was referring to the escalating tension on the Korean peninsula.
> 
> *"I think this is a clear message to North Korea and I also think it was one of the toughest remarks on the issue by a Chinese leader," said Wang. Foreign Minister Wang Yi expressed frustration at North Korea in a statement late on Saturday, saying the central government would not "allow trouble-making on China's doorstep".*
> 
> Tensions have soared in recent weeks, with North Korea threatening nuclear war after the United Nations imposed fresh sanctions over its latest atomic test and the United States and South Korea launched war games.
> 
> "Stability in Asia now faces new challenges as hot spot issues keep emerging and both traditional and non-traditional security threats exist," Xi said.
> 
> He added that relevant countries need to make "concerted efforts" to resolve major difficulties to ensure regional stability.
> 
> *Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard echoed Xi's remarks, saying that "all countries in the region share a deep interest in strategic stability".
> 
> But Gillard, who has been critical of Pyongyang, singled out North Korea at the forum, saying the situation on the Korean peninsula illustrated the potential consequences of conflict.
> 
> Beijing yesterday asked North Korea to ensure the safety of Chinese diplomats and citizens in North Korea.*
> 
> Xi's wife, Peng Liyuan, a well-known soprano, was sitting in the second row of the audience as her husband, who became president last month, gave the keynote speech at the forum.
> 
> "The international community should advocate the vision of comprehensive security and cooperative security, so as to turn the global village into a big stage for common development rather than an arena where gladiators fight each other," Xi said.
> 
> While advocating a peaceful and open-minded approach for greater regional development, Xi - in an apparent reference to territorial disputes with neighbouring countries - said China would "properly handle differences and frictions with relevant countries", but would also continue to press its claims.
> 
> "On the basis of firmly upholding its sovereignty, security and territorial integrity, China will maintain good relations with its neighbours and overall peace and stability in our region," the president said.
> 
> Additional reporting by Agence France-Presse


----------



## BrendenDias

If North Korea makes one bad move, such as a missile getting fired over the DMZ, or something gets launched that harms the US, South Korea, anyone around them, the South Koreans and Americans WILL retaliate. The South Korean leader has already said that she will not stand for another event such as the ship sinking, and the island shelling. They will retaliate, and I do not blame the South Korean leader for stating that, because the DPRK cannot keep using "small attacks" with no retaliation and get out unscathed.. it almost seems like appeasement has been happening in the last few decades... for the most part I guess...


----------



## GnyHwy

B.Dias said:
			
		

> it almost seems like appeasement has been happening in the last few decades... for the most part I guess...



Almost?  It's exactly like that.  Just like giving a baby a lollypop to shut them up when they cry.  Only the lollypop is billions of dollars in aid, oil, and recognition on the world stage.


----------



## Journeyman

Again, courtesy of Stratfor: Global Intelligence

I know it's a lot of words. Sorry.   



> *Ferocious, Weak and Crazy: The North Korean Strategy*
> April 9, 2013 | 0900 GMT
> 
> By George Friedman
> Founder and Chairman
> 
> Editor's Note: George Friedman originally wrote this Geopolitical Weekly on North Korea's nuclear strategy on Jan. 29. More than two months later, the geopolitical contours of the still-evolving crisis have become more clear, so we believe it important to once again share with readers the fundamentals outlined in this earlier forecast.
> 
> North Korea's state-run media reported Sunday that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has ordered the country's top security officials to take "substantial and high-profile important state measures," which has been widely interpreted to mean that North Korea is planning its third nuclear test. Kim said the orders were retaliation for the U.S.-led push to tighten U.N. sanctions on Pyongyang following North Korea's missile test in October. A few days before Kim's statement emerged, the North Koreans said future tests would target the United States, which North Korea regards as its key adversary along with Washington's tool, South Korea.
> 
> North Korea has been using the threat of tests and the tests themselves as weapons against its neighbors and the United States for years. On the surface, threatening to test weapons does not appear particularly sensible. If the test fails, you look weak. If it succeeds, you look dangerous without actually having a deliverable weapon. And the closer you come to having a weapon, the more likely someone is to attack you so you don't succeed in actually getting one. Developing a weapon in absolute secret would seem to make more sense. When the weapon is ready, you display it, and you have something solid to threaten enemies with.
> 
> North Korea, of course, has been doing this for years and doing it successfully, so what appears absurd on the surface quite obviously isn't. On the contrary, it has proved to be a very effective maneuver. North Korea is estimated to have a gross domestic product of about $28 billion, about the same as Latvia or Turkmenistan. Yet it has maneuvered itself into a situation where the United States, Japan, China, Russia and South Korea have sat down with it at the negotiating table in a bid to persuade it not to build weapons. Sometimes, the great powers give North Korea money and food to persuade it not to develop weapons. It sometimes agrees to a halt, but then resumes its nuclear activities. It never completes a weapon, but it frequently threatens to test one. And when it carries out such tests, it claims its tests are directed at the United States and South Korea, as if the test itself were a threat.
> 
> There is brilliance in North Korea's strategy. When the Soviet Union collapsed, North Korea was left in dire economic straits. There were reasonable expectations that its government would soon collapse, leading to the unification of the Korean Peninsula. Naturally, the goal of the North Korean government was regime survival, so it was terrified that outside powers would invade or support an uprising against it. It needed a strategy that would dissuade anyone from trying that. Being weak in every sense, this wasn't going to be easy, but the North Koreans developed a strategy that we described more than 10 years ago as ferocious, weak and crazy. North Korea has pursued this course since the 1990s, and the latest manifestation of this strategy was on display last week. The strategy has worked marvelously and is still working.
> 
> *A Three-Part Strategy*
> First, the North Koreans positioned themselves as ferocious by appearing to have, or to be on the verge of having, devastating power. Second, they positioned themselves as being weak such that no matter how ferocious they are, there would be no point in pushing them because they are going to collapse anyway. And third, they positioned themselves as crazy, meaning pushing them would be dangerous since they were liable to engage in the greatest risks imaginable at the slightest provocation.
> 
> In the beginning, Pyongyang's ability to appear ferocious was limited to the North Korean army's power to shell Seoul. It had massed artillery along the border and could theoretically devastate the southern capital, assuming the North had enough ammunition, its artillery worked and air power didn't lay waste to its massed artillery. The point was not that it was going to level Seoul but that it had the ability to do so. There were benefits to outsiders in destabilizing the northern regime, but Pyongyang's ferocity -- uncertain though its capabilities were -- was enough to dissuade South Korea and its allies from trying to undermine the regime. Its later move to develop missiles and nuclear weapons followed from the strategy of ferocity -- since nothing was worth a nuclear war, enraging the regime by trying to undermine it wasn't worth the risk.
> 
> Many nations have tried to play the ferocity game, but the North Koreans added a brilliant and subtle twist to it: being weak. The North Koreans advertised the weakness of their economy, particularly its food insecurity, by various means. This was not done overtly, but by allowing glimpses of its weakness. Given the weakness of its economy and the difficulty of life in North Korea, there was no need to risk trying to undermine the North. It would collapse from its own defects.
> 
> This was a double inoculation. The North Koreans' ferocity with weapons whose effectiveness might be questionable, but still pose an unquantifiable threat, caused its enemies to tread carefully. Why risk unleashing its ferocity when its weakness would bring it down? Indeed, a constant debate among Western analysts over the North's power versus its weakness combines to paralyze policymakers.
> 
> The North Koreans added a third layer to perfect all of this. They portrayed themselves as crazy, working to appear unpredictable, given to extravagant threats and seeming to welcome a war. Sometimes, they reaffirmed they were crazy via steps like sinking South Korean ships for no apparent reason. As in poker, so with the North: You can play against many sorts of players, from those who truly understand the odds to those who are just playing for fun, but never, ever play poker against a nut. He is totally unpredictable, can't be gamed, and if you play with his head you don't know what will happen.
> 
> So long as the North Koreans remained ferocious, weak and crazy, the best thing to do was not irritate them too much and not to worry what kind of government they had. But being weak and crazy was the easy part for the North; maintaining its appearance of ferocity was more challenging. Not only did the North Koreans have to keep increasing their ferocity, they had to avoid increasing it so much that it overpowered the deterrent effect of their weakness and craziness.
> 
> *A Cautious Nuclear Program*
> Hence, we have North Korea's eternal nuclear program. It never quite produces a weapon, but no one can be sure whether a weapon might be produced. Due to widespread perceptions that the North Koreans are crazy, it is widely believed they might rush to complete their weapon and go to war at the slightest provocation. The result is the United States, Russia, China, Japan and South Korea holding meetings with North Korea to try to persuade it not to do something crazy.
> 
> Interestingly, North Korea never does anything significant and dangerous, or at least not dangerous enough to break the pattern. Since the Korean War, North Korea has carefully calculated its actions, timing them to avoid any move that could force a major reaction. We see this caution built into its nuclear program. After more than a decade of very public ferocity, the North Koreans have not come close to a deliverable weapon. But since if you upset them, they just might, the best bet has been to tread lightly and see if you can gently persuade them not to do something insane.
> 
> The North's positioning is superb: Minimal risky action sufficient to lend credibility to its ferocity and craziness plus endless rhetorical threats maneuvers North Korea into being a major global threat in the eyes of the great powers. Having won themselves this position, the North Koreans are not about to risk it, even if a 20-something leader is hurling threats.
> 
> *The China Angle and the Iranian Pupi*l
> There is, however, a somewhat more interesting dimension emerging. Over the years, the United States, Japan and South Korea have looked to the Chinese to intercede and persuade the North Koreans not to do anything rash. This diplomatic pattern has established itself so firmly that we wonder what the actual Chinese role is in all this. China is currently engaged in territorial disputes with U.S. allies in the South and East China seas. Whether anyone would or could go to war over islands in these waters is dubious, but the situation is still worth noting.
> 
> The Chinese and the Japanese have been particularly hostile toward one another in recent weeks in terms of rhetoric and moving their ships around. A crisis in North Korea, particularly one in which the North tested a nuclear weapon, would inevitably initiate the diplomatic dance whereby the Americans and Japanese ask the Chinese to intercede with the North Koreans. The Chinese would oblige. This is not a great effort for them, since having detonated a nuclear device, the North isn't interested in doing much more. In fact, Pyongyang will be drawing on the test's proverbial fallout for some time. The Chinese are calling in no chits with the North Koreans, and the Americans and Japanese -- terribly afraid of what the ferocious, weak, crazy North Koreans will do next -- will be grateful to China for defusing the "crisis." And who could be so churlish as to raise issues on trade or minor islands when China has used its power to force North Korea to step down?
> 
> It is impossible for us to know what the Chinese are thinking, and we have no overt basis for assuming the Chinese and North Koreans are collaborating, but we do note that China has taken an increasing interest in stabilizing North Korea. For its part, North Korea has tended to stage these crises -- and their subsequent Chinese interventions -- at quite useful times for Beijing.
> 
> It should also be noted that other countries have learned the ferocious, weak, crazy maneuver from North Korea. Iran is the best pupil. It has convincingly portrayed itself as ferocious via its nuclear program, endlessly and quite publicly pursuing its program without ever quite succeeding. It is also persistently seen as weak, perpetually facing economic crises and wrathful mobs of iPod-wielding youths. Whether Iran can play the weakness card as skillfully as North Korea remains unclear -- Iran just doesn't have the famines North Korea has.
> 
> Additionally, Iran's rhetoric at times can certainly be considered crazy: Tehran has carefully cultivated perceptions that it would wage nuclear war even if this meant the death of all Iranians. Like North Korea, Iran also has managed to retain its form of government and its national sovereignty. Endless predictions of the fall of the Islamic republic to a rising generation have proved false.
> 
> I do not mean to appear to be criticizing the "ferocious, weak and crazy" strategy. When you are playing a weak hand, such a strategy can yield demonstrable benefits. It preserves regimes, centers one as a major international player and can wring concessions out of major powers. It can be pushed too far, however, when the fear of ferocity and craziness undermines the solace your opponents find in your weakness.
> 
> Diplomacy is the art of nations achieving their ends without resorting to war. It is particularly important for small, isolated nations to survive without going to war. As in many things, the paradox of appearing willing to go to war in spite of all rational calculations can be the foundation for avoiding war. It is a sound strategy, and for North Korea and Iran, for the time being at least, it has worked.



As has been posted previously, despite the greater-than-usual rhetoric, this isn't particularly new. We'll have to watch how it plays out; since Tokyo has rolled out the capability-3 Patriot missile batteries, and the US has publicly declared that they're scaling back some of the exercise activities, North Korea apparently knows what they're doing in this latest round of brinkmanship. 




> Personal plug for Stratfor: it's _almost_ as good a subscription investment as Army.ca -- _almost_.   :nod:


----------



## cupper

Couple of interesting takes on the issue on NPR today.

*A View From South Korea: The North Is 'A Playground Bully'*

http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2013/04/09/176666103/a-view-from-south-korea-the-north-is-a-playground-bully



> "It's like a joke. It's like a playground bully," says Hong, 76, a retired shoe manufacturer who asked to be referred to by a single name. "I don't take it seriously. It's nonsense."
> 
> Hong was strolling through the soy sauce section of a downtown Seoul supermarket, where there were no signs of panicked buying and the shelves were full.
> 
> Hong knows North Korea well. He used to live there and fled to the South during the Korean War when he was a teenager. He thinks the North continues to threaten the South and the U.S. not because it wants to fight, but because it wants continued economic support.
> 
> Hong says the rhetoric is a form of blackmail.
> 
> "They are like spoiled children, asking for more and more," he says. "The party elites are doing this to feed themselves and to maintain power."
> 
> North Korea has rarely made good on its threats. But in 2010, it was blamed for torpedoing a South Korean naval ship, killing 46 people. South Korea took no revenge, but people here seem less willing these days to turn the other cheek.
> 
> Hong says if the North attacks again, it should pay. "We are idiots if we don't take any action" he says. "We need to fight."
> 
> A few aisles away, Oh Jung Mi, 48, is shopping for tofu. A frilly, pink dress for her 7-year-old daughter, You Jin, sits in her grocery basket.
> 
> Oh isn't as cavalier as Hong, but she isn't terrified either. She's heard on the news how she should prepare for a possible attack, but she doesn't really expect one.
> 
> "I know where the evacuation bunker is in our apartments, and I know what to prepare, such as gas masks and lanterns," says Oh, a mother of three. "I know I should prepare these things, but I can't really get myself to act on it."
> 
> Kim Soo Young, 24, is more concerned about North Korea than most. A friend's brother died in the 2010 ship sinking. Kim, a student who works at a public relations firm downtown, says North Korea is always in the back of her mind.
> 
> "We never know when and where the next attack is coming," she says.
> 
> Kim attends school near the command center for both the U.S. and South Korean militaries.
> 
> "I am only being half-serious here," she says, "if North Korea shoots a missile, my school would be within the area where they will strike first."
> 
> When Kim Jong Un became the leader of North Korea in late 2011, some South Koreans hoped he would be more reasonable than his predecessors. After all, he's young, was educated overseas and reportedly speaks at least some English. But Lee Hyun Woo, 25, who works in a duty free shop, is disappointed.
> 
> "I don't understand why he's acting this way," Lee says. "I did think he would be more open when he first took power, but now it seems he's actually going in the opposite direction."




If I can find the other interview I will post it up, but essentially the interviewee made an interesting point. When both Kim Il Sung and Kim Jung Il did the same crap during their reigns, they both always allowed themselves an "Off Ramp" or way out of the crisis  without going past the line of no return. But Kim Jong Un may end up painting himself into a corner because of his lack of experience, and poor advice from those around him..


----------



## BeyondTheNow

I am happy that the above article made mention of what the atmosphere is accurately like among South Koreans during this time. I think it's very easy for Westerners (and/or others) to envision a society preparing for the 'certainty' of war, if one is to believe many of the current news articles and broadcasts. (Not to insinuate that there isn't truth to them, but I've often wondered where the 'hype' truly begins and ends...)

My brother and his wife are living and working in Seoul right now and have been there for almost two years. They work alongside South Koreans from all walks of life and have developed close friendships with several.  Despite the media painting a very dismal view of what is taking place, it seems that largely, yes, it _is_ 'business as usual' and there ultimately is very little thought given to the "...rhetoric that has repeated itself before..."

I also maintain a few contacts from my own time there, and it seems to be the general consensus that while precautions _do_ need to be taken, there isn't nearly as much concern/worry about what is taking place right now as one might expect.

It is definitely an interesting situation on the whole, and no doubt the world is watching closely--which unfortunately is fueling the fire, so to speak.



			
				cupper said:
			
		

> Couple of interesting takes on the issue on NPR today.
> 
> *A View From South Korea: The North Is 'A Playground Bully'*
> 
> http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2013/04/09/176666103/a-view-from-south-korea-the-north-is-a-playground-bully


----------



## wannabe SF member

http://reuters.livestation.com/demo

Link to a Reuters livestream of the border if anyone's interested.


----------



## redtom

I went back to the start of this thread accidentally and thought I was reading the most recent posts until I realized we were talking about Il instead of Un. While it's good to know what a crazy guy is up to it doesn't pay to worry about him. 

Just my .05.

Edit: typo.


----------



## cupper

cupper said:
			
		

> If I can find the other interview I will post it up, but essentially the interviewee made an interesting point. When both Kim Il Sung and Kim Jung Il did the same crap during their reigns, they both always allowed themselves an "Off Ramp" or way out of the crisis  without going past the line of no return. But Kim Jong Un may end up painting himself into a corner because of his lack of experience, and poor advice from those around him..



Here is the second story I referenced in my earlier post:

*Admiral Says US Ready If North Korea Strikes*

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=176659843



> WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. defenses could intercept a ballistic missile launched by North Korea if it decides to strike, the top American military commander in the Pacific said Tuesday, as the relationship between the West and the communist government hit its lowest ebb since the end of the Korean War.
> 
> Amid increasingly combative rhetoric from Pyongyang, Adm. Samuel Locklear, commander of U.S. Pacific Command, said North Korea's pursuit of nuclear weapons and long-range ballistic missiles represents a clear threat to the United States and its allies in the region.
> 
> The admiral said Kim Jong Un, the country's young and still relatively untested new leader, remains unpredictable after using the past year to consolidate his power.
> 
> But Locklear told the Senate Armed Services Committee that he was confident that the U.S. military can thwart North Korea if it chooses to act. He made clear that any U.S. decision would be contingent on where the missile is headed, information that the U.S. could ascertain fairly quickly.
> 
> "Do we have the capability to intercept a missile if the North Koreans launch within the next several days?" Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., asked the admiral.
> 
> "We do," Locklear answered.
> 
> He said North Korea is keeping a large percentage of its combat forces along the demilitarized zone with South Korea, a position that allows the North to threaten U.S. and South Korean civilian and military personnel.
> 
> McCain said the saber-rattling of today struck him as the greatest tension between North Korea, South Korea and the U.S. since the end of the Korean War in the early 1950s.
> 
> "I would agree that in my recollection I don't know a greater time," the 58-year-old Locklear said.
> 
> Increasingly bellicose rhetoric has come from Pyongyang and its leader, with North Korea urging foreign companies and tourists to leave South Korea and warning that the countries are on the verge of a nuclear war.
> 
> At the White House, spokesman Jay Carney brushed off the North's declaration that nuclear war was imminent as "more unhelpful rhetoric" and part of a pattern of combative statements and behavior that Pyongyang's leadership has demonstrated for years. He said the U.S. was working with Seoul and Tokyo on the issue.
> 
> "It is unhelpful, it is concerning, it is provocative," Carney said.
> 
> Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Carl Levin, D-Mich., told Locklear that the North Korean government's threats "appear to exceed its capabilities, and its use of what capabilities it has against the U.S. or our allies seems highly unlikely and would be completely contrary to the regime's primary goal of survival."
> 
> "Nonetheless, its words and actions are not without consequences," Levin said.
> 
> The Democrat questioned the Obama administration's decision to delay a long-scheduled operational test of an intercontinental ballistic missile amid the North Korea rhetoric.
> 
> Locklear said he agreed with the decision to delay the test.
> 
> "We have demonstrated to the people of the region, demonstrated to the leadership of North Korea, our ability and willingness to defend our nation, our people, our allies and our forward deployed forces," Locklear said, citing other steps the U.S. military has taken in recent weeks.
> 
> The U.S. has moved two of the Navy's missile-defense ships closer to the Korean peninsula, and a land-based system is being deployed to the Pacific territory of Guam. The U.S. also called attention to the annual U.S.-South Korean military exercise that included a practice run over South Korea by B-2 stealth bombers.
> 
> Levin mentioned that President Barack Obama recently talked to China's new president, Xi Jinping, about the U.S. efforts to deal with North Korea. Locklear said he has not had similar conversations with his Chinese counterparts.
> 
> In an exchange with Sen. Angus King, I-Maine, Locklear acknowledged a hotline connection between Washington and Beijing similar to what existed with Moscow during the Cold War, and said both sides need to move forward in continuing conversations.
> 
> Locklear told Levin that he would explore the possibility of making direct contact with his military counterparts in China and communicate with them the seriousness of the situation on the Korean peninsula.
> 
> Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va., insisted that North Korea's nuclear program could come to a "grinding halt" if China pressured Pyongyang.
> 
> Reflecting the uneasy relationship, Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., asked Locklear if he considers China a "friend or a foe." Locklear said neither.
> 
> "I consider (China), at this point in time, someone we have to develop a strategic partnership with to manage competition between two world powers," Locklear said.
> 
> *Locklear said Kim Jong Un has adopted pages from the playbook used by his father, Kim Jong Il, but his approach differs in a significant way. Kim Jong Un's father, as well as his grandfather, Kim Il Sung, made sure they had "off ramps" that gave them a way to exit a confrontation, particularly if the U.S. and its allies were willing to offer concessions. Kim Jong Un, Locklear said, appears not to have given himself channels that would help him ratchet down the tensions.
> 
> The admiral described Kim Jong Un as "an impetuous young leader (who) continues to focus on provocation rather than on his own people."*
> 
> The scope of Locklear's responsibilities as the top officer at Pacific Command extend beyond the Korean peninsula, and he told the committee that his command is closely watching the proliferation of submarines among countries including China and Vietnam. Locklear said there are an estimated 300 submarines being operated around the world, although he noted that no country there has an undersea force as capable as the United States'.
> 
> Both Russia and China are expected soon to deploy new ballistic missile submarines capable of threatening the United States, Locklear said. India is also expanding its submarine force, and Australia, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, and South Korea have launched, or soon will, modern submarines.


----------



## Edward Campbell

The _National Post_ has published an interesting graphic about the DPRK's conventional forces. It is far too large to reproduce here!

But, bear in mind, please, that numbers, even HUGE numbers of ships, aircraft, tanks and howitzers means little if there is no fuel, ineffective logistics, poor maintenance and indifferent training.


----------



## Dissident

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> The _National Post_ has published an interesting graphic about the DPRK's conventional forces. It is far too large to reproduce here!
> 
> But, bear in mind, please, that numbers, even HUGE numbers of ships, aircraft, tanks and howitzers means little if there is no fuel, ineffective logistics, poor maintenance and indifferent training.



All I see is a target rich environment. Sure, quantity has a quality of its own and 3500 tanks sounds pretty nice, but when some of them are reportedly T55, jeez.


----------



## Danjanou

NinerSix said:
			
		

> All I see is a target rich environment. Sure, quantity has a quality of its own and 3500 tanks sounds pretty nice, but when some of them are reportedly T55, jeez.



T-55s, most of those appear to be WW2 vintage T-34/85s. Don't see thsoe much outside of museums and/or movies these days.


----------



## Chelomo

Taken from: http://www.lapresse.ca/debats/votre-opinion/201304/09/01-4639183-kim-jong-un-fin-renard.php

Sorry the article is in french, but I will provide a link to a (very) rough translation in english at the end: 



> *Publié le 09 avril 2013 à 16h40 | Mis à jour le 09 avril 2013 à 16h40
> Kim Jong-un, fin renard?*
> 
> ROCH BLIER
> L'auteur est un globe-trotter qui fait présentement le tour de l'Amérique du Sud.
> 
> Kim Jong-un est-il aussi fou qu'il le laisse paraître ou use-t-il de moyens extraordinaires pour amorcer une révolution dans son pays et ainsi le faire entrer dans le XXIe siècle?
> 
> À la lumière de ce que je lis dans les journaux, il m'apparaît plausible que l'homme fort de la Corée du Nord, un jeune homme qui a étudié en Suisse, donc sans doute au diapason de sa génération et à coup sûr conscient du retard de son pays par rapport au reste du monde, ait concocté un plan plutôt intelligent afin de contourner les deux obstacles infranchissables à tout changement dans son pays.
> 
> Le premier: l'armée. À sa tête: les dinosaures du régime, les purs et durs, ceux de la vieille école. Des cerveaux lavés par les principes du vieux régime et avec lesquels toute négociation de réforme ou de changement est vaine.
> 
> Le deuxième: la Chine. Seul allié du régime, partenaire économique indispensable, il est impensable de faire évoluer le pays vers les valeurs démocratiques, économiques et humaines, telles qu'on en retrouve en Suisse, par exemple, sans risquer que la main qui nous nourrit nous prenne à la gorge.
> 
> Bref, le défi de Kim Jong-un est énorme, et ne se relève pas en confrontant ces deux ennemis. Lui reste donc les jeux politiques: la ruse, la manipulation et la finesse.
> 
> En bravant les États-Unis et la communauté internationale, en menaçant la planète entière d'une guerre totale, il démontre qu'il n'a pas froid aux yeux et se met ainsi dans la poche les têtes dirigeantes de l'armée.
> 
> Cette menace, qui n'aboutira jamais à un conflit armé, se soldera par la conclusion que la Corée du Nord est un régime beaucoup trop irresponsable pour posséder l'arme nucléaire. Une intervention d'ingérence dans les affaires nord-coréennes, de la part de la communauté internationale, sera alors inévitable, et du coup, le pays vient de se débarrasser de la mainmise chinoise.
> 
> La table est mise pour une révolution tranquille, à saveur européenne et/ou nord-américaine. En jouant le jeu de la victime qui priorise la sécurité de ses citoyens, Kim Jong-un conservera l'appui de son armée, la confiance de son peuple, et donc son pouvoir, tout en s'avouant, aux yeux de la Chine, impuissant face à l'invasion du modernisme.
> 
> La visite d'Eric Schmidt, patron de Google, peu avant les événements récents, n'est sans doute pas étrangère au plan de Kim Jong-un. Bien conscient du pouvoir de l'internet, tel que le printemps arabe nous l'a démontré, le web est la voie de l'ouverture du peuple nord-coréen sur le reste du monde. Or si La Presse a intitulé son article: «Que fait le patron de Google au pays de l'internet verrouillé?», le mystère risque de se «déverrouiller» avant longtemps ...
> 
> Tout ce scénario est peut-être une fabulation, mais je trouve les coïncidences assez frappantes entre un jeune homme qui a étudié dans un des pays les plus démocratiques au monde, pour ensuite se retrouver à la tête de la dictature la plus fermée au monde.
> 
> La visite mystérieuse d'un baron de l'internet, de sa fille, et d'un ancien diplomate états-unien (Bill Richardson), et l'absurdité, peu de temps après, de la menace d'une guerre nucléaire contre la première puissance au monde. Sans oublier le fait que ce jeune homme a aussi démontré une certaine ouverture aux valeurs nord-américaines, en invitant son ami Dennis Rodman (ancienne vedette de la NBA), à regarder un match de basketball avec lui à Pyongyang. Kim Jong-un, fin renard?



Here's the link to the translation: http://www.1stmarineraiders.com/index.php?showtopic=22624

It's not very good, but it does the job.


----------



## dapaterson




----------



## Edward Campbell

Here is a video of former Australian Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd on North Korea and China. You don't have to agree with Mr Rudd, but he does have some (considerable) interest and knowledge about the region. I disagree, for example, with his assertion that China favours a divided Korea, but I do agree with him that Xi Jinping is off to a good start as Paramount Leader. His prescriptions for America and China are interesting.


----------



## CougarKing

link



> *North Korea can launch nuclear missiles - U.S. spy agency*
> Reuters
> 
> By David Alexander, Christine Kim and Narae Kim
> 
> WASHINGTON/SEOUL (Reuters) - *North Korea has the ability to launch nuclear-armed ballistic missiles, although they would likely be unreliable, a Pentagon spy agency has concluded, as the United States and South Korea kept watch on Thursday for a missile test-launch by Pyongyang.
> 
> The Defence Intelligence Agency study, dated last month, appeared to be the first time the agency had reached such a conclusion.*
> 
> "DIA assesses with moderate confidence the North currently has nuclear weapons capable of delivery by ballistic missiles, however the reliability will be low," said Republican U.S. Representative Doug Lamborn, who disclosed the conclusion during a congressional hearing on Thursday.
> 
> Lamborn said the agency reached the conclusion in a mostly classified March 2013 report. He did not say what range the nuclear-capable North Korean missiles might have.
> 
> General Martin Dempsey, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, declined to comment when asked if he agreed with that assessment, saying he had not seen the report.
> 
> *The strong consensus inside the U.S. government is that North Korea does not yet have a nuclear device that would fit longer-range missiles which conceivably could reach U.S. territories.*
> 
> Despite recent threats to attack U.S. bases and the South, North Korea started to welcome a stream of visitors for Monday's celebrations marking the birthday of its founder Kim Il-sung.
> 
> U.S. President Barack Obama said the United States would work diplomatically to reduce tensions with North Korea, while warning that Washington would take "all necessary steps" to protect America and its allies.
> 
> Obama met at the White House on Thursday with U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, who called for China and other nations with influence over North Korea to help calm the situation.
> 
> *North Korea has stationed as many as five medium-range missiles on its east coast, according to defence assessments by Washington and Seoul, possibly in readiness for a test-launch that would demonstrate its ability to hit U.S. bases on Guam.
> 
> "There are signs the North could fire off Musudan missiles any time soon," an unnamed intelligence source in Seoul told Yonhap news agency.*
> Most observers say Pyongyang has no intention of starting a war that would likely bring its own destruction, but they warn of the risks of miscalculation on the highly militarised Korean peninsula.
> 
> (Additional reporting by Jack Kim and Daum Kim in SEOUL, Sui-Lee Wee in BEIJING, John Ruwitch in SHANGHAI, and Patricia Zengerle, Mark Hosenball and Jeff Mason in Washington; Writing by Peter Cooney, Editing by Jim Loney)


----------



## Edward Campbell

This report is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from _The Economic Observer_, a privately owned Chinese weekly newspaper:

http://www.eeo.com.cn/ens/2013/0412/242472.shtml


> China Puts the Brakes on Rising Korean Peninsula Tension
> 
> 2013-04-12
> 
> *Summary*：The position of China's new Foreign Minister is the consistent stance of the Chinese government, namely, solving the problem through negotiation, promoting the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula
> and maintaining its peace and stability. But at the same time, Wang's statement that "Beijing opposes any provocative words and actions from any party in the region and does not allow troublemaking at
> the doorsteps of China" is quite interesting.
> 
> _By Sun Xingjie_ (孙兴杰)
> Apr 8, 2013
> Economic Observer Online
> _Translated by Laura Lin_
> 
> On Apr 6, China's new Foreign Minister Wang Yi (王毅) discussed the North Korean situation on the phone with UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon.
> 
> Wang made China's stance quite clear: it will not allow "troublemaking" at its doorsteps. This is the toughest talk to date from the Chinese government, and its intention is clear: to defuse North Korea's provocations.
> 
> Over the past month, North Korea has continuously ramped up its bellicose rhetoric to test the international community's bottom line.
> 
> First it cancelled both its 60-year-old armistice agreement as well as its hotline and nonaggression pact with South Korea. Then it announced it was in a "state of war" with South Korea and warned that any provocation by Seoul and Washington would trigger a nuclear-war. It then positioned its forces to attack U.S. military bases in the Pacific – Guam and Hawaii – and restarted its Yongbyon nuclear facility.
> 
> North Korea has become the focus of global media attention. Even the Cuban revolutionary leader Fidel Castro wrote a column urging North Korea to use restraint and to refrain from embarking on nuclear war. Obviously the threat of a Korean war has reached the bottom line of world peace.
> 
> As North Korea's close neighbor, it is not possible for China to stay out of this. And as a global power it's obligated to mollify this escalating bellicose rhetoric.
> 
> Wang's position is the consistent stance of the Chinese government, which is solving the problem through negotiation, promoting the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and maintaining its peace and stability. But at the same time, Wang's statement that Beijing "opposes any provocative words and actions from any party in the region and does not allow troublemaking at the China's doorstep" (反对任何一方在这一地区的挑衅言行，不允许在中国的家门口生事) is quite interesting.
> 
> Who is "provoking" the crisis on the Korean Peninsula? The recent escalation started after North Korea launched a rocket and carried out a third nuclear test. As a consequence, the UN Security Council voted in favor of sanctions against North Korea, who responded by adopting an even tougher stance and threatening the U.S.-South Korean military alliance with preemptive nuclear strikes.
> 
> Objectively, North Korea's crude nuclear devices and rockets do not constitute a threat to the U.S., though it does pose a certain threat to South Korea and Japan. However, war is not a trifling matter. The fact that the U.S. has deployed its most advanced fighter jets and warships to the region has further escalated the conflict.
> 
> The boundary between the one provoking the crisis and the one who is being provoked is blurred.
> 
> China is worried that a mistake in this war of intimidation could lead to a real war.
> 
> *Focus on War Not Peace*
> 
> China, by saying it is opposed to "troublemaking at its doorsteps" (在中国的家门口生事) is stating explicitly that it will not accept a second Korean War.
> 
> The Korean War was the product of the Cold War. The most important issue for China today is to cross the "middle-income trap" and realize its goal of a Chinese Dream.
> 
> Chinese President Xi Jinping said in the opening speech at the Bo'ao Forum for Asia, this week that no one should be allowed to throw a region, and even the whole world, into chaos for selfish gains.
> 
> North Korea has been pursuing its "Songun Military First" policy for nearly 20 years. This policy prioritizes the army and military spending over the rest. Meanwhile, its economy is stagnating and its people are experiencing none of the development and improvements in quality of life that the rest of Asia and the world have been experiencing.
> 
> Though Kim Jong-un says he plans to develop his country's nuclear force parallel to economic construction, by restarting the mothballed Yongbyon nuclear facility while closing down the Kaesong industrial park, it's evident that North Korea is putting the focus on war rather than on peace.
> 
> For a regime with a closed economy that neglects its population, economic sanctions are not going to be effective. It will be like asking a skinny person to stay thin – it won't be difficult for them.
> 
> The way forward for the Korean Peninsula lies in multilateral negotiations, as advocated by Foreign Minister Wang when he called for the "restoration of six-party talks and to bring the issue back to the track of dialogue."
> 
> The fact that North Korea unilaterally ended the Korean Armistice Agreement and reactivated its nuclear facilities not only disregards the fact that China is one of the signatories of the armistice agreement, it also kicks out the legs from below the six-party talks table.
> 
> Kim Jong-un's personal message to Dennis Rodman that he would like President Obama to give him a call was his attempt at establishing a bilateral U.S.-North Korea relationship to show that North Korea is on "equal footing" with the world's most powerful country.
> 
> By insisting on six-party talks Wang quickly extinguished Kim's dream of dealing with the U.S. alone.




As befits a newspaper that aspires to be China's version of the authoritative _Financial Times_ (the print edition is on salmon coloured paper), the article sees the issue through the lens of China's overarching objective of crossing "the "middle-income trap" and [realizing] its goal of a Chinese Dream."

But this quote from Foreign Minister Wang Yi (王毅) is interesting: "[China] opposes any provocative words and actions from any party in the region and does not allow troublemaking at the China's doorstep" (反对任何一方在这一地区的挑衅言行，不允许在中国的家门口生事). Assuming that is an accurate translation then it looks like Wang's expression of China's position allows little _wiggle room_ for the DPRK. But the expression about "troublemaking on China's doorstep" may also be a thinly veiled warning to ROK president Park and US President Obama that any retaliation for any DPRK action must be very carefully measured.


----------



## muskrat89

This report is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/391376/North-Korea-states-nuclear-war-is-unavoidable-as-it-declares-first-target-will-be-Japan

North Korea states 'nuclear war is unavoidable' as it declares first target will be Japan  


> In a commentary carried by the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), the communist country lashed out at Tokyo's standing orders to destroy any missile heading toward Japan, threatening such actions will result in a nuclear attack against the island nation.
> 
> If Japan executes its threat to shoot down any North Korean missile, such a “provocative” intervention would see Tokyo — an enormous conurbation of 30 million people — “consumed in nuclear flames”, KCNA warned.


----------



## Kat Stevens

Can't we just shove a 20kt tactical nuke up his tailpipe and do the whole planet a favour?


----------



## Jarnhamar

muskrat89 said:
			
		

> This report is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act
> 
> http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/391376/North-Korea-states-nuclear-war-is-unavoidable-as-it-declares-first-target-will-be-Japan
> 
> North Korea states 'nuclear war is unavoidable' as it declares first target will be Japan



Am I reading that right?

If North Korea fires a  missile towards Japan and Japan shoots it down then North Korea will get angry and shoot nuclear missiles at them?

Is North Korea just killing anyone on their staff who puts their hand up and says "okay guys, we're being retarded"?


----------



## CougarKing

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> The _National Post_ has published an interesting graphic about the DPRK's conventional forces. It is far too large to reproduce here!
> 
> But, bear in mind, please, that numbers, *even HUGE numbers of ships, aircraft, tanks and howitzers means little if there is no fuel, ineffective logistics, poor maintenance and indifferent training.*



True. Nuclear or chemical-biological warfare aside, would it be an overstatement to say that it will be an"shooting gallery" for US-South Korean forces if the war is purely conventional?

Even if the DPRK unleashes a devastating, opening artillery barrage that levels Seoul, the follow-up conventional actions will still see North Korean troops as little more than cannon fodder for imminent US-Allied air superiority and better-equipped, better-trained ground troops.


----------



## 63 Delta

Would it really be a shooting gallery though... Do you not see some similarities between North Korea, and Japan late in WW2? The US has a supremacy in every way, but still took heavy casualties at every battle. Especially if the North Korean soldiers are even half as fanatical as the Imperial Japanese army was.

I realize the US and allies steamrolled Iraq twice, but the Iraqi army was poorly trained and had low moral for the most part. As well Iraq had favorable terrain for maneuver warfare. Would the terrain of North Korea allow the same type of advantage to the US and Koreans?


----------



## Jarnhamar

If Americans feel their security is at stake due to North Korea's nuclear threat I would imagine they would be less concerned with feel happy rules of engagement and more interested in removing the threat with as much violence as required.


----------



## The Bread Guy

S.M.A. said:
			
		

> link
> 
> 
> 
> North Korea can launch nuclear missiles - U.S. spy agency
> Reuters
> 
> By David Alexander, Christine Kim and Narae Kim
> 
> WASHINGTON/SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korea has the ability to launch nuclear-armed ballistic missiles, although they would likely be unreliable, a Pentagon spy agency has concluded, as the United States and South Korea kept watch on Thursday for a missile test-launch by Pyongyang.
> 
> The Defence Intelligence Agency study, dated last month, appeared to be the first time the agency had reached such a conclusion.
> 
> "DIA assesses with moderate confidence the North currently has nuclear weapons capable of delivery by ballistic missiles, however the reliability will be low," said Republican U.S. Representative Doug Lamborn, who disclosed the conclusion during a congressional hearing on Thursday ....
Click to expand...

A broader assessment from the Director of National Intelligence:


> In (yesterday)’s House Armed Services Committee hearing on the Department of Defense budget, a member of the committee read an unclassified passage in a classified report on North Korea’s nuclear capabilities.  I concur with the earlier Department of Defense statement that “*it would be inaccurate to suggest that the North Korean regime has fully developed and tested the kinds of nuclear weapons referenced in the passage*."  I would add that the statement read by the Member is not an Intelligence Community assessment.  Moreover, *North Korea has not yet demonstrated the full range of capabilities necessary for a nuclear armed missile*.


----------



## Jarnhamar

China doesn't want anyone to go to war.  They're  too busy making money. 

Pick up 10 items in your house and see how many are made in China.

I just picked up my logitech mouse but couldn't find where it was made.
2nd thing I picked up was my laptop-made in china.
3rd thing I picked up a digital blood pressure monitor, made in China.
4th thing, Garmin Oregon 450T GPS- made in Taiwan.
5th thing, little peoples princess castle-made in China.
6th thing, my little pony horse-made in China.
7th thing, kitchen chair- made in Vietnam
8th thing, round wooden table-made in China.
9th thing, New Balance minimus 4mm shoes- made in China.
10th thing,Blue notes jeans- made in China.

Edit: mouse was made in China.


----------



## kevincanada

ObedientiaZelum said:
			
		

> Am I reading that right?
> 
> If North Korea fires a  missile towards Japan and Japan shoots it down then North Korea will get angry and shoot nuclear missiles at them?
> 
> Is North Korea just killing anyone on their staff who puts their hand up and says "okay guys, we're being retarded"?



Using Google maps, Seoul is approx 200 km away from Pyongyang,  Tokyo is approx 1200 km away with a big open body of water.  Don't mind my ignorance on North Korea,  I have always known it is a rogue state.  Although I do have a great deal of learning about them still.   Attacking Tokyo just appears silly to me unless it is a distraction, but then to say that as a distraction also appears to be poorly thought through.

I can't seem to find any logic in it looking for arguments for or against if Pyongyang is telling the truth or lying to use Japan as a initial threat.  I understand that nations use propaganda.  I'm a amateur and I'm not fooled....

I guess my question is why issue erratic and possibly baseless threats?  Of course this all assumes that Kim Jong-Un is logical and not suicidal.  He has to know war with the south will likely end with his own demise.  So why even go there...


----------



## Kat Stevens

Because little megalomaniacs like him aren't afraid to die, they're just afraid to die alone, so if he takes a couple million down the shitter with him, job done.  To quote Alfred the Prophet "some men just want to watch the world burn."


----------



## CougarKing

The current balance of power on the Korean Peninsula can be seen in one neat graphic from the _National Post_. Note that while the graphic states the North Korean Army has about 4.7 million reservists, other news websites say that their reserves could be as many as 8 million.


----------



## midget-boyd91

S.M.A. said:
			
		

> The current balance of power on the Korean Peninsula can be see in one neat graphic from the _National Post_. Note that while the graphic states the North Korean Army has about 4.7 million reservists, other news websites say that their reserves could be as many as 8 million.



Saddam had a huge army in the lead up to Desert Storm as well. They had better equipment than the DPRK and still surrendered en masse. And that was on a full stomache with functioning rifles.


----------



## CougarKing

uncle-midget-Oddball said:
			
		

> Saddam had a huge army in the lead up to Desert Storm as well. They had better equipment than the DPRK and still surrendered en masse. And that was on a full stomache with functioning rifles.



If you read my reply to Mr. E.R. Campbell's post on the previous page, you would see that I was aware that numbers are just one factor to determining whether a military force wins a battle. Training, logistical reach and equipment are others.


----------



## mba2011

This could explain the whole situation.....


http://www.duffelblog.com/2013/04/kim-jong-uns-wife-if-i-finally-give-you-head-will-you-stop-this/

-Edited when it was pointed out I was replying to a 8 year old post.-


----------



## SKBD

A really good book I would like to promote to those interested in North Korea and their problematic nature is called "The Impossible State: North Korea, Past and Future" written by Victor Cha. 

Victor Cha is the former director for Asian affairs at the National Security Council in the United States of America. He has accompanied white house representatives to North Korea and it is evident in his book. That is, his writing has an ethnographic tone and there are a number of interesting anthropological facts that keep the book quite intriguing (for me anyways). 

He writes about North Korea's international relations (specifically with China, Russia, U.S.A., South Korea, and to a lesser extent Japan), the "bizarre personality cult leadership" (Kim-Il Sung, Kim Jong-il, and Kim Jong-un), how their current economic collapse came about, the maltreatment of the general population, military balances that have maintained peace on the Korean peninsula since the Korean War, and of course the nuclear program and the diplomacy efforts to denuclearize North Korea. 

Anyways I thought I would just give everyone a heads-up on a good read!


----------



## CougarKing

Nemo888 said:
			
		

> Some analysts say China wants reconciliation to destroy South Korea's economy.



Would you please be more specific when you say "some analysts"??? Something tells me you're just making assumptions simply because South Korea and China were adversaries during the Korean War and most of the Cold War.

And why would these "analysts" say that when China has arguably a greater interest in South Korea than in North Korea? For example trade between both countries has increased 35 times since relations were normalized between Seoul and Beijing in the early 1990s, "rising from $6.37 billion in 1992 to $220.63 billion in 2011." (Source: Council of Foreign Relations) If you attend one of the language programs in Beijing and study Mandarin like the waves of other foreigners there, you will see South Koreans as among the numerous students; they often learn it faster seeing how much influence China has had on the Korean peninsula for centuries, including the adaptation of Chinese characters, which the Koreans call "Hanja", aside their own written language. 

In China, you will even find evidence of South Korean influence as far into the Chinese heartland as Chengdu, where they even have their own consulate to support the number of Koreans working there and the number of South Korean companies investing in the twin industrial cities of Chengdu and Chongqing.

Take note of Mr. E.R. Campbell's post a few pages back:



			
				E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> I think what Beijing does is opaque; what Beijing thinks is even more obscure.
> 
> Beijing, I believe, broadly supports any and all efforts to discomfit the USA and, to a lesser degree, Japan. The Chinese goal, in my opinion, is to expel the Americans from the Asian mainland and to shake Japan's and South Korea's faith in America's promises. *I think that China is vehemently opposed to any significant military action against South Korea. South Korea, like Japan, is a major source of both investment and managerial know how for China,* and, as always, China is conscious of the impact of its (or the DPRK'd) actions on Taiwan. Thus, while China tolerates, even cooperates in developing the DPRK's missile and nuclear technology, it will not, I suspect, tolerate any military action much beyond sinking a South Korean patrol boat or shooting down a ROK aircraft.



And from here:



			
				E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> China: an exasperated rich uncle to North Korea. *It wants and is willing to help pay for 1) a reunified and prosperous Korea, under Seoul's leadership, that is friendly to China, and 2) a withdrawal of US military forces from the Korean peninsula*. But, for the time being, it is content to see as high state of tension *provided there is no danger of war*. Despite media reports there is no official word that the Chinese are building up forces near North Korea and there are plenty of reasons to think that they would not do that - fear of triggering further DPRK madness being just one; and



Nemo, thus your assumption above about China wanting to destroy South Korea's economy makes NO SENSE.

--------------------------------------

Speaking of China, this latest move highlighted below show's Beijing's mutual interest with the US in a stable Korean peninsula:

From Reuters via Yahoo News



> *U.S., China agree on Korean denuclearization*
> 
> BEIJING (Reuters) - The United States and China agree that the Korean peninsula must be denuclearized, top diplomats from both countries said on Saturday.
> 
> U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and China's top diplomat, State Councilor Yang Jiechi, made the comments following meetings between the two sides in Beijing.


----------



## Nemo888

I was a voracious reader of North Korean refugees first hand accounts for a few years. Imagine dropping the responsibility for 24 million starving, technologically illiterate, people in need of the most basic medical services on your competitors system without even the basic infrastructure in place to deliver those services. Infrastructure as basic as roads and water in some places. North Korea is not rich enough to afford it and the liabilities outweigh the benefits.

Your argument would mean that because China now has the most English speakers in the world, is the USA's largest trading partner and creditor they must be bosom buddies. Destabilizing a countries economy can cut funds to a military giving you more influence as an example.


----------



## CougarKing

Nemo888 said:
			
		

> Your argument would mean that because China now has the most English speakers in the world, is the USA's largest trading partner and creditor they must be bosom buddies. Destabilizing a countries economy can cut funds to a military giving you more influence as an example.



How does China have more "influence" in South Korea by destroying their economy??? South Korea is a sovereign state with a modern military and wouldn't allow the PRC to exert any form of "gunboat diplomacy" against it.  South Korea has weathered many financial crises before such as the 1997 Asian Financial crisis- and that one did not put that much of a dent on South Korea's defence spending back then. And the ROK military is still one of the most modern, most professional militaries in the world (albeit one also kept large by mandatory conscription) 

Why would China want to destroy an economy in which they themselves have vested interests in?

And correction: you mean China has the most number of English as a Second Language students (ESL) in the world, not the most English speakers. The number of people in China learning English- 300 million- is ironically as large as the whole population of the United States. 

But your focus on language misses my point about the volume of trade and you even ignored Mr. Campbell's statements above. You neglect the vested, greater interests China has in South Korea- and which is greater than China's interests in its old protégé state, North Korea.


----------



## kevincanada

Economic, power and technology aside.

If China takes one side or the other they are going to anger nations on both sides of the fence.  How does China support the North when the USA supports the south? A war of that scale would make all economic arguments a mute point especially if nuclear weapons are involved.

Now say China supports the south,  they risk a nuclear strike from the north and upsetting other economic interests, trade with Russia, mid-east oil etc.
I am not surprised if China chooses the sidelines on this one.  Both choices appear to = China looses.  Or China maintains the status quote and possibly come out unharmed and keeps being a big brother to the north, and hopefully knock some sense into them.

Just my view, in no way I am saying I'm accurate.  Opinion only.


----------



## Edward Campbell

kevincanada said:
			
		

> Economic, power and technology aside.
> 
> If China takes one side or the other they are going to anger nations on both sides of the fence.  How does China support the North when the USA supports the south? A war of that scale would make all economic arguments a mute point especially if nuclear weapons are involved.
> 
> Now say China supports the south,  they risk a nuclear strike from the north and upsetting other economic interests, trade with Russia, mid-east oil etc.
> I am not surprised if China chooses the sidelines on this one.  Both choices appear to = China looses.  Or China maintains the status quote and possibly come out unharmed and keeps being a big brother to the north, and hopefully knock some sense into them.
> 
> Just my view, in no way I am saying I'm accurate.  Opinion only.




Please look at Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi's statement about which I posted earlier. The language is very strong in its warnings to all. Wang is, quite firmly and explicitly, telling the DPRK to not conduct military operations against the ROK, Japan or the USA. He is, somewhat more obliquely, telling the ROK and USA that, in the event of a DPRK violation, their responses must be measured, proportionate and must not threaten China.

Wang Yi comments are about as clear and as undiplomatic as I have heard from any Chinese official in memory.


----------



## a_majoor

Going back over some points:

Robert Kaplan predicted that when the North falls, the US and ROK will have to send military forces to seize WMD and prevent DPRK Generals from becoming local warlords (with nukes). China may join the effort to prevent a flood of DPRK refugees from entering China, protect her own interests but leave the bulk of the "dirty work" of stabilization and eventually reunification to the ROK, the US and to a lesser extent, Japan (mostly through financial aid). This is about 2/3 of the ideal Chinese soltion of a Greater Korea beholden to China and with American troops and influence removed; the US, ROK and Japan get embroiled in a "tar baby" for decades, providing stability and reconstruction. The resources are tied in place and reduce the ability of the three nations to exert influence and power elsewhere.

Infographics from NP:

http://news.nationalpost.com/2013/04/12/graphic-the-korean-peninsula-balance-of-forces/
http://news.nationalpost.com/2013/04/10/graphic-north-koreas-conventional-arms/
http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/02/13/graphic-dprk-intentions/


----------



## CougarKing

Meanwhile, Kim Jong Un checks out Japan's defences as well...  ;D


----------



## 57Chevy

This article shared with provisions of The Copyright Act shows the possibilities of radioactive fallout as the worst
consequence of war on the Korean peninsula but would not be coming from nuclear bomb strikes.

 Korean War Unlikely, But Risks for Russia Serious 

MOSCOW, April 9 (Alexey Eremenko, RIA Novosti) – Radioactive fallout from South Korean nuclear plants blown up by enemy saboteurs could be, for Russia, the worst consequence of a Korean war – should one happen, Russian analysts said.

“You could have five or six Chernobyls take place over a relatively small territory,” said Alexander Zhebin, who heads the Center for Korean Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences' Institute of Far Eastern Studies.

The worst nuclear disaster in history was also on the mind of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who said Monday that if events on the Korean Peninsula take a turn for the worse, it could make “Chernobyl…seem like child’s play.”
---
---
---
Six Chernobyls

If a new Korean war produces radioactive fallout, it is unlikely to come from nuclear bomb strikes, experts said.

North Korean ballistic missiles remain inefficient, said Vladimir Yevseyev, head of the Public Political Studies Center, an independent non-profit think-tank in Moscow.

Moreover, the country’s leadership is reluctant to violate the international taboo on nuclear attacks, Yevseyev said.

But in the meantime, sabotage or strikes by conventional weaponry against South Korea’s 23 nuclear reactors are highly likely, he said.

In that case, radioactive fallout could reach Russia’s Far Eastern Federal District, which has a population of 6.2 million, experts said.

Even if the nuclear threat is avoided, a war could boost the outflow of people leaving the economically depressed region, said Zhebin of the Center for Korean Studies. The Far Eastern Federal District lost 20 percent of its population between 1989 and 2013, according to official statistics.

A war would also see North Korean refugees, possibly including armed deserters from its 1.1 million-strong army, flee north to China and Russia, said Lankov of Kookmin University.

Finally, in the event that the United States joins the conflict – which is almost inevitable, given its 60-year-old military alliance with South Korea – stray American missiles may hit Russian or Chinese territory, Zhebin said. He cited as examples the Yugoslavian and Iraq wars, both of which saw US rockets hit the wrong targets or land far from their intended ones.

complete article and continuation at link...


----------



## CougarKing

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> But, bear in mind, please, that numbers, even HUGE numbers of ships, aircraft, tanks and howitzers means little if there is no fuel, ineffective logistics, poor maintenance and indifferent training.



What about the "fifth Columnists or infiltrators" and other unconventional units mentioned in the article below? If I can recall correctly that back in 1996, a North Korean mini-sub that was carrying some of these infiltrators had been found on the South Korean coast and a number of its crew were killed or captured.




> excerpts:
> 
> *Special North Korean amphibious units would land and strike these targets from the sea.*
> 
> *North Korea has 300 old Soviet-era AN-2 biplanes that carry 10 commandos each. Invisible to radar because they are made of fabric and hug the earth*, the AN-2's would air assault suicide squads into US and ROK airbases.
> 
> source:
> Eric S. Margolis is an award-winning, internationally syndicated columnist, writing mainly about the Middle East and South Asia. Comments: letters@thesundaily.com
> Sun Daily link


----------



## tomahawk6

Kim Jong Un is taking his marching orders from his aunt and uncle.He's the face of the regime at 27 and needs to be seen as up to the task.Right now its the same old game of racheting up the rhetoric and then victory was be announced and the game will abate for awhile.


----------



## CougarKing

article synopsis: A University of Texas professor argues for a strike against North Korea in a New York Times op-ed. Some US military planners are sympathetic to the idea, while others accuse him of being a warmonger.

link



> *Time for a preemptive strike against North Korea? Some say yes*
> 
> *At the office of the secretary of Defense in the Pentagon, a plan for a preemptive military attack on North Korea was being presented to “a small, grim group.”*
> 
> “The plan was impressive,” recalled an official who was at the presentation by US military strategists. “It could be executed with only a few days’ alert, and it would entail little or no risk of US casualties during the attack.”
> 
> *It was also designed to have a low risk of North Korean casualties*. But it allowed for some troubling contingencies.
> 
> “In particular, we wanted the plan to fully reflect that nuclear weapons were not the only weapons of mass destruction that North Korea had been working on. They clearly had chemical weapons, and their interest in biological weapons and ballistic missiles was also evident,” the official recalled. “We all knew that we were poised on the brink of a war that might involve weapons of mass destruction.”
> 
> The official was then-Secretary of Defense William Perry, and the year was 1994. He recounts the episode in a book he cowrote with Ashton Carter, who is now the No. 2 civilian at the Pentagon: *“Preventive Defense: A New Security Strategy for America.”*
> 
> Such an attack didn’t occur in 1994, but today, in the face of North Korea’s belligerence, some are suggesting that the Pentagon dust off its plans.
> 
> 
> “They have made a threat, and they have made a weapon – and it seems to me that is a legitimate reason for self-defense,” says Jeremi Suri, a professor of history and public affairs at the University of Texas, Austin.
> 
> “We don’t want the Iranians, or North Koreans, or anyone else thinking it’s not – and if we wait for the next threat, the damage could be far worse,” Dr. Suri argues. “The safest thing to do is to destroy this weapon on the launchpad.”
> 
> It is an argument that Suri made in a New York Times op-ed on Friday entitled, “Bomb North Korea, Before It’s Too Late.”
> 
> “President Obama should state clearly and forthrightly that this is an act of self-defense in response to explicit threats from North Korea and clear evidence of a prepared weapon,” Suri writes.
> 
> “And he should explain that this is a limited defensive strike on a military target – an operation that poses no threat to civilians – and that America does not intend to bring about regime change. The purpose is to neutralize a clear and present danger. That is all,” he writes.
> 
> Suri says that the feedback he has received on his piece has run the spectrum, from those who accuse him of being a warmonger to US military planners sympathetic to the idea.
> 
> “A lot are frustrated that we’re playing this game with North Korea every year,” he says.
> 
> *The consequences of a strike could be dire, Suri concedes. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un could decide, for example, to fire off some of the thousands of artillery rounds in his possession toward Seoul, South Korea, potentially killing tens of thousands of people.*
> 
> But there’s some likelihood that Kim will instead “save face at home by saying, ‘Look, we’re so important that they have to attack us’ and retaliate instead on a smaller scale,” Suri says.
> 
> This might include “trying to assassinate someone in South Korea or attacking an island” – in other words, one of the responses they have tried in the past.
> 
> “My belief is that if we take out this missile now, and we make it clear it’s an act of self-defense, the choice they have is face suicide or not respond,” Suri says. “I think they will choose not to commit suicide.”
> 
> Indeed, it might boil down “to being the best of bad options,” he says.
> 
> It is similar to an argument that Messrs. Perry and Carter recall making in their book.
> 
> “I went over the ‘talking points’ prepared by my staff, which sketched out how we should explain to the president the difficult choice he had to make,” they wrote.
> 
> As the assistant secretary of Defense for international security policy, Carter supported the development of the strike plan.
> 
> Perry decided to begin his briefing to the president with a statement attributed to John Kenneth Galbraith:* “Politics is not the art of the possible. Rather it consists of choosing between what is disastrous and what is merely unpalatable.”
> 
> “We were about to give the president a choice between a disastrous option – allowing North Korea to get a nuclear arsenal, which we might have to face someday – and an unpalatable option, blocking this development, but thereby risking a destructive non-nuclear war,” they wrote. “How had we gotten to this position?”
> 
> President Clinton was “within minutes of selecting and authorizing” a deployment option when the meeting was interrupted by a phone call from former President Carter, who had been dispatched to North Korea to negotiate on behalf of the United States. Kim Il-sung, then the aging leader of the regime, had agreed to negotiate*.
> 
> What will happen this time?


----------



## Edward Campbell

A US preemptive nuclear strike on the DPRK would *not* be seen, not by the Chinese in any event, as _"an act of self-defense"_. Rather, I suspect, the Chinese would see it as an unwarranted act of aggression by the USA and China would retaliate: diplomatic and economic retaliation, not military.


----------



## kevincanada

Some thoughts on North Korea I have not notice brought up.  The north has always been up and down with threats and behaving badly.  Lets say for arguments sake, Kim Jung-Un is done with the threats and puts his missiles back into storage and the USA backs off with the missile defense systems. Everyone anxiety drops from high to low and North Korea goes back to negotiations.  Where does it go from there?  While there is many issues to address three stick out like a sore thumb.

1. North Korea agrees to back down, gets foreign aid in return then fails to honour their end of the agreement (nuclear treaties for example)
2. Rogue state that has nuclear bombs.
3. The gulags, political prisoner retraining camps.

Items 1 and 2 seems to be fairly common knowledge, Item 3 I been reading about the gulags.  They appear to be similar to the camps of the holocaust.  Just with a different name, same end result.  Worked to death and torture, providing the newsprint I have read about them are indeed correct.

- A quick link to verify the papers have been reporting it from the National Post.
http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2013/02/28/jonathan-kay-a-look-inside-the-monstrous-north-korean-gulag-system-that-dennis-rodman-will-never-see/

- Gulag #22 location, requires google earth pluggin.  You can see it using their satellite images online. Go to google maps and punch in "Hoeryŏng, North Hamgyong, North Korea"

- From there look north east along the yellow highlight road about 5 kilometres.  You hit suspected check point,  then follow the road another 15km approximately and go north at the turn in the road then you hit the suspected prisoner camps.

Reading newsprint about Senator Kerry trip to South Korea, there is references they discussed the prisoners camp.  Senator Kerry even brought up the gulags in his Confirmation Hearing Statement, January 2013, found here http://www.cfr.org/us-election-2012/senator-john-kerrys-confirmation-hearing-statement-january-2013/p29874.


Back to my observation.  Military conflict tensions ease,  yet the North Korean atrocities continue,  with history showing no compliance on the North concessions in return for foreign aid.  Now that the political prisoner camps are coming to light.  What do we do if the Military standoff comes to a halt.  continued diplomacy with a nation that never honours their agreements? 

I guess the point I'm hopping to get across is; how does it end?  Has the North finally stepped over the line?  It seems like Kim Jung-Un has poked a sleeping bear in the eye with a stick, then cowardly says I'm going to do it again and again....

Anyway just trying to look at the situation from a different light.


----------



## GAP

China Sends A Nastygram To The Boy General
http://www.strategypage.com/qnd/korea/20130415.aspx  
April 15, 2013

 North Korea is again running one of its big extortion campaigns against the rest of the world. This is the biggest and boldest yet, with threats of nuclear weapon armed missiles being fired at Japan and other enemies. All this media theater has more impact the farther you get from North Korea. In the two Koreas it is pretty much business as usual. The planting season has begun in the north and that has ended the token military mobilizations (used as a media event to scare the foreigners). Most troops are now doing what they normally do this time of year, help with growing food. North Korea desperately needs this food, especially since reforms (incentives for farmers) in the last year appear to have worked and increased production a bit. That’s remarkable considering the growing fuel, fertilizer, and other shortages farmers have to deal with. The weather has been bad in many parts of the country for the last two years and there has been a noticeable increase in starvation related deaths and illness. Scaring foreigners does not help much if you are very hungry.

The implicit message in all the North Korean threats is that if someone offers some free food and fuel the aggressive messages would disappear. No one has stepped up and China has apparently quietly threatened cuts in aid if North Korea doesn’t quiet down. As these campaigns go, they usually end abruptly with the northerners declaring some kind of victory and that’s it. While it would be nice if all this theater produced some free stuff from fearful foreigners, Kim Jong Un could win inside North Korea without getting a payoff from the foreigners because he has shown his henchmen that the new boss can work the foreign media even more adroitly than daddy or grandpa.

China is angry at all this North Korean theater. The current barrage of threats from North Korea is upsetting Chinese trading partners and is bad for business. North Korean actions have caused a massive amount of international media speculation and FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt). While this is not much of a problem for China, which strictly controls its own media, it forces politicians in nations with a free press to respond to their anxious voters. This can lead to decisions that are not favorable for China. The most unfavorable such decision would be for Japan and South Korea to develop nuclear weapons. Both could do so quickly and would complicate Chinese foreign policy. Currently, Chinese diplomacy is backed up by the fact that China has nukes and that limits how far other nations can go in threatening China. That works both ways, and China tries to maintain reasonably good relations with South Korea and Japan because both nations are trading partners and tension and threats are bad for business. China may be a communist police state but the leadership remains in power only because they keep the economy growing. The neighbors know this and have not felt compelled to go through the political, economic, and diplomatic hassle of building their own nuclear weapons capability. But the current hysteria could force Japan and South Korea to go nuclear. China would lose a diplomatic edge and there would be an increase in the risk of someone actually using nukes.

China does not like to publicly criticize an ally and has been low-key in its public comments to North Korea over the current unpleasantness. But China has other ways to send a nastygram to the Boy General (one of the official nicknames for Kim Jong Un). China has ordered its Internet media operatives to say what they think about the Boy General. As a result, popular Chinese Internet personalities are saying what the government prefers not to say (that Kim Jong Un is a fat little dork, asshole, maniac, or whatever). Chinese Internet commentators are often local celebrities who are allowed to spout on their website or microblog (the tightly controlled Chinese version of Twitter) as long as they do not say anything the government censors do not approve of. The Chinese people understand how this works and know which blog posts are crap and which are sincere. The jabs at the Boy General are largely sincere, with the posters saying what a lot of Chinese think about North Korea.

Yet China is unwilling, or unable, to actually replace Kim Jong Un. Since the Cold War (and Russian subsidies that kept the economy afloat) ended in 1991, China has picked up some of the slack. China has become unhappy with the incompetent leadership in North Korea, as the Kim dynasty refuses to undergo the kind of economic reform that has kept the Chinese Communists comfortably in power. Staging a coup in North Korea has always been a possibility but the paranoid (for good reason in this case) North Korea leadership has made it difficult for China to recruit enough North Korean officials to make this feasible. That said, the potential is still there and China could still go this route.

Many North Koreans believe that the Chinese will take over if it appears that the North Korean government is about to fall apart. The Chinese plan to install pro-Chinese North Koreans as head of a new "North Korean" government and institute the kind of economic reforms they have been urging North Korea to undertake for over a decade. The Chinese do not want North Korea to merge with South Korea, nor do they want North Korea to collapse (and send millions of starving refugees into northern China). China and South Korea both want North Korea to stay independent and harmless. Thus, China is willing to unofficially annex North Korea, knowing that the South Koreans would go along with this as long as the fiction of North Korean independence was maintained. South Korea won't admit this but most South Koreans know that absorbing North Korea would put a big dent in South Korean living standards. That is more unpopular than any other outcome. While all Koreans would like a united Korea, far fewer are willing to pay the price.

The North Korean government has ordered a crackdown on the use of USB memory sticks to bring in Chinese and South Korean movies and TV shows. Many North Korean families have inexpensive Chinese DVD players (which are still legal) that have a USB port. Police have been ordered to go door-to-door to find homes with these DVD players and disable the USB capabilities. After that is done a sticker is placed over the USB port indicating that the change has been made. Police are making a lot of money selling the stickers without altering the USB port. 
more on link


----------



## CougarKing

When it comes to the article below, I agree that a unified Korea under ROK/South Korean leadership will not necessarily see a need for a continued American troop presence. Furthermore a unified Korea will eventually become more of an economic powerhouse that will dwarf the current ROK's economy in decades once the North's population and resources are fully integrated, much like the German reunification after 1989. Because of China's own trade and vested interests in the South, this will only further China's immediate goal of economic prosperity. While unified Korea may also be a rival to Beijing when it comes to becoming a regional power, both have an interest in regional stability as well.

Please note another, older thread posted before about the global influence a unified Korea may yield.



> *Must China Fear a Unified Korea?*
> 
> The recent crisis on the Korean Peninsula has once again brought to the fore China’s support for North Korea, which many deem vital for Pyongyang’s survival. In explaining this support analysts typically cite two factors: Beijing’s fear that the North Korean regime’s collapse will bring untold numbers of refugees across the border into China, and *Beijing’s fear of a unified, democratic, and pro-American Korea under Seoul’s leadership with a large U.S. troop presence stationed on the Sino-Korean border.*
> 
> These factors probably accurately reflect Beijing’s strategic calculus. However, although possible,* it’s not at all clear that a unified Korea under Seoul’s tutelage would in fact be as pro-American as Western and (presumably) Chinese policymakers assume*. A number of factors could undermine this assumption.
> 
> Read more...


----------



## CougarKing

An interesting perspective of North Korean-Chinese relations, comes from the Canadian owners of a café that operates on the Chinese side of the Yalu River! 

Globe and Mail link



> *Canadian café owners serve up coffee with a view of North Korea*
> 
> MARK MacKINNON
> 
> DANDONG, CHINA — The Globe and Mail
> 
> Published Tuesday, Apr. 16 2013, 8:53 PM EDT
> 
> Vancouverites own more than their share of coffee shops. But none of those java joints offers the front-row seat to unfolding international drama that you get at Peter’s Coffee House.
> 
> A 20 yuan (about $3) cup of cappuccino at Peter’s Coffee House comes with a view of the trucks that lumber each morning across the dark-metal frame of the Friendship Bridge that links this comparatively glittering corner of northeastern China to the greyness that is North Korea on the opposite bank of the Yalu River. Owners *Kevin and Julia Garratt, Vancouverites who have lived in China since 1984, serve cheesecake, coffee and Western breakfasts to Dandong’s tiny crowd of foreigners plus the growing number of tourists who come here hoping for a peek inside the Hermit Kingdom next door.*
> 
> These days, the bridge is a crucial indicator of how much support the paranoid regime of Kim Jong-un has left. North Korea has for weeks been threatening war against South Korea and its ally the United States, bringing tensions on the Korean Peninsula to their highest point in years.
> 
> *Even China, North Korea’s only remaining ally, has started to openly question the leadership in Pyongyang. Beijing supported tighter sanctions against its unpredictable friend after the Kim regime ignored its advice and detonated a nuclear device in February.
> 
> Despite those sanctions, Mr. Garratt said Tuesday that trade across the Friendship Bridge appears routine*. Business is also good in the Dandong supermarkets where North Koreans load up with Western and luxury goods. Some banking avenues have been shut, but it remains possible to send cash from accounts in China into Pyongyang.
> 
> *Still, drivers who cross the border every day say they’re no longer bringing in materials that could have a military use, and those who have helped fleeing North Koreans say there are tighter controls in place over who crosses the border.
> 
> Chinese trucks cross the Yalu each morning laden with everything from bags of rice and cans of cooking oil to new cars and kitchen appliances. Each afternoon, the trucks return empty. *  The North Korean side pays for the Chinese goods either with hard currency carried across the border by hand or with coal that is shipped into China by train.
> 
> “Last week we saw hundreds of trucks going in because [Monday] was the Day of the Sun,” the 52-year-old Mr. Garratt said, referring to the anniversary of the birth of North Korea’s founder, Kim Il-sung. “I think China has tightened up [since the sanctions], but you can’t really see that from here.”
> 
> *Dandong bustles with commerce, while across the water the North Korean city of Sinuiju sits silent and dark despite its designation a decade ago as a “special administrative region” where Chinese-style economic reforms were to have been introduced.*
> 
> The Friendship Bridge was closed Monday and Tuesday, but a line of trucks was already forming Tuesday afternoon at the customs office on the Chinese side of the border in expectation of crossing Wednesday. Some carried bags of rice, others refrigerators. Also in line to cross was a gasoline truck, five new Chinese-made BYD sedans, plus half a dozen construction vehicles.
> 
> *Traders say that what isn’t crossing, for now, is anything that could be seen as useful to the North Korean military.* “The sanctions are very serious,” said Qin, a 66-year-old truck driver who has been driving back and forth across the Friendship Bridge since the 1990s. “Before, things like chemical products and pipes and steel were very common. *Now, very few of these things are going across and the main products going in are fertilizer, washing powder, cooking oil, daily things. It’s all civilian trade. If there are any forbidden things, they have to be smuggled.”
> 
> As for luxury goods, which were specifically targeted by the new sanctions, those appear tougher to stop*. Truck drivers say luxury items never flowed in bulk across the Friendship Bridge, but rather were hand-carried into the country by North Koreans who came to shop in Dandong’s markets.
> 
> And in this shady frontier city – packed with spies, smugglers and missionaries – you can find whatever it is you’re looking for, if you have the money. The Chinese side of the Yalu River is lined with neon-advertised hotels, massage parlours and karaoke joints.
> 
> *Stores selling Apple products are a favourite stop for visiting North Koreans, as are shops selling big-screen televisions. Liquor outlets are also popular. *  “They come in here and buy red wines and brandy, the cheaper the better,” said a saleswoman in Tesco, a British supermarket chain that is famous in Dandong as the place North Koreans go to stuff their bags before returning home where such things are scarce and expensive.
> 
> Efforts to crack down on the flow of money into North Korea – where few besides those connected to the regime have hard-currency bank accounts – seem half-hearted.
> 
> *China made a show of closing the local branch of the Kwangson Bank (listed in United Nations’ documents as the Foreign Trade Bank) earlier this year after the United States designated it a “key financial node in North Korea’s weapons-of-mass-destruction apparatus.” But other banks in Dandong said they were still able to send cash directly to accounts in Pyongyang.* “We haven’t received notice to stop any of our services,” an employee of the China Construction Bank, which has known ties to the Kwangson Bank, told The Globe and Mail.
> 
> Since sanctions were tightened and the crisis began, one thing has changed:* It has become harder for those wishing to flee North Korea to leave. Christian groups involved in helping North Koreans escape into China, usually en route to South Korea, say that the security situation is such that they’ve largely had to suspend their efforts during the past two months.*
> 
> “Along the border between North Korea and China, there is much more security,” one Christian activist said. “In the past, you could bribe your way past the soldiers, but now, because of the security situation, they dare not allow anyone in or out.”


----------



## Nemo888

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> Kim Jong Un is taking his marching orders from his aunt and uncle.He's the face of the regime at 27 and needs to be seen as up to the task.Right now its the same old game of racheting up the rhetoric and then victory was be announced and the game will abate for awhile.



This makes no sense because the media inside DPRK is complete nonsense with no influence from actual world events. They are told things like they are sending food aid to other countries because a failing US has created a worldwide famine. This if for external consumption. It has no bearing on what goes on inside the DPRK. It is a show for the world. In a war the Kim's are as good as dead so obviously that is not the goal.

A former Chinese diplomat to Japan thinks that the only winner in this is the USA. They have a perfect excuse for the pivot to Asia now. I find his paranoia mildly appealing. Perhaps his crazy alcoholic aunt made a deal. It will be interesting to see how all this shakes out in a year or two.


----------



## CougarKing

Smoking gun evidence that they have a nuclear device?

link



> *Possible radioactive traces found from North Korea nuclear test*
> 
> Reuters
> 
> By Fredrik Dahl | Reuters – 12 hours ago.
> 
> VIENNA (Reuters) - *Radioactive gases that could have come from North Korea's nuclear test in February have unexpectedly been detected, a global monitoring body said on Tuesday, possibly providing the first "smoking gun" evidence of the explosion*.
> 
> But the April 9 measurement - almost two months after Pyongyang said it had carried out the underground detonation - gave no indication of whether plutonium or highly enriched uranium was used, it said.
> 
> The time that had passed before the so-called noble gases were picked up made it "very difficult" to distinguish between the two fissile materials, said spokeswoman Annika Thunborg of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organisation (CTBTO).
> 
> The isolated east Asian state is believed to have tested plutonium bombs in its previous two such blasts, in 2006 and 2009. Any switch to uranium would increase international alarm as it could enable Pyongyang to greatly expand its arsenal.
> 
> North Korea threatened nuclear attacks on the United States, South Korea and Japan after new U.N. sanctions were imposed in response to its latest atomic test. But U.S. officials have cast serious doubt on whether it could launch a nuclear missile.
> 
> Pyongyang's third nuclear test was registered virtually instantaneously via seismic signals around the world. But no radioactive traces that would have constituted conclusive proof were found in the immediate weeks afterwards.
> 
> The Vienna-based CTBTO, which has a worldwide network of monitoring stations, said in mid-March that it was highly unlikely any such radioactivity would be detected.
> 
> *But Tuesday's statement said it made a significant detection of radioactive noble gases two weeks ago in Takasaki, Japan, about 1,000 km (620 miles) from the test site. Lower levels were picked up at another station in Ussuriysk, Russia.
> 
> "Two radioactive isotopes of the noble gas xenon were identified, xenon-131m and xenon-133, which provide reliable information on the nuclear nature of the source," it said.
> 
> "Detection of radioactive noble gas more than seven weeks after an event is indeed unusual. We did not expect this and it did not happen in 2009," the CTBTO added, referring to the reclusive country's previous nuclear test.*
> 
> (...)


----------



## 57Chevy

Nuclear blast shakes town 


Radiation detected in Japan may be from North Korea nuclear test
 Herald Sun 24 Apr 

POSSIBLE radioactive traces from a North Korean nuclear test in February have been detected for the first time, 1000km away in Japan. 

The  Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) said it had detected isotopes "consistent with a nuclear fission event", The Japan Times reports.

"The ratio of the detected xenon isotopes (xenon-131m and xenon-133) is consistent with a nuclear fission event occurring more than 50 days before the detection," the CTBTO said.

"This coincides very well" with the North Korea’s announced nuclear test on February 12.

The detection at a monitoring station in Japan came 55 days after the explosion, The Japan Times reports.

The group said, however, that the discovery couldn’t help it answer the key question of whether Pyongyang used plutonium or uranium in the blast.

North Korea used plutonium in its 2006 and 2009 tests and any discovery that it used highly enriched uranium for its third test would mark a significant technological step for the impoverished and unpredictable regime.

It would also raise international concerns that North Korea might pass on weapons-grade uranium.

North Korea threatened nuclear attacks on the United States, South Korea and Japan after new U.N. sanctions were imposed in response to its latest atomic test. But U.S. officials have cast serious doubt on whether it could launch a nuclear missile.

Pyongyang's third nuclear test was registered virtually instantaneously via seismic signals around the world. But no radioactive traces that would have constituted conclusive proof were found in the immediate weeks afterwards.

It is also possible that the so-called radionuclides were from a nuclear reactor or other atomic activity, and the CTBTO said it is currently examining the traces to see whether this is the case.

It ruled out however that the source was the crippled Fukushima No.1 nuclear plant.

The detection was made in Takasaki, Gunma Prefecture, 1000 km from the North Korean test site. Lower levels were also picked up at Ussuriysk, Russia, one of several hundred sites worldwide reporting to the CTBTO.


(The Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organisation (CTBTO) was set up in 1996 with its headquarters in Vienna, Austria. It is an interim organization tasked with building up the verification regime of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) in preparation for the treaty's entry into force as well as promoting the treaty's universality.)

screengrab and videos at link. 

                                            Shared with provisions of The Copyright Act


----------



## Gringo2

> The group said, however, that the discovery couldn’t help it answer the key question of whether Pyongyang used plutonium or uranium in the blast.
> 
> North Korea used plutonium in its 2006 and 2009 tests and any discovery that it used highly enriched uranium for its third test would mark a significant technological step for the impoverished and unpredictable regime.
> 
> It would also raise international concerns that North Korea might pass on weapons-grade uranium.



I dont understand the uranium weapon grade thing... If i follow the explaination of a PhD he says that plutonium bombs are made after uranium. In the article they say that North Korea used plutonium bombs during their tests in 2006 and 2009. It would be very nice if someone explain me the new concern with this news.

Sources: http://ca.answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20090412190319AAK3h8m



> First let me straighten you out on plutonium and uranium. I have a PhD in nuclear physics, and built Nuclear weapons for a living. Plutonium is the by product of refined Uranium. Uranium is mined out of the ground, then processed into weapon grade plutonium, Uranium is not used in the nuclear device, it is plutonium which was used in both A bombs that were used in WWII. There are different grades of plutonium depending on how much refining is done to it. the more pure the uranium is refined into plutonium also determines the yield of explosive power that is produced when the the nuclear device is detonated. like the A bombs we used in Japan had a yield of 1 mega ton each. because the Technology has come so far we now have nuclear devices that have 65 kilo tons of energy.


----------



## ModlrMike

Natural uranium contains about 99% U238 and about 1% U235. Highly enriched uranium (HEU) is the most common form of nuclear weapons material, with 85% U235. Low enriched uranium (20% U235) is not generally a weapons grade material, but it can be used for a "dirty bomb". Plutonium (Pu94) has several isotopes, the most important for weapons is Pu239. Contrary to your citation, Fat Man was a U235 bomb, and Little Boy was a Pu239 bomb.


For more info, go here: http://nuclearweaponarchive.org/Nwfaq/Nfaq8.html#nfaq8.1.1


----------



## a_majoor

Gringo2 said:
			
		

> I dont understand the uranium weapon grade thing... If i follow the explaination of a PhD he says that plutonium bombs are made after uranium. In the article they say that North Korea used plutonium bombs during their tests in 2006 and 2009. It would be very nice if someone explain me the new concern with this news.
> 
> Sources: http://ca.answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20090412190319AAK3h8m



PHD guy is talking through his hat. Uranium can be enriched to produce weapons grade Uranium (as indicated above). Plutonium is one of the byproducts of nuclear fission in reactors, and can also be used for nuclear weapons. Generally speaking, if you have access to a pretty heavy duty industrial capability, you can build the machinery to enrich Uranium (a fairly involved process, as Iran discovered). If you have access to a nuclear reactor, you can use lower grade Uranium as fuel and process Plutonium from the spent fuel rods. This is also fairly intensive in resources and you should not try this at home.

The yeild of the weapon has to do with a huge number of factors, most of which have nothing to do with what sort of fissile material you use. Uranium was used in the "Little Boy" bomb over Hiroshima, and Plutonium used in the "Fat Man" bomb used over Nagasaki. Which material you use is pretty much a matter of choice or economics these days, either one will do just fine.

As for yeilds, the first weapons were @ 20 Kt each (20 Kilo tons = 20,000 tons of TNT)
The largest ever bomb was the Soviet "Tsar Bomba", with a yeild of 50 Mt (Mega tons = 50 million tons of TNT)
Most modern weapons are thought to be in the hundreds of Kilotons range, since more is not always better.


----------



## DBA

Fat Man was the more complex implosion design and used Plutonium.
Little Boy was the gun design and used enriched Uranium.

Out of the ground Uranium is 99.27% U238 and 0.72% U235. Increasing the % of U235 is called enriching which can be a little for reactor grade (3.5%) and a lot for weapons grade (90%+). Left behind is depleted Uranium which has a lower % than natural Uranium. It is U235 that is of use in Weapons. 

Plutonium can be produced in a nuclear reactor and consists of two main isotopes: P239 which is the one desired for weapons and P240 which hinders use in weapons due to it's high rate of spontaneous fission. Different production methods can reduce the % of P240 so it's below the 7% considered weapons grade.  The presence of P240 is what necessitated a faster rate of assembly over the U235 gun design. That faster rate was provided by the implosion design which being much more complex required testing before it could be reliably used.  Trinity was that test.


----------



## Edward Campbell

Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from _The Diplomat_, is an aptly titled article about China's North Korean dilemma:

http://thediplomat.com/2013/04/30/a-complex-calculus-chinas-north-korea-dilemma/?all=true


> A Complex Calculus: China’s North Korea Dilemma
> *It remains in Beijing’s self-interest to provide aid to Pyongyang. The alternatives, like a North Korean collapse, could be far worse.*
> 
> By Julia Famularo and Timothy Rich
> 
> April 30, 2013
> 
> It appears that China is growing exasperated with instability on the Korean Peninsula. Former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Kurt Campbell recently remarked that “The most important new ingredient [in the North Korean crisis] has been a recognition in China that their previous approach to North Korea is not bearing fruit. That they are going to have to be much clearer and much more direct with Pyongyang that what Pyongyang is doing is undermining Chinese security…. There is a subtle shift in Chinese foreign policy. You’ve seen it at the U.N., you’ve seen it in our private conservations… I don’t think that subtle shift can be lost on Pyongyang. It’s not in their strategic interest to alienate every country that surrounds them. I think they have succeeded in undermining their trust and confidence in Beijing.” U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Susan Rice similarly stated that the Chinese are   “very much of the view that Kim Jong-un has gone too far, and that this now is a situation that has the potential to directly threaten their interests in the region.”
> 
> In fact, China has already agreed to two rounds of sanctions, and China and North Korea have failed to hold high-level talks since December 2012. (It is nevertheless rumored that Chinese envoy Wu Dawei may soon travel to Pyongyang. Last week, Wu traveled to Washington to meet with Glyn Davis, his American counterpart, and pressed for a return to the six-party talks.) However, according to a report by the Council on Foreign Relations, China sees little of its nearly $6 billion in bilateral trade with North Korea affected by the UN sanctions, given that it characterizes the trade partnership as furthering economic development and humanitarian work. It also remains unclear whether China adequately enforces the existing sanctions regime. Yet, in a positive sign, South Korean Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se has reported that “we hear that China already instructed… local governments to implement the resolution… So, I think China is playing its role rather well.”
> 
> Speaking at the Boao Economic Forum for Asia on April 7, Chinese President Xi Jinping remarked that “The international community should advocate… [a] vision of comprehensive security and cooperative security, so as to turn the global village into a big stage for common development rather than an arena where gladiators fight each other. And no one should be allowed to throw the region, or even the whole world, into chaos for selfish gains.” Many observers viewed the comments as a direct reference to the escalating tensions on the Korean Peninsula. In a conversation with UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi similarly stated that the People’s Republic of China “oppose(s) provocative words and actions from any party in the region and do[es] not allow troublemaking on China's doorstep.”
> 
> Beijing University professor Wang Xinsheng, a Northeast Asia historian, argues that the president’s speech sent a “clear message” to the DPRK and was among the “toughest remarks” made by any Chinese leader to date. Yet, at the same time, other experts are arguing that recent government statements are also a warning to the United States and its allies. Minzu University Korean studies professor Huang Youfu argues that Washington and Tokyo have used tensions in Northeast Asia “as an excuse to deploy cutting-edge weapons” there. Tsinghua University Sino-American relations specialist Sun Zhe furthermore argues that the United States should not make unreasonable requests of China. Beijing cannot sever its economic ties with Pyongyang because the consequences would harm both countries. He believes that Washington should cease joint military exercises with Seoul and offer to negotiate directly with Pyongyang to reduce regional tensions. “[U.S. politicians] are asking China to do something very serious, and yet the U.S. government won’t make even a symbolic move like stopping military drills.”
> 
> China released its new defense white paper on April 16th. It accused the United States, without directly naming it, of causing greater tensions and instability in the Asia-Pacific region by bolstering military alliances and increasing troop numbers. American policy has stoked the territorial ambitions of the Japanese, Fillipinos, and Vietnamese, forcing China to confront “multiple and complicated security threats.” According to Chinese government spokesman Yang Yujun, “Certain efforts made to highlight the military agenda, enhance military deployment and also strengthen alliances are not in line with the calling of the times and are not conducive to the upholding of peace and stability in the region.”
> 
> Chinese Netizen Reactions
> 
> Following Pyongyang’s February nuclear test and more recent provocations, many Chinese netizens have voiced their opinions regarding their country’s continued support for North Korea. Supporters, detractors, and even the infamous 50-cent party have all weighed into the debate.
> 
> Prominent pundit and former Yahoo China executive Xie Wen took to his Sina Weibo microblog to call upon his government to dramatically change its policy toward the DPRK. Specifically, he said that “Beijing should sever the Sino-North Korean Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance; cease providing free aid; suspend military cooperation; recall the Chinese ambassador; expel North Korean citizens engaged in drug trafficking, arms trafficking, or counterfeiting; and refuse to provide preferential treatment to North Korea in the Chinese media.”
> 
> A Chinese lawyer also posted his frustrations online regarding illicit North Korean activities in China. Chi Suma lamented that some people still refuse to believe that the “Kim Dynasty” not only controls an illicit drug production and distribution network, but also overruns China’s three northeastern provinces with drugs. “So many families broken and people dead, and so many people sentenced to long jail time or the death penalty…. We give North Korea free rice and they give us drugs.”
> 
> A former Yunnan Province education official named Luo Chongmin remarked that only Chinese aid has hitherto prevented the DPRK from collapsing. “The aid helps to feed North Korea’s army and government, but starve its people.”
> 
> Many netizens likened the DPRK to a rabid canine. One commenter asked “I wonder if our government will do anything specific in response or to sanction North Korea’s dictator, other than protesting. If nurturing a tiger is to invite a calamity, what about nurturing a mad dog?” Similarly, another remarked that “Mao raised a dog to watch the door. Turns out the dog is crazy.”
> 
> However, it appears that the Chinese Communist Party still shows little tolerance for officials and members of the state-run media speaking out against its stance on the DPRK.    Deng Yuwen, the prominent political commentator and deputy editor of Central Party School journal Study Times, was suspended from his position after he wrote a critical article in The Financial Times. Deng argued that China should abandon Pyongyang and pursue unification of the Korean peninsula. Netizens nevertheless actively discussed his fate, demonstrating once again that despite draconian censorship, domestic microblogs remain an important way to disseminate information and discuss current events.
> 
> Official Chinese Attitudes Toward North Korea
> 
> Following the collapse of the USSR in 1991, Pyongyang lost a major communist ally and benefactor. Beijing then recognized Seoul the next year. Taken together, these events dealt harsh economic and psychological blows to the Kim Il-sung’s regime. Compounding North Korea’s sense of growing isolation and insecurity during the 1990s was the advent of South Korean democratization and its “economic miracle,” as well as the emergence of the United States as the world’s sole superpower. Although Pyongyang increasingly relied on Beijing for its survival, the regimes were no longer as “close as lips and teeth.” The trust deficit has continued to grow over time.
> 
> An editorial published in different state-media outlets directly after the third DPRK nuclear test in February attempted to explain North Korea’s recent actions. Although it was “unwise and regrettable” for Pyongyang to repeatedly defy UN resolutions and threaten international peace with its nuclear program, it argued that North Korean provocations are “deeply rooted in its strong sense of insecurity after years of confrontation with South Korea, Japan, and a militarily more superior United States. In the eyes of the DPRK, Washington has spared no efforts to contain it and flexed its military muscle time and again by holding joint military drills with South Korea and Japan in the region. The latest nuclear test is apparently another manifestation of the attempt of a desperate DPRK to keep threat at bay.” The editorial counseled all sides to continue to engage in dialogue and negotiations, using the six-party talks as a mechanism to defuse the crisis.
> 
> Conversely, a senior editor from The People’s Daily published a new editorial calling upon North Korea to follow the example of Myanmar. Ding Gang argues that Western sanctions on Myanmar “suffocated” its economy and increased its dependence on the People’s Republic of China. At the same time, China supplied Myanmar with aid and invested in its infrastructure, benefiting the local people. He cites these factors as the reasons why Myanmar finally reformed and opened up to the world. Calling the “revival” of Myanmar beneficial for China, ASEAN, and other countries in the region, he asserts that China should further encourage North Korea to reform and develop so that it may follow a similar path.
> 
> Beijing’s concerns over an unruly neighbor are nothing new. For many centuries, China has feared instability along its borders. The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea has served as a useful buffer state following the Korean War, putting distance between the People’s Republic of China and U.S. troops stationed in the Republic of Korea and Japan. It has remained in China’s advantage to defend against any major form of political, economic, or social instability in North Korea that could negatively affect China.
> 
> For example, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and a host of Western nations have criticized China for refusing to adhere to the international principle of non-refoulement. The 1951 Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees and its 1967 Protocol protect those who are “unable or unwilling to return to their country of origin owing to a well-founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group, or political opinion.” China refuses to recognize the rights of North Korean refugees. It labels them “economic migrants” and repatriates them to their home country, knowing full well that they face severe punishment. Yet, China does so because it fears that softening its stance on refugees could cause a flood of North Koreans to cross into its territory, triggering possible instability in both countries.
> 
> Many Western observers also wonder why China has remained hesitant to severely restrict aid to North Korea. Simply put, it remains in China’s own self-interest to provide humanitarian, economic, military, and energy assistance as well as push for limited market reforms. A severely weakened yet nuclear-armed North Korean regime could lash out in desperation and/or potentially collapse, which could also prompt North Koreans to pour across the Chinese border. Even worse, a major conflict or regime collapse could signal the return of American troops or allied forces above the 38th parallel, perhaps for years to come if the North is occupied or absorbed into a unified Korea under Southern control. China has long feared that the United States and its allies seek to encircle or contain China, and therefore wants to ensure the continued viability of the North Korean regime.
> 
> Thus, although Beijing has more leverage over Pyongyang than Washington, Georgetown Professor Victor Cha argues that the Chinese government is similarly “faced with the choices of rhetorical pressure, quiet diplomacy, and mild sanctions. As long as China continues to value stability on the peninsula more than it worries about a few nuclear weapons, it will not fundamentally change its policy towards its unruly neighbor.”




I know I'm repeating myself, but ... _"Many Western observers also wonder why China has remained hesitant to severely restrict aid to North Korea. Simply put, it remains in China’s own self-interest to provide humanitarian, economic, military, and energy assistance as well as push for limited market reforms."_


----------



## CougarKing

An update:

link



> *North Korea missiles moved away from launch site: U.S. officials*
> By Phil Stewart | Reuters – 8 hours ago.
> 
> WASHINGTON (Reuters) - *North Korea has taken two Musudan missiles off launch-ready status and moved them from their position on the country's east coast, U.S. officials told Reuters on Monday, after weeks of concern that Pyongyang had been poised for a test-launch*.
> 
> U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry warned North Korea last month that it would be a "huge mistake" to launch the medium-range missiles, but the prospects of a test had put Seoul, Washington and Toyko on edge.
> 
> One U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity, cautioned that the missiles were still mobile and the fact that they had been moved was no guarantee they would not be set up elsewhere and fired at some point.
> 
> (...)


----------



## CougarKing

It seems that assassination attempts on Kim Jong Un's life are more common that originally thought...

link



> *Did a Female North Korean Traffic Cop Save Kim Jong-un from Assassination?*
> 
> 
> ... that footage from the ceremony in Pyongyang in front of Ri's fellow officers and military personnel is really something. But the propaganda machine doesn't tell us much more about why this ordinary traffic policewoman received such a high honor — beyond those two very mysterious phrases: "unexpected circumstance" and "safeguarding the security of the headquarters." As Agence France Presse points out, traffic cops doing their job to the utmost capacity tend not to receive this prize from the state:
> 
> 
> The "Hero of the Republic" award is usually reserved for heroic acts during wartime, although it is also given to individuals who have made a major contribution to the country's advancement.
> 
> Recently, a large number were given to scientists and technicians involved in the North's long-range rocket launch in December and February's nuclear test.
> 
> Well, assuming this woman is not a secret nuclear rocket scientist hiding out in a police uniform, what could she have done to be honored for such an outstanding life during wartime? (It's pretty much always considered wartime in North Korea.) There's this, from her traffic cop boss, according to state TV: "Comrade Ri's action was not made possible by pure accident, but made possible because she had always harboured this longing for the respected leader day and night." And then comes the big juicy guess, from the secretary general of defector group NK Intellectuals Solidarity, speaking with the AFP:
> 
> 
> *"I suspect it might have been linked to an assassination attempt disguised as a traffic accident."
> 
> That same defector, Park Kun-Ha, said that someone of Ri's stature receiving this honor was "very rare." Turns out assassination attempts are not: Earlier this month, The Week reminded us that assassination attempts involving cars and staged accidents are far from unheard of in North Korea. *
> 
> Indeed, there was apparently an assassination attempt just last year involving a car, a secret North Korean agent in China, and the life of Kim Jong-nam — the oldest brother of Kim Jong-un whom the Supreme Leader doesn't like very much:  "South Korean officials claimed to have captured a North Korean agent who'd been ordered to kill Jong Nam by staging a car accident in China. Jong Nam fled Macau, and is now thought to be in hiding in Singapore," The Week's team wrote.
> 
> So could that woman breaking down above have foiled a similar plot against the young propagandist-in-chief himself? Or did Ri pull Kim Jong-un out of a burning Maybach with her gloved hands? Who knows? But your best guess is probably just as believable as some other North Korean propaganda out there.


----------



## CougarKing

Seems Pyongyang wants more attention again. 

link



> *North Korea breaks stretch of relative silence as it fires three missiles into eastern waters*
> 
> SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea fired three short-range guided missiles into its eastern waters on Saturday, a South Korean official said. It routinely tests such missiles, but the latest launches came during a period of tentative diplomacy aimed at easing tensions.
> 
> *The North fired two missiles Saturday morning and another in the afternoon, South Korean Defence Ministry spokesman Kim Min-seok said by phone. He said the North’s intent was unclear. His ministry said it is watching North Korea carefully in case it conducts a provocation against South Korea.*
> 
> In March, North Korea launched what appeared to be two KN-02 missiles off its east coast. Experts believe the country is trying to improve the range and accuracy of its arsenal.
> 
> *North Korea recently withdrew two mid-range “Musudan” missiles believed to be capable of reaching Guam after moving them to its east coast earlier this year, U.S. officials said. The North is banned from testing ballistic missiles under UN Security Council resolutions.*
> Earlier this year, North Korea threatened nuclear strikes on Seoul and Washington because of annual U.S.-South Korean military drills and UN sanctions imposed over its third nuclear test in February. The drills ended late last month. This past month, the U.S. and South Korea ended another round of naval drills involving a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier off the east coast. North Korea calls such drills preparation to invade the North.
> 
> Analysts say the recent North Korean threats were partly an attempt to push Washington to agree to disarmament-for-aid talks.
> 
> This past week, Glyn Davies, the top U.S. envoy on North Korea, ended trips to South Korea, China and Japan. On Friday, an adviser to Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe returned from North Korea but didn’t immediately give details of his talks with officials there.
> 
> On Monday, North Korean state media showed that the country’s hard-line defense minister had been replaced by a little-known army general. Outside analysts said it was part of leader Kim Jong-un’s efforts to tighten his grip on the powerful military after his father Kim Jong-il died in December 2011.
> 
> The United States and Japan are participants in six-nation nuclear disarmament talks along with the Koreas, Russia and Japan. North Korea walked out of the talks in 2009 after the United Nations condemned it for a long-range rocket launch.
> 
> North Korea possesses an array of missiles. U.S. and South Korean officials do not believe the North’s claim that it has developed nuclear warheads small enough to place on a missile. Last week in Washington, South Korean President Park Geun-hye and President Barack Obama warned North Korea against further nuclear provocations.
> 
> Tension between the two Koreas remains high after both sides pulled out their workers from a jointly run factory complex earlier this year. The countries remain technically at war after the 1950-53 Korean War ended in a truce instead of a peace treaty.


----------



## Edward Campbell

Sui-Lee Wee, the Reuters Beijing correspondent, says that North Korea's envoy (to Beijing, I assume) has told Chinese leader Liu Yunshan* that Pyongyang is willing to take China's _advice_ to start talks with relevant parties.

__________
* Liu is First Secretary of the Central Secretariat of the Communist Party of China, Chairman of the CPC Central Guidance Commission for Building Spiritual Civilization and President of the CPC Central Party School, which makes him, essentially, the Vice President of China.


----------



## Edward Campbell

Doug Bandow, a senior fellow at the _libertarian_ inclined Cato Institute offers a provocative prescription for the Korean peninsula in this article which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from _Cato at Liberty_:

http://www.cato.org/blog/korean-deja-vu-north-koreans-back-begging-money?utm_source=buffer&utm_campaign=Buffer&utm_content=buffer5eb52&utm_medium=twitter


> Korean Déjà vu: North Koreans Back Begging for Money
> 
> By DOUG BANDOW
> 
> JUNE 12, 2013
> 
> The world has moved on to the latest crisis du jour, but it wasn’t that long ago when North Korea’s Kim Jong-un was dominating global headlines threatening to nuke places like Austin, Texas.  (Why Austin?  Maybe because Cato Senior Fellow Ted Galen Carpenter now resides there, but that’s only speculation on my part!)
> 
> Since then Pyongyang has gone largely silent.  But on Sunday representatives from the so-called Democratic People’s Republic of Korea met with South Korean officials and plotted expanded talks for later this week.  As Yogi Berra once observed, it’s déjà vu all over again.
> 
> The DPRK has been threatening the peace in Northeast Asia since its founding in 1948.  In the 1990s the Republic of Korea decided to try appeasement, providing roughly $10 billion in aid and investment to the North in ensuing years.  Alas, Pyongyang simply took the cash from the so-called Sunshine Policy and built more nuclear weapons.
> 
> Andrei Lankov, who as a Soviet student studied in Pyongyang and now teaches in the South, argues that the Kim family regime is unlikely to ever reform, since doing so would threaten its survival.  Any change is likely to lead to an eventual South Korean takeover.  So the DPRK regime tries to extort money out of other nations.
> 
> The ROK again is the chief target, since the upcoming talks were expected to focus on reopening the Kaesong Industrial Complex, closed by the North during its recent provocative cycle.  The KIC provides Pyongyang with $90 million annually in salary revenue alone.  Apparently the North also wants to restart tourist tours elsewhere, which would provide more hard currency.
> 
> Seoul would be foolish to agree.  As I argue on American Spectator online:
> 
> What possible argument is there for keeping the subsidies going after Kim Jong-un’s recent fire-and-brimstone tirade?  South Koreans are putting money into the hands of the North’s barbaric elite which is
> threatening to destroy the ROK.  Every won sent north can be used to add more nuclear weapons, miniaturize nuclear bombs, and extend the range of nuclear-capable missiles.
> 
> The argument that making North Korean officials feel warm and fuzzy will convince them to cast off their collective security coat has been disproved by experience.  Lankov still argues that in the long-term the
> subversive impact of KIC on the North Korean population makes it worth the cost.  That might be true if the money didn’t act as a direct subsidy for the regime.  Cutting the North’s financial windpipe would seem to
> be a better strategy.
> 
> Of course, the South Korean government can set its own policy.  But American taxpayers should not protect a country which is subsidizing its potential enemy.  In effect, Seoul is paying Kim & Co. to build weapons which would be used to kill the very Americans guarding the ROK.
> 
> At the last minute the Kim government pulled out of the planned talks.  The official reason was a tiff over relative rank of the negotiators.  More likely the DPRK is playing its usual game of raising positive expectations and then creating tension, with the plan to soon return to whisper sweet nothings in Seoul’s ear.
> 
> Whatever happens to the latest round of talks, as I’ve long argued it is time for Washington to disentangle itself from the Korean peninsula.  American troops should come home; America’s defense guarantee should end.  North Korea should become its neighbors’ problem.  Then maybe Seoul would spend millions more dollars directly on the South Korean military rather than indirectly on the North Korean military.




This, of course, is exactly what China wants, and, if it ever happens, Korean reunification will happen quickly, peacefully and under a democratic (South Korean) regime.


----------



## CougarKing

One of Pyongyang's clients...

Defense News link



> *US Blacklists Myanmar General over N. Korea Arms Deals*
> 
> Jul. 2, 2013 - 04:27PM
> 
> WASHINGTON — The United States placed a Myanmar general on its sanctions blacklist Tuesday for arms deals with North Korea that violated the UN Security Council embargo on buying weapons from Pyongyang.
> 
> Weeks after a landmark visit to Washington by Myanmar President Thein Sein celebrated the thaw in bilateral relations, the US Treasury named *Lt. General Thein Htay*, the head of Myanmar’s Directorate of Defense Industries, for the sanctions.
> 
> The Treasury said the general was involved in buying North Korean military goods despite his government’s support of the Security Council ban.
> 
> It said he acted on behalf of the Directorate of Defense Industries, a Myanmar military agency that was placed on the US sanctions blacklist in July 2012 for arms deals with North Korea.
> 
> The Treasury stressed in a statement that the Myanmar government, which until 2010 endured years of isolation and condemnation by the international community for rights abuses, was not targeted by the sanctions.
> 
> *“This action specifically targets Thein Htay, who is involved in the illicit trade of North Korean arms to Burma,” the Treasury said, using the former official name for Myanmar.*
> 
> “It does not target the government of Burma, which has continued to take positive steps in severing its military ties with North Korea.”
> 
> The Treasury noted that the Myanmar government last November “publicly announced its intention to abide by” the UN Security Council resolution prohibiting countries from buying military equipment and support from North Korea.
> 
> “The international community has repeatedly condemned North Korea’s nuclear and
> (...)


----------



## CougarKing

Whatever happened to all those legendary Swedish prostitutes his Dad kept around to feed his "addiction" when he was alive?  

But seriously, if those jump suits were coloured prison orange instead of white, it wouldn't make a difference, since that whole country is a prison and Kim's family are the wardens and the North Korean People's Army/NKPA are the guards.







link



> *The leader of North Korea apparently has learned a lesson from Hollywood: Image is everything.*
> 
> The man known to the Western world as running a country that starves its population and menaces neighboring countries with a nuclear weapons program is a rock star, a photo released by North Korea's Central News Agency would have you believe.
> 
> *More Lil’ Kim than Kim Jong Un, the picture shows the leader mobbed by workers at a mushroom farm. From the looks of it, the leader is loved by his people.*
> 
> *Dressed in dark shirt and pants, the 29-year-old stands in the middle of a crowd of women wearing immaculate white jumpsuits, * with some grabbing his arms and others who appear to be weeping. A female soldier stands beside Kim, holding his other arm protectively in a failed attempt to shield him from the adoring onslaught.
> 
> Is it staged? Reuters, which distributed the photo, notes that it is unable to “independently verify the authenticity, content, location, or date of this image.”


----------



## CougarKing

I expect Chinese knockoffs of this "premiere North Korean smartphone" from factories in China's neighbouring Liaoning and Heilongjiang provinces on the same day it's first released in the PRC...

 :facepalm: 











link



> *The Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) has released several new photos showing leader Kim Jong-un inspecting a North Korean smartphone factory, as well as taking a look at the country's first smartphone, the Arirang.*
> 
> Though little is known about the Arirang -- we'd only recently been introduced to North Korea's tablet, but did not know the secretive country was working on a smartphone, too -- *we do know that it runs Google's Android operating system, that it has a touchscreen and that it features at least a rear camera. *
> 
> (...)
> 
> North Korea, and its new leader Kim Jong-un, have an odd and fascinating relationship with the Internet and technology. Recently, Google chairman and former CEO Eric Schmidt visited the country to lobby on behalf of Google (and perhaps that visit worked, given the operating system of the Arirang); his daughter Sophie blogged about the journey and vividly described a restricted technological landscape, and a heavily-filtered Internet. In an apparent effort to prevent citizen envy of Western devices like the iPhone, meanwhile, North Korea has ramped up production of their own hardware, debuting a $200 tablet and smartphone within a few weeks of each other.


----------



## OldSolduer

Who cuts his frickin hair?


----------



## CougarKing

Jim Seggie said:
			
		

> Who cuts his frickin hair?



Probably someone who fears for his life if he screws up the haircut...





> Kim Jong Un: "I told you to remove the sideburns....off to the gulag with you!!!!"


----------



## Kat Stevens

Jim Seggie said:
			
		

> Who cuts his frickin hair?



That's not a haircut, that's vacuum moulding.


----------



## OldSolduer

Kat Stevens said:
			
		

> That's not a haircut, that's vacuum moulding.


One of the mixing bowls is missing from the cupboard


----------



## Inquisitor

7 Things North Korea Is Really Good At

Hey, even a basket case is good at something. 


In the spirit of Ben Smith's "11 BuzzFeed Lists That Explain the World" for the May/June 2013 issue of Foreign Policy, the FP staff decided to look at the world through BuzzFeed's eyes for a day. For more, check out 14 Hairless Cats That Look Like Vladimir Putin, 9 Disturbingly Good Jihadi Raps, 36 Mustaches That Explain Why There's No Peace in the Middle East, and 1 Pentagon Weapons System That Was on Time and Under Budget. 
link here http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/04/29/7_things_north_korea_is_really_good_at?wpisrc=obinsite


----------



## CougarKing

So it was all for show?



> *'A big hoax': Experts say North Korea showing off missiles that can't fly*
> 
> A photo montage from a July 26, 2013, military parade in the North Korean capital of Pyongyang shows a purported *Hwasong-13 intercontinental ballistic missile*, with the area where retro rockets should be mounted highlighted, along with close-ups showing that forward nozzles on the rocket bodies of two individual missiles were placed in different positions.
> 
> PYONGYANG, North Korea -- Missiles paraded through the streets of Pyongyang in recent displays of North Korean military might -- said to be capable of hitting targets throughout Asia and even in the U.S. -- are incapable of flight and are almost certainly nothing more than fakes, according to U.S. government experts and independent analysts.
> 
> *"My opinion is that it's a big hoax," Markus Schiller, an aerospace engineer in Munich and former RAND Corp. military analyst, said of the intercontinental and medium-range missiles displayed in the North Korean capital in April 2012 and again two weeks ago. *
> 
> U.S. government experts, having reviewed unclassified images from the most recent parade on July 27, including high-resolution photos provided by NBC News, agreed. “Our assessment is that what we are looking at is most likely simulators used for training purposes,” according to a statement to NBC News.
> 
> Pictures and more at...
> 
> [ur=http://investigations.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/08/15/20010707-a-big-hoax-experts-say-north-korea-showing-off-missiles-that-cant-fly?lite]NBC news link[/url]



This is in contrast to:

Defense News link



> *Think Tank Sees Signs North Korea Is Expanding Its Nuclear Weapons Work*
> 
> While Washington is focused on Edward Snowden, Vladimir Putin, Egypt’s political unrest and Iran’s new president, what is North Korea up to? One Washington-based think tank believes the outlaw regime in Pyongyang is increasing its ability to enrich uranium, the key to its nuclear weapons program.
> 
> *“Recent satellite imagery of the Yongbyon nuclear complex in North Korea indicates that it has apparently expanded a building in the fuel fabrication complex that houses a gas centrifuge plant for uranium enrichment,” the Institute for Science and International Security said in a report released this week. “The area is now covered by an extended roof that is roughly twice the size of the previous one.”*
> 
> North Korean officials have claimed the facility is used to produce low enriched uranium that fuels an experimental light-water reactor. But ISIS says some of those materials “could have been further enriched at a secret centrifuge site to produce weapon-grade uranium.”
> 
> ISIS describes itself as “a non-profit, non-partisan institution dedicated to informing the public about science and policy issues affecting international security.” The organization’s top priority is “stopping the spread of nuclear weapons and related technology to other nations and terrorists, bringing about greater transparency of nuclear activities worldwide, strengthening the international non-proliferation regime, and achieving deep cuts in nuclear arsenals.”
> 
> ISIS analysts, after examining its own satellite imagery and Google Earth images, that “construction of the centrifuge building extension appears to have begun sometime in March 2013.”
> 
> North Korean officials claim those projects were aimed at “readjusting and restarting all the nuclear facilities in Yongbyon including uranium enrichment plant and 5MW graphite moderated reactor.”
> 
> *The think tank also has concluded the imagery shows “a doubling of available floor space … could allow a doubling of the number of centrifuges installed.”
> 
> “ North Korea stated in 2010 that the plant contained about 2,000 centrifuges with an enrichment output of 8,000 separative work units (swu) per year,” *states the ISIS report. “Thus, North Korea could in theory install 2,000 more centrifuges for a total of 4,000 centrifuges with a total declared capacity of 16,000 swu per year in this expanded building.” The think tank also says imagery shows construction at other parts of the facility.
> 
> (...)


----------



## CougarKing

Someone just can't take rejection...  :

Fox News link



> *Kim Jong-un's ex-girlfriend reportedly executed by firing squad*
> 
> The ex-girlfriend of North Korean leader Kim-Jong-un was one of a dozen people reportedly executed by a firing squad last week.
> 
> The South Korean newspaper Chosun Ilbo reports that singer Hyon Song-wol and 11 others had been arrested on August 17 for violating North Korea's laws against pornography and was executed three days later.
> 
> The paper reported that the condemned, all members of the performing groups Unhasu Orchestra and Wangjaesan Light Music Band, were accused of making videos of themselves having sex and selling the videos, which the paper reported were available in China.


----------



## Edward Campbell

Unconfirmed, but interesting video from the _Globe and Mail__.

A further report on the rumoured execution of Hyon Song-wol is also reported in The Telegraph.

_


----------



## Jarnhamar

> The think tank also has concluded the imagery shows “a doubling of available floor space … could allow a doubling of the number of centrifuges installed.”



These guys sound really smart.  I wonder if they will next conclude that rockets shot up in the air will probably come down somewhere.


----------



## OldSolduer

S.M.A. said:
			
		

> Someone just can't take rejection...  :
> 
> Fox News link



She probably was the one that cut his hair.....


----------



## The Bread Guy

Jim Seggie said:
			
		

> She probably was the one that cut his hair.....


If that was the case, the hairdresser rated execution LONG ago....


----------



## CougarKing

Not a surprise considering that illegal narcotics are among this country's few exports...



> *North Korea in grip of drugs epidemic, report claims*
> 
> Hong Kong (CNN) --* North Korea's sanction-hit regime has long been accused of drug trafficking as a source of hard currency, but a new report claims drug producers are finding a ready market closer to home and that as many as two-thirds of North Koreans have used methamphetamines*.
> 
> According to a report in the Spring 2013 edition of the journal North Korean Review, *stricter China border controls have forced methamphetamine producers in the north to seek a local market for "ice" (known locally as "bingdu").*
> 
> (edit)
> 
> *Some informants are saying almost every adult in North Korea around the China-North Korea border are using methamphetamine,"* she said, adding that the drug was often used as a palliative in place of hard-to-obtain prescription medicine.
> 
> "Actually, the hospital medical system (has) stopped for such a long time, so they need something to cure their pain ... physical pain," she said. "But once they get addicted to methamphetamine, there's no way for them to get out of it."
> 
> More at...
> 
> CNN link


----------



## Jarnhamar

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> If that was the case, the hairdresser rated execution LONG ago....



I'm pretty sure the general on the right is from the trade federation









.


----------



## CougarKing

The latest round of North Korean purges at the top...

From the Telegraph via the National Post



> *Kim Jong-un’s North Korean purge continues as father’s favoured army chief disappears*
> The Telegraph
> 
> 
> *Kim Jong-un is apparently keeping up his purge within the upper echelons of North Korean society with the reported sacking of his hawkish army chief.
> 
> Kim Kyok-sik*,  who is believed to have been behind the sinking of the South Korean corvette Cheonan and the bombardment of Yeonpyeong Island in late 2010, has disappeared from the list of senior regime officials attending public events in recent weeks. “We are closely watching developments in the North, believing that *Kim Kyok-sik has been replaced by Ri Yong-gil*,  the chief of operations for the Army General Staff,” a source in the South Korean government told the Chosun Ilbo newspaper.
> 
> North Korean media have also pictured Ri with new four-star insignia.
> 
> Analysts believe that *Kim Kyok-sik has been replaced as Kim Jong-un attempts to stamp his own influence on the military and replace those who were loyal to his father’s regime with his own hand-picked acolytes.*
> 
> *The purge follows the execution of 12 female singers and musicians — including Hyon Song-wol, Kim’s former girlfriend — for reportedly making and selling pornographic videos.*
> 
> “They were executed with machine guns while the key members of the Unhasu Orchestra, Wangjaesan Light Band and Moranbong Band as well as the families of the victims looked on,” a Chinese source said in the report.
> 
> Hyon’s popularity reached its zenith (in North Korea) with the 2005 single A Girl In The Saddle Of A Steed , also known as Excellent Horse-Like Lady.
> 
> The band’s other patriotic hits include Footsteps of Soldiers, I Love Pyongyang, She is a Discharged Soldier and We are Troops of the Party.
> 
> Hyon was believed to have then married a North Korean army officer.
> 
> *Kim’s wife, Ri Sol-ju, is a former member of the Unhasu Orchestra and there is speculation she objected to the high-profile of her husband’s former lover.
> 
> South Korean intelligence officers were quoted in the country’s newspapers that Hyon and Kim had an affair after her marriage.*
> 
> Meanwhile, North Korea has cancelled a planned trip for a U.S. envoy to travel to Pyongyang to seek the release of Kenneth Bae, an imprisoned missionary.


----------



## tomahawk6

Forced retirement at 75.


----------



## CougarKing

Typical...  :

link



> SINGAPORE/BEIJING (Reuters) - *Flamboyant former basketball star Dennis Rodman arrived in North Korea on Tuesday for a five-day visit, his second this year, but said he had no plans to negotiate the release of a jailed American missionary*.
> 
> There had been speculation that Rodman, who met North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in March, would secure the release of Kenneth Bae, who was jailed for 15 years for trying to overthrow the North Korean government.
> 
> "I'm not going to North Korea to discuss freeing Kenneth Bae," Rodman told Reuters in a telephone interview before he left Beijing for Pyongyang. "I'm just going there on another basketball diplomacy tour."
> 
> Kim, the third of his line to rule North Korea, is a basketball fan and appeared to get on well with Rodman on the earlier visit, with the two of them pictured laughing, eating and drinking together and watching an all-star basketball match.
> 
> Rodman's latest trip is being sponsored by Irish bookmaker Paddy Power. His arrival was announced on North Korean news agency KCNA, which did not provide any further details of the trip.
> 
> Wearing his trademark dark sunglasses, the 6-foot 7-inch (2.01 meter) Rodman pushed through a throng of journalists at Beijing's international airport, a common waystation for travelers to North Korea.
> 
> *"I'm just trying to go over there to meet my friend Kim, the Marshal," Rodman said. "Try to start a basketball league over there, something like that."*
> 
> (...)


----------



## CougarKing

The biggest single atrocity yet committed by North Korea's regime?  

National Post link



> *Human rights group demands inquiry into fate of 20,000 North Koreans who ‘disappeared’ from gulag*
> 
> *Tens of thousands of North Korean inmates of Camp No. 22, one of the regime’s most brutal labour colonies, have disappeared, according to a human rights group that is demanding an inquiry into their fate.*
> 
> There are fears that up to 20,000 may have been allowed to die of disease or starvation in the run-up to the closure of the camp at the end of last year.
> 
> *The suspicion has emerged after a report by the Committee for Human Rights in North Korea (HRNK) detailing the situation in penal colonies as Kim Jong-un consolidated his power after taking over from his father, Kim Jong-il who died in 2011. * The Washington-based organization gleans information from defectors, including former guards and the occasional survivor of a prison camp, as well as examining satellite imagery.
> 
> *It focused much of its attention on Camp 22, a vast compound sprawled across 770 square miles, making it larger than London. The report discloses that two camps have been closed in the past year but that 130,000 individuals are still being held in penal labour colonies.*
> 
> “Through this vast system of unlawful imprisonment, the North Korean regime isolates, banishes, punishes and executes those suspected of being disloyal to the regime,” the report states. “They are deemed ‘wrong-thinkers,’ ‘wrongdoers,’ or those who have acquired ‘wrong knowledge’ or have engaged in ‘wrong associations.’ “
> 
> Detainees are “relentlessly subjected to malnutrition, forced labour, and to other cruel and unusual punishment,” the report says, with thousands more forcibly held in other detention facilities.
> 
> 
> "This is an atrocity requiring much closer investigation,"
> 
> (...)


----------



## Rifleman62

For the first time, the inmates of Camp 22 had fresh meat to supplement their daily ration of grass. The next day all had soup.

I would not put it pass them.


----------



## 57Chevy

Article shared with provisions of The Copyright Act

North Korea Appears to Restart Plutonium Reactor
 The New York Times 

WASHINGTON — New satellite photographs showing steam emerging from a newly reconstructed nuclear reactor in North Korea suggest that the country may be making good on its promise to resume the production of plutonium for its small nuclear arsenal, six years after it reached an agreement with the Bush administration to dismantle the facility. 

The discovery of the activity at the Yongbyon complex, the centerpiece of North Korea’s nuclear program, was reported by the U.S.-Korea Institute, at Johns Hopkins University, which follows the North’s nuclear program closely. 

article continues at link


----------



## CougarKing

Pyongyang preparing for another round of brinksmanship?   :

Defense News



> SEOUL —*New satellite images suggest North Korea tested a long-range rocket engine last month, a US research institute said Monday.*
> 
> While the exact engine type could not be identified, possibilities included the second stage of the Unha-3 Space Launch Vehicle or the second or third stage engine of a much larger rocket under development, the US-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins University posted on its 38 North website.
> 
> Analysis of before and after satellite photos indicated the test had taken place sometime between Aug. 25 and 30 at the *North’s Sohae satellite launching station, the post said.
> 
> Sohae was the base for the successful launch of the Unha-3 rocket in December *—  an event condemned by the West as a disguised long-range ballistic missile test that violated UN resolutions.
> 
> The UN Security Council tightened sanctions against North Korea after the launch — and then again after the North’s missile test in February.
> 
> Separate satellite images analyzed by the US-Korea Institute last month showed that North Korea has embarked on a major new construction program at Sohae.
> 
> *The building work included what could be a possible new launch pad for testing mobile ballistic missiles.*


----------



## Nemo888

S.M.A. said:
			
		

> The biggest single atrocity yet committed by North Korea's regime?
> 
> National Post link



Not even close. During the height of the famine Vietnam owed a large amount of money to NK. They offered to pay the NK's in rice, but NK demanded it be paid in armaments. Estimates put famine deaths at around 2.5 million.

If you are curious what would happen if we ran out of oil that is exactly what happened to NK. When the pumps that ran on petrol allowed the coal mines to fill with water everything collapsed in a matter of months.


----------



## CougarKing

And the cycle of North Korean brinksmanship begins again... 

Yawn...

Unless Kim Jong Un is still REALLY upset about not getting ski lifts from Switzerland.  :

Reuters



> *North Korea puts army on alert, warns U.S. of 'horrible disaster'*
> SEOUL | Mon Oct 7, 2013 7:42pm EDT
> 
> (Reuters) - North Korea said on Tuesday its military would be put on high alert and be ready to launch operations, stepping up tension after weeks of rhetoric directed against the United States and South Korea, who it accuses of instigating hostility.
> 
> Reclusive North Korea has often issued threats to attack the South and the United States but has rarely turned them into action. Such hostile rhetoric is widely seen as a means to perpetuate its domestic and international political agenda.
> 
> In the latest outburst, a spokesman for the North's military warned the United States of "disastrous consequences" for moving a group of ships, including an aircraft carrier, into a South Korean port.
> 
> "In this connection, the units of all services and army corps level of the KPA received an emergency order from its supreme command to reexamine the operation plans already ratified by it and keep themselves fully ready to promptly launch operations any time," the spokesman said, referring to the Korean People's Army (KPA).
> 
> (...)


----------



## JesseWZ

S.M.A. said:
			
		

> "In this connection, the units of all services and army corps level of the KPA_ received an emergency order from its supreme command to reexamine the operation plans already ratified by it and keep themselves fully ready to promptly launch operations any time,_" the spokesman said, referring to the Korean People's Army (KPA).



Huh?

You mean like most professional armies do as a matter of course?


----------



## a_majoor

Funny story on CTV newschannel today: NK is opening a luxury ski resort and tourists are welcome.

Do serving NATO personnel get discounts, attractive hosts and hostesses along with free drinks?


----------



## CougarKing

Another change in North Korea's chain of command...



> *Kim Kyok Sik, North Korea's Hardline Military Chief, Replaced By Ri Yong Gil  *
> 
> SEOUL, South Korea -- SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — North Korea has replaced its hard line military chief just a few months after his appointment, the latest in an ongoing reshuffle of top personnel that analysts say is meant to solidify ruler Kim Jong Un's grip on power.
> 
> The name of new military chief, Ri Yong Gil, was revealed Thursday in a Korean Central News Agency dispatch listing top officials who accompanied Kim Jong Un to the mausoleum housing his father and grandfather.
> 
> *Ri replaces Kim Kyok Sik, the former commander of battalions believed responsible for attacks on South Korea in 2010 that killed 50 people.*  It was only in May that state media dispatches first identified Kim as the military's general chief of staff.
> 
> (edit)
> 
> Nearly half of about 220 top government, Workers' Party and military officials have been replaced since Kim took power, according to Seoul's Unification Ministry.
> 
> More at...
> 
> The Huffington Post


----------



## Edward Campbell

HELP University in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, has awarded an honorary doctorate to Kim Jong-Un according to this story.

Philip J Crowley tweets that he doubts it was for was for economics or the humanities.  :nod:


----------



## CougarKing

Perhaps one of their faulty Cold-War era torpedoes spun around and hit the ship that launched it?

Defense News



> *North Korea Reports Warship Sank; Number of Dead Unknown*
> 
> SEOUL — *A number of North Korean sailors were killed when a warship sank during “combat duties” last month*,  a state newspaper has reported in an unusual admission by the secretive state.
> 
> The North’s ruling party newspaper Rodong Sinmun gave no figures for the number of dead. But photographs of gravestones in Saturday’s website edition suggested about 15-20 may have died.
> 
> The paper showed solemn-faced leader Kim Jong-Un laying flowers at a cemetery specially created for victims of the incident, who “met heroic deaths while performing their combat duties”.
> 
> *The report gave no details of how the sailors on a ship identified as “submarine chaser no. 233” had died. * It did not say where the cemetery was located.
> 
> After hearing of the incident, Kim ordered a search to retrieve all the bodies and gave detailed instructions on construction of the cemetery and gravestones, the paper said.
> 
> South Korea’s Chosun Ilbo newspaper said Monday *that two North Korean warships sank last month during an exercise off the eastern port of Wonsan, killing scores of sailors.*
> 
> Quoting a military source, it said the ships were* a Hainan-class 375-ton submarine chaser and a 100 to 200-ton patrol boat.*
> 
> “The Hainan-class submarine chaser probably sank because it’s old. It was built in China in the 1960s and the North bought it in the mid-70s,” the source was quoted as saying.
> 
> North and South Korea have remained technically at war since the Korean conflict ended in an armistice in 1953.
> 
> *While the North’s military totals more than one million personnel, much of its equipment is aging.
> 
> Seoul accused Pyongyang of sending a submarine to sink a South Korean warship in March 2010 with the loss of 46 lives.*


----------



## tomahawk6

As the ship was involved in war games,speculation is that somehow depth charges blew up causing the ship to sink.Viewing the headstones it appears that many of the officers were killed.


----------



## OldSolduer

His barber needs a few lessons.


----------



## CougarKing

Yikes.

Defense News



> *South Korea: North Developing EMP Weapons*
> 
> SEOUL — South Korea’s spy agency said Monday that North Korea was using Russian technology to develop electromagnetic pulse weapons aimed at paralyzing military electronic equipment south of the border.
> 
> *The National Intelligence Service (NIS) said in a report to parliament that the North had purchased Russian electromagnetic pulse (EMP) weaponry to develop its own versions.*
> 
> EMP weapons are used to damage electronic equipment. At higher energy levels, an EMP event can cause more widespread damage including to aircraft structures and other objects.
> 
> *The spy agency also said the North’s leader Kim Jong-Un sees cyberattacks as an all-purpose weapon along with nuclear weapons and missiles, according to lawmakers briefed by the NIS.*
> 
> The North is trying to hack into smartphones and lure South Koreans into becoming informants, it said.
> 
> It has collected information on where South Korea stores chemical substances and oil reserves as well as details about subways, tunnels and train networks in major cities, it said.
> 
> *The spy agency also said North Korean spies were operating in China and Japan to distribute pro-Pyongyang propaganda.
> 
> North Korea is believed to run an elite cyber warfare unit of 3,000 personnel.*
> (...)


----------



## tomahawk6

A non-nuclear EMP would affect a small area.On the other hand a nuclear EMP would have a devastating effect over a wide area.


----------



## Hudyma

EMPs in general are a scary thing.  We are so dependent on electronics for everything (from warfare to life support in a children's hospital), a weapon like this would be devastating.


----------



## CougarKing

Along with the recent news about North Korea's reported focus on developing EMP weapons, this should prove unsettling.

Defense News



> SEOUL — *North Korea is making progress on an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of delivering a first-generation nuclear warhead to the continental United States, a leading US think-tank said Tuesday.*
> 
> The closely followed 38 North website of the Johns Hopkins University’s US-Korea Institute argued that ICBM mock-ups seen at recent military parades in Pyongyang were “less fake” than originally believed.
> 
> Numerous experts had widely ridiculed the models of the North’s road-mobile KN-08 ICBM seen in 2012 and July this year, with at least one respected aerospace engineer labeling them technically preposterous and a “big hoax.”
> 
> An analysis posted by 38 North disagreed, saying they were consistent with the ongoing development of a missile with a limited intercontinental ability using only existing North Korean technology.
> 
> *“Elegant or not,” the mockups suggest an ability to assemble components and technologies to produce missiles with theoretical ranges of 5,500 kilometers (3,400 miles) to more than 11,000 km.*
> 
> “Almost all of the configurations examined would be able to deliver a light, first-generation nuclear warhead at least as far as Seattle,” it said.
> 
> The analysis was co-written by non-proliferation expert Jeffrey Lewis and aerospace engineer John Schilling.
> 
> (...)


----------



## tomahawk6

Until such time as the North could launch 50 ICBM's or more the US ABM defenses will be hard to penetrate - unless a detonation could be achieved in the atmosphere.


----------



## CougarKing

Another example of the barbarism of this regime.

Huffington Post



> *North Korea 'Publicly Executed 80 People,' South Korean Paper Reports*
> 
> North Korea publicly executed around 80 people earlier this month, many for watching smuggled South Korean TV shows, a South Korean newspaper reported Monday.
> 
> The conservative JoongAng Ilbo cited a single, unidentified source, but at least one North Korean defector group said it had heard rumours that lent credibility to the front-page report.
> 
> The source, said to be "familiar" with the North's internal affairs and recently returned from the country, said the executions were carried out in seven cities on November 3.
> 
> Reported by Agence France Presse
> From The Huffington Post


----------



## CougarKing

More sanctions for the DPRK after the recent Iranian nuke program deal? Aren't Davies and other US officials being a tad bit optimistic that the sanctions course of action used with Iran will necessarily yield the same result with Pyongyang? This is just setting the stage for the DPRK to continue to blackmail the US/west with the usual cycle of saber rattling and brinksmanship.

Defense News



> *US Hints At More Sanctions On N. Korea After Iranian Deal*
> Nov. 25, 2013 - 04:37PM   |   By AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE
> 
> TOKYO — Washington’s point man on North Korea on Monday hinted at more sanctions against Pyongyang over its atomic weapons program in the wake of Iran’s nuclear deal with world powers.
> 
> Glyn Davies, the US special representative for North Korea policy, said he hoped quickening diplomacy examining when to resume stalled six-party talks would bear fruit.
> 
> (...)
> 
> *Davies warned that it was difficult to draw direct comparison between North Korea and Iran, but highlighted the fact that the use of sanctions led to success with Tehran.*
> 
> Davies said the United States was in close consultation with China to examine the right “threshold” to allow the resumption of six-party talks, which group the two Koreas, China, Japan, Russia and the United States.
> 
> “We believe sanctions and pressure are key in sharpening choices that Pyongyang faces,” he said.
> 
> “Given North Korea’s continued flouting of its international obligations and international law, given its testing of nuclear devices, given its repeated threats of nuclear attack, its elevation of its nuclear weapons program and pursuit to its highest national priority, we will continue to keep pressure on North Korea, to keep the screws to North Korea,” he said.
> 
> *If North Korea fails to comply with the demands of the international community, “we will have to amp up that pressure in order to continue to try to bring home to them that this is a mistake,” Davies said.*
> 
> “There is still a room for diplomacy,” he added. “That’s why the pace of diplomacy has increased to see if we can agree on an appropriate threshold for six-party talks.”
> 
> “North Korea must abandon its nuclear weapons and agree to begin that process. We are looking for concrete indications from Pyongyang of its commitment to do that,” Davies said.


----------



## CougarKing

A power broker is removed. Perhaps a power struggle has occurred?

CBC News



> *North Korea: Kim Jong-un's uncle dismissed from post*
> 
> *Jang Song Thaek* was the National Defence Commission's vice chairman
> 
> North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's uncle, considered the power behind the throne, is believed to have been dismissed from his posts, a South Korean lawmaker said on Tuesday, suggesting a huge upheaval in one of the world's most secretive states.
> 
> Jang Song Thaek was likely sacked as vice chairman of the North's powerful National Defence Commission and as a department head of the ruling Workers' Party, the lawmaker, Jung Cheong-rae, said citing a senior South Korean official with the National Intelligence Service (NIS).
> 
> *2 aides allegedly executed*
> 
> "The briefing by an NIS senior official was that they believe Jang Song Thaek has lost his posts," Jung told a news briefing.
> 
> Two close aides to Jang in the Workers' Party had also been executed for corruption, Jung said, also citing the briefing.
> 
> (...)


----------



## tomahawk6

Jang's wife remains in her post.


----------



## 57Chevy

Article from Mail Online is shared with provisions of the Copyright Act

 Kim Jong Un's uncle executed for being a 'traitor' as North Korean state media describe him as 'worse than a dog'
Mark Duell, 12Dec

Jang Song Thaek was a mentor to Kim Jong Un and married to his aunt
He faced allegations of corruption, drug use, gambling and womanising 
Pyongyang said Jang had generally led a 'dissolute and depraved life'

It comes days after Pyongyang announced that Jang Song Thaek had been removed from all his posts because of allegations of corruption, drug use, gambling, womanising and generally leading a ‘dissolute and depraved life’.

The state news agency KCNA said a tribunal examined Mr Jang's crimes, including ‘attempting to overthrow the state by all sorts of intrigues and despicable methods with a wild ambition to grab the supreme power of our party and state.’ 


The report called him 'a traitor to the nation'. Mr Jang was considered the second most powerful official in the North. He was seen as helping Kim Jong Un consolidate power after the death of his father, Kim Jong Il, two years ago.

Some analysts see the purge as a sign of Kim Jong Un's growing confidence, but there has also been fear in Seoul that the removal of such an important part of the North's government - seen by outsiders as the leading supporter of Chinese-style economic reforms - could create dangerous instability or lead to a miscalculation or attack on the South.

Tensions are still high on the Korean Peninsula following a torrent of threats in March and April by Kim Jong Un's government against Washington, Seoul and Tokyo, including vows of missile and nuclear strikes and warnings that Pyongyang would restart nuclear bomb fuel production.

Mr Jang was married to Kim Jong Un's aunt, Kim Kyong Hui, the younger sister of Kim Jong Il.

He was earlier described by state media as ‘abusing his power’, being ‘engrossed in irregularities and corruption’, and taking drugs and squandering money at casinos while undergoing medical treatment in a foreign country. 

 Article with photoshopping continues at link.


----------



## Edward Campbell

S.M.A. said:
			
		

> A power broker is removed. Perhaps a power struggle has occurred?
> 
> CBC News




Apparently his _removal_ is permanent.


----------



## FSTO

Wow, just like the Stalin era! 

Photoshoppers get busy!


----------



## tomahawk6

I think the Generals have control and the elimination of Jang further isolates Kim Jong Un as a figurehead.


----------



## cupper

Or maybe the Aunt finally had him offed for leaving the toilet seat up one too many times.


----------



## Edward Campbell

Unless the DPRK releases pictures from the execution ground, and they may, if it serves their domestic political interests, this may be the last image we have of Jang Song Thaek:






Source: The Straits Times


----------



## tomahawk6

Jang looks like he was punched a few times.Below is an image showing Jang's arrest.The nephew took a page out of Saddam's purge playbook.


----------



## 57Chevy

This incident proves dissention within his ranks.
(We) The West, the whole world including China should strongly (*vigorously) condemn this murderous fool
which would/should cause further dissention, especially amongst the elite gong bearers.

Strike while the iron is hot.

 :nod:


*vigorously


----------



## tomahawk6

Regime change will happen only by the Army and State Security.Since they find Kim Jong Un useful as their front man there will be no change.Of course a revolution could occur I just don't see it happening.


----------



## Edward Campbell

Jang Song Thaek was China's man in Pyongyang; he was the top official who went back and forth to Beijing, reassuring the men in the _Zhongnanhai_ that there was some sort of a plan in the DPRK, a method to the apparent madness.

I'm guessing that the DPRK Army leadership is as loyal to Xi Jinping as it is to Kim Jong-un.

It's important to remember that, on balance, South Korea is more important to China that is North Korea ... a lot more important.


----------



## tomahawk6

Follow the money trail. :camo:

http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2013/12/12/2013121201756.html

Jang and his cronies either failed to deposit foreign currency earnings into Kim's overseas accounts or were caught skimming off them.


----------



## CougarKing

cupper said:
			
		

> Or maybe the Aunt finally had him offed for leaving the toilet seat up one too many times.



Your remark be actually be closer to the truth considering how unscathed she seems after what happened to her husband:

From the Canadian Press via Yahoo News



> *Role of North Korean leader's aunt appears untouched after her husband's shocking execution*
> The Canadian PressBy Hyung-Jin Kim
> 
> SEOUL, South Korea - The aunt of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has been named to an ad-hoc state committee, the country's official media reported, an indication that the execution of her husband and the country's No. 2 has not immediately diminished her influence.
> 
> *The fate of Kim Kyong Hui — a younger sister of late leader Kim Jong Il, Kim Jong Un's father — was questioned after North Korea announced Friday that her husband, Jang Song Thaek, was executed for trying to overthrow the government.
> 
> But her name appeared in a state media dispatch late Saturday alongside top officials on a funeral committee for fellow senior Workers' Party official Kim Kuk Thae, who died Friday. Her name appeared sixth in the dispatch, which listed more than 50 funeral committee members.*
> 
> Considered extremely close to her brother Kim Jong Il, Kim Kyong Hui has risen through the ranks in recent years, helping to groom Kim Jong Un as the country's next leader and eventually take over power after his father's death in late 2011.
> 
> *The 67-year-old holds a slew of top posts, including ruling Workers' Party secretary and four-star army general. Some analysts said she may be spared her husband's fate because she is directly related to the country's founder, Kim Il Sung, grandfather of Kim Jong Un.
> 
> Analysts said the dispatch suggested that Kim Kyong Hui's political standing hasn't been immediately affected by her husband's execution and that she may have even given her nephew the green light to fire Jang — but not to have him executed.
> 
> "Jang's purging may have taken place after Kim Kyong Hui consented to it," said analyst Hong Hyun-ik from the private Sejong Institute in South Korea. "She may have opposed Jang's death sentence, but she could have agreed on Jang being dismissed."*
> 
> Kim and Jang, who married in 1972, had a dysfunctional marriage in recent years, and their only daughter committed suicide in 2006 while studying in Paris, according to South Korean media reports.
> 
> If her health condition allows it, Kim Kyong Hui is expected to join other top officials Tuesday and attend ceremonies marking the second anniversary of Kim Jong Il's death, Hong said.
> 
> Looking pale and gaunt lately in official appearances, Kim Kyong Hui's public activities have been sharply reduced in recent months amid media reports that she suffers liver, heart and other ailments.
> 
> Kim Jin Moo, a North Korea expert at the state-run Korea Institute for Defence Analyses in Seoul, said that Jang's execution may have been possible because Kim Kyong Hui had not been actively engaged in politics due to her reported health problems.
> 
> Jang's execution was shocking because it was carried out only a few days after his dismissal from all posts. It's unusual for the country to publicize any purging and execution of senior officials to the outside world. Many North Korea observers said that the moves were aimed at strengthening Kim's power, but that they also indicate Kim still lacks the same absolute power held by his father.
> 
> Kim, the North Korea expert, said that Jang's execution and frequent personnel reshuffles that Kim Jong Un has undertaken over the past two years show that the young leader doesn't appear to have confidence in who to trust as he reshapes a government dotted with people from his father's era.
> 
> "Dictators always feel uneasy," he said.


----------



## tomahawk6

Jang put alot of his own people in key positions in the government and military.I think there will be alot more executions.The old guard are on their way out literally,to be replaced by younger people.


----------



## CougarKing

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> Jang Song Thaek was China's man in Pyongyang; he was the top official who went back and forth to Beijing, reassuring the men in the _Zhongnanhai_ that there was some sort of a plan in the DPRK, a method to the apparent madness.



Inklings of internal disunity? Or was Kim Jong Un's uncle Jang a bit presumptuous in thinking he could carve out his own internal fiefdom from North Korea's lucrative natural resource deals with China? 


National Post link



> *North Korea’s Kim Jong-un executed his uncle over lucrative business deals: South Korean intelligence*
> 
> SEOUL, South Korea – South Korea’s intelligence chief said Monday that Jang Song Thaek, the uncle of the North Korean leader Kim Jong-un who was executed this month, apparently had not plotted a coup as Pyongyang had said,* but had fallen victim to intrigue within the country’s elite over lucrative business deals*, according to lawmakers in Seoul.
> 
> Jang, 67, who was once believed to be the second most powerful man in North Korea, was executed on Dec. 12 on charges of plotting to overthrow his nephew’s government, four days after he was hauled out of a meeting of the ruling Workers’ Party at which he was stripped of all titles. The highly unusual public purge and execution of a member of the North’s ruling family has set off widespread speculation about the possibility of a power struggle within the secretive regime.
> 
> During a closed-door meeting Monday of the South Korean National Assembly’s intelligence committee, Nam Jae-joon, director of the National Intelligence Service, disputed Pyongyang’s assertion that Jang had tried to usurp his nephew’s power. Rather, he said, Jang and his associates *had provoked the enmity of rivals within the North’s elite by dominating lucrative business deals, such as the sale of North Korean coal to China.*
> 
> “There had been friction building up among the agencies of power in North Korea over privileges and over the abuse of power by Jang Song Thaek and his associates,” Nam was quoted as saying.
> 
> 
> (...)
> 
> Nam, according to the lawmakers, said *Jang’s rivals had gone to Kim with accusations of corruption on the part of Jang and his circle. When Jang’s associates, perhaps too confident of Jang’s influence with Kim, resisted the top North Korean leader’s order to give up some of their business arrangements, Kim saw it as a challenge to his authority, according to Nam*.
> 
> “It appears that there is no big problem with Kim Jong Un’s grip on power, because the purge of Jang Song Thaek was not the result of a power struggle,” Nam was quoted as saying.
> 
> *Still, Nam said, the fact that such behind-the-scenes squabbling had spun out of control, to the point that Kim ordered his own uncle’s execution, raises questions about the regime’s internal unity.*
> 
> 
> “The fissure within the regime could accelerate if it further loses popular support,” the lawmakers quoted Nam as saying.
> 
> Nam did not reveal the sources of his agency’s intelligence, but he said his spies had learned of Jang’s detention as early as mid-November.
> 
> Jang was the husband of Kim Kyong Hui, the only sister of Kim’s late father, the longtime North Korean leader Kim Jong Il. Jang appeared to have rapidly expanded his influence since Kim Jong Il suffered a stroke in 2008, and he and his wife were widely seen as caretakers for the family regime as it groomed Kim Jong Un as heir.
> 
> *Jang’s rising profile coincided with the purges of top generals and the curtailing of the military’s lucrative rights to trade in coal, iron ore and other natural resources, exports of which to China have become the biggest components of North Korean trade with the outside world in recent years.*
> 
> The official verdict against Jang on Dec. 12 hinted at the business deals in which Jang and his associates were involved, saying that he had “instructed his stooges to sell coal and other precious underground resources at random.”
> 
> Nam told the committee Monday that Kim Jong Un’s aunt had retained her position in the North Korean hierarchy, while the purge of Jang’s other associates continued. But he denied news reports in South Korea and Japan that some of Jang’s associates were seeking political asylum in Seoul and Beijing after fleeing the purge at home.
> 
> *Nam pointed to Vice Marshal Choe Ryong Hae, the top political officer in the North Korean People’s Army, and Kim Won Hong, the head of the North’s secret police and its intelligence chief, as the regime’s new rising figures since Jang’s execution*, according to the two lawmakers
> 
> (...)


----------



## CougarKing

Not a way anyone would want to go...

Overkill would be an understatement.



> *Jang Song-thaek's Aides Executed With Antiaircraft Machine Guns*
> 
> Shocking new details have been revealed about the execution of Jang Song-thaek, Kim Jong Un's uncle.
> 
> The New York Times reports that the Jang's death was the end result of a brutal gun battle between Jang supporters and those of the regime over who controlled key land.
> 
> As the Times tells it, Kim's forces were ordered to take back control over important fishing grounds that Jang had previously seized, but Jang wouldn't give it up without a fight. The battle ended in the death of many of Kim's soldiers. Kim was furious and ordered that Jang's top aides be executed.
> 
> According to the Times, the two men were killed with antiaircraft machine guns rather than regular guns or rifles.
> 
> Yomiuri Shimbun, a Japanese newspaper, reported that Kim was “very drunk” when he ordered the death of Jang's men.
> 
> More at...
> 
> The New York Times
> 
> Huffington Post


----------



## tomahawk6

Dead is dead no matter the means used.Kim Jong Il is earning his bones as the boss of bosses in NORK.Who will be next ? ;D


----------



## CougarKing

More details about the execution of Kim Jong Un's uncle last month: seems Jang became dogfood....literally.





> *Jang's execution bodes ill for China*
> 
> Straits Times link
> 
> (Reuters) THE execution of Jang Song Thaek, the No. 2 man in North Korea, took Beijing by surprise and will adversely affect bilateral relations.
> 
> Beijing's displeasure is expressed through the publication of a detailed account of Jang's brutal execution in Wen Wei Po, its official mouthpiece, in Hong Kong, on Dec 12.
> 
> According to the report, unlike previous executions of political prisoners which were carried out by firing squads with machine guns, Jang was stripped naked and thrown into a cage, along with his five closest aides. *Then 120 hounds, starved for three days, were allowed to prey on them until they were completely eaten up. This is called "quan jue", or execution by dogs.*
> 
> The report said the entire process lasted for an hour, with Mr Kim Jong Un, the supreme leader in North Korea, supervising it along with 300 senior officials.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

A very strong message to the rest of them to play ball his way.


----------



## dapaterson

Bah.  Evil western propaganda.  Obviously, this is clear sign of the blessed, benevolent leader's great love of animals.


----------



## vonGarvin

North Korea is a tourist's paradise:


----------



## GAP

Colin P said:
			
		

> A very strong message to the rest of them to play ball his way.



He needs to remember that this may come back to literally bite him.....


----------



## dimsum

GAP said:
			
		

> He needs to remember that this may come back to literally bite him.....



I see what you did there


----------



## tomahawk6

What does one expect from a dictator ? He made a public example out of his uncle and his cronies.Anyone associated with his uncle is dead or in a labor camp.It sure is a step up from a rash of automobile accidents that killed a number of high ranking officials.


----------



## Hudyma

Technoviking said:
			
		

> North Korea is a tourist's paradise:



It'll be one hell of a thrill when Kim sets the hounds on you...


----------



## AJFitzpatrick

Colin P said:
			
		

> A very strong message to the rest of them to play ball his way.



5 a side with baskets ?

http://www.ctvnews.ca/sports/a-great-idea-for-the-world-dennis-rodman-angrily-defends-trip-to-north-korea-1.1627113


----------



## a_majoor

An update on the idea of the collapse of the DPRK. This could be seen as a followup (but nowhere near as detailed or nuanced) to Robert Kaplan's article When North Korea Falls:

http://nationalinterest.org/print/commentary/the-complex-calculus-north-korean-collapse-9683



> *The Complex Calculus of a North Korean Collapse*
> Share on emailShare on twitterShare on facebookShare on digg| More Sharing ServicesMore [1]
> Doug Bandow [2]
> |
> January 9, 2014
> 
> The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea remains a sui generis communist monarchy [3] wrapped in mystery, prone to sporadic brinkmanship and violent spasms. The young leader’s surprise execution of his uncle suggests regime instability, which might spark new international provocations for domestic political purposes.
> 
> The latest events have rekindled predictions of a possible North Korean collapse. The greatest danger is that the US would get drawn into the resulting chaos and conflict. Warned [4] the Rand Corporation’s Bruce W. Bennett: “Inadequately prepared, the ROK and the United States could suffer many serious consequences, including a failed or aborted intervention, a destabilization of the region, and possibly broader warfare.”
> 
> The Korean peninsula became a U.S. security concern when the US and Soviet Union divided the former Japanese colony after Tokyo’s World War II surrender. Two competing and hostile states emerged, leading to the Korean War. The Truman administration intervened to prevent the DPRK from conquering the South; U.S. troops remained.
> 
> Today, however, the Republic of Korea possesses roughly 80 times the North’s GDP and more than twice the latter’s population. Seoul could do whatever it takes to defend itself. The DPRK retains sizeable armed forces but lacks advanced weaponry, combined arms training, adequate human capital, and quality industrial infrastructure. Neither the People’s Republic of China nor Russia would back a North Korean attack. Even Kim probably recognizes that the North would lose.
> 
> More likely is a North Korean collapse. Bennett has argued that “There is a reasonable probability that North Korean totalitarianism will end in the foreseeable future.” Columnist Steven Metz recently contended [5]: “The question is not whether the Kim dynasty will fail but when.” Three years ago analyst John Guardiano said the North would “inevitably [6]” implode.
> 
> Of course, the Kim dynasty has outlived the Soviet Union by more than two decades. The DPRK may continue to surprise the West with its resilience.
> 
> Nevertheless, the system is under increasing stress. Metz observed: “The execution could be a sign that the cohesion of the North Korean elite is crumbling. If so, it is the beginning of the end for the parasitic Kim dynasty.” Jang’s elimination suggests weakness [7], not strength. Jang’s relatives are being imprisoned at home and recalled from abroad; his wife, Kim’s aunt by blood, has disappeared from public view.
> 
> Any future political battle could turn even more violent. A breakdown of one-man rule in what Bennett called a “failing state” risks a political free-for-all. The North has never tried power-sharing, or any kind of collective leadership. Concluded Bennett: “The division of the North into factions would likely precipitate civil war, as at least some of the factions will seek primacy and eventual control of all of North Korea.” Moreover, the regime or even one faction could strike outward to rally internal support.
> 
> Metz posited “widespread, protracted internal conflict that could make even the Syrian civil war pale by comparison.” The resulting hardship could exceed that resulting from the 1990s famine, which killed a half million or more North Koreans. We should not expect a peaceful, German-style resolution.
> 
> Although most people presume reunification would follow a North Korean collapse, Bennett warned that “China could take political control of much of the North, likely in cooperation with one or more North Korean factions. A failure to achieve Korean unification in these circumstances could doom Korea to division for at least many more decades.”
> 
> What should Washington do? Guardiano advocated unilateral American intervention: “sooner or later, the U.S. military is going to have to deal with North Korea. And, when we do, we likely will have to occupy and rebuild the country just as we have done in Iraq and are now doing in Afghanistan.”
> 
> Seoul might not approve of the Pentagon turning the North into an American colony. More likely, the South would lead any Western military effort. Argued Bennett, the ROK could “decide to intervene in such a crisis with U.S. assistance and seek Korean unification.”
> 
> However, the PRC also would be tempted to act militarily—to prevent mass refugee flows into China’s border provinces, safeguard Chinese economic interests, and ensure friendly political control in Pyongyang. Beijing’s incentive to act would be even stronger if U.S. forces entered as well.
> 
> Military intervention would be no cakewalk. The Kim dynasty has taught the population that Americans and their South Korean puppets are the enemy; North Koreans might offer little warmer welcome to the PRC. The DPRK military or individual units could fight conventionally or resort to guerrilla combat. Worse would be a clash between allied and Chinese forces. Worried Bennett: “The forces of both sides would have significant incentives to advance rapidly into the North, leading to a risk of accidental combat between them. In the zeal of the moment, the inevitable accidents could escalate into major combat between the ROK and U.S. forces and the Chinese forces.”
> 
> In short, a North Korean implosion could be an explosion as well, with catastrophic consequences radiating outward across the region. Concerned governments should begin pondering likely contingencies.
> 
> South Korea has the most to do. It should adopt reunification legislation, since under its constitution North Koreans currently are considered ROK nationals, which would complicate the treatment of anyone who might warrant punishment or even questioning. Now would be a good time to consider such questions as property ownership, status of foreign (i.e., Chinese) contracts, treatment of human rights criminals, amnesty provisions, and more. The right answers might help ease concerns among more responsible Northern elites over possible reunification.
> 
> However, consultations should not stop in Seoul. Metz proposed “multinational discussions to assess the short-term and long-term challenges of a North Korean collapse,” though the quieter the better since “doing so openly will inflame the Kim regime’s expansive paranoia and increase the chances of disastrous miscalculation.” So far, China has been reluctant to enter talks regarding its ally, but relations between the two states have frayed. The execution of Jang, a friend of Beijing, introduced new tensions in the relationship.
> 
> Desirable would be regional cooperation, including providing forces for reconstruction duties. Bennett figured that between 260,000 and 400,000 troops might be necessary to “stabilize” the North. One option would be a multinational force dominated by the ROK and China but including troops from other Asian nations (though not Japan, for reasons of history).
> 
> The U.S. should limit its role. Humanitarian aid should primarily come from multinational agencies and the North’s neighbors, especially South Korea, China, and Japan, which have the most at stake.
> 
> America should reject any direct military role. In no case should the US be involved in occupying and pacifying the North. Bennett argued that “the ROK will have insufficient forces, even with significant U.S. participation, to fully handle the various challenges of North Korean collapse.” Obviously Seoul needs to take more seriously the possibility and consequences of a North Korean collapse. The U.S. could provide logistical aid for any South Korean military move, though by now Seoul should be able to support its own forces.
> 
> Washington also might consider limited operations to secure nuclear materials and other WMDs. However, even this mission would be complicated: China is closer to many facilities, such the Yongbyon nuclear complex, and might quickly occupy them. Moreover, the ROK might decide that reunification was a convenient opportunity to augment their own military capabilities. While such actions would be undesirable, they still would deny WMD access to non-state actors, Washington’s most important objective.
> 
> Most importantly, the US should ease China’s fears about America’s role in a reunified Korea. Although troops along the Yalu might seem minor compared to air and sea forces in the Asia-Pacific, the former would be a potent symbol and resurrect memories from the Korean War. Beijing would see less need for a buffer state if there were no U.S. ground forces against which to buffer. (China also might see a united democratic Korea as a threatening draw for millions of ethnic Koreans in the former’s border provinces; only the ROK could address this concern.)
> 
> Kim Jong-un celebrated Jang’s execution as demonstrating national unity. More likely, however, the regime’s foundation is cracking. Still, the North could surprise its adversaries and survive for years or decades more.
> 
> But the North’s neighbors should prepare for “what if?” Washington’s most important role would be to limit expectations as to what the US would do. Ultimately, Pyongyang is a South Korean and Asian rather than an American responsibility.
> 
> Doug Bandow is a Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute. A former Special Assistant to President Ronald Reagan, he is the author and editor of several books, including Foreign Follies: America’s New Global Empire (Xulon).
> 
> Image [8]: U.S. Army Flickr.
> 
> More by
> Doug Bandow [2]
> Topics: Failed States [9]
> Regions: North Korea [10].
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
> 
> Source URL (retrieved on Jan 10, 2014): http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/the-complex-calculus-north-korean-collapse-9683
> Links:
> [1] http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php?v=250&amp;username=nationalinterest
> [2] http://nationalinterest.org/profile/doug-bandow
> [3] http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-17046941
> [4] http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR300/RR331/RAND_RR331.pdf
> [5] http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/13450/strategic-horizons-when-north-korea-collapses-u-s-must-be-ready
> [6] http://spectator.org/articles/38529/more-guns-less-butter
> [7] http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/the-fall-jang-song-taek-9539
> [8] http://www.flickr.com/photos/soldiersmediacenter/761432440/sizes/m/in/photolist-2ahxkw-6pCgsU-4Qzooh-4QvcH8-iBbVY8-74dZDT-5d6wSv-aDAHHy-d7Nrbf-4q8BNJ-4jiLK3-a6e66Z-ayX7rJ-4tg37w-a6Tksr-9eBB9o-edwQRT-75TtKu-fh5WDj-a63Q4n-5daRBS-d267oh-awWXBb-8DpjFd-cZKcim/
> [9] http://nationalinterest.org/topic/security/failed-states
> [10] http://nationalinterest.org/region/asia/northeast-asia/north-korea


----------



## Edward Campbell

I think author/scolar, _Cato Institute_ fellow Doug Bandow has taken leave of his senses in the article posted above

He quotes a source who says that _“sooner or later, the U.S. military is going to have to deal with North Korea. And, when we do, we likely will have to occupy and rebuild the country just as we have done in Iraq and are now doing in Afghanistan.”_ With what, for heavens' sake, in what century can the US assemble enough forces to take on a million man nuclear tipped army with an unhappy, even fatally angry China just across the border? It is utter, complete, total *madness* - a recipe for US suicide. And he's suggesting the US has "rebuilt" Iraq and Afghanistan? In what universe is he living?

Reunification, under South Korean leadership, is the only acceptable outcome, and that cannot, will not happen until the US withdraws from the Asian mainland.

US intervention is a juvenile military wet dream.


----------



## jeffb

The only possible hope is that the North Korean army lacks the logistical abilities to supply its million man army. I strongly doubt that however given the distances involved in that area and the fact that they will have the ability to choose the time of any strike. Realistically, I think the only military option would be nuclear in facing the North Koreans in a determined fight. I'm pretty sure that the fallout from this, both political and radiological, would make this option prohibitive. 

ERC is right (as usual), US military intervention would be a disaster and probably result in nothing more then the loss of the 2nd US ID. The US just needs to keep enough forces there for deterrence purposes and wait for North Korean to implode under its own inertia.


----------



## dimsum

jeffb said:
			
		

> ERC is right (as usual), US military intervention would be a disaster and probably result in nothing more then the loss of the 2nd US ID. *The US just needs to keep enough forces there for deterrence purposes and wait for North Korean to implode under its own inertia.*



The way I (probably too simply) see it, it's a Catch-22:

US can't/won't leave SK in case NK (possibly backed by China) invades SK
China wants a buffer to the US in the Korean peninsula, therefore supporting NK through thick and thin
NK, with China's support, will continue to threaten SK and ensuring US support in SK

From the latest purge, I can see China's support wavering _a bit_, but I can't see China letting NK implode (as much as we all wish it would).


----------



## Edward Campbell

I continue to maintain that China wants a *unified* Korea under South Korean control and management. South Korea is enormously valuable to China as an investor and customer; North Korea is valuable, primarily, as a _tool_ to keep America and Japan off balance.

South Korea has a large and capable army. The US Army's contribution to South Korea's defence is modest; it's a tripwire. The USAF and USN are much, Much, MUCH more important, but they can still support SK from island bases. 

If the US withdrew from Korea - leaving large air and naval forces in the region, but not on the Asian mainland - then I believe China would, quickly, orchestrate the demise of the DPRK and the rapid reunification of Korea with its capital and political system in Seoul.


----------



## a_majoor

Well I managed to miss the part about the US intervention since later in the article (and what drew my attention) the author also says:



> America should reject any direct military role. In no case should the US be involved in occupying and pacifying the North. Bennett argued that “the ROK will have insufficient forces, even with significant U.S. participation, to fully handle the various challenges of North Korean collapse.” Obviously Seoul needs to take more seriously the possibility and consequences of a North Korean collapse. The U.S. could provide logistical aid for any South Korean military move, though by now Seoul should be able to support its own forces.
> 
> Washington also might consider limited operations to secure nuclear materials and other WMDs. However, even this mission would be complicated: China is closer to many facilities, such the Yongbyon nuclear complex, and might quickly occupy them. Moreover, the ROK might decide that reunification was a convenient opportunity to augment their own military capabilities. While such actions would be undesirable, they still would deny WMD access to non-state actors, Washington’s most important objective.



I wonder if the article was mishandled in the editorial process, since advocating both positions cancells out?


----------



## Edward Campbell

Thucydides said:
			
		

> Well I managed to miss the part about the US intervention since later in the article (and what drew my attention) the author also says:
> 
> I wonder if the article was mishandled in the editorial process, since advocating both positions cancells out?




I fairness to Mr. Bandow, he was providing background and was quoting writer/analyst/blogger John Guardiano who made the comments to which I took exception. Mr Bandow actually ended up sharing some of my views, but not until after he had set up a completely ridiculous, cloud coo-coo land straw man argument.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

I suspect that rather than an implosion, you either see a gradually collapse with Kim become a ruler of a city state with each Province doing their own thing while nominally bowing to the Capital or Kim will start feeling loss of control, killing many senior people, who them feel they have nothing left to lose and a tragic accident wipes out the whole family, whereupon a "Congress takes on the heavy burden of running the country in the Spirit of the Great Leader" and in the back power is divvyed up, people disappear and a new order similar to China and/or Myammer appears. The West and China uses this as an excuse to normalize relations and quiet lucrative trade deals are inked.


----------



## CougarKing

Seems Seoul was ready to strike the North in retaliation for DPRK's shelling of an ROK-held island in 2010. 

Defense News



> *Gates Says US Prevented South Korea Airstrike on North*
> 
> SEOUL — South Korea declined to comment Wednesday on revelations that the United States talked it down from launching a retaliatory airstrike on North Korea in 2010.
> 
> The claims were made in the newly published memoir of former US Defense Secretary Robert Gates, in which he also describes former South Korean president Roh Moo-Hyun as “probably a little bit crazy.”
> 
> *The 2010 incident followed the North’s surprise shelling of a South Korean border island in November of that year.
> 
> The attack triggered what Gates labeled a “very dangerous crisis,” with the South Korean government of then-President Lee Myung-Bak initially insisting on a robust military response.
> 
> “South Korea’s original plans for retaliation were, we thought, disproportionately aggressive, involving both aircraft and artillery,” Gates wrote in his memoir*.
> 
> “We were worried the exchanges could escalate dangerously,” he added.
> 
> Over the next few days, Gates said he, US President Barack Obama and then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton had numerous telephone calls with their South Korean counterparts in an effort to calm things down.
> 
> (...)


----------



## CougarKing

The sad story of Kim's Uncle Jang continues to provide more and more grisly details: "Dear Leader" had the WHOLE FAMILY of his Uncle Jang executed as well (the aunt is the one Kim Jong Un has a blood relation to, so he essentially had all her in-laws executed). 



> Voice of Russia
> 
> The whole family of one of North Korean leader, Kim Jong Un's uncles, Jang Song Thaek, has been executed on Un's order reports South Korea's Yonhap News Agency, with reference to multiple sources. Jang Song Thaek himself, once a high-ranking official, was executed earlier.
> 
> *A source claiming to be aware of the situation in North Korea says that the entire family, including babies, was executed*.
> 
> According to data in the agencies' possession, in December, *Jang Song Thaek's elder sister and her husband Jon Yong-Jin, who was North Korea's Ambassador to Cuba and Jang Song Thaek's nephew Jang Yong Chol, Ambassador to Malaysia, and Jang Yong Chol's two sons, both aged about 20, were recalled to Pyongyang and executed.*
> 
> Jang Song Thaek also had two brothers, but both had earlier died from illness, perhaps explaining why the families of Mr. Jang's sisters, including their little grandchildren, also became victims.
> 
> (...)


----------



## George Wallace

Yet another madman in power.


----------



## tomahawk6

North Korea's leadership is a criminal enterprise.There are factions and everyone knows what will happen to them if they plot against Dear Leader.Jang's faction lost and have paid the piper.With the continued support of the Army, Kim Jong Il will be the front man for the organization.


----------



## George Wallace

Some day someone will wise up and his reign will come tumbling down.  Appearances, as we have seen, are not always what they seem.  There is still the possibility that there can be a secretive group, not necessarily within North Korea, plotting his demise.


----------



## CougarKing

Let's wait and see if this supposedly larger missile is just a fake intentionally displayed to deceive the US/West or the real thing...



> *Korea building missile launch pad capable of aiming at U.S.: report*
> 
> North Korea is improving one of its missile launch sites and may soon be able to fire rockets large enough to hit mainland United States, according to experts.
> 
> *
> Recent satellite images appear to show that one of the country's launch stations has been modified to accommodate an intercontinental missile 25 percent larger than one it fired into space in Dec. 2012,* according to a report by Johns Hopkins University’s U.S.-Korea Institute (USKI) published Wednesday.
> 
> The report added that the launch pad, which could be ready as early as March, would allow for "a more robust rocket test program in the future involving larger space launch vehicles and road-mobile ballistic missiles able to attack targets in Northeast Asia and the United States."
> 
> Read more here...
> 
> NBC News


----------



## CougarKing

North Korea's shadow looming over the next Olympic Winter Games in the city of Pyeongchang, South Korea:

Canada.com News



> *2018 Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang try to escape the nuclear shadow of North Korea*
> 
> SOCHI, Russia — The Sochi Olympics have hardly begun and already organizers of the next Winter Games in South Korea have shown up in southern Russia to tell the world that *Pyeongchang will be ready to host the quadrennial in 2018*.
> 
> Once they’d answered a series of vacuous questions from Russian journalists about how wonderful everything has been in Sochi, Kim Jin-Sun, the lead organizer of the next Winter Olympics, quietly informed his interlocutors that South Korea’s first Winter Olympics are expected to cost $7 billion — or less than one-seventh of the astronomical tab Russians have been stuck with to pay for the Sochi fortnight.
> 
> About $2-billion of that money will be spent on sports arenas and pistes, he said. The rest will be spent on major infrastructure projects, such as a 120-km high-speed rail line from Seoul to the mountain resort.
> 
> *The elephant in the room for Pyeongchang, as it is for everything South Korea undertakes, is the unpredictable behaviour of its nuclear-armed northern cousins, whose artillery guns can easily reach the next city to host the Winter Games.* That is one of the reasons why the South Korean bid was rejected twice by the International Olympic Committee before winning selection on the first ballot three years ago.
> 
> But that decision was made before the even more mercurial Kim Jong-un took over from his father. In a portend of what may lie ahead, South Korea is once again on high alert this week because of *intelligence reports that North Korea is about to explode its fourth underground nuclear test*.
> 
> (...)


----------



## The Bread Guy

:tsktsk:  
BAD North Korea!  


> A wide array of crimes against humanity, arising from “policies established at the highest level of State,” have been committed and continue to take place in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, according to a UN report released Monday, which also calls for urgent action by the international community to address the human rights situation in the country, including referral to the International Criminal Court.
> 
> In a 400-page set of linked reports and supporting documents, based on first-hand testimony from victims and witnesses, the UN Commission of Inquiry on human rights in the DPRK has documented in great detail the “unspeakable atrocities” committed in the country.
> 
> “The gravity, scale and nature of these violations reveal a State that does not have any parallel in the contemporary world,” the Commission -- established by the Human Rights Council in March 2013 -- says in a report that is unprecedented in scope.
> 
> “These crimes against humanity entail extermination, murder, enslavement, torture, imprisonment, rape, forced abortions and other sexual violence, persecution on political, religious, racial and gender grounds, the forcible transfer of populations, the enforced disappearance of persons and the inhumane act of knowingly causing prolonged starvation,” the report says, adding that “Crimes against humanity are ongoing in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea because the policies, institutions and patterns of impunity that lie at their heart remain in place.” ....



North Korea's response:  Lies!  All lies!


> .... North Korea's diplomatic mission in Geneva dismissed the findings. "We will continue to strongly respond to the end to any attempt of regime-change and pressure under the pretext of 'human rights protection'," it said.
> 
> The two-page North Korean statement, in English, said the report was an "instrument of a political plot aimed at sabotaging the socialist system" and defaming the country.
> 
> Rights violations listed in the document and forwarded to Pyongyang for comment several weeks ago, "do not exist in our country," the statement added ....


----------



## 57Chevy

Shared with provisions of the Copyright Act

North Koreans really ARE kept in the dark: Astonishing NASA picture shows backward communist state as a black patch on the planet

 Mail Online  24 Feb

North Korea appears like a black hole in a sea of light in this remarkable NASA satellite image of the isolated communist state.

Taken at night on January 30 from the International Space Station (ISS) this picture shows North Korea almost completely devoid of lights.

In stark contrast to the south of the image South Korea is shown bathed in light as is China to the north both clearly visible bustling with energy.

North Korea - which is ruled by supreme leader Kim Jong-un - is almost completely black appearing to show a distinct lack of power or energy supply.

The only exception is the country's capital Pyongyang to the south east of the nation which is illuminated by city lights.

However the rest of the country - which has a population of 24 million - is pitch black looking almost like a sea between South Korea and China. 

more at link...


----------



## CougarKing

Anyone wonder how many ex-boyfriends she's fed to the dogs?

National Post



> *‘Eccentricity to the point of weirdness’: Kim Jong-un’s erratic younger sister elevated to key role in North Korean regime
> 
> Kim Yo-jong now North Korea leader Kim Jong-un's key advisor*
> 
> 
> *The younger sister of Kim Jong-un has been elevated to a key role in the North Korean regime and is on the verge of becoming Mr Kim’s closest adviser, despite her youth and reported erratic behaviour.*
> 
> Kim Yo-jong, 24, emerged in the run-up to the March 9 election in North Korea, in which her brother won 100% of the vote in his constituency. Kim Kyong-hui, Mr Kim’s frail and alcoholic aunt, has been conspicuous by her absence since the election. Her husband, Jang Song-thaek, was publicly denounced and executed in December.
> 
> That void has apparently been filled by Ms. Kim, who was said by state media to be “a core worker of the Workers’ Party Central Committee.”
> 
> Ms. Kim studied in Switzerland at the same time as her older brother. Media reports have suggested that she is already in charge of her brother’s daily schedule, “as well as coordinating every detail of his fashion and hair style,” the JoongAng Daily reported.
> 
> 
> (...EDITED)




Plus more about Beijing's influence over Pyongyang...



> *"Growing Chinese Influence Worries North Korean Officials"*
> 
> Chosun
> 
> 
> * " Kim said North Korean officials are aware of problems like mounting trade deficits and loss of capital, but there is no alternative. The North is handing over mining rights and licenses to develop special economic zones to China, but at the same time the regime "doesn't trust China.”*
> 
> Kim recalled that nation founder Kim Il-sung, who signed a friendship treaty with China in 1961, warned North Koreans not to trust the Chinese. "This is why North Korea is unwilling to give up its nuclear weapons despite pressure from China."
> 
> North Koreans living in the border regions are so difficult to control that Kim Jong-il once asked whether they were part of North Korea at all. "If the central government issues orders, officials in the provinces just file false reports to maintain their privileges, which has become a chronic problem," Kim said. "Kim Jong-un basically just rules over Pyongyang, and even the North’s second city of Hamhung is a different world." "
> 
> (...EDITED)


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## 57Chevy

Leadership  :

Someone laughed  :nod:

 All Men In North Korea Are Now Reportedly Required to Get the Same Haircut as Kim Jong Un  is shared with provisions of The Copyright Act


----------



## CougarKing

57Chevy said:
			
		

> Leadership  :
> 
> Someone laughed  :nod:
> 
> All Men In North Korea Are Now Reportedly Required to Get the Same Haircut as Kim Jong Un  is shared with provisions of The Copyright Act



For those wondering how the "haircut" looks, check the picture of this road-side vendor in China who is reputed to be an exact duplicate of North Korea's leader.    ;D


----------



## CougarKing

More nuclear brinksmanship...  

Defense News



> *North Korea Vows Not To Rule Out a New Nuclear Test*
> Mar. 30, 2014 - 11:12AM   |   By AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE
> 
> SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA —* North Korea vowed not to rule out a “new form” of nuclear test Sunday after the UN Security Council condemned its latest ballistic missile launch amid simmering tensions over Seoul’s joint military drills with Washington.*
> 
> Pyongyang has carried out a series of rocket and short-range missile launches in recent weeks which have prompted stern reactions from South Korea and the United States.
> 
> *On Wednesday it upped the ante by test-firing two mid-range ballistic missiles capable of striking Japan, sparking condemnation from the United Nations Security Council (UNSC).*
> 
> “(We) would not rule out a new form of a nuclear test for bolstering up (our) nuclear deterrence,” Pyongyang’s foreign ministry said in a statement carried by the North’s state-run KCNA news agency.
> 
> (...EDITED)


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## CougarKing

Reminds me of the time a couple of years ago when North Korea shelled an island held by South Korean troops. 

From AFP



> *2 Koreas trade shots across maritime border*
> 
> By:  Agence France-Presse
> March 31, 2014 12:19 PM
> 
> SEOUL -- (UPDATE - 12:48 p.m.) *The two Koreas traded live fire into the sea across their disputed maritime border on Monday, after Seoul said a North Korean military exercise dropped shells into South Korean waters.
> 
> "Some of the shells fired by North Korea dropped in our area and our side responded with fire," a spokesman for the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff told AFP.*
> 
> There was no indication that either side was firing at any particular target.
> 
> Officials on the South Korean border islands of Yeonpyeong and Baengnyeong said residents were being evacuated to shelters as a precaution.
> 
> The North Korean live fire exercise began at 12:15 pm (0315 GMT) and the South began responding with its own volley of artillery shells within 30 minutes.
> 
> "For the moment, both sides are firing into the sea," the JCS spokesman said.
> 
> North Korea regularly conducts live-fire drills but, in an unusual move, it had notified the South of Monday's exercise in advance.
> 
> The JCS had immediately warned it would respond in the event of any shells falling on its side of the border.
> 
> (...EDITED)


----------



## CougarKing

Russia hoping to further open up North Korea's economy?

Chosun



> *Russia Eyes Kaesong Industrial Complex*
> 
> North Korea and Russia will discuss the possibility of Russian companies opening factories in the *joint-Korean Kaesong Industrial Complex*, Radio Free Asia reported Friday.
> 
> Russia's Far East Development Minister Alexander Galushka visited the North for five days last week to explore ways of boosting business cooperation, according to the radio station. Galushka apparently discussed improving business conditions for Russian companies in North Korea, measures to protect Russian investments, and multiple-entry visas.
> 
> Other points on the agenda were development of *North Korea's Rajin-Sonbong economic zones, steps to modernize the North's mines, power plant projects, rail lines connecting Russia and Korean Peninsula and a gas pipeline from Russia to South Korea via the North.*
> 
> *The two countries hope to boost bilateral trade to US$1 billion by 2020. *According to the South's Korea Trade Investment Promotion Agency, North Korea recently imported Russian-made heavy equipment for unloading cargo at dockyards.
> 
> (...EDITED)


----------



## CougarKing

Seems the North was conducting surveillance of the area during the last artillery barrage described earlier:

From the Christian Science Monitor via Yahoo News:



> *North Korean 'drone' recovered in South after exchange of artillery fire*
> 
> North Korea fired missiles into disputed waters Monday, raising tensions on the peninsular. The
> discovery of a suspected North Korean drone points to increased surveillance in the area.
> 
> (...EDITED)


----------



## tomahawk6

Japan will shoot at any missile launch from North Korea from now until the end of the month.They will get to try out their Aegis system in a real world scenario. :camo:

http://news.yahoo.com/japan-orders-military-strike-north-korea-missile-launches-035401914--sector.html;_ylt=AwrBJSCofj9TaTQAkX_QtDMD

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan will strike any North Korean ballistic missile that threatens to hit Japan in the coming weeks after Pyongyang recently fired medium-range missiles, a government source said on Saturday.


----------



## tomahawk6

The US is stepping up to the plate with 2 Aegis destroyers and Global Hawk.

http://www.armytimes.com/article/20140406/NEWS08/304060016/U-S-sending-2-warships-Japan-counter-North-Korea

TOKYO — U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel delivered a two-pronged warning to Asia Pacific nations Sunday, announcing that the U.S. will send two additional ballistic missile destroyers to Japan to counter the North Korean threat, and saying China must better respect its neighbors.


----------



## a_majoor

With the proliferation of ballistic missiles and Anti Access/Area Denial threats growing in the region, I would not be surprised to see a lot more theater missile defense activity in the region, either purchasing of already existing systems like the Israeli Arrow/David's Sling/Iron Dome layered system or various land and sea based versions of the Aegis system already in use by the USN and JSDF, followed by the wealthier nations developing their own systems.

A North Korea ringed by ABM systems would also mean that many nations threatened or potentially threatened by Chinese TBMs and AA/AD systems would also have a means of limiting that threat as well.


----------



## CougarKing

The 2nd suspected North Korean drone had pictures of South Korea's "Blue House", their presidential residence, when it was discovered by ROK forces.






_A suspected North Korean drone, reportedly equipped with a Japanese-brand camera, that crashed in Paju on March 24. _

picture source: Nikkei



> *North Korean drones send shock waves across South*
> April 4, 2014 4:48 am JST
> KENTARO OGURA, Nikkei staff writer
> 
> SEOUL -- The apparent ease with which a drone believed to be of North Korean origin shot photos of the presidential palace in Seoul without being detected has some South Koreans worried.
> 
> *Photos of the building complex known as the Blue House were found in the unmanned aircraft, which crashed on March 24 in Paju, near the border with North Korea.* A spokesperson for South Korea's defense ministry said in a news conference on Thursday that the drone is likely to have come from North Korea, partly because Hangul writing on the battery used a spelling unique to the North.
> 
> The drone's body was made of polycarbonate, which is difficult for radar to detect, and it was also painted sky blue to make it less visible to the naked eye. According to South Korean media, a Canon camera was mounted on the bottom and the plane could fly for about two hours, covering a distance of 150km.
> 
> 
> Read more from Nikkei.


----------



## midget-boyd91

After closely examining the pictures of the DPRK drones, I'm fairly confident that I had one of those when I was twelve years old. Could only turn in one direction, and it was written off when it crashed into the side of an RCMP cruiser. (Cruiser is still to blame for being on the road... I mean runway.)


----------



## CougarKing

North Korean drones...made in China. What a surprise.  :boring:



> *Drone incursions over South Korea*
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> *The mini drones operated by North Korea over South Korea are the SKY 09 made in China by the Taiyuan Navigation Technology company. The models operated by North Korea was equipped with a muffler, to reduce the drone’s acoustic signature.*
> Source: Defense update site


----------



## CougarKing

A look at another side of North Korea: its underground market economy that persists despite state controls.

National Post



> *Jesse Kline: Signs of hope in North Korea as people ditch their ‘voluntary servitude’ for the free market*
> 
> (...EDITED)
> 
> 
> *This quiet free market revolution started in the mid-1990s*, when the country stopped receiving food aid from China and the Soviet Union. Coupled with disastrous government policies that prevented aid from getting to some of the hungriest regions and punished people who tried to smuggle or buy their own food, the loss of aid resulted in the great famine, which killed somewhere between 600,000 and 2.5 million people. “Facing the very real possibility of death by starvation,” Lankov writes, “North Koreans reacted in an all too predictable way: They rediscovered the private economy.”
> 
> *
> Despite the fact that private industry remains illegal, people began setting up private farms, often on the side of mountains, and growing food to feed their families and sell to others.* Some people re-purposed unused equipment to produce their own consumer goods. Many of these goods were sold at underground markets; some were smuggled into China and traded for other products.
> 
> 
> *This burgeoning underground market economy was likely one of the main reasons that the North Korean people were able to put a stop to the famine in 1999.* Beginning around the turn of the century, private individuals were producing everything from clothing to cigarettes. Since that time, other businesses have popped up, including private restaurants, warehouses, libraries and shipping companies.
> 
> (...EDITED)


----------



## a_majoor

While good news for the people trapped in the DPRK, this should not be too surprising. A huge black market existed in the former USSR and all Warsaw Pact nations until the fall of the wall, and when the Allied governments took control of the wartime economies during the Second World War, a black market sprang to life almost immediately. And the story of Prohabition in the 1920's or the "Drug Wars" today indicates that where there is a demand, there will always be someone willing to provide the supply end of the economic equation.


----------



## CougarKing

Speaking of North Korea's underground economy, the common folk will need it again as the country is gripped by another drought. This is even as international food aid is diverted for the North Korean government and its military.

Straits Times



> *N. Korea suffering ‘severe’ drought – state media*
> Agence France-Presse
> 
> SEOUL – North Korea is suffering from its worst spring drought in more than three decades, threatening thousands of acres of staple crops, state media said Friday.
> 
> “Severe drought” has been reported across the country, the official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said.
> 
> *Average rainfall between mid-February and late April – a crucial growing period – was 23.5mm, barely 35 percent of the normal seasonal precipitation and the lowest recorded since 1982.*
> 
> (...EDITED)


----------



## CougarKing

And the brinksmanship cycle continues:

 :brickwall:



> *North Korea seen testing engine for intercontinental ballistic missile*
> 
> SEOUL - North Korea has recently conducted engine tests for an intercontinental ballistic missile that could potentially deliver a nuclear warhead to the United States, a U.S. think tank said on Friday.
> 
> North Korea conducted at least one engine test for the KN-08 missile in late March or early April, the think tank 38 North said, marking the latest in a series of tests for a missile believed to have a range of more than 10,000 km (6,000 miles).
> 
> Following the engine tests, the next stage for North Korea would be a test launch of the missile, according to 38 North, which is affiliated with Johns Hopkins University's U.S.-Korea Institute.
> 
> "As this effort progresses, the next technically logical step in the missile's development would be a flight test of the entire system," 38 North said in its report.
> 
> Read more here...
> 
> MSN news


----------



## tomahawk6

The so called #2 has been replaced.I am not sure there is a #2,it would be too dangerous for Kim to allow anyone that much power.Stalin did pretty much the same promoting and then executing officials.Eventually a cabal formed to take out the dictator or else they feared they were next.The same could happen in North Korea.

http://news.yahoo.com/n-korea-number-two-replaced-army-political-chief-023807401.html



> KCNA news agency named Hwang Pyong-So as the director of the Korean People's Army (KPA) General Political Bureau, not Choe Ryong-Hae, who previously held the position.


----------



## CougarKing

This shouldn't come as a surprise...

Source- (UK Telegraph)



> *China plans for North Korean regime collapse leaked*
> 
> 
> *China has drawn up detailed contingency plans for the collapse of the North Korean government, suggesting that Beijing has little faith in the longevity of Kim Jong-un’s regime.*
> 
> Documents drawn up by planners from China’s People’s Liberation Army that were leaked to Japanese media include *proposals for detaining key North Korean leaders and the creation of refugee camps on the Chinese side of the frontier in the event of an outbreak of civil unrest* in the secretive state.
> 
> *The report calls for stepping up monitoring of China’s 879-mile border with North Korea.*
> 
> ***SNIP***
> 
> The Chinese authorities intend to question new arrivals, determine their identities and turn away any who are considered dangerous or undesirable.
> 
> “This only underlines that all the countries with a stake in the stability of north-east Asia need to be talking to each other,” Jun Okumura, a visiting scholar at the Meiji Institute for Global Affairs, told The Telegraph.
> 
> “What we have learned from the collapse of other dictatorships – the Soviet Union, Muammar Gaddafi’s Libya – is that the more totalitarian the regime, the harder and faster they fall,” he added.
> 
> *“This is why we need contingency plans and I am sure that the US and South Korea have extensive plans in place, but the release of Chinese measures is new,” he said.*
> 
> (...EDITED)


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Hopefully he will cut off Chinese contacts, isolating the country even more forcing the Chinese to fund an overthrow to establish a Sino-friendly regime and start the country down the road to recovery.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Some interesting pictures here

http://www.sliptalk.com/2014/05/11/eric-lafforgue/


----------



## CougarKing

Reuters



> *North Korea may be close to developing nuclear missile, some say*
> 
> (Reuters) - North Korea, which this month threatened to carry out a fourth nuclear test, may be closer than previously thought to putting a nuclear warhead on a missile, some experts say, making a mockery of years of U.N. sanctions aimed at curbing such a program.
> 
> North Korea has long boasted of making strides in acquiring a "nuclear deterrent", but there had been general skepticism that it could master the step of miniaturizing a nuclear warhead to mount on a ballistic missile.
> 
> (...EDITED)


----------



## CougarKing

A shortage of building materials? How about corruption being another cause...similar to the way a number of shoddily constructed buildings collapsed in China during the 2008 Sichuan earthquake?  :

Reuters



> *North Korea building collapse may reveal Achilles heel of Kim's regime*
> 
> Reuters
> 
> By Jack Kim and Ju-min Park
> 
> SEOUL (Reuters) - *It may have taken the collapse of an apartment block in an exclusive district of the North Korean capital to reveal the Achilles heel of young leader Kim Jong Un's secretive regime.
> 
> Last week's accident killed the families of people important enough for North Korea to issue an obsequious and unprecedented public apology in a bid to quell public anger*, some analysts said.
> 
> The 23-storey building in Phyongchon, central Pyongyang, was part of a construction boom driven by Kim that includes apartment blocks, roads, bridges and the Masik Ski Resort that has become synonymous with his policy of finishing projects at lightning speed.
> 
> South Korea said the building was home to 92 families and hundreds are feared dead, although the May 13 accident happened in the afternoon and many residents would have been at school or at work.
> 
> *Apartments in buildings taller than 20 stories are normally reserved for party officials, professionals, academics and managers at state agencies*, and those recognized for contribution to the state, the Architecture Institute of (South) Korea said last year.
> 
> (...EDITED)
> 
> *The scale of Kim's construction projects had puzzled outside analysts as to how the impoverished state was able to supply the materials and equipment needed, and some suggested the North may be doing without, or using fewer, crucial materials like steel.*
> 
> (...EDITED)


----------



## CougarKing

CBC via MSN



> Updated: Thu, 22 May 2014 07:28:45 GMT | By The Associated Press, cbc.ca
> 
> *North Korea fires near South Korean warship*
> 
> North Korea fired into disputed waters near a South Korean warship Thursday, a Joint Chiefs of Staff officer said, in the latest sign of tension rising between the bitter rivals in recent weeks.
> 
> The officer said North Korea fired artillery toward a South Korean navy ship engaged in a routine patrol mission near the countries' disputed maritime boundary in the Yellow Sea. The South Korean ship was not hit, said the officer, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of office rules.
> 
> The official could not confirm a report from Yonhap news agency that South Korea's military returned fire at waters near a North Korean warship. South Korean television network YTN said South Korea fired two rounds of artillery shells at the North, but other details were unknown, including whether artillery was fired from sea or land.
> 
> (...EDITED)


----------



## CougarKing

One would think that Tokyo would be more cautious than be so to quick to normalize relations with Kim Jong Un's pariah state, especially considering all those Japanese citizens kidnapped by DPRK agents over the years.



> Chosun link
> 
> *" Japan has decided to lift sanctions imposed on North Korea in 2006 after Pyongyang promised to investigate a bizarre campaign from the 1970s and 80s to abduct Japanese citizens. "*
> 
> (...EDITED)
> 
> " Japan has repeatedly hinted it could lift its sanctions against North Korea if the North is willing to investigate the abductions and reveal what became of the victims. There have also been calls from within the Japanese government to improve ties with North Korea in order to gain more leverage in negotiations with South Korea.
> 
> But few officials here had expected Japan to take such a bold unilateral step amid U.S. efforts to tighten regional cooperation with Seoul and Tokyo and even Beijing in pressuring Pyongyang to scrap its nuclear weapons. "



Plus more here on other issues that concern Japan, South Korea and the US:

Hani News


----------



## CougarKing

The spectre of nuclear weapons proliferation looming again in the rest of (East) Asia?



> *North Korea's Next Nuclear Test Could Serve as a Regional Tipping Point*
> 
> South Korean President Park Geun-hye warned this week that if North Korea conducts another nuclear test, it could prompt the volatile country's neighbors to seek their own nuclear defense. "North Korea would effectively be crossing the Rubicon," she told the Wall Street Journal.
> 
> *Back in March, North Korea threatened to carry out a "new form" of nuclear testing. The country's foreign ministry didn't offer more specifics, but some in the west suspect this means they will test out small nuclear devices that could be carried by intercontinental ballistic missiles.* According to the WSJ, some experts fear that another test — the nation's fourth ever — would enable North Korea to successfully develop such weapons. Most experts believe they have working nuclear weapons, but still lack the capacity to deliver them via rocket.
> 
> *Park thinks that this would prompt neighbors, like Japan and (presumably) South Korea itself, to explore their own nuclear options further.* "It would be difficult for us to prevent a nuclear domino from occurring in this area," she said.
> 
> (...EDITED)
> 
> 
> Yahoo News


----------



## CougarKing

Pyongyang amps up the rhetoric against Beijing:

From Reuters/Business Insider via Yahoo News



> *North Korean Officials Accuse Their Only Ally Of 'Being In Bed With Imperialists' In An Internal Memo*
> 
> Business Insider
> By Jeremy Bender
> 
> REUTERS
> North Korea's Central Party Committee has released an internal decree urging party members to 'abandon the Chinese dream,' according to New Focus International, a media outlet run by prominent North Korean defector Jang Jin-sung.
> The statement was allegedly issued in April during internal party lectures. The decree was particularly inflammatory in its attacks against Xi Jinping, the president of the People's Republic of China.
> 
> New Focus International:
> 
> The lecture materials stated that ‘Xi Jinping is a figure who regards the suffering of the Cultural Revolution as resulting from the repressive nature of the Chinese Communist Party’, and went on to say that ‘China is a bad neighbor that slanders even our nuclear self-defence capabilities, by taking sides with the US’.
> 
> *The edict also alleged that China, "which is enjoying being in bed with the imperialists and dreaming dreams with them, is even openly critical of our nuclear defense capabilities." *
> 
> China and South Korea agreed in May that the nuclear ambitions of North Korea posed a serious threat to regional security. *China couched its agreement in a warning that all of the Korean peninsula should remain nuclear-free.*
> 
> (...EDITED)


----------



## dimsum

S.M.A. said:
			
		

> Pyongyang amps up the rhetoric against Beijing:
> 
> From Reuters/Business Insider via Yahoo News



I wonder how smart that is, considering Beijing is their biggest ally and arguably propping up the regime.  I read in another article that the regime is seeking closer ties with Russia because China had "strayed off the path", which I find very odd considering Russia has gone even further away from Communism/Socialism.


----------



## CougarKing

Remember that ship stopped in Panama shipping North Korean weapons that had been refurbished in Cuba?

Defense News



> *Singapore Charges Firm Over Weapons-Smuggling To North Korea*
> Jun. 10, 2014 - 05:18PM   |   By AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE
> 
> SINGAPORE — *Singapore on Tuesday filed criminal charges against a shipping firm based in the city-state accused of helping smuggle missiles and other military hardware from Cuba to North Korea.*
> 
> The foreign and home affairs ministries said in a joint statement that the charges were filed against Chinpo Shipping Company Pte Ltd and a Singapore citizen identified as Tan Hui Tin.
> 
> Chinpo Shipping transferred $72,000 to a shipping company in Panama on July 8, 2013 in the knowledge the money could be used *“to contribute to the nuclear-related, ballistic-missile-related, or other weapons of mass destruction-related programs or activities” of North Korea*, according to the charge sheet.
> s.
> 
> (...EDITED)


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Dimsum said:
			
		

> I wonder how smart that is, considering Beijing is their biggest ally and arguably propping up the regime.  I read in another article that the regime is seeking closer ties with Russia because China had "strayed off the path", which I find very odd considering Russia has gone even further away from Communism/Socialism.



The NK hopes to convince China that they aren't the only game in town for NK. Russia will be happy to sell stuff to them, cash up front no doubt. But when push comes to shove Russia will say "China your problem" Unless Russia sees that China is such a potential future threat that it needs more friends to in the far east to help counter that. In which case I would back the Vietnamese before NK.


----------



## CougarKing

So if he runs them aground, will he blame the XO and execute the crew for his mistake?



> Defense News intercepts
> 
> *A Day at Sea with Dear Leader – N Korea’s Kim Jong-Un helms a sub*
> Christopher P. Cavas / 13 hours ago
> 
> North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un is a man who gets around. The daily annals of the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) are filled with his exploits, accomplishments, various deeds and, of course, honors and acclamations.
> 
> *Recently, Kim added a spice of variety to his travels by going to sea on one of his Navy’s Romeo-class diesel submarines.*
> 
> (...EDITED)


----------



## Rifleman62

Too bad the sub didn't spring a big leak.


----------



## OldSolduer

Rifleman62 said:
			
		

> Too bad the sub didn't spring a big leak.



Come on now Rifleman! This is so amusing.....I can imagine the advice he gave to the skipper about navigation :

" front pointy end of boat go that way, don't hit rocks....."


----------



## midget-boyd91

Jim Seggie said:
			
		

> Come on now Rifleman! This is so amusing.....I can imagine the advice he gave to the skipper about navigation :
> 
> " front pointy end of boat go that way, don't hit rocks....."



"How do I know we're really under water and you're not trying to play tricks on me? I command you roll down the windows!"


----------



## CougarKing

How much longer till the brinksmanship games begin again so the pariah state can get more food aid?

Reuters



> *North Korea army mobilized as rivers run dry in worst drought in years*
> 
> Reuters
> 
> By James Pearson
> 
> SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korea's rivers, streams and reservoirs are running dry in a prolonged drought, state media said on Monday, prompting the isolated country to mobilize some of its million-strong army to try to protect precious crops.
> 
> The drought is the worst in North Korea for over a decade, state media reports have said, with some areas experiencing low rainfall levels since 1961.
> Office workers, farmers and women have been mobilized to direct water into the dry floors of fields and rice paddies, the official KCNA news agency said.
> 
> In the 1990s, food shortages led to a devastating famine which killed an estimated million people but gave rise to a fledgling black market that in some areas now provides the food the government can no longer supply.
> 
> (...EDITED)


----------



## Colin Parkinson

So the soldiers are being told to piss into the rivers?


----------



## CougarKing

North Korea throwing tantrums over the Seth Rogen comedy film, "The Interview", directed against their leader?  ;D

USA Today



> *Reports: North Korea fires short-range projectiles*
> 
> SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — North Korea fired three short-range projectiles Thursday into the waters off its east coast in a possible move to stoke tensions with Seoul, a South Korean defense official said. Pyongyang's military later criticized alleged South Korean shelling in disputed waters.
> 
> The South Korean official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of department rules, said the projectiles flew about 190 kilometers (120 miles) before harmlessly landing in the water. The projectiles were fired from North Korea's eastern port city of Wonsan, and the South Korean military was investigating the type of projectiles and the North's intentions, the official said.
> 
> (...EDITED)



Any quick google search and one can find pics of the film shooting scenes depicting North Korea which were shot in downtown Vancouver near the law courts/Vancouver art gallery.



> *North Korea Calls New US Movie An 'Act of War'*
> 
> It turns out that North Korea doesn’t find much humor in a big-screen comedy about the assassination of its leader. The movie The Interview is set to hit theaters in October and stars James Franco and Seth Rogen as a talk-show host and his producer who, after landing an interview with Kim Jong Un, are drafted by the CIA to kill him. Today, North Korea released a strongly worded statement through its state-run news agency, saying, “If the United States administration tacitly approves or supports the release of this film, we will take a decisive and merciless countermeasure.” The statement also described the movie as “an act of war that we will never tolerate.”
> 
> 
> Yahoo News


----------



## CougarKing

More DPRK copies of Russian equipment...  :

Defense News

*North Korea Hails Test of 'Breakthrough' Guided Missile*
Jun. 26, 2014 - 08:14PM   |   By AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE



> SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA — North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un observed the test-firing of *a newly developed, high-precision tactical guided missile*, the North’s official KCNA news agency said Friday, hailing a “breakthrough” in the country’s defensive capabilities.
> 
> The agency said the test of the new weapon, which was developed under Kim’s personal guidance, was wholly successful.
> 
> North Korea is not known to have a tactical guided missile capability, but analysis of a recent propaganda film suggested it may have acquired *a variant of a Russian cruise missile, the KH-35.*
> 
> The new missile marks “a great breakthrough in defensive capability,” KCNA said.
> 
> It was not immediately clear when the test took place, but it coincides with the firing of what were believed to be three short-range missiles into the Sea of Japan (East Sea) on Thursday.
> 
> (...EDITED)


----------



## CougarKing

More missiles lobbed...

Military.com



> *Seoul: North Korea Fires More Short-range Missiles*
> 
> Associated Press | Jun 29, 2014 | by Jung-Yoon Choi
> SEOUL, South Korea -- North Korea fired two short-range Scud missiles into its eastern waters Sunday, a South Korean official said, in an apparent test just days after the country tested what it called new precision-guided missiles.
> 
> A South Korean military official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, citing department rules, said the missiles were fired from Wonsan and are presumed to be short-range Scud ballistic missiles. The official added that the military is determining what kind of Scud missiles the projectiles were. South Korean media quoted officials as saying the missiles are presumed to be Scud-C missiles, the same as ones fired in March. North Korea fired the missiles without designating no-sail zones, which the South Korean military views as provocative.
> 
> (...EDITED)


----------



## Edward Campbell

This article, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the _Financial Times_, explains that _Supreme Leader_ Xi Jinping's visit to Seoul (without a stop, first, in Pyongyang) reflect a shift in China's _strategy_ in its own "near abroad:"

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/9b18cc1a-01c9-11e4-bb71-00144feab7de.html?siteedition=intl#axzz35z6EG16b


> Xi’s Seoul visit leaves Pyongyang in the cold
> 
> By Simon Mundy in Seoul
> 
> July 2, 2014
> 
> China may count North Korea as its only treaty ally, but President Xi Jinping will on Thursday become the first Chinese leader to visit Seoul before Pyongyang – reflecting the transformation of Beijing’s stance towards the Korean peninsula.
> 
> Mr Xi’s state visit follows one to China last year by South Korea’s President Park Geun-hye, and will mark the fifth meeting between the two leaders since both took power.
> 
> In contrast, there is no record of any meeting between the Chinese president and North Korea’s supreme leader Kim Jong Un.
> 
> The visit has been interpreted by analysts as a reflection of China’s increasingly important economic relationship with South Korea – and of Beijing’s unhappiness at North Korea’s nuclear development while failing to emulate China’s economic reforms.
> 
> Pyongyang’s nuclear programme will be an “important topic” of conversation between the two presidents, Chinese vice foreign minister Liu Zhenmin said on Tuesday. South Korea’s intelligence agency believes that Pyongyang has made preparations for a fourth nuclear test, and North Korea fired rockets into the ocean on Sunday and Wednesday in what some analysts saw as a signal of displeasure at Mr Xi’s visit.
> 
> While China has endorsed a series of UN sanctions aimed at North Korea’s weapons programme, it has fought to limit their scope. Nonetheless, it showed signs of a sterner stance following Pyongyang’s third nuclear test in February 2013: Chinese banks restricted their business with North Korean clients, and Beijing last September published a 236-page list of items banned from export to the country.
> 
> Moon Chung-in, a professor at Seoul’s Yonsei University and former presidential adviser, said that Mr Xi and Ms Park were likely to discuss the topic of new talks with North Korea. Pyongyang has called for the resumption of the stalled Six Party Talks, chaired by China, which it said should be without preconditions. But South Korea and the US said that North Korea must commit to denuclearisation before the talks – which included Russia and Japan – can resume.
> 
> “Xi Jinping will be urging Park Geun-hye to implement her Korean trust-building process,” Mr Moon said, referring to Ms Park’s policy of lowering tensions on the peninsula.
> 
> The two presidents will hope to find ways to accelerate negotiations on a trade agreement, expected to be signed this year or next. The two countries have one of the world’s largest bilateral trading relationships, with trade between them reaching $274bn last year.
> 
> Mr Xi and Ms Park are also expected to discuss their shared concerns about Japan. Tokyo’s relations with both countries have been fraying amid anger at its supposed lack of remorse for its early-20th century colonial past, as well as territorial disputes.
> 
> On Tuesday, Japan’s cabinet agreed to “reinterpret” its pacifist constitution, in a move that could enable it to come to the aid of an ally under attack.
> 
> “Whenever the leaders of both countries have talks with each other, they naturally mention the militaristic history of Japan, in particular, given the fact that some rightwing forces in Japan are trying to reverse history,” Mr Liu said on Tuesday.
> 
> Yet while Beijing responded to the Japanese cabinet announcement by condemning Tokyo’s “fabrication of the so-called China threat so as to serve its domestic political purposes”, Seoul’s response was milder.
> 
> Kim Han-kwon, an analyst at the Asian Institute for Policy Studies, said that this reflected a disparity between the two countries’ strategic priorities. “For South Korea, the North Korean nuclear threat is the most important issue, whereas for China it’s the rearmament of Japan,” he said.
> 
> “South Korea has always emphasised the alliance with the US, and the US has clearly announced its support for the Japanese position. So South Korea’s position against Japanese rearmament will be limited.”




It is important to remember two things:

     1. China's "support," especially in the UNSC, for the DPRK needs to be seen as an extension of China's long stnading policy of resisting "outside interference in the _internal affairs_" of any country (especially China); and

     2. South Korea is one of the most important investors in China's _rise_; North Korea is a recipient of Chinese food aid. (The GDP _per capita_ ratio between the two Koreas approaches 20:1!)


----------



## CougarKing

To think there are people out there crazy enough to want to tour North Korea...  :facepalm:

From Reuters via Yahoo News



> *North Korea to restart domestic scheduled flights as tourism grows*
> Reuters – 4 hours ago
> 
> SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korea will reopen some of its domestic scheduled air routes for the first time in years, a China-based tour operator said on Thursday, another sign of moves to bolster tourism in the isolated country.
> 
> *North Korea suffers from chronic fuel shortages, but has imported large quantities of jet fuel and gasoline from China in the first five months of this year, according to data compiled by Reuters.*
> 
> "Regular flights like this have not been scheduled before - at least not in the six years we've been doing this," said Troy Collings of Young Pioneer Tours, a China-based company that specialises in taking Western tourists to North Korea.
> 
> *North Korea's national airline Air Koryo will start operating the flights from mid-July*, Collings said.
> 
> (...EDITED)


----------



## CougarKing

From "Dear Leader" to "Limping Leader".   :

Vine



> *North Korea's Kim takes center stage with a limp*
> 
> SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korean leader Kim Jong Un limped on to the stage on the anniversary of his grandfather's death, footage broadcast by state media on Tuesday showed in a rare display of weakness in a country where leaders are portrayed as semi-divine.
> 
> *The footage showed Kim limping quickly on to the center of a large stage in front a vast smiling portrait of his grandfather*, North Korean founding president Kim Il Sung, who died 20 years ago.
> 
> State media and propaganda are highly choreographed by the isolated country and any defects with its leadership are usually kept a tightly guarded secret.


----------



## CougarKing

Surprise, surprise. Hamas is in bed with North Korea... 



> *Report: Hamas Turns to North Korea for Arms*
> 
> Hamas militants in Palestine are hammering out a new arms deal with communist North Korea to obtain the missiles and communication equipment the militants need to keep up their against Israel, a British newspaper reports, and Hamas has already made an initial cash down payment to set the deal.
> 
> In addition, reports The Telegraph, Israeli military commanders believe North Korean experts gave Hamas advice on building tunnels in Gaza that have allowed fighters to move their weapons undetected.
> 
> Military experts believe North Korea has had a series of invasion tunnels for years to allow it to secretly invade South Korea, reports The New York Times.
> 
> More here...
> 
> Newsmax.com


----------



## CougarKing

The PLAAF military attache in Pyongyang must be face-palming that the DPRK's fighter wings still use these:   :facepalm:

Yonhap News



> *N. Korea halts operations of Soviet fighters after series of crashes*
> 
> SEOUL, July 30 (Yonhap) -- Three North Korean MiG-19 fighters have crashed this year, leading to the suspension of flight drills involving the aircraft, South Korea's military sources said Wednesday.
> 
> The supersonic MiG-19 aircraft is a Soviet second-generation fighter developed in 1953. Some 400 MiG variants are still in service in the communist North, accounting for about half of its fighters.
> 
> "At least three of the MiG-19s crashed during training missions -- one earlier this year, the others last month and earlier this month -- apparently due to their aged fuselages," a source said, declining to be identified.
> 
> "In the latest case, the plane crashed right after taking off at the North's air base in Goksan, Pyongan Province, which led Pyongyang to stop drills involving the model," he added.
> 
> (...EDITED)


----------



## CougarKing

Are any of North Korea's antiquated tanks (such as the Soviet copy T-62 they use called the Chonma-ho) even capable of taking on more modern Chinese MBTs like the Type 96 or Type 98/99?  :facepalm:



> *North Korea reportedly moves tanks to Chinese border over 'betrayal' fears*
> 
> North Korea has reportedly moved tanks as well as armored vehicles to its border with China.
> 
> The vehicles are reportedly being sent to an army corps near the border, The Chosun Ilbo, one of South Korea's largest newspapers, reports. North Korea's 12th Corps is in charge of "responding to movements of Chinese troops in an emergency."
> 
> There is some cause for skepticism, however, as the report came from a single, unnamed source, and nothing has been confirmed by China or North Korea. The source claimed that the tanks and armored vehicles were moved to the border because North Korea fears China could "betray" it over its nuclear program.
> 
> If true, though, it would be the latest example of China and North Korea's fraying relationship. While China is by far North Korea's most important ally — and the main provider of its fuel, arms, and food — *Beijing is reportedly growing tired of Pyongyang's behavior, especially the renewal of its nuclear program. It was even said that China recently cut off North Korea's fuel supply.*
> 
> So the question is: Is this North Korea's way of telling China it won't be easily bullied?
> 
> The Week


----------



## CougarKing

Perhaps he has a Swiss bank account with more stolen North Korean government funds waiting for him somewhere?  ;D

Reuters




> *North Korean leader's money manager defects in Russia: South Korea newspaper*
> 
> 
> SEOUL (Reuters) - A senior North Korean banking official who managed money for leader Kim Jong Un has defected in Russia and was seeking asylum in a third country, a South Korean newspaper reported on Friday, citing an unidentified source.
> 
> *Yun Tae Hyong*, a senior representative of North Korea's Korea Daesong Bank, disappeared last week in Nakhodka, in the Russian Far East, with $5 million, the JoongAng Ilbo newspaper reported.
> 
> The Daesong Bank is suspected by the U.S. government of being under the control of the North Korean government's Office 39, which is widely believed to finance illicit activities, including the procurement of luxury goods which are banned under U.N. sanctions.
> 
> The bank was blacklisted by the U.S. Treasury Department in 2010.
> 
> (...EDITED)


----------



## CougarKing

I can't wait until the Seth Rogen movie "Interview" comes out in October to mock this crazy regime. To think that Rogen actually had it shot here in Vancouver.

Reuters



> *North Korea tightens grip on phone SIM cards used by tourists*
> 
> SEOUL (Reuters) - In a move that makes it harder for North Koreans to gain illicit access to the global Internet, North Korea now only allows mobile phone SIM cards used by tourists to be active for the duration of their visit, tourism sources told Reuters.
> Unlike North Koreans, foreigners visiting the isolated country can freely browse social media sites such as Facebook and Twitter using the Koryolink domestic network.
> 
> *Under a change made in July, North Korea deactivates the card when a visitor leaves, ensuring that it can not be left for use by a resident, the sources said. It can be reactivated when a visitor returns to the country.*
> 
> "This basically means in practical terms that if someone leaves the country they can't simply leave their phone with a local friend and have them use the Internet," said one source, who declined to be identified due to the sensitivity of discussing such issues when working in North Korea.
> The move could be linked to a broader crackdown on the exchange of information in North Korea, and according to the source appeared to have been government-led.
> 
> (...EDITED)


----------



## Edward Campbell

This, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the (Australian) (multi-lingual) _SBS_, squares with what I have read/heard from sources I consider reliable:

http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2014/09/18/comment-absurdities-faced-north-korean-refugees-china


> Comment: The absurdities faced by North Korean refugees in China
> *We hear dramatic stories of refugee escapes from North Korea, yet it’s one of the least fearsome natural borders one can imagine.*
> 
> By Elle Hardy
> 
> 18 SEP 2014
> 
> Dandong, China – It’s the middle of the day, and a local woman, Mei, swings open the rusty gate at the bank of the Yalu River and sits at the edge of the water washing her basket of clothes. The barbed wire fence that runs through the gate shudders a little, while nearby, two soldiers lean on their automatic rifles, continuing their conversation under the shade of a pergola. On the opposite river bank, only four metres away, innocuous shrubbery conceals another small barbed wire fence. That is North Korea.
> 
> The Chinese military guards are only on duty from 9am to 5pm: outside of this, in the shadow of the ancient fortress of the Great Wall of China, the only confrontation a defector is likely to face is a tourist worker seeking to clip their entry ticket.
> 
> We hear dramatic stories of refugee escapes from North Korea, yet it’s one of the least fearsome natural borders one can imagine. Foot patrols of North Korean guards go past every few hours, but it’s got nothing on the fortification of the infamous ‘demilitarised zone’ border with South Korea. As Mei’s suds gently drift away and around a bend, one can see how at the right tide, even the stunted North Koreans are able to wade across. She tells us that in winter, the Yalu often freezes completely, meaning it can be crossed by foot.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> On the opposite river bank, only four metres away, innocuous shrubbery conceals another small barbed wire fence. That is North Korea. (Image: Elle Hardy)
> 
> Books such as George W. Bush’s favourite _Aquariums of Pyongyang_ detail cinematic stories of escape. But while these stories sell hundreds of thousands of copies around the world, their extraordinary tales cannot be verified. The reality of defection to China is, more often, far more tragic than romantic. North Korean refugees in China are in many – or most – cases trapped in a network of human slavery, usually as dishwashers, drug runners, or prostitutes. Dandong locals, most of whom will not speak about the North Korean political or refugee situation for fear of being suspected of being involved in people smuggling by the Chinese police, laugh at the myth that their town is crawling with North Korean refugees. “They don’t have permits,” one local tells me, “they may come in here, but it’s too dangerous to stay. They leave straight away.”
> 
> That crossing the border is so easy in the physical sense helps to illustrate life inside the North. The most difficult part of escape is leaving their own town, for civilians are not even allowed to travel inside North Korea without permission. But the biggest barrier defectors face is psychological: there is fear, of course, but in the most total of all totalitarian states - where devotion to the motherland and its ruling Kims is indoctrinated from birth the reason d’etre of its citizens - the dominant is psychology is more Oedipal Complex than Stockholm Syndrome.
> 
> American Professor B.R. Myers’ 2010 book on the ideology of the North Korean state _The Cleanest Race_ runs contrary to the usual narrative of the country, showing how the ideology of the regime is a xenophobic race theory, not Juche communism. “Even today, with a rival state thriving next door, the regime is able to maintain public stability without a ubiquitous police presence or fortified northern border... half of these economic migrants – for that is what most of them are – voluntarily return to their homeland.”
> 
> A Western North Korea expert and frequent visitor to the country, who cannot be named, says: “you only hear defectors talk about leaving for ‘freedom’ and ‘freedom of speech’ after they have been through the South Korean repatriation program. People defect to get money or food.”
> 
> While the Chinese government craves the stability of the Kim regime for fear of a refugee crisis on its border – and equally, the American military conducting nation building so close to its border – Dandong has become a hub for curious Chinese tourists.
> 
> Li, an urbane young man from Chongqing, shows little empathy. “It’s crazy, but not as crazy as what we went through 50 years ago. I don't understand why it’s not developing.” His only interaction with North Koreans will be eating Pyongyang cold noodles at one of the many restaurants staffed by pretty North Korean waitresses employed with the assent of both governments.
> 
> Just as Dandong highlights the absurdity of the North Korean crisis, it also highlights the possible. American journalist Barbara Demick, who has documented the stories of defectors in her book Nothing to Envy, believes that globalisation will help bring about the downfall of the regime. Trade with China continues to liberalise, and technology such as laptops, USB sticks, and DVD players are slowly bringing in glimpses of the outside world.
> 
> At night, the neon lights sparkle along the Dandong promenade, almost as though they’re taunting the citizens of Sinuiju, whose side of the Yalu sits in absolute darkness. In the daylight, as the noise traffic and construction compete for primacy, across the bridge a solitary ferris wheel looks like a morose, lonely animal in a third-world zoo. As Li notes, the Chinese model of moving from a planned economy to a market economy, lifting hundreds of millions out of poverty, is begging to be followed. But an air of inevitability does not alter the present, and thousands of refugees continue to risk their lives each year for one that may not be any better.
> 
> Back on the bank of the Yalu River, escaping the heat with the Chinese guards, they tell of how their North Korean counterparts have picked up a little Chinese.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> A North Korea woman soldier patrols the bank of the Yalu River which separates the North Korean town of Sinuiju from the Chinese border town of Dandong
> 
> “Sometimes they ask us to send them over Cokes,” one says, showing how he lobs the cans underarm to the guards on the opposite bank.
> 
> Wrangling with dichotomies of despair and hope, sometimes you have to laugh.
> 
> _Elle Hardy is a freelance writer._




As far as I know only a very few North Korean _migrants_ are ever sent back by the Chinese but they do join the tens (hundreds?) of millions of _undocumented/migrant workers_ in China who appear, to me, to do much of the dirty, low skill, hard, menial work for far less than the prevailing provincial minimum wage.

(Yes, China does have minimum wages ... but only documented residents of a province can claim them, undocumented/migrant workers are at the mercy of employers, including city governments; I have been told (again by a reliable source) that the thousands and thousands of street sweepers who keep Shanghai's streets cleaner, by far, than Ottawa's, are paid, by the city administration, about half the legal minimum wage.)





A Shanghai street sweeper


----------



## Rifleman62

ERC:





> As far as I know only a very few North Korean migrants are ever sent back by the Chinese but they do join the tens (hundreds?) of millions of undocumented/migrant workers in China who appear, to me, to do much of the dirty, low skill, hard, menial work for far less than the prevailing provincial minimum wage.



At least they don't live in constant terror, have substance to eat, cloths on their back, and pay.


----------



## CougarKing

Don't blame the cheese, blame the lifestyle. 


Daily Mail



> *Is Kim Jong ill? North Korean dictator in poor health as his weight has ballooned thanks to an obsession with cheese *
> 
> The 31-year-old North Korean leader got a taste for the cheese while a student in Switzerland - and is understood to love it so much that *he imports vast quantities despite Western sanctions.*
> 
> 
> A unhealthy appetite for Emmental, also known as Swiss cheese, *is believed to be a key factor in Kim's weight ballooning so in recent months that he now walks with a limp.*
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## tomahawk6

The French eat alot of cheese and it seems to work for them.


----------



## a_majoor

Turning the North Koreans into "cheese eating surrender monkeys?" Holy F*** that's BRILLIANT! 

 ;D ;D ;D


----------



## CougarKing

Perhaps the cheese finally did him in? He's reportedly been gone from public view for about 3 weeks already.

BBC

(video report at link above)



> *Where is North Korean leader Kim Jong-un?*
> 
> Kim Jong-un the supreme leader of North Korea failed to show up at a meeting of parliament.
> He has been elusive in recent weeks. The North Korean authorities said he has been "feeling discomfort".
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## CougarKing

The world of a bedridden Kim Jong Un, and his father and grandfather before him:

Reuters



> *Foreign doctors, military guards: Bespoke care for North Korea's Kims*
> Wed Oct 1, 2014 5:06pm EDT
> 
> By James Pearson
> 
> SEOUL (Reuters) - In 1993, *French neurosurgeon Francois-Xavier Roux* received a phone call in Paris from an unidentified North Korean official. The then leader-in-waiting, Kim Jong Il, had suffered a head injury from horse-riding accident and they wanted his advice.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)
> 
> BEER BOTTLES FOR DRIPS
> 
> *Healthcare is technically free for ordinary North Koreans, but years of failed economic policy and a lack of basic supplies means it is often only those with enough hard cash to buy medicine on the black market who get the care they need.*
> 
> "Conditions were everywhere pretty simple, even primitive. There were staff but little equipment – we saw beer bottles recycled as drips," said James Hoare, a British diplomat who visited rural North Korean hospitals in the early 2000s.
> 
> Recent reports from the country suggest the situation has improved, albeit not by much.
> 
> *For the leadership, however, no expense is spared.*
> 
> Kim Jong Il in his later years underwent frequent check-ups at *the secretive Ponghwa Clinic in central Pyongyang.*
> 
> A large modern structure surrounded by thick foliage and equipped with its own helipad, the Ponghwa Clinic underwent massive renovations in the years following Kim Jong Il's stroke, historical satellite imagery shows.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)
> 
> The 31-year-old appears to have gained weight in the months following the late 2013 purge and execution of his uncle, Jang Song Thaek, the most recently published photographs show.
> 
> Observers speculate Kim's weight and family background may have contributed to his condition, which could be related to his recent awkward gait and limp.
> 
> *Roux, who says he still does not know why the North Koreans chose him, declined to give details on what procedures he performed on Kim Jong Il or whether he was paid, citing state and medical confidentiality.
> *
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## CougarKing

And again with the brinksmanship:  :

Reuters



> *North Korea prepares launch site for longer-range rockets: report*
> Thu Oct 2, 2014 2:37am EDT
> 
> SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korea, already heavily sanctioned by the United Nations for its missile and nuclear tests, has completed a major overhaul of its rocket launch site, a U.S. think tank said on Thursday, enabling it to fire larger, longer-range rockets.
> 
> Reclusive North Korea, which is technically still at war with the South after the 1950-53 Korean War ended in a truce, not a peace treaty, routinely fires short-range missiles or rockets into waters off its east and west coasts.
> 
> A longer-range capability would be bound to concern its sworn enemies, Japan and the United States whom it regularly threatens with nuclear strikes.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## tomahawk6

Kim Jong Un is said to have 2 broken ankles.Frankly I wouldnt be surprised if Kim Jong Un was replaced.He has made enemies among the elite when he had his uncle killed.


----------



## Hisoyaki

Question is: Why wouldn't he try brinkmanship? 

Everyone from Jimmy Carter to Madelaine Albright wants to make a deal with North Korea.


----------



## tomahawk6

Rumors of a coup attempt in North Korea.Pyongyang is said to be on lockdown.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/northkorea/11138105/North-Korea-capital-under-lockdown-amid-rumours-of-threat-to-Kim-Jong-un.html


----------



## CougarKing

At least one source says that Kim Jong Un may no longer be in charge:

Vice.com



> *Former Top Official Says Kim Jong-un Is No Longer in Control of North Korea*
> 
> By Keegan Hamilton
> 
> October 2, 2014 | 4:05 pm
> An elite group of exiles from North Korea gathered in September in the Netherlands to discuss the state of the regime they used to serve. The conference included top diplomats, an ex-senior official of the Ministry of Security, and a high-ranking military officer, but the keynote address was given by Jang Jin-sung, formerly a key member of Kim Jong-il's propaganda machine. Included in Jang's speech was a surprising assertion: North Korea is in the midst of a civil war.
> 
> According to Jang — a former counterintelligence official and poet laureate under Kim Jong-il — members of the government's Organization and Guidance Department (OGD), a powerful group of officials that once reported only to Kim Jong-il, have stopped taking orders from his son, Kim Jong-un. The OGD, Jang says, has effectively taken control of the country, and a conflict is simmering between factions that want to maintain absolute control over the economy and others seeking to gain wealth through foreign trade and a slightly more open market.
> 
> "On one hand, it's people who want to maintain a regime monopoly," Jang told VICE News through a translator in an interview Thursday. "On the other hand, it's not like people are fighting against the regime, but in a policy sense they want to take advantage to get influence. It's not actually consciously civil war, but there are these two incompatible forces at play."
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## jollyjacktar

S.M.A. said:
			
		

> At least one source says that Kim Jong Un may no longer be in charge:
> 
> Vice.com



So, the Jong Show has turned into the Gong Show.


----------



## a_majoor

If any of this is true at all, then it is time to review this article:
When North Korea Falls.

While somewhat dated by now, many of the basic assumptions still stand. Perhaps the biggest assumption in the article which will have to be reexamined is the willingness and ability of the United States to intervene to stabilize the territory and secure WMDs in the territory of the DPRK in the event of an overt collapse. (Given the inability of the US to craft a coherent strategy to deal with issues as diverse as Russian adventurism to the spread of Ebola, a rapid response to events in the DPRK seem out of the question). Certainly the ROK cannot stand by during the turmoil, and China will also have to take steps of some sort as well.

The other, longer term effects that will have to be looked at is the emergence of a "Greater Korea". The ROK has tremendous industrial resources and power, and opening up the DPRK for economic development and having a vast pool of low paid and relatively unskilled labour to draw upon will have some dramatic effects on Korea internally as well as Korea's place in the world.


----------



## tomahawk6

He may not be in control.Many have thought that he was just a front man for those that wield the real power.


----------



## CougarKing

The DPRK govt. reaching out: a greater thaw in relations?

Reuters



> *Top North Korea officials make rare visit to South as diplomacy ramps up*
> 
> By Ju-min Park
> 
> INCHEON South Korea (Reuters) - Isolated North Korea sent its highest level delegation to South Korea on Saturday to attend the Asian Games closing ceremony amid a flurry of diplomatic activity which has raised hopes for improved ties between the arch rivals.
> 
> Heading the delegation was Hwang Pyong So, who arrived at Incheon airport in full military uniform, and Choe Ryong Hae, two senior aides to North Korea's supreme leader Kim Jong Un.
> 
> Kim Yang Gon, a senior ruling Workers' Party official and a long time veteran of dealings ties with the South, was also among the delegation.
> 
> They met South Korean government officials.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## CougarKing

A brief skirmish despite the visit by high-level North Korean envoys last week:

Reuters



> *South, North Korea ships fire shots at disputed sea border*
> Mon Oct 6, 2014 10:18pm EDT
> 
> SEOUL (Reuters) - A South Korean naval ship fired warning shots on Tuesday after a North Korean patrol boat crossed a disputed sea border off the peninsula's west coast and fired shots back before retreating, a South Korean defense official said.
> 
> There were no casualties on the South Korean side and none of the shots by either side was aimed at the other's vessel, he told Reuters.
> 
> It was the latest in a series of similar altercations near Yeonpyeong island, which was bombed by the North in 2010 killing four people, including two civilians.
> 
> The area near Yeonpyeong has been the scene of clashes in the past that killed scores of sailors on both sides, with North Korean vessels frequently crossing the so-called Northern Limit Line, which it refuses to recognize as the maritime border.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## CougarKing

Maybe Kim Jong Un is in Macau with his older brother in exile...

Military.com



> *Is North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un Ill, Deposed or Taking a Break?*
> 
> Los Angeles Times | Oct 08, 2014 | by Carol J. Williams
> If North Korean leader Kim Jong Un isn't sick, he must be dead -- at least politically.
> 
> That's the thinking behind a rash of rumors that the portly 31-year-old scion of the Hermit Kingdom's founding communists has been toppled from power.
> Kim hasn't been seen in public in more than a month, and his absence from the Sept. 25 gathering of the rubber-stamp parliament injected adrenaline into Korea watchers' speculation that he has been deposed by a palace coup.
> 
> Then a high-level delegation of Pyongyang officials made a surprise visit to the South Korean city of Incheon on Saturday, ostensibly to catch the closing ceremonies of the Asian Games in which North Korean athletes did their rogue country proud. The top-ranking visitor, purported No. 2 Hwang Pyong So, conveyed Kim's "heartfelt greeting" to the South Korean officials with whom he met. That only served to ramp up media and academic speculation over why Pyongyang was making such a conciliatory gesture at this time.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## CougarKing

North Korea's new top leader?

Reuters



> *New star emerges in North Korea amid speculation over Kim*
> 
> By By James Pearson and Jack Kim | Reuters – 1 hour 0 minutes ago
> 
> SEOUL (Reuters) - The man in the olive drab uniform and oversized Soviet-style military cap who strode through South Korea's main airport last week has climbed from an obscure desk job in North Korea to the most powerful position outside the ruling Kim family.
> 
> *Hwang Pyong So*, now a top military aide to the North's leader Kim Jong Un, has had an unprecedented rise to the top rungs of North Korea's leadership in the space of a few years. With intense speculation on the whereabouts of Kim after his disappearance from official media for over a month, Hwang is even more in focus.
> 
> Last week, Hwang was at the head of a delegation that visited South Korea for the closing ceremony of the Asian Games in the city of Incheon with little advance notice.
> 
> He is the most senior official from the North to have ever come to the South, and opinion is divided on whether this could be a sign of turmoil in Pyongyang.
> 
> (...EDITED)


----------



## Colin Parkinson

For all we know this is an elaborate game to get "traitors" in NK who wish for another regime to show their hand and then be dealt with when Kim re-emerges or it could be the real deal. Those that know won't be saying anything.


----------



## CougarKing

And the portly cheese eater one emerges once again...

Reuters



> *North Korean leader Kim Jong Un makes first appearance since September 3*
> 
> SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visited a newly built residential district and a scientific establishment, state media reported early on Tuesday, his first public appearances since Sept. 3.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## CougarKing

Reuters



> *North and South Korea military officials hold secret talks: lawmaker*
> 
> SEOUL (Reuters) - High-ranking military officials from North and South Korea met secretly on Wednesday to discuss recent border altercations that involved gun fire, a South Korean opposition lawmaker and news reports said.
> 
> *North Korea's military fired shots on Friday aiming at balloons sent by a private activist group from the South carrying leaflets with messages critical of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, with some of the bullets landing in the South.
> 
> South Korea's military fired back in the incident that did not escalate or result in casualties.*
> 
> The military officials met at the Panmunjom truce village that sits on the armed border separating the two Koreas, Park Jie-won, a senior opposition member of parliament said at a party meeting, according to a statement issued by the party.
> 
> Yonhap news agency also reported a meeting was held, citing an unnamed government source.
> 
> (....SNIPPED)


----------



## CougarKing

The North Korean nuclear threat again:

Reuters



> *U.S. general says he believes North Korea can build nuclear warhead*
> Fri Oct 24, 2014 4:16pm EDT
> 
> By David Alexander and Phil Stewart
> 
> WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The commander of U.S. forces in South Korea said on Friday he believes Pyongyang has the capability to build a nuclear warhead that can be mounted on a ballistic missile, but added there were no tests or other evidence it has taken that step.
> 
> Army General Curtis Scaparrotti said he thought North Korea's connection with Iran and Pakistan meant it probably had access to the expertise needed to miniaturize and mount an atomic weapon on a missile.
> 
> "I believe they have the capability to miniaturize a device at this point and they have the technology to potentially deliver what they say they have," Scaparrotti told a news conference at the Pentagon.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## CougarKing

Another possible naval threat from North Korea:

Military.com



> *North Korea May Be Developing Sea-Based Missiles*
> 
> Associated Press | Oct 28, 2014 | by Matthew Pennington
> North Korea has built a new testing facility that is probably intended to research how to launch ballistic missiles from submarines or ships, according to a U.S. research institute.
> 
> The North is still likely years away from fielding such missiles, but the finding will add to concern over its weapons development.
> 
> *The analysis is based on recent satellite imagery at the east coast site of Sinpo, where the institute says North Korea has a naval shipyard and research institute. It shows a 12-meter (39-foot) -high stand on a 30-meter (98-foot) -wide concrete base that is the right size and design for testing how a missile would eject from a launch tube as on a submarine or surface combat ship, according to the analysis published by 38 North,[/b**] the website of the U.S.-Korea Institute at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)
> 
> *


----------



## CougarKing

From submarine commander to fighter ace...Kim Jong Un does it all...  : 

Huffington Post



> *Kim Jong Un Hops In Fighter Jet For Weird Photo Opportunity*
> 
> Now that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is back in the spotlight after a lengthy disappearance, he's wasting no time engaging in one of his favorite activities: being photographed in weird places.
> 
> The latest photo op may be one of the oddest yet, showing him sitting in the cockpit of a Russian fighter jet with some kind of fancy and frilly headrest cover that looks like it came off a pillow on grandma's living room sofa.
> 
> *Bloomberg said Kim's visit to the air base comes amid a new report that he recently ordered the execution of 10 senior officials on charges that include graft and watching South Korean soap operas.
> *
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Well I believe most western leaders have had similar pictures, mind without the custom headrest


----------



## cavalryman

Colin P said:
			
		

> Well I believe most western leaders have had similar pictures, mind without the custom headrest


Jean Chretien and the reversed helmet?  ;D


----------



## a_majoor

South Korea thinking ahead:

http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/business/2014/11/18/6/0503000000AEN20141118006200320F.html



> *S. Korea to raise $500 bln for unification: regulator *
> 2014/11/18 17:00
> By Kim Boram
> 
> SEOUL, Nov. 18 (Yonhap) -- South Korea plans to raise US$500 billion largely from the public sector, without raising taxes, to help North Korea prepare for a future reunification, the top financial regulator said Tuesday.
> 
> In a financial blueprint for a future North-South unification, the Financial Services Commission (FSC) said an estimated $500 billion is needed to raise North Korea's gross domestic product (GDP) per capita from $1,251 in 2013 to $10,000 within 20 years after a possible unification.
> 
> It will also spend an additional $175 billion on infrastructure and industrial development, it added.
> 
> North Korea's GDP totaled 34 trillion won ($31 billion) as of end-2013, a level equivalent to that of South Korea in 1971 and a mere 2 percent of the South's GDP in 2013.
> 
> The South's GDP was 42.5 times higher than the North's in 2013, much higher than the 9.7-fold difference between West Germany and East Germany ahead of their 1990 unification.
> 
> The FSC said state-run policy financing agencies, including the Korea Development Bank (KDB) and Korea Exim Bank, will play a major role in raising the funds, as Germany's government-owned development bank, or the KfW, did 24 years ago.
> 
> The state agencies will take responsibility for up to 60 percent of the total expenses by running development projects in North Korea, while the rest will be raised by collecting overseas development aid (ODA) and private and public investments.
> 
> "In the initial stage of unification, the government will lead the North Korean development by using state funds and projects, and then the ODA and private investments can be utilized," said FSC Chairman Shin Je-yoon.
> 
> The FSC suggested the introduction of a commercial banking system and the establishment of a policy financing body to pursue stable economic integration between the two countries.
> 
> It also noted that currency conversion is the most sophisticated issue in unification as the exchange rate would be largely conditioned on political negotiations and social consensus.
> 
> "We have to consider many factors, including the economic gap between the two countries and macroeconomic variables before introducing a currency system to the North," said Shin. "The monetary integration should be decided after comprehensive discussion."
> 
> East German currency was exchanged for West German deutsche marks at a rate of 1 to 1, although the market rate was 4 to 1, according to the FSC.
> 
> The overestimated currency conversion helped stabilize the livelihoods of workers from East Germany in the short term, but soon resulted in a sudden wage hike, which damaged the profitability of East German companies.
> 
> brk@yna.co.kr


----------



## CougarKing

Kim Jong Un's sister on the rise as well?

Reuters



> *North Korea's 'princess' moves closer to center of power*
> 
> SEOUL (Reuters) - In her slim-fitting trouser suits and black-heeled shoes, *Kim Yo Jong* cuts a contrasting figure to her pudgy older brother, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.
> 
> On Thursday, state media said the younger Kim, 27, had taken a senior position in the ruling Workers' Party, confirming speculation she had moved closer to the center of power in the secretive state.
> 
> It named her as a vice director alongside the head of the Propaganda and Agitation Department, which handles ideological messaging through the media, arts and culture.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## OldSolduer

Just picked this up:

http://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/the-new-defense-secretary-who-wanted-to-bomb-north-korea/ar-BBgfzj9


----------



## CougarKing

If conditions in the US are so bad as he claims, he might as well stay in North Korea and join the lines for food aid...oh wait, that aid is only reserved for the North Korean Army.  :

Reuters



> *American in North Korea denounces U.S., seeks Venezuela asylum: media*
> 
> SEOUL (Reuters) - A U.S. citizen who illegally entered North Korea delivered a lengthy denunciation of U.S. domestic and foreign policy on Sunday and said he was seeking political asylum in Venezuela, the North's official media said.
> 
> The man identified himself as Arturo Pierre Martinez, 29, from El Paso, Texas, in video footage of a press conference released by the North's KCNA news agency. He said he had taken "a risky journey to reach the (North) so that I could pass along some very valuable and disturbing information".
> 
> A KCNA article released with the footage said Martinez spoke of human rights violations committed by the U.S. government and its attempt at forcing imperialist influence and domination on other countries.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## CougarKing

Anyone wanna bet this so-called sub will sink during sea trials?



> *North Korea Launches Soviet-Era Style Ballistic Missile Submarine*
> 
> Deploying new nuclear-capable vessel would significantly increase threat to South Korea and US.
> 
> North Korea has launched a domestically built submarine that is designed to fire ballistic missiles, raising new concerns about the growing threat posed by Pyongyang's missile and nuclear programmes.
> 
> *Military sources in South Korea say the vessel is based on a Golf II-class Soviet submarine that the North acquired in 1993, ostensibly for scrapping. *The 3,500-ton Golf II was equipped with submarine-launched ballistic missiles that could carry a 2,600 lb warhead more than 880 miles.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)
> 
> Source: Telegraph


----------



## Infanteer

I can see a movie where Seth Rogan and James Franco hijack it and bring it to the U.S.  The Hunt for Two Idiots, or something....


----------



## jollyjacktar

Pig boats make me shudder at the best of times but I really feel for the poor bastards who'll sail in this contraption.   Bigger balls than I have.


----------



## Tibbson

jollyjacktar said:
			
		

> Pig boats make me shudder at the best of times but I really feel for the poor bastards who'll sail in this contraption.   Bigger balls than I have.



To this army dude the term "sailing" implies more forward motion then downward, so I'm not sure how much sailing will actually be done in it.


----------



## Retired AF Guy

Looking at pictures of the boat in question, if they tried firing a missile from it, the damn thing would probably explode.


----------



## a_majoor

Recounting the crimes of the DPRK. Cyber attacks against Sony is the very least of what they do:





> Kim Jong Un: Slavetrader
> Posted By Robert Zubrin On January 3, 2015 @ 11:31 pm In Asia,Books,Culture,Koreas,Media,Politics,World News | 28 Comments
> 
> The efforts of the North Korean regime to force the suppression of The Interview, a comedy which subjects its leader to  a small dose of long-overdue mockery, have aroused the anger of many Americans, with particular umbrage being expressed by a number of leading Hollywood personalities. They are right to be mad, for certainly, as even President Obama pointed out, we cannot accept criminal attempts by foreign dictatorships to interfere with freedom of speech in our country. Yet it must also be said that there is a narcissistic quality to the current outrage over this particular crime of the North Korean government, as it has long been guilty of far worse.
> 
> North Korea is sometimes described as the world’s last remaining Stalinist regime. But this is a slander — of Stalinism. In fact, North Korea is actually a vast — and monstrously cruel — slave labor plantation and human trafficking operation run for the profit and hedonistic pleasure of its morally degenerate rulers.
> 
> Here is an extract [1]from the U.S. State Department 2009 report on human trafficking by North Korea:
> 
> The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK or North Korea) is a source country for men, women, and children trafficked for the purposes of forced labor and commercial sexual exploitation. The most common form of trafficking involves North Korean women and girls subjected to involuntary servitude after willingly crossing the border into the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Many of them are from North Hamgyong province, one of the poorest provinces in the country, located near the Chinese border. Once in China, they are picked up by traffickers and sold as brides to PRC nationals, often of Korean ethnicity. In other cases, North Korean women and girls are lured out of North Korea to escape poor economic, social, and political conditions by the promise of food, jobs, and freedom, only to be forced into prostitution, marriage, or exploitative labor arrangements once in China. North Koreans trafficked into or within the PRC are often passed from one trafficker to the next until they reach their ultimate destinations. In some cases, women and girls may be sold to traffickers by their families or acquaintances. Women sold as brides are sometimes re-abducted by the traffickers or are sold by husbands who no longer want them. In some cases, North Korean women are sold multiple times to different men by the same trafficker. Trafficking networks of Korean-Chinese and North Korean men operate in Northeast China and along the China-DPRK border, where they seek out North Korean women and girls. There are some reports that businessmen who operate along the China-DPRK border use their trade routes along the Yalu River to traffic North Korean women into China. While many women trafficked into China are sold as brides, some North Korean women in China are forced to work in the highly exploitative sex industry, including as prostitutes in brothels and in internet sex operations. Many victims of trafficking, unable to speak Chinese, are held as virtual prisoners. The illegal status of North Koreans in the PRC and other Southeast Asian countries increases their vulnerability to trafficking for purposes of forced labor and sexual exploitation. NGOs estimate that tens of thousands of North Koreans presently live in China, more than half of whom are women; according to some estimates, over 80 percent of North Korean refugees are victims of human trafficking.
> 
> To this, the 2010 State Department report adds: [2]
> 
> The North Korean government is directly involved in subjecting North Koreans to forced labor in prison camps. An estimated 150,000 to 200,000 persons are held in detention camps in remote areas of the country; many of these prisoners were not duly convicted of a criminal offense. In prison camps, all prisoners, including children, are subject to forced labor, including logging, mining, and farming for long hours under harsh conditions. Reports indicate that political prisoners endure severe conditions, including little food or medical care, and brutal punishments; many are not expected to survive. Many prisoners fell ill or died, due to harsh labor conditions, inadequate food, beatings, lack of medical care, and unhygienic conditions.
> 
> The North Korean government recruits workers for bilateral contracts with foreign governments, including in Russia, countries in Africa, Central and Eastern Europe, East and Southeast Asia, including Mongolia, and the Middle East. There are credible reports that many North Korean workers sent abroad by the regime under these contracts are subjected to forced labor, with their movement and communications constantly under surveillance and restricted by North Korean government “minders.” Credible reports state that they face threats of government reprisals against them or their relatives in North Korea if they attempt to escape or complain to outside parties. Worker salaries are deposited into accounts controlled by the North Korean government, which keeps most of the money, claiming fees for various “voluntary” contributions to government endeavors. Workers only receive a fraction of the money paid to the North Korean government for their work. Tens of thousands of North Korean workers are estimated to be employed in Russian logging camps, where they reportedly have only two days of rest per year and face punishments when they fail to meet production targets. Wages of some North Korean workers employed in Russia reportedly were withheld until the laborers returned home, in a coercive tactic by North Korean authorities to compel their labor. North Korean workers at joint ventures with foreign investors within the DPRK are employed under arrangements similar to those that apply to overseas contract workers.
> 
> It gets worse. The North Korean rulers willfully starve the nation’s entire population, using the foreign exchange they get by selling their subjects as forced labor and sex slaves abroad to buy weaponry, palaces, and a fantastic assortment of luxuries for themselves. Rations are so low that the growth of children is stunted, resulting in an average height of North Korean ten year olds being some 8 inches less than their opposite numbers in South Korea. Over the past twenty years, more than 5 percent of the general population has starved to death. Conditions are so bad that men pay government officials heavy bribes in order to be chosen to be sent to slave labor camps in Siberia. In Stalinist Russia, people feared such a fate. In North Korea today, they beg for it.
> 
> While their people starve, the Korean rulers gorge themselves. As recounted by his former chef, Fujimoto Kenji , during the height of a mid-1990s famine, dictator Kim Jong Il (the son of Kim Il Sung and the father of current dictator Kim Jong Un) ordered him to go to Japan to buy nearly three thousand pounds of the best sushi and squid, as well as red-bean rice cakes and Japanese cigarettes, then on to Thailand for the best papayas and mangoes, then Czechoslovakia for Pilsner beer, to Denmark for bacon, to France for Perrier water, and to Iran and Uzbekistan for pistachios and caviar, all for consumption by himself and his “joy brigade” of Norwegian models during revels in his ten palaces.
> 
> In order to induce their subjects to accept such treatment, the North Korean regime has created a cult in which its leaders are held to be gods. Accordingly, nearly all Christian churches and Buddhist temples (except for a few in the capital for use by foreigners) have been destroyed, while 40,000 idols (including one $800 million seventy-foot high gilded edition) of the nation’s “eternal president” Kim Il Sung have been erected across the country. The calendar has also been changed, replacing the birth of Christ with that of Kim IL Sung (in 1912) as the starting point for human history. The cult also includes an ideology of racial purity. Thus, when its female sex slaves are returned from China, any girls who have been made pregnant by Chinese men are subject to forced abortions, or, if they give birth, they have to watch while their “racially impure” babies are killed on the spot.
> 
> No competing religions are tolerated, with Christianity particularly frowned upon.  Possession of a Bible by one family member can result in execution of the entire family, sometimes by extraordinarily cruel means. In one incident reported by Melanie Kirkpatrick in her book Escape from North Korea, [3]  “five secret Christians were bound, laid on a highway, and run over by a steamroller.”
> 
> Any Korean can be picked up by police at any time right off the street and sent to a slave camp without trial or any kind of due process whatsoever. There, as former National Security Council staffer Victor Cha describes in his book The Impossible State, [4] “conditions… are subhuman….Generally, inmates are woken up between four and six AM to begin slave labor. The types of work the prisoners are tasked with vary greatly, but are often hard, physical labor for men and young female prisoners, such as mining, logging, brick making, and general construction. The work conditions on these sites are incredibly dangerous, with large numbers of work-related deaths, and defectors reporting shockingly high counts of amputees, cripples, hunchbacks, and other generally deformed prisoners as a result of their toil. The older or weaker men or women are forced to carry out light manufacturing jobs, such as sewing clothes and making belts and shoes, and they are driven no less hard than their younger, stronger counterparts. The work is ceaseless and subject to highly strict quotas, which are enforced brutally. Punishments for working too slow or not making a quota range from reductions in already-measly food rations to prolonged solitary confinement to physical abuse to torture. …Usually, the only justifiable reason to provide prisoners with a break is to gather them to witness a public execution, most often for prisoners who have tried to escape. Execution methods run the gamut, but are similar to those practiced outside prison walls in North Korean society, including hanging, sheeting, stoning (which requires prisoner participation), and, in one particularly grotesque case, being dragged behind a moving car. … Some prison guards force inmates to climb the fences, just so they can shoot them down for recreation or target practice….female inmates, in particular, are subject to the pain and humiliation of sexual abuse.”
> 
> North Korea does not confine this treatment to its own subjects. It actively engages in kidnapping others, most frequently from South Korea or Japan, to exploit as slaves as well. In addition, it engages in terrorism, including repeated attempts to assassinate South Korean political leaders, in one case blowing up an airliner with 150 people on board to do so.
> 
> One could go on, at great length, detailing ever more hideous aspects of this monstrous regime. Suffice to say, however, that its offense of trying to suppress Hollywood mockery compares to its true criminality in about the same degree as similar (largely successful) efforts by Nazi Germany to chill film criticism in the 1930s did to the full measure of the depravity of the Third Reich. Unfortunately, however, Seth Rogen’s Interview comedy, even if ultimately broadly released, will no more suffice to defeat Kim Jong Un than Charlie Chaplin’s Great Dictator satire was able to stop Hitler. As then, so now, rather more potent means will be required. Perhaps, though, if they wish to strike back, those in Hollywood now outraged by the gentlest touch of Kim’s totalitarianism can help muster the forces to destroy it by making a blockbuster that truly exposes it to the light of day.
> 
> There’s plenty of material available for the screenplay. Many of the chilling accounts in Kirkpatrick’s Escape from North Korea could serve. My favorite, though, would be The Aquariums of Pyongyang: [5] Ten Years in the North Korean Gulag,  the gripping autobiography of Kang Chol-Hwan, a boy whom the priesthood of the divine Kim Il Sung sentenced to a slave labor camp at the age of nine for the crime of having the wrong grandparents.
> 
> That might be a lot to expect from Hollywood, some of whose leading stars, such as Martin Sheen, have acted out their fashionable anti-Americanism by serving as spokesmen for the North Korean front group ANSWER.  So maybe we’ll have to settle for a documentary, made with the more limited resources of the film community’s pro-freedom underground.
> 
> They could call it Why We Fight.
> 
> Article printed from PJ Media: http://pjmedia.com
> 
> URL to article: http://pjmedia.com/blog/kim-jong-un-slavetrader/
> 
> URLs in this post:
> 
> [1] an extract : http://gvnet.com/humantrafficking/NorthKorea-2.htm :
> [2] report adds:: http://www.state.gov/j/tip/rls/tiprpt/2010/142760.htm
> [3] Escape from North Korea,: http://www.amazon.com/Escape-North-Korea-Underground-Railroad/dp/1594037299/ref=tmm_pap_title_0?ie=UTF8&qid=1419271077&sr=8-1
> [4] The Impossible State,: http://www.amazon.com/Impossible-State-North-Korea-Future-ebook/dp/B006QBDKQS/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1419276385&sr=8-1&keywords=The+Impossible+State
> [5] The Aquariums of Pyongyang:: http://www.amazon.com/Aquariums-Pyongyang-Years-North-Korean/dp/0465011047/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1419618725&sr=1-1&keywords=aquariums+of+pyongyang



Suggesting Hollywood would produce or film any of the stories in the last paragraph presumes a moral courage which is severely lacking in there. Given the speed which they rolled over (and the way Hollywood ignores other places with equally monstrous regimes and compelling human stories of courage).


----------



## CougarKing

More distrust between Beijing and Pyongyang?

Reuters



> *China enlists citizens to patrol border with North Korea: state media*
> 
> BEIJING (Reuters) - China is sending civilian militias to help secure the border it shares with North Korea, state media said, in the wake of two reported killings of Chinese citizens by North Koreans that could strain ties between Pyongyang and its sole major ally.
> 
> The China Defence News said on Wednesday it had established a civilian-military defense system in the Danubian prefecture of Jilting province. Danubian shares a border of about 500 km (310 miles) with North Korea.
> 
> "China and North Korea are both keeping guard on the border ...," the newspaper said. "The situation is more complicated and relying on just one party would make it difficult to achieve effective control."
> 
> *The government has also "guided the establishment of militia patrols" to guard border villages. Every 10 neighboring households would have their own border security group and there would be 24-hour video surveillance, the newspaper said.*
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## CougarKing

North Korea looking for another hand that feeds...to bite. 

Nikkei Asian Review



> *North Korea looks to cut Chinese apron strings*
> ATSUSHI IJUIN
> 
> (...SNIPPED)
> 
> In China, industry representatives say many apparel and seafood products from North Korea are re-exported to third countries, typically from such ports as Dalian and Hunchun. If the North's producers could ship directly to Japan and South Korea, they would enjoy higher margins. Managers at North Korean factories say Chinese importers demand ever-greater concessions. This helps explain their eagerness to start trading with Japan and the South again.
> 
> *     At present, China accounts for nearly 80% of North Korea's trade, making it imperative for Pyongyang to diversify. At the plenary session of the Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea in March 2013, Kim Jong Un personally urged top party officials to find new trading partners.*
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## OldSolduer

Has he bought any new submarines lately? >


----------



## CougarKing

A ploy for Russia to attract North Korea to upgrade or replace the North Korean Army's antiquated Soviet-era hardware?

Yahoo Finance



> *Russia has announced plans for joint military drills with North Korea*
> 
> A top Russian military official has stated that Moscow plans on conducting joint military exercises with North Korea, a number of media outlets have reported.
> 
> “We are planning an expansion of the communication lines of our military central command," Valery Gerasimov, the chief of staff of the Russian armed forces, said at a meeting attended by the heads of all of Russia's armed forces branches, according to Newsweek.* "We are entering preliminary negotiations with the armed forces of Brazil, Vietnam, Cuba and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.”*
> 
> If negotiations are successful,* the military drills will include naval and air force exercises as well as joint drills between ground troops from Russia and North Korea.*
> 
> Although military exercises involving both North Korea and Russia could increase tensions along the Korean peninsula — where the US routinely conducts joint military drills with South Korea — any military relationship between Moscow and Pyongyang will likely be superficial.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## MilEME09

Some how this sounds familiar....oh wait....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rXaUD1XVjYg


----------



## Retired AF Guy

Those Imperialist American forces have been warned!!!

  North Korean Forces Trained in the Attack Against US CVN


----------



## CougarKing

North Korea adding to its SSM arsenal:

Reuters



> *North Korea test-fires new anti-ship cruise missile*
> 
> By James Pearson
> 
> SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korea has test-fired a new anti-ship cruise missile, images released by state media on Saturday showed, demonstrating the increased capability of the secretive state's outdated navy.
> 
> The images were released in the lead-up to U.S.-South Korean military exercises this spring. North Korea routinely seeks to raise tensions ahead of the annual drills, although this year Pyongyang has also offered to suspend nuclear testing if Washington calls off the exercises.
> 
> The images, which were shown on the front page of the ruling Workers' Party Rodong Sinmun newspaper, showed leader Kim Jong Un observing the missile being fired from a small naval vessel.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## CougarKing

The cycle of brinksmanship, threats and blackmail by Pyongyang continues:

Defense News



> *North Korea Fires Short-Range Missiles Into Sea*
> Agence France-Presse 1:01 p.m. EST February 8, 2015
> 
> SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea test-fired five short-range missiles into the sea off its east coast Sunday, raising cross-border tensions ahead of Seoul's planned joint army drills with the US.
> 
> The North fired the missiles into the East Sea (Sea of Japan) from its eastern city of Wonsan between 4:20-5:10 pm, (0720-0810 GMT) Seoul's defence ministry spokesman told AFP.
> 
> They flew about 200 kilometers (124 miles) before landing.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## CougarKing

Kim Jong Un's new secret weapon...yes it's horrifying.  ;D



> *Kim Jong Un has an amazing new haircut. We have many, many questions.*
> Amanda Taub
> February 19, 2015
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> *This new haircut raises a number of important questions for anyone who follows North Korean politics. For instance:*
> 
> - What instructions did Kim Jong Un give his barber that resulted in this style?
> 
> - Was it, "Hey, you know trapezoids?"
> 
> - Or perhaps, "You know my main priority is to ensure that my ears do not feel crowded, let's work on a 'do that really lets the old face-handles breathe"?
> 
> - Kim Jong Un famously adopted his shaved-sided, center-parted haircut as a way to signal connection with his grandfather and the country's founding leader, Kim Il Sung. Now the sides are still shaved, but the center part is GONE. What does it mean?
> 
> - Could it be that the the new style conveys an intent to embrace the legacy of his father Kim Jong Il, who also often sported a uniform crest of hair unbroken by any parting?
> 
> - Or is it intended to signify that North Korea, like Kim Jong Un's hair, is reaching new heights and cannot be stopped by gravity or any other natural force?
> 
> - Does his haircut sail majestically ever-upwards, unlike the North Korean Unha rocket that failed spectacularly after launch in 2012, breaking up over the Sea of Japan?
> 
> - Could Kim Jong Un's new haircut carry a warhead?
> 
> - Could Kim Jong Un's new haircut target Seoul?
> 
> *More questions here*


----------



## CougarKing

I wonder how many North Korean merchant ships actually fly their national flag as opposed to flying Panamanian or Liberian flags like many other nations' merchant ships who use them as "flags of convenience"...

Reuters



> *North Korea shipping firm skirts sanctions by renaming ships: U.N. panel*
> By Louis Charbonneau and Michelle Nichols
> 
> UNITED NATIONS (Reuters)* - A U.N.-blacklisted North Korean shipping company has renamed most of its vessels in a bid to disguise their origin* and continues its illicit shipments in violation of United Nations sanctions, according to a U.N. experts report seen by Reuters on Wednesday.
> 
> The U.N. Security Council's Panel of Experts on North Korea, which monitors implementation of sanctions on Pyongyang, also said in the 76-page report that North Korea "continued to defy Security Council resolutions by persisting with its nuclear and ballistic missile programs."
> 
> North Korea is under United Nations sanctions because of its nuclear tests and missile launches. In addition to arms, Pyongyang is banned from importing and exporting nuclear and missile technology and is not allowed to import luxury goods.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## Oldgateboatdriver

The Firm is North Korean (read belongs the NK military and benefits mostly to someone high and mighty in the party) but you can be sure the ships fly flags of convenience. That's why they bother to try and change the names, changes that are accompanied I am sure by simulated changes of ownership to avoid their being tracked by ordinary maritime shipping "intelligence" sources. They remain dedicated to breaking through the imposed sanctions.


----------



## a_majoor

It would be very sad if these ships were to suffer "accidents" on the open ocean, or maybe encounters with pirates off the coast of Africa or the The Strait of Malacca .....


----------



## CougarKing

Thucydides said:
			
		

> or maybe encounters with pirates off the coast of Africa or the The Strait of Malacca .....



If you recall from the Modern Piracy thread, there was already one incident where Somali pirates attacked a North Korean vessel, only to find the North Korean crew armed to the teeth with small arms.


----------



## a_majoor

S.M.A. said:
			
		

> If you recall from the Modern Piracy thread, there was already one incident where Somali pirates attacked a North Korean vessel, only to find the North Korean crew armed to the teeth with small arms.



Then its a twofer!


----------



## CougarKing

I wonder if the US, Japan or South Korea ever considered an Osiraq-style surgical air strike on any North Korean nuclear weapons facility? For those unaware, Osiraq was the site of a nuclear weapons development facility in Iraq which was destroyed by the Israeli Air Force in the 1980s, if I can recall correctly.

Reuters



> *U.S. says 'seriously concerned' about North Korea's nuclear work*
> 
> (Reuters) - The United States remain seriously concerned about North Korea's nuclear work which it said breached international agreements, it said on Wednesday, a day after the isolated Asian country said it had the power to deter a U.S. "nuclear threat."
> 
> The Unites States said North Korea's graphite moderated reactor could enable it to produce additional plutonium for weapons in the near future, among other nuclear activities.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## a_majoor

I'm sure all kinds of ideas have been floated, but the key sticking point is that the DPRK can effectively retaliate (even if just by arranging an WWI like artillery barrage on Seoul), unlike Iraq or even Syria when the IDF bombed their nuclear reactors.

Once you cross the start line on a project like that you are essentially comitting to "all or nothing"

Sadly (as touched on in PM Netanyahu's speech last night), Iran really did not have the ability to effectively retaliate against an American or Israeli strike against their nuclear program (maybe indirectly through disrupting the oil market or via sponsoring more terrorism), but for various reasons, everyone has been staying their hand until it may be too late.


----------



## OldSolduer

But now that watch their leaders in HD,

http://www.nknews.org/2015/03/north-korean-tv-uploads-first-hd-footage-including-archives-of-kim-jong-il/


----------



## midget-boyd91

Hamish Seggie said:
			
		

> But now that watch their leaders in HD,
> 
> http://www.nknews.org/2015/03/north-korean-tv-uploads-first-hd-footage-including-archives-of-kim-jong-il/



So, are they going to track down the cameramen and throw them in the Gulags if footage of Kim Jong Il/Un with a pimple surfaces?


----------



## OldSolduer

uncle-midget-Oddball said:
			
		

> So, are they going to track down the cameramen and throw them in the Gulags if footage of Kim Jong Il/Un with a pimple surfaces?



Or that retarded haircut.


----------



## midget-boyd91

Also: This was just wayyyy too good to NOT share for everybody else's eyes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mEv9GC0q8Co&t=17


----------



## CougarKing

A Canadian being held by Pyongyang?

Reuters



> *Missing Canadian pastor being held by North Korea: church*
> 
> OTTAWA (Reuters) - North Korea has detained the head pastor of a large Canadian church who went missing after he traveled to the secretive state on a humanitarian mission, a church spokeswoman said Thursday.
> 
> Canadian foreign ministry officials informed the family of the detention of *Reverend Hyeon Soo Lim, 60, from the Light Korean Presbyterian Church in Toronto*, spokeswoman Lisa Pak told Reuters. He was last heard from on Jan. 31.
> 
> Lim had made hundreds of trips to North Korea, where he helps oversee a nursing home, a nursery and an orphanage in the Rajin region, Pak said. She said she wouldn't speculate on why North Korea had detained him.
> 
> *North Korea and China have clamped down on Christian groups over the past year, and several American Christians have been detained by North Korea.*
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## CougarKing

Yet another missile launch:

Reuters



> *North Korea fires short-range missiles ahead of U.S. defense chief visit to Seoul*
> 
> SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korea on Friday test-fired four missiles off its west coast, a week ahead of a visit to Seoul by the U.S. defense secretary, in what South Korea called a bid to stoke tension during its joint military drills with the United States.
> 
> North Korea occasionally fires short-range missiles into the sea as part of its military drills and has conducted such launches during times of tension with neighboring South Korea.
> 
> The four short-range projectiles flew roughly 140 km (84 miles) and plunged into the sea late on Friday afternoon, South Korea's office of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## CougarKing

The North Korean ICBM threat in focus again:

US Naval Institute



> *NORAD Chief: North Korea Has Ability to Reach U.S. With Nuclear Warhead on Mobile ICBM*
> 
> PENTAGON — North Korea has the ability to launch an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of hitting the West Coast of the U.S. with a nuclear weapon from a mobile launcher, according to a Department of Defense intelligence assessment cited by the head of NORAD in a Tuesday press briefing.
> 
> *Not only does the Pentagon worry that the road mobile weapon — the KN-08 — is able to launch with reduced warning from inside North Korea but also that the current regime has advanced its nuclear weapons technology enough to arm the ICBM with an effective warhead.*
> 
> “Our assessment is they have the ability to put a nuclear weapon on a KN-08 and shoot it at the homeland and that’s the way we think, that’s our assessment of the process,” NORAD and U.S. Northern Command head Adm. William Gortney said in a press briefing to reporters.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## CougarKing

Someday, Beijing may have to deal with Pyongyang if the latter continues to threaten the relative stability in the region that has allowed China's economy to thrive...

Whether the Chinese deal with their former proteges by force remains to be seen:

Reuters



> *China warns on rising North Korea nuclear capability: WSJ*
> 
> SEOUL (Reuters) - Chinese nuclear experts have warned that North Korea may already have 20 nuclear warheads and the capability to produce enough weapons-grade uranium to double its arsenal by next year, The Wall Street Journal reported.
> 
> *The Chinese estimates of Pyongyang's nuclear production, relayed to U.S. nuclear specialists, exceed most previous U.S. forecasts, which range from 10 to 16 bombs currently*, said the report, which cited people briefed on the matter.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## Edward Campbell

Dealing with North Korea _by force_ is not a sure thing, even for China.

The geography is daunting; Korea is a peninsula.

                    
	

	
	
		
		

		
			





The only 'land' border is, in fact, a large river. The _Yalu_ is a formidable obstacle and the Chinese road/rail network in Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning provinces, while much improved, is not as extensive and well developed as in other, more populated regions. A good logistical _tail_ would be essential because the DPRK military is large and _might_ not collapse at the first sign of Chinese regulars.

Xi Jinping is, _I think_, a _traditionalist_; if I'm correct he will eschew conventional war, considering it only as a last resort, and will try to _defeat_ North Korea by any other means. For the moment, the DPRK is as much a useful tool as it is a problem. The _"trick"_ for Kim Jung Un's government is to maintain that balance.

_Edited to add:_

Further to the above, Ray Kwong, a well connected journalist/teacher/entrepreneur suggests that Korea _may_ have a good stock of nuclear weapons ...

          
	

	
	
		
		

		
		
	


	




                    ... even the low end estimate (_guesstimate?_) is enough to make even the Chinese think twice.

There has to be a better way ...


----------



## CougarKing

One can only hope they weren't literally fed to the dogs like his uncle or executed at point-blank range with anti-aircraft guns like his uncle's aides this time...

Reuters



> *North Korea's Kim ordered 15 executions this year: South's spy agency*
> 
> SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korean leader Kim Jong Un ordered the execution of 15 senior officials this year as punishment for challenging his authority, South Korea's spy agency told a closed-door parliament meeting on Wednesday.
> 
> A vice minister for forestry was one of the officials executed for complaining about a state policy, a member of parliament's intelligence committee, Shin Kyung-min, quoted an unnamed National Intelligence Service official as saying.
> 
> "Excuses or reasoning doesn't work for Kim Jong Un, and his style of rule is to push through everything, and if there's any objection, he takes that as a challenge to authority and comes back with execution as a showcase," Shin said.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## tomahawk6

Spring cleaning Kim Jong Un style.


----------



## CougarKing

Riiight. Let's see how far they will cross into North Korea before the sentries clobber them...

Foreign Policy



> *North Korea’s Fellow Travelers
> Gloria Steinem, two Nobel Laureates, and 26 other women will be making a big mistake if they march across the DMZ with Christine Ahn.*
> 
> On May 24, a march billed as WomenCrossDMZ will try to pass through the two-mile wide demilitarized zone (DMZ) that separates North and South Korea in a “symbolic act of peace.” Organized by the Korean-American activist Christine Ahn, the march’s 30 confirmed participants include feminist icon Gloria Steinem, Nobel Laureates Leymah Gbowee and Mairead Maguire, filmmaker Abigail Disney, and Amnesty International Americas director Erika Guevara Rosas.
> 
> Ahn says that her march, walking from north to south, intends “to help reunite families, improve human rights in North Korea, and end the state of war for 70 million Koreans.” With Steinem and Nobel Laureates on board, the effort has garnered coverage from the New York Times and the Guardian. Ahn, who is in contact with officials from North Korea, said she traveled there to obtain Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un’s official stamp of approval: an expression of “full support” and a promise to “render all necessary assistances” for plans that even include an “international peace symposium” in Pyongyang, where marchers hope to share “ideas of mobilizing women to bring an end to violent conflict.”
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## midget-boyd91

S.M.A. said:
			
		

> Riiight. Let's see how far they will cross into North Korea before the sentries clobber them...
> 
> Foreign Policy



Sounds like they'll be walking the other way, from north to south.


----------



## CougarKing

The extreme, hyperbolic statements used by the North Korean media, such as the claim they can now "wipe out" all their enemies, really is hilarious sometimes.

Daily Mail



> *North Korea claims 'eye-opening success' of first test-firing of ballistic missile from submarine*
> 
> Kim Jong Un says North Korea is now capable of 'wiping out' any enemy
> Security experts call claims of the weapons advance are 'alarming'
> Missiles on a submarine are harder to detect before they are launched
> But previous tests were conducted from a platform and not a submarine
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## CougarKing

Daily Mail



> *Kim Jong-un 'ordered his aunt be poisoned because she complained when her husband was executed'*
> 
> Defector claims Kim Jong-un ordered his aunt Kim Kyong Hui be poisoned
> She was wife of leader's uncle Jang Song Thaek, who was executed in 2013
> Jang was killed, reportedly by firing squad, on charges including treason
> Aunt was poisoned because she complained about execution, it's claimed
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## CougarKing

Another day, another execution in North Korea...

Reuters



> *North Korea executes defense chief on treason charges: South Korean media*
> 
> SEOUL (Reuters) - *North Korea has executed its defense chief on treason charges after he fell asleep at an event attended by leader Kim Jong Un*, South Korean media quoted Seoul's National Intelligence Service as saying in a briefing to lawmakers on Wednesday.
> 
> North Korean Defense Minister Hyon Yong Chol was purged and then executed by firing squad, media reported.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## OldSolduer

S.M.A. said:
			
		

> Another day, another execution in North Korea...
> 
> Reuters



And I thought the Soviets were nasty.....


----------



## jollyjacktar

How they did it made me blurt out a laugh (poor taste I know   :-[).  The CBC is reporting it was by anti-aircraft fire.  At least he went out with a bang.

And from the Daily Mail, it suggests it's a common theme as of late.  Daily Mail story


----------



## chanman

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> Dealing with North Korea _by force_ is not a sure thing, even for China.
> 
> The geography is daunting; Korea is a peninsula.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The only 'land' border is, in fact, a large river. The _Yalu_ is a formidable obstacle and the Chinese road/rail network in Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning provinces, while much improved, is not as extensive and well developed as in other, more populated regions. A good logistical _tail_ would be essential because the DPRK military is large and _might_ not collapse at the first sign of Chinese regulars.
> 
> Xi Jinping is, _I think_, a _traditionalist_; if I'm correct he will eschew conventional war, considering it only as a last resort, and will try to _defeat_ North Korea by any other means. For the moment, the DPRK is as much a useful tool as it is a problem. The _"trick"_ for Kim Jung Un's government is to maintain that balance.
> 
> _Edited to add:_
> 
> Further to the above, Ray Kwong, a well connected journalist/teacher/entrepreneur suggests that Korea _may_ have a good stock of nuclear weapons ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ... even the low end estimate (_guesstimate?_) is enough to make even the Chinese think twice.
> 
> There has to be a better way ...



Makes me wonder about all those recently acquired amphibious assets the PLAN's been acquiring. North Korea's arable land is concentrated on their western coast. Putting it in the hands of a friendly faction would let them starve out the uncooperative factions... but the it could also be a staggering humanitarian disaster if the dispute isn't quickly resolved. Famine is possibly the most efficient means of mass murder, whether deliberate (Stalin and the Ukraine, Armenian genocide, etc.) or accidental (Great Leap Forward)


----------



## CougarKing

North Korea actually enacting the same kind of economic reforms enacted under Deng Xiaoping in 1980s China?

Diplomat



> *How Is North Korea's Economy Doing?
> A recent report suggests North Korea’s economy is making progress. Can we know for sure?*
> 
> Is North Korea’s dilapidated economy on the rise? And if so, does that mean better living standards for ordinary North Koreans? The answer to both seems to be “yes,” according to a report released Sunday by the Congressional Research Service.
> 
> Modest economic growth has improved conditions for a segment of the population, according to media accounts of the report. As per usual procedure, the think tank of the U.S. legislature did not make the report public.
> 
> *The sunnier economic conditions can be attributed to limited agricultural and labor reforms introduced by the regime of Kim Jong-un, the report argues. In a break from its communist past, the government now allows farmers to keep a portion of their harvest and empowers managers to make some hiring and firing decisions.*
> 
> Reports of growing wealth in North Korea aren’t new. Travelers to the capital Pyongyang, especially, have noted the emergence of relatively affluent middle class in recent years.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## CougarKing

An update on that Canadian pastor being held in North Korea:

Reuters



> *North Korea shows captive Canadian pastor confessing before congregation*
> 
> SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korea released video footage on Monday of a Canadian pastor confessing before a Pyongyang church congregation that he had committed crimes against the state.
> 
> Hyeon Soo Lim, of the 3,000-member Light Korean Presbyterian Church in Toronto, traveled to North Korea in January this year on a routine humanitarian visit. He has been detained since February.
> 
> Dressed in a dark blue suit and tie and speaking to a sparse congregation which included some foreign residents of Pyongyang, South Korean-born Lim appeared to be reading from a script.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## CougarKing

A couple of years ago we heard about that North Korean ship, carrying weapons to and from Cuba, that was stopped in Panama. Now we have this:

Associated Press/Canadian Press



> *North Korea ship held in Mexico sought for seizure in rare $330 million legal win*
> The Canadian Press
> By Cara Anna, The Associated Press
> 
> Winning a lawsuit against North Korea is rare. Collecting millions of dollars in damages from the isolated country? Pretty much impossible. But an Israel-based civil rights group thinks it has found a way, starting with a North Korean ship that's been held, against Pyongyang's wishes, in a Mexican port for the past year.
> 
> The effort illustrates the challenges of holding North Korea to account in more ways than one.
> 
> The Shurat HaDin law centre began its pursuit after winning a $330 million U.S. District Court judgment in April over the abduction of a South Korean-born pastor in China and his presumed torture and killing in North Korea 15 years ago. Now the centre is aiming for whatever North Korean assets it can find.
> 
> *It has focused on the Mu Du Bong, a cargo ship that accidentally ran aground off Mexico last July. Despite North Korea's protests, a panel of experts that monitors U.N. sanctions against Pyongyang for its nuclear and missile programs asked the Mexican government not to release it.*
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## CougarKing

;D Anyone want a "man purse" from an executed defence minister? 

Reuters



> *Made in North Korea: goods store opens to brisk business in Seoul*
> Reuters
> 
> By Hooyeon Kim
> SEOUL (Reuters) - A shop in South Korea's capital specializing in goods made in the North has run nearly $140,000 through its tills in just three months of business, helping dispel the notion that products from the impoverished state are shoddy and undesirable.
> 
> *The Kaesong Industrial Complex Shop opened in May showcasing North Korea and the skills of its workers, to present the country as a viable business partner to the prosperous South.*
> 
> "North Korean employees are young and are fast learners, and we use materials from the South. So the quality is just as good as products of South Korean brands, at relatively lower prices," said shop vice president Lee Joung-duk.
> 
> Lee is president of Young Inner Foam Corp, one of 125 firms from the South operating in Kaesong. The industrial zone was set up by the two Koreas in 2003 a few kilometers north of their armed border, and now employs about 53,000 North Koreans.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## CougarKing

Another day, another high-level execution in North Korea:

Yahoo News



> *North Korea Vice Premier Choe Yong-Gon ‘Executed For Opposing Kim Jong-Un’*
> 
> Yahoo News – 1 hour 18 minutes ago
> 
> North Korea has reportedly executed its vice premier for voicing opposition to the country’s leader, Kim Jong-Un.
> 
> *Choe Yong-Gon*, seen above on the right talking with Bahk Byong-won, the vice finance minister of South Korea, was said to have been killed by firing squad in May this year after he spoke out against Kim Jong-Un’s forestry policies.
> 
> An anonymous source made the claims to a South Korean intelligence agency.
> 
> While the 63-year-old’s death is yet to be verified, his name has not been mentioned in North Korea state media since October last year.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## CougarKing

Is Kim Jong Un inching to take the plunge to try to conquer the South when his father Kim Jong Il merely sabre-rattled and his grandfather Kim Il Sung was fought to a standstill during the last Korean War?

Reuters



> *North Korea orders troops on war footing after exchange of fire with South*
> Thu Aug 20, 2015 11:15pm EDT
> 
> By Ju-min Park and Tony Munroe
> 
> SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korean leader Kim Jong Un ordered his troops onto a war footing from 5 p.m on Friday after Pyongyang issued an ultimatum to Seoul to halt anti-North propaganda broadcasts by Saturday afternoon or face military action.
> 
> Tension on the divided peninsula escalated on Thursday when North Korea fired shells into South Korea to protest against the loudspeaker broadcasts from the Korean border. The South responded with its own artillery barrage.
> 
> Both sides said there were no casualties or damage in their territory.
> 
> The North's shelling came after it had demanded last weekend that South Korea end the broadcasts or face military action - a relatively rare case of it following up on its frequent threats against the South.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## Lumber

I'm going to go with Sabre-rattling.

I'm no expert on North Korean politics and internal affairs, but I have a feeling that there are a lot of people in high places with a lot more to lose from a war than they have to gain. They'll keep the little whippersnapper on a leash.


----------



## George Wallace

Lumber said:
			
		

> I'm no expert on North Korean politics and internal affairs, but I have a feeling that there are a lot of people in high places with a lot more to lose from a war than they have to gain. They'll keep the little whippersnapper on a leash.



I think; if you check back to recent events, that 'young whippersnapper' has held a few firing squads using Anti-Aircraft guns with many of those 'people in high places' standing out front in the 'receiving line'.


----------



## a_majoor

From CNN:

http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/21/asia/koreas-tensions/



> Paju, South Korea (CNN)—The United States suspended, then resumed joint military exercises with South Korea this week after North Korea fired artillery shells across the Demilitarized Zone, Assistant Secretary of Defense David Shear told reporters Friday.
> 
> The news of the pause, which happened Thursday, according to Shear, came as stern warnings flew back and forth across the border on the day before a North-imposed deadline for the South to shut off propaganda broadcasts or face war.
> 
> "We suspended part of the exercise temporarily in order to allow our side to coordinate with the ROK (Republic of Korea) side on the subject of the exchange fire across the DMZ," Shear said "And the exercise is being conducted now according to plan."
> 
> On Friday, Kim Jong Un, the supreme commander of the North Korean military, ordered front-line units along the heavily fortified frontier to move to a war footing, state media reported.
> 
> His nuclear-armed regime, known for being both thin-skinned and fond of saber rattling, has warned South Korea it faces military action if it doesn't turn off the propaganda loudspeakers by Saturday evening.
> 
> "The situation of the country is now inching closer to the brink of war," Ji Jae Ryong, North Korean ambassador to China, told journalists in Beijing on Friday. He blamed South Korea for the situation.
> 
> That doesn't necessarily mean war really is imminent: North Korea has used similar language in the past without hostilities breaking out. But South Korean Defense Minister Han Min-koo said Friday that North Korea was pushing the tensions "to the utmost level."
> 
> "North Korea's offensive action is a despicable crime that breaks a ceasefire agreement and the non-aggression treaty between North and South," Han said in an address broadcast on South Korean television.
> 
> "If North Korea continues on provoking, our military -- as we have already warned -- will respond sternly, and end the evil provocations of North Korea," he said, adding the country is working closely with the United States.
> 
> As the verbal sniping continued, the South's President, Park Geun-hye, visited troops at a base south of Seoul, receiving a briefing from military officials on the latest situation, her office said.
> 
> Tensions on the Korean Peninsula have been escalating since two South Korean soldiers were seriously wounded by landmines August 4 in the Demilitarized Zone.
> 
> South Korea and the U.S.-led U.N. Command in Korea concluded North Korea planted the mines on a patrol route in the southern part of the zone.
> 
> North Korea has denied responsibility and refused South Korean demands for an apology.
> 
> Seoul's response was to resume cross-border propaganda broadcasts last week for the first time in more than a decade, a move virtually guaranteed to anger the regime in Pyongyang.
> 
> Sure enough, North Korea announced last weekend that the broadcasts were a declaration of war and threatened to blow up the loudspeakers.
> 
> On Thursday, South Korean officials said the North fired artillery shells over the Demilitarized Zone that separates the two countries. The South fired back several dozen shells of its own, according to the Defense Ministry.
> 
> No casualties were reported by either side.
> 
> South Korean officials said some residents of the area targeted by North Korea on Thursday had to be evacuated, although many have since returned.
> 
> A U.S. official told CNN that North Korea was believed to be targeting a loudspeaker position.
> History of disputes
> 
> 
> It's not the first time that the two sides have briefly traded blows in recent years. They notably exchanged artillery fire over their disputed maritime border in 2010 and machine-gun fire over land in October.
> 
> But Thursday's clash was unusual because of the type of weapons used around the Demilitarized Zone, said Alison Evans, a senior analyst at IHS Country Risk.
> 
> "Cross-border attacks have mainly involved small-arms fire or, as in October 2014, anti-aircraft heavy machine guns," she said. "In contrast, there have been frequent exchanges of artillery and rocket fire across the Northern Limit Line (NLL), the de facto maritime border."
> 
> Amid the heightened tensions, North Korea's connection to the global Internet went down twice Friday, according to Dyn Research, a U.S-based private Internet-monitoring service. North Korea's Internet access last went down August 10 for 4 ½ hours, according to Dyn Research. The cause of the disruption was not immediately clear.
> 
> Is situation likely to escalate?
> 
> The question now is whether the situation will escalate further.
> 
> North Korea has used similarly alarming language in previous periods of high tension
> 
> In 2013, the country announced it had entered "a state of war" with South Korea. That situation didn't result in military action, although North Korea did temporarily shut down the two countries' joint industrial zone, which lies on its side of the border.
> 
> During that period, North Korea kept up a barrage of bombastic threats against the United States, South Korea and Japan. But at the same time, it continued accepting tourists and hosting international athletes in Pyongyang for a marathon.
> 
> South Korea said Friday that it was limiting the number of its citizens entering the joint industrial zone, but the complex was still operating. There are currently 83 South Koreans in Pyongyang attending a youth soccer event, including players and coaches, according to the South Korean Unification Ministry.
> 
> Jamie Metzl, an Asia expert for the Atlantic Council in New York, said he thought it was unlikely that the current crisis would escalate further.
> 
> "North Korea has more to gain from conflict theater than from a conflict that would quickly expose its fundamental weakness," he said, suggesting leaders in Pyongyang might be trying to "make trouble because they feel ignored by the international community and feel they have something to gain negotiating their way out of a mini-crisis."
> 
> But other analysts said the situation could still continue to deteriorate.
> 
> The shelling Thursday "raises questions frankly about Kim Jong Un's style of making tension, provocations, escalation -- and whether he knows how to control escalation," said Michael Green, an Asia specialist at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
> 
> U.S., China, urge calm
> Related Video: Rare look inside Korea's demilitarized zone 02:40
> 
> A spokeswoman for China's Foreign Ministry said Friday that the country is "paying great attention to the situation" and is "willing to work with all parties toward the peace and stability of the peninsula."
> 
> "We urge relevant parties to remain calm and restrained, use meetings and dialogue to properly handle the current situation, and stop any action that could escalate the tensions," spokeswoman Hua Chunying said.
> 
> U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon is "deeply concerned" about the situation, spokesman Eri Kaneko said.
> 
> The United States, which has roughly 28,000 troops stationed in South Korea, said it, too, is closely monitoring the situation.
> 
> "As we've said before, these kinds of provocative actions only heighten tensions," State Department spokesman John Kirby said Thursday, referring to the North Korean shelling. "And we call on Pyongyang to refrain from actions and rhetoric that threaten regional peace and security."
> 
> He said that Washington and Seoul are coordinating closely and that the United States "remains steadfast in its commitment to the defense, the security of the peninsula, to our alliance with South Korea."
> 
> North Korea has also expressed anger recently over previously planned joint military exercises this week involving tens of thousands of U.S. and South Korean troops.
> 
> Pyongyang has said it views such drills as a prelude to an invasion. Seoul and Washington have repeatedly dismissed North Korean requests to call off joint exercises in recent years.
> 
> CNN's Kathy Novak reported from Paju, South Korea, and Jethro Mullen reported and wrote from Hong Kong. CNN's K.J. Kwon, Barbara Starr, Brian Todd and Don Melvin and journalist Jung-eun Kim contributed to this report.


----------



## cupper

Correct me if I am wrong, but I don't recall hearing much about his father actually lobbing rockets or shells into the south. A lot of heavy posturing, shots traded across the DMZ, but nothing like the dude with the stupid haircut.

This could get out of control if there is no one who can reign him in, or provide sound guidance that gives him a way to back off but claim a huge victory over the imperialist running dogs.

Or convince him to inspect the barrel of the AA guns used to execute the former higher ups.


----------



## CougarKing

cupper said:
			
		

> Correct me if I am wrong, but I don't recall hearing much about his father actually lobbing rockets or shells into the south. A lot of heavy posturing, shots traded across the DMZ, but nothing like the dude with the stupid haircut



If you read my post carefully, you'll see that I was talking about both his father and grandfather. Kim Il Sung was the one who led the 1950 invasion of the South. 

And speaking about Kim Jong Il the father of Kim Jong Un, if I can recall correctly the South Korean Navy corvette ROKS _Cheonan_ was torpedoed and sunk during his time.


----------



## cupper

S.M.A. said:
			
		

> If you read my post carefully, you'll see that I was talking about both his father and grandfather. Kim Il Sung was the one who led the 1950 invasion of the South.
> 
> And speaking about Kim Jong Il the father of Kim Jong Un, if I can recall correctly the South Korean Navy corvette ROKS _Cheonan_ was torpedoed and sunk during his time.



I did get the points in your post re: Kim Il Sung and Kim Jung Il. 

I had thought that the sinking of the Cheonan took place after Kim Jung Il had died. Same with the shelling of Yeonpyeong Island. So I guess insanity is in the genes, just gets more unstable with each generation.


----------



## tomahawk6

The NORK''s have sallied their antiquated sub force[as many as 50] and now its claimed that we have "lost contact".That should amp things up a bit.


----------



## CougarKing

More on what T6 stated above:

Diplomat



> *
> North Korea Is Deploying Largest Submarine Fleet Since Korean War
> About 70 percent of Pyongyang’s submarines have left their homeports and are nowhere to be found.*
> 
> L1001025
> By Franz-Stefan Gady
> August 24, 2015
> 
> Over 50 North Korean submarines have left their homeports, according to a local media report. “Seventy percent of North Korea’s submarines left their bases, and their locations are not confirmed,” a South Korean military official told Yonhap News.
> 
> According to South Korean military officials, this constitutes the largest deployment of North Korean submarines since the end of the Korean War. U.S. and South Korean aircraft as well as naval vessels have so far unsuccessfully tried to locate the subs, making it difficult to ascertain whether their deployment is just a show of force, or whether they have received specific instructions to target South Korean shipping in the event of an escalation. “No one knows. We are mobilizing all our surveillance resources,” said a South Korean military spokesperson.
> 
> “This is a typical North Korean tactic of talking on one hand and brandishing military power on the other to try to force their way,” he added. After an escalation of tensions last week (See: “North Korea is Mobilizing For War”), Seoul and Pyongyang are currently engaged in their first high-level talks since February 2014 (See: “Amid ‘Quasi State of War,’ North, South Korea Hold First High-Level Talks in a Year”) with little progress so far.
> 
> While Pyongyang’s subs recently made headlines with the testing of  a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM), North Korea’s submarine force purportedly consists of 70 mostly obsolete boats, primarily used for coastal defense and reconnaissance operations, with limited capability for more offensive anti-ship operations (partially mostly due to lack of long-range air cover). The Korean People’s Navy (KPN) is believed to possess 20 Romeo-class vessels, 1,800-ton diesel-electric subs based on 1950s Soviet technology; 40,370 tons home-built  Sang-O-class diesel-electric submarines specifically designed for the insertion of special operation forces into the South but also capable of laying mines and conducting antisurface warfare; and approximately ten 130-ton Yono-class midget submarines.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## CougarKing

More U.S. assets on their way to discourage Pyongyang from escalating this further:




> *US ready to deploy B-52 bombers to South Korea amid escalating crisis with North Korea*
> 
> 
> (....SNIPPED)
> 
> Although the Defense Ministry spokesman did not say which U.S. assets are being considered for deployment in the region, sources cited by the South Korean Yohap New Agency suggested that the U.S. forces might include the B-52 Stratofortress bombers, and a nuclear-powered submarine currently stationed in Yokosuka, Japan.
> 
> Read more: Business Insider


http://www.businessinsider.com/us-r...-crisis-with-north-korea-2015-8#ixzz3jkUzyDnZ


----------



## tomahawk6

At some point this could spiral out of control.


----------



## CougarKing

A war narrowly avoided? 




> *Koreas reach agreement after marathon talks*
> 
> August 25, 2015
> 
> SEOUL, Aug. 25 (Yonhap) — South Korea and North Korea reached an agreement Tuesday, Seoul’s presidential spokesman said, ending days of marathon talks aimed at defusing tensions on the Korean Peninsula.
> 
> South Korea’s National Security Adviser Kim Kwan-jin — the country’s chief negotiator to the talks — will announce the details of the agreement at 2 a.m., according to Min Kyung-
> 
> Korea Observer





> 24 August 2015
> 
> Yonhap reported that the deal, to be announced later on Monday, would see North Korea express "regret" over the landmine incident earlier this month.
> 
> In return, it said South Korea would stop the loudspeaker broadcasts that were resumed after an 11-year hiatus, in apparent retaliation for the landmine attack.
> 
> BBC


----------



## Edward Campbell

There pictures are from two days ago, from the New Tang Dynasty TV network which is headquartered in the USA.

The article says that China is moving (moved) tanks (and other units, I see APCs and SP howitzers, too) to the North Korean border regions.


----------



## Edward Campbell

Now, in this article, which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from _The Diplomat_, we have some speculation about what China did and why:

http://thediplomat.com/2015/08/why-did-china-amass-tanks-at-the-north-korean-border/?utm_content=bufferdb976&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer


> Why Did China Amass Tanks at the North Korean Border?
> *Was it simply good preparation — or was Beijing trying to send a message to Pyongyang?*
> 
> By Shannon Tiezzi
> 
> August 26, 2015
> 
> Even as North and South Korea engaged in hours of talks over the weekend, in the hopes of defusing tensions, China was apparently making its own preparations for a worst-case scenario on the Korean peninsula.
> 
> On Saturday, Chinese social media users began posting pictures of tanks and other military equipment moving through city streets. The photos were purportedly taken in Yanji, China, the capital of Yanbian prefecture in Jilin province, which lies along the China-Korea border.
> 
> Other Chinese social media users posted pictures of a train appearing to carry more military equipment – but those pictures were explained as showing military technology on its way to Beijing for the upcoming military parade. There was some confusion about this point, with some of the same pictures being identified by different sources as taken in or outside of Yanji and Beijing.
> 
> _NK News_, in its analysis of the images, said the photos represented “a mechanical unit at least the size of a brigade,” made up of “PTZ-89 tank destroyers (Type 89), a PGZ-95 self-propelled anti-aircraft guns (Type 95 SPAAA), and 155 mm self-propelled guns.” Kim Min-seok of the Korea Defense and Security Forum told NK News that there’s precedent of China sending additional units to the border region during times of increased tensions on the peninsula: “During the bombardment of Yeonpyeong in 2010 and after the purge of Jang Song Thaek in 2013, Chinese units were quickly sent to the area to prevent any unexpected surprises from the China-North Korea border.”
> 
> _NK News_’ analysts agreed that China was trying to send a message to North Korea by moving additional military equipment close to the border: Don’t do anything rash.
> 
> Interestingly, the photos of troop movements in Yanji began appearing on Chinese social media on Saturday morning – and North and South Korea began their high-level talks on Saturday evening. The timing suggests that Beijing may have massed tanks near the North Korean border to provide extra incentive for the negotiations to go smoothly.
> 
> If China did indeed send its forces to the border to help intimidate Pyongyang into negotiating an end to current tensions, that would be music to Seoul’s ears. South Korea’s Cheong Wa Dae recently announced that President Park Geun-hye will attend China’s September 3 celebrations of the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II – despite reports that the United States had pressured her to turn down the invitation. At the time, Korean media suggested Park made her decision in the hopes that Beijing would reciprocate by helping encourage North Korea to scale down tensions. The announcement about Park’s trip to Beijing was made on Thursday, just after North and South Korea exchanged artillery fire.
> 
> The next day, on August 21, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying addressed the tensions on the Korean Peninsula for the first time, saying that China “is deeply concerned about what has happened recently.” China “opposes any action that may escalate tension,” Hua added, urging “relevant parties to remain calm and restrained.”
> 
> However, the military movement may have a far less interesting explanation. On August 21, Kim Jong-un famously issued an order for the Korean People’s Army to “be fully battle ready.” Park, meanwhile, had also called for “strong military readiness” in South Korea and the U.S. military in South Korea went on an “enhanced [alert] status.” China may merely have been responding in kind, raising the readiness of troops in the border by mobilizing additional supplies.
> 
> On Monday, North and South Korea reached an agreement to deescalate tensions. North Korea expressed “regret” over a landmine explosion that seriously injured two South Korean soldiers (though, as John Power points out, Pyongyang did not actually apologize or accept responsibility for the blast). In return, Seoul will once again stop broadcasting anti-North propaganda in the border region. China’s government welcomed the agreement.


----------



## CougarKing

China's changing relationship with North Korea:

Diplomat



> *Assessing North Korea’s 'Ground Game' with China
> Has something changed about Chinese-North Korean relations behind the scenes?*
> 
> By Adam Cathcart
> August 27, 2015
> 
> Less than 24 hours after the ostensible end of “the August Crisis” along the Korean Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), Zhang Ming, one of China’s various vice-foreign ministers, revealed that the DPRK will send Choe Ryong-hae as its rather high-level representative to Beijing’s September 3 parade, bearing his Party titles. In spite of the borderline silly and solipsistic propaganda being produced about the parade by Chinese Communist Party media, the event itself and the activities around it promise to result in a high-stakes diplomatic event.
> 
> Not least, South Korean President Park Geun-hye’s attendance at the parade is sure to prompt a wave of speculation about the prospects for yet more inter-Korean talks. Given how low the proverbial bar is – the notion of “progress” in North-South Korean relations at present consists of any interaction that does not involve cursing at or trying to kill or intimidate the other party – it is hard to see how this could fail to induce hopes for a breakthrough.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)



And now China's denying the PLA did a buildup near their border with North Korea:

Reuters



> *China denies rushing forces to border during Korean tensions*
> Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:02am EDT
> 
> BEIJING (Reuters) - China did not rush reinforcements to its border with North Korea following a rise in tensions between the two Koreas last week, China's Defence Ministry said on Thursday, adding that its forces were in normal deployment.
> 
> Pictures circulated on Chinese websites over the weekend, which were picked up by some overseas Chinese newspapers, appeared to show the People's Liberation Army bringing in additional tanks to Yanbian, a Chinese border city.
> 
> Chinese Defence Ministry spokesman Yang Yujun said those reports were "untrue and completely hyped up".
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## CougarKing

The cycle of brinksmanship continues for the hermit state once again:

Reuters



> *North Korea says main nuclear complex operational, warns U.S.*
> Tue Sep 15, 2015 8:29am EDT
> By Jack Kim and Ju-min Park
> 
> SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korea said on Tuesday its main nuclear complex was operating and it was working to improve the "quality and quantity" of its weapons which it could use against the United States at "any time".
> 
> The comments follow a declaration by the North in 2013 vowing to restart all nuclear facilities, including the main nuclear reactor in Yongbyon that had been shuttered.
> 
> It marked the first acknowledgement since then that the plant, which has been the source of fissile material used in the country's atomic weapons program, is operational, experts said.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## cupper

op:


----------



## CougarKing

It seems North Korea won't be outdone by China and Russia's recent grand military parades.

Diplomat



> *North Korea's Military Parade: Major Takeaways
> North Korea commemorated the 70th anniversary of the Korean Worker’s Party’s founding, with China looking on.*
> 
> By Ankit Panda
> October 11, 2015
> 
> On Saturday, October 10, North Korea celebrated the 70th anniversary of the founding of Korean Workers’ Party. At the center of the celebrations was a major national parade through Pyongyang’s Kim Il-sung Square, which featured everything from goose-stepping Korean People’s Army (KPA) troops and slow-rolling jungle camouflaged transporter erector launchers (TELs) for North Korea’s latest and greatest missiles. For Asia observers who’d watched China’s September 3 parade a little over a month ago, the spectacle was familiar in its form but clearly different in its details.
> 
> Adding that classically North Korean touch to the entire event, Kim Jong-un delivered remarks, expressing his gratitude and admiration for the KPA and notifying the world that North Korea’s soldiers were “ready for any kind of war against the United States.” Kim’s speech brought to life the words that traditionally flow from the regime’s state media outlet Rodong Sinmun, which regularly calls for war against South Korea and the United States. Notably, Kim’s remarks did not include any references to the country’s nuclear weapons program or threaten nuclear weapon use. For Kim, the parade was a rousing propaganda success. Clad in black and there to be seen by all, the event was an opportunity for the young leader, rumored to have been beleaguered by factionalism and opposition within his own government, to emphasize his command over the country’s armed forces.
> 
> As Shannon Tiezzi noted ahead of the parade*, Liu Yunshung arrived in Pyongyang on Friday on a four-day visit. Liu is the first member of the Politburo Standing Committee, to visit North Korea since Kim Jong-un became the country’s leader after his father’s death*. On Friday night, shortly after his arrival Liu presented a letter from Chinese President Xi Jinping into Kim Jong-un’s hands, suggesting that, despite the optics of the past 16 or so months, China and North Korea may finally be ready to move toward a thaw of sorts. China has historically been North Korea’s closest partner and benefactor.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)






> For observers of North Korean military hardware, a widely broadcast parade such as this one provided a unique opportunity to take a look at the normally closed-off country’s equipment.* The KPA paraded TELs carrying the KN-08/Hwasong-13 inter-continental ballistic missile, the country’s most advanced long-range ballistic missile. Also on display were some of the older systems, including the Nodong, Musudan, and Scud-C missile systems. The KPA even put on display submarine-launched ballistic missiles, including its SS-N-18 Vysota variant.*
> 
> The October 10 festivities in North Korea are also notable for what they didn’t include: any ballistic missile or satellite launches.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## CougarKing

Paving the way for greater Russian involvement in the Korean Peninsula?

Diplomat



> *Putin Sends Russian Military to North Korea
> 
> A Russian military delegation is currently in Pyongyang talking to the Command of the Korean People’s Army.*
> L1001025
> By Franz-Stefan Gady
> November 11, 2015
> 
> A Russian military delegation arrived in Pyongyang on Monday to conduct a military-to-military dialogue with the command of the Korean People’s Army TASS reports.
> 
> The Russian delegation, headed by First Deputy Chief of Russia’s General Staff Nikolay Bogdanovsky, is slated to begin talks with their North Korean counterparts this Wednesday and will stay in North Korea until November 13.
> 
> The precise topics of discussion between Russia and North Korea are unknown, although there have been speculations that a defense agreement “on prevention of dangerous military activities” could be signed as a result of the talks.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## CougarKing

You can never be certain which top officials are still in favour in a state as reclusive or as oppressive as North Korea:

Diplomat



> *Funeral List Debunks North Korean Purge Rumors
> 
> Two top officials rumored to have been executed have reappeared in elite North Korean politics.*
> 
> By John Power
> November 12, 2015
> 
> (...SNIPPED)
> 
> Han Kwang-sang and Kim Kyong-ok were among the most prominent of several supposedly purged officials named on the list of committee members, which was released by North Korean state media ahead of the funeral of Marshal Ri Ul-sol on Wednesday.
> 
> The committee list was widely seen as a rundown of the country’s top brass, and the* inclusion of Han and Kim indicates that they remain alive and in favor with the regime.
> 
> In May, South Korea’s National Intelligence Service told local lawmakers that Han was among 15 senior officials executed so far this year. The intelligence briefing came seven months after North Korea Intellectuals Solidarity, a group of activist defectors, claimed that Kim had been ordered killed.*
> 
> Both Han, who headed the finance department of the Korean Workers’ Party, and Kim, first deputy director of the ruling party’s powerful Organization and Guidance Department, were regarded as among ruler Kim Jong-un’s closest aides.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## CougarKing

Another day, another purge in North Korea:

Kim Jong Un waking up on the wrong side of the bed: "That guard looks ugly...I want him purged!!!"

Diplomat



> *Senior North Korean Official Gets Sent for 'Re-education'*
> Choe Ryong-hae, a senior North Korean official and frequent diplomatic envoy, has been punished for incompetence.
> By Ankit Panda
> November 25, 2015
> 
> New rumblings out of North Korea suggest that Kim Jong-un’s seemingly unending power-consolidation process continues. Specifically, *the mystery of where Choe Ryong Hae, a former “key aide” to Kim Jong-un and de facto regime number two at one point, went appears to have been resolved.* Choe’s status has been the subject of speculation for North Korea watchers after he didn’t appear on a list prepared for the state funeral of a senior North Korean military official earlier this month.
> 
> Based on credible reports from South Korean intelligence, Yonhap reports that* Choe was sent to a local farm as punishment for his mishandling of a power station construction project.* In addition to Choe’s alleged incompetence, *South Korean intelligence suggested that Kim and Choe encountered personal disagreements.* Choe, secretary of the Worker’s Party of Korea (WPK), is reportedly set to receive “re-education” through hard labor.
> 
> Choe’s story within the North Korean regime drew attention when, after the execution of Kim Jong-un’s uncle Jang Song-thaek, he was elevated as the second most powerful figure in the regime. (Choe and Kim share family ties as well; a report earlier this year noted that Kim’s younger sister married Choe’s son.) Matters become blurry thereafter and, in April 2015, Hwang Pyong-so effectively confirmed his claim to the title of “number two” when he was given membership in the politburo presidium of North Korea’s Workers’ Party of Korea. Hwang’s additional role as the top political officer in North Korea’s military put him above Choe and ended speculation on Choe’s claim to that role.
> 
> Choe is also notable in North Korea for having repeatedly acted as an envoy.
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## CougarKing

It seems that it's straight to the work camps for Kim Jong Un's rocket scientists for this latest failure:


Diplomat



> *North Korea's Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile Test Fails
> 
> North Korea tested its Bukkeukseong-1/KN-11 missile again. This time, the test may actually have been submarine-launched.*
> 
> By Ankit Panda
> November 30, 2015
> 
> Back in May 2015 we witnessed North Korea conduct an ejection test for its KN-11/Bukkeukseong-1 (“Polaris-1”) submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM). That test, insofar as the ejection itself is concerned, was successful, even though it later emerged that Pyongyang’s video production of the launch was careless in masking that it was actually staged from an underwater barge and not a submarine. On Saturday afternoon, North Korea attempted another KN-11 test-launch which failed.
> 
> South Korea’s Yonhap news agency reported that the test launch, which was staged from a submarine, took place in the East Sea “failed to soar from the waters,” according to an unidentified South Korean official. The Korea Herald adds that a source noted that “The cover of the capsule where the missile was placed has been found,” presumably by South Korean authorities. The event marks the second SLBM test since the Bukkeukseong-1 back in May. Kim Jong-un himself oversaw that launch and North Korea released widely circulated video footage showcasing the successful ejection.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## CougarKing

Signs that food shortages in North Korea are worse than previously thought?

CBC



> *North Korean fishing boats carrying corpses wash up in Japan
> Pressure from leader Kim Jong-un to catch more fish may have sent ill-equipped boats off course*
> 
> Fishing boats carrying decomposed corpses have washed ashore in Japan in recent weeks, leading to speculation they are rickety North Korean vessels that have strayed dangerously far from port under the impoverished nation's push to boost its catch.
> 
> There has been no mention from secretive North Korea of any missing boats, but its leader, Kim Jong-un, has put a high priority on fishing as a way of earning foreign currency and providing a sustainable food source that is not reliant on harvests and weather.
> 
> The Japanese coast guard and police reported 12 incidents of wrecked wooden boats, including some that were in pieces, on the country's shores and waters since October, containing 22 dead bodies, including five skulls.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## CougarKing

Poor girls...being forced to be the fat one's personal harem...

Shanghaiist



> *Kim Jong-un's personal girl group will take the stage in Beijing this weekend*
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> North Korean pop sensations the Moranbong Band are set to strengthen the bond between China and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea this weekend via song and dance. The group arrived yesterday in Liaoning province for their overseas debut which, according to Xinhua, will be happening at the Beijing's National Center for the Performing Arts from December 12 to 14.
> 
> Sadly, tickets aren't available to the public.


----------



## CougarKing

North Korea has a Hydrogen bomb?

Defense News



> *North Korea Leader Hints at H-Bomb Capability*
> Agence France-Presse 11:49 a.m. EST December 10, 2015
> 
> SEOUL — North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un has suggested his nuclear-armed state has developed a hydrogen bomb, a move that would signal a major step forward in its nuclear weapons capabilities.
> 
> During a recent inspection tour of a historical military site, Kim mentioned that North Korea was already a "powerful nuclear weapons state ready to detonate self-reliant A-bomb and H-bomb to reliably defend its sovereignty", the North's official KCNA news agency said Thursday.
> 
> North Korea has already tested three atom bombs, which rely on nuclear fission.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## CougarKing

Apparently, a huge disagreement over one line in one of the aforementioned girl band's songs saw the show cancelled and the girls back on a plane to North Korea:

New York Times



> *North Korean Band Abruptly Leaves China, Its Concerts Canceled*
> 
> Sinosphere
> 
> By EDWARD WONG DEC. 12, 2015
> 
> BEIJING — The favorite pop band of North Korea’s young leader abruptly boarded a plane to return home on Saturday, just hours before an important concert here. The concert would have been the band’s first one overseas and was one of three in the Chinese capital intended to improve relations between the nations.
> 
> The group, Moranbong Band, has about 20 members, all slim young women who wear tight dresses and high heels while performing both Western pop songs and North Korean revolutionary standards. They are a contrast to the staid image of the brand of authoritarian socialism that has existed for decades in North Korea under the rule of three generations of the same family. Some reports have said the band’s members were handpicked by the country’s leader, Kim Jong-un, whose wife is a former singer from another band.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## CougarKing

Not surprising that the kangaroo court convicted him after only 90 minutes...

Yahoo News



> *North Korean court sentences Canadian pastor to life for anti-state activities*
> 
> The Associated Press
> The Canadian Press
> December 16, 2015
> 
> PYONGYANG, North Korea - North Korea's Supreme Court sentenced a Canadian pastor to life in prison with hard labour on Wednesday for what it called crimes against the state.
> *
> Hyeon Soo Lim, who pastors the Light Korean Presbyterian Church in Toronto*, was given the sentence after a 90-minute trial. He had been in detention since February.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## CougarKing

The scary prospect of North Korea having thermonuclear weapons is examined in this article:

Diplomat



> *Does North Korea Really Have an H-Bomb?*
> 
> A closer look at Kim Jong-un’s recent comments.
> By 38 North / Jeffrey Lewis
> December 16, 2015
> 
> (...SNIPPED)
> 
> Technically, a few words of caution are in order. Building a staged thermonuclear weapon — one in which the radiation from a fission primary compresses a secondary stage of thermonuclear fuel — would seem to be a bit of a stretch for the North Koreans. That is the sort of device one normally thinks about when someone says “H-bomb.” Thermonuclear weapons are tricky; making one work requires a bit of test experience. While the North Koreans finally conducted an unambiguously successful nuclear test in 2013, the 2006 and 2009 tests were less so.
> 
> A more technically plausible scenario is that *North Korea might be experimenting with fusion fuels, such as deuterium or lithium, to boost the yield of a fission explosion. Pretty much every country that builds nuclear weapons looks at using fusion fuel to boost the yield of a device. *China, for example, burned lithium-6 in its third test, conducted less than two years after its first nuclear test in October 1964. China was committed to developing a staged thermonuclear device, something it accomplished with its fifth and sixth nuclear tests in 1966 and 1967. Pakistan tried to purchase a tritium separation line, something AQ Khan claims it did successfully. Even South Africa had a program to look at boosting its gun-type devices for missile delivery, going so far as to import tritium from Israel.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## McG

It appears that 2016 can be added to the list of years during which North Korea fired a nuclear bomb test.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/north-korea-earthquake-suspected-to-be-nuclear-test/article28029878/


----------



## CougarKing

More on the above:

Diplomat



> *North Korea Tests Nuclear Device, Claims Successful Thermonuclear Detonation
> 
> On Wednesday, North Korea conducted its first nuclear test since 2013, claiming to have tested its first thermonuclear device*
> 
> By Ankit Panda
> January 06, 2016
> 
> 
> At approximately 10:00 a.m. local time on Wednesday, January 6, North Korea detonated a nuclear device of an unknown yield. In an announcement on state television, the North Korean regime claimed that the device was a hydrogen bomb and that the test was successful. The test was conducted at  41.326°N 129.010°E, near the location of North Korea’s last test in February 2013, which was conducted at  41.302°N 129.066°E. Both test sites are a short distance from the North Korean nuclear facility at Punggye-ri. According to the European Mediterranean Seismological Center, the epicenter of the detonation was approximately 2 kilometers underground.
> 
> In announcing the test, the North Korean government emphasized that the device was to protect against powers hostile to the country. The timing of the attack is somewhat surprising as Kim Jong-un’s New Year’s address was less focused on the country’s military and the nuclear program than it was on economic issues. However, January 8 marks Kim’s birthday, suggesting that the nuclear test was something of a preemptive birthday celebration for the North Korean leader who took over after his father Kim Jong-il died in 2011. This is the second test on Kim Jong-un’s watch.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## The Bread Guy

A bit more from the N.Korean info-machine:


> Pyongyang, January 6 (KCNA) -- The DPRK government issued the following statement Wednesday:
> 
> There took place a world startling event to be specially recorded in the national history spanning 5 000 years in the exciting period when all service personnel and people of the DPRK are making a giant stride, performing eye-catching miracles and exploits day by day after turning out as one in the all-out charge to bring earlier the final victory of the revolutionary cause of Juche, true to the militant appeal of the Workers' Party of Korea (WPK).
> 
> The first H-bomb test was successfully conducted in Juche Korea at 10:00 on Wednesday, Juche 105 (2016), pursuant to the strategic determination of the WPK.
> 
> Through the test conducted with indigenous wisdom, technology and efforts the DPRK fully proved that the technological specifications of the newly developed H-bomb for the purpose of test were accurate and scientifically verified the power of smaller H-bomb.
> 
> It was confirmed that the H-bomb test conducted in a safe and perfect manner had no adverse impact on the ecological environment.
> 
> The test means a higher stage of the DPRK's development of nuclear force.
> 
> By succeeding in the H-bomb test in the most perfect manner to be specially recorded in history the DPRK proudly joined the advanced ranks of nuclear weapons states possessed of even H-bomb and the Korean people came to demonstrate the spirit of the dignified nation equipped with the most powerful nuclear deterrent.
> 
> This test is a measure for self-defence the DPRK has taken to firmly protect the sovereignty of the country and the vital right of the nation from the ever-growing nuclear threat and blackmail by the U.S.-led hostile forces and to reliably safeguard the peace on the Korean Peninsula and regional security.
> 
> Since the appearance of the word hostility in the world there has been no precedent of such deep-rooted, harsh and persistent policy as the hostile policy the U.S. has pursued towards the DPRK.
> 
> The U.S. is a gang of cruel robbers which has worked hard to bring even a nuclear disaster to the DPRK, not content with having imposed the thrice-cursed and unheard-of political isolation, economic blockade and military pressure on it for the mere reason that it has differing ideology and social system and refuses to yield to the former's ambition for aggression.
> 
> The Korean Peninsula and its vicinity are turning into the world's biggest hotspot where a nuclear war may break out since they have been constantly stormed with all nuclear strike means of the U.S. imperialist aggressor troops, including nuclear carrier strike group and nuclear strategic flying corps.
> 
> While kicking up all forms of economic sanctions and conspiratorial "human rights" racket against the DPRK with mobilization of the hostile forces, the U.S. has made desperate efforts to block its building of a thriving nation and improvement of the people's living standard and "bring down its social system".
> 
> The DPRK's access to H-bomb of justice, standing against the U.S., the chieftain of aggression watching for a chance for attack on it with huge nukes of various types, is the legitimate right of a sovereign state for self-defense and a very just step no one can slander.
> 
> Genuine peace and security cannot be achieved through humiliating solicitation or compromise at the negotiating table.
> 
> The present-day grim reality clearly proves once again the immutable truth that one's destiny should be defended by one's own efforts.
> 
> Nothing is more foolish than dropping a hunting gun before herds of ferocious wolves.
> 
> The spectacular success made by the DPRK in the H-bomb test this time is a great deed of history, a historic event of the national significance as it surely guarantees the eternal future of the nation.
> 
> The DPRK is a genuine peace-loving state which has made all efforts to protect peace on the Korean Peninsula and security in the region from the U.S. vicious nuclear war scenario.
> 
> The DPRK, a responsible nuclear weapons state, will neither be the first to use nuclear weapons nor transfer relevant means and technology under any circumstances as already declared as long as the hostile forces for aggression do not encroach upon its sovereignty.
> 
> There can neither be suspended nuclear development nor nuclear dismantlement on the part of the DPRK unless the U.S. has rolled back its vicious hostile policy toward the former.
> 
> The army and people of the DPRK will steadily escalate its nuclear deterrence of justice both in quality and quantity to reliably guarantee the future of the revolutionary cause of Juche for all ages.
> 
> Juche Korea will be prosperous forever as it holds fast to the great WPK's line of simultaneously pushing forward the two fronts.
> 
> -0-​


More PRK statements (including what Ho Chun Gum, chairwoman of the management board of the Kumdae Cooperative Farm in Rangnang District, Pyongyang, had to say about the test) attached.


----------



## tomahawk6

An alarming development if true.No doubt there was a recent nuclear test whether it was actually an H bomb or not will require more study.An H bomb can be fitted onto an ICBM and is much more powerful than an atomic bomb.

http://www.armytimes.com/story/military/2016/01/06/after-north-koreas-nuke-test-28000-us-troops-wait-see-what-happens-next/78363184/


----------



## The Bread Guy

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> An alarming development if true.No doubt there was a recent nuclear test whether it was actually an H bomb or not will require more study ...


Good points to keep in mind, indeed - this from the _NY Times_:


> The White House said Wednesday that initial data from its monitoring stations in Asia were “not consistent” with North Korea’s claim that the nuclear test it carried out earlier in the day was its first test of a hydrogen bomb, a far more powerful weapon than the country had previously built.
> 
> The statement by Josh Earnest, the White House press secretary, came as the United Nations Security Council condemned the test after a two-hour closed-door meeting, and after China, Britain, France, Japan and other powers indicated that they would consider action against the country.
> 
> The United States did not indicate the basis for its skepticism. But the seismic wave left by the explosion was smaller than what most experts would expect from the detonation of a true thermonuclear weapon. Some experts said it was possible that the North had increased the yield of a more traditional device using tritium, a technique that has often been used in the 70-year history of nuclear weapons ...


----------



## CougarKing

The US response is reported below, while another article gauges how the Chinese may respond:


Aviationist



> *U.S. WC-135 aircraft will sniff for radiation near North Korea to determine what today’s explosion was*
> Jan 07 2016 - 0 Comments
> By David Cenciotti
> The WC-135 is going to search for fallout from the alleged North Korean test.
> 
> A U.S. Air Force WC-135 will soon be in action near the Korean peninsula, searching for fallout from the alleged North Korea’s nuclear test.
> 
> According to the Washington Post, a U.S. defense official confirmed that the WC-135 Constant Phoenix atmospheric collections aircraft will be used to determine whether the provocative nuclear detonation claimed by Pyongyang was really a hydrogen blast.
> 
> As we reported on a previous article on this aircraft, the WC-135 is a derivative of the Boeing C-135 transport and support plane. Two of these aircraft are in service today out of the ten examples operated since 1963. The aircraft are flown by flight crews from the 45th Reconnaissance Squadron from Offutt Air Force Base while mission crews are staffed by Detachment 1 from the Air Force Technical Applications Center.
> 
> The WC-135, known as the “sniffer” or “weather bird” by its crews, can carry up to 33 personnel. However, crew compliments are kept to a minimum during mission flights in order to lessen levels of radioactive exposure.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)



Diplomat



> *How Will China Respond to North Korea's Nuclear Test?
> 
> Looking back at history to predict how Xi Jinping will respond to Pyongyang’s latest provocation.*
> shannon-tiezzi
> By Shannon Tiezzi
> January 07, 2016
> 
> 
> North Korea (also known as the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, or DPRK) claims to have conducted a successful thermonuclear test on Wednesday morning. While experts are already contesting the claim that a thermonuclear device was detonated, it does appear that North Korea tested a nuclear device of some kind, with a yield similar to the previous test in February 2013. Now the question is how the international community will respond – and that response will largely be dictated by the way China, North Korea’s traditional partner and a veto-wielding permanent member of the UN Security Council, chooses to react.
> 
> *The official position from China’s Foreign Ministry was crystal clear – China “firmly opposes” the nuclear test, spokesperson Hua Chunying *said in a routing press conference. “China is steadfast in its position that the Korean Peninsula should be denuclearized and nuclear proliferation should be prevented to maintain peace and stability in Northeast Asia… We strongly urge the DPRK to honor its commitment to denuclearization, and to cease any action that may deteriorate the situation,” Hua continued.
> 
> Hua also emphasized that China had not known about the test in advance. She said “experts” were conducting analysis to verify whether or not the device was a hydrogen bomb, as North Korea claimed.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## Journeyman

S.M.A. said:
			
		

> *How Will China Respond to North Korea's Nuclear Test?*


More importantly.....the UN:  "...the UN Security Council said it would work immediately on significant new measures against North Korea"

 You know that Kim Jong-un is cringing, dreading the harsh tones of that sharply-worded diplomatic note to drop.

               anic:


----------



## Kat Stevens

Perhaps a strongly worded letter to The Times is in order.


----------



## dapaterson

Or threatening to send in a half-decent barber.  That would terrify him...


----------



## CougarKing

The political implications of the North Korean test being felt in South Korea and Japan:

Diplomat



> *South Korea to Restart Anti-North Propaganda Broadcasts in Response to Nuclear Test
> 
> Last summer, North Korea threatened military action unless the broadcasts were stopped.*
> shannon-tiezzi
> By Shannon Tiezzi
> January 07, 2016
> 
> 
> In response to the North Korean nuclear test on Wednesday, South Korea will resume anti-North propaganda broadcasts along the demilitarized zone that separates the two.
> 
> Cho Tae-yong, the deputy chief of national security at the Blue House (South Korea’s presidential office), said the broadcasts would begin at noon on Friday – Kim Jung-un’s birthday – according to Yonhap.
> 
> In August 2015, South Korea resumed the propaganda broadcasts for the first time since 2004. The decision came after an incident in which two South Korean soldiers were injured by landmines. South Korea’s loudspeakers blared not only anti-North Korean rhetoric, but weather reports, global news, and K-pop music. North Korea responded by launching artillery shells at the loudspeakers and announcing a “quasi-state of war.”
> 
> (...SNIPPED)



Diplomat



> *North Korea's Nuclear Test: The Fallout for Japan
> 
> The latest nuclear test underscores the challenges of Japan’s relationship with North Korea.*
> YTatsumi_HighRes_1274
> By Yuki Tatsumi
> January 07, 2016
> 
> 
> On January 6, North Korea announced that it had conducted its fourth nuclear test. Its state media broadcast a statement signed by Kim Jong-un that celebrated “opening the year with exciting noise of the first hydrogen bomb.”
> 
> If confirmed, this means a great leap forward for North Korea’s nuclear program. With its ongoing missile programs, it would pose a grave direct threat not only to its neighbors in East Asia but also vis-à-vis the United States. Even if the test turns out to be a regular nuclear test, it still is a clear violation of numerous UN Security Council Resolutions that have been adopted against North Korea, including UNSRES 2049 adopted on March 7, 2013 in response to North Korea’s third nuclear test on February 12, 2013.
> 
> What made North Korea decide to carry out a nuclear test? Some say Pyongyang was frustrated that it is increasingly isolated in Northeast Asia, particularly with the improving relationships between Japan and China as well as Japan and South Korea. Others point to the upcoming Korean Workers Party convention in May and explain yesterday’s test as a part of an overall attempt by Kim Jong-un to assert his position as the supreme leader of the hermit kingdom.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## jollyjacktar

Bruce McKinnon Cartoon 8 Jan 16

Another excellent cartoon from the Chronicle Herald.


----------



## CougarKing

Kim Jong Un can't both have his cake and eat it:

Diplomat



> *North Korea’s H-Bomb Test: The (Impossible) Economic Context
> 
> Kim Jong-un wants to both build a hydrogen bomb and develop North Korea’s economy. It won’t work.*
> By Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein
> January 08, 2016
> 
> Who decides what in Pyongyang? Do fierce political battles rage between hardliners and reformers, where the former group struggles to replace nuclear belligerence with liberal market economics and trade? Whenever a purge or suspicious death occurs in Pyongyang, speculations come alive about potential policy changes by the regime.
> 
> It is a fool’s errand to make guesses about how North Korea’s claimed (but unlikely) hydrogen bomb test fits into the speculative dichotomy of modernizers versus conservatives. After all, such simple divisions are rare in the political life of any country. But looking at the test in the context of the past year makes it clear that Pyongyang is pursuing a messy mix of policies that are mutually exclusive.
> 
> Even as the regime attempts to draw foreign investment, diversify its investor base to include other countries than China, and take its industrial zones from plans to reality, it is also actively working against economic progress through nuclear tests and diplomatic belligerence. Either the left hand doesn’t know what the right hand is doing, or the two hands don’t care much about their success.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## CougarKing

A manipulated video? Should we be surprised?

Diplomat



> *How Far Along Are North Korea's Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missiles?
> 
> North Korea’s latest submarine-launched ballistic missile video appears unconvincing.*
> 
> By Ankit Panda
> January 11, 2016
> 
> 
> After grabbing headlines the world over on January 6 for its (dubious) claim of having successfully tested a hydrogen bomb, North Korea released what it claimed was video of successful submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) test on Friday. The test was supposedly carried out in late-December 2015. (You can view the full video here.)
> 
> Immediately after the video was released, *the South Korean military came out and said that the video appeared to have been manipulated*. North Korea’s SLBM ejection tests have had trouble in the past. Last year’s test of the KN-11/Bukkeukseong-1 (“Polaris-1”) SLBM was shown to have taken place from an underwater barge, undercutting North Korea’s claim of a successful ejection from its Sinpo-class submarine. In late November, Pyongyang attempted a submarine ejection in earnest that was reported to have failed.
> 
> Though the South Korean military is yet to release any sort of definitive evidence that the video was altered, the community of open-source intelligence analysts out there has already gotten hard to work in attempting to prove that the video is less-than-genuine. Notably, the footage released this week does not show any close-ups of the missile unlike the footage from last May, clearly showing the distinctive-looking KN-11 (the missile bears a strong resemblance to  the Soviet Union’s R-27/SS-N-6 Serb SLBMs).
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## Oldgateboatdriver

Personally, I am surprised North Korea even has subs that can submerge, let alone shoot anything.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Oldgateboatdriver said:
			
		

> Personally, I am surprised North Korea even has subs that can submerge, let alone shoot anything.


I'm sure _anyone_ can get a sub to sink - it's getting everyone back _up,_ alive ready to continue working that's the hard part, no?   >


----------



## a_majoor

More on playing the China card in the Korean game. The Chinese use the DPRK to keep Western and Western aligned powers off balance, so returning the favour by setting conditions that favour Korean reunification (AKA regime change) might do a little "unsettling" for our side:

http://nypost.com/2016/01/13/the-only-real-solution-to-the-endless-north-korea-crisis/



> *The only real solution to the endless North Korea crisis*
> By Benny Avni January 13, 2016 | 8:20pm
> The only real solution to the endless North Korea crisis
> 
> Really? Is there nothing we can do about North Korea?
> 
> Pyongyang’s Kim Jong Un celebrated his 33rd birthday with a bang, telling the world he’d tested a hydrogen bomb that can “wipe out the whole territory of the United States all at once.”
> 
> No, he can’t. Not yet. Experts think he didn’t even really detonate a thermo-nuclear bomb. Nah. It was merely the North’s fourth nuclear test.
> 
> The White House shrugs: Let the Norks be Norks. Kim went unmentioned in President Obama’s State of the Union address.
> 
> But ignoring a problem won’t make it go away. Living at Krazy Kim’s mercy is no longer an option. The megalomanic and mercurial tyrant’s missiles already can hit parts of the United States. Our Asian allies are threatened by his nukes and missiles.
> 
> And closing our eyes isn’t just a bad policy in itself. It also sends all the wrong signals to others who wish us ill.
> 
> So let’s take a cue from Michael Corleone: Where does it say that you can’t kill a regime?
> 
> After all, we’re talking about a crooked gang that’s mixed up in the rackets, proliferates arms, behaves like a neighborhood bully and starves its own people to death. We’re talking about a regime that never heard of the Cold War’s end, and that still reads George Orwell’s “1984” as a how-to book.
> 
> True, regime change is no longer in vogue. Yet it’s been America’s official policy for decades, and still is — except we call it Korean reunification. Now we must get serious about it.
> 
> A year ago, South Korea’s President Park Geun-hye said her free country must launch “meticulous preparations” toward reuniting the Koreas.
> 
> But Korean reunification is seen as a bit like awaiting the Messiah: We believe, but beyond prayers, there’s little we can do to hasten his coming. Thus, rather than vowing to get rid of the Kim regime, we call for “peaceful and gradual” unification, and then wait patiently.
> 
> Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush (in his second term) even tried to appease the North by awarding incentives, including sanctions removal, in return for promises. Even Obama — always eager to humor America’s enemies — saw the futility of that policy. So instead, he just ignored the problem altogether.
> 
> One reason: China has long opposed the collapse of a fellow Communist regime.
> 
> Beijing fears a flood of Korean refugees that’d tax its resources, and dreads the prospect of a powerful pro-Western unified Korea on its border. So it has propped the Kims up and assured their survival.
> 
> But two years ago, Kim the Third executed Jang Sung-taek, his uncle, a trusted adviser to his father — and, crucially, Beijing’s man in Pyongyang. Since then, the Chinese have become increasingly impatient with Kim’s irrationality, and he, largely, stopped listening to them.
> 
> As trouble brews in the Beijing-Pyongyang paradise, and as the North menace grows, some in Washington believe it’s time to strike. On Tuesday, the House of Representatives passed a bipartisan sanctions bill that, according to its initial sponsor, House Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Ed Royce (R-Calif.), will “help cut off Kim Jong Un’s access to the cash he needs to fund his army, his weapons and the continued repression of the North Korean people.”
> 
> Royce’s plan to end carrots and return to sticks is a good start. The Senate is expected to soon pass its own sanctions package. Royce has consulted with the White House, but it isn’t clear whether Obama will play along or revert to his “strategic patience” with Kim.
> 
> Serious sanctions can force China to choose: Do business with America or prop up North Korea. Not both.
> 
> The Bush and Obama administrations imposed such sanctions on Iran. But Obama saw them as mere chips to be bargained away. The bargaining-chip approach, he knows, has already failed with North Korea.
> 
> A return to painful sanctions is only a steppingstone toward regime change — er, Korean reunification. Obama won’t say so — but the presidential candidates can, and should. That strategic goal, they can say, is doable, and closer than you think.
> 
> Because without it, we’re held hostage to the world’s worst — and arguably most unpredictable and therefore dangerous — regime.


----------



## Edward Campbell

OK, I agree: "ignoring a problem won’t make it go away," but why is "living at Krazy Kim’s mercy is no longer an option?" And who says we're "living at his mercy?"

The DPRK is an irritant, not much more ... sure it's a potentially dangerous irritant, but so are a lot of other things with which we live, albeit not always happily.

I'll repeat: it is my _belief_ that the Chinese have proposed a way out. If the US withdraws, militarily, from South Korea then _I think_ the DPRK's leadership will disappear and the Korean peninsula will be, quickly, reunited under South Korean leadership. 

The Chinese employ the DPRK as an irritant because they want the US off the Asian mainland. Take away the US military formations and units and the need for (undesirable in China's eyes) DPRK regime vanishes.


----------



## CougarKing

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> The Chinese employ the DPRK as an irritant because they want the US off the Asian mainland.



But I'm sure you're aware that the CCP Politburo Standing Committee in Beijing have their limits when it comes to tolerating Pyongyang's saber-rattling and brinksmanship?

Like I said before, common ideology means nothing. If it fits their interest, China is not above using a military solution to quash their former proteges if Kim threatens the very regional stability the Chinese economy depends on.

Look at the precedent of the Chinese invasion of Vietnam in 1979. 

Kim and the ideologues who follow him in Pyongyang might see the Chinese as revisionists who embraced both market reforms and opened up to the west.


----------



## a_majoor

I'm pretty sure the point of the article wasn't so much that the DPRK is an irritant and loose canon (which is stipulated anyway) but rather using sanctions as a way to turn the tables on the Chinese. Since they are not very keen on the idea of millions of Korean refugees flooding into China, or the repercussions for economic and political stability if the DPRK collapses (many of the points Robert Kaplan made in his article When North Korea Falls are still valid today).

While there are lots of reasons to think this is a risky COA, the status quo is not particularly appealing, and changing the game table might have better long term results for the entire region (including China).


----------



## Edward Campbell

S.M.A. said:
			
		

> But I'm sure you're aware that the CCP Politburo Standing Committee in Beijing have their limits when it comes to tolerating Pyongyang's saber-rattling and brinksmanship?
> 
> Like I said before, common ideology means nothing. If it fits their interest, China is not above using a military solution to quash their former proteges if Kim threatens_ the very regional stability the Chinese economy depends o_n.
> 
> Look at the precedent of the Chinese invasion of Vietnam in 1979.
> 
> Kim and the ideologues who follow him in Pyongyang might see the Chinese as revisionists who embraced both market reforms and opened up to the west.




That's it: South Korea, a booming, bustling economy that invests heavily in China is far, far more important than Kim and the DPRK ... except as a lever to wedge the Americans off the Asian mainland.


----------



## CougarKing

The fact that there are North Korean defectors at all who survive all obstacles to make it to South Korea is in itself amazing... this includes the fact that Chinese authorities aren't very sympathetic to North Koreans found fleeing through their territory. I remember seeing news footage some years ago of Chinese policemen who manhandled some North Korean refugees trying to get into a nearby South Korean consulate.

Diplomat



> *North Korean Defectors to South Hit 13-Year Low
> 
> The number of North Korean defectors reaching the South has declined severely since Kim Jong-un took power.*
> 
> By John Power
> January 15, 2016
> 
> The number of North Korean defectors who reached South Korea last year was the lowest in 13 years, data showed, continuing the sharp decline that has followed Kim Jong-un’s rise to power in Pyongyang.
> 
> *According to figures released by the South’s Ministry of Unification earlier this month, 1,277 North Koreans settled in South Korea in 2015, a decline of 120 from the year before. The data shows that fewer North Korean escapees reached the South than in any year since 2002, when 1,142 resettled south of the 38th parallel that divides the Koreas.*
> 
> The number reaching South Korea had been on an upward trend before Kim Jong-un assumed control of North Korea in December 2011, reaching a high of 2,914 in 2009. In 2012, Kim’s first full year in power, that number plummeted: just 1,502 North Koreans resettled in the South compared to 2,706 in 2011. Since then, the figures have remained far below pre-2012 levels; last year’s figure represents an almost 53 percent drop from 2011.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## CougarKing

What hostile act? Wearing a haircut not approved by their "Dear Leader" himself?  :

BBC



> *North Korea arrests US student for 'hostile act'*
> 
> 22 January 2016
> From the section Asia
> 
> North Korea says it has arrested a US student accused of committing a "hostile act" against the state.
> 
> State news agency KCNA identified him as University of Virginia student Otto Frederick Warmbier.
> 
> He had entered North Korea as a tourist with the intention "to destroy the country's unity", said KCNA, which added that the US government had "tolerated and manipulated" him.
> 
> It did not give further details, but said he was now under investigation.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## CougarKing

A test of Japan's BMD capabilities?

International Business Times



> *Japan orders military to prepare to destroy North Korea missile*
> by AFP
> January 30, 2016
> 
> Tokyo, Japan – Japan has ordered its military to be ready to destroy any missile fired by North Korea that threatens the country, local media reported Friday, as concerns mount that Pyongyang is preparing a rocket launch.
> 
> Defense Minister Gen Nakatani issued the order, the Nikkei daily and Kyodo News reported, after reports of suspicious activity at Pyongyang’s main satellite complex fuelled speculation a launch could come as early as next week.
> 
> A Japanese defense ministry spokeswoman declined to confirm the report when contacted by AFP, saying that ‘’would reveal our strategy.’’
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## CougarKing

Perhaps Xi's anti-corruption drive in China actually improved their corruption ranking compared to North Korea:

Diplomat



> *Report: North Korea Has World's Worst Corruption
> 
> North Korea tied for the worst score in Transparency International’s report, but South Korea has its issues as well.*
> 
> By John Power
> January 29, 2016
> 
> 
> North Korea was perceived to have the most corrupt public service last year along with Somalia, while neighboring South Korea was ranked 37th least corrupt, a report by Transparency International showed.
> 
> *North Korea scored an abysmal 8 points out of 100, the same as 2014, while South Korea scored 56, a one-point improvement from the year before.*
> 
> Despite the negligible rise in its score, South Korea rose six places on the list of 168 countries and territories that were assessed.
> 
> While North Korea’s ranking was predictable given its opaque and repressive political system, South Korea also ranked poorly relative to its democratic peers. Its rank placed it 27th among the 34 nations of the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development, and behind Asian peers Singapore, Japan, Taiwan, and Hong Kong.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## CougarKing

More tensions as the launch date approaches:

Defense News



> *Anger, Sanctions Threats Greet North Korea Rocket Launch Plans*
> Agence France-Presse 9:58 p.m. EST February 2, 2016
> 
> SEOUL, South Korea — South Korea and Japan on Wednesday echoed US warnings that North Korea would pay a heavy price if it pushes ahead with a planned rocket launch just weeks after conducting its fourth nuclear test.
> 
> Urging Pyongyang to drop its plans for a launch as early as next week, the government in Seoul said the move would be a serious breach of UN resolutions and a “direct challenge” to the international community.
> 
> Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe condemned what he called a “serious provocation” and clear violation of Pyongyang’s international obligations.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## tomahawk6

The North Korean launch appears to have been a success putting a payload into orbit.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2016/02/06/pentagon-confirms-north-korean-missile-launch-launch-system-appears-to-have-entered-space/


----------



## jollyjacktar

I thought Japan was saying that they would shoot down any NK missle launch.


----------



## CougarKing

The satellite launch wasn't the real reason why this was success for Pyongyang, since it's more because the rocket used to launch the satellite showed that their ballistic missile technology now has the range to hit the continental US:

And in other news, this launch has made South Korea more eager to discuss a BMD/THAAD system with the US and Japan.

BBC



> *North Korea fires long-range rocket despite warnings*
> 
> 7 hours ago
> From the section Asia
> 
> John Sudworth: North Korea's thinking behind launch might be to get increased leverage over US and China
> *
> North Korea has fired a long-range rocket, which critics say is a test of banned missile technology.*
> 
> A state TV announcer said that North Korea had successfully placed a satellite in orbit.
> 
> The launch was condemned by Japan, South Korea and the US, who have requested an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council later on Sunday.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)
> 
> *Senior defence official Ryu Je-Seung said if the THAAD missile system - considered one of the most advanced in the world - were deployed it would be only to counter the threat from the North.*
> 
> 'Fascinating vapour'
> 
> In a statement, *the North Korean National Aerospace Development Administration said earth observation satellite Kwangmyongsong-4 had entered orbit about 10 minutes after lift-off from the Sohae space centre in North Phyongan province.*
> 
> Announcing the launch on state TV, a newsreader said it had been ordered by North Korea's leader Kim Jong-un and said the country planned to launch more satellites in the future.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## CougarKing

More brinksmanship from the North Korean Navy:

Reuters



> World | Sun Feb 7, 2016 8:40pm EST
> Related: World
> *North Korean patrol boat crosses to South, retreats after warning shots*
> SEOUL
> 
> A North Korean patrol boat crossed into South Korean waters early on Monday and retreated after the South Korean navy fired warning shots, a South Korean military official said.
> 
> The incursion came amid heightened tensions on the Korean peninsula, a day after North Korea fired a long-range rocket carrying a satellite into space, a launch that South Korea and other countries consider to be a missile test in disguise.
> 
> The patrol boat crossed the Northern Limit Line, which North Korea does not recognize, in the Yellow Sea to the west of the peninsula, at 6:55 a.m. (21:55 GMT) near Socheongdo island, the official said.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## tomahawk6

The US will equip the ROK with THAAD.Maybe Japan will also receive THAAD batteries ?

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/north-korea-now-reportedly-americas-173724466.html


----------



## CougarKing

The cycle of brinksmanship and nuclear blackmail continues:

Hill Times



> *US spy chief: North Korea restarted plutonium reactor*
> 
> By Julian Hattem - 02/09/16 10:34 AM EST
> 
> North Korea has restarted its plutonium nuclear reactor and could be recovering spent fuel in coming weeks, the United States's spy chief said on Tuesday.
> 
> “We assess that North Korea has followed through on its announcement by expanding its Yongbyon enrichment facility and restarting the plutonium production reactor,” Director of National Intelligence James Clapper said in a statement prepared ahead of his appearance at two hearings on Capitol Hill.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## The Bread Guy

Internally, meanwhile ...


> The chief of North Korea's military was executed this month on corruption and other charges, sources familiar with North Korean affairs said Wednesday.
> 
> Army Gen. Ri Yong-gil, chief of the General Staff of the Korean People's Army, also faced charges of pursuing personal gains, the sources said.
> 
> According to one source, Ri was executed last week around the time North Korean leader Kim Jong-un presided over a joint meeting of the North's ruling Workers' Party and the military ...


:tsktsk:


----------



## tomahawk6

Round after round of executing top officials cant go on.Stalin killed alot of his comrades until one day the inner circle decided that it was time for Stalin to go.I dont think young Kim will be able to stay in power.IF the PRC decides to back a replacement then he will be history.


----------



## jollyjacktar

I agree, one day there'll be a general revolt.


----------



## cavalryman

jollyjacktar said:
			
		

> I agree, one day there'll be a general revolt.


By revolting generals, no doubt


----------



## CougarKing

More on the North Korean ICBM threat:

International Business Times



> *North Korea Develops New Unit To Deploy KN-08 Intercontinental Ballistic Missile: Report*
> By Sneha Shankar @SnehaShankar30 On 02/14/16 AT 2:15 AM
> 
> North Korea has created a new unit that can deploy a road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), sources told South Korea's Yonhap news agency on Sunday. The move comes as Pyongayang’s recent nuclear test and a satellite launch are being criticized by the international community.
> 
> The unit "*KN-08 Brigade,*" which is named after the missile of the same name, is a part of the Strategic Force that supervises all the missiles in North Korea. Sources also told Yonhap that the move shows that North Korea may soon be able to field the road-mobile ICBM. The KN-08 was first revealed in April 2012 during the military parade to celebrate the 100th birthday of Kim Il-sung, North Korea’s founder and the father of the current North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## CougarKing

Raptors in action over the Korean peninsula again:

Associated Press



> *US stealth jets fly over S. Korea amid N. Korea standoff*
> [The Canadian Press]
> Lee Jin-Man, The Associated Press
> 
> February 16, 2016
> 
> OSAN AIR BASE, South Korea - Four U.S. F-22 stealth fighters flew low over South Korea on Wednesday in a clear show of force against North Korea, a day after South Korea's president warned of the North's collapse amid a festering standoff over its nuclear and missile ambitions.
> 
> The high-tech planes capable of sneaking past radar undetected were seen by an Associated Press photographer before they landed at Osan Air Base near Seoul. They were escorted by other U.S. and South Korean fighter jets.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## CougarKing

North Korea's first airshow and beer festival...  With lower quality Soju than the one you can find in Seoul of course.  ;D

Popular Mechanics



> *North Korea Is Hosting Its First Air Show*
> 
> ​Airplanes, waterfalls, tae kwon do, and a beer festival await you​ in paranoid paradise.
> 
> By Kyle Mizokami
> Feb 18, 2016
> 2.4k
> 
> If you've ever wanted to attend an air show in the world's most repressive and paranoid country, now's your chance: North Korea has scheduled its very first such event. The Wonsan Air Festival will feature North Korean military and civil aircraft of all types. It will happen this September.
> 
> The secretive North Korean regime traditionally keeps its military away from the prying eyes of the world, so it's more than a little unusual that the country would invite outsiders to see its air force. But paranoia or no paranoia, those space rockets and nuclear weapons don't grow on trees, and the country needs ways to extract hard currency from the outside world.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## tomahawk6

Here is an article that outlines North Korea's military capability.They have an obsolete force but has the numbers to gain headway in an invasion of the ROK.With limited fuel I suspect their intial goal would be to capture POL facilities intact.Just like the German offensive during the Battle of the Bulge.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-maps-outline-north-koreas-174400457.html


----------



## CougarKing

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> The US will equip the ROK with THAAD.Maybe Japan will also receive THAAD batteries ?
> 
> http://finance.yahoo.com/news/north-korea-now-reportedly-americas-173724466.html



And speaking of THAAD, even though its installation will complicate Beijing-Seoul ties as suggested below, South Korea will still be much more important to Beijing than North Korea ever will be, if I can recall correctly from what ERC said earlier.


Defense News



> *Envoy: US Missile System In South Korea Would Hurt Seoul-Beijing Ties*
> Agence France-Presse 7:51 p.m. EST February 23, 2016
> 
> SEOUL, South Korea — China’s ambassador to South Korea warned Tuesday that the planned deployment of a US missile defense system in the country could damage Beijing-Seoul ties, possibly irreparably.
> 
> Once damaged, it would be “hard” to normalize relations between the two former Cold War enemies, Ambassador Qiu Guohong said, according to a spokesman for South Korea’s main opposition Minju party.
> 
> Qiu made the remarks when he met Minju party head Kim Jong-In at parliament. A spokesman for the Chinese embassy said the Minju party’s briefing on the meeting to journalists was accurate.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)



Defense News



> *South Korea Eyes THAAD Despite China’s Fear*
> By Jung Sung-ki, Defense News 9:52 a.m. EST February 14, 2016
> 
> SEOUL, South Korea — South Korea is pushing for deployment on its soil of a US high-altitude air defense system as North Korean missile threats expand.
> 
> The move has stoked fears in China, which believes deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system could help Washington to expand its military power in the region.
> 
> South Korea is prioritizing THAAD deployment with US Forces Korea (USFK) rather than purchasing the weapon system.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## CougarKing

Poor student...being used by Pyongyang as a pawn in front of a kangaroo court...

Canadian Press



> *North Korea puts tearful detained American before cameras*
> 
> Eric Talmadge And Jon Chol Jin, The Associated Press
> The Canadian Press
> February 29, 2016
> 
> PYONGYANG, North Korea - North Korea presented a detained American student before the media on Monday in Pyongyang, where he tearfully apologized for attempting to steal a political banner — at the behest, he said, of a member of a church back home who wanted it as a "trophy" — from a staff-only section of the hotel where he had been staying.
> 
> North Korea announced in late January it had arrested Otto Warmbier, a 21-year-old University of Virginia undergraduate student. It said that after entering the country as a tourist he committed an anti-state crime with "the tacit connivance of the U.S. government and under its manipulation."
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## CougarKing

Kim Jong Un throws his latest tantrum:



> *N. Korea fires short-range missiles after UN sanctions*
> by Agence France-Presse
> March 3, 2016
> 
> North Korea fired short range missiles into the sea off its eastern coast on Thursday, South Korea’s defence ministry said, hours after the UN Security Council imposed tough new sanctions on Pyongyang.
> 
> “The North fired several short-range missiles into the East Sea (Sea of Japan) at 10:00am (0100 GMT),” ministry spokesman Moon Sang-Gyun told reporters.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## CougarKing

All North Korean vessels in foreign ports should have been seized long ago because of the crazy regime they belong to:

Guardian



> *Philippines impounds North Korean boat under new UN sanctions*
> 
> The Philippines has impounded a North Korean vessel under tough new United Nations sanctions introduced in response to Pyongyang’s recent nuclear and ballistic missile tests.
> 
> The 6,830-tonne cargo ship Jin Teng will not be allowed to leave Subic port, north-east of the capital Manila, where it had been docked for three days and its crew will be deported, presidential spokesman Manolo Quezon said on state-run radio station Radyo ng Bayan on Saturday.
> 
> (....EDITED)
> 
> “The world is concerned over North Korea’s nuclear weapons program and as a member of the UN, the Philippines has to do its part to enforce the sanctions,” Quezon said.


----------



## CougarKing

SRBMs fired:

BBC



> *North Korea 'fires short-range missiles'*
> 
> 10 March 2016
> North Korea has fired two short-range ballistic missiles into the sea, South Korea's military has said.
> 
> It said the missiles, launched off the east coast, flew some 500km (310 miles) and fell into the water.
> 
> Shortly after the launch, Pyongyang announced it "nullifies" all inter-Korean cooperative projects and will liquidate South Korean assets in the country.
> 
> Most South Korean assets in the North are in the Kaesong industrial zone.
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## CougarKing

Maybe Kim Jong Un rode the sub, weighing it down the sub so it could never surface again...  ;D

CNN



> *US says North Korean sub missing*
> Washington (CNN)The North Korean regime lost contact with one of its submarines earlier this week, three U.S. officials familiar with the latest information told CNN.
> 
> The U.S. military had been observing the submarine operate off North Korea's east coast when the vessel stopped, and U.S. spy satellites, aircraft and ships have been secretly watching for days as the North Korean navy searched for the missing sub.
> 
> The U.S. is unsure if the missing vessel is adrift under the sea or whether it has sunk, the officials said, but believes it suffered some type of failure during an exercise.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## CougarKing

Cue theme song for the neverending launches: The Neverending story!   :

Canadian Press



> *Seoul: North Korea fires ballistic missile into sea*
> [The Canadian Press]
> Hyung-Jin Kim And Kim Tong-Hyung, The Associated Press
> 
> March 17, 2016
> 
> SEOUL, South Korea - North Korea defied U.N. resolutions by firing a medium-range ballistic missile into the sea on Friday, Seoul and Washington officials said, days after its leader Kim Jong Un ordered weapons tests linked to its pursuit of a long-range nuclear missile capable of reaching the U.S. mainland.
> 
> South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff said in a statement that the missile fired from a site north of Pyongyang flew about 800 kilometres (500 miles) before crashing off the North's east coast.
> 
> *The Joint Chiefs of Staff said it wasn't known what type of missile was fired, but a South Korean defence official, requesting anonymity citing department rules, said it is the first medium-range missile launched by the North since April 2014 when it fired two.*
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## Edward Campbell

A look, from the ISS, at North Korea by night:







See the video here at the 30 second point.


----------



## jollyjacktar

They really should pay their power bills.


----------



## Journeyman

If this was a Politics thread, I would expect comments on how effective and environmentally-enlightened their energy conservation efforts were.

       :stirpot:


----------



## jollyjacktar

No, wait.  How could I have missed it.  They're celebrating Earth Day because the Dear Leader Jr. is such a humanitarian and Liberal minded guy.  

 ;D   Better?


----------



## Oldgateboatdriver

Why do you guys always try to come up with convoluted answers ???

Don't you know that NK is the world's largest Dark Sky Preserve ?


----------



## CougarKing

Part of North Korea's own footprint in Africa:

Defense News



> *Namibia confirms North Korean-built arms and ammunition factory*
> Oscar Nkala, Defense News 9:10 a.m. EDT March 17, 2016
> 
> GABORONE, Botswana — The Namibian government has confirmed that North Korea built an arms and ammunition factory in the African country and is in the process of executing other contracts for the construction of the country's first military academy, military barracks and a new headquarters for the Ministry of Defense (MoD).
> 
> The confirmation came a week after the government refuted the recent United Nations Panel of Experts (PoE), which found that Pyongyang has continuously violated UN Security Council sanctions imposed to protest its nuclear weapons program by providing military weapons, training and embarking on military-related construction projects in African countries, including Uganda and Namibia.
> 
> This week, Namibian Deputy Prime Minister Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah confirmed that the North Korean state-owned firm Mansudae Overseas Projects, through its subsidiary Korea Mining Development Trading Corporation (KOMID), had indeed built a small arms and ammunition factory in the capital Windhoek.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## CougarKing

Again:

Associated Press



> *South Korea says North Korea fired short-range projectile*
> [The Canadian Press]
> Kim Tong-Hyung, The Associated Press
> 
> March 29, 2016
> 
> SEOUL, South Korea - North Korea fired a short-range projectile from an area near its eastern coast on Tuesday, South Korean officials said, in what appears to be another weapons test seen as a response to ongoing military drills between Washington and Seoul.
> 
> The projectile was fired near the North Korean port city of Wonsan and flew about 200 kilometres (125 miles) before crashing into land northeast of the launch site, South Korean military officials said.
> 
> It was unclear whether the projectile was a ballistic missile or an artillery shell, said a Joint Chiefs of Staff official who didn't want to be identified, citing office rules. It was too early to tell whether North Korea used a land target to test the accuracy and range of its weapons or experienced problems after planning a launch into the sea, said an official from Seoul's Defence Ministry, who also didn't want to be named because of department rules.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## tomahawk6

The day may come when the PRC washes its hands of their step child and come south to topple them.They could then allow reunification which would bring jobs and commerce north.The need for a US presence in the south would vanish as well.A win win for everyone except the Kim's.


----------



## jollyjacktar

There are those predictions for 2016 which state that Kim will fall this year with a coup and the two Koreas will become one once more.


----------



## Journeyman

jollyjacktar said:
			
		

> There are those predictions for 2016 which state that Kim will fall this year with a coup and the two Koreas will become one once more.


I knew a Navy Int O, focussed on Asia, who announced every week that North Korea was just about to collapse and/or start WW3. 

That was only about 25 years ago.    :boring:


----------



## tomahawk6

They cannot exist without China.The recent threats and missile launches isnt good for China.Making the problem go away is good for business.


----------



## Edward Campbell

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> They cannot exist without China.The recent threats and missile launches isnt good for China.Making the problem go away is good for business.




Repeating myself, again ...

The DPRK actually performs _*services*_ that are useful to China:

1. It keeps America and Japan off balance. No one really blames the Chinese very much: the DPRK has been firmly consigned to the "raving nut-bar" end of the political spectrum and no one expects China to go to war to change that; and

2. It actually helps Sino-Korean (South Korean) relations because China does intervene, fairly regularly, to denounce the DPRK's latest lunacy and this keep South Korea happier. China wants good relations with South Korea: it is a major source of investment and technology for China.  

From China's point of view the DPRK does more strategic good than harm, and it does so at low cost to China.


----------



## CougarKing

North Korea showcases another capability:

NBC



> *North Korea Jams GPS Signals to Fishing Boats: South*
> 
> by Stella Kim and Ian Wood
> 
> 
> North Korea is jamming GPS navigation systems near its border with South Korea, affecting hundreds of fishing boats but not causing any danger, officials in Seoul said Friday.
> 
> About 280 South Korean vessels experienced problems with their GPS navigation systems and many were forced to return to their ports Friday, defense officials said.
> 
> It came hours after North Korea fired a short-range missile into the sea, angry at ongoing U.S joint military drills with South Korea.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## tomahawk6

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> Repeating myself, again ...
> 
> The DPRK actually performs _*services*_ that are useful to China:
> 
> 1. It keeps America and Japan off balance. No one really blames the Chinese very much: the DPRK has been firmly consigned to the "raving nut-bar" end of the political spectrum and no one expects China to go to war to change that; and
> 
> 2. It actually helps Sino-Korean (South Korean) relations because China does intervene, fairly regularly, to denounce the DPRK's latest lunacy and this keep South Korea happier. China wants good relations with South Korea: it is a major source of investment and technology for China.
> 
> From China's point of view the DPRK does more strategic good than harm, and it does so at low cost to China.



While I respect your opinion ER,I do not agree.In the news this morning we have activity at the "mothballed" nuclear facility at Yongbyon and Chinese sanctions on its client North Korea.

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2016/04/05/suspicious-activity-at-north-korea-nuclear-site-us-think-tank-reports.html


https://www.yahoo.com/news/china-restricts-trade-north-korea-104337866.html?nhp=1


----------



## Edward Campbell

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> While I respect your opinion ER,I do not agree.In the news this morning we have activity at the "mothballed" nuclear facility at Yongbyon and Chinese sanctions on its client North Korea.
> 
> http://www.foxnews.com/world/2016/04/05/suspicious-activity-at-north-korea-nuclear-site-us-think-tank-reports.html
> 
> 
> https://www.yahoo.com/news/china-restricts-trade-north-korea-104337866.html?nhp=1




I really don't know what to think about the Fox News report, except that I do not believe that China wants or will tolerate a DPRK that can actually strike its neighbours. As to the sanctions: that is, I think, a good example of China intervening to denounce the DPEK and, thereby, keep ROK happier. Sanctions are better than words ... and China is sitting on a mountain of its own coal and steel.


----------



## tomahawk6

A North Korean Sinpo class sub tried to launch a missile but returned to port.The article speculated that there had been a malfunction.Kim seems determined to keep pressing his luck.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/04/report-korean-submarine-attempts-missile-test-launch-160407161600861.html


----------



## jollyjacktar

Read something that two would be assassins were picked up today trying to infiltrate from China on a mission to kill the fat bastard.


----------



## tomahawk6

Paranoia causes the dictator to imagine plots so there is round after round of arrests and executions.At some point one of the senior leaders may decide its him or me.Stalin is a perfect example.


----------



## jollyjacktar

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3529098/Two-hitmen-arrested-Chinese-border-tried-enter-North-Korea-bid-ASSASSINATE-dictator-Kim-Jong-un.html

You might be correct, I suppose paranoia is the norm in the North.


----------



## Oldgateboatdriver

I think paranoia is the norm for dictators, and for good reasons.

They have to live by the old saying: "It's not because I'm paranoid that they're not out to get me" since history teaches that 99% of dictators assassinations were carried out by people in their immediate entourage.  :nod:


----------



## Rifleman62

North Korea claims it has successfully conducted an engine test of a new intercontinental ballistic rocket it says will strengthen its ability to stage nuclear strikes on the United States, the Associated Press reported. 

More on this story: http://www.foxnews.com/world/2016/04/08/n-korea-says-it-successfully-tests-long-range-rocket-engine.html


----------



## CougarKing

More on the above, plus an article on the deteriorating relationship between North Korea and China:

Agence France Presse



> *North Korea says successfully tested ballistic missile engine*
> Giles Hewitt
> AFP
> April 8, 2016
> 
> Seoul (AFP) - North Korea said Saturday it had successfully tested an engine designed for an inter-continental ballistic missile (ICBM) that would "guarantee" an eventual nuclear strike on the US mainland.
> 
> It was the latest in a series of claims by Pyongyang of significant breakthroughs in both its nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programmes.
> 
> Outside experts have treated a number of the claims with scepticism, suggesting the North Korean leadership is attempting to talk up its achievements ahead of a showcase ruling party congress next month.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)



Business Insider



> *China may be feeling increasingly threatened by North Korea*
> [Business Insider UK]
> Business Insider UK
> April 7, 2016
> 
> 
> North Korea has become an increasing threat to China, according to an online commentary by the state-run People’s Daily overseas edition, which compared the Korean peninsula’s instability with Syria’s political turmoil.
> 
> An online opinion piece by the Daily yesterday said it was time for North Korea to rethink its nuclear weapon strategy as it might eventually jeopardize Pyong­yang’s stability. The piece was later deleted.
> 
> It also said ties between both countries had worsened, especially since* China’s Ministry of Commerce rolled out sanctions supporting the United Nation’s call to stop imports of coal, iron ore, gold, titanium and rare earths, and exports of a range of products, including jet fuel, to North Korea. These moves are likely to have an impact on Pyongyang within six months to a year.*
> 
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## Edward Campbell

S.M.A. said:
			
		

> More on the above, plus an article on the deteriorating relationship between North Korea and China:
> 
> Agence France Presse
> 
> Business Insider
> 
> 
> 
> 
> China may be feeling increasingly threatened by North Korea
> [Business Insider UK]
> Business Insider UK
> April 7, 2016
> 
> 
> North Korea has become an increasing threat to China, according to an online commentary by the state-run People’s Daily overseas edition, which compared the Korean peninsula’s instability with Syria’s political turmoil.
> 
> An online opinion piece by the Daily yesterday said it was time for North Korea to rethink its nuclear weapon strategy as it might eventually jeopardize Pyong­yang’s stability. The piece was later deleted.
> 
> It also said ties between both countries had worsened, especially since China’s Ministry of Commerce rolled out sanctions supporting the United Nation’s call to stop imports of coal, iron ore, gold, titanium and rare earths, and exports of a range of products, including jet fuel, to North Korea. These moves are likely to have an impact on Pyongyang within six months to a year.
> 
> 
> (...SNIPPED)
Click to expand...


The Chinese have often used the media, especially the overseas editions of Chinese language newspapers and the foreign language editions (including CCTV Channel 9) inside China, to allow for some debate on policy, to test ideas and to send messages to foreigners.

I wonder if this was not one of these:

   1. Part of a debate about how to deal with the DPRK;

   2. A test of the notion of swatting the "hermit kingdom;" or

   3. A thinly veiled warning to Mr Kim; or

   4. A bit of all three.


----------



## CougarKing

A potential gold mine for the ROK and western intelligence agencies? Or a plant sent full of false info?

680 News/Associated Press



> *Seoul: Senior North Korea military officer defects to South*
> 
> World
> 
> by Hyung-Jin Kim, The Associated Press
> 
> Posted Apr 11, 2016 8:46 am EDT
> 
> SEOUL, South Korea – A colonel from North Korea’s military spy agency fled to South Korea last year in an unusual case of a senior-level defection, Seoul officials said Monday.
> 
> The announcement came three days after Seoul revealed that 13 North Koreans working at the same restaurant in a foreign country had defected to the South. It was the largest group defection since Kim Jong Un, North Korea’s young leader, took power in late 2011. South Korean media reported that the restaurant is located in the eastern Chinese city of Ningbo.
> 
> Defections are a bitter source of contention between the rival Koreas, and Seoul doesn’t always make the high-profile cases public. Liberal lawmakers and media outlets have linked the recent defection announcements to what they say is an attempt by the conservative government of South Korean President Park Geun-hye to muster anti-Pyongyang votes ahead of this week’s parliamentary elections. The government denied this.
> 
> *The colonel who defected worked for the North Korean military’s General Reconnaissance Bureau before fleeing to South Korea, according to Seoul’s Defence and Unification ministries. Both ministries refused to provide further details, including a motive for the defection.
> *
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## Retired AF Guy

Re-produced under the usual caveats of the Copyright Act.  

Article stating the North Koreans are getting ready to fire off another firecracker very, very soon.



> Thursday, April 14, 2016
> 
> Ready for Launch
> 
> It remains one of the biggest mysteries of the North Korean ballistic missile program.  Since 2010, the DPRK has ocasionally exhibited an intermediate range, road-mobile missile, nicknamed the Musudan. Leaked intelligence reporting also suggests the system (sometimes referred to as the BM-25) has been exported to Iran, giving that country another potential delivery platform for conventional or nuclear warheads.
> 
> Still, our knowledge of the Musudan--and its operational status in North Korea and Iran--remains limited, for a simple reason.  The BM-25 has never been flight-tested by Pyongyang or Tehran.  Some analysts believe the missiles displayed by Pyongyang are actually decoys or mock-ups, suggesting that development of the operational system has lagged behind.
> 
> But that intel gap may soon be filled.  Pentagon sources tell CBS News and the Associated Press that North Korea is expected to conduct a test launch of the missile, possibly within the next 12 hours:
> 
> The missile in question is a Musadan, which is road mobile and has enough range to reach the Aleutians and Guam. It's never been tested before, so this is another step toward being able to threaten the United States with a nuclear weapon.
> 
> Friday, April 15 marks the birthday of Kim Il-sung, the "Great Leader" who rule North Korea from 1948 until his death in 1994.
> 
> Given Pyongyang's penchant for conducting military demonstrations on key historical dates, the Friday launch window is hardly surprising.  It's also clear that the Pentagon's prediction is based on more than Kim Il-Sung's birthdate.  Apparently, our intel systems have detected late-stage launch preparations which suggest the BM-25 will make its first flight in the next day or so.  Those preparations likely involve fueling of the missile; the Musudan (like many older systems) utilizes a liquid fuel; once the tanks have been filled, the missile must remain at the launch site because it lacks the structural strength to be safely transported to another location.
> 
> A fueled BM-25 can remain in that configuration for up to several weeks.  Expectations for a near-term launch may be based on other indications, such as the expected arrival of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (and other VIPs), or the establishment of airspace closure areas near the test site.  That location has not been disclosed by US officials but in the spring of 2013, two Musudans, mounted on their mobile launchers, were observed along the DPRK's east coast, raising speculation about a possible launch.  However, the missiles were eventually removed from that site, and the launch was never conducted.
> 
> The expected Musudan test comes amid escalating tensions on the Korean peninsula, and a recent string of provocations by Pyongyang.  North Korea conducted its fourth nuclear test earlier this year; launched a long-range missile from the Sohae Space Center in February, and fired an ICBM engine at the same complex last week.  A successful BM-25 launch would be evidence of continued progress in the DPRK's efforts to field missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons against targets in the Far East and the CONUS.  Most experts still believe North Korea lacks the ability to produce a "miniaturized" nuclear warhead that can fit on the Musudan, or longer-range missiles like the KN-08 and KN-14, believed capable of hitting targets in the western United States.
> 
> Mastering that technology is just a matter of time.  Technology sales to Iran help fund development efforts, and North Korea has long-established ties with Pakistan, which have helped it obtain (and advance) nuclear technology.  There are also questions about how much "help" Pyongyang may have received from Russia.  The BM-25 is based on the SS-N-6, an old, Soviet-era SLBM design which was designed to carry three nuclear warheads, and deployed on Yankee I class ballistic missile subs.  Moscow claims that nuclear technology was omitted from the blueprints and other technical data that was sold to Pyongyang.  Given the current level of technical competence in the DPRK, it wouldn't be difficult for North Korean scientists to develop a nuclear version of the Musudan.
> ***
> ADDENDUM:  Reporting from South Korean media, including the semi-official Yonhap news agency, indicates the BM-25 being prepped for launch was observed near the port city of Wonsan, on North Korea's east coast.



 Article Link 

It will be interesting to see what happens.


----------



## Retired AF Guy

From BBC News: Missile test failed. Back to the drawing boards.



> North Korea missile test fails, says South
> 15 April 2016
> 
> North Korea conducted a missile test off its east coast on Friday morning, but the launch appears to have failed, say US and South Korean officials.
> The rocket has not yet been identified but is suspected to have been a previously untested "Musudan" medium-range ballistic missile.
> The launch coincided with the birthday of North Korea's founding leader, Kim Il-sung. It also comes amid particularly high tension on the Korean peninsula.
> 
> South Korea's Yonhap national news agency quoted government sources as saying that the missile was a type of intermediate-range ballistic missile known as a Musudan, also called the BM-25.
> North Korean forces were seen recently moving two such missiles.
> The report said it would be the North's first Musudan test, and that it may have at least 50 more.
> The Musudan is named after the village in North Korea's northeast where a launch pad is sited.
> It has a range of about 3,000 km (1,800 miles), which extends to the US Army base on the Pacific island of Guam, but not as far as the mainland US.
> The US said it had tracked the latest launch, but could also not confirm details,
> "We call again on North Korea to refrain from actions and rhetoric that further raise tensions in the region and focus instead on taking concrete steps toward fulfilling its international commitments and obligations," a State Department official said.
> China also criticised what it called "the latest in a string of sabre-rattling that, if unchecked, will lead the country to nowhere," according to the official Xinhua news agency.
> 
> The BBC's Stephen Evans in Seoul says that even though it failed, the test illustrates the determination of current leader Kim Jong-un to get the ability to strike the United States, but also the North's technological limitations.
> The North has made a series of threats against the South and the US since the UN imposed some of its toughest ever sanctions on the country.
> The move was a response to the North's fourth nuclear test in January and its launching of a satellite in February, both of which broke existing sanctions.
> The North has also been angered by South Korea and the US conducting their largest ever joint military exercises, which wrap up next week.
> In March, North Korea said it had developed nuclear warheads small enough to fit on ballistic missiles. However, experts cast doubt on the claims.
> The birthday of North Korea's founder - Mr Kim's grandfather - is significant. Four years ago, the North tried to celebrate it with a similar missile launch, but that too failed.



 Article Link includes overhead imagery, photos and graphics.


----------



## jollyjacktar

Someone's going to die then for this failure.


----------



## Oldgateboatdriver

His failure has just "tied" him to the next attempt  [.


----------



## jollyjacktar

Seeing as they do use anti-aircraft guns to execute high level prisoners, I wouldn't be the least surprised if they did gun tape the poor bastard to the next launch vehicle.


----------



## CougarKing

Another SLBM test launch:

CNN



> *North Korea launches missile from submarine, South Korea says*
> Don Melvin is a newsdesk editor for CNN in London
> Jim Sciutto
> 
> North Korea has fired what is believed to be a submarine-launched ballistic missile off the east coast of the Korean peninsula, the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff said Saturday.
> 
> The missile was fired at 6:30 p.m. local time (5:30 a.m. ET), South Korean officials said, and appears to have flown for about 30 km (about 19 miles) -- well short of the 300 km (roughly 186 miles) that would be considered a successful test.
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## Retired AF Guy

More info on the submarine missile launch courtesy of Reuters..



> Business | Sun Apr 24, 2016 4:48am EDT Related: WORLD, NORTH KOREA, AEROSPACE & DEFENSE
> North Korea says submarine ballistic missile test 'great success'
> SEOUL | BY JACK KIM AND JU-MIN PARK
> 
> Reuters
> 
> North Korea said on Sunday a submarine-launched ballistic missile test it conducted under the supervision of leader Kim Jong Un had been a "great success" that provided "one more means for powerful nuclear attack".
> 
> The launch is the latest in a recent string of North Korean demonstrations of military might that began in January with its fourth nuclear test and included the launch of a long-range rocket the next month.
> 
> The tests have increased tension on the Korean peninsula, angered ally China and triggered new U.N. sanctions. Analysts say the tests could be part of a bid by Kim to bolster his position in the run-up to a rare ruling party congress in May.
> 
> Concern has been growing that North Korea could soon conduct another nuclear test.
> 
> North Korea fired the missile from a submarine off its east coast on Saturday and it flew for about 30 km (18 miles), a South Korean Defence Ministry official said late on Saturday.
> 
> South Korea was trying to determine whether the launch may have been a failure, for unspecified reasons, the official said.
> 
> The North's official news agency KCNA said the test-firing was "another great success," without disclosing the date and place of the launch, which it said was guided by leader Kim.
> 
> "The successful test-fire would help remarkably bolster the underwater operational capability of the KPA navy, he said, adding that it is now capable of hitting the heads of the South Korean puppet forces and the U.S. imperialists any time as it pleases," it said, citing Kim. KPA refers to the North's military.
> 
> North Korean state media published a photograph of Kim watching the missile breaching the sea. A second showed the missile flying into the air.
> 
> The missile was powered by a solid fuel engine, KCNA said, which if true would mark a significant advance in North Korea's submarine-launched missile technology, and be a "huge leap in ambition", according to Jeffrey Lewis of the California-based Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey.
> 
> The U.S. Strategic Command said it had detected and tracked the launch and it did not pose a threat to North America.
> 
> U.S. State Department spokesman John Kirby said launches using ballistic missile technology were "a clear violation of multiple UN Security Council resolutions."
> 
> North Korea is banned from nuclear tests and activities that use such technology under U.N. sanctions dating to 2006 and most recently adopted in March. But it has pushed ahead with work to miniaturize a nuclear warhead and develop an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).
> 
> FIRST CONGRESS IN 36 YEARS
> 
> France on Saturday called on the European Union to unilaterally adopt additional sanctions against North Korea if the missile launch was confirmed.
> 
> North Korea first attempted to launch a submarine-based missile last year.
> 
> However, a series of test launches were believed to have failed, and its state media earlier carried footage that appeared to have been edited to fake success, according to experts who have seen the visuals.
> 
> North Korea will hold a congress of its ruling Workers' Party in early May for the first time in 36 years, at which Kim is expected to formally declare his country a strong military power and a nuclear state.
> 
> North Korea's foreign minister, Ri Su Yong, told the Associated Press in New York on Saturday that his country was ready to halt nuclear tests if the United States suspended military exercises with South Korea.
> 
> North Korea made that demand in January after its nuclear test.
> 
> Satellite images show North Korea may have resumed tunnel excavation at its main nuclear test site, similar to activity seen before the January test, a U.S. North Korea monitoring website reported last week.
> 
> South Korea and the United States, as well as experts, believe the North is working to develop a submarine-launched ballistic missile system and an ICBM putting the mainland United States within range.
> 
> (Additional reporting by James Pearson; Editing by Bill Trott, Robert Birsel)



 Article Link includes photos of launch.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Retired AF Guy said:
			
		

> More info on the submarine missile launch courtesy of Reuters ...


... and a few photos from the N.Korean Info-machine (source)- feel free to caption as you see fit  ;D


----------



## jollyjacktar

The minions behind young-un seem rather relieved the shoot was a success.


----------



## tomahawk6

It was a partial success as they did get the missile launched,but there was an engine failure and it crashed after a 30k flight.


----------



## CougarKing

Pyongyang influenced by Beijing's own official "No First Use" nuke weapons policy?

Associated Press



> *Kim Jong Un says Pyongyang won't use nukes first*
> 
> Eric Talmadge, The Associated Press
> May 7, 2016
> 
> 
> PYONGYANG, North Korea - North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said during a critical ruling party congress that his country will not use its nuclear weapons first unless its sovereignty is invaded, state media reported Sunday.
> 
> Kim also said he is ready to improve ties with "hostile" nations in a diplomatic overture in the face of international pressure over its recent nuclear test and long-range rocket launch. He also called for more talks with rival South Korea to reduce misunderstanding and distrust between them and urged the United States to stay away from inter-Korean issues, according to the official Korean Central News Agency.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## tomahawk6

S.M.A. said:
			
		

> Pyongyang influenced by Beijing's own official "No First Use" nuke weapons policy?
> 
> Associated Press



Frankly you cant believe any promises Comrade Kim offers.


----------



## CougarKing

Surprise, surprise. North Korea isn't as egalitarian as its ideologues says it is:  :

Sydney Morning Herald



> North Korea’s one per centers savour life in 'Pyonghattan'
> 
> Date
> May 18, 2016
> 
> Anna Fifield
> 
> Pyongyang: They like fast fashion from Zara and H&M. They work out to be seen as much as to exercise. They drink cappuccinos to show how cosmopolitan they are. Some have had their eyelids done to make them look more western.
> 
> North Korea now has a one per cent. And you'll find them in 'Pyonghattan', the parallel universe inhabited by the rich kids of the Democratic People's Republic.
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## CougarKing

Good for her. Though she probably narrowly escaped being executed by AA guns the same way her other relatives were.

Chicago Tribune



> *The secret life of Kim Jong Un's aunt, a U.S. resident since 1998 *
> Anna Fifield
> 
> The Washington Post
> 
> Wandering through Times Square, past the Naked Cowboy and the Elmos and the ticket touts, she could be any immigrant trying to live the American Dream.
> 
> A 60-year-old Korean woman with a soft perm and conservative clothes, she's taking a weekend off from pressing shirts and hemming pants at the dry-cleaning business she runs with her husband.
> 
> But she's not just any immigrant. She's an aunt to Kim Jong Un, the young North Korean leader who has threatened to wipe out New York with a hydrogen bomb.
> 
> *And for the past 18 years, since defecting from North Korea into the waiting arms of the CIA, she has been living an anonymous life here in the United States, with her husband and three children.
> *
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## CougarKing

Some poor North Korean rocket experts are probably headed to the gulag/work camps after this latest failure:

CNN



> *North Korean missile launch attempt apparently failed, South Korea says*
> 
> By KJ Kwon and Katie Hunt, CNN
> 
> Updated 12:56 AM ET, Tue May 31, 2016
> 
> Seoul (CNN)North Korea attempted to launch a missile Tuesday, although it appeared to be unsuccessful, South Korea's military said.
> One missile was fired from the eastern city of Wonsan at 5:20 a.m., the South Korea Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said.
> 
> "Our military has maintained readiness as (we are) bracing for possibilities of additional provocations," said Jeon Ha-gyu, the chief of public affairs for the JCS.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## cupper

Maybe they should see their doctor and discuss a prescription for Flyagra to help that that Missile Disfunction.  ;D


----------



## CougarKing

I'm guessing it's only a matter of time before the restaurant staff there also defect:

CNN



> *What's it like to eat at one of North Korea's overseas restaurants?*
> 
> By Richard Ehrlich, for CNN
> 
> Updated 2103 GMT (0503 HKT) June 8, 2016
> 
> Pyongyang Okryu Restaurant – For those unable or unwilling to head to Pyongyang, there are opportunities to experience North Korean cuisine in the country's numerous overseas restaurants. Bangkok has two, including Pyongyang Okryu, pictured.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## CougarKing

Hopefully they didn't steal any stuff on the F15SE Silent Eagle:

Alert 5



> *Hackers from North Korea stole F-15 blueprints*
> 
> South Korean police has admitted that hackers from the North have hacked into networks at 160 South Korean firms and government agencies. In one case, blueprints for the wings of the Boeing F-15 were stolen from the computers of Korean Air Lines.


----------



## Oldgateboatdriver

Allright! I am just a stupid sailor here, but can someone explain to me what plans for the wings of an F-15 were doing in the database of Korean Air Lines?


----------



## PuckChaser

Oldgateboatdriver said:
			
		

> Allright! I am just a stupid sailor here, but can someone explain to me what plans for the wings of an F-15 were doing in the database of Korean Air Lines?


Contract to build components? One of the downfalls of using civilian companies to do stuff, may not be hardened like a military contractor would be against cyber warfare.


----------



## Oldgateboatdriver

But Korean Air Lines doesn't build fuc* all. It is a passenger air line, period.


----------



## GR66

I'm guessing that "Korean Air Lines" is an error in the article and they actually mean "Korean Aerospace Industries (KAI)".  

They are a defence contractor that has done licenced production of Korean F-16's, produce their own domestic jet aircraft including the T-50/FA-50 trainer/light attack fighter which is co-development with Lockheed Martin and a candidate for the USAF's T-X trainer aircraft replacement program.

Possibly they had the information as part of the Korean evaluations of the F15-SE for their F-X advanced fighter replacement program?


----------



## a_majoor

Strategypage. The life depicted in the DPRK is depressingly familiar to anyone with an interest in history, the USSR, Nazi Germany, and various other states have all used variations of these techniques to silence their own people and extract their labour without compensation:

http://strategypage.com/qnd/korea/articles/20160616.aspx



> *Korea: Let Them Eat Nothing*
> 
> June 16, 2016: North Korea is trying to avoid food shortages by ordering more people to leave their regular jobs and spend 30 days (May 15- June 15) helping out with planting the rice crop. This year it includes university students. If you have the money, you can bribe your way out of this chore. About a third of the students manage to pay the bribe. That is annoying enough but then about a third of the students who go to the farms get out of about half the work because they are those who work as informers for the government. Nationwide about ten percent of the population work as informers for the police or secret police. This is a common practice in all police states, especially those based on the Russian (communist) model. The extent of this system became public after 1989 when so many communist governments in Europe (including Russia) collapsed and people were free to talk about this. Many of these former subjects of communist government were surprised to find out how extensive the informant networks were. In key areas, like the military, police and universities, there were a lot more informers especially those whose main job was to keep an eye on other informers. Being an informer brings with it many economic, career and other benefits. The downside is the students sent to work (up to 14 hours a day for a month) on the farms quickly noted who the informers were because they did not work much (if at all) but made sure non-informers did. Since university students are the leaders of the next generation the government must have been quite desperate to send the students to the farms.
> 
> For non-students the bribes are not only expensive (up to $100 per person) but for the many who cannot afford them it means losing a month’s income from the non-government jobs more and more North Koreas now use to survive. The government knows policies like this are unpopular and has ordered fewer public punishments of those who disobey. This includes no more public executions (usually by firing squad) for major non-political crimes (like murder). The executions still take place, just not where anyone can see it.
> 
> The forced labor has been part of life in North Korea from the beginning. But now northerners are also being taxed in a more conventional sense but without regard to ability-to-pay. Like most communist police states, there was never a system for individuals and enterprises to pay taxes. Instead the centrally controlled economy would “allocate” a portion of national income for various uses and people were paid with small amounts of cash plus allocations of food, housing and other goods as well as favors. But now more and more North Koreans are surviving in the legalized market economy and the government has not accepted the need for income or sales taxes. Instead they have periodic mandatory “voluntary donations” by all people in a province, city or smaller area to pay for whatever the government declares must be built or repaired. Those who cannot pay must show up and contribute labor. For those dependent on a market economy job, it means weeks or months of lost income. The government does little to help those who cannot obtain enough food, fuel or shelter because of this. While the more affluent government officials and market economy entrepreneurs can afford the bribes (which enable government officials to prosper and eat well) the majority of North Koreans cannot and the secret police report growing unrest among these people who now compare the government to the oppressive feudal rulers of the past. The communist promised to eliminate that sort of oppression but now it is returning, at least as far as the growing number of victims are concerned.
> 
> Managing The Chinese Threat
> 
> Few North Korean officials have any illusions about the ability of their country to survive if China halted all trade. The UN sanctions do not prohibit imports of essentials, like food and these continue. Because of the legal market economy in North Korea that means food is still available all the time but at higher (market) prices. The government refuses to do what China has done and let the market economy legally spread to larger enterprises (like manufacturing or farming and mining). That means the government can no longer pay workers in food as it was able to do since the 1950s because of food and other aid coming in from Russia (mostly) and China. Most of that disappeared after the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. For the growing number of North Koreans who have seen how the Chinese economy works they know that if China cut all trade with North Korea the shortages, especially of food, in North Korea would have catastrophic consequences within weeks or months. Chinese know this and during the first week of June senior Chinese and North Korean officials met to try and improve diplomatic and economic relations between the two countries. This involves the essential role China plays in keeping North Korea alive. This year North Korea got a very visible and painful reminder of that in March when China began enforcing all the UN trade sanctions against North Korea. Now China promises more pain if North Korean rulers do not become more cooperative.
> 
> The impact of China enforcing the sanctions was immediately felt by North Korean industry, especially factories producing military goods (like ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons). North Korea is desperate and North Korean leaders are willing to do almost anything to mend relations with China. “Almost” may not be enough unless North Korea agrees to adopt a market economy to the extent that China has. China, however, is willing to be more flexible on that if North Korea will cooperate in other ways. At the June meetings North Korean officials were told, privately, that all would be well if North Korea got rid of its nuclear weapons and its nuclear weapons development program. South Korea found out about this because China asked for help from the south in the form of agreeing to “denuclearization of the Korean peninsula.” South Korea could easily develop nukes but has been dissuaded from doing so by American assurances that U.S. nuclear weapons were defending South Korea and that all the neighbors (especially North Korea, China and Russia) knew this. Although American tactical nukes (for use by missiles, artillery and bombers) have been illegally (according to the 1953 ceasefire agreement that ended the Korean War) stored in South Korea since the late 1950s, these are mostly gone now.
> 
> North Korea has not yet officially responded to this Chines proposal. Meanwhile Chinese enforcement of the sanctions is being felt by everyone in North Korea because China has long been the only source of key metals and components for their missiles and nukes as well as many non-military products. North Korea now finds it cannot bribe Chinese border guard to let contraband in mainly because North Korea is so unpopular in China that Chinese border guards are instead searching North Korean trucks and railroad cars with greater intensity. In part that’s because if contraband is found the legal cargo and vehicle can be seized as well. That earns the guards a bonus.
> 
> If China cut all trade it would likely have to eventually deal with the resulting chaos and send in troops along with food supplies. But if North Korea has effective nuclear and chemical weapons aimed at China a total trade embargo could bring retaliation that would hurt China and get a Chinese response that would eliminate the North Korean government and much else besides. North Korean leaders apparently feel China will not risk that sort of chaos. China is trying to make North Korea understand that China has done this sort of thing before and will do it again if there is no other way to deal with the kind of threat North Korea is becoming. Historically China has employed surprise in such situations, applying force when it is not expected, sometimes even as negotiations were underway. China has been reinforcing its military and secret police forces along the North Korean border for several years now. Substantial Chinese forces could move across the border within hours, while supported by the hundreds of modern warplanes now based in the area. The Chinese navy regularly trains in the seas between China and North Korea. North Korean leaders try to appear unimpressed.
> 
> The June talks ended with no announcements of North Korea agreeing to get rid of its nukes or of China applying more trade restrictions. This usually means that North Korea has been given some time to figure how to comply with Chinese demands or come up with a convincing reason not to. For example one alternative solution would involve allowing Chinese to monitor the North Korean nukes at all times. What is certain is that China is running out of patience and North Korea is running out of options. Separately from the June talks China did announce that as part of their effort to comply with the UN sanctions a long list of dual-use materials and technologies could no longer be exported to North Korea. In addition China has cracked down on North Korean use of Chinese banks for money laundering. Russia had already done the same a month earlier.
> 
> Rather less publically China has curbed the activities of the hundreds of North Korean secret police agents working in northeast China to search for illegal migrants from North Korea. These plainclothes agents, who speak Chinese well enough to pass for Chinese, are supposed to report criminal activities (by Chinese or North Koreans) to Chinese officials but that does not always happen. China wants to remind North Korea that if these agents become a problem they will be banned (or worse). There have already been reports of North Korean agents caught when Chinese officials were arrested for corruption. This year China has been concentrating on prosecuting local officials who have taken bribes from North Korea to allow forbidden goods to get into North Korea. For several years the Chinese anti-corruption effort has been pretty intense and well-publicized but the corruption problem is so widespread that the government can select which areas to unleash investigators on. Both sides of the North Korean border has long been a hot spot for corruption. It was also one of those areas where the corruption was more of a benefit to Chinese than in other areas (where the victims were Chinese). That has changed and that also sends a message to North Korea. It is still possible to use bribes, but it is a lot more expensive and increasingly not an option.


----------



## CougarKing

For the next batch of North Korea missile makers and rocket scientists: it's the gulag or bust if they fail.

Defense News



> *Signs of possible North Korea missile launch: reports*
> Agence France-Presse 9:49 a.m. EDT June 21, 2016
> 
> 
> SEOUL — North Korea appears to be readying another test of a powerful, new medium-range missile, following a series of failures for a ballistic weapons program that aspires to threaten the US mainland, multiple reports said Tuesday.
> 
> Japanese and South Korean media quoted official sources as saying North Korea looked to have deployed a so-called Musudan missile near its east coast.
> 
> The North has made four failed attempts this year to test fly the Musudan, which has an estimated range of anywhere between 2,500 and 4,000 kilometers (1,550 to 2,500 miles).
> 
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## CougarKing

Back to the drawing board...or straight to the gulag/work camp for Kim's usual scapegoats. 

Reuters



> *North Korean missile launched from sub apparently failed - South Korea*
> By: Reuters
> July 9, 2016 11:21 AM
> 
> 
> (UPDATE 2 - 1:12 p.m.) North Korea fired a submarine-launched ballistic missile on Saturday but the launch appears to have failed in the early stages of flight, South Korea's military said.
> 
> South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff said in a statement that the missile was launched at about 11:30 a.m. Seoul time (0230 GMT) in waters east of the Korean peninsula.
> 
> The missile was likely fired from the submarine as planned but appears to have failed in the early stage of flight, the Joint Chiefs of Staff said.
> 
> North Korea previously fired an SLBM on April 23 in a test hailed as an "eye-opening sucess" by leader Kim Jong-Un, who at the time declared his country had the ability to strike Seoul and the US whenever it pleased.
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## CougarKing

Just like the Energizer bunny, Kim Jong Un keeps launching and launching and launching...

Yahoo News Singapore




> *North Korea test-fires three ballistic missiles*
> 
> North Korea test-fired three ballistic missiles on Tuesday, in further defiance of the international community and in apparent reaction to the planned deployment of a US defence system in the South.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)
> 
> *Two SCUD missiles flew between 500 and 600 kilometres (310-370 miles) into the Sea of Japan*, while a *third, believed to be Rodong intermediate range ballistic missile*, was fired about an hour later.


----------



## CougarKing

In the wake of the latest North Korean missile launches, one of which landed in Japan's EEZ  a couple of days ago:

Yonhap 



> *U.S. deploys dozen F-16 jets to S. Korea amid N. Korea tensions*
> 2016/08/04 02:13
> 
> WASHINGTON, Aug. 3 (Yonhap) -- A dozen U.S. F-16 fighter jets and hundreds of airmen have arrived in South Korea to help beef up defense of the Asian ally, the U.S. Pacific Air Forces said, as North Korea keeps ratcheting
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## CougarKing

Another sign that things are worse than commonly known in North Korea:

BBC



> *North Korea diplomat in London defects to South*
> 
> 3 hours ago
> From the section Asia
> 
> A top North Korean diplomat who disappeared from the country's embassy in London has defected to South Korea, officials in Seoul have confirmed.
> 
> Thae Yong-ho and his family are under the government's protection, a South Korean official said.
> 
> Mr Thae was the ambassador's deputy and is thought to be the highest-ranking North Korean official ever to defect.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## CougarKing

No doubt the girl in the picture at the link below must be privately cringing in disgust in the photo she took with him:

Yahoo Sports



> *Kim Jong-un' makes a sensational appearance at the Rio Olympics*
> Fourth-Place Medal By Daniel Tran
> 19 August, 2016 9:34 PM
> 
> 
> North Korea is notorious for keeping a close eye on its athletes during international competition. Kim Jong-un has been spotted several times in the crowd in Rio, but not even North Korean athletes thought he would be this close to the action.
> 
> Or at least it appeared to be him.
> 
> For those that don’t know, Kim Jong-un is the isolated leader of the People’s Republic of North Korea. “Kim Jong-un,” however, is the life of the party.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## Edward Campbell

S.M.A. said:
			
		

> No doubt the girl in the picture at the link below must be privately cringing in disgust in the photo she took with him:
> 
> Yahoo Sports



Uh ... he (known as "Howard") is a Hong Kong imposter.


----------



## dimsum

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> Uh ... he (known as "Howard") is a Hong Kong imposter.



Yes...that is what *they* would want you to think.   >

Yes, I know he is an honest imposter (that was a weird thing to write down)


----------



## CougarKing

At some point Beijing has to say "enough is enough" if Pyongyang keeps rattling the regional economic gravy train. 

Reuters



> *N.Korea test-fires submarine-launched ballistic missile -S.Korea*
> Reuters
> 53 mins ago
> 
> SEOUL, Aug 24 (Reuters) - A submarine-launched ballistic missile fired by North Korea on Wednesday flew about 500 km (300 miles), South Korea's military said, and South Korean news agency Yonhap said it fell inside Japan's Air Defence Identification Zone.
> 
> The missile was fired off the North's east coast into the sea, the South's military said earlier on Wednesday. (Reporting by Jack Kim and Ju-min Park; Editing by James Dalgleish)


----------



## CougarKing

Wouldn't it be only a matter of time before a sufficient number of disgruntled officials decides to preempt Kim from executing them next?

Reuters



> * North Korea publicly executes two officials - S.Korean newspaper *
> Reuters
> 
> 2 hrs ago
> 
> North Korea publicly executed two officials in early August for disobeying leader Kim Jong Un, a South Korean newspaper reported on Tuesday, in what would be the latest in a series of high-level purges under the young leader's rule, if confirmed.
> 
> Kim took power in 2011 after the death of his father, Kim Jong Il, and his consolidation of power has included purges and executions of top officials, South Korean officials have said.
> 
> Citing an unidentified source familiar with the North, the JoongAng Ilbo daily said *former agriculture minister Hwang Min and Ri Yong Jin, a senior official at the education ministry,* had been executed.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## The Bread Guy

S.M.A. said:
			
		

> Wouldn't it be only a matter of time before a sufficient number of disgruntled officials decides to preempt Kim from executing them next?
> 
> Reuters


You'd think they'd read the routine orders about falling asleep at the meetings ...  ;D


			
				S.M.A. said:
			
		

> Another day, another execution in North Korea...
> 
> 
> 
> *North Korea executes defense chief on treason charges: South Korean media*
> 
> SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korea has executed its defense chief on treason charges after he fell asleep at an event attended by leader Kim Jong Un, South Korean media quoted Seoul's National Intelligence Service as saying in a briefing to lawmakers on Wednesday.
> 
> North Korean Defense Minister Hyon Yong Chol was purged and then executed by firing squad, media reported.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)
> 
> 
> 
> Reuters
Click to expand...


----------



## CougarKing

WTF?!

Sky News



> * NK Soldiers 'Armed With Nuclear Backpacks' *
> Sky News
> 
> 1 hour ago
> 
> Elite soldiers in North Korea have reportedly been chosen to form special units armed with "nuclear backpacks".
> 
> According to a Radio Free Asia (RFA) source, top-performing soldiers were hand-picked from several military divisions to establish the special battalion-sized units.
> 
> They have allegedly been taking part in simulated training exercises with dummy weapons reported to weigh between 10 and 28 kilograms.
> 
> The anonymous source, from the North Hamgyong province, told the station: *"Outstanding soldiers were selected from each reconnaissance platoon and light infantry brigade to form the nuclear backpack unit the size of a battalion."*
> 
> *The bombs can allegedly spray radioactive material, the source said. *
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## The Bread Guy

S.M.A. said:
			
		

> WTF?!
> 
> Sky News


Here's the original Radio Free Asia story, shared under the Fair Use provisions of the _Copyright Act_ - screen capture also attached in case link doesn't work ...


> Top soldiers from North Korea’s military are being selected to serve on new “nuclear backpack” attack units under each corps of the People’s Army, North Korean sources said.
> 
> “Outstanding soldiers were selected from each reconnaissance platoon and light infantry brigade to form the nuclear backpack unit the size of a battalion,” said a source from North Hamgyong province who declined to be named.
> 
> The special units have been formed since March this year, he said.
> 
> The nuclear backpack unit of the 9th corps stationed in North Hamgyong province was organized as a battalion affiliated with the 45th division, which is located in Munhwa-dong, Chongam-district in Chongjin city, he said.
> 
> The formation of the new squads of soldiers came at around the same time that the members of the U.N. Security Council unanimously agreed to impose a new round of sanctions on North Korea, following the country’s fourth nuclear test on Jan. 6 and the launch on Feb. 7 of a satellite-bearing rocket that the world viewed as a disguised ballistic missile test.
> 
> The sanctions are aimed at curbing Pyongyang’s ability to build up its nuclear and rocket programs.
> 
> The regular soldiers often go out around private houses nearby to exchange rice and cooking oil for alcoholic beverages and tobacco, the source said.
> 
> The uniforms of soldiers selected for the nuclear backpack unit are similar to those of regular infantry troops, the source said, adding that the members of the new units in the 45th division receive no special food or supply benefits.
> 
> When the source asked the regular soldiers what the nuclear backpack unit looks like, they responded that they had never seen it, although the soldiers in the unit have been participating in simulated training exercises with dummy bombs, the source said.
> 
> *Crushing blow*
> 
> Similarly, the reconnaissance battalion of the 43rd light infantry brigade under the 7th army corps stationed in Sanghung-ri, Gapsan county in Yanggang province has been reorganized as a nuclear backpack unit, a source from Yanggang province told RFA.
> 
> North Korean military authorities have instructed soldiers about the substance of nuclear pack bombs which deliver the same crushing blow as a nuclear explosion by spraying radioactive material on the enemy, although they don’t generate as big as an explosion as nuclear bombs, the source said.
> 
> The dummy bombs that nuclear pack units use for training purposes range in weight from 10 kilograms (22 pounds) to 28 kilograms (62 pounds), he said.
> 
> Besides the ones that spray radioactive material, there are also time bombs that have a missile guidance system, he said.
> 
> Another North Korean source who was at a drinking party with a nuclear engineer visiting his hometown said the engineer complained that the nuclear backpack bomb was not a miniaturized version of a nuclear bomb, but a weapon that sprays high levels of uranium.
> 
> “Once the uranium has been sprayed [in an area], people cannot live there for several decades because of radioactive contamination,” the engineer told the source.
> 
> “I don’t understand why they are making those weapons,” the engineer said.
> 
> *Advanced anti-ballistic missile system*
> 
> Despite the new sanctions, North Korean leader Kim Jung Un is intent on maintaining and demonstrating its ballistic missile and nuclear capabilities.
> 
> His regime was rattled by news in July that South Korea and the U.S. were deploying an advanced anti-ballistic missile system known as Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD).
> 
> In response, Pyongyang said it would "physically act" against the system and make the two allies "suffer from the nightmare [of] extreme uneasiness and terror."
> 
> Then in early August, the country fired two intermediate range ballistic missiles—one of which reportedly exploded after launch and another that landed in the Sea of Japan.
> 
> On Wednesday, North Korea test-fired a submarine-based ballistic missile in the waters off Sinpo, South Hamgyong province as the United States and South Korea conducted their annual two-week joint military exercises.
> 
> _Reported by Jieun Kim and Sung-Hui Moon for RFA’s Korean Service. Translated by Hyosun Kim. Written in English by Roseanne Gerin._


----------



## Brad Sallows

Dirty bomb, not nuclear bomb.


----------



## Jarnhamar

US had the same type of backpack nuke dudes. Ex CIA chief used to be one if I recall correctly.


----------



## dimsum

Jarnhamar said:
			
		

> US had the same type of backpack nuke dudes. Ex CIA chief used to be one if I recall correctly.



The Special Atomic Demolition Munition seems like a true "backpack nuke" while the NK version is more of a dirty bomb.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_Atomic_Demolition_Munition


----------



## a_majoor

Making miniaturized nuclear weapons to fit in artillery shells and backpacks is an arcane art, and I would be very dubious that the DPRK has the ability to do so. The consensus that they are talking about a "dirty" bomb makes more sense.


----------



## MilEME09

https://news.vice.com/article/it-looks-like-north-korea-just-detonated-its-biggest-nuclear-bomb-yet


New nuclear test, estimated to be the same size as the fat man bomb dropped on Nagasaki

Sent from my LG-D852 using Tapatalk


----------



## dimsum

Seemingly not the Onion:



> North Korea bans sarcasm because Kim Jong-un fears people only agree with him ‘ironically’
> 
> 
> North Korea has forbidden people from making sarcastic comments about Kim Jong-un or his totalitarian regime in their everyday conversations.
> 
> Even indirect criticism of the authoritarian government has been banned, Asian media reported.
> 
> Residents were warned against criticising the state in a series of mass meetings held by functionaries across the country.
> 
> Officials told people that sarcastic expressions such as “This is all America’s fault” would constitute unacceptable criticism of the regime.



http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/north-korea-bans-sarcasm-kim-jong-un-freedom-speech-a7231461.html


----------



## George Wallace

Dimsum said:
			
		

> Seemingly not the Onion:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> North Korea bans sarcasm because Kim Jong-un fears people only agree with him ‘ironically’
> 
> 
> North Korea has forbidden people from making sarcastic comments about Kim Jong-un or his totalitarian regime in their everyday conversations.
> 
> Even indirect criticism of the authoritarian government has been banned, Asian media reported.
> 
> Residents were warned against criticising the state in a series of mass meetings held by functionaries across the country.
> 
> Officials told people that sarcastic expressions such as “This is all America’s fault” would constitute unacceptable criticism of the regime.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/north-korea-bans-sarcasm-kim-jong-un-freedom-speech-a7231461.html
Click to expand...


I guess many of us would not survive long in North Korea.   [


----------



## CougarKing

If it wasn't for North Korea's supposed nukes and WMDs, South Korea/ROK's better equipped, better trained and better fed military could have liberated the people of the North from Kim Jong Un's thugs long ago, even without the US 2nd Infantry Division's help. And Beijing probably won't intervene like last time, since it would be in China's interest to have a prosperous unified Korea under Seoul stabilizing the region for China's economic "gravy train". 

Independent



> *South Korea says it would 'annihilate' Pyongyang if North starts nuclear war *
> The Independent
> 
> Caroline Mortimer
> 2 hrs ago
> 
> South Korea has a secret plan to "annihilate" Pyongyang if the North Korean regime shows any sign of mounting a nuclear attack, the country's largest news agency has reported.
> 
> An unnamed military source told Yonhap that every part of the North Korean capital will be "completely destroyed by ballistic missiles and high-explosive shells".
> 
> Those districts which are thought to be hiding the leadership would be particularly targeted and the city "will be reduced to ashes and removed from the map".
> 
> Yonhap has close ties to the South Korean government and is publicly funded.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## a_majoor

More on the above:

http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2016/09/11/0200000000AEN20160911000500315.html



> S. Korea unveils plan to raze Pyongyang in case of signs of nuclear attack
> 2016/09/11 11:31
> 
> SEOUL, Sept. 11 (Yonhap) -- South Korea has already developed a plan to annihilate the North Korean capital of Pyongyang through intensive bombing in case the North shows any signs of a nuclear attack, a military source in Seoul said Sunday.
> 
> "Every Pyongyang district, particularly where the North Korean leadership is possibly hidden, will be completely destroyed by ballistic missiles and high-explosive shells as soon as the North shows any signs of using a nuclear weapon. In other words, the North's capital city will be reduced to ashes and removed from the map," the source said.
> 
> 
> South Korea's Hyunmoo II ballistic missile (Yonhap file photo provided by the Ministry of National Defense)South Korea's Hyunmoo II ballistic missile (Yonhap file photo provided by the Ministry of National Defense)
> 
> The disclosure of the detailed bombing operation came after the Defense Ministry reported the "Korea Massive Punishment & Retaliation" (KMPR) to the National Assembly last week in response to the North's fifth nuclear weapon test.
> 
> "The defense ministry's operational concept 'Korea Massive Punishment & Retaliation' is aimed at wiping a certain section of Pyongyang completely off the map," the source noted.
> 
> The operational concept is intended to launch pre-emptive bombing attacks on North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and the country's military leadership if signs of their impending use of nuclear weapons are detected or in the event of a war, the source added.
> 
> South Korea plans to mobilize its locally developed surface-to-surface ballistic missile arsenal for the operational concept, including Hyunmoo 2As, 2Bs and Hyunmoo 3s, according to the source.
> 
> The ballistic missiles have ranges of 300, 500 and 1,000 kilometers, respectively.
> 
> By next year, the military plans to finish launch tests of the missiles and sharply expand the Hyunmoo missile arsenal, the source said.
> 
> "The KMPR is the utmost operation concept the military can have in the absence of its own nuclear weapons," he also noted.
> 
> Another source indicated the military has recently launched a special operational unit in charge of destroying the North Korean military leadership.
> 
> "This military unit is dedicated to targeting the North Korean leadership and launching retaliatory attacks on them," the source noted.
> 
> pbr@yna.co.kr


----------



## CougarKing

Kim's regime continues to dig a deeper hole for itself:

Reuters



> *North Korea ready for another nuclear test any time: South Korea*
> Mon Sep 12, 2016 6:38pm EDT
> By Ju-min Park and Jack Kim
> 
> SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korea is ready to conduct an additional nuclear test at any time, South Korea's Defence Ministry said on Monday, three days after Pyongyang's fifth test drew widespread condemnation.
> 
> North Korea set off its most powerful nuclear blast to date on Friday, saying it had mastered the ability to mount a warhead on a ballistic missile and ratcheting up a threat that its rivals and the United Nations have been powerless to contain.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## a_majoor

Frankly, it is not a deeper hole if no one is willing to do anything about it, and indeed it is more of raising a mountain if it gets the sort of results that nuclear blackmail achieved against the Clinton Administration in the 1990's (huge shipments of food and oil for meaningless and unhonoured pledges to stop their nuclear program).

It is difficult to see what can actually be now done short of a decapitation strike on the DPRK's leadership and C3 infrastructure, with a simultaneous raid on the nuclear test facilities with the aim of killing or capturing all the DPRK's nuclear scientists and technicians, as well as seizing and removing all nuclear materials that can be found on site (and by "raid" I would have to advocate for a brigade or larger sized force striking the complex).

And outside of a Tom Clancy novel, that does not seem to be in the cards.


----------



## MilEME09

Thucydides said:
			
		

> Frankly, it is not a deeper hole if no one is willing to do anything about it, and indeed it is more of raising a mountain if it gets the sort of results that nuclear blackmail achieved against the Clinton Administration in the 1990's (huge shipments of food and oil for meaningless and unhonoured pledges to stop their nuclear program).
> 
> It is difficult to see what can actually be now done short of a decapitation strike on the DPRK's leadership and C3 infrastructure, with a simultaneous raid on the nuclear test facilities with the aim of killing or capturing all the DPRK's nuclear scientists and technicians, as well as seizing and removing all nuclear materials that can be found on site (and by "raid" I would have to advocate for a brigade or larger sized force striking the complex).
> 
> And outside of a Tom Clancy novel, that does not seem to be in the cards.



How about a JSOW or JASSM Strike at the tunnel complex to collapse it? the JSOW-ER has a range of 300nm and the JASSM-ER over 620nm, strike from outside the north's air defense perimeter. Not a Strike to  necessarily destroy key infrastructure but a warning shot, the loss of the test site would set them back a bit.


----------



## CougarKing

These launches seem to be more frequent that the previous year.

AFP via France 24



> *North Korea successfully tests new, high-power rocket success - state media*
> By: Agence France-Presse
> September 20, 2016 6:52 AM
> 
> 
> PYONGYANG, North Korea -- North Korea has carried out a successful ground test for a new high-power rocket engine, state media said Tuesday.
> 
> The engine would give the country "sufficient carrier capability for launching various kinds of satellites, including earth observation satellite at a world level," KCNA news agency said.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


----------



## MilEME09

http://americanmilitarynews.com/2017/04/u-s-aircraft-carrier-led-strike-group-reverses-course-heads-back-towards-north-korea-korean-peninsula/amp/

How many reasons can we name for a carrier strike group to do a almost about turn and head for korea instead of Australia?

Sent from my LG-D852 using Tapatalk


----------



## tomahawk6

We are launching a classic squeeze play. China has blocked the delivery of North Korean coal. The US is prepare to make up any shortfall and 150,000 PLA troops are arrayed along the border. The USN is offshore or will soon be in position. I would be willing to bet that Japanese and ROK destroyers will join them. Here is a photo of the strike group.


----------



## The Bread Guy

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> ... 150,000 PLA troops are arrayed along the border ...


And are we sure yet if those (what sound like new-ish) troops are on the same page as the U.S. & ROK  against the PRK?  Some reports sound good so far ...

Also, some interesting leverage from POTUS45:  _*"China will get better U.S. trade deal if it solves North Korea problem: Trump"*_


----------



## AirDet

It looks like Japan wants a piece of N. Korea too. They have dispatched ships to join in "exercises" with Carl Vinson Strike Group.

http://news.abs-cbn.com/overseas/04/12/17/japan-plans-joint-show-of-force-with-us-carrier-headed-to-korean-peninsula-sources


----------



## Kirkhill

> *China's Global Times warns North Korea to stop nuclear and missile activities*



http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/chinas-global-times-warns-north-korea-to-stop-nuclear-and-missile-activities



> BEIJING (REUTERS) - North Korea should halt any plan for nuclear and missile activities "for its own security", an influential Chinese newspaper said on Wednesday (April 12), warning that the United States is making clear it does not plan to "co-exist" with a nuclear-armed Pyongyang.
> 
> The Korean peninsula has not been so close to a "military clash" since North Korea conducted its first nuclear test in 2006, the Global Times said in an editorial.
> 
> "Not only is Washington brimming with confidence and arrogance following the missile attacks on Syria, but Trump is also willing to be regarded as a man who honours his promises,"said the paper run by the ruling Communist Party's official People's Daily.
> 
> "The US is making up its mind to stop the North from conducting further nuclear tests. It doesn't plan to co-exist with a nuclear-armed Pyongyang," it said. "Pyongyang should avoid making mistakes at this time."
> 
> The Global Times, whose stance does not equate with Chinese government policy, said that Beijing would likely react strongly to any North Korean test.
> 
> "If the North makes another provocative move this month, the Chinese society will be willing to see the (UN Security Council) adopt severe restrictive measures that have never been seen before, such as restricting oil imports to the North," the paper said.....



Meanwhile, from the NY Times yesterday:

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/11/world/asia/trump-china-trade-north-korea.html?ref=todayspaper



> ...Several former American officials said China was ...unlikely to respond as Mr. Trump now wants.
> 
> "He's clearly groping for leverage over China," said Evan S. Medeiros, a former top China adviser to President Barack Obama who is now head of Asia research at Eurasia Group.
> 
> But Mr. Medeiros added: "Linking such distinct issues seldom works...



I suggest that President Trump might have found some leverage and Mr. Medeiros might want to "recalibrate".

Explicit linkage of trade and defence.  Bumps security costs for everybody else making them less competitive.  

Cheap energy, low taxes makes America more of an investment opportunity.  Makes everyone else less competitive.

And no barriers have yet been raised.  Candidate Trump reminded everyone of what could happen and why they might want to play nice.


----------



## MilEME09

There's another hidden message here too, the Chinese - DPRK Border from what I've read has a fair bit of smuggling and illegal crossing happening all the time. 150,000 Chinese troops could be China's way of cracking down on this. The fact that this news paper which I suspect also has ties to communist party officials when it develops such articles means China is running out of patience with the DPRK.


----------



## Kirkhill

From the above:



> ...*but Trump is also willing to be regarded as a man who honours his promises,*"said the paper run by the ruling Communist Party's official People's Daily.



I'm not sure if I'm reading a poor translation (possible) or if the Communist Party of China is of the opinion that honouring promises is an undesirable trait in politicians and leaders.  If so, I don't think they are alone in that belief.


----------



## The Bread Guy

More grist for the mill -- RUS-state media says this:


> *Data on Sending 150,000 Chinese Troops to N Korea Border ‘Fabrication’ – Beijing*
> 
> _China’s Defense Ministry denied on Wednesday information on the alleged deployment of an additional 150,000 servicemen of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) to the border with North Korea, saying the data was fabricated._
> 
> BEIJING (Sputnik) – Various media reports alleging the deployment of troops have emerged since Monday.
> 
> "The information is a total fabrication," the Defense Ministry said, when asked if China had sent an additional contingent to the border with North Korea ...


So far, nothing to see on the English-language CHN def media here, but here's a Google Translation of something from the Chinese page, looking like a question to a PLA spokesperson:


> Ministry of Defense News Bureau reporter asked
> Source: Defense Department Network Editor: Liu Shangjing 2017-04-12 18:28
> 
> Q: According to foreign media reports, in response to the North Korean emergency, the Chinese military to the border between China and Canada*** sent 150,000 soldiers, please confirm.
> 
> A: The above reports are purely fabricated.


*** - Gotta love Google Translate, right?  When I do a translation of the shorter phrase, "DPRK" comes up instead of "Canada".
op:


----------



## tomahawk6

More on PLA deployment to the North Korean border. IF the North undertakes another nuclear test this week Trump may well launch some type of strike. There is alot of talk about a possible decapitation strike which would paralyze the decision making structure and might see new leadership emerge. This would make the entire region safer. It would be a tempting option. But you cant miss. Follow up with a limited PLA invasion and see who emerges from the leadership struggle.

http://www.smh.com.au/world/north-korea-tensions-reports-of-chinese-troops-on-border-20170411-gviljw.html


----------



## Lightguns

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> More on PLA deployment to the North Korean border. IF the North undertakes another nuclear test this week Trump may well launch some type of strike. There is alot of talk about a possible decapitation strike which would paralyze the decision making structure and might see new leadership emerge. This would make the entire region safer. It would be a tempting option. But you cant miss. Follow up with a limited PLA invasion and see who emerges from the leadership struggle.
> 
> http://www.smh.com.au/world/north-korea-tensions-reports-of-chinese-troops-on-border-20170411-gviljw.html



Don't see the Chinese in it without Trump seceding something in the South China Seas to them.  Pissing Vietnam and Philippines.


----------



## Rifleman62

I believe the current government in the Philippines are not US friendly.


----------



## Kirkhill

Lightguns said:
			
		

> Don't see the Chinese in it without Trump seceding something in the South China Seas to them.  Pissing Vietnam and Philippines.



I think Trump is giving China what they want.  He has backed off on calling them currency manipulators already and has promised that he would consider their assistance in managing North Korea during trade negotiations.   China, like the US and most other folks, are first of all concerned about their economy.  Trade is the big issue.

Islands in the South China Seas are important but lesser issues.  The Carl Vinson, heading for North Korea, has been sailing the South China Seas since Feb 17 and WW III hasn't broken out yet.

The Chinese response at the time was distinctly muted.



> The U.S. carrier strike group arrives in the South China Sea amid growing expectations that the Trump administration will intensify U.S. operations in the area, where China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan are mired in disputes over maritime entitlements and islets. The United States has no territorial claims in the region, but supports free navigation for civilian and military vessels alike.
> 
> As I discussed earlier this month, the new carrier strike group may serve as a vector for expanded U.S. freedom of navigation operations (FONOPs) in the South China Sea. The Obama administration carried out four FONOPs in the South China Sea after China began constructing seven artificial islands in the Spratly group.
> 
> Asked about possible oncoming FONOPs in the South China Sea by ships associated with the Carl Vinson strike group, Geng Shuang, a spokesperson for the Chinese foreign ministry said that *China “[urged] the US to refrain from challenging China’s sovereignty and security and to respect regional countries’ efforts to maintain peace and stability in the South China Sea.”*
> 
> The most recent FONOP was carried out by the USS Decatur, an Arleigh Burke-class destroyer, on October 21, 2016, near China-occupied features in the Paracel Islands.



http://thediplomat.com/2017/02/us-carrier-strike-group-arrives-in-the-south-china-sea/

"Please don't do that."

Just as interestingly, all of this manoeuvring of the Carl Vinson is apparently being done "under the guns" of China and its "ship killing" ballistic missiles in the waters between China and the Phillipines, Taiwan and Japan.


----------



## GAP

I think NK will do something to provoke the US......awaiting the response.....


----------



## jollyjacktar

Lot's of interesting photos here from the "it's my grandpa's birthday" parade.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4413582/Thousands-North-Korean-troops-parade-Pyongyang.html?offset=72&max=100&jumpTo=comment-196828616#comment-196828616


----------



## Rifleman62

I wish I could get a hold of the National NK diet that keeps everyone, (but one), including the military, even the Generals & other favored ones who supposedly have first crack at food, skinny. Beats Weight Watchers, Jenny Craig etc. NK should market the diet to get millions in foreign currency.


----------



## jollyjacktar

Rifleman62 said:
			
		

> I wish I could get a hold of the National NK diet that keeps everyone, (but one), including the military, even the Generals & other favored ones who supposedly have first crack at food, skinny. Beats Weight Watchers, Jenny Craig etc. NK should market the diet to get millions in foreign currency.



Some of those bitches in fancy dresses sure have not missed too many meals by the looks of them, the men too.  That, or they're using the same diet techniques of Theresa Spence from Atawapiskat.


----------



## jollyjacktar

Reports are in that the missile suffered from Peenemunde Explotation and did a V2 alllll over the place.  Someone will have some spaining to do to Ricky Kim.  Don't envy that team meeting.   ;D

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/north-korea-missile-launch-attempt-fail-kim-jong-un-1.4072095

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4415314/North-Korea-attempts-launch-missile-fails.html


----------



## Jarnhamar

Tomahawks for Kim


----------



## SupersonicMax

How the US kicks the door down is going to be tricky.  You want to surprise them (Stealth) take out all of their ability to retaliate in South Korea/Japan/Guam/US (that's many well conceiled and protected ICBMs and Artillery pieces, airbases, airplanes, subs), and you want the initial attacks on those targets to be synchronized (you don't want them to be able to react to the initial attack by launch targetted weapons before they are attacked).

All that in the densest IADS the world has to offer.  I don't think TLAMS will do.

Difficult proposition indeed...


----------



## tomahawk6

SupersonicMax said:
			
		

> How the US kicks the door down is going to be tricky.  You want to surprise them (Stealth) take out all of their ability to retaliate in South Korea/Japan/Guam/US (that's many well conceiled and protected ICBMs and Artillery pieces, airbases, airplanes, subs), and you want the initial attacks on those targets to be synchronized (you don't want them to be able to react to the initial attack by launch targetted weapons before they are attacked).
> 
> All that in the densest IADS the world has to offer.  I don't think TLAMS will do.
> 
> Difficult proposition indeed...



At the time Saddam's air defenses were also in depth but a couple of Apache gunships took out the radar sites which opened a nice lane for the strike packages. In the case of the North I doubt they are ready for a PLA cross border invasion. All we really want to neutralize I think is the leadership and the launch sites.The Chinese could handle that for us and we wouldnt have to do much but play defense.


----------



## jollyjacktar

No wonder his missiles are shit, look at the craftsmanship.  ;D

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4416256/Are-Kim-Jong-s-missiles-FAKE.html


----------



## tomahawk6

The Vinson strike group is being followed by a Russian and Chinese intel ships.Pretty standard I think.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/chinese-russian-spy-vessels-us-064750794.html


----------



## MilEME09

SupersonicMax said:
			
		

> How the US kicks the door down is going to be tricky.  You want to surprise them (Stealth) take out all of their ability to retaliate in South Korea/Japan/Guam/US (that's many well conceiled and protected ICBMs and Artillery pieces, airbases, airplanes, subs), and you want the initial attacks on those targets to be synchronized (you don't want them to be able to react to the initial attack by launch targetted weapons before they are attacked).
> 
> All that in the densest IADS the world has to offer.  I don't think TLAMS will do.
> 
> Difficult proposition indeed...



Read on Tactical Shit this morning (not the best news source I know) that the Carriers Reagan and Nimitz are also on route to Korea. If Trump is trying to show of American Military might, three carriers off Korea would give a large air force to flex. On a Similar note the US still has 18 MOAB's in it's innovatory which reportedly expire next year, dropping those on the artillery sites threatening Soul might be an idea.


----------



## SupersonicMax

You need stealth to kick the door down, which none if the carriers have.  You sacrifice a lot of other ammo for 1 MOAB.  I would rather have 80 GBU-39 rather than 1 MOAB going against arty.


----------



## jmt18325

That's right - I'm no expert, but the MOAB was pretty much built for what it was recently used for in Afghanistan.  Also, I was under the impression that those expiry dates can be extended with inspections and component replacements.


----------



## Old Sweat

SupersonicMax said:
			
		

> You need stealth to kick the door down, which none if the carriers have.  You sacrifice a lot of other ammo for 1 MOAB.  I would rather have 80 GBU-39 rather than 1 MOAB going against arty.


My thought exactly. Given the lethal radius of a MOAB and the dispersed deployment of artillery, you could perhaps take out a battery or two with one device.


----------



## Kirkhill

SupersonicMax said:
			
		

> You need stealth to kick the door down, which none if the carriers have.  You sacrifice a lot of other ammo for 1 MOAB.  I would rather have 80 GBU-39 rather than 1 MOAB going against arty.



I'm guessing this doesn't come under the head of OpSec or even the Good Idea Fairy as it seems to have been widely disseminated.

http://www.military.com/daily-news/2017/01/10/first-marine-corps-f35-squadron-deploys-japan.html



> Military.com | 10 Jan 2017 | by Hope Hodge Seck
> The Marine Corps' first operational F-35B Joint Strike Fighter squadron is en route to Japan, where it will prepare for a wide-ranging deployment in the Pacific.
> 
> Marine Fighter Attack Squadron 121 departed its former headquarters at Marine Corps Air Station Yuma, Arizona, on Monday en route to its new base at MCAS Iwakuni, Japan, officials with 3rd Marine Aircraft Wing announced Tuesday.




http://www.businessinsider.com/us-marines-f-35-japan-hot-loading-adgr-2017-4



> *US Marines in Japan are pushing the F-35 to the limit*
> 
> Alex Lockie
> 
> US Marine aviators with the F-35B on its first-ever overseas deployment in Japan are training to push the Joint Strike Fighter to its limits while tensions in the Western Pacific reach their highest levels since World War II.
> 
> A report from Defense News revealed that the Marines are training on a variety of techniques that will enable them to fight, refuel, and reload from virtually anywhere.
> 
> In the event of war, when the US can count on a competent adversary to target its bases with a huge barrage of missiles, the Marines in Japan train for scenarios where they may have little time and space to operate out of.
> 
> The two techniques that will allow the Marines to bring the fight back to the enemy even with airstrips and supply lines devastated by missile fire are called "hot loading" and "aviation-delivered ground refueling."
> 
> Hot loading simply means that when an F-35 lands, without even turning the engines off, Marines can reload the bomb bays and the F-35 can turn around to fight again. The process saves time and wear and tear on the jet, according to Defense News.
> 
> The second techinque, as discussed in the Marine Corps new operating concept, allows F-35s to refuel from just about anywhere. Essentially, instead of going to a designated base that can be far from the front lines that also serves as a big bullseye to an adversary, planes can land on rough patches of land and lay pipe fuel to F-35s which can then return to combat.
> 
> This reduces the risk to airborne tankers, which China's new J-20 stealth fighter has been purpose-built to knock out.
> 
> The concept of fighting out from austere locations is one of the several ways the US military is addressing the "missile gap," or China and Russia's increasing ability to outrange US systems with extremely long range munitions. *Defense News also reports that the USS Wasp, a small aircraft carrier that can support about a dozen F-35s, will deploy to the Pacific*.
> 
> Additionally, the F-35B with its ability to take off in a short distance and land vertically lends itself ideally to fighting out of improvised bases and making a quick turnaround.




http://timesofsandiego.com/military/2016/10/24/navy-moving-uss-bonhomme-richard-san-diego-pacific-pivot/



> Navy Moving USS Bonhomme Richard to San Diego in Pacific Pivot
> POSTED BY CHRIS JENNEWEIN ON OCTOBER 24, 2016 IN MILITARY | 1199 VIEWS	| 0 COMMENTS | LEAVE A COMMENT
> 
> The Navy announced Monday it will move the amphibious assault ship USS Bonhomme Richard to San Diego as it relocates forces to focus on the Pacific region.
> 
> The Bonhomme Richard, currently forward deployed to Japan, will be replaced there by the USS Wasp, which is relocating from Norfolk. As a result, one more more amphibious assault ship will be based in the Pacific theater.
> 
> The Wasp has been modernized to support the new F-35B Joint Strike Fighter, and will host the first squadron of those Marine stealth jets in Japan.
> 
> The Bonhomme Richard, which is named for John Paul Jones’ famous Revolutionary War frigate, will be modernized while in San Diego.
> 
> The moves will take place in 2017, with specific timelines announced closer to the actual movement of the ships.
> 
> Amphibious assault ships are small aircraft carriers that support helicopters, vertical takeoff jets and tiltrotor aircraft. They lead amphibious groups carrying combat-ready Marines.



Together with the touted "Multiplier Effect" of the F35 on Legacy Aircraft formations.



> A Force Multiplier for Legacy Air Assets
> A core challenge to the introduction of the F-35 will not simply be to work with its own species, but to work with legacy aircraft, whether U.S. or allied. The new fighter clearly can force multiply legacy assets.
> 
> How will the F-35 work with legacy air assets and in an air-to-surface environment? The F-35 will make legacy aircraft around it more capable through its ability to process data in the air. Once processed, the data will be converted into a Link 16 message and transferred to legacy aircraft or surface teams.  At present, surface assets suffer from a significant bandwidth problem. The F-35’s processors can lend a hand by processing data and sending appropriate results to the ground forces.
> 
> The F-35 will also have a significant impact in organizing air combat operations.  The more recent aircraft, such as Eurofighter and upgraded F-15s and F-16s, are most easily organized for operations by the F-35. The older aircraft can also be organized more efficiently by the F-35’s processing and stealth capacities, as well as the ability to share this data in real-time. These efforts combined will shape more effective collaborative decision-making.
> 
> This capability will be rolled out as F-35 squadrons are added to the fleet.  Each new squadron will allow the F-35 to become a more significant player in shaping the operations of air and surface forces.  A way to think about the insertion of F-35s in the fleet is to conceptualize a sliding scale of capability. As F-35s supplant legacy aircraft, the fleet’s capability grows.  But most importantly, legacy fleets do not need to be completely replaced to see an effect; instead, the F-35 will provide an immediate, significant enhancement of overall fleet capabilities.
> 
> In short, the F-35 will enable today’s fleet to work more effectively on the day the aircraft is introduced in operational squadrons.  Air operations and air-surface integration will then be transformed as greater numbers are deployed in the U.S. Air Force, USMC, USN, and allied forces.  With a significant expansion of the interoperability of U.S. and coalition forces , overall capability for the U.S. and its allies will be enhanced.  The F-35 is a force multiplier on the first day it will be deployed.



http://www.sldinfo.com/the-f-35-and-legacy-aircraft-building-capability-one-squadron-at-a-time/

And its own capabilities



> “I flew a mission the other day where our four-ship formation of F-35As destroyed five surface-to-air threats in a 15-minute period without being targeted once,” said Maj. James Schmidt, a former A-10 pilot. “It’s pretty cool to come back from a mission where we flew right over threats knowing they could never see us.”



https://www.f35.com/news/detail/f-35a-stealth-brings-flexibility-to-battlespace


----------



## the 48th regulator

jollyjacktar said:
			
		

> No wonder his missiles are shit, look at the craftsmanship.  ;D
> 
> http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4416256/Are-Kim-Jong-s-missiles-FAKE.html



I read that article, but then this came across my feed today.  I am no expert in ICBMs or other types of missles, so hopefully the SMEs can explain.







dileas

tess


----------



## Kirkhill

the 48th regulator said:
			
		

> I read that article, but then this came across my feed today.  I am no expert in ICBMs or other types of missles, so hopefully the SMEs can explain.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> dileas
> 
> tess



I think you have it right Tess.

That offset looks familiar from old Warsaw Pact days.


----------



## Kirkhill

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S-200_(missile)

This Ukrainian museum piece seems to show the same canted nose cone.


----------



## blacktriangle

Umm so North Korea's new ICBM is really just an antiquated SA-5? I guess I could see that if the missile doesn't fly properly. SAM --> SSM


----------



## Retired AF Guy

jollyjacktar said:
			
		

> No wonder his missiles are crap, look at the craftsmanship.  ;D
> 
> http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4416256/Are-Kim-Jong-s-missiles-FAKE.html



Chris beat me to it, but here is another photo that shows the same booster rockets as those on the NK parade. On the other hand, its a SA-5 Gammon that was deployed 50 years ago, so I don't know how much of a threat it is.


----------



## tomahawk6

German experts feel the ICBM's on the giant transporters are fake. Just as some of you have noticed as well.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-17867174






1. The markings on each of the missiles are different. Some possibly show filling or draining valves for liquid propellant - inconsistent with other design features that suggest a solid fuelled system.

2. The missiles are not perfectly aligned to the launch table. This suggests it is hard to bolt the missile down in launch configuration.

3. Undulations in the surface metal of the warhead suggest thin sheeting over stringers or formers (supports) unlike the more substantial construction required of a real warhead.

Source: Markus Schiller, Robert H. Schmucker


----------



## jollyjacktar

Chris Pook said:
			
		

> I think you have it right Tess.
> 
> That offset looks familiar from old Warsaw Pact days.



In your later photo, Chris, you can see the offset on the closest booster too.  Missiles aren't my thing, didn't catch this before 48th and you did.
No doubt there's still plenty of shenanigans and fakery left over in their displays of military might.


----------



## jmt18325

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> German experts feel the ICBM's on the giant transporters are fake. Just as some of you have noticed as well.
> 
> http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-17867174
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 1. The markings on each of the missiles are different. Some possibly show filling or draining valves for liquid propellant - inconsistent with other design features that suggest a solid fuelled system.
> 
> 2. The missiles are not perfectly aligned to the launch table. This suggests it is hard to bolt the missile down in launch configuration.
> 
> 3. Undulations in the surface metal of the warhead suggest thin sheeting over stringers or formers (supports) unlike the more substantial construction required of a real warhead.
> 
> Source: Markus Schiller, Robert H. Schmucker



I wouldn't doubt that the missiles are fake, but that story is from 2012....


----------



## SupersonicMax

Even if the ones on parade were fake, it could be deception to make the world find out the parade missile were fake but have ready, real missile at some sites.


----------



## tomahawk6

The Navy has confirmed that the Vinson strike group had passed through the Sundra Straight en route to the waters off Korea.So they are 3500 miles away not very close at all.


----------



## Journeyman

SupersonicMax said:
			
		

> Even if the ones on parade were fake, it could be deception to make the world find out the parade missile were fake but have ready, real missile at some sites.


:stars:
Yes, some global leaders have a glowing track record for nuance.   :nod:


----------



## Kirkhill

I understand there is a problem with On Board Oxygen Generation Systems.


----------



## MarkOttawa

Total USN #fakenews balls-up:



> Despite talk of a military strike, Trump’s ‘armada’ actually sailed away from Korea
> 
> As tensions mounted on the Korean Peninsula, Adm. Harry Harris made a dramatic announcement: An aircraft carrier had been ordered to sail north from Singapore on April 8 toward the Western Pacific.
> 
> A spokesman for the U.S. Pacific Command, which Harris heads, linked the deployment directly to the “number one threat in the region,” North Korea, and its “reckless, irresponsible and destabilizing program of missile tests and pursuit of a nuclear weapons capability.”
> 
> Defense Secretary Jim Mattis told reporters on April 11 that the Carl Vinson was “on her way up there.” Asked about the deployment in an interview with Fox Business Network that aired April 12, President Trump said: “We are sending an armada, very powerful.”
> 
> U.S. media went into overdrive, and Fox reported on April 14 that the armada was “steaming” toward North Korea.
> 
> But pictures posted by the U.S. Navy suggest that’s not quite the case — or at least not yet.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> A photograph released by the Navy [ http://www.navy.mil/view_image.asp?id=235255 ] showed the aircraft carrier sailing through the calm waters of Sunda Strait between the Indonesian islands of Sumatra and Java on Saturday, April 15. By later in the day, it was in the Indian Ocean, according to Navy photographs.
> 
> In other words, on the same day that the world nervously watched North Korea stage a massive military parade to celebrate the birthday of the nation’s founder, Kim Il Sung, and the press speculated about a preemptive U.S. strike, the U.S. Navy put the Carl Vinson, together with its escort of two guided-missile destroyers and a cruiser, more than 3,000 miles southwest of the Korean Peninsula — and more than 500 miles southeast of Singapore.
> 
> Instead of steaming toward the Korea Peninsula, the carrier strike group was actually headed in the opposite direction to take part in “scheduled exercises with Australian forces in the Indian Ocean,” according to Defense News, which first reported the story [ http://www.defensenews.com/articles/us-carrier-still-thousands-of-miles-from-korea ].
> 
> Neither the Pacific Command nor the Pacific Fleet responded immediately to requests for comment...
> https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/despite-talk-of-a-military-strike-trumps-armada-was-a-long-way-from-korea/2017/04/18/e8ef4237-e26a-4cfc-b5e9-526c3a17bd41_story.html



The lost armada or something.  Yikes.

Mark 
Ottawa


----------



## jollyjacktar

Should have taken that left turn at Albuquerque, Doc.


----------



## a_majoor

An interesting speech the Chinese have allowed to be published:

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/18/world/asia/china-north-korea-war.html?_r=0



> *Criticism of Beijing’s North Korea Policy Comes From Unlikely Place: China*
> By CHRIS BUCKLEYAPRIL 18, 2017
> 
> BEIJING — When China’s best-known historian of the Korean War, Shen Zhihua, recently laid out his views on North Korea, astonishment rippled through the audience. China, he said with a bluntness that is rare here, had fundamentally botched its policy on the divided Korean Peninsula.
> 
> China’s bond with North Korea’s Communist leaders formed even before Mao Zedong’s decision in 1950 to send People’s Liberation Army soldiers to fight alongside them in the Korean War. Mao famously said the two sides were “as close as lips and teeth.”
> 
> But China should abandon the stale myths of fraternity that have propped up its support for North Korea and turn to South Korea, Mr. Shen said at a university lecture last month in Dalian, a northeastern Chinese port city.
> 
> “Judging by the current situation, North Korea is China’s latent enemy and South Korea could be China’s friend,” Mr. Shen said, according to a transcript he published online. “We must see clearly that China and North Korea are no longer brothers in arms, and in the short term there’s no possibility of an improvement in Chinese-North Korean relations.”
> 
> Excerpts From a Chinese Historian’s Speech on North Korea APRIL 18, 2017
> 
> The speech was a strikingly bold public challenge to Chinese policy, which remains unwilling to risk a break with North Korea even as its nuclear program raises tensions in northeast Asia and beyond. The controversy over Mr. Shen’s views in China has distilled a renewed debate about whether the government should abandon its longstanding patronage of North Korea.
> 
> China’s “traditionalist view that views the U.S. as a much greater threat than North Korea is deeply entrenched,” Bonnie S. Glaser, an expert on Chinese foreign policy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said in an email. “But the proponents of change are vocal, too. They argue that North Korea is a growing liability.”
> 
> For decades, China has tried to preserve ties with North Korea as a partner and strategic shield in northeast Asia, even when the North’s leaders became testy and unpredictable. In recent years, though, China has also tried to soothe the United States, build political and business ties with South Korea and help rein in North Korea’s nuclear weapons program.
> 
> But as North Korea has improved its missiles and nuclear warheads, opening the possibility that it could one day strike the continental United States, China’s go-between approach has become increasingly fraught.
> 
> North Korea did not hold a nuclear test over the weekend that some had expected, and its missile test on Sunday fizzled. But more tests and launches appear to be only a matter of time, and the Trump administration has pressed China’s president, Xi Jinping, to use much tougher pressure on its neighbor.
> 
> “The era of strategic patience is over,” Vice President Mike Pence said in South Korea on Monday.
> 
> “The president and I have a great confidence that China will properly deal with North Korea,” he told reporters, but “if China is unable to deal with North Korea, the United States and our allies will.”
> 
> China suspended coal imports from North Korea in February, cutting off a major source of revenue for the North. But China has resisted choking off trade with North Korea, and debate over how to balance Pyongyang, Seoul and Washington has sharpened and become more fractious. Trying to stay friends with all sides is proving perilous.
> 
> The Chinese government has fiercely objected to an American antimissile defense system, called the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or Thaad, being installed in South Korea, fearing it could be used to spy on China. But some Chinese experts have criticized the surge of anti-South Korean anger unleashed by Beijing as counterproductive.
> 
> Global Times, a state-run newspaper that often defends Chinese government policy,  cautioned last week that North Korea would face harsher sanctions if it went ahead with another nuclear test. On Monday, the paper redoubled that warning, calling for China to choke off most oil supplies to North Korea if there was another test.
> 
> Mr. Shen has gone much further than other scholars in calling for a reset.
> 
> “The fundamental interests of China and North Korea are at odds,” he said in his lecture. “China’s fundamental interest lies in achieving a stability on its borders and developing outward. But since North Korea acquired nuclear weapons, that periphery has never been stable, so inevitably Chinese and North Korean interests are at odds.”
> 
> He derided China’s opposition to the Thaad antimissile system as shrill and self-defeating, needlessly alienating South Korean opinion. “What we’ve done is exactly what the Americans and North Koreans would like to see,” he said.
> 
> Mr. Shen’s views have incensed Chinese ultranationalists, who have accused him of selling out the country’s ally in Pyongyang. His views and the debate about them have not been reported in Chinese state news media.
> 
> But Mr. Shen’s speech remains on the website of the Cold War history research center at East China Normal University in Shanghai, where he works. He has also restated his views at lectures in Shanghai and, last week, in Xi’an in northwest China, he said.
> 
> In the past, articles in China critical of North Korea have been quickly censored. In 2004, an influential Chinese policy magazine was closed down after it published an essay critical of North Korea. In 2013, an editor at a Communist Party journal in Beijing was shunted from his job for publicly proposing that China withdraw support for North Korea.
> 
> Mr. Shen said the tolerance — so far — for his views suggested that the government might be willing to tolerate greater criticism of North Korea and debate about the relationship.
> 
> “Many people have asked me, ‘Teacher Shen, why hasn’t your speech been taken down?’” Mr. Shen said in a telephone interview from Shanghai.
> 
> “At least it shows that there can be different views about the North Korea issue. It’s up to the center to set policy, but at least you can air different views in public, whereas before you couldn’t,” he said. The “center” refers to China’s central leadership.
> 
> Still, Ms. Glaser said, President Xi appears unlikely to turn entirely on North Korea.
> 
> After a meeting with Mr. Xi, President Trump said his Chinese counterpart seemed willing to press Pyongyang. But China has balanced its criticisms of North Korea by pressing the United States to agree to prompt negotiations with the North and suspend major military exercises with the South.
> 
> In South Korea on Monday, Vice President Pence held out the possibility of opening talks with the North Koreans, noting that Washington was seeking security “through peaceable means, through negotiations.”
> 
> His office added that any talks would include Japan, South Korea, other allies in the region and China.
> 
> Mr. Shen, 66, is well known in China and is often cited for his groundbreaking studies on the outbreak of the Korean War that used archival records to expose the tensions and miscalculations behind Mao’s decision to send troops.
> 
> He is the son of Communist Party officials and previously used his earnings from business to pay for dredging archives in Russia, after serving a two-year prison term on a charge of leaking state secrets that he insisted was groundless.
> 
> He said he hoped that his research, including a new history of Chinese-North Korean relations that he hopes will appear in English this year, would dismantle deceptive myths that have grown up in China around that past.
> 
> “It’s very hard for China to adjust relations,” he said. “If everyone understands the truth and this myth is burst, then there’ll be a basis among the public and officials for adjusting policy.”
> 
> But Mr. Shen acknowledged that shifting direction on North Korea would carry risks. If political cooperation between Beijing and Washington fails to constrain North Korea, he said, the two governments should cooperate in a military response.
> 
> “If North Korea really does master nuclear weapons and their delivery, then the whole world will have to prostrate itself at the feet of North Korea,” he said in the interview. “The longer this drags out, the better it is for North Korea.”
> 
> Choe Sang-Hun contributed reporting from Seoul, South Korea.


----------



## tomahawk6

Perhaps the USN doesnt want the North Koreans to know exactly where the Vinson is. I suspect its all part of the psyops campaign. Chinese troops are arrayed on the border or maybe not. Keep the bad guys guessing. 

http://www.globalresearch.ca/trumps-rage-for-war-making-three-us-aircraft-carrier-strike-groups-deployed-to-korean-peninsula-waters/5585685


----------



## jmt18325

Global Research?  Really?


----------



## Rifleman62

I wonder when Canadians and the Liberal government are going to wake up to this threat?


----------



## jmt18325

Rifleman62 said:
			
		

> I wonder when Canadians and the Liberal government are going to wake up to this threat?



What is it that the government and Canadians should be doing, exactly?  I kind of feel at this point that we've been sold a blustery bill of goods by the Trump administration.  Maybe there's a larger plan?  We'll have to wait and see.


----------



## QV

jmt18325 said:
			
		

> What is it that the government and Canadians should be doing, exactly? ....



2% GDP defence spending would be a good start.  But since that is not the case Canada can't do anything except quietly piss and moan from the sidelines.


----------



## Rifleman62

jmt18325: 





> What is it that the government and Canadians should be doing, exactly?



Well jmt18325, this is NOT a good start. The PM is an embarrassment. Certainly not Churchillian by any measure.

Loachman's post Re: Politics in 2017
« Reply #473 on: April 13, 2017, 23:54:52 »




> Bombard's Body Language: Justin Trudeau On North Korea https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nvG1uzfwHbk
> 
> She's done a couple of assessments of PM Selfie's appearances before, and I've posted the links. I find them accurate and painfully humorous


----------



## The Bread Guy

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> Perhaps the USN doesnt want the North Koreans to know exactly where the Vinson is. I suspect its all part of the psyops campaign. Chinese troops are arrayed on the border or maybe not. Keep the bad guys guessing.
> 
> http://www.*globalresearch.ca*/trumps-rage-for-war-making-three-us-aircraft-carrier-strike-groups-deployed-to-korean-peninsula-waters/5585685


Agree with your premise in orange 100%, but you can do better than this as a source, no? 


			
				Rifleman62 said:
			
		

> ... this is NOT a good start. The PM is an embarrassment. Certainly not Churchillian by any measure ...


"I know what he SHOULDN'T be doing" isn't exactly the same as offering up options on what he SHOULD be doing - other than "waking up to this threat".  #AdHominem


			
				QV said:
			
		

> 2% GDP defence spending would be a good start.


Then what?

Meanwhile ...

_*"‘The sword stands ready’: On aircraft carrier deck, Pence reiterates U.S. pledge to defend Japan"*_
_*"North Korea drops nuclear bomb on US in disturbing propaganda video"*_


----------



## MarkOttawa

Pretty confident the Chinese, Russians (and quite a few others) had through various intelligence sources and methods a very good idea of the USS Carl Vinson's position and track--and likely both would have let Norks know it was nowhere near the peninsula in order to reduce risks.

Mark
Ottawa


----------



## MarkOttawa

Letter of mine sent to the _Globe and Mail_ April 16 and not published:



> The story "Amid fear of war, Trump has military targets in North Korea, but also risks" (April 15 [ http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/amid-fear-of-war-trump-has-military-targets-in-north-korea-but-also-risks/article34712698/ ]) states that the U.S. has sent "...an aircraft carrier group toward the Korean peninsula that Mr. Trump called an 'armada' supplemented by nuclear-equipped submarines ["nuclear-equipped" was later deleted in online version]."  But President Trump did not mention submarines with nuclear weapons; he simply called the vessels "very powerful".
> 
> US Navy carrier strike groups are in fact normally escorted by one or two attack submarines (SSNs, nuclear-powered but not carrying nuclear weapons--those are now carried just by ballistic missile subs, SSBNs).  The Tomahawk land-attack cruise missiles deployed on the attack subs have not had a nuclear role for several years and their warheads are now only conventional.
> 
> There is no need for your story to stoke further fears about a dangerous situation by adding an unwarranted nuclear weapons angle.
> 
> References:
> http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2017/03/21/0200000000AEN20170321009551315.html
> 
> http://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/5/21/868545/-
> 
> http:/www.nti.org/analysis/articles/united-states-submarine-capabilities/
> 
> https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile/tomahawk/
> "The Tomahawk is an intermediate range, subsonic cruise missile that is launched from U.S. Navy ships and submarines. It provides a long-range, deep strike capability. The Tomahawk can carry either conventional or nuclear payloads, though policy decisions have phased out their nuclear role..."
> 
> https://fas.org/blogs/security/2013/03/tomahawk/
> "Although the U.S. Navy has yet to make a formal announcement that the nuclear Tomahawk land-attack cruise missile (TLAM/N) has been retired, a new updated navy instruction shows that the weapon is gone...[2013]"



Mark
Ottawa


----------



## Kirkhill

Useful Mark.

You probably could have mentioned the USS OHIO SSGN 726 and her three sisters, each with 154 Tomahawks (3x the Syrian strike in each one)

http://www.csp.navy.mil/ohio/About/

And the rest of the Pacific Submarine Fleet

http://www.csp.navy.mil/subpac-commands/


----------



## Journeyman

MarkOttawa said:
			
		

> There is no need for your story to stoke further fears about a dangerous situation by adding an unwarranted nuclear weapons angle.


Well, it's pretty obvious why it wasn't published....you....you *fact* user!


----------



## MarkOttawa

Chris Pook: 

;D #Fakenews everywhere!

Mark
Ottawa


----------



## Kirkhill

Awww, C'mon Mark!  If you can't trust the Gummint who can you trust?


----------



## jmt18325

Rifleman62 said:
			
		

> Well jmt18325, this is NOT a good start. The PM is an embarrassment.



That is an assessment that certainly isn't universally shared.  I don't really care what she thinks about his body language.

So I ask again - what is it that Canada and Canadians should be doing, other than looking scary to appease someone who reads body language?


----------



## Kirkhill

jmt18325 said:
			
		

> That is an assessment that certainly isn't universally shared.  I don't really care what she thinks about his body language.
> 
> So I ask again - what is it that Canada and Canadians should be doing, other than looking scary to appease someone who reads body language?



Supplying more ships at sea to police the sea lanes to free up USN assets for confrontations with the likes of Syria and North Korea.  (Confrontation, like judgmental and discriminating is not a bad word).
Providing more Logistics capability, prepositioned afloat, airborne and on shore to be able to respond effectively to crises, humanitarian or military.
Providing more air/anti-air capability to provide cover for less wealthy friends in situations of greater risk than ourselves.
Providing more ISR capabilities for situational awareness at home and abroad.
Provide more combat capability to provide protection for any and all of the above deployed abroad.

In short, being a rich country that benefits from a secure world, putting some of that money towards the maintenance of that secure world.  The standard premium is 2.7% of GDP (minimum).


----------



## MilEME09

Chris Pook said:
			
		

> Supplying more ships at sea to police the sea lanes to free up USN assets for confrontations with the likes of Syria and North Korea.  (Confrontation, like judgmental and discriminating is not a bad word).
> Providing more Logistics capability, prepositioned afloat, airborne and on shore to be able to respond effectively to crises, humanitarian or military.
> Providing more air/anti-air capability to provide cover for less wealthy friends in situations of greater risk than ourselves.
> Providing more ISR capabilities for situational awareness at home and abroad.
> Provide more combat capability to provide protection for any and all of the above deployed abroad.
> 
> In short, being a rich country that benefits from a secure world, putting some of that money towards the maintenance of that secure world.  The standard premium is 2.7% of GDP (minimum).



Example here, Send a Squadron of Hornets to Okinawa, freeing up American pilots and air craft to be used in any confrontation with North Korea, Naval assets can take over American patrols in the Pacific. Plenty we can do as a military to support the US military, Given Chinese financial assets in Canada, we could probably also put pressure on China as well to do something about NK.


----------



## QV

I doubt Canada could send a full squadron anywhere without severely impacting operations within our own country.  (I could be wrong here but...not by much I bet).  We can't really contribute a whole helluva lot in our current state.  So anything meaningful will need to begin with a huge increase in the defence budget and rebuilding and reshaping the CAF (including a c2 rethink) to meet Canada's needs now and in to the future.  My sense is tha CAF is currently struggling to stay afloat.  Until then Canada can meekly complain from the sidelines or at best be a resource base for US/UK and the rest of NATO.


----------



## Kirkhill

QV said:
			
		

> I doubt Canada could send a full squadron anywhere without severely impacting operations within our own country.  (I could be wrong here but...not by much I bet).  We can't really contribute a whole helluva lot in our current state.  So anything meaningful will need to begin with a huge increase in the defence budget and rebuilding and reshaping the CAF (including a c2 rethink) to meet Canada's needs now and in to the future.  My sense is tha CAF is currently struggling to stay afloat.  Until then Canada can meekly complain from the sidelines or at best be a resource base for US/UK and the rest of NATO.



QV, I agree.   My point is that there is a rationale for upping our "intervention budget" from the 1.1% currently (0.9% on defence and 0.2% on aid) to 2.7%.  The rationale is sound on moral grounds (see above) and more importantly it is contracted for (unless we assume that "agreements" are understood the same way that Bill Clinton understands "sex").


----------



## QV

Chris we are pitching from the same mound.  I agree on all your points.  I was referring to MilEME09 where he said "plenty we can do as a military..." - I took that to mean in our present state.


----------



## Kirkhill

QV said:
			
		

> Chris we are pitching from the same mound.  I agree on all your points.  I was referring to MilEME09 where he said "plenty we can do as a military..." - I took that to mean in our present state.



Seen QV.  Sorry.


----------



## Rifleman62

> Chris Pook:
> 
> Supplying more ships at sea to police the sea lanes to free up USN assets for confrontations with the likes of Syria and North Korea.  (Confrontation, like judgmental and discriminating is not a bad word).
> Providing more Logistics capability, prepositioned afloat, airborne and on shore to be able to respond effectively to crises, humanitarian or military.
> Providing more air/anti-air capability to provide cover for less wealthy friends in situations of greater risk than ourselves.
> Providing more ISR capabilities for situational awareness at home and abroad.
> Provide more combat capability to provide protection for any and all of the above deployed abroad.
> 
> In short, being a rich country that benefits from a secure world, putting some of that money towards the maintenance of that secure world.  The standard premium is 2.7% of GDP (minimum).
> 
> 
> MilEME09: Example here, Send a Squadron of Hornets to Okinawa, freeing up American pilots and air craft to be used in any confrontation with North Korea, Naval assets can take over American patrols in the Pacific. Plenty we can do as a military to support the US military, Given Chinese financial assets in Canada, we could probably also put pressure on China as well to do something about NK



But we are a mooch. Instead of doing our share of NORAD/NATO or doing more as above to assist our largest trading partner, number one defence partner, we would rather mooch and squeal.


----------



## jmt18325

Chris Pook said:
			
		

> Supplying more ships at sea to police the sea lanes to free up USN assets for confrontations with the likes of Syria and North Korea.  (Confrontation, like judgmental and discriminating is not a bad word).
> Providing more Logistics capability, prepositioned afloat, airborne and on shore to be able to respond effectively to crises, humanitarian or military.
> Providing more air/anti-air capability to provide cover for less wealthy friends in situations of greater risk than ourselves.
> Providing more ISR capabilities for situational awareness at home and abroad.
> Provide more combat capability to provide protection for any and all of the above deployed abroad.
> 
> In short, being a rich country that benefits from a secure world, putting some of that money towards the maintenance of that secure world.  The standard premium is 2.7% of GDP (minimum).



The standard premium is far from 2.7% of GDP.  How do I know that - because almost no one is paying that.


----------



## Kirkhill

Then we shouldn't have signed on the dotted line.

Just because nobody else is living up to their word then we don't have to live up to ours.  Understood.

Trump sounds quite justified if he decides to renege on Obama's Paris signature.


----------



## MilEME09

The last time our signature meant something Pearson was PM

Sent from my LG-D852 using Tapatalk


----------



## the 48th regulator

MilEME09 said:
			
		

> The last time our signature meant something Pearson was PM
> 
> Sent from my LG-D852 using Tapatalk



Actually no,

Canada has always been relevent in global situations, ya the whole Peacekeeping schtick and all.. 

That has been right up until our current Government.  I won't let you caste away Canada's significance that easily. 

dileas

tess


----------



## MilEME09

the 48th regulator said:
			
		

> Actually no,
> 
> Canada has always been relevent in global situations, ya the whole Peacekeeping schtick and all..
> 
> That has been right up until our current Government.  I won't let you caste away Canada's significance that easily.
> 
> dileas
> 
> tess



I wouldn't go that far, I'd say it was the Chretien years, who remembers The Kyoto protocol?


----------



## The Bread Guy

Good overview of the latest from Reuters wire service, shared under the Fair Use provisions of the Copyright Act ...


> *South Korea on heightened alert as North readies for army anniversary*
> 
> By Ju-min Park and Ben Blanchard | SEOUL/BEIJING
> 
> South Korea said on Friday it was on heightened alert ahead of another important anniversary in North Korea, with a large concentration of military hardware amassed on both sides of the border amid concerns about a new nuclear test by Pyongyang.
> 
> North Korea said late on Friday the state of affairs on the Korean peninsula was "extremely perilous" because of "madcap American nuclear war manoeuvres aimed at trampling on our sovereignty and right to survival."
> 
> U.S. officials said there was a higher-than-usual level of activity by Chinese bombers, signalling a possible heightened state of readiness by reclusive North Korea's sole major ally, although the officials played down concern and left open a range of possible reasons. Beijing denied its aircraft were on an increased level of alert.
> 
> In Russia, the RIA news agency said a Kremlin spokesman declined to comment on media reports Russia was moving military hardware and troops towards the border with North Korea.
> 
> U.S. and South Korean officials have been saying for weeks that the North could soon stage another nuclear test in violation of United Nations sanctions, something both the United States and China have warned against.
> 
> North Korea marks the 85th anniversary of the foundation of its Korean People's Army on Tuesday, an important anniversary that comes at the end of major winter military drills, South Korea's Unification Ministry spokesman Lee Duk-haeng said.
> 
> Top envoys from the United States, South Korea and Japan are due to meet on Tuesday, South Korea's foreign ministry said, to "discuss plans to rein in North Korea's additional high-strength provocations, to maximize pressure on the North, and to ensure China's constructive role in resolving the North Korea nuclear issue".
> 
> South Korea and the United States have also been conducting annual joint military exercises, which the North routinely criticises as a prelude to invasion.
> 
> "It is a situation where a lot of exercise equipment is amassed in North Korea and also a lot of strategic assets are situated on the Korean peninsula because of the South Korea-U.S. military drills," Lee told a briefing.
> 
> "We are closely watching the situation and will not be letting our guards down."
> 
> U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday praised Chinese efforts to rein in "the menace of North Korea", after North Korean state media warned the United States of a "super-mighty preemptive strike".
> 
> U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said on Friday North Korea's rhetoric was provocative but he had learned not to trust it.
> 
> _"UNUSUAL MOVES"_
> 
> The North's foreign ministry said in a statement that its military was ready to respond to American aggression.
> 
> "Now that we possess mighty nuclear power to protect ourselves from U.S. nuclear threat, we will respond without the slightest hesitation to full-out war with full-out war and to nuclear war with our style of nuclear strike, and we will emerge victor in the final battle with the United States."
> 
> In a tweet, Trump said: "China is very much the economic lifeline to North Korea so, while nothing is easy, if they want to solve the North Korean problem, they will."
> 
> The president told a news conference "some very unusual moves have been made over the last two or three hours", and that he was confident Chinese President Xi Jinping would "try very hard" to pressure North Korea over its nuclear and missile programmes.
> 
> Trump gave no indication of what the moves might be. None of the U.S. officials who told Reuters about the heightened level of activity by Chinese bombers suggested alarm or signalled that they knew the precise reason for such activity.
> 
> China's Defence Ministry said its forces on the border with North Korea were maintaining a state of normal combat preparedness and training.
> 
> Asked earlier about Trump's comments, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang said Xi and Trump had had a full and deep discussion about North Korea when they met this month.
> 
> "I can only say that via deep communications between China and the U.S. at various levels including at the highest levels, the U.S. now has an even fuller and more correct understanding of China's policy and position and has a more rounded understanding of China's efforts," Lu said. "We feel very gratified about this."
> 
> An official Chinese newspaper said there was optimism about persuading the North to end its pursuit of a nuclear programme without the use of force, "now that even the once tough-talking Donald Trump is onboard for a peaceful solution".
> 
> "Beijing has demonstrated due enthusiasm for Washington's newfound interest in a diplomatic solution and willingness to work more closely with it," the state-run China Daily said in an editorial.
> 
> In Russia's Far East, some media have cited residents as saying they have seen military hardware being moved towards North Korea, but Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said deployment of Russian troops inside Russia was not a public matter.
> 
> Tensions have risen sharply in recent months after North Korea conducted two nuclear weapons tests last year and carried out a steady stream of ballistic missile tests. Trump has vowed to prevent North Korea from being able to hit the United States with a nuclear missile.
> 
> _"RED LINE"_
> 
> North Korea has said it will test missiles when it sees fit and a South Korean analyst said he believed the country would do so.
> 
> "Without crossing the red line such as a nuclear test or a test launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile, until the April 25 anniversary of the Korean People's Army, North Korea is expected to continue to launch mid-range missiles," said Cheong Seong-chang, a senior research fellow at Sejong Institute outside Seoul.
> 
> The joint U.S.-South Korea military exercises are due to finish at the end of April.
> 
> A U.S. aircraft carrier strike group, led by the USS Carl Vinson, is heading towards the Korean Peninsula, Trump's administration has said.
> 
> North Korea test-fired what the United States believed was a mid-range missile on Sunday. It blew up almost immediately.
> 
> The failed launch came a day after the 105th anniversary of the birth of North Korea’s founding father, Kim Il Sung, the current leader's grandfather.
> 
> There is concern the North will use the next big day on its calendar, April 25, to show off its strength.
> 
> "Although North Korea attempted a missile launch but failed on April 16, considering the April 25 anniversary of the Korean People's Army, there are concerns that it can make another provocation again at any time," South Korea's acting president Hwang Kyo-ahn told top officials on Thursday.
> 
> He called on the military to maintain readiness.
> 
> _(Addtional reporting by Polina Devitt in MOSCOW, Idrees Ali in TEL AVIV; Writing by Jack Kim; Editing by Robert Birsel and Alex Richardson)_


----------



## a_majoor

Canada might be in for a very rude awakening.

We have 3 lines of operation going right now (Latvia, Ukraine and Iraq) along with contemplation of a symbolic but resource intensive Blue Beret mission in Africa, with a government determined to keep spending constant or even cut it.

At the same time we have:

Non traditional threats requiring far different enablers growing, even in the areas we are operating in now.
New threats in the Pacific, which don't even seem to be on Ottawa's radar.
A US administration demanding Alliance partners take up their share of defense spending.
A growing threat of disruptive activities to attacks on civilians and infrastructure at home as part of the global terrorist threat.

Of course a mad rush to make up these deficiencies is going to be expensive and counter productive, but without a steady and incremental improvement in various capabilities and investment in new capabilities, we are lacking in options now, unprepared for the future and in grave danger of being outflanked or otherwise rendered irrelevant when things go south. And this can take all kinds of forms, from being frozen out of higher level decision making to discovering trade agreements and economic plans we had taken for granted are suddenly on the bargaining table.


----------



## GAP

https://www.navytimes.com/articles/carried-away-the-inside-story-of-how-the-carl-vinsons-canceled-port-visit-sparked-a-global-crisis
Carried away: The inside story of how the Carl Vinson's canceled port visit sparked a global crisis
By: David B. Larter, April 23, 2017 
In early April, officials at U.S. Pacific Command were developing plans to respond to a sharp rise in tensions with North Korea. Defense Secretary James Mattis ordered PACOM Commander Adm. Harry Harris to come up with “robust and sustainable” options for North Korea if President Trump ordered a strike on the rogue regime, according to four defense officials who spoke on background.

Harris was traveling in Washington away from his Hawaii base of operations, something that he dislikes because, in his view, something always seems to happen when he’s not in his office. At one point that week, top PACOM officials called Harris to recommend that Vinson cancel its upcoming trip to Australia and make its way back to the waters near North Korea where the carrier had just been in March, thus serving as one of the responses to Mattis’s directive that they explore military options for the Trump administration.

The plan was to truncate a secretive exercise with the Australians near Indonesia, to cancel Vinson’s visit to Perth and then head the direction of the Korean Peninsula — meaning Vinson would be off North Korea by the end of the month.

Changing an aircraft carrier’s schedule is not a small muscle movement. Host nations expecting a visit from the mighty U.S. big decks have to do a fair amount of leg work to prepare for the visit. Furthermore, a good number of sailors had family flying out to Australia to meet their sailors. An Australia port visit is the holy grail for sailors on a Western Pacific deployment.

The easiest thing to do, PACOM officials decided, would be send out a press release announcing the canceled port visit — making it easier for families to get their money back from airlines and letting all parties know why the Vinson wouldn’t be visiting the Land Down Under.

And it would have another effect: it would put North Korea on notice by announcing the plans in a press release, which included language that not-so-subtly dropped that Harris had “directed the Carl Vinson Strike Group to sail north and report on station in the western Pacific Ocean after departing Singapore April, 8,” roughly the direction North Korea lies from Singapore. A press release, PACOM officials thought, was the perfect solution to wrap up all the loose ends from the carrier’s schedule change. 

Sending the release with the thinly veiled language would be a message to North Korea and nervous allies alike: The Navy’s big guns were on the way so behave accordingly.

“A press release was really the only option,” one official said.

But that’s when things went haywire.

Over the course of 10 days, a series of gaffes and missteps throughout the entire national security structure to its highest levels would raise the specter of a nuclear showdown, send the U.S. and Chinese governments into crisis mode, and expose alarming communication deficiencies within the American military at large. The breakdown fueled a war frenzy at major newspapers and networks, running with the narrative that Trump was diverting the carrier personally to send a message, outlandish claims made without checking for facts until the crisis rhetoric had spun out of control.

This behind-the-scenes account is based on interviews with nearly a dozen defense officials in Washington, and in the Pacific, all of whom spoke to Navy Times on the condition of anonymity to relay in candid terms how the carrier's movement blew up from a routine Navy operation to a full-on crisis.

The war drums began beating on April 8, the day a press release came out from U.S. 3rd Fleet announcing the carrier’s move. U.S. 3rd Fleet has operational control of Vinson during its tour of the Pacific. But two hours before the 3rd Fleet's press statement hit the streets, Reuters news agency published a story that said the Vinson Strike Group, which was visiting Singapore at the time, would proceed from there to the waters off North Korea to send a message to the rogue Korean regime, which is poised to detonate the country’s sixth nuclear bomb test.

The Reuters story, followed by the unusual move from the Navy of discussing ship movements, created an initial flurry of press reports and speculation. Coming just two days after Trump’s surprising and widely praised decision to strike the Assad regime in Syria for its chemical attack on Syrian civilians, speculation swirled that the president was feeling emboldened. Maybe Korean leader Kim Jong Un would be the next recipient of a Trump-ordered barrage of cruise missiles.

Meanwhile, the Vinson and its escorts were not heading north. They were moving in the opposite direction, belying the conjecture that a strike on North Korea was imminent.

Nevertheless, by April 9, breathless news reports were proliferating through the press, including Navy Times. CNN and the other networks were beginning to get on a war footing. The New York Times claimed that “Rerouting the naval armada is President Trump’s latest escalation in force against a potential adversary,” although Trump doesn’t appear to have had anything to do with the order at all.

“The media just went nuts,” one source with close knowledge of the situation said.

When asked about the Vinson’s movement during an appearance on Fox News, Army Gen. H. R. McMaster, President Trump’s national security advisor, said the step was “prudent” and went on to state the commitment by the U.S. to getting nuclear weapons off the Korean Peninsula.

McMaster seemed to be saying that Harris’s move was a logical one under the broader guidance from Mattis and Trump's team on the National Security Council to draw up military options for North Korea. But the interview was the first in a string of missed opportunities for senior defense officials to correct the record on what Vinson was doing. Instead, everyone from McMaster and Mattis to the president himself inaccurately stated what Vinson's intentions were. 

It was at this early phase when things could have been corrected with an additional release from PACOM, according to defense officials who spoke to Navy Times, an assessment many experts agreed with.

It would have been a quick and easy fix if the military had simply sent out a press release detailing Vinson’s plans and clarifying the initial release, said Bryan Clark, retired Navy officer who was a senior aide to former Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Jon Greenert and analyst with the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. A flawed narrative might have been stopped in its tracks and prevented rattling a region on the brink of conflict, he said.

“It’s really shocking that they let this go for nearly two weeks without trying to correct the record,” he said.


----------



## Rifleman62

Several news items of which the subject of the meetings may also include NK:

Fox News report the meeting is being held under tight security, snipers (NZ SAS?) in a remote area. Note also UN Security Council meeting at the WH today and lunch with the President during the briefings.

http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/political/329345/pm-confirms-'five-eyes'-conference-in-queenstown 24 Apr 17

*
Prime Minister Bill English has confirmed a meeting of the 'Five Eyes' intelligence group is being held in New Zealand this week.*

Bill EnglishPM Bill English Photo: RNZ

The meeting of intelligence leaders from the United States, the United Kingdom, *Canada*, Australia and New Zealand is being held in Arrowtown.

There has been increased security in Queenstown and a private jet that has been linked to the American CIA landed at Wellington Airport on Friday.

Among those understood to be attending are the FBI director James Comey and the CIA director Mike Pompeo.

Mr English told Morning Report that Chris Finlayson, the Minister responsible for the SIS and the GCSB, was attending the conference.

"One of the regular conferences that they have, we work with the other four countries, combating terrorism, protecting our citizens around the world. So it's an arrangement that works well for New Zealand."

Mr English will attend a dinner at the conference.

He declined to say what specific issues were on the agenda.

Watch Bill English on Morning Report at link.


http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/04/24/entire-senate-being-called-to-white-house-for-north-korea-briefing.html
*
Entire Senate being called to White House for North Korea briefing* Published April 24, 2017 

The entire U.S. Senate has been invited to the White House for a briefing Wednesday on the North Korea situation, amid escalating tensions over the country’s missile tests and bellicose rhetoric.

White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer confirmed the upcoming briefing, for all 100 senators, on Monday.

Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Joseph Dunford and Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats plan to provide the update to lawmakers.

It is rare for the entire Senate to be invited to such a briefing. 

Spicer clarified that while the event will take place on the White House campus, it is technically a Senate briefing and Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., is the one who convened it.

The briefing, first reported by Reuters, was confirmed after President Trump earlier spoke to the leaders of both China and Japan.

Trump spoke by phone with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

Xi told Trump that China strongly opposed North Korea’s nuclear weapons program and hoped “all parties will exercise restraint and avoid aggravating the situation,” according to Chinese broadcaster CCTV. Trump hopes China could increase pressure on its isolated ally instead of using military options or trying to overthrow Kim Jong Un’s regime.

Trump and Abe agreed to urge North Korea to refrain from provocative actions.

Meanwhile, U.S. commercial satellite images indicated increased activity around North Korea’s nuclear test site, while Kim has said that the country’s preparation for an ICBM launch is in its “final stage.”

South Korea’s Defense Ministry has said the North appears ready to conduct such "strategic provocations" at any time. South Korean Acting Prime Minister Hwang Kyo-ahn has instructed his military to strengthen its "immediate response posture" in case North Korea does something significant on the April 25 anniversary of its military. North Korea often marks significant dates by displaying military capability.

*On Monday, Trump also had lunch with ambassadors of countries on the U.N. Security Council. Ahead of the meeting, Trump called for “big reforms” at the U.N. and criticizing its handling of recent events in Syria and North Korea – but said it has “tremendous potential.”*

"You just don't see the United Nations, like, solving conflicts. I think that's going to start happening now," he said. 

Fox News’ Mike Emanuel and The Associated Press contributed to this report.


----------



## Kirkhill

And in the same vein:



> President Trump to host unusual meeting with UN Security Council
> 
> *Trump will host members of the United Nations Security Council at the White House Monday.*
> 
> The meeting is unusual because of Trump's harsh criticism of the UN during his campaign.
> U.S. Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley has scheduled Security Council meetings on Tuesday.
> Andrea Mitchell
> 10 Hours Ago
> 
> President Trump will host members of the United Nations Security Council at the White House Monday, a highly unusual meeting made even more startling because of his harsh criticism of the international institution during the campaign and since taking office.
> 
> *U.S. Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley is serving this month as the President of the Security Council*, a role that rotates each month among the five permanent members: the U.S., Great Britain, France, China and Russia. There are 15 members of the group — but the others, right now including Egypt, Japan, Senegal, Bolivia, Ethiopia, Italy, Kazakhstan, Sweden, Ukraine and Uruguay are non-voting members.
> 
> *Haley will be attending before the group returns to New York for scheduled Security Council meetings on Tuesday.*
> 
> The president's budget outline proposed deep cuts in the U.S. contribution to the UN, which could dramatically impair its peacekeeping functions around the world.
> 
> Other high profile UN functions include refugee relief and vetting of refugee visa applicants to the U.S, the World Health Organization, UNICEF and the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna — the weapons inspectors who monitor Iran's compliance with the nuclear deal.
> 
> Diplomatic sources told NBC News* the ambassadors are expecting to have coffee at Blair House — also known as the The President's Guest House — with members of Congress Monday morning and then go to the White House to meet with the President and have lunch.*
> 
> *North Korea will inevitably be a major point of discussion.*
> 
> *China abstained on a UN resolution last week condemning the latest missile test — instead of vetoing it — a symbolic gesture*. But Beijing has so far resisted tougher action.
> 
> *The Trump administration could unilaterally impose much tougher banking sanctions against North Korea if it wanted to — similar to the Obama administration's past sanctions on Iran* — for instance blocking all foreign banks who deal with North Korea from trading in dollars or banking in the U.S. That would be a direct hit on China's financing of the regime in Pyongyang.
> 
> So far, however, the Trump White House has not chosen that route but has repeatedly said *"all options are on the table,"* implying military action was possible.
> 
> Many experts, including former Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, have discounted the viability of preemptive military strikes given the proximity of *millions of people in Seoul and 28,500 U.S. troops in South Korea, all within artillery range of North Korea* if it were to retaliate.
> 
> This all comes as *an American citizen, a Korean-American accounting instructor, was detained Sunday* at the airport in Pyongyang while trying to leave the country after having been there for a month.
> 
> The State Department has reached out to Sweden's embassy, the protectorate for the U.S. in North Korea, to try to obtain his release.



http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/24/president-trump-to-host-unusual-meeting-with-un-security-council.html

So, we have the following extraordinary meetings:

UNSC with members of Congress (under the auspices of the White House) Monday
UNSC with POTUS at the White House Monday
UNSC meeting scheduled at the UN on Tuesday
US Senate being briefed at White House on Wednesday by Sec State, Sec Def, CJCS and DNI
ABCANZUS Intelligence being briefed by Dir FBI and Dir CIA in Australia on Friday.

Fascinating.

All the more fascinating for how "collegial" the approach seems to be.   Hardly authoritarian at all.  Just very different.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Chris Pook said:
			
		

> ... So, we have the following extraordinary meetings:
> 
> UNSC with members of Congress (under the auspices of the White House) Monday
> UNSC with POTUS at the White House Monday
> UNSC meeting scheduled at the UN on Tuesday
> US Senate being briefed at White House on Wednesday by Sec State, Sec Def, CJCS and DNI
> ABCANZUS Intelligence being briefed by Dir FBI and Dir CIA in Australia on Friday
> "Special ministerial meeting of the United Nations Security Council" to be chaired by U.S. SecState Tillerson Friday @ U.N. ...


Source for add in yellow above


----------



## Kirkhill

http://www.euronews.com/2017/04/21/russia-north-korea-border-troop-movements-our-business

Move along folks. Nothing to see here.



> Russia is denying reports that it has been moving troops to the border with North Korea amid heightened regional tension, despite contradictory accounts from local witnesses.
> 
> Pictures which appeared on social media this week purport to show Russian military vehicles and helicopters near Vladivostock in the Primorsky region.
> 
> The video has been authenticated by the Associated Press based on the opinions of regional experts and the news agency’s own reporting.
> 
> But the Russian military has said these were normal manoeuvres unconnected to the North Korean situation.
> 
> “These are totally pre-planned military exercises, which are in no way related to political issues,” Alexander Gordeyev, a spokesman for Russia’s Eastern military district was quoted as saying. He added that the hardware people had seen was being transported back to base following the drills.
> 
> The Kremlin’s spokesman said this was Russia’s business only.
> 
> “The issue of deployment and redeployment of troops inside the country does not fall into the category of public affairs. Any country in the process of building its own security reacts to changes in the international situation,” Dmitry Peskov said.
> 
> Some media in Russia’s Far East have cited local residents as saying they have seen military hardware being moved towards North Korea.
> 
> Following last weekend’s anniversary parade that gave North Korea a chance to show off new weaponry, the country has more events lined up next week.
> 
> Pyongyang has called the situation on the Korean peninsula was “extremely perilous” because of “madcap American nuclear war manoeuvres”.
> 
> South Korea remains on heightened alert for another possible nuclear test by the North. Seoul has been running joint military exercises with the United States, which are due to finish at the end of April.
> 
> “A lot of exercise equipment is amassed in North Korea and also a lot of strategic assets are situated in the Korean peninsula because of the South Korea-US military drills,” South Korea’s Unification Ministry spokesman Lee Duk-haeng told a news briefing.



Concurrently, reports of Chinese troop movements (exercises) in the North Korean border area

http://www.smh.com.au/world/north-korea-tensions-reports-of-chinese-troops-on-border-20170411-gviljw.html



> China's foreign ministry spokeswoman on Monday said she was "not aware" of the South Korean reports of a Chinese troop build-up.
> 
> But the Global Times said the reports were being widely circulated, and cited South Korean diplomats as saying that while the claims may be slightly exaggerated, it was true that military drills were conducted in the border area.
> 
> The People's Liberation Army has recently expressed concern that northern Chinese towns were at risk of nuclear pollution from North Korea's tests, and said that contamination would not be tolerated.



Europe has a refugee crisis.  

What would be the effect of a refugee crisis on Russia and China?  And how might one organize such a thing?


----------



## The Bread Guy

Chris Pook said:
			
		

> ... reports of Chinese troop movements (exercises) in the North Korean border area
> 
> http://www.smh.com.au/world/north-korea-tensions-reports-of-chinese-troops-on-border-20170411-gviljw.html ...


... dutifully denied by Beijing week before last (and again this past weekend) -- _*BUT *_with a (CHN Communist Party organ) Global Times editorial calling for a bit of ... give by North Korea:


> ... Pyongyang has pursued an independent course since the end of the Korean War. The integrity of the nation's sovereignty is much higher than that of South Korea. This has impressed quite a few people. Yet given North Korea's current national strength as well as its peculiar geopolitical circumstances, it must learn how to be flexible as well as resolute. Taking a small step back will make a conflict easier to solve. This does not mean being a coward, but being courageous to face the challenge in a different way.
> 
> The North Korea nuclear issue is like a puzzle filled with bombs. Pyongyang must not strike a match and detonate it. What it needs is big wisdom to realize a soft landing.


----------



## tomahawk6

To brief all 100 members of the Senate is interesting. I think Trump is setting the stage to strike North Korea.


----------



## Kirkhill

Target.







http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/26/north-korea-releases-dramatic-images-largest-ever-live-fire/

Can't help but wonder how many bleeding eardrums there are.  Impact on command and control?


----------



## jollyjacktar

I keep thinking, the more of these pointless live fire demos they give, the better.  Depletes their stock and wears their tubes.  Carry on, idiots.  And of course there's always the chance they might take out a gun and crew or two with a mishap.


----------



## Kirkhill

The left of the line looks interesting in that regard.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Chris Pook said:
			
		

> Target.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/26/north-korea-releases-dramatic-images-largest-ever-live-fire/
> 
> Can't help but wonder how many bleeding eardrums there are.  Impact on command and control?



It's nice of them to put all that hardware within the impact area of a regimental fire mission.


----------



## The Bread Guy

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> To brief all 100 members of the Senate is interesting. I think Trump is setting the stage to strike North Korea.


No telegraphing yet in the post-briefing statement ...


> *Joint Statement by Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, Secretary of Defense James Mattis, Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats*
> 
> Release No: NR-144-17
> April 26, 2017
> 
> Past efforts have failed to halt North Korea’s unlawful weapons programs and nuclear and ballistic missile tests. With each provocation, North Korea jeopardizes stability in Northeast Asia and poses a growing threat to our allies and the U.S. homeland.
> 
> North Korea’s pursuit of nuclear weapons is an urgent national security threat and top foreign policy priority. Upon assuming office, President Trump ordered a thorough review of U.S. policy pertaining to the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK).
> 
> Today, along with Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Joe Dunford, we briefed members of Congress on the review. The president’s approach aims to pressure North Korea into dismantling its nuclear, ballistic missile, and proliferation programs by tightening economic sanctions and pursuing diplomatic measures with our allies and regional partners.
> 
> We are engaging responsible members of the international community to increase pressure on the DPRK in order to convince the regime to de-escalate and return to the path of dialogue. We will maintain our close coordination and cooperation with our allies, especially the Republic of Korea and Japan, as we work together to preserve stability and prosperity in the region.
> 
> The United States seeks stability and the peaceful denuclearization of the Korean peninsula. We remain open to negotiations towards that goal. However, we remain prepared to defend ourselves and our allies.


----------



## Journeyman

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Upon assuming office, resident Trump...


Would that be a Freudian typo?


----------



## Altair

So what role would Canada play in any North Korean conflict?

Does anyone think we send troops into harms way or do we sit that one out?


----------



## Halifax Tar

Altair said:
			
		

> So what role would Canada play in any North Korean conflict?
> 
> Does anyone think we send troops into harms way or do we sit that one out?



I cant see there being any appetite, political or public, for Canada to play a roll in a possible NK conflict. 

It would be political suicide by the sitting government.


----------



## Altair

Halifax Tar said:
			
		

> I cant see there being any appetite, political or public, for Canada to play a roll in a possible NK conflict.
> 
> It would be political suicide by the sitting government.


Not even if the UN comes calling?

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/korea-canada-war-1.4080214



> Should the tense standoff on the Korean Peninsula escalate into war, the United Nations could come calling on Canada for a military commitment.





> If the shooting starts, the United States-South Korea Combined Forces Command would take the lead in the initial stage of fighting, but policy documents prepared for former defence minister Peter MacKay in 2010 say reinforcements could be assembled using the existing, decades-old UN framework.
> 
> "The UNC structure would be used as a means of force-generating, and receiving and tasking any contributions that UNC sending states may choose to contribute in the event of a crisis," said the document, originally obtained and published by The Canadian Press.
> 
> The Department of National Defence confirmed on Friday that Canada remains part of the organization because it was one of the original 17 countries that took part in the fighting.



Canada and Trudeau like the UN.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Journeyman said:
			
		

> Would that be a Freudian typo?


 :rofl:

The "P" actually appears in the statement, but it didn't pick up on the highlight/copy/paste.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Latest from U.S. SecState speaking @ U.N. -- highlights mine ...


> Thank you, Secretary General, for that most helpful briefing. I shall now make a statement in my capacity as Secretary of State of the United States, and I thank you for the opportunity to address the Security Council.
> 
> According to UN Security Council Resolution 2321, a stated objective of this council is North Korea’s abandonment of its nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs.
> 
> For the past 20 years, well-intentioned diplomatic efforts to halt these programs have failed. It is only by first dismantling them that there can be peace, stability, and economic prosperity for all of Northeast Asia.
> 
> With each successive detonation and missile test, North Korea pushes Northeast Asia and the world closer to instability and broader conflict.
> 
> The threat of a North Korean nuclear attack on Seoul, or Tokyo, is real.
> 
> And it is likely only a matter of time before North Korea develops the capability to strike the U.S. mainland.
> 
> Indeed, the D.P.R.K. has repeatedly claimed it plans to conduct such a strike. Given that rhetoric, the United States cannot idly stand by. Nor can other members of this council who are within striking distance of North Korean missiles.
> 
> Having for years displayed a pattern of behavior that defies multiple UN Security Council resolutions, including 2321 and 2270, and erodes global progress on nuclear nonproliferation, there is no reason to think that North Korea will change its behavior under the current multilateral sanctions framework.
> 
> For too long, the international community has been reactive in addressing North Korea. Those days must come to an end.
> 
> Failing to act now on the most pressing security issue in the world may bring catastrophic consequences.
> 
> We have said this before and it bears repeating: the policy of strategic patience is over. Additional patience will only mean acceptance of a nuclear North Korea.
> 
> The more we bide our time, the sooner we will run out of it.
> 
> In light of the growing threat, the time has come for all of us to put new pressure on North Korea to abandon its dangerous path.
> 
> I urge this council to act before North Korea does.
> 
> We must work together to adopt a new approach and impose increased diplomatic and economic pressures on the North Korean regime.
> 
> The new campaign the United States is embarking on is driven by our own national security considerations, and it is welcomed by many nations who are concerned for their own security and question why North Korea clings to nuclear capabilities for which it has no need.
> 
> Our goal is not regime change. Nor do we desire to threaten the North Korean people or destabilize the Asia Pacific region. Over the years, we have withdrawn our own nuclear weapons from South Korea and offered aid to North Korea as proof of our intent to de-escalate the situation and normalize relations. Since 1995, the United States has provided over $1.3 billion dollars in aid to North Korea, and we look forward to resuming our contributions once the D.P.R.K. begins to dismantle its nuclear weapons and missile technology programs.
> 
> The D.P.R.K., for its own sake, must dismantle its nuclear and missile programs if it wants to achieve the security, economic development, and international recognition that it seeks. North Korea must understand that respect will never follow recklessness. North Korea must take concrete steps to reduce the threat that its illegal weapons programs pose to the United States and our allies before we can even consider talks.
> 
> I propose all nations take these three actions beginning today:
> 
> First, we call on UN member-states to fully implement the commitments they have made regarding North Korea. This includes all measures required in Resolutions 2321 and 2270.
> 
> Those nations which have not fully enforced these resolutions fully discredit this body.
> 
> Second, we call on countries to suspend or downgrade diplomatic relations with North Korea. North Korea exploits its diplomatic privileges to fund its illicit nuclear and missile technology programs, and constraining its diplomatic activity will cut off a flow of needed resources. In light of North Korea’s recent actions, normal relations with the D.P.R.K. are simply not acceptable.
> 
> Third, we must increase North Korea’s financial isolation. We must levy new sanctions on D.P.R.K. entities and individuals supporting its weapons and missile programs, and tighten those that are already in place. The United States also would much prefer countries and people in question to own up to their lapses and correct their behavior themselves, but we will not hesitate to sanction third-country entities and individuals supporting the D.P.R.K.’s illegal activities.
> 
> We must bring maximum economic pressure by severing trade relationships that directly fund the D.P.R.K.’s nuclear and missile program. I call on the international community to suspend the flow of North Korean guest workers and to impose bans on North Korean imports, especially coal.
> 
> We must all do our share, but China accounting for 90 percent of North Korean trade, China alone has economic leverage over Pyongyang that is unique, and its role is therefore particularly important. The U.S. and China have held very productive exchanges on this issue, and we look forward to further actions that build on what China has already done.
> 
> Lastly, as we have said before, all options for responding to future provocation must remain on the table. Diplomatic and financial levers of power will be backed up by a willingness to counteract North Korean aggression with military action if necessary. *We much prefer a negotiated solution to this problem.* But we are committed to defending ourselves and our allies against North Korean aggression.
> 
> This new pressure campaign will be swiftly implemented and painful to North Korean interest.
> 
> I realize some nations for which a relationship with North Korea has been in some ways a net positive may be disinclined to implement the measures of pressure on North Korea.
> 
> But the catastrophic effects of a North Korean nuclear strike outweigh any economic benefits. We must be willing to face the hard truths and make hard choices right now to prevent disastrous outcomes in the future.
> 
> Business as usual is not an option.
> 
> There is also a moral dimension to this problem. Countries must know by now that helping the North Korean regime means enabling cruelty and suffering.
> 
> North Korea feeds billions of dollars into a nuclear program it does not need while its own people starve.
> 
> The regime’s pursuit of nuclear weapons does not serve its own national security or the well-being of a people trapped in tyranny.
> 
> I ask the community of nations to help us preserve security and protect human dignity.
> 
> In one of my first trips as America’s Secretary of State, I looked across the DMZ at the haunted land of North Korea. Beyond the border is a nation of sorrow, frozen in time. While the world sees the gleaming buildings of Pyongyang, the blight of oppression and starvation has swept this land for over 60 years.
> 
> But even though the present condition of that country is bleak, the United States believes in a future for North Korea. These first steps toward a more hopeful future will happen most quickly if other stakeholders in this – in the region and the global security join us.
> 
> For years, North Korea has been dictating the terms of its dangerous course of action.
> 
> It is time for us to retake control of the situation.
> 
> We ask the members of this council and all other partners to implement a new strategy to denuclearize North Korea.
> 
> Thank you.
> 
> I resume my function now as president of the council. I now give the floor to His Excellency, Mr. Fumio Kishida, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Japan.


----------



## tomahawk6

Another failed missile launch today,it broke up after flying 25 miles splahing down in the sea. We can all sleep secure awhile longer.


----------



## jollyjacktar

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> Another failed missile launch today,it broke up after flying 25 miles splahing down in the sea. We can all sleep secure awhile longer.


I wonder if anyone will be tied to the next launch platform as an encouragement for the others to not fail next time.


----------



## The Bread Guy

jollyjacktar said:
			
		

> I wonder if anyone will be tied to the next launch platform as an encouragement for the others to not fail next time.


#PRKC&P


----------



## jmt18325

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> Another failed missile launch today,it broke up after flying 25 miles splahing down in the sea. We can all sleep secure awhile longer.



It kind of makes one think of this:


http://www.theonion.com/article/north-korea-successfully-detonates-nuclear-scienti-55783


----------



## PuckChaser

Altair said:
			
		

> Not even if the UN comes calling?
> 
> http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/korea-canada-war-1.4080214
> 
> Canada and Trudeau like the UN.



But that wouldn't be Africa or safe. The current government is super risk adverse, that's why we haven't committed to a mission yet.


----------



## jollyjacktar

PuckChaser said:
			
		

> But that wouldn't be Africa or safe. The current government is super risk adverse, that's why we haven't committed to a mission yet.



I am sure the Architect is working on a Blackadder worthy cunning plan...  meanwhile, I'm off to find a pair of pencils and clean underwear for my head.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G2DCExerOsA


----------



## Altair

PuckChaser said:
			
		

> But that wouldn't be Africa or safe. The current government is super risk adverse, that's why we haven't committed to a mission yet.


But I was under the impression that the current government would do anything to get that security council seat.


----------



## GAP

Altair said:
			
		

> But I was under the impression that the current government would do anything to get that security council seat.



not if it got Trump pissed at Wonder Boy.....must'nt tick him off.... :


----------



## PuckChaser

Altair said:
			
		

> But I was under the impression that the current government would do anything to get that security council seat.


They'd get a seat, but lose an election as soon as troops start coming home in bodybags on a vanity mission. They have a little bit of a clue on self preservation, they can't blame anyone else for the mission except themselves.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Interesting stuff from China's Communist Party paper, shared under the Fair Dealing provisions of the _Copyright Act (R.S.C., 1985, c. C-42)_ - highlights mine ...


> *China urges halt to THAAD deployment*
> 
> _Experts suggest cautious countermeasures to safeguard interests_
> 
> China on Tuesday reaffirmed its opposition to the deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-missile system in South Korea, urging relevant parties to immediately stop the deployment.
> 
> "China holds a clear and firm position on the issue of THAAD, and we call on the relevant sides to immediately stop the deployment," Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said at a daily press briefing on Tuesday.
> 
> *"We will also firmly take necessary measures to defend our own interests," said Geng.*
> 
> Geng made the remarks after US Forces Korea (USFK) said Tuesday that the anti-missile system, which was deployed last week in southeast South Korea, is "operational."
> 
> The installed THAAD system has the ability to "intercept missiles" from North Korea and "defend South Korea," according to USFK spokesperson Rob Manning, the Xinhua News Agency reported.
> 
> The installed system includes two mobile launchers, an AN/TPY-2 radar and other equipment. A THAAD battery is composed of six mobile launchers, 48 interceptors, the radar and the fire and control unit, Xinhua reported.
> 
> Regional countries have strongly opposed THAAD's deployment, including China and Russia, as it breaks the regional strategic balance.
> 
> "The deployment of THAAD poses a substantial threat to China, as the system enables South Korea and its ally to monitor China's military and economic projects in North, Northeast and East China," Yang Chengjun, a senior military strategist of missile studies from the PLA Rocket Force, told the Global Times.
> 
> Aside for diplomatic channels, *Yang also suggested military countermeasures to safeguard China's national security.
> 
> China could send more troops armed with advanced weapons to the northeast region, enhance air and naval forces in the region, as well as conduct regular anti-THAAD drills, Yang said.
> 
> Chinese Defense Ministry spokesperson Yang Yujun said Thursday that China will continue real combat-oriented military training and drills to safeguard national security.*
> 
> Meanwhile, the country can disclose more information about the deployment of some advanced weapons, such as the DF-41 strategic missile, according to Yang.
> 
> However, Jin Qiangyi, director of the Asia Studies Center at Yanbian University, warned that countermeasures against the THAAD must be done cautiously.
> 
> Compared with the US-Japan alliance, US-South Korea ties are weak, and China should avoid a breakdown in Sino-South Korean relations resulting from the countermeasures, which would only benefit the US and North Korea, Jin told the Global Times.
> 
> The earlier-than-expected deployment has also triggered protests in South Korea, Xinhua reported.


----------



## Rifleman62

The Art of The Deal. You get rid of the nut, the nucs, we remove THAAD.

The US has stated their aim is not regime change or reunification of Korea.


----------



## tomahawk6

What China really is focused on is the THAAD radar which can scan deep into the PRC.The PRC has installed anti-ship missiles on their new islands which could threaten shipping.THAAD only is a threat to missiles launched gainst the ROK and Japan. The wild card is the new ROK President who I suspect might be soft on defense and could ask for the removal of THAAD.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Here we go again!

_*"North Korea carries out new ballistic missile test"*_ (BBC)
_*"North Korea fires missile days after new South Korea leader pledges dialogue"*_ (Reuters)
_*"Russian missile warning systems tracked North Korea’s missile launch"*_ (TASS)
op:


----------



## The Bread Guy

And once more ...

_*"Seoul: North Korea Launches Ballistic Missile "*_ (Voice of America)
_*"North Korea launches unidentified projectile, South Korea says"*_ (FOX)
_*"North Korea in new missile test, South says"*_ (BBC)
More via Google News here


----------



## The Bread Guy

More of the latest ...

_*"N. Korea's Leader: New Anti-aircraft Weapon Ready for Mass Production"*_
_*"Sources: 3rd US Naval Strike Force Deployed to Deter North Korea"*_
This from a web page that seems to publish nothing but pro-Russian fan boy news, so caveat lector - just sharing to show what's out there ... _*"Russian military experts are indicating the Americans may have a problem with a SEAL time operating inside North Korea on a recon mission, gone horribly wrong ..."*_


----------



## Journeyman

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> "Russian military experts are indicating the Americans may have a problem with a SEAL time operating inside North Korea on a recon mission, gone horribly wrong ..."


It could be even more nefarious..... rly:  The USS Michigan that supposedly deployed the SEALs, is the first US submarine...


....with FEMALE crew members!!    

Next, we'll see a G7 "spouses' photo" with a man in it...... oh wait.   Plagues?  Locusts?  Beiber?

*END OF DAYS!!!! *  anic:


----------



## The Bread Guy

North Korea continues to poke ...

_*"North Korea fired a ballistic missile from its eastern coast early Monday morning, which flew about 450 kilometers, South Korea's military said.*  The missile is believed to be a Scud type, according to the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS).  It was launched eastward from the vicinity of Wonsan, Gangwon Province, at around 5:39 a.m., it said, adding South Korea and the United States are analyzing more information ..."_ (Yonhap - S.Korean news agency)
_*"North Korea launches projectile from near Wonsan – JCS"*_ (NK News, monitors of PRK news)
_*"North Korea fires Scud-class ballistic missile, Japan protests"*_ (Reuters)
_*"North Korea tests short-range ballistic missile, US military says"*_ (FOX News)
_*"North Korea fires ballistic missile, South Korea says"*_ (CNN)
_*"North Korea Test-Fires What Appears To Be Another Ballistic Missile"*_ (Huffington Post)


----------



## The Bread Guy

And one more time ...

_*"North Korea missile test: Hwasong-14 hailed as ICBM"*_ (BBC)
_*"North Korea launches missile it claims is ICBM, likely hitting Japanese waters"*_ (CNBC)
_*"China reiterates opposition to North Korea’s latest missile test"*_ (_Global Times_, CHN Communist Party media)
_*"Trump tweets angry response to North Korean missile launch"*_ (FOX News)
More via Google News


----------



## MilEME09

The US has long maintained that a ICBM would be a red line that would not be acceptable, Trump has shown a willingness to pull the trigger. The UN will be powerless to do anything significant once again, so what it comes down to really is whether the US is willing to start a war over this.


----------



## tomahawk6

The reports are mixed as to how successful the launch really was. The launch has a gotten the attention of the Japanese and Koreans. The PRC and Russia are opposed to the presence of THAAD in the ROK. This may encourage the Koreans and Japanese to embrace THAAD.


----------



## tomahawk6

An interesting bit of intel in a published photo of the new ICBM/IRBM. Look at the nose cone experts say its actually a shroud. Which indicates the ability to disperse counter measures while in flight. This capability would make interception early in flight critical. Otherwise the interceptor would have to pick out the warhead or warheads amongst the chaff.

http://www.businessinsider.com/north-korea-icbm-shroud-detail-countermeasures-threat-2017-7


----------



## jollyjacktar

Anyway you look at it,  the NK are stepping up their game and are on the road to being a serious problem.  I wonder what will be the straw that breaks and whose back it will be.  "one of these days,  Alice..."


----------



## tomahawk6

The question becomes is it cheaper to add more interceptors at Ft Greely or launch a limited strike on North Korea to take out their missile/nuclear capability and key leadership ?
It would be nice if the PRC would do it for us,but I dont see that happening.

http://abcnews.go.com/US/alaskas-fort-greely-line-defense-north-korea-nukes/story?id=18941174


----------



## jollyjacktar

I'm sure POTUS isn't having much fun drinking from the firehose.  I don't envy that position's responsibility and demands.  I bet the water tastes like blackwater.  Be careful what you wish for.


----------



## MilEME09

jollyjacktar said:
			
		

> I'm sure POTUS isn't having much fun drinking from the firehose.  I don't envy that position's responsibility and demands.  I bet the water tastes like blackwater.  Be careful what you wish for.



damned if you do, damned if you don't, if they sit back and play it defensively, they will look weak, play too aggressive and the second korean war will be on.


----------



## a_majoor

The question for the Trump Administration is with is the "least worst" alternative?

http://observer.com/2017/07/donald-trump-north-korea-options/



> *Trump Has 6 Options to Neutralize North Korea—but None Are Good*
> The carrot and the stick approach clearly failed
> By Austin Bay • 07/11/17 6:30am
> 
> We don’t hear mere saber rattling on the Korean peninsula. Sabers are local, short-range weapons. The dreadful noise in east Asia is something far more potent: the provocative July 4 blast of a North Korean missile capable of striking North America.
> 
> South Korea’s Sunshine Policy to coax North Korea to end its nuclear quest? The Clinton Administration’s Agreed Framework of economic carrots and heavy oil to encourage regime moderation? Two decades (or more) of rational U.S. appeals to China to help curb the noxious Kim regime’s pursuit of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles and to help terminate Pyongyang’s cyclic bouts of military attacks on South Korea?
> 
> These soft power gambits may have thrilled the editorial board of The New York Times, but they didn’t stop North Korea’s dictatorship. The Kim regime now has an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) in its arsenal—one that threatens Anchorage, Alaska, and perhaps Pearl Harbor, Hawaii.
> 
> Eight years ago, on July 4, 2009, North Korea conducted a missile test. July 4 launches are clearly messages to America.
> 
> Alaska and Hawaii are minimalist interpretations of the 2017 missile’s range. Other experts fear the ICBM, a Hwasong-14, can reach the Canadian and U.S. west coasts.
> 
> Parts of Alaska (western Aleutians) have been within range of North Korean missiles for several years. So has Guam. There is an ongoing debate about the Taepodong-2 ballistic missile that was test-fired in February 2016. It may have had the range to hit northern California.
> 
> The July 4 launch doesn’t mean the North Koreans can handle operational targeting; it doesn’t mean they can mount an operational nuclear warhead on a missile; it doesn’t mean they have a warhead that can re-enter the atmosphere without breaking apart; it doesn’t mean they can detonate a warhead that can reach its target. It does, however, show they are hell bent on acquiring these capabilities and their accelerated development program is succeeding.
> 
> For the moment, the heat from North Korea’s intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test remains rhetorical and its fallout political. However, Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons program will eventually produce nuclear warheads for its boosters.
> 
> For almost four decades, the Kim dynasty in Pyongyang has promised to build nuclear weapons and ICBMs. Now the dictatorship’s dream is a real world nightmare.
> 
> Since the 1990s, there have been three general options for halting North Korea’s nuclear weapons program: enforce stiff economic and political sanctions to isolate the regime; follow a “wait and see” political and military strategy played with cautious economic carrots and sticks; and conduct a pre-emptive air or missile strike on North Korean nuclear research and development sites, weapons stores, missile and air bases, and command and control facilities.
> 
> Here are the current options for the U.S. to neutralize the Hermit Kingdom’s threat. Each entails grave risks.
> 
> 1.) Yet another “do the right thing” bid to Beijing. China has vulnerabilities. China’s imperial territorial expansion in the South China Sea has produced adversarial reactions. China’s other borders are anything but problem-free, and Beijing’s bullying has intensified several disputes.
> 
> Chinese jockeying failed to shake the new government of South Korean President Moon Jae-in and force the withdrawal of a U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-ballistic missile (ABM) battery deployed in South Korea.
> 
> China threatened South Korean companies. It curtailed travel and cultural contacts. It threatened Seoul with political reprisals.
> 
> The THAAD tantrum failed, and China is still processing that failure. Moon was pegged as a “peace candidate” of the timorous political stripe Beijing and Pyongyang might manipulate. He performed a brief “review” of the THAAD deployment (which he promised he would do during his campaign), but after his meeting with President Donald Trump, he declared “a unified front” against Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile programs.
> 
> South Korea knows THAAD provides protection. Japan also knows U.S. anti-ballistic missiles (ABM) provide protection.
> 
> Beijing has not yet adapted to South Korea’s and Japan’s new resolve. Moon is positioned to help Beijing adapt to 2017’s new reality and encourage China to finally squeeze the nukes out of the North.
> 
> Eighty-five percent of North Korea’s international trade is with China. North Korea’s miserable economy depends on China.
> 
> Some North Korean defectors argue tough sanctions—meaning an embargo and blockade with China participating—could cripple the Kim regime.
> 
> In April, Trump tweeted “a trade deal with the U.S. will be far better if they (China) solve the North Korean problem!” An economic payoff? Yes, but better than a shooting war.
> 
> 2.) Coercive diplomacy directed at China. In March, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said “strategic patience” with North Korea was over and done.
> 
> Eventually strategic patience with Chinese posturing will also end.
> 
> China is attempting to portray itself as “the global adult” in the Trump Era and as the “go to nation” for the next Davos. However, backing North Korea utterly exposes this Chinese narrative as the sham it is. In February, Kim Jon Un’s assassins murdered his half-brother, Kim Jong Nam. The killers smeared him with a liquid nerve poison, persistent VX. In a missile warhead, VX is a weapon of mass destruction. Assassination as a geo-political advertisement that North Korea is an outlaw regime is an action no responsible nation would permit.
> 
> So coercive diplomacy starts with an information campaign challenging China’s pose.
> 
> It gets uglier. In the U.S.-China relationship, trade politics and geo-politics intersect. Business isn’t simply business when the promise of wealth keeps China’s Communist Party in power. The United States has the economic power to damage China. Trump knows it and so does Beijing. Trump has already talked trade barriers.
> 
> The U.S. is energy independent and China isn’t. The U.S. and its allies can restrict Chinese exports and access to raw materials.
> 
> Smaller but politically irritating sanctions like denying wealthy Chinese the ability to purchase real estate in the U.S. could have political effects among Chinese elites. In the upcoming party Congress scheduled for this fall, Chinese President Xi Jinping wants to solidify his control. However, he faces internal Communist Party opposition. The U.S. could exploit emerging factions in the party elite.
> 
> Coercive diplomacy stops when China forces North Korea to denuclearize.
> 
> Risky? Of course. It could spark a ruinous global trade war. But it is an option.
> 
> 3.) The cynical trade and sell-out. The U.S., Japan and South Korea could acknowledge Chinese control of the South China Sea or they could give Taiwan to China in exchange for a denuclearized North Korea.
> 
> Outrageous? Yes. India would never accept it. Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Singapore and Australia would go tilt.
> 
> I don’t think the U.S. and Japan would ever seriously contemplate it.
> 
> But it’s an option and likely the “appeasement” deal Beijing wants to make.
> 
> 4.) Return of serve. This is an operation that could support several diplomatic options. The U.S., South Korea and Japan could use their ABMs to intercept every North Korean test launch. They might also employ cyber warfare to disrupt tests (perhaps they have already done so). The objective of “Return of Serve” is to stymie the test program and embarrass Kim Jong Un.
> 
> 5.) Decapitation. What does Pyongyang want? The murder of Kim Jong Nam suggests one key objective: to retain Kim Jong Un’s control. Encouraging a North Korean Army coup sounds great, and if you know the faction who would do it, contact CIA immediately. Targeting Kim with a missile or aircraft-delivered munitions is extremely difficult. Moreover, his death may not lead to denuclearization and attacking him would be an act of war.
> 
> 6.) Delayed reprisal and the war to denuclearize. Is a pre-emptive strike reckless? This asks another question: Just how responsible is a post-emptive strike?
> 
> The Korean War isn’t over.
> 
> Donald Trump is already a Korean War president—but so was Barack Obama and every other American president since Harry Truman.
> 
> Over the years, North Korea has committed atrocities throughout Asia. The regime has murdered and kidnapped South Koreans, Japanese and U.S. personnel. North Korea’s embedded belligerency defies the laws of war. The War to Denuclearize would be less of a pre-emptive strike than a delayed reprisal.
> 
> The U.S. and South Korea have exercised what they call a 4D strategy to “detect, defend, disrupt and destroy” North Korea’s missiles.
> 
> Weapons systems involved include various U.S. aircraft and a South Korean submarine with cruise missiles.
> 
> This is a bare sketch of some of the systems that would be employed in a “simultaneous strategic bombing strike” to knock out North Korean missiles, missile launchers, storage sites, nuclear and chemical weapons sites, command and control centers, communications systems and air-space defenses.
> 
> The U.S. and its allies in east Asia have the aircraft and missiles (cruise and ballistic) to deliver at least 2,000 (likely more) precision blockbuster-sized conventional weapons within a two to 10 minute time frame on North Korea’s critical targets. The April U.S. Tomahawk cruise missile attack on a Syrian Shayrat airbase provides an example.
> 
> The missiles were fired at a distance, but since they can “loiter,” the 59 missiles arrived near simultaneously. U.S. Air Force heavy bombers can drop smart bombs so that munitions dropped from different aircraft arrive near simultaneously.
> 
> A simultaneous strategic bombing strike seeks to surprise the enemy, destroy his strategic weapons systems and suppress his key defenses throughout the battle area.
> 
> That is asking a lot—perhaps too much.
> 
> Success depends on many things, but the first D—detect—is vital. Conducting a successful simultaneous strategic bombing strike requires very accurate, real-time intelligence. Allied ABMs must be ready to intercept any North Korean missiles that survive the attack.
> 
> That’s a sketch of the first 10 minutes. Over the next month subsequent strikes would occur, to make certain North Korea’s long-range missiles, chemical munitions, nuclear weapons stockpiles, missile manufacturing capabilities and nuclear weapons manufacturing capabilities are eliminated.
> 
> The U.S. and it allies must protect Seoul. North Korean artillery can bombard the northern reaches of South Korea’s capital. Military analysts debate the severity of the threat posed to Seoul by North Korean artillery deployed along the Demilitarized Zone. Some call it overrated. Perhaps, but best to suppress and destroy the artillery. North Korea’s tube and rocket artillery systems—even the ones in caves and bunkers—are vulnerable to weapons like the Massive Ordnance Air Blast (MOAB) bomb.
> 
> Smart bombs can close tunnel entrances.
> 
> This is a major war, and the risks are great. But so is exposing Los Angeles to the violent whims of a nuclear-armed Kim Jong Un.


----------



## a_majoor

This is bad news:

http://www.38north.org/2017/07/yongbyon071417/



> *North Korea’s Yongbyon Facility: Probable Production of Additional Plutonium for Nuclear Weapons*
> BY: 38 NORTH
> JULY 14, 2017SATELLITE IMAGERY
> A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Joseph S. Bermudez Jr., Mike Eley, Jack Liu and Frank V. Pabian.
> 
> Summary
> 
> Thermal imagery analysis of the Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center indicates that from September 2016 through June 2017:
> 
> The Radiochemical Laboratory operated intermittently and there have apparently been at least two unreported reprocessing campaigns to produce an undetermined amount of plutonium that can further increase North Korea’s nuclear weapons stockpile. This suggests batch rather than continuous processing of spent fuel rods from the 5 MWe Reactor during the period of analysis.
> Increased thermal activity was noted at the Uranium Enrichment Facility. It is unclear if this was the result of centrifuge operations or maintenance operations. Centrifuge operations would increase the North’s enriched uranium inventory; however, based on imagery alone, it is not possible to conclude whether the plant is producing low or highly enriched uranium.
> 
> The thermal patterns at the probable Isotope/Tritium Production Facility have remained consistent, suggesting that the facility is not operational, or is operating at a very low level. This means, the facility is likely not producing tritium, which is an essential isotope used in the production of boosted yield nuclear weapons and hydrogen bombs.
> 
> From December 2016 through January 2017, the thermal pattern over the Experimental Light Water Reactor (ELWR) was elevated. While that might indicate that the reactor was operational, the likelihood is low since the pattern does not appear in subsequent imagery over the last six months. It is possible that there are alternative explanations for the elevated pattern, for example, short-term activity at the ELWR such as the heating of pipes to prevent freezing. Regardless, any activity at the ELWR is cause for concern and bears continued monitoring.
> The 5 MWe Reactor has either been intermittently operating at a low-level or not operating. The notable exception to this was during December 2016 and January 2017 when thermal patterns suggests a higher level of operations.
> 
> Analysis
> 
> While commercial satellite imagery is now widely used to analyze important developments overseas, including in North Korea, thermal imagery can provide additional important insights. Landsat 7 imagery from September 2016 through June 2017 was used for this analysis, although heavy cloud cover precluded the use of imagery from last November and no night-time imagery was available for the entire time period of this study.[1] A total of 19 images are available and of these, 10 were chosen with approximately one-month time intervals between them to provide a consistent periodicity for the analysis. Seven images were deemed too cloudy for analysis and thus weren’t considered.[2]
> 
> Developments noted at key Yongbyon installations were as follows:
> 
> Radiochemical Laboratory: Examination of the thermal patterns associated with the Radiochemical Laboratory (reprocessing facility) show significant deviations from month to month. Concentrated heat patterns were observed with stronger temperature differences from the surrounding area between September to October of last year. The thermal patterns then returned to lower levels until March 2017, when a distinct increase in thermal activity is observed that has continued through last month. These intermittent surges in thermal activity suggest North Korea has conducted batch rather than continuous processing of spent fuel rods from the 5 MWe Reactor. It is typical to allow the spent fuel rods to rest for a while in cooling ponds to both cool and allow less stable plutonium isotopes (PU-238, etc.) to bleed off. These reprocessing campaigns do not necessarily occur immediately after spent fuel rods are removed from the 5 MWe reactor. The June 2017 thermal activity coincides with an increase in activity noted in a March 2017 analysis based upon natural color imagery.
> 
> Uranium Enrichment Plant: The thermal patterns at the Uranium Enrichment Facility were elevated during September and October 2016, then decreased in November 2016 and remained low until March 2017 when it increased slightly. It is unclear if the period of elevated activity from September through November was related to centrifuge operations or the maintenance activity that was observed during this period.
> 
> Experimental Light Water Reactor: The same elevated thermal patterns over the 5 MWe Reactor observed in imagery during December 2016 and January 2017 also extended over the area of the ELWR. This was likely the result of steam being released into the air when the turbines adjacent to the 5 MWe Reactor were being run, operation of the 5 MWe Reactor itself, mid-winter heating of both structures, prevailing weather patterns, or some combination of the above. We cannot completely, however, eliminate the possibility that this elevated thermal pattern was the result of short-term activity at the ELWR itself—for example, heating the structure to prevent pipes from freezing, allowing ongoing internal construction work, or pre-startup testing.[3] It is important to note that no other significant patterns of thermal activity were observed over the ELWR throughout the study period. Importantly, the ELWR did not operate at all from February through June 2017. Any activity at the ELWR is cause for concern and its operational status bears continued monitoring as it would be an indicator of North Korean ongoing intentions and capabilities.
> 
> 5 MWe Reactor: The thermal patterns observed at the 5 MWe Reactor remain relatively consistent with those observed in the previous report indicating either intermittent low-level or no operation of the reactor. There was a notable deviation in the December 2016 and January 2017 images, suggesting a period of higher level reactor operation that lends support to a previous analysis based upon natural color imagery.
> 
> Isotope/Tritium Production Facility: The thermal patterns at the probable Isotope/Tritium Production Facility have remained consistently low throughout the period under study, suggesting that the facility is not operational, or is operating at a very low level.
> 
> 
> 
> Satellite photos and footnotes at link
Click to expand...


----------



## Colin Parkinson

You know it’s to bad that the US does not have operational lasers built into Sub masts. Just imagine all sorts of spontaneous fires mysteriously appearing along the coastal areas.


----------



## 7thghoul

http://globalnews.ca/news/3634762/us-bombers-korean-peninsula-north-korea-missile-test/

In response to the latest test by NK of their Hwasong-14 ICBM. It seems like once a month these guys get up in everyone's face. I don't know if it's just me but I used to think NK was a bit of a joke (in high school, under Kim Jong-Il) as they were impoverished and incapable of actually hurting the mainland US or their allies (us, SK, Japan, etc.) either at all or without threat of complete retaliatory annihilation. 

It would seem in the last 2 years the new Kim has managed to fund and direct this project to its conclusion now that they supposedly have a ICBM that can hit West Coast US (they are now saying LA) or Canada for that matter. 

BRB I'm going to go buy a fallout shelter, anyone want in?


----------



## tomahawk6

There has been an increase in North Korean submarine activity. They seem to be testing their submarine launched missile. This might be all it would take to cause the US to take decisive action if the North Koreans can perfect this capability.

http://edition.cnn.com/2017/07/31/politics/north-korea-ejection-test-submarine-activity

Washington (CNN)The US military has detected "highly unusual and unprecedented levels" of North Korean submarine activity and evidence of an "ejection test" in the days following Pyongyang's second intercontinental ballistic missile launch this month, a defense official told CNN on Monday.

An ejection test examines a missile's "cold-launch system," which uses high pressure steam to propel a missile out of the launch canister into the air before its engines ignite. That helps prevent flames and heat from the engine from damaging either the submarine, submersible barge or any nearby equipment used to launch the missile.


----------



## a_majoor

Another look at how a new Korean War might play out. The inability of the DPRK to logistically support or sustain an attack has probably been both the sticking point for them (possibly for decades) and also the reason to attempt to make a "strategic breakout" with unconventional and nuclear forces. To what end and how successfully is the big question for all of us:

https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2017/08/us-mini-nukes-and-an-analysis-of-a-second-korean-war.html#more-135303



> *US Mini-nukes and an analysis of a second Korean warbrian wang | August 4, 2017 | *
> 
> The Long Range stand off (LRSO) nuclear cruise missile program has been funded since 2013 and has received about $500 million in funding. The program will eventually cost $15-30 billion.
> 
> There have been calls to cancel it. The LRSO would have a variable-yield weapon using a modified W80 warhead. The Air Force wishes to procure: 1,000–1,100 LRSO. That looks like a significant increase in the number of air-launched cruise missiles available for bomber missions.
> 
> The Department of Energy is producing a new variant of the B61 gravity bomb that will be highly accurate and have a variable yield of 0.3 to 50 kilotons.
> 
> The existing (but to be retired) ALCM is believed to have a selectable yield of 5 KTs or 150 KTs. The lower yield is presumably for the boosted primary alone, and the larger yield for the two-stage weapon. The life-extension program for the W80 warhead, which will be carried by the LRSO missile, is expected to provide closer to a “dial-a-yield” option that would allow a number of yield options.
> 
> There is a debate that making the mini-nuclear weapons more capable and flexible would encourage their use in say a conflict with North Korea.
> 
> The US can destroy North Korea’s air defenses using conventional weapons in about a week just as the US destroyed Air Defenses of Iraq. The question of whether missiles have more stealth or whether there is selectable nuclear yield on 1000 or 2000 nuclear weapons in the US arsenal is not significant. This is because the US can wage more limited nuclear war with lower yield nuclear weapons already.
> 
> A 2012 military analysis of North Korea’s attack Seoul would be less damaging than more simplistic analysis.
> 
> Despite the thousands of artillery pieces, only 700 heavier guns and rocket launchers, plus the newer 300-millimeter MRLs, have the range to strike Seoul. Seoul has extensive air raid shelters for civilians that will quickly reduce the exposed population density. The North will struggle to keep these heavy artillery units supplied with shells, particularly with its aging supply system. Finally, U.S. and ROK forces will quickly begin hunting down units participating in the bombardment, causing their numbers to drop almost immediately.
> 
> North Korea occasionally threatens to “turn Seoul into a Sea of Fire”. The South Korean, U.S. and other international media often relay this statement, amplifying its effect. But can North Korea really do this? Does it matter if they can? The short answer is they can’t; but they can kill many tens of thousands of people, start a larger war and cause a tremendous amount of damage before ultimately losing their regime.
> 
> If the North Korean Peoples Army (KPA) were to start a doctrinal, conventional artillery barrage focused on South Korean forces, we could expect to see around three thousand casualties in the first few minutes, but the casualty rate would quickly drop as the surprise wears off and counter-battery fires slow down the North Korean rates of fire. If the KPA were to engage Seoul in a primarily counter-value fashion by firing into Seoul instead of primarily aiming at military targets, there would likely be around thirty-thousand casualties in a short amount of time. Statistically speaking, almost eight-hundred of those casualties would be foreigners given Seoul’s international demographic. Chinese make up almost seventy percent of foreigners in Seoul and its northern environs which means KPA might also kill six-hundred Chinese diplomats, multi-national corporation leaders, and ranking cadre children who are students in Seoul. Horrible, but nothing approaching “millions”. Three primary factors and three secondary factors account for the huge discrepancy between rhetoric and reality:
> 
> Note : The Nautilus analysis seems to imply that a US-South Korea first strike would blunt the initial North Korea damage rate and could limit early deaths to 10000 to 15000. There would be no initial rate of 3000 deaths in the first few minutes and there would be some pre-warning on the South Korea side to get people to shelters.
> 
> However, the protracted artillery and tank battle would still kill 80,000 in the first week. Overall deaths would be in the 100,000-150,000 range.
> 
> Three Primary Factors
> 
> * Range – Only about 1/3 of Seoul is presently in range from artillery along a DMZ trace. The northern reaches of Seoul within artillery range have much lower population densities than Seoul proper;
> * Numbers – Even though KPA has a tremendous number of artillery pieces, only a certain number are emplaced to range Seoul. KPA can’t emplace every weapon near Seoul or the rest of North Korea’s expansive border would be unguarded and even more vulnerable. Moreover, an artillery tube immediately reveals its location as soon as it fires. Therefore only about two-thirds of artillery will open fire at a time. The rest are trying to remain hidden;
> * Protection – Artillery shelters for twenty million people exist in the greater Seoul metropolitan area. After the initial surprise has worn off, there simply won’t be large numbers of exposed people. Even during the initial attack the vast majority of people will either be at work, at home, or in transit. Few people will be standing in the middle of an open field with no protection whatsoever available anywhere nearby.
> 
> Three Secondary Factors
> 
> * Dud rate – the only numbers available—to the DPRK as well as the rest of the world—indicate a dud rate of twenty-five percent. It’s like immediately taking every fourth artillery tube away.
> * Counter-battery fires – shortly after the KPA artillery begins firing, and the political decision has been made, South Korean artillery, Air Forces, and others will begin destroying artillery at a historical rate of 1% per hour. South Korea has had approximately 50 years to figure out where North Korean artillery tubes are emplaced using every sense available to man and machine.
> * Logistics – in order to move south from the DMZ trace and place the rest of Seoul at risk, KPA must expose approximately 2,500 thin-skinned vehicles each day along three well-defined transportation corridors. Otherwise, KPA grinds to an almost immediate halt without a way to transport fuel, ammunition and spare parts needed to continue moving south. Alternatively, KPA can scavenge from ROK fuel stores and depots if they have not been previously destroyed.


----------



## Lumber

Unless that first Salvo includes artillery fired nukes. That would change these predictions significantly.


----------



## Old Sweat

Lumber said:
			
		

> Unless that first Salvo includes artillery fired nukes. That would change these predictions significantly.



While I don't have any intelligence re the NK arsenal, artillery fired nukes - if they had any in the first place - are relatively low yield and operate under the same rules of physics as the non-nuke variety. Thus, as noted above, only the northern suburbs would be within range. Your point about the increase in casualties, however, is moot. The questions are (a) how many and (b) what can be done to protect the population?


----------



## GR66

Lumber said:
			
		

> Unless that first Salvo includes artillery fired nukes. That would change these predictions significantly.



That would actually simplify the US response.  One massive counter-strike and the war ends in hours.


----------



## a_majoor

The DPRK escalates rhetoric in response to the new round of sanctions:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/n-korea-vows-harsh-retaliation-against-fresh-un-sanctions/2017/08/07/7696ab76-7b3f-11e7-b2b1-aeba62854dfa_story.html?utm_term=.b471dd21cf45



> *North Korea vows harsh retaliation against new UN sanctions*
> By Hyung-Jin Kim | AP August 7 at 10:31 AM
> 
> SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea vowed Monday to bolster its nuclear arsenal and gain revenge of a “thousand-fold” against the United States in response to tough U.N. sanctions imposed following its recent intercontinental ballistic missile tests.
> 
> The warning came two days after the U.N. Security Council unanimously approved new sanctions to punish North Korea, including a ban on coal and other exports worth over $1 billion. The U.S. ambassador to the U.N., Nikki Haley, called the U.S.-drafted resolution “the single largest economic sanctions package ever leveled against” North Korea.
> 
> In a statement carried by the North’s state-run Korean Central News Agency, North Korea’s government said the sanctions were a “violent infringement of its sovereignty” that was caused by a “heinous U.S. plot to isolate and stifle” the country.
> 
> “We will make the U.S. pay by a thousand-fold for all the heinous crimes it commits against the state and people of this country,” the statement said.
> 
> The North said it would take an unspecified “resolute action of justice” and would never place its nuclear program on the negotiating table or “flinch an inch” from its push to strengthen its nuclear deterrence as long as U.S. hostility against North Korea persists.
> 
> North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Yong-ho made similar comments during an annual regional security conference in Manila on Monday.
> 
> South Korea’s government said the North would face stronger sanctions if it doesn’t stop its nuclear and missile provocation.
> 
> Lim Eul Chul, a North Korea expert at South Korea’s Kyungnam University, said the comments by the North demonstrate how angry it is over the U.N. sanctions, but that the country is not likely to launch a pre-emptive strike against the United States. He said the North could still carry out further missile tests or a sixth atomic bomb test in the coming months under its broader weapons development timetable.
> 
> North Korea test-launched two ICBMs last month as part of its efforts to possess a long-range missile capable of striking anywhere in the mainland U.S. Both missiles were fired at highly lofted angles, and analysts say the weapons could reach parts of the United States such as Alaska, Los Angeles or Chicago if fired at a normal, flattened trajectory.
> 
> The centerpiece of the U.N. sanctions is a ban on North Korean exports of coal, iron, lead and seafood products — and a ban on all countries importing those products, estimated to be worth over $1 billion a year in hard currency. The resolution also bans countries from giving any additional permits to North Korean laborers, another source of foreign currency for the North, and prohibits all new joint ventures with North Korean companies.
> 
> Analysts say that North Korea, already under numerous U.N. and other international sanctions, will feel some pain from the new sanctions but is not likely to return to disarmament negotiations anytime soon because of them.
> 
> Lim, the North Korea expert, said the North will probably squeeze its ordinary citizens to help finance its nuclear and missile programs. Shin Beomchul of the Seoul-based Korea National Diplomatic Academy said sanctions that can force a change from North Korea would include a ban on China’s annual, mostly free shipment of 500,000 tons of crude oil to North Korea and the deporting by U.N. member states of the tens of thousands of North Korean workers currently dispatched abroad.


----------



## tomahawk6

The DIA has concluded that the North has at least one nuclear warhead and possibly more.This might explain Kim's attitude. I think this increases the likelihood of a US pre-emptive strike.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/north-korea-now-making-missile-ready-nuclear-weapons-us-analysts-say/2017/08/08/e14b882a-7b6b-11e7-9d08-b79f191668ed_story.html?utm_term=.aacddee50c24


----------



## Fishbone Jones

North Korea doesn't appear to have many powerful friends. 

Perhaps no one would be especially annoyed if the US started shooting down every missile leaving NK airspace?


----------



## Kat Stevens

I don't think anyone who lives in the neighborhood would be too concerned if the mental defective next door with the machine gun were to have a tragic accident.


----------



## tomahawk6

I think the PRC would have to sign off on any US action against the North. If they gave a thumbs up there would be several strings attached like their control of the south china sea and no US forces above the 36th parallel after the regime change.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Funny how SOME anonymous leaks to media are OK to share  

Meanwhile, Canada's National Security Advisor is reportedly in PRK (attached from PRK news agency), apparently to discuss releasing a Canadian clergyman detained since 2015.


----------



## Edward Campbell

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> I think the PRC would have to sign off on any US action against the North. If they gave a thumbs up there would be several strings attached like their control of the south china sea and no US forces above the 36th parallel after the regime change.



I have said before that _I think_* the Chinese made on offer, years, even decades ago: "*Remove US forces from South Korea and we will, very,  very quickly, remove the DPRK's political leadership and encourage the reunification of Korea under a South Korean led, democratic government.*"

_I suspect_ that the North Korean leadership, one and two steps below the fruitcake, is heavily in the pay of both China and South Korea and wants reunification as much as anyone.

China doesn't want a war, that would send millions of North Koreans across the border, seeking refuge in China. A Chinese invasion is not impossible, but ~ look at the maps ~ it's not a cakewalk, either. The Yalu River is a formidable obstacle and I believe the the DPRK has made all the bridges into reserved demolitions. The DPRK's army is HUGE ~ maybe poorly equipped, ineptly led and inadequately equipped, but it's BIG; the PLA is being restructured, made smaller and much more professional, but more suited to global operations, and less suited to a man-on-man slugging match or artillery duel against North Korea.

China's _*vital interests*_ are:

     1. Peace and stability on it's borders ~ it has that now;

     2. Ever growing trade with and investment from South Korea ~ it has that now, too.

Why would China want an American attack?
_____
* I have no quotable sources ... just a _guess_.


----------



## Journeyman

Kat Stevens said:
			
		

> I don't think anyone who lives in the neighborhood would be too concerned if *the mental defective next door with the machine gun* were to have a tragic accident.


You may need to be a bit more specific about who you mean.   :-\


----------



## The Bread Guy

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> ... Canada's National Security Advisor is reportedly in PRK (attached from PRK news agency), apparently to discuss releasing a Canadian clergyman detained since 2015.


Notwithstanding everything else going on in the Black Box that is PRK, this visit seems to have worked ...

_*"North Korea releases Canadian pastor Hyeon Soo Lim"*_ (CNN)
_*"North Korea says it released Canadian detainee"*_ (AP, via CTV)
_*"North Korea releases Canadian citizen on “humanitarian” grounds"*_ (nknews.org - PRK media monitoring organization)
Screen capture of PRK info-machine announcement in English attached.

In other news, PRK's putting out a stamp celebrating its missile testing while (for all we know) co-ordinates are being punched into U.S. targeting systems as I type (PRK info-machine source - alternate source not linking directly to PRK page). #SmokingPhilatelicCrater?


----------



## 7thghoul

The pastor who spoke at Trump's inauguration has come forward to the public/media saying that Trump has the moral authority from God to destroy Kim Jong Un. This is a war primer.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/acts-of-faith/wp/2017/08/08/god-has-given-trump-authority-to-take-out-kim-jong-un-evangelical-adviser-says/?tid=sm_fb&utm_term=.48e15bf8496f


----------



## Kat Stevens

Well, as long as God says it's okay, let's roll!!  :


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Obama's Pastor was just as dumb. Of course there is also the Congress member that worried an island would capsize.


----------



## MilEME09

I get the feeling Trump is trying to find the right button to push to provoke North Korea into a foolish first strike. Which could then allow him to bring China and russia quickly on board military action against the DPRK.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

yes very possible


----------



## Old Sweat

A NK first strike would also allow Trump to retaliate without going to Congress for authorization, especially if the strike was aimed at American territory. Considering the apparent small size and total amount of the NK warheads - nominal yield which is nuke talk for the approximate equivalent of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki warheads - a massive response would not be warranted, as if he would consider that for too long. Mind you, it may not take too much to slay the monster.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Kim would be long gone from any likely retaliatory strike target before launching a first strike, in fact they most likely would have a double in place where he is expected to be. However if he starts even a limited nuclear exchange, China is going to have his head on a stake for sure. Likely a US nuclear response would be a low yield weapon on a important military target, near the capitol but preferably with winds that blow away from China or SK.


----------



## 7thghoul

I find the strategy interesting. Traditonally, NK's bombastic threats are actually cries for help: they have one of the smallest GDP's and need basic supplies just to feed their population. KJU has tossed the game up however, seeming to actually possess a madness that pushes the boundaries of what his fathers regime would permit. It'll be interesting to see if Un actually decides to trample the bizarro status quo that is North Korean politics and actually attack someone. 

I hope he does and the world can put an end to this entire bamboozle of a country. I assume THAAD could shoot down anything he fires this way?

side note, If the US and NK go to war, presumably as was mentioned before -- with China and Russia backing in response to Security Council violations (a nuclear launch from NK) -- would CF fight too or would we even be needed lol.


----------



## tomahawk6

If the Pentagon got the order from Trump,the smart play would be to eliminate Kim. Then see who emerges as the new leader.


----------



## Kat Stevens

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> If the Pentagon got the order from Trump,the smart play would be to eliminate Kim. Then see who emerges as the new leader.



Gotta find him first. That shitweasel will be two miles underground, or in Caracas slugging down mohitos long before any launch is made.


----------



## 7thghoul

Kat Stevens said:
			
		

> Gotta find him first. That shitweasel will be two miles underground, or in Caracas slugging down mohitos long before any launch is made.



Sounds like a job for seal team 6


----------



## MilEME09

7thghoul said:
			
		

> side note, If the US and NK go to war, presumably as was mentioned before -- with China and Russia backing in response to Security Council violations (a nuclear launch from NK) -- would CF fight too or would we even be needed lol.



The CAF is still part of UN Command, we do send people from time to time to it's HQ, so in theory if Korea goes hot what ever High readiness unit we have in the pipe is loading onto C17, C-130s and what ever else possible. We have no internal strategic sea lift capability so we would need to us American help to get a battle groups equipment over to Korea quickly.
I read an article today (linked below) US intelligence thinks DPRK has atleast 60 nuclear weapons, and attempting to neutralize or secure them would be extremely challenging. 

http://americanmilitarynews.com/2017/08/us-intelligence-north-korea-can-now-fit-nuclear-warheads-on-missiles-and-may-have-60-bombs/?utm_medium=facebook&utm_campaign=alt&utm_source=amn


----------



## The Bread Guy

Question for discussion:  if the U.S. strikes back, does it HAVE to be nuke on the first go-round?

Also, for the record, the "we've got plans for Guam" statement (source - with CAVEATS re:  PRK getting your IP or "sharing" nasty things) - screen capture from PRK Ministry of Foreign Affairs attached.


> *KPA Will Take Practical Action: Commander of Strategic Force*
> Posted on: 2017-08-10
> Categories: News
> 
> General Kim Rak Gyom, commander of the Strategic Force of the Korean People’s Army, released the following statement on August 9:
> 
> As already clarified, the Strategic Force of the KPA is seriously examining the plan for an enveloping strike at Guam through simultaneous fire of four Hwasong-12 intermediate-range strategic ballistic rockets in order to interdict the enemy forces on major military bases on Guam and to signal a crucial warning to the U.S.
> 
> On Tuesday, the KPA Strategic Force through a statement of its spokesman fully warned the U.S. against its all-round sanctions on the DPRK and moves of maximizing military threats to it. But the U.S. president at a gold links again let out a load of nonsense about “fire and fury,” failing to grasp the on-going grave situation. This is extremely getting on the nerves of the infuriated Hwasong artillerymen of the KPA.
> 
> It seems that he has not yet understood the statement.
> 
> Sound dialogue is not possible with such a guy bereft of reason and only absolute force can work on him. This is the judgment made by the service personnel of the KPA Strategic Force.
> 
> The military action the KPA is about to take will be an effective remedy for restraining the frantic moves of the U.S. in the southern part of the Korean peninsula and its vicinity.
> 
> The Hwasong artillerymen of the KPA Strategic Force are replete with a strong determination to fully demonstrate once again the invincible might of the force, which has developed into a reliable nuclear force of the Workers’ Party of Korea and the world’s strongest strike service, through the planned enveloping strike targeting the U.S. imperialist bases of aggression.
> 
> The Strategic Force is also considering the plan for opening to public the historic enveloping fire at Guam, a practical action targeting the U.S. bases of aggression.
> 
> This unprecedented step is to give stronger confidence in certain victory and courage to the Korean people and help them witness the wretched plight of the U.S. imperialists.
> 
> The Hwasong-12 rockets to be launched by the KPA will cross the sky above Shimane, Hiroshima and Koichi Prefectures of Japan. They will fly 3 356.7 km for 1 065 seconds and hit the waters 30 to 40 km away from Guam.
> 
> The KPA Strategic Force will finally complete the plan until mid August and report it to the commander-in-chief of the DPRK nuclear force and wait for his order.
> 
> We keep closely watching the speech and behavior of the U.S.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

7thghoul said:
			
		

> Sounds like a job for seal team 6



Suicide mission with little hope for success, there is very little HUMIT in NK and it's unlikely he be broadcasting from his location and as I mentioned likley a couple body doubles. Being paranoid is the normal there. I would not be wanting to be at a large naval or airforce base if the US decides to strike.


----------



## The Bread Guy

In case it wasn't already clear, this from SecDef Mattis ...


> The United States and our allies have the demonstrated capabilities and unquestionable commitment to defend ourselves from an attack. Kim Jong Un should take heed of the United Nations Security Council’s unified voice, and statements from governments the world over, who agree the DPRK poses a threat to global security and stability.  The DPRK must choose to stop isolating itself and stand down its pursuit of nuclear weapons.  The DPRK should cease any consideration of actions that would lead to the end of its regime and the destruction of its people.
> 
> President Trump was informed of the growing threat last December and on taking office his first orders to me emphasized the readiness of our ballistic missile defense and nuclear deterrent forces. While our State Department is making every effort to resolve this global threat through diplomatic means, it must be noted that the combined allied militaries now possess the most precise, rehearsed and robust defensive and offensive capabilities on Earth.  The DPRK regime’s actions will continue to be grossly overmatched by ours and would lose any arms race or conflict it initiates.


----------



## Edward Campbell

While I do _believe_ that Kim Jong-un is a fruitcake ~ most likely a paranoid megalomaniac, I _doubt_ that he is actually suicidal. I _suspect_ he is "negotiating" in the only way that he and the US congress seem able to manage. (Remember that, a few years ago, the DPRK and a US administration made a deal but the US congress promptly refused to honour it when the time came to send energy supplies to the DPRK.) My worry is that, as the old saying goes, "_*there's many a slip 'twixt the cup and the lip*_," and someone, a DPRK general, might misinterpret orders from Pyongyang (or wherever the fruitcake's version of the *führerbunker* is located) and launch an attack on Guam or even Alaska.

I _think_ the US has the means to (quickly) plan and launch a well coordinated, very heavy, conventional attack on the DPRK ... but not before the DPRK fires tens of thousands of artillery shells into Seoul, creating, perhaps, a Hamburg like firestorm that will kill tens or even hundreds of thousands of South Koreans. I'm not sure anyone wants to pay that price.

I agree with John Bolton: the only solution is to reunify the Koreas, and I explained,yesterday, what I _believe_ the price for that might be.


----------



## Journeyman

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> I _think_  the US has the means to (quickly) plan and launch a well coordinated, very heavy, conventional attack on the DPRK ...


*Assuming*.... that the current President doesn't have a greater interest in getting into the history books as "_the_  guy who nuked the Evil Empire."*


* Evil Empire 2.0 -- Trump version, not Reagan's


----------



## 7thghoul

Colin P said:
			
		

> Suicide mission with little hope for success, there is very little HUMIT in NK and it's unlikely he be broadcasting from his location and as I mentioned likley a couple body doubles. Being paranoid is the normal there. I would not be wanting to be at a large naval or airforce base if the US decides to strike.



aha sorry I was just kidding about that. Should've made that clearer. Obviously there's not a clear cut solution when it comes to Kim Jong Un.


----------



## dimsum

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> I _think_ the US has the means to (quickly) plan and launch a well coordinated, very heavy, conventional attack on the DPRK ...



As long as the planners and trigger-pullers aren't any of these folks, we (in Canada) are good.   

http://www.edge.ca/2017/08/09/americans-tell-us-where-they-think-north-korea-is-on-an-unlabeled-world-map/?sc_ref=facebook


----------



## GR66

I doubt North Korea would be crazy enough to actually launch a nuclear missile.  If they did, while a very heavy US conventional response may be possible (preferable?) I suspect that President Trump could quite possibly lean toward a nuclear option.  Possibly a larger nuke(s) to take out North Korea's missile and underground nuclear facilities and possibly low yield nukes against their main air, army and naval bases to eliminate the bulk of their offensive conventional capabilities.  

Such a strong response would be as much a message to other potential nuclear states (Iran) to make perfectly clear that a WMD attack on the US or it's allies means the end of your existence as a nation.  It would also demonstrate to Russia and China that while the US might be reluctant to fight back against some types of military provocation, there is a firm line that cannot be crossed.

Not saying that I favour a nuclear response to a NK nuclear missile launch, but just suggesting a possible response from the US.

To me a more likely problem would be if NK goes ahead with their "enveloping fire" plan against Guam.  How reliable and accurate are the NK missiles?  If one of them goes off target and instead of landing 40km from the island it actually hits the island, what will the US response be?  The US wouldn't be able to ignore a ballistic missile attack on their territory, but what kind of response could they make which doesn't risk general war with North Korea?  All the economic leavers have already been pulled short of enforcing a blockade...but how do you seal the NK/China border?


----------



## mariomike

GR66 said:
			
		

> It would also demonstrate to Russia and China that while the US might be reluctant to fight back against some types of military provocation, there is a firm line that cannot be crossed.



Sounds eerily similar to the briefing notes for Dresden.

",and incidentally to show the Russians when they arrive what Bomber Command can do."


----------



## MilEME09

GR66 said:
			
		

> I doubt North Korea would be crazy enough to actually launch a nuclear missile.  If they did, while a very heavy US conventional response may be possible (preferable?) I suspect that President Trump could quite possibly lean toward a nuclear option.  Possibly a larger nuke(s) to take out North Korea's missile and underground nuclear facilities and possibly low yield nukes against their main air, army and naval bases to eliminate the bulk of their offensive conventional capabilities.
> 
> Such a strong response would be as much a message to other potential nuclear states (Iran) to make perfectly clear that a WMD attack on the US or it's allies means the end of your existence as a nation.  It would also demonstrate to Russia and China that while the US might be reluctant to fight back against some types of military provocation, there is a firm line that cannot be crossed.



Given the B61-12 which is technically still in development has reported to have a variable yield, and can be used as a earth penetration it makes it the perfect candidate for a low yield tactical nuclear strike on strategic targets. Problem is you are now using a an experimental weapon to target NK's potentially unstable nuclear stock pile, the potential fallout of the destruction of the NK stockpile with a nuclear device could be catastrophic.


----------



## Fishbone Jones

There's other ways to ensure a strategic target contamination, to make it unusable, than an atomic option. Perhaps the US will go in that direction.


----------



## George Wallace

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> .......... A Chinese invasion is not impossible, but ~ look at the maps ~ it's not a cakewalk, either. The Yalu River is a formidable obstacle and I believe the the DPRK has made all the bridges into reserved demolitions. The DPRK's army is HUGE ~ maybe poorly equipped, ineptly led and inadequately equipped, but it's BIG; the PLA is being restructured, made smaller and much more professional, but more suited to global operations, and less suited to a man-on-man slugging match or artillery duel against North Korea.



At the same time, could one not think of the Yalu River as North Korea's "Maginot Line" and easily bypassed by Airborne and Amphibious troops?


----------



## 7thghoul

PM Turnbull of Australia officially backs the US should conflict arise between US and North Korea under the ANZUS Treaty. 

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/aug/11/turnbull-pledges-support-to-us


----------



## The Bread Guy

An interesting op-ed from the Chinese Communist Party's media - highlights mine - shared under the Fair Dealing provisions of the _Copyright Act (R.S.C., 1985, c. C-42)_ ...


> *Reckless game over the Korean Peninsula runs risk of real war*
> Global Times Published: 2017/8/10 23:23:40
> 
> The US and North Korea have both ramped up their threatening rhetoric. The Pentagon has prepared plans for B-1B strategic bombers to make preemptive strikes on North Korea's missile sites. US Secretary of Defense James Mattis issued an ultimatum to North Korea on Wednesday to "cease any consideration of actions that would lead to the end of its regime and destruction of its people."
> 
> Meanwhile, North Korea issued plans to fire four intermediate-range missiles to land 30-40 kilometers from Guam and claimed it would finalize the plan by mid-August.
> 
> Some people in Guam have already expressed panic for the first time after the end of the Cold War. The US has already got the worst of the confrontation with North Korea.
> 
> Many people believe the possibility of war is very low. If war really breaks out, the US can hardly reap any strategic harvest and North Korea will face unprecedented risks. North Korea aims to propel the US to negotiate with it, while the US wants to put North Korea in check. Neither can achieve its goal, so they compete to escalate tensions, but neither wants to take the initiative to launch a war.
> 
> The real danger is that such a reckless game may lead to miscalculations and a strategic "war." That is to say, neither Washington nor Pyongyang really wants war, but a war could break out anyway as they do not have the experience of putting such an extreme game under control.
> 
> In the near future, it would be highly sensitive if US B-1B fighter jets fly over the Korean Peninsula or North Korea launches missiles in the direction of Guam. Both sides would upgrade their alert to the highest level. The uncertainty in the Korean Peninsula is growing.
> 
> *Beijing is not able to persuade Washington or Pyongyang to back down at this time. It needs to make clear its stance to all sides and make them understand that when their actions jeopardize China's interests, China will respond with a firm hand.
> 
> China should also make clear that if North Korea launches missiles that threaten US soil first and the US retaliates, China will stay neutral. If the US and South Korea carry out strikes and try to overthrow the North Korean regime and change the political pattern of the Korean Peninsula, China will prevent them from doing so.*
> 
> China opposes both nuclear proliferation and war in the Korean Peninsula. It will not encourage any side to stir up military conflict, and will firmly resist any side which wants to change the status quo of the areas where China's interests are concerned. It is hoped that both Washington and Pyongyang can exercise restraint. *The Korean Peninsula is where the strategic interests of all sides converge, and no side should try to be the absolute dominator of the region.*


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Evacuate all the families of service personal from Korea, that would send more of a message of how serious you are then any flight. Then start sealifting ammunition and supplies.


----------



## tomahawk6

Fake news. This is classic SOP for the DPRK to threaten until the West caves and payoff the regime.We are at this juncture because Clinton in 1999 made a deal with Kim Jong Il where they would discontinue their nuclear program. The fact that the North has nukes is not new either or that they have acheived miniaturization. Dont forget that they have been working closely with Iran. Iran has the better missile tech and the North has nukes so all we need is for Iran to show that they can place a nuke on one of their missiles. Still worried about North Korea ?


----------



## SeaKingTacco

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> Fake news. This is classic SOP for the DPRK to threaten until the West caves and payoff the regime.We are at this juncture because Clinton in 1999 made a deal with Kim Jong Il where they would discontinue their nuclear program. The fact that the North has nukes is not new either or that they have acheived miniaturization. Dont forget that they have been working closely with Iran. Iran has the better missile tech and the North has nukes so all we need is for Iran to show that they can place a nuke on one of their missiles. Still worried about North Korea ?



What if this is all a smoke screen? A mis-direction? What if the Iranians are paying the North Koreans to do their nuclear program? Who is watching the Iranians right now?


----------



## tomahawk6

SeaKingTacco said:
			
		

> What if this is all a smoke screen? A mis-direction? What if the Iranians are paying the North Koreans to do their nuclear program? Who is watching the Iranians right now?



Mossad


----------



## brihard

The Iranians are fundamentally rational. Yes, they are a rival bordering on enemy, but they have a productive, intelligent, reasonably educated population and a large global diaspora. Iranians have a sense of what's going on in the world and where they fit. Iranians can keep Iran in check and know that their interests cease being served by confrontation pst a certain point.

DPRK's population, conversely, is possessed of extremely limited awareness of the real state of affairs. Information is so controlled, the state is so completely enmeshed in day to day life, that the population is far less able to meaningfully restrain its government. The regime is able to call all the shots.

Unfortunately the DPRK regime is, at absolute best, behaving in such a manner as to appear irrational as their own deterrent. More dangerously, they may actually believe their own propaganda and BS- the may have stated into the abyss long enough for it to be staring back. Like a desperate gambler at the roulette wheel, they're doubling their bet with each consecutive loss, hoping to make their original bet back if they keep going long enough, but not recognizing they can only afford one or two more spins before they're broke.

I lithe Trump. He disgusts me in every way. On this issue however, he's playing hardball in a way no prior president has. It may be that that is the only way to deter the brinksmanship- "fine, keep lipping off, but you throw a punch, we destroy your capability to throw another one. You launch a nuke, we turn you to glass".

It remains to be seen whether North Korea can recognize in time that the rule book, on our side, has been rewritten under the new US presidency.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

NK will sell their nuke tech to whoever pays, Pakistan's Khan was working to give nuke tech to other Sunni Nations, so likely Pakistan will supply KSA with the nuke tech when needed and NK will sell theirs to Iran. Iran will use theirs as deterrence and a cover while they exert direct action through their proxy forces.


----------



## mariomike

Brihard said:
			
		

> I lithe Trump.



Did you mean loath?


----------



## brihard

mariomike said:
			
		

> Did you mean loath?



Er... yeah. Thank you. "Lithe" and "Trump" isn't something I should ever combine, lol. Thanks autocorrect.


----------



## a_majoor

President Trump has been very consistent with other messages like immigration, jobs and trade for decades, perhaps it is worth a look at his position on the DPRK:

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/leahbarkoukis/2017/08/09/flashback-heres-what-trump-told-tim-russert-in-1999-about-launching-preemptive-strike-against-nk-n2366459?utm_source=thdailypm&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=nl_pm&newsletterad=



> *Flashback: Here's What Trump Told Tim Russert in 1999 About Launching a Preemptive Strike Against NK*
> Leah Barkoukis Leah Barkoukis |Posted: Aug 09, 2017 8:30 AM
> 
> Tim Russert interviewing @realDonaldTrump in 1999 about launching a pre-emptive strike against North Korea.
> Could be key to his thinking. pic.twitter.com/PRbDA9r6Jp
> — Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) June 20, 2017
> 
> "You say ... as president, you would be willing to launch a preemptive strike against North Korea's nuclear capability,” Russert said.
> 
> "First I'd negotiate. I would negotiate like crazy,” Trump responded. “And I'd make sure that we tried to get the best deal possible. Look, Tim. If a man walks up to you on a street in Washington, because this doesn't happen, of course, in New York ... and puts a gun to your head and says give me your money, wouldn't you rather know where he's coming from before he had the gun in his hand?”
> 
> Trump went on to say the biggest threat the world faced was nuclear proliferation. He also stressed the importance of solving the problem then—nearly 20 years ago.
> 
> "Taking out their nuclear potential would create a fallout," Russert pointed out.
> 
> "Tim, do you know that this country gave them nuclear reactors, free fuel for 10 years. We virtually tried to bribe them into stopping and they're continuing to do what they're doing. And they're laughing at us, they think we're a bunch of dummies. I'm saying that we have to do something to stop," Trump replied.
> 
> “You want to do it in five years when they have warheads all over the place, every one of them pointing to New York City, to Washington and every one of our -- is that when you want to do it? Or do you want to do something now?” Trump added.
> 
> The interview resurfaced after President Trump threatened Pyongyang with “fire and fury like the world has never seen” if the rogue regime continues making threats.


----------



## 7thghoul

> Japan deployed its Patriot missile defence system on Saturday (Aug 12), after North Korea threatened to fire ballistic missiles over the country towards the US Pacific territory of Guam, local officials and reports said.



http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/japan-deploys-missile-defence-over-north-korea-threat-to-guam-reports

Anyone heard where China stands on the issue with Guam? So far it seems they're playing it very neutral with the goal of maintaining _stability_ in the region. I assume the way things are going if this Guam launch does indeed take place that the US will at least strike back. This of course draws Australia (and potentially us? UK?) into conflict or high readiness for conflict with NK.


----------



## ModlrMike

Upthread there's a posting that describes China's intent:



> Beijing is not able to persuade Washington or Pyongyang to back down at this time. It needs to make clear its stance to all sides and make them understand that when their actions jeopardize China's interests, China will respond with a firm hand.
> 
> China should also make clear that if North Korea launches missiles that threaten US soil first and the US retaliates, China will stay neutral. If the US and South Korea carry out strikes and try to overthrow the North Korean regime and change the political pattern of the Korean Peninsula, China will prevent them from doing so.
> 
> China opposes both nuclear proliferation and war in the Korean Peninsula. It will not encourage any side to stir up military conflict, and will firmly resist any side which wants to change the status quo of the areas where China's interests are concerned. It is hoped that both Washington and Pyongyang can exercise restraint. The Korean Peninsula is where the strategic interests of all sides converge, and no side should try to be the absolute dominator of the region.



That seems pretty clear to me.


----------



## Retired AF Guy

7thghoul said:
			
		

> Anyone heard where China stands on the issue with Guam? So far it seems they're playing it very neutral with the goal of maintaining _stability_ in the region. I assume the way things are going if this Guam launch does indeed take place that the US will at least strike back. This of course draws Australia (and potentially us? UK?) into conflict or high readiness for conflict with NK.



From yesterdays Washington Post:



> China won’t come to North Korea’s help if it launches missiles threatening U.S. soil and there is retaliation, a state-owned newspaper warned on Friday, but it would intervene if Washington strikes first.



More at  Link


----------



## 7thghoul

http://archive.is/lXxhw

for discussion: Is North Korea's threat more nuclear, or conventional?



> Contrary to what you may think, North Korea’s nuclear threat isn’t what most people should be worried about. It’s actually its artillery and conventional missiles, scattered all around the Korean Peninsula, that are the real threat. Even the sneakiest pre-emptive strike from the US-South Korean military forces couldn’t take all of these out in time for Seoul and parts of Japan to suffer from retaliatory strikes by the DPRK.


----------



## a_majoor

7thghoul said:
			
		

> http://archive.is/lXxhw
> 
> for discussion: Is North Korea's threat more nuclear, or conventional?



Good question. Don't forget only 1/3 of Seoul is under direct threat by artillery, and if the hostilities open with an allied time on target strike, a great deal of the artillery, rockets and the logistical support for them to work will be eliminated very quickly. I suspect that this is considered acceptable since the ABM interceptor networks established by the ROK, Japan and the US (particularly the US Navy ships patrolling off the coast) will now have  a very limited set of threats to deal with in any retaliatory strikes. Going after the logistical and C3 nodes will be extremely effective against the DPRK's remaining forces, since they are still largely 2GW forces with far less flexibility than the conventional forces facing then from the ROK and US side of the DMZ.

The real wild cards will be the DPRK's special forces, particularly those infiltrated into the ROK prior to any hostilities commencing, and whatever WMD remain in the possession of the DPRK after a time on target strike. I imagine the ROK, United States and anyone else involved are working overtime to locate as much as possible and reduce the uncertainty created by the existence of DPRK unconventional capabilities.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Well, well, well ...


> *The secret to North Korea’s ICBM success*
> _How has North Korea managed to make such astounding progress with its long-range missile programme over the last two years? Here, Michael Elleman shares *the first solid evidence that North Korea has acquired a high-performance liquid-propellant engine from illicit networks in Russia and Ukraine*._
> Date: 14 August 2017
> By Michael Elleman, Senior Fellow for Missile Defence, International Institute for Strategic Studies
> 
> North Korea’s missile programme has made astounding strides over the past two years. An arsenal that had been based on short- and medium-range missiles along with an intermediate-range Musudan that repeatedly failed flight tests, has suddenly been supplemented by two new missiles: the intermediate-range Hwasong-12 and the intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), Hwasong-14. No other country has transitioned from a medium-range capability to an ICBM in such a short time. What explains this rapid progression? The answer is simple. North Korea has acquired a high-performance liquid-propellant engine (LPE) from a foreign source.
> 
> Available evidence clearly indicates that the LPE is based on the Soviet RD-250 family of engines, and has been modified to operate as the boosting force for the Hwasong-12 and -14. An unknown number of these engines were probably acquired though illicit channels operating in Russia and/or Ukraine. North Korea’s need for an alternative to the failing Musudan and the recent appearance of the RD-250 engine along with other evidence, suggests the transfers occurred within the past two years ...


More @ link - also attached if link doesn't work for you.


----------



## a_majoor

A somewhat more positive interpretation of the US efforts:

http://observer.com/2017/08/donald-trump-north-korea-diplomatic-military-strategy/



> *Trump’s Full-Court Press Is Squeezing the Nukes Out of North Korea*
> The hermit kingdom is starting to blink now that China isn’t its shield
> By Austin Bay • 08/14/17 8:00am
> 
> In March of this year, the Trump foreign policy team of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis, and the Tweeter-in-Chief himself began a coordinated attack on Kim Jong-un’s regime, with the interim goals of disrupting its political and military plans, psychologically rattling its leaders, and exposing the regime’s grave weaknesses. The ultimate goal was to set conditions for achieving the long-range goal: denuclearizing the Korean peninsula.
> 
> The great Chinese strategist Sun Tzu said that the best strategy is to attack the enemy’s plans. With a soldier-scholar like Jim Mattis in the Trump administration, a stroke or two of Sun Tzu should surprise no one.
> 
> As a result, the Trump team is taking diplomatic, economic and military actions—not drawing feckless rhetorical red lines. Its actions are seizing the initiative, limiting the enemy’s options, and exploiting the enemy’s weakness. These actions are designed to force the thugs in Pyongyang to ditch their nuclear weapons and quietly rot within the starving confines of their Communist gulag.
> 
> * * *
> 
> We aren’t engaged in a game. This is the latest phase of the Korean War. Though war is not a sport, some sports analogies are instructive. Basketball’s full-court press is a defensive attack on the offense’s “plan” to score—which would be a sportscaster’s description of the Trump administration’s North Korea policy. In basketball, teams employ a relentless full-court press to degrade an opponent’s ability to move the ball, deny easy shot attempts, and disrupt shots the opponent takes. “Pressing” teams try to force their opponents to make mistakes that lead to turnovers. A sustained press that forces mistakes dispirits an opponent.
> 
> The U.S. can do more than run an aggressive defense. America, when it decides to use it, has the premier global offense. North Korea cannot “press” American power; it can only provoke it.
> 
> And it has provoked America to the point that Trump is promising fire and fury.
> 
> * * *
> 
> Employing diplomacy, economic power, military power and information power (the ability to gather and communicate intelligence) in concert is a geo-strategic full-court press.
> 
> The acronym for the four elements of geo-strategic power is DIME: “Diplomatic,” “Information,” “Military” and “Economic” power. Coordinating these elements creates a synergistic force whose sum is greater than its parts. I explained this to an eighth grade history class and the kids got it. Diplomacy was my index finger, Information the middle finger, Military the ring finger, and Economic power the little finger. Individually, the fingers poke, but together they form a fist.
> 
> I showed the kids my fist and threw a punch in the air. I told them that in other circumstances this wasn’t a weapon but a grip on a tool. They got that, too.
> 
> Unfortunately, coordinating the elements of power is very difficult. The U.S. government’s civilian agencies don’t play well together—protecting their budgets and their political turf in the Washington swamp is their first priority. So in the field the military does it all ad hoc. Company, field grade and general officers become diplomats in helmets. Combat engineers are developmental aid experts.
> 
> * * *
> 
> Yet the Trump administration is using all elements of power in a coordinated effort to denuclearize the Korean peninsula.
> 
> Start with the D for Diplomacy. The U.S. has forged a solid alliance committed to Korean denuclearization. The U.S., Japan, South Korea and Australia are the principle front line nations, but western European nations and key members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) add economic and political weight. India is in the background. China is the man in middle, and it knows India is in the background.
> 
> All of the east and southeast Asian nations have a common security interest in denuclearization: They are already in range of North Korean missiles.
> 
> U.S. diplomats have also succeeded in getting the UN to impose harsh economic and political sanctions on North Korea.
> 
> I for Information began in earnest with Tillerson’s declaration that the era of strategic patience with the Kim regime is over. Trump’s threats of fury and fire mock Kim Jong-un. Yes, Trump outraged the pearl-clutchers in the American foreign policy establishment. American presidents aren’t supposed to talk like that!
> 
> Except they do. Take Harry Truman for example.
> 
> The theater of threat is a key element in North Korea’s intimidation and extortion routine. Trump’s fiery threat pushed Kim Jong-un off center stage. Now Trump has the rhetorical threat initiative, not the fat kid.
> 
> Trump also has a track record for following through on a threat. In April, he punished Syrian President Bashir al-Assad for using chemical weapons. Trump isn’t seeking a legacy like Bill Clinton; he isn’t bogged down in Iraq like George Bush; and he isn’t a faculty lounge poseur like Barack Obama touting red lines then failing to back words with deeds. Trump has demonstrated that he will act. That’s important information from the bad cop.
> 
> This information is a suavely packaged threat from the good cops: National Security Adviser Lieutenant General H.R. McMaster told ABC News “…We are not closer to war than a week ago, but we are closer to war than we were a decade ago.”
> 
> This information adds spine to the bad cop and good cops’ coercive diplomacy: Pyongyang’s insistent violation of previous deals and arrangements has left Washington, Tokyo and Seoul with nil interest in conceding anything to the dictatorship, but particularly on the issues of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles.
> 
> M for Military: The U.S. and its allies have massive and modern forces. They are full spectrum forces employing everything from the bayonet to ballistic missiles, anti-ballistic missiles and cyber weapons. South Korea’s ground forces are highly-trained and well led. Japan has quietly developed offensive strike capabilities. The allies have deployed a missile defense “thin shield” that is capable of shooting down a volley of North Korean IRBMs. Trump would use the entire arsenal if he had to, and China knows this.
> 
> E is for Economic, meaning sanctions and financial restrictions. However, the most pertinent policy tool can be summarized in a tweet. Recall that Trump indicated China would have a better trade deal if it helped curb North Korea.
> 
> How is the Trump team managing to pull it off? Here’s my guess: Trump and Tillerson aren’t from the D.C. swamp. Mattis was a combat soldier who also served as a diplomat with a helmet.
> 
> * *  *
> 
> America wants China to add additional pressure. It believes China has the power to squeeze the nukes out of North Korea.
> 
> But China has its own interests—some of which conflict with U.S. interests. For example, U.S. and Chinese interests conflict in the South China Sea. On August 7, the U.S., Australia and Japan urged ASEAN to create a “South China Sea code of conduct” defining rules for resolving disputes in the region that are “legally binding, meaningful, effective, and consistent with international law.” The three nations emphasized their “strong opposition to coercive unilateral actions,” which is a direct slap at Beijing. It appears the deal being offered does not demand that China withdraw from its man-made islets.
> 
> China knows it can ill-afford a trade war with the U.S., Japan and Europe. This code of conduct amounts to a “semi-win-win” if everyone in the region agrees to it and lives by it. It is an example of coordinated diplomacy to encourage China to help denuclearize North Korea—and help itself economically and politically.
> 
> * * *
> 
> Has the Trump pressure strategy produced positive results?
> 
> North Korea has blinked, but the sensationalist mainstream media, from The New York Times to CNN, have missed it.
> 
> But the sharp minds at 38north.org didn’t. They reported, “Anyone familiar with the North’s statements knows that over the past month there has been a major shift in Pyongyang’s formulation about negotiating.”
> 
> Yet CNN quoted North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho as saying “…We will, under no circumstances, put the nukes and ballistic rockets on the negotiating table…”
> 
> 38north provided the correction:
> 
> “Unless the hostile policy and nuclear threat of the U.S. against the D.P.R.K. are fundamentally eliminated, we, under no circumstances, will put the nukes and ballistic rockets on the negotiating table and will not flinch even an inch away from our path of strengthening of the nuclear forces, which is chosen by ourselves.”
> 
> To interpret Pyongyang’s statement as the “we just might talk about getting rid of the nukes” signal it is requires that the interpreter possess certain skills.  The interpreter must know the relevant history, have common sense (a skill related to historical knowledge), pay close attention to current developments, and maintain an open mind free of ideological and emotional-political distortion. Unfortunately, the contemporary U.S. mainstream media fall short in all four skill sets.
> 
> Responding to Trump’s rhetorical fireworks, Kim threatened to fire missiles at Guam. Remember, Guam is U.S. soil.
> 
> It’s where America’s day begins.
> 
> Following that North Korean threat, Australian prime minister Malcolm Turnbull said his country would immediately come to the aid of the U.S. if North Korea attacks Guam.
> 
> Japan announced it may intercept the North Korean missiles with anti-ballistic missiles.
> 
> But here’s the big news: now China is warning North Korea that it’s on its own “if it launches missiles threatening U.S. soil and there is retaliation…” China, however, “would intervene if Washington strikes first. ”
> 
> China is clearly separating itself from the Kim regime and saying it will not defend North Korea if North Korea attacks U.S. territory. China is no longer North Korea’s shield.
> 
> Did Trump’s in-your-face provoke Kim into a rhetorical threat that went too far, one that led to the Chinese warning? Fair question to ask.
> 
> When you read or hear so-called experts argue it’s too late to stop North Korea from obtaining operational nuclear weapons—turn the channel or cancel your subscription. The suits are spewing tripe.
> 
> * * *
> 
> Blinking is a good sign, but it isn’t retreat.
> 
> In an article that appeared in The Observer on July 11, I sketched the administration’s six options for courses of action.
> 
> In the last month, we’ve seen Option 1 (another “do the right thing” bid to Beijing) pursued with a stroke or two from Option 2 (coercive diplomacy directed at China).
> 
> The interim results have reduced but not eliminated the need for Option 6 (delayed reprisal and the war to denuclearize).
> 
> However, the threat to Guam increases the probability the Trump administration will employ Option 4:
> 
> “Return of serve. This is an operation that could support several diplomatic options. The U.S., South Korea and Japan could use their ABMs to intercept every North Korean test launch. They might also employ cyber warfare to disrupt tests (perhaps they have already done so). The objective of ‘Return of Serve’ is to stymie the test program and embarrass Kim Jong-un.“
> 
> Get in his face and block his shots. Pressure basketball? No, pressure diplomacy to stop a nuclear war


----------



## The Bread Guy

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Well, well, well ...
> 
> 
> 
> *The secret to North Korea’s ICBM success*
> _How has North Korea managed to make such astounding progress with its long-range missile programme over the last two years? Here, Michael Elleman shares the first solid evidence that North Korea has acquired a high-performance liquid-propellant engine from illicit networks in Russia and Ukraine ..._
Click to expand...

Ukraine's response so far?


> *Oleksandr Turchynov: Ukrainian defense-industrial complex did not supply weapons and military technology to North Korea*
> Organization of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, 14 Aug 2017
> 
> Ukraine has always adhered to all its international commitments, therefore, Ukrainian defense and aerospace complex did not supply weapons and military technology to North Korea. This was stated by Secretary of the NSDC of Ukraine Oleksandr Turchynov in his comment.
> 
> According to him, some foreign media began to distribute false information regarding the transfer of missile technology to North Korea by "Yuzhmash".
> 
> "This information is not based on any grounds, provocative by its content, and most likely provoked by Russian secret services to cover their own crimes", - Mr. Turchynov said.
> 
> He stressed that Ukraine considers the regime of North Korea "totalitarian, dangerous and unpredictable, and supports all sanctions against this country". "As well as sanctions against the Russian Federation, the regime of which becomes increasingly similar to the North Korean", - Mr. Turchynov noted adding that since the outbreak of Russian aggression against our country in 2014, "Ukraine completely stopped supplying weapons, military equipment, and military technology to Russia".
> 
> "Ukraine has never supplied rocket engines and any missile technology to North Korea. We believe that this anti-Ukrainian campaign was triggered by Russian secret services to cover their participation in the North Korean nuclear and missile programs", - Secretary of the NSDC of Ukraine summarized.


The company's denial/response is also attached.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Some of the latest ...

_*"Kim Jong Un briefed on Guam attack plan at Strategic Force command: KCNA"*_ (nknews.org)
_*"Defense Secretary Jim Mattis on North Korea: “If they fire at US, it could escalate into war very quickly” "*_ (FOX News)
_*"Defense Secretary Jim Mattis warned on Monday that the U.S. military would be prepared to intercept a missile fired by North Korea if it was headed to Guam, while North Korean leader Kim Jong-un alerted his army that it should always be fire-ready ..."*_ (Reuters, via _Globe & Mail_)
_*"Missile alarm: US satellites observe North Korea moving missiles into position, Mattis warns of high alert"*_ (News Corp Australia)


----------



## The Bread Guy

And this from the PRK info-machine (no link included to avoid having to link there, but full screen capture attached):


> *Kim Jong Un Inspects KPA Strategic Force Command*
> 
> Pyongyang, August 15 (KCNA) -- Respected Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un inspected the Command of the Strategic Force of the Korean People's Army (KPA) on Aug. 14.
> 
> He waved back to enthusiastically cheering service members and posed for a picture with them.
> 
> He went round historical mementoes and data displayed at the Kimilsungism-Kimjongilism Study Hall.
> 
> Going round them, he looked back with deep emotion on the great leadership feats of the brilliant commanders of Mt. Paektu, recorded on every page of the history of the KPA Strategic Force displaying its might with the strength unprecedented in the world as a powerful strike service, symbolic of the dignity and power of Korea.
> 
> Then he listened to General Kim Rak Gyom's decision on the Strategic Force's plan for an enveloping fire at Guam at the command post.
> 
> He examined the plan for a long time and discussed it with the commanding officers in real earnest.
> 
> He praised the KPA Strategic Force for drawing up a close and careful plan as planned and intended by the Party and examined the firing preparations for power demonstration.
> 
> After listening to the commander of the Strategic Force that it is waiting for the order of the Party Central Committee after rounding off the preparations for the enveloping fire at Guam, he said with great satisfaction that the spirit of Hwasong artillerymen is very high and he was freshly determined, seeing by himself the combat preparedness and the sky-high spirit of the Hwasong artillerymen of the large combined unit.
> 
> He said that the U.S. imperialists caught the noose around their necks due to their reckless military confrontation racket, adding that he would watch a little more the foolish and stupid conduct of the Yankees spending a hard time of every minute of their miserable lot.
> 
> He said that he wants to advise the U.S., which is driving the situation on the Korean peninsula into the touch-and-go situation, running helter-skelter, to take into full account gains and losses with clear head whether the prevailing situation is more unfavorable for any party.
> 
> In order to defuse the tensions and prevent the dangerous military conflict on the Korean peninsula, it is necessary for the U.S. to make a proper option first and show it through action, as it committed provocations after introducing huge nuclear strategic equipment into the vicinity of the peninsula, he said, adding that the U.S. should stop at once arrogant provocations against the DPRK and unilateral demands and not provoke it any longer.
> 
> He said that if the Yankees persist in their extremely dangerous reckless actions on the Korean peninsula and in its vicinity, testing the self-restraint of the DPRK, the latter will make an important decision as it already declared, warning the U.S. that it should think reasonably and judge properly not to suffer shame that it is hit by the DPRK again.
> 
> He said that if the planned fire of power demonstration is carried out as the U.S. is going more reckless, it will be the most delightful historic moment when the Hwasong artillerymen will wring the windpipes of the Yankees and point daggers at their necks, underlining the need to be always ready for launching to go into action anytime once our Party decides.
> 
> Looking round a military training school and gymnasium, he called for firmly establishing Juche in education and steadily improving the quality of military training and thus preparing all the artillerymen of the large combined units to be fighters capable of waging campaign of brains, who perfectly mastered the modern military science and technology, the enemy's changed war methods and Korean-style war methods against them.
> 
> He underscored the need to certainly establish the system of reeducating commanding officers and technicians of the Strategic Force in line with the modernization and upgrading of ballistic rockets.
> 
> Going round the supply service facilities of the large combined unit including the dining hall of sub-unit, he took warm care of the solders' life as their real father would do.
> 
> He enjoyed a performance given by the art squad of the large combined unit at the solders hall.
> 
> He expressed satisfaction over the good performance given by members of the art squad through numbers vividly representing the operational mission and features of the Strategic Force and desire, thoughts and feelings of the Hwasong artillerymen, and gave precious teachings for performance.
> 
> The Strategic Force has a very important position and duty in carrying out the strategic plans of the Workers' Party of Korea, he said, stressing the need for the Strategic Force to firmly establish the monolithic leadership system, command and management system of the Supreme Commander over the nuclear force and further complete the Juche-oriented rocket strike methods.
> 
> Giving teachings of great trust that he remains confident thanks to the KPA Strategic Force, reliable treasured sword guaranteeing the everlasting future of the country and nation, he expressed expectation and belief that all the officers and men of the Strategic Force would bring about a fresh turn in rounding off combat preparations, bearing in mind the important mission they have assumed before the Party, the country and the people.
> 
> The officers and men of the KPA Strategic Force, who received great trust from him, were firmly determined to score the final victory in the standoff with the U.S. by scorching with super strong strike the targets in south Korea, Japan, operational area in the Pacific and the U.S. mainland, flying the sacred red flags of the Party and flags of the supreme commander at every matchless launching pad once he gives an order.
> 
> Accompanying him were KPA Vice Marshal Hwang Pyong So, director of the KPA General Political Bureau, and Kim Jong Sik, vice department director of the C.C., the Workers' Party of Korea. -0-
> (2017.08.15)


----------



## Cloud Cover

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> _*"Missile alarm: US satellites observe North Korea moving missiles into position, Mattis warns of high alert"*_ (News Corp Australia)



They (DPRK) must be using Google "transhate" again:

"The US Imperialists caught the noose around their necks due to their reckless military confrontation racket ... (but) he would watch a little more the foolish and stupid conduct of the Yankees spending a hard time of every minute of their miserable lot,” the report says.
“If the planned fire of our demonstration is carried out as the US is going more reckless, it will be the most delightful historic moment when the Hwasong artillerymen will wring the windpipes of the Yankees and point daggers at their necks.”

Scary guys eh?  The miserable lot of the 7th fleet must be busy today.


----------



## Cloud Cover

Brihard said:
			
		

> Er... yeah. Thank you. "Lithe" and "Trump" isn't something I should ever combine, lol. Thanks autocorrect.



.... there isn't a pee pee video tape....


----------



## The Bread Guy

Cloud Cover said:
			
		

> They (DPRK) must be using Google "transhate" again ...


No better than early Taliban propaganda, but they were still capable of doing damage ...


			
				Cloud Cover said:
			
		

> Scary guys eh?  The miserable lot of the 7th fleet must be busy today.


 :nod:


----------



## The Bread Guy

Some less pessimistic takes ....

_*"Kim Jong-un appeared on Tuesday to signal a pause in the escalating war of words with Donald Trump, saying he was prepared to watch US actions in the region “a little more” before ordering a planned launch of North Korean missiles aimed at the US territory of Guam.*  The North Korean leader was quoted by the state press agency KCNA after conducting a tour of the country’s missile command. But he warned he could still order a missile launch aimed at the seas around Guam if the US carried out further provocations ..."_ (_The Guardian_ - UK)
_*"North Korea’s Kim appears to ease rhetoric in standoff over nuclear weapons"*_ (_Washington Post_)
_*"North Korea's Kim holds off on Guam missile plan; Seoul says will prevent war by all means"*_ (Reuters)


----------



## Kat Stevens

Hopefully the twisted little midjit has seen that the US is not going to blink first this time, and he may just be talking his country down a path even grimmer than the one it was already on.  Not holding my breath, though.


----------



## PuckChaser

Jong-Un flinched. He was testing Trump, and rapidly got the vibe he wasn't going to be able to do whatever he wanted anymore.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Kat Stevens said:
			
		

> Hopefully the twisted little midjit has seen that the US is not going to blink first this time, and he may just be talking his country down a path even grimmer than the one it was already on.  Not holding my breath, though.





			
				PuckChaser said:
			
		

> Jong-Un flinched. He was testing Trump, and rapidly got the vibe he wasn't going to be able to do whatever he wanted anymore.


Fingers crossed on both counts ...


----------



## 7thghoul

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/08/north-korea-leader-briefed-guam-missile-test-plans-170814234449710.html

NK currently standing down to "see what the US does". They know they're totally boned if they fire the first shot of the war. Hopefully this doesn't lead Trump into being goaded into some shit with China backing NK.


----------



## Kat Stevens

Smartest thing he could do would be to ratchet the alert status back, excluding missile defence, and make a great show of paying attention to other doings. Kim knows where the line is now and how close he is to crossing it. There's still more than enough firepower in the region to vaporize Korea if push comes to shove.


----------



## The Bread Guy

U.S. int source to Reuters:  PRK doesn't need to import rocket engines from Ukraine ...


> North Korea has the ability to produce missile engines and intelligence suggests the country does not need to rely on imports of engines, U.S. intelligence officials said on Tuesday.
> 
> "We have intelligence to suggest that North Korea is not reliant on imports of engines. Instead, we judge they have the ability to produce the engines themselves," one of the officials told Reuters ...


----------



## The Bread Guy

This from the Pentagon Info-machine ...


> *Exercise Ulchi Freedom Guardian 2017*
> Release No: NR-296-17
> Aug. 18, 2017
> 
> The Republic of Korea and United States Combined Forces Command will begin the annual Ulchi Freedom Guardian exercise on Aug. 21 and will be continued through – Aug. 31, 2017. UFG is computer simulated defensive exercise designed to enhance readiness, protect the region and maintain stability on the Korean peninsula. There will be approximately 17,500 total U.S. service members participating, with approximately 3,000 coming from off-peninsula. U.S. forces will join ROK military forces from major ROK units representing all services, as well as ROK government participants. In addition to the ROK and U.S. forces, UN Command forces from seven sending states, including Australia, *Canada*, Columbia, Denmark, New Zealand, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom, will participate in this UFG ...


... this from Global News:


> The Canadian Armed Forces are sending 15 personnel to support a joint South Korean and American exercise as tensions between North Korea and the U.S. remain high.
> 
> The exercise, called ULCHI Freedom Guardian, is set to begin on Monday.
> 
> It’s expected to last until Aug. 31, the Pentagon said in a statement Friday.
> 
> (...)
> 
> According to the Department of National Defence (DND), ULCHI Freedom Guardian is an annual international training event designed to “practice scenarios of provocation, regional and international crisis management, and conflict transition on the Korean Peninsula.”
> 
> “Approximately 15 CAF personnel, primarily from Canadian Joint Operations Command… will train alongside counterparts from the United States, the Republic of Korea, and other United Nations Command partners to strengthen defensive capabilities in the region,” a spokesperson for the DND confirmed ...


----------



## a_majoor

While the threat from the DPRK has accelerated the program, this also has implications for China. Imagine if all the nations in the First Island Chain follow suit?

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/08/17/national/politics-diplomacy/japan-plans-installation-land-based-aegis-missile-defense-system-amid-north-korea-threats/#.WZh6NIqQxPM



> Japan plans installation of land-based Aegis missile defense system amid North Korea threats
> KYODO
> AUG 17, 2017
> ARTICLE HISTORY
> PRINT SHARE
> WASHINGTON – The Defense Ministry plans to introduce a land-based Aegis missile defense system to respond to North Korea’s missile threats and will seek funding in the next fiscal year to cover system design costs, a government source said Wednesday.
> 
> The ministry had been considering a budgetary request to conduct studies on the installation of the so-called Aegis Ashore system, but expedited the schedule amid a series of ballistic missile test launches by Pyongyang, according to the source.
> 
> The ministry also plans to budget a space unit that will be created within the Self-Defense Forces to protect satellites used by Japan and the United States to detect ballistic missile launches, among other purposes.
> 
> Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera is expected to explain the plans to the U.S. government during his current visit to Washington, with Foreign Minister Taro Kono, for talks Thursday with U.S. counterparts.
> 
> In the budgetary request, to be submitted by the end of August, the ministry will leave open the actual sum it expects to pay for design of the Aegis Ashore program, because of the need for consultations with the United States, the source said.
> 
> But the ministry expects to finalize the costs by the end of the year when the government will draw up the fiscal 2018 budget plan.
> 
> Under Japan’s current multitier ballistic missile defense system, the Maritime Self-Defense Force’s Aegis destroyers equipped with Standard Missile-3 interceptors are tasked with stopping missiles in the outer atmosphere.
> 
> If they fail, the Air Self-Defense Force’s Patriot Advanced Capability-3 surface-to-air guided interceptors are the next line of defense against missile attacks.
> 
> Aegis Ashore uses the same components that are currently fitted to MSDF Aegis destroyers, but the system is land-based. It would also be easier for the SDF to prepare for missile intercepts using a permanent system installation.
> 
> The government is likely to start selecting candidate sites at the same time. The introduction of the new system will “largely” strengthen Japan’s missile defense, according to a ministry source, but some critics say it could increase tension in the surrounding region.
> 
> One estimate has shown that an Aegis Ashore unit costs about ¥80 billion ($728 million). The total expenses could balloon as the government will also need funds to purchase the land where the system will be installed. It is also unclear how long Japan will have to wait before it can start operating the system, and time will be required to train SDF members in its use.
> 
> New interceptors now being developed by the United States and Japan, known as SM-3 Block IIA, can also be launched from Aegis Ashore sites. This would potentially help Japan expand its defense coverage, and improve its accuracy.
> 
> Following North Korea’s threat last week to launch four ballistic missiles toward the U.S. territory of Guam, Japan has deployed the PAC-3 system to four prefectures in western regions that the missiles may fly over.
> 
> PAC-3 coverage is believed to extend its radius to within several dozens of kilometers, with the system deployed in areas of particular importance.
> 
> The Japanese Defense Ministry is also eager to bring forward the deadline, currently set at the end of March next year, for a plan to increase the number of Aegis ships from the current four to five. Officials are now looking to achieve this by the end of this year, the government source said.
> 
> Tokyo has been increasingly concerned about North Korea’s nuclear and missile development programs, saying that they have reached “a new level of threat.”


----------



## Kat Stevens

Don't worry about Korean missiles, man, there are statues of old dead guys to pull down!


----------



## EpicBeardedMan

Kat Stevens said:
			
		

> Don't worry about Korean missiles, man, there are statues of old dead guys to pull down!



 :rofl:


----------



## jmt18325

That would be funny, were it not so ignorant of actual US history.


----------



## Kat Stevens

jmt18325 said:
			
		

> That would be funny, were it not so ignorant of actual US history.



Either get a sense of humour, or go take a flying fuck at a rolling donut, you have absolutely zero idea of what I know about anything. Your condescending smarminess is not appreciated. I can't fully understand the burden you bear of being the smartest kid in the room, all the fucking time, nor that of being the paragon of all things correct. You must be exhausted. I bet you're a riot at parties. Climb down off your column, hero.


----------



## jmt18325

Kat Stevens said:
			
		

> Either get a sense of humour, or go take a flying frig at a rolling donut,



Say something funny and I'll laugh.  Making light of the mistreatment of an entire group of people throughout US history while at the same time making fun of a possible nuclear holocaust isn't something that I find particularly funny.


----------



## jollyjacktar

I have to agree with the sentiment that you don't seem to find much amusing, jmt.  I'm sure that most SJWs must smile in humour from time to time.


----------



## jmt18325

jollyjacktar said:
			
		

> I have to agree with the sentiment that you don't seem to find much amusing, jmt.  I'm sure that most SJWs must smile in humour from time to time.



Conservatives and liberals tend to have a different sense of humour - not sure why that is.


----------



## jollyjacktar

Different viewpoints, I suppose.


----------



## Baz

In the interest of full disclosure, and since I think the Left Right (Liberal Conservative) scale is somewhat meaningless in of itself, as has been discussed in other threads... on a political grid I would place myself, and have always tested, as Leftist and Libertarian leaning but right on the edge of being a centrist.

As such I think anybody at the extremes is just that: extreme.  Extremists have there place to pull the discussion, but I think if you find yourself at the extreme than you may not be considering all the facts.  Obviously just my opinion.

So, JMT, I *lean* towards how you think, but often reading what you say, I genuinely wonder what your motivation of being here is: are you trying to change everyone's opinion that doesn't agree with you?

The reason I ask is that I completely understand that this board, and the military, will tend to Right, and I'm actually honestly inquisitive if they would be Authoritarian or Libetarian?  But by choosing to be here, that will be part of the discourse.  I may not always agree with them but what is the point of poking that particular nest in it's own backyard?

And with that, I think I'll go back to being one of the many in the center saying "shut up, shut up, shut up..." but yet can't help watch with fascination as the edges do their best to drag us over whichever edge they are sitting on.


----------



## Scott

If we can keep it less personal when addressing one another, and debating viewpoints, please.


----------



## jmt18325

Baz said:
			
		

> So, JMT, I *lean* towards how you think, but often reading what you say, I genuinely wonder what your motivation of being here is: are you trying to change everyone's opinion that doesn't agree with you?



I'm having a discussion.  Nothing more, nothing less.


----------



## Baz

jmt18325 said:
			
		

> I'm having a discussion.  Nothing more, nothing less.



Fair enough.


----------



## Inspir

In regards to ICBM interseption, or lack thereof maybe, do we have any weapon platforms that could do the job? Seen recently that a missile launched from North Korea would take approximately 25 minutes to reach Vancouver. I've also seen an example of an F15 shooting down an orbiting satellite but never heard of the ability to do the same to an incoming ICMB. Do our frigates have the capability?


----------



## The Bread Guy

The latest from PRK -- original statement here (with usual caveats re:  clicking on web pages of nasty regimes & giving them your info), archived page here (safer) and text of statement also attached ...


> *Kim Jong Un Inspects Chemical Material Institute of Academy of Defense Science*
> _North Korea Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Posted on: 2017-08-23 _
> 
> Kim Jong Un, chairman of the Workers’ Party of Korea, chairman of the State Affairs Commission of the DPRK and supreme commander of the Korean People’s Army, gave field guidance to the Chemical Material Institute of the Academy of Defense Science.
> 
> Shaking hands with officials who came out to greet him, respected Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un said that he came to learn about the situation of the institute and help its work. He noted that in recent years the institute has a lot of jobs in a patriotic drive for breaking through the cutting edge, whether they are known or not, true to the Workers’ Party of Korea’s policy of attaching importance to the defense science and technology and policy of the munitions industry.
> 
> After looking round the newly-built room for the education in the revolutionary history and exhibition hall of scientific and technological achievements, he learned about the processes for manufacturing ICBM warhead tip and solid-fuel rocket engine.
> 
> Acquainting himself with the processes for preform weaving by carbon fiber, chemical deposition, high pressure liquid deposition and final treatment, he learned about in detail the density of perform, deposition temperature, vacuum degree and deposition time in the chemical deposition process, deposition temperature, pressure, working medium and deposition frequency in the high pressure liquid deposition process and technological specifications in the final treatment process.
> 
> He then made a field survey of the process for manufacturing solid-fuel rocket engine and specified tasks and ways for normalizing the production at a higher level.
> 
> He set forth important tasks facing the institute.
> 
> He instructed the institute to produce more solid-fuel rocket engines and rocket warhead tips by further expanding engine production process and the production capacity of rocket warhead tips and engine jets by carbon/carbon compound material.
> 
> Highly appreciating that it is the pride of our Party to have such unassuming heroes, unit of patriotic scientists as the officials of this institute who have devoted themselves to carrying out the Party’s policy of defense science, keeping in mind the pure single mind of loyalty to the Party, whether they are appreciated or not, and gave special thanks and special bonus to them in the name of the Party Central Committee.
> 
> He had a photo session with the scientists, technicians and workers of the Chemical Material Institute of the Academy of Defense Science.
> 
> Accompanying him were Jo Yong Won and Kim Jong Sik, vice department directors of the C.C., the Workers’ Party of Korea.


----------



## jollyjacktar

Strange sight.  



> White North Korean sons of US soldier who defected in the 60s appear in a video threatening to 'wipe out' America if Trump launches strikes - as they confirm the death of their father
> -James Joseph Dresnok was facing court martial when he fled to North Korea
> -He was the last known living defector to North Korea from the US military
> -Dresnok married kidnapped Romanian woman in the late 1970s
> -The couple had two children, James and Ted, who are in the North Korean Army
> 
> Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4815946/Sons-defector-North-Korea-threaten-Donald-Trump.html#ixzz4qakXEo72
> Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook


----------



## SeaKingTacco

Inspir said:
			
		

> In regards to ICBM interseption, or lack thereof maybe, do we have any weapon platforms that could do the job? Seen recently that a missile launched from North Korea would take approximately 25 minutes to reach Vancouver. I've also seen an example of an F15 shooting down an orbiting satellite but never heard of the ability to do the same to an incoming ICMB. Do our frigates have the capability?



No.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Keep poking, buddy, keep poking ...


> *North Korea has fired a missile that passed over northern Japan early on Tuesday, the Japanese government said.*
> 
> The government’s J-Alert warning system advised people in the area to take precautions, but the public broadcaster NHK said there was no sign of damage.
> 
> The unprecedented move is the latest act of aggression by the communist state since it fired several short-range missiles into the Sea of Japan three days ago following comments from President Trump that he would meet any threats from North Korea with “fire and fury”.
> 
> The Japanese military did not attempt to shoot down the missile which was fired from Pyongyang and passed over Japanese territory at about 6.06am local time (2106 GMT) towards the sea between the Korean Peninsula and Japan.
> 
> Despite early reports urging people in Tohoku to take refuge in solid buildings or underground shelters, the missile landed in the sea and is understood to have broken into three pieces.
> 
> Japan’s prime minister, Shinzo Abe, said he would do all in his power to protect the Japanese public. “We will make utmost efforts to firmly protect the lives of the people,” Abe told reporters in brief remarks as he entered his office for emergency meetings about the missile firing.
> 
> South Korea said the North had fired an unidentified projectile early on Tuesday from a region near its capital eastwards towards the sea ...


More via Google News, Bing.ca News & Yahoo News.  Meanwhile, in North Korean media (non-PRK archive link here) ...


> *DPRK Will Sharpen Its Just Nuclear Treasured Sword: Rodong Sinmun*
> 
> Rodong Sinmun in an article on August 27 ridicules the U.S. and its vassal forces for being flustered due to such pluck of the DPRK as reacting to the hard-line steps with the toughest ones.
> 
> The article goes on:
> 
> The DPRK is showing no mercy, making the outrageous forces being at its beck and call with just nukes in order to have the country free from the nuclear threat.
> 
> Upset by the toughest will of the DPRK, the U.S. is talking not only about military counter-measures but also about what it calls "diplomatic settlement".
> 
> Trump, who said he would not "rule out war", suddenly made in official appearance the remarks that he will take into account "the negotiations with the north" and that there will be no one who wants peaceful settlement more than him.
> 
> The U.S. Secretary of State, the national security advisor to the President and other VIPs vied with each other in claiming that "the U.S. is willing to have negotiations with the north" and that "dialogue is also one of the proposals for settling the north's nuclear issue."
> 
> This is nothing but a revelation of the sinister intention to continue resorting to the moves for stifling the DPRK under the signboards of "dialogue", "negotiations" and "diplomatic settlement" so as to escape merciless punishment by the DPRK.
> 
> Such foolish attempt does not work on the DPRK.
> 
> If the U.S. persists in the reckless anti-DPRK moves, sanctions and pressure, it will eventually meet a miserable fate while spending hard time.
> 
> So long as the U.S. and its vassal forces persist with such actions and imperialism, the root cause of injustice and evils, remains, the DPRK will further sharpen its just nuclear treasured sword in its hand and defend independence and justice with nukes and usher in a new era of national prosperity with their might.


----------



## 7thghoul

"This business will get out of control. It will get out of control and we'll be lucky to live through it."
- Admiral Painter, _The Hunt for Red October_ 1990

Anyone else feel like this is ramping up way too fast? I feel like their perennial posturing has become less of a joke since they developed the hwasong-12. Could be media bias but for the first time in my life I am actually terrified of the resumption of the Korean War.


----------



## a_majoor

The ROK steps up its posture. Reminding the DPRK that there will be costs associated with crossing the line is probably more important now than ever. Sabre rattling by the DPRK from the 1990's was used to extract "Danegeld", but as Kipling reminded us, paying the Danegeld never gets rid of the Dane......

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/south-korea-north-korea-heavy-bombs-border-38th-parallel-pyongyang-japan-hokkaido-moon-jae-in-a7917496.html



> *South Korea drops eight heavy bombs near North Korea border to show 'overwhelming force'*
> Pyongyang's latest missile test an 'unprecedented, serious and grave threat,' says Tokyo
> Jon Sharman Tuesday 29 August 2017 08:00 BST
> 
> South Korea's military has dropped eight heavy bombs near its border with the North in a show of what local media called "overwhelming force" following Pyongyang's latest missile test.
> 
> President Moon Jae-in ordered the strike, by four F-15K fighter-bombers, at a firing range in the country's east to "display a strong capability to punish" North Korea if it were to attack.
> 
> The MK-84 multi-purpose bomb is a 2,000lb munition that can penetrate some 11m of earth and 11ft of concrete. South Korea said all eight hit their targets at a testing ground on the country's own soil.
> 
> The Yonhap news agency said government officials wanted to show Seoul's ability to overwhelm its belligerent neighbour in the case of all-out hostility.
> 
> Pyongyang's test of an intermediate-range ballistic missile that flew over Japan's northern Hokkaido island was condemned by Tokyo as an "unprecedented, serious and grave threat" to the region. "We will do our utmost to protect people's lives," Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said.
> 
> It came amid joint US-South Korean war games.
> 
> The launch was the first-ever reported from Sunan, home to Pyongyang's international airport, prompting speculation the North had fired a road-mobile missile from an airport runway.
> 
> Runways could provide the ideal space to launch a road-mobile missile like the Hwasong-12, while also demonstrating that the North can launch its missiles from anywhere, according to Moon Seong Mook, a former South Korean military official and current analyst for the Seoul-based Korea Research Institute for National Strategy.
> 
> In an unusual move, South Korea's military released footage of its own missile tests it said were conducted last week. The videos showed two types of new missiles with ranges of 800km (497 miles) and 500km (310 miles) being fired from truck-mounted launchers during three tests conducted on 24 August.
> 
> South Korea's Agency for Defense Development said the launches represented the last flight test for the longer-range missile before it is operationally deployed.
> 
> Such projectiles, which would be the latest additions to South Korea's Hyumoo family of missiles, are considered key components of the so-called "kill chain" pre-emptive strike capability the South is pursuing to counter the North's nuclear and missile threat.


----------



## tomahawk6

JSDF air defense commander sets up a PAC3 demonstration after the DPRK launched its latest missile over Japan.

https://www.stripes.com/news/japan-demonstrates-pac-3-system-in-tokyo-hours-after-missile-flies-over-hokkaido-1.484918#.WaWX-8u0m70

https://www.stripes.com/news/japan-demonstrates-pac-3-system-in-tokyo-hours-after-missile-flies-over-hokkaido-1.484918#gallery


----------



## Good2Golf

7thghoul said:
			
		

> "This business will get out of control. It will get out of control and we'll be lucky to live through it."
> - Admiral Painter, _The Hunt for Red October_ 1990
> 
> Anyone else feel like this is ramping up way too fast? I feel like their perennial posturing has become less of a joke since they developed the hwasong-12. Could be media bias but for the first time in my life I am actually terrified of the resumption of the Korean War.



Literally showed that 0:13 sec clip to a colleague this morning. :nod:


----------



## The Bread Guy

Latest from PRK Info-machine (safer alternate archive link here - screen capture also attached)...


> *Kim Jong Un Guides Strategic Ballistic Rocket Launching Drill of KPA Strategic Force*
> 
> Kim Jong Un, chairman of the Workers' Party of Korea, chairman of the State Affairs Commission of the DPRK and supreme commander of the Korean People's Army, guided an intermediate-and-long range strategic ballistic rocket launching drill of the KPA Strategic Force on the spot.
> 
> The drill was observed by senior officials of the Central Committee of the WPK including Ri Pyong Chol, Kim Jong Sik, Jo Yong Won and Yu Jin, and officials in the field of defence scientific research including Jang Chang Ha and Jon Il Ho.
> 
> Respected Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un was greeted by commanding officers of the KPA Strategic Force including its General Kim Rak Gyom, commander of the KPA Strategic Force.
> 
> Involved in the drill were Hwasong artillery units of the KPA Strategic Force tasked with striking the bases of the U.S. imperialist aggressor forces located in the Pacific operational theater in contingency and intermediate-and-long range strategic ballistic rocket Hwasong-12.
> 
> As known to the world, the intermediate-and-long range strategic ballistic rocket launching drill of the KPA Strategic Force was conducted as a part of the muscle-flexing to counter the Ulji Freedom Guardian joint military drills the U.S. and the south Korean puppet forces finally kicked off in disregard of the DPRK's meaningful and crucial warning.
> 
> The drill was carried out through the combination of sudden maneuvers and strike in order to estimate and examine the posture of the KPA Strategic Force for prompt counteraction in contingency on the Korean peninsula and to confirm the actual war operation capacity of the intermediate-and-long range strategic ballistic rocket newly equipped by it.
> 
> The Hwasong artillery personnel, who were to conduct the launching drill for the first time in the capital city of the DPRK by order of Kim Jong Un, were all filled with strong militant enthusiasm.
> 
> Kim Jong Un arrived at the launching ground early at dawn and watched the artillerymen promptly moving and deploying the Hwasong-12 rocket launcher, praising them for their smart and accurate movement.
> 
> He learned in detail about the launch plan, preset flight track and target waters and issued an order to launch the rocket.
> 
> The fired ballistic rocket reflecting the dignity and might of the Juche-based nuclear power crossed the sky above Oshima peninsula of Hokkaido and Cape Erimo of Japan along the preset flight track and accurately hit the preset target waters in northern Pacific.
> 
> The drill had no impact on the security of the neighboring countries.
> 
> In the drill the rocket operational capacity of the Hwasong artillery units of the KPA Strategic Force for an actual war and the combat efficiency of the intermediate-and-long range strategic ballistic rocket it is newly equipped with were all proved perfect.
> 
> Kim Jong Un expressed great satisfaction over the successful launching.
> 
> Praising the Hwasong artillerymen of the Strategic Force for being well versed in the new ultra-modern rocket system and properly operating it, he said the drill would offer them an opportunity for gaining a good experience in their rocket operation for an actual war.
> 
> Noting that the current ballistic rocket launching drill like a real war is the first step of the military operation of the KPA in the Pacific and a meaningful prelude to containing Guam, advanced base of invasion, he said that it is necessary to positively push forward the work for putting the strategic force on a modern basis by conducting more ballistic rocket launching drills with the Pacific as a target in the future.
> 
> Sternly saying that the U.S. answered the DPRK's warning that it will closely watch the U.S. behavior with the bellicose war exercises for aggression, he added that the drill conducted by the Strategic Force is a curtain-raiser of its resolute countermeasures against the Ulji Freedom Guardian joint military exercises being conducted by the U.S. and its stooges.
> 
> Noting that it is a lesson the DPRK drew this time again that it should show action, not talk, to the U.S. imprudently denying the DPRK's initiative measure for easing the extreme tension, he stressed that the DPRK will continue to watch the U.S. demeanors as was already declared and decide its future action according to them.
> 
> He expressed great belief and conviction that the officers and men of the Strategic Force will further strengthen the combat preparations of Hwasong artillery pieces as required by the grim situation, be fully ready to go into action for decisive battle so as to launch powerful ballistic rockets anytime and thus check military racket of the U.S. imperialists and their followers and firmly guarantee the security of the country and the happiness of the people.
> 
> Officers and men of the KPA Strategic Force extended the warmest thanks to Kim Jong Un, peerless patriot and hero of the nation, who gave vent to the long-pent grudge of the Korean people by mapping out a bold plan to make the cruel Japanese islanders insensible on Aug. 29 when the disgraceful "Korea-Japan Annexation Treaty" was proclaimed 107 years ago and approving ballistic rocket launching in the capital region, and pledged that once the Party Central Committee issues an order, they will fulfill their sacred mission and duty as the reliable nuclear force of the WPK in the van of the final sacred war which will win victory in the standoff with the imperialists and the U.S.


Official photo also attached.


----------



## The Bread Guy

More pix from the PRK info-machine reportedly from the latest launch (note screen behind Boss Boy w/trajectory).


----------



## Eland2

The situation on the Korean peninsula and surrounding environs isn't looking too good. By launching one of its missiles over Japanese airspace, North Korea just committed an act of war against Japan. It's a lucky thing, I suppose, that fragments from the disintegrating missile didn't land on Japanese soil and kill anyone or destroy anything, or hit any shipping in the strait between Hokkaido and the mainland. Japan might not be so lucky the next time this happens. 

Trump hasn't done much beyond issuing a stern rebuke to North Korea. It will be interesting to see if he makes any more substantive moves than this. I can't help but wonder how much longer this is going to go on before war finally breaks out. Kim Jong-un must be totally confident of achieving victory, given his irresponsible actions and threats. The only way I can see him potentially winning is if he has the full military backing of China and Russia if the US attacks.

For a man who says he only wants to defend North Korea against the US and guaranteeing the survival of his regime, he seems to be behaving rather suicidally at this point. Does anyone seriously think Trump is going to acquiesce to North Korea acquiring hundreds of warheads, all of them pointed at the US? I can't see that happening.

If war erupts, I can see Canada's role being relatively minimal as we don't currently have the wherewithal to contribute anything more than a brigade-sized force, a couple of fighter squadrons and a few naval vessels. And all that is with the proviso that we will have the time to properly ramp up such a contribution. 

We're certainly not going to be sending over 25,000+ troops like we did under the auspices of 25 CIB.


----------



## MilEME09

Eland2 said:
			
		

> If war erupts, I can see Canada's role being relatively minimal as we don't currently have the wherewithal to contribute anything more than a brigade-sized force, a couple of fighter squadrons and a few naval vessels. And all that is with the proviso that we will have the time to properly ramp up such a contribution.
> 
> We're certainly not going to be sending over 25,000+ troops like we did under the auspices of 25 CIB.



If we got pulled into the full war (which we are still part of UN command so chances are high), 1 CMBG who is our high readiness brigade right now if i remember correctly would be mobilized, any naval assets in the pacific would probably be redirected to japan, aircraft wise, we jets all over europe, could we even commit airforce assets without stretching our selves thin? We really will have a capability gap if we are doing baltic air patrols, Iraq operations, and fighter a peer to peer engagement in Korea. God help us if China gets involved.


----------



## Old Sweat

Eland2 said:
			
		

> We're certainly not going to be sending over 25,000+ troops like we did under the auspices of 25 CIB.



Don't forget the 25,000 + was over a number of years with units rotating yearly. At the same time we also deployed a brigade group to Europe. In a fairly short period the regular army went from 3 to 15 (later 13) infantry battalions with major increases in the other corps as well. And the RCN and RCAF also underwent large increases.


----------



## Eland2

Old Sweat said:
			
		

> Don't forget the 25,000 + was over a number of years with units rotating yearly. At the same time we also deployed a brigade group to Europe. In a fairly short period the regular army went from 3 to 15 (later 13) infantry battalions with major increases in the other corps as well. And the RCN and RCAF also underwent large increases.



You're right, of course. The 25K I mentioned did go over in rotations. One of my great uncles, who was a member of an artillery regiment at the time, was one of the 25,000, although he went over relatively late in the war when things were cooling down and the Canadian contingent was starting to operate more like an ICCS-style observer force. 

Given the lethality and power of modern weaponry, though, I suspect a war with North Korea (provided the Chinese and the Russians don't jump in) will likely be very short-lived. Short-lived enough that Canada might be able to do nothing more than deploying a small naval flotilla and a couple of squadrons of CF-18s before the war is concluded.


----------



## Old Sweat

Wars have a tendency of not being over by Christmas.


----------



## CBH99

I'm honestly surprised the US hasn't stealthily flown in, or perhaps smuggled into Norther Korea via underground drilling...a nuke, set it off, and then blamed it on one of North Korea's own unstable designs having a malfunction.  Or found a way to covertly detonate an EMP device somehow, and taken away their ability to launch _anything_

As costly as either of those plans may be, it'll be a lot cheaper than a hyper-violent war that will surely leave South Korea in need of rebuilding.


----------



## MilEME09

Old Sweat said:
			
		

> Wars have a tendency of not being over by Christmas.



Why do you think they never say what year


----------



## jmt18325

I wasn't worried about the situation in North Korea until they shot the missile over Japan.  Now I'm not sure where this is going.


----------



## The Bread Guy

One wonders what'll happen to the price of this book - _"North Korea Confidential: Private Markets, Fashion Trends, Prison Camps, Dissenters and Defectors"_ - with this announcement (PRK Supreme Court passes in-absentia death sentences against Korean journalists quoting from the book) from the PRK info-machine ...


> *DPRK Central Court Sentences S. Korean Provokers to Death*
> 
> Pyongyang, August 31 (KCNA) -- A spokesman for the Central Court of the DPRK issued the following statement Thursday:
> 
> The hostile forces, dumbfounded by the independent spirit and tremendous capabilities of Songun Korea demonstrating its might as a nuclear power of Juche and a world-level military power, are more persistently resorting to sordid smear campaign against the DPRK.
> 
> Taking the lead in the campaign are a group of conservatives in south Korea going helter-skelter, being unaware of their impending death.
> 
> Gentries of Dong-A Ilbo and Chosun Ilbo, newspapers speaking for the conservatives, committed a hideous crime of seriously insulting the dignity of the DPRK with the use of dishonest contents carried by "North Korea Confidential", a propaganda book authored by two British journalists.
> 
> The book was written by Daniel Tudor and James Pierson, correspondents of the British news weekly Economist and the Reuters to south Korea, two years ago. As a collection of words uttered by the riff-raffs including defectors from the north, it viciously slandered the reality of the DPRK with such sophism that "life of the north's citizens is capitalistic 100 percent".
> 
> The paid writers of the two newspapers of south Korea introduced the book as "a guide interesting to those wishing to know about the north", reeling off such sophism that "the north is a country where money has greater influence than in capitalist countries", "youngsters without mobile phones are treated losers", "army is unpaid labor unit" and that "those with money can get married to those of high positions in society any time".
> 
> They had the temerity of carrying a photo in which the red star, symbolic of the brilliant revolutionary traditions of anti-Japanese war engraved on the upper part of the national emblem of the DPRK, was replaced by $ symbol and the name of the "Democratic People's Republic of Korea" was replaced by the "Capitalist Republic of Korea". They even committed such shuddering acts of replacing the title of the book called "North Korea Confidential" with "Capitalist Republic of Korea".
> 
> Dong-A Ilbo, Chosun Ilbo and other conservative media in south Korea have so far committed smear campaign against the DPRK nonstop, adding to crimes already committed. Whenever there were such things, we seriously warned that that they will be made to pay a high price for their wild acts of escalating confrontation with the north.
> 
> However, those conservative media, defying this warning, have persisted in smear campaign against the DPRK. Now they have reached the state of slandering and insulting even the inviolable name of our country and its national emblem.
> 
> Not content with viciously slandering our socialist system, the most advantageous system centered on the popular masses which can not be found in any other parts of the world, they seriously insulted the name and emblem, symbols of the inviolable dignity of the DPRK. This is a never-to-be-pardoned high treason.
> 
> It is needless to say that this is a hideous act manipulated by the group of wicked conservatives who are breathing their last after being reduced into a group of living corpses in the face of stern punishment by history and the people's mindset.
> 
> Article 60 of the DPRK Criminal Code stipulates that those who insulted the dignity of the DPRK from the anti-state purpose shall be sentenced even to maximum punishment including death, depending on the severity of the perpetration.
> 
> The Central Court of the DPRK declares that Dong-A Ilbo journalist Son Hyo Rim and Director General Kim Jae Ho and Chosun Ilbo journalist Yang Ji Ho and Director General Pang Sang Hun will be sentenced to capital punishment under the DPRK Criminal Code.
> 
> The criminals hold no right to appeal and the execution will be carried out any moment and at any place without going through any additional procedures as soon as the objects are confirmed.
> 
> We will track down to the end those who masterminded and manipulated hideous provocations of slandering and insulting the dignity of the DPRK and mete out death to them.
> 
> Taking this opportunity, we warn the south Korean authorities still conniving at the crime by hack writers of Dong-A Ilbo and Chosun Ilbo. If they do not start immediate investigation into those criminals who insulted the dignity of the DPRK and do not punish them, they will be branded as accomplices.
> 
> It should be clearly understood that neither mercy nor leniency will be shown to those who slander the inviolable dignity of the DPRK.
> 
> We will closely follow the attitude of the south Korean authorities. -0-


Screen capture of statement attached.


----------



## Oldgateboatdriver

Ayatollah Khomeini would be proud ... Oh! Wait! Salman Rushdie is still alive.  ;D


----------



## jollyjacktar

Oldgateboatdriver said:
			
		

> Ayatollah Khomeini would be proud ... Oh! Wait! Salman Rushdie is still alive.  ;D



Rushdie in haste, regret in leisure.   ;D


----------



## tomahawk6

US-ROK bombing drill near the DMZ.Great images at the link.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/4361741/us-nuke-capable-jets-drop-bombs-near-north-korea-border-after-donald-trump-warned-talking-was-not-the-answer/


----------



## The Bread Guy

This from the PRK info-machine (screen capture & stamps attached) ...


> *New Stamps Issued in DPRK to Commemorate ICBM Launch*
> 
> The DPRK State Stamp Bureau issued stamps (two sheets and one individual) in commemoration of the second successful test-fire of intercontinental ballistic rocket Hwasong-14.
> 
> Seen on the stamps are letters reading "Demonstration of strategic nuclear force of the Workers' Party of Korea" and "The successful second test launch of ICBM Hwasong-14".
> 
> A sheet carries an image of respected Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un among soldiers in the field of national defence science who successfully conducted the second ICBM test-launch on its center surrounded by pictures of the fluttering WPK flag and the ICBM soaring into the dark sky leaving a column of flames behind.
> 
> The other sheet, containing the peak height, distance and duration of the ICBM with the background of the globe, shows that the invincible mightiness and inexhaustible potentials of Juche Korea advancing under the banner of the new line of the great WPK for simultaneously developing the two fronts have been strikingly displayed once again. An individual stamp depicts the ICBM soaring into the space with the boom of victory in the showdown with the U.S.


----------



## a_majoor

A somewhat wider ranging view which looks at the essential question "why?". Understanding the motivations behind the DPRK's quest for nuclear weapons and ICBMs allows for a better targeting of both regime figures, but also refines the ever increasing diplomatic and economic pressures being exerted by Washington:

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-08-31/trump-is-right-nuclear-talks-with-north-korea-are-pointless



> *Trump Is Right. Nuclear Talks With North Korea Are Pointless.*
> But that doesn't mean war is the only option.
> By Eli Lake
> 213
> August 31, 2017 at 05:42:20 EDT
> 
> The U.S. must prepare for Pyongyang's aggression. Source: STR/AFP/Getty Images
> Here's a shocker. On Wednesday morning Donald Trump tweeted something that was mostly true: "The U.S. has been talking to North Korea, and paying them extortion money, for 25 years. Talking is not the answer!"
> 
> Technically the U.S. government stopped providing North Korea food aid and oil shipments in 2009. But other than that, Trump got this one right. The notion that the current standoff between North Korea and the U.S. and its allies should end in another round of six-party talks recalls the old joke about the definition of insanity: doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.
> 
> Remember North Korea has violated every agreement it has ever made with the international community. From the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty to the 1994 Joint Framework Agreement, the Hermit Kingdom does not keep its word.
> 
> And yet, despite Trump's tweet, it seems like this is the direction America is headed. Kim Jong Un's ballistic tantrum in recent weeks seems likely to have the same outcome as his father's past fits. He threatens to incinerate Guam. He keeps testing missiles. The latest one flew over Japan and has prompted yet another rebuke from the United Nations.
> 
> Trump correctly stated that more words will not be sufficient. But his administration is already backpedalling. Secretary of Defense James Mattis Wednesday told a pool reporter: "We're never out of diplomatic solutions. We always look for more. We're never complacent."
> 
> That's vague enough to leave the door open to something better than another round of summitry. But it doesn't look good. Already many nonproliferation experts are chiming in with shop worn policy recommendations to combine carrots and sticks with the aim of negotiating another agreement. It's quite possible that Trump's tweet will have the same staying power as his promise to release his tax returns.
> 
> Fortunately for Trump, he has other options. To start, he should take a sensible approach to North Korean diplomacy and abandon the fantasy that more talks will persuade the Kim regime to abandon its nuclear weapons. Instead, Trump should engage in what American Enterprise Institute scholar Nicholas Eberstadt has called "threat reduction."
> 
> This does not mean abandoning diplomacy altogether. It would be useful to have a military hotline with the North Koreans to avoid catastrophic miscalculations.
> 
> But the U.S. must prepare for more aggression from Pyongyang. In overlooked congressional testimony from January, Eberstadt recommends a policy of bolstering missile defense systems for South Korea, Japan and the U.S. and encouraging South Korea to bolster its civilian defense capabilities. Eberstadt also recommends doubling down on counter-proliferation, interdicting North Korean ships on the high seas, targeting its illicit procurement network, and other steps past administrations have taken to make it harder for the regime to perfect its missiles and nuclear weapons.
> 
> I would add to this list: covert operations aimed at sabotaging these programs similar to the Stuxnet virus deployed against Iran's centrifuges in 2009 and 2010.
> 
> Eberstadt also warns that it's important to understand that North Korea's nuclear program is not just an insurance policy for the survival of the regime, as most experts understand it. He says nuclear weapons are also a component of the country's strategy to break the U.S. alliance with South Korea. He points out that unification of the peninsula has been a consistent aim of the Kim family since the start of the Korean War. They have shown no sign of giving this up. This means the U.S. must plan now for a response to a conventional military attack on South Korea.
> 
> Trump should also aim to delegitimize North Korea. This is distinct from isolating the regime, which is a mantra every president has said for the last 25 years. North Korea is already isolated. As I wrote recently, it's important to continue to support quiet programs to break the information seal the regime tries to impose on its citizens. Ebertsadt elegantly put this principal as follows: "The regime is deadly afraid of what it terms 'ideological and cultural poisoning,' what we could call foreign media, international information, cultural exchanges, and the like. We should be saying, bring on the 'poisoning'! The more external contact with that enslaved population, the better."
> 
> For now this means continuing to support efforts of North Korean defectors to get portable DVD players loaded up with South Korean television programs over the demilitarized zone through smuggling, drones and other means.
> 
> Another component of delegitimizing North Korea should be to awaken South Korean civil society to their responsibility to begin planning for how it will one day have to absorb a population that has lived under a Stalinist tyranny for nearly 70 years.
> 
> Greg Scarlatoiu, the executive director Committee for Human Rights in North Korea, has also recommended for the U.S. to push for suspending North Korea's voting rights at the United Nations. This is a long shot because China to this day has acted most of the time as North Korea's protector at Turtle Bay. But the message it sends is important. North Korea is not part of the community of nations; it's a criminal syndicate masquerading as a government.
> 
> Many experts have suggested another component should be getting tough with China, North Korea's benefactor and supplier of fuel and electricity. But even Trump has acknowledged that his initial effort to work with Beijing in this regard has so far failed.
> 
> It's possible that ratcheting up pressure could get better results. But it's also a risky strategy because it could spark a trade war or prompt China to become more aggressive in other areas such as the South China Sea, where it continues to build artificial islands as a military foothold.
> 
> For now the most important thing for Trump to do is to prepare for the worst, mitigate the North Korean military threat and lay the groundwork for the day when Koreans can liberate themselves. The one thing he shouldn't do is apply sanctions today in the hopes of negotiating at some point in the future. As Trump tweeted Wednesday, that's what the U.S. has been doing for the last quarter-century. Let's hope he sticks to his guns this time and avoids the same mistake as predecessors.


----------



## The Bread Guy

_*Another*_ nuke test ...

_*"USGS detects 6.3-magnitude 'explosion' in North Korea"*_ (ABC Radio - U.S.)
_*"Quake measuring 5.2 strikes North Korea, suggesting nuclear test"*_ (Reuters)
_*"North Korea says conducts 'perfect' hydrogen bomb test"*_ (Reuters)
_*"Top South Korean and U.S. military officers agreed Sunday to take military measures against North Korea for its latest nuclear test ..."*_ (Yonhap - KOR news agency)
_*"North Korean nuclear test poses no threat to Russian Far East — seismologist"*_ (TASS - RUS state-funded media)
_*"China strongly condemns North Korean nuclear test"*_ (_South China Morning Post_)
_*"Seoul official says N. Korea still away from 'red line' despite nuclear test"*_ (Yonhap)
More via Google News
PRK info-machine statements on test (with a few photos) attached


----------



## tomahawk6

Perhaps they have a hydrogen bomb ? If this is the case then some type of premrptive strike,is a strong likelihood. They arent going to abandon their program. Buying them off hasnt worked.Sanctions arent meaningful to a leader that doesnt care about the welfare of his people. What is more concerning is the cooperation with Iran is the strong possibility the Iranians will also have a hydrogen bomb. The Israelis are paying very close attention.


----------



## The Bread Guy

And a few more pix via the PRK info-machine of the (alleged) warhead ...


----------



## jollyjacktar

I have to admit, those guys be styling in those bitching suits.  No wonder all the NK chicks go gaga over Kimbo.


----------



## SeaKingTacco

If that is the real deal, looks to my eye like they went gun type in weapon design, vice implosion.

If it is a real device: trouble.

If he is bluffing: trouble.


----------



## The Bread Guy

jollyjacktar said:
			
		

> I have to admit, those guys be styling in those bitching suits.  No wonder all the NK chicks go gaga over Kimbo.


... not to mention the 'do's ...


			
				SeaKingTacco said:
			
		

> If it is a real device: trouble.
> 
> If he is bluffing: trouble.


:nod:  op:

Meanwhile, POTUS45's initial response attached.


----------



## 7thghoul

So embarrassing:



> China embarrassed
> 
> Robin Brant, BBC News, Shanghai
> 
> North Korea's sixth nuclear weapons test is an utter rejection of all that its _only ally_ has called for.
> 
> Beijing's response was predictable: condemnation, urging an end to provocation and dialogue. But it also spoke of urging North Korea to "face up to the firm will" of the international community to see denuclearisation on the Korean peninsula.
> 
> There is no sign though that China is willing yet to see that firm will go beyond UN sanctions, which recently clamped down on seafood and iron ore exports, in addition to the coal and minerals that are already banned from crossing the border.
> 
> It is noteworthy also that this test took place just as the Chinese president was about to welcome a handful of world leaders to the two-day showpiece Brics summit on China's east coast.
> 
> Even the state-controlled media will find it hard to ignore the fact that their man has been upstaged - embarrassed too - by its almost universally ostracised ally and neighbour.



full article on yesterdays "h-bomb" test: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-41139445


----------



## Oldgateboatdriver

If it's a real device SKT, they're all dead from cancer / radiation poisoning.  ;D

Come on! that's a set up. The room where they are filming this doesn't even closely look like the "clean" rooms where you do that type of work. And you would just lean the missile like that to load it!!! again: even at that size, the damn apparatus is heavy as shit and would not be on a small stand like that.

Those bitchin suits! They wouldn't wear them in a "clean" room.

That's a model to explain to the leader what is being done by the scientists and techs. Or, since it is DKRP and the beloved leader knows everything there is to know already, for the scientists and techs to receive his wisdom a point in time when it is irrelevant anyway since they already have done all the work.


----------



## jollyjacktar

SeaKingTacco said:
			
		

> If that is the real deal, looks to my eye like they went gun type in weapon design, vice implosion.
> 
> If it is a real device: trouble.
> 
> If he is bluffing: trouble.



I hate to admit it as I honestly didn't think things would escalate to this degree.  But, NK seems hell bent on pushing everyone to the point where someone is going to be forced to respond with force.  I wonder who's finally going to snap?


----------



## PuckChaser

All of this under the backdrop of an Olympic games within range of NK artillery only 5 months away...


----------



## larry Strong

Now the hermit is threatening an EMP attack..

http://www.torontosun.com/2017/09/03/north-korea-openly-threatens-emp-attack-for-the-first-time-changing-the-game


Cheers
Larry


----------



## daftandbarmy

How to deal with North Korea

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/07/the-worst-problem-on-earth/528717/


----------



## tomahawk6

Mark Bowden would have the administration accept the fact that a nuclear armed North Korea is here to stay. Sadly that would also mean a nuclear Iran as well. Maybe we can live with that,but can Israel ? For that matter would Japan and the ROK be forced to obtain nuclear weapons. Already Japan is looking for a first strike option. It would be less dangerous to take out the North Korean leader or even better get the Chinese to engineer regime change.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Some of the latest from the U.S. DoD info-machine ...


> *Mattis, Dunford Brief President on Military Options Available to Deal With North Korea*
> By Cheryl Pellerin DoD News, Defense Media Activity
> 
> WASHINGTON, Sept. 3, 2017 — Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, standing in front of the White House this afternoon after the latest and largest nuclear test carried out by North Korea, said the United States has many military options for dealing with Kim Jong Un's provocations and that President Donald J. Trump wanted to be briefed on each one.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> _This graphic from the U.S. Geological Survey's Earthquake Hazards Program shows a shake map from the magnitude 6.3 explosion-generated earthquake that took place Sept. 3, 2017, 22 kilometers east-northeast of Sungjibaegam, North Korea. A shake map is a product of the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program in conjunction with the regional seismic networks. Shake maps provide near-real-time maps of ground motion and shaking intensity following significant earthquakes. U.S. Geological Survey graphic_​
> Marine Corps Gen. Joe Dunford, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, joined Mattis for his announcement.
> 
> At about 11:30 p.m. EDT last night, the U.S. Geological Survey's Earthquake Hazards Program detected a magnitude 6.3 explosion, about 13 miles east-northeast of Sungjibaegam, North Korea, located near the site where North Korea has detonated nuclear explosions in the past, according to a USGS statement.
> 
> Other institutions and organizations specializing in seismic detection also reported the explosion and resulting seismic signature.
> 
> The Korean Central News Agency announced that North Korean scientists had carried out a test in the country's northern nuclear test ground of a hydrogen bomb built to sit on top of an intercontinental ballistic missile, describing the device as a two-stage thermonuclear weapon.
> 
> Media reports say that the test was the most powerful of the six, but there is no official measurement yet of the force of the hydrogen weapon.
> 
> *Ironclad Commitment*
> 
> In his remarks, Mattis said they had made clear to the president that the United States has the ability to defend itself and its allies -- South Korea and Japan -- from any attack.
> 
> "Our commitments among the allies are ironclad," the secretary added. "Any threat to the United States or its territories, including [the U.S. territory of] Guam or our allies, will be met with a massive military response, a response both effective and overwhelming."
> 
> This nuclear test was North Korea's sixth since 2006.
> 
> The weapon tested last night was a fusion bomb, also called a hydrogen bomb or thermonuclear weapon. Fission weapons, such as those that fell on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in World War II, are sometimes called atomic bombs.
> 
> In a hydrogen bomb, according to a 2012 paper by Martin E. Hellman, a Stanford University professor, a primary element is an implosion fission weapon that is used to ignite the secondary fusion reaction.
> 
> The Air Force Technical Applications Center at Patrick Air Force Base in Florida, is the only federal organization whose mission is to detect and report technical data from foreign nuclear explosions. The center operates and maintains a 3,600-sensor global network of nuclear event detection equipment called the U.S. Atomic Energy Detection Systems, the largest sensor network in the Air Force.
> 
> Once a disturbance is detected underground, underwater, in the atmosphere or in space, the event is analyzed for nuclear identification, and the findings are reported to national command authorities.
> 
> *Unified Voice*
> 
> This afternoon, Mattis said that Kim Jong Un should take heed of the United Nations Security Council's unified voice.
> 
> "All members unanimously agreed on the threat North Korea poses, and they remain unanimous in their commitment to the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula," he said.
> 
> "We are not looking to the total annihilation of a country, namely North Korea. But as I said, we have many options to do so," Mattis added.
> 
> The U.N. Security Council announced that it will have a meeting about the nuclear test (this) morning.


----------



## CBH99

I was really hoping someone had smuggled a nuclear weapon into North Korea & detonated it...and made it look like it was one of their own, set off by accident during development.  Sigh.

Guess not...


----------



## The Bread Guy

Some more of the lastest -- usual "early reports" caveats apply to the first item ...

_*"The head of the U.N. organization looking into North Korea’s recent nuclear test says it is seeking information about a second seismic shock that followed the detonation to rule out the possibility it was a second explosion.*  Lassina Zerbo of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization says experts believe the second shock was geological and was caused by the blast.  But he told reporters Monday that because it was recorded at the same location, the experts are working to have a better understanding of what caused the second shock ..."_ (Associated Press via _National Post_)
_*"Seoul officials leaning towards military measures than dialogue with N.K.: defense chief "*_ (Yonhap KOR news service)
_*"Neutral Switzerland offers to mediate North Korea crisis, Swiss president says"*_ (Reuters via CBC.ca) - Swiss government statement (in French)
_*"Seoul to focus on “punishment” rather than dialogue with North: defense chief"*_ (nknews.org media monitoring/analysis group)
POTUS45's latest via Twitter (a couple of more added from yesterday's share upthread) attached


----------



## tomahawk6

The ROK is floating the idea of the US moving tactical nukes back to the ROK to counter threats from the North. I like the idea of eco friendly nukes name neutron weapons.The enhanced radiation shell could be made for 155mm artillery.WE no longer have the Lance or 8in artillery which were the delivery means for the 80's neutron warhead.

https://www.stripes.com/news/pacific/south-korea-s-defense-minister-raises-the-idea-of-bringing-back-tactical-us-nuclear-weapons-1.485976#.Wa1-Usu0m70

https://www.cato.org/publications/policy-analysis/precisionguided-munitions-neutron-bomb


----------



## The Bread Guy

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> The ROK is floating the idea of the US moving tactical nukes back to the ROK to counter threats from the North ...


But before that, this for now ...


> President Trump and his South Korean counterpart agreed on Monday to remove payload limits on the country’s missiles in an escalation of military force after North Korea detonated a nuclear device over the weekend, according to a report.
> 
> President Moon Jae In spoke to Trump on the telephone and the two agreed to end the limits as a “countermeasure against North Korea’s sixth nuclear test,” said presidential spokesman Park Soo-hyun in a statement, according to the Yonhap news agency of Korea.
> 
> Monday’s agreement comes after talks between the two leaders over the past few weeks as a way to strengthen South Korea’s defense against President Kim Jong Un’s rogue regime.
> 
> Under an agreement with the US, South Korea’s missiles were limited to carry a warhead of 1,100 pounds ...


*More @ link*


----------



## a_majoor

Some of the choices available. The challenge is to find the least worst choice:

http://observer.com/2017/07/donald-trump-north-korea-options/



> *Trump Has 6 Options to Neutralize North Korea—but None Are Good*
> The carrot and the stick approach clearly failed
> By Austin Bay • 07/11/17 6:30am
> 
> This picture taken on July 4 and released by North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) shows the successful test-fire of the intercontinental ballistic missile Hwasong-14 at an undisclosed location. STR/AFP/Getty Images
> We don’t hear mere saber rattling on the Korean peninsula. Sabers are local, short-range weapons. The dreadful noise in east Asia is something far more potent: the provocative July 4 blast of a North Korean missile capable of striking North America.
> 
> South Korea’s Sunshine Policy to coax North Korea to end its nuclear quest? The Clinton Administration’s Agreed Framework of economic carrots and heavy oil to encourage regime moderation? Two decades (or more) of rational U.S. appeals to China to help curb the noxious Kim regime’s pursuit of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles and to help terminate Pyongyang’s cyclic bouts of military attacks on South Korea?
> 
> These soft power gambits may have thrilled the editorial board of The New York Times, but they didn’t stop North Korea’s dictatorship. The Kim regime now has an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) in its arsenal—one that threatens Anchorage, Alaska, and perhaps Pearl Harbor, Hawaii.
> 
> Eight years ago, on July 4, 2009, North Korea conducted a missile test. July 4 launches are clearly messages to America.
> 
> Alaska and Hawaii are minimalist interpretations of the 2017 missile’s range. Other experts fear the ICBM, a Hwasong-14, can reach the Canadian and U.S. west coasts.
> 
> Parts of Alaska (western Aleutians) have been within range of North Korean missiles for several years. So has Guam. There is an ongoing debate about the Taepodong-2 ballistic missile that was test-fired in February 2016. It may have had the range to hit northern California.
> 
> The July 4 launch doesn’t mean the North Koreans can handle operational targeting; it doesn’t mean they can mount an operational nuclear warhead on a missile; it doesn’t mean they have a warhead that can re-enter the atmosphere without breaking apart; it doesn’t mean they can detonate a warhead that can reach its target. It does, however, show they are hell bent on acquiring these capabilities and their accelerated development program is succeeding.
> 
> For the moment, the heat from North Korea’s intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test remains rhetorical and its fallout political. However, Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons program will eventually produce nuclear warheads for its boosters.
> 
> For almost four decades, the Kim dynasty in Pyongyang has promised to build nuclear weapons and ICBMs. Now the dictatorship’s dream is a real world nightmare.
> 
> Since the 1990s, there have been three general options for halting North Korea’s nuclear weapons program: enforce stiff economic and political sanctions to isolate the regime; follow a “wait and see” political and military strategy played with cautious economic carrots and sticks; and conduct a pre-emptive air or missile strike on North Korean nuclear research and development sites, weapons stores, missile and air bases, and command and control facilities.
> 
> Here are the current options for the U.S. to neutralize the Hermit Kingdom’s threat. Each entails grave risks.
> 
> 1.) Yet another “do the right thing” bid to Beijing. China has vulnerabilities. China’s imperial territorial expansion in the South China Sea has produced adversarial reactions. China’s other borders are anything but problem-free, and Beijing’s bullying has intensified several disputes.
> 
> Chinese jockeying failed to shake the new government of South Korean President Moon Jae-in and force the withdrawal of a U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-ballistic missile (ABM) battery deployed in South Korea.
> 
> China threatened South Korean companies. It curtailed travel and cultural contacts. It threatened Seoul with political reprisals.
> 
> The THAAD tantrum failed, and China is still processing that failure. Moon was pegged as a “peace candidate” of the timorous political stripe Beijing and Pyongyang might manipulate. He performed a brief “review” of the THAAD deployment (which he promised he would do during his campaign), but after his meeting with President Donald Trump, he declared “a unified front” against Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile programs.
> 
> South Korea knows THAAD provides protection. Japan also knows U.S. anti-ballistic missiles (ABM) provide protection.
> 
> Beijing has not yet adapted to South Korea’s and Japan’s new resolve. Moon is positioned to help Beijing adapt to 2017’s new reality and encourage China to finally squeeze the nukes out of the North.
> 
> Eighty-five percent of North Korea’s international trade is with China. North Korea’s miserable economy depends on China.
> 
> Some North Korean defectors argue tough sanctions—meaning an embargo and blockade with China participating—could cripple the Kim regime.
> 
> In April, Trump tweeted “a trade deal with the U.S. will be far better if they (China) solve the North Korean problem!” An economic payoff? Yes, but better than a shooting war.
> 
> 2.) Coercive diplomacy directed at China. In March, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said “strategic patience” with North Korea was over and done.
> 
> Eventually strategic patience with Chinese posturing will also end.
> 
> China is attempting to portray itself as “the global adult” in the Trump Era and as the “go to nation” for the next Davos. However, backing North Korea utterly exposes this Chinese narrative as the sham it is. In February, Kim Jon Un’s assassins murdered his half-brother, Kim Jong Nam. The killers smeared him with a liquid nerve poison, persistent VX. In a missile warhead, VX is a weapon of mass destruction. Assassination as a geo-political advertisement that North Korea is an outlaw regime is an action no responsible nation would permit.
> 
> So coercive diplomacy starts with an information campaign challenging China’s pose.
> 
> It gets uglier. In the U.S.-China relationship, trade politics and geo-politics intersect. Business isn’t simply business when the promise of wealth keeps China’s Communist Party in power. The United States has the economic power to damage China. Trump knows it and so does Beijing. Trump has already talked trade barriers.
> 
> The U.S. is energy independent and China isn’t. The U.S. and its allies can restrict Chinese exports and access to raw materials.
> 
> Smaller but politically irritating sanctions like denying wealthy Chinese the ability to purchase real estate in the U.S. could have political effects among Chinese elites. In the upcoming party Congress scheduled for this fall, Chinese President Xi Jinping wants to solidify his control. However, he faces internal Communist Party opposition. The U.S. could exploit emerging factions in the party elite.
> 
> Coercive diplomacy stops when China forces North Korea to denuclearize.
> 
> Risky? Of course. It could spark a ruinous global trade war. But it is an option.
> 
> 3.) The cynical trade and sell-out. The U.S., Japan and South Korea could acknowledge Chinese control of the South China Sea or they could give Taiwan to China in exchange for a denuclearized North Korea.
> 
> Outrageous? Yes. India would never accept it. Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Singapore and Australia would go tilt.
> 
> I don’t think the U.S. and Japan would ever seriously contemplate it.
> 
> But it’s an option and likely the “appeasement” deal Beijing wants to make.
> 
> 4.) Return of serve. This is an operation that could support several diplomatic options. The U.S., South Korea and Japan could use their ABMs to intercept every North Korean test launch. They might also employ cyber warfare to disrupt tests (perhaps they have already done so). The objective of “Return of Serve” is to stymie the test program and embarrass Kim Jong Un.
> 
> 5.) Decapitation. What does Pyongyang want? The murder of Kim Jong Nam suggests one key objective: to retain Kim Jong Un’s control. Encouraging a North Korean Army coup sounds great, and if you know the faction who would do it, contact CIA immediately. Targeting Kim with a missile or aircraft-delivered munitions is extremely difficult. Moreover, his death may not lead to denuclearization and attacking him would be an act of war.
> 
> 6.) Delayed reprisal and the war to denuclearize. Is a pre-emptive strike reckless? This asks another question: Just how responsible is a post-emptive strike?
> 
> The Korean War isn’t over.
> 
> Donald Trump is already a Korean War president—but so was Barack Obama and every other American president since Harry Truman.
> 
> Over the years, North Korea has committed atrocities throughout Asia. The regime has murdered and kidnapped South Koreans, Japanese and U.S. personnel. North Korea’s embedded belligerency defies the laws of war. The War to Denuclearize would be less of a pre-emptive strike than a delayed reprisal.
> 
> The U.S. and South Korea have exercised what they call a 4D strategy to “detect, defend, disrupt and destroy” North Korea’s missiles.
> 
> Weapons systems involved include various U.S. aircraft and a South Korean submarine with cruise missiles.
> 
> This is a bare sketch of some of the systems that would be employed in a “simultaneous strategic bombing strike” to knock out North Korean missiles, missile launchers, storage sites, nuclear and chemical weapons sites, command and control centers, communications systems and air-space defenses.
> 
> The U.S. and its allies in east Asia have the aircraft and missiles (cruise and ballistic) to deliver at least 2,000 (likely more) precision blockbuster-sized conventional weapons within a two to 10 minute time frame on North Korea’s critical targets. The April U.S. Tomahawk cruise missile attack on a Syrian Shayrat airbase provides an example.
> 
> The missiles were fired at a distance, but since they can “loiter,” the 59 missiles arrived near simultaneously. U.S. Air Force heavy bombers can drop smart bombs so that munitions dropped from different aircraft arrive near simultaneously.
> 
> A simultaneous strategic bombing strike seeks to surprise the enemy, destroy his strategic weapons systems and suppress his key defenses throughout the battle area.
> 
> That is asking a lot—perhaps too much.
> 
> Success depends on many things, but the first D—detect—is vital. Conducting a successful simultaneous strategic bombing strike requires very accurate, real-time intelligence. Allied ABMs must be ready to intercept any North Korean missiles that survive the attack.
> 
> That’s a sketch of the first 10 minutes. Over the next month subsequent strikes would occur, to make certain North Korea’s long-range missiles, chemical munitions, nuclear weapons stockpiles, missile manufacturing capabilities and nuclear weapons manufacturing capabilities are eliminated.
> 
> The U.S. and it allies must protect Seoul. North Korean artillery can bombard the northern reaches of South Korea’s capital. Military analysts debate the severity of the threat posed to Seoul by North Korean artillery deployed along the Demilitarized Zone. Some call it overrated. Perhaps, but best to suppress and destroy the artillery. North Korea’s tube and rocket artillery systems—even the ones in caves and bunkers—are vulnerable to weapons like the Massive Ordnance Air Blast (MOAB) bomb.
> 
> Smart bombs can close tunnel entrances.
> 
> This is a major war, and the risks are great. But so is exposing Los Angeles to the violent whims of a nuclear-armed Kim Jong Un.


----------



## tomahawk6

To insure loyalty of the top military people,each receives on top of their pay a USD debit card which is reloaded monthly. These cards can be used at special stores.A general gets $2000 and it goes down to $400 for a Colonel. Pretty effective system.

http://www.rfa.org/english/news/korea/generals-02212013180254.html


----------



## tomahawk6

Chinese scientists are warning that the mountain that has been used for nuclear tests may implode. Maybe this might spur China into intervention in North Korea.

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/09/05/north-korea-mountain-used-as-nuclear-test-site-at-risk-collapsing-chinese-scientist-says.html

A mountain in North Korea believed to have served as the site of five of the rogue regime’s nuclear tests -- including Sunday’s supposed hydrogen bomb explosion -- is at risk of collapsing and leaking radiation into the region, a Chinese scientist said Monday.

Researchers at the University of Science and Technology of China in Hefei, Anhui province, examined the Punggye-ri site and said they “were confident” underground detonations were occurring underneath the mountain, South China Morning Post reported. Wang Naiyan, a former chairman of the China Nuclear Society and a researcher on China's own nuclear weapons program, said another test underneath the mountain can cause an “environmental disaster” if the site caves in on itself, allowing radiation to escape and “drift across the region,” including into China.


----------



## SeaKingTacco

China's pet pit bull, China's mess.


----------



## Eland2

SeaKingTacco said:
			
		

> China's pet pit bull, China's mess.



And it looks like it's getting ready to bite China on their arse.


----------



## McG

SeaKingTacco said:
			
		

> China's pet pit bull, China's mess.


Maybe they take a cue from the Soviet liberators of eastern Europe in the '40s?  Have the PLA, as the guarantor against the aggressions of those Americans and their nasty allies, roll through and secure everything north of the 40th parallel (maybe slide south a little toward the coast to encompass Hamhung and Hungnam) and do so with all the resources to stay ... forever.  Then take a more modern cue from some little green men in Crimea: "secure" the in-place/domestic military forces, appropriate all secured military resources, and tell the world "we own this place now".  I am sure that Harbin, Changchun and Shenyang would all appreciate greater access to new ports with shorter sea lanes to Japanese markets.

Sure, the world really should not approve of expansionist endeavours.  But we can probably make an exception to allow one stable nuclear power to subsume the nuclear abilities of an irrational actor.  The whole event could even leave North Korea sufficiently cognitively fixed to facilitate the south pushing up to meet the PLA's forward line of troops.  The two armies could then shake hands; a new border would be drawn and the Koreas declared unified.

 [


----------



## The Bread Guy

Trouble is that, if I understand correctly, China's not keen on taking in all kinds of PRK refugees for a variety of reasons.  If that's the case, does China want the expense/hassle of taking on a new Korean oblast?

Then again ...


> ... I am sure that Harbin, Changchun and Shenyang would all appreciate greater access to new ports with shorter sea lanes to Japanese markets ...


... it's not ALL down side, is it?


----------



## tomahawk6

The North is preparing for another ICBM launch ahead of their founding day celebration on Sat. This time I hope we engage it while over the Sea of Japan. Of course an explosion on the launch pad would be best.


----------



## a_majoor

MCG said:
			
		

> Maybe they take a cue from the Soviet liberators of eastern Europe in the '40s?  Have the PLA, as the guarantor against the aggressions of those Americans and their nasty allies, roll through and secure everything north of the 40th parallel (maybe slide south a little toward the coast to encompass Hamhung and Hungnam) and do so with all the resources to stay ... forever.  Then take a more modern cue from some little green men in Crimea: "secure" the in-place/domestic military forces, appropriate all secured military resources, and tell the world "we own this place now".  I am sure that Harbin, Changchun and Shenyang would all appreciate greater access to new ports with shorter sea lanes to Japanese markets.
> 
> Sure, the world really should not approve of expansionist endeavours.  But we can probably make an exception to allow one stable nuclear power to subsume the nuclear abilities of an irrational actor.  The whole event could even leave North Korea sufficiently cognitively fixed to facilitate the south pushing up to meet the PLA's forward line of troops.  The two armies could then shake hands; a new border would be drawn and the Koreas declared unified.
> 
> [



While this is interesting (and possibly doable) I find this fundamentally at odds with the sort of thinking the Chinese are famous for. It would be much more in their interests if they can push the costs of disarming, policing and rebuilding the DPRK onto the ROK and the United States. This would essentially take the ROK out of contention for decades as they shovel resources into stabilization and rebuilding and tie up the United States as well (I know the preferred outcome is to drive the United States out of the Korean Peninsula altogether and ideally the First Island Chain, but sticking the US with a Tar Baby is perhaps second best).

This COA also keeps the Chinese out of Korea (the Koreans will rapidly rebel against foreign occupation), and don't forget that Asians are just as racist as anyone else, so there is no love lost between the Chinese and Koreans. If anything, the Chinese would use an American/ROK reunification as an excuse to send back Koreans who are in China, either as contract workers (a source of hard currency for the DPRK) or even just people of Korean ethnicity who have settled in the area over the centuries. Nothing like transferring any resentment to the Americans by piling on the problems for them to solve in Korea.

It isn't clear just where the end game is going. The Trump Administration is obviously trying to push the problem squarely in the laps of the Chinese with increased trade sanctions, and a secondary American aim might be to make China "lose face" by being portrayed as unable to control its client. I'm sure there are explorations of ideas ranging from unexplained accidents and deaths to massively increasing the amount of information being pushed over the borders to forment dissent and start some sort of insurgency within the DPRK, as well as further targeting of third parties who provide economic lifelines to the DPRK. We are living in _interesting_ times.


----------



## Edward Campbell

Thucydides said:
			
		

> While this is interesting (and possibly doable) I find this fundamentally at odds with the sort of thinking the Chinese are famous for. _It would be much more in their interests if they can push the costs of disarming, policing and rebuilding the DPRK onto the ROK and the United States. This would essentially take the ROK out of contention for decades as they shovel resources into stabilization and rebuilding and tie up the United States as well_ (I know the preferred outcome is to drive the United States out of the Korean Peninsula altogether and ideally the First Island Chain, but sticking the US with a Tar Baby is perhaps second best).
> 
> This COA also keeps the Chinese out of Korea (the Koreans will rapidly rebel against foreign occupation), and don't forget that Asians are just as racist as anyone else, so there is no love lost between the Chinese and Koreans. If anything, the Chinese would use an American/ROK reunification as an excuse to send back Koreans who are in China, either as contract workers (a source of hard currency for the DPRK) or even just people of Korean ethnicity who have settled in the area over the centuries. Nothing like transferring any resentment to the Americans by piling on the problems for them to solve in Korea.
> 
> It isn't clear just where the end game is going. The Trump Administration is obviously trying to push the problem squarely in the laps of the Chinese with increased trade sanctions, and a secondary American aim might be to make China "lose face" by being portrayed as unable to control its client. I'm sure there are explorations of ideas ranging from unexplained accidents and deaths to massively increasing the amount of information being pushed over the borders to forment dissent and start some sort of insurgency within the DPRK, as well as further targeting of third parties who provide economic lifelines to the DPRK. We are living in _interesting_ times.



Except that ROK is one of the major sources of capital and technology for China ... I still _think_ that the Chinese would be happiest with a reunified, prosperous Korea that has far looser ties to America (and, concomitantly, stronger ones to China).


----------



## tomahawk6

More on Mount Mantop disturbances.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/05/world/asia/north-korea-nuclear-bomb-test-site-satellite.html


----------



## a_majoor

More on trying to figure out how the end game will be played:

https://www.the-american-interest.com/2017/09/05/haley-no-can-kicking-north-korea/



> *Haley: No More Can-Kicking on North Korea*
> SEAN KEELEY
> 
> Tensions are rising, stocks are falling, and pulses are quickening in the wake of North Korea’s sixth and strongest nuclear test. The Trump Administration has been quick to respond: on Sunday, after Pyongyang claimed to have detonated a hydrogen bomb, Defense Secretary James Mattis responded with a terse statement warning of a “massive military response” to any threat to the homeland. On Monday, President Trump said the Administration was weighing halting all trade with countries doing business with Pyongyang; the next day, he announced that Washington would sell “highly sophisticated military equipment” to Japan and South Korea.
> 
> At the Security Council, UN Ambassador Nikki Haley is urging countries to support a last-ditch effort to choke off North Korea’s fuel supplies—or else.  The New York Times reports:
> 
> The Trump Administration, warning that North Korea is “begging for war,” is pressing China and other members of the United Nations Security Council to cut off all oil and other fuels to the country.
> 
> The effort, which senior administration officials described as a last best chance to resolve the standoff with the North using sanctions rather than military means, came as South Korean officials said Monday that they had seen evidence that North Korea may be preparing another test, likely of an intercontinental ballistic missile. […]
> 
> “We have kicked the can down the road long enough,” Ms. Haley told the council in an emergency meeting. “There is no more road left.”
> 
> Haley is right to acknowledge that the road is running out as North Korea marches toward a nuclear ICBM (we at TAI have been saying so ourselves for some time now). But the Administration has yet to wed that assessment to a viable long-term strategy. For all of Trump’s dramatic bluster, he has largely adhered to a familiar playbook of sanctions, stern statements, and exhortations that China must “do more” to restrain North Korea. The demand for an oil embargo is only the latest example.
> 
> Unfortunately for Trump, China and Russia are unlikely to follow him up that rung of the escalation ladder. China has long resisted a full-fledged oil cutoff that could endanger the survival of the North Korean regime. And Vladimir Putin promptly declared today that the new U.S. sanctions push was a “road to nowhere,” stating that the North Koreans would rather “eat grass” than give up their nuclear program. In short, the oil embargo sounds like it is dead on arrival—and when Beijing or Moscow vetoes it, they will have effectively called Trump’s bluff.
> 
> After all, Trump’s threats of “fire and fury” hardly look credible in Beijing and Moscow; any “military solution” to take out Kim’s nuclear program would kill untold thousands in the process. Few in Washington, and fewer still among the American public, would be willing to bear those costs. If anything, U.S. political forces are drifting toward disengagement from Asia: as Walter Russell Mead points out in the WSJ, both Bannonites on the populist Right and isolationists on the populist Left have questioned the wisdom of upholding American security commitments abroad. This is a trend that the North Koreans (not to mention the Chinese and Russians) are watching with great interest as they seek to dislodge the United States from its perch of power in East Asia.
> 
> In other words, China and Russia may be willing to live with a nuclear North Korea if that leads to a weakening of the American position in Asia. And if the United States must learn to live with it, too, we should be strategizing for how we can do so without surrendering our strong standing in the region.
> 
> So far, the Trump Administration has shown little ability for this kind of foresight; if anything, it is actively harming its credibility with existing allies. At a time when a united front with South Korea is more critical than ever, Trump has been threatening to withdraw from their bilateral trade deal and accusing Seoul of appeasement. That is a rift that China and Russia will seek to open further, by posing as the “responsible” mediators willing to give peace a chance.
> 
> In the long run, the United States will need its own such strategies—like seeking to repair strained ties between Seoul and Tokyo, for instance, or exploiting Beijing’s fears of a nuclear South Korea and Japan to coerce China into a more cooperative position against Pyongyang. There is no guarantee that these strategies will work, and Trump is right to gripe that previous administrations have merely kicked the can down the road. But with the end of the road approaching, it is past time to start gaming out scenarios—however unpalatable and unpredictable—to maximize our position when it finally runs out.


----------



## The Bread Guy

On a lighter note (source) ...


----------



## The Bread Guy

On a more serious note, POTUS45's latest from a news conference @ the Whitehouse yesterday ...


> ...  *Q (from CBS)*    Thanks.  Mr. President, on the question of North Korea, the country feels that a crisis is coming.  Some lawmakers, Lindsey Graham among them, have almost described the situation as inevitably leading to war.  I don't want to ask you if you think it’s inevitable.  What I do want to ask you is, as President of the United States, would you tolerate a nuclearized North Korea that is contained and deterred but still nuclear?  Or would it have to abandon nuclear weapons?  And would military action on the part of the United States be one of the options necessary to achieve that goal?
> 
> *PRESIDENT TRUMP:*  Military action would certainly be an option.  Is it inevitable?  Nothing is inevitable.  It would be great if something else could be worked out.  We would have to look at all of the details, all of the facts.  But we've had Presidents for 25 years now -- they've been talking, talking, talking -- and the day after an agreement is reached, new work begins in North Korea, continuation on nuclear.
> 
> So I would prefer not going the route of the military, but it’s something certainly that could happen.  Our military has never been stronger.  We are in a position now -- and you know the new orders.  You see the new numbers just like I see the new numbers.  It’s been tens of billions of dollars more in investment.  And each day new equipment is delivered -- new and beautiful equipment, the best in the world, the best anywhere in the world, by far.
> 
> Hopefully we're not going to have to use it on North Korea.  If we do use it on North Korea, it will be a very sad day for North Korea.   ...


----------



## Edward Campbell

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> On a more serious note, POTUS45's latest from a news conference @ the Whitehouse yesterday ...
> 
> 
> 
> ...
> PRESIDENT TRUMP:  Military action would certainly be an option.  Is it inevitable?  Nothing is inevitable.  It would be great if something else could be worked out.  We would have to look at all of the details, all of the facts.  But we've had Presidents for 25 years now -- they've been talking, talking, talking -- and the day after an agreement is reached, new work begins in North Korea, continuation on nuclear.
> 
> So I would prefer not going the route of the military, but it’s something certainly that could happen ...
Click to expand...


Considering the source that is a sane, even modestly sensible comment.


----------



## The Bread Guy

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> Considering the source that is a sane, even modestly sensible comment.


And I quoted the WH page to head off the worst accusations of "fake news"  ;D


----------



## tomahawk6

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> And I quoted the WH page to head off the worst accusations of "fake news"  ;D



 ;D

https://www.stripes.com/news/nuke-sniffer-ballistic-recon-aircraft-deploy-to-okinawa-amid-rising-tensions-with-n-korea-1.486700#.WbLPeMu0m70







An Air Force WC-135 Constant Phoenix, which is commonly referred to as a nuke-sniffer, arrived at Kadena Air Base, Japan, Sept. 5, 2017, days after North Korea's sixth and most powerful nuclear test.


----------



## The Bread Guy

OK, then - NOW I'm feeling safer ...


> *Dennis Rodman Offers to ‘Straighten Things Out’ Between Trump and Kim Jong-un*
> Adam K. Raymond, nymag.com, 6 Sept 2017
> 
> With Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un locked in a nerve-racking war of words that’s edging the world ever closer to nuclear catastrophe, a relatively sane voice has emerged and offered to “straighten things out” between the leaders of the U.S. and North Korea.
> 
> Dennis Rodman, the ex–NBA star who claims both Trump and Kim as friends, told Good Morning Britain Wednesday, “I just want to try to straighten things out for everyone to get along together.” In addition to his own mediation, Rodman suggested that Trump attempt to talk with Kim to find common ground and avoid violent confrontation ...


*More @ link*


----------



## a_majoor

Starting to wonder about this. The DPRK hasn't demonstrated a great deal of technological art (including a multitude of spectacular missile failures), yet suddenly is not only making relatively reliable missiles, but showing off advanced solid fuel technology as well? Suggestions that the DPRK is getting foreign rocket technology suddenly does seem to have a bit more veracity:

http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/23/asia/north-korea-missile-program-photos/index.html



> *New North Korea photos reveal hidden details of missile program*
> By Ben Westcott, CNN
> Updated 9:12 PM ET, Wed August 23, 2017
> 
> North Korea's Kim called for more solid-fuel rocket engines to be built, state media said
> (CNN)Newly released photos appear to reveal unexpected advances in North Korea's missile program, experts say, including a previously unseen type of projectile.
> 
> On Wednesday, North Korean state media KCNA announced leader Kim Jong Un had visited the country's Chemical Material Institute of the Academy of Defense Sciences.
> 
> "He instructed the institute to produce more solid-fuel rocket engines and rocket warhead tips by further expanding engine production process," the statement said.
> 
> But it was the photos of the inspection released by state media which missile analysts seized upon immediately.
> 
> "This is the North Koreans showing us, or at least portraying, that their solid-fuel missile program is improving at a steady rate," David Schmerler, research associate at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey's James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, told CNN.
> 
> One photo of Kim reveals a poster on the wall clearly mentioning a missile called "Pukguksong-3," a potential successor to the previous two versions of the missile which were both solid-fuel, medium-range projectiles.
> 
> North Korea's desire to build solid-fuel missiles is driven by their need for projectiles they can launch quickly and subtly, said Michael Duitsman, also a research associate at the James Martin Centre.
> 
> "Solid fuel missiles are much faster to deploy ... a solid fuel missile is always fueled so all they have to do is drive it to the place they want to launch it," he said.
> 
> "It's much easier to put into action, much harder to catch before it launches because they're a lot less in terms of launch preparations that could be done."
> 
> All ballistic missiles owned by the United States and Russia are solid-fuel models, according to Dustman.
> 
> In another, the North Korean leader stands next to a large copper-colored container, which experts said could be a wound-filament reinforced plastic rocket casing.
> 
> "It's not a missile test but it's still very disconcerting for people who look at the North Korean ballistic missile program," Duitsman.
> "Seeing the casing ... is sooner than I expected."
> 
> Both experts said the wound-filament casing seen in one photo would be lighter than previous metal versions, allowing North Korea's missiles to fly further.
> 
> When the US Navy first switched to the lighter casing during the 1960s their missiles flew an additional 500 miles, an increase of about 50 per cent, Duitsman said. "They also switched the propellant (though)," he added.
> 
> Schlermer said it was unlikely that either the revelation of the new missiles or the filament casing were a mistake by Pyongyang.
> "I don't think there's any accident about this, the shot clearly shows Pukguksong-3, this was the North Koreans showing us what we could possibly see soon," he said.
> 
> 8/ Thus, the ability to produce large wound-filament casings was crucial to the development of Soviet road-mobile ICBMs & IRBMs. pic.twitter.com/zWQcWMjtg7
> 
> — Michael Duitsman (@DuitsyWasHere) April 21, 2017
> 
> High-profile US leaders have praised Pyongyang for showing "restraint" in pulling back from its previous pledges to launch missiles into the sea around Guam.
> 
> One week ago, US President Donald Trump sent a tweet saying Kim had made a "wise decision" not to launch a missile, adding the alternative would have been "both catastrophic and unacceptable."
> 
> Speaking at a rally in Arizona Wednesday, Trump claimed Kim was "starting to respect us."
> 
> "I respect that fact very much. Respect that fact. And maybe probably not, but maybe, something positive could come about. (The media) won't tell you that. But maybe something positive could come about," he told supporters.
> 
> US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has also presented a more conciliatory face to North Korea in recent days, saying the US was open to dialogue with the rogue state.
> 
> "I think it is worth noting, we have had no missile launches or provocative acts on the part of, or provocative actions, on the part of North Korea since the UN Security Council resolution" sanctioning Pyongyang on August 5, Tillerson said Tuesday.
> 
> "I am pleased to see that the regime in Pyongyang has demonstrated restraint. We hope this is the signal we have been looking for, that they are ready to restrain provocative acts. And perhaps we are seeing a pathway in the near future to having some dialogue"


----------



## tomahawk6

They have a partnership with Iran. The Norks provide the nuclear know how and Iran the money and missile technology.


----------



## CBH99

How does Iran provide them with the technology & money though?

From a physical perspective, how does Iran get the necessary equipments & parts to North Korea without them being intercepted first?  The Persian Gulf is saturated with allied warships, and any ships heading to North Korea are bound to run into someone from our side...

And from a land perspective, how does any shipment not immediately get intercepted and/or bombed as soon as it leaves Iran?  I'm sure CIA/FBI/MI6/Mossad & about a dozen other western intelligence agencies have a pretty firm idea on who is who, what is what, and where things are going once it leaves the Iranian border...

So I ask my question in all seriousness.  How does the technology make it's way from Point A to Point B?


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Most of the tech bits will fit into a jet cargo aircraft, the rest would be people, plans and software.


----------



## a_majoor

An interview with a person who (at great risk) entered the DPRK and took careful notes and recordings:

https://theintercept.com/2017/09/04/undercover-in-north-korea-all-paths-lead-to-catastrophe/



> *UNDERCOVER IN NORTH KOREA: “ALL PATHS LEAD TO CATASTROPHE”*
> Jon Schwarz
> September 4 2017, 11:19 a.m.
> 
> THE MOST ALARMING aspect of North Korea’s latest nuclear test, and the larger standoff with the U.S., is how little is known about how North Korea truly functions. For 70 years it’s been sealed off from the rest of the world to a degree hard to comprehend, especially at a time when people in Buenos Aires need just one click to share cat videos shot in Kuala Lumpur. Few outsiders have had intimate contact with North Korean society, and even fewer are in a position to talk about it.
> 
> One of the extremely rare exceptions is novelist and journalist Suki Kim. Kim, who was born in South Korea and moved to the U.S. at age 13, spent much of 2011 teaching English to children of North Korea’s elite at the Pyongyang University of Science and Technology.
> 
> Kim had visited North Korea several times before and had written about her experiences for Harper’s Magazine and the New York Review of Books. Incredibly, however, neither Kim’s North Korean minders nor the Christian missionaries who founded and run PUST realized that she was there undercover to engage in some of history’s riskiest investigative journalism.
> 
> Although all of PUST’s staff was kept under constant surveillance, Kim kept notes and documents on hidden USB sticks and her camera’s SIM card. If her notes had been discovered, she almost certainly would have been accused of espionage and faced imprisonment in the country’s terrifying labor camps. In fact, of the three Americans currently detained in North Korea, two were teachers at PUST. Moreover, the Pentagon has in fact used a Christian NGO as a front for genuine spying on North Korea.
> 
> But Kim was never caught, and she returned to the U.S. to write her extraordinary 2014 book, “Without You, There Is No Us.” The title comes from the lyrics of an old North Korean song; the “you” is Kim Jong-il, Kim Jong-un’s father.
> 
> Kim’s book is particularly important for anyone who wants to understand what happens next with North Korea. Her experience made her extremely pessimistic about every aspect of the country, including the regime’s willingness to renounce its nuclear weapons program. North Korea functions, she believes, as a true cult, with all of the country’s pre-cult existence now passed out of human memory.
> 
> Most ominously, her students, all young men in their late teens or early 20s, were firmly embedded in the cult. With the Kim family autocracy now on its third generation, you’d expect the people who actually run North Korea to have abandoned whatever ideology they started with and degenerated into standard human corruption. But PUST’s enrollees, their children, did not go skiing in Gstaad on school breaks; they didn’t even appear to be able to travel anywhere within North Korea. Instead they studied the North Korea ideology of “juche,” or worked on collective farms.
> 
> Unsurprisingly, then, Kim’s students were shockingly ignorant of the outside world. They didn’t recognize pictures of the Taj Mahal or Egyptian pyramids. One had heard that everyone on earth spoke Korean because it was recognized as the world’s most superior language. Another believed that the Korean dish naengmyeon was seen as the best food on earth. And all of Kim’s pupils were soaked in a culture of lying, telling her preposterous falsehoods so often that she writes, “I could not help but think that they – my beloved students – were insane.” Nonetheless, they were still recognizably human and charmingly innocent and for their part, came to adore their teachers.
> 
> Overall, “Without You, There Is No Us” is simply excruciatingly sad. All of Korea has been the plaything of Japan, the U.S., the Soviet Union, and China, and like most Korean families, Kim has close relatives who ended up in North Korea when the country was separated and have never been seen again. Korea is now, Kim says, irrevocably ruptured:
> 
> It occurred to me that it was all futile, the fantasy of Korean unity, the five thousand years of Korean identity, because the unified nation was broken, irreparably, in 1945 when a group of politicians drew a random line across the map, separating families who would die without ever meeting again, with all their sorrow and anger and regret unrequited, their bodies turning to earth, becoming part of this land … behind the children of the elite who were now my children for a brief time, these lovely, lying children, I saw very clearly that there was no redemption here.
> 
> The Intercept spoke recently to Kim about her time in North Korea and the insight it gives her on the current crisis.
> 
> JON SCHWARZ: I found your book just overwhelmingly sorrowful. As an American, I can’t imagine being somewhere that’s been brutalized by not just one powerful country, but two or three or four. Then the government of North Korea and, to a lesser degree, the government of South Korea used that suffering to consolidate their own power. And then maybe saddest of all was to see these young men, your students, who were clearly still people, but inside a terrible system and on a path to doing terrible things to everybody else in North Korea.
> 
> SUKI KIM: Right, because there’s no other way of being in that country. We don’t have any other country like that. People so easily compare North Korea to Cuba or East Germany or even China. But none of them have been like North Korea – this amount of isolation, this amount of control. It encompasses every aspect of dictatorship-slash-cult.
> 
> What I was thinking about when I was living there is it’s almost too late to undo this. The young men I was living with had never known any other way.
> 
> The whole thing begins with the division of Korea in 1945. People think it began with the Korean War, but the Korean War only happened because of the 1945 division [of Korea by the U.S. and Soviet Union at the end of World War II]. What we’re seeing is Korea stuck in between.
> 
> JS: Essentially no Americans know what happened between 1945 and the start of the Korean War. And few Americans know what happened during the war. [Syngman Rhee, the U.S.-installed ultra right-wing South Korean dictator, massacred tens of thousands of South Koreans before North Korea invaded in 1950. Rhee’s government executed another 100,000 South Koreans in the war’s early months. Then the barbaric U.S. air war against North Korea killed perhaps one-fifth of its population.]
> 
> SK: This “mystery of North Korea” that people talk about all the time – people should be asking why Korea is divided and why there are American soldiers in South Korea. These questions are not being asked at all. Once you look at how this whole thing began, it makes some sense why North Korea uses this hatred of the United States as a tool to justify and uphold the Great Leader myth. Great Leader has always been the savior and the rescuer who was protecting them from the imperialist American attack. That story is why North Korea has built their whole foundation not only on the juche philosophy but hatred of the United States.
> 
> JS: Based on your experience, how do you perceive the nuclear issue with North Korea?
> 
> SK: Nothing will change because it’s an unworkable problem. It’s very dishonest to think this can be solved. North Korea will never give up its nuclear weapons. Never.
> 
> The only way North Korea can be dealt with is if this regime is not the way it is. No agreements are ever honored because North Korea just doesn’t do that. It’s a land of lies. So why keep making agreements with someone who’s never going to honor those agreements?
> 
> And ultimately what all the countries surrounding North Korea want is a regime change. What they’re doing is pretending to have an agreement saying they do not want a regime change, but pursuing regime change anyway.
> 
> Despite it all you have to constantly do engagement efforts, throwing information in there. That’s the only option. There’s no other way North Korea will change. Nothing will ever change without the outside pouring some resources in there.
> 
> JS: What is the motivation of the people who actually call the shots in North Korea to hold onto the nuclear weapons?
> 
> SK: They don’t have anything else. There’s literally nothing else they can rely on. The fact they’re a nuclear power is the only reason anyone would be negotiating with them at this point. It’s their survival.
> 
> Regime change is what they fear. That’s what the whole country is built on.
> 
> JS: Even with a different kind of regime, it’s hard to argue that it would be rational for them to give up their nuclear weapons, after seeing what happened to Saddam Hussein and Moammar Gadhafi.
> 
> SK: This is a very simple equation. There is no reason for them to give up nuclear weapons. Nothing will make them give them up.
> 
> JS: I’ve always believed that North Korea would never engage in a nuclear first strike just out of self-preservation. But your description of your students did honestly give me pause. It made me think the risk of miscalculation on their part is higher than I realized.
> 
> SK: It was paradoxical. They could be very smart, yet could be completely deluded about everything. I don’t see why that would be different in the people who run the country. The ones that foreigners get to meet, like diplomats, are sophisticated and can talk to you on your level. But at the same time they also have this other side where they have really been raised to think differently, their reality is skewed. North Korea is the center of the universe, the rest of the world kind of doesn’t exist. They’ve been living this way for 70 years, in a complete cult.
> 
> My students did not know what the internet was, in 2011. Computer majors, from the best schools in Pyongyang. The system really is that brutal, for everyone.
> 
> JS: Even their powerful parents seemed to have very little ability to make any decisions involving their children. They couldn’t have their children come home, they couldn’t come out and visit.
> 
> SK: You would expect that exceptions were always being made [for children of elites], but that just wasn’t true. They couldn’t call home. There was no way of communicating with their parents at all. There are literally no exceptions made. There is no power or agency.
> 
> I also found it shocking that they had not been anywhere within their own country. You would think that of all these elite kids, at least some would have seen the famous mountains [of North Korea]. None of them had.
> 
> That absoluteness is why North Korea is the way it is.
> 
> JS: What would you recommend if you could create the North Korea policy for the U.S. and other countries?
> 
> SK: It’s a problem that no one has been able to solve.
> 
> It’s not a system that they can moderate. The Great Leader can’t be moderated. You can’t be a little bit less god. The Great Leader system has to break.
> 
> But it’s impossible to imagine. I find it to be a completely bleak problem. People have been deprived of any tools that they need, education, information, intellectual volition to think for themselves.
> 
> [Military] intervention is not going to work because it’s a nuclear power. I guess it has to happen in pouring information into North Korea in whatever capacity.
> 
> But then the population are abused victims of a cult ideology. Even if the Great Leader is gone, another form of dictatorship will take its place.
> 
> Every path is a catastrophe. This is why even defectors, when they flee, usually turn into devout fundamentalist Christians. I’d love to offer up solutions, but everything leads to a dead end.
> 
> One thing that gave me a small bit of hope is the fact that Kim Jong-un is more reckless than the previous leader [his father Kim Jong-il]. To get your uncle and brother killed within a few years of rising to power, that doesn’t really bode well for a guy who’s only there because of his family name. His own bloodline is the only thing keeping him in that position. You shouldn’t be killing your own family members, that’s self-sabotage.
> 
> JS: Looking at history, it seems to me that normally what you’d expect is that eventually the royal family will get too nuts, the grandson will be too crazy, and the military and whatever economic powers there are going to decide, well, we don’t need this guy anymore. So we’re going to get rid of this guy and then the military will run things. But that’s seems impossible in North Korea: You must have this family in charge, the military couldn’t say, oh by the way, the country’s now being run by some general.
> 
> SK: They already built the brand, Great Leader is the most powerful brand. That’s why the assassination of [Kim Jong-un’s older half-brother and the original heir to the Kim dynasty] Kim Jong-nam was really a stupid thing to do. Basically that assassination proved that this royal bloodline can be murdered. And that leaves room open for that possibility. Because there are other bloodline figures for them to put in his place. He’s not the only one. So to kill [Jong-nam] set the precedent that this can happen.
> 
> JS: One small thing I found particularly appalling was the buddy system with your students, where everyone had a buddy and spent all their time with their buddy and seemed like the closest of friends – and then your buddy was switched and you never spent time with your old buddy again.
> 
> SK: The buddy system is just to keep up the system of surveillance. It doesn’t matter that these are 19-year-old boys making friends. That’s how much humanity is not acknowledged or valued. There’s a North Korean song which compares each citizen to a bullet in this great weapon for the Great Leader. And that’s the way they live.
> 
> JS: I was also struck by your description of the degeneration of language in North Korea. [Kim writes that “Each time I visited the DPRK, I was shocked anew by their bastardization of the Korean language. Curses had taken root not only in their conversation and speeches but in their written language. They were everywhere – in poems, newspapers, in official Workers’ Party speeches, even in the lyrics of songs. … It was like finding the words fuck and shit in a presidential speech or on the front page of the New York Times.”]
> 
> SK: Yes, I think the language does reflect the society. Of course, the whole system is built around the risk of an impending war. So that violence has changed the Korean language. Plus these guys are thugs, Kim Jong-un and all the rest of them, that’s their taste and it’s become the taste of the country.
> 
> JS: Authoritarians universally seem to have terrible taste.
> 
> SK: It’s interesting to be analyzing North Korea in this period of time in America because there are a lot of similarities. Look at Trump’s nonstop tweeting about “fake news” and how great he is. That’s very familiar, that’s what North Korea does. It’s just endless propaganda. All these buildings with all these slogans shouting at you all the time, constantly talking about how the enemies are lying all the time.
> 
> Those catchy one-liners, how many words are there in a tweet? It’s very similar to those [North Korean] slogans.
> 
> This country right now, where you’re no longer able to tell what’s true or what’s a lie, starting from the top, that’s North Korea’s biggest problem. America should really look at that, there’s a lesson.
> 
> JS: Well, I felt bad after I read your book and I feel even worse now.
> 
> SK: To be honest, I wonder if tragedies have a time limit – not to fix them, but to make them less horrifying. And I feel like it’s just too late. If you wipe out humanity to this level, and have three generations of it … when you see the humanity of North Koreans is when the horror becomes that much greater. You see how humanity can be so distorted and manipulated and violated. You face the devastation of what’s truly at stake.
> 
> This interview has been edited for length and clarity.


----------



## The Bread Guy

This*** from the PRK info-machine on the latest sanctions ...


> *DPRK FM Categorically Rejects Harshest-ever UNSC's "Resolution on Sanctions"*
> 
> The Foreign Ministry of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea issued the following report on September 13:
> 
> The U.S. and its vassal forces have rigged up yet another "resolution on sanctions" harsher than ever against the DPRK at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) on September 12 condemning its ICBM mountable H-bomb test as "a threat" to international peace and security.
> 
> The "resolution" was fabricated by the U.S. employing all sorts of despicable and vicious means and methods. The DPRK condemns in the strongest terms and categorically rejects the UNSC "resolution 2375" on sanctions as a product of heinous provocation aimed at depriving the DPRK of its legitimate right for self-defense and completely suffocating its state and people through full-scale economic blockade.
> 
> The adoption of another illegal and evil "resolution on sanctions" piloted by the U.S. served as an occasion for the DPRK to verify that the road it chose to go down was absolutely right and to strengthen its resolve to follow this road at a faster pace without the slightest diversion until this fight to the finish is over.
> 
> Since the scheme of the U.S. to impede the DPRK's development, disarm it through the unprecedented sanctions and pressure, and conquer it with the help of nuclear weapons has become clearly evident, the DPRK will redouble the efforts to increase its strength to safeguard the country's sovereignty and right to existence and to preserve peace and security of the region by establishing the practical equilibrium with the U.S.
> 
> KCNA​


*** - Links to an archive.org copy of the statement to avoid linking directly to a PRK page.


----------



## a_majoor

This is probably not the response the DPRK and the Chinese were looking for:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/09/13/most-south-koreans-dont-think-the-north-will-start-a-war-but-they-still-want-their-own-nuclear-weapons/?utm_term=.060f7005e6b4



> *More than ever, South Koreans want their own nuclear weapons*
> By Michelle Ye Hee Lee September 13 at 4:47 AM
> 
> People watch a television news screen at a railway station in Seoul showing file footage of a North Korean missile launch. (Jung Yeon-je/AFP/Getty)
> SEOUL — It seemed like a fringe idea not too long ago, but the proposal for South Korea to have its own nuclear arms is gaining steam here.
> 
> There are many reasons South Korea probably will not pursue this path. A big one: President Moon Jae-in took office in May promising a path toward denuclearization of the whole peninsula, so the chances of South Korean nuclear armament are slim.
> 
> But this debate has become a key issue following North Korea's sixth and most powerful nuclear test on Sept. 3, and the controversy underscores the frustration in the country over North Korea’s expanding nuclear and missile program.
> 
> Throughout much of the Cold War, the United States had stationed nuclear-armed weapons in South Korea. Then in 1991, President George H.W. Bush withdrew all tactical nuclear weapons deployed abroad, and Moscow reciprocated.
> 
> The debate over redeploying those weapons is sharply dividing South Korean politics. The main opposition party is now doubling down on its calls for a redeployment of tactical nuclear weapons, buoyed by widely circulated reports from the weekend citing a senior White House official that the Trump administration isn't ruling it out as an option, as well as similar comments by Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), whom many here recognize as a leading U.S. voice in security matters.
> 
> "The Korean defense minister just a few days ago called for nuclear weapons to be redeployed. We had them there once in South Korea. ... I think it ought to be seriously considered," McCain said on CNN’s "State of the Union" on Sunday.
> 
> Most South Koreans don’t think the North will actually start a war, according to the latest Gallup Korea poll, conducted after North Korea’s nuclear test Sept. 3.
> 
> Still, 60 percent of South Koreans in theory support nuclear weapons for the country, according to Gallup Korea. A poll by YTN, a cable news channel, in August found 68 percent of respondents supported redeploying tactical nuclear weapons to South Korea.
> 
> [South Korea’s defense minister suggests bringing back tactical U.S. nuclear weapons]
> 
> After South Korea’s defense minister said earlier this month that it was worth reviewing a redeployment of tactical nuclear weapons, other administration officials have distanced the Blue House — South Korea's executive mansion — from the proposal. Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha said this week that South Korea is not considering the option and has not discussed it with Washington, but she acknowledged that public opinion on the issue is shifting to support the option.
> 
> The centrist newspaper JoongAng Daily wrote in an editorial Tuesday that there is a “noticeable change in South Koreans’ attitudes about the redeployment of the nukes. Two recent polls show that the nuclear option was backed by nearly two-thirds of the people. As the debate becomes a hot potato, the Moon administration must make a wise decision.”
> 
> Kim Sung-han, dean of Korea University’s Graduate School of International Studies and former vice foreign minister, said he fielded calls all day Tuesday from local media asking about the possibility of South Korean nuclear armament, following the United Nations' vote on a watered-down version of sanctions on North Korea. The United States, South Korea and Japan had pushed for a full crude oil embargo, which would have crippled the North Korean economy, but the U.N. resolution instead imposed a cap on oil imports to Pyongyang.
> 
> “The mainstream view is now changing in South Korea,” Kim said. “Even within the governing party, we are now hearing some of these voices who are supporting redeployment or South Korea going nuclear by herself, particularly after North Korea's sixth nuclear test."
> 
> South Koreans are “beginning to be concerned about whether we have to continue to live under the U.S.-provided nuclear umbrella support, so they have begun to suspect the reliability of nuclear extended deterrence provided by the United States,” Kim said.
> 
> Under previous U.S. administrations, the return of tactical nuclear armament seemed out of reach. Moon’s immediate predecessor, Park Geun-hye, reportedly requested in October 2016 to redeploy the tactical weapons but was denied, South Korean media reported this week.
> 
> But now, South Koreans are wondering: Who knows what will happen under President Trump?
> 
> During the U.S. presidential election, then-candidate Trump said he would support nuclear armament of South Korea and Japan as a defensive tactic against North Korea. If Trump did so, it would represent a sharp shift in U.S. policy.
> 
> In the meantime, the ruling Minjoo Party of Korea is united with the Blue House in rejecting calls for nuclear armament and pushing for a diplomatic and political solution.
> 
> "It is undesirable for us to be seen as having no will to resolve (the standoff) politically and diplomatically any more, amid this dispute over nuclear armament," said Choo Mi-ae, head of the Minjoo party, at a recent meeting with senior party officials, reported Yonhap News.


----------



## daftandbarmy

'Quite backwards': Chinese tourists gawk at impoverished North Koreans 

“Look there, over to the right,” he joked as a North Korean man on a bicycle peddled past along the river bank. “Just look at these North Korean private cars! All imported! Made in Japan!”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/14/quite-backwards-chinese-tourists-gawk-at-impoverished-north-koreans


----------



## The Bread Guy

Thucydides said:
			
		

> This is probably not the response the DPRK and the Chinese were looking for:
> 
> https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/09/13/most-south-koreans-dont-think-the-north-will-start-a-war-but-they-still-want-their-own-nuclear-weapons/?utm_term=.060f7005e6b4
> 
> 
> 
> *More than ever, South Koreans want their own nuclear weapons*
> By Michelle Ye Hee Lee September 13 at 4:47 AM ...
Click to expand...

So far, a non-starter for the President ...


> President Moon Jae-in on Thursday dismissed the possibility of deploying nuclear weapons to South Korea, amid growing public support in the wake of North Korea’s sixth nuclear test earlier in the month.
> 
> “I do not agree that South Korea needs to develop our own nuclear weapons or relocate tactical nuclear weapons in the face of North Korea’s nuclear threat,” Moon said in an interview with CNN.
> 
> “To respond to North Korea by having our own nuclear weapons will not maintain peace on the Korean Peninsula and could lead to a nuclear arms race in northeast Asia,” he added.
> 
> Moon did accept, however, that the ROK needed “to develop our military capabilities in the face of North Korea’s nuclear advancement.”
> 
> Since Pyongyang’s sixth nuclear test on September 3, the main opposition Liberty Korea Party has called for the redeployment of tactical nuclear weapons on the peninsula.
> 
> John McCain, Chairman of the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee, on Sunday also called for Seoul to consider it as a deterrent, in an interview with CNN.
> 
> “The Korean defense minister just a few days ago called for nuclear weapons to be redeployed,” McCain said, adding he thought “it ought to be seriously considered.”
> 
> South Korean Minister of National Defense Song Young-mo earlier in the month said that redeployment was “worth reviewing,” in a statement to the National Assembly’s Defense Committee.
> 
> “I expect a strong demand, but that is the matter which should be deeply examined from the perspective of the denuclearization issue between the South and the U.S., international relations, and North Korea issues,” Song said, when asked if further North Korean testing would change his mind. “It could be one alternative.”
> 
> Song, however, later told lawmakers that he was “not reviewing” redeployment at a parliamentary hearing held on Tuesday.
> 
> First Vice Chief of National Security Office (NSO) Lee Sang-chul reiterated on Tuesday that the Moon Jae-in government had “never reviewed the redeployment of tactical nuclear weapons” and that Seoul’s opposition to the policy had not changed.
> 
> “Political circles and media can raise the issue of the redeployment of the tactical nuclear weapons as one of the countermeasures to deal with North Korean nuclear and missile threats,” Lee told media. “But there are many problems if we do from the perspective of the government.”
> 
> Lee said the move would “violate the basic principle of the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula.”
> 
> Tactical nuclear weapons were withdrawn from the Republic of Korea under the Joint Declaration on the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula pact agreed between the North and the South in 1991 and signed in January the next year.
> 
> “There is a concern that [the decision] could weaken or lose the justification of [achieving] the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula through the discard of the North Korean nuclear weapons, which we are pursuing,” Lee told media.
> 
> A recent survey by Gallup Korea said that 60% out of 1004 South Korean respondents agreed with the country having its own nuclear weapons, with 35% opposed.


----------



## The Bread Guy

_*Again!*_

_*"North Korea has fired a ballistic missile eastwards from its capital, Pyongyang, media reports say.  Japan said that the missile likely passed over its territory and has warned residents to take shelter, local media report ..."*_ (BBC)
_*"N. Korea fires missile from Pyongyang: S. Korean military"*_ (Yonhap, KOR media)
_*"North Korea has launched a ballistic missile over Japan for the second time in less than a month, Seoul and Tokyo have confirmed ..."*_ (_The Australian_)


----------



## The Bread Guy

In spite of KOR's president not wanting nukes in the south, U.S. politicians are thinking a bit differently ...


> The U.S. Senate is reviewing a defense bill for 2018 that includes the redeployment of submarine-based nuclear missiles in the Asia-Pacific region.
> 
> The plan is apparently aimed at deterring North Korean nuclear and missile provocations.
> 
> Senator Mazie Hirono, a Democrat from Hawaii, proposed the amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act in July. It calls for several changes in U.S. nuclear weapons deployment, including redeployment of submarine-based nuclear cruise missiles that were pulled out of the Asia-Pacific region some 20 years ago.
> 
> It also calls for the deployment of aircraft that can carry both conventional and nuclear weapons in the region, extending the missile defense network and stepping up military drills with allies ...


----------



## Colin Parkinson

One option is the "Balloon war" Start flooding the country with balloons with messages, radios, USB sticks and pictures. The NK hate them, but it's the only real non-military threat we can use.


----------



## Oldgateboatdriver

Actually, Colin, balloon wars can also be dangerous, apparently:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=La4Dcd1aUcE&list=RDLa4Dcd1aUcE&index=1


----------



## a_majoor

I'd add guided parafoils to the mix to ensure a targeted delivery of the goods and information, a mix of items delivered "to the doorstep" and found randomly in farm fields is one way to break the information monopoly of the DPRK. People often don't realize how much freedom of information frightens oppressive regimes, the former USSR and photocopiers and FAX machines under lock and key, for example.

Of course, getting people to use that information and strike up a 4GW insurgency inside the DPRK might need personal example and cultivation of leadership; this is the traditional job of the US Special Forces (Green Berets). The ROK must have a similar capability in their armed forces or the action arm of their Intelligence agencies.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Colin P said:
			
		

> One option is the "Balloon war" Start flooding the country with balloons with messages, radios, USB sticks and pictures. The NK hate them, but it's the only real non-military threat we can use.


Or, taking that a step or two further ...


> When Jocko Willink‏, a former US Navy SEAL who is now an author and occasional Business Insider contributor, was asked on Twitter how he would handle the North Korean crisis, he gave an unexpected answer that one expert said just might work.
> 
> Willink's proposal didn't involve any covert special operation strikes or military moves of any kind. Instead of bombs, Willink suggested the US drop iPhones.
> 
> "Drop 25 million iPhones on them and put satellites over them with free wifi," Willink tweeted last week.
> 
> While the proposal itself is fantastical and far-fetched, Yun Sun, an expert on North Korea at the Stimson Center, says the core concept could work.
> 
> "Kim Jong Un understands that as soon as society is open and North Korean people realize what they're missing, Kim's regime is unsustainable, and it's going to be overthrown," Sun told Business Insider.
> 
> For this reason, North Korea's government would strongly oppose any measures that mirror Willink's suggestion.
> 
> Sun pointed out that when South Korea had previously flown balloons that dropped pamphlets and DVDs over North Korea, the Kim regime had responded militarily, sensing the frailty of its government relative to those of prosperous liberal democracies ....


----------



## The Bread Guy

One White House briefing (can't find a transcript yet), many takes ...

_*"McMaster says there is military option against N. Korea "*_ (Yonhap KOR news agency)
_*"McMaster on N Korea's Latest Missile Launch: Military Option Still Possible"*_ (RIA Novosti - RUS media)
_*"Officials: Trump has military options for North Korea"*_ (CNN)
_*"Nikki Haley to North Korea: 'No problem' letting Mattis deal with you"*_ (FOX News)
_*"U.S. nearing limits of diplomacy on North Korea: Trump adviser McMaster"*_ (Reuters)
_*"Mattis has "plenty of options" on North Korea, Nikki Haley says in White House briefing"*_ (CBS News)


----------



## daftandbarmy

Colin P said:
			
		

> One option is the "Balloon war" Start flooding the country with balloons with messages, radios, USB sticks and pictures. The NK hate them, but it's the only real non-military threat we can use.



The easier option? We could surrender to North Korea... for a little while


----------



## EpicBeardedMan

daftandbarmy said:
			
		

> The easier option? We could surrender to North Korea... for a little while


Send Dennis Rodman as an envoy for the people of the world.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

daftandbarmy said:
			
		

> The easier option? We could surrender to North Korea... for a little while



We could have the Great Leader come and solve all our problems with his "advice". Mind you a 6 month stint at a NK farm for all 18 year old Canadians might do them a world of good and they be quite happy with life here.


----------



## The Bread Guy

From POTUS45's speech @ the U.N. today ...


> ...  The scourge of our planet today is a small group of rogue regimes that violate every principle on which the United Nations is based.  They respect neither their own citizens nor the sovereign rights of their countries.
> 
> If the righteous many do not confront the wicked few, then evil will triumph.  When decent people and nations become bystanders to history, the forces of destruction only gather power and strength.
> 
> No one has shown more contempt for other nations and for the wellbeing of their own people than the depraved regime in North Korea.  It is responsible for the starvation deaths of millions of North Koreans, and for the imprisonment, torture, killing, and oppression of countless more.
> 
> We were all witness to the regime's deadly abuse when an innocent American college student, Otto Warmbier, was returned to America only to die a few days later.  We saw it in the assassination of the dictator's brother using banned nerve agents in an international airport.  We know it kidnapped a sweet 13-year-old Japanese girl from a beach in her own country to enslave her as a language tutor for North Korea's spies.
> 
> If this is not twisted enough, now North Korea's reckless pursuit of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles threatens the entire world with unthinkable loss of human life.
> 
> It is an outrage that some nations would not only trade with such a regime, but would arm, supply, and financially support a country that imperils the world with nuclear conflict.  No nation on earth has an interest in seeing this band of criminals arm itself with nuclear weapons and missiles.
> 
> The United States has great strength and patience, but if it is forced to defend itself or its allies, we will have no choice but to totally destroy North Korea.  Rocket Man is on a suicide mission for himself and for his regime.  The United States is ready, willing and able, but hopefully this will not be necessary.  That’s what the United Nations is all about; that’s what the United Nations is for.  Let’s see how they do.
> 
> It is time for North Korea to realize that the denuclearization is its only acceptable future.  The United Nations Security Council recently held two unanimous 15-0 votes adopting hard-hitting resolutions against North Korea, and I want to thank China and Russia for joining the vote to impose sanctions, along with all of the other members of the Security Council.  Thank you to all involved.
> 
> But we must do much more.  It is time for all nations to work together to isolate the Kim regime until it ceases its hostile behavior ...


----------



## a_majoor

Strategy page analysis (long post). This is interesting in the reporting that the senior leadership is losing confidence in the Kim Regime, and actually ties in somewhat with an article I reference on this (Robert Kaplan: When North Korea Falls, which suggests that when the Kim family loses its grip on power the collapse will be sudden and catastrophic:

https://strategypage.com/qnd/korea/articles/20170915.aspx
(Part 1)



> *Korea: Escalation Is A Two-Way Street*
> 
> September 15, 2017: Every nation has its priorities and for North Korea it is all about image. Most people see that in terms of North Korean nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles. But there are other equally important (to the North Korean leaders) issues that get little publicity, and that is intentional. In mid-2017 North Korea ordered its secret police to expand its operations in northeast China (the area just across the northern border) so as to suppress news about the growing number of senior and mid-level officials who are, often with their families, illegally leaving North Korea. The single incident that prompted this new secret police effort was the suicide of one of these families (all five of them). The five took poison after being arrested by Chinese police and facing repatriation to North Korea, where they entire family would probably die anyway but more slowly and painfully. The secret police were ordered to increase efforts to prevent such defections in the first place. That will be difficult because the mood among many North Korean officials can best be described as suppressed (so the secret police don’t take note) panic and increased efforts to escape from the country and get to South Korea.
> 
> Senior North Korean officials who have gotten out in the last few years all agree that Kim Jong Un is considered a failure by more and more North Koreans and that his days are numbered, even if China does not step in and take over beforehand. Yet these senior officials report that Kim Jong Un could keep his police state going into the late 2020s. But time is not on his side and the signs backing that up are increasingly obvious. Kim Jong Un has triggered a trend that will destroy him and nothing he does seems to fix the problem. He believes having workable nukes and a reliable delivery system (ballistic missiles) will enable him to extort the neighbors for enough goodies to bail him out. That is a high-risk strategy. Kim Jong Un is betting everything on this and none of the potential victims seems ready to give in and are instead planning to meet nuclear threats with force not surrender. Escalation and intimidation work both ways.


- mod edit to fix colour/format coding -


----------



## a_majoor

(part 2)
Coming Up Short

North Korea has reduced its physical standards for military service. Previously conscripts had to be 150 cm (59 inches) tall and weigh at least 48 kg (106 pounds). But that standard has been reduced over the last decade to 137 cm (54 inches) and 43 kg (95 pounds). Now the government is urging teenage boys to volunteer for service when they are 15 years old. Actually, local officials have been given quotas and are coercing families of 15 year old boys to go along with this. With all the food shortages and unemployment the government sees that as an incentive. But most teenagers prefer to try their luck with the market economy and eventually make enough money to get out of North Korea.

The government needs more soldiers because of a lower birthrate and the inability to reverse the problem. South Korea also has this problem but for different reasons. By 2010 South Korea had the lowest birth rate (1.15 children per woman, on average) in the world and held that dubious achievement for two years in a row. This is because of growing affluence over the last half century. South Korea is now one of the wealthiest nations on the planet. At the current birth rate, the South Korean population is expected to stop growing in the 2020s, after reaching about 52 million (about twice the population of the north). If the birth rate stays under 2.1, the population will then begin to shrink. In North Korea, the birth rate is 1.9, and is also declining, because of increasing poverty and famine. For example, life expectancy in the north has declined from 72.7 years in the early 1990s, to 69.3 now. That's ten years less than in South Korea. Northerners are not only living shorter lives, they are also shorter. A study of teenagers in the north and south revealed that the northerners are 8 percent shorter, and weigh nearly 20 percent less. It's not as bad with older adults, because they were not born during the famine (which began after Cold War Russian subsidies ended in the early 1990s).

By 2012 there was a very visible shortage of recruits for the North Korean armed forces. A lower birth rate in the 1990s, because of the famine (that killed five percent of the population back then) has reduced the number of 18 year old recruits for the army and security forces. So fewer exemptions are being allowed, and more 17 years olds are being taken. That escalated to pressuring 16 year olds to volunteer. Now the government is after 15 year olds. North Korean men serve at least six years (and up to ten) in the military, keeping them out of trouble for that time in their lives (18-24), when they are most likely to act out revolutionary fantasies. The military is really a large prison system. While the troops are trained to use weapons, they get little ammunition for training, and the weapons are locked up most of the time. Young North Koreans increasingly know how poor they are, and in greater and greater detail. The soldiers born during the great famine of the 1990s are well-aware that they are physically much smaller than their South Korean counterparts. They also know that the average South Korean lives ten years longer and lives a much more pleasant life. All the more reason to limit the time North Korean troops can handle their weapons, especially when they have ammunition (which is actually very infrequently.)

By 2017 North Korean army officers were ordered to encourage their troops to steal food during the harvest and that failure to do so could result in punishment and would definitely result in hunger. Naturally this has caused more popular anger towards the military. This is nothing new. In 2016 hungry troops grew bolder because the government made it clear they would not punish soldiers unless people are killed or badly injured during these incidents. Police are often called to catch soldiers who have robbed someone. At first this was usually troops breaking into a house seeking food and valuables. The soldiers that are caught are often arrested but must be taken back to their base where the military takes over. The soldiers are “punished” with some verbal abuse for getting caught and that is all. The government was desperate because earlier efforts to address the problem had failed. In 2015 there was a new program to expand food production by the military. Troops were allowed to raise pigs as well as the usual vegetable and grain crops. Meat has been in particularly short supply for the troops in the past few years and hungry troops often steal small livestock (chickens, ducks and pigs), kill them on the spot and carry them off to be cooked and eaten before returning to base. As more reports came in it became apparent that most military units didn’t have enough to eat, either because the food was not to be had or, as is more often the case, corruption (someone in a position of power stole it.) This led to more soldiers stealing food from civilians or selling military clothing and equipment on the black market so they could buy food. Soldiers have opportunities to steal food and sell stolen goods when they are off their base doing construction or farm work. This is how troops spend a lot of their time and they receive no extra pay or food even when the outside work requires heavy (and calorie consuming) labor. All this is illegal, but commanders were not eager to punish hungry soldiers. For commanders their troops have become profitable slaves who can be rented out with the commanders getting part of the payment. Now the government insists that disobedient slaves be executed.

Visible Signs Of Decline

Declining discipline in the police is more evident in many obvious ways. For example a growing number of North Korean women are operating openly as prostitutes (usually near border areas where there are more foreigners). These women get $20 or more per customer but get to keep less than 20 percent of that because the rest goes to bribes (for police) and “fees” to various middlemen (or women) who supervise it all. Thus it is not surprising that these young (from late teens to 30s) women will also offer to sell drugs (usually meth) to customers as well. Many of these prostitutes are married and some have children but no money to keep the kids fed and healthy.

With the growth of free markets and police getting jealous, greedy and corrupted by demanding and getting bribes, there has also developed criminal gangs. These groups often have connections (usually financial) with the security forces and of course the gangsters are all veterans. The gangs act as middlemen between donju (free market entrepreneurs) and the government but as a matter of law, the gangs do not exist. As a matter of fact the gangs are very real and one of the fastest growing sectors of the market economy.

China Chooses Sides

The latest North Korean nuclear and missile tests have caused Chinese public opinion towards North Korea to become even more hostile. According to opinion polls North Korea has, over the last few years, turned into a larger military threat to China than the U.S. or anyone else. To deal with this China has increased the number of troops and border police stationed near the North Korean border and conducted more military exercises in the area. This also addresses another Chinese fear (that gets less publicity in China) that a government collapse in North Korea would send millions of desperate, and opportunistic, North Koreans into China. There is no way China or the Chinese living along the North Korean border would tolerate that. Meanwhile China is becoming more hostile to North Koreans no matter what their legal or economic status is. Part of that is because North Korea has become a very unpleasant place for Chinese to visit or do business in.

News of the bad treatment Chinese are suffering in North Korea gets around, even when the Chinese government tries to keep the worst examples out of the news. Chinese individuals and firms doing business in North Korea complain that the North Koreans have become even more unreliable when it comes to handling foreign investments from China. In the past China could impose some degree of discipline on North Korea for abuse of Chinese investors and investments. The North Koreans are increasingly ignoring this sort of pressure and as a result Chinese investors are backing away from current and planned investments. China could order state owned firms to do business in North Korea but does not because these firms are poorly run compared to the privately owned firms and would suffer even larger losses when dealing the increasingly treacherous and unreliable neighbor.

North Korea used to be a dependable place, at least for Chinese with the right connections in the Chinese government. While corruption in China has declined in the past few years it appears to have gotten worse in North Korea, to the point where long-term deals are avoided and transactions are made carefully, usually with payment before delivery. The smugglers and various other criminal gangs in China that do business with their North Korean counterparts have been forced to operate this way as well and for the same reasons. South Korea and Japan have already learned how unreliable North Korea can be when it comes to business deals and Russia has already adopted the wary approach to economic deals with North Korea.

China has visibly increased enforcement of economic sanctions on North Korea but this has not made North Korea any more willing to negotiate. The growing number of police and secret police night patrols in areas where North Korean smugglers long operated is hard to miss, as is the fact that when North Korean smugglers are encountered they get arrested and taken away. Even higher bribes (over $3,000 to make an arrest not happen) no longer work because the Chinese cops will still demand that amount of cash before they will turn the smugglers over to North Korean officials. China never came down so hard on North Korean smuggling before.

China is also cracking down on North Korean drug production and smuggling. This is a matter of self-defense for China and is effective because North Korea make the highest profits from methamphetamine (“meth”). But this drug requires a key ingredient (phenylacetic acid, in the form of white crystals) to be smuggled in from China. Now the Chinese are cracking down on that as well as the meth coming into China. North Korea is seeking another, probably more expensive, supplier in Russia.

While Russia is still doing business with North Korea China and Russia are also cooperating with many of the new rules banning North Korean workers they long employed legally. This exported labor was outlawed by the latest round of sanctions. North Korea responded by quietly ordering overseas workers to stay where they are and work illegally (in deals arranged by their government minders). Yet in many instances the export ban on slave labor is being enforced by Russia and especially China and that is hurting North Korea economically.

The North Koreans see this as yet another challenge that can be worked around. While it is true that there are still a lot of corrupt Chinese and Russians willing to do business with North Korea if the bribe is large enough, that is not working as well as it used to in China. This is because North Korea is very unpopular with Chinese in general and a growing number of senior Chinese officials in particular. Russians are less upset with North Korea and, while having fewer economic resources than China, are more receptive to shady deals. The problem is that North Korea has become very dependent on the much larger and still expanding Chinese economy. Russia simply cannot supply a lot of what North Korea needs. It is possible to still buy the forbidden goods in China and have them shipped to a fictitious customer in Russia who will quietly send it to North Korea. That does not always work and when it does it costs a lot more than getting the goods directly from China. North Korea has less cash for the extra expenses. The Chinese know this and are quite willing to slowly squeeze until North Korean leaders are all dead or more receptive to Chinese needs (no nukes next door and fewer desperate illegal migrants). Yet there is the growing risk that North Korea will get (or thinks it has) reliable nukes and keep threatening China. That is not the desired outcome but the Chinese have quietly reminded leaders of both Koreas (and their foreign allies) that in the past China has occupied much of Korea when the Koreans become troublesome.

Meanwhile China is not happy with South Korea either, fearing the growing military power of South Korea and the recent installation of a THAAD anti-missile battery despite vigorous Chinese diplomatic and economic efforts to prevent that. The diplomatic and economic pressure continues but the South Koreans are in no mood to back off as long as the North Korean threat remains. South Korea believes China could do more to eliminate the North Korean threat. While many, if not most, Chinese and Russians agree with that the Russian and Chinese governments still see economic opportunities in North Korea and are unwilling to do anything drastic.
[/quote]


----------



## a_majoor

Part 3


> September 14, 2017: In coincidental, nearly simultaneous, events North Korea fired a ballistic missile over Japan while South Korea fired two Hyunmoo 2 ballistic missiles. One of these failed while the other accurately hit the target area (at sea) 250 kilometers away. The North Korean missile travelled about 2,200 kilometers and landed in the Pacific. Japan said it tracked the missile and did not try to intercept because it was obvious the missile was following a trajectory that would take it far from Japan. The identity of the North Korean missile was not known.
> 
> South Korea has developed a longer (500 kilometer) version; Hyunmoo 2C. South Korea developed a 180 kilometer range ballistic missile (Hyunmoo 1) and a 300 kilometer one (Hyunmoo 2) in the 1980s. Both are about 13 meters (40 feet) long and weigh 4-5 tons. Both of these were based on the design of the U.S. Nike-Hercules anti-aircraft missile, which South Korea used for many years.
> 
> September 13, 2017: Google and YouTube have banned videos from North Korean media, apparently because it is a source of income for North Korea and now in violation of sanctions. This reduces open source access to North Korean TV although intelligence agencies will still be able to get these.
> 
> China has restricted access to Mount Paektu, apparently for safety reasons related to the recent North Korean nuclear test, which was conducted 110 kilometers away. Mount Paektu is a dormant volcano on the Chinese border. In fact, half the volcano is in China, where it is a popular tourist destination for South Koreans. That’s because Koreans and Manchus (as in Manchuria, the native people of northeast China) both consider Mt Paektu as a sacred place where their tribes originated thousands of years ago. In 2013 North Korea put some silos for their long range (2,000-3,000 kilometers) ballistic missiles up there because that part of North Korea is a triangle, surrounded on two sides by China. This makes it difficult for the Americans to launch air attacks without entering Chinese territory and makes it easier for North Korean anti-aircraft forces to defend against cruise missile. On the down side, Paektu is a dormant volcano that is active (lava flows and the like) about once a century. The last time it erupted (throwing large quantities of rocks and dust into the atmosphere) was in 1703 and an eruption in the late 10th century blew the top off the mountain and created the current 4.5 kilometers wide crater lake. Volcanologists consider Paektu capable of another major eruption but North Korea considers that less likely than an American air attack. So the silos stay, despite the risk of destruction by lava flows and earthquakes. Before all these silos were built North Korea planned to keep its long range ballistic missiles mobile and launch them from any number of launch sites (a flat field where the missile could be fueled and the guidance system programmed before launch.) Bad weather could complicate the use of mobile launchers (washing out bridges or blocking roads with snow). The quality of North Korean roads has also declined sharply (from lack of maintenance) since the late 1990s. Then there is the increased American surveillance (from satellites, U-2s and high-altitude UAVs) that makes mobile missiles more vulnerable to air or missile attack. Silos can also be attacked from the air, but in a war the more numerous and shorter range ballistic missiles to the south would also be subject to air attack as these missiles would be aimed at the South Korean capital. North Korea apparently believes that silos protected by a sacred volcano are a worthwhile investment to ensure that some of long-range missiles will get launched during a crises. China is more concerned about nuclear radiation coming from North Korea.
> 
> September 12, 2017: Chinese radiation monitors on the North Korean border recorded levels were up seven percent since the September 3rd test and have appeared to have peaked. This data was released because the population along the border know that they face some health risks if radiation levels increase too much for too long.
> 
> September 11, 2017: The UN approved new economic sanctions against North Korea and China said it would enforce them all and repeated that it had been enforcing sanctions since March. The new sanctions limit the export of refined petroleum product to two million barrels a year and ban North Korea from importing liquefied natural gas. This followed China condemning North Korea nuclear tests openly in the UN for the first time.
> 
> Meanwhile the United States continues to call on China and Russia to do more to halt the North Korean evasion of sanctions via corrupt officials and businesses in China and Russia. China in particular does not want too much international attention focused on that corruption, which has long been quite active along the North Korean border and still is. The United States is not being diplomatic in pointing this out but it is correct in showing how Chinese enforcement of sanctions does not really work unless China effectively curbs the Chinese corruption that enables North Korea to continue doing whatever it wants. For the North Korea the increased sanctions pressure merely increases costs (larger bribes are required in China and Russia).
> 
> September 10, 2017: Chinese banks have been warning its customers to stay away from bitcoin because of the threat from North Korean hackers, who are believed to be responsible for several recent multi-million dollar thefts from bitcoin exchanges. North Korea is believed to be targeting bitcoin and other Internet based cryptocurrencies even though North Korea has used bitcoin exchanges as a substitute for sanctions that ban it from accessing the international banking system. The Chinese government fears that North Korean hackers are now going after Chinese firms, something they are not supposed to do because China is still the main source of foreign trade. This sort of irrational behavior leads China to fear that North Korea would even be foolish to become a real military threat to China.
> 
> September 9, 2017: China orders all Chinese banks (including foreign banks licensed to operate in China) to not only stop opening accounts for North Koreans but also to close any such accounts immediately. This is a very harmful economic sanction and the North Koreans respond by ignoring the new rules any way they can.
> 
> September 8, 2017: North Korea has quietly freed a Russian yacht it had seized in mid-June. A North Korean warship seized the Russian yacht when both were 80 kilometers off the coast. The yacht and the vessel towing it to Vladivostok were definitely in international waters and the Russian ambassador demanded the release of the yacht and three man crew. North Korea was not responsive until now. This was similar to a May 2016 incident where North Korean warship seized a Russian sailing yacht some 160 kilometers from the east coast of North Korea (very much in international waters). The yacht and crew of five were taken to a North Korean port. The yacht was released two days later and continued on its way to its original destination (Vladivostok) for a sailboat race. In both cases North Korea would not say why they took the yacht and then released it.
> 
> September 7, 2017: South Korea has completed deploying an entire THAAD battery to a site some 300 kilometers south of the North Korean border. The United States will share radar data generated by the high-powered radar installed as part of a THAAD anti-missile battery that began arriving in early 2017. The THAAD battery is operated by American personnel and costs $3.5 million a year to operate. The battery consists of six truck-mounted missile launchers (eight missiles per launcher), a fire control and communications unit and an AN/TPY-2 radar. Villagers living near the site of the THAAD base oppose the presence of the anti-missile battery because it will be a target for North Korean (or even Chinese) attack. Locals also fear (without any evidence) that the powerful THAAD radar will cause health problems.
> 
> September 6, 2017: A recent online opinion survey in China showed that 66 percent believed North Korea was a larger military threat to China than the United States. Only 10 percent felt the Americans were a larger threat and 15 percent believed the U.S. was no threat at all. This is consistent with earlier surveys only the degree of hostility towards North Korea keeps increasing. Chinese see North Korea has a poorly managed nation that is ungrateful towards China and unpredictable.
> 
> September 4, 2017: North Korean living near the site of the recent underground nuclear weapons test are demanding compensation for the damage done to their home by the earthquake (estimated to be 5.6 on the Richter scale) the test produced. Across the Yalu River some Chinese buildings also suffered damage from the quake and several aftershocks.
> 
> South Korea announced that its policy towards North Korea will now on “punishment” rather than negotiation.
> 
> September 3, 2017: North Korea carried out its sixth nuclear test. This one appeared to be the largest one yet indicating a yield of 100-200 tons and described as a hydrogen bomb. The first nuclear test was in 2006 (less than one kiloton) but the first one that was truly successful occurred in 2013 (6 kilotons) and despite the fact that the test was not a complete success, the nuclear bomb program continued with two tests in 2016. In late 2015 Kim Jong Un claimed that North Korea had developed a hydrogen (fusion) bomb. Foreign experts openly expressed skepticism given that North Korea didn’t really have a reliable fission type nuclear bomb yet. You need an efficient fission bomb to trigger the fusion reaction that makes the “H-Bomb” so much more destructive than a fission bomb of the same weight and size. Nuclear test number four in January 2016 was described by North Korea as a fusion (H-bomb) test when it clearly was not, or not a successful one. That would be in contrast to the 2013 test which appeared to be seven kilotons and a complete detonation. The second test was a two kiloton weapon in 2009. Western intelligence believed that the original North Korean nuclear weapon design was flawed, as the first two tests were only a fraction of what they should have been. The first one was less than a kiloton and called in the trade, a "fizzle." The second test was less of a fizzle and apparently a modified version of the original design. Thus North Korea needed more tests to perfect their bomb design and was still years away from a useful nuclear weapon even though the second bomb appeared to be more effective. The third test in 2013 was considered overdue and that may have been because more time was spent designing and building a smaller device that could fit into a missile warhead. The second 2016 test is still something of a mystery. U.S. intelligence agencies have collected air samples (as have most other neighboring countries) from the test which can tell much about the design of the bomb. The January 2016 nuke appeared to be the same as the 2013 one. The second 2016 test in September appeared to be a better design and was about ten kilotons. North Korea insisted this was a fusion bomb. Air samples are still being collected on the test today but it will take weeks to analyze the samples and come to some useful conclusion. The sheer size of the most recent test indicated either a fusion bomb or an enhanced fission bomb. But for a yield of over 100 tons a fusion bomb is more likely. Such designs have been around and in use since the late 1940s. After the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991 a lot of Russian nuclear weapons designers and technicians were out of a job and the pensions of the retired ones were suddenly worth a lot less. The security for nuclear weapons designs, especially much older ones, became a lot more lax. There were plenty of opportunities to obtain previously unavailable tech.
> 
> August 29, 2017: North Korea fired a Hwasong-12 ballistic missile over Japan. This was the 18th North Korean ballistic missile test of 2017 and this one appeared to break into pieces before it fell into the ocean after travelling 2,700 kilometers from North Korea. This was the second successful test of the Hwasong-12.
> 
> August 28, 2017: South Korea announced its largest increase (6.9 percent for 2018) in its defense budget since 2009. This is a direct result of the increasing threat from North Korea. Next year South Korea will spend $38 billion, which is more than a third larger than the annual GDP of North Korea (which spends about a third of GDP on defense compared to less than three percent in South Korea). South Korea is in the top ten of national economies, something which annoys North Korea but is admired by the other neighbors (including China). Meanwhile Japan is also increasing its defense spending by 2.5 percent in 2018 (to $48 billion). Japan, like China and the U.S., are among the top five economies on the planet. Japan, because of the post-World War II constitution the United States insisted on (and Japan did not much object to) has been largely demilitarized considering the size of its economy. That is changing and the U.S. has dropped nearly all restrictions on what weapons it will export to South Korea and Japan and is ignoring treaties it has with both nations that restrict what types of advanced weapons (like ballistic missiles and nukes) they can develop. The Americans would still prefer that South Korea and Japan not build nukes (which both these nations could easily and quickly do). China and Russia would also prefer that Japan and South Korea remain non-nuclear weapon nations. But if North Korean military ambitions and threats (especially against South Korea and Japan) are not curbed popular opinion in South Korea and Japan is becoming more comfortable with the having their own nukes.
> 
> August 25, 2017: China banned North Korea from establishing any new businesses in China or expanding existing ones. Russia has done the same, but the Chinese are a much larger market and apparently intent on following through. Meanwhile the August 15 order for Chinese firms to halt imports of minerals and seafood cost some Chinese firms with physical operations (trucks, mines) and warehouses in North Korea to suffer losses because they were given only 24 hours to get this stuff back to China and that was not enough time. This was especially true when many North Korean officials demanded special payments before these goods could be moved.
> 
> August 24, 2017: A Russian Tu-95 bomber flew south from a base north of Korea until it got close enough to South Korea to cause South Korean F-16s to come up and investigate. Russia said it was a scheduled training flight.


----------



## larry Strong

http://nationalpost.com/opinion/lawrence-solomon-why-israel-might-take-out-north-koreas-nukes

*Lawrence Solomon: Why Israel might take out North Korea's nukes*





> North Korea’s rhetoric, like its promise earlier this year to unleash a “merciless, thousand-fold punishment” on its enemy, is familiar to us. But the target of the invective may surprise some. That particular threat was levied against Israel, and understandably so. Kim Jong-Un has reason to fear and loathe Israel.
> 
> The United States, South Korea and Japan—the three Pacific countries the Western press focuses on—haven’t been willing to kill North Koreans. Israel has. The U.S., South Korea and Japan haven’t blown up North Korean facilities. Israel has, many believe, and for good measure it also exercises control over North Korean shipping. Kim knows that Israel acts militarily and covertly to thwart his plans at home and abroad and that Israel is far likelier to take pre-emptive actions than his appeaser-neighbours. Unlike Trump, who issues loud threats of his own but is restrained in action, Israel acts and remains silent.
> 
> One of the highest profile, if initially unpublicized, military attacks in the undeclared war between North Korea and Israel occurred a decade ago, when Israeli jets destroyed a nuclear reactor that the North Koreans were building in Syria, and with it 10 North Korean officials. Three years earlier, shortly after a Mossad agent surreptitiously entered North Korea using a stolen Canadian passport, a massive explosion in a North Korean freight train carrying nuclear material killed at least a dozen Syrian nuclear scientists, and many more North Koreans. Israeli intelligence, which is thought to have played a role in the attack, reported that there was so much radioactive material onboard that the scientists were flown back to Syria in lead caskets.
> 
> Kim Jong Un has reason to fear and loathe Israel
> 
> Israel, sometimes in co-operation with the U.S., is also believed to have intercepted shipments from North Korea to Middle Eastern nations involving technology for missiles, conventional arms and chemical weapons as well as nuclear weaponry. In 2017 alone, according to a UN report leaked last month to Reuters, two North Korean arms shipments bound for the Syrian agency responsible for chemical weapons were intercepted by two unnamed governments.
> 
> North Korea’s hatred of Israel is ideological, dating back to the West vs. Communist Cold War era. It is the only non-Muslim country to have never recognized the state of Israel and the only one to have taken Israel on militarily. During the 1973 Yom Kippur War, the Israeli air force’s first and last dogfights in the skies over Egypt involved North Korean pilots flying Soviet MIG fighters. North Korea has trained and armed the Palestine Liberation Organization, Hamas and Hezbollah. One North Korean specialty—tunnel technology—is valued by Iran, which needs to protect its nuclear facilities against attack, and by Hamas and Hezbollah, who use it to infiltrate Israel. Iranian scientists have been special guests at North Korean nuclear bomb tests.
> 
> 
> Israel has more than North Korea’s ideology to worry about, however. North Korea’s chief source of revenue is arms and its chief customer is Iran. It was Iran that financed the Syrian nuclear reactor—price tag estimated at U.S.$1 billion to $2 billion—and it is Iran that has been importing North Korean missile technology as well as nuclear technology. Now that North Korea has miniaturized nuclear bombs, it is able to sell Iran ready-made bombs as well.
> 
> Iran has missile technology and lacks only the nuclear warhead
> 
> Iran has missile technology and lacks only the nuclear warhead. Now it has in North Korea a willing seller, one that will be in increasing need of funds if the economic sanctions imposed by the UN take hold. Israel thus faces a nightmare scenario in which the U.S. refrains from disarming North Korea, leaving North Korea free to ship unlimited numbers of nuclear bombs to Iran, whose mullahs are bent on destroying the state of Israel.
> 
> North Korea poses a major threat to the U.S. but not an existential threat, and if U.S. intelligence agencies are correct, not an imminent one. North Korea, in league with Iran, poses an existential threat to Israel—with its tiny land mass, Israel could not withstand a successful nuclear attack.
> 
> Israel has a history of taking pre-emptive action against mortal threats, even when opposed by the U.S. and world opinion. It will do so again if it must. If it does take out North Korea’s nuclear capability, especially if Israel is perceived to have acted alone, North Korea would have no reason to retaliate against the U.S., South Korea or Japan. A tragic carnage in the Korean peninsula would be averted.



Thoughts?


Cheers
Larry


----------



## MilEME09

While it makes sense, how in gods name would they pull it off? launch a F-35 strike off a container ship? wait...... Israel could do something like that. Problem is North Korea would then blame the US and it would go out of control from there.


----------



## Journeyman

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> From POTUS45's speech @ the U.N. today...


I think that this pic is worth the thousand words:  White House Chief of Staff, General John Kelly at the UN.


----------



## jollyjacktar

Not to mention the look on Mrs. Trump's face.  She looks as if she's having a hard time believing what she's hearing.  Career diplomats in the US Corps must be just cringing and howling in torment like doomed souls from Dante's inferno whenever the boss opens up his mouth.   ;D  Poor bastards.


----------



## Rifleman62

Kelly just read the draft of Trudeau's speech.  ;D


----------



## tomahawk6

The US has the means to take out the North's electrical grid in part or toto. Meaning take out the power to their missile launch area for example.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qo2mNFF6uGw


----------



## The Bread Guy

The latest from POTUS45:  text of latest executive order here, letter to Congress & President of Senate here, White House highlights package below (source) ...


> *Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Increases Pressure to Cut off Funding for North Korea*
> The White House, Office of the Press Secretary, September 21, 2017
> 
> *STRONG FINANCIAL SANCTIONS: President Trump today issued a new Executive Order (E.O.) imposing additional sanctions with respect to North Korea.*
> 
> The provocative, destabilizing, and repressive actions and policies of the Government of North Korea constitute a continuing threat to the national security, foreign policy, and, economy of the United States and a disturbance of the international relations of the United States.
> The United States is committed to targeting all means used by North Korea to earn, access, and transfer funds that North Korea uses to further its WMD programs.
> 
> We must maximize pressure on North Korea to demonstrate to its leadership that the best and only path is to return to denuclearization.
> 
> The E.O. also authorizes the Secretary of the Treasury, in consultation with the Secretary of State, to impose sanctions on persons involved in:
> 
> Industries: The construction, energy, financial services, fishing, information technology, manufacturing, medical, mining, textiles, or transportation industries in North Korea;
> Ports: Ownership, control, or operation of any port in North Korea, including any seaport, airport, or land port of entry;
> Imports/Exports: at least one significant importation from or exportation to North Korea of any goods, services, or technology.
> 
> *TARGETING TRADE AND FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS: These new authorities target individuals and entities that engage in trade with North Korea as well as the financial institutions that facilitate this trade.*
> 
> Trade: The E.O. directly targets North Korea’s shipping and trade networks and issues a 180-day ban on vessels and aircraft that have visited North Korea from visiting the United States. This ban also targets vessels that have engaged in a ship-to-ship transfer with a vessel that has visited North Korea within 180 days. North Korea is dependent on its shipping networks to facilitate international trade.
> 
> Financial Institutions: The E.O. provides the authority to impose sanctions on any foreign financial institution that knowingly conducts or facilitates any significant transaction on behalf of certain designated individuals and entities, or any significant transaction in connection with trade with North Korea, on or after the date of the E.O.
> 
> Under this new authority, the sanctions measures can be either restrictions on correspondent or payable-through accounts or blocking sanctions.
> The E.O. also provides the Secretary of the Treasury additional authority to block any funds originating from, destined for, or passing through accounts linked to North Korea that come within the United States or possession of a U.S. person.
> 
> Foreign financial institutions must choose between doing business with the United States or facilitating trade with North Korea or its designated supporters.


----------



## tomahawk6

Financial pressure works unless the North has an alternate revenue source - like Iran. Obama did give them $150b in cash.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Rocket Man speaks (screen capture of PRK statement via Ministry of Foreign Affairs page also attached) ...


> *Statement of Chairman of State Affairs Commission of DPRK*
> Posted on: 2017-09-22
> 
> Respected Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un, chairman of the State Affairs Commission of the DPRK, released a statement on Thursday.
> 
> The full text of the statement reads:
> 
> The speech made by the U.S. president in his maiden address on the UN arena in the prevailing serious circumstances, in which the situation on the Korean peninsula has been rendered tense as never before and is inching closer to a touch-and-go state, is arousing worldwide concern.
> 
> Shaping the general idea of what he would say, I expected he would make stereo-typed, prepared remarks a little different from what he used to utter in his office on the spur of the moment as he had to speak on the world’s biggest official diplomatic stage.
> 
> But, far from making remarks of any persuasive power that can be viewed to be helpful to defusing tension, he made unprecedented rude nonsense one has never heard from any of his predecessors.
> 
> A frightened dog barks louder.
> 
> I’d like to advise Trump to exercise prudence in selecting words and to be considerate of whom he speaks to when making a speech in front of the world.
> 
> The mentally deranged behavior of the U.S. president openly expressing on the UN arena the unethical will to “totally destroy” a sovereign state, beyond the boundary of threats of regime change or overturn of social system, makes even those with normal thinking faculty lose discretion and composure.
> 
> His remarks remind me of such words as “political layman” and “political heretic” which were in vogue in reference to Trump during his presidential election campaign.
> 
> After taking office Trump has rendered the world restless through threats and blackmail against all countries in the world. He is unfit to hold the prerogative of supreme command of a country, and he is surely a rogue and a gangster fond of playing with fire, rather than a politician.
> 
> His remarks which described the U.S. option through straightforward expression of his will have convinced me, rather than frightening or stopping me, that the path I chose is correct and that it is the one I have to follow to the last.
> 
> Now that Trump has denied the existence of and insulted me and my country in front of the eyes of the world and made the most ferocious declaration of a war in history that he would destroy the DPRK, we will consider with seriousness exercising of a corresponding, highest level of hard-line countermeasure in history.
> 
> Action is the best option in treating the dotard who, hard of hearing, is uttering only what he wants to say.
> 
> As a man representing the DPRK and on behalf of the dignity and honor of my state and people and on my own, I will make the man holding the prerogative of the supreme command in the U.S. pay dearly for his speech calling for totally destroying the DPRK.
> 
> This is not a rhetorical expression loved by Trump.
> 
> I am now thinking hard about what response he could have expected when he allowed such eccentric words to trip off his tongue.
> 
> Whatever Trump might have expected, he will face results beyond his expectation.
> 
> I will surely and definitely tame the mentally deranged U.S. dotard with fire.


----------



## The Bread Guy

I guess we'll have to see ...
_*"China says North Korean quake 'suspected explosion', South Korea says likely a natural quake"*_


----------



## Old Sweat

According to this story from CTV News, reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act, Canada would be willing to help broker a settlement between NK and the USA. Are visions of a Nobel Peace Prize circulating in Ottawa?

Canada willing to broker peace between U.S. and North Korea: McCallum
http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/canada-willing-to-broker-peace-between-u-s-and-north-korea-mccallum-1.3602727

CTV QP: 'Canada has a role': McCallum on tensions

Canada's Ambassador to China, John McCallum says Canada has spoken to both countries and stands ready should it be useful to broker a peace.
CTV National News: Rockets ‘inevitable?'
Mercedes Stephenson reports on the escalating tension between U.S. President Trump and North Korea, which says rockets are now 'inevitable.'
CTV News Channel: N. Korea responds to Trump

The North Korean foreign minister responded to Trump's UN address, saying his country is just trying to defend its sovereignty.	
Daniel Otis, CTVNews.ca Writer
@dsotis

Published Sunday, September 24, 2017 11:00AM EDT 
Last Updated Sunday, September 24, 2017 1:27PM EDT
Canada’s ambassador to China, John McCallum, says that Beijing is angry with North Korea, but Canada is willing to “help to broker a peace” on the Korean Peninsula.
“I think China, to use an undiplomatic word, is getting more and more pissed off with North Korea,” McCallum, who took over Canada’s diplomatic post in the country after nearly two decades in Parliament, told CTV’s Question Period. “They seem to be goading their only friend, so China is doing more to implement the sanctions than it had before.”
With multiple nuclear and missile tests this year, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has increasingly tested the resolve of the international community. That has led to several United Nations-backed sanctions packages as well as an escalating war of words between the young autocrat and U.S. President Donald Trump.
But China, McCallum said, has no interest in seeing a regime change in North Korea -- something that could potentially bring hordes of North Korean refugees to its borders. North Korea, he added, will also never willingly give up its growing nuclear arsenal.
“I'm not a fan of Vladimir Putin,” McCallum said, “but I think he got it right when he said that North Korea would rather eat grass than lose its nuclear weapons. I think they see this as existential to them.”
On their own, sanctions will also likely fail to defuse tensions on the Korean Peninsula, McCallum said. He firmly believes that there needs to be a diplomatic solution.
“I think you have to get the parties to the table,” he said. “But the challenge is to decide what would be on the menu at the table and whether there's any menu that would be remotely feasible for both the United States and North Korea."
That, he added, is where Canada could potentially play a role as “an honest broker.”
“Canada stands ready should it be useful for us to help to broker a peace,” he said. "If there was anything we can do, either to help to set what would be on the table, or to persuade either of the two parties to come to the table, or to be a broker if negotiations begin, I am sure that we would be happy to do that."
While Canada continues to engage China and the United States on the issue of North Korea’s nuclear ambitions, no such formal offer to mediate has been made.
"I don’t think there’s been a crisis of this magnitude facing the world perhaps since the Cuba crisis, or certainly for a long, long time,” McCallum added. “There is an urgency to try to come to some solution to this, but so far I think that solution is eluding the whole world."

- mod edit to add link -


----------



## Colin Parkinson

I find the gnashing of teeth over Trumps speech and approach interesting. People seem to be unaware that the “reasonable approach” is what has led us to this current state of affairs. The latest article I say said that Trump has no considered the safety of the SK and Japanese citizens who are unprepared for any retaliation, but then fails to point out that those governments have been slow to do much of anything constructive on that point for the last decade. Sort of like standing on a rail track and seeing a train coming in the distance, but believing it won’t hit you, because somebody else might build a siding for it in the meantime.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Meanwhile ...


> North Korea's foreign minister has accused US President Donald Trump of declaring war on his country.
> 
> *Ri Yong-ho told reporters in New York that North Korea reserved the right to shoot down US bombers.*
> 
> This applied even when they were not in North Korean airspace, the minister added. The world "should clearly remember" it was the US that first declared war, Mr Ri said ...


Yeah, that sounds like a _really_ healthy COA for North Korea, Mr. Foreign Minister ... op:


----------



## Rifleman62

Colin P said:
			
		

> I find the gnashing of teeth over Trumps speech and approach interesting. People seem to be unaware that the “reasonable approach” is what has led us to this current state of affairs. The latest article I say said that Trump has no considered the safety of the SK and Japanese citizens who are unprepared for any retaliation, but then fails to point out that those governments have been slow to do much of anything constructive on that point for the last decade. Sort of like standing on a rail track and seeing a train coming in the distance, but believing it won’t hit you, because somebody else might build a siding for it in the meantime.



Including Canada and it's policy of not joining the US anti missile defense program.


----------



## tomahawk6

Someone should inform the PM that the US is still technically at war with the North. There was no peace treaty just an armistice. If he could get the North to agree to conclude the state of war that would be wonderful. But after 64 years it doesnt look like the North wants to end the war. Perhaps they need an enemy to stay in power ?

https://www.army.mil/article/190943/commemorating_korean_war_armistice_day


----------



## The Bread Guy

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> ...  Perhaps they need an enemy to stay in power ?


At least in part ... :nod:


----------



## MilEME09

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> At least in part ... :nod:




Worked for Argentina... till they actually invaded the falklands, North Korea knows it would be national suicide if they launched an attack, I don't think any of their provocations that happened back in the late 00's would fly now, pretty sure if one round crosses the DMZ, hell will come down on the north.


----------



## YZT580

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> Someone should inform the PM that the US is still technically at war with the North. There was no peace treaty just an armistice. If he could get the North to agree to conclude the state of war that would be wonderful. But after 64 years it doesnt look like the North wants to end the war. Perhaps they need an enemy to stay in power ?
> 
> https://www.army.mil/article/190943/commemorating_korean_war_armistice_day


I believe that we too are still technically at war with NK so none of these discussions should forget that.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Apparently the NK has pulled out of the Armistice: _"North Korea has announced that it will no longer abide by the armistice at least 6 times, in the years 1994, 1996, 2003, 2006, 2009, and 2013"_  [lol:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_Armistice_Agreement


----------



## Rifleman62

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2017/09/26/otto-warmbiers-parents-open-up-about-sons-torture-by-north-korea-are-terrorists.html

*Otto Warmbier's parents open up about son's torture by North Korea: 'They are terrorists'* (Video at link)

Extract: 

“So what we pictured, because we’re optimists, is that Otto would be asleep and maybe in a medically induced coma and then when our doctors here would work with him and he’d get the best care and love that he would come out of it," she said during the first interview the couple had given since their 22-year-old son died.

The reality of Otto’s injuries were much worse than the Warmbiers could ever imagine.

“We walked over to the plane, the engines are still humming, they had just landed…when we got halfway up the steps we heard this howling, involuntary, inhuman sound,” Fred said. “We weren’t really certain what it was.”

When they spotted their son, they found Otto on a stretcher, jerking violently, producing the terrifying cries.

“Otto had a shaved head, he had a feeding tube coming out of his nose, he was staring blankly into space, jerking violently,” Fred said. “He was blind. He was deaf. As we looked at him and tried to comfort him it looked like someone had taken a pair of pliers and rearranged his bottom teeth.”

He added: “North Korea is not a victim, they are terrorists. They purposefully and intentionally injured Otto.


----------



## Retired AF Guy

MilEME09 said:
			
		

> Worked for Argentina... till they actually invaded the falklands, North Korea knows it would be national suicide if they launched an attack, I don't think any of their provocations that happened back in the late 00's would fly now, pretty sure if one round crosses the DMZ, hell will come down on the north.



NK has being getting away with provocations (including mass murder) for so long, they may believe they have nothing to fear about any retaliations.


----------



## tomahawk6

North Korean freighter caught with crates of 30,000 RPG's by Egyptian customs.The buyer was Egypt.  :

https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/world/national-security/a-north-korean-ship-was-seized-off-egypt-with-a-huge-cache-of-weapons-destined-for-a-surprising-buyer/2017/10/01/d9a4e06e-a46d-11e7-b14f-f41773cd5a14_story.html

Last August, a secret message was passed from Washington to Cairo warning about a mysterious vessel steaming toward the Suez Canal. The bulk freighter named Jie Shun was flying Cambodian colors but had sailed from North Korea, the warning said, with a North Korean crew and an unknown cargo shrouded by heavy tarps.

Armed with this tip, customs agents were waiting when the ship entered Egyptian waters. They swarmed the vessel and discovered, concealed under bins of iron ore, a cache of more than 30,000 rocket-propelled grenades. It was, as a United Nations report later concluded, the "largest seizure of ammunition in the history of sanctions against the Democratic People's Republic of Korea."


----------



## a_majoor

One possible end game is China taking over the DPRK:

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-north-korea-military-intervention-by-bill-emmott-2017-09



> *A ‘China First’ Strategy for North Korea*
> Sep 4, 2017 BILL EMMOTT
> Donald Trump has chided China for failing to take responsibility for its dangerous neighbor. But America's president should be careful what he tweets for: If China launched a military invasion of North Korea, it could work – and China would gain greater strategic parity with the US in East Asia.
> 
> LONDON – Most pundits agree that the least bad way to deal with North Korea’s nuclear saber rattling is a continued combination of tight containment and aggressive diplomacy. Fewer, however, have recognized that the least bad military option – the one implied by US President Donald Trump’s insistence that China take responsibility for its dangerous neighbor – is a Chinese invasion, or regime change forced through China’s threat to launch one.
> 
> This outcome, which would sharply shift East Asia’s strategic balance in China’s favor, is not as unlikely as most people think. In fact, its very plausibility is one reason why it needs to be taken seriously, including by Chinese military planners. In Trumpian terms, this is a “China First” option that could help “Make China Great Again.”
> 
> Any military intervention, Chinese or otherwise, would carry huge risks. But before dwelling on them, consider what a successful Chinese intervention would achieve. For starters, it would put North Korea right where the country’s post-Korean War history suggests it belongs: under a Chinese nuclear umbrella, benefiting from a credible security guarantee.
> 
> Mao Zedong used to say that his country and North Korea were “as close as lips and teeth” – a fitting description, given Chinese troops’ role in averting an American victory in the Korean War. But while Japan and South Korea have remained close allies of the United States during the six decades since then, hosting US bases and sheltering under US nuclear protection, China and North Korea have drifted ever further apart.
> 
> As a result, China has little control over its neighbor and purported ally, and probably scant knowledge of what is going on there. It could, it is true, tighten the existing siege on North Korea by cutting trade further and blocking energy supplies. But this might achieve little beyond pushing Kim Jong-un’s cloistered regime to look for support from its other neighbor, Russia.
> 
> If, as is commonly assumed, North Korea wants some sort of credible security guarantee in exchange for curtailing its nuclear program, the only country capable of providing it is China. No American promise would remain credible beyond the term of the president who gave it, if even that long.
> 
> So if China were to combine threats of invasion with a promise of security and nuclear protection, in exchange for cooperation and possible regime change, its chances of winning over large parts of the Korean People’s Army would be high. Whereas a nuclear exchange with the US would mean devastation, submission to China would promise survival, and presumably a degree of continued autonomy. For all except those closest to Kim, the choice would not be a difficult one.
> 
> China’s strategic gains from a successful military intervention would include not only control of what happens on the Korean Peninsula, where it presumably would be able to establish military bases, but also regional gratitude for having prevented a catastrophic war.
> No other action holds as much potential to make Chinese leadership within Asia seem both credible, and desirable, especially if the alternative is a reckless, poorly planned US-led war. What China needs, above all, is legitimacy, and intervention in North Korea would provide it. Successful use of hard power would bring China, to borrow the distinction coined by Harvard’s Joseph S. Nye, huge reserves of soft power.
> 
> But now to the 64 billion renminbi question: Could it work? We can’t know the answer for sure, and any military intervention carries great risks. The Chinese armed forces are now well equipped, but lack comparable battlefield experience. Their inferior opponents have leaders who might be prepared to use nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction, if they did not simply accept Chinese terms and surrender.
> 
> What we can say with near certainty is that a Chinese land and sea invasion, rather than an American one, would stand a better chance of avoiding Kim’s likely response: an artillery attack on the South Korean capital, Seoul, which lies just a few dozen miles south of the demilitarized zone. Why would North Korea slaughter its southern brothers and sisters in retaliation for a Chinese invasion that came with a promise of continued security, if not autonomy?
> 
> Moreover, while the Kim regime’s nuclear restraint could hardly be taken for granted, China would be a less likely target than the US for North Korean missiles. Were a Chinese military option to be contemplated seriously, some intelligence and missile-defense collaboration with the US might be worth exploring. Given the risks, it would be hard for the US to refuse.
> 
> This scenario may well never happen. But it is so logical that the possibility of it should be taken seriously. It is, after all, China’s best opportunity to achieve greater strategic parity with the US in the region, while removing a source of instability that threatens them both.


----------



## a_majoor

The info OPS campaign agains the DPRK. How well it is working is a mater of debate, but the Americans have certainly changed things up from decades of talk and appeasement:

http://observer.com/2017/10/donald-trump-threats-corner-north-korea/



> *Trump’s North Korea Threat-Theater Is Working*
> By Austin Bay • 10/10/17 6:30am
> 
> The heated rhetorical exchanges between Washington and Pyongyang have once again fired public interest in Korean war scenarios and the Korean information war.
> 
> Obvious truth tends to die in Beltway media darkness, but The Washington Post finally noticed the intent and utility of the Trump administration’s orchestrated information warfare operation, something Observer readers know I began covering in March and emphasized in August and September while mainstream media dismissed Trump as incompetent.
> 
> It’s a fair bet that one recent “scenario” article was read with interest by North Korean intelligence analysts, senior military officers with access to global media, and Kim Jong “Rocket Man” Un.
> 
> On October 7, the Voice of America published what I’ll call a double-barreled article, meaning it combined a military-political intervention scenario and an indirect (or inadvertent) sampling of Trump’s information operation.
> 
> VOA’s first barrel featured a speculative North Korea scenario written by a former Economist editor Bill Emmott and published by Project Syndicate in early September.
> 
> VOA’s second barrel highlighted a comment President Donald Trump made on October 5 following a visit to the White House by top U.S. military leaders. Trump said the visit was “the calm before the storm.” When reporters asked the president to elaborate on “the storm,” he simply said, “You’ll find out.'”
> 
> But back to Barrel One. Emmott posited a Chinese military intervention in North Korea to convince the North Korean military to remove the Kim regime. Emmott wrote:
> 
> “Whereas a nuclear exchange with the U.S. would mean devastation, submission to China would promise survival, and presumably a degree of continued autonomy. For all except those closest to Kim, the choice would not be a difficult one.
> 
> China’s strategic gains from a successful military intervention would include not only control of what happens on the Korean Peninsula, where it presumably would be able to establish military bases, but also regional gratitude for having prevented a catastrophic war.”
> 
> But would Beijing’s gamble work? Emmott acknowledged the risks. Though China has superior military forces “…their inferior opponents have leaders who might be prepared to use nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction, if they did not simply accept Chinese terms and surrender.”
> 
> Emmott added this upside: A Chinese invasion in lieu of an American-led attack “would stand a better chance of avoiding Kim’s likely response: an artillery attack on the South Korean capital, Seoul, which lies just a few dozen miles south of the demilitarized zone.”
> 
> In June, StrategyPage.com published an analysis of China’s relationships with North Korea and South Korea and argued that a united Korea “is something China is willing to go to war over to prevent, or at least make some serious moves in that direction.” This scenario maintains the division of Korea.
> 
> On October 7 (after VOA’s article first appeared on the web), President Trump fired two tweets at North Korea.
> 
> Presidents and their administrations have been talking to North Korea for 25 years, agreements made and massive amounts of money paid……
> 
> — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 7, 2017
> 
> …hasn't worked, agreements violated before the ink was dry, makings fools of U.S. negotiators. Sorry, but only one thing will work!
> 
> — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 7, 2017
> 
> To put it colloquially, The Donald continues to mess with Rocket Man.
> 
> Several months ago, Trump decided to give North Korea a relentless dose of its own threat-theater bombast. Trump seeds his threat-theatrics with customized belittling designed to rattle an imperious autocrat (e.g., Crooked Hillary, Little Rocket Man). Trump is conducting an information warfare operation, and one Kim Jong Un and his regime have not confronted, especially one executed by an American president. Trump didn’t undermine Secretary of State Rex Tillerson when he tweeted that Tillerson was “wasting his time” negotiating with North Korea. That drama was “good cop, bad cop,” with the goal of rattling Kim. Nor does Trump undermine Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis. That noted, at times it must astonish (and perhaps please) Mattis that this is the first time in his professional life he’s played the good cop.
> 
> Moreover, Trump’s information warfare operation isn’t all verbal theater, good cop-bad cop kabuki and tweetkrieg. The U.S. and its allies back the verbal assaults and tweets with shows of powerful and credible military force.
> 
> Trump’s information operation appalls mainstream media, despite the Washington Post’s belated and singular epiphany. Media geniuses continue to miss its point. The information warfare operation sends the message “hey dummy, it’s different.” It forces the Kim regime to recognize the geo-strategic situation has changed in ways that the regime did not expect and cannot control. Strategic patience is really over, Rocket Man. That’s Trump’s message and the Kim regime and North Korean military are its critical audiences, not the sideshow of mainstream media.
> 
> Which brings us back to VOA’s double-barreled article. VOA is U.S. government-funded and overseen by an independent agency.
> 
> VOA is editorially independent but is tasked with presenting a “balanced” view of issues. As its Wikipedia page notes, VOA radio broadcasts influence foreign public opinion, and I assume that holds true for its website. I doubt anyone in the Trump administration told VOA to write the October 7 article. From an editorial point of view, its newsworthiness alone justifies publishing it. Nevertheless, when juxtaposed, the article’s two barrels frame a choice for North Korea: Chinese intervention and survival versus Madman Trump’s war of annihilation. I’ll wager there are North Korean intelligence analysts and senior military officers who will read it that way and read it as a message. Kim Jong Un’s information warfare advisers certainly will.
> 
> Why, Kim might conclude it’s time to purge intelligence analysts and kill a few more senior military officers. Would Beijing read that as a sign of instability? Stay tuned.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

No more Kimgeld


----------



## daftandbarmy

Thucydides said:
			
		

> The info OPS campaign agains the DPRK. How well it is working is a mater of debate, but the Americans have certainly changed things up from decades of talk and appeasement:
> 
> http://observer.com/2017/10/donald-trump-threats-corner-north-korea/



"There isn't a more profitable undertaking for any country than to declare war on the United States and to be defeated." Tulley Bascombe, The Mouse that Roared


----------



## a_majoor

Interviews with defectors from the DPRK: (Part 1)

http://nationalpost.com/news/world/from-the-preschooler-to-the-bean-trader-and-the-drug-dealer-life-in-north-korea-under-kim-jong-un



> *Washington Post*
> Anna Fifield
> November 18, 2017
> 4:26 PM EST
> Last Updated
> November 19, 2017
> 9:22 AM EST
> 
> “In North Korea, life only gets better if the state helps you. But these days, the state doesn’t help. We’re on our own.”
> 
> – The bride, now 23, from Hyesan. Escaped from North Korea in May 2017.
> 
> When Kim Jong Un became the leader of North Korea almost six years ago, many North Koreans thought that their lives were going to improve. He offered the hope of generational change in the world’s longest-running communist dynasty. After all, he was so young. A millennial. Someone with experience of the outside world.
> 
> But the “Great Successor,” as he is called by the regime, has turned out to be every bit as brutal as his father and grandfather before him. Even as he has allowed greater economic freedom, he has tried to seal the country off more than ever, stepping up security along the border with China and stepping up the punishments for those who dare to try to cross it. And at home, freedom of speech, and of thought, is still a mirage.
> 
> In six months of interviews in South Korea and Thailand, The Washington Post talked with more than 25 North Koreans from different walks of life who lived in Kim Jong Un’s North Korea and managed to escape from it. In barbecue restaurants, cramped apartments and hotel rooms, these refugees provided the fullest account to date of daily life inside North Korea and how it has changed, and how it hasn’t, since Kim took over from his father, Kim Jong Il, at the end of 2011. Many are from the northern parts of the country that border China – the part of North Korea where life is toughest, and where knowledge about the outside world just across the river is most widespread – and are from the relatively small segment of the population that is prepared to take the risks involved in trying to escape.
> 
> Some parts of their stories cannot be independently verified because of the secretive nature of the regime, and their names have been withheld to protect their family members still in North Korea. They were introduced to The Post by groups that help North Korean escapees, including No Chain for North Korea, Woorion and Liberty in North Korea.
> 
> But in talking about their personal experiences, including torture and the culture of surveillance, they recounted the hardships of daily life under Kim Jong Un’s regime. They paint a picture of a once-communist state that has all but broken down, its state-directed economy at a standstill. Today, North Koreans are making their own way, earning money in an entrepreneurial and often illegal fashion. There are only a few problems in North Korea these days that money can’t solve.
> 
> As life inside North Korea is changing, so too are people’s reasons for escaping.
> 
> Increasingly, North Koreans are not fleeing their totalitarian state because they are hungry, as they did during the 15 or so years following the outbreak of a devastating famine in the mid-1990s. Now, they are leaving because they are disillusioned.
> 
> Market activity is exploding, andwith that comes a flow of information, whether as chitchat from traders who cross into China or as soap operas loaded on USB sticks. And this leads many North Koreans to dream in a way they hadn’t before.
> 
> Some are leaving North Korea because they want their children to get a better education. Some are leaving because their dreams of success and riches in the North Korean system are being thwarted. And some are leaving because they want to be able to speak their minds.
> 
> A NEW KIM AT THE HELM
> 
> Korean Central News Agency – Dec. 19, 2011 – “Standing at the forefront of the Korean revolution is Kim Jong Un, great successor to the revolutionary cause of Juche [self-reliance ideology] and outstanding leader of our party, army and people.”
> 
> The meat delivery guy, now 23, from Undok. Escaped in 2014:
> 
> “Kim Jong Un came to power the same year I graduated from high school, and I had very high hopes for him. I heard that he’d studied abroad in Switzerland. I thought he was going to be very different from his father.”
> 
> The young mother, now 29, from Hoeryong. Escaped in 2014:
> 
> “I could see how young he was, and I hoped that maybe things were going to get better. We were given some rations through our neighborhood association – we even got meat and fish – at the time he took over.”
> 
> The preschooler, now 7, from Hoeryong. Escaped in 2014:
> 
> “I remember how fat he was. He had a very fat face like a pig.”
> – – –
> 
> As the regime started preparing for Kim’s succession, it put out a song that everyone in the country was made to learn, called “Footsteps.” The idea was that Kim was following in the footsteps of his father and would lead the country into a glorious future.
> 
> The money man, now 43, from Hyesan. Escaped in 2015:
> 
> “We heard the song ‘Footsteps’ and we were told to memorize it so [we] knew that he was going to be the leader after Kim Jong Il. We were told how great he was, that he could ride a horse when he was 5 years old and shoot a gun when he was 3. Of course we didn’t believe these things, but if you laughed or said anything, you’d be killed.”
> 
> The university student, now 37, from Sariwon. Escaped in 2013:
> 
> “I was in my second year at the university when this person was introduced to us as our new leader. I thought it was a joke. Among my closest friends, we were calling him a piece of s—. Everyone thinks this, but you can only say it to your closest friends or to your parents if you know that they agree.”
> 
> The drug dealer, now 46, from Hoeryong. Escaped in 2014:
> 
> “I created some kind of fantasy in my mind about Kim Jong Un. Because he was so young, I thought he was going to open North Korea’s doors, but after he took power and I lived three years under him, life became harder.”
> 
> MONEY TALKS
> 
> In theory, North Korea is a bastion of socialism, a country where the state provides everything, including housing, health care, education and jobs. In reality, the state economy barely operates anymore. People work in factories and fields, but there is little for them to do, and they are paid almost nothing. A vibrant private economy has sprung up out of necessity, one where people find ways to make money on their own, whether through selling homemade tofu or dealing drugs, through smuggling small DVD players with screens called “notels” over the border or extracting bribes.
> 
> The university student:
> 
> “North Korea technically has a centrally planned economy, but now people’s lives revolve around the market. No one expects the government to provide things anymore. Everyone has to find their own way to survive.”
> 
> The hairdresser, now 23, from Hyesan. Escaped in 2016:
> 
> “I had to drop out of teachers college when I was 19 because my father became ill so I needed to work. I started doing people’s hair at my house. All the women wanted perms. I charged 30 [Chinese] yuan for a regular perm or 50 yuan for a perm with better products. But it was still hard to make money. [Thirty yuan is about $4.50.]”
> 
> The farmer, now 46, from Hoeryong. Escaped in 2014.
> 
> “We lived in the city center, but we rented some land in the foothills of the mountains and grew corn there. During planting and harvest season, we would wake up at 4 a.m. and walk three hours to reach the farmland. We’d take a little break for lunch or a snack, then work until 8 p.m. before walking home again. Doing the weeding was the hardest because we had to get rid of them by hand. And we’d buy beans from the market and make tofu that we’d sell from our house. Our profit was less than 5,000 won [60 cents at the black market rate] a day. But because the bean price fluctuates, sometimes we were left with nothing at all.”
> – – –
> 
> North Koreans first learned how to be entrepreneurs during the famine, when they had to make money to survive. While men had to continue to show up for work in dormant factories, women would turn corn into noodles and keep a little for themselves but sell the rest so they could buy more corn for the following day. Homeless children would steal manhole covers to sell as scrap metal. Markets began to appear and took hold. North Koreans used to joke you could buy everything there except cats’ horns.
> 
> These days, you can probably buy cats’ horns, too.
> 
> The bean trader, now 23, from Hyesan. Escaped in 2014:
> 
> “I had an aunt in Pyongyang who sold beans in the market there. I would buy what she needed from various farmers and get it to her. I’d pay people to pack up the beans into sacks, pay porters to take them to the station, get them onto the train. You have to smooth the way with money. My uncle is in the military, so his position provided protection for my aunt’s business. Of course, my aunt was the main earner in the house. It’s the women who can really make money in North Korea.”
> – – –
> 
> Tens of thousands of North Koreans now work outside the country, in lumber yards and garment factories and on construction sites, in China, Russia and other countries, earning foreign currency. Generally, two-thirds of their pay goes to the regime, and they’re allowed to keep the rest.
> 
> The construction worker, now 40, from Pyongyang. Escaped in 2015:
> 
> “I wanted to earn money for my family and buy a house, so I paid $100 to bribe my way into an overseas construction job. I was sent to St. Petersburg. We lived at the construction site and would work from 8 a.m. to 8 p.m., or sometimes until midnight in the summer, then we’d go back to our dormitory to eat. We worked seven days a week, but we could finish early on Sundays – 7 p.m. – and that was nice. My whole purpose for being there was to make lots of money and go home proud of my achievement. I still remember the first time I got paid. It was 1,000 rubles. When I finished work at 10 p.m., I went to the store and saw that a bottle of beer was 27 rubles. I thought, wow I’m rich.”
> – – –
> 
> As the economy and the rules that govern it change, there are more and more gray areas that can be exploited. That means that illegal trade and activity have blossomed, too.
> 
> The drug dealer:
> 
> “I did so many things that I wasn’t supposed to do. I worked as a broker transferring money and connecting people in North Korea with people in South Korea through phone calls. I arranged reunions for them in China. I smuggled antiques out of North Korea and sold them in China. I sold ginseng and pheasants to China. And I dealt ice [methamphetamines]. Officially, I was a factory worker, but I bribed my way out of having to go to work. If you don’t operate this way in North Korea, you have nothing.”
> 
> The doctor, now 42, from Hyesan. Escaped in 2014:
> 
> “The salary for doctors was about 3,500 won a month. That was less than it cost to buy one kilogram of rice. So of course, being a doctor was not my main job. My main job was smuggling at night. I would send herbal medicine from North Korea into China, and with the money, I would import home appliances back into North Korea. Rice cookers, notels, LCD monitors, that kind of thing.”
> – – –
> 
> From the biggest cities to the smallest villages, there is now some kind of market building where people can sell their wares and keep their profits. Some are state-run, some are state-sanctioned, some are ad hoc. The markets have been retroactively legalized by the regime.
> 
> Money is now needed for nearly everything – even for the parts of communist life that the Kim regime crows about providing, like housing and schooling. Bribery and corruption have become endemic, undermining the regime by loosening controls and creating incentives that may not always be in line with Kim’s priorities.
> 
> The farmer:
> 
> “Technically, you don’t have to pay to go to school, but the teachers tell you that you have to submit a certain amount of beans or rabbit skins that can be sold. If you don’t submit, you get told off continuously, and that’s why students stop going to school. The kids are hurt just because the parents can’t afford it.”
> 
> The young mother:
> 
> “I used to pay the teachers at my daughter’s school so they would look after her better than others. I would give them 120,000 won at a time – that’s enough to buy 25 kilograms of rice – twice a year. If you don’t pay the teachers, they won’t make any effort.”
> 
> The fisherman, now 45, from Ryongchon. Escaped in 2017:
> 
> “I lived through all three Kims, but our life was not getting any better for any of us. We all have to pay for Kim Jong Un’s projects, like Ryomyong Street [a residential development in Pyongyang]. We had to contribute 15,000 North Korean won per household [more than four months’ salary] to the government for that street.”
> 
> The drug dealer:
> 
> “My main business was selling ice. I think that 70 or 80 percent of the adults in Hoeryong city were using ice. My customers were just ordinary people. Police officers, security agents, party members, teachers, doctors. Ice made a really good gift for birthday parties or for high school graduation presents. It makes you feel good and helps you release stress, and it really helps relations between men and women. My 76-year-old mother was using it because she had low blood pressure, and it worked well. Lots of police officers and security agents would come to my house to smoke, and of course I didn’t charge them – they were my protection. They would come by during their lunch break, stop by my house. The head of the secret police in my area was almost living at my house.”
> – – –


----------



## a_majoor

Part 2:



> The ability to make money, sometimes lots of money, through means both legal and illegal has led to visible inequality in a country that has long touted itself as an egalitarian socialist paradise. This could be a potential source of disruption. Bean traders and drug dealers and everyone in between have the prospect of making a decent living. Those working only in official jobs, whether they be on a state-owned ostrich farm or in a government ministry in Pyongyang, earn only a few dollars a month and get little in the way of rations to supplement their meager salaries.
> 
> The rich kid, now 20, from Chongjin. Escaped in 2014:
> 
> “Skating rinks opened in 2013, and rollerblading became a really big thing. Rich kids had their own rollerblades. We’d carry them slung over our shoulders as we walked to the rink – it was a status symbol, a sign that you have money. I bought my rollerblades at the market. They were pink, and it cost 200 Chinese yuan. That’s the same price as 30 kilograms of rice. It’s unthinkable for poor kids.”
> 
> The construction worker:
> 
> “There were long periods where we didn’t get paid. I once went for six months without getting any salary at all. We lived in a shipping container at the construction site. We were given rice and cabbage and one egg per person per day, and we had an electric coil in our container that we could cook on. We needed some protein because our work was so hard, so we started buying pigskin at the market because it was cheap. Washing was like a special occasion. But if you went to the bathhouse, you would miss out on work. Once I didn’t bathe for two months. We didn’t think anything of it. It was just the way we lived.”
> 
> The rich kid:
> 
> “Cellphones are a big thing. To be able to afford a smartphone, you had to come from a rich family. Of course, there were some poor kids at my school, but I didn’t hang out with them. I had an Arirang smartphone that cost $400. When boys came up to talk to me, I’d check out their phone. If they had one of those old-style phones with buttons, I wasn’t interested.”
> – – –
> 
> The markets are the distribution point not just for goods, but also for information. Chatter, rumors, illicit foreign media.
> 
> The farmer:
> 
> “Women make their living in the market, and while they’re sitting there at the stalls, they talk. So the market is a great place to learn about the outside world.”
> 
> The phone connector, now 49, from Hoeryong. Escaped in 2013:
> 
> “I watched lots of [smuggled] movies and soap operas on USB sticks from the market. I would plug them into my TV. Vendors who are selling ordinary things like batteries or rice or whatever, they hide the USBs inside under the counter. When you go into the market you say to the vendors: Do you have anything delicious today? That’s the code. USBs are also good because they are so easy to hide, and you can just break them if you get caught.”
> 
> The fisherman:
> 
> “In the past, if you watched Chinese movies on USBs you were okay. You got put in a labor camp only if you were caught with South Korean or American movies. But now, under Kim Jong Un, you get sent to a labor camp if you’re caught watching Chinese movies, too. The police and the security services and government officials live better these days. The more people they catch, the more money they earn.”
> 
> The teenage prisoner, now 22, from Hyesan. Escaped in 2013:
> 
> “I loved the way that women were being cherished. North Korea is a very male-oriented society, men never bother about taking care of women. And I liked to look at their fancy cars and houses.”
> 
> The accordion player, now 25, from Hamhung. Escaped in 2015:
> 
> “My mom worked in the market selling home appliances, so she had a way to get DVDs. I watched Chinese, Indian and Russian movies, and lots of South Korean soap operas. I thought that if I got to South Korea, I could do anything I wanted.”
> – – –
> 
> It is impossible to overstate the pervasiveness of the personality cult surrounding the Kims in North Korea. Founding President Kim Il Sung, his son Kim Jong Il and his grandson, the current leader, Kim Jong Un form a kind of holy trinity in North Korea. There is no criticizing them or questioning the system – at least not without risking your freedom and the freedom of your entire family. Your life itself could be at stake.
> 
> The preschooler:
> 
> “I learned songs about the general and about the Kim family and how great Kim Il Sung was.”
> 
> The elementary schoolgirl, now 7, from Ryongchon. Escaped in 2017:
> 
> “We got gifts on Kim Jong Un’s birthday: candy and cookies and gum and puffed rice. I was so grateful to him for giving me all these sweets. We would stand up in class and say, ‘Thank you, General Kim Jong Un.’ “
> 
> The university student:
> 
> “We had ideological education for 90 minutes every day. There was revolutionary history, lessons about Kim Il Sung, Kim Jong Il, Kim Jong Un. Of course, they taught us about why we needed nuclear weapons, and they would tell us that we needed to make sacrifices in our daily lives so they could build these weapons and protect our country, keep the nation safe. I was so sick and tired of hearing about all this revolutionary history, I was so sick of calling everyone ‘comrade.’ I didn’t care about any of that stuff.”
> 
> The young mother:
> 
> “Everybody knew that Kim Jong Il and Kim Jong Un were both liars, that everything is their fault, but it’s impossible to voice any opposition because we are under such tight surveillance. If someone is drunk and says Kim Jong Un is a son of a bitch, you’ll never see them again.”
> 
> The doctor:
> 
> “It’s like a religion. From birth, you learn about the Kim family, learn that they are gods, that you must be absolutely obedient to the Kim family. The elites are treated nicely, and because of that they make sure that the system stays stable. But for everyone else, it’s a reign of terror. The Kim family uses terror to keep people scared, and that makes it impossible to stage any kind of social gathering, let alone an uprising.”
> 
> The construction worker:
> 
> “We had education sessions when we would go back to the main building and into a big room where there were portraits of the leaders. Everyone had to bow and buy bunches of flowers to lay in front of the portraits. There would be a speech by the boss, who was a party member. We would hear about how Kim Jong Un had done this and this and that [he] was working so hard for the party and for the nation and for the people. I believed it up until the Kim Jong Un era, but this exaggeration was just too much. It just didn’t make sense.”
> 
> The money man:
> 
> “Every month there was special instruction about Kim Jong Un. It came down from Pyongyang to the neighborhood associations. We were told that Kim Jong Un wanted to know everything so that he could take proper care of everyone, help everyone. Nobody believed this because if Kim Jong Un knew we had no electricity and were eating corn rice [imitation rice made from ground corn], why wasn’t he doing anything about it?”


----------



## a_majoor

Part 3:



> The bean trader:
> 
> “There was this story going around that Kim Il Sung had asked Kim Jong Un to get him an apple. Kim Jong Un asked for a shovel because he wanted to bring the whole tree. It was the kind of joke that the secret police would create. Instead of just doing top-down teaching, they would also create stories like this [about devotion to the regime] because they thought that their propaganda would circulate better as rumors and would seem more convincing.”
> 
> – – –
> 
> North Korea operates as a vast surveillance state, with a menacing state security department called the Bowibu as its backbone. Its agents are everywhere and operate with impunity.
> 
> The regime also operates a kind of neighborhood watch system. Every district in every town or city is broken up into neighborhood groups of 30 or 40 households, each with a leader who is responsible for coordinating grass-roots surveillance and encouraging people to snitch.
> 
> The young mother:
> 
> “People in each neighborhood association are always checking up on each other. If one family seems to be living better than everyone else, then all the neighbors try to find out how they are making their money. Everybody is sensitive because if someone seems to be living well, then people get jealous of that house. Nobody has to be asked to bring that wealthy family down and make sure that this wealthy family loses their money. When you see a family lose their house, that feels good. That’s why it’s important not to show off how wealthy you are.”
> 
> The farmer:
> 
> “Of course I thought about the outside world, but if you say, “I want to go to China or South Korea,” then it can be reported by an informant to the security services. You can think it, but you can’t say it. You never know who is going to snitch on you. We often heard and saw how Chinese people had money because Chinese people used to come to North Korea to sell things, so we thought it would be nice to live there.”
> 
> The rich kid:
> 
> “There were youth leaders who would patrol around, looking for things that we weren’t supposed to be doing. If you were wearing jeans or skinny pants, or if you had a manicure or your hair was too long, you would get in trouble. They would sometimes check your phone to see if you had any South Korean songs. I got busted for this, but I got out of it by buying them a box of 20 bottles of beer.”
> 
> 
> .
> – – –
> 
> For those who ran afoul of the regime in ways that money could not solve, the punishment could be harsh.
> 
> Those accused of economic crimes – which could involve any kind of private enterprise – are sent to prisons and often made to do hard labor, such as building roads by hand. But those accused of being traitors to the nation, a broad category that includes questioning the Kim family or its system, end up in political prison camps where they have to work in mines and receive almost no food. It is not unusual for three generations of a “traitor’s” family to end up in these concentration camps under North Korea’s guilt-by-association system.
> 
> The teenage prisoner:
> 
> “When I was 16, I was staying at my grandma’s house and there was a banging on the door late at night. Two secret police officers took me to the police station and asked me: ‘Where are your parents?’ I told them I didn’t know. It turned out that they had gone missing and I suspected that my mom’s business associates, when they realized this, planted a whole lot of stuff on her, said that she was the mastermind behind this big smuggling operation. The police yelled at me: ‘You’re just like your mother. You probably have fantasies about China, too.’ They slapped my face about five times.”
> 
> The phone connector:
> 
> “The first time I went to prison, I had been caught helping people make phone calls to their relatives in South Korea. I was sentenced to four months’ hard labor, building a road on the side of a mountain that they said we needed in case there was a war. The men did the digging and the women had to carry rocks and soil.”
> 
> – – –
> 
> Escapees from North Korea’s gruesome political prisons have recounted brutal treatment over the years, including medieval torture with shackles and fire and being forced to undergo abortions by the crudest methods. Human rights activists say that this appears to have lessened slightly under Kim. But severe beatings and certain kinds of torture – including being forced to remain in stress positions for crippling lengths of time – are commonplace throughout North Korea’s detention systems, as are public executions.
> 
> 
> The teenage prisoner:
> 
> “I was interrogated again by the secret police, and they wanted to know about my mother’s business. They were slapping me around the face again. They always go for the face. I was beaten severely that time. They pushed me so hard against the wall that I had blood coming from my head. I still get a headache sometimes. While I was there they made me sit with my legs crossed and my arms resting on my knees and my head always down. If you move at all or if you try to stretch your legs out, they will yell at you and hit you. I had to stay like that for hours on end.”
> 
> The money man:
> 
> “In 2015, a money transfer went bad – the woman I’d given the money to got caught and she ratted on me – and I was put in detention. I spent two months there. I wasn’t treated like a human being – they beat me, they made me sit in stress positions where I couldn’t lift my head. Two times they slapped my face and kicked me during interrogation, but I was not beaten up badly. Maybe because I was not a nobody, maybe they feared that I knew someone who could get back at them.”
> 
> – – –
> 
> Starvation is often part of the punishment, even for children. The 16-year-old lost 13 pounds in prison, weighing only 88 pounds when she emerged.
> 
> The teenage prisoner:
> 
> “We got up at 6 a.m. every day and went to bed at 11 p.m., and in between we would be working the whole time, shoveling cement or lugging sacks, except for lunch. Lunch was usually steamed corn. I was too scared to eat. I cried a lot. I didn’t want to live.”
> 
> The phone connector:
> 
> “Even though we were working so hard in prison camp, all we got to eat was a tiny bit of corn rice and a small potato. By the time I got out, I was so malnourished I could hardly walk.”
> 
> – – –
> 
> It is this web of prisons and concentration camps, coupled with the threat of execution, that stops people from speaking up. There is no organized dissent in North Korea, no political opposition.
> 
> The drug dealer:
> 
> “If you make problems, then your whole family gets punished. That’s why people don’t want to make any trouble. If I get punished for my wrongdoing, that’s one thing. But it’s my whole family that would be put at risk if I did something. North Koreans have seen that Kim Jong Un killed his own uncle, so we understand how merciless he can be. That’s why you can’t have an uprising in North Korea.”
> 
> The university student:
> 
> “The secret to North Korea’s survival is the reign of terror. Why do you think North Korea has public executions? Why do you think they block all communications? Why do you think North Koreans leave, knowing that they will never see their families again? It shows how bad things are. All our rights as people have been stripped away.”
> 
> The phone connector:
> 
> “If you speak out against the system, you will immediately be arrested. And if you do something wrong, then three generations of your family will be punished. In 2009, I heard there was a going to be some kind of coup launched in Chongjin and that all of the people involved were executed. When you hear about cases like this, of course you’re scared. So instead of trying to do something to change the system, it’s better just to leave.”
> 
> 
> In this June 16, 2017, photo, North Korean students use computer terminals at the Sci-Tech Complex in Pyongyang, North Korea. AP Photo/Wong Maye-E
> – – –
> 
> Some people do leave, but not that many. It’s incredibly risky and logistically difficult to get around the border guards and the barbed wire. Unknown thousands cross into China each year. Some remain in China, almost always young women who get sold to poor Chinese men in the countryside who can’t get a wife any other way. Some get caught and sent back – to certain imprisonment.
> 
> The repatriated wife, now 50, from Nampo. Escaped for the last time in 2016:
> 
> “I had lived in China for 20 years, but someone must have reported me. I was sent back to North Korea, and I spent two and a half years in a prison camp. [After she had left once more for China], I knew I couldn’t be repatriated again. I thought that it would be the end of my life.”
> 
> – – –
> 
> But each year, a thousand or so North Koreans make it to South Korea. In the 20-odd years since the famine, only 30,000 North Koreans have made it to the southern side of the peninsula.
> 
> During the late 1990s and the early 2000s, almost all the North Koreans who fled were escaping out of hunger or economic need. But the explosion of markets has improved life for many. Today, more people are leaving North Korea because they are disillusioned with the system, not because they can’t feed their families.
> 
> The accordion player:
> 
> “I was ambitious. I wanted to be a party member and enjoy all the opportunities that come with that. My dream was to make lots of money and be a high-ranking government official. Family background means so much in North Korea, but I had family in China and I realized that this would stop me from being able to follow my dreams. I left because I didn’t have the freedom to do what I wanted to do.”
> 
> The bean trader:
> 
> “I wanted to progress in life, I wanted to go to university, but because my mother had defected to China, it looked like I wouldn’t be able to go any further. It looked like I would be stuck in North Korea where I was. I could have moved, lived, no problem, but I felt like I didn’t have any future in North Korea. That’s why I decided to leave.”
> 
> 
> In this July 27, 2013, file photo, North Korean soldiers carrying packs marked with the nuclear symbol turn and look towards leader Kim Jong Un during a military parade in Pyongyang, North Korea. AP Photo/Wong Maye-E, File
> The meat delivery guy:
> 
> “We were told in school that we could be anybody. But after graduation, I realized that this wasn’t true and that I was being punished for somebody else’s wrongdoing. I realized I wouldn’t be able to survive here. So for two years I looked for a way out. When I thought about escaping, it gave me a psychological boost.”
> 
> The doctor:
> 
> “I hoped to work abroad as a doctor in the Middle East or Africa. But to work overseas you have to pass security screening to make sure you’re ideologically sound and aren’t going to defect. That’s a problem that money can’t solve and that’s where I got blocked. I was very angry, very annoyed. I cursed our society. I am a very capable person, and I was a party member, but even I couldn’t make it.”
> 
> The construction worker:
> 
> “I worked for three and a half years, but I made only $2,000 during that time. We were allowed to work overseas for five years maximum, and I was hoping to save $10,000 and return home proud. I realized it wasn’t going to happen, so I started looking for a chance to escape.”
> 
> The university student:
> 
> “I was so disgusted with the system. I didn’t have freedom to speak my mind, or to travel anywhere I wanted, or even to wear what I wanted. It was like living in a prison. We were monitored all the time by our neighborhood leader, by the normal police, by the secret police. If you ask me what was the worst thing about North Korea, I’d say: Being born there”
> 
> The bride:
> 
> After graduating from high school, she worked in the cornfields for two years but just sat at home after that. So when she heard that her friend had been sold to a Chinese man as a wife, she asked to be introduced to the broker so that she could be sold, too. At least she’d be able to earn money in China. She has just arrived in South Korea.
> 
> The meat delivery guy:
> 
> Because his mother was a “traitor” who had defected to South Korea, he was blocked from going to college or joining the military. Instead, he was put to work doing manual labor with criminals and low-lifes, for almost no salary. He made money by delivering meat from his father’s butchery to local restaurants. He is now a university student in South Korea.
> 
> The young mother, now 29, from Hoeryong. Escaped in 2014:
> 
> She came from a good family background, but her father was violent. She married young, to a truck driver, and they lived comfortably in North Korea. But her aunts lived in the South, and they told her she should bring their sister, her mother, to them. So she defected with her husband and their two daughters, a 4-year-old and a 1-month-old. She is now an office worker in South Korea.
> 
> The preschooler:
> 
> She doesn’t remember much of her life in North Korea, just her friends from preschool and a few songs that they used to sing. She is now in elementary school in South Korea.
> 
> The money man:
> 
> He had been a border guard but bribed his way out. He then started working as a money transfer broker, moving cash from families in China or South Korea to relatives in North Korea, all for a hefty fee. But one day a deal went bad when a customer in North Korea was caught with a large amount of Chinese currency and turned him in. He now works at a factory in South Korea.
> 
> The university student:
> 
> He came from an ordinary family but had big dreams. He kept thinking about escaping to China and becoming successful, doing a job that he found rewarding. One day his parents told him he should chase his dreams. So he did. He is now a reporter in South Korea.
> 
> The drug dealer:
> 
> After bribing his way out of his factory job during the famine, he got involved in all sorts of illegal activities, from smuggling antiques to selling ice, a methamphetamine, in both China and North Korea. He is now a construction worker in South Korea.
> 
> The hairdresser:
> 
> She had been at teachers college but had to quit when she was 19 to earn money for the family after her father became sick. She started doing hair at her house, but then got an opportunity to work at a restaurant in China and earn much more. So off she went, with a broker. But she discovered there was no restaurant. Instead, she was sold to a Chinese man for $12,000. She has just arrived in South Korea.
> 
> The farmer:
> 
> After her husband defected, she had to make ends meet. She made tofu from scratch, grew corn in a plot of land several hours’ walk from her home and raised pigs in her yard. It was hard to make ends meet, but it became even harder when she hurt her back and struggled to work. She still has a bad back and cannot work in South Korea.
> 
> The bean trader:
> 
> He came from a privileged family and lived well, until his grandfather got in trouble with the regime and his mother defected. So he worked as a trader, sourcing beans and sending them to his aunt, who would sell them at the markets in Pyongyang. He is now a university student in South Korea.
> 
> North Korean soldiers fired 40 shots at defector as he fled across border. He made it out alive
> Kim Jong Un’s North Korea is – cautiously – going online
> Inside North Korea’s propaganda machine: They hate Japan and the U.S. — but love the Queen
> The construction worker:
> 
> He worked and bribed his way into a construction job in Russia, a potentially lucrative posting. But despite working long hours, he often went months without being paid. Watching South Korean television opened his eyes to the lies of North Korea. He now works in South Korea.
> 
> The doctor:
> 
> He worked at a hospital in Hyesan and was a member of the Workers’ Party. He dreamed of being sent to the Middle East or Africa, where he could make much more money. But he was blocked from leaving. He now works as a doctor at a hospital in South Korea.
> 
> The fisherman:
> 
> He earned a good living, fishing for a state company and using his access to China to smuggle goods across the river. But his exposure to Chinese capitalism and South Korean radio broadcasts made him want to escape. He has just arrived in South Korea.
> 
> 
> In this May 5, 2015, file photo, a man uses his smartphone in Pyongyang, North Korea. North Korean officials have unveiled a mobile-friendly online shopping site. Ever so cautiously, North Korea is going online. AP Photo/Wong Maye-E, File
> The rich kid:
> 
> She was a high school student, the daughter of a successful businessman who was flourishing in the emerging private economy. She wanted for nothing. She is now a university student in South Korea.
> 
> The phone connector:
> 
> Using her Chinese cellphone, she worked arranging phone calls between North Koreans and relatives on the outside, either in China or South Korea. But she got caught and was forced to do hard labor in prison. She was caught a second time but paid a huge bribe to get off. She fled before she was caught again. She now works in South Korea.
> 
> The teenage prisoner:
> 
> She was a high school student and was staying with her grandmother in another city when the rest of her family suddenly escaped to China, apparently because one of her mother’s business deals went bad. She was imprisoned, tortured and made to do hard labor. She is now a university student in South Korea.
> 
> The accordion player:
> 
> She volunteered for the military as a way to improve her prospects in North Korea. She hoped to become a member of the Workers’ Party and be the mayor of her city one day. But she was thwarted from advancing because she had family in China. She is now a university student in South Korea.
> 
> The elementary:
> 
> She loves pink and a doll she was given after escaping North Korea. She’d never owned a doll before. She has just arrived in South Korea.
> 
> The repatriated wife:
> 
> She escaped to China during the famine and had been living with a Chinese man. They have two children. But in 2014, she was repatriated to North Korea and spent 2 1/2 years in a prison camp. When she was released, she escaped again but this time didn’t stop in China. She has just arrived in South Korea.


----------



## a_majoor

Why China may be forced to intervene:

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/nov/20/china-must-denuclearize-north-korea/?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTmpBMFl6STBNREJoTmpFMSIsInQiOiJpTFJmVHhmMmZwYkh2bUlmVE9Yck9zWnV2cWQ2NFlrSGErUFgyeFhcL2lySzNwa0JTcWR4XC9NSHRUTVBxZ3lcL012Q0hsaU0zUTZXSnl6d3ZCV3JXclNXZmxPN0pRdHVudnpxZ0FCSUw5d3RuYVpGU0YyY1hVUEU5ekEyUjJmbWxOcCJ9



> *No choice for China*
> By Daniel Gallington - - Monday, November 20, 2017
> ANALYSIS/OPINION:
> 
> If China doesn’t decide to intervene and essentially “denuclearize” North Korea — and soon — the Pacific region will “nuclearize” itself, in reaction to China’s inaction and the growing North Korean nuclear threat.
> 
> In short, the People's Republic of China doesn’t really have a choice in the matter; it must take down the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’s various nuclear weapons and related programs. President Trump’s decision Monday to re-list North Korea as a state sponsor of terror adds weight to the exigency.
> 
> Affecting the timing of China’s decision, however, will be the following very critical calculus: Which Asian countries may likely develop nuclear weapons and how long would it take?
> 
> In reverse order, how long would it take?
> 
> The answer to this might shock some: If one imagines the complete “nuclear fuel cycle” — to include nuclear weapons development — as 100 points on a scale, then 95 to 98 points could be associated with a “peaceful” nuclear program. Only the last few notches in the fuel cycle are needed for actual weapon development.
> 
> So, virtually any Asian or Pacific country with nuclear reactors or a nuclear power program, could probably produce a nuclear weapon if it was properly motivated, in other words, if it felt sufficiently threatened by North Korean nuclear weapons.
> 
> Which Asian-Pacific countries might consider such a step?
> 
> First of all could be countries that, in fact, had nuclear weapons programs at one time or another. This would include South Korea and Taiwan, for sure, and perhaps some others.
> 
> Recently, there has even been editorial comment in Australia that it should seriously consider a nuclear weapons program to address the emerging nuclear and intercontinental ballistic missile threat from North Korea. Australians certainly have the nuclear material and technology for such a program, should they decide they need it.
> 
> Second, most any Asian country that has a nuclear reactor or reactors might well consider adding on the “last steps” to the nuclear fuel cycle, and thereby producing the nuclear materials necessary for a weapons program. Japan, for example, could become a nuclear power very quickly.
> 
> Next question: Tactically, should the Chinese delay their action to shut down North Korea’s nuclear weapons program until they can “get something for it” in some kind of structured negotiations with the United States, similar to the past Six-Party talks?
> 
> Probably not. This because the U.S. strategic build-up in Asia will likely continue regardless of diplomatic discussions, if any; and likewise, those countries with existing nuclear infrastructures will likely continue thinking about nuclear weapons programs. This because the past negotiations with and/or about the North Korean nuclear program have served only as diplomatic cover for Pyongyang to continue its covert weapons programs. Accordingly, diplomacy does not seem a vehicle for reliable resolution.
> 
> Ironically perhaps, if and when China takes down the North Korean nuclear weapons program in a credible way, it could expect to see an immediate reduction in the current U.S. strategic response and build-up in Asia and the Pacific. Likewise, countries that were “on the edge” for beginning their own nuclear weapons programs could likely back down from them.
> 
> However, China must act quickly, and must act unilaterally to halt the North Korean nuclear weapons program in order to reverse the massive U.S. strategic responses and build-up in Asia.
> 
> Should the Chinese realize that, albeit indirectly, North Korea has become a threat to them? For sure, the reactions by the United States and other Asian countries to the North Korean nuclear weapons programs cannot be in the best interest of China, and they have to know this by now. Finally, do we really care how the Chinese solve the problem as long as they solve it? I really don’t think so.
> 
> • Daniel Gallington served through 11 rounds of bilateral negotiations in Geneva as a member of the U.S. Delegation to the Nuclear and Space Talks with the former Soviet Union.


----------



## tomahawk6

Ghost fleet washes ashore in Japan.Boats of dead North Koreans are washing up along Japan's shores.This isnt new but the numbers are . The theory is that the dead are North Korean soldiers turned fishermen. This week Japanese police have arrested North Korean fishermen for stealing generators from isolated huts.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/m/f9a4567c-80b6-3332-8a58-db7a36464a4d/ss_boats-full-of-dead-people.html

Fishermen arrested.

https://japantoday.com/category/crime/Police-arrest-3-N-Korean-fishing-boat-crew-for-theft


----------



## tomahawk6

As if the threat of nukes isnt enough,NK may have the means to wage biowar but the intel agencies have detected a weaponization program - yet.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/microbes-by-the-ton-officials-see-weapons-threat-as-north-korea-gains-biotech-expertise/2017/12/10/9b9d5f9e-d5f0-11e7-95bf-df7c19270879_story.html?utm_term=.34cbee902e54

Five months before North Korea’s first nuclear test in 2006, U.S. intelligence officials sent a report to Congress warning that secret work also was underway on a biological weapon. The communist regime, which had long ago acquired the pathogens that cause smallpox and anthrax, had assembled teams of scientists but seemed to be lacking in certain technical skills, the report said.

“Pyongyang’s resources presently include a rudimentary biotechnology infrastructure,” the report by the director of national intelligence explained.


----------



## Inspir

Wrong thread


----------



## Fabius

Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland and U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson have announced that Canada 
will host a meeting in Vancouver on 16 January to discuss a diplomatic way forward with respect to the North Korean
 nuclear weapon and ICBM programs. 

From my reading of various articles and press releases the diplomatic solution seems to be strictly ever increasing economic
 sanctions, which honestly seems rather dubious as a stick to convince the North Koreans that it’s in their interest to give up
 their two programs. I wonder what if any carrot is being offered or considered and if it actually means anything to the North 
Koreans.

If I try to think like North Korea, there is no way that I am giving up either of my two programs unless I have some very 
concrete iron clad guarantees regarding the integrity of my sovereignty and the security of my regime.  As North Korea I have
 seen too many other countries attacked by the US or others and I see my strength as the only thing holding anyone off, why 
would I want to give my strength away to the potential or perceived actual enemy? 

If my programs are aimed at ensuring my sovereignty and survival as a country and regime (at least in my North Korean mind 
if nothing else) what can the international community and the US specifically offer to guarantee those things and alleviate the 
fear and insecurity that drives me to feel the need for those systems?  

Maybe as a start point an actual peace treaty to replace the current ceasefire agreement?  I don’t know.


----------



## tomahawk6

There has been another "defector" that crossed into the ROK. ROK troops fired on the North Korean soldiers that were tracking the "defector". Of course it could be an agent with orders to kill the wounded defector. Who knows.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/another-north-korean-soldier-makes-a-mad-dash-across-the-dmz-1513820797

SEOUL—A North Korean soldier defected across the demilitarized zone into South Korea Thursday morning, the fourth such incident this year, according to the Defense Ministry in Seoul.

The defector is “junior ranking,” a ministry spokesman said, declining to reveal additional details about the soldier, including his name and rank. He defected across the border at about 8 a.m. Thursday, at an undisclosed point on the northwestern portion of the inter-Korean border, the spokesman said.

South Korean authorities are investigating the defector’s motivation.


----------



## jollyjacktar

Interesting story about what NK citizens might think of Canada.

http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/world/what-north-koreans-know-about-canada-nation-and-destiny-1.4542647


----------



## jollyjacktar

Infiltrating NK one USB at a time.

https://youtu.be/jKINA-ikgE4


----------



## a_majoor

New long article in "The National Interest", which suggests that China may well have reasons to curb the DPRK sooner rather than later. Full article posted in the long articles thread, and a link to the article itself:

*Doomsday: Why We Must Prepare for the Coming Collapse of North Korea*

https://army.ca/forums/threads/127523.0.html

http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/doomsday-why-we-must-prepare-the-coming-collapse-north-korea-24709?page=show


----------



## jollyjacktar

South Korea are saying that Kim J and the Donald are going to meet.  NK say they're giving up their bad ways with things that go boom.

http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/world/kim-jong-un-and-donald-trump-to-meet-says-south-korea-1.4568583

Interesting times.


----------



## tomahawk6

This will be the usual Nork rope a dope.They wont be giving up their nuke program.


----------



## YZT580

I can't recall their ever asking for a direct meeting the the U.S. president before though


----------



## Loachman

https://www.nationalreview.com/2018/03/north-korea-talks-trump-strategy-should-be-ambitious/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=180209_G-File&utm_term=GFile

Three Out-of-the-Box Options on North Korea 

By Nicholas Grossman

March 9, 2018 6:30 AM	

After the Olympics, South Korean envoys met directly with Kim Jong-un in North Korea - itself a small diplomatic breakthrough - to head off increasing tensions over joint American–South Korean military exercises scheduled for April. Kim surprised them by proposing talks with the United States and putting North Korea’s nuclear program on the table, backing this up with a promise to suspend nuclear and missile testing while the negotiations go on.

That’s big. Not that we should take Kim at his word - I doubt North Korea will give up its nuclear weapons - but his openness to diplomacy is a positive development, especially when accompanied by a voluntary testing freeze.

The United States should take this unexpected opportunity to think outside the box, perhaps making a grand proposal of its own.

Why would North Korea negotiate now? One possibility is that Trump’s version of Nixon’s “madman theory” yielded some success.

As many analysts have noted, the costs of attacking North Korea are prohibitively high: There would be thousands of South Korean fatalities within minutes, before U.S. air power could stop them, followed by a prolonged confrontation with potentially millions more casualties; at worst, a great power such as China might come to the North’s defense. The U.S. wouldn’t shy away if North Korea started a war, but these risks are sufficient to deter America from firing first. The Kim regime knows all this, which reduces its incentives to acquiesce to demands. It has been under sanction for years, but has managed to stay in power while advancing its missile and nuclear capabilities.

But if Trump could convince North Korea (and China) that he might be crazy enough to attack, Kim would be more willing to make concessions. Trump has issued a series of threats, on Twitter and elsewhere, that go far beyond what his predecessors did. He’s ordered additional forces to the region, such as three carrier groups conducting exercises in the waters between South Korea and Japan in November 2017, in a powerful show of force. And in January 2018, Trump interviewed North Korea expert Victor Cha for U.S. ambassador to South Korea - but the nomination fell through over Cha’s opposition to a pre-emptive strike.

This heightened risk of American attack gives Kim motivation to negotiate.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

One theory I saw is that they think that NK will get China to host to the meetings and then they can claim any success, furthering their diplomatic muscles.


----------



## a_majoor

Dilber creator Scott Adams should be putting up a post titled "I told you so". He has been blogging about the DPRK and seems to have been able to follow President Trump's thought process or game plan:

https://www.nysun.com/national/dilbert-scoops-them-all-on-inside-story-of-trump/90212/



> ‘*Dilbert’ Scoops ’em All On the Inside Story Of Trump Korea Talks*
> By IRA STOLL, Special to the Sun | March 12, 2018
> 
> Give “Dilbert” cartoonist Scott Adams the Pulitzer Prize for commentary. He deserves it for understanding and explaining all along what’s been going on with President Trump and North Korea, in a way that the coastal establishment elites missed because of their blinding contempt for Trump.
> 
> For those who haven’t been following the political commentary of Mr. Adams, it’s worth going back and reading.
> 
> In an April 12, 2017, blog post headlined “The North Korea Reframe,” Mr. Adams wrote about how Mr. Trump had reframed North Korea as a challenge to China.
> 
> “President Trump has said clearly and repeatedly that if China doesn’t fix the problem in its own backyard, the USA will step in to do what China couldn’t get done,” Mr. Adams wrote. “See the power in that framing? China doesn’t want a weak ‘brand.’...His reframing on North Korea is pitch-perfect. We’ve never seen anything like this.”
> 
> Mr. Adams followed up with an April 17, 2017, post headlined “How To Structure a Deal With North Korea.” He suggests giving North Korea “a story to save face.” He went on, “In persuasion language, you need to give North Korea a ‘fake because.’ They probably already want peace, but they don’t have a good public excuse for why they would cave to pressure and settle for it. Giving them something that has little value but can be exaggerated to seem like it has great value becomes the ‘fake because.’”
> 
> In a July 5, 2017, post, “Solving the North Korea Situation,” Mr. Adams wrote about the possibility of shifting from a win-lose framework on such a deal to a win-win framework, including a “100-year deal” leading to reunification.
> 
> In a July 31, 2017, post, headlined “People Keep Telling Me To Stop Blogging About North Korea,” Mr. Adams wrote, “My critics have been extra vocal lately in saying I should stop writing about North Korea because I have no expertise in that area. So I decided to talk about North Korea some more.”
> 
> In a September 5, 2017, post, Mr. Adams wrote, “in Kim Jong Un I suspect we have a negotiating partner who understands all dimensions.... we are also closer than we have ever been to a permanent solution.”
> 
> And in a January 3, 2018, post Mr. Adams rebutted critics who called President Trump’s tweet about having a bigger nuclear button than North Korea “crazy.”
> 
> Mr. Adams wrote, “what is missed in the hysterics over wording is that President Trump and Kim Jong Un are negotiating personally, albeit in public. And I think it is safe to say both players know they are being over-the-top with their trash-talk. The odds of a nuclear miscalculation based on anything said so far is effectively zero.”
> 
> He went on, “while it might look to many observers as two crazy leaders heading for a nuclear showdown, to me it looks like two colorful characters who probably have a weird kind of respect for each other.”
> 
> A January 17, 2018, Mr. Adams post headlined “How North Korea Can Become Switzerland of the East” noted, “Kim Jong Un went to school in Switzerland. He knows it as a country that gets just about everything right and does it without a traditional army.”
> 
> Mr. Adams hasn’t posted about North Korea on his blog, at least so far as I can tell, since President Trump earlier this month accepted a North Korean offer of direct talks. But if Mr. Adams does write something, an accurate headline might be, “I told you so.”
> 
> The Trump-North Korea talks could end inconclusively, or even dangerously, so the story isn’t over yet. On the basis of what’s happened so far, though, it certainly looks like Mr. Adams was correct. Mr. Trump’s tactics, rather than leading to war, have brought the North Koreans to the bargaining table.
> 
> Compare Mr. Adams’ take to elite opinion. As recently as February 1, in an editorial headlined, “Playing With Fire and Fury on North Korea,” the New York Times editorial board said, “It’s hard to come away from the State of the Union address without a heightened sense of foreboding about President Trump’s intentions toward North Korea. The signs increasingly point to unilateral American military action....
> 
> “Mr. Trump seemed to be building a case for war on emotional grounds... such words were in line with his history of bellicosity toward North Korea... Last year he threatened to answer North Korean provocations with fire and fury ‘the likes of which this world has never seen before.’... Mr. Trump’s preoccupation with military action and refusal to seriously pursue a diplomatic overture to North Korea are foolhardy.”
> 
> If anyone’s “foolhardy” here, it’s not Mr. Trump, but the Times editorial writers, who apparently hate Mr. Trump so much that they couldn’t see the truth of what Scott Adams had been writing for nearly a year. Part of the point of journalism is to explain to readers what’s really happening rather than stoking false, anxiety-provoking (if click-generating) fears or “foreboding.” By that standard, on the evidence so far, Mr. Adams has done a far better job on the North Korea story than the Times has.
> 
> Whatever power the Pulitzer committees have, individual readers have a power, too. That is to treat “elite” commentary with the skepticism it deserves, and to keep an eye out for outside-the-box thinkers such as Mr. Adams. If the fears about war with North Korea were unwarranted, maybe the fears about a Trump-tariff-provoked trade war are also phony, and there, too, presidential rhetoric and actions are being used in a fashion more calculated than reckless. At least it’s worth keeping an open mind about the possibility.


----------



## a_majoor

A longer article on President Trump's efforts to bring the DPRK to the table, by Austin Bay. The full article will be posted in the long article thread, but it is interesting to note that President Trump outlined a great deal of his strategy as far back as _1999_. Obviously this has been thought through and refined in the nearly two decades between conception and execution, so while positive results cannot be guaranteed, it is still a great achievement to execute this much of the plan between January 2017 and now:

http://observer.com/2018/03/how-donald-trump-got-north-korea-open-to-giving-up-its-nuclear-weapons/



> *How Trump’s ‘Maximum Pressure’ Strategy Got North Korea to the Table*
> By Austin Bay • 03/13/18 6:00am
> 
> Donald Trump’s October 24, 1999 Meet the Press interview with Tim Russert is a historically illuminating flash forward to the most surprising, promising and history-altering opportunity since the Soviet Union collapsed: “denuclearizing” North Korea without the could-be belligerents waging a hideously destructive war that scars East Asia and seeds a global economic depression.
> 
> Yes, those are the stakes: millions of dead and trillions of debt.
> 
> In the interview, Russert says Trump once indicated if he were president he would attack North Korea preemptively in order to end its nuclear threat.
> 
> Despite Russert’s vapors and wailing, Trump’s grammatically-challenged beer and barbecue answer is a superb twofer. One: Trump answers Russert’s core question. Two: Trump accurately summarizes the American government’s spaghetti-spined responses to North Korea’s slow but insidious quest for nuclear weapons.
> 
> Trump says, “First I’d negotiate and be sure I could get the best deal possible… These people in three or four years are going to have nuclear weapons… The biggest problem this world has is nuclear proliferation. And we have a country out there in North Korea which is sort of whacko, which is not a bunch of dummies and they are developing nuclear weapons… If that negotiation doesn’t work then better solve the problem now than solve it later.”
> 
> Trump continues, “…Jimmy Carter, who I really like, he went over there. It was so soft these people are just laughing at us…. You know that this country went out and gave them nuclear reactors, free fuel for 10 years, we virtually tried to bribe them into stopping and they’re continuing to do what they are doing. And they are laughing at us… You want to do it in five years when they have warheads all over the place, every one of them pointed to New York City, to Washington… Is that when you want to do it? You’d better do it now. And if they think you’re serious… They’ll negotiate and it’ll never come to that.”
> 
> Trump is a man who intuitively seeks and finds leverage in business negotiations, and his reply to Russert reflects that. Since his election in November 2016, that skill is now applied to two entwined problems from Hell that for six decades have boggled U.S. foreign policy officials and the vain goblins at the Council on Foreign Relations: ending The Korean War and halting nuclear proliferation.


----------



## pbi

On most grounds I have little time for Trump, but in this case I wish wholeheartedly for his success. A successful reduction of tensions in that part of the world could have interesting second and third order effects.

The big question in my mind is the role of China. How will they view a course of action which might ultimately lead to a unified Korea on their border? And possibly a Western-leaning Korea (If the re-unification of Germany is a useful model here? Would they see it as restricting their strategic freedom of action? Or as an unwelcome US diplomatic coup on their doorstep?


----------



## Journeyman

pbi said:
			
		

> ...... possibly a Western-leaning Korea (If the re-unification of Germany is a useful model here...


I think any reference to Germany may be tenuous at best.

Trump is no Konrad Adenauer;  previewing border wall prototypes (kind of like Ikea Berlin Wall shopping) after replacing the Secretary of State with an unquestioning yes-man -- a _very_  Politburo-esque move -- Trump is on the opposite side of that history.

As for the dictatorships' leadership, Egon Krenz (GDR's General Secretary at the time of reunification), wanted Germany together under Western-style democratic governance.  One of his big, previous stumbling blocks, besides the Soviet Union of course, was his predecessor, Erich Honecker, who loved the power he had (and I suspect, feared what the East Germans would do to him if given the freedom).  Despite Kim Jong Un's recent calls for Korean unification, he is _much_  more of a Honecker than a Krenz.


----------



## Edward Campbell

My, personal, _belief_ is that China wants the Koreas reunified under Seoul's hand ... North Korea is a drag on China ~ it is, from time to time, a handy tool to use against Japan and America but, on balance, it has far, Far, FAR, less "value" than does South Korea which is a major investor in China and a major source of technology.

I wonder: does Team Trump have _*any*_ idea about what it wants to do in, for, about, with and to East Asia?

What is useful is that President Trump and Kim Jong-un are "talking," or, at least, exchanging rude _Tweets_. Churchill was, of course, right about "jaw jaw" being better than "war war."

I also wonder about the role and position and loyalties of Kim Yo Jong, the younger sister of the North Korean loony dictator who made such a splash during the Winter Olympics and who may have extended the invitation for preliminary talks. I say "loyalties" because I _suspect_ that many North Koreans have deeply divided loyalties including to Korea, period.


----------



## a_majoor

The ROK deploys an anti-artillery brigade with heavy, long range precision missiles to strike the DPRK's artillery parks. They have also recently announced the purchase of more "Taurus" long range bunker busting cruise missiles, capable of being launched by ROK F-15's. The ability to push back against the DPRK's forward deployment of artillery in hardened bunkers and shelters is increasing:

https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2018/03/19/south-korea-to-deploy-artillery-killer-to-destroy-north-korean-bunkers/



> *South Korea to deploy ‘artillery killer’ to destroy North Korean bunkers*
> By: Jeff Jeong     1 day ago
> 
> SEOUL, South Korea — The South Korean Army plans to deploy surface-to-surface missiles in a newly created counter-artillery brigade by October, with the aim of destroying North Korea’s hardened long-range artillery sites near the Demilitarized Zone, should conflict erupt on the Korean Peninsula.
> 
> The plan is part of South Korea‘s defense reform for developing an offensive operations scheme, a defense source said. The tactical missiles are developed locally.
> 
> “The Ministry of National Defense has approved a plan to create an artillery brigade under a ground forces operations command to be inaugurated in October. The plan is to be reported to President Moon Jae-in next month as part of the ‘Defense Reform 2.0’ policy,” the source said. “The brigade’s mission is fairly focused on destroying North Korea’s long-range guns more rapidly and effectively, should conflict arise”
> 
> The three-year development of the GPS-guided Korea Tactical Surface-to-Surface Missile was completed last year. Hanwha Corporation, a precision-guided missile maker, led the development in partnership with the state-funded Agency for Defense Development, or ADD.
> 
> The missile, dubbed “artillery killer,” has a range of more than 120 kilometers and can hit targets with a 2-meter accuracy, according to ADD and Hanwha officials.
> 
> Four missiles can be launched almost simultaneously from a fixed launch pad. The missiles can penetrate bunkers and hardened, dug-in targets several meters underground.
> 
> “North Korea’s long-range artillery systems deployed along the border pose significant threats to the security of the capital area of South Korea,” said retired Lt. Gen. Shin Won-sik, a former operational director of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. “The counter-artillery brigade is expected to play a key role in neutralizing the North’s long-range artillery fire power, as the new surface-to-surface missile is capable of destroy the hideout of artillery forces.”
> 
> The artillery brigade is also to operate the Chunmoo Multiple Launch Rocket System, which can fire three types of ammunition: 130mm nonguided rockets; 227mm nonguided rockets; and 239mm guided rockets. The hitting range of the rockets are 36 kilometers, 80 kilometers and 160 kilometers, respectively.
> 
> According to the 2016 Defense White Paper, North Korea has some 8,600 towed and self-propelled artillery, as well as 5,500 multiple-launch rockets. Seventy percent of them were deployed near the border.
> 
> North Korea has forward-deployed 340 long-range guns that can fire 15,000 rounds per hour at Seoul and the surrounding metropolitan area.


----------



## tomahawk6

Kim isnt going to give away anything of value.he wont give up his nukes.That is a program with Iran also as a beneficiary.If Iran shows off it has a nuke then Saudi will buy one from Pakistan.Kim wants sanctions gone how he accomplishes that is gonna be very intriguing.He may offer to end his current program leaving his current weapons alone.Alot of ways to game the system.


----------



## Loachman

https://www.nationalreview.com/2018/04/north-korean-artillery-koksan-gun-could-be-inaccurate-unreliable/

The 170 mm Koksan, North Korea’s Not-So-Frightening Tool of Terror 

By Mike Fredenburg

April 5, 2018 6:30 AM

The DPRK's long gun could become wildly inaccurate and unreliable if it is used to attack Seoul.

Even if you typically don’t read defense-related publications, there’s a good chance you have read about North Korea’s fearsome self-propelled Koksan guns, which are perched along its border with South Korea. These 170 mm guns are, it is said, poised to rain thousands of deadly rounds upon the heads of the helpless citizens of Seoul if the DPRK is provoked.

Driving home the threat, the North Korean regime has for years threatened to use its artillery to turn Seoul to into a “sea of fire.” The threat is taken seriously by Western journalists. In 2003, Tony Karon wrote in Time that North Korea has the capacity to “flatten Seoul in the first half-hour of any confrontation.” In 2009, David C. Kang and Victor D. Cha speculated in Foreign Policy that a war on the Korean peninsula would cost about a trillion dollars in property damage and 1 million casualties, including 52,000 U.S. military casualties. In 2017, an article by Franz-Stefan Gady ran in the Diplomat with the description: “The first 24 hours of war on the Korean peninsula could cost hundreds of thousands of lives.”

But these articles and their ilk are long on emotion and short on knowledgeable analysis. They are playing right into the hands of Kim’s propaganda campaign, a campaign designed to convince an uneducated Western public and appeasement-minded politicians that even a North Korea with deliverable nuclear weapons and a history of attacking and killing South Koreans is preferable to the devastation the dictatorial regime can unleash with its conventional weapons.


----------



## Edward Campbell

Is this (from the _*South China Morning Post*_) why Kim Jong-un offered to suspend nuclear tests? Does he have no choice? Did his test site (mountain) collapse?


----------



## Journeyman

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> Did his test site (mountain) collapse?


I wonder what the prevailing winds are, for anyone downrange.  Chernobyl? Fukushima? Semipalatinsk test site?  op:


----------



## Edward Campbell

Journeyman said:
			
		

> I wonder what the prevailing winds are, for anyone downrange.  Chernobyl? Fukushima? Semipalatinsk test site?  op:




That appears to be the main Chinese concern.

The mountain is in the far North, very near the Chinese border and within "range" of a couple of small_ish_, i.e. one or two million people, Chinese cities.


----------



## tomahawk6

If he follows through and shuts down his missile program,the US will likely agree with pulling the US Army out of the ROK,but leave the USAF in place to hedge our bets.


----------



## kkwd

A meeting the likes of that hasn't been seen in a long time. But everybody knows you hope for the best and expect the worst when dealing with North Korea. 

https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/north-korea-south-korea-summit-intl/


----------



## Colin Parkinson

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> Is this (from the _*South China Morning Post*_) why Kim Jong-un offered to suspend nuclear tests? Does he have no choice? Did his test site (mountain) collapse?



I think it played part of it, the site was problematic and was starting to piss off his main ally. NK as a regional thorn was useful, a nuke armed NK might get uppity towards China as well and was creating to much of a threat to Chinese plans. It was also clear that instead of the US backing down, they were going to ramp up the defenses of SK and emplace weapons and systems that would reach into China as well. NK can't compete at that level and it's once vaunted conventional artillery threat was quickly being targeted for destruction in event of a war. The USSR could not afford an arms race with the west, NK never stood a chance. I don't trust him one bit and expect him to stab everyone in the back the first chance he gets.


----------



## George Wallace

A friend of mine wrote this, and many Trump haters are not going to like it:



> Trump probably deserves the Nobel Peace Prize for bring DPRK to the table. Here's why
> 
> First, he appeared unpredictable, radically different from the last 30 years of American leadership, and that alone was enough to scare North Korea. If you doubt this I challenge you to ask this question: Did you ever utter a phrase similar to “Trump as President is terrifying” or “Trump will lead us to World War III”?
> 
> Even if you didn't, plenty of others did.
> 
> https://www.huffingtonpost.com/matthew-d-taylor/donald-trumps-recipe-for-_1_b_9527534.html
> 
> If leftist Americans were scared, we should know damn well that the hermit kingdom - that cannot match America’s power in any sense - would be terrified.
> 
> Second, Trump directly used harsh language, direct threats of FIRE & FURY, and directly lashed out at North Korea and KJU. Similar to the first point, this was so different and intimidating that it provoked North Korea into trying to display its strength on a regular basis. And eventually those shows-of-force failed. Failed to the point of the DPRK’s test site collapsing.
> 
> https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/10/31/collapse-north-korea-nuclear-test-site-leaves-200-dead/
> 
> 
> Third, Trump closed sanction loopholes which made past sanctions hurt more.
> 
> https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-us-envoy/u-s-wants-to-see-north-korea-sanctions-bite-no-options-ruled-out-idUSKCN1BQ1NP
> 
> 
> Fourth, Trump pressured China. China has long treated the DPRK like a bastard little brother, defending them reluctantly but ultimately only out of their own interests. China doesn’t rely on North Korea, in fact China’s trade with South Korea has been far more profitable, but China relies on there being a buffer zone between their borders and the United States (in addition to the previously stated fact China doesn’t want 25,000,000 refugees).
> 
> But who is China’s largest trading partner? The United States, of course.
> 
> https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/chn/
> 
> So Trump threatened China: put pressure on North Korea or we will put pressure on you. China started by rejecting a coal shipment from North Korea.
> 
> http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/04/11/china-rejects-north-korean-coal-shipments-after-missile-test-and-u-s-pressure/
> 
> When China wasn’t helping enough, Trump called them out.
> 
> https://edition.cnn.com/.../president-donald.../index.html
> 
> 
> 
> Fifth, Trump created new sanctions and got China to join in. That first time was in September 2017.
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/21/trump-north-korea-executive-order-china
> 
> He issued another round in February 2018.
> 
> https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/23/us/politics/trump-north-korea-sanctions.html
> 
> 
> Sixth, Trump demonstrated that having a superpower "big brother" as a patron would not deter him from military action against a rogue regime.
> 
> https://www.nbcnews.com/video/russia-threatens-retaliation-for-any-u-s-strike-on-syria-1208188995617
> 
> Trump set this example with his action against the Syrian regime, despite Russian patronage of Assad.
> 
> http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-43769332
> 
> 
> 
> Seventh, Trump committed to a dramatic show of force with the deployment of carriers within striking range of DPRK.
> 
> https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/4889670/north-korea-us-navy-aircraft-carrier-battle-latest-group-war-games-korean-peninsula/
> 
> 
> 
> Eighth, Trump's willingness to buck decades of US foreign policy consensus presented KJU the best opportunity for normalizing relations he'll ever have. The US Deep State (i.e. all the bureaucrats, academics, think tanks and corporate interests) who couldn't visualize NK coming to the table, constrained previous administrations through close-minded advice... Trump was arrogant enough to disregard this advice, knowing it was born from repetition and resignation.
> 
> 
> President Trump did not single-handedly bring Kim Jong Un to the negotiating table, but he sure as hell was the primary motivator. President Xi and President Moon deserve credit too. Hell, even Kim Jong-Un, for the criminal he is, deserves credit for bringing his country to the table. We may not even get peace or denuclearization, as much as that sucks to acknowledge, but the fact we are even having this discussion outside of a thought experiment is something President Trump deserves credit for.
> 
> What's amazing is that leftist malcontents are furious that Trump may actually earn a Nobel Peace Prize when Obama got his just for showing up with the right skin colour.



So?  Is he crazy like a fox?


----------



## SeaKingTacco

I have no idea how this is all going to end up, but it sure is better right now in the Koreas than it has been for years.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Happy that steps are being taken in the right direction, but I don't trust the fat little puke or his regime. They will start to weasel if Trump is unelected.


----------



## Pencil Tech

Why is it that Donald Trump wants an agreement with North Korea but wants to tear up the one with Iran? 

Kim would be mad to give up his weapons. He might concede his long range ballistic missile program but nothing more. He's not going to end up on the end of a rope like Saddam or with a bayonet up his rear end like Ghadaffi.


----------



## Jarnhamar

Colin P said:
			
		

> Happy that steps are being taken in the right direction, but I don't trust the fat little puke or his regime. They will start to weasel if Trump is unelected.



We will have to keep Trump In power In order to maintain peace and avoid nuclear war.


----------



## Loachman

https://www.nationalreview.com/news/south-korean-president-trump-deserves-nobel-peace-prize/

South Korean President: Trump Deserves Nobel Peace Prize 

By Jack Crowe April 30, 2018 12:28 PM	

South Korean president Moon Jae-in said Monday that President Trump deserves a Nobel Peace Prize for his role in spurring negotiations between North and South Korea after a decades-long stand off.

“President Trump should win the Nobel Peace Prize. What we need is only peace,” Moon told a meeting of senior secretaries in response to the suggestion that he deserved the award, according to a South Korean official who briefed the media.

Moon has praised Trump’s efforts to open dialogue between the North and the South, saying in January that the American president “deserves big credit for bringing about the inter-Korean talks. It could be a resulting work of the U.S.-led sanctions and pressure.”


----------



## jollyjacktar

The butterfly effect if that came to pass would be epic.


----------



## QV

Pencil Tech said:
			
		

> Why is it that Donald Trump wants an agreement with North Korea but wants to tear up the one with Iran?
> 
> Kim would be mad to give up his weapons. He might concede his long range ballistic missile program but nothing more. He's not going to end up on the end of a rope like Saddam or with a bayonet up his rear end like Ghadaffi.



Well... It appears as though North Korea may want peace and to join the free world... meanwhile Iran has been secretly advancing its nuclear weapons program (according to recent news).  Radical islamists with a nuke would be exponentially worse then anything the world has faces thus far, in my opinion.


----------



## CBH99

I agree, Kim has absolutely zero motivation go completely dismantle his nuclear weapons programs under the current climate.  None.

Every single world leader that gives up it's WMD programs ends up on the receiving end of Uncle Sam's propaganda & subsequent overkill military action in due time, and Kim knows this.

Where I THINK the difference is, is that China isn't going to let US forces be stationed any further north than they already are.  China doesn't want the US military on it's border, nor does it want 15 million refugees flooding across either.

So because Kim is next door to China, and China isn't going to let the US military lurch right up to it's borders, I think Kim has an advantage that other world leaders didn't have.  China is in a position to put it's foot down far faster & with more resolve than Russia could 10 - 15 years ago.


----------



## Journeyman

QV said:
			
		

> ... meanwhile Iran has been secretly advancing its nuclear weapons program (according to recent news).


Do you have a credible source?  

I've seen two key stories:

1) Netanyahu accusing Iran of trying to obscure nuclear weapons files in 2015 and moving them to a secret location in Tehran last year. The most telling line (beyond "Tonight, I'm here to tell you one thing: Iran lied -- big time," which could have been written by the US President) is "Iran planned at the highest level to continue work related to nuclear weapons under different guises and using the same personnel."  LINK

"Iran _planned_..." Maintaining a potential ability to re-start a program is not the same as currently conducting operations. Most of Netanyahu's speech was a rehash of what Iran did between 1999-2003, providing absolutely no evidence that Iran was in violation of the agreement or hiding nuclear weapons production.


2) The White House published a statement saying that "Iran has a robust, clandestine nuclear weapons program that it has tried and failed to hide from the world and from its own people." They've already back-pedaled, saying 'oopsie, it was a typo; we meant Iran *had*  a robust nuclear weapons program.'  LINK

Notwithstanding the US Intelligence community assessment that Iran has indeed suspended its nuclear program, Trump is saying that Netanyahu's announcement shows he was "100% right" in criticizing the 2015 pact (naturally).

Do I trust Iran?  No.  

Have I seen any credible evidence that they are contravening the 2015 Nuclear Agreement?  Also no.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Pencil Tech said:
			
		

> Why is it that Donald Trump wants an agreement with North Korea but wants to tear up the one with Iran?
> 
> Kim would be mad to give up his weapons. He might concede his long range ballistic missile program but nothing more. He's not going to end up on the end of a rope like Saddam or with a bayonet up his rear end like Ghadaffi.



Because the Iranian deal sucks and is worthless?


----------



## Fishbone Jones

I'm glad they're talking. I'm glad KJU made the overtures. I'm glad Trump was given the credit he deserves, by South Korea. I'm glad China invited KJU to lunch, although I don't think KJU got to say much. I'm going to wait now and see how the talks start and see what happens. There appear to be a ton of 'what ifs' and a huge amount of people not even willing to see where this goes before they start their doom and gloom scenarios. The fact that both North and South have agreed to end the war is a fantastic and huge step in the right direction. I'm going to try and be an optimist about the whole thing, until, and if, it starts unravelling.

Now for Iran. Never trusted them, likely never will. According to the Israelis, who claim irrefutable proof in thousands of pages of intel, that Iran is disregarding and violating the Obama brokered agreement. Merkle and Macron have both come to try convince Trump to stay on board with the deal. They get a look at the Israeli intelligence this week when the EU gets briefed by Israel. Once the evidence, or lack of, is there, we'll see what happens. I would hope everyone agrees with Israel and puts their foot down on Iran. With a stated goal to wipe Israel off the map, I think it's time for Iran to get dragged out of the middle ages. Kicking and screaming if need be, but a world consensus on appropriate action should make them stand up and take notice. We've learned, that with terrorist muslim states, they can't be bought (they'll just steal the money and won't change anything), the can't be trusted because they still, religiously believe the can lie to infidels, even in state meetings. There is not one redeeming value to that country.


----------



## Remius

I don't think people should lump Iran with NK.  These aren't cookie cutter scenarios. Each is unique and has their own issues to deal with.  so it should be no surprise that Trump is taking a different approach. 

As for trusting NK, I don't.  At all.  But today's situation with NK seems better than yesterday's so there is that.

Trump's policy and strategy with NK is one I happen to agree with and have agreed with from the onset.  It's likely one of the only things I agree with him on (ok maybe there are a few more but they are few) but he does deserve a good chunk of credit.


----------



## Loachman

I am _*very*_ cautiously optimistic regarding North Korea.

I was posted back from Germany in the summer of 1989. While some cracks had begun to appear in the Soviet Union and its grip on its vassal states, I don't think that any of us there believed that any real change would occur, especially through non-violent means, in our lifetimes. I was too busy organizing my move back to pay much attention.

Just a few months later - November - I was watching, via my television, "Mauerspechte" ("Wall Woodpeckers" - students and others) sitting atop die Mauer and smacking it with sledgehammers, and not being shot or arrested or opposed in any manner.

In December, on a trip back to Lahr, I drove a rented Audi to Berlin (up to 240 km/hr on the former West German autobahn and still being passed at times, and a bare crawl on the former East German side due to road condition and reconstruction) and saw the recent changes, and things that had yet to change, for myself.

It is attractive, and (perhaps too) easy to imagine the same thing happening in Korea - one people, divided by two differing political ideologies for too long, reuniting.

Iran is a much different situation:

https://www.nationalreview.com/2018/04/iran-poses-serious-threat-to-middle-east-peace-stability/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=NR%20Daily%20Monday%20through%20Friday%202018-04-30&utm_term=NR5PM%20Actives

Why Push Back on Iran? 

By Kenneth M. Pollack

April 30, 2018 6:30 AM

For starters, the Islamic Republic poses a serious, intransigent threat to the stability and future direction of the Middle East.

Editor’s Note: The following piece originally appeared at AEIdeas, a public-policy blog published by the American Enterprise Institute. It is reprinted here with permission.

Because Iran treats us as an adversary 

I do not advocate a more confrontational policy toward Iran lightly. I have no animus toward the Iranian people and would like nothing more than to see a peaceful relationship between our countries. Throughout my career, I have advocated engagement and even rapprochement whenever I believed that there was an Iranian leadership that might be interested in the same. While still in government, I hoped the Iranian presidency of Hashemi Rafsanjani would allow for a thaw and cheered President George H.W. Bush’s famous overture to Iran that “goodwill begets goodwill.” In the late 1990s, I was President Clinton’s director for Persian Gulf affairs at the NSC and ardently supported his bid at rapprochement with Iran’s reformist president, Mohamed Khatami. Similarly, when the Obama administration sought not only a nuclear deal with Iran but a full-fledged transformation of the relationship, I publicly and privately supported them as well. I was admittedly more skeptical of the prospects than they were at first, but I believed that the U.S. could get a good deal on the nuclear front and completely agreed with them that it was worth trying to see if such a deal could be the first step toward a wider reconciliation.


----------



## kkwd

> North Korea reportedly hands Trump another big win by releasing US prisoners



According to early reports North Korea is releasing 3 US citizens. It is not a widespread story as of yet so check your favourite news source after for more info. 



> Kim Dong-cheol, Kim Sang-deok, and Kim Hak-seong — three US citizens detained in North Korea for years — have been released from a suspected labor camp and given health treatment and ideological education in Pyongyang.



http://www.businessinsider.com/north-korea-releases-us-prisoners-2018-5


----------



## jollyjacktar

I can never remember.  Is their surnames first, followed by the rest.  So effectively they're all Mr. Kims?


----------



## dimsum

jollyjacktar said:
			
		

> I can never remember.  Is their surnames first, followed by the rest.  So effectively they're all Mr. Kims?



Yes.


----------



## jollyjacktar

Dimsum said:
			
		

> Yes.



Thanks.  Kim must be the Smith of Korea then.


----------



## a_majoor

Interesting if counterintuitive idea: The DPRK's interest in negotiations stems from the idea the United States will ensure the Kim Regime can stay in power? While the idea of the Kime regime remaining in power in its current form is pretty abhorrent, changing out some of the current political and control mechanisms of the Kim regime while laving Kim in power as "president for life" or something else might actually make sense:

https://www.lifezette.com/polizette/does-kim-see-trump-as-his-savior/



> *Does Kim See Trump as His Savior?*
> Former U.S. Army vice chief of staff Jack Keane said N. Korean leader is looking at staying secure and in power for years
> by Kathryn Blackhurst | Updated 30 May 2018 at 1:35 PM
> 
> North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un is willing to negotiate denuclearization because he views President Donald Trump as his long-term ticket for remaining in power and gaining security for his regime, retired four-star Army Gen. Jack Keane said Tuesday on Fox News’ “America’s Newsroom.”
> 
> “[Kim’s] number one concern is not prosperity, not economic — certainly that’s important to him. I’m not suggesting it’s not. But clearly this has always been about security,” Keane said. “Why nuclear weapons? Why ballistic missiles? Why pointing them at the United States? All because he wants his regime to be secure and stay in power.”
> 
> Noting that Kim is “a young man” in his 30s who is “looking at many, many years down the road,” Keane emphasized that the North Korean leader “wants this regime to stay in power. And clearly that’s got to be on the table, and we will have to provide him some kind of guarantor for that as part of our negotiations and our concessions.”
> 
> Kim stunned the world when he agreed to a June 12 summit meeting, in Singapore with Trump, that would mark the first such gathering since the communist nation first formed in 1948. But Trump canceled the meeting Thursday “based on the tremendous anger and open hostility” displayed after a North Korean official bashed Vice President Mike Pence while threatening to instigate a nuclear showdown.
> 
> But Trump’s cancellation seemed to spark renewed efforts by Kim to get the summit meeting back on track, if not for June 12, then at a later date. After Kim met for a second time with South Korean President Moon Jae-in over the weekend, the North Korean leader sent one of his top officials, Kim Yong-chol, to the U.S. this week to meet with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and continue the planning discussions. Kim Yong-chol is the most senior member of a North Korean regime to set foot on U.S. soil since 2000.
> 
> Keane, the former vice chief of staff of the U.S. Army and now a Fox News contributor, told host Bill Hemmer that Kim is strategizing how best to attain his ultimate goal: regime security.



Full article at link


----------



## tomahawk6

I suspect that General Keane is right.


----------



## Rifleman62

Heard on TV that NOK, as a negotiating point for nuc free country, may go for withdraw of all NOK and ROK troops from the armistice area, replaced by troops from other country's, incl China.

Will these foreign troops incl Nations who contributed to the UN Forces? Weren't the Chinese "Volunteers" during the Korean War? Canada's forces were also volunteers, so I can see there will be real interest by Trudeau to deploy an Inf Bn +. 

Back to Korea


----------



## tomahawk6

UN Command is responsible for the Joint Security Area at PanMunJaum.The commander is an Army LTC with a ROK Army LTC as deputy and commands the ROK troops.Trump has changed his schedule probably for security reasons.But talks are said to be progressing.Whatever that means in reality.I suspect that Kim wants US forces out of Korea,currently US troops are rotated into Korea and the US would love to free those troops up for contingencies.The ROK Army is far stronger than years ago.The weakness of the ROKs is felt to be airpower. With US bases in Japan they could still assist the ROK if needed.

New schedule.

https://apnews.com/f4a5201ceceb44f896e2e497537ba116/US-says-NKorea-talks-moving-quickly,-Trump-to-leave-early


----------



## tomahawk6

President Trump has agreed to stopping war games in south Korea. It was something the North has complained about.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/us-to-stop-war-games-in-south-korea-trump-says/ar-AAywWMA?ocid=spartandhp


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

This is a truly interesting time.  I wonder if the Kim Regime will eventually go the way of China under Deng Xiaoping?  Maybe that is Kim's goal?

I don't care what people say about Trump or this summit, any move to make the world a safer place is a good move in my books!


----------



## dimsum

Humphrey Bogart said:
			
		

> This is a truly interesting time.  I wonder if the Kim Regime will eventually go the way of China under Deng Xiaoping?  Maybe that is Kim's goal?
> 
> I don't care what people say about Trump or this summit, any move to make the world a safer place is a good move in my books!



Agreed, but I'm not convinced that Trump make this happen (with Dennis Rodman).  This has "China" written all over it.


----------



## QV

Dimsum said:
			
		

> Agreed, but I'm not convinced that Trump make this happen (with Dennis Rodman).  This has "China" written all over it.



There is no doubt China had a lot of influence on NK - *thanks to pressure from Trump*.

If you disagree, curious then as to why this didn't happen under Obama's eight years? Or Bush, or Clinton...or...


----------



## tomahawk6

Dictators have self interest with regard to their continuation.Kim isn't going away unless deposed which probably not going to happen unless China makes it happen.


----------



## GAP

Clinton got played by the same type of rhetoric put out by NK....no meeting, lots of promises, lessening of restrictions, etc....it was all a sham to cover illicit activity
 :2c:


----------



## tomahawk6

Anything that lessens the threat of war is good for everyone.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> President Trump has agreed to stopping war games in south Korea. It was something the North has complained about.
> 
> https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/us-to-stop-war-games-in-south-korea-trump-says/ar-AAywWMA?ocid=spartandhp



And as soon as NK breaks their agreement, a wargame can start.


----------



## tomahawk6

You would be correct that said wargames could be restarted.Maybe deploy a battle group. ;D


----------



## tomahawk6

The latest nit to pick is that Trump saluted a North Korean General. :tsktsk:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/trump-returns-salute-of-north-korean-general-at-summit-state-media-footage-reveals/ar-AAyDTTQ


https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=5&v=yuQwntXCq5o


----------



## Good2Golf

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> The latest nit to pick is that Trump saluted a North Korean General. :tsktsk:
> 
> https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/trump-returns-salute-of-north-korean-general-at-summit-state-media-footage-reveals/ar-AAyDTTQ
> 
> 
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=5&v=yuQwntXCq5o



??? Not sure what protocol MSN's retired Admiral is referring to, but the North Korean general out of respect (deference) was saluting the visiting Head of State, or more accurately in military circles, the U.S. Military Commander-in-Chief (CinC/CINC).  US CINC returning a salute is a respectful acknowledgement of the originating protocol deference.

I may not always see things the way Trump supporters do, but in this case, those complaining are way off the mark.  The only awkwardness was perhaps POTUS going for a handshake first, but in the confines inside, that's understandable and certainly not worthy of molehills being ballooned into mountains.

:2c:

Regards
G2G


----------



## Remius

Agreed. People are making more of a deal out of this than it should be.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

I have full confidence in Kim playing games and Trump saying FU, lets have a wargame. There will be little patience for NK games during this POTUS tenure.


----------



## tomahawk6

The Pentagon hasn't canceled the war games yet. :

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/pentagon-hasnt-yet-issued-instructions-on-ending-war-games/ar-AAyHNGq


----------



## tomahawk6

Initially the initial return is of 200 US and allied MIA from the war.

https://www.stripes.com/news/pacific/us-prepares-for-return-of-war-dead-remains-from-north-korea-1.533741

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Memorial_Cemetery#/media/File:UN_Memorial_Cemetery.JPG


----------



## tomahawk6

Coffins were moved to Panmunjaum in case the North makes the return happen.

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/report-us-send-caskets-nkorea-return-war-remains-56103519


----------



## mariomike

"Identifying remains of U.S. war dead returned by North Korea will be tricky: experts"
https://milnet.ca/forums/threads/128290.0.html
“With no exception, every North Korean claim associated with human remains has shown to be false. For example, these 46 sets are actually fragments of more than 70 individuals,” the report said. Forensic analyses suggested none were American, the report said."


----------



## Altair

Kim ramping up nuclear fuel production.


----------



## tomahawk6

Sounds like its time to reschedule the war games and ramp up sanctions.


----------



## Journeyman

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> Sounds like its time to reschedule the war games and ramp up sanctions.


No, it sounds like growing understanding that maybe.... just _maybe_.... 'the great negotiator'... isn't.

North Korea as preamble?
Despite reasonable analysts scratching their heads, Trump got praise from Fox and his circle of synchophants for giving North Korea stuff they weren't even asking for in exchange for nothing.  I can't wait to see what he gives Putin.
      op:


----------



## tomahawk6

A USAF C17 picked up 55 remains of soldiers who were killed during the Korean War and they have landed at Osan AFB and eventually they will de flown to Hawaii for forensic evaluation and Hopefully they can be identified.

https://www.stripes.com/news/pacific/n-korea-hands-over-55-cases-of-remains-thought-to-be-us-war-dead-1.539731


----------



## Remius

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> A USAF C17 picked up 55 remains of soldiers who were killed during the Korean War and they have landed at Osan AFB and eventually they will de flown to Hawaii for forensic evaluation and Hopefully they can be identified.
> 
> https://www.stripes.com/news/pacific/n-korea-hands-over-55-cases-of-remains-thought-to-be-us-war-dead-1.539731



A symbolic gesture that I hope leads to more tangible results. 

Mostly though, I hope it brings some closure to at least some surviving families.


----------



## tomahawk6

IF the remains are legit then the next step is to identify them,with 7700 soldiers MIA I hope there can be some closure.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/mattis-us-must-make-sure-korea-war-remains-are-real/ar-BBL9r9Y?ocid=spartanntp


----------



## tomahawk6

After a quick analysis in the ROK the remains are now in Hawaii,where they will try to be identified.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/pence-hails-tangible-progress-with-north-korea-as-remains-of-presumed-korean-war-dead-arrive-in-hawaii/ar-BBLnH31?ocid=spartanntp


----------



## Eye In The Sky

Article Link

New Zealand, Australia sending aircraft to help implement UN North Korea sanctions

September 7th, 2018

New Zealand joined Australia on Friday in announcing the deployment of maritime patrol aircraft to help implement United Nations sanctions against North Korea.

Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters and Minister of Defence Ron Mark put out a statement saying New Zealand was sending a P-3K2 Orion to patrol international waters in North Asia.

"New Zealand is firmly committed to an enduring peace on the Korean Peninsula.  We welcome the recent dialogue North Korea has had with the United States and South Korea.  However, until such time as North Korea abides by its international obligations, full implementation of the United Nations Security Council Sanctions resolutions will be essential," Peters said in his statement.

"New Zealand will coordinate efforts with partners to counter North Korea's maritime activities that contravene UNSC resolutions, in particular its use of ship-to-ship transfers," said Mark.

Australia's Defence Minister Christopher Pyne also put out a statement. His said Australia was sending two AP-3C Orions. Earlier this year the Australians sent a P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft to the area on sanctions duty.

The aircraft will be based out of Kadena Air Base, on the southern Japanese island of Okinawa.

Pyne said in his statement that Australia's deployment supported Australia's ongoing economic and diplomatic pressure on North Korea. "Australia continues to work with partners to enforce sanctions to pressure North Korea to take concrete and verifiable steps to denuclearise."

Sanctions resolutions against North Korea were unanimously adopted and supported by permanent United Nations Security Council members.

Australia adds two AP-3C Orion patrol planes while New Zealand deploys P-3K2 aircraft to carry out patrols of international waters in North Asia


----------



## tomahawk6

The NORKs are expanding a long range missile base near China. 

https://www.stripes.com/news/north-korea-reportedly-expands-key-long-range-missile-base-1.559464


----------



## The Bread Guy

Again ...


> North Korea fired two short-range missiles off its east coast early Thursday, South Korea’s military said, a move apparently aimed at increasing Pyongyang’s leverage in nuclear talks with the United States.
> 
> The missiles were launched from around North Korea’s eastern city of Wonsan and headed eastward before splashing into the sea, according to South Korea’s joint chiefs of staff. The first missile traveled an estimated 430 kilometers and the second traveled 690 kilometers, it said.
> 
> South Korea’s military says the second missile may be a new design, but that further analysis was needed. If the distances are confirmed, the second missile flew further than a May North Korean missile launch, which had an estimated range of 450 kilometers.
> 
> North Korea in May launched what appeared to be its version of the Russian-made ISKANDER quasi-ballistic missile, which, though short-range, is able to be maneuvered in-flight and is apparently designed to evade South Korean and U.S. missile defenses ...


... and a "new"(?) sub:


> A new North Korean ballistic-missile submarine unveiled Tuesday looks like a remodeled old Soviet Golf-class sub.
> 
> Judging from photos and video clips released by state media, they have similar bridges and bows.
> 
> The Soviet Union deployed the Golf from the late 1950s until the early 90s. It was 98.9 m long with a submerged displacement of 3,500 tons and was capable of carrying three ballistic missiles.
> 
> In the mid-1990s the North imported one Golf from Russia that hardly more than scrap but did not dismantle it. At the time, the fire control system was missing but the missile launch tube was intact.
> 
> The Golf had a range of 17,600 km, long enough for the new North Korean sub to sail out and launch Pukguksong-1 missiles with a range of 1,500 to 2,000 km close enough to the U.S. mainland.
> 
> State media showed blurred or pixelated images of the back of the bridge where the ballistic missiles could be loaded ...


PRK info-machine photos attached.


----------



## tomahawk6

Pretty good article about recent North Korea weapons tests as being a threat since short range weapons would be hard to detect and destroy. Alot of work has been conducted to provide short defense against artillery and missiles. 

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/korea-watch/north-koreas-recent-missile-and-projectile-tests-need-your-attention-74906


----------



## The Bread Guy

MOAR missiles fly just before talks ...

_*" DPRK Academy of Defence Science Succeeds in Test-firing of New-type SLBM "*_ (PRK info-machine via fellow traveller blog - text also attached if you don't want to hit the link)
_*"North Korea tests submarine-capable missile fired from sea"*_ (BBC)
_*"North Korea Hails Sub-Based Missile That Raises Security Stakes"*_ (Bloomberg)
_*"Exclusive: Here’s the nuclear proposal the US plans to offer North Korea this weekend"*_ (Vox.com)
And in related developments ...


> The Unification Ministry has found evidence of severe radiation exposure in 10 North Koreans who defected from the vicinity of North Korea's defunct nuclear test site in Punggye-ri.
> 
> The ministry tested them and found radioactivity levels in their bodies exceeding 250 mSv, which is enough to trigger chromosomal abnormalities.
> 
> One 48-year-old woman showed 1,386 mSv of radiation, which drastically raises the chances of cancer. Nuclear industry workers can only be allowed to be exposed to around 50 mSv of radiation a year.
> 
> The ministry tested the defectors in September of last year but has still not officially announced the results a year later. Bareun Mirae Party lawmaker Choung Byoung-gug had to obtain them under a freedom-of-information request.
> 
> The tests also showed between seven and 59 chromosomal mutations in five of the defectors, with radiation levels of 279-1386 mSv. The 48-year-old woman with the highest contamination lived just 23 km away from Punggye-ri, where the North conducted three nuclear tests from 2006 to 2013 ...


----------



## dapaterson

CNN is reporting that Kim Jong Un "is in grave danger" following surgery.  Speculation began when he missed celebrations of his grandfather's birthday five days ago.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/20/politics/kim-jong-un-north-korea/index.html


----------



## MilEME09

From NBC 

"North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is brain dead, according to two US officials. He recently had cardiac surgery and slipped into a coma, according to one US current and one former US official. @NBCNews confirms and adds to CNN scoop from me, @ckubeNBC @carolelee"


----------



## CBH99

Unpredictable times...  didn't see that coming


----------



## dapaterson

So, 2020 so far: pandemic, oil crash into negative prices, massive destabilization of the Korean Peninsula.

And we're not even through the first third of the year.


----------



## Bruce Monkhouse

Oh my.....and I doubt his ego would have allowed for a succession plan.


----------



## PuckChaser

MilEME09 said:
			
		

> From NBC
> 
> "North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is brain dead, according to two US officials. He recently had cardiac surgery and slipped into a coma, according to one US current and one former US official. @NBCNews confirms and adds to CNN scoop from me, @ckubeNBC @carolelee"


Was he not brain dead before, for at least a few years?

I hope if it is true, someone has the testicular fortitude to take over and create a democracy to bring freedom and prosperity to the North Koreans, perhaps even a unified Korea. One can dream I guess.


----------



## Brad Sallows

"@ckubeNBC @carolelee"

Well..wait for it.  Katy Tur apparently deleted her tweet "out of an abundance of caution. Waiting on more info. Apologies:"


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Those sort of regimes, they like to leak rumours of the death of the leader to see who does what and then have the leader reappear and execute the disloyal ones.


----------



## Weinie

Colin P said:
			
		

> Those sort of regimes, they like to leak rumours of the death of the leader to see who does what and then have the leader reappear and execute the disloyal ones.



And even if it is true (wonder how many bodyguards were overseeing the surgeons and medical staff so there would not be an unfortunate accident during the surgery  ) his sister has solidified her standing within the oligarchy. Far too much to lose for a favoured few, and I am sure that consolidation of control has already taken place, in the event that the Pillsbury Doughboy dies.


----------



## tomahawk6

Be more concerned about who takes over after Kim Jong Un. Kim has played this game before only to emerge to deal with those that have shown themselves to be less than loyal.


----------



## dimsum

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> Be more concerned about who takes over after Kim Jong Un. Kim has played this game before only to emerge to deal with those that have shown themselves to be less than loyal.



Apparently he has young children.  A few other forums have speculated that his sister may become regent to his oldest until he can take over.  

Or she can go GoT style and kill them to consolidate her power.  

:dunno:


----------



## brihard

PuckChaser said:
			
		

> Was he not brain dead before, for at least a few years?
> 
> I hope if it is true, someone has the testicular fortitude to take over and create a democracy to bring freedom and prosperity to the North Koreans, perhaps even a unified Korea. One can dream I guess.



Unlikely. Anyone who is in anything close to a position to lead a transition of power is probably complicit enough to be up against a wall early in the proceedings.

There is such a vast, vast gap between North Korea and anything approaching a developing democracy that I don't even know where they would begin. Mass food distribution and early family reunifications would be key- show some tangible benefits, and get information flowing back and forth via grassroot, trusted sources so that truth can start making it in to the north.

Can you imagine the sheer cultural shock that would accompany such a sudden opening back up?


----------



## dimsum

Brihard said:
			
		

> Can you imagine the sheer cultural shock that would accompany such a sudden opening back up?



Oh man, it'd make the German reunification look simple.


----------



## Remius

For starters they would need a ministry of mental health...


----------



## MilEME09

https://calgaryherald.com/pmn/news-pmn/politics-news-pmn/china-sent-team-including-medical-experts-to-advise-on-n-koreas-kim-sources/wcm/8b50ca53-2782-430b-aa3a-8e6bacea857b/?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1587832766


China has reported sent a medical team to North Korea to asses and help Treat Kim Jong-un, he is reportedly in a vegetative state after surgery. In which case I know a doctor who is about to die, unless this was a power move by someone close to Kim, such as a sibling.


----------



## dapaterson

Given demographics and preferences for male children in the south, lots of Northern brides for Southern brothers in the event of unification.


----------



## MilEME09

dapaterson said:
			
		

> Given demographics and preferences for male children in the south, lots of Northern brides for Southern brothers in the event of unification.



If the border came down, it would be a humanitarian disaster, culture shock, and decades of mine removal. Some type of peacekeeping OP would likely be required to protect NGOs in the north. Likely to  be Chinese, russian or south Korean troops mixed together.


----------



## Kat Stevens

MilEME09 said:
			
		

> If the border came down, it would be a humanitarian disaster, culture shock, and decades of mine removal. Some type of peacekeeping OP would likely be required to protect NGOs in the north. Likely to  be Chinese, russian or south Korean troops mixed together.



More likely is China would slowly consume it's genetically stunted conjoined wombmate.


----------



## dapaterson

Don't think China wants another non-Han economic basket case to worry about.

Keep a closed border without a Western presence on the Chinese frontier and they would likely not be upset.


----------



## MilEME09

Take it with a lot of salt but TMZ is reporting, citing the Chinese foreign ministers daughter, that Kim Jong-Un is dead, and that his sister is likely to replace him.


----------



## daftandbarmy

The Hermit Kingdom, according to the economist on April 8th: 

North Korea is changing, but still dangerous

IN THE SUMMER of 2019, South Koreans were shocked by the news that a North Korean woman, who had fled her country through China a decade before, had died with her young son in her ﬂat in Seoul. Weeks passed before a building manager found the bodies. Authorities concluded she had starved.

Though the case was unusual, it highlighted an important truth. Much is made of how Koreans have thousands of years of shared history and culture. But the split between the communist North and the capitalist South after the second world war was deep and traumatic. Today, people who flee the impoverished dictatorship of Kim Jong Un for the rich, free South find it hard to adapt to life in such a different society. This matters immensely if the two Koreas are ever to reunite.

The number of North Koreans making it to the South has declined of late. Some 33,000 have settled in total, but the 1,047 who registered for the first time in 2019 was the lowest number for nearly two decades. Tighter controls at the Chinese border with North Korea, as well as increased efforts by China to repatriate refugees, are major reasons. Another could be that the North Korean economy is going through a loosening of its own and heading in a less Marxist direction. That has raised hopes of loosening in other areas, notably the 70-year military stalemate on the peninsula.

For a few heady months in 2018, change was in the air. In April 2018 Moon Jae-in and Kim Jong Un met for the first time in Panmunjom in the demilitarised zone and stepped hand in hand across the border between their countries. South Korea (and much of the world) swooned. The two leaders vowed to accelerate efforts to reunify Korea by stepping up economic co-operation and intensifying personal exchanges. They promised to reduce military tensions and formally end the Korean war. They also said they would work towards a “nuclear-free” Korean peninsula.

The “spirit of Panmunjom” rekindled discussion about the possibility of reunification. Despite the North’s appalling regime and nuclear threats, most South Koreans favour the idea. They consider North Koreans neighbours, not foes. Many have relatives on the other side. However, interest in reunification is markedly lower among South Koreans in their 20s and 30s, especially if asked whether they would be happy to pay for it.

How might reunification play out? For years, South Koreans looked to East and West Germany as an example. An economically and politically weak North Korea would be “absorbed” by the South. Refugees would surge southwards. The cost to southern taxpayers would at first be huge. But there would be new opportunities for southern firms to build modern infrastructure up north.

Mr Moon’s government, however, favours a more gradual process. His “new northern policy” envisions a phased opening of North Korea through the rebuilding of railways, pipelines and roads, intensifying trade links across north-east Asia. Eventually, the two Koreas would move towards a federal system and reunification. His plan is tactfully silent on its political implications.

The Kim regime insists that American troops should leave the peninsula. China, the Kim regime’s patron, agrees. South Koreans, who fear China, may not. In a future united Korea, northerners would surely want the vote. That would spell the end of the Kim dynasty, and perhaps the prosecution of Mr Kim himself. Would China allow any of this to happen? To say that Mr Moon’s plan faces obstacles is an understatement.

How much would reunification cost South Korea? Estimates range from around 3% to 12% of its annual GDP over several decades. The potential economic benefits to South Korea are uncertain. In the German case, much of the fiscal aid to the East ended up on the balance-sheets of West German landlords, construction firms and consumer-goods producers. But North Koreans are much poorer than East Germans were at the time of reunification, when West Germans were only about twice as rich as their cousins in the East. South Korea’s national income per head in 2018 was 25 times that of North Korea. What’s more, North Korea currently has much stronger commercial links with China, which accounts for 90% of its trade, than with South Korea, so there is no guarantee that southern aid would actually end up back in the South.

Until North Korea either dramatically reforms or collapses, reunification is hard to imagine. For now, neither seems very likely. That said, the economic changes in the North are real. The famine in the 1990s that killed more than half a million people led to a transformation of the country from below, as millions of North Koreans began buying and selling things to survive, despite such commerce being officially illegal. There are now hundreds of illicit-but-tolerated markets, known as jangmadang, in the country. Kim Byung-Yeon of Seoul National University estimates that ordinary North Koreans earn at least two-thirds of their income from such activities, possibly much more.

There is no sign of political loosening, but Marxist economics is now mostly a thing of the past in the North. Marketisation has intensified under Kim Jong Un. Most trade with China is controlled by conglomerates close to the armed forces and the party, which operate largely according to market principles. They are “North Korea’s version of the chaebol”, argues Rüdiger Frank of the University of Vienna. Those in charge pay a percentage of their profits into state coffers in return for relative operational freedom (though this is not yet called “corporation tax”). This has created a new class known as donju, “money men”, quasi-capitalists who are loyal to the state but whose wealth also gives them some leverage. Besides parking it in foreign bank accounts, they apparently invest their cash in Pyongyang’s property market, where de facto private ownership of flats and apartment buildings is now common.

An important consequence of these developments has been a diversion of citizens’ loyalties from the state to smaller social groupings such as the family, argues Hazel Smith of the School of Oriental and African Studies in London. They cannot rely on the state for their livelihood, even if they have to pretend to believe in the greatness of their leaders to avoid being thrown in a gulag.

This “obvious dissonance between rhetoric and reality” may explain the current Mr Kim’s difference in focus. His father tried to stamp out the grey economy. At one point he tried to confiscate traders’ savings by declaring old banknotes no longer to be legal tender, though this reform was swiftly reversed and the official in charge of it was shot. By contrast, the current god-king of North Korea has largely refrained from interfering with the jangmadang. His propaganda promises prosperity. Though the vast majority of North Koreans remain poor, the grey economy and the gradual marketisation of state enterprises has provided many with a measure of comfort unimaginable under Kim Jong Il. North Korea is increasingly turning into a place where there is nothing money cannot buy—as long as you have it.

From the late 1990s, lively smuggling networks between North Korea and China enabled tens of thousands of North Koreans to escape, including, via an underground railroad through China and South-East Asia, to the South. But political repression has intensified since the latest Mr Kim took power. Security along the border with China has been tightened. China has built new fences and video-surveillance systems, making it costlier to pay smugglers and to bribe officials to turn a blind eye to illegal border crossings.

Mr Kim sees economic growth partly as a way of keeping the masses quiet, and partly as a way to finance his nuclear-weapons programme. Under him, North Korea has conducted four nuclear tests and over a hundred missile launches, including three of intercontinental ballistic missiles in 2017. According to Siegfried Hecker and colleagues at Stanford University, it probably has around 30 nuclear weapons and sufficient fissile material for as many more, though there is still some uncertainty over the degree to which it can reduce the size of warheads to fit them onto its missiles, and whether its long-range missiles could really hit the United States.

If Mr Kim were actually to fire a nuclear weapon in anger, it would be the end of his regime (and a great deal more besides). But he appears to believe that possessing such weapons is his best guarantee against external attack. Talks about disarmament that followed the inter-Korean thaw in 2018 have not got far, despite three meetings between Mr Kim and Donald Trump. Working-level talks never got off the ground. In May 2019 Mr Kim resumed the missile tests which he had promised to abandon the year before.

His “new path” represents something more worrying than a return to the status quo. America’s response to North Korea’s resumption of missile tests has been weak and muted. That has increased the risk that Mr Kim will grow overconfident and, consequently, miscalculate, says Jenny Town of the Stimson Centre, a think-tank in Washington, DC. “It has become very unclear what the red lines are. Which kind of provocation would spark a response now?” she asks.

That uncertainty is one of several. Relations among allies in the region are more strained than they have ever been. South Korea finds the Trump administration’s transactional approach to alliances both objectionable and frightening. Previous American presidents regarded their troops in Korea (of whom there are still 28,000) as part of a broader strategy to keep the peace in Asia. Mr Trump carps about the price tag. Negotiations between the two countries over cost-sharing, which used to happen every five years, have become a painful annual ritual. South Koreans have been put out by American demands that they pay the entire cost of its troop deployment, and by America’s use of public furlough threats to South Korean staff at its bases as a negotiating tactic. Both sides repeat, in public, that the alliance is “ironclad”. But Mr Trump shows few signs of believing this.

The deteriorating relationship between America and China adds a further complication. Back in 2017 and early 2018, the two great powers looked relatively united in their desire to curb North Korea’s provocations. China assisted efforts to mitigate the threat from the North through strict enforcement of the international sanctions designed to curb Mr Kim’s nuclear ambitions. Amid the trade war between the two countries, however, such co-operation has waned.

All this means that the appropriate symbol for the inter-Korean mood over the next few years may lie not in Panmunjom, but at another spot on the DMZ. At the Imjingak Observatory, the unfinished station for a “peace gondola” towers over a vast, mostly empty car park. In the “unification pond” that was gifted by a wealthy donor just last year, a few lifeless-looking carp float around below the surface. And on the bridge that looks out over the bird-filled fields of the DMZ, an elderly visitor who was born just across the border with the North muses on the possibilities of reunification. “I still hope it’ll happen but it probably won’t.” 


https://www.economist.com/special-report/2020/04/08/north-korea-is-changing-but-still-dangerous


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## Colin Parkinson

I think a Myanmar type solution would suit both China and SK, with a Junta of generals running the country (mostly for their own gain) with a gradually reduction in hostilities and normaliztion of relationships with the rest of the world. they still play games, but not to the utter nutbars they are now. With that means that China has a reliable ally on it's border, access to a new market and cheap labour.


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## MilEME09

Colin P said:
			
		

> I think a Myanmar type solution would suit both China and SK, with a Junta of generals running the country (mostly for their own gain) with a gradually reduction in hostilities and normaliztion of relationships with the rest of the world. they still play games, but not to the utter nutbars they are now. With that means that China has a reliable ally on it's border, access to a new market and cheap labour.



Articles I have read indicate many in the North wouldn't accept Kim's sister as leader due to being woman. It is possible we could see a power struggle, which if it got outta control could see a civil war, and with nukes in play, that would be dangerous and like need foreign intervention to secure those weapons.


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## Kat Stevens

MilEME09 said:
			
		

> Articles I have read indicate many in the North wouldn't accept Kim's sister as leader due to being woman. It is possible we could see a power struggle, which if it got outta control could see a civil war, and with nukes in play, that would be dangerous and like need foreign intervention to secure those weapons.



From what I gather, the sister is as batshit loonie toons as Kim. She'd just need to lop off a few dissenting heads in a very loud public manner, plus many more quiet assassinations, and the generals will fall in line.


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## blacktriangle

Target Up said:
			
		

> From what I gather, the sister is as batshit loonie toons as Kim. She'd just need to lop off a few dissenting heads in a very loud public manner, plus many more quiet assassinations, and the generals will fall in line.



So not too dissimilar from many ex-wives?


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## CBH99

Target Up said:
			
		

> From what I gather, the sister is as batshit loonie toons as Kim. She'd just need to lop off a few dissenting heads in a very loud public manner, plus many more quiet assassinations, and the generals will fall in line.




I think the chances of having a leader rise to power in North Korea, that isn't a total nut, is slim to none.

We have to remember...what they learned throughout their entire lives about the state and status of North Korea compared to the rest of the world, what they learned about the rest of the world, what they are taught in school, and their blind devotion to their supreme leader -- when compared to the rest of the world -- they will all seem nutty to us.


I might be wrong.  Just seems like an almost certainty that if your entire population is raised with extreme propaganda from the very start, they will grow up having a very warped world view.


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## stellarpanther

South Korea is saying he is alive and well.


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## QV

CBH99 said:
			
		

> I think the chances of having a leader rise to power in North Korea, that isn't a total nut, is slim to none.
> 
> We have to remember...what they learned throughout their entire lives about the state and status of North Korea compared to the rest of the world, what they learned about the rest of the world, what they are taught in school, and their blind devotion to their supreme leader -- when compared to the rest of the world -- they will all seem nutty to us.
> 
> 
> I might be wrong.  Just seems like an almost certainty that if your entire population is raised with extreme propaganda from the very start, they will grow up having a very warped world view.



Kim and his sister were educated in Sweden, iirc.


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## Remius

Lates is that he may have been injure during a missile test.


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## daftandbarmy

Remius said:
			
		

> Lates is that he may have been injure during a missile test.



Ironic if true because: Little Rocket man

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/kim-jong-un-been-injured-21931031


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## cavalryman

Remius said:
			
		

> Lates is that he may have been injure during a missile test.



Didn't waddle away fast enough after strapping a beloved uncle to the missile?


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## MilEME09

https://americanmilitarynews.com/2020/04/south-korea-detects-unusual-increase-in-north-korea-military-activity-amid-kim-jong-un-death-rumors/?utm_source=militarymemes&utm_medium=facebook&utm_campaign=alt

Increased activity has been detected from the DPRK's Arty and air forces.


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## Weinie

cavalryman said:
			
		

> Didn't waddle away fast enough after strapping a beloved uncle to the missile?


I think he only has one beloved uncle left. Gotta save those silver bullets.


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## stellarpanther

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/south-korea-says-it-knows-whereabouts-of-north-koreas-kim-jong-un-and-that-trump-should-have-been-notified-2020-04-28

South Korea says it knows where NK leader is.


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## shawn5o

The hermit kingdom is in the news again.


*Kim Jong-Un 'is in a coma and his sister is set to take control' of North Korea, claims South Korean diplomat*

By SOPHIE TANNO FOR MAILONLINE
PUBLISHED: 14:33 EDT, 23 August 2020 | UPDATED: 08:57 EDT, 24 August 2020

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8656207/Kim-Jong-coma-sister-set-control-claims-South-Korean-diplomat.html

A South Korean diplomat has speculated that Kim Jong Un is in a coma and his sister is being positioned to take control of North Korea. 

Chang Song-min, an ex-aide to late-South Korean president Kim Dae-jung, believes Kim has been in a comatose state since April, and that all of his public appearances have been faked.

Chang speculated that Kim Yo-jong, the dictator's younger sister, is now being groomed for leadership after spy chiefs claimed that she has been promoted to de-facto deputy leader of the country.

Intelligence officials are said to have told a closed-door meeting of security chiefs that Kim has put his sister in charge of foreign policy toward the US and South Korea.

The role, if confirmed, would make her de-facto second-in-command of the country. Chang said that such a move is unprecedented in North Korea's history, and would only occur under two scenarios - if Kim was gravely ill, or if there had been a coup.


LINK


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## Donald H

This could  be good news in that it placed N.K. in position for a breakthrough in which it can normalize relations with China and begin to benefit from China's capitalism under China's communist regime. 

Or the other possibility of N.K. submitting to S.K./US demands, which is less likely due to N.K. being in China's/Russia's sphere of influence. 

Foremost of considerations is still going to be the Korean people will to reunite their country.


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## Blackadder1916

So what else is new since this topic was discussed on this forum back in April?  If his sister has been transitioning to power in the intervening four months, then it may be that no news is good news - or at least none that affects the daily lives of those beyond the borders of the DPRK.


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## CBH99

My understanding is that he wasn't in a coma, and he is back to business as usual.  (Albeit there are concerns about his health, still.)

I _personally believe_ it may have been a ruse to see who would come out of the woodwork to try and claim power, so he could verify who is loyal and who isn't.  (A tried & true tactic of long term dictators.)


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## jeffb

Donald H said:
			
		

> Foremost of considerations is still going to be the Korean people will to reunite their country.



Will aside, reunification would be a disaster for the ROK. Significant foreign aid is pushed to the ROK to contain the DRPK that would likely evaporate on reunification. The ROK would need to take on the burden of 25 million people who will require significant investment to integrate into the highly modern ROK economy. The infrastructure demands to modernize the area of North Korea will also likely be crippling. Look at the challenges associated with integration of West and East Germany. The differences between the ROK and the DPRK are far greater.


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## OldSolduer

CBH99 said:
			
		

> My understanding is that he wasn't in a coma, and he is back to business as usual.  (Albeit there are concerns about his health, still.)
> 
> I _personally believe_ it may have been a ruse to see who would come out of the woodwork to try and claim power, so he could verify who is loyal and who isn't.  (A tried & true tactic of long term dictators.)



Maybe he caught the 9mm flu.....


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## a_majoor

Here is a video from a defector from the DPRK describing her daily life. Very interesting look from a personal level.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=afqaRpYPkFw

Eating dinner early in the winter because candles are so expensive.....


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## a_majoor

A long article on the deterioration of the DPRK's military capabilities. Instead of just "rust out" like we face, the troops are malnourished and essentially live off plundering nearby civilians, while the regime uses a "starve the many to feed the few" strategy to shore up it's Special Forces and nuclear capabilities, although even the Special Forces are declining in quality and utility:

https://strategypage.com/qnd/korea/articles/20201103.aspx



> Korea: The Fading Storm Corps
> 
> November 3, 2020: North Korea, desperate to seal the Chinese border, has been sending thousands of their special operations troops to the border because all other types of troops and secret police detachments have failed. Most of the 200,000 North Korean special operations troops belong to the 11 th Storm Corps. Most of the special operations troops are light infantry that train intensively to master one special skill. There are twelve light infantry brigades, three sniper brigades, three airborne brigades and a marine brigade. The most elite units are the 25 reconnaissance battalions, most of them trained to sneak through the DMZ and make surprise attacks early in a war.
> 
> As Kim Jong Un ordered more and more Strom Corps troops troops to the Chinese border this year, it became painfully obvious that these units were not as special as described. Years of less food and less time for intensive training became apparent on the Chinese border where Storm Corps patrols were often sloppy and there were obvious discipline problems. In the last decade, even the special operations troops have lost much of their specialness. Only about 20 percent of these troops retain their “special” skill levels. That does not exempt them from the electricity shortages and the knowledge that the rest of the military, and most North Koreans in general are in worse shape.
> 
> The decline has been going on for some time. In 2010 the government began providing special food bonuses for their secret police and special operations troops. The latter force has been increased from 120,000 to 200,000 since 2004, These elite troops have to be well fed, and kept loyal, to be effective. The rest of the military began getting less food from government supplies and were ordered to spend more time farming or being rented out to commercial firms. Foreign food donors noted that the hungriest North Koreans were not getting a lot of the food aid sent. Much of it was diverted to the military or sold to raise cash for the government. The donors understood that the North Korean government, as a communist police state, would look after its own interests first and make sure the security forces were fed first. That was one of the reasons less free food aid was offered to North Korea.
> 
> The young (about 30 then) Kim Jong Un took power in 2011 and by 2016 he understood that the “starve the many to fatten the few” strategy was a rational response to an unpleasant reality. Kim Jong Un saw the situation with fresh eyes and it was obvious that conventional North Korean forces were now no match for the South Korean army, even though North Korea had 50 percent more troops. South Korea had been upgrading its forces since the 1990s, often with modern weapons now built in South Korea and increasingly exported. In contrast the North Korean economy and military budget had been in decline since the early 1990s when over four decades of Russian subsidies of cash, food and cheap military equipment ended. Leaders during the 1990s through 2010 refused to fully appreciate the degree to which the situation had changed. Kim Jong Un did and he began making obvious and long overdue, changes Nukes and special operations forces were all North Korea could pay for and these weapons would not win a war, but they would make it easier to extort free food and other aid from neighbors. So far this is not working but Kim Jong Un apparently sees no other choice. By 2020 the special operations force was facing more and more cuts and only the missile and nuclear units and development programs are well cared for.



The rest of the article at the link is interesting as well.


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## CBH99

Thucydides said:
			
		

> A long article on the deterioration of the DPRK's military capabilities. Instead of just "rust out" like we face, the troops are malnourished and essentially live off plundering nearby civilians, while the regime uses a "starve the many to feed the few" strategy to shore up it's Special Forces and nuclear capabilities, although even the Special Forces are declining in quality and utility:
> 
> https://strategypage.com/qnd/korea/articles/20201103.aspx
> 
> The rest of the article at the link is interesting as well.




About a year ago, I watched a video on Youtube of Chinese tourists taking river tours throughout the northern parts of North Korea.  I'll search for it later, but I doubt I'll find it again.

In various parts of the North Korean & Chinese border, guided tours are available.  My understanding is they are mostly river tours, with the odd land stop to see landmarks, eat, and 'tourist trap' type of stuff.


Throughout the video you see quite a few members and what I would call 'sub units' of North Korean soldiers.  It's creepy.  They look like extremely malnourished ghosts of WW2 soldiers.  Extremely thin and obviously malnourished, with ill-fitting long jackets and in some cases what looked like bolt-action rifles.    


While the massive amounts of artillery pointed south over the border will absolutely devastate Seoul, and there will be unique challenges to deal with in regards to their rocket/nuclear forces, and potentially some submarine challenges (doubtful) -- just from looking at the soldiers themselves, I can't imagine they won't surrender en-masse within the first few days.

Once they see M1A3 tanks, Super Hornets, Strykers, and the high-tech modern American or South Korean soldier... it'll be like fighting robocop with a cap gun.


While most North Koreans are brought up being brainwashed about the virtues of their society and their leadership, I can't imagine the soldiers near the borders still drink the cool-aid.  





I quite enjoyed this lovely young lady's video about growing up in North Korea.  Worth a watch   :2c:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=afqaRpYPkFw


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## YZT580

Of possibly greater importance in the event of conflict north/south, how many battalions does China maintain on the border and what is their specialities?  Because those will be the folks that South Korea faces after the first few days.


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## CBH99

YZT580 said:
			
		

> Of possibly greater importance in the event of conflict north/south, how many battalions does China maintain on the border and what is their specialities?  Because those will be the folks that South Korea faces after the first few days.




Very good point indeed


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## Edward Campbell

YZT580 said:
			
		

> Of possibly greater importance in the event of conflict north/south, how many battalions does China maintain on the border and what is their specialities?  Because those will be the folks that South Korea faces after the first few days.


But, _*economically*_, South Korea is far, far more important to China than is North Korea. Before Xi Jinping _I believe_ that the prevailing view in Beijing was that North Korea could be, even should be sacrificed, as a pawn, to get the US ~ a rook, plus a bishop, at least ~ off the board, the board being the Korean peninsula.


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