# Belarus Instability - August 2020



## GR66 (3 Aug 2020)

The BBC is reporting that 33 Russian military contractors have been arrested in Belarus amid concerns that they might be part of a larger group attempting to influence the upcoming elections.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53592854

Meanwhile Defence Blog is reporting that Belarus is sending troops to reinforce their border with Russia in order to prevent a Donbass-style intervention.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53592854

Appears to be a somewhat confusing situation as Belarus has been a close ally of Russia and their militaries conduct joint exercises.  Will be interesting to see what develops.


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## Ostrozac (3 Aug 2020)

GR66 said:
			
		

> Appears to be a somewhat confusing situation as Belarus has been a close ally of Russia and their militaries conduct joint exercises.  Will be interesting to see what develops.



Those close ties with Russia were under the current President - who has held power since 1994. He is currently facing a protest movement and an upcoming Presidential election. Such elections were usually undemocratic formalities that rubber-stamped his regime, but Russia may now have some concerns that they are on the brink of losing an ally/buffer state.


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## GR66 (3 Aug 2020)

Ostrozac said:
			
		

> Those close ties with Russia were under the current President - who has held power since 1994. He is currently facing a protest movement and an upcoming Presidential election. Such elections were usually undemocratic formalities that rubber-stamped his regime, but Russia may now have some concerns that they are on the brink of losing an ally/buffer state.



Agreed, but there is some suggestion in the article that Wagner was possibly working FOR the opposition and it's the current President, Lukashenko, that appears to be suggesting that it's Russia trying to destabilize the country.  You'd think Putin would want to prop up his old ally rather than support a protest candidate.


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## Ostrozac (3 Aug 2020)

GR66 said:
			
		

> Agreed, but there is some suggestion in the article that Wagner was possibly working FOR the opposition and it's the current President, Lukashenko, that appears to be suggesting that it's Russia trying to destabilize the country.  You'd think Putin would want to prop up his old ally rather than support a protest candidate.


Russia may have already assessed that their old buddy is done and hung him out to dry, and now they are trying to make sure that the ‘right’ opposition takes power, rather than some faction they disagree with.

Or it’s something else. Riddles within enigmas and all that.


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## Furniture (3 Aug 2020)

Ostrozac said:
			
		

> Russia may have already assessed that their old buddy is done and hung him out to dry, and now they are trying to make sure that the ‘right’ opposition takes power, rather than some faction they disagree with.
> 
> Or it’s something else. Riddles within enigmas and all that.



I was thinking much the same, though I'd also argue it could just be that Russia doesn't want more civil war/unrest on their border, giving another reason for the West to meddle in it's sphere of influence.


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## FJAG (3 Aug 2020)

The situation has been deteriorating since the Ukraine situation. Belarus has strong feelings of independence from Russia but is economically dependent on it.

This is a nice summary from last February.

 :cheers:


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## Colin Parkinson (3 Aug 2020)

keeping Belarus within the Russian sphere means that an army would only have to transit a 124km of hostile land to reach the borders of Kaliningrad


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## The Bread Guy (9 Aug 2020)

Some rumblings as voting kicks off today (Sunday)?

_*"Belarus election: President Lukashenko faces toughest test in years"*_ (BBC)
_*"Belarus 5-Term President Faces Strong Challenge"*_ (Voice of America)
_*"Belarus President Lukashenko slams Moscow 'lies' as row with Russia escalates"*_ (Deutsche Welle)
_*"Russia deploys tanks to Belarus’ border amid unprecedented escalation of tensions"*_ (defence-blog.com)
_*"Troops spotted heading into Belarus capital Minsk"*_ (defence-blog.com)
op:


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## Flanker (9 Aug 2020)

"Russia deploys tanks to Belarus’ border amid unprecedented escalation of tensions" (defence-blog.com)

The title is highly misleading at least and sources are missing.
As for voa and dw, why comment state-paid propaganda?


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## Kat Stevens (9 Aug 2020)

Did anyone happen to watch the last season of Berlin Station? Life imitating art all over the place.


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## MilEME09 (9 Aug 2020)

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-military-units-police-crack-down-on-protests-in-belarus-amid-hotly/

Ready for Ukraine 2.0?


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## stellarpanther (10 Aug 2020)

The election panel in Belarus is saying the current President has won a 6th term.  Either way, whatever happens, we should mind our own business and stay out of it.


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## MilEME09 (10 Aug 2020)

stellarpanther said:
			
		

> The election panel in Belarus is saying the current President has won a 6th term.  Either way, whatever happens, we should mind our own business and stay out of it.



I believe that he won as much as I believe Justin Trudeau wouldn't violate ethics rules again.


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## stellarpanther (10 Aug 2020)

;D ;D





			
				MilEME09 said:
			
		

> I believe that he won as much as I believe Justin Trudeau wouldn't violate ethics rules again.


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## stellarpanther (10 Aug 2020)

MilEME09 said:
			
		

> I believe that he won as much as I believe Justin Trudeau wouldn't violate ethics rules again.



I don't trust any politician, regardless of their party.


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## stellarpanther (10 Aug 2020)

Both are sides claiming victory, this might get interesting.  I'm curious what the current President did to ticked off Russia because they seemed to be allies up until recently.  I'm watching to see if Russia will send those troops they currently have on exercise on the border for the past 5 days into Belarus to back the opposition leader.  

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53721410


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## MilEME09 (11 Aug 2020)

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/belarusian-opposition-leader-flees-1.5681664?fbclid=IwAR1DvY0G1fbHayuiVAE80OBW6H0TBmYASTGZa1uytuOOCKnveMaAeBnSVZ4

Well this keeps getting more interesting


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## MilEME09 (14 Aug 2020)

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/14/europe/belarus-protests-riot-police-intl/index.html?utm_content=2020-08-14T23%3A01%3A14&utm_term=link&utm_medium=social&utm_source=fbCNN&fbclid=IwAR1gHDo5Uipz9sFxuqFa59kVmV-jStnC6v9kKxHf1Ue5rJRPtcbsmNiUBH8

And now the tipping point, police and military officers refusing orders from Minsk and joining protestors.


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## The Bread Guy (15 Aug 2020)

Stand by for #PoliteGreenMen ? ....


> A Russian hybrid intervention into Belarus to support Belarussian president Lukashenko is likely imminent. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko had a phone call on August 15 to discuss the situation in Belarus. Putin thanked Lukashenko for returning 32 detained Wagner personnel on August 14. The Kremlin’s readout of the call stated “all problems that have arisen will be resolved soon” and characterized the protests as “destructive forces” trying to harm the Union State.[1] A Kremlin intervention would likely consist of Russian forces in unmarked uniforms supporting crackdowns on protesters. The Kremlin has not previously characterized the protests in Belarus as destructive. Kremlin-linked media outlets reported neutrally and slightly sympathetically towards protests in Belarus as of August 14.
> 
> The Union State is a supranational organization between Belarus and Russia. The Kremlin has been working to strengthen the Union State as a way to regain dominance over Belarus and integrate the Belarussian and Russian militaries.  Success in that endeavor could allow Russian military forces to be stationed directly on the Polish border and in vital locations threatening NATO’s ability to defend the Baltic States.
> 
> ...


Footnote links @ linked article


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## The Bread Guy (16 Aug 2020)

Some tidbits ...

_*"Belarus president says Putin ready to help 'ensure security'"*_ (Al Jazeera)
_"*Lukashenko says Russia will provide assistance in ensuring Belarus’ security* - According to President of Belarus, the agreement was reached during a telephone conversation with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on Saturday ..."_ (RUS state media)
_*"Belarus's leader pleads for Putin's help as post-election protests grow "*_ (_The Guardian_)
_*"Belarus' Lukashenko: air assault brigade will move to Belarus' Western border"*_ (Reuters)
_*"Warning: Belarusian President Lukashenko Reaches Agreement with the Kremlin for Russian Intervention "*_ (ISW Blog)


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## FJAG (17 Aug 2020)

Things are heating up:



> Vladimir Putin threatens to intervene in Belarus to support 'Europe's last dictator' Viktor Lukashenko as 200,000 people pour onto the streets protesting his 'rigged' reelection
> - People called poured onto streets of Belarus calling for President's resignation
> - President Viktor Lukashenko launched a brutal crackdown after claiming victory
> - Now Kremlin is looking at using a joint defence treaty with Belarus to intervene
> ...



https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8633931/Hundreds-demonstrators-pour-streets-Belarus.html

 :worms:


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## The Bread Guy (17 Aug 2020)

Some of the latest ....

_*"Re-election in Belarus out of question, Lukashenko says "*_ (RUS state media)
_*BLR Pres:  “I stand here like before God. The election took place. There cannot be more than 80% of falsifications. This is impossible! We are being offered to hold a new election. If we step into this swamp, we will never get out. They want to destroy us with this, they want to weaken us. Who will hold this election? Who will run?”*_ (BLR state media)
_*"Lukashenko: Belarus must not become a sanitary zone between East and West"*_ (BLR state media)
_*"NATO rejects claim that it’s positioning forces near Belarus borders"*_ (_Stars & Stripes_)
_*"Lithuania Says Russian Military Help in Belarus Would Mean 'An Invasion' "*_ (Reuters, via U.S. News & World Report)
_*"Lithuania says will not react to Belarus troop movements"*_ (Reuters via news18.com)
_"*No lethal weapons used by Belarusian police to disperse protesters - interior minister* - When asked about the death of a protester, Belarusian Interior Minister Yuri Karayev said he was not an investigator ..."_ (RUS state media)
_*"Belarus' Internal Affairs Ministry pledges to investigate cases of police abuse of power"*_ (BLR state media)


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## MilEME09 (17 Aug 2020)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-53796436?at_campaign=64&at_custom1=%5Bpost+type%5D&at_medium=custom7&at_custom4=8B400694-E06D-11EA-A27E-36C096E8478F&at_custom3=BBC+News&at_custom2=facebook_page&fbclid=IwAR25Az3f9vkWYuk7O6I5cRFmtpakM5tKFNjAJvwDT4u89dbDuSRUqs0uHHQ


-State TV employees walked off the job to protest censorship and the vote 

-200,000 protestors marched in the capital

- at a pro government rally, some said they were forced to attend or loose their jobs.


If this goes pear shaped, you bet your ass Russia will roll the tanks in to keep their last buffer state. That said the protests are not pro or anti Russian, they are anti Lukashenko. 

Lukashenko has made comments that suggest the only way he will give up power, is if he is dead. Unless he backs down, the risk of the situation escalating is very high, if we see on mass defection of the police and military Lukashenko is done. If russian state tv turns on Lukashenko, he will be gone in a week.


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## Donald H (17 Aug 2020)

The latest: https://www.rt.com/news/498219-lukashenko-new-elections-belarus-constitution/

Lukashenko promises a new election after a new constitution is  adopted.

This could be his attempt t stall things for a while. Otherwise, I don't quite understand his intent. Maybe somebody else does?


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## Old Sweat (17 Aug 2020)

It probably is a stall, along with a combination of desperation and self-preservation. He probably is hoping the  cossacks arrive in time to put down an insurrection.


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## Donald H (17 Aug 2020)

Old Sweat said:
			
		

> It probably is a stall, along with a combination of desperation and self-preservation. He probably is hoping the  cossacks arrive in time to put down an insurrection.



Yeah, I would agree Old Sweat, but the wild card this time is in Putin not showing complete support for Lukashenko. So now we need to look for that support to develop over time. Or not?


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## FJAG (17 Aug 2020)

Donald H said:
			
		

> Yeah, I would agree Old Sweat, but the wild card this time is in Putin not showing complete support for Lukashenko. So now we need to look for that support to develop over time. Or not?



One has to remember that Lukashenko has been playing a tight game with the Russians for some time. On the one hand he's absolutely dependent on Russia to prop up Belarus's weak economy while on the other he's been trying to stay as independent as possible from Russia's political control to the point of becoming very cool to the Kremlin after the Ukraine issues.

If I was to take a wild guess, I would think Putin may be looking for someone else in Belarus who is more overtly Russia friendly while at the same time popular enough to keep the public on board.

 :cheers:


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## MilEME09 (17 Aug 2020)

I agree, Putting may get cozy with the opposition in order to keep the next government in his pocket, then remove Europes last dictator.


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## Donald H (17 Aug 2020)

FJAG said:
			
		

> One has to remember that Lukashenko has been playing a tight game with the Russians for some time. On the one hand he's absolutely dependent on Russia to prop up Belarus's weak economy while on the other he's been trying to stay as independent as possible from Russia's political control to the point of becoming very cool to the Kremlin after the Ukraine issues.
> 
> If I was to take a wild guess, I would think Putin may be looking for someone else in Belarus who is more overtly Russia friendly while at the same time popular enough to keep the public on board.
> 
> :cheers:



Good analysis IMO FJAG, and so now we'll have to wait to see if  Viktar Babaryka is in Putin's pocket or Nato's pocket. Or maybe neither?

Viktar was btw, the most popular candidate before he was jailed for (treasonous activity?) I think.


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## CBH99 (17 Aug 2020)

Being friends with Putin really is a tightrope walk of death, isn't it?

On his good side?  You get military goods, Russian support for your economy, and I'd presume the odd hangout on his yacht with some very pretty ladies who seem oddly attracted to you.


Not on his good side?  Nice knowing ya mate.


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## Donald H (18 Aug 2020)

CBH99 said:
			
		

> Being friends with Putin really is a tightrope walk of death, isn't it?
> 
> On his good side?  You get military goods, Russian support for your economy, and I'd presume the odd hangout on his yacht with some very pretty ladies who seem oddly attracted to you.
> 
> ...



Yes, that's exactly how it works and the yacht could be a hotel room in Moscow with the pretty ladies. But the point  this time is the question of whether Putin was trying to make friends with Yakushenko?

If you have the answer, can you expand on it to clear up the mystery?


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## The Bread Guy (18 Aug 2020)

A bit more ...


> Russian President Vladimir Putin warned European leaders to stay out of the Belarus crisis on August 18 to consolidate Russian management of the situation. French President Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel discussed Belarus with Putin in separate calls the morning of August 18.[1] Putin warned both leaders that Russia would not accept any “external attempts” to interfere in Belarus or pressure Lukashenko. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov additionally called German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas and reiterated similar talking points.[2] The Kremlin will attempt to dominate likely negotiations over a potential transition government in Belarus and block any European involvement.
> 
> An opposition leader speaking on behalf of Sviatlana Tikhanouskaya softened anti-Russian rhetoric and offered to work with the Kremlin on August 18. Opposition representative Maria Kolesnikova gave an interview to Russian radio station Echo of Moscow on August 18, expressing Tikanouskaya’s willingness to work with the Kremlin.[3] “Volunteers” attempting to diffuse protests the night of August 17 initially attempted to contact Kolesnikova, who is a representative of Tikanouskaya and associate of likely Kremlin-linked Belarusian opposition figure Viktor Babariko. Kolesnikova questioned Lukashenko’s willingness to enter serious negotiations on a new government before she emphasized that Russia is a reliable partner. Kolesnikova stated “Russia is an important foreign policy and economic partner for [Belarus]” and promised the opposition would respect “all existing agreements,” contradicting Tikanouskaya’s previous statements that she would reverse Belarusian integration with Russia under the Union State framework.[4] Kolesnikova further stated Lukashenko’s tensions with Russia demonstrated his unsuitability to lead Belarus and promised the opposition is ready to “build mutually beneficial relations” with Russia.
> 
> ...


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## GR66 (18 Aug 2020)

Defence Blog is reporting that unmarked military vehicles are moving into Belarus from Russia.

https://defence-blog.com/news/army/hybrid-intervention-russia-sent-unmarked-military-columns-to-belarus.html

Things could get ugly if there is popular resistance to the government and the Russian "little green men".


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## Colin Parkinson (18 Aug 2020)

It's "tourist season" in Belarus


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## MilEME09 (19 Aug 2020)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/08/18/risks-russian-intervention-belarus/

While this seems a potential extreme, if this went pear shaped, NATO will likely get caught flat footed due to politics.


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## Good2Golf (19 Aug 2020)

GR66 said:
			
		

> Things could get ugly if there is popular resistance to the government and the Russian "little green men".



...are those the equivalent to America’s “little multicam men”?


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## Donald H (19 Aug 2020)

MilEME09 said:
			
		

> https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/08/18/risks-russian-intervention-belarus/
> 
> While this seems a potential extreme, if this went pear shaped, NATO will likely get caught flat footed due to politics.



One of the great values in having Trump as their president is that Trump and Putin can sort out their differences over the phone. Something that Biden would never attempt to do.

If the situation worsens then this issue could become a big part of the US election politics.


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## MilEME09 (19 Aug 2020)

https://calgaryherald.com/pmn/news-pmn/crime-pmn/belarusian-leader-orders-police-to-put-down-protests/wcm/69234e89-4e06-4cba-9bdf-2bdcebdead44?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR3wvuTT09nbVqm999OJEhJQPqn4qPRijk6LTsSH07EfInajF121Po67jlA#Echobox=1597847570


Well this is going to be a blood bath


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## The Bread Guy (21 Aug 2020)

Seeding the media landscape via BLR state media BelTA...

_*"Preserving the Russian market as a priority market is an important task, but Belarus will continue to actively explore other markets, Belarus' Prime Minister Roman Golovchenko said in an interview to ONT TV channel, BelTA has learned ..."*_
_*"Nobody questions Belarus' sovereignty, this is never discussed by the Belarusian and Russian leadership, Belarus' Prime Minister Roman Golovchenko said in an interview with the ONT TV channel ..."*_
_*"The true purpose of the unrest and events going on in Belarus is to fully sever the country's ties with Russia, BelTA learned from Sergei Markov, Director of the Political Studies Institute, a prominent Russian expert and politician ...  Markov is convinced that the alternative scenario of Belarus' development will negate the nation's accomplishments in the victory over the Nazi. 9 May will no longer be celebrated, he predicts. Monuments to Soviet Army heroes, who fought against the Nazi invaders, and monuments to Belarusian partisans are likely to be demolished ..."*_
Meanwhile, in the western bits of Belarus ...

_*"While in the strategic command and control center Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin heard out proposals of officials concerning the organization of combat training events. He gave instructions to organize a tactical exercise to allow army units to practice the defense of the Grodno tactical direction, BelTA learned from the Belarusian Defense Ministry's Telegram channel ..."*_ (BLR state media)
_*"The Belarusian army will hold large-scale drills under the direction of the Western Operational Command’s chief on August 28-31, the republic’s Defense Ministry reported on Friday.  "An integrated grouping of forces has been set up to hold a comprehensive tactical exercise. It comprises Airborne Force, motor rifle, armored and artillery units and also the squads of unmanned aerial vehicles and electronic warfare systems," the Defense Ministry said.  Helicopters will redeploy from the Machulishchi aerodrome in the Minsk Region to the Lida airfield in the Grodno Region to provide support for the troops’ operations ..."*_
*Google Map of Grorno/Hrodna Region* (bordering Lithuania & Poland, with Kaliningrad not toooooooooo far away) - screen capture also attached
A.K.A., the Suwalki Gap - more - more
Possible message to NATO:  don't even _think_ about it?  op:


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## OldSolduer (21 Aug 2020)

Poland should be concerned. The big Russian bear might be on the march.


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## stellarpanther (21 Aug 2020)

Hamish Seggie said:
			
		

> Poland should be concerned. The big Russian bear might be on the march.



Is this just an opinion or have you seen something that show's Russia has begun mobilizing troops on the Polish border?  As I've said before, Russia will not attack a NATO country knowing it will bring  response from all of NATO.  That said, I don't think the west should attempt to back them into a corner and provoke them either.


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## OldSolduer (21 Aug 2020)

stellarpanther said:
			
		

> Is this just an opinion or have you seen something that show's Russia has begun mobilizing troops on the Polish border?  As I've said before, Russia will not attack a NATO country knowing it will bring  response from all of NATO.  That said, I don't think the west should attempt to back them into a corner and provoke them either.



So you have a neighbour that's known as a bully and you've made a pact with other neighbours to keep this guy at bay, but they are a bit "waffly" on the agreement. And you neighbour has been known to punch the others in the nose occasionally, thus making them a bit "waffly".

I don't think Russia will attack Poland but maybe that's not what the Poles think.


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## FJAG (21 Aug 2020)

Hamish Seggie said:
			
		

> So you have a neighbour that's known as a bully and you've made a pact with other neighbours to keep this guy at bay, but they are a bit "waffly" on the agreement. And you neighbour has been known to punch the others in the nose occasionally, thus making them a bit "waffly".
> 
> I don't think Russia will attack Poland but maybe that's not what the Poles think.



Russia invaded Poland three times in the last century - once in 1919/20 and again in 1939. When they came back in after driving the Germans out in the mid 1940s, they ended up hiving off large parts of Poland and not leaving for some 50 years until the 1990s. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish%E2%80%93Soviet_War

One can see where the Poles might be a bit twitchy.

 :cheers:


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## Donald H (21 Aug 2020)

FJAG said:
			
		

> Russia invaded Poland three times in the last century - once in 1919/20 and again in 1939. When they came back in after driving the Germans out in the mid 1940s, they ended up hiving off large parts of Poland and not leaving for some 50 years until the 1990s. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish%E2%80%93Soviet_War
> 
> One can see where the Poles might be a bit twitchy.
> 
> :cheers:



So true, but they did leave Poland.

I have a new idea for this topic:

The Russians, not the Soviets, have no intention of invading any country and occupying it. Especiallly not a Nato one because of 'an injury to one,................', etc.
And it's likely that the status quo could have continued to exist in the Crimea if Russia's hand hadn't been pushed to the point of them having to give up their naval base on the Black Sea. 

However, that issue would require a new thread, if one doesn't exist already.  And for now I won't follow you any further off-topic with Poland/Russia contemplation.


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## suffolkowner (21 Aug 2020)

FJAG said:
			
		

> Russia invaded Poland three times in the last century - once in 1919/20 and again in 1939. When they came back in after driving the Germans out in the mid 1940s, they ended up hiving off large parts of Poland and not leaving for some 50 years until the 1990s. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish%E2%80%93Soviet_War
> 
> One can see where the Poles might be a bit twitchy.
> 
> :cheers:



All the Poles that I know(these are or were older individuals) hated the Russians with a passion orders of magnitude greater than anything expressed to the Germans


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## FJAG (21 Aug 2020)

Donald H said:
			
		

> So true, but they did leave Poland.
> 
> I have a new idea for this topic:
> 
> ...



The Russian leadership will do anything that they think that they will be able to get away with. They've done it over and over again and will not hesitate to push the envelop if it is their interest.

Have a read of this

What makes you think that they were "pushed" into giving up their naval base on the Black Sea. Russia and the Ukraine entered into several agreements whereby the Black Sea Fleet was split and based. During the post Soviet era that fleet deteriorated significantly because of lack of funding. The leasing of facilities for the Russians to use in Sevastopol were extended until 2042 with an additional five-year option. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Sea_Fleet While there was some dispute as to whether or not the extensions signed by the pro-Russian Yanukovych, there was no move by the new Ukrainian regime to oust the Russians who under the old treaties could have stayed until 2017 anyway. Russia's actions had much more to do with the Ukraine's recent more favourable view to engaging in economic relationships with the EU.

The discussions about Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Georgia, Poland and the Ukraine are clearly on-topic when discussing Belarus as it shows a pattern of behaviour by Russia that should be of concern to all former Soviet block countries.

 :cheers:


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## The Bread Guy (21 Aug 2020)

Donald H said:
			
		

> ... they did leave Poland.


They left Ukraine a while back, too, yet here we are 



			
				stellarpanther said:
			
		

> ... Russia will not attack a NATO country knowing it will bring  response from all of NATO ...





			
				Donald H said:
			
		

> ... The Russians, not the Soviets****, have no intention of invading any country and occupying it. Especiallly not a Nato one because of 'an injury to one,................', etc.


Well, one can be forgiven if one of the founding NATO members can be seen, off and on, as less than fully supportive, right?  True, that ship may have changed course, but any level of doubt is all that's needed to sow more doubt - and uncertainty.  And if anyone has a firmer statement of #POTUS45 saying they'll come to bat if needed against the Russians, I'll be happy to be corrected.

Meanwhile, lines in the sand?


> *Warning: Moscow Sets Conditions for Kinetic Intervention in Belarus Through New Information Operation*
> 
> (...)
> 
> ...


**** - Yeah, I know they're different countries, but some of the history leads one to believe the DNA's still pretty related.  Besides, if they really wanted to shake the USSR's legacy, they could have passed on the USSR's permanent seat at the Security Council, nyet?


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## OldSolduer (21 Aug 2020)

We have the luxury of never being invaded by large foreign bully nations.


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## MilEME09 (21 Aug 2020)

Make no mistake, sunday will be bloody, the question is, will security forces defect on mass, if they do we could see Russian forces take their place. In which case public opinion could turn against Russia for supporting a corrupt dictatorship.


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## Donald H (21 Aug 2020)

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Well, one can be forgiven if one of the founding NATO members can be seen, off and on, as less than fully supportive, right?  True, that ship may have changed course, but any level of doubt is all that's needed to sow more doubt - and uncertainty.  And if anyone has a firmer statement of #POTUS45 saying they'll come to bat if needed against the Russians, I'll be happy to be corrected.



I didn't want to just assume that a discussion on the Crimea/Ukraine would be considered on-topic here but I see that question has been cleared up now.

To address your link on Trump's position early on as regards Nato participation by the US. I would put that down to him being completely out of touch with reality and not understanding how valuable Nato is to the US. And then his turnaround after he was informed where had to eat crow over that mistake. And it wasn't just that one time that he threatened withdrawal of the US from Nato, and the UN as well. 
However, I may be able to defer to a better theory if you have one?

Trump has taken some curious positions which deserve some analysis. Not only did he fail to buy into the 'bounty of Americans' issue with the Dems who are screaming bloody murder over it, just today he's remaining silent on the 'Navalny' conspiracy. Or 'conspiracy theory',  depending on which side a person takes on their politics.


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## Donald H (21 Aug 2020)

FJAG said:
			
		

> The Russian leadership will do anything that they think that they will be able to get away with. They've done it over and over again and will not hesitate to push the envelop if it is their interest.
> 
> Have a read of this
> 
> ...



You mentioned older Polish people siding with Germans as opposed to Russians. I find that very curious if you're not talking about people who chose to stay in Poland. The older Polish people who came to Canada, 70 to 80 or so, are very adamant on their hate of Russia and Russian (the S.U.) because they were escaping communism.

One Polish Canadian I know who lived right next door to Auschwitz-Birkenau is outspoken about his dislike of Russia and Russians. Although it's worth mentioning that he's married to a German woman.


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## FJAG (22 Aug 2020)

Donald H said:
			
		

> You mentioned older Polish people siding with Germans as opposed to Russians. I find that very curious if you're not talking about people who chose to stay in Poland. The older Polish people who came to Canada, 70 to 80 or so, are very adamant on their hate of Russia and Russian (the S.U.) because they were escaping communism.
> 
> One Polish Canadian I know who lived right next door to Auschwitz-Birkenau is outspoken about his dislike of Russia and Russians. Although it's worth mentioning that he's married to a German woman.



That wasn't me, that was Suffolkowner who said that. 

It just so happens that I was born German with a father from Berlin and a mother who came from a part of East Prussia that is now a part of Poland. My mom's family's answer to the Soviets was to vote with their feet and go west in 1945. I personally know no Poles (other than the odd Polish-Canadian from Toronto when I was growing up there as a teen) and wouldn't presume to speak for them.

 :cheers:


----------



## The Bread Guy (22 Aug 2020)

Donald H said:
			
		

> ... To address your link on Trump's position early on as regards Nato participation by the US. I would put that down to him being completely out of touch with reality and not understanding how valuable Nato is to the US. And then his turnaround after he was informed where had to eat crow over that mistake. And it wasn't just that one time that he threatened withdrawal of the US from Nato, and the UN as well.
> However, I may be able to defer to a better theory if you have one?


I'm actually good with this theory in a glass-is-half-full way - you hope people can learn, especially those with that level of influence/power, right?  The glass-is-half-empty part of me, though, has seen Trump take too many (what look to me like) from-the-hip positions that counter earlier statements, or those of others in the administration, to be less than fully confident right now.


			
				MilEME09 said:
			
		

> Make no mistake, sunday will be bloody, the question is, will security forces defect on mass, if they do we could see Russian forces take their place. In which case public opinion could turn against Russia for supporting a corrupt dictatorship.


Any chance of a "Poland Before Solidarity Rule" solution here?  

VERY rough comparison, but in both countries (Belarus now, Poland in the early 1980's), you have leaders who may not be as anti-Big Neighbour as they could be if they wanted even a modicum of independence, but not without some anti-Big Neighbour sentiment.  

I'd put Poland's dial @ a pro-Western setting in that period, while I see Belarus' dial more at a "we don't want to be part of Russia, but we're not inclined to join NATO, either" spot.  

If Lukashenko's own forces do enough of the dirty work, might it keep the Big Neighbour out?


----------



## The Bread Guy (22 Aug 2020)

Meanwhile, tidbits from RUS state media ....

_*"The Canadian government is considering all options to support the Belarusian people in their determination to hold new presidential elections, Canadian Foreign Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne wrote on Twitter* on Friday ..."*_
_*"(RUS ForMin) Lavrov tells Swedish top diplomat unacceptable to impose mediation on Belarus"*_
_*"Lukashenko affirms Putin has mutual understanding of situation in Belarus* - He pointed out that "the Belarusian issue is no less important for Russia than it is for Belarus" ..."_

... and BLR state media

_*"Call on international community to respect sovereign choice of Belarusian people"*_
_*"Moscow residents held a rally to show support for Belarus in front of the Belarusian embassy in Moscow on 21 August, BelTA has learned.*  Participants of the rally formed a human chain. They were wearing white T-shirts with the images of the Belarusian flag, Aleksandr Lukashenko's portrait, and the slogan “For Lukashenko! For brotherly Belarus!” and waving red-and-green flags with the Belarusian emblem ..."_
_*"While talking to the staff of Agrokombinat Dzerzhinsky on 21 August, Belarus President Aleksandr Lukashenko commented on the developments in and around Belarus and the role of Western states in them ..."*_
_*"By severing integration ties with Russia, quitting the Eurasian Economic Union and the Union State, Belarus will head towards, like Ukraine, industrial collapse, political columnist Vladimir Kornilov said in an interview with BelTA.* Vladimir Kornilov previously headed the Ukrainian branch of the CIS Institute and witnessed the events of the Kiev Maidan ..."_

*** - Tweets attached


----------



## Donald H (22 Aug 2020)

FJAG said:
			
		

> That wasn't me, that was Suffolkowner who said that.
> 
> It just so happens that I was born German with a father from Berlin and a mother who came from a part of East Prussia that is now a part of Poland. My mom's family's answer to the Soviets was to vote with their feet and go west in 1945. I personally know no Poles (other than the odd Polish-Canadian from Toronto when I was growing up there as a teen) and wouldn't presume to speak for them.
> 
> :cheers:


sorry for the mistaken identity.


----------



## The Bread Guy (23 Aug 2020)

MilEME09 said:
			
		

> ... will security forces defect on mass, if they do we could see Russian forces take their place ...


Not quite en masse, but not zero, either - time will tell.


			
				MilEME09 said:
			
		

> ... In which case public opinion could turn against Russia for supporting a corrupt dictatorship.


op:

Meanwhile, some of the latest ...

_*"Warning: Lukashenko Mobilizes Military to Western Border as Local Protest Organization Emerges "*_ (Institute for the Study of War)
_*"Lukashenko orders military to react without warning to violations of western border "*_ (RUS state media)
_*"Belarus: Nato denies foreign troops are on border"*_ (BBC)
_*"In case of violation of order and peace in the sacred places, the protesters will have to deal with the army, Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin said ..."*_ (BLR state media, in Russian)
_*"Lukashenko gives law enforcement agencies two days to restore order in Belarus"*_ (RUS state media)
_*"The opening ceremony of the sixth International Army Games in Belarus was held today in the memorial complex "Brest Fortress-Hero"* ... Representatives of seven countries - Belarus, Armenia, Vietnam, *Russia****, Serbia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan - are participating in ARMI-2020 ..."_ (BLR state media, in Russian)  
_*"AP Explains: Why revolt in Belarus is different from Ukraine"*_ (Associated Press)
*** - - Wonder if they're _all_ accounted for taking part in _all_ the events?


----------



## suffolkowner (23 Aug 2020)

Donald H said:
			
		

> You mentioned older Polish people siding with Germans as opposed to Russians. I find that very curious if you're not talking about people who chose to stay in Poland. The older Polish people who came to Canada, 70 to 80 or so, are very adamant on their hate of Russia and Russian (the S.U.) because they were escaping communism.
> 
> One Polish Canadian I know who lived right next door to Auschwitz-Birkenau is outspoken about his dislike of Russia and Russians. Although it's worth mentioning that he's married to a German woman.



I think we're saying the same thing here? I'm not suggesting that I'm speaking for all Eastern Europeans, just the half dozen or so neighbours and friends that I've had. These are individuals that either came here as children after the war or the parents/grandparents came in from after WW1 to after WW2. A couple are coming by today to fire off a couple rounds and talk about moose hunting, Trudeau and I'm sure the situation in Belarus will come up too ;D


----------



## The Bread Guy (24 Aug 2020)

Tidbits from the various info-machines ....

_*"Lukashenko: Army will protect Belarus from external threats"*_ (BLR state media)
_*"Lukashenko condemns attempts to bully police"*_ (BLR state media)
_*"Lukashenko: They are rocking the boat in Belarus first to take on Russia afterwards"*_ (BLR state media)
_*"There is a lot of fake news about the current situation in Belarus, especially the actions of the riot police, Belarus President Aleksandr Lukashenko said as he attended a rally in Grodno on 22 August ..."*_ (BLR state media)
_*"The Belarusian Defense Ministry has prevented balloons with anti-government symbols, launched from Lithuania, from illegitimately crossing into the country’s airspace, the ministry said in a statement on Telegram on Monday ..."*_ (RUS state media)
_*"Two members of Belarus’ opposition coordination council, Olga Kovalkova and Sergei Dylevsky, were detained on Monday on charges of organizing an unauthorized rally, as follows from a post on Kovalkova’s Facebook account ..."*_ (RUS state media)
... and from MSM ...

_*"Belarus protests continue despite crackdown"*_ (BBC)
_*"Lukashenko seen with rifle as thousands of Belarusians take to the streets in protest"*_ (_The Telegraph_)
_*"Lukashenko watches from helicopter as tens of thousands protest in Minsk"*_ (Irish Times)
_*"Belarus protests grow: More than 200,000 rally in central Minsk"*_ (Al Jazeera English)
More of the latest here.


----------



## The Bread Guy (25 Aug 2020)

Some of the latest ....

_*"Belarus Moblizes Reservists As Police Round Up Opposition Activists"*_ (Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, USA-funded media)
_*"Belarus’ Defense Ministry informs foreign military attaches about army drills"*_ (RUS state media)
_*"Kremlin Refuses to Comment on Lukashenko's Appearance With Assault Rifle Near Presidential Palace"*_ (RIA Novosti, RUS state media)
_*"Ukrainian journalist: Any color revolution starts with a peaceful protest"*_ (BLR state media)
_*"Ukraine's MFA explains fundamental difference between Revolution of Dignity in Ukraine, protests in Belarus"*_ (UKR media)
_*"Belarus and Lukashenko = Romania and Ceausescu"*_ (Pravda, RUS Communist media)
_*"Might Belarus become the next Syria?"*_ (pro-RUS news/commentary site)


----------



## The Bread Guy (26 Aug 2020)

A bit of the latest ....

_*"Belarus activists jailed, country's supreme court rejects election appeal"*_ (Reuters via CBC)
_*"BELARUSALERT – DAY 17 - First sentences, intriguer Lavrov, little green men"*_ (The Warsaw Institute, generally anti-RUS Polish think-tank)
_*"Belarussian army ready to defend country against internal threats, says Defense Ministry* - (T)he chief of the Belarussian Armed Forces’ General Staff, Alexander Volfovich said the country will not permit "the defilement of our monuments and attempts to ruin the education system, intimidate citizens, paralyze transport links, and spoil the moral values of our wonderful youth" ..."_ (TASS, RUS state media)
_*"Analyst: NATO organizes up to 50 exercises near Belarusian borders every year"*_ (BLR state media)
_*"Opinion: Work of American and European special services is visible in Belarus"*_ (BLR state media)
_*"Ukrainian analyst: West will not be friends with Belarus, it will control it"*_ (BLR state media)


----------



## Donald H (26 Aug 2020)

As much as I could see, RT.com is silent on this today but full of articles supporting Trump. They've definitely upped their ante on who they are supporting to win the US election.


----------



## The Bread Guy (26 Aug 2020)

Well, nothing to see here, then - this from BLR state media ....


> Subdivisions of the Investigative Committee are carrying out preliminary investigation into citizen complaints about use of force and special means during unauthorized mass events, BelTA learned from the information department of the Prosecutor General's Office.
> 
> These probes are designed to study the situation objectively, fully and comprehensively and to establish the presence or absence of elements of crime in the actions of law enforcement while detaining, transporting and keeping citizens in temporary detention facilities after their participation in unauthorized mass events. Each probe is overseen by prosecution agencies ...


As Captain Renault would say ....


----------



## The Bread Guy (27 Aug 2020)

Bits from the various info-machines ...

_*"Putin Hopes There Will Be No Need for Use of Russian Forces in Belarus"*_ (RIA Novosti, RUS state media)
_*"Lukashenko: High-profile diplomatic war on Belarus began"*_ (BLR state media)
_*"MP: There is a hybrid war for external control of Belarus"*_ (BLR state media)
_*"Lukashenko claims 'hybrid war', 'diplomatic onslaught' being waged against Belarus"*_ (RUS state media)
_*"There is enough evidence of foreign meddling in Belarus, Moscow says"*_ (RUS state media)
... and MSM

_*"Belarus police disperse Minsk protesters, detain dozens"*_ (Associated Press, via LA Times)
_*"Putin says Belarus leader asked Russia to create reserve police force for him: Interfax"*_ (Reuters)
_*"Belarus protests stoke sea change at state media outlets"*_ (_The Financial Times_)
_*"Belarus Turned Off the Internet. Its Citizens Hot-Wired It."*_ (gizmodo.com.au)


----------



## The Bread Guy (27 Aug 2020)

> ... _*"Putin says Belarus leader asked Russia to create reserve police force for him: Interfax"*_ (Reuters) ...


More on this:


> The Kremlin announced it has created a reserve force to intervene in Belarus if necessary. Russian President Vladimir Putin gave an interview to the state-run Russia 1 TV channel on August 27.[1] Putin stated the Kremlin has prepared a “reserve of law enforcement officers” but will not deploy it to Belarus unless the situation “gets out of control.” The Kremlin previously pledged it would intervene in Belarus in response to foreign intervention on August 15 and has claimed foreign intervention is ongoing since August 19.[2] Putin’s statement is the first Kremlin acknowledgment of preparations to intervene in Belarus. The Kremlin has supported Lukashenko with RT technical personnel, information support, and potentially covert security coordination since August 19.[3] ISW has previously assessed the Kremlin is prepared to intervene in Belarus to support Lukashenko if he is unable to control protests.[4]
> 
> Putin is likely issuing this statement as a dual warning – both to protesters and to Lukashenko – to stabilize the situation to avoid a Russian intervention. Putin stated the Kremlin hopes “the current problems in Belarus will be resolved peacefully,” but warned protesters that if they “go beyond the framework of the current law, the law will react accordingly.”[5] Putin acknowledged that problems exist in Belarus, but stressed protesters must follow the law. The Kremlin likely aims to intimidate protesters through the threat of a Russian security intervention.
> 
> The Kremlin is additionally likely warning Lukashenko to stabilize the protests or face further Russian involvement. A Russian aircraft known to be operated by the FSB (Russian intelligence) arrived in Minsk the night of August 26 and departed 5 hours later.[6] ISW cannot confirm who or what arrived in Belarus on the flight, but assesses the FSB likely sent dignitaries to speak with Lukashenko and may have sent Russian security personnel to remain behind as well. The aircraft made a similar trip to Minsk the night of August 19, after which Putin and Lukashenko publicly announced they had begun consultations for a possible Russian intervention.[7] Lukashenko has primarily cooperated with the Kremlin to respond to protests since August 15. However, the Kremlin likely seeks to cement its control over Lukashenko’s actions and pressure him to control protesters with the threat of further Kremlin involvement ...


More @ link


----------



## The Bread Guy (28 Aug 2020)

More from all over the place ...

_*"Putin says he could send police to Belarus if necessary"*_ (BBC)
_*"Vladimir Putin calls for 'peaceful' end to Belarus unrest, while threatening to send in police"*_ (AFP via AUS media)
_*"Putin hopes Russia’s law enforcement units won’t be used in Belarus — Kremlin"*_ (RUS state media)
_*"Putin hopeful for peaceful resolution of situation in Belarus"*_ (BLR state media)
_*"Putin says alleged mercenaries were lured to Belarus by foreign spy operation"*_ (Reuters via Yahoo)
_*"MFA protests against Poland's attempts to directly interfere in Belarus' domestic affairs"*_ (BLR state media)
_*"Putin: Detention of Russian citizens in Belarus set up by Ukrainian and US intelligence"*_ (RUS state media)
_*"Belarus kicks off large-scale drills on western borders"*_ (RUS state media)
_*"U.S. Allies Demand New Vote in Belarus, While Belarus Turns to Russia for Support"*_ (Newsweek)
_*"Events in Belarus compared to preparations for Ukraine's first Maidan revolution"*_ (BLR state media)


----------



## Donald H (28 Aug 2020)

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> More from all over the place ...



Nothing much from the U.S. though, so a couple of questions remain unanswered:

1. How much support did Lukashenko really have in the election?

2. Where is Trump's opinion on this situation. (is he allowed to have an opinion)

3. Will US/Nato response to this situation be different according to whether it's Trump pulling the strings or it's Biden. Assuming there are still decisions to be made after November-January?


----------



## The Bread Guy (29 Aug 2020)

A bit of the latest ....


> President Alexander Lukashenko asserted he was in control of the situation in Belarus and does not require Russian help on August 28. Lukashenko gave a defiant speech downplaying the need for Russian assistance during a visit to the city of Orsha in eastern Belarus on August 28.[1] Lukashenko stated the protests in the country and his claims of NATO pressure “are my problems, and I will solve them.” Lukashenko downplayed the possibility of a Russian intervention in Belarus, following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s August 27 announcement that Russia has prepared a unit of security forces to deploy to Belarus if necessary.[2] Lukashenko stated “we [Belarusians] will defend ourselves” and stated the Kremlin only seeks to defend itself through Belarus. Lukashenko claimed the Russian forces will only deploy in the event of NATO deployments on the “western border of the Union State.” The Kremlin, however, framed the reserve unit as “law enforcement officers” – not a military force aimed at protecting Belarus’ western border against NATO.
> 
> Lukashenko may be resisting Kremlin pressure to request Russian assistance and facilitate a Russian intervention. Lukashenko has acknowledged Russian support but deflected the need for Russian security forces since the Kremlin publicly offered to intervene in Belarus on August 15.[3] The Kremlin appears to want Lukashenko to formally request Russian support in order to justify a Russian deployment of military forces to Belarus, which would entrench Kremlin dominance over Belarus and establish a precedent for the use of Russian gendarmes in former Soviet states. The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) flight to Minsk the night of August 26 may have facilitated a meeting in which Kremlin representatives pressured Lukashenko to stick to the Kremlin’s desired information campaign of framing protests as a NATO-backed effort to target both Belarus and Russia, justifying Russian involvement. The Kremlin will likely apply further pressure on Lukashenko and retains the option to deploy forces to Belarus without Lukashenko’s approval ...


More @ link


----------



## OceanBonfire (29 Aug 2020)

They're cracking down on journalists:



> *Belarus revokes accreditations of journalists covering protests for foreign media*
> 
> https://www.reuters.com/article/us-belarus-election-journalists/belarus-revokes-accreditations-of-journalists-covering-protests-for-foreign-media-idUSKBN25P0LQ





> *Belarus cracks down on journalists, 2 AP staff deported*
> 
> https://apnews.com/194c3556d455d3d4d03df1fc92d55a65


----------



## The Bread Guy (30 Aug 2020)

A bit more of the latest from all over ....

_*"Belarus Police Arrest Protesters in Opposition March"*_ (Agence France-Presse)
_*"Lukashenko gets birthday call from Putin as Belarus protests rumble"*_ (Reuters)
_*"Putin, Lukashenko agree to meet in Moscow in coming weeks"*_ (TASS)
_*"Protection of Lukashenko’s residence in Minsk tightened as protesters are approaching"*_ (TASS)
_*"Belarus expels journalists, withdraws accreditation in crackdown"*_ (Al Jazeera English)
_*"Lukashenko: Belarus, Russia Could Unite Troops in Case of Threat on Western Border"*_ (RIA Novosti, RUS state media)
_*"President Lukashenko claims NATO has aggressive plans against Belarus"*_ (Associated Press)
_*"Belarusian opposition leader says ready to consider Russia as mediator"*_ (TASS, RUS state media)
_*"Warning: Lukashenko and the Kremlin Consolidate Control of Belarusian Media Space"*_ (Institute for the Study of War)


----------



## Donald H (30 Aug 2020)

This is the story posted by milnews.ca that helps to answer some questions on the loyalty of the opposition movement, providing we accept it as factual.

https://tass.com/world/1195073


----------



## The Bread Guy (30 Aug 2020)

Donald H said:
			
		

> This is the story posted by milnews.ca that helps to answer some questions on the loyalty of the opposition movement, providing we accept it as factual.
> 
> https://tass.com/world/1195073


Typically, I'd wonder what's left out or what angle any info-machine like TASS would take, too, but it appears that she is quoted in a Euronews interview (in Russian here), saying (Google Translate):


> ... Since this is a crisis within the country, and it is not directed against any state, we take responsibility for resolving this crisis through negotiations within the country. But if we need international mediation in the negotiations, we, of course, see Russia as one of the participants in this process. Russia is a country with which we are friends, with which we have close relations ...



Mind you, she's saying this while in Lithuania, so it would be interesting to if she'd continue using this message track if/when she returns to Belarus.

And she should be kinda careful if she goes back, given the ... tragic high-risk-uninsurability of opponents of Lukashenko & Co.


----------



## The Bread Guy (2 Sep 2020)

Russian-state media, through some commentary (in Russian), is sending a strongish message:  we're all _really_ one big (happy?) family, right? ...


> ... Belarus is not a subject of the Russian Federation, but it is part of the Union State. That is, its defense policy and security, in fact, are common with Russia, but the further course of integration will lead to the fact that the two divided parts of a single whole will become inseparable. Two states of one people are always a temporary phenomenon ...


This, in spite of BLR showing some reluctance in the past about being TOO "linked" to Russia.  This could be part of building any potential "those local defence militias you're seeing are just helping out (sorta-kinda) fellow Russians" narrative.  Like Crimea, Russia has bases in BLR from which "polite little green men" could sprout.

Meanwhile, Russia says 2 military bases in Belarus are enough for now and that their foreign int folks are keeping an eye (link in Russian), both countries are preparing for "Slavic Brotherhood" military exercises coming up and Russia's PM's dropping by Minsk this week (with BLR's defence minister dropping by Moscow later in the week - link in Russian).

Oh, and don't forget that those damned Ukrainians also have a hand in this, too ....

More from the Institute for the Study of War here.


----------



## a_majoor (3 Sep 2020)

Austin Bay looks at some of the larger picture. Belarus really would be of little interest to anyone except for it's geographic position.

https://strategypage.com/on_point/20200901211727.aspx

On Point: Why Turmoil in Belarus Matters
by Austin Bay
September 1, 2020



> Twenty-first-century political geography, however, damns Belarus with a damnation that matters. Check the map. Belarus is the linchpin of nuclear-armed Russia's western front, the mirror image of Poland's new role in defending NATO's eastern front.
> 
> Belarus is also Russia's last Slavic satellite nation -- or so the Kremlin sees it, which adds a demographic interest to a Russia confronted by population decline.
> 
> ...


----------



## The Bread Guy (5 Sep 2020)

Bread Guy said:
			
		

> ... don't forget that those damned Ukrainians also have a hand in this, too ....


... not to mention those Polish neighbours (TASS, RUS state media) (more here) ...


----------



## The Bread Guy (6 Sep 2020)

We have some sightings of men in balaclavas and plain green uniforms in the streets of Minsk (via Twitter - more via YouTube here).

One explanation:


> Security personnel wearing unmarked green uniforms appeared in Minsk for the first time on September 5. The personnel are reportedly Belarusian riot police (OMON) in new uniforms._ These personnel wear Russian-made Dozor body cameras – a model of cameras Russian police and interior forces as well as Belarusian OMON personnel use.[ii] Belarusian OMON previously wore all black uniforms with identifying markings.[iii] It is unclear why Belarusian OMON would have changed their uniforms and removed identifying markings. They could be setting conditions for the appearance of Russian security personnel in similar unmarked uniforms ..._


_
Based on the screen captures attached, my bet is on police 1)  because at least some of those in green coveralls don't seem to be ... of a body type that would suggest military special forces of any kind, and 2)  the presence/assistance of plain clothes folks wearing similar balaclavas and using similar radios.

op:_


----------



## The Bread Guy (7 Sep 2020)

Mainstream media right now seems to be focusing on opposition leader arrests (more from independent Russian media on that here, and a clear "we know NOTHING of such arrests" via RUS state media here), continued protests & mass arrests (more from USA-government-funded media here) and the EU's initial response to the Belarus unpleasantness.

Belarusian state media, on the other hand, is focusing more on a "dog ability competition", the launch of what looks like a new housing development called "Minsk World," and the latest harvest numbers.  

There IS one warning from BLR's top cop:  careful what you wish for with those (coloured?) revolutions in the streets, kids.  

Feels almost Soviet, don't it?   ;D


----------



## PuckChaser (7 Sep 2020)

Crimea 2.0. Maybe Europe will take it seriously this time and stop appeasing Putin.


----------



## Donald H (7 Sep 2020)

https://www.dw.com/en/kremlin-us-sanctions-wont-stop-nord-stream-2-gas-pipeline-to-germany/a-51720728

U.S attempting to stop Nord Stream 2. The Belarus situation appears to be the main reason why. And it looks like it's going to depend on Trump. I would suggest the little cartoon contained within is misleading but that's more about the political spin. 

Opinions?


----------



## The Bread Guy (17 Sep 2020)

Russian & other troops are planning to get together in Belarus next month for a "peacemaking exercise" (including what the Russians call "special operations troops" already there), while senior Russian military officials are in Minsk for a "working visit" - maybe to discuss more jointness/"co-operation" between the two militaries.  

Or could the RUS troops be planning a longer stay? (More on that theory)

Meanwhile, good fences - especially with those Lithuanians, Poles & Ukrainians, make good neighbours, right?  Especially to "avert a ‘hot war’."

Not to worry, though - RUS's foreign minister says things should be back to normal in BLR "soon".

op:


----------



## Donald H (18 Sep 2020)

Progress on the situation is long drawn out and as slow as mollasses in January. I would suggest that is in a large part due to the US election for president and the result.

Yes, that is referring to Trump's relationship with Putin.


----------



## Retired AF Guy (22 Sep 2020)

Interesting report from the Institute for the Study of War about Russian military deployments into Belarus. Looks like Putin is taking no chances.



> BELARUS WARNING UPDATE: RUSSIA DEPLOYS A THIRD BATTALION TACTICAL GROUP TO BELARUS
> 
> September 22, 2020, 5:00 pm EDT
> 
> ...



Link


----------



## The Bread Guy (23 Sep 2020)

Retired AF Guy said:
			
		

> Interesting report from the Institute for the Study of War about Russian military deployments into Belarus. Looks like Putin is taking no chances ...


What's a few extra troops here and there between friends brothers, right?


----------



## Donald H (23 Sep 2020)

Bread Guy said:
			
		

> What's a few extra troops here and there between friends brothers, right?



Still a lot of dark dealing to ferret out of this situation. We don't know, or may just 'I' don't know if there are any possible choices to lead Belarus who are sympthetic to the West?

Or maybe somebody does know and will contribute an opinion that can break the logjam on this slowly developing story? As noted by you, Putin is taking no chances and so must be suspicious of Western involvement of some kind.


----------



## MilEME09 (24 Sep 2020)

Donald H said:
			
		

> Still a lot of dark dealing to ferret out of this situation. We don't know, or may just 'I' don't know if there are any possible choices to lead Belarus who are sympthetic to the West?
> 
> Or maybe somebody does know and will contribute an opinion that can break the logjam on this slowly developing story? As noted by you, Putin is taking no chances and so must be suspicious of Western involvement of some kind.




well there is this https://tass.com/world/1204197, Anyone with DWAN, and want to follow this, you can sign up for OSINT news alerts straight to your in box each day. Gives you great sum ups of articles without all the Russian propaganda usually. Either way we will see more of the same I think in the weeks to come, we will need a dramatic event to shift the balance either way.


----------



## Donald H (24 Sep 2020)

https://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch/protests-erupt-in-belarus-amid-secret-inauguration-92450373646

Protesters are rising up again but the most interesting thing about this story is that Trump refuses to voice or show any support for them and that begs the question why?


----------



## CBH99 (24 Sep 2020)

Donald H said:
			
		

> https://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch/protests-erupt-in-belarus-amid-secret-inauguration-92450373646
> 
> Protesters are rising up again but the most interesting thing about this story is that Trump refuses to voice or show any support for them and that begs the question why?




With all do respect Donald - and I truly mean that, you've been polite, engaged, enthusiastic, etc etc - so I do mean the following with respect to yourself.

But honestly, who cares?  If that's the most interesting part of the story, I can't begin to imagine how boring the rest of it was   


At the end of the day, Trump is a busy guy.  He's the President of the United States, regardless of whether people like it or not.  Not only that, but he has an election coming up soon also.


As per most world the leaders, his day is jam packed with meetings, phone calls, trips, speeches, public appearances, etc etc.  Who cares if he's got other things on his mind & on his schedule than to give a shout-out to protesters in Belarus?


----------



## Donald H (24 Sep 2020)

CBH99 said:
			
		

> With all do respect Donald - and I truly mean that, you've been polite, engaged, enthusiastic, etc etc - so I do mean the following with respect to yourself.
> 
> But honestly, who cares?  If that's the most interesting part of the story, I can't begin to imagine how boring the rest of it was
> 
> ...



Thank you for your compliments on my posting style! And so with all due respects to your opinion, I can understand how busy he must be but still, his lack of comment on the Belarus situation has become the 'elephant in the room' here now.

But I'll grant you one thing and that is that it seems to be of little interest to the media. I mean, at the moment the question on support for Belarus protesters is better left ignored by Trump for his political purposes.

Can you formulate a speculative comment by Trump that would be sure to energize and please his voters?


----------



## dapaterson (23 May 2021)

Alleged Belarus security forces call out bomb threat to get a Ryanair flight from Greece to Lithuania to land in Belarus, where security arrested a journalist on board.

Yet another reason to never fly Ryanair.









						Belarus 'diverts Ryanair flight to arrest journalist', opposition says
					

Nations demand the dissident's release, after a MiG-29 escorts the Greece-Lithuania flight to Minsk.



					www.bbc.com
				





__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1396446650718117890


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## The Bread Guy (23 May 2021)

dapaterson said:


> ... Yet another reason to never fly Ryanair ...


... or fly by Belarusian airspace if they want you bad ...


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## Kilted (23 May 2021)




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## OldSolduer (23 May 2021)

dapaterson said:


> Alleged Belarus security forces call out bomb threat to get a Ryanair flight from Greece to Lithuania to land in Belarus, where security arrested a journalist on board.
> 
> Yet another reason to never fly Ryanair.
> 
> ...


Did they go back to calling themselves the KGB? They sure act like them.


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## McG (23 May 2021)

Seems like time to ban flights from using Belarusian air space, which means no commercial air going to or coming from any location in Belarus.


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## CBH99 (24 May 2021)

OldSolduer said:


> Did they go back to calling themselves the KGB? They sure act like them.


So government agents, while working - intentionally started a fight with the aircrew of a commercial airliner carrying passengers??

Wow.  Just wow.  

AND because there was someone on the plane they didn’t like, and were targeting?


Don’t even know what to say 🤦🏼‍♂️


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## The Bread Guy (24 May 2021)

CBH99 said:


> So government agents, while working - intentionally started a fight with the aircrew of a commercial airliner carrying passengers??


That's one version - also shared via RUS's info-machine/state media - here's another from RUS independent media ...


> ... Minsk's airport had released a statement earlier saying the plane had to make an emergency landing there at 1215 GMT following a bomb scare.
> 
> "The plane was checked, no bomb was found and all passengers were sent for another security search," said Nexta, a Belarus opposition channel on the Telegram messaging app, which Protasevich previously edited.
> 
> Lukashenko's press service said on its own Telegram channel the president had given the order to divert the flight and had ordered a MiG-29 fighter jet to accompany the plane ...


Meanwhile, some what-about-ism from the BLR info-machine/state media ....


> In connection with the incident with the plane in the Belarusian airspace, the Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova recalled the forced landings in Austria at the request of the United States and in Ukraine, BelTA has learned.
> 
> "It is shocking that the West calls the incident in the Belarusian airspace ‘shocking',” Maria Zakharova said on her Facebook page. “The life of ‘civilized democracies' in line with the phrase ‘quod licet Iovi, non licet bovi' [what is permissible for Jupiter may not be permissible for a bull] is no longer relevant as the once leaders have long squandered their true leadership qualities. The blood and sufferings of millions around the world have knocked the West off the pedestal from which it preached.”
> 
> “They either need to be shocked by every such incident, including the landing of the Bolivian air force one in Austria at the request of the United States and the landing of a Belarusian plane carrying an anti-Maidan activist by Ukraine 11 minutes after the takeoff, or should not be so emotional about similar behavior by others,” she stressed ...


Not to worry, though - this from RUS state media ...


> The Belarusian government has set up a commission to investigate the incident with the forced landing of a Vilnius-bound Ryanair flight that took off from Athens, the country’s Ministry of Transport and Communications said on Monday.
> 
> "A commission has been established to investigate the situation. The circumstances will be published in the near future," the ministry said ...


Let the disinformation kettle simmer ....


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## OldSolduer (24 May 2021)

CBH99 said:


> So government agents, while working - intentionally started a fight with the aircrew of a commercial airliner carrying passengers??
> 
> Wow.  Just wow.
> 
> ...


I’m not surprised at all.


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## dimsum (24 May 2021)

CBH99 said:


> So government agents, while working - intentionally started a fight with the aircrew of a commercial airliner carrying passengers??
> 
> Wow.  Just wow.
> 
> ...



Yeah, the Cold War is _totally _over


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## CBH99 (24 May 2021)

OldSolduer said:


> I’m not surprised at all.


I caught up with some articles, and am “kinda” reading between the lines.  Obviously a lot going on behind the scenes with this one.

One plane lands at the request of the US, another forced to land due to false bomb threat.  The shadows seem pretty busy last night & today.  

Are you not surprised by the general situation / incidents?  Or are you not surprised that KGB agents fought aircrew on a commercial plane?  

(And a “wow!” to them still calling themselves the KGB!”


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## MilEME09 (24 May 2021)

I doubt this will lead to anything serious, other then banning overflight, a few sections, the play book is the same, and as long as Belarus has Russia on its side, sanctions will not mean much.


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## Altair (24 May 2021)

MilEME09 said:


> I doubt this will lead to anything serious, other then banning overflight, a few sections, the play book is the same, and as long as Belarus has Russia on its side, sanctions will not mean much.


I never understand why full economic blockades are off the table.

North Korea can withstand it because its people have never known any different.

Having Belarus cut off from all european trade though, thats 23 percent of its market.


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## CBH99 (24 May 2021)

Perhaps (just brainstorming here, not sure if this has merit or not) it's because of it's proximity and borders with certain EU countries, and one convenient border with Russia.  

Maybe they fear what Belarus may do, if hit with full economic sanctions?  With it's friend Russia to one side, and a border with Ukraine, que the espionage, acts of terrorism, Russian forces possibly staging from Belarus (even if just overflights or ISR assets that don't leave Belarus airspace), etc.  Little green men sneaking over the border.  Same risks would apply to Poland, Latvia, Lithuania.


The luck of geography seems to be very much on Belarus' side, unfortunately.  And very much not on our side.  (Opposite if armed conflict were to break out.)  They could destabilize a big chunk of Europe just by pestering their neighbours if they wanted to.  So maybe the sanctions just aren't seen as worth it?  (Also, the sanctions would hurt the economies of countries that Belarus does trade with, too, albeit not as much.)


0.02


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## Altair (24 May 2021)

CBH99 said:


> Perhaps (just brainstorming here, not sure if this has merit or not) it's because of it's proximity and borders with certain EU countries, and one convenient border with Russia.


Yes, but it hurts Belarus more than it hurts those EU countries. 


CBH99 said:


> Maybe they fear what Belarus may do, if hit with full economic sanctions?  With it's friend Russia to one side, and a border with Ukraine, que the espionage, acts of terrorism, Russian forces possibly staging from Belarus (even if just overflights or ISR assets that don't leave Belarus airspace), etc.  Little green men sneaking over the border.  Same risks would apply to Poland, Latvia, Lithuania.


NATO already has staging forces in those EU countries, those little green men get squashed.


CBH99 said:


> The luck of geography seems to be very much on Belarus' side, unfortunately.  And very much not on our side.  (Opposite if armed conflict were to break out.)  They could destabilize a big chunk of Europe just by pestering their neighbours if they wanted to.  So maybe the sanctions just aren't seen as worth it?  (Also, the sanctions would hurt the economies of countries that Belarus does trade with, too, albeit not as much.)
> 
> 
> 0.02


I am convinced that in any EU versus Belarus confrontation, the EU come out on top. 

More so, when are we in the west going to stop being scared of these little asshole countries? It's getting ridiculous. 

Sanctions versus the elite of the nation, which, as we have seen in the past, does absolutely nothing is the main course of action, when full punishing economic sanctions should be the course of action.  If they are worried about the Belarus response, then they have lost the plot.


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## MilEME09 (24 May 2021)

Altair said:


> Yes, but it hurts Belarus more than it hurts those EU countries.
> 
> NATO already has staging forces in those EU countries, those little green men get squashed.
> 
> ...


We have to stop being afraid of hurting the people. You'd be surprised how fast a country turns if the people realize the government is doing more to hurt then help them. The post election violence didn't change things because the government controlled security forces. How many would still stick to the government once the cheques start bouncing?


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## OldSolduer (24 May 2021)

MilEME09 said:


> We have to stop being afraid of hurting the people. You'd be surprised how fast a country turns if the people realize the government is doing more to hurt then help them. The post election violence didn't change things because the government controlled security forces. How many would still stick to the government once the cheques start bouncing?


We have historical precedents. France in the late 18th century. Romania in the late 1980s.


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## CBH99 (24 May 2021)

Altair said:


> Yes, but it hurts Belarus more than it hurts those EU countries.
> 
> NATO already has staging forces in those EU countries, those little green men get squashed.
> 
> ...


Absolutely agreed.  

But politicians don’t think like we do.  And their ambassadors and phone calls to each other “may” be along those lines — afraid of Belarus doing something to stir trouble.   And politicians all over the west are extremely risk adverse.

Belarus vs NATO?  Absolutely.  Little green men get squashed.  

wouldn’t rule out terror attacks on a train or bus, and some other nonsense.  All blamed on a 3rd party, ofcourse.  And nobody is going to give them the shove back they really should get, because of Russia.  

^^ thats my theory anyway.  I’m probably wrong.  But causing a physical fight with cabin crew of a commercial plane that’s flying?  That’s just BEYOND 🤯


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## daftandbarmy (24 May 2021)

Altair said:


> More so, when are we in the west going to stop being scared of these* little asshole countries*? It's getting ridiculous.



Sounds like a Trump government's position.

And defining 'the West' these days is pretty complicated. Belarus might be small, but it's big Brother is the Russian bear, of course.

When Gazprom can 'righty tighty' the knobs of the pipelines any time they feel like it, the EU is in a tough position militarily and otherwise. Which is where they put themselves many years ago with respect to their economy.


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## MilEME09 (24 May 2021)

daftandbarmy said:


> Sounds like a Trump government's position.
> 
> And defining 'the West' these days is pretty complicated. Belarus might be small, but it's big Brother is the Russian bear, of course.
> 
> When Gazprom can 'righty tighty' the knobs of the pipelines any time they feel like it, the EU is in a tough position militarily and otherwise. Which is where they put themselves many years ago with respect to their economy.


If only there was a country with a wealth of natural gas it could ship across the Atlantic...oh wait we keep our resources I'm the ground. Seriously we could ween Europe off Russia if we put it as a national strategic goal.


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## daftandbarmy (24 May 2021)

MilEME09 said:


> If only there was a country with a wealth of natural gas it could ship across the Atlantic...oh wait we keep our resources I'm the ground. Seriously we could ween Europe off Russia if we put it as a national strategic goal. Europe didn't have an irrational and unfounded fear of the western countries who have come to their aid twice, and shed much blood, to free them from their neighbours.



There, FTFY.


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## Blackadder1916 (24 May 2021)

CBH99 said:


> So government agents, while working - *intentionally started a fight with the aircrew of a commercial airliner* carrying passengers??





CBH99 said:


> ^^ thats my theory anyway.  I’m probably wrong.  But *causing a physical fight with cabin crew of a commercial plane that’s flying*? That’s just BEYOND 🤯



Other than the twitter rant of a colleague of the arrested journalist, I don't see any mention that the "KGB" (as described by the tweeter) initiated or engaged in any confrontation with the Ryanair crew.  According to most media reports it was Belarusian ATC that directed them to divert to Minsk, accompanied by a fighter aircraft and, after a search (faked for plausible deniability?) of the plane and passengers, Mr Protasevich was subsequently detained.









						Belarus 'diverts Ryanair flight to arrest journalist', opposition says
					

Nations demand the dissident's release, after a MiG-29 escorts the Greece-Lithuania flight to Minsk.



					www.bbc.com
				





> How was the flight diverted?
> 
> In a statement, Ryanair said that the crew had been "notified by Belarus (Air Traffic Control) of a potential security threat on board and were instructed to divert to the nearest airport, Minsk".


 
Is the Belarusian regime and its security apparatus a brutal bunch of assholes?  No argument here, but at least let's deal with facts and not unsubstantiated hyperbole.


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## CBH99 (24 May 2021)

Blackadder1916 said:


> Other than the twitter rant of a colleague of the arrested journalist, I don't see any mention that the "KGB" (as described by the tweeter) initiated or engaged in any confrontation with the Ryanair crew.  According to most media reports it was Belarusian ATC that directed them to divert to Minsk, accompanied by a fighter aircraft and, after a search (faked for plausible deniability?) of the plane and passengers, Mr Protasevich was subsequently detained.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I totally agree with you.  I did read that in an article earlier today though, while having my morning coffee.  Will track it down and post it.

I apologize for sounding confusing with my posts on this, if I'm somehow right out to lunch on it.  And I'm truly not a morning person at all, so maybe I did get my wires crossed.  I am like 98% sure I read in an article earlier this morning that state security personnel 'initiated a physical altercation with the cabin crew.'


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## McG (24 May 2021)

It seems they are still KGB in Belarus:  State Security Committee of the Republic of Belarus - Wikipedia

And there are reports of Belarus KGB on the plane:








						Belarus KGB believed to be on plane forced to land in Minsk, says Ryanair CEO
					

Michael O’Leary made comments as EU, US and UK consider action against act of ‘air piracy’




					www.theguardian.com
				











						Ryanair CEO Says KGB Agents on Board Plane 'Hijacked' by Belarus
					

Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary called the incident "a case of state-sponsored hijacking" and "state-sponsored piracy."




					www.newsweek.com


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## daftandbarmy (24 May 2021)

Annnnnd Sanctions.....

EU imposes new economic sanctions on Belarus over ‘hijacked’ flight​
EU leaders triggered new economic sanctions against Belarus and punitive measures against its national airline as a dissident taken from a “hijacked” Ryanair flight was paraded on the country’s television news apparently confessing to crimes against the state.

In a summit communique swiftly agreed in Brussels on Monday night, the EU’s 27 heads of state and government condemned the forced landing of flight FR4978 in Minsk and called for the immediate release of opposition blogger Roman Protasevich and his Russian girlfriend, Sofia Sapega.

The statement came shortly after the release of a video in which Protasevich denied reports that he had suffered health problems since his arrest in the Belarusian capital and said that he was confessing to inciting mass riots, a charge that carries a maximum prison sentence of 15 years. The video, which appeared to have been filmed by police, was Protasevich’s first appearance since his arrest.

Protasevich, who was dressed in a black hoodie and seated next to a pack of cigarettes, said: “I can declare that I have no problems with my health, either with my heart or with any other organs. [Police] officers are treating me absolutely correctly and according to the law. I’m currently continuing to cooperate with the investigation and am giving a confession to the organisation of mass arrests in the city of Minsk.”

The opposition journalist appeared to have bruising above his right eye. He has not previously said he planned to confess to the charges against him, and several journalists who know him have said they believe he is under duress.

Late on Monday, Joe Biden condemned “in the strongest possible terms” the operation to arrest Protasevich, calling it “a direct affront to international norms” and called for his release. He welcomed EU sanctions, adding that his team was assessing “appropriate options”.

Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, earlier spoke to Belarusian democratic opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya about the “brazen and dangerous grounding” of Protasevich’s Ryanair flight and reassured her of US support for democracy, human rights, and fundamental freedoms in the country.

Sullivan has also “raised our strong concerns” about Belarus’s action with his Kremlin counterpart, according to the US White House press secretary, Jen Psaki.

Under the measures agreed by the EU leaders, a raft of economic sanctions will be applied against those involved in the arrests adding to those imposed months earlier on nearly 60 Belarusian officials, including president Alexander Lukashenko and his son Victor, relating to the crackdown on peaceful protests against last August’s allegedly rigged presidential election result.

The new sanctions will cover individuals involved in the hijacking, businesses that finance the Belarus regime and the aviation sector.

The EU’s heads of state and government also called on EU carriers to avoid Belarusian airspace and agreed “to adopt the necessary measures to ban overflight of EU airspace by Belarusian airlines and prevent access to EU airports” in a major blow to the country’s national airline. European flights over the country’s airspace have already been suspended.









						EU imposes new economic sanctions on Belarus over ‘hijacked’ flight
					

Joe Biden welcomes EU moves as father of opposition blogger Raman Pratasevich says video confession appears forced




					www.theguardian.com


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## YZT580 (24 May 2021)

MilEME09 said:


> If only there was a country with a wealth of natural gas it could ship across the Atlantic...oh wait we keep our resources I'm the ground. Seriously we could ween Europe off Russia if we put it as a national strategic goal.


sorry, not possible.  Quebec refused to allow a pipeline to cross their province to bring western fuel to the east coast and ships.


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## MilEME09 (24 May 2021)

YZT580 said:


> sorry, not possible.  Quebec refused to allow a pipeline to cross their province to bring western fuel to the east coast and ships.


Yes and we all know Quebec gets a special exemption to over rule federal projects which it actually doesn't have power over, oh and can change the constitution now, I'm done with Quebec BS.


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## daftandbarmy (25 May 2021)

MilEME09 said:


> Yes and we all know Quebec gets a special exemption to over rule federal projects which it actually doesn't have power over, oh and can change the constitution now, I'm done with Quebec BS.



Because the equivalent 'BC BS' is better?

We suck at getting our hydrocarbon based products to market, let alone doing it in a cost effective way, and that's not going to help pay for all the things Canadians brag about like health care, student subsidies and various climate change virtue signalling efforts.


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## brihard (26 May 2021)

Something’s up. A Belarusian airliner en route to Barcelona has started flying circles in Belarus airspace. Two full loops complete since I noticed it.

EU airspace denied?


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## MilEME09 (26 May 2021)

brihard said:


> Something’s up. A Belarusian airliner en route to Barcelona has started flying circles in Belarus airspace. Two full loops complete since I noticed it.
> 
> EU airspace denied?


If it's a Belarusian airliner, yes, EU's new sanctions closed their airspace


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## dimsum (26 May 2021)

brihard said:


> Something’s up. A Belarusian airliner en route to Barcelona has started flying circles in Belarus airspace. Two full loops complete since I noticed it.
> 
> EU airspace denied?


I thought the EU, etc closed their airspace a couple of days ago.  Did this airline not get the msg?


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## brihard (26 May 2021)

Hit or miss. There have been flights to Warsaw and Vienna this morning. I saw something to the effect that France closed their airspace. There might be a wall further west in Europe. I suspect the EU will be trying to get some consistency in place this evening.

The Barcelona flight has called it a day and is headed back.


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## MilEME09 (12 Nov 2021)

Bit of a thread necro but the north Atlantic council released a statement.



> Statement by the North Atlantic Council on the situation at the Poland-Belarus border:
> 
> The North Atlantic Council strongly condemns the continued instrumentalisation of irregular migration artificially created by Belarus as part of hybrid actions targeted against Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia for political purposes.
> 
> ...


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## Kirkhill (16 Nov 2021)

Escalation continues









						Belarus 'arming migrants with stun grenades' amid worst clashes so far with Polish border guards
					

Video footage published on Tuesday reportedly shows migrants hurling missiles over the border fence separating the two countries




					www.telegraph.co.uk
				




UK supports Poland









						UK stands in solidarity with Poland over migrant crisis -PM Johnson
					

Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Monday Britain stood in solidarity with Poland, as the European Union stepped up sanctions on Belarus over a migrant crisis that has left thousands stranded on its border with Poland.




					www.reuters.com
				




EU and Poland at odds (with UK elements cheering on the EU)









						The EU is locked in a momentous fight with Poland. And the UK is backing the wrong side | Will Hutton
					

Plans to override the judges are unpalatable to those who defend Enlightenment values




					www.theguardian.com
				




Russia demonstrating the vulnerability of satellites (on which comms, surveillance and PGM warfare depend)









						Nato warns about Russia’s new weapons after Moscow shoots satellite into smithereens
					

Russia has been accused of testing an anti-satellite missile, striking a defunct satellite and scattering a cloud of orbital debris




					www.telegraph.co.uk
				




Pretty much ready for the Hybrid Warfare textbook.


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## Colin Parkinson (16 Nov 2021)

daftandbarmy said:


> Because the equivalent 'BC BS' is better?
> 
> We suck at getting our hydrocarbon based products to market, let alone doing it in a cost effective way, and that's not going to help pay for all the things Canadians brag about like health care, student subsidies and various climate change virtue signalling efforts.


Actually we are quite good at getting it to market, as long as that market is the US. When LNG Canada starts exporting that is going to start changing the equation.


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## Humphrey Bogart (16 Nov 2021)

Colin Parkinson said:


> Actually we are quite good at getting it to market, as long as that market is the US. When LNG Canada starts exporting that is going to start changing the equation.


WCS is trading at a $20.00 discount.  Americans LOVE Canadian Oil!


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