# Medvedev: Russia may target missile defense sites



## HavokFour (23 Nov 2011)

AP



> MOSCOW (AP) -- President Dmitry Medvedev says Russia will aim its missiles at the U.S. missile defense sites in Europe if Washington fails to address Russian concerns on its missile defense plans.
> 
> Medvedev said that Russia will deploy missiles in its westernmost Kaliningrad region and other areas if Russia and NATO fail to reach a deal on the U.S.-led missile defense plans.
> 
> ...



Uh oh.  :-\


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## HavokFour (23 Nov 2011)

*Plans to counteract the US missile defense shield*​
Source



> Russia warns it will deploy Iskander missile systems in the Kaliningrad and Krasnodar regions, and in the neighboring Belorussia if there is no agreement over the planned American missile defense shield in Europe between Russia and the US. A spokesman for Russia’s Defense Ministry told this to reporters in Moscow on Wednesday. He also announced that by the 1st of December Russia will raise Aerospace Defense Forces that will be able to effectively handle potential missile threats.
> 
> That Russia-US missile defense negotiations have hit an impasse, as the US has refused to give legally binding guarantees that the system would not be aimed at Russia’s strategic nuclear defenses under any circumstances. The US claims the shield is to protect Eastern Europe from a rogue missile strike.
> 
> ...


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## Edward Campbell (23 Nov 2011)

This plan depends upon the assumption that the Russian missiles have been maintained and that the rocket fuel hasn't been sold.


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## vonGarvin (23 Nov 2011)

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> This plan depends upon the assumption that the Russian missiles have been maintained and that the rocket fuel hasn't been sold.


I think we'd be prudent to _assume_ that they have been maintained and that the rocket fuel hasn't been sold.


Edited to add (for levity):


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## tomahawk6 (23 Nov 2011)

Obama has decided not to deploy the missiles and sold out the UK at the same time. Obama hates Britain its his Kenyan roots. This man is single handidly wrecking our long standing relationship with the UK.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/wikileaks/8304654/WikiLeaks-cables-US-agrees-to-tell-Russia-Britains-nuclear-secrets.html#

Information about every Trident missile the US supplies to Britain will be given to Russia as part of an arms control deal signed by President Barack Obama next week. 

 Defence analysts claim the agreement risks undermining Britain’s policy of refusing to confirm the exact size of its nuclear arsenal. 

 The fact that the Americans used British nuclear secrets as a bargaining chip also sheds new light on the so-called “special relationship”, which is shown often to be a one-sided affair by US diplomatic communications obtained by the WikiLeaks website. 

 Details of the behind-the-scenes talks are contained in more than 1,400 US embassy cables published to date by the Telegraph, including almost 800 sent from the London Embassy, which are published online today. The documents also show that: 

 • America spied on Foreign Office ministers by gathering gossip on their private lives and professional relationships.

• Intelligence-sharing arrangements with the US became strained after the controversy over Binyam Mohamed, the former Guantánamo Bay detainee who sued the Government over his alleged torture. 

 • David Miliband disowned the Duchess of York by saying she could not “be controlled” after she made an undercover TV documentary. 

 • Tens of millions of pounds of overseas aid was stolen and spent on plasma televisions and luxury goods by corrupt regimes. 

 A series of classified messages sent to Washington by US negotiators show how information on Britain’s nuclear capability was crucial to securing Russia’s support for the “New START” deal. 

 Although the treaty was not supposed to have any impact on Britain, the leaked cables show that Russia used the talks to demand more information about the UK’s Trident missiles, which are manufactured and maintained in the US. 

 Washington lobbied London in 2009 for permission to supply Moscow with detailed data about the performance of UK missiles. The UK refused, but the US agreed to hand over the serial numbers of Trident missiles it transfers to Britain. 

 Professor Malcolm Chalmers said: “This appears to be significant because while the UK has announced how many missiles it possesses, there has been no way for the Russians to verify this. Over time, the unique identifiers will provide them with another data point to gauge the size of the British arsenal.” 

 Duncan Lennox, editor of Jane’s Strategic Weapons Systems, said: “They want to find out whether Britain has more missiles than we say we have, and having the unique identifiers might help them.” 

 While the US and Russia have long permitted inspections of each other’s nuclear weapons, Britain has sought to maintain some secrecy to compensate for the relatively small size of its arsenal. 

 William Hague, the Foreign Secretary, last year disclosed that “up to 160” warheads are operational at any one time, but did not confirm the number of missiles.


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## Canadian.Trucker (23 Nov 2011)

Plan for the worst, hope for the best.  The mere possibility of another cold war beginning is definitely a bad case scenario for everyone involved.  Lets hope it's just a lot of posturing and chest thumping.


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## Edward Campbell (23 Nov 2011)

Canadian.Trucker said:
			
		

> Plan for the worst, hope for the best.  The mere possibility of another cold war beginning is definitely a bad case scenario for everyone involved.  Lets hope it's just a lot of posturing and chest thumping.




Actually the _Cold War_ served us very well: we reduced Russia from a stumbling, albeit strong giant to a rubbish heap by outspending them because we were (still are) orders of magnitude more productive. The Chinese are becoming more productive, the Russians not so much.


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## Canadian.Trucker (23 Nov 2011)

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> Actually the _Cold War_ served us very well: we reduced Russia from a stumbling, albeit strong giant to a rubbish heap by outspending them because we were (still are) orders of magnitude more productive. The Chinese are becoming more productive, the Russians not so much.


Hindsight being 20/20 the fact that the Cold War did not go hot it is possible to say it served us well, but the mere fact that on a number of occasions fingers hovered over buttons that could have made our little planet cease to exist does not put a smile on my face.  The logic of the benefit of war could be used for WWII in that case since it assisted in bringing about the end of the depression and on the other end carried a wave of economic boom.  Regardless I would not want to see us back in another standoff and staring contest to see who blinks first, because no one would win if it came to blows.


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## vonGarvin (23 Nov 2011)

Personally, I miss the predictability that came with the Cold War.  And, besides, in the Cold War, Germans were both our potential enemies:






And our friends:


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## Mirv (23 Nov 2011)

"My fellow Americans, I am pleased to tell you I just signed legislation which outlaws Russia forever. The bombing begins in five minutes."    >

-Ronald Reagan


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## a_majoor (23 Nov 2011)

In the longer run, it does not matter.

Russia is in the grip of a demographic crisis which could see its population halved by 2035; who will man the borders and run the factories? Even today, while the demographic crisis hasn't struck full force, it is readily apparent that Russia's industrial base is still nowhere near as productive as that of the West, all the factors that caused the Russians to loose the Cold War are still in play; now Russia also has to divide her attention between the West, the Islamic south and China.

Russia also has to factor the reduction of "petrodollars" as unconventional North American oil and natural gas come on the market and keep prices flat or even cause them to decrease. Men, machines and money; the three key elements needed to run or grow an Empire are going to be in short supply as the future unfolds...


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## GAP (23 Nov 2011)

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> Actually the _Cold War_ served us very well: we reduced Russia from a stumbling, albeit strong giant to a rubbish heap by outspending them because we were (still are) orders of magnitude more productive. The Chinese are becoming more productive, the Russians not so much.



China is due for some turmoil....you can't keep that large a population under your thumb, all the while they are seeing what's going on in the rest of the world....They may be loosening up some controls, etc. , but I would suggest people are just going to start, if they haven't already, to ignore the government dictates. When done in large enough numbers the government will react; generally overreact. 

That starts the avalanche. It might take 15 - 20 years to reach the tipping point, but it will come. 

I don't think the US can out perform China that long, in todays markets and atmosphere....

 :2c:


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## jollyjacktar (23 Nov 2011)

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> Actually the _Cold War_ served us very well: we reduced Russia from a stumbling, albeit strong giant to a rubbish heap by outspending them because we were (still are) orders of magnitude more productive. The Chinese are becoming more productive, the Russians not so much.



Agreed, at least we knew who the bad guys were, and where they were.  Things were easier.  And, we had a bigger military with new equipment not the slow bleeding to death of a thousand cuts of the last 20 years.


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## Edward Campbell (23 Nov 2011)

GAP said:
			
		

> China is due for some turmoil....you can't keep that large a population under your thumb, all the while they are seeing what's going on in the rest of the world....They may be loosening up some controls, etc. , but I would suggest people are just going to start, if they haven't already, to ignore the government dictates. When done in large enough numbers the government will react; generally overreact.
> 
> That starts the avalanche. It might take 15 - 20 years to reach the tipping point, but it will come.
> 
> ...




China will, indeed, have ups and downs and, almost certainly, some internal turmoil. But, as I keep saying, culture matters and the Sinic/Confucian culture has a deep, ingrained respect for the top level, national, _Chinese_ authority. When there are problems - and we have already seen some, the Chinese people can and do take quick, often harsh action against _local_ officials but they seem, to me, to maintain a benign _delusion_ about Beijing.

The Chinese Communist party is in the throes of _internal_ revolution; as far as I can tell everything from recruiting through training and all the way to advancement is on the table, including elections of leaders within the party. The party wants to be a "representative meritocracy," whatever that means.

Local elections are already being held - especially in poor regions. When elected officials prove just as incapable as the appointed ones at e.g. stopping floods, earthquakes or droughts the folks in Beijing, behind the red walls, say, "See, democracy doesn't solve your problems."


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## a_majoor (5 Dec 2011)

We really need a Russian superthread. The future under Putin looks to be increasingly unstable and chaotic (with the occasional foreign adventure thrown in to change the focus):

http://www.forbes.com/sites/paulroderickgregory/2011/12/05/russias-voters-have-spoken-anybody-but-putin



> *Russia's Voters Have Spoken: Anybody But Putin*
> 
> According to exit polls, Vladimir Putin’s United Russia lost its majority in the Russian parliament in Sunday’s voting. United Russia fell from a two third majority to under fifty percent. Prior to the election, Putin muzzled independent election monitors; so the actual vote was much worse for his former majority party.
> 
> ...


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## a_majoor (11 Dec 2011)

Another one for the putative Russia Superthread. If this sort of protest movement takes flight, it will hamper Russia's dream of regaining superpower status. Indeed the internal chaos may well take Russia right off the table as a contender for a prolonged period of time (and if this goes on too long, the demographic "bomb" will make this state of affairs pretty much permanent):

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/8948526/Protesters-chant-Russia-without-Putin-as-Kremlins-opponents-stage-unprecedented-rally-by-Moscow-river.html



> *Protesters chant 'Russia without Putin' as Kremlin's opponents stage unprecedented rally by Moscow river*
> 
> Up to 50,000 protesters chanted 'Russia without Putin' as they filled a Moscow square to demonstrate in unprecedented numbers against their rulers.
> Russia election protests: tens of thousands gather for biggest demonstration since fall of USSR
> ...


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## camouflauge (11 Dec 2011)

A missile shield is another expensive smoke and mirrors show that isn't needed. It's a ploy for the military and big business to further fatten their pockets and maintain control. Satellites presently surveil every inch of the surface of the planet and can detect a missile launch as it happens. The source can be determined and then decimated. End of story!


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## SeaKingTacco (11 Dec 2011)

camouflage said:
			
		

> A missile shield is another expensive smoke and mirrors show that isn't needed. It's a ploy for the military and big business to further fatten their pockets and maintain control. Satellites presently surveil every inch of the surface of the planet and can detect a missile launch as it happens. The source can be determined and then decimated. End of story!



You seem awfully certain of yourself.  How many years have you worked in the satellite surveillance field?


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## aesop081 (11 Dec 2011)

camouflage said:
			
		

> It's a ploy for the military and big business to further fatten their pockets and maintain control.



Yes, i am sure that's it  :



> Satellites presently surveil every inch of the surface of the planet and can detect a missile launch as it happens.



So ?



> The source can be determined and then decimated. End of story!



Determining the source and retaliating does nothing about the missiles that have already been fired.


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## a_majoor (23 Dec 2011)

Russia continues to crumble:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/a-fix-for-russian-science-isnt-taking-hold/2011/11/28/gIQAMJD99O_print.html



> *In Russia, the lost generation of science*
> By Will Englund, Published: December 21
> 
> PUSHCHINO, Russia — For the past decade, Russia has been pouring money into scientific research, trying to make up for the collapse of the 1990s, but innovation is losing out to exhaustion, corruption and cronyism.
> ...


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## a_majoor (26 Dec 2011)

Not an optomistic timeline by any means. The 50 years being discussed here takes Russia past the demographic collapse, and Russians in desparate straights have already expressed their preference for the "man on the white horse":

http://pjmedia.com/claudiarosett/the-long-rough-awakening-of-russia/?singlepage=true



> The Long Rough Awakening of Russia
> December 24, 2011 - 7:02 pm - by Claudia Rosett
> 
> Twenty years ago this Christmas day, Mikhail Gorbachev gave a speech announcing “I hereby discontinue my activities at the post of President of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics.” And with that, the totalitarian and murderous construct of the USSR, already uncoupled earlier that month by Russian President Boris Yeltsin and the presidents of Ukraine and Belarus, was no more.
> ...


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## a_majoor (25 Feb 2012)

The same petrodollars that help us also help Russia. The only problem is Russia uses her petrodollars against us:

http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2012/02/24/resource-curse-works-for-putin/



> *Resource Curse Works for Putin*
> 
> The West knows Vladimir Putin as a cold, calculating strategist, but in the run-up to this spring’s presidential elections, he has been putting on a different persona. Over the past few weeks, he’s made a number of generous promises, from increased salaries for public employees to cheaper healthcare. As a result, his once iffy poll numbers have been steadily rising. Most pollsters now estimate that Putin would avoid a runoff if the election were held today.
> 
> ...


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## a_majoor (3 Mar 2012)

Vladimir Putin's legacy. The problem is now that he has acheived what the voters want, they are starting to move in a different direction that what Putin sees as the way forward:

http://opinion.financialpost.com/2012/03/02/lawrence-solomon-vladimir-the-great/



> *Lawrence Solomon: Vladimir the Great*
> Lawrence Solomon  Mar 2, 2012 – 9:23 PM ET | Last Updated: Mar 3, 2012 12:50 AM ET
> 
> After centuries of serfdom, Putin has delivered prosperity
> ...


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## Maxadia (3 Mar 2012)

I, for one, still believe that and incredible amount of resources will be discovered in eastern Russia, some that will dwarf even the oilsands in Ft. McMurray and mineral deposits in the Ontario shield.  It may not happen in our lifetime, but I'm sure given the similarities in our landscapes that it is there.  Think Tom Clancy's "The Bear and the Dragon".  And there's a whole lot of space north of China for them to move into.....we might be on the outside ring of two very large combatants.

It will be interesting to see how that affects things.


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## Edward Campbell (3 Mar 2012)

RDJP said:
			
		

> I, for one, still believe that and incredible amount of resources will be discovered in eastern Russia, some that will dwarf even the oilsands in Ft. McMurray and mineral deposits in the Ontario shield.  It may not happen in our lifetime, but I'm sure given the similarities in our landscapes that it is there.  Think Tom Clancy's "The Bear and the Dragon".  And there's a whole lot of space north of China for them to move into.....we might be on the outside ring of two very large combatants.
> 
> It will be interesting to see how that affects things.




I'm repeating myself, but ...

In every Chinese school I have visited (a fair few) there is a big decorative world map in the main hallway - some are painted, some are mosaics, some are, really, quite beautiful. China is always bright red, the areas around China - Japan, Korea, Burma, Viet Nam, etc - are all in lighter shades of red or pink. Russia is usually in two colours - Eastern Russia, the part in Asia (East of the Yenisei River) is always coloured pale red or pink - just a shade less red than Mongolia. The Chinese regard Eastern Siberia as being East Asian and they regard East Asia as being within their sphere of influence.

My understanding is that the Chinese are willing (and able) to buy everything known or yet to be discovered in Eastern Siberia but they have cautioned the Russians that they, the Chinese, are not Europeans: Russia will not be allowed to cut off deliveries just because they are upset with some foreign policy matter - as long as the Chinese are paying they will *demand* full, on time delivery, without question.


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## brihard (3 Mar 2012)

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> I'm repeating myself, but ...
> 
> In every Chinese school I have visited (a fair few) there is a big decorative world map in the main hallway - some are painted, some are mosaics, some are, really, quite beautiful. China is always bright red, the areas around China - Japan, Korea, Burma, Viet Nam, etc - are all in lighter shades of red or pink. Russia is usually in two colours - Eastern Russia, the part in Asia (East of the Yenisei River) is always coloured pale red or pink - just a shade less red than Mongolia. The Chinese regard Eastern Siberia as being East Asian and they regard East Asia as being within their sphere of influence.
> 
> My understanding is that the Chinese are willing (and able) to buy everything known or yet to be discovered in Eastern Siberia but they have cautioned the Russians that they, the Chinese, are not Europeans: Russia will not be allowed to cut off deliveries just because they are upset with some foreign policy matter - as long as the Chinese are paying they will *demand* full, on time delivery, without question.



Yup. China has no need at all to engage in expensive military conquest. They've got the 'state capitalism' thing absolutely down pat. They'll pick their corporate champions and buy what they can. With that said, Russia is also getting better at this game, so they'll be reticent to let China get their nose too far under the tent flap.

There are far too many direct foreign investment friendly jurisdictions (like us) for China to be bothered with wars of conquest. Those are too easily lost, and too hard to win these days if your goal is stable control and supply of resources. Russia could be expected to defend its resource base fiercely.


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## a_majoor (10 Mar 2012)

Dr Rice on how changing values of the Russian population may make Vladimir Putin's rule more difficult:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/how-russias-urban-middle-class-can-bring-an-end-to-putinism/2012/03/08/gIQA1FL1zR_print.html



> *The promise of Russia’s urban middle class*
> By Condoleezza Rice, Published: March 8
> 
> The election of the once and future president of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, tempts one to despair that the brief and inspiring political awakening in Russia over the past year was for naught. He has gotten his way — replacing his protege Dmitry Medvedev and reclaiming the Kremlin to solidify authoritarianism and political stagnation.
> ...


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## RDY2SRV12 (3 May 2012)

Latest out of Russia...

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/05/03/nato-missile-shield-will-be-met-with-pre-emptive-strikes-russia-warns/


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## a_majoor (10 May 2012)

Russians protest the swearing in of Vladimir Putin:

http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/blog/vladimir-kara-murza/mass-protests-putin-inauguration



> *Mass Protests at Putin Inauguration*
> 10 May 2012
> 
> As Vladimir Putin’s armored motorcade traveled the short distance from the Government House to the Kremlin on May 7th, downtown Moscow looked postapocalyptic, like something from a Hollywood movie. The city was deserted: not only the immediate route of the motorcade, but also the neighboring streets, central squares, and nearby metro stations were sealed off to the public. Residents along the route were forbidden to leave their apartments. Some 20,000 police and interior ministry forces occupied Moscow to protect the president-“elect” from his voters.
> ...


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## exabedtech (10 May 2012)

awwww good old apocalyptic rhetoric from the Soviets!  I mean the Russians!!  Brings me back.... Seriously, though, these sort of statements are meaningless pandering to his electorate and really quite tame when compared to the sorts of statements they would regularly issue during the cold war.

Sure, Medvedev, go ahead and target those anti-missile sites with your missiles.  Nothing like an outside threat to get peoples minds off those nasty domestic issues.


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## a_majoor (17 Aug 2012)

Members of the punk rock band "Pussy Riot" were sentanced to prison, resulting in a world wide round of protests, as reported in the WSJ. Glen Reynolds (Instapundit) maocks Vladimir Putin by suggesting he is afraid of girls. Certainly mockery is a meme which will be harder for the Russians to counteract, and if people like former world Chess champion Garry Kasperov is involved in the protests, then maybe the band is just the wedge that opens up the discontent of the Russian people:

http://blogs.wsj.com/emergingeurope/2012/08/17/supporters-stage-protests-around-the-world/?mod=e2tw



> Supporters Stage Protests Around the World
> 
> Article
> By WSJ Staff
> ...


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## a_majoor (20 Aug 2012)

While a female punk band is perhaps an easy target (not having connections); Garry Kasperov writes that this is symptomatic of a much larger problem in Russia; the rebirth of the police state. Protesting on behalf of the band is fine (and probably good for their morale to know they have friends and supporters outside), but as Kasperov says, Russia's leaders are only in it for money and power, if we really want to make a difference hit them there:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444375104577595811340186308.html



> *When Putin's Thugs Came for Me *
> 
> I was dragged away Friday by a group of police—in fact carried away with one on each arm and legArticle Comments (287) more in Opinion | Find New $LINKTEXTFIND$ »smaller Larger facebooktwittergoogle pluslinked inEmail Print Save ↓ More
> smaller Larger By Garry Kasparov
> ...


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## vonGarvin (20 Aug 2012)

What Pussy Riot did was disgraceful and was only a bunch of spoiled brats acting like fools.  

That they were sentenced to two years is perhaps harsh, but I suppose a message was being sent.  (Contrast that to multiple offender Lindsay Lohan getting a minor slap on the wrist for her transgressions, and other celebrities in the West getting away with murder, and in some cases, literally.  Only because they are famous).


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## Edward Campbell (20 Aug 2012)

Technoviking said:
			
		

> What Pussy Riot did was disgraceful in poor taste and was only a bunch of spoiled brats acting like fools. Very true
> 
> That they were sentenced to two years is perhaps harsh, but I suppose a message was being sent.  It's Russia, after all, why would anyone expect anything even remotely like law or justice? You're not expecting modern, sophisticated, _civilized_ actions are you? (Contrast that to multiple offender Lindsay Lohan getting a minor slap on the wrist for her transgressions, and other celebrities in the West getting away with murder, and in some cases, literally.  Only because they are famous).


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## vonGarvin (20 Aug 2012)

Mr. Campbell:  very good edits.  Yes, in poor taste.  

Actually, given that it's Russia...the results may be surprisingly lenient....


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## a_majoor (23 Aug 2012)

The jailing of the band "***** Riot" may have triggered something that Vladmir Putin and his gang were not expecting. Normally apolitical people are suddenly being engaged, and through means that had been overlooked by Russia's ruling elites. Clamping down on the Internet and widening crackdowns on dissent bring many risks (especially given the changing conditions of Russia; now there is a middle class not beholden to the Party who may well be willing to fight for their rights and freedoms [See "The Coming of the French Revolution]), while trying to look the other way may only encourage the growth of dissent and political opposition. Not exactly a win/win for Russia's rulers:

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/08/23/anne-applebaum-dictators-may-need-to-start-censoring-pop-stars/



> *Anne Applebaum: Vladimir Putin’s Madonna problem*
> Anne Applebaum | Aug 23, 2012 6:10 AM ET | Last Updated: Aug 22, 2012 10:26 PM ET
> More from Anne Applebaum
> 
> ...


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## jollyjacktar (23 Aug 2012)

I, for one am all for half naked women protestors running amok with chainsaws.  Makes a great change from the croccupy movement.  Better looking too I'd wager.




			
				Thucydides said:
			
		

> The jailing of the band "***** Riot" may have triggered something that Vladmir Putin and his gang were not expecting. Normally apolitical people are suddenly being engaged, and through means that had been overlooked by Russia's ruling elites. Clamping down on the Internet and widening crackdowns on dissent bring many risks (especially given the changing conditions of Russia; now there is a middle class not beholden to the Party who may well be willing to fight for their rights and freedoms [See "The Coming of the French Revolution]), while trying to look the other way may only encourage the growth of dissent and political opposition. Not exactly a win/win for Russia's rulers:
> 
> http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/08/23/anne-applebaum-dictators-may-need-to-start-censoring-pop-stars/
> 
> ...


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## vonGarvin (23 Aug 2012)

Madonna also once called the AIDS epidemic the worst tragedy of the 20 th Century.  I suppose she never heard of the
 holocaust...
Another example of slacktivism...


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## Journeyman (23 Aug 2012)

> Global pop culture mutates and changes week by week, just as technology does: Modern dictatorships will have to make some fast decisions if they want to keep up.
> 
> The Washington Post


I'm sure your average dictatorship gives a rat's buttock about keeping up with "modern pop culture".... and its mutants.   :


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## a_majoor (23 Aug 2012)

While you and I can smile knowingly at "slacktivism"; they engage the public in unpredictable ways with unknowable consequences. Sometimes you can ignore them (Koney 2012), sometimes they become annoying (the "Occupy" movement), but sometimes things get out of hand (G20 and anti WTO protests).

For Putin and his crony's, unpredictable consequences are to be avoided. A glare of negative publicity might shed light on other unsavoury doings by Russia's political elites, and blowback could include very consequential things including a reduction in the flow of Western investment (especially in the energy field) or a cancellation or modification of GAZPROM contracts to supply natural gas to Europe. Given the discovery of new supplies of natural gas in Europe and the Mediterranean using technologies like fracking and horizontal drilling, cutting off GAZPROM is now doable with limited effects on the European economy, but hugely consequential to the Russian economy.

So if (and it is a big if) enough Russians begin to follow the "Free ***** Riot" meme there will be trouble at home, and if enough people are being engaged by Madonna and other Western stars (for whatever reason) there may be trouble abroad. Either result will be troubling for Vladimr Putin and his crony's.


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## Journeyman (23 Aug 2012)

Thucydides said:
			
		

> ....but sometimes things get out of hand (G20 and anti WTO protests).


Refresh my memory; were those caused by Madonna, or was that Bono again? Ever since she stopped prancing about naked, it's difficult to muster much interest in her bleatings, and I find it hard to tell the two apart.


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## a_majoor (23 Aug 2012)

I was speaking about slacktivism in general. Regardless of what we might think of slacktivism or its spokespeople, they do have a disproportionate impact on  what others do or think, impacts that we usually don't like very much.....


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## Journeyman (23 Aug 2012)

Thucydides said:
			
		

> .....they do have a disproportionate impact on  what others do or think...


I remain unconvinced that the impact is that great, particularly when it comes to motivating action. 

It's much like the CF's growing IA crowd, which for at least three deployments were 'over-promised and under-delivered' -- and two of those deployments were before IA became "Reserve property" (which cynically, may just be the pre-amble to culling Reserve numbers).

Sorry, still not ready to drink that kool-aid. Whether it's Madonna or some Russian girl band, my money is still on Vlad.


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## a_majoor (19 Sep 2012)

More for the Russian Superthread, the former USSR had discovered trillions of carats of diamonds in the 1970's but concealed the find in order to protect the diamond cartel (and their own profits). The global diamond market will be in turmoil:

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Global-News/2012/0917/Russia-reveals-shiny-state-secret-It-s-awash-in-diamonds



> *Russia reveals shiny state secret: It's awash in diamonds*
> 
> 'Trillions of carats' lie below a 35-million-year-old, 62-mile-diameter asteroid crater in eastern Siberia known as Popigai Astroblem. The Russians have known about the site since the 1970s.
> 
> ...


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## a_majoor (13 Oct 2012)

Russia will withdraw from arms reduction treaties. While the author correctly suggests this is due to the perceived weakness of the United States, it should also be noted Russia is deathly afraid of the rising populations of Islamic peoples in the "Near Abroad" and the growing power and influence of China. As a Land power, Russia does not have the means to effectively project power far beyond its borders, and even the recent military build up will not change this much:

http://news.investors.com/print/ibd-editorials/101112-629062-obama-reset-with-russia-a-failure.aspx



> *Russia Withdrawal From Arms Deal Shows Failure Of Obama Reset*
> 
> Posted 10/11/2012 07:20 PM ET
> 
> ...


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## a_majoor (24 Dec 2012)

The long term outlook for Russia isn't good. Demographically, they could have lost half of their population by @ 2035. For those who remain, the resource wealth is going to be spread among fewer people. OTOH, there will be a lot more "non Russian" people eager to move in and get their hands on the wealth, including the Chinese in the East and various Islamic populations from the Caucus and "near abroad". For the remaining Russians, the choice comes down to who will man the factories and who will defend the borders?

http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2012/12/23/putin-whistles-in-the-dark-over-mother-russias-demography/



> *Putin Whistles in the Dark As Mother Russia Declines*
> 
> President Putin is doing his best to spin the numbers on Russian demography. After catastrophic declines in population since the death of the Soviet Union, Russia saw births outnumber deaths last year and, temporarily, the demographic numbers look better. As the Financial Times reports, the ebullient sounding President remarked that the solution to Russia’s demographic problmes ar at home: “Our women know what to do, and when,” he remarked.
> 
> ...


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## a_majoor (5 Jan 2013)

A haunting photo essay of the last days of the USSR:

http://www.readability.com/read?url=http%3A//www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2255693/Last-pictures-life-iron-curtain-collapse-USSR.html


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## Flanker (2 Feb 2013)

Thucydides said:
			
		

> Russia will withdraw from arms reduction treaties.



Wow!

Since when non prolongation of an expired funding agreement is called "withdrawal from arm reduction treaties"?
Ah ok, the good old Western media selling news in a true bending style.

Why are we not talking about the real withdrawal of US from the missile defense agreement?

This is just to point to the real cause of why those pesky Russians suddenly decided to put tactical missiles on their own borders? 
How dare they to react and protect their country?

Looks like this hypocritical song will continue until some Russian anti-missile defense squadrons appear near the US and Canadian borders (only to protect Russia from Iran's and Nort Korea's missiles  :).

As it happened in 1962, when Western governments pissed their pants and finally stopped their hypocrisy.


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## Flanker (2 Feb 2013)

Thucydides said:
			
		

> A haunting photo essay of the last days of the USSR:
> 
> http://www.readability.com/read?url=http%3A//www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2255693/Last-pictures-life-iron-curtain-collapse-USSR.html



Looks like thirty years later your are still trying to kick the dead lion.
Do you want me to post some not so pleasant photos from US and Canada?


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## a_majoor (2 Feb 2013)

Is there a point to your posts? (particularly the given the time interval)


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## Edward Campbell (2 Feb 2013)

Thucydides said:
			
		

> A haunting photo essay of the last days of the USSR:
> 
> http://www.readability.com/read?url=http%3A//www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2255693/Last-pictures-life-iron-curtain-collapse-USSR.html




The picture of the Siberians in Novokuznetsk reminds me of the great Russian Army _circa_ 1967, when we feared them most: a bunch of drunken bums, _disciplined_, if that's the word, with fists and knouts, poorly paid (when they were paid at all), essentially untrained, manning equipment which either didn't work at all or for which there was neither ammo or fuel.

Russia is, today, somewhat better off without the former "republics" but it is still socially and economically backwards - a second world state on its way to third world status - and militarily irrelevant. The poor beggars can't even keep their best (the world's best) ballerinas; they're fleeing to suburban Toronto!

It's best hope for the future is another Mongol invasion.


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## Flanker (3 Feb 2013)

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> The picture of the Siberians in Novokuznetsk reminds me of the great Russian Army _circa_ 1967, when we feared them most: a bunch of drunken bums, _disciplined_, if that's the word, with fists and knouts, poorly paid (when they were paid at all), essentially untrained, manning equipment which either didn't work at all or for which there was neither ammo or fuel.
> 
> Russia is, today, somewhat better off without the former "republics" but it is still socially and economically backwards - a second world state on its way to third world status - and militarily irrelevant. The poor beggars can't even keep their best (the world's best) ballerinas; they're fleeing to suburban Toronto!
> 
> It's best hope for the future is another Mongol invasion.



Who is writing this? A first world guy?
Russia has seen several times self-proclaimed ubermensches - French ones, German ones - that were talking essentially the same language as the one quoted above.
They can tell their "success" stories.
Please do not repeat their errors.

As for military relevance, I am sorry but not Canada (being de facto an eternal US vassal and de jure still a British colony) will be talking about this.


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## Flanker (3 Feb 2013)

Thucydides said:
			
		

> Is there a point to your posts? (particularly the given the time interval)



Yes, many of them.

Point 1. Your post about "Retreat from arms reduction treaties" is misleading. There was no any retreat.
Point 2. Publishing thirty-year old pre-selected photos about a country that does not exist anymore looks like fueling anti-russian propaganda.
Point 3. The topic that criticizes Medvedev looks hypocritic as it conveniently avoids any mentions about US unfriendly actions causing this Russia's reaction.


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## SeaKingTacco (3 Feb 2013)

Well, now that we have that settled....


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## a_majoor (3 Feb 2013)

You might wish to respond with facts and resoned argument then. If you are disputing the reasons that Russia took particular actions, then state how and why.

As for historical essays or photos, I deemed it interesting for fellow members, since many of us were trained and served during the Cold War. Seeing what conditions were actually like during that period is interesting, especially after clearing the filters of time, propaganda that was prevalent during the period and lack of opportunity for most members to have seen the USSR first hand.

Once again, if you have some sort of evidence that these are NOT pictures of the USSR during that period, then please present it.


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## a_majoor (10 Jun 2013)

More for the putative Russia Superthread. The US oil boom will have plenty of positive outcomes for the US and the Western world; not so much for the Russians:

http://nextbigfuture.com/2013/06/if-oil-prices-were-to-drop-important.html



> *If oil prices were to drop the important geopolitical impact would be on Russia*
> 
> If shale oil, shale gas and synthetic biofuels were to rapidly scale and significantly lower the price of oil this would have interesting geopolitical impacts on Russia. The Iran, Saudi Arabia impacts would also be interesting but a weaker Russian economy would matter more for geopolitics. 20-25% of Russia's GDP is tied to the oil and gas sector.
> 
> ...


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## a_majoor (2 Aug 2013)

The crackdown against gay rights in Russia explained as a means of defining Russia as "Not the West". There are lots of other reasons to explain this turn of events; Russians are notoriously xenophobic and the gay population is both different enough to feel threatening, close enough to reach yet small and powerless enough to punish. The Islamic population of the "near abroad" is a different and much more dangerous group to unleash force on (even if that is probably the most frightening mid to long term issue among Russians), far better to leave that sleeping dog lie:

http://www.buzzfeed.com/miriamelder/why-russia-turned-against-the-gays



> *Why Russia Turned Against The Gays*
> Vladimir Putin’s new campaign for national — and political — survival.
> posted on August 1, 2013 at 9:51pm EDT
> Miriam Elder
> ...


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## Edward Campbell (7 Aug 2013)

Although Mr Snowden provides the catalyst, the "hit" to Russo-American relations, which is outlined in this story which is reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the _Globe and Mail_ is, in reality, predicated on Russia's ongoing decline in pretty much every important measure:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/commentary/putin-isnt-just-humiliating-washington-hes-testing-it/article13621207/#dashboard/follows/


> Putin isn’t just humiliating Washington – he’s testing it
> 
> AUREL BRAUN
> Special to The Globe and Mail
> ...




The latest reports are that President Obama will attend the G8 in St Petersburg but he has nixed a bilateral meeting with Putin and will go to Sweden instead.

President Obama should propose, and Canada and I think Britain, too, would support expelling Russia from the G8 and the grounds that it is not a suitable member.

The Russians have two problems:

     1. The Russian people are catching on to the fact that the Russian government is corrupt and inept; and

     2. China remains, as always, a malevolent giant, pised on Russia's Eastern borders.

Russia is neither wholly European nor Asian but it needs to turn on way or the other, cap in hand.


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