# Unusual strain of flu from Mexico



## a_majoor (24 Apr 2009)

Something very odd is going on:

http://pajamasmedia.com/instapundit/  23 April 2009



> “NO REASON FOR CONCERN YET:” New Swine Flu Outbreak in U.S.
> 
> UPDATE: Reader D.M. Walker writes:
> 
> ...


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## Michael OLeary (24 Apr 2009)

*Canadians told to be on alert for Mexico illness*

By THE CANADIAN PRESS
http://www.torontosun.com/news/canada/2009/04/23/9220936.html



> Public health units and medical officials across the country have been warned to be on the lookout for illness in Canadians returning from Mexico.
> 
> The warning follows reports from the country of cases of severe respiratory illness, which in some cases has led to death.



More at link.


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## PMedMoe (25 Apr 2009)

*WHO convenes emergency meeting on swine flu crisis*
Article Link

The head of the World Health Organization has convened an emergency meeting at the agency's headquarters to determine if it's necessary to raise the pandemic alert level, as officials work to contain a deadly swine flu outbreak that may have killed more than 60 people in Mexico. 

Margaret Chan cut short a visit to Washington and returned to the WHO's Strategic Health Operation Center in Geneva, Switzerland, on Saturday, and was immediately briefed on the latest developments.

At least 62 people have died in Mexico from severe pneumonia caused by a flu-like illness, WHO spokesperson Gregory Hartl said.

Mexican officials put the death toll at 68, with 20 confirmed to be linked to the new swine flu strain, known as A H1N1.

The strain has not been previously diagnosed in either pigs or humans and appears to spread easily from human to human.

More than 1,000 people in Mexico have fallen ill, sparking concerns of a pending public health crisis. 

More at link


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## Fishbone Jones (25 Apr 2009)

I got an internal bulletin yesterday. We've been put on notice.


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## Occam (25 Apr 2009)

recceguy said:
			
		

> I got an internal bulletin yesterday. We've been put on notice.



If I may ask;  who is "we", and on notice of what?


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## Bruce Monkhouse (25 Apr 2009)

Ontario Government...we [they] have pandemic threat levels.


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## Occam (25 Apr 2009)

Seen, thanks.

And as a further edit - this whole thing seems very creepy to me, in a Stephen King - "_The Stand_" kind of way.


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## mariomike (25 Apr 2009)

Been there, done that.
During SARS, Toronto's 850 paramedics had 1,166 potential SARS exposures; 436 were placed in a 10-day home quarantine, which meant being isolated from those persons within the home, continuously wearing an N95 respirator, and taking their temperature twice a day. SARS-like illnesses developed in 62 paramedics, and suspected or probable SARS requiring hospitalization developed in 4 others. On March 26, almost all of the frontline staff of the city's northeast quadrant were sent home because of possible SARS exposure at a Toronto hospital. On May 22, when the outbreak's second phase began, 200 paramedics had contact with patients with SARS and were quarantined.


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## PMedMoe (26 Apr 2009)

*WHO calls swine flu outbreak a health emergency*
Article Link

Health Secretary Jose Angel Cordova told a news conference Saturday evening that 20 deaths have been confirmed to be from the swine flu outbreak and another 1,324 have likely been sick from the virus since April 13.

He added that the virus may have killed at least 81 people in Mexico, but not all the deaths have been confirmed to be from the virus, known as A H1N1.

On Saturday evening, the New York Times reported that eight high school students in New York have likely contacted the virus after visiting Mexico.

Earlier on Saturday, the World Health Organization is calling the swine flu outbreak a "public health emergency of international concern" but has decided to hold off on raising the global pandemic alert level.

Gregory Hartl, a spokesperson for the WHO, said Saturday the threat level will stay at its current Phase 3 until the organization gets a clearer picture at what is going on. 

More on link

I think some people at NDMC may be happy that we carried out fit-testing for N-95 masks back in November.....


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## mariomike (26 Apr 2009)

I should add that during SARS, even though most of Toronto's Paramedics were under quarantine, ambulance coverage was never really compromised. Nor will it be when the next pandemic strikes. 
Section 45:17 of our collective agreement calls for a "working quarantine". That is you work for double time, then go home to your basement and quarantine yourself until your next shift.


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## Lil_T (26 Apr 2009)

oh wow - I don't think that bodes well.  But that may be my germphobia.  <hermitmode>


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## Journeyman (26 Apr 2009)

Hmm.....my ex-girlfriend's parents just got back from their annual winter retreat to Mexico. 

Perhaps the mother should be put to death and her body thrown on a bonfire -- you know, as a preventative measure.


Hey, I'm just concerned about the good of society here. I'm _that_ caring!   :nod:


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## tomahawk6 (26 Apr 2009)

The director of the Anthropology Museum Felix Solis met Obama when he visited Mexico City and died of flu complications the following day. No doubt Obama is being treated with tamiflu just in case. The death toll in Mexico is 81 now serious,but hardly a pandemic.


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aEsNownABJ6Q&refer=worldwide

By Thomas Black

April 25 (Bloomberg) -- Mexican President Felipe Calderon declared an emergency in his country’s swine flu outbreak, giving him powers to order quarantines and suspend public events. 

Authorities have canceled school at all levels in Mexico City and the state of Mexico until further notice, and the government has shut most public and government activities in the area. The emergency decree, published today in the state gazette, gives the president authority to take more action. 

“The federal government under my charge will not hesitate a moment to take all, all the measures necessary to respond with efficiency and opportunity to this respiratory epidemic,” Calderon said today during a speech to inaugurate a hospital in the southern state of Oaxaca. 

At least 20 deaths in Mexico from the disease are confirmed, Health Minister Jose Cordova said yesterday. The strain is a variant of H1N1 swine influenza that has also sickened at least eight people in California and Texas. As many as 68 deaths may be attributed to the virus in Mexico, and about 1,000 people in the Mexico City area are showing symptoms of the illness, Cordoba said. 

Obama’s Visit 

The first case was seen in Mexico on April 13. The outbreak coincided with the President Barack Obama’s trip to Mexico City on April 16. Obama was received at Mexico’s anthropology museum in Mexico City by Felipe Solis, a distinguished archeologist who died the following day from symptoms similar to flu, Reforma newspaper reported. The newspaper didn’t confirm if Solis had swine flu or not. 

The Mexican government is distributing breathing masks to curtail the disease’s spread. There is no vaccine against the new strain of swine flu, health authorities said. 

Museums, theaters and other venues in the Mexico City area, where large crowds gather, have shut down voluntarily and concerts and other events canceled to help contain the disease. Two professional soccer games will be played tomorrow in different Mexico City stadiums without any fans, El Universal newspaper reported. Catholic masses will be held, the newspaper said, although church officials urged worshipers to wear breath masks and to avoid contact. 

Schools will likely remain closed next week, Calderon said in the Oaxaca speech. The decree allows Calderon to regulate transportation, enter any home or building for inspection, order quarantines and assign any task to all federal, state and local authorities as well as health professionals to combat the disease. 

“The health of Mexicans is a cause that we’re defending with unity and responsibility,” Calderon said. “I know that although it’s a grave problem, a serious problem, we’re going to overcome it.” 

Normal Airport Operations 

Mexico City’s international airport, which handles about 70,000 passengers each day, is operating normally, said Victor Mejia, a spokesman. Passengers are given a questionnaire asking if they have flu symptoms and recommending they cancel their trip and see a doctor if they do. The measures are voluntary, Mejia said, and no case of swine flu in airport passengers, workers or visitors has been confirmed. 

Authorities throughout Central America have issued alerts to prevent the outbreak from spreading. Guatemala ordered tighter control yesterday of its northern border with Mexico, according to EFE. Gerberth Morales, who’s heading the Guatemala government’s response, said no cases of swine flu have been reported in his country, the Spanish news agency reported. 

Brazil is intensifying vigilance in ports, airports and borders to check travelers’ health, luggage, aircrafts and ships in a preventive action against the outbreak in Mexico, the Agency for Sanitary Vigilance said on its Web site. 

To contact the reporter on this story: Thomas Black in Monterrey at tblack@bloomberg.net


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## vonGarvin (27 Apr 2009)

For those of us who have a black sense of humour, see how YOU would do  as a virus, bacteria or parasite


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## vonGarvin (27 Apr 2009)

Journeyman said:
			
		

> Hmm.....my ex-girlfriend's parents just got back from their annual winter retreat to Mexico.
> 
> Perhaps the mother should be put to death and her body thrown on a bonfire -- you know, as a preventative measure.
> 
> ...


Noted.  Once the government starts burning bodies, I find that it's often much too late, so I think that we should take it upon ourselves to stop the disease!

You know, for the good of society!


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## Yrys (27 Apr 2009)

Six confirmed cases of swine flu in Canada - in B.C. and N.S.

OTTAWA - Swine flu has entered Canada with a whimper but public-health authorities warn 
that a half-dozen mild cases reported in Nova Scotia and British Columbia could give way to 
a more serious outbreak. All the Canadian illnesses are linked to Mexican travel, although 
the cases announced Sunday have been so innocuous that none of the patients in Nova Scotia 
or B.C. even required hospitalization.

That doesn't mean the bug will remain mild, federal authorities warned as they cast a wary 
glance at the scores of deaths in Mexico caused by the virus. Federal officials said they have 
already begun discussions with drug companies about producing a new vaccine, amid fears 
that existing treatments would fail to resist the virus.

David Butler-Jones, the chief public health officer for the federal government, noted that the 
first patients may have had mild flu symptoms but he cautioned against complacency. "It 
doesn't mean we won't see either more severe illness or, potentially, deaths," he said.
"There's many reasons to treat this seriously. No one should lull themselves into thinking 
that everything's just fine because it's a relatively mild disease."

Canadian government scientists helped identify the virus. Their Mexican counterparts 
contacted them by email with concerns on April 17 and they conducted tests at Winnipeg's 
national microbiology lab.

Fears of a pandemic quickly rippled across the globe. There were 20 cases reported in the 
U.S. in states ranging from California to New York; there were 10 suspected positive tests 
in New Zealand from students who recently went to Mexico; Russia even banned meat 
imports from Mexico, although health experts say it's unlikely the virus would be transmitted 
through food.

Federal Health Minister Leona Aglukkaq said she's been in touch with her provincial counterparts 
and has ordered the Public Health Agency of Canada to alert border authorities, quarantine officers 
and other officials. Customs agents at airports are on the lookout for anyone with flu-like symptoms 
and have already pulled aside two arriving passengers and sent them to be examined.

Air Canada and Westjet both announced Sunday they would waive fees for anyone seeking to change 
their Mexican flight plans between now and April 30.

For the time being, however, Aglukkaq urged the general public to concentrate on "important but very 
simple precautions."They include the standard advice for people to wash their hands frequently, cover 
their mouths and noses when they cough or sneeze and stay home and avoid contact with others if 
they feel ill. The minister also advised anyone who has recently visited Mexico and developed flu-like 
symptoms to see a doctor without delay.

In Vancouver, Dr. Danuta Skowronski, of B.C.'s Centre for Disease Control, told reporters that so far 
there is no sign in Canada of the severe respiratory illness that Mexico has been grappling with.
Skowronski said the two people on the B.C. Lower Mainland who have contracted the flu have been 
asked to "self-isolate" but have not been quarantined.

Twenty-one people at a private school in rural Nova Scotia were placed in quarantine after a trip 
to Mexico, which included a cultural and music exchange in the southern Yucatan Peninsula.
Four teenagers at King's-Edgehill School were diagnosed as some of Canada's first swine-flu 
patients. The children reported fatigue, muscle aches and coughing, but nothing out of the ordinary 
for a flu-sufferer. Only one of those sick students had actually been to Mexico. The school placed 
the 17 children in its medical facility, while two teachers joined them there and two other teachers 
were forced to remain home.

Nova Scotia's chief public health officer said the four "very mild" cases of swine flu were detected 
in students ranging in age from 12 to 17 or 18. All are recovering, he said. "It was acquired in 
Mexico, brought home and spread," said Dr. Robert Strang.

Because swine flu is so new, most laboratories don't have tests to identify them, and they show up 
as untypeable influenza A when tests are run.

Foreign Minister Lawrence Cannon told a national news agency the federal cabinet has set up 
an operations committee and has been monitoring the swine flu situation closely. Foreign Affairs 
has posted information on its website on the health situation in Mexico but is not telling Canadians 
to stay away from the country. More than one million Canadians travel to Mexico each year, and 
about 600,000 Mexicans visit Canada.

The federal government has a telephone hotline and websites for information about the virus.
The phone number is *1-800-454-8302*, and the websites are *www.fightflu.ca*, *www.voyage.ca* and www.phac.gc.ca.


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## Marmite (27 Apr 2009)

Tamiflu is not prophylactic. Giving it to Obama when he has no symptoms is useless. It will not hurt him, but if he has no influenza virus in his body, your wasting the medication.

Edited to add:

Sorry, I guess the rules have changed for the administration of Tamiflu. It is prophylactic.."Tamiflu could prevent the flu onset even if the patient has been exposed to someone who suffers from it." as per http://www.tamiflu.com/treat.aspx


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## Yrys (27 Apr 2009)

Q&A: What is swine flu?. BBC News, 27 april

*Infection control experts are scrambling to respond to outbreaks of swine flu 
in Mexico and the US, and suspected cases elsewhere.

What is swine flu?*

Swine flu is a respiratory disease, caused by influenza type A which infects pigs.
There are many types, and the infection is constantly changing. Until now it has 
not normally infected humans, but the latest form clearly does, and can be spread 
from person to person - probably through coughing and sneezing.

*What is new about this type of swine flu?*

The World Health Organization has confirmed that at least some of the human cases 
are a never-before-seen version of the H1N1 strain of influenza type A.  H1N1 is the 
same strain which causes seasonal outbreaks of flu in humans on a regular basis.

But this latest version of H1N1 is different: it contains genetic material that is typically 
found in strains of the virus that affect humans, birds and swine.

Flu viruses have the ability to swap genetic components with each other, and it seems 
likely that the new version of H1N1 resulted from a mixing of different versions of the 
virus, which may usually affect different species, in the same animal host. Pigs provide 
an excellent 'melting pot' for these viruses to mix and match with each other.

*How dangerous is it?*

Symptoms of swine flu in humans appear to be similar to those produced by standard, 
seasonal flu. These include fever, cough, sore throat, body aches, chills and fatigue.

Most cases so far reported around the world appear to be mild, but in Mexico lives have 
been lost.

*How worried should people be?*

When any new strain of flu emerges that acquires the ability to pass from person to person, 
it is monitored very closely in case it has the potential to spark a global epidemic, or pandemic. 

The World Health Organization has warned that taken together the Mexican and US cases could 
potentially trigger a global pandemic, and stress that the situation is serious. However, experts 
say it is still too early to accurately assess the situation fully. Currently, they say the world is 
closer to a flu pandemic than at any point since 1968 - rating the threat at three on a six-point 
scale.

Nobody knows the full potential impact of a pandemic, but experts have warned that it could cost 
millions of lives worldwide. The Spanish flu pandemic, which began in 1918, and was also caused 
by an H1N1 strain, killed millions of people.

The fact that all the cases in the US have so far produced mild symptoms is encouraging. It suggests 
that the severity of the Mexican outbreak may be due to an unusual geographically-specific factor - 
possibly a second unrelated virus circulating in the community - which would be unlikely to come into 
play in the rest of the world. Alternatively, people infected in Mexico may have sought treatment at 
a much later stage than those in other countries.

It may also be the case that the form of the virus circulating in Mexico is subtly different to that 
elsewhere - although that will only be confirmed by laboratory analysis. There is also hope that, 
as humans are often exposed to forms of H1N1 through seasonal flu, our immune systems may 
have something of a head start in fighting infection.

However, the fact that many of the victims are young does point to something unusual. Normal, 
seasonal flu tends to affect the elderly disproportionately.

*Can the virus be contained?*

The virus appears already to have started to spread around the world, and most experts believe that 
containment of the virus in the era of readily available air travel will be extremely difficult.

*Can it be treated?*

The US authorities say that two drugs commonly used to treat flu, Tamiflu and Relenza, seem to be 
effective at treating cases that have occurred there so far. However, the drugs must be administered 
at an early stage to be effective. Use of these drugs may also make it less likely that infected people 
will pass the virus on to others.

The UK Government already has a stockpile of Tamiflu, ordered as a precaution against a pandemic.
It is unclear how effective currently available flu vaccines would be at offering protection against the 
new strain, as it is genetically distinct from other flu strains.

US scientists are already developing a bespoke new vaccine, but it may take some time to perfect it, 
and manufacture enough supplies to meet what could be huge demand.

A vaccine was used to protect humans from a version of swine flu in the US in 1976. However, it 
caused serious side effects, including an estimated 500 cases of Guillain-Barré syndrome. There were 
more deaths from the vaccine than the outbreak.

*What should I do to stay safe?*

Anyone with flu-like symptoms who might have been in contact with the swine virus - such as those 
living or travelling in the areas of Mexico that have been affected - should seek medical advice.
But patients are being asked not to go into doctors surgeries in order to minimise the risk of spreading
the disease to others. Instead, they should stay at home and call their healthcare provider for advice.

Although the Foreign and Commonwealth Office says people "should be aware" of the outbreak, it is 
not currently advising people against travelling to affected areas of Mexico and the US.

*What measures can I take to prevent infection?*

Avoid close contact with people who appear unwell and who have fever and cough.

General infection control practices and good hygiene can help to reduce transmission of all viruses, 
including the human swine influenza. This includes covering your nose and mouth when coughing or 
sneezing, using a tissue when possible and disposing of it promptly.

It is also important to wash your hands frequently with soap and water to reduce the spread of the 
virus from your hands to face or to other people and cleaning hard surfaces like door handles 
frequently using a normal cleaning product.

If caring for someone with a flu-like illness, a mask can be worn to cover the nose and mouth 
to reduce the risk of transmission. The UK is looking at increasing its stockpile of masks for 
healthcare workers for this reason.

But experts say there is no scientific evidence to support more general wearing of masks to guard 
against infections.

*Is it safe to eat pig meat?*

Yes. There is no evidence that swine flu can be transmitted through eating meat from infected 
animals. However, it is essential to cook meat properly. A temperature of 70C (158F) would be 
sure to kill the virus.

*What about bird flu?*

The strain of bird flu which has caused scores of human deaths in South East Asia in recent years 
is a different strain to that responsible for the current outbreak of swine flu.

The latest form of swine flu is a new type of the H1N1 strain, while bird, or avian flu, is H5N1.
Experts fear H5N1 hold the potential to trigger a pandemic because of its ability to mutate rapidy.
However, up until now it has remained very much a disease of birds.

Those humans who have been infected have, without exception, worked closely with birds, and cases 
of human-to-human transmission are extremely rare - there is no suggestion that H5N1 has gained 
the ability to pass easily from person to person.


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## Yrys (27 Apr 2009)

Have Your Say map: Swine flu, BBC News

Governments around the world are hurrying to contain the spread of a new swine flu virus after 
outbreaks were reported in Mexico, the US and Canada.

At least 100 people are now suspected to have died of the disease in Mexico.
Use this  map to explore the swine flu outbreak in video, audio, pictures and text. 


Swine flu outbreak in maps

Fears of a flu pandemic are growing as the number of confirmed cases around the world 
continues to rise.

In Mexico - where the outbreak began - there are now 26 confirmed cases. Some reports 
say as many as 149 people may have died from swine flu, but WHO officials put the figure 
much lower and said only about 20 of the deaths could be definitely attributed to swine flu. 

(That map is by date. You can see from day to day confirmed, suspected and negatives cases.)


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## Yrys (27 Apr 2009)

Europe Urges Citizens to Avoid U.S. and Mexico Travel, New York Times, 27 april

The number of people killed by the swine flu in Mexico has climbed to 149, up from a toll of 103 
over the weekend, prompting officials to shut every school in the country and discuss the possibility 
of a further shutdown of Mexico City. 

As of Monday afternoon, more than 1,600 people in 17 states across Mexico were believed to have 
been sickened by the virus. Officials in Mexico City, where the outbreak is centered, had already 
canceled hundreds of public events and closed many public venues. They have urged people with 
possible symptoms — headache, cough, sore throat, nausea, fever, dizziness — to stay home.
But Mayor Marcelo Ebrard said officials would discuss a further shutdown, which could include 
public transportation.

As Mexico struggled to contain its outbreak, the World Health Organization reported that the number 
of confirmed cases in the United States had doubled, rising from 20 to 40. Earlier on Monday, the 
European Union’s health commissioner on urged Europeans to avoid traveling to the United States 
or Mexico if doing so was not essential. 

The warning came as health officials in Spain confirmed that a man hospitalized in eastern Spain had 
tested positive for swine flu, becoming what appeared to be Europe’s first case of the disease. Health 
authorities were also testing 17 other suspected cases across Spain, a major hub for travel between 
Mexico and Europe.

Britain and other European Union nations had already issued travel advisories for those traveling 
to Mexico, but the European Union’s health commissioner went a step further on Monday in urging 
Europeans to avoid nonessential trips. Europeans, she told reporters in Luxembourg, “should avoid 
traveling to Mexico or the United States of America unless it is very urgent for them.”


_rest of article on_ link


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## Yrys (27 Apr 2009)

Queens's cases : How Queens Flu Outbreak Was Quickly Reported, 27 april

The authorities’ quick and determined response to a swine flu outbreak in Queens began with 
a diligent school nurse and was amplified by a computerized early warning system made robust 
after the 9/11 attacks.

A nurse at St. Francis Preparatory School called the city’s school nurse on Thursday to report that 
about 75 students had symptoms including upset stomach, nausea and fever. Because of reports 
from other parts of the country, officials immediately thought swine flu could be a culprit. By the 
time officials arrived on Friday afternoon, the number of sick students rose to 150. The New York 
Post reports that one student started feeling symptoms on Tuesday.

The Daily News reports that a 50-person private cleaning crew was working a 12-hour shift with 
sponges and buckets Sunday to sanitize St. Francis, which will be closed Monday and Tuesday. 
Among those who attend the school: the daughter of the Senate majority leader, Malcolm A. Smith.

Susan Dominus reassures everyone in her Big City column that while the government may be 
spending its last dime on the bailout package, it is apparently filthy rich with stockpiles of Tamiflu. 
Also we have the calm, collected city health commissioner, Dr. Thomas R. Frieden, in charge.

See a slide show on the global response to swine flu and an informational graphic on symptoms, 
vaccines and confirmed cases.


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## medicineman (27 Apr 2009)

Guess I'd better get out that  "Pandemic Influenza and Martial Law" pamphlet I tossed into the recycle bin awhile back   .

MM


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## muskrat89 (29 Apr 2009)

I'm responsible for Emergency Planning where I work. We're reviewing our pandemic plans


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## CBH99 (29 Apr 2009)

I was employed as a paramedic with the City of Calgary for 4yrs before being accepted into my current profession - so I don't mean to sound naive when I ask this.  But, isn't this being blown out of proportion & made out to be a bigger deal than it really is?

Sure, it is a new strain of flu.  But the symptoms are rather similar to other strains of flu, its just the source that is different.  Isn't this being blown just a tad bit out of context?


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## bdave (29 Apr 2009)

CBH99 said:
			
		

> I was employed as a paramedic with the City of Calgary for 4yrs before being accepted into my current profession - so I don't mean to sound naive when I ask this.  But, isn't this being blown out of proportion & made out to be a bigger deal than it really is?
> 
> Sure, it is a new strain of flu.  But the symptoms are rather similar to other strains of flu, its just the source that is different.  Isn't this being blown just a tad bit out of context?


You are being naive in believing the media wouldn't use this to blow it out of proportion and use that fear factor to get more folks to tune in.
I know the "common" flu kills several hundred people a year.
I agree that this is basically all very ridiculous.


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## PMedMoe (29 Apr 2009)

Read up on the 1918 Spanish Flu and tell me if you still think being prepared for a _possible_ pandemic is "ridiculous".

This is a flu that people will not have *any* immunity to.  In the 1918 pandemic, it wasn't so much the flu that killed people, but their own immune system's overreaction to it.


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## 40below (29 Apr 2009)




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## jmbest (29 Apr 2009)

*Only 7 swine flu deaths, not 152, says World Health Organisation 
* - interesting read

A member of the World Health Organisation (WHO) has dismissed claims that more than 150 people have died from swine flu, saying it has officially recorded only seven deaths around the world.

Vivienne Allan, from WHO's patient safety program, said the body had confirmed that worldwide there had been just seven deaths - all in Mexico - and 79 confirmed cases of the disease.

"Unfortunately that [150-plus deaths] is incorrect information and it does happen, but that's not information that's come from the World Health Organisation," Ms Allan told ABC Radio today.

"That figure is not a figure that's come from the World Health Organisation and, I repeat, the death toll is seven and they are all from Mexico."

Ms Allan said WHO had confirmed 40 cases of swine flu in the Americas, 26 in Mexico, six in Canada, two in Spain, two in Britain and three in New Zealand.

Ms Allan said it was difficult to measure how fast the virus was spreading.

She said a real concern would be if the flu virus manifested in a country where a person had had no contact with Mexico, and authorities were watching all countries for signs of that.

"There is no pattern that has emerged at this stage to be able to say that it is spreading in a particular way or it is spreading into a particular country ... the situation is continuing to evolve," she said.

She said the WHO was not recommending against overseas travel, but urged those who felt sick to stay home and others to ensure they kept their hands clean.

No decision had yet been made about vaccinations.

"This virus is not airborne, it's caused by droplets ... so it's not a time for worry. It's a time to be prepared," Ms Allan said.

Crude oil price drops

Oil prices dipped in Asia today as concern that a swine flu outbreak could undermine crude demand overrode optimism about an eventual recovery from a global slump. 

Benchmark crude for June delivery was down 39 cents to $49.53 a barrel by midday in Singapore, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract Tuesday fell 22 cents to settle at $49.92.


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## tomahawk6 (29 Apr 2009)

The US loses on average 36,000 people during flu season,so this virus needs to pick up alot of steam before I would get concerned.


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## PMedMoe (29 Apr 2009)

"This virus is not airborne, it's caused by droplets"

Say what?    And droplets can't/won't be airborne when someone sneezes or coughs?

Definition of airborne from Merriam-Webster:

1: done or being in the air : being off the ground: as a: carried through the air (as by an aircraft) *b: supported especially by aerodynamic forces or propelled through the air by force*

Although, I agree with her statement regarding the amount of deaths.  People seem to like to skim over the word "suspected".


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## Yrys (29 Apr 2009)

PMedMoe said:
			
		

> "This virus is not airborne, it's caused by droplets"
> 
> Say what?    And droplets can't/won't be airborne when someone sneezes or coughs?



I wonder in what "Vivienne Allan, from WHO's patient safety program" has studied (ies?)...


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## Fishbone Jones (29 Apr 2009)

Information, about swine flu, from Ontario Ministry of Health and Long Term Care website:

http://www.health.gov.on.ca/english/public/updates/archives/hu_09/swine_flu.html


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## Snakedoc (29 Apr 2009)

Looks like the WHO has just raised the pandemic alert level to 5 now, 6 being the highest level and considered a pandemic.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20090429/swine_cases_090429/20090429?hub=TopStories


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## PMedMoe (29 Apr 2009)

Snakedoc said:
			
		

> Looks like the WHO has just raised the pandemic alert level to 5 now, 6 being the highest level and considered a pandemic.



I'm actually kind of surprised at that.  I thought the definition of level 5 was when there was a confirmed transmission of a case to someone who hadn't been in the country of origin.

Edit to add:  Here it is, emphasis mine:

Phase 5: The same identified virus has caused sustained *community-level* outbreaks in two or more countries in one WHO region. A pandemic is officially under way.


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## CougarKing (2 May 2009)

Yikes! Hong Kong has reported its first confirmed case!



> Agence France-Presse - 5/1/2009 11:17 PM GMT
> Swine flu spreads to Asia as Hong Kong reports case
> The first confirmed case of swine flu in Asia was recorded in Hong Kong Friday after a Mexican man who arrived via Shanghai tested positive, Chief Executive Donald Tsang announced.
> 
> ...


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## Fishbone Jones (2 May 2009)

8)


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## mariomike (2 May 2009)

I am NOT trying to minimize the threat of influenza but, we know a lot about influenza. We know how people catch it, and we know how to minimize the risks.
SARS was a totally new disease that we knew nothing about and it caught us completely unprepared. 
SARS had a fatality rate of 20%.


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## CougarKing (3 May 2009)

Spain leads the number of confirmed cases in Europe with 60. Meanwhile, Mexico announces the swine flu in their country seems to be coming under control, though officals advise caution.



> http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090503/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/med_swine_flu/
> 
> Spain leads Europe in swine flu cases with 40
> By MARGIE MASON, AP Medical Writer Margie Mason, Ap Medical Writer
> ...






> Agence France-Presse - 5/3/2009 11:48 AM GMT
> Mexico sees swine flu coming under control
> Mexico was optimistic Sunday that the swine flu epidemic is coming under control, as diplomats complained over Mexicans being held in isolation in China although they show no signs of infection.
> 
> ...


----------



## Michael OLeary (5 May 2009)

*Afghanistan's Only Pig Quarantined in Flu Fear*
http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory?id=7508617



> By Golnar Motevalli
> May 5, 2009
> 
> KABUL (Reuters) - *Afghanistan's only known pig has been locked in a room, away from visitors to Kabul zoo where it normally grazes beside deer and goats, because people are worried it could infect them with the virus popularly known as swine flu.*
> ...



More at link.


----------



## PMedMoe (5 May 2009)

The pig should be glad.  Alberta has shown that transmission went the other way; from human to pig.


----------



## Michael OLeary (5 May 2009)

And, being an Afghan pig, he'd have to be the one that goes to market ... and blows himself up in revenge.

But that wouldn't be kosher would it?


----------



## 1feral1 (5 May 2009)

On the news here, its been reported in Egypt, they've murdered every pig in the whole country as a countermeasure of the swine flu. Sillyness!

I had pancakes and bacon (nice, thin and crisp) on Sunday morning. It sure was good, all cooked an a BBQ hot plate.

There's something about an infidel, isn't there.  :nod:


Cheers,

Wes


----------



## benny88 (5 May 2009)

Anyone else think that the world has bigger problems which have less recognition than swine flu? My condolences to the families of the people who have died, but 26 people pales in the face of other problems. The fear machine keeps turning.


----------



## Michael OLeary (5 May 2009)

For most people, the only issues are those that make the headlines of the day, and their attention spans last about as long as the media spotlight on an issue.

The media thinks for them, in bold font headlines and 15-second sound bites.


----------



## JBoyd (6 May 2009)

I get the distinct feeling the media is blowing this swine flu thing way out of proportion. They tell you there are X cases in B.C. but they never inform you just how many people died this flu season from the common flu


----------



## vonGarvin (6 May 2009)

I just hope that this drives down the price of live swine.  I'm about to purchase some pigs, and I could use a discount


----------



## JBoyd (6 May 2009)

Midnight Rambler said:
			
		

> I just hope that this drives down the price of live swine.  I'm about to purchase some pigs, and I could use a discount



Maybe, but it is also most likely going to destroy the Mexican tourism market, if not already has.


----------



## JSR OP (6 May 2009)

Michael O'Leary said:
			
		

> But that wouldn't be kosher would it?



I think the term your looking for is halal, not kosher.


----------



## Danjanou (6 May 2009)

JBoyd said:
			
		

> Maybe, but it is also most likely going to destroy the Mexican tourism market, if not already has.



Yeah like holding Canadian tourists hostage and threatening them last month in Cancun after Conquest Vacations went belly up hasn’t already. That and the oh murdering one Canadian tourist in Acapulco , another in Los Cabos and that couple in Playa Del Carmen a while back. The one where the cops destroyed evidence, contaminated the crime scene and tossed the blame on two soccer moms from Thunder Bay rather than the security with ties to the cartels who went AWOL the next day. 

Toss in the ongoing turf war between rival cartels this year with a body count in excess of 1,000. Yup Mexico will sure be getting my vacation dollars this year…..not. :

On the bright side Pork is on sale at Dominion and I’ve got a BBQ planned for Sunday. 8)


----------



## Shec (6 May 2009)

As of today there are a 1516 reported swine flu cases worldwide amongst a world wide population of 6.77 billion.  This makes it a global pandemic?????  A media provoked panic, most certainly !  I'd write more but I really must go & wash my hands, the papers tell me that I may have contracted the virus while I was trying to calculate the statistical significance on my calculator which needs another couple of dozen decimal places, excuse me.


----------



## PMedMoe (6 May 2009)

Shec said:
			
		

> As of today there are a 1516 reported swine flu cases worldwide amongst a world wide population of 6.77 billion.  This makes it a global pandemic?????



Definition: A global disease outbreak. 
A pandemic is a worldwide epidemic that, according to the World Health Organization (WHO), has to meet three conditions: 

The microbe infects and causes serious illness in humans.
Humans do not have immunity against the virus.
The virus spreads easily from person-to-person and survives within humans.

Source

You also have to remember that pandemic refers to how quickly the disease can spread.  For instance, the U.S. had 403 (reported) cases as of this morning.  Now the number is >620 reported. Is this slow diagnosis/lab results/reporting or is it starting to spread faster?  Who knows?



			
				Shec said:
			
		

> I'd write more but I really must go & wash my hands, the papers tell me that I may have contracted the virus while I was trying to calculate the statistical significance on my calculator which needs another couple of dozen decimal places, excuse me.



Only if someone with the virus has been using your calculator.


----------



## Kat Stevens (6 May 2009)

We're missing a golden opportunity here.  Weaponize the virus and spray it all over the taliban controlled areas.  Get into heaven now, pricks.





added, just in case: ;D    8)


----------



## Michael OLeary (6 May 2009)

PMedMoe said:
			
		

> Is this slow diagnosis/lab results/reporting or is it starting to spread faster?  Who knows?
> 
> Only if someone with the virus has been using your calculator.



Just a minute, I'll plug the numbers into my global pandemic computer model.  The contractors wasted no expense providing this tool to the world for the betterment of [wo]mankind.    ;D


----------



## CougarKing (6 May 2009)

This is just a suggestion. Maybe this should be merged with the main swine flu thread?


----------



## CougarKing (7 May 2009)

_*USS Dubuque*. The US Navy said Tuesday a warship's crew member became ill with swine flu and 50 others showed symptoms, leading military officials to cancel a scheduled deployment to the South Pacific. (AFP/US NAVY/File/Gregory Badger)_

http://www.military.com/news/article/navy-cancels-deployment-due-to-swine-flu.html



> Navy Cancels Deployment Due to Swine Flu
> May 06, 2009
> Associated Press
> 
> ...








_Soldiers load into a military aircraft boxes of relief supplies donated by the Chinese government to Mexico to help battle the outbreak of swine flu at the International airport in Mexico City, Tuesday, May 5, 2009. The aid consists of 6,300 boxes of medical and hygiene equipment.
(AP Photo/Miguel Tovar)_


----------



## Michael OLeary (7 May 2009)

For a little additional perspective:

*Five Disease Outbreaks That Are Worse Than Swine Flu*

Article link.

By Joshua Keating
Posted May 2009

CHOLERA 



> a cholera outbreak that began in August 2008 has infected more than 96,000 people in Zimbabwe, resulting in over 4,200 deaths.



SPINAL MENINGITIS



> Since the beginning of 2009, a meningitis outbreak has killed more than 1,900 people in the three countries -- 1,500 in Nigeria alone.



AIDS 



> China has attracted international attention for the draconian measures it has taken to prevent a swine flu outbreak, but it has been less quick to react to the AIDS epidemic that killed 7,000 people throughout the country in the first nine months of 2008 alone.



EBOLA 



> The most recent outbreak of the disease in Congo was declared over in mid-February after 32 cases and 15 deaths. 2007's outbreak was more severe, resulting in 187 deaths, 71 percent of those affected.



DENGUE FEVER



> While the world's attention has been focused on Mexico's swine flu, a severe dengue outbreak infected 50,000 people in Bolivia and more than 20,000 in Argentina. .... the death toll is thought to be in the hundreds.



More at link.


----------



## Michael OLeary (7 May 2009)

The pandemic continues:

*More than 2,000 cases of swine flu worldwide, 44 deaths: WHO*



> World health officials continue to see new human-to-human transmissions of swine flu in North America, but not on other continents, the World Health Organization said Thursday.
> 
> But the UN's top flu expert also warned the new strain of H1N1 flu virus still has the potential to infect up to two billion people in the next several months if it develops into a pandemic.
> 
> Dr. Keiji Fukuda, the World Health Organization's acting assistant director-general, said the figure wasn't a prediction, but that past experience with flu pandemics indicated it is "reasonable" to expect that up to a third or more of the world's population could get infected in the case of a pandemic.



More at link.

But, more importantly:


> *'Eating pork is not a danger,' UN health agency says*



Your bacon is safe.


----------



## c_canuk (7 May 2009)

average of 36 000 people are killed by the common flu in just the united states yearly... 

http://www.abcactionnews.com/news/local/story/Common-flu-far-more-deadly-than-swine-flu-in-U-S/SYwVqQF_3Umy0qY3qhp9zQ.cspx

the swine flu hysteria is pure hype


----------



## CougarKing (9 May 2009)

Yikes. And the Swine Flu kills its first victim in Canada.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/090508/national/flu_cda



> By The Canadian Press
> 
> EDMONTON - *Provincial health officials confirmed Friday that swine flu was a contributing factor in the death of a northern Alberta woman who had other chronic medical conditions. *
> 
> ...


----------



## CougarKing (9 May 2009)

Just an update:



> Agence France-Presse - 5/9/2009 9:22 AM GMT
> Australia reports first case of swine flu
> Australia on Saturday reported its first case of swine flu, after a woman tested positive for the disease as she returned from a trip to the United States, the government said.
> 
> ...


----------



## CougarKing (9 May 2009)

Click on the video link below for the latest update:

 Staranise- a spice that fights swine flu?


----------



## CougarKing (10 May 2009)

More updates:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090510/ap_on_he_me/med_swine_flu



> US, Costa Rica swine flu deaths reported
> By RORY MARSHALL and MARIANELA JIMENEZ, Associated Press Writers Rory Marshall And Marianela Jimenez, Associated Press Writers
> 56 mins ago
> 
> ...


----------



## Aerobicrunner (11 May 2009)

Ref:  http://vcds.dwan.dnd.ca/vcds-exec/pubs/canforgen/2009/085-09_e.asp

CANFORGEN 085/09 CDS 014/09 081253Z MAY 09
CF INFLUENZA FORCE PROTECTION MEASURES - MESSAGE 2
UNCLASSIFIED


REF. A : PLAN DE CONTINGENCE DES FC ET DU MDN POUR LES MESURES D 
INTERVENTION EN CAS D UNE ECLOSION DE GRIPPE PANDEMIQUE, 30 JANVIER 
2007 



1.  *NOTE THAT THIS MESSAGE APPLIES ONLY TO CF PERSONNEL (REG F, CLASS B AND CLASS C RESERVE SERVICE) * 


2.  GIVEN THE SITUATION EMERGING IN NORTH AMERICA WITH RESPECT TO INFLUENZA A (H1N1), THE CF HAS BEGUN INITIAL PRECAUTIONARY MEASURES INCLUDING IMPLEMENTING THE ALERT (PLANNING) PHASE OF REF A. THESE ACTIONS SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED AS AN INDICATOR OF ANY ANTICIPATED ESCALATION OF CONCERN BUT RATHER AS PRUDENT PREPARATION AIMED AT GUARANTEEING FORCE PROTECTION AND CONTINUITY OF OPERATIONS SHOULD THE SITUATION WORSEN. THE WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION AND PUBLIC HEALTH CANADA ADVISE THAT THE NUMBER OF INCIDENTS MAY EITHER ESCALATE OR DECREASE IN THE COMING WEEKS 


3.  IN LIGHT OF THE FACT THAT ALL A(H1N1) INFLUENZA CASES WITHIN CANADA HAVE A NEXUS ORIGINATING EITHER IN MEXICO, OR FROM DIRECT CONTACT WITH SOMEONE WHO HAS RECENTLY RETURNED FROM MEXICO, PART OF THE CF S PRUDENT PRELIMINARY ACTION IS TO THEREFORE RESTRICT CF PERSONNEL (REG F, CLASS B AND CLASS C RESERVE SERVICE) FROM TRAVELLING TO MEXICO FOR NON-OPERATIONAL PURPOSES UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE, REF B REFERS 


4.  THE PURPOSE OF THIS DIRECTION IS TO ENABLE FORCE PROTECTION TO ALLOW THE SUSTAINMENT OF OPERATIONS AS WELL AS TO SUPPORT THE GOVERNMENT OF CANADA (GOC) IN THEIR INFLUENZA MITIGATION AND RESPONSE EFFORTS 


5.   ALL CF MEMBERS RETURNING FROM MEXICO ARE TO FOLLOW THE PREVIOUSLY RELEASED GUIDANCE WITHIN REF C 


6.  FOR THOSE CF MEMBERS WHO HAVE MADE TRAVEL PLANS IN CONJUNCTION WITH PRE-APPROVED LEAVE AND INCURRED INCREMENTAL EXPENSES, AN APPLICATION CAN BE MADE THROUGH THEIR CHAIN OF COMMAND FOR REIMBURSEMENT OF ANYFINANCIAL LOSSES THAT CAN NOT BE RECOVERED FROM THE TRAVEL ORGANIZATION (AIRLINE, HOTEL, TRAVEL AGENCY) 


7.  ALL COMMANDING OFFICERS ARE DIRECTED TO PROMULGATE THE ENCLOSED TRAVEL RESTRICTION MEASURES AND STRESS THE IMPORTANCE OF PREVENTION AS THE BEST DEFENCE TO PREVENT THE SPREAD OF DISEASE 


8.  THE CF HEALTH SERVICES WILL ALSO BE INCREASING ITS VIGILANCE ON ALL SUSPECTED INFLUENZA CASES 


9.  YOU WILL BE ADVISED OF ANY FURTHER RELEVANT INFORMATION


----------



## GAP (13 May 2009)

Breaking News - Celebrity Swine Flu Fatality

And we all know who gave it to him…


----------



## ENGINEERS WIFE (13 May 2009)

Military says it's prepared if swine flu strikes in Afghanistan 

By Patrice Bergeron, THE CANADIAN PRESS 
    
  


  

KANDAHAR, Afghanistan - Canada's military says it will be prepared if swine flu strikes soldiers serving in Afghanistan. 

Canadian military personnel have put in place testing procedures at the hospital inside the base at Kandahar Airfield. 

"Part of our plan is to screen all incoming passengers into the area of responsibility here in Kandahar, so all of the personnel that we have are screened before they arrive," said Lt.-Col. Ron Wojtyk, a Canadian military surgeon and the head physician at the base's NATO hospital. 

He said every new arrival is required to fill out a brief questionnaire. 

The newcomers are asked if they have a cold, a fever or any muscle aches or pains. They are also asked if they have been to Mexico and if they have come into contact with anyone who has had an influenza-like illness. 

"If they say 'Yes' to any of those then they have to see a medical person," Wojtyk said. 

In the next few months, 21,000 American soldiers will be deployed in the Kandahar area where they will join more than 1,000 Canadian military personnel. 

Around 70,000 foreign soldiers are serving across Afghanistan. 

There have been no reported cases of swine flu in the country, which already faces a litany of public health problems. 

The only known pig in Afghanistan, a predominantly Muslim country, was quarantined recently at a zoo in Kabul. 

"From what I've seen, we're well prepared," said Wojtyk. 

If a soldier shows symptoms of influenza, they will be given a test for a general flu. 

"If the (general) test is positive, we treat it as if the person is suffering from swine flu, as a preventive measure, to keep the infection from spreading," said Wojtyk, adding that samples will be shipped to labs outside of Kandahar for analysis. 

He also said the hospital has an adequate supply of medication to treat the flu if there is an outbreak. 

Canadian military lawyer John McKee said the situation could become complicated because there are no laws outlining the responsibilities of NATO armies in the case of a pandemic. 

"We've got a lot of new troops coming in now from various nations and what if some bring it?" McKee said. 

"We have to look at what the laws are, we have to look at the laws in different nations, we have to look at ... security concerns. 

"We think we've got the right answer and it works, but then one of the variables changes, and this is the interesting part of the game." 


http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/Canada/2009/05/13/9448546-cp.html


----------



## CougarKing (17 May 2009)

Yikes.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/090517/national/flu_summer_wave



> By Helen Branswell, The Canadian Press
> 
> TORONTO - *Spread of swine flu in North America may not dampen down in coming weeks as was first expected, some health officials and flu experts are now suggesting.
> 
> ...


----------



## Yrys (19 May 2009)

No Guidance on How to Rein In the Flu, NY Times

As schools shut down because of the flu — with a dozen closed in New York and hundreds in Texas and Japan
 — health officials are asking a question for which there is little guidance, even in pandemic plans: what is 
the best way to stop an epidemic that spreads mostly in schools rather than in nursing homes?

Many school officials have shut the doors and had the custodians disinfect the empty buildings.

But that leaves parents confused and frustrated. Those whose schools remain open may fear that their 
children are in danger, and those with healthy children whose schools close may feel that officials have 
overreacted, burdening them with day-care costs and denying their young ones an education.

Even guidance from the top is ambivalent.

On May 4, the acting director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Dr. Richard E. Besser, 
said “closing schools is not effective” at halting the spread. Previously, the centers had advised schools 
to shut for up to two weeks if a confirmed case was found.

On Monday, New York City closed four more Queens schools after outbreaks of flu symptoms, bringing 
the total to 16 ordered shut since last week. In Texas, hundreds have been closed at various times.

“There’s no right answer,” Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg said at a news conference. “I’ve asked the question, 
‘What would you do, Dr. Frieden, if you wanted to prevent the spread of flu around the entire student 
population?’ And the answer is, ‘Closing the schools for a month, prohibit all interaction among kids outside 
of school, and even then there’s no guarantee that you can do that.’ The bottom line is, case-by-case basis 
is probably the right thing.”

(Mr. Bloomberg was referring to Dr. Thomas R. Frieden, the city’s health commissioner, who has just been 
nominated to be chief of the C.D.C.)

...

One thing is clear, infection control experts say: disinfecting closed schools is pointless. Flu viruses are
believed to live on objects for perhaps two to eight hours, so a week’s closing will kill them. But when 
students return, if a few are sick, every cafeteria table, desk, lab beaker, doorknob, bathroom tap and 
basketball will soon be recontaminated.

Washing schools “is done for looks,” said Michael Olesen, a Minnesota infection control specialist. “It’s not 
a rational approach.”

The C.D.C.’s swine flu Web sitehas infection-control guidelines for many settings: hospitals, nursing homes, 
day-care centers and even dialysis clinics. But it has nothing specific to the core of this outbreak: schools 
full of teenagers. Teenagers, experts say, are different from the victims of seasonal influenza. The 
bed-ridden, the very ill and infants can be forced to practice good hygiene, or isolated or sent home if 
they won’t.

But teenagers resist tedious advice to wash their hands for 20 seconds, cover every cough with a tissue 
or sleeve and stay away from other teenagers. If school is closed, they are likely to get together at the 
park or the mall. Keeping sick students out of school is the most crucial step, said Dr. Yoko Furuya, an 
infection control specialist at NewYork-Presbyterian/Columbia hospital. But that can be impractical. And 
students can shed virus for a day before they are sick.

“I’d lean toward getting surgical masks on them and trying to get to the end of the school year,” said 
Mr. Olesen, who is reluctant to see schools shut. “The masks capture all those droplets at the point of 
release.”

And how, he was asked, could students be made to do that?

“I don’t know how, but they make them do other things,” he said.

Amy D. Nichols, chief of infection control for the University of California at San Francisco Medical Center, 
said she would like to see “schools just as awash in alcohol hand rubs as hospitals are, so it’s easy and 
quick to clean one’s hands.” Ms. Nichols favors making students disinfect their hands before entering each 
class, the gym or the cafeteria.

“In junior high, you want to be like everyone else,” she said. “So schools should have wall-mounted push 
dispensers. That way it becomes part of the culture of the schools. The more people push the handle, the 
more everybody else does.” She also favors cleaning surfaces as often as is practical, because other risks 
like antibiotic-resistant bacteria persist longer than flu.

What to do with sick students whose working parents cannot afford babysitters is another problem. Asked 
if schools could set up cots in a gym for ill students, Mr. Olesen demurred. “I don’t know,” he said. “Cots 
for kids in puberty with their hormones raging? That’s a whole other public health problem.”

Even if schools make it to summer break, hot weather may slow, but not solve the problem, the C.D.C. said 
Monday. “We’d love to see a decrease in cases, but in the past there have been outbreaks of seasonal 
influenza even in summer camps,” said Dr. Anne Schuchat, the agency’s interim deputy director for public 
health.

Confirming anecdotal observations that this flu concentrates in young people, Dr. Schuchat said preliminary 
studies of family transmission showed that when one member gets infected, the most likely to follow are 
those under 18, not parents or grandparents. .

In Geneva, swine flu topped the agenda of the annual assembly of world’s health ministers. Britain, Japan and
other countries with many cases argued that World Health Organization pandemic alerts should measure a 
virus’s severity, not just its spread. Dr. Margaret Chan, the health organization’s director-general, said she 
would consider keeping the alert level at 5, and warned that the virus’s initial mildness had “handed the world
 a grace period.”

“I strongly urge you to look closely at anything and everything we can do, collectively, to protect developing 
countries from once again bearing the brunt of a global contagion,” Dr. Chan said.

_Reporting was contributed by Anemona Hartocollis, David Chen and Sharon Otterman._


----------



## Yrys (23 May 2009)

Mexico City lifts swine flu curbs, Friday, 22 May 2009 05:13 UK






_Businesses in Mexico City have been 
hit hard by the flu outbreak_

Mexico City has lifted all restrictions imposed last month, following an outbreak 
of swine flu across Mexico. Mayor Marcelo Ebrard said no new infections had been 
reported for a week in the capital and there was no longer a need to wear mask 
in public places.

The city virtually ground to a halt at the height of the flu emergency, with schools, 
bars and cinemas closed. Mexico's flu death toll rose by three to 78 on Thursday, 
officials said. Some 4,000 people have been infected.

*Mayor's plea*

Authorities in the sprawling capital on Thursday lowered its four-level alert system 
from "yellow" to "green" - the lowest level.

"We can calm down now," Mayor Ebrard said. "Now you can come to the city without 
any risk," he said, adding that there was "no longer any need" to wear masks in public 
places. However, the mayor urged residents of the city to remain.

The World Health Organization said on Thursday that 41 countries had reported 11,034 
cases of swine flu , or influenza A (H1N1) infection, including 85 deaths. The world 
remains at the second-highest flu alert level, which means an "imminent pandemic".


----------



## Yrys (4 Jun 2009)

Spread of Swine Flu Puts Japan in Crisis Mode, May 21, 2009


Models’ Projections for Flu Miss Mark by Wide Margin

In the waning days of April, as federal officials were declaring a public health emergency and the world 
seemed gripped by swine flu panic, two rival supercomputer teams made projections about the epidemic 
that were surprisingly similar — and surprisingly reassuring. By the end of May, they said, there would 
be only 2,000 to 2,500 cases in the United States.

May’s over. They were a bit off.

On May 15, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated that there were “upwards of 100,000” 
cases in the country, even though only 7,415 had been confirmed at that point.

The agency declines to update that estimate just yet. But Tim Germann, a computational scientist who 
worked on a 2006 flu forecast model at Los Alamos National Laboratory, said he imagined there were 
now “a few hundred thousand” cases. (At their peaks, epidemics are thought to double in as little as 
three days, which could drive the number into the millions, but Dr. Germann said he would not use 
such a rapid doubling rate unless it was a cold November and no countermeasures, like closing 
schools, were being taken.)

What went wrong?

The leaders of both the Northwestern University and Indiana University teams seemed a bit abashed 
when they were asked that last week. Northwestern’s predictions got the most publicity because of 
the eye-catching metric for predicting spread: data from Where’s George?, a Web site that tracks 
millions of dollar bills as they move around the country.

Dirk Brockmann, the engineering professor who led the team, said the realization that his initial 
estimates had been far too low struck him on May 11, when British, Mexican and World Health 
Organization researchers published a study in the journal Science tracing the first days of the 
outbreak. They estimated that it had begun in rural La Gloria, Mexico, in mid-February and 
that by April 30 there were 6,000 to 32,000 infections throughout Mexico.

“The numbers of reported cases in Mexico that we plugged in at the beginning of our model were 
orders of magnitude lower,” Dr. Brockmann said. He is still proud, he said, of how well his model 
predicted geographical spread in the United States. He had to adjust it for the unexpected infusion 
of cases stemming from students at St. Francis Preparatory School in New York City who brought 
the virus back from spring break in Cancún, but otherwise it was accurate in predicting that 
California, Texas, Illinois and Florida would be hot spots.

Alessandro Vespignani, the informatics professor who led Indiana’s team, was a little more defensive, 
suggesting that he was either misquoted or had misunderstood the question on May 2 when he was 
reported as estimating that there would be about 2,500 cases by month’s end. His first model 
predicted 9,500 cases by May 24, he said.

Dr. Vespignani said he felt the C.D.C. estimate of 100,000 or more was “a bit of an overshooting.”
However, he pointed out, his adjustment of his figures on May 17 had an upper estimate of 100,000 
for the end of May, and if one assumed that the disease centers counted asymptomatic cases and 
he did not, then that could stretch to 150,000.

Decisions by the C.D.C. and state health departments to stop confirming most cases in laboratories 
“is making our life miserable,” he said, adding, “If you don’t have good data, you don’t make good 
predictions.”

Both professors said they would use the experience to refine their models for the future. Dr. Brockman 
has not updated his since May 9. “For this disease, we won’t put out another projection,” he said. “Once 
it’s in the dispersal phase, exponential growth kicks in. You don’t need a sophisticated model anymore.”


----------



## Michael OLeary (9 Jun 2009)

*WHO: Swine flu 'very close' to pandemic*



> By THE CANADIAN PRESS
> Last Updated: 9th June 2009, 12:45pm
> 
> *The World Health Organization says it is very close to declaring that the swine flu outbreak is a pandemic.
> ...


----------



## CougarKing (11 Jun 2009)

And it's official, according to the WHO- swine flu is now a global pandemic.

http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2009/06/11/s...o-pandemic.html



> *The world is in a swine flu pandemic, WHO tells some members*
> Last Updated: Thursday, June 11, 2009 | 10:17 AM ET Comments44Recommend28CBC News
> The World Health Organization has privately told several countries that the global pandemic level will be raised to Phase 6 before the end of Thursday, as experts held an emergency meeting in Geneva to discuss the spread of the virus.
> 
> ...


----------



## CougarKing (13 Jun 2009)

A Swine Flu Vaccine this soon?



> http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/31269066/ns/health-swine_flu/"
> 
> BASEL, Switzerland - Swiss pharmaceuticals company Novartis AG said Friday it has successfully produced a first batch of swine flu vaccine weeks ahead of expectations.
> 
> ...


----------



## PMedMoe (13 Jun 2009)

CougarDaddy said:
			
		

> A Swine Flu Vaccine this soon?



Well yeah, who wouldn't want to jump on that money train?


----------



## Yrys (13 Jun 2009)

PMedMoe said:
			
		

> Well yeah, who wouldn't want to jump on that money train?



I think a lot of people are more nervous that they should be from what 
the pandemic is so far. They probably don't know that the graduation from 
the WHO to 6 isn't relate to how much you're gettng sick from that flu,
but to how many people have it officially.

"The World Health Organization recently declared a pandemic following a 
sharp increase in the number of cases in Australia."


article on the spead of it in England :

 'Unpredictable' swine flu spreads


----------



## Yrys (14 Jun 2009)

Flu hits Canada's native peoples





_It is unclear why swine flu rates are 
higher in Inuit communities_

Canada is investigating whether Inuit communities may be particularly badly hit by swine flu, 
health officials say.

The World Health Organization thinks there are more cases than expected among young people 
in the aboriginal population living in northern Canada. Recent days have seen a spike in H1N1 
flu among the Inuit and the country's isolated indigenous communities. The swine flu virus can
have more serious effects on people living in poverty, the WHO says.

Of fewer than 100 people infected in Nunavut, the vast Arctic homeland of Inuits, 10 were 
admitted to hospital. In Manitoba province, 16 of the 24 people in intensive care because 
of swine flu are from native communities.

The BBC's Lee Carter in Toronto says there are no clear reasons why swine flu rates are higher 
in Canada's indigenous communities. But poverty, substandard, overcrowded housing and 
underlying health problems are thought to be the most likely culprits, he says.

Canada's federal health minister, Leona Aglukkaq, who is herself Inuit, said additional personnel 
and supplies have been sent to the Inuit communities. "This is a concern and we are investigating," 
she said. "We must resist speculation, rely on the science and report only on confirmed cases."

Four people have died from swine flu in Canada though most of the 2,978 confirmed cases have 
been mild.


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## Yrys (15 Jun 2009)

Flu outbreak on reserves exposes system flaws, _CTV.ca News Staff_

With the world now officially facing a flu pandemic, the deplorable situation in the country's northern native 
reserves is exposing flaws in the country's pandemic preparedness plan. In northern Manitoba, many 
communities are struggling with a severe flu outbreak. Across the province, 24 people with flu symptoms 
are breathing with ventilators and two-thirds of them are aboriginal.

In the past week, 11 residents of the Garden Hill First Nation alone have been airlifted to hospitals back 
in the city, most with severe flu symptoms. Garden Hill Chief David Harper says the equipment at the 
nursing station on his reserve is old or broken and nurses don't have the support of a full medical team 
as they would have in an urban clinic.

Phil Fontaine, national chief of the Assembly of First Nations, says one cluster of northern Manitoba reserves 
is home to about 10,000 people and doesn't have a single hospital.

Health Canada has put out a tender for nurses to work in 24 isolated reserves but says it's struggling to find 
enough nurses to keep medical stations in northern Manitoba open. "Health Canada is having great difficulty 
recruiting and retaining employed nurses in the nursing stations and two federal hospitals located in northern 
Manitoba on reserves," the tender states. "Without adequate service, the nursing stations and hospitals may 
have to close for periods of time which could result in severe medical liability."

Public health officials are saying that while Canada's pandemic preparedness plan includes specific protocols 
for First Nations communities, there's been no money attached to it. In Garden Hill, Harper says the band 
has already spent $2,900 so it can go and buy its own pandemic supplies, such as masks - supplies that the 
federal government was supposed to provide.

Jim Wolfe, the regional director for Health Canada's aboriginal branch, says the government is working 
closely with the province and aboriginal leaders to address the issue. Manitoba's chief public health officer, 
Dr. Joel Kettner, says the response to swine flu has not been perfect, but has been better than in previous 
disease outbreaks.

The virus's spread among Canada's aboriginals caught the attention of the World Health Organization earlier 
this week, though the agency also noted that disease can take a harsher toll on people facing poverty, 
substandard housing and underlying health problems.

Canadian officials say there is no evidence to support suggestions the virus's impact varies between ethnic 
groups. "To make conclusions based on a couple of communities that this is somehow a disease that is 
worse in a particular ethnic group -- it's much too early to make any of those kinds of conclusions or 
presumptions," Dr. David Butler-Jones, Canada's chief public health officer, said at a news conference 
Thursday. "We may find that in the future, but at the moment, evidence is it doesn't matter who you are; 
everyone is susceptible," said Butler-Jones.

While the situation in northern native communities is severe, for the rest of Canada, the virus has not been 
causing much serious illness. Canada has had 2,978 confirmed cases of the H1N1 flu, and about five per cent 
of those have required hospitalization for treatment. While there have been four deaths from the strain, all 
of the victims were suffering other health problems.

Infectious disease expert Neil Rau says he believe that many more Canadians have gotten the virus than what
the officials numbers indicate. "The serious cases are only the tip of the iceberg. The rest of people who have
this virus get mild disease or don't even go to the doctor," he told Canada AM Friday. "Granted there have 
been some cases of otherwise healthy people getting it and that's what drew the initial alarm. But in Mexico, 
perhaps millions of people had seen this virus before those deaths were described."

Canada's health minister says the Thursday's decision by the WHO to declare H1N1 a flu pandemic will do 
little to change Canada's response. "I want to reassure Canada... we were prepared for this decision and 
this decision does not change our approach in Canada," Health Minister Leona Aglukkaq said at a Thursday 
afternoon news conference. "It is primarily a technical decision (by the WHO)," Aglukkaq said. "Thankfully, 
the vast majority of illnesses remain mild."

Canada's chief public health officer said the WHO move was "based on the spread of the virus, not the 
severity noting that within Canada, "the virus continues to behave like the seasonal flu." "We will continue 
to tailor our domestic responses and public health measure to our own situation and to the evolving needs 
of Canadians," Butler-Jones said Thursday. Rau says he believe that even globally, nothing has changed, 
and the WHO's decision was a technical one based on geographic spread alone.

"The virus has not changed since we've been observing this story. What has changed is the geographic 
spread," he said. "Spread alone is not cause for alarm. It's if you have a virulent or serious virus that 
is also spreading." "So I'm not sure that I'm more excited about this than seasonal flu. Every year, 
seasonal flu also spreads all over the world and we don't call it a pandemic because it would get to be 
a kind of a tiring story. So I hope we're dealing with something a little different here, but it's not playing 
itself out to be that different so far."

H1N1 has been reported in 74 countries, has caused 145 confirmed deaths and almost 30,000 cases 
of illnesses.


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## Yrys (22 Jun 2009)

China produces first A/H1N1 flu vaccines, to hit market in September, People's Daily

China's first batch of A/H1N1 flu vaccines were produced by a pharmaceutical 
firm Monday. The vaccines are expected to hit the market in September after 
safety tests in labs and clinical tests, said Hualan Biological Engineering Inc.

The company received the seed virus from a World Health Organization (WHO) 
lab on June 4.

_Source: Xinhua_


Isn't a month not enough time to produce a vaccine ?!?


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## PMedMoe (22 Jun 2009)

Yrys said:
			
		

> Isn't a month not enough time to produce a vaccine ?!?



A month may seem like a short time, but companies have been making regular flu vaccines for years now.  This one would be very specific but they have the virus already so no guessing.

Besides, China was slow compared to Switzerland:

First batch of swine flu vaccine produced


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## Yrys (22 Jun 2009)

Thanks for the answer.

And W W, the Swiss were swift!


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## PMedMoe (29 Jun 2009)

*Air traffic patterns used to predict H1N1 spread*
Article Link

Physicians at Toronto's St. Michael's Hospital say that by quickly evaluating air traffic patterns around the world, they can predict how the virus will spread globally.

Dr. Kamran Khan, an infectious disease physician at St. Michael's, and colleagues analyzed flight itineraries of more than 2.3 million passengers who departed Mexico on commercial flights in March and April.

The research team found that countries that received more travellers from Mexico were more likely to import cases of the H1N1 flu virus.

As well, the cities that received the largest number of travellers from Mexico were more likely to have imported H1N1 flu cases.

The researchers found that welcoming 1,400 travellers from Mexico put a country at high risk of imported cases of the virus.

"It's intuitive that where people are travelling, infectious diseases are likely to follow in tandem," Khan told CTV Toronto on Monday. 

More on link


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## PMedMoe (9 Jul 2009)

*Canada, United States on hunt for swine flu swindlers
Health officials crack down on Internet quackery*
*Article Link*

Health authorities in Canada and the United States are on high alert for Internet scams related to swine flu and are cracking down on websites that are selling unauthorized products and making illegal claims about how to prevent and treat the illness.

Health Canada and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration are tracking the websites and have issued dozens of warning letters to force the removal of offensive claims.

Among the products that have popped up online are a pill that is purported to cure the flu within hours; a spray that claimed to leave a layer of ionic silver on the skin that would kill the virus; fake test kits; a shampoo; nasal sprays; wall-mounted ultraviolet light machines that allegedly prevent the spread and destroy the virus; and an electronic instrument that declared its "photobionic energy" and "deeply penetrating mega-frequency life-force energy waves" would prevent infection. The machine costs thousands of dollars.

Attaching a claim to an unapproved product is illegal and authorities are not taking it lightly.

More on link

I guess it was only a metter of time before the greedy quacks tried to cash in on this.   :


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