# Toronto's Statistical Crime Rate



## EpicBeardedMan (23 Jul 2018)

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> When I saw the headline I thought it may have been Chicago scary that it happened in Toronto,a place I thought was safe.My prayers are with those injured and I hope there will be a speedy recovery.
> 
> https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/multiple-people-shot-outside-restaurant-in-toronto-police-say/ar-BBKXTCL?ocid=spartanntp



Toronto hasnt been safe in a loooong time. They are suffering from a shooting epidemic currently. Gun crime is at an all time high. At one point they had 8 shooting incidents in one week..I believe last month.


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## BeyondTheNow (23 Jul 2018)

EpicBeardedMan said:
			
		

> Toronto hasnt been safe in a loooong time. They are suffering from a shooting epidemic currently. Gun crime is at an all time high. At one point they had 8 shooting incidents in one week..I believe last month.



On the contrary, Toronto is still ranked one of the safest cities in the world taking into account its geographical size, population and demographics. There’s no shortage of sources backing up this data. Unfortunately, we (Canadians) aren’t immune to this sort of thing. While there has been a concentration of incidents as of late, it does no good throwing out blanket statements saying that “Toronto”, as a whole, is no longer considered safe.


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## Cloud Cover (23 Jul 2018)

I'm not so sure about that T6.  

"The police came first and we took the piece of clothing, that I tied the legs with, off and I tried to find cord so to tie it off better and tighter. So we wrapped their leg with I think extension cord, I'm not really sure, speaker wire or something. And we were just trying to all work together, I guess. And then paramedics came took care of them ... and took them out."

I know what you mean by engaging the shooter and taking him out, but not all heroes need a gun, badge or uniform.


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## EpicBeardedMan (23 Jul 2018)

BeyondTheNow said:
			
		

> On the contrary, Toronto is still ranked one of the safest cities in the world taking into account its geographical size, population and demographics. There’s no shortage of sources backing up this data. Unfortunately, we (Canadians) aren’t immune to this sort of thing. While there has been a concentration of incidents as of late, it does no good throwing out blanket statements saying that “Toronto”, as a whole, is no longer considered safe.



Can you show me facts to back up this claim up within the last few months? Would be interesting to see how Toronto is still "one of the safest cities" after an all time high gun crime epidemic and the types of murders/serial killer crimes going on (Bodies being pulled out of planters, kids being shot in a playground, people being mowed down by a van on the street , etc). Are you also able to tell me about cases and ongoing investigations that the police service doesnt tell the public, as is the case with every police service?

Going off of TPS's publicly available stats, murders are up 129% from last year alone.

 I believe your statement is false, and you are going off feelings rather than facts.


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## Remius (23 Jul 2018)

EpicBeardedMan said:
			
		

> Can you show me facts to back up this claim up within the last few months? Would be interesting to see how Toronto is still "one of the safest cities" after an all time high gun crime epidemic and the types of murders/serial killer crimes going on (Bodies being pulled out of planters, kids being shot in a playground, people being mowed down by a van on the street , etc). Are you also able to tell me about cases and ongoing investigations that the police service doesnt tell the public, as is the case with every police service?
> 
> Going off of TPS's publicly available stats, murders are up 129% from last year alone.
> 
> I believe your statement is false, and you are going off feelings rather than facts.



This report from the Economist rates Toronto the 4th safest city.  That was in Oct 2017.  Even with the spike in homicides I doubt they will move below the top ten.

Even with the spike they are only slightly above New York's homicide rate for this time of the year.

Remember that "safest" includes a whole pile of factors. 

It isn't just "feeling" it is actually a fact.


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## EpicBeardedMan (23 Jul 2018)

Remius said:
			
		

> This report from the Economist rates Toronto the 4th safest city.  That was in Oct 2017.  Even with the spike in homicides I doubt they will move below the top ten.
> 
> Even with the spike they are only slightly above New York's homicide rate for this time of the year.
> 
> ...



Again, October of 2017, before the gun crime epidemic. Outdated.


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## Eye In The Sky (23 Jul 2018)

Remius said:
			
		

> Even with the spike they are only slightly above New York's homicide rate for this time of the year.



Well, there's *safe* in a nutshell right there!


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## EpicBeardedMan (23 Jul 2018)

Eye In The Sky said:
			
		

> Well, there's *safe* in a nutshell right there!



Yeah, no kidding. Halfway through the 2018 year and we have an increase of 129% in murders... sounds safe. Crime statistics hasnt been updated since 2016 so there isnt an *accurate* way of comparing Canadian cities to one another...but youd have to be pretty dense to not think a spike of 129% (Would be higher if you counted all violent crimes btw, approximately 153%) in 7 months isnt absurd.


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## Remius (23 Jul 2018)

EpicBeardedMan said:
			
		

> Again, October of 2017, before the gun crime epidemic. Outdated.



And it is statistically not going to knock them off the safest city list.  In fact I bet they stay in the top 10 even with that. 

You haven't shown any facts other than the gun crime rate has gone up.  That is true.  But it may not affect the statistics or all the factors that affect safety overall.

So until all the stats are in say Oct 2018, we'll have a better picture but I doubt they get knocked out of the top ten.  Which still makes it one of the safest cities in the world.

Like I said, you are focusing on guns.  Only one factor in what makes a city safe.


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## Remius (23 Jul 2018)

EpicBeardedMan said:
			
		

> Yeah, no kidding. Halfway through the 2018 year and we have an increase of 129% in murders... sounds safe. Crime statistics hasnt been updated since 2016 so there isnt an *accurate* way of comparing Canadian cities to one another...but youd have to be pretty dense to not think a spike of 129% (Would be higher if you counted all violent crimes btw, approximately 153%) in 7 months isnt absurd.



nobody thinks that the spike isn't absurd.

You would have to be pretty dense to think that given that since no one here claimed that.


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## Fishbone Jones (23 Jul 2018)

Statistics don't mean anything if you are stuck in an urban microcosm, one block square, with an active shooter wandering the area. 'Good' statistics don't stop kids being shot in playgrounds.

It is useless to try argue something like this with statistics. It's a diversion from the real situation.

Start concentrating on the cause.


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## EpicBeardedMan (23 Jul 2018)

Remius said:
			
		

> And it is statistically not going to knock them off the safest city list.  In fact I bet they stay in the top 10 even with that.
> 
> You haven't shown any facts other than the gun crime rate has gone up.  That is true.  But it may not affect the statistics or all the factors that affect safety overall.
> 
> ...



That wasnt the stats for guns in general...thats the MURDER percentage increase from just 7 months ago until this point. Every single category of violent crime (Assault, Sexual assault, etc) has seen an increase with the exception of Robbery.


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## EpicBeardedMan (23 Jul 2018)

recceguy said:
			
		

> Statistics don't mean anything if you are stuck in an urban microcosm, one block square, with an active shooter wandering the area. 'Good' statistics don't stop kids being shot in playgrounds.
> 
> It is useless to try argue something like this with statistics. It's a diversion from the real situation.
> 
> Start concentrating on the cause.



...except Policing is based off of numbers and statistics..it lets us see where the crime is happening and to adjust units accordingly and lets us focus on a particular thing since something is obviously wrong here.


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## Cloud Cover (23 Jul 2018)

Is comparing Toronto to cities like New York, Jo-Berg helpful?  What good does that or any comparison accomplish when the lead starts flying anyway?
Is a tangible, simmering sentiment of rage in Toronto that seems to span all cultures, races, identities etc. such as in some of those other "world class" cities.


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## Fishbone Jones (23 Jul 2018)

EpicBeardedMan said:
			
		

> ...except Policing is based off of numbers and statistics..it lets us see where the crime is happening and to adjust units accordingly and lets us focus on a particular thing since something is obviously wrong here.



This discussion is not even about the shooting. It's a pissing contest about numbers. It was morphed almost immediately, by talk of statistics. Something that is a dark art to begin with and something that will not provide the truth. It has one objective and that's to win the reader over to the side of the article.

The discussion on whether TO is safe or not, is moot.

You should be talking about the act, the person, the causes and remedies.

You should be talking about how to mitigate these incidents.

You should not be arguing statistics, that someone paid for in 2016, to make a point for their article.

You don't need to know, the city's percentages for crime, when eight people are shot by one person.


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## mariomike (23 Jul 2018)

EpicBeardedMan said:
			
		

> (Bodies being pulled out of planters,



Regarding Toronto's homicide statistics,

I wonder how many bodies are stashed around this town, including those dumped into Lake Ontario and the inland waterways?

And, the ravine system. 

Topographically, Toronto is like San Francisco's hilly terrain - turned upside down. 

Despite Metro's growing population, the ravines have been left in their natural state. There has been almost a complete ban on development in the ravines since 1954.

Last night's shooting spree on the Danforth reminded me of when they found a lady not far away. Under the showroom floor of a Chev/Olds dealer on the Danforth. She was in an oil drum.
She had gone MIA from the Linsmore Tavern ( it's still there ) in 1943. She was accidentally discovered ( and identified ) during a demolition in 1995.

Her husband ( a construction worker who poured the concrete ) told the other patrons that she ran off with some guy.

A few years ago, two friends of mine were sent to a call in Riverdale for a "baby not breathing". 
It was wrapped in a 1925 newspaper! 

Those are just a couple of examples of bodies discovered years later - by accident. 

But, it makes one wonder how often that sort of thing happened in the pre-internet era?


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## Jarnhamar (23 Jul 2018)

Here's a list of shootings in Toronto in the last 7 years from Wikipedia


YEAR/ Homicides / Gun-deaths / Shootings / Victims

2011 	51 	27	227 	281 
2012 	56 	33 	213 	289
2013 	57 	22 	202 	255
2014 	58 	27 	180 	196
2015  	57 	27 	250 	388
2016 	74    41 	407 	581
2017 	65 	39 	392 	591 

You'll see an increase in shootings and victims in 2015 which rises significantly again in 2016 and 2017.

So what happened starting in 2015 and especially the two years afterwards? Why the large spike?


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## Remius (23 Jul 2018)

Also take a look when I those years those spikes happen. 

That may also be an indicator.


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## BeyondTheNow (23 Jul 2018)

EpicBeardedMan said:
			
		

> Can you show me facts to back up this claim up within the last few months? Would be interesting to see how Toronto is still "one of the safest cities" after an all time high gun crime epidemic and the types of murders/serial killer crimes going on (Bodies being pulled out of planters, kids being shot in a playground, people being mowed down by a van on the street , etc). Are you also able to tell me about cases and ongoing investigations that the police service doesnt tell the public, as is the case with every police service?
> 
> Going off of TPS's publicly available stats, murders are up 129% from last year alone.
> 
> I believe your statement is false, and you are going off feelings rather than facts.



https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/video-toronto-still-one-of-the-safest-cities-in-the-world-tory/
July 2, 2018

Canada: Toronto ranked 32 in the country for “most dangerous city” 
https://www.macleans.ca/canadas-most-dangerous-places/
2018

https://www.toronto.ca/city-government/data-research-maps/toronto-progress-portal/world-rankings-for-toronto/
2018

http://safecities.economist.com
(Attachment)
2018

http://dailyhive.com/toronto/canada-most-dangerous-cities-2018

In Canada, not even top 10 “Finally, despite seeing its crime rate rise from the prior year, Toronto is ranked 124th, with a CSI score of 59...”

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_Toronto Updated: within last 30 days

Toronto

Total shootings/occurrences 2016: 407
total shootings/occurrences 2018: 208

https://www.narcity.com/news/here-are-the-most-dangerous-cities-in-canada-right-now-ranked-by-the-crime
2018

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/the-most-violent-cities-in-the-world-latin-america-dominates-list-with-41-countries-in-top-50-a6995186.html
2016

https://www.numbeo.com/crime/rankings_by_country.jsp
Canada doesn’t even make the list.

https://safearound.com/danger-rankings/cities/
2017

Super-quick search. Shall I go on? I stated plainly there are several sources. Note I didn’t accuse you of arguing your “feelings” when you didn’t cite any sources to back up your initial Toronto-is-a-OMG-we’re-going-to-die city.  :

It’s a big city with big city problems, but those problems are significantly smaller/lower than many other areas. As for my “feelings” for the city go, I hold zero love for it. Driving to the Denison each time I have to travel to my home unit reminds me of that every time.


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## mariomike (23 Jul 2018)

BeyondTheNow said:
			
		

> Canada: Toronto ranked 32 in the country for “most dangerous city”
> https://www.macleans.ca/canadas-most-dangerous-places/
> 2018



That would be based upon Toronto's census population only. Not included would be its business and tourist population.

Add to that Canadians from other municipalities and provinces, Americans, and people from around the world temporarily in the city for employment, business, tourism etc. 

eg: One third of Canada’s population lives within a 100 mile radius of Toronto. One-half of the population of the United States is within one day’s drive of the city. 

QUOTE

According to newly-released statistics by Tourism Toronto, the region hosted more than 43.7 million visitors in 2017 and more than 15 million visitors stayed overnight in Toronto — both figures shattering previous records.

In terms of international travellers in Toronto, visitors from China continued to top the list in 2017 with approximately 319,000 visitors.


2017 Toronto tourism statistics compared to 2016:

– 43,730,000 total visitors to Toronto (increase of 3.6 per cent)
– 28,200,000 same-day visitors (increase of 3.3 per cent)
– 15,530,000 overnight visitors (increase of 4.1 per cent)
– 2,973,000 U.S. overnight visitors (increase of 4.8 per cent)
– 5,120,000 international overnight visitors (increase of 5.6 per cent)
– $8,840,000,000 in spending (increase of 9.1 per cent)
– $1,763,000,000 in U.S. visitor spending (increase of 10.5 per cent)

Visitors from international/overseas markets in 2017 compared to 2016:

– China, 319,000 (increase of 9.1 per cent)
– United Kingdom, 263,000 (decrease of six per cent)
– India, 161,000 (increase of 31 per cent)
– South Korea, 122,000 (increase of 24 per cent)
– Japan, 95,000 (decrease of two per cent)
– Germany, 93,000 (decrease of two per cent)
– France, 84,000 (increase of six per cent)
– Italy, 79,000 (no increase or decrease)
– Mexico, 75,000 (increase of 72 per cent)
– Brazil, 71,000 (increase of 23 per cent)
https://globalnews.ca/news/3983802/toronto-tourism-2017-visitors/



			
				BeyondTheNow said:
			
		

> As for my “feelings” for the city go, I hold zero love for it. Driving to the Denison each time I have to travel to my home unit reminds me of that every time.



Considering the traffic, lack of parking, and the price of a house in the 416, probably just as well.  

I like to take the subway downtown just to marvel at the "Manhattanization" that has taken place since I retired.


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## Colin Parkinson (23 Jul 2018)

mariomike said:
			
		

> Regarding Toronto's homicide statistics,
> 
> I wonder how many bodies are stashed around this town, including those dumped into Lake Ontario and the inland waterways?
> 
> ...



We used to call the Fraser river the "Hells Angels retirement home" going by the number of biker bodies we found every spring. Most were never reported missing. Guy leaves home town under a cloud, perhaps mom dead, dad a drunk, gets involved in a gang in Edmonton, comes out to Vancouver, screws up and is taken for a swim one night. Very few people knew he was here and they are unlikely to talk. Just another associate gone. So in essence they just disappeared.


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## Xylric (4 Sep 2018)

Pulling on my Anthropology hat for a bit, I actually come down firmly on the side of saying that Toronto is *inherently* dangerous. Thing is, something doesn't have to be violent in order to be dangerous. I could, over time, lay out a generally convincing case that there are a number of factors significantly depressing the incident rates of violent crime within Toronto's city limits, a key example being the abundance of green and blue space, and thus access to nature. But it's easy for me to go into too much detail about that, so I'll focus on the rest of my point.

We have several million members of a hyper-predatory species with a heavy psychological (and physiologial) predisposition towards smaller packs crammed into exceedingly close proximity. That's likely going to cause a significant disruption and confusion to our native patterns of behavior, arousing a sense of agitation. It goes without saying that an agitated predator is *always* dangerous. The problem comes from the fact that most of us are too "smart" to admit that we're still simply very much extraordinarily advanced predators, and we like to think that we can continually ignore our baser impulses and instincts. I think the tendencies of children below a certain age to pull on things like beards, hair, or tails of unfortunate companion mammals because they haven't grasped that the act causes pain neatly demonstrates the foolishness of such thinking. 

As I am the descendant of both the extreme rural and the suburban environment, I've seen such a divergence due to proximity or lack thereof firsthand. Up at the family farm, which originally consisted of an entire valley of around 2000 hectares near Sault Ste. Marie, the closest neighbor which wasn't a relative or close family friend was about twelve miles away. Where I am currently, it's instead next door. While I'm still commonly leaving my door unlocked while I'm going to get the mail or picking up a pizza at the plaza across the street, I still lock it at night or when going away for extended periods of time. I don't believe my great-uncle ever locked the farmhouse, even when travelling the eight hours to visit the rest of the family.

Looking at all the crime statistics of Toronto and comparing them on a per-capita basis with more remote settlements (for example, Kapuskasing, where my brother lived and worked for 18 months), I'm considering the possibility that the extreme artificiality of the deep urban environment Toronto represents is itself viewed as a threat in the deepest and oldest parts of the human brain. Urban and suburban residents are, at least to me, clearly more paranoid and distrustful than their more rural and remote counterparts, when speaking in broad strokes. Canadians appear to be among the least paranoid and most trusting people on the planet, so it's not like I have reliable subjects to study!  :rofl:

My conclusion is that Toronto's crime rate isn't simply increasing, it's also transitioning. Gang activity is rather fascinatingly similar to certain wildlife studies involving significantly disrupted ecosystems, so it seems to me that one factor in the increased visibility of criminal activity is not due to the fact that it is happening more often, but because of the explosive proliferation of cameras and recording technology.

One can argue that New York City is vastly more dangerous and violent, and yet I would still feel rather comfortable crossing Central Park at night - I'd simply study the migratory patterns of the local human wildlife before attempting to do so.


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## mariomike (4 Sep 2018)

Xylric said:
			
		

> I could, over time, lay out a generally convincing case that there are a number of factors significantly depressing the incident rates of violent crime within Toronto's city limits, a key example being the abundance of green and blue space, and thus access to nature.



You may be on to something. The natural boundaries of my neighbourhood are a lake on the south, a river on the west and a pond on the east. Lots and lots of big old trees. 
Although only planted in the 1950's, the Sakura trees from Japan are my favorite.

Bloor West Village ( a shopping and entertainment district ) to the north. "A small village in a big city."

I think I live in a nice neighbourhood. Couldn't even buy a drink here ( except at the Legion ) until 2000. The Legion shut down when the area voted to go wet.

As for the rest of Metro, after being retired for ten years, much of what I know about it now is what I see on CP24, and read on here.  

A 2017 ranking of 60 cities by The Economist ranked Toronto as the fourth safest major city in the world, and the safest major city in North America.
http://safecities.economist.com/safe-cities-index-2017


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## Xylric (5 Sep 2018)

mariomike said:
			
		

> You may be on to something. The natural boundaries of my neighbourhood are a lake on the south, a river on the west and a pond on the east. Lots and lots of big old trees.
> Although only planted in the 1950's, the Sakura trees from Japan are my favorite.
> 
> Bloor West Village ( a shopping and entertainment district ) to the north. "A small village in a big city."
> ...



If I'm not mistaken, the street car system passes that are at its south end - I love the view from Queen street.


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## mariomike (5 Sep 2018)

Xylric said:
			
		

> If I'm not mistaken, the street car system passes that are at its south end - I love the view from Queen street.



Yes. That would be the 501 car along the south. 506 is the "end of the line" car from the east. 

When I was a boy, we also rode streetcars along the north. But, they were replaced by the subway.


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