# Egypt:  News/updates



## GAP (12 Aug 2012)

Egypt's president seizes powers from military
Article Link

Egypt's Islamist president ordered the retirement of the defence minister and chief of staff on Sunday and made the boldest move so far to seize back powers that the military stripped from his office right before he took over.

Mohammed Morsi has been locked in a power struggle with the military since he took office on June 30. But after militants killed 16 Egyptian soldiers a week ago at a border post with Israel in Sinai, he has sought more aggressively to assert his authority over the top generals.

He fired the nation's intelligence chief a few days ago and made two highly publicized visits to Sinai in the company of top commanders. He also chaired several meetings with the military brass and made a point of calling himself the supreme commander of the armed forces in televised speeches.

It was not immediately clear whether Morsi's surprise decisions had the military's blessing. But the appointment of outgoing Defence Minister Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi and Chief of Staff Gen. Sami Annan as presidential advisers and awarding them some of the nation's highest honours suggested they may have agreed, perhaps grudgingly, in advance.

Egypt's official Middle East News Agency, quoting an unnamed military official in a brief report, said late Sunday that Morsi's moves were "deliberated and co-ordinated" in advance. It said there were no "negative reactions" from within the military.

A few hours after the decisions were announced, Morsi called on Egyptians to rally behind him in the face of the nation's many challenges.

"Today's decisions are not directed at certain persons or meant to embarrass certain institutions... I only had in mind the interest of this nation and its people," he said in a televised speech. "I want (the armed forces) to dedicate themselves to a mission that is holy to all of us and that is the defence of the nation."

After nightfall, thousands of jubilant Morsi supporters celebrated in Tahrir Square, birthplace of the uprising that ousted Hosni Mubarak 18 months ago. Another crowd of supporters formed outside the presidential palace in Cairo's suburb of Heliopolis.
Sweeping changes

Adding to the sweeping changes in the military leadership, Morsi also ordered the retirement of the commanders of the navy, air defence and air force, but named two of them to senior positions.

He appointed a senior judge, Mahmoud Mekki, as vice-president. Mekki is a pro-reform judge who publicly spoke against election fraud during Mubarak's 29-year rule.

If Morsi's decisions go unchallenged, it could mean the end of six decades of de facto military rule since army officers seized power in a coup in 1952. But removing Tantawi and Annan does not necessarily mean that the military, Egypt's most powerful institution, has been defeated or that it would give up decades of perks and prestige without a fight.

Egypt's first civilian president acted at a moment when the military was humiliated over a major security failure in Sinai, the deadliest internal attack on soldiers in modern history. Several days before the killings, Israel warned that an attack was imminent. The intelligence chief was sacked after it emerged in Egyptian media that he knew of the Israeli warning but did not act.
More on link

_- mod edit title to make it more general -_


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## tomahawk6 (13 Aug 2012)

Indications are that Marsi also ordered the Army to move armor to the Israeli border. I wonder what the Muslim Brotherhood have in mind ?


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## jollyjacktar (13 Aug 2012)

Reichstag fire, etc etc came to my mind as a way for him to cull the military and further cement his position.


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## Brad Sallows (13 Aug 2012)

Ah...springtime in the Middle East.


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## Colin Parkinson (14 Aug 2012)

Could be he is aligning himself with a faction within the army, divide and conquer.


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## tomahawk6 (14 Aug 2012)

Sadat must be spinning in his grave.


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## Edward Campbell (23 Nov 2012)

OK, thanks to Gary Clement in the _National Post_ I may have a bit better understanding of Egypt:






Source: _National Post_


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## cupper (23 Nov 2012)

This falls in line with the post I made in the Israel / Gaza thread yesterday.

http://forums.army.ca/forums/threads/108275/post-1190174.html#msg1190174


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## cupper (23 Nov 2012)

Protests have started over Morsi's power grab / consolidation.

*Morsi’s decree sparks rival rallies in Egypt*

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/morsis-decree-sparks-rival-rallies-in-egypt/2012/11/23/288a1436-3571-11e2-bfd5-e202b6d7b501_story.html

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/dueling-demonstrations-in-egypt/2012/11/23/75c98ca8-3586-11e2-bfd5-e202b6d7b501_gallery.html?hpid=z2



> CAIRO — A decree by Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi granting himself extensive new powers triggered dueling demonstrations Friday by supporters and opponents.
> 
> Hundreds of protesters gathered in Tahrir Square to denounce the move, chanting “Leave! Leave!” and comparing Morsi to ousted autocrat Hosni Mubarak, whose 30-year rule was ended by Egypt’s Arab Spring uprising last year. Several miles away, members of the Muslim Brotherhood movement, with which Morsi is affiliated, rallied in front of the presidential palace to show support for the country’s first democratically elected president.
> 
> ...



There is more at the links, along with a photo gallery of protests.


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## GAP (23 Nov 2012)

Hmmm.....the Egyptian populace is not as compliant as they thought huh?


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## brihard (24 Nov 2012)

GAP said:
			
		

> Hmmm.....the Egyptian populace is not as compliant as they thought huh?



They got a taste for sorting their stuff out a couple years back.

I like this, in a way- it's proving that the population has a definite taste for a more responsive government, and that they won't be sated with just a revolution that leads back into autocracy.  Whatever the end result should be, it will very much be informed by that the people collectively want.

Obviously there are many risks involved, but that's to be expected... It is, after all, their country.


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## tomahawk6 (24 Nov 2012)

The counter to Morsi is the Army. I would prefer a military run government than one run by the Muslim Brotherhood.


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## cupper (24 Nov 2012)

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> The counter to Morsi is the Army. I would prefer a military run government than one run by the Muslim Brotherhood.



And we may soon see that happen. I cannot see the Army rolling over like a submissive dog to Morsi and the Brotherhood. Once the unrest and civil protests reach a point where it would appear Morsi has lost control, the Army will step in as they did with Mubarak and take control. But this time it could be a little more bloody than it was last time.


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## tomahawk6 (8 Dec 2012)

Morsi has rescinded his decree that has sparked the demonstrations. But he still pushed for a referendum. Maybe the Egyptians have finally figured out that the Muslim Brotherhood isn't good for democracy.Once sharia law is introduced Egypt won't be much better than Iran.

http://www.cnn.com/2012/12/08/world/meast/egypt-protests/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

Cairo (CNN) -- Egyptian President Mohamed Morsy has canceled his decree giving him sweeping powers but plans to push forward with a planned referendum December 15 on a draft constitution, said adviser Mohamed Selim el-Awwa.


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## GAP (21 Jan 2013)

Egyptian court sentences Christian family to 15 years for converting from Islam
By Benjamin Weinthal January 16, 2013 FoxNews.com
Article Link

The 15-year prison sentence given to a woman and her seven children by an Egyptian court for converting to Christianity is a sign of things to come, according to alarmed human rights advocates who say the nation's Islamist government is bad news for Christians in the North African country.

A criminal court  in the central Egyptian city of Beni Suef  meted out the shocking sentence last week, according to the Arabic-language Egyptian paper Al-Masry Al-Youm. Nadia Mohamed Ali, who was raised a Christian, converted to Islam when she married Mohamed Abdel-Wahhab Mustafa, a Muslim, 23 years ago. He later died, and his widow planned to convert her family back to Christianity in order to obtain an inheritance from her family. She sought the help of others in the registration office to process new identity cards between 2004 and 2006. When the conversion came to light under the new regime, Nadia, her children and even the clerks who processed the identity cards were all sentenced to prison.

Samuel Tadros, a research fellow at Hudson Institute's Center for Religious Freedom, said conversions like Nadia's have been common in the past, but said Egypt's new Sharia-based constitution "is a real disaster in terms of religion freedom.”
More on link


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## kevincanada (22 Jan 2013)

GAP said:
			
		

> Egyptian court sentences Christian family to 15 years for converting from Islam
> By Benjamin Weinthal January 16, 2013 FoxNews.com
> Article Link



That is really sad.  No one should be jailed because of their beliefs.  I hope this is not a example what is to become of the new Egypt.  While on this subject does anyone have a copy of the new constitution?  All I can seem to find is news article referencing it but not the constitution itself.


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## Kat Stevens (22 Jan 2013)

kevincanada said:
			
		

> That is really sad.  No one should be jailed because of their beliefs.  I hope this is not a example what is to become of the new Egypt.  While on this subject does anyone have a copy of the new constitution?  All I can seem to find is news article referencing it but not the constitution itself.



It's a very short document.  
  "Do whatever we tell you Allah wants you to do, or we will tie you to a tree and throw stones at you till you die."


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## cupper (23 Jan 2013)

Kat Stevens said:
			
		

> It's a very short document.
> "Do whatever we tell you Allah wants you to do, or we will tie you to a tree and throw stones at you till you die."



You forgot the part about freedom to practice one's religion, as long as that religion follows the tenants if Islam.


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## cupper (23 Jan 2013)

kevincanada said:
			
		

> That is really sad.  No one should be jailed because of their beliefs.  I hope this is not a example what is to become of the new Egypt.  While on this subject does anyone have a copy of the new constitution?  All I can seem to find is news article referencing it but not the constitution itself.



Try this:

http://www.egyptindependent.com/news/egypt-s-draft-constitution-translated

CONSTITUTION PREAMBLE 

We, the people of Egypt,
In the name of the merciful God and with his aid,
declare this to be

Our Constitution, the document of the 25th of January revolution, which was started by our youth, embraced by our people, supported by our Armed Forces;

Having rejected, in Tahrir Square and all over the country all forms of injustice, oppression, tyranny, despotism, exclusion, plunder and monopoly;

Proclaimed our full rights to “bread, freedom, social justice, and human dignity,” paid for by the blood of our martyrs, the pain of our injured, the dreams of our children, the strife of our men and women;

Recovered the spirit of our great civilization and our luminous history, for on the banks of the timeless Nile we established the oldest state that has always known the meaning of citizenship and equality, gave humanity the first alphabet, opened the way to monotheism and the knowledge of the Creator, embraced God’s prophets and messages, and adorned the pages of history with parades of creativity;

And in continuation of our virtuous revolution which has unified all Egyptians on the path of building a modern democratic state, we declare our adherence to the following principles:

One —
The people are the source of all authorities. Authorities are instituted by and derive their legitimacy from the people, and are subject to the people’s will. The responsibilities and competencies of authorities are a duty to bear, not a privilege or a source of immunity.

Two —
A democratic system of government, establishing the grounds for peaceful transfer of power, supporting political pluralism, ensuring fair elections and the people’s contribution in the decision-making process.

Three —
The individual’s dignity is an extension of the nation’s dignity. Further, there is no dignity for a country in which women are not honored; women are the sisters of men and partners in all national gains and responsibilities.

Four —
Freedom is a right: freedom of thought, expression and creativity; freedom in housing, property and travel; its principles laid down by the Creator in the motion of the universe and human nature.

Five — 
Equality and equal opportunities are established for all citizens, men and women, without discrimination or nepotism or preferential treatment, in both rights and duties.

Six — 
The rule of law is the basis of the individual’s freedom, the legitimacy of authority, and the state’s respect of the law. No power shall override that of righteousness, and the judiciary shall be independent, bearer of the honorable mission of defending the Constitution, upholding justice, and preserving rights and freedoms.

Seven — 
Upholding national unity is an obligation, and the cornerstone of building a modern Egypt and the path to progress and development. To that end, the values of tolerance and moderation shall be spread, and the rights and freedoms of all citizens shall be protected without discrimination.

Eight — 
Defending the nation is a duty and an honor. Our Armed Forces form a professional and neutral national institution that does not interfere in political affairs. It is the protective shield of the country.

Nine — 
Security is a great blessing; it falls on the shoulders of a police force which works in the service of the people, for their protection and to enforce the measures of justice. For there can be no justice without protection, and no protection without security institutions that respect the rule of law and human dignity.

Ten — 
Unity is the hope of the Arab nation; it is history’s call, the future’s bid, and destiny’s demand. Such unity is to be reinforced through the integration and fraternity with countries of the Nile Valley and of the Muslim world, both a natural extension borne out of the distinctiveness of Egypt’s position on the global map.

Eleven — 
Egypt’s pioneering intellectual and cultural leadership is an embodiment of its soft power, and a model of the free generosity of original creators and thinkers, universities, science centers, linguistic and research centers, the press, the arts, literature and mass media, the national church, and Al-Azhar with its history as a mainstay of national identity, the Arabic language and Islamic Sharia, and as a beacon for moderate enlightened thought.

We, the people of Egypt,
Out of faith in God and His heavenly messages,
In recognition of the right of the country and the nation, 
With awareness of our responsibilities toward the nation and humanity, 
Pledge to stay committed to the principles laid out in this Constitution, which we accept and grant to ourselves, affirming our determination to uphold and defend it, and asserting that it shall be protected and respected by the State’s authorities and the general public.


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## Kat Stevens (23 Jan 2013)

cupper said:
			
		

> You forgot the part about freedom to practice one's religion, as long as that religion follows the tenants if Islam.



That's pretty much covered in para 1


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## cupper (23 Jan 2013)

Here is a comparison of the current Constitution an dthe 1971 Constitution suspended during the Army's takeover in the middle of the protests.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-20555478


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## kevincanada (23 Jan 2013)

cupper said:
			
		

> Here is a comparison of the current Constitution an dthe 1971 Constitution suspended during the Army's takeover in the middle of the protests.
> 
> http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-20555478



Thanks for the links Cupper.   I had a read through the constitution.  Looking for elements pertaining to democracy, Sharia and the case of this family being jailed for 15 years.  Don't mind if I am a little ignorant on some parts this is what I gathered from it.


- They have taken many aspects of the United States methods of operating a country, called it democracy (my notes: makes sense USA is a military financial supplier to Egypt)
- They have made the system into a Hierarchy;  Sharia law ---> democratic application of the law ---> operations of the state --> personal rights and beliefs.

Of course I am lacking way to many details on the case of the jailed women.  Perhaps someone who is more knowledgeable about Egypt and Sharia Law than I am.  Can explain it better.  Since we have these two key articles from the constitution.

_*
Article 219
The principles of Islamic Sharia include general evidence, foundational rules, rules of jurisprudence, and credible sources accepted in Sunni doctrines and by the larger community.

Article 2
Islam is the religion of the state and Arabic its official language. Principles of Islamic Sharia are the principal source of legislation.  *_

- I have to conclude that the women crime was considered as apostasy (leaving the faith) which is a crime under sharia and carries a variety of punishments under sharia ran states.
- What I find really interesting is that her application for conversion was under the old regime.  They had riots to get rid of the old regime in favour of a more democratic? Secular? State.  Now she is being punished for a crime she technically did not commit as it happened before the new regime came into existance.

Please don't mind errors, I'm trying to piece it together.  I find the subject very interesting.


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## cupper (23 Jan 2013)

Just because they have a constitution does not mean that they will follow or adhere to it's stated articles, rights and so forth.

What should be noted is that all rights and articles can be revoked by court order, in times of social unrest or in time of war. Specific articles contain a statement specific to that.

So in other words, pretty much any time the rulers feel like doing so, either for specific individuals and groups, or the population as a whole.


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## Edward Campbell (23 Jan 2013)

:goodpost:

The constitution of the late and unlamented USSR was a masterpiece, few in the world were better ... just one problem: it was the USSR.  :


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## Haletown (23 Jan 2013)

Well they have a nice new constitution.

Too bad the don't have the foreign currency reserves to buy the food and fuel the nation needs for its people and economy. 


Spengler sends . . .  http://pjmedia.com/spengler/2013/01/22/denial-still-is-a-river-in-egypt-cross-posted-from-asia-times-online/


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## kevincanada (27 Jan 2013)

The reason for my curiosity on the constitution and the women who is jailed for 15 years was to try and get a feel if they will actually honour old arrangements.  If not then why?  According to this foxnews article on it.
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2013/01/16/egyptian-court-sentences-entire-family-to-15-years-for-converting-to/

I'll clip a couple highlights.

"_.....He later died, and his widow planned to convert her family back to Christianity in order to obtain an inheritance from her family. She sought the help of others in the registration office to process new identity cards between 2004 and 2006. When the conversion came to light under the new regime, Nadia, her children and even the clerks who processed the identity cards were all sentenced to prison._" and

"_Tadros said the constitution limits the practice of Christianity because “religious freedom has to be understood within the boundaries of Sharia.”....._"

I take it the people involved; their actions was not a crime under the old regime.  But since now apparently sharia law is the new regime.  Sharia law to my understanding (I could be incorrect here) does not see old arrangements as valid, It only sees what is today as valid.  Therefore it supersedes the women's old identity and what wasn't a crime is now a crime.


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## cupper (27 Jan 2013)

And we've now come full circle from almost exactly 2 years ago:

*Egypt’s Morsi declares state of emergency, curfew after deadly clashes*

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/three-killed-hundreds-injured-in-second-day-of-clashes-between-police-protesters-in-egypt/2013/01/27/38dca0e4-68a5-11e2-95b3-272d604a10a3_story.html?hpid=z1



> CAIRO — Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi declared a state of emergency and nighttime curfew across three major cities Sunday after violence raged for a third straight day, leaving nearly 50 dead and hundreds injured nationwide.
> 
> The deployment Saturday of government troops to the coastal cities of Port Said and Suez, which have seen some of the worst violence, failed to quell a public backlash against a court verdict and raised doubts about whether Morsi’s embattled government could contain the situation.
> 
> ...


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## cupper (29 Jan 2013)

It appears that the Army may be making a statement to both Morsi and the populous.

*Egypt’s military chief says clashes threaten the state* 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/egypts-military-chief-says-clashes-threaten-the-state/2013/01/29/8a8ee7ae-6a1b-11e2-ada3-d86a4806d5ee_story.html?hpid=z4



> CAIRO, Egypt — Egypt’s military chief warned of a potential “collapse of the state” on Tuesday after a fourth night of violent street battles between protesters and Egyptian security forces in Cairo and in major cities along the country’s prized Suez Canal.
> 
> “The continuation of this struggle between the different political forces . . . could lead to the collapse of the state, and threatens the future of coming generations,” Army chief and Defense Minister Abdel Fatah al-Sissi told military academy cadets, according to remarks posted on the armed forces’ Facebook page Tuesday.
> 
> ...


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## a_majoor (2 Feb 2013)

More about how and why the people are protesting the regime:

http://www.volokh.com/2013/02/01/what-to-do-when-illiberal-anti-democratic-forces-take-power-through-the-democratic-process/



> *What to Do When Illiberal, Anti-Democratic Forces Take Power Through the Democratic Process*
> 
> Ilya Somin • February 1, 2013 11:05 am
> 
> ...



and Instapundit comments:



> Remember: Democracy is a means, not an end. It’s valuable as a means of protecting those unalienable rights that include life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.
> 
> But those rights are unalienable — incapable of being alienated, that is, bought, sold, or given away — which means that even if you live in a democracy, you haven’t surrendered them to the majority. A majority that wants to take away your unalienable rights isn’t a legitimate government. I’m gratified by how many Egyptians seem to grasp that; it’s more than I expected, though perhaps not as many as it needs to be. It’s clearly more than the Muslim Brotherhood expected, too.


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## GAP (2 Jul 2013)

Canada closes Cairo embassy
07/02/2013  Erin Criger and Reuters 
Article Link

Canada closed its embassy in Cairo, Egypt, on Tuesday due to security reasons, according to the Department of Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development.

The announcement was made over Twitter.

The closure comes as opponents of Egyptian president Mohamed Mursi continued an all night celebration in Tahrir Square on Tuesday, after the army gave the Islamist president a 48-hour deadline to compromise with protesters.

Mursi’s liberal opponents brought millions out onto the streets to demand that he step down and that early presidential elections be held.

On Monday night, Mursi rejected the ultimatum, saying he had not been consulted and would pursue his own plans for national reconciliation.

But while Mursi’s supporters are calling the army’s move a military coup, his opponents are celebrating, saying the army has rightly brought the president into check after he failed to properly govern the country and allowed the Muslim Brotherhood to dominate all of the institutions of state.

Protester Rida Abdul Malek said that army had responded to the public’s demands.

“No, the army did not carry out a coup. [Defence minister and army chief] al-Sisi gave him a 48 hour warning, in order for things to be done legally. This is the people’s will. They [the Muslim Brotherhood] have failed, they failed to govern,” he said.

Another protester, Ahmed Essawy, said the army had given people hope after more than two years of turmoil and despair.

“This [the army's statement] has reassured people even more, and people feel that the army is with them and that the revolution is still strong. It has lifted everyone up,” he said.

Members of the Muslim Brotherhood have used the word “coup” to describe the military manoeuvre, which carries the threat of the generals imposing their own roadmap for the nation.

President Mursi’s supporters, most from Islamist parties such as his Muslim Brotherhood, have rallied on his behalf, and on Tuesday morning, several hundred continued an ongoing sit-in at Cairo University.
More on link


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## jollyjacktar (2 Jul 2013)

Morsi was on the TV moaning at the cameras and pleading his case.  Tomorrow will be interesting to see who blinks first, if at all.


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## cupper (2 Jul 2013)

The news here had a clip in which he supposedly claims that he is prepared to die to defend the Presidency.

I wish him all the best in the afterlife.


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## old medic (3 Jul 2013)

Going to be interesting to watch.


The Associated Press
03 July 2013



> CAIRO, Egypt -- Egypt's military moved to tighten its control of key institutions Wednesday, sending troops backed with armoured vehicles to the heart of Cairo and slapping a travel ban on President Mohammed Morsi and top allies in preparation for an almost certain push to remove the Islamist president with the expiration of an afternoon deadline.
> 
> Just before the military's deadline expired, Morsi repeated a vow not to step down, and one of his top advisers decried that Egypt is experiencing a military coup.
> 
> ...



http://www.ctvnews.ca/world/egyptian-soldiers-in-full-combat-gear-deploying-around-cairo-1.1351212


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## old medic (3 Jul 2013)

Moving quickly ...
http://www.cnn.com/2013/07/03/world/meast/egypt-protests/index.html



> Cairo (CNN) -- Egypt's military deposed the country's first democratically elected president Wednesday night, installing the head of the country's highest court as an interim leader, the country's top general announced.
> 
> Gen. Abdul Fattah Al-Sisi said the military was fulfilling its "historic responsibility" to protect the country by ousting Mohamed Morsy, the Western-educated Islamist leader elected a year ago. Morsy failed to meet demands to share power with opponents who thronged the streets of Cairo, and those crowds erupted as the announcement was made.
> 
> Ahead of the statement, troops moved into key positions around the capital and surrounded a demonstration by Morsy's supporters in a Cairo suburb. Citing an unnamed presidential source, the state-run newspaper Al-Ahram reported that "the General Command of the Armed Forces told President Morsy around 7 p.m. (1 p.m. ET) that he is no longer a president for the republic."...............


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## Kilo_302 (3 Jul 2013)

This is definitely a dangerous situation. The Muslim Brotherhood has been in the political wilderness for 60 years, and now only one year into being in power, it has been ousted by the military. It won't be too difficult for them to spin as this as a US backed coup, given the fact that the Egyptian Army is rolling around in M1s.  If the Brotherhood arms itself  Egypt could make Syria look like a walk in the park. It would have been preferable for a civil society to form, and peaceful democratic resistance to build in order to take on Morsi next time around. Of course, Morsi was already making moves that would have made it difficult for real elections to be held down the road. The problem is all of these actors have their own agendas and define themselves in opposition to each other. Thus the Muslim Brotherhood became the main form of opposition against a largely secular US backed military dictatorship for 50 years. Whatever you think about an Islamic based political party, the Egyptian government was no champion of democracy, and committed numerous human rights abuses,all with US acquiescence. I would argue that much of the radicalization of the MB came from the fact that there was no democratic political option for them to oppose Mubarak. And now we have a situation where the forces of liberal democracy are forced into an alliance with the military who is most certainly undemocratic, all against a theocratic, undemocratic party who in this situation is actually defending the results of a democratic election and constitution. Very complex indeed.


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## Kilo_302 (3 Jul 2013)

I would add that given the fact that the US backed Mubarak for so long, and then Obama backed Morsi, Washington may just want to sit this one out. I actually feel bad for Obama, all those years of stable dictatorships are finally coming to an end as a result of the Arab Spring, and there's not much anyone can do about it but allow the people to decide what they want.


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## Edward Campbell (3 Jul 2013)

Kilo_302 said:
			
		

> I would add that given the fact that the US backed Mubarak for so long, and then Obama backed Morsi, Washington may just want to sit this one out. I actually feel bad for Obama, all those years of stable dictatorships are finally coming to an end as a result of the Arab Spring, and there's not much anyone can do about it but allow the people to decide what they want.




Two points:

     1. You're right, there's not much anyone can do about any of this; and

     2. "The people" are not some monolithic whole; "the people" don't know what they want; given a reasonably free and fair choice a plurality (not a majority) of "the people" (in Algeria and Egypt, at least) want some kind of
          fundamentalist Islamic regime. Other elements of "the people" want something else and since 30% of Egyptians are illiterate, a good proportion of "the people" probably just want food and shelter and peace and quiet.
          There's little change "the people" will get any of those things any time soon. And Egypt is the "best" state in the region, next to Jordan.


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## GAP (3 Jul 2013)

> It won't be too difficult for them to spin as this as a US backed coup, given the fact that the Egyptian Army is rolling around in M1s.  If the Brotherhood arms itself  Egypt could make Syria look like a walk in the park. It would have been preferable for a civil society to form, and peaceful democratic resistance to build in order to take on Morsi next time around. Of course, Morsi was already making moves that would have made it difficult for real elections to be held down the road. The problem is all of these actors have their own agendas and define themselves in opposition to each other. Thus the Muslim Brotherhood became the main form of opposition against a largely secular US backed military dictatorship for 50 years.



The Brotherhood had been grooming people for years as an aid to the people, et al.....there were some shenanigans preceding/during the initial election that made the Brotherhood win not go down well with the majority of the people. 

The antics of Morsi since elected has not endured him to the general populous, especially after Mubarak's reign...they simply were not going to replace one with another. Let this be a lesson to whomever follows....

something about "you can fool some of the people some of the time........"  :


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## Kilo_302 (3 Jul 2013)

Yes I didn't mean to imply that the "people" are homogenous in their political beliefs (or lack thereof). But it is obvious to me that there are diminishing returns for the West in trying to keep friendly governments in power no matter how despotic or undemocratic they are. It's fashionable to point out how far "behind" many "Islamic" nations are, but the reality is we had something to do with it. There were plenty of democratic movements in the region in the 50s, and instead of supporting them, we chose to support regimes more friendly to our interests. The Soviets did the same, but then again they never claimed to be champions of democracy as we did. These policies made sense in the context of the Cold War, but this current situation is undeniably one result.


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## Edward Campbell (3 Jul 2013)

Kilo_302 said:
			
		

> Yes I didn't mean to imply that the "people" are homogenous in their political beliefs (or lack thereof). But it is obvious to me that there are diminishing returns for the West in trying to keep friendly governments in power no matter how despotic or undemocratic they are. It's fashionable to point out how far "behind" many "Islamic" nations are, but the reality is we had something to do with it. There were plenty of democratic movements in the region in the 50s, and instead of supporting them, we chose to support regimes more friendly to our interests. The Soviets did the same, but then again they never claimed to be champions of democracy as we did. These policies made sense in the context of the Cold War, but this current situation is undeniably one result.




We are, I think, in violent agreement.

What's happened in Egypt is that, given a fairly free choice "the people," or a plurality of them, anyway, chose the Muslim Brotherhood. The _*moderate*_ army disapproves ... exit Morsi. It appears, to me, that the Egyptian army doesn't want to rule, directly. The question is: can they convince a plurality to elect someone who will govern as the army sees fit? More important can that person, following a fair enough election, hand over power, peacefully, to someone else who will have the army's approval?


----------



## Colin Parkinson (3 Jul 2013)

The MB has a organization structured around the mosques and Egyptians are known piety. This gave them the resilience to survive the  pressure exerted by the regime. The moderates became disjointed and disorganized, leaving the fundamentalist a clear shot at power, *cough* Iran 1979 *cough*. The one thing is that once in power these fundies are quick to show their disdain for everything that does not fit their very narrow view of the world. In a way it would have been better to wait another year, by which time everyone would have been sick of them and their incompetence.


----------



## jollyjacktar (3 Jul 2013)

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> What's happened in Egypt is that, given a fairly free choice "the people," or a plurality of them, anyway, chose the Muslim Brotherhood. The _*moderate*_ army disapproves ... exit Morsi. It appears, to me, that the Egyptian army doesn't want to rule, directly. The question is: can they convince a plurality to elect someone who will govern as the army sees fit? More important can that person, following a fair enough election, hand over power, peacefully, to someone else who will have the army's approval?



It's not just the Egyptian army that thinks Morsi's et al are a gigantic collection of tools.  Millions of their fellow citizens can't stand the Bro's either.  According to all my wife's friends in Egypt and backed up by her last visit to see for herself, they've done SFA for the country and it's been not a free fall but rocket propelled ride to further, deeper, poverty amongst other things for most.  Including your 30% peasant class.

I'm thrilled to see the Islamists getting their teeth kicked and butts handed to them.


----------



## CougarKing (3 Jul 2013)

The beginnings of another civil war with Morsi's and the Brotherhood's supporters on one side and the moderates, the Egyptian military, religious minorities and other political opposition groups on other side?

National Post link




> *Army deploys commandos across Egypt, Morsi supporters promise bitter fight after ‘coup’*
> 
> (...)
> *The army has insisted it is not carrying out a coup, but acting on the will of the people to clear the way for a new leadership.
> ...


----------



## sean m (3 Jul 2013)

Hello,

Can anyone *speculate* as to how Israel *may* be reacting to this change in Egyptian politics. Does anyone *think* that the Israelis *may* approve of this military takeover? Can anyone *speculate* as to the relationship between the Israeli and Egyptian security services?

Here is an article from the Huffington Post

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/07/02/egypt-unrest-israel_n_3536454.html?utm_hp_ref=egypt


----------



## Edward Campbell (3 Jul 2013)

sean m said:
			
		

> Hello,
> 
> Can anyone *speculate* as to how Israel *may* be reacting to this change in Egyptian politics. Does anyone *think* that the Israelis *may* approve of this military takeover? Can anyone *speculate* as to the relationship between the Israeli and Egyptian security services?
> 
> ...




Apparently the _Huffington Post_ can speculate and does so, too, saying that "Israel Watches Protests Warily." That's the stuff in big letters ~ I didn't bother ready the fine print.


----------



## cupper (3 Jul 2013)

sean m said:
			
		

> Hello,
> 
> Can anyone *speculate* as to how Israel *may* be reacting to this change in Egyptian politics. Does anyone *think* that the Israelis *may* approve of this military takeover? Can anyone *speculate* as to the relationship between the Israeli and Egyptian security services?
> 
> ...



Apparently the Muslim Brotherhood believes that Israel is responsible along with the US for the coup.


----------



## old medic (4 Jul 2013)

Now under house arrest:




> Cairo (CNN) -- Egypt's military toppled the country's first democratically elected president Wednesday night and reportedly put him under house arrest while rounding up some of his top supporters even as the deposed Mohamed Morsy insisted that he remains the country's legitimate leader.
> 
> Hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets across Egypt over the military's actions that were decried by Morsy's supporters as a "coup" and celebrated as a "correction" by his opponents. At least eight people were killed and more than 340 wounded in sporadic violence that at times pitted Morsy's supporters against the opposition and the military.......



http://www.cnn.com/2013/07/03/world/meast/egypt-protests/index.html


----------



## Edward Campbell (4 Jul 2013)

And US domestic politics can never, ever "miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity," and so the knives are out for U.S. ambassador to Egypt Anne Patterson, according to this article in _Foreign Policy_. Ms Patterson is a career foreign service officer but since she is part of the _administration_ she is regarded as fair game. 

What's the difference between the Girl Guides and _official Washington_?







The Girl Guides have adult leadership.


----------



## GAP (4 Jul 2013)

article is behind a pay wall ER


----------



## Journeyman (4 Jul 2013)

GAP said:
			
		

> article is behind a pay wall ER


And?  You don't have a _Foreign Policy_ subscription?  rly:


----------



## Edward Campbell (4 Jul 2013)

GAP said:
			
		

> article is behind a pay wall ER




Here it is, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from _Foreign Policy_ (and it's a short _blog_ post, rather than a proper essay):

http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/07/03/knives_come_out_for_us_ambassador_to_egypt_anne_patterson


> Knives Come Out for U.S. Ambassador to Egypt Anne Patterson
> 
> Posted By John Hudson
> 
> ...


----------



## Colin Parkinson (4 Jul 2013)

sean m said:
			
		

> Hello,
> 
> Can anyone *speculate* as to how Israel *may* be reacting to this change in Egyptian politics. Does anyone *think* that the Israelis *may* approve of this military takeover? Can anyone *speculate* as to the relationship between the Israeli and Egyptian security services?
> 
> ...



I have no doubt the Israelis maintain high level contacts with the Egyptian military and I also suspect they will never mention that or what they know.


----------



## tomahawk6 (4 Jul 2013)

Stratfor article:

Stratfor article:

Analysis 

A debate is underway in Egypt on whether the move to oust President Mohammed Morsi is tantamount to a military coup. Considering that the Egyptian army is forcibly removing a democratically elected president in the wake of nation-wide unrest, the military intervention is indeed a coup. However, it differs from other coups in that direct military rule will not be imposed.

There is considerable public support for Morsi's removal, so the provisional authority that will replace him likely will be a broad-based entity that includes representatives of the nation's main political stakeholders. Indeed, the interim government likely will differ greatly from the one run by the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, which governed the state after former President Hosni Mubarak was forced from office in 2011 and until Morsi came to power in June 2012.

Herein lies the problem of the Egyptian military, which has been the mainstay of the regime since the founding of the modern republic in 1952. For most of its history, especially since after the end of the 1967 war, Egypt's military has never directly governed the country; rather, it ruled from behind the scenes, except for the year when the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces ruled. Until the fall of Mubarak, this was achieved by means of single-party rule where the now-disbanded National Democratic Party administered at the behest of the military. The destruction of the National Democratic Party was a major dilemma for the military, which no longer had a civilian partner. This was further complicated by the onset of a multi-party era.

As the single largest, most coherent political force in the country, Morsi's Muslim Brotherhood was able to benefit from the electoral process. With the election of Morsi as president last year, it appeared as though the military had found a replacement of sorts for the National Democratic Party -- the ideological differences notwithstanding. What the military needed was a government that could manage the political economy of the country such that the state of unrest could remain limited.

Morsi's government failed to do that. His focus on consolidating power for his group is what triggered the current massive public backlash. As a result, the army is once again without a civilian partner. There are no alternatives to the Muslim Brotherhood because the opposition is a large protest movement without any coherent core. However, it is notable that the impetus for these protests was the liberal and secular opposition, who for the first time demonstrated an ability to establish a united front. It is unclear whether the opposition will coalesce and whether Tamarod's political wing, June 30 Front, represents a political alternative to the Brotherhood's established social networks in the country. Mohammed ElBaradei's appointment as the negotiator for much of the opposition could be a first step toward a political entity besides the Brotherhood that could wield civilian power.

The unrest generated by the opposition elements united under Tamarod, and to a lesser extent even among some Islamists, has forced the military to get rid of the Morsi presidency. After all, the president refused to resign, and the opposition would not accept his proposals for a compromise. But this is not the outcome the military preferred. It hoped Morsi could maintain control of the country while securing the military's economic and political interests.

But the massive public outcry and the Brotherhood's defiant stance left the military with no option but to follow through on its threat to remove the president. The outcome is not just the removal of a government; it is the collapse of a burgeoning democratic system. Furthermore, the forcible removal of the Morsi government will make it difficult to create a new civilian government because the political environment will be even more polarized. The move has no doubt angered the Muslim Brotherhood, which we expect to push back dramatically. But just as important, the military has set a precedent for giving in to mob violence.

Morsi's downfall shows that the army's decades-long strategy of ruling without governing is proving increasingly difficult to impose. It cannot impose military rule because doing so would only aggravate tensions. It also shows that the country needs a coalition government. Such a government would be extremely difficult to create. Even though Egypt is constrained by the different factions and pressures in the country, the military remains the ultimate source of power in the country.


----------



## OldSolduer (4 Jul 2013)

I am not sorry to see the presidency of Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood done.  The CBC seems to think, IMO, that Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood were just fine fellows doing what they could for their country. 

I have my doubts about the Brotherhood, and I suspect others have those doubts as well.


----------



## MilEME09 (4 Jul 2013)

Now I don't know all the details but from what I have read, seems like Morsi was more concerned with making Egypt a better place for the Muslim brotherhood then he was trying to stabilize the economy, or anything else for that matter. Frankly I saw it coming though, Egypt is pretty secular, so the attempt by the Muslim brotherhood to bring more religion into the nation would not sit well with the majority of the country. Hopefully things don't turn overly violent, though the brotherhood has threatened violence, I doubt they will on a large scale.


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## Kilo_302 (4 Jul 2013)

I believe that the MB could become more moderate, but as I stated in an earlier post, all of these different factions define themselves in opposition to one another. The regime before Morsi was Mubarak, and he had the backing of the same military (and the US) that just carried out the coup. Now, this time the military has allied itself with what appears to be a broad coalition of groups who do not wish to see another Mubarak in power. But how do we know that won't happen again? Much of Mubarak's former regime is waiting in the wings to take back power so it's hard to say at this early juncture that the coup will have a net positive effect. 

 It's easy for us to sit in Canada and say anything is better than the MB, but ask Egyptians who may have suffered abuses at the hands of the Mubarak regime. Arguably, his despotic approach pushed any possible political opposition into the MB's arms, and also radicalized the MB itself. Now put yourself in the MB's shoes. Decades of political persecution at the hands of a military dictatorship (supported by the US and Israel), and you finally get into power via a democratic election, only to have it taken away by the same forces (as you see it) that you were fighting for the last 60 years. I'm certainly not defending what Morsi did since taking power nor am I defending some of the more extreme religious views of the MB, but you have to wonder at the wisdom of this coup. There are going to be plenty of angry MB supporters who again have LEGITIMATE grievances with the new government. Could be a recipe for a real conflict. I think a lot of this is a product of constant meddling from the outside in Egypt's politics.


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## GAP (4 Jul 2013)

I guess most have forgotten the constitution the MB pushed through and the restrictions/closing down/policies etc. that would help set up conditions to develop an Islamic Fundamentalist state similar to Iran....


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## Kilo_302 (4 Jul 2013)

> I guess most have forgotten the constitution the MB pushed through and the restrictions/closing down/policies etc. that would help set up conditions to develop an Islamic Fundamentalist state similar to Iran....



Well I certainly haven't, and as stated above I am not defending the MB. If I were an Egyptian I would most likely be happy to see Morsi gone. But the fact remains that political engagement is crucial to avoiding a more serious conflict. I just heard on the news that dozens of senior members of the MB have just been arrested. This is not going to help the situation.


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## tomahawk6 (4 Jul 2013)

The thousands in Tahir Square certainly encouraged the Army to remove the islamists.It could just as well happen in Turkey.


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## jollyjacktar (4 Jul 2013)

Here's hoping.   :cheers:


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## OldSolduer (5 Jul 2013)

jollyjacktar said:
			
		

> Here's hoping.   :cheers:



And I agree.


----------



## Edward Campbell (5 Jul 2013)

The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), which is not exactly a gang of amateurs, offers an analysis of the regional impact in this article which is reproduced under the fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the _RUSI's website_:

http://www.rusi.org/analysis/commentary/ref:C51D6A9C7EA961/#.UdavJkHVB8F


> The Regional Winners and Losers in Egypt's Military Coup
> *Egypt's neighbours are now counting the costs and opportunities of Mohammed Morsi's ousting as President. Will Gulf monarchies now play a more active part in Egypt's internal politics?*
> 
> RUSI Analysis
> ...




The last question - about the House of Saud - worries me. I do not trust the Saudis and I believe America, _official America_ is deluding itself by courting the Saudis.


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## a_majoor (5 Jul 2013)

An article with some similar conclusions to the RUSI piece (if rather less restrained rhetoric). The key deduction here seems to be the Egyptian military was impelled into action by the possibility of major food shortages and famine, as well as the knowledge that the one nation that *could* provide aid or at least enough cash to cover the shortfall was not inclined to do so so long as the Muslim Brotherhood was in a position of power. This might also have a lot to do with the mass roundups of Muslim Brotherhood leadership (and even according to one NP artice that I skimmed, some of the Salafi's as well).

Promoting the conditions for further economic hardship and humger is probably not going to wiht the Brotherhoods any friends, and it will be interesting and instructive to see if their "counter demonstrations" against the remobal of Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood's leadership will have much traction.

The ultimate end will be a vast increase in the power and prestige of Saudi Arabia; the Sauds have a controlling hand in Egypt (the most populoous Arab nation) and apparently Turkey (the most economically advanced ISlamic nation in the region). What the house of Saud is going to do with its influence is anyone's guess :

http://pjmedia.com/spengler/2013/07/04/dismiss-the-egyptian-people-and-elect-a-new-one/?singlepage=true



> *Dismiss the Egyptian People and Elect a New OneJuly 4th, 2013 - 6:38 am*
> 
> Update: Why can’t we get 14 million people into the streets to proclaim that Obama is an idiot like the Egyptians did? Over at ZeroHedge, Jim Quinn posts pictures of the banners in the mass demonstrations. They are inspiring. One read: “Obama you jerk, Muslim Brotherhoods are killing the Egyptians, so how come they can guarantee you the security of Israel. Hey Obama, your deal with the Muslim Brotherhood is unsuccessful. Obama you idiot, Keep in mind that Egypt is not Muslim brotherhoods and if you don’t believe that go and see what’s happening in Tahrir Square now.” Another reads, “Obama, your bitch is our dictator.” A picture of Hillary Clinton read, “Hayzaboon [ogre] go home.” Many banners simply read, “Obama supports terrorism.” Others were too harsh to mention in a family site. Happy 4th of July!
> 
> ...


----------



## GAP (5 Jul 2013)

I think the bottom lines kinda point it all out....



> The best-case scenario would be for the grown-ups in the region to ignore the blandishments of the Obama administration as well as the advice of the Republican establishment, and to do what they have to do regardless.
> 
> Americans who want to conduct a great experiment in democracy will have to take their laboratory somewhere else.


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## Nemo888 (5 Jul 2013)

Having the military in the driver seat will not stop the revolution. The Egyptians I knew did not think it was a real election last time. It was a choice between Islamo-fascists and old fashioned military fascists. Basically choosing what flavour of boot you want on your neck.  The 33 million who took to the streets are not interested in either. For many chaos is preferable.


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## SeaKingTacco (5 Jul 2013)

Actually, I think the opposite is true- 33 million want the chaos to end, regardless who is in charge.


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## kevincanada (6 Jul 2013)

I remember reading the Charter Morsi had drawn up when he won the election.  My reaction to it was from one dictator to the next.  Some statistical data from pew if that's your thing.

http://www.pewglobal.org/2013/05/16/egyptians-increasingly-glum/

Quickly looking through statistical data only the numbers  show Morsi and the Muslim brother hood did have the support of the people.  Mean while the numbers also show In the terms of economic conditions the people felt Morsi was overwhelming a failure and expect conditions to get worse and not better for the country.  Also 2/3's as of May 2013 wish for Islamic rule, and 1/3 do not. (approximates)

The views in the report swing quite wildly in different directions on various subjects.  Maybe the report help shed some light on why Morsi was ousted.


----------



## a_majoor (8 Jul 2013)

Walter Russel Mead has some interesting analysis on the situation. Perhaps the two take aways are the idea that a dictatorial government can be taken down by passive resistance (much of the economic free fall was people essentially downing tools in the face of imposed Islamic rule), and the fact that Egypt is not now, nor will it in the short or medium run, "transitioning to democracy". There is no real cultural or institutional basis for this belief, rather what we are seeing in Egypt is a crisis in authority, since there is no singular institution or group that can impose its will on Egypt at this time. This would seem ti indicate a long transitional period with unstable coalitions (perhaps mostly supported by the Army) trying to run things:

http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2013/07/04/still-wrong-about-egypt-and-wrong-about-the-world/



> *Still Wrong About Egypt—and Wrong About the World*
> WALTER RUSSELL MEAD
> 
> Both the Armed Forces of Egypt and President Obama made important statements last night. The Egyptian statement justifying the overthrow of President Morsi is here, and President Obama’s statement of concern is here. Looking carefully at both statements, it appears that the non-coup coup or whatever we want to call it may not create too much tension in US-Egyptian relations. Looking forward, President Obama wants Egypt’s military to move swiftly toward the restoration of civilian rule. That is pretty much what the Egyptian brass also wants. There are no gaps here that good diplomats (and both the US and Egypt have plenty of those) cannot paper over.
> ...


----------



## CougarKing (8 Jul 2013)

??? I would have thought McCain would support the Egyptian military for ousting Morsi and the Islamists...



> Quote:
> *Republican Senator John McCain called for a suspension of United States military aid to Egypt following the army ouster of Islamist president Mohammed Morsi.*
> 
> “I’ve thought long and hard about this, but I believe that we have to suspend the aid to the Egyptian military, because the Egyptian military has overturned the vote of the people of Egypt,” McCain said Friday, according to the AFP news agency.
> ...


----------



## Edward Campbell (8 Jul 2013)

S.M.A. said:
			
		

> ??? I would have thought McCain would support the Egyptian military for ousting Morsi and the Islamists...




He's actually just advocating that America obey its own laws which require that aid is suspended after an elected government is overthrown in a military coup.

According to §7008 of the FY2012 Consolidated Appropriations Act (P.L. 112-74), aid administered by the State Department and USAID is banned to the government of any country where a military coup or decree has overthrown a democratically-elected government.


Edit: to add link and ref to PL 112-74


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## GAP (8 Jul 2013)

I am sure that was pointed out to the Egyptian military and was the cause of the rapid transition to civilian rule


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## CougarKing (8 Jul 2013)

Laws regarding foreign coups and precedents (e.g. the Chile coup against Salvador Allende) aside, as opposed to McCain, other US Republicans lauded the Egyptian military's actions:

Quote from the CBC:


> Republicans also voiced strong support for Egypt's military, whose close ties to Washington stretch back to the 1979 Israeli-Egypt peace accords.
> 
> "*The Egyptian military has long been a key partner of the United States and a stabilizing force in the region, and is perhaps the only trusted national institution in Egypt today,"  said U.S. Representative Eric Cantor, the No. 2 Republican in the House.
> 
> "Democracy is about more than elections," he said.*



Cantor has a point. While a leader may be popularly elected, the country itself may not be true, liberal democracy. Didn't the last Egyptian election result in Morsi being elected by an ignorant mob who listen more to the ravings of intolerant imams who want nothing more than to install shariah law at the expense of other moderate groups (e.g. Egyptian moderates and Coptic Christians)? Perhaps because of the barbaric culture of this region as pointed out by Mr. Campbell earlier, the countries there are not ready for true, Western-style, liberal democracy because they will just end up voting for the party that is the most Islamic? 

There is a political theory called "the Democratic Peace theory", which holds that democratic nations will never go to war (or at least hesitate to go to war) with each other because of similar values or interests. 

Frankly I think that theory is rubbish, since in a number of that region's nations, much of the electorate is ignorant and religion (or hatred of an enemy) is more of a factor in how people vote than the actual issues in their lives. (e.g. Hamas' political wing winning the majority of seats in Palestine's legislature while they blame Israel for all their poverty and other woes) 

In the case of Egypt, if the Muslim Brotherhood regained power somehow and eradicated all of the moderate opposition groups, what's to stop them from becoming like Iran and instigating a war against Israel?


----------



## cupper (8 Jul 2013)

This is why the Administration is not using the term "coup", and the Egyptian Military is saying "It's not a coup".

And really, it isn't a coup. 

They only removed a democratically elected albeit highly unpopular government which overstepped it's perceived boundaries and replaced it with temporary caretaker government until a more favorable government can be installed.

But it's not a coup. :nod:


----------



## a_majoor (9 Jul 2013)

More fighting in Egypt. One odd effect may be to slow the flow of Egyptian radicals from Egypt to fight against Assad in Syria in order to concentrate of fighting the secularists and "liberals" in Egypt to impose an Islamist state. Look for an escalation in violence as the situation deteriorates:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/violent-clashes-in-egypt-leave-at-least-40-dead-and-chill-negotiations/2013/07/08/ca788168-e7a2-11e2-a301-ea5a8116d211_print.html



> *Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood calls for ‘uprising’ after troops shoot protesters*
> By William Booth, Michael Birnbaum and Abigail Hauslohner, Published: July 8
> 
> CAIRO — Egypt lurched into dangerous new terrain Monday as an angry and bloodied Muslim Brotherhood called for an “uprising” against the new order, and the head of Egypt’s top Islamic authority warned that the country was headed toward “civil war,” after security forces opened fire on supporters of ousted President Mohamed Morsi in the early morning hours.
> ...


----------



## CougarKing (11 Jul 2013)

> *US still planning to send F16 jets to Egypt*
> 
> The announcement came as the military pledged to crack down jihadist activity in Sinai near the border with Israel.
> 
> ...


----------



## CougarKing (11 Jul 2013)

link



> *U.S. Navy ships in Red Sea move close to Egypt as precaution*
> 
> WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Two U.S. Navy ships patrolling in the Middle East moved closer to Egypt's Red Sea coast in recent days, the top Marine Corps general said on Thursday, in what appeared to be a precautionary move after the military overthrow of President Mohamed Mursi.
> 
> ...


----------



## CougarKing (24 Jul 2013)

Now the delivery of the 4 F16s to Egypt has been halted for now.



> *Obama halts delivery of four F-16 jets to Egypt amid unrest*
> 
> WASHINGTON - *President Barack Obama has delayed the delivery of four U.S. F-16 fighter jets to Egypt because of the country’s political unrest, officials said Wednesday - reversing earlier assurances from the Pentagon.*
> 
> ...


----------



## cupper (24 Jul 2013)

Was listening to a news report while driving back from a business trip.

Apparently the head of the Egyptian Army called for nation wide rallies indicating popular support for the Army to protect Democracy and the People from an Islamist agenda.

Meanwhile a senior member of the Muslim Brotherhood called for counter rallies filling every square in the country at the same time, and that if ay blood is shed, it will be on the Army.

What could go wrong?

op:


----------



## a_majoor (25 Jul 2013)

What indeed?

It is interesting that both sides are calling for filling the public spaces at this time. I suspect that there are two reasons for this:

a. A means of measuring their respective support, and 
b. because the public institutions are breaking down

Since it is estimated that crowds of up to 20 million had filled the streets of Egypt to drive the Muslim Brotherhoods from power, the Army probably has a large support base, but the Brotherhoods and other extreme Islamist sects are better organized and much more willing to "do what it takes" to battle for power. The Muslim Brotherhoods have somewhat of an advantage in factor "b" as well, they have created a system of parallel governments over a period of decades which can actually run towns, villages and neigbourhoods. When people become tired or fearfull of the chaos engulfing Egypt, they may well turn (or turn back to) anyone who can offer a sense of security and relief; "The Man on the White Horse". 

This is what allowed the Taliban to overrun Afghanistan in the first place; they offered to fight and overthrow the warring Mujahideen factions and bring order to Afghanistan. The Afghans enthusiastically embraced the Taliban, at first.....


----------



## cupper (25 Jul 2013)

Thucydides said:
			
		

> What indeed?
> 
> It is interesting that both sides are calling for filling the public spaces at this time. I suspect that there are two reasons for this:
> 
> ...



One pundit / expert posited that the Army call is a move to show that there is popular support for a crackdown on Islamists, thus giving them a mandate to move against the Brotherhood and like minded organizations.

Where have we seen this before? Where ...


----------



## CougarKing (27 Jul 2013)

> *Egyptian forces kill dozens of supporters of ousted Islamist*
> 
> By Tom Perry and Noah Browning
> 27 July 2013
> ...


----------



## sean m (31 Jul 2013)

Here is an interesting article from _Foreign Affairs _ Magazine. The article discusses General Sisi's Islamic beliefs and how he may desire to have a greater Islamic society in Egypt. The article mentions how he is seemingly trying to convince M.B. supporters to back away from the M.B ( Muslim Brotherhood) leadership. The article peculates that he desires a militaristic Islamic state. Seems like the people of Egypt are screwed either way.



http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/139605/robert-springborg/sisis-islamist-agenda-for-egypt


----------



## a_majoor (2 Aug 2013)

And a reminder that there are actually many different factions all looking for power or advantage in Egypt as the old structures crumble. While this movement is tiny, how many other groups are out there quietly working to advance their cause?:

http://news.nationalpost.com/2013/08/01/keeping-an-ember-alive-aims-of-egypts-revolution-not-represented-by-army-or-muslim-brotherhood-third-square-movement-says/



> *Aims of Egypt’s revolution not represented by army or Muslim Brotherhood, ‘Third Square’ movement says*
> 
> Sherif Elhelwa, The Media Line | 13/08/01 2:29 PM ET
> 
> ...


----------



## a_majoor (10 Aug 2013)

Egyptians react strongly to what they see as American outreach to the Muslim Brotherhood. Inept messaging like this can only make matters worse in Egypt and the Middle East as a whole, as well as increase the difficulty of American economic, political, military and diplomatic interests in the region:

http://pjmedia.com/blog/msm-blackout-egyptians-enraged-by-u-s-outreach-to-muslim-brotherhood/?print=1



> *MSM Blackout? Egyptians Enraged by U.S. Outreach to Muslim Brotherhood*
> Posted By Raymond Ibrahim On August 9, 2013 @ 8:24 am In Egypt,Middle East,US News,World News | 59 Comments
> 
> In the eyes of tens of millions of Egyptians, Senators John McCain’s and Lindsey Graham’s recent words and deeds in Egypt — which have the “blessing [1]” of President Obama — have unequivocally proven that U.S. leadership is aligning with the Muslim Brotherhood.
> ...


----------



## OldSolduer (14 Aug 2013)

Egypt will have to sort itself out. We - North America - best stay away from this mess.


----------



## cupper (14 Aug 2013)

Jim Seggie said:
			
		

> Egypt will have to sort itself out. We - North America - best stay away from this mess.



Mess indeed. Got back to my hotel this afternoon only to find out that the Egyptian Forces have moved on the protest camps, and now clashes are happening all over the country. It was only a matter of time before it started, and now it has gone full force.

Al Baradai has resigned in protest to the moves by the Army, saying that he pushed for other measures to get the protesters under control, to no avail.

Maybe I should look at opening a marshmallow stand franchise over there, because it seems things will be burning for a while. 'Smores anyone?


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## a_majoor (16 Aug 2013)

A better way of understanding this is this is how the Egyptians are solving an Egyptian problem. US "diplomacy" is now seen as essentially irrelevant, and Barrack Obama or John Kerry shooting their mouths off simply infuriates both (or more) sides of the conflict without providing any positive benefits to either the faction or the US:

http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2013/08/15/al-sisis-hammer-obamas-nine-iron/



> *Al-Sisi’s Hammer, Obama’s Nine-Iron?*
> 
> Adam Garfinkle
> 
> ...


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## OldSolduer (16 Aug 2013)

cupper said:
			
		

> Mess indeed.
> 
> Maybe I should look at opening a marshmallow stand franchise over there, because it seems things will be burning for a while. 'Smores anyone?



How about a Tim's on the Island of Love?


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## Jed (16 Aug 2013)

Thucydides said:
			
		

> A better way of understanding this is this is how the Egyptians are solving an Egyptian problem. US "diplomacy" is now seen as essentially irrelevant, and Barrack Obama or John Kerry shooting their mouths off simply infuriates both (or more) sides of the conflict without providing any positive benefits to either the faction or the US:
> 
> http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2013/08/15/al-sisis-hammer-obamas-nine-iron/



It also infuriates the folks back in the USA who are paying attention to the news. (but not the sheeple)


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## tomahawk6 (19 Aug 2013)

The Egyptian security forces are at war with the islamists in the Sinai.Recently 24 off duty police were murdered between Rafah to El Arish.A crackdown in the Sinai is in the interest of the Egyptian military and Israel.


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## GAP (20 Aug 2013)

The US and Europe are quickly becoming irrelevant by trying to force "their" change in the ME. 

Gulf nations split with West to back Egyptian military
Article Link
By Jamie Dettmer August 20, 2013 FoxNews.com

 Efforts by the West to pressure Egypt’s new government to end its crackdown on the Muslim Brotherhood could be moot thanks to Saudi Arabia’s oil money – and whole-hearted backing of the military.

While the West calls for peace in Cairo, the Saudis are supporting Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, who led the ouster of Mohamed Morsi. The Kingdom has pledged to make up for any loss in foreign aid resulting from the military’s brutal crackdown on the Muslim Brotherhood.

On Monday, the country’s foreign minister Prince Saud Al-Faisal issued a hard-hitting statement via the Saudi Press Agency pushing back on the West.

“To those who have announced they are cutting their aid to Egypt, or threatening to do that, (we say that) Arab and Muslim nations are rich and will not hesitate to help Egypt,” said Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud Al-Faisal, in a statement to the Saudi Press Agency. “Arab states will never accept manipulation of their fates or tampering with their security and stability by the international community.”

The European Union is considering whether to halt $6 billion in aid to Egypt’s new government, and in Washington, pressure continued to mount on the Obama administration to consider further steps. Several lawmakers said Obama’s decision last week to cancel planned joint military exercises with Egypt and to delay delivery of four F-16 fighter jets doesn’t go far enough.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Sunday suggested halting previously approved arms shipments to Egypt as part of a coordinated European response. Her development minister today told German radio that Berlin will make “no further pledges this year” of aid to Egypt, and that Germany “won’t negotiate this year” any debt relief for the country.

Some analysts believe the Arab Spring and its aftermath is increasingly exposing an acrimonious division between the Gulf countries and the West over the future of the Middle East, one that is likely to worsen and threaten the ties linking the West and the royal families of the region.

The split between the Saudis and the West over Egypt is not only underscoring policy differences over the Muslim Brotherhood, they say, but is highlighting a growing divergence of interests between Washington and the European capitals and Riyadh when it comes to political reform in the region.
More on link


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## tomahawk6 (20 Aug 2013)

Egyptian security forces have arrested the leader of the MB,after the killing of 24 police officers in the Sinai.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/25-egyptian-police-recruits-gunned-down-by-militants-in-sinai-mubarak-could-be-released/2013/08/19/dc77447e-08bf-11e3-8974-f97ab3b3c677_story.html


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## The Bread Guy (20 Aug 2013)

A few updates:

1)  Oopsie - a Canadian doc and a Canadian filmmaker/academic were nabbed in Egypt on their way to Gaza.  What Canada's saying (1):  


> The Honourable Lynne Yelich, Minister of State (Foreign Affairs and Consular), today issued the following statement:
> 
> “The Government of Canada is very concerned that two Canadian citizens have been arrested in Egypt.
> 
> ...


Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development Canada Info-machine, 18 Aug 13

2)  More of What Canada's Saying ....

*"Canada Deeply Concerned by Deadly Violence in Egypt"*
_*"Canada Concerned by Ongoing Violence Against Christians in Egypt"*_

3)  What the Liberal Party Info-machine's saying:


> Liberal Foreign Affairs critic Dominic LeBlanc made the following statement today on the eruption of violence in Egypt:
> 
> “We are deeply concerned by the violence currently affecting areas of Cairo, including the recent attacks on religious institutions. Attacks of this nature are unacceptable and we call on the Egyptian authorities to protect the rights and security of all its citizens.
> 
> During this time of crisis, we urge all sides to remain calm and to seek meaningful ways to bring an end to the violence. It is urgent that a clear roadmap for the return to democracy be set out and fairly implemented. Dialogue, not confrontation and hostility, is the path to peace and prosperity in Egypt ....


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## sean m (21 Aug 2013)

http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-23776013

This article seems to indicatevthat there is a chance Mubarak could leave prison. Perhaps it is safe to assume that the masses on the street would have even more cause to revolt.

It would be interesting to find out what the Egyptian military's strategic objectives are for the future, especially woth the violence that is occuring? Does anyone here believe that the Egyptian military expects things to go back to normal.


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## tamouh (4 Sep 2013)

sean m said:
			
		

> http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-23776013
> 
> This article seems to indicatevthat there is a chance Mubarak could leave prison. Perhaps it is safe to assume that the masses on the street would have even more cause to revolt.
> 
> It would be interesting to find out what the Egyptian military's strategic objectives are for the future, especially woth the violence that is occuring? Does anyone here believe that the Egyptian military expects things to go back to normal.



I am not sure anyone knows what the Egyptian army is doing. I have to believe the Egyptian military branch itself doesn't know what it is trying to do! However, I know for a fact that the Saudis are in full support of Gen. Sissi regardless of what the US and other nations say. I also know that the Egyptian army had been planning for this instant since the ouster of Mubarak over two years ago.

Some speculate that the chaos in Sinai peninsula may cause the West, Israel to intervene in the name of protecting the Suez Canal. 

What I find ironic is the Saudi support for Egypt's military today considering the Egyptians have fought the Saudis during the Yemeni Civil War in late 1960s.


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## Inquisitor (4 Sep 2013)

Stand by - we have a breaking report from our "We can't make this S*it" up editor

Egypt Aid Suspension Recommended By Obama's National Security Aides  

portion reproduced under the fair use provision of the copyright act from Huffington post

"Assistance that is used to pay American companies that sell Egypt military equipment would be suspended if Obama accepts the recommendation but those firms would be compensated with so-called "wind up" payments that could amount to hundreds of millions of dollars, according to the officials.
The White House and State Department declined to comment on the recommendation, but congressional aides said national security adviser Susan Rice has outlined the possible strategy in closed-door consultations with lawmakers.

Any decision on suspending assistance to Egypt would follow months of internal deliberation over how to respond to Morsi's ouster  during which the administration has struggled to enunciate a coherent policy.
[size=14pt]The administration determined that it was not in the U.S. national interest to determine whether a coup had taken place, as such a designation would have required it to suspend all but humanitarian assistance to Egypt."  [/size] 

Comment: This is the sort of report that seems a natural for Jon Stewart or Stephen Colbert

Note to self


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## Inquisitor (4 Sep 2013)

sorry the previous looks so bad. 

I'm pretty cynical and it shocked me, hit post to soon. 

So much for "Miltary coup" - cut off aid. 

The points about months to make decisions does not bode well.


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## a_majoor (7 Sep 2013)

Report on the CTV News network "ticker" running under the main program of Egyptian tanks and helicopter gunships being used in the Northern Sinai against MB strongholds. We now have a secular war against Islamic extremeists running in Egypt, while the Sunni/Shia civil wars grow in strength in Syria (and threaten to spill out to surrounding countries).

The Saudis are in an interesting position. On the one hand they back the secular authorities in Egypt against the Muslim Brotherhoods, yet at the same time they are supplying financial support (along with many of the Gulf States) to similar radical groups in their fight against Syria, Hezbollah and Iran. There is a danger in trying to play too many sides against each other.


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## cupper (9 Sep 2013)

Michele Bachmann and her bat crap crazy congressional partners Louis Gohmert and Steve King seemed not to get the talking points memo on the current political situation in Egypt.

I almost posted this under dumbest thing thread.  :facepalm:

*Here’s Michele Bachmann thanking the Egyptian military for the coup and crackdowns*

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2013/09/07/heres-michele-bachmann-thanking-the-egyptian-military-for-the-coup-and-crackdowns/



> Three U.S. lawmakers who have generated controversy for their statements about Islam and Muslim Americans released a video Saturday praising the Egyptian military and thanking it for staging the July 3 and subsequent crackdowns against their “common enemy,” the Muslim Brotherhood. The video, apparently taken a few hours after meeting with coup leader General Abdel Fatah el-Sissi in Cairo, features Rep. Michele Bachmann reading a statement to the camera. She’s flanked by Reps. Steve King and Louie Gohmert.
> 
> The video, posted below, is a doozy. Bachmann, presumably supported by King and Gohmert, offers fulsome praise for the coup and the military-led government’s subsequent actions, describing its crackdowns against sit-ins and demonstrations as “the front lines” in “the war on terrorism.” She described the Muslim Brotherhood as a common enemy and a “great evil,” implying that it had been responsible for the attacks against the U.S. on Sept. 11, 2001. King and Gohmert offered similar but more tempered remarks.
> 
> ...



http://youtu.be/T0iTiCHjiNs

Apparently she is positioning herself for a run at the Egyptian Presidency. >


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## a_majoor (9 Sep 2013)

Frankly, the current situation in Egypt, while not ideal, is the "least worst choice".

Certainly having radicals like the Muslim Brotherhoods in power would not have been in the best interests of anyone in the region, and by extension, the rest of the Global community. You can read for yourself upthread how Saudi Arabia and the various Gulf States felt about the Muslim Brotherhood being in power, for example. How long this situation will obtain is anyones guess, and given the general paralysis of the current US Administration, it will be up to the Egyptian Army (as the only other fully organized and functional player) to attempt to keep Egypt afloat while dealing with a violent internal insurrection.


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## tamouh (9 Sep 2013)

Thucydides said:
			
		

> Report on the CTV News network "ticker" running under the main program of Egyptian tanks and helicopter gunships being used in the Northern Sinai against MB strongholds. We now have a secular war against Islamic extremeists running in Egypt, while the Sunni/Shia civil wars grow in strength in Syria (and threaten to spill out to surrounding countries).
> 
> The Saudis are in an interesting position. On the one hand they back the secular authorities in Egypt against the Muslim Brotherhoods, yet at the same time they are supplying financial support (along with many of the Gulf States) to similar radical groups in their fight against Syria, Hezbollah and Iran. There is a danger in trying to play too many sides against each other.



I wouldn't jump on this wagon yet. Until now, no one knows exactly what is happening in Sinai. In fact, I've never heard of MB, tribes wars or anything else there until about 6 months ago. Some speculate this is tribal wars, others say it is because of Palestinian tunnels. Some say it is about drug lords, others its about weapons shipped from Libya to Syria through Sinai.

What I know, that certain areas in Sinai are very difficult terrains and tribal relations are common. Thus, any army picking a war with that regime is likely to face a very stiff opposition and huge personnel losses.

I'd like to wait and see what is going to come out of Sinai. I doubt the MB or extremists have anything to do with it, but perhaps it may develop into that stage.

This is perhaps the only article I found that tried to make sense of the situation in Sinai:

http://www.politicalanalysis.co.za/2013/09/09/egyptian-military-activity-in-the-sinai-targeting-bedouin-militants-hamas-and-muslim-brotherhood/



> The Bedouin of Sinai have long complained of neglect and discrimination by the state, and as a result many have turned to smuggling into Gaza and Israel to stimulate economic activity in the region. The illegal activity has been exacerbated by Israel’s blockade on Gaza after Hamas’s 2006 electoral victory. Under the blockade, which was also enforced by Egypt aboveground, Gaza has depended on smuggled Egyptian commodities, particularly fuel and building supplies, to keep the Strip’s infrastructure running. It is unambiguous that Hamas has relied heavily on the revenues generated from these tunnels to keep its administration afloat. .....................................


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## CougarKing (26 Apr 2014)

Apaches for the Egyptian Army's campaign against Muslim brotherhood fighters in the Sinai?

Defense News




> *US Eases Restrictions on Egypt Military Aid*
> Apr. 23, 2014 - 03:45AM   |   By AWAD MUSTAFA and ZACHARY FRYER-BIGGS
> 
> DUBAI and WASHINGTON – The *US government is moving forward with $650 million in Foreign Military Financing (FMF) for Egypt’s military*, part of an easing of restrictions that were put in place following the coup that removed former President Mohamed Morsi from power in 2013.
> ...


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## CougarKing (3 Jun 2014)

Egypt's former army chief is now the president-elect:

Agence-France-Presse via the Economic Times of India



> *Sisi declared Egypt president-elect with 96.9% of vote*
> By: Agence France-Presse
> June 4, 2014 3:15 AM
> 
> ...


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## Infanteer (3 Jun 2014)

Just goes to show that democracy doesn't work properly without a liberal foundation.  Oh well, "strongman" worked for Nasser and Mubarak - we may as well get used to Sissi so that tourists can head back to Giza....


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## Edward Campbell (3 Jun 2014)

Infanteer said:
			
		

> Just goes to show that democracy doesn't work properly without a liberal foundation.  Oh well, "strongman" worked for Nasser and Mubarak - we may as well get used to Sissi so that tourists can head back to Giza....




I'm going to disagree very slightly: "democracy doesn't work without a liberal foundation of respect for the rule of law and the fundamental rights of all." There are a couple of successful democracies that still have very to fairly _conservative_ foundations: Singapore, Taiwan and Japan to name three. They are, I suggest, at least as democratic as the several _illiberal_ democracies - those with the trappings of free and fair elections but without much respect for fundamental rights when they become inconvenient.


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## CougarKing (7 Jun 2014)

But yet the Saudis haven't disowned certain rebel factions in Syria...

Reuters



> *Saudi shouts support for Egypt's new anti-Islamist leader*
> Reuters
> 
> By Yara Bayoumy
> ...


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## tomahawk6 (5 Jan 2015)

Talk about painting a bullseye on your back.I give President al Sisi a BZ for stating a truth.

http://www.raymondibrahim.com/from-the-arab-world/egypts-sisi-islamic-thinking-is-antagonizing-the-entire-world/



> I am referring here to the religious clerics. We have to think hard about what we are facing—and I have, in fact, addressed this topic a couple of times before. It’s inconceivable that the thinking that we hold most sacred should cause the entire umma [Islamic world] to be a source of anxiety, danger, killing and destruction for the rest of the world. Impossible!
> 
> That thinking—I am not saying “religion” but “thinking”—that corpus of texts and ideas that we have sacralized over the years, to the point that departing from them has become almost impossible, is antagonizing the entire world. It’s antagonizing the entire world!
> 
> ...


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## Colin Parkinson (5 Jan 2015)

Well they intend to kill him anyways, might as well speak truth to the lust for power.


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## CougarKing (18 Jan 2015)

France is becoming an alternative source of weapons for Egypt after the "Arab Spring" unrest that made the Americans drag their feet on delivering more F16s to Egypt...

Defenseworld.net



> *Egypt Close To Buying 22 Rafale Fighters, 2 FREMM Frigates Worth Euro 6 Billion*
> 
> Egypt and France are close to signing a 5 to 6 billion Euro contract for the sale of twenty Rafale and two FREMM multi-mission frigates.
> 
> ...


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## CougarKing (13 Feb 2015)

An update on the above: the deal has been finalized.

Defense News



> *Egypt Agrees to Buy French Rafales*
> 
> Paris — Egypt has told French President François Hollande of the* decision to buy 24 Rafale fighter jets and a multimission frigate*, with a contract signing to be held in Cairo on Monday, the Elysée president's office said in a statement Thursday.
> 
> ...


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## CougarKing (2 Apr 2015)

Seems the embargoed F-16s will be delivered to Egypt after all...

New York Times



> Tuesday, March 31, 2015 3:40 PM EDT
> 
> *Obama Lifts Arms Freeze Against Egypt*
> 
> ...


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## CougarKing (13 Mar 2016)

More military aid from France on the way to Egypt, aside from the recent Rafale and Mistral LHD deals.

Defense News



> *Egypt OKs Plan for €3B Military Gear Loan From France*
> Oscar Nkala, Defense News 10:05 p.m. EDT March 13, 2016
> 
> GABORONE, Botswana — The Egyptian parliament has approved government plans to secure a €3.37 billion (US $3.76 billion) loan to fund the acquisition of weapons and military equipment, including Navy vessels and fighter jets, as part of the country's ongoing force modernization program, a new parliamentary report has said..
> ...


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## Fishbone Jones (14 Mar 2016)

S.M.A. said:
			
		

> More military aid from France on the way to Egypt, aside from the recent Rafale and Mistral LHD deals.
> 
> Defense News



Sounds like they want to borrow enough that they can buy one or two F-35s ;D


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