# US, NATO Outta Afghanistan 2021



## daftandbarmy

This will be interesting to watch over the next year or so. Trump planned to leave too, by May this year, so it's not a party political thing....

Joe Biden gives up on the war in Afghanistan, leaving a weak ally​American troops are set to leave by September 11th, 20 years after they arrived. Will the Taliban return to power?


THE FIRST American forces to enter Afghanistan in 2001 arrived on September 26th when a CIA team dropped into the Panjshir Valley in the north of the country. At the peak of the war a decade later, America had more than 100,000 troops battling the Taliban. Another decade on, all of them will be gone and the longest war in American history will be over—for the Americans, at least. President Joe Biden has decided to withdraw all American forces from Afghanistan by September 11th 2021, the 20th anniversary of the terrorist attacks which prompted America to invade in the first place. An official said on April 13th that the president would announce the move the following day.

Mr Biden had inherited a peace deal from his predecessor, Donald Trump. In February 2020 Mr Trump’s administration had signed an agreement with the Taliban in which America committed to reducing forces and ultimately withdrawing from the country entirely by May 1st of this year in exchange for Taliban commitments to break with al-Qaeda and discuss a political settlement with the Afghan government in Kabul.

There is little sign that the Taliban have delivered on either count. A report by America’s Treasury department in January noted that al-Qaeda members remained “embedded with the Taliban”, and on April 12th the group said it would not attend a forthcoming American-backed meeting in Turkey that would have discussed, among other things, the formation of an interim Afghan government that included the Taliban. Ashraf Ghani, Afghanistan’s president, released 5,000 Taliban prisoners last year, notes Lisa Curtis, who oversaw American policy on Afghanistan in the Trump administration, and is now an expert at the Centre for a New American Security, a think-tank. “He got practically nothing in return, except an increase in Taliban violence and a demand for more Taliban prisoners to be released.”

Despite all this, Mr Biden had already said that he “could not picture” American troops remaining in Afghanistan beyond the end of this year. His military advisers had warned him that the Taliban, who have made important battlefield gains in recent months, would probably take over the country if America were to leave. General Mark Milley, the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, reportedly told the president that women’s rights would go “back to the stone age”.
Others retorted that Afghanistan was no longer a vital interest, with al-Qaeda weakened, the terrorist threat greater in the Middle East, and other challenges—above all, the one from China in the Pacific—more deserving of American attention and resources. In the end, Mr Biden, who as vice-president lobbied against Barack Obama’s surge of forces to Afghanistan in 2009-10, sided with the latter group.

Officially, America has around 2,500 troops remaining in Afghanistan, though the true number is thought to be slightly higher, and that force is supplemented by several thousand private contractors. They will begin an “orderly drawdown” before May 1st and complete it by September 11th. Mr Biden’s hope may be that by announcing a clear end date, he can dissuade the Taliban from attacking American forces over the summer. Yet the certainty of America’s departure also removes any incentive for the Taliban to make concessions to supporters of the current Afghan state.

Once America—and, crucially, its warplanes—leave, the Taliban will be able to press their advantage. That does not mean the state will collapse at once, but it will struggle to stave off the insurgents’ advances. John Sopko, America’s Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, told Congress in 2020 that the Afghan armed forces remained “a hopeless nightmare and a disaster.” In an interview last month with Task & Purpose, a website, he added that the government had “limited capability to move food, ammunition, medical supplies...to units in the field.” An American intelligence assessment published on April 13th noted that the Afghan government “will struggle to hold the Taliban at bay if the coalition withdraws support.”

Mr Biden’s move will also create a headache for his European allies. Approximately 7,000 troops from other countries, including 1,300 from Germany and almost 900 from Georgia, are deployed to Afghanistan as part of a NATO-led coalition that trains Afghan forces. In February, Jens Stoltenberg, NATO’s secretary-general, promised that “we will not leave before the time is right.” In practice, those troops would be unable to remain in Afghanistan without the insurance policy of American air power and other support. Their departure will leave Afghan security forces further weakened, and the government in Kabul more isolated.

America’s hope is that, even without troops on the ground, it can continue to keep al-Qaeda and Islamic State (which has a modest presence in the east of the country) in check through long-distance counter-terrorism, such as special forces and drones. What is less clear is where those forces would be based. One possibility is that the CIA will keep a paramilitary presence on the ground, working with the National Directorate of Security, Afghanistan’s intelligence service. Another is that America will seek to place forces in Central Asia or Pakistan, where it once discreetly stationed drones. “But the politics of this type of basing remains enormously complicated and the administration hasn't figured out a workable arrangement,” says Asfandyar Mir of Stanford University. “Until that happens, al-Qaeda is going to gain in Afghanistan.”

American officials say they will continue “civilian, economic and humanitarian assistance programmes”. They will no doubt be mindful of the lessons of the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1989, when the Soviet-backed government clung onto power after the departure of foreign troops—but collapsed after the withdrawal of funding at the end of 1991. Yet America’s departure will inevitably create a power vacuum with wider implications. “Regional competition is likely to intensify,” says Avinash Paliwal of the School of Oriental and African Studies in London. During the civil war of the 1990s, Pakistan covertly backed the Taliban—as it does, today—while India, Iran and Russia supported anti-Taliban armed groups in the north of the country with money, arms and intelligence. If Afghanistan’s government begins to crumble, regional powers would expand support to their favoured factions to protect their interests and build influence against rivals.

On September 20th 2001, as American forces geared up to invade Afghanistan, President George W. Bush told a joint session of Congress that “this war will not be like the war against Iraq a decade ago, with a decisive liberation of territory and a swift conclusion.” He was right about that.









						Joe Biden calls time on America’s longest-ever war
					

America leaves behind a weak state and struggling army




					www.economist.com


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## stoker dave

There are no good options.   I think leaving is the least-worst.  A difficult decision to make but ultimately (IMHO) the right one.


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## Fishbone Jones

They don't  need us IMO. Afghans can have whatever government they want and are capable of keeping. We have no chance of guiding indigenous tribes to something they don't want. If they don't want Taliban or al Qaeda, they have the tribal manpower to push them out. If they want democracy, they can do that too. We've spent enough blood and treasure, far and above, considering the current state of affairs. We just have to make sure they understand one thing. Create an atmosphere where you start training for and exporting terrorism again and we'll  just bomb you back to the stone age without setting foot on the ground. We can hurt them a hell of a lot more by making sure their opium and cannabis don't  make it out passed their borders. Simplistic, haven't  looked at all angles, might have it wrong, I don't  know or 
care. I don't  want another penny of our tax money going there at all. For anything. People always say the poor people, who will protect them? The country has, throughout modern times, repelled every technologically, militarily and monetarily superior country that ever tried to rule them. They don't need us. They are very capable of taking whatever direction they want to go. That's  just my 2 cents.


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## Altair

You have the watches but we have the time.


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## medic5

Does anyone really think that the provisional Afghan government will hold up if the US leaves? I'm guessing within a decade the country will go back to what it was pre 2001.


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## Weinie

medik05 said:


> Does anyone really think that the provisional Afghan government will hold up if the US leaves? *I'm guessing within a decade the country will go back to what it was pre 2001.*


Optimist.


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## Colin Parkinson

The west left before and it went to crap. You can tone down the support, but still help out. Regardless in my opinion we have poisoned the well for the Taliban, they never have the power they did have, to many people have some education, to many roads, cell networks and people have glimpsed what can be. The Taliban may gain power, but they have to spill a lot of blood to hold it and they will have nothing to offer when the roads fail, the phones stop working and the hospitals run out of supplies.


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## Weinie

Colin Parkinson said:


> The west left before and it went to crap. You can tone down the support, but still help out. Regardless in my opinion we have poisoned the well for the Taliban, they never have the power they did have, to many people have some education, to many roads, cell networks and people have glimpsed what can be. The Taliban may gain power, but they have to spill a lot of blood to hold it and they will have nothing to offer when the roads fail, the phones stop working and the hospitals run out of supplies.


Don't underestimate the power of an ideology, backed up by ruthless acts.


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## Altair

Colin Parkinson said:


> The west left before and it went to crap. You can tone down the support, but still help out. Regardless in my opinion we have poisoned the well for the Taliban, they never have the power they did have, to many people have some education, to many roads, cell networks and people have glimpsed what can be. The Taliban may gain power, but they have to spill a lot of blood to hold it and they will have nothing to offer when the roads fail, the phones stop working and the hospitals run out of supplies.


If there is one thing the taliban is very skilled at...


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## Colin Parkinson

You can only be so ruthless for so long and the Taliban really don't have much else to offer. If they take over, other than poppies, where else are they going to get funding, China won't have that much interest once the west leaves, except to secure a few routes across the country for roads and pipelines and then they face the same issues as we did. Pakistan cannot afford to prop them up and as soon as the Taliban are in, the Iranians and they will start butting heads again.


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## Weinie

Colin Parkinson said:


> You can only be so ruthless for so long and the Taliban really don't have much else to offer. If they take over, other than poppies, where else are they going to get funding, China won't have that much interest once the west leaves, except to secure a few routes across the country for roads and pipelines and then they face the same issues as we did. Pakistan cannot afford to prop them up and as soon as the Taliban are in, the Iranians and they will start butting heads again.


So Afghanistan fractures into multi-states, ruled by warlords/ideologies in their fiefs. Not inconceivable, but likely non-workable, in a long term sense either. At some point, neighboring countries will be forced to intercede, if only to quell regional domestic disturbances. And then we ratchet up to the grand strategic once again.


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## Altair

Weinie said:


> So Afghanistan fractures into multi-states, ruled by warlords/ideologies in their fiefs. Not inconceivable, but likely non-workable, in a long term sense either. At some point, neighboring countries will be forced to intercede, if only to quell regional domestic disturbances. And then we ratchet up to the grand strategic once again.


Somalia is a apt comparison.


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## daftandbarmy

Weinie said:


> So Afghanistan fractures into multi-states, ruled by warlords/ideologies in their fiefs. Not inconceivable, but likely non-workable, in a long term sense either. At some point, neighboring countries will be forced to intercede, if only to quell regional domestic disturbances. And then we ratchet up to the grand strategic once again.



Oh, I thought you were talking about Europe there for a minute


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## Colin Parkinson

Iranian view on the Taliban surge








						در افغانستان چه می‌گذرد؟ بررسی تحولات افغانستان، روابط طالبان با شیعیان و ایران
					

علت تداوم جنگ افغانستان نه فقط بعلت ورود آمریکا به افغانستان بلکه از ۴۳ سال گذشته و پس از اختلافاتی است که توسط انگلیس در بین اقوام و مذاهب این منطقه کاشته شد و دخالت کشورهای خارجی نظیر شوروی، آمریکا و ناتو در این منازعات آن را بدتر و پیچیده‌تر کرد.




					iswnews.com


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## daftandbarmy

I hope they're reinforcing the roofs of the embassies to take helicopters....
​Taliban show off heavy weapons captured from Afghan army​One by one, the Taliban has been taking over areas in a number of provinces in northern Afghanistan in recent weeks, local officials told CNN. The Taliban says it has taken control of 90 districts across the country since the middle of May. Some were seized without a single shot fired. CNN's Nic Robertson reports.
Source: CNN









						Taliban show off heavy weapons captured from Afghan army | CNN
					

One by one, the Taliban has been taking over areas in a number of provinces in northern Afghanistan in recent weeks, local officials told CNN. The Taliban says it has taken control of 90 districts across the country since the middle of May. Some were seized without a single shot fired. CNN's Nic...




					www.cnn.com


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## CBH99

Colin Parkinson said:


> You can only be so ruthless for so long and the Taliban really don't have much else to offer. If they take over, other than poppies, where else are they going to get funding, China won't have that much interest once the west leaves, except to secure a few routes across the country for roads and pipelines and then they face the same issues as we did. Pakistan cannot afford to prop them up and as soon as the Taliban are in, the Iranians and they will start butting heads again.


Respectfully disagree.  

If China is smart, they will secure what they need to in order to access & secure for future use the abundance of rare earth metals that are abundant in Afghanistan.  

China already has a near monopoly on rare earth metals, and if they have any strategic foresight at all they will move in and secure the resource we failed to.  

I agree the Taliban don’t have much to offer the local population.  But most groups & factions of the Taliban can be bought, and that’s something the Chinese can do easily.  Those who don’t want to play ball will just get killed off.  

If I remember correctly, it is estimated that Afghanistan sits atop a lot of oil.  And whether the powers at me like it or not, the world is going to need that for decades to come.  Even electric powered cars need oil to be built & operate.  So between oil reserves and rare earth metals, if the Chinese are smart they will approach it differently than we did.   

They’ll just fund & ally themselves with the winning side, and just kill them if they deviate from the Chinese plan.  (I have a feeling China was the discreet supplier of night vision equipment & some other you s some Taliban had, provided via proxies.)


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## OldSolduer

medik05 said:


> Does anyone really think that the provisional Afghan government will hold up if the US leaves? I'm guessing within a decade the country will go back to what it was pre 2001.


It won't.


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## daftandbarmy

If you fail to plan, then plan to (hand over trillions in natural resources to the Taliban) fail:

Afghanistan’s Mineral Resources Are a Lost Opportunity and a Threat​Without a coherent strategy, Afghanistan’s vast mineral resources represent both a lost opportunity and a threat to national security.

Torn by four decades of war and desperate poverty, Afghanistan is believed to be sitting on one of the richest troves of minerals in the world. The value of these resources has been roughly estimated between $1-3 trillion.

Afghanistan has vast reserves of gold, platinum, silver, copper, iron, chromite, lithium, uranium, and aluminium. The country’s high-quality emeralds, rubies, sapphires, turquoise, and lapis lazuli have long charmed the gemstone market. The United States Geological Survey (USGS), through its extensive scientific research of minerals, concluded that Afghanistan may hold 60 million metric tons of copper, 2.2 billion tons of iron ore, 1.4 million tons of rare earth elements (REEs) such as lanthanum, cerium, neodymium, and veins of aluminium, gold, silver, zinc, mercury, and lithium. According to Pentagon officials, their initial analysis at one location in Ghazni province showed the potential for lithium deposits as large as those of Bolivia, which has the world’s largest known lithium reserves. The USGS estimates the Khanneshin deposits in Helmand province will yield 1.1.-1.4 million metric tons of REEs. Some reports estimate Afghanistan REE resources are among the largest on earth.

REEs have become essential part of modern technology. They are used in cell phones, televisions, hybrid engines, computers, lasers, and batteries. U.S. Congressional findings have called REEs critical to national security. According to a Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) report, *Washington has not had a unified strategy for the development of Afghanistan’s extractive industries.*









						Afghanistan’s Mineral Resources Are a Lost Opportunity and a Threat
					

Without a coherent strategy, Afghanistan’s vast mineral resources represent both a lost opportunity and a threat to national security.



					thediplomat.com


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## Colin Parkinson

CBH99 said:


> Respectfully disagree.
> 
> If China is smart, they will secure what they need to in order to access & secure for future use the abundance of rare earth metals that are abundant in Afghanistan.
> 
> China already has a near monopoly on rare earth metals, and if they have any strategic foresight at all they will move in and secure the resource we failed to.
> 
> I agree the Taliban don’t have much to offer the local population.  But most groups & factions of the Taliban can be bought, and that’s something the Chinese can do easily.  Those who don’t want to play ball will just get killed off.
> 
> If I remember correctly, it is estimated that Afghanistan sits atop a lot of oil.  And whether the powers at me like it or not, the world is going to need that for decades to come.  Even electric powered cars need oil to be built & operate.  So between oil reserves and rare earth metals, if the Chinese are smart they will approach it differently than we did.
> 
> They’ll just fund & ally themselves with the winning side, and just kill them if they deviate from the Chinese plan.  (I have a feeling China was the discreet supplier of night vision equipment & some other you s some Taliban had, provided via proxies.)


I have no doubts China will try to buy them, but will they stay bought for long? The Taliban are a creature of the Pakistani ISI, but they also turned and bite them as well. China has no love of Muslims and will likely piss them off after a short time.


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## blacktriangle

Yeah, but China isn't stupid enough to try to force their values or government system on Afghanistan. They will seek only enough influence to get what they need out of the country, preferably without use of their military. Or maybe they will send in their military, hold it long enough to strip the country bare, and then leave.


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## dapaterson

The one child policy will restrict Chinese expeditionary operations for the foreseeable future; parents losing their only child would create significant social unrest.

Of course, with that policy now loosened, watch out in 2040 and beyond...


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## Colin Parkinson

they recently implemented the 3 child policy, to much mockery of the people, who ask how anyone can afford 3 kids. they have serious demographic problems. It would be illuminating to see where they draw most of their PLA recruits from?


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## daftandbarmy

Colin Parkinson said:


> they recently implemented the 3 child policy, to much mockery of the people, who ask how anyone can afford 3 kids. they have serious demographic problems. It would be illuminating to see where they draw most of their PLA recruits from?



They still have a couple billion people. I don't think it will be hard to find a few million conscripts with those numbers.


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## The Bread Guy

Just tossing this in from the American Economic Review as grist for the mill ...


> How do foreign powers disengage from a conflict? We study this issue by examining the recent, large-scale security transition from international troops to local forces in the ongoing civil conflict in Afghanistan ... We find a significant, sharp, and timely decline of insurgent violence in the initial phase: the security transfer to Afghan forces. We find that this is followed by a significant surge in violence in the second phase: the actual physical withdrawal of foreign troops. We argue that this pattern is consistent with a signaling model, in which the insurgents reduce violence strategically to facilitate the foreign military withdrawal to capitalize on the reduced foreign military presence afterward ...


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## daftandbarmy

The Bread Guy said:


> Just tossing this in from the American Economic Review as grist for the mill ...



Any extraction plan has to be set within the context of a broader diplomatic/ international political effort to ensure that the Taliban are cut off from resources. Pakistan's support for the Taliban, tacit or otherwise, doesn't help for example:

"Long before the Taliban started advancing towards Kabul, donations for them were on an upswing in Balochistan and other border areas of Pakistan. According to *reports*, Afghan Taliban fighters stay with coal miners in the nearby mountains and come to the bazaar area every Friday to solicit 5,000-10,000 Pakistani rupees (INR 2,500-5,000) from shopkeepers."









						How Afghanistan has once again become a happy hunting ground for Taliban
					

The Taliban has made steady progress ever since the US and allied troops began pulling out from Afghanistan on May 1, raising fears that the Afghan government could collapse within the next six months.




					www.indiatoday.in


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## Colin Parkinson

It is insane that Pakistan argues with Afghanistan as to where the border is, but has almost no real control of the entire NWF. Of course logic and Pakistan are not well acquainted. A stable Afghanistan that is developing would be a economic boom for Pakistan, but that would require the various groups in Pakistan to relinquish small amounts of power and control. Not going to happen. 
Eventually the Taliban are going to do something stupid against the Shia's there and you see Iran invade Western Afghanistan likely aiming for control of Heret, Farah and Zabol


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## Halifax Tar

I saw something on FB, and I have no idea how accurate it is, but it was posted that Ma‘şūm Ghar had fallen to the Taliban. 

Tough pill to swallow if true im sure.


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## daftandbarmy

Bagram handed over to Afghan forces, precipitously it seems:


U.S. hands Bagram Airfield to Afghans after nearly 20 years

After nearly 20 years, the U.S. military left Bagram Airfield, the epicenter of its war to oust the Taliban and hunt down the al Qaeda perpetrators of the 9/11 terrorist attacks on America, two U.S. officials said Friday.

Meanwhile, Afghanistan's district administrator for Bagram, Darwaish Raufi, said the American departure was done overnight without any coordination with local officials, and as a result early Friday dozens of local looters stormed through the unprotected gates before Afghan forces regained control.

"They were stopped and some have been arrested and the rest have been cleared from the base," Raufi told The Associated Press, adding that the looters ransacked several buildings before being arrested and the Afghan National Security and Defence Forces (ANDSF) took control.









						U.S. vacates key Afghan base; pullout target now 'late August'
					

Nearly 20 years after invading Afghanistan to oust the Taliban and hunt down al-Qaida, the U.S. military has vacated its biggest airfield in the country, advancing a final withdrawal that the Pentagon on Friday said will be completed by the end of August.




					www.ctvnews.ca


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## OldSolduer

daftandbarmy said:


> Bagram handed over to Afghan forces, precipitously it seems:
> 
> 
> U.S. hands Bagram Airfield to Afghans after nearly 20 years
> 
> After nearly 20 years, the U.S. military left Bagram Airfield, the epicenter of its war to oust the Taliban and hunt down the al Qaeda perpetrators of the 9/11 terrorist attacks on America, two U.S. officials said Friday.
> 
> Meanwhile, Afghanistan's district administrator for Bagram, Darwaish Raufi, said the American departure was done overnight without any coordination with local officials, and as a result early Friday dozens of local looters stormed through the unprotected gates before Afghan forces regained control.
> 
> "They were stopped and some have been arrested and the rest have been cleared from the base," Raufi told The Associated Press, adding that the looters ransacked several buildings before being arrested and the Afghan National Security and Defence Forces (ANDSF) took control.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> U.S. vacates key Afghan base; pullout target now 'late August'
> 
> 
> Nearly 20 years after invading Afghanistan to oust the Taliban and hunt down al-Qaida, the U.S. military has vacated its biggest airfield in the country, advancing a final withdrawal that the Pentagon on Friday said will be completed by the end of August.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ctvnews.ca


WTF????? Really???

My son underwent surgery in Bagram. But I digress.


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## Good2Golf

OldSolduer said:


> WTF????? Really???
> 
> My son underwent surgery in Bagram. But I digress.


I guess we won’t be going back for Burger King or Popeye’s Chicken…


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## Colin Parkinson

daftandbarmy said:


> Bagram handed over to Afghan forces, precipitously it seems:
> 
> 
> U.S. hands Bagram Airfield to Afghans after nearly 20 years
> 
> After nearly 20 years, the U.S. military left Bagram Airfield, the epicenter of its war to oust the Taliban and hunt down the al Qaeda perpetrators of the 9/11 terrorist attacks on America, two U.S. officials said Friday.
> 
> Meanwhile, Afghanistan's district administrator for Bagram, Darwaish Raufi, said the American departure was done overnight without any coordination with local officials, and as a result early Friday dozens of local looters stormed through the unprotected gates before Afghan forces regained control.
> 
> "They were stopped and some have been arrested and the rest have been cleared from the base," Raufi told The Associated Press, adding that the looters ransacked several buildings before being arrested and the Afghan National Security and Defence Forces (ANDSF) took control.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> U.S. vacates key Afghan base; pullout target now 'late August'
> 
> 
> Nearly 20 years after invading Afghanistan to oust the Taliban and hunt down al-Qaida, the U.S. military has vacated its biggest airfield in the country, advancing a final withdrawal that the Pentagon on Friday said will be completed by the end of August.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.ctvnews.ca


My guess is the US did try to coordinate, but the Afghans were holding out for some sort of deal and were shocked when the US just said "bye"


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## Good2Golf

The ‘clunk’ of the retracting landing gear on the last C-17 out should have been a good indicator…


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## MarkOttawa

Biden at presser today: "I'm not going to answer any more questions on Afghanistan." Sweet, really open and transparent--video here:

*



*
Mark
Ottawa


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## OldSolduer

When are the first beheadings and hangings videos going to show up on YouTube? FUCKKKKKK


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## Brad Sallows

We're about where I figured we'd eventually be.  As I was saying/writing back when this all got rolling, give it a shot.  When ultimately it fails, don't be in such a hurry to effect change where the culture isn't ready for it.  Choose less ambitious exit conditions.


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## The Bread Guy

Colin Parkinson said:


> You can only be so ruthless for so long and the Taliban really don't have much else to offer ....


Unless the Afghan government gets all corrupt-y and such to the point where the Taliban's "law, order & predictability" platform might appeal as it did during Taliban 1.0 times.

Besides, according to the Taliban info-machine (attached from yesterday), all is good, bruh ....


> ... analysts imagined that perhaps the political acuity of the Afghans is so dense that they will give precedence to their differences promoted by malign foreigners over their homogeneity, or they will fall victim to the two-decade propaganda of the occupiers aimed at dividing the nation by accentuating their ethnic, regional and linguistic differences for which they had worked so tirelessly and invested heavily for years on end.
> 
> However, the past few weeks have demonstrated that the two main parties to the Afghan conflict – the Mujahideen of Islamic Emirate and forces loyal to the Kabul administration – have been embracing one another like brothers. We are seeing large groups of forces trained by the invaders defecting, laying down their weapons, renouncing their ties and being warmly welcomed by the Islamic Emirate on a daily basis ...


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## ArmyRick

MarkOttawa said:


> Biden at presser today: "I'm not going to answer any more questions on Afghanistan." Sweet, really open and transparent--video here:
> 
> *
> 
> 
> 
> *
> Mark
> Ottawa


Interesting. Allies kick the tar out of the third reich Germany and than stayed in Germany. Still to this day. They stayed (I think) to maintain stability and to counter an existing threat (Soviets and the warsaw pact). That threat existed for 45-50 years .

So the Taliban, is still a threat but "20 years in this war" and time to go? I am not sure this will end well for anyone.


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## The Bread Guy

ArmyRick said:


> Interesting. Allies kick the tar out of the third reich Germany and than stayed in Germany. Still to this day. They stayed (I think) to maintain stability and to counter an existing threat (Soviets and the warsaw pact). That threat existed for 45-50 years ...


1)  Very different appetite in a range of quarters for long-term sticking around in places these days - remember, even POTUS45 was happy to GTFO that part of the world.

2)  Some out there argue that the original aim of going into AFG was to deal with Osama Bin Laden & Co.  He's now long gone, so "mission accomplished?"  #MissionShiftOrMissionCreep?

I'm for keeping troops or some sort of support in place to keep things better overall (like those smarter than me said upthread, you can help out without maybe quite as many people in country), but it sounds like not everyone is of the same mind.


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## Colin Parkinson

Problem for the Taliban is that their core belief is full on Nutbarism and eventually they crack down on dissent hard and that will backfire on them. It's hardwired into their DNA. Afghanistan is a poor country and the only way to bring it up is with a smart educated and funded administration. The Taliban see higher education as a poison and they are correct, for them it's kryptonite. They may get some funding for awhile, but their methods will lose their charm with their backers soon enough.


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## Altair

ArmyRick said:


> Interesting. Allies kick the tar out of the third reich Germany and than stayed in Germany. Still to this day. They stayed (I think) to maintain stability and to counter an existing threat (Soviets and the warsaw pact). That threat existed for 45-50 years .
> 
> So the Taliban, is still a threat but "20 years in this war" and time to go? I am not sure this will end well for anyone.


The Germans weren't and aren't still trying to kill them after they were defeated.

It wont end well, but that how the west fights wars. All in for a generation, but eventually cannot stand the cost in blood and treasure. 

Russia, UK, France, USA, eventually there comes a point where if the fighting is still ongoing after 10-20 years, we are done.


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## daftandbarmy

Altair said:


> The Germans weren't and aren't still trying to kill them after they were defeated.
> 
> It wont end well, but that how the west fights wars. All in for a generation, but eventually cannot stand the cost in blood and treasure.
> 
> Russia, UK, France, USA, eventually there comes a point where if the fighting is still ongoing after 10-20 years, we are done.


I‘n betting it’s not 100% done. Realpolitik suggests there will be ongoing engagement of some kind, it just might be diplomatic vs. military.


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## FJAG

ArmyRick said:


> Interesting. Allies kick the tar out of the third reich Germany and than stayed in Germany. Still to this day. They stayed (I think) to maintain stability and to counter an existing threat (Soviets and the warsaw pact). That threat existed for 45-50 years .
> 
> So the Taliban, is still a threat but "20 years in this war" and time to go? I am not sure this will end well for anyone.


The Brits left in 1842 and again in 1881, kind of again in 1919, the Soviets left in 1989, then we left and others in dribs and drabs, the Brits are leaving once again. Leaving Afghanistan is a thing. At least we spent some fifteen years building up their national army and good luck with that.

There hasn't really been that much there in combat forces anyway. I don't want to sound pessimistic but I expect we'll all be back again to evacuate our embassies in due course.


----------



## Altair

daftandbarmy said:


> I‘n betting it’s not 100% done. Realpolitik suggests there will be ongoing engagement of some kind, it just might be diplomatic vs. military.


Diplomats will not be able to stop taliban from marching on Kabul when the Afghan army melts away like a ice cream on a hot sidewalk in July.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Altair said:


> Diplomats will not be able to stop taliban from marching on Kabul when the Afghan army melts away like a ice cream on a hot sidewalk in July.



Western culture tends to view such events much differently from Eastern. 

To them, the most important organizational sub-unit is not the battalion, platoon or company. It's the tribe, clan and family unit (if I got those right?).

Afghanistan is far more used to turns of event like these than we are. I'm guessing they'll be just 'fine', with 'fine' being defined by them (not us)


----------



## Altair

daftandbarmy said:


> Western culture tends to view such events much differently from Eastern.
> 
> To them, the most important organizational sub-unit is not the battalion, platoon or company. It's the tribe, clan and family unit (if I got those right?).
> 
> Afghanistan is far more used to turns of event like these than we are. I'm guessing they'll be just 'fine', with 'fine' being defined by them (not us)


Depends on who you define they as. 

I'm not sure women will be fine, young girls in school will be fine, those who like enjoyed a increase in freedoms will be fine. But its a might makes right world in Afghanistan, and if those aforementioned groups don't step up and fight the Taliban with the same determination the Taliban fights the Afghan central government, then that's the way the cookie crumbles.


----------



## OldSolduer

Altair said:


> Depends on who you define they as.
> 
> I'm not sure women will be fine, young girls in school will be fine, those who like enjoyed a increase in freedoms will be fine. But its a might makes right world in Afghanistan, and if those aforementioned groups don't step up and fight the Taliban with the same determination the Taliban fights the Afghan central government, then that's the way the cookie crumbles.


I'm not confident in the Afghan Army. I'm certain we will be seeing heads on pikes, public stonings, hangings and beheadings before the end of this year. 

158 were lost on this and thousands more physically and mentally wounded. I'm torn between "this was a waste of our troops and resources" and "we should be proud for at least trying".


----------



## Altair

OldSolduer said:


> I'm not confident in the Afghan Army. I'm certain we will be seeing heads on pikes, public stonings, hangings and beheadings before the end of this year.
> 
> 158 were lost on this and thousands more physically and mentally wounded. I'm torn between "this was a waste of our troops and resources" and "we should be proud for at least trying".


Both. 

Proud that we tried but it was a waste in the end.


----------



## Good2Golf

OldSolduer said:


> 158 were lost on this and thousands more physically and mentally wounded. I'm torn between "this was a waste of our troops and resources" and "we should be proud for at least trying".


not ‘A’, yes to ‘B’.

I won’t sell Afghans down the river just yet. Will it get ugly for a bit?  Likely.   Is there a younger generation of Afghans who are smart and not willing to slide back into the rural/southern/Pashtun-centric anti-progressive ways of the Taliban without a solid struggle? Yes.  And at the very least, there are a bunch of elected politicians who know what side of their toast the butter is on, and they are quite pragmatic enough not to want to eat the dry side of the toast.

$0.02


----------



## brihard

Panjwai has fallen.









						Taliban capture key Kandahar district, Afghan forces flee to Tajikistan: Report
					

The fall of the Panjwai district in Kandahar reportedly sent scores of families fleeing from the area as the extremist group aims to impose a harsh version of Islamic sharia law.




					www.hindustantimes.com


----------



## OldSolduer

brihard said:


> Panjwai has fallen.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Taliban capture key Kandahar district, Afghan forces flee to Tajikistan: Report
> 
> 
> The fall of the Panjwai district in Kandahar reportedly sent scores of families fleeing from the area as the extremist group aims to impose a harsh version of Islamic sharia law.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.hindustantimes.com


That didn’t take long


----------



## Colin Parkinson

More like "traded away" the soldiers doubt the resilience of the government to hold. We should make sure that the senior members of the government that have benefited so much and given so little have to stay to meet the Taliban.


----------



## Pelorus

FJAG said:


> The Brits left in 1842 and again in 1881, kind of again in 1919, the Soviets left in 1989, then we left and others in dribs and drabs, the Brits are leaving once again. Leaving Afghanistan is a thing. At least we spent some fifteen years building up their national army and good luck with that.



Let's not sleep on the OG attempt to conquer Afghanistan:  









						Into the Land of Bones
					

What George W. Bush called the "first war of the twenty-first century" actually began more than 2,300 years ago when Alexander the Great ...



					www.goodreads.com


----------



## daftandbarmy

boot12 said:


> Let's not sleep on the OG attempt to conquer Afghanistan:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Into the Land of Bones
> 
> 
> What George W. Bush called the "first war of the twenty-first century" actually began more than 2,300 years ago when Alexander the Great ...
> 
> 
> 
> www.goodreads.com




“Afghanistan is more than the ‘graveyard of empires.’ It’s the mother of vicious circles.”

— Maureen Dowd


----------



## The Bread Guy

Meanwhile, whazzup with some of the neighbours ....

*Hundreds Of Afghan Soldiers Flee Into Tajikistan As Taliban Makes More Gains*
*Uzbekistan bracing for possible Afghan refugee crisis*
*US in talks with 3 Central Asian states to provide refuge to 50,000 at-risk Afghans*


----------



## Good2Golf

Acknowledging updates of Taliban takeovers in many districts, after the original article was posted in The Economist, 

D&B, just wondering what led to your naming of the thread, when the article itself was: 🤔 


> Joe Biden calls time on America’s longest-ever war​America leaves behind a weak state and struggling army. ​


Biden was honouring the deal that Trump brokered with the Taliban, ie. US withdraws, and the Taliban pledge to work peacefully with GIRA to develop the way ahead?


----------



## The Bread Guy

If you Google the original headline (with the link in the original post showing exactly that wording), a lot of sources link or refer to it by that headline as of early-mid April - first version outta the Economist gates shows that very headline as of 13 April.

 indeed ...


----------



## daftandbarmy

Good2Golf said:


> Acknowledging updates of Taliban takeovers in many districts, after the original article was posted in The Economist,
> 
> D&B, just wondering what led to your naming of the thread, when the article itself was: 🤔
> 
> Biden was honouring the deal that Trump brokered with the Taliban, ie. US withdraws, and the Taliban pledge to work peacefully with GIRA to develop the way ahead?



I was just lazy and copied the article title into the thread title, as per SOP


----------



## daftandbarmy

The Bread Guy said:


> Meanwhile, whazzup with some of the neighbours ....
> 
> *Hundreds Of Afghan Soldiers Flee Into Tajikistan As Taliban Makes More Gains*
> *Uzbekistan bracing for possible Afghan refugee crisis*
> *US in talks with 3 Central Asian states to provide refuge to 50,000 at-risk Afghans*



We might be missing an opportunity to build a 'Pale Settlement' somewhere so the various Special Forces organizations can train and prepare Afghan nationals, who are currently refugees, to liberate Taliban occupied Afghanistan when the time is right.

You know, kind of like the Bay of Pigs invasion but without the 'failure' part


----------



## Good2Golf

daftandbarmy said:


> I was just lazy and copied the article title into the thread title, as per SOP


What? No clean-up after, like when media gets things wrong or inaccurate and has to fix it? 😉


----------



## OldSolduer

Good2Golf said:


> Acknowledging updates of Taliban takeovers in many districts, after the original article was posted in The Economist,
> 
> D&B, just wondering what led to your naming of the thread, when the article itself was: 🤔
> 
> Biden was honouring the deal that Trump brokered with the Taliban, ie. US withdraws, and the Taliban pledge to work  mostly peacefully with GIRA to develop the way ahead?


FTFY - you're welcome


----------



## Colin Parkinson

daftandbarmy said:


> We might be missing an opportunity to build a 'Pale Settlement' somewhere so the various Special Forces organizations can train and prepare Afghan nationals, who are currently refugees, to liberate Taliban occupied Afghanistan when the time is right.
> 
> You know, kind of like the Bay of Pigs invasion but without the 'failure' part


Iran will hire them to fight in their proxies, which they have already been doing.


----------



## dimsum

Not with a bang, and barely a whimper:









						US left Afghan airfield at night, didn't tell new commander
					

BAGRAM, Afghanistan (AP) — The U.S. left Afghanistan's Bagram Airfield after nearly 20 years by shutting off the electricity and slipping away in the night without notifying the base's new Afghan commander, who discovered the Americans' departure more than two hours after they left, Afghan...




					apnews.com


----------



## daftandbarmy

dimsum said:


> Not with a bang, and barely a whimper:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> US left Afghan airfield at night, didn't tell new commander
> 
> 
> BAGRAM, Afghanistan (AP) — The U.S. left Afghanistan's Bagram Airfield after nearly 20 years by shutting off the electricity and slipping away in the night without notifying the base's new Afghan commander, who discovered the Americans' departure more than two hours after they left, Afghan...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> apnews.com


----------



## CBH99

daftandbarmy said:


> We might be missing an opportunity to build a 'Pale Settlement' somewhere so the various Special Forces organizations can train and prepare Afghan nationals, who are currently refugees, to liberate Taliban occupied Afghanistan when the time is right.
> 
> You know, kind of like the Bay of Pigs invasion but without the 'failure' part


I can’t remember where I read it, as it was several years ago.  But I remember reading a lengthy article by a very senior US Military leader shortly after his retirement, and his argument had been Afghanistan should I have been an SF & Intelligence agency operation since the beginning.  

Put in power who they wanted.  Kill off who they didn’t.  Clean up the power dynamic to help stabilize the country, and help develop industry in a way that would have Afghans at least somewhat able to generate income via legitimate means, even if the ‘government in power’ is also funding itself with opium sales.  


Now?  That option doesn’t even seem possible in the near future.  

It was, however, very generous of the ANA to leave entire shipping containers of US supplied weapons & ammo for the taking.  Getting to set up shop within the protection of a previous NATO FOB is nice, but newly supplied rifles, machine guns, grenades and RPGs?  Gold mine!!

(The ANA were useless as hell during our tour, but that was just my limited experience with them.  Maybe some of you ended up with a better lot than we did.  Seeing them leaving entire shipping containers of weapons for the Taliban?  Doesn’t surprise me, yet still surprised.  I didn’t think they could be more useless…)

0.02


----------



## daftandbarmy

CBH99 said:


> I can’t remember where I read it, as it was several years ago.  But I remember reading a lengthy article by a very senior US Military leader shortly after his retirement, and his argument had been Afghanistan should I have been an SF & Intelligence agency operation since the beginning.
> 
> Put in power who they wanted.  Kill off who they didn’t.  Clean up the power dynamic to help stabilize the country, and help develop industry in a way that would have Afghans at least somewhat able to generate income via legitimate means, even if the ‘government in power’ is also funding itself with opium sales.
> 
> 
> Now?  That option doesn’t even seem possible in the near future.
> 
> It was, however, very generous of the ANA to leave entire shipping containers of US supplied weapons & ammo for the taking.  Getting to set up shop within the protection of a previous NATO FOB is nice, but newly supplied rifles, machine guns, grenades and RPGs?  Gold mine!!
> 
> (The ANA were useless as hell during our tour, but that was just my limited experience with them.  Maybe some of you ended up with a better lot than we did.  Seeing them leaving entire shipping containers of weapons for the Taliban?  Doesn’t surprise me, yet still surprised.  I didn’t think they could be more useless…)
> 
> 0.02




Looks like the locals aren't rolling over without a stiff argument ...


Afghans say recent Taliban advances forced them to take up arms​At least 500 residents in Parwan province pick up guns as the September 11 withdrawal deadline of US forces creeps closer.

*Ghorband Valley, Afghanistan* – Zahir Salangi, a member of Afghanistan’s parliament from the northern province of Parwan, had hoped to settle down on a “doshak” (cushion) to catch a quick nap when the sound of gunfire came pouring through the already damaged house he had set up as a base.

“I haven’t slept in four days,” he told Al Jazeera last week as he sat up to give orders to the nearly two dozen volunteer fighters he had recruited in the fight against the Taliban.

The volunteers say Taliban fighters routinely fire on them from the mountains surrounding the lush valley.

As Salangi rose to his feet, one of the fighters started to shout commands into the walkie-talkie. Piles of glass shards from previous gunfights broke into smaller pieces under the weight of his boots as he paced from one side of the room to the other.

“Respond! Don’t stop firing! Don’t leave them without an answer,” he said while the sounds of gunfire echoed from the mountaintops.

The men are among at least 500 local residents who have picked up guns in recent weeks as the September 11 withdrawal deadline of the United States’ forces creeps closer.









						Afghans say recent Taliban advances forced them to take up arms
					

At least 500 residents in Parwan province pick up guns as September 11 withdrawal deadline of US forces creeps closer.




					www.aljazeera.com


----------



## daftandbarmy

daftandbarmy said:


> Looks like the locals aren't rolling over without a stiff argument ... too bad the SF program didn't seem to bolster their 'militia' potential:
> 
> 
> Afghans say recent Taliban advances forced them to take up arms​At least 500 residents in Parwan province pick up guns as the September 11 withdrawal deadline of US forces creeps closer.
> 
> *Ghorband Valley, Afghanistan* – Zahir Salangi, a member of Afghanistan’s parliament from the northern province of Parwan, had hoped to settle down on a “doshak” (cushion) to catch a quick nap when the sound of gunfire came pouring through the already damaged house he had set up as a base.
> 
> “I haven’t slept in four days,” he told Al Jazeera last week as he sat up to give orders to the nearly two dozen volunteer fighters he had recruited in the fight against the Taliban.
> 
> The volunteers say Taliban fighters routinely fire on them from the mountains surrounding the lush valley.
> 
> As Salangi rose to his feet, one of the fighters started to shout commands into the walkie-talkie. Piles of glass shards from previous gunfights broke into smaller pieces under the weight of his boots as he paced from one side of the room to the other.
> 
> “Respond! Don’t stop firing! Don’t leave them without an answer,” he said while the sounds of gunfire echoed from the mountaintops.
> 
> The men are among at least 500 local residents who have picked up guns in recent weeks as the September 11 withdrawal deadline of the United States’ forces creeps closer.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Afghans say recent Taliban advances forced them to take up arms
> 
> 
> At least 500 residents in Parwan province pick up guns as September 11 withdrawal deadline of US forces creeps closer.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.aljazeera.com


----------



## rmc_wannabe

daftandbarmy said:


> Looks like the locals aren't rolling over without a stiff argument ...


Where the hell were they 5/10/15/20 years ago?


----------



## daftandbarmy

rmc_wannabe said:


> Where the hell were they 5/10/15/20 years ago?



Fighting us... and each other


----------



## CBH99

rmc_wannabe said:


> Where the hell were they 5/10/15/20 years ago?


Right!?  Like damn… good to see, a decade or two late though.

Honestly it is good to see the locals aren’t letting them just roll in.  I fear for their safety though - the Taliban WILL eventually come back to those areas, in strength, and with that ruthlessness they are known for.  

It’ll be interesting to see if the ANA can reorganize themselves and retake these areas.  With some SF help ofcourse.  


Question - just wondering the thoughts of folks who have followed recent events more closely than I.  If there was a different President in power, do you think it would be possible for the Taliban & government to work together?


----------



## rmc_wannabe

CBH99 said:


> Question - just wondering the thoughts of folks who have followed recent events more closely than I.  If there was a different President in power, do you think it would be possible for the Taliban & government to work together?


It doesn't matter who the president is now, it only matters that Donnie T made peace with the Taliban to secure an exit strategy. He essentially hobbled any and all future presidents from propping up Kabul in order to score political points at home. He also will use this as a talking point in 2024, saying he set up the play, but Biden fumbled the ball.

The Taliban do not recognize the GIRoA as a legitimate entity and was never going to commit to a peace deal with them. With the U.S. no longer able to bring air support or SF pers to aid the ANA, its going to look like Saigon 1975 all over again.


----------



## CBH99

rmc_wannabe said:


> It doesn't matter who the president is now, it only matters that Donnie T made peace with the Taliban to secure an exit strategy. He essentially hobbled any and all future presidents from propping up Kabul in order to score political points at home. He also will use this as a talking point in 2024, saying he set up the play, but Biden fumbled the ball.
> 
> The Taliban do not recognize the GIRoA as a legitimate entity and was never going to commit to a peace deal with them. With the U.S. no longer able to bring air support or SF pers to aid the ANA, its going to look like Saigon 1975 all over again.


I fear you are correct.  

I imagine the US will be keeping some hard hitting SF capabilities in country, as will the intelligence agencies.  (CIA, ahem.)

The US will still want the ability to react to things in some capacity.  And I imagine there will be some shadowy stuff in the background with various Taliban leaders.  


(Vietnam eventually became a lovely, tourist friendly country with a healthy tourism market, resorts, history excursions, etc.  Do we think Afghanistan will ever turn that same corner, while any of us are still alive?)


----------



## OldSolduer

CBH99 said:


> Honestly it is good to see the locals aren’t letting them just roll in.  I fear for their safety though - the Taliban WILL eventually come back to those areas, in strength, and with that ruthlessness they are known for.


IMO they are vicious murderers who need to be wiped off the face of the planet. I have a very visceral hatred of the Taliban and AQ. 

You can expect anyone that worked along side allied forces to be "reeducated".  I fear for their lives.


----------



## CBH99

OldSolduer said:


> IMO they are vicious murderers who need to be wiped off the face of the planet. I have a very visceral hatred of the Taliban and AQ.
> 
> You can expect anyone that worked along side allied forces to be "reeducated".  I fear for their lives.


Me too.  Very much so.  

I very much try to ‘tame’ my words these days, and try to be mindful of how I say certain things so don’t come across as an armchair general.  (Or a psycho…)

But as much as we like to pamper our societies in the west, and blanket over people and things which are plainly evil with ‘educated nonsense’….  

The world is overpopulated.  The planet is facing real problems whether we want to acknowledge our role in it or not.  And overpopulation is a notable contributor to current and future conflicts, the likes of which are unique and new.  

When it comes to the Taliban, AQ, ISIS, Boko, etc etc - I wish it was as simple as wiping them off the planet.  If they didn’t regenerate themselves (especially Taliban and AQ) it would be amazing.  

The world doesn’t need girls having acid poured on them, schools being blown up, teachers and families threatened, bombs going off at Ariana Grande concerts (where the victims are teenaged girls) - etc etc.  

It doesn’t need to have people who are illiterate & poor being manipulated into believing a higher power wants them to go kill innocents or blow themselves up.  None of that.  


I am with you.  If there was a way to take them all out and not allow them to somehow regenerate, I’d be pushing hard for it.

I HOPE we at least got our interpreters here by now??


----------



## Brad Sallows

In view of the history of Afghanistan, I enjoy watching people argue for staying there.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Brad Sallows said:


> In view of the history of Afghanistan, I enjoy watching people argue for staying there.



I don't advocate for staying in the quagmire. I just would have rather we got it to a manageable state, instead of climbing out on the backs of our unprepared allies.


----------



## OldSolduer

Brad Sallows said:


> In view of the history of Afghanistan, I enjoy watching people argue for staying there.


No kidding. I work with an Afghan who was raised in refugee camps in Pakistan. 

He did mention that in the north of Afghanistan there are people with lighter skin and blue eyes, a legacy of Alexander the Great's attempt to conquer the place. He failed.


----------



## daftandbarmy

rmc_wannabe said:


> I don't advocate for staying in the quagmire. I just would have rather we got it to a manageable state, instead of climbing out on the backs of our *unprepared allies.*



Well, to be fair, they had  great opporuntiyt to 'prepare', you know, like South Vietnam, Cuba, Iran etc etc....


----------



## rmc_wannabe

daftandbarmy said:


> Well, to be fair, they had  great opporuntiyt to 'prepare', you know, like South Vietnam, Cuba, Iran etc etc....



Proxy wars man.... you want something done right, do it yourself. Sheesh.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

OldSolduer said:


> No kidding. I work with an Afghan who was raised in refugee camps in Pakistan.
> 
> He did mention that in the north of Afghanistan there are people with lighter skin and blue eyes, a legacy of Alexander the Great's attempt to conquer the place. He failed.



I think also the Soviet raping conquest has more to do with that phenomenon than ol' Sikandar Khan.


----------



## OldSolduer

rmc_wannabe said:


> I think also the Soviet raping conquest has more to do with that phenomenon than ol' Sikandar Khan.


I know of an edition of National Geographic in which the cover photo was of an Afghan teen age girl with bright green eyes - in 1985. Apparently some of Alexander's troops decided to stay put.

Link



			https://i.ebayimg.com/images/g/tbYAAOSwmfFf4r1H/s-l300.jpg


----------



## CBH99

One if my good buddies was born in Afghanistan, but raised here since he was just a wee lad.  

His little sister doesn’t look all that Afghan.  Light skin, and her features are far more akin to a Euro-Ottoman mix.  

When she first told me they were from Afghanistan, she quipped “ We were bleached a few centuries ago” 😅

Took me years to figure out what she meant


----------



## MJP

OldSolduer said:


> I know of an edition of National Geographic in which the cover photo was of an Afghan teen age girl with bright green eyes - in 1985. Apparently some of Alexander's troops decided to stay put.
> 
> Link
> 
> 
> 
> https://i.ebayimg.com/images/g/tbYAAOSwmfFf4r1H/s-l300.jpg


She is Sharbat Gula. Lots of backstory to that photo and the photojournalist in question Steve McCurry used questionable methods to take the photo. The story is Sharbat Gula eyes reflect the hardship of war but really she is scared of Steve taking photos of her without her face being covered.  She was pressured then and again in 2017 to show her face.









						Famed 'Afghan Girl' Finally Gets a Home
					

More than 30 years after she became a refugee from her native Afghanistan, Sharbat Gula has been deeded a permanent house.




					www.nationalgeographic.com


----------



## OldSolduer

Now that I have completely derailed this conversation I may as well plug a podcast. Dan Carlin's Hardcore History had a four or five part series called "The Wrath of the Khans". 

Getting back to Afghanistan - what's next?


----------



## Remius

OldSolduer said:


> Now that I have completely derailed this conversation I may as well plug a podcast. Dan Carlin's Hardcore History had a four or five part series called "The Wrath of the Khans".
> 
> Getting back to Afghanistan - what's next?


I suspect a Taliban takeover and a quest for legitimacy by them.


----------



## medic5

OldSolduer said:


> Now that I have completely derailed this conversation I may as well plug a podcast. Dan Carlin's Hardcore History had a four or five part series called "The Wrath of the Khans".
> 
> Getting back to Afghanistan - what's next?


Dan Carlin's podcast is absolutely amazing. I've been listening to his Pacific War series, and I am enjoying all 20 hours of it.


----------



## medic5

Remius said:


> I suspect a Taliban takeover and a quest for legitimacy by them.


My guess is the Taliban slowly takes over parts of the country, overwhelming the ANA, and when the west is distracted by something big, they capture the rest of the country and throw out the government and embassies.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

when the Taliban have no money to fix the roads, provide fuel for the generators to run the cell towers and no one to run the dam for them and the water disappears. then they will rue the day they "won".


----------



## Brad Sallows

> I just would have rather we got it to a manageable state



"Manageable state" and "fixed" are both so far out on the tail of diminishing returns as to be indistinguishable.  There is no COA which is inexpensive, quick, and worthwhile.


----------



## Weinie

Colin Parkinson said:


> when the Taliban have no money to fix the roads, provide fuel for the generators to run the cell towers and no one to run the dam for them and the water disappears. then they will rue the day they "won".


But they will have money to feed themselves, and their enablers, thus continuing their rule. It is always so under an autocracy.


----------



## rmc_wannabe

Colin Parkinson said:


> when the Taliban have no money to fix the roads, provide fuel for the generators to run the cell towers and no one to run the dam for them and the water disappears. then they will rue the day they "won".


This. 

You can only suppress opposition so much, especially when the people you are suppressing have gotten comfortable with a certain way of life. When the Taliban "Department of Public Works" fails to manifest, there will be hell to pay.

"The extraordinary greatness of the Roman Empire manifests itself above all in three things: the aqueducts, the paved roads, and the construction of the drains."
Dionysius of Halicarnassus


----------



## Weinie

rmc_wannabe said:


> This.
> 
> You can only suppress opposition so much, especially when the people you are suppressing have gotten comfortable with a certain way of life. *When the Taliban "Department of Public Works" fails to manifest, there will be hell to pay.*
> 
> "The extraordinary greatness of the Roman Empire manifests itself above all in three things: the aqueducts, the paved roads, and the construction of the drains."
> Dionysius of Halicarnassus


Hell to pay quails in the face of AK-47's. I hope you are right.


----------



## brihard

The place is shot. Check back in in 50 years. We tried to establish and prop up a centralized government on a series of lines on the map that encapsulate a body politic that is arguably ungovernable in any way we would envision or accept.

Durand got us again.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

brihard said:


> The place is shot. Check back in in 50 years. We tried to establish and prop up a centralized government on a series of lines on the map that encapsulate a body politic that is arguably ungovernable in any way we would envision or accept.
> 
> Durand got us again.


I see this as simply a new phase of the war.  The IRoA was never a real polity anyways and never controlled the entire Country, even with NATO there.  The Taliban, even at the height of their power just prior to 9/11/01 only controlled around 75% of the Country.  There is no guarantee that the Taliban will be able to even come close to achieving that this time around.

I see Afghanistan going the way Colombia was for 50+ years with large portions of the Countryside being under control of the Taliban (which is already the case) and Kabul remaining under the control of the IRoA.  Other players may also emerge that aren't allied to either side. The IRoA should consolidate around Kabul and leave the South entirely.  At this point, the Taliban control roughly 1/3 of Afghanistan's population while the IRoA controls 1/3 with roughly another 1/3 being in contested areas.

If the IRoA tries to fight the Taliban everywhere, that is a losing strategy and it will surely fail.  What may actually happen is this becomes a long and protracted civil war that goes on for decades and Afghanistan fractures in to several new States.


----------



## Altair

Humphrey Bogart said:


> I see this as simply a new phase of the war.  The IRoA was never a real polity anyways and never controlled the entire Country, even with NATO there.  The Taliban, even at the height of their power just prior to 9/11/01 only controlled around 75% of the Country.  There is no guarantee that the Taliban will be able to even come close to achieving that this time around.
> 
> I see Afghanistan going the way Colombia was for 50+ years with large portions of the Countryside being under control of the Taliban (which is already the case) and Kabul remaining under the control of the IRoA.  Other players may also emerge that aren't allied to either side. The IRoA should consolidate around Kabul and leave the South entirely.  At this point, the Taliban control roughly 1/3 of Afghanistan's population while the IRoA controls 1/3 with roughly another 1/3 being in contested areas.
> 
> If the IRoA tries to fight the Taliban everywhere, that is a losing strategy and it will surely fail.  What may actually happen is this becomes a long and protracted civil war that goes on for decades and Afghanistan fractures in to several new States.


Consolidation sounds nice, but one needs an army that will actually fight for that to happen.

Otherwise the taliban will do what napoleon did, and win simply by marching.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Quick anniversary note - 10 years since Canada's combat mission wrapped up.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Altair said:


> Consolidation sounds nice, but one needs an army that will actually fight for that to happen.
> 
> Otherwise the taliban will do what napoleon *and ISIS *did, and win simply by marching.



There, FTFY


----------



## quadrapiper

daftandbarmy said:


> There, FTFY


Didn't the Iraqi army, pre-ISIS, appear much more stable than the ANA, too?


----------



## OldSolduer

Colin Parkinson said:


> when the Taliban have no money to fix the roads, provide fuel for the generators to run the cell towers and no one to run the dam for them and the water disappears. then they will rue the day they "won". I’m


As long as the scum of the earth Taliban have enough to supply themselves they'll be ok with stoning women and infidels. Barbarians.


----------



## daftandbarmy

quadrapiper said:


> Didn't the Iraqi army, pre-ISIS, appear much more stable than the ANA, too?



Not 'Precipitous Post-US withdrawal' they weren't....


----------



## Altair

daftandbarmy said:


> There, FTFY


Speed, surprise, audacity,  if they were not extremist cold blooded murderers one would be impressed with how ISIS and the taliban are conducting their lightning campaigns.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Both the Taliban and ISIS in Iraq prepared the ground, by secret negotiations, intimidation, murder and marriage. they "shaped the battle" before it started.


----------



## suffolkowner

In Afghanistan do they think about splitting the country along Tajik/Pashtun lines and would that even help?


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Altair said:


> Consolidation sounds nice, but one needs an army that will actually fight for that to happen.
> 
> Otherwise the taliban will do what napoleon did, and win simply by marching.



I think you ignored a large portion of my post but I'll re-state it....

The Taliban never controlled all of Afghanistan, even at the height of their power from 1996-2001.  The Afghan Army is incapable of holding on to the entire Country but they still have capable fighting units and can control parts of the Country.  

I don't think the Taliban will be able to control the entire Country and we will enter a long period of protracted civil war.


----------



## Altair

Humphrey Bogart said:


> I think you ignored a large portion of my post but I'll re-state it....
> 
> The Taliban never controlled all of Afghanistan, even at the height of their power from 1996-2001.  The Afghan Army is incapable of holding on to the entire Country but they still have capable fighting units and can control parts of the Country.
> 
> I don't think the Taliban will be able to control the entire Country and we will enter a long period of protracted civil war.


You said the IRoA should leave the south and consolidate around the capital.

I'm saying that if the taliban marches on Kabul the ANA won't stand and fight and the talibam takes Kabul.

Whether they hold it or other regions is a open question, likely not. But I think the IRoA is on borrowed time and won't exist in a year or two.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Humphrey Bogart said:


> I think you ignored a large portion of my post but I'll re-state it....
> 
> The Taliban never controlled all of Afghanistan, even at the height of their power from 1996-2001.  The Afghan Army is incapable of holding on to the entire Country but they still have capable fighting units and can control parts of the Country.
> 
> I don't think the Taliban will be able to control the entire Country and we *they *will enter a long period of protracted civil war.



There, FTFY


----------



## Colin Parkinson

suffolkowner said:


> In Afghanistan do they think about splitting the country along Tajik/Pashtun lines and would that even help?


Absolutely not, the Colonial constructs of artificially drawn lines must be maintained at all costs. It's really funny to see people complain of colonialism and then defend the current borders or demand that the Golan be returned to Syria because of two colonialists said that it was a good idea to put a line there.


----------



## MilEME09

Video is surfacing of a group of 10 Afghan commandos being executed after surrendering to the taliban. War crime o'clock apparently in Afghanistan today.








						(NSFW) Taliban Execute 10 Afghan SOF Troops After Surrender in Leaked Video
					

Warning, graphic content - Footage has been released which reportedly shows how the Taliban are treating the Afghan National Army (ANA) soldiers after they surrender.




					funker530.com


----------



## CBH99

Good to see the Taliban have recognized a great way to actually gain more power is with improving their image 🙄

Genuinely sorry to see this.  Rest easy lads.


----------



## OldSolduer

MilEME09 said:


> Video is surfacing of a group of 10 Afghan commandos being executed after surrendering to the taliban. War crime o'clock apparently in Afghanistan today.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> (NSFW) Taliban Execute 10 Afghan SOF Troops After Surrender in Leaked Video
> 
> 
> Warning, graphic content - Footage has been released which reportedly shows how the Taliban are treating the Afghan National Army (ANA) soldiers after they surrender.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> funker530.com


That didn’t take long. Murderers. I cannot express adequately my absolute loathing for the Taliban.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Well of course pilots get 'assassinated' while Infantry just get 'butchered'  

Special Report: Afghan pilots assassinated by Taliban as U.S. withdraws​

KABUL, July 9, (Reuters) - Afghan Air Force Major Dastagir Zamaray had grown so fearful of Taliban assassinations of off-duty forces in Kabul that he decided to sell his home to move to a safer pocket of Afghanistan's sprawling capital.

Instead of being greeted by a prospective buyer at his realtor's office earlier this year, the 41-year-old pilot was confronted by a gunman who walked inside and, without a word, fatally shot the real estate agent in the mouth.

Zamaray reached for his sidearm but the gunman shot him in the head. The father of seven collapsed dead on his 14-year-old son, who had tagged along. The boy was spared, but barely speaks anymore, his family says.

Zamaray “only went there because he personally knew the realtor and thought it was safe," Samiullah Darman, his brother-in-law, told Reuters. "We didn’t know that he would never come back."

At least seven Afghan pilots, including Zamaray, have been assassinated off base in recent months, according to two senior Afghan government officials. This series of targeted killings, which haven't been previously reported, illustrate what U.S. and Afghan officials believe is a deliberate Taliban effort to destroy one of Afghanistan's most valuable military assets: its corps of U.S.- and NATO-trained military pilots.

In so doing, the Taliban -- who have no air force -- are looking to level the playing field as they press major ground offensives. The militants are quickly seizing territory once controlled by the U.S.-backed government of President Ashraf Ghani, raising fears they could eventually try to topple Kabul.


Reuters confirmed the identities of two of the slain pilots through family members. It could not independently verify the names of the other five who were allegedly targeted.

In response to questions from Reuters, Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid confirmed the group had killed Zamaray, and that it had started a program that will see Afghan Air Force pilots “targeted and eliminated because all of them do bombardment against their people."

A U.N. report documented 229 civilian deaths caused by the Taliban in Afghanistan in the first three months of 2021, and 41 civilian deaths caused by the Afghan Air Force over the same period.

Afghanistan's government has not publicly disclosed the number of pilots assassinated in targeted killings. The nation's Defense Ministry did not respond to requests for comment. The Pentagon said it was aware of the deaths of several Afghan pilots in killings claimed by the Taliban, but declined comment on U.S. intelligence and investigations.

Afghan military pilots are particularly attractive assassination targets, current and former U.S. and Afghan officials say. They can strike Taliban forces massing for major attacks, shuttle commandos to missions and provide life-saving air cover for Afghan ground troops. Pilots take years to train and are hard to replace, representing an outsized blow to the country's defenses with every loss.

Shoot-downs and accidents are ever-present risks. Yet these pilots often are most vulnerable in the streets of their own neighborhoods, where attackers can come from anywhere, said retired U.S. Brigadier General David Hicks, who commanded the training effort for the Afghan Air Force from 2016 to 2017.

"Their lives were at much greater risk during that time (off base) than they were while they were flying combat missions," Hicks said.

Although Taliban assassinations of pilots have happened in years past, the recent killings take on greater significance as the Afghan Air Force is tested like never before.

Just last week, U.S. forces left America’s main military bastion in Afghanistan, Bagram Air Base outside Kabul, as they complete their withdrawal from the country 20 years after ousting the Taliban following the Al Qaeda attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.










						Special Report: Afghan pilots assassinated by Taliban as U.S. withdraws
					

Afghan Air Force Major Dastagir Zamaray had grown so fearful of Taliban assassinations of off-duty forces in Kabul that he decided to sell his home to move to a safer pocket of Afghanistan's sprawling capital.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## daftandbarmy

The Daily Prole comments....

Catastrophe stalks Afghanistan as the US and UK dash for the exit​

Military retreats from Afghanistan are problematic, as the British (1842) and the Red Army (1989) discovered to their cost. The cliffs of the Khyber Pass feature many memorials and plaques to departing or defeated foreign forces. The 2021 Afghan withdrawal is less fraught – the US is not yet retreating under fire. But the march to the exit has nonetheless turned into an undignified sprint.

Most Americans will welcome this accelerated end to an unpopular war. Yet it spells catastrophe for Afghans who pinned their hopes and their country’s future on western support in fighting Taliban and Islamist terrorism and who believed the nation-building promises made by George W Bush and others.

Fighting is currently spreading like a bushfire from district to district. There is no peace deal in place, no power-sharing, no intra-Afghan ceasefire, and growing fear of nationwide conflagration – and yet still the Americans are leaving.
Advertisement

Two questions are unavoidable: after expending so much blood and treasure, what of lasting import was achieved? And what on earth will happen next?

When US president Joe Biden set a withdrawal deadline of 11 September, exactly 20 years after the al-Qaida attacks that triggered America’s intervention, the Pentagon decided to get out as soon as possible. UK and other Nato allies are following suit. It’s now expected all foreign forces, plus 17,000 mostly American contractors, will be gone by mid-July.

The outlook for the vast majority of Afghans who do not espouse extreme religious views and misogynistic feudal dogmas is simply terrifying. Civilian casualties rose 29% in January to March, compared with 2020. Government figures recorded 4,375 terrorism-related deaths in May, up from 1,645 in April. Among last month’s civilian victims were 50 schoolgirls from a Shia Hazara neighbourhood in Kabul, deliberately targeted by Sunni militants. Aid workers, polio vaccinators, and journalists, especially women, are also singled out. The terrorists’ agenda of hate is only too clear.

The western-trained Afghan national army is struggling. Short of ammunition and supplies, 26 bases reportedly surrendered to the Taliban last month. An elite special forces commando was wiped out last week in Faryab province. The ANA’s one big advantage – air power – is evaporating as foreign technical and logistical back-up melts away.

Entire provinces, such as Uruzgan, and provincial capitals such as Kandahar and Helmand’s Lashkar Gah, for which British troops fought, risk overrun. Even Kabul itself may not be safe for long, according to gloomy CIA and military intelligence assessments.

Suggestions that the US will in future send combat aircraft and armed drones from neighbouring countries to support Afghan ground forces were dismissed last week. Gen Frank McKenzie, head of US Central Command, warned that even if Kabul were on the brink of falling, any post-withdrawal air strikes would be limited to countering terror plots that threatened the US “homeland”.

Such unusual restraint reflects the Pentagon’s inability to find alternative bases within reasonable striking distance. Pakistan, which covertly backs the Taliban and fell out with the US in 2011, does not want the Americans back.

Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, which previously hosted US troops and spies, are unlikely to do so again – for fear of offending Russia. Iran is out of the question.

Lack of a credible post-withdrawal security plan is matched by the absence of an agreed political path ahead. Talks in Doha between the Taliban and the Afghan government of President Ashraf Ghani have achieved little. Demands that Taliban leaders guarantee civil rights and girls’ education have not been met.

US insistence that the Taliban refuse safe haven to al-Qaida and the Afghan iteration of Islamic State has also been ignored. On the contrary, senior Afghan officials say, these Sunni groups are working together. The Taliban’s aim? Total victory.

The CIA’s fear that Afghanistan could again become a regional terror hub is shared by China and India. Beijing has offered investment and vaccines, seeking another link in its belt and road imperial masterplan. China’s nightmare is that Afghan-based jihadists will join forces with persecuted Uyghur Muslims in Xinjiang.

Ever greater fragmentation looms. Ethnic groups that comprised the Northern Alliance in the 1990s civil war oppose a fresh Taliban takeover. Ahmad Massoud, son of the Lion of Panjshir, Ahmad Shah Massoud, who was assassinated by the Taliban two days before the 9/11 attacks, says the mujahideen are ready to fight.
https://www.theguardian.com/comment...rapped-and-has-no-good-choices-in-afghanistan
Escalating violence in Afghanistan could destabilise the region, add hunger and displacement to existing problems of Covid, drought and climate change, create new refugee surges, destroy the quest for equal rights and justice for war crimes, and betray the sacrifices of western and Afghan soldiers. Yet it is now a very real prospect.

Western politicians, including in the UK (which is withdrawing aid as well as troops), shield their eyes. They don’t want to see, let alone discuss, what’s about to happen. Nato last week pledged future security force training and funding and said it would “continue to stand” with Afghanistan. Stand back, more like.

Catastrophe stalks the Afghan people. Nato claims a “new chapter” is beginning. That’s true, but it’s a cause for fear, not pride. The US and partners achieved little in terms of permanent progress, and even that meagre legacy is now threatened. Robert Gates, defence secretary under Bush and Barack Obama, pleads: “The situation will doubtless worsen when US troops are gone … We cannot turn our backs.” But his is a lonely voice.

What to do? I’ve been writing about Afghanistan for more than 30 years. I’ve reported from the country and personally witnessed its poverty and pain. I don’t know the answer. Who does? But scurrying off home, regardless of consequences, is certainly not it.









						Catastrophe stalks Afghanistan as the US and UK dash for the exit
					

Little has been achieved in 20 years of war, and as the Taliban regroup, ordinary Afghans brace for an uncertain future




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## OldSolduer

Gwyn Dyer had an article in the WFP today. The end is nigh…


----------



## MarkOttawa

The great Rosie DiManno:



> *As the Taliban retakes Afghanistan, a sense of disastrous déjà vu*





> Kabul by Christmas.
> 
> Which is where we were, Kabul at Christmas, 2001, when the Taliban had just been toppled, ousted by an intense bombing campaign led by American and British forces, with the brutal regime’s Al Qaeda “guests’’ in disarray and on the run.
> 
> With the 20th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks looming, the U.S. has extricated itself from its longest foreign war — in an unseemly military scramble for the exits — the Brits and NATO have bugged out, and Afghanistan is teetering on the precipice of disastrous déjà vu.
> 
> Leaving behind the vast Bagram airfield outside the capital, with thousands of civilian trucks and hundreds of armoured vehicles just sitting there. A ghost-base, hastily evacuated and handed over to Afghan forces, awaiting scavenging by the Taliban.
> 
> Leaving behind, too, a litany of broken promises — the assurance, from the West, that Afghanistan would never be abandoned again…
> 
> Within hours of Bagram being vacated, the Taliban was on the march, surging and expanding their reach, with only the Afghan air force to check their advance. They captured hundreds of rural districts in the north and surrounded the capital of Badakhshan, with upwards of 1,000 Afghan troops — demoralized and poorly equipped — fleeing their posts, crossing a river bridge into bordering Tajikistan. Hundreds more — Afghan army, police and intelligence troops — laid down their weapons and surrendered when their positions were overwhelmed…
> 
> “Rumours are being published that the Taliban are imposing restrictions or even a complete ban on media, people and women in the newly liberated areas,’’ Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said in a statement released last week. “We reject such propaganda. All schools are fully open, the media is allowed to operate in a free and neutral manner within Islamic rules, clinics and health centres are able to work without any constraints. Civil servants, journalists can also live and perform their duties without fear.’’
> 
> Right. Pull the other one.
> 
> This was the fundamentalist regime that banned music and television, forced men to grow their beards, executed, threw suspected homosexuals off rooftops and conducted public executions for those caught breaking Taliban edicts.
> 
> …there’s no hope for Afghans. They’re doomed, even as the Taliban says it will present a written peace proposal to the government as soon as next month at the stalled negotiations in Doha. The U.S. has repeatedly sought neighbouring Pakistan’s help to convince the insurgents to deliver a written plan. But Pakistan is treacherous. It incubated the Taliban and its regional aspirations have long relied on the Taliban. This is, after all, the country that sheltered Osama bin Laden, its denials not worth a fig.
> 
> My fixer, driver and friend for nearly two decades, sends desperate texts. “I need to get my family out. They’ll come for the interpreters first. Please can you help?’’
> 
> He’s been an interpreter for NATO for years.
> 
> Canada’s combat mission in Afghanistan ended in 2011, transitioning to a training mission. Ottawa has said it will take in hundreds of vulnerable Afghans, interpreters, embassy staff and their families. The U.S. has promised to relocate thousands of interpreters by next month. Which might be too late.
> 
> I’m sorry Faramaz. I’m so sorry.
> 
> _Rosie DiManno is a Toronto-based columnist covering sports and current affairs for the Star. Follow her on Twitter: @RDiManno_
> Opinion | As the Taliban retakes Afghanistan, a sense of disastrous déjà vu



Mark
Ottawa


----------



## OldSolduer

I certainly hope this lights a fire under the fat asses of the bureaucrats who are stalling about the immigration of some of the interpreters that our military employed.


----------



## dimsum

OldSolduer said:


> I certainly hope this lights a fire under the fat asses of the bureaucrats who are stalling about the immigration of some of the interpreters that our military employed.









I would be shocked if that's even on the Top 10 of their radar, unless it's prompted by another political party asking "why didn't the current Liberal Govt do this sooner?"


----------



## brihard

For anyone with Facebook, the page “Canadian Afghanistan War Veterans Association” has informative updates from historian/correspondent Sean Maloney. He’s working contacts he still has on the ground... It’s grim.


----------



## Jarnhamar

brihard said:


> For anyone with Facebook, the page “Canadian Afghanistan War Veterans Association” has informative updates from historian/correspondent Sean Maloney. He’s working contacts he still has on the ground... It’s grim.


I've stayed in touch with an interpreter on and off over the years. He said the Taliban is even going after people who worked for NATO 15 years ago.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Jarnhamar said:


> I've stayed in touch with an interpreter on and off over the years. He said the Taliban is even going after people who worked for NATO 15 years ago.



“May God keep you away from the venom of the cobra, the teeth of the tiger, and the revenge of the Afghans.”​— Alexander the Great


----------



## MilEME09

Well now this might get interesting.....just how deep are the talibans relations with China?

Full link below


----------



## Scoobs

Acting CDS' comments on current state of affairs in Afg.  Personally, having been to Afg like many of my fellow veterans here, I agree with LGen Eyre when he states that it was never going to be a military solution and that the people of Afg had to do it for themselves at some point.  Doesn't make it hurt any less to see what's going on though:

"Many of us have been watching the reports coming out of Afghanistan with dismay. The fall of Panjwai, reported last week, has hit many of us particularly hard, and as we question our legacy, it serves as a harbinger for all Canadians who served in the country, regardless of when and where.

Panjwai District, with its place names such as Masum Ghar, Nakhonay, Sperwan Ghar, and Mushan, are indelibly etched into the collective psyche of those who served there. The heat, the dust, the grape rows, and the poppy fields all provide a backdrop to what truly troubles us – our investment of effort, of sweat, and most of all of blood.

Our Afghan experience has left none untouched, and many, including families, are scarred physically, mentally, and morally from it. Many of us have been asking, some for years, ‘was it worth it?’ Answers will be deeply personal, and not all have reached a final conclusion other than ‘time will tell’.

We can hold our heads high knowing that we did everything our government asked us to do. Our members served with valour and selflessness, and were there to make a difference. The solution was never going to be a military one, and what we gave the people and the government of Afghanistan was time. The decision with what to do with that time was theirs to make.

While history will be the ultimate judge, the current trajectory of the country leaves us with much pain and doubt. After their wars, our forebears were able to visit many of the countries in which they served, such as in Europe and Korea, and put their sacrifices in context, giving them meaning when they saw hope and prosperity rise out of the rubble and ashes. At this moment in time, it is difficult to envision having similar sentiments for our war.

So where does that leave us? Should we hang our heads in bitterness and remorse; or should we continue to venerate the sacrifices of so many in our ranks and their families, to honour the noble commitment to service and making the world a better place, and endeavour to learn from our experiences, grow, and become better every day? While none of us can speak for them, I have to believe that our Fallen would want us to pursue the latter.

If you are struggling with your experience, I ask you to reach out for help.


*For current CAF members and families:*


CAF Members have access to mental health care and a range of support services provided at Canadian Forces Health Services primary care clinics across Canada. Care is also available for those deployed. Many services are available either with or without an appointment, and there is a choice of in-person or virtual/telephone.
Member Assistance Program (CFMAP) is a confidential advisory and referral service that is external to the CAF and available to members and their families by phone 24-hours-a-day, seven-days –a-week at 1-800-268-7708.
Spiritual guidance and support are available through military chaplains.
Information on these and other medical and mental health care and support services for military members and their families may be found on the Military Mental Health “You’re Not Alone” web page.

Beyond these resources – speak to a friend, family member, your supervisor, or a mental health professional – do not shoulder this burden alone. Pain shared is pain divided.


*For Veterans and families:*

For Veterans as well as family members or caregivers who are struggling, VAC Assistance Service is available 24/7. Call 1-800-268-7708 (TDD/TYY: 1-800-567-5803) to talk to a mental health professional.

More information on counselling services, peer support and free online resources for Veterans and families can be found in the Mental health and wellness section of the Veterans Affairs Canada web site.

Lieutenant-General Wayne Eyre

Acting Chief of the Defence Staff"


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

The reality is that the War in Afghanistan was never about nation-building, women's rights, fighting poverty, etc.  These are all things that may have come about as a result of the Military Campaign but it was never the aim.  

The objectives were largely achieved when we routed Al Qaeda and killed Bin Laden and rolled up his network.  The mistake was overstaying and thinking we were there to Nation build.  The Taliban =/= Al Qaeda and vice-versa. Canada already made a decision long ago that we didn't care about Afghanistan by withdrawing completely from the South over a decade ago.  Afghanistan needs to build its own future, whatever that looks like.

Impoverished children and tribal warfare was not the reason we deployed to Afghanistan and while impoverished children are a sad sight, there are impoverished children in Canada where our energy would be better spent.  

Think of the people killed in the 9/11 attacks, including Canadians.  I would say we made our enemies more than pay for that attack and the conditions that allowed that to occur no longer exist. Sometimes Victory doesn't look what you think it looks like.


----------



## NavyShooter

That's quite succinct - a better way to express it than what I'd been thinking.  My son was asking me about this yesterday.

My basic thoughts - Afghanistan was a breeding ground for terrorists when under the control of the Taliban.  That breeding ground generated some of the terrorists that knocked down the twin towers, the London bus bombing, and the train bombing in Madrid.  

Our soldiers being boots on the ground over there helped to prevent one of those attacks from happening in Canada.  The Toronto 18 got close, but in taking the fight to the enemy, we reduced the likelihood of a successful attack happening in our home land. 

In my opinion, what's likely to happen now is a messy civil war, that will, for the next 2-4 years keep that part of the world embroiled in itself.  After that, well, we again face a likely breeding ground that will spawn more of what caused the initial boots to be sent there.

What we do over the next several years to prepare for that impending threat is important.  

How we commemorate those who paid the price to keep the evil away from our homes is important.

How we care for those who came home, but left a part of themselves, or their mind in that place is very important.

I agree, victory doesn't always look like what you think it looks like.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

NavyShooter said:


> That's quite succinct - a better way to express it than what I'd been thinking.  My son was asking me about this yesterday.
> 
> My basic thoughts - Afghanistan was a breeding ground for terrorists when under the control of the Taliban.  That breeding ground generated some of the terrorists that knocked down the twin towers, the London bus bombing, and the train bombing in Madrid.
> 
> Our soldiers being boots on the ground over there helped to prevent one of those attacks from happening in Canada.  The Toronto 18 got close, but in taking the fight to the enemy, we reduced the likelihood of a successful attack happening in our home land.
> 
> In my opinion, what's likely to happen now is a messy civil war, that will, for the next 2-4 years keep that part of the world embroiled in itself.  After that, well, we again face a likely breeding ground that will spawn more of what caused the initial boots to be sent there.
> 
> What we do over the next several years to prepare for that impending threat is important.
> 
> How we commemorate those who paid the price to keep the evil away from our homes is important.
> 
> How we care for those who came home, but left a part of themselves, or their mind in that place is very important.
> 
> I agree, victory doesn't always look like what you think it looks like.


Concur with most of what you've said.  It will depend on if the Taliban renege on their deal with the US Government which, might I add, the current Afghan Government was not privy to or even invited for discussions.

The US agreed with the Taliban to withdraw from Afghanistan on the condition that the Taliban not allow Afghan soil to be used by anyone to threaten the United States. They also had to enter in to negotiations with other Afghan side(s) (there are multiple) to forge an Afghanistan that is at peace with itself.  Those negotiations are ongoing but the Taliban hold most of the cards

The Taliban needed Al Qaeda when they initially swept through Afghanistan in the mid 1990s as the Egyptian and Saudi leadership funneled weapons, funding and fighters to them.  They also provided their best fighters who were all foreigners (055 brigade, etc) and helped the Taliban win many of their victories.  They then outlived their usefulness and became a burden to the Taliban because they gained outsized influence and started attacking others like the United States which brought the GWoT to Afghanistan. This hurt the Taliban significantly.

The Taliban leadership are rational actors, they've made peace with the US for all intents and purposes and are now turning their attention to other issues like how do they actually conquer and govern Afghanistan?  The United States achieves its security  objectives while the Taliban no longer have to contend with their greatest threat.  The United States hasn't suffered a casualty to hostile fire in Afghanistan in over a year and that isn't by coincidence.


----------



## dimsum

NavyShooter said:


> What we do over the next several years to prepare for that impending threat is important.
> 
> How we commemorate those who paid the price to keep the evil away from our homes is important.
> 
> How we care for those who came home, but left a part of themselves, or their mind in that place is very important.


Spot on.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Humphrey Bogart said:


> Concur with most of what you've said.  It will depend on if the Taliban renege on their deal with the US Government which, might I add, the current Afghan Government was not privy to or even invited for discussions.
> 
> The US agreed with the Taliban to withdraw from Afghanistan on the condition that the Taliban not allow Afghan soil to be used by anyone to threaten the United States. They also had to enter in to negotiations with other Afghan side(s) (there are multiple) to forge an Afghanistan that is at peace with itself.  Those negotiations are ongoing but the Taliban hold most of the cards
> 
> The Taliban needed Al Qaeda when they initially swept through Afghanistan in the mid 1990s as the Egyptian and Saudi leadership funneled weapons, funding and fighters to them.  They also provided their best fighters who were all foreigners (055 brigade, etc) and helped the Taliban win many of their victories.  They then outlived their usefulness and became a burden to the Taliban because they gained outsized influence and started attacking others like the United States which brought the GWoT to Afghanistan. This hurt the Taliban significantly.
> 
> The Taliban leadership are rational actors, they've made peace with the US for all intents and purposes and are now turning their attention to other issues like how do they actually conquer and govern Afghanistan?  The United States achieves its security  objectives while the Taliban no longer have to contend with their greatest threat.  The United States hasn't suffered a casualty to hostile fire in Afghanistan in over a year and that isn't by coincidence.


They are not rational actors in the sense that the West sees it. Eventually they go full nutbar first on their own people, then on anyone else. They may currently only have regional aspirations, but the basis of Islam is about expansion and conquest and that is going to bubble to the surface at some point.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Colin Parkinson said:


> They are not rational actors in the sense that the West sees it. Eventually they go full nutbar first on their own people, then on anyone else. They may currently only have regional aspirations, but the basis of Islam is about expansion and conquest and that is going to bubble to the surface at some point.



It's all about reimposing Sharia Law. Let the public stonings commence....

From 2019:
UNDERSTANDING THE ADVERSARY: WHAT THE TALIBAN THINK ABOUT AFGHANISTAN PEACE NEGOTIATIONS​*The Taliban’s Logic for Peace Negotiations*

As with the justification for their “jihad” in Afghanistan based on “sharia,” the Taliban also turned to “sharia” to guide their “negotiations” with the Americans. The group has published a series of fatwa-like commentaries under the title “Afghanistan’s contemporary jihad based on sharia” on its Pashto website. In April last year, they declared:



> In response to the US occupation, defensive jihad is mandatory based on sharia, and if the enemy is keen for peace, then peace must be also based on sharia.


Peace according to “sharia” is further explained in subsequent documents. In June, the Taliban reaffirmed that the goal of their current “jihad” is the “end of occupation” and the introduction of the “rule of sharia in Afghanistan.” According to the group, the goals of any kind of potential peace should be precisely the “same as the goals of ongoing jihad” itself.

In its religious manifesto titled, “The goals of peace with the Americans should be based on sharia,” the Taliban maintain:



> Based on sharia, peace is a moral jihad, if the mentioned goals of jihad [end of occupation and rule of sharia] can be achieved through peace, then there should be peace. And if the goals of muslims are not achieved in peace, then peace is prohibited, and jihad remains obligatory against occupiers.











						Understanding the Adversary: What the Taliban Think About Afghanistan Peace Negotiations
					

Editor’s Note: A version of this article was originally published by The Interpreter, which is published by the Lowy Institute, an independent,



					warontherocks.com


----------



## CBH99

daftandbarmy said:


> It's all about reimposing Sharia Law. Let the public stonings commence....
> 
> From 2019:
> UNDERSTANDING THE ADVERSARY: WHAT THE TALIBAN THINK ABOUT AFGHANISTAN PEACE NEGOTIATIONS​*The Taliban’s Logic for Peace Negotiations*
> 
> As with the justification for their “jihad” in Afghanistan based on “sharia,” the Taliban also turned to “sharia” to guide their “negotiations” with the Americans. The group has published a series of fatwa-like commentaries under the title “Afghanistan’s contemporary jihad based on sharia” on its Pashto website. In April last year, they declared:
> 
> 
> Peace according to “sharia” is further explained in subsequent documents. In June, the Taliban reaffirmed that the goal of their current “jihad” is the “end of occupation” and the introduction of the “rule of sharia in Afghanistan.” According to the group, the goals of any kind of potential peace should be precisely the “same as the goals of ongoing jihad” itself.
> 
> In its religious manifesto titled, “The goals of peace with the Americans should be based on sharia,” the Taliban maintain:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Understanding the Adversary: What the Taliban Think About Afghanistan Peace Negotiations
> 
> 
> Editor’s Note: A version of this article was originally published by The Interpreter, which is published by the Lowy Institute, an independent,
> 
> 
> 
> warontherocks.com


So if I understand the main points of the article correctly, the main points of peace for the Taliban are:

1.  End of occupation
2.  Afghans must live under sharia law.  Period.  Anything else would be deemed unallowable.


So peace, but under tyrants, imposing laws and rules that bring Afghanistan back to where it was before the west 'visited for a decade or two'.  Sounds charming.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Basically anything that furthers fundamental Islam is allowed under fundamental Islam, including lying under oath.


----------



## dimsum

Colin Parkinson said:


> Basically anything that furthers fundamental Islam [insert religion here] is allowed under fundamental Islam [insert religion here], including lying under oath.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Not really, Islam was a religion built around conquest and submission with no other purpose than to impose it on everyone else. Judaism certainly does not, Christianity offers other alternatives, Hindu's do not try to make the world Hindu, nor do Buddhists, Sikhs, etc


----------



## Brad Sallows

> the main points of peace for the Taliban are:



There is only one, "submission".

Over time, there is only one pattern: retreat and offer to negotiate when weak; attack when strong.  Negotiation is just a time-buyer; the terms are meaningless.


----------



## MarkOttawa

And what will our government do for those who worked for Canada?



> Biden directs evacuation flights for Afghan interpreters to begin late July​Officials are declining to say where Afghan nationals will be sent as they await their visas to come to the U.S.
> 
> President Joe Biden has directed evacuation flights for Afghan interpreters and other nationals who helped the U.S. military during the 20-year conflict to begin late July, the White House announced on Wednesday.
> 
> Afghan nationals in the pipeline for special immigrant visas and their families will wait in one or more locations outside of Afghanistan while the State Department finishes processing their paperwork to enter the United States, White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters.
> 
> Psaki declined to provide details about where the Afghans are going or how many applicants are eligible for the relocation flights. However, the administration is looking at using U.S. military bases to temporarily host those eligible, along with a number of other locations, a defense official said.
> 
> The news comes less than a week after Biden announced that the United States would begin relocation flights for the thousands of Afghans this month, as the U.S. military approaches the end of the Afghanistan drawdown. U.S. Central Command said this week that the withdrawal is 95 percent complete...
> 
> In a sign that Afghans might be sent to Central Asia, Ambassador Tracey Jacobson, a three-time chief of mission in Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Kosovo, is leading the State Department unit responsible for the effort, dubbed "Operation Allies Refuge."
> 
> The group also includes representatives from the Departments of Defense and Homeland Security. Russ Travers, the deputy homeland security adviser and former head of the National Counterterrorism Center, is coordinating the effort across agencies.
> 
> A U.S. delegation will travel to Uzbekistan this week to meet with leaders across central Asia, the White House announced earlier on Wednesday. Zalmay Khalilzad, the U.S. special representative for Afghanistan reconciliation, will be among the delegation.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Biden directs evacuation flights for Afghan interpreters to begin late July
> 
> 
> Officials are declining to say where Afghan nationals will be sent as they await their visas to come to the U.S.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.politico.com



As for Canada:



> Former Afghan drivers who worked for Canada say their lives are in danger from Taliban reprisals​...
> Alexander Cohen, a spokesperson for Immigration Minister Marco Mendicino, said for security reasons “we do not comment on specific operational matters of our missions abroad.”
> 
> “We are currently working to assist some individuals previously or currently employed by the Canadian government in Afghanistan, who wish to come here,” he said...
> 
> Mr. Cohen said last week that more than 800 Afghan nationals, including family members, were resettled to Canada under two previous policies. Afghans who were not eligible under the policies, he said, may apply to immigrate to Canada through existing provisions under the Immigration and Refugee Protection Act.
> 
> A government source told The Globe and Mail last week that Ottawa is quickly working through individual cases to move them through the immigration and refugee system. The Globe is not identifying the official because they were not authorized to speak publicly about the issue.
> 
> The official said 40 Afghans, most of whom were interpreters, while some served in other roles, have indicated that they want to come to Canada, in addition to Afghan staff who work at the Canadian embassy. The official said the government is expecting more...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Former Afghan drivers who worked for Canada say their lives are in danger from Taliban reprisals
> 
> 
> Abdul Qayum Hemat says he has been writing to the embassy, urging Ottawa to bring the group of drivers and their families to Canada
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theglobeandmail.com



Time may well be running out, Ottawa.

Mark
Ottawa


----------



## CBH99

MarkOttawa said:


> And what will our government do for those who worked for Canada?
> 
> 
> 
> As for Canada:
> 
> 
> 
> Time may well be running out, Ottawa.
> 
> Mark
> Ottawa


The fact that we pulled out a decade ago from the combat mission in Kandahar, and it still isn't done, is mind boggling.  I know this doesn't rest purely on our current PM's watch - but the current situation is unfolding while he is in power.

Identify who qualifies.  Find them.  Extract them.  They can sort out the paperwork later.  (Heaven forbid we do things out of order, even when it comes to saving the lives of people who risked themselves & their families to assist us.)   

Just get it done Ottawa.


----------



## dimsum

CBH99 said:


> Heaven forbid we do things out of order, even when it comes to saving the lives of people who risked themselves & their families to assist us.


Have you never dealt with government before?  

They need a pre-brief for the DM, for the brief, then the pre-brief for the Minister, then the brief...


----------



## OldSolduer

CBH99 said:


> The fact that we pulled out a decade ago from the combat mission in Kandahar, and it still isn't done, is mind boggling.  I know this doesn't rest purely on our current PM's watch - but the current situation is unfolding while he is in power.
> 
> Identify who qualifies.  Find them.  Extract them.  They can sort out the paperwork later.  (Heaven forbid we do things out of order, even when it comes to saving the lives of people who risked themselves & their families to assist us.)
> 
> Just get it done Ottawa.


The PM couldn't care less - he'll blame Harper and the Conservatives. 

But when we see the reports of the slaughter of former interpreters he will cry and snivel like he usually does. He's an actor by trade, remember that.


----------



## dangerboy

Here is what Global Affairs is saying Canada to aid Afghanistan after U.S. troop withdrawal next month, minister says



> Global Affairs Canada spokesman Grantly Franklin said Ottawa calls for a permanent and comprehensive ceasefire to end the interminable suffering of the Afghan people and facilitate provision of humanitarian assistance.
> 
> "Canada's engagement in Afghanistan prioritizes peace, democracy and human rights," he said in a statement.
> 
> According to government data, about 40,000 Canadians served in Afghanistan from 2001 to 2014, with Canada providing a total of $3.6 billion in aid to the country since 2001.
> 
> Canada's efforts in Afghanistan have contributed to a real improvement in the lives of the most vulnerable, Franklin said. "Women and children in particular have better access to education, health and human rights, and Canada will do its utmost to preserve these gains."



Personally, I don't see how we can possibly do what he says without troops on the ground.


----------



## Brad Sallows

Urge them to apply as Syrian refugees.


----------



## Good2Golf

dangerboy said:


> Here is what Global Affairs is saying Canada to aid Afghanistan after U.S. troop withdrawal next month, minister says
> 
> 
> 
> Personally, I don't see how we can possibly do what he says without troops on the ground.


That was one of the most vacuous statements I’ve ever heard out of our government.

This is another one from the same article, from the Minister of International Development, Karina Gould…


> Gould said in an interview that Canada is constantly monitoring and evaluating the situation through dialogue with its partners including non-governmental organizations and United Nations agencies.
> 
> "At this point in time, our partners continue to work and deliver services for the Afghan people."



WTH does that mean?!?  

Partners?  Taliban-resilient partners?


----------



## OldSolduer

Good2Golf said:


> That was one of the most vacuous statements I’ve ever heard out of our government.
> 
> This is another one from the same article, from the Minister of International Development, Karina Gould…
> 
> 
> WTH does that mean?!?
> 
> Partners?  Taliban-resilient partners?


I'll tell you what it is - that statement is a load of horseshit pure and simple. 

The current crop of Liberals are intellectual light weights - I'd say half wits but that would be insulting true half wits - who have zero grasp on international affairs, or being a good partner in anything.


----------



## Jarnhamar

Ottawa will continue sending humanitarian and development assistance to Afghanistan
50 per cent of Afghans rely on such help for basic necessities.
he Taliban claimed it now controls 85 per cent of Afghanistan's territory
In November, *Canada pledged $270 million in additional development assistance through 2024.*

We're basically paying the Taliban.
Nice.


----------



## Furniture

Jarnhamar said:


> Ottawa will continue sending humanitarian and development assistance to Afghanistan
> 50 per cent of Afghans rely on such help for basic necessities.
> he Taliban claimed it now controls 85 per cent of Afghanistan's territory
> In November, *Canada pledged $270 million in additional development assistance through 2024.*
> 
> We're basically paying the Taliban.
> Nice.


To be fair, we were paying the Taliban when we were actively fighting them too...


----------



## Brad Sallows

Whatever passes for our nomenklatura attaches a great deal of importance to style and appearances.  Substance, less so.  So we get a lot of well-sounding horserubbish.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Furniture said:


> To be fair, we were paying the Taliban when we were actively fighting them too...



The British excelled at that. All the terrorists in Northern Ireland were on the Dole


----------



## Altair

BBC News - Afghanistan: Taliban offers ceasefire for return of prisoners Afghanistan: Taliban offers ceasefire for return of prisoners

3 month ceasefire in return for 7000 prisoners released.

Who would bet that 

A) It doesn't last 3 months

B)The taliban forces grow by 7000 fighters overnight 

C) The ANA doesn't grow by nearly 7000 men willing to fight


----------



## dimsum

Altair said:


> Who would bet that
> 
> A) It doesn't last 3 months days


----------



## Jarnhamar

Furniture said:


> To be fair, we were paying the Taliban when we were actively fighting them too...


But at least we got some honest work out of them during their day shift.


----------



## blacktriangle

I wonder if WE charity or another LPC-friendly entity gets a taste before the money ends up in Taliban hands. A little off the top never hurt anyone, right?


----------



## Good2Golf

blacktriangle said:


> I wonder if WE charity or another LPC-friendly entity gets a taste before the money ends up in Taliban hands. A little off the top never hurt anyone, right?


Send WE Charity into AFG to distribute our $270M….


----------



## blacktriangle

Good2Golf said:


> Send WE Charity into AFG to distribute our $270M….


Sure, as long as they are jump qualified.


----------



## Good2Golf

blacktriangle said:


> Sure, as long as they are jump qualified.


Well….they only have to jump once….


----------



## blacktriangle

Good2Golf said:


> Well….they only have to jump once….


If you fly, I'll push!


----------



## Jarnhamar

* Afghanistan: Taliban beheaded Afghan interpreter for US military. Others fear they will be hunted down* 





__





						Afghanistan: Taliban beheaded Afghan interpreter for US military. Others fear they will be hunted down
					





					www.msn.com
				





At least Canada is taking the threat to our former partners and employees seriously.


----------



## Good2Golf

Jarnhamar said:


> * Afghanistan: Taliban beheaded Afghan interpreter for US military. Others fear they will be hunted down*
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> __
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Afghanistan: Taliban beheaded Afghan interpreter for US military. Others fear they will be hunted down
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.msn.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> At least private Canadaians is are taking the threat to our former partners and employees seriously.


There…the Government is still waiting for the survey results to see if it thinks that Canadians care enough for them to actually do something…otherwise, back to prepping for the election.


----------



## OldSolduer

Good2Golf said:


> There…the Government is still waiting for the survey results to see if it thinks that Canadians care enough for them to actually do something…otherwise, back to prepping for the election.


As I have said before the current GoC cares only about one thing  - the re election of the LPC. I have never seen such a travesty of government in this country than this one.


----------



## brihard

Canada offers ‘path to protection’ for Afghan interpreters amid ‘critical’ situation - National | Globalnews.ca
					

A rapid Taliban resurgence in the country is raising fears the interpreters and advisers are facing imminent retaliation, and pressure is growing for the government to act.




					globalnews.ca
				




Announced today.


----------



## daftandbarmy

OldSolduer said:


> As I have said before the current *every *GoC cares only about one thing  - the re election of *their party* the LPC. I have never seen such a travesty of government in this country than this one.



There, FTFY


----------



## Jarnhamar

brihard said:


> Canada offers ‘path to protection’ for Afghan interpreters amid ‘critical’ situation - National | Globalnews.ca
> 
> 
> A rapid Taliban resurgence in the country is raising fears the interpreters and advisers are facing imminent retaliation, and pressure is growing for the government to act.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> globalnews.ca
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Announced today.


That's awesome. 

I'm guessing the government read my post and decided they should do something.

That or they took a peek at the long form census from Statistics Canada that we all had to fill out and did some comparing against political ridings and decided it was a vote-worthy move. 

Either way really glad to read this.


----------



## OldSolduer

Jarnhamar said:


> That's awesome.
> 
> I'm guessing the government read my post and decided they should do something.
> 
> That or they took a peek at the long form census from Statistics Canada that we all had to fill out and did some comparing against political ridings and decided it was a vote-worthy move.
> 
> Either way really glad to read this.


There’s an election on the horizon. Cynical I know


----------



## dangerboy

I just hope it is not too late for us to take action. I am sure it is for several.


----------



## daftandbarmy

It ain't over till it's over....


*As the Taliban advances, Afghan military overhauls its war strategy*

Reeling from a surge in battlefield losses, Afghanistan's military is overhauling its war strategy against the _Taliban_ to concentrate forces around the most critical areas like Kabul and other cities, border crossings and vital infrastructure, so both _Afghan_ and US officials say. The politically perilous strategy will inevitably cede territory to _Taliban_ insurgents, but officials say it appears to be a military necessity as over-stretched _Afghan_ troops try to prevent the loss of provincial capitals, which could deeply fracture the country. The consolidation of forces, which has been publicly acknowledged but not reported in such detail before, coincides with the US military withdrawal ahead of a formal end to the military mission on the 31st August, on orders from President Joe Biden.

_Taliban_ insurgents are gaining control of more and more territory, which the _Pentagon_ estimated on Wednesday the 21st July now extends to over half of half Afghanistan's _District Centres_. The _Taliban_ also are putting pressure on the outskirts of half of the provincial capitals, trying to isolate them. US intelligence assessments have warned that the Afghan government could fall in as little as six months, so US officials told *Reuters.*

One Afghan official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the "re-orientation" of troops would help Kabul hold strategic territory, and defend infrastructure, including a dam built with India's assistance, and major highways. However, consolidating troops also means leaving other areas unguarded ,which is a `_hard sell’_ to Afghan communities or ethnic groups who will feel they are being abandoned to the _Taliban_. "How do you communicate this to a public that has been jittery, and understandably so over the past few weeks in which the _Taliban_ have been taking over districts?" the Afghan official. "Because a major part of this re-orientation would entail, at least in the short term, the _Taliban_ filling in the vacuum that we are leaving behind." The US Army General, Mark Milley, the _Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff_, said the strategy would involve "giving up _District Centres_" to protect larger population centres, like the capital Kabul. He said the _Taliban _appeared to have "strategic momentum." "There is a possibility of a complete _Taliban_ takeover or a possibility of any number of other scenarios," Milley told a news conference on Wednesday, adding: "I do not think that the endgame is yet written."

_US Marine General_, Kenneth McKenzie, _Commander of US Central Command_, which oversees US Forces in Afghanistan and support to _Afghan_ troops, said after being briefed on the plan this month the _Afghans_ knew that they had to pick their battles. "You can't defend everything. If you defend everywhere, you defend nowhere. So I think the _Afghans_ realise they need to consolidate," McKenzie said, without offering details.

He noted years-old US concerns about how _Afghan_ forces were manning checkpoints, including in remote or hostile areas that are particularly vulnerable or serve little strategic value. "So, I think now they are now in the process of recognising that sometimes you have got to pull back, you have got to consolidate, you have got to defend those areas that are absolutely critical," McKenzie said. The _Afghan Ministry of Defence_ did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The _Taliban's_ swift territorial gains are rattling _Afghans_ just as the United States withdraws from a war that succeeded in punishing _al Qaeda_ following its 11th September 2001 attacks on New York and Washington but failed to deliver anything close to peace for Afghanistan. Biden has promised to provide financial assistance to _Afghan forces_ and to redouble diplomatic efforts to revive stalled peace talks; but the _Taliban_ have not responded to calls from 15 diplomatic missions and the _NATO_ _Representative in Afghanistan_ on Monday the 19th July to halt their military offensives. The insurgents and the _Afghan _government also failed to agree on a ceasefire at talks in Doha for this week's _Eid_ holidays. In the past, the _Taliban_ have called short cease-fires for _Eid_, saying they wanted to let _Afghans_ spend them in peace. US military officials believe the _Taliban_ are seeking to end the war with a battlefield victory, instead of at the negotiating table.

*`Not sustainable’*

For years, the US military has been trying to get _Afghan troops_ off of far-flung checkpoints, those static positions that can easily be over-run by _Taliban _forces. "Maintaining this spread out, every district is sacred mindset, is simply only going to lead to more losses," said Jason Campbell, a former _Pentagon_ official now at _RAND Corporation_. "It's just not sustainable."

The troop reorganisation will require, in some cases, building new fortifications and creating new combinations of forces, the _Afghan_ official said, but it will also demand that _Afghans_ must shift their thinking about how much they can do to respond to _Taliban _attacks and skirmishes, as their _Air Force_ gets stretched, and US support wanes. Equally tricky for Kabul is explaining battlefield strategy in a way that does not offend any of Afghanistan's ethnic groups, which include _Pashtuns, Tajiks, Hazaras _and_ Uzbeks _because not all areas will receive the same level of protection. More than a quarter-million _Afghans_ have been forced from their homes this year, according to the _United Nations_.









						Exclusive: As Taliban advances, Afghan military overhauls war strategy
					

Reeling from a surge in battlefield losses, Afghanistan's military is overhauling its war strategy against the Taliban to concentrate forces around the most critical areas like Kabul and other cities, border crossings and vital infrastructure, Afghan and U.S. officials say.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## medic5

daftandbarmy said:


> It ain't over till it's over....
> 
> 
> *As the Taliban advances, Afghan military overhauls its war strategy*
> 
> Reeling from a surge in battlefield losses, Afghanistan's military is overhauling its war strategy against the _Taliban_ to concentrate forces around the most critical areas like Kabul and other cities, border crossings and vital infrastructure, so both _Afghan_ and US officials say. The politically perilous strategy will inevitably cede territory to _Taliban_ insurgents, but officials say it appears to be a military necessity as over-stretched _Afghan_ troops try to prevent the loss of provincial capitals, which could deeply fracture the country. The consolidation of forces, which has been publicly acknowledged but not reported in such detail before, coincides with the US military withdrawal ahead of a formal end to the military mission on the 31st August, on orders from President Joe Biden.
> 
> _Taliban_ insurgents are gaining control of more and more territory, which the _Pentagon_ estimated on Wednesday the 21st July now extends to over half of half Afghanistan's _District Centres_. The _Taliban_ also are putting pressure on the outskirts of half of the provincial capitals, trying to isolate them. US intelligence assessments have warned that the Afghan government could fall in as little as six months, so US officials told *Reuters.*
> 
> One Afghan official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the "re-orientation" of troops would help Kabul hold strategic territory, and defend infrastructure, including a dam built with India's assistance, and major highways. However, consolidating troops also means leaving other areas unguarded ,which is a `_hard sell’_ to Afghan communities or ethnic groups who will feel they are being abandoned to the _Taliban_. "How do you communicate this to a public that has been jittery, and understandably so over the past few weeks in which the _Taliban_ have been taking over districts?" the Afghan official. "Because a major part of this re-orientation would entail, at least in the short term, the _Taliban_ filling in the vacuum that we are leaving behind." The US Army General, Mark Milley, the _Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff_, said the strategy would involve "giving up _District Centres_" to protect larger population centres, like the capital Kabul. He said the _Taliban _appeared to have "strategic momentum." "There is a possibility of a complete _Taliban_ takeover or a possibility of any number of other scenarios," Milley told a news conference on Wednesday, adding: "I do not think that the endgame is yet written."
> 
> _US Marine General_, Kenneth McKenzie, _Commander of US Central Command_, which oversees US Forces in Afghanistan and support to _Afghan_ troops, said after being briefed on the plan this month the _Afghans_ knew that they had to pick their battles. "You can't defend everything. If you defend everywhere, you defend nowhere. So I think the _Afghans_ realise they need to consolidate," McKenzie said, without offering details.
> 
> He noted years-old US concerns about how _Afghan_ forces were manning checkpoints, including in remote or hostile areas that are particularly vulnerable or serve little strategic value. "So, I think now they are now in the process of recognising that sometimes you have got to pull back, you have got to consolidate, you have got to defend those areas that are absolutely critical," McKenzie said. The _Afghan Ministry of Defence_ did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
> 
> The _Taliban's_ swift territorial gains are rattling _Afghans_ just as the United States withdraws from a war that succeeded in punishing _al Qaeda_ following its 11th September 2001 attacks on New York and Washington but failed to deliver anything close to peace for Afghanistan. Biden has promised to provide financial assistance to _Afghan forces_ and to redouble diplomatic efforts to revive stalled peace talks; but the _Taliban_ have not responded to calls from 15 diplomatic missions and the _NATO_ _Representative in Afghanistan_ on Monday the 19th July to halt their military offensives. The insurgents and the _Afghan _government also failed to agree on a ceasefire at talks in Doha for this week's _Eid_ holidays. In the past, the _Taliban_ have called short cease-fires for _Eid_, saying they wanted to let _Afghans_ spend them in peace. US military officials believe the _Taliban_ are seeking to end the war with a battlefield victory, instead of at the negotiating table.
> 
> *`Not sustainable’*
> 
> For years, the US military has been trying to get _Afghan troops_ off of far-flung checkpoints, those static positions that can easily be over-run by _Taliban _forces. "Maintaining this spread out, every district is sacred mindset, is simply only going to lead to more losses," said Jason Campbell, a former _Pentagon_ official now at _RAND Corporation_. "It's just not sustainable."
> 
> The troop reorganisation will require, in some cases, building new fortifications and creating new combinations of forces, the _Afghan_ official said, but it will also demand that _Afghans_ must shift their thinking about how much they can do to respond to _Taliban _attacks and skirmishes, as their _Air Force_ gets stretched, and US support wanes. Equally tricky for Kabul is explaining battlefield strategy in a way that does not offend any of Afghanistan's ethnic groups, which include _Pashtuns, Tajiks, Hazaras _and_ Uzbeks _because not all areas will receive the same level of protection. More than a quarter-million _Afghans_ have been forced from their homes this year, according to the _United Nations_.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Exclusive: As Taliban advances, Afghan military overhauls war strategy
> 
> 
> Reeling from a surge in battlefield losses, Afghanistan's military is overhauling its war strategy against the Taliban to concentrate forces around the most critical areas like Kabul and other cities, border crossings and vital infrastructure, Afghan and U.S. officials say.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com


This sounds a lot like Nationalist strategy in the Chinese Civil War to me. Give up the rural areas to the enemy, hold onto cities and other strategic locations to maintain "power". I'm guessing the result will be the same, the Taliban swiftly occupies uncontested areas, before slowly taking over cities and gaining more power. 

Is there any medium-sized island nearby?


----------



## Jarnhamar

At one tipping point, probably quite soon, the Afghan army will simply cease to exist and the Taliban will get complete access to all the 21st-century military hardware and technology we supplied the ANA with. Along with a bunch of new recruits with previous military experience.


----------



## Altair

medic5 said:


> This sounds a lot like Nationalist strategy in the Chinese Civil War to me. Give up the rural areas to the enemy, hold onto cities and other strategic locations to maintain "power". I'm guessing the result will be the same, the Taliban swiftly occupies uncontested areas, before slowly taking over cities and gaining more power.
> 
> Is there any medium-sized island nearby?


Or the south Vietnamese withdrawal from the highlands following the loss of Buon Ma Thuot, a retreat that turned into a rout.

I'm pretty sure this is all over but the crying and the fat lady is warming up her vocal cords.


----------



## medic5

Jarnhamar said:


> At one tipping point, probably quite soon, the Afghan army will simply cease to exist and the Taliban will get complete access to all the 21st-century military hardware and technology we supplied the ANA with. Along with a bunch of new recruits with previous military experience.


The good news is that modern military equipment requires lots of spare parts and skilled personnel to maintain, eg F-14 Tomcats after the Iranian Revolution.

The bad news is that the Taliban really doesn't need anything other than small arms and pickup trucks, which they now have plenty of.


----------



## Jarnhamar

How Did Taliban Fighters Get Their Hands On US Special Operations Gear?​








						How Did Taliban Fighters Get Their Hands On US Special Operations Gear?
					

Taliban fighters are packing new American-made heat — at least, according to their propaganda videos. A recently released 70-minute video of Afghanistan




					taskandpurpose.com
				







SCAR-H in .308
Elcan SPectreDR 1.5x/6x (with a price tag of $2900 alone)
PEQ 5 (compared to the giant 20+ year old monstrosities we're still using)
Harris bipod.


​


----------



## SeaKingTacco

Jarnhamar said:


> At one tipping point, probably quite soon, the Afghan army will simply cease to exist and the Taliban will get complete access to all the 21st-century military hardware and technology we supplied the ANA with. Along with a bunch of new recruits with previous military experience.


I would imagine any high tech stuff they capture will just end up in China.


----------



## Good2Golf

SeaKingTacco said:


> I would imagine any high tech stuff they capture will just end up in China.


Why?

To confirm what likely has already been acquired by the Chinese through physical and digital espionage? 😉


----------



## SeaKingTacco

Good2Golf said:


> Why?
> 
> To confirm what likely has already been acquired by the Chinese through physical and digital espionage? 😉


Pretty much, yes.


----------



## suffolkowner

Is there much there other than a bunch of Humvees, M1117's, and MRAPS?


----------



## daftandbarmy

Jarnhamar said:


> How Did Taliban Fighters Get Their Hands On US Special Operations Gear?​
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> How Did Taliban Fighters Get Their Hands On US Special Operations Gear?
> 
> 
> Taliban fighters are packing new American-made heat — at least, according to their propaganda videos. A recently released 70-minute video of Afghanistan
> 
> 
> 
> 
> taskandpurpose.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 65860
> 
> 
> SCAR-H in .308
> Elcan SPectreDR 1.5x/6x (with a price tag of $2900 alone)
> PEQ 5 (compared to the giant 20+ year old monstrosities we're still using)
> Harris bipod.
> 
> 
> ​



It would seem that the 'arithmetic' was always on their side:


Arithmetic on the Frontier
A GREAT and glorious thing it is
To learn, for seven years or so,
The Lord knows what of that and this,
Ere reckoned fit to face the foe -
The flying bullet down the Pass,
That whistles clear: "All flesh is grass."

Three hundred pounds per annum spent
On making brain and body meeter
For all the murderous intent
Comprised in "villainous saltpetre".
And after?- Ask the Yusufzaies
What comes of all our 'ologies.

A scrimmage in a Border Station-
A canter down some dark defile
Two thousand pounds of education
Drops to a ten-rupee _jezail_.
The Crammer's boast, the Squadron's pride,
Shot like a rabbit in a ride!

No proposition Euclid wrote
No formulae the text-books know,
Will turn the bullet from your coat,
Or ward the tulwar's downward blow.
Strike hard who cares - shoot straight who can
The odds are on the cheaper man.

One sword-knot stolen from the camp
Will pay for all the school expenses
Of any Kurrum Valley scamp
Who knows no word of moods and tenses,
But, being blessed with perfect sight,
Picks off our messmates left and right.

With home-bred hordes the hillsides teem.
The troopships bring us one by oe,
At vast expense of time and steam,
To slay Afridis where they run.
The "captives of our bow and spear"
Are cheap, alas! as we are dear.

- Rudyard Kipling


----------



## SeaKingTacco

daftandbarmy said:


> It would seem that the 'arithmetic' was always on their side:
> 
> 
> Arithmetic on the Frontier
> A GREAT and glorious thing it is
> To learn, for seven years or so,
> The Lord knows what of that and this,
> Ere reckoned fit to face the foe -
> The flying bullet down the Pass,
> That whistles clear: "All flesh is grass."
> 
> Three hundred pounds per annum spent
> On making brain and body meeter
> For all the murderous intent
> Comprised in "villainous saltpetre".
> And after?- Ask the Yusufzaies
> What comes of all our 'ologies.
> 
> A scrimmage in a Border Station-
> A canter down some dark defile
> Two thousand pounds of education
> Drops to a ten-rupee _jezail_.
> The Crammer's boast, the Squadron's pride,
> Shot like a rabbit in a ride!
> 
> No proposition Euclid wrote
> No formulae the text-books know,
> Will turn the bullet from your coat,
> Or ward the tulwar's downward blow.
> Strike hard who cares - shoot straight who can
> The odds are on the cheaper man.
> 
> One sword-knot stolen from the camp
> Will pay for all the school expenses
> Of any Kurrum Valley scamp
> Who knows no word of moods and tenses,
> But, being blessed with perfect sight,
> Picks off our messmates left and right.
> 
> With home-bred hordes the hillsides teem.
> The troopships bring us one by oe,
> At vast expense of time and steam,
> To slay Afridis where they run.
> The "captives of our bow and spear"
> Are cheap, alas! as we are dear.
> 
> - Rudyard Kipling


It is almost like Kipling had a crystal ball…


----------



## daftandbarmy

SeaKingTacco said:


> It is almost like Kipling had a crystal ball…



I'm pretty sure Alexander the Great could have written something similar.


----------



## OldSolduer

Jarnhamar said:


> How Did Taliban Fighters Get Their Hands On US Special Operations Gear?​
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> How Did Taliban Fighters Get Their Hands On US Special Operations Gear?
> 
> 
> Taliban fighters are packing new American-made heat — at least, according to their propaganda videos. A recently released 70-minute video of Afghanistan
> 
> 
> 
> 
> taskandpurpose.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 65860
> 
> 
> SCAR-H in .308
> Elcan SPectreDR 1.5x/6x (with a price tag of $2900 alone)
> PEQ 5 (compared to the giant 20+ year old monstrosities we're still using)
> Harris bipod.
> 
> 
> ​


The underground market. There is always someone willing to sell if the price is right


----------



## Fishbone Jones

medic5 said:


> The good news is that modern military equipment requires lots of spare parts and skilled personnel to maintain, eg F-14 Tomcats after the Iranian Revolution.
> 
> The bad news is that the Taliban really doesn't need anything other than small arms and pickup trucks, which they now have plenty of.


You're talking about people, that sit cross legged in the dirt, with a file, a hammer and a pile of scrap metal. Within a couple of days, they'll  hand you an AK-47. Maybe not so good with modern electronics and such, but if it's  mechanical, they can make it or fix it.


----------



## Fishbone Jones

Good2Golf said:


> There…the Government is still waiting for the survey results to see if it thinks that Canadians care enough for them to actually do something…otherwise, back to prepping for the election.


The trudeau liberals have given them 72 hours to apply online, in English to get in line for a possible, maybe, might work, we shake the trees and see what falls out kinda rescue attempt. The whole government initiative for this is unnecessary, unfair, uncaring and unadulterated  bullshit. It's too bad we don't apply the same criteria, to trudeau's illegal aliens sauntering across the Roxham Road crossing. Or apply the Roxham rules to the Afghans. Like Biden on Cuba. Open Borders for all. Except if your coming from Cuba, because they recognise communism, will fight against it and will likely vote conservative. So no, you can't  come in. Open Borders for me, but not for thee.


----------



## CBH99

Jarnhamar said:


> How Did Taliban Fighters Get Their Hands On US Special Operations Gear?​
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> How Did Taliban Fighters Get Their Hands On US Special Operations Gear?
> 
> 
> Taliban fighters are packing new American-made heat — at least, according to their propaganda videos. A recently released 70-minute video of Afghanistan
> 
> 
> 
> 
> taskandpurpose.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 65860
> 
> 
> SCAR-H in .308
> Elcan SPectreDR 1.5x/6x (with a price tag of $2900 alone)
> PEQ 5 (compared to the giant 20+ year old monstrosities we're still using)
> Harris bipod.
> 
> 
> ​


In a few media releases I watched when the resurgence really started to gain momentum, the reporters & camera crews were granted access to newly acquired Taliban positions.  Several of these positions were former ANA bases - some were abandoned after a brief yet decent firefight, and others were abandoned when the Taliban arrived.  (According to them, anyway.)

At most of these locations, there were several large shipping containers FULL of brand new weaponry, intended for use by the ANA.  Hundreds of rifles, RPG's, grenades, bipod-equipped machine guns, body armour, etc etc - and plenty of ammo for each.  It wouldn't surprise me if the Taliban acquired the SCAR-H and other fancy kit from one of those shipping containers that conveniently happened to be there.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Turkey appears to want to keep their own blood from being spilt. We see how well this works out 



_According to the Euphrates Media Center, a Syrian Kurdish news outlet, members of Turkey’s National Intelligence Organization discussed the issue June 24 with representatives of several rebel factions under the banner of the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army, including Suqour al-Sham, Suqour al-Shamal, Faylaq al-Majd, the Samarkand Brigade, the Hamza Division, the Sultan Murad Division and the Suleiman Shah Brigade. The factions were told to start preparations for the deployment of 2,000 fighters to Afghanistan, the report said, adding that the rebel representatives asked for monthly salaries of $3,000 for the mercenaries. Other Syrian Kurdish media outlets reported the meeting took place in Hawar Kilis, a village near the town of Azez, not far from the Turkish border, and the intelligence officials asked for 2,600 mercenaries._

Read more: Will Turkey use Syrian mercenaries in Kabul?


----------



## Maxman1

OldSolduer said:


> The underground market. There is always someone willing to sell if the price is right



Until his superiors find out.


> 106. I may not trade my rifle for any of the following: Cigarettes, booze, sexual favors, Kalishnikovs, Soviet Armored vehicles, small children, or bootleg CDs.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Pakistan barely controls the NWF, the Taliban could possibly grow into a threat to them as well.









						Pakistan’s Pashtun Problem
					

by Sushant Sareen. During a visit to Pakistan a few months after the Lal Masjid episode and emergence of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in 2007, I asked a question from all my interlocutors (serving ministers, retired generals, politicians, analysts): out of Kashmir and Frontier (as Khyber...




					chanakyaforum.com
				




_While Afghanistan and Pakistan have always had strains in their bilateral relationship, Pashtun nationalism and the Pashtunistan movement became a big thing in the early 1970s. The rump Pakistan was still coming to terms with the separation of its eastern wing, when Pashtun nationalist movement started gaining strength. Around the same time, Baloch nationalists managed to form a government in Balochistan. It was at that stage that the Pakistanis started flirting with Islamists in Afghanistan. Islamism was seen as an antidote or an effective ideology to counter ethnic nationalism._


----------



## OldSolduer

Colin Parkinson said:


> Pakistan barely controls the NWF, the Taliban could possibly grow into a threat to them as well.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Pakistan’s Pashtun Problem
> 
> 
> by Sushant Sareen. During a visit to Pakistan a few months after the Lal Masjid episode and emergence of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in 2007, I asked a question from all my interlocutors (serving ministers, retired generals, politicians, analysts): out of Kashmir and Frontier (as Khyber...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> chanakyaforum.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> _While Afghanistan and Pakistan have always had strains in their bilateral relationship, Pashtun nationalism and the Pashtunistan movement became a big thing in the early 1970s. The rump Pakistan was still coming to terms with the separation of its eastern wing, when Pashtun nationalist movement started gaining strength. Around the same time, Baloch nationalists managed to form a government in Balochistan. It was at that stage that the Pakistanis started flirting with Islamists in Afghanistan. Islamism was seen as an antidote or an effective ideology to counter ethnic nationalism._


From what I've read in various publications Pakistan doesn't control it at all. It tolerates the bandit country. IIRXC the Haqqani clan controls the border area.


----------



## CBH99

Colin Parkinson said:


> Turkey appears to want to keep their own blood from being spilt. We see how well this works out
> 
> 
> 
> _According to the Euphrates Media Center, a Syrian Kurdish news outlet, members of Turkey’s National Intelligence Organization discussed the issue June 24 with representatives of several rebel factions under the banner of the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army, including Suqour al-Sham, Suqour al-Shamal, Faylaq al-Majd, the Samarkand Brigade, the Hamza Division, the Sultan Murad Division and the Suleiman Shah Brigade. The factions were told to start preparations for the deployment of 2,000 fighters to Afghanistan, the report said, adding that the rebel representatives asked for monthly salaries of $3,000 for the mercenaries. Other Syrian Kurdish media outlets reported the meeting took place in Hawar Kilis, a village near the town of Azez, not far from the Turkish border, and the intelligence officials asked for 2,600 mercenaries._
> 
> Read more: Will Turkey use Syrian mercenaries in Kabul?


I’m no longer a fan of Turkey for obvious reasons, despite having quite enjoyed my trips there in the past.  (Prior to the changes over the last few years)

In Syria, Turkey conducted its operations via proxy.  Aka rebel groups it paid & could mostly control.   And now they are doing the same.


For one of the largest militaries in NATO, they seem to leave most of their fighting up to whatever clan of ‘rebels’ is convenient and available at the time.


----------



## Altair

I'm losing count, has the Afghan government lost 4 provincial capitals in the past week?


----------



## CBH99

Altair said:


> I'm losing count, has the Afghan government lost 4 provincial capitals in the past week?


I thought as of today it’s ONLY been 3…??


----------



## Altair

CBH99 said:


> I thought as of today it’s ONLY been 3…??


Zaranj,Kunduz, Sheberghan,Taleqan?


----------



## CBH99

Altair said:


> Zaranj,Kunduz, Sheberghan,Taleqan?


Well damn…


----------



## daftandbarmy

CBH99 said:


> I’m no longer a fan of Turkey for obvious reasons, despite having quite enjoyed my trips there in the past.  (Prior to the changes over the last few years)
> 
> In Syria, Turkey conducted its operations via proxy.  Aka rebel groups it paid & could mostly control.   And now they are doing the same.
> 
> 
> *For one of the largest militaries in NATO, they seem to leave most of their fighting up to whatever clan of ‘rebels’ is convenient and available at the time.*



Which is a strategy we should have adopted ages ago in AFG, IMHO, but we don't really 'get' it of course.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

daftandbarmy said:


> Which is a strategy we should have adopted ages ago in AFG, IMHO, but we don't really 'get' it of course.


The French have been using this strategy for years in their former colonies.  Sprinkle in a handful of elite Infantry units and special forces for when you need it and you've got an effective force for protecting your interests.


----------



## Altair

CBH99 said:


> Well damn…


Looking at the map, I don't see how the federal government can hold anything but Kabul.

And if the Taliban has everything but Kabul, then Kabul is also surely doomed.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Humphrey Bogart said:


> The French have been using this strategy for years in their former colonies.  Sprinkle in a handful of elite Infantry units and special forces for when you need it and you've got an effective force for protecting your interests.


 There’s a reason they have the French Forsign Legion.


----------



## Altair

Pul-e-Khumri, capital of the northern province of Baghlan, has fallen.









						Biden says Afghan leaders must 'fight for their nation' as Taliban gains
					

Taliban insurgents tightened their grip on captured Afghan territory on Tuesday, now controlling 65% of the country, as U.S. President Joe Biden urged the nation's leaders to fight for their homeland.




					www.reuters.com
				




According to reuters, that makes 7 in the past week.


----------



## CBH99

Altair said:


> Pul-e-Khumri, capital of the northern province of Baghlan, has fallen.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Biden says Afghan leaders must 'fight for their nation' as Taliban gains
> 
> 
> Taliban insurgents tightened their grip on captured Afghan territory on Tuesday, now controlling 65% of the country, as U.S. President Joe Biden urged the nation's leaders to fight for their homeland.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> According to reuters, that makes 7 in the past week.


I know this will sound crass to many - I do not mean to sound immature, nor do I intend to offend any of my friends on this board.  (Which I - as cheesy as it sounds - think of most of you as friends.)

But gosh I wish the solution was as simple as:


Go identify who genuine bad guys are
Kill them
Eliminate their ability to influence people via religion, religious schools, fear, pressure, coercion, etc.

^^ That right there would be the winning factor.  And at the same time as that, do what we were doing - just more focused, with longer term goals in mind.  The Taliban staying dead would be key.  


Hire locals to rebuild country into a ‘somewhat’ modern country, even if very much 2nd world.
Develop an economic system that resists corruption via its structure, start development of local industries, to at least get some momentum in the right direction
Assist when required, where required.

The Taliban being able to recruit, respawn, and move back into an area once we leave… it screws up the above.  Just wish they’d stay dead and disorganized instead of constantly being able to ‘bounce back with a vengeance’ as they seem quite able to do.  

Genuinely frustrating, as I know many other vets across NATO feel the same way many of us do.  🤬🤬


I do find Biden’s “It’s your country, you have to fight for it” attitude to be somewhat arrogant, to be honest.  If NATO was going after them for 20 years with enthusiasm, with SOF, strike aircraft, helicopters, advanced UAVs, satellites & cell towers intercepting enemy IComm, etc etc - and we weren’t able to eliminate them… asking the Afghans to do it just seems like a “meh, sounds like a you problem” attitude.  

^ I don’t blame him for wanting to be done with the mess, and we can’t leave troops there forever.  I don’t know what the long term solution is.


----------



## CBH99

Possible solution…

Pick a Taliban leader/group that has enough influence to be useful, but aren’t so religiously focused as to not be open to slow change.

Put them in power, as a somewhat controllable puppet regime.  They get some very discreet western support ON THE CONDITION that they tone down the violent bulls**t, and allow for some basic things to start happening.  

Won’t allow the country to move forwards at all?  No support.  And be prepared to be replaced once assassinated/removed, or they step down, etc.  


We find creative reasons to do business with the likes of China and Saudi Arabia.  We’ve hired, supplied, and paid for “freedom fighters” to overthrow regimes before, even dragging Gadaffi’s body through the streets.  We’ve put evil pricks in power in Iran because they agreed to be friendly to our oil interests at the time.  Etc etc.  

 Is it possible to do with Afghanistan?  Or is the US walking away because the negotiations don’t appear to suggest that as an option?


----------



## daftandbarmy

CBH99 said:


> I know this will sound crass to many - I do not mean to sound immature, nor do I intend to offend any of my friends on this board.  (Which I - as cheesy as it sounds - think of most of you as friends.)
> 
> But gosh I wish the solution was as simple as:
> 
> 
> *Go identify who genuine bad guys are*
> *Kill them*
> *Eliminate their ability to influence people via religion, religious schools, fear, pressure, coercion, etc.*



We've just spent a couple of decades, and about a trillion bucks and quite a few lives, trying to do just that. The Russians tried the same thing in the 80s, and the British before that.

IIRC that the best approach to Afghanistan is to sit back and watch, smite the occasional AQ cell that pops up from a safe distance, and resist 'do gooder' efforts to get more involved than that.


----------



## CBH99

daftandbarmy said:


> We've just spent a couple of decades, and about a trillion bucks and quite a few lives, trying to do just that. The Russians tried the same thing in the 80s, and the British before that.
> 
> IIRC that the best approach to Afghanistan is to sit back and watch, smite the occasional AQ cell that pops up from a safe distance, and resist 'do gooder' efforts to get more involved than that.


Agree completely.  I guess my main point was “wish they would stay dead.”

Just so frustrated to see the Taliban make such a strong comeback, so quickly.  And the ANA be driven out so quickly.


----------



## OldSolduer

CBH99 said:


> Agree completely.  I guess my main point was “wish they would stay dead.”
> 
> Just so frustrated to see the Taliban make such a strong comeback, so quickly.  And the ANA be driven out so quickly.


You can thank Pakistan and by extension the Chinese for that.


----------



## daftandbarmy

CBH99 said:


> Agree completely.  I guess my main point was “wish they would stay dead.”
> 
> Just so frustrated to see the Taliban make such a strong comeback, so quickly.  And the ANA be driven out so quickly.



Eastern cultures look at turn of events like this quite differently from our 'simpleton' western views of 'winning and losing'. 

That doesn't make it any easier to watch, of course, but it's a good example of what Kipling was talking about when he wrote: 'East is East and West is West and never the twains shall meet....'


----------



## Brad Sallows

An opportunity for revolutionary change is an opportunity for everyone who cares to try.  There is no "we'll sweep out X and bring in Y, and no other competing interests".  To be the agent of the opportunity is to be taken advantage of by everyone with an agenda.  Don't be the agent.  A costly lesson, for the Nth time.  Will it stick?


----------



## quadrapiper

CBH99 said:


> Possible solution…
> 
> Pick a Taliban leader/group that has enough influence to be useful, but aren’t so religiously focused as to not be open to slow change.
> 
> Put them in power, as a somewhat controllable puppet regime.  They get some very discreet western support ON THE CONDITION that they tone down the violent bulls**t, and allow for some basic things to start happening.
> 
> Won’t allow the country to move forwards at all?  No support.  And be prepared to be replaced once assassinated/removed, or they step down, etc.
> 
> 
> We find creative reasons to do business with the likes of China and Saudi Arabia.  We’ve hired, supplied, and paid for “freedom fighters” to overthrow regimes before, even dragging Gadaffi’s body through the streets.  We’ve put evil pricks in power in Iran because they agreed to be friendly to our oil interests at the time.  Etc etc.
> 
> Is it possible to do with Afghanistan?  Or is the US walking away because the negotiations don’t appear to suggest that as an option?


Wasn't there an opportunity to do something like this years ago, with the IIRC Northern Alliance?


----------



## Colin Parkinson

The obsession with keeping Afghanistan intact as is may be the problem. Let the various ethnic groups join up with the neighbours they want to be with. Iran gets Herat, the Stan's get the Northern bits and the Pastun's form Pastunstan and then they can happily fight Pakistan for the rest of the NWF. Maybe the Balochs form their own country as well at some point.


----------



## stoker dave

Maybe there is no 'military' solution to Afghanistan.  I say that when the people of Afghanistan are tired of war, fighting, conflict, destruction and poverty, then maybe there will be an opportunity to help them build the society we all want for them.


----------



## CBH99

quadrapiper said:


> Wasn't there an opportunity to do something like this years ago, with the IIRC Northern Alliance?


There have been many articles written, by some very experienced folks far smarter than I, that suggested it should have been a CIA/SOF war from the beginning.  

We were able to hire various warlords, at various times over the last 2 decades, to work with us - even the Haqqani network briefly.  (Protecting/not attacking supplies coming in via highway from Pakistan, not attacking certain construction projects, etc).  

I imagine you are correct, as the Northern Alliance would have been the ideal choice at the time if the strategy had been different.  

It was immediately post 9-11, and America NEEDED to handle their business in a very public way.   Osama Bin Laden was on the loose, the Taliban were supposedly protecting him, and America was seething for ‘Justice’.

Even if it was the more promising strategy, I don’t think it would have flown with the public.  At the time, I believe the strategy needed to be seen as violent, big, and a very clear “F-You!” to the groups America needed to sort out.  


The above is just my opinion, it isn’t backed up with any specific articles right now.  But I do remember reading - over the years - that quietly ‘moulding and shaping’ Afghanistan using intelligence agencies and SOF was a strategy several senior people believed was the better option, but due to the ‘vibe of the west’ in the years following 9-11, it just wasn’t an option they could choose.

*Perhaps there is no military solution for Afghanistan, like Stoker Dave suggested.  Truly.  Graveyard of empires.  If the Soviets, British, American led NATO haven’t been able to ‘tame it’… perhaps Dave and Colin are each onto something.  🤷🏼‍♂️


----------



## FJAG

The CIA and the SOF did a great job in the initial phase of the operation and were almost single-handedly responsible for bringing together the local ground forces with American air power to defeat the Taliban. 

They were then left with two realities.

The first was the need to put together a stable government that could develop to resisting any future insurgency. In order to do that there was a perceived need to disassemble the existing warlord structure which a) formed the backbone of the anti-Taliban forces and b) formed the largest threat to a nascent national government. That process went slowly and failed dismally particulalry in the building of a stable and trustworthy national police force (a task assumed by Germany as part of the Bonn accord)

The second was the fact that the special forces were the darling of Donald Rumsfeld and seriously threatened the conventional US Army. The conventional army pushed hard to insert themselves as the primary managers of the Afghan operation. At the most critical time much of the SOF was diverted to the operation building for Iraq which left the conventional army (and NATO) to pick up almost all of the slack in Afghanistan. The conventional army took overall charge of Enduring Freedom which, in the aggregate, was a mission much more suited to Green SOF elements. Instead, while there were Green SOF forces in Afghanistan they were relegated more and more to Black (or at least darkish Green direct action) SOF missions while nation building and local security force building activities were off loaded to a hodge podge of conventional forces. The building of the ANA, for example, became a National Guard responsibility. 

I tend to agree with Biden (and God help me  ... Trump) in this regard. If after almost twenty years in the country, we can't get the Afghans to look after their own security then how long do we need to be there or is it just a futile effort? We complain about the fact that the ISI was backing the Taliban but in the same way, the CIA and ISI backed the Mujahedeen against the Soviets. It's a given that there will be interested parties involved in any such effort to see us fail. In the end, its what the Afghans want and are prepared to fight for that matters.

If nothing else, Afghanistan has taught us a valuable lesson. Our experiences with the Yugoslavian failed states made us think we could fix these things and, in large part Canada, restructured its military for that type of mission. The argument was made with respect to Iraq that the US left too soon. It stayed longer in Afghanistan but the result is not much better. If nothing else, we've learned that you can't fix every failed state by occupying it and spilling your blood on their soil for decades. We were in Afghanistan at a time where, while we suffered losses, our expeditionary force was never at risk of destruction. Equipped the way we are, we may not be so lucky the next time.

🍻


----------



## suffolkowner

Colin Parkinson said:


> The obsession with keeping Afghanistan intact as is may be the problem. Let the various ethnic groups join up with the neighbours they want to be with. Iran gets Herat, the Stan's get the Northern bits and the Pastun's form Pastunstan and then they can happily fight Pakistan for the rest of the NWF. Maybe the Balochs form their own country as well at some point.


I suggested that before but in the post WW2 world everyone seems to think the lines on the map are immutable even when logic suggests they shouldn't be. Pakistan may have opened a can of worms here, maybe we should just let them try to put the lid on it, although Pakistan may not survive it and as bad as Afghanistan and Pakistan are no the last thing I would like to see is a nuclear armed Al-Queda Pashtunstan. We were unwilling to commit the time and blood necessary to civilize the population. Gaul wasn't pacified in 20 years either


----------



## OldSolduer

suffolkowner said:


> I suggested that before but in the post WW2 world everyone seems to think the lines on the map are immutable even when logic suggests they shouldn't be. Pakistan may have opened a can of worms here, maybe we should just let them try to put the lid on it, although Pakistan may not survive it and as bad as Afghanistan and Pakistan are no the last thing I would like to see is a nuclear armed Al-Queda Pashtunstan. We were unwilling to commit the time and blood necessary to civilize the population. Gaul wasn't pacified in 20 years either


Alexander the Great couldn't take the Aghans either. And FWIW a nuke armed state with AQ in charge is beyond the pale. MAYBE we should be thinking about that, as I am sure some big brains are.


----------



## Altair

stoker dave said:


> Maybe there is no 'military' solution to Afghanistan.  I say that when the people of Afghanistan are tired of war, fighting, conflict, destruction and poverty, then maybe there will be an opportunity to help them build the society we all want for them.


These people have been fighting since Alexander the great was in the region.

If fighting and dying were an endurance sport the afghans would win gold every time.


----------



## Brad Sallows

> maybe there will be an opportunity to help them build the society we all want for them.



Prize for deepest irony today.


----------



## dapaterson

I'm still waiting for the Afghanistan / Vietnam results (per Spy Magazine in 1989)






						And I Also Shouldn't Just Embed Charts From 'Spy'
					

It's March Madness time, international division




					www.theatlantic.com


----------



## Blackadder1916

At least they're not calling it Operation Frequent Wind 2.  During the Pentagon press conference, the DOD spokesman was asked if the operation had a name and he replied that it did not.









						Pentagon sending troops to Kabul to help evacuation of U.S. Embassy
					

A U.S. official says Kandahar "is in the process of falling."




					www.cbsnews.com
				





> Pentagon sending troops to Kabul to help evacuation of U.S. embassy​The Pentagon is sending troops to Karzai International Airport in Kabul to help evacuate U.S. embassy as the Taliban continues its offensive in Afghanistan. A U.S. official told CBS News the Pentagon is sending in about 3,000 troops to help with the drawdown some staff at the embassy.
> 
> State Department spokesman Ned Price said Thursday that the embassy is not closing, and the U.S. will continue to operate consular services and special immigrant visa applications.
> 
> "This is not an abandonment," Price said. "This is not an evacuation. This is not a wholesale withdrawal."
> 
> Price said the U.S. is going to a smaller smaller diplomatic presence, given the security siutaiton. Price said this is a contigency plan that the U.S. had been prepared.
> 
> In the past week, the Taliban has overtaken at least 10 provincial capitals and Kandahar City is "in the process of falling" according to a U.S. official.
> 
> President Joe Biden earlier this year announced all U.S. troops would withdraw by the end of August, but the U.S. would maintain a diplomatic presence.


----------



## Altair

Afghanistan: Major cities fall to Taliban amid heavy fighting
					

Militants now control many of Afghanistan's key regional cities, including Herat and Ghazni.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				




According to the BBC, it's 11 capitals in 1 week.

Herat and Ghazni are significant though.

I'm guessing kandahar will fall shortly.


----------



## Blackadder1916

And the stampede begins.









						UK and US send troops to aid evacuation from Afghanistan as Taliban advance
					

Pentagon aims to send in 3,000 soldiers to ‘aid reduction’ of nationals and Afghans with visas




					www.theguardian.com
				





> UK to send 600 troops to Afghanistan to aid evacuation as Taliban advance​Up to 200 UK diplomats and soldiers to be evacuated as militants’ grip on country grows
> 
> The UK is to urgently send an extra 600 troops to Afghanistan this week to secure the speedy retreat of British diplomats, forces, UK passport holders and as many as 4,000 entitled Afghan personnel, as the Taliban advance towards Kabul.
> 
> The defence secretary, Ben Wallace, said the UK was relocating its embassy from the outskirts of the secure Green Zone to a potentially safer location closer to the centre of the capital.
> 
> As many as 200 UK diplomats and soldiers are being evacuated, but precise numbers are not being given. The US and other western governments are also accelerating plans for the evacuation of embassy staff amid fears over the Taliban’s remorseless advance across the country.
> 
> The US state department is expected to announce a parallel move to Britain’s – an evacuation of a “significant” number of employees from its embassy in Kabul, and will send extra military forces to help with the operation, according to three sources who spoke to Reuters.
> 
> The announcement came as Afghanistan’s second-largest city, Kandahar, was claimed by the Taliban and its third largest, Herat, fully fell to the militants. The group has now established a bridgehead within 95 miles (150km) of Kabul and its rapid advances leave the capital isolated from the rest of the country and facing a perilous threat as provincial capitals have toppled one after another in the past seven days.
> 
> . . .  (more at link)


----------



## OldSolduer

Blackadder1916 said:


> And the stampede begins.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> UK and US send troops to aid evacuation from Afghanistan as Taliban advance
> 
> 
> Pentagon aims to send in 3,000 soldiers to ‘aid reduction’ of nationals and Afghans with visas
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theguardian.com


Lets hope all the embassy staff of allied nations get out. I recall 1979 and the fall of the Shah of Iran - if you all know what I mean. 

As for nations that are not allied with us or downright despise us - good luck.


----------



## OldSolduer

US sending 3K troops for partial Afghan embassy evacuation
		


Apparently Kandahar has fallen.  Not good news at all but not unexpected.




			Taliban take Kandahar, Herat in major Afghanistan offensive


----------



## brihard

Kandahar City has reportedly fallen, and there's video of ANSF fleeing the city- though with Ghazni also captured, I don't know where they'll go. KAF has not fallen yet so far as I can tell, but at this point it's just a matter of time. Consolidating on the city will take time, but they'll probably want to preserve their momentum and take advantage of panic at the airfield.



			https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/afghanistan-kabul-kandahar-herat-special-forces-1.6139450


----------



## Colin Parkinson

*Alex Hollings*​

It’s Taliban Christmas!
** Correction on this - one Scan Eagle system includes 4 air platforms, so we’re looking at around $3 million rather than $12.
Despite picking my own nits, I stand by the below assertion.
Nah, I’m not arguing that we should have stayed, just that we probably should have had a plan for leaving.
This is old tech, but it’ll still prove valuable to their foreign buyers - and the same goes for a lot of the gear the Taliban will recover. Just like not having a plan to pull our terps and their families out, it’s not even about what we lose in Afghanistan today - it’s about what we lose in terms of foreign influence, technological advantage, and public perception for the next ten years.
It was time to go, yes. But we had twenty years to plan for this. It’s not all on Biden. There have been two Republicans and two Democrats in office through this conflict. If you think this has to do with political parties, you’re mistaken.






						Facebook
					






					www.facebook.com


----------



## Altair

brihard said:


> Kandahar City has reportedly fallen, and there's video of ANSF fleeing the city- though with Ghazni also captured, I don't know where they'll go. KAF has not fallen yet so far as I can tell, but at this point it's just a matter of time. Consolidating on the city will take time, but they'll probably want to preserve their momentum and take advantage of panic at the airfield.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/afghanistan-kabul-kandahar-herat-special-forces-1.6139450


dump uniforms in the nearest garbage and find a way to kabul.


----------



## kkwd

Canadian troops on the way to evacuate the embassy, or so an "official" says. Today will probably see confirmation or denial of this.


> Canadian special forces will deploy to Afghanistan where Canadian embassy staff in Kabul will be evacuated before closing, a source familiar with the plan told The Associated Press.


Canada sending forces to close Afghan embassy: official


----------



## CBH99

I’m glad to see a flight of our Afghan interpreters & help land in Toronto.  But it was too little, too late.  

We even had the audacity to leave some of them right there at the airfield, along with their families, because of some outdated paperwork.  Even if their families were good to go, they weren’t allowed to board if our contracted help had outdated documents.  

How are we going to find these people, and their families now?  How do we get them to Kabul with the Taliban controlling almost everywhere, and controlling more and more each day?

We ended our combat mission in 2011.  It is now 2021. Ten years later, and we didn’t relocate these individuals during that time - our part of the agreement was that we would.  And even now, heaven forbid we do the process slightly out of order…


Unless they were able to get themselves to Kabul prior to the Taliban seizing the travel routes, we can’t hold up our end of the bargain.  Some of them may not have even known the urgency behind their situation in recent weeks, or have disappeared into the ether.  

As much as I dislike Trudeau, it isn’t just his fault.  We’ve had 10 years to do this.  To do what we said we would do.  And now we’ve left some of them to the wolves…


----------



## dimsum

CBH99 said:


> We even had the audacity to leave some of them right there at the airfield, along with their families, because of some outdated paperwork. Even if their families were good to go, they weren’t allowed to board if our contracted help had outdated documents.


Where did you read that? 

I'm not disputing, I just hadn't read that part anywhere (yet).


----------



## CBH99

dimsum said:


> Where did you read that?
> 
> I'm not disputing, I just hadn't read that part anywhere (yet).


I'll find the articles I read shortly and post them.

Sorry, I thought I had attached it, but was using my phone when I wrote that - not the most tech savvy person here.










						‘The Taliban are knocking on the doors’: Suspended passport service the latest roadblock for former Afghan interpreters, staff trying to flee to Canada
					

A valid travel document is required for eligible Afghan interpreters and civilians who worked for the Canadian Forces to board a flight to Canada. But the shutdown of local services has meant they can’t get a passport.




					www.thestar.com
				





_____


At least two groups of Taliban actually have access to ID's & fingerprints of our Afghan helpers, and are using laptops with special software to connect and identify them.  One of these groups are already in Kabul going door-to-door, while there were unconfirmed reports of another using the same tactics in Herat.  This next article refers to the group of Taliban in Kabul.

How did they get that information?  Names, general locations, fingerprints, and a software program that can confirm connections between fingerprints and our helpers?









						Corbella: It's our turn to help Afghan interpreters and workers who risked all for us
					

As the Taliban gains strength in Afghanistan, many Canadians who have worked with brave men and women in that troubled country are doing everything they can to…




					calgaryherald.com
				





_____


Here is the article that referred to at least one of our helpers who was at the airport, after being contacted and told to make his way to Kabul.  His family had valid travel documents, however his passport was expired, and therefore the Afghan government forbid him to leave.  Another had to debate whether he should leave his family behind, because they didn't have valid passports.

Just to make sure everybody is reminded of how insincere and stupid some of our folks at the top are - we are ALSO requiring them to show up to the airport with a valid Covid test, showing negative, dated within 3 days of arrival.  Done at their own expense.  (Do the people in charge of this know where Afghanistan is, and what it is actually like outside of the major cities?  They don't exactly have a Shoppers Drug Mart around the corner they can pop into real quick...)









						Afghans who helped Canada stranded at Kabul airport due to passport rule, group says - National | Globalnews.ca
					

About 20 interpreters and their families were unable to board flights to Canada, according to Afghan-Canadian Interpreters.




					globalnews.ca
				






I know I'm going to sound like a broken record here folks, and I apologize.  I know a lot of this will just be a repeat of my vent above.  But the government ended our combat mission in Afghanistan in 2011, and in my opinion we should have relocated our helpers when we were withdrawing our troops and equipment.  Instead we chose not to have a program all of these years, and here we are scrambling at the very last second to pull something together.  What is the Taliban hadn't resurged the way they have?  Would we ever have a program to uphold our end of the bargain?

When these brave and exceptionally helpful people stepped up to help NATO forces by cooking, helping with gate duty, outside security at embassies, translating and interpreting for us, and helping us understand the immediate 'lay of the land' that wasn't always visible to the western eye - they stepped up because they knew the Taliban were the bad guys, and had faith that they were helping the good guys.  I don't think the contracts ever mentioned anything "Warning - relocation upon completion of Canadian operations may take 10+ years.  Also may never happen.  Have a Plan B."


I'll wrap up my rant here shortly, but just my remaining 0.02...

-  If we can confirm that they were contracted by us during our operations there, get them on the plane and get them out.  Period.  Just get it f**king done.  We can sort out their passport issue once they land here - you know, where we have passport offices, reliable communications & internet access, and their lives aren't literally being measured by an hour glass icon.  We brought 20,000+ Syrian refugees over in the blink of an eye, and yet we can't bring over a few hundred Afghans who actually earned that flight by helping us?

-  Drop the Covid test requirement.  FFS.  We can test them upon arrival, and make arrangements for them to stay in an isolation hotel if they do test positive.  (Or something like that.)  We will have to put them up in hotels or military bases anyway, we can just have a separate hotel/accommodation for those who test positive.  Upon arrival, while sorting our accommodations, passport issues, visas, etc - we can get them all vaccinated.  Not a big deal by any means. 

(We still allowed international flights from Covid hotspot countries for pretty much the entire time our borders were apparently closed, no problem.  Wouldn't want to offend vote-important ethnic groups such as the Chinese or the Indians.  But again, heaven forbid we let one or two flights land & just deal with the Covid issue when/if it arises.)


I apologize for the above rant.  I don't mean to sound dramatic or unreasonable, and by all means please PM me if I'm coming across differently than how I intend.  But I feel like our government is representing us in the worst possible way right now.  We gave them our word, we interviewed them, we literally shook their hands, and they were right beside us ducking behind mud-brick walls when we were in a TIC.  I realize this doesn't lay all at Trudeau's feet, but even if we ignore the last decade of no action being taken on this - we've had a month of warning to get organized and prepared to get this done.  I don't think the people in charge of this understand that the word 'Immediately' translates into 'Right The F**k Now'. 


<Rant over, sorry guys>


----------



## MilEME09

Given the public relations of the taliban and China, I'd bet my life savings the taliban is being equipped by China, and maybe even trained.


----------



## OldSolduer

I’m - it’s frustrating that we can’t get them all out.  Dithering seems to be in vogue these days.


----------



## brihard

Feds are now saying we'll take 20,000 Afghan refugees.



			https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/afghanistan-resettlement-program-aug13-1.6140599


----------



## Altair

Lashkar Gah has fallen

I wonder if there are any lessons the Afghan government can take from the situation in Syria which seemed similarly bleak for Assad.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

UN chief calls on Taliban to halt offensive against govt forces
					

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Friday called on Taliban militants to immediately halt their offensive against government forces and return to the negotiating table in good faith, in the interest of Afghanistan and its people.




					news.cgtn.com
				







Screenshot


----------



## RangerRay

Altair said:


> Lashkar Gah has fallen
> 
> I wonder if there are any lessons the Afghan government can take from the situation in Syria which seemed similarly bleak for Assad.


Invite Russia to come in and bomb everyone indiscriminately?  Drop barrel bombs on hospitals?


----------



## Weinie

Colin Parkinson said:


> UN chief calls on Taliban to halt offensive against govt forces
> 
> 
> United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Friday called on Taliban militants to immediately halt their offensive against government forces and return to the negotiating table in good faith, in the interest of Afghanistan and its people.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> news.cgtn.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Screenshot
> View attachment 66010


And that is a surprise to whom? Sigh.................


----------



## Altair

RangerRay said:


> Invite Russia to come in and bomb everyone indiscriminately?  Drop barrel bombs on hospitals?


Whatever works?


----------



## Jarnhamar

Altair said:


> Whatever works?


Maybe our prime minister could don some traditional afghani clothes and go visit. Do some dancing, maybe broker a peace deal. Could even mean a seat on the UN security council.


----------



## YZT580

brihard said:


> Feds are now saying we'll take 20,000 Afghan refugees.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/afghanistan-resettlement-program-aug13-1.6140599


provided they can complete the eforms and have their personal documents notarized in the next 20 minutes.  Oh and they must have a current covid test that is acceptable.  How pray tell are they supposed to get here?  Scheduled air service is probably booked by now.  They couldn't even provide passage for the few hundred or so families who worked for us with 10 years to set it up.


----------



## Altair

Jarnhamar said:


> Maybe our prime minister could don some traditional afghani clothes and go visit. Do some dancing, maybe broker a peace deal. Could even mean a seat on the UN security council.


Ah yes.

Must be election season when even talking about the chaos in Afghanistan brings out talk of Trudeau.


----------



## Jarnhamar

Altair said:


> Ah yes.
> 
> Must be election season when even talking about the chaos in Afghanistan brings out talk of Trudeau.


Whatever works 




> "This is very personal," said Sajjan, who did three tours in Afghanistan as a reserve force intelligence liaison officer. "This is very personal to me as well.


It must be very hard for the architect of Op Medusa to see this happening.



> It will include families of interpreters who already have immigrated, women leaders, members of minorities targeted by the Taliban and journalists.



What about members of the ANA and ANP who will be targeted by the Taliban?


----------



## Altair

Jarnhamar said:


> Whatever works


Grow up mate.


----------



## OldSolduer

Colin Parkinson said:


> UN chief calls on Taliban to halt offensive against govt forces
> 
> 
> United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Friday called on Taliban militants to immediately halt their offensive against government forces and return to the negotiating table in good faith, in the interest of Afghanistan and its people.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> news.cgtn.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Screenshot
> View attachment 66010


And fwow them wuffwy to the gwound those wascals.

What a fucking useless organization the UN is.

And yes I have a very personal connection to Afghanistan.


----------



## FJAG

Is anyone else wondering why the pull-out of a handful of US personnel is causing the collapse of the whole country?

How come we aren't hearing anything about the 150-180,000 ANA everyone has spent the last decade and a half equipping and training?


----------



## Altair

FJAG said:


> Is anyone else wondering why the pull-out of a handful of US personnel is causing the collapse of the whole country?
> 
> How come we aren't hearing anything about the 150-180,000 ANA everyone has spent the last decade and a half equipping and training?


because it only exists on paper. 

local commander says he has 100 men under his command, demands salary for 100 men, actually has 20. Pockets the difference.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Altair said:


> Whatever works?


Yeah, because the same general approach worked for the Soviets so well, right?  Although this time, the opposition wouldn't have American help, so there IS that ....


----------



## Altair

The Bread Guy said:


> Yeah, because the same general approach worked for the Soviets so well, right?  Although this time, the opposition wouldn't have American help, so there IS that ....


Say what you will, but the Russians along with assads brutality turned the tide and won their war in Syria after it looked very much like Damascus would fall.

And if if came down to supporting a brutal Afghan regime that murdered their own people in order to maintain a grip over the nation or just handing it over the to the Taliban, I know which one I would choose, however distasteful.


----------



## Jarnhamar

FJAG said:


> Is anyone else wondering why the pull-out of a handful of US personnel is causing the collapse of the whole country?
> 
> How come we aren't hearing anything about the 150-180,000 ANA everyone has spent the last decade and a half equipping and training?


Sad when you think the thousands of lives and billions of dollars put into Afghanistan to bring us to this very unsurprising point.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Altair said:


> Say what you will, but the Russians along with assads brutality turned the tide and won their war in Syria after it looked very much like Damascus would fall.
> 
> And if if came down to supporting a brutal Afghan regime that murdered their own people in order to maintain a grip over the nation or just handing it over the to the Taliban, I know which one I would choose, however distasteful.



If you want to see some 'murdering', just watch closely over the next few months or so.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Altair said:


> ... supporting a brutal Afghan regime that murdered their own people in order to maintain a grip over the nation or just handing it over the to the Taliban ...


----------



## Brad Sallows

Culture matters, and not all cultures are equally ready for liberalization.  End of story.


----------



## Altair

The Bread Guy said:


> View attachment 66019


Ones bad and ones worse.


----------



## Altair

All I'm saying is that if I were Ashraf Ghani, knowing what happened to Mohammed Najibullah,  I would be calling Putin promising a lions share of the 1 trillion dollars of resources estimated to be extractable in return for doing what they did in Syria.


----------



## Weinie

Altair said:


> All I'm saying is that if I were Ashraf Ghani, knowing what happened to Mohammed Najibullah,  I would be calling Putin promising a lions share of the 1 trillion dollars of resources estimated to be extractable in return for doing what they did in Syria.


Mmmmmmmm, but the Russians already tried that.


----------



## OldSolduer

I was listening to the Roy Green show earlier today and his first subject was the repatriation of the Afghan interpreters. 

I am truly afraid for their safety.


----------



## Altair

Weinie said:


> Mmmmmmmm, but the Russians already tried that.


The Russians tried to occupy Afghanistan. That didn't work. 

I doubt Russia could occupy Syria either. 

But relentlessly bombing the enemy regardless of civilian casualties until the local forces can occupy the territory, yeah, they are much better suited to that.


----------



## Weinie

Altair said:


> The Russians tried to occupy Afghanistan. That didn't work.
> 
> I doubt Russia could occupy Syria either.
> 
> But relentlessly bombing the enemy regardless of civilian casualties until the local forces can occupy the territory, yeah, they are much better suited to that.


But, that goes against Liberal values.


----------



## Altair

Weinie said:


> But, that goes against Liberal values.


It sure does.

Good thing Russia doesn't give a damn about that.

Again, these are things I would be doing if I were Ashraf Ghani.


----------



## MilEME09

Civilians Heard Screaming as Battle for Kabul Begins
					

Footage recorded by an Afghan Civilian shows the beginning of the Battle of Kabul which is taking place right now. Civilians in the streets can be heard screaming as gunfire erupts in all directions.




					funker530.com
				




The Taliban have begun their assault on Kabul, the question is, will it hold?


----------



## Altair

MilEME09 said:


> Civilians Heard Screaming as Battle for Kabul Begins
> 
> 
> Footage recorded by an Afghan Civilian shows the beginning of the Battle of Kabul which is taking place right now. Civilians in the streets can be heard screaming as gunfire erupts in all directions.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> funker530.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The Taliban have begun their assault on Kabul, the question is, will it hold?


Would they really begin attacking Kabul with 3000 US troops,600 British troops, and however many Canadian CANSOF in the capital?


----------



## medic5

Weinie said:


> Optimist.


Crap. I really did think the Afghan government would last a little longer. Right now it looks like it will last negative 1 month after the US withdraws.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Altair said:


> Would they really begin attacking Kabul with 3000 US troops,600 British troops, and however many Canadian CANSOF in the capital?



Oh hell yeah... that's a drop in the ocean because anyone who doesn't want their heads chopped off will be trying to kill westerners to prove their loyalty...

Former CENTCOM commander says US 'may have underestimated' Taliban's 'planning capabilities'​
The Taliban’s successful military operations this week may have come because the United States “underestimated” the group’s “planning capabilities,” according to one former CENTCOM commander.

Former U.S. CENTCOM commander Gen. Joseph Votel told the Washington Examiner in an interview that he has been “very, very surprised” by the “speed” with which the Taliban has captured 14 of Afghanistan's 34 provincial capitals as well as Kandahar and Herat.









						Former CENTCOM commander says US 'may have underestimated' Taliban's 'planning capabilities'
					

The Taliban’s successful military operations this week may have come because the United States “underestimated” the group’s “planning capabilities,” according to one former CENTCOM commander.




					news.yahoo.com


----------



## Altair

daftandbarmy said:


> Oh hell yeah... that's a drop in the ocean because anyone who doesn't want their heads chopped off will be trying to kill westerners to prove their loyalty...
> 
> Former CENTCOM commander says US 'may have underestimated' Taliban's 'planning capabilities'​
> The Taliban’s successful military operations this week may have come because the United States “underestimated” the group’s “planning capabilities,” according to one former CENTCOM commander.
> 
> Former U.S. CENTCOM commander Gen. Joseph Votel told the Washington Examiner in an interview that he has been “very, very surprised” by the “speed” with which the Taliban has captured 14 of Afghanistan's 34 provincial capitals as well as Kandahar and Herat.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Former CENTCOM commander says US 'may have underestimated' Taliban's 'planning capabilities'
> 
> 
> The Taliban’s successful military operations this week may have come because the United States “underestimated” the group’s “planning capabilities,” according to one former CENTCOM commander.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> news.yahoo.com


Well, that's stupid.

Kabul likely falls without too much fuss after western forces leave within the week.

Right now those western forces are very capable of giving any attacking force a very bloody nose for their trouble.


----------



## Maxman1

Jarnhamar said:


> Maybe our prime minister could don some traditional afghani clothes and go visit. Do some dancing, maybe broker a peace deal. Could even mean a seat on the UN security council.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Altair said:


> All I'm saying is that if I were Ashraf Ghani, knowing what happened to Mohammed Najibullah,  I would be calling Putin promising a lions share of the 1 trillion dollars of resources estimated to be extractable in return for doing what they did in Syria.


You're comparing apples and oranges.  The conditions that exist in Syria don't exist in Afghanistan and saying the same strategy would work is deeply flawed.


----------



## Altair

Humphrey Bogart said:


> You're comparing apples and oranges.  The conditions that exist in Syria don't exist in Afghanistan and saying the same strategy would work is deeply flawed.


Everything about the current situation is deeply flawed.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

Altair said:


> Everything about the current situation is deeply flawed.


That we can both agree on.


----------



## Remius

Altair said:


> All I'm saying is that if I were Ashraf Ghani, knowing what happened to Mohammed Najibullah,  I would be calling Putin promising a lions share of the 1 trillion dollars of resources estimated to be extractable in return for doing what they did in Syria.


Well given that he has left the country maybe he went to Russia and could ask him Personally.









						Taliban sweep into Afghan capital Kabul as government collapses, President Ashraf Ghani flees country
					

Taliban to hold talks in the coming days aimed at forming an ‘open, inclusive Islamic government’




					www.theglobeandmail.com


----------



## The Bread Guy

Too many stereotypical moments/images ....

Yesterday:  *"Regrouping the military ‘a top priority’, Afghan president says"*
Today:  *"Taliban orders fighters to enter Kabul after President Ashraf Ghani leaves for Tajikistan"*
And now, this


----------



## The Bread Guy

And this, from the Taliban info-machine, less than an hour ago via Twitter (Google translated - screen capture in Farsi attached) - narrative:  we hear the cops are all running away, so our boys are just going in to prevent looting and other nastiness ....


> *Declaration of the Islamic Emirate on the need for Mujahideen to enter Kabul
> *
> The Islamic Emirate issued a statement in the morning stating that our forces are out of Kabul and we do not want to enter Kabul militarily.
> 
> But now there are reports that districts in Kabul have been evacuated, police have left their job of providing security, ministries have been evacuated, and security personnel from the Kabul administration have fled. So that God forbid the common thieves and robbers in Kabul do not mix, the abusers do not harm the people, the Islamic Emirate ordered its forces to enter the areas of Kabul from where the enemy and areas There is a risk of theft and robbery.
> 
> Therefore, the citizens of Kabul should not feel any fear from the Mujahideen, our forces will enter Kabul city very easily, they will not work with anyone, government military and civilian users should make sure that no one uses them, no Mujahideen You are not allowed to enter anyone's home, or to harass or annoy anyone.
> 
> Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan


----------



## Jarnhamar

Why did a security force we (NATO) spent 20 years training and trillions of dollars equipping crumble in a week?


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Jarnhamar said:


> Why did a security force we (NATO) spent 20 years training and trillions of dollars equipping crumble in a week?


Because the Taliban have been preparing the ground likely for a couple of years for this offensive. They likely have been negotiating with tribes/factions, intimidating and murdering opposition, collecting intel and moving people and arms into the areas.


----------



## MilEME09

Colin Parkinson said:


> Because the Taliban have been preparing the ground likely for a couple of years for this offensive. They likely have been negotiating with tribes/factions, intimidating and murdering opposition, collecting intel and moving people and arms into the areas.


From what I have been hearing, they were also equipped by China, likely via the ISI or Iran. American troops are quoted as finding taliban in possession of Chinese jamming equipment as an example.


----------



## Jarnhamar

Good points. Next question would be was this done under the US/NATOs noses or we were tracking this and looked the other way?


----------



## MilEME09

Jarnhamar said:


> Good points. Next question would be was this done under the US/NATOs noses or we were tracking this and looked the other way?


Possibly both, politics played a huge part of Afghanistan, just like it did in Vietnam, the US couldn't go into Cambodia back then. Politics prevented us from going after the taliban is the Pakistani tribal region. This gave them safe haven to train and equip. Aside from the odd drone strike which needed to be a HVT we couldn't touch them till they crossed the border.


----------



## Remius

Jarnhamar said:


> Why did a security force we (NATO) spent 20 years training and trillions of dollars equipping crumble in a week?


Well according to one expert, the Taliban fight for God and Belief.  The ANA fights for money.


----------



## MilEME09

Remius said:


> Well according to one expert, the Taliban fight for God and Belief.  The ANA fights for money.


Takes more then 20 years to forge a national identity


----------



## Kirkhill

MilEME09 said:


> Takes more then 20 years to forge a national identity


Especially when the enmities predate Alexander the Great.

Heck.  They predate Hammurabi and Sargon.


----------



## Infanteer

Unpopular take - after 20 years, Afghans will likely finally get a government that can provide them with stability and local security.


----------



## MilEME09

Kirkhill said:


> Especially when the enmities predate Alexander the Great.
> 
> Heck.  They predate Hammurabi and Sargon.


You would have better luck breaking up Afghanistan into a bunch of smaller city states centered around the tribal groups.


----------



## FJAG

Infanteer said:


> Unpopular take - after 20 years, Afghans will likely finally get a government that can provide them with stability and local security.


My understanding is that the previous Taliban government, while providing a form of stability and local security was also notoriously incompetent when it came to the real issues facing civil administrations. I know, I know, what we cobbled together since 2001 was no shining star either but it built more things then it blew up.

🍻


----------



## MilEME09

This morning at Rideau Hall and in Kabul - Macleans.ca
					

Scott Gilmore: Trudeau went to Rideau Hall because he wants to be Prime Minister a little longer. If he wanted to really do something, he would have been in a crisis ops room.




					www.macleans.ca
				




This article claims we left behind 100 Gurkha's at our embassy, anyone know if that's true?


----------



## brihard

I’m following some decent OSINT aggregators on Twitter. This situation is increasingly desperate. Some tidbits:


NATO has closed the airport to all non-military flights. The last commercial flight (Ukrainian) got off a couple hours ago.
Turkey is pulling pole. They will not secure the airport.
US, UK, Fre, Ger ambassadors have moved to the airport.
BBC reporting the US ambassador has ‘left Kabul’.
US embassy’s flag is down and I’m starting to see reports of Talibs at the embassy.
US has ceased all consular services on the ground and has told Americans to shelter in place and not to try to make it to the airport.
Mixed reports that the airport took fire, though I saw one commercial flight leave a couple hours later.
Kabul is gridlocked.
Talibs throughout Kabul.
Already daylight photos of pictures/paintings of women being torn down or painted over.
Saw a video of a C-17 on the tarmac, geotagged to Kabul airport. The ramp was raised to about head level, crowd of what looked like locals on the ground behind the ramp and a bunch already on the plane pulling/pushing people up onto the ramp. Didn’t appear to be a controlled situation. Tracers in the sky in the background.
Open source aircraft monitors are seeing a ton of tactical airlift entering the airspace before going transponders off. Based on US Navy C-130s being part of it, sorta seems like all hands on deck.
Several smaller ISTAR birds over Kabul and Mazer e Sharif fucked off to Tajikistan and circled there.
Kabul is surrounded by land. Only way out is air bridge.
uncertainty about how many US troops made it to Kabul. A bunch may still be on the ground in Kuwait.
No indication of deiberate concerted attacks on the airport so far
No indication of attempts to close the airport by the Taliban.

So:

This is increasingly looking like Dunkirk by air.
Kabul airport is single runway, well within RPG or MMG/HMG range from plenty of vantage points.
Taliban likely already have the ability to close the airport by fire if they choose.
Taliban likely have the ability to trap a few US and UK battalions on the ground, plus whatever remains of Can, Fre, Ger, etc.
Clock has probably already run out for terps, LEPs, at-risk locals (charities, journals, human rights etc). At this point anyone without a western passport likely isn’t getting on a military flight out, and commercial is done. Given the enemy’s likely ability to close the airport by fire at will and without notice, western interests will prioritize self-interest.

What will probably happen overnight (if not already) and what we probably won’t get good info on will be the really ugly scenes of desperation; shots fired to keep crowds back from aircraft/airport etc. It looks like western troops are probably on their own and I don’t know what the security perimeter looks like or how it will shrink. It may not yet.

No solid info on how many westerners are still on the ground pending evac.

There is massive potential for ‘powder keg’ violence. Panic at airport; undisciplined Talibs fire into the perimeter; green-on-blue from ANSF realizing they’re to be abandoned.

Most likely: Continued semi-orderly air movement out within the perimeter, pandemonium at the perimeter, until just the rearguard is left. No idea how that the. goes, but if the Taliban let it get to this point they’re probably playing ball.

Most dangerous: Either a large aircraft fired on and disabled on the runway, or the Taliban communicate and demonstrate their ability to do so, closing the airport to outbound as leverage for a negotiated surrender/retreat.

This is some of the most dismal shit I’ve seen in my life. My heart is breaking for those on the ground.


----------



## MilEME09

If the taliban force the airport closed, there is only two ways this would go down, the west launches an offensive operation to clear the surrounding area to reopen the airport, or they negotiate. It will depend on what forces are on the ground, if the US and UK have the majority of their battalions already holding the airport, they can fight their way out, if not negotiating might be best.

EDIT: UK MoD is reporting the 16th Air assault brigade is boots on the ground I'm Kabul Airport 30 minutes ago.


----------



## OldSolduer

Fuck. 😖


----------



## brihard

Mercedes Stephenson is also reporting that government sources confirmed to her that the hundred odd former Gurkhas who guarded our embassy were not approved for Canadian government evac, and she referred to “the last flight out”. Not clear if that flight has left yet.


----------



## Infanteer

The Taliban know they have won.  Not sure if they would find any value in engaging western military forces who are trying to leave.


----------



## Chanada

brihard said:


> Mercedes Stephenson is also reporting that government sources confirmed to her that the hundred odd former Gurkhas who guarded our embassy were not approved for Canadian government evac, and she referred to “the last flight out”. Not clear if that flight has left yet.


ThePM would not likely have stated they were “safely on their way home” unless that flight was wheels-up.


----------



## MilEME09

Chanada said:


> ThePM would not likely have stated they were “safely on their way home” unless that flight was wheels-up.


That's for our personal, if we left behind 100 Gurkhas to fend for them selves, that's a national disgrace


----------



## brihard

MilEME09 said:


> That's for our personal, if we left behind 100 Gurkhas to fend for them selves, that's a national disgrace


Let’s not think for a second that Canada calls any of the shots here. The US is deciding what lands and what takes off, and they’re going to be in full scramble to get US / westerners out.


----------



## Remius

MilEME09 said:


> That's for our personal, if we left behind 100 Gurkhas to fend for them selves, that's a national disgrace


Further on her tweet she did mention that the govt was working with the contractor to get them out but that it wouldn’t be on any of the refugee flights


----------



## brihard

Remius said:


> Further on her tweet she did mention that the govt was working with the contractor to get them out but that it wouldn’t be on any of the refugee flights


Yeah, and I put zero stock in that whatsoever. Unless the contractor has access to military flight (not bloody likely), it’s done. That information would have been prior to the closure of the airport to all non-military flights.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

I've read multiple reports that the Taliban March in to the cities has been relatively bloodless.  They appear to have paid off many of the tribes for support and many Government officials simply switched sides.  Apparently Government workers were back to work the very next day in Mazar-e-Sharif and the Taliban told them not to be alarmed and to carry on as if it were business as usual.

I maintain that the US Administration has known for awhile the Taliban were going to be back in power and none of this is a surprise.  There hasn't been an American soldier killed in Afghanistan in almost a year and a half and that's no coincidence.  They made a deal with them, they just will never admit it publicly.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Humphrey Bogart said:


> ... I maintain that the US Administration has known for awhile the Taliban were going to be back in power and none of this is a surprise.  There hasn't been an American soldier killed in Afghanistan in almost a year and a half and that's no coincidence.  They made a deal with them, they just will never admit it publicly.


Well, to feed that _just_ a bit, past management WAS willing to host Taliban on U.S. soil before ... things happened ...


----------



## The Bread Guy

Initial reports from IND media indicate this guy (reportedly a former guest at Club Gitmo) is going to be the next leader of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.  No need to worry, though, according to the attached statement from the Taliban out today (highlights mine) ....


> ... The Mujahideen should pay utmost attention to the treasury, public facilities, government offices, equipment related to government offices, parks, roads, bridges. Al these are the trust and property of the nation; no personal tampering and negligence should be done with them, rather it should be strictly guarded.
> 
> *A**ll those who have previously worked and helped the invaders, or are now standing in the ranks of the corrupt Administration of Kabul, the Islamic Emirate has opened its door for them and have announced for them amnesty. We once again invite them all to come and to serve the nation and the country.*
> 
> The military and civilian personnel who join the ranks of the Islamic Emirate should not be worried because the Islamic Emirate is determined to appoint them in a proper manner as per their abilities and talents to serve their country and nation in the future.
> 
> In areas which are under the control of the Islamic Emirate, people should lead a normal life, especially in the official arena, whether it is educational, healthy, social or cultural. No one should leave their area and country. They shall live a normal life; our nation and country need services, and Afghanistan is our joint home that we will build and serve together ...


Riiiiiiiiiiiiight ....


----------



## MilEME09

Chaos Breaks Out At Kabul Airport, Gates Breached
					

Multiple video clips out of Afghanistan demonstrate the chaos currently unfolding at Kabul International Airport as the US and other Western ISAF entities attempt to rapidly evacuate the country that has just fallen to the Taliban.




					funker530.com
				




Like Saigon before it, desperate civilians storm the gates of Kabul international Airport to try and get one of the military flights.

Meanwhile the US as approved an increase to 6k troops to move into Afghanistan but its probably to late.


----------



## Good2Golf

Humphrey Bogart said:


> I maintain that the US Administration has known for awhile the Taliban were going to be back in power and none of this is a surprise.  There hasn't been an American soldier killed in Afghanistan in almost a year and a half and that's no coincidence.  They made a deal with them, they just will never admit it publicly.


Yup.  It isn’t a coincidence.  That said, the original 2001 premise no longer exists, so from their POV, one could easily consider that collateral value to Afghans in the interceding period was a bonus, but not critical to American Interests.


----------



## PuckChaser

MilEME09 said:


> Meanwhile the US as approved an increase to 6k troops to move into Afghanistan but its probably to late.


Its almost like pulling out this quickly was a bad idea. Who wants to bet US troop levels will be back very shortly to the level they were before the withdrawal was announced?


----------



## Altair

PuckChaser said:


> Its almost like pulling out this quickly was a bad idea. Who wants to bet US troop levels will be back very shortly to the level they were before the withdrawal was announced?


It will be, until everyone they care to get out is out, then it will quickly be zero*.

*not accounting for those off the books types who do the stuff nobody hears about


----------



## brihard

RCH871, a USAF C17, got out of Kabul a couple hours ago and tanked from a KC135 over Kandahar or thereabouts. It went feet wet over the Gulf of Oman a little while ago, transponder went back on. There’s an audio capture of ATC querying the plane... 800 souls on board. Not comfortable, but nuts to butts it’s possible.





__





						SoundCloud - Hear the world’s sounds
					

Explore the largest community of artists, bands, podcasters and creators of music & audio




					m.soundcloud.com
				




Two US Hercs landed a few hours ago. A British Globemaster is on the way in presently, and I saw at least three aerial refuellers blip off transponder maps eastbound over the Gulf of Oman. The op is still moving. Live flight trackers are capturing most of the back and forth over the emirates, though my understanding is that if planes are flying formation only one has to squawk.

The open source stuff available on this is really interesting.


----------



## PuckChaser

brihard said:


> RCH871, a USAF C17, got out of Kabul a couple hours ago and tanked from a KC135 over Kandahar or thereabouts. It went feet wet over the Gulf of Oman a little while ago, transponder went back on. There’s an audio capture of ATC querying the plane... 800 souls on board. Not comfortable, but nuts to butts it’s possible.


RCAF Loadmasters everywhere would have a stroke if they read that statement.


----------



## dapaterson

Assuming 200 pounds per person, that's inside the load limit of 170,900lbs.









						Boeing C-17 Globemaster III - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Put a fork in it









						Afghan government collapses as Taliban occupy presidential palace
					

President Ghani flees, while American diplomats move to airport




					asia.nikkei.com
				




KABUL (Reuters) -- Taliban insurgents entered Kabul on Sunday and President Ashraf Ghani left Afghanistan saying he wanted to avoid bloodshed, bringing the Islamist militants close to taking over the country two decades after they were overthrown by a U.S.-led invasion.

As night fell, local television 1TV reported that multiple explosions were heard in the city, which had been largely quiet earlier in the day. It said gunfire could be heard near the airport, where foreign diplomats, officials and other Afghans fled seeking to leave the country.

Aid group Emergency said 80 wounded people had been brought to its hospital in Kabul, which was at capacity, and that it had restricted admission to people with life-threatening injuries.

It was not yet clear where Ghani was headed or how exactly power would be transferred following the Taliban's lightning sweep in recent weeks across Afghanistan. Their advance accelerated as U.S. and other foreign troops withdrew in line with President Joe Biden's desire to end America's longest war, launched after the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks.

Insurgents entered the presidential palace and took control of it, two senior Taliban commanders in Kabul said. Al Jazeera television later showed footage of what it said were Taliban commanders in the palace with dozens of armed fighters.

The Taliban also said they had taken control of most of the districts around the outskirts of the capital.

In a post on Facebook, Ghani said he had left the country to avoid bloodshed and clashes with the Taliban that would endanger millions of residents of Kabul. He did not say where he was.


----------



## Altair

Ghani left, but hamid karzai stayed behind.

Best of luck to Karzai


----------



## dimsum

PuckChaser said:


> RCAF Loadmasters everywhere would have a stroke if they read that statement.


Or say "oh yeah?  Watch this!"

This has been heartbreaking.  I purposely took a lot of walks outside today so I wouldn't be fixated on the news.


----------



## brihard

dimsum said:


> Or say "oh yeah?  Watch this!"
> 
> This has been heartbreaking.  I purposely took a lot of walks outside today so I wouldn't be fixated on the news.


I should have done that...


----------



## OldSolduer

Troops there are no words to describe what I’m feeling. I don’t know what or how to feel. Part of me is sad, part really pissed off and part of me thinks this was a total waste of lives.


----------



## daftandbarmy

And that's all she wrote...


Taliban says Afghanistan war over as president flees: Live​More than 60 countries call for safe departure of Afghans and foreigners as Taliban takes over Kabul’s presidential palace.

The Taliban has declared the war in Afghanistan over after its fighters swept into the capital, Kabul, and President Ashraf Ghani fled the country.

Panic and fear gripped Kabul on Monday as heavily armed Taliban fighters took control of the abandoned presidential palace and Western nations scrambled to evacuate their citizens. Hundreds of Afghans desperate to leave the country also flooded the Kabul airport.

A spokesman for Taliban’s political office told Al Jazeera the group did not want to live in isolation and said the type and form of the new government in Afghanistan would be made clear soon.

Mohammad Naeem also called for peaceful international relations.

“Thanks to God, the war is over in the country,” he said.

“We have reached what we were seeking, which is the freedom of our country and the independence of our people,” he added. “We will not allow anyone to use our lands to target anyone, and we do not want to harm others.”










						Biden defends Afghanistan pullout amid airport chaos
					

Defiant US president says he “stands squarely” behind withdrawal after 20 years in the country.




					www.aljazeera.com


----------



## Infanteer

A little premature.  I've seen news that Dostum is gathering forces.  Northern Alliance redux could make this civil war carry on.


----------



## Remius

The biggest fail right now is a POTUS a who has yet to address any of this.


----------



## dimsum

Infanteer said:


> A little premature.  I've seen news that Dostum is gathering forces.  Northern Alliance redux could make this civil war carry on.


----------



## OldSolduer

Remius said:


> The biggest fail right now is a POTUS a who has yet to address any of this.


Him and his fellow "leader" who just called an election.


----------



## dimsum

OldSolduer said:


> Him and his fellow "leader" who just called an election.


Unpopular opinion:

If I were the PM, what options do I have?  I can send more troops in (hugely unpopular), get the embassy staff out (less unpopular but required), or do nothing.  The staff have to GTFO regardless, and things were (are) getting worse by the hour.  

Unless it's the same staff that manage this OP and the election, why wouldn't I call it?  If the govt pulls it off, it's yet another win for the LPC.  If not, it was "doomed to failure" and shared between govts of both parties reaching back to Chretien.

Maybe I'm completely off-base, but if I was being completely objective as a politician, that's what I'd do.


----------



## brihard

Really ugly stuff overnight... The tarmac got swarmed. There’s video of a C17 taxiing and taking off with people clinging to it. It’s unclear this morning what the situation on the ground at the airport is and if they’ve been able to clear the ramp adequately for flight operations.


----------



## Remius

OldSolduer said:


> Him and his fellow "leader" who just called an election.


As much as I would like to blame him I think this is mostly out of his control.  This withdrawal was happening and from all accounts may have been blindsided like many others.


----------



## Jarnhamar

brihard said:


> The tarmac got swarmed. There’s video of a C17 taxiing and taking off with people clinging to it.



4.3 million people in Kabul. If they picked up guns or sticks they could swarm and club the Taliban to death.

Edit: just seen the video you're talking about, pretty heart wrenching stuff.
People are so desperate they clung to the plane as it flew away, couple people fell off a couple  hundred feet in the air.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Remius said:


> As much as I would like to blame him I think this is mostly out of his control.  This withdrawal was happening and from all accounts may have been blindsided like many others.


Not as if Canada and the U.S. were the only ones taken by surprise.



OldSolduer said:


> Troops there are no words to describe what I’m feeling. I don’t know what or how to feel. Part of me is sad, part really pissed off and part of me thinks this was *a total waste of lives.*


I can't possibly have an opinion on this informed even _close_ to the same way yours is, or have much to say that can help you & others deal with the sadness/anger you're feeling, but I've thought about this a bit the past couple of days.

No matter what any of the politicians have said over the years, a big part of the job was covering an ally's back to give them a chance to let people help them get their act together to better defend themselves.  Just because (at the very least) they didn't take maximum advantage of the opportunity they were given doesn't make the sacrifices any less worthwhile while the job was being done.

Some say giving a panhandler some money is a waste because they may misuse it.  Others say giving a panhandler some money is a generous gesture no matter what happens to the money.  To me, it's no less generous and honourable to give the money even if the panhandler squanders it.  It's the giver's intent & what's in the giver's heart that matters.  

The panhandler dropped the ball, *not* those trying to help, no matter what the outcome.

If you've been there, done that at some point, or lost someone in the years of this fight, know that the effort & sacrifice DID make a difference, no matter what's happening _now_. Who can know which young man or woman, who had a chance to go to school sometime in the past 20 years or so, may make it to a refugee camp and make a difference down the road?

Just one fat old civilian taxpayer's take, with thanks to all who worked hard & sacrificed to help over there


----------



## Jarnhamar

Remius said:


> As much as I would like to blame him I think this is mostly out of his control.  This withdrawal was happening and from all accounts may have been blindsided like many others.


Is there an intelligence version of the WHO people have been listening to?


And with Biden it's probably safer he doesn't say anything. If he opens his mouth he'll probably talk about man jammies and cerial for supper in Afghanistan.


----------



## CBH99

daftandbarmy said:


> Oh hell yeah... that's a drop in the ocean because anyone who doesn't want their heads chopped off will be trying to kill westerners to prove their loyalty...
> 
> Former CENTCOM commander says US 'may have underestimated' Taliban's 'planning capabilities'​
> The Taliban’s successful military operations this week may have come because the United States “underestimated” the group’s “planning capabilities,” according to one former CENTCOM commander.
> 
> Former U.S. CENTCOM commander Gen. Joseph Votel told the Washington Examiner in an interview that he has been “very, very surprised” by the “speed” with which the Taliban has captured 14 of Afghanistan's 34 provincial capitals as well as Kandahar and Herat.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Former CENTCOM commander says US 'may have underestimated' Taliban's 'planning capabilities'
> 
> 
> The Taliban’s successful military operations this week may have come because the United States “underestimated” the group’s “planning capabilities,” according to one former CENTCOM commander.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> news.yahoo.com


That's a good point D&B, I hadn't thought of that before.

I think we all underestimated just how quickly the Taliban swept across the country.  I had assumed the Taliban would fight for an eventual comeback, and that it would lead to a drawn out conflict between ANSF and the Taliban.  I didn't think the Taliban would essentially be retaking a province a day.


Jarnhamar said:


> [
> 
> 4.3 million people in Kabul. If they picked up guns or sticks they could swarm and club the Taliban to death.


there isn’t a lack of guns either.  

When we would go from village to village on patrol during my 2nd tour — most of the houses had one or two AK-47s and a few mags of ammo.  Legally they were allowed to have one rifle per house, but in villages that were clearly friendly to us, we didn’t mention anything if they had more than 1.  

If the people truly revolted, and could clearly identify who was Taliban and who wasnt, they could take their city back.  Decisively.  Very much so.

But the fear the Afghans have of the Taliban right now is palpable.  Just look at the massive crowds swarming the airfield.  They don’t have the communication, coordination, or anyone brave enough to step up and lead such a revolt.  And it would depend on them trusting that everybody would do it, because if some do and some end up not showing up - the consequences are guaranteed.  

We wouldn’t even need the 6500+ troops, plus SOF and contractors, to defend the airfield or set up a corridor where aircraft wouldn’t be fired at with small arms…the massive crowd has been a moat of sorts.  The video and media thus far has been absolutely insane.  

I fear the Taliban will either…

a) attempt to show forgiveness and tolerance to the general population, and offer words of reassurance.  This will help ease the tension as they solidify themselves in even deeper as the government in charge.  (Minus those who worked for the west)

b) be extremely busy with public executions on one hand, and making an example out of others with their other hand.  (Schools, stores, harsh punishments for minor infractions, etc)


No words right now.  Just watching with a sad heart, pit in my stomach, and open jaw.

I actually teared up a few times over the last few days, as I watch the news and gather info from various & other sources.  I was remembering the laughs and jokes around the FOB at night, the deeper conversations we had, the talks about what it was like growing up with the Taliban in charge and what these men wanted for their families in the future.  To be safe, for his kids to be educated, and to just not have to live in fear.  That was it.  We would joke that we would get him a job as soon as he arrived, and eventually the running joke was that he was the future manager of our local McDonald’s.  He was so genuinely excited for that, I think that ended up being he visualized his dream.)

They were good people, who genuinely did extreme  or valuable work for us, and just wanted a life free of violence and fear.  That was all they really wanted in the end.  They were with us ducking behind walls in TICs, helping us fill sandbags when was time to replace a few, and would run to someone if they were hurt or down.  (I rolled my ankle pretty badly once in this stupid little rut in the dirt, on a route we walked quite often.  It felt extremely broken.  It was our terp who caught me before I rolled even further outside of the ‘marked safe’ pathway we had, and grabbed some of my kit without me even asking & grabbed my belt to support me as I hobbled along to a point where I could sit and check it out.)

Thinking of all those chats, talks, memories of FOB life and random things on patrol, and how genuinely helpful he was with local villagers and such…the thought of him hiding under a floor, terrified that every noise or loud voice was the Taliban coming for him or his family, it just makes me feel so angry, heartbroken, yet also empty at the same time.  Prior to this last month, I had assumed our helpers had been moved here YEARS ago, as we agreed on.)


Anyways.  Just sitting here watching with everybody else.  No words really, because there isn’t a point…


For those who deployed, or lost colleagues, friends, sons or daughters, moms or dads, etc - I don’t know what I can say that will help.  It will sound superficial regardless.  But stay strong, whatever that looks like.  🙏🏻

If you are married to someone who deployed at one point or another, please just give them space to be pissed off.  It’s not as simple as “Well you did what you could, this isn’t your fault, this isn’t your problem.”  


It’s Monday morning.  Stay safe & be good people my friends, it’s a new week.


----------



## The Bread Guy

And a heaping helping of irony in the midst of the madness, from Chinese state media: 

*"China respects Afghans’ choice, expects Taliban to keep its words of establishing inclusive govt" *

(text of full article attached to avoid including a link to CHN servers - post edited to add a link to an archived version of the article)


----------



## SeaKingTacco

The Bread Guy said:


> And a heaping helping of irony in the midst of the madness, from Chinese state media:
> 
> *"China respects Afghans’ choice, expects Taliban to keep its words of establishing inclusive govt" *
> 
> (text of full article attached to avoid including a link to CHN servers)


Afghan’s choice?

Well, I suppose “surrender” or “public execution” are choices…


----------



## The Bread Guy

SeaKingTacco said:


> Afghan’s choice?
> 
> Well, I suppose “surrender” or “public execution” are choices…


... in the same way that one person's "concentration camp" is another's "re-education & skills training facility" ....


----------



## brihard

Anyone got a feel for what kind of mechanized assets the US has on the ground? At this point I simply can’t see a rearguard making it out by air. C17s were taking off with people literally climbing on them, and that was with a few thousand troops still on the ground. I struggle to imagine a final exit that doesn’t involve a road move to Uzbekistan under the biggest goddamned air cover the world has ever seen.


----------



## The Bread Guy

This tidbit from a BBC report leapt out at me (highlights all mine) ....


> ... (UK Def Min Ben) Wallace said *he had received assurances from the Taliban leadership via a Middle East country that the military part of the airport would be allowed to function*, enabling UK officials and forces to help people leave ...


... as did this RUS state media report (text attached to avoid linking to RUS servers - edited to add archived version here)


> "*The Taliban (outlawed in Russia) has already secured the outside perimeter of the Russian Embassy in Kabul, Russia’s Presidential Envoy for Afghanistan Zamir Kabulov said on Monday.  "They have already placed the outside perimeter of the Russian Embassy in Kabul under protection,"* he said.  "Tomorrow, they will discuss long-term details with the ambassador," Kabulov added.  Zamir Kabulov said that "some staffers of the Russian Embassy in Kabul will be either given paid leaves or evacuated." ..."


----------



## MilEME09

Military News
					

Military News, Military Videos, Military Photos, Military Loans, More...




					popularmilitary.com
				




Gut wrenching that people are trying to hold onto the exterior of aircraft to escape


----------



## brihard

MilEME09 said:


> Military News
> 
> 
> Military News, Military Videos, Military Photos, Military Loans, More...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> popularmilitary.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Gut wrenching that people are trying to hold onto the exterior of aircraft to escape


Yeah. And that’s with a brigade of troops on airfield security. Unless the Taliban themselves provide flight line security, what’s the rearguard gonna look like?


----------



## daftandbarmy

brihard said:


> Yeah. And that’s with a brigade of troops on airfield security. Unless the Taliban themselves provide flight line security, what’s the rearguard gonna look like?


----------



## Infanteer

We're watching airport videos and assuming the entire country is in a panic to leave.  There are also videos of Taliban parades with kids swarming vehicles and throwing rocks at images of politicians.  I'm willing to bet there is a sizable portion of the Afghan population that is happy right now.

The only reason I mention this is that the narrative seems to be that the Taliban are taking over the Afghan people.  Remember, the Taliban are the Afghan people, or at least a segment of them.  In civil wars, there are winners, and there are losers.  What we are witnessing is the sad end of scores being settled when a foreign proxy government falls.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

The Taliban will play nice for a bit, they are smart enough to realize that a win is a huge problem for them, they now have a country to run and no assurance of any revenue. So for the short term they will attempt to look like they can be trusted to run a government. The question is how long can they control the crazies? They have a large swath of uneducated fighters brought up on fundamental Islam who will start enforcing 14th century rules as soon as they can. They won't be as crazy as ISIS, but it's going to really suck for anyone educated. 
When the money runs out will the tribes stay bought? I highly doubt it.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

The myth of Chinese investment in Afghanistan
					

Little evidence that war-torn country is a strategic priority for Beijing




					asia.nikkei.com
				




_None of this is to dismiss China's aid efforts in Afghanistan. The key point is that aid has been limited, with the few substantial achievements tending to be driven by Chinese companies and entrepreneurs operating on their own. Notwithstanding serious and high-level Chinese engagement, the Mes Aynak project remains in limbo, suggesting a limit to how far China wants to force its companies to operate within the country.

Moreover, all of this took place while the country was at least substantially under the command of a government that possessed a degree of international accountability and expertise. While past experience has shown a willingness by Chinese companies to engage with the Taliban, they are certainly not Beijing's preferred choice. The assurances that Chinese investors would need to proceed further will likely take some time to materialize.

The sad truth is that China is a missed economic opportunity for Afghanistan. And there is little chance that the instability that will follow a Taliban takeover is going to change that._


----------



## CBH99

Infanteer said:


> We're watching airport videos and assuming the entire country is in a panic to leave.  There are also videos of Taliban parades with kids swarming vehicles and throwing rocks at images of politicians.  I'm willing to bet there is a sizable portion of the Afghan population that is happy right now.
> 
> The only reason I mention this is that the narrative seems to be that the Taliban are taking over the Afghan people.  Remember, the Taliban are the Afghan people, or at least a segment of them.  In civil wars, there are winners, and there are losers.  What we are witnessing is the sad end of scores being settled when a foreign proxy government falls.


True.  The Taliban are Afghans, and in several parts of the country during the peak of ‘our’ conflict there, they were the more credible and reliable choice if the alternative was ANA or ANP.  

They also took care of their own, and their families, better than the ANA or ANP did.  Some areas were extremely pro Taliban as the Taliban in that area (often operating with individuals who came from those villages) treated the locals decently fair.

I believe the fear is that the Taliban regime overall won’t be the reasonable, somewhat progressive groups commanded by local commanders in some areas.  It will be a swift return to how things used to be, and a long list of individuals to torture & murder, along with their families.  

The masses at the airport show us just how scared people in Kabul are.  In some regions or villages away from the major centres, perhaps many of them feel a breath of relief that ‘the war is over’.  Business will continue more or less like usual.  

But the masses storming the airfield are a good visual representation of how the locals of Kabul are feeling.  And if the Taliban intends to root their power there, the locals will either have to get on board, shut their mouths, or be lashed, tortured, or killed into compliance.  Ugly situation.


----------



## Kirkhill

I seem to recall that there is an inherent North-South divide in Afghanistan and that the Taliban strength was among the Pashtun of the South.  The Northerners, like Doshtum, were the driving force in both opposing the Russians and welcoming the Americans.  The Pashtun were the other side and the Taliban were their champions.

The problem for the North, surely, is that it is a less homogeneous tribal confederacy than the South. 

When we see "Afghans" trying to get out of Kabul, which, as I understand it, is located at the southern edge of northern territory, isn't it likely that it is primarily Northerners we are seeing?  Northerners who have had a decent run while the West footed the bill but made few friends among an ancient enemy that didn't want to become friends.  I seem to recall that it was easier to recruit Northerners to serve in the ANA and ANP than Southerners and that it was often the Northerners that served with the US and its allies in the South.   The South tended to see both the Westerners and the Northerners as invaders.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Colin Parkinson said:


> ... _While past experience has shown a willingness by Chinese companies to engage with the Taliban, they are certainly not Beijing's preferred choice. The assurances that Chinese investors would need to proceed further will likely take some time to materialize ..._


Still, one keeps one's options open, right? (link is to an archive site, showing a recent - 28 July - CHN Foreign Ministry news release)


> On July 28, 2021, State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with the visiting delegation led by head of the Afghan Taliban Political Commission Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar in Tianjin. The heads of the Afghan Taliban's religious council and publicity committee were also on the delegation.
> 
> (...)
> 
> Wang Yi pointed out that the Afghan Taliban is an important military and political force in Afghanistan and is expected to play an important role in the country's peace, reconciliation and reconstruction process. We hope that the Afghan Taliban will put the interests of the country and nation first, hold high the banner of peace talks, set the goal of peace, build a positive image and pursue an inclusive policy. All factions and ethnic groups in Afghanistan should unite as one, truly implement the "Afghan-led and Afghan-owned" principle, push for early substantive results in the peace and reconciliation process, and independently establish a broad and inclusive political structure that suits Afghanistan's national realities ...
> 
> Wang Yi stressed that the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) is an international terrorist organization designated by the UN Security Council that poses a direct threat to China's national security and territorial integrity. Combating the ETIM is a common responsibility for the international community. We hope the Afghan Taliban will make a clean break with all terrorist organizations including the ETIM and resolutely and effectively combat them to remove obstacles, play a positive role and create enabling conditions for security, stability, development and cooperation in the region.
> 
> Baradar expressed appreciation for the opportunity to visit China. He said China has always been a reliable friend of the Afghan people and commended China's just and positive role in Afghanistan's peace and reconciliation process. The Afghan Taliban has the utmost sincerity to work toward and realize peace. It stands ready to work with other parties to establish a political framework in Afghanistan that is broadly-based, inclusive and accepted by the entire Afghan people and to protect human rights, especially the rights of women and children. The Afghan Taliban will never allow any force to use the Afghan territory to engage in acts detrimental to China ...


----------



## CBH99

China supporting the Taliban regime with money, weapons, vehicles, business opportunities, and investment in critical infrastructure, and possibly a “Screw Off Zone” the way the Russians did in both Libya and Syria. 

In return for ‘keep the peace, keep westerners away, and allow Chinese companies access to the trillions of dollars worth of natural resources waiting to be developed.’

China didn’t miss a beat in recognizing them as a legitimate government, and meeting delegations as if they were meeting with any other country.  But Ofcourse why would they miss a beat…very solid ‘hints’ that China has been involved with the Taliban for YEARS now. 

Even if they weren’t, this is a truly golden opportunity for China.  And they didn’t dither in seizing it.


Goes from bad, to worse, to REALLY BAD…to “well that was almost predictable.”


EDIT - construction and investment will go a lot smoother with the Taliban supporting it, rather than trying to blow it up.


----------



## FJAG

Pretty much on point as to where the finger pointing should go:



> Afghanistan Is Your Fault
> 
> 
> The American public now has what it wanted.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.theatlantic.com



🍻


----------



## mariomike

My thoughts are with the families.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

CBH99 said:


> China supporting the Taliban regime with money, weapons, vehicles, business opportunities, and investment in critical infrastructure, and possibly a “Screw Off Zone” the way the Russians did in both Libya and Syria.
> 
> In return for ‘keep the peace, keep westerners away, and allow Chinese companies access to the trillions of dollars worth of natural resources waiting to be developed.’
> 
> China didn’t miss a beat in recognizing them as a legitimate government, and meeting delegations as if they were meeting with any other country.  But Ofcourse why would they miss a beat…very solid ‘hints’ that China has been involved with the Taliban for YEARS now.
> 
> Even if they weren’t, this is a truly golden opportunity for China.  And they didn’t dither in seizing it.
> 
> 
> Goes from bad, to worse, to REALLY BAD…to “well that was almost predictable.”
> 
> 
> EDIT - construction and investment will go a lot smoother with the Taliban supporting it, rather than trying to blow it up.


We will see neither the Taliban or Chinese are known for playing well with others


----------



## MilEME09

PMO, Global Affairs holding off deploying CAF Kabul evacuation team: Sources
					

Civilians are being left to die in Kabul as politicians in Ottawa refuse to give the green light to a ready-to-go evacuation plan




					calgarysun.com
				




Oh boy, perfect for an election campaign...


----------



## Remius

This is going to define Biden’s presidency.  I think it’s going to cost him re election.  Complete underestimation of the Taliban is understandable if your intelligence folks give you bad info.  But being awol for several days and giving lame reasoning and having his words come back to haunt him.  All bad.


----------



## FJAG

Remius said:


> This is going to define Biden’s presidency.  I think it’s going to cost him re election.  Complete underestimation of the Taliban is understandable if your intelligence folks give you bad info.  But being awol for several days and giving lame reasoning and having his words come back to haunt him.  All bad.


So let's see - he sent 6,000 troops there to do the evac; there are USAF planes all over the sky doing the evac; and basically the Afghan government has run away. So what is it exactly were you looking for Biden to do?

I don't doubt that all the Republicans who were wanting out of Afghanistan for years and who rallied behind Trump when he signed that cockamamie "peace agreement" with the Taliban in February will want this to be Biden's defining moment. But come on, now. What's your solution? How should Biden roll back the last two decades and fix the situation over the weekend?

🤨


----------



## Remius

FJAG said:


> So let's see - he sent 6,000 troops there to do the evac; there are USAF planes all over the sky doing the evac; and basically the Afghan government has run away. So what is it exactly were you looking for Biden to do?
> 
> I don't doubt that all the Republicans who were wanting out of Afghanistan for years and who rallied behind Trump when he signed that cockamamie "peace agreement" with the Taliban in February will want this to be Biden's defining moment. But come on, now. What's your solution? How should Biden roll back the last two decades and fix the situation over the weekend?
> 
> 🤨


You didn’t read what I wrote.  My criticism is him looking bad after making statements and being absent during a crisis. 

here is what he said a month ago.









						Biden’s rosy statements on Afghanistan, Covid have come back to haunt him
					

First Read is your briefing from "Meet the Press" and the NBC Political Unit on the day's most important political stories and why they matter.




					www.nbcnews.com
				




He waited 3 days before cutting his vacation short?  

His words are coming back to haunt him now.  That’s on him.  His administration look completely disorganized trying to manage this.

the last three administrations share the blame for all of this sure but he’s the guy in charge right now.  And he doesn't look very good right now.   And it isn’t just republicans and the right wing media saying that.


----------



## dimsum

Remius said:


> This is going to define Biden’s presidency.  I think it’s going to cost him re election.  Complete underestimation of the Taliban is understandable if your intelligence folks give you bad info.  But being awol for several days and giving lame reasoning and having his words come back to haunt him.  All bad.


It's been what, 7 months into his presidency?  I'm sure something in the next 3.5 years will overtake this.  

Also, as FJAG said, WTF did you expect Biden to do once Trump signed the agreement?


----------



## Remius

dimsum said:


> It's been what, 7 months into his presidency?  I'm sure something in the next 3.5 years will overtake this.
> 
> Also, as FJAG said, WTF did you expect Biden to do once Trump signed the agreement?


None of that excuses him being MIA for 3 days.  Nor does it change the fact that his words a month ago are being used against him.  We’ll see how the mid terms go.  

it has nothing to do with what he inherited.  I get that. But does he look good right now?  Even CNN is all over his performance during this mess.   I watched his people today at the presser and they all, looked like they were tap dancing.

I guess time will tell.


----------



## Altair

The American public backed the pullout, something like 70 percent of Americans wanted out.

I'm not sure they wanted out looking like Saigon 1975, so I'm sure that level of supports drops a bit, but the sentiment behind leaving is still solid. 

And bipartisan,  the Republicans under Trump wanted out as well.


----------



## Jarnhamar

dimsum said:


> Also, as FJAG said, WTF did you expect Biden to do once Trump signed the agreement?


Fill the "evacuation" planes with paratroopers and tweet "surprise c**kbags" at H-hour.


----------



## Kilted

Altair said:


> The American public backed the pullout, something like 70 percent of Americans wanted out.
> 
> I'm not sure they wanted out looking like Saigon 1975, so I'm sure that level of supports drops a bit, but the sentiment behind leaving is still solid.
> 
> And bipartisan,  the Republicans under Trump wanted out as well.


I don't think that any of them expected Afghanistan to fall faster than France did in WWII.


----------



## Remius

Altair said:


> The American public backed the pullout, something like 70 percent of Americans wanted out.
> 
> I'm not sure they wanted out looking like Saigon 1975, so I'm sure that level of supports drops a bit, but the sentiment behind leaving is still solid.
> 
> And bipartisan,  the Republicans under Trump wanted out as well.


Yes it goes back to Obama,  but remember when Bush said mission accomplished?  What Biden said a month ago in contrast to what is happening now is going to be the same thing.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Jarnhamar said:


> Fill the "evacuation" planes with paratroopers and tweet "surprise c**kbags" at H-hour.



My hand is up over here...


----------



## Altair

Kilted said:


> I don't think that any of them expected Afghanistan to fall faster than France did in WWII.


Very true. 

This will go down as one of the greatest Intel failures in modern history.

If Biden knew this was coming I doubt he would have waited until Kabul was surrounded to start evacuating. This goes for all western leaders currently scrambling to get people out.


----------



## Altair

Remius said:


> Yes it goes back to Obama,  but remember when Bush said mission accomplished?  What Biden said a month ago in contrast to what is happening now is going to be the same thing.


If there is anything in Bidens favor it's that this is happening now. Lots of time for things to happen between now and next election.

Also, he's old. Just saying.


----------



## Remius

Altair said:


> If there is anything in Bidens favor it's that this is happening now. Lots of time for things to happen between now and next election.
> 
> Also, he's old. Just saying.


True.  But the mid terms are coming and he has other things that are derailing.









						August turns into a month of crises as Biden stares down a pivotal moment in his presidency
					

President Joe Biden is facing multiple August crises with Afghanistan on the verge of collapse, Covid-19 patients overwhelming hospitals in some states, persistent inflation concerns, an uncertain path forward for his sweeping infrastructure agenda and surging attempted border crossings.




					www.cnn.com


----------



## Altair

Remius said:


> True.  But the mid terms are coming and he has other things that are derailing.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> August turns into a month of crises as Biden stares down a pivotal moment in his presidency
> 
> 
> President Joe Biden is facing multiple August crises with Afghanistan on the verge of collapse, Covid-19 patients overwhelming hospitals in some states, persistent inflation concerns, an uncertain path forward for his sweeping infrastructure agenda and surging attempted border crossings.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnn.com


This is fair. I would say more, but I think the least the Afghans deserve now is a thread not derailed by American (OR CANADIAN)politics.


----------



## suffolkowner

Afghanistan, Pakistan, and China









						After the fall of Kabul, what’s next for Afghanistan? | The Strategist
					

After their rapid victory in Afghanistan, do the Taliban have the capacity to govern and keep unified control? David Kilcullen, professor of international and political studies at the Australian Defence Force Academy, says the Taliban ...




					www.aspistrategist.org.au
				




Counting on the Pashtuns to counter the Uyghur's is a strategy that I hope backfires on China just like Pakistan riling up Afghanistans Pashtuns while hoping their own stay under control looks dangerous too me as well









						Afghanistan and Pakistan Ethnic Groups | National Geographic Society
					

An ethnolinguistic map of showing different language and cultural groups across Afghanistan and Pakistan.




					www.nationalgeographic.org


----------



## Brad Sallows

> Also, as FJAG said, WTF did you expect Biden to do once Trump signed the agreement?



Spent his first few weeks overturning almost everything else Trump did.  Why not this?  What made Trump's agreement more inviolable than, for example, Obama's deal with Iran?



> How should Biden roll back the last two decades and fix the situation over the weekend?



He's the president of the US.  So far, he's waited a few days, then given a 10 minute speech and gone back to his vacation.  Not sure how the preceding two decades required him (or more likely, his close staff) to set such a f*ck up in motion.

Gonna enjoy watching some people try and put lipstick on this.  Most seem to be trying to pretend that the decision to leave, and the decision to leave in disorder, all had to be one package.


----------



## dapaterson

For those of us of a certain age, the "Afghan Girl" was a defining image of the 1980s in Afghanistan.  Years later, the photographer who took the original picture found her.  Her answer to a simple question reveals some of the challenge the west faced.



> Had she ever felt safe?
> 
> "No. But life under the Taliban was better. At least there was peace and order."














						A Life Revealed - National Geographic Magazine
					

Seventeen years after she stared out from the cover of National Geographic, a former Afghan refugee comes face-to-face with the world once more.



					web.archive.org


----------



## Brad Sallows

I suppose she experienced it differently than some.


----------



## Jarnhamar

I read in an interview with her that the National Geographic photographer pretty much forced her to show her face for the picture despite her objections and fears that she would get in trouble for showing her face.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Short & sweet explaining a quick Taliban victory/ANA defeat, via an academic/think tanker in Singapore:

_"... widespread corruption in Afghanistan’s defence and interior ministries ..._
_... the embezzlement and corruption undermined morale within the ranks of the army..._
_... no ideological cohesion within the army or a sense of national duty and belonging_
_continuous political interference and reshuffling of office holders as high as interior and defence ministers, governors and police chiefs also affected the ANDSF’s battlefield performance ..._
_... the Taliban’s smart military strategy of taking control of major border crossings, main highways and besieging the big cities crippled Kabul’s ability to send reinforcements and supplies ..._
_... despite receiving years of training and billions of dollars worth of equipment, the ANDSF never developed the capacity to stand on its own ..."_


----------



## MilEME09

Honestly we need to stop forcing our brand of democracy on everyone. Focus more on the human rights, etc... Afghanistan corruption doomed them as much as it screwed Ukraine in 2014, even more so actually. It is also a country of no national unity or identity. I could throw ideas and what it's all day but they failed them selves because we essentially turned a blind eye to a hell of a lot of corruption.


----------



## Kilted

Jarnhamar said:


> I read in an interview with her that the National Geographic photographer pretty much forced her to show her face for the picture despite her objections and fears that she would get in trouble for showing her face.


I guess it happens from time to time.


----------



## Jarnhamar

Kilted said:


> I guess it happens from time to time.


Looks like me dealing with problems at work.


----------



## Kirkhill

> The fall of Kabul is a major disaster.
> 
> ...It is a major disaster, in particular, for the tens of thousands of Afghans who helped *Western journalists* and diplomats in an attempt to build a better country,...





			So Much for a ‘Foreign Policy for the Middle Class’
		



And thereby hangs a tale

Western journalists ... attempt to build a better country

The Bully Pulpit indeed.


And they wonder why their congregations are quitting them.


----------



## Jarnhamar

https://preview.redd.it/j042gae4zxh71.gif?format=mp4&s=e7c855d729eb0095afe53bcfa408fef784aabcc7
		


Women allegedly protesting in Afghanistan


----------



## The Bread Guy

Jarnhamar said:


> https://preview.redd.it/j042gae4zxh71.gif?format=mp4&s=e7c855d729eb0095afe53bcfa408fef784aabcc7
> 
> 
> 
> Women allegedly protesting in Afghanistan


For now ...


----------



## OldSolduer

The Bread Guy said:


> For now ...


Til the “journalists “ all depart. Fuck


----------



## The Bread Guy

OldSolduer said:


> Til the “journalists “ all depart. Fuck


Until people outside AFG stop G'ing AF   #NextShinyThing


----------



## OldSolduer

The Bread Guy said:


> Until people outside AFG stop G'ing AF   #NextShinyThing


Which is in about five days.


----------



## Infanteer

Interesting, and expected if true.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Jarnhamar said:


> https://preview.redd.it/j042gae4zxh71.gif?format=mp4&s=e7c855d729eb0095afe53bcfa408fef784aabcc7
> 
> 
> 
> Women allegedly protesting in Afghanistan


While the leadership appears to be smarter than last time, a lot of their rank and file are uneducated farm boys, who won't have much patience for "uppity city girls" being immoral and I doubt the leadership can contain their stupidity for long enough to make it look like a peaceful transfer.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Hopefully they try flying them after reading the instruction book The Taliban Air Force - An Inventory Assessment


----------



## The Bread Guy

Infanteer said:


> Interesting, and expected if true.


More on that from IND media:


> Amid a complete takeover of Afghanistan by the Taliban, a resistance force, led by Ahmad Massoud, son of late Afghan politician Ahmad Shah Massoud, is reportedly gathering strength in Panjshir Valley. The flag of the ‘Northern Alliance’ or the United Islamic Front for the Salvation of Afghanista has been hoisted for the time since 2001 in Panjshir valley.
> 
> (...)
> 
> Afghan soldiers, who had managed to hide themselves from Taliban troops, are also apparently beginning to arrive in Panjshir at the call of Ahmad Massoud, the Twitter user shared in another post ...


----------



## TangoTwoBravo

Infanteer said:


> Interesting, and expected if true.


I imagine that former Northern Alliance power brokers have been consolidating their strength over the past months. Protect their vital ground as they saw the way that things were going. I imagine that the sudden evacuation of Bagram was a stimulus. Avoid wasting their strength in a losing fight for Kabul.


----------



## Infanteer

I saw elsewhere that Ahmed Massoud was already in India shoring up support.  The Great Game continues....


----------



## Altair

The Bread Guy said:


> More on that from IND media:


Called it.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

As my friend aptly pointed out, the aircrew of the C17's are likley going to be going through some serious PTSD from people falling off their planes and forced to say sorry to those left behind.


----------



## Weinie

Infanteer said:


> I saw elsewhere that Ahmed Massoud was already in India shoring up support.  The Great Game continues....


Except that this time around, the Taliban have access to the entire armoury that the US left behind, or captured from the ANSF. If they use it wisely, and Massoud has nobody shoring him up, massing Taliban forces in the North will lead to a quick capitulation, or 25 more years of civil war.


----------



## Altair

Weinie said:


> Except that this time around, the Taliban have access to the entire armoury that the US left behind, or captured from the ANSF. If they use it wisely, and Massoud has nobody shoring him up, massing Taliban forces in the North will lead to a quick capitulation, or 25 more years of civil war.


The best strongest military on the planet couldn't fully pacify that nation, I don't think the Taliban with the leftovers from the ANSF will have much better luck in the long run.


----------



## Jarnhamar

Altair said:


> The best strongest military on the planet couldn't fully pacify that nation, I don't think the Taliban with the leftovers from the ANSF will have much better luck in the long run.


The Taliban have a different set of rules of engagement than the US.


----------



## Altair

Jarnhamar said:


> The Taliban have a different set of rules of engagement than the US.


So did the russians, and the taliban after them, and yet that country continued to fracture time after time.

A mix of ethnic differences, tribal loyalties, and geography tends to make the region impossible to rule.


----------



## Infanteer

Weinie said:


> Except that this time around, the Taliban have access to the entire armoury that the US left behind, or captured from the ANSF. If they use it wisely, and Massoud has nobody shoring him up, massing Taliban forces in the North will lead to a quick capitulation, or 25 more years of civil war.



I'm not sure a stack of M4s and some Humvees will tip the balance....


----------



## dimsum

Infanteer said:


> I'm not sure a stack of M4s and some Humvees will tip the balance....


With what fuel?


----------



## OldSolduer

dimsum said:


> With what fuel?


Gotta have armorers and vehicle techs.


----------



## Kilted

Altair said:


> So did the russians, and the taliban after them, and yet that country continued to fracture time after time.
> 
> A mix of ethnic differences, tribal loyalties, and geography tends to make the region impossible to rule.


Maybe perhaps breaking Afganistan into a couple of different countries would have been a better idea.


----------



## MilEME09

Kilted said:


> Maybe perhaps breaking Afganistan into a couple of different countries would have been a better idea.


Or have the ANA structured like the USNG, provincial armies instead of a national one. They would of been more likely to stand and fight if it was for their clan.


----------



## Altair

Kilted said:


> Maybe perhaps breaking Afganistan into a couple of different countries would have been a better idea.


you're right, until you see how the ethnic breakdown of the region is. Everything is fine until you notice half the Pashtun population/territory lies in Pakistan.  

You have independent Pashtun Afghanistan and suddenly Pashtun Pakistan will want to join it. 

One of the reasons Pakistan will never let it happen.


----------



## Brad Sallows

> Massoud has nobody shoring him up



Well.  There's an opportunity.


----------



## Kilted

Altair said:


> you're right, until you see how the ethnic breakdown of the region is. Everything is fine until you notice half the Pashtun population/territory lies in Pakistan.
> 
> You have independent Pashtun Afghanistan and suddenly Pashtun Pakistan will want to join it.
> 
> One of the reasons Pakistan will never let it happen.


You would have to get creative with it, it wouldn't be perfect. Perhaps some areas could groups could join their parent country, Ubeckistan for example.


----------



## Altair

Kilted said:


> You would have to get creative with it, it wouldn't be perfect. Perhaps some areas could groups could join their parent country, Ubeckistan for example.


At what point would making new arbitrary lines on a map cause as many problems as you are trying to solve?


----------



## Bruce Monkhouse

Good for MSNBC for putting this guy on....   This Afghanistan vet just went nuclear on MSNBC, live, as they tried to defend Biden, and it’s a must-watch


----------



## FJAG

MilEME09 said:


> Or have the ANA structured like the USNG, provincial armies instead of a national one. They would of been more likely to stand and fight if it was for their clan.


That's what the Afghan Militia Force (or Afghan Military Forces  depending on which book you read) was in 2003 when we started dismantling it in favour of a "national security force" so that the militia and their regional leaders would not threaten the national government. As we disarmed them in 2003-4 they turned in all their tanks, FROGs, SCUDs and BM 31s. We gave them back a handful of D 30s.

Hindsight's 20/20 and a bitch.

🍻


----------



## Jarnhamar

Afghanistan: Taliban confiscating weapons from civilians because they ‘no longer need them’








						Taliban confiscating weapons from civilians because they ‘no longer need them’
					

Arms taken away as people risk lives to flee new regime




					www.independent.co.uk
				





Look at one of the first things POS government's do.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Jarnhamar said:


> Afghanistan: Taliban confiscating weapons from civilians because they ‘no longer need them’
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Taliban confiscating weapons from civilians because they ‘no longer need them’
> 
> 
> Arms taken away as people risk lives to flee new regime
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.independent.co.uk
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Look at one of the first things POS government's do.


I am so bringing that up in the next candidate meeting: "So guess what the LPC and the Taliban have in common"


----------



## SeaKingTacco

Bruce Monkhouse said:


> Good for MSNBC for putting this guy on....   This Afghanistan vet just went nuclear on MSNBC, live, as they tried to defend Biden, and it’s a must-watch


That is one, epic, bollocking.

That dude did not breathe for like 4 minutes, straight.


----------



## MilEME09

Another angle, South Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, all collapsed from the west pulling out even though we invested a lot into training. The common theme is corruption. If we fail to stamp it out, all other efforts are doomed to fail.


----------



## SeaKingTacco

MilEME09 said:


> Another angle, South Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, all collapsed from the west pulling out even though we invested a lot into training. The common theme is corruption. If we fail to stamp it out, all other efforts are doomed to fail.


Stamp out corruption, how?

I hear people say that alot, as if it is self evident.


----------



## daftandbarmy

MilEME09 said:


> Another angle, South Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, all collapsed from the west pulling out even though we invested a lot into training. The common theme is *corruption*. If we fail to stamp it out, all other efforts are doomed to fail.



Corruption amongst the 'saviours' or the 'saved'?


----------



## Altair

daftandbarmy said:


> Corruption amongst the 'saviours' or the 'saved'?


Yes.


----------



## CBH99

SeaKingTacco said:


> Stamp out corruption, how?
> 
> I hear people say that alot, as if it is self evident.


When dealing with a situation like Afghanistan, or “nation building” - I don’t think we can stamp it out.  Not entirely anyway.  

If the corruption is happening with officials of the country we are trying to assist, they aren’t subject to our laws.  And most of the time it’s politicians & senior security officials pocketing some $$ - can’t see them charging themselves.  

If we track every cent, it is cumbersome and slow.  Nothing gets done.  The more we streamline things, the more open to abuse it becomes.  


Corruption is just part of the game when it comes to foreign aid & nation building.  We can try to minimize it, but eliminating ir altogether just isn’t going to happen.


----------



## dimsum

SeaKingTacco said:


> That is one, epic, bollocking.
> 
> That dude did not breathe for like 4 minutes, straight.


Honestly, I bet the Afghans (whoever watches world news at least) saw what happened to US support to Kurds and started making plans to GTFO.


----------



## OldSolduer

Kilted said:


> You would have to get creative with it, it wouldn't be perfect. Perhaps some areas could groups could join their parent country, Ubeckistan for example.


How about this?
Leave the Godforsaken place alone and let them sort it out. Just my two cents.


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

MilEME09 said:


> Another angle, South Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, all collapsed from the west pulling out even though we invested a lot into training. The common theme is corruption. If we fail to stamp it out, all other efforts are doomed to fail.


No, what we need to do is stop looking at these issues with Western/North American lenses.  The US could have very easily maintained a presence in Afghanistan indefinitely, other Countries do it and I have no idea why they didn't? France has maintained a presence in Chad since 1975 and has propped up the Chadian Regime several times.  They also have built up and supported the Chadian Army in to a pretty credible and proficient fighting force that doesn't try to be a mirror image of a European Army. 

The irony is the Chadian Regime has had similar issues with corruption, coups, etc that Afghanistan has.  They have been supported through these though and have provided France with a useful ally in the region.  

The Americans are too obsessed with a flawed notion of "winning".  Winning in a war like this isn't what Westerners think of as winning.


----------



## dimsum

Humphrey Bogart said:


> The Americans are too obsessed with a flawed notion of "winning". Winning in a war like this isn't what Westerners think of as winning.


Bingo.  That extends to everything - not just war.  Risking a tangent, everything is about the act of "winning".  

What happens after the winning?


----------



## OldSolduer

dimsum said:


> Bingo.  That extends to everything - not just war.  Risking a tangent, everything is about the act of "winning".
> 
> What happens after the winning?




There is no winning. Everyone has lost here.


----------



## Kirkhill

SeaKingTacco said:


> Stamp out corruption, how?
> 
> I hear people say that alot, as if it is self evident.



Just the same way we have stamped out corruption here in Canada.  Right?

Or is it a case of the social engineers of our society always looking for the next "tabla rasa" on which to create Utopia - convinced that it is possible and that they are the person to do it?


----------



## CBH99

Kirkhill said:


> Just the same way we have stamped out corruption here in Canada.  Right?
> 
> Or is it a case of the social engineers of our society always looking for the next "tabla rasa" on which to create Utopia - convinced that it is possible and that they are the person to do it?


Here in Canada, we at least have the option of charging and prosecuting individuals who are involved in corruption - whether it be government officials, or business executives involved in shady/illegal things.  

(Unless you happen to work for SNC Lavalin, and are so cozy with the powers at be that you can ask them to change a law so you won’t be charged with illegal activities - and instead of telling you to get the f**k out, actually agrees to it.)

^ In theory, corruption can be & should be handled swiftly if discovered here in Canada.  The option is at least there.  


Perhaps it’s best we say that anytime large amounts of money are being paid or transferred between parties - especially between government and charity/foreign aid - someone will find a way to pocket something.  

Minimizing the best we can should be our goal, as it is realistic and helps guide the ‘how’ we help once we have chosen the ‘who’.  

Overall though, it will happen to some extent or another.  Especially when that money is going outside of our borders to a country that isn’t accountable to anybody but itself.


----------



## Kirkhill

CBH99 said:


> Here in Canada, we at least have the option of charging and prosecuting individuals who are involved in corruption - whether it be government officials, or business executives involved in shady/illegal things.
> 
> (Unless you happen to work for SNC Lavalin, and are so cozy with the powers at be that you can ask them to change a law so you won’t be charged with illegal activities - and instead of telling you to get the f**k out, actually agrees to it.)
> 
> ^ In theory, corruption can be & should be handled swiftly if discovered here in Canada.  The option is at least there.
> 
> 
> Perhaps it’s best we say that anytime large amounts of money are being paid or transferred between parties - especially between government and charity/foreign aid - someone will find a way to pocket something.
> 
> Minimizing the best we can should be our goal, as it is realistic and helps guide the ‘how’ we help once we have chosen the ‘who’.
> 
> Overall though, it will happen to some extent or another.  Especially when that money is going outside of our borders to a country that isn’t accountable to anybody but itself.



That's one of the reasons I have become a fan of "the 70% solution".  A net tendency in the right direction is good enough for me.  Perfection isn't worth the aggravation.

In the mean time, from the Wall Street Journal,



> When Quinnipiac asked in a May survey, “*Should we leave Afghanistan?*” 62% of respondents said yes. But what if the question was framed more completely: *“Should we leave Afghanistan even if it means an increased threat of terrorism to the homeland?*”
> 
> The *“no more endless wars”* position has another blind spot: Its* advocates are unable to distinguish between wasteful nation building and a small residual force that conducts occasional counterterror operations*. As a result, when many Americans hear that there is a single soldier on the ground in Afghanistan, they interpret it to mean “nation building” and “world police.”











						Opinion | The ‘Endless Wars’ Fallacy
					

There are many options between nation building and giving up, and we had found a good one in Afghanistan before President Biden abandoned it.




					www.wsj.com
				




And, in the spirit of the perfection of the rear-view mirror



> May 6, 202112:27 PM MDT  Last Updated 4 months ago
> Asia Pacific​Pentagon chief says removal of all contractors from Afghanistan under way​











						Pentagon chief says removal of all contractors from Afghanistan under way
					

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said on Thursday the process of removing all contractors from Afghanistan working with the United States was under way as part of President Joe Biden's withdrawal of forces from the country.




					www.reuters.com
				






> POLITICS MAY 12, 2021
> The U.S. Is Leaving Afghanistan? Tell That to the Contractors.​American firms capitalize on the withdrawal, moving in with hundreds of new jobs.​





			https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/05/u-s-contractors-in-afghanistan-are-hiring-amid-withdrawal.html
		





> June 6, 2021, 4:00 AM MDT
> 
> *Without U.S. contractors, the Afghan military will lose its main advantage over the Taliban — air power*
> The loss of U.S. contractors could trigger a game-changing shift in the military balance between the Taliban and the Afghan government.











						Afghan forces will be gutted without U.S. contractors to fix planes
					

The loss of U.S. contractors could trigger a game-changing shift in the military balance between the Taliban and the Afghan government.




					www.nbcnews.com
				







> *Published June 19, 2021 Updated June 29, 2021*​Departure of U.S. Contractors Poses Myriad Problems for Afghan Military​It is not just U.S. troops who are withdrawing from Afghanistan. Thousands of private contractors — who help keep the Afghan Air Force flying, among other tasks — are leaving as well.











						Departure of U.S. Contractors Poses Myriad Problems for Afghan Military (Published 2021)
					

It is not just U.S. troops who are withdrawing from Afghanistan. Thousands of private contractors — who help keep the Afghan Air Force flying, among other tasks — are leaving as well.




					www.nytimes.com
				






> Number of Private Contractors in Afghanistan Drops Precipitously as Biden Pushes Withdrawal Plan​The Biden administration appears to be racing toward a full withdrawal of military support with no clear plan in place for how it will back its local allies against a Taliban onslaught.
> 
> By Paul D. Shinkman
> 
> July 21, 2021, at 1:31 p.m.




It's one thing to pull out all the troops.   It's another thing to hobble the government by cutting all its support.


----------



## FJAG

Speaking about corruption - not sure how many of you know this but the US has had an agency conducting reviews of reconstruction activities in Afghanistan called the Office of the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction or SIGAR. One of SIGAR's mandates is the prosecution of war profiteers etc.

Coincidentally with everything going on in Afghanistan at this time, SIGAR has just issued a report of twenty years of lessons learned from Afghanistan reconstruction. It's brutally honest.

An interactive summary of the report is here.

The full report is here.

More than anything else, this report makes it clear that Force 2025 needs to look at two armies: one which is the "just in case" army looking forward and equipped and trained to fight the modern wars of the future that we might very well be engaged in; and one the "everyday" army which is equipped and trained to provide the stabilization and framework for reconstruction efforts that everyone agrees we could do better at and, since we will undoubtedly still deploy on these missions, we need to have for the foreseeable future. 

While the former is trained for high-end full-spectrum missions it could still serve a purpose as additional security forces on stabilization missions for short periods. The latter, however, should be organized and focused on being deployed for the long haul.

🍻


----------



## Jarnhamar

OldSolduer said:


> There is no winning. Everyone has lost here.


Not being sarcastic when I say this; people who had stock in KBR, DynCorp International, Washington and so on didn't really lose out.

I guess we can argue they might be losing out _now_ because they're losing their golden cows, but they've had 20 years of solid contracts, probably single sourced too.

In 2006 KBR was charging the US Gov over $2 million a day for food alone, just on one base (KAF).


----------



## Brad Sallows

Most corruption can be eliminated by formalizing it, as we have.  On the HR side, make new salary = old salary plus bribes.  On the customer facing side, call the bribes "fees" and fix the rates.


----------



## FJAG

Brad Sallows said:


> Most corruption can be eliminated by formalizing it, as we have.  On the HR side, make new salary = old salary plus bribes.  On the customer facing side, call the bribes "fees" and fix the rates.


 Except in our society the "fees" don't go to salary, they go to the bank's, government offices', telecommunication companies' owner's profit margin in order to increase the executives' year-end bonuses and stock options.

🍻


----------



## Brad Sallows

Money is fungible, and I have government more in mind than private enterprise.

The US supposedly spent $2T (roughly $100B per year), and the GDP of Afghanistan is approximately $20B.

Next time, just run the numbers and decide whether to pay off some of the locals to see off the ones we don't like.  Canada could have footed that whole bill by sacrificing only a little bit.


----------



## OldSolduer

Jarnhamar said:


> Not being sarcastic when I say this; people who had stock in KBR, DynCorp International, Washington and so on didn't really lose out.
> 
> I guess we can argue they might be losing out _now_ because they're losing their golden cows, but they've had 20 years of solid contracts, probably single sourced too.
> 
> In 2006 KBR was charging the US Gov over $2 million a day for food alone, just on one base (KAF).


I know you're no being sarcastic. You are correct - they made tons of $$$ off the backs of 158 soldiers KIA and thousands wounded from our nation.


----------



## MilEME09

Terry Glavin: Afghan leadership retreats with special forces in defiance of the Taliban
					

'The Taliban are not the Taliban of the past. They have changed to become crueler.'




					nationalpost.com
				





And so civil war it is, 10k troops massed north of Kabul


----------



## Altair

MilEME09 said:


> Terry Glavin: Afghan leadership retreats with special forces in defiance of the Taliban
> 
> 
> 'The Taliban are not the Taliban of the past. They have changed to become crueler.'
> 
> 
> 
> 
> nationalpost.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> And so civil war it is, 10k troops massed north of Kabul


Like I said earlier,leaving the fighting aged men with military training alive was a grand strategic blunder on the part of the taliban who will now struggle to hold their gains, dame as anyone who tries to rule Afghanistan


----------



## daftandbarmy

MilEME09 said:


> Terry Glavin: Afghan leadership retreats with special forces in defiance of the Taliban
> 
> 
> 'The Taliban are not the Taliban of the past. They have changed to become crueler.'
> 
> 
> 
> 
> nationalpost.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> And so civil war it is, 10k troops massed north of Kabul



Apparently Ahmed Mahsoud, the son of, is a Sandhurst graduate.

Consequently, his drill should be top notch


----------



## MilEME09

daftandbarmy said:


> Apparently Ahmed Mahsoud, the son of, is a Sandhurst graduate.
> 
> Consequently, his drill should be top notch


So he has studied tactics, and knows Afghanistan, why didn't we hire the guy to run the Ana?


----------



## Altair

MilEME09 said:


> So he has studied tactics, and knows Afghanistan, why didn't we hire the guy to run the Ana?


He knew better.


----------



## Remius

Altair said:


> He knew better.


Or maybe had an OP Honour violation 25 years ago that came back to haunt him so they held him back…


----------



## MilEME09

Remius said:


> Or maybe had an OP Honour violation 25 years ago that came back to haunt him so they held him back…


It's Afghanistan, it probably happened last Thursday


----------



## The Bread Guy

How do you say "Scrooge McDuck" in Pashto?


> The Russian embassy in Kabul alleged Monday that Afghan President Ashraf Ghani has fled from Kabul with four cars and a helicopter full of cash, Russia’s state news agency RIA Novosti reported.
> 
> The report quoted embassy spokesman Nikita Ishchenko as saying that “the collapse of the regime ... is most eloquently characterized by how Ghani escaped from Afghanistan: four cars were filled with money, they tried to shove another part of the money into a helicopter, but not everything fit. And some of the money was left lying on the tarmac.”
> 
> Asked by The Associated Press about how he knew the details of Ghani’s departure, Ishchenko said “well, we are working here,” without offering any more details. The AP couldn’t independently verify his claims ...


Still posting on his FB account, tho - for now, anyway ....


----------



## Good2Golf

Was the cash USD or Yuan?


----------



## daftandbarmy

Round Two, ding ding....


*The mujahideen resistance to the Taliban begins now. But we need help.*


_Ahmad Massoud is the leader of the National Resistance Front of Afghanistan._

In 1998, when I was 9 years old, my father, the mujahideen commander Ahmad Shah Massoud, gathered his soldiers in a cave in the Panjshir Valley of northern Afghanistan. They sat and listened as my father’s friend, French philosopher Bernard-Henri Lévy, addressed them. “When you fight for your freedom,” Lévy said, “you fight also for our freedom.”

 My father never forgot this as he fought against the Taliban regime. Up until the moment he was assassinated on Sept. 9, 2001, at the behest of the Taliban and al-Qaeda, he was fighting for the fate of Afghanistan but also for the West. 
Now this common struggle is more essential than ever in these dark, tense hours for my homeland.

I write from the Panjshir Valley today, ready to follow in my father’s footsteps, with mujahideen fighters who are prepared to once again take on the Taliban. We have stores of ammunition and arms that we have patiently collected since my father’s time, because we knew this day might come.



https://www.washingtonpost.com/opin...ZMSmkWBDvpGX6jDtXNpmo5L3-tv8rLuEcHcWiMuYxTA-U


----------



## Kirkhill

*CNN and David Axelrod are not my preferred sources of information.*​​*However,* ​​Precisely because of that, the net tendency of bias at CNN and the particular position that David Axelrod held in the Obama-Biden administration, I find this article particularly insightful.




> Axelrod: These are the battle scars Biden brought to Afghanistan decision​
> 
> 
> By David Axelrod, CNN Senior Political Commentator
> 
> 
> 'I do not regret my decision': Biden on US military withdrawal from Afghanistan 02:01
> David Axelrod, a senior CNN political commentator and host of "The Axe Files," was a senior adviser to President Barack Obama and chief strategist for the 2008 and 2012 Obama presidential campaigns. The opinions expressed in this commentary are his. View more opinion on CNN.
> (CNN)Joe Biden was always a skeptic about what was possible in Afghanistan. I was a witness to that skepticism.
> 
> In 2009, President Barack Obama convened an intensive review of US strategy in Afghanistan. After seven years of war, the allied effort there was floundering. Attention and resources had been shifted to Iraq, while the war in Afghanistan drifted. Obama wanted to chart the way forward.
> 
> He led nine fateful meetings in the Situation Room, in the basement of the White House. The Pentagon, Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton strongly advocated for sending 40,000 troops to repel a resurgent Taliban. They said it would create space for democracy and civil society to take root.
> 
> Central to the strategy was training the Afghan army and police so they could defend the country themselves.
> 
> Biden didn't buy it. In an animated conversation in his office before the meetings began, he told me that the mission was drifting from its origins and that the Pentagon plan, pointedly leaked to the media before it even hit the president's desk, would result in a quagmire.
> 
> 
> "Our objective in going there was to destroy al Qaeda so why the hell are we plunging into COIN here?" the vice president asked, using the acronym for the type of elaborate counter insurgency program the military was proposing. "The president asked me to play the bad cop here and that's what I'm going to do."
> 
> In sometimes heated exchanges over the coming weeks, Biden sharply questioned Gates and the military architects of the plan. Capturing Osama bin Laden and destroying al Qaeda should remain the focus, he argued, and could be accomplished with a much smaller counter-terrorism force in the region. To commit to a larger counter insurgency would bog us down in a costly, open-ended war.
> 
> Biden's passion sprung from hard experience. He entered the Senate during the final years of Vietnam, when that long and painful war was effectively lost but not over. He had cast a vote in 2002 authorizing the war in Iraq that he quickly came to regret.
> 
> In the end, Obama agreed to send 30,000 additional troops but with benchmarks, including for the training of Afghan military and police, and a timetable for winding down the surge and handing responsibility for defending Afghanistan to the Afghans.
> 
> It wasn't the outcome Biden had hoped for, and he bore some scars from the fight. The Allied Commander in Afghanistan, Gen. Stanley McChrystal, was fired after a reporter overheard the general's aides crudely ridiculing Biden in McChrystal's presence. Gates would write in his 2014 memoir that while Biden was "a man of integrity," who was "impossible not to like...he has been wrong on nearly every major foreign policy and national security issue over the past four decades."
> 
> I've thought a lot this week about the deliberations I witnessed.
> 
> The concerns Biden expressed then have been more than vindicated today. We did get bogged down in Afghanistan. Yes, there has been enormous progress there on some fronts — most notably for women and girls, who suffered under the Taliban's repressive rule. Yes, our own military served with extraordinary courage and sacrificed greatly to give Afghans the chance for freedom denied by a brutal and repressive theocracy.
> 
> Yet this wasn't the mission that drew us to Afghanistan. Bin Laden was captured and killed a decade ago. Al Qaeda has been degraded. And, after 20 years in which so much American blood has been spilled and treasure lost, it was time to pass the task of securing those gains on to the Afghans themselves.
> 
> As Biden said in his televised remarks Monday, the fact that the Afghan security forces in which we invested so much were abjectly ill-prepared and unwilling to take up their own defense was a pretty fair sign that they never would be.
> 
> Yet the argument for leaving doesn't explain or justify the chaotic manner in which we did. There is shame in those images of Afghans who for years had helped support our efforts, chasing US military aircraft down runways in a desperate attempt to escape Taliban reprisals.
> 
> Maybe the explanation for the debacle lies in faulty intelligence, misjudging the warp speed at which the Taliban would advance and Kabul would fall. Perhaps there were other institutional errors. There will be plenty of reporting and after-action reviews on Capitol Hill and within the administration itself to get to the bottom of that.
> 
> But I wonder if Biden didn't also carry some of the scars of his past battles over Afghanistan into his decision-making as Commander-in Chief. Was he so determined not to be cowed by the Pentagon, as perhaps he felt Obama was, that he ignored warnings he should have heeded? Was he so eager to deliver a final rebuke to Gates and others, who dismissed his concerns 12 years ago, that he moved too fast?
> 
> And did his resolve to finally end this Endless War blind this famously empathetic President to the humanitarian crisis that was unfolding on his watch?
> 
> No exit from Afghanistan was going to be easy or without a sense of pain and betrayal from Americans who served and sacrificed there and Afghans who have come to rely on the US and its allies and have been left to fend for themselves.
> 
> And any regeneration of Afghanistan as a staging area for al Qaeda, ISIS and acts of terrorism against Americans or our allies also will invite new debate about the President's decision.
> 
> But as Biden argued, and events have proven, to remain after the Trump administration's withdrawal agreement with the Taliban last year, and Trump's subsequent drawdown of US troops, would have required reengaging and placing more Americans in harm's way to shore up a corrupt and feckless government.
> 
> Biden made a strong case for his decision to leave Afghanistan after two decades. It is one with which polls suggest most Americans agree.
> 
> Yet in stubbornly insisting that he was right all along, without fully acknowledging the pain of this withdrawal and botched execution of the endgame, Biden diminished the power of his argument.











						US, NATO Outta Afghanistan 2021
					

Money is fungible, and I have government more in mind than private enterprise.  The US supposedly spent $2T (roughly $100B per year), and the GDP of Afghanistan is approximately $20B.  Next time, just run the numbers and decide whether to pay off some of the locals to see off the ones we don't...




					army.ca
				




Good intentions and personal experience are a powerful combination.


----------



## Remius

Kirkhill said:


> *CNN and David Axelrod are not my preferred sources of information.*​​*However,* ​​Precisely because of that, the net tendency of bias at CNN and the particular position that David Axelrod held in the Obama-Biden administration I find this article particularly insightful.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> US, NATO Outta Afghanistan 2021
> 
> 
> Money is fungible, and I have government more in mind than private enterprise.  The US supposedly spent $2T (roughly $100B per year), and the GDP of Afghanistan is approximately $20B.  Next time, just run the numbers and decide whether to pay off some of the locals to see off the ones we don't...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> army.ca
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Good intentions and personal experience are a powerful combination.


This is what I have been saying.  Even CNN and other outlets on the center left are criticizing the execution of this “withdrawal”.


----------



## Kirkhill

daftandbarmy said:


> Round Two, ding ding....
> 
> 
> *The mujahideen resistance to the Taliban begins now. But we need help.*
> 
> 
> _Ahmad Massoud is the leader of the National Resistance Front of Afghanistan._
> 
> In 1998, when I was 9 years old, my father, the mujahideen commander Ahmad Shah Massoud, gathered his soldiers in a cave in the Panjshir Valley of northern Afghanistan. They sat and listened as my father’s friend, French philosopher Bernard-Henri Lévy, addressed them. “When you fight for your freedom,” Lévy said, “you fight also for our freedom.”
> 
> My father never forgot this as he fought against the Taliban regime. Up until the moment he was assassinated on Sept. 9, 2001, at the behest of the Taliban and al-Qaeda, he was fighting for the fate of Afghanistan but also for the West.
> Now this common struggle is more essential than ever in these dark, tense hours for my homeland.
> 
> I write from the Panjshir Valley today, ready to follow in my father’s footsteps, with mujahideen fighters who are prepared to once again take on the Taliban. We have stores of ammunition and arms that we have patiently collected since my father’s time, because we knew this day might come.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.washingtonpost.com/opin...ZMSmkWBDvpGX6jDtXNpmo5L3-tv8rLuEcHcWiMuYxTA-U




So which principles do we decide to uphold?  Those of the internationalist order? In which case we have a duly negotiated and agreed contract between the US and the Taliban and we support the Taliban government.  Or those of the liberal order?  In which case we have a racist, mysogynistic, theocracy to oppose and we support the Massoud's Northern Alliance. Again.

To be honest my heart is with Massoud's rising and supporting him.  But only with a variant of the original 2001 strategy.  Air Power, Intelligence, Logistics, Comms and Special Forces.

The problem is that the only country with Air Power legs long enough to support Massoud is the US.  Unless he can hold a few airfields or some of the Stans can be convinced to supply bases.


----------



## dangerboy

This is just brutal, can't imagine what everyone involved is going through.


----------



## The Bread Guy

daftandbarmy said:


> ... _Ahmad Massoud is the leader of the National Resistance Front of Afghanistan ..._


Pro tip:  be sure to screen your in-person TV interviews veeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeery carefully ....


----------



## daftandbarmy

Bazinga...


----------



## Altair

daftandbarmy said:


> Bazinga...
> 
> View attachment 66104


_oh boy.🍿_


----------



## Kirkhill

Assabiya Wins Every Time
					

Twenty years, $2 trillion, and the most powerful army in the world were no match for the one thing the Taliban has—and that current American leadership has lost




					www.tabletmag.com


----------



## Colin Parkinson

F**K of Cluster. You get the government you voted for, this is almost on par with the 1842 British defeat on the retreat from Kabul 









						As US military sticks to airport, British and French forces are rescuing their citizens in Kabul: reports
					

Reports of NATO allies conducting extractions is prompting Americans to why we aren't doing the same.




					www.militarytimes.com


----------



## dimsum

> “Some of our NATO allies have already figured out better solutions. Some, like the French, are just going out with their Special Forces and getting their people by whatever means necessary. Mr. President, if the French can do it, so can we,” Zeller wrote.



For a country that 20 years ago talked about "Freedom Fries" and joked about white French flags, that's gotta sting.


----------



## suffolkowner

Kirkhill said:


> Assabiya Wins Every Time
> 
> 
> Twenty years, $2 trillion, and the most powerful army in the world were no match for the one thing the Taliban has—and that current American leadership has lost
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.tabletmag.com



they always come from the desert/hinterland eh?









						How to Overthrow an Empire – and Replace It with Your Own
					

Imagine …   You are an heir of a Noble House. Your enemies, who include the emperor and a powerful noble, have assassinated your father and destroyed your House. You have escaped, but you have



					peterturchin.com


----------



## Altair

Colin Parkinson said:


> F**K of Cluster. You get the government you voted for, this is almost on par with the 1842 British defeat on the retreat from Kabul
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> As US military sticks to airport, British and French forces are rescuing their citizens in Kabul: reports
> 
> 
> Reports of NATO allies conducting extractions is prompting Americans to why we aren't doing the same.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.militarytimes.com


The french have not been shy in exercising their military force and the Britain known how to retreat from Afghanistan from experience.

Give America time, by their 3rd or 4th retreat from Afghanistan they will know what to do.


----------



## MilEME09

With battle lines now drawn, the question is, who makes the first move? Will the Northern Alliance move to retake Kabul?


----------



## Altair

MilEME09 said:


> With battle lines now drawn, the question is, who makes the first move? Will the Northern Alliance move to retake Kabul?


I hope they are not that dumb.

Hopefully they just do what the taliban was able to do, harass, bled out, melt away, for a few years.

Make the taliban bleed trying to hold their gains. Any move they make now is against a battle hardened force that outnumber them.


----------



## MilEME09

Altair said:


> I hope they are not that dumb.
> 
> Hopefully they just do what the taliban was able to do, harass, bled out, melt away, for a few years.
> 
> Make the taliban bleed trying to hold their gains. Any move they make now is against a battle hardened force that outnumber them.


That depends on their assets, how experienced their fighters are, and how much ANA kit they have snagged, and are probably still pillaging or redirecting to them. They have an estimated 10k fighters, that is a very large force if they felt they could take the ground and hold it without major loss, they probably will.


----------



## Weinie

Kirkhill said:


> Assabiya Wins Every Time
> 
> 
> Twenty years, $2 trillion, and the most powerful army in the world were no match for the one thing the Taliban has—and that current American leadership has lost
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.tabletmag.com


Great post Kirkhill.


----------



## Altair

MilEME09 said:


> That depends on their assets, how experienced their fighters are, and how much ANA kit they have snagged, and are probably still pillaging or redirecting to them. They have an estimated 10k fighters, that is a very large force if they felt they could take the ground and hold it without major loss, they probably will.


The taliban number 75k about?

With a large number of those forces making their way to Kabul?

I wouldn't imagine they have enough men at arms to win outright, nor enough structural organization to take advantage of the current situation. Their best chance would probably be retaking all the non pashtun cities in the north, consolidate, and go from there. Especially once the USA and the west are fully gone, and then the USA can back the opposition without fear or things going sideways at HKIA


----------



## Pelorus

dimsum said:


> For a country that 20 years ago talked about "Freedom Fries" and joked about white French flags, that's gotta sting.



That would imply that those who beat the drum the hardest about Freedom Fries possess any sort of ability for self-reflection or shame.


----------



## daftandbarmy

dimsum said:


> For a country that 20 years ago talked about "Freedom Fries" and joked about white French flags, that's gotta sting.



I have no doubt that the US troops are ready and willing. It's their political leadership that's letting them down, sadly.


----------



## FJAG

daftandbarmy said:


> I have no doubt that the US troops are ready and willing. It's their political leadership that's letting them down, sadly.


When one lives in the glass house that is Canada one shouldn't throw risk averse stones at other governments.



> Getting every eligible Afghan to safety is now 'almost impossible,' Trudeau says​​
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-afghanistan-afghans-evacuation-taliban-1.6146764


----------



## MilEME09

FJAG said:


> When one lives in the glass house that is Canada one shouldn't throw risk averse stones at other governments.


gee if only we had a well funded airforce...........


----------



## daftandbarmy

FJAG said:


> When one lives in the glass house that is Canada one shouldn't throw risk averse stones at other governments.



They must be 'asking too much' again.


----------



## Halifax Tar

FJAG said:


> When one lives in the glass house that is Canada one shouldn't throw risk averse stones at other governments.


I would imagine the Afghans are just experiencing this differently


----------



## OldSolduer

FJAG said:


> When one lives in the glass house that is Canada one shouldn't throw risk averse stones at other governments.


Agreed - just pointing it out


----------



## dimsum

MilEME09 said:


> gee if only we had a well funded airforce...........


I don't think the number of aircraft is the issue.  5000 planes won't change whether the Taliban allow access to the airport, or if it's safe enough for them to land/take off.


----------



## The Bread Guy

daftandbarmy said:


> I have no doubt that the US troops are ready and willing. It's their political leadership that's letting them down, sadly.


Just to play the devil's advocate, as some have done in other threads, this assumes that all we see in the bought-and-paid-for media that's being relied on for information is 1)  all that the media sees/knows and/or 2) _everything_ going on behind the scenes (esp. with units who prefer a lower profile)


----------



## daftandbarmy

Nice haul of goodies. Maybe we can trade them for some parkas?  


Planes, guns, night-vision goggles: The Taliban's new U.S.-made war chest​

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - About a month ago, Afghanistan’s ministry of defense posted on social media photographs of seven brand new helicopters arriving in Kabul delivered by the United States.

“They’ll continue to see a steady drumbeat of that kind of support, going forward,” U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters a few days later at the Pentagon.

In a matter of weeks, however, the Taliban had seized most of the country, as well as any weapons and equipment left behind by fleeing Afghan forces.

Video showed the advancing insurgents inspecting long lines of vehicles and opening crates of new firearms, communications gear and even military drones.

“Everything that hasn’t been destroyed is the Taliban’s now,” one U.S. official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, told Reuters.

Current and former U.S. officials say there is concern those weapons could be used to kill civilians, be seized by other militant groups such as Islamic State to attack U.S.-interests in the region, or even potentially be handed over to adversaries including China and Russia.

President Joe Biden’s administration is so concerned about the weapons that it is considering a number of options to pursue.

The officials said launching airstrikes against the larger equipment, such as helicopters, has not been ruled out, but there is concern that would antagonize the Taliban at a time the United States' main goal is evacuating people here.

Another official said that while there are no definitive numbers yet, the current intelligence assessment was that the Taliban are believed to control more than 2,000 armored vehicles, including U.S. Humvees, and up to 40 aircraft potentially including UH-60 Black Hawks, scout attack helicopters, and ScanEagle military drones.

“We have already seen Taliban fighters armed with U.S.-made weapons they seized from the Afghan forces. This poses a significant threat to the United States and our allies,” Representative Michael McCaul, the top Republican on the U.S. House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee, told Reuters in an email.









						Planes, guns, night-vision goggles: The Taliban's new U.S.-made war chest
					

About a month ago, Afghanistan's ministry of defense posted on social media photographs of seven brand new helicopters arriving in Kabul delivered by the United States.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## Altair

daftandbarmy said:


> Nice haul of goodies. Maybe we can trade them for some parkas?
> 
> 
> Planes, guns, night-vision goggles: The Taliban's new U.S.-made war chest​
> 
> WASHINGTON (Reuters) - About a month ago, Afghanistan’s ministry of defense posted on social media photographs of seven brand new helicopters arriving in Kabul delivered by the United States.
> 
> “They’ll continue to see a steady drumbeat of that kind of support, going forward,” U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters a few days later at the Pentagon.
> 
> In a matter of weeks, however, the Taliban had seized most of the country, as well as any weapons and equipment left behind by fleeing Afghan forces.
> 
> Video showed the advancing insurgents inspecting long lines of vehicles and opening crates of new firearms, communications gear and even military drones.
> 
> “Everything that hasn’t been destroyed is the Taliban’s now,” one U.S. official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, told Reuters.
> 
> Current and former U.S. officials say there is concern those weapons could be used to kill civilians, be seized by other militant groups such as Islamic State to attack U.S.-interests in the region, or even potentially be handed over to adversaries including China and Russia.
> 
> President Joe Biden’s administration is so concerned about the weapons that it is considering a number of options to pursue.
> 
> The officials said launching airstrikes against the larger equipment, such as helicopters, has not been ruled out, but there is concern that would antagonize the Taliban at a time the United States' main goal is evacuating people here.
> 
> Another official said that while there are no definitive numbers yet, the current intelligence assessment was that the Taliban are believed to control more than 2,000 armored vehicles, including U.S. Humvees, and up to 40 aircraft potentially including UH-60 Black Hawks, scout attack helicopters, and ScanEagle military drones.
> 
> “We have already seen Taliban fighters armed with U.S.-made weapons they seized from the Afghan forces. This poses a significant threat to the United States and our allies,” Representative Michael McCaul, the top Republican on the U.S. House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee, told Reuters in an email.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Planes, guns, night-vision goggles: The Taliban's new U.S.-made war chest
> 
> 
> About a month ago, Afghanistan's ministry of defense posted on social media photographs of seven brand new helicopters arriving in Kabul delivered by the United States.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com


Yeah, for the planes and any other heavy weapons, it will be like what happened with ISIL. They may work for a little while, then lack of maintenance and replacement parts will render them useless.


----------



## Blackadder1916

dimsum said:


> For a country that 20 years ago talked about "Freedom Fries" and joked about white French flags, that's gotta sting.



Since France was mentioned, it may be appropriate to note this speech (official English translation in the link) given by the French President a few days ago.  I've included an excerpt that discusses the immediate situation in Kabul and France's intent.









						France will stand with Afghans in a spirit of comradeship - President
					

"Afghanistan's future is in its own hands, but we will continue... supporting Afghan civil society and doing our duty to protect those whom we can protect," says Emmanuel Macron.




					uk.ambafrance.org
				





> Afghanistan – Speech by M. Emmanuel Macron, President of the Republic, on the situation in Afghanistan
> Fort de Brégancon, 16 August 2021
> 
> . . .
> 
> France’s fight served a purpose and did us credit. One day it will bear fruit, and I ask you to remember that.
> 
> At this very moment, the situation in Afghanistan is deteriorating swiftly and sharply. As I speak, the Taliban have assumed control of nearly the entire country. They entered Kabul and control the city with the exception of the airport, where activities are being coordinated by the Americans. The Afghan president left the country. Commercial flights have ceased.
> 
> This shift, which we were prepared for, calls for immediate decisions and initiatives on a par with the gravity of the situation, in order to respond to the humanitarian disaster.
> 
> The absolute priority is to ensure the security of our compatriots, who must all leave the country, as well as Afghans who have worked for France.
> 
> Our citizens have been evacuated in stages during recent weeks, in anticipation of what would happen. We are in contact with all French citizens who wish to return home, whether they be at the military airport, the civilian airport, or on the historic grounds of the Embassy, where the situation remains troubling. I want to take this opportunity to thank our representatives on the ground – our diplomats, police officers and military personnel – for their commitment and their courage. I also want to thank our American allies, who have been indispensable to carrying out these evacuations.
> 
> France is one of the very few countries that decided it had to have the means on the ground until the very end to protect those who worked for us. In recent weeks, we also made plans for evacuations operations.
> 
> We were therefore able to welcome all Afghan employees of French entities in Afghanistan who could be in danger, together with their families – more than 600 people – and assume care for them under good conditions.
> 
> France is currently protecting the European Union delegate and has provided protection for Afghans who work with the European delegation. France has also provided protection and support for all French personnel of nongovernmental organizations who wish to leave the country.
> 
> Operations have been under way for several years now to welcome Afghan civilian personnel employed by the French armed forces, along with their families. Our duty and our sense of integrity demand that we protect those who help us: interpreters, drivers, cooks and so many others. More than 800 people are now on French soil. Several dozen people who assisted the French armed forces are still on the ground, and we are mobilizing all of our efforts on their behalf.
> 
> Many Afghans – rights workers, artists, journalists, activists – are now in danger because of their activities. We will help them as much as we possibly can, because it does credit to France to stand by those who share our values, taking into account necessary adjustments to our capacity. I want to thank the associations, collectives and local governments who will help welcome them. In order to proceed with their evacuation, which can only be conducted in close coordination with American troops on the ground, I have decided to send two military aircraft and special forces. They will be on the ground in the coming hours.
> 
> Apart from these urgent measures, I intend to take several initiatives on behalf of France in close coordination with the other European nations and our allies.
> 
> - We will continue to focus our efforts first and foremost on actively combating Islamist terrorism in all of its forms.
> 
> . . .


----------



## YZT580

and they were planning in advance and working in advance.  What a contrast to the 'so-called' leaders on this side of the Atlantic


----------



## Jarnhamar

YZT580 said:


> and they were planning in advance and working in advance.  What a contrast to the 'so-called' leaders on this side of the Atlantic



Conspiracy hat: It's cheaper, easier and more convienient to play stupid, act surprise and put in minimal acceptable level of effort. (MALE rule  )


----------



## Altair

Jarnhamar said:


> Conspiracy hat: It's cheaper, easier and more convienient to play stupid, act surprise and put in minimal acceptable level of effort. (MALE rule  )


----------



## daftandbarmy

YZT580 said:


> and they were planning in advance and working in advance.  What a contrast to the 'so-called' leaders on this side of the Atlantic



Like who, I wonder?

Evacuating as many Afghans as Canada wants ‘nearly impossible’: Trudeau​








						Evacuating as many Afghans as Canada wants ‘nearly impossible’: Trudeau - National | Globalnews.ca
					

"We will get some, certainly, but to get many people out, as many as we'd want, is going to be almost impossible in the coming weeks," Trudeau said.




					globalnews.ca


----------



## OldSolduer

daftandbarmy said:


> Nice haul of goodies. Maybe we can trade them for some parkas?
> 
> 
> Planes, guns, night-vision goggles: The Taliban's new U.S.-made war chest​
> 
> 
> President Joe Biden’s administration is so concerned about the weapons that it is considering a number of options to pursue.
> 
> The officials said launching airstrikes against the larger equipment, such as helicopters, has not been ruled out, but there is concern that would antagonize the Taliban at a time the United States' main goal is evacuating people here.
> 
> Another official said that while there are no definitive numbers yet, the current intelligence assessment was that the Taliban are believed to control more than 2,000 armored vehicles, including U.S. Humvees, and up to 40 aircraft potentially including UH-60 Black Hawks, scout attack helicopters, and ScanEagle military drones.
> 
> “We have already seen Taliban fighters armed with U.S.-made weapons they seized from the Afghan forces. This poses a significant threat to the United States and our allies,” Representative Michael McCaul, the top Republican on the U.S. House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee, told Reuters in an email.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Planes, guns, night-vision goggles: The Taliban's new U.S.-made war chest
> 
> 
> About a month ago, Afghanistan's ministry of defense posted on social media photographs of seven brand new helicopters arriving in Kabul delivered by the United States.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com


Wait until the evacuation is over and I hear Hellfire missiles work well.


----------



## MilEME09

Is it bad the Taliban have better helicopters and drones then us?


----------



## Jarnhamar

MilEME09 said:


> Is it bad the Taliban have better helicopters and drones then us?




We have better offshore patrol vessels 🛥️
​


----------



## kkwd

Jarnhamar said:


> We have better offshore patrol vessels 🛥️
> ​


Yes, but the Taliban are swimming in superior land boats.


----------



## Weinie

daftandbarmy said:


> Nice haul of goodies. Maybe we can trade them for some parkas?
> 
> 
> Planes, guns, night-vision goggles: The Taliban's new U.S.-made war chest​
> 
> WASHINGTON (Reuters) - About a month ago, Afghanistan’s ministry of defense posted on social media photographs of seven brand new helicopters arriving in Kabul delivered by the United States.
> 
> “They’ll continue to see a steady drumbeat of that kind of support, going forward,” U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters a few days later at the Pentagon.
> 
> In a matter of weeks, however, the Taliban had seized most of the country, as well as any weapons and equipment left behind by fleeing Afghan forces.
> 
> Video showed the advancing insurgents inspecting long lines of vehicles and opening crates of new firearms, communications gear and even military drones.
> 
> “Everything that hasn’t been destroyed is the Taliban’s now,” one U.S. official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, told Reuters.
> 
> Current and former U.S. officials say there is concern those weapons could be used to kill civilians, be seized by other militant groups such as Islamic State to attack U.S.-interests in the region, or even potentially be handed over to adversaries including China and Russia.
> 
> President Joe Biden’s administration is so concerned about the weapons that it is considering a number of options to pursue.
> 
> The officials said launching airstrikes against the larger equipment, such as helicopters, has not been ruled out, but there is concern that would antagonize the Taliban at a time the United States' main goal is evacuating people here.
> 
> Another official said that while there are no definitive numbers yet, the current intelligence assessment was that the Taliban are believed to control more than 2,000 armored vehicles, including U.S. Humvees, and up to 40 aircraft potentially including UH-60 Black Hawks, scout attack helicopters, and ScanEagle military drones.
> 
> “We have already seen Taliban fighters armed with U.S.-made weapons they seized from the Afghan forces. This poses a significant threat to the United States and our allies,” Representative Michael McCaul, the top Republican on the U.S. House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee, told Reuters in an email.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Planes, guns, night-vision goggles: The Taliban's new U.S.-made war chest
> 
> 
> About a month ago, Afghanistan's ministry of defense posted on social media photographs of seven brand new helicopters arriving in Kabul delivered by the United States.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.reuters.com


I thought it was just M4s and Hummers.......hmmmmm


----------



## CBH99

To be fair, I think the concerns about the Taliban seizing aircraft such as Black Hawks, MD-500's, and the A-29's are overblown.

Helicopters need skilled maintenance, knowledge of spare parts, oil, lubricants, fuel.  I don't know if the average timmy Taliban would be a very trustworthy helicopter mechanic/technician. 

Helicopters also need pilots.  While they may be able to turn one on, or eventually figure out how to get the rotor spinning & engine started, I again don't know how good timmy will be at actually flying one of them.  Especially a black hawk.


Between a lack of pilots, and a complete lack of technicians/crew, I think the helicopters will mostly stay as great photo props.  



The A-29's would be a lot easier to figure out and get in the air.  Ride of a lifetime for anybody who has never driven or ridden in anything cooler than a pickup truck before, that's for sure.  But the real question is, can timmy land the thing?  (Also, does it have gas?  ammo?  weapons properly connected to hardpoints?)


----------



## Good2Golf

MilEME09 said:


> Is it bad the Taliban have better helicopters and drones then us?



160th SOAR(A) ‘Nightstalkers’:

“Hold our beers…”


----------



## Jarnhamar

CBH99 said:


> Between a lack of pilots, and a complete lack of technicians/crew, I think the helicopters will mostly stay as great photo props.


They'd make a killing selling them though.

Anything the Taliban won't or can't use can be sold. Money they make can bribe people for a long time.

I don't think it would be hard to find buyers in the middle east for american night vision, small arms, laser sights etc..


----------



## MilEME09

Jarnhamar said:


> They'd make a killing selling them though.
> 
> Anything the Taliban won't or can't use can be sold. Money they make can bribe people for a long time.
> 
> I don't think it would be hard to find buyers in the middle east for american night vision, small arms, laser sights etc..


How about we find a middle man, buy it, track the funds, close the accounts, and get new kit, and the money back, it's win win


----------



## Altair

Jarnhamar said:


> They'd make a killing selling them though.
> 
> Anything the Taliban won't or can't use can be sold. Money they make can bribe people for a long time.
> 
> I don't think it would be hard to find buyers in the middle east for american night vision, small arms, laser sights etc..


this is true. 

Just don't think that surplus kit is enough to prop up that nations economy after all the foreign money the west and western backed institutions were flowing into it.

There are going to be a lot of poor starving afghans in the near future.


----------



## OldSolduer

The Taliban have had 20 years. No doubt some younger ones are a bit more tech savvy than their predecessors


----------



## dapaterson

Jarnhamar said:


> We have better offshore patrol vessels 🛥️
> ​



FTFY.  Only one is in service so far...


----------



## Jarnhamar

Altair said:


> Just don't think that surplus kit is enough to prop up that nations economy after all the foreign money the west and western backed institutions were flowing into it.


I wonder if there's any Kingdoms in the area that would have a historic connection to the Taliban in Afghanistan and willing to secretly slide some cash their way 🤔


----------



## OldSolduer

Jarnhamar said:


> I wonder if there's any Kingdoms in the area that would have a historic connection to the Taliban in Afghanistan and willing to secretly slide some cash their way 🤔


There’s always the Haqqani network in NW Pakistan ….. ya know?


----------



## Altair

Jarnhamar said:


> I wonder if there's any Kingdoms in the area that would have a historic connection to the Taliban in Afghanistan and willing to secretly slide some cash their way 🤔


some cash? 

Some Cash?

IMF is blocking 370m this week alone, and the USA has frozen assets worth around 7 billion. 

If these kingdoms want to fill the void, they had better start holding some bake sales.


----------



## OldSolduer

Say isn’t China backing the Taliban? IF they are then cash is the least of their worries


----------



## Altair

OldSolduer said:


> Say isn’t China backing the Taliban? IF they are then cash is the least of their worries


China doesn't front cash without getting or owning something in return.

I guess they could be bankrolling them to get access to the trillions in resources in ground, but I suppose it remains to be seen if the country is stable enough to allow for that level of resource extraction and whether or not the money china would provide is enough to make up for all the money the west will pull out.


----------



## Edward Campbell

daftandbarmy said:


> I have no doubt that the US troops are ready and willing. It's their political leadership that's letting them down, sadly.



I just saw this a few minutes ago: US general tells British special forces: Stop rescuing people in Kabul, you're making us look bad

The _Washington Examiner_ is not, I think, pro-Biden, but, even so, this does sting a bit.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Edward Campbell said:


> I just saw this a few minutes ago: US general tells British special forces: Stop rescuing people in Kabul, you're making us look bad
> 
> The _Washington Examiner_ is not, I think, pro-Biden, but, even so, this does sting a bit.



Hey Yank General, on behalf of 2 PARA


----------



## The Bread Guy

Edward Campbell said:


> I just saw this a few minutes ago: US general tells British special forces: Stop rescuing people in Kabul, you're making us look bad
> 
> The _Washington Examiner_ is not, I think, pro-Biden, but, even so, this does sting a bit.


Interesting catch (and yeah, the Examiner is definitely anti-Democrat), but so far, this is the only outlet carrying this tidbit - and the writer doesn't say who told him, even in protected generic terms.  Still, interesting (and stinging) scuttlebutt, indeed, even if partly true ....

Meanwhile, no shortage of "holy crap" to go around even among the allies ...


> *The government is coming under pressure after it emerged ministers did not make a phone call about evacuating Afghan translators who had helped UK forces.*
> 
> It had said Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab was too busy to speak to his Afghan counterpart, with a junior minister being asked to do so instead.
> 
> But the Foreign Office now says it "was not possible" to arrange the call before the Afghan government collapsed.
> 
> Mr Raab has rejected demands from opposition parties to resign.
> 
> It was revealed earlier this week that the foreign secretary was unavailable to make the phone call last Friday - while he was on holiday in Crete - as the Taliban advanced towards Kabul, Afghanistan's capital.
> 
> (...)
> 
> The Afghan foreign ministry reportedly refused to arrange a call with a junior minister, pushing it back to the next day.
> But a Foreign Office spokesman has now told the BBC: "Given the rapidly changing situation, it was not possible to arrange a call before the Afghan government collapsed." ...


----------



## Good2Golf

Smells like BS, or something taken out of context.  

would also be interesting to know if the UK or France have deals with the Taliban?  I think anyone other than the US is under appreciating the protection they are afforded by ‘being allies’ of those who have the deal to not interfere.  I suspect if it was a true Wild West, that the SAS, 2 Para, French SF and other allies zipping around Kabul would be not having an easier injury-free go of it…I’d dare say there’s some hubris in the air and it isn’t the Taliban or the Americans.


----------



## Blackadder1916

Wonder if the information was released in response of Brit and French stories.









						US Deployed Helicopters To Rescue 169 Americans In Kabul Operation
					

US troops briefly exited Kabul airport at one point during ongoing evacuation operations to retrieve 169 people from inside the city, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said Friday.




					www.ndtv.com
				





> US Deployed Helicopters To Rescue 169 Americans In Kabul Operation
> 
> "They were very close to the perimeter of the airport. Very close. And in a short amount of time, with a short amount of distance, some of our troops were able to go out there and retrieve them and bring them in," Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said.
> 
> *Washington: *
> The US military in Afghanistan deployed three helicopters to rescue 169 Americans unable to reach the Kabul airport gates to leave the country, an official said Friday.
> 
> In the first evidence that US forces are willing and able to go beyond the US-secured airport to help people seeking evacuation, three Chinook helicopters flew to pick up the group of US citizens at the Baron hotel, not far from the airport, according to Pentagon spokesman John Kirby.
> 
> The group had planned to walk to the Abbey Gate of the airport, but a crowd was gathered there and US officials were concerned for the Americans' safety.
> 
> "There was a large crowd established outside the Abbey Gate, a crowd, that, not everybody had confidence in, in terms of their ability to walk through it, and so local commanders on the scene took the initiative and flew these helicopters out there to pick them up," Kirby said.
> 
> Earlier, President Joe Biden mentioned the rescue in a speech, but gave few details.
> 
> Since US troops took over the airport to facilitate an airlift of potentially tens of thousands of people a week ago, they have avoided going outside the gates to steer clear of possible clashes with the Taliban, who have seized control of the country.
> 
> The Pentagon says the US commander on the ground in the airport is in frequent contact with the local Taliban commander to make it easier for Americans and Afghans with US visas to reach the airport to leave._
> _


----------



## OldSolduer

Good2Golf said:


> Smells like BS, or something taken out of context.
> 
> would also be interesting to know if the UK or France have deals with the Taliban?  I think anyone other than the US is under appreciating the protection they are afforded by ‘being allies’ of those who have the deal to not interfere.  I suspect if it was a true Wild West, that the SAS, 2 Para, French SF and other allies zipping around Kabul would be not having an easier injury-free go of it…I’d dare say there’s some hubris in the air and it isn’t the Taliban or the Americans.


Perhaps the deal is "we won't shoot you in the face with Hellfires if you let us roam free and fetch who we want" ?


----------



## Kirkhill

I read that President Biden is "giving up" on Afghanistan to "focus" on China.



> China shares a rugged 76-kilometre (47-mile) border with Afghanistan.
> 
> Beijing has long feared Afghanistan could become a staging point for minority Uyghur separatists in the sensitive border region of Xinjiang.
> 
> But a top-level Taliban delegation met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Tianjin last month, promising that Afghanistan would not be used as a base for militants.
> 
> In exchange, China offered economic support and investment for Afghanistan's reconstruction.











						China ready for 'friendly relations' with Taliban, welcomes Afghan development projects
					

China is ready to deepen "friendly and cooperative" relations with Afghanistan, a government spokeswoman said Monday, after the Taliban seized control of the country.




					www.france24.com
				






> The Uyghur are a Turkic people located primarily in northwestern China. Significant communities can also be found in Kazakstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan, with a small number in Afghanistan. Their origins can be traced back to Turkish nomads who lived in Siberia. They became independent of the Turks in 744 AD, but were forced to leave their homeland in 840 AD. It was then that most of them immigrated to western China.
> 
> The Uyghurs in Kyrgyzstan represent a very slight percentage of the country's total population. They have been heavily influenced by Russians and other Central Asian peoples; most are bilingual and today, few of them speak Uighur as their first language.
> 
> Uyghur literally means "allied." For centuries, the Uyghur were an important link between China and the rest of the world. They lived along the legendary Silk Road and worked as caravan drivers transporting Chinese goods. The strategic locations of their homes allowed them to be the "middlemen" between the Orient and Europe.











						Uyghur in Afghanistan
					

Joshua Project profile for the Uyghur in Afghanistan




					joshuaproject.net
				




So he is abandoning the one place where he can directly influence the Uyghur situation of Xinjiang and directly confront Beijing over their handling of ethnic minorities.   

Not a good look for the Uyghurs, Tibetans, Hong Kong or Taiwan.  Or Falung Gong, Muslims and Christians.

Nor can it be particularly comforting for the Baltics and the Visegrad Group or Ukrainians.


----------



## dimsum

> But a top-level Taliban delegation met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Tianjin last month, *promising that Afghanistan would not be used as a base for militants.*
> 
> In exchange, China offered economic support and investment for Afghanistan's reconstruction.


Excuse me if I call BS on that promise.  

I'm not even suggesting that the Taliban govt doesn't want to do it.  They might.  I'm suggesting that the Taliban "control" probably doesn't extend as far as they think it does, especially in those famously porous border regions.


----------



## The Bread Guy

dimsum said:


> Excuse me if I call BS on that promise.


Aaaaaaaaall in the phrasing  😉 This from a statement from said meeting last month (CHN foreign ministry info-machine, but links to an archiving site) - highlights mine:


> ... The Afghan Taliban will never allow any force to use the Afghan territory to engage in acts *detrimental to China* ...


In _that_ context, they may be more careful.


----------



## Kirkhill

The Chinese re-education camps are filled with Uyghur militants.  Not Al Qaeda or Taliban.

One man's patriot is another's terrorist.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Kirkhill said:


> The Chinese re-education camps are filled with Uyghur militants.  Not Al Qaeda or Taliban.
> 
> One man's patriot is another's terrorist.


Too true.  The CHN info-machine statement mentions the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), "an Uyghur Islamic extremist organization founded in Western China. Its stated goals are to establish an independent state called East Turkestan replacing Xinjiang."  No longer considered terrorists by the U.S. as of late last year.


----------



## Kirkhill

Kirkhill said:


> I read that President Biden is "giving up" on Afghanistan to "focus" on China.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> China ready for 'friendly relations' with Taliban, welcomes Afghan development projects
> 
> 
> China is ready to deepen "friendly and cooperative" relations with Afghanistan, a government spokeswoman said Monday, after the Taliban seized control of the country.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.france24.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> URL unfurl="true"]https://joshuaproject.net/people_groups/15755/af[/URL]
> 
> So he is abandoning the one place where he can directly influence the Uyghur situation of Xinjiang and directly confront Beijing over their handling of ethnic minorities.
> 
> Not a good look for the Uyghurs, Tibetans, Hong Kong or Taiwan.  Or Falung Gong, Muslims and Christians.
> 
> Nor can it be particularly comforting for the Baltics and the Visegrad Group or Ukrainians.




Further to this









						Anti-Taliban resistance: What's happening in the Panjshir Valley?
					

"I write from the Panjshir Valley today, ready to follow in my father's footsteps, with mujahideen fighters who are prepared to once again take on the Taliban.




					news.sky.com
				




And you always need a map



The Panjshir and that long finger like extension from Kabul into the Taklamakan Desert is the southern bound of the Turkic Stans and the Silk Road.

It is also the northern limit of the Iranian Persian Pashtun/Pathan Taliban that connects Northwest India, the Punjab, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran with China (once the Tibetans and Uyghurs are moved out of the way).

The Pashtuns thus connect China with Persian Iran and divide India from the Turkic Stans and Mongolia, the ancient enemies of the Han Chinese.

Al Qaeda is an Arab mob.  The only thing the Persians dislike more than a Turk is an Arab.

So, as Belgium used to be known as the Cockpit of Europe I would argue there are two comparable Asian Cockpits - The Hindu Kush of the Himalayas and the Caucasus of Turkey.  The Kurds play a comparable role in the Caucasus to the Pashtun in the Hindu Kush.

The only real question is whether we ignore the game or we play the game.  And what's a grub stake in the game.


----------



## Kirkhill

Biden's aides afraid to tell the autocratic president he was wrong.

“This White House is very disciplined, especially when it comes to leaks and such. But the downside of discipline is if you're running things like an autocracy, and you broker no dissent internally, that's not what the purpose of a White House staff is."









						Joe Biden's aides 'too afraid' to tell  him he was wrong on Afghanistan, say White House insiders
					

The US president is facing the greatest crisis of his tenure




					www.telegraph.co.uk
				





And he has lost Tony Blair









						Tony Blair slams Joe Biden's 'imbecilic' retreat from Afghanistan
					

America shuts Kabul airport as Dominic Raab is forced to turn to China and Russia for help in Afghanistan




					www.telegraph.co.uk


----------



## Kirkhill

Consequences









						'Dear diary, our life is over': Female ex-soldier details terror of Kabul's first week under Taliban rule
					

Ex-Afghan soldier K tells how she burned her military uniform after learning a policewoman had been publicly executed




					www.telegraph.co.uk


----------



## Kirkhill

And then there is this comment from a Brit who happens to have dark skin





> Observing events around the world, however, I fear we are entering the fourth stage of Hopf’s cycle; that hard times are coming, enabled by a weak West that is not equal to the task of overcoming them.
> 
> The chief culprit has been President Joe Biden. His administration, with the gratingly right-on Kamala Harris at his side, has been a wokefest from the start, whether it was rescinding Donald Trump’s ban on critical race theory-inspired implicit bias training for federal employees on his first day, signing ill-thought-through executive orders on trans rights, or jumping on every other virtue-signalling bandwagon he could find.
> 
> His commitment to these Left-wing shibboleths has won him not only the faltering support of the Democrats’ influential young radicals, but that of America’s media establishment, which has covered shamelessly for *a president who should have spent more time worrying about his role as commander-in-chief and his obligations to the people of Afghanistan than trying to rival Justin Trudeau or Jacinda Ardern for “wokest world leader”.*











						Biden's woke presidency is a self-indulgent luxury the West can no longer afford
					

The US President should have spent more time worrying about Afghanistan, and less competing to be the world's wokest leader




					www.telegraph.co.uk


----------



## Kirkhill

And finally this editorial from the Telegraph.









						The Left's illusion of a Biden presidency has been shattered
					

The establishment consensus, desperate to be rid of Trump, was that the veteran Democrat would be a return to stability. This was wrong.




					www.telegraph.co.uk


----------



## Fishbone Jones

UK’s Parliament Holds Joe Biden in Contempt as France and Britain Forced to Rescue Citizens Trapped in Kabul​








						UK’s Parliament Holds Joe Biden in Contempt as France and Britain Forced to Rescue Citizens Trapped in Kabul › American Greatness
					

The Biden administration's botched withdrawal from Afghanistan and the desperate situation in Kabul has angered U.S. allies, leaving them scrambling to evacuate their citizens and the Afghans who…




					amgreatness.com
				





The Biden administration’s botched withdrawal from Afghanistan and the desperate situation in Kabul has angered U.S. allies, leaving them scrambling to evacuate their citizens and the Afghans who supported them during the 20 year war.

More at link.


----------



## MilEME09

British Paras' Scathing Details Of Botched US Evacuation In Kabul
					

We have received disturbing information from British "Paras" of the UK's 16 Air Assault Brigade regarding their experiences and perceptions on the ground in Kabul during the US-led effort to evacuate Western forces and allies.




					funker530.com
				




Lack of communication from the US is apparently hampering evacuation efforts by allies


----------



## daftandbarmy

2 PARA with what is known in the trade as 'Host Nation Transport'


----------



## MilEME09

Northern Alliance Clear Banu District From Taliban, ANA Still Missing?
					

While the Afghanistan Armed Forces was forced to surrender to the Taliban due to its incompetent leadership, such as Afghan president Ashraf Ghani who fled the country, taking hundreds of thousands of dollars with him, the Northern Alliance has been reclaiming what was once theirs.




					funker530.com
				




Northern Alliance is on the move, clearing Banu of taliban


__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1428745273703116806


----------



## FJAG

An interesting viewpoint from Germany in Spiegel International:



> The Entirely Predictable Failure of the West's Mission in Afghanistan
> 
> 
> In early July, I met with a leading Taliban military commander. I asked when his fighters would arrive in Kabul. His answer: "They are already there." How the Afghanistan mission failed and what happens next.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.spiegel.de



🍻


----------



## Humphrey Bogart

British Paras' Scathing Details Of Botched US Evacuation In Kabul



> We have received disturbing information from British "Paras" of the UK's 16 Air Assault Brigade regarding their experiences and perceptions on the ground in Kabul during the US-led effort to evacuate Western forces and allies.
> 
> 
> The reports claim that British troops are not being given any information by the US officers, to include the UK's top officer in the operation, Vice Admiral Ben Key, who was reportedly blocked from any and all CENTCOM negotiations with Taliban. Reportedly, heated arguments between high-ranking US and UK officers have taken place in front of their troops.


More at the link


----------



## daftandbarmy

Busy as a bee... in Hell:

Diary of a British soldier in Afghanistan: ‘We’re on joint patrol with the Taliban, it’s surreal’​

The Telegraph has been speaking over the past week to servicemen from 16 Air Assault Brigade’s 2 Para who are on the frontline in Kabul as part of Operation Pitting, the UK’s effort to rescue British nationals and eligible Afghans.

As city by city fell to the Taliban, the soldiers were dropped in under the cover of darkness to save as many as they could.

This is the story of their week.

Friday, August 13: Soldier A did not expect to be packing his bags to deploy for a rescue mission to Kabul. He was due to be enjoying summer leave, switching off from the military and having a break. Instead, after Ben Wallace, the Defence Secretary, ordered a Non-combatant Evacuation Operation to be executed on Thursday, he was back on a C-17 Globemaster to Afghanistan, a place he had fought in many times before and thought he could leave behind.

Saturday, August 14: “It’s crazy out here,” Soldier A texted from Afghanistan. Within 2 hours of touching down at Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul, he had taken to the streets to rescue people. “Everyone from 2 Para landed and went straight into it, we had no choice,” he said. “It was really chaotic as Kabul was falling.” The streets were busy, the night was hot, and at times personnel were forced to dismount their military vehicles to move displaced people out of their way so that they could find those they had been sent to rescue. The passengers, a combination of expats, dual nationals and people working with NGOs and contractors, had been instructed by the Foreign Office to report to a secure location, where they were picked up by the soldiers. “We scooped up most of the British nationals on the first day, but I believe there are a few still out there,” he said. Among them were blind, pregnant and disabled people.

Sunday, August 15: In the early hours of the morning, the evacuees were brought to the airfield. Ensuring the safe passage of the civilians to the airport was a “phenomenal” effort, which required coordination between the Royal Air Force and other agencies, including the US military, Afghan police and the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office. Once inside, the evacuees were fed and given the chance to rest. However, the soldier said “conditions were basic, reflecting the emergency nature of the extraction”. Those who had been rescued were “relieved to be getting out”. “A friendly British face goes a long way,” Soldier A said. By nightfall, the capital had fallen to the Taliban.

Monday, August 16: At around 11.30am, 2 Para had completed their first evacuation of around 200 British nationals from Afghanistan. Packed into a military aircraft, the evacuees travelled to the UK via another location in the Middle East. “The guys and girls here have been exceptional,” Soldier A said. “Likewise, some of the Afghans have been unbelievably brave.”

With the first evacuees safely in the air, the soldiers went on to occupy the Baron Hotel complex around 600 metres from the perimeter of the airport, working around the clock. “I’m sleeping less than an hour at a time,” Soldier A said. “I’ve completely lost track of days.”

Tuesday, August 17:Crowds of people swelled around the airport entrance. “It’s chaos,” Soldier A explained. “People are fighting for their lives to get in and British soldiers are at the front of it.” The Taliban appeared to be making it extremely difficult for those seeking evacuation. “People are shaking with fear when they get to us because of the ordeal of getting past the Taliban to reach us,” he added.

The emotional strain of what they are seeing – men and women sobbing, pleading for their lives – takes its toll on the soldiers. “We do a job that volunteers us for some of the most extreme environments on earth,” Soldier A said. “We understand that when we sign on the dotted line, and we do what we have to do. But it doesn’t mean we always enjoy it.”

Wednesday, August 18: It is not lost on the soldiers just how unprecedented it is to be operating in a collegiate way with the Taliban. Many on the ground fought them over the 20-year war and lost colleagues along the way. However, today, they are not being obstructive. “I’m pretty much on a joint patrol with them,” Soldier A said. “It means we stand about five feet away from them. It’s surreal.” In order to get through it he said, “I’m separating the two now”, but conceded that the entire situation was “pretty unfathomable”.

“I am a little concerned, perhaps less about the Taliban’s behaviour changing, more about people becoming desperate,” he said.

Between Sunday, August 15 and Friday, August 20, Britain had evacuated more than 2,400 people, 599 of them UK nationals. Soldier A said: 'Without all the right documentation they just become good people we can’t take'

Thursday, August 19:Flights have started to leave regularly and Soldier A is confident that the UK has developed “a really good system to transition chaos” in order to enable orderly departures. They have also picked up people from a number of other nations. If things keep going at pace he believes British troops will be out by August 31. “We are still on for the end of the month because the real question is will the Taliban accept a delay, they want us out,” he said. Asked if he believed they will evacuate everyone they were sent to recover by that deadline, he added: “We are certainly trying.”

Friday, August 20: Since Sunday, Britain has evacuated more than 2,400 people, 599 of them UK nationals. However, frustration has been brewing on the ground as to why the mission was left so “last minute”.

“Why we didn’t do it a month ago when the rest of the UK mission withdrew is beyond me,” Solider A said. “The country was stable then. Yes, it was the plan to send us in, but it doesn’t make sense – take a load of people and their kit out of a place, to send different people and kit to the same place a month later.”

The soldiers are the ones who have the difficult job of turning desperate people away at the gates of the airport. “Without all the right documentation they just become good people we can’t take,” Soldier A said, although he insisted that despite the emotional hardship the male and female soldiers alike would carry on with their mission in the vein they had started. “They really are doing an awesome job,” he said.



http://www.paktravelnews.com/21-08-... who killed their friends, soldiers have said.


----------



## CBH99

Kirkhill said:


> Biden's woke presidency is a self-indulgent luxury the West can no longer afford
> 
> 
> The US President should have spent more time worrying about Afghanistan, and less competing to be the world's wokest leader
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.telegraph.co.uk






Kirkhill said:


> Biden's aides afraid to tell the autocratic president he was wrong.
> 
> “This White House is very disciplined, especially when it comes to leaks and such. But the downside of discipline is if you're running things like an autocracy, and you broker no dissent internally, that's not what the purpose of a White House staff is."
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Joe Biden's aides 'too afraid' to tell  him he was wrong on Afghanistan, say White House insiders
> 
> 
> The US president is facing the greatest crisis of his tenure
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.telegraph.co.uk
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Tony Blair slams Joe Biden's 'imbecilic' retreat from Afghanistan
> 
> 
> America shuts Kabul airport as Dominic Raab is forced to turn to China and Russia for help in Afghanistan
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.telegraph.co.uk


I'm not one to take sides when it comes to politics.  Like I've said before, good ideas are good ideas, and bad ideas are bad ideas.  I don't care which side suggests it/implements it.  So I'm not pointing fingers saying "This is all Biden's fault, or Trump's fault, etc."



Just a few random thoughts on these types of articles, regardless of which media outlet writes or publishes them:


The British media can be quite brutal in what they say, how they portray certain events or issues, etc.
Not all of this can be blamed on Joe Biden, not even close.


We have to remember some key things about what has transpired over the last few years that has led to this situation, and seperate that from how it is being handled now.  

-  It was President Trump that signed a deal with the Taliban, a deal that was negotiated for well over a year, that included the withdrawl of all US and allied military forces.  This also corresponded with one of his primary promises he campaigned on, and contributed to him being elected as POTUS.

-  The American public was overwhelmingly in favour of withdrawing US forces from Afghanistan as it had mostly become invisible to the average American, while the American MSM focused on all kinds of other things.  (Mostly nonsense.)  They didn't want to continue to spend the kinds of blood and treasure to continue fighting what had become America's longest war.

-  The Americans had announced, via MSM, a fairly precise withdrawl date - which gave the Taliban some pretty clear planning guidelines.  They also published how many troops had been withdrawn, and how many were still in country, at each stage of the withdrawl.



Did anybody think the Taliban would keep their word?  No.  But there also was no enforcement mechanism in the agreement to ensure the Taliban complied with their end of the deal.  All of the above was done prior to President Biden coming into office.


Now in terms of the current fiasco:

-  I don't think anybody anticipated the Taliban regaining as much territory as it did, as quickly as it did.  It literally swept the country at lightning speed, taking a different province & provincial capital on a near daily basis.  

^  I think all of us assumed that at the very least, the ANA along with Afghan Air Force would give them a decent fight before either losing or abandoning post.  I don't think any of us anticipated the entire ANA, and ANSF just disappearing entirely within a week or two.

-  The Taliban also entered, and started going door to door in Kabul, almost instantly after retaking Kandahar.  This led to thousands of people flooding the airport hoping for a flight out, and the chaotic shitshow currently happening now.



Could it have been handled better?  Absolutely.  But I don't think anybody can realistically say "This is all Biden's fault!"  It isn't.  



I do question though, as this all unfolds...

Other than embassy staff, and perhaps small numbers of government employees stationed/deployed to Afghanistan, most other Westerners should have been gone.  Evacuating embassy staff (including local Afghans who were employed at the embassy in which a special visa was part of their contract) should have been put on a few planes and flown out, with sensitive documents quickly destroyed prior.

-  If our interpreters, and other hired locals, were promised a special visa upon completion of their contract...why the hell are they even there still?  Should have been moved here years ago, as agreed upon.  None of them worked for us, undertaking the risks they did, for our end of the agreement to be fulfilled 'eventually, maybe, one day.'  They worked for us in good faith that we would honour our agreement, and we should have.  And we've had a decade to do so.

-  If not directly employed by an embassy, or other government organization - and if not someone previously promised a special visa like our interpreters - then who the hell are all these western citizens SOF has to go find and rescue?  WTF are they even doing there, if not employed directly by their country's embassy?


----------



## The Bread Guy

Putin:  thanks, but no thanks ...


> President Vladimir Putin on Sunday rejected the idea of sending people evacuation from Afghanistan to countries near Russia, saying he did not want "militants showing up here under cover of refugees", Russian news agencies reported.
> 
> Putin criticised an idea of some Western countries to relocate refugees from Afghanistan to neighbouring Central Asian countries while their visas to the United States and Europe are being processed.
> 
> "Does that mean that they can be sent without visas to those countries, to our neighbours, while they themselves (the West) don't want to take them without visas?" TASS news agency quoted Putin as telling leaders of the ruling United Russia party.
> 
> "Why is there such a humiliating approach to solving the problem?" he said.
> 
> The United States held secret talks with a number of  countries in a desperate attempt to secure deals to temporarily house at-risk Afghans who worked for the U.S. government, Reuters reported last week ...


More on the U.S. looking for willing host-while-processing countries here.


----------



## RangerRay

This article is behind a paywall on its website, but available on the Apple News app.  The Brits aren’t happy. 









						Tony Blair attacks Joe Biden’s ‘imbecilic’ Afghanistan retreat as Kabul chaos deepens
					

Ministers have warned that Britain will have to tear up its foreign policy after the debacle in Afghanistan, amid flaring tempers about America’s decision to cu




					www.thetimes.co.uk
				





Tony Blair attacks Joe Biden’s ‘imbecilic’ Afghanistan retreat as Kabul chaos deepens


Former PM joins ministers in condemning US president, while reports say Afghans are crushed to death at the airport in front of British soldiers


August 22 2021, The Sunday Times


Ministers have warned that Britain will have to tear up its foreign policy after the debacle in Afghanistan, amid flaring tempers about America’s decision to cut and run.


Tony Blair branded Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw “imbecilic”, while cabinet insiders suggested the president was “gaga” and “doolally” for withdrawing so fast.


The former prime minister, who sent British troops to Afghanistan in 2001, accused the president of pulling out “with little or no consultation” with his closest ally.


In a sign of fraying nerves, Dominic Raab, the foreign secretary, requested an urgent phone conversation with Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, to lobby the Americans to keep the evacuation at Kabul airport going beyond Biden’s deadline of August 31.


A senior government source said: “We’ve never put a fixed date on withdrawal. The situation on the ground is in flux — it would be unwise to impose a rigid deadline at this stage. Our priority is getting our people out, as safely and as quickly as possible.”


The war of words came as:


● There were reports of women being crushed to death at the airport, despite efforts made by British soldiers to save them. The British defence ministry said on Sunday that seven Afghan civilians have died in the chaos near the airport.


● Lisa Nandy, the shadow foreign secretary, said last night that Labour MPs had been hearing of people being “shot at, beaten and raped” while waiting at the airport.


● Baron hotel in Kabul, where many British citizens are to go to for processing, is said to have been blockaded by the Taliban.


● The US embassy advised Americans against travelling to the airport because of “potential security threats”.


● Taliban opponents claimed to have seized three districts near Kabul, in the first sign of resistance to the militants.


● Mullah Baradar, a co-founder of the Taliban, arrived in the capital.


● In London and Glasgow, protesters took to the streets in a stand against the unfolding humanitarian disaster.


Raab intervened amid evidence of bad feeling between Britain and the US. A minister denounced American “isolationism” and said that the government would have to “revisit” the recent review on defence and foreign policy because the US was no longer a reliable ally.


“America has just signalled to the world that they are not that keen on playing a global role,” the minister said. “The implications of that are absolutely huge. We need to get the integrated review out and reread it. We are going to have to do a hard-nosed revisit on all our assumptions and policies.


“The US had to be dragged kicking and screaming into the First World War. They turned up late for the Second World War and now they are cutting and running in Afghanistan.”


There were further incendiary claims that Boris Johnson has privately referred to Biden as “Sleepy Joe”, the nickname coined by Donald Trump. A source also said the prime minister “half-jokingly” remarked: “We would be better off with Trump.” Downing Street called the claims “categorically untrue” but Johnson’s warm noises about the ex-president are corroborated by witnesses.


On Saturday, Trump attacked Biden’s handling of the retreat of US forces from Afghanistan at a rally near Cullman, Alabama.


He said: “Biden’s botched exit from Afghanistan is the most astonishing display of gross incompetence by a nation’s leader, perhaps at any time.


“This is not a withdrawal. This was a total surrender.”


Blair rounded on Biden, accusing him of making a political decision rather than a strategic one. “We didn’t need to do it,” he wrote yesterday. “We chose to do it. We did it in obedience to an imbecilic political slogan about ending ‘the forever wars’.”


Biden said: “It’s time to end this forever war” when he first announced the US withdrawal in a national televised address in April.


Blair said: “For Britain, out of Europe and suffering the end of the Afghanistan mission by our greatest ally with little or no consultation ... we are at risk of relegation to the second division of global powers.”


The Ministry of Defence said Britain had rescued 3,821 people from Kabul since August 13. They include 1,023 UK passport holders plus 1,429 Afghan interpreters and other staff who worked for Britain, and their families.


Military sources have also told MPs that as tensions rose last week, there were clashes with the US on the ground and “heated words” between British and US commanders at Kabul airport, including one “stand-up” row.


In Whitehall there was fury last week when the Americans closed their gate to the airport and sent prospective refugees to the area manned by 2 Para.


The prime minister is “extremely frustrated” by developments in Afghanistan, senior officials admitted.


A diplomat warned that officials in London were confident the evacuation effort at the airport could hold only “until Tuesday”.


Johnson will convene a meeting of G7 leaders this week and last night spoke to the UN secretary-general, António Guterres, about a UN security council resolution.


A government source said: “The PM has not criticised the US and regards co-operation on Afghanistan to be vital going forward.”





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----------



## Good2Golf

> Blair rounded on Biden, accusing him of making a political decision rather than a strategic one. “We didn’t need to do it,” he wrote yesterday. “We chose to do it. We did it in obedience to an imbecilic political slogan about ending ‘the forever wars’.”


 …for a second there, I thought he was referring to Iraq, and pandering to G.W. and the contrived WMDs…. 😉 

This goes to show that many politicians will spare no effort in hypocritical denigration of others.  Blair certainly isn’t someone I’d put on the short list of great leaders…


----------



## The Bread Guy

Good2Golf said:


> …for a second there, I thought he was referring to Iraq, and pandering to G.W. and the contrived WMDs…. 😉
> 
> This goes to show that many politicians will spare no effort in hypocritical denigration of others.  Blair certainly isn’t someone I’d put on the short list of great leaders…


#OppositionForTheSakeOfOpposition


----------



## Kirkhill

> Last Updated: 22nd August, 2021 21:08 IST
> Afghanistan: Fighting Erupts In Andarab; Massoud's Northern Alliance Surrounds Taliban​The Taliban and the resistance forces are fighting it out in Andarab, after three of the neighboring districts- Banu, Pol-e-Hesar, and De Salah were captured.​
> https://www.kooapp.com/create?title=Afghanistan: Fighting erupts in Andarab; Massoud's Northern alliance surrounds Taliban https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/rest-of-the-world-news/afghanistan-fighting-erupts-in-andarab-massouds-northern-alliance-surrounds-taliban.html&link=https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/rest-of-the-world-news/afghanistan-fighting-erupts-in-andarab-massouds-northern-alliance-surrounds-taliban.html&language=en&handle=republic&utm_source=republic&utm_campaign=republic_share
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Credit-AP/Facebook/AhmadMassoud
> 
> A massive battle has broken out in Andarab - a southern district in the Baghlan province of Afghanistan. The Taliban and the resistance forces are fighting it out in Andarab, after three of the neighbouring districts - Banu, Pol-e-Hesar, and De Salah from the Baghlan province were captured by the army of Ahmad Massoud's. Ahmad Massoud started a resistance soon after the Taliban took over power in Afghanistan, after capturing the capital city Kabul.
> 'Either do or die'​Earlier in the day, a video was accessed by Republic Media Network in which Commander Lutfullah, who is leading the Andarab resistance in Afghanistan, was seen delivering a special speech to his supporters to fight back against the Taliban. In his speech, Commander Lutfullah asserted, "Either we do or die, but we will not let Taliban rule here." It is important to note here that the people of Andarab do not have heavy weapons, and the weapons that they have in general are limited in numbers.
> As per sources, the residents of the district have surrounded the militant group. The group earlier in the day took several children, and women hostage in a bid to negotiate and this infuriated the residents who came out of their houses to fight them tooth and nail.
> Andarab borders Panjshir, Afghanistan's last remaining holdout against the Taliban. The terrorist group had issued an ultimatum of four hours for the Ahmad Massoud-led anti-Taliban National Resistance Front of Afghanistan in Panjshir.
> 
> "If they surrender within the stipulated time, everything will be fine. Otherwise, we will punish," the group stated, while sharing a video in which it can be seen moving towards Panjshir.
> 
> However, the leader of the resistant force, Ahmad Massoud, has made it clear that he and his force do not have the word 'surrender' in their vocabulary.
> 
> "If anyone by any name would want to attack our homes, our land, and our freedom, just like the National Hero-Ahmad Shah Massoud and other Mujahedeen, we as well are ready to give away our lives and die but will not give away our land and our dignity," Massoud had said. He insisted that the resistance would continue 'no matter what'.




Backstory

On Aug 20 (Friday)

On Friday, former Afghan government official General Bismillah Mohammadi tweetedthat fighters had taken back control of three districts in the northeastern Baghlan province: Hesar Bridge, Deh Salah, and Beno.



Sarfaraz
@Sarfaraz1201
·
Aug 20

Today our forces and local uprising forces liberated the strategic Pul-e-Hesar, Banu and Andarab districts of #Baghlan province from Taliban. Dozens of Taliban were killed. RESISTANCE2.0 IS A MUST.














						Afghan fighters recapture territory from Taliban as pockets of armed resistance emerge across country | Business Insider
					

Afghan fighters recaptured territory in Baghlan, and former VP Amrullah Saleh and Ahmad Massoud are leading a resistance movement in Panjshir Valley.




					www.businessinsider.co.za
				







__ https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1429103702095253505


----------



## Brad Sallows

> But I don't think anybody can realistically say "This is all Biden's fault!"  It isn't.



Biden was VP for all 8 years of an administration that had the Afghanistan file among its worries.  He didn't come to this dance with no inkling of what the floor was like.

Yes, it is trivially true that it can't all be Biden's fault.  Yet we (or at least some) have learned that Trump's deal was irrelevant; Biden had already decided for himself to leave.  We have learned that he allegedly spoke harshly of the fate of the people there years ago ("Fuck that, we don’t have to worry about that. We did it in Vietnam, Nixon and Kissinger got away with it.")  He was a man who primed himself to cut and run, and that's the decision he made.

Second prize goes to the NeverTrump neo-cons: they worked hard to get their wars going, they worked hard to move the goalposts to include nation-building, they worked hard to oppose the preceding administration's attempts to depart conflicts in Syria and Afghanistan, they worked hard to elect the man responsible for what is happening now.  Few have been privileged to conduct failures of such magnitude and completeness, all the while moaning about the terrible direction America is taking and how people no longer heed them.


----------



## Jarnhamar

_The likely hood there is going to be the Taliban over running everything and owning the whole country is highly unlikely.
-US president Biden_


I wonder if the presidential advisors had previous experience writing horoscopes.


----------



## CBH99

Brad Sallows said:


> Biden was VP for all 8 years of an administration that had the Afghanistan file among its worries.  He didn't come to this dance with no inkling of what the floor was like.
> 
> Yes, it is trivially true that it can't all be Biden's fault.  Yet we (or at least some) have learned that Trump's deal was irrelevant; Biden had already decided for himself to leave.  We have learned that he allegedly spoke harshly of the fate of the people there years ago ("Fuck that, we don’t have to worry about that. We did it in Vietnam, Nixon and Kissinger got away with it.")  He was a man who primed himself to cut and run, and that's the decision he made.
> 
> Second prize goes to the NeverTrump neo-cons: they worked hard to get their wars going, they worked hard to move the goalposts to include nation-building, they worked hard to oppose the preceding administration's attempts to depart conflicts in Syria and Afghanistan, they worked hard to elect the man responsible for what is happening now.  Few have been privileged to conduct failures of such magnitude and completeness, all the while moaning about the terrible direction America is taking and how people no longer heed them.


Agreed, very much so.  

When I wrote my post in response to the media posts, especially the British media as they had released some of the articles various members here have posted — I was coming off of a night shift and very much in zombie mode.  

There were certain things that I had completely forgotten about when I wrote my post, now that I re-read it.  


I should have clarified the ultimate points I was trying to make, which were:

-  This fiasco was several years in the making, and not just under Trump.  As much as I am very much not a Trump fan, he did inherit this conflict, he didn’t start it. And Obama inherited the conflict also.  (I was so tired last night, i actually forgot Biden was VP for 8 years.  Thanks for reminding me of something obvious I should have remembered!)

-  And while all of this is happening under Biden’s watch, the beginnings of this final withdrawal fiasco started prior to him being POTUS.  _My main point is not ALL of this is his fault, as there were/are many factors at work here, most of which have been evolving over the years prior to him being POTUS._ 

It’s easy for media outlets, the public, and various politicians to point the finger at who is in charge now and say “this is all your fault!”   Except it isn’t all his fault.

Just in my own opinion, it is unfair to lay this ALL on Biden, even if he was VP during the Obama years.  He absolutely was involved in this conflict during those years in very influential ways - but we need to remember there were 4 years between then and when he became POTUS that a lot happened, which changed the landscape of the conflict and contributed to what is happening now.

We also need to remember that a lot of things happening behind the scenes in respect to China and Russia may have influenced how quickly the Taliban regained control - factors that may not have been in play when he was VP.  

Not giving him a free pass.  The withdrawal aspect of this conflict has been handled poorly, and what’s been happening for the last month of so has very much been on his watch.  




That being said, I am was extremely shocked and to be honest - disappointed - at the literal “how” US forces departed Bagram, Kabul, etc.  That only happened roughly a month ago, and was very much under Biden’s watch.

Departing in the middle of the night - without notice - as well as leaving various little “dickhead gestures” to boot - was disappointing.  To have our Afghan partners say they woke up and the Americans were gone, and didn’t even hear them leave.  They didn’t inform them they were leaving that night, no ceremony or anything.  Turned the power off to half the base, and even locked up half the buildings prior to quietly leaving overnight.  

While that departure date was obviously planned and scheduled, and many at the senior & political levels were aware — it seemed like nobody bothered to inform the ANA/ANSF leadership at the base of the departure.  I would have assumed the senior American leadership on the ground would have had enough 
contact with his Afghan counterpart that they would have at least shook hands & parted ways in a professional manner.

Waking up to have all the Americans gone, along with their kit, power shut off to half the base and various buildings locked even though they were now empty?  Not the classiest way for allies to part ways while in a war zone.  

I don’t expect politicians to keep troops informed of every single thing scheduled, but the command leadership at a joint base should have been working with their Afghan counterparts enough for it to not be a complete surprise.  



Regardless, I think we all agree that the current is an absolute disaster which was easily avoidable had proper preparations been made.

0.02 🍻


----------



## Infanteer

FJAG said:


> An interesting viewpoint from Germany in Spiegel International:
> 
> 
> 
> 🍻



I was listening to NPR on the road the other day, and an ex-CIA official said "if we were building the ideal force to succeed in Afghanistan, it'd be the Taliban."


----------



## Good2Golf

They’d know. They (inadvertently) helped build them, to wit the TB CP with excellent trigger discipline in all the TB PR shots…


----------



## CBH99

Infanteer said:


> I was listening to NPR on the road the other day, and an ex-CIA official said "if we were building the ideal force to succeed in Afghanistan, it'd be the Taliban."


Well that’s the last thing the west wants to hear under the current circumstances, and yet probably brutally accurate.


----------



## CBH99

Good2Golf said:


> They’d know. They (inadvertently) helped build them, to wit the TB CP with excellent trigger discipline in all the TB PR shots…


Excellent trigger discipline indeed.

Having sons & brothers join the ANA during a lull in the fighting, or if pro-Taliban villages had young men to spare/come of age - to receive basic military training, and gain insight into how the ANA & western forces worked together, basic tactics, basic information on equipment, etc - quite helpful to someone either way.

If they are a Taliban agent, they just gained access to basic, yet valuable information on how the ANA operates, who is in the ranks & who are in senior unit-level positions, enough information on Humvees to help plan more successful ambushes, radio jargon, etc. 

What better way to learn about one’s enemy than live with them, and have them think of you as one of them? 

And if need be, initiate a green on blue incident - killing the opposition so the Taliban in the area can continue to operate and/or win, while sowing intense mistrust among the ranks of the ANA & their western colleagues.  Brutal, harsh, and yet jawdroppingly effective. 


Solid trigger discipline.  Familiarity with how to operate the M-16 & M-4 family, including how to clean and maintain them, clear a jam, fix a malfunction, etc.  Those skills came from somewhere… not everybody we trained was loyal to the ANA, and plenty disappeared after completing their training.  (Where did those lads go off to, anyway?) 



We knew this was the case at the time.  We knew not everybody in an ANA uniform had joined ‘because they loved their country’.  We knew green on blue was a very possible scenario, hence the way we structured where our guys were when we were training them. 

(Remember that in addition to having the instructors instruct - as a group lecture, then individually work with each ANA trainee to help clarify and refine the lessons being taught - always have one or two guys at the rear, weapons ready, watching and observing.  If/when one of them initiated a green on blue, they had the beat and could drop them fairly quickly if need be.)

(Also remember, depending on location and local AO - if situation allowed for it, always try to have lunch with the ANA.  Somehow we don’t seem to take mortar, rocket, or machine gun fire on the days we sit with them…but on days where we eat separately, somehow we always end up with a rocket or two being fired at us.)


No matter what the west did when it came to the Afghan government and the ANA, we were destined to inadvertently train the enemy to one extent or another.  We did what we could to minimize that, but it was inevitable to an extent.


----------



## blacktriangle

Want answers? Follow the money.


----------



## Fishbone Jones

blacktriangle said:


> Want answers? Follow the money.


You mean, like someone was paid off to open the door for Red China?


----------



## Czech_pivo

Serious question here.  What's going to happen to all the remaining Canadians once the Americans and British vacate Kabul airport?  As of now I think its fairly certain that Canada will not be getting them all out.


----------



## QV

Good2Golf said:


> …for a second there, I thought he was referring to Iraq, and pandering to G.W. and the contrived WMDs…. 😉
> 
> This goes to show that many politicians will spare no effort in hypocritical denigration of others.  Blair certainly isn’t someone I’d put on the short list of great leaders…



"Never underestimate Joe's ability to f--- things up." - Barack Obama









						Barack Obama has privately voiced concerns that Joe Biden could 'f--- things up,' according to a report
					

There are said to be tensions between the Biden and Obama camps over the former president's perceived lack of support for Biden's White House bid.




					www.businessinsider.com


----------



## CBH99

Czech_pivo said:


> Serious question here.  What's going to happen to all the remaining Canadians once the Americans and British vacate Kabul airport?  As of now I think its fairly certain that Canada will not be getting them all out.


With the way the current situation is - both in terms of the tactical and humanitarian situation on the ground around the airport, as well as whatever goals various western governments have - I think it is safe to say that nobody will be getting all of their people out.

With the exception of SAR, and certain SOF missions — there IS such a thing as mission failure (even though it doesn’t sound as cool as a ‘no fail mission.’)  And I think we should expect that with the goal posts as vague as they are right now, I’m not even sure we can define what mission success even looks like.  


To try and answer your question the best I can (hopefully someone else has a better answer)

-  How many Canadian citizens are in Kabul right now?  Is mission success getting every single one of them out?

-  Are we evacuating embassy staff & support workers?  Or are we finally evacuating our interpreters and other contracted help, 10yrs after the fact?  Are we defining success by getting all of them out?  (If they weren’t residing in Kabul, how would we even locate them?)

-  Are we shooting for embassy staff, workers, our former interpreters & their families, and any Afghan that has been waiting on a visa approval?  Any minority or vulnerable person we can cram on a plane?  



Without defining first what our objectives are, and in what order we are prioritizing them, it will be hard for us to say whether we succeeded in accomplishing the mission or not.

My guess?  Once the Americans leave, everybody else will be forced to get their troops onto a plane and leave also.  And that will be that.  

Embassy staff & contracted workers have all been evacuated, so it seems.  Now we seem to be focusing on duel citizens, Afghans who were waiting on a visa, etc.  Once the Americans leave, I imagine everybody else will have to also.  We can’t evac the whole city.  

^ Just my assumption


----------



## Czech_pivo

CBH99 said:


> With the way the current situation is - both in terms of the tactical and humanitarian situation on the ground around the airport, as well as whatever goals various western governments have - I think it is safe to say that nobody will be getting all of their people out.
> 
> With the exception of SAR, and certain SOF missions — there IS such a thing as mission failure (even though it doesn’t sound as cool as a ‘no fail mission.’)  And I think we should expect that with the goal posts as vague as they are right now, I’m not even sure we can define what mission success even looks like.
> 
> 
> To try and answer your question the best I can (hopefully someone else has a better answer)
> 
> -  How many Canadian citizens are in Kabul right now?  Is mission success getting every single one of them out?
> 
> -  Are we evacuating embassy staff & support workers?  Or are we finally evacuating our interpreters and other contracted help, 10yrs after the fact?  Are we defining success by getting all of them out?  (If they weren’t residing in Kabul, how would we even locate them?)
> 
> -  Are we shooting for embassy staff, workers, our former interpreters & their families, and any Afghan that has been waiting on a visa approval?  Any minority or vulnerable person we can cram on a plane?
> 
> 
> 
> Without defining first what our objectives are, and in what order we are prioritizing them, it will be hard for us to say whether we succeeded in accomplishing the mission or not.
> 
> My guess?  Once the Americans leave, everybody else will be forced to get their troops onto a plane and leave also.  And that will be that.
> 
> Embassy staff & contracted workers have all been evacuated, so it seems.  Now we seem to be focusing on duel citizens, Afghans who were waiting on a visa, etc.  Once the Americans leave, I imagine everybody else will have to also.  We can’t evac the whole city.
> 
> ^ Just my assumption


Makes sense. Outside of Kabul it’s all basically a no go zone now. I’d expect that priority one is the Embassy staff and they are all most likely out now, then down the list we go in terms of assigned priority. Nasty reading about the alleged friction between the Brits and the US. Going to be very ver interesting to see how the last few flights manage to get off the tarmac as I assume the remaining Afghans within the perimeter and outside the perimeter begin to see that the end is near. They will most likely have to rely on the Taliban to secure the tarmac to allow the last flight to run down the tarmac unopposed….


----------



## CBH99

Czech_pivo said:


> Makes sense. Outside of Kabul it’s all basically a no go zone now. I’d expect that priority one is the Embassy staff and they are all most likely out now, then down the list we go in terms of assigned priority. Nasty reading about the alleged friction between the Brits and the US. Going to be very ver interesting to see how the last few flights manage to get off the tarmac as I assume the remaining Afghans within the perimeter and outside the perimeter begin to see that the end is near. They will most likely have to rely on the Taliban to secure the tarmac to allow the last flight to run down the tarmac unopposed….


I suspect you are right.  

What a funny world we live in… who would have thought of ‘this’ as being the finale?  In the sense that:

-  We spent 20 years killing the Taliban, and they did the same to us.  

-  Now we are asking them to help keep the masses of people from storming the airfield, which they are doing at our request.  

-  We went to help the people of Afghanistan rid themselves of Taliban rule.  

-  We went about this by building schools and infrastructure, good will gestures, patrolling villages and back country, and…well…killing the same dickheads we are now asking to help us.  Asking them to keep the people away, even though WE were the ones trying to help those people by eliminating Taliban.  


Goodness gracious I just got dizzy from trying to wrap my head around the dark irony of it all!  🤪


-  The frustration on the ground between the Yanks & Brits I imagine will be short lived.  Both commanders and forces were thrown into a total shitstorm without a real plan, no idea how to identify who was good to go & who wasnt, being fed droplets of information by their respective governments who were both caught off guard, etc.  

I imagine the US commander wasn’t sharing much info at first because he was probably figuring it all out, along with everybody else.  Those first few days were extremely fluid, not just with Afghan civilians storming the airfield, but coalition NEO stuff happening also.  Just imagine the absolute clusterf**k he is trying to sort out at the time - I imagine he was swimming in conflicting reports, changing intel, conflicting messages, constantly changing narratives, etc.  The same goes for the Brits also.  I imagine it was more frustration, confusion, lack of a plan for either of them to work with - and looking to each other for a working plan, which neither of them had, etc.

(6000 troops sounds great, but was there a plan to feed them?  Provide them with water?  Replacement batteries for NVG equipment, radios, etc.  Fuel for vehicles.  How long is he expected to be there for?  Where will those troops use as a base for sleep, food, etc?  How many people does he need to evacuate?  Does he have a complete list of names?  Is he supposed to evacuate non-citizens also?  If so, who?  Why?  When do the planes come back after they depart?  What are his ROE if the Taliban show up?  Wait, the Taliban are now assisting him in controlling the crowds?  Are you sure?  WTF is happening!? 🤯🤬🤯🤬)

Im sure the tensions will go away decently quickly.  The politicians who are already calling for a ‘full review of their bilateral relationship’ need to STFU, stop jumping the gun, and focus on the task at hand.  They are just making noise, at a time when there doesn’t need to be any.

Both countries have invested huge sums of money to not only be interoperable, but literally deploy together on a constant basis.  (USMC squadrons filling out the numbers on HMS carriers is a good example)


When this is all finished, I am fairly certain that relationship will go back to looking much prettier 😉


----------



## Weinie

CBH99 said:


> I suspect you are right.
> 
> What a funny world we live in… who would have thought of ‘this’ as being the finale?  In the sense that:
> 
> -  We spent 20 years killing the Taliban, and they did the same to us.
> 
> -  Now we are asking them to help keep the masses of people from storming the airfield, which they are doing at our request.
> 
> -  We went to help the people of Afghanistan rid themselves of Taliban rule.
> 
> -  We went about this by building schools and infrastructure, good will gestures, patrolling villages and back country, and…well…killing the same dickheads we are now asking to help us.  Asking them to keep the people away, even though WE were the ones trying to help those people by eliminating Taliban.
> 
> 
> Goodness gracious I just got dizzy from trying to wrap my head around the dark irony of it all!  🤪
> 
> 
> -  The frustration on the ground between the Yanks & Brits I imagine will be short lived.  Both commanders and forces were thrown into a total shitstorm without a real plan, no idea how to identify who was good to go & who wasnt, being fed droplets of information by their respective governments who were both caught off guard, etc.
> 
> I imagine the US commander wasn’t sharing much info at first because he was probably figuring it all out, along with everybody else.  Those first few days were extremely fluid, not just with Afghan civilians storming the airfield, but coalition NEO stuff happening also.  Just imagine the absolute clusterf**k he is trying to sort out at the time - I imagine he was swimming in conflicting reports, changing intel, conflicting messages, constantly changing narratives, etc.  The same goes for the Brits also.  I imagine it was more frustration, confusion, lack of a plan for either of them to work with - and looking to each other for a working plan, which neither of them had, etc.
> 
> (6000 troops sounds great, but was there a plan to feed them?  Provide them with water?  Replacement batteries for NVG equipment, radios, etc.  Fuel for vehicles.  How long is he expected to be there for?  Where will those troops use as a base for sleep, food, etc?  How many people does he need to evacuate?  Does he have a complete list of names?  Is he supposed to evacuate non-citizens also?  If so, who?  Why?  When do the planes come back after they depart?  What are his ROE if the Taliban show up?  Wait, the Taliban are now assisting him in controlling the crowds?  Are you sure?  WTF is happening!? 🤯🤬🤯🤬)
> 
> Im sure the tensions will go away decently quickly.  The politicians who are already calling for a ‘full review of their bilateral relationship’ need to STFU, stop jumping the gun, and focus on the task at hand.  They are just making noise, at a time when there doesn’t need to be any.
> 
> Both countries have invested huge sums of money to not only be interoperable, but literally deploy together on a constant basis.  (USMC squadrons filling out the numbers on HMS carriers is a good example)
> 
> 
> When this is all finished, I am fairly certain that relationship will go back to looking much prettier 😉


And then finally, after all others have been evac'd, he has to come up with a plan to get his 6000 soldiers out of Kabul. If I were a bad person, I would say that this is the time to strike, as the PR downside for killing soldiers is much preferable to killing civilians. You could claim that it was multiple actors.


----------



## Jarnhamar

Weinie said:


> And then finally, after all others have been evac'd, he has to come up with a plan to get his 6000 soldiers out of Kabul. If I were a bad person, I would say that this is the time to strike, as the PR downside for killing soldiers is much preferable to killing civilians. You could claim that it was multiple actors.


An enterprising Taliban commander could dress some Taliban up in American uniforms with American kit and blast civilians. Make sure it's recorded and let it leak to the media.
Hell Taliban could even use the American dressed dudes and make it look like US SOF is carrying out assassinations on the way out. Take out an ANA commander and make people wonder why "Americans" would do that. What did he know that the US wanted hidden?


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Jarhamar, lets hope they are not that creative...


----------



## OldSolduer

Jarnhamar said:


> An enterprising Taliban commander could dress some Taliban up in American uniforms with American kit and blast civilians. Make sure it's recorded and let it leak to the media.
> Hell Taliban could even use the American dressed dudes and make it look like US SOF is carrying out assassinations on the way out. Take out an ANA commander and make people wonder why "Americans" would do that. What did he know that the US wanted hidden?



I'm not all that savvy about tech stuff but can the T people read this? They have had 20 years and I doubt they aren't cave dwellers anymore.


----------



## The Bread Guy

OldSolduer said:


> I'm not all that savvy about tech stuff but can the T people read this? They have had 20 years and I doubt they aren't cave dwellers anymore.


Never say never, but I suspect there's people in the Taliban's info-machine that don't have to read this idea here to already be working on it.

So, will Taliban 2.0 play nice to the world a bit longer, or not?

"*Britain, other allies push back on Biden’s Aug. 31 deadline to leave Kabul"* _(Washington Post_ via stripes.com)
*"Taliban won't extend August 31 deadline for Western forces to leave"* (Reuters via Times of India)


----------



## Good2Golf

I think the TB are actually smart enough to know that such an idea has limited gains for significant risks.


----------



## blacktriangle

Weinie said:


> If I were a bad person, I would say that this is the time to strike, as the PR downside for killing soldiers is much preferable to killing civilians. You could claim that it was multiple actors.


The Taliban & Daesh aren't exactly friends, so I can see some potential scenarios there. Same with a false flag conducted by Afghan "Resistance" in a bid to draw Westerners back in, or delay departure. 

I think it's in the best interest of the Taliban (and any potential foreign actors seeking to do business with them) to have the withdrawal occur as quickly & smoothly as possible. Resource extraction and participation in initiatives such as Belt & Road will require security/stability.


----------



## Weinie

blacktriangle said:


> The Taliban & Daesh aren't exactly friends, so I can see some potential scenarios there. Same with a false flag conducted by Afghan "Resistance" in a bid to draw Westerners back in, or delay departure.
> 
> I think it's in the best interest of the Taliban (and any potential foreign actors seeking to do business with them) to have the withdrawal occur as quickly & smoothly as possible. Resource extraction and participation in initiatives such as Belt & Road will require security/stability.


This.


----------



## blacktriangle

CBH99 said:


> 6000 troops sounds great, but was there a plan to feed them?  Provide them with water?  Replacement batteries for NVG equipment, radios, etc.  Fuel for vehicles. How long is he expected to be there for?  Where will those troops use as a base for sleep, food, etc?


At least some of the conventional forces on the ground are Marines assigned to SPMAGTF-CR-CC. They are positioned forward to respond to contingencies in CENTCOM AOR, and have some sustainment capabilities as well as their own air assets. Still not enough for something of this magnitude, which is why they've been reinforced by the US Army & others.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Looks like that's a firm 'best before date':

Taliban warns of ‘consequences’ if US delays withdrawal​Evacuations of citizens and vulnerable Afghans beyond the August 31 deadline would be ‘extending occupation’, the Taliban says.

The Taliban will not agree to an extension of the evacuation mission from Afghanistan, and is “warning of consequences” if it is prolonged.
The move would mean “extending occupation” and that is “a red line”, Suhail Shaheen, a member of the Taliban delegation in Doha, the capital of Qatar, said on Monday.

United States President Joe Biden said on Sunday that the “hard and painful” airlift of Americans and tens of thousands of others from Afghanistan’s capital is accelerating, but he would not rule out extending it beyond the August 31 deadline he set before the Taliban’s swift takeover.

The airport has been the scene of chaos since the Taliban seized the Afghan capital on August 15 as US and international forces try to evacuate citizens and vulnerable Afghans. A NATO official has said that at least 20 people have died in and around the airport in the past week.

An Afghan security guard has been killed in a firefight between unknown gunmen and Afghan forces at the north gate of Kabul airport, the German military said, as thousands thronged the airport, seeking to flee Taliban rule.

Three more people were injured in the gun battle on Monday morning that has also involved German and US forces, the German military said on Twitter.









						Taliban warns of ‘consequences’ if US delays withdrawal
					

US president to decide on extension of August 31 withdrawal deadline as Taliban warns against ‘extending occupation’.




					www.aljazeera.com


----------



## OldSolduer

daftandbarmy said:


> Looks like that's a firm 'best before date':
> 
> Taliban warns of ‘consequences’ if US delays withdrawal​Evacuations of citizens and vulnerable Afghans beyond the August 31 deadline would be ‘extending occupation’, the Taliban says.
> 
> The Taliban will not agree to an extension of the evacuation mission from Afghanistan, and is “warning of consequences” if it is prolonged.
> The move would mean “extending occupation” and that is “a red line”, Suhail Shaheen, a member of the Taliban delegation in Doha, the capital of Qatar, said on Monday.
> 
> United States President Joe Biden said on Sunday that the “hard and painful” airlift of Americans and tens of thousands of others from Afghanistan’s capital is accelerating, but he would not rule out extending it beyond the August 31 deadline he set before the Taliban’s swift takeover.
> 
> The airport has been the scene of chaos since the Taliban seized the Afghan capital on August 15 as US and international forces try to evacuate citizens and vulnerable Afghans. A NATO official has said that at least 20 people have died in and around the airport in the past week.
> 
> An Afghan security guard has been killed in a firefight between unknown gunmen and Afghan forces at the north gate of Kabul airport, the German military said, as thousands thronged the airport, seeking to flee Taliban rule.
> 
> Three more people were injured in the gun battle on Monday morning that has also involved German and US forces, the German military said on Twitter.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Taliban warns of ‘consequences’ if US delays withdrawal
> 
> 
> US president to decide on extension of August 31 withdrawal deadline as Taliban warns against ‘extending occupation’.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.aljazeera.com


I think a gunfight is upcoming. Damn this is perilous. 

What is China saying and what is Russia saying?


----------



## Weinie

daftandbarmy said:


> Looks like that's a firm 'best before date':
> 
> Taliban warns of ‘consequences’ if US delays withdrawal​Evacuations of citizens and vulnerable Afghans beyond the August 31 deadline would be ‘extending occupation’, the Taliban says.
> 
> The Taliban will not agree to an extension of the evacuation mission from Afghanistan, and is “warning of consequences” if it is prolonged.
> The move would mean “extending occupation” and that is “a red line”, Suhail Shaheen, a member of the Taliban delegation in Doha, the capital of Qatar, said on Monday.
> 
> United States President Joe Biden said on Sunday that the “hard and painful” airlift of Americans and tens of thousands of others from Afghanistan’s capital is accelerating, but he would not rule out extending it beyond the August 31 deadline he set before the Taliban’s swift takeover.
> 
> The airport has been the scene of chaos since the Taliban seized the Afghan capital on August 15 as US and international forces try to evacuate citizens and vulnerable Afghans. A NATO official has said that at least 20 people have died in and around the airport in the past week.
> 
> An Afghan security guard has been killed in a firefight between unknown gunmen and Afghan forces at the north gate of Kabul airport, the German military said, as thousands thronged the airport, seeking to flee Taliban rule.
> 
> Three more people were injured in the gun battle on Monday morning that has also involved German and US forces, the German military said on Twitter.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Taliban warns of ‘consequences’ if US delays withdrawal
> 
> 
> US president to decide on extension of August 31 withdrawal deadline as Taliban warns against ‘extending occupation’.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.aljazeera.com


Posturing on the Talibans' part. The consequences for them will be much greater if they open fire on U.S. troops or aircraft.







__





						gladiator, at my signal,unleash hell - Bing video
					






					www.bing.com


----------



## Colin Parkinson

OldSolduer said:


> I think a gunfight is upcoming. Damn this is perilous.
> 
> What is China saying and what is Russia saying?


"is best show of this season in this series ever! Want some more popcorn Ivan?"


----------



## MilEME09

Colin Parkinson said:


> "is best show of this season in this series ever! Want some more popcorn Ivan?"


More like stay distracted while we take Taiwan


----------



## Altair

daftandbarmy said:


> Looks like that's a firm 'best before date':
> 
> Taliban warns of ‘consequences’ if US delays withdrawal​Evacuations of citizens and vulnerable Afghans beyond the August 31 deadline would be ‘extending occupation’, the Taliban says.
> 
> The Taliban will not agree to an extension of the evacuation mission from Afghanistan, and is “warning of consequences” if it is prolonged.
> The move would mean “extending occupation” and that is “a red line”, Suhail Shaheen, a member of the Taliban delegation in Doha, the capital of Qatar, said on Monday.
> 
> United States President Joe Biden said on Sunday that the “hard and painful” airlift of Americans and tens of thousands of others from Afghanistan’s capital is accelerating, but he would not rule out extending it beyond the August 31 deadline he set before the Taliban’s swift takeover.
> 
> The airport has been the scene of chaos since the Taliban seized the Afghan capital on August 15 as US and international forces try to evacuate citizens and vulnerable Afghans. A NATO official has said that at least 20 people have died in and around the airport in the past week.
> 
> An Afghan security guard has been killed in a firefight between unknown gunmen and Afghan forces at the north gate of Kabul airport, the German military said, as thousands thronged the airport, seeking to flee Taliban rule.
> 
> Three more people were injured in the gun battle on Monday morning that has also involved German and US forces, the German military said on Twitter.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Taliban warns of ‘consequences’ if US delays withdrawal
> 
> 
> US president to decide on extension of August 31 withdrawal deadline as Taliban warns against ‘extending occupation’.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.aljazeera.com


Dear God, what I wouldn't give for Europe and Canada to nut up and stay if the USA pulls out.

Pipe dream though.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Altair said:


> Dear God, what I wouldn't give for Europe and Canada to nut up and stay if the USA pulls out.
> 
> Pipe dream though.



Not if we’re hanging out with the Northern Alliance.


----------



## CBH99

Altair said:


> Dear God, what I wouldn't give for Europe and Canada to nut up and stay if the USA pulls out.
> 
> Pipe dream though.


Genuine question for you - to what end?

Do you mean for Canada and Europe to stay in Afghanistan for a longer term mission?  Or stay longer than the deadline allows, if the evacuation mission requires it?


----------



## CBH99

daftandbarmy said:


> Not if we’re hanging out with the Northern Alliance.


Probably more reliable and helpful than the ANA, in all fairness.  

Shame we couldn’t have snapped our fingers and replaced our ANA (mostly, there were some good troops and good units out there) - but replaced the ANA with Northern Alliance troops.

That would have made for a lot more terrain kept and professionally controlled than when we left the ANSF to run things.  _Que predictable train wreck_ 💥


----------



## Quirky

Altair said:


> Dear God, what I wouldn't give for Europe and Canada to nut up and stay if the USA pulls out.
> 
> Pipe dream though.


Ya let’s nut up by pointlessly killing more of our soldiers in a country we have no business being in. It’s time for the Afghans to “nut up” and fight for themselves and their own futures instead of running away.


----------



## QV

Altair said:


> Dear God, what I wouldn't give for Europe and Canada to nut up and stay if the USA pulls out.
> 
> Pipe dream though.


Canada better spend a little more on defence if it wants to roll anywhere as volatile as A’stan without big daddy USA in its corner. Putting that $6B into defence instead of baby sitters in Quebec would have been a decent start. You can’t have it all.


----------



## Altair

Quirky said:


> Ya let’s nut up by pointlessly killing more of our soldiers in a country we have no business being in. It’s time for the Afghans to “nut up” and fight for themselves and their own futures instead of running away.


It's one thing to have the ANA run in fear of the taliban, it's another for Europe, North America, NATO to turn tail and run.

Not saying stay indefinitely, but working on the timetable of the Taliban is just demeaning.


----------



## Altair

QV said:


> Canada better spend a little more on defence if it wants to roll anywhere as volatile as A’stan without big daddy USA in its corner. Putting that $6B into defence instead of baby sitters in Quebec would have been a decent start. You can’t have it all.


I did say Europe and Canada.

I wouldn't expect Canada to be the main force by any means.

But the UK, France, Germany when it wants to, have some hitting power and could maybe project enough hard power to hold the airport for a week or two.

But like I said, pipe dream. Everyone is just a client state of the US military at the end of the day.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Lets hope this is just a rumour








						Brett Baier: US will be out of Kabul in 72 hours
					

Brett Baier reporting that our military is now only taking American citizens at the Kabul airport. He adds that our military is expected to be out in 72 hours... 8-24-2021




					rumble.com


----------



## KevinB

Colin Parkinson said:


> Lets hope this is just a rumour
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Brett Baier: US will be out of Kabul in 72 hours
> 
> 
> Brett Baier reporting that our military is now only taking American citizens at the Kabul airport. He adds that our military is expected to be out in 72 hours... 8-24-2021
> 
> 
> 
> 
> rumble.com


31 Aug Biden just gave as a firm end date -- of course now the TB upped the ante and said NO MORE AFGHANS CAN LEAVE - as they are needed for "rebuilding", so it looks like the TB have called spineless Joe out (again).
#notmypresident (see I can use that too Democrats)


----------



## Czech_pivo

CBH99 said:


> Probably more reliable and helpful than the ANA, in all fairness.
> 
> Shame we couldn’t have snapped our fingers and replaced our ANA (mostly, there were some good troops and good units out there) - but replaced the ANA with Northern Alliance troops.
> 
> That would have made for a lot more terrain kept and professionally controlled than when we left the ANSF to run things.  _Que predictable train wreck_ 💥


I’m counting the days until Dostum makes an appearance back in his old stomping grounds. That old Uzbek is probably hankering for one last kick at the can before he starts pushing up daisy’s.


----------



## CBH99

OldSolduer said:


> I think a gunfight is upcoming. Damn this is perilous.
> 
> What is China saying and what is Russia saying?


_China_ - _"Welcome to the new century, and that includes a stable relationship with China.  We are right next door, and can provide you with all the money, military equipment, and perks you could ask for in a stable relationship without many strings attached.  We can provide you with anything you need, stay out of your internal affairs, etc - as long as you do your part and brush off the west, so they aren't bothering any of us.  Have you heard of our new idea that we only extend to countries we want to be friends with?  Let's talk." _ 

_*<Start holding hands, as per Afghan custom, and walk off into the sunset together...>*


Russia - "Yes, we know the President of Afghanistan left the country, we were the ones who provided him with the wings to do so.  He showed up at the airport with a few SUVs stuffed full of cash - so much money actually, we couldn't fit it all in the helicopter as it weighed too much.  He had to leave 2 of the SUVs behind, but we helped him with those.  Why were we already here with an aircraft ready, waiting to fly him to safety?  Because we are here, and we are working..."

*<Paraphrased, yet almost verbatim, of the verbal statement they made shortly after President Ashraf Ghani showed up in UAE & people were asking how he got there>


🍿 *_


----------



## Kirkhill

Czech_pivo said:


> I’m counting the days until Dostum makes an appearance back in his old stomping grounds. That old Uzbek is probably hankering for one last kick at the can before he starts pushing up daisy’s.




But then there is this



> Son of legendary Afghan commander seeks 'settlement' over last anti-Taliban stronghold​Ahmad Massoud is part of the National Resistance Front of Afghanistan, but is seeking to reach a deal with the Taliban
> 
> ByCampbell MacDiarmid, MIDDLE EAST CORRESPONDENT23 August 2021 • 7:45pm
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Son of legendary Afghan commander seeks 'settlement' over last anti-Taliban stronghold
> 
> 
> Ahmad Massoud is part of the National Resistance Front of Afghanistan, but is seeking to reach a deal with the Taliban
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.telegraph.co.uk


----------



## Fishbone Jones

Altair said:


> It's one thing to have the ANA run in fear of the taliban, it's another for Europe, North America, NATO to turn tail and run.
> 
> Not saying stay indefinitely, but working on the timetable of the Taliban is just demeaning.


So how many Canadian and European soldiers are you willing to let die just so you can say 'Fuck You' to the taliban?


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Kirkhill said:


> But then there is this


He is weak and disorganized and the Taliban are strong so he is buying time. No deal will last to long.


----------



## KevinB

Kirkhill said:


> But then there is this


I suspect he's trying to play the reasonable one on the MSM, and paint the TB as unreasonable.

They mowed down about bunch of TB - claimed to be between 600 and 60, and when asked what the number was Massoud says, "600 or 60, they are Taliban so its a good start"


----------



## The Bread Guy

Interesting rationale for not extending the deadline from POTUS46 - highlights mine ....


> "President Joe Biden says the U.S.-led airlift from Kabul must finish by the August 31 deadline he set because of an increasing threat from a branch of the Islamic State terrorist group.  *There is an "acute and growing risk of an attack by a terrorist group known as ISIS-K," or Islamic State-Khorasan, the longer U.S. forces stay in the country, Biden said. * "Every day we're on the ground is another day we know that ISIS-K is seeking to target the airport and attack both U.S. and allied forces," he said ..."


----------



## KevinB

The Bread Guy said:


> Interesting rationale for not extending the deadline from POTUS46 - highlights mine ....


Must refrain from comment.


----------



## Mills Bomb

Honestly, what can the president really do about the Taliban deadline at this point?

From what I've gathered the general consensus is that the Taliban could start dropping mortars and rockets on that airfield at any time and make this airlift basically impossible, or just light the place up with small arms fire from nearby heavily populated civilian buildings causing total chaos, they have it surrounded and they have eyes on. They were more capable, or at least more motivated, than the ANA. Right now it seems pretty obvious who is in control unless I'm missing something. It certainly seems this withdrawal is so badly botched at this point, what other choice is there? It certainly seems getting out of there at this point, before it gets worse, is pretty much the only option short of a full on re-invasion on mass aerial bombing which is definitely not going to happen. Of course this is from a keyboard far away from Afghanistan, so perhaps some others may have different opinions, but it seems like this "withdrawal" just did not go well, does anyone have any other ideas?


----------



## Czech_pivo

Early I had asked if anyone knew anything about the Afghan troops stationed between the Tally and us at the airport, acting as a buffer zone at/near the North gate. Any sense if the US will take these guys with them on the last flights or just leave them to their fate? If leaving them, why the hell are these guys still there doing this job, why not big out now, in the chaos and hope for the best.


----------



## Altair

Czech_pivo said:


> Early I had asked if anyone knew anything about the Afghan troops stationed between the Tally and us at the airport, acting as a buffer zone at/near the North gate. Any sense if the US will take these guys with them on the last flights or just leave them to their fate? If leaving them, why the hell are these guys still there doing this job, why not big out now, in the chaos and hope for the best.


I don't know anything about this. 

Reading up on 2 Para, they make it seem like its them at the entry point and 5 feet out from them its the Taliban. 

So for them at least, there is no buffer zone.


----------



## Weinie

Mills Bomb said:


> Honestly, what can the president really do about the Taliban deadline at this point?
> 
> From what I've gathered the general consensus is that the Taliban could start dropping mortars and rockets on that airfield at any time and make this airlift basically impossible, or just light the place up with small arms fire from nearby heavily populated civilian buildings causing total chaos, they have it surrounded and they have eyes on. They were more capable, or at least more motivated, than the ANA. Right now it seems pretty obvious who is in control unless I'm missing something. It certainly seems this withdrawal is so badly botched at this point, what other choice is there? It certainly seems getting out of there at this point, before it gets worse, is pretty much the only option short of a full on re-invasion on mass aerial bombing which is definitely not going to happen. Of course this is from a keyboard far away from Afghanistan, so perhaps some others may have different opinions, but it seems like this "withdrawal" just did not go well, does anyone have any other ideas?


I suspect that there has been some negotiations behind the scenes, which explains why the Taliban haven't lit up the airport.  As well, it suits the Taliban to have  a 31 August deadline for withdrawal, with no actions before that date. It is a win/win for them.


----------



## Mills Bomb

Czech_pivo said:


> Early I had asked if anyone knew anything about the Afghan troops stationed between the Tally and us at the airport, acting as a buffer zone at/near the North gate. Any sense if the US will take these guys with them on the last flights or just leave them to their fate? If leaving them, why the hell are these guys still there doing this job, why not big out now, in the chaos and hope for the best.


I agree, but, it would probably make further negotiations tough at this point as well...


----------



## CBH99

Weinie said:


> I suspect that there has been some negotiations behind the scenes, which explains why the Taliban haven't lit up the airport.  As well, it suits the Taliban to have  a 31 August deadline for withdrawal, with no actions before that date. It is a win/win for them.


Agreed.  

It gives the west time to evacuate whoever we need to evacuate, and for the Taliban to consolidate & organize their forces in the city, for when their new government starts to implement its policies & goals.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Altair said:


> I don't know anything about this.
> 
> Reading up on 2 Para, they make it seem like its them at the entry point and 5 feet out from them its the Taliban.
> 
> So for them at least, there is no buffer zone.


I think I found my answer.
This is from yesterday and it talks about roughly 600 Afghan special forces at the airport, North gate I’ve read elsewhere, acting as a buffer between the Tally and us. US is considering taking them out with them at the end.









						Google News
					

Comprehensive up-to-date news coverage, aggregated from sources all over the world by Google News.




					news.google.com


----------



## CBH99

Czech_pivo said:


> Early I had asked if anyone knew anything about the Afghan troops stationed between the Tally and us at the airport, acting as a buffer zone at/near the North gate. Any sense if the US will take these guys with them on the last flights or just leave them to their fate? If leaving them, why the hell are these guys still there doing this job, why not big out now, in the chaos and hope for the best.


That is one hell of a good question.  

There has been some negotiations behind the scenes with the Taliban, hence the airport reopening and them not lighting everybody up/mortaring the flight line and crowds.  

Whether anybody negotiated an extraction on behalf of the ANA guys still assisting us around the airport, no idea.  (I mean the Taliban did promise not to retaliate against anybody who helped us after all…so they should be totally fine come September 1st… 😐😬)


----------



## CBH99

Czech_pivo said:


> I think I found my answer.
> This is from yesterday and it talks about roughly 600 Afghan special forces at the airport, North gate I’ve read elsewhere, acting as a buffer between the Tally and us. US is considering taking them out with them at the end.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Google News
> 
> 
> Comprehensive up-to-date news coverage, aggregated from sources all over the world by Google News.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> news.google.com


I hope so, as the Afghan special forces are one of the only elements of ANSF that have pulled their weight and have been genuinely effective.

My guess is they leave with the yanks.  Otherwise, you pose a great question - why stick around?


----------



## Weinie

CBH99 said:


> That is one hell of a good question.
> 
> There has been some negotiations behind the scenes with the Taliban, hence the airport reopening and them not lighting everybody up/mortaring the flight line and crowds.
> 
> Whether anybody negotiated an extraction on behalf of the ANA guys still assisting us around the airport, no idea. * (I mean the Taliban did promise not to retaliate against anybody who helped us after all…so they should be totally fine come September 1st… 😐😬)*


They fucking better, and if not, light them up hard.


----------



## OldSolduer

CBH99 said:


> Agreed.
> 
> It gives the west time to evacuate whoever we need to evacuate, and for the Taliban to consolidate & organize their forces in the city, for when their new government starts to implement its policies & goals.


Don’t forget the stoning of women, beheading of apostates and various other reforms. TV and radio strictly controlled if allowed at all.
Barefoot, pregnant and in the kitchen.


----------



## CBH99

OldSolduer said:


> Don’t forget the stoning of women, beheading of apostates and various other reforms. TV and radio strictly controlled if allowed at all.
> Barefoot, pregnant and in the kitchen.


Have to consolidate forces in the capital, get them organized to control entry points, checkpoints inside the city, and enough forces & equipment to slowly start  venturing out to reinforce and control surrounding areas.  

Evil pricks?  Absolutely.  But unfortunately ones who seem to have decent organizational skills.


----------



## ArmyRick

Anybody noticed the stunning silence from the "woke" or "progressive" crowd being silent on this whole situation in Afghanistan?

No demonstrations for womens rights, equality, LGBT acceptance, education, etc.


----------



## The Bread Guy

One detailed take from the inside  ....


> ... I am a three-star general in the Afghan Army. For 11 months, as commander of 215 Maiwand Corps, I led 15,000 men in combat operations against the Taliban in southwestern Afghanistan. I’ve lost hundreds of officers and soldiers. That’s why, as exhausted and frustrated as I am, I wanted to offer a practical perspective and defend the honor of the Afghan Army. I’m not here to absolve the Afghan Army of mistakes. But the fact is, many of us fought valiantly and honorably, only to be let down by American and Afghan leadership.
> 
> Two weeks ago, while battling to hold the southern city of Lashkar Gah from the Taliban, President Ashraf Ghani named me commander of Afghanistan’s special forces, the country’s most elite fighters. I reluctantly left my troops and arrived in Kabul on Aug. 15, ready to fight — unaware how bad the situation already was. Then Mr. Ghani handed me the added task of ensuring the security of Kabul. But I never even had a chance: The Taliban were closing in, and Mr. Ghani fled the country.
> 
> There is an enormous sense of betrayal here. Mr. Ghani’s hasty escape ended efforts to negotiate an interim agreement for a transition period with the Taliban that would have enabled us to hold the city and help manage evacuations. Instead, chaos ensued ...





> ... So why did the Afghan military collapse? The answer is threefold.  First, former President Donald Trump’s *February 2020 peace deal with the Taliban** in Doha doomed us.* It put an expiration date on American interest in the region. Second, *we lost contractor logistics and maintenance support critical to our combat operations*. Third, *the corruption** endemic in Mr. Ghani’s government that flowed to senior military leadership and long crippled our forces on the ground irreparably hobbled us* ...


Also attached in case link doesn't work for you.

The author's Twitter feed stops 8 Aug.


----------



## OldSolduer

ArmyRick said:


> Anybody noticed the stunning silence from the "woke" or "progressive" crowd being silent on this whole situation in Afghanistan?
> 
> No demonstrations for womens rights, equality, LGBT acceptance, education, etc.


Come to think of it….


----------



## Brad Sallows

> So how many Canadian and European soldiers are you willing to let die just so you can say 'Fuck You' to the taliban?



The last year-plus, the number of foreign soldiers has been relatively low, with relatively few fatalities, and the country was approximately stable.  Some have argued that an indefinite presence of that magnitude was bearable and worth the cost (not that they were paying the iron price part of it).

The 31 Aug deadline was set by Biden, not the Taliban.  They're just helping him stick to it.  They've probably seen him on TV and are worried he might forget.


----------



## Journeyman

If anyone is interested in the actual 29 Feb 2020 Trump/Taliban agreement on the withdrawal of US/Coalition forces, including timelines, it's available here.  Enjoy.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

ArmyRick said:


> Anybody noticed the stunning silence from the "woke" or "progressive" crowd being silent on this whole situation in Afghanistan?
> 
> No demonstrations for womens rights, equality, LGBT acceptance, education, etc.


Attacking Israel incessantly has exhausted the woke crowd and the massive closure of Starbucks and other safe spaces have left them emotionally shattered. Can't someone please think of the non-binary children!!!!


----------



## dapaterson

After twenty years, four US presidents, and trillions of dollars, we've successfully replaced the Taliban with the Taliban.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Journeyman said:


> If anyone is interested in the actual 29 Feb 2020 Trump/Taliban agreement on the withdrawal of US/Coalition forces, including timelines, it's available here.  Enjoy.


Thanks for that!  Still online, unlike the GOP's online bragging over said agreement


----------



## Altair

2 US lawmakers' Kabul trip prompts Biden administration fury
					

WASHINGTON (AP) — Two members of Congress flew unannounced into Kabul airport in the middle of the chaotic evacuation stunning State Department and U.S. military personnel who had to divert resources to provide security and information to the lawmakers, U.S.




					apnews.com
				




Troops on the ground must have loved this.


----------



## brihard

Altair said:


> 2 US lawmakers' Kabul trip prompts Biden administration fury
> 
> 
> WASHINGTON (AP) — Two members of Congress flew unannounced into Kabul airport in the middle of the chaotic evacuation stunning State Department and U.S. military personnel who had to divert resources to provide security and information to the lawmakers, U.S.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> apnews.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Troops on the ground must have loved this.


Sorta seems like a situation that’s been ripe for a bit of oversight and fact finding.


----------



## KevinB

Journeyman said:


> If anyone is interested in the actual 29 Feb 2020 Trump/Taliban agreement on the withdrawal of US/Coalition forces, including timelines, it's available here.  Enjoy.


Do I get to sue for breach of contract?


brihard said:


> Sorta seems like a situation that’s been ripe for a bit of oversight and fact finding.


Just a tad.



Mills Bomb said:


> Honestly, what can the president really do about the Taliban deadline at this point?
> 
> From what I've gathered the general consensus is that the Taliban could start dropping mortars and rockets on that airfield at any time and make this airlift basically impossible, or just light the place up with small arms fire from nearby heavily populated civilian buildings causing total chaos, they have it surrounded and they have eyes on. They were more capable, or at least more motivated, than the ANA. Right now it seems pretty obvious who is in control unless I'm missing something. It certainly seems this withdrawal is so badly botched at this point, what other choice is there? It certainly seems getting out of there at this point, before it gets worse, is pretty much the only option short of a full on re-invasion on mass aerial bombing which is definitely not going to happen. Of course this is from a keyboard far away from Afghanistan, so perhaps some others may have different opinions, but it seems like this "withdrawal" just did not go well, does anyone have any other ideas?


It took the Northern Alliance with 5th SFG assistance (and OGA personnel) less than two weeks to remove the Taliban after 9/11
  There are currently more assets in theatre than then.
IF the USG had the will - clearing the TB would not take long -- but it could be a little messy.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

overflights by B-52s at 10,000' would do a lot to convince the TB not to be to stupid.


----------



## KevinB

Colin Parkinson said:


> overflights by B-52s at 10,000' would do a lot to convince the TB not to be to stupid.


Honestly I'd put those in the reserve as the BUFF's can loiter around the Pakistan border... 

The Little Birds at the Airport can do a ton of stuff in both urban and more open rural areas, without the massive issues of significant collateral damage.   Plus the various coalition SOF have the ability to surgically strike TB - while the 82nd, Marine and British Paras can wipe out any TB near the airport and then expand the bubble -- plus I would assume there is a bunch of ISR assets around.

The TB seems to now have ensured most of their forces in direct contact are older (assumably less volatile) and no doubt have orders not to give Western forces any reason to go active.

It appears that from most reports there is no way in hell that the evac will be done by 31 Aug.
     IF President Biden orders a pullout before all Americans are secure - I don't think he will survive till 1 Sept as President - the nation while definitely divided won't accept a CiC who cut and run leaving our citizens behind - and few would accept leaving our Afghan allies behind either.

So there is a rock and a hard place problem for both the TB and JB -- the TB drew a line in the sand - and its an unreasonable one that will have massive repercussions globally.


----------



## OldSolduer

KevinB said:


> IF the USG had the will - clearing the TB would not take long -- but it could be a little messy.


Highlighted first area - it does not and NATO does not.

Second area - politicians don't like "messy" unless its a Clinton messy...ya know?


----------



## Brad Sallows

Provided people are already being killed, short of renewed war there's always the Soleimani Solution to apply pressure.  To paraphrase, nothing concentrates the minds of leaders and generals as the knowledge that they are the cannon fodder.


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> I suspect he's trying to play the reasonable one on the MSM, and paint the TB as unreasonable.
> 
> They mowed down about bunch of TB - claimed to be between 600 and 60, and when asked what the number was Massoud says, "600 or 60, they are Taliban so its a good start"



I suspect that the gameplan just now is to hold on until the last plane has left HKIA and see what the Taliban does next.  If they show signs of playing nice than Massoud will likely be an orphan.  On the other hand, if the more radical TB youngsters slip the leash then Massoud could find himself with friends - friends that, perhaps, would prefer not to be seen.


----------



## KevinB

Brad Sallows said:


> Provided people are already being killed, short of renewed war there's always the Soleimani Solution to apply pressure.  To paraphrase, nothing concentrates the minds of leaders and generals as the knowledge that they are the cannon fodder.


Thats was the Orange Man answer -- the Cadaver doesn't do that


----------



## dimsum

I mean...it's not the worst name.  









						Afghan baby named ‘Reach’ after the Air Force C-17 she was born on
					

An Afghan girl born on an Air Force C-17 was named ‘Reach,’ after the jet that brought her and her mother to Ramstein Air Base.




					taskandpurpose.com


----------



## Jarnhamar

dimsum said:


> I mean...it's not the worst name.


_Halo vibes_


----------



## Weinie

dimsum said:


> I mean...it's not the worst name.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Afghan baby named ‘Reach’ after the Air Force C-17 she was born on
> 
> 
> An Afghan girl born on an Air Force C-17 was named ‘Reach,’ after the jet that brought her and her mother to Ramstein Air Base.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> taskandpurpose.com


It's probably good her Mom didn't fly out on a Herc.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Not promising when 3 of the #FiveEyes say, "don't go to the airport, m'kay?"


> Australia has joined the United Kingdom and United States governments in warning citizens away from Kabul airport amid serious new terror threats.
> Australians and Afghan visa holders have been urged not to travel to Kabul airport where rescue flights have been the only passage out of the war-torn nation.
> While about 2650 people have been rescued from Afghanistan as part of Australian operations, the window is rapidly shutting for those still stranded in the country.
> The Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade issued new advice on Thursday as the situation deteriorated further in the Afghan capital ...


Edited to add:  make that 4 out of 5.


----------



## MilEME09

Taliban seem to know how to mock their enemies atleast


----------



## CBH99

MilEME09 said:


> View attachment 66198
> 
> Taliban seem to know how to mock their enemies atleast


Mocking their enemy is one thing.  They clearly don’t know history very well.

For a group that claims to be religious, and loyal to what they believe are the true values of their faith — if they knew what the Japanese were doing both before and during WW2, they wouldn’t be mocking the US.  


Plenty to mock.  Poor taste on this one though


----------



## Czech_pivo

Question - keep reading on and on about the alleged grave threats to the Kabul airport by ISIS-K and how this is dictating that pressing need to wrap things up at the airport ASAP.  Is this a legitimate concern or a fallback as to why the US et al won't attempt to continue the exodus up to or past the 31st to get out as many as possible? I mean if ISIS-K and the Tally are such sworn enemies as the press is trying to tell us, why doesn't the US share its intelligence about these possible attacks directly with the Tally and have the Tally take out ISIS-K  -  the old enemy of my enemy is my friend mantra?  I would think that the Tally would jump at the chance to kill ISIS-K right in the heart of Kabul to send a strong message to them.


----------



## RangerRay

Well that’s that then. We’re done.



			https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-afghanistan-last-flight-1.6153899
		


I don’t care what anyone says, this is not a good look for us.


----------



## Czech_pivo

RangerRay said:


> Well that’s that then. We’re done.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-afghanistan-last-flight-1.6153899
> 
> 
> 
> I don’t care what anyone says, this is not a good look for us.


So we left 5 days earlier than the 31st? If we are only flying 2 C-17's a day in/out of Kabul, then our presence on the ground was likely never bigger than 2 full plane loads of C-17's available seatbelts, 188X2.  If it was that small, then why the rush to get out 5 days early?  From where I'm sitting and based on the limited information available, this looks bad. I find it hard to believe that if we stay another 3 days that we couldn't have gotten more of our people out.


----------



## CBH99

RangerRay said:


> Well that’s that then. We’re done.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-afghanistan-last-flight-1.6153899
> 
> 
> 
> I don’t care what anyone says, this is not a good look for us.


So the deadline is not until Tuesday.  

We still have citizens in country, along with people who are approved for visas/immigration here.  We still have air assets available to us, including C-17s, a C-130 or two, a Polaris, and whatever civilian airliners have been contracted out.  

Why are we wrapping things up today, and not on sat, Sunday?  

(Unless it is at the US’s request as they prepare to end operations & depart Tuesday, and need the runway & taxi ways for their own aircraft.  That I can understand and makes sense, as there is only one runway.  They do have 6000+ military on the ground after all.)


----------



## suffolkowner

So much for doing it alone with out the US. We don't even finish it. Maybe we are not taking enough on our flights to justify the runway space? It's a bad look though. 

Our performance on this issue really necessitates a hard look at ourselves. If this is the best we can do? Hopefully the rest of the foreign nationals find their way out safely and we continue to work on a solution for those Afghans that we can.

Canada is not back it would appear


----------



## Czech_pivo

CBH99 said:


> So the deadline is not until Tuesday.
> 
> We still have citizens in country, along with people who are approved for visas/immigration here.  We still have air assets available to us, including C-17s, a C-130 or two, a Polaris, and whatever civilian airliners have been contracted out.
> 
> Why are we wrapping things up today, and not on sat, Sunday?
> 
> (Unless it is at the US’s request as they prepare to end operations & depart Tuesday, and need the runway & taxi ways for their own aircraft.  That I can understand and makes sense, as there is only one runway.  They do have 6000+ military on the ground after all.)


Let's say the US needs 85 C-17 flights to remove all personal and equipment over 4 days. That's 96hrs, now let's say, for whatever reason the US will only use the runway during daylight hours (currently its 13hrs/day), that brings it down to 52hrs. Now lets say that all of the Allies on the ground have the same amount of flights to perform, 85 flights - that's 170 flights in total over 52hrs. That works out to be less than 3.5 flights per hr. Sounds pretty doable to me.  If so, our puny 2 flights a day are going to make much of a difference if we decided to stay another 2-4 days to get more people out.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Cheeky .... *"Taliban asks U.S. to retain embassy in Kabul, guarantees security"* (JPN media)


----------



## Remius

The Bread Guy said:


> Cheeky .... *"Taliban asks U.S. to retain embassy in Kabul, guarantees security"* (JPN media)


They want legitimacy.  Having the US embassy there gives them that’s.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Remius said:


> They want legitimacy.  Having the US embassy there gives them that’s.


Maybe we should as well.  Our Ambassador can be Monsef.


----------



## dimsum

Czech_pivo said:


> So we left 5 days earlier than the 31st? If we are only flying 2 C-17's a day in/out of Kabul, then our presence on the ground was likely never bigger than 2 full plane loads of C-17's available seatbelts, 188X2.  If it was that small, then why the rush to get out 5 days early?  From where I'm sitting and based on the limited information available, this looks bad. I find it hard to believe that if we stay another 3 days that we couldn't have gotten more of our people out.



One of the flights on the 24th had over 500 passengers onboard.









						RCAF operates largest evacuation flight from Kabul since Op Aegis began - Skies Mag
					

Canadian aircraft have conducted 13 flights and airlifted 1,700 Canadians and eligible Afghans from Kabul thus far. The most recent flight carried 506 people out of Afghanistan.




					skiesmag.com
				






CBH99 said:


> (Unless it is at the US’s request as they prepare to end operations & depart Tuesday, and need the runway & taxi ways for their own aircraft. That I can understand and makes sense, as there is only one runway. They do have 6000+ military on the ground after all.)



France, etc are also leaving around now.  That would make sense since it'll take time for the US to get all of its remaining troops out as well.

And to no one's surprise:









						Kabul airport attack kills 60 Afghans, 13 US troops
					

KABUL, Afghanistan (AP) — Two suicide bombers and gunmen attacked crowds of Afghans flocking to Kabul's airport Thursday, transforming a scene of desperation into one of horror in the waning days of an airlift for those fleeing the Taliban takeover.




					apnews.com


----------



## Remius

Czech_pivo said:


> Maybe we should as well.  Our Ambassador can be Monsef.


So about Monsef. 

I don't think for a second she wants to friends with the Taliban.  LPC detractors will chew on that bone as predicted. 

I have no reason to doubt that she was attempting to use cultural language.  (there is debate about that though)

But, a few things strike me as tone deaf about it.

1. Context is everything and perception.  In this context with what is going on, even if culturally it fits (again debatable but I'm not enough of an expert to agree or disagree) it was stupid.  That tweet was more for a domestic audience than for the Taliban. 

2. Why would anyone think that an Afgan ex pat *woman* who is in a position of power in a country that was at war with the Taliban, would be able to convene a message to the Taliban that would be well received? Seems to me that it would just add oil to the fire or at the very least be dismissed outright. As I said in point 1, I think this was for a domestic audience which again leads to the question of how this message was crafted and who actually vetted it.


----------



## MilEME09

Remius said:


> So about Monsef.
> 
> I don't think for a second she wants to friends with the Taliban.  LPC detractors will chew on that bone as predicted.
> 
> I have no reason to doubt that she was attempting to use cultural language.  (there is debate about that though)
> 
> But, a few things strike me as tone deaf about it.
> 
> 1. Context is everything and perception.  In this context with what is going on, even if culturally it fits (again debatable but I'm not enough of an expert to agree or disagree) it was stupid.  That tweet was more for a domestic audience than for the Taliban.
> 
> 2. Why would anyone think that an Afgan ex pat *woman* who is in a position of power in a country that was at war with the Taliban, would be able to convene a message to the Taliban that would be well received? Seems to me that it would just add oil to the fire or at the very least be dismissed outright. As I said in point 1, I think this was for a domestic audience which again leads to the question of how this message was crafted and who actually vetted it.


Agreed, cause let's be honest do you really think the taliban care what a woman in Canada has to say? They do not care about what a woman in the same house of them says. Given the tweet was for the domestic audience, the choice of words was poor.


----------



## Bruce Monkhouse

Suicide bomber at the airport gates.......time  too release the hounds for a day or so.


----------



## Czech_pivo

MilEME09 said:


> Agreed, cause let's be honest do you really think the taliban care what a woman in Canada has to say? They do not care about what a woman in the same house of them says. Given the tweet was for the domestic audience, the choice of words was poor.


Its the phase 'our brothers in the Taliban' vs 'my brothers in the Taliban' that is giving me the shudders. The use of 'our' denotes that all Canadians (since a current Cabinet Minister in the Federal Government represents ALL Canadians) are calling them 'brothers'.  If she is using it in a 'cultural' aspect, again it should be the word 'my', not 'our' because though she is a Muslim she shouldn't be assuming that ALL Muslims would agree that its a cultural phase or would want to be associated with a bunch of 7th century living individuals.
This isn't the first time this Minister has misspoken on a major issue.  Sure is getting alot of 2nd chances.....


----------



## brihard

There’s long distance video of the explosions, and close up video of the aftermath. It’s gonna be a lot more than 13 dead… looks like a couple of good sized SVBIEDs.

EDIT: Two attacks. One on Abbey Gate, the other on a nearby hotel previously used by the US to stage evacs. US troops have been wounded and exchanged fire, possible complex attack.


----------



## Fishbone Jones

During her announcement, I found the pause between the words 'our' and 'brothers' telling. She was reading from a script (watch her eyes) and she got to the word 'brothers' and hesitated as if she was mulling over whether to use the word. There may have been another reason for her hesitation, I don't  know what her thought process was. However, it was obviously a hot button word for her to hesitate on. I wonder if she wrote the script or whether she was reading someone else's script for the first time. Either way she knew it was a sticky word. And no, I'm  not buying the government excuse that it was a harmless cultural reference. It was put there on purpose, IMO.


----------



## Brad Sallows

Other Canadian politicians use the phrase "our Christian brethren" on behalf of Canada all the time and it excites no comment.


----------



## Oldgateboatdriver

I don't know where you live, Brad, but i'm closing in on 63 and nowhere in Canada have I ever heard a federal, provincial or municipal politician refer to any group as their "Christian brethren".


----------



## MilEME09

Couple unverified posts I've seen on Facebook claim around 700 people trying to get to Canada were left behind. That would of been an extra two flights, shame we couldn't get them all out


----------



## Brad Sallows

> nowhere in Canada have I ever heard



I was being facetious.  If anyone did, it would be inappropriate and people opposed to any hint of church-in-state would blow a gasket.  Equally, it is inappropriate for any politician to use a framing for any other religion.  That the reference was to Taliban is just a multiplier.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Remius said:


> They want legitimacy.  Having the US embassy there gives them that’s.


and a form of hostages that you don't have to feed


----------



## suffolkowner

I wonder if we were just getting in the way in Kabul. Why such a large discrepancy between Canadian flights and between what we were taking versus the US on the C17's. I thought I read that we were not capable of in flight refueling and that was a limiting factor but next thing you know we can handle 500?


----------



## Altair

suffolkowner said:


> I wonder if we were just getting in the way in Kabul. Why such a large discrepancy between Canadian flights and between what we were taking versus the US on the C17's. I thought I read that we were not capable of in flight refueling and that was a limiting factor but next thing you know we can handle 500?


Hard to say, but the Dutch, Danes, Poles and Belgians have all had their last flights out, and the French will be done by tomorrow.

Seems like everyone is clearing out to leave room for the Americans to get all their troops out.


----------



## Good2Golf

suffolkowner said:


> I wonder if we were just getting in the way in Kabul. Why such a large discrepancy between Canadian flights and between what we were taking versus the US on the C17's. I thought I read that we were not capable of in flight refueling and that was a limiting factor but next thing you know we can handle 500?


Other than a 60% weight-loss, something else entered the calculus…hint: not aircraft performance, nor aircrew willingness to ‘load em up!’


----------



## Czech_pivo

Altair said:


> Hard to say, but the Dutch, Danes, Poles and Belgians have all had their last flights out, and the French will be done by tomorrow.
> 
> Seems like everyone is clearing out to leave room for the Americans to get all their troops out.


any thoughts of the US taking with them each and every airworthy helo still on the tarmac at Kabul and anything else of military value, or  will they just blow them all up in place?


----------



## Altair

Czech_pivo said:


> any thoughts of the US taking with them each and every airworthy helo still on the tarmac at Kabul and anything else of military value, or  will they just blow them all up in place?


Boom.


----------



## QV

Good2Golf said:


> Other than a 60% weight-loss, something else entered the calculus…hint: not aircraft performance, nor aircrew willingness to ‘load em up!’


I sure as hell hope it wasn't available seatbelts.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

I find blaming the attacks on ISIS far to convenient, I suspect the Taliban using it as a way to ensure the US does not stay.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Multiple US service members killed in Kabul airport attack​
Sad.









						August 26, 2021 Afghanistan-Taliban news
					

At least 13 US service members and a number of Afghan civilians were killed in an attack at Kabul's airport, the Pentagon says. Follow here for the latest news.




					www.cnn.com


----------



## KevinB

Colin Parkinson said:


> I find blaming the attacks on ISIS far to convenient, I suspect the Taliban using it as a way to ensure the US does not stay.


ISIS-K is Al-Q, despite Taliban 2.0 claims - they are buddies both armed and trained by the ISI (Pakistan) - and many members of one are members of the other.

Taliban have had multiple checkpoints - searching everyone coming in -- but VBIED's, Armed attackers got in "accidentally" and only managed to kill US Troops, US Civilians and Afghans supporting the US Forces -- this is something only Joe Biden could believe wasn't an act of the Taliban...


The only reason ISIS-K exists is to make the Taliban 2.0 look moderate.


----------



## Kirkhill

KevinB said:


> ISIS-K is Al-Q, despite Taliban 2.0 claims - they are buddies both armed and trained by the ISI (Pakistan) - and many members of one are members of the other.
> 
> Taliban have had multiple checkpoints - searching everyone coming in -- but VBIED's, Armed attackers got in "accidentally" and only managed to kill US Troops, US Civilians and Afghans supporting the US Forces -- this is something only Joe Biden could believe wasn't an act of the Taliban...
> 
> 
> The only reason ISIS-K exists is to make the Taliban 2.0 look moderate.



Haganah-Palmach-Irgun-Lehi.

Sinn Fein-IRA-Provos


----------



## Czech_pivo

Hearing reports of 12 US KIA and 52 wounded. That’s one hell of a suicide vest.


----------



## KevinB

Czech_pivo said:


> Hearing reports of 12 US KIA and 52 wounded. That’s one hell of a suicide vest.


2 Vehicle borne EID - as part of a complex attack against 2 gates.
Again - apparently "Slipped through" the Taliban net


----------



## OldSolduer

KevinB said:


> 2 Vehicle borne EID - as part of a complex attack against 2 gates.
> Again - apparently "Slipped through" the Taliban net


Sure it did….


----------



## KevinB

Is it wrong that I think a 15MT or so device targeted on Islamabad might be a good response?
 Perhaps an overreaction - but I'm in favor of using thermobarics all the way from Kabul to Islamabad - make a glass road - then conduction summary execution of all ISI personnel involved in pro TB/ISIS-K operations.


----------



## Good2Golf

KevinB said:


> Is it wrong that I think a 15MT or so device targeted on Islamabad might be a good response?


If only we had programmed in self-destruct ‘God code’ into the CANDU reactors we built for Pakistan…. 🤔


----------



## MilEME09

KevinB said:


> Is it wrong that I think a 15MT or so device targeted on Islamabad might be a good response?


Seriously, we know ISI has been training these guys, and ignore their training camps except when the odd commander goes rouge and attacks the ISI. Why did we not hit Pakistan? Yes I am aware they have nukes, but I am sure we also have more ability to neutralize the threat they pose, I am sure western intelligence knows exactly where all their weapons are.


----------



## KevinB

Good2Golf said:


> If only we had programmed in self-destruct ‘God code’ into the CANDU reactors we built for Pakistan…. 🤔


I think we may have some folks who could do that with a green light.
  I mean Iranian missiles can blow up 'accidentally' why not a power plant.


MilEME09 said:


> Seriously, we know ISI has been training these guys, and ignore their training camps except when the odd commander goes rouge and attacks the ISI. Why did we not hit Pakistan? Yes I am aware they have nukes, but I am sure we also have more ability to neutralize the threat they pose, I am sure western intelligence knows exactly where all their weapons are.


The issue is less with Pakistan as an entity - but the ISI, and the faction of it that is probably the worst state sponsored terror actor that everyone wants to ignore.

 "De-Nuking" Pakistan would be a problem - I am reasonably sure the capability exists - but it won't be pretty or precise.  As while the sites can be neutralized 'easy enough' the forces to do that would require a large security force - and there would be some significant clashes with the Pakistani Army - that would be messy.


----------



## Czech_pivo

MilEME09 said:


> Seriously, we know ISI has been training these guys, and ignore their training camps except when the odd commander goes rouge and attacks the ISI. Why did we not hit Pakistan? Yes I am aware they have nukes, but I am sure we also have more ability to neutralize the threat they pose, I am sure western intelligence knows exactly where all their weapons are.


They are close to becoming a rogue nation and a failed state.


----------



## MilEME09

Czech_pivo said:


> They are close to becoming a rogue nation and a failed state.


Failed state with nukes that is inside china's pocket. We really need to stop ignoring root causes. I can only speculate how different the last 20 years might of been if we took the ISI out of the picture, covertly of course.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

KevinB said:


> ISIS-K is Al-Q, despite Taliban 2.0 claims - they are buddies both armed and trained by the ISI (Pakistan) - and many members of one are members of the other.
> 
> Taliban have had multiple checkpoints - searching everyone coming in -- but VBIED's, Armed attackers got in "accidentally" and only managed to kill US Troops, US Civilians and Afghans supporting the US Forces -- this is something only Joe Biden could believe wasn't an act of the Taliban...
> 
> 
> The only reason ISIS-K exists is to make the Taliban 2.0 look moderate.


Technically the Taliban Leadership are Deobandists and the ISIS Leadership is Jihadi-Salafi Islam, so they have ideology differences.  Deobandists have more or less adopted Whabbism, whereas Jihadi-Salafi sort of rejects Whabbism as to moderate. The rank and file likley just go with who pays better, wins more and has the best weapons.


----------



## OldSolduer

Colin Parkinson said:


> Technically the Taliban Leadership are Deobandists and the ISIS Leadership is Jihadi-Salafi Islam, so they have ideology differences.  Deobandists have more or less adopted Whabbism, whereas Jihadi-Salafi sort of rejects Whabbism as to moderate. The rank and file likley just go with who pays better, wins more and has the best weapons.


That 15 MT bomb sounds like a good start.


----------



## Mills Bomb

Closing this mission down and entrusting the Taliban to secure the outer perimeter of the airport seems like such a ridiculous plan by the politicians and planners it seems as if they essentially doomed this thing before it even got started. We've had a lot of soldiers over there who told us over and over that the ANA would fail, we should have at least had some kind of contingency plan if that happened quicker than we thought - or perhaps we should have never left behind an Army that we knew would at best maybe last a couple months or a year? Fast forward and we have one airport surrounded by Taliban to get everyone out...What were they thinking that lead us to this... If as Canadians we try to push the blame entirely on Biden / USA, how can we ignore that our politicians essentially did nothing to get our people out in time... How did we not see this coming?

It seems as if with the Taliban controlling the city, there was basically no avoiding this attack, the Taliban let all the ISIS guys out of jail as soon as they rolled in, what did we think was going to happen? I would think under normal times this would be an an act of war and breach of the first part of the peace agreement made with them "Guarantees and enforcement mechanisms that will prevent the use of the soil of Afghanistan by any group or individual against the security of the United States and its allies".

As concerning this entire thing is, my hat off to all those that are the ground right now trying to deal with this BS and get as many people out as possible despite all that has happened, godspeed and hopefully no more casualties.


----------



## MilEME09

At least 73 killed in Kabul airport attack, Canadian military members uninjured
					

Two suicide bombers and gunmen attacked crowds of Afghans flocking to Kabul's airport Thursday, transforming a scene of desperation into one of horror in the waning days of an airlift for those fleeing the Taliban takeover. The attacks killed at least 60 Afghans and 13 U.S. troops, Afghan and...



					www.ctvnews.ca
				




Death toll even high now, why in the hell did we trust the taliban with security, of course they will fuck us over


----------



## Halifax Tar

Mills Bomb said:


> Closing this mission down and entrusting the Taliban to secure the outer perimeter of the airport seems like such a ridiculous plan by the politicians and planners it seems as if they essentially doomed this thing before it even got started. We've had a lot of soldiers over there who told us over and over that the ANA would fail, we should have at least had some kind of contingency plan if that happened quicker than we thought - or perhaps we should have never left behind an Army that we knew would at best maybe last a couple months or a year? Fast forward and we have one airport surrounded by Taliban to get everyone out...What were they thinking that lead us to this... If as Canadians we try to push the blame entirely on Biden / USA, how can we ignore that our politicians essentially did nothing to get our people out in time... How did we not see this coming?
> 
> It seems as if with the Taliban controlling the city, there was basically no avoiding this attack, the Taliban let all the ISIS guys out of jail as soon as they rolled in, what did we think was going to happen? I would think under normal times this would be an an act of war and breach of the first part of the peace agreement made with them "Guarantees and enforcement mechanisms that will prevent the use of the soil of Afghanistan by any group or individual against the security of the United States and its allies".
> 
> As concerning this entire thing is, my hat off to all those that are the ground right now trying to deal with this BS and get as many people out as possible despite all that has happened, godspeed and hopefully no more casualties.


Those politicians were fed inaccurate information to make those horrible decisions from who ?  

The military and NATO isn't Scott free on this.


----------



## Brad Sallows

The authors whose "this is going well, actually" pieces were published yesterday and today have early leads in the Bad Timing Awards.


----------



## CBH99

MilEME09 said:


> At least 73 killed in Kabul airport attack, Canadian military members uninjured
> 
> 
> Two suicide bombers and gunmen attacked crowds of Afghans flocking to Kabul's airport Thursday, transforming a scene of desperation into one of horror in the waning days of an airlift for those fleeing the Taliban takeover. The attacks killed at least 60 Afghans and 13 U.S. troops, Afghan and...
> 
> 
> 
> www.ctvnews.ca
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Death toll even high now, why in the hell did we trust the taliban with security, of course they will fuck us over


We didn't have a choice.  The Taliban were in the city long before they made their presence known, and had the initiative on their own terms when our "Oh shit, we should probably get our people out of there" light bulb went off.

Dozens of NATO aircraft flying in to evacuate folks, and massive crowds rushing the tarmac posing a threat to aircraft taxiing and taking off.  


At the time, having the Taliban hold the crowds back & control the flow into the airport via specific access points was extremely helpful.  It was either that, or we engage each other at a time when NATO troops were still rushing over to assist.  Very much the lesser of two evils, and the events of today aren't surprising to any of us.  (Ugly situation all around)


----------



## MilEME09

CBH99 said:


> We didn't have a choice.  The Taliban were in the city long before they made their presence known, and had the initiative on their own terms when our "Oh shit, we should probably get our people out of there" light bulb went off.
> 
> Dozens of NATO aircraft flying in to evacuate folks, and massive crowds rushing the tarmac posing a threat to aircraft taxiing and taking off.
> 
> 
> At the time, having the Taliban hold the crowds back & control the flow into the airport via specific access points was extremely helpful.  It was either that, or we engage each other at a time when NATO troops were still rushing over to assist.  Very much the lesser of two evils, and the events of today aren't surprising to any of us.  (Ugly situation all around)


Absolutely, there was no clean way out of this, that said in hind sight a larger security perimeter might of helped but being down town Kabul makes that near impossible. The fact this attack didn't happen till now is a miracle but it does make me wonder why now when we will be gone in only 4 days.


----------



## brihard

Have we got confirmation yet that all CAF are OK? There’s video of our guys in that spot up til quite recently.


----------



## CBH99

Mills Bomb said:


> Fast forward and we have one airport surrounded by Taliban to get everyone out...What were they thinking that lead us to this... If as Canadians we try to push the blame entirely on Biden / USA, how can we ignore that our politicians essentially did nothing to get our people out in time... How did we not see this coming?


They weren't thinking at all.  Period.

And I am not trying to sound smug, or like I am taking cheap shots.  Our combat mission ended in 2011, and our interpreters volunteered to work with us on the condition that they & their families would be relocated to Canada speedily.  That didn't happen in the slightest.

When I say they weren't thinking, again - I'm not being smug.  I guarantee you that Justin Trudeau has sat quietly at his table, deep in thought about "How do we get our interpreters out?  They were supposed to be out in the 2011-2012 timeframe..."  exactly 0 times.  Even now, I suspect 0 shits are given minus it's now an election, and he didn't give the embassy staff in country much thought until a security briefing one morning perhaps about 2 weeks ago.



If they had been thinking, they would have evacuated a majority of our embassy staff about a month & a half ago when the media was starting to consistently report that the Taliban were coming back, in strength, organized, and successfully engaging ANSF.  

It is not entirely Biden's fault in the slightest, nor even the USA.  *We* hired and employed our interpreters and contracted staff to work at *our* embassy.  *We promised a speedy move to Canada* shortly after, which we failed to deliver on.  We could have moved them ages ago, as *we seem to be able to grant visas & refugee status to other Afghans and get them here*...just not the ones we promised.

And we did see this coming.  I think we all did.  The folks in Ottawa who are preoccupied with meaningless, woke, petty crap?  I think they are the only ones genuinely surprised.


0.02


----------



## CBH99

brihard said:


> Have we got confirmation yet that all CAF are OK? There’s video of our guys in that spot up til quite recently.


There was a released statement confirming that there were no CAF casualties.  I'll post the link later tonight.


----------



## MilEME09

Biden says he's ordered plans to strike ISIS-K
					

At least 13 US service members and a number of Afghan civilians were killed in an attack at Kabul's airport, the Pentagon says. Follow here for the latest news.




					www.cnn.com
				





Personally I would of struck pre emptively if I knew of a credible threat, it's Afghanistan, not new York. I'm sure the taliban would of been okay with striking a mutual enemy.


----------



## KevinB

Colin Parkinson said:


> Technically the Taliban Leadership are Deobandists and the ISIS Leadership is Jihadi-Salafi Islam, so they have ideology differences.  Deobandists have more or less adopted Whabbism, whereas Jihadi-Salafi sort of rejects Whabbism as to moderate. The rank and file likley just go with who pays better, wins more and has the best weapons.


Splitting hairs - they are mutually supportive in most cases - as they hate us, the Shia's and pretty much everyone else.


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> Biden says he's ordered plans to strike ISIS-K
> 
> 
> At least 13 US service members and a number of Afghan civilians were killed in an attack at Kabul's airport, the Pentagon says. Follow here for the latest news.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnn.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Personally I would of struck pre emptively if I knew of a credible threat, it's Afghanistan, not new York. I'm sure the taliban would of been okay with striking a mutual enemy.


Mutual enemy is us -- while I am sure the TB leadership would have appreciated this not happen , as they are trying to portray themselves as Taliban 2.0 "The Moderate TB" the young members and a lot of middle aged fighters don't see ISIS-K as the enemy -- the TB put the Haqqani group in charge of security for Kabul -- they are extreme violent side - and are viewed as much more of a threat to Westerners (and moderate Afghans) than ISIS-K


----------



## Jarnhamar

Remius said:


> So about Monsef.
> 
> I don't think for a second she wants to friends with the Taliban.  LPC detractors will chew on that bone as predicted.
> 
> I have no reason to doubt that she was attempting to use cultural language.  (there is debate about that though)
> 
> But, a few things strike me as tone deaf about it.



It wasn't tone deaf it was completely moronic and stupid.

It's a slap in the face to the families of the Taliban's victims full stop.

The only imaginable scenario where a Canadian citizen would call the Taliban brothers are Taliban sympathizers.


----------



## Bruce Monkhouse

No words....









						Rupa Subramanya: Trudeau blames Afghans for not getting to the airport fast enough
					

But it’s clear O’Toole was going to bat for Afghan interpreters who helped Canada long before the issue hit the headlines




					nationalpost.com


----------



## CBH99

KevinB said:


> Mutual enemy is us -- while I am sure the TB leadership would have appreciated this not happen , as they are trying to portray themselves as Taliban 2.0 "The Moderate TB" the young members and a lot of middle aged fighters don't see ISIS-K as the enemy -- the TB put the Haqqani group in charge of security for Kabul -- they are extreme violent side - and are viewed as much more of a threat to Westerners (and moderate Afghans) than ISIS-K


I knew they were working with the Haqqani network, but I did not realize they had put them in charge of security for Kabul.  Ooooffff…

You know you are violent psychos when someone would rather run away KNOWING they will be kidnapped by the Taliban, but preferring it as they are by far the better option.  😬


----------



## OldSolduer

I've had a few hours to think about this.

An insurgency can bide its time. I used to brief officers/WOs and Sgts on the intricacy of insurgency. 

The Taliban tried to fight NATO on NATO terms and failed miserably - so they all went back to Kandahar, Kabul etc and waited, and waited. Then when the timing was right they reappeared in strength. 
The Taliban used the time to infiltrate the halls of government and their military.


----------



## SupersonicMax

As the Talibans have been saying for a while, at least since 2004, « Americans have the watches, we have the time. »


----------



## Colin Parkinson

SupersonicMax said:


> As the Talibans have been saying for a while, at least since 2004, « Americans have the watches, we have the time. »


The Taliban may have had the time but are acutely aware they don't have revenue and know they are going to struggle to get enough to run the country and keep everyone bought.


----------



## Weinie

Colin Parkinson said:


> The Taliban may have had the time but are acutely aware they don't have revenue and know they are going to struggle to get enough to run the country and keep everyone bought.


This.

Whatever version of Taliban emerges, there will be an expectation/demand that along with their assumption of control, they keep the wheels of society running.

That means food, hospitals, roads, water and sewage, and other stuff that even medieval-imposed/constrained society has come to expect. I didn't include justice and police because I suspect they will impose their own system. But without the first four above, their society will quickly disintegrate into discord and civil war.


----------



## YZT580

Colin Parkinson said:


> The Taliban may have had the time but are acutely aware they don't have revenue and know they are going to struggle to get enough to run the country and keep everyone bought.


Oh really?  The paving trucks from China are probably already starting to move towards the border to continue the Silk Road construction


----------



## Remius

Jarnhamar said:


> It wasn't tone deaf it was completely moronic and stupid.
> 
> It's a slap in the face to the families of the Taliban's victims full stop.
> 
> The only imaginable scenario where a Canadian citizen would call the Taliban brothers are Taliban sympathizers.


You left out the part where I said it was stupid…meh.


----------



## Jarnhamar

Remius said:


> You left out the part where I said it was stupid…meh.


Hey Remius, yes you're right, sorry. I tried to go back earlier and edit my comment but it was too late. I wanted to point out I was responding more towards what I've seen on social media with people saying it's cultural or she didn't mean it vice you specifically. 

You hit a great point about a woman from Afghanistan (and a minister of women at that) should know better.

She's on a other planet and exemplifies the Liberal party being out of touch with Canadians. 

Sadly I'm sure Canadians will still swing back to supporting the LPC more once this Afghanistan story is dropped in a week and especially when Trudeau starts promising everyone the world and a pony but I hope reading her idiotic comment gave him heartburn at least.


----------



## Good2Golf

Jarnhamar said:


> Sadly I'm sure Canadians will still swing back to supporting the LPC more once this Afghanistan story is dropped in a week and especially when Trudeau starts promising everyone the world and a pony but I hope reading her idiotic comment gave him heartburn at least.


He just hears himself and the klingons telling him how awesome he is…


----------



## The Bread Guy

Weinie said:


> ... food, hospitals, roads, water and sewage, and other stuff that even medieval-imposed/constrained society has come to expect. I didn't include justice and police because I suspect they will impose their own system. But without the first four above, their society will quickly disintegrate into discord and civil war.


Not the first guerilla movement that may find it harder to move into a governance mode.  Then again, did they do such a great job the first time they had a crack at the tiller?


----------



## Brad Sallows

Afghanistan has minerals, China has money and equipment.  End of problem.


----------



## Weinie

Brad Sallows said:


> Afghanistan has minerals, China has money and equipment.  *End of problem.*


Afghanistan has tribes. Start and continuance, in perpetuity, of problems


----------



## Colin Parkinson

YZT580 said:


> Oh really?  The paving trucks from China are probably already starting to move towards the border to continue the Silk Road construction


Good luck with that, very little of China connects with Afghanistan and what does is less than ideal road build terrain. meaning any trade must go through a third country and the distances are not small. Coupled with political instability, a total lack of infrastructure and a lack of skilled people means China must import everything to build the infrastructure so they can extract the resource. We are talking huge investments with decades long timeframes and very little benefit to the locals. Eventually Pakistan will stab China and so will the Taliban, just a matter of when. And if they don't then another Islamic group or tribe will.   








						The Afghanistan-China Belt & Road Initiative - Silk Road Briefing
					

By Chris Devonshire-Ellis Potential routes exist along the Wakhan Corridor and via Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, but it is Pakistani access to Kabul that looks the better option – as long as the Taliban can provide stability, develop Afghan society, and refrain from regional aggression...



					www.silkroadbriefing.com


----------



## Fishbone Jones

Where is the equipment and labourers NATO used to build the highway?


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Likely the equipment is being sold to interests in Pakistan


----------



## The Bread Guy

Offering some more tea leaves to read with this cluster of stories ....

_*“Turkey holds first talks with the Taliban in Kabul”*_ (Al Jazeera)
_*“Erdogan Says Turkey Has Held Its First Talks With Taliban”*_ (TOLO News, AFG independent media***)
_*“Defense Ministers of Turkey, US to Discuss Kabul Airport Plan”*_ (TOLO News, AFG independent media)
_*“Turkey won’t help at Kabul airport without its own security -officials”*_ (Reuters)
*** - Independent for _now_, anyway ....


----------



## Czech_pivo

Brad Sallows said:


> Afghanistan has minerals, China has money and equipment.  End of problem.


It still becomes a matter of getting those minerals out, cost effectively.
There are no railroads, only the highways that we (the west) built and those run really only to Pakistan.  So how do they get those minerals out?  Through Pakistan, those same Tribal lands that we had to rely on shipping gasoline and other supplies through?  Run those trucks all the way to Karachi? I guess its possible, down through Kandahar, Quetta and on to Karachi. 
Can't run those trucks into Iran, can't run them into the Panjshir valley and then onto China, Taz, Turk and Uz stans are all not feasible.
These are all the same reason why we, (the west) couldn't pull it off over the last 20yrs.  
I have no doubt China will be putting its toes into the Afghan pool, just not so sure they will jump into the water or slowly ease themselves bit by bit.


----------



## QV

Czech_pivo said:


> It still becomes a matter of getting those minerals out, cost effectively.
> There are no railroads, only the highways that we (the west) built and those run really only to Pakistan.  So how do they get those minerals out?  Through Pakistan, those same Tribal lands that we had to rely on shipping gasoline and other supplies through?  Run those trucks all the way to Karachi? I guess its possible, down through Kandahar, Quetta and on to Karachi.
> Can't run those trucks into Iran, can't run them into the Panjshir valley and then onto China, Taz, Turk and Uz stans are all not feasible.
> These are all the same reason why we, (the west) couldn't pull it off over the last 20yrs.
> I have no doubt China will be putting its toes into the Afghan pool, just not so sure they will jump into the water or slowly ease themselves bit by bit.


You're assuming China and the TB give a rats ass about people, like the West does.  You know how they get the minerals out? A couple thousand afghans carrying them out on their back for a nickel a week at gun point.


----------



## Czech_pivo

QV said:


> You're assuming China and the TB give a rats ass about people, like the West does.  You know how they get the minerals out? A couple thousand afghans carrying them out on their back for a nickel a week at gun point.


Yes and that is how the next insurgency starts.  The circle of life, lol.


----------



## QV

US special operations vets carry out daring mission to save Afghan allies
					

At least 13 service members were killed in an attack at the Kabul airport on Thursday.




					abcnews.go.com
				




_With the Taliban growing more violent and adding checkpoints near Kabul's airport, an all-volunteer group of American veterans of the Afghan war launched a final daring mission on Wednesday night dubbed the "Pineapple Express" to shepherd hundreds of at-risk Afghan elite forces and their families to safety, members of the group told ABC News.

Moving after nightfall in near-pitch black darkness and extremely dangerous conditions, the group said it worked unofficially in tandem with the United States military and U.S. embassy to move people, sometimes one person at a time, or in pairs, but rarely more than a small bunch, inside the wire of the U.S. military-controlled side of Hamid Karzai International Airport...._


----------



## Brad Sallows

The reason the "west" can't do very much there is because the "west" has self-imposed rules against paying bribes/protection to locals to keep the peace on their turf.  I suppose that the Chinese, if they want the resources, would pay local warlords to secure the routes.  I pointed out not long ago that the GDP of Afghanistan is $20B.  For those wondering whether that is a lot of money, the GDP of Prince Edward Island is about $6B.  When I refer to a "problem" being solved if the Chinese get involved, I mean the financing "problem".  I'm confident that doling out cash and jobs works as well there - and in the neighbouring countries, where necessary - as it does here.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

I am going to have to disagree with you on this one Brad. China's projects around the world are not going as well as they would like. I suspect that Afghanistan will a lower priority than the seaports and more developed nations bit. They may focus on improving a land link with Iran as a backup plan. But China is having a lot of domestic problems right now with natural disasters, corruption and projects literally falling apart in front of them. 
Afghanistan political issues is going to make it hard for the Chinese to succeed with any major projects and they have little love for Muslims and that is going to come to a head at some point.

Wiki says about that GDP

*GDP - composition by sector*:


_agriculture_: 23%
_industry_: 21.1%
_services_: 55.9%


----------



## OldSolduer

I was watching Biden's press secretary on CBC. The situation sucks and will probably worsen. 

They are expecting more targeted attacks - in what form who knows?

Over 100 dead from the last one.


----------



## KevinB

Brad Sallows said:


> The reason the "west" can't do very much there is because the "west" has self-imposed rules against paying bribes/protection to locals to keep the peace on their turf.


Uhm...
  We do that all the time in Afghanistan - or we did - by we, I mean certain coalition partners.




Brad Sallows said:


> I suppose that the Chinese, if they want the resources, would pay local warlords to secure the routes.  I pointed out not long ago that the GDP of Afghanistan is $20B.  For those wondering whether that is a lot of money, the GDP of Prince Edward Island is about $6B.  When I refer to a "problem" being solved if the Chinese get involved, I mean the financing "problem".  I'm confident that doling out cash and jobs works as well there - and in the neighbouring countries, where necessary - as it does here.


Afghanistan has a lot of land - and resources - even if the resources are not currently being utilized.

Plus China has the labor force to build roads for a land route to Afghanistan - 
   Also they managed to ship in AK's, Grenades, Explosives and MANPADS fairly easily over the last 20 years...


----------



## OldSolduer

KevinB said:


> Afghanistan has a lot of land - and resources - even if the resources are not currently being utilized.


Is there not a big vein of copper near the Argendhab River? I've never been for any appreciable length of time but I do recall someone saying that.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

i worked with the Resource Industry for a long time, people underestimate just how hard it is to put in a open pit mine, even without regulatory oversight. Venezuela is overflowing with minerals, lot's of people and companies have tried to build mines there and failed because of the enormous upfront costs, corruption and game playing by local political factions and that place will be 50 times easier than Afghanistan to work in.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Brad Sallows said:


> The reason the "west" can't do very much there is because the "west" has self-imposed rules against paying bribes/protection to locals to keep the peace on their turf ...


Oh, oh, oh, I know the "Yes, Minister" quote for this one ....


> ... Commission fees, administrative overheads, operative costs, managerial surcharges, introduction expenses, miscellaneous outgoings ....


----------



## Weinie

Brad Sallows said:


> Brad Sallows said:
> 
> 
> 
> *The reason the "west" can't do very much there is because the "west" has self-imposed rules against paying bribes/protection to locals to keep the peace on their turf.*  I suppose that the Chinese, if they want the resources, would pay local warlords to secure the routes.  I pointed out not long ago that the GDP of Afghanistan is $20B.  For those wondering whether that is a lot of money, the GDP of Prince Edward Island is about $6B.  When I refer to a "problem" being solved if the Chinese get involved, I mean the financing "problem".  I'm confident that doling out cash and jobs works as well there - and in the neighbouring countries, where necessary - as it does here.
Click to expand...


A good friend of mine left the Forces for this very reason. He was in Cambodia with the UN in the early 90's as an Engineer, and they had to bribe the local warlord to allow a bridge, over a major route, to be re-built. The UN did so, and about a week later, the bridge was blown up. The local warlord again agreed to allow the bridge to be re-built, but for an even more exorbitant fee. Cue explosion about  a week later. This happened several more times. Int definitely pointed to warlords involvement , UN said "Meh"

My friend recently retired as a senior officer with the RCMP. CAF loss.


----------



## Remius

Weinie said:


> A good friend of mine left the Forces for this very reason. He was in Cambodia with the UN in the early 90's as an Engineer, and they had to bribe the local warlord to allow a bridge, over a major route, to be re-built. The UN did so, and about a week later, the bridge was blown up. The local warlord again agreed to allow the bridge to be re-built, but for an even more exorbitant fee. Cue explosion about  a week later. This happened several more times. Int definitely pointed to warlords involvement , UN said "Meh"
> 
> My friend recently retired as a senior officer with the RCMP. CAF loss.


I heard a similar story from a guy I know that was working for the UN in Mali.  UN aid convoys kept getting held up at gun point by “terrorists” but was really local warlords being paid off by the UN who were trying to control who really got the aid.  Apparently the UN was aware but didn’t do much about it.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Remius said:


> I heard a similar story from a guy I know that was working for the UN in Mali.  UN aid convoys kept getting held up at gun point by “terrorists” but was really local warlords being paid off by the UN who were trying to control who really got the aid.  Apparently the UN was aware but didn’t do much about it.


Shocked i tell you, shocked!


----------



## Jarnhamar

Not exactly related but found this interesting.

In Syria, militias armed by the Pentagon fight those armed by the CIA​








						In Syria, militias armed by the Pentagon fight those armed by the CIA
					

Syrian militias armed by different parts of the U.S. war machine have begun to fight each other on the plains between the besieged city of Aleppo and the Turkish border, highlighting how little control U.S. intelligence officers and military planners have over the groups they have financed and…




					www.latimes.com


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Heads should roll but will they and will the correct ones roll?








						Marine officer relieved of duty after calling out senior leaders about Afghanistan
					

"I am willing to throw it all away to say to my senior leaders, ‘I demand accountability,'" Lt. Col. Stuart Scheller said in a video message.




					www.politico.com


----------



## Edward Campbell

A (only somewhat) humorous comment from Brian Gable in the *Globe and Mail:*








						Opinion: Editorial Cartoons for August, 2021
					

The Globe and Mail offers the most authoritative news in Canada, featuring national and international news




					www.theglobeandmail.com


----------



## Jarnhamar

US left Afghan airfield at night, didn’t tell new commander​








						US left Afghan airfield at night, didn't tell new commander
					

BAGRAM, Afghanistan (AP) — The U.S. left Afghanistan's Bagram Airfield after nearly 20 years by shutting off the electricity and slipping away in the night without notifying the base's new Afghan commander, who discovered the Americans' departure more than two hours after they left, Afghan...




					apnews.com


----------



## CBH99

Remius said:


> I heard a similar story from a guy I know that was working for the UN in Mali.  UN aid convoys kept getting held up at gun point by “terrorists” but was really local warlords being paid off by the UN who were trying to control who really got the aid.  Apparently the UN was aware but didn’t do much about it.


The UN was paying local warlords to not hold up their convoys at gunpoint?  Or the UN would pay them once held up, to help ensure some of the aid went to who it was meant for?  (Sorry about needing clarification on such a random story, just genuinely curious!  Wouldn't surprise me in the slightest...)



Weinie said:


> A good friend of mine left the Forces for this very reason. He was in Cambodia with the UN in the early 90's as an Engineer, and they had to bribe the local warlord to allow a bridge, over a major route, to be re-built. The UN did so, and about a week later, the bridge was blown up. The local warlord again agreed to allow the bridge to be re-built, but for an even more exorbitant fee. Cue explosion about  a week later. This happened several more times. Int definitely pointed to warlords involvement , UN said "Meh"
> 
> My friend recently retired as a senior officer with the RCMP. CAF loss.


That sucks, and goes to show that the UN seems to have a vested interest in the status-quo in some areas rather than be working towards any real improvement.  They say they are there to rebuild a country, assist the people, etc - yet put up with crap like that.

The warlord, in all fairness, has a pretty good business plan.  Allow the UN to build a project, probably employing locals and some of how own people - while the UN also pays him not to attack it.  Wait a little while, blow it up, and repeat - getting the UN to pay him each time.  It sucks and it's shady, but he clearly figured out the UN would rather just plug away at it rather than eliminate/solve the problem so it could move onto the next.


----------



## Weinie

CBH99 said:


> The UN was paying local warlords to not hold up their convoys at gunpoint?  Or the UN would pay them once held up, to help ensure some of the aid went to who it was meant for?  (Sorry about needing clarification on such a random story, just genuinely curious!  Wouldn't surprise me in the slightest...)
> 
> 
> That sucks, and goes to show that the UN seems to have a vested interest in the status-quo in some areas rather than be working towards any real improvement.  They say they are there to rebuild a country, assist the people, etc - yet put up with crap like that.
> 
> The warlord, in all fairness, has a pretty good business plan.  Allow the UN to build a project, probably employing locals and some of how own people - while the UN also pays him not to attack it.  Wait a little while, blow it up, and repeat - getting the UN to pay him each time.  It sucks and it's shady, but he clearly figured out the UN would rather just plug away at it rather than eliminate/solve the problem so it could move onto the next.


The UN, in my opinion, is for the most part, useless. The Security Council, with five permanent members with veto votes, only aggregates the dysfunction.

Add to that exorbitant salaries (tax free) and lavish expense accounts, and one can see why certain people would be attracted to that lifestyle, all the while spouting pretentious gob about how they are saving the world.

A pox on their houses.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Live by the "boom" ....


> *The US military says it believes it has killed a planner for the Afghan branch of the Islamic State group in a drone strike in the east of the country.
> *
> The suspected member of the IS-K group was targeted in Nangarhar province.
> 
> IS-K said it had carried out an attack outside Kabul airport on Thursday that may have killed as many as 170 people, including 13 US troops ...


----------



## Jarnhamar

The Bread Guy said:


> Live by the "boom" ....


*Suspected* member, wonder what that evidence looked like.

The US was (allegedly) blindsided by the Taliban's ability to take the country over in a week and undo 20 years of work (contrary to what their president was apparently informed), but they managed to track down and nail a IS-K "planner" in a couple days. Okay.


----------



## Kirkhill

Jarnhamar said:


> US left Afghan airfield at night, didn’t tell new commander​
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> US left Afghan airfield at night, didn't tell new commander
> 
> 
> BAGRAM, Afghanistan (AP) — The U.S. left Afghanistan's Bagram Airfield after nearly 20 years by shutting off the electricity and slipping away in the night without notifying the base's new Afghan commander, who discovered the Americans' departure more than two hours after they left, Afghan...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> apnews.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 66224



Not laughing.



> On July 2 came the big vacancy. Bagram, the sprawling air base 40 miles north of Kabul that for two decades had served as the operational heartbeat, was abandoned in the dead of night. Afghans complained that the commander never said goodbye.
> 
> A defense official familiar with the planning told The Washington Times that military commanders had always intended to close Bagram before the American withdrawal was complete.
> 
> The official rejected the idea that it was practical to keep Bagram operational until Mr. Biden’s deadline or shortly before. *The source said it would have been a logistical nightmare to attempt to transport thousands of U.S. personnel from Kabul or from other more distant cities.*











						Inside the Afghanistan debacle: Biden abandoned Trump’s pullout plan
					

President Biden’s decision to bypass his military advisers and order a complete withdrawal has left tens of thousands of Americans and friendly Afghans trapped by Taliban terrorist brigades.




					www.washingtontimes.com
				




So it was always the Biden plan to abandon everyone not in Kabul to their own resources because:  "Logistical Nightmare".

I guess nobody knows how to collapse a perimeter in contact in an orderly manner.


----------



## KevinB

Kirkhill said:


> Not laughing.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Inside the Afghanistan debacle: Biden abandoned Trump’s pullout plan
> 
> 
> President Biden’s decision to bypass his military advisers and order a complete withdrawal has left tens of thousands of Americans and friendly Afghans trapped by Taliban terrorist brigades.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.washingtontimes.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> So it was always the Biden plan to abandon everyone not in Kabul to their own resources because:  "Logistical Nightmare".
> 
> I guess nobody knows how to collapse a perimeter in contact in an orderly manner.


He set a very unrealistic troop level - and refused to budge from it when confronted with the requirements from US MIL personnel.

 Instead of saying Mr. President, that is utterly contemptible, if you go forward, I will need to resign, SecDef Austin, CJCS Milley and Gen Miller just saluted and went to accomplish a task they knew was impossible.

 Biden is an idiot - but the other three are morally bankrupt.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Kirkhill said:


> Not laughing.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Inside the Afghanistan debacle: Biden abandoned Trump’s pullout plan
> 
> 
> President Biden’s decision to bypass his military advisers and order a complete withdrawal has left tens of thousands of Americans and friendly Afghans trapped by Taliban terrorist brigades.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.washingtontimes.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> So it was always the Biden plan to abandon everyone not in Kabul to their own resources because:  "Logistical Nightmare".
> 
> I guess nobody knows how to collapse a perimeter in contact in an orderly manner.


Unfortunately all of those left from Dunkirk are all pretty much gone or unable to explain, properly, how it should happen….


----------



## Kirkhill

Alternate solutions









						Elite SAS troops rescued in dramatic desert operation
					

The Hercules transport from RAF 47 Squadron flew low and slow, heading for a secret coordinate deep in Afghanistan, in pitch darkness. The crew — sporting special digital night-vision equipment — w…




					asiatimes.com
				












						‘Pineapple Express’: US vets volunteer to secretly rescue allies in Afghanistan
					

The weeklong secret operation dubbed “Pineapple Express” has been carried out by a group of special ops veterans including retired Green Berets and SEAL Team commanders, they told ABC N…




					nypost.com
				












						Critics: Admin Not Using All Resources to Rescue Americans | RealClearPolitics
					

Rep. Mike Waltz, a colonel in the National Guard and a decorated Green Beret, is frustrated with what he describes as the State Departments risk...




					www.realclearpolitics.com


----------



## kkwd

These are the US service members killed in the Kabul airport attack


----------



## Kirkhill

Well done that man!









						Marine officer relieved of duty after calling out senior leaders about Afghanistan
					

"I am willing to throw it all away to say to my senior leaders, ‘I demand accountability,'" Lt. Col. Stuart Scheller said in a video message.




					www.politico.com
				






> He either fears his fate too much,
> Or his deserts are small,
> That puts it not unto the touch
> To win or lose it all.











						My Dear and Only Love by James Graham, Marquis of… | Poetry Foundation
					

My dear and only Love, I pray




					www.poetryfoundation.org
				




The Marquis of Montrose to his wife on the eve of his execution in 1650 for having followed his conscience.


----------



## CBH99

The UN


Kirkhill said:


> Well done that man!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Marine officer relieved of duty after calling out senior leaders about Afghanistan
> 
> 
> "I am willing to throw it all away to say to my senior leaders, ‘I demand accountability,'" Lt. Col. Stuart Scheller said in a video message.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.politico.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> My Dear and Only Love by James Graham, Marquis of… | Poetry Foundation
> 
> 
> My dear and only Love, I pray
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.poetryfoundation.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The Marquis of Montrose to his wife on the eve of his execution in 1650 for having followed his conscience.


They still don’t get it, do they?  The senior personnel in most companies, government agencies, militaries, etc.  

Time and time again, they make similar decisions & behave in similar ways.  And time and time again, they look like pricks who then need to back peddle.   🤦🏼‍♂️


The public will always side with a more junior person who gets thrown under a bus or dismissed by their seniors, whose only real ‘crime’ was demanding accountability, or professionalism, or who exposes a lie - as the public should.


----------



## Kirkhill

And when your enemies perceive you as weak?  What is the appropriate response?  Why you become aggressive.  What could possibly go wrong?










						Navy, Coast Guard send ships through Taiwan Strait in wake of assault drills by China
					

The transit by the USS Kidd marks the eighth time this year the Navy has sent a warship through those waters.




					www.stripes.com


----------



## Colin Parkinson




----------



## CBH99

Kirkhill said:


> And when your enemies perceive you as weak?  What is the appropriate response?  Why you become aggressive.  What could possibly go wrong?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Navy, Coast Guard send ships through Taiwan Strait in wake of assault drills by China
> 
> 
> The transit by the USS Kidd marks the eighth time this year the Navy has sent a warship through those waters.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.stripes.com


I know the US sails ships through the straight on a routine basis to exercise freedom of the seas, show resolve to Taiwan, send a message to China when need be, etc.

But the timing of this one does kind of hint at a ‘compensating for something?’ decision 😅🤷🏼‍♂️


----------



## The Bread Guy

Am I cynical thinking this could become Srebrenica 2.0?


> France and Britain will on Monday urge the UN to create a "safe zone" in Afghanistan's capital, to protect humanitarian operations, French President Emmanuel Macron said.
> 
> "This is very important," Mr Macron was quoted as telling the French Sunday newspaper _Journal du Dimanche_. "This would provide a framework for the United Nations to act in an emergency."
> 
> Such a safe zone in Kabul would allow the international community to maintain pressure on the Taliban, he said ...


----------



## YZT580

place a bet?  Will it be China or Russia that either vetos outright or procrastinates until it is too late?


----------



## MilEME09

YZT580 said:


> place a bet?  Will it be China or Russia that either vetos outright or procrastinates until it is too late?


China has been getting pretty buddy buddy with the taliban, if their goal is resources, which I bet it is. The  they will want the capital secure to allow them to do their work.


----------



## KevinB

MilEME09 said:


> China has been getting pretty buddy buddy with the taliban, if their goal is resources, which I bet it is. The  they will want the capital secure to allow them to do their work.


They don't care what happens in the capital -- one could argue they would prefer instability at this point - as it won't interfere with their operations - which would have a significant security ring -


----------



## CBH99

YZT580 said:


> place a bet?  Will it be China or Russia that either vetos outright or procrastinates until it is too late?


I honestly don't know.

Russia doesn't want an unstable Afghanistan, it does what it can to keep it's neighborhood as orderly as possible.  Putin is a smart man, he understands the importance of looking good on the world stage, and has a growing trading relationship with France.  Vetoing it doesn't really serve him any real benefit.


China doesn't give a shit about what anybody thinks, and they've made that abundantly clear over the last few years.  I could see China going either way on this proposal to be honest.  But if there is a safe area around Kabul so the west can get it's remaining people out, the west will quickly lose any focus it currently has as on the region, which is very much the preferred environment by China I imagine.  

If a Taliban government is secured in the capital, I'm sure China would be more than happy to supply them with money, weapons, advisors, possibly even decent military equipment to be paid for with the natural resources that are being mined/developed - possible business opportunity and monopoly on a new market.  If not, I'm sure China would be happy to put a few planes on a tarmac somewhere with people to support them as a 'gesture of friendship' to 'keep the west out of Afghanistan's sovereign affairs.'  (And, conveniently, also keep the west out of China's backyard.)

China could also initiate projects with the Taliban's consent/cooperation.  The Taliban ensure Chinese companies and workers are safe, in return for the money and goods that China is providing.  Or like Kevin said, China could easily put a very effective security ring around where it wants to set up shop.  Country doesn't need to be super stable, as any potential threat to either the project or workers would be handled swiftly & decisively anyway.


Interesting to see how this proposal ends up...  🍿


----------



## Colin Parkinson

China will play with the Taliban for a while, they are going to start asking for dissidents to be handed over as part of that deal, that's going to sour a lot of Muslims and likley lead to attacks on Chinese interests, things will unravel.


----------



## KevinB

Colin Parkinson said:


> China will play with the Taliban for a while, they are going to start asking for dissidents to be handed over as part of that deal, that's going to sour a lot of Muslims and likley lead to attacks on Chinese interests, things will unravel.


Chinese will just wholesale wipe out security threats - they don't give two frigs what we (or the Taliban) think.
  I'd expect more and more Chinese "migrants" moving south - and displacing the Afghans.


----------



## MilEME09

What Mark Norman thinks now: Full Comment with Anthony Furey
					

In 2017, Mark Norman was in line to be Canada’s next chief of defence staff — until he was accused of and criminally charged with leaking government secrets.…




					nationalpost.com
				




Interesting that Mark Norman has reappeared giving an interview talking about Afghanistan, China and other CAF issues


----------



## The Bread Guy

Colin Parkinson said:


> ... they are going to start asking for dissidents to be handed over as part of that deal ...


That's how I'd bet my loonie, too ...


> Uyghurs living in Afghanistan are terrified that the Taliban’s takeover of the country could mean they will be extradited to face harsh punishment in China or suffer other dangers in the war-torn South Asian nation.
> 
> (...)
> 
> The roughly 80 Uyghur families in Kabul are living in confusion and fear about life under the Taliban, says Mamat, a Uyghur man who was born in Afghanistan to parents who had parents had immigrated there in the 1960s.
> 
> Mamat, who lives in Kabul with his own family, said he was beaten and barely escaped an attack by Taliban militants Sunday when he went to buy bread for his children ...


----------



## Kirkhill

Subject to verification but reported by both Fox and the Washington Post



> *When Afghanistan's president Ashraf Ghani fled the country,* the city began to collapse as gangs were reported to be taking over. This led to U.S. military leaders meeting and reaching an agreement with the Taliban, a U.S. official told the Post.
> 
> *"We have two options to deal with it," Taliban political leader Abdul Ghani Baradar reportedly said, according to the official. "You [the United States military] take responsibility for securing Kabul or you have to allow us to do it."
> 
> Faced with the decision of whether to accept control over Kabul or allow the Taliban to do so, the U.S. opted for the latter*, given President Biden’s insistence on withdrawing from Afghanistan by August 31. As part of the agreement, the U.S. assumed control of Kabul’s airport until the end of the month to facilitate its exit while the Taliban ruled the city.
> 
> According to the Post’s report, the Taliban had no intention of taking control of Kabul that day. Prior to Ghani’s departure, the U.S. had not anticipated it either, as several top officials had reportedly been on vacation.
> 
> The chaos that ensued when Ghani left, however, required someone to step in. The U.S. decided that it should be the Taliban.
> 
> Taliban commander Muhammad Nasir Haqqani was surprised by the outcome. After he and his men reached the city they awaited instructions. Later that day they went in and occupied the palace in under an hour.











						Taliban offered Kabul to US, but Americans said no: report
					

Taliban fighters took the Afghan capital city of Kabul faster than anyone anticipated earlier this month – including the Taliban – but according to a Washington Post report, the U.S. had an opportunity to hold the city only to willingly turn it over.




					www.foxnews.com
				




Biden!


----------



## MilEME09

It sucks but it makes sense, if they took over the city, when they left the taliban would of taken over anyway, so why surge resources when you are pulling out.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Kirkhill said:


> Subject to verification but reported by both Fox and the Washington Post
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Taliban offered Kabul to US, but Americans said no: report
> 
> 
> Taliban fighters took the Afghan capital city of Kabul faster than anyone anticipated earlier this month – including the Taliban – but according to a Washington Post report, the U.S. had an opportunity to hold the city only to willingly turn it over.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.foxnews.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Biden!


And here's who got left in charge of security in Kabul .... #FailToPlanPlanToFail


----------



## Kirkhill

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/08/28/taliban-takeover-kabul/
		



MilEME09 said:


> It sucks but it makes sense, if they took over the city, when they left the taliban would of taken over anyway, so why surge resources when you are pulling out.



I disagree.  Vehemently.

With "control" of the city, even with the 6000 troops that Biden allocated, together with the remaining contractors and the ANSF within the city and all the government workers, and the Northerners, and the allied troops..... French, British, Canadian, Germans etc....

The pace and conditions would have been in American control.  And even the final terms.

If the report is true - pending - than the situation moves from shear incompetence to criminal malfeasance.


----------



## Kirkhill

The Bread Guy said:


> And here's who got left in charge of security in Kabul .... #FailToPlanPlanToFail





> Taliban commander Muhammad Nasir Haqqani was surprised by the outcome. After he and his men reached the city they awaited instructions. Later that day they went in and occupied the palace in under an hour.
> 
> "We didn’t see a single soldier or police," Haqqani said, according to the Post.
> 
> "We couldn’t control our emotions, we were so happy. Most of our fighters were crying," he said. "We never thought we would take Kabul so quickly."
> 
> Under Taliban rule, terrorists were able to hit U.S. forces, as a suicide bomb went off near the airport that killed 13 American service members. After that happened, President Biden warned that another attack was "highly likely" in the coming days.











						Taliban offered Kabul to US, but Americans said no: report
					

Taliban fighters took the Afghan capital city of Kabul faster than anyone anticipated earlier this month – including the Taliban – but according to a Washington Post report, the U.S. had an opportunity to hold the city only to willingly turn it over.




					www.foxnews.com


----------



## Kirkhill

How different would things have looked with American and Northern Alliance holding Kabul, Bagram and the Panjshir?


----------



## MilEME09

All US troops are officially out of Afghanistan
					

For the time being, it appears as if the original Forever War is now over.




					taskandpurpose.com
				




And thats a wrap folks, it's over


----------



## Kirkhill

MilEME09 said:


> All US troops are officially out of Afghanistan
> 
> 
> For the time being, it appears as if the original Forever War is now over.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> taskandpurpose.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> And thats a wrap folks, it's over



Does the enemy get a vote?


----------



## KevinB

The Bread Guy said:


> And here's who got left in charge of security in Kabul .... #FailToPlanPlanToFail


Article is actually incorrect - the Taliban and Al Qaeda where both linked as terrorist organizations under the UN Security Resolution 1276.
   Generally the US only lists organizations if the UN Security Council will not.
Noting that Haqqani's network is listed in a little disingenuous - as he's Taliban, albeit a rather extreme part - part none the less.


----------



## CBH99

MilEME09 said:


> It sucks but it makes sense, if they took over the city, when they left the taliban would of taken over anyway, so why surge resources when you are pulling out.


I see what you mean, and I can understand the train of thought going through Biden's team about those two options.  The US was in the process of fully withdrawing all of their troops, had that as a goal they were progressing towards with some momentum, before current events unfolded.  

I imagine the option that sounded like 'the least amount of work, and the shortest timeframe' was probably picked pretty quickly - before anybody really gave it any hard thought.



Kirkhill said:


> https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/08/28/taliban-takeover-kabul/
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I disagree.  Vehemently.
> 
> With "control" of the city, even with the 6000 troops that Biden allocated, together with the remaining contractors and the ANSF within the city and all the government workers, and the Northerners, and the allied troops..... French, British, Canadian, Germans etc....
> 
> The pace and conditions would have been in American control.  And even the final terms.
> 
> If the report is true - pending - than the situation moves from shear incompetence to criminal malfeasance.



If they had thought about it, this would have made more sense.  The US was withdrawing regardless, but the 6000 US troops + coalition SOF, plus ANSF - they could have kept the city running in a way that was more or less normal.  Especially if the Taliban had agreed (in secret) to stay out of the city and allow the US to maintain control for a while longer.

Politicians also care about optics.  (In theory anyway, our shining star seems like a notable exception.)  Deploying 6000 troops to secure the airport & immediate areas around the airport - while at the same time withdrawing troops as per the peace agreement and a big part of what he was elected on - would be confusing optics.  There aren't many examples of where a country has had to deploy 6000 troops in order to withdraw the much smaller number that were present, unless in a combat situation.

The whole situation happened so quickly, and so much more swiftly than anybody thought it would - or even could - I imagine there were quite a few decisions that were made on the fly, with zero long term thought put into them.  Most of those decisions probably made sense, or at least sounded like they made sense, with the information they had at the time.  (Did anybody in the Biden admin know that ANA and other ANSF units had quietly been told to stand down and disappear?  Did anybody have any solid intel that plenty of Taliban fighters were already in the city, waiting out their time?)


I think we are forgetting just how connected all of these events were, and how so much happened in such a short period of time.  Personally, regardless of how it was handled, it seems like it was destined to be a shitshow.  Especially with the information that continues to leak out, such as this.


I think we should remember though:

-  Without the colossal mess that erupted around HKIA, the west probably would never have evacuated the people that we did.  

(The only reason we had 2 C-17's, at least 1 C-130, and a Polaris flying people out of there was because everything went to total s**t.  We've had 10 years to relocate our interpreters and their families, and our embassy staff + contractors were still in place despite the Taliban making a very public and violent comeback over a month ago.)


-  The fear of the Taliban, especially when they entered the city almost magically fast, actually helped the Afghans finally get out of the country.  The ones who were able to leave were very lucky, but they would still be waiting if the Taliban hadn't scared the international community into action.  It's pathetic on our part, but it's been their reality as they have waited this entire time.  The ones who had to stay behind, it does genuinely suck.  

But - not to sound cold or harsh - we can't evacuate the entire country, and not everybody was promised a special visa or had immigrant status elsewhere.  A vast majority of Afghans were going to have to stay in Afghanistan, regardless of how many planes were available.



-  The airport itself was the biggest limiting factor in the number of aircraft that could be used for evacuating embassy staff + contractors, interpreters and their families, and NGO staff if that NGO was perhaps requested/contracted to be there.  One runway, with how many aircraft using it to take off AND land?


-  Even if US and coalition troops had spread out and occupied Kabul for a few weeks, there is no guarantee that a VBIED wouldn't have been used against us.  Maybe it would have slipped through, and made it into the city?  Maybe it would have detonated at a checkpoint further out from the airport, or a major entryway into the city?  Maybe the VBIED had been in the city for quite some time, and this was the time it seemed to be of best use?  

Whether the Taliban set up checkpoints, or us - or they controlled the city for 30 days, or us - it doesn't guarantee that VBIED (or another) wouldn't have still happened.


_Where am I going with all of this?  No idea.  It was a world class s**tshow, no doubt about it_.  🤦‍♂️


----------



## CBH99

Kirkhill said:


> Does the enemy get a vote?


Didn't they already get a vote, when they were discussing how & when the west would finally go away?


----------



## Kirkhill

One thing that has never been clear to me is, given the size of HKIA why people were left huddling in no-man's land between the Taliban and the Walls.

Couldn't they have more securely brought all of the people into one of the compounds at HKIA and housed them in hangars until they got the mess sorted out?









						New Imagery Shows No Crowds inside Kabul’s Airport
					

Days after chaotic footage inside Kabul’s Hamid Karzai International Airport sent shockwaves around the world, satellite imagery captured on August 18 paints a starkly different picture. Earlier this week, CSIS reported that groups of civilians had amassed on the airport’s tarmac and along the...




					www.csis.org


----------



## Kirkhill

CBH99 said:


> Didn't they already get a vote, when they were discussing how & when the west would finally go away?



Do you trust them?  Is this a reprieve, a truce or a peace?  Does it apply to all factions?  What happens now?

Personally I don't believe this "war" is over.  It will continue as it morphs and metastatizes.

The problem is that these "wars" are generally not declared and thus never start and never end.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Kirkhill said:


> One thing that has never been clear to me is, given the size of HKIA why people were left huddling in no-man's land between the Taliban and the Walls.
> 
> Couldn't they have more securely brought all of the people into one of the compounds at HKIA and housed them in hangars until they got the mess sorted out?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> New Imagery Shows No Crowds inside Kabul’s Airport
> 
> 
> Days after chaotic footage inside Kabul’s Hamid Karzai International Airport sent shockwaves around the world, satellite imagery captured on August 18 paints a starkly different picture. Earlier this week, CSIS reported that groups of civilians had amassed on the airport’s tarmac and along the...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.csis.org



I'm no airport security expert, but I'm guessing that they didn't want the bad guys to be able to sneak in a few suicide bombers with the refugees.

It makes sense to build a big 'ante room' and screen people there first before letting them anywhere near aircraft etc.

Which, paradoxically of course, makes these crowds an excellent target for suicide bombers.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Well, that's ... clear ....


> *The Taliban government in Afghanistan would accept any Afghan migrants whose applications for asylum were rejected in Europe and they would then face court*, an Austrian newspaper quoted a Taliban spokesman as saying on Monday.
> 
> Austria’s conservative-led government has taken a hard line on Afghan asylum seekers and refugees within the European Union, with the interior minister initially saying Austria should keep deporting rejected asylum seekers back to Afghanistan for as long as possible.
> 
> Austrian Interior Minister Karl Nehammer has since conceded that that is no longer possible, but said he wants “deportation centres” set up in neighbouring countries that would take them in.
> 
> Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid told the Kronen Zeitung newspaper that his government would be willing to accept such deportees.
> 
> “Yes. They would be taken to court. The court would then have to decide how to proceed with them,” Zabihullah told the newspaper when asked if it would take in Afghan asylum seekers in Germany or Austria whose asylum claims had been rejected or who had committed crimes in those European countries.
> 
> He did not elaborate on why they should be taken to court or what judgement they might face there ...


----------



## Kirkhill

daftandbarmy said:


> I'm no airport security expert, but I'm guessing that they didn't want the bad guys to be able to sneak in a few suicide bombers with the refugees.
> 
> It makes sense to build a big 'ante room' and screen people there first before letting them anywhere near aircraft etc.
> 
> Which, paradoxically of course, makes these crowds an excellent target for suicide bombers.



So they created an "ante room" in a sewage ditch, in the sun, outside the walls, with no screening, and a suicide bomber got into the "ante room".


----------



## FJAG

Kirkhill said:


> ... and a suicide bomber got into the "ante room".


Yup. Past the Taliban outer cordon.

🤨


----------



## KevinB

CBH99 said:


> I see what you mean, and I can understand the train of thought going through Biden's team about those two options.  The US was in the process of fully withdrawing all of their troops, had that as a goal they were progressing towards with some momentum, before current events unfolded.


It was already know what the ANSF was capable of due to the government reshuffling, and the fact that withdrawing air support, and contract maintenance and other support would gut them like a fish.



CBH99 said:


> I imagine the option that sounded like 'the least amount of work, and the shortest timeframe' was probably picked pretty quickly - before anybody really gave it any hard thought.


It is pretty clear that Sec Def Austin and CJCS Gen Milley explained to the administration very clearly what would likely occur.
   All of then knowingly entered into an agreement to hide that from the public it appears.


CBH99 said:


> If they had thought about it, this would have made more sense.  The US was withdrawing regardless, but the 6000 US troops + coalition SOF, plus ANSF - they could have kept the city running in a way that was more or less normal.  Especially if the Taliban had agreed (in secret) to stay out of the city and allow the US to maintain control for a while longer.


Logic would have said that Kabul should have been administrated by the Coalition - and Bagram used as well as both a staging ground - and a support structure -- it is a slew more defensible than HKIA.


CBH99 said:


> Politicians also care about optics.  (In theory anyway, our shining star seems like a notable exception.)  Deploying 6000 troops to secure the airport & immediate areas around the airport - while at the same time withdrawing troops as per the peace agreement and a big part of what he was elected on - would be confusing optics.  There aren't many examples of where a country has had to deploy 6000 troops in order to withdraw the much smaller number that were present, unless in a combat situation.


Optics -- deploying 6k+ Troops and sitting around looking like an assclown to the rest of the world did way worse - and could only expected to be worse for people leaving, the troops on the ground -- everyone.


CBH99 said:


> The whole situation happened so quickly, and so much more swiftly than anybody thought it would - or even could - I imagine there were quite a few decisions that were made on the fly, with zero long term thought put into them.  Most of those decisions probably made sense, or at least sounded like they made sense, with the information they had at the time.  (Did anybody in the Biden admin know that ANA and other ANSF units had quietly been told to stand down and disappear?  Did anybody have any solid intel that plenty of Taliban fighters were already in the city, waiting out their time?)


All of that info was readily known,


CBH99 said:


> I think we are forgetting just how connected all of these events were, and how so much happened in such a short period of time.  Personally, regardless of how it was handled, it seems like it was destined to be a shitshow.  Especially with the information that continues to leak out, such as this.


 Colossal Fuck UP I think is the best wording for it.
   Anyone who had been paying half an ear to Afghanistan should have know as soon as Gen Miller saluted the stupider order about bailing out of Bagram and dropping US Mil to 700 what was going to happen.


CBH99 said:


> I think we should remember though:
> 
> -  Without the colossal mess that erupted around HKIA, the west probably would never have evacuated the people that we did.
> 
> (The only reason we had 2 C-17's, at least 1 C-130, and a Polaris flying people out of there was because everything went to total s**t.  We've had 10 years to relocate our interpreters and their families, and our embassy staff + contractors were still in place despite the Taliban making a very public and violent comeback over a month ago.)


Yes about when Gen Miller and the US Support left...
   Shocker couldn't have thought that might happen /sarcasm


CBH99 said:


> -  The fear of the Taliban, especially when they entered the city almost magically fast, actually helped the Afghans finally get out of the country.  The ones who were able to leave were very lucky, but they would still be waiting if the Taliban hadn't scared the international community into action.  It's pathetic on our part, but it's been their reality as they have waited this entire time.  The ones who had to stay behind, it does genuinely suck.


There are a LOT of people left - scores of US Citizens who wanted to get out got left...



CBH99 said:


> But - not to sound cold or harsh - we can't evacuate the entire country, and not everybody was promised a special visa or had immigrant status elsewhere.  A vast majority of Afghans were going to have to stay in Afghanistan, regardless of how many planes were available.


We made a pact with the Afghans -- we just chose to ignore it and bail because the majority of the Western Voters are oxygen thieves.



CBH99 said:


> -  The airport itself was the biggest limiting factor in the number of aircraft that could be used for evacuating embassy staff + contractors, interpreters and their families, and NGO staff if that NGO was perhaps requested/contracted to be there.  One runway, with how many aircraft using it to take off AND land?


Yes what sort of incompetent or moronic security team leaves a larger airbase to go to a much smaller, less defensible one in the heart of a city...



CBH99 said:


> -  Even if US and coalition troops had spread out and occupied Kabul for a few weeks, there is no guarantee that a VBIED wouldn't have been used against us.  Maybe it would have slipped through, and made it into the city?  Maybe it would have detonated at a checkpoint further out from the airport, or a major entryway into the city?  Maybe the VBIED had been in the city for quite some time, and this was the time it seemed to be of best use?


Absolutely not - but the difference would have been there would have been layers of security and no mass crowds.


CBH99 said:


> Whether the Taliban set up checkpoints, or us - or they controlled the city for 30 days, or us - it doesn't guarantee that VBIED (or another) wouldn't have still happened.
> 
> 
> _Where am I going with all of this?  No idea.  It was a world class s**tshow, no doubt about it_. 🤦‍♂️



If you had asked me to design the worst possible exit plan for Afghanistan - President Biden picked it.


----------



## Kirkhill

I'm sorry but is the argument really that the bug-out was justified because an IED might have been detonated?



> THE SLANG OF “THE FORGOTTEN WAR” as the Korean conflict from 1950 to 1953 is often called, has not been forgotten. Much of it originated in World War II, because many of the American troops in Korea were World War II veterans.
> 
> One such term was *to bug out*, or simply *to bug*, meaning to run away and hence play the coward. Its origin is unknown, but it may have come from the sense of being obsessed or desperate. The term was first employed during World War II, but it did not gain wide usage until the Korean War.
> 
> It had multiple but related meanings. In noun form, often hyphenated (*bug-out*), it denoted a hasty retreat, an escape route, and the person beating such a retreat. A 1951 _New York Herald Tribune_ article had: “Men talked of ‘bug-out gas’ and ‘bug-out jeeps’ and ‘bug-out routes’.” The military film _D.I._ (1957) used it denoting a person: “We’ve got a bug-out, Owen.”
> 
> The term gained further currency with “I’m Movin’ On,” a popular song of 1950 by Hank Snow that aired on the Armed Services Radio Network. Some soldier—it is not remembered who—changed the words to commemorate a major U.S. retreat.
> 
> It was supposedly first sung by black soldiers of the 24th Infantry Regiment, and one line went, “When them Chinese mortars begin to thud, the old Deuce-Four begin to bug.” There were numerous other versions of the song, but many had the refrain, “We’re buggin’ out, We’re movin’ on.” It was renamed “Bugout Boogie” and officially forbidden but nevertheless became the unofficial anthem of the Korean conflict. From it also came the expression *to* *pull a Hank Snow*, meaning to bug out. In time, bug out entered the civilian vocabulary with the similar meaning of quitting or abandoning some enterprise.











						Fighting Words: From the World Wars to Korea
					

Many words and phrases used in the Korean War were first used in the World Wars




					www.historynet.com


----------



## daftandbarmy

FJAG said:


> Yup. Past the Taliban outer cordon.
> 
> 🤨



They'd get a 'red chit' at NITAT


----------



## Kirkhill

> In Islamabad people will point in the direction of the British High Commission as the most important Western diplomatic mission, even more significant than the American.
> 
> This is totally believable. Given that the American are not too eager to talk or even make phone, zoom or any other calls, the British are a good available alternative for Pakistan’s power elite. British Chief of Defence Staff General Nicolas Carter is a frequent visitor to Rawalpindi and the British High Commission is the largest diplomatic mission that the UK has anywhere in the world.











						What is the UK-Pakistan relationship?
					

In Islamabad people will point in the direction of the British High Commission as the most important Western diplomatic mission, even more significant than the American.This is totally believable....




					www.thenews.com.pk
				






> RAF ready to launch fresh IS strikes in Afghanistan​Head of the Air Force says Britain will continue to take the fight to Islamic State wherever necessary
> 
> ByDominic Nicholls, DEFENCE AND SECURITY CORRESPONDENT ; Lucy Fisher, DEPUTY POLITICAL EDITOR and Nick Allen IN WASHINGTON30 August 2021 • 9:30pm
> 
> 
> The RAF is prepared to launch fresh air strikes against Islamic State in Afghanistan, the chief of the air staff signalled in the wake of rocket attacks by the terror network.
> Just three days after the British military presence in Afghanistan ended after 20 years of conflict, Air Chief Marshal Sir Mike Wigston, head of the Royal Air Force, told The Telegraph: "Ultimately, what this boils down to is that we've got to be able to play a global role in the global coalition to defeat Daesh [IS] – whether it's strike or whether it's moving troops or equipment into a particular country at scale and at speed."
> His comments come after Dominic Raab, the Foreign Secretary, said on Monday that Britain was willing to use "all means necessary" to combat IS amid warnings that the chaos in Afghanistan has increased the terror threat to the UK.
> Mr Raab signed a joint statement issued by the US-led coalition that previously targeted IS in Syria and Iraq, vowing to "draw on all elements of national power – military, intelligence, diplomatic, economic, law enforcement" to crush the terror group.
> He said: "The UK stands united with our coalition partners in mourning those killed by Daesh's horrific attack at Kabul airport and in our unwavering collective resolve to combat Daesh networks by all means available, wherever they operate."
> Sir Mike said: "If there's an opportunity for us to contribute, I am in no doubt that we will be ready to. That will be anywhere where violent extremism raises its head and is a direct or indirect threat to the UK and our allies. Afghanistan is probably one of the most inaccessible parts of the world, and we're able to operate there."
> 
> The Telegraph understands that government officials have examined logistics for air strikes raising questions about where RAF jets would be based, how they would refuel and how targets would be identified on the ground.
> 
> Sir Mike said he was in discussion with his international counterparts about long-term plans to base more RAF units overseas, including the Protector drone which is due to come into service in 2024.



Britain's potential launch points:  India and Oman?  Overflight options over Pakistan?

Another reason to pick up funding for ANSF SOF types?


PS

WRT my Bug Out comment.  This is no reflection on the US troops on the ground.  It is, however a heart felt comment about their command structure.


----------



## MilEME09

Where's HMS Queen Elizabeth right now? Park her in the gulf, csn a F35 make the round trip?


----------



## CBH99

KevinB said:


> It was already know what the ANSF was capable of due to the government reshuffling, and the fact that withdrawing air support, and contract maintenance and other support would gut them like a fish.
> 
> 
> It is pretty clear that Sec Def Austin and CJCS Gen Milley explained to the administration very clearly what would likely occur.
> All of then knowingly entered into an agreement to hide that from the public it appears.
> 
> Logic would have said that Kabul should have been administrated by the Coalition - and Bagram used as well as both a staging ground - and a support structure -- it is a slew more defensible than HKIA.
> 
> Optics -- deploying 6k+ Troops and sitting around looking like an assclown to the rest of the world did way worse - and could only expected to be worse for people leaving, the troops on the ground -- everyone.
> 
> All of that info was readily known,
> 
> Colossal Fuck UP I think is the best wording for it.
> Anyone who had been paying half an ear to Afghanistan should have know as soon as Gen Miller saluted the stupider order about bailing out of Bagram and dropping US Mil to 700 what was going to happen.
> 
> Yes about when Gen Miller and the US Support left...
> Shocker couldn't have thought that might happen /sarcasm
> 
> There are a LOT of people left - scores of US Citizens who wanted to get out got left...
> 
> 
> We made a pact with the Afghans -- we just chose to ignore it and bail because the majority of the Western Voters are oxygen thieves.
> 
> 
> Yes what sort of incompetent or moronic security team leaves a larger airbase to go to a much smaller, less defensible one in the heart of a city...
> 
> 
> Absolutely not - but the difference would have been there would have been layers of security and no mass crowds.
> 
> 
> If you had asked me to design the worst possible exit plan for Afghanistan - President Biden picked it.


I agree with everything you said.  Literally everything.  

Coalition forces knew what would happen once we left.  

Our intelligence agencies not only knew the speed the Taliban was retaking key districts (which was openly available to anyone listening to the news or who bothered to look into it) - but they also had what seems to be pretty consistent communication & dialogue with them.  

I agree.  This could not have been a worse plan (or lack of plan) that made the west look like the ass-clowns we are when it comes to strategic thinking, honouring our agreements, etc.


I didn’t really have a single point I was trying to make, other than so many f**k-ups on so many levels converged together into one massive jaw-dropper.  More thinking out loud with my fingers.  


I do find it pathetic and sad that so many of our interpreters & contracted staff were left there for 10yrs + now, and the ONLY reasons they finally got out now was because their situation was the focus of the media, and in our case because there is an election.  If the events of recent hadn’t happened, the ones that got out would still be there

That’s it.  Not because we were honouring our word, or because it was the right thing to do.  If that was the case, it would have been done ages ago.  We were pressured into honouring our word because the world has seen that we didn’t.


----------



## Brad Sallows

I suppose people stayed because they wanted to stay in their home country, Afghanistan, as long as it wasn't taken over by Taliban again.  The problem is that the contingency plans for rapid massive evacuation - if they even were created as part of diligence - weren't up to the crisis.  Or the people responsible for executing them weren't.


----------



## The Bread Guy

From the "where are they now?" file (links to archived version of TASS story to avoid linking directly to RUS servers) ...


> Afghanistan’s former President Hamid Karzai, head of the country’s High Council for National Reconciliation Abdullah Abdullah and leader of the Islamic Party Gulbuddin Hekmatyar will join a council to rule Afghanistan that the the Taliban (outlawed in Russia) leadership intends to establish, Afghanistan’s Ariana News TV channel reported on Wednesday ...


We'll see ...


----------



## KevinB

The Bread Guy said:


> From the "where are they now?" file (links to archived version of TASS story to avoid linking directly to RUS servers) ...
> 
> We'll see ...


Gulbuddin Hekmatyar - F that guy, he's legitimately worse than the Taliban --
  He used to be on the Kill Dont Capture list - he's also got one foot in the grave, so I doubt he will last long on the council
No one trusts that guy - I don't think he hasn't betrayed anyone who's dealt with him.

HK may as he's a Pushtun, and while he rallied Pashtun's to defect from the TB when we arrived in Oct '01 - he's been much more open to dealing with the Taliban - plus he gives them a face of legitimacy.

Which when you are towing former ANSF folks and former Afghan Government folks by the neck under a Blackhawk - you may want to think about trying to look legitimate


----------



## daftandbarmy

Short, sweet, to the point....


----------



## Weinie

daftandbarmy said:


> Short, sweet, to the point....
> 
> 
> View attachment 66283


I think he has some ":adverse material" on his file now.


----------



## Karel Doorman

I'm a Dutchie,as some of you here may know,but that doesn't take away that it's sickening to see what a mayor cl*sterf*ck this all was.

20 years after going into Afghanistan,to eradicate the taliban,they (US')have now armed them and worse they are trusting the taliban to help them get the remaing citizens out,yeah right.

What's even more baffling is that the Biden government is selling this disaster as a mayor win,i mean you really must be crazy or live in some fairytail land to believe that.

And when you ask questions about americans who are litterly stranded there,you'll get the Bill Clinton discussions"what the meaning of the word "is",is;(in this case "stranded",really?

Everyone who has a brain knows,yhat if you are ending your operations somewhere,you first get civilians out,then your millitary(and equipment,or destroy it),but hey i'm be getting too old,to think that loggically.

In short ;worst operation ever(in my lifetime),sold as a victory and we all have to believe/accept that,the world is run by idiots.(and it will cost us all);

ps,i'm not taking away my respect for all the servicemen and women who did an excellent job there,i have a problem with the upper echelon who did make these decissions.(and now not taking accountebillety for it)


----------



## Karel Doorman

Btw,and not in the least "R.I.P For those who lost their lives there"and fought to keep everyone safe.

I hope that they will never be forgotten.


As for the rest of the administration,whenever there's a screw up,just blame Trump(i mean wtf,that man has been out of office for  8 months now,time to take responsibillity for your own actions)


----------



## OldSolduer

Karel Doorman said:


> Btw,and not in the least "R.I.P For those who lost their lives there"and fought to keep everyone safe.
> 
> I hope that they will never be forgotten.
> 
> 
> As for the rest of the administration,whenever there's a screw up,just blame Trump(i mean wtf,that man has been out of office for  8 months now,time to take responsibillity for your own actions)


Why? It works well for the nice haired handsy pretend PM to blame Harper.


----------



## Kirkhill

Karel Doorman said:


> I'm a Dutchie,as some of you here may know,but that doesn't take away that it's sickening to see what a mayor cl*sterf*ck this all was.
> 
> 20 years after going into Afghanistan,to eradicate the taliban,they (US')have now armed them and worse they are trusting the taliban to help them get the remaing citizens out,yeah right.
> 
> What's even more baffling is that the Biden government is selling this disaster as a mayor win,i mean you really must be crazy or live in some fairytail land to believe that.
> 
> And when you ask questions about americans who are litterly stranded there,you'll get the Bill Clinton discussions"what the meaning of the word "is",is;(in this case "stranded",really?
> 
> Everyone who has a brain knows,yhat if you are ending your operations somewhere,you first get civilians out,then your millitary(and equipment,or destroy it),but hey i'm be getting too old,to think that loggically.
> 
> In short ;worst operation ever(in my lifetime),sold as a victory and we all have to believe/accept that,the world is run by idiots.(and it will cost us all);
> 
> ps,i'm not taking away my respect for all the servicemen and women who did an excellent job there,i have a problem with the upper echelon who did make these decissions.(and now not taking accountebillety for it)



I think the principal problem I have with your statement is your working assumption that "the world is run".  The world happens.  Anybody thinking they run the place is fooling themselves.  Anybody believing them is being fooled.


----------



## Karel Doorman

Kirkhill said:


> I think the principal problem I have with your statement is your working assumption that "the world is run".  The world happens.  Anybody thinking they run the place is fooling themselves.  Anybody believing them is being fooled.


Ok,but the world didn't make these decisions,they(clowns)did that.


----------



## Kirkhill

Karel Doorman said:


> Ok,but the world didn't make these decisions,they(clowns)did that.



There we agree.


----------



## Czech_pivo

Just finished watching the 1st episode of the new series, 'Turning Point' on Netflix.  At rush of old emotions rushed over me while watching it. I can close my eyes and still run through everything from about 8:45am straight through to finally finding my wife just after Noon that day.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

FJAG rather than pollute the Joke thread, the most serious threat will be the AFV's and the 350,000 small arms and ammunition caches left there. The AFV's will give the Taliban the advantage in the next 2 years before the majority of them become useless. The small arms will continue to serve them for decades with Pakistan likley being a source for 5.56. You are correct that the US is incapable of getting that stuff back. However a proper withdrawal would have given them a chance to remove most of the aircraft.


----------



## brihard

Kirkhill said:


> So they created an "ante room" in a sewage ditch, in the sun, outside the walls, with no screening, and a suicide bomber got into the "ante room".


Yes. It’s purely a matter of luck that the Taliban didn’t blow a couple of us up along with a hundred afghans at the “ante room” to KAF where all the locals came in to work every morning. At some point there has to be a first interface between the locals trying to get in, and the coalition forces on security. That place is probably going to be hectic and crowded and vulnerable.

When I was working ECP 3 at KAF for a month our shorthand term for the (usually four) troops all the way out front corralling the locals was “Suicide”, I.e., a suicide bomber would get us. I’ve probably got a couple photos somewhere, I’ll see if I can dig them up.


----------



## dapaterson

A reminder to carefully vet any social media; many Afghan nationals in your pictures may still be there, and showing their faces (even a decade old) could place them and their families at risk for reprisal.


----------



## daftandbarmy

'Mission Always' creep... nailed that one:


----------



## MilEME09

NRF claims 1600 Taliban dead or captured in Panjshir - Pop Smoke Media
					

Over the last 48 hours, there has been an apparent brutal engagement with Taliban forces and National Resistance Front (NRF) within the




					www.popsmokemedia.com
				




NRF claiming 600 taliban dead over a 1000 captured in fighting over the weekend. If true that is a pretty big blow to the taliban.


----------



## daftandbarmy

MilEME09 said:


> NRF claims 1600 Taliban dead or captured in Panjshir - Pop Smoke Media
> 
> 
> Over the last 48 hours, there has been an apparent brutal engagement with Taliban forces and National Resistance Front (NRF) within the
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.popsmokemedia.com
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> NRF claiming 600 taliban dead over a 1000 captured in fighting over the weekend. If true that is a pretty big blow to the taliban.



I wonder if the West might lend a hand... if we aren't already:


Battle for Panjshir Valley continues, US general warns of civil war in Afghanistan​

Clashes between the Taliban and resistance forces continued on Saturday as the Taliban tried to take control of the Panjshir valley, the last pocket of resistance in Afghanistan. 

As clashes between the Taliban and resistance forces continued, US General Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has warned of a "civil war" if the Taliban fail to consolidate power. 

In the fight for Panjshir valley, both sides have claimed to have the upper hand but neither could produce conclusive evidence to prove it. The Taliban, which swept through the country ahead of the final withdrawal of US-led forces this week, were unable to control the valley when they ruled Afghanistan back in 1996-2001.

Taliban spokesman Bilal Karimi said the districts of Khinj and Unabah had been taken, giving Taliban control of four out of the seven districts in the province. 

"The Mujahideen [Taliban fighters] are advancing toward the centre [of the province]," he said on Twitter.

However, the National Resistance Front of Afghanistan, grouping forces loyal to local leader Ahmad Massoud, said it surrounded "thousands of terrorists" in Khawak pass and the Taliban had abandoned vehicles and equipment in the Dashte Rewak area.
Front spokesman Fahim Dashti added "heavy clashes" were going on.

In a Facebook post, Massoud insisted Panjshir "continues to stand strong". Praising "our honourable sisters", he said demonstrations by women in the western city of Herat calling for their rights showed Afghans had not given up demands for justice and "they fear no threats". 
US General Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, underscored the tenuous situation.

"My military estimate is, is that the conditions are likely to develop of a civil war. I don't know if the Taliban are going to be able to consolidate power and establish governance," Milley said.









						Battle for Panjshir Valley continues, US general warns of civil war in Afghanistan
					

My military estimate is that conditions are likely to develop of a civil war, US chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff says




					www.geo.tv


----------



## CBH99

No way.  The brutal regime that many parts of the country hated, are now starting to feel unwanted in those areas?  Internal problems indeed…

Now that there seems to be an official group taking up the fight against the Taliban that people can join.  A group that thanks and acknowledges other groups run or staffed by women, and a place where loyal ANA and ANSF members can take up the fight again (hopefully with some decent small arms, and some insight into useful tactics, etc) 

I ‘have a feeling’ the west perhaps lent a very discreet helping hand in getting them organized to the point of going on the offensive.  

Say, where are those CIA SI folks anyway?  🤨😎


----------



## Kirkhill

CBH99 said:


> No way.  The brutal regime that many parts of the country hated, are now starting to feel unwanted in those areas?  Internal problems indeed…
> 
> Now that there seems to be an official group taking up the fight against the Taliban that people can join.  A group that thanks and acknowledges other groups run or staffed by women, and a place where loyal ANA and ANSF members can take up the fight again (hopefully with some decent small arms, and some insight into useful tactics, etc)
> 
> I ‘have a feeling’ the west perhaps lent a very discreet helping hand in getting them organized to the point of going on the offensive.
> 
> Say, where are those CIA SI folks anyway?  🤨😎



I'm in two minds.  I hope the locals don't need encouragement and that they are engaging of their own volition.  That would be much more effective than them responding to "encouragement" from the outside.

At the same time, if they are requesting assistance, even if it is just humanitarian aid and intelligence - and the occasional mechanic to keep their "recovered" gear operational - then that wouldn't offend me.

If only somebody were inclined to finance a regiment of refugees.



> Afghan special forces could join the British Army as part of a new regiment being considered by UK MPs, the Telegraph reported.
> 
> Hundreds of the Afghan commandos who've arrived in the UK over the past few weeks have been trained by UK troops in Afghanistan.


----------



## MilEME09

I think the best option is to have Afghanistan as a country cease to exist, they have no national identity, its a large collection of tribal states, break it up by states, you'll have more peace, much of the Afghan borders were set by the west, not them.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Lookit all the meetings ....

_*“ISI Chief Gen Faiz Hameed meets Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, Taliban leaders in Kabul” (PAK media)*_
_*” ‘Don’t worry, everything will be okay’: ISI (PAK intelligence agency) chief during Kabul visit” (DAWN.COM, PAK media)*_
_*“Taliban again delays govt formation; move coincides with Pak ISI chief’s surprise visit to Kabul” (firstpost.com)*_
... and sounds like Panjshir's still hopping (with talk of talks???)

_*“Delays in formation of Taliban government linked with Panjshir – Council of Salvation” (TASS, RUS state media)*_
_*“Panjshir: Battle for Afghan holdout province intensifies” (CNN)*_
_*“Taliban Claims ‘All Districts’ in Panjshir, Fighting in Center” (TOLOnews, AFG media)*_
_*“Taliban battle for holdout province of Panjshir as US warns of Afghan civil war” (AFP via france24.com)*_
_*“Clerics Call for Ceasefire Between Taliban, Resistance Front” (TOLOnews, AFG media)*_
_*“Leader of Afghan resistance in Panjshir Ahmad Massoud says ready to talk to Taliban” (Al Arabiya English)*_
_*“Leader of Afghan holdout region says he is ready to talk with Taliban” (Reuters)*_
_*“Panjshir resistance leader says ready for talks with Taliban” (Al Jazeera English)*_
_*“Afghan opposition leader Massoud calls for negotiation to end fighting” (AFP via france24.com)*_


----------



## daftandbarmy

This should be interesting...


Panjshir resistance leader says ready for talks with Taliban​Ahmad Massoud, head of NRF, says he welcomes proposals for a negotiated settlement to end fighting in Panjshir Valley.


The leader of the Afghan opposition group resisting Taliban forces in the Panjshir Valley north of Kabul has said he welcomed proposals from religious scholars for a negotiated settlement to end the fighting.

Ahmad Massoud, head of the National Resistance Front of Afghanistan (NRF), made the announcement on the group’s Facebook page on Sunday. Earlier, Taliban forces said they had fought their way into the provincial capital of Panjshir after securing the surrounding districts.










						Panjshir resistance leader says ready for talks with Taliban
					

Ahmad Massoud, head of NRF, says he welcomes proposals for a negotiated settlement to end fighting in Panjshir Valley.




					www.aljazeera.com


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Meanwhile the Taliban are not letting the Americans in country leave till they get "More"


----------



## YZT580

Colin Parkinson said:


> Meanwhile the Taliban are not letting the Americans in country leave till they get "More"


and according to BBC reports there are a number of names on a list who seem to have been disappeared and many more in hiding to avoid search committees.


----------



## Jarnhamar

Afghanistan: Taliban accused of killing pregnant police officer​








						Afghanistan: Taliban accused of killing pregnant police officer
					

The killing comes amid increasing reports of escalating repression of women in Afghanistan.



					www.bbc.com
				





> Details of the incident are still sketchy as many in Firozkoh fear retribution if they speak out. But three sources have told the BBC that the Taliban beat and shot Negar dead in front of her husband and children on Saturday.
> Relatives supplied graphic images showing blood spattered on a wall in the corner of a room and a body, the face heavily disfigured.
> The family say Negar, who worked at the local prison, was eight months pregnant.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Jarnhamar said:


> Afghanistan: Taliban accused of killing pregnant police officer​
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Afghanistan: Taliban accused of killing pregnant police officer
> 
> 
> The killing comes amid increasing reports of escalating repression of women in Afghanistan.
> 
> 
> 
> www.bbc.com


Not a lot of love for female judges, either:  _*“Hunted by the men they jailed, Afghanistan’s women judges seek escape” (DAWN.COM, PAK media)*_


----------



## daftandbarmy

Sounds like it's curtains for the Northern Alliance:


Taliban claim to have taken Panjshir, last holdout Afghan province​
Thousands of Taliban fighters overran eight districts of Panjshir overnight, witnesses say



			https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/taliban-control-panjshir-holdout-1.6165962


----------



## MilEME09

I find it hard to believe a province that held off the soviets, the taliban and everyone else for decades folded as fast as the ANA after an assault.


----------



## The Bread Guy

daftandbarmy said:


> Sounds like it's curtains for the Northern Alliance:
> 
> Taliban claim to have taken Panjshir, last holdout Afghan province​
> Thousands of Taliban fighters overran eight districts of Panjshir overnight, witnesses say
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/taliban-control-panjshir-holdout-1.6165962


Reports still all over the map out there on that* ...*


> _*” ‘War is Ended,’ Future Govt Imminent: Mujahid” *(TOLOnews, AFG media)_
> _*“Afghan resistance leader calls for ‘national uprising’ against the Taliban” *(Daily Mail Online, U.K. media)_
> _*"Taliban Claim Victory Over Resistance, but Massoud Vows to Fight"*__ (Voice of America, USA government-funded media)_
> _*“Panjshir: Afghan resistance leader Ahmad Shah Massoud calls for a ‘national uprising’ ”* (wionews.com, IND media)_
> _*“Afghan Resistance Leaders Have Fled Country: Taliban Media Rep To NDTV” *(NDTV, IND media)_
> _*“Taliban turn down resistance leader’s proposal on ceasefire in Panjshir”* (TASS, RUS state media)_


Meanwhile, other rumour-esque tidbits from regional media ....

*"Mullah Baradar, Haqqani fought over disagreement on Panjshir situation: Report" (Hindustani Times)*
*"Pakistani jet shot down in Panjshir: Resistance leader Ahmad Massoud"* (IND media)
*"Fact check: Picture claimed to be of PAF jet shot down in Panjshir is actually from US"* (PAK media)


----------



## MilEME09

Afghanistan: Competing claims over anti-Taliban stronghold Panjshir
					

The Taliban say they are in complete control of Panjshir Valley, but resistance fighters deny this.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## GR66

With friends like this....Panjshir bombed by Pakistani Air Force drones: Reports


----------



## OldSolduer

Jarnhamar said:


> Afghanistan: Taliban accused of killing pregnant police officer​
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Afghanistan: Taliban accused of killing pregnant police officer
> 
> 
> The killing comes amid increasing reports of escalating repression of women in Afghanistan.
> 
> 
> 
> www.bbc.com


This isn’t surprising at all.


----------



## The Bread Guy

GR66 said:


> With friends like this....Panjshir bombed by Pakistani Air Force drones: Reports


No, no, no, you've got it all wrong -- Pakistani media say it's video game footage or pix of U.S. planes.


----------



## MilEME09

The Bread Guy said:


> No, no, no, you've got it all wrong -- Pakistani media say it's video game footage or pix of U.S. planes.


They finally make public their true colors, bomb en


----------



## Colin Parkinson

I doubt Pakistan would pull that crap with Trump, the benefit of being a loose cannon is no one knows what you might do. You can bet Pakistan is not worried. The best thing to do is freeze all aid immediately.  then tell them that every American gets out or we are giving 50 million in military aid to India per person with no strings attached.


----------



## FJAG

I thought you guys were all in favour of keeping nukes out of the hands of Iran. So how pissy do you really want to get with Pakistan?

Things have been going on with Pakistan under the table for a couple of decades now. It's still going on. It will continue to go on. The US may have traded in the old Orange guy for Uncle Joe but the folks handling the Pakistani desk for the various initialed US agencies are the same.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Colin Parkinson said:


> I doubt Pakistan would pull that crap with Trump, the benefit of being a loose cannon is no one knows what you might do. You can bet Pakistan is not worried. The best thing to do is freeze all aid immediately.  then tell them that every American gets out or we are giving 50 million in military aid to India per person with no strings attached.



Aid to Pakistan by the Numbers​

In 2009, in an attempt to signal the United States’ renewed commitment to Pakistan, the US Congress approved the Enhanced Partnership for Pakistan Act (commonly known as the Kerry-Lugar-Berman bill, or KLB). KLB’s intention was to put security and development on two separate tracks, insulating the development agenda from unpredictable geopolitical and military events and facilitating longer-term planning for development. The act authorized a tripling of US economic and development-related assistance to Pakistan, or $7.5 billion over five years (FY2010 to FY2014), to improve Pakistan’s governance, support its economic growth, and invest in its people.









						Aid to Pakistan by the Numbers
					

The data on this page was last updated September 2013. Read the related blog post here.




					www.cgdev.org


----------



## Kirkhill

FJAG said:


> I thought you guys were all in favour of keeping nukes out of the hands of Iran. So how pissy do you really want to get with Pakistan?
> 
> Things have been going on with Pakistan under the table for a couple of decades now. It's still going on. It will continue to go on. The US may have traded in the old Orange guy for Uncle Joe but the folks handling the Pakistani desk for the various initialed US agencies are the same.


Couple of decades? The Mughals have been pissed since Clive got the better of them and the French in the 1750s.  They had only been Masters of India since 1526.  Henry VIII was on the throne in England.  Ivan the Great had just got rid of the Tatar Yoke of the Mongols some 40 years previous.


----------



## OldSolduer

OldSolduer said:


> This isn’t surprising at all.


Like I said leopards can't change their spots. I fully expect the Taliban to be as bad if not worse than pre 2001.


----------



## blacktriangle

MilEME09 said:


> They finally make public their true colors, bomb en


Bomb who? Pakistan? Do you want to bomb China, too?

Given the ongoing cooperation between Pakistan & China (i.e. CPEC) I fully expect that in addition to acting in its own interests, Pakistan will, when required or instructed, act in China's interests, too.

We've had 20 years to deal with Pakistan. It didn't happen. It's not going to happen. Best you can do is throw a ton of effort towards helping India develop & prosper.

💰


----------



## YZT580

and as long as the container ships keep arriving in VR and SEA from China they don't give a rip.


----------



## blacktriangle

YZT580 said:


> and as long as the container ships keep arriving in VR and SEA from China they don't give a rip.


iPhones over ethics, for sure.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

FJAG said:


> I thought you guys were all in favour of keeping nukes out of the hands of Iran. So how pissy do you really want to get with Pakistan?
> 
> Things have been going on with Pakistan under the table for a couple of decades now. It's still going on. It will continue to go on. The US may have traded in the old Orange guy for Uncle Joe but the folks handling the Pakistani desk for the various initialed US agencies are the same.


Iran is Shia and Pakistan is Sunni. they would not help Iran get the bomb. They would have (or had) helped Saddam if given the chance.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Look who's coming to dinner, so to speak (Indian media) ....


> ... According to reports, the Taliban have invited *Russia, China, Turkey, Iran, Pakistan and Qatar* to attend the inaugural ceremony, paving way for the first steps into foreign policy formulation for a nation that is yet again brought to a nascent stage ...


----------



## Weinie

The Bread Guy said:


> Look who's coming to dinner, so to speak (Indian media) ....*Russia, China, Turkey, Iran, Pakistan and Qatar*


With friends like those................


----------



## Colin Parkinson

We can only hope ISIS attends as well


----------



## Good2Golf

Colin Parkinson said:


> We can only hope ISIS attends as well


Well if NATO is there, why not ISIS?


----------



## Kirkhill

Weinie said:


> With friends like those................


Qatar is the outlier.  All the rest are sons of Genghis Khan.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Ladies & gentlemen, habemus Taliban government ....


> The Taliban named Mullah Hasan Akhund, an associate of the movement's late founder Mullah Omar, as head of Afghanistan's new government on Tuesday and *Sirajuddin Haqqani, whose organization is on a U.S. terrorism list, as interior minister*.
> 
> Haqqani is the son of the founder of the Haqqani network, designated as a terrorist organisation by the United States. He is one of the FBI's most wanted men due to his involvement in suicide attacks and ties with Al Qaeda.
> 
> Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, head of the movement's political office, was appointed as Akhund's deputy, main Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid told a news conference in Kabul ...


🍿


----------



## Kirkhill

The Bread Guy said:


> Ladies & gentlemen, habemus Taliban government ....
> 
> 🍿



The Prequel





> Menachem Begin, Israeli politician, founder of Likud and the sixth Prime Minister of Israel. Before the creation of the state of Israel, he was the leader of the Zionist militant group Irgun, the Revisionist breakaway from the larger Jewish paramilitary organization Haganah. He proclaimed a revolt, on 1 February 1944, against the British mandatory government, which was opposed by the Jewish Agency. As head of the Irgun, he targeted the British in Palestine.[2] Later, the Irgun fought the Arabs during the 1947–48 Civil War in Mandatory Palestine and its chief Begin was also noted as "leader of the notorious terrorist organisation" by the British government and banned from entering the United Kingdom.[3]











						Menachem Begin - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				




The Remake


Some of Britain's best friends are terrorists.

Nkrumah, Kenyatta, Makarios,  (OK terrorists may be a little harsh for some of them - but dead civilians and soldiers accompanied their rise).


----------



## daftandbarmy

Kirkhill said:


> The Prequel
> 
> View attachment 66353
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Menachem Begin - Wikipedia
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> en.wikipedia.org
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The Remake
> View attachment 66354
> 
> Some of Britain's best friends are terrorists.



Especially the right marker there


----------



## The Bread Guy

Kirkhill said:


> Some of Britain's best friends are terrorists.
> 
> Nkrumah, Kenyatta, Makarios,  (OK *terrorists may be a little harsh for some of them* - but dead civilians and soldiers accompanied their rise).


Always a _"Yes Minister"_ quote out there ...


> *Bernard*: And as you know the letters JB are the highest honour in the Commonwealth.
> 
> *Hacker*: JB?
> 
> *Sir Humphrey*: Jailed by the British. Gandhi, Nkrumah, Makarios, Ben Gurion, Kenyatta, Nehru, Mugabe, the list of world leaders is endless ...


----------



## The Bread Guy

The Bread Guy said:


> Ladies & gentlemen, habemus Taliban government ....
> 
> 🍿


Also, another interesting stat:  4 of the 5 folks freed from Guantanamo in exchange for Bowe Bergdahl (more on his saga here & here) are on the government team (source)


----------



## daftandbarmy

The Bread Guy said:


> Also, another interesting stat:  4 of the 5 folks freed from Guantanamo in exchange for Bowe Bergdahl (more on his saga here & here) are on the government team (source)
> View attachment 66366



Well, at least it proves that the criticisms about Gitmo's guests being 'innocent victims' were mostly wrong.


----------



## Jarnhamar

The Bread Guy said:


> Also, another interesting stat:  4 of the 5 folks freed from Guantanamo in exchange for Bowe Bergdahl (more on his saga here & here) are on the government team (source)
> View attachment 66366



No Minister of Middle Class Prosperity or Minister of Women and Gender Quality?

Animals.


----------



## OldSolduer

Jarnhamar said:


> No Minister of Middle Class Prosperity or Minister of Women and Gender Quality?
> 
> Animals.


Because its 1421 don't you know? No ministers of the environment, technology, science etc either.

Luddites.


----------



## kkwd

I wonder what the minister's pension plan looks like.


----------



## Remius

kkwd said:


> I wonder what the minister's pension plan looks like.


Guys like that don’t retire.


----------



## The Bread Guy

From the former AFG president ....


----------



## Czech_pivo

The Bread Guy said:


> Also, another interesting stat:  4 of the 5 folks freed from Guantanamo in exchange for Bowe Bergdahl (more on his saga here & here) are on the government team (source)
> View attachment 66366


What about Karzai and Abdullah Abdullah?  Any official positions for them, other than up against the wall?


----------



## OldSolduer

Czech_pivo said:


> What about Karzai and Abdullah Abdullah?  Any official positions for them, other than up against the wall?


Yes - official guests of the Taliban for an indefinite period.


----------



## daftandbarmy

The Bread Guy said:


> From the former AFG president ....
> View attachment 66384



Here's your sign, Mr. Ghani:


----------



## The Bread Guy

Interesting speculation in Russian state media (links to archived version of article to avoid connecting to RUS servers) ....


> Afghan political leaders who oppose the Taliban (outlawed in Russia) will soon create a council to support resistance forces, Afghan Ambassador to Tajikistan Mohammad Zahir Aghbar told a press conference on Wednesday.
> 
> "Political leaders of Afghanistan, including Marshal [Abdul Rashid] Dostum, will soon create the council supporting the National Resistance Front," the Afghan diplomat said. The envoy earlier said that he represents in Tajikistan "Afghanistan and Amrullah Saleh who serves as acting head of the state." ...


----------



## daftandbarmy




----------



## The Bread Guy

Classy (Indian media)....


> The Taliban have postponed their decision to inaugurate their newly-appointed interim government of Afghanistan, which was announced on September 7, on September 11 – the 20th anniversary of terrorist attacks in the US, sources told CNN-News18.
> 
> The insurgent group is under tremendous pressure from its allies, they said.
> 
> A Taliban source told  CNN News18: “We have postponed the ceremony to unknown time and date."
> 
> The acquiescence comes hours after Russia told the Doha peace negotiation team that it will not participate in the inauguration event if it is held on the 9/11 anniversary ...


----------



## daftandbarmy




----------



## The Bread Guy

Karzai still around - for now, anyway ...


> Former President Hamid Karzai met Qatari Foreign Minister, Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani on Sunday, discussing the current situation of Afghanistan.
> 
> Chairman of the high council for national reconciliation, Abdullah Abdullah was also present in the meeting ...


Is it just me hearing a clock ticking on that guy?


----------



## daftandbarmy

Let the games commence!

Qatar foreign minister in Afghanistan in first high-level visit​Qatar Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani is the highest-level foreign official to visit Afghanistan since the Taliban took power.

Qatar’s Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani has visited Afghanistan’s capital, Kabul and met Mullah Mohammad Hassan Akhund, the acting Prime Minister in the Taliban’s new government.

He also met on Sunday with former President Hamid Karzai as well as Abdullah Abdullah, the head of the National Reconciliation Council as he encouraged Afghan parties and groups to engage in national reconciliation.









						Qatar foreign minister in Afghanistan in first high-level visit
					

Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani is highest-level foreign official to visit Afghanistan since the Taliban took power.




					www.aljazeera.com


----------



## Kirkhill

The Bread Guy said:


> Karzai still around - for now, anyway ...
> 
> Is it just me hearing a clock ticking on that guy?



I think the word I would use is "canny",


canny in British English​(ˈkænɪ)
ADJECTIVE *Word forms: *-nier or -niest

1.
shrewd, esp in business; astute or wary; knowing

2.  Scottish and Northeast England dialect
good or nice: used as a general term of approval

3.  Scottish
lucky or fortunate

And a canny lass is not a nice one because she's a good looking one.  She's a nice one, a good catch, because she's shrewd, thrifty, frugal, lucky, manages the tin well down at the market.

Karzai is canny.


----------



## Fishbone Jones

.


----------



## FJAG

There's a CNN program on tonight with Jake Tapper interviewing a few of the US generals who commanded in Afghanistan.

I think it was on at 8 and will be again at midnight EDT. (Maybe at other times this week.



> Top US commanders in Afghanistan wrestle with mistakes and regrets as America's longest war ends
> 
> 
> US commanders who led the war in Afghanistan are wrestling with the country's collapse to the Taliban, with some ruing the "pretty horrible mistakes" the US military made along the way and one of them flatly declaring America's longest war was not worth the price.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.cnn.com



🍻


----------



## OldSolduer

"We didn't understand the problem," says McChrystal, who led international forces from 2009 to 2010. "The complexities of the environment, I think, weren't appreciated. We went for what we thought would work quickly over what would have likely worked over the longer term."

IMO we -  the west - project our values onto people who don't share our view on life.


----------



## KevinB

The Bread Guy said:


> Karzai still around - for now, anyway ...
> 
> Is it just me hearing a clock ticking on that guy?





Kirkhill said:


> I think the word I would use is "canny",
> 
> 
> 
> Karzai is canny.



He's a relatively moderate Pashtun - that he's a corrupt Dbag is irrelevant - he's remaining visible - and as long as he can stay visible - the TB won't go after him for turning other Pashtun's against them post 9/11.

Involving him even in a low level with the new Government gives the TB 2.0 Image a lot more credibility to foreign governments who so desperately want to believe it (and more their citizens to believe it) so they are not held to account by their voters...


----------



## Halifax Tar

OldSolduer said:


> "We didn't understand the problem," says McChrystal, who led international forces from 2009 to 2010. "The complexities of the environment, I think, weren't appreciated. We went for what we thought would work quickly over what would have likely worked over the longer term."
> 
> IMO we -  the west - project our values onto people who don't share our view on life.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Lookit what a bit of bi-partisanism can lead to ....


> Former Obama and Bush administration officials are launching, a new organization aimed to help streamline the process of resettling the roughly 65,000 Afghans forced out of their home country and now making the United States their home.
> 
> Welcome.US will bring together top refugee organizations, the government and major businesses to engage with Americans on how to help with resettlement efforts for Afghan refugees ...


----------



## Colin Parkinson

Enjoy your new country Mr Taliban, it may be harder to govern, then to overthrow








						Taliban seizes US$12m from ex-officials as cash crunch hits Afghanistan – Kuala Lumpur Post
					






					kualalumpurpost.net


----------



## FJAG

The Bread Guy said:


> Lookit what a bit of bi-partisanism can lead to ....



Not everyone's on board:



> Trump Aides Aim To Build GOP Opposition To Afghan Refugees​The former president has insisted that the refugees are a threat. Trump adviser Stephen Miller said his focus is on convincing members of Congress.





> Trump Aides Aim To Build GOP Opposition To Afghan Refugees
> 
> 
> The former president has insisted that the refugees are a threat. Trump adviser Stephen Miller said his focus is on convincing members of Congress.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> www.huffpost.com



🍻


----------



## The Bread Guy

FJAG said:


> Not everyone's on board:


With stories like this likely to help feed their narrative ....


----------



## The Bread Guy

Meanwhile, one former Canadian foreign service officer's take on at least 5 lessons to take away ....


> (...)
> 
> 1. Government must champion conflict management expertise.
> 
> (...)
> 
> 2. The fate of Afghanistan matters to Canadians.
> 
> (...)
> 
> 3. There is nothing plausible about “plausible deniability”
> 
> (...)
> 
> 4. Be direct when speaking to Canadians about how tough the fight will be
> 
> (...)
> 
> 5. Focus on realistic outcomes, not on making a contribution just to be involved
> 
> (...)


----------



## OldSolduer

The Bread Guy said:


> Meanwhile, one Canadian foreign service officer's take on at least 5 lessons to take away ....


"How Canada has treated the Afghan interpreters who worked with Canadian soldiers and diplomats reveals a similar blind spot.

Those interpreters wore the Canadian flag on their shoulder and risked their lives daily. The interpreter with us at Sarpoza Prison for example, wore an oversized jumpsuit, headscarf and goggles to camouflage his or her identity. Threatening letters delivered in the middle of the night, reprisals, hangings and beheadings were real then and remain so today as the country falls once again to the Taliban."

I'll read this more carefully later but I found the above quote quite.....I'm not sure how to say it but some of our "officials" have no effing clue about anything at all..


A great article.









						What we should have learned in Afghanistan - Open Canada
					

A former foreign service officer in Kandahar on lessons from Canada’s longest war




					opencanada.org


----------



## rmc_wannabe

OldSolduer said:


> "How Canada has treated the Afghan interpreters who worked with Canadian soldiers and diplomats reveals a similar blind spot.
> 
> Those interpreters wore the Canadian flag on their shoulder and risked their lives daily. The interpreter with us at Sarpoza Prison for example, wore an oversized jumpsuit, headscarf and goggles to camouflage his or her identity. Threatening letters delivered in the middle of the night, reprisals, hangings and beheadings were real then and remain so today as the country falls once again to the Taliban."
> 
> I'll read this more carefully later but I found the above quote quite.....I'm not sure how to say it but some of our "officials" have no effing clue about anything at all..
> 
> 
> A great article.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> What we should have learned in Afghanistan - Open Canada
> 
> 
> A former foreign service officer in Kandahar on lessons from Canada’s longest war
> 
> 
> 
> 
> opencanada.org



The problem with a lot of our senior diplomats and bureaucrats is that they don't factor in that people "hate Canada" and thus, hate people who work for us (Canadian and LEP alike).

No one who signs on to work for GAC expects that the people they have working for them in an embassy would be the target of threats, reprisals, or violence. Every embassy is "safe" and the people "love Canada." At least they do in Brussels, Paris, London, etc. 

I remember being told while in Lebanon that Hezboallah "aren't a threat, because they hate ISIS as much as we do. So don't worry too much about them."  You bet your sweet bippy I had my head on a swivel, because they would love nothing more than to ransom a Canadian Soldier to get money or concessions. But no, the Embassy staff were safe in their compound in Northern Beirut, with not a care in the world about the threat picture outside those walls. 

This ignorance showed especially true in Kabul, and we saw the end results of that. .


----------



## Kirkhill

rmc_wannabe said:


> The problem with a lot of our senior diplomats and bureaucrats is that they don't factor in that people "hate Canada" and thus, hate people who work for us (Canadian and LEP alike).
> 
> No one who signs on to work for GAC expects that the people they have working for them in an embassy would be the target of threats, reprisals, or violence. Every embassy is "safe" and the people "love Canada." At least they do in Brussels, Paris, London, etc.
> 
> I remember being told while in Lebanon that Hezboallah "aren't a threat, because they hate ISIS as much as we do. So don't worry too much about them."  You bet your sweet bippy I had my head on a swivel, *because they would love nothing more than to ransom a Canadian Soldier to get money or concessions*. But no, the Embassy staff were safe in their compound in Northern Beirut, with not a care in the world about the threat picture outside those walls.
> 
> This ignorance showed especially true in Kabul, and we saw the end results of that. .



Not that that has ever happened before


----------



## Jarnhamar

Pretty good video of US Sen. Rand Paul





The US apparently doesn't know if they assassinated an ISIS-K operative (that planned the 26 Aug airport attack) or if they killed an aid worker.
The US is sending $64 million in humanitarian aid to Afghanistan i.e the Taliban.
The US may still send billions of dollars to the Taliban for "good behavior"
Question being asked why did the US, who can bomb anyone from anywhere in the world, bomb the abandoned weapons and vehicles.


This whole thing seems like an arms deal.


----------



## The Bread Guy

#KarzaiClockTicking?


> The former Afghan president Hamid Karzai in his recent interview said that the Taliban have pledged education of girls, women’s rights, the national flag, and other national values but no implementation of the promises has been seen yet.
> 
> Hamid Karzai said that during his interactions with the Taliban, he has focused mainly on three things which are girls’ education, women’s prestige in the Afghan society, and an all-inclusive government.
> 
> The former president has added that the people of Afghanistan need a government in which they can live without intimidation, fear, have good relations with the world, work for development, and let people live in joy.
> 
> 
> 
> “We need a cabinet that represents the entire Afghanistan, women and people from all ethnicities are seen in that, but what the Taliban has declared does not meet the definition.” Said Karzai.
> 
> 
> 
> On the closure of girls’ schools, the former president said that there is no way for the development of the country except for the education of girls ...
Click to expand...


----------



## daftandbarmy

rmc_wannabe said:


> The problem with a lot of our senior diplomats and bureaucrats is that they don't factor in that people "hate Canada" and thus, hate people who work for us (Canadian and LEP alike).
> 
> No one who signs on to work for GAC expects that the people they have working for them in an embassy would be the target of threats, reprisals, or violence. Every embassy is "safe" and the people "love Canada." At least they do in Brussels, Paris, London, etc.
> 
> I remember being told while in Lebanon that Hezboallah "aren't a threat, because they hate ISIS as much as we do. So don't worry too much about them."  You bet your sweet bippy I had my head on a swivel, because they would love nothing more than to ransom a Canadian Soldier to get money or concessions. But no, the Embassy staff were safe in their compound in Northern Beirut, with not a care in the world about the threat picture outside those walls.
> 
> This ignorance showed especially true in Kabul, and we saw the end results of that. .



To survive a war....


----------



## dimsum

rmc_wannabe said:


> This ignorance showed especially true in Kabul, and we saw the end results of that. .


Well, I hope that the events that transpired have given GAC, etc a collective dose of reality.  

I doubt it though.


----------



## OldSolduer

dimsum said:


> Well, I hope that the events that transpired have given GAC, etc a collective dose of reality.
> 
> I doubt it though.


You should capitalize that last statement.  The elites that breath the rarified air can't be bothered to learn anything as they know it all. Fools.


----------



## The Bread Guy

*This* is worth reading - and where "U.S.", read "most other Western nations in the fight" ...


> ... After the US and its allies threw out the Taliban there were some critical choices.  One choice was the extent to which the USA was going to engage in “nation building” and attempt to create a capable and legitimate state before leaving.  The USA could have said “We are not in the business of nation-building, we are militarily out of here when our narrow 9/11 related objectives and met, full stop, plan on it.”  Or, they could have said “Given the consequences of our regime change we are here with an open-ended commitment until Afghanistan has a capable and legitimate state (on some clear(ish) criteria.”  But it was politically expedient, and the height of unconstrained hubris, to say _both. _  The USA said that they were both going to leave only when Afghanistan had a capable and legitimate state _and _that, don’t worry, that won’t take us very long, we are not making an open ended commitment.
> 
> Well, if you announce a distance and a time, you have announced a speed.  The USA announced was the equivalent of saying they were going to run a Marathon distance (26.2 miles) in an hour.  And when they were told, hey, people having been running Marathons since, well, Marathon, and no one has run one in anything like that time (and it is probably physiologically impossible as no one has run even one single mile at the pace 26.2 would have to be run) the response  was some mix of i) hubris that the US military can achieve anything; ii) real or feigned inability to understand that the speed was wildly unrealistic; iii) resignation to political interests setting the goal and timeframe) ...
> 
> ... if one is told to do nation building on an unrealistic time deadline one is driven towards tactics and strategies that can at least appear to produce rapid success ...
> 
> ... I just had surgical repair of my ruptured Achilles tendon.  My leg is in a hard, non-weightbearing cast for two weeks.  If I took that cast off on the second day after surgery and tried to run around I would immediately undo whatever benefit the surgery had been.  Asking political and governance mechanisms to do too much, too soon, with too little merely creates repeated failures ...
> 
> ... If one feels very strongly that something needs to be done and one knows that the existing national mechanisms are to weak to do it, there is a temptation to bring in foreign contractors and import the capability ...


----------



## brihard

So that USMC colonel who made the increasingly crazy videos? Apparently he’s in the brig now. I guess you can’t resign via YouTube… Dude needs help. I hope he gets it.









						Marine officer who blasted leaders over Afghanistan withdrawal now in the brig
					

“All our son did is ask the questions that everybody was asking themselves, but they were too scared to speak out loud.”




					taskandpurpose.com


----------



## Brad Sallows

"One choice was the extent to which the USA was going to engage in “nation building” and attempt to create a capable and legitimate state before leaving."

That choice was already made.  That was the era during which the neo-cons had a lot of influence and they were all-in on their underpants gnome plan for "nation building":

1. Throw out old regime.
2. ????
3. Democracy!


----------



## dimsum

brihard said:


> So that USMC colonel who made the increasingly crazy videos?


Wait, he did more than one?


----------



## brihard

dimsum said:


> Wait, he did more than one?


Yup.


----------



## Remius

brihard said:


> So that USMC colonel who made the increasingly crazy videos? Apparently he’s in the brig now. I guess you can’t resign via YouTube… Dude needs help. I hope he gets it.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Marine officer who blasted leaders over Afghanistan withdrawal now in the brig
> 
> 
> “All our son did is ask the questions that everybody was asking themselves, but they were too scared to speak out loud.”
> 
> 
> 
> 
> taskandpurpose.com


Wow.  I hadn’t see that.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Remius said:


> Wow.  I hadn’t see that.



He didn't see it coming either, apparently


----------



## dimsum

Latest WaPo article:



			https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2021/09/27/afghanistan-airlift-inside-military-mission/?fbclid=IwAR1RNqqozFvWq4blWWoDMP-FpOQFsaENX0ZosCjP5Xlr8riFaLlZ_qvWCPg


----------



## daftandbarmy

dimsum said:


> Latest WaPo article:
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2021/09/27/afghanistan-airlift-inside-military-mission/?fbclid=IwAR1RNqqozFvWq4blWWoDMP-FpOQFsaENX0ZosCjP5Xlr8riFaLlZ_qvWCPg



Here's a heads up for those that might be keen on contracting out a bit too much:

"Nearly everything needed to run the airport effectively — airfield lighting, radars, weather systems — had been damaged or destroyed by crowds as they climbed over sensitive electronics and power supplies. European and American contractors running the airport, McClaskey said, had abandoned their posts as the crowd grew. Random gunfire echoed across the airport."


----------



## The Bread Guy

daftandbarmy said:


> Here's a heads up for those that might be keen on contracting out a bit too much:
> 
> "Nearly everything needed to run the airport effectively — airfield lighting, radars, weather systems — had been damaged or destroyed by crowds as they climbed over sensitive electronics and power supplies. European and American contractors running the airport, McClaskey said, had abandoned their posts as the crowd grew. Random gunfire echoed across the airport."


From this ...


The Bread Guy said:


> *This* is worth reading - and where "U.S.", read "most other Western nations in the fight" ...





> ... A third common flaw in development efforts is to “cocoon” projects from the normal channels of implementation.  If one feels very strongly that something needs to be done and one knows that the existing national mechanisms are to weak to do it, there is a temptation to bring in foreign contractors and import the capability.  Given the resources and capabilities of American government and contracting firms, of course many things can be done quickly.  But this usually not just does not build capability, it both undermines the building of national capability and does not improve a government’s legitimacy.  Moreover, this gets done at costs that are astronomical relative to what the national government could ever hope to afford ...


... or stop getting done if said contractors GTFO ...


----------



## daftandbarmy

Interesting... from a dentist/ rifle platoon commander.

The British Army could use alot more of those 

*A soldier’s hard look back at Canada’s Afghan mission*

A young dentist’s ideals led him to Afghanistan as an infantry officer. After two tours, he began to question what was ultimately achievable.

A soldier's hard look back at Canada's Afghan mission


----------



## brihard

daftandbarmy said:


> Interesting... from a dentist/ rifle platoon commander.
> 
> The British Army could use alot more of those
> 
> *A soldier’s hard look back at Canada’s Afghan mission*
> 
> A young dentist’s ideals led him to Afghanistan as an infantry officer. After two tours, he began to question what was ultimately achievable.
> 
> A soldier's hard look back at Canada's Afghan mission


British dentist turned infantry officer… Did he think Helmand was the more winnable venture?


----------



## MilEME09

Anyone able to confirm this?


----------



## FJAG

brihard said:


> British dentist turned infantry officer… Did he think Helmand was the more winnable venture?


Not British. He's Canadian from Quebec and came to Canada as a baby with his refugee family when Saigon fell. He joined up as a reservist and volunteered for two tours in Afghanistan. Worked mostly as a duty officer and spent time mentoring the ANA.

An interesting and powerful story.

🍻 🍻


----------



## The Bread Guy

MilEME09 said:


> View attachment 66700
> Anyone able to confirm this?


Just what looks like independent (for now, anyway) AFG media quoting the Taliban denying the reports.  As for the lights being on ....


> ... Residents in Bagram said that the lights of the base were seen on Saturday night, which is a first since US troops left the base.
> 
> Mansor said that the lights were switched on by forces related to the Islamic Emirate.
> 
> Shamshad, a resident of Bagram district, said: “The lights were switched on again at Bagram air force base. There were some voices heard at the base. An airplane has also been seen there.”  ...


----------



## OldSolduer

daftandbarmy said:


> Here's a heads up for those that might be keen on contracting out a bit too much:
> 
> "Nearly everything needed to run the airport effectively — airfield lighting, radars, weather systems — had been damaged or destroyed by crowds as they climbed over sensitive electronics and power supplies. European and American contractors running the airport, McClaskey said, had abandoned their posts as the crowd grew. Random gunfire echoed across the airport."


The Romans outsourced too - apparently their cavalry was not Roman but supplied by other tribes.

Just a thought


----------



## FJAG

OldSolduer said:


> The Romans outsourced too - apparently their cavalry was not Roman but supplied by other tribes.
> 
> Just a thought


And archers and slingers.

🍻


----------



## The Bread Guy

Anti-Taliban forces:


_*“Why the World’s Eyes Are on the Afghanistan-Tajikistan Border” (Independent Media Institute via pressenza.com)*_
_*“Afghan resistance has sanctuary in Tajikistan, but fighting Taliban a ‘non-viable prospect’ ” (AFP via France 24)*_
_*“Afghan resistance considers Dushanbe suitable platform for dialogue with Taliban” (TASS, RUS state media)*_
_*“Guerrilla war against Taliban raging on in Panjshir, says resistance movement” (TASS, RUS state media)*_
_*“Over 2,700 Russian troops to take part in 3 post-Soviet security bloc drills in Tajikistan” (RUS state media)*_
_*“Russian, Tajik presidents discuss strengthening border with Afghanistan” (TASS, RUS state media*_)


----------



## dimsum

Hands up for anyone who was surprised at this.  It's almost like the Taliban weren't learning from ISAF.









						‘Why did we fight?’ Challenge of governing is wearing down Taliban.
					

Victory on the battlefield is one thing. Governing millions of people with vision is another. In Afghanistan, the stress on the Taliban is showing.




					www.csmonitor.com


----------



## daftandbarmy

Those who aren't planning for a collapse in Afghanistan yet might be wise to review a few Mad Max movies to get a sense of what might be in store for Central Asia.



Afghanistan on verge of socio-economic collapse, EU's top diplomat says​

Afghanistan is facing a breakdown of its economic and social systems that risks turning into a humanitarian catastrophe, the European Union's foreign policy chief said on Sunday.

Avoiding the worst-case scenario would require the Taliban to comply with conditions that would enable more international assistance, Josep Borrell wrote in a blog post.

"Afghanistan is experiencing a serious humanitarian crisis and a socio-economic collapse is looming, which would be dangerous for Afghans, the region and international security," Borrell wrote.

Food prices in the country have jumped more than 50% since the Taliban took power in August as the freezing of $9 billion of Afghanistan's assets held in foreign central bank reserves and the withdrawal of foreign income stokes inflation.

The Afghan banking system is largely paralysed, with people unable to withdraw money, while the country's health system - which was heavily dependent on foreign aid - is close to collapse, according to Borrell.

"If the situation continues and with winter approaching, this risks turning into a humanitarian catastrophe," he wrote, adding that this could trigger mass migration into neighbouring states.

The 27-country EU has increased its humanitarian aid to Afghanistan since the Taliban took power, but halted its development assistance - a move also taken by other countries and the World Bank.

The EU response to the crisis would depend on the behaviour of the new Afghan authorities, Borrell said, and any resumption of relations would require compliance with conditions including human rights.

"This requires above all that the Taliban take the steps that will enable the international community to assist the Afghan people," he said, adding that female staff from international agencies must be able to do their job.

Widespread reports of human rights abuses and the exclusion of girls from schools have dented optimism that the Taliban's approach has changed since it first ran Afghanistan between 1996 and 2001. read more

Borrell met Qatari officials last week in the Qatari capital Doha, where the Taliban have a representation.

He said Qatar's contacts with the Taliban were aimed at moderating their behaviour, and urged Doha to use its contacts with them to ensure the "worst scenario" for Afghanistan could be avoided.









						Afghanistan on verge of socio-economic collapse, EU's top diplomat says
					

Afghanistan is facing a breakdown of its economic and social systems that risks turning into a humanitarian catastrophe, the European Union's foreign policy chief said on Sunday.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## CBH99

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/nato-afghanistan-stoltenberg-1.6222090
		



Thoughts?


----------



## daftandbarmy

CBH99 said:


> https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/nato-afghanistan-stoltenberg-1.6222090
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Thoughts?



My guess is that they/ we will continue to muddle through. The militaries of the Rich North have grown a bit too fond of realtively low risk/consequence 'war tourism' in the Poor South, IMHO:


NATO Futures: Three Trajectories​
*Trajectory 1 (Baseline): Muddling Through*​*OVERVIEW*​NATO endures and remains relevant in many areas, but it fails to make the investments and reforms needed to make it fit for purpose in the future. Most crucially, allies agree to enhance NATO’s collective defense capabilities to include integrating multidomain tools into its deterrence and defense posture. Crisis management and cooperative security remain its core tasks, but it fails to secure the political support and resources needed to execute them effectively, and they increasingly take place through coalitions of the willing or under EU and UN auspices. Allies increase political coordination at NATO on issues ranging from China to emerging and disruptive technologies, but this results in little more than a “talk shop” that produces statements lamenting the state of the world and condemning adversaries’ actions. The United States and European allies become increasingly frustrated with one another—the United States with allies’ failure to assume more responsibility in and around Europe or to contribute more decisively to managing China, and allies with the United States’ seemingly myopic focus on China and unwillingness (despite statements to the contrary) to allow Europeans autonomy in their own affairs. Efforts to increase investment in innovation falter as allies pursue projects that benefit their own defense industrial bases but do not necessarily enhance NATO’s defense and security. Still others fail to invest in innovation at all, widening the technology gap among allies and harming interoperability.

*THREAT AND OPPORTUNITY ENVIRONMENT*​NATO’s external threat environment stays at a low simmer. Russian and Chinese military buildup convinces allies of the need to maintain a strong deterrence and defense posture.









						NATO Futures: Three Trajectories
					

Download the Report  One secret to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) longevity has been its ability to continually adapt to the ever-changing external security environment and needs of its members. This is all the more needed today in a world that is at once more complex and more...




					www.csis.org


----------



## CBH99

I think it’s fair to say that unless mainstream media outlets are covering a genocide with the same enthusiasm as they do with Covid, most of our future military adventures will be:

a) To gain control of precious resources, i.e., rare earth metals, oil, etc. (Although this will never be publicly acknowledged.)

b) Forced to interfere with violent internal problems of poor countries (such as daft states)

c) In support of US efforts in the event of large scale - even if short lived - military actions to support US foreign policy.  (Defending Taiwan or Japan, for example.)


----------



## KevinB

Nearly 200 Americans and thousands of Afghans who seek visas remain in Afghanistan nearly two months after US troops pulled out
					

Nearly 200 Americans who want to leave Afghanistan remain in the country nearly two months after the U.S. military’s evacuation mission ended at the Kabul airport, Pentagon officials told senators Tuesday.




					www.stripes.com


----------



## Altair

BBC News - The Taliban’s secretive war against IS








						The Taliban’s secretive war against IS
					

Jalalabad is the frontline in murky and bloody battle between two groups, and the death toll is rising.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				






> Afghanistan is now more peaceful, following the end of the Taliban's insurgency. In Jalalabad, however, their forces are facing an near-daily stream of targeted attacks. IS, known locally as "Daesh," is using some of the same hit-and-run tactics that the Taliban so successfully employed against the previous government, including roadside bombs and stealthy assassinations. IS accuses the Taliban of being "apostates" for not being sufficiently hardline; the Taliban dismiss IS as heretical extremists.



These two deserve one another.


----------



## daftandbarmy

It's deja vu all over again:

Islamic State in Afghanistan could be able to attack U.S. in 6 months-Pentagon official​
The U.S. intelligence community has assessed that Islamic State in Afghanistan could have the capability to attack the United States in as little as six months, and has the intention to do so, a senior Pentagon official told Congress on Tuesday.










						Islamic State in Afghanistan could be able to attack U.S. in 6 months-Pentagon official
					

The U.S. intelligence community has assessed that Islamic State in Afghanistan could have the capability to attack the United States in as little as six months, and has the intention to do so, a senior Pentagon official told Congress on Tuesday.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## The Bread Guy

Let's see if Nostradamus gets it right THIS time ...








						Taliban will not last beyond two years, feels former Afghan Chief of Staff
					

Amsterdam [Netherlands], October 29 (ANI): Malaiz Daud, formerly Chief of Staff of Afghanistan's former President Ashraf Ghani, has predicted that the Taliban will not last beyond two years and they are losing their hold on the country right now as the crisis deepens in the war-torn country.




					www.aninews.in


----------



## The Bread Guy

Interesting tidbit in Pakistani media about how Afghanistan's Taliban will help get a grip on Pakistan's Taliban splinters if PAK peace talks sour ....


> Days before the Afghan Taliban were at the gates of Kabul, Pakistan was already in talks with the government in-waiting to deal with terrorist outfits such as banned Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Baloch groups which have been for years operating out of the neighbouring country.
> 
> Pakistani officials in their interactions with the Taliban leadership made a clear demand that all these groups must not only be denied space to operate but also sought military action against them.
> 
> After Taliban captured Kabul on August 15, Pakistan shared a list of most-wanted terrorists seeking their extradition.
> 
> The Taliban leadership came up with a proposal, offering Pakistan their good offices to initiate talks with the TTP and its affiliates. But at the same time the interim Taliban government promised military action against those groups, which were not willing to reconcile, according to sources familiar with the development.
> 
> It was because of this reason that Pakistan initiated talks with the TTP. The two sides reportedly held at least three face-to-face meetings. One was held in Kabul while the other two took place in Khost ...


----------



## CBH99

The Bread Guy said:


> Interesting tidbit in Pakistani media about how Afghanistan's Taliban will help get a grip on Pakistan's Taliban splinters if PAK peace talks sour ....


If nothing else, Afghanistan is very much experiencing an interesting period in their history.  

They do have quite the history already.  But the last year or so, and into the foreseeable future - this period seems like it will stand out - once future history books are written.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

CBH99 said:


> If nothing else, Afghanistan is very much experiencing an interesting period in their history.
> 
> They do have quite the history already.  But the last year or so, and into the foreseeable future - this period seems like it will stand out - once future history books are written.


The Taliban are experiencing the perils of "winning". It's likley they be able to keep the wheels on for a year or so, but as the money runs dry and people don't stay bought, then threats and force will happen and then civil war 2.0 starts.


----------



## daftandbarmy

Karma time, it seems:

Afghanistan: Taliban leader warns of infiltrators​Warning by Haibatullah Akhunzada comes as the movement faces increased attacks from hardline groups.

The supreme leader of the Taliban, Haibatullah Akhunzada, has warned the group that there may be “unknown” entities among their ranks who are “working against the will of the government”.

The warning came in a statement attributed to Akhunzada that was circulated widely on Taliban social media accounts on Thursday.

The Taliban’s supreme leader has not been seen in public since the group seized power nearly three months ago, capturing the Afghan capital of Kabul on August 15 and declaring an Islamic emirate as US forces withdrew following a decades-long occupation.

Since the Taliban took control of the country, its leadership has repeatedly warned of impostors and criminals joining the group in an effort to harm its image.

In September, acting Defence Minister Mullah Mohammad Yaqoob raised concerns in an audio message.

“There are some bad and corrupt people who want to join us … To fulfil their own interest or to defame us and make us look bad,” he said.
Yaqoob, the son of Taliban founder Mullah Mohammad Omar, added that any rogue elements among the ranks would be dealt with.

In recent months, the Taliban has expanded its recruitment as it seeks to fulfil a pledge to maintain security in the country. But the group has faced a series of deadly attacks from rivals, including the Islamic State in Khorasan Province, ISKP (ISIS-K) armed group, an ISIL-affiliate.
On Tuesday, at least 19 people were killed in an attack on a military hospital in Kabul claimed by ISKP.

The Taliban also declared a nationwide amnesty and promised to allow private media companies to continue to operate freely and independently. However, there have been reports of some Taliban fighters allegedly abusing journalists, and others have been accused of forcibly seizing property in several provinces.

Following the reports, Akhunzada’s office issued a decree in late September banning the group’s members from entering homes and offices “in Kabul or its surroundings under the pretext of checking vehicles or equipment. No one is allowed to take vehicles or equipment” in the name of the Afghan government, it said.

However, there have been continued reports of Taliban fighters forcing hundreds of families out of their homes in the central province of Daikondi.









						Taliban supreme leader warns of infiltrators among the ranks
					

Warning by Haibatullah Akhunzada comes as the movement faces increased attacks from hardline groups.




					www.aljazeera.com


----------



## FJAG

> Nixon’s Thumbprint​by Thomas MageeNovember 24, 2021
> 
> Last August people across the United States sat in horror as they saw the Government of Afghanistan capitulate to the Taliban.  The scenes of mass Afghan Army surrenders and people clamoring to get out of Kabul riveted people to the news. In a flash, after 20 years, the Taliban was back in power.  The world had not seen anything like it since Vietnam and both isles of Congress asked how such a thing could occur.  The US had spent $145bn over 20 years to rebuild Afghanistan; $83bn of which went to the Afghan army and police forces to build stability.1  2,448 US service personnel and 3,846 contractors were killed in Afghanistan.2  Both President Biden and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman General Mark Milley told various press outlets and Congressional committees that the fall of Afghanistan was a complete surprise.3   Many people across the country thought that the nation’s blood and treasure sacrifice would have purchased some sort of stability for Afghanistan.
> ...
> This _op ed_ argues that the collapse of Afghanistan stems from a failure of strategic doctrine that started with President Nixon and Vietnam.  To be successful, this piece makes the case for auxiliary forces.





> Nixon's Thumbprint » Wavell Room
> 
> 
> The roots of the West's defeat start with President Nixon and his strategy in Vietnam. It's time to consider Nixon'x thumbprint.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> wavellroom.com



🍻


----------



## FJAG

Just another interesting article of what you can do when you configure and use your Res F the right way.



> How a few good ‘Bastards’ from the Army National Guard helped secure the Kabul airport​“No one could’ve predicted how this unfolded. The entire situation was surreal.”
> BY CAPT. CHARLIE ANDERSON | UPDATED SEP 22, 2021 7:33 PM
> It was mid-July when the 1st Combined Arms Battalion of the 194th Armor Regiment first sent soldiers to the Afghan capital in Kabul. Back in Kuwait Task Force 1-194, better known as ‘Task Force Bastard,’ was planning for contingencies if things went south at the embassy and airport, to include over-the-horizon support to aid in a Noncombatant Evacuation Operation (NEO). Together with our counterparts at 2nd Brigade, 10th Mountain Division we wanted to get the lay of the land. So signal officer Capt. Vince Struble, plans officer Capt. Andrew Hanson, and Charlie Company 1st Sgt. Christopher O’Shea went to Hamid Karzai International Airport. With the exception of a stray rocket attack by ISIS-Khorasan, Chris, Drew and Vince had a relatively uneventful week. The State Department seemed content with embassy operations, Kabul appeared relatively peaceful, and the Turkish coffees they enjoyed made it seem like they were on a temperate vacation from Task Force Bastard in the desert.
> ....
> When we received the order sending us to Kabul, years of training and a heightened readiness kicked into full action. Within six hours over 400 task force Soldiers were ready to load onto flights. We knew that when we arrived we would be tasked with securing vital sectors of Hamid Karzai International Airport and assisting with the evacuation of U.S. citizens, families, and allies under constant threat from both the Taliban and ISIS-K.
> 
> We met Lt. Col. Helgestad’s intent. No one had to wait on us.
> ...





> How a few good 'Bastards’ from the Army National Guard helped secure the Kabul airport
> 
> 
> “No one could’ve predicted how this unfolded. The entire situation was surreal.”
> 
> 
> 
> 
> taskandpurpose.com



🍻


----------



## daftandbarmy

FJAG said:


> Just another interesting article of what you can do when you configure and use your Res F the right way.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 🍻



Well, the Reserves are not quite the National Guard.

Most of our Reservists are vaccinated 

Military vaccination mandate dispute pits Pentagon against Oklahoma National Guard​https://www.cnn.com/profiles/oren-liebermann








						Military vaccination mandate dispute pits Pentagon against Oklahoma National Guard | CNN Politics
					

The refusal of the commander of the Oklahoma National guard to enforce the Pentagon's Covid-19 vaccination mandate has opened up a dispute about the limits of the federal government's authority and the chain of command of the military.




					www.cnn.com


----------



## FJAG

An interesting perspective in this article.

One needs to remember that the initial entry into Afghanistan was by Special Forces who partnered with warlords to build a loose coalition that defeated the Taliban. Subsequent efforts were to destabilize and disarm the Afghan Militia Forces with a effort to build a westernized-style Afghan National Army. We all know the results of that.

The article posits that the weakened warlord structure was the focus of the Taliban's rapid takeover of the country.



> Did the deliberate weakening of warlords cause Afghanistan’s collapse?
> 
> 
> In this submission, Ben Acheson asks whether the weakening of warlords caused Afghanistan's Collapse.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ukdefencejournal.org.uk



🍻


----------



## The Bread Guy

Some of NATO's lessons learned via a Canadian Library of Parliament paper ....


> ... All Allies participated in the Afghanistan lessons learned exercise, which looked at both political and military issues. The exercise was completed by November 2021 to allow it to be discussed by NATO foreign ministers at a December 2021 meeting and to inform the negotiation of a new NATO Strategic Concept, which will be approved in June 2022.
> 
> The lessons learned exercise identified key conclusions and recommendations. The summary of the lessons learned highlighted that Allies should:
> 
> continually assess strategic interests, remain aware of the dangers of mission expansion, seek to avoid taking on commitments that go well beyond assigned tasks and establish realistic and achievable goals;
> consider how to maintain the military interoperability and political dialogue that was gained;
> carefully consider local political and cultural norms and absorptive capacity when undertaking “train, advise and assist” missions;
> improve internal Alliance reporting and consultations; and
> consider how to strengthen capabilities to support short-notice non-combatant evacuation operations ...


Full LoP paper also attached, as well as NATO's fact sheet on their work


----------



## rmc_wannabe

The Bread Guy said:


> Some of NATO's lessons learned via a Canadian Library of Parliament paper ....
> 
> Full LoP paper also attached, as well as NATO's fact sheet on their work


Amazing how the problems of 2009 are finally being brought up in 2022. Bit like closing the barn door after the horses get out....


----------



## SeaKingTacco

rmc_wannabe said:


> Amazing how the problems of 2009 are finally being brought up in 2022. Bit like closing th4e barn door after the horses get out....


…and the barn itself has burnt to the ground….


----------



## Good2Golf

rmc_wannabe said:


> Amazing how the problems of 2009 are finally being brought up in 2022. Bit like closing th4e barn door after the horses get out....


…one could only hope that it might be considered in future ops.  I remember back in the day when Lessons Learned was still a new(ish) thing that part of the planning process was ‘review LL for similar previous ops’.  Perhaps that’s passé? 🤷🏻‍♂️


----------



## The Bread Guy

Good2Golf said:


> …one could only hope that it might be considered in future ops.  I remember back in the day when Lessons Learned was still a new(ish) thing that part of the planning process was ‘review LL for similar previous ops’.  Perhaps that’s passé? 🤷🏻‍♂️


Like forced rest in battle procedure?


----------



## daftandbarmy

The Bread Guy said:


> Like forced rest in battle procedure?


----------



## Good2Golf

The Bread Guy said:


> Like forced rest in battle procedure?


----------



## The Bread Guy

Good2Golf said:


> View attachment 68291


I know, I age myself with the version I remember


----------



## RangerRay

…


----------



## RangerRay

SeaKingTacco said:


> …and the barn itself has burnt to the ground….


…and the horse was hit by a semi…


----------



## Kirkhill

The Bread Guy said:


> Some of NATO's lessons learned via a Canadian Library of Parliament paper ....
> 
> Full LoP paper also attached, as well as NATO's fact sheet on their work



Just looking at this and considering Britain's move towards more ISR (to include diplomacy and training) and less strike, and the US's redirection of the SF away from "door-kicking" to foreign training is it worth asking if the overall intent is to eliminate the "Advance to Contact" phase?

It seems to me that the intent could be to treat the conditions under which wars are fought as "endemic" and shade the peace/war boundary by establishing contact when the risks are low and maintaining contact in perpetuity.   Then there is less likelihood of accidents happening when nervous bodies advance through the fog.


----------



## The Bread Guy

Taliban to the troops:  Hey, hey, hey - lighten up a bit ...


> Taliban fighters will no longer be allowed to carry their weapons in amusement parks in Afghanistan, the group's spokesman said on Wednesday, in what appeared to be another effort by the country's new rulers to soften their image.
> 
> Taliban fighters, many of whom have spent most of their lives in a 20-year insurgency against a U.S.-backed government, flocked to amusement parks in Afghan cities in towns after they took over in August.
> 
> "Mujahideen of the Islamic Emirate are not allowed to enter amusement parks with weapons, military uniforms and vehicles," the main Taliban spokesman, Zabihullah Mujahid, said on Twitter.
> 
> "(They) are obliged to abide by all the rules and regulations of amusement parks." ...


----------



## Czech_pivo

Kirkhill said:


> I think the word I would use is "canny",
> 
> 
> canny in British English​(ˈkænɪ)
> ADJECTIVE *Word forms: *-nier or -niest
> 
> 1.
> shrewd, esp in business; astute or wary; knowing
> 
> 2.  Scottish and Northeast England dialect
> good or nice: used as a general term of approval
> 
> 3.  Scottish
> lucky or fortunate
> 
> And a canny lass is not a nice one because she's a good looking one.  She's a nice one, a good catch, because she's shrewd, thrifty, frugal, lucky, manages the tin well down at the market.
> 
> Karzai is canny.


Why is it that every definition of something Scottish has the word ‘frugal’ in it, just saying….


----------



## daftandbarmy

Czech_pivo said:


> Why is it that every definition of something Scottish has the word ‘frugal’ in it, just saying….



We had a guy in my platoon at Sandhurst who was from Glasgow, a former bouncer and as big as a house.

One day, during the usual microscopic level inspection on the parade square, the College Adjutant (a Scots Guardsman) stopped in front of him and had an interaction with him that went like this:

Adjt: Mr. XYZ, why do the Scots have such big noses?

OCdt XYZ: I dinnae know sorrrrr

Adjt (deadpan): Because air is free.


The fact that we didn't all collapse with laughter at that moment probably raised our esteem in the eyes of many onlookers....


----------



## KevinB

Color me shocked...
/s









						Biden says he is ‘rejecting’ the military report outlining the disastrous Afghanistan withdrawal
					

When asked if if the report's conclusions and accounts were false, Biden said he was "rejecting them."




					taskandpurpose.com


----------



## daftandbarmy

KevinB said:


> Color me shocked...
> /s
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Biden says he is ‘rejecting’ the military report outlining the disastrous Afghanistan withdrawal
> 
> 
> When asked if if the report's conclusions and accounts were false, Biden said he was "rejecting them."
> 
> 
> 
> 
> taskandpurpose.com



This is a cheerful read (not).

I assume that someone could have written the same thing about Alexander the Great's campaigns 

The root cause of ‘Western’ failure in Afghanistan​
US strategists assume the global system prefers American leadership. Conservatives believe that restraint or containment can maintain American dominance; liberals believe that Western rules and institutions make America vital to world order. Neither approach is valid because they take what America should do to be the norm without considering the possibility that other dynamics are in play. 









						CIDOB - The root cause of ‘Western’ failure in Afghanistan
					

A better understanding of tribal cultures and strategic theories based on them might have prevented errors in Afghanistan and better explained the Taliban victory than do simplistic identifications of Islam, rather than tribalism and nationalism, as the agglutinating force that drives them. From...




					www.cidob.org


----------



## rmc_wannabe

daftandbarmy said:


> US strategists assume the global system prefers American leadership. Conservatives believe that restraint or containment can maintain American dominance; liberals believe that Western rules and institutions make America vital to world order. Neither approach is valid because they take what America should do to be the norm without considering the possibility that *other dynamics* are in play.


Like the local populace, regional history, culture, ethnicity, religion, language...

Running the ANA like a National Guard unit makes it easy to understand for politicians writing the cheques back home. Makes no sense to the Kandak Commander who has no ties to the local ethnic group he's trying to influence.


----------



## Colin Parkinson

I am so not utterly surprised by this. Radical Islamist's always bite the hands that feed them.









						The Taliban Can’t Win Friends or Influence People
					

Fights with neighbors, terrorism attacks on the group’s few patrons, and concerns over Taliban defections darken Afghanistan’s future.




					foreignpolicy.com


----------

