# The EARTHQUAKE ZONE



## George Wallace (6 Apr 2010)

Seems we are in Earthquake season.  First we have Haiti, with small earthquakes in Quebec and then later Chile and a quake in Japan.  Later we had a quake in Turkey. I predicted (an amateur's guess) that the next one would be to the south of Japan in the area of the Phillipines or perhaps south of Turkey.  They seem to be following North/South patterns.  

Well.

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 Massive 7.8 quake hits Sumatra in Indonesia
06/04/2010 7:23:01 PM
Article Link


CTV.ca News Staff  
*A 7.8-magnitude earthquake has struck the northern part of the island of Sumatra in Indonesia, according to the U.S. Geological Survey, triggering a tsunami watch for the immediate area. * 

The quake struck at 5:15 a.m. local time, the USGS said. Its epicentre was about 205 kilometres northwest of Sibolga, on Sumatra, and 1,425 km northwest of Jakarta. 

The agency said the quake's depth measured 46 kilometres. 

There were no immediate reports of damage, however Japan's Kyodo news agency reported blackouts in Medan and Banda Aceh, the capital of Aceh Province.

A tsunami watch is in effect for Indonesia, according to a bulletin issued by the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center.

However, the PTWC said it does not believe the quake has the potential to cause a massive tsunami like the one that swept across the Indian Ocean in December 2004. 

"A destructive widespread tsunami threat does not exist based on historical earthquake and tsunami data," it said. 

The PTWC posted only a local tsunami watch, saying there could be destructive tidal waves within about 100 kilometres of the quake's epicentre.

Developing story...









Will the next one be in Africa or the former Soviet Union in the area of the Caucasus?


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## Colin Parkinson (13 Apr 2010)

I'm just hoping that when the big one hits Vancouver that minimal damage is done to Seattle. If Washington State survives with minimal damage, then the US forces in Ft Lewis and McChord AFB would be free to assist us and likely on the ground within 24hrs. I doubt Canada will be able to deploy to Vancouver a significant amount of soldiers before 72hrs. If Seattle takes the same hit as Vancouver, we are on our own.


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## Old Sweat (13 Apr 2010)

Colin

You're whistling past the graveyard. If when a major earthquake hits Vancouver, even the troops from Ft Lewis and McChord AFB will be only a drop in a bucket. The time and space factor, along with the relative remoteness of the greater Vancouver area from the rest of the continent by air, land or sea will pose a huge challenge. When I say relative remoteness, I am referring to force generation compared to even Haiti, which was more or less accessible from three sides.

It is not all gloom and doom. Given the adherence to building codes, the presence of a resource base of engineer equipment and a functioning multi-level government structure, recovery operations should be underway in short order. And of course, the bureaucrats will be able to make powerpoint presentations almost immediately.


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## George Wallace (14 Apr 2010)

Well......... It is China.


Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act.

 Chinese earthquakes kill at least 400
14/04/2010 7:33:40 AM
Article Link


CBC News   

*At least 400 people were killed and an estimated 10,000 were injured after a series of earthquakes struck a remote area of China's Qinghai province Wednesday morning.*

A magnitude-6.9 quake struck an area in Qinghai province, near Tibet, the U.S. Geological Survey said. The quake was centred in Yushu county, an area in Qinghai with a population of about 100,000, mostly herders and farmers.

Witnesses in the remote area where the quake hit said houses crumbled in a flash and the roofs of religious temples in the largely Buddhist region collapsed.

The main quake sent residents fleeing as it toppled houses made of mud and wood, said Karsum Nyima, the Yushu county television station's deputy head of news, speaking by phone with broadcaster CCTV. Low-quality cellphone footage aired on state broadcasters showed hundreds of people huddled in front of their destroyed homes.

"Most residents houses are of quite poor quality, so 90 per cent of them were destroyed," said Gu Guohua, an earthquake expert with China's seismological bureau.

A group of about 300 soldiers are already working in the area and Chinese officials said about 3,000 more are making their way to the mountainous region - but accessing the area will be difficult because many of the roads in the area were damaged in the quake.

Officials said excavators were not available and emergency workers in the area had to use shovels to dig through the rubble in a township where most of the homes were flattened, footage on state television showed.

*Residents flee*

To prevent a flood, workers were racing to release water from a reservoir in the disaster area where a crack had formed after the quake, according to the China Earthquake Administration.

The U.S. Geological Survey recorded six temblors in less than three hours - all but one registered at magnitude-5.0 or higher. The China Earthquake Networks Center measured the largest quake at magnitude-7.1.

The death toll rose to about 400 by afternoon, according to CCTV. An emergency official was quoted as saying the number of injured has risen to more than 10,000.

The area is sparsely populated, unlike the more densely populated Sichuan province, where a deadly 2008 earthquake left almost 90,000 people dead or missing.

The Sichuan quake flattened several schools, killing thousands of students. Poor design, shoddy construction and the lax enforcement of building codes were found to be rampant.

With files from The Associated Press


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## Colin Parkinson (14 Apr 2010)

Old Sweat said:
			
		

> Colin
> 
> You're whistling past the graveyard. If when a major earthquake hits Vancouver, even the troops from Ft Lewis and McChord AFB will be only a drop in a bucket. The time and space factor, along with the relative remoteness of the greater Vancouver area from the rest of the continent by air, land or sea will pose a huge challenge. When I say relative remoteness, I am referring to force generation compared to even Haiti, which was more or less accessible from three sides.
> 
> It is not all gloom and doom. Given the adherence to building codes, the presence of a resource base of engineer equipment and a functioning multi-level government structure, recovery operations should be underway in short order. And of course, the bureaucrats will be able to make powerpoint presentations almost immediately.



There are approx. 27,000 soldiers at Ft Lewis with approx 6,000 away at any one time. So if they are in a position to respond to an earthquake, you could like expect a immediate response of approx. 4-5,000 soldiers, with likely another 2,000 in follow up support. If Ft Lewis and Seattle are intact, it means these soldiers are within about 3-4 hrs driving distance to the edge of the disaster zone, which would be South shore of the Fraser River. They may have enough bridging assets to cross the Fraser to reach Richmond (or what’s left of it) within 24-48hrs of the incident.
The USAF and Army will have a significant amount of helo’s to provide rescue and airlift far beyond what we have in the region. The USN and USCG will also have quite a few vessels, which can be on scene within 24hrs loaded with rescue gear and providing help/medical supplies, drinking water and firefighting water. 

This is their immediate response from within the region, not counting what will come from further away. If they can respond in the timeframes mentioned, the chances of rescue for trapped individuals is much higher. Also the ability to respond to the citizens needs and the ability to get back to normal will be that much faster thanks to large resources appearing within a short space of time after the incident.

I have taken part in some of my department continuity planning, they were hopelessly optimistic about our ability to restart business resumption after a major quake, they really have no idea of how paralyzed this region will be. Even if a bridge survives the initial quake and aftershocks, it will require inspection prior to full use or even partial use. The whole Lower mainland will be cut into sectors due to bridge closures or collapses, those dam trolley wires will be a major hindrance and I hope the power is cut to them right away. I keep a $100 at my desk just so I have some money to pay for a trip across the pond to N. Van so I can walk back to my family. Luckily we have 30 days of food and 2 nearby water sources.


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## Old Sweat (14 Apr 2010)

I agree with much of your post, both the positive stuff and the challenges because of the damages/changes to the ground and the buildings and infrastructure. It also has been my experience that most civilian agencies do not think worst cases through. Back when I was doing this sort of stuff in J3, one of the possible tasks we kept turning down was an air photo mission over the federal corrections facilities to determine if the perimeter walls/fences were still intact.

Some of this reminds me of my young officer days in Gagetown when the officers of 3 CIBG sat in on a presentation on the plans for re-entry and rescue operations in the event of a nuclear attack on St John, NB. According to the folks at Target Area Headquarters St John, who worked out of the basement of a building in the H Lines, the best time for an attack from a re-entry and rescue point of view was at noon hour of a sunny work day in July. The thinking was that most people would be out in the open without a lot of protective clothing and thus would be less likely to survive the effects of the detonation. (These organizations tended to attract odd personalities.)


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## daftandbarmy (14 Apr 2010)

Old Sweat said:
			
		

> Colin
> 
> You're whistling past the graveyard. If when a major earthquake hits Vancouver, even the troops from Ft Lewis and McChord AFB will be only a drop in a bucket. The time and space factor, along with the relative remoteness of the greater Vancouver area from the rest of the continent by air, land or sea will pose a huge challenge. When I say relative remoteness, I am referring to force generation compared to even Haiti, which was more or less accessible from three sides.
> 
> It is not all gloom and doom. Given the adherence to building codes, the presence of a resource base of engineer equipment and a functioning multi-level government structure, recovery operations should be underway in short order. And of course, the bureaucrats will be able to make powerpoint presentations almost immediately.



Much of downtown Vancouver, I was told by an earthquake 'expert' there, is built on cinder blocks from the 1890s or so to keep the city out of the swamps that were a main feature of the local landscape at that time. This means that when the 'big one' hits, they can expect most of the buildings around the old part of town to collapse, causing around 6000 dead plus x 3 or 4 seriously injured. Being skid row, most of these people have no way of helping themselves now, let alone following a big disaster.

The phrase 'the living will envy the dead' comes to mind....  ;D


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## Colin Parkinson (16 Apr 2010)

Much of the East end of the main city is getting rebuilt with new buildings. There are lots of old buildings though, but the swamp areas do not make up all of the city. Some of the overpasses on HWY 1 around Canada way are built on loon poop and the recent upgrade required a impressive piling field to support it.


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## Armymedic (16 Apr 2010)

tongue in cheek:

Now that the Olympics are done, Vancouver's usefulness to the ROC (everything east of Winnipeg and west of Montreal) has come to completion. Perhaps it would be best for all if the entire city just slid into the sea.


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## Colin Parkinson (16 Apr 2010)

Well that would resolve the current real estate bubble and open up a whole area of waterfront to be sold off at cheap prices to friends of the current government.


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