# What would happen if:



## Weinie (18 Feb 2021)

We have all seen what has been happening in Texas. I suspect that the ramifications of a more widespread power event would be catastrophic, even here in Canada (goodbye Toronto and Montreal). 

The link below is dated, and perhaps a bit biased, but is a good start for discussion.

https://www.powermag.com/expect-death-if-pulse-event-hits-power-grid/


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## mariomike (18 Feb 2021)

Weinie said:


> I suspect that the ramifications of a more widespread power event would be catastrophic, even here in Canada (goodbye Toronto and Montreal).


Probably something like this,





I remember during the Toronto blackout of 2003 climbing over 20 flights of stairs to carry people down to the street from high-rises. 

The only real sure thing in this town is that the firemen come when you pull down the handle on that red box.


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## Weinie (18 Feb 2021)

mariomike said:


> Probably something like this,
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I am referring here to a much more catastrophic event, where Baba Wawa or her contemporary is not able to go on the news in a few days and report on a localized event. Think global.

Firemen are useless when you don't have heat, food , and water. I suspect that within 30 days, anarchy would ensue. The basic survival skills of many Canadians are negligible; as well, the vast majority of people do not have a basic stockpile of food/wood/water to get them through an event like this, even in the summer months. 

Many northern Canadian communities would survive, there is an abundance of natural resources that they could rely on. But they would have to adopt a "Walking Dead" approach to outsiders.


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## mariomike (18 Feb 2021)

Weinie said:


> , the vast majority of people do not have a basic stockpile of food/wood/water to get them through an event like this, even in the summer months.


People who "do not have a basic stockpile of food/wood/water", better have a basic stockpile of guns and ammo to acquire it. 

I'd probably head for my kid sister's ranch in Northern Alberta.



> Think global.



The Doomsday scenario you describe sounds futuristic. I don't care as I likely will have kicked the bucket by then.


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## Weinie (18 Feb 2021)

mariomike said:


> *The Doomsday scenario you describe sounds futuristic.* I don't care as I likely will have kicked the bucket by then.


As I type this, events are futuristic.

Did you even read the article? 

These events have already happened, albeit not in the current context or scale (yet), where they pose a calamitous threat.

My supposition is: What would happen if:


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## Colin Parkinson (18 Feb 2021)

Nothing will happen to reduce the impacts, because it's unlikely to happen in the current government term, therefore "Not my problem" and "What spend money on something I can't win votes for?"


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## Weinie (18 Feb 2021)

Colin Parkinson said:


> Nothing will happen to reduce the impacts, because it's unlikely to happen in the current government term, therefore "Not my problem" and "What spend money on something I can't win votes for?"


I was actually trying to spark some discussion about the current capacity of Canadians to deal with a real national (potentially global) crisis, notwithstanding the politics of any government in situ, because that won't really matter.


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## Colin Parkinson (18 Feb 2021)

BC has quite a few Independent Power Producers. (small hydro) So it's likley power will be restored to local areas and slowly expand. By protecting vital points, they can reduce the down time


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## Weinie (18 Feb 2021)

Colin Parkinson said:


> BC has quite a few Independent Power Producers. (small hydro) So it's likley power will be restored to local areas and slowly expand. By protecting vital points, they can reduce the down time


That is cool. Almonte, Ontario, which I drive though regularly, has some capacity as well. But the scenario posited supposes that catastrophic damage has been done to the transmission infrastructure itself, not the generating capacity.


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## Colin Parkinson (18 Feb 2021)

The IPP's will require shorter runs to local communities. Also I not sure exactly how it will damage modern transmission lines, it could be that the lines remain capable, but the switching gear, transformers are zapped. The devil is in the details.


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## Blackadder1916 (18 Feb 2021)

Weinie said:


> We have all seen what has been happening in T*exas*. I suspect that the ramifications of a more widespread power event would be catastrophic, even here in Canada (goodbye Toronto and Montreal).
> 
> The link below is dated, and perhaps a bit biased, but is a good start for discussion.
> 
> https://www.powermag.com/expect-death-if-pulse-event-hits-power-grid/



Texas, it's like a whole other country!  Borrowing the state's tourism slogan partially explains why their power system crapped out.  The Texas power grid is mostly separate from the rest of North America, though they are able to tie-in and purchase power from other systems but it is not an automatic system.  The reason for that is mainly political not technical; by not crossing state lines they are not generally subject to federal regulation. and there is a certain mindset down there about not having to listen to the Federal government.  So when the weather "temporarily" reaches record lows, in-state power generation is unable to meet demand.  The other southern states being hit by winter don't seem to have the same electrical problems.

I spent some time in Texas (Fort Sam Houston, San Antonio) a few decades ago and arrived there in December after driving down from Ottawa. While I left behind lots of snow and cold (and lots, lots more in upstate New York), I was amused during my drive listening to some of the weather warnings south of the Mason-Dixon that seemed to proclaim shut-downs of roads, schools and other services.  I particularly remember driving through Nashville amid radio reports of snow and dangerous road conditions; I'm still wondering where that snow was.  When I got to Fort Sam, a common complaint I heard was about the number of engine blocks that had cracked due to freezing.  I'm not saying that they are overstating the seriousness of their current predicament, however my experience is that Texans don't know real winter and of course haven't prepared for it.  Yes, they are being hit by extreme weather that they are unprepared for, but it's not the end of the world.  It'll warm up and the power will (slowly) come back on line.

So too would a similar situation in Canada resolve.  We probably have a better electrical system in most of Canada.  On the few occasions that major parts of the country had extended power interruptions (ice storms, hurricanes, blackouts, etc) we always recovered and civil society didn't break down.  The scenario proposed by the dated link supposes all electrical grids and all other forms of energy generation are simultaneously stopped; a bit far-fetched.


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## daftandbarmy (18 Feb 2021)

FWIW...

Forget winter, how about those Cyber Attacks? I thought this was a particularly well written document, if you haven't seen it yet. I assume some on this forum might have written parts of it!:

*Threats to Canada’s Critical Infrastructure 

Purpose *
The purpose of this paper on Threats to Canada’s Critical Infrastructure is to provide a taxonomy of the natural, accidental and malicious threats that have been identified as those most likely to impact upon Canada’s national critical infrastructure. The paper will aim to provide informed forecasting for the relative probability of these threats and hazards.

*Audience *
This report is primarily intended to provide owners and operators of Canadian critical infrastructure (CI) with baseline information regarding potential threats to their networks and systems. Owners and operators are the acknowledged experts with regard to the vulnerabilities they confront, but many have indicated that there is a lack of credible information regarding threats. Emergency managers in the public and private sectors could also employ this report to enhance their understanding of the variety of threats and hazards which the Government of Canada is addressing. Finally, policy makers at all levels of government may use the paper as a jumping-off point to examine threats and vulnerabilities in CI sectors within their constituencies.



			https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/lbrr/archives/cn000034012674-eng.pdf


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## lenaitch (18 Feb 2021)

The problem posed by the OP's link are about either naturally or artificially created high-energy electromagnetic pulses.  Under normal circumstances, generators and the grid can protect themselves and 'unhook' before they become destabilized in terms of generation vs. load (assuming they work as advertised - AKA the northeast blackout of '03).  Generators such as hydro, fossil fuel, wind and solar can power down quite quickly; with nuclear it is a process. The switching, transforming and protection equipment is often costly and not usually available off the shelf.  A small, nefarious, EMP would unlikely cause widespread difficultly; however, a large-scale one like a solar storm or nuclear device would likely cause widespread and long term disruption because, as the link says, they're not designed to shunt virtually instantaneous large induced current spikes to ground.  A local operator could possibly power a local area independent of a function grid, but most of their switching equipment is designed to 'power up' to grid voltages.  Large population centres would be well and truly screwed.  How well we managed it would vary, be clearly the economy would be seriously disrupted.


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## Weinie (18 Feb 2021)

lenaitch said:


> The problem posed by the OP's link are about either naturally or artificially created high-energy electromagnetic pulses.  Under normal circumstances, generators and the grid can protect themselves and 'unhook' before they become destabilized in terms of generation vs. load (assuming they work as advertised - AKA the northeast blackout of '03).  Generators such as hydro, fossil fuel, wind and solar can power down quite quickly; with nuclear it is a process. The switching, transforming and protection equipment is often costly and not usually available off the shelf.  A small, nefarious, EMP would unlikely cause widespread difficultly; however, a large-scale one like a solar storm or nuclear device would likely cause widespread and long term disruption because, as the link says, they're not designed to shunt virtually instantaneous large induced current spikes to ground.  A local operator could possibly power a local area independent of a function grid, but most of their switching equipment is designed to 'power up' to grid voltages.  Large population centres would be well and truly screwed.  How well we managed it would vary, be clearly the economy would be seriously disrupted.


Thanks lenaitch, you see what I am getting at. Without electricity, and the myriad of things that it supports, chaos would likely ensue.


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## Colin Parkinson (18 Feb 2021)

The  major threats to economy right now are:

large Solar Flare
cyberwarfare

The overarching threats to civilization are
Asteroid impact
unaccounted for rapid effects related to our poles flipping.

Preparing for each has it's challenges, but there are both over laps and unique components.


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## lenaitch (18 Feb 2021)

Weinie said:


> Thanks lenaitch, you see what I am getting at. Without electricity, and the myriad of things that it supports, chaos would likely ensue.



The n/e blackout, ice storm of '98 and the current situation were instructive relatively small scale examples.  The blackout, while widespread, had the advantage of being in the summer and, for most people only lasted a day or two.  The ice storm, beyond the infrastructure damage to the utilities themselves, proved particularly difficult, for example, large dairy operations.  Even institutions that had installed backup power found that they weren't really set up for protracted use (fuel, overheating, etc.).  The Texas situation is a lesson is grid robustness and oversight.  They are their own grid with non-automatic inter-ties and a lot of corporate ownership.  On another diy site I haunt, people are scrambling with freezing pipes and private water companies simply shutting down.  Neighbouring states, that experienced the same weather, have had problems but not near to the same extent.

I'd likely be as screwed as the next guy.   I have a generator but I don't believe it would run my new high-tech furnace.  Even if it did, I have only a few days of fuel.  Once the food runs out, the dogs would be in trouble.


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## TangoTwoBravo (19 Feb 2021)

What would any modern society do with a 30 day blackout in winter? Why not ask what would we do with an asteroid strike?  It would be catastrophic regardless of what preparations individuals made.


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## Fishbone Jones (19 Feb 2021)

I got a wood stove in the garage and lots of wood. I have two generators and about to pick up a third. I have a ten foot fence around my yard and wire for the top, when the law doesn't matter anymore. Guns, ammo, reloading presses and supplies. IMPS in the attic. A still for making fuel. I think I'm  good. Oh, and lots of squirrels around for protien.🙂


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## OldSolduer (19 Feb 2021)

Weinie said:


> Thanks lenaitch, you see what I am getting at. Without electricity, and the myriad of things that it supports, chaos would likely ensue.


What about the Zombie Apocalypse? eh???


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## NavyShooter (19 Feb 2021)

There's a guy who wrote about about a theoretical EMP attack against North America.









						Lights Out by Halffast - signed copies - David Crawford
					

The drawing is over. You can purchase signed copies of Lights Out here: Lights Out by David Crawford - aka Halffast  Update 12/3/2010: Updated cover...




					www.survivalmonkey.com
				




Interesting....backups are good in the short term, but very inefficient.  I have a 10Kw Genset for my house, but it burns 14 gallons of gas a day, running 24/7 at 50% load.  

I have enough gas to run it for 3 days steady, but, if I spread it out and run 50% of the time could get 6 days.  

Is the solution to have more gas, or more alternate power?  (I have a small solar panel setup as well, but that's TINY compared to the needs of a house.)

If the grid goes down short term (highly realistic in my experience) because of storm/weather/etc, I can get by for about a week.  If the grid goes down for a month....or more....I don't think anyone will be in a good place.


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## Edward Campbell (19 Feb 2021)

Some real engineers should weigh-in, but, as I understand it, from some limited reading in the past few days, the Texas power grid/system is poorly designed and has an unacceptably low RAMD (Reliability, Availablity, Maintainability, Durability) profile. Most, likely not all, North American and European power systems, including Canada's, are better designed ... or so I've read and so I hope.

There is nothing inherently wrong with 'renewables' as parts of a system IF one understands that they, by their very nature, are *unreliable* and, therefore, the system must be able to operate, reliably and at peak capacity, without them.

There are, I think, some real engineering challenges to "_going green_" and still powering a modern society, including:

   1. Developing a reasonably compact, cheap, long-lasting battery to store renewable power;
   2. Developing recyclable solar panels and windmill blades; and
   3. Safely disposing of spent nuclear fuel.

But we built the pyramids and the Great Wall of China and went to the moon with less engineering skill and knowledge than we have now, so none of those challenges, is, _in my opinion_, beyond the wit of modern men and women.

Coal, oil and gas are finite, non-renewable (not quickly renewable) resources. So is uranium, for that matter, but its "energy density" is so high that we have thousands if not millions of years' worth of proven reserves here in Canada, alone. We should not want to dam up too many more rivers, should we, just to power our big-screen TVs? That indicates that 'renewables' should be part of our 21st-century power grids/systems, but they will be, for the foreseeable future (into the 22nd century?) an adjunct component, not the backbone.


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## daftandbarmy (19 Feb 2021)

Edward Campbell said:


> Some real engineers should weigh-in, but, as I understand it, from some limited reading in the past few days, the Texas power grid/system is poorly designed and has an unacceptably low RAMD (Reliability, Availablity, Maintainability, Durability) profile. Most, likely not all, North American and European power systems, including Canada's, are better designed ... or so I've read and so I hope.
> 
> There is nothing inherently wrong with 'renewables' as parts of a system IF one understands that they, by their very nature, are *unreliable* and, therefore, the system must be able to operate, reliably and at peak capacity, without them.
> 
> ...



Smart Coal: it's a thing:

Coal Plants of the Future​At the Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), cost-effectiveness of new technologies is a major priority—but so are efforts to bring existing coal plant technologies to market in the near-term (between the next three to five years) under its newly launched Transformative Power Generation Program. Echoing other coal technology advocates—such as the International Energy Agency’s IEA Clean Coal Center (CCC)—it envisions that coal power will need several critical attributes to compete in future markets:

*High overall plant efficiency. *Plants will need to achieve a heating value of 40% or higher at full load over most of the generation range. They must also minimize water consumption.

*Smallness or modularity and be fast to build.* Plants must be compact, modular, resilient, and flexible, and be no larger than 50 MW to 350 MW to minimize design, construction, and commissioning schedules.

*Near-zero emissions. *Future designs and retrofits should emit less carbon than natural gas power generation technology.

*Highly flexible.* Ramp rates and minimum loads must be compatible with 2050 estimates of renewable energy integration. They must also be able to integrate with thermal or other energy storage to mitigate inefficiencies and equipment damage, or be capable of firing other fuels, including natural gas and hydrogen. Additionally, they must be able to integrate with coal upgrading or other plant value streams, such as co-production.

*Enhanced operations and maintenance. *They must incorporate advanced monitoring and diagnostics to reduce downtime.









						Transformative Coal Power Technologies Take Shape
					

The coal power industry acknowledges that to play a stable role in future power markets, it needs to modernize, and perhaps even overhaul its long-held status as a “conventional generator.” Could new




					www.powermag.com


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## Colin Parkinson (19 Feb 2021)

i worked with a group that wanted to build a modern coal plant near Murry River in BC, the coal would be dug out of the hillside and carried to the hopper, where it would be crushed and ground to a fine powder and then injected under pressure creating a very high heat and burn ration, with modern exhausts meeting the high standards of today. It would feed into the existing powerline 5 km away. It was cancelled due to a change in government policy.
To be fair most of BC coal is to high of quality to warrant burning for power, better for coking or making the charcoal filters the progressives love so much.


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## daftandbarmy (19 Feb 2021)

Colin Parkinson said:


> i worked with a group that wanted to build a modern coal plant near Murry River in BC, the coal would be dug out of the hillside and carried to the hopper, where it would be crushed and ground to a fine powder and then injected under pressure creating a very high heat and burn ration, with modern exhausts meeting the high standards of today. It would feed into the existing powerline 5 km away. It was cancelled due to a change in government policy.
> To be fair most of BC coal is to high of quality to warrant burning for power, better for coking or making the charcoal filters the progressives love so much.



China loves BC coal.... I wonder if we can claim some kind of payback from the world for everything they've made for the planet using our 'black diamonds'?


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## HiTechComms (19 Feb 2021)

NavyShooter said:


> There's a guy who wrote about about a theoretical EMP attack against North America.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


There is a good book series by Steven Konkoly: Alex Fletcher.. Really like the 5 books.

What would happen to Toronto and Montreal in a huge power outage.. Well I think a lot of people not in Ontario or Quebec would care and some may I say would be happy if it happened.

Maybe the paranoia in me but I have a bug out bag for my spouse and myself, have at least enough dried food and rations to last at least 2 months.


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## HiTechComms (19 Feb 2021)

Colin Parkinson said:


> i worked with a group that wanted to build a modern coal plant near Murry River in BC, the coal would be dug out of the hillside and carried to the hopper, where it would be crushed and ground to a fine powder and then injected under pressure creating a very high heat and burn ration, with modern exhausts meeting the high standards of today. It would feed into the existing powerline 5 km away. It was cancelled due to a change in government policy.
> To be fair most of BC coal is to high of quality to warrant burning for power, better for coking or making the charcoal filters the progressives love so much.


Well if we could just harvest the crap that comes out of progressives and have bio generators like they have in Europe we will be set!


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## mariomike (19 Feb 2021)

Weinie said:


> Think global.


My bad.  I was thinking local.

Survivalists and _preppers, may find this five-page discussion of interest,_



> Survival and Prepping
> I want to propose an idea for a new forum to the staff (and members) to see if it's a worth while effort.


5 pages.

( Not sure how to link it from the old site. But, the thread "Survival and Prepping" comes up in a search on this new site. )


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## Journeyman (20 Feb 2021)

I read "goodbye Toronto and Montreal."  That cheered me up enough that I didn't read further.


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## Colin Parkinson (20 Feb 2021)

What we need is a group of politicians, senior Public Service management and Utilities Management that have a long term outlook to look at our infrastructure and identify what is the weaknesses that exist for each Province. Then catalogue them into easy, medium and hard fixes. Create a series of Standards that each Utility and strive for and be rewarded for reaching it. then for the short term thinkers, there is achievable and more immediate goal to fixate upon. 
Old saying in the Infrastructure business; "If we do our job right, nobody notices".


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## LittleBlackDevil (20 Feb 2021)

HiTechComms said:


> There is a good book series by Steven Konkoly: Alex Fletcher.. Really like the 5 books.



Looks like an interesting series, I may try at least the first one out.

On the topic of good book series on a "SHTF" sort of theme, both myself and my children all greatly enjoyed the series by William R. Forstchen about an EMP attack on the United States ... _One Second After_, _One Year After,_ and _The Final Day_.



HiTechComms said:


> What would happen to Toronto and Montreal in a huge power outage.. Well I think a lot of people not in Ontario or Quebec would care and some may I say would be happy if it happened.



Couldn't happen to nicer people ...

That said, I think a lengthy power out could get ugly in places like that. To the average Canadian, "prepping" of any kind is tinfoil hat stuff. To even mention you do any prepping, you have to preface it with "I may be paranoid" or "I just like to be ready for anything" for people to not think you're completely nuts. I suspect that in big liberal cities like Toronto and Montreal, people have even less by way of preparation than others and unlike me here in my rural home, don't have wood burning stoves or other alternate forms of heat. They probably don't even have many extra blankets or candles.

It probably wouldn't become complete chaos though. I remember during the big blackout of 2003 and was pleasantly surprised that there wasn't an explosion of crime and civil unrest. Granted, it only lasted a day for most people and four days at worst. I think if it stretched on for weeks things would start getting pretty flaky as people get desperate and criminals see opportunity.



HiTechComms said:


> Maybe the paranoia in me but I have a bug out bag for my spouse and myself, have at least enough dried food and rations to last at least 2 months.



I don't think that's paranoia; just good sense IMO. I have a "get home bag" in case anything hits the fan while I'm at work, it will help ensure I am able to get home (about 40 km). Trying to build my way up to several months of storable food, but with a family of seven that's a lot of food. Add a little bit every month and it is (slowly) adding up.


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## LittleBlackDevil (20 Feb 2021)

Weinie said:


> We have all seen what has been happening in Texas. I suspect that the ramifications of a more widespread power event would be catastrophic, even here in Canada (goodbye Toronto and Montreal).
> 
> The link below is dated, and perhaps a bit biased, but is a good start for discussion.
> 
> https://www.powermag.com/expect-death-if-pulse-event-hits-power-grid/



You had me at "goodbye Toronto and Montreal" 

Seriously, though, the article you posted matched with research I've done. My family are big fans of William R. Forstchen's books about an EMP attack on the US and he posited over 90% of the population of the USA dying in such circumstances, and that's in a scenario where it wasn't global and there were still other countries that could send some aid. It's also EMP where everything electronic is fried, not just the power grid going down.

Overall, I think his novels are convincing and well-researched and give a very realistic take on what could happen. Within a week they are having to shoot looters and a few months after that having pitched battles against roving barbarian mobs who are raping and murdering (eating) their way across the countryside. 

We don't realize how intricate the systems are that deliver even our most basic supplies. A global power outage would get really ugly, really fast, IMO.

As I mentioned in a previous post the vast majority of people have no preparation at all, even for a minor disaster like an ice storm. Most people have only a few days worth of food in their house. Most people are wholly dependant on "Big Brother" and would not function well in a situation where the government essentially ceases to exist due to lack of communications.


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## Colin Parkinson (20 Feb 2021)

Thankfully my old landrover will survive an EMP attack and is handcranked as well.


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## mariomike (20 Feb 2021)

HiTechComms said:


> What would happen to Toronto and Montreal in a huge power outage.


Only happened twice in Toronto during my lifetime. Don't remember much about the first, as I was only 11 years old. We lived in a rather secluded enclave of what was still officially a Village with our own Police Dept. So little traffic there were no sidewalks. Surrounded on three sides by a lake, a river and a pond. Hills and ravines. So, back then, same as now, what happened in the outside world was of little concern to us.

Sounds like some of you guys probably know Toronto better than I do, now.

But, I remember the second power outage very well.

Emergency power systems at Emergency Services Headquarters maintained communications and dispatch functions.

The Department of Emergency Services ( DES ) activated the Healthcare Divisional Operations Centre (H-DOC) and declared a divisional emergency once the scope of the blackout was known.

DES negotiated dangerous streets lacking lights and traffic signals, climbed multiple flights of stairs to access patients in apartment buildings, and carried patients down the stairs to the street.

Call Volumes were twice the normal levels in the first hours of the blackout and increased call levels for the next couple days.

We distributed portable generators and fuel to enable recharging of radio and defibrillator batteries in the service districts. We ensured adequate supplies of water were available for DES.

Our  Community Medicine Paramedics issued two news releases during the blackout offering advice to residents on how to cope with the heat without air conditioning and asking the public to check on vulnerable citizens and help protect them from heat-related illnesses.

We activated Telecomm 1. Due to the high volume of calls, we did not respond to "stuck elevator" calls unless there was a confirmed patient.

DES was mandated to work 16 hours on, and 8 hours off for the duration. I slept at HQ.

The trunk portable radio and the paging system failed and the cellular phone system was intermittently interrupted.

Staff delivered portable generators and fuel to each Service District to assist in the charging of portable radios and defibrillator batteries within each District.

Our Emergency Power Unit (EPU) truck was deployed to Southlake Regional Hospital due to a failure of their back-up power system.

Our call volume increased by 100 per cent, compared to the week before.

Metro Police reported no spike in crime.

Whenever I read our prepper threads, I can't help remembering that John Goodman movie.


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## HiTechComms (22 Feb 2021)

LittleBlackDevil said:


> Looks like an interesting series, I may try at least the first one out.
> 
> On the topic of good book series on a "SHTF" sort of theme, both myself and my children all greatly enjoyed the series by William R. Forstchen about an EMP attack on the United States ... _One Second After_, _One Year After,_ and _The Final Day_.
> 
> ...


Oh if you like EMP attacks then you will enjoy the Alex Fletcher series. I read the first book and got the pack on audible for sale.

Well just because you are paranoid that doesn't mean they are not after you. But yes I agree that "excusing" paranoia for some common sense is very weird.  Just like people say you have guns that must mean oh "I hope am not your enemy" Annoying.

I live in a small city but that doesn't mean I cannot take precautions.


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