# Lebanon (Superthread)



## CanadaPhil (12 Jul 2006)

Well folks, it looks like more of the same from the land of lunacy:

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=578&u=/nm/20060712/ts_nm/mideast_dc_274

Looks the extremists have now proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that there will NEVER be any kind of meaningful peace in this region.


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## tomahawk6 (12 Jul 2006)

I see the possibility of Israeli operations in Lebanon and Syria against terrorist camps.


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## Spr.Earl (13 Jul 2006)

Humm they had better becarefull as they may become over streched as the U.S. is now.


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## GAP (13 Jul 2006)

Ever since they got surprised in the Yom Kipper War, they've always adjusted their forces to be able to respond effectively on 3 fronts. I see they have called up the reserves, which dramatically increases their manpower/abilities


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## Spr.Earl (13 Jul 2006)

GAP said:
			
		

> Ever since they got surprised in the Yom Kipper War, they've always adjusted their forces to be able to respond effectively on 3 fronts. I see they have called up the reserves, which dramatically increases their manpower/abilities


So has the US,granted they a have shorter battle front's but the what if is if the they ignite the whole of the middle east what's next?


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## Gunnar (13 Jul 2006)

It sounds more like, having had their asses handed to them in Afghanistan (Canadians don't need to be a part of the US war, we have no quarrel with Canada = we are getting our asses kicked), and the restructure of Iraq in spite of all they can do to stop it (most "insurgents" are foreign nationals), Al-Queda et al have decided to attack Israel to see if they can provoke an invasion of Syria.  Remember, it's all a US/Jewish consipiracy in their eyes...so attacking Israel is a local way of irritating the US.

All the US has to do is let Israel take care of their own affairs and clean house, and the problem will go away.  Well, it will never go away, but we can ensure that the tactic doesn't work.


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## tomahawk6 (13 Jul 2006)

Israel is mobilizing reserves for a big push into Lebanon and perhaps take a side trip to Damascus. Iran has set the wheels in motion for all out war which will see their clients destroyed and Iran's regime losing face in the muslim world.


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## Bert (13 Jul 2006)

Another Stratfor special
www.stratfor.com


Middle East Crisis: Backgrounder
Israel lives with three realities: geographic, demographic and cultural. Geographically, it is at a permanent disadvantage, lacking strategic depth. It does enjoy the advantage of interior lines -- the ability to move forces rapidly from one front to another. Demographically, it is on the whole outnumbered, although it can achieve local superiority in numbers by choosing the time and place of war. Its greatest advantage is cultural. It has a far greater mastery of the technology and culture of war than its neighbors.

Two of the realities cannot be changed. Nothing can be done about geography or demography. Culture can be changed. It is not inherently the case that Israel will have a technological or operational advantage over its neighbors. The great inherent fear of Israel is that the Arabs will equal or surpass Israeli prowess culturally and therefore militarily. If that were to happen, then all three realities would turn against Israel and Israel might well be at risk.

That is why the capture of Israeli troops, first one in the south, then two in the north, has galvanized Israel. The kidnappings represent a level of Arab tactical prowess that previously was the Israeli domain. They also represent a level of tactical slackness on the Israeli side that was previously the Arab domain. These events hardly represent a fundamental shift in the balance of power. Nevertheless, for a country that depends on its cultural superiority, any tremor in this variable reverberates dramatically. Hamas and Hezbollah have struck the core Israeli nerve. Israel cannot ignore it.

Embedded in Israel's demographic problem is this: Israel has national security requirements that outstrip its manpower base. It can field a sufficient army, but its industrial base cannot supply all of the weapons needed to fight high-intensity conflicts. This means it is always dependent on an outside source for its industrial base and must align its policies with that source. At first this was the Soviets, then France and finally the United States. Israel broke with the Soviets and France when their political demands became too intense. It was after 1967 that it entered into a patron-client relationship with the United States. This relationship is its strength and its weakness. It gives the Israelis the systems they need for national security, but since U.S. and Israeli interests diverge, the relationship constrains Israel's range of action.

During the Cold War, the United States relied on Israel for a critical geopolitical function. The fundamental U.S. interest was Turkey, which controlled the Bosporus and kept the Soviet fleet under control in the Mediterranean. The emergence of Soviet influence in Syria and Iraq -- which was not driven by U.S. support for Israel since the United States did not provide all that much support compared to France -- threatened Turkey with attack from two directions, north and south. Turkey could not survive this. Israel drew Syrian attention away from Turkey by threatening Damascus and drawing forces and Soviet equipment away from the Turkish frontier. Israel helped secure Turkey and turned a Soviet investment into a dry hole.

Once Egypt signed a treaty with Israel and Sinai became a buffer zone, Israel became safe from a full peripheral war -- everyone attacking at the same time. Jordan was not going to launch an attack and Syria by itself could not strike. The danger to Israel became Palestinian operations inside of Israel and the occupied territories and the threat posed from Lebanon by the Syrian-sponsored group Hezbollah.

In 1982, Israel responded to this threat by invading Lebanon. It moved as far north as Beirut and the mountains east and northeast of it. Israel did not invade Beirut proper, since Israeli forces do not like urban warfare as it imposes too high a rate of attrition. But what the Israelis found was low-rate attrition. Throughout their occupation of Lebanon, they were constantly experiencing guerrilla attacks, particularly from Hezbollah.

Hezbollah has two patrons: Syria and Iran. The Syrians have used Hezbollah to pursue their political and business interests in Lebanon. Iran has used Hezbollah for business and ideological reasons. Business interests were the overlapping element. In the interest of business, it became important to Hezbollah, Syria and Iran that an accommodation be reached with Israel. Israel wanted to withdraw from Lebanon in order to end the constant low-level combat and losses. 

Israel withdrew in 1988, having reached quiet understandings with Syria that Damascus would take responsibility for Hezbollah, in return for which Israel would not object to Syrian domination of Lebanon. Iran, deep in its war with Iraq, was not in a position to object if it had wanted to. Israel returned to its borders in the north, maintaining a security presence in the south of Lebanon that lasted for several years.

As Lebanon blossomed and Syria's hold on it loosened, Iran also began to increase its regional influence. Its hold on some elements of Hezbollah strengthened, and in recent months, Hezbollah -- aligning itself with Iranian Shiite ideology -- has become more aggressive. Iranian weapons were provided to Hezbollah, and tensions grew along the frontier. This culminated in the capture of two soldiers in the north and the current crisis.

It is difficult to overestimate the impact of the soldier kidnappings on the Israeli psyche. First, while the Israeli military is extremely highly trained, Israel is also a country with mass conscription. Having a soldier kidnapped by Arabs hits every family in the country. The older generation is shocked and outraged that members of the younger generation have been captured and worried that they allowed themselves to be captured; therefore, the younger generation needs to prove it too can defeat the Arabs. This is not a primary driver, but it is a dimension.

The more fundamental issue is this: Israel withdrew from Lebanon in order to escape low-intensity conflict. If Hezbollah is now going to impose low-intensity conflict on Israel's border, the rationale for withdrawal disappears. It is better for Israel to fight deep in Lebanon than inside Israel. If the rockets are going to fall in Israel proper, then moving into a forward posture has no cost to Israel.

From an international standpoint, the Israelis expect to be condemned. These international condemnations, however, are now having the opposite effect of what is intended. The Israeli view is that they will be condemned regardless of what they do. The differential between the condemnation of reprisal attacks and condemnation of a full invasion is not enough to deter more extreme action. If Israel is going to be attacked anyway, it might as well achieve its goals. 

Moreover, an invasion of Hezbollah-held territory aligns Israel with the United States. U.S. intelligence has been extremely concerned about the growing activity of Hezbollah, and U.S. relations with Iran are not good. Lebanon is the center of gravity of Hezbollah, and the destruction of Hezbollah capabilities in Lebanon, particularly the command structure, would cripple Hezbollah operations globally in the near future. The United States would very much like to see that happen, but cannot do it itself. Moreover, an Israeli action would enrage the Islamic world, but it would also drive home the limits of Iranian power. Once again, Iran would have dropped Lebanon in the grease, and not been hurt itself. The lesson of Hezbollah would not be lost on the Iraqi Shia -- or so the Bush administration would hope.

Therefore, this is one Israeli action that benefits the United States, and thus helps the immediate situation as well as long-term geopolitical alignments. It realigns the United States and Israel. This also argues that any invasion must be devastating to Hezbollah. It must go deep. It must occupy temporarily. It must shatter Hezbollah.

At this point, the Israelis appear to be unrolling a war plan in this direction. They have blockaded the Lebanese coast. Israeli aircraft are attacking what air power there is in Lebanon, and have attacked Hezbollah and other key command-and-control infrastructure. It would follow that the Israelis will now concentrate on destroying Hezbollah -- and Lebanese -- communications capabilities and attacking munitions dumps, vehicle sites, rocket-storage areas and so forth.

Most important, Israel is calling up its reserves. This is never a symbolic gesture in Israel. All Israelis below middle age are in the reserves and mobilization is costly in every sense of the word. If the Israelis were planning a routine reprisal, they would not be mobilizing. But they are, which means they are planning to do substantially more than retributive airstrikes. The question is what their plan is.

Given the blockade and what appears to be the shape of the airstrikes, it seems to us at the moment the Israelis are planning to go fairly deep into Lebanon. The logical first step is a move to the Litani River in southern Lebanon. But given the missile attacks on Haifa, they will go farther, not only to attack launcher sites, but to get rid of weapons caches. This means a move deep into the Bekaa Valley, the seat of Hezbollah power and the location of plants and facilities. Such a penetration would leave Israeli forces' left flank open, so a move into Bekaa would likely be accompanied by attacks to the west. It would bring the Israelis close to Beirut again.

This leaves Israel's right flank exposed, and that exposure is to Syria. The Israeli doctrine is that leaving Syrian airpower intact while operating in Lebanon is dangerous. Therefore, Israel must at least be considering using its air force to attack Syrian facilities, unless it gets ironclad assurances the Syrians will not intervene in any way. Conversations are going on between Egypt and Syria, and we suspect this is the subject. But Israel would not necessarily object to the opportunity of eliminating Syrian air power as part of its operation, or if Syria chooses, going even further.

At the same time, Israel does not intend to get bogged down in Lebanon again. It will want to go in, wreak havoc, withdraw. That means it will go deeper and faster, and be more devastating, than if it were planning a long-term occupation. It will go in to liquidate Hezbollah and then leave. True, this is no final solution, but for the Israelis, there are no final solutions.

Israeli forces are already in Lebanon. Its special forces are inside identifying targets for airstrikes. We expect numerous air attacks over the next 48 hours, as well as reports of firefights in southern Lebanon. We also expect more rocket attacks on Israel.

It will take several days to mount a full invasion of Lebanon. We would not expect major operations before the weekend at the earliest. If the rocket attacks are taking place, however, Israel might send several brigades to the Litani River almost immediately in order to move the rockets out of range of Haifa. Therefore, we would expect a rapid operation in the next 24-48 hours followed by a larger force later.

At this point, the only thing that can prevent this would be a major intervention by Syria with real guarantees that it would restrain Hezbollah and indications such operations are under way. Syria is the key to a peaceful resolution. Syria must calculate the relative risks, and we expect them to be unwilling to act decisively.

Therefore:

1. Israel cannot tolerate an insurgency on its northern frontier; if there is one, it wants it farther north.

2. It cannot tolerate attacks on Haifa.

3. It cannot endure a crisis of confidence in its military

4. Hezbollah cannot back off of its engagement with Israel.

5. Syria can stop this, but the cost to it stopping it is higher than the cost of letting it go on.

It would appear Israel will invade Lebanon. The global response will be noisy. There will be no substantial international action against Israel. Beirut's tourism and transportation industry, as well as its financial sectors, are very much at risk.



Shared in accordance with the "fair dealing" provisions, Section 29, of the Copyright Act - http://www.cb-cda.gc.ca/info/act-e.html#rid-33409


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## Sig_Des (13 Jul 2006)

I was living in Northern Israel in 96 when the Israeli army was responding to a Hezbollah rocket offensive with Op "Grapes of wrath". The Israelis take their security seriously, and their reserve support is extensive. They need it to be.

The problem is, they've done this before, in 1993 Israel was unable to disrupt Hezbollah operations with Op Accountability. We'll have to see how this phases out.

I'm only wondering how UNTSO's Observer Group Lebanon will be affected by this. We'll just have to see how this will be play out


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## tomahawk6 (14 Jul 2006)

Saar-5 corvette was hit by rockets but some reports say it was a UAV. Four crewmen are missing out of a 62 man crew.








http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1150885994586&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull


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## big bad john (14 Jul 2006)

According to BBC scroll announcement "LATEST: Israel confirms four soldiers are missing after Hezbollah attack on ship. More soon"


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## Cloud Cover (14 Jul 2006)

I hear it was a radio controlled plane.


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## big bad john (14 Jul 2006)

http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/meast/07/14/mideast/index.html

Hezbollah ready for 'war on every level'
Israeli warship hit, burning off coast of Lebanon

Friday, July 14, 2006; Posted: 10:01 p.m. EDT (02:01 GMT) 



 | What Is This? BEIRUT, Lebanon (CNN) -- Hezbollah is prepared for "open war" against Israel and its fighters will take aim at the warships that "attacked our civilians," the militant group's leader, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, said in a speech broadcast on Hezbollah television.

Minutes later, a warship off the Lebanese coast was struck by what the Israel Defense Forces said was an unmanned aircraft packed with explosives, damaging the ship's steering capability. Hezbollah-run television station Al Manar reported that the boat was struck by two missiles. 

The IDF reported there were no casualties. Hours later, the IDF said the ship was still on fire and was being towed back to Israel.

"You wanted an open war, you will have an open war," Nasrallah said. "You don't know who you are fighting today. You are fighting the children of Mohammed, ali Hassan and Hussein. You chose the war to fight against people who believe in their pride." (Watch Nasrallah say Hezbollah is ready for war -- 2:14)

"We are ready for it -- war, war on every level," he said.

It was unclear whether the speech, which was broadcast with audio only, was taped or live.

Since the kidnapping on Wednesday of two Israeli soldiers by Hezbollah guerrillas, which Israel says sparked the ongoing offensive, Israel has blocked ports, closed the main international airport by destroying its runways and struck strategic points around Lebanon.

Lebanese officials are urging the United Nations and the United States to intervene to halt the Israeli attacks. (Are the chances for diplomacy fizzling?)

Since Wednesday, 63 Lebanese, including two soldiers, have been killed and 167 others have been wounded, according to Lebanon's internal security forces. (Watch Lebanese try to cope with violence in Beirut -- 4:10)

The IDF reported that at least four Israeli civilians and eight Israeli soldiers have been killed, and more than 100 others have been wounded. (Watch an Israeli family deal with life in harm's way -- 2:02)

In his broadcast speech, Nasrallah also warned that if Israel took its offensive to Beirut that Hezbollah would exact retaliation on the northern Israeli port city of Haifa, about 30 miles from the Lebanese border.

"I will not tell you any more. If you hit the suburbs or Beirut, we will hit Haifa," he said. "We are going to an open war, to Haifa and beyond Haifa.

"We will not be the only ones who will lose their children and houses," he added.

Israel on Thursday struck numerous targets in Beirut, including the international airport, as rockets from Lebanon landed in Haifa. Hezbollah denied firing those rockets.

'Comprehensive plans'
Israel has struck targets including Hezbollah offices, weapons-storage facilities, airports, bridges and roads, including the main highway between Beirut and the Syrian capital of Damascus. (Watch how Israel targeted Hezbollah's headquarters -- 2:15

Israel has set up a naval blockade, preventing cruise ships from docking in Beirut and cutting off the fuel supply to Lebanese power plants.

Maj. Gen. Udi Adam, head of Israel's Northern Command, said Wednesday there were "comprehensive plans" to battle Hezbollah throughout Lebanon, and not just in the Islamic militia's southern stronghold. Israeli Ambassador to the U.S. Daniel Ayalon said the current mission was designed to "de-fang the Hezbollah."

Nasrallah promised to "stand fast" in the face of Israeli attacks, which continued Friday.

In an unusual deal that the United States helped broker, a runway at the Beirut airport was repaired long enough to enable six planes -- one carrying former Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Nakati -- to take off. Israeli forces soon after bombed the runway again.

Israel later hit the Zahrani power plant south of Beirut, a parking lot near the Beirut airport, a tunnel to the airport, a fuel depot and two bridges, according to the Lebanese army. The IDF reported attacks on Hezbollah outposts in the south, a weapons-storage facility and three gas stations south of Sidon. (What is Hezbollah?)

The Lebanese port cities of Tripoli, Sidon and Tyre reported their ports were blocked by Israeli warships.

Nasrallah's home hit
Israel also attacked the neighborhood in southern Beirut where Nasrallah lives, and his apartment building was hit, according to Al Manar. Nasrallah's family was not hurt, the station reported. Also, explosions could be heard coming from the area housing Hezbollah headquarters and the studios of a Hezbollah radio station.

Lebanese defense officials reported that Israeli warplanes hit the headquarters for the Syrian-backed Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine in eastern Lebanon as well.

Israel also launched fresh attacks Friday on the Beirut-Damascus highway.

Friday's attacks came as the Israeli Cabinet approved a continued military operation aimed at recovering the kidnapped Ehud Goldvasser, 31, and Eldad Regev, 26.

In response to the Israeli attacks, Hezbollah fighters volleyed a new wave of rockets into at least six north Israeli towns -- Carmiel, Nahariya, Safed, Hatzor, Meron and Pqui'in. according to rescue services. (Watch how Israel and Hezbollah swapped blows -- 2:08)

A woman and her 5-year-old grandson were killed by a rocket in Meron, Israeli authorities said. Also, a barrage of Katyushas hit Kiryat Shmona, according to the IDF, and Israeli television showed pictures of a rocket hitting a home in Nasariya. The occupants were wounded, according to the report.

Israelis were warned to stay away from vulnerable areas, but the government did not order them into bomb shelters.

Hezbollah, which enjoys substantial backing from Syria and Iran, is considered a terrorist organization by the United States and Israel. The group holds 23 of the 128 seats in Lebanon's parliament. 

The Islamic militia has said it wants to negotiate with Israel on a prisoner exchange, a demand Israel has rebuffed, saying it would encourage more kidnappings. A third Israeli soldier is also being held captive in Gaza, where Israel has refused demands for a prisoner swap with Hamas and other groups. 

Israel has exchanged prisoners with Hezbollah before, most recently in 2004 when Israel handed over more than 400 Palestinian, Lebanese and Arab prisoners for an Israeli businessman and the bodies of three Israeli soldiers. (Timeline of Israel-Lebanon conflict) 

Copyright 2006 CNN. All rights reserved.This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. Associated Press contributed to this report


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## big bad john (14 Jul 2006)

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/5182048.stm

Hezbollah leader vows 'open war'  
  
Both militant and civilian targets have been hit in Beirut


Reaction to attacks  
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has promised "open war" against Israel, in an address broadcast shortly after his Beirut offices were bombed by Israel. 
The militant group said its leader was unhurt in the attack. It was not clear when his remarks were recorded. 

Israel is demanding Hezbollah free two Israeli soldiers. More than 60 Lebanese have been killed in the offensive. 

Meanwhile Israel says four soldiers are missing after a naval ship was damaged by a Hezbollah explosive drone. 

It is thought to be the first time Hezbollah has used such a weapon. 

The ship has now been towed back to Haifa and a search is continuing for the missing men. 

Israel says a Hezbollah rocket aimed at one of its ships early on Saturday missed, and hit a civilian ship instead. 

'War on every level' 

In his address on Hezbollah's TV channel in Lebanon, Sheikh Nasrallah referred to an Israeli warship he said had launched attacks from of the coast of Lebanon, saying: "Look at the warship that has attacked Beirut, while it burns and sinks before your very eyes." 

  




Israel later confirmed that one of its warships had been "lightly" damaged by rockets fired from the shore. 

But later unnamed military officials were reported as saying that the ship's steering had been damaged, that its helicopter deck had been hit and that it was still on fire hours after the attack. 

Sheikh Nasrallah threatened Israel, saying: "You wanted an open war and we are ready for an open war." 

 ISRAEL IN LEBANON 
March 1978: Israel invades to stop Palestinian attacks
1982: Full-scale invasion; Israel occupies Beirut; pro-Israel militias massacre Palestinian refugees
May 1983: Israel pulls back, but keeps "security zone"
February 1992: Israeli air strike kills Hezbollah leader
1996: Israel launches "Grapes of Wrath" raids on Hezbollah; 100 civilians die under Israeli shelling of UN base at Qana
May 2000: Israel withdraws troops from Lebanon
January 2004: Prisoners-bodies swap agreed between Hezbollah and Israel


Early test of Olmert's mettle 
Who are Hezbollah? 
Online debate: Israeli and Lebanese  

The Hezbollah leader promised "war on every level". He said the Israeli coastal city of Haifa would come under attack, "and believe me, even beyond Haifa". 

"Our homes will not be the only ones to be destroyed, our children will not be the only ones to die," he said. 

Hezbollah has continued rocket attacks on northern Israel - 70 were fired on Friday alone. 

A mother and daughter died in an attack on the town of Meron. Two Israelis died in attacks on Thursday. 

Leaflet warnings 

The crisis began when Hezbollah guerrillas seized two Israeli soldiers in a cross-border raid from Lebanon on Wednesday. Eight Israeli troops were also killed. 

Israel responded with a major offensive - its biggest in more than two decades. The targets included not only Hezbollah positions but strategic sites like main roads, bridges and Beirut's international airport. 


Residential areas near Hezbollah positions have been hit in air strikes, the group said. 

Israel has warned residents by leaflet to stay away from Hezbollah locations. 

Israel's chief of staff, Dan Halutz, said the two captured Israeli soldiers were still alive. 

A third soldier, captured by Palestinian militants in the Gaza Strip where Israel is conducting a separate operation, is also still alive, he said. 

Calls for restraint 

In an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council, Lebanon called for an end to the Israeli operation. 


The offensive was destroying infrastructure and causing the death of innocent civilians in full view of the international community, said Nouhad Mahmoud, Lebanon's ambassador to the UN. 


Israeli views on the crisis with Lebanon


Israeli Ambassador Dan Gillerman said Israel had no choice but to react to Hezbollah's aggression, describing the group as "merely the finger on the bloodstained and long-reaching arms of Syria and Iran". 

The escalation has sparked international calls for restraint. 


French President Jacques Chirac said the Israeli air strikes were "completely disproportionate" and the Vatican described them as an attack on a sovereign and free nation. 

Mr Olmert said he would agree to a ceasefire if Hezbollah returned the two captured soldiers and stopped firing rockets at northern Israel, and Lebanon implemented UN Security Council resolution 1559, calling for the disarmament of the militant group. 

Hezbollah has said the captured soldiers will not be returned without a release deal for Palestinian, Lebanese and other Arab prisoners held in Israeli jails.


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## Armymatters (15 Jul 2006)

Sounds like another Arab-Israeli War brewing up... and you think the situation could get any worst than another Arab-Israeli War on top of the situation already present in the Middle East... 

Also, nice ship. Looks quite stealthy and sleek.


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## Cloud Cover (15 Jul 2006)

Missle hits civilian vessel 

JERUSALEM (Reuters) - A missile fired at an Israeli naval vessel off Lebanon hit a civilian boat, possibly from Egypt, the Israeli army said on Saturday.

A spokeswoman said those on board were believed to have been evacuated, adding it was unclear if there were any casualties.

After initially saying the missile had been fired at an Israeli vessel in a fresh strike early on Saturday, the spokeswoman later said it had been part of an attack late on Friday when an Israeli warship was badly damaged.

"At the same time as the incident took place in which an Israeli ship was hit, a merchant ship was also hit," the spokeswoman said.

Israeli media said the damaged missile ship was hit by an airborne drone packed with explosives.

Four Israeli troops were missing after the warship was hit in an attack claimed by Hizbollah, Al Jazeera television said, as violence escalated between Israel and the guerrilla group.



© Reuters 2006. All Rights Reserved.


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## Ex-Dragoon (15 Jul 2006)

Armymatters said:
			
		

> Sounds like another Arab-Israeli War brewing up... and you think the situation could get any worst than another Arab-Israeli War on top of the situation already present in the Middle East...
> 
> Also, nice ship. Looks quite stealthy and sleek.



And very top heavy to boot....


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## Cloud Cover (15 Jul 2006)

Shallow keeled as well. IIRC about 1500 tons full load.


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## Scoobie Newbie (15 Jul 2006)

Latest I heard from CNN the most Trusted Name In News was that it was a UAV packed with explosives.


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## cobbler (15 Jul 2006)

Armymatters said:
			
		

> Also, nice ship. Looks quite stealthy and sleek.



Obviously not nearly stealthy enough. Hezbollah are hardly on the cutting edge of military technology.


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## Scoobie Newbie (15 Jul 2006)

How hard is it to pilot a UAV into a ship during daylight that is most likely not at its top cruising speed?


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## Rory (15 Jul 2006)

Shouldn't the ship be able to defend from a UAV coming in towards it since they most definately know it is hostile?


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## cobbler (15 Jul 2006)

It would be interesting to know more details about what happened. But I doubt that will happen, certainly not as long as the violence and tension remain as they are.


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## xenobard (15 Jul 2006)

It is concerning that Hezbolla was able to damage the ship, but, apparently, they only have 7 or 8 of the drones.


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## Ex-Dragoon (15 Jul 2006)

> But that is history, and is not the topic of discussion here. From what it looks like, the radar should have picked up the drone, but I don't see no small gun mount, like a  Oerlikon autocannon or even a machine gun mount. I see that the specs state that the CIWS and the 3" gun are interchangeable, and cannot be carried at the same time. Perhaps the Israelis are now rethinking the problem (lack of a close in defense system when the 3" gun is fitted) this attack has shown



Have _you_ Armymatters ever used a radar? If you had then you would _know_ that picking a small target like a UAV is no guarantee. Stay in you lane!. Also the SAAR 5 class corvette is also fitted with Barak 1 SAMs and 25mm Sea Vulcans in addition to the interchangeable mounting of the 76mm/57mm and the Vulcan 20mm.

PM inbound!


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## tomahawk6 (15 Jul 2006)

The Israelis think the corvette was hit by an Iranian/Chinese C-802 Silkworm missile. The missile is very difficult to jam and the Barak system either didnt pick it up or missed it. The Israeli Navy is very vulnerable to this missile and may have to adjust their tactics.


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## SeaKingTacco (15 Jul 2006)

I'm calling BS on the C-802 claim.  As I recall, it is something like the size of Mig-17, requires extensive shore battery equipment and has a 1000lb warhead.  If the SAAR corvette took a hit from something that big, there would be nothing but a smoking hole in the water.  

Just my (semi) educated opinion.


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## tomahawk6 (15 Jul 2006)

Two missiles were launched at the Ahi Hanit one was aimed for a strike amidships  with a top down attack.The missile missed and exploded in the water. The second was rigged to skim the water and hit the helicopter deck.The explosion caused the ship to begin to burn the crew is credited with heroic damage control efforts which kept the ship from sinking.

I think the weapon is misnamed. The 802 is an upgraded 801 which is an exocet copy with a turbojet. If a silkworm had hit the corvette it would have sunk.


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## SeaKingTacco (15 Jul 2006)

> Two missiles were launched at the Ahi Hanit one was aimed for a strike amidships  with a top down attack.The missile missed and exploded in the water. The second was rigged to skim the water and hit the helicopter deck.The explosion caused the ship to begin to burn the crew is credited with heroic damage control efforts which kept the ship from sinking.



Very interesting... can you point me to a URL to do some reading of my own?  A top attack missile is not something one whips up in their basement.  If this is true, some government is directly arming Hezbollah...again in my semi educated humble opinion only...


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## GAP (15 Jul 2006)

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> Two missiles were launched at the Ahi Hanit one was aimed for a strike amidships  with a top down attack.The missile missed and exploded in the water. The second was rigged to skim the water and hit the helicopter deck.The explosion caused the ship to begin to burn the crew is credited with heroic damage control efforts which kept the ship from sinking.
> I think the weapon is misnamed. The 802 is an upgraded 801 which is an exocet copy with a turbojet. If a silkworm had hit the corvette it would have sunk.



I've gotten lost here. Was it confirmed that it was a missile (801-2 ? ) or was it a UAV that was crashed into the ship?
Question (with blank stare), how big of a UAV would be needed to damage that size of ship? Out of my lane, but that ship looks like it could take a lot of punishment and keep on  ticking.


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## Ex-Dragoon (15 Jul 2006)

It would depend on where they hit the ship and how much explosives were packed into the UAV. Another factor to consider would be what damage control consition the ship was in (for example how much of her water tight bulkheads were shut). Personally I have never exercised with the Israeli's so am not sure if they are lax in this or not.


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## CanadaPhil (15 Jul 2006)

Was that the ship that was in fact struck??

The coverage on television yesterday showed that the vessel just of the coast of Beirut which had been bombarding the Hezbollah offices  was a different class altogether.

It has an odd cofiguration with a phalanx close in system on the bow and a large 76mm Oto Melara cannon (as on our destroyers) on the stern. The stern cannon was the weapon being used to bombard the Hezbollah positions.

It looked like this vessel:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saar_4.5_class_missile_boat


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## Ex-Dragoon (15 Jul 2006)

Yes but the media has identified APCs as tanks in the past so I don't expect them to realized the difference between the SAAR 4.5 and the SAAR 5. If they release the name of the ship, then the class identity is easy.


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## Ex-Dragoon (15 Jul 2006)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saar_5_class_missile_boat

Geez Wilkpedia is fast. hull number#503 _Hanit_ was the ship apparently hit by a UAV.


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## CanadaPhil (15 Jul 2006)

Yes it looks like it was the Hanit.

CNN was making it look like the images they were showing were in fact the very ship that had been struck.


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## GAP (15 Jul 2006)

CanadaPhil said:
			
		

> Was that the ship that was in fact struck??
> It has an odd cofiguration with a phalanx close in system on the bow and a large 76mm Oto Melara cannon (as on our destroyers) on the stern. The stern cannon was the weapon being used to bombard the Hezbollah positions.



In Wikipedia I think it's the second line is 





> designed based on lessons learnt from the Sa'ar 4.5 class ships.



That was probably the second and LAST line the reporter read.


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## KevinB (15 Jul 2006)

Current buzz is that it was a Iranian Revolutionary Gurad unit using the missles...

Sorry no link


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## big bad john (15 Jul 2006)

Infidel-6 said:
			
		

> Current buzz is that it was a Iranian Revolutionary Gurad unit using the missles...
> 
> Sorry no link



Attributed to who, the buzz that is?


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## Retired AF Guy (15 Jul 2006)

SeaKingTacco said:
			
		

> Very interesting... can you point me to a URL to do some reading of my own?  A top attack missile is not something one whips up in their basement.  If this is true, some government is directly arming Hezbollah...again in my semi educated humble opinion only...



Well I was going to post something but I was having problems with the hyperlinks and in the mean time I was beaten to the punch   ;D The Jerusalem Post is saying that the Iranians are involved and that Hezbollah (with Iranian) helped used an anti-ship missile it hit the Israeli ship. JP is saying that the ship hit was about 10 years old and the newest ship in the Israeli navy. Checking out Globalsecurity would indicate that the Sa'ar 5 as being the best candidate. Some speculation is that the C-802 as the missile used, however, this a big missile over 21 feet in length. A better candidate would be the C-701 (Iranian designation Kosar) since its a lot smaller (slightly over eight feet. This link http://www.softwar.net/c801.html has info on the two missiles, which are both of Chinese manufacture.


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## GAP (15 Jul 2006)

Infidel-6 said:
			
		

> Current buzz is that it was a Iranian Revolutionary Gurad unit using the missles...
> Sorry no link



Iranian troops helped Hezbollah attack warship:Israeli intelligence
Associated Press - Globe & Mail 
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20060715.wisraeliship0715/BNStory/Front

JERUSALEM — A missile fired by Hezbollah, not an unmanned drone laden with explosives, damaged an Israeli warship off Lebanon, the army said Saturday. Elite Iranian troops helped fire the missile, a senior Israeli intelligence official said.

One sailor was killed and three were missing.

The intelligence official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the information, said about 100 Iranian soldiers are in Lebanon and helped fire the Iranian-made, radar-guided C-102 at the ship late Friday.

The official added that the troops involved in firing the missile are from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, an elite corps of more than 200,000 fighters that is independent of the regular armed forces and controlled directly by supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Initial information indicated the guerrillas had used a drone for the first time to attack Israeli forces. But the army's investigation showed that Hezbollah had fired an Iranian-made missile at the vessel from the shores of Lebanon, said Brig. Gen. Ido Nehushtan.
More on link


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## KevinB (15 Jul 2006)

Buzz being the rumour mill where I work...


 The IRG is a large part of Hezbollah - they started back in the Shaw's day and basically are organized to make insurgencies.


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## tomahawk6 (15 Jul 2006)

The C-802 is the export version of the PRC Ying Ji-82 .

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C-802

General characteristics
Engine	turbojet engine
Launch mass	715 kg
Length	6.392 m
Diameter	36 cm
Wingspan	1.22 m (unfolded); 0.72 m (folded)
Speed	Mach 0.9
Range	120 km
Flying altitude	20-30 m (flight); 5-7 m (attacking)
Warhead	165 kg time-delayed semi-armour-piercing high-explosive
Guidance	Inertial and terminal active radar
Launch platform	ground-based vehicles, naval ships, fixed-wing aircraft


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## tomahawk6 (15 Jul 2006)

Israel asked the US to buy JP-8 gas. They must be burning through their stocks.

http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?F=1953497&C=airwar


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## couchcommander (15 Jul 2006)

For all you airforce guys, can the Israeli airforce hit targets in Iran - it being 600ish km away? Or will the American's even let the Israeli planes over Iraq?

Also, did Iran ever backdown or do they still have troops building up along the Iran-Iraq border as was reported in May? Does anyone know if there is any activity on the Afghan border? 

...not looking good...


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## tomahawk6 (15 Jul 2006)

The Iranians would have real problems fighting a 2 front war,but they are content to let their proxies fight and die.


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## couchcommander (15 Jul 2006)

I was more thinking they wouldn't even think about attacking Iraq if they hadn't put some type of blocking force in place on the Afghan front. 

Thus, with the (unconfirmed) build up on the Iraq front, to my amateur eyes, the next signpost for trouble would be a force digging in along their Afghanistan frontier.


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## tomahawk6 (15 Jul 2006)

The Iranians are not in a strong position internally and starting something with us will see us stepping up support to the internal disadents not to mention we could take out their ability to export oil which hurts them in the pocket book.


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## couchcommander (15 Jul 2006)

No disagreeing it's a horrendously bad idea - but should we depend on their rationality for our safety? They *could* see this as the best opportunity they're going to get, however bad it really is.


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## JBP (15 Jul 2006)

Hmmm... I'm not all that knowledgable about middle-east politics and just started learning the basics after being on this website for about 2 years now... But ahhh..

Could this whole thing not blow up and we all might be marching with our helmets on soon over there? Or does this sort of thing happen on a grand scale often enough over there, like every 15-20 years... I'm 25 so this is news to me!  ???

Made me think enough ahead to pack my rucksack and check my kitbags!


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## Kirkhill (15 Jul 2006)

As I was saying in my moved post - sorry all of these threads are inter-twined - it looks to my that Tehran may have been wrong-footed by a "War of Jenkin's Ear - Britain Vs Spain 1739" scenario.  

The capture of a couple of Israeli soldiers might, in other circumstances, have been greated with diplomatic protests or a commando raid, maybe a strike but at this time it may serve a number of interests for outrage to be given free rein.   Hizbollah declaring war and sinking the corvette may not necessarily be the brightest thing they have ever done, unless they know something we don't.  It would seem to give the Israelis pretext to treat this as an act of war and employ the full resources of their state against Hizbollah acting as a defacto state.

Did Tehran orchestrate this or has Hizbollah overplayed their hand?


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## CanadaPhil (15 Jul 2006)

couchcommander said:
			
		

> For all you airforce guys, can the Israeli airforce hit targets in Iran - it being 600ish km away? Or will the American's even let the Israeli planes over Iraq?



Having permission has never stopped the Israeli's in the past. They have shown that they have the means and the balls so to speak in undertaking very high risk missions.

Eg. 1976 Commando Raid on Entebbe, Uganda to free Israeli's air passengers taken hostage
1981 Strike by F16's and F15's on Iraq's new nuclear reactor
1985 Strike on PLO headquarters in Tunisa (over 2,000km mission!)


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## Red 6 (15 Jul 2006)

CNN is reporting right now (Saturday afternoon) that the Israeli Air Force is hitting bridges and rail junctions in southern Lebanon and Hamas and Hizbollah HQ facilities in downtown Beirut. How far do ya'll think this is going to unfold?


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## Red 6 (15 Jul 2006)

CNN is reporting today (Saturday afternoon) that the Israeli Air Force has knocked out some kind of coastal Lebanese military radar base, with some speculation that it may have been involved with the ship strike.


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## tomahawk6 (15 Jul 2006)

Stratfor article. Stratfor predicts a major ground operation to begin Sun-Mon timeframe. I agree with their analysis and feel next week will see a war that will not be limited to Lebanon and could see Iran's nuclear facilities struck in response to Iranian aggression.

Red Alert: Getting Ready

We are now in the period preceding major conventional operations. Israel is in the process of sealing the Lebanese coast. They have disrupted Lebanese telecommunications, although they have not completely collapsed the structure. Israeli aircraft are attacking Hezbollah's infrastructure and road system. In the meantime, Hezbollah, aware it is going to be hit hard, is in a use-it or-lose-it scenario, firing what projectiles it can into Israel.

The Israeli strategy appears to be designed to do two things. First, the Israelis are trying to prevent any supplies from entering Lebanon, including reinforcements. That is why they are attacking all coastal maritime facilities. Second, they are degrading the roads in Lebanon. That will keep reinforcements from reaching Hezbollah fighters engaged in the south. As important, it will prevent the withdrawal and redeployment of heavy equipment deployed by Hezbollah in the south, particularly their rockets, missiles and launchers. The Israelis are preparing the battlefield to prevent a Hezbollah retreat or maneuver.

Hezbollah's strategy has been imposed on it. It seems committed to standing and fighting. The rate of fire they are maintaining into Israel is clearly based on an expectation that Israel will be attacking. The rocketry guarantees the Israelis will attack. Hezbollah has been reported to have anti-tank and anti-air weapons. The Israelis will use airmobile tactics to surround and isolate Hezbollah concentrations, but in the end, they will have to go in, engage and defeat Hezbollah tactically. Hezbollah obviously knows this, but there is no sign of disintegration on its part. At the very least, Hezbollah is projecting an appetite for combat. Sources in Beirut, who have been reliable to this point, say Hezbollah has weapons that have not yet been seen, such as anti-aircraft missiles, and that these will be used shortly. Whatever the truth of this, Hezbollah does not seem to think its situation is hopeless.

The uncertain question is Syria. No matter how effectively Israel seals the Lebanese coast, so long as the Syrian frontier is open, Hezbollah might get supplies from there, and might be able to retreat there. So far, there has been only one reported airstrike on a Syrian target. Both Israel and Syria were quick to deny this. 

What is interesting is that it was the Syrians who insisted very publicly that no such attack took place. The Syrians are clearly trying to avoid a situation in which they are locked into a confrontation with Israel. Israel might well think this is the time to have it out with Syria as well, but Syria is trying very hard not to give Israel casus belli. In addition, Syria is facilitating the movement of Westerners out of Lebanon, allowing them free transit. They are trying to signal that they are being cooperative and nonaggressive.

The problem is this: While Syria does not want to get hit and will not make overt moves, so long as the Syrians cannot guarantee supplies will not reach Hezbollah or that Hezbollah won't be given sanctuary in Syria, Israel cannot complete its mission of shattering Hezbollah and withdrawing. They could be drawn into an Iraq-like situation that they absolutely don't want. Israel is torn. On the one hand, it wants to crush Hezbollah, and that requires total isolation. On the other hand, it does not want the Syrian regime to fall. What comes after would be much worse from Israel's point of view. 

This is the inherent problem built into Israel's strategy, and what gives Hezbollah some hope. If Israel does not attack Syria, Hezbollah could well survive Israel's attack by moving across the border. No matter how many roads are destroyed, Israel won't be able to prevent major Hezbollah formations moving across the border. If they do attack Syria and crush al Assad's government, Hezbollah could come out of this stronger than ever. 

Judging from the airstrikes in the past 24 hours, it would appear Israel is trying to solve the problem tactically, by degrading Lebanese transport facilities. That could increase the effectiveness of the strategy, but in the end cannot be sufficient. We continue to think Israel will choose not to attack Syria directly and therefore, while the invasion will buy time, it will not solve the problem. Hezbollah certainly expects to be badly hurt, but it does not seem to expect to be completely annihilated. We are guessing, but our guess is that they are reading Israel's views on Syria and are betting that, in the long run, they will come out stronger. Of course, Israel knows this and therefore may have a different plan for Syria. At any rate, this is the great unknown in this campaign.

The other unknown is the withdrawal of Western nationals from Lebanon. We have received very reliable reports from sources in Lebanon who assure us Hezbollah does not intend to renew hostage taking, which is deemed an old and nonproductive strategy. These same sources have reported splits in Hezbollah over how aggressive it should be. We believe Hezbollah has no current plans for hostage taking. We are not convinced, however, that in the course of the battle it will not change its mind, or that with weakened central control elements, elements of Hezbollah will take hostages as a bargaining chip. Regardless of what Hezbollah is saying now, hostage taking must be taken seriously as a possibility.

The U.S. Embassy in Beirut is now saying plans are being developed in concert with the U.S. Defense Department for extracting U.S. nationals from Lebanon. A convoy scheduled to travel from the American University of Beirut to Amman, Jordan, via Syria, was cancelled at the last moment, with participants being told that the embassy has other plans. 

There are said to be 25,000 U.S. citizens in Lebanon, but many of these are Lebanese-American dual nationals who actually live in Lebanon as Lebanese. These are less visible, less at risk and have greater resources for survival. The most at-risk Americans are those who hold only U.S. papers and are clearly American, such as employees of American companies, students studying at Lebanese universities and tourists. There is no clear count of these high-risk nationals, nor is there a count on high-risk nationals from other non-Islamic countries. There are thousands, however, and getting them out will be difficult.

The U.S. Embassy is considering flying them to Cyprus. That would mean an air bridge from Beirut International Airport, where a single runway has been opened, to Cyprus, a short flight away. The United States will not do this while Beirut is under attack, so it will ask the Israelis to create a safe zone and air corridor during the evacuation. But the threat on the ground is real, and we suspect the United States will send troops in to secure the perimeter and surrounding areas against shoulder-launched missiles. They will also keep the precise timing secret, although thousands of people in Lebanon -- the evacuees -- will know it is coming.

There was a Marine Expeditionary Force on maneuvers in the Red Sea a few days ago. We do not know where they are now, but they had 2,200 marines on board -- the right number to secure extraction. We suspect aircraft will be chartered from airlines in the region and that some U.S. Air Force and allied aircraft might also be used. Doubtless, the United States is busy organizing it. Given that the United States cancelled several ad hoc withdrawals, it must be highly confident it has the process nailed; we would expect this operation to get going sometime Sunday. Assuming aircraft that can carry any average of 200 people (purely arbitrary), 50-100 flights could get everyone out. Assuming that everyone can be notified and can get to Beirut International Airport. That won't happen. The remainder who are at risk will probably be advised to move into Christian areas east and northeast of Beirut and to keep their heads down for the duration. It is also possible that discussion of Cyprus notwithstanding, the path will be through Syria, but we doubt that. 

In the meantime, that Israel has not sent major ground units into Lebanon yet (lots of small units are operating there) but is taking rocket attacks and hunkering down indicates it does not plan to act piecemeal. If we were to guess, the main thrust would likely begin late Sunday night or Monday morning. They will be ready by then. Of course we are not privy to Israeli operations, so it could be delayed 24-48 hours to give forces a chance to gear up. But given the Hezbollah bombardment, the Israelis are under pressure to move sooner rather than later. 

We are in a relatively quiet spell (emphasis on quiet). Both sides have made their strategic decisions. Both know how the war will be fought. Hezbollah thinks it can give as good as it will get for a while, and will ultimately be able to regroup for a guerrilla war against the Israelis. Israel thinks it can immobilize and crush Hezbollah quickly and decisively and will be able to withdraw. Both sides know Syria is the wild card, and neither is quite sure how it will play its hand. One side is wrong in its expectations about the outcome. That's the nature of war.


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## tamouh (16 Jul 2006)

> Stratfor article. Stratfor predicts a major ground operation to begin Sun-Mon timeframe. I agree with their analysis and feel next week will see a war that will not be limited to Lebanon and could see Iran's nuclear facilities struck in response to Iranian aggression.



I agree with that analysis too that Israel is planning for an all out invasion. However, I doubt they'll attempt to ignite a full scale war with Syria. But mostlikely Hezballah will try to push the Israelis in that direction.

There is little chance of saving the region from war by now.


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## couchcommander (16 Jul 2006)

This has been mentioned on another thread, but they've hit Tripoli as well (Lebanon, not Libya). 

http://english.people.com.cn/200607/16/eng20060716_283556.html



> Israeli warplanes bombarded the northern Lebanese port city of Tripoli, witnesses reported.
> 
> There is no immediate word on any casualties and damages in the country's second-largest city.
> 
> Source: Xinhua


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## couchcommander (16 Jul 2006)

More news on this front, sorry if it's posted elsewhere.

Reuters on the continuing bombardment: http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/newsarticle.aspx?type=topNews&storyid=2006-07-16T041742Z_01_L104489_RTRUKOC_0_UK-MIDEAST.xml&src=rss



> The air strikes, which killed 35 civilians on Saturday, including 15 children, were meant to cripple Hizbollah and force Lebanon to try stopping the guerrilla group from firing rockets into Israel's northern border, where measures just short of a state of emergency have been ordered.
> 
> The bombing of Lebanese roads, bridges, ports and airports, as well as Hizbollah targets, is Israel's most destructive onslaught since a 1982 invasion to expel Palestinian forces.



RN sending aircraft carrier and assualt ship to region: http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/newsarticle.aspx?type=topNews&storyid=2006-07-15T221053Z_01_L156461_RTRUKOC_0_UK-MIDEAST-BRITAIN.xml&src=rss



> LONDON (Reuters) -Two Royal Navy ships are being sent to the Middle East amid contingency planning for a possible evacuation of British nationals from Lebanon.
> 
> The Ministry of Defence said on Saturday the aircraft carrier HMS Illustrious and the assault ship HMS Bulwark were being sent to the region as the conflict escalates.


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## Blue Max (16 Jul 2006)

Here is an analysis from Debka, which due to the geography of this unfortunate conflict can be taken as a pretty good source.

*Hizballah Brings out Iranian Silkworm to Hit Israel Navy Corvette*
DEBKAfile Exclusive Military Analysis
July 15, 2006, 1:37 PM (GMT+02:00)
http://www.debka.com/article.php?aid=1184

The disaster that overtook one of the Israeli Navy’s state of the art warships, Ahi-Hanit, was thoroughly planned in advance by an enemy which managed to take Israel’s military commanders by surprise. It has shocked Israel’s military to a degree comparable to the profound effect on US forces of al Qaeda’s 2000 attack on the USS Cole in Aden. 

The Saar-5 class corvette, with a crew of 61 seamen and a 10-man helicopter crew, was hit Friday, July 17 at 20:15 hours, while shelling Beirut international airport. Four crewmen were reported missing. One was found dead Saturday aboard the crippled ship. He is First Sgt Tal Amgar, 21, from Ashdod. The search continues for three missing crewmen, Sgt. Yaniv Hershkovitch, 21, from Haifa, Corp. Shai Atias, 19, from Rishon Lezion and Master Sgt. Dov Shternschuss, 37, from Carmiel. 
DEBKAfile’s military sources reveal: The Israeli Saar-5 corvette Ahi-Hanita was 

DEBKAfile’s military sources reveal that the warship was struck from Beirut by an Iran-made radar-guided C-802 shore-to-sea missile of the Silkworm family. Weighing 715 kilos, with a range of 120km, the missile is armed with a strong anti-jamming capability, which lends it a 98% success rate in escaping interception. 

The Israeli ship is armed with an advanced Barak anti-missile system, which may have missed the incoming missile. Israeli military planners must now look at the vulnerability of the navy following the appearance of the first Iranian C-802 missiles 
The Israeli chief of staff, Lt.Gen. Dan Halutz, started his news conference Friday night just 15 minutes earlier at 20:00. The campaign was then 60 hours old from the moment Hizballah raiders captured two Israel soldiers in an ambush inside Israel. He was poised, assured and clear, until a reporter asked if the military goals of the Lebanese offensive matched the objectives set out in government decisions. His answer was: “Don’t start looking for cracks.” 

But Hizballah found the cracks 15 minutes later. Its secretary general Hassan Nasrallah put in a telephone appearance on Al Manar TV straight after General Halutz to inform his listeners across the Middle East that one of Israel’s warships was ablaze at that very moment. He said the ship had been crippled while it was bombing Beirut and was sinking. Hizballah, he added, had prepared a number of surprises for Israel and its armed forces Despite several Israeli air raids, the station is still broadcasting. 

In Israel, the Hizballah chief’s words were taken at first as an implausible threat for the future – until the order of events began to unfold. 

DEBKAfile’s military sources reveal: 
Shortly before 20:00 hours Friday, Hizballah launched a pair of land-to-sea C-802 missiles against the Israeli ship from the coast of Beirut. The trajectory of the first was adjusted to a landing amidships from above. It missed and exploded in the water. The second was rigged to skim the water like a cruise missile. It achieved a direct hit of the Ahi Hanit’s helicopter deck, starting a fire. The ship began to sink, as Nasrallah said, and would have been lost were it not for the speed and bravery of crewmen who jumped into the flames and doused them before the ship exploded and sank. 

It is not known whether the men dead and missing paid with their lives for saving the ship. 
This was the second time in 48 hours that the Israeli high command was taken by unawares. 

July 12, the day that Hizballah kidnapped two Israeli soldiers, was also the deadline for Iran to deliver its answer to the six-power package of incentives for giving up its nuclear enrichment program. Tehran let the day go by without an answer. Someone should have kept an eye on Iran’s Lebanese surrogate and made the connection with a fresh virulent threat against Israel from Iran’s president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. However, the high alert declared earlier this month for Israeli units on the Lebanese border was not restored. 

The Hizballah guerrillas took advantage of this lack of vigilance to infiltrate Israel near Zarit, penetrate to a distance of 200 meters, fire RPGs and roadside bombs at two Israeli Hammer jeeps on patrol, and make off with Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev. Eight Israeli soldiers lost their lives as a result of this attack. 

The IDF ground pursuit for the two men was cut short when an Israeli tank was blown up by a massive 300-kilo bomb in south Lebanon, killing the four-man crew and a fifth soldier who tried to rescue his comrades. 
The attack on the Ahi-Hanit was the third surprise. 

When General Halutz was asked if Israel does not fear Syrian and Iranian intervention in the hostilities, he replied firmly in the negative. But Iran has been involved from the very first moment. 

This localized perception of the Just Reward campaign in Lebanon, contrary to Israeli leaders’ rhetoric, is hampering its effectiveness. The war embarked on Wednesday night, July 12, must be seen in its regional strategic dimensions. It is therefore not enough to bash Nasrallah without taking into account beforehand that his strings are pulled by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Ahmadinejad from Tehran and the Syrian president Bashar Assad, who opened up Damascus military airport for the delivery of Iranian missiles to his militia. 

Saturday morning, Hizballah TV broadcast a videotape showed a blurred object looking like a small unmanned aircraft purportedly packed with explosives exploding in the water. This was an attempt to muddy the trail leading to Tehran and present the fatal attack as an extraordinary feat of arms by Hizballah. It was also another move in and intense psychological war to undermine Israeli morale. The inference they are trying to get across is that if the Shiite terrorists have a weapon that can hit a moving target at sea, the will not find it hard to reach any part of Israel including Tel Aviv.


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## couchcommander (16 Jul 2006)

As far as I know, the "silkworm" and the C-802 are rather different weapon systems...

*edit*

Yup, another case of Bison MBT's

Silkworm:





C-802:


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## Michael OLeary (16 Jul 2006)

couchcommander said:
			
		

> As far as I know, the "silkworm" and the C-802 are rather different weapon systems...



Hizballah Brings out Iranian Silkworm to Hit Israel Navy Corvette
http://www.debka.com/article.php?aid=1184



> DEBKAfile’s military sources reveal that the warship was struck from Beirut by an Iran-made radar-guided C-802 shore-to-sea missile of the Silkworm family. Weighing 715 kilos, with a range of 120km, the missile is armed with a strong anti-jamming capability, which lends it a 98% success rate in escaping interception.


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## couchcommander (16 Jul 2006)

Yea indeed that was what I was posting about. The Silkworm is based off of the Russian SSN-2, which is a behemoth of a 3000kg, early 50's technology missile.

globalsecurity tells me that the C-802 is fairly recently developed and weighs about 715kg....

This is important because the SSN-2 would be largely ineffective and I'd classify it more as a fluke that it was able to hit the vessel, not to mention seriously question the Barak system. The missiles were almost completely ineffective by the 70's. 

The C-802, is a different story, so it's important to distinguish which one it is. Other reports are going with C-802 SACCADE. 

So, as I said, once again attack of the Bison MBT's.


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## big bad john (16 Jul 2006)

In among this story the following news:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/5184428.stm

The Israeli military recovers the bodies of three sailors missing after their ship was hit by a Hezbollah missile on Friday, bringing the number of Israeli troops killed in the Lebanon offensive to 12


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## big bad john (16 Jul 2006)

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/5184974.stm

Israel's Hezbollah headache  
By Jonathan Marcus 
BBC diplomatic correspondent  


The confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah is clearly unbalanced. Israel is a significant military power with sophisticated land, sea and air forces at its disposal. 

Hezbollah rocket attacks on Israel have multiplied 

Hezbollah began as a guerrilla force but over the years it has evolved a complex military infrastructure. Nonetheless it has few of the types of weapons available to the Israelis. Its only long-range punch comes from an assorted arsenal of missiles. 

Most of these are relatively short-range systems, generically known as Katyushas, capable of striking targets out to about 25km (16 miles). 

But the Hezbollah missile strikes on Israel's northern port city of Haifa demonstrate that it also has an unknown quantity of longer-range systems in its arsenal. 

Most of these are Iranian-manufactured systems like the Fajr-3, with a 45-km range; the Fajr-5, with a range of some 75km; and the more potent Zelzal-2 with a range of up to 200km. 

This would bring much of Tel Aviv - Israel's largest population centre - within range. 

None of these are guided or accurate systems but if the target is an urban area, accuracy is not needed. 

In addition, as the successful attack on an Israeli naval vessel demonstrates (an Egyptian freighter was also hit and abandoned by its crew), Hezbollah also has relatively sophisticated Iranian-supplied anti-shipping missiles at its disposal. 

Air war limitations 

This missile build-up has worried the Israeli military for some time. 


Israeli strategists know an air war has its limits 

No surprise then that Israeli leaders have taken the opportunity of the Hezbollah raid which captured two of their men, to set about the full-scale weakening of Hezbollah's infrastructure. 

Headquarters, television stations, and missile storage bunkers have all been hit. 

But the Israelis have also sought to blockade Lebanon - closing Beirut's airport, striking the Beirut-Damascus highway, and hitting various key transport links, especially bridges. 

The Israelis explain all this by saying that they are acting to prevent Hezbollah bringing in or moving up additional missiles to the border. Inevitably, such attacks, however precise, cause civilian casualties. 

Israel's long-term goals are obvious. It wants to end the cross-border missile threat to its towns and cities by applying a blunt lesson in deterrence. 

It would like to see Hezbollah disarm and the Lebanese Army extend its control down to the international frontier. That is what UN Security Council Resolution 1559, of 2004, also demands - but it is hard to see how it can be enacted. 

Israel's tactics are to some extent puzzling. The bludgeoning of Lebanon's transport infrastructure will hinder, but will probably not stop, missile movements. 

Indeed, Hezbollah has shown remarkable resilience, and the rockets are still flying across Israel's northern border. It is very hard to deliver a body blow to Hezbollah from the air. 

So is this all a prelude to some significant Israeli incursion on the ground? 

On the face of things Israel has not yet mobilised sufficient troops for such an operation. And a comprehensive assault on Hezbollah would require a move into the strategically important Bekaa Valley, a step that would send alarm bells ringing in Syria, risking an even wider confrontation. 

Dangers of complacency 

Israel's own military performance raises several questions. 


A deadly missile attack on one of its warships shocked Israel  

Even Israeli commentators have pointed to the fact that the capture of Israeli soldiers, first by Palestinian militants and now Hezbollah, shows clear signs of laxness and a lack of vigilance on the part of the reserve units involved. 

Hezbollah has clearly signalled its desire to carry out such operations and it has attempted similar things in the past. Has reserve training been reduced too far? Has a certain complacency set in? 

The attack on the Israeli missile boat - one of its most sophisticated warships, a Saar-5 class corvette - also raises many questions. 

It was hit by a Chinese-made, radar-guided C-802 missile. 

Did Israeli intelligence not know that these anti-shipping missiles had been given to Hezbollah by Iran? 

Israel's naval electronics and defensive systems are among the best in the world, defensive systems intended to counter just such a threat. Some reports suggest that they were not even operating on board the vessel that was hit. 

Proportionality 

But most of all there is the question of the new Israeli government's relationship with the military. 

Much has been made of the limited military experience of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Defence Minister Amir Peretz. 

Mr Olmert is in a tight spot. He has to act to protect Israel's citizens. But ask a general what action can be taken in response to a threat and he will generally supply a long list of targets. 

Israel seems to be working through just such a list. But the real strategic calculation is to weigh up military advantage against wider political and diplomatic considerations. 

Has Israel got the balance right? 

Clearly there are many views. But the overwhelming international consensus - not least from the G8 summit in St Petersburg - is that disproportionate military force has been used. 

President George W Bush - who has strongly backed Israeli action - nonetheless put this point rather neatly. 

"Defend yourself," he said, "but be mindful of the consequences."


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## tomahawk6 (16 Jul 2006)

IDF mobilizes reserve division. The Syrians are mobilizing as well.

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?apage=1&cid=1150886004129&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull


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## paracowboy (16 Jul 2006)

debka? Why not quote the Weekly World News?


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## tamouh (16 Jul 2006)

> The inference they are trying to get across is that if the Shiite terrorists have a weapon that can hit a moving target at sea, the will not find it hard to reach any part of Israel including Tel Aviv



According to x-lebanese army general Yassein Suwayed , Hezbollah possess a variant of Shahab-3 (Zelzal-1) Iranian missiles which has a range of 150-200km and can hit Tel Aviv. He also mentioned that Hezbollah has between 5,000-15,000 rockets, but most are classical 20-50km range (Fajir-1/2).


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## Trinity (16 Jul 2006)

big bad john said:
			
		

> http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/5184974.stm
> 
> Israel seems to be working through just such a list. But the real strategic calculation is to weigh up military advantage against wider political and diplomatic considerations.
> 
> Has Israel got the balance right?



Good Risk Management says....

Israel has had so many plans and variants for this over the years.

I would think they know exactly what, who, where and... um.. WHAT they are doing.  

They know Syria would mobilize and they're not afraid of it.  They have to be pretty confident to
have done what they have.  If Israel fails.. it could result in there being NO Israel at all, thus, I really
think they've thought this through.


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## couchcommander (16 Jul 2006)

Iran is playing all of this very cool.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/I/IRAN_NUCLEAR?SITE=ORROS&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT



> TEHRAN, Iran (AP) -- Iran said Sunday that Western incentives to halt its nuclear program were an "acceptable basis" for talks, and it is ready for detailed negotiations...
> 
> ...Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Asefi told reporters in Tehran that, "We consider this package an appropriate basis, an acceptable basis (for talks)."
> 
> "Now is an appropriate opportunity for Iran and Europe to enter detailed negotiations," he said. "Sending the dossier to the U.N. Security Council means blocking and rejecting talks."



The entire article is well done, give it a read. 

They must realize the thin leash they are on and the consequences of any actions on their part. They are consequently trying to milk the situation for their benefit.


----------



## The Bread Guy (17 Jul 2006)

Brace yourselves - someone suggesting that the BAD guys should be held accountable by the UN  

http://www.tribstar.com/news/feeds/apcontent/apstories/apstorysection/D8ITM3NO2.xml.txt/resources_apstoryview

British Prime Minister Tony Blair and U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan called Monday for the deployment of international forces to stop Hezbollah from bombing Israel, an issue that has overshadowed the summit of world leaders.

President Bush, not realizing his remarks were being picked up by a microphone, bluntly expressed his frustration with the actions of Hezbollah, a militant Islamic group believed backed by Iran and Syria that is engaged in escalating warfare with Israel.

"See, the irony is what they really need to do is to get Syria to get Hezbollah to stop doing this (expletive)," Bush told Blair in a discussion before the Group of Eight leaders began their lunch . . . .


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## tomahawk6 (17 Jul 2006)

IGF ground forces now in southern Lebanon. Its the only way to stop the rocket attacks and to root out Hezbollah.

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1150886020269&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull


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## CanadaPhil (17 Jul 2006)

I'm not sure what is up, but an Arabic news channel, Al Alam is repeatedly showing what appears to be a shootdown of an aircraft in Southern Lebanon.

CNN earlier this morning briefly reported that Hezbollah is claiming to have shot down an Israeli aircraft, but Israel is stating that NO aircraft have been lost. 

However, Al Alam has been continually showing what appears to be an aircraft falling from the sky and crashing into some buildings. It does not appear to be Beirut but a smaller southern town. The live video was caught by a Arabic news team shooting from a hill a short distance away.

I cant get an accurate translation of the reporters but the video shows a slender white spiralling smoke trail rising up from the ground (probably a shoulder fired SAM) and striking something at quite a low altitude. Moments later something plummets to the ground in flames while out of control. It does appear to be an aircraft from what I saw.

This just may be total misinformation but it looks real enough. 

Does anyone know anything about this??


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## LeonTheNeon (17 Jul 2006)

Sounds like it might just be a leaflet container.

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/news.php3?id=107606



> Various media reports identified the object as a “type of balloon”, according to Lebanese sources, a “leaflet container” according to the IDF or a “surface to air missile”, according to Hizbullah.
> 
> The IAF spokesman added that the leaflet container was hit by a surface-to-air missile fired by Hizbulla and that the container accidentally scored a direct hit on a truck carrying a Katyusha launcher. He added that it appeared that one of the missiles bounced out of truck as a result of the impact and was launched in the direction of Beirut.


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## CanadaPhil (17 Jul 2006)

Just as an FYI, in case some of you are wondering where the hell I saw this channel, over 3 dozen Arabic and Farsi (Iranian) channels are available to North America totally FREE. 

The satellite known as Intelsat Americas 5 (formerly Telstar 5) is located at 97 degrees West Longitude. There are about 100 international TV channels and many radio channels on this bird. In addition to the Arabic and Iranian stuff, there are many Chinese, Thai, Laotian, Turkish, Polish, Romanian, African, etc., etc.. Reception requires a 30" Dish at minimum with a universal type LNB and a DVB satellite receiver. This stuff would cost about $200 not including a pro install. Installation is not easy like Expressvu type installs and can be VERY tricky.

Check out this link for channel listing. Scroll down to the transponders that begin at 11,000. Everything noted  in a light yellow colour is Free in the Clear with the right gear noted above.

http://www.lyngsat.com/ia5.html

This has NOTHING to do with satellite hacking. Reception of this satellite is perfectly legal. I will not respond to questions about getting this. If you are interested, call a satellite installer familiar with this programming in your area.


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## tomahawk6 (23 Jul 2006)

Good article about the current situation in Lebanon and Iran's grand plan to dominate the region through its proxy Hizbollah.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2092-2281184_1,00.html


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## a_majoor (24 Jul 2006)

More on the reach and methods of Hezbollah

http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=OWJmNDJiODlkMmI5MjkzNmJiZDJhZGI0MDA4YmNkNTE= 



> *Terror in Buenos Aires*
> A lesson in Hezbollah terror.
> 
> By Aaron Mannes
> ...


----------



## tomahawk6 (25 Jul 2006)

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=JPost/JPArticle/ShowFull&cid=1153291993055

Interesting revelations about captured Iranian surveillance equipment and other material.


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## tomahawk6 (25 Jul 2006)

Deja vu.

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1153291996766&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

The IDF Intelligence Branch had comprehensive dossiers on the Hizbullah positions in the border village of Maroun a-Ras and in other villages in southern Lebanon, but in many cases this information wasn't passed on to the field commanders in time for the ground fighting over the last week. 

A number of battalions and brigades complained over the last few days that they hadn't received sufficient intelligence before their soldiers engaged with Hizbullah fighters. The forces were surprised at the extent of the Hizbullah fortifications and had to improvise methods of dealing with them, including blowing up bunkers with the Hizbullah inside. A senior IDF commander said on Tuesday that he didn't "know why the commanders weren't given the dossiers on time." 

Military Intelligence had prepared the dossiers over the last few years on the 170 towns and villages that serve as Hizbullah strongholds throughout southern Lebanon. The dossiers include details and maps on the number of fighters, their firing positions, fortifications and underground bunkers and quantities of armaments. The Hizbullah strategy since the IDF withdrew in 2000 was to concentrate arms and fighters in the south to counter an IDF attack, and their defense structure is based on fighting from within the villages. To prepare the IDF's combat units for such a scenario, a mock-up version of such a village was set up at the Northern Command's training base in Elyakim, but not all the combat units had time to train there due to their duties in the West Bank and around the Gaza Strip. The IDF also developed a virtual version of a Hizbullah village to train the units. 

The IDF commander said that due to the sensitivity of the intelligence sources used to make the dossiers, they were withheld from the units themselves and were shown only to the intelligence officers at the divisional level and a few at the brigade level. None of the battalion intelligence officers who are supposed to prepare the units before combat saw the dossiers. The commander wasn't willing to say whose responsibility it was to make sure that the relevant information was brought to the attention of the commanders in the field, only saying that "It's a part of the meeting between intelligence and operations and the abbreviated preparations for battle in an operation of this kind." 

Senior intelligence sources stressed on Tuesday that so far, the battle has been going on exactly as they predicted, and Hizbullah is operating according to the plans that they knew in advance. The source said that so far, Hizbullah had lost "many dozens of fighters, and probably more than that." 

According to the IDF's estimations, more than 120 rocket launchers of various sizes have been hit by the air attacks. Despite reports in the media, the IDF has not taken any Hizbullah fighters prisoners, the main reason being that, unlike Palestinian terrorists who usually give themselves up quickly, the Hizbullah fight to the death. 

Despite not having succeeded in eliminating Hizbullah chief Hassan Nasrallah in an air-raid last week, Nasrallah has admitted to his members that "Hizbullah has been hit hard," that "there is low morale and we need encouragement" and that "we are on our own now." 

Despite the IDF bombings, Syria is continuing to ship arms, mainly rockets, to Hizbullah, using smugglers' routes after the air force bombed the roads connecting Syria and Lebanon. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards are encouraging Syria to ship the arms and have been active in helping Hizbullah. According to the intelligence, Iranian officers were directly involved in shooting the missiles that hit INS Hanit killing four sailors a week and a half ago. 

Also despite the operation, Hizbullah's 1800 unit, which has Palestinian agents in the West Bank, is still active in financing terror operations.


----------



## Scoobie Newbie (25 Jul 2006)

Could you explain the Deja Vu part?
Every army makes mistakes even good ones.


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## tomahawk6 (25 Jul 2006)

The US Army has had similar type of intel issues in the sand box. We collect so much information and sometimes it just doesnt get to the troops who need it. We are doing better but its still a problem.


----------



## Sapper Bloggins (27 Jul 2006)

Hezbollah is formenting violence and fanning the flames of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Its bloody track record makes it a natural target in the war on terror, but the USA's only option is to confront Hezbollah indirectly: by getting its backers, Syria and Iran, to help change its focus from militancy to politics.

In my opinion, any war on terror must target Hezbollah and that military action be considered against the movement's state sponsors, Syria and Iran.
Given the organization's record of bloodshed and hostility, the question is not whether Hezbollah should be stopped; it is how. A campaign against it similar to the US effort against al Qaeda -- killing the group's leaders and ending its haven in Lebanon -- would probably fail and might even backfire. Syria and Iran openly support it, and much of the Arab world regards it as heroic, for its successful resistance against the Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon( might add, the only time that Arab arms have forced Israel to surrender territory ), and legitimate, because of its participation in Lebanese politics. Its no secret that western officials have acknowledged the value of its social and political projects.

The upshot is that although Washington should indeed confront Hezbollah, it should do so indirectly. However morally justified an all-out attack would be, reducing Hezbollah's terrorist activity requires avoiding the temptation to overreach. Instead, our friends to the south must apply pressure through Syria and Iran. Only Damascus has the necessary intel assets and force on the ground in Lebanon to shut down Hezbollah's militant activities.
Pressure on Iran, meanwhile, would help cut off hezbollah's global network and might persuade it to focus on Lebanese politics rather than anti-Western violence.
With skill, Washington can transform Hezbollah into just one more Lebanese political faction -- one that continues to be hostile but no longer poses a major threat to the US, its neighbors, and its interests.

At home, Hezbollah is as much a social and political organization as it is a terrorist or guerrilla movement; abroad, its violence serves the interests of Tehran and Damascus, both of which helped create it and still actively back it. It is embedded in Lebanese politics and society and, unlike al Qaeda, is a stakeholder in the existing regional order, not a force bent on destroying it. This position has made Hezbollah stronger but has also forced it to become more cautious, cunning, and subtle.
Iran and Syria use Hezbollah operations to further their foreign policy objectives, but their close ties to the group make them responsible for its trespasses.When Tehran and Damascus feel threatened by the possibility of retaliation, they do not hesitate to rein Hezbollah in.

If the West can successfully defuse Hezbollah's militant activity, the organization might well move more squarely into the political arena. Such a shift would set off a cycle, as Hezbollah's continuing political success would depend on its ability to bring stability and prosperity to its Lebanese constituents instead of on its violent efforts against Israel and the US. Hezbollah would remain a force in Lebanon, but it would no longer be a "terrorist group of global reach." Given the moral rhetoric of the war on terror and Hezbollah's bloody history, this outcome may not be entirely satisfying -- but appears to be the only realistic option available.


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## exsemjingo (27 Jul 2006)

I only wish this was possible.  Unfortunately, no one wanted to work with the Americans at the G8.  We of course stood by them, with Harper taking an firmer stance than they did on Israel's right to defend itself, but that is not enough support for what you advocate.
Taking the war directly to Iran and Syria may not be the easiest course of action, but it definitely should have been on the table.  Russia, along with other members of the G8, remained critical of Israel only to vex the Americans.  They did not even look at the situation in the middle east; they anticipated the American reaction and took a critical stance accordingly.
Israel will have to settle for attacking Hezbollah in Lebanon, since there is too much division in NATO for American support.  It is enough to make Presidents curse and Jr.Members change their signatures, since the real enemies are Syria and Iran.


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## joaquim (27 Jul 2006)

Tactical high energy lasers (THEL, or M-THEL for the mobile version) have been developed by US companies and Israel over the past years with great expectations and some success. Below is an article in Defense Update magazine showing photos of a successful destruction of a rocket in 2000.

Where are these lasers today? The Wikipedia article about THEL says Israel discontinued their deployment prior to the current war. Why? 

Joaquim, a concerned civilian.

http://www.defense-update.com/directory/THEL.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tactical_high_energy_laser


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## GAP (27 Jul 2006)

joaquim said:
			
		

> Where are these lasers today? The Wikipedia article about THEL says Israel discontinued their deployment prior to the current war. Why?
> http://www.defense-update.com/directory/THEL.htm



If you had read the full article you would have found



> *Northrop Grumman proposed to use "relocatable" THEL systems to counter mortar and rocket threats on US military facilities in Iraq. Since funding for the MTHEL program was cut in 2004, such system may not be available for deployment in the near future. A second generation "relocatable" THEL system is currently considered for deployment. Such system will weigh about one-quarter the size of the current THEL and will fit into a 20 foot container which can be airlifted to forward areas. The new system will offer the same capability. Such systems are expected to cost $25 million a piece, when fielded in large numbers (30+). Future laser weapons will be based on electrically generated lasers and run on diesel fuel, rather than specially supplied chemical liquid fuel. However, while THEL based weapon could be fielded in less than two years, an equivalent system based on electrically powered laser will not be feasible before 2011. The system's radar is already operational in Israel, providing early warning from Palestinian attacks on the the city of Shderot*


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## tomahawk6 (27 Jul 2006)

As Nasrallah is number one on the IDF target list it would be surprising if he returns to Lebanon until after a ceasefire. His two patrons cannot be too happy with him.

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=JPost/JPArticle/ShowFull&cid=1153292012439


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## GAP (27 Jul 2006)

In the same vein

Lebanese Palestinians to join Hizbullah
By KHALED ABU TOAMEH  Jul. 25, 2006 21:33 | Updated Jul. 25, 2006 22:15
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1153291995975&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

Palestinian gunmen in Lebanon are set to join the fighting against the IDF, the leader of the Fatah faction in Lebanon, Sultan Abu al-Aynain, announced on Tuesday. 

He said Fatah, which is headed by Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas, has thousands of fighters in Lebanon who are prepared to participate in the fighting and warned Israel against targeting Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon. 

It is unclear whether the announcement was made in coordination with Abbas. Sources close to Abbas refused to comment on Abu al-Aynain's threats, but acknowledged that he was Fatah's "military commander" in Lebanon. 

The sources pointed out that in the past, Abu al-Aynain had dispatched Palestinians to Iraq to fight against US troops. 

"We are interested in defending our camps and we will fight with honor to preserve our dignity," Abu al-Aynain told the Al-Arabiya TV News Channel. "We will resist any attempt to approach our camps." 
More on link


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## tomahawk6 (27 Jul 2006)

THEL wont be operational until 2007.


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## pbi (27 Jul 2006)

> The new system will offer the same capability. Such systems are expected to cost $25 million a piece



How many of these would you have to deploy to provide a useful level of protection for civilian areas?  This seems like an awfully rich and complicated way to take out very cheap and quite plentiful dumb-ass ballistic systems like Katyusha, 120mm mor, or whatever else Hizbollah has got. The power consumption must be hideous.  What's wrong with CM/CB radar guiding a PGM response? Seems much more flexible, simple and cost-efficient to me.

Cheers


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## tomahawk6 (27 Jul 2006)

Some info.

http://www.defense-update.com/directory/THEL.htm

http://www.missilethreat.com/systems/thel.html


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## GAP (28 Jul 2006)

On a side note...radars are being used to focus on traffic

New radar system for troops in Afghanistan  
Thursday July 20, 2006 (0212 PST) Pak Tribune
http://paktribune.com/news/index.shtml?150365

LONDON: RADAR technology developed for the RAF will be rushed into service three years early to combat terrorists operating across the borders in Iraq and Afghanistan, defence sources revealed. 
The Astor surveillance system will be used to scan hundreds of miles of desert and mountains to pinpoint insurgents smuggling guns, bombs, drugs and fighters. 

As the Taliban campaign grows in intensity in Helmand province, Afghanistan, where almost 4,000 British troops are based, the new system’s ability to pick out lorries and cars from hundreds of miles away will stop reinforcements. 

Astor (Airborne Stand Off Radar) will also be pressed into operation to spy on Iraq’s border with Iran, where it is believed insurgents assemble car bombs before driving them to Basra and Baghdad. 

"What other system could provide you with such border policing?’’ a senior military source said yesterday. "It is one of the things that they are crying out for in theatre. 
More on Link.


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## joaquim (28 Jul 2006)

I found the reason why the program was cancelled: not inefficiency, like some here have suggested, but money. 

From a column in the Wall Street Journal:



> Uri Rubin, former head of the Arrow project, told me in an interview from Israel this week that the relatively poor accuracy of the cheap Katyushas has been an argument against investing in an expensive anti-Katyusha defense system. This cost-comparison calculus was one reason Israel shelved plans to deploy Northrop Grumman's THEL system, whose lasers routinely have shot down Katyushas at the Army's White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico. Speaking this week about the earlier decision, Mr. Rubin said, "You also have to compare the cost of no defense"--for lives or infrastructure.



The column covers in details the strategic importance of these cheap, short range rockets that can carry chemical or biological agents. Uri Rubin calls them "ideal weapons for terrorizing population centers." 

The friends of Hezbollah have rencently denounced in Montreal's streets the low value placed on Muslim lives in Lebanon. I wonder how much a Jew's life weighs in this "cost-comparison calculus".

http://www.opinionjournal.com/columnists/dhenninger/?id=110008713


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## acclenticularis (29 Jul 2006)

News item from CBC ... very interesting

http://www.cbc.ca/story/world/national/2006/07/28/lahoud-interview.html


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## Kirkhill (29 Jul 2006)

http://web.mit.edu/cascon/cases/case_lbn.html

It needs to be done zipperhead but I have some understanding for nova_flush's countrymen's position.  They fought a 15 year civil war from 1975 to 1990 that ultimately saw 53 private armies roaming the countryside (according to MIT), every regional power involved as well as the major powers, no central government in a controlling position and the Israelis in the South.  It needs to be done but it may be difficult to find people to go back to the fight.


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## geo (30 Jul 2006)

Interesting pictures but............ what's so damning?
Hezbollah is a militia = no uniforms. They carry out hit and run attacks throughout southern Lebanon.  One minute they are civies minding their own business, the next they fire off rockets behind the "protection" of local citzens.... then to dissapear within the fleeing population mass once they have carried out their dirty deed.

But this is not new and I don't find it all that damning.


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## George Wallace (30 Jul 2006)

geo said:
			
		

> Hezbollah is a militia = no uniforms. They carry out hit and run attacks throughout southern Lebanon.  One minute they are civies minding their own business, the next they fire off rockets behind the "protection" of local citzens.... then to dissapear within the fleeing population mass once they have carried out their dirty deed.



Odd?  I wouldn't call them at all a 'militia', as I would perceive a Militia to have some form of rudimentary uniforms.  I would look at these photos as those taken of "Terrorists", who are not identified as 'combatants' under the rules of the Geneva Conventions.


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## vonGarvin (30 Jul 2006)

geo said:
			
		

> Interesting pictures but............ what's so damning?
> Hezbollah is a militia = no uniforms. They carry out hit and run attacks throughout southern Lebanon.  One minute they are civies minding their own business, the next they fire off rockets behind the "protection" of local citzens.... then to dissapear within the fleeing population mass once they have carried out their dirty deed.
> 
> But this is not new and I don't find it all that damning.


Think about it.  Sure, they have no uniforms.  Big deal.  But, they park next to a house, fire off rockets, and then scream bloody murder when that neighbourhood is levelled.  Imagine some yahoos driving up to YOUR house and blasting off rockets.  I'd be hurling rocks at them, firing my potato gun at them, whatever, and then getting the heck out of dodge ASAP.
There are many who decry the loss of civilian life over there.  Good for them.  They all blame Isreal.  Bad for them.  Where are the anti-hezbollah demonstrations?  Nowhere to be found.  PM Harper comes out on the side of the ELECTED DEMOCRATIC government that is suffering rocket attacks that are deliberately fired on their populace and HE is criticised?  This planet of ours needs another flood, I swear!


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## vonGarvin (30 Jul 2006)

George Wallace said:
			
		

> Odd?  I wouldn't call them at all a 'militia', as I would perceive a Militia to have some form of rudimentary uniforms.  I would look at these photos as those taken of "Terrorists", who are not identified as 'combatants' under the rules of the Geneva Conventions.


I wouldn't even call it a "Levee en masse", since they started this whole affair.  Hell, all you need is an armband, something that the French Resistance even did!


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## Loachman (30 Jul 2006)

The point of the headline is that it shows why civilian buildings are being hit - not because Israel simply gets off on devastating civilian buildings and killing women and children, but because Hezbollah is using immoral, if effective, tactics. The Israeli strikes are shown to be on legitimate targets. While hardcore protesters/anti-Israelis will of course continue to blame Israel, more reasonable people will understand why Israel is dropping bombs in towns.

So far, Hezbollah has been winning the propaganda war. This article shows the other side.


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## George Wallace (30 Jul 2006)

couchcommander said:
			
		

> Hrm... all of those civillian casualities...


....whose weapons were taken to be used by others...(So the Press and authorities wouldn't find them.)


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## couchcommander (30 Jul 2006)

Indeed, what I was going for. 

The difference between a hizballah, and a civillian, in this case, is the gun his buddy took away.


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## Centurian1985 (31 Jul 2006)

Quagmire said:
			
		

> Bo your forgetting something.  Something that is done in Iraq and A Stan.  When you come up to a building that has enemy and civies you must make the determination to go around them or through them.  If you decide to go through them you call in an air strike to minimize your own casualties.   That's what boots on the ground does.



For those who dont already know this is a common tactic used by rebels, insurgents, terrorists, and even national armed forces of countries involved in civil war or independence.  The purpose is to create a win-win situation for a force (Side A) by placing unarmed civilians either on or very close to valid military targets.  This causes either a) the attacker (Side B) sees the close proximity of civilians and decides not to attack to target, thus saving the target from destruction (but Side A is still violating LOAC and Geneva Concventions), or b) the attacker (Side B) attacks anyway with the result that innocent civilians (Side A) are injured or killed thus giving the defenders (Side A) several minutes of useful propoganda or their cause.  These are planned contingency plans, not accidents, used successfully in Iraq and the Balkans, to name a few places.  In both cases, the force using civilians as a shield (Side A) are at fault as any responsible military force is expected to evacuate the civilians from the engagement area.  The attacking force (Side B) is in a lose-lose situation: they lose if they attack due to undesired casualties (Side A) and they lose if they dont attack because the military assets can be used to cause undesired casualties on thir own side (Side B).  Faced with a choice of their opponents (Side A) having casualties or themselves (Side B) having casualties, they are forced to inflict unwanted casualties on the enemy (Side A).


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## enfield (31 Jul 2006)

Israel appears to be losing this propoganda war. Hitting a UN OP, and now hitting a house with 30-60 (reports seem sketchy) civilians inside suggests that Israel needs to be a little more careful in its targetting. Whatever the arguments about 'fog of war', collateral damage, etc., when these incidents occur it costs valuable political and diplomatic currency. Rules of engagement always stresss measured and equal response - demolishing Lebanon is not an equal response to some rockets and a couple kidnappings. 

I'm generally on Israel's side (and definitely never on Hezbollah's side) but frankly, the IDF has been disappointing in this campaign. The heavy use of air power and indirect fire to fight the main fight inevitably leads to incidents like the UN post and large scale civilian casualties. Maybe more ground forces are the answer, or a better public relations plan to highlight successes - I don't know, and I'm hesitant to play arm-chair general with the few facts we have available now. I agree that Israel had to respond in a massive and decisive way to the attacks by Hezbollah, but so far they've failed - daily rocket attacks rise, civilian deaths increase, and Lebanon is pushed further into the Dark Age. The US and the West are going to force a cease fire soon, and by all accounts Hezbollah is still standing in the ruins.


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## Journeyman (31 Jul 2006)

Enfield said:
			
		

> I don't know, and I'm hesitant to play arm-chair general with the few facts we have available now.



+1  Two wise phrases, absent from much discussion on this topic


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## 54/102 CEF (31 Jul 2006)

Agile networks insight here - their chain of command is very light - here's your mission - fight and die.

From New York Times 

A New Enemy Gains on the U.S.  
By THOM SHANKER
Published: July 30, 2006

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/30/weekinreview/30shanker.html?oref=login&pagewanted=all

If you can't figure out the big words it goes like this - this is war without rules and traditional lineups of sections, platoons, companies, battalions, at the same time - every war tends to start as a surprise to one side or the other.

Whatever they do is bad - but if you respond in kind - they and your own people pile on - thats very bad!


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## Journeyman (31 Jul 2006)

GAP said:
			
		

> It does seem *disjointed* doesn't it. Almost *timid*. Political control may explain some of the timidity, but I keep waiting for the hammer to fall.


LMAO, just moments after commenting on people playing arm-chair general with few facts, now _I'll_ weigh in with mere speculation (dammit   ).

I suspect one of the factors affecting their operations is that Israel published its new military doctrine in April, _The General Staff's Operational Concept for the IDF_. Doctrine is very closely linked with an army's culture, and hence, takes a while to change. Is it possible that recent Staff College graduates and General Staff officers are trying to implement a "new way of war," while the lower-level commanders (LCol & below, especially reservists) are not up to speed on "the vision"?

I'll speculate even further away from any factual knowledge and suggest that they may be having difficulties getting the concepts out to the warfighters because two of the more brilliant developers of the doctrine (BGen [Res] Dov Tamari and, especially, BGen [Res] Dr. Shimon Naveh), were recently sacked. I haven't heard what has happened with them since this latest fighting broke out, but these two respected officers were removed from the leadership of  the IDF's Operational Theory Research Institute (OTRI), because of "irregularities in their billing procedures."1


Note: completely wild-assed guess follows: Debate occurring between the new doctrine and the old doctrine is likely ending as this is being typed. Old-school IDF commanders are also pointing to the disjointed timidity and saying, "see Ishmael, this fancy new thinking just don't work." 

Conversely, there is a growing awareness of propaganda, particularly amongst the political leadership - - Ariel Sharon, after consulting with his _public relations team_ (not Mossad or the IDF), unilaterally withdrew from Gaza in 2003, while firing IDF Chief of General Staff and Director of the National Security Council for not supporting the move. 

If these politicians are stronger, then greater attempts at PR will be seen, while the disjointed nature of the operations will continue. If the traditional military is stronger, this will result in old doctrine reasserting itself as multiple Bde(+)-size assaults northward....soon. 


Just my guess. Worth _exactly_ what you paid for it   

--------------------
1. Caroline Glick, _The Jerusalem Post_, 8 June 2006


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## Centurian1985 (31 Jul 2006)

That tends to lead to the time-honoured uncomfortable question that lawyers and politicians have been ducking for years: do you have to carry a weapon or commit an act of violence to be labelled a terrorist?  

Is the cook who feeds the terrorists also a terrorist? Is the mechanic who fixes the truck that launches missles also a terrorist? If they know they are feeding and working for a terrorist group then yes, they are accomplices in any terrorist acts that the terrorists commit. 

Is the wife who cooks for her terrorist husband and his buddies a terrorist? Is the teenager, the nephew of a terrorist, who carries messages between cells also a terrorist?  This is the really hot issue.  Have they been coerced or are they accomplices? Im sure the Hizbollah would say 'no' and call them innocent civilians, while the Israelis might be willing to label them as willing supporters. 

In the end it is impossible to confirm 100% who is who.


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## I_am_John_Galt (31 Jul 2006)

CNN Reliable Sources (hosted by Howard Kurtz, transcript): http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0607/23/rs.01.html



> KURTZ: All right. I want to go now to CNN's Nic Robertson, who joins us live from Beirut.
> 
> Nic Robertson, we were speaking a moment ago about the way journalists cover Hezbollah and some of these tours that Hezbollah officials have arranged of the bomb damage in the areas of Southern Lebanon. You, I believe, got one of those tours.
> 
> ...



Which is also reflected in Mr. Majoor's post here: http://forums.army.ca/forums/threads/48147/post-420234.html#msg420234 

This line bears repeating: "And absolutely, when you hear their claims they have to come with -- with a -- more than a grain of salt"


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## couchcommander (31 Jul 2006)

rifleman said:
			
		

> On the same token, I don't understand why people think when military operations are being carried out, there is no limit to what actions can or should be taken.



No, there are limits - namely actions against civilians that go beyond what is required to successfully complete their operations. However, as has been said, if Hizballah is hiding behind civilians - it's their fault for bringing them into this.

You know, Hizballah could basically stop all Lebanese civilian causalities, and it's really quite simple. Start wearing recognizable uniforms, separating military and civilian infrastructure, and evacuating people from areas if they choose to conduct operations from them. 

One of the primary purposes of uniforms is to identify combatants, and if Hizballah chooses to blur that line, then I am not angry at Israel for innocent Lebanese deaths - it's Hizballah's fault for bringing them into this. 

I can't say I agree 100% with Israel's actions, but I am certainly not angry with them.


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## cplcaldwell (31 Jul 2006)

What seems strange, given the intense media attention to this issue is the absence of any imagery that supports Israel's claims. I don't doubt their claims. Additionally, Hezbollah's 'MO' over the years tend (IMHO) to indicate they are not above such tactics (strategy?).

I just think that it's odd in this day of Google Earth and multiple high resolution image satellites (both government and private) that no one has been able to produce this proof. (Even a 3m resolution image would lend some credence to this claim). 

Additionally, the Israeli's must be using something for target acquistion, it would seem that at least one shot from a Sperwer (or whatever they use) would help absolve them. 

Hezbollah may very well be engaging in a crass and cynical attempt to win this war by buggering the IDF, but why doesn't someone, the IDF or some third party produce something to demonstrate that there were fighters on the hill at al-Khayim or Katyusha's parked next to the shelter at Qana? 

This current state of affairs is all very Orwellian.


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## GAP (31 Jul 2006)

here is a link from Christian Science Monitor...interesting article...kinda reinforces what is being said here and in other threads..

Is Hizbullah winning by losing?
posted July 31, 2006 at 12:30 p.m.
Analysts fear a PR victory for Islamist 'fanaticsm' would destabilize regional hopes for democracy.
By Tom Regan  | csmonitor.com

http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/0731/dailyUpdate.html?s=mesdu
 one of the paragraphs

One reason for Israel's reluctance to accept a cease-fire is that a growing number of terrorism and security experts, and even members of Hizbullah's political wing, believe that Hizbullah will be seen as the "winner" of the battle with Israel if it merely survives. Newsweek reports that as the fighting has continued and Israel has not been able to achieve significant military goals, the Bush administration has come to the realization that "Hizbullah could win simply by losing."


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## ghazise (31 Jul 2006)

Lebanon's government has a power sharing parliament, with a number of seats dedicated along religious lines.  Lebanon has a Prime Minister and a President, The pro-Hezbollah president has had his term extended previous to the Syrian withdrawal.  The Prime Minister, does not support Hezbollah and did want to disarm the militia.  Unfortunately within the Lebanese parliament resolutions to comply with UN resolutions to disarm Hezbollah were vetoed by the President.  So with the withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon, Hezbollah was left, Lebanon had no way to force the disarmament of Hezbollah.


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## I_am_John_Galt (1 Aug 2006)

tourza said:
			
		

> About as well as talks between Egypt and Israel went, or between Israel and Jordan. Both Egypt and Jordan have negotiated peace treaties with Israel. Neither was negotiated in the immediate aftermath of war.
> 
> What's the alternative? Fight your way to a stalemate. Israel and Hizballah have both been down this very same road before. I believe peace is possible between Hizballah and Israel, and it will come to be within the next few years. How many Israelis and Lebanese need to die between now and then? Hizballah and Israel aren't really that far apart.
> 
> ...



You're joking, right?

I suppose Hizbollah just wants peace, right?  Once the Israelis withdraw from, um, Israel are all dead, the world will be at peace ... in Nasrallah's words:

_"Israel is an illegal usurper entity, which is based on falsehood, massacres, and illusions, and there is no chance for its survival."_ http://memri.org/bin/opener.cgi?Page=archives&ID=SP3699

_"if {the Jews} all gather in Israel, it will save us the trouble of going after them worldwide."_ http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/printer-friendly.asp?ARTICLE_ID=29387

_"It is an open war until the elimination of Israel and until the death of the last Jew on earth."_ http://www.nysun.com/pf.php?id=10439

_"{Jews} are a cancer which is liable to spread again at any moment."_ http://www.aei.org/publications/pubID.24667,filter.all/pub_detail.asp

Peace with Israel is the _last_ thing Hizbollah wants ...


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## Infanteer (1 Aug 2006)

I tend to agree with John Galt; as opposed to the moderate Hashemites in Jordan and the realist Nasserite's in Egypt, the hardcore Hezbollah don't really see peace as a strategic goal.  However, the Economist had a really good article last week (I'm trying to get it up here) that described how Hezbollah is wearing out its novelty with much of the Mid-East who isn't keen on the boat rocking being done (as if there isn't enough going on).  Hopefully, enough backroom pressure can be applied on Hezbollah, but Israel's actions make it hard - especially for amiable governments in the region like Egypt or Saudi Arabia which have angry citizens to deal with.


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## a_majoor (1 Aug 2006)

I am a bit sceptical of the idea that there can be a meaningful dialogue between Israel and Hezbollah. Israel has taken virtually every step demanded of it, exchanging prisoners, evacuating Southern Lebanon (by choice, not under duress), offering someting like 90% of the demands made in Oslo and Camp David to the Palestinians, refraining from striking until horribly provoked, and they get in return? Suicide bomb attacks against schools, restaurants, night clubs and buses, killing and kidnapping of her uniformed personnel and rocket attacks against civilian targets.

Hezbollah, and its masters in Iran openly call for the destruction of the State of Israel, with predictable results to the population. The results of a Hezbollah "victory" for the population of Lebanon can also be imagined, the real or perceived legitimacy of Hezbollah even in achieving a stalemate will probably result in a Taliban like state being established in Lebanon (so much for the Paris of the Middle East).

What makes this entire affair so macabre is that Israel is a constitutional, democratic, free market state, yet where are the pro Israel rallies and offers of help and support from the constitutional, democratic, free market states around the world? Where is the wild, sputtering outrage against Hezbollah fighters who deliberately use the civil population of Lebanon as human shields (and who's deaths should properly be recorded as being caused by the Hezbollah, who gleefully engineer these murders)?

Egypt and Jordan may not have negotiated peace in the immediate aftermath of a war, but after repeatedly being shown military victory was not possible. Since their governments and societies are guided by fairly secular principles, peace treaties made sense. Hezbollah represents a very different type of society, which is not grounded on the same principles of statesmanship, Realpolitik or anything else we are familiar with. The closest analogue might be an Indian reservation taken over by the "Warriors society", or imagining the Hell's Angels in control of a local municipality. Since they are only interested in the raw exercise of power, the only dialogue which they understand is "you are under arrest". Given the vastly expanded range and power of Hezbollah, and the presence of an external state sponsor, "you are under arrest" isn't going to cut it.

What is the answer? We have seen the historical results of occupation, concessions and dialogue and we know they don't work. Any bright ideas?


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## tomahawk6 (1 Aug 2006)

A strike against a major Hizbollah base what is probably a kidnap mission.

http://haaretz.com/hasen/spages/745276.html


----------



## tomahawk6 (1 Aug 2006)

Possibly.


----------



## Infanteer (2 Aug 2006)

Okay, T-6 has added some material, so the playground is reopened.  Any posts that really hamper the thread (and I know they'll come) will most likely be removed.  I want to keep this thread open so we don't have to police up Lebanon threads all over the friggen forums.

Anyways, I'll leave off with a good link to a similar discussion on the LF boards:

http://lightfighter.net/eve/forums/a/tpc/f/5131022531/m/1351094552/p/1



> *Originally posted by Abu Buckwheat*:
> 
> I have seen the Izzies fire with all the tubes of an arty regiment (and include corps level assets too) on a 100 meter Grid of dense, heavily civilian populated urban terrain just because they suspected a PLO mortar was there.  Then they'd kep it up for hours. I mean like 50 rounds simultaneously impacting in one grid and then continuing for three or four hours (check the history of the seige of beirut and you will find this went on for months) in the Middle of Beirut.  They killed dozens of people each day without blinking an eye.  Thats their combat doctrine- All Offensive fire is D.G.A.F.-fire (Don't Give a Fuck).  Unfortunately it doesn't help them in the world of public opinion, they wonder why come off as bloodthirsty & uncontrolled to everyone but us.
> 
> ...


----------



## zipperhead_cop (2 Aug 2006)

Looks like it's going now:


http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/01082006/2/world-israel-sends-10-000-troops-southern-lebanon.html
*Israel sends up to 10,000 troops into southern Lebanon * 
 32 minutes ago

BEIRUT (AP) - Israel poured up to 10,000 armoured troops into southern Lebanon on Tuesday and sent commando forces deep into the eastern Bekaa Valley where they raided a Hezbollah-run hospital and captured guerrillas during pitched battles, a major escalation of the three-week-old war. 

The Israeli military confirmed the attack on the ancient city Baalbek, about 130 kilometres north of Israel. It said troops, ferried in by helicopter, captured an unspecified number guerrillas and all soldiers returned unharmed. The statement gave no other details. 


The Baalbek raid was the deepest ground attack on Lebanon since fighting began 21 days ago. 


The ferocity of the battles in the Bekaa Valley and across southern Lebanon and the determination of the Israelis to keep fighting quelled expectations for an early ceasefire, although U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said an agreement on how to end the conflict is possible within days, not weeks. 


Hezbollah's rocket attacks into Israel, meanwhile, diminished. Hezbollah fired just 10 rockets across the border Tuesday, well below an average of about 100 a day since fighting began. 


Early Wednesday, Hezbollah's chief spokesman Hussein Rahal said Israeli troops landed near the Hezbollah-run Dar al-Hikma Hospital in Baalbek, about 15 kilometres from Lebanon's border with Syria. 


"A group of Israeli commandos was brought to the hospital by a helicopter. They entered the hospital and are trapped inside as our fighters opened fire on them and fierce fighting is still raging," Rahal said early in the operation. 


Rahal dismissed as "untrue" reports the Israelis managed to snatch some patients from the hospital and spirit them away in helicopters. 


Fighting between Israelis and Hezbollah guerrillas around the hospital raged for more than four hours and planes dropped flares over the city during the clashes, witnesses said. 


They said at least five people were killed as Israeli planes staged more than 10 bombing runs around the hospital, as well as on hills in eastern and northern Baalbek where Hezbollah's supporters live. 


Witnesses said the hospital was hit in an Israeli air strike and was burning. 


The fighting ended at about 4 a.m. local time. 


Residents said the Dar al-Hikma hospital is financed by an Iranian charity, the Imam Khomeini Charitable Society, which is close to Hezbollah. The hospital is also run by people close to the militant group, the residents said on condition of anonymity. 


Baalbek is a city with spectacular Roman ruins, as well as the barracks of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards when they trained Hezbollah guerrillas in the 1980s. 


The last time Israel forces were known to have gone that far on the ground into Lebanon was in 1994, when they abducted Lebanese guerrilla leader Mustafa Dirani, hoping to use him to obtain information about missing Israeli airman Ron Arad. Dirani was released in a prisoner exchange 10 years later. 


In southern Lebanon on Tuesday, up to 10,000 troops in armoured personnel carriers and backed by tanks were operating in Lebanon along the border zone, Israeli defence officials said. Israel called up 30,000 reservists over the weekend and thousands of them were gathering at staging areas on the Israeli side of the border, ready to join the battles. 


Israel had 100,000 troops in Lebanon at the height of its 1982 invasion of Lebanon that began an 18-year occupation of the south. 


Troops battled guerrillas after Israel ordered its army to punch all the way to the Litani River, about 30 kilometres from the border. 

They entered through four different points along the border and moved about 6.5 kilometres inside Lebanon. Israeli officials said their soldiers were to go as far as the Litani and hold the ground until an international peacekeeping force comes ashore. 

But the army later said it had distributed leaflets northeast of the river at villages where Hezbollah is active. The leaflets told people to leave, suggesting the new offensive could take Israeli soldiers even deeper into Lebanon. 

Despite mounting civilian deaths, President George W. Bush held fast to support for Israel and was pressing for a UN resolution linking a ceasefire with a broader plan for peace in the Middle East. Staking out a different approach, European Union foreign ministers called for an "immediate cessation of hostilities," followed by efforts to agree on a sustainable ceasefire. 

U.S. State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said he expects some action in the UN Security Council in the coming days, perhaps this week. 

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said it is not in Israel's interest to agree to an immediate ceasefire because every day of fighting weakens the guerrillas. 

"Every additional day is a day that drains the strength of this cruel enemy," he said. 

"Every extra day is a day in which the (army) reduces their capability, contains their firing ability and their ability to hit in the future." 

The Israelis want to keep Hezbollah off the border so their patrols and civilians along the fence are not in danger of attack. The army also hopes to push Hezbollah far enough north so most of the guerrillas' rockets cannot reach the Jewish state. 

Israel resumed sporadic air strikes - hitting Hezbollah strongholds and supply lines from one end of Lebanon to the other - despite a pledge to suspend such attacks for another day in response to world outrage over the killing of 56 Lebanese in a weekend bombing. 

Aid groups had hoped to take advantage of the supposed 48-hour lull in air strikes to take food and medicine to civilians trapped in the south. But Israel denied access to two UN convoys. Others who made the journey described air strikes close to their convoys and bodies along the road. 

At nightfall Tuesday, Israeli troops were fighting Hezbollah at several points along the border in intense ground battles. Reporters and Arab television reported especially heavy fighting and Israeli artillery bombardment at the village Aita al-Shaab. 

The Israeli army said late Tuesday three Israeli soldiers died and 25 were slightly wounded by small-arms fire and anti-tank rockets in Aita al-Shaab. 

Israeli cabinet minister Haim Ramon said the fighting to date had killed about 300 of Hezbollah's main force of 2,000 fighters, which does not include its less-well-trained reserves. 

"That's a very hard blow," he said. 

Hezbollah has said only 46 of its fighters were killed. Four were lost in battles with Israeli ground troops in Adaisse and Taibeh, near the Christian town Marjayoun, about eight kilometres from the border with Israel, Hezbollah said. 

To the east at Kfar Kila, reporters saw at least three air strikes and the thud of artillery shells from Israeli ground troops was constant. About 20 shells landed in the hills around Kfar Kila during a 45-minute period. 

Israeli jet fighters also struck deep inside Lebanese territory, hitting Hermel, 120 kilometres north of the Israeli border in the Bekaa Valley. Planes fired at least five air-to-surface missiles on the edge of the town, targeting a road linking eastern Lebanon to western regions and the coastline. 

In the west, Israeli ships fired artillery into the villages Mansouri, Shamaa and Teir Harfan around the port city Tyre. No casualties were reported. 

Another strike at an area near the Syrian border, about 10 kilometres north of Hermel, targeted the Qaa-Homs road, one of four official crossing points between Lebanon and Syria. Two of the four border crossings are now closed because of damage and repeated air strikes have made the main Beirut-Damascus highway impassable. 

Polls in Israel show wall-to-wall support for Israel's fight against Hezbollah, even with Israeli civilians enduring a barrage of rocket fire and the army poised for a sweeping ground offensive that is sure to lead to more casualties. 

But the deaths of 56 Lebanese in the devastating weekend strike in Qana focused attention on civilian casualties. 

Three more civilians were killed and three seriously wounded when Israeli planes hit a house in the southern Lebanese town Lweizeh, Lebanese security officials said Tuesday. 

Also, the Lebanese Red Cross said the bodies of 12 civilians were retrieved from the rubble of buildings destroyed in air strikes on four villages in southern Lebanon and many more were believed still buried. It was not clear when the victims were killed. 

At least 532 Lebanese have been killed, including 461 civilians and 25 Lebanese soldiers and at least 46 Hezbollah guerrillas. The health minister said the toll could be as high as 750, including those still buried in rubble or missing. Fifty-four Israelis have died - 36 soldiers, as well as 18 civilians killed in Hezbollah rocket attacks.  

Guess we'll have to wait out and see where the chips fall.  God protect anyone that deserves it.


----------



## tamouh (2 Aug 2006)

According to Reuters:
http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=TopNews&storyID=2006-08-02T041321Z_01_L30823603_RTRUKOC_0_US-MIDEAST.xml&WTmodLoc=Home-C1-TopStories-TopNews-2



> "During the night, (Israeli) forces operated in the town of Baalbek," an Israeli army spokeswoman said. "A number of terrorists were also arrested and taken to Israel."
> 
> 
> No Israeli troops were wounded in the operation. "The soldiers returned home safely," she said.
> ...



I know the Arab media is stating the raid was an attempt to capture a wounded senior Hezbollah member Muhammad Yezbek, they're stating he wasn't in the hospital and the hospital was surrounded by Hezbollah fighters. I guess the IDF managed to capture couple of fighters and exit the place. It will all be clear in the morning!

What Abu Buckwheat said I've seen in my own eyes during the 1980s visiting my relatives, Israeli missile batteries positions on top of the southern hills of Tripoli launching rounds after rounds of missiles every couple of hours in the direction of Beirut , it used to flare during the evening, a sight I've never had seen before that night.


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## Bruce Monkhouse (2 Aug 2006)

http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/MediaNews/2006/08/01/1714131-ap.html
3 major news agencies deny British website claim they faked Lebanon photos

NEW YORK (AP) - Three international news agencies rejected challenges Tuesday to the veracity of photographs of bodies taken in the aftermath of an Israeli air strike in Lebanon, strongly denying the images were staged. 
Photographers from The Associated Press, Reuters and Agence France-Presse all covered rescue operations Sunday in Qana, where 56 Lebanese were killed. Many of their photos depicted rescue workers carrying dead children. 

A British website, the EU Referendum blog, argued chicanery may have been involved by citing time stamps that went with captions of the photographs. 

For example, the website draws attention to a photo by AP's Lefteris Pitarakis time stamped 7:21 a.m., showing a dead girl in an ambulance. Another picture, stamped 10:25 a.m. and taken by AP's Mohammed Zaatari, shows the same girl being loaded onto the ambulance. In a third, by AP photographer Nasser Nasser and stamped 10:44 a.m., a rescue worker carries the girl with no ambulance nearby. 

The site suggests these events were staged for effect, a criticism echoed by right-wing U.S. radio talk-show host Rush Limbaugh when he directed listeners to the blog Monday. 

"These photographers are obviously willing to participate in propaganda," Limbaugh said. 
"They know exactly what's being done, all these photos, bringing the bodies out of the rubble, posing them for the cameras, it's all staged. Every bit of it is staged and the still photographers know it." 

The AP said information from its photo editors showed the events were not staged and the time stamps could be misleading for several reasons, including websites using such stamps to show when pictures are posted, not taken. An AFP executive said he was stunned to be questioned about it. Reuters, in a statement, said it categorically rejects any such suggestion. 
"It's hard to imagine how someone sitting in an air-conditioned office or broadcast studio many thousands of miles from the scene can decide what occurred on the ground with any degree of accuracy," said Kathleen Carroll, AP's senior vice-president and executive editor. 

Carroll said in addition to speaking with photo editors, "I also know from 30 years of experience in this business that you can't get competitive journalists to participate in the kind of (staging) experience that is being described." 

Photographers are experienced in recognizing when someone is trying to stage something for their benefit, she said. 
"Do you really think these people would risk their lives under Israeli shelling to set up a digging ceremony for dead Lebanese kids?" asked Patrick Baz, Mideast photo director for AFP. 
"I'm totally stunned by first the question and I can't imagine that somebody would think something like that would have happened." 

The AP had three different photographers who weren't always aware of what the others were doing and filed their images to editors separately, said Santiago Lyon, director of photography. 
There are also several reasons not to draw conclusions from time stamps, Lyon said. Following a news event like this, the AP does not distribute pictures sequentially; photos are moved based on news value and how quickly they are available for an editor to transmit. 

The AP indicates to its members when they are sent on the wire and member websites sometimes use a different time stamp to show when they are posted.


----------



## GAP (2 Aug 2006)

Pull Canada out of UN
Too many questions linger over world body's activities  
By Ezra Levant  July 31, 2006 Calgary Sun
http://calsun.canoe.ca/News/Columnists/Levant_Ezra/2006/07/31/1711362.html

Until last week, a lot of people probably thought: "an answer to the war is to station some United Nations troops between Israel and Lebanon." 

But because of the tragic deaths of a Canadian peacekeeper in a UN bunker near the border, everyone now knows that, in fact, the UN has been there for years -- since 1978, in fact. 

It didn't stop terrorist attacks on Israel in the past, it isn't stopping the war today, and it won't do anything in the future, either. 

Which raises the question: What exactly is the UN doing there? 

Prime Minister Stephen Harper asked that in a different way; he wanted to know what the UN "observers" -- including a Canadian soldier -- were still doing there in the middle of a hot shooting war. 
More on link


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## GAP (2 Aug 2006)

Following the Money In Lebanon  
http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htlead/articles/20060802.aspx

August 2, 2006: Hizbollah is a major economic factor in Lebanon, with an annual operating budget of $650-700 million a year, of which some $250 million seems to come from Iran. The rest comes from other donors, including some Islamic charities, and a large number of legitimate businesses, which includes banking, and illegal activities (drugs and smuggling). A fair chunk of this money is spent on social programs, rather than the movement's military wing, but the ratio between the two is unknown. 

There are about 1.3 million Shia in Lebanon, and they are the main benefits of Hizbollahs spending. Since the Shia have, and remain, the poorest segment of Lebanese society (the Christians have always been the wealthiest), the Hizbollah money is very important. As such, that comes to over $500 of Hizbollah money, per capita each year for Lebanese Shia. Hizbollah is the major employer for Shia. Because so much of that money comes from Iran, and the Shia supported the two decade Syrian occupation of Lebanon, the Shia remain at odds with most Lebanese. 
More on link


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## vonGarvin (2 Aug 2006)

Back on topic:
It is clear to me that in spite of facing a nebulous enemy, the Isreali Army is using "relics" of the cold war, albeit in new roles.  Main Battle Tanks no longer take on other tanks at ranges beyond 2000 metres.  Rather, they are taking on an armed dismounted threat from inside 200 metres.  Infantry/Tank cooperation is very important, perhaps moreso than ever.  My question: what lessons, if any, can Canada learn from this current conflict?


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## Kaplan (2 Aug 2006)

While we're talking about lovely children:

http://web.israelinsider.com/Articles/Diplomacy/9011.htm
A French language Lebanese publication, citing an unnamed source in Hezbollah, has claimed that the organization placed a rocket launcher on the roof of the notorious building in Qana to provoke an Israeli attack and brought invalid children inside to serve as victims and blacken Israel's name.

The Lebanese magazine LIBANOSCOPIE, associated with Christian elements which support the anti-Syrian movement called the "March 14 Forces," report that Hizbullah masterminded a plan that would result in the killing of innocents in Qana, in an attempt to foil Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora's "Seven Points Plan" calling for deployment of the Lebanese army in southern Lebanon and the disarming of Hizbullah. The magazine reported

"We have it from a credible source that Hezbollah, alarmed by Siniora's plan, has concocted an incident that would help thwart the negotiations.... Hezbollah gunmen placed a rocket launcher on the roof in Qana and brought disabled children inside, in a bid to provoke a response by the Israeli Air Force. In this way, they were planning to take advantage of the death of innocents and curtail the diplomatic initiative," the site stated.

The site's editors claimed that Hezbollah staged the event because of Qana's symbolic significance: "They used Qana because the village had already turned into a symbol for massacring innocent civilians, and so they set up 'Qana 2'." The incident has indeed been dubbed "The second Qana massacre" by the Arab media.


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## Journeyman (2 Aug 2006)

HDE said:
			
		

> Out of curiosity *what did Israel actually do to directly cause the killing/kidnapping of their soldiers * in this latest go-around?



I suggest it likely comes down to simple economics.1 
Israel's neighbours habitually get a great bargain when it comes down to prisoner exchange, or returning the remains of killed Israeli soldiers.

1. May 1985, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, swapped three Israeli soldiers in exchange for 1,150 Palestinian prisoners.
2. July 1996, Hezbollah returned the remains of two Israeli soldiers, in exchange for the remains of 123 Lebanese soldiers.
3. June 1998, Hezbollah returned the remains of one Israeli for the remains of 40 Hezbollah soldiers, and an unspecified number of Lebanese prisoners.
4. January 2004, Israel released a total of 436 prisoners including 400 Palestinians, 23 Lebanese, two Syrians, three Moroccans, three Sudanese, a Libyan, and a German Muslim, plus the remains of 59 Lebanese soldiers.....for the remains of three Israel soldiers and the release of an alleged Israeli intelligence officer.

Two live Israeli soldiers could have significant value in this sort of market. Maybe Israel just got tired of paying that exchange rate?


----------------------
1. Despite the absolute certainty of several posters' views here, on both sides of the debates, I don't think we're likely to know for sure unless some Hezbollah leadership logs on


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## Remius (2 Aug 2006)

That's what seems to be it.  Beyond the background stuff.  They kidnap some troops in the hope of bargaining for some better deal.  Israel gets tired of it and hits back hard (or uses this as an excuse to do it depending on your view of things).

Israel bargained in the past and unfortunately it seems to have sent the wrong message.  Which reinforces the whole "don't bargain with terrorists" line.


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## Colin Parkinson (2 Aug 2006)

tamouh said:
			
		

> Though Hezbollah claimed they had planned this operation for long time (and most likely true), I've to believe the IDF incursion into Gaza and Palestinian territory may have influenced their decision to go ahead with this mission. After all, all things are interconnected in the ME.



I suspect that the Gaza crisis created an opportunity for the Hezbollah to put an existing plan into operation, note how the President of Egypt commented that outside groups were urging Hamas not to give up the soldier they kidnapped, likely so as to give time for their own plan to be put in action. Apparently the IDF had already identified the area of the incident as a high risk area.


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## HDE (2 Aug 2006)

Too bad so many Lebanese civilians suffer due to his misjudgement;  sadly I don't imagine he'll ever be held accountable, at least by his toadies.


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## a_majoor (3 Aug 2006)

From the National Post, a little primer on 4GW. Canadians are fighting a similar battle in Afghanistan on the pages of the Toronto Star. Before anyone tries to post that the Israeli Army has a public affairs branch, read the article and see which side of the story is being reported by third parties like the BBC, and remember outfits like the BBC and CNN have resources which could allow to independently verify many claims:

http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/news/issuesideas/story.html?id=b0d85941-2565-4b47-b853-4041944114ee&p=1



> *The media war against Israel*
> The Jewish state is fighting not one enemy, but two: Hezbollah, and those who peddle its propaganda
> 
> Tom Gross
> ...



OF course why do the BBC, CBC or CNN not report *this*:
http://memri.org/bin/latestnews.cgi?ID=SD122906

(_edit to include new link_)


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## Edward Campbell (3 Aug 2006)

tourza said:
			
		

> Ok, good argument and I see your point. Let me try this:
> 
> "He [Israeli Foreign Minister David Levy] repeated his threats this time from the rostrum of the Knesset, copying Hitler, with the same stance, the same gestures, the same voice, the same manner and the same threats. Levy’s threats to kill children and burn Lebanon reveal the mentality of Israel, which is playing the role of the Nazi executioners who burned the Jews in Auschwitz, according to the Zionists."
> 
> ...



I thought I remembered this _“speech”_.  I went looking for it and found this, from the _Peoples Weekly World_ which is the direct descendant of the _Daily Worker_.  It does not appear to be an overly pro-Israel journal.  See: http://www.pww.org/article/static/320/

Here is a report from PWW, dated  it is reproduced here under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act.

http://www.pww.org/past-weeks-2000/Israeli%20minister.htm


> Israeli minister vows 'blood for blood'
> 
> By Hans Lebrecht
> 
> ...



The author, Hans Lebrecht, can hardly de described as anti-Arab; see: http://peacepalestine.blogspot.com/2006/06/hans-lebrecht-right-to-resistance.html and http://www.amin.org/eng/uncat/2003/aug/aug03.html  so when he says _” David Levy is not nuts. He also is not like Hitler, as some extremist commentators in Arab countries have said. No, his latest threats are nothing but blunt expressions of nuclear-saber rattling jingoism …” I think we might take him at his word.

Edit: punctuation, structure and format
_


----------



## CanadaPhil (4 Aug 2006)

ArmyVern said:
			
		

> .............. Previous borders fell due to winners and losers in war. This is the risk that a country takes when it chooses to go to war...then loses.



There is no better illustration of that point then the map of Europe from say 1806 to present day.


----------



## cplcaldwell (4 Aug 2006)

At the centre of all this, the Europe analogy (related to the borders analogy, as cited above), seems to have some merit. I remember when the Lebanese Civil War finally ended (1990'ish) that many commentators were heard to muse that Lebanon could become an example for the entire Middle East.

Lebanon, after all it is(was?) a beautiful country, with enough resources to generate some riches, it had a vibrant banking and trade economy and, perhaps most of all, a widely varied ethnic and religious community. (I remember reading Canadian commentator(s) extolling how Lebanon, thus, could become the 'Canada of the middle east' (!))

To extend the analogy of European borders let's think of the one country in Europe that's seen huge revision of her territory. Lebanon has always reminded me of Poland. Always a distinct entity, with a strong history, who had been for many years 'run over' by her more powerful and imperialist neighbours.  Lebanon from 1945 to 1967  had enjoyed a re-birth, like Poland from 1919 to 1939. Like Poland from 1939 to (arguably) to 1989, Lebanon from 1967 to 1989 (even, arguably, to 2000) was cut to pieces by war and foreign occupation.

In 1989 that seemed to be changing. The future looked bright, the original National Pact, the nascence of a Lebanese Constitution,( put together in the 40's at the end of of the French Mandate), had been updated to better reflect the current situation; a new power sharing agreement between the major groups in the country was in place, negating the need for the Druze Militias and the South Lebanese Army. The PLO had been turfed. (Israel seemed at least less belligerent on that last fact).

It looked like from 1990 onward, Lebanon could enjoy something like the sort of 'stability' it had enjoyed from 1945 to 1967. (I'll let the likely suspects correct me on whether that first date should have been 1990 or 2000)

*Well what went wrong?*

This thread is about the CRISIS IN LEBANON. 

Who did the pooch on this one? I mean it's easy to say Nasrullah and Hezbollah, is there an argument against Lahoude (he's always been seen as pro-Syria), what did Hariri's assassination mean? What should the Americans, the West, the EU have done to keep Hezbollah out of the Iranian sphere? And here's a big lob-ball for the anti-IDF crowd.... How, as pre-eminent regional power did Israel, screw up (2000 - 11 Jul 2006 ...please...please...)

I mean who cares about the next month, the IDF will not stop until they get what they need to get, after all Israel cannot afford to lose. Syria will sit it out, Assad can't risk losing. And, unacceptably, too many more non-combatants will die. Jordan, Egypt and the Saudis have all signed the Rome accord. In a couple of months this will calm down. I stabilization force will go in place. 

*What needs to be done when the dust settles 'to get it right' over the next year(s)*. How then do we ensure that 2006 to 2016 in Lebanon does not lead to the same carnage we see today? I mean this is not some flea infested little hole in the wall this place has the potential to be an example for the whole Middle East.

_Here ends my concerted attempt to change direction of the discussion._


----------



## CanadaPhil (4 Aug 2006)

Keeping on the idea of the convenient re-drawing of borders on maps to suit ones political aims, no one has really touched on the point of the Shebaa farms in this topic yet. Well, not that I have seen anyway.

The Shebaa farms region has been occupied by Israel since defeating Syria in the last major blowup between the two. 

Up until recently, Syria has always claimed this is Syrian soil. Even the historical maps in the UN's archive have always showed that this area was on the SYRIAN side of Lebanon/Syria border. It is rather curious now, that Hezbollah claims that this territory is Lebanese and that is the reason that they have continued to plan attacks against Israel even though they FULLY withdrew from Lebanon in 2000.

They needed to invent a reason to continue to "resist", as that was the purpose of the establishment of their organization. So it looks like they got the Syrians on board with the manufactured Shebaa farms argument. Now the Syrians claim that the area has always been Lebanese?? and use that as the justification for supporting Hezbollah's actions against Israel since 2000. 

It precisely because of BS like this that there were never be any kind of meaningful settlement here. At least not for the foreseeable future. 

Israel tries to disengage from Lebanon 6 years ago, and still they suffer attacks. They endure suicide bombers blowing up buses in Tel Aviv, yet they still make a real effort at peace with the Palestinians, by withdrawing from Gaza. 

But what does it get them?? I honestly cannot think of any real attempt at peace from the Arabs toward Israel in recent memory. 

I don't know why the Israeli's  even try anymore.


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## mcqueen (4 Aug 2006)

cplcaldwell said:
			
		

> But seriously folks. Shebaa has a long and problematic history, as does the nearby Kiryaat Shmona. These are key spots in the last flare up.



Exactly, not to mention other parts of the Golan Heights region.  This is very much disputed territory that Israel has not given back after past wars despite UN Resolutions.  That is what has created tensions and wars in the region for decades.  Militarily, the area is strategic and a major water source for irrigation. If you've ever been to Israel and the Golan Heights  area (I have) you'll see how irrigation is extensively used.  Syria wants their old land back, and Shebaa Farms is also claimed by Lebanon (though Syria would tend to disagree).  Bombing the crap out of a country will only harden future generations of terrorists like Syrian-supported-proxies like Hezbollah to strike back and continue this vicious cycle.  Hezbollah may even gain more supporters because of it from affected Lebanese, who knows?  IMO, until you solve the problem of the Golan Heights and the Palestinian issue, you won't have any peace in this region.  To broker any lasting peace deal in the current conflict you need to bring in the Syrians.


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## tomahawk6 (4 Aug 2006)

Well its out in the open now. Iran has admitted to supplying arms to Hizbollah. Janes is a pretty reliable source. Iran opens itself up to attack from Israel if a SAM takes out an IAF aircraft.

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/746631.html

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20060804/wl_mideast_afp/mideastconflictiranhezbollahweapons


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## kilekaldar (5 Aug 2006)

Hi, just read this at Yahoo News, reminded me of an article a while back about the Taliban trying to get better AT Weapons. Let's hope they don't get their hands on similar gear.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060805/ap_on_re_mi_ea/mideast_fighting_hezbollah_s_missiles

Missiles neutralizing Israeli tanks By BENJAMIN HARVEY, Associated Press Writer 
44 minutes ago

JERUSALEM - Hezbollah's sophisticated anti-tank missiles are perhaps the guerrilla group's deadliest weapon in Lebanon fighting, with their ability to pierce Israel's most advanced tanks. 

Experts say this is further evidence that Israel is facing a well-equipped army in this war, not a ragtag militia.

Hezbollah has fired Russian-made Metis-M anti-tank missiles and owns European-made Milan missiles, the army confirmed on Friday.

In the last two days alone, these missiles have killed seven soldiers and damaged three Israeli-made Merkava tanks — mountains of steel that are vaunted as symbols of Israel's military might, the army said. Israeli media say most of the 44 soldiers killed in four weeks of fighting were hit by anti-tank missiles.

"They (Hezbollah guerrillas) have some of the most advanced anti-tank missiles in the world," said Yossi Kuperwasser, a senior military intelligence officer who retired earlier this summer.

"This is not a militia, it's an infantry brigade with all the support units," Kuperwasser said.

Israel contends that Hezbollah gets almost all of its weaponry from        Syria and by extension        Iran, including its anti-tank missiles.

That's why cutting off the supply chain is essential — and why fighting Hezbollah after it has spent six years building up its arsenal is proving so painful to Israel, officials say.

Israel's Merkava tanks boast massive amounts of armor and lumber and resemble fortresses on tracks. They are built for crew survival, according to Globalsecurity.org, a Washington-based military think tank.

Hezbollah celebrates when it destroys one.

"A Zionist armored force tried to advance toward the village of Chihine. The holy warriors confronted it and destroyed two Merkava tanks," the group proclaimed on television Thursday.

The Israeli army confirmed two attacks on Merkava tanks that day — one that killed three soldiers and the other killing one. The three soldiers who were killed on Friday were also killed by anti-tank missiles, the army said.

It would not say whether the missiles disabled the tanks.

"To the best of my understanding, they (Hezbollah) are as well-equipped as any standing unit in the Syrian or Iranian armies," said Eran Lerman, a retired army colonel and now director of the Israel/Middle East office of the American Jewish Committee. "This is not a rat-pack guerrilla, this is an organized militia."

Besides the anti-tank missiles, Hezbollah is also known to have a powerful rocket-propelled grenade known as the RPG29. These weapons are also smuggled through Syria, an Israeli security official said, and were previously used by Palestinian militants in Gaza to damage tanks.

On Friday, Jane's Defense Weekly, a defense industry magazine, reported that Hezbollah asked Iran for "a constant supply of weapons" to support its operations against Israel.

The report cited Western diplomatic sources as saying that Iranian authorities promised Hezbollah a steady supply of weapons "for the next stage of the confrontation."

Top Israeli intelligence officials say they have seen Iranian Revolutionary Guard soldiers on the ground with Hezbollah troops. They say that permission to fire Hezbollah's longer-range missiles, such as those could reach Tel Aviv, would likely require Iranian go-ahead.


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## tomahawk6 (6 Aug 2006)

Little Green Footballs all over this faked photo. Too bad the media feels the need to do things like this.







http://littlegreenfootballs.com/weblog/?entry=21956_Reuters_Doctoring_Photos_from_Beirut&only


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## Trinity (6 Aug 2006)

nothing showing at the link

Can you provide info?

Very interesting...


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## GAP (6 Aug 2006)

Try this

http://littlegreenfootballs.com/weblog/


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## tomahawk6 (6 Aug 2006)

I think LGF is getting alot of hits right now. Reuters has admitted the photo was faked and has suspended the photgrapher.It was the same guy that did the pictures of the Qana victims that has been widely discussed as being staged.

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3286966,00.html


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## Scoobie Newbie (6 Aug 2006)

Reuters Pulls Phony Photo
Reuters admits altering Beirut photo. (Hat tip: LGF readers.)

A Reuters photograph of smoke rising from buildings in Beirut has been withdrawn after coming under attack by American web logs. The blogs accused Reuters of distorting the photograph to include more smoke and damage. 

The photograph showed two very heavy plumes of black smoke billowing from buildings in Beirut after an Air Force attack on the Lebanese capital. Reuters has since withdrawn the photograph from its website, along a message admitting that the image was distorted, and an apology to editors. 

In the message, Reuters said that “photo editing software was improperly used on this image. A corrected version will immediately follow this advisory. We are sorry for any inconvience.” 

Reuters’ head of PR Moira Whittle said in response: “Reuters has suspended a photographer until investigations are completed into changes made to a photograph showing smoke billowing from buildings following an air strike on Beirut. Reuters takes such matters extremely seriously as it is strictly against company editorial policy to alter pictures.” 

“As soon as the allegation came to light, the photograph, filed on Saturday 5 August, was removed from the file and a replacement, showing the same scene, was sent. The explanation for the removal was the improper use of photo-editing software,” she added. 

Earlier, Charles Johnson, of the Little Green Footballs blog , which has exposed a previous attempt at fraud by a major American news corporation, wrote : “This Reuters photograph shows blatant evidence of manipulation. Notice the repeating patterns in the smoke; this is almost certainly caused by using the Photoshop “clone” tool to add more smoke to the image.”


----------



## zipperhead_cop (6 Aug 2006)

Score one for the good guys, nice job LGF  

Of course, this info will get max coverage in the Middle East, where disinformation is heavily frowned on.  :


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## Scoobie Newbie (6 Aug 2006)

Has this made the regular media outlets?

If this was in Iraq or A Stan Reuters would be told to leave the area and not come back.


----------



## Scoobie Newbie (6 Aug 2006)




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## LeonTheNeon (6 Aug 2006)

The staggeringly funny thing, in a bad way, is just how terrible a job the photographer did on the picture.  For shame on Reuters, there's no possible way they could have thought it was authentic which says to me that they printed it knowing it was faked.  One cannot help but wonder if they really thought nobody would notice?  The mainstream media must really think that their audience are a bunch of mindless cretins.


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## Infanteer (6 Aug 2006)

http://www.jamestown.org/terrorism/news/article.php?articleid=2370089



> Hezbollah's Tactics and Capabilities in Southern Lebanon
> 
> By Andrew McGregor
> 
> ...


----------



## Kirkhill (7 Aug 2006)

So at what point do we reckon that the Sunni dominated Arab League and the Sunni and Christian dominated Lebanese government will figure that the Shia of Hezbollah and the Jews should stop killing each other?

Even Syria might find it advantageous to see if Israel can remove an embarassment and make it easier to talk to the US without a revolution at home.

And Nasrullah is relying on these guys to do his negotiating for him?  Quite the strategist.  Or am I missing something here?


----------



## FredDaHead (7 Aug 2006)

The Hezbollah, Syria, and the Palestinians have zero interest in peace. They want Israel to be destroyed.

Look what happened when Israel got out of Gaza and Lebanon: they got attacked inside their borders. If the Lebanese (Hezbollah) and Palestinians had any kind of interest in peace, they would've left Israel alone.

Israel's in for the long haul, and I think we (the Western world) will have to pick a side and act decisively. Peace won't happen.


----------



## The Bread Guy (7 Aug 2006)

Shared in accordance with the "fair dealing" provisions, Section 29, of the Copyright Act - http://www.cb-cda.gc.ca/info/act-e.html#rid-33409

*Reuters drops photographer over 'doctored' image*
Julia Day. 7 Aug 06
http://media.guardian.co.uk/site/story/0,,1839067,00.html?gusrc=rss&feed=1

Reuters has dropped a Lebanese freelance photographer after it emerged that he had doctored a picture of the aftermath of an Israeli air strike on Beirut.
The news agency told Adnan Hajj yesterday that it will no longer use his services after the photograph was revealed as fake by bloggers.

It showed thick black smoke rising above buildings in the Lebanese capital after an Israeli air raid in the war with the Shia Islamic group, Hizbullah, which is now in its fourth week. 

Reuters said it "withdrew the doctored image on Sunday and replaced it with the unaltered photograph after several news blogs said it had been manipulated using Photoshop software to show more smoke".

The agency said it had "strict standards of accuracy that bar the manipulation of images" so that viewers and readers were not misled.

"The photographer has denied deliberately attempting to manipulate the image, saying that he was trying to remove dust marks and that he made mistakes due to the bad lighting conditions he was working under," said Moira Whittle, the head of public relations for Reuters. 

"This represents a serious breach of Reuters' standards and we shall not be accepting or using pictures taken by him."

Hajj had worked for Reuters as a non-staff freelance, or contributing photographer, from 1993 until 2003 and again since April 2005. 

He was among several photographers from the main international news agencies whose images of a dead child being held up by a rescuer in the village of Qana, south Lebanon, after an Israeli air strike on July 30 have been challenged by blogs critical of the mainstream media's coverage of the Middle East conflict. 

Reuters and other news organisations reviewed those images from Qana and have all rejected allegations that the photographs were staged.


----------



## Infanteer (8 Aug 2006)

http://www.cbc.ca/story/world/national/2006/08/08/lebanon-proposal.html



> *Israel considers Lebanon's offer of troops along border*
> Last Updated Tue, 08 Aug 2006 06:06:26 EDT
> CBC News
> Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said Tuesday Israel is seriously considering a proposal by Lebanon in which 15,000 Lebanese troops would be deployed along the Israeli-Lebanon border to stand between Israel and Hezbollah.
> ...


----------



## Scoobie Newbie (8 Aug 2006)

A Lebonese (sp) media with some bias. Go figure.


----------



## cplcaldwell (8 Aug 2006)

RE: Israel considers Lebanon's offer of troops along border

This (i.e. Deploying the Lebanese army to the south) would seem to be not only the best solution but also the most workable. (IMHO). I don't think anyone believes that Lebanon should have another occupying army on its soil, whether UN, Israeli or Hezbollah.

It would also seem to be the most workable. With all the carry on about 'immediate cease fire' one has to ask 'well who controls the ground after the festivities end?' Really there can be only _three answers_, _Israel_, _Hezbollah_ or _Lebanon_ (unless I'm mistaken and someone somewhere has a corps (or so) to spare that can be deployed in a few days). So if the Israelis are out, because _they_ don't want to do it and because the Lebanese don't want them to do it the it must be Hezbollah or the Lebanese Army. 

Leaving the status quo (i.e Hezbollah controls the ground) is a non starter.

The most workable, but in the final analysis how workable is any of it? In the latter two cases it seems, unfortunately, to set the stage for a rather nasty civil war. Poor Lebanon, 'plus ca change, plus c'est le meme chose.'


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## tomahawk6 (8 Aug 2006)

The effectiveness of the Lebanese Army is in serious doubt not to mention its loyality. Military observers feel that there is no way the Lebanese Army is going to disarm Hizbollah. An international force would have to be very robust and aggressive to insure that Hizbollah disarmed, I dont think that will happen any time soon.
I dont think the Europeans have the stomach to take casualties because Hizbollah will fight rather than give up its militia.


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## Edward Campbell (8 Aug 2006)

Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act from today's _Globe and Mail_ ...


----------



## Infanteer (8 Aug 2006)

Worthwhile reading from the last few editions of the Economist:

http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=E1_STJPJVN



> Israel and Lebanon
> 
> The accidental war
> Jul 20th 2006
> ...



http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=E1_SNNPRPS



> Israel and Lebanon
> 
> Stuck in Lebanon
> Jul 27th 2006
> ...



http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=E1_SNVNJDS



> The Middle East
> 
> The war beyond the war
> Aug 3rd 2006
> ...


----------



## Infanteer (8 Aug 2006)

...and one more:



http://www.economist.com/world/displaystory.cfm?story_id=E1_SNGTJVP



> The Lebanese crisis
> 
> Trying in vain to find a way out
> Aug 3rd 2006 | BEIRUT, JERUSALEM AND NEW YORK
> ...


----------



## tomahawk6 (8 Aug 2006)

The French-US resolution has fallen apart as the French have decided to change direction and side with the arab position. Not a big surprise I suppose. The French are back to their old tricks.


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## Fishbone Jones (8 Aug 2006)

Next they'll be denying they had anything to do with it and the US forced them to do it :


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## tomahawk6 (8 Aug 2006)

News report.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,207454,00.html



> UNITED NATIONS — The French-American alliance at the United Nations over a Mideast cease-fire agreement is crumbling, sources tell FOX News.
> 
> The French U.N. delegation has joined with Arab nations and is now calling for a complete and immediate Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon as a condition of any cease-fire, the sources said.
> 
> In addition, the French have reportedly agreed with Arab demands that the Lebanese force be accompanied only by UNIFIL, with no international force to be deployed.


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## GAP (8 Aug 2006)

Looks like Israel will get the extra time it needs. The US will veto anything that is not going to solve the problem on a long term basis, and they will be damned morally and literally if they let Hezbollah get a PR win out of this.


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## paracowboy (8 Aug 2006)

Every smart Intelligence Operator reads the Economist. Y’know why? Because they have absolutely no political or religious agenda. They are intent on gathering every scrap of intelligence they can that will influence the marketplace. All they care about is money. And war is never good for business. (Arms merchants can profit in the short-term, but the damages to every other source of trade limits their profits.)

Nobody hates war more than a merchant. Which, incidentally, is why the morons on the world stage who accuse the U.S. of being war-mongering are, in fact, morons. The U.S. is the ultimate businessman.


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## Scoobie Newbie (8 Aug 2006)

para are you serious about being unbiased?


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## paracowboy (8 Aug 2006)

Quagmire said:
			
		

> para are you serious about being unbiased?


I'm very serious. Their only interest is in what is good for trade. And peace is good for trade. War disrupts commerce.


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## a_majoor (9 Aug 2006)

The Economist, like any magazine or newspaper, does indeed have "bias", as Paracowboy suggests they are pro business and in our terms "right of centre". On the other hand, it depends on where you stand, in the United States many people would say the Economist is "left of centre", reflecting the differences in British and American political culture. People who find Steven Harper "scary" would be hard pressed to discover very substancial differences between his domestic policies and American Democratic Party domestic policies (foreign affairs is a very different world, but the "scary" factor did not revolve around that in the past), even though the same people were probably hoping John Kerry would have been elected as POTUS.

Getting back to Lebanon, Hezbollah is busy on the 4GW front, this time attacking through the internet:

http://www.time.com/time/world/printout/0,8816,1224273,00.html



> *How Hizballah Hijacks the Internet*
> The group pops up on unwitting Web sites around the world in order to communicate, recruit and fundraise
> By HILARY HYLTON/AUSTIN
> 
> ...


----------



## Sask HCAO (9 Aug 2006)

JERUSALEM (CNN) -- Israel's Security Cabinet recommended Wednesday that the Israeli military expand its campaign against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. Israeli ground forces are now authorized to push up to the Litani River, 18 miles (29 kilometers) inside Lebanon, in an attempt to eliminate Hezbollah threats. Cabinet Minister Eli Yishai told The Associated Press the proposed operation was expected to take 30 days, although a U.N. cease-fire resolution is expected before then. The plan will go into effect once it is formally approved by Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Defense Minister Amir Peretz, according to a statement from Olmert's office.

The ministers are expected to sign off quickly on the plan, but the AP, citing an Israeli Security Cabinet minister, reported Israel's offensive would not begin for two or three days to allow time for further U.N. debate on a cease-fire resolution.It is unclear if the agreement allows Israel to call up more reservists. About 10,000 Israeli troops are on the ground in southern Lebanon, according to Israeli military analysts.

A dramatic troop deployment began early Wednesday along the Israeli-Lebanese border. Israeli tanks headed across the border as machine gun fire rattled the darkness. Heavy barrages of artillery, including rocket-propelled grenades and tank shells, fired from multiple Israeli locations. The Israel Defense Forces reported some casualties among its soldiers in heavy battles with Hezbollah fighters in the southern Lebanese towns of Aita Al-Shaab and Debel. Arabic-language networks are reporting the casualties include 11 deaths, but the IDF did not confirm that number. Meanwhile, diplomats still hoped for a vote Thursday on the U.N. resolution aimed at ending the conflict, but an Arab-backed proposal that calls for a full Israeli withdrawal threatened to tip "a very delicate balance" and set the process back again, a Bush administration official said.

Israeli helicopter gunships also took the fight to Lebanon's largest Palestinian refugee camp Wednesday.The attack on Ain El-Helwe camp in the port city of Sidon killed at least one person and wounded at least six, said Sultan Abu Alaynen, the head of Fatah in Lebanon.
Earlier, Israel attacked Ghaziye, also near Sidon, killing eight civilians and wounding more than 30, according to Lebanon's security forces.

Rescuers also scrambled to pull at least five bodies from the rubble of a three-story building in Mashghara in the Bekaa Valley after an Israeli airstrike leveled it, a Lebanese relief worker said. Later Wednesday, the Israeli military struck Beirut's southern suburb of Haret Hreik. Lebanese TV showed heavy smoke rising from the area. An Associated Press photographer at the scene said the strike hit a largely abandoned Hezbollah stronghold about a mile from where mourners were burying the dead from an earlier attack. About 400 people were in a funeral procession, the AP report said, with marchers chanting, "Death to America! Death to Israel!" after the strike.

Diplomatic maneuvering
At the United Nations, the timetable for an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon continued to be a sticking point in negotiations to end the fighting. Diplomats said U.N. Security Council members need to get "back on the same page" by an early enough time Wednesday to see a vote on a cease-fire resolution the following day. At issue was the Lebanese government's proposal to send 15,000 troops into southern Lebanon -- provided all of Israel's forces withdraw -- and to move a U.N. force into the disputed Shebaa Farms region, a sliver of land occupied by Israel that Lebanon claims but the United Nations has ruled belongs to Syria.

A diplomatic source familiar with the negotiations said that the French are pushing new language in the resolution taking the Arab concerns into account -- including specific text on the Shebaa Farms region. The source said the French are trying to redraft many parts of the resolution -- a move that makes U.S. officials nervous.

A Bush administration official keeping track of the U.N. developments said the White House is "sympathetic" to the concerns raised by an Arab delegation. But the official said, "We want a final product that has a reasonable chance of success." The United States is concerned the Lebanese army will be not able or willing to stop the resupply of Hezbollah and is not convinced that a bolstered U.N. peacekeeping force could do the trick either. The official added that Israel has "even stronger" views on the matter.

As of Wednesday, Israeli casualties in the conflict stand at 105 dead, including 38 civilians, and more than 700 wounded, according to the IDF. Lebanese security forces said that 800 people have died, most of them civilians, and nearly 3,135 have been wounded.


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## tomahawk6 (9 Aug 2006)

Fifteen Israeli soldiers killed today including 9 reserve paratroopers. Most were killed by anti-tank missiles.

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1154525834576&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull



> Nine reserve infantry soldiers from an elite unit were killed on Wednesday afternoon when an anti-tank missile was fired at the house they were stationed in during clashes with Hizbullah forces in the village of Dbil in the western sector of south Lebanon.


----------



## aluc (10 Aug 2006)

http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&c=Article&pubid=968163964505&cid=1155161413976&col=968705899037&call_page=TS_News&call_pageid=968332188492&call_pagepath=News/News



Just thought I'd throw this in here ... it piqued my interest.  We don't share a moment of silence for our fallen servicemen/ women, be it police, firemen, military....yet we should do this for a family who rarely lived here, yet chose to live in a country that had a travel warning imposed on it by our government.  :'(

Borough bans moment of silence
Move angers Montreal's Lebanese community
8 members of one family killed in Israeli attack
Aug. 10, 2006. 01:00 AM
DENE MOORE
CANADIAN PRESS

MONTREAL—Some members of Canada's largest Lebanese community are outraged after a borough council refused requests for a moment of silence to recognize the deaths of a Montreal family killed in the Israeli bombardment of southern Lebanon.

The mayor and council in Côte-des-Neiges/Notre-Dame-de-Grâce rejected two requests from the public to recognize the tragedy during their meeting earlier this week.

"It was refused for political reasons," said Wissam Moussa, a member of the Lebanese Muslim Youth Association who made one of two requests for a moment of silence.

Senator Marcel Prud'homme, a former Liberal MP with a long-standing interest in the Middle East, called it hypocrisy.

"I think it's unbelievably sad that (the council) did not see fit to keep a minute of silence," Prud'homme said.

But Mayor Michael Applebaum said yesterday the tragic deaths have been hijacked by Hezbollah supporters who are bringing the war home to Canadian soil.

"It was clearly political," Applebaum said, adding that a simple recognition of the nine members of the Al-Akhrass family wasn't the objective.

"We all believe there should be peace in the Middle East but it wasn't proposed in that manner."

The neighbourhood was home to Ali Al-Akhrass, 36, his wife Amira, 23, and their four children, Salam 11 months, Saja, 8, Zeinab, 6, and Ahmad, 4, who were all killed in Lebanon on July 16.

Ali Al-Akhrass' uncles Ali El-Akras, 70, and Ahmed Al-Akhrass, and Ahmed's wife, Haniya, were also killed when their home collapsed during bombing of the village of Aitraroun, near the Israeli border.

The council has held only one moment of silence in the past, a motion brought by a council member after the death of Pope John Paul II.

Canadian Press



> recognize the deaths of a Montreal family


  You mean a Lebonese family with a Canadian "get out of jail for free" passport.


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## a_majoor (10 Aug 2006)

From the Jerusalem Post:

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1154525841930&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull



> Comment: Not too late to win
> 
> 
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
> ...


----------



## tomahawk6 (10 Aug 2006)

Looks like a deal may have been cobbled together. I have to say any ceasefire now makes Israel look weak and ineffectual,not good when you are in a fight for your very existence. Hopefully Hizbollah wont agree. The Israelis were almost at the Litani on one axis of their advance when they got the order to stop.

http://haaretz.com/hasen/spages/749019.html



> "The breakthrough is based on the inclusion in the call for a cessation of hostilities for a progressive Israeli withdrawal from Lebanese territory to go simultaneously with the deployment of the Lebanese army backed by reinforced UN peacekeepers."
> 
> The source said the peacekeepers would mainly be reinforced by French soldiers. As part of the deal, Hezbollah would pull out from south of the Litani river.


----------



## Infanteer (11 Aug 2006)

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> I have to say any ceasefire now makes Israel look weak and ineffectual, not good when you are in a fight for your very existence. Hopefully Hizbollah wont agree. The Israelis were almost at the Litani on one axis of their advance when they got the order to stop.



I hardly think it is a literal "fight for their existence" - Hezbollah is not going to overwhelm Israel and the IDF any time soon.

In the end, it may be better for Israel; the last time they advanced into Lebanon for what Prime Minister Begin (a military lightweight like Olmert) said would be a short campaign ended in a 18-year guerrilla war that led to the creation Hezbollah (and subsequently Hamas) and probably caused irreparable harm to Israel's political (think Sabra/Shantila) and military reputation (the 2000 pull-out was seen as a victory by its foes).   Hopefully, with what amounts to a bloody draw, a bit of the legitimacy of the Lebanese government can be preserved and a regional conflagration can be averted.


----------



## Bruce Monkhouse (11 Aug 2006)

I agree, maybe the locals might think that having Hezbollah hanging around isn't that great at all.........and if Hezbollah tries to re-arm, the trail should be easier to spot right now..............Iran anybody?


----------



## paracowboy (11 Aug 2006)

for all we know, they may have met their goals by bringing in a third party. We really don't know what the over-all strategic goal of Israel was. If they had one.


----------



## tomahawk6 (11 Aug 2006)

If they launched attacks into Lebanon with no strategic goal then they made a serious mistake. You dont begin military operations without a clear mission statement.


----------



## nowhere_man (11 Aug 2006)

I just found this on CTV dunno if it was posed already but it shocked me. http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20060719/mideast_hezbollah_060719/20060721/
Now I'm not so shocked that there are people out there who are supporting them but the picture at the top suprises me. I'm pretty sure doing a heil is not acceptable from anyone especially a "legal militant group". It makes me mad that people stick up for a group of radicals that see nothing wrong with doing the Nazi salute.


----------



## cplcaldwell (11 Aug 2006)

It seems for this to end there must be a shake up in several places. 

Since we are talking about the protagonists, here an article on Emile Lahoud, Lebanon's president from today's Globe and Mail. 

Interesting that Shaikh Nasrullah seems to have more power than the President eh?

Oh and as final BTW, the G&M recently did a piece on Micheal Aoun.  

Some thoughts, if Hezbollah has to disarm, where does that leave Nasrullah? If Lebanon has to step up to the plate where does that leave Lahoud? And whither Aoun?

Coming soon, Nabih Beri!

_<*edit:* removed references to wiki>_


----------



## paracowboy (11 Aug 2006)

Wikipedia is not considered to be a valid source to cite 'round these parts.


----------



## tomahawk6 (11 Aug 2006)

The Shia are a minority in Lebanon and many have simply moved into Syria, where the current government is a Shia minority as well. The movement of a million Shia into Syria may not be seen very favorably. One way to distablize Syria I suppose.

The Litani river will make a decent boundary that can be secured by Israel and later an international force.
The Lebanese Army is very heavily Shia and would not be a very effective force in keeping Hizbollah out. Of course all this will be moot if Hizbollah is rearmed with long range rockets from Iran.


----------



## nowhere_man (11 Aug 2006)

Note in the G&M article how he didn't think of using the 70,000 members of the army to try and stop Hezbollah. He only thought it would be dumb to go against the Israeli army.


----------



## Infanteer (11 Aug 2006)

A promising sign, but the proof will be in how the UNFIL force is stuctured.  Solid military forces with a robust Chapter VII mission will be required to ensure that Hezbollah is disarmed.  Israel and the IDF cannot afford to accept anything less.  Let us see how this pans out....

http://www.cbc.ca/story/world/national/2006/08/11/mideast-fighting.html



> *Israeli PM accepts UN ceasefire proposal*
> Last Updated Fri, 11 Aug 2006 18:10:35 EDT
> CBC News
> Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has accepted a UN ceasefire draft resolution that calls for the immediate and full cessation of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah militants.
> ...


----------



## tomahawk6 (11 Aug 2006)

This article shows how screwed up the decision making process was/is.

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1154525851147&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull



> Something about the drama emanating from the Prime Minister's Office Wednesday afternoon, when the security cabinet debated sending ground troops north to the Litani River, didn't seem quite right.
> 
> Here we were, fully four weeks after the start of the war against the Hizbullah, following an initial period of unprecedented domestic support and a long diplomatic rope the US gave Israel to deliver the Hizbullah a stinging stripe, and only now was the security cabinet dealing with Defense Ministry and IDF plans to take the ground operation to the Litani River and beyond.
> 
> ...





> Outside the loop, however, there was simply bewilderment. "I don't know," Eiland replied when asked why the government waited so long to approve a wider operation.
> 
> And then Eiland, a sharp critic of how key decisions are made at the government's top levels, added an observation that called into question the whole decision-making process. "The wrong way to solve problems or to manage conflicts in the 21st century is to say, 'OK, we are the political echelon, and we will wait to see whether the army has new proposals and plans that they want us to approve. We are waiting until they come to present them to us.'"
> 
> ...


----------



## couchcommander (11 Aug 2006)

The resolution itself:

http://us.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/meast/08/11/un.draft/index.html

Something I found interesting:



> OP12. Acting in support of a request from the government of Lebanon to deploy an international force to assist it to exercise its authority throughout the territory, *authorizes UNIFIL to take all necessary action in areas of deployment of its forces and as it deems within its capabilities, to ensure that its area of operations is not utilized for hostile activities of any kind, to resist attempts by forceful means to prevent it from discharging its duties under the mandate of the Security Council*, and to protect United Nations personnel, facilities, installations and equipment, ensure the security and freedom of movement of United Nations personnel, humanitarian workers, and, without prejudice to the responsibility of the government of Lebanon, to protect civilians under imminent threat of physical violence;



What are your opinions as to whether or not this would actually result in the UN force being able to keep hezballah from firing rockets and/or launching raids on the Israeli border?


----------



## tomahawk6 (11 Aug 2006)

If the French run UNIFIL then the odds are great that Hizbollah will have free reign.


----------



## GAP (11 Aug 2006)

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> If the French run UNIFIL then the odds are great that Hizbollah will have free reign.



Then the French need to be very careful, becasuse I don't think Israel will hesitate even if they get in the way.


----------



## Smurfjet (11 Aug 2006)

Octavianus said:
			
		

> *...yet we should do this for a family who rarely lived here...*



Octavianus you care to back you statement up with facts please?


----------



## Scoobie Newbie (12 Aug 2006)

I have a feeling the Israel is crazy/desperate enough to go through the States given enough provocation.  I can't wait for the cries from the NDP and Liberals as to when we are commiting assets to such a noble and worthy cause.


----------



## tomahawk6 (12 Aug 2006)

The only way I see UNIFIL working is if a couple of US brigades were part of the force under a US commander.


----------



## vonGarvin (12 Aug 2006)

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> The only way I see UNIFIL working is if a couple of US brigades were part of the force under a US commander.


Militarily, yes.  Politically, no.  For in the eyes of many "over there" Israel=USA and USA=Israel.  
Personally, I don't see UNIFIL working.  The only force that can stop Hezbollah from launching rockets is the IDF.  Were it up to me, I would NOT put UNIFIL on the job.  I feel that this will only give Hezbollah "more time" to regroup: I'm sure that that IDF took a chunk out of them, but they aren't defeated.  If anything, our Birkenstock Brigades (over here) have conveniently forgotten that Hezbollah deliberately targets non-combatants whilst the IDF kills non-combatants due mostly in part to Hezbollah parking their launchers next to Baby Milk Factories, etc.


----------



## tomahawk6 (12 Aug 2006)

Israel has asked for an immediate shipment of M26 rockets for their MRLS. This will be the best counterbattery response to future rocket attacks. These grenade size sub munitions will probably cause collateral damage but will also get the rocket launcher before it can scoot.


----------



## armyvern (12 Aug 2006)

Which is exactly why, politicly, a couple of US brigades being involved in this will not work in the long run. Any 'honest brokers' involved have to be impartial to both sides if anything that happens is ever going to succeed for the long term.


----------



## jt_medic (12 Aug 2006)

http://video.google.ca/videoplay?docid=-7828123714384920696&q=peace%2C+propaganda

A friend sent me this this link, watch this video. It might be long but it gives you alot of info, don't trust everything you see in the news...


----------



## paracowboy (12 Aug 2006)

Smurfjet said:
			
		

> Octavianus you care to back you statement up with facts please?


you care to fill out your profile, please?


----------



## paracowboy (12 Aug 2006)

jt_medic said:
			
		

> http://video.google.ca/videoplay?docid=-7828123714384920696&q=peace%2C+propaganda
> 
> A friend sent me this this link, watch this video. It might be long but it gives you alot of info, don't trust everything you see in the news...


it's been/being discussed elsewhere on these boards. Same damn forum, in fact. Attention to detail is good.


----------



## tomahawk6 (12 Aug 2006)

I dont see the French as honest brokers. They have run UNIFIL right ?


----------



## paracowboy (12 Aug 2006)

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> I dont see the French as honest brokers.


they are not. Not in any way when dealing with the Middle East. If anything, I see them acting as enablers for Hezbollah, rather than merely continuing to act as cheerleaders.


----------



## Infanteer (12 Aug 2006)

Personally, I don't see the US as being effective either; yet another US force deployed to a Muslim country would only get the AQ machine running on full blast about crusader invasions and turn South Lebanon into Al-Anbar II (again, since that's what happened their 1982-2000).

Despite all the French foreign policy expertise here which seems willing to write a French military committment off before it gets off the ground, it may be our only recourse.  Who else can undertake this?  A US would most likely inflame the situation.  The British seem quite extended right now, and I think they'd get pegged with Iraq as well.  This seems like a mission in which a Canadian or Australian force would be great for, but both are small and deeply committed elsewhere.  I'm sure we can put Banglesdishis, Nigerians, and Estonians there, but how effective are they going to be, especially against an organized force like Hezbollah?

American military presence isn't going to be the only thing to solve the regions problems; as far as "eurorentals" go, France is probably the best bet....


----------



## honestyrules (12 Aug 2006)

> OP12. Acting in support of a request from the government of Lebanon to deploy an international force to assist it to exercise its authority throughout the territory, authorizes UNIFIL to take all necessary action in areas of deployment of its forces and as it deems within its capabilities, to ensure that its area of operations is not utilized for hostile activities of any kind, to resist attempts by forceful means to prevent it from discharging its duties under the mandate of the Security Council, and to protect United Nations personnel, facilities, installations and equipment, ensure the security and freedom of movement of United Nations personnel, humanitarian workers, and, without prejudice to the responsibility of the government of Lebanon, to protect civilians under imminent threat of physical violence;



I didn't see any mention of a "chap.7" in the resolution. Is there such thing as a "robust" chap.6?
Or would it be a new Golan height? What previous mission this one seems to compare to (if both parties agree)?


----------



## Scoobie Newbie (12 Aug 2006)

Turkey?
Germany?


----------



## armyvern (12 Aug 2006)

> to take all necessary action in areas of deployment of its forces and as it deems within its capabilities, to ensure that its area of operations is not utilized for hostile activities of any kind, to resist attempts by forceful means to prevent it from discharging its duties under the mandate of the Security Council



This statement right here shows that, at least on paper, it's not going to be another Golan Heights. We were not authorized any of the above "capabilities" to discharge the UN mandate in the Golan.


----------



## tomahawk6 (12 Aug 2006)

Correct no Chap 7 authority. I think this resolution is designed to smoke out Hizbollah. No way they are going to abide by the resolution. In fact Nasrallah wants the resolution modified. Not going to happen. Lebanon is not radicalized, outside the Shia community, against the US. In fact a US presence may be seen as a good thing for the Sunni,Druze and Chritian communities. I think the US is stretched pretty thin but we could sustain a couple of brigades as we drawdown forces in Iraq.

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=JPost/JPArticle/ShowFull&cid=1154525858147


----------



## cplcaldwell (12 Aug 2006)

Seems to me, talking about the French, and talking about UNIFIL, that the Commander of UNIFIL is currently a chap by handle of MGen Alain Pellegrini.

Perhaps some Bosnia vets will remember this fellow from 95'ish in Sarajevo and Mostar.  :


----------



## paracowboy (12 Aug 2006)

no, I agree with Infy that the US has to stay out of it, beyond CSS. Any American soldiers on the ground would just play into the enemy's hands on the global scale. France would be the best bet, IF they're honestly going to enforce a neutral stance.

But they won't. There were hundreds of French citizens fighting against Israel in the '80s. Their pay? A pack of smokes and a meal a day. The French government is vehemently anti-Israel, and pro-Anybody-*But*-Western-Democracies in the Middle East power struggle. This ain't gonna end well. I see Israeli soldiers killin' French soldiers, the UN further damning Israel, and setting back the entire war against whatever-title-we've-decided-to-give-the-Islamonutjobs.


----------



## tamouh (12 Aug 2006)

Combination os Syrian and UN forces should fix the problem. They demonstrated good control over Hezbollah before their withdrawal, and they've controlled the Golan height border pretty well. 

It also puts Syria in a responsible position in the event Hezbollah initiate any attacks. But I don't think Syria nor Israel would agree to my proposal


----------



## Infanteer (12 Aug 2006)

paracowboy said:
			
		

> But they won't.



We'll have to see how the cards fall; I can see the French, due to domestic politics, seeing an interest in shutting down militant Islam.

My worries are more on the technical side; all the guys here who worked ISAF were quite frank in their observations on the "Eurorentals".  Someone mentioned the IDF being the only military capable of dealing with Hezbollah - to an extent, yes; Israel knows (or at least now remembers) how ruthless and capable Hezbollah can be - I can't see the antics that were in Kabul being effective against such a determined force.


----------



## Kat Stevens (12 Aug 2006)

Libyans.  Just set a few missile cruisers steaming around offshore, as an incentive to play nice.   ;D

edited to add:  Offshore of Libya, that is... give Moamar a reason to stay onside.


----------



## Infanteer (12 Aug 2006)

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> Lebanon is not radicalized, outside the Shia community, against the US. In fact a US presence may be seen as a good thing for the Sunni,Druze and Chritian communities.



 ???

http://www.jamestown.org/terrorism/news/article.php?articleid=2370093



> The Sunni al-Fajr Forces Fight with Hezbollah in Lebanon
> 
> By Abdul Hameed Bakier
> 
> ...






			
				tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> I think the US is stretched pretty thin but we could sustain a couple of brigades as we drawdown forces in Iraq.



Oh, you're not being facetious.  Do you really think that America, with its relationship with Israel, it's position in Iraq, and it's all time low popularity amongst most Arab/Muslim countries, is going to help things by going into Lebanon.  Hezbollah is riding high and has a lot of cred right now in the Arab world; having US engage it seems counterproductive right now - as well, an Iranian-backed Hezbollah would probably make Ansar al-Sunna look like amateurs.  You don't see Al-Anbar II written all over the wall???


----------



## paracowboy (12 Aug 2006)

I think France's problems with their indigent Muslim population as being one of the many reasons they won't enforce the neutrality. 

If they send the Legion, with strict orders to ignore the cowardice and treachery of the Vichy French Gov't, then maybe. The Legion has the stones to kick back at either Israel or Hezbollah, or anyone else who crosses them, and the professionalism to be able to do it well.


----------



## cplcaldwell (12 Aug 2006)

It does not seem unreasonable that Jamaa Islamiya would resurrect their armed wing fight with Hezbollah if it seems advantageous. After all remember the founder of Jamaa Islamiya is the lovely and talented Omar Abdel Rahman, currently a guest of the American Republic at one of their finest 'super max' prisons for the next, oh, lifetime or two.

Shaikh Nasrullah of Hezbollah has often declared a 'raison d'etre' for Hezbollah is the release of prisoners associated with his ilk from foreign prisons. Often this is taken to mean Israeli prisons, but he has, more than once, named Abdel-Rahman specifically as being among this group.

Their is more than a passing affinity between Jamaa Islamiya and Hezbollah. 

Now I now they renounced violence a while ago but consider Jamaa Islamiya's efficiency at Luxor in 1997 (and many others). As well as just as late that this month(?) good ole Ayman al Zawahiri (you may remember him for his past hits such as 9/11, Madrid Train Bombings and who could forget, the London Subway (7/7)) announced a 'new business partnership' with Jamaa Islamiya, this could be a nasty three way party.

Hezbollah, a renewedly violent Jamaa Islamiya and al Qaeda. hmmm yup, Ansar al Sunna is looking pretty light in the bullpen about now.....


----------



## Infanteer (12 Aug 2006)

Don't confuse "Jamma Islamiya" of Lebanon with others.  _Jamaat al Islamiya_ is a transliteration of "Islamic Group" and is pretty generic.  There are about 4 or 5 Muji organizations that go by this title (Egypt's, which has recently been resuscitated after being taken apart for the Luxor massacre; Lebanon, Pakistan, and Indonesia to name a few).

These guys are quite unoriginal when you consider that must of these groups are pretty creative with their names (Sword of the Prophet, Defenders of the Sunnah).


----------



## cplcaldwell (12 Aug 2006)

Infanteer: You may in fact be quite right. Sorry I _do_ become quite confused with all the organizations and could very well be off the mark on that one. _Drat, I thought I had it all figgered out!_

At any rate I stand, either to be corrected, or corrected, as the case may be, on which Jamaa Islamiya we are talking about. 

At any rate, Nasrullah's admiration for Abdel Rahman, Jamaa Islamiya (of Eqypt's) nastiness, and al Qaeda's new alliance with Jamaa Islamiya (of Egypt?) are (IMHO) pretty clear. 

At any rate, the battle field, despite my best efforts is still a mess, call in the Artillery...


----------



## tomahawk6 (12 Aug 2006)

> Quote from: tomahawk6 on Today at 12:17:31
> I think the US is stretched pretty thin but we could sustain a couple of brigades as we drawdown forces in Iraq.
> 
> Oh, you're not being facetious.  Do you really think that America, with its relationship with Israel, it's position in Iraq, and it's all time low popularity amongst most Arab/Muslim countries, is going to help things by going into Lebanon.  Hezbollah is riding high and has a lot of cred right now in the Arab world; having US engage it seems counterproductive right now - as well, an Iranian-backed Hezbollah would probably make Ansar al-Sunna look like amateurs.  You don't see Al-Anbar II written all over the wall???



Despite the obvious negatives the US would be one party that would keep Hizbollah out of the area below the Litani. Few other countries have both the military capability and will do perform the mission. That said do I expect the US to deploy a couple of brigades as part of UNIFIL ? No. Do I expect UNIFIL to keep Hizbollah out of southern Lebanon ? No.


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## George Wallace (12 Aug 2006)

Infanteer said:
			
		

> Don't confuse "Jamma Islamiya" of Lebanon with others.  _Jamaat al Islamiya_ is a transliteration of "Islamic Group" and is pretty generic.  There are about 4 or 5 Muji organizations that go by this title (Egypt's, which has recently been resuscitated after being taken apart for the Luxor massacre; Lebanon, Pakistan, and Indonesia to name a few).



You caught me by surprise, I took a "too quick a glance" at that.  I was wondering how the Jemaah Islamiyah in the Philipines became involved.  There are al-Qaida-linked groups like Moro Islamic Liberation Front, Abu Sayyaf and Jemaah Islamiyah found in the Philippines. 

So, yes it is important to be clear which group is which.  I was temporarily thinking of things half a world away.  Would have really added to the confusion.


----------



## paracowboy (12 Aug 2006)

George Wallace said:
			
		

> There are al-Qaida-linked groups like Moro Islamic Liberation Front, Abu Sayyaf and Jemaah Islamiyah found in the Philippines.


named for Abdul Rasul Sayyaf, by the way. Look him up, and see where he is, what he's doing now, and just exactly who's been dealing with him, rather blowing a hole in his forehead.  :


----------



## Scoobie Newbie (13 Aug 2006)

http://www.macleans.ca/topstories/news/shownews.jsp?content=w080757A

August 7, 2006 - 19:15

Captured Hezbollah guerrilla says he trained in Iran, took part in other raid

SARAH EL DEEB

JERUSALEM (AP) - Israel's army released a video Monday purporting to show the interrogation of a Hezbollah fighter acknowledging his part in the raid on an Israeli army patrol July 12, the spark that ignited the current conflict in Lebanon.

In the video, Hussein Ali Suleiman, 22, said the seizure of the two Israelis was the second time he had taken part in such an attempt, following an unsuccessful raid in 2005. He also spoke about training in Iran.

The tape shown on Israeli television appeared to be heavily edited, and some answers were cut off in mid-sentence. He appeared to have light bruises or wounds on his cheeks and lips.

Israel announced his capture Sunday, although it was not clear when he fell into Israeli hands. Separate television footage showed him in the custody of soldiers in the field with his arms bound and a large cloth covering his eyes.

In the video, Suleiman said he joined the Islamic militia when he was 15 and received four rounds of training before he took part in an attempt to seize Israeli soldiers.

Israel says Hezbollah has tried repeatedly to capture Israelis to barter for the release of prisoners from Israeli jails. In early 2004, Hezbollah swapped an Israeli businessman kidnapped in Europe and the bodies of three Israeli soldiers for hundreds of Arab prisoners and scores of guerrilla corpses.

Speaking in Arabic, Suleiman told his interrogators he attended military manoeuvres in Iran with 40 or 50 other Hezbollah guerrillas in 2003. He gave no details on the parts of the tape made public.

He said the trainees drove from Beirut to the Syrian capital, Damascus, in Hezbollah cars and from there took a special flight to Iran without passing through passport control.

Suleiman said his first operation was in late 2005, apparently an attempt to take Israeli prisoners. His task was to manage anti-tank missiles.

Asked if the operation failed, he said: "It had other aims. The main aim didn't go well, but the secondary aim was to direct a severe blow to the (Israeli) posts."

The tape showed Suleiman speaking briefly about the July 12 cross-border operation in which his unit killed three Israelis and took two others with them to Lebanon. His job was to cut the access routes to the patrol, he said before the tape abruptly cut off.

In 1998, Suleiman said he attended night school for 1 1/2 months, a "soldiers course" that involved classes in Islamic law and jurisprudence.

He said he received his next training after Israel ended its 18-year occupation of south Lebanon in 2000, a 45-day "fighter" course that involved weapons training, sabotage and communications. Four months later, he trained on anti-tank weapons and underwent more training several months later.


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## tomahawk6 (13 Aug 2006)

Dont expect a ceasefire Monday morning. The Lebanese cabinet has put off its meeting to discuss implementation issues because they are having difficulty getting Hizbollah on board. Today over 200 rockets were fired into Israel and one should expect more on Monday. Hizbollah doesnt want to disarm nor do they want to pullout of southern Lebanon. If the Lebanese cabinet doesnt implement the UN resolution expect Israel to move from the Litani into the Bekaa.

http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/meast/08/13/mideast.main/index.html?section=cnn_topstories


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## The Bread Guy (13 Aug 2006)

....especially given the positions we hear via the media:

''Israeli forces will withdraw from southern Lebanon *only when the Lebanese army and the International peacekeeping forces are deployed*, Israel's Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni said on Sunday. ''
http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200608/14/eng20060814_292779.html

"Hezbollah leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah said on Saturday the militant organization would abide by the U.N. cease-fire resolution but *would keep fighting as long as Israeli troops remained in southern Lebanon.* "
http://www.forbes.com/home/feeds/ap/2006/08/12/ap2945357.html


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## zipperhead_cop (14 Aug 2006)

Hey, come on!  They aren't called the *United* Nations for nothing.  Once they put their minds to a task, boy howdee, they git 'er done!  ISAF deployed by Friday at the latest.  No?   :


----------



## geo (14 Aug 2006)

Far as I know, they haven't finished determining who will compose the intervention force that is expected to stand between Hezbolah & Israel.  And if you think the Lebanese "army" is up to the task - think again, they have avoided the southern part of their own country for years - because Hezbolah was there.....

1st incident on Monday: IDF fired on a Hezbolah guerilla preparing to fire on an Israeli - RIP.


----------



## zipperhead_cop (14 Aug 2006)

Yeah, I wonder if there is an established record for the fasted failed cease fire?


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## Cloud Cover (14 Aug 2006)

The Lebanese army will not deploy unless Hizbollah disarms.

The Lebanese ambassador to the UN says the Lebanese army will not disarm Hizbollah, rather Hizbollah must disarm voluntarily.

Hizbollah says it will not disarm. 

That leaves exactly who to disarm Hizbollah? The UN?  

From the Jerusalem Post:


'LAF to deploy in South within 72 hours'


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ap and jpost.com staff, THE JERUSALEM POST  Aug. 14, 2006 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Lebanon's communications minister told French radio Monday that the Lebanese army was preparing to cross the Litani River into the troubled south within two or three days, despite uncertainty about a future UN force for the region. 

"The Lebanese army is readying itself along the Litani to cross the river in 48 or 72 hours," Marwan Hamade said on Europe-1 radio. 

It will then be flanked by "the first contingents of an international force," he added, likely from France, Turkey, Spain and Italy. He did not give a timeframe. 

He spoke shortly after a UN-imposed cease-fire went into effect across the region, halting a month of fighting. 

The UN Security Council approved a hard-fought resolution Friday calling for the cease-fire and deployment of 15,000 Lebanese troops and 15,000 UN peacekeepers in a 30-kilometer (18-mile) zone between the Litani River and the contested Lebanese-Israeli border. Some 2,000 UN troops already monitor the region. 

But implementation of the resolution was in question after the Lebanese Cabinet on Sunday indefinitely postponed a crucial meeting dealing with plans for the deployment. Lebanese media reported that the Cabinet was sharply divided over demands that Hizbullah surrender its weapons in the south.  
Hamade said the Lebanese government would try Monday to find a "formula" for implementing the resolution. 

Lebanon's ambassador to the UN said that his government would not use force to ensure the dismantling of Hizbullah, sources said early Monday morning.  
He claimed that Hizbullah would independently be responsible for leaving south Lebanon. "We could have completed a cease-fire by Sunday morning, but Israel insisted on destroying the essence of Lebanon," the ambassador commented while being interviewed by CNN. 

Earlier, another Lebanese cabinet minister said that the Lebanese army would not deploy in southen Lebanon if Hizbullah retains its weapons. 

"The army will not deploy in the south unless there are no arms in the south except those of a legitimate military force and UNIFIL," the minister said.  
Hizbullah, however, has resisted calls to disarm and its refusal to follow through threatened the deal. 

A top aide to Prime Minister Fuad Saniora said the cabinet meeting had been indefinitely postponed but would give no reason.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

This article can also be read at http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1154525869073&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

[ Back to the Article ]


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Copyright 1995-2006 The Jerusalem Post - http://www.jpost.com/


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## zipperhead_cop (14 Aug 2006)

"We could have completed a cease-fire by Sunday morning, but Israel insisted on destroying the essence of Lebanon,"

So the "essence" of Lebanon is weapons bunkers and Hezbollah strongholds?


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## geo (14 Aug 2006)

> The Lebanese army will not deploy unless Hizbollah disarms.
> 
> The Lebanese ambassador to the UN says the Lebanese army will not disarm Hizbollah, rather Hizbollah must disarm voluntarily.



Guess the Lebanese army knows which side of the slice of bread is buttered AND given that the Lebanese gov't has steadfastly refused to get a grip on their own territory, the army would be insane to take the initiative and attempt to control the area.


----------



## Cloud Cover (14 Aug 2006)

IMO even the Lebanese army soldiers who want to make this work simply cannot do much anyway- Hizbollah will put the squeeze or the knife to  their families.


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## The Bread Guy (14 Aug 2006)

A bit of an account of being on the receiving end of an anti-tank rocket, shared in accordance with the "fair dealing" provisions, Section 29, of the Copyright Act - http://www.cb-cda.gc.ca/info/act-e.html#rid-33409

*Analysis: Anti-tank rockets menace Israelis*
Joshua Brilliant, United Press Int'l, 14 Aug 06
http://www.washtimes.com/upi/20060811-112728-3564r.htm

One can easily distinguish between soldiers and civilians lying in Haifa's Rambam Hospital. 
      The pajamas are the same and age is not necessarily an indication since the soldiers wounded in Lebanon include reservists. But while the civilians are often alone, the soldiers are surrounded by family, friends, and comrades who are sometimes in arms. 
      Those whose injuries are lighter might be out of bed visiting comrades hospitalized in other rooms. 
      Gray haired, pot-bellied men who had served in the Golani infantry brigade some 40 years ago this week made the rounds, giving wounded soldiers sweets, chocolates and t-shirts with an olive tree printed on them. The olive tree is Golani's emblem. One of the soldiers hung the brigade's yellow-green flag on a beam over his bed. 
      In another room, 35-year-old paratrooper in the reserves Gadi Waisman recalled how he was wounded Wednesday morning in Taibeh, in the eastern sector of southern Lebanon. 
      The interview was interrupted when sirens blared, warning of a rocket attack, but the visitors stayed in the room with Waisman and another soldier whose bed was near the window. No rocket fell within earshot and two minutes later it was clear the imminent danger was over. 
      Waisman said his unit had moved into a house at night, and posted a guard who was supposed to look out for enemy gunmen. 
      Hezbollah spotted them first and fired two anti-tank rockets through the windows, killing the guard and wounding seven soldiers in a nearby room. 
      "Maybe we made too much noise," Waisman suggested. 
      In the hospital's ground floor shopping area a family was with Michael, a 19-year-old tank gunner. 
      Michael, who declined to give his full name, had a bloodshot eye, bandages wrapped his left arm and leg and plaster covering his nose. 
      A rocket hit his tank en route to Bint Jbail and sent shrapnel flying inside. Michael recalled the blast, smoke, noise and flying shrapnel. 
      Fire, he was asked? 
      "I saw something yellow. I don't know what it was. We were busy getting out. We didn't pay attention," he said. "I knew they have people with RPGs (rocket propelled grenades) and missiles but... we didn't know the had RPG or anti-tank squads there. We thought they would come from another direction and when we stopped firing they suddenly emerged from the side." 
      Hezbollah guerrillas have been firing an array of anti tank rockets. One, two or three people can fire them from close ranges of a few dozen meters and up to five or six kilometers away, the head of the Armored Corps Brig. Gen. Halutz Yerudoi Friday told Israel's Channel 2 TV. 
      The missiles include the RPG-29 that Russia recently sold Syria. It has a tandem warhead. The first explosion is supposed to blow away the tank's protective shield and the second penetrates it. 
      Israeli intelligence knew the types of the anti-tank missiles sent to Hezbollah. "We were surprised by the quantity of missiles, not by their types," Yerudoi said. 
      Hezbollah seems to be in a unique position. It is "very much like an Iranian division," according to intelligence Brig. Gen. Yossi Kupperwasser. It has communications systems, logistics units, anti-tank units and close artillery support, he said. 
      Its weapons are in quantities befitting an army but it operates like a guerrilla force, noted reserve Col. Eitan Azani, a senior researcher at the International Policy Institute for Counter Terrorism in Herzliya. 
      They hide in well-camouflaged underground bunkers or in fields where they that have food, water, ammunition and, in the bunkers, electricity. 
      When the Israelis arrived, they waited for the area to calm down and then emerged to search for Israel's weak spots, fire at them, and slip again out of sight if they could do so before the Israelis, backed by air surveillance systems, targeted them. The Israelis hit them sometimes with light arms and other times with tank and air power. 
      The army provides no exact figures on the number of tanks Hezbollah has hit. Yerudoi said Israel has hundreds of locally-made Merkava tanks in Lebanon; a few "tens" were hit and fewer than 10 were damaged. 
      Haaretz newspaper said that rockets and explosive charges severely damaged "more than 20 tanks" and that several tanks were totally destroyed. 
      By Friday afternoon 84 soldiers had been killed and some 300 wounded, the army spokesman reported. According to the army's chief surgeon, Brig. Gen. Chezy Levy, many injuries are from missiles and explosive charges. Compared with the injuries in the 1973 war with Egypt and Syria, the 1982 war in Lebanon and the 2002 fighting in the West Bank, "we see new things, very intensive injuries." However, there are not many bullet wounds, he said. 
      The extensive and effective use of rockets and missiles, which Israel has failed to stop in a month of fighting, has made an impact on Israel's enemies. 
      "All the players here sit and watch the other side," Azani said. Hezbollah has been transferring know-how to Hamas and Islamic Jihad, who will also try to benefit from the weak spots the Lebanese militia have discovered. 
      Haaretz quoted a member of Fatah's al-Aksa brigades in Bethlehem, identified only as Muayen, who said: "The brothers in the Deheishe refugee camp are no longer interested in games with Kalashnikov (assault rifles); they want anti-tank rockets... When this technology arrives, how difficult would it be for one of the fighters to sit on the Palestinian side of the wall (the security barrier) at Abu Dis and fire a rocket at the King David Hotel (in Jewish west Jerusalem)? With less effort than a suicide bombing or shooting one can fire a missile and get the same results." 
      Azani told United Press International he anticipated a Palestinian attempt to emulate Hezbollah, although he did not believe the Palestinians would be as successful. 
      Hezbollah had six years to prepare for a conflict and received extensive help from Iran and Syria, while Lebanon provided the territory. 
      Hamas cannot produce missiles that are among the most advanced weapons modern armies have, Azani continued. Israel surrounds the West Bank, Egypt will not allow such weapons through its territory to the Palestinians, and the Israeli navy patrols Gaza's coast. The quantities that could be smuggled to the Palestinians would not be big enough to change the overall picture, he predicted. 
      In the meantime, Israeli infantrymen change the houses in which they stay. Officers analyze the battles so tank crews can amend their tactics. "We learn 10 times quicker than they," boasted Staff Sgt. Eran Blumberg, a tank commander in the reserves. 
      The army is likely to devote more time and money to training its reservists, something it has curtailed in recent years, as the main threat was coping with the Palestinian intifada. Scientists are developing new weapons to cope with anti-tank missiles. One project unveiled this year envisaged the release of very hot particles to melt a missile. 
      Yiftah Shapir, of the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies, said solutions "are known technologically and the prototypes are beginning to appear." There will be anti-missile-missiles for tanks to fire, but it will take five to 10 years for the technology to be available. 
      The tanks' days are not over yet, he said.


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## Spartan (15 Aug 2006)

I've been trying to figure this out since the beginning of this affair and subsequent "ceasefire" came into effect. How can the UN negotiate a ceasefire agreement with a nonstate entity? Does this not then give some legitimacy to the organization that is Hezbollah? I understand that there is much "dividedness" and political unwill for Lebanon to take action, but this I think sets precedance on a global scale that can only lead to really bad things occuring.


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## tomahawk6 (15 Aug 2006)

Probably why Israel held Lebanon responsible for Hizbollah attacks. Hizbollah seems to have veto power over the cabinet. Minority rule because the majority wont fight.


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## The Bread Guy (15 Aug 2006)

Although the UN res'n
http://daccessdds.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/N06/465/03/PDF/N0646503.pdf?OpenElement

calls for Hezbollah and ISR to stop shooting, so to speak, it appears to put the ball in Lebanon's court (with help from UN forces)....

"Emphasizes the importance of the extension of the control of the Government of Lebanon over all Lebanese territory in accordance with the provisions of resolution 1559 (2004) and resolution 1680 (2006), and of the relevant provisions of the Taif Accords, for it to exercise its full sovereignty, so that there will be no weapons without the consent of the Government of Lebanon and no authority other than that of the Government of Lebanon...."

Also, later in the res'n

"Calls for* Israel and Lebanon * to support a permanent ceasefire and a longterm solution...."

I stand to be corrected, but sounds like it'll be up to the Gov't of LBN to keep a grip on Hezbollah - sure worked well in the past  

FYI, here's Kofi's follow-up tasks, requested by the Secur Council:
"Requests the Secretary-General to develop, in liaison with relevant international actors and the concerned parties, proposals to implement the relevant provisions of the Taif Accords, and resolutions 1559 (2004) and 1680 (2006), including disarmament, and for delineation of the international borders of Lebanon, especially in those areas where the border is disputed or uncertain, including by dealing with the Shebaa farms area, and to present to the Security Council those proposals within thirty days"

and

"Requests the Secretary-General to report to the Council within one week on the implementation of this resolution and subsequently on a regular basis..."

SHAMELESS SELF-PROMOTION  ;D - I've got the more relevant UNSC res'ns posted here:  http://milnewstbay.pbwiki.com/IDF-LBN%20Bkgnd


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## geo (15 Aug 2006)

Heard on the radio that Hezbolah has committed itself to financing the rebuilding of all the war ravaged villages (that they were instrumental in having levelled in 1st place).

Any guesses as to where the actual money is going to come from?

Iran & Syrian interests strike again.


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## paracowboy (15 Aug 2006)

They rebuild the homes and infrastructure that the Zionist murderers destroyed, thus earning even more credit with the average Lebanese, after having stood up to those same Zionist murderers (which means victory, in the twisted logic of the average ME Arab). 

Brilliant, really. They'll have more seats in the next elections. We're going to end up having to burn them out.


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## GAP (15 Aug 2006)

Hezbolla may not get off that lightly

Lebanese anger at both US, Hizbullah grows after truce
August 15, 2006 at 11:30 a.m. Christian Science Monitor
Some Lebanese feel they were used as pawns in the conflict.
By Tom Regan  | csmonitor.com
http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/0815/dailyUpdate.html?s=mesdu

As many families in Beirut and southern Lebanon began to return to what was left of their homes Monday, the shock of the past few weeks was giving way to anger at all of the parties involved in the conflict. While many reports from traditional media reflect Lebanese hostility towards the US, Lebanese bloggers are accussing Hassan Nasrallah, the head of Hizbullah, of using the country, and its people, to further his own agenda.

McClatchy Newspapers reported last week that Lebanon is in the grip of anti-American sentiment. One example of this, reporter Leila Fadel writes, is a huge banner showing Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice with vampire fangs that "looms over the now nearly empty streets of downtown [Beirut]." The change in attitude towards the US comes less than a year after many Lebanese saw the US as a friend on their road to democracy.
More on link


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## The Bread Guy (15 Aug 2006)

Backroom deals already being cut????

 Shared in accordance with the "fair dealing" provisions, Section 29, of the Copyright Act - http://www.cb-cda.gc.ca/info/act-e.html#rid-33409

*Hizbullah likely to retain weapons*
Jerusalem Post, 15 Aug 06
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1154525877356&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

Hizbullah will not hand over its weapons to the Lebanese government but rather refrain from exhibiting them publicly, according to a new compromise that is reportedly brewing between Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Seniora and Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah. 

The UN cease-fire resolution specifically demands the demilitarization of the area south of the Litani river. The resolution was approved by the Lebanese cabinet. 

In a televised address on Monday night, Nasrallah declared that now was not the time to debate the disarmament of his guerrilla fighters, saying the issue should be done in secret sessions of the government to avoid serving Israeli interests. 

"This is immoral, incorrect and inappropriate," he said. "It is wrong timing on the psychological and moral level particularly before the cease-fire," he said in reference to calls from critics for the guerrillas to disarm. 

According to Lebanon's defense minister, Elias Murr, "There will be no other weapons or military presence other than the army" after Lebanese troops move south of the Litani. However, he then contradicted himself by saying the army would not ask Hizbullah to hand over its weapons. 

Murr added that Lebanon's contribution of 15,000 soldiers could be on the north side of the Litani River by the end of the week. 

He noted that international forces could begin arriving next week to bolster the current 2,000-member UN force in southern Lebanon, which watched helplessly as fighting raged over the past month. 

In Europe, Italy and France have pledged troops. Malaysia, Turkey and Indonesia were among the mostly Muslim nations offering help.


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## zipperhead_cop (16 Aug 2006)

milnewstbay said:
			
		

> Hizbullah will not hand over its weapons to the Lebanese government but rather refrain from exhibiting them publicly, according to a new compromise that is reportedly brewing between Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Seniora and Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah.



Anybody that thought Hezbollah (Hizbullah?  Dammit, how is it supposed to be spelled??!?!?) would disarm is smoking rope.  I agree, the cease fire is just an opportunity for them to reorg and resupp.


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## Edward Campbell (16 Aug 2006)

zipperhead_cop said:
			
		

> Anybody that thought Hezbollah (Hizbullah?  Dammit, how is it supposed to be spelled??!?!?) would disarm is smoking rope.  I agree, the cease fire is just an opportunity for them to reorg and resupp.



Things are not looking good, a week or so before the UN even starts to assemble its force. 

Reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from today’s _National Post_ (with my *emphasis* added):

http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/news/story.html?id=cf91e21b-bd1d-45f4-9127-dfb0a4f4c8b5&p=2 


> Nations refuse to disarm Hezbollah
> *U.S., France, UN and Lebanon put deal in jeopardy*
> 
> Allan Woods
> ...



I certainly don’t blame the US or France, much less Lebanon for shying away from this task.  The IDF just tried and failed – maybe because it didn’t try long and hard enough.

Anyway, yet another in the long, sorry list of the UN’s failures.


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## The Bread Guy (16 Aug 2006)

In the same vein, shared in accordance with the "fair dealing" provisions, Section 29, of the Copyright Act - http://www.cb-cda.gc.ca/info/act-e.html#rid-33409

*Hezbollah balks at border disarmament:  Standoff threatens deployment of Lebanese army*
Edward Cody, Doug Struck, Washington Post Syndicate, in San Francisco Chronicle, 16 Aug 06
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2006/08/16/MNGVJKJELG1.DTL

Hezbollah refused to disarm and withdraw its fighters from the battle-scarred hills along the border with Israel Tuesday, threatening to delay deployment of the Lebanese army and endangering a fragile cease-fire. 

The makings of a compromise, however, emerged from all-day meetings in Beirut, according to senior officials involved in the negotiations, and Prime Minister Fuad Saniora scheduled a Cabinet session today for what he hoped would be formal approval of the deal. *Hezbollah implied it would be willing to pull back its fighters and weapons in exchange for a promise from the Lebanese army not to probe too carefully for underground bunkers and weapons caches, the officials said.* 

*Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah insists that any disarmament of his militia -- even in the border area -- should be handled in longer-term discussions within the Lebanese government, according to government ministers. But the Lebanese army, backed by key political leaders, refused to send troops into the just-becalmed battle zone until Hezbollah's missiles, rockets and other weapons were taken north of the Litani River, the ministers said. * 

At stake in the standoff is implementation of a crucial provision of the U.N. Security Council cease-fire that went into effect Monday. The accord calls for quick deployment of 15,000 Lebanese army troops south of the Litani River along the border with Israel. They are to take up positions under the aegis of a more robust, 15,000-strong contingent of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon, or UNIFIL, to keep the peace in southern Lebanon. 

*U.N. officials in New York continued to haggle Tuesday over the mandate and operational rules of the international troops in southern Lebanon, including whether they would have the ability to detain or fire upon suspected Hezbollah fighters engaged in warfare or in gun running. * 

Some countries have said they prefer a monitoring role, while others seek more robust rules of engagement, said a U.N. official who spoke on condition of anonymity. Among the nations said to be considering taking part are France, Indonesia, Italy and Malaysia. 

Hezbollah's reluctance to get its men and arms out of the border zone reflects nervousness over the continuing presence of Israeli soldiers on Lebanese soil. But it also demonstrates the militant group's increased assertiveness after a war of more than a month during which it stood off the Israeli army while Lebanon's national army stood aside. 

UNIFIL spokesman Milos Strugar said U.N. observers reported no significant Israeli withdrawals along the border on the second day of the cease-fire. Israel television, however, showed troops walking and riding military vehicles back into Israel and dozens of tanks taking up positions on the Israeli side of the border. 

Israeli soldiers killed three armed men who approached their positions in southern Lebanon, the military announced. But there were no reports of rockets being fired or sustained clashes despite the existence of Hezbollah and Israeli positions at relatively close distances. 

Thousands of Lebanese families again lined the roads leading south, heeding a call from Hezbollah that they immediately return to their shattered villages. Leaflets dropped by Israeli aircraft warned them to stay away, but cars loaded with children and household belongings streamed down the coastal road. 

*On the ground, Hezbollah's militia and social welfare infrastructure are the only thing still functioning in dozens of devastated villages across the border zone. Army troops in the village of Srifa, for example, were seen working under the orders of Hezbollah militia officers during a search for bodies buried under the rubble of buildings destroyed by Israeli bombing. * 

"What are the alternatives you have come up with?" Nasrallah asked. "Can the Lebanese army and the United Nations troops step up to the plate to defend the nation?" 

Syrian President Bashar Assad, in a fiery speech Tuesday proclaiming a victory for Hezbollah, cast into doubt any change in political relations in the region. 

Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, meanwhile, told CNN on Tuesday that her government has evidence that Iran and Syria are already re-arming Hezbollah, with shipments coming from Syria.


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## Colin Parkinson (16 Aug 2006)

The reason the Lebanese government is not responding to give aid to it’s people is because Hezbollah prevents them from doing so, in order to ensure their power base. If the central government officials started to lay down the law and take over the Hezbollah would kill them. Nobody in southern Lebanon can openly criticize the Hezbollah without risking their and their family’s lives.


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## Infanteer (16 Aug 2006)

Attention K-Mart Shoppers - quit screwing around in the Lebanon thread; this forum is for NEWS so everyone can keep up with what's going on.  I don't care which side you think is a terrorist....


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## big bad john (16 Aug 2006)

http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/0816/p11s01-wome.htm

Hizbullah shifts focus from war front to home front 
In the second day of the cease-fire, many Lebanese returned home to find Hizbullah vowing to help. 
By Scott Peterson | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor 

BEIRUT, LEBANON 
With perfectly pressed robes, the Hizbullah cleric stood out amid the grimy rubble as he tried to give hope to those Lebanese shocked by the destruction of their homes.

"How do we get this help from Hizbullah?" asks one woman, referring to the promise by Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah to repair and rebuild for owners of 15,000 destroyed homes.

"Where are you staying?" he replies in the manner of a seasoned bureaucrat. He says the family should fill out a claim form listing address, size of house, scale of damage, and furniture lost.

"You will get money in an envelope," reassures the black-turbaned cleric, who gave his name as Sayyed Nasri Nassar. "Don't worry, our people are coming to you."

The 34 days of conflict between Israel and Hizbullah uprooted an estimated 900,000 Lebanese and Israeli bombardment left apocalyptic scenes of destruction across Hizbullah strongholds of mainly Shiite south Lebanon and southern districts of Beirut.

But one day after a cease-fire, and just hours after Nasrallah promised that "the brothers, who are your brothers" would take on the reconstruction, Hizbullah's extensive social services system shifted from a war footing to sizing up the huge rebuild task.

Many non-Shiite Lebanese blame Hizbullah for recklessly bringing the current ruin on Lebanon, which officials estimated suffered $2.5 billion in damages. The government, of which Hizbullah is a part, will be responsible for repairing the widespread damage to infrastructure.

But Hizbullah's immediate promise to rebuild - along with widespread confidence here that the resistance won a victory over Israel - is tapping into fresh anger over the destruction, and winning more support for the "Party of God."

"Sheikh Nasrallah will help us rebuild - and God," says Jamal Mizhir, a pharmacist whose aunt collapsed into tears Tuesday when she saw her destroyed home in Beirut's Hizbullah stronghold of Haret Hreik. "When he makes a promise, he's an honest man," says Dr. Mizhir, sounding a frequently heard refrain here. "He always does what he says. That's why we trust him."

For more than two decades, Hizbullah's social networks have filled in for Lebanon's poor Shiites, when weak governments could not fulfill their needs. They operate hospitals, clinics, schools, and social centers.

That work, financed by rich Lebanese Shiites at home and abroad, through local donations, and with significant funds from outside, especially Iran, has done as much as Hizbullah's battles against Israel to win popular support among the Shiites.

They have provided a safety net, analysts say, that has melded the group - which the US labels a terrorist organization - with Lebanese Shiite society.

Even critics of Hizbullah in Lebanon often say they respect the group's integrity, efficiency, and commitment to helping its followers. Nasrallah promised to pay a year's rent for those with destroyed homes, saying Monday night that "we can't wait for the government."

"We don't believe in the government," says Marvat Dahaini, a woman dressed head-to-toe in black. "We believe only in Sheikh Hassan [Nasrallah]. He is our government."

"Hizbullah has a very clean record; anything could have been stolen from here but it wasn't," says Hanadi Mehdi, a literature teacher, casting her arm toward her damaged apartment block, as her brother emerged from a burnt doorway with his computer.

"Some things can't be replaced, like family photos. Your home is your history," says Ms. Mehdi. "The way people think, they have full confidence in Nasrallah, and feel they can confide in him.... Even people who don't support [Hizbullah] respect them."

That respect has built since Hizbullah was created in 1982, forming a model of public service and militancy - conducted efficiently, in a way that local governments could not - that translated into political power. The model was followed by Hamas in the Palestinian territories, and, without the militants, by the Welfare Party in Turkey in the late 1990s.

One example came when this conflict began a month ago and Hizbullah social services adapted to the influx of tens of thousands of displaced people to schools, public parks, and private homes. In Beirut alone, Hizbullah organized 10 mobile medical teams that cared for 14 schools each, in two-day rotations. This aid helped 48,000; another 70,000 people in houses were treated by other professionals.

"People are shocked: All their needs are covered by us, and their gratitude is great," says Ali Taha, a doctor who organizes the teams. He says half the needs of the displaced have been handled by service organizations linked to Hizbullah, such as orphans and martyrs foundations that have kept databases on the refugees.

"The pressure and responsibility of those institutes is much greater than before, to satisfy everyone," Dr. Taha said, the day before the cease-fire sent a stampede of people returning to their homes. "In peacetime, Hizbullah used to give medical services free to the poor, or for a small fee. Now everything is free."

It's a similar story nearby, in a Hizbullah kitchen near downtown Beirut. Volunteers work shifts over vats of rice and stew, to provide 8,000 hot meals a day - part of a 50,000 daily total they distribute across Beirut.

"[Hizbullah guerrillas] are sacrificing their lives, so this is the least we can do," says volunteer Hussein Saloum, who sold fresh fruit juice until falling buildings crushed his shop. "They are giving as much as they can, but the main gift is defending our lands in the south."

"This has a humanitarian purpose, and I feel I'm on a mission," says cook Ali Sirhan, whose restaurant in the southern suburbs of Beirut was damaged. "If I didn't fight there [in south Lebanon], I can fight here."

To understand that depth of support - and how Nasrallah still is seen to "win" here, even though his militia precipitated such a devastating Israeli attack - may depend on understanding the Shiite culture of martyrdom that stretches back to the 7th century.

"This is amazing ... people [still] say, 'We give all our spirit and soul to you [Hizbullah],' " says schoolteacher Mehdi. "You have to go back to collective thinking. People are not so materialistic, but believe in dignity, honor and sacrifice."

"It's really contradictory, because we carry the roots of both fatalism and optimism in us," says Mehdi. "We see people die, and the next day mourn them, and then hear music at night. People are so resilient."

But do people here blame Hizbullah? "Maybe in their heart, but they don't say it," says Izzat Shahrour, a bulky man with arms covered in bomb dust.

And a little help from Hizbullah can ensure that you are a believer. When Mr. Shahrour sent his family away from this district a month ago, he stayed behind to protect his immobile mother. But bombing destroyed a host of adjacent buildings, and the two were trapped in a basement for days.

Then a Hizbullah activist came around, calling out if anybody was left in the area. Shahrour was able to get his arm out through the debris. The man told him to wait. Thirty minutes later the rubble was removed with equipment and a car arrived. At the sound of a whistle, Shahrour scooped up his mother in his arms and raced with her to the car.

"They helped me out," says Shahrour. "They asked me how long we had not eaten, brought us juice, and said: 'Where do you want to go? We are ready.'

I am sure Nasrallah will help, because people believe in him, trust him ... he must help," says Shahrour, of the Hizbullah rebuild promise. "When he spoke, he gave us hope."


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## CanadaPhil (16 Aug 2006)

So it looks like the question of the day is WHO WON??

According to all of the left wing media, Hezbollah did.

Huh??

Well, Israel may have not scored a knock out punch yet, but they are by all accounts at least LEADING. 

What keeps getting lost in the MSM and terrorist supporting blogs right now is that Hezbollah will NO LONGER have an armed presence south of the Litani River. This is something that the Lebanese government and the UN have NOT been able to accomplish in years, and NEVER would have even tried. That is obvious.

At least now, if the UN has any resolve to follow through with the agreement in place, Israel has at least accomplished what Hezbollah had been saying would never happen. We are now going to be in a situation where the Lebanese army, NOT Hezbollah is going to take up positions on or near the border with Israel, and that an armed?? UN force will also be there to supposedly ensure no acts of terror or raids can take place. 

Hezbollah is NOT going to disarm. That much is sure. This fight is just being postponed to another day. That much is also sure.

However, at least now, the Lebanese government AND the UN will have to FINALLY put up or shut up. 

Israel can now regroup back inside their border, and just sit back and watch. They now have every right to expect that there will NOT be any yellow banners fluttering right next to UN flags within eyesight of the Blue Line. They will have every right to expect that the people of Haifa can go about their daily business without looking up. There will be a supposedly robust international force (mainly French by the looks of it) who are promising to not allow infiltration of the area by any Hezbollah terrorists. 

We all know however that that is wishful thinking. At least the next time, Israel will not have a reason to hold anything back. My suggestion to the French would be to keep the engine idling and get ready to duck.

My other suggestion would be that Israel put Syria and Iran on notice RIGHT NOW. Since they basically control and support Hezbollah, and use them to fight proxy wars, Israel should make it clear (at the UN itself) that any future attacks by Hezbollah will be regarded as direct attacks by Syria and Iran itself, and Israel would reserve the right to act as they see fit. That way, there will be no excuses next time.


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## paracowboy (16 Aug 2006)

big bad john said:
			
		

> But one day after a cease-fire, and just hours after Nasrallah promised that "the brothers, who are your brothers" would take on the reconstruction, Hizbullah's extensive social services system shifted from a war footing to sizing up the huge rebuild task...But Hizbullah's immediate promise to rebuild - along with widespread confidence here that the resistance won a victory over Israel - is tapping into fresh anger over the destruction, and winning more support for the "Party of God."...That work, financed by rich Lebanese Shiites at home and abroad, through local donations, and with significant funds from outside, especially Iran, has done as much as Hizbullah's battles against Israel to win popular support among the Shiites...


called it. Not so much a prediction, mind you, as simply re-iterating what has gone on before. Often, since the Palestinian invasion, followed by the Israeli one. And, it's gonna happen again, with even more disastrous results for Israel in the Int'l media, and worse, for the Lebanese people on the ground. Except this time, it will also have a larger impact on third-party soldiers.


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## a_majoor (16 Aug 2006)

Alas, unless Israel has the stratigic and logistical muscle to do so, taking on Hezbollah, Syria and Iran don't seem to be in the cards anytime soon. Even two out of three is probably outside their reach, and a concentrated "rabbit hunt" burning out Hezbollah bunkers and caches one by one will be many orders of magnitude slower than the resupply of arms, money and advisors from Syria and Iran.

Hearts and minds will be difficult due to the closed nature of Hezbollah and the society they are establishing in south Lebanon, so the centre of gravity should be the rest of Lebanon, to have them shun Hezbollah, seal the border against foreign interlopers and arms that feed the Hezbollah, and eventually squeeze them out of the south.

.02


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## GAP (16 Aug 2006)

Yeah, but you are forgetting the Shite and Sunni thingy....They are not dividing along political lines (although it does play a factor), but along tribal/religious lines.


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## Infanteer (16 Aug 2006)

CanadaPhil said:
			
		

> So it looks like the question of the day is WHO WON??



There is a thread over at LF on this exact topic.  My thoughts from over there; which pretty much echo my statement from a month ago:



> Originally posted by Infanteer:
> Anyways, IMHO, tactical stalemate = strategic loss for Israel.
> 
> The material losses for Hezbollah will probably be inconsequential.  They'll have plenty of recruits, money and weapons to replace their losses.
> ...


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## Cdn Blackshirt (16 Aug 2006)

Mild Winners:
Israel
Hezbollah

Big Losers:
Iran
Moderate Lebanese (primarly Christian and Druze)


Matthew.


----------



## Michael OLeary (16 Aug 2006)

For what it's worth:


> DAILY POLL
> 
> Canada’s official policy classifies Hezbollah as a terrorist organization. In light of its recent military, humanitarian and political campaigns, do you agree Hezbollah is a terrorist group?
> 
> ...



http://www.canada.com/globaltv/ontario/index.html


----------



## tomahawk6 (18 Aug 2006)

Story on how the war affected Kiryat Shmona. Some great photos. The katyusha rocket as a terror weapon.

http://www.michaeltotten.com/archives/001240.html


----------



## Bruce Monkhouse (19 Aug 2006)

http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/Canada/2006/08/18/1764247-cp.html

ANTIGONISH, N.S. (CP) - Canada won't send any troops or ships to help enforce the United Nations-sponsored ceasefire in Lebanon, says Foreign Affairs Minister Peter MacKay. 
MacKay says Canada's defence personnel are committed to Afghanistan. 

The cabinet minister made the comments during an announcement of funding for a study centre at St. Francis Xavier University in Antigonish. 
Alan Baker, Israel's ambassador to Canada, has suggested Canada could contribute patrol ships to a beefed-up UN presence in southern Lebanon. 

The UN appealed to European countries on Friday to contribute to an expanded peacekeeping force that would have a balance of European and Muslim troops so that Israel and Lebanon will view it as legitimate. 
Italy endorsed sending troops to Lebanon but did not commit itself to specific numbers. 
Finland decided to send up to 250 peacekeepers to Lebanon, but said they would not be deployed until November. 

"There's no indication we'll be sending military troops or assets into the region," MacKay said during an interview. 
"We're doing important work in Afghanistan, and we're doing important work helping stabilize a region such as Haiti." 

At a meeting of 49 nations Thursday, the only countries to offer mechanized infantry battalions, which will be the front line of the expanded force, were three predominantly Muslim countries - Bangladesh, Indonesia and Malaysia - and Nepal, which is predominantly Hindu.


----------



## Kat Stevens (19 Aug 2006)

Nepal would be the answer, neither Jew nor Muslim.  Stick six battalions of Gorkhas between the two sides, brief everyone on the rules, and dare either side to start some shyte.


----------



## paracowboy (19 Aug 2006)

Kat Stevens said:
			
		

> Nepal would be the answer, neither Jew nor Muslim.


in die-hard Islamic fanatic eyes, a Hindu is even worse than a Christian or Jew. Whereas Christians & Jews are at least People of the Book, Hindus and Buddhists are flat-out pagans and idolators.


----------



## Kat Stevens (19 Aug 2006)

True, but I was looking at it from a more "neutrality of the peace enforcers"  kind of thing.  I would think that Hez would learn pretty quick that those pagans are not afraid to lay the smackdown, with a vengeance.


----------



## tomahawk6 (19 Aug 2006)

Hizbollah really doesnt want UN troops in there. The Lebanese Army will be plenty of cover for them. If the Izzies resume offensive operations the LA will surrender faster than you can say Oprah.


----------



## zipperhead_cop (19 Aug 2006)

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> Hizbollah really doesnt want UN troops in there. The Lebanese Army will be plenty of cover for them. If the Izzies resume offensive operations the LA will surrender faster than you can say Oprah.



Surrender?  Hell, they are probably drawing their range cards for them.  "Ah, Master Hizbollah, please, come in!  Here is a report on Israeli school bus traffic, and my man Hassim has come up with a way to make the Katusha's more accurate.  Please enjoy your stay at our position.  If you need anything, just ring the little bell and we will come running".   :


----------



## ab9321 (19 Aug 2006)

Interesting to see which side is being accused of breaking the truce. ;D


----------



## vonGarvin (19 Aug 2006)

The UN showed recently which side it de facto supports.  After Israel's raid on a suspected Hezbollah arms site on the border, UN Secretary General Kofi Annan said that Israel was to blame for violating the cease fire (source: my radio news this evening).  He had NOTHING to go on other that unconfirmed news reports and perhaps his prejudice.  I don't know which side was to "blame", but I _suspect_ that Israel did indeed go after an arms shipment, which in itself is a violation of the terms of the agreement.


----------



## tomahawk6 (19 Aug 2006)

I dont think anyone seriously expects this ceasefire to hold. Hizbollah still has the Israeli soldiers they kidnapped. Until that issue is settled this is merely a respite.


----------



## paracowboy (19 Aug 2006)

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> I dont think anyone seriously expects this ceasefire to hold. Hizbollah still has the Israeli soldiers they kidnapped. Until that issue is settled this is merely a respite.


rather: 





> I don't think anyone seriously expects this ceasefire to hold. Hizbollah still has the Israeli soldiers they kidnapped. *Israel still exists.* Until that issue is settled this is merely a respite.


----------



## GAP (19 Aug 2006)

> Quote
> I don't think anyone seriously expects this ceasefire to hold. Hizbollah still has the Israeli soldiers they kidnapped. Israel still exists. Until that  issue is settled this is merely a respite.



We can play around with the words, but that is essentially it.


----------



## TCBF (19 Aug 2006)

Isreal may have fallen into a dungheap, but may yet come up smelling like a rose, note:

1.  They lost.  This dissappointed the Isreali people as well as most of the west and the  moderate Arab states, all of whom would LOVE to sea the Med stained red with the offal of the Hezbollah.  This means a change for the better  - rather sooner than later - of leadership in the top Isreali political and military ranks.  

2.  The UN is coming to put in the 'fix'.  Since the UN can't organize a one man rush to a two hole outhouse, they will be  again  seen for the anti-western fascists they really are.  Pick a nice tall tree in Central Park, some rope, and add Kofi Annan:  some assembly required.  

3.  As this 'Planetary Caliphate' versus western civilization confict heats up, our friends and enemies - foreign and domestic - are 'self-identifying'.  This will save us a lot of trouble later on.

4.  The 'moderates' are falling off everyone's bandwagons.  Good.  Makes for clearer fields of fire (politically speaking).


----------



## Scoobie Newbie (19 Aug 2006)

I agree with point 1.  This "defeat" will hopefully show the Israel politicians and military brass what went right and what went wrong.  More money and training will certainly go into what they do and the complacency should be all but gone.


----------



## TCBF (19 Aug 2006)

Conrad Black, in today's National Post, wrote something about the Isreali troops possibly  feeling that the issue might be worth killing for, but not worth dying for.  Their opposition, on the other hand, are more than willing to die for the place and the cause.  

TCBF's definition of a Fanatic:  Someone who has just out-fought us.


----------



## zipperhead_cop (20 Aug 2006)

TCBF said:
			
		

> 4.  The 'moderates' are falling off everyone's bandwagons.  Good.  Makes for clearer fields of fire (politically speaking).



"It is always better to have an honest enemy than a dishonest friend".  I think I heard that on Star Trek once, but I always liked that quote.


----------



## a_majoor (20 Aug 2006)

A look at some of the tactical and military points scored by Isreal, but in the strategic realm I would say Israel came off second best in the 4GW arena. You notice that although Hisbollah refuses to follow the cease fire agreement, it is Israel that is being condemmed for eliminating a forbidden weapons cache (rather than praised for implimenting the cease fire provisions). 
some of the claims made here are subject to verification.

http://gayandright.blogspot.com/2006/08/how-israel-won-war.html



> *How Israel Won the War*....
> 
> An excellent piece in the Ottawa Citizen by Barry Rubin.
> 
> ...


----------



## Shec (20 Aug 2006)

Quagmire said:
			
		

> I agree with point 1.  This "defeat" will hopefully show the Israel politicians and military brass what went right and what went wrong.  More money and training will certainly go into what they do and the complacency should be all but gone.



The big lesson the IDF learned was that cutting back on an army's logistics tail is not the way to respond to defense budget cuts.    Too many reservists reporting to depot only to discover that their equipment stocks had been pillaged and too many understrength supply and tranport echelons to keep the combat units in bullets, beans, and POL and not enough of anything to allow for a fuller mobilization make for a lot of p.o.'ed citizen soldiers and their mothers.     Means Olmert is gone along with Defence Minister Perez and probably Rametkal (ie. CDS) Halutz.   Probably won't be seeing another air force Rametkal for a while either - it'll be back to the fundamentals of field force organization.


----------



## paracowboy (20 Aug 2006)

fair dealings act

http://start.shaw.ca/start/enCA/News/WorldNewsArticle.htm?src=w082027A.xml
*Lebanon warns rogue Palestinian rocket teams against attacks on Israel*
at 15:20 on August 20, 2006, EST.
By STEVEN R. HURST
BEIRUT (AP) - Lebanon's defence minister said Sunday he is certain Hezbollah will not break the ceasefire but warned all militant groups of harsh measures and a traitor's fate if they incite Israeli retaliation by firing rockets into the Jewish state. 
Defence Minister Elias Murr's strong remarks indicated concern that Syrian-backed Palestinian militants might try to restart the fighting by drawing retaliation from Israel. 
Prime Minister Fuad Saniora, meanwhile, toured the devastated Hezbollah stronghold in south Beirut and decried the destruction by Israeli bombs as a "crime against humanity." Parliament speaker Nabih Berri, a Shiite and Hezbollah backer, stood at the Sunni premier's side and said they spoke with one voice. 
In Jerusalem, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said he would name a panel to investigate the military and government's performance during the war, which has been criticized by many Israelis as weak and indecisive. 
A day after Israeli commandos staged a pre-dawn raid deep into Lebanon, prompting UN Secretary General Kofi Annan to declare the Israelis in violation of the Security Council ceasefire resolution, no new clashes were reported. 
Residents in the mountains east of Beirut, however, described continued overflights by Israeli warplanes on the truce's seventh day. 
Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesman Mark Regev said Saturday's raid was aimed at disrupting arms shipments to Hezbollah and such operations may continue until international peacekeepers arrive to enforce an arms embargo. 
"In the situation where there was a flagrant violation of the embargo, Israel had the right to act. Had there not been a violation, Israel would not have to respond," he said Sunday, expressing impatience with the slow international response in offering troops for the peacekeeping force. 
Siding with Jerusalem, the U.S. government also said the Israeli raid underscored the importance of quickly deploying an expanded UN peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon. 
"We've seen the press reports and noted the Israeli statement saying that the operation was a reaction to arms smuggling," White House spokeswoman Emily Lawrimore said, adding that preventing the resupply of weapons to Hezbollah by Syria and Iran is a key provision of the ceasefire plan. 
The Lebanese defence minister insisted that Hezbollah would hold its fire. 
"We consider that when the resistance (Hezbollah) is committed not to fire rockets, then any rocket that is fired from the Lebanese territory would be considered collaboration with Israel to provide a pretext (for Israel) to strike," Murr said. 
He added that "the Lebanese army will decisively deal with" any attack on Israel and that anyone arrested for violating the truce "will be considered by the military tribunal as an agent of the Israeli enemy." 
Murr did not repeat his threat of Saturday to stop the deployment of Lebanon's army in the south to protest Israel's helicopter-borne commando raid near the town of Boudai on the west side of the Bekaa Valley, a Hezbollah stronghold. 
Such a halt would be a blow to the UN ceasefire plan, which calls for the army and a strong UN peacekeeping force to police the truce and separate Israeli troops and Hezbollah's guerrillas. 
Murr apparently was satisfied by a declaration from Annan warning Israel against a repeat of the raid. 
Townspeople in Boudai said 300 residents grabbed guns after the Israeli raid began at 3 a.m. and fought at the side of 15 Hezbollah guerrillas for 90 minutes before the commandos retreated and were flown back to Israel. Residents said there were no casualties on the Lebanese side. One Israeli officer was killed and two soldiers were wounded. 
Under the UN ceasefire that took effect a week ago Monday, Lebanon has started deploying 15,000 soldiers in its southern region, putting a government force there for the first time in four decades. 
It is to be joined by an equal force of international peacekeepers, but wrangling among countries expected to send troops has delayed the mission and UN officials are pleading for nations to participate to bolster the fragile truce. 
France, which commands the existing UN force in Lebanon, UNIFIL, on Sunday called for a meeting of European Union countries this week to determine the number of troops they are prepared to contribute to the UN mission. 
"We are asking that Europe express its solidarity toward Lebanon as rapidly as possible," Foreign Minister Philippe Douste-Blazy told radio Franco Info. 
The Israeli prime minister complicated the effort with a reported decision Sunday to reject peacekeepers in Lebanon from countries that don't have diplomatic relations with the Jewish state. 
Indonesia, Malaysia and Bangladesh - Muslim countries that do not have diplomatic ties with Israel - are among the only countries so far to have offered front-line troops for the expanded force. 
The UN ceasefire resolution does not explicitly give Israel authority to block countries from joining the peacekeeping mission, but it does say the force should co-ordinate its activities with the Lebanese and Israeli governments.


----------



## paracowboy (20 Aug 2006)

paracowboy said:
			
		

> Prime Minister Fuad Saniora, meanwhile, toured the devastated Hezbollah stronghold in south Beirut and decried the destruction by Israeli bombs as a "crime against humanity." Parliament speaker Nabih Berri, a Shiite and Hezbollah backer, stood at the Sunni premier's side and said they spoke with one voice.


yeah. The Lebanese forces are gonna do a WHOLE lot to stop Hezbollah.  :



> In Jerusalem, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said he would name a panel to investigate the military and government's performance during the war, which has been criticized by many Israelis as weak and indecisive.


 well, he's gone next election.



> "In the situation where there was a flagrant violation of the embargo, Israel had the right to act. Had there not been a violation, Israel would not have to respond," he said Sunday, expressing impatience with the slow international response in offering troops for the peacekeeping force.


 see, now he's trying to explain by applying logic to people who don't function logically, and their appeaser/fellow travellers who don't understand logic. THERE'S his problem!



> "We consider that when the resistance (Hezbollah) is committed not to fire rockets, then any rocket that is fired from the Lebanese territory would be considered collaboration with Israel to provide a pretext (for Israel) to strike," Murr said. He added that "the Lebanese army will decisively deal with" any attack on Israel and that anyone arrested for violating the truce "will be considered by the military tribunal as an agent of the Israeli enemy."


 see?



> a strong UN peacekeeping force


 a *what*, now? Can someone explain this one to me? "Strong" and "UN" in the same sentence? "Strong" and "peacekeeping" in the same sentence?



> Hezbollah's guerrillas


still can't call a spade a spade, I see. 



> Annan warning Israel against a repeat of the raid


ooohh! Scaaary. Go back to counting your Oil-For-Fraud money, punk. 



> putting a government force there for the first time in four decades.


 you'd think they would want to thank Israel for giving them control over heir nation again, wouldn't you?



> but wrangling among countries expected to send troops has delayed the mission


 sit: No Change. NSTR.



> "We are asking that Europe express its solidarity toward Lebanon as rapidly as possible," Foreign Minister Philippe Douste-Blazy told radio Franco Info.


 yup. France is gonna be good and neutral. Nice to see. Sit: No Change.



> The Israeli prime minister complicated the effort with a reported decision Sunday to reject peacekeepers in Lebanon from countries that don't have diplomatic relations with the Jewish state.


 well, that limits it quite a bit, now don't it? He's bein' all unreasonable. He wants to ensure that the referee will deal fairly. That's not how it's supposed to work.



> Indonesia, Malaysia and Bangladesh - Muslim countries that do not have diplomatic ties with Israel - are among the only countries so far to have offered front-line troops for the expanded force.


 Hmmm, you know, if I were a cynical man, I'd think that these nations are just sending their troops to get the money. Kinda like they do everywhere. Naaah!


----------



## tomahawk6 (21 Aug 2006)

Israel has returned 5 people that were taken in an IDF raid on Baalbek. Hopefully this leads to the return of the 2 Israeli soldiers held by Hizbollah.

http://haaretz.com/hasen/spages/753123.html


----------



## a_majoor (22 Aug 2006)

Comparisons:

http://phantomobserver.com/blog/?p=287



> So What Do I Know About Israel?
> It occurred to me that, even though Israel’s been in the news quite a lot lately, I really don’t know much about the place. I mean, I know that it’s a primarily Jewish state and that a lot of countries in the Middle East resent that, but I don’t know about Israel as an actual nation-state.
> 
> Fortunately, what I don’t know I can’t find out. One of the functions of the American CIA is to publish profiles of the world’s nations in The World Factbook, which is available online. (I’d prefer to use a Canadian source, but Foreign Affairs doesn’t publish anything similar.) I figured it’d be a good idea to compare the country stats of Israel, Lebanon (since that’s where Hezbolla is) and Canada (for a baseline).
> ...


----------



## a_majoor (23 Aug 2006)

Center of gravity, CENTRE OF GRAVITY, *CENTRE OF GRAVITY*

http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/hezbollah-has-few-fans-among-bitter-christians/2006/08/22/1156012541229.html#



> *Hezbollah has few fans among bitter Christians*
> 
> Photo: Sarah Smiles
> 
> ...


----------



## Infanteer (23 Aug 2006)

a_majoor said:
			
		

> Center of gravity, CENTRE OF GRAVITY, *CENTRE OF GRAVITY*



On another note:

http://www.ausa.org/PDFdocs/LPE01-1.pdf


----------



## geo (24 Aug 2006)

reading in the papers this AM that Syria has it's shorts tied in a knot over the UNs intention to monitor / patrol their border with Lebanon.....

Wonder what that's about ???


----------



## a_majoor (26 Aug 2006)

A regional analysis

http://www.reason.com/links/links082406.shtml



> *Hoodwinked by Hezbollah *
> Turning the stench of defeat into the smell of victory
> Michael Young
> 
> ...


----------



## Kirkhill (26 Aug 2006)

Taheri's Take - Fair Dealings etc.



> Hezbollah Didn't Win
> Arab writers are beginning to lift the veil on what really happened in Lebanon.
> 
> BY AMIR TAHERI
> ...



http://www.opinionjournal.com/editorial/feature.html?id=110008847


----------



## Kirkhill (26 Aug 2006)

And a couple of bits of miscellany -

The Red Cross Ambulance Incident - http://www.zombietime.com/fraud/ambulance/
Anti-Semitism as Strategy - http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=NjUzMGU4NTMyOTdkOTdmNTA1MWJlYjYyZDliODZkOGM=


----------



## geo (27 Aug 2006)

Interesting spin on the BBC news this evening..........
Leader of Hezbolah in now saying that, if he had understood how Israel was going to react to their kidnapping the 2 israeli soldiers (bombs, tanks, arty, planes, etc nuking Lebanon) he wouldn't have done it)..............

Dumb ass!


----------



## a_majoor (27 Aug 2006)

Not really; he is still fighting the information war as he knows victory will be determined by the actions and reactions of the West. He certainly does not want hard headed analysis like in the previous page detailing the defeat of the Hezbollah, but he knows that useful idiots like the BBC will play the anti-Israel message and far fewer people read Army.ca for detailed analysis.


----------



## Ex-Dragoon (27 Aug 2006)

Still has not facilitated the release of those 2 Israeli soldiers....


----------



## couchcommander (27 Aug 2006)

The above mentioned story from CBC:

Reproduced here under the auspices of the fair dealings provision of the Copyright Act. 



> Attack on Israel was mistake, Hezbollah leader says
> Last Updated Sun, 27 Aug 2006 18:37:27 EDT
> CBC News
> 
> ...



Interesting development. 

Have the Israeli's managed to inflict such damage that a restort to arms against them, even by groups like Hezballah, is now seen as unacceptable affair by the leaders of these groups? That seems to be message coming across, but it could also be yet another facet of the information war being waged against us. 

In the end, it would certainly go a long way towards stabilizing the region, too bad it took another war to prove a point that was effectively demonstrated more than half a century ago. 

Does this validate their strategy of massive retaliation? 

Interesting question, in my opinion. If what this man is saying is true, how many lives have now been saved?


----------



## Kirkhill (27 Aug 2006)

> "We did not think, even one  per cent, that the capture would lead to a war at this time and of this magnitude," Nasrallah said



Seems like the best time and the best way to hit somebody - hard when they least expect it.


----------



## Kirkhill (28 Aug 2006)

> Apparently using techniques learnt from their paymasters in Iran, *they were even able to crack the codes and follow the fast-changing frequencies of Israeli radio communications*, intercepting reports of the casualties they had inflicted again and again. This enabled them to dominate the media war by announcing Israeli fatalities first.


http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2089-2330624,00.html

Forget all the rest of the strategic posturing - at a tactical level this sounds serious to me.

Also there was this quote:


> “We expected a tent and three Kalashnikovs — that was the intelligence we were given. Instead, *we found a hydraulic steel door leading to a well-equipped network of tunnels*.”



And this:


> Hezbollah appears to have divided a three mile-wide strip along the Israeli-Lebanese border into numerous “killing boxes”. Each box was protected in classic guerrilla fashion with booby-traps, land mines (haven't they heard of the Ottawa Protocol?  : ), *and even CCTV cameras to watch every step of the advancing Israeli army*.



On the other side of the coin there is this note:



> The casualties from Russian-made anti-tank missiles have caused particular concern. An Israeli-invented radar defence shield codenamed Flying Jacket and costing £200,000 was installed on only four tanks. None of them was struck by anti-tank missiles.
> 
> But Hezbollah hit 46 tanks that lacked the shield. “£200,000 per tank is not beyond Israel’s means,” noted one military source acidly.



200,000 UKP is about 400,000 Canadian Dollars - per vehicle.  While that may not be beyond Israel's means, depending on the number of tanks it wants to field, I am willing to bet it would put a serious crimp into the Canadian defence budget.  IIRC that is about the price of an entire Stryker/Turretless LAVIII.


----------



## Edward Campbell (28 Aug 2006)

Bo said:
			
		

> ...
> 
> If there is one thing Nasrallah would want, it would be "hard-headed analysis". An analysis showing civilian casualties, destroyed infrastructure, and damaged economy would show just how one-sided this battle really was.



*One-sided* is precisely how wars are supposed to be: we want to pound the enemy into submission as quickly as possible.  Speed, violence and brutally overwhelming force are the keys to a successful attack.  The entire _nation in arms_ (which is what Hezbollah looks like to any trained military observer is a *legitimate military target* - just as the Ruhr basin, all of it, women and children and hospitals included, was a legitimate target in 1944: remember the Dam Busters?

A campaign which is not one-sided is called a draw; that's what the Israel/Hezbollah dust up _looks like_ at first glance and that's what it might become if the criminals in the UN allow Hezbollah to rearm and, thereby, require Israel to pound the Lebanese, all of 'em, again.

I believe that the ‘one-sided’ hand wringing is the result of the use of air power.  For some strange reason people – terminally stupid people with zero military skill and knowledge – think that battles should be _fair_ and _balanced_ and, above all, _bloodless_.  *Rubbish!** Arrant nonsense!  War means destroying the enemy’s will to resist; anything less is just random violence.  If we will not, cannot prosecute a war to that end then we have no business fighting at all.  To destroy the enemy’s will to resist we have, since time immemorial, used civilians as targets and tools.  Consider Cæsar’s Siege of Alesia (I may be repeating myself - sorry about that): was Vercingetorix a war criminal because he sent his women and children, all them – thousands of them, out of the safety of his besieged city and into the no-man’s land between his impregnable walls and Cæsar’s siege lines?  He counted on Cæsar being soft-hearted and equally soft-headed; Cæsar was, according to Vercingetorix’ plan, supposed to open his gates and allow the women and children to pass through his lines – slowly.  In that period Vercingetorix planned to attack and effect a break out.  Not a bad plan, considering his position.  Should he be condemned for practising asymmetrical warfare over 2,000 years ago?  Cæsar was hard-headed; Vercingetorix’ women and children died, slowly, of starvation and exposure – in full view of their men-folk; it must have been hard on morale – Roman and Gallic.  Was Cæsar a war criminal for not falling into the trap?  I suppose Louise Arbour would say "Yes" - I say "NO!" - as emphatically as I can.  My point is that there is nothing new and nothing wrong with ‘using’ civilians provided one does not:

•	Target them indiscriminately – as civilians, just to terrorize the military.  I saw no evidence Israel did this – indiscriminate being the operative word; or

•	Use them as shields by, for example, living amongst them and fighting without uniforms, etc, so that one can hide in plain view.  That appears to one of Hezbollah's’s tactics.
One-sided wars are blessing, for everyone: they end more quickly than the fair fights.
*


----------



## tomahawk6 (28 Aug 2006)

As we speak Iran/Syria are resupplying Hizbollah with a variety of missiles including the Shahab-3 and ammunition. The plan would be to launch these Scud type missiles from the Bekaa while UNIFIL and the LA were in place. The IAF would have a hard time locating these mobile weapons as Israel's cities were hit. The Patriot batteries would get some of these but invariably there would be leakers. Meanwhile the IDF would have to punch their way through UNIFIL and the LA to get to Hizbollah, more of a pr disaster than a military challenge. If you have to do that then the IDF might as well head for Damascus.


----------



## geo (28 Aug 2006)

well..... given that Syria and Israel never signed a peace treaty after their last dust-up, they are still in a state of war with one another (Mind you, Syria doesn't recognize Israel's right to exist).

WRT Iran & Syria rearming Hezbolah.... t'is one of the reasons that the PM of Lebanon is asking for UN troops to be stationed on the Syrian border.


----------



## a_majoor (28 Aug 2006)

More on the Information war:

http://www.victorhanson.com/articles/thornton082306.html



> *Inside the “Cease-fire”*
> U.N.’s looming failure reveals West’s moral confusion.
> by Bruce Thornton
> Private Papers
> ...


----------



## Kirkhill (28 Aug 2006)

Well said Edward.

Don't pick a fight you can't win unless you want to end up face down and bleeding.  

ALL WARS ARE ULTIMATELY HEARTS AND MINDS CAMPAIGNS.  The purpose of the exercise is to convince the opposition to do what you want it to do.  If you can convince the opposition's leadership to go along with your wishes and they can convince their population to agree then there is no need for further discussion.  If, on the other hand the opposition's leadership is unconvinced and acting against your interests then you need to go over their heads and convince the population that it isn't a great idea to follow the leader.  There are two tools available - bribery and brutality.

If they won't accept bribery they need to expect brutality.

In the West I like to think that we would wait for the first punch to be thrown before retaliating.  But if the opposition does decide to throw the first punch then they had best make it count because after that then all bets are off.  

Hezbollah made the mistake of poking Israel in the chest one too many times when it captured those two soldiers.  It wasn't enough to hurt Israel  but it was enough to justify a response.


----------



## couchcommander (28 Aug 2006)

Bo said:
			
		

> Yeah, as we speak the US is resupplying Israel with missiles, fighter aircraft, ammunition, etc.



Right, Israel is a state.

The equivalent would be Syria/Iran supplying the Lebanese army with missiles and munitions.

Rather, they are arming a non-state entity, namely a para-military/terrorist organization that has the destruction of Israel as it's stated aim, just finished dragging a nation through a war against it's will, and that is actively eroding the control of a democratically elected government (no, not Israel, Lebanon).


----------



## tomahawk6 (28 Aug 2006)

UNIFIL posted on their web site Israeli troop movements in real time. They didnt feel the need to post Hizbollah movements. So with this track record how can anyone expect UNIFIL to be impartial ?


----------



## Kirkhill (28 Aug 2006)

Could somebody help me out here?



> Amidst all this dithering by Annan and Chirac, *DEBKAfile reports that convoys with Iranian-supplied missiles are passing through Syria on their way to Hezbollah * and that there is a recently installed *Iranian Revolutionary Guard command center on the Syrian side of the Iranian border * which is being used to direct Hezbollah even more closely than before the war.  Syria has issued unanswered threats that it would consider the stationing of international forces on its border with Lebanon, in order to stop the flow of weapons and other support to Hezbollah, to be an “act of aggression.”   For its part, Iran has declared that it will defend Syria’s security and continues to defy the Security Council’s demand that it suspend its nuclear uranium enrichment program.


 http://www.frontpagemag.com/Articles/ReadArticle.asp?ID=24084

I am prepared to accept that Iran is supplying new missiles to Hezbollah.
I am prepared to accept that they are passing through Syria on their way.

What I am bothered about is how they get from Iran to Syria.  

The article talks about the "Syrian side of the Iranian border" suggesting that Iran and Syria are contiguous at some point.

I am prepared to accept that the maps (here's an example http://www.atlapedia.com/online/maps/political/Saudi_etc.htm ) that I have seen may be out of date but my understanding was that the only way to get from Iran to Syria overland is:

a) through Kurdish held Turkey (not to mention Kurdish Syria) or
b) through Iraq.

Where exactly do Syria and Iran join?
Alternatively, who is letting these missiles through? Turkey? The Kurds? Iraq? Or the US?

Having said that, it is entirely feasible, I suppose that they might be flown from Tehran to Damascus.


----------



## tomahawk6 (28 Aug 2006)

The reports I have seen in the media is that there is a command center in the Iranian embassy in Beruit that controls hizbollah militia. The excerpt I believe is a typo. The command center is just across the Syrian-Lebanon border. The concept is to base missile in Syria,run them across the border to fire and the launcher scoots back across the border.

The Turks informed Iranian aircraft that they would be landing for inspection and they returned to Iran rather than be inspected. My guess is that there are enough missiles in Syria that they can supply Hizbollah until they can get more weapons in from Iran. The Iranians will have to resupply Hizbollah by sea through a Syrian port.


----------



## Cloud Cover (28 Aug 2006)

Reproduced under the Fair Dealings provisions of the Copyright Act:

Certainly a potential threat to consider going forward: http://www.mosnews.com/news/2006/06/02/syrianbase.shtml

*Russia to Establish Naval Base in Syrian Port of Tartus * — Paper
Created: 02.06.2006 11:55 MSK (GMT +3), Updated: 18:53 MSK


MosNews


Russia has begun works in the Syrian port of Tartus seeking to built a full-scale naval base for the ships of the Black Sea Fleet, currently based in Ukraine’s Sevastopol, the Kommersant newspaper reported on Friday, quoting unnamed sources in the Defense Ministry and the General Staff of the Russian Navy. 

The paper noted that this is the first time Russia is setting up a military base outside the CIS since the fall of the USSR and that the base will allow Moscow to pursue its own line in the Middle East.

Russia has also started work in the port of Latakia in Syria, the newspaper said. The base in Tartus and the new mooring in Latakia will be able to serve the needs of the Black Sea Fleet and possibly the North Sea Fleet as well. 

The newspaper quoted its sources as saying that in the nearest future the Russian Navy will form a squadron headed by the Moskva missile cruiser which will permanently operate in the Mediterranean, taking part in joint exercises with NATO forces. 

The sources said that the new base would allow Russia to strengthen its positions in the Middle East and also enhance Syrian security. 

However, the Russian Defense Ministry has refuted the report. Russia is not building a military base in Syria, spokesman for the Ministry Colonel Vyacheslav Sedov was quoted by RIA Novosti as saying.


----------



## Kirkhill (29 Aug 2006)

http://www.cbc.ca/national/

Click on "Watch the National Online"

Go to 18:30 of the broadcast to get Terry Milewski's report.  Generally standard fare about how abysmally the Israelis performed.  The interesting bit starts at about 19:30 with the highlight at 19:50.  HvK came to mind.


----------



## Kirkhill (29 Aug 2006)

I don't usually post blog rumours but this sounds so interesting.  Can anybody confirm any of the details?



> Under the nose of the Lebanese Army and the non existent UNIFIL2
> 
> Hizbullah has dismantled 14 posts on the Israel-Lebanon border near the Shaba Farms, Lebanese security sources reported on Monday.
> 
> ...



http://www.bigpharaoh.com/2006/08/28/now-tongues-are-loose/

Olmert may end up losing - but it seems it might be coming more likely that Nasrallah, Assad and Ahmadinejad didn't win either.   The worst thing that could happen to Nasrallah is to lose leverage with the Lebanese government while the worst outcome for Assad and Ahmadinejad could be the loss of their plausibly deniable option.  This one still seems to be shaking down.


----------



## geo (29 Aug 2006)

well, watched the news last night, they were showing IDF entering & doing demolition of a Hisbolah bunker..... that was almost right under a UNIFIL OP on the DMZ between Lebanon & Israel ... and people still wonder why the IDF would have fired / bombed right next to / onto a UNIFIL OP and kill UN observers .......


----------



## Kirkhill (29 Aug 2006)

http://forums.army.ca/forums/threads/47186/post-434821.html#msg434821

geo - that clip is on-line here.  Perhaps someone better skilled than me can download the article and save it for posterity.


----------



## Blakey (9 Nov 2006)

> *Israeli tanks kill 18 Palestinians, truce ended*
> 
> The Hamas chief declared Wednesday that a truce with Israel is over after an Israeli tank attack that killed 18 Palestinians earlier that day.



More here


So much for the UN...(?)


----------



## Ex-Dragoon (9 Nov 2006)

The UN did not send troops into GAZA, you are thinking Lebanon....


----------



## geo (9 Nov 2006)

easy to confuse Hamas with Hezbolah.............
IDF last week fired onto Hamas guerillas... and suddenly, Palestinian women heard the call for help and made themselves shields between the IDF and the gunmen.
This week, it's IDF guns firing onto a Hamas rocket launching site......... near Palestinian kids.  Go figure....

Makes me sick!

Grrr... frustrating!


----------



## Blakey (9 Nov 2006)

Ex-Dragoon said:
			
		

> The UN did not send troops into GAZA, you are thinking Lebanon....



oops, my bad


----------



## derael (10 Nov 2006)

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/775387.html



> Commanders of the French contingent of the United Nations force in Lebanon have warned that they might have to open fire if Israel Air Force warplanes continue their overflights in Lebanon, Defense Minister Amir Peretz told the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee on Monday.



I orginally read about this in the Edmonton Journal. Apparently French forces in Lebanon (whom appear to be FFL) were about 2 seconds from firing on a pair of Israeli fighters who were diving in on their position and making passes.

It seems like a dangerous situation to say the least.


----------



## a_majoor (21 Nov 2006)

The power struggle in Lebanon continues: How are Syria and Iran involved these days?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/6169606.stm



> *Lebanese Christian leader killed *
> 
> Pierre Gemayel, a leading anti-Syrian Lebanese minister and Maronite Christian leader, has been killed in the capital, Beirut.
> Mr Gemayel, 34, was shot in his car in a Christian suburb and rushed to hospital, where he died.
> ...


----------



## tomahawk6 (21 Nov 2006)

A coup attempt by Hizbollah could see a war breakout. Israel will not allow Hizbollah to take control of Lebanon. Iran and Syria are behind Hizbollah 100% this in effect is the first stage in their attempt to overthrow the governments of moderate nation's in the region.The UNSC could use UNIFIl to disarm Hizbollah. Israel could invade forcing Hizbollah to fight on two fronts. The US could deploy forces in support of UNIFIL. The Syrian Army could cross into Lebanon to support Hizbollah. It could be a real mess.

http://yalibnan.com/site/archives/2006/11/coup_detat_unde.php

By Omar Raad, 
Ya Libnan Volunteer
Beirut - The assassination of Pierre Gemayel means that two more ministers need to resign or be killed in order to bring down the anti-Syrian government.

As if one assassination were not enough bloodshed for one day, the murderers proceeded to target another anti-Syrian Member of Parliament - Michel Pharaon. 

Syria's allies in Lebanon are planning to take the streets on Thursday to demand the government resign. The pro-Syrian allies in Lebanon include Hezbollah, Michel Aoun's political party and Nabih Berri's Amal movement.

Syria behind violent overthrow?

As documented in the U.N. investigation, Syria has openly threatened Lebanese politicians who dare to defy their orders. The Syrian regime has been determined to block the international U.N. tribunal at any cost, including the cost of stability in Lebanon.

Just hours after killing Gemayel, gunmen opened fire on the office of a minister of state.

"The office of the state minister for parliamentary affairs, Michel Pharaon, in the Ashrafieh neighborhood was the target of gunshots today from gunmen in a white Suzuki car," according to a statement by the minister's office.

"The security forces cordoned off the area and is carrying out the necessary measures to identify the culprits," who fled the scene, it said.

Pharaon is a Greek-Catholic Christian MP from the bloc of anti-Syrian parliamentary majority leader Saad Hariri.

Brother, niece and son died for the cause

The father of Pierre Gemayel a Lebanese anti-Syrian minister who was killed today urged supporters to remain calm and avoid retribution. "I have one wish, that tonight be a night of prayer to contemplate the meaning of this martyrdom and how to protect this country," Former President Amin Gemayel told reporters outside a hospital where the body of his son Industry Minister Pierre Gemayel was taken.

"I call on all those who appreciate Pierre's martyrdom to preserve his cause and for all of us to remain at the service of Lebanon. We don't want reactions and revenge," he said.

"My brother died for the cause, my niece died for the cause and now my son died for the cause."

In a speech by the Prime Minister, Fouad Siniora, he called for all Lebanese to come together "to defend the security and their country."

He continued, adding: "To your beloved parents, to your wife and children, and to all your friends and to all the freedom loving people, I promise you your blood will not be shed in vain.

On behalf of the government, my brother, my friend and colleague, the minister the young Pierre Gemayel, give my regards to Rafik (Hariri) and all his companions. Say hello to Samir (Kassir), George (Hawi), Gebran (Tueni), and all those freedom loving people, and tell them they did not die in vain, but they died for the homeland, and you have joined them today.

Walid Jumblatt visited the hospital and made a short statement amid anti-Aoun and anti-Nasrallah chants. He affirmed that the international tribunal is coming and warned against civil strife. "They want to create civil strife... We will triumph. We will not let them drag us to sedition," he said.

"As we were on that great day (March 14) with Pierre in the lead, peaceful and democratic for Lebanon, we will remain," he added.


----------



## Bert (21 Nov 2006)

And a mess it seems.

Heres Stratfor's take on it.

Lebanon: An Assassination and Rising Tensions
www.stratfor.com

Summary

Lebanese Industry Minister Pierre Gemayel was killed Nov. 21 in a Beirut neighborhood where a pro-Syrian party is known to have a large presence. As Gemayel was an outspoken critic of Hezbollah and a member of Lebanon's anti-Syrian movement, Syrian intelligence likely staged the shooting as part of an intimidation strategy to keep the lid on the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri. Hezbollah will use the momentum generated by the Gemayel assassination to further its plans to plunge Lebanon into a constitutional crisis. 

Analysis

Lebanese Industry Minister Pierre Gemayel was shot dead Nov. 21 by gunmen as his convoy passed through Beirut's Greek Orthodox Sin el-Fil neighborhood, where the pro-Damascus Syrian Social Nationalist Party has a large presence. Gemayel was staunchly opposed to Hezbollah and was a leader of the March 14 alliance, the anti-Syrian coalition that holds a majority in the Lebanese parliament and has been outspoken about Syria's alleged involvement in the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri. Gemayel is the first anti-Syrian politician to be killed since Gebran Tueni, who was assassinated in a car bombing in December 2005. 

There is little doubt that Syria's widespread intelligence and security apparatus organized Gemayel's assassination. The Lebanese government was poised to approve legislation for the formation of an international tribunal to try suspects in the al-Hariri assassination, which has made the Syrian regime and its allies in Lebanon nervous, to say the least. To thwart the tribunal formation and ensure that the government remains in gridlock, five of Lebanon's Shiite Cabinet ministers belonging to Hezbollah and the Amal Movement resigned Nov. 11. Pro-Syrian Lebanese President Emile Lahoud also has refused to sign any decree on the tribunal. 

Following the summer conflict with Israel, radical Shiite Islamist group Hezbollah has seized the opportunity to fortify its political position in Lebanon by forcing an expansion of the Lebanese Cabinet that would give Shiite parliament members veto power to counter the anti-Syrian March 14 coalition. To achieve this, Hezbollah has escalated sectarian tensions in the country and organized massive demonstrations in Beirut in an effort to prove it can control the decisions of the Lebanese government with or without majority political representation. 

Now that Gemayel has been eliminated from the Cabinet, only one more Cabinet position needs to fall in order for the government to lose its constitutionality. Gemayel's assassination is part of a strategy to bring down the Lebanese government and force new elections that could favor Hezbollah and its Shiite allies. 

The United Nations' final document on the al-Hariri tribunal is still awaiting submission to the Lebanese parliament for approval. Hezbollah plans to orchestrate the resignations of Shiite parliamentary deputies and Maronite parliament members from the bloc of former Lebanese Prime Minster Gen. Michel Aoun before the vote is cast. Shiite parliament speaker Nabih Berri also could resign to prevent the tribunal deliberations from proceeding. In Hezbollah's mind, the formation of a constitutional crisis is in full swing.

The Syrian government shares Hezbollah's confidence; it has been empowered now that Washington and Baghdad are moving toward a new strategy to contain violence in Iraq that could involve pulling Syria out of diplomatic isolation. The Syrians feel that their position is stronger now that they have officially resumed diplomatic relations with Iraq and have Iran as their protector in the region. Moreover, the Syrian government apparently believes it can afford to use its intelligence agents to carry out assassinations without facing any major threat. The summer conflict left Israel politically paralyzed, and the country does not have the stomach to deal with the tornado that would follow any attempts bring down the Syrian regime or re-engage Hezbollah's military forces. At the same time, the United States is desperately searching for an exit strategy for Iraq, and Syria's role in controlling insurgent traffic across its border will be key in bringing the security situation under control. The confidence exhibited by the Syrian regime, however, does not guarantee Damascus a place at the negotiating table. Washington is already struggling to deal with Iran's rising influence in the region and will be reluctant to forge any agreements with Iran's partners in Syria or Lebanon that would facilitate Hezbollah's political ambitions.

Though Syria will vehemently deny any role in the Gemayel killing and will join the March 14 forces in condemning the act, the fingerprints of Syrian President Bashar al Assad's regime are all over this latest assassination. Massive demonstrations will take place, with Hezbollah, Amal and their allies in Aoun's Maronite Christian movement on one side and the anti-Syrian March 14 alliance on the other. As communal tensions in the country heat up, the stirrings of another Lebanese civil war will become increasingly apparent.

The Lebanese army already has deployed four brigades to greater Beirut to assume combat readiness in case Hezbollah forces attack Sunnis in West Beirut. Lebanon's Sunni bloc, led by the al-Hariri clan and their regional Arab allies, also has sent a number of fighters to Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Egypt to receive military training in order to counter Hezbollah's well-equipped and well-trained military forces. In the meantime, Syria continues to send reinforcements to its allies in Lebanon. Syrian army officers who previously served in Lebanon have infiltrated the country and are leading combat units of their allies in Hezbollah, pro-Syrian groups and the Syrian Social Nationalist Party. Furthermore, about 2,500 Syrian troops masquerading as laborers have joined the ranks of the anti-government forces in Lebanon.

Though Hezbollah is unlikely to engage in a military confrontation at this time in order to preserve its legitimacy as a resistance movement acting in the interests of the Lebanese people, an outbreak of hostilities between Lebanon's rival factions is a real possibility.



Shared in accordance with the "fair dealing" provisions, Section 29, of the Copyright Act - http://www.cb-cda.gc.ca/info/act-e.html#rid-33409


----------



## geo (22 Nov 2006)

Yup, we're definitely living in interesting times.


----------



## warspite (5 Dec 2006)

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> A coup attempt by Hizbollah could see a war breakout.


Does a popular uprising count as a coup...?

http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2006/12/05/lebanon-protests.html

Looks like things are really starting to heat up....


----------



## Mike Baker (5 Dec 2006)

warspite said:
			
		

> Does a popular uprising count as a coup...?



From Wikipedia

A coup d’État (pronounced /ku de'ta/), or simply coup, is the sudden overthrow of a government through unconstitutional means by a part of the state establishment — mostly replacing just the high-level figures. It is also an example of political engineering. It may or may not be violent in nature. It is different from a revolution, which is staged by a larger group and radically changes the political system. The term is French for "a (sudden) blow (or strike) to a state" (literally, coup, hit, and État, state, always written with a capital É in this meaning). The term coup can also be used in a casual sense to mean a gain in advantage of one nation or entity over another; e.g. an intelligence coup. By analogy, the term is also applied to corporations, etc; e.g. a boardroom coup.

Since the unsuccessful coup attempts of Wolfgang Kapp in 1920, and of Adolf Hitler in 1923, the German word "Putsch" (originally coined with the Züriputsch of 1839) is often used also, even in French (such as the putsch of November 8, 1942 and the putsch of April 21, 1961, both in Algiers) and Russian (August Putsch in 1991), while the direct German translation is Staatsstreich.

Tactically, a coup usually involves control of some active portion of the military while neutralizing the remainder of a country's armed services. This active group captures or expels leaders, seizes physical control of important government offices, means of communication, and the physical infrastructure, such as streets and power plants. The coup succeeds if its opponents fail to dislodge the plotters, allowing them to consolidate their position, obtain the surrender or acquiescence of the populace and surviving armed forces, and claim legitimacy.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coup

Well, it can happen IMO. A few well thought out attacks through the country while this is happining...hmmm.


----------



## tomahawk6 (5 Dec 2006)

I wouldnt call the Hizbollah mob as a popular uprising, its more like the minority trying to intimidate the majority population [christians/sunni's]. Hizbollah wants to take over the government they are supported by Syria and Iran. I doubt that Israel is going to stand by as hizbollah takes over Lebanon. UNIFIL is in a very dangerous position right now because Lebanon can explode into civil war at any time.


----------



## geo (5 Dec 2006)

Hizbollah is a popular uprising?
I don't think so.  Hizbollah operates at the pleasure of Syria and Iran
Syria was not happy at all when the Lebanese gov't asked them to leave the country.  The political assasinations that have happened since then are all against politicians who have been vocal in their opposition to Syrian involvment in Lebanese affairs.
After the fight against Israel, hezbollah was dolling out reconstruction $$$ to the peasant masses - where do you think that load of cash came from? - Petrocash - all in nice new US$ currency.


----------



## tamouh (5 Dec 2006)

I think debating whether current situation in Lebanon constitute a coupe is useless. We all know the fact of what is happening on the ground. Hezbollah Shia'as and Christian Militias supporting the ex-exiled president Michele Aoun with the green light from Syria and Iran are attempting to "Democratically" through fully legitimate protests to overthrow the current "Democratically" elected Lebanese govt.

Obviously, the parties involved are fully aware that in Lebanon especially, you can't have protests and civil disobedience without the end result being sectarian clashes.

Israel in my opinion will not dare to involve itself in another dirty war, especially one that will likely turn into a civil war like Iraq today.

In the short term ladies & gents, for the first time in their history, the Shia'as fanatics will finally have control over the region from the Gulf to the Sea. (Just to add, the Jordanians and the Saudis are already s***ing in their pants)


----------



## 1feral1 (6 Dec 2006)

Israels dirty war? Its not all Israel's doing. At least they dont kidnapp and behead people!

I will admit it is a civil war in Iraq, so we can agree on that.

Wes


----------



## geo (6 Dec 2006)

Wes,

For the most part, all countries in the middle east have contributed to the godawful mess that we (you) are in right now.  Plenty of blame to go around - - when we should be looking for solutions instead of guilty bastards........ IMHO


----------



## midget-boyd91 (8 May 2008)

Time for the next round?
*"War has started" Hezbollah leader says*

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/meast/05/08/lebanon.hezbollah/index.html



> BEIRUT, Lebanon (CNN) -- Gunfire broke out in downtown Beirut Thursday after Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said recent government actions amount to "a declaration of open war."
> 
> "Just in the past few minutes ... things have gotten a lot worse," CNN's Cal Perry reported from downtown Beirut. The sound of gunfire and rocket-propelled grenades could be heard throughout his live reports.
> 
> ...



Midget


----------



## Colin Parkinson (8 May 2008)

Who needs a democratic election when you can win by assassination, ironic as I believe the term came from an area in Syria/Lebanon


----------



## Mike Baker (10 May 2008)

PM urges Lebanese army to halt Hezbollah 'coup'




> BEIRUT, Lebanon (CNN) -- Prime Minister Fouad Siniora accused Hezbollah of trying to stage a "militant coup d'etat" on Saturday in his first public comments since violence began three days ago in Beirut.
> 
> He also called for the army to intervene after Hezbollah militants took control of the Lebanese capital's western suburbs.
> 
> ...


----------



## tomahawk6 (10 May 2008)

Al Qaeda has called upon its operatives to go to Lebanon to defend the Sunni community.


----------



## Fishbone Jones (10 May 2008)

> "We thought the threat our country was from our historic enemy Israel. *But recent experience now shows that our homes and our democracy is being held hostage by our own brothers, who want to create coup and terror*," Siniora said in a televised address.



Lay down with a dog, you're going to get fleas. 

I think maybe it's time that Canadian/ Lebanese/ Canadian citizens, with the interest in staying there, took up arms and forced out the terrorists. Either that, or abandon it for good and don't keep going back. Pick a country and stay there.


----------



## TCBF (10 May 2008)

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> Al Qaeda has called upon its operatives to go to Lebanon to defend the Sunni community.




- This is working out even better than I thought...

 8)


----------



## TCBF (10 May 2008)

recceguy said:
			
		

> ... Pick a country and stay there.



- Pretty much sums up my thoughts on Citizenship.


----------



## geo (12 May 2008)

Well,  from a personal perspective, I certainly hope that the Canadian govt does not get suckered (again) into chartering boats & planes for ersatz Canadian citzens who want to scramble out of the gun sights AGAIN !!!

If you throw yourself in front of a train once, I'll save you, 
If you do it again, I'll save you BUT
If you do it again, I WILL ensure that you won't do it another time... 

Time for a bunch of citzenships to be revoked... IMHO!


----------



## Colin Parkinson (12 May 2008)

Nay, do it the Canadian way, tell them that a sealift will start as soon as the environmetal reviews are complete, as well as ensuring all relevent First Nations are consulted. Also inform them that help will be on the way as soon as they find a carbon neutral vessel to charter.


----------



## Richie (12 May 2008)

I wonder how the Druze fit into all of this; there are hundreds of thousands of Druze in both Israel and Lebanon. Israeli Druze serve in the army, do Lebanese Druze serve in that country's army? From what I've read, the Druze are excellent soldiers but what happens when they are torn between national and religious loyalties or obligations? What a mess! 

As far as the Lebanese-"Canadians" are concerned, they've made their choice and they can live with it. In 2006 they came back to Canada just long enough to raise funds for Hezbollah and then headed back to their own country. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me...


----------



## old medic (29 Nov 2008)

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/wire/sns-ap-un-un-lebanon-hariri,1,3927951.story


UN chief expects tribunal to prosecute suspects in Hariri killing to start March 1
By Associated Press
4:15 PM PST, November 28, 2008
UNITED NATIONS (AP) _





> Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said Friday he expects the international tribunal that will prosecute suspects in the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri to start operating on March 1, 2009.
> 
> But in a report to the U.N. Security Council, Ban said his final decision on a starting date will be influenced by the response to his appeal for additional funding for the tribunal's operation.
> 
> ...


----------



## Colin Parkinson (30 Nov 2008)

Richie said:
			
		

> I wonder how the Druze fit into all of this; there are hundreds of thousands of Druze in both Israel and Lebanon. Israeli Druze serve in the army, do Lebanese Druze serve in that country's army? From what I've read, the Druze are excellent soldiers but what happens when they are torn between national and religious loyalties or obligations? What a mess!
> 
> As far as the Lebanese-"Canadians" are concerned, they've made their choice and they can live with it. In 2006 they came back to Canada just long enough to raise funds for Hezbollah and then headed back to their own country. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me...



When Hezbollah stormed central Beirut recently, they meet minimal resistance, but in the hills outside which are a Druze stronghold, they got into pitched battles which they lost and had to withdraw without being able to gain anything from the Druze. Also apparently, Druze that had been serving with Hezbollah deserted and came back to defend their villages from them.


----------



## old medic (16 Jan 2009)

Martyrdom beckons Lebanese teen, but she really wants to direct
Borzou Daragahi  Los Angeles Times
13 January 2009
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-hiba13-2009jan13,0,1944299.story


Hiba, 18, says she is bored with kids her age. Rather than shop, gossip and chitchat about clothes and makeup, she'd rather spend a free afternoon at the swimming pool or surfing the Web for news of the world.
Aspiring filmmaker Hiba Qassir is about to graduate from a Hezbollah-backed high school. She loves movies, but would give up her career dream if offered the chance to be a suicide bomber.




> Reporting from Tyre, Lebanon -- Hiba Qassir dreams of making movies. She's ambitious and precocious enough. At 18, she's taught herself how to edit video and sound on a computer, and has her sights set on directing gripping social and psychological dramas.
> 
> But if the movie business doesn't work out, that's OK. She has other dreams: perhaps to become a cop or a pilot. Or maybe a suicide bomber.
> 
> "Martyrdom is the shortest way to heaven, and the history of martyrdom is not like any history," Hiba says. "It made victory. We wouldn't have achieved victory without these martyrdoms.".........



More at Link


----------



## geo (16 Jan 2009)

Ahhhh radical Islam....

Children should be dreaming of sugar plumbs & faeries...
When babes are dreaming of becoming martyrs & doing harm with bombs - you know that the Islamic faith has taken a wrong turn


----------



## zipperhead_cop (19 Jan 2009)

A timely poster, albeit not a new one:


----------



## geo (20 Jan 2009)

I for one am happy that the people of Lebanon (for the most part) decided to sit out the Gaza dustup without meddling on their side of the frontier.  After all the hardships Lebanon has gone thru over the last 30+ years, another winless war is something they could very well do without.


----------



## Yrys (13 Apr 2009)

Country profile: Lebanon, 10 March 2009
 Timeline: Lebanon (1920 to March 2009), 10 March 2009








Lebanon's drug mafia blamed in death of 4 soldiers

Four soldiers killed in Lebanon

Four Lebanese soldiers have been killed in an attack on an army patrol, according to media reports.

The attack was near Zahle, in the Bekaa Valley, eastern Lebanon. Reports said between one and 13 
people were injured. The motive was unclear, but could be linked to tribal tension about the army's 
recent efforts to crack down on drug smuggling in the area.

Bekaa Valley is a stronghold of the Shia Islamist movement, Hezbollah. The army has not commented
on the attack. Gunmen reportedly attacked the army patrol with rocket-propelled grenades on a major
road. 

The area has seen sectarian violence in recent years, and has a history of drug production. The Bekaa 
Valley became notorious for the production of hashish and opium during the 1975-90 civil war, but 
cultivation was largely eradicated by the government in the early 1990s. However, the failure of 
alternative crops to generate income for farmers has led some to resort to illegal harvests again.


----------



## old medic (7 Jun 2009)

Hezbollah, allies lose Lebanon vote: politicians
Reuters 
By Laila Bassam Laila Bassam   – 27 mins ago
copy at : http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090607/ts_nm/us_lebanon_election



> BEIRUT (Reuters) – An anti-Syrian coalition defeated Hezbollah and its main Christian ally Michel Aoun in Lebanon's parliamentary election on Sunday, sources on both sides said.
> 
> The outcome appeared to be a blow to Syria and Iran, which support Hezbollah, and a boost to the United States, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, which back the anti-Syrian "March 14" bloc led by Sunni Muslim politician Saad al-Hariri.
> 
> ...


----------



## Colin Parkinson (8 Jun 2009)

Richie said:
			
		

> I wonder how the Druze fit into all of this; there are hundreds of thousands of Druze in both Israel and Lebanon. Israeli Druze serve in the army, do Lebanese Druze serve in that country's army? From what I've read, the Druze are excellent soldiers but what happens when they are torn between national and religious loyalties or obligations? What a mess!



The Druze have shown their loyalty lies with their home. When Hezbollah made attempts to move into the Druze hill villages at the same time they occupied the city centre, the Druze working for Hezbollah deserted and fought them, in fact the Druze fought them to a standstill and gave them a bloody nose. Israel has generally been very careful not to alienate the Druze. From my read the Druze working for Hezbollah were basically working as mercenaries.


----------



## Yrys (13 Sep 2009)

Rockets hit Israel from Lebanon






Two rockets have been fired into northern Israel from Lebanon. The Israeli military 
responded with eight shells fired into a fruit plantation near the city of Tyre, reports 
said. Remnants of a Katyusha rocket were found in Israel, police said. There were 
no reports of casualties.

Israel and the Lebanese militant and political group Hezbollah fought a devastating 
34-day war across the border in 2006. Israeli resident Ephraim Gold, who heard the 
sound of up to six explosions in the city of Nahariya - some 6 miles (9.6km) from the 
border with Lebanon - told the BBC News website that the rockets had sparked panic.

"People were screaming, running away," he said. "It's been quiet here for so long, this 
was completely unexpected. "The sirens went off. Everybody is in bunkers. The children 
had to leave their schools." He said Israeli troops were in the area to investigate the 
source of the attacks.

Both UN peacekeepers in Lebanon, who have a remit to monitor the Israeli border, and 
the Lebanese army deployed extra troops following the rocket launches, a UN spokes-
woman said.

Unifil (the UN Interim Force in Lebanon) said: "Unifil is in contact with both sides, urging 
them to exercise maximum restraint, uphold the cessations of hostilities and avoid taking 
steps which would lead to further escalation." Unifil was set up in 1978 after Israel invaded 
Lebanon, and was expanded after Israel's 2006 war with Hezbollah. The 2006 war was trig-
gered by a Hezbollah raid into Israel, in which the group seized two soldiers and killed others.

On the Lebanese side more than 1,000 people died, mostly civilians. About 160 Israelis - most 
of them soldiers - died in the fighting and rocket fire. The border has been tense, but largely 
quiet. There have been occasional clashes and rocket fire. The Associated Press says this is the 
fourth such attack in 2009.

Palestinian militant groups operating in Lebanon are often blamed.


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