# US vs OPEC "Oil War" (trade war)?



## CougarKing (2 Dec 2014)

Perhaps Saudi Arabia can't stop the US from becoming the next energy superpower with the oil fracking boom:

CNBC



> *What US should do to fight this 'oil war': Insana*
> CNBC – 22 hours ago
> 
> Saudi Arabia, and its fellow members of OPEC, may have just launched an oil war. At the conclusion of its December conference, held in Vienna on Thanksgiving Day, OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, decided not to cut oil production to halt the better than 30-percent drop in the price of crude oil this year.
> ...





> *OPEC is wrong to think it can outlast U.S. on oil prices*
> Technology is cheaper and West doesn't use oil to fund a welfare state
> 
> By TIM MULLANEY
> ...



*Market Watch*


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## Bruce Monkhouse (2 Dec 2014)

I think it's Russia who'll take the brink of this pain................gee, SA and Russia taking it dry.  Awwwwww,......


http://www.thestar.com/business/economy/2014/12/02/sanctions_falling_oil_prices_to_push_russia_into_recession.html
By:  Associated Press,  Published on Tue Dec 02/2014

MOSCOW—The Russian government has acknowledged that the country will fall into recession next year, battered by the combination of Western sanctions and a plunge in the price of its oil exports.
The news caused the stock market to drop and pushed the ruble to a fresh record low against the dollar.

The economic development ministry on Tuesday revised its GDP forecast for 2015 from growth of 1.2 per cent to a drop of 0.8 per cent. Russian households are expected to take hit, with disposable income seen declining by 2.8 per cent against the previously expected 0.4 per cent growth.
Russia’s economic outlook is at the mercy of the global market for oil, a key export that finances the bulk of the state budget. Sanctions over Moscow’s role in eastern Ukraine are making things worse, hurting Russian banks and investment sentiment in particular.

MORE AT LINK


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## Oldgateboatdriver (2 Dec 2014)

Here's a suggestion for where saudi Arabia can make a cut: Stop financing the Madrassas and financing the export of Wahhabism around the world.


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## CougarKing (7 Dec 2014)

> *Saudis Fire Again in Oil War Against U.S. Shale*
> By Phil Flynn
> The Energy Report
> Published December 05, 2014
> ...


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## tomahawk6 (7 Dec 2014)

The game is about over for OPEC and they see the hand writing on the wall.Energy independence will be huge for the US.


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## MAJONES (7 Dec 2014)

I recall reading somewhere that ISIS was funding themselves with oil exports.  I can't help but wonder if this oils price war isn't aimed at taking their financial legs out from under them.  I confess that I don't know how the Saudi Brand of Islam jives with the ISIS brand.


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## Edward Campbell (7 Dec 2014)

The Saudi brand of islam, the approved brand by the Royal family, is one of a tint handful of such _brands_ that animate most, almost all of the _fundamentalist_, _jihadist_ sects of Islam. It is based on an old, medieval reading of the texts and refuses to (cannot?) accept the nature of the  modern world.

Stamp out Saudi Arabia ~ completely ~ and islam can star over, in peace.


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## Colin Parkinson (8 Dec 2014)

Oldgateboatdriver said:
			
		

> Here's a suggestion for where saudi Arabia can make a cut: Stop financing the Madrassas and financing the export of Wahhabism around the world.



A good post and to the point, we will be reaping the spoiled grain they have sowed for many years to come even if the money stopped tomorrow.


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## cupper (9 Dec 2014)

Some economists are predicting that the World Oil Price Limbo Contest could hit $43 a barrel in 2015.

I don't think that OPEC has had any real relevance for a while now, and the Saudis are just trying to maintain market share at the detriment of all other Cartel members. And their production levels were like highway speed limits anyway, just suggestions rather than hard and fast caps.


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## CougarKing (20 Dec 2014)

Associated Press



> *Steep oil plunge slams Russia, Venezuela but US, China other big economies stand to benefit*
> By Jonathan Fahey, The Associated Press | The Canadian Press – Fri, 19 Dec, 2014
> 
> NEW YORK, N.Y. - Oil's plunge is spreading both pain and gain across the globe.
> ...


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## Colin Parkinson (29 Dec 2014)

SA will be burning through it's cash reserves with this action and the US can ramp up hale gas at anytime it wants. It would be in Canada's and US interests to help companies involved in this field by giving tax breaks, and investing in improving the technology.


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## a_majoor (29 Dec 2014)

Burning through cash reserves is a sort of relative term; the Sauds have a war chest of over $700 billion petrodollars, so can afford to stay the course for a while.

What really matters is who will "blink" first: the Iranians certainly don't have the same amount of cash on hand, but Russia has a bigger economy and might be able to hold on long enough for Saudi Arabia to start to worry about how they will subsidize their huge pool of unemployed and unemployable youths.

The United States has a much larger economy compared to Russia, but since they are struggling with a massive debt and spending issue, there are more variables than how much shale gas they can extract.


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## Rifleman62 (29 Dec 2014)

Colin P: 





> SA will be burning through it's cash reserves with this action and the US can ramp up hale gas at anytime it wants. It would be in Canada's and US interests to help companies involved in this field by giving tax breaks, and investing in improving the technology.



Dream world. Can you imagine the NDP and the Liberals looking at the big picture and agreeing with this? Obama is already at WAR with ALL sources of fossil fuels.


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## Colin Parkinson (29 Dec 2014)

Which is roughly 3 years worth at their current rates according to this article, which in real terms with some income still coming in likely means 5-6 years. 

_Partly in response to unrest in the Arab world, Saudi Arabia boosted spending to a record 804 billion riyals ($214 billion) in 2011, 39 percent more than initially planned and 23 percent higher than in 2010, its fastest growth in a decade._

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/07/saudi-imf-idUSL6E8J7ABJ20120807


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## GAP (29 Dec 2014)

Well, from the little I have heard, which is nothing, at least Russia is not able to hold Europe to ransom with the price of oil this winter....they just get it, at a decent rate, from the Arabs....ahh, gee  ;D


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## a_majoor (5 Jan 2015)

Amazingly, everyone is racing to produce as much oil as they possibly can. Getting some cash is probably better than getting no cash at all, and we will soon see just where the brewing point is for the high tech oil extraction like fracking and oil sand production as prices sag to $50/barrel. This is causing some very unexpected second and third order effects as well:

http://nextbigfuture.com/2015/01/oil-lowest-price-since-2009-as-russia.html



> *Oil lowest price since 2009 as Russia Boosts Production and Euro lowest since 2005 on new Greece Crisis Fears*
> 
> Oil dropped to the lowest in more than five and a half years amid growing supply from Russia and Iraq and signs of manufacturing weakness in Europe and China.
> 
> ...


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## CougarKing (6 Jan 2015)

The Saudis slashing oil prices nearly everywhere...

Reuters



> *Saudi slashes monthly oil prices to Europe; trims U.S., ups Asia*
> 
> NEW YORK (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia made deep cuts to its monthly oil prices for European buyers on Monday, a move some analysts said reflects the kingdom's deepening defense of market share, although it also hiked prices in Asia from record lows.
> 
> ...


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## CougarKing (6 Jan 2015)

Our part in this showdown:

Yahoo Finance/Reuters



> *High Noon on the Gulf Coast: Canada, Saudi oil set for showdown*
> 
> NEW YORK (Reuters) - As a test of wills between OPEC nations and U.S. shale drillers fuels a global oil market slump, a brewing battle between Canadian and Saudi Arabia heavy crudes for America's Gulf Coast refinery market threatens to drive prices even lower.
> While the stand-off between the oil cartel and U.S. producers of light, sweet shale oil has captured the limelight in recent months, the clash over heavier grades - playing out in the shadowy, opaque physical market - may put even more pressure on global prices that have halved since mid-2014.
> ...


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## jollyjacktar (6 Jan 2015)

There seems to be a problem with the thought of Keystone going through at the moment.

Shared under the fair dealing provisions of the copyright act.

CBC Story Link



> *[size=14pt]Keystone bill would be vetoed by Obama, White House says
> 
> [/size]*Republican-controlled U.S. Congress eager to flex muscles on energy file
> 
> ...


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## CougarKing (23 Jan 2015)

Never again? Or so what just one Saudi prince says.

Market Watch



> *Oil above $100? Never again, says Saudi Prince Alwaleed*
> 
> Updated to reflect comments from Saudi Prince al-Waleed made to CNBC on Friday Jan. 23
> 
> ...


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## Colin Parkinson (26 Jan 2015)

Keystone is not one pipeline, but a series of interconnected pipelines, so bit by bit the infrastructure will be in place awaiting the final bit that goes across the border and triggers the regulatory requirements being discussed.


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## Lightguns (26 Jan 2015)

Jeez whatever happened to Peak Oil.  Betcha there is about to be a downturn in the finances of a bunch of "Canadian" eco-groups.


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## cupper (26 Jan 2015)

Colin P said:
			
		

> Keystone is not one pipeline, but a series of interconnected pipelines, so bit by bit the infrastructure will be in place awaiting the final bit that goes across the border and triggers the regulatory requirements being discussed.



And that will be the most expensive section of pipe ever fabricated and installed. :nod:


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## Colin Parkinson (27 Jan 2015)

Lightguns said:
			
		

> Jeez whatever happened to Peak Oil.  Betcha there is about to be a downturn in the finances of a bunch of "Canadian" eco-groups.



peak oil is just so 20th century.


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## CougarKing (19 Feb 2015)

Reuters



> *Oil falls sharply as U.S. crude inventories rise*
> 
> By Claire Milhench
> 
> ...


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## jollyjacktar (19 Feb 2015)

Supply might be rising, but it isn't stopping the pumps being jacked up here as I am sure is happening everywhere...


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## SeaKingTacco (19 Feb 2015)

That is because gasoline is priced in USD. As the Canadian Dollar falls, the price of gasoline rises.

TANSTAAFL.


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## YZT580 (19 Feb 2015)

oh really!  Then why was it that when the dollar was on its way up the price of fuel wasn't on its way down, even a little bit?  Reminds me of global warming.  If you get snow its gw if you don't get snow its gw.


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## SeaKingTacco (19 Feb 2015)

YZT580 said:
			
		

> oh really!  Then why was it that when the dollar was on its way up the price of fuel wasn't on its way down, even a little bit?  Reminds me of global warming.  If you get snow its gw if you don't get snow its gw.



Because the price of crude was also on its way up.


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## cupper (19 Feb 2015)

SeaKingTacco said:
			
		

> Because the price of crude was also on its way up.



That's what they want you to think. :Tin-Foil-Hat:


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## Robert0288 (19 Feb 2015)

Still cheaper to buy gas in the US, even with the exchange rate.  BC taxes in the lower mainland are killer.


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## TCBF (19 Feb 2015)

- This thread should be joined with the "...World Without Oil..." thread so we can watch a bunch of people eat crow. 

- This was coming for awhile. The Saudis understand that if the Iranians had one little bundle of E=MC2, they would sooner use it on Riyadh than Tel Aviv. 

- Exploration side of the patch is fragile at the moments. Large construction projects past the point of no return are still being worked on.

- The big players see opportunity here. A lot of small and aggressive firms may have been caught between two bases. Some good assets will be on the block, and some good talent as well.

- Nobody likes a slowdown, but... if you had a plan, you can keep your workers and pick up some good people freshly cast adrift. On the other hand, losing workers during a downturn means you might never see them come back. They find a more reliable go, or go back to school, or retire early, or have a kid, etc. etc.

- We need Canadian pipelines to Canadian refineries at tidewater. Dartmouth is slowing down and would be viable if modified for heavy oil.
- Keystone is not our friend. We should refine it where we mine it and export only our surpluses. Probably twenty years too late for that now.


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## SeaKingTacco (20 Feb 2015)

Dartmouth refinery is shut, last time I looked.


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## jollyjacktar (20 Feb 2015)

TCBF said:
			
		

> - We need Canadian pipelines to Canadian refineries at tidewater. Dartmouth is slowing down and would be viable if modified for heavy oil.



No, sorry.  IOL Dartmouth is not viable.  It was looked at by the company as could they, should they and it was decided not to attempt as the facility is too old to make an upgrade worth the time or money.  It is a shame that Ultramar sold and shipped off their refinery just under 20 years ago.



			
				SeaKingTacco said:
			
		

> Dartmouth refinery is shut, last time I looked.



I have not been by there since they ceased refining, I guess what they have left is in storage.  I don't know what they plan to do after the tanks are empty.


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## SeaKingTacco (20 Feb 2015)

My understanding is that ESSO will continue to use Dartmouth as a storage and distribution point, after the refinery is dismantled and (probably) sold into the third world, somewhere.


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## jollyjacktar (20 Feb 2015)

That makes sense.  I suppose they'll get a few bucks for the refinery.


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## Colin Parkinson (20 Feb 2015)

Here in Vancouver, Chevron shut it's refinery down on a 6 week planned shutdown forcing more of the local demand to be bought from further afield. This is the biggest refinery in BC. Also the US strikes is effecting supplies of refined products as well.


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## Retired AF Guy (20 Feb 2015)

Robert0288 said:
			
		

> Still cheaper to buy gas in the US, even with the exchange rate.  BC taxes in the lower mainland are killer.



One of the reasons, and may be the main reason, gas is cheaper in the U.S. is because they pay less taxes at the fuel pump. Here in Ontario, 30 % of the pump price is taxes (HST, provincial and federal fuel taxes). I'm willing to bet its the same its the same in the rest of Canada; except maybe Alberta which doesn't have a provincial sales tax.


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## cupper (20 Feb 2015)

Retired AF Guy said:
			
		

> One of the reasons, and may be the main reason, gas is cheaper in the U.S. is because they pay less taxes at the fuel pump. Here in Ontario, 30 % of the pump price is taxes (HST, provincial and federal fuel taxes). I'm willing to bet its the same its the same in the rest of Canada; except maybe Alberta which doesn't have a provincial sales tax.



Oil prices are lower, and refiners margins are much smaller as well. Although taxes are a big part of the price difference, overall costs are lower as well.

Currently here just outside DC we are paying $2.25 US / USGal. It actually got below $2.00 US at one point earlier this year (2015).


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## Rifleman62 (20 Feb 2015)

http://www.gasbuddy.com/Can_Tax_Info.aspx

Canada Fuel Taxes by Province

Please note the above rates are meant as only guidelines of pump taxes and may not represent the full tax amount at the pump. Source: Compiled by GasBuddy from various sources. 

http://www.gasbuddy.com/Tax_Info.aspx

Total US Fuel Taxes by State


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## CougarKing (4 Mar 2015)

To think someone actually wrote a book a few years ago called "The end of oil".  :

Associated Press



> *Oil glut: U.S. running out of room to store crude; prices for oil and gasoline could plunge*
> By Jonathan Fahey, The Associated Press
> 
> NEW YORK, N.Y. - The U.S. has so much crude that it is running out of places to put it, and that could drive oil and gasoline prices even lower in the coming months.
> ...


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## a_majoor (17 Mar 2015)

More on how the US industry is reacting to the Saudi initiatives. I think the Saudis badly miscalculated how much they could hurt the US oil industry, but they are probably comitted to their strategy since they can ride out the oil glut (although probably not for "20 years" given the amount of spending they need to prop up their internal welfare state) while still hurting Iran and Russia, Iran becasue they are apostates and a true challenger for regional hegemony and Russia because they are enablers of Iran and Syria (an Iranian ally).

One other factor to consider is any Republican Administration in the post 2016 period will likely open federal lands to oil exploration (something the current administration has banned), and allow the Keystone XL pipeline to be completed, allowing even more oil into the market. The Americans will also be very keen on using the oil weapon against Iran and Russia, as well as hammering regional troublemakers like Venezuela.

http://www.the-american-interest.com/2015/03/16/irrepressible-us-shale-defies-opec/



> *Irrepressible US Shale Defies OPEC*
> 
> When OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, chose not to cut production last November, it effectively consigned its members to a prolonged period of low prices and the financial strain, palliated only by the hope that the bear market would soon squeeze American shale producers. The petrostate cartel essentially abdicated its market-fixing role on a bet that the relatively high cost of hydraulic fracturing would make American firms the world’s new swing producers, but as the FT reports, that bet is looking more and more suspect:
> 
> ...


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## tomahawk6 (17 Mar 2015)

Low prices is a boon to the consumer and freedom from the tyranny of OPEC.


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## jollyjacktar (17 Mar 2015)

Prices are not that low here in NS with respect to the price of oil.  I'd like some freedom from the tyranny of taxes we pay for our fuel.  We are getting screwed by someone, it may be the government or big oil or a combo of the two...


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## Edward Campbell (17 Mar 2015)

Saudi Arabia (and many (most?) of the Gulf States, too, _I think_) has a serious problem. As in China, the _legitimacy_ of the ruling _party_, the royal family - House of Saud, depends upon satisfying the needs and wants of enough people. The Saudis, unlike the Chinese, have been poor managers: they have simply spent as though the oil would never, every run out. Saudi Arabia needs oil to be priced at about $100/bbl to balance its bloated (heavy on social services/transfers to individuals) budget, but $100/bbl oil could make America a (temporary)* energy superpower and change the energy power balance in the markets.

_Cui bono_? As T6 suggests: the American consumer and, that includes e.g. industries and public utilities, too; also China, which still has an insatiable demand for oil; ditto India where demand has been constrained mainly by the high price of oil. Western Europe also benefits for the same reasons America does.

Who loses? Canada? *No*, not really ... some strain, in Alberta, but Ontario gains, so it's a _wash_, really, from a _national_ perspective. The Middle East? *Yes!* Africa? *Yes!* Venezuela? *Yes!* Russia? *Yes! Yes!! Yes!!!*

_____
* There are many reports that the economical output from _fracking_ has a very limited life - I have read estimates as low as 15 years and as high as 50. Contrast that with e.g. Canada's heavy oil which is _guesstimated_ to have a life of 100+ years, even 200+ by some estimates.


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## Good2Golf (17 Mar 2015)

jollyjacktar said:
			
		

> Prices are not that low here in NS with respect to the price of oil.  I'd like some freedom from the tyranny of taxes we pay for our fuel.  We are getting screwed by someone, it may be the government or big oil or a combo of the two...



With Canada sitting (give or take) somewhere midway between the USA and Scandanavian countries regarding taxation and the social support that such levels of taxation support, only you can decide if the tax you pay for the social services you receive is acceptably balanced compared to other nations with lower or higher levels of taxation.  If you want to pay less taxes...


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## TCBF (19 Mar 2015)

- In the "Nothing is More Nervous Than a Dollar Bill" department, the recent Sprting and RV shows in Edmonton barely broke even, rumour has it.

- Also, daily vehicle counts in and out of "The Mac" for January 2015 are down by 200 - 300 vehicles per day compared to January 2014.


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## GAP (19 Mar 2015)

TCBF said:
			
		

> - In the "Nothing is More Nervous Than a Dollar Bill" department, the recent Sprting and RV shows in Edmonton barely broke even, rumour has it.



I can confirm that here in Wpg. The haulers always clean their trailers before delivering them, and this year the traffic in haulers is down about 50-60 %. The dealers are just not ordering in as many trailers...and this is the busy season because of the RV shows....


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## CougarKing (23 Mar 2015)

Let's see how much longer they can keep this up:

Reuters



> *OPEC won't bear burden of propping up oil price: Saudi minister*
> By By Rania El Gamal, Reem Shamseddine and Andrew Torchia
> 
> By Rania El Gamal, Reem Shamseddine and Andrew Torchia
> ...


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## Good2Golf (23 Mar 2015)

> Saudi Arabia has said it wants non-OPEC producers to cooperate with the group. But Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi said on Sunday *that plan had so far not worked*.




Ya figure?  ;D


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## Edward Campbell (11 Apr 2015)

This could go in any number of threads, but, Ian Bremmer, a well known and respected academic, entrepreneur and _strategist_, has just posted this graphic ...







     ... with the comment: *"Oh my, the Middle East is screwed."*

It's not _fracking_ that will give Australia, America, Canada, China and Europe energy security, it's a _balanced_ approach; it (hydraulic fracturing) will release a lot of 'new' energy in a short time but it has a finite limit ~ maybe 15 to 25 years; Canada and the USA, and the world, in fact, also have access to Canada's abundant heavy oil and to several renewable technologies ~ Texas, amongst others states, has abundant land that is not terribly _productive_ for anything much except collecting solar energy; and the Danes and Germans are demonstrating that wind energy _can_ be reliable and cheap.

It is to be hoped that Dr Bremmer is right.


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## Fishbone Jones (11 Apr 2015)

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> ............ and the Danes and Germans are demonstrating that wind energy _can_ be reliable and cheap.



Not if you have the Ontario liberals in charge :facepalm:


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## TCBF (12 Apr 2015)

recceguy said:
			
		

> Not if you have the Ontario liberals in charge :facepalm:



- Corruption is not limited to China, clearly. As well, we could certainly look at adopting their maximum penalty for it. It does cut down on repeat offences.


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## Robert0288 (12 Apr 2015)

But it's hard to hang a politician who has already left office and public life*


*For the most part


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## TCBF (12 Apr 2015)

Robert0288 said:
			
		

> But it's hard to hang a politician who has already left office and public life*
> 
> 
> *For the most part



- In many ways, it is easier, as their security detail may have been pulled back or diminished.


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## Colin Parkinson (13 Apr 2015)

In 2004 I permitted a LNG import facility, because we had 10 years of domestic gas left. In 2008 we revised that permit to change it to a export facility because there was now 70 years worth of exportable gas, beyond domestic needs.

Solar and wind can help, but for Canada there are significant difficulties with both. Geothermal and hydro is the best bet for most of Canada. Smaller run of the river systems near towns is a big help. Atlin went from Diesel generators to small hydro and is saving money for BC Hydro who had to pay for fuel to be shipped in every week. 

What I like best about Fracking is that it's broken the OPEC lock on oil supply, which will affect geopolitical thinking for generations to come.


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## Edward Campbell (13 Apr 2015)

Colin P said:
			
		

> In 2004 I permitted a LNG import facility, because we had 10 years of domestic gas left. In 2008 we revised that permit to change it to a export facility because there was now 70 years worth of exportable gas, beyond domestic needs.
> 
> Solar and wind can help, but for Canada there are significant difficulties with both. Geothermal and hydro is the best bet for most of Canada. Smaller run of the river systems near towns is a big help. Atlin went from Diesel generators to small hydro and is saving money for BC Hydro who had to pay for fuel to be shipped in every week.
> 
> What I like best about Fracking is that it's broken the OPEC lock on oil supply, which will affect geopolitical thinking for generations to come.




_I think_ we Canadians need to look at the global or, at the very least, regional energy supply and demand. To the degree that the Americans can, for example, build and integrate large scale solar power then _our_ oil lasts longer; equally to the degree that we can harness and integrate wind power (and some people think it can be developed, on a large scale, in some regions) then, once again, oil can be focused on its best use - _mobile_ applications where its power : size/weight ratio is unsurpassed - and it will last longer. We can buy solar energy from the USA and sell them oil.


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## Colin Parkinson (13 Apr 2015)

Using oil and gas to provide anything but peak power is crazy. Developing cleaner burning of coal would be a better idea, but any work in that area is unsexy for the moment, the amount of coal we have in North America is staggering.


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## Edward Campbell (13 Apr 2015)

Colin P said:
			
		

> Using oil and gas to provide anything but peak power is crazy. Developing _cleaner burning of coal_ would be a better idea, but any work in that area is unsexy for the moment, the amount of coal we have in North America is staggering.




Is "clean* coal" achievable in the near term, say the next 25 years? 

_____
* I guess the big question: is what's clean enough?


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## Colin Parkinson (13 Apr 2015)

pulverizing it and injecting it certainly ensure better burning at higher temps which reduces emissions, not a SME to really get into it. I did review one project where the power plant was to be built beside the coal seam and the front end loader takes a chunk out of the hillside and dumps it into the hopper which shortens the supply chain considerably. That project died on a change in regulations as I recall. interesting link  http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/Energy-and-Environment/-Clean-Coal--Technologies/


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## Edward Campbell (13 Apr 2015)

Colin P said:
			
		

> pulverizing it and injecting it certainly ensure better burning at higher temps which reduces emissions, not a SME to really get into it. I did review one project where the power plant was to be built beside the coal seam and the front end loader takes a chunk out of the hillside and dumps it into the hopper which shortens the supply chain considerably. That project died on a change in regulations as I recall. interesting link  http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/Energy-and-Environment/-Clean-Coal--Technologies/




Thanks, Colin, that's a useful article for we who are uninformed on energy matters.

I guess the point is that if this was all simple, as simple as oil extraction and refining, or as simple as the "experts" make out, then it would all be in place.

Reminds me, again, that Lao Tzu was right:


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## a_majoor (14 Apr 2015)

Wait a sec; who started this "pump everything you have to maintain market share" business?

http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/2999.htm



> *Counting the cost ... for 100,000 energy workers*
> OPEC Bulletin Commentary March 2015
> 
> Looking back over the past half century or so of OPEC’s existence, one can easily understand why the global petroleum sector has earned the reputation of being a boom-bust industry, characterized by instability and sporadic volatility. At varying times, the international market for crude oil, perhaps the most complex, sensitive and unpredictable of all commodities traded today, has witnessed both high and low price extremes, bringing in their respective turns perceived yet perhaps misconceived advantages for the industry’s principal stakeholders — the producers and the consumers. Previous thinking was that when crude prices were low, it was the consumers who reaped the benefits; alternatively, when they exceeded a certain level, it was the turn of the producers to smile.
> ...


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## Colin Parkinson (14 Apr 2015)

That "stability" was for OPEC benefit, not ours. Most of those countries need a fairly high price per barrel to pay off political debts and to maintain loyalties. since much of that money was used by Saudi to destabilize the Islamic world with their nutbarism, I will take this new instability over the previous.


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## CougarKing (27 Apr 2015)

Gas prices to still be a US 2016 election issue...but for different reasons than before.

CNBC



> *Why the US won't have OPEC to kick around in 2016*
> 
> As candidates for the 2016 U.S. general election gear up for a White House run, one villain of recent campaign cycles will be conspicuously absent: the cartel known as OPEC.
> 
> ...






> Vincent DeVito, a partner in Bowditch & Dewey and former U.S. assistant secretary of energy in the administration of former president George W. Bush, insists the issue of *oil should still be of major importance to presidential candidates. Oil's place as a national security issue and a booming market mean candidates should continue to address the subject.*
> 
> DeVito acknowledges that dependence on foreign oil has decreased, but he says the U.S. "has not been exercising its producer muscle" for geopolitical and national security purposes, most notably to counter Russia's ability to strong-arm its neighbors with its oil and natural gas riches.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


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## a_majoor (16 May 2015)

The American Interests suggests that the "oil war" could continue for many years to come. Low oil prices benefit ourselves (in most sectors of the economy) while hurting many nations who are depenent on oil revenues for their budgets (Saudi actions are not _exclusively_ aimed at American oil shale producers). Saudi Arabia has something like $700 billion banked away, so they should be able to hold out for several years, I am curious as to how long Iran or Russia can weather the low oil prices. (Domestically, it should be interesting to see how the NDP deals with low oil roices now that they have gained access to the piggy bank in Alberta. Watching the rest of Canada suddenly be cut off from "equalization payments" should provide the incentive to truely reform a lot of how so called "public service" is defined and delivered here as well):

http://www.the-american-interest.com/2015/05/15/strap-in-for-a-long-oil-price-war/



> *Strap in for a Long Oil Price War*
> 
> The trenches have been dug, the preparations (mostly) made, and now we’re in for a protracted price war between the entrenched petrostates of OPEC and the upstart producers fracking American shale. Both sides are pumping copious amounts of crude—some 1.5 million barrels per day more than what the market demands—and prices have subsequently crashed from a zenith of more than $110 per barrel last June to just above $65 per barrel today.
> 
> ...


----------



## TCBF (17 May 2015)

- Burning coal produces fly ash. Fly ash was ordered 'captured' years ago, which it was. What to do? Fly ash was used to diminish cement proportions in concrete (cement production is non-friendly), which it did well, and some fly ash types did better than others. Result: Alberta fly ash is used for concrete production and in some cases preferred all over North America and Hawaii. Meanwhile, the anti-coal activists have convinced the 'base' that all coal is bad. Resulting in the closing of a plant near a seam of coal that produced superb fly ash when burnt. Where will the fly ash now come from? Well, it is politically impossible to get a new coal plant approved (check out the history of Notwell's CoS), but: if one was to propose a fly-ash production facility that burned coal as cleanly as possible for the production of fly ash and used the resulting potential power production for co-gen, and sold the unexpected surplus on the open market...


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## a_majoor (29 May 2015)

OPEC has shot itself in the foot, but can't seem to get themselves organized to fight the threat of American shale oil. I suspect that on factor the writers are overlooking is the Saudis are fighting several different battles using the oil weapon. Radical Islamists like ISIS don't get the benefit of being able to capture supplies of crude oil in Syria or northern Iraq (keeping them as a managable threat, but still available for the second goal). Arch enemies like Iran also have their actions constrained, since they must fight groups like ISIS to maintain their hold on Syria and Lebanon, continue their nuclear program and maintain a relatively large welfare state to keep the population pacified with much less money coming in. Supporters of Syria and Iran, like Russia, are also getting it in the neck, which supports Saudi Arabia's own long term goal to become the regional Hegemon of the Middle East.

For the Saudis, they belive they can assume the risk, since they have by far the largest amount of money in the bank (at @ $700 billion dollars, they could theoretically maintain their own welfare state for seven years even with no money at all coming in...). During this time, they can safely assume the Americans will become tired or impatient and leave the Middle East (or change their policy in ways which does not favour Iran), and their enemies will run out of resources first:

http://www.the-american-interest.com/2015/05/28/opecs-own-outlook-getting-grimmer/



> *OPEC’s Own Outlook Getting Grimmer*
> 
> Every five years OPEC releases a long-term outlook, and a lot has changed since the last report in 2010. American shale has come on to the scene in a big way, contributing to a global oversupply that, coupled with weak demand, has helped depress prices more than 40 percent in barely a year. OPEC hasn’t acted to constrict production and set a floor to this price slide, consigning its petrostate members to market conditions that push regimes into the red. As Reuters reports, OPEC’s next long-term report suggests prices won’t be rebounding anytime soon:
> 
> ...


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## a_majoor (22 Jul 2015)

American shale oil producers are becoming even more savvy and creative in the newly competative environment:

http://nextbigfuture.com/2015/07/us-shale-oil-finances-are-shaky-but.html



> *US Shale oil finances are shaky but doing better than deepwater oil and oilsands*
> 
> Six months after the oil-price slump ($100 to $43 and today about $57) only five firms out of the hundreds in the US shale-drilling business have gone bankrupt.
> 
> ...


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## CougarKing (30 Jul 2015)

Ha! No more Ferraris or hiring of Malaysian Chinese prostitutes in trips to Kuala Lumpur for these sickos!  ;D

The hotels in Kuala Lumpur's Pentaling Jaya area will sure see a drop in the number of bookings for their bridal/executive suites. 

CNBC



> *Tough times strike Saudi Arabia's millionaires*
> By Katy Barnato | CNBC – Mon, 27 Jul, 2015 10:35 AM EDT
> 
> Turmoil in the Middle East, an unimpressive international stock market debut and tumbling oil prices will hit the wealth of Saudi Arabia's richest in years to come, according to a new report from WealthInsight.
> ...




--------------------------------------------------


Plus bad news for US oil producers:

Foreign Policy



> *Oil Glut Sends Crude Prices Tumbling and Hammers U.S. Producers*
> Supply is outstripping demand by more than 2 million barrels per day — and that's before Iran starts selling more crude in the wake of the landmark nuclear deal with Washington.
> 
> (...SNIPPED)


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## CougarKing (7 Aug 2015)

2 articles of interest:

CNBC



> *In the oil market, $30 is the new $50*
> By Patti Domm | CNBC – Tue, 4 Aug, 2015 4:00 PM EDT
> 
> Even as oil bounces back, analysts say market fundamentals are very bearish, and it would not be surprising to see crude take a temporary dive into the $30s per barrel in the next several months.
> ...



CNBC



> *Iran nuclear deal: This is what it means for oil*
> Arjun Kharpal	| @ArjunKharpal
> Tuesday, 14 Jul 2015 | 12:48 PM ET
> CNBC.com
> ...


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## a_majoor (16 Aug 2015)

The "oil war" strategy is very complex; the Saudi's have the short and medium term goals of limiting Iranian revenues to cripple Iranian hegemonic ambitions, keep ISIS on a short leash, cripple Iranian allies who are in a position to strengthen Iran (or weaken the Saudis), as well as the long term goal of keeping American allies and trade partners dependent on imported oil through supply management and price manipulation. (America itself actually imports little oil from the Middle East, far more oil is/was imported from Mexico, Venezuela and Canada). This article suggests that while the Saudi strategy will work well in the Middle East and against Russia, their longer term goal is not achievable, and the Saudi's may end up consuming their $700 billion dragon's hoard to slay the Iranian threat without being able to quickly replenish their money supply through oil sales to US allies and trading partners (with negative long term consequences to their internal welfare state system as well):

http://nextbigfuture.com/2015/08/half-of-north-dakota-wells-return-over.html



> *Half of North Dakota Wells return over 10% even at $30 per barrel well below $70 breakeven estimate before oil price slump*
> 
> Some parts of North Dakota’s Bakken shale play are profitable at less than $30 a barrel as companies tap bigger wells and benefit from lower drilling costs, according to a Bloomberg Intelligence analysis. That’s less than half the level of some estimates when the oil rout began last year.
> 
> ...


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## suffolkowner (16 Aug 2015)

Thucydides have you seen the actual production numbers? Last I looked I couldn't really see where the Saudis were actually overproducing it looked to me like they just weren't curtailing production


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## cupper (17 Aug 2015)

This is a good resource.

http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/


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## suffolkowner (17 Aug 2015)

Thanks cupper

The numbers pretty much look the same to me as the last time I saw them


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## Edward Campbell (21 Aug 2015)

Here (thanks to Ian Bremmer of the _Eurasia Group_) is an interesting graphic (with source information at the bottom):


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## Oldgateboatdriver (21 Aug 2015)

So, that proves it beyond any doubt: The US went into Iraq for the oil. 

/SARC OFF


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## cupper (21 Aug 2015)

Oldgateboatdriver said:
			
		

> So, that proves it beyond any doubt: The US went into Iraq for the oil.
> 
> /SARC OFF



I thought it was the WMDs. Boy was I confused.  ;D

So, since Iraqi oil was supposed to pay for that little adventure, at 39m bbl averaged over 5 months, at $40 / bbl, it looks like it's gonna take a long time to pay that off. (525 years if you want to do the math)


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## CougarKing (29 Jan 2016)

$27 a barrel...

Reuters



> *OPEC-led attempt for oil-cut deal under way, prospects slim*
> By By Alex Lawler and Rania El Gamal | Reuters – Wed, 27 Jan, 2016 8:42 AM EST
> 
> By Alex Lawler and Rania El Gamal
> ...



CNBC video



> *Oil slides on Iranian price cut*
> Tuesday, 19 Jan 2016 | 9:30 AM ET
> 
> CNBC's Jackie DeAngelis reports on falling oil prices after Iran says it would counter price cuts made by Saudi Arabia.
> ...


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## a_majoor (29 Jan 2016)

If even half of these predictions pan out, the United States now holds the high cards in this game While this could be put in the Scary Strategic Problem: No oil thread, or the $60 barrel by year end thread, it's biggest impact will be to give the US a potent counter to attempts by OPEC, Iran or Russia to manipulate the price of oil. Given US oil companies respond to market signals, they can also turn the taps on and off far more quickly than their competition:

http://nextbigfuture.com/2016/01/technological-progress-in-big-data.html



> *Technological progress in big data analytics could create Shale 2.0 and bring US oil costs to $5-20 per barrel*
> 
> The Oil-price collapse was caused by the astonishing, unexpected growth in U.S. shale output, responsible for three-fourths of new global oil supply since 2008. And as lower prices roil operators and investors, the shale skeptics’ case may seem vindicated. But their history is false: the shale revolution, “Shale 1.0,” was sparked not by high prices—it began when prices were at today’s low levels—but by the invention of new technologies. Now, the skeptics’ forecasts are likely to be as flawed as their history.
> 
> ...


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## CougarKing (16 Feb 2016)

Let's wait and see what Iran will do...

Reuters



> *Saudis and Russia agree oil output freeze, Iran still an obstacle*
> [Reuters]
> By Rania El Gamal and Tom Finn
> February 16, 2016
> ...


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## a_majoor (16 Feb 2016)

All kinds of motivations at play here, and not all of them are in alignment.

Saudi Arabia wants to use low oil prices to keep Iran from getting the financial resources to become regional hegemon, and also to hurt Iranian allies and proxies who need petrodollars to assist Iran (which turn out to be Russia and Syria).

However, Saudi Arabia also spends $100 billion/year running its elaborate welfare system, and their sovereign wealth fund will run out in five to seven years, depending on what assumptions you make. Paying groups like ISIS through the back door in order to have a proxy army to strike Iranian interests isn't cheap either.

Russia's economy requires oil at $100/barrel to keep paying for both its internal needs and foreign military adventures. Even pushing the price of oil over $50 will stem the bleeding. (Although there is no mention of this anywhere, I wonder if there might be some sort of quid pro pro in the background; i.e. Russia backs off supporting Syria and Iran in return for Saudi Arabia supporting oil prices).

Iran, of course, is desperate for new revenues in order to keep its population pacified while also paying for their own expensive quest for regional hegemony. Since they are trying to do it the old fashioned way with developing nuclear weapons, conventional military and political power, they must be burning through cash at an incredible rate. Western air strikes against ISIS actually help the Iranians preserve resources, reducing the number of airstrikes the Iranians have to undertake against ISIS on their own.

While low oil prices also hurt American and Canadian oil producers, this is really collateral damage (and acceptable damage at that) so far as the Saudis are concerned.

The ideal for the Saudis would be to somehow finesse oil prices to stay around $50/bbl to ease their own cash burn while not allowing their enemies to benefit too much.


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## daftandbarmy (16 Feb 2016)

Thucydides said:
			
		

> All kinds of motivations at play here, and not all of them are in alignment.
> 
> Saudi Arabia wants to use low oil prices to keep Iran from getting the financial resources to become regional hegemon, and also to hurt Iranian allies and proxies who need petrodollars to assist Iran (which turn out to be Russia and Syria).
> 
> ...



By curious accident of history and geography, the world's major energy resources are located pretty much in Shiite regions. They're a minority in the Middle East, but they happen to be where the oil is, right around the northern part of the Gulf.

Noam Chomsky

Read more at http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/keywords/middle_east.html#GcpA6ZDAPxytSos4.99


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## CougarKing (8 Apr 2016)

The Saudis slowly realizing their agenda of putting US frackers out of business?

Forbes



> Apr 3, 2016 @ 11:02 AM 32,822 views
> *Saudi Arabia's Last Weapon In The Oil War*
> 
> Panos Mourdoukoutas ,
> ...


----------



## Colin Parkinson (8 Apr 2016)

But for how long, the Pandora's box has been opened and Saudi can only contain it by hurting itself.


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## Flavus101 (8 Apr 2016)

They cannot sustain low oil prices forever. Once their output drops and prices go up space is created in the market again for these small companies to come back in and fill it. This is a short term bandaid solution.


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## Good2Golf (8 Apr 2016)

I thought the prevailing wisdom is that Saudi Arabia as a State will run short of its national reserves before the economic impact to small-cap frackers in the US becomes more than a 'nuisance' to the Big Dogs?  ???


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## Kirkhill (9 Apr 2016)

S.M.A. said:
			
		

> The Saudis slowly realizing their agenda of putting US frackers out of business?
> 
> Forbes



On the other hand I am aware of people buying up wells at pennies on the dollar.  Some are already making money on their investment.


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## a_majoor (9 Apr 2016)

There is a fair bit of analysis in the "$60/barrel by year end" thread which suggests that many American frackers can continue to operate profitably at $30-40/bbl. And "Fracklogging" means that there is plenty of capacity in pre drilled wells simply waiting for price signals to reach the proper point to put the wells into production (or restart them).

Allowing the price of oil to rise might provide a bit of short term relief to the Kingdom, but it also undermines their local strategy to starve arch rival Iran of oil revenues as well as put a hit on Iranian allies (Syria, Russia). If they stay the course for five years they exhaust their cash reserves, but will probably be patting the Iranians on the face with a shovel, and looking over the economic wreckage of Russia and Syria. The issue here is how committed they are to their own long term strategy, and do they have the means of handling second and third order effects of their strategy within the Kingdom itself?.

The Saudis can try to manipulate the market, but the Invisible Hand will wrestle them to the ground.


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## Good2Golf (9 Apr 2016)

I bet they'll blink...


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## TCBF (14 Apr 2016)

Good2Golf said:
			
		

> I bet they'll blink...



- They will have to. Some of the new-tech plants in Alberta can bring in oil sands bitumen at less than $15/bbl. They are the future. The Saudis will not be competitive.


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## Kirkhill (14 Apr 2016)

TCBF said:
			
		

> - They will have to. Some of the new-tech plants in Alberta can bring in oil sands bitumen at less than $15/bbl. They are the future. The Saudis will not be competitive.



And the really neat part is that the oilsands companies don't need to "explore" for the oil.  They know where it is.


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## CougarKing (18 Apr 2016)

More Saudi threats as Doha approaches, while the Iranians go their own way:

Market Watch



> *Saudi prince says country could unleash a million barrels of oil a day*
> 
> Published: Apr 18, 2016 2:44 a.m. ET
> 
> ...



International Business Times



> *Oil Prices: Iran Pulls Out Of Doha Summit, Set To Reach Production Limit*
> By Marcy Kreiter @marcykreiter On 04/16/16 AT 10:23 AM
> 
> UPDATED: 11:50 a.m. EDT — Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Saturday cast doubt on the prospects for Sunday’s oil summit in Doha, Qatar, saying Riyadh could boost output immediately and double it long-term, Bloomberg reported.
> ...



----------------------------------------------

Plus more effects of the world oil glut on global maritime traffic:

Business Insider UK



> *There's a huge traffic jam of oil tankers off Iraq's coast*
> Charles Kennedy, OilPrice.com
> Apr. 10, 2016, 2:04 PM 5,263
> 
> ...



Reuters/Yahoo Finance



> *Band plays on, as global oil glut leaves supertankers in a huge jam*
> By Keith Wallis and Henning Gloystein
> April 12, 2016
> 
> ...


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## Kirkhill (20 Apr 2016)

A very interesting site that portrays key economic indices as actual roller coaster rides:  

http://www.chartcoaster.com/


This is the one for oil from 1946 to 2015.

There are others for gold, interest rates and gasoline from circa WW1 to the present.

The thing that intrigues me is how much long term stability there is when you look at prices and rates in terms of 2014 dollars (in other words discounted for inflation) vice the short term volatility.


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## jollyjacktar (20 Apr 2016)

The Saudi's are looking to borrow $10B.  http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3549262/Saudi-Arabia-close-securing-10-billion-bank-loan-sources.html

I'd love to see them go broke like Venezuela.


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## CougarKing (24 Apr 2016)

Putin's move:

Reuters



> *In riposte to Riyadh, Russia says ready to ramp up oil output*
> 
> By Olesya Astakhova, Denis Pinchuk and Dmitry Zhdannikov | Reuters – Wed, 20 Apr, 2016 6:12 PM EDT
> 
> ...


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## Good2Golf (24 Apr 2016)

House of Saud v. Vlad...hmmmm

op:


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## Kirkhill (24 Apr 2016)

If the Saudis run true to form they are going to need Mercs.....


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## a_majoor (24 Apr 2016)

Russia and Iran ramping up oi production might give them a short term boost in terms of cash-flow, but fails to solve (and indeed exacerbates) the longer term issue of the collapse of their petrodollar dependency. In any realistic scenario, Russia's grandly announced plans for military modernization runs into a shortfall of money, meaning that they will have to start making complex tradeoffs in their domestic economy, foreign policy and military strategy. The "frozen conflicts" in Ukraine and around the edge of the Near Beyond will come back to bite them pretty hard if they still need to keep funding their puppet rebel armies and support them with Russian firepower and advisors.

Iran is also spending resources wildly in order to prop up Syria and maintain their "Shite Arc" from Iran to Lebanon, and competing with two other would be Hegemons in the region (Turkey and Saudi Arabia) is bound to be pretty cash flow intensive as well. ISIS propaganda already makes the point that the long term goal is to fight Apostates as well as "Infidels and Crusaders", so the Saudis and Turks have their weapon in place to disrupt the Iranian plans and goals.


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## CougarKing (20 May 2016)

A bit premature to declare this?

Business Insider



> *OPEC is dead*
> 
> Irina Slav, OilPrice.com
> 
> ...



Philippine Star



> *Saudi Arabia ousts longtime oil minister*
> (Associated Press) | Updated May 8, 2016 - 2:16am
> 
> DUBAI — Saudi Arabia on yesterday announced the ouster of its longtime oil minister as part of a larger ongoing government shakeup.
> ...


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## larry Strong (20 May 2016)

You have to wonder, if they are contemplating using IOU's.......

http://business.financialpost.com/news/energy/saudi-arabia-considers-paying-contractors-with-ious-amid-projected-budget-deficit-brought-on-by-oil-slump?__lsa=26e5-72cf



Cheers
Larry


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## CougarKing (1 Aug 2016)

From last June but still relevant:

Oil-Price.net



> *Saudis lose US clout over oil price war *
> 
> By STEVE AUSTIN for OIL-PRICE.NET, 2016/06/20
> 
> ...






> < Edited >
> 
> Now, for the details.
> The day OPEC lost grip on oil prices
> ...


----------



## cupper (8 Sep 2016)

Signs are starting to show that the Saudi economy is coming to a screeching halt.

*Southeast Asian Workers Go Unpaid in Saudi Arabia**
Thousands of South Asian construction workers are being laid off by local contractors*

http://www.enr.com/articles/40155-southeast-asian-workers-go-unpaid-in-saudi-arabia



> Thousands of South Asian construction workers, as well as other employees, are being laid off by local contractors in Saudi Arabia, without pay issues resolved, as the country's oil-based economy reels under falling prices and halted or deferred projects, leaving the workers without documents to return home or even food to eat.
> 
> While the Saudi government and those of affected expatriates are moving to expedite relief and repatriation efforts, and other contractors are offering to hire stranded workers, pay disputes remain central.
> 
> ...


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## Good2Golf (8 Sep 2016)

Maybe the Saudis went live on their "Buy $6B of Canadian armoured vehicles, get a free government pay system (Phoenix) as a bonus?"


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## CougarKing (17 Sep 2016)

On another forum, an oil worker remarked how he was having trouble finding work and there wouldn't be increased demand for it for awhile.

AFP



> *Global oil glut set to last at least until mid-2017: IEA*
> By: Agence France-Presse
> September 13, 2016 5:11 PM
> 
> ...


----------



## CougarKing (29 Sep 2016)

Aside from the fact that the US Congress has chosen to override Obama's veto of the 9/11 which allows victims' families to sue the Saudis, Riyadh's huge budget deficit is another huge issue altogether:

Moneyweb/Bloomberg



> *In oil price battle with Saudi Arabia, it’s advantage Iran*
> 
> Moneyweb
> Javier Blas, Bloomberg
> ...



*In U-Turn, Saudis Choose Higher Prices Over Free Oil Markets*

Bloomberg



> September 28, 2016
> 
> The decision at this week’s meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in Algiers to cut production was necessitated by Saudi Arabia’s tattered finances.* The kingdom has the highest budget deficit among the world’s 20 biggest economies, it’s enduring a delay in its first international bond issue and now faces fresh legal uncertainty as the U.S. Congress voted Wednesday to allow Americans to sue the country for its involvement in 9/11. ...*
> 
> The consequences could be vast. Giants such as Exxon Mobil Corp. may soon be flush enough to revive abandoned projects. Finances of cash-strapped OPEC countries like Venezuela will get a boost. Russia and other independent oil-rich countries will have to decide whether to follow Saudi Arabia’s lead. U.S. shale producers, which OPEC hoped it could push into bankruptcy, will use higher prices to drill new wells, and American consumers, who’ve enjoyed the lowest gasoline prices in more than a decade, will pay more at the pump.


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## Good2Golf (29 Sep 2016)

*blink*


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## a_majoor (15 Mar 2017)

Destabilizing the existing market in 2014 to attack Iran, Russia and US shale oil was never a good idea. Now look how well various predictions played out:

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/13/russian-oil-major-says-us-shale-growth-imperils-opec-deal.html



> *Russian oil major says US shale growth imperils OPEC deal*
> Monday, 13 Mar 2017 | 11:40 AM ET
> Reuters
> 
> ...


----------



## Good2Golf (16 Mar 2017)

Judging from the KSA's strategic foreign reserves chart, I'd say it wasn't such a good idea, either...

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/saudi-arabia/foreign-exchange-reserves


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## Colin Parkinson (17 Mar 2017)

That's a wee problem for them, when you entire governing structure is built around buying people off. They won't stay bought for long once the money dries up.


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## a_majoor (18 Mar 2017)

Frackers now seem to control the market:

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Has-OPEC-Underestimated-US-Shale-Once-Again.html



> *Has OPEC Underestimated U.S. Shale Once Again?*
> By Tsvetana Paraskova - Mar 15, 2017, 3:13 PM CDT
> 
> The U.S. shale cowboys are back on their horses and leading a strong recovery in the oil patch that is not expected to falter even as WTI prices dropped last week below $50 per barrel for the first time in more than two months.
> ...


----------



## Old Sweat (18 Mar 2017)

A personal observation - we just drove across the Permian Basin in West Texas on I20 Friday and it is busy, busy, busy.


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