# Scenario Syria Attacks Golan



## tomahawk6 (9 Oct 2006)

A debka story has me curious. A Syrian attack on the Golan would help Iran how ? It sure would be a disaster for Syria. Unless Iran starts lobbing missiles to help Israel, looks more like Iran gets to stand on the sidelines while someone else pays the piper.

http://www.debka.com/

DEBKAfile’s sources: Tehran and Damascus are gearing up for a pre-emptive Syrian attack on Israel to ward off a US strike on Iran’s nuclear sites

October 7, 2006, 9:52 AM (GMT+02:00)

Our military and Washington sources read as preparatory justification the Syrian ruler Bashar Asad’s statement Saturday, Oct. 7, that he expects an Israeli attack. 

He was speaking in an interview to Kuwaiti paper al-Anba. 

Asad’s Iranian-backed war plan would serve the purpose of forcing the Americans to divide their military assets between a strike against Iran and the defense of their allies in the Persia Gulf, Israel and US forces in Iraq. Both are seriously looking at a Syrian attack on the Golan which would escalate into a full-blown Syrian-Israeli war and a second Hizballah assault from Lebanon. 

Asad’s remark that during the Lebanon hostilities, he was under pressure from the Syrian population to go to war against Israel and liberate the Golan is the most direct threat of belligerency of all his four Golan statements in the last month. He is implying that he stood up to the pressure once but may not do so again. And for the benefit of the Americans, the Europeans, the Saudis and the Egyptians - all of whom are pretty fed up with him – Asad is posing as the picture of self-restraint; anyone else in his place, he implies, would have taken advantage of the Lebanon war and made a grab for the Golan. Therefore, he is saying, he deserves to be treated with the respect due to a strategic asset by Western and moderate Arab powers instead of being targeted for an ouster. 

The Syrian ruler would not threaten war without guarantees from Iran. According to DEBKAfile’s sources, Asad and Iran’s supreme ruler Ayatollah Ali Khamenei are prompted by the following motives: 

1. Tehran is not prepared to wait passively for the Americans to build up their assault force in the Gulf and strike its nuclear facilities. A pre-emptive attack would suit them better. 

2. Tehran and Damascus have not missed the debilitating crisis in which Israel’s political and military leadership are sunk since the Lebanon war. They do not propose to wait until the IDF pulls itself together enough to handle fresh aggression. 

3. Both accept Israel’s deputy prime minister Shimon Peres’ assessment that Israel’s cities are not prepared for missile attack. Iran and Syria take it for granted that Israeli leaders understand they cannot afford to launch missiles against either one of them for fear of reprisal in kind. 

4. Syria believes that if Hizballah could stand up to the Israeli army in Lebanon, its commandoes can capture sections of the Golan and walk off with an easy victory. 

5. Tehran figures that the Bush administration is coming to the end of its patience in Iraq and preparing for a major review of its position there. The influential U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman, John Warner, said Friday that Iraq's government had 60 to 90 days to control the violence that threatens civil war or the United States would have to reconsider its options. This gives the Maliki government in Baghdad up to December or January to de-escalate if not halt the sectarian war engulfing the country. 

Iran, Syria and Hizballah would not be averse to disrupting the American Iraq timeline by attacking Israel and putting the Bush administration on the spot, forced to address three warfronts simultaneously.


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## dglad (9 Oct 2006)

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> A debka story has me curious. A Syrian attack on the Golan would help Iran how ? It sure would be a disaster for Syria. Unless Iran starts lobbing missiles to help Israel, looks more like Iran gets to stand on the sidelines while someone else pays the piper.



Well, there's that.  But the article does suggest what advantage it brings...an attack on the Golan, if successful, would put Israel into a deep, deep security hole; if the heights fall, there's not much to prevent an invasion from pushing on southwards (in Israeli minds).  Therefore, the Israeli response could include a nuclear option.  The US would be forced to divert massive resources to assist Israel to maintain the country's security, which would completely disrupt their efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as make any pre-emptive attack on Iran problematic i.e. the US is already battling Islamic forces in Iraq and Afghanistan, is pouring military aid into Israel and then, in the midst of this, launches an attack on ANOTHER Islamic country?

Certainly, a cool appraisal of the situation may suggest that it's a risky course with lots of opportunities to back-fire, but one can't separate out the emotive part of the equation.  Syria has been smouldering over their loss of the Golan for almost 40 years, and that's only exacerbated by their humiliating failure to recapture the Heights in 1973.

Finally, don't forget that Syria is a secular Islamic state, while Iran is a theocracy.  If Syria does repeat the failure of 1973 and Assad's grip on Syria weakens or fails altogether, it could pave the way for the rise of another theocratic, fundamentalist Islamic state in the region, fanned on by the ongoing US "crusade" against Islam.

Really, what does Iran have to lose in all this?


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## Colin Parkinson (10 Oct 2006)

I suspect that the IDF will hold it's own against the Syrian army, the IDF would be in the defensive with good air support, the Syrians would be far less motivated than the Hezbollah and I suspect that much of the IDF is doing some serious navel gazing right now, so if the Syrians attacked by next year the IDF will already be in much better shape than now. Also Syria has seen what the IDF can do to infrastructure, and Syria doe not have the cash to replace much of it's own crumbling infrastructure, so I expect a lot of posturing and sabre rattling, but little action.


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## Bigmac (22 Feb 2007)

> Syrian troops move closer to Israel border
> 
> 
> Israeli Defence Minister says there’s no indication of imminent Syrian attack in coming months.
> ...


http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=19693

     The Israeli Defense Minister says he is not worried about Syrian troops massing at the border?? Perhaps he already has a plan in place to take care of the issue. Israel is certainly not known for being complacent when it comes to any potential threats. Never underestimate the Israeli Defense Force. 
     Iranian money is behind the Syrian military buildup. If Syria even throws a rock across the border they will get hammered followed closely by a friendly neighbourhood IDF visit to Iran.


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## a_majoor (22 Feb 2007)

One thing which has not been noted is Israel's heavy use of reservists. They can be called quickly, but this causes disruption to the economy.

I suspect Syria might try a little calling "Wolf" to try and disrupt the Israeli economy (such as we see here), with the possibility in mind that they may find an opening to take advantage of. The IDF on the other hand, needs to play a cool waiting game, and not commit until the proper moment (whatever that may be).


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## Bigmac (22 Feb 2007)

> Israel stages Golan war games
> 21/02/2007 16:59  - (SA)
> Jerusalem - Israel was on Wednesday conducting its most important war games in five years on the Golan Heights, the strategic plateau seized from Syria 40 years ago, defence minister Amir Peretz said.
> 
> ...


http://www.news24.com/News24/World/News/0,,2-10-1462_2072889,00.html

     It appears we are witnessing a strategic game of chess. The pieces have been placed on the board and each player is contemplating their first moves.


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## Bigmac (22 Feb 2007)

> New Syrian Terror Group Threatens Israel
> 
> 
> Marking its official public debut, a purported new Syrian terror group last week claimed it is holding a missing Israeli soldier and would free the captive in exchange for nine Syrians held in Israeli jails.
> ...


http://www.jewishpress.com/page.do/20769/Quick_Takes:_%3Ci%3ENews_From_Israel_You_May_Have_Missed%3C%2Fi%3E.html

      Will this pawn move first?


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## Bigmac (27 Feb 2007)

Another move on the chess board by Russia. I think they want an invite to the big meeting in March between US,Iran and Syria?



> Russia Moves in Support of Syria, Iran, Hamas-Led PA
> 10 Adar 5767, 28 February 07 02:49by Nissan Ratzlav-Katz(IsraelNN.com) Russia's announcement Tuesday that it would work to promote international support for the Hamas-led Palestinian Authority, its intention to supply missiles to Syria and its opposition to sanctions against Iran present a worrying trend for Israel.
> 
> 
> ...


http://www.israelnationalnews.com/SendMail.aspx?print=print&type=0&item=121699


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