# Hurricane Harvey



## Old Sweat (27 Aug 2017)

By now, most, maybe all, of us have seen the shots from East Texas. Rather than hand wring, perhaps we could discuss the implications for North America of an area larger than Eastern Ontario and the population of the GTA being turned into a basket case with a recovery measured in years, not months. The area also is home to a large part of the gasoline refining capacity of the US and Canada.

I did think maybe we should pool our savings and corner the drywall market, but being serious for a moment, I suggest we discuss the economic and social repercussions as well as the lessons we could glean in case of a massive earthquake in BC.

Mods, if you would like to see this in another area, fill your boots, as if you needed my permission.


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## mariomike (27 Aug 2017)

Old Sweat said:
			
		

> I suggest we discuss the economic and social repercussions as well as the lessons we could glean in case of a massive earthquake in BC.



See also,

The Really Big One  
https://army.ca/forums/threads/119880.0
3 pages.
OP: "So, how are we doing with respect to earthquake preparedness CF-wise? 
An earthquake will destroy a sizable portion of the coastal Northwest."

Canada's Earthquakes: 'The Good, the Bad and the Ugly'  
http://army.ca/forums/threads/108615.0

The EARTHQUAKE ZONE  
http://army.ca/forums/threads/92971.0/nowap.html

Six Things We Learned about Disaster Process Improvement  
https://army.ca/forums/threads/123147.0

2011 Japanese Earthquake/Tsunami  
https://army.ca/forums/threads/99824.0
4 pages.
Also discusses the potential impact of an earthquake on BC.

CF Domestic Disaster Relief Ops (merged)
https://army.ca/forums/threads/73744.50
5 pages.


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## tomahawk6 (28 Aug 2017)

Here is a humorous video of texas law enforcement helping to move cattle to higher ground.

https://twitter.com/Harri8t

Not so humorous image of Houston.The ground in that part of Texas is clay.


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## NavyShooter (28 Aug 2017)

My brother lives north of Dallas, and I gather he's OK, not impacted much. 

The former 'storm of the century' rating seems to be hitting harder and harder every time, with a much greater impact.

Is this a result of changes in how our society is organized?  Urbanization is a key factor (more people in a smaller area, means greater dependence on the infrastructure) and a second is the centralization or monopolization of manufacture.  

Dispersed industry and populations mean that a storm like this will have much less critical impact.  When we have one large refinery instead of four smaller ones, yes, there is efficiency gained, but the impact of production interruption is...significant.

Deep thoughts.

NS


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## observor 69 (28 Aug 2017)

A few years ago I came back from League City, Tx, 25 miles south of Houston. We lived on the third floor of an apartment building raised on stilts, as are many buildings in the area. The building, located on the flood plain, overlooked Clear Lake which drained into Galveston Bay.
During the worst storm we experienced, the lake flooded half way up the wheels of my car and closed the one road out.
TV is now showing homes in town with water over half way up their houses.
League City is a lovely town and I feel for the terrible damage this hurricane is causing to the residents and the community.


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## The Bread Guy (28 Aug 2017)

Old Sweat said:
			
		

> ... I did think maybe we should pool our savings and corner the drywall market ...


Along those lines, in spite of the softwood lumber fracas, Resolute Forest Products is being the bigger man, so to speak ...


> Texans forced from their flooded homes by unprecedented water levels may get help rebuilding from a Canadian forestry company.
> 
> Seth Kursman, a vice president with Resolute Forest Products, has committed to sending a rail car full of lumber to Houston once the storm-battered city begins to recover from the devastation wrought by hurricane Harvey.
> 
> ...


Well done Resolute


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## jmt18325 (28 Aug 2017)

Does anyone know if we've (Canada) been asked for help at this point?


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## tomahawk6 (28 Aug 2017)

They wont know until after the storm is over. I do know that there is a need for small boats to help rescue those stranded. FEMA has activated 2 small boat rescue units [civilian] and more are going to come. The only way into many of these areas is by small boat or by air.


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## Old Sweat (29 Aug 2017)

As an indication of things to come, a homeowner in the Ottawa area just got a building permit to rebuild his home that was devastated in the spring floods we experienced. Imagine the scale of the administrative burden in South Texas, and imagine all the contaminated rubble from the flooded buildings.


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## tomahawk6 (29 Aug 2017)

The Governor activated the entire Texas Army National Guard of 12000 to assist with rescue and cleanup.


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## a_majoor (29 Aug 2017)

An interesting story of how one company has prepared for the disaster. This sort of thinking is great if you have the resource base to do so. And the so called Cajun Navy is now out in force to assist in rescuing people, another bottom up response:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/waffle-houses-hurricane-response-team-prepares-disaster-184844452.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=tw



> *How Waffle House's hurricane response team prepares for disaster*
> 
> One of the ways the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) measures hurricane damage is by the Waffle House Index. Waffle House, a popular 24-hour fast food chain in the Southeast, has a unique ability to operate solely on gas if necessary, so a closed Waffle House is often tantamount to disaster.
> 
> ...


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## Retired AF Guy (29 Aug 2017)

Interesting article over at Politico on how encouraging people to re-build on flood plains likely contributed to the disaster in Houston.



> How Washington Made Harvey Worse
> 
> A federal insurance program made Harvey far more costly—and Congress could have known it was coming.
> 
> ...



 Article Link


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## tomahawk6 (29 Aug 2017)

The National Guard is bringing in troops from other states to assist Texas authorities.

http://www.latimes.com/politics/washington/la-na-essential-washington-updates-pentagon-says-up-to-30-000-national-1504032239-htmlstory.html

Pentagon officials said Tuesday that National Guard assets are at full readiness to assist in the unfolding disaster in Texas wrought by Tropical Storm Harvey.

Maj. Gen. James C. Witham, director of domestic operations for the National Guard, told Pentagon reporters that up to 30,000 guardsmen as well as a U.S. naval amphibious assault ship could be called upon to help out in rescue efforts on the ground.

There are 30 National Guard helicopters flying in Texas in support of relief efforts surrounding the hurricane and subsequent tropical storm, with 24 more requested, he said.

Witham said that could increase to 100 helicopters in the days ahead as the Guard prepares for a sustained, phased response -- a departure from what the Guard has done in the past.


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## mariomike (31 Aug 2017)

People helping people,

Houston mosques turn into shelters to aid Harvey victims 
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/houston-mosques-turn-shelters-aid-harvey-victims-article-1.3456479

Texas' Muslim community has welcomed residents affected by Hurricane Harvey into its mosques as the storm continues to bring rainfall in the southeast.

The Brand Lane Center in Stafford, Tex. is one of those mosques serving as a 24-hour refuge that has been providing people with hot food and clothes.

"When you give, you don't give only to your own family. You give to anybody who needs help," Khan said.

“We have truckloads of supplies coming,” Khan told Mic, adding that 50 doctors from the Muslim community were on call to help Harvey victims.


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## jmt18325 (31 Aug 2017)

Canada has been asked for supplies, and has apparently responded in the affirmative.

https://twitter.com/RalphGoodale/status/903364870686560258


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## mariomike (31 Aug 2017)

jmt18325 said:
			
		

> Does anyone know if we've (Canada) been asked for help at this point?





			
				jmt18325 said:
			
		

> https://twitter.com/RalphGoodale/status/903364870686560258



Two Canada Task Force 1 ( CAN-TF1 Vancouver ) Heavy Urban Search and Rescue ( HUSAR ) members were sent to Hurricane Harvey. 

They were invited by TX-TF1 to embed, observe, and further prepare CAN-TF1 for events of this scale.


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## jmt18325 (31 Aug 2017)

mariomike said:
			
		

> Two Canada Task Force 1 ( CAN-TF1 Vancouver ) Heavy Urban Search and Rescue ( HUSAR ) members were sent to Hurricane Harvey.
> 
> They were invited by TX-TF1 to embed, observe, and further prepare CAN-TF1 for events of this scale.



Here's a story:

http://globalnews.ca/news/3705701/vancouver-fire-rescue-texas-hurricane-harvey/


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## mariomike (31 Aug 2017)

jmt18325 said:
			
		

> Here's a story:
> 
> http://globalnews.ca/news/3705701/vancouver-fire-rescue-texas-hurricane-harvey/



Two members to Hurricane Harvey. 

CAN-TF1 deployed 46 members to Hurricane Katrina. 

Good grief! Now they are talking about Hurricane Irma might be on the way to the Gulf Coast!


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## jmt18325 (31 Aug 2017)

mariomike said:
			
		

> Two members to Hurricane Harvey.
> 
> CAN-TF1 deployed 46 members to Hurricane Katrina.



According to the story, we haven't yet been asked to assist with personnel.  This is an observation mission only.  This actually seems like exactly the kind of thing we have the DART and 5 HUSARS for.  I'm sure we've offered that help at this point.


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## mariomike (31 Aug 2017)

jmt18325 said:
			
		

> This is an observation mission only.



That would be because there is little ( if any? ) Heavy Rescue involved. HUSAR

General Honore ( Joint Task Force Katrina Commander ) called the response to Harvey "amateur hour". 
https://www.google.ca/search?rls=com.microsoft%3Aen-CA%3AIE-Address&rlz=1I7GGHP_en-GBCA592&q=honore+%22amateur+hour%22&oq=honore+%22amateur+hour%22&gs_l=psy-ab.3...959157.968664.0.969085.23.22.1.0.0.0.423.3262.3j13j3j0j1.20.0.foo%2Cersl%3D1%2Cfett%3D1%2Cewh%3D0%2Cnso-enksa%3D0%2Cnso-enfk%3D1%2Cnso-usnt%3D1%2Cnso-qnt-npqp%3D0-1%2Cnso-qnt-npdq%3D0-45%2Cnso-qnt-npt%3D0-09%2Cnso-qnt-ndc%3D300%2Ccspa-dspm-nm-mnp%3D0-045%2Ccspa-dspm-nm-mxp%3D0-1125%2Cnso-unt-npqp%3D0-15%2Cnso-unt-npdq%3D0-25%2Cnso-unt-npt%3D0-06%2Cnso-unt-ndc%3D300%2Ccspa-uipm-nm-mnp%3D0-0075%2Ccspa-uipm-nm-mxp%3D0-0525.3..0...1.1.64.psy-ab..2.11.2169...0j46j0i67k1j0i46k1j0i10k1j0i22i30k1j0i22i10i30k1.R_b2KxY0DTQ


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## jmt18325 (31 Aug 2017)

mariomike said:
			
		

> That would be because there is little ( if any? ) Heavy Rescue involved. HUSAR



Do you think maybe a GSAR team would actually be more helpful?

Edit - I see what you're talking about now.  I thought it was going to be done better than ever before?


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## Jarnhamar (31 Aug 2017)

This is interesting.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waffle_House_Index



> The Waffle House Index is an informal metric used by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to determine the effect of a storm and the likely scale of assistance required for disaster recovery.[1]
> 
> "If you get there and the Waffle House is closed? That's really bad. That's when you go to work.


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## tomahawk6 (31 Aug 2017)

Jarnhamar said:
			
		

> This is interesting.
> 
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waffle_House_Index



The Canadian version would be Timmys.  ;D


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## jollyjacktar (31 Aug 2017)

I am absolutely gobsmacked at some of the numbers.  I was told the initial deluge dumped 9 trillion tons of water onto the affected area.  I can't even get my head around that volume of water inasmuch as how it would appear if in blocks.

That and those nasty ass mats of fire ants.  They need a torching.


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## mariomike (31 Aug 2017)

jollyjacktar said:
			
		

> I am absolutely gorgeous smacked at some of the numbers.  I was told the initial deluge dumped 9 trillion tons of water onto the affected area.  I can't even get my head around that volume of water inasmuch as how it would appear if in blocks.
> 
> That and those nasty ass mats of fire ants.  They need a torching.



I don't know what the final death toll will be, I believe it is 33 now.

The natural disaster I always heard about as a child was Hurricane Hazel in 1954.

It killed up to 1,000 people.

It killed 81 people in Toronto alone, including five firemen. 35 people died on a single street, Raymore Drive.


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## tomahawk6 (1 Sep 2017)

Houston is more or less dry according to the mayor.There may or may not be fuel shortages for awhile with the refineries shut down.

https://www.yahoo.com/gma/houston-begins-assess-hurricane-harveys-trail-devastation-195004541--abc-news-topstories.html


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## Blackadder1916 (1 Sep 2017)

jmt18325 said:
			
		

> According to the story, we haven't yet been asked to assist with personnel.  This is an observation mission only.  *This actually seems like exactly the kind of thing we have the DART* and 5 HUSARS for.  I'm sure we've offered that help at this point.



I can't speak to the capabilities of the HUSARs because I have no experience with that aspect of the techniques of disaster response.  DART, on the other hand, is not what we use to respond to "exactly this kind of thing".  I won't get into the "political optics reasoning" for sending a bare minimum unit in response to a foreign disaster situation, but if the government does provide some form of aid, there will likely be some legitimate humanitarian feeling behind it.

In assessing what DART (as that stand alone organisation by itself) could provide to the Harvey affected area, first let's look at what DART is designed to do.
DART
http://www.forces.gc.ca/en/operations-abroad-recurring/dart.page#details-panel-1412460546024-1



> DART responsibilities
> 
> The primary responsibilities of the DART are:
> •to stabilize the primary effects of the disaster in co-operation with national and regional governments and non-governmental agencies;
> ...



While Harvey has definitely been a kick in the goolies to Texas specifically and the USA generally, by no stretch of the imagination has it rendered local, state or federal governments (or the massive private health system in Houston) incapable of providing minimum services.  It's not a third world country that was having trouble providing these services before the disaster event.

As some background, this is a description of the Canadian Military response to Katrina.  There are a few capabilities that we provided there that may be useful in this situation but none of them are included in the DART.
http://www.journal.forces.gc.ca/vol12/no3/doc/PDFeng/Scanlon-Steele-Hunsberger%20Page5462.pdf


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## a_majoor (1 Sep 2017)

Given that flooding is a pretty common disaster and that we not only see the results with Harvey, but have been dealing with it in places like Quebec and Calgary right here at home, isn't it about time there was a serious push to get amphibious vehicles like the Bronco or whatever else you might find in the catalogue so _we_ have the tools to operate in these conditions?

How many more examples do we really need?


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## jmt18325 (1 Sep 2017)

Blackadder1916 said:
			
		

> I can't speak to the capabilities of the HUSARs because I have no experience with that aspect of the techniques of disaster response.  DART, on the other hand, is not what we use to respond to "exactly this kind of thing".  I won't get into the "political optics reasoning" for sending a bare minimum unit in response to a foreign disaster situation, but if the government does provide some form of aid, there will likely be some legitimate humanitarian feeling behind it.
> 
> In assessing what DART (as that stand alone organisation by itself) could provide to the Harvey affected area, first let's look at what DART is designed to do.
> DART
> ...



Thank's for the info - I was thinking about stuff like basic medical care and safe drinking water.  I guess I didn't think it through.

HUSARs time has pretty much passed at this point.


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## Blackadder1916 (1 Sep 2017)

Thucydides said:
			
		

> Given that flooding is a pretty common disaster and that we not only see the results with Harvey, but have been dealing with it in places like Quebec and Calgary right here at home, isn't it about time there was a serious push to get amphibious vehicles like the Bronco or whatever else you might find in the catalogue so _we_ have the tools to operate in these conditions?
> 
> How many more examples do we really need?



And what would we be doing with the "amphibious vehicles like the Bronco" while waiting for the wet and wild to occur?  There seems to be a tendency to try to always include a "having X capability in case of a disaster or humanitarian response" comment whenever proposing a piece of kit or to have these pieces of equipment sitting around, just in case.  It's very easy to get in that mindset, especially since it may convince the holders of the purse stings to loosen them a little because its not about kit designed to kill people.  However, we should be thinking the other way; request the equipment that is necessary to accomplish a military, war fighting mission.  If it is able to be adapted to a less violent situation, e.g. disaster response, all the better, but if not, so what.

I still remember the suggestion one of the evaluators made to me during the first Op Eval that I was involved in following commissioning.  The exercise scenario was a MAJAID in the far North (back then Edmonton also had a MAJAID responsibility) and the particular problem I was facing (as the HAO, my job was in Base Ops as the medical rep) was having enough bodies to do whatever lifting and toting of casualties/patients/bodies at the forward base (a community up North).  While there was a well developed ops plan that listed where such bodies came from (including CABC and 1CMBG units) the difficulty lay in the available airlift to get them there.  The number of seats assigned to the medical element just didn't provide room for what I thought was necessary (or what was listed as available in the ops plan).  The evaluator (a LCol MO), quietly said in my ear, "Don't worry about it, once you get on the ground, especially if it was a no duff situation, there will be volunteers galore from the locals who will want to help.  They will be even more willing to help if you're able to offer them a little payment, which you can.  As for vehicles to get around, how do you think the locals get around.  There's nothing wrong with beg, borrow or stealing, but we usually rent."


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## Fishbone Jones (1 Sep 2017)

Sounds like things are coming together on that front.

Let's move onto a different aspect of the consequences. Are we prepared to deal with two, three, five or ten years of energy crisis? Can we survive the massive industrial slowdown or stops?

I know nothing about the state of our petroleum industry in Canada.

How fast can we ramp up production again. Have we got the logistics to transfer it?  If yes, can we transfer to a refinery that could handle our product?

Gas here, was $1.23/ litre @ 17:00 today. It was $2.63 USD/ US gal in Michigan. The state is dusting off their rationing and driving ban policies.

It's not going away soon. Have we got the capacity, us and the US, to keep our reserves up and keep North America solvent in petroleum at the levels we have presently? Would declaring it a national emergency get us self sufficient. How about a moderate price, whatever that would be, with say .75 per litre going directly to increasing petroleum infrastructure by the industry, only with non interfering oversight funded and staffed by existing government resources?

Do we risk, at our peril, not using our own cheaper product rather become totally subservient to OPEC, because, you know, they're so nice they won't try recoup all they've lost politically and  financially from us?

Should we not ramp up our coal plants etc to try take some load off petroleum? Yes we're not receiving any coal generated power, according to politicians, but I think the boilers are still staying at heated standby for emergency are they not?

I'll reserve my input until someone that knows the industry, from working within the industry can teach us (me) what we have to work with. I'm also not going to engage in any back and forth, until we at least, determine if we have the capacity for something of this magnitude. While we're dealing with hypotheticals, I'd rather not go down crazy hypotheticals that would lead us nowhere. So no Sheldon Cooper alternate universe string theory please.

Discuss?


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## ModlrMike (1 Sep 2017)

Fuel here in Wpg has risen 0.20/L (88.9-->107.0) in the last four days. I thought that the first 0.10/L rise was due to Harvey, but I can't help but feel that the second is nothing short of profiteering.


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## jmt18325 (1 Sep 2017)

ModlrMike said:
			
		

> Fuel here in Wpg has risen 0.20/L (88.9-->107.0) in the last four days. I thought that the first 0.10/L rise was due to Harvey, but I can't help but feel that the second is nothing short of profiteering.



It's certainly not profiting at the gas station level.  At 88.9, margins were non existent (1-2C a litre).  At the current price, fuel is costing about 1.00 for the stations.


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## Brad Sallows (1 Sep 2017)

>I was told the initial deluge dumped 9 trillion tons of water onto the affected area.  I can't even get my head around that volume of water inasmuch as how it would appear if in blocks.

A cube 20km each edge, if I got the arithmetic right.


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## a_majoor (1 Sep 2017)

Blackadder1916 said:
			
		

> And what would we be doing with the "amphibious vehicles like the Bronco" while waiting for the wet and wild to occur?  There seems to be a tendency to try to always include a "having X capability in case of a disaster or humanitarian response" comment whenever proposing a piece of kit or to have these pieces of equipment sitting around, just in case.  It's very easy to get in that mindset, especially since it may convince the holders of the purse stings to loosen them a little because its not about kit designed to kill people.  However, we should be thinking the other way; request the equipment that is necessary to accomplish a military, war fighting mission.  If it is able to be adapted to a less violent situation, e.g. disaster response, all the better, but if not, so what.



Broncos can fulfill a multitude of military roles, both as fighting vehicles and logistics vehicles (and the other half of the argument is they can move over the 80% of Canadian territory which is not covered in improved roads, as well as in marginal terrain in any area of the world). So equipping the third companies of every light battalion with Broncos (like they were originally designed around being a BV-206 equipped company) minimally fulfills both the war fighting and "operations other than war" requirements.


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## Blackadder1916 (1 Sep 2017)

[





			
				Brad Sallows said:
			
		

> >I was told the initial deluge dumped 9 trillion tons of water onto the affected area.  I can't even get my head around that volume of water inasmuch as how it would appear if in blocks.
> 
> A cube 20km each edge, if I got the arithmetic right.



I think that the original figure may be off a little, from some of the reports I've seen, it was in the neighbourhood of 24.5 trillion "gallons" not tons.  That would put the calculation off by a factor of approximately 239 88 650 divide by, carry the 2. . . uhh, a whole shitload (239.65 US gallons in a short ton of water).  However, still a large block of water.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/08/30/harvey-has-unloaded-24-5-trillion-gallons-of-water-on-texas-and-louisiana/?utm_term=.a33c6b7f19ac


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## Bearpaw (1 Sep 2017)

CNN(yesterday)----> 27 trillion USGal
1 cubic mile = 1.1 trillion USGal
thus 24.5 cubic miles of rain

1 cubic mile = (1.621km)^3 = 4.26 km^3

Thus 104.35 km^3 for rain water = cube of water 4.7km on each side

or 

104.35 billion metric tons water

Bearpaw


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## dapaterson (1 Sep 2017)

Or, to use a more commonly understood term, very wet.


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## PuckChaser (1 Sep 2017)

From IFLScience: http://www.iflscience.com/environment/how-much-water-hurricane-harvey-dumping-houston/

Harvey has stalled over Houston so the rainfall that normally tracks over a large area is drenching a single city. By the time its over, there will be 3.8x the amount of rainfall than that of Katrina.... Absolutely insane.


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## tomahawk6 (2 Sep 2017)

Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth expressed a very kind message to the folks in Texas and Louisiana. 



> “I was deeply saddened to learn of the loss of life and the devastation following the recent terrible floods caused by Hurricane Harvey. Prince Philip and I send our sincere condolences to the victims of this disaster, to those who have lost loved ones, and to those who have seen their homes and property destroyed. My thoughts and prayers are with those affected.”


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## Fishbone Jones (3 Sep 2017)

No bs, real question .

Has she done this previously for US hurricanes?


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## tomahawk6 (3 Sep 2017)

After katrina.

https://www.royal.uk/message-president-usa-following-hurricane-katrina


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## Kat Stevens (3 Sep 2017)

ModlrMike said:
			
		

> Fuel here in Wpg has risen 0.20/L (88.9-->107.0) in the last four days. I thought that the first 0.10/L rise was due to Harvey, but I can't help but feel that the second is nothing short of profiteering.



Amazing how a slowdown in refining can effect the price of already refined petroleum sitting in underground storage tanks for a week before the storm hit.


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## BeyondTheNow (3 Sep 2017)

An interesting article summing up the process of Harvey and the why's. 27 trillion gallons of rain...

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/harvey+finally+fizzles+look+what+made+nasty/14520149/story.html


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## larry Strong (3 Sep 2017)

Kat Stevens said:
			
		

> Amazing how a slowdown in refining can effect the price of already refined petroleum sitting in underground storage tanks for a week before the storm hit.


  


Even worse, the Co-op Refinery Complex in Regina supplies fuel to the Western Canada Co-op's for their gas bars. Their prices jump just like everyone else.....anyone hear of massive flooding in Regina?


Cheers
larry


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## tomahawk6 (3 Sep 2017)

As President Obama used to say "dont let a crisis go to waste"  [lol:


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## SeaKingTacco (3 Sep 2017)

Larry Strong said:
			
		

> Even worse, the Co-op Refinery Complex in Regina supplies fuel to the Western Canada Co-op's for their gas bars. Their prices jump just like everyone else.....anyone hear of massive flooding in Regina?
> 
> 
> Cheers
> larry



The simple answer is that there is no law saying that the only place that Co-op can sell that fuel is Western Canada. If someone from the US picks up the phone and calls them saying that they want to buy a trainload of diesel and gasoline at a price point above what Co-op can get in Canada, guess where the fuel is going?

When that happens: instant shortage and price rise in Canada, too.

Either Freakonomics or SuperFreakonomics (I forget which book) did a piece on this a few years ago. Basically, nothing solves a shortage of something like high prices. It motivates new supply into the market, quickly. And it promotes the instant conservation of the scarce resource.


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## observor 69 (3 Sep 2017)

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> As President Obama used to say "dont let a crisis go to waste"  [lol:



https://www.goodreads.com/.../717228-you-never-want-a-serious-crisis-to-go-to-wast...
Rahm Emanuel — 'You never want a serious crisis to go to waste.'


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## jmt18325 (3 Sep 2017)

Kat Stevens said:
			
		

> Amazing how a slowdown in refining can effect the price of already refined petroleum sitting in underground storage tanks for a week before the storm hit.



It's not really all that strange, actually.  The stuff in the tank is far more important when you don't know how much new stuff is coming.


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## tomahawk6 (3 Sep 2017)

Its hard to separate the two.


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## jmt18325 (3 Sep 2017)

Chief Stoker said:
			
		

> Please inform us all knowledgeable one.



The reality is, the world market, and the North American market in particular is integrated for products like this.  We also live in a world of just in time inventory management.  On top of that, you're dealing with a product that doesn't have a long shelf life.  Any disruption is going to cause a spike.  This is a big disruption, with some uncertainty built in.


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## SeaKingTacco (3 Sep 2017)

jmt18325 said:
			
		

> The reality is, the world market, and the North American market in particular is integrated for products like this.  We also live in a world of just in time inventory management.  On top of that, you're dealing with a product that doesn't have a long shelf life.  Any disruption is going to cause a spike.  This is a big disruption, with some uncertainty built in.



JMT is correct.


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## George Wallace (3 Sep 2017)

SeaKingTacco said:
			
		

> JMT is correct.



At the same time, there are enough Reserves and refineries around North America, that they could easily ramp up production to cover that lost 20% in Texas.  
How much of Canadian oil products actually come from across the border?


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## kratz (3 Sep 2017)

Using yesterday's average rates, the spike in Canadian markets is more than 25% higher than rates in the USA.

CPL $1.27 CAD * 3.78541 = $3.87 CAD per US Gallon * 1.24 currency conversion = $3.11 CPG USD = 25% more in Canada
CPG $2.34 USD / 3.78541 = $0.618153 USD per Litre / 1.24 currency conversion = $0.77 CPL CAD

1 L = 3.78541 US Gallon
$1 CAD = $1.24 USD


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## Blackadder1916 (3 Sep 2017)

kratz said:
			
		

> Using yesterday's average rates, *the spike in Canadian markets is more than 25% higher *than rates in the USA.



With only a cursory glance at your calculation (math makes my head hurt) it seems that your analysis points to a difference in average price at one point in time, not what the percentage of increase was.  I've always gone with the guesstimation that Canadian gas will always be about 30% higher priced than in the USA, so if the difference is now only 25%, then we are coming out ahead.


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## jmt18325 (3 Sep 2017)

SeaKingTacco said:
			
		

> JMT is correct.



It happens...


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## SeaKingTacco (3 Sep 2017)

George Wallace said:
			
		

> At the same time, there are enough Reserves and refineries around North America, that they could easily ramp up production to cover that lost 20% in Texas.
> How much of Canadian oil products actually come from across the border?



There is very little spare refining capacity in North America anymore. No new refineries have been built in years and many have been closed.

That said, apparently European and Middle Eastern refineries are ramping up to meet demand (and make some money).


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## Scott (3 Sep 2017)

Here is a bit dated info on imports vs exports.

http://www.nrcan.gc.ca/energy/oil-sands/18086


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## larry Strong (3 Sep 2017)

This one might be opening at an opportune time......The Sturgeon refinery only will produce only low-sulfur diesel fuel, and not gasoline though......

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-30/canada-to-open-first-refinery-in-decades-in-glutted-fuel-market


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## mariomike (3 Sep 2017)

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> As President Obama used to say "dont let a crisis go to waste"



Former Obama Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel said that. 

I found no source of President Obama himself saying it. 

Winston Churchill supposedly coined it. Machiavelli may have been the originator.

Saw this on Twitter, 

"You have a choice Houston, starve to death...or eat vegan."
(ENTIRE CITY OF HOUSTON TAKES A BIG SWIG OF WHISKY) 
"I'll see you in hell."
https://pics.me.me/matt-oswalt-mattoswaltva-you-have-a-choice-houston-starve-to-27486616.png


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## Jarnhamar (7 Sep 2017)

Found this interesting.

It's now a $20'000 fine if you're caught price gouging in Flordia.

http://www.floridatoday.com/story/news/2017/09/05/price-gouging-hotline-effect-florida-because-irma/632280001/

Even a hotline set up to call and report people.


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## dapaterson (7 Sep 2017)

Guess I need to raise prices to cover the fine...


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## Jarnhamar (7 Sep 2017)

Now if they could only stop the price gouging going on with gas up here.


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## ModlrMike (7 Sep 2017)

This could go in a number of forums, but I'll put it here for now: 







I'd like to believe that there's not this much stupid in the world, but every day someone proves me wrong.


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## kratz (7 Sep 2017)

Sadly,

With the introduction of the internet, it's become far too easy to find "stupid" these days.  :


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## George Wallace (7 Sep 2017)

ModlrMike said:
			
		

> This could go in a number of forums, but I'll put it here for now:
> I'd like to believe that there's not this much stupid in the world, but every day someone proves me wrong.



PMedMoe actually posted her website.  She really is that stupid.






Now this guy gets to see how KARMA works:


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## Loachman (8 Sep 2017)

What was the mark, and in what medium, did Israelites apply to their doors to protect themselves during the night preceding their liberation from Egyptian slavery?[/not a Biblical scholar]

Perhaps something similar would help that last idiot.

Couldn't hurt...


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## Fishbone Jones (8 Sep 2017)

Can we leave the idiots behind and put the thread back on track? This shit is ALL OVER the internet. If you want to hunt stupidity, go there, to a target rich environment.


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