# Who Is In Charge in Damascus ?



## tomahawk6 (15 Jul 2006)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/07/14/AR2006071401481.html

The Baath Party national command issued a communique announcing support for Lebanon and Hizbollah.
Assad wasnt at the meeting. What could be more important than war on the Syrian border ? Is this a way for Assad to share responsibility or maybe he is no longer in charge. Syria see's this as an opportunity to move their army back into Lebanon. Time will tell if the Lebanese government can keep them out.


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## Kirkhill (15 Jul 2006)

After a little bit of time with Microsoft Encarta Virtual Globe and its measure tool I came up with these estimated drive times.  Highway driving all the way.  

Golan to Damascus: 1-2 hrs (87 km)
Beirut to Damascus: 1-2 hrs (93 km)
Nearest Iraqi Border Crossing to Damascus: 3-4 hrs (260 km)
Abu Kamal to Damascus: 5-7 hrs (550 km) - Abu Kamal is the large town (20-100,000) just inside the Syrian border on the Euphrates Valley and on the supply route for al-Zarqawi's friends into places like Ramadi.
Aleppo(Halab) to Damascus: 3-5 hrs (350 km) - North of Aleppo, along the Turkish border, is the region of Syria dominated by a large Kurdish population (2-2.5 Million) with ties to Kurds in Iraq and Turkey and designated as "foreigners", non-Syrians, by Damascus  - Damascus having trouble keeping the lid on up there (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2004/03/18/wkurd18.xml&sSheet=/news )

Modified:  One further point looking at the map - Drive time up the Euphrates valley from Abu Kamal to Aleppo: 4-6 hr (437 km) - That would effectively divide Kurdish Syria from the south and secure the supply route into Iraq.

What will Damascus do?  How about Assad himself?  I don't think he wants to do much but he has "friends" that might be more adventurous.
How about the prospect of Americans, with the support of the Iraqi government (anti-insurgency), Iraqi Sunnis (likewise looking for a bit of quiet), Iraqi Kurds (not looking for a bit of quiet but how about supporting their brothers and giving Iraq an outlet to the Mediterranean via the Euphrates and Aleppo) taking advantage of an opportunity to reduce Iraq to a one front war?

Hamas and Hizbollah with Iran may be looking for a punch-up but I don't think Assad wants to go there.

Despite great claims from Hizbollah, is it reasonable that they could sustain a rocket barrage for long, much less conventional military ops?  How could they be resupplied except via Syria which might result in the excuse for the American incursion?

Meanwhile back in Iraq Moqtada al-Sadr has nailed his colours to the pole and declared solidarity with Hizbollah and brought his supporters out into the street.  

It all looks to me as if Iran/Mookie/Hizbollah/Hamas have found themselves with the prospect of a conventional fight on a weak front with timing not entirely to their advantage.  

Prospects of separating Damascus by direct action or merely by threat from Tehran?

Note: originally posted on the Corvette thread but moved for appropriateness.
Note 2: moved again because I can't make up my mind - but this seemed most appropriate thread


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## 54/102 CEF (15 Jul 2006)

That`s a great post.

Some additional stuff

"The dead hand of the past"

Arab Islam has not escaped its resonance to Greco- Roman civilization. In Antiquity only the educated man could ascend into the elite. But what did it mean to be truly educated? Not fluency in Latin or even Greek, rather a command of the whole body of the civilization, and a sure voice in stainless Attic Greek. Who could afford this course for their life, which even with the best rhetors might take twenty years to achieve? 

58 Like the Greco-Roman world of late Antiquity, the Arab world celebrates the full inhabitation of its civilization. This means true mastery of Arabic, one of the most demanding of tongues. Just to approach the fullness of this world requires study as rigorous as any course in Antiquity. No wonder elite Arabs shy away from science. It is not simply because science is an alien and infidel art. Their social goals require a course in civilization that brooks no time for other knowledge. This helps explain why two-thirds of all Ph.D.s awarded in Arabia are in Islamic studies.59 It also helps explain the continuing lock of a religious elite on those societies' very identity. 
For Arab elites, with cultural achievement comes only a limited calling: to teach, to preach, and to judge. Only those with Islamic authority may be considered true members of the elite. Like Greco-Roman civilization, they preside over a complete—and completed— civilization. Greco-Roman nostalgia for a "Golden Age" and Islamic romancing of its early days both suggest a backward-looking vantage. Also like Greco-Roman civilization, Islam has not overcome its cultural crystallization, occurring shortly after origination (Hourani places it in the latter half of the 7th century 

60). Sunni religious leadership, which includes the leadership of the insurgency, has no path to significant innovation. 
Unquote 

Note the last sentence - "no path to significant innovation."

This suggests brittleness in politics or other structure that may shatter if the proper conditions arrive...

Full text here http://jhuapl.edu/POW/library/Terror_Islamsm.pdf


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## Kirkhill (15 Jul 2006)

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/07/14/AR2006071401481.html
> 
> The Baath Party national command issued a communique announcing support for Lebanon and Hizbollah.
> Assad wasnt at the meeting. What could be more important than war on the Syrian border ? Is this a way for Assad to share responsibility or maybe he is no longer in charge. Syria see's this as an opportunity to move their army back into Lebanon. Time will tell if the Lebanese government can keep them out.



What would it take for Assad to invite a foreign force into Syria to save it and him from "a Baathist party that has changed direction since it has welcomed elements of Saddams rogue regime in Iraq"?  It just isn't the same old Baathist party poor old Assad grew up with.


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## Cdn Blackshirt (15 Jul 2006)

Great assessment in the attachment.  I think it's probably the best I've read....


Matthew.


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