# N. Korea tests nuclear weapon



## Mike Baker (3 Oct 2006)

If this isn't the right spot to post this, Mods move it please. 


> CTV.ca News Staff
> 
> North Korea declared Tuesday that it will be conducting its first-ever nuclear test in response to what it called increasing U.S. hostility.
> 
> ...


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## tomahawk6 (8 Oct 2006)

North Korea's neighbors are jittery. The Chinese have beefed up their forces on the border to deal with rogue NK troops and too round up NK refugees. 

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2089-2393599,00.html


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## warspite (8 Oct 2006)

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> North Korea's neighbors are jittery.


No argument there.
http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2006/10/07/korea.html 
-S. Koreans shooting at tresspassing N. Korean soldiers
-Experts claim that a test could come as early as this Sunday(tomorrow), the anniversary of Kim Jong-il's coming to power(read this on CBC but can't find the article)
-Japan trying to decide wether or not their constitution allows for pre-emptive strikes against N. Korea.

To sum it up...... *It's gonna blow*


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## a_majoor (8 Oct 2006)

Or not.

One of the reasons for the DPRK's increasingly bellicose behavior is to try to attract the attention of the Great Powers. My five year old is a master of this sort of behavior, and members with small children are probably also aware of this as well.

When the United States reacted to the North Korean fireworks display AKA missile tests with indifference (only an assistant or deputy secretary went over, not Dr Rice, for example), it probably drove the Dear Leader into a frenzy. Throughout the 90's, this sort of behavior produced spectacular results in the form of bribes and concessions from the Clinton Administration, so the failure to extract concessions or bribes this time around puts the entire power structure of the DPRK in jeopardy. They are not being taken seriously abroad, and they cannot extract enough concessions from the West or China to maintain their precarious economy much longer I expect. The US could gradually ramp up its forces and posture to contain a collapsing North, without openly provoking a confrontation. There is a danger the DPRK could try to engineer a crisis, but astute management _could_ keep things bottled up until the DPRK implodes.

The greatest danger that the collapse of North Korea would generate would be hordes of refugees streaming both north into China and south into the ROK. Robert Kaplan has an interesting article in this month's Atlantic Monthly, which makes the point that not even the ROK is enthusiastic about reunification at this time, and would probably preffer the shattered remnants of the north to be placed under some sort of four power protectorate for a generation to allow the population to gradually assimilate.

Who knows what the answer is? Certainly not I


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## The Bread Guy (8 Oct 2006)

A few highlights, and a bit o' background...

*North Korea set to test first atomic bomb *  
Associated Press, 7 Oct 06
http://www.kstp.com/article/stories/S19230.html?cat=1

Tensions mounted over North Korea's threat to test its first atomic bomb, with shots ringing out Saturday along the border with South Korea and Japan warning of harsh sanctions if Pyongyang goes nuclear.  With a possible test expected as early as Sunday, the U.N. Security Council issued a stern statement Friday urging the country to abandon its nuclear ambitions and warning of unspecified consequences if the isolated, communist regime doesn't comply . . . . 



*North Korean nuclear test could unleash ‘ash of death’*
Agence France Presse, via Khaleej Time (UAE), 8 Oct 06
http://www.khaleejtimes.ae/DisplayArticleNew.asp?xfile=data/theworld/2006/October/theworld_October243.xml&section=theworld&col=

If North Korea tests an atom bomb, neighbouring countries should hope its technology is sound, as a failed experiment could unleash potentially deadly radiation across Northeast Asia, experts said.  A failed test would also aggravate the political fallout as China, Russia and South Korea -- which support a conciliatory approach to the communist state -- would likely suffer the most besides North Korea itself.  North Korea, in a dramatic announcement last week that it will test its first atom bomb, said ‘safety will be thoroughly secured’  -- a possible reference to an underground experiment.  A series of reports based on diplomats and intelligence data have said that North Korea has drilled a hole in a mountain near the northern town of Chiktong for the nuclear test.  If conducted properly, a test either inside a mountain or underground would contain radiation . . . . .



*Japan's new leader heads to China *  
BBC Online, 8 Oct 06
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/4801583.stm

Japan's new prime minister, Shinzo Abe, has set off on the first visit to China by a Japanese leader for five years. As he left on the trip, which includes a visit to South Korea, Mr Abe said North Korea must not carry out its threat to test a nuclear weapon. Japan has warned that it will seek tough action from the United Nations if North Korea carries out a nuclear test . . . .



*North Korea's Nuclear Weapons Program*
Congressional Research Service Report #RL33590, 1 Aug 06
http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/71870.pdf

Summary:  North Korea's decisions at the end of 2002 to restart nuclear installations at Yongbyon that were shut down under the U.S.-North Korean Agreed Framework of 1994 and to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), and its multiple missile tests of July 4, 2006, create a foreign policy problem for the United States. Restarting the Yongbyon facilities opens up a possible North Korean intent to stage a "nuclear breakout" of its nuclear program and openly produce nuclear weapons. North Korea's actions follow the disclosure in October 2002 that North Korea is operating a secret nuclear program based on uranium enrichment and the decision by the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO) in November 2002 to suspend shipments of heavy oil to North Korea . . . .


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## The Bread Guy (8 Oct 2006)

Then again, why are we so worried?  He *seems* like a nice guy - just ask him  

*Kim Jong Il Absolutely Trusted by World People*
Korean News Service (PRK), 6 Oct 06

http://www.kcna.co.jp/item/2006/200610/news10/06.htm#3
   Pyongyang, October 5 (KCNA) -- The progressives repose profound trust in Kim Jong Il today when the people's struggle for independence has entered on a new high phase, says Rodong Sinmun in a signed article Thursday. Personages of different strata, political parties and organizations of various countries sent a large number of wholehearted gifts, congratulatory letters and messages of greetings to him and influential news media gave wide coverage of his revolutionary activities, the article says, and goes on: 
    The progressive people repose absolute trust in him, first of all, because they have a good understanding of the greatness of his feats. 
    Kim Jong Il has dedicated himself to the human cause of independence for a long time, performing outstanding ideological and theoretical exploits which no other politicians and great men in history can ever match. 
    In his famous work "Let Us Advance under the Banner of Marxism-Leninism and the Juche Idea" he set forth the issue of stepping up global independence as an important strategic task to accomplish the revolutionary cause of the working class and achieve victory of human cause of independence. He made public famous works one after another to clarify the revolutionary character, essence and goal of the cause of global independence, the appearance of the independent world and the way of accomplishing the human cause of independence. 
    With his energetic and tireless ideological and theoretical activities he proved the scientific accuracy and truth of the socialist idea and the inevitability of its victory to deal a telling blow to the imperialists keen on the anti-socialist campaign and instill faith in victory of the human cause of independence and revolutionary spirit into the revolutionary people of the world. 
    One of his outstanding feats is that he founded the political mode of Songun. 
    The progressive people repose absolute trust in him next because they believe that he will wisely lead the cause of global independence in the 21st century to victory with responsibility for its future.


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## dglad (8 Oct 2006)

milnewstbay said:
			
		

> Then again, why are we so worried?  He *seems* like a nice guy - just ask him
> 
> *Kim Jong Il Absolutely Trusted by World People*
> Korean News Service (PRK), 6 Oct 06



I might be willing to trust him...if it wasn't for those sunglasses.  What's up with that, anyway?


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## tomahawk6 (8 Oct 2006)

One can only hope that when the people get desperate enough they will revolt. If death is inevitable why not take to the streets ?


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## a_majoor (8 Oct 2006)

Interesting thought; the nuclear option is not primaraly aimed at the West (United States, ROK orJapan).

http://www.austinbay.net/blog/index.php?p=1469



> 10/8/2006
> *Meanwhile, at the Chinese-North Korean border…*
> Filed under: General— site admin @ 9:59 am
> StrategyPage and others have written about China’s border troubles with North Korea. Today the London Times publishes an informative and at times utterly graphic article. The article indicates China has deployed new military units in the border region.
> ...


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## tomahawk6 (9 Oct 2006)

Test is being reported as a success.


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## couchcommander (9 Oct 2006)

http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2006/10/08/korea-atomic.html



> N. Korea tests nuclear weapon
> Last Updated: Sunday, October 8, 2006 | 11:12 PM ET
> CBC News
> 
> ...



Welcome to an increasingly polycentric world. Scary, eh?


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## GAP (9 Oct 2006)

Already a thread on this here:

http://forums.army.ca/forums/threads/51319/post-458646/topicseen.html#new


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## couchcommander (9 Oct 2006)

The gravity of this event deserved it's own thread IMO. See above link for lead up though, indeed.


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## dglad (9 Oct 2006)

Particularly scary since the US Assistant Secretary of State said that North Korea "could have nuclear weapons, or a future, but not both".


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## Trinity (9 Oct 2006)

couchcommander said:
			
		

> The gravity of this event deserved it's own thread IMO. See above link for lead up though, indeed.



AGREED

Gravity of this definitely deserved its own thread.  I would have avoided the other
thread and not have known the test happened as I tired of the speculation. Definitely
keep this as its own thread.  But what do I know  :


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## The Bread Guy (9 Oct 2006)

*N. Korea tests nuclear weapon at Hwadaeri near Kilju: Defense Ministry*
Yonhap News (S.Korea), 9 Oct 06
http://english.yna.co.kr/Engnews/20061009/410100000020061009120954E5.html

North Korea is believed to have tested a nuclear weapon in the eastern part of the country Monday morning, a South Korean defense source said.  "We detected the explosive sound from Hwadaeri near Kilju in North Hamgyong Province at 10:36 a.m.(KST)," a senior Defense Ministry official said, asking to remain anonymous because of the sensitive nature of the information . . . .

Google Map Link to Kilju, North Korea
http://tinyurl.com/zk2nw


*N. Korea says it conducted successful nuclear weapons test*
Associated Press, via Minneapolis Star-Tribune, 8 Oct 06
http://www.startribune.com/722/story/729755.html

North Korea said Monday it has performed its first-ever nuclear weapons test. The country's official Korean Central News Agency said the test was performed successfully and there was no radioactive leakage from the site.  "The nuclear test is a historic event that brought happiness to the our military and people," KCNA said. 


*North Korea in nuclear test claim *  
BBC Online, 9 Oct 06
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/6032525.stm

Reports from North and South Korea say the communist authorities in North Korea have carried out their first ever test of a nuclear weapon. The North Korean state news agency said the underground test was a success. In South Korea, President Roh Moo-hyun convened a meeting of his top security officials following the reports . . . .


*Seoul shares tumble on NKorean nuke test reports *  
Forbes.com, 9 Oct 06
http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/afx/2006/10/08/afx3075209.html

Share prices tumbled, with the mainbord KOSPI dipping more than 3.0 pct, following a report that North Korea may have already conducted a nuclear test, dealers said. At 11:52 am, the KOSPI was down 46.97 points or 3.47 pct at 1,305.03 and the tech-heavy KOSDAQ fell 48.10 points or 8.19 pct to 539.22 . . . .


*US intelligence can't confirm NKorea nuclear test*
Reuters, 8 Oct 06
http://today.reuters.com/news/articlebusiness.aspx?type=tnBusinessNews&storyID=nN08219021&imageid=&cap=&from=business

U.S. intelligence cannot confirm North Korea conducted a nuclear test, an official said on Sunday.  "We cannot confirm," said a U.S. official who asked not to be identified because he was not authorized to speak publicly . . . .

Nothing posted yet (2335EDT) to Korean Central News Agency of DPRK
http://www.kcna.co.jp/index-e.htm


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## The Bread Guy (9 Oct 2006)

*N. Korea tests nuclear weapon at Hwadaeri near Kilju: Defense Ministry*Yonhap News (S.Korea), 9 Oct 06
http://english.yna.co.kr/Engnews/20061009/410100000020061009120954E5.html

North Korea is believed to have tested a nuclear weapon in the eastern part of the country Monday morning, a South Korean defense source said.  "We detected the explosive sound from Hwadaeri near Kilju in North Hamgyong Province at 10:36 a.m.(KST)," a senior Defense Ministry official said, asking to remain anonymous because of the sensitive nature of the information . . . .

_*Google Map Link to Kilju, North Korea*_
http://tinyurl.com/zk2nw


*N. Korea says it conducted successful nuclear weapons test*
Associated Press, via Minneapolis Star-Tribune, 8 Oct 06
http://www.startribune.com/722/story/729755.html

North Korea said Monday it has performed its first-ever nuclear weapons test. The country's official Korean Central News Agency said the test was performed successfully and there was no radioactive leakage from the site.  "The nuclear test is a historic event that brought happiness to the our military and people," KCNA said. 


*North Korea in nuclear test claim  * 
BBC Online, 9 Oct 06
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/6032525.stm

Reports from North and South Korea say the communist authorities in North Korea have carried out their first ever test of a nuclear weapon. The North Korean state news agency said the underground test was a success. In South Korea, President Roh Moo-hyun convened a meeting of his top security officials following the reports . . . .


*Seoul shares tumble on NKorean nuke test reports  * 
Forbes.com, 9 Oct 06
http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/afx/2006/10/08/afx3075209.html

Share prices tumbled, with the mainbord KOSPI dipping more than 3.0 pct, following a report that North Korea may have already conducted a nuclear test, dealers said. At 11:52 am, the KOSPI was down 46.97 points or 3.47 pct at 1,305.03 and the tech-heavy KOSDAQ fell 48.10 points or 8.19 pct to 539.22 . . . .


*US intelligence can't confirm NKorea nuclear test*
Reuters, 8 Oct 06
http://today.reuters.com/news/articlebusiness.aspx?type=tnBusinessNews&storyID=nN08219021&imageid=&cap=&from=business

U.S. intelligence cannot confirm North Korea conducted a nuclear test, an official said on Sunday.  "We cannot confirm," said a U.S. official who asked not to be identified because he was not authorized to speak publicly . . . .

Nothing posted yet (2338EDT) to Korean Central News Agency of DPRK
http://www.kcna.co.jp/index-e.htm


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## Long Sword (9 Oct 2006)

Will North Korea try to trade its nuke for foreign aid or does it intend to keep it for long term political gain?


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## 1feral1 (9 Oct 2006)

We knew this would happen. Now just wait and see to which pack of a$$holes they'll sell one too.

Yes, and they will!

Regards,

Wes


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## rz350 (9 Oct 2006)

I;m hoping it strokes their ego and makes them feel secure enough to just STFU and get back to trying to run a country. (maybe now that they've done it, they can spend some precious $$ on things like farming)


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## Korus (9 Oct 2006)

From CNEWS: 
http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/World/2006/10/07/1971286-ap.html



> The country's official Korean Central News Agency said the underground test was performed successfully "with indigenous wisdom and technology 100 per cent," and that no radioactive material leaked from that test site



Underground test with no radioactive material leaked from the test site.. Which means no way to confirm if it was a nuclear detonation, or just a heck of a lot of explosives, a la early Manhattan project tests to see what an explosion that big will look like.

It's not like NK has always been the most honest of states..

Just something to think about before more details come to light.


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## xo31@711ret (9 Oct 2006)

Either way, madness pure & simple madness

-gerry


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## Korus (9 Oct 2006)

No argument there, Gerry.


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## Bert (9 Oct 2006)

Has it been objectively confirmed a detonation has taken place?  I can't get
past that Team American movie character.


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## couchcommander (9 Oct 2006)

South Korea is confirming, US is non-committal at this point, USGS measurements have indicated a 4.2 level quake in the area. Something went boom.

*edit* according to my own calculations (BEWARE! I AM A HISTORY STUDENT! ) that's about a 5 2 kiloton bomb. (told you not to trust a History student's math)


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## xo31@711ret (9 Oct 2006)

Well with the NK 'government' I can only see an escalation of political manoeuvring now that they believe they have a "trump" card to play. Their economy is / has been in the s***hole for years, their people starving due to famine, espionage, kidnapping, etc. It remains to be seen how their neighbours such as SK and Japan will respond; fingers crossed.

-gerry


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## Bert (9 Oct 2006)

I guess the event, nuclear or not, may need clarification anyway.


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## The Bread Guy (9 Oct 2006)

Yeah, this'll help  :

*Security Council expected to hold emergency meeting on NKorea's nuclear test *  
Agence France Presse, 9 Oct 06
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20061009/wl_afp/nkoreanuclearweaponsun_061009070737

The UN Security Council was expected to hold an emergency meeting to weigh how to respond to        North Korea's first-ever nuclear weapons test in brazen defiance of a UN resolution.  Hours after the communist state's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) announced a successful underground nuclear test, the White House Monday said that if confirmed the move would be a "provocative act" and called for immediate action by the UN Security Council.  Only Friday, the 15-member Council unanimously adopted a non-binding statement calling on Pyongyang not to go ahead with the test and warned of unspecified consequences if it did so . . . .


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## The Bread Guy (9 Oct 2006)

Text of PRK statement, via Agence France Presse:
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/09/world/asia/09ktext.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

The field of scientific research in the DPRK [Democratic People’s Republic of Korea] successfully conducted an underground nuclear test under secure conditions on October 9, Juche 95 [2006] at a stirring time when all the people of the country are making a great leap forward in the building of a great, prosperous, powerful socialist nation.

It has been confirmed that there was no such danger from radioactive emission in the course of the nuclear test, as it was carried out under scientific consideration and careful calculation.

The nuclear test was conducted with indigenous wisdom and technology, 100 percent.

It marks a historic event as it greatly encouraged and pleased the KPA [Korean People’s Army] and people that have wished to have powerful self-reliant defense capability.

It will contribute to defending the peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and in the area around it.


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## Echo9 (9 Oct 2006)

There's only 2 ways for the problems with the Norks to end.

1.  US acts unilaterally in a surprise strike, to decapitate the Nork leadership and the conventional arty threat to the south.  Based on the way that the US does business, not likely.

2.  China acts because it perceives a real threat to its own interests.  I would suggest that the only threat to its interests that would get it to act would be if one of Japan, South Korea or Taiwan chose to nuclearize in response to the Norks.  Anything up to that point is likely tolerable from the Chinese perspective.  Sure, they'll issue condemnations, and such, but they won't actually do anything to contain the threat.

It's all about to go Pete Tong...


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## tomahawk6 (9 Oct 2006)

3. No military action. More economic sanctions. >


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## The Bread Guy (9 Oct 2006)

If you want to know more about what the US Geological Survey spotted:

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/ustqab.php

Earthquake Details
Magnitude 4.2 (Light) 
Date-Time Monday, October 9, 2006 at 01:35:27 (UTC)
= Coordinated Universal Time 
Monday, October 9, 2006 at 10:35:27 AM 
= local time at epicenter Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones 

Location 41.294°N, 129.134°E 
Depth 0 km (~0 mile) set by location program 
Region NORTH KOREA 
Distances 70 km (40 miles) N of Kimchaek, North Korea
90 km (55 miles) SW of Chongjin, North Korea
180 km (115 miles) S of Yanji, Jilin, China
385 km (240 miles) NE of PYONGYANG, North Korea

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 9.6 km (6.0 miles); depth fixed by location program 
Parameters Nst= 17, Nph= 17, Dmin=371.4 km, Rmss=0.86 sec, Gp= 83°,
M-type=body magnitude (Mb), Version=7  
Source USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)

Event ID ustqab 

This event has been reviewed by a seismologist. 

LOTSA Maps...
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/ustqab.php#maps


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## Taylor187 (9 Oct 2006)

If the UN security counsel goes soft of NK, what kind of message will that send to Iran then?

If they dont put thier foot down on this I think things will get more interesting in the ME as time rolls on.


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## Mike Baker (9 Oct 2006)

It increasingly reminds me of a film I saw this summer, The Day After. Not good at all.


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## cplcaldwell (9 Oct 2006)

The President of the United States is making a televised address on this issue _now_, see your local CNN, CBC Newsworld or CTV Newsnet feed.


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## Mike Baker (9 Oct 2006)

cplcaldwell said:
			
		

> The President of the United States is making a televised address on this issue _now_, see your local CNN, CBC Newsworld or CTV Newsnet feed.


Just saw it, never really said if it was an actual test of a nuclear weapon or lots of TNT.


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## tomahawk6 (9 Oct 2006)

The best thing we can do is to encourage the Japanese and ROK's to develope nuclear weapons. I would favor giving them some US nuclear weapons. This is something the Chinese dont want to see and makes them pay a price for not stopping the NK nuclear program.


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## bilton090 (9 Oct 2006)

It's not looking good !, China, Japan & the Soviet's need to get on them fast !
    SCARY SHIT !
                       
                 P.S- North Korea is not the people you ought to see with nuclear capability !


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## warspite (9 Oct 2006)

warspite said:
			
		

> -*Experts claim that a test could come as early as this Sunday(tomorrow), the anniversary of Kim Jong-il's coming to power(read this on CBC but can't find the article).*


*



			To sum it up...... It's gonna blow

Click to expand...

You know sometimes I hate being right.

So thoughts anyone on whats going to happen from here? 
Will the U.S. flatten N. Korea?
Will China beat them to it?
Thoughts anyone?


*


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## dglad (9 Oct 2006)

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> The best thing we can do is to encourage the Japanese and ROK's to develope nuclear weapons. I would favor giving them some US nuclear weapons. This is something the Chinese dont want to see and makes them pay a price for not stopping the NK nuclear program.



If you did that, you'd have a hard time justifying a non-proliferation line regarding Iran...and, for that matter, Egypt, Syria, Venezuela, or any other country wealthy enough to afford the technology to manufacture nuclear weapons.

This really does represent a watershed moment in global security.  This is the moment at which nuclear weapons development either remains under relatively tight control--largely because of a consensual agreement among nations that it should--or begins to spread, more or less unchecked (incidentally, someone said this could be like "The Day After"...that followed a scenario of full-scale nuclear war between the U.S. and the Soviet Union.  More likely is the scenario in the current show "Jericho", or a book called "War Day".  Both demonstrate how even relatively limited nuclear attacks will have massive impacts on those who never even hear the sound of a nuclear detonation.)


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## tomahawk6 (9 Oct 2006)

China provides food and energy to the NK regime. They could have stopped the program but didnt because it suits their purpose to have a nuclear North Korea. What they dont want is a nuclear Japan, a counterweight to their power in asia. Japan is stable and reliable, unlike Iran and North Korea. Once Iran gets the bomb there will be nuclear proliferation.


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## dglad (9 Oct 2006)

I think China's motivation to not simply cut off aid to NK was to avoid collapsing what little life there is that country's economy, and end up with hundreds of thousands , if not millions, of economic refugees streaming into China and South Korea.  In fact, I'd go so far as to suggest that China is probably quite unhappy that its "proxy' just went ahead and detonated a nuke (well, appear to have, anyway, assuming it wasn't 5-15 kt of TNT detonated in an underground excavation).  There's really not much advantage that I can see, from China's point of view, to a nuclear-armed NK.  All it does is threaten to destabilize an already difficult situation on their eastern border, exactly when their economy is running red-hot and is becoming increasingly dependent on access to Western markets, resources and investment capital.


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## dglad (9 Oct 2006)

As suggested above, no one is going to flatten anything.  The result would be massive outflux of refugees from NK into China and SK.  Moreover, before the "flattening" is complete, NK will have had ample opportunity to devastate large bits of SK with artillery fire.

NK has to definitively prove that they detonated a nuclear weapon, and didn't stage it with kilotons of TNT.  But assuming the worst, that they did, then the next step is to manage the whole region's stability.  Perhaps a combination of carefully designed economic sanctions, taken to together with some very careful intelligence gathering inside NK to locate probable nuclear weapons facilities, as well as conventional assets such as long-range artillery that could fire on e.g. Seoul is in order.  If a military response is warranted, it must be able to immediately cripple NK's ability to strike back, either with nuclear or conventional means (I suspect this latter activity has been going on for some time now).

In any case, the global community has to do SOMETHING both firm and obvious, to send a message to other states that might be considering nuclear weapons development (Iran, certainly, but there are undoubtedly others).


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## vonGarvin (9 Oct 2006)

Would the following be an accurate weather forecast for Pyongyang?
"Fair to cool in the morning, followed by a rapid spike of temperature to that approaching the surface of the sun.  Winds initially breezy, with a high possibility of gusts of upwards of 500 km/h radiating outward from Kim Jong Il's (or whatever his name is) house.  Residents are warned to stay inside downwind in order to avoid high doses of radiation"


 >


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## couchcommander (9 Oct 2006)

Russia is confirming it was a nuclear explosion. IMO the US can't strike, Seoul would be gone. As for the Security Council... cats kinda out of the bag now... but I suppose they *could*, I mean if they wanted to take concrete action, get very very angry, and then write them a letter telling them how angry they are.


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## Trinity (9 Oct 2006)

couchcommander said:
			
		

> Russia is confirming it was a nuclear explosion. IMO the US can't strike, Seoul would be gone. As for the Security Council... cats kinda out of the bag now... but I suppose they *could*, I mean if they wanted to take concrete action, get very very angry, and then write them a letter telling them how angry they are.



Um.. after seeing you in the army.ca t-shirt.... I can't take your political opinion seriously.


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## Bert (9 Oct 2006)

I'd say nuclear proliferation was here, here now, and in the future.  Many countries have nuclear 
weapons now is the case in point.  Missile technology, bomb technology, enriched materials,
and the R&D that makes it more efficient is available in bits and pieces.  Those that seek to influence
global or regional will acquire a level of nuclear capability somehow.

The fact that the US, France, Britian, Russia, China, even Israel, India, and Pakistan have nuclear
capability does not  bother me.  There wasn't anything we could do to stop them from gathering this
capability however they've demonstrated responsibility and managed to keep a balance of things.  
Countries like Iran and North Korea are unpredictable, have not demonstrated responsibility in the
case of NK, and have beyond the need of national security threatened other countries in the case of 
Iran. 

The logical move is to stop any country that seeks to bring a more unpredictable nature to this
balance of things or making it worse, despite the argument that if someone else has the bomb 
and has influence, then they should rightfully have it too.  The vary nature of Russia, the US, the EU, 
and China trying to compete/control regional issues for their own well being allows these other minor 
players to seek their nuclear arsenals.  Sanctions and talks since the 1950s haven't stopped NK from 
apparently acquiring a level of nuclear capability, further sanctions likely won't be that effective.  
An opportunity may exist with the fact the KimJong dynasty won't last forever.


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## couchcommander (9 Oct 2006)

Trinity said:
			
		

> Um.. after seeing you in the army.ca t-shirt.... I can't take your political opinion seriously.



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dKQYsE_Qwec

"We will be very, very angry with you.."


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## Kirkhill (9 Oct 2006)

From GAP : A New Look at the Afghanistan-Pakistan Problem
http://forums.army.ca/forums/threads/51227/post-458100.html#msg458100



> What I see, woven through this (the Afghanistan-Pakistan thread) and other threads, news releases, etc., is that China is really pushing the envelope in the Asia/Pacific and South American regions where they are gaining footholds as Russia and the US lose them for fall out of favor. This does not bode well in the next few decades.



So who does a nuclear armed North Korea present most problems to?  China or the US?
A nuclear capable North Korea also seems to have acted as a goad to South Korea and Japan.

So conspiracy time again. > >

Was it in the US's interests to prevent North Korea getting the bomb? Or was it worthwhile dragging their feet a bit? 

 :warstory:  Moving out of the line of fire now.


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## GAP (9 Oct 2006)

As a neophyte I would guess that it was in the US's interest to strain the relations between China and NK. The possibility of NK developing some accurate, long range delivery system in the very near future is not likely without sophisticated help.


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## Kirkhill (9 Oct 2006)

couchcommander said:
			
		

> Russia is confirming it was a nuclear explosion. IMO the US can't strike, Seoul would be gone. As for the Security Council... cats kinda out of the bag now... but I suppose they *could*, I mean if they wanted to take concrete action, get very very angry,  and then write them a letter telling them how angry they are.



Suddenly I am channeling Elmer Fudd.


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## tomahawk6 (9 Oct 2006)

I reiterate that the US must help Japan, ROK and even Taiwan get nuclear weapons. This will send a strong message to China.


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## a_majoor (9 Oct 2006)

Threatening the DPRK with sanctions is pointless, the nation is economically isolated already, and how much swag does the leadership really need (i.e. if you could smuggle a single container ship's worth of goods over a year, would that be enough to keep the elites satisfied?)

The only possible way to make economic sanctions "work" would be a total land, sea and air blockade of the DPRK, but since China controlls the land frontier and has not taken steps to eliminate the DPRK's ability to go nuclear, you can see how well that is going to work. Perhaps a simple "time out" will do. The United States, ROK and other nations which have propped up the DPRK in the past for humanitarian or other reasons should simply say that all aid is suspended pending a reassessment of the situation. China can carry the can as far as supplying food, fuel and other aid if they want to (and self interest suggests they may well have to indeed).

Kaplan's article in the Atlantic suggests that the DPRK could disintegrate into warlordism based around existing military formations; if there is any way to make contact with senior military personnel and get them thinking about the post "Dear Leader" period (and getting through the rough patch with our help), then that is one avenue to explore. A "Science fiction" sort of scenario would involve using a wave of Electro Magnetic Pulse (EMP) weapons to paralyze the DPRK's command and control network, it isn't like they can switch over to the Internet or something. The military will be paralyzed and have difficulty threatening Seoul or anything else, while the civilian sector will see little disruption (stuck as it is with a very primitive communications network). The Western military would have to stand ready to respond, but if something like this happend at midnight local time and no overt Western activity happened thereafter, how would the DPRK react?

Unfortunately the Atlantic Monthly article is for subscribers only (or you can buy the magazine), but it is well worth reading.


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## couchcommander (9 Oct 2006)

tomahawk6 said:
			
		

> I reiterate that the US must help Japan, ROK and even Taiwan get nuclear weapons. This will send a strong message to China.



It would also increase the risk of a nuclear war breaking out. Remember we're not talking about MAD situations here, these are countries and situations that could very well justify the periodic use of tactical nuclear strikes.


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## warspite (10 Oct 2006)

couchcommander said:
			
		

> It would also increase the risk of a nuclear war breaking out. Remember we're not talking about MAD situations here, these are countries and situations that could very well justify the periodic use of tactical nuclear strikes.


Exactly right. We've got to remember this isn't the U.S. and Soviet Russia. The situation is very different.



			
				a_majoor said:
			
		

> Unfortunately the Atlantic Monthly article is for subscribers only (or you can buy the magazine), but it is well worth reading.


Or you could check out your public library ;D


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## a_majoor (10 Oct 2006)

Of course the most complicit group is trying to blame this on the current administration. When you go to the link and check out the picture, you will see it is *NOT* Dr. Rice toasting the "Dear Leader"

http://kerplonka.blogspot.com/2006/10/from-party-that-brought-you-1994.html



> *From the party that brought you the 1994 Korean Appeasement Package comes... *
> THIS. http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061010/ap_on_el_ge/us_north_korea_politics
> 
> I've been saving this .gif for just such an occasion:
> ...



The food and oil that was delivered to the DPRK starting in 1994 certainly went a long way to proppong up the regime so they could last long enough to pull this off. But then again, the Democrats don't even know enough to post a picture of an American soldier on a web page devoted to saying how much they support their troops (the page has been changed, but you can see what happened here: http://michellemalkin.com/archives/006073.htm).


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## couchcommander (10 Oct 2006)

They were under the impression the state would collaspe quickly, so they decided this would be the best action in the mean time (as opposed to doing virtually nothing). 

At least they didn't invade the wrong country, however. Now THAT would be embarassing, especially considering the right country had publically announced it had built the bomb months before they went ahead.


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## tomahawk6 (10 Oct 2006)

couchcommander said:
			
		

> It would also increase the risk of a nuclear war breaking out. Remember we're not talking about MAD situations here, these are countries and situations that could very well justify the periodic use of tactical nuclear strikes.



Rogue states getting nuclear weapons is like gun control. The only people with guns are the criminals. If a rogue state has nuclear weapons and you dont then you are vulnerable to blackmail and bullying. If China wants to be the only nuclear power then they must shut down the NK nuclear program or else see new nuclear powers in their neighborhood.


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## Kirkhill (10 Oct 2006)

Further to the concern about Japan adopting nuclear weapons - perhaps not?

A few months ago China issued a warning to the US that use of PGMs (Precision Guided Munitions) in China would result in China resorting to nuclear retaliation.  I took this as an indication that China believes that the US no longer needs to go nuclear to achieve strategic aims and also that China lacks the ability to counter such an effort by restricting itself to the same weapons. Perhaps due to a lack of plaforms (forward airfields, aircraft carriers, ICBM subs, limited numbers of long range bombers etc.) and perhaps due to a lack of technology (GPS, computer chips.....).

Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are all well capable of fielding PGMs. In fact I believe they already do.  None of them lack the ability to put rounds on the Chinese mainland.  The only thing preventing them is politics.  If Japan adjusts its constitution then one more "caveat" is removed from the equation.  N. Korea has just made it that much easier for Japan's new Prime Minister to make that shift.  China's neighbourhood just became that much more dangerous.

In addition the Nuclear ICBM threat now demontstrated also makes it more pallatable for Japan, South Korea and Taiwan to deploy and enhance Ballistic Missile Defences both by acquiring their own systems and by welcoming allied systems (such as AEGIS cruisers) into their territory.   These systems may or may not have 100% efficiency but they will tend to degrade the ability of local ICBMs to successfully get past the critical boost stage when the missile is moving slowly and accelerating.  All of this layering will have the advantage of improving the defences of the US and countering the offensive capabilities of not just North Korea but also China (and to a lesser extent Russia).  

IMHO, China is the biggest loser out of their inability to contain North Korea. They have not just lost face but strategic advantage.  Dear Leader has just demonstrated himself to be China's version of Hugo Chavez - but less rational, better armed and more unstable - not to mention physically closer.



> October 10, 2006
> 
> 
> Japan Now Seems Likely to Rally Behind New Prime Minister’s Call for a Stronger Military
> ...



http://www.nytimes.com/learning/students/pop/articles/10japan.html


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## a_majoor (10 Oct 2006)

+1 to Kirkhill. 

A vast arsenal of PGMs deployed from multiple nations and platforms would degrade the conventional military threat from China, the DPRK and Russia, making the Western Pacific that much more of an American lake. The only down side to military action in that part of the world (besides uncontrolled escalation) is the physical closeness and thus minimum response time available to most of the parties involved.

The United States does have strategic depth, since PACCOM covers such a huge region, and additional support can come from various other commands (while actions take place in Korea, American and allied forces could deploy from Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, for example). If the Anglosphere comes into action (as it probably must, given the high stakes), then resources from North America, England, India and Australia are available, and America, as the world's only "oceanic" power has the ability to project these resources to and from virtually any spot on the globe.

An interesting side note is the wide range of variables in the analysis of the blast. Even without "expert" commentary, I noticed that many of the estimated yields were well into the "sub nuclear" or "fizzle" yield. In other words, there is a radioactive mess at the bottom of the tunnel, but there may not have been a nuclear chain reaction. Coupled with the poor performance of the DPRK's Fourth of July fireworks display, it is probably far more prudent to work on a counter to the DPRK's artillery park aimed at Seoul rather than to obsess about their nuclear ambitions. 

Regardless, the fact that China, Russia and South Korea have finally had their wishful thinking about the DPRK dispelled "could" lead to the breakthrough that is needed, a coordinated shut down of the flow of money and resources into the DPRK, leading to the final collapse as the umbilical cord is cut.


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## Hexx (10 Oct 2006)

And as has been mentioned it's unlikely China and SK really want the regime to collapse with the resultant
refugee situations. Not to mention the possibility (however remote) of a collapsing regime with a few nukes
and nothing to lose.


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