# Afghans defeating the Taliban



## VinceW (14 Mar 2013)

In the Panjwai district in Kandahar Province most of the villages have kicked the Taliban out without any military help and the last 4 villages are expected to be rid of the Taliban soon.
This is similar to the Arab uprising that started in Tunisia hopefully this spreads elsewere.

http://www.armytimes.com/news/2013/03/ap-commander-robert-abrams-encouraged-anti-taliban-uprising-031313/


----------



## Popurhedoff (14 Mar 2013)

This is indeed good news,  the Afghanistan society is based on respect, to disrespect and humiliate the village Elder is more than they will accept. I hope that this continues and more villages join in.

Cheers
Pop


----------



## WLSC (14 Mar 2013)

Absoloutly great news !  Maybe (in my optimistic mind) our footprints in the sand stayed a little longuer then expected !?


----------



## rmc_wannabe (14 Mar 2013)

Terrific news. To be fair, I don't feel people in Panjwayi were ever respected by the Taliban. They work more on a policy of intimidation and fear. (Night letters anyone?) I think the locals finally had enough of their bullying and hit back so to speak.

I'm sure this will make life easier for NATO and the ANSF if they play it right.


----------



## Dissident (14 Mar 2013)

Popurhedoff said:
			
		

> This is indeed good news,  the Afghanistan society is based on respect, to disrespect and humiliate the village Elder is more than they will accept. I hope that this continues and more villages join in.
> 
> Cheers
> Pop



Keep us updated Pop, your perspective is greatly appreciated.


----------



## GAP (14 Mar 2013)

Popurhedoff said:
			
		

> This is indeed good news,  the Afghanistan society is based on respect, to disrespect and humiliate the village Elder is more than they will accept. I hope that this continues and more villages join in.
> 
> Cheers
> Pop



I have always had the impression the Afghan people were capable of cleaning their own house, but didn't for want of many things, one probably being capable leadership. 

Now the Afghan government needs to support them.  

 :2c:


----------



## little jim (14 Mar 2013)

VinceW said:
			
		

> This is similar to the Arab uprising that started in Tunisia hopefully this spreads elsewere.



Arab Spring.  I doubt it.  

While I am in no way discounting the significance of the various villages in Panjwa'i rising against the insurgents, but it can also be looked at that given the success in Z/P/M of the ALP a lot of the villages dont want to be the last ones who are letting the insurgents work out of them.  

MG Abrams entire speech to the Pentagon press corps (http://www.defense.gov/Transcripts/Transcript.aspx?TranscriptID=5204) is interesting - in particular:

"The enemy is desperately grasping for relevancy in small pockets of southern Afghanistan this year. His 2012 campaign, Al-Farooq, was a complete failure here in the south in every stated area of their plan that included the retaking of terrain that was lost in previous years fighting. He struggles to maintain a steady drumbeat of violence that could intimidate a populace, a populace that has embraced a life of stability and security provided by their Afghan security forces. 

            This enemy is challenged with numerous senior leaders fractures, poor financial support, and now faces not only a very capable ANSF, but we have a growing number of Afghan local police, trained, armed and equipped to defend their own villages. In addition, the ANSF are on a glide path to lead and secure approximately 97 percent of the population in R.C. South this summer, through Milestone 2013, their year to be leading security during the traditional fighting season." 


It is a positive step forward; but as GAP identified the people and the Security Forces are doing their thing; the government needs to complete the task.


----------



## Journeyman (14 Mar 2013)

You'll forgive me if I don't marshal the band-wagons for a victory parade just yet...._especially_ based on an Army Times report.


----------



## Old Sweat (14 Mar 2013)

In a region that has survived under minimal central government control for decades, perhaps the last thing needed is the arrival of the "I'm from Kabul and I'm here to help" crowd. The villages probably can survive quite nicely on their own under the protection of their own militia/police.

I'm with Journeyman on this one, which may shake his confidence a bit.  ;D


----------



## Colin Parkinson (14 Mar 2013)

Still I think we have "poisoned the well" for the Taliban, roads, cell networks, education, these are all things the Taliban will have to restrict and the ability to restrict people and cut them off is harder to do than in the 90's. We may not win, but I don't think the Taliban will either.


----------



## The Bread Guy (14 Mar 2013)

Colin P said:
			
		

> Still I think we have "poisoned the well" for the Taliban, roads, cell networks, education, these are all things the Taliban will have to restrict and the ability to restrict people and cut them off is harder to do than in the 90's. We may not win, but I don't think the Taliban will either.


I hope you're right, but those roads, cell networks and education all have to keep on going _after_ NATO leaves.  And as much as Karzai wants foreign troops out, he should be careful what he wishes for.


----------



## rmc_wannabe (14 Mar 2013)

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> I hope you're right, but those roads, cell networks and education all have to keep on going _after_ NATO leaves.  And as much as Karzai wants foreign troops out, he should be careful what he wishes for.



Posturing and policy are two different things.

He may talk tough about getting NATO out of Afghanistan to appeal to more hardline Afghans. However, I don't believe someone so opposed to Western forces staying in Afghanistan would sign the Chicago Agreement.

Politics are universal


----------



## Colin Parkinson (14 Mar 2013)

Iran has no love for the Taliban, supporting them was only useful as long as the US is there, that relationship will end soon. A fairly stable, peaceful Afghanistan is in Iran's best long term interests and I suspect they will push there influence more, certainly in the Western half. Pakistan should have learned long ago that a peaceful Afghanistan is also in their best interests, but that country is to mucked up to figure it out. Once NATO is gone, Pakistan loses a lot of pull (blackmail material) and hopefully will see western funding cut. I can see Afghanistan fragmenting into North Western and southeast parts, mostly along tribal lines. A Greater Pashtunastan would turn it's eyes east to the NWF which should keep Pakistan out of the rest of Afghanistan. the rest would align with Russia, the other stans and Iran for trade and support. Hopefully the Pashtuns and Pakistan exhaust themselves on each other.


----------



## Journeyman (14 Mar 2013)

Old Sweat said:
			
		

> I'm with Journeyman on this one, which may shake his confidence a bit.  ;D


"A true measure of brilliance lay in how much someone agrees with you"


----------



## GAP (14 Mar 2013)

well..............


----------



## a_majoor (14 Mar 2013)

China, India and Iran all have reasons for wanting a stable and secure Afghanistan (although not all the reasons are complimentary or overlapping), so there will be a wellspring of support after the West has left.

As for what we left behind, it may or may not be the blessing we hoped for. When the USMC left Haiti for the last time in the 1930's  they had built roads, schools and hospitals, trained a police force and established a customs and excise service which efficiently provided revenues for governance. The local elites simply considered these things prizes to plunder, which set the stage for today. The real test is do the Afghan "elites" consider infrastructure to be a foundation or plunder.


----------



## GAP (15 Mar 2013)

plunder


----------



## GnyHwy (15 Mar 2013)

We will see how many poppy fields are grown in the coming years.  That is the best indicator as far as I can tell.  Who is controlling them, the Taliban or just plain bad guys?  Does it really matter?

Did we go there to stop the Taliban or the organization that harbours and trains our enemy?  I realize they may have been the same group 12 years ago, but are they now?  I don't even know if the Taliban are our enemy anymore.  They weren't 30 years ago, and if Pakistan ever sorts their crap out, they might not be in the future.  Likely, they would just be renamed, or hidden in the system, but the same dudes nonetheless.

When the locals are growing food or other commodities instead of poppies I will believe it.


----------



## George Wallace (15 Mar 2013)

GnyHwy said:
			
		

> ...........  Likely, they would just be renamed, or hidden in the system, but the same dudes nonetheless.



Interesting point:  We call them "Taliban", but the locals don't.  "Taliban" is something we started using for some reason unknown to me, perhaps to differentiate them from the Mujahideen, whom the Americans supported.  Taliban actually means "students", which no doubt causes multiple cases of mistaken identities.


----------



## The_Falcon (15 Mar 2013)

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> I hope you're right, but those roads, cell networks and education all have to keep on going _after_ NATO leaves.  And as much as Karzai wants foreign troops out, he should be careful what he wishes for.



Karzai has issues with the US, however NATO is not going anywhere. http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/04/us-afghanistan-nato-rasmussen-idUSBRE9230KT20130304


----------



## Colin Parkinson (15 Mar 2013)

George Wallace said:
			
		

> Interesting point:  We call them "Taliban", but the locals don't.  "Taliban" is something we started using for some reason unknown to me, perhaps to differentiate them from the Mujahideen, whom the Americans supported.  Taliban actually means "students", which no doubt causes multiple cases of mistaken identities.



The original Taliban came from the refugee camps in Pakistan, with Mullah Omar as their leader. From my reading the ISI raised, trained and tasked them to clear the roads in Afghanistan of the warlords roadblocks at the bequest of the Pakistani trucking Mafia. The Taliban did way better than expected and took control of most of the country, along the way picking up supporters and alliances. I suspect most of the people from the 90's are dead, maimed or retired, Omar is a figurehead leader that only has so much power and apparently not been in Afghanistan for almost a decade. With NATO gone as a threat the Taliban might surge for a bit, but beyond a local governance, what else can they offer? They can't raise much in the way of funds except through poppy harvests and they are involved in a long complicated war in the NWF. If the Taliban succeed in taking over again I can't see the other ethnic groups willing to submit again to them. At some point we will be back to the 90's with Iran, Russia and West all having a common interest in containing the Taliban. Without an external threat, I don't see the Taliban staying intact. The same alliances will chafe and rebel and with funds being tight, local governance demands I don't see the local warlord coughing over large sums to the senior councils, most living in Pakistan. 
Plus if Pakistan unravels, the Taliban may lose much of their logistical and intelligence support.


----------



## Edward Campbell (15 Mar 2013)

Colin P said:
			
		

> The original Taliban came from the refugee camps in Pakistan, with Mullah Omar as their leader. From my reading the ISI raised, trained and tasked them to clear the roads in Afghanistan of the warlords roadblocks at the bequest of the Pakistani trucking Mafia. The Taliban did way better than expected and took control of most of the country, along the way picking up supporters and alliances. I suspect most of the people from the 90's are dead, maimed or retired, Omar is a figurehead leader that only has so much power and apparently not been in Afghanistan for almost a decade. With NATO gone as a threat the Taliban might surge for a bit, but beyond a local governance, what else can they offer? They can't raise much in the way of funds except through poppy harvests and they are involved in a long complicated war in the NWF. If the Taliban succeed in taking over again I can't see the other ethnic groups willing to submit again to them. At some point we will be back to the 90's with Iran, Russia and West all having a common interest in containing the Taliban. Without an external threat, I don't see the Taliban staying intact. The same alliances will chafe and rebel and with funds being tight, local governance demands I don't see the local warlord coughing over large sums to the senior councils, most living in Pakistan.
> Plus if Pakistan unravels, the Taliban may lose much of their logistical and intelligence support.




And please don't forget the role of the Saudis in all this. The House of Saud, the royal family, funds networks of _madrassas_ (schools, of sorts, that teach young boys to read and interpret the _Quran_ in accordance with _Wahhabi_ principles) around the world. Many are in the Northwest Frontier Province of Pakistan and they are, generally, seen as being the "recruiting base" of the Taliban (_Talib_ means student).


----------



## The Bread Guy (15 Mar 2013)

Colin P said:
			
		

> .... From my reading the ISI raised, trained and tasked them to clear the roads in Afghanistan of the warlords roadblocks at the bequest of the Pakistani trucking Mafia ....


Would love to read more along this story line - any decent easily-available refs to share?  Thanks!


----------



## Colin Parkinson (15 Mar 2013)

His books give a good introduction to the situation outlining the time prior and the birth of the Taliban. It's quite likely your public library has some of them. Often you can request your library to buy books. 
Ahmed Rashid
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ahmed_Rashid


----------

