# 2018  Ontario General Election



## Crispy Bacon (14 Jun 2014)

Looks like we need to start the 2018 Ontario General Election thread.

Here's my short list for potential Ontario PC Party leader replacements (in no particular order... yet):

- Lisa MacLeod - she's a young (under 40), married woman in a safe riding and is and has been an important Hudak Opposition critic.
- Michael Chong - a principled small 'c' conservative, former federal cabinet minister, currently has a bill before the House that would see political party leaders' powers constrained
- John Baird - cut his teeth in provincial politics as a Harris-era cabinet minister
- Tony Clement - cut his teeth in provincial politics as a Harris-era cabinet minister
- Vic Fedeli - Hudak's finance critic, but not really well known
- Randy Hillier - he's run for leadership before as a right(er)-wing conservative representing rural communities and traditional conservative values

Baird and Clement were recruited by Harper to give Harper's cabinet strong Ontario ministers.  If both or either resign from federal cabinet to run provincially the feds will be losing some crucial Ontario ministers. Right now, it would seem to me that the conservatives will want to get away from the Harris comparisons, so they will stay away from electing anyone associated with that false baggage.  As well, they will need to break through in Toronto if they want to have a chance of forming the next government, so a leadership candidate might represent a GTA riding (e.g. Christine Elliott) or they might come from a Toronto-based power company (a law firm, Bay Street, etc).

Others: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-votes-2014/ontario-election-2014-potential-contenders-to-replace-tim-hudak-as-pc-leader-1.2674283


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## George Wallace (14 Jun 2014)

Lisa MacLeod's name has been bandied about a fair amount lately.







......and Topic now split to form 2018 Ontario General Election.......In anticipation......Subject to change, of course.


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## Old Sweat (14 Jun 2014)

In the meantime, here are some points to ponder:

a. the various public sector unions, except OPSEU, will expect payback at the bargaining table. Ms Wynne has promised to follow the collective bargaining process when negotiating their next contracts and they rightly will expect just that.

b. the financial position of the province is such that a freeze in compensation and in numbers, perhaps even a reduction in numbers, will be necessary to satisfy the bond rating agencies and the lenders who have been financing the deficit spending over the past several years. Or the government could just hike our taxes to reward the unions for their support.

c. the public at large are not apt to jump up and down in glee if they experience tax increases to finance pay raises and growth for the public sector.

d. the unions will react strongly at what they will see as a betrayal if they do not get c. above, especially as it may well entail legislated action rather than collective bargaining. How many million did they spend in the expectation of a payoff and what will they do to a double crossing administration?

It may be an interesting few years.


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## ModlrMike (14 Jun 2014)

Two things are certain:

a. you can expect another barage of 3rd party adertising in the next go round; and

b. this will be the norm until the Conservatives form the govt and change things like they did federally.


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## Fishbone Jones (14 Jun 2014)

Old Sweat said:
			
		

> In the meantime, here are some points to ponder:
> 
> a. the various public sector unions, *except OPSEU,* will expect payback at the bargaining table. Ms Wynne has promised to follow the collective bargaining process when negotiating their next contracts and they rightly will expect just that.
> 
> ...



Sorry OS, OPSEU also expects our fair do. We've been under a wage freeze since our last contact with McSquinty.

I well expect to be on strike come December and we'll be locked out until the liebrals save enough on said strike that they'll be able to give us that raise without cost to the province.


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## Old Sweat (14 Jun 2014)

recceguy said:
			
		

> Sorry OS, OPSEU also expects our fair do. We've been under a wage freeze since our last contact with McSquinty.
> 
> I well expect to be on strike come December and we'll be locked out until the liebrals save enough on said strike that they'll be able to give us that raise without cost to the province.



My point, RG, is that unlike the other unions, OPSEU did not campaign against the PCs and in fact, the union leader warned against accepting the message the Liberals were pushing. OPSEU, therefore, is not operating under any illusions that may be dashed that the negotiations are reward time.


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## Fishbone Jones (14 Jun 2014)

Old Sweat said:
			
		

> My point, RG, is that unlike the other unions, OPSEU did not campaign against the PCs and in fact, the union leader warned against accepting the message the Liberals were pushing. OPSEU, therefore, is not operating under any illusions that may be dashed that the negotiations are reward time.




Seen


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## Edward Campbell (18 Jun 2014)

Crispy Bacon said:
			
		

> Looks like we need to start the 2018 Ontario General Election thread.
> 
> Here's my short list for potential Ontario PC Party leader replacements (in no particular order... yet):
> 
> ...




Here, reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions of the Copyright Act from the _Globe and Mail_, is more speculation about the PCPO leadership:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/globe-politics-insider/early-ontario-pc-leadership-talk-centres-on-deputy-leader-christine-elliott/article19214420/#dashboard/follows/


> After Hudak, who is likely to take over Ontario PCs?
> 
> SUBSCRIBERS ONLY
> 
> ...




I supported Christine Elliott in 2009 and, if she runs again, I will support her again.

In *my opinion* had Elliott won in 2009 she would be premier today because she would have won the 2011 election.

     (The PCPO has been captured by a 'wannabe American' _wing_ that misunderstood Mike Harris and the _common sense revolution_. The people of Ontario didn't like the harsh medicine but, in 1995, they understood that
      they had to swallow it. Mike Harris prepared the ground well, aided (unintentionally) by Bob Rae and Floyd Laughren. By 2002 Ontario and Mike Harris were tired on the _revolution_ but, byt then, the 'wannabe American' _wing_
      had taken over.)

In the recent election it was not, *in my opinion*, the _substance_ of Tim Hudak's policies that bothered Ontarians, it was a real, visceral fear of *how* Mr Hudak would implement those polices that mattered. Ontarians understand that Kathleen Wynne is going to break most of her promises and that she will tax us half to death but they _believe_ that she will moderate the extreme 'tax and spend' wing of her party while they _believed_ that Mr Hudak could not do the same to the 'slash and burn' wing of the PCPO ~ in short Mr Hudak failed the *leadership* test.

The PCPO needs a _moderate_, centrist *leader*, someone who can rebuild the Party and lead it to victory. My money is still on Christine Elliott.


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## The Bread Guy (18 Jun 2014)

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> In the recent election it was not, *in my opinion*, the _substance_ of Tim Hudak's policies that bothered Ontarians, it was a real, visceral fear of *how* Mr Hudak would implement those polices that mattered. Ontarians understand that Kathleen Wynne is going to break most of her promises and that she will tax us half to death but they _believe_ that she will moderate the extreme 'tax and spend' wing of her party while they _believed_ that Mr Hudak could not do the same to the 'slash and burn' wing of the PCPO ~ in short Mr Hudak failed the *leadership* test.


Agreed - in the words of someone smarter than me about these things, as a collective, Ontarians were more afraid of austerity Hudak-style than they were angry over money we'll never see again Wynne-style.


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## The_Falcon (18 Jun 2014)

I'll put this here since the 2014 election is done.  This won't surprise anyone here or OPSEU for that matter, and  I guess you can't really say she is breaking a promise, since she never explicitly promised anything.  She just refused to provide details since it wasn't convenient at the time.  Now that the she won, with massive union support.....well oops sorry folks, 

http://www.cbc.ca/m/touch/canada/toronto/story/1.2679331



> Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne appeared on CBC Radio's Metro Morning on Wednesday, less than a week after leading her Liberals to an unexpected majority win.
> 
> Host Matt Galloway asked the premier about everything from transit funding, to her plans to pare back the province's large deficit, and why her support didn't extend into most rural Ontario ridings.
> 
> ...


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## a_majoor (20 Jun 2014)

This ad will be so true in 2018 (indeed it was already true in the last election). Hopefully someone will have the wit to do the Ontario version for 2018...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WCLmRUFGzGM


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## The Bread Guy (24 Jun 2014)

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> The PCPO needs a _moderate_, centrist *leader*, someone who can rebuild the Party and lead it to victory. *My money is still on Christine Elliott.*


Cha-CHING ....


> Whitby-Oshawa MPP Christine Elliott is set to launch her bid for the leadership of the Progressive Conservative party Wednesday.
> 
> Elliott, the widow of former federal finance minister Jim Flaherty, will make the announcement outside a University of Toronto building in the morning.
> 
> ...


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## The Bread Guy (7 Jun 2017)

Bumping this higher up now that we're 365 days away from the scheduled Ontario General Election.

Just to start things rolling, here's links to the major party info-machines ...

Team Red
Team Blue
Team Orange
Team Green
op:


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## The Bread Guy (3 Aug 2017)

Interesting compare-contrast piece by a former Harper comms dude, shared under the Fair Dealing provisions of the _Copyright Act (R.S.C., 1985, c. C-42)_ ...


> *Caroline Mulroney, the anti-Trudeau, enters the political fray*
> _Andrew MacDougall on Caroline Mulroney’s decision to follow in her father Brian’s footsteps—and what she can learn from the current PM_
> Andrew MacDougall, macleans.ca, August 2, 2017
> 
> ...


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## Retired AF Guy (3 Aug 2017)

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Bumping this higher up now that we're 365 days away from the scheduled Ontario General Election.
> 
> Just to start things rolling, here's links to the major party info-machines ...
> 
> ...



No Team Green??


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## The Bread Guy (3 Aug 2017)

Retired AF Guy said:
			
		

> No Team Green??


Even though they don't have a seat in the Legislature, here you go ...


			
				milnews.ca said:
			
		

> Bumping this higher up now that we're 365 days away from the scheduled Ontario General Election.
> 
> Just to start things rolling, here's links to the major party info-machines ...
> 
> ...


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## Shrek1985 (31 Aug 2017)

The PCs are a dead letter in the coming election.

Unless and until they get a leader to make them more than a second-best liberal party, they don't have a chance in hell. Pat Brown has been an utter failure, yes, but he was preceded by failures as well. The party needs to purify itself, come back to the right, back to the base, grow a pair and start acting like conservatives. High time we got the "progressive" out of the party; that kind of Orwellian double speak was always trash. Of course that goes for the Federal Party too. We don't and we're looking at splitting the party, again.

We are looking at another liberal government and the NDP as official opposition against either a majority or a minority. The deserve this, thanks to the magnificent job of politicking they have been doing on the green energy portfolio, alone.

Even if she does not step down, blind hatred and loss of faith will do for the PCs, but too many still recall Rae Days to let the NDP gain enough to be the government of Ontario. Especially with examples of NDP rule in Alberta and BC to look to. 

My prediction is that Wynne will take the bullet and step down, taking full responsibility for all the failures of her government and someone new will step up who hasn't had a lot of media attention. There will be calls for unity and togetherness and people will buy into the "How much we can achieve, if we just work together!" line and they will win, again.


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## PuckChaser (31 Aug 2017)

Are you kidding? The PC party could run a cardboard Fig11 target and make no policy announcements and still win an election based solely on the history of failure and fiscal mismanagement from the Liberal Party of Ontario. You'll only need to look to the upcoming testimony of Kathleen Wynne at the bribery trial of her former chief of staff to get all the negative press in the world; 6 months before the election.


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## George Wallace (31 Aug 2017)

PuckChaser said:
			
		

> Are you kidding? The PC party could run a cardboard Fig11 target and make no policy announcements and still win an election based solely on the history of failure and fiscal mismanagement from the Liberal Party of Ontario. You'll only need to look to the upcoming testimony of Kathleen Wynne at the bribery trial of her former chief of staff to get all the negative press in the world; 6 months before the election.



Unfortunately you underestimate the diehard Liberals.  Like the Alt-Left and Alt-Right, only their chosen views count and means that even if the Liberals replaced Wynne with a cat, the cat would win.  We witnessed that in several By-elections in the past six or seven months already.


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## Scott (31 Aug 2017)

George Wallace said:
			
		

> Unfortunately you underestimate the diehard Liberals.  Like the Alt-Left and Alt-Right, only their chosen views count and means that even if the Liberals replaced Wynne with a cat, the cat would win.  We witnessed that in several By-elections in the past six or seven months already.



And diehard Conservatives don't suffer the same thing? :


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## FJAG (31 Aug 2017)

PuckChaser said:
			
		

> Are you kidding? The PC party could run a cardboard Fig11 target and make no policy announcements and still win an election based solely on the history of failure and fiscal mismanagement from the Liberal Party of Ontario. You'll only need to look to the upcoming testimony of Kathleen Wynne at the bribery trial of her former chief of staff to get all the negative press in the world; 6 months before the election.



I thought that about the last election. Boy, was I wrong.  :facepalm:

 :cheers:


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## PuckChaser (31 Aug 2017)

I don't think the Liberals were polling in the low teens, with many regional polls showing they may be in danger of not having official party status.

Patrick Brown isn't the best leader, but he's good enough and just needs to run a clean campaign focused solely on Liberal mismanagement and corruption.


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## observor 69 (1 Sep 2017)

So how'd that anyone but Trump campaign work for Hilary.


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## Lumber (1 Sep 2017)

Baden Guy said:
			
		

> So how'd that anyone but Trump campaign work for Hilary.



She lost HARD to the "Anyone But Hilary" campaign.

I know on here I've more or less been a supported of the MSM, and I still am, but I definitely acknowledge how powerful they can be at obscuring the true reality of the political climate, and I discovered this quite surprsingly when I was last in the USA.

In Canada, we are mostly or less limited to progressive, liberal media, and they have a different spin than more conservative sources (obviously). Leading up to the election last year, there was no other message in Canada other than "Trump is chaos and depravity incarnate". 

On the other hand, I was on vacation in the US during the election and the week leading up to it. Despite being in a blue-liberal state, we got the opportunity to see actual Trump campaign commercials, and boy was it eye opening. 

These commercials were actually really well done, and while they didn't make me think any better of Trump, they certainly made me see why the "Anyone but Hilary" campaign was so strong; it was very compelling.


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## Shrek1985 (28 Sep 2017)

PuckChaser said:
			
		

> Are you kidding? The PC party could run a cardboard Fig11 target and make no policy announcements and still win an election based solely on the history of failure and fiscal mismanagement from the Liberal Party of Ontario. You'll only need to look to the upcoming testimony of Kathleen Wynne at the bribery trial of her former chief of staff to get all the negative press in the world; 6 months before the election.



Your assertion is reasonable and logical; too bad Ontario Voters are not.

Just the promise of a $15/hour minimum wage has bought a lot of immovable support.

But can you counter any of my points, besides to say that I am wrong?


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## The Bread Guy (29 Sep 2017)

PuckChaser said:
			
		

> Are you kidding? The PC party could run a cardboard Fig11 target and make no policy announcements and still win an election based solely on the history of failure and fiscal mismanagement from the Liberal Party of Ontario.


A few folks said words to that effect last time, but it didn't work out that way.

I'd love to hear from anyone closer to the Ontario party on this:  CBC/MSM hype notwithstanding, are things _*really*_ this bad between Brown & the party/party members?
_*Is Ontario PC Leader Patrick Brown truly in 'a war' with his own party?*_ -- Disgruntled conservatives unhappy with Brown's leadership are worried it could cost them election ..."


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## PuckChaser (29 Sep 2017)

Tim Hudak was a victim of the MSM and big public sector unions distorting his plan to reduce the massive amount of PS jobs by attrition. You can't fight back when un-checked union spending and MSM bias is telling everyone he's going to just fire 100,000 people the day he takes office. 

Wynne is polling at 18%. Brown needs to run a leader's race with no huge policy announcements and continually hammer the Liberals mismanagement of hydro, Ornge, bribery scandal, gas plants to just name a few to win. Polling suggests Wynne is even in danger of losing safe Toronto laurentian elite ridings. You'll start seeing rats leaving the sinking ship of the Ontario Liberal party in the next 6 months as MPPs decide they're not going to run for re-election to save the ego drop of losing handily. So they'll have lots of rookie candidates, a massive history of misspent public dollars, and a despised leader in Wynne. Its like a perfect storm of election failure in the making for the Liberals.


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## The Bread Guy (29 Sep 2017)

PuckChaser said:
			
		

> Tim Hudak was a victim of the MSM and big public sector unions distorting his plan to reduce the massive amount of PS jobs by attrition ...


So you're guessing "the history of failure and fiscal mismanagement" is going to have more of an effect against the Liberals than this did?  _*For now*_ -- and it's still a loooong time before ballots are cast in June -- Wynne is still the one I'd bet my loonie on.



			
				PuckChaser said:
			
		

> Wynne is polling at 18%. Brown needs to run a leader's race with no huge policy announcements and continually hammer the Liberals mismanagement of hydro, Ornge, bribery scandal, gas plants to just name a few to win.


We'll see ...


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## CountDC (29 Sep 2017)

Left Ontario in 2012 thinking it couldn't get any worse, in 2016 I came back and realized I was wrong.

Brown needs am image expert to help him out.  I see him on the TV and go into defence mode.  There is just something about him that makes me not trust him at all.  In fact if I was forced to vote for one of them Wynne would get it even though I can't stand her.  At least I already know what I am getting with her while he just plane scares me.  She is the bully that picks on you, he comes across as the "friend" that is going to help you and then stabs you in the back.


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## The Bread Guy (29 Sep 2017)

CountDC said:
			
		

> ... There is just something about him that makes me not trust him at all...


Never met the man in person, but I get more of a "lack of charisma" vibe than a "can't trust him" one.


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## Shrek1985 (2 Oct 2017)

I'll be voting for Brown, but I hate him and I hate what he's done to the party. As a CPC member, I loath what he's doing. At the prov level, it's basically not a conservative party anymore; it's the liberals with as few scruples and no track record.

Better than the NDP? Certainly. But not much different from the Liberals in policy or outlook anymore. Just *maybe* better.

if they get in, I see them failing hard and setting us up for another 20 years of Liberal rule.


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## Edward Campbell (3 Oct 2017)

Shrek1985 said:
			
		

> I'll be voting for Brown, but I hate him and I hate what he's done to the party. As a CPC member, I loath what he's doing. At the prov level, it's basically not a conservative party anymore; it's the liberals with as few scruples and no track record.
> 
> Better than the NDP? Certainly. But *not much different from the Liberals in policy or outlook* anymore. Just *maybe* better.
> 
> if they get in, I see them failing hard and setting us up for another 20 years of Liberal rule.




And that is, basically, what Ontarians have said they wanted, election after election after election, ever since Bill Davis in the 1970s ~ when he swung Ontario, fairly sharply away from Leslie Frost and John Robarts and aligned the province with Pierre Trudeau's big spending, culture of entitlement vision. Mike Harris was, of course, the exception, called in to prove the rule, after Peterson/Rae took things too far. I suspect Patrick Brown will try to steer a moderate course but will be forced to tackle spending and will be unpopular for it.


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## Shrek1985 (4 Oct 2017)

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> And that is, basically, what Ontarians have said they wanted, election after election after election, ever since Bill Davis in the 1970s ~ when he swung Ontario, fairly sharply away from Leslie Frost and John Robarts and aligned the province with Pierre Trudeau's big spending, culture of entitlement vision. Mike Harris was, of course, the exception, called in to prove the rule, after Peterson/Rae took things too far. I suspect Patrick Brown will try to steer a moderate course but will be forced to tackle spending and will be unpopular for it.



It is not what Ontarians want, it is maybe a suicide pact the rest of us have tacitly agreed to with Toronto and that's the best I can say about it.

I don't believe there is one answer to politics; that the Liberals are on a mission from the UN to make us not just post-nation, but post-political, that we have a Natural-Ruling Party.

But, if you really believe that, E.R. Campbell; that our country is just on the way to the same sad state of affairs most places in Europe have where elections are arguments between competing socialists, then we're done. We've just handed in another proof to the theory that Democracy only lasts so long as people don't realize that they can just vote themselves money for nothing.

What I see and hear when I talk to people is that many are tired of this same old nonsense and want real, revolutionary change, but we a) lack a candidate and party to vote for and b) it doesn't matter what most of the province/nation wants; Toronto picks our leaders and the rest of us can go hang.

Mark my words; Brown will lose and lose badly; the liberals will get another majority or minority and the NDP will be the opposition; they deserve that as they have been doing a better job at it than the CPC for years now. The CPC at all levels needs to be gutted if it is to survive. If not it will be replaced. CPC members especially are disgusted with Brown and Scheer.


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## mariomike (4 Oct 2017)

Shrek1985 said:
			
		

> It is not what Ontarians want, it is maybe a suicide pact the rest of us have tacitly agreed to with Toronto and that's the best I can say about it.
> 
> Toronto picks our leaders and the rest of us can go hang.



Maybe let Toronto go its own way? ( Province of Toronto? Where's the door.   )

Metro Toronto Chairman Godfrey brought it up back in the 1970's in front of a Royal Commission.

"Political observers say the change is unlikely to happen, given it would require the approval of Parliament and seven of the provinces, with at least 50 per cent of the population."
Toronto Star March 16, 2010

#TORexit


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## ModlrMike (4 Oct 2017)

E.R. Campbell said:
			
		

> I suspect Patrick Brown will try to steer a moderate course but will be forced to tackle spending and will be unpopular for it.



Case in point: Manitoba. Pallister is getting beaten up pretty hard at having to manage 17 years of NDP excess.


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## Rifleman62 (4 Oct 2017)

> Case in point: Manitoba. Pallister is getting beaten up pretty hard at having to manage 17 years of NDP excess.



That's what happens when you are a Have Not Province and get equalization payments to spend and spend.

http://nationalpost.com/news/politics/have-not-provinces-getting-too-much-equalization-money-brad-wall-says


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## Shrek1985 (10 Oct 2017)

ModlrMike said:
			
		

> Case in point: Manitoba. Pallister is getting beaten up pretty hard at having to manage 17 years of NDP excess.



Well that's another problem and one only recently illuminated to me;

Conservative government as a chance to "Service the engine" run down by leftists.


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## McG (10 Oct 2017)

mariomike said:
			
		

> Maybe let Toronto go its own way? ( Province of Toronto? Where's the door.   )


That idea has its own thread (well, inclusive of other city-provinces such as Vancouver, Montreal, and a National Capital District).

https://army.ca/forums/threads/124115.0.html


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