# Kurdistan Referendum/Other Developments (split fm Op IMPACT)



## The Bread Guy (13 Sep 2017)

Meanwhile, among our allies on both sides ...

_*“Iraqi Parliament rejects Kurdistan independence referendum”*_ (NRT – Kurdish media)
_*“U.S. says Kurdistan will not get int’l support for independence unless it becomes democracy”*_ (ekurd.net – Kurdish media)
_*“Barzani vows to press on with Kurdish referendum, defying Iraq parliament” *_ (Reuters)
_*“Kurdish official: Kurdistan Parliament will respond to Iraq’s anti-independence vote on Thursday”*_ (kurdistan24.net)
_*“Iraqi PM calls for urgent talks with Kurdish leadership”*_ (NRT)
_*“Arab League Chief calls for dialogue ahead of Kurdish referendum”*_ (NRT)
op:


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## The Bread Guy (14 Sep 2017)

More Kurdish referendum friction ...

_*"Iraq's Kirkuk province to vote in Kurdish independence referendum"*_ (Reuters, 29 Aug 2017)
_*"Iraqi parliament votes to remove Kirkuk governor from office"*_ (Reuters, 14 Sept 2017)


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## Lumber (14 Sep 2017)

milnews.ca said:
			
		

> More Kurdish referendum friction ...
> 
> _*"Iraq's Kirkuk province to vote in Kurdish independence referendum"*_ (Reuters, 29 Aug 2017)
> _*"Iraqi parliament votes to remove Kirkuk governor from office"*_ (Reuters, 14 Sept 2017)



Alright then, here comes Iraqi Civil War/Insurgency round 17.


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## Colin Parkinson (14 Sep 2017)

The Kurds accepted Iraq sovereignty on bequest of the US, once already, look what happened, the Iraq state folded when attacked by a few thousand terrorists and left the Kurds to their own devices. Kurdish independence is going happen either now or later. Both will have a cost, but for now the State of Iraq and Syria are weak and the timing is good. Turkey is also in throes as well.


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## The Bread Guy (14 Sep 2017)

Colin P said:
			
		

> ... Turkey is also in throes as well.


They've been pretty clear, indeed ...

_*"Iraqi Kurdish referendum 'historic mistake': Turkey"*_
_*"Iraqi Kurdish independence referendum will fuel instability, Turkey says"*_ (Aug 2017)
_*"Iraqi Kurdistan is gripped by excitement ahead of the Sept. 25 independence referendum. The sense of hopeful anticipation, however, is not limited to Iraqi Kurds.* Their cousins in neighboring Turkey — reeling from Ankara’s heaviest crackdown in years — are watching the process with an equal excitement, hoping that a vote for independence will boost the standing of Kurds across the region ..."_


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## The Bread Guy (15 Sep 2017)

The latest...

_*"Kurdish parliament votes to move ahead with referendum"*_ (AP)
_*"Iraq's Kurdish parliament backs Sept 25 independence referendum"*_ (Reuters)
_*"... It seems that Canada once fulfils the mission statement of operation IMPACT we could be leaving the KRG on the precipice of a new conflict, rather than as a stable, secure region. The Kurds are one of the most pro-Western groups in the area, and a stable KRG would no doubt be invaluable to Canada’s interests in the region. Hopefully cooler heads will prevail, and the involved parties will find a diplomatic solution to this looming crisis."*_ (NATO Association of Canada)


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## MilEME09 (15 Sep 2017)

Well we didn't make the situation better by having CANSOFCOM train them, and then the west sending them weapons. Granted they have been the best force against the Islamic state, however if this leads to a Kurdistan vs Iraq civil war, the Kurds from a training point of view have the upper hand. Likely to inflict multiple military defeats in the opening weeks and months of any war.


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## The Bread Guy (17 Sep 2017)

The latest ...

_*"Iraqi PM Warns Of Military Intervention If Kurdish Referendum Turns Violent"*_ (Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, US-funded media)
_*"Iraq Leader Says He Will Use Force if Kurdish Referendum Turns Violent"*_ (AP via _New York Times_)
_*"Iraq army 'to intervene' if Kurds' referendum escalates* -- Describing the vote as illegal and unconstitutional, Iraq's prime minister says he is prepared to use military force ..."_ (Al Jazeera English)
*"Barzani: We won’t accept from any country to say referendum ‘illegitimate’ "* (NRT, Kurdish media)
*"Kurdish leadership to discuss US-backed ‘alternative’ to referendum Sunday"* (Rudaw, Kurdish media)
*"Saudi Arabia offers mediation for resolving Erbil-Baghdad disputes"* (Rudaw)
_*"Turkey's Erdogan to discuss northern Iraq vote with Iraqi PM"*_ (Reuters)


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## Eye In The Sky (17 Sep 2017)

MilEME09 said:
			
		

> Well we didn't make the situation better by having CANSOFCOM train them, and then the west sending them weapons. Granted they have been the best force against the Islamic state, however if this leads to a Kurdistan vs Iraq civil war, the Kurds from a training point of view have the upper hand. Likely to inflict multiple military defeats in the opening weeks and months of any war.



You're not considering the other countries involved who have been training the ISFs?  US, Australia etc?


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## Ostrozac (17 Sep 2017)

Eye In The Sky said:
			
		

> You're not considering the other countries involved who have been training the ISFs?  US, Australia etc?



And don't forget about Iran, who have also been actively training, mentoring and equipping Iraqi forces -- forces that are proving quite effective on the battlefield. Quite how we got to the point where Iranian mentored forces are operating in close cooperation with US mentored forces is itself a strange story -- enemy of my enemy and all that. But just like the WWII alliance between the US/UK and the USSR, it's dependent on the existence of that common enemy. So once ISIS is defeated, so is any reason for Iran and the US to carry on tolerating each other inside Iraq, and if Kurdistan tries to gain their independence, I would expect those Iranian forces to act in support of the Baghdad government in trying to prevent that independence. Iran does not particularly want a pro-US independent Kurdistan on their borders. It would be viewed as a US proxy, and a threat.

But hey, I've been wrong before. I wouldn't put money on that prediction. The situation in the Middle East is always complicated, but this is the worst that I can remember.


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## The Bread Guy (18 Sep 2017)

Latest referendum news ...

_*"Iraq top court rules to suspend Kurdish referendum"*_ (Al Jazeera English)
_*"Turkish tanks drill on Iraqi border week before Kurdish vote"*_ (Reuters)
_*"Britain’s Defence Secretary, Michael Fallon said he would try to persuade Iraqi Kurdish leader Massud Barzani at a meeting later Monday to call off a controversial September 25 independence referendum ..."*__ (channelstv.com)
[*]*"All military agreements end with KRG in case of split: Iran's Shamkhani"* (AhlulBayt News Agency Shia News)_


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## Colin Parkinson (18 Sep 2017)

The Kurds enemies are all busy and strained by the war, there will not be a better time to declare independence, Iraq failed them when ISIS overran their armies. On the plus side the Kurds need trade and can make deals if the West bankrolls them for the first years. Build good roads and pipeline facilities and get international partners to work out water rights and land title issues. The US can pressure Turkey to allow trade and flyover routes, while at the same time pressure Kurdistan not to support any cross border attacks. That I see is the main card the Kurds can play, trade and cessation of attacks in Turkey.


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## Bird_Gunner45 (18 Sep 2017)

Colin P said:
			
		

> The US can pressure Turkey to allow trade and flyover routes, while at the same time pressure Kurdistan not to support any cross border attacks. That I see is the main card the Kurds can play, trade and cessation of attacks in Turkey.



This may be a dangerous proposition though and push Turkey out of NATO. The Kurdish problem is a strategic one for the Turks and likely one that they are willing to stand up over. How much pressure the US can put on Turkey (who wouldn't allow US troops into Turkey for the invasion in 2003) is debatable, particularly if pushing means moving Turkey closer to Russia and further away from NATO and Israel.


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## The Bread Guy (18 Sep 2017)

Colin P said:
			
		

> ... the Kurds need trade and can make deals if the West bankrolls them for the first years ...


They are working the oil fields as a potential revenue source, although, 1) assuming they can hang on to them post-independence, and 2) with a few "gotta wonder" players to keep an eye on (like Russia).

Meanwhile, IRQ's pres thinks the Kurdish referendum is critical enough to cancel a visit to the U.S.


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## The Bread Guy (19 Sep 2017)

Some more of the latest ...

_*“British defense secretary calls for delay of Kurdish referendum – KRP”*_
_*“Saudi minister calls on Barzani to accept international mediations”*_
_*“Referendum can be postponed only with guarantees on independence: Barzani”*_
_*“PM Barzani: We Will Continue to Cooperate with Baghdad in War on Terrorism”*_
_*“Kurdistan referendum leaves Iraq’s Turkmens in quandary” *_ - _*“Curfew in Kirkuk as Turkmen, Kurd engage in clashes”*_
_*“In response to the Kurdish independence referendum scheduled for September 25 and the Syrian Kurds’ elections of bodies running local communities on September 22, Turkey sent on Monday field messages to both parties by deploying its forces at the border of the two countries.* Sources said that Ankara is deploying its forces and backing the Free Syrian Army to control Idlib and drive out Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham militants, which include factions similar to Fatah al-Sham, as a means to prevent the establishment of a “Kurdish corridor” from Syria’s Afreen to the Mediterranean. Meanwhile, western diplomatic sources told Asharq Al-Awsat on Monday that Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu met with Commander of the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) Sipan Hamo at the Russian Hmeimim air base in Syria on September 12 to discuss ways of fighting ISIS terrorists …”_


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## Colin Parkinson (19 Sep 2017)

Bird_Gunner45 said:
			
		

> This may be a dangerous proposition though and push Turkey out of NATO. The Kurdish problem is a strategic one for the Turks and likely one that they are willing to stand up over. How much pressure the US can put on Turkey (who wouldn't allow US troops into Turkey for the invasion in 2003) is debatable, particularly if pushing means moving Turkey closer to Russia and further away from NATO and Israel.



Turkey is basically out of NATO already and the given up on the EU so not a big step, the big stick would be trade and potential sanctions. I suspect the cream of the Turkish officer corp has been purged and the army will never again be allowed to be so efficient. Russia might see Kurdistan as a excellent counterpoint to Turkey as well.


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## The Bread Guy (19 Sep 2017)

More of the latest ...

_*"Kurdish FM: Iraq’s judiciary doesn’t function, ruling won’t affect Region"*_ (Rudaw, Kurdish media)
_*"Turkey ‘will not allow fait accompli’ in Iraq’s north"*_ (Hurriyet Daily News, Turkish media)


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## The Bread Guy (20 Sep 2017)

Some quick morning (in Eastern time) highlights from Kurdish media ...

_*"Main offensive to defeat ISIS in Hawija begins after referendum*: Peshmerga**"*_
[*]_*"New conflict over Kirkuk could follow ISIS removal from Hawija"*_
[*]_*"Kirkuk shaping up as flashpoint ahead of Kurdistan independence vote"*_
[*]_*"Barzani gives Baghdad ultimatum: Provide alternative in 3 days or vote proceeds"*_
[*]_*"Turkey***, France, UN working on new alternative to referendum: Minister"*_
[*]_*"Turkey is concerned that in "one night" all of the gains made by the Kurdistan Region since the overthrow of the Baathist regime in 2003 could be lost, if the independence referendum is held and could lead to an Iraqi "civil war," a senior Turkish presidential advisor revealed ..."*_
[*]_*"Erdogan says Kurdish independence vote risks regional crisis"*_

***[size=8pt] - Set for next Monday, 25 Sept 2017.
**** - If you're just tuning in, these are the guys Canada's SOF troops are helping out on the Kurdish side.
***** - Wonder how close Turkey's ideas are to France's & the U.N.'s, given how Turkey doesn't seem to want the Kurds around?


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## The Bread Guy (20 Sep 2017)

A few more hits ...

_*"Iraq demands suspension of Kurdistan independence vote"*_ (Reuters)
_*"Iraqi PM: Only Israel supports Kurdistan Referendum"*_ (Iraqi News)
_*"Russia becomes Iraq Kurds' top funder, quiet about independence vote"*_ (Reuters)
_*"Erbil referendum could lead to Ankara's military intervention, media says"*_ (Middle East North Africa Financial Network)


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## The Bread Guy (20 Sep 2017)

And the latest ...

_*"The United States warned Wednesday it may not be able to help Iraq's Kurds negotiate a better deal with the Iraqi government if they go ahead with an independence vote ..."*_ (AFP)
_*"US urges KRG to cancel independence referendum, says it will destabilize Iraq, harm fight against Daesh"*_ (Daily Sabah, TUR media)
Suuuuuuuuuuuuure, it won't ... _*"Ankara won't regard Kurdistan referendum reason for war: former FM"*_ (Kurdistan24)
_*"KRG referendum will ignite a war: Turkey DefMin"*_ (YeniSafak, TUR media)
_*"Amidst Universal Opposition to KRG Referendum, Israel Stands by Kurds"*_ (globalresearch.ca, "alternative" news site***)
_*"Russia’s S-400s Will Protect Turkey From a “Kurdish Air Force” "*_ (globalresearch.ca)
_*"Trouble Is Brewing In Kurdistan"*_ (oilprice.com)
_*"Iraq's Kurds Seek Independence: What Impact for Oil Markets?"*_ (Bloomberg)
*** - Big on claiming terrorist attacks in places like Manchester, Paris & Brussels were false flags (usual Wikipedia caveats apply) to trigger government intervention.


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## McG (20 Sep 2017)

I'm thinking that the Kurdish independence referendum is something bigger and distinct from Canada's Op IMPACT - especially considering recent press releases indicating that the part of the mission that was working with the Kurds may already have shifted to working with other elements of Iraqi security forces.  I think maybe this thread has become confused with the broader Middle East thread here: https://army.ca/forums/threads/113578.0.html


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## The Bread Guy (21 Sep 2017)

MCG said:
			
		

> I'm thinking that the Kurdish independence referendum is something bigger and distinct from Canada's Op IMPACT - especially considering recent press releases indicating that the part of the mission that was working with the Kurds may already have shifted to working with other elements of Iraqi security forces.  I think maybe this thread has become confused with the broader Middle East thread here: https://army.ca/forums/threads/113578.0.html


Makes sense.  I think since CAF troops are dealing with Kurds specifically, as opposed with just the broader mid-east, I'll pull the Kurdish content and create a new thread.

Thanks!
*Milnet.ca Staff*


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## Colin Parkinson (21 Sep 2017)

While the Syria/Iraqi/Hezbollah made great gains against ISIS, they did it with a lot of help from Russia and the US, particularly in intelligence and CAS. With a conflict between those states and Kurdistan, it's likely they will not have that support. Kurdistan is not a threat to Russia, in fact it may be a useful tool or assets for them at some point. The Syrian Kurds are willing to work with Assad's Regime and at the very least not be a threat to it. That will be all that Russia wants from them and Kurdistan. Russia may worry about Iran having to many conflicting aims with them and Kurdistan would keep them occupied and busy nearer home. Russia may turn on and off support for Kurdistan as required to manipulate Turkey to achieve Russian goals.

The US while not keen on independence at this time will eventually accept it and will likely defend it in the long run. Kurdistan biggest weakness is being landlocked and airlocked. Forcing Iraq and Turkey to allow overflights might be the biggest asset that the US can bring to the table outside of direct military aid. Maintaining aid and support after independence also allows the US to pressure the Kurds into limiting adventures outside their borders and not publicly supporting other Kurdish independence for awhile. 

Israel will like up covert aid to Kurdistan, mostly training and intelligence. The UN is going to be opposed as such an independence movement is to much of a threat to many countries that are oppressing their own minorities or have long simmering independence movements.


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## Cdn Blackshirt (21 Sep 2017)

Although strongly in favour of eventual Kurdish independence, I think the current timing is VERY dangerous for them and I'm hopeful the current move is a negotiating tactic to get maximum concessions from the government in Baghdad, as well as US & EU donor countries.

I think in a few years, once the Kurdish region is home to more US/EU bases, they have more heavier weapons of their own, and have investments from some major energy companies (and after Erdogan/Turkey are officially out of NATO), that's when they make they should make their move.


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## The Bread Guy (23 Sep 2017)

Some of the latest ...

*"Baghdad coordinates with Peshmerga on Hawija offensive: Source"* (iraqnews.com)
*"First electronic vote for independence referendum is cast"* (Kurdistan24, Kurdish media)
*"Iraqi and the United Nations officials have met in New York and Baghdad, following the beginning of e-voting for the Kurdistan Region's independence referendum.*_ On Friday, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi met with UN Special Representative to the Secretary-General for Iraq Jan Kubis in Baghdad, while Foreign Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari met with UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. A statement from Abadi's office said Kubis explained the "international consensus was clear" when the UN Security Council expressed its opposition to Kurdistan's referendum referring to its Friday statement calling it "potentially destabilizing impact." ..."_ (Rudaw, Kurdish media)
*"Turkey Issues Final Call to Iraqi Kurds to Cancel Independence Vote"* (Voice of America, U.S.-gov't-funded media)
*"Russia Supports Iraq's Territorial Integrity: Lavrov"* (_U.S. News & World Report_)
*"Barzani: We Won’t Accept Open Agenda As Alternative to Referendum"* (Bas News, Kurdish media)


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## The Bread Guy (23 Sep 2017)

Odd bedfellows @ Ottawa Kurdish rally?


> Two Members of the Canadian Parliament on Thursday extended their support for the Kurdistan Region’s “democratic” process ahead of the historic independence referendum on Sep. 25.
> 
> The MPs spoke to Kurdistan 24 on the sidelines of a pro-independence rally in Ottawa, Canada, organized by The Greater Toronto Kurdish House and the Kurdish-Canadian Association of Ottawa.
> 
> ...


*A little bit more @ link*


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## The Bread Guy (25 Sep 2017)

Some of the latest ...

_*"Erdoğan threatens to cut off oil flow from Iraq’s Kurdish area over referendum"*_
_*"Kurdish referendum: Iran closes border with Iraqi Kurdistan over independence vote fears"*_
_*"Iranian Guard drills near Iraq ahead of Kurdish referendum"*_
_*"Iraqi MP: parliament mulls arrests of Kurdistan secession advocates"*_
_*"Iraq closes borders with KRG in response to referendum"*_
_*"Kirkuk orders automobile curfew, warns against violence during referendum"*_
More of the latest via Google News and Bing News.


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## The Bread Guy (26 Sep 2017)

The latest ...

_*"Justin Trudeau stays mum on Iraq referendum, citing Quebec as a lesson"*_ (The Canadian Press via globalnews.ca)
_*"Polls close on landmark Iraqi Kurd independence vote as Turkey threatens military intervention"*_ (Associated Press via _Toronto Star_)
_*“Turnout in Kurdistan referendum 72.16 percent: Commission”*_ (Kurdistan 24, Kurdish media)
_*"Big 'yes' vote expected for Iraqi Kurd independence"*_ (Agence France-Presse)
_*"Iraq refuses to discuss Kurdish independence after referendum"*_ (Xinhua)
_*"Iraqi Kurds must give up on independence or go hungry - Erdogan"*_ (BBC)
_*“Turkey halts Rudaw broadcast on Turksat satellites”*_ (Rudaw, Kurdish media)
_*"Turkey threatens retaliation after Iraqi Kurdish independence vote"*_ (Reuters)


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## The Bread Guy (26 Sep 2017)

Stand by for the "Qatar Option Cold Shoulder"?


> *Iraq gives Kurdistan till Friday to hand over control of airports to avoid embargo*
> Reuters, September 26, 2017 / 12:28 PM
> 
> The Iraqi government gave the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) until Friday 3:00 p.m (1200 GMT) to hand over control of its airports in order to avoid an international air embargo, Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi said, according to state TV.
> ...


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## CBH99 (26 Sep 2017)

That's really going to hurt the economic prospects of Kurdistan, being that there are just _sooooooooooooo_ many people and flights desperate to land there...   :


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## Cdn Blackshirt (26 Sep 2017)

CBH99 said:
			
		

> That's really going to hurt the economic prospects of Kurdistan, being that there are just _sooooooooooooo_ many people and flights desperate to land there...   :



I think the Iraqis are trying to embargo weapons deliveries.....


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## Colin Parkinson (26 Sep 2017)

The referendum is to proceed with negotiations on independence, now that they have a yes vote, the grabbing of cards to bring to the table begins.


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## Loachman (26 Sep 2017)

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/451758/donald-trump-kurdistan-independence-isis?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=NR%20Daily%20Monday%20through%20Friday%202017-09-26&utm_term=NR5PM%20Actives

Trump Should Buck the Consensus on the Kurds 

by Jonathan S. Tobin September 26, 2017 11:30 AM

The administration shouldn’t be bullied into betraying them.

We all know President Donald Trump isn’t a fan of the foreign-policy establishment, either in Washington or at the United Nations. To the contrary, he delights in confounding the experts and defying the international consensus on a variety of issues. Yet on one key matter, Trump seems to be adhering to the conventional wisdom. When it comes to independence for Kurdistan, Trump has been listening to the so-called wise men both inside and outside the government and has been clear that his administration opposes the referendum held there yesterday.

But in this case he should buck the consensus. He ought to signal that the United States will not go along with efforts to suppress the Kurds’ bid for freedom. Doing so would be not only the right thing to do for America’s sole reliable ally in the fight against ISIS, but also good strategy. Giving the Kurds a leg up toward their goal would provide Trump with something he has been looking for: leverage against Iran.

Trump put the world on notice last week, in his speech to the General Assembly of the United Nations, that he was not prepared to follow the lead of America’s European allies on Iran. He made a strong case that the nuclear deal his predecessor struck with Tehran had been ineffective in achieving its goal of ending the threat of an Iranian weapon. Just as important, he pointed out that the pact had both enriched and emboldened Iran.

There is good reason to believe that the Iranians are already pushing the envelope on compliance with the agreement, which legitimized their nuclear program - and whose provisions will start to sunset within a decade, essentially allowing Iran to build a weapon with international approval. The deal also has encouraged Iran’s leaders to believe that the country’s illegal missile tests, continued status as the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism (a designation that Obama’s State Department reaffirmed after the deal went into effect), and successful military adventure in Syria will go unchallenged by the West. With the help of the Russians, the Iranians have enabled the barbarous Assad regime to prevail in Syria’s civil war. That has given them what is, in effect, a land bridge to the Mediterranean stretching from an Iraq run by their Shiite allies to Lebanon, where their Hezbollah auxiliaries dominate.

Trump has struggled in vain to balance his desire to finish the campaign against ISIS in Syria and Iraq with his recognition of the danger that a triumphant Iran poses to the West and to Sunni Arab states eager to cooperate with the U.S. This question has exposed a terrible contradiction in his foreign policy: His desire to restrain Iran has collided with his hopes for better relations with Russia, which acts as Tehran’s ally in Syria.

Unfortunately, his urge to finish off ISIS has blinded him to the rights of the group that has done more than any other in the region to carry on that fight: the Kurds. While the Assad-Iran-Russia coalition in Syria has paid lip service to the war on ISIS, it has largely ignored the Islamic State in practice, concentrating instead on eliminating Assad’s other domestic foes. The Kurdish Peshmerga, the military force raised by Iraqi Kurdistan, has been the only reliable land force in the campaign against ISIS. Without the Kurds, U.S. efforts to rout ISIS would have continued to fail. And yet the same Western governments that have cheered the Kurds’ efforts are unprepared to countenance their desire for a state of their own.

Western indifference is a product of more than ingratitude. Though the U.S. regarded the Kurds as a friendly force throughout the war in Iraq, America was also heavily invested in maintaining the country’s unity, even if that concept was more of a legal fiction than a reality. Just as important, giving statehood to Iraq’s Kurds scares both Turkey and Iran, who both have substantial restive Kurdish minorities that have been subject to discrimination and repression.

Seen from that perspective, giving the Kurds their due might constitute not only a distraction from the war on ISIS but also a threat to Turkey, Iran, and the survival of the fragile Iraqi government in Baghdad.

But as Trump well understands, the boat sailed on Iraqi unity - and on any attempt to create a democratic federal system in Iraq - long ago. The Kurds know that if their rights are put on hold until after they’ve finished the dirty work of fighting ISIS, the world won’t lift a finger to ensure that any promises made to them will be kept. That’s why, in spite of condemnations from those neighboring governments and even discouragement from the United Nations - which is so solicitous about achieving statehood for Palestinians who support rather than fight terrorism - the Kurds have gone ahead and held their referendum.

Rather than providing support for the worrisome threats coming from the Turks, the Iranians, and the government in Baghdad, the U.S. ought to be signaling that this time, unlike numerous times in the past, the Kurds won’t be left to their fate. Supporting the Kurds, who have bled and died in a battle against terror the U.S. wanted fought but was too squeamish and war-weary to commit major land forces of its own to, is the right thing to do. And contrary to all of those wise men whispering in Trump’s ear that he can’t do anything to offend the Turks and Iranians, standing up for the Kurds is also in America’s strategic interest.

Though an independent Kurdistan in what is now northern Iraq won’t block Iran’s land bridge to Hezbollah, the presence of a strong armed force on Iran’s flank would provide the U.S. with the sort of strategic leverage against Iran for which Trump has been looking. Moreover, given the strength of the Peshmerga, the Kurds can defend themselves so long as the U.S. is prepared to honor its word to arm them.

Though the new state will fall short of a Jeffersonian democracy, it will still be freer than its neighbors. Like democratic Israel elsewhere in the region, Kurdistan will act as a bridgehead for the West in an area where dangerous forces have seized the initiative since Obama’s retreat from his “red line” in Syria and his nuclear deal with Iran.

As for the increasingly dictatorial state in Turkey, it’s time for Trump to send the Erdogan regime a message that he cannot dictate U.S. policy, and that the U.S. will not legitimize his ill treatment of Turkish Kurds by denying freedom to their coethnics in northern Iraq.

Backing the Kurds is exactly the sort of outside-the-box thinking that Trump promised when he was elected president. If he abandons the Kurds, just at the moment when they are most entitled to Western support, it won’t merely be another in a long history of betrayals of that people. It will be a sign that Trump lacks the insight and the courage to ignore his establishment advisers, and that his talk about rolling back Obama’s dangerous nuclear blunder with Iran is just posturing. That would be a greater danger to both his administration and U.S. interests than the displeasure of Erdogan or the ayatollahs could ever be.

Jonathan S. Tobin is opinion editor of JNS.org and a contributor to National Review Online.


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## The Bread Guy (27 Sep 2017)

Cdn Blackshirt said:
			
		

> I think the Iraqis are trying to embargo weapons deliveries.....


... among other things:  here's a story about a bit more than just airport seizures:  _*"Iraqi PM gives Kurdistan three days to hand over oil revenue, airports, border-crossings"*_

Meanwhile ...

Commentary:  _*"Terry Glavin: Canada quietly opposes Kurd independence, notwithstanding history of oppression"*_ - _*"Canada armed and trained the Kurds. To compare their independence vote to Quebec is a ploy to wash Canada’s hands of a mess it helped create ..."*_*
_*"92% of Kurds vote in favour of independence from Iraq"*_
_*"Kurds Back Independence by 92% in Referendum; Iraq May Send Troops"*_
_*"Iraq sends delegation to Iran 'to coordinate military efforts'"*_
_*"Ankara ready to support Baghdad in ensuring Iraq's integrity"*_
May not be safe much longer? _*"Turkey issues travel warning for KRG's Irbil, Dohuk and Sulaymaniyah provinces"*_
* - It's PMJT's problem to solve now, but it was PMSH who set up the "let's support both sides - who might end up fighting each other - as a way to support folks fighting ISIL on the ground" arrangement.


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## The Bread Guy (30 Sep 2017)

And the flight ban begins ...

_*"Baghdad imposes international flight ban on Iraqi Kurdistan after referendum"*_
_*"Iraq halts international flights to Kurdistan Region"*_
_*"Kurdistan Blockade: Flight ban comes into force"*_ (Kurdish media)


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## The Bread Guy (2 Oct 2017)

An update ...

_*"Iraq’s Kurdish region forms new council to run ties with Baghdad"*_
_*"US does not recognize Kurdistan referendum, Rex Tillerson says"*_
_*"Pakistan says Iraq’s Kurdistan referendum ‘lacks legitimacy’ "*_
_*"Iraq: No talks until Kurds cancel referendum result"*_
_*"Iran deploys tanks at border with Iraq's Kurdish region: Kurdish official"*_
_*"Iraq denies plans for Abadi, Kurdistan leader meeting in Paris"*_


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## Colin Parkinson (2 Oct 2017)

Even if Iraq manages to subdue the Kurds for now, then they have a new insurrection on their hands and eventually the Sunni tribes will regroup and fight as well.


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## McG (16 Oct 2017)

Looks like ground combat is beginning between the two sides.

Kirkuk: Iraqi forces advance on Kurdish-held sites
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-41631697


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## MilEME09 (16 Oct 2017)

We got our selves a hot war, fighting for control of Kirkuk has apparently begun, Kurdish CTG are arriving as reinforcements. This was posted a couple minutes ago on FB, I know not the best source


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## brihard (16 Oct 2017)

Jesus, what a mess. I hope CANSOF is popping smoke RTFN. It does not serve our national interest to have any of our men and women die in this mess.


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## Jarnhamar (16 Oct 2017)

MCG said:
			
		

> Looks like ground combat is beginning between the two sides.
> 
> Kirkuk: Iraqi forces advance on Kurdish-held sites
> http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-41631697



Shouldn't they be more concerned with ISIS? Or am I missing something.


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## Colin Parkinson (16 Oct 2017)

Never underestimate an Arab's ability to find ways to start infighting. I suspect that Kurdish advances against ISIS outside of their claimed territory will stop right now and troops will be pulled back to defend the claimed areas, this will take the pressure off of ISIS and likely they will regroup, possibly only focusing on Syrian forces in order to allow Iraqi and Kurdish forces to fully engage each other.


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## Altair (17 Oct 2017)

Is it just me or did the Peshmerga get pushed aside by the Iraqi army rather easily?

Disparity in equipment?


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## Cdn Blackshirt (17 Oct 2017)

Altair said:
			
		

> Is it just me or did the Peshmerga get pushed aside by the Iraqi army rather easily?
> 
> Disparity in equipment?



The first thing you need to realize is "The Pehmerga" is not really a monolith.  They are in fact smaller fighting units affiliated with the individual politcal parties of Kurdistan.  They have fought together as their interests were aligned. 

In this case it appears that the PUK party cut a deal with Iran/Shia Iraq and abandoned its key defensive positions leaving the KDP Peshmerga (Barzani clan) positions indefensible. Kurdistan is probably closer to civil war than independence at this point and the Turks, Shia Arabs and Iranians are ecstatic that it was all so easy.


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## Altair (17 Oct 2017)

Cdn Blackshirt said:
			
		

> The first thing you need to realize is "The Pehmerga" is not really a monolith.  They are in fact smaller fighting units affiliated with the individual politcal parties of Kurdistan.  They have fought together as their interests were aligned.
> 
> In this case it appears that the PUK party cut a deal with Iran/Shia Iraq and abandoned its key defensive positions leaving the KDP Peshmerga (Barzani clan) positions indefensible. Kurdistan is probably closer to civil war than independence at this point and the Turks, Shia Arabs and Iranians are ecstatic that it was all so easy.


infighting within infighting?

Perfect, as if the region couldn't go any more into the gutter.


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## PuckChaser (17 Oct 2017)

Altair said:
			
		

> Is it just me or did the Peshmerga get pushed aside by the Iraqi army rather easily?
> 
> Disparity in equipment?



By all accounts, the Peshmergha didn't fight back. They didn't want to get into an engagement, and simply moved back to the previous Kurdish autonomous regional lines.


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## a_majoor (15 Nov 2017)

Interesting realignments of forces and interests appear to be happening now. What this means for the Kurds is difficult to determine, they could be useful as a regional ally against Iran (especially since there is a sizeable Kurdish minority in Iran). Most probable outcome is everyone will be attempting to use them for their ends, and whatever fragile Kurdish unity exists will be tested as the various sides compete to either court or crush the Kurds in their region:

https://pjmedia.com/spengler/trumps-unsung-success-middle-east/



> *Trump's Unsung Success in the Middle East*
> BY DAVID P. GOLDMAN NOVEMBER 14, 2017 CHAT 56 COMMENTS
> 
> President Trump's Middle East policy is simple: Back our friends and scare the hell out of our enemies, and negotiate where possible with our competitors like Russia and China. By and large it's working, unlike the catastrophically failed polices of the previous two administrations. Trump did what he said he would do and succeeded. You wouldn't know that from the #fakenews media.
> ...


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