Author Topic: US vs OPEC "Oil War" (trade war)?  (Read 50907 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline jollyjacktar

  • Army.ca Fixture
  • *****
  • 129,237
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 5,367
  • My uncle F/Sgt W.H.S. Buckwell KIA 14/05/43 22YOA
Re: US vs OPEC "Oil War" (trade war)?
« Reply #25 on: February 19, 2015, 10:32:16 »
Supply might be rising, but it isn't stopping the pumps being jacked up here as I am sure is happening everywhere...   >:(

Online SeaKingTacco

  • Army.ca Veteran
  • *****
  • 104,105
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 4,349
  • Door Gunnery- The Sport of Kings!
Re: US vs OPEC "Oil War" (trade war)?
« Reply #26 on: February 19, 2015, 10:43:08 »
That is because gasoline is priced in USD. As the Canadian Dollar falls, the price of gasoline rises.

TANSTAAFL.

Offline YZT580

  • Full Member
  • *****
  • 16,490
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 481
Re: US vs OPEC "Oil War" (trade war)?
« Reply #27 on: February 19, 2015, 10:50:44 »
oh really!  Then why was it that when the dollar was on its way up the price of fuel wasn't on its way down, even a little bit?  Reminds me of global warming.  If you get snow its gw if you don't get snow its gw.

Online SeaKingTacco

  • Army.ca Veteran
  • *****
  • 104,105
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 4,349
  • Door Gunnery- The Sport of Kings!
Re: US vs OPEC "Oil War" (trade war)?
« Reply #28 on: February 19, 2015, 10:58:15 »
oh really!  Then why was it that when the dollar was on its way up the price of fuel wasn't on its way down, even a little bit?  Reminds me of global warming.  If you get snow its gw if you don't get snow its gw.

Because the price of crude was also on its way up.

Offline cupper

  • Army.ca Veteran
  • *****
  • 91,030
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 2,687
  • Nuke 'em 'til they glow, then wait until dark.
Re: US vs OPEC "Oil War" (trade war)?
« Reply #29 on: February 19, 2015, 20:50:19 »
Because the price of crude was also on its way up.

That's what they want you to think. :Tin-Foil-Hat:
It's hard to win an argument against a smart person, it's damned near impossible against a stupid person.

There is no God, and life is just a myth.

"He who drinks, sleeps. He who sleeps, does not sin. He who does not sin, is holy. Therefore he who drinks, is holy."

Let's Go CAPS!

Offline Robert0288

  • Full Member
  • *****
  • 22,167
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 493
Re: US vs OPEC "Oil War" (trade war)?
« Reply #30 on: February 19, 2015, 21:43:13 »
Still cheaper to buy gas in the US, even with the exchange rate.  BC taxes in the lower mainland are killer.

Offline TCBF

  • Army.ca Veteran
  • *****
  • 13,475
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 3,931
Re: US vs OPEC "Oil War" (trade war)?
« Reply #31 on: February 19, 2015, 21:52:26 »
- This thread should be joined with the "...World Without Oil..." thread so we can watch a bunch of people eat crow. :-)

- This was coming for awhile. The Saudis understand that if the Iranians had one little bundle of E=MC2, they would sooner use it on Riyadh than Tel Aviv.

- Exploration side of the patch is fragile at the moments. Large construction projects past the point of no return are still being worked on.

- The big players see opportunity here. A lot of small and aggressive firms may have been caught between two bases. Some good assets will be on the block, and some good talent as well.

- Nobody likes a slowdown, but... if you had a plan, you can keep your workers and pick up some good people freshly cast adrift. On the other hand, losing workers during a downturn means you might never see them come back. They find a more reliable go, or go back to school, or retire early, or have a kid, etc. etc.

- We need Canadian pipelines to Canadian refineries at tidewater. Dartmouth is slowing down and would be viable if modified for heavy oil.
- Keystone is not our friend. We should refine it where we mine it and export only our surpluses. Probably twenty years too late for that now.
"Disarming the Canadian public is part of the new humanitarian social agenda."   - Foreign Affairs Minister Lloyd Axeworthy at a Gun Control conference in Oslo, Norway in 1998.


"I didn’t feel that it was an act of violence; you know, I felt that it was an act of liberation, that’s how I felt you know." - Ann Hansen, Canadian 'Urban Guerrilla'(one of the "Squamish Five")

Online SeaKingTacco

  • Army.ca Veteran
  • *****
  • 104,105
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 4,349
  • Door Gunnery- The Sport of Kings!
Re: US vs OPEC "Oil War" (trade war)?
« Reply #32 on: February 19, 2015, 23:20:30 »
Dartmouth refinery is shut, last time I looked.

Offline jollyjacktar

  • Army.ca Fixture
  • *****
  • 129,237
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 5,367
  • My uncle F/Sgt W.H.S. Buckwell KIA 14/05/43 22YOA
Re: US vs OPEC "Oil War" (trade war)?
« Reply #33 on: February 20, 2015, 10:57:55 »
- We need Canadian pipelines to Canadian refineries at tidewater. Dartmouth is slowing down and would be viable if modified for heavy oil.

No, sorry.  IOL Dartmouth is not viable.  It was looked at by the company as could they, should they and it was decided not to attempt as the facility is too old to make an upgrade worth the time or money.  It is a shame that Ultramar sold and shipped off their refinery just under 20 years ago.

Dartmouth refinery is shut, last time I looked.

I have not been by there since they ceased refining, I guess what they have left is in storage.  I don't know what they plan to do after the tanks are empty. 

Online SeaKingTacco

  • Army.ca Veteran
  • *****
  • 104,105
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 4,349
  • Door Gunnery- The Sport of Kings!
Re: US vs OPEC "Oil War" (trade war)?
« Reply #34 on: February 20, 2015, 11:35:25 »
My understanding is that ESSO will continue to use Dartmouth as a storage and distribution point, after the refinery is dismantled and (probably) sold into the third world, somewhere.

Offline jollyjacktar

  • Army.ca Fixture
  • *****
  • 129,237
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 5,367
  • My uncle F/Sgt W.H.S. Buckwell KIA 14/05/43 22YOA
Re: US vs OPEC "Oil War" (trade war)?
« Reply #35 on: February 20, 2015, 11:41:54 »
That makes sense.  I suppose they'll get a few bucks for the refinery.

Offline Colin P

  • Army.ca Fixture
  • *****
  • 99,770
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 7,726
  • Civilian
    • http://www.pacific.ccg-gcc.gc.ca
Re: US vs OPEC "Oil War" (trade war)?
« Reply #36 on: February 20, 2015, 12:38:36 »
Here in Vancouver, Chevron shut it's refinery down on a 6 week planned shutdown forcing more of the local demand to be bought from further afield. This is the biggest refinery in BC. Also the US strikes is effecting supplies of refined products as well.

Offline Retired AF Guy

  • Army.ca Veteran
  • *****
  • 28,980
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 1,382
Re: US vs OPEC "Oil War" (trade war)?
« Reply #37 on: February 20, 2015, 17:15:07 »
Still cheaper to buy gas in the US, even with the exchange rate.  BC taxes in the lower mainland are killer.

One of the reasons, and may be the main reason, gas is cheaper in the U.S. is because they pay less taxes at the fuel pump. Here in Ontario, 30 % of the pump price is taxes (HST, provincial and federal fuel taxes). I'm willing to bet its the same its the same in the rest of Canada; except maybe Alberta which doesn't have a provincial sales tax.
Years ago, fairy tales all began with, "Once upon a time." Now we know they all began with, "If I'm elected."

Carolyn Warner

Offline cupper

  • Army.ca Veteran
  • *****
  • 91,030
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 2,687
  • Nuke 'em 'til they glow, then wait until dark.
Re: US vs OPEC "Oil War" (trade war)?
« Reply #38 on: February 20, 2015, 20:18:39 »
One of the reasons, and may be the main reason, gas is cheaper in the U.S. is because they pay less taxes at the fuel pump. Here in Ontario, 30 % of the pump price is taxes (HST, provincial and federal fuel taxes). I'm willing to bet its the same its the same in the rest of Canada; except maybe Alberta which doesn't have a provincial sales tax.

Oil prices are lower, and refiners margins are much smaller as well. Although taxes are a big part of the price difference, overall costs are lower as well.

Currently here just outside DC we are paying $2.25 US / USGal. It actually got below $2.00 US at one point earlier this year (2015).
It's hard to win an argument against a smart person, it's damned near impossible against a stupid person.

There is no God, and life is just a myth.

"He who drinks, sleeps. He who sleeps, does not sin. He who does not sin, is holy. Therefore he who drinks, is holy."

Let's Go CAPS!

Offline Rifleman62

    Retired.

  • Army.ca Subscriber
  • Army.ca Veteran
  • *
  • 69,545
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 2,379
Re: US vs OPEC "Oil War" (trade war)?
« Reply #39 on: February 20, 2015, 20:23:16 »
http://www.gasbuddy.com/Can_Tax_Info.aspx

Canada Fuel Taxes by Province

Please note the above rates are meant as only guidelines of pump taxes and may not represent the full tax amount at the pump. Source: Compiled by GasBuddy from various sources.

http://www.gasbuddy.com/Tax_Info.aspx

Total US Fuel Taxes by State
« Last Edit: February 20, 2015, 20:25:52 by Rifleman62 »
Never Congratulate Yourself In Victory, Nor Blame Your Horses In Defeat - Old Cossack Expression

Editor, The Devils' Blast, the Annual Chronicle of The Royal Winnipeg Rifles

http://www.royalwinnipegrifles.com/regimental-association/the-devils-blast/

Offline S.M.A.

  • Army.ca Fixture
  • *****
  • 132,340
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 6,515
Re: US vs OPEC "Oil War" (trade war)?
« Reply #40 on: March 04, 2015, 22:02:54 »
To think someone actually wrote a book a few years ago called "The end of oil".  ::)

Associated Press

Quote
Oil glut: U.S. running out of room to store crude; prices for oil and gasoline could plunge
By Jonathan Fahey, The Associated Press

NEW YORK, N.Y. - The U.S. has so much crude that it is running out of places to put it, and that could drive oil and gasoline prices even lower in the coming months.

For the past seven weeks, the United States has been producing and importing an average of 1 million more barrels of oil every day than it is consuming. That extra crude is flowing into storage tanks, especially at the country's main trading hub in Cushing, Oklahoma, pushing U.S. supplies to their highest point in at least 80 years, the Energy Department reported last week.

If this keeps up, storage tanks could approach their operational limits, known in the industry as "tank tops," by mid-April and send the price of crude — and probably gasoline, too — plummeting.


"The fact of the matter is we are running out of storage capacity in the U.S.," Ed Morse, head of commodities research at Citibank, said at a recent symposium at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

(...SNIPPED)

Our Country
--------------------------------
"A leader is best when people barely know he exists, when his work is done, his aim fulfilled, they will say: We did it ourselves."   - Lao Zi (老子)
-------------------------------------------
"Courage is going from failure to failure without losing enthusiasm."
- Winston Churchill

Offline Thucydides

  • Army.ca Legend
  • *****
  • 181,790
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 13,155
  • Freespeecher
Re: US vs OPEC "Oil War" (trade war)?
« Reply #41 on: March 17, 2015, 10:46:10 »
More on how the US industry is reacting to the Saudi initiatives. I think the Saudis badly miscalculated how much they could hurt the US oil industry, but they are probably comitted to their strategy since they can ride out the oil glut (although probably not for "20 years" given the amount of spending they need to prop up their internal welfare state) while still hurting Iran and Russia, Iran becasue they are apostates and a true challenger for regional hegemony and Russia because they are enablers of Iran and Syria (an Iranian ally).

One other factor to consider is any Republican Administration in the post 2016 period will likely open federal lands to oil exploration (something the current administration has banned), and allow the Keystone XL pipeline to be completed, allowing even more oil into the market. The Americans will also be very keen on using the oil weapon against Iran and Russia, as well as hammering regional troublemakers like Venezuela.

http://www.the-american-interest.com/2015/03/16/irrepressible-us-shale-defies-opec/

Quote
Irrepressible US Shale Defies OPEC

When OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, chose not to cut production last November, it effectively consigned its members to a prolonged period of low prices and the financial strain, palliated only by the hope that the bear market would soon squeeze American shale producers. The petrostate cartel essentially abdicated its market-fixing role on a bet that the relatively high cost of hydraulic fracturing would make American firms the world’s new swing producers, but as the FT reports, that bet is looking more and more suspect:
 
So far, overall US output seems to be only levelling off, rather than collapsing. If US crude stays at its present level of about $45 per barrel, then it seems likely that production will start falling later this year. But Wood Mackenzie, a consultancy, is forecasting that US oil production will grow this year and next, if there is a rebound in prices to about $60 per barrel. […]
 
The cost cuts and productivity gains that shale oil producers expect come in three categories…First, there are savings from putting pressure on suppliers of drilling rigs, hydraulic fracturing and other services. Companies have generally been saying they expect reductions of 20 to 30 per cent this year.
 
Second, companies benefit from focusing spending on their most productive assets. “You’re dropping all your worst-performing rigs and worst-performing rig crews and moving the rigs you have to your core areas,” says Randall Collum of Genscape, an energy research firm…Finally, there are productivity gains available from improved techniques.
 
OPEC is now saying that it expects U.S. production to possibly taper off in late 2015, certainly later than most member countries would like. Every month that American output continues in the face of cheap pricing puts tremendous strain on petrostate regimes that rely so heavily on oil sales for budgetary revenue. The Saudis have a sovereign wealth fund big enough to allow them to weather these market conditions for another 20 years, but the rest of OPEC is not so well-prepared.
 
The cartel is next scheduled to meet in June, but all signs point to continued inaction as the group battles for its share of an oversupplied market. Meanwhile, U.S. companies will continue to find ways to bring down their own costs. We’ve said it before, but it bears repeating: bet against American innovation at your own peril.
« Last Edit: March 17, 2015, 15:09:42 by Thucydides »
Dagny, this is not a battle over material goods. It's a moral crisis, the greatest the world has ever faced and the last. Our age is the climax of centuries of evil. We must put an end to it, once and for all, or perish - we, the men of the mind. It was our own guilt. We produced the wealth of the world - but we let our enemies write its moral code.

Offline tomahawk6

  • Army.ca Fixture
  • *****
  • 84,630
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 8,542
Re: US vs OPEC "Oil War" (trade war)?
« Reply #42 on: March 17, 2015, 12:46:59 »
Low prices is a boon to the consumer and freedom from the tyranny of OPEC.

Offline jollyjacktar

  • Army.ca Fixture
  • *****
  • 129,237
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 5,367
  • My uncle F/Sgt W.H.S. Buckwell KIA 14/05/43 22YOA
Re: US vs OPEC "Oil War" (trade war)?
« Reply #43 on: March 17, 2015, 13:11:39 »
Prices are not that low here in NS with respect to the price of oil.  I'd like some freedom from the tyranny of taxes we pay for our fuel.  We are getting screwed by someone, it may be the government or big oil or a combo of the two...

Offline E.R. Campbell

  • Retired, years ago
  • Army.ca Subscriber
  • Army.ca Myth
  • *
  • 455,180
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 18,061
Re: US vs OPEC "Oil War" (trade war)?
« Reply #44 on: March 17, 2015, 13:26:32 »
Saudi Arabia (and many (most?) of the Gulf States, too, I think) has a serious problem. As in China, the legitimacy of the ruling party, the royal family - House of Saud, depends upon satisfying the needs and wants of enough people. The Saudis, unlike the Chinese, have been poor managers: they have simply spent as though the oil would never, every run out. Saudi Arabia needs oil to be priced at about $100/bbl to balance its bloated (heavy on social services/transfers to individuals) budget, but $100/bbl oil could make America a (temporary)* energy superpower and change the energy power balance in the markets.

Cui bono? As T6 suggests: the American consumer and, that includes e.g. industries and public utilities, too; also China, which still has an insatiable demand for oil; ditto India where demand has been constrained mainly by the high price of oil. Western Europe also benefits for the same reasons America does.

Who loses? Canada? No, not really ... some strain, in Alberta, but Ontario gains, so it's a wash, really, from a national perspective. The Middle East? Yes! Africa? Yes! Venezuela? Yes! Russia? Yes! Yes!! Yes!!!

_____
* There are many reports that the economical output from fracking has a very limited life - I have read estimates as low as 15 years and as high as 50. Contrast that with e.g. Canada's heavy oil which is guesstimated to have a life of 100+ years, even 200+ by some estimates.
It is ill that men should kill one another in seditions, tumults and wars; but it is worse to bring nations to such misery, weakness and baseness
as to have neither strength nor courage to contend for anything; to have nothing left worth defending and to give the name of peace to desolation.
Algernon Sidney in Discourses Concerning Government, (1698)
----------
Like what you see/read here on Army.ca?  Subscribe, and help keep it "on the air!"

Offline Good2Golf

  • Directing Staff
  • Army.ca Fixture
  • *
  • 164,225
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 9,707
  • Dammit! I lost my sand-wedge on that last jump!
Re: US vs OPEC "Oil War" (trade war)?
« Reply #45 on: March 17, 2015, 13:27:52 »
Prices are not that low here in NS with respect to the price of oil.  I'd like some freedom from the tyranny of taxes we pay for our fuel.  We are getting screwed by someone, it may be the government or big oil or a combo of the two...

With Canada sitting (give or take) somewhere midway between the USA and Scandanavian countries regarding taxation and the social support that such levels of taxation support, only you can decide if the tax you pay for the social services you receive is acceptably balanced compared to other nations with lower or higher levels of taxation.  If you want to pay less taxes...

Offline TCBF

  • Army.ca Veteran
  • *****
  • 13,475
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 3,931
Re: US vs OPEC "Oil War" (trade war)?
« Reply #46 on: March 19, 2015, 01:01:25 »
- In the "Nothing is More Nervous Than a Dollar Bill" department, the recent Sprting and RV shows in Edmonton barely broke even, rumour has it.

- Also, daily vehicle counts in and out of "The Mac" for January 2015 are down by 200 - 300 vehicles per day compared to January 2014.
"Disarming the Canadian public is part of the new humanitarian social agenda."   - Foreign Affairs Minister Lloyd Axeworthy at a Gun Control conference in Oslo, Norway in 1998.


"I didn’t feel that it was an act of violence; you know, I felt that it was an act of liberation, that’s how I felt you know." - Ann Hansen, Canadian 'Urban Guerrilla'(one of the "Squamish Five")

Offline GAP

  • Semper Fi
  • Army.ca Subscriber
  • Army.ca Legend
  • *
  • 204,300
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 12,866
Re: US vs OPEC "Oil War" (trade war)?
« Reply #47 on: March 19, 2015, 07:51:07 »
- In the "Nothing is More Nervous Than a Dollar Bill" department, the recent Sprting and RV shows in Edmonton barely broke even, rumour has it.

I can confirm that here in Wpg. The haulers always clean their trailers before delivering them, and this year the traffic in haulers is down about 50-60 %. The dealers are just not ordering in as many trailers...and this is the busy season because of the RV shows....
Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I´m not so sure about the universe

Offline S.M.A.

  • Army.ca Fixture
  • *****
  • 132,340
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 6,515
Re: US vs OPEC "Oil War" (trade war)?
« Reply #48 on: March 23, 2015, 09:18:51 »
Let's see how much longer they can keep this up:

Reuters

Quote
OPEC won't bear burden of propping up oil price: Saudi minister
By By Rania El Gamal, Reem Shamseddine and Andrew Torchia

By Rania El Gamal, Reem Shamseddine and Andrew Torchia

RIYADH (Reuters) - OPEC will not take sole responsibility for propping up the oil price, Saudi Arabia's oil minister said on Sunday, signaling the world's top petroleum exporter is determined to ride out a market slump that has roughly halved prices since last June.

Last November, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries kingpin Saudi Arabia persuaded members to keep production unchanged to defend market share.

The move accelerated an already sharp oil price drop from peaks last year of more than $100 per barrel that was precipitated by an oversupply of crude and weakening demand.

Since the oil price collapse, top OPEC exporter Saudi Arabia has said it wants non-OPEC producers to cooperate with the group. But Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi said on Sunday that plan had so far not worked.

(...SNIPPED)

Our Country
--------------------------------
"A leader is best when people barely know he exists, when his work is done, his aim fulfilled, they will say: We did it ourselves."   - Lao Zi (老子)
-------------------------------------------
"Courage is going from failure to failure without losing enthusiasm."
- Winston Churchill

Offline Good2Golf

  • Directing Staff
  • Army.ca Fixture
  • *
  • 164,225
  • Rate Post
  • Posts: 9,707
  • Dammit! I lost my sand-wedge on that last jump!
Re: US vs OPEC "Oil War" (trade war)?
« Reply #49 on: March 23, 2015, 11:20:59 »
Quote
Saudi Arabia has said it wants non-OPEC producers to cooperate with the group. But Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi said on Sunday that plan had so far not worked.


Ya figure?  ;D