Author Topic: Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread  (Read 974860 times)

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Offline MarkOttawa

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Re: Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread
« Reply #3325 on: July 19, 2017, 16:00:57 »
And a tweet by Mr Glavin:
https://twitter.com/TerryGlavin/status/887730576882417664

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@TerryGlavin

"I told President Xi, 'Now we come to the part where I perform a cloying Canadian folk dance,' and he sighed, 'OK.'"


Governor General defends China visit amid Nobel peace laureate's death

As Gov. Gen. David Johnston prepares to end his service as the Queen’s representative in Canada, he took a moment to defend his goodwill mission to Chin...
http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/governor-general-defends-china-visit-amid-nobel-peace-laureate-s-death-1.3510058

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Offline MarkOttawa

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Re: Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread
« Reply #3326 on: July 24, 2017, 14:16:34 »
A tweet--NATO on notice?

Quote
SeaWaves Magazine‏ @seawaves_mag

Chinese Navy deployed


https://twitter.com/seawaves_mag/status/889251816998883328

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Offline MarkOttawa

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Re: Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread
« Reply #3327 on: July 24, 2017, 16:23:04 »
Excerpts from longish piece:

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Does China’s J-20 rival other stealth fighters?
...

...
How might China utilize the J-20

The J-20 has the potential to considerably enhance China’s regional military strength. According to a 2014 U.S. Naval War College report, an operational stealth fighter would “immediately become the most advanced aircraft deployed by any East Asian Power,” surpassing the aircraft fielded in India, Japan, Australia, Indonesia, or Taiwan. The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission advances a similar assessment, noting that the arrival of the J-20 will enhance China’s military leverage against opposing forces in the region. With the J-20 expected become fully operational in the next couple of years, the PLAAF has a considerable head start over the Indian, Japanese, and Korean air forces, which are not slated to put their locally-made advanced fighter counterparts into service until the 2020s.

Opinions vary about the J-20’s comparative strengths as an air superiority (air-to-air) fighter or a strike (air-to-ground) aircraft. Some analysts believe that the J-20’s emphasis on frontal stealth makes it an effective long-range interceptor, meant for mid-air engagements. Others see the J-20 as a long-range strike aircraft, best suited for penetrating enemy air defenses and damaging critical infrastructure on the ground. Such high-value targets would include airfields, command bases, and other military installations. A 2015 RAND report noted the J-20’s “combination of forward stealth and long range could hold U.S. Navy surface assets at risk, and that a long-range maritime strike capability may be a cause for greater concern than a short-range air-superiority fighter like the F-22.” The J-20’s size and weapons configuration may, however, preclude it from functioning as an effective strike fighter in either context. Importantly, the mission types Chinese pilots are trained for may determine how the J-20 is eventually utilized...

Reports differ regarding the J-20’s range, which is expected to fall between 1,200 and 2,700 kilometers. Regardless of this uncertainty, the J-20’s combat radius is likely to extend well-beyond the Chinese mainland. The U.S. Naval War College suggests that the J-20 could be an “effective surface-attack platform for out to several hundred nautical miles at sea.” Air Power Australia notes that the J-20 would be a suitable choice of aircraft for operating within China’s “first island chain” and “second island chain.” Should China integrate aerial refueling aircraft with the J-20, the stealth fighter’s operational range would extend even further across the Asia-Pacific.

Increased range offers China considerable flexibility in terms of basing options. Basing the J-20 further inland means the J-20 can conduct distant missions before returning to the relative safety of China’s Integrated Air Defense System. This modernized aerial defense net – composed of early warning sensors, long-range surface-to-air missiles, and air interceptors – may deter opposing air forces from pursuing J-20s into the mainland.
http://chinapower.csis.org/china-chengdu-j-20/

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Offline Thucydides

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Re: Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread
« Reply #3328 on: August 07, 2017, 14:52:27 »
While nay saying of China's economy seems to be an annual sporting event, there are plenty of signs things are not quite the way the Chinese want us to see them:

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-08-06/china-s-ascent-isn-t-looking-so-inevitable-anymore

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Has China's Rise Topped Out?
The spread of its global economic influence is slowing sharply.
By Michael Schuman
August 6, 2017 at 17:00:06 EDT

The fall from grace of China’s Anbang Insurance Group Co. Ltd. continues to get steeper. Not long ago, the mysterious firm was chasing one foreign deal after another, becoming a symbol of China’s global economic ambitions. Now it appears the government may be pressuring Anbang to divest those prized foreign assets. If that proves to be the case, China will have given foreign businessmen yet another reason to be wary of working with Chinese companies: the uncertainty of an erratic, intrusive state meddling in private financial affairs.

But the Anbang case is also part of something bigger, and for China’s economic future, scarier. In just about every category, China’s rise into a global economic superpower has stalled. And the Chinese government sits at the heart of the problem.

Most people around the world still seem to believe China’s ascent is relentless and inevitable. A recent survey by the Pew Research Center showed that while more of those polled still see the U.S. as the world’s leading economy, China is quickly narrowing the gap. Chinese President Xi Jinping has been feeding that positive image by presenting his country as a champion of globalization, trade and economic progress.

Statistics tell a different story. The common perception is that China is swamping the world with exports of everything from mobile phones to steel to sneakers. In fact, the entire Chinese export machine is sputtering. Between 2006 and 2011, China’s total merchandise exports nearly doubled, powering the country through the Great Recession. Since then, they’ve increased less than 11 percent, according to World Trade Organization data.

The same trend holds for China’s currency. In late 2014, the renminbi broke into the top five most-used currencies for global payments, reaching an almost 2.2 percent share. China seemed well on the way to achieving its long-stated goal of turning the yuan into a true rival to the dollar. But that progress has reversed. In June, the renminbi chalked up only a 2 percent share, according to Swift, slipping behind the Canadian dollar.

The situation isn’t very different in China’s capital markets. While the government has cracked open its stock and bond markets to foreign investors, they still prefer buying Chinese shares listed in Hong Kong or New York to those in Shanghai or Shenzhen. For instance, domestically traded A-shares in a China equities fund managed by Zurich-based GAM account for less than 10 percent of its holdings.

In part, China is simply running into the difficult transition every country faces when losing its low-cost advantage. Facing stiff competition from countries like India and Vietnam, where wages are lower, China is losing ground in apparel and textile exports to the United States. Meanwhile, the Chinese economy isn’t replacing these traditional exports with new, high-value ones quickly enough. For example, in 2016, China exported 708,000 passenger and commercial vehicles, a sharp deterioration from the more than 910,000 shipped abroad in 2014.

Rather than boosting China’s global expansion, government policy is holding it back. The renminbi remains a sideshow in currency markets because the state can’t stop fussing with its value. In May, the central bank actually reversed its stated policy to liberalize the renminbi’s trading and imposed more control. Investors haven’t forgotten the heavy hand Beijing employed to try to quell a stock market collapse in 2015, leaving them wary of exposing themselves to Chinese shares.

Nowhere is the disconnect between China’s global ambitions and actual policy greater than with the government’s interference in overseas direct investment. For a while, officials were encouraging big companies to shop abroad, resulting in a surge of deal-making by firms like Anbang. That led to a debt-crazed buying binge. Having created the problem, the government then stepped in to “fix” it, by suddenly changing course and clamping down on foreign deals. According to the American Enterprise Institute, China’s offshore investment still grew by 9 percent in the first half of 2017, but only because of one giant deal -- state-owned China National Chemical Corp.’s acquisition of Syngenta AG. Take that one out, and overseas investment would have fallen by about a third.

The root cause of China’s global stall is this continued inability to let markets be markets. Meddling in the allocation of finance has ensured that much-needed capital gets gobbled up by the politically connected, not the competitive. Then the government tries to rectify the damage with more government. In an effort to rejuvenate exports, China has unleashed a subsidy-rich industrial program to upgrade its manufacturing called “Made in China 2025.” To help companies expand around the region, the government has cooked up the Belt and Road Initiative, an infrastructure-building scheme that looks to many like a boondoggle.

The fact is that Chinese companies will face enough trouble transforming into global players -- with the brands, technology, financial savvy and management expertise to battle it out with the world’s best -- without bureaucrats intruding. Anbang may or may not be an overleveraged neophyte that bit off more than it could chew. The point is that China would be better served letting the market decide.

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
Dagny, this is not a battle over material goods. It's a moral crisis, the greatest the world has ever faced and the last. Our age is the climax of centuries of evil. We must put an end to it, once and for all, or perish - we, the men of the mind. It was our own guilt. We produced the wealth of the world - but we let our enemies write its moral code.

Offline MarkOttawa

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Re: Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread
« Reply #3329 on: August 14, 2017, 13:45:45 »
Meanwhile at the Himalayan military cockpit--a bit alarmist headline but (note Chinese leaking)...

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China and India on brink of armed conflict as hopes of resolution to border dispute fade
Chinese military primed for battle, military sources say; Indian troops ‘prepared for any eventuality’

Chinese and Indian troops are readying themselves for a possible armed conflict in the event they fail in their efforts to achieve a peaceful resolution to their border dispute on the Doklam plateau in the Himalayas, observers said.

On Friday [Aug. 11], India’s defence minister Arun Jaitley told parliament that the country’s armed forces are “prepared to take on any eventuality” of the stand-off, Indian Express reported the same day.

Sources close to the Chinese military, meanwhile, said that the People’s Liberation Army is increasingly aware of the possibility of war, but will aim to limit any conflict to the level of skirmishes, such as those contested by India and Pakistan in Kashmir.

China repeats demand for remaining 53 Indian troops to leave its territory in disputed region

“The PLA will not seek to fight a ground war with Indian troops early on. Instead it will deploy aircraft and strategic missiles to paralyse Indian mountain divisions stationed in the Himalayas on the border with China,” a military insider told the South China Morning Post on condition of anonymity, adding that he believes Indian troops will probably hold out for “no more than a week”.

Another military source said that officers and troops from the Western Theatre Command have already been told to prepare for war with India over the Doklam crisis.

“There is a voice within the army telling it to fight because it was Indian troops that intruded into Chinese territory in Donglang [Doklam],” the second source said. “Such a voice is supported by the public.”

Diplomacy to defuse China-India border crisis hits a roadblock, sources say

Both sources said that China’s military believes any conflict will be controlled, and not spill over into other disputed areas, of which there are currently three along the 2,000km border between the two Asian giants.

However, Indian defence experts warned that once the first shot is fired, the conflict may escalate into full-scale war. That in turn could result in New Delhi blockading China’s maritime lifeline in the Indian Ocean.

“Any Chinese military adventurism will get a fitting reply from the Indian military,” Dr Rajeev Ranjan Chaturvedy, a research associate at the Institute of South Asian Studies at the National University of Singapore, told the Post.

“Certainly, it will be detrimental for both, but if Beijing escalates [the conflict], it will not be limited. Perhaps, it may extend to the maritime domain as well,” he said.

Amid China-India row, Modi takes to Weibo with sympathy for Sichuan quake victims

“If China engages in a military offensive against India, New Delhi will take all necessary measures ... [and will] respond to Chinese actions in its own way. Why only a border war? It could escalate to a full-scale India-China war,” he said...
http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2106493/china-and-india-brink-armed-conflict-hopes-resolution

Pity North Korea getting all the attention elsewhere.

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Re: Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread
« Reply #3330 on: August 15, 2017, 01:03:00 »
It's being reported that Chinese State media has given a deadline of August 19th for Indian Forces to withdraw or they will be forcefully removed from the region. This could get ugly, really fast, India is unlikely to back down and let China Annex part of Bhutan.
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Re: Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread
« Reply #3331 on: August 15, 2017, 07:11:02 »
It's being reported that Chinese State media has given a deadline of August 19th for Indian Forces to withdraw or they will be forcefully removed from the region. This could get ugly, really fast, India is unlikely to back down and let China Annex part of Bhutan.


I agree. This is, potentially, much more serious than the American "bluster war" with North Korea.

India is anything but a pushover; the Indian Army is, I think, one of the best in the world, probably, qualitatively, quite a bit better than the Chinese PLA which is still in the midst of a generation long project aimed at making the PLA smaller and much more professional.
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Re: Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread
« Reply #3332 on: August 15, 2017, 08:06:24 »
It's being reported that Chinese State media has given a deadline of August 19th for Indian Forces to withdraw or they will be forcefully removed from the region. This could get ugly, really fast, India is unlikely to back down and let China Annex part of Bhutan.
Meanwhile, this from Indian media ...
Quote
Forays into the Indian Ocean by Chinese submarines is on the rise. On April 22, a Yuan class diesel-electric submarine was spotted in the Indian Ocean. This is one of the more modern and dependable Chinese submarines; they have a reputation of being "quiet."

The Yuan class boat visited Karachi on May 26 and left on June 1 and then, again on July 11 for six days. Karachi is perhaps a natural destination for a Chinese submarine as Pakistan is a close ally. In recent times, Sri Lanka has not been keen to host Chinese submarines or as the Lankans say, submarines from any countries. The submarine was also accompanied by a PLA vessel.

The official reason for the presence of the PLA Navy has been "anti-piracy" missions. But surely, a submarine, and one as advanced as this one, isn't the best way of fighting pirates off the coast of East Africa ...
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Re: Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread
« Reply #3333 on: August 15, 2017, 12:06:35 »
Reportedly China is trying to get a naval base set up in Pakistan, if so, this could become a regional conflict really fast, and a war of three nuclear armed nations is a lot more of a worry then US vs NK
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