Iraq in Crisis- Merged Superthread

[tomahawk6]

Maybe its my fuzzy math,but the numbers are fluctuating.

 

[vonGarvin]

Now Canada is going to be sending some advisors....


Link

From the link, this line caught my eye:

"Obviously I think that's a red line for everybody here: no boots on the ground," (Kerry) said.​

It's only my opinion, but if our key deciding factor is whether or not we have "boots on the ground", then we are bound to fail, because the other side has absolutely no qualms about having boots on the ground, and that, my friends, is necessary to win wars.

 

[CougarKing]

Good. Decapitating the ISIS leadership one by one.

NBC news

Aide to ISIS Leader Among 3 Killed in U.S. Strike: Iraqi Official

Three senior members of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) - including an aide to its leader - were killed in a U.S. airstrike in Iraq, a senior Iraqi security official told NBC News Thursday. The strike on the ISIS stronghold of Mosul killed Abu Hajar Al-Sufi, an aide to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, as well as an explosives operative and the military leader of nearby Tel Afar, the source said on condition of anonymity. Al Arabiya cited the Iraqi Defense Ministry saying Baghdadi's aide had been killed.

Pentagon Spokesman Col. Steve Warren could not confirm the deaths and said ISIS leaders had not been targeted. But he added that if ISIS leaders were embedded "inside troop formations they are likely to be killed." The U.S. has been carrying out airstrikes across the country's north after the brutal terror group gained ground in a murderous sweep in June. The U.S. and the West have stepped up their rhetoric against the group after what Obama's opponents said was a slow start in articulating a solution to the crisis.

(...EDITED)

 

[cryco]

Good luck to those going

 

[PPCLI Guy]

It's only my opinion, but if our key deciding factor is whether or not we have "boots on the ground", then we are bound to fail, because the other side has absolutely no qualms about having boots on the ground, and that, my friends, is necessary to win wars.

No US or Western boots.  Boots from people who live in the neighbourhood and have the most to lose?  Absolutely.

 

[Kirkhill]

No US or Western boots.  Boots from people who live in the neighbourhood and have the most to lose?  Absolutely.

Does that include "deniable" boots and "PSCs"?  Or are we just talking about uniformed combatants?

Just askin'. 

 

[Journeyman]

Good. Decapitating the ISIS leadership one by one.

Yes, working through the High-Value Target Capture/Kill list failed miserably in Afghanistan; I'm sure it will work out brilliantly this time though.  :nod:



[Opinions / Informed opinions]  :not-again:

 

[CougarKing]

Some strange bedfellows in the fight against ISIS in Iraq:

Huffington Post

The Shadowy Iranian General Who's Fighting 'With The US' Against Islamic State
The Huffington Post UK | By Jack Sommers

 

The most powerful man in the Middle East you have never heard is on the frontline in Iraq fighting Islamic State (IS) - which is remarkable, and not just because he's 57.

The Iranian military mastermind Qassem Suleimani, who remains virtually unknown outside the region, has been photographed in Iraq with those fighting the Sunni militants of IS.

Suleimani commands the elite Quds Force, which is part of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and helps Tehran wage covert operations abroad. Fighters from the Quds Force are believed to have already played a key role in boosting Bashar al Assad's government forces in next-door Syria by engaging in combat with various Syrian rebel groups - including IS.

In a supreme irony, common in the Middle East of late, Suleimani is officially designated a terrorist by the US government - but is now fighting a terrorist group that has murdered at least two US citizens - James Foley and Steven Sotloff - and has been bombed by the US air force.

This image surfaced on Twitter on Tuesday and is believed to show the shadowy Iranian general on the ground in Amerli, the northern Iraqi town besieged by IS for two months until it was routed by Iraqi forces earlier this week, with the assistance of US air strikes. The town is not far from the Iranian border.

 

The war against IS have set the stage for the the United States and Iran to become unlikely allies - 12 years after George W Bush included the country in his "axis of evil".

In a long New Yorker profile last year, Suleimani was dubbed "the Shadow Commander" for his role in Middle East wars and regional politics.

His influence in Iraq has been so great, he has previously been accused of "secretly running" the country.

 

[Kilo_302]

Iran was eager to help the US during the opening phases of Enduring Freedom as well. They provided much of the HUMINT for US forces in the first few months, as Iran had had an intelligence presence on the ground for some time (they weren't fans of the Taliban either). George W. was so grateful he included Iran in the famous "Axis of Evil" State of the Union speech in early January 2002. That move has got to be one of the biggest foreign policy blunders of the decade, as 18 months later the US was on the ground in Iraq fighting a growing insurgency that was supported by Iran. A genuine warming of relations between the two could have potentially made post-war Iraq a far easier situation to deal with.

 

[CougarKing]

A hint of things to come?

Military.com

US Expands ISIL Airstrikes Closer to Syria Border

Associated Press | Sep 07, 2014 | by Lolita Baldor
TBILISI, Georgia -- The U.S. military said Sunday it launched airstrikes around Haditha Dam in western Iraq, targeting Islamic State insurgents there for the first time in a move to prevent the group from capturing the vital dam.

The strikes represented a broadening of the U.S. campaign against the Islamic State militants, moving the military operations closer to the border of Syria, where the group also has been operating.

Speaking in Georgia where he's meeting with government and defense officials, U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said that if the dam were to fall into the militant's hands "or if that dam would be destroyed, the damage that that would cause would be very significant and it would put a significant additional and big risk into the mix in Iraq" including U.S. interests there.

(...EDITED)

 

[tomahawk6]

Just trying to keep IS away from the dam.

 

[Hisoyaki]

Much blame can be put on the shoulders of Maliki, but we (the "West") are certainly not without faults.

The polls indicate the US population is at best split on staying in Iraq. The rest of the Western world(including Canada) wanted nothing to do with Gulf War II. The people want out of the region. 

Iran, by contrast, will always be there.

US aid is always conditional--- even if a client country tiptoe the US line.A bunch of leftist fops might take power and demand the demise of a pro-western ally. This is essentially the story of the second Indochina war.

There is no sane leader that believes the US (and by extension the West) is a reliable ally. It's no wonder then that Iran is stepping in to fill the vacuum.

The US has made a commitment to the Iraqi people and it should make sure that democracy flourishes in Iraq, if only to maintain the credibility of future promises.

Supposing that a region-wide blockade is possible (it isn't --- if illegal immigration in the EU and US are any indicators.Not to mention, how do you sell this option to a leftist populace?),  --- there's no guarantee that something like a democracy will come out on top.

 

[CougarKing]

The air strikes continue in Iraq even as Obama weighs whether expanding them into Syria is politically feasible:

Reuters

Obama expands air strikes against Islamic State in Iraq, stops siege of vital dam
By: Ned Parker and Phil Stewart, Reuters
September 9, 2014 12:23 AM

BAGHDAD/TBILISI - US warplanes carried out five strikes on Islamic State insurgents menacing Iraq's Haditha Dam on Sunday, witnesses and officials said, widening what President Barack Obama called a campaign to curb and ultimately defeat the jihadist movement.

Obama has branded Islamic State an acute threat to the West as well as the Middle East and said that key NATO allies stood ready to back Washington in action against the well-armed sectarian force, which has seized expanses of northern Iraq and eastern Syria and declared a border-blurring religious caliphate.

The leader of a pro-Iraqi government paramilitary force in western Iraq said the air strikes wiped out an Islamic State patrol trying to attack the dam - Iraq's second biggest hydroelectric facility that also provides millions with water.

(...EDITED)

Military.com

Analysis: US Wary Over Hitting Syrian Militants


Associated Press | Sep 08, 2014 | by Zeina Karam
BEIRUT -- The U.S. and its allies are trying to hammer out a coalition to push back the Islamic State group in Iraq. But any serious attempt to destroy the militants or even seriously degrade their capabilities means targeting their infrastructure in Syria.

That, however, is far more complicated. If it launches airstrikes against the group in Syria, the U.S. runs the risk of unintentionally strengthening the hand of President Bashar Assad, whose removal the West has actively sought the past three years.

Uprooting the Islamic State group, which has seized roughly a third of Syria and Iraq, may potentially open the way for the Syrian army to fill the vacuum.

(...EDITED)

 

[cupper]

Much blame can be put on the shoulders of Maliki, but we (the "West") are certainly not without faults.

The polls indicate the US population is at best split on staying returning in Iraq. The rest Most of the Western world(including Canada) wanted nothing to do with Gulf War II. The people want out of the region. 

Iran, by contrast, will always be there.

US aid is always conditional--- even if a client country tiptoe the US line.A bunch of leftist fops might take power and demand the demise of a pro-western ally. This is essentially the story of the second Indochina war.

There is no sane leader that believes the US (and by extension the West) is a reliable ally. It's no wonder then that Iran is stepping in to fill the vacuum.

The US has made a commitment to the Iraqi people and it should make sure that democracy flourishes in Iraq, if only to maintain the credibility of future promises.

Supposing that a region-wide blockade is possible (it isn't --- if illegal immigration in the EU and US are any indicators.Not to mention, how do you sell this option to a leftist populace?),  --- there's no guarantee that something like a democracy will come out on top.

Couple of points:

Although Canada publicly rejected any involvement in the invasion in 2003, behind the scenes diplomatic discussions and offers were made to provide support of the invasion.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/weston-canada-offered-to-aid-iraq-invasion-wikileaks-1.1062501

You should go back and review why the US pulled out of Iraq. It was the failure to get an agreement on the status of forces with the Iraqi government that resulted in the 2011 deadline being set by the Bush Administration.

 

[Hisoyaki]

It is extremely hard to believe that the US could not have put enough leverage on a client state whose army was/is dependent upon its generosity.

Fact is, US public opinion was turning against the Iraq War well before the 2011 deadline. 
http://www.pollingreport.com/iraq2.htm

Leaving Iraq was a major point of Obama's campaign. Regardless of the SOFA, the USA elected a president whose major campaign theme was withdrawal from Iraq.Hardly the stuff that would encourage an iraqi to embrace and fight for the US cause.  The SOFA is a convenient if lame excuse to save face and placate opposition at home.

As Donald Rumsfeld puts it (in regards to Afghanistan, but the point is equally valid for Iraq):

"...we have status of forces agreements, probably with 100, 125 countries in the world. This administration, the White House and the State Department have failed to get a status of forces agreement. A trained ape could get a status of forces agreement. It does not take a genius. We have so mismanaged that relationship."

 

[CougarKing]

Hmm. I wonder if we'll see Turkey participating in the air campaign soon?

Defense News

Hagel Meets Turkish Leaders To Discuss Fight Against Islamic State
Sep. 8, 2014 - 05:33PM  |  By BURAK EGE BEKDIL

ANKARA — US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel met here Monday with Turkish dignitaries to discuss possible cooperation against the Islamic State, also known as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), an army of radical Islamists that took large swathes of Iraqi and Syrian territory in July and August.

Hagel met with Turkey’s top soldier, Chief of General Staff Gen. Necdet Ozel, at the military headquarters, before having further meetings with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu and Defense Minister Ismet Yilmaz.

Turkish officials said Hagel’s visit was a follow-up to Erdogan’s meeting with US President Barack Obama on the sidelines of the NATO Summit in Wales last week during which nine NATO countries, including Turkey, as well as Australia, discussed the formation of a core group to “destroy ISIL.”

(...EDITED)

 

[tomahawk6]

Turkey will be content to watch from the sidelines.

 

[CougarKing]

A parallel update at the Syria superthread:

Obama making big speech tonight on how he will fight ISIS

Obama will make a big speech tonight on how he will fight ISIS at 9 pm EST, 6 PM Pacific on North American networks.

 

[cupper]

Turkey will be content to watch from the sidelines.

Maybe not. There could be some unforeseen effects on the Turkish economy which could force them to make a larger effort to address the ISIS presence within their own borders.

Case in point, the company I work for is involved in several construction projects in Turkey which we are trying to get past the start line. Latest word is that a couple of those projects that are situated around Adana and Osmaniye near the Syrian border are delayed because contractors cannot ensure the safety of workers due to death threats and vandalism. Some of the incidents have supposedly been linked to militants who came across from Syria claiming to be refugees displaced by the civil war.

 

[GAP]

They will just keep paying the bribes/blackmail they have been paying all along....for protection from attack