A Deeply Fractured US

[kkwd]

So for politicians to be scumbags it’s necessary for them to be charged?

Gonzales spoke truth, and Gaetz won’t lift a finger other than to cry and rant a bit. What you won’t see is any sort of defamation action that would put Gaetz under the microscope of discovery.

Scumbag is not a legal term so you are right. I haven't seen publicly available evidence of the allegations against Gaetz. As far as I know he is currently under investigation by the House Ethics committee. Maybe something concrete will come from that.

 

[kkwd]

They could have had it months ago plus a border bill with bipartisan support, but they pissed that away catering to their party’s extremists. They’ve realized that on substantive issues they may have more in common with, and more to gain from working with, the other party’s centrist moderates than their own party’s lunatic fringe.

That was a Senate bill and as far as I know it never made it to the house. Bernie Sanders voted against it in the Senate as well so total blame is not with the Republicans. The final vote was 50 to 49. The House did pass HR 2 last May but that never made it to the floor in the Senate. You would think they would have added their own amendments or at least gave it a fair hearing.

 

[Remius]

https://www.axios.com/2024/04/21/hakeem-jeffries-speaker-mike-johnson-israel-ukraine

Interesting about Jeffries. American politics is interesting to be sure.

 

[kkwd]

https://www.axios.com/2024/04/21/hakeem-jeffries-speaker-mike-johnson-israel-ukraine

Interesting about Jeffries. American politics is interesting to be sure.

It certainly is interesting. The minority leader had to OK votes for something the party wanted. Now there is spin that all the credit goes to Jeffries. I would bet him, or anybody else in his party, didn't have a hand in crafting that bill.

 

[Remius]

It certainly is interesting. The minority leader had to OK votes for something the party wanted. Now there is spin that all the credit goes to Jeffries. I would bet him, or anybody else in his party, didn't have a hand in crafting that bill.

Seems like more party discipline the Democrat side. Glad they got it done. Now the GOP just needs to rid themselves of their Russian apologists. Starting with MTG.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Seems like more party discipline the Democrat side. Glad they got it done. Now the GOP just needs to rid themselves of their Russian apologists. Starting with MTG.

I suppose they could deny her nomination next time around, but I think her removal depends on her constituents, not the party. And what happens if she wins the state primary? I really don't know, just guessing.

 

[Brad Sallows]

The minority leader had to OK votes for something the party wanted.

Just so. There's nothing special about voting for what you really want without having to vote for something you really don't want as part of the package.

 

[Eaglelord17]

Doesn't bode well for the GOP going into an election divided.

Better to rip the bandaid off now, restructure to be a actual political opponent and lose the election. Than to wallow in the muck lose the election anyways and still have to rip the bandaid off in the future.

The sooner the Republicans get their house in order the sooner they will be able to potentially form government again.

 

[Brad Sallows]

The sooner the Republicans get their house in order the sooner they will be able to potentially form government again.

What does that mean? The presidency, which polls suggest Trump will win unless he is convicted of something? The Senate, for which Republicans have an easy map this year? The House, which polls suggest is too close too call right now? Two of the three? All of them?

The two parties are realigning big time, as the non-college-educated shift right and the college-educated shift left. That suggests there isn't a prospect of a "house in order" which represents a return to the establishment/neo-con gang. The "house in order" will have to be one which appeals to the people shifting right.

 

[Eaglelord17]

What does that mean? The presidency, which polls suggest Trump will win unless he is convicted of something? The Senate, for which Republicans have an easy map this year? The House, which polls suggest is too close too call right now? Two of the three? All of them?

The two parties are realigning big time, as the non-college-educated shift right and the college-educated shift left. That suggests there isn't a prospect of a "house in order" which represents a return to the establishment/neo-con gang. The "house in order" will have to be one which appeals to the people shifting right.

It means you lay down with dogs you get fleas. Some of these ‘Republicans’ are just nut jobs. People like Lauren Boebert, Marjorie Taylor Greene, etc. At best they are idiots, at worst they are actively undermining the USA. They would do better as a party if they cast aside these people.

 

[KevinB]

What does that mean? The presidency, which polls suggest Trump will win unless he is convicted of something? The Senate, for which Republicans have an easy map this year? The House, which polls suggest is too close too call right now? Two of the three? All of them?

The two parties are realigning big time, as the non-college-educated shift right and the college-educated shift left. That suggests there isn't a prospect of a "house in order" which represents a return to the establishment/neo-con gang. The "house in order" will have to be one which appeals to the people shifting right.

What polls are you watching.

All you need to do is watch the Pennsylvania primary, NH got 17% of the Republican vote there and she suspended her campaign 6 weeks ago.

The ABT (anyone but Trump) vote will be a big part of the election, just like how Trump won his first term by those who hated HRC.

 

[Halifax Tar]

It means you lay down with dogs you get fleas. Some of these ‘Republicans’ are just nut jobs. People like Lauren Boebert, Marjorie Taylor Greene, etc. At best they are idiots, at worst they are actively undermining the USA. They would do better as a party if they cast aside these people.

Point taken, but I have dogs and they don't have fleas, and they believe our bed is rightly theirs.

 

[dimsum]

What polls are you watching.

All you need to do is watch the Pennsylvania primary, NH got 17% of the Republican vote there and she suspended her campaign 6 weeks ago.

The ABT (anyone but Trump) vote will be a big part of the election, just like how Trump won his first term by those who hated HRC.

…and those folks won’t properly show up on polls until pretty much right at the election.

 

[KevinB]

Edit my bad, it was 35% for Haley at the end

 

[brihard]

Edit my bad, it was 35% for Haley at the end

Holy crap

 

[Brad Sallows]

It means you lay down with dogs you get fleas. Some of these ‘Republicans’ are just nut jobs. People like Lauren Boebert, Marjorie Taylor Greene, etc. At best they are idiots, at worst they are actively undermining the USA. They would do better as a party if they cast aside these people.

Sure. The Democrats have the "Squad". Any guesses what happens if they are the balance of power in a narrowly-divided House with a Democratic speaker?

 

[Brad Sallows]

What polls are you watching.

All you need to do is watch the Pennsylvania primary, NH got 17% of the Republican vote there and she suspended her campaign 6 weeks ago.

The ABT (anyone but Trump) vote will be a big part of the election, just like how Trump won his first term by those who hated HRC.

RCP Averages.

Trump has been leading in the (relatively meaningless) popular vote averages for weeks, although the amount dropped a while back and looks like it's within margin-of-error. More importantly, he has been consistently leading in 5 - usually 6 - of the 7 battlegrounds, and was even leading in PA (ie. all 7) - which Biden has mostly held only by a very small amount - a short while back. (For those not attuned to US presidential elections: the result is decided by the EVs - electoral votes - of the battleground states, not the popular vote.) He has consequently been leading in the EV electoral map.

"Battle for Congress" shows Senate Republicans at 49 and Democrats at 43, with 8 rated toss-up. Both the Republican and tossup count have nudged up slightly over the past few weeks, which amounts to slipping Democrat fortunes. Because of the way Senate elections are staggered and voting patterns have evolved over the decades, this is the year in the cycle that Democrats are defending a lot of seats compared to Republicans.

Generic ballot (ie. House) is a tie. Republicans have slipped from holding a slight lead over the past few weeks.

A behaviour of US national polls (president, House) customarily remarked upon is that there's a slight Democratic bias (ie. the samples are slightly tilted pro-Democrat; the estimate is almost always a value between 1% and 2%). What that means, for example, is that a poll claiming a "D+1" advantage should be regarded as 50/50. An actual 50/50 result means Democrats are slightly behind.

So, again, without relying on some single result which reinforces what one wishes to believe: Trump looks like he will win; the Senate looks comfortably Republican; the House is toss-up.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

It means you lay down with dogs you get fleas. Some of these ‘Republicans’ are just nut jobs. People like Lauren Boebert, Marjorie Taylor Greene, etc. At best they are idiots, at worst they are actively undermining the USA. They would do better as a party if they cast aside these people.

Let's not leave it on the right. The left has plenty of nut jobs also. The Squad comes immediately to mind. They were all duly elected by their constituents, who get to decide who they want to represent them. They are there to represent those people, not be a sheep to the party. Let's try to be, at least, equal opportunity haterz.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

RCP Averages.

Trump has been leading in the (relatively meaningless) popular vote averages for weeks, although the amount dropped a while back and looks like it's within margin-of-error. More importantly, he has been consistently leading in 5 - usually 6 - of the 7 battlegrounds, and was even leading in PA (ie. all 7) - which Biden has mostly held only by a very small amount - a short while back. (For those not attuned to US presidential elections: the result is decided by the EVs - electoral votes - of the battleground states, not the popular vote.) He has consequently been leading in the EV electoral map.

"Battle for Congress" shows Senate Republicans at 49 and Democrats at 43, with 8 rated toss-up. Both the Republican and tossup count have nudged up slightly over the past few weeks, which amounts to slipping Democrat fortunes. Because of the way Senate elections are staggered and voting patterns have evolved over the decades, this is the year in the cycle that Democrats are defending a lot of seats compared to Republicans.

Generic ballot (ie. House) is a tie. Republicans have slipped from holding a slight lead over the past few weeks.

A behaviour of US national polls (president, House) customarily remarked upon is that there's a slight Democratic bias (ie. the samples are slightly tilted pro-Democrat; the estimate is almost always a value between 1% and 2%). What that means, for example, is that a poll claiming a "D+1" advantage should be regarded as 50/50. An actual 50/50 result means Democrats are slightly behind.

So, again, without relying on some single result which reinforces what one wishes to believe: Trump looks like he will win; the Senate looks comfortably Republican; the House is toss-up.

Still to early to tell, as usual. Personally, I don't believe biden's numbers any more than I believe he got 81 million votes. The most in history and more than Obama.

 

[KevinB]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1782838449285849380