A Deeply Fractured US

[Remius]

Kevin McCarthy odds improve to be Speaker of the House during 12th floor vote

The voting continues for Speaker of the House and the for the Republican leader is in freefall on the odds board. We’re updating the market totals.

dknation.draftkings.com

What's the over/under on when a speaker gets elected? I go for Friday (maybe late Thursday).

they just adjourned.

Who knows at this point. I expect that the phones will be busy tonight and tomorrow morning.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Everyone likes to break a record now and again: 34th Congress (1855-1857), 133 ballots over two months.

So many people talk so favourably about legislators trying to claw back some of the power from the centre of an institution. But then it begins, and it's messy, and the tut-tutting begins.

 

[Remius]

And another list ballot for McCarthy.

One of his supporters voted present. That lowers the number needed to win but he now loses that vote.

Another self destructive day for the GOP in congress today.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

This is healthy IMO. I'd rather see a bit of turmoil and true back and forth rather than the slavish, muted concensus that has become the norm. I believe the Republicans will come out of this with a stronger, better placed caucus.

 

[Brad Sallows]

"Present" votes also lower the denominator. If everyone is present and everyone votes, it's 218 to win. If two members are absent and/or vote "present", it's 217 to win. And so on. Jeffries (Democratic candidate) will most likely continue to get 212 each round, so there's not a lot of room for playing chicken.

[Add: to be precise, the first one out lowers the threshold to 217; it takes two for each decrement after that.]

 

[Navy_Pete]

What exactly is the issue with having McCarthy as speaker with the holdouts?

Also, I don't think it's healthy if a small faction holds an outsized influence in a party; the UK example of the Brexiteers in the Conservative party is probably a good example.

 

[OldSolduer]

Here's an idea. Please bear with me.

Duelling with flintlock pistols to see who gets to be speaker - or whatever other office comes up, except for POTUS, governors of states, sheriffs etc.

Get a major corporation to sponsor it - Budweiser? Tide detergent? ( see how it takes the bloodstains right out!)

Televise it. Free for the prelims then PPV for the main events. Just like UFC.

And hire Joe Rogan to provide the play by play and a retired SOF operator to be the color commentator.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Here's an idea. Please bear with me.

Duelling with flintlock pistols to see who gets to be speaker - or whatever other office comes up, except for POTUS, governors of states, sheriffs etc.

Get a major corporation to sponsor it - Budweiser? Tide detergent? ( see how it takes the bloodstains right out!)

Televise it. Free for the prelims then PPV for the main events. Just like UFC.

And hire Joe Rogan to provide the play by play and a retired SOF operator to be the color commentator.

I'd pay good money to watch this lol

 

[Brad Sallows]

What exactly is the issue with having McCarthy as speaker with the holdouts?

Also, I don't think it's healthy if a small faction holds an outsized influence in a party; the UK example of the Brexiteers in the Conservative party is probably a good example.

Hold that thought next time we have a debate here about how wonderful some kind of proportional representation scheme would be for Parliament, with the major parties attempting to negotiate their way to a majority with a splinter faction of their former selves.

 

[Navy_Pete]

Hold that thought next time we have a debate here about how wonderful some kind of proportional representation scheme would be for Parliament, with the major parties attempting to negotiate their way to a majority with a splinter faction of their former selves.

PR can work reasonably well as long as there is compromise on all sides. These tea party folks don't compromise and mostly seem to be playing to their base (vice having an actual goal) so it's a bit of echo chamber of politics. Really no different than minority governments in a typical HoC setup, and why the NDP can get some of their policies implemented.

CPC and LPC could actually collaborate on things as well, but both sides are pretty entrenched in their 'not the other guy' role.

 

[Blackadder1916]

What exactly is the issue with having McCarthy as speaker with the holdouts?

Also, I don't think it's healthy if a small faction holds an outsized influence in a party; the UK example of the Brexiteers in the Conservative party is probably a good example.

The simplistic answer is they think that he is not Trumpian conservative enough. It was a similar view in 2015 during the speaker's election which was necessitated by the ouster resignation of GOP speaker John Boehner. At the time McCarthy, the GOP's House Majority Leader, was the leading contender to take the speaker's chair, but because of objections from the "Freedom Caucus", McCarthy stepped aside which permitted Paul Ryan to take the chair. This squabble isn't new.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Compromise implies at least two directions. While there is a lot of meaningless Nelson Muntz braying going on among commentators enjoying a bit of discomfiture, unless the Republicans really fumble and Jeffries is elected it will all eventually just amount to being a sideshow.

McCarthy is in this position because he couldn't (wouldn't) strike a deal between the election and now. Some of what is on the holdouts' wish list is impractical, and some is not. McCarthy refused to deal over some of the latter. Splinter factions don't arise for no reason; they arise because centrists become arrogant and inflexible. Ultimately most of what people blame on the fringe is set in motion by the centre, which is where the blame ought be firmly placed.

 

[Navy_Pete]

The simplistic answer is they think that he is not Trumpian conservative enough. It was a similar view in 2015 during the speaker's election which was necessitated by the ouster resignation of GOP speaker John Boehner. At the time McCarthy, the GOP's House Majority Leader, was the leading contender to take the speaker's chair, but because of objections from the "Freedom Caucus", McCarthy stepped aside which permitted Paul Ryan to take the chair. This squabble isn't new.

I guess they missed the election results, where they did a lot worse than they thought they should have done and a lot of Trumpers got thumped?

I think they'd have better luck putting up a more centrist candidate and working with the Dems then being held hostage by the 'Freedom Caucus'. Really hard to take seriously anyone who would ally themselves with Matt Gaetz.

 

[Brad Sallows]

If Republican centrists attempt to work with Democrats, who are demonstrably under the influence of their own left-most supporters, the situation will worsen. American conservatives have a long memory; they still bitch about Reagan's immigration handshake deal with O'Neill (amnesty now, better enforcement later, but the latter didn't happen). There are a few such examples of I'll-pay-you-Tuesday-for-a-hamburger-today deals on which they were stiffed that rankle conservatives - between Democrats and Republicans, and between "establishment" Republicans and "outsiders". Inevitably in a staged deal the junior partner has to make the "you take first" concession, and that's the outsiders.

To fix the supposed "dysfunction", the establishment has to make concessions to outsiders and keep their word. Has to. And the concessions may have to be a bit over-weighted to overcome past episodes of bad faith bargaining. And then Democrats will have to keep their word. Every time, at least for the first few times. If Democrats won't consistently bargain in good faith, or the Republican establishment won't consistently bargain in good faith with its outsiders, the fault for dysfunction lies with them. They're the ones making and breaking commitments.

 

[GR66]

If the Democrats were smart they'd realize that they don't have the votes to get their own Speaker elected so they should pick a Republican that they feel is reasonably moderate that they think they can at least have a chance of working with somewhat constructively and work with a handful of Republicans to get him/her elected Speaker.

If McCarthy gets elected it will only be because he has made some kind of deal with the Freedom Caucus and it will be doubtful that there will be any opportunities for cross aisle cooperation on any issues. If McCarthy is defeated by the Freedom Caucus then their alternative candidate is likely to be more hard line than McCarthy.

 

[Navy_Pete]

@GR66 I think they currently are just letting them self destruct but agree that makes the most sense if any of them want to get things done, but think that both sides are too polarized to make any concessions.

Which is too bad, because on most things they are really fairly close, and they could both tell the two extremes to get bent. Some things will still be wedge issues (abortion comes to mind) but they could always agree to disagree on some things. At least that would prevent things like a government shutdown from the weird budget approval process and some other administrative things.

 

[Remius]

@GR66 I think they currently are just letting them self destruct but agree that makes the most sense if any of them want to get things done, but think that both sides are too polarized to make any concessions.

Which is too bad, because on most things they are really fairly close, and they could both tell the two extremes to get bent. Some things will still be wedge issues (abortion comes to mind) but they could always agree to disagree on some things. At least that would prevent things like a government shutdown from the weird budget approval process and some other administrative things.

Agreed.

I think that the Dems are just eating their popcorn right now. I am sure that consensus candidate may be already identified and that a deal will come with it for Dems to accept or not. I suspect if that goes that way, we won’t be seing too many congressional impeachments or investigations and some legislation arising from the senate will get passed with not too many issues.

That’s assuming that the GOP does not have a consensus candidate of their own that would be acceptable to the moderates and the MAGA types but I’m not sure I see it yet. The loss margin is so small that it only takes a handful of stubborn types (and there are on both sides) to keep the process from happening.

 

[Remius]

6th ballot failure it seems. This will continue tomorrow I guess…

 

[Brad Sallows]

The best Democrats can reasonably hope for is McCarthy with no obligations to Republican dissenters. A Jeffries win is possible, but improbable. McCarthy cutting a deal that involves Democratic support in exchange for committees and investigations more to their liking is possible, but improbable (highly damaging to McCarthy and Republican interests). Short of those two outcomes, Democrats must know that the cost of allowing the spectacle to continue is increased risk of dealing with more hardened Republican positions (McCarthy with deals with dissenters, or a more conservative Republican than McCarthy). Facially that seems foolish (allowing a worse outcome when they control the means to fix it right now), but also to be weighed are the passions of Democrats (no surrender!) and the possibility that they just want the House to be a perpetual battlespace for the next two years.

 

[KevinB]

What exactly is the issue with having McCarthy as speaker with the holdouts?

A lot of the MAGA Reps are angry with his Ukraine support.
Apparently MAGA really means Make Russia Great