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Israeli strikes on Iran (2024, 2025, etc.)

Looks like Iran sent a wave of drones at Israel, but between the Jordanian and Israeli air forces they were taken out.

Obviously the 24 hour rule on BS early reporting is very much in effect. What does seem solid so far:
  • Multiple waves of Israeli strikes on Iran.
  • A preliminary and probably quite successful decapitation regime against Iranian military leadership and potentially nuclear scientists.
  • At least some degree of strikes on Iranian air defences and missile sites (eg, Tabriz).
  • At least some degree of strikes on known nuclear facilities; Natanz is supported by video of smoke plumes and Israeli claims to have hit the Uranium enrichment facility.
  • No indication Fordow enrichment plant was hit. It’s buried deep, and Israel may lack the capabilities.
  • Khamenei was not hit. Not clear if Israel even tried to get him.
  • Iranian reprisals have thus far been limited and ineffective.
  • The US has distanced itself from the attacks, BUT Trump has since commented essentially along the lines of “Iran had a chance to make a deal”.
  • Ongoing social media posts suggest daytime strikes on Iranian targets continue.
  • In addition, though less firm, it looks like that there were pretty broad strikes against conventional Iranian military sites and leadership. This may be with the aim of telling them “don’t you try anything”?

Random thoughts:
  • Iran has to hit back, but with what? Their relevant conventional capabilities are limited and Israel seems to have struck missile sites.
  • The US tried and failed to restrain Israel. The new U.S. administration is learning the hard way across various issues that other countries can and will decide on their own plays, be it economics and trade, or military. Pax Americana failed to contain Israel/Iran; US credibility and deterrence seems to have weakened in how it’s perceived, and the perception that Trump won’t see things through may have led Israel to feel they had to act unilaterally.

Things I’m watching for (beyond obvious ongoing strikes and Iranian counters):
  • Does Iran look to close the strait of Hormuz? Oil has already jumped significantly.
  • Iranian proxies: do the Houthis start restricting maritime trade again? Does Hezbollah/IRGC try to retaliate asymmetrically with, eg, overseas terrorism?
  • Will the U.S. belatedly join in now? Iran has some sites that Israel probably can’t hit. It’ll take US strategic bombers with massive payload capacity to strike some targets. E.g., Fordow.
  • Radioisotopes: If Israel succesfully hit enrichment plants, has anything leaked? Sampling could provide valuable intelligence. (Probably from ground level, I doubt a bombing raid would kick anything up to flight level for WC-135s to catch.)
  • What sort of BS will Iran stir up in Iraq? It’s the most directly ‘in reach’. The potential remains for this to evolve into a regional war.
  • And the big one: The stability of the Iranian regime. What will Iran’s people do, if they see their country defanged and the nuclear program taken out, with nothing to show for it? As I write this I’m seeing reports that Iran is throttling/closing down internet access.
Interesting times. We’ll see what nightfall brings.
 
What happens when you pull an entire nation's air force leadership into an emergency group meeting?

You find out too late that the meeting was a staged hoax and find the entireity of attendees taken out by a precision Israeli strike.

Did Israel send them the meeting invite via a Signal Group Chat?

Just another pager for the Israeli history books. :)
 
brihard said:
Looks like Iran sent a wave of drones at Israel, but between the Jordanian and Israeli air forces they were taken out.

Obviously the 24 hour rule on BS early reporting is very much in effect. What does seem solid so far:
  • Multiple waves of Israeli strikes on Iran.
  • A preliminary and probably quite successful decapitation regime against Iranian military leadership and potentially nuclear scientists.
  • At least some degree of strikes on Iranian air defences and missile sites (eg, Tabriz).
  • At least some degree of strikes on known nuclear facilities; Natanz is supported by video of smoke plumes and Israeli claims to have hit the Uranium enrichment facility.
  • No indication Fordow enrichment plant was hit. It’s buried deep, and Israel may lack the capabilities.
  • Khamenei was not hit. Not clear if Israel even tried to get him.
  • Iranian reprisals have thus far been limited and ineffective.
  • The US has distanced itself from the attacks, BUT Trump has since commented essentially along the lines of “Iran had a chance to make a deal”.
  • Ongoing social media posts suggest daytime strikes on Iranian targets continue.
  • In addition, though less firm, it looks like that there were pretty broad strikes against conventional Iranian military sites and leadership. This may be with the aim of telling them “don’t you try anything”?

Random thoughts:
  • Iran has to hit back, but with what? Their relevant conventional capabilities are limited and Israel seems to have struck missile sites.
  • The US tried and failed to restrain Israel. The new U.S. administration is learning the hard way across various issues that other countries can and will decide on their own plays, be it economics and trade, or military. Pax Americana failed to contain Israel/Iran; US credibility and deterrence seems to have weakened in how it’s perceived, and the perception that Trump won’t see things through may have led Israel to feel they had to act unilaterally.

Things I’m watching for (beyond obvious ongoing strikes and Iranian counters):
  • Does Iran look to close the strait of Hormuz? Oil has already jumped significantly.
  • Iranian proxies: do the Houthis start restricting maritime trade again? Does Hezbollah/IRGC try to retaliate asymmetrically with, eg, overseas terrorism?
  • Will the U.S. belatedly join in now? Iran has some sites that Israel probably can’t hit. It’ll take US strategic bombers with massive payload capacity to strike some targets. E.g., Fordow.
  • Radioisotopes: If Israel succesfully hit enrichment plants, has anything leaked? Sampling could provide valuable intelligence. (Probably from ground level, I doubt a bombing raid would kick anything up to flight level for WC-135s to catch.)
  • What sort of BS will Iran stir up in Iraq? It’s the most directly ‘in reach’. The potential remains for this to evolve into a regional war.
  • And the big one: The stability of the Iranian regime. What will Iran’s people do, if they see their country defanged and the nuclear program taken out, with nothing to show for it? As I write this I’m seeing reports that Iran is throttling/closing down internet access.
Interesting times. We’ll see what nightfall brings.
Click to expand...

I'm thinking it's all been staged as a massive advertising campaign for the F-35 ;)


Tin Foil GIF by Snervous Tyler Oakley
 
armyvern said:
What happens when you pull an entire nation's air force leadership into an emergency group meeting?

You find out too late that the meeting was a staged hoax and find the entireity of attendees taken out by a precision Israeli strike.

Did Israel send them the meeting invite via a Signal Group Chat?

Just another pager for the Israeli history books. :)
Click to expand...
The Iranian regime took a page out of "Hegseth's Guide to Effective Communication"
 
Infanteer said:
I thought this was pretty good.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1933338698071916894
Click to expand...

It would be even better if, having established local air supremacy, the Israelis could start launching short, sharp commando raids to kill or capture Iranian leaders, and destroy or secure vital infrastructure.

Maybe even team up with Ukraine to get some well deserved payback.

Call it OP HAPPY HUNTING GROUND ;)
 
daftandbarmy said:
It would be even better if, having established local air supremacy, the Israelis could start launching short, sharp commando raids to kill or capture Iranian leaders, and destroy or secure vital infrastructure.

Maybe even team up with Ukraine to get some well deserved payback.

Call it OP HAPPY HUNTING GROUND ;)
Click to expand...
The US can sit back and watch. Then make movies about it but with Americans as the heroes.

Strangely it looks like Israel said eff it and pretty much ignored the US. Ukraine might take a lesson here and start doing the same.

The world order is certainly shifting.
 
Remius said:
The US can sit back and watch. Then make movies about it but with Americans as the heroes.

Strangely it looks like Israel said eff it and pretty much ignored the US. Ukraine might take a lesson here and start doing the same.

The world order is certainly shifting.
Click to expand...

Strange take.

www.nationalreview.com

President Trump Did Indeed Warn the Iranians, Over and Over Again | National Review

In March President Trump warned Iran: ‘If they don’t make a deal, there will be bombing, the likes of which they have never seen before.’ Fact check: TRUE.
www.nationalreview.com www.nationalreview.com

Back on March 30, President Trump said of Iran, “If they don’t make a deal. there will be bombing. It will be bombing the likes of which they have never seen before.”

It sounds to me since Iran wasn't coming to the table, the US decided to relax the leash knowing what the outcome would be

"Hey you prolly shouldn't bomb another country, I wouldn't... but they're sort of asking for it and you gotta do what you gotta do... wink wink."
 
daftandbarmy said:
It would be even better if, having established local air supremacy, the Israelis could start launching short, sharp commando raids to kill or capture Iranian leaders, and destroy or secure vital infrastructure.
Click to expand...
It would appear they already have.
daftandbarmy said:
Maybe even team up with Ukraine to get some well deserved payback.

Call it OP HAPPY HUNTING GROUND ;)
Click to expand...
Well allegedly Iran is cutting off all arms shipments - so Russia is going to have a drone shortage.
Not sure what the Russian / Iranian mutual defense pact has done, other than show yet another Russian "Red Line" means absolutely nothing...

Israel has Heron drones operating with relative impunity over Iran currently.
 
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