OldSolduer
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you are absolutely correct on this. BUT - savages who think that we all who do not bow to Allah need to be eradicated just won't listen.
Maybe they will now
Israeli strikes on Iran (2024, 2025, etc.)
- Thread starter brihard
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Maybe they will now
And yet no matter how strong you get, the small neighbour you’ve been leaving alone always eventually seems to pick a fight over the dumbest little border city that they can neither take nor hold…
Brad Sallows
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Great opportunity to promote your armies.
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I really wasn't going to go for a conquest victory, but you kind talked me into it.
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The same happens in Total War games... I'm crushing the world as the Saxons, and suddenly Frisians want a war. Seems like humans and AI aren't that different.
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Interestingly, while OS reports approximately 3,000 SRBMs in Iran’s inventories, they apparently have just 150-200 TELs (transport/erector launchers) which are being picked off by IAF F-35s. At some point it will be like having a bunch of rounds but no gun to shoot them from.
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A bit of an evolution, it seems - this from Friday ...
Iranian political leadership is not a target of Israel's strikes, NSC chief says
'We have no plans to kill them," Tzahi Hanegbi says in a television interview; the National Security Council chief says Israel aims to make Iran abandon its nuclear ambitions
www.ynetnews.com
Also, this from the U.S. Deal Maker in Chief, via his socials:
Trump Says Peace Deal Could 'Easily' Be Done As Israel, Iran Continue Air Attacks
Civilians in both Israel and Iran sought cover as waves of air strikes hit major cities late on June 14 and early on June 15, with the latest armed conflict between the archenemies showing no signs of easing despite international calls for peace.
www.rferl.org
Latest from ISW .....
Institute for the Study of War
The Israeli air campaign is driving generational turnover in Iranian military leadership. The IDF has continued to target Iranian military targets across Iran, likely to degrade Iran’s retaliatory capabilities. This update contains early battle damage a
- The Israeli air campaign is driving generational turnover in Iranian military leadership. Israeli strikes have killed numerous senior military officers so far. Many of these officers had close personal bonds to one another, having forged brotherly ties in their youth during the Iran-Iraq War and maintained those relationships as they rose together through military ranks in the proceeding decades.
- Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei appointed Major General Amir Hatami as the overall Artesh commander. Hatami is notably a vocal proponent of Iran’s “active deterrence” doctrine, which has underpinned the offensive strategy that Iran has had since 2014-16.
- The IDF has continued to target Iranian military targets across Iran, likely to degrade Iran’s retaliatory capabilities.
- This update contains early battle damage assessments (BDA) of several Iranian facilities, including Natanz, Esfahan Nuclear Technology Center, and several military bases.
- Two US officials said Israeli strikes at Natanz were “extremely effective,” but a senior Israeli official added that the damage is not yet “fatal.”
- Israel struck the Artesh Air Force 2nd Tactical Airbase (TAB) in Tabriz on the night of June 12 to 13, as CTP-ISW previously reported. The strikes destroyed several buildings north of Artesh Air Force aircraft hangars and cratered the approaches from the hangars to the runway.
- Israel may have destroyed a likely aircraft hangar and a radar at Hamedan Air Force Base (43km north of Hamedan) on the night of June 12 to 13.
- Israel struck several buildings at the Amand Missile Base that likely stored ballistic missiles.
- Israel struck the Bakhtaran (Panj Pelleh) underground missile base in Kermanshah on June 13.
- Israel expanded its ongoing strike campaign against Iran on June 14 by targeting critical energy infrastructure. This expansion marks new Israeli efforts to degrade Iran’s capacity to sustain its military and nuclear program.
- CTP-ISW is monitoring reports that the IDF struck the Shahran oil depot on the northwestern outskirts of Tehran on June 14.
- Iran may respond to the Israeli escalation by threatening international maritime security.
- Iranian officials said that Iran will not return to US-Iran nuclear negotiations until Israel halts its attacks on Iran and Iran has finished its retaliatory attacks on Israel.
- Some of Iran’s partners and proxies in the Axis of Resistance have so far failed to meaningfully intervene and impose costs on Israel for targeting Iran so far.
- Iran has launched seven waves of ballistic missile attacks targeting Israel from Iranian territory since initial Israeli strikes on June 12."
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HavokFour
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Iranian commander killed in Israeli airstrike oversaw Shahed drone supply to Russia
Amir Ali Hajizadeh was sanctioned by the European Union in 2022 for overseeing Tehran's supply of Shahed-type drones to Russia.
kyivindependent.com
KevinB
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I used to play that game day and night.
Not a fan of Civ4 though.
I think Civ peaked with Civ 4, but that’s after the community made some great comprehensive mod packs.
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Laughs in Ukrainian ….Iranian commander killed in Israeli airstrike oversaw Shahed drone supply to Russia
Amir Ali Hajizadeh was sanctioned by the European Union in 2022 for overseeing Tehran's supply of Shahed-type drones to Russia.
KevinB
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My mistake, Civ5 was the turd that turned me off the franchise.
KevinB
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So looking at some of the IDF releases, it becomes fairly clear that Israel made a calculated decision.
They admit that expected Israeli losses were from 200-4,000 in Iranian return strikes. But that given how close Iran was to being able to build a fissile warhead and the potential loss of life from that was exponentially higher.
They admit that expected Israeli losses were from 200-4,000 in Iranian return strikes. But that given how close Iran was to being able to build a fissile warhead and the potential loss of life from that was exponentially higher.
HavokFour
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- ~200 on day 1
- ~70 yesterday
- ~20 today so far
Picking off launchers appears to be working really, really well. Iran may have to get creative soon if they want to use their munitions before those stockpiles all get picked off too.
14 total deaths in Israel now. Not anywhere close to what they were initially expecting, and I'm not sure if it'll even get close to the lower end (thankfully).
Brad Sallows
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As is customary, efforts to slow or halt the proceedings are under way. This strikes me as a decision that must be all-in, all the way - no half measure, no unfinished business.
Something we don’t have a feel for is Israel’s stock of interceptors of various classes.
It sounds like Israe has air dominance over western Iran, and that helps. However I expect Iran still has a lot it can launch from farther east, largely out of range of Israel’s Air Force. Iran has to have considered survivability for this context. So, is Iran safeguarding the ability to continue to launch large volleys including some more difficult to intercept missiles later? Are they degrading Israel’s interceptor stocks enough to matter? And, if the balance does shift towards some degree of interceptor exhaustion, can Iran hit enough of anything that matters? Slamming missiles into suburbs will piss people off, but it won’t improve the strategic position much.
Meanwhile, Israel seems to have a very free hand to hit things in western Iran that do matter, militarily and economically. Satellite and ground imagery appear to show at least a couple hits at the Ahvaz oil field. That’s a huge vulnerability for Iran; if Israel were to hit Iran’s oil export infrastructure - and it seems to be well in range - that could be a huge problem for the regime.
Obviously everybody else is going to be trying to simmer this down, but I don’t think Israel has any interest in outsiders who think that can keep Iran gripped at this point. They’ll keep going so long as it remains in their strategic interest to.
Things I’m watching for outside of continued military objectives:
- U.S. entry into the fight, likely via strategic bombing on sites like Fordow that Israel will struggle to hit. The U.S. may decide the best way out of this is to forge the whole way through and complete the defensible Israel objective of decisively destroying Iran’s nuclear program.
- Conversely, direct Iranian targeting of U.S. forces. This would be dumb.
- Israeli targeting of Khamenei. This would signal a regime change objective and would likely be accompanied by a ton of influence ops and targeted economic hits. Reporting today claims the US already ‘vetoed’ such a proposed hit. Can’t assess the accuracy of that.
- Wider attacks on Iranian economic targets. Oil distribution facilities and pipelines. Kharg island, etc.
- Domestic Iranian popular unrest; if the population comes to feel that the regime has taken them down a path they can’t sustain and seeks governmental change, that could be a challenge for the government.
- Iranian proxy bullshit. I’m surprised at how quiet this has been so far, notwithstanding how bad Hezbollah got smoked. Iran still has a huge network overseas and we may see a quiet shadow war between them and Israel/US.
- Israeli establishment of any fixed ground presence; seizing a western Iranian airfield as a FOB, or anything like that- very unlikely I think, but a not-impossible wildcard that would really shift the tone of this. I don’t think Israel has the ability to do this with an acceptable risk tolerance, but I could absolutely be wrong.
OldSolduer
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Nothing like a spinoff benefit. Good job.
MilEME09
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It's been noted in 3 days iran has fires some 290 large MRBM/IRBMs, in their strike in October 2024 they launched 201 in a single night. Could this be reduced launch capacity after the Israeli first strike? Or are they saving capability?
Probably some of both. I imagine the Israeli Air Force is hunting launch sites or vehicles fiercely.
