Israeli strikes on Iran (2024, 2025, etc.)

[Jarnhamar]

A pretty good summary of last night:

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Major “old man on Facebook” energy to this peace process.

Trump.is trying to hard to be relevant and take credit for Iran's nuclear ability being (initially) targeted.

It reminds me of Ukraines allies looking at each other when they were first attacked and when it was apparent they weren't going to be flattened in 3 days all of a sudden the support rolled in.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

If Iran has a police force that enforces dress codes, that presumes a capacity to shop/dress outside those codes. I stand to be educated otherwise, but I suspect most of Iran’s population (WAG +75% of IRN lives in urban areas?) won’t need to be retrained on that

The urban Iranians are very ready to transition. The Iranian government was not able to maintain tight borders, so many people have been to the west and have relatives in the west. Iran would transition very quickly. We had two Iranians over for dinner. They were super happy with the strikes and even celebrated when I pulled out a bottle of Israeli wine. We all chuckled at the clip of the female broadcaster fleeing after the Islamic TV building was hit.

 

[Halifax Tar]

The urban Iranians are very ready to transition. The Iranian government was not able to maintain tight borders, so many people have been to the west and have relatives in the west. Iran would transition very quickly. We had two Iranians over for dinner. They were super happy with the strikes and even celebrated when I pulled out a bottle of Israeli wine. We all chuckled at the clip of the female broadcaster fleeing after the Islamic TV building was hit.

Is that lady still alive ?

 

[The Bread Guy]

The urban Iranians are very ready to transition. The Iranian government was not able to maintain tight borders, so many people have been to the west and have relatives in the west. Iran would transition very quickly. We had two Iranians over for dinner. They were super happy with the strikes and even celebrated when I pulled out a bottle of Israeli wine. We all chuckled at the clip of the female broadcaster fleeing after the Islamic TV building was hit.

Doesn’t surprise me there’s more than one expat - especially those who left one shitty regime or another - happy to see current management get what it’s getting, for sure.

My worry is that the West doesn’t have a sterling track record of filling such voids, especially in this part of the world. Fingers crossed …

 

[NavyShooter]

I think that's the point here. I think the Israelis want to create the void. DJT wanted to stop the Nuclear ambitions before they could be realized, but he also doesn't want to fill the void that's being created.

Iran is going to have to fill its own void.

Which could be better than what's been there since the 70s.

or

It could be worse.

I suspect it'll be difficult to be much worse than what's there now.

 

[OldSolduer]

Is that lady still alive ?

WHo knows but if she is she probably has messy drawers.

I don't feel sorry for her BTW

 

[Retired AF Guy]

lol, like the Israeli's will listen to him. They don't give a f*ck about Trump or what he thinks. They ONLY listen to themselves and do what they believe is right.

Netanyahu accomplished his main mission which was to get the United States involved in the war against Iran. He doesn't need to listen to Trump anymore.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

I think that's the point here. I think the Israelis want to create the void. DJT wanted to stop the Nuclear ambitions before they could be realized, but he also doesn't want to fill the void that's being created.

Iran is going to have to fill its own void.

Which could be better than what's been there since the 70s.

or

It could be worse.

I suspect it'll be difficult to be much worse than what's there now.

There is no strong Islamic organization waiting in the wings there. With the majority of the mosques closed down, the Islamist have lost a lot of their networking abilty. Plus people are utterly sick of them and all their failure. I see a moderate faction supported by the Army being the only viable option at the moment. Then hopefully even the moderate Islamists get pushed out in 20 years.

 

[PrairieFella]

The trick is the rural areas. The regime is overwhelmingly supported amongst the rural and poorly educated (at least on paper). Makes sense, the hinterland are often more religious than the cities.

 

[Quirky]

Trump’s Iran Strike Shows Precisely Why Elections Matter | National Review

Without Donald Trump, this doesn’t happen.

www.nationalreview.com

Some kind words about Trump's decision to bomb Iran's nuclear facilities.

Can you imagine Kamala as the President right now?

Her response to Iran weaponizing nuclear material would be much the same as Bidens:

"Don't"

 

[HavokFour]

Well, one possibility as to why Trump had that very public meltdown.

Exclusive: Early US intel assessment suggests strikes on Iran did not destroy nuclear sites, sources say

The US military strikes on three of Iran’s nuclear facilities last weekend did not destroy the core components of the country’s nuclear program and likely only set it back by months, according to an early US intelligence assessment that was described by four people briefed on it.

&

Tehran will restore its nuclear program, Iranian atomic chief vows

 

[brihard]

Well, one possibility as to why Trump had that very public meltdown.

Exclusive: Early US intel assessment suggests strikes on Iran did not destroy nuclear sites, sources say


&

Tehran will restore its nuclear program, Iranian atomic chief vows

Well, one possibility as to why Trump had that very public meltdown.

Exclusive: Early US intel assessment suggests strikes on Iran did not destroy nuclear sites, sources say


&

Tehran will restore its nuclear program, Iranian atomic chief vows

I wouldn’t be surprised if the U.S./Israel have pretty decent HUMINT, SIGINT, or both that’s contributing to the BDA on the sites hit, as well as on things like like what Iran was doing with its existing stock of enriched Uranium.

It’s nothing we in the public should know, but ‘the powers that be’ probably have a fairly decent idea.

If Iran didn’t already have a stock of replacement centrifuges and other equipment so as to be able to replace enrichment capacity at least to an initially limited degree, I’d be surprised. If they haven’t been tunneling out alternate facilities for years now I’d be amazed.

 

[RangerRay]

I wouldn’t be surprised if the U.S./Israel have pretty decent HUMINT, SIGINT, or both that’s contributing to the BDA on the sites hit, as well as on things like like what Iran was doing with its existing stock of enriched Uranium.

It’s nothing we in the public should know, but ‘the powers that be’ probably have a fairly decent idea.

If Iran didn’t already have a stock of replacement centrifuges and other equipment so as to be able to replace enrichment capacity at least to an initially limited degree, I’d be surprised. If they haven’t been tunneling out alternate facilities for years now I’d be amazed.

So, if reports I heard are correct, Trump used their entire inventory of “Massive Penetrator” (good god!) bombs to only put a dent in their nuclear weapons program.

Well done.

 

[KevinB]

So, if reports I heard are correct, Trump used their entire inventory of “Massive Penetrator” (good god!) bombs to only put a dent in their nuclear weapons program.

Well done.

I would take zero stock in any of those reports.

 

[The Bread Guy]

If you're into the nitty-gritty, tech details, these guys (a techie think tank) have developed an OS BDA of sorts (also attached if link doesn't work for you) ....

Post-Attack Assessment of the First 12 Days of Israeli Strikes on Iranian Nuclear Facilities | ISIS Reports | Institute For Science And International Security

... with the overall conclusion being: looks like lotsa damage, looks like a setback to the program, but the underground infrastructure, still-existing centrifuges and existing uranium stocks could lead to bombs and make things tricky to predict down the road.

That said, as @KevinB and others way smarter than me have already said, the government has access to a lot better data, imagery & information than these guys, and even with that, we only know what the politicians and officials say, not what they've been told.

 

[brihard]

If you're into the nitty-gritty, tech details, these guys (a techie think tank) have developed an OS BDA of sorts (also attached if link doesn't work for you) ....

Post-Attack Assessment of the First 12 Days of Israeli Strikes on Iranian Nuclear Facilities | ISIS Reports | Institute For Science And International Security

... with the overall conclusion being: looks like lotsa damage, looks like a setback to the program, but the underground infrastructure, still-existing centrifuges and existing uranium stocks could lead to bombs and make things tricky to predict down the road.

That said, as @KevinB and others way smarter than me have already said, the government has access to a lot better data, imagery & information than these guys, and even with that, we only know what the politicians and officials say, not what they've been told.

If you trust that the other guy has comms in which they’re honest amongst themselves, it’s tough to beat what they say internally when they don’t think anyone’s listening. This might not mean something as clear cut as intercepting their own BDA. But you might pull indicators from slightly less protected comms from which technical or engineering intentions might be inferred.

 

[The Bread Guy]

If you trust that the other guy has comms in which they’re honest amongst themselves, it’s tough to beat what they say internally when they don’t think anyone’s listening. This might not mean something as clear cut as intercepting their own BDA. But you might pull indicators from slightly less protected comms from which technical or engineering intentions might be inferred.

You're also one of the "smarter than me" people I meant - and given the low bar that requires, to be clear, it's a compliment

 

[KevinB]

If you're into the nitty-gritty, tech details, these guys (a techie think tank) have developed an OS BDA of sorts (also attached if link doesn't work for you) ....

Post-Attack Assessment of the First 12 Days of Israeli Strikes on Iranian Nuclear Facilities | ISIS Reports | Institute For Science And International Security

... with the overall conclusion being: looks like lotsa damage, looks like a setback to the program, but the underground infrastructure, still-existing centrifuges and existing uranium stocks could lead to bombs and make things tricky to predict down the road.

That said, as @KevinB and others way smarter than me have already said, the government has access to a lot better data, imagery & information than these guys, and even with that, we only know what the politicians and officials say, not what they've been told.

I’m a bit of skeptic when it comes to the authors given their previous works and take away.
Neither has much of a background in blast modeling or structure work, and both are former IAEA folks who IMHO tend to downplay enrichment issues.

But they also appear to have been misquoted by the White House

Iran’s Nuclear Facilities Have Been Obliterated — and Suggestions Otherwise are Fake News

The world is far safer after President Donald J. Trump’s highly successful, decisive precision strikes against the Iranian regime’s key nuclear

www.whitehouse.gov

 

[Good2Golf]

If you're into the nitty-gritty, tech details, these guys (a techie think tank) have developed an OS BDA of sorts (also attached if link doesn't work for you) ....
Post-Attack Assessment of the First 12 Days of Israeli Strikes on Iranian Nuclear Facilities | ISIS Reports | Institute For Science And International Security ... with the overall conclusion being: looks like lotsa damage, looks like a setback to the program, but the underground infrastructure, still-existing centrifuges and existing uranium stocks could lead to bombs and make things tricky to predict down the road.

People saying something effectively like ‘other than what we can’t see to confirm, there’s minimal damage that can’t otherwise be repaired’ is like…

“Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the rest of the play?”

 

[The Bread Guy]

I’m a bit of skeptic when it comes to the authors given their previous works and take away.
Neither has much of a background in blast modeling or structure work, and both are former IAEA folks who IMHO tend to downplay enrichment issues.

Thx for the rest of the story.

But they also appear to have been misquoted by the White House

Iran’s Nuclear Facilities Have Been Obliterated — and Suggestions Otherwise are Fake News

The world is far safer after President Donald J. Trump’s highly successful, decisive precision strikes against the Iranian regime’s key nuclear

www.whitehouse.gov

Good catch! It might be the Pres of ISIS was fed a quote & he okay’ed it (something government info machines do), or the Gov’t … tweaked the quote they got? Or could be other reasons for the boss’s quote not lining up with the team’s assessment