2025 U.S. - Venezuela conflict

[Cloud Cover]

The thing about these strikes is that if Trump gets a further notion about drug smuggling and drug production from here, he’s going to start threatening to do the same to Pajeet and Iqbal in the fentanyl precursor supply labs situated on Indian reserves up here in BC.
I know many in Canada still hold a false notion that the juice isn’t worth the squeeze up here, but everybody knows the Canadian and especially the BC government has let this get out of control domestically.

There is very little room for doubt concerning British Columbia having a substantial narco economy, and that it’s foreign controlled, and that’s it primarily East Asian and Chinese in nature, with a heavy infusion of Russian oligarchy. There’s no other explanation for so much unexplained wealth, and that First Nations enterprise is being used to launder most of their cash. It’s practically common knowledge in the interior.


But at least we aren’t next on the list… a different Colombia is.

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/venezuela-explosions-caracas-intl-hnk-01-03-26?post-id=cmjym03hx00053b60jxmwbpri

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

Regardless of how FUBARed the world is now.... this made me laugh:

https://twitter.com/x/status/2007398586246672723

 

[Cloud Cover]

Looks like he’s wearing body armour …

 

[Good2Golf]

I will be waiting patiently for those who have defended this because Maduro’s election was illegitimate to come back and offer their insight and revised opinions now that Trump has excluded the popular opposition and is empowering Maduro’s own vice president. I’m sure the takes will be rational, principled, nuanced, and consistent.

And why it was different than recently-pardoned Honduran ex-President Hernández.

 

[QV]

With Alberta’s oil exports a major contribution to Canada’s economic engine and economic survival, Canada best make haste on the ability to export off the coasts. If what some of you are suggesting, that the US could be just playing to the eventual economic demise of Canada, what is Canada doing to mitigate that risk? I have not seen any meaningful movement to suggest a “team Canada” approach to thwart that yet…

 

[Oldgateboatdriver]

Looks like he’s wearing body armour …

I would if I was him.

 

[PrairieFella]

Hey remember how Panama, Iraq and Grenada all became American colonies? Yeah me neither. They Americans dropped whoop ass, and those countries are doing better today.

You say that like Noreiga wasnt installed by the Americans in the first place lol

 

[Altair]

Any meaningful improvement in Venezuela's net oil exports will probably be a few years. Their infrastructure is shambolic. We do have some time.

The big change will be that rather than selling a bunch of it under the table to shadow fleets at probably a fairly steep discount, we'll probably simply see all of Venezuela's exports diverted to the open market but under control of US companies. Don't forget that Chevron already legally exports some Venezuelan oil under an arrangement between the two countries.

I fully expect no meaningful amount of that money will go back to the Venezuelans. Trump will make the most out of the purported claim to Venezuela's oil wealth to offset what was nationalized decades ago. I fully expect the US will also lay claim to an entitlement to the value of the profits they will argue they would have made since then too.

Venezuela exports 1m bpd. 15 percent of that goes to the USA via chevron.

Canada exports 4m bpd to the USA, if my quick search is accurate.

So if all Venezuelan prodoction goes to the USA, at a cheaper price than Canada, that's already a massive undercut of Alberta crude.

And every year that Venezuela increased production, that undercut gets bigger and bigger. Venezuela has the potential to replace Canadian heavy crude within the decade.

Alberta had better get a move on.

 

[OldSolduer]

I think you may be making a series of assumptions here. However, the Trump admin has shown it will use conjecture & imagination to justify various sorts of behaviours. So I agree that all countries in the Americas should be concerned about a now more likely US military violations of sovereignty.

Agreed. Lets be concerned but not go overboard.

 

[PrairieFella]

Yeah, its one thing to go after a dictator but what happens when he starts going after democratic governments?

The one to watch will be colombia. He's been using very similar rhetoric about the colombian president but the colombians are regional allies and partners of much of the west.

 

[Altair]

With Alberta’s oil exports a major contribution to Canada’s economic engine and economic survival, Canada best make haste on the ability to export off the coasts. If what some of you are suggesting, that the US could be just playing to the eventual economic demise of Canada, what is Canada doing to mitigate that risk? I have not seen any meaningful movement to suggest a “team Canada” approach to thwart that yet…

the oil industry, all of it, not just Albertas, makes up 4 percent of the Canadian economy. It makes up 20 percent of Albertas economy.

The onus is on Alberta at this point, Canada would survive. Alberta would not.

 

[brihard]

Venezuela exports 1m bpd. 15 percent of that goes to the USA via chevron.

Canada exports 4m bpd to the USA, if my quick search is accurate.

So if all Venezuelan prodoction goes to the USA, at a cheaper price than Canada, that's already a massive undercut of Alberta crude.

And every year that Venezuela increased production, that undercut gets bigger and bigger. Venezuela has the potential to replace Canadian heavy crude within the decade.

Alberta had better get a move on.

Either a fully private consortium or a public-private partnership needs to bring an actual viable project to the table quickly here.

 

[PrairieFella]

Give him time. He's mused about taking Panama back'. He just said Cuba is a failed state and needs his attention. Let's not forget Greenland. He's only one man; give him time.

If I was Denmark Id be talking with the EU to put a couple multinational battalions in Greenland along with a bunch Euro AA systems. Theyll never be used but it sends a signal of resolve.

 

[PPCLI Guy]

I will believe that about as quick as I believe he will actually invade or attack us.

Cuba is a failed state.

Rubio actually said that it is a failed state because it is run by "senile incompetent men".

More projection

 

[Altair]

Either a fully private consortium or a public-private partnership needs to bring an actual viable project to the table quickly here.

The cost overrun of Transmountain probably gave many private investors cold feet.

The MOU made it clear Carney doesn't want to own a pipeline like transmountain, which is smart.

I think Alberta is going to need to put its money where their mouth is, and create a public company to get this done fast. I don't think they can wait for the private sector to step up. And I thought this before the USA just seized Venezuela.

 

[QV]

the oil industry, all of it, not just Albertas, makes up 4 percent of the Canadian economy. It makes up 20 percent of Albertas economy.

The onus is on Alberta at this point, Canada would survive. Alberta would not.

If Alberta collapses while a part of confederation and becomes destitute, and then following that the US offers massive economic improvements to join, what are a people to do? Canada has a choice and holds the cards right now.

 

[ytz]

It is going to be at least a decade for infrastructure and extraction capacities to catch up after the collapse of oil prices in 2014 and poor management fucked their oil industry.

Who is going to fund all that?

And where are they going to get the people? All the skilled when is Venezuelan oil engineers move to Alberta.

 

[MilEME09]

the oil industry, all of it, not just Albertas, makes up 4 percent of the Canadian economy. It makes up 20 percent of Albertas economy.

The onus is on Alberta at this point, Canada would survive. Alberta would not.

Huge majority of corporate taxes and revanue are from O&G in AB, if America shut off the taps/bought less, if the recession in AB would be devastating

 

[Altair]

If Alberta collapses while a part of confederation and becomes destitute, and then following that the US offers massive economic improvements to join, what are a people to do? Canada has a choice and holds the cards right now.

Canada already owns and operates a pipeline.

Alberta can step up this time. As for a province losing their main industry and becoming destitute, well, thankfully there is equalization.

 

[Altair]

Huge majority of corporate taxes and revanue are from O&G in AB, if America shut off the taps/bought less, if the recession in AB would be devastating

Thank goodness for equalization.