Iran Super Thread- Merged

[HavokFour]

2.5 kg
20 of them
8 km radius
8x8 = 64
3,14 *64 = 200 km2
200 / 20 = 1 grenade per 10 km2

An 81mm round weighs about 4 kg with a blast radius of 35 m
A 60 mm round weighs about 1.2 to 2 kg with a blast radius of 25 m

Call it one mortar round in 10 grid squares?

Ideal for terrorizing civilians.

Russia does something similar with long range drones carrying tear gas and/or accelerant.

 

[Kirkhill]

Ideal for terrorizing civilians.

Russia does something similar with long range drones carrying tear gas and/or accelerant.

Judging from the Isrsaelis driving around with all the downtown lights on it doesn't seem to be having the intended effect.

 

[FSTO]

Shaheds should not be getting through… But Shaheds are getting through. Naval Support Activity Bahrain has taken at least one solid hit, and likely more.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2027729438146797665

https://twitter.com/x/status/2027791068763197852

Various presumable ‘misses’ have struck civilian areas including the Fairmonthotel at Dubai palms, and something near the Burj Khalifa tower. Kuwait International Airport terminal took a hit.

Way too much info coming in to have a great sense of what all is happening, but Iran is definitely shooting lots back.

Still no clarity on the status of Ayatollah Khamenei. He has not yet made his promised TV address, but were I him I wouldn’t be sticking my head up anywhere either.

I was with CMF at 5th Fleet in 21. That looks like it was close to the ball diamond that was beside our building.

 

[brihard]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2027760809258934744

 

[Czech_pivo]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2027760809258934744

Be fearful when others are greedy - Be greedy when others are fearful.

 

[NavyShooter]

What I've been seeing on the "MIRV not MIRV" object accompanying the main warhead are that they are basically penetration aids - designed to mask the real warhead amidst the cloud of others.

Shooting down the actual warhead could now take a complete battery worth of SAMs, and most would be wasted against the small mortar bomb sized warheads.

 

[KevinB]

2.5 kg
20 of them
8 km radius
8x8 = 64
3,14 *64 = 200 km2
200 / 20 = 1 grenade per 10 km2

I think he’s using radius in a total area stand point, like blast radius or damage radius is done / not as in radius of a circle.

An 81mm round weighs about 4 kg with a blast radius of 35 m
A 60 mm round weighs about 1.2 to 2 kg with a blast radius of 25 m

Call it one mortar round in 10 grid squares?

See my above.

 

[KevinB]

What I've been seeing on the "MIRV not MIRV" object accompanying the main warhead are that they are basically penetration aids - designed to mask the real warhead amidst the cloud of others.

Shooting down the actual warhead could now take a complete battery worth of SAMs, and most would be wasted against the small mortar bomb sized warheads.

In the video I posted it’s simply a cluster bomb rocket. There is no main warhead - it’s just the carrier ‘shell’. Inert / but large enough to fall and damage things.

 

[HavokFour]

The Burj Khalifa being targeted was the final straw.

UAE closes embassy in Tehran, withdraws all members of diplomatic mission

The Iranian attacks constituted

www.khaleejtimes.com

 

[Cloud Cover]

I can’t stand the guy, but I did laugh out loud at this…

 

[Kirkhill]

I think he’s using radius in a total area stand point, like blast radius or damage radius is done / not as in radius of a circle.


See my above.

The way I took it was, given the high altitude release point and the fact that he seemed to be talking about a cargo of 20 submunitions weighing 2.5 kg apiece, then it seemed unlikely that 8 km was the blast radius.

It seemed more likely that he was effectively talking about scattering 20 unguided light to medium mortar rounds over a circle with an 8 km radius. That would be a 200 km2 circle with 20 mortar bombs in it. Militarily ineffective I would think.

 

[Kirkhill]

I can’t stand the guy, but I did laugh out loud at this…

View attachment 98716

Pure Don King!

 

[Kirkhill]

Very hard to say. Regime change through air power only would be unprecedented though.

I don't think people get the scale of this.

Japan in 1945: 72M
Iran in 2025: 92M



Means nothing. How much fire control do they have over the strait. That's the question.



That's not a radar dome. It's a satellite link. You don't put a massive radar in a settled area. Unless you want to cook the neighbours.

Gotta kill a substantial majority of these guys to even have a chance at regime change.

Assembly of Experts - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

And I don't think they are going to pull it off. No Iranian will take to the street unless they see a significant part of the regime apparatus dismantled.

Time is a (tiny) flat circle. Statues of Supreme Leader are getting torn down.

It would, indeed, be unprecedented.

Let's see what the next week or two brings.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Don't forget, a large chunk of the population wants their heads as well, loss of leadership, isolation and abilty to coordinate, giving the people the chance to tear them apart from below.

 

[OldSolduer]

Don't forget, a large chunk of the population wants their heads as well, loss of leadership, isolation and abilty to coordinate, giving the people the chance to tear them apart from below.

Nature also abhors a vacuum. This might not turn out like we want it too

 

[daftandbarmy]

Iran inspired mass shooting … in Texas:

At least 2 dead, 14 injured in Texas bar shooting - National | Globalnews.ca

The FBI's Joint Terrorism Task Force is working with the Austin Police Department on the investigation, according to the agency's acting special agent in charge.

globalnews.ca

 

[HavokFour]

Cyprus is seeing drones now.

RAF base in Cyprus 'is hit by Iranian drone': MoD confirms blast

Strong explosions were heard at the British RAF Akrotiri base in Limassol at around midnight local time after a 'security threat' was declared.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[Seyek]

Looks like the majority of the Iranian service fleet may now have been deleted. Best I can confirm is that these are not AI generated but come from a reputable geospatial intelligence firm.

-snip tweets-

The frigates were probably the least important part of Iran's navy. I'm more curious what they've been doing in regards to naval drones. They already lots of speedboats they could convert over and the capacity to build more. Could see Ukraine style strikes against mil and civilian targets in the coming days.

I'm also curious if they try to use their drone carrier for anything, of it's been abandoned as well.

With what has gotten through, Zelenskyy is now advertising Ukraine's expertise they've accumulated over the last 4 years to Europe.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2028198338718232991

I only have some short video clips from the internet to go off of, but it does seem like a couple US and allied installations were remarkably vulnerable to drone strikes. That said I haven no idea how many were actually launched or intercepted, and there may very well have been a robust plan to defend these locations and we're just seeing the odd one that gets through.

The IRGC is going to see how much their investment in sleeper cells and proxies is going to pay off. I suspect a lot of sleeper cells are going to think "Ya, maybe not, I got a good life here"

Extortion, ransom, trafficking (people, drugs, weapons, other contraband as your situation dictates/religion allows) can help make up for pay cheques. Intelligence, weapons and specialist support is a different matter.


The LUCAS, aka, American Shahed has been confirmed as being used in the strikes but no details about how many, targets, effectiveness, etc.

 

[ytz]

It would, indeed, be unprecedented.

Let's see what the next week or two brings.

Given that this is the guy running the show.....

https://twitter.com/x/status/2028345531798364571

 

[ytz]

Reported blue on blue. Crews safe. 3x US F-15E

https://www.nbcnews.com/world/middl...lebanon-khamenei-trump-rcna261259#rcrd102394?