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The RCAF's Next Generation Fighter (CF-188 Replacement)

German elbows decidedly down.


France playing nice with Jared's Dad.


And Starmer, Albanese and Carney have decided they, like Saudi and the UAE are for the war though they were against the war.

....

A bit of turbulence in the rear view mirror.
 
There are rumours circulating that the Feb 2 fuselage signing ceremony for Canada's first F-35 was specifically kept low key and photos will not be released by the Govt/Lockheed Martin due to concerns that their publication will undercut the ongoing fighter review in the eyes of the public. If it is indeed true, it does not bode well for future F-35 orders if we are walking on egg shells to such a degree all the way up to such a high level.......
 
There are rumours circulating that the Feb 2 fuselage signing ceremony for Canada's first F-35 was specifically kept low key and photos will not be released by the Govt/Lockheed Martin due to concerns that their publication will undercut the ongoing fighter review in the eyes of the public. If it is indeed true, it does not bode well for future F-35 orders if we are walking on egg shells to such a degree all the way up to such a high level.......
The answer is LocMart needs to make a HIMARS plant in Oshawa...
 
The answer is LocMart needs to make a HIMARS plant in Oshawa...

Can we get a manned version of the CAMML-M?

Common to all munitions for air and surface targets

(Autonomous option/future)

Multi-Domain (all services, all targets)

Missile Launcher

Medium based on a 6x6 truck in the 5 to 10 tonne range that is C130 transportable and can carry 2 pods like the MLRS and Chun Moo.

A battery's worth at least for each regiment, Reg and Res, for both GBAD and LRPF.
 
What risk co-efficient you talkin' 'bout?

From the article:

Citing confidential sources, the Swedish business publication Affarsvarlden reported that Ottawa added a risk coefficient to its analysis that significantly undermined the Gripen’s test scores because it was still a new series aircraft.

First of all, I always find the ubiquitous "confidential sources" to be a funny addition, doubly so when its a Swedish business publication bringing back out the sour grapes given how their darling aircraft was absolutely blown out of the comparison between itself and the F-35. Secondly, I'm not sure why they are getting bent out of shape because the Gripen E/F absolutely was a "new series aircraft" at the time. It was an unproven, heavily modified and redesigned version of the older C/D models. Trying to put it forward as simply a variant is disingenuous and the RCAF was entirely in the right to dock it points for such a reason if they did indeed do so. This is doubly relevant when Saab has very few partner nations to assist them in testing, development and future upgrades to the E/F, in comparison to something like the F-35 which is backed by the US military and countless other NATO partners with deep pockets.

Alex McColl, who wrote his 2018 master’s thesis calling for Canada to buy a Gripen fleet, said the partial leak of the scoring doesn’t tell the full story.

“There was no explanation of how the scores were made. There was no highlighting of any risk deduction. I believe that the low score is explained by the risk deduction,” he said.

McColl obtained documents in 2020 that showed how the government was drafting its evaluation scenarios, which he said he believes would have favoured the F-35.
Citing Alex McColl, King of Gripen media talkheads in the article is frankly laughable. Long time followers of the Gripen vs F-35 debate know him and he's still prattling along about his favorite jet in 2026. He really needs to move onto greener pastures at this point, unless the Saab pay cheques are too appealing.
 
To be fair, the Super Hornet was being promoted as basically the same as a CF18 when it was under consideration.

Every manufacturer will make every claim even remotely grounded in reality to try to close the deal.
The Super Hornet at least was fielded by the USN at that point and not solely a potential aircraft on CAD loosely based on a previous airframe from the company.

Hey the old MDD crew used the CA’s C3 to C3A1 analogy when they pitched the Super Hornet to the USN and USMC. It’s just an ECP if you keep some screws and small pieces right?
 
Noah's latest newsletter has the latest RUMINT on Canada's next fighter:

A choice on the Fighter Review has apparently been made internally. Usually I won't report this rumor, but this time seems like there is enough renewed interest. Rumor is that CUSMA negotiations could still change it, but there seems to be a lot of lock on a dual fleet. Take with a grain of salt.

My emphasis.
 
I’m not saying that is the best choice to make. But it is likely the most balanced choice between politics, capability and dealing with the crack house under our apartment.
When the response to the crack house under your apartment is to become roommates with the military industrial complex equivalent of one of those guys trying to sell you a get rich quick scheme in your social media DM's, I have serious questions about the competency of the person making the decisions.
 
When the response to the crack house under your apartment is to become roommates with the military industrial complex equivalent of one of those guys trying to sell you a get rich quick scheme in your social media DM's, I have serious questions about the competency of the person making the decisions.
A Gripen fleet will cripple the RCAF for decades to come. An aircraft the Air Force doesn’t want or need.
 
A Gripen fleet will cripple the RCAF for decades to come. An aircraft the Air Force doesn’t want or need.
The only other reasonable option for a dual fleet is the F-15EX which is also made here.

IMHO Canada should be trying to figure out what LocMart can offer for production in Canada for secondary production of items.
I’d suggest HIMARS, and a variety of rockets and missiles.
 
The only other reasonable option for a dual fleet is the F-15EX which is also made here.

IMHO Canada should be trying to figure out what LocMart can offer for production in Canada for secondary production of items.
I’d suggest HIMARS, and a variety of rockets and missiles.
Or,
They take the 88, scrap HIMARS altogether, go with Chunmoo's produced in Canada, along with K9's and Redback's and hitch our wagon to the UK/Japan next gen fighters. Play the long game.

Get domestic production for heavy/light torpedoes, rocket and mobile artillery and new tracked IFV's and in the 10-15yr mark, more domestic next gen fighters.
 
Or,
They take the 88, scrap HIMARS altogether, go with Chunmoo's produced in Canada, along with K9's and Redback's and hitch our wagon to the UK/Japan next gen fighters. Play the long game.

Get domestic production for heavy/light torpedoes, rocket and mobile artillery and new tracked IFV's and in the 10-15yr mark, more domestic next gen fighters.
Because the best idea when facing the most vindicative and petty administration in recent history who is controlling your largest military/trading partner is to rip up your existing contracts, shun the existing Canadian subsidiaries and send our money overseas? Especially when we're on the cusp of a key trade agreement negotiation with said party.

Not sure if I agree with that at all, especially when much of these alternate systems listed are either sub-optimal or unwanted by the various forces who will operate them.
 
Or,
They take the 88, scrap HIMARS altogether, go with Chunmoo's produced in Canada, along with K9's and Redback's and hitch our wagon to the UK/Japan next gen fighters. Play the long game.

Get domestic production for heavy/light torpedoes, rocket and mobile artillery and new tracked IFV's and in the 10-15yr mark, more domestic next gen fighters.
10-15 yrs is a stretch for a domestic (even under licensed) fighter, let alone a Gen6.

HIMARS is still the gold standard, with orders stretching into the middle of the next decade . Creating a second site for production in Canada offers a lot more marketability, as well as a national munitions production facility for it would be significantly more useful.

I agree on the K9, but I think a BAE partnership for the IFV would be better in the long run.

Canada needs domestic production, and needs to ensure it is getting Chickens from the US, UK/Europe and Korea to sell eggs into multiple baskets.
 
Because the best idea when facing the most vindicative and petty administration in recent history who is controlling your largest military/trading partner is to rip up your existing contracts, shun the existing Canadian subsidiaries and send our money overseas? Especially when we're on the cusp of a key trade agreement negotiation with said party.

Not sure if I agree with that at all, especially when much of these alternate systems listed are either sub-optimal or unwanted by the various forces who will operate them.
Not sure I follow your argument. I clearly said to keep the 88 F35's but to move to joining the UK/Japan next gen fighter project going forward. The US has clearly said that there next gen fighter won't be available to its Allies. so either way Canada will have to go elsewhere for the F35 replacement.

A number of people on here have said that the HIMARS is being slow walked on the US side. My suggestion is to swap out HIMARS for Chunmoo, which has been selected by a number of our NATO allies already. The SK's have shown interest in producing them here, that's a known fact. Has LM made any similar statements on producing HIMARS in Canada? What makes you think that the 'most vindicative and petty administration in recent history' would allow LM to produce HIMARS in Canada? You are of the belief that keeping the 25billion CAD contract for 88 F35's vs scrapping the 2.4billion CAD for the HIMARS would be that disastrous for Canada?

As for the production of light/heavy torpedoes within Canada, both the SK's and Germans have proposed this, what's your issue with that?

The K9 has been selected by a number of NATO and non-NATO allies already and is being produced in a number of those countries as well. it's also the only piece of equipment that can operate in 1m of snow, of which Canada currently seems to have alot of. A number of people on here have stated previously that the speed requirement added to the RFP was specifically geared towards a specific wheeled competitor.

Lastly adding the Redback, produced within Canada, would be such a bad thing for what reasons? The LAV can be continued to be used by the Reserves going forward.
 
HIMARS is still the gold standard, with orders stretching into the middle of the next decade . Creating a second site for production in Canada offers a lot more marketability, as well as a national munitions production facility for it would be significantly more useful.

I agree on the K9, but I think a BAE partnership for the IFV would be better in the long run.

Canada needs domestic production, and needs to ensure it is getting Chickens from the US, UK/Europe and Korea to sell eggs into multiple baskets.
It might be the gold standard but why do you believe that the US (Trump) would agree to set up a new production set in Canada vs setting up a new one in the US? What's the advantage to this in Trump's way of thinking? The value of our HIMARS contract is roughly 2.4 billion CAD. The value of our 88 F35's is 25+billion CAD. Which of these do you think LM and/or Trump would place a higher value on?

The rough value that Canadian companies get on the F35 is about 3$ million per plane. We've been asking for a larger piece of this pie but have been consistently stonewalled on this. Trump has ordered LM to 'onshore' as much as possible the manufacturing on the F35 that is not occurring in the US. If LM was able to move that 3$ million per plane of Canadian content up to say 4-4.5million (a 50% increase), I'd be willing to bet that Carney would spin that as a win for Canada and would move forward with the 88 contract.

How long will the backlog of HIMARS missiles be after this open ended war against Iran finally wraps up?
 
Not sure I follow your argument. I clearly said to keep the 88 F35's but to move to joining the UK/Japan next gen fighter project going forward. The US has clearly said that there next gen fighter won't be available to its Allies. so either way Canada will have to go elsewhere for the F35 replacement.
I don't think it is an especially wise or financially prudent idea to look at a 6th generation fighter for the RCAF anytime soon, particularly if we do infact get a full F-35 order. That kind of fleet will be relevant and very capable for many decades, which is going to be required for all of these vapourware and troublesome 6th gen programs to prove themselves worthy of serious consideration by the RCAF. We should be focusing on the F-35 and domestically produced drone wingmen escorts to bulk the combat capability of the force.

A number of people on here have said that the HIMARS is being slow walked on the US side. My suggestion is to swap out HIMARS for Chunmoo, which has been selected by a number of our NATO allies already. The SK's have shown interest in producing them here, that's a known fact. Has LM made any similar statements on producing HIMARS in Canada? What makes you think that the 'most vindicative and petty administration in recent history' would allow LM to produce HIMARS in Canada? You are of the belief that keeping the 25billion CAD contract for 88 F35's vs scrapping the 2.4billion CAD for the HIMARS would be that disastrous for Canada?
I have no interest in Chunmoo because it is unsuitable for our requirements, hence it losing to the HIMARS. One of the primary selling points of HIMARS is its mobility and the ridiculous array of very capable weapons it currently has and is actively being developed, including items like increasingly capable guided munitions and especially anti-ship missiles. Chunmoo does not have access to these weapons and in all likelihood will not in the future, we'd be stuck with sub-par Korean systems that currently don't exist or are in development. Chunmoo also doesn't have the mobility we are looking for without taking into consideration the paper truck mounted version, which I am skeptical about. I personally don't really care about trying to force LM to build trucks and missile tubes in Canada, there really isn't much value in producing the systems themselves. If we were talking about the munitions I think that is different however, the build part of the contract isn't especially worthwhile.

I think actively scrapping the most capable system in its class with the best munitions options in favour of an alternative in a time of political tensions and a major trade negotiation is very poor political form, and actively hurts the CAF capability wise.

There has been talk about HIMARS being slow walked, but nothing has actually backed this up anywhere besides the rumour mill in a very anti-US political atmosphere.

As for the production of light/heavy torpedoes within Canada, both the SK's and Germans have proposed this, what's your issue with that?

The K9 has been selected by a number of NATO and non-NATO allies already and is being produced in a number of those countries as well. it's also the only piece of equipment that can operate in 1m of snow, of which Canada currently seems to have alot of. A number of people on here have stated previously that the speed requirement added to the RFP was specifically geared towards a specific wheeled competitor.

Lastly adding the Redback, produced within Canada, would be such a bad thing for what reasons? The LAV can be continued to be used by the Reserves going forward.
I do not have an issue with producing torpedoes in Canada at all. I do have issues with producing K9 as presumably bringing in Hanwha to build a tracked system we have no interest in (or a slow, wheeled truck based system we also do not want) will be actively taking work away from GDLS Canada, who is already established with a substantial workforce, facility and capability in Canada who seems to be basically ear marked as the winner for the artillery procurement at this point. Given the largely European deployment focus for the program as well, I am not particularly moved by the idea we're going to be using these systems in the North and thus need to have them tracked?

I have issues just handing the contract off to Redback when we have a seemingly very competitive program that has a lot of platforms who are offering something similar to what the Koreans are giving us. Turning around and entirely opening our wallet to a single partner in Asia seems very sub-optimal to me, especially when we expect much of this equipment to be stationed in Europe and must be workable/interoperable with our allies forces there.
 
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