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Iran Super Thread- Merged

Per the Turkish version of CBC. The Americans may have began attacks on energy and water infrastructure despite Trump's tweets. Grain of salt alert - Im unsure abouth the reliability of AA. Ive also seen videos coming out on social media purporting to show these attacks in Ishafan.


Further, 82nd Airborne being sent to the Middle East.

 
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Trump: Iran gave US a present worth a ton of money, related to oil, gas and Hormuz


Asked by reporters in the Oval Office why he trusts the Iranians, he first insists that he doesn’t trust anyone before revealing, “They did something yesterday that was amazing — they gave us a present… that arrived today.”

“It was a very big present worth a tremendous amount of money, and I’m not going to tell you what that present is, but it was a very significant prize,” Trump says.

If they're actually talking to someone, that person has made some lofty promises that they may or may not be able to provide.

But I also have to wonder what was actually said, because Trump is known to both exaggerate and has "it came to me in a dream" situations before.
 

Trump: Iran gave US a present worth a ton of money, related to oil, gas and Hormuz




If they're actually talking to someone, that person has made some lofty promises that they may or may not be able to provide.

But I also have to wonder what was actually said, because Trump is known to both exaggerate and has "it came to me in a dream" situations before.
Well came in a dream is the driving force behind Islam claim to Jerusalem, so dreamer can have long lasting effects.
 
Per the Turkish version of CBC. The Americans may have began attacks on energy and water infrastructure despite Trump's tweets. Grain of salt alert - Im unsure abouth the reliability of AA. Ive also seen videos coming out on social media purporting to show these attacks in Ishafan.

AA should be considered closer to VOA than CBC re: direct government influence. Their source, though, IRN's Fars News Agency, is under U.S. sanctions and considered IRGC controlled/influenced, or at least a semi-official IRN government news agency - usual Wikipedia caveats apply:
So the usual grain of salt used with any IRN government statement should be applied.
 
48km from the coast limits what sort of drone attacks the IRGC can do. Has a now damaged port and airfield. But those can be repaired quickly. My guess is to place HIMARs and some AD to supplement the aircraft carriers which are beginning to cycle off to restock and rest. With only about 3,000 pointy end troops in the region, well within their capability to seize and hold. If they do that, I expect raids on the other islands to seize , destroy/kill IRGC assets and then withdraw and monitor.

I am also seeing reports/rumours that IRGC members have not been paid in 2 months.
 
Sleeping beauties....

Sleeper cells are lurking in the UK — experts reveal how worried we should be​


An underground network of Iranian sleeper cells poses an unlikely but credible threat to the UK, defense and security experts have told Metro.

The warning comes as British Iranians told us efforts to recruit them are commonplace when they visit Iran.

While highly unlikely, analysts say opponents of the Iranian regime and Britain’s Jewish community would be the most probable targets of hostile spying operations in the UK.

War between Israel and Iran erupted last week after Israel attacked Iranian cities and nuclear sites. In the early hours of Sunday, Donald Trump changed the face of the conflict by ordering US strikes on three of Iran’s key nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz and Esfahan.

A ceasefire between Israel and Iran has since been confirmed, denied, and confirmed again by senior figures in both administrations — though Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has yet to acknowledge it.

Now, many are wondering what comes next, and whether it’s possible that the conflict could reach these shores.

Metro spoke to leading university academics and British-Iranians about reports that Iran could call on a network of ‘sleeper agents’ to target the West.

What are sleeper cells?​

Sleeper agents are spies who are living seemingly normal lives until they are ordered to act. Together, they form a cell.

Two members of the Iranian community in London have said efforts to hire agents for underground activity are common.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, both said these efforts are often refused.

B, 34, said: ‘They interrogate you in semi-friendly conditions.

‘They take you somewhere and potentially hold your passport until you talk with them. Then they ask you to perform some tasks for Iran.

As to the purpose of sleeper cells, B said: ‘[The Iranian government] are quite interested in curbing any outside operations opposed to the regime which could have threats to the national security to Iran.’

Another man, who came to the UK after the Iranian revolution that overthrew the Shah in 1979, agreed: ‘They don’t treat you badly. They may threaten some people, but usually they look friendly.

‘There have been reports of people saying “No, I do not want to do that”.’

Security lecturer Dr Andreas Krieg pointed to the Basij, Iran’s paramilitary volunteer militia, as a way to get agents in the UK.

He said some of the million strong civilian network have come to the UK and have been ‘curated’ to spy on Iranian dissidents.

 
The main risk from sleepers:

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I wonder why Tunb other that perhaps to restore the UAE claim to the islands?

It is a bit farther offshore so a bit safer, but I wonder how it fits into their campaign plan… Maybe a littoral FOB?
It could well be a quid pro quo for UAE, given that:

UAE National Security Adviser Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan reportedly purchased a 49% stake in World Liberty Financial, a cryptocurrency company linked to Donald Trump, just before his 2025 inauguration
 
It could well be a quid pro quo for UAE, given that:

UAE National Security Adviser Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan reportedly purchased a 49% stake in World Liberty Financial, a cryptocurrency company linked to Donald Trump, just before his 2025 inauguration

An apology island, many such cases.

"Sorry we got your LNG facility blown up. Please don't pull your investments. :giggle:"
 
UAE and Saudi seem to be burying the hatchet, at least for now to unite against the current threat and are worried if the US does a half-assed job, they will leave the IRGC to hold the Straits hostage for a long time. So now they are all in for regime change as the lesser evil (In their eyes).
 
UAE and Saudi seem to be burying the hatchet, at least for now to unite against the current threat and are worried if the US does a half-assed job, they will leave the IRGC to hold the Straits hostage for a long time. So now they are all in for regime change as the lesser evil (In their eyes).
With the quality of their militaries...could be a total disaster
 
Another twist. Iran will not negotiate with Witkoff or Kushner, but only JD Vance.



EDIT: Israel also may have a few concerns.


President Trump is interested in winding down the war, but Iran's chokehold on the Gulf of Hormuz complicates any potential exit strategy. The U.S. has shared with Israel its 15-point plan to end the war and claimed Iran had agreed to many of the key points. There's been no tangible evidence of any such agreement.
  • Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is concerned Trump might strike a deal that falls well short of Israel's objectives, includes significant concessions and limits Israel's ability to conduct strikes against Iran, two Israeli sources say.
  • A third source said Israeli leaders were skeptical Iran had actually offered the concessions the U.S. claimed.
  • Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Tuesday that while many of Iran's leaders are gone, the U.S. "is talking to the right people, and they want to make a deal badly."
 
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