Iran Super Thread- Merged

[brihard]

It's not a perfect hedge. Obviously the refinery still has to pay for crude. What it was meant to be was reduce the premium and wild swings Delta paid for Jet fuel specifically. And I believe it meets something like 40-50% of their domestic fuel requirements.

Trainer Refinery - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The net effect right now is only 15%. But it's 15% their competitors don't have:

Why This Airline Is Actually Earning $300 Million From Higher Fuel Costs

Delta’s refinery turns a fuel shock into a rare competitive advantage worth $300 million.

simpleflying.com

There’s no such thing as a perfect hedge.

Except for my absolutely effing neurotic neighbours three doors down. The way she looks at the garden is frighteningly intense. He looks kinda defeated actually, now that I think about it.

Sorry. Yeah. Buy refineries. I’m also considering it if I can get the financing figured out.

 

[ytz]

It's actually scary looking at futures in to September. The market is in full denial this lasts. I wonder when paper and reality converge. Or when the Iranian economy collapses.

 

[Altair]

It's actually scary looking at futures in to September. The market is in full denial this lasts. I wonder when paper and reality converge. Or when the Iranian economy collapses.

Currently a war of attrition between the American consumer and the average everyday economic situation of the ordinary Iranian and I have no idea who's going to last longer.

 

[HavokFour]

Sounding like the not-war may be back on. UAE targeted with multiple missiles and drones and at least 2 ships in the last 24 hours have been attacked.

There's currently a big fire at the petrochemical facility in Fujairah attributed to a drone strike.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2051320742726566284

 

[ytz]

Iran trying to get the economic pain for the US moving faster than they run out of money.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Sounding like the not-war may be back on. UAE targeted with multiple missiles and drones and at least 2 ships in the last 24 hours have been attacked.

There's currently a big fire at the petrochemical facility in Fujairah attributed to a drone strike.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2051320742726566284

Interesting that its crossed LE No.4s in that graphic.

 

[HavokFour]

Interesting that its crossed LE No.4s in that graphic.

The Trucial States were a British protectorate from 1892 up until 1971 when they became the UAE.

 

[ytz]

Hitting Fujairah is an ouch for sure. I wonder if we're going to be at $200 oil in time for the 250th celebrations in the US.

 

[QV]

Maybe in the nearish future the US/VEN/Canada will be exporting more oil than the Gulf. Good for the US, Canada, and everyone that wants a stable supply of O&G. Very bad for Iran and other Gulf states that might not play nice.

 

[ytz]

Maybe in the nearish future the US/VEN/Canada will be exporting more oil than the Gulf. Good for the US, Canada, and everyone that wants a stable supply of O&G. Very bad for Iran and other Gulf states that might not play nice.

You should be far more worried about what this conflict is teaching importers of energy about their vulnerabilities....

 

[QV]

Don't rely on dictator energy supplies which includes non-O&G materials and components?

Or were you going with something to the tune of getting off O&G and going to an alternative energy with a China supply chain?

 

[Brad Sallows]

You should be far more worried about what this conflict is teaching importers of energy about their vulnerabilities....

Why worry? Trump has done in a couple of months what three decades of climate alarmist eco-zealotry failed to achieve. Reducing fossil fuel use is (supposedly) a good thing. Much of public sentiment and political expression is behind it. Bells should be ringing in the streets. Meanwhile, export markets aren't going to vanish overnight.

Of course, nations can't dictate to each other how they deal with their transitions.

 

[brihard]

Info’s pretty sketchy today, but it looks reasonably likely that:

• U.S. Navy got vessels into the Persian Gulf and helped escort to U.S. flagged vessels out
• Iran fired on some civilian shipping, no reports I’ve seen of casualties or major damage
• CENTCOM reports firing on a number of small Iranian boats
• Iran struck the UAE’s port of Fujairah, which, significantly, can be accessed without entering the Strait of Hormuz.

I think we’re into an increasingly frank and direct contest of capability and credibility regarding whether the Trait is open to shipping or not.

I suspect the U.S. will get some ships out, but in the near term we won’t see any go back in, or any confidence in merchant shipping that they can resume transition the strait.

I also suspect that if the U.S. continues efforts, we’ll see more economic hits on Gulf states.

I also suspect that if Iran continues striking shipping or, especially, if they come close to or succeed in hitting any U.S. Navy vessels, there will be at least one solid wave of significant attacks on Iran.

Not that I’m a genius prognosticator or anything, this is all super obvious. But I figured an update on the day and some superficial ‘so what’ is as merited.

Oil continues to slowly climb.

 

[ytz]

Oil continues to slowly climb.

The fun is just starting:

The moment of truth could come next month. Analysts at JPMorgan said in a note Tuesday commercial inventories in OECD countries will hit “operational minimums” sometime between May 9 and May 30, “at which point price increases become exponential rather than linear.”

After the war ends, the oil supply chain needs time to restart. Ports will take two months to reopen, and tanker crew will wait two to three weeks to feel safe enough to travel through the strait again. JPMorgan also estimated reviving oil production will take four months to reach 99% of capacity.

Top oil analyst guarantees that the next few months ‘will be an ongoing, absolute disaster’ even if the Strait of Hormuz opens tomorrow

"Over the coming months, this is going to unfortunately deteriorate badly. We're locked into that."

finance.yahoo.com

 

[daftandbarmy]

The hopefully not ironically named 'Project Freedom'

What we know about Trump's 'Project Freedom' in Strait of Hormuz​

President Donald Trump has announced the US will help "guide" ships that have been stranded by Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The Strait has remained largely blocked since the US and Israel launched air strikes on Iran - and Tehran responded by blocking the crucial waterway through which 20% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas is meant to pass freely.

The day after the announcement, limited fighting appears to have resumed, with the US striking several Iranian small boats and Iran reportedly launching a series of attacks of its own.

What we know about Trump's 'Project Freedom' in Strait of Hormuz

What does the operation entail and could it lead to a resumption of hostilities?

www.bbc.com

 

[ytz]

Trump has done in a couple of months what three decades of climate alarmist eco-zealotry failed to achieve.

I agree. He should get a Novel Prize for teaching the world what cleantech advocates have been saying about energy security and the rotten geopolitics of petrostates for two decades.

Every EV sold and every solar panel on a roof is one less ruble, rial, dinar, dinar, bolivar to the Ayatollahs, MBS, MBZ, the Al Thanis, Putin, Maduro/Rodriguez, etc.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

I agree. He should get a Novel Prize for teaching the world what cleantech advocates have been saying about energy security and the rotten geopolitics of petrostates for two decades.

Every EV sold and every solar panel on a roof is one less ruble, rial, dinar, dinar, bolivar to the Ayatollahs, MBS, MBZ, the Al Thanis, Putin, Maduro/Rodriguez, etc.

And one Yuan to Xi, pick your poison. All my feedstock and most of the refined fuels come from Western Canada.

Also I pay road taxes and don't cost the government an incentive. With lack of road taxes and the buying incentives for EV, they are a drain on the government coffers. Time to level the playing field, road taxes payable by km based on vehicle weight to match that of a ICE vehicle and do away with the incentives. By now if they can't stand on their onw feet, then the consumer don't want them.

 

[dapaterson]

And one Yuan to Xi, pick your poison. All my feedstock and most of the refined fuels come from Western Canada.

Also I pay road taxes and don't cost the government an incentive. With lack of road taxes and the buying incentives for EV, they are a drain on the government coffers. Time to level the playing field, road taxes payable by km based on vehicle weight to match that of a ICE vehicle and do away with the incentives. By now if they can't stand on their onw feet, then the consumer don't want them.

Only if we start road taxes for ICE vehicles based on weight.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Two US Flagged ships escorted through the Straits

U.S. Secures First US-Flagged Ships Through Hormuz as Iran Warns of Attack

The U.S. military said two U.S. Navy guided-missile destroyers had entered the Gulf to break an Iranian blockade and that two U.S. merchant ships had transited the Strait of Hormuz, after Iran said it had prevented a U.S. warship entering the Gulf.

gcaptain.com

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Only if we start road taxes for ICE vehicles based on weight.

Weight = more fuel = more taxes

So indirectly it does that