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Trump administration 2024-2028

Czech_pivo said:
Understood.
Just know that the US's current output is based on old/played out fields that have more good days behind them than in front of them.

Have read reports that their production will be around 2m bpd less in 10-12yrs than it is today.
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Hence Venezuela…

Altair said:
What collapses first, the AI bubble or the salt caverns?
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Collapse is generally a myth. They pump water in to raise the oil to nominal pump out levels. Oil being less dense floats and leaves water/brine below, so overall level in the cavern stays relatively constant…+/-
 
Good2Golf said:
Hence Venezuela…



Collapse is generally a myth. They pump water in to raise the oil to nominal pump out levels. Oil being less dense floats and leaves water/brine below, so overall level in the cavern stays relatively constant…+/-
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One key issue: Successive administrations and Congress have pumped oil out of the reserve dozens of times through sales to raise funds, as well as emergency releases. But the stockpiles were initially designed for up to five full drawdowns, and the frequent releases are degrading the sites’ integrity, experts say.
The reserve has experienced 16 major equipment failures since 2013, including of raw water and brine disposal piping. Some sites have seen well deformation and hydraulic failures. In May 2024, a well ruptured unexpectedly at a Texas site, causing the loss of as much as 400,000 barrels, the GAO report said.
The deterioration limits how much crude can be pumped into and out of the caverns. As of December, the DOE estimated 2.7 million barrels a day could be drawn out of the 4.4 million barrels it was designed to handle, according to GAO. About 440,000 barrels a day can be injected, out of the 785,000 barrels the initial design provided for. That means not all of the oil in the reserve might be accessible when needed, and replenishing the stocks is a slower process than it should be, experts said.
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Doesn't seem like a myth to me.
 
Altair said:


Doesn't seem like a myth to me.
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You’ll note that’s notably more an issue of the pumping infrastructure which includes geomorphic structures near the wellhead, not the underlying structure of the caverns themselves. Also the rate of daily drawdown. That said, there is varying opinion on where the “irreversible damage” tipping point is…ranging from DoE recently saying 70MMB is the lower limit, while others still hold 250MMB to be the safety limit. Like ‘Mr.Global’ Matt Randolph, I too would like to see a knowledgeable technical paper on what the true safe low level of the SPR caverns is.
 
Altair said:
What collapses first, the AI bubble or the salt caverns?
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I understood this to be a problem of head pressure reduction given that you could be pumping from a mile deep. In order to maintain head pressure water must brought in to raise the oil up.
 
Nvlgzr said:
I feel that the polling is reflecting voter moods but what is being ignored is that the electoral maps in many states has being drastically changed to tilt in favour of republicans.
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And the democrats retaliated. Even more importantly, the electoral map means squat for senate elections.
 
FSTO said:
Subtle is not a trait practiced by this administration.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2087172343969771810
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nobody knew that subtle has a B in it, i was the first discover it. Big strong man came up to me with tears in his eyes and said "thank you sir for telling us about the B in dumb, can you tell us about other words with secret B's in them". Secret Bs are everywhere, mexican bees are forming caravans to invade the country. -trump /s
 
MrWhyt said:
nobody knew that subtle has a B in it, i was the first discover it. Big strong man came up to me with tears in his eyes and said "thank you sir for telling us about the B in dumb, can you tell us about other words with secret B's in them". Secret Bs are everywhere, mexican bees are forming caravans to invade the country. -trump /s
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I'm old, this one kind of flew over my head. Am I being mocked?
 
www.cnbc.com

Why the historic U.S.-Japan intervention has failed to halt the yen’s slide

The Japanese yen has erased about half of the gains from an unprecedented U.S.-Japan intervention less than two weeks ago.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com

So Japan is desperate to not have its currency drop below 160 yen to the dollar, so much so that its willing to sell US treasuries to defend the currency.

The US, with its high yields already, is desperate for the Japanese to not sell its USD holdings, so much so its willing to sell Euros to defend the yen.

And the markets are calling the bluff.

The Japanese yen has erased about half the gains from a historic U.S.-Japan intervention less than two weeks ago, as the fundamental forces that have pressured the currency to multi-decade lows prove increasingly resilient against short-term measures.

Japan's currency is currently trading at over 159 per dollar, after having strengthened to 155 in the days following the intervention after it crossed 163.

At the heart of the problem is the gap in returns between Japan and the U.S. With Japanese borrowing costs still far below those in the U.S. and other markets, prompting investors to borrow cheaply in yen and invest in higher-yielding assets, also known as the classic carry trade.
The backdrop has become even tougher as higher Treasury yields and elevated oil prices, which pose a particular problem for energy-importing Japan, restore some of the macro forces favoring the dollar.
He argues that intervention has succeeded in reducing speculative excess and raising the risks for traders betting against the yen, even if it has not eliminated the underlying yield advantage supporting the dollar.
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Things are about to get really uncomfortable for both nations.
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