Pipelines, energy and natural resources

[brihard]

The CAF has been making efforts to fix recruiting and retention problems since 2015.. making efforts and being successful are very different things.

I'm not suggesting Churchill is impossible to staff with workers, I'm simply suggesting that hand waving away personnel issues, and more importantly family issues is a bad idea. If we want Churchill to be a year-round port, we need year-round services. Year-round services generally mean families... Families don't like their kids being eaten on the walk to sschool...

Polar bears aren't other bears. They are truly "monsters" in the way our ancestors imagined them.

I’d suggest that the very rare polar bear attacks (and they are rare) isnMt really the barrier to getting things going in Churchill. Rather a matter of professionals may not want to move their family there simply due to the isolation and limited amenities writ large. But probably there’s some value in learning how staffing is managed by the usual players in northern communities: the medical system, school system, and RCMP. Likely the natural resource sector could also be looked at; I donmt know what trades or staffing models are needed to run northern mines or other work camps, but probably the answer is rotation in and out with alternative crews, and lots of money.

That may work against the business case for the port… But maybe the port will be championed and subsidized by government regardless of the business case.

 

[Czech_pivo]

I’d suggest that the very rare polar bear attacks (and they are rare) isnMt really the barrier to getting things going in Churchill. Rather a matter of professionals may not want to move their family there simply due to the isolation and limited amenities writ large. But probably there’s some value in learning how staffing is managed by the usual players in northern communities: the medical system, school system, and RCMP. Likely the natural resource sector could also be looked at; I donmt know what trades or staffing models are needed to run northern mines or other work camps, but probably the answer is rotation in and out with alternative crews, and lots of money.

That may work against the business case for the port… But maybe the port will be championed and subsidized by government regardless of the business case.

I expect that we'll learn more over the next 8-14 days after the Investment Summit in Toronto. If they can make a solid business to the investment powers that be, we'll hear about it. If they are unable, then I don't expect to hear much about Churchill until the next summit in Sept 2027.

 

[brihard]

I expect that we'll learn more over the next 8-14 days after the Investment Summit in Toronto. If they can make a solid business to the investment powers that be, we'll hear about it. If they are unable, then I don't expect to hear much about Churchill until the next summit in Sept 2027.

I don’t see Churchill going forward without the government taking on much of the financial risk. They may elect to do so on an ‘if you built it they will come’ basis vis a vis export transportation infrastructure. That would be one of those instances where a conscious choice is made to accept economic inefficiency in order to build redundancy and resilience.

I will also be looking at the port of Churchill not in isolation but in the larger context of broader economic, civil and military expansion up north. I’ll want to see how it ties in with larger infrastructure and what other projects might end up exporting out of it (if any).

 

[Czech_pivo]

I don’t see Churchill going forward without the government taking on much of the financial risk. They may elect to do so on an ‘if you built it they will come’ basis vis a vis export transportation infrastructure. That would be one of those instances where a conscious choice is made to accept economic inefficiency in order to build redundancy and resilience.

I will also be looking at the port of Churchill not in isolation but in the larger context of broader economic, civil and military expansion up north. I’ll want to see how it ties in with larger infrastructure and what other projects might end up exporting out of it (if any).

All very true.
The Feds could backstop some of the needed infrastructure to allow outside money to build out certain other projects.
Putting in some CAF/CGC infrastructure, fully manned 12 months of the year would allow private investors to piggyback off that.

 

[Kirkhill]

Alberta mulls creating Crown corporation to boost natural gas pipeline development, lure AI data centres

Province risks missing out on the centres partly because of insufficient transportation capacity, cabinet briefing document notes

www.theglobeandmail.com

Alberta could spend billions on public gas pipelines to fuel data centre boom, leaked document suggests

The document was presented at a Sept. 10 cabinet meeting by Energy Minister Brian Jean. It lays out an expansive plan to expand the province's natural gas network by bringing it under public ownership.

www.nationalobserver.com

Governments have financed roads, railways, canals, ports, airports and pipelines. Money is recouped from tolls and taxes. Often profitably.

Often governments get involved if the commercial risks are considered too great. In Canada's case much of that risk is created by governments themselves. It doesn't seem unreasonable that governments take on responsibiliity for mitigating some of that risk through direct investment.

 

[RangerRay]

I’d suggest that the very rare polar bear attacks (and they are rare) isnMt really the barrier to getting things going in Churchill. Rather a matter of professionals may not want to move their family there simply due to the isolation and limited amenities writ large. But probably there’s some value in learning how staffing is managed by the usual players in northern communities: the medical system, school system, and RCMP. Likely the natural resource sector could also be looked at; I donmt know what trades or staffing models are needed to run northern mines or other work camps, but probably the answer is rotation in and out with alternative crews, and lots of money.

That may work against the business case for the port… But maybe the port will be championed and subsidized by government regardless of the business case.

Polar bear attacks/damage are not as uncommon in Churchill as you might think. The Province spends a considerable amount of resources for a town of less than 1000 people with no road access to mitigate polar bear conflicts and to keep them out of the community. This is mostly because the town is on the route the bears come to get on the ice when the Bay freezes over. This isn’t like keeping grizzlies out of Banff.

The other part is correct though. The unemployment rate in Churchill is about 1.8%. So basically almost everyone who lived there has a job. These projects will require more people to move there and fewer people are willing to to leave the Big Smoke than they were in the past. Amenities will need to be improved, access improved and made more affordable (air and rail = $$$), and future workers will need to be properly incentivized. As well, even more resources will be needed for polar bear conflict mitigation.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Polar bear attacks/damage are not as uncommon in Churchill as you might think. The Province spends a considerable amount of resources for a town of less than 1000 people with no road access to mitigate polar bear conflicts and to keep them out of the community. This is mostly because the town is on the route the bears come to get on the ice when the Bay freezes over. This isn’t like keeping grizzlies out of Banff.

The other part is correct though. The unemployment rate in Churchill is about 1.8%. So basically almost everyone who lived there has a job. These projects will require more people to move there and fewer people are willing to to leave the Big Smoke than they were in the past. Amenities will need to be improved, access improved and made more affordable (air and rail = $$$), and future workers will need to be properly incentivized. As well, even more resources will be needed for polar bear conflict mitigation.

I didn't realise that Churchill was that small! I thought it was around 5k, not less than 1k.

 

[RangerRay]

I didn't realise that Churchill was that small! I thought it was around 5k, not less than 1k.

Yeah it’s tiny. It fluctuates seasonally, so I think it might get to 2k at most for part of the year. No one is there if they’re out of work indefinitely though.

 

[childs56]

How did they get people to move to Fort McMurray.........pay more money. Then add infrastructure that supports good work life balance. Bring in entertainment. Improve the road between for travel. Keep paying more money.

People work for money.

 

[YZT580]

People work for money.

At least in Churchill you can actually get out and do a bit of hunting, fishing or just plain wandering around whilst respecting the Polar Bears consider the workers out on the Hibernia oil platforms. They have a gym, and a library etc. but there is very little spare room to wander yet there are, as of 4 o'clock at any rate, no advertised positions available and that is not unusual. Chids56 said it all. Pay them and they will come.

 

[Kirkhill]

How did they get people to move to Fort McMurray.........pay more money. Then add infrastructure that supports good work life balance. Bring in entertainment. Improve the road between for travel. Keep paying more money.

People work for money.

A good airfield reduces the need for roads if you are only supporting a small population.

 

[Furniture]

I’d suggest that the very rare polar bear attacks (and they are rare) isnMt really the barrier to getting things going in Churchill. Rather a matter of professionals may not want to move their family there simply due to the isolation and limited amenities writ large. But probably there’s some value in learning how staffing is managed by the usual players in northern communities: the medical system, school system, and RCMP. Likely the natural resource sector could also be looked at; I donmt know what trades or staffing models are needed to run northern mines or other work camps, but probably the answer is rotation in and out with alternative crews, and lots of money.

That may work against the business case for the port… But maybe the port will be championed and subsidized by government regardless of the business case.

I'm not suggesting that polar bears are the primary reason people don't/won't want to live there. I was just highlighting that they are a very real problem, and nothing like the other bears most people have some degree of experience with.

People generally don't think about what the reality of living with a very real monster is like, until they have to do it. I never seriously considered it until I was in Alert standing in an open field in the dark, while the station was on lockdown for a polar bear alert.

 

[Kirkhill]

Cities need ports.
Ports do not need cities.

In fact for resource industries it is better if there is no competition for space and the number of people is limited. Fewer complaints

Belledunes - 1325 - 100 vessels, 2,000,000 tonnes
Placentia Bay - 3,289
Bruderheim - 1308
Hardisty - 548

Voisey Bay - 0 population, 1100 workers
Deception Bay - 0 population, 160 to 400 workers
Burnaby Oil Terminal - 180
Thunder Bay Grain Terminals - 200

Prince Rupert - 12,300
Kodiak - 5,200
Dutch Harbor - 4,200
Longview - 38,362

Cushing - 8390

Prince Pupert handles 15% of the cargo through Vancouver with 0.5% of the population.

Putting in an oil terminal, a gas terminal, and adding to the bulk handling terminals will add a few humdred permanent jobs but a lot of revenue.


....

Longyearbyen on Svalbard has a population of about 1200 Norwegians and 1200 people from 50 other countries including the Phillipines. It has never had a permanent indigenous population prior to the 20th century when coal mining started.

 

[Kirkhill]

Europe outspends entire 2025 Russian Arctic gas bill in just 8 months

Two European companies dominate the Arctic shipping network: Scotland's Seapeak and the Greek-linked shipping firm Dynagas. Together, vessels tied to these two European companies managed 72% of all Yamal LNG exports. #EuropeNews

www.euronews.com

10 BCAD in 8 months to the enemy,
Would the Europeans invest that kind of money in Canada?

3 years for a pipeline and another year of revenues to buy a fleet of ice-strengthened carriers.

 

[RangerRay]

If you want people and their families to move to places like Churchill, people will need proper incentives, i.e. pay and benies, there needs to be proper amenities and recreational outlets for them to want to stay, and access needs to improve so they can buy goods at the store for a reasonable price and get away for a break. And polar bears are a live issue there.

Also, while I think the community is looking forward to the development, I don’t think they would be excited if it just ended up living next to a work camp for temporary workers.

 

[Czech_pivo]

If you want people and their families to move to places like Churchill, people will need proper incentives, i.e. pay and benies, there needs to be proper amenities and recreational outlets for them to want to stay, and access needs to improve so they can buy goods at the store for a reasonable price and get away for a break. And polar bears are a live issue there.

Also, while I think the community is looking forward to the development, I don’t think they would be excited if it just ended up living next to a work camp for temporary workers.

That would be a disaster - drugs, alcohol and prostitution - the trifecta of doom.

 

[YZT580]

A good airfield reduces the need for roads if you are only supporting a small population.

at 2,173 round trip from Toronto I don't see much reduction. The residents were pretty much stranded until they got the tracks repaired. And shipping things in via air is prohibitive and the ship only sails once or twice a year so you better know how to plan your Christmas presents a long time in advance and hop that the kids don't lose interest. But for all that, the few that I know who have moved up to Churchill and beyond (a couple ended up in Rankin Inlet) don't even like coming south for a holiday.

 

[childs56]

According to the Tourism reports, Tourists spent $99 million directly and indirectly into Manitoba’s GDP in 2023 related to their visit to Churchill Mb.
What's a million here or there to control a pesky white bear that is misunderstood. Who just wants a nice warm place to sleep and the occasional human taco.

That is insane how much Churchill attracts in dollar value for the overall economy for Mb in tourism dollars. Which means it has a good market already. Even though much of that money is spent around the province. Still that is pretty impressive.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Laird tunderin' jaysus, bye...

Skyrocketing oil price brings in $500M to N.L, says finance minister, helping fight deficit​

Oil hovering around $100 US per barrel, as N.L.'s offshore production up​

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/nl-oil-prices-deficit-9.7337076

 

[Brad Sallows]

Laird tunderin' jaysus, bye...

Skyrocketing oil price brings in $500M to N.L, says finance minister, helping fight deficit​

High oil prices benefit some people. A weak dollar benefits some people. So it goes.