Our North - SSE Policy Update Megathread

[Oldgateboatdriver]

Pretty sure the Global 6000 series is mostly built and all assembled in Ontario, not Quebec.

And it's not subsidized - it's a money maker for Bombardier.

 

[ueo]

That said a lot of big projections mentioned, tac hel replacement, replace and expand the sub fleet, long range land missiles, upgrade or replacement our of Tanks and LAV's

Blair bombast and bamboozelry!

 

[tomydoom]

Pretty sure the Global 6000 series is mostly built and all assembled in Ontario, not Quebec.

And it's not subsidized - it's a money maker for Bombardier.

I stand corrected. The point still remains that it may be politically desirable to be seen doing something for a Quebec based company.

 

[Rifleman62]

You can bet the government will compile every nickel spent (wages, consultants, paper, computer, etc) for its "exploring" into the Defence defense budget for obvious reasons.

Do you think the pers involved in exploration tasks will receive the new Explore Medal?

Running around in circles with no results for long periods could become a mental health issue.

 

[captloadie]

Perhaps the reason the verbiage "explore" is linked to other factors, like not wanting to tie the government to either a specific course of action, or a specific dollar amount for something that is unknown at the time because the project is still in its infancy. Would it not look foolish to say DND will procure a specific capability, only to find out that the cost comes no where near the benefit when it gets to the definition phase? It gives everyone some wiggle room, and the ability to get their ducks in a row, while providing just enough policy coverage to justify expending some funds in starting a project.

Edit: I need to add that I don't support this being the way business is done, just that this is likely the mindset of most governments in power.

 

[Rifleman62]

What you posted is government procrastination.

 

[dimsum]

What you posted is government procrastination.

Absolutely, and how govts around the world work unless pressed.

 

[Good2Golf]

I stand corrected. The point still remains that it may be politically desirable to be seen doing something for a Quebec based company.

SAAB isn’t beholden to Bombardier. That radar (or earlier variants) could fly (has flown) on Embraer and Gulfstreams as well.

 

[Czech_pivo]

I guess that depends on one’s definition of what an AWACS is…

I hear that they are exploring buy a fleet of used 737 Super Max's at a real good price and retro fitting them.

 

[Kirkhill]

This article seems relevant - An army in flux.

The State of the Army 2024

The cancellation of a scout helicopter might signal a new era of agility.

www.defenseone.com

The State of the Army 2024​

The cancellation of a scout helicopter might signal a new era of agility.​

Reiteration of points made many other places - situation evolving rapidly and necessity of working with what is immediately available commercially

Gen. Randy George axed the Future Attack Reconnaissance Aircraft, or FARA, to accommodate major changes in warfare—in particular, those seen in Ukraine—that demand new tech such as loitering munitions and drones.

“We are learning from the battlefield—especially in Ukraine—that aerial reconnaissance has fundamentally changed,” George said in a press release. “Sensors and weapons mounted on a variety of unmanned systems and in space are more ubiquitous, further reaching, and more inexpensive than ever before.”

..., the Army is pushing harder than ever to exploit cutting-edge, often commercially-derived technologies that have brought clarity to the fog of war. But it’s also taking an old-school approach to munitions: working hard to buy more of them, from 155mm artillery shells to advanced missiles.

... in its most advanced training centers: the National Training Center in California and the Joint Readiness Training Center in Louisiana.
.... Both OPFORs are rapidly absorbing lessons from Ukraine and seeking advantage through a wide variety of cheap, commercially-available tools.

An Army soldier arriving at either center might be tracked before she knows it, her cell phone acting as a lone digital light amid desert or forest. OPFOR’s cheap quadcopters might then pick up the signal and drop a fake grenade on them.

Should OPFOR choose to hold their fire, they could use the drone to track the soldier to their base, then use commercial satellite footage or an AI-powered analysis of signal patterns to map out the command post and its connections to others.
They could then choose to isolate the base with powerful jammers or level it with a simulated missile.
It isn’t all high-tech though —the near-constant artillery barrages faced by Ukrainian forces also highlight the continued importance of low-tech explosives. So both centers greet trainees with a renewed emphasis on artillery, forcing them to re-learn the importance of digging fighting positions deep into the earth.

Commercial tech
George sees the work of OPFOR and other units experimenting with tech as a path for the Army as whole: greater use of commercial technology, combined with the flexibility to adopt or ditch new gear as needed.
Conversations with OPFOR and soldiers at the National Training Center and Joint Readiness Training Center has convinced the chief of staff to “double down on some of the things that we're doing like on [drones],” he said in an interview with Defense One in January.
Key to that strategy is something George calls “transforming in contact”: pushing out new, often commercial tech to units to have them test it out in realistic training.
The January exercises, for example, saw the Army’s first use of ATAK— cheap, Android-based mapping and communications software—across all echelons of command. It’s also increasingly common to see Army units deploy Starlink communications devices, a commercial satellite technology used on both sides of the Ukrainian front.
George’s plan is a departure from how the Army normally fields the equipment, in which major contractors duke it out for years before a single platform is rolled out to hundreds of thousands of soldiers. That system, though, is also what led to the service fielding drones that struggled to fly in the rain.
As one example of the new equipment strategy, the Army has requested $25 million this year to buy commercial drones for troops. Rather than routing the drones through the lengthy procurement process, the money for the drones will instead be classified as “operation and maintenance” funds.
This designation makes acquisition of the drones simpler, theoretically allowing unit commanders to acquire the drones directly.

Changes include trying to keep ahead of the other guy who can also buy the best commercially available technology. Purchasing Best Available Technology means catching up to the other guy today. There is still a need to be able to beat that technology tomorrow.

Major acquisitions
The Army’s transformation isn’t all cheap fixes from the commercial world.
Alongside Starlink terminals and Android software, the service is also planning a raft of investments in robotics, loitering munitions, counter-drone weapons, far-seeing spy tech, and far-reaching missiles to match.
Although many programs are only just started, the Army is moving quickly by fielding systems in a year or two rather than the nearly decade-long process it often takes.

Long Range Munitions of all sorts, novel and traditional.

The Low Altitude Stalking and Strike Ordnance program is slated to field loitering munitions to infantry units in 2024 in an iterative process, the Army Futures Command’s chief, Gen. James Rainey, said late last year.
Various types of launched effects—what the Army calls drones launched from helicopters—will enter production by next fiscal year, officials said at last week’s AUSA Global Force conference.

Medium-range drones, which could include loitering munitions, are also being tested this year and will be produced in fiscal year 2025.
Short-range drones will be tested in fiscal year 2025 and produced in fiscal year 2026,
and longer-range drones will be tested in fiscal year 2026 and fielded in fiscal year 2027.

and developing long-range cannon shells. With Ukraine and Russia using tens of thousands of shells per day and wargames of a Taiwan-China fight showing a high need for missiles, the Army is also re-focusing on munitions to pair with its high-tech sensors.

Army efforts include a rapid increase in production of 155mm shells to aid Ukraine, with 100,000 a month promised—as long as Congress passes a Ukraine aid supplemental bill.

The Army is also boosting missile production of Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (GMLRS) and Patriot anti-air missiles through multi-year buys, a mechanism that incentivizes manufacturers to invest in production.
Newer missiles are also coming online. In December, the Army received its first batch of Precision Strike Missiles, which will replace the older GMLRS missiles.

In an increasingly tense globe, many of these munitions are playing an active role as soon as they leave the factory floor. The Army has upped purchase of Coyote drone interceptors, which are already knocking down enemy drones in the Middle East, while 155mm shells are heading to Ukraine.

This bit sounds a lot like it could be a GlobalEye

Other efforts include packing business jets with spyware, a new organization focusing on long-range intelligence-gathering,

Force structure
Thanks in part to lessons from Ukraine and elsewhere, the Army is also changing the design of its forces, including by planning to add multiple new anti-air units in a nod to both the threat of drones and the belief that the U.S. is not guaranteed air dominance in future wars.

The redesign of its force structure also reflects a less comfortable reality: fewer and fewer Americans are choosing to become soldiers. The force redesign announced in February is in part to rationalize a force designed to field an Army of 494,000 soldiers, but which in reality only has 445,000.
At the same time, the Army is hoping to push recruiting up through an intensive recruiting campaign, which includes new ads, launching a trial program to make recruiting a separate career path, and targeting older recruits.
The Army is seeing an uptick so far over the same time last year, George told Stars and Stripes in February. Still, it hit just 74% percent of its goal in the first fiscal quarter of 2024, from Oct. 1 and Dec. 31.
Those soldiers aren’t just important for staffing out the Army’s formations—they’re also key to the soldier-centric Army innovation George wants to see. The more qualified, tech-centric soldiers the Army can attract, the more feedback the Army will get for their “transforming in contact mission.”
“We are going to get our best innovation from our soldiers, working with [product] developers,” George said in Defense One’s State of the Army interview. “Our soldiers are really innovative, they will figure out how to make things work.”

Related articles
The State of the Air Force 2024
The State of the Navy 2024
The State of the Marine Corps 2024
The State of the Space Force 2024

If I put all those pieces together and then look at "Our North" with its multiple "Will Explore" categories I sense a considerable degree of overlap. If the Americans (and the Brits and Aussies among others) are struggling to keep up with developments and separating wheat from chaff then it is not implausible that a Canadian statement of purpose should adopt a max flex posture at this time.

Also, wrt the 2% of GDP and only establishing a 1.76% upper limit then that leaves 0.24% of GDP potentially available to fund all of those things being explored.

Now ...

the big question is: Trust. Do we trust that the money has been set aside and that development is proceeding at pace?

 

[Kirkhill]

Global Eye - The Swedes were/are looking at buying two GlobalEyes for 710 MUSD - That is about twice what "Our North" is setting aside for "AWACS" .

Current operators[edit]​

• United Arab Emirates Air Force: Currently operates 3 GlobalEye aircraft with an additional 2 on order scheduled for delivery in 2025 at a total cost of 23 billion SEK.[30] In November 2023, SAAB announced the maiden flight of the fifth and final GlobalEye for the UAE air force. [31]

Future operators[edit]​

• Swedish Air Force: On 30 June 2022, SAAB and the Swedish Defence Materiel Administration (FMV) signed a contract for the acquisition of 2 GlobalEye aircraft, to be designated S 106 in Swedish service. The deal is valued at 7.3 billion SEK (US$710 million) and deliveries are scheduled for 2027. The contract also includes the option to procure up to 2 additional GlobalEye aircraft.[32][33]

Potential operators[edit]​

• French Air Force: Presented by SAAB as a replacement for its existing Boeing E-3 Sentry fleet. In January 2024 Sweden and France signed a renewed strategic innovation partnership which among other things emphasized the willingness of both countries to increase cooperation in the field of air surveillance.[34][35]
• Hellenic Air Force: Presented by SAAB as a replacement for its existing Erieye fleet.[36][37]

Poland bought two of the Erieye systems (as mounted on the Global Express) complete with Saab turbo-props, for 58 MUSD

Poland is going ahead with its planned purchase of two airborne early warning and control aircraft (AEW&C) from Swedish defense manufacturer Saab.

The deal, worth 600 million Swedish kronor ($58 million), will see the company deliver its 340 AEW&C aircraft equipped with the cutting-edge Erieye radar to the Polish Air Force.

The contract also covers the provision of associated ground equipment and in-country logistics and support services, according to Saab.

Negotiations for the multi-million purchase began in May, with local industry observers initially speculating it was the GlobalEye aircraft being considered to fill Warsaw’s AEW&C capability gap.

Poland Buys Swedish Early Warning Aircraft for $58M

Poland is going ahead with its planned purchase of two airborne early warning and control aircraft (AEW&C) from Saab.

www.thedefensepost.com

Could the CAF lease the aircraft bare bones from Bombardier and have the Radar and kit mounted?

 

[Good2Golf]

Could the CAF lease the aircraft bare bones from Bombardier and have the Radar and kit mounted?

The CAF/GoC couldn’t do anything as cost effective as get E-7s via FMS and spend the difference that would have been vomitted spent on a Made-in-Canada solution on social programs and STILL be ahead…

 

[Kirkhill]

Canada GDP 2023 - Approx 2,400 BCAD

NATO floor of 2%
Govt target of 1.76%
Uncommitted difference of 0.24%
0.24% of 2,400 BCAD = 5.8 BCAD per annum
20% of 5.8 BCAD = 1.2 BCAD per annum capital

So, giving the government the benefit of the doubt and allowing for growth towards the 2% mark then all of that "Will Explore" stuff could be funded on a 5 year timeline with

5x 4.6 BCAD = 23 BCAD in additional ops and maintenance over 5 years
5x 1.2 BCAD = 6 BCAD in additional capital over 5 years.

Over 20 years we are looking at 92 BCAD additional ops and maintenance (potentially including ammunition and drones) and 24 BCAD in new capital.

Potentially. Maybe. Possibly. Could be.

 

[Cloud Cover]

I think it’s so cool that they are going to spend money to make our totally helicopter capable AOPS ships actually capable of landing and launching helicopters. The rad Libs have really got this defence thing figured out! .
They rock!!

 

[Kirkhill]

I don't think the exercise helped much.

Opinion: Canada’s new defence policy commits to exploring, instead of committing

The government’s new policy proposes only ‘exploring’ many new capabilities, adding up to a failure to meet NATO spending targets

www.theglobeandmail.com

Globe editorial: The Liberals are sleepwalking through an increasingly dangerous world

The defence review bumps up spending but does not come to grips with Canada’s growing strategic challenges

www.theglobeandmail.com

Tasha Kheiriddin: Don't be fooled, Trudeau doesn't care about defence

He'd prefer to bribe Canadians with their own money

nationalpost.com

Michael Higgins: Defence update is a bold statement, but Trudeau needs to follow through

It puts focus on the Arctic, shows a commitment to meeting NATO targets and looks to build a more resilient military

nationalpost.com

John Ivison: The new Liberal defence policy's in no hurry to face dangerous global realities

Despite noting increased threats, this is a business-as-usual document, with most of the spending planned over a 20-year time horizon.

nationalpost.com

Trudeau government announces billions more for the military — but still won’t meet NATO’s spending target

Canada's new military spending of $8 billion over five years is focused on delivering new gear and on trying to recruit thousands of new soldiers, technicians and others to the

www.thestar.com

 

[Quirky]

I don't think the exercise helped much.

If Trump wins in November, things could get interesting!

 

[suffolkowner]

The best or the most interesting part I found was the idea of a sustained AFV commitment

Canada will explore establishing a light armoured vehicle production program to replenish our fleet while also enabling industry to invest in a sustainable defence production capacity to support Canada and our NATO allies.

 

[dimsum]

If Trump wins in November, things could get interesting!

“Interesting” is one way to describe it. Maybe more in the “Chinese curse” sense.

 

[daftandbarmy]

We're standing out from the crowd!

Canada stuck in NATO penalty box through 2030​

Canada is the only country in the defensive bloc that’s lagging on both the 2-percent figure and another target: spending 20 percent of defense spending on equipment.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/09/canada-nato-2030-penalty-00151064

 

[Navy_Pete]

I think it’s so cool that they are going to spend money to make our totally helicopter capable AOPS ships actually capable of landing and launching helicopters. The rad Libs have really got this defence thing figured out! .
They rock!!

Don't forget safely, that's an important caveat. Never go full RCN!

Known defects from delivery still not fixed (and still being built like that) include simple things like big gaps in flight deck netter and a railing that doesn't fold down, on top of a bunch of equipment not actually fit for purpose and incompatible with NVGs. The SHOL report is a laugh or cry kind of read.

I don't care how much you talk around it, if someone falls over the side in bunker gear through the big f* off gap in the netting, they are dead.

Pretty shameful shit really, but to be fair the in service folks have been trying to spool up an ISSC while trying to fix propulsion engines that didn't work, cranes that are failing, lead in the drinking water, fire suppression systems that wouldn't have worked, etc so trying to get a new capability sorted the ship wasn't delivered with hasn't been able to get up the priority list yet.